WorldWideScience

Sample records for model sensitivity tests

  1. Sensitivity of wetland methane emissions to model assumptions: application and model testing against site observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Meng

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Methane emissions from natural wetlands and rice paddies constitute a large proportion of atmospheric methane, but the magnitude and year-to-year variation of these methane sources are still unpredictable. Here we describe and evaluate the integration of a methane biogeochemical model (CLM4Me; Riley et al., 2011 into the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4CN in order to better explain spatial and temporal variations in methane emissions. We test new functions for soil pH and redox potential that impact microbial methane production in soils. We also constrain aerenchyma in plants in always-inundated areas in order to better represent wetland vegetation. Satellite inundated fraction is explicitly prescribed in the model, because there are large differences between simulated fractional inundation and satellite observations, and thus we do not use CLM4-simulated hydrology to predict inundated areas. A rice paddy module is also incorporated into the model, where the fraction of land used for rice production is explicitly prescribed. The model is evaluated at the site level with vegetation cover and water table prescribed from measurements. Explicit site level evaluations of simulated methane emissions are quite different than evaluating the grid-cell averaged emissions against available measurements. Using a baseline set of parameter values, our model-estimated average global wetland emissions for the period 1993–2004 were 256 Tg CH4 yr−1 (including the soil sink and rice paddy emissions in the year 2000 were 42 Tg CH4 yr−1. Tropical wetlands contributed 201 Tg CH4 yr−1, or 78% of the global wetland flux. Northern latitude (>50 N systems contributed 12 Tg CH4 yr−1. However, sensitivity studies show a large range (150–346 Tg CH4 yr−1 in predicted global methane emissions (excluding emissions from rice paddies. The large range is

  2. Sensitivity testing practice on pre-processing parameters in hard and soft coupled modeling

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    Z. Ignaszak

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper pays attention to the problem of practical applicability of coupled modeling with the use of hard and soft models types and necessity of adapted to that models data base possession. The data base tests results for cylindrical 30 mm diameter casting made of AlSi7Mg alloy were presented. In simulation tests that were applied the Calcosoft system with CAFE (Cellular Automaton Finite Element module. This module which belongs to „multiphysics” models enables structure prediction of complete casting with division of columnar and equiaxed crystals zones of -phase. Sensitivity tests of coupled model on the particular values parameters changing were made. On these basis it was determined the relations of CET (columnar-to-equaiaxed transition zone position influence. The example of virtual structure validation based on real structure with CET zone location and grain size was shown.

  3. Results From a Pressure Sensitive Paint Test Conducted at the National Transonic Facility on Test 197: The Common Research Model

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    Watkins, A. Neal; Lipford, William E.; Leighty, Bradley D.; Goodman, Kyle Z.; Goad, William K.; Goad, Linda R.

    2011-01-01

    This report will serve to present results of a test of the pressure sensitive paint (PSP) technique on the Common Research Model (CRM). This test was conducted at the National Transonic Facility (NTF) at NASA Langley Research Center. PSP data was collected on several surfaces with the tunnel operating in both cryogenic mode and standard air mode. This report will also outline lessons learned from the test as well as possible approaches to challenges faced in the test that can be applied to later entries.

  4. Local Sensitivity and Diagnostic Tests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magnus, J.R.; Vasnev, A.L.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we confront sensitivity analysis with diagnostic testing.Every model is misspecified, but a model is useful if the parameters of interest (the focus) are not sensitive to small perturbations in the underlying assumptions. The study of the e ect of these violations on the focus is

  5. Comparative sensitivity of Xenopus tropicalis and Xenopus laevis as test species for the FETAX model.

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    Fort, Douglas J; Rogers, Robert L; Thomas, John H; Buzzard, Brody O; Noll, Andra M; Spaulding, Clinton D

    2004-01-01

    The use of Xenopus tropicalis as an alternative test species for the Frog Embryo Teratogenesis Assay-Xenopus (FETAX) model was evaluated. Five test substances with varying developmental toxicity potential were evaluated using the traditional FETAX (X. laevis) and a modified assay to accommodate the use of X. tropicalis. Two separate definitive concentration-response tests were performed with ethanol, semicarbazide, copper, 6-aminonicotinamide (6-AN) and atrazine. In order to evaluate the impact of culture temperature on species sensitivity, tests with X. tropicalis were performed concurrently at 27 degrees C (optimum temperature) and 23 degrees C (traditional FETAX temperature). Tests with X. laevis were performed only at 23 degrees C (optimal for X. laevis). Regardless of culture temperature, tests with X. laevis and X. tropicalis indicated that each of the compounds possessed teratogenic potential: semicarbazide>6-AN>atrazine approximately copper>ethanol. Results from these studies indicated that these two species responded similarly to the test compounds. Xenopus tropicalis was somewhat less sensitive to 6-AN, semicarbizide and atrazine when tested at 27 degrees C than at 23 degrees C. Ethanol, copper and atrazine were reasonably equipotent in X. tropicalis and X. laevis in terms of teratogenic response (EC50 for malformation), whereas 6-AN and semicarbizide were less potent in X. tropicalis than in X. laevis. No substantial differences (order of magnitude) in potency were observed between X. laevis and X. tropicalis with any of the test materials evaluated. Malformation syndromes induced in both species were similar in X. tropicalis and X. laevis. These results suggested that X. tropicalis could be used effectively as a test organism for the FETAX model.

  6. Testing sensitivity of the LISFLOOD subgrid hydraulic model to SAR image derived information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Melissa; Bates, Paul; Neal, Jeff; Hostache, Renaud; Matgen, Patrick; Chini, Marco; Giustarini, Laura

    2013-04-01

    There has been much interest in the use of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images to indirectly estimate flood extent and flood elevation to aid the understanding of fluvial flood inundation processes. SAR remote sensing satellites are capable of all-weather day/night observations that can discriminate between land and smooth open water surfaces over large scales. By combining SAR derived information with 2D hydraulic models and terrain data, the mechanisms of flooding can be better simulated therefore enabling more accurate and reliable flood forecasting. The objective of this study is to test the sensitivity of a LISFLOOD subgrid 2D model to its main parameters (i.e. roughness coefficient, river bathymetry) using SAR derived flood extent maps. Because of SAR imaging techniques and processing steps used to derive the flood information, any SAR-derived flood extent image will contain inherent uncertainty. We therefore use the uncertainty of the SAR information to obtain a range of plausible parameters to test sensitivity of the hydraulic model. LISFLOOD is a distributed 2D model developed at the University of Bristol and designed for use with larger ungauged river catchments. The version used employs a subgrid procedure which allows any size of river channel below that of the grid resolution to be represented. This procedure has been shown to improve hydraulic connectivity within the modelled flooded area and thus improve flood prediction for data sparse areas. A hydrodynamic LISFLOOD subgrid model of the River Severn at Tewkesbury covering a domain area of 50x70km and including the confluence with a major tributary (the River Avon) will be utilised. A complete storm hydrograph will be used as inflow to the model to simulate the full flood event. Surveyed cross section and gauged daily flows are also available for the River Severn. Therefore, the model results using variable parameters can be compared against results obtained from ground observations to further

  7. Anxiety sensitivity and suicide risk among firefighters: A test of the depression-distress amplification model.

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    Stanley, Ian H; Smith, Lia J; Boffa, Joseph W; Tran, Jana K; Schmidt, N Brad; Joiner, Thomas E; Vujanovic, Anka A

    2018-04-07

    Firefighters represent an occupational group at increased suicide risk. How suicidality develops among firefighters is poorly understood. The depression-distress amplification model posits that the effects of depression symptoms on suicide risk will be intensified in the context of anxiety sensitivity (AS) cognitive concerns. The current study tested this model among firefighters. Overall, 831 firefighters participated (mean [SD] age = 38.37 y [8.53 y]; 94.5% male; 75.2% White). The Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D), Anxiety Sensitivity Index-3 (ASI-3), and Suicidal Behaviors Questionnaire-Revised (SBQ-R) were utilized to assess for depression symptoms, AS concerns (cognitive, physical, social), and suicide risk, respectively. Linear regression interaction models were tested. The effects of elevated depression symptoms on increased suicide risk were augmented when AS cognitive concerns were also elevated. Unexpectedly, depression symptoms also interacted with AS social concerns; however, consistent with expectations, depression symptoms did not interact with AS physical concerns in the prediction of suicide risk. In the context of elevated depression symptoms, suicide risk is potentiated among firefighters reporting elevated AS cognitive and AS social concerns. Findings support and extend the depression-distress amplification model of suicide risk within a sample of firefighters. Interventions that successfully impact AS concerns may, in turn, mitigate suicide risk among this at-risk population. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. In vitro evaluation of matrix metalloproteinases as predictive testing for nickel, a model sensitizing agent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamberti, Monica; Perfetto, Brunella; Costabile, Teresa; Canozo, Nunzia; Baroni, Adone; Liotti, Francesco; Sannolo, Nicola; Giuliano, Mariateresa

    2004-01-01

    The identification of potential damage due to chemical exposure in the workplace is a major health and regulatory concern. Traditional tests that measure both sensitization and elicitation responses require the use of animals. An alternative to this widespread use of experimental animals could have a crucial impact on risk assessment, especially for the preliminary screening of new molecules. We developed an in vitro model for the screening of potential toxic compounds. Human keratinocytes (HaCat) were used as target cells while matrix metalloproteinases (MMP) were selected as responders because they are key enzymes involved in extracellular matrix (ECM) degradation in physiological and pathological conditions. Chemical exposure was performed using nickel sulphate as a positive tester. Nickel contact induced upregulation of MMP-2 and IL-8 mRNA production. Molecular activation occurred even at very low nickel concentrations even though no phenotypic changes were observed. MMP-9 accumulation was found in the medium of treated cells with respect to controls. These observations led to the hypothesis that even minimal exposure can accumulate transcriptional activity resulting in long-term clinical signs after contact. Our simple in vitro model can be applied as a useful preliminary complement to the animal studies to screen the effects of new potential toxic compounds

  9. Culture and Youth Psychopathology: Testing the Syndromal Sensitivity Model in Thai and American Adolescents

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    Weisz, John R.; Weiss, Bahr; Suwanlert, Somsong; Chaiyasit, Wanchai

    2006-01-01

    Current widespread use of the same youth assessment measures and scales across different nations assumes that youth psychopathology syndromes do not differ meaningfully across nations. By contrast, the authors' syndromal sensitivity model posits 3 processes through which cultural differences can lead to cross-national differences in…

  10. Testing the role of reward and punishment sensitivity in avoidance behavior: a computational modeling approach.

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    Sheynin, Jony; Moustafa, Ahmed A; Beck, Kevin D; Servatius, Richard J; Myers, Catherine E

    2015-04-15

    Exaggerated avoidance behavior is a predominant symptom in all anxiety disorders and its degree often parallels the development and persistence of these conditions. Both human and non-human animal studies suggest that individual differences as well as various contextual cues may impact avoidance behavior. Specifically, we have recently shown that female sex and inhibited temperament, two anxiety vulnerability factors, are associated with greater duration and rate of the avoidance behavior, as demonstrated on a computer-based task closely related to common rodent avoidance paradigms. We have also demonstrated that avoidance is attenuated by the administration of explicit visual signals during "non-threat" periods (i.e., safety signals). Here, we use a reinforcement-learning network model to investigate the underlying mechanisms of these empirical findings, with a special focus on distinct reward and punishment sensitivities. Model simulations suggest that sex and inhibited temperament are associated with specific aspects of these sensitivities. Specifically, differences in relative sensitivity to reward and punishment might underlie the longer avoidance duration demonstrated by females, whereas higher sensitivity to punishment might underlie the higher avoidance rate demonstrated by inhibited individuals. Simulations also suggest that safety signals attenuate avoidance behavior by strengthening the competing approach response. Lastly, several predictions generated by the model suggest that extinction-based cognitive-behavioral therapies might benefit from the use of safety signals, especially if given to individuals with high reward sensitivity and during longer safe periods. Overall, this study is the first to suggest cognitive mechanisms underlying the greater avoidance behavior observed in healthy individuals with different anxiety vulnerabilities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Testing the role of reward and punishment sensitivity in avoidance behavior: a computational modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheynin, Jony; Moustafa, Ahmed A.; Beck, Kevin D.; Servatius, Richard J.; Myers, Catherine E.

    2015-01-01

    Exaggerated avoidance behavior is a predominant symptom in all anxiety disorders and its degree often parallels the development and persistence of these conditions. Both human and non-human animal studies suggest that individual differences as well as various contextual cues may impact avoidance behavior. Specifically, we have recently shown that female sex and inhibited temperament, two anxiety vulnerability factors, are associated with greater duration and rate of the avoidance behavior, as demonstrated on a computer-based task closely related to common rodent avoidance paradigms. We have also demonstrated that avoidance is attenuated by the administration of explicit visual signals during “non-threat” periods (i.e., safety signals). Here, we use a reinforcement-learning network model to investigate the underlying mechanisms of these empirical findings, with a special focus on distinct reward and punishment sensitivities. Model simulations suggest that sex and inhibited temperament are associated with specific aspects of these sensitivities. Specifically, differences in relative sensitivity to reward and punishment might underlie the longer avoidance duration demonstrated by females, whereas higher sensitivity to punishment might underlie the higher avoidance rate demonstrated by inhibited individuals. Simulations also suggest that safety signals attenuate avoidance behavior by strengthening the competing approach response. Lastly, several predictions generated by the model suggest that extinction-based cognitive-behavioral therapies might benefit from the use of safety signals, especially if given to individuals with high reward sensitivity and during longer safe periods. Overall, this study is the first to suggest cognitive mechanisms underlying the greater avoidance behavior observed in healthy individuals with different anxiety vulnerabilities. PMID:25639540

  12. Testing the Nanoparticle-Allostatic Cross Adaptation-Sensitization Model for Homeopathic Remedy Effects

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    Bell, Iris R.; Koithan, Mary; Brooks, Audrey J.

    2012-01-01

    Key concepts of the Nanoparticle-Allostatic Cross-Adaptation-Sensitization (NPCAS) Model for the action of homeopathic remedies in living systems include source nanoparticles as low level environmental stressors, heterotypic hormesis, cross-adaptation, allostasis (stress response network), time-dependent sensitization with endogenous amplification and bidirectional change, and self-organizing complex adaptive systems. The model accommodates the requirement for measurable physical agents in the remedy (source nanoparticles and/or source adsorbed to silica nanoparticles). Hormetic adaptive responses in the organism, triggered by nanoparticles; bipolar, metaplastic change, dependent on the history of the organism. Clinical matching of the patient’s symptom picture, including modalities, to the symptom pattern that the source material can cause (cross-adaptation and cross-sensitization). Evidence for nanoparticle-related quantum macro-entanglement in homeopathic pathogenetic trials. This paper examines research implications of the model, discussing the following hypotheses: Variability in nanoparticle size, morphology, and aggregation affects remedy properties and reproducibility of findings. Homeopathic remedies modulate adaptive allostatic responses, with multiple dynamic short- and long-term effects. Simillimum remedy nanoparticles, as novel mild stressors corresponding to the organism’s dysfunction initiate time-dependent cross-sensitization, reversing the direction of dysfunctional reactivity to environmental stressors. The NPCAS model suggests a way forward for systematic research on homeopathy. The central proposition is that homeopathic treatment is a form of nanomedicine acting by modulation of endogenous adaptation and metaplastic amplification processes in the organism to enhance long-term systemic resilience and health. PMID:23290882

  13. Validation and sensitivity tests on improved parametrizations of a land surface process model (LSPM) in the Po Valley

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cassardo, C. [Alessandria, Univ. di Turin (Italy). Dipt. di Scienze e Tecnologie Avanzate; Carena, E.; Longhetto, A. [Turin Univ. (Italy). Dipt. di Fisica Generale `Amedeo Avogadro`

    1998-03-01

    The Land Surface Process Model (LSPM) has been improved with respect to the 1. version of 1994. The modifications have involved the parametrizations of the radiation terms and of turbulent heat fluxes. A parametrization of runoff has also been developed, in order to close the hydrologic balance. This 2. version of LSPM has been validated against experimental data gathered at Mottarone (Verbania, Northern Italy) during a field experiment. The results of this validation show that this new version is able to apportionate the energy into sensible and latent heat fluxes. LSPM has also been submitted to a series of sensitivity tests in order to investigate the hydrological part of the model. The physical quantities selected in these sensitivity experiments have been the initial soil moisture content and the rainfall intensity. In each experiment, the model has been forced by using the observations carried out at the synoptic stations of San Pietro Capofiume (Po Valley, Italy). The observed characteristics of soil and vegetation (not involved in the sensitivity tests) have been used as initial and boundary conditions. The results of the simulation show that LSPM can reproduce well the energy, heat and water budgets and their behaviours with varying the selected parameters. A careful analysis of the LSPM output shows also the importance to identify the effective soil type.

  14. Risks of Allergic Contact Dermatitis Elicited by Nickel, Chromium, and Organic Sensitizers: Quantitative Models Based on Clinical Patch Test Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogen, Kenneth T; Garry, Michael R

    2017-10-11

    Risks of allergic contact dermatitis (ACD) from consumer products intended for extended (nonpiercing) dermal contact are regulated by E.U. Directive EN 1811 that limits released Ni to a weekly equivalent dermal load of ≤0.5 μg/cm 2 . Similar approaches for thousands of known organic sensitizers are hampered by inability to quantify respective ACD-elicitation risk levels. To help address this gap, normalized values of cumulative risk for eliciting a positive ("≥+") clinical patch test response reported in 12 studies for a total of n = 625 Ni-sensitized patients were modeled in relation to observed ACD-eliciting Ni loads, yielding an approximate lognormal (LN) distribution with a geometric mean and standard deviation of GM Ni = 15 μg/cm 2 and GSD Ni = 8.0, respectively. Such data for five sensitizers (including formaldehyde and 2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate) were also ∼LN distributed, but with a common GSD value equal to GSD Ni and with heterogeneous sensitizer-specific GM values each defining a respective ACD-eliciting potency GM Ni /GM relative to Ni. Such potencies were also estimated for nine (meth)acrylates by applying this general LN ACD-elicitation risk model to respective sets of fewer data. ACD-elicitation risk patterns observed for Cr(VI) (n = 417) and Cr(III) (n = 78) were fit to mixed-LN models in which ∼30% and ∼40% of the most sensitive responders, respectively, were estimated to exhibit a LN response also governed by GSD Ni . The observed common LN-response shape parameter GSD Ni may reflect a common underlying ACD mechanism and suggests a common interim approach to quantitative ACD-elicitation risk assessment based on available clinical data. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Tests of methods and software for set-valued model calibration and sensitivity analyses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen PHM; Sanders R; CWM

    1995-01-01

    Testen worden besproken die zijn uitgevoerd op methoden en software voor calibratie middels 'rotated-random-scanning', en voor gevoeligheidsanalyse op basis van de 'dominant direction analysis' en de 'generalized sensitivity analysis'. Deze technieken werden

  16. Patch testing of experimentally sensitized beagle dogs: development of a model for skin lesions of atopic dermatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olivry, Thierry; Deangelo, Kristin B; Dunston, Stanley M; Clarke, Katie B; McCall, Catherine A

    2006-04-01

    In humans with atopic dermatitis (AD), the epicutaneous application of allergens (atopy patch tests or APT) to which the patients are sensitized often results in the development of inflammation resembling that of spontaneous skin lesions. Dogs are affected with a natural homologue of human AD, but information on the induction of positive patch testing reactions is limited. The objectives of this pilot study were to determine the nature and cellular dynamics of inflammation occurring after APT in dogs hypersensitive to house dust mite and flea allergens. Laboratory Beagles were sensitized experimentally to Dermatophagoides farinae house dust mites (two dogs), Ctenocephalides felis flea saliva (one dog) or both (two dogs). Two other dogs served as nonsensitized controls. Both allergens and saline were applied epicutaneously. Macroscopic evaluations and skin biopsies were performed at 4, 24, 48 and 96 h after starting allergenic challenge. Biopsies were evaluated histologically and immunohistochemically with a panel of monoclonal antibodies specific for canine leucocyte antigens. Positive macroscopic reactions consisted of erythema, oedema and induration, and they occurred between 24 and 96 h after allergen application. Macroscopic and microscopic APT reactions developed only whenever serum IgE was present against tested allergens. Microscopically, positive APT was associated with epidermal hyperplasia, Langerhans' cell hyperplasia, and eosinophil and lymphocyte epidermotropism. Dermal inflammation was mixed and arranged in a superficial perivascular to interstitial pattern. Numerous IgE+-CD1+ dendritic cells and gamma-delta T-lymphocytes were observed. Macroscopically and microscopically, APT reactions in these experimentally sensitized animals resembled those seen in lesional biopsy specimens of dogs and humans with spontaneous AD. Therefore, APT in hypersensitive dogs provides a relevant experimental model to investigate the pathogenesis and treatment of both

  17. Effects of snow grain shape on climate simulations: sensitivity tests with the Norwegian Earth System Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Räisänen

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Snow consists of non-spherical grains of various shapes and sizes. Still, in radiative transfer calculations, snow grains are often treated as spherical. This also applies to the computation of snow albedo in the Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR model and in the Los Alamos sea ice model, version 4 (CICE4, both of which are employed in the Community Earth System Model and in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM. In this study, we evaluate the effect of snow grain shape on climate simulated by NorESM in a slab ocean configuration of the model. An experiment with spherical snow grains (SPH is compared with another (NONSPH in which the snow shortwave single-scattering properties are based on a combination of three non-spherical snow grain shapes optimized using measurements of angular scattering by blowing snow. The key difference between these treatments is that the asymmetry parameter is smaller in the non-spherical case (0.77–0.78 in the visible region than in the spherical case ( ≈  0.89. Therefore, for the same effective snow grain size (or equivalently, the same specific projected area, the snow broadband albedo is higher when assuming non-spherical rather than spherical snow grains, typically by 0.02–0.03. Considering the spherical case as the baseline, this results in an instantaneous negative change in net shortwave radiation with a global-mean top-of-the-model value of ca. −0.22 W m−2. Although this global-mean radiative effect is rather modest, the impacts on the climate simulated by NorESM are substantial. The global annual-mean 2 m air temperature in NONSPH is 1.17 K lower than in SPH, with substantially larger differences at high latitudes. The climatic response is amplified by strong snow and sea ice feedbacks. It is further demonstrated that the effect of snow grain shape could be largely offset by adjusting the snow grain size. When assuming non-spherical snow grains with the parameterized grain

  18. Effects of snow grain shape on climate simulations: sensitivity tests with the Norwegian Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Räisänen, Petri; Makkonen, Risto; Kirkevåg, Alf; Debernard, Jens B.

    2017-12-01

    Snow consists of non-spherical grains of various shapes and sizes. Still, in radiative transfer calculations, snow grains are often treated as spherical. This also applies to the computation of snow albedo in the Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) model and in the Los Alamos sea ice model, version 4 (CICE4), both of which are employed in the Community Earth System Model and in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). In this study, we evaluate the effect of snow grain shape on climate simulated by NorESM in a slab ocean configuration of the model. An experiment with spherical snow grains (SPH) is compared with another (NONSPH) in which the snow shortwave single-scattering properties are based on a combination of three non-spherical snow grain shapes optimized using measurements of angular scattering by blowing snow. The key difference between these treatments is that the asymmetry parameter is smaller in the non-spherical case (0.77-0.78 in the visible region) than in the spherical case ( ≈ 0.89). Therefore, for the same effective snow grain size (or equivalently, the same specific projected area), the snow broadband albedo is higher when assuming non-spherical rather than spherical snow grains, typically by 0.02-0.03. Considering the spherical case as the baseline, this results in an instantaneous negative change in net shortwave radiation with a global-mean top-of-the-model value of ca. -0.22 W m-2. Although this global-mean radiative effect is rather modest, the impacts on the climate simulated by NorESM are substantial. The global annual-mean 2 m air temperature in NONSPH is 1.17 K lower than in SPH, with substantially larger differences at high latitudes. The climatic response is amplified by strong snow and sea ice feedbacks. It is further demonstrated that the effect of snow grain shape could be largely offset by adjusting the snow grain size. When assuming non-spherical snow grains with the parameterized grain size increased by ca. 70 %, the

  19. Testing, Evaluation and Sensitivity Analysis of an In-Situ Bioremediation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-05-01

    of background carbon. Equation 2.37 can he rewitten as: ARO = BRbF y (5.10) where Ps KPmax+ S2 0~ (5.11) Looking at each additional 02 sink...for the study of joint effects was bor- rowed from a field of Operations Research called Experimental Design and Opti- mization, as presented by Law... Experimental Measurements. Water Resources Re- search, 28 (7) : 1833-1847. [17] Chiang, C.Y., C.N. Dawson, and M.F. Wheeler. 1990. Modeling of In-situ

  20. Acute sensitivity of freshwater mollusks and commonly tested invertebrates to select chemicals with different toxic models of action

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    Previous studies indicate that freshwater mollusks are more sensitive than commonly tested organisms to some chemicals, such as copper and ammonia. Nevertheless, mollusks are generally under-represented in toxicity databases. Studies are needed to generate data with which to comp...

  1. Loglinear Rasch model tests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kelderman, Hendrikus

    1984-01-01

    Existing statistical tests for the fit of the Rasch model have been criticized, because they are only sensitive to specific violations of its assumptions. Contingency table methods using loglinear models have been used to test various psychometric models. In this paper, the assumptions of the Rasch

  2. Forming limit curves determined in high-speed Nakajima tests and predicted by a strain rate sensitive model

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    Weiß-Borkowski, Nathalie; Lian, Juhne; Marten, Thorsten; Tröster, Thomas; Münstermann, Sebastian; Bleck, Wolfgang

    2017-10-01

    Material characteristics such as yield strength and failure strain are affected by the loading speed. Even the start of instability and necking depends not only on the strain hardening coefficient but also on the strain rate sensitivity parameter. Therefore, the strain rate dependence of materials for both plasticity and the failure behavior is taken into account in crash simulations for strain rates up to 1,000 s-1. The current standard experiment for investigation of strain rate dependence is the high speed tensile test as described in a FAT guideline. Moreover, the need of material characterization at multi-axial loadings and high strain rates is pointed out in FAT guideline. Forming limit diagrams (FLD) can be used for the description of the material`s instability behavior at multi-axial loading. Usually, the FLD are determined quasi-statically at 1.5 mm/s. The usage of experimentally determined, quasi-static FLD also at high strain rates leads to great uncertainties and thus can be hardly used in crash simulations. A possibility for experimentally recording FLD at high forming rates > 100 s-1 offers the present described high speed Nakajima test. The results for the deep drawing steel DC01 illustrate the need of the determination of dynamic FLD. In this context, due to the strain rate dependence of the material behavior an extrapolation of quasi-static FLD is not feasible. Alternatively, the prediction of forming limit curves (FLC) at high strain rates is possible with the extended modified maximum force criterion. This new and extended model includes the strain rate dependence and therefore predicting forming limits at dynamic forming gets possible. The new approach is described and the accordance of experimental determined and predicted results for the begin of instability is presented.

  3. Context Sensitive Modeling of Cancer Drug Sensitivity.

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    Bo-Juen Chen

    Full Text Available Recent screening of drug sensitivity in large panels of cancer cell lines provides a valuable resource towards developing algorithms that predict drug response. Since more samples provide increased statistical power, most approaches to prediction of drug sensitivity pool multiple cancer types together without distinction. However, pan-cancer results can be misleading due to the confounding effects of tissues or cancer subtypes. On the other hand, independent analysis for each cancer-type is hampered by small sample size. To balance this trade-off, we present CHER (Contextual Heterogeneity Enabled Regression, an algorithm that builds predictive models for drug sensitivity by selecting predictive genomic features and deciding which ones should-and should not-be shared across different cancers, tissues and drugs. CHER provides significantly more accurate models of drug sensitivity than comparable elastic-net-based models. Moreover, CHER provides better insight into the underlying biological processes by finding a sparse set of shared and type-specific genomic features.

  4. Tropospheric Multiphase Chemistry Modeling : Sensitivity Tests Concerning The Sulfate and Nitric Acid Production In The Condensed Phases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deguillaume, L.; Leriche, M.; Chaumerliac, N.

    Tropospheric multiphase chemistry is still poorly understood, because the interactions between trace gases and the condensed phase are quit complex (Jacob, 2000). A multi- phase chemical box model have been developed with an explicit chemistry for both gas and aqueous phase in Leriche et al. (2000) and in Leriche et al. (2001), the multiphase box model has been coupled with quasi-spectral microphysics, based upon Berry and ReinhardtSs parameterisations (1974 a, b). In these studies, chemical multiphase pro- cesses occurring during one cloudy event observed during the European Cloud Ice Mountain Experiment (CIME) held in 1997 has been investigated . The comparison of the partitioning of chemical species among the gas and condensed phases of the cloud, from model results and from measurements, displays, when collision/coalescence pro- cesses are considered, an improvement in retrieving the partitioning of soluble species, especially for nitric acid. The partitioning of nitric acid depends on the total chemical production of nitric acid both in gas and condensed phases, which is more important when microphysical processes are taken into account due to an important production in rainwater, which is comparable to the production in cloud water. The nitric acid production is related to two precursors in aqueous phase: the pernitric acid and the sulfite ion. Pernitric acid, due to its equilibrium in gas phase and its high solubility, is always available both in cloud water and in rainwater via the mass transfer from gas phase. The sulfite ion comes from the mass transfer from gas phase of the sulfur dioxide in cloud water before rain formation. When rainwater appears, it is efficiently transferred in rainwater by collision/coalescence processes. This two facts lead to an enhancement in nitric acid production when microphysics is considered which leads to a best retrieval of measured nitric acid partitioning. In this review, sensitivity tests are presented. The effect of

  5. An in vitro method for detecting chemical sensitization using human reconstructed skin models and its applicability to cosmetic, pharmaceutical, and medical device safety testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, James M; Keller, Donald J; Gorski, Joel R

    2012-12-01

    Chemical sensitization is a serious condition caused by small reactive molecules and is characterized by a delayed type hypersensitivity known as allergic contact dermatitis (ACD). Contact with these molecules via dermal exposure represent a significant concern for chemical manufacturers. Recent legislation in the EU has created the need to develop non-animal alternative methods for many routine safety studies including sensitization. Although most of the alternative research has focused on pure chemicals that possess reasonable solubility properties, it is important for any successful in vitro method to have the ability to test compounds with low aqueous solubility. This is especially true for the medical device industry where device extracts must be prepared in both polar and non-polar vehicles in order to evaluate chemical sensitization. The aim of this research was to demonstrate the functionality and applicability of the human reconstituted skin models (MatTek Epiderm(®) and SkinEthic RHE) as a test system for the evaluation of chemical sensitization and its potential use for medical device testing. In addition, the development of the human 3D skin model should allow the in vitro sensitization assay to be used for finished product testing in the personal care, cosmetics, and pharmaceutical industries. This approach combines solubility, chemical reactivity, cytotoxicity, and activation of the Nrf2/ARE expression pathway to identify and categorize chemical sensitizers. Known chemical sensitizers representing extreme/strong-, moderate-, weak-, and non-sensitizing potency categories were first evaluated in the skin models at six exposure concentrations ranging from 0.1 to 2500 µM for 24 h. The expression of eight Nrf2/ARE, one AhR/XRE and two Nrf1/MRE controlled gene were measured by qRT-PCR. The fold-induction at each exposure concentration was combined with reactivity and cytotoxicity data to determine the sensitization potential. The results demonstrated that

  6. Structural sensitivity of biological models revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordoleani, Flora; Flora, Cordoleani; Nerini, David; David, Nerini; Gauduchon, Mathias; Mathias, Gauduchon; Morozov, Andrew; Andrew, Morozov; Poggiale, Jean-Christophe; Jean-Christophe, Poggiale

    2011-08-21

    Enhancing the predictive power of models in biology is a challenging issue. Among the major difficulties impeding model development and implementation are the sensitivity of outcomes to variations in model parameters, the problem of choosing of particular expressions for the parametrization of functional relations, and difficulties in validating models using laboratory data and/or field observations. In this paper, we revisit the phenomenon which is referred to as structural sensitivity of a model. Structural sensitivity arises as a result of the interplay between sensitivity of model outcomes to variations in parameters and sensitivity to the choice of model functions, and this can be somewhat of a bottleneck in improving the models predictive power. We provide a rigorous definition of structural sensitivity and we show how we can quantify the degree of sensitivity of a model based on the Hausdorff distance concept. We propose a simple semi-analytical test of structural sensitivity in an ODE modeling framework. Furthermore, we emphasize the importance of directly linking the variability of field/experimental data and model predictions, and we demonstrate a way of assessing the robustness of modeling predictions with respect to data sampling variability. As an insightful illustrative example, we test our sensitivity analysis methods on a chemostat predator-prey model, where we use laboratory data on the feeding of protozoa to parameterize the predator functional response. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Using High-Resolution Data to Test Parameter Sensitivity of the Distributed Hydrological Model HydroGeoSphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Cornelissen

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Parameterization of physically based and distributed hydrological models for mesoscale catchments remains challenging because the commonly available data base is insufficient for calibration. In this paper, we parameterize a mesoscale catchment for the distributed model HydroGeoSphere by transferring evapotranspiration parameters calibrated at a highly-equipped headwater catchment in addition to literature data. Based on this parameterization, the sensitivity of the mesoscale catchment to spatial variability in land use, potential evapotranspiration and precipitation and of the headwater catchment to mesoscale soil and land use data was conducted. Simulations of the mesoscale catchment with transferred parameters reproduced daily discharge dynamics and monthly evapotranspiration of grassland, deciduous and coniferous vegetation in a satisfactory manner. Precipitation was the most sensitive input data with respect to total runoff and peak flow rates, while simulated evapotranspiration components and patterns were most sensitive to spatially distributed land use parameterization. At the headwater catchment, coarse soil data resulted in a change in runoff generating processes based on the interplay between higher wetness prior to a rainfall event, enhanced groundwater level rise and accordingly, lower transpiration rates. Our results indicate that the direct transfer of parameters is a promising method to benefit highly equipped simulations of the headwater catchments.

  8. A computational framework for testing arrhythmia marker sensitivities to model parameters in functionally calibrated populations of atrial cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vagos, Márcia R.; Arevalo, Hermenegild; de Oliveira, Bernardo Lino; Sundnes, Joakim; Maleckar, Mary M.

    2017-09-01

    Models of cardiac cell electrophysiology are complex non-linear systems which can be used to gain insight into mechanisms of cardiac dynamics in both healthy and pathological conditions. However, the complexity of cardiac models can make mechanistic insight difficult. Moreover, these are typically fitted to averaged experimental data which do not incorporate the variability in observations. Recently, building populations of models to incorporate inter- and intra-subject variability in simulations has been combined with sensitivity analysis (SA) to uncover novel ionic mechanisms and potentially clarify arrhythmogenic behaviors. We used the Koivumäki human atrial cell model to create two populations, representing normal Sinus Rhythm (nSR) and chronic Atrial Fibrillation (cAF), by varying 22 key model parameters. In each population, 14 biomarkers related to the action potential and dynamic restitution were extracted. Populations were calibrated based on distributions of biomarkers to obtain reasonable physiological behavior, and subjected to SA to quantify correlations between model parameters and pro-arrhythmia markers. The two populations showed distinct behaviors under steady state and dynamic pacing. The nSR population revealed greater variability, and more unstable dynamic restitution, as compared to the cAF population, suggesting that simulated cAF remodeling rendered cells more stable to parameter variation and rate adaptation. SA revealed that the biomarkers depended mainly on five ionic currents, with noted differences in sensitivities to these between nSR and cAF. Also, parameters could be selected to produce a model variant with no alternans and unaltered action potential morphology, highlighting that unstable dynamical behavior may be driven by specific cell parameter settings. These results ultimately suggest that arrhythmia maintenance in cAF may not be due to instability in cell membrane excitability, but rather due to tissue-level effects which

  9. International regulatory requirements for skin sensitization testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel, Amber B; Strickland, Judy; Allen, David; Casati, Silvia; Zuang, Valérie; Barroso, João; Whelan, Maurice; Régimbald-Krnel, M J; Kojima, Hajime; Nishikawa, Akiyoshi; Park, Hye-Kyung; Lee, Jong Kwon; Kim, Tae Sung; Delgado, Isabella; Rios, Ludmila; Yang, Ying; Wang, Gangli; Kleinstreuer, Nicole

    2018-03-05

    Skin sensitization test data are required or considered by chemical regulation authorities around the world. These data are used to develop product hazard labeling for the protection of consumers or workers and to assess risks from exposure to skin-sensitizing chemicals. To identify opportunities for regulatory uses of non-animal replacements for skin sensitization tests, the needs and uses for skin sensitization test data must first be clarified. Thus, we reviewed skin sensitization testing requirements for seven countries or regions that are represented in the International Cooperation on Alternative Test Methods (ICATM). We noted the type of skin sensitization data required for each chemical sector and whether these data were used in a hazard classification, potency classification, or risk assessment context; the preferred tests; and whether alternative non-animal tests were acceptable. An understanding of national and regional regulatory requirements for skin sensitization testing will inform the development of ICATM's international strategy for the acceptance and implementation of non-animal alternatives to assess the health hazards and risks associated with potential skin sensitizers. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  10. Effects of snow grain non-sphericity on climate simulations: Sensitivity tests with the NorESM model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Räisänen, Petri; Makkonen, Risto; Kirkevåg, Alf

    2017-04-01

    optically thick snowpack with a given snow grain effective size, the absorbing aerosol RE is smaller for non-spherical than for spherical snow grains. The reason for this is that due to the lower asymmetry parameter of the non-spherical snow grains, solar radiation does not penetrate as deep in snow as in the case of spherical snow grains. However, in a climate model simulation, the RE is sensitive to patterns of aerosol deposition and simulated snow cover. In fact, the global land-area mean absorbing aerosol RE is larger in the NONSPH than SPH experiment (0.193 vs. 0.168 W m-2), owing to later snowmelt in spring.

  11. Component resolved testing for allergic sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skamstrup Hansen, Kirsten; Poulsen, Lars K

    2010-01-01

    Component resolved diagnostics introduces new possibilities regarding diagnosis of allergic diseases and individualized, allergen-specific treatment. Furthermore, refinement of IgE-based testing may help elucidate the correlation or lack of correlation between allergenic sensitization and allergi...

  12. Model Driven Development of Data Sensitive Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Petur

    2014-01-01

    to the values of variables. This theses strives to improve model-driven development of such data-sensitive systems. This is done by addressing three research questions. In the first we combine state-based modeling and abstract interpretation, in order to ease modeling of data-sensitive systems, while allowing...... efficient model-checking and model-based testing. In the second we develop automatic abstraction learning used together with model learning, in order to allow fully automatic learning of data-sensitive systems to allow learning of larger systems. In the third we develop an approach for modeling and model-based...... detection and pushing error detection to earlier stages of development. The complexity of modeling and the size of systems which can be analyzed is severely limited when introducing data variables. The state space grows exponentially in the number of variable and the domain size of the variables...

  13. Numerical modeling of shock-sensitivity experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bowman, A.L.; Forest, C.A.; Kershner, J.D.; Mader, C.L.; Pimbley, G.H.

    1981-01-01

    The Forest Fire rate model of shock initiation of heterogeneous explosives has been used to study several experiments commonly performed to measure the sensitivity of explosives to shock and to study initiation by explosive-formed jets. The minimum priming charge test, the gap test, the shotgun test, sympathetic detonation, and jet initiation have been modeled numerically using the Forest Fire rate in the reactive hydrodynamic codes SIN and 2DE.

  14. Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2009-01-01

    This contribution presents an overview of sensitivity analysis of simulation models, including the estimation of gradients. It covers classic designs and their corresponding (meta)models; namely, resolution-III designs including fractional-factorial two-level designs for first-order polynomial

  15. Sensitivity Analysis of the Army Training and Testing Area Carrying Capacity (ATTACC) Model to User-specified Starting Parameters

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Anderson, Alan

    1999-01-01

    ...) program is a methodology for estimating training and testing land carrying capacity. The methodology is used to determine land rehabilitation and maintenance costs associated with land-based training and other uses...

  16. Sensitivity Assessment of Ozone Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shorter, Jeffrey A.; Rabitz, Herschel A.; Armstrong, Russell A.

    2000-01-24

    The activities under this contract effort were aimed at developing sensitivity analysis techniques and fully equivalent operational models (FEOMs) for applications in the DOE Atmospheric Chemistry Program (ACP). MRC developed a new model representation algorithm that uses a hierarchical, correlated function expansion containing a finite number of terms. A full expansion of this type is an exact representation of the original model and each of the expansion functions is explicitly calculated using the original model. After calculating the expansion functions, they are assembled into a fully equivalent operational model (FEOM) that can directly replace the original mode.

  17. Greenhouse gas network design using backward Lagrangian particle dispersion modelling – Part 2: Sensitivity analyses and South African test case

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Nickless, A

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This is the second part of a two-part paper considering network design based on a Lagrangian stochastic particle dispersion model (LPDM), aimed at reducing the uncertainty of the flux estimates achievable for the region of interest by the continuous...

  18. Parametric Sensitivity Tests- European PEM Fuel Cell Stack Test Procedures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Araya, Samuel Simon; Andreasen, Søren Juhl; Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2014-01-01

    performed based on test procedures proposed by a European project, Stack-Test. The sensitivity of a Nafion-based low temperature PEMFC stack’s performance to parametric changes was the main objective of the tests. Four crucial parameters for fuel cell operation were chosen; relative humidity, temperature......, pressure, and stoichiometry at varying current density. Furthermore, procedures for polarization curve recording were also tested both in ascending and descending current directions....

  19. Impact sensitivity test of liquid energetic materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiutiaev, A.; Dolzhikov, A.; Zvereva, I.

    2017-10-01

    This paper presents new experimental method for sensitivity evaluation at the impact. A large number of researches shown that the probability of explosion initiating of liquid explosives by impact depends on the chemical nature and the various external characteristics. But the sensitivity of liquid explosive in the presence of gas bubbles increases many times as compared with the liquid without gas bubbles. In this case local chemical reaction focus are formed as a result of compression and heating of the gas inside the bubbles. In the liquid as a result of convection, wave motion, shock, etc. gas bubbles are easily generated, it is necessary to develop methods for determining sensitivity of liquid explosives to impact and to research the explosives ignition with bubbles. For the experimental investigation, the well-known impact machine and the so-called appliance 1 were used. Instead of the metal cup in the standard method in this paper polyurethane foam cylindrical container with liquid explosive was used. Polyurethane foam cylindrical container is easily deforms by impact. A large number of tests with different liquid explosives were made. It was found that the test liquid explosive to impact in appliance 1 with polyurethane foam to a large extent reflect the real mechanical sensitivity due to the small loss of impact energy on the deformation of the metal cup, as well as the best differentiation liquid explosive sensitivity due to the higher resolution method.

  20. Sensitivity-Based Guided Model Calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semnani, M.; Asadzadeh, M.

    2017-12-01

    A common practice in automatic calibration of hydrologic models is applying the sensitivity analysis prior to the global optimization to reduce the number of decision variables (DVs) by identifying the most sensitive ones. This two-stage process aims to improve the optimization efficiency. However, Parameter sensitivity information can be used to enhance the ability of the optimization algorithms to find good quality solutions in a fewer number of solution evaluations. This improvement can be achieved by increasing the focus of optimization on sampling from the most sensitive parameters in each iteration. In this study, the selection process of the dynamically dimensioned search (DDS) optimization algorithm is enhanced by utilizing a sensitivity analysis method to put more emphasis on the most sensitive decision variables for perturbation. The performance of DDS with the sensitivity information is compared to the original version of DDS for different mathematical test functions and a model calibration case study. Overall, the results show that DDS with sensitivity information finds nearly the same solutions as original DDS, however, in a significantly fewer number of solution evaluations.

  1. Sensitivity of weather besed irrigation scheduling model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laghari, K.Q.; Lashari, B.K.; Laghari, N.U.Z.

    2009-01-01

    This study describes the sensitivity of irrigation scheduling model (Mehran) carried out by changing input weather parameters (Temperatures, Wind velocity, Rainfall, and Sunshine hours) to see model sensitivity in computation/estimations (output) for Transpiration (T), Evaporation (E), and allocation of irrigation (I) water. Sensitivity analysis depends on the site and environmental conditions and is therefore an essential step in model validation and application. Mehran Model is weather based crop growth simulation model, which uses daily input data of max and min temperatures (temp), dew point temp (humidity), wind speed, daily sunshine hours (radiation) and computes T/sub c/E/sub s/, and allocates Irrigation accordingly. The input and output base values are taken as an average of three years actual field data used during the Mehran Model testing and calibration on wheat and cotton crops. The model sensitivity of specific input parameter was obtained by varying its value and keeping other input parameters at their base values. The input base values varied by+-10 and +-25%. The model was run for each modified input parameter, and output was compared statistically with base outputs. The ME% (Mean Percent Error) was used to obtain variations in output values. The results reveal that the model is most sensitive with variations in temperature. The 10 and 25% increase in temperature resulted increase in Cotton crop's Tc by 12.18 and 28.54%, corresponding Es by 22.32 and 37.88% and irrigation water allocation by 18.41 and 47.83 % respectively increased from average base values. (author)

  2. Sensitivities in global scale modeling of isoprene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. von Kuhlmann

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available A sensitivity study of the treatment of isoprene and related parameters in 3D atmospheric models was conducted using the global model of tropospheric chemistry MATCH-MPIC. A total of twelve sensitivity scenarios which can be grouped into four thematic categories were performed. These four categories consist of simulations with different chemical mechanisms, different assumptions concerning the deposition characteristics of intermediate products, assumptions concerning the nitrates from the oxidation of isoprene and variations of the source strengths. The largest differences in ozone compared to the reference simulation occured when a different isoprene oxidation scheme was used (up to 30-60% or about 10 nmol/mol. The largest differences in the abundance of peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN were found when the isoprene emission strength was reduced by 50% and in tests with increased or decreased efficiency of the deposition of intermediates. The deposition assumptions were also found to have a significant effect on the upper tropospheric HOx production. Different implicit assumptions about the loss of intermediate products were identified as a major reason for the deviations among the tested isoprene oxidation schemes. The total tropospheric burden of O3 calculated in the sensitivity runs is increased compared to the background methane chemistry by 26±9  Tg( O3 from 273 to an average from the sensitivity runs of 299 Tg(O3. % revised Thus, there is a spread of ± 35% of the overall effect of isoprene in the model among the tested scenarios. This range of uncertainty and the much larger local deviations found in the test runs suggest that the treatment of isoprene in global models can only be seen as a first order estimate at present, and points towards specific processes in need of focused future work.

  3. Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-Gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-Resolution Cloud Observations. Part 2: Sensitivity Tests and Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Peter M.; da Silva, Arlindo M.

    2016-01-01

    Part 1 of this series presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of global circulation model (GCM) sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud data, thereby permitting parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation for large-scale models. This article performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed reduce mean and standard deviation biases significantly with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud-top pressure and that it also improves the simulated rotational-Raman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows non-gradient-based jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast, where the background state has a clear swath. This article also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in passive-radiometer-retrieved cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud-top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification from Riishojgaard provides some help in this respect, by

  4. Re-test reliability of gustatory testing and introduction of the sensitive Taste-Drop-Test

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fjaeldstad, A; Niklassen, A; Fernandes, H

    2018-01-01

    . Testing gustatory function can be important for diagnostics and assessment of treatment effects. However, the gustatory tests applied are required to be both sensitive and reliable.In this study, we investigate the re-test validity of popular Taste Strips gustatory test for gustatory screening....... Furthermore, we introduce a new sensitive Taste-Drop-Test, which was found to be superior for detecting a more accurate measure of tastant sensitivity....

  5. Comparison of the sensitivities of the Buehler test and the guinea pig maximization test for predictive testing of contact allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frankild, S; Vølund, A; Wahlberg, J E

    2001-01-01

    International test guidelines, such as the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) guideline #406, recommend 2 guinea pig methods for testing of the contact allergenic potential of chemicals: the Guinea Pig Maximization Test (GPMT) and the Buehler test. Previous comparisons...... between the methods suggested that the Buehler test was less sensitive than the GPMT although modified Buehler test protocols were used. Parallel GPMT and Buehler tests were conducted according to OECD guideline #406 using a multiple-dose design and test results were analysed using a standard logistic...... dose-response model. To compare the sensitivity of the 2 test procedures the test conditions were kept identical and the following chemicals with a range of sensitization potentials were tested: chloraniline, chlorhexidine, eugenol, formaldehyde, mercaptobenzothiazole and neomycin sulphate...

  6. Inverse modeling of cloud-aerosol interactions — Part 2: Sensitivity tests on liquid phase clouds using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo based simulation approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Partridge, D.G.; Vrugt, J.A.; Tunved, P.; Ekman, A.M.L.; Struthers, H.; Sorooshian, A.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a novel approach to investigate cloud-aerosol interactions by coupling a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to a pseudo-adiabatic cloud parcel model. Despite the number of numerical cloud-aerosol sensitivity studies previously conducted few have used statistical analysis

  7. Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-resolution Cloud Observations . Part II; Sensitivity Tests and Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Arlindo M.; Norris, Peter M.

    2013-01-01

    Part I presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of GCM sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution MODIS cloud data, thereby permitting large-scale model parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation. This part performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed significantly reduce mean and standard deviation biases with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud top pressure, and that it also improves the simulated rotational-Ramman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the OMI instrument. Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows finite jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast where the background state has a clear swath. This paper also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in the cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification due to Riishojgaard (1998) provides some help in this respect, by better honoring inversion structures in the background state.

  8. Precipitates/Salts Model Sensitivity Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mariner, P.

    2001-01-01

    The objective and scope of this calculation is to assist Performance Assessment Operations and the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) Department in modeling the geochemical effects of evaporation on potential seepage waters within a potential repository drift. This work is developed and documented using procedure AP-3.12Q, ''Calculations'', in support of ''Technical Work Plan For Engineered Barrier System Department Modeling and Testing FY 02 Work Activities'' (BSC 2001a). The specific objective of this calculation is to examine the sensitivity and uncertainties of the Precipitates/Salts model. The Precipitates/Salts model is documented in an Analysis/Model Report (AMR), ''In-Drift Precipitates/Salts Analysis'' (BSC 2001b). The calculation in the current document examines the effects of starting water composition, mineral suppressions, and the fugacity of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) on the chemical evolution of water in the drift

  9. Non-animal sensitization testing: state-of-the-art.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandebriel, Rob J; van Loveren, Henk

    2010-05-01

    Predictive tests to identify the sensitizing properties of chemicals are carried out using animals. In the European Union timelines for phasing out many standard animal tests were established for cosmetics. Following this policy, the new European Chemicals Legislation (REACH) favors alternative methods, if validated and appropriate. In this review the authors aim to provide a state-of-the art overview of alternative methods (in silico, in chemico, and in vitro) to identify contact and respiratory sensitizing capacity and in some occasions give a measure of potency. The past few years have seen major advances in QSAR (quantitative structure-activity relationship) models where especially mechanism-based models have great potential, peptide reactivity assays where multiple parameters can be measured simultaneously, providing a more complete reactivity profile, and cell-based assays. Several cell-based assays are in development, not only using different cell types, but also several specifically developed assays such as three-dimenionally (3D)-reconstituted skin models, an antioxidant response reporter assay, determination of signaling pathways, and gene profiling. Some of these assays show relatively high sensitivity and specificity for a large number of sensitizers and should enter validation (or are indeed entering this process). Integrating multiple assays in a decision tree or integrated testing system is a next step, but has yet to be developed. Adequate risk assessment, however, is likely to require significantly more time and efforts.

  10. Hydrocoin level 3 - Testing methods for sensitivity/uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grundfelt, B.; Lindbom, B.; Larsson, A.; Andersson, K.

    1991-01-01

    The HYDROCOIN study is an international cooperative project for testing groundwater hydrology modelling strategies for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal. The study was initiated in 1984 by the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the technical work was finalised in 1987. The participating organisations are regulatory authorities as well as implementing organisations in 10 countries. The study has been performed at three levels aimed at studying computer code verification, model validation and sensitivity/uncertainty analysis respectively. The results from the first two levels, code verification and model validation, have been published in reports in 1988 and 1990 respectively. This paper focuses on some aspects of the results from Level 3, sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, for which a final report is planned to be published during 1990. For Level 3, seven test cases were defined. Some of these aimed at exploring the uncertainty associated with the modelling results by simply varying parameter values and conceptual assumptions. In other test cases statistical sampling methods were applied. One of the test cases dealt with particle tracking and the uncertainty introduced by this type of post processing. The amount of results available is substantial although unevenly spread over the test cases. It has not been possible to cover all aspects of the results in this paper. Instead, the different methods applied will be illustrated by some typical analyses. 4 figs., 9 refs

  11. Experimental-based Modelling and Simulation of Water Hydraulic Mechatronics Test Facilities for Motion Control and Operation in Environmental Sensitive Applications` Areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conrad, Finn; Pobedza, J.; Sobczyk, A.

    2003-01-01

    proportional valves and servo actuators for motion control and power transmission undertaken in co-operation by Technical University, DTU and Cracow University of Technology, CUT. The results of this research co-operation include engineering design and test of simulation models compared with two mechatronic...... test rig facilities powered by environmental friendly water hydraulic servo actuator system. Test rigs with measurement and data acquisition system were designed and build up with tap water hydraulic components of the Danfoss Nessie® product family. This paper presents selected experimental...... and identifying test results for a water hydraulic system....

  12. Development of an artificial neural network model for risk assessment of skin sensitization using human cell line activation test, direct peptide reactivity assay, KeratinoSens™ and in silico structure alert parameter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirota, Morihiko; Ashikaga, Takao; Kouzuki, Hirokazu

    2018-04-01

    It is important to predict the potential of cosmetic ingredients to cause skin sensitization, and in accordance with the European Union cosmetic directive for the replacement of animal tests, several in vitro tests based on the adverse outcome pathway have been developed for hazard identification, such as the direct peptide reactivity assay, KeratinoSens™ and the human cell line activation test. Here, we describe the development of an artificial neural network (ANN) prediction model for skin sensitization risk assessment based on the integrated testing strategy concept, using direct peptide reactivity assay, KeratinoSens™, human cell line activation test and an in silico or structure alert parameter. We first investigated the relationship between published murine local lymph node assay EC3 values, which represent skin sensitization potency, and in vitro test results using a panel of about 134 chemicals for which all the required data were available. Predictions based on ANN analysis using combinations of parameters from all three in vitro tests showed a good correlation with local lymph node assay EC3 values. However, when the ANN model was applied to a testing set of 28 chemicals that had not been included in the training set, predicted EC3s were overestimated for some chemicals. Incorporation of an additional in silico or structure alert descriptor (obtained with TIMES-M or Toxtree software) in the ANN model improved the results. Our findings suggest that the ANN model based on the integrated testing strategy concept could be useful for evaluating the skin sensitization potential. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Sensitivity Test of Parameters Influencing Flood Hydrograph Routing with a Diffusion-Wave Distributed using Distributed Hydrological Model, Wet Spa, in Ziarat Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    narges javidan

    2017-02-01

    , evapotranspiration, temperature, and discharge are used as inputs. Additionally, three main maps of the digital elevation model, soil map (texture, and landuse are also applied and converted to digital formats. The result of the simulation shows a good agreement between the simulated hydrography and the observed one. The routing of overland flow and channel flow is implemented by the method of the diffusive wave approximation. A sensitivity test shows that the parameter of flood frequency and the channel roughness coefficient have a large influence on the outflow hydrography and the calculated watershed unit hydrograph, while the threshold of minimum slope and the threshold of drainage area in delineating channel networks have a marginal effect.

  14. Highly sensitive silicon microreactor for catalyst testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Toke Riishøj; Olsen, Jakob Lind; Vesborg, Peter Christian Kjærgaard

    2009-01-01

    by directing the entire gas flow through the catalyst bed to a mass spectrometer, thus ensuring that nearly all reaction products are present in the analyzed gas flow. Although the device can be employed for testing a wide range of catalysts, the primary aim of the design is to allow characterization of model...... catalysts which can only be obtained in small quantities. Such measurements are of significant fundamental interest but are challenging because of the low surface areas involved. The relationship between the reaction zone gas flow and the pressure in the reaction zone is investigated experimentally......, it is found that platinum catalysts with areas as small as 15 mu m(2) are conveniently characterized with the device. (C) 2009 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3270191]...

  15. Transplantation of the sensitized patient: histocompatibility testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, Robert A; Leffell, Mary S; Zachary, Andrea A

    2013-01-01

    A component necessary for successful transplantation of the sensitized patient is timely and high quality support from the histocompatibility laboratory that helps guide selection of the best route to transplantation and the clinical care of the patient. Responsibilities of the laboratory include risk assessment, HLA typing, and accurate antibody characterization.

  16. Patch test sensitivity to Kathon CG.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hjorth, N; Roed-Petersen, J

    1986-03-01

    Among 1511 consecutive patients patch tested with Kathon CG at 100 ppm active ingredient, 13 (0.8%) gave a positive reaction. Use test with a lotion containing Kathon CG (8.6 ppm) revealed no reaction in 11 patients with a positive patch test. It is concluded that a positive patch test reaction to 100 ppm does not initiate eczema after use of products preserved with Kathon CG in the low concentrations (3-15 ppm) used in final products.

  17. Sensitivity tests on the rates of the excited states of positron decays during the rapid proton capture process of the one-zone X-ray burst model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Rita

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we investigate the sensitivities of positron decays on a one-zone model of type-I X-ray bursts. Most existing studies have multiplied or divided entire beta decay rates (electron captures and beta decay rates) by 10. Instead of using the standard Fuller & Fowler (FFNU) rates, we used the most recently developed weak library rates [1], which include rates from Langanke et al.'s table (the LMP table) (2000) [2], Langanke et al.'s table (the LMSH table) (2003) [3], and Oda et al.'s table (1994) [4] (all shell model rates). We then compared these table rates with the old FFNU rates [5] to study differences within the final abundances. Both positron decays and electron capture rates were included in the tables. We also used pn-QRPA rates [6,7] to study the differences within the final abundances. Many of the positron rates from the nuclei's ground states and initial excited energy states along the rapid proton capture (rp) process have been measured in existing studies. However, because temperature affects the rates of excited states, these studies should have also acknowledged the half-lives of the nuclei's excited states. Thus, instead of multiplying or dividing entire rates by 10, we studied how the half-lives of sensitive nuclei in excited states affected the abundances by dividing the half-lives of the ground states by 10, which allowed us to set the half-lives of the excited states. Interestingly, we found that the peak of the final abundance shifted when we modified the rates from the excited states of the 105Sn positron decay rates. Furthermore, the abundance of 80Zr also changed due to usage of pn-QRPA rates instead of weak library rates (the shell model rates).

  18. Variance-based sensitivity indices for models with dependent inputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mara, Thierry A.; Tarantola, Stefano

    2012-01-01

    Computational models are intensively used in engineering for risk analysis or prediction of future outcomes. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are of great help in these purposes. Although several methods exist to perform variance-based sensitivity analysis of model output with independent inputs only a few are proposed in the literature in the case of dependent inputs. This is explained by the fact that the theoretical framework for the independent case is set and a univocal set of variance-based sensitivity indices is defined. In the present work, we propose a set of variance-based sensitivity indices to perform sensitivity analysis of models with dependent inputs. These measures allow us to distinguish between the mutual dependent contribution and the independent contribution of an input to the model response variance. Their definition relies on a specific orthogonalisation of the inputs and ANOVA-representations of the model output. In the applications, we show the interest of the new sensitivity indices for model simplification setting. - Highlights: ► Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are of great help in engineering. ► Several methods exist to perform variance-based sensitivity analysis of model output with independent inputs. ► We define a set of variance-based sensitivity indices for models with dependent inputs. ► Inputs mutual contributions are distinguished from their independent contributions. ► Analytical and computational tests are performed and discussed.

  19. Earthquake likelihood model testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Wiemer, S.; Jackson, D.D.; Rhoades, D.A.

    2007-01-01

    INTRODUCTIONThe Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) project aims to produce and evaluate alternate models of earthquake potential (probability per unit volume, magnitude, and time) for California. Based on differing assumptions, these models are produced to test the validity of their assumptions and to explore which models should be incorporated in seismic hazard and risk evaluation. Tests based on physical and geological criteria are useful but we focus on statistical methods using future earthquake catalog data only. We envision two evaluations: a test of consistency with observed data and a comparison of all pairs of models for relative consistency. Both tests are based on the likelihood method, and both are fully prospective (i.e., the models are not adjusted to fit the test data). To be tested, each model must assign a probability to any possible event within a specified region of space, time, and magnitude. For our tests the models must use a common format: earthquake rates in specified “bins” with location, magnitude, time, and focal mechanism limits.Seismology cannot yet deterministically predict individual earthquakes; however, it should seek the best possible models for forecasting earthquake occurrence. This paper describes the statistical rules of an experiment to examine and test earthquake forecasts. The primary purposes of the tests described below are to evaluate physical models for earthquakes, assure that source models used in seismic hazard and risk studies are consistent with earthquake data, and provide quantitative measures by which models can be assigned weights in a consensus model or be judged as suitable for particular regions.In this paper we develop a statistical method for testing earthquake likelihood models. A companion paper (Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger 2007, this issue) discusses the actual implementation of these tests in the framework of the RELM initiative.Statistical testing of hypotheses is a common task and a

  20. Battlescale Forecast Model Sensitivity Study

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sauter, Barbara

    2003-01-01

    .... Changes to the surface observations used in the Battlescale Forecast Model initialization led to no significant changes in the resulting forecast values of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, or wind direction...

  1. Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

    2017-02-01

    Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

  2. On the use of sensitivity tests in seismic tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rawlinson, N.; Spakman, W.

    2016-05-01

    Sensitivity analysis with synthetic models is widely used in seismic tomography as a means for assessing the spatial resolution of solutions produced by, in most cases, linear or iterative nonlinear inversion schemes. The most common type of synthetic reconstruction test is the so-called checkerboard resolution test in which the synthetic model comprises an alternating pattern of higher and lower wave speed (or some other seismic property such as attenuation) in 2-D or 3-D. Although originally introduced for application to large inverse problems for which formal resolution and covariance could not be computed, these tests have achieved popularity, even when resolution and covariance can be computed, by virtue of being simple to implement and providing rapid and intuitive insight into the reliability of the recovered model. However, checkerboard tests have a number of potential drawbacks, including (1) only providing indirect evidence of quantitative measures of reliability such as resolution and uncertainty, (2) giving a potentially misleading impression of the range of scale-lengths that can be resolved, and (3) not giving a true picture of the structural distortion or smearing that can be caused by the data coverage. The widespread use of synthetic reconstruction tests in seismic tomography is likely to continue for some time yet, so it is important to implement best practice where possible. The goal of this paper is to develop the underlying theory and carry out a series of numerical experiments in order to establish best practice and identify some common pitfalls. Based on our findings, we recommend (1) the use of a discrete spike test involving a sparse distribution of spikes, rather than the use of the conventional tightly spaced checkerboard; (2) using data coverage (e.g. ray-path geometry) inherited from the model constrained by the observations (i.e. the same forward operator or matrix), rather than the data coverage obtained by solving the forward problem

  3. [Repeatability of insulin sensitivity estimation using the Minimal Model and comparison with a modified short low-dose insulin tolerance test].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, R H; Masnatta, L D; Pirola, D; Cuniberti, L A; Maceira, C; Werba, J P

    1996-01-01

    Hyperinsulinemia and insulin-resistance are metabolic disturbances associated with obesity, essential hypertension, hypertriglyceridemia, glucose intolerance, overt non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus, polymetabolic syndrome and atherosclerotic disease. The assessment of in vivo insulin sensitivity (SAI in vivo) changes achieved by life style modifications or drug interventions require a reproducible technique. To evaluate the day-to-day intra-individual repeatability of SAI-in vivo, we determined the variation in the SI index (calculated from the Minimal Model of Bergman modified by insulin or MMins) in 11 subjects with a wide range of insulin-resistance. SI (first study) varied from 0.82 to 8.48 x 10(-4) min-1/microU.mL (4.43 +/- 2.85 x 10(-4) min-1/microU.mL mean +/- SD) and highly correlated with SI (second study) (r = 0.89; p = 0.0002). The average interday coefficient of variation was 20.9 +/- 13.9% and was similar in subjects with low or high SI values. We also measured SAI in vivo by assessing the rate of serum glucose decline induced by human cristalline insulin 0.025 U/kg IV dose after a 12-14 hours fasting period (a modified Bonora's method or BBD) in 11 subjects. No subject presented biochemical or symptomatic hypoglycemia. SAI in vivo values determined by BBD varied from 21 a 234 mumol/ml/min (134 +/- 64.8 mumol/ml/min, mean +/- SD). We found a highly significant correlation between SI values obtained from MMins and SAI in vivo assessed by the BBD (r = 0.89, p = 0.0002). Our results suggest that the Mmins is a fairly reproducible procedure and that a BBD is an acceptable option to quantify SAI in vivo, mainly when a fast-execution practice is necessary or cost restrictions are required.

  4. Large scale model testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brumovsky, M.; Filip, R.; Polachova, H.; Stepanek, S.

    1989-01-01

    Fracture mechanics and fatigue calculations for WWER reactor pressure vessels were checked by large scale model testing performed using large testing machine ZZ 8000 (with a maximum load of 80 MN) at the SKODA WORKS. The results are described from testing the material resistance to fracture (non-ductile). The testing included the base materials and welded joints. The rated specimen thickness was 150 mm with defects of a depth between 15 and 100 mm. The results are also presented of nozzles of 850 mm inner diameter in a scale of 1:3; static, cyclic, and dynamic tests were performed without and with surface defects (15, 30 and 45 mm deep). During cyclic tests the crack growth rate in the elastic-plastic region was also determined. (author). 6 figs., 2 tabs., 5 refs

  5. Tsunami propagation modelling – a sensitivity study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Tkalich

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Indian Ocean (2004 Tsunami and following tragic consequences demonstrated lack of relevant experience and preparedness among involved coastal nations. After the event, scientific and forecasting circles of affected countries have started a capacity building to tackle similar problems in the future. Different approaches have been used for tsunami propagation, such as Boussinesq and Nonlinear Shallow Water Equations (NSWE. These approximations were obtained assuming different relevant importance of nonlinear, dispersion and spatial gradient variation phenomena and terms. The paper describes further development of original TUNAMI-N2 model to take into account additional phenomena: astronomic tide, sea bottom friction, dispersion, Coriolis force, and spherical curvature. The code is modified to be suitable for operational forecasting, and the resulting version (TUNAMI-N2-NUS is verified using test cases, results of other models, and real case scenarios. Using the 2004 Tsunami event as one of the scenarios, the paper examines sensitivity of numerical solutions to variation of different phenomena and parameters, and the results are analyzed and ranked accordingly.

  6. the sensitivity of evapotranspiration models to errors in model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Obe

    ABSTRACT. Five evapotranspiration (Et) model-the penman, Blaney - Criddel, Thornthwaite, the Blaney –. Morin-Nigeria, and the Jensen and Haise models – were analyzed for parameter sensitivity under Nigerian Climatic conditions. The sensitivity of each model to errors in any of its measured parameters (variables) was ...

  7. Sensitivity and Specificity of Clinical and Laboratory Otolith Function Tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Lokesh; Thakar, Alok; Thakur, Bhaskar; Sikka, Kapil

    2017-10-01

    To evaluate clinic based and laboratory tests of otolith function for their sensitivity and specificity in demarcating unilateral compensated complete vestibular deficit from normal. Prospective cross-sectional study. Tertiary care hospital vestibular physiology laboratory. Control group-30 healthy adults, 20-45 years age; Case group-15 subjects post vestibular shwannoma excision or post-labyrinthectomy with compensated unilateral complete audio-vestibular loss. Otolith function evaluation by precise clinical testing (head tilt test-HTT; subjective visual vertical-SVV) and laboratory testing (headroll-eye counterroll-HR-ECR; vesibular evoked myogenic potentials-cVEMP). Sensitivity and specificity of clinical and laboratory tests in differentiating case and control subjects. Measurable test results were universally obtained with clinical otolith tests (SVV; HTT) but not with laboratory tests. The HR-ECR test did not indicate any definitive wave forms in 10% controls and 26% cases. cVEMP responses were absent in 10% controls.HTT test with normative cutoff at 2 degrees deviations from vertical noted as 93.33% sensitive and 100% specific. SVV test with normative cutoff at 1.3 degrees noted as 100% sensitive and 100% specific. Laboratory tests demonstrated poorer specificities owing primarily to significant unresponsiveness in normal controls. Clinical otolith function tests, if conducted with precision, demonstrate greater ability than laboratory testing in discriminating normal controls from cases with unilateral complete compensated vestibular dysfunction.

  8. LBLOCA sensitivity analysis using meta models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villamizar, M.; Sanchez-Saez, F.; Villanueva, J.F.; Carlos, S.; Sanchez, A.I.; Martorell, S.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an approach to perform the sensitivity analysis of the results of simulation of thermal hydraulic codes within a BEPU approach. Sensitivity analysis is based on the computation of Sobol' indices that makes use of a meta model, It presents also an application to a Large-Break Loss of Coolant Accident, LBLOCA, in the cold leg of a pressurized water reactor, PWR, addressing the results of the BEMUSE program and using the thermal-hydraulic code TRACE. (authors)

  9. Tree-Based Global Model Tests for Polytomous Rasch Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komboz, Basil; Strobl, Carolin; Zeileis, Achim

    2018-01-01

    Psychometric measurement models are only valid if measurement invariance holds between test takers of different groups. Global model tests, such as the well-established likelihood ratio (LR) test, are sensitive to violations of measurement invariance, such as differential item functioning and differential step functioning. However, these…

  10. Automated differentiation of computer models for sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.

    1991-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis of reactor physics computer models is an established discipline after more than twenty years of active development of generalized perturbations theory based on direct and adjoint methods. Many reactor physics models have been enhanced to solve for sensitivities of model results to model data. The calculated sensitivities are usually normalized first derivatives, although some codes are capable of solving for higher-order sensitivities. The purpose of this paper is to report on the development and application of the GRESS system for automating the implementation of the direct and adjoint techniques into existing FORTRAN computer codes. The GRESS system was developed at ORNL to eliminate the costly man-power intensive effort required to implement the direct and adjoint techniques into already-existing FORTRAN codes. GRESS has been successfully tested for a number of codes over a wide range of applications and presently operates on VAX machines under both VMS and UNIX operating systems. (author). 9 refs, 1 tab

  11. Validity, Reliability, and Sensitivity of a Volleyball Intermittent Endurance Test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Marroyo, Jose A; Medina-Carrillo, Javier; García-López, Juan; Morante, Juan C; Villa, José G; Foster, Carl

    2017-03-01

    To analyze the concurrent and construct validity of a volleyball intermittent endurance test (VIET). The VIET's test-retest reliability and sensitivity to assess seasonal changes was also studied. During the preseason, 71 volleyball players of different competitive levels took part in this study. All performed the VIET and a graded treadmill test with gas-exchange measurement (GXT). Thirty-one of the players performed an additional VIET to analyze the test-retest reliability. To test the VIET's sensitivity, 28 players repeated the VIET and GXT at the end of their season. Significant (P volleyball players.

  12. Evaluating the Instructional Sensitivity of Four States' Student Achievement Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polikoff, Morgan S.

    2016-01-01

    As state tests of student achievement are used for an increasingly wide array of high- and low-stakes purposes, evaluating their instructional sensitivity is essential. This article uses data from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation's Measures of Effective Project to examine the instructional sensitivity of 4 states' mathematics and English…

  13. The Development and Validation of the Vocalic Sensitivity Test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villaume, William A.; Brown, Mary Helen

    1999-01-01

    Notes that presbycusis, hearing loss associated with aging, may be marked by a second dimension of hearing loss, a loss in vocalic sensitivity. Reports on the development of the Vocalic Sensitivity Test, which controls for the verbal elements in speech while also allowing for the vocalics to exercise their normal metacommunicative function of…

  14. Wave Reflection Model Tests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, H. F.; Larsen, Brian Juul

    The investigation concerns the design of a new internal breakwater in the main port of Ibiza. The objective of the model tests was in the first hand to optimize the cross section to make the wave reflection low enough to ensure that unacceptable wave agitation will not occur in the port. Secondly...

  15. Vendor Testing of Sensitive Compounds in Simulated Dry Sludge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dworjanyn, L.O.

    1999-01-01

    This assessment covers thermal screening, differential scanning calorimetry, and impact sensitivity testing on Mercury Fulminate, and mixtures of the fulminate in dry inorganic sludge, which is present in large quantities in a number of storage tanks at Westinghouse Savannah River

  16. Testing the Standard Model

    CERN Document Server

    Riles, K

    1998-01-01

    The Large Electron Project (LEP) accelerator near Geneva, more than any other instrument, has rigorously tested the predictions of the Standard Model of elementary particles. LEP measurements have probed the theory from many different directions and, so far, the Standard Model has prevailed. The rigour of these tests has allowed LEP physicists to determine unequivocally the number of fundamental 'generations' of elementary particles. These tests also allowed physicists to ascertain the mass of the top quark in advance of its discovery. Recent increases in the accelerator's energy allow new measurements to be undertaken, measurements that may uncover directly or indirectly the long-sought Higgs particle, believed to impart mass to all other particles.

  17. Retrospective evaluation of the consequence of alleged patch test sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Charlotte D; Paulsen, Evy; Andersen, Klaus E

    2006-01-01

    consequences in cases of possible patch test sensitization. Among 7619 consecutively tested eczema patients in a 14-year period 26 (0.3%) were identified in the database as having had a late patch test reaction, which may be an indication of patch test sensitization. 9 of these cases were not suitable......The risk of actively sensitizing a patient in connection with diagnostic patch tests exists. This risk, however, is extremely low, especially from standard allergens, and if the test is carried out according to internationally accepted guidelines. This retrospective study investigates the clinical...... or available for the follow-up investigation and 3 patients were not traceable. Among the 14 remaining patients 1 had a reaction to gold sodium thiosulphate, which was assessed to be a persistent reaction and not a late reaction, and in 2 patients a clear relevance for the late reacting allergen was found...

  18. Testing the Perturbation Sensitivity of Abortion-Crime Regressions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michał Brzeziński

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The hypothesis that the legalisation of abortion contributed significantly to the reduction of crime in the United States in 1990s is one of the most prominent ideas from the recent “economics-made-fun” movement sparked by the book Freakonomics. This paper expands on the existing literature about the computational stability of abortion-crime regressions by testing the sensitivity of coefficients’ estimates to small amounts of data perturbation. In contrast to previous studies, we use a new data set on crime correlates for each of the US states, the original model specifica-tion and estimation methodology, and an improved data perturbation algorithm. We find that the coefficients’ estimates in abortion-crime regressions are not computationally stable and, therefore, are unreliable.

  19. Sensitivity Analysis of a Physiochemical Interaction Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The mathematical modelling of physiochemical interactions in the framework of industrial and environmental physics usually relies on an initial value problem which is described by a single first order ordinary differential equation. In this analysis, we will study the sensitivity analysis due to a variation of the initial condition ...

  20. Reliable and sensitive physical testing of elite trapeze sailors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bay, Jonathan; Bojsen-Møller, Jens; Nordsborg, Nikolai Baastrup

    2018-01-01

    It was investigated, if a newly developed discipline specific test for elite-level trapeze sailors is reli-able and sensitive. Furthermore, the physical demands of trapeze sailing were examined. In part 1, nine national team athletes were accustomed to a simulated sailing test, which subsequently...... as peak values were 83.5 ± 11.4% and 89.9 ± 1.7% of max, respectively. In conclusion, the present test is reliable and sensitive, thus providing a sailing specific alternative to traditional physical testing of elite trapeze sailors. Additionally, on-water rac-ing requires moderate aerobic energy...... was completed on four occasions to determine test reliability and sensitivity to manipulations in body-weight. Rope-pulling mean power output (MPO), oxygen consumption (VO2 ), heart rate (HR) and blood lactate values were acquired in all trials. In part 2, six sailors completed on-water racing with concurrent...

  1. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the PATHWAY radionuclide transport model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otis, M.D.

    1983-01-01

    Procedures were developed for the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a dynamic model of radionuclide transport through human food chains. Uncertainty in model predictions was estimated by propagation of parameter uncertainties using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. Sensitivity of model predictions to individual parameters was investigated using the partial correlation coefficient of each parameter with model output. Random values produced for the uncertainty analysis were used in the correlation analysis for sensitivity. These procedures were applied to the PATHWAY model which predicts concentrations of radionuclides in foods grown in Nevada and Utah and exposed to fallout during the period of atmospheric nuclear weapons testing in Nevada. Concentrations and time-integrated concentrations of iodine-131, cesium-136, and cesium-137 in milk and other foods were investigated. 9 figs., 13 tabs

  2. Sensitivities and uncertainties of modeled ground temperatures in mountain environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Gubler

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Model evaluation is often performed at few locations due to the lack of spatially distributed data. Since the quantification of model sensitivities and uncertainties can be performed independently from ground truth measurements, these analyses are suitable to test the influence of environmental variability on model evaluation. In this study, the sensitivities and uncertainties of a physically based mountain permafrost model are quantified within an artificial topography. The setting consists of different elevations and exposures combined with six ground types characterized by porosity and hydraulic properties. The analyses are performed for a combination of all factors, that allows for quantification of the variability of model sensitivities and uncertainties within a whole modeling domain. We found that model sensitivities and uncertainties vary strongly depending on different input factors such as topography or different soil types. The analysis shows that model evaluation performed at single locations may not be representative for the whole modeling domain. For example, the sensitivity of modeled mean annual ground temperature to ground albedo ranges between 0.5 and 4 °C depending on elevation, aspect and the ground type. South-exposed inclined locations are more sensitive to changes in ground albedo than north-exposed slopes since they receive more solar radiation. The sensitivity to ground albedo increases with decreasing elevation due to shorter duration of the snow cover. The sensitivity in the hydraulic properties changes considerably for different ground types: rock or clay, for instance, are not sensitive to uncertainties in the hydraulic properties, while for gravel or peat, accurate estimates of the hydraulic properties significantly improve modeled ground temperatures. The discretization of ground, snow and time have an impact on modeled mean annual ground temperature (MAGT that cannot be neglected (more than 1 °C for several

  3. A sensitive venous bleeding model in haemophilia A mice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pastoft, Anne Engedahl; Lykkesfeldt, Jens; Ezban, M.

    2012-01-01

    for evaluation of pro-coagulant compounds for treatment of haemophilia. Interestingly, the vena saphena model proved to be sensitive towards FVIII in plasma levels that approach the levels preventing bleeding in haemophilia patients, and may, thus, in particular be valuable for testing of new long...

  4. Advances in techniques of testing mycobacterial drug sensitivity, and the use of sensitivity tests in tuberculosis control programmes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canetti, G.; Fox, Wallace; Khomenko, A.; Mahler, H. T.; Menon, N. K.; Mitchison, D. A.; Rist, N.; Šmelev, N. A.

    1969-01-01

    In a paper arising out of an informal international consultation of specialists in the bacteriology of tuberculosis held in 1961, an attempt was made to formulate criteria, and specify technical procedures, for reliable tests of sensitivity (the absolute-concentration method, the resistance-ratio method and the proportion method) to the 3 main antituberculosis drugs (isoniazid, streptomycin and p-aminosalicylic acid). Seven years later, a further consultation was held to review the latest developments in the field and to suggest how sensitivity tests might be put to practical use in tuberculosis control programmes. The participants reached agreement on how to define drug sensitivity and resistance, and stressed the importance of using a discrimination approach to the calibration of sensitivity tests. Their views are contained in the present paper, which also includes descriptions of the sensitivity tests used by the Medical Research Council of Great Britain for first- and second-line drugs (minimal inhibitory concentration and resistance-ratio methods), the two main variants of the proportion method developed by the Institut Pasteur, Paris, and a method for calibrating sensitivity tests. PMID:5309084

  5. Sensitivity study on hydraulic well testing inversion using simulated annealing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakao, Shinsuke; Najita, J.; Karasaki, Kenzi

    1997-11-01

    For environmental remediation, management of nuclear waste disposal, or geothermal reservoir engineering, it is very important to evaluate the permeabilities, spacing, and sizes of the subsurface fractures which control ground water flow. Cluster variable aperture (CVA) simulated annealing has been used as an inversion technique to construct fluid flow models of fractured formations based on transient pressure data from hydraulic tests. A two-dimensional fracture network system is represented as a filled regular lattice of fracture elements. The algorithm iteratively changes an aperture of cluster of fracture elements, which are chosen randomly from a list of discrete apertures, to improve the match to observed pressure transients. The size of the clusters is held constant throughout the iterations. Sensitivity studies using simple fracture models with eight wells show that, in general, it is necessary to conduct interference tests using at least three different wells as pumping well in order to reconstruct the fracture network with a transmissivity contrast of one order of magnitude, particularly when the cluster size is not known a priori. Because hydraulic inversion is inherently non-unique, it is important to utilize additional information. The authors investigated the relationship between the scale of heterogeneity and the optimum cluster size (and its shape) to enhance the reliability and convergence of the inversion. It appears that the cluster size corresponding to about 20--40 % of the practical range of the spatial correlation is optimal. Inversion results of the Raymond test site data are also presented and the practical range of spatial correlation is evaluated to be about 5--10 m from the optimal cluster size in the inversion.

  6. Screening design for model sensitivity studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welsh, James P.; Koenig, George G.; Bruce, Dorothy

    1997-07-01

    This paper describes a different approach to sensitivity studies for environmental, including atmospheric, physics models. The sensitivity studies were performed on a multispectral environmental data and scene generation capability. The capability includes environmental physics models that are used to generate data and scenes for simulation of environmental materials, features, and conditions, such as trees, clouds, soils, and snow. These studies were performed because it is difficult to obtain input data for many of the environmental variables. The problem to solve is to determine which of the 100 or so input variables, used by the generation capability, are the most important. These sensitivity studies focused on the generation capabilities needed to predict and evaluate the performance of sensor systems operating in the infrared portions of the electromagnetic spectrum. The sensitivity study approach described uses a screening design. Screening designs are analytical techniques that use a fraction of all of the combinations of the potential input variables and conditions to determine which are the most important. Specifically a 20-run Plackett-Burman screening design was used to study the sensitivity of eight data and scene generation capability computed response variables to 11 selected input variables. This is a two-level design, meaning that the range of conditions is represented by two different values for each of the 11 selected variables. The eight response variables used were maximum, minimum, range, and mode of the model-generated temperature and radiance values. The result is that six of the 11 input variables (soil moisture, solar loading, roughness length, relative humidity, surface albedo, and surface emissivity) had a statistically significant effect on the response variables.

  7. Low sensitivity of glucagon provocative testing for diagnosis of pheochromocytoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenders, Jacques W M; Pacak, Karel; Huynh, Thanh-Truc; Sharabi, Yehonatan; Mannelli, Massimo; Bratslavsky, Gennady; Goldstein, David S; Bornstein, Stefan R; Eisenhofer, Graeme

    2010-01-01

    Pheochromocytomas can usually be confirmed or excluded using currently available biochemical tests of catecholamine excess. Follow-up tests are, nevertheless, often required to distinguish false-positive from true-positive results. The glucagon stimulation test represents one such test; its diagnostic utility is, however, unclear. The aim of the study was to determine the diagnostic power of the glucagon test to exclude or confirm pheochromocytoma. Glucagon stimulation tests were carried out at three specialist referral centers in 64 patients with pheochromocytoma, 38 patients in whom the tumor was excluded, and in a reference group of 36 healthy volunteers. Plasma concentrations of norepinephrine and epinephrine were measured before and after glucagon administration. Several absolute and relative test criteria were used for calculating diagnostic sensitivity and specificity. Expression of the glucagon receptor was examined in pheochromocytoma tumor tissue from a subset of patients. Larger than 3-fold increases in plasma norepinephrine after glucagon strongly predicted the presence of a pheochromocytoma (100% specificity and positive predictive value). However, irrespective of the various criteria examined, glucagon-provoked increases in plasma catecholamines revealed the presence of the tumor in less than 50% of affected patients. Diagnostic sensitivity was particularly low in patients with pheochromocytomas due to von Hippel-Lindau syndrome. Tumors from these patients showed no significant expression of the glucagon receptor. The glucagon stimulation test offers insufficient diagnostic sensitivity for reliable exclusion or confirmation of pheochromocytoma. Because of this and the risk of hypertensive complications, the test should be abandoned in routine clinical practice.

  8. Applying incentive sensitization models to behavioral addiction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rømer Thomsen, Kristine; Fjorback, Lone; Møller, Arne

    2014-01-01

    The incentive sensitization theory is a promising model for understanding the mechanisms underlying drug addiction, and has received support in animal and human studies. So far the theory has not been applied to the case of behavioral addictions like Gambling Disorder, despite sharing clinical...... symptoms and underlying neurobiology. We examine the relevance of this theory for Gambling Disorder and point to predictions for future studies. The theory promises a significant contribution to the understanding of behavioral addiction and opens new avenues for treatment....

  9. The sensitivity of patch test in patients with psoriasis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yavuz Yeşilova

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Allergic diseases play an important role in the natural course of psoriasis. Atopic sensitization and con-tact dermatitis are common in patients with psoriasis. Since the symptoms are prolonged in patients who are resistant to therapy and exposure to itchy and external factors are common among these patients, the effects of contact aller-gens on triggering psoriasis are investigated. Contact allergens have an important role in activation and remission of psoriasis. We aimed to investigate contact sensitization rates in patients with psoriasis in the study.Material and Methods: Contact sensitization was investigated with the application of European standard series in twenty patients with psoriasis, twenty patients with contact dermatitis, and twenty healthy persons. Results: Among the whole study cases, positivity rate of patch test against one allergen at least was 25%. rate of patch test was 25% in patients with psoriasis, 35% in patients with contact dermatitis, and 15% in healthy persons. There were no significant differences between the groups according to sensitization to one or more allergens (p>0.05. There were no significant difference in clinical subgroup of psoriatic patients according to contact sensitiza-tion (p>0.05. The allergens in patients with psoriasis on patch test were as the followings: phenyldiamine, potassium dichromat, nickel, and cobalt.Conclusion: We think that the patch test has a major role in the diagnosis and elimination of allergens in patients with the chronic and resistant diseases and palmoplantar and flexural psoriasis.

  10. Comparison of two potato simulation models under climate change. I. Model calibration and sensitivity analyses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wolf, J.

    2002-01-01

    To analyse the effects of climate change on potato growth and production, both a simple growth model, POTATOS, and a comprehensive model, NPOTATO, were applied. Both models were calibrated and tested against results from experiments and variety trials in The Netherlands. The sensitivity of model

  11. Sensitivity analysis methods and a biosphere test case implemented in EIKOS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekstroem, P.A.; Broed, R.

    2006-05-01

    Computer-based models can be used to approximate real life processes. These models are usually based on mathematical equations, which are dependent on several variables. The predictive capability of models is therefore limited by the uncertainty in the value of these. Sensitivity analysis is used to apportion the relative importance each uncertain input parameter has on the output variation. Sensitivity analysis is therefore an essential tool in simulation modelling and for performing risk assessments. Simple sensitivity analysis techniques based on fitting the output to a linear equation are often used, for example correlation or linear regression coefficients. These methods work well for linear models, but for non-linear models their sensitivity estimations are not accurate. Usually models of complex natural systems are non-linear. Within the scope of this work, various sensitivity analysis methods, which can cope with linear, non-linear, as well as non-monotone problems, have been implemented, in a software package, EIKOS, written in Matlab language. The following sensitivity analysis methods are supported by EIKOS: Pearson product moment correlation coefficient (CC), Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient (RCC), Partial (Rank) Correlation Coefficients (PCC), Standardized (Rank) Regression Coefficients (SRC), Sobol' method, Jansen's alternative, Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST) as well as the classical FAST method and the Smirnov and the Cramer-von Mises tests. A graphical user interface has also been developed, from which the user easily can load or call the model and perform a sensitivity analysis as well as uncertainty analysis. The implemented sensitivity analysis methods has been benchmarked with well-known test functions and compared with other sensitivity analysis software, with successful results. An illustration of the applicability of EIKOS is added to the report. The test case used is a landscape model consisting of several linked

  12. Photovoltaic System Modeling. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, Clifford W. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Curtis E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-08-01

    We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling AC energy from ph otovoltaic systems . Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. We quantify u ncertainty i n the output of each model using empirical distribution s of each model's residuals. We propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models by sampli ng these distributions to obtain a n empirical distribution of a PV system's output. We consider models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane - of - array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power ; (5) reduce DC power for losses due to inefficient maximum power point tracking or mismatch among modules; and (6) convert DC to AC power . O ur analysis consider s a notional PV system com prising an array of FirstSolar FS - 387 modules and a 250 kW AC inverter ; we use measured irradiance and weather at Albuquerque, NM. We found the uncertainty in PV syste m output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. We found that unce rtainty in the models for POA irradiance and effective irradiance to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty in predicted daily energy. Our analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output predictions may yield the greatest improvements by focusing on the POA and effective irradiance models.

  13. Sensitivity of a Simulated Derecho Event to Model Initial Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei

    2014-05-01

    Since 2003, the MMM division at NCAR has been experimenting cloud-permitting scale weather forecasting using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Over the years, we've tested different model physics, and tried different initial and boundary conditions. Not surprisingly, we found that the model's forecasts are more sensitive to the initial conditions than model physics. In 2012 real-time experiment, WRF-DART (Data Assimilation Research Testbed) at 15 km was employed to produce initial conditions for twice-a-day forecast at 3 km. On June 29, this forecast system captured one of the most destructive derecho event on record. In this presentation, we will examine forecast sensitivity to different model initial conditions, and try to understand the important features that may contribute to the success of the forecast.

  14. Sensitivity Study of Stochastic Walking Load Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian

    2010-01-01

    is to employ a stochastic load model accounting for mean values and standard deviations for the walking load parameters, and to use this as a basis for estimation of structural response. This, however, requires decisions to be made in terms of statistical istributions and their parameters, and the paper...... investigates whether statistical distributions of bridge response are sensitive to some of the decisions made by the engineer doing the analyses. For the paper a selected part of potential influences are examined and footbridge responses are extracted using Monte-Carlo simulations and focus is on estimating...

  15. Applying incentive sensitization models to behavioral addiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rømer Thomsen, Kristine; Fjorback, Lone O; Møller, Arne; Lou, Hans C

    2014-09-01

    The incentive sensitization theory is a promising model for understanding the mechanisms underlying drug addiction, and has received support in animal and human studies. So far the theory has not been applied to the case of behavioral addictions like Gambling Disorder, despite sharing clinical symptoms and underlying neurobiology. We examine the relevance of this theory for Gambling Disorder and point to predictions for future studies. The theory promises a significant contribution to the understanding of behavioral addiction and opens new avenues for treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Specificity and sensitivity assessment of selected nasal provocation testing techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edyta Krzych-Fałta

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Nasal provocation testing involves an allergen-specific local reaction of the nasal mucosa to the administered allergen. Aim: To determine the most objective nasal occlusion assessment technique that could be used in nasal provocation testing. Material and methods : A total of 60 subjects, including 30 patients diagnosed with allergy to common environmental allergens and 30 healthy subjects were enrolled into the study. The method used in the study was a nasal provocation test with an allergen, with a standard dose of a control solution and an allergen (5,000 SBU/ml administered using a calibrated atomizer into both nostrils at room temperature. Early-phase nasal mucosa response in the early phase of the allergic reaction was assessed via acoustic rhinometry, optical rhinometry, nitric oxide in nasal air, and tryptase levels in the nasal lavage fluid. Results : In estimating the homogeneity of the average values, the Levene’s test was used and receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted for all the methods used for assessing the nasal provocation test with an allergen. Statistically significant results were defined for p < 0.05. Of all the objective assessment techniques, the most sensitive and characteristic ones were the optical rhinometry techniques (specificity = 1, sensitivity = 1, AUC = 1, PPV = 1, NPV = 1. Conclusions : The techniques used showed significant differences between the group of patients with allergic rhinitis and the control group. Of all the objective assessment techniques, those most sensitive and characteristic were the optical rhinometry.

  17. Kathon CG: cosmetic allergy and patch test sensitization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Groot, A C; Liem, D H; Weyland, J W

    1985-02-01

    Three cases of contact allergy to Kathon CG, a preservative for cosmetics and toiletries containing, as active ingredients, 5-chloro-2-methyl-4-isothiazolin-3-one and 2-methyl-4-isothiazolin-3-one are presented. In two patients, Kathon CG was contained in a moisturizing cream, and the third was sensitized by a diagnostic patch test. Although it has been used extensively in cosmetics and toiletries for 9 years in Europe and 4 years in the USA, these appear to be the first case reports of non-occupational sensitization to Kathon CG.

  18. Sensitivity analysis techniques for models of human behavior.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bier, Asmeret Brooke

    2010-09-01

    Human and social modeling has emerged as an important research area at Sandia National Laboratories due to its potential to improve national defense-related decision-making in the presence of uncertainty. To learn about which sensitivity analysis techniques are most suitable for models of human behavior, different promising methods were applied to an example model, tested, and compared. The example model simulates cognitive, behavioral, and social processes and interactions, and involves substantial nonlinearity, uncertainty, and variability. Results showed that some sensitivity analysis methods create similar results, and can thus be considered redundant. However, other methods, such as global methods that consider interactions between inputs, can generate insight not gained from traditional methods.

  19. The carbohydrate sensitive rat as a model of obesity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nachiket A Nadkarni

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Sensitivity to obesity is highly variable in humans, and rats fed a high fat diet (HFD are used as a model of this inhomogeneity. Energy expenditure components (basal metabolism, thermic effect of feeding, activity and variations in substrate partitioning are possible factors underlying the variability. Unfortunately, in rats as in humans, results have often been inconclusive and measurements usually made after obesity onset, obscuring if metabolism was a cause or consequence. Additionally, the role of high carbohydrate diet (HCD has seldom been studied. METHODOLOGY/FINDINGS: Rats (n=24 were fed for 3 weeks on HCD and then 3 weeks on HFD. Body composition was tracked by MRI and compared to energy expenditure components measured prior to obesity. RESULTS: 1 under HFD, as expected, by adiposity rats were variable enough to be separable into relatively fat resistant (FR and sensitive (FS groups, 2 under HCD, and again by adiposity, rats were also variable enough to be separable into carbohydrate resistant (CR and sensitive (CS groups, the normal body weight of CS rats hiding viscerally-biased fat accumulation, 3 HCD adiposity sensitivity was not related to that under HFD, and both HCD and HFD adiposity sensitivities were not related to energy expenditure components (BMR, TEF, activity cost, and 4 only carbohydrate to fat partitioning in response to an HCD test meal was related to HCD-induced adiposity. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The rat model of human obesity is based on substantial variance in adiposity gains under HFD (FR/FS model. Here, since we also found this phenomenon under HCD, where it was also linked to an identifiable metabolic difference, we should consider the existence of another model: the carbohydrate resistant (CR or sensitive (CS rat. This new model is potentially complementary to the FR/FS model due to relatively greater visceral fat accumulation on a low fat high carbohydrate diet.

  20. Patch test sensitivity to the preservative Kathon CG in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasson, A; Guimaraens, D; Condé-Salazar, L

    1990-05-01

    Kathon CG is a very well studied preservative used in cosmetics and toiletries. It is effective in low concentrations (3 to 15 ppm active ingredients) and exhibits outstanding antimicrobial activity against gram-negative and gram-positive bacteria, yeasts and fungi. Although this biocide is not considered to pose a toxicological hazard at recommended use levels, the sensitizing potential of Kathon CG has been established. From November 1988 to June 1989, we patch tested 626 unselected contact dermatitis patients with Kathon CG solution containing 200 ppm active ingredients and obtained 22 (3.5%) positive reactions. Relevance was established in 7 of the 22 patients. Women were predominantly sensitized, the principal source of sensitization being cosmetics.

  1. Sensitivity of fecal occult blood testing in the cat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudinsky, Adam J; Guillaumin, Julien; Gilor, Chen

    2017-06-01

    Objectives The impact of dietary factors on fecal occult blood (FOB) testing has been previously evaluated in cats, but the analytical sensitivity of this point-of-care test remains unexamined. The primary goal of this study was to assess the analytical sensitivity of the FOB test in cats. Methods Five cats were used in a repeated measures study. Following oral administration of blood, feces were collected and tested every 12 h for FOB and melena. All cats were fed an animal protein-free diet starting the week before entry into the study. Blood was administered on a milligram of hemoglobin per kilogram of body weight basis, and dosed at 1.5, 3, 15, 30 and 45 mg/kg hemoglobin in series with a wash-out period between each trial. Results FOB was detected in one cat at 1.5 mg/kg hemoglobin, three cats at 3 mg/kg hemoglobin and in all five cats at 15, 30 and 45 mg/kg hemoglobin. Melena was noted in one cat at 30 mg/kg and four cats at 45 mg/kg, but not at lower doses. Conclusions and relevance Administration of 15 mg/kg hemoglobin (equivalent to about 1.5 ml blood) was sufficient for positive results in all cats. However, detection occurred with as little as 1.5 mg/kg hemoglobin. Thus, FOB has good analytical sensitivity in cats under appropriate clinical situations.

  2. Healthy volunteers can be phenotyped using cutaneous sensitization pain models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mads U Werner

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Human experimental pain models leading to development of secondary hyperalgesia are used to estimate efficacy of analgesics and antihyperalgesics. The ability to develop an area of secondary hyperalgesia varies substantially between subjects, but little is known about the agreement following repeated measurements. The aim of this study was to determine if the areas of secondary hyperalgesia were consistently robust to be useful for phenotyping subjects, based on their pattern of sensitization by the heat pain models. METHODS: We performed post-hoc analyses of 10 completed healthy volunteer studies (n = 342 [409 repeated measurements]. Three different models were used to induce secondary hyperalgesia to monofilament stimulation: the heat/capsaicin sensitization (H/C, the brief thermal sensitization (BTS, and the burn injury (BI models. Three studies included both the H/C and BTS models. RESULTS: Within-subject compared to between-subject variability was low, and there was substantial strength of agreement between repeated induction-sessions in most studies. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC improved little with repeated testing beyond two sessions. There was good agreement in categorizing subjects into 'small area' (1(st quartile [75%] responders: 56-76% of subjects consistently fell into same 'small-area' or 'large-area' category on two consecutive study days. There was moderate to substantial agreement between the areas of secondary hyperalgesia induced on the same day using the H/C (forearm and BTS (thigh models. CONCLUSION: Secondary hyperalgesia induced by experimental heat pain models seem a consistent measure of sensitization in pharmacodynamic and physiological research. The analysis indicates that healthy volunteers can be phenotyped based on their pattern of sensitization by the heat [and heat plus capsaicin] pain models.

  3. Sensitivity analysis of LOFT L2-5 test calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prosek, Andrej

    2014-01-01

    The uncertainty quantification of best-estimate code predictions is typically accompanied by a sensitivity analysis, in which the influence of the individual contributors to uncertainty is determined. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the improved fast Fourier transform based method by signal mirroring (FFTBM-SM) for the sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity study was performed for the LOFT L2-5 test, which simulates the large break loss of coolant accident. There were 14 participants in the BEMUSE (Best Estimate Methods-Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation) programme, each performing a reference calculation and 15 sensitivity runs of the LOFT L2-5 test. The important input parameters varied were break area, gap conductivity, fuel conductivity, decay power etc. For the influence of input parameters on the calculated results the FFTBM-SM was used. The only difference between FFTBM-SM and original FFTBM is that in the FFTBM-SM the signals are symmetrized to eliminate the edge effect (the so called edge is the difference between the first and last data point of one period of the signal) in calculating average amplitude. It is very important to eliminate unphysical contribution to the average amplitude, which is used as a figure of merit for input parameter influence on output parameters. The idea is to use reference calculation as 'experimental signal', 'sensitivity run' as 'calculated signal', and average amplitude as figure of merit for sensitivity instead for code accuracy. The larger is the average amplitude the larger is the influence of varied input parameter. The results show that with FFTBM-SM the analyst can get good picture of the contribution of the parameter variation to the results. They show when the input parameters are influential and how big is this influence. FFTBM-SM could be also used to quantify the influence of several parameter variations on the results. However, the influential parameters could not be

  4. Sensitivity of the luminol test with blue denim.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middlestead, Caitlyn; Thornton, John

    2010-09-01

    An article appearing in this journal in 2000 suggested that the sensitivity of the luminol test performed on denim fabric is usually no greater than at a 1:100 dilution of blood. This study shows that the luminol test may be unambiguously interpreted at substantially greater dilutions of blood. In this study, four different types of denim were tested by spraying a swatch of fabric with a typical formulation of the luminol reagent. Testing was conducted of dilutions of blood up to 1:1000, all of which showed distinct chemiluminescence. Diluted blood was applied to denim material in the form of a random number. A successful test was obtained only when a "blind" observer, i.e., an observer who was uninformed of the number, correctly reported the number. © 2010 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  5. Efficient Noninferiority Testing Procedures for Simultaneously Assessing Sensitivity and Specificity of Two Diagnostic Tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guogen Shan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Sensitivity and specificity are often used to assess the performance of a diagnostic test with binary outcomes. Wald-type test statistics have been proposed for testing sensitivity and specificity individually. In the presence of a gold standard, simultaneous comparison between two diagnostic tests for noninferiority of sensitivity and specificity based on an asymptotic approach has been studied by Chen et al. (2003. However, the asymptotic approach may suffer from unsatisfactory type I error control as observed from many studies, especially in small to medium sample settings. In this paper, we compare three unconditional approaches for simultaneously testing sensitivity and specificity. They are approaches based on estimation, maximization, and a combination of estimation and maximization. Although the estimation approach does not guarantee type I error, it has satisfactory performance with regard to type I error control. The other two unconditional approaches are exact. The approach based on estimation and maximization is generally more powerful than the approach based on maximization.

  6. Impact of imperfect test sensitivity on determining risk factors: the case of bovine tuberculosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szmaragd, Camille; Green, Laura E; Medley, Graham F; Browne, William J

    2012-01-01

    Imperfect diagnostic testing reduces the power to detect significant predictors in classical cross-sectional studies. Assuming that the misclassification in diagnosis is random this can be dealt with by increasing the sample size of a study. However, the effects of imperfect tests in longitudinal data analyses are not as straightforward to anticipate, especially if the outcome of the test influences behaviour. The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of imperfect test sensitivity on the determination of predictor variables in a longitudinal study. To deal with imperfect test sensitivity affecting the response variable, we transformed the observed response variable into a set of possible temporal patterns of true disease status, whose prior probability was a function of the test sensitivity. We fitted a Bayesian discrete time survival model using an MCMC algorithm that treats the true response patterns as unknown parameters in the model. We applied our approach to epidemiological data of bovine tuberculosis outbreaks in England and investigated the effect of reduced test sensitivity in the determination of risk factors for the disease. We found that reduced test sensitivity led to changes to the collection of risk factors associated with the probability of an outbreak that were chosen in the 'best' model and to an increase in the uncertainty surrounding the parameter estimates for a model with a fixed set of risk factors that were associated with the response variable. We propose a novel algorithm to fit discrete survival models for longitudinal data where values of the response variable are uncertain. When analysing longitudinal data, uncertainty surrounding the response variable will affect the significance of the predictors and should therefore be accounted for either at the design stage by increasing the sample size or at the post analysis stage by conducting appropriate sensitivity analyses.

  7. Impact of imperfect test sensitivity on determining risk factors: the case of bovine tuberculosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camille Szmaragd

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Imperfect diagnostic testing reduces the power to detect significant predictors in classical cross-sectional studies. Assuming that the misclassification in diagnosis is random this can be dealt with by increasing the sample size of a study. However, the effects of imperfect tests in longitudinal data analyses are not as straightforward to anticipate, especially if the outcome of the test influences behaviour. The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of imperfect test sensitivity on the determination of predictor variables in a longitudinal study. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To deal with imperfect test sensitivity affecting the response variable, we transformed the observed response variable into a set of possible temporal patterns of true disease status, whose prior probability was a function of the test sensitivity. We fitted a Bayesian discrete time survival model using an MCMC algorithm that treats the true response patterns as unknown parameters in the model. We applied our approach to epidemiological data of bovine tuberculosis outbreaks in England and investigated the effect of reduced test sensitivity in the determination of risk factors for the disease. We found that reduced test sensitivity led to changes to the collection of risk factors associated with the probability of an outbreak that were chosen in the 'best' model and to an increase in the uncertainty surrounding the parameter estimates for a model with a fixed set of risk factors that were associated with the response variable. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We propose a novel algorithm to fit discrete survival models for longitudinal data where values of the response variable are uncertain. When analysing longitudinal data, uncertainty surrounding the response variable will affect the significance of the predictors and should therefore be accounted for either at the design stage by increasing the sample size or at the post analysis stage by conducting

  8. Sensitivity of SBLOCA analysis to model nodalization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, C.; Ito, T.; Abramson, P.B.

    1983-01-01

    The recent Semiscale test S-UT-8 indicates the possibility for primary liquid to hang up in the steam generators during a SBLOCA, permitting core uncovery prior to loop-seal clearance. In analysis of Small Break Loss of Coolant Accidents with RELAP5, it is found that resultant transient behavior is quite sensitive to the selection of nodalization for the steam generators. Although global parameters such as integrated mass loss, primary inventory and primary pressure are relatively insensitive to the nodalization, it is found that the predicted distribution of inventory around the primary is significantly affected by nodalization. More detailed nodalization predicts that more of the inventory tends to remain in the steam generators, resulting in less inventory in the reactor vessel and therefore causing earlier and more severe core uncovery

  9. Sensitivity and Specificity of the Phallometric Test for Hebephilia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantor, James M; McPhail, Ian V

    2015-09-01

    The phallometric test has been examined most widely in the literature with regard to its ability to detect pedophilia; however, it has become of increasing interest to clinicians and researchers to ascertain to what extent the test accurately detects hebephilia: Whereas pedophilia refers to an adult's sexual interest in prepubescent children (age 10 or younger, on average), hebephilia refers to an adult's sexual interest in pubescent children (ages 11-14, on average). The aim of this study was to estimate the accuracy of volumetric phallometry in distinguishing pedophilic men and hebephilic men from men who are teleiophilic (primarily sexually interested in adults, age 17 or older). A retrospective chart review was conducted on the cumulate database of a large phallometric laboratory and clinic to identify a group of 239 men who committed sexual offenses against extrafamilial adults age 17 or older and a group of 996 men who committed sexual offenses against extrafamilial children age 14 or younger, all of whom professed a greater sexual interest in adults over children. The sensitivity and specificity of the phallometric test is calculated for its accuracy in distinguishing sexual preferences for children spanning various age ranges. Receiver operator characteristic curves were highly significant for each classification decision: Using its previously established cut-point of +0.25 standard deviation (SD) units, the phallometric test detected hebephilia with a sensitivity and specificity of 70.0% and 90.7%, detected pedophilia with 46.9% and 100%, and detected pedohebephilia with 75.3% and 90.7%. At a new cut-point of +0.0 SD units, the sensitivity and specificity of the test for pedophilia was 71.9% and 95.3%. Volumetric phallometry significantly distinguishes teleiophilic sex offenders from each of pedophilic, hebephilic, and pedohebephilic sex offenders and can serve as a reliable diagnostic test of sexual age preference among men who deny sexual interest in

  10. Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of Statistical Models with Missing Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hongtu; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Tang, Niansheng

    2014-04-01

    Methods for handling missing data depend strongly on the mechanism that generated the missing values, such as missing completely at random (MCAR) or missing at random (MAR), as well as other distributional and modeling assumptions at various stages. It is well known that the resulting estimates and tests may be sensitive to these assumptions as well as to outlying observations. In this paper, we introduce various perturbations to modeling assumptions and individual observations, and then develop a formal sensitivity analysis to assess these perturbations in the Bayesian analysis of statistical models with missing data. We develop a geometric framework, called the Bayesian perturbation manifold, to characterize the intrinsic structure of these perturbations. We propose several intrinsic influence measures to perform sensitivity analysis and quantify the effect of various perturbations to statistical models. We use the proposed sensitivity analysis procedure to systematically investigate the tenability of the non-ignorable missing at random (NMAR) assumption. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate our methods, and a dataset is analyzed to illustrate the use of our diagnostic measures.

  11. Development, Testing, and Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of a Transport and Reaction Simulation Engine (TaRSE) for Spatially Distributed Modeling of Phosphorus in South Florida Peat Marsh Wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jawitz, James W.; Munoz-Carpena, Rafael; Muller, Stuart; Grace, Kevin A.; James, Andrew I.

    2008-01-01

    in the phosphorus cycling mechanisms were simulated in these case studies using different combinations of phosphorus reaction equations. Changes in water column phosphorus concentrations observed under the controlled conditions of laboratory incubations, and mesocosm studies were reproduced with model simulations. Short-term phosphorus flux rates and changes in phosphorus storages were within the range of values reported in the literature, whereas unknown rate constants were used to calibrate the model output. In STA-1W Cell 4, the dominant mechanism for phosphorus flow and transport is overland flow. Over many life cycles of the biological components, however, soils accrue and become enriched in phosphorus. Inflow total phosphorus concentrations and flow rates for the period between 1995 and 2000 were used to simulate Cell 4 phosphorus removal, outflow concentrations, and soil phosphorus enrichment over time. This full-scale application of the model successfully incorporated parameter values derived from the literature and short-term experiments, and reproduced the observed long-term outflow phosphorus concentrations and increased soil phosphorus storage within the system. A global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the model was performed using modern techniques such as a qualitative screening tool (Morris method) and the quantitative, variance-based, Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) method. These techniques allowed an in-depth exploration of the effect of model complexity and flow velocity on model outputs. Three increasingly complex levels of possible application to southern Florida were studied corresponding to a simple soil pore-water and surface-water system (level 1), the addition of plankton (level 2), and of macrophytes (level 3). In the analysis for each complexity level, three surface-water velocities were considered that each correspond to residence times for the selected area (1-kilometer long) of 2, 10, and 20

  12. Tackifier Mobility in Model Pressure Sensitive Adhesives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, Adriana; Li, Xiaoqing

    1997-03-01

    A systematic study of the molecular mobility of tackifier in a pressure sensitive adhesive (PSA) has been done for the first time. The objective is to relate changes in adhesive performance with tackifier loading to tackifier mobility. Study focused first on a model PSA consisting of anionically polymerized polyisoprene (PI) (Mw=300,000 Mw/Mn 1.05) and a single simple tackifier, n-butyl ester of abietic acid. This model system is fully miscible at room temperature, and its tack performance has been studied. Tackifier mobility was measured using Pulsed-Gradient Spin-Echo NMR as a function of tackifier concentration and temperature. The concentration dependence observed for this adhesive with modestly enhanced performance was weak, indicating the tackifier neither acts to plasticize or antiplasticize appreciably. Diffusion in a two-phase system of hydrogenated PI with the same tackifier is similar, though the tack of that adhesive varies much more markedly with composition. In contrast, tackifier mobility varies strongly with composition in a PSA composed of PI with a commercial tackifier chemically similar to the model tackifier, but having a higher molecular weight and glass transition temperature. * Supported in part by US DOD: ARO(DAAH04-93-G-0410)

  13. Field test investigation of high sensitivity fiber optic seismic geophone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Meng; Min, Li; Zhang, Xiaolei; Zhang, Faxiang; Sun, Zhihui; Li, Shujuan; Wang, Chang; Zhao, Zhong; Hao, Guanghu

    2017-10-01

    Seismic reflection, whose measured signal is the artificial seismic waves ,is the most effective method and widely used in the geophysical prospecting. And this method can be used for exploration of oil, gas and coal. When a seismic wave travelling through the Earth encounters an interface between two materials with different acoustic impedances, some of the wave energy will reflect off the interface and some will refract through the interface. At its most basic, the seismic reflection technique consists of generating seismic waves and measuring the time taken for the waves to travel from the source, reflect off an interface and be detected by an array of geophones at the surface. Compared to traditional geophones such as electric, magnetic, mechanical and gas geophone, optical fiber geophones have many advantages. Optical fiber geophones can achieve sensing and signal transmission simultaneously. With the development of fiber grating sensor technology, fiber bragg grating (FBG) is being applied in seismic exploration and draws more and more attention to its advantage of anti-electromagnetic interference, high sensitivity and insensitivity to meteorological conditions. In this paper, we designed a high sensitivity geophone and tested its sensitivity, based on the theory of FBG sensing. The frequency response range is from 10 Hz to 100 Hz and the acceleration of the fiber optic seismic geophone is over 1000pm/g. sixteen-element fiber optic seismic geophone array system is presented and the field test is performed in Shengli oilfield of China. The field test shows that: (1) the fiber optic seismic geophone has a higher sensitivity than the traditional geophone between 1-100 Hz;(2) The low frequency reflection wave continuity of fiber Bragg grating geophone is better.

  14. Variance-based sensitivity analysis for wastewater treatment plant modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cosenza, Alida; Mannina, Giorgio; Vanrolleghem, Peter A; Neumann, Marc B

    2014-02-01

    Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is a valuable tool to support the use of mathematical models that characterise technical or natural systems. In the field of wastewater modelling, most of the recent applications of GSA use either regression-based methods, which require close to linear relationships between the model outputs and model factors, or screening methods, which only yield qualitative results. However, due to the characteristics of membrane bioreactors (MBR) (non-linear kinetics, complexity, etc.) there is an interest to adequately quantify the effects of non-linearity and interactions. This can be achieved with variance-based sensitivity analysis methods. In this paper, the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Testing (Extended-FAST) method is applied to an integrated activated sludge model (ASM2d) for an MBR system including microbial product formation and physical separation processes. Twenty-one model outputs located throughout the different sections of the bioreactor and 79 model factors are considered. Significant interactions among the model factors are found. Contrary to previous GSA studies for ASM models, we find the relationship between variables and factors to be non-linear and non-additive. By analysing the pattern of the variance decomposition along the plant, the model factors having the highest variance contributions were identified. This study demonstrates the usefulness of variance-based methods in membrane bioreactor modelling where, due to the presence of membranes and different operating conditions than those typically found in conventional activated sludge systems, several highly non-linear effects are present. Further, the obtained results highlight the relevant role played by the modelling approach for MBR taking into account simultaneously biological and physical processes. © 2013.

  15. Mycobacteria: laboratory methods for testing drug sensitivity and resistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canetti, G.; Froman, S.; Grosset, J.; Hauduroy, P.; Langerová, Miloslava; Mahler, H. T.; Meissner, Gertrud; Mitchison, D. A.; Šula, L.

    1963-01-01

    In its seventh report, published in 1960, the WHO Expert Committee on Tuberculosis “noted the need for international standards for the definition and determination of drug resistance which will permit comparisons to be made from one area to another, and recommended that the World Health Organization take appropriate steps to establish such standards”.10 Acting on this recommendation, WHO took the first step towards standardization by convening in Geneva, in December 1961, an informal international meeting of specialists in the bacteriology of tuberculosis. At this meeting an attempt was made to formulate prerequisites for reliable sensitivity tests and to specify the technical procedures for them. The first part of the present paper is a joint contribution by the participants in the meeting, summarizing the general conclusions reached and recommendations made with regard to tests of sensitivity to the three main antituberculosis drugs—isoniazid, streptomycin and p-aminosalicylic acid. The other three parts describe, in turn, three different tests for determining drug sensitivity—the absolute-concentration method, the resistance-ratio method and the proportion method—that are generally considered to give reasonably accurate results. PMID:14102034

  16. Cutback sensitivity test for boron-free small modular PWR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choe, J.; Shin, H. C.; Jeong, J. E.; Lee, D.

    2016-08-01

    A soluble boron-free small modular pressurized water reactor (SMPWR) uses burnable absorbers (BA) instead of soluble boron to reduce excess reactivity. As a consequence, the fuel cycle length can be shortened by the residual penalty of BA. This paper performs cutback sensitivity tests to extend the cycle length. The influence of the height of the cutback, of the 235U enrichment rate, and of the BA material on the power peaking factor (Fq), the axial offset (AO) and the fuel cycle length is analyzed with the reactor core design system, CASMO-4E/SIMULATE-3 code system.

  17. [Lymphocyte stimulation test, a possible alternative for verifying chloroacetophenone sensitization].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, C U; Schmidli, J; Ballmer-Weber, B; Hunziker, T

    1995-10-01

    We report on a case of pronounced sensitization to chloroacetophenone tear gas that developed after repeated occupational skin exposure in a 57-year-old police officer. Mainly in the presence of moisture and occlusion, cutaneous application of chloroacetophenone leads to severe irritant, and often also allergic, skin reactions. In patch testing the demonstration of allergic contact dermatitis in response to chloroacetophenone is hampered by the irritative potential of this substance even at low concentrations. This diagnostic bias can be overcome by the lymphocyte proliferation assay.

  18. Sensitivity Analysis of a process based erosion model using FAST

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabelmann, Petra; Wienhöfer, Jan; Zehe, Erwin

    2015-04-01

    deposition are related to overland flow velocity using the equation of Engelund and Hansen and the sinking velocity of grain sizes, respectively. The sensitivity analysis was performed based on virtual hillslopes similar to those in the Weiherbach catchment. We applied the FAST-method (Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test), which provides a global sensitivity analysis with comparably few model runs. We varied model parameters in predefined and, for the Weiherbach catchment, physically meaningful parameter ranges. Those parameters included rainfall intensity, surface roughness, hillslope geometry, land use, erosion resistance, and soil hydraulic parameters. The results of this study allow guiding further modelling efforts in the Weiherbach catchment with respect to data collection and model modification.

  19. Ship Model Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-15

    zero degrees angle of attack than the conventional foil at eight degrees angle of attack . This increase in lift is believed to be limited to low...Bureau of Shipping (ABS) supported this effort through the purchase of the 60 specimens used in this thesis. Metal Shark boats also provided aluminum...strength of welded aluminum panels. Metal Shark Boats, again, provided the necessary test panels for this effort. The optical extensometer was not

  20. Sensitivity analysis of Smith's AMRV model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ho, Chih-Hsiang

    1995-01-01

    Multiple-expert hazard/risk assessments have considerable precedent, particularly in the Yucca Mountain site characterization studies. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to statistical modeling in volcanic hazard assessment for the Yucca Mountain site. Specifically, we show that the expert opinion on the site disruption parameter p is elicited on the prior distribution, π (p), based on geological information that is available. Moreover, π (p) can combine all available geological information motivated by conflicting but realistic arguments (e.g., simulation, cluster analysis, structural control, etc.). The incorporated uncertainties about the probability of repository disruption p, win eventually be averaged out by taking the expectation over π (p). We use the following priors in the analysis: priors chosen for mathematical convenience: Beta (r, s) for (r, s) = (2, 2), (3, 3), (5, 5), (2, 1), (2, 8), (8, 2), and (1, 1); and three priors motivated by expert knowledge. Sensitivity analysis is performed for each prior distribution. Estimated values of hazard based on the priors chosen for mathematical simplicity are uniformly higher than those obtained based on the priors motivated by expert knowledge. And, the model using the prior, Beta (8,2), yields the highest hazard (= 2.97 X 10 -2 ). The minimum hazard is produced by the open-quotes three-expert priorclose quotes (i.e., values of p are equally likely at 10 -3 10 -2 , and 10 -1 ). The estimate of the hazard is 1.39 x which is only about one order of magnitude smaller than the maximum value. The term, open-quotes hazardclose quotes, is defined as the probability of at least one disruption of a repository at the Yucca Mountain site by basaltic volcanism for the next 10,000 years

  1. Sensitive Superconducting Gravity Gradiometer Constructed with Levitated Test Masses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griggs, C. E.; Moody, M. V.; Norton, R. S.; Paik, H. J.; Venkateswara, K.

    2017-12-01

    We demonstrate basic operations of a two-component superconducting gravity gradiometer (SGG) that is constructed with a pair of magnetically levitated test masses coupled to superconducting quantum-interference devices. A design that gives a potential sensitivity of 1.4 ×10-4 E Hz-1 /2 (1 E ≡10-9 s-2 ) in the frequency band of 1 to 50 mHz and better than 2 ×10-5 E Hz-1 /2 between 0.1 and 1 mHz for a compact tensor SGG that fits within a 22-cm-diameter sphere. The SGG has the capability of rejecting the platform acceleration and jitter in all 6 degrees of freedom to one part in 109 . Such an instrument has applications in precision tests of fundamental laws of physics, earthquake early warning, and gravity mapping of Earth and the planets.

  2. Sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zi, Z

    2011-11-01

    With the rising application of systems biology, sensitivity analysis methods have been widely applied to study the biological systems, including metabolic networks, signalling pathways and genetic circuits. Sensitivity analysis can provide valuable insights about how robust the biological responses are with respect to the changes of biological parameters and which model inputs are the key factors that affect the model outputs. In addition, sensitivity analysis is valuable for guiding experimental analysis, model reduction and parameter estimation. Local and global sensitivity analysis approaches are the two types of sensitivity analysis that are commonly applied in systems biology. Local sensitivity analysis is a classic method that studies the impact of small perturbations on the model outputs. On the other hand, global sensitivity analysis approaches have been applied to understand how the model outputs are affected by large variations of the model input parameters. In this review, the author introduces the basic concepts of sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models. Moreover, the author discusses the advantages and disadvantages of different sensitivity analysis methods, how to choose a proper sensitivity analysis approach, the available sensitivity analysis tools for systems biology models and the caveats in the interpretation of sensitivity analysis results.

  3. Sensitivity study of reduced models of the activated sludge process ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The problem of derivation and calculation of sensitivity functions for all parameters of the mass balance reduced model of the COST benchmark activated sludge plant is formulated and solved. The sensitivity functions, equations and augmented sensitivity state space models are derived for the cases of ASM1 and UCT ...

  4. Odor-Specific Loss of Smell Sensitivity with Age as Revealed by the Specific Sensitivity Test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seow, Yi-Xin; Ong, Peter K C; Huang, Dejian

    2016-07-01

    The perception of odor mixtures plays an important role in human food intake, behavior, and emotions. Decline of smell acuity with normal aging could impact food perception and preferences at various ages. However, since the landmark Smell Survey by National Geographic, little has been elucidated on differences in the onset and extent of loss in olfactory sensitivity toward single odorants. Here, using the Specific Sensitivity test, we show the onset and extent of loss in both identification and detection thresholds of odorants with age are odorant-specific. Subjects of Chinese descent in Singapore (186 women, 95 men), aged 21-80 years, were assessed for olfactory sensitivity of 10 odorants from various odor groups. Notably, subjects in their 70s required 179 times concentration of rose-like odorant (2-phenylethanol) than subjects in the 20s, while thresholds for onion-like 2-methyloxolane-3-thiol only differed by 3 times between the age groups. In addition, identification rate for 2-phenylethanol was negatively correlated with age throughout adult life whereas mushroom-like oct-1-en-3-ol was equally identified by subjects across all ages. Our results demonstrated the girth of differentiated olfactory loss due to normal ageing, which potentially affect overall perception and preferences of odor mixtures with age. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. Model-Based Security Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ina Schieferdecker

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Security testing aims at validating software system requirements related to security properties like confidentiality, integrity, authentication, authorization, availability, and non-repudiation. Although security testing techniques are available for many years, there has been little approaches that allow for specification of test cases at a higher level of abstraction, for enabling guidance on test identification and specification as well as for automated test generation. Model-based security testing (MBST is a relatively new field and especially dedicated to the systematic and efficient specification and documentation of security test objectives, security test cases and test suites, as well as to their automated or semi-automated generation. In particular, the combination of security modelling and test generation approaches is still a challenge in research and of high interest for industrial applications. MBST includes e.g. security functional testing, model-based fuzzing, risk- and threat-oriented testing, and the usage of security test patterns. This paper provides a survey on MBST techniques and the related models as well as samples of new methods and tools that are under development in the European ITEA2-project DIAMONDS.

  6. State of the art in non-animal approaches for skin sensitization testing: from individual test methods towards testing strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezendam, Janine; Braakhuis, Hedwig M; Vandebriel, Rob J

    2016-12-01

    The hazard assessment of skin sensitizers relies mainly on animal testing, but much progress is made in the development, validation and regulatory acceptance and implementation of non-animal predictive approaches. In this review, we provide an update on the available computational tools and animal-free test methods for the prediction of skin sensitization hazard. These individual test methods address mostly one mechanistic step of the process of skin sensitization induction. The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) for skin sensitization describes the key events (KEs) that lead to skin sensitization. In our review, we have clustered the available test methods according to the KE they inform: the molecular initiating event (MIE/KE1)-protein binding, KE2-keratinocyte activation, KE3-dendritic cell activation and KE4-T cell activation and proliferation. In recent years, most progress has been made in the development and validation of in vitro assays that address KE2 and KE3. No standardized in vitro assays for T cell activation are available; thus, KE4 cannot be measured in vitro. Three non-animal test methods, addressing either the MIE, KE2 or KE3, are accepted as OECD test guidelines, and this has accelerated the development of integrated or defined approaches for testing and assessment (e.g. testing strategies). The majority of these approaches are mechanism-based, since they combine results from multiple test methods and/or computational tools that address different KEs of the AOP to estimate skin sensitization potential and sometimes potency. Other approaches are based on statistical tools. Until now, eleven different testing strategies have been published, the majority using the same individual information sources. Our review shows that some of the defined approaches to testing and assessment are able to accurately predict skin sensitization hazard, sometimes even more accurate than the currently used animal test. A few defined approaches are developed to provide an

  7. Global sensitivity analysis of thermomechanical models in modelling of welding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petelet, M.

    2008-01-01

    Current approach of most welding modellers is to content themselves with available material data, and to chose a mechanical model that seems to be appropriate. Among inputs, those controlling the material properties are one of the key problems of welding simulation: material data are never characterized over a sufficiently wide temperature range. This way to proceed neglect the influence of the uncertainty of input data on the result given by the computer code. In this case, how to assess the credibility of prediction? This thesis represents a step in the direction of implementing an innovative approach in welding simulation in order to bring answers to this question, with an illustration on some concretes welding cases.The global sensitivity analysis is chosen to determine which material properties are the most sensitive in a numerical welding simulation and in which range of temperature. Using this methodology require some developments to sample and explore the input space covering welding of different steel materials. Finally, input data have been divided in two groups according to their influence on the output of the model (residual stress or distortion). In this work, complete methodology of the global sensitivity analysis has been successfully applied to welding simulation and lead to reduce the input space to the only important variables. Sensitivity analysis has provided answers to what can be considered as one of the probable frequently asked questions regarding welding simulation: for a given material which properties must be measured with a good accuracy and which ones can be simply extrapolated or taken from a similar material? (author)

  8. Sensitivity Analysis of OECD Benchmark Tests in BISON

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swiler, Laura Painton [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gamble, Kyle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Schmidt, Rodney C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Williamson, Richard [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-09-01

    This report summarizes a NEAMS (Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation) project focused on sensitivity analysis of a fuels performance benchmark problem. The benchmark problem was defined by the Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling working group of the Nuclear Science Committee, part of the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD ). The benchmark problem involv ed steady - state behavior of a fuel pin in a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The problem was created in the BISON Fuels Performance code. Dakota was used to generate and analyze 300 samples of 17 input parameters defining core boundary conditions, manuf acturing tolerances , and fuel properties. There were 24 responses of interest, including fuel centerline temperatures at a variety of locations and burnup levels, fission gas released, axial elongation of the fuel pin, etc. Pearson and Spearman correlatio n coefficients and Sobol' variance - based indices were used to perform the sensitivity analysis. This report summarizes the process and presents results from this study.

  9. Method-independent, Computationally Frugal Convergence Testing for Sensitivity Analysis Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mai, J.; Tolson, B.

    2017-12-01

    The increasing complexity and runtime of environmental models lead to the current situation that the calibration of all model parameters or the estimation of all of their uncertainty is often computationally infeasible. Hence, techniques to determine the sensitivity of model parameters are used to identify most important parameters. All subsequent model calibrations or uncertainty estimation procedures focus then only on these subsets of parameters and are hence less computational demanding. While the examination of the convergence of calibration and uncertainty methods is state-of-the-art, the convergence of the sensitivity methods is usually not checked. If any, bootstrapping of the sensitivity results is used to determine the reliability of the estimated indexes. Bootstrapping, however, might as well become computationally expensive in case of large model outputs and a high number of bootstraps. We, therefore, present a Model Variable Augmentation (MVA) approach to check the convergence of sensitivity indexes without performing any additional model run. This technique is method- and model-independent. It can be applied either during the sensitivity analysis (SA) or afterwards. The latter case enables the checking of already processed sensitivity indexes. To demonstrate the method's independency of the convergence testing method, we applied it to two widely used, global SA methods: the screening method known as Morris method or Elementary Effects (Morris 1991) and the variance-based Sobol' method (Solbol' 1993). The new convergence testing method is first scrutinized using 12 analytical benchmark functions (Cuntz & Mai et al. 2015) where the true indexes of aforementioned three methods are known. This proof of principle shows that the method reliably determines the uncertainty of the SA results when different budgets are used for the SA. The results show that the new frugal method is able to test the convergence and therefore the reliability of SA results in an

  10. The Sensitivity of Evapotranspiration Models to Errors in Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Three levels of sensitivity, herein termed sensitivity, ratings, were established, namely: Highly Sensitive (Rating:1); Moderately sensitive' (Rating:2); and 'not too sensitive'(Rating: 3). The ratings were based on the amount of error in the measured parameter to introduce + 10% relative error in the predicted Et. The level of ...

  11. A Workflow for Global Sensitivity Analysis of PBPK Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin eMcNally

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Physiologically based pharmacokinetic models have a potentially significant role in the development of a reliable predictive toxicity testing strategy. The structure of PBPK models are ideal frameworks into which disparate in vitro and in vivo data can be integrated and utilised to translate information generated, using alternative to animal measures of toxicity and human biological monitoring data, into plausible corresponding exposures. However, these models invariably include the description of well known non-linear biological processes such as, enzyme saturation and interactions between parameters such as, organ mass and body mass. Therefore, an appropriate sensitivity analysis technique is required which can quantify the influences associated with individual parameters, interactions between parameters and any non-linear processes. In this report we have defined a workflow for sensitivity analysis of PBPK models that is computationally feasible, accounts for interactions between parameters, and can be displayed in the form of a bar chart and cumulative sum line (Lowry plot, which we believe is intuitive and appropriate for toxicologists, risk assessors and regulators.

  12. Personalization of models with many model parameters: an efficient sensitivity analysis approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donders, W P; Huberts, W; van de Vosse, F N; Delhaas, T

    2015-10-01

    Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis are indispensable for patient-specific applications of models that enhance diagnosis or aid decision-making. Variance-based sensitivity analysis methods, which apportion each fraction of the output uncertainty (variance) to the effects of individual input parameters or their interactions, are considered the gold standard. The variance portions are called the Sobol sensitivity indices and can be estimated by a Monte Carlo (MC) approach (e.g., Saltelli's method [1]) or by employing a metamodel (e.g., the (generalized) polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE) [2, 3]). All these methods require a large number of model evaluations when estimating the Sobol sensitivity indices for models with many parameters [4]. To reduce the computational cost, we introduce a two-step approach. In the first step, a subset of important parameters is identified for each output of interest using the screening method of Morris [5]. In the second step, a quantitative variance-based sensitivity analysis is performed using gPCE. Efficient sampling strategies are introduced to minimize the number of model runs required to obtain the sensitivity indices for models considering multiple outputs. The approach is tested using a model that was developed for predicting post-operative flows after creation of a vascular access for renal failure patients. We compare the sensitivity indices obtained with the novel two-step approach with those obtained from a reference analysis that applies Saltelli's MC method. The two-step approach was found to yield accurate estimates of the sensitivity indices at two orders of magnitude lower computational cost. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Evaluating sub-national building-energy efficiency policy options under uncertainty: Efficient sensitivity testing of alternative climate, technological, and socioeconomic futures in a regional integrated-assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Zhou, Yuyu; Rice, Jennie S.; Patel, Pralit L.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Page Kyle, G.; Kim, Son H.; Eom, Jiyong

    2014-01-01

    Improving the energy efficiency of building stock, commercial equipment, and household appliances can have a major positive impact on energy use, carbon emissions, and building services. Sub-national regions such as the U.S. states wish to increase energy efficiency, reduce carbon emissions, or adapt to climate change. Evaluating sub-national policies to reduce energy use and emissions is difficult because of the large uncertainties in socioeconomic factors, technology performance and cost, and energy and climate policies. Climate change itself may undercut such policies. However, assessing all of the uncertainties of large-scale energy and climate models by performing thousands of model runs can be a significant modeling effort with its accompanying computational burden. By applying fractional–factorial methods to the GCAM-USA 50-state integrated-assessment model in the context of a particular policy question, this paper demonstrates how a decision-focused sensitivity analysis strategy can greatly reduce computational burden in the presence of uncertainty and reveal the important drivers for decisions and more detailed uncertainty analysis. - Highlights: • We evaluate building energy codes and standards for climate mitigation. • We use an integrated assessment model and fractional factorial methods. • Decision criteria are energy use, CO2 emitted, and building service cost. • We demonstrate sensitivity analysis for three states. • We identify key variables to propagate with Monte Carlo or surrogate models

  14. The basophil activation test: a sensitive test in the diagnosis of allergic immediate hypersensitivity to pristinamycin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viel, Sébastien; Garnier, Lorna; Joly, Elodie; Rouzaire, Paul; Nosbaum, Audrey; Pralong, Pauline; Faudel, Amélie; Rioufol, Catherine; Bienvenu, Françoise; Bienvenu, Jacques; Berard, Frédéric

    2015-01-01

    Immediate hypersensitivity (IHS) reactions to macrolides and to macrolide-derived antibiotics like pristinamycin are uncommon. In this context, there is little data available to appreciate the true value of biological tools regarding the diagnosis of immediate allergy to pristinamycin. Here we assess the clinical usefulness of the basophil activation test (BAT) to differentiate allergic from nonallergic IHS to pristinamycin. Thirty-six patients were tested with skin tests as the gold standard and BAT. The BAT achieved a sensitivity of 76% and a specificity of 100%, implying an absence of false positive results. Multicenter studies remain to be performed to better define the sensitivity, specificity and interlaboratory variation of BAT in the diagnosis of allergy to pristinamycin and macrolides. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  15. The Hug-up Test: A New, Sensitive Diagnostic Test for Supraspinatus Tears

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Lei Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The supraspinatus tendon is the most commonly affected tendon in rotator cuff tears. Early detection of a supraspinatus tear using an accurate physical examination is, therefore, important. However, the currently used physical tests for detecting supraspinatus tears are poor diagnostic indicators and involve a wide range of sensitivity and specificity values. Therefore, the aim of this study was to establish a new physical test for the diagnosis of supraspinatus tears and evaluate its accuracy in comparison with conventional tests. Methods: Between November 2012 and January 2014, 200 consecutive patients undergoing shoulder arthroscopy were prospectively evaluated preoperatively. The hug-up test, empty can (EC test, full can (FC test, Neer impingement sign, and Hawkins-Kennedy impingement sign were used and compared statistically for their accuracy in terms of supraspinatus tears, with arthroscopic findings as the gold standard. Muscle strength was precisely quantified using an electronic digital tensiometer. Results: The prevalence of supraspinatus tears was 76.5%. The hug-up test demonstrated the highest sensitivity (94.1%, with a low negative likelihood ratio (NLR, 0.08 and comparable specificity (76.6% compared with the other four tests. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the hug-up test was 0.854, with no statistical difference compared with the EC test (z = 1.438, P = 0.075 or the FC test (z = 1.498, P = 0.067. The hug-up test showed no statistical difference in terms of detecting different tear patterns according to the position (χ2 = 0.578, P = 0.898 and size (Fisher′s exact test, P > 0.999 compared with the arthroscopic examination. The interobserver reproducibility of the hug-up test was high, with a kappa coefficient of 0.823. Conclusions: The hug-up test can accurately detect supraspinatus tears with a high sensitivity, comparable specificity, and low NLR compared with the conventional

  16. Superheater hydraulic model test plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gabler, M.; Oliva, R.M.

    1973-10-01

    The plan for conducting a hydraulic test on a full scale model of the AI Steam Generator Module design is presented. The model will incorporate all items necessary to simulate the hydraulic performance characteristics of the superheater but will utilize materials other than the 2-1/4 Cr - 1 Mo in its construction in order to minimize costs and expedite schedule. Testing will be performed in the Rockwell International Rocketdyne High Flow Test Facility which is capable of flowing up to 32,00 gpm of water at ambient temperatures. All necessary support instrumentation is also available at this facility.

  17. Oral sensitization to food proteins: A Brown Norway rat model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knippels, L.M.J.; Penninks, A.H.; Spanhaak, S.; Houben, G.F.

    1998-01-01

    Background: Although several in vivo antigenicity assays using parenteral immunization are operational, no adequate enteral sensitization models are available to study food allergy and allergenicity of food proteins. Objective: This paper describes the development of an enteral model for food

  18. sensitivity analysis on flexible road pavement life cycle cost model

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    Sensitivity analysis is a tool used in the assessment of a model's performance. This study examined the application of sensitivity analysis on a developed flexible pavement life cycle cost model using varying discount rate. The study area is Effurun, Uvwie Local Government Area of Delta State of Nigeria. In order to ...

  19. Combined calibration and sensitivity analysis for a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perk, van der M.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    1995-01-01

    A study was performed to quantify the error in results of a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland, due to uncertainties in calibrated model parameters. The procedure used in this study combines calibration and sensitivity analysis. Finally,the model was validated to test the model

  20. A dataset on 145 chemicals tested in alternative assays for skin sensitization undergoing prevalidation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natsch, Andreas; Ryan, Cindy A; Foertsch, Leslie; Emter, Roger; Jaworska, Joanna; Gerberick, Frank; Kern, Petra

    2013-11-01

    Skin sensitization is a key endpoint for cosmetic ingredients, with a forthcoming ban for animal testing in Europe. Four alternative tests have so far been submitted to ECVAM prevalidation: (i) MUSST and (ii) h-Clat assess surface markers on dendritic cell lines, (iii) the direct peptide reactivity assay (DPRA) measures reactivity with model peptides and (iv) the KeratinoSens(TM) assay which is based on detection of Nrf2-induced luciferase. It is anticipated that only an integrated testing strategy (ITS) based on a battery of tests might give a full replacement providing also a sensitization potency assessment, but this concept should be tested with a data-driven analysis. Here we report a database on 145 chemicals reporting the quantitative endpoints measured in a U937- test, the DPRA and KeratinoSens(TM) . It can serve to develop data-driven ITS approaches as we show in a parallel paper and provides a view as to the current ability to predict with in vitro tests as we are entering 2013. It may also serve as reference database when benchmarking new molecules with in vitro based read-across and find use as a reference database when evaluating new tests. The tests and combinations thereof were evaluated for predictivity, and overall a similar predictivity was found as before on three-fold smaller datasets. Analysis of the dose-response parameters of the individual tests indicates a correlation to sensitization potency. Detailed analysis of chemicals false-negative and false-positive in two tests helped to define limitations in the tests but also in the database derived from animal studies. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Global sensitivity analysis of computer models with functional inputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iooss, Bertrand; Ribatet, Mathieu

    2009-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the response variability of a numerical model. The common quantitative methods are appropriate with computer codes having scalar model inputs. This paper aims at illustrating different variance-based sensitivity analysis techniques, based on the so-called Sobol's indices, when some model inputs are functional, such as stochastic processes or random spatial fields. In this work, we focus on large cpu time computer codes which need a preliminary metamodeling step before performing the sensitivity analysis. We propose the use of the joint modeling approach, i.e., modeling simultaneously the mean and the dispersion of the code outputs using two interlinked generalized linear models (GLMs) or generalized additive models (GAMs). The 'mean model' allows to estimate the sensitivity indices of each scalar model inputs, while the 'dispersion model' allows to derive the total sensitivity index of the functional model inputs. The proposed approach is compared to some classical sensitivity analysis methodologies on an analytical function. Lastly, the new methodology is applied to an industrial computer code that simulates the nuclear fuel irradiation.

  2. A Sensitivity Study of the Navier-Stokes- α Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breckling, Sean; Neda, Monika

    2017-11-01

    We present a sensitivity study of the of the Navier Stokes- α model (NS α) with respect to perturbations of the differential filter length α. Parameter-sensitivity is evaluated using the sensitivity equations method. Once formulated, the sensitivity equations are discretized and computed alongside the NS α model using the same finite elements in space, and Crank-Nicolson in time. We provide a complete stability analysis of the scheme, along with the sensitivity results of several benchmark problems in both 2D and 3D. We further demonstrate a practical technique to determine the reliability of the NS α model in problem-specific settings. Lastly, we investigate the sensitivity and reliability of important functionals of the velocity and pressure solutions.

  3. Methods for testing transport models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singer, C.; Cox, D.

    1991-01-01

    Substantial progress has been made over the past year on six aspects of the work supported by this grant. As a result, we have in hand for the first time a fairly complete set of transport models and improved statistical methods for testing them against large databases. We also have initial results of such tests. These results indicate that careful application of presently available transport theories can reasonably well produce a remarkably wide variety of tokamak data

  4. Comparing sensitivity analysis methods to advance lumped watershed model identification and evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Tang

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This study seeks to identify sensitivity tools that will advance our understanding of lumped hydrologic models for the purposes of model improvement, calibration efficiency and improved measurement schemes. Four sensitivity analysis methods were tested: (1 local analysis using parameter estimation software (PEST, (2 regional sensitivity analysis (RSA, (3 analysis of variance (ANOVA, and (4 Sobol's method. The methods' relative efficiencies and effectiveness have been analyzed and compared. These four sensitivity methods were applied to the lumped Sacramento soil moisture accounting model (SAC-SMA coupled with SNOW-17. Results from this study characterize model sensitivities for two medium sized watersheds within the Juniata River Basin in Pennsylvania, USA. Comparative results for the 4 sensitivity methods are presented for a 3-year time series with 1 h, 6 h, and 24 h time intervals. The results of this study show that model parameter sensitivities are heavily impacted by the choice of analysis method as well as the model time interval. Differences between the two adjacent watersheds also suggest strong influences of local physical characteristics on the sensitivity methods' results. This study also contributes a comprehensive assessment of the repeatability, robustness, efficiency, and ease-of-implementation of the four sensitivity methods. Overall ANOVA and Sobol's method were shown to be superior to RSA and PEST. Relative to one another, ANOVA has reduced computational requirements and Sobol's method yielded more robust sensitivity rankings.

  5. Multivariate models for skin sensitization hazard and potency

    Science.gov (United States)

    One of the top priorities being addressed by ICCVAM is the identification and validation of non-animal alternatives for skin sensitization testing. Although skin sensitization is a complex process, the key biological events have been well characterized in an adverse outcome pathw...

  6. Sensitivity Analysis of the Gap Heat Transfer Model in BISON.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swiler, Laura Painton; Schmidt, Rodney C.; Williamson, Richard (INL); Perez, Danielle (INL)

    2014-10-01

    This report summarizes the result of a NEAMS project focused on sensitivity analysis of the heat transfer model in the gap between the fuel rod and the cladding used in the BISON fuel performance code of Idaho National Laboratory. Using the gap heat transfer models in BISON, the sensitivity of the modeling parameters and the associated responses is investigated. The study results in a quantitative assessment of the role of various parameters in the analysis of gap heat transfer in nuclear fuel.

  7. Visualization of nonlinear kernel models in neuroimaging by sensitivity maps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Peter Mondrup; Hansen, Lars Kai; Madsen, Kristoffer Hougaard

    show that the performance of linear models is reduced for certain scan labelings/categorizations in this data set, while the nonlinear models provide more flexibility. We show that the sensitivity map can be used to visualize nonlinear versions of kernel logistic regression, the kernel Fisher...... discriminant, and the SVM, and conclude that the sensitivity map is a versatile and computationally efficient tool for visualization of nonlinear kernel models in neuroimaging...

  8. Quantum dot-based immunochromatography test strip for rapid, quantitative and sensitive detection of alpha fetoprotein.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Qiuhua; Gong, Xiaoqun; Song, Tao; Yang, Jiumin; Zhu, Shengjiang; Li, Yunhong; Cui, Ye; Li, Yingxin; Zhang, Bingbo; Chang, Jin

    2011-12-15

    Rapid, quantitative detection of tumor markers with high sensitivity and specificity is critical to clinical diagnosis and treatment of cancer. We describe here a novel portable fluorescent biosensor that integrates quantum dot (QD) with an immunochromatography test strip (ICTS) and a home-made test strip reader for detection of tumor markers in human serum. Alpha fetoprotein (AFP), which is valuable for diagnosis of primary hepatic carcinoma, is used as a model tumor marker to demonstrate the performance of the proposed immunosensor. The principle of this sensor is on the basis of a sandwich immunoreaction that was performed on an ICTS. The fluorescence intensity of captured QD labels on the test line and control line served as signals was determined by the home-made test strip reader. The strong luminescence and robust photostability of QDs combined with the promising advantages of an ICTS and sensitive detection with the test strip reader result in good performance. Under optimal conditions, this biosensor is capable of detecting as low as 1 ng/mL AFP standard analyte in 10 min with only 50 μL sample volume. Furthermore, 1000 clinical human serum samples were tested by both the QD-based ICTS and a commercial electrochemiluminescence immunoassay AFP kit simultaneously to estimate the sensitivity, specificity and concordance of the assays. Results showed high consistency except for 24 false positive cases (false positive rate 3.92%) and 17 false negative cases (false negative rate 4.38%); the error rate was 4.10% in all. This demonstrates that the QD-based ICTS is capable of rapid, sensitive, and quantitative detection of AFP and shows a great promise for point-of-care testing of other tumor markers. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Visualization of nonlinear kernel models in neuroimaging by sensitivity maps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, P.M.; Madsen, Kristoffer H; Lund, T.E.

    on visualization of such nonlinear kernel models. Specifically, we investigate the sensitivity map as a technique for generation of global summary maps of kernel classification methods. We illustrate the performance of the sensitivity map on functional magnetic resonance (fMRI) data based on visual stimuli. We...... show that the performance of linear models is reduced for certain scan labelings/categorizations in this data set, while the nonlinear models provide more flexibility. We show that the sensitivity map can be used to visualize nonlinear versions of kernel logistic regression, the kernel Fisher...

  10. NET model coil test possibilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erb, J.; Gruenhagen, A.; Herz, W.; Jentzsch, K.; Komarek, P.; Lotz, E.; Malang, S.; Maurer, W.; Noether, G.; Ulbricht, A.; Vogt, A.; Zahn, G.; Horvath, I.; Kwasnitza, K.; Marinucci, C.; Pasztor, G.; Sborchia, C.; Weymuth, P.; Peters, A.; Roeterdink, A.

    1987-11-01

    A single full size coil for NET/INTOR represents an investment of the order of 40 MUC (Million Unit Costs). Before such an amount of money or even more for the 16 TF coils is invested as much risks as possible must be eliminated by a comprehensive development programme. In the course of such a programme a coil technology verification test should finally prove the feasibility of NET/INTOR TF coils. This study report is almost exclusively dealing with such a verification test by model coil testing. These coils will be built out of two Nb 3 Sn-conductors based on two concepts already under development and investigation. Two possible coil arrangements are discussed: A cluster facility, where two model coils out of the two Nb 3 TF-conductors are used, and the already tested LCT-coils producing a background field. A solenoid arrangement, where in addition to the two TF model coils another model coil out of a PF-conductor for the central PF-coils of NET/INTOR is used instead of LCT background coils. Technical advantages and disadvantages are worked out in order to compare and judge both facilities. Costs estimates and the time schedules broaden the base for a decision about the realisation of such a facility. (orig.) [de

  11. Evolution of Geometric Sensitivity Derivatives from Computer Aided Design Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, William T.; Lazzara, David; Haimes, Robert

    2010-01-01

    The generation of design parameter sensitivity derivatives is required for gradient-based optimization. Such sensitivity derivatives are elusive at best when working with geometry defined within the solid modeling context of Computer-Aided Design (CAD) systems. Solid modeling CAD systems are often proprietary and always complex, thereby necessitating ad hoc procedures to infer parameter sensitivity. A new perspective is presented that makes direct use of the hierarchical associativity of CAD features to trace their evolution and thereby track design parameter sensitivity. In contrast to ad hoc methods, this method provides a more concise procedure following the model design intent and determining the sensitivity of CAD geometry directly to its respective defining parameters.

  12. Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Alternative Rn-222 Flux Density Models Used in Performance Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greg J. Shott, Vefa Yucel, Lloyd Desotell

    2007-06-01

    Performance assessments for the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site on the Nevada Test Site have used three different mathematical models to estimate Rn-222 flux density. This study describes the performance, uncertainty, and sensitivity of the three models which include the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide 3.64 analytical method and two numerical methods. The uncertainty of each model was determined by Monte Carlo simulation using Latin hypercube sampling. The global sensitivity was investigated using Morris one-at-time screening method, sample-based correlation and regression methods, the variance-based extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, and Sobol's sensitivity indices. The models were found to produce similar estimates of the mean and median flux density, but to have different uncertainties and sensitivities. When the Rn-222 effective diffusion coefficient was estimated using five different published predictive models, the radon flux density models were found to be most sensitive to the effective diffusion coefficient model selected, the emanation coefficient, and the radionuclide inventory. Using a site-specific measured effective diffusion coefficient significantly reduced the output uncertainty. When a site-specific effective-diffusion coefficient was used, the models were most sensitive to the emanation coefficient and the radionuclide inventory.

  13. Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Alternative Rn-222 Flux Density Models Used in Performance Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greg J. Shott, Vefa Yucel, Lloyd Desotell Non-Nstec Authors: G. Pyles and Jon Carilli

    2007-01-01

    Performance assessments for the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site on the Nevada Test Site have used three different mathematical models to estimate Rn-222 flux density. This study describes the performance, uncertainty, and sensitivity of the three models which include the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide 3.64 analytical method and two numerical methods. The uncertainty of each model was determined by Monte Carlo simulation using Latin hypercube sampling. The global sensitivity was investigated using Morris one-at-time screening method, sample-based correlation and regression methods, the variance-based extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, and Sobol's sensitivity indices. The models were found to produce similar estimates of the mean and median flux density, but to have different uncertainties and sensitivities. When the Rn-222 effective diffusion coefficient was estimated using five different published predictive models, the radon flux density models were found to be most sensitive to the effective diffusion coefficient model selected, the emanation coefficient, and the radionuclide inventory. Using a site-specific measured effective diffusion coefficient significantly reduced the output uncertainty. When a site-specific effective-diffusion coefficient was used, the models were most sensitive to the emanation coefficient and the radionuclide inventory

  14. Sensitivity of hydrological performance assessment analysis to variations in material properties, conceptual models, and ventilation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sobolik, S.R.; Ho, C.K.; Dunn, E. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Robey, T.H. [Spectra Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Cruz, W.T. [Univ. del Turabo, Gurabo (Puerto Rico)

    1996-07-01

    The Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project is studying Yucca Mountain in southwestern Nevada as a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository. Site characterization includes surface- based and underground testing. Analyses have been performed to support the design of an Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) and the design of the tests performed as part of the characterization process, in order to ascertain that they have minimal impact on the natural ability of the site to isolate waste. The information in this report pertains to sensitivity studies evaluating previous hydrological performance assessment analyses to variation in the material properties, conceptual models, and ventilation models, and the implications of this sensitivity on previous recommendations supporting ESF design. This document contains information that has been used in preparing recommendations for Appendix I of the Exploratory Studies Facility Design Requirements document.

  15. Sensitivity of hydrological performance assessment analysis to variations in material properties, conceptual models, and ventilation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sobolik, S.R.; Ho, C.K.; Dunn, E.; Robey, T.H.; Cruz, W.T.

    1996-07-01

    The Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project is studying Yucca Mountain in southwestern Nevada as a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository. Site characterization includes surface- based and underground testing. Analyses have been performed to support the design of an Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) and the design of the tests performed as part of the characterization process, in order to ascertain that they have minimal impact on the natural ability of the site to isolate waste. The information in this report pertains to sensitivity studies evaluating previous hydrological performance assessment analyses to variation in the material properties, conceptual models, and ventilation models, and the implications of this sensitivity on previous recommendations supporting ESF design. This document contains information that has been used in preparing recommendations for Appendix I of the Exploratory Studies Facility Design Requirements document

  16. Sensitivity Analysis of a Simplified Fire Dynamic Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt; Nielsen, Anker

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses a method for performing a sensitivity analysis of parameters used in a simplified fire model for temperature estimates in the upper smoke layer during a fire. The results from the sensitivity analysis can be used when individual parameters affecting fire safety are assessed...

  17. Modeling retinal high and low contrast sensitivity filters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lourens, T; Mira, J; Sandoval, F

    1995-01-01

    In this paper two types of ganglion cells in the visual system of mammals (monkey) are modeled. A high contrast sensitive type, the so called M-cells, which project to the two magno-cellular layers of the lateral geniculate nucleus (LGN) and a low sensitive type, the P-cells, which project to the

  18. Alternative testing methods for skin sensitization: NMR spectroscopy for probing the reactivity and classification of potential skin sensitizers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chittiboyina, Amar G; Avonto, Cristina; Rua, Diego; Khan, Ikhlas A

    2015-09-21

    Evaluating consumer products for potentially harmful side effects of chemical ingredients is important for the protection of both the consumer and those involved in the manufacturing process. In order to assess the risk potential of chemicals, regulatory agencies have encouraged the development of several in silico, in vitro, and in chemico methods as alternatives to eliminate or minimize the use of animals. To add structural information to the existing in chemico methods, an NMR-based method is proposed for probing the reactivity and classification of the potential electrophiles (E) using a model thiol, DCYA, as a nucleophile. The major advantage of the NMR method is the quantitation of the actual adduct, DCYA-E. The degree of reaction is here provided as a direct measurement of adduct formation and/or electrophile depletion, in contrast to other in chemico assays, e.g., ADRA and DPRA, where the reactivity is inferred from the quantification of the test nucleophile depletion. Moreover, the developed NMR method should serve as a qualitative and quantitative tool in understanding the site of reaction and other structural information associated with test sensitizer. This is particularly valuable and advantageous over methods encouraged by regulatory agencies, which merely provide quantification of the reaction but lack any structural information. Several compounds with multiple reaction sites were successfully tested with the proposed NMR method. Otherwise, these compounds have proven to be a challenge to identify and classify using existing alternative methods.

  19. Sensitivity of Mantel Haenszel Model and Rasch Model as Viewed From Sample Size

    OpenAIRE

    ALWI, IDRUS

    2011-01-01

    The aims of this research is to study the sensitivity comparison of Mantel Haenszel and Rasch Model for detection differential item functioning, observed from the sample size. These two differential item functioning (DIF) methods were compared using simulate binary item respon data sets of varying sample size,  200 and 400 examinees were used in the analyses, a detection method of differential item functioning (DIF) based on gender difference. These test conditions were replication 4 tim...

  20. Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Accuracy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarrazin, F.; Pianosi, F.; Hartmann, A. J.; Wagener, T.

    2014-12-01

    Sensitivity analysis aims to characterize the impact that changes in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). It is a valuable diagnostic tool for model understanding and for model improvement, it enhances calibration efficiency, and it supports uncertainty and scenario analysis. It is of particular interest for environmental models because they are often complex, non-linear, non-monotonic and exhibit strong interactions between their parameters. However, sensitivity analysis has to be carefully implemented to produce reliable results at moderate computational cost. For example, sample size can have a strong impact on the results and has to be carefully chosen. Yet, there is little guidance available for this step in environmental modelling. The objective of the present study is to provide guidelines for a robust sensitivity analysis, in order to support modellers in making appropriate choices for its implementation and in interpreting its outcome. We considered hydrological models with increasing level of complexity. We tested four sensitivity analysis methods, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, Method of Morris, a density-based (PAWN) and a variance-based (Sobol) method. The convergence and variability of sensitivity indices were investigated. We used bootstrapping to assess and improve the robustness of sensitivity indices even for limited sample sizes. Finally, we propose a quantitative validation approach for sensitivity analysis based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics.

  1. Climate stability and sensitivity in some simple conceptual models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bates, J. Ray [University College Dublin, Meteorology and Climate Centre, School of Mathematical Sciences, Dublin (Ireland)

    2012-02-15

    A theoretical investigation of climate stability and sensitivity is carried out using three simple linearized models based on the top-of-the-atmosphere energy budget. The simplest is the zero-dimensional model (ZDM) commonly used as a conceptual basis for climate sensitivity and feedback studies. The others are two-zone models with tropics and extratropics of equal area; in the first of these (Model A), the dynamical heat transport (DHT) between the zones is implicit, in the second (Model B) it is explicitly parameterized. It is found that the stability and sensitivity properties of the ZDM and Model A are very similar, both depending only on the global-mean radiative response coefficient and the global-mean forcing. The corresponding properties of Model B are more complex, depending asymmetrically on the separate tropical and extratropical values of these quantities, as well as on the DHT coefficient. Adopting Model B as a benchmark, conditions are found under which the validity of the ZDM and Model A as climate sensitivity models holds. It is shown that parameter ranges of physical interest exist for which such validity may not hold. The 2 x CO{sub 2} sensitivities of the simple models are studied and compared. Possible implications of the results for sensitivities derived from GCMs and palaeoclimate data are suggested. Sensitivities for more general scenarios that include negative forcing in the tropics (due to aerosols, inadvertent or geoengineered) are also studied. Some unexpected outcomes are found in this case. These include the possibility of a negative global-mean temperature response to a positive global-mean forcing, and vice versa. (orig.)

  2. The Dutch Central Sensitization Inventory (CSI): Factor Analysis, Discriminative Power, and Test-Retest Reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kregel, Jeroen; Vuijk, Pieter J; Descheemaeker, Filip; Keizer, Doeke; van der Noord, Robert; Nijs, Jo; Cagnie, Barbara; Meeus, Mira; van Wilgen, Paul

    2016-07-01

    A standardized assessment of central sensitization can be performed with the Central Sensitization Inventory (CSI), an English questionnaire consisting of 25 items relating to current health symptoms. The aim of this study was to translate the CSI into Dutch, to perform a factor analysis to reveal the underlying structure, examine its discriminative power, and test-retest reliability. The CSI was first translated into Dutch. A factor analysis was conducted on CSI data of a large group of chronic pain patients (n=368). The ability to discriminate between chronic pain patients (n=188) and pain-free controls (n=49) was determined and the test-retest reliability for chronic pain patients (n=36) and controls (n=45) with a time interval of 3 weeks was evaluated. The exploratory factor analysis resulted in a 4-factor model based on 20 items, representing the domains "General disability and physical symptoms" (Cronbach α=0.80), "Higher central sensitivity"(Cronbach α=0.78), "Urological and dermatological symptoms"(Cronbach α=0.60), and "Emotional distress"(Cronbach α=0.80). Furthermore, a parsimonious second-order factor model was found, where the factor "General central sensitization" was underlying the 4 first-order factors. Chronic pain patients scored significantly worse on all 4 factors. The test-retest reliability was excellent values in both chronic pain patients (ICC=0.88) and controls (ICC=0.91). The original CSI was translated into Dutch and did not reveal any problems during data acquisition. The domains represented by the 4 factors may be useful in setting up specific patient profiles and treatment targets. To conclude, the Dutch CSI revealed 4 distinguishable domains, showed good internal consistency for the total score and 3 out of 4 domains, good discriminative power, and excellent test-retest reliability.

  3. Multiplexed and Sensitive DNA Methylation Testing Using Methylation-Sensitive Restriction Enzymes "MSRE-qPCR".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beikircher, Gabriel; Pulverer, Walter; Hofner, Manuela; Noehammer, Christa; Weinhaeusel, Andreas

    2018-01-01

    DNA methylation is a chemically stable key-player in epigenetics. In the vertebrate genome the 5-methyl cytosine (5mC) has been found almost exclusively in the CpG dinucleotide context. CpG dinucleotides are enriched in CpG islands very frequently located within or close to gene promoters. Analyses of DNA methylation changes in human diagnostics have been conducted classically using methylation-sensitive restriction enzymes (MSRE). Since the discovery of bisulfite conversion-based sequencing and PCR assays, MSRE-based PCR assays have been less frequently used, although especially in the field of cancer epigenetics MSRE-based genome-wide discovery and targeted screening applications have been and are still performed successfully. Even though epigenome-wide discovery of altered DNA methylation patterns has found its way into various fields of human disease and molecular genetics research, the validation of findings upon discovery is still a bottleneck. Usually several multiples of 10 up to 100 candidate biomarkers from discovery have to be confirmed or are of interest for further work. In particular, bisulfite PCR assays are often limited in the number of candidates which can be analyzed, due to their low multiplexing capability, especially, if only small amounts of DNA are available from for example clinical specimens. In clinical research and diagnostics a similar situation arises for the analyses of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) in body fluids or circulating tumor cells (CTCs). Although tissue- or disease- (e.g., cancer) specific DNA methylation patterns can be deduced very efficiently in a genome-wide manner if around 100 ng of DNA are available, confirming these candidates and selecting target-sequences for studying methylation changes in liquid biopsies using cfDNA or CTCs remains a big challenge. Along these lines we have developed MSRE-qPCR and introduce here method details, which have been found very suitable for the efficient confirmation and testing of DNA

  4. Sensitivity study of reduced models of the activated sludge process ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2009-08-07

    Aug 7, 2009 ... order to fit the reduced model behaviour to the real data for the process behaviour. Keywords: wastewater treatment, activated sludge process, reduced model, model parameters, sensitivity function, Matlab simulation. Introduction. The problem of effective and optimal control of wastewater treatment plants ...

  5. EPA Releases Draft Policy to Reduce Animal Testing for Skin Sensitization

    Science.gov (United States)

    The document, Draft Interim Science Policy: Use of Alternative Approaches for Skin Sensitization as a Replacement for Laboratory Animal Testing, describes the science behind the non-animal alternatives that can now be used to identify skin sensitization.

  6. Investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final repository performance assessment models (MOSEL)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spiessl, Sabine; Becker, Dirk-Alexander

    2017-06-01

    Sensitivity analysis is a mathematical means for analysing the sensitivities of a computational model to variations of its input parameters. Thus, it is a tool for managing parameter uncertainties. It is often performed probabilistically as global sensitivity analysis, running the model a large number of times with different parameter value combinations. Going along with the increase of computer capabilities, global sensitivity analysis has been a field of mathematical research for some decades. In the field of final repository modelling, probabilistic analysis is regarded a key element of a modern safety case. An appropriate uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can help identify parameters that need further dedicated research to reduce the overall uncertainty, generally leads to better system understanding and can thus contribute to building confidence in the models. The purpose of the project described here was to systematically investigate different numerical and graphical techniques of sensitivity analysis with typical repository models, which produce a distinctly right-skewed and tailed output distribution and can exhibit a highly nonlinear, non-monotonic or even non-continuous behaviour. For the investigations presented here, three test models were defined that describe generic, but typical repository systems. A number of numerical and graphical sensitivity analysis methods were selected for investigation and, in part, modified or adapted. Different sampling methods were applied to produce various parameter samples of different sizes and many individual runs with the test models were performed. The results were evaluated with the different methods of sensitivity analysis. On this basis the methods were compared and assessed. This report gives an overview of the background and the applied methods. The results obtained for three typical test models are presented and explained; conclusions in view of practical applications are drawn. At the end, a recommendation

  7. Investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final repository performance assessment models (MOSEL)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spiessl, Sabine; Becker, Dirk-Alexander

    2017-06-15

    Sensitivity analysis is a mathematical means for analysing the sensitivities of a computational model to variations of its input parameters. Thus, it is a tool for managing parameter uncertainties. It is often performed probabilistically as global sensitivity analysis, running the model a large number of times with different parameter value combinations. Going along with the increase of computer capabilities, global sensitivity analysis has been a field of mathematical research for some decades. In the field of final repository modelling, probabilistic analysis is regarded a key element of a modern safety case. An appropriate uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can help identify parameters that need further dedicated research to reduce the overall uncertainty, generally leads to better system understanding and can thus contribute to building confidence in the models. The purpose of the project described here was to systematically investigate different numerical and graphical techniques of sensitivity analysis with typical repository models, which produce a distinctly right-skewed and tailed output distribution and can exhibit a highly nonlinear, non-monotonic or even non-continuous behaviour. For the investigations presented here, three test models were defined that describe generic, but typical repository systems. A number of numerical and graphical sensitivity analysis methods were selected for investigation and, in part, modified or adapted. Different sampling methods were applied to produce various parameter samples of different sizes and many individual runs with the test models were performed. The results were evaluated with the different methods of sensitivity analysis. On this basis the methods were compared and assessed. This report gives an overview of the background and the applied methods. The results obtained for three typical test models are presented and explained; conclusions in view of practical applications are drawn. At the end, a recommendation

  8. Testing auditory sensitivity in the great cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maxwell, Alyssa; Hansen, Kirstin Anderson; Larsen, Ole Næsbye

    2016-01-01

    Psychoacoustic and electrophysiological methods were used to measure the in-air hearing sensitivity of the great cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis). One individual was used to determine the behavioral thresholds, which was then compared to previously collected data on the auditory brainstem...

  9. Sensitivity and specificity of copper sulphate test in determining ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: The accuracy of the copper sulphate method for the rapid screening of prospective blood donors has been questioned because this rapid screening method may lead to false deferral of truly eligible prospective blood donors. Objective: This study was aimed at determining the sensitivity and specificity of copper ...

  10. In vitro toxicity testing of supramolecular sensitizers for photodynamic therapy

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kolářová, H.; Mosinger, J.; Lenobel, René; Kejlová, K.; Jírová, D.; Strnad, Miroslav

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 17, 5/6 (2003), s. 775-778 ISSN 0887-2333 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA203/02/1483 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z5038910; CEZ:MSM 153100008 Keywords : Sensitizers * Phototoxicity * Photodynamic therapy Subject RIV: EB - Genetics ; Molecular Biology Impact factor: 1.642, year: 2003

  11. BIOMOVS test scenario model comparison using BIOPATH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grogan, H.A.; Van Dorp, F.

    1986-07-01

    This report presents the results of the irrigation test scenario, presented in the BIOMOVS intercomparison study, calculated by the computer code BIOPATH. This scenario defines a constant release of Tc-99 and Np-237 into groundwater that is used for irrigation. The system of compartments used to model the biosphere is based upon an area in northern Switzerland and is essentially the same as that used in Projekt Gewaehr to assess the radiological impact of a high level waste repository. Two separate irrigation methods are considered, namely ditch and overhead irrigation. Their influence on the resultant activities calculated in the groundwater, soil and different foodproducts, as a function of time, is evaluated. The sensitivity of the model to parameter variations is analysed which allows a deeper understanding of the model chain. These results are assessed subjectively in a first effort to realistically quantify the uncertainty associated with each calculated activity. (author)

  12. The detection of sensitivity of proprioception by a new clinical test: the dual joint position test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckmann, Yesim Yetimalar; Çiftçi, Yeliz; Ertekin, Cumhur

    2013-07-01

    To date, very few studies have paid attention to the joint sense (proprioception) of toes other than the big toe. We evaluated the sensitivity of joint position sense at the joint of the great toe in comparison to other digits, and with that determined by the dual digit stimulation test, in a sample of healthy normal controls and patients with clinical diagnosis of the lemniscal system dysfunction. Seventy-two patients with lemniscal system dysfunction (55 clinically definitive multiple sclerosis, 17 vasculitis) and 110 healthy volunteers participated in the study. All subjects underwent the joint position sense test of all digits of upper and lower extremities. The position sense resulting from the combined operation of the joints of the second and the fourth digits (simultaneous two digits position sense) was also measured and subsequently compared with the results of the great toe position sense. Upper extremities: no difference was found in recognition of the position sense in the single digits of the upper extremities between patients and healthy volunteers. There was a significant difference in the dual joint position test of the right upper extremity between patients and the case group (pproprioception of the great toe neither in the right and nor in the left side between patients and normal subjects. However, the joint position sense of other single digits was deteriorated in the patients, a difference that was significant compared to normal controls (pproprioception of simultaneous dual digits is diminished in patients when compared to a single digit position sense. Moreover, the great toe proprioception is less sensitive than other digits. Taken together, these observations lend evidence for a new clinical method which we named as dual joint position test. We suggest this novel method offers clinical utility to demonstrate lemniscal system dysfunction. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Sensitivity, Specificity, and Positivity Predictors of the Pneumococcal Urinary Antigen Test in Community-Acquired Pneumonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molinos, Luis; Zalacain, Rafael; Menéndez, Rosario; Reyes, Soledad; Capelastegui, Alberto; Cillóniz, Catia; Rajas, Olga; Borderías, Luis; Martín-Villasclaras, Juan J; Bello, Salvador; Alfageme, Inmaculada; Rodríguez de Castro, Felipe; Rello, Jordi; Ruiz-Manzano, Juan; Gabarrús, Albert; Musher, Daniel M; Torres, Antoni

    2015-10-01

    Detection of the C-polysaccharide of Streptococcus pneumoniae in urine by an immune-chromatographic test is increasingly used to evaluate patients with community-acquired pneumonia. We assessed the sensitivity and specificity of this test in the largest series of cases to date and used logistic regression models to determine predictors of positivity in patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia. We performed a multicenter, prospective, observational study of 4,374 patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia. The urinary antigen test was done in 3,874 cases. Pneumococcal infection was diagnosed in 916 cases (21%); 653 (71%) of these cases were diagnosed exclusively by the urinary antigen test. Sensitivity and specificity were 60 and 99.7%, respectively. Predictors of urinary antigen positivity were female sex; heart rate≥125 bpm, systolic blood pressureantibiotic treatment; pleuritic chest pain; chills; pleural effusion; and blood urea nitrogen≥30 mg/dl. With at least six of all these predictors present, the probability of positivity was 52%. With only one factor present, the probability was only 12%. The urinary antigen test is a method with good sensitivity and excellent specificity in diagnosing pneumococcal pneumonia, and its use greatly increased the recognition of community-acquired pneumonia due to S. pneumoniae. With a specificity of 99.7%, this test could be used to direct simplified antibiotic therapy, thereby avoiding excess costs and risk for bacterial resistance that result from broad-spectrum antibiotics. We also identified predictors of positivity that could increase suspicion for pneumococcal infection or avoid the unnecessary use of this test.

  14. Model dependence of isospin sensitive observables at high densities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Wen-Mei; Yong, Gao-Chan; Wang, Yongjia; Li, Qingfeng; Zhang, Hongfei; Zuo, Wei

    2013-01-01

    Within two different frameworks of isospin-dependent transport model, i.e., Boltzmann–Uehling–Uhlenbeck (IBUU04) and Ultrarelativistic Quantum Molecular Dynamics (UrQMD) transport models, sensitive probes of nuclear symmetry energy are simulated and compared. It is shown that neutron to proton ratio of free nucleons, π − /π + ratio as well as isospin-sensitive transverse and elliptic flows given by the two transport models with their “best settings”, all have obvious differences. Discrepancy of numerical value of isospin-sensitive n/p ratio of free nucleon from the two models mainly originates from different symmetry potentials used and discrepancies of numerical value of charged π − /π + ratio and isospin-sensitive flows mainly originate from different isospin-dependent nucleon–nucleon cross sections. These demonstrations call for more detailed studies on the model inputs (i.e., the density- and momentum-dependent symmetry potential and the isospin-dependent nucleon–nucleon cross section in medium) of isospin-dependent transport model used. The studies of model dependence of isospin sensitive observables can help nuclear physicists to pin down the density dependence of nuclear symmetry energy through comparison between experiments and theoretical simulations scientifically

  15. Sensitivity and specificity of the nickel spot (dimethylglyoxime) test

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyssen, Jacob P; Skare, Lizbet; Lundgren, Lennart

    2010-01-01

    The accuracy of the dimethylglyoxime (DMG) nickel spot test has been questioned because of false negative and positive test reactions. The EN 1811, a European standard reference method developed by the European Committee for Standardization (CEN), is fine-tuned to estimate nickel release around...... the limit value of the EU Nickel Directive from products intended to come into direct and prolonged skin contact. Because assessments according to EN 1811 are expensive to perform, time consuming, and may destruct the test item, it should be of great value to know the accuracy of the DMG screening test....

  16. Sensitivity Analysis of the Integrated Medical Model for ISS Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodenow, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Arellano, J.; Boley, L.; Garcia, Y.; Saile, L.; Walton, M.; Kerstman, E.; Reyes, D.; Young, M.

    2016-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis estimates the relative contribution of the uncertainty in input values to the uncertainty of model outputs. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and Standardized Rank Regression Coefficient (SRRC) are methods of conducting sensitivity analysis on nonlinear simulation models like the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity using partial correlation of the ranks of the generated input values to each generated output value. The partial part is so named because adjustments are made for the linear effects of all the other input values in the calculation of correlation between a particular input and each output. In SRRC, standardized regression-based coefficients measure the sensitivity of each input, adjusted for all the other inputs, on each output. Because the relative ranking of each of the inputs and outputs is used, as opposed to the values themselves, both methods accommodate the nonlinear relationship of the underlying model. As part of the IMM v4.0 validation study, simulations are available that predict 33 person-missions on ISS and 111 person-missions on STS. These simulated data predictions feed the sensitivity analysis procedures. The inputs to the sensitivity procedures include the number occurrences of each of the one hundred IMM medical conditions generated over the simulations and the associated IMM outputs: total quality time lost (QTL), number of evacuations (EVAC), and number of loss of crew lives (LOCL). The IMM team will report the results of using PRCC and SRRC on IMM v4.0 predictions of the ISS and STS missions created as part of the external validation study. Tornado plots will assist in the visualization of the condition-related input sensitivities to each of the main outcomes. The outcomes of this sensitivity analysis will drive review focus by identifying conditions where changes in uncertainty could drive changes in overall model output uncertainty. These efforts are an integral

  17. 115 THE SENSITIVITY OF DIAZO TEST IN THE DIAGNOSIS OF ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Salmonella typhi was the predominant serotype causing typhoid/paratyphoid fevers, followed by S. paratypi A; S. paratyphi C and S. paratyphi B respectively. Although. Diazo test does not appear to be reliable, it could still be useful alongside with Widal agglutination test in endemic rural or urban areas where electricity and ...

  18. Sensitivity and specificity of neuropsychological tests for dementia ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background. Neuropsychological tests can successfully distinguish between healthy elderly persons and those with clinically significant cognitive impairment. Objectives. A battery of neuropsychological tests was evaluated for their discrimination validity of cognitive impairment in a group of elderly persons in Durban, South ...

  19. Sensitivity-based research prioritization through stochastic characterization modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wender, Ben A.; Prado-Lopez, Valentina; Fantke, Peter

    2018-01-01

    to guide research efforts in data refinement and design of experiments for existing and emerging chemicals alike. This study presents a sensitivity-based approach for estimating toxicity characterization factors given high input data uncertainty and using the results to prioritize data collection according......Product developers using life cycle toxicity characterization models to understand the potential impacts of chemical emissions face serious challenges related to large data demands and high input data uncertainty. This motivates greater focus on model sensitivity toward input parameter variability...... to parameter influence on characterization factors (CFs). Proof of concept is illustrated with the UNEP-SETAC scientific consensus model USEtox....

  20. Consistency test of the standard model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pawlowski, M.; Raczka, R.

    1997-01-01

    If the 'Higgs mass' is not the physical mass of a real particle but rather an effective ultraviolet cutoff then a process energy dependence of this cutoff must be admitted. Precision data from at least two energy scale experimental points are necessary to test this hypothesis. The first set of precision data is provided by the Z-boson peak experiments. We argue that the second set can be given by 10-20 GeV e + e - colliders. We pay attention to the special role of tau polarization experiments that can be sensitive to the 'Higgs mass' for a sample of ∼ 10 8 produced tau pairs. We argue that such a study may be regarded as a negative selfconsistency test of the Standard Model and of most of its extensions

  1. Sensitivity analysis technique for application to deterministic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishigami, T.; Cazzoli, E.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Unwin, S.D.

    1987-01-01

    The characterization of sever accident source terms for light water reactors should include consideration of uncertainties. An important element of any uncertainty analysis is an evaluation of the sensitivity of the output probability distributions reflecting source term uncertainties to assumptions regarding the input probability distributions. Historically, response surface methods (RSMs) were developed to replace physical models using, for example, regression techniques, with simplified models for example, regression techniques, with simplified models for extensive calculations. The purpose of this paper is to present a new method for sensitivity analysis that does not utilize RSM, but instead relies directly on the results obtained from the original computer code calculations. The merits of this approach are demonstrated by application of the proposed method to the suppression pool aerosol removal code (SPARC), and the results are compared with those obtained by sensitivity analysis with (a) the code itself, (b) a regression model, and (c) Iman's method

  2. Modelling flow through unsaturated zones: Sensitivity to unsaturated ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A numerical model to simulate moisture flow through unsaturated zones is developed using the finite element method, and is validated by comparing the model results with those available in the literature. The sensitivities of different processes such as gravity drainage and infiltration to the variations in the unsaturated soil ...

  3. Experimental Design for Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2001-01-01

    This introductory tutorial gives a survey on the use of statistical designs for what if-or sensitivity analysis in simulation.This analysis uses regression analysis to approximate the input/output transformation that is implied by the simulation model; the resulting regression model is also known as

  4. Modelling flow through unsaturated zones: Sensitivity to unsaturated ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    M. Senthilkumar (Newgen Imaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    MS received 13 October 1997; revised 20 November 2001. Abstract. A numerical model to simulate moisture flow through unsaturated zones is developed using the finite element method, and is validated by comparing the model results with those available in the literature. The sensitivities of different processes such as ...

  5. Quantifying uncertainty and sensitivity in sea ice models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Hunke, Elizabeth Clare [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Urban, Nathan Mark [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-07-15

    The Los Alamos Sea Ice model has a number of input parameters for which accurate values are not always well established. We conduct a variance-based sensitivity analysis of hemispheric sea ice properties to 39 input parameters. The method accounts for non-linear and non-additive effects in the model.

  6. Sensitive analysis of a finite element model of orthogonal cutting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brocail, J.; Watremez, M.; Dubar, L.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a two-dimensional finite element model of orthogonal cutting. The proposed model has been developed with Abaqus/explicit software. An Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) formulation is used to predict chip formation, temperature, chip-tool contact length, chip thickness, and cutting forces. This numerical model of orthogonal cutting will be validated by comparing these process variables to experimental and numerical results obtained by Filice et al. [1]. This model can be considered to be reliable enough to make qualitative analysis of entry parameters related to cutting process and frictional models. A sensitivity analysis is conducted on the main entry parameters (coefficients of the Johnson-Cook law, and contact parameters) with the finite element model. This analysis is performed with two levels for each factor. The sensitivity analysis realised with the numerical model on the entry parameters has allowed the identification of significant parameters and the margin identification of parameters.

  7. Analytic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of models with input correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yueying; Wang, Qiuping A.; Li, Wei; Cai, Xu

    2018-03-01

    Probabilistic uncertainty analysis is a common means of evaluating mathematical models. In mathematical modeling, the uncertainty in input variables is specified through distribution laws. Its contribution to the uncertainty in model response is usually analyzed by assuming that input variables are independent of each other. However, correlated parameters are often happened in practical applications. In the present paper, an analytic method is built for the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of models in the presence of input correlations. With the method, it is straightforward to identify the importance of the independence and correlations of input variables in determining the model response. This allows one to decide whether or not the input correlations should be considered in practice. Numerical examples suggest the effectiveness and validation of our analytic method in the analysis of general models. A practical application of the method is also proposed to the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a deterministic HIV model.

  8. Long-term repeatability of the skin prick test is high when supported by history or allergen-sensitivity tests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødtger, Uffe; Jacobsen, C R; Poulsen, L K

    2003-01-01

    subjects. An SPT was positive when > or =3 mm, and repeatable if either persistently positive or negative. Clinical sensitivity to birch pollen was used as model for inhalation allergy, and was investigated at inclusion and at study termination by challenge tests, intradermal test, titrated SPT and Ig......E measurements. Birch pollen symptoms were confirmed in diaries. RESULTS: The repeatability of a positive SPT was 67%, increasing significantly to 100% when supported by the history. When not supported by history, the presence of specific IgE was significantly associated with a repeatable SPT. Allergen....... CONCLUSION: SPT changes are clinically relevant. Further studies using other allergens are needed. Long-term repeatability of SPT is high in the presence of a supportive history....

  9. Test model of WWER core

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tikhomirov, A. V.; Gorokhov, A. K.

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this paper is creation of precision test model for WWER RP neutron-physics calculations. The model is considered as a tool for verification of deterministic computer codes that enables to reduce conservatism of design calculations and enhance WWER RP competitiveness. Precision calculations were performed using code MCNP5/1/ (Monte Carlo method). Engineering computer package Sapfir 9 5andRC V VER/2/ is used in comparative analysis of the results, it was certified for design calculations of WWER RU neutron-physics characteristic. The object of simulation is the first fuel loading of Volgodon NPP RP. Peculiarities of transition in calculation using MCNP5 from 2D geometry to 3D geometry are shown on the full-scale model. All core components as well as radial and face reflectors, automatic regulation in control and protection system control rod are represented in detail description according to the design. The first stage of application of the model is assessment of accuracy of calculation of the core power. At the second stage control and protection system control rod worth was assessed. Full scale RP representation in calculation using code MCNP5 is time consuming that calls for parallelization of computational problem on multiprocessing computer (Authors)

  10. Method matters: systematic effects of testing procedure on visual working memory sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makovski, Tal; Watson, Leah M; Koutstaal, Wilma; Jiang, Yuhong V

    2010-11-01

    Visual working memory (WM) is traditionally considered a robust form of visual representation that survives changes in object motion, observer's position, and other visual transients. This article presents data that are inconsistent with the traditional view. We show that memory sensitivity is dramatically influenced by small variations in the testing procedure, supporting the idea that representations in visual WM are susceptible to interference from testing. In the study, participants were shown an array of colors to remember. After a short retention interval, memory for one of the items was tested with either a same-different task or a 2-alternative-forced-choice (2AFC) task. Memory sensitivity was much lower in the 2AFC task than in the same-different task. This difference was found regardless of encoding similarity or of whether visual WM required a fine or coarse memory resolution. The 2AFC disadvantage was reduced when participants were informed shortly before testing which item would be probed. The 2AFC disadvantage diminished in perceptual tasks and was not found in tasks probing visual long-term memory. These results support memory models that acknowledge the labile nature of visual WM and have implications for the format of visual WM and its assessment. (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved

  11. Sensitivity analysis in a Lassa fever deterministic mathematical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullahi, Mohammed Baba; Doko, Umar Chado; Mamuda, Mamman

    2015-05-01

    Lassa virus that causes the Lassa fever is on the list of potential bio-weapons agents. It was recently imported into Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States as a consequence of the rapid growth of international traffic. A model with five mutually exclusive compartments related to Lassa fever is presented and the basic reproduction number analyzed. A sensitivity analysis of the deterministic model is performed. This is done in order to determine the relative importance of the model parameters to the disease transmission. The result of the sensitivity analysis shows that the most sensitive parameter is the human immigration, followed by human recovery rate, then person to person contact. This suggests that control strategies should target human immigration, effective drugs for treatment and education to reduced person to person contact.

  12. Investigation of sensitivity of Preisach analysis for nondestructive testing

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Melikhov, Yevgeniy; Tomáš, Ivan; Perevertov, Oleksiy; Kadlecová, Jana; Jiles, D. C.; Lo, Ch. C. H.

    2001-01-01

    Roč. 37, č. 6 (2001), s. 3907-3912 ISSN 0018-9464 R&D Project s: GA ČR GA101/99/1662; GA MŠk ME 140 Grant - others:XX(XC) Joint project KONTAKT; -(XX) CMS-9532056; -(XX) INT-9732135 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1010914 Keywords : Jiles-Altherton model * nondestructive evaluation * Preisach model Subject RIV: BM - Solid Matter Physics ; Magnetism Impact factor: 0.891, year: 2001

  13. Highly sensitive multianalyte immunochromatographic test strip for rapid chemiluminescent detection of ractopamine and salbutamol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gao, Hongfei; Han, Jing; Yang, Shijia; Wang, Zhenxing; Wang, Lin; Fu, Zhifeng, E-mail: fuzf@swu.edu.cn

    2014-08-11

    Graphical abstract: A multianalyte immunochromatographic test strip was developed for the rapid detection of two β{sub 2}-agonists. Due to the application of chemiluminescent detection, this quantitative method shows much higher sensitivity. - Highlights: • An immunochromatographic test strip was developed for detection of multiple β{sub 2}-agonists. • The whole assay process can be completed within 20 min. • The proposed method shows much higher sensitivity due to the application of CL detection. • It is a portable analytical tool suitable for field analysis and rapid screening. - Abstract: A novel immunochromatographic assay (ICA) was proposed for rapid and multiple assay of β{sub 2}-agonists, by utilizing ractopamine (RAC) and salbutamol (SAL) as the models. Owing to the introduction of chemiluminescent (CL) approach, the proposed protocol shows much higher sensitivity. In this work, the described ICA was based on a competitive format, and horseradish peroxidase-tagged antibodies were used as highly sensitive CL probes. Quantitative analysis of β{sub 2}-agonists was achieved by recording the CL signals of the probes captured on the two test zones of the nitrocellulose membrane. Under the optimum conditions, RAC and SAL could be detected within the linear ranges of 0.50–40 and 0.10–50 ng mL{sup −1}, with the detection limits of 0.20 and 0.040 ng mL{sup −1} (S/N = 3), respectively. The whole process for multianalyte immunoassay of RAC and SAL can be completed within 20 min. Furthermore, the test strip was validated with spiked swine urine samples and the results showed that this method was reliable in measuring β{sub 2}-agonists in swine urine. This CL-based multianalyte test strip shows a series of advantages such as high sensitivity, ideal selectivity, simple manipulation, high assay efficiency and low cost. Thus, it opens up new pathway for rapid screening and field analysis, and shows a promising prospect in food safety.

  14. Sensitivity and specificity of neuropsychological tests for dementia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    governmental organisation and cater for those needing frail care, assisted living and independent living. ... Neuropsychological tests can successfully distinguish between healthy elderly persons and those with clinically significant cognitive impairment. ... and 20 either refused or were unavailable to participate. One person ...

  15. Sensitivity analysis of alkaline plume modelling: influence of mineralogy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaboreau, S.; Claret, F.; Marty, N.; Burnol, A.; Tournassat, C.; Gaucher, E.C.; Munier, I.; Michau, N.; Cochepin, B.

    2010-01-01

    Document available in extended abstract form only. In the context of a disposal facility for radioactive waste in clayey geological formation, an important modelling effort has been carried out in order to predict the time evolution of interacting cement based (concrete or cement) and clay (argillites and bentonite) materials. The high number of modelling input parameters associated with non negligible uncertainties makes often difficult the interpretation of modelling results. As a consequence, it is necessary to carry out sensitivity analysis on main modelling parameters. In a recent study, Marty et al. (2009) could demonstrate that numerical mesh refinement and consideration of dissolution/precipitation kinetics have a marked effect on (i) the time necessary to numerically clog the initial porosity and (ii) on the final mineral assemblage at the interface. On the contrary, these input parameters have little effect on the extension of the alkaline pH plume. In the present study, we propose to investigate the effects of the considered initial mineralogy on the principal simulation outputs: (1) the extension of the high pH plume, (2) the time to clog the porosity and (3) the alteration front in the clay barrier (extension and nature of mineralogy changes). This was done through sensitivity analysis on both concrete composition and clay mineralogical assemblies since in most published studies, authors considered either only one composition per materials or simplified mineralogy in order to facilitate or to reduce their calculation times. 1D Cartesian reactive transport models were run in order to point out the importance of (1) the crystallinity of concrete phases, (2) the type of clayey materials and (3) the choice of secondary phases that are allowed to precipitate during calculations. Two concrete materials with either nanocrystalline or crystalline phases were simulated in contact with two clayey materials (smectite MX80 or Callovo- Oxfordian argillites). Both

  16. A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

    KAUST Repository

    Boas, Sonja E. M.

    2015-11-21

    Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  17. A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boas, Sonja E M; Navarro Jimenez, Maria I; Merks, Roeland M H; Blom, Joke G

    2015-11-21

    Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such 'black-box' models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all 'black-box' models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  18. Mathematical modeling of a fluidized bed rice husk gasifier: Part 2 - Model sensitivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mansaray, K.G.; Ghaly, A.E.; Al-Taweel, A.M.; Hamdullahpur, F.; Ugursal, V.I.

    2000-02-01

    The performance of two thermodynamic models (one-compartment and two-compartment models), developed for fluidized bed gasification of rice husk, was analyzed and compared in terms of their predictive capabilities of the product gas composition. The two-compartment model was the most adequate to simulate the fluidized bed gasification of rice husk, since the complex hydrodynamics present in the fluidized bed gasifier were taken into account. Therefore, the two-compartment model was tested under a wide range of parameters, including bed height, fluidization velocity, equivalence ratio, oxygen concentration in the fluidizing gas, and rice husk moisture content. The model sensitivity analysis showed that changes in bed height had a significant effect on the reactor temperatures, but only a small effect on the gas composition, higher heating value, and overall carbon conversion. The fluidization velocity, equivalence ratio, oxygen concentration in the fluidizing gas, and moisture content in rice husk had dramatic effects on the gasifier performance. However, the model was more sensitive to variations in the equivalence ratio and oxygen concentration in the fluidizing gas. (Author)

  19. Mathematical modeling of a fluidized bed rice husk gasifier: Part 2 -- Model sensitivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mansaray, K.G.; Ghaly, A.E.; Al-Taweel, A.M.; Hamdullahpur, F.; Ugursal, V.I.

    2000-03-01

    The performance of two thermodynamic models (one-compartment and two-compartment models), developed for fluidized bed gasification of rice husk, was analyzed and compared in terms of their predictive capabilities of the product gas composition. The two-compartment model was the most adequate to simulate the fluidized bed gasification of rice husk, since the complex hydrodynamics present in the fluidized bed gasifier were taken into account. Therefore, the two-compartment model was tested under a wide range of parameters, including bed height, fluidization velocity, equivalence ratio, oxygen concentration in the fluidizing gas, and rice husk moisture content. The model sensitivity analysis showed that changes in bed height had a significant effect on the reactor temperatures, but only a small effect on the gas composition, higher heating value, and overall carbon conversion. The fluidization velocity, equivalence ratio, oxygen concentration in the fluidizing gas, and moisture content in rice husk had dramatic effects on the gasifier performance. However, the model was more sensitive to variations in the equivalence ratio and oxygen concentration in the fluidizing gas.

  20. On the reliability of sensitivity test methods for submicrometer-sized RDX and HMX particles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Radacsi, N.; Bouma, R.H.B.; Krabbendam-La Haye, E.L.M.; Horst, J.H. ter; Stankiewicz, A.I.; Heijden, A.E.D.M. van der

    2013-01-01

    Submicrometer-sized RDX and HMX crystals were produced by electrospray crystallization and submicrometer-sized RDX crystals were produced by plasma-assisted crystallization. Impact and friction sensitivity tests and ballistic impact chamber tests were performed to determine the product sensitivity.

  1. Design and Validation of a Straight-Copy Typewriting Prognostic Test Using Kinesthetic Sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Norma Jean

    1979-01-01

    Describes the development and application of a kinesthetic sensitivity test to determine whether it is a valid and reliable measure of straight-copy typing speed and accuracy. The author states that this kinesthetic sensitivity instrument may be used as a prognostic aptitude test and recommends administration methods. (MF)

  2. Model test of boson mappings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Navratil, P.; Dobes, J.

    1992-01-01

    Methods of boson mapping are tested in calculations for a simple model system of four protons and four neutrons in single-j distinguishable orbits. Two-body terms in the boson images of the fermion operators are considered. Effects of the seniority v=4 states are thus included. The treatment of unphysical states and the influence of boson space truncation are particularly studied. Both the Dyson boson mapping and the seniority boson mapping as dictated by the similarity transformed Dyson mapping do not seem to be simply amenable to truncation. This situation improves when the one-body form of the seniority image of the quadrupole operator is employed. Truncation of the boson space is addressed by using the effective operator theory with a notable improvement of results

  3. A model for perception-based identification of sensitive skin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richters, R J H; Uzunbajakava, N E; Hendriks, J C M; Bikker, J-W; van Erp, P E J; van de Kerkhof, P C M

    2017-02-01

    With high prevalence of sensitive skin (SS), lack of strong evidence on pathomechanisms, consensus on associated symptoms, proof of existence of 'general' SS and tools to recruit subjects, this topic attracts increasing attention of research. To create a model for selecting subjects in studies on SS by identifying a complete set of self-reported SS characteristics and factors discriminatively describing it. A survey (n = 3058) was conducted, comprising questions regarding socio-demographics, atopy, skin characteristics, personal care, degree of self-assessed SS and subjective and objective reactions to endogenous and exogenous factors. Exploratory factor analysis on 481 questionnaires was performed to identify underlying dimensions and multivariate logistic regression to find contributing variables to the likelihood of reporting SS. The prevalence of SS was found to be 41%, and 56% of SS subjects reports a concomitant atopic condition. The most discriminative were the eliciting factors toiletries and emotions, and not specific skin symptoms in general. Triggers of different origins seem to elicit SS, it is not defined by concomitant skin diseases only, suggesting existence of 'general' SS. A multifactorial questionnaire could be a better diagnostic than a one-dimensional provocative test. © 2016 European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology.

  4. Sensitivity of wildlife habitat models to uncertainties in GIS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoms, David M.; Davis, Frank W.; Cogan, Christopher B.

    1992-01-01

    Decision makers need to know the reliability of output products from GIS analysis. For many GIS applications, it is not possible to compare these products to an independent measure of 'truth'. Sensitivity analysis offers an alternative means of estimating reliability. In this paper, we present a CIS-based statistical procedure for estimating the sensitivity of wildlife habitat models to uncertainties in input data and model assumptions. The approach is demonstrated in an analysis of habitat associations derived from a GIS database for the endangered California condor. Alternative data sets were generated to compare results over a reasonable range of assumptions about several sources of uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis indicated that condor habitat associations are relatively robust, and the results have increased our confidence in our initial findings. Uncertainties and methods described in the paper have general relevance for many GIS applications.

  5. Automated sensitivity analysis: New tools for modeling complex dynamic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pin, F.G.

    1987-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis is an established methodology used by researchers in almost every field to gain essential insight in design and modeling studies and in performance assessments of complex systems. Conventional sensitivity analysis methodologies, however, have not enjoyed the widespread use they deserve considering the wealth of information they can provide, partly because of their prohibitive cost or the large initial analytical investment they require. Automated systems have recently been developed at ORNL to eliminate these drawbacks. Compilers such as GRESS and EXAP now allow automatic and cost effective calculation of sensitivities in FORTRAN computer codes. In this paper, these and other related tools are described and their impact and applicability in the general areas of modeling, performance assessment and decision making for radioactive waste isolation problems are discussed

  6. Is Convection Sensitive to Model Vertical Resolution and Why?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, S.; Lin, W.; Zhang, G. J.

    2017-12-01

    Model sensitivity to horizontal resolutions has been studied extensively, whereas model sensitivity to vertical resolution is much less explored. In this study, we use the US Department of Energy (DOE)'s Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) atmosphere model to examine the sensitivity of clouds and precipitation to the increase of vertical resolution of the model. We attempt to understand what results in the behavior change (if any) of convective processes represented by the unified shallow and turbulent scheme named CLUBB (Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals) and the Zhang-McFarlane deep convection scheme in ACME. A short-term hindcast approach is used to isolate parameterization issues from the large-scale circulation. The analysis emphasizes on how the change of vertical resolution could affect precipitation partitioning between convective- and grid-scale as well as the vertical profiles of convection-related quantities such as temperature, humidity, clouds, convective heating and drying, and entrainment and detrainment. The goal is to provide physical insight into potential issues with model convective processes associated with the increase of model vertical resolution. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  7. Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

    2010-01-01

    As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

  8. Basal plasma insulin and homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) are indicators of insulin sensitivity in cats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appleton, D J; Rand, J S; Sunvold, G D

    2005-06-01

    The objective of this study was to compare simpler indices of insulin sensitivity with the minimal model-derived insulin sensitivity index to identify a simple and reliable alternative method for assessing insulin sensitivity in cats. In addition, we aimed to determine whether this simpler measure or measures showed consistency of association across differing body weights and glucose tolerance levels. Data from glucose tolerance and insulin sensitivity tests performed in 32 cats with varying body weights (underweight to obese), including seven cats with impaired glucose tolerance, were used to assess the relationship between Bergman's minimal model-derived insulin sensitivity index (S(I)), and various simpler measures of insulin sensitivity. The most useful overall predictors of insulin sensitivity were basal plasma insulin concentrations and the homeostasis model assessment (HOMA), which is the product of basal glucose and insulin concentrations divided by 22.5. It is concluded that measurement of plasma insulin concentrations in cats with food withheld for 24 h, in conjunction with HOMA, could be used in clinical research projects and by practicing veterinarians to screen for reduced insulin sensitivity in cats. Such cats may be at increased risk of developing impaired glucose tolerance and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Early detection of these cats would enable preventative intervention programs such as weight reduction, increased physical activity and dietary modifications to be instigated.

  9. A Culture-Sensitive Agent in Kirman's Ant Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shu-Heng; Liou, Wen-Ching; Chen, Ting-Yu

    The global financial crisis brought a serious collapse involving a "systemic" meltdown. Internet technology and globalization have increased the chances for interaction between countries and people. The global economy has become more complex than ever before. Mark Buchanan [12] indicated that agent-based computer models will prevent another financial crisis and has been particularly influential in contributing insights. There are two reasons why culture-sensitive agent on the financial market has become so important. Therefore, the aim of this article is to establish a culture-sensitive agent and forecast the process of change regarding herding behavior in the financial market. We based our study on the Kirman's Ant Model[4,5] and Hofstede's Natational Culture[11] to establish our culture-sensitive agent based model. Kirman's Ant Model is quite famous and describes financial market herding behavior from the expectations of the future of financial investors. Hofstede's cultural consequence used the staff of IBM in 72 different countries to understand the cultural difference. As a result, this paper focuses on one of the five dimensions of culture from Hofstede: individualism versus collectivism and creates a culture-sensitive agent and predicts the process of change regarding herding behavior in the financial market. To conclude, this study will be of importance in explaining the herding behavior with cultural factors, as well as in providing researchers with a clearer understanding of how herding beliefs of people about different cultures relate to their finance market strategies.

  10. Sensitivity analysis of physiochemical interaction model: which pair ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The mathematical modelling of physiochemical interactions in the framework of industrial and environmental physics usually relies on an initial value problem which is described by a deterministic system of first order ordinary differential equations. In this paper, we considered a sensitivity analysis of studying the qualitative ...

  11. An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier for the Little Miami River (LMR) and Las Vegas Wash (LVW) watersheds were used for detail sensitivity analyses. To compare the...

  12. A model for perception-based identification of sensitive skin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Richters, R.J.H.; Uzunbajakava, N.E.; Hendriks, J.C.; Bikker, J.W.; Erp, P.E.J. van; Kerkhof, P.C.M. van de

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: With high prevalence of sensitive skin (SS), lack of strong evidence on pathomechanisms, consensus on associated symptoms, proof of existence of 'general' SS and tools to recruit subjects, this topic attracts increasing attention of research. OBJECTIVE: To create a model for selecting

  13. Culturally Sensitive Dementia Caregiving Models and Clinical Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daire, Andrew P.; Mitcham-Smith, Michelle

    2006-01-01

    Family caregiving for individuals with dementia is an increasingly complex issue that affects the caregivers' and care recipients' physical, mental, and emotional health. This article presents 3 key culturally sensitive caregiver models along with clinical interventions relevant for mental health counseling professionals.

  14. INFERENCE AND SENSITIVITY IN STOCHASTIC WIND POWER FORECAST MODELS.

    KAUST Repository

    Elkantassi, Soumaya

    2017-10-03

    Reliable forecasting of wind power generation is crucial to optimal control of costs in generation of electricity with respect to the electricity demand. Here, we propose and analyze stochastic wind power forecast models described by parametrized stochastic differential equations, which introduce appropriate fluctuations in numerical forecast outputs. We use an approximate maximum likelihood method to infer the model parameters taking into account the time correlated sets of data. Furthermore, we study the validity and sensitivity of the parameters for each model. We applied our models to Uruguayan wind power production as determined by historical data and corresponding numerical forecasts for the period of March 1 to May 31, 2016.

  15. A non-human primate model for gluten sensitivity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael T Bethune

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Gluten sensitivity is widespread among humans. For example, in celiac disease patients, an inflammatory response to dietary gluten leads to enteropathy, malabsorption, circulating antibodies against gluten and transglutaminase 2, and clinical symptoms such as diarrhea. There is a growing need in fundamental and translational research for animal models that exhibit aspects of human gluten sensitivity.Using ELISA-based antibody assays, we screened a population of captive rhesus macaques with chronic diarrhea of non-infectious origin to estimate the incidence of gluten sensitivity. A selected animal with elevated anti-gliadin antibodies and a matched control were extensively studied through alternating periods of gluten-free diet and gluten challenge. Blinded clinical and histological evaluations were conducted to seek evidence for gluten sensitivity.When fed with a gluten-containing diet, gluten-sensitive macaques showed signs and symptoms of celiac disease including chronic diarrhea, malabsorptive steatorrhea, intestinal lesions and anti-gliadin antibodies. A gluten-free diet reversed these clinical, histological and serological features, while reintroduction of dietary gluten caused rapid relapse.Gluten-sensitive rhesus macaques may be an attractive resource for investigating both the pathogenesis and the treatment of celiac disease.

  16. ABSTRACT: CONTAMINANT TRAVEL TIMES FROM THE NEVADA TEST SITE TO YUCCA MOUNTAIN: SENSITIVITY TO POROSITY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karl F. Pohlmann; Jianting Zhu; Jenny B. Chapman; Charles E. Russell; Rosemary W. H. Carroll; David S. Shafer

    2008-01-01

    Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, has been proposed by the U.S. Department of Energy as a geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. In this study, we investigate the potential for groundwater advective pathways from underground nuclear testing areas on the Nevada Test Site (NTS) to the YM area by estimating the timeframe for advective travel and its uncertainty resulting from porosity value uncertainty for hydrogeologic units (HGUs) in the region. We perform sensitivity analysis to determine the most influential HGUs on advective radionuclide travel times from the NTS to the YM area. Groundwater pathways and advective travel times are obtained using the particle tracking package MODPATH and flow results from the Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS) model by the U.S. Geological Survey. Values and uncertainties of HGU porosities are quantified through evaluation of existing site porosity data and expert professional judgment and are incorporated through Monte Carlo simulations to estimate mean travel times and uncertainties. We base our simulations on two steady state flow scenarios for the purpose of long term prediction and monitoring. The first represents pre-pumping conditions prior to groundwater development in the area in 1912 (the initial stress period of the DVRFS model). The second simulates 1998 pumping (assuming steady state conditions resulting from pumping in the last stress period of the DVRFS model). Considering underground tests in a clustered region around Pahute Mesa on the NTS as initial particle positions, we track these particles forward using MODPATH to identify hydraulically downgradient groundwater discharge zones and to determine which flowpaths will intercept the YM area. Out of the 71 tests in the saturated zone, flowpaths of 23 intercept the YM area under the pre-pumping scenario. For the 1998 pumping scenario, flowpaths from 55 of the 71 tests intercept the YM area. The results illustrate that mean

  17. Sensitivity analysis of machine-learning models of hydrologic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Reilly, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Sensitivity analysis traditionally has been applied to assessing model response to perturbations in model parameters, where the parameters are those model input variables adjusted during calibration. Unlike physics-based models where parameters represent real phenomena, the equivalent of parameters for machine-learning models are simply mathematical "knobs" that are automatically adjusted during training/testing/verification procedures. Thus the challenge of extracting knowledge of hydrologic system functionality from machine-learning models lies in their very nature, leading to the label "black box." Sensitivity analysis of the forcing-response behavior of machine-learning models, however, can provide understanding of how the physical phenomena represented by model inputs affect the physical phenomena represented by model outputs.As part of a previous study, hybrid spectral-decomposition artificial neural network (ANN) models were developed to simulate the observed behavior of hydrologic response contained in multidecadal datasets of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow. Model inputs used moving window averages (MWA) to represent various frequencies and frequency-band components of time series of rainfall and groundwater use. Using these forcing time series, the MWA-ANN models were trained to predict time series of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at 51 sites in central Florida, USA. A time series of sensitivities for each MWA-ANN model was produced by perturbing forcing time-series and computing the change in response time-series per unit change in perturbation. Variations in forcing-response sensitivities are evident between types (lake, groundwater level, or spring), spatially (among sites of the same type), and temporally. Two generally common characteristics among sites are more uniform sensitivities to rainfall over time and notable increases in sensitivities to groundwater usage during significant drought periods.

  18. Visualization of nonlinear kernel models in neuroimaging by sensitivity maps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, P.M.; Madsen, Kristoffer H; Lund, T.E.

    There is significant current interest in decoding mental states from neuroimages. In this context kernel methods, e.g., support vector machines (SVM) are frequently adopted to learn statistical relations between patterns of brain activation and experimental conditions. In this paper we focus...... on visualization of such nonlinear kernel models. Specifically, we investigate the sensitivity map as a technique for generation of global summary maps of kernel classification methods. We illustrate the performance of the sensitivity map on functional magnetic resonance (fMRI) data based on visual stimuli. We...

  19. A simple in chemico method for testing skin sensitizing potential of chemicals using small endogenous molecules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nepal, Mahesh Raj; Shakya, Rajina; Kang, Mi Jeong; Jeong, Tae Cheon

    2018-06-01

    Among many of the validated methods for testing skin sensitization, direct peptide reactivity assay (DPRA) employs no cells or animals. Although no immune cells are involved in this assay, it reliably predicts the skin sensitization potential of a chemical in chemico. Herein, a new method was developed using endogenous small-molecular-weight compounds, cysteamine and glutathione, rather than synthetic peptides, to differentiate skin sensitizers from non-sensitizers with an accuracy as high as DPRA. The percent depletion of cysteamine and glutathione by test chemicals was measured by an HPLC equipped with a PDA detector. To detect small-size molecules, such as cysteamine and glutathione, a derivatization by 4-(4-dimethylaminophenylazo) benzenesulfonyl chloride (DABS-Cl) was employed prior to the HPLC analysis. Following test method optimization, a cut-off criterion of 7.14% depletion was applied to differentiate skin sensitizers from non-sensitizers in combination of the ratio of 1:25 for cysteamine:test chemical with 1:50 for glutathione:test chemical for the best predictivity among various single or combination conditions. Although overlapping HPLC peaks could not be fully resolved for some test chemicals, high levels of sensitivity (100.0%), specificity (81.8%), and accuracy (93.3%) were obtained for 30 chemicals tested, which were comparable or better than those achieved with DPRA. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Development and validation of a highly sensitive urine-based test to identify patients with colonic adenomatous polyps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Haili; Tso, Victor; Wong, Clarence; Sadowski, Dan; Fedorak, Richard N

    2014-03-20

    Adenomatous polyps are precursors of colorectal cancer; their detection and removal is the goal of colon cancer screening programs. However, fecal-based methods identify patients with adenomatous polyps with low levels of sensitivity. The aim or this study was to develop a highly accurate, prototypic, proof-of-concept, spot urine-based diagnostic test using metabolomic technology to distinguish persons with adenomatous polyps from those without polyps. Prospective urine and stool samples were collected from 876 participants undergoing colonoscopy examination in a colon cancer screening program, from April 2008 to October 2009 at the University of Alberta. Colonoscopy reference standard identified 633 participants with no colonic polyps and 243 with colonic adenomatous polyps. One-dimensional nuclear magnetic resonance spectra of urine metabolites were analyzed to define a diagnostic metabolomic profile for colonic adenomas. A urine metabolomic diagnostic test for colonic adenomatous polyps was established using 67% of the samples (un-blinded training set) and validated using the other 33% of the samples (blinded testing set). The urine metabolomic diagnostic test's specificity and sensitivity were compared with those of fecal-based tests. Using a two-component, orthogonal, partial least-squares model of the metabolomic profile, the un-blinded training set identified patients with colonic adenomatous polyps with 88.9% sensitivity and 50.2% specificity. Validation using the blinded testing set confirmed sensitivity and specificity values of 82.7% and 51.2%, respectively. Sensitivities of fecal-based tests to identify colonic adenomas ranged from 2.5 to 11.9%. We describe a proof-of-concept spot urine-based metabolomic diagnostic test that identifies patients with colonic adenomatous polyps with a greater level of sensitivity (83%) than fecal-based tests.

  1. Therapeutic Implications from Sensitivity Analysis of Tumor Angiogenesis Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poleszczuk, Jan; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Enderling, Heiko

    2015-01-01

    Anti-angiogenic cancer treatments induce tumor starvation and regression by targeting the tumor vasculature that delivers oxygen and nutrients. Mathematical models prove valuable tools to study the proof-of-concept, efficacy and underlying mechanisms of such treatment approaches. The effects of parameter value uncertainties for two models of tumor development under angiogenic signaling and anti-angiogenic treatment are studied. Data fitting is performed to compare predictions of both models and to obtain nominal parameter values for sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the success of different cancer treatments depends on tumor size and tumor intrinsic parameters. In particular, we show that tumors with ample vascular support can be successfully targeted with conventional cytotoxic treatments. On the other hand, tumors with curtailed vascular support are not limited by their growth rate and therefore interruption of neovascularization emerges as the most promising treatment target. PMID:25785600

  2. Sensitivity experiments to mountain representations in spectral models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Schlese

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a set of sensitivity experiments to several formulations of orography. Three sets are considered: a "Standard" orography consisting of an envelope orography produced originally for the ECMWF model, a"Navy" orography directly from the US Navy data and a "Scripps" orography based on the data set originally compiled several years ago at Scripps. The last two are mean orographies which do not use the envelope enhancement. A new filtering technique for handling the problem of Gibbs oscillations in spectral models has been used to produce the "Navy" and "Scripps" orographies, resulting in smoother fields than the "Standard" orography. The sensitivity experiments show that orography is still an important factor in controlling the model performance even in this class of models that use a semi-lagrangian formulation for water vapour, that in principle should be less sensitive to Gibbs oscillations than the Eulerian formulation. The largest impact can be seen in the stationary waves (asymmetric part of the geopotential at 500 mb where the differences in total height and spatial pattern generate up to 60 m differences, and in the surface fields where the Gibbs removal procedure is successful in alleviating the appearance of unrealistic oscillations over the ocean. These results indicate that Gibbs oscillations also need to be treated in this class of models. The best overall result is obtained using the "Navy" data set, that achieves a good compromise between amplitude of the stationary waves and smoothness of the surface fields.

  3. Organic polyaromatic hydrocarbons as sensitizing model dyes for semiconductor nanoparticles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongyi; Galoppini, Elena

    2010-04-26

    The study of interfacial charge-transfer processes (sensitization) of a dye bound to large-bandgap nanostructured metal oxide semiconductors, including TiO(2), ZnO, and SnO(2), is continuing to attract interest in various areas of renewable energy, especially for the development of dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs). The scope of this Review is to describe how selected model sensitizers prepared from organic polyaromatic hydrocarbons have been used over the past 15 years to elucidate, through a variety of techniques, fundamental aspects of heterogeneous charge transfer at the surface of a semiconductor. This Review does not focus on the most recent or efficient dyes, but rather on how model dyes prepared from aromatic hydrocarbons have been used, over time, in key fundamental studies of heterogeneous charge transfer. In particular, we describe model chromophores prepared from anthracene, pyrene, perylene, and azulene. As the level of complexity of the model dye-bridge-anchor group compounds has increased, the understanding of some aspects of very complex charge transfer events has improved. The knowledge acquired from the study of the described model dyes is of importance not only for DSSC development but also to other fields of science for which electronic processes at the molecule/semiconductor interface are relevant.

  4. Prior Sensitivity Analysis in Default Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Erp, Sara; Mulder, Joris; Oberski, Daniel L

    2017-11-27

    Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) has recently gained popularity because it enables researchers to fit complex models and solve some of the issues often encountered in classical maximum likelihood estimation, such as nonconvergence and inadmissible solutions. An important component of any Bayesian analysis is the prior distribution of the unknown model parameters. Often, researchers rely on default priors, which are constructed in an automatic fashion without requiring substantive prior information. However, the prior can have a serious influence on the estimation of the model parameters, which affects the mean squared error, bias, coverage rates, and quantiles of the estimates. In this article, we investigate the performance of three different default priors: noninformative improper priors, vague proper priors, and empirical Bayes priors-with the latter being novel in the BSEM literature. Based on a simulation study, we find that these three default BSEM methods may perform very differently, especially with small samples. A careful prior sensitivity analysis is therefore needed when performing a default BSEM analysis. For this purpose, we provide a practical step-by-step guide for practitioners to conducting a prior sensitivity analysis in default BSEM. Our recommendations are illustrated using a well-known case study from the structural equation modeling literature, and all code for conducting the prior sensitivity analysis is available in the online supplemental materials. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Anxiety sensitivity predicts increased perceived exertion during a 1-mile walk test among treatment-seeking smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farris, Samantha G; Uebelacker, Lisa A; Brown, Richard A; Price, Lawrence H; Desaulniers, Julie; Abrantes, Ana M

    2017-12-01

    Smoking increases risk of early morbidity and mortality, and risk is compounded by physical inactivity. Anxiety sensitivity (fear of anxiety-relevant somatic sensations) is a cognitive factor that may amplify the subjective experience of exertion (effort) during exercise, subsequently resulting in lower engagement in physical activity. We examined the effect of anxiety sensitivity on ratings of perceived exertion (RPE) and physiological arousal (heart rate) during a bout of exercise among low-active treatment-seeking smokers. Adult daily smokers (n = 157; M age  = 44.9, SD = 11.13; 69.4% female) completed the Rockport 1.0 mile submaximal treadmill walk test. RPE and heart rate were assessed during the walk test. Multi-level modeling was used to examine the interactive effect of anxiety sensitivity × time on RPE and on heart rate at five time points during the walk test. There were significant linear and cubic time × anxiety sensitivity effects for RPE. High anxiety sensitivity was associated with greater initial increases in RPE during the walk test, with stabilized ratings towards the last 5 min, whereas low anxiety sensitivity was associated with lower initial increase in RPE which stabilized more quickly. The linear time × anxiety sensitivity effect for heart rate was not significant. Anxiety sensitivity is associated with increasing RPE during moderate-intensity exercise. Persistently rising RPE observed for smokers with high anxiety sensitivity may contribute to the negative experience of exercise, resulting in early termination of bouts of prolonged activity and/or decreased likelihood of future engagement in physical activity.

  6. Research on quasi-dynamic calibration model of plastic sensitive element based on neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fang; Kong, Deren; Yang, Lixia; Zhang, Zouzou

    2017-08-01

    Quasi-dynamic calibration accuracy of the plastic sensitive element depends on the accuracy of the fitting model between pressure and deformation. By using the excellent nonlinear mapping ability of RBF (Radial Basis Function) neural network, a calibration model is established which use the peak pressure as the input and use the deformation of the plastic sensitive element as the output in this paper. The calibration experiments of a batch of copper cylinders are carried out on the quasi-dynamic pressure calibration device, which pressure range is within the range of 200MPa to 700MPa. The experiment data are acquired according to the standard pressure monitoring system. The network train and study are done to quasi dynamic calibration model based on neural network by using MATLAB neural network toolbox. Taking the testing samples as the research object, the prediction accuracy of neural network model is compared with the exponential fitting model and the second-order polynomial fitting model. The results show that prediction of the neural network model is most close to the testing samples, and the accuracy of prediction model based on neural network is better than 0.5%, respectively one order higher than the second-order polynomial fitting model and two orders higher than the exponential fitting model. The quasi-dynamic calibration model between pressure peak and deformation of plastic sensitive element, which is based on neural network, provides important basis for creating higher accuracy quasi-dynamic calibration table.

  7. Sensitivity and specificity of point-of-care rapid combination syphilis-HIV-HCV tests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristen L Hess

    Full Text Available New rapid point-of-care (POC tests are being developed that would offer the opportunity to increase screening and treatment of several infections, including syphilis. This study evaluated three of these new rapid POC tests at a site in Southern California.Participants were recruited from a testing center in Long Beach, California. A whole blood specimen was used to evaluate the performance of the Dual Path Platform (DPP Syphilis Screen & Confirm, DPP HIV-Syphilis, and DPP HIV-HCV-Syphilis rapid tests. The gold-standard comparisons were Treponema pallidum passive particle agglutination (TPPA, rapid plasma reagin (RPR, HCV enzyme immunoassay (EIA, and HIV-1/2 EIA.A total of 948 whole blood specimens were analyzed in this study. The sensitivity of the HIV tests ranged from 95.7-100% and the specificity was 99.7-100%. The sensitivity and specificity of the HCV test were 91.8% and 99.3%, respectively. The treponemal-test sensitivity when compared to TPPA ranged from 44.0-52.7% and specificity was 98.7-99.6%. The non-treponemal test sensitivity and specificity when compared to RPR was 47.8% and 98.9%, respectively. The sensitivity of the Screen & Confirm test improved to 90.0% when cases who were both treponemal and nontreponemal positive were compared to TPPA+/RPR ≥ 1 ∶ 8.The HIV and HCV on the multi-infection tests showed good performance, but the treponemal and nontreponemal tests had low sensitivity. These results could be due to a low prevalence of active syphilis in the sample population because the sensitivity improved when the gold standard was limited to those more likely to be active cases. Further evaluation of the new syphilis POC tests is required before implementation into testing programs.

  8. 46 CFR 154.431 - Model test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ...(c). (b) Analyzed data of a model test for the primary and secondary barrier of the membrane tank... Model test. (a) The primary and secondary barrier of a membrane tank, including the corners and joints...

  9. Stochastic sensitivity of a bistable energy model for visual perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisarchik, Alexander N.; Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryashko, Lev

    2017-01-01

    Modern trends in physiology, psychology and cognitive neuroscience suggest that noise is an essential component of brain functionality and self-organization. With adequate noise the brain as a complex dynamical system can easily access different ordered states and improve signal detection for decision-making by preventing deadlocks. Using a stochastic sensitivity function approach, we analyze how sensitive equilibrium points are to Gaussian noise in a bistable energy model often used for qualitative description of visual perception. The probability distribution of noise-induced transitions between two coexisting percepts is calculated at different noise intensity and system stability. Stochastic squeezing of the hysteresis range and its transition from positive (bistable regime) to negative (intermittency regime) are demonstrated as the noise intensity increases. The hysteresis is more sensitive to noise in the system with higher stability.

  10. Sensitivity analysis of an Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor control rod model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, M.; Green, P.L.; O’Driscoll, D.; Worden, K.; Sims, N.D.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A model was made of the AGR control rod mechanism. • The aim was to better understand the performance when shutting down the reactor. • The model showed good agreement with test data. • Sensitivity analysis was carried out. • The results demonstrated the robustness of the system. - Abstract: A model has been made of the primary shutdown system of an Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor nuclear power station. The aim of this paper is to explore the use of sensitivity analysis techniques on this model. The two motivations for performing sensitivity analysis are to quantify how much individual uncertain parameters are responsible for the model output uncertainty, and to make predictions about what could happen if one or several parameters were to change. Global sensitivity analysis techniques were used based on Gaussian process emulation; the software package GEM-SA was used to calculate the main effects, the main effect index and the total sensitivity index for each parameter and these were compared to local sensitivity analysis results. The results suggest that the system performance is resistant to adverse changes in several parameters at once.

  11. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for photovoltaic system modeling.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, Clifford W. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Pohl, Andrew Phillip [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jordan, Dirk [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-12-01

    We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling DC energy from photovoltaic systems. We consider two systems, each comprised of a single module using either crystalline silicon or CdTe cells, and located either at Albuquerque, NM, or Golden, CO. Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. Uncertainty in the output of each model is quantified by empirical distributions of each model's residuals. We sample these distributions to propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models to obtain an empirical distribution for each PV system's output. We considered models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane-of-array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance from plane-of-array irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; and (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power. We found that the uncertainty in PV system output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. Four alternative models were considered for the POA irradiance modeling step; we did not find the choice of one of these models to be of great significance. However, we observed that the POA irradiance model introduced a bias of upwards of 5% of daily energy which translates directly to a systematic difference in predicted energy. Sensitivity analyses relate uncertainty in the PV system output to uncertainty arising from each model. We found that the residuals arising from the POA irradiance and the effective irradiance models to be the dominant contributors to residuals for daily energy, for either technology or location considered. This analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output should focus on improvements to the POA and effective irradiance models.

  12. Recursive Model Identification for the Evaluation of Baroreflex Sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Rolle, Virginie; Beuchée, Alain; Praud, Jean-Paul; Samson, Nathalie; Pladys, Patrick; Hernández, Alfredo I

    2016-12-01

    A method for the recursive identification of physiological models of the cardiovascular baroreflex is proposed and applied to the time-varying analysis of vagal and sympathetic activities. The proposed method was evaluated with data from five newborn lambs, which were acquired during injection of vasodilator and vasoconstrictors and the results show a close match between experimental and simulated signals. The model-based estimation of vagal and sympathetic contributions were consistent with physiological knowledge and the obtained estimators of vagal and sympathetic activities were compared to traditional markers associated with baroreflex sensitivity. High correlations were observed between traditional markers and model-based indices.

  13. Seepage Calibration Model and Seepage Testing Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixon, P.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this Model Report is to document the Seepage Calibration Model (SCM). The SCM is developed (1) to establish the conceptual basis for the Seepage Model for Performance Assessment (SMPA), and (2) to derive seepage-relevant, model-related parameters and their distributions for use in the SMPA and seepage abstraction in support of the Total System Performance Assessment for License Application (TSPA-LA). The SCM is intended to be used only within this Model Report for the estimation of seepage-relevant parameters through calibration of the model against seepage-rate data from liquid-release tests performed in several niches along the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) Main Drift and in the Cross Drift. The SCM does not predict seepage into waste emplacement drifts under thermal or ambient conditions. Seepage predictions for waste emplacement drifts under ambient conditions will be performed with the SMPA (see upcoming REV 02 of CRWMS M and O 2000 [153314]), which inherits the conceptual basis and model-related parameters from the SCM. Seepage during the thermal period is examined separately in the Thermal Hydrologic (TH) Seepage Model (see BSC 2003 [161530]). The scope of this work is (1) to evaluate seepage rates measured during liquid-release experiments performed in several niches in the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) and in the Cross Drift, which was excavated for enhanced characterization of the repository block (ECRB); (2) to evaluate air-permeability data measured in boreholes above the niches and the Cross Drift to obtain the permeability structure for the seepage model; (3) to use inverse modeling to calibrate the SCM and to estimate seepage-relevant, model-related parameters on the drift scale; (4) to estimate the epistemic uncertainty of the derived parameters, based on the goodness-of-fit to the observed data and the sensitivity of calculated seepage with respect to the parameters of interest; (5) to characterize the aleatory uncertainty

  14. Seepage Calibration Model and Seepage Testing Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    P. Dixon

    2004-02-17

    The purpose of this Model Report is to document the Seepage Calibration Model (SCM). The SCM is developed (1) to establish the conceptual basis for the Seepage Model for Performance Assessment (SMPA), and (2) to derive seepage-relevant, model-related parameters and their distributions for use in the SMPA and seepage abstraction in support of the Total System Performance Assessment for License Application (TSPA-LA). The SCM is intended to be used only within this Model Report for the estimation of seepage-relevant parameters through calibration of the model against seepage-rate data from liquid-release tests performed in several niches along the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) Main Drift and in the Cross Drift. The SCM does not predict seepage into waste emplacement drifts under thermal or ambient conditions. Seepage predictions for waste emplacement drifts under ambient conditions will be performed with the SMPA (see upcoming REV 02 of CRWMS M&O 2000 [153314]), which inherits the conceptual basis and model-related parameters from the SCM. Seepage during the thermal period is examined separately in the Thermal Hydrologic (TH) Seepage Model (see BSC 2003 [161530]). The scope of this work is (1) to evaluate seepage rates measured during liquid-release experiments performed in several niches in the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) and in the Cross Drift, which was excavated for enhanced characterization of the repository block (ECRB); (2) to evaluate air-permeability data measured in boreholes above the niches and the Cross Drift to obtain the permeability structure for the seepage model; (3) to use inverse modeling to calibrate the SCM and to estimate seepage-relevant, model-related parameters on the drift scale; (4) to estimate the epistemic uncertainty of the derived parameters, based on the goodness-of-fit to the observed data and the sensitivity of calculated seepage with respect to the parameters of interest; (5) to characterize the aleatory uncertainty of

  15. Bayesian estimation of sensitivity and specificity of Coxiella burnetii antibody ELISA tests in bovine blood and milk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paul, Suman; Toft, Nils; Agerholm, Jørgen S.

    2013-01-01

    of the ELISA methods on milk and blood were equal at 0.99. No conditional dependence was observed between the specificity estimates of the two test methods. However, the sensitivity estimates of both tests were significantly reduced when conditional covariances ≥40 were used. Collection of milk samples from......Serological tests for Coxiella burnetii (the causative agent of Q fever) antibodies are usually based on enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) although this method is not thoroughly evaluated. The objective of this study was to determine the sensitivity and specificity of an ELISA for detection...... of C. burnetii antibodies in milk and blood samples, using latent class models in a Bayesian analysis. Blood and milk samples of 568 lactating cows from 17 Danish dairy cattle herds collected in 2008 were used.The best combination of sensitivity and specificity estimates was revealed at a sample...

  16. Temporal evolution of the sensitivity determined during the extrinsic uniformity test on two gamma cameras

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vazquez Vazquez, R.; Sanchez Garcia, M.; Santamarina Vazquez, F.; Sorro Bua, M.; Luna Vega, V.; Mosquera Sueiro, J.; Otero Martinez, C.; Lobato Busto, R.; Pombar Camean, M.

    2011-01-01

    One of the suggestions in the new Protocol (February 2010) of the European Association of Nuclear Medicine R outine quality control recommendations for nuclear medicine instrumentation is to record the value cps / MBq obtained in carrying out this test to track sensitivity thus obtained. Ideally, this sensitivity should remain constant over time. At our institution this parameter has been registered since February 2009. In this paper we analyze data collected through December 2010 (23 months), relating the apparent loss of sensitivity downtime losses.

  17. An adaptive Mantel-Haenszel test for sensitivity analysis in observational studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenbaum, Paul R; Small, Dylan S

    2017-06-01

    In a sensitivity analysis in an observational study with a binary outcome, is it better to use all of the data or to focus on subgroups that are expected to experience the largest treatment effects? The answer depends on features of the data that may be difficult to anticipate, a trade-off between unknown effect-sizes and known sample sizes. We propose a sensitivity analysis for an adaptive test similar to the Mantel-Haenszel test. The adaptive test performs two highly correlated analyses, one focused analysis using a subgroup, one combined analysis using all of the data, correcting for multiple testing using the joint distribution of the two test statistics. Because the two component tests are highly correlated, this correction for multiple testing is small compared with, for instance, the Bonferroni inequality. The test has the maximum design sensitivity of two component tests. A simulation evaluates the power of a sensitivity analysis using the adaptive test. Two examples are presented. An R package, sensitivity2x2xk, implements the procedure. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  18. Model-based testing for software safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gurbuz, Havva Gulay; Tekinerdogan, Bedir

    2017-01-01

    Testing safety-critical systems is crucial since a failure or malfunction may result in death or serious injuries to people, equipment, or environment. An important challenge in testing is the derivation of test cases that can identify the potential faults. Model-based testing adopts models of a

  19. Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Zhijun

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.

  20. Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhijun; Qin, Wenchao; Shi, Bin; Gao, Jingxin; Zhang, Shiwei

    2017-06-01

    The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.

  1. Piezoresistive Cantilever Performance—Part I: Analytical Model for Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sung-Jin; Doll, Joseph C.; Pruitt, Beth L.

    2010-01-01

    An accurate analytical model for the change in resistance of a piezoresistor is necessary for the design of silicon piezoresistive transducers. Ion implantation requires a high-temperature oxidation or annealing process to activate the dopant atoms, and this treatment results in a distorted dopant profile due to diffusion. Existing analytical models do not account for the concentration dependence of piezoresistance and are not accurate for nonuniform dopant profiles. We extend previous analytical work by introducing two nondimensional factors, namely, the efficiency and geometry factors. A practical benefit of this efficiency factor is that it separates the process parameters from the design parameters; thus, designers may address requirements for cantilever geometry and fabrication process independently. To facilitate the design process, we provide a lookup table for the efficiency factor over an extensive range of process conditions. The model was validated by comparing simulation results with the experimentally determined sensitivities of piezoresistive cantilevers. We performed 9200 TSUPREM4 simulations and fabricated 50 devices from six unique process flows; we systematically explored the design space relating process parameters and cantilever sensitivity. Our treatment focuses on piezoresistive cantilevers, but the analytical sensitivity model is extensible to other piezoresistive transducers such as membrane pressure sensors. PMID:20336183

  2. A Highly Sensitive Rapid Diagnostic Test for Chagas Disease That Utilizes a Recombinant Trypanosoma cruzi Antigen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barfield, C. A.; Barney, R. S.; Crudder, C. H.; Wilmoth, J. L.; Stevens, D. S.; Mora-Garcia, S.; Yanovsky, M. J.; Weigl, B. H.; Yanovsky, J.

    2011-01-01

    Improved diagnostic tests for Chagas disease are urgently needed. A new lateral flow rapid test for Chagas disease is under development at PATH, in collaboration with Laboratorio Lemos of Argentina, which utilizes a recombinant antigen for detection of antibodies to Trypanosoma cruzi. To evaluate the performance of this test, 375 earlier characterized serum specimens from a region where Chagas is endemic were tested using a reference test (the Ortho T. cruzi ELISA, Johnson & Johnson), a commercially available rapid test (Chagas STAT-PAK, Chembio), and the PATH–Lemos rapid test. Compared to the composite reference tests, the PATH–Lemos rapid test demonstrated an optimal sensitivity of 99.5% and specificity of 96.8%, while the Chagas STAT-PAK demonstrated a sensitivity of 95.3% and specificity of 99.5%. These results indicate that the PATH–Lemos rapid test shows promise as an improved and reliable tool for screening and diagnosis of Chagas disease. PMID:21342808

  3. Spatial contrast sensitivity - Effects of age, test-retest, and psychophysical method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, Kent E.; Jaffe, Myles J.; Caruso, Rafael C.; Demonasterio, Francisco M.

    1988-01-01

    Two different psychophysical methods were used to test the spatial contrast sensitivity in normal subjects from five age groups. The method of adjustment showed a decline in sensitivity with increasing age at all spatial frequencies, while the forced-choice procedure showed an age-related decline predominantly at high spatial frequencies. It is suggested that a neural component is responsible for this decline.

  4. The sensitivity testing of Wilms' tumors to cytostatic agents with an autoradiographic in vitro short-term test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willnow, U.

    1984-01-01

    Sensitivity of 15 Wilms' tumors in children was tested towards cytostatic agents in vitro by means of an autoradiographic short-term test. Sensitivity was measured as the magnitude of the inhibition of 3 H-thymidine or 3 H-uridine incorporation. The test was performed with Adriamycin, Actinomycin D, Daunomycin, Bleomycin, Cyclophosphamide, Ifosfamide, Trenimon, and Arabinosylcytosine. None of the tumors is resistant to all substances, they are responsive against 2 or more drugs. The most effective drugs tested are Adriamycin, Actinomycin D and Cyclophosphamide. The tumors show a marked individual sensitivity pattern. This behavior is explained mainly by the usually high proliferative activity of Wilms' tumors. The possibilities and limits of long-term and short-term methods for sensitivity testing are discussed critically. For the evaluation of the results of in vitro testing and in vivo effectiveness the close correlation should be considered between the type of cytostatic agent and proliferation kinetics of the tumor, cytostatic agent and effect on tumor metabolism as well as the effect of the cytostatics and the nucleic acid precursors used for the short-term test. Despite the methodological limitations preclinical testing should be preferred to unselected chemotherapy. (author)

  5. Sensitivity test of parameterizations of subgrid-scale orographic form drag in the NCAR CESM1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yishuang; Wang, Lanning; Zhang, Guang Jun; Wu, Qizhong

    2017-05-01

    Turbulent drag caused by subgrid orographic form drag has significant effects on the atmosphere. It is represented through parameterization in large-scale numerical prediction models. An indirect parameterization scheme, the Turbulent Mountain Stress scheme (TMS), is currently used in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model v1.0.4. In this study we test a direct scheme referred to as BBW04 (Beljaars et al. in Q J R Meteorol Soc 130:1327-1347, 10.1256/qj.03.73), which has been used in several short-term weather forecast models and earth system models. Results indicate that both the indirect and direct schemes increase surface wind stress and improve the model's performance in simulating low-level wind speed over complex orography compared to the simulation without subgrid orographic effect. It is shown that the TMS scheme produces a more intense wind speed adjustment, leading to lower wind speed near the surface. The low-level wind speed by the BBW04 scheme agrees better with the ERA-Interim reanalysis and is more sensitive to complex orography as a direct method. Further, the TMS scheme increases the 2-m temperature and planetary boundary layer height over large areas of tropical and subtropical Northern Hemisphere land.

  6. A Comparison of Procedures for Content-Sensitive Item Selection in Computerized Adaptive Tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingsbury, G. Gage; Zara, Anthony R.

    1991-01-01

    This simulation investigated two procedures that reduce differences between paper-and-pencil testing and computerized adaptive testing (CAT) by making CAT content sensitive. Results indicate that the price in terms of additional test items of using constrained CAT for content balancing is much smaller than that of using testlets. (SLD)

  7. Improved sensitivity testing of explosives using transformed Up-Down methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Geoffrey W

    2014-01-01

    Sensitivity tests provide data that help establish guidelines for the safe handling of explosives. Any sensitivity test is based on assumptions to simplify the method or reduce the number of individual sample evaluations. Two common assumptions that are not typically checked after testing are 1) explosive response follows a normal distribution as a function of the applied stimulus levels and 2) the chosen test level spacing is close to the standard deviation of the explosive response function (for Bruceton Up-Down testing for example). These assumptions and other limitations of traditional explosive sensitivity testing can be addressed using Transformed Up-Down (TUD) test methods. TUD methods have been developed extensively for psychometric testing over the past 50 years and generally use multiple tests at a given level to determine how to adjust the applied stimulus. In the context of explosive sensitivity we can use TUD methods that concentrate testing around useful probability levels. Here, these methods are explained and compared to Bruceton Up-Down testing using computer simulation. The results show that the TUD methods are more useful for many cases but that they do require more tests as a consequence. For non-normal distributions, however, the TUD methods may be the only accurate assessment method.

  8. Repeated patch testing to nickel during childhood do not induce nickel sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søgaard Christiansen, Elisabeth

    2014-01-01

    Background: Previously, patch test reactivity to nickel sulphate in a cohort of unselected infants tested repeatedly at 3-72 months of age has been reported. A reproducible positive reaction at 12 and 18 months was selected as a sign of nickel sensitivity, provided a patch test with an empty Finn...

  9. Sensitivity of the improved Dutch tube diffusion test for detection of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The sensitivity of the improved two-tube test for detection of antimicrobial residues in Kenyan milk was investigated by comparison with the commercial Delvo test SP. Suspect positive milk samples (n =244) from five milk collection centers, were analyzed with the improved two-tube and the commercial Delvo SP test as per ...

  10. Fast Pressure-Sensitive Paint System for Production Wind Tunnel Testing, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Significant advances in the use of fast responding Pressure-Sensitive Paint have recently been achieved as demonstrated by a multi-camera fast PSP test conducted in...

  11. High Sensitivity, High Frequency Sensors for Hypervelocity Testing and Analysis, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This NASA Phase II SBIR program would develop high sensitivity, high frequency nanomembrane based surface sensors for hypervelocity testing and analysis on wind...

  12. High Sensitivity, High Frequency Sensors for Hypervelocity Testing and Analysis, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This NASA Phase I SBIR program would develop high sensitivity, high frequency nanomembrane (NM) based surface sensors for hypervelocity testing and analysis on wind...

  13. Sensitive KIT D816V mutation analysis of blood as a diagnostic test in mastocytosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kielsgaard Kristensen, Thomas; Vestergaard, Hanne; Bindslev-Jensen, Carsten

    2014-01-01

    The recent progress in sensitive KIT D816V mutation analysis suggests that mutation analysis of peripheral blood (PB) represents a promising diagnostic test in mastocytosis. However, there is a need for systematic assessment of the analytical sensitivity and specificity of the approach in order...... to establish its value in clinical use. We therefore evaluated sensitive KIT D816V mutation analysis of PB as a diagnostic test in an entire case-series of adults with mastocytosis. We demonstrate for the first time that by using a sufficiently sensitive KIT D816V mutation analysis, it is possible to detect...... the mutation in PB in nearly all adult mastocytosis patients. The mutation was detected in PB in 78 of 83 systemic mastocytosis (94%) and 3 of 4 cutaneous mastocytosis patients (75%). The test was 100% specific as determined by analysis of clinically relevant control patients who all tested negative. Mutation...

  14. Parameter sensitivity analysis for activated sludge models No. 1 and 3 combined with one-dimensional settling model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J R; Ko, J H; Lee, J J; Kim, S H; Park, T J; Kim, C W; Woo, H J

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this study was to suggest a sensitivity analysis technique that can reliably predict effluent quality and minimize calibration efforts without being seriously affected by influent composition and parameter uncertainty in the activated sludge models No. 1 (ASM1) and No. 3 (ASM3) with a settling model. The parameter sensitivities for ASM1 and ASM3 were analyzed by three techniques such as SVM-Slope, RVM-SlopeMA, and RVM-AreaCRF. The settling model parameters were also considered. The selected highly sensitive parameters were estimated with a genetic algorithm, and the simulation results were compared as deltaEQ. For ASM1, the SVM-Slope technique proved to be an acceptable approach because it identified consistent sensitive parameter sets and presented smaller deltaEQ under every tested condition. For ASM3, no technique identified consistently sensitive parameters under different conditions. This phenomenon was regarded as the reflection of the high sensitivity of the ASM3 parameters. But it should be noted that the SVM-Slope technique presented reliable deltaEQ under every influent condition. Moreover, it was the simplest and easiest methodology for coding and quantification among those tested. Therefore, it was concluded that the SVM-Slope technique could be a reasonable approach for both ASM1 and ASM3.

  15. Vehicle rollover sensor test modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McCoy, R.W.; Chou, C.C.; Velde, R. van de; Twisk, D.; Schie, C. van

    2007-01-01

    A computational model of a mid-size sport utility vehicle was developed using MADYMO. The model includes a detailed description of the suspension system and tire characteristics that incorporated the Delft-Tyre magic formula description. The model was correlated by simulating a vehicle suspension

  16. Increased Sensitization to Mold Allergens Measured by Intradermal Skin Testing following Hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saporta, Diego; Hurst, David

    2017-01-01

    Objective . To report on changes in sensitivity to mold allergens determined by changes in intradermal skin testing reactivity, after exposure to two severe hurricanes. Methods . A random, retrospective allergy charts review divided into 2 groups of 100 patients each: Group A, patients tested between 2003 and 2010 prior to hurricanes, and Group B, patients tested in 2014 and 2015 following hurricanes. Reactivity to eighteen molds was determined by intradermal skin testing. Test results, age, and respiratory symptoms were recorded. Chi-square test determined reactivity/sensitivity differences between groups. Results . Posthurricane patients had 34.6 times more positive results ( p hurricanes ( p hurricanes ( p hurricanes. This supports climatologists' hypothesis that environmental changes resulting from hurricanes can be a health risk as reflected in increased allergic sensitivities and symptoms and has significant implications for physicians treating patients from affected areas.

  17. Efficient transfer of sensitivity information in multi-component models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-Khalik, Hany S.; Rabiti, Cristian

    2011-01-01

    In support of adjoint-based sensitivity analysis, this manuscript presents a new method to efficiently transfer adjoint information between components in a multi-component model, whereas the output of one component is passed as input to the next component. Often, one is interested in evaluating the sensitivities of the responses calculated by the last component to the inputs of the first component in the overall model. The presented method has two advantages over existing methods which may be classified into two broad categories: brute force-type methods and amalgamated-type methods. First, the presented method determines the minimum number of adjoint evaluations for each component as opposed to the brute force-type methods which require full evaluation of all sensitivities for all responses calculated by each component in the overall model, which proves computationally prohibitive for realistic problems. Second, the new method treats each component as a black-box as opposed to amalgamated-type methods which requires explicit knowledge of the system of equations associated with each component in order to reach the minimum number of adjoint evaluations. (author)

  18. Integrating non-animal test information into an adaptive testing strategy - skin sensitization proof of concept case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaworska, Joanna; Harol, Artsiom; Kern, Petra S; Gerberick, G Frank

    2011-01-01

    There is an urgent need to develop data integration and testing strategy frameworks allowing interpretation of results from animal alternative test batteries. To this end, we developed a Bayesian Network Integrated Testing Strategy (BN ITS) with the goal to estimate skin sensitization hazard as a test case of previously developed concepts (Jaworska et al., 2010). The BN ITS combines in silico, in chemico, and in vitro data related to skin penetration, peptide reactivity, and dendritic cell activation, and guides testing strategy by Value of Information (VoI). The approach offers novel insights into testing strategies: there is no one best testing strategy, but the optimal sequence of tests depends on information at hand, and is chemical-specific. Thus, a single generic set of tests as a replacement strategy is unlikely to be most effective. BN ITS offers the possibility of evaluating the impact of generating additional data on the target information uncertainty reduction before testing is commenced.

  19. Local sensitivity analysis of a distributed parameters water quality model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pastres, R.; Franco, D.; Pecenik, G.; Solidoro, C.; Dejak, C.

    1997-01-01

    A local sensitivity analysis is presented of a 1D water-quality reaction-diffusion model. The model describes the seasonal evolution of one of the deepest channels of the lagoon of Venice, that is affected by nutrient loads from the industrial area and heat emission from a power plant. Its state variables are: water temperature, concentrations of reduced and oxidized nitrogen, Reactive Phosphorous (RP), phytoplankton, and zooplankton densities, Dissolved Oxygen (DO) and Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD). Attention has been focused on the identifiability and the ranking of the parameters related to primary production in different mixing conditions

  20. 12th Rencontres du Vietnam : High Sensitivity Experiments Beyond the Standard Model

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this workshop is to gather researchers, theoreticians, experimentalists and young scientists searching for physics beyond the Standard Model of particle physics using high sensitivity experiments. The standard model has been very successful in describing the particle physics world; the Higgs-Englert-Brout boson discovery is its last major discovery. Complementary to the high energy frontier explored at colliders, real opportunities for discovery exist at the precision frontier, testing fundamental symmetries and tracking small SM deviations.

  1. Sensitivity, Error and Uncertainty Quantification: Interfacing Models at Different Scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krstic, Predrag S.

    2014-01-01

    Discussion on accuracy of AMO data to be used in the plasma modeling codes for astrophysics and nuclear fusion applications, including plasma-material interfaces (PMI), involves many orders of magnitude of energy, spatial and temporal scales. Thus, energies run from tens of K to hundreds of millions of K, temporal and spatial scales go from fs to years and from nm’s to m’s and more, respectively. The key challenge for the theory and simulation in this field is the consistent integration of all processes and scales, i.e. an “integrated AMO science” (IAMO). The principal goal of the IAMO science is to enable accurate studies of interactions of electrons, atoms, molecules, photons, in many-body environment, including complex collision physics of plasma-material interfaces, leading to the best decisions and predictions. However, the accuracy requirement for a particular data strongly depends on the sensitivity of the respective plasma modeling applications to these data, which stresses a need for immediate sensitivity analysis feedback of the plasma modeling and material design communities. Thus, the data provision to the plasma modeling community is a “two-way road” as long as the accuracy of the data is considered, requiring close interactions of the AMO and plasma modeling communities.

  2. Language Sensitivity, the RESPECT Model, and Continuing Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aycock, Dawn M; Sims, Traci T; Florman, Terri; Casseus, Karis T; Gordon, Paula M; Spratling, Regena G

    2017-11-01

    Some words and phrases used by health care providers may be perceived as insensitive by patients, which could negatively affect patient outcomes and satisfaction. However, a distinct concept that can be used to describe and synthesize these words and phrases does not exist. The purpose of this article is to propose the concept of language sensitivity, defined as the use of respectful, supportive, and caring words with consideration for a patient's situation and diagnosis. Examples of how language sensitivity may be lacking in nurse-patient interactions are described, and solutions are provided using the RESPECT (Rapport, Environment/Equipment, Safety, Privacy, Encouragement, Caring/Compassion, and Tact) model. RESPECT can be used as a framework to inform and remind nurses about the importance of sensitivity when communicating with patients. Various approaches can be used by nurse educators to promote language sensitivity in health care. Case studies and a lesson plan are included. J Contin Educ Nurs. 2017;48(11):517-524. Copyright 2017, SLACK Incorporated.

  3. Pressure Sensitive Paint Applied to Flexible Models Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schairer, Edward T.; Kushner, Laura Kathryn

    2014-01-01

    One gap in current pressure-measurement technology is a high-spatial-resolution method for accurately measuring pressures on spatially and temporally varying wind-tunnel models such as Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators (IADs), parachutes, and sails. Conventional pressure taps only provide sparse measurements at discrete points and are difficult to integrate with the model structure without altering structural properties. Pressure Sensitive Paint (PSP) provides pressure measurements with high spatial resolution, but its use has been limited to rigid or semi-rigid models. Extending the use of PSP from rigid surfaces to flexible surfaces would allow direct, high-spatial-resolution measurements of the unsteady surface pressure distribution. Once developed, this new capability will be combined with existing stereo photogrammetry methods to simultaneously measure the shape of a dynamically deforming model in a wind tunnel. Presented here are the results and methodology for using PSP on flexible surfaces.

  4. A reactive transport model for mercury fate in contaminated soil--sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leterme, Bertrand; Jacques, Diederik

    2015-11-01

    We present a sensitivity analysis of a reactive transport model of mercury (Hg) fate in contaminated soil systems. The one-dimensional model, presented in Leterme et al. (2014), couples water flow in variably saturated conditions with Hg physico-chemical reactions. The sensitivity of Hg leaching and volatilisation to parameter uncertainty is examined using the elementary effect method. A test case is built using a hypothetical 1-m depth sandy soil and a 50-year time series of daily precipitation and evapotranspiration. Hg anthropogenic contamination is simulated in the topsoil by separately considering three different sources: cinnabar, non-aqueous phase liquid and aqueous mercuric chloride. The model sensitivity to a set of 13 input parameters is assessed, using three different model outputs (volatilized Hg, leached Hg, Hg still present in the contaminated soil horizon). Results show that dissolved organic matter (DOM) concentration in soil solution and the binding constant to DOM thiol groups are critical parameters, as well as parameters related to Hg sorption to humic and fulvic acids in solid organic matter. Initial Hg concentration is also identified as a sensitive parameter. The sensitivity analysis also brings out non-monotonic model behaviour for certain parameters.

  5. Testing of constitutive models in LAME.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hammerand, Daniel Carl; Scherzinger, William Mark

    2007-09-01

    Constitutive models for computational solid mechanics codes are in LAME--the Library of Advanced Materials for Engineering. These models describe complex material behavior and are used in our finite deformation solid mechanics codes. To ensure the correct implementation of these models, regression tests have been created for constitutive models in LAME. A selection of these tests is documented here. Constitutive models are an important part of any solid mechanics code. If an analysis code is meant to provide accurate results, the constitutive models that describe the material behavior need to be implemented correctly. Ensuring the correct implementation of constitutive models is the goal of a testing procedure that is used with the Library of Advanced Materials for Engineering (LAME) (see [1] and [2]). A test suite for constitutive models can serve three purposes. First, the test problems provide the constitutive model developer a means to test the model implementation. This is an activity that is always done by any responsible constitutive model developer. Retaining the test problem in a repository where the problem can be run periodically is an excellent means of ensuring that the model continues to behave correctly. A second purpose of a test suite for constitutive models is that it gives application code developers confidence that the constitutive models work correctly. This is extremely important since any analyst that uses an application code for an engineering analysis will associate a constitutive model in LAME with the application code, not LAME. Therefore, ensuring the correct implementation of constitutive models is essential for application code teams. A third purpose of a constitutive model test suite is that it provides analysts with example problems that they can look at to understand the behavior of a specific model. Since the choice of a constitutive model, and the properties that are used in that model, have an enormous effect on the results of an

  6. Parametric Sensitivity Tests—European Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell Stack Test Procedures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Araya, Samuel Simon; Andreasen, Søren Juhl; Kær, Søren Knudsen

    2014-01-01

    performed based on test procedures proposed by a European project, Stack-Test. The sensitivity of a Nafion-based low temperature PEMFC stack’s performance to parametric changes was the main objective of the tests. Four crucial parameters for fuel cell operation were chosen; relative humidity, temperature......, pressure, and stoichiometry at varying current density. Furthermore, procedures for polarization curve recording were also tested both in ascending and descending current directions....

  7. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a polyurethane foam decomposition model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HOBBS,MICHAEL L.; ROBINSON,DAVID G.

    2000-03-14

    Sensitivity/uncertainty analyses are not commonly performed on complex, finite-element engineering models because the analyses are time consuming, CPU intensive, nontrivial exercises that can lead to deceptive results. To illustrate these ideas, an analytical sensitivity/uncertainty analysis is used to determine the standard deviation and the primary factors affecting the burn velocity of polyurethane foam exposed to firelike radiative boundary conditions. The complex, finite element model has 25 input parameters that include chemistry, polymer structure, and thermophysical properties. The response variable was selected as the steady-state burn velocity calculated as the derivative of the burn front location versus time. The standard deviation of the burn velocity was determined by taking numerical derivatives of the response variable with respect to each of the 25 input parameters. Since the response variable is also a derivative, the standard deviation is essentially determined from a second derivative that is extremely sensitive to numerical noise. To minimize the numerical noise, 50-micron elements and approximately 1-msec time steps were required to obtain stable uncertainty results. The primary effect variable was shown to be the emissivity of the foam.

  8. Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), with application to hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakovec, O.; Hill, Mary C.; Clark, M.P.; Weerts, A. H.; Teuling, A. J.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a hybrid local-global sensitivity analysis method termed the Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), which is used here to identify important and unimportant parameters and evaluate how model parameter importance changes as parameter values change. DELSA uses derivative-based “local” methods to obtain the distribution of parameter sensitivity across the parameter space, which promotes consideration of sensitivity analysis results in the context of simulated dynamics. This work presents DELSA, discusses how it relates to existing methods, and uses two hydrologic test cases to compare its performance with the popular global, variance-based Sobol' method. The first test case is a simple nonlinear reservoir model with two parameters. The second test case involves five alternative “bucket-style” hydrologic models with up to 14 parameters applied to a medium-sized catchment (200 km2) in the Belgian Ardennes. Results show that in both examples, Sobol' and DELSA identify similar important and unimportant parameters, with DELSA enabling more detailed insight at much lower computational cost. For example, in the real-world problem the time delay in runoff is the most important parameter in all models, but DELSA shows that for about 20% of parameter sets it is not important at all and alternative mechanisms and parameters dominate. Moreover, the time delay was identified as important in regions producing poor model fits, whereas other parameters were identified as more important in regions of the parameter space producing better model fits. The ability to understand how parameter importance varies through parameter space is critical to inform decisions about, for example, additional data collection and model development. The ability to perform such analyses with modest computational requirements provides exciting opportunities to evaluate complicated models as well as many alternative models.

  9. Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), with application to hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakovec, O.; Hill, M. C.; Clark, M. P.; Weerts, A. H.; Teuling, A. J.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a hybrid local-global sensitivity analysis method termed the Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), which is used here to identify important and unimportant parameters and evaluate how model parameter importance changes as parameter values change. DELSA uses derivative-based "local" methods to obtain the distribution of parameter sensitivity across the parameter space, which promotes consideration of sensitivity analysis results in the context of simulated dynamics. This work presents DELSA, discusses how it relates to existing methods, and uses two hydrologic test cases to compare its performance with the popular global, variance-based Sobol' method. The first test case is a simple nonlinear reservoir model with two parameters. The second test case involves five alternative "bucket-style" hydrologic models with up to 14 parameters applied to a medium-sized catchment (200 km2) in the Belgian Ardennes. Results show that in both examples, Sobol' and DELSA identify similar important and unimportant parameters, with DELSA enabling more detailed insight at much lower computational cost. For example, in the real-world problem the time delay in runoff is the most important parameter in all models, but DELSA shows that for about 20% of parameter sets it is not important at all and alternative mechanisms and parameters dominate. Moreover, the time delay was identified as important in regions producing poor model fits, whereas other parameters were identified as more important in regions of the parameter space producing better model fits. The ability to understand how parameter importance varies through parameter space is critical to inform decisions about, for example, additional data collection and model development. The ability to perform such analyses with modest computational requirements provides exciting opportunities to evaluate complicated models as well as many alternative models.

  10. The sensitivity of the bielschowsky head-tilt test in diagnosing acquired bilateral superior oblique paresis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muthusamy, Brinda; Irsch, Kristina; Peggy Chang, Han-Ying; Guyton, David L

    2014-04-01

    To determine the sensitivity of the Bielschowsky head-tilt test and other commonly used criteria in identifying patients with true bilateral superior oblique paresis. A retrospective chart review was performed to identify patients seen between 1978 and 2009 who were diagnosed with acquired bilateral superior oblique paresis. All patients had a confirmed history of head trauma or brain surgery with altered consciousness followed by symptomatic diplopia. Bilateral superior oblique paresis was defined and diagnosed by the above history, including the presence of greater extorsion in downgaze than upgaze on Lancaster red-green testing, a V-pattern strabismus, and bilateral fundus extorsion. We analyzed findings of the Bielschowsky head-tilt test, the Parks 3-step test, and reversal of the hypertropia from straight-ahead gaze to the other 8 diagnostic positions of gaze to determine these tests' sensitivity in identifying true bilateral superior oblique paresis. Twenty-five patients were identified with the diagnosis of true bilateral superior oblique paresis. The Bielschowsky head-tilt test had a 40% sensitivity, the Parks 3-step test had a sensitivity of 24%, and reversal of the hypertropia had a sensitivity of 60% in making the diagnosis of true bilateral superior oblique paresis. What previously has been described as masked bilateral superior oblique paresis simply may be a reflection of inherent poor sensitivity of the Bielschowsky head-tilt test, the Parks 3-step test, and reversal of the hypertropia in diagnosing bilateral superior oblique paresis. Hence, none of these tests should be relied on exclusively to make this diagnosis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Modelling and Testing of Friction in Forging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bay, Niels

    2007-01-01

    Knowledge about friction is still limited in forging. The theoretical models applied presently for process analysis are not satisfactory compared to the advanced and detailed studies possible to carry out by plastic FEM analyses and more refined models have to be based on experimental testing....... The paper presents an overview of tests reported in literature and gives examples on the authors own test results....

  12. Sensitivity in forward modeled hyperspectral reflectance due to phytoplankton groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzo, Ciro; Bassani, Cristiana; Pinardi, Monica; Giardino, Claudia; Bresciani, Mariano

    2016-04-01

    Phytoplankton is an integral part of the ecosystem, affecting trophic dynamics, nutrient cycling, habitat condition, and fisheries resources. The types of phytoplankton and their concentrations are used to describe the status of water and the processes inside of this. This study investigates bio-optical modeling of phytoplankton functional types (PFT) in terms of pigment composition demonstrating the capability of remote sensing to recognize freshwater phytoplankton. In particular, a sensitivity analysis of simulated hyperspectral water reflectance (with band setting of HICO, APEX, EnMAP, PRISMA and Sentinel-3) of productive eutrophic waters of Mantua lakes (Italy) environment is presented. The bio-optical model adopted for simulating the hyperspectral water reflectance takes into account the reflectance dependency on geometric conditions of light field, on inherent optical properties (backscattering and absorption coefficients) and on concentrations of water quality parameters (WQPs). The model works in the 400-750nm wavelength range, while the model parametrization is based on a comprehensive dataset of WQP concentrations and specific inherent optical properties of the study area, collected in field surveys carried out from May to September of 2011 and 2014. The following phytoplankton groups, with their specific absorption coefficients, a*Φi(λ), were used during the simulation: Chlorophyta, Cyanobacteria with phycocyanin, Cyanobacteria and Cryptophytes with phycoerythrin, Diatoms with carotenoids and mixed phytoplankton. The phytoplankton absorption coefficient aΦ(λ) is modelled by multiplying the weighted sum of the PFTs, Σpia*Φi(λ), with the chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a). To highlight the variability of water reflectance due to variation of phytoplankton pigments, the sensitivity analysis was performed by keeping constant the WQPs (i.e., Chl-a=80mg/l, total suspended matter=12.58g/l and yellow substances=0.27m-1). The sensitivity analysis was

  13. Temperature sensitivity of a numerical pollen forecast model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheifinger, Helfried; Meran, Ingrid; Szabo, Barbara; Gallaun, Heinz; Natali, Stefano; Mantovani, Simone

    2016-04-01

    Allergic rhinitis has become a global health problem especially affecting children and adolescence. Timely and reliable warning before an increase of the atmospheric pollen concentration means a substantial support for physicians and allergy suffers. Recently developed numerical pollen forecast models have become means to support the pollen forecast service, which however still require refinement. One of the problem areas concerns the correct timing of the beginning and end of the flowering period of the species under consideration, which is identical with the period of possible pollen emission. Both are governed essentially by the temperature accumulated before the entry of flowering and during flowering. Phenological models are sensitive to a bias of the temperature. A mean bias of -1°C of the input temperature can shift the entry date of a phenological phase for about a week into the future. A bias of such an order of magnitude is still possible in case of numerical weather forecast models. If the assimilation of additional temperature information (e.g. ground measurements as well as satellite-retrieved air / surface temperature fields) is able to reduce such systematic temperature deviations, the precision of the timing of phenological entry dates might be enhanced. With a number of sensitivity experiments the effect of a possible temperature bias on the modelled phenology and the pollen concentration in the atmosphere is determined. The actual bias of the ECMWF IFS 2 m temperature will also be calculated and its effect on the numerical pollen forecast procedure presented.

  14. Relative sensitivity analysis of the predictive properties of sloppy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myasnikova, Ekaterina; Spirov, Alexander

    2018-01-25

    Commonly among the model parameters characterizing complex biological systems are those that do not significantly influence the quality of the fit to experimental data, so-called "sloppy" parameters. The sloppiness can be mathematically expressed through saturating response functions (Hill's, sigmoid) thereby embodying biological mechanisms responsible for the system robustness to external perturbations. However, if a sloppy model is used for the prediction of the system behavior at the altered input (e.g. knock out mutations, natural expression variability), it may demonstrate the poor predictive power due to the ambiguity in the parameter estimates. We introduce a method of the predictive power evaluation under the parameter estimation uncertainty, Relative Sensitivity Analysis. The prediction problem is addressed in the context of gene circuit models describing the dynamics of segmentation gene expression in Drosophila embryo. Gene regulation in these models is introduced by a saturating sigmoid function of the concentrations of the regulatory gene products. We show how our approach can be applied to characterize the essential difference between the sensitivity properties of robust and non-robust solutions and select among the existing solutions those providing the correct system behavior at any reasonable input. In general, the method allows to uncover the sources of incorrect predictions and proposes the way to overcome the estimation uncertainties.

  15. Sensitivity analysis practices: Strategies for model-based inference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saltelli, Andrea [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (Vatican City State, Holy See,) (Italy)]. E-mail: andrea.saltelli@jrc.it; Ratto, Marco [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy); Tarantola, Stefano [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy); Campolongo, Francesca [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy)

    2006-10-15

    Fourteen years after Science's review of sensitivity analysis (SA) methods in 1989 (System analysis at molecular scale, by H. Rabitz) we search Science Online to identify and then review all recent articles having 'sensitivity analysis' as a keyword. In spite of the considerable developments which have taken place in this discipline, of the good practices which have emerged, and of existing guidelines for SA issued on both sides of the Atlantic, we could not find in our review other than very primitive SA tools, based on 'one-factor-at-a-time' (OAT) approaches. In the context of model corroboration or falsification, we demonstrate that this use of OAT methods is illicit and unjustified, unless the model under analysis is proved to be linear. We show that available good practices, such as variance based measures and others, are able to overcome OAT shortcomings and easy to implement. These methods also allow the concept of factors importance to be defined rigorously, thus making the factors importance ranking univocal. We analyse the requirements of SA in the context of modelling, and present best available practices on the basis of an elementary model. We also point the reader to available recipes for a rigorous SA.

  16. Sensitivity analysis practices: Strategies for model-based inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saltelli, Andrea; Ratto, Marco; Tarantola, Stefano; Campolongo, Francesca

    2006-01-01

    Fourteen years after Science's review of sensitivity analysis (SA) methods in 1989 (System analysis at molecular scale, by H. Rabitz) we search Science Online to identify and then review all recent articles having 'sensitivity analysis' as a keyword. In spite of the considerable developments which have taken place in this discipline, of the good practices which have emerged, and of existing guidelines for SA issued on both sides of the Atlantic, we could not find in our review other than very primitive SA tools, based on 'one-factor-at-a-time' (OAT) approaches. In the context of model corroboration or falsification, we demonstrate that this use of OAT methods is illicit and unjustified, unless the model under analysis is proved to be linear. We show that available good practices, such as variance based measures and others, are able to overcome OAT shortcomings and easy to implement. These methods also allow the concept of factors importance to be defined rigorously, thus making the factors importance ranking univocal. We analyse the requirements of SA in the context of modelling, and present best available practices on the basis of an elementary model. We also point the reader to available recipes for a rigorous SA

  17. Sensitivity analysis of numerical model of prestressed concrete containment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bílý, Petr, E-mail: petr.bily@fsv.cvut.cz; Kohoutková, Alena, E-mail: akohout@fsv.cvut.cz

    2015-12-15

    Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • FEM model of prestressed concrete containment with steel liner was created. • Sensitivity analysis of changes in geometry and loads was conducted. • Steel liner and temperature effects are the most important factors. • Creep and shrinkage parameters are essential for the long time analysis. • Prestressing schedule is a key factor in the early stages. - Abstract: Safety is always the main consideration in the design of containment of nuclear power plant. However, efficiency of the design process should be also taken into consideration. Despite the advances in computational abilities in recent years, simplified analyses may be found useful for preliminary scoping or trade studies. In the paper, a study on sensitivity of finite element model of prestressed concrete containment to changes in geometry, loads and other factors is presented. Importance of steel liner, reinforcement, prestressing process, temperature changes, nonlinearity of materials as well as density of finite elements mesh is assessed in the main stages of life cycle of the containment. Although the modeling adjustments have not produced any significant changes in computation time, it was found that in some cases simplified modeling process can lead to significant reduction of work time without degradation of the results.

  18. Efficient stochastic approaches for sensitivity studies of an Eulerian large-scale air pollution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimov, I.; Georgieva, R.; Todorov, V.; Ostromsky, Tz.

    2017-10-01

    Reliability of large-scale mathematical models is an important issue when such models are used to support decision makers. Sensitivity analysis of model outputs to variation or natural uncertainties of model inputs is crucial for improving the reliability of mathematical models. A comprehensive experimental study of Monte Carlo algorithms based on Sobol sequences for multidimensional numerical integration has been done. A comparison with Latin hypercube sampling and a particular quasi-Monte Carlo lattice rule based on generalized Fibonacci numbers has been presented. The algorithms have been successfully applied to compute global Sobol sensitivity measures corresponding to the influence of several input parameters (six chemical reactions rates and four different groups of pollutants) on the concentrations of important air pollutants. The concentration values have been generated by the Unified Danish Eulerian Model. The sensitivity study has been done for the areas of several European cities with different geographical locations. The numerical tests show that the stochastic algorithms under consideration are efficient for multidimensional integration and especially for computing small by value sensitivity indices. It is a crucial element since even small indices may be important to be estimated in order to achieve a more accurate distribution of inputs influence and a more reliable interpretation of the mathematical model results.

  19. Sensor selection of helicopter transmission systems based on physical model and sensitivity analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyu Kehong

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In the helicopter transmission systems, it is important to monitor and track the tooth damage evolution using lots of sensors and detection methods. This paper develops a novel approach for sensor selection based on physical model and sensitivity analysis. Firstly, a physical model of tooth damage and mesh stiffness is built. Secondly, some effective condition indicators (CIs are presented, and the optimal CIs set is selected by comparing their test statistics according to Mann–Kendall test. Afterwards, the selected CIs are used to generate a health indicator (HI through sen slop estimator. Then, the sensors are selected according to the monotonic relevance and sensitivity to the damage levels. Finally, the proposed method is verified by the simulation and experimental data. The results show that the approach can provide a guide for health monitoring of helicopter transmission systems, and it is effective to reduce the test cost and improve the system’s reliability.

  20. Seepage Calibration Model and Seepage Testing Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finsterle, S.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this Model Report is to document the Seepage Calibration Model (SCM). The SCM was developed (1) to establish the conceptual basis for the Seepage Model for Performance Assessment (SMPA), and (2) to derive seepage-relevant, model-related parameters and their distributions for use in the SMPA and seepage abstraction in support of the Total System Performance Assessment for License Application (TSPA-LA). This Model Report has been revised in response to a comprehensive, regulatory-focused evaluation performed by the Regulatory Integration Team [''Technical Work Plan for: Regulatory Integration Evaluation of Analysis and Model Reports Supporting the TSPA-LA'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169653])]. The SCM is intended to be used only within this Model Report for the estimation of seepage-relevant parameters through calibration of the model against seepage-rate data from liquid-release tests performed in several niches along the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) Main Drift and in the Cross-Drift. The SCM does not predict seepage into waste emplacement drifts under thermal or ambient conditions. Seepage predictions for waste emplacement drifts under ambient conditions will be performed with the SMPA [''Seepage Model for PA Including Drift Collapse'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 167652])], which inherits the conceptual basis and model-related parameters from the SCM. Seepage during the thermal period is examined separately in the Thermal Hydrologic (TH) Seepage Model [see ''Drift-Scale Coupled Processes (DST and TH Seepage) Models'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170338])]. The scope of this work is (1) to evaluate seepage rates measured during liquid-release experiments performed in several niches in the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) and in the Cross-Drift, which was excavated for enhanced characterization of the repository block (ECRB); (2) to evaluate air-permeability data measured in boreholes above the niches and the Cross-Drift to obtain the permeability structure for the seepage model

  1. Seepage Calibration Model and Seepage Testing Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S. Finsterle

    2004-09-02

    The purpose of this Model Report is to document the Seepage Calibration Model (SCM). The SCM was developed (1) to establish the conceptual basis for the Seepage Model for Performance Assessment (SMPA), and (2) to derive seepage-relevant, model-related parameters and their distributions for use in the SMPA and seepage abstraction in support of the Total System Performance Assessment for License Application (TSPA-LA). This Model Report has been revised in response to a comprehensive, regulatory-focused evaluation performed by the Regulatory Integration Team [''Technical Work Plan for: Regulatory Integration Evaluation of Analysis and Model Reports Supporting the TSPA-LA'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169653])]. The SCM is intended to be used only within this Model Report for the estimation of seepage-relevant parameters through calibration of the model against seepage-rate data from liquid-release tests performed in several niches along the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) Main Drift and in the Cross-Drift. The SCM does not predict seepage into waste emplacement drifts under thermal or ambient conditions. Seepage predictions for waste emplacement drifts under ambient conditions will be performed with the SMPA [''Seepage Model for PA Including Drift Collapse'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 167652])], which inherits the conceptual basis and model-related parameters from the SCM. Seepage during the thermal period is examined separately in the Thermal Hydrologic (TH) Seepage Model [see ''Drift-Scale Coupled Processes (DST and TH Seepage) Models'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170338])]. The scope of this work is (1) to evaluate seepage rates measured during liquid-release experiments performed in several niches in the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) and in the Cross-Drift, which was excavated for enhanced characterization of the repository block (ECRB); (2) to evaluate air-permeability data measured in boreholes above the niches and the Cross

  2. Evaluating the Hydrologic Sensitivities of Three Land Surface Models to Bound Uncertainties in Runoff Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiao, T.; Nijssen, B.; Stickel, L.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    Hydrologic modeling is often used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on water availability and quality. A common approach in these studies is to calibrate the selected model(s) to reproduce historic stream flows prior to the application of future climate projections. This approach relies on the implicit assumptions that the sensitivities of these models to meteorological fluctuations will remain relatively constant under climate change and that these sensitivities are similar among models if all models are calibrated to the same historic record. However, even if the models are able to capture the historic variability in hydrological variables, differences in model structure and parameter estimation contribute to the uncertainties in projected runoff, which confounds the incorporation of these results into water resource management decision-making. A better understanding of the variability in hydrologic sensitivities between different models can aid in bounding this uncertainty. In this research, we characterized the hydrologic sensitivities of three watershed-scale land surface models through a case study of the Bull Run watershed in Northern Oregon. The Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) were implemented and calibrated individually to historic streamflow using a common set of long-term, gridded forcings. In addition to analyzing model performances for a historic period, we quantified the temperature sensitivity (defined as change in runoff in response to change in temperature) and precipitation elasticity (defined as change in runoff in response to change in precipitation) of these three models via perturbation of the historic climate record using synthetic experiments. By comparing how these three models respond to changes in climate forcings, this research aims to test the assumption of constant and similar hydrologic sensitivities. Our

  3. Estimation of the relative sensitivity of the comparative tuberculin skin test in tuberculous cattle herds subjected to depopulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karolemeas, Katerina; de la Rua-Domenech, Ricardo; Cooper, Roderick; Goodchild, Anthony V; Clifton-Hadley, Richard S; Conlan, Andrew J K; Mitchell, Andrew P; Hewinson, R Glyn; Donnelly, Christl A; Wood, James L N; McKinley, Trevelyan J

    2012-01-01

    Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is one of the most serious economic animal health problems affecting the cattle industry in Great Britain (GB), with incidence in cattle herds increasing since the mid-1980s. The single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin (SICCT) test is the primary screening test in the bTB surveillance and control programme in GB and Ireland. The sensitivity (ability to detect infected cattle) of this test is central to the efficacy of the current testing regime, but most previous studies that have estimated test sensitivity (relative to the number of slaughtered cattle with visible lesions [VL] and/or positive culture results) lacked post-mortem data for SICCT test-negative cattle. The slaughter of entire herds ("whole herd slaughters" or "depopulations") that are infected by bTB are occasionally conducted in GB as a last-resort control measure to resolve intractable bTB herd breakdowns. These provide additional post-mortem data for SICCT test-negative cattle, allowing a rare opportunity to calculate the animal-level sensitivity of the test relative to the total number of SICCT test-positive and negative VL animals identified post-mortem (rSe). In this study, data were analysed from 16 whole herd slaughters (748 SICCT test-positive and 1031 SICCT test-negative cattle) conducted in GB between 1988 and 2010, using a bayesian hierarchical model. The overall rSe estimate of the SICCT test at the severe interpretation was 85% (95% credible interval [CI]: 78-91%), and at standard interpretation was 81% (95% CI: 70-89%). These estimates are more robust than those previously reported in GB due to inclusion of post-mortem data from SICCT test-negative cattle.

  4. Estimation of the relative sensitivity of the comparative tuberculin skin test in tuberculous cattle herds subjected to depopulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katerina Karolemeas

    Full Text Available Bovine tuberculosis (bTB is one of the most serious economic animal health problems affecting the cattle industry in Great Britain (GB, with incidence in cattle herds increasing since the mid-1980s. The single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin (SICCT test is the primary screening test in the bTB surveillance and control programme in GB and Ireland. The sensitivity (ability to detect infected cattle of this test is central to the efficacy of the current testing regime, but most previous studies that have estimated test sensitivity (relative to the number of slaughtered cattle with visible lesions [VL] and/or positive culture results lacked post-mortem data for SICCT test-negative cattle. The slaughter of entire herds ("whole herd slaughters" or "depopulations" that are infected by bTB are occasionally conducted in GB as a last-resort control measure to resolve intractable bTB herd breakdowns. These provide additional post-mortem data for SICCT test-negative cattle, allowing a rare opportunity to calculate the animal-level sensitivity of the test relative to the total number of SICCT test-positive and negative VL animals identified post-mortem (rSe. In this study, data were analysed from 16 whole herd slaughters (748 SICCT test-positive and 1031 SICCT test-negative cattle conducted in GB between 1988 and 2010, using a bayesian hierarchical model. The overall rSe estimate of the SICCT test at the severe interpretation was 85% (95% credible interval [CI]: 78-91%, and at standard interpretation was 81% (95% CI: 70-89%. These estimates are more robust than those previously reported in GB due to inclusion of post-mortem data from SICCT test-negative cattle.

  5. Geochemical Testing And Model Development - Residual Tank Waste Test Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantrell, K.J.; Connelly, M.P.

    2010-01-01

    This Test Plan describes the testing and chemical analyses release rate studies on tank residual samples collected following the retrieval of waste from the tank. This work will provide the data required to develop a contaminant release model for the tank residuals from both sludge and salt cake single-shell tanks. The data are intended for use in the long-term performance assessment and conceptual model development.

  6. GEOCHEMICAL TESTING AND MODEL DEVELOPMENT - RESIDUAL TANK WASTE TEST PLAN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    CANTRELL KJ; CONNELLY MP

    2010-03-09

    This Test Plan describes the testing and chemical analyses release rate studies on tank residual samples collected following the retrieval of waste from the tank. This work will provide the data required to develop a contaminant release model for the tank residuals from both sludge and salt cake single-shell tanks. The data are intended for use in the long-term performance assessment and conceptual model development.

  7. Atomic Action Refinement in Model Based Testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Bijl, H.M.; Rensink, Arend; Tretmans, G.J.

    2007-01-01

    In model based testing (MBT) test cases are derived from a specification of the system that we want to test. In general the specification is more abstract than the implementation. This may result in 1) test cases that are not executable, because their actions are too abstract (the implementation

  8. A model for optimal constrained adaptive testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.; Reese, Lynda M.

    1997-01-01

    A model for constrained computerized adaptive testing is proposed in which the information in the test at the ability estimate is maximized subject to a large variety of possible constraints on the contents of the test. At each item-selection step, a full test is first assembled to have maximum

  9. A model for optimal constrained adaptive testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.; Reese, Lynda M.

    2001-01-01

    A model for constrained computerized adaptive testing is proposed in which the information on the test at the ability estimate is maximized subject to a large variety of possible constraints on the contents of the test. At each item-selection step, a full test is first assembled to have maximum

  10. Traceability in Model-Based Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathew George

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The growing complexities of software and the demand for shorter time to market are two important challenges that face today’s IT industry. These challenges demand the increase of both productivity and quality of software. Model-based testing is a promising technique for meeting these challenges. Traceability modeling is a key issue and challenge in model-based testing. Relationships between the different models will help to navigate from one model to another, and trace back to the respective requirements and the design model when the test fails. In this paper, we present an approach for bridging the gaps between the different models in model-based testing. We propose relation definition markup language (RDML for defining the relationships between models.

  11. Evaluation of Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Environmental Modeling at a Radioactive Waste Management Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockton, T. B.; Black, P. K.; Catlett, K. M.; Tauxe, J. D.

    2002-05-01

    Environmental modeling is an essential component in the evaluation of regulatory compliance of radioactive waste management sites (RWMSs) at the Nevada Test Site in southern Nevada, USA. For those sites that are currently operating, further goals are to support integrated decision analysis for the development of acceptance criteria for future wastes, as well as site maintenance, closure, and monitoring. At these RWMSs, the principal pathways for release of contamination to the environment are upward towards the ground surface rather than downwards towards the deep water table. Biotic processes, such as burrow excavation and plant uptake and turnover, dominate this upward transport. A combined multi-pathway contaminant transport and risk assessment model was constructed using the GoldSim modeling platform. This platform facilitates probabilistic analysis of environmental systems, and is especially well suited for assessments involving radionuclide decay chains. The model employs probabilistic definitions of key parameters governing contaminant transport, with the goals of quantifying cumulative uncertainty in the estimation of performance measures and providing information necessary to perform sensitivity analyses. This modeling differs from previous radiological performance assessments (PAs) in that the modeling parameters are intended to be representative of the current knowledge, and the uncertainty in that knowledge, of parameter values rather than reflective of a conservative assessment approach. While a conservative PA may be sufficient to demonstrate regulatory compliance, a parametrically honest PA can also be used for more general site decision-making. In particular, a parametrically honest probabilistic modeling approach allows both uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be explicitly coupled to the decision framework using a single set of model realizations. For example, sensitivity analysis provides a guide for analyzing the value of collecting more

  12. Increased Sensitization to Mold Allergens Measured by Intradermal Skin Testing following Hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurst, David

    2017-01-01

    Objective. To report on changes in sensitivity to mold allergens determined by changes in intradermal skin testing reactivity, after exposure to two severe hurricanes. Methods. A random, retrospective allergy charts review divided into 2 groups of 100 patients each: Group A, patients tested between 2003 and 2010 prior to hurricanes, and Group B, patients tested in 2014 and 2015 following hurricanes. Reactivity to eighteen molds was determined by intradermal skin testing. Test results, age, and respiratory symptoms were recorded. Chi-square test determined reactivity/sensitivity differences between groups. Results. Posthurricane patients had 34.6 times more positive results (p < 0.0001) at weaker dilutions, all tested molds were found to be more reactive, and 95% had at least one positive test versus only 62% before the hurricanes (p < 0.0001); average mold reactivity was 55% versus 16% while 17% of patients reacted to the entire panel versus none before the hurricanes (p < 0.0001). The posthurricane population was younger (p < 0.001) and included more patients with asthma or lower respiratory symptoms (p < 0.05). Conclusion. Reactivity and sensitization to mold allergens increased compared to patients before the hurricanes. This supports climatologists' hypothesis that environmental changes resulting from hurricanes can be a health risk as reflected in increased allergic sensitivities and symptoms and has significant implications for physicians treating patients from affected areas. PMID:28491100

  13. A new framework for the interpretation of IgE sensitization tests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roberts, G; Ollert, M; Aalberse, R.

    2016-01-01

    tests to make a definitive diagnosis; these are often expensive and potentially associated with severe reactions. The likelihood of clinical allergy can be semi-quantified from an IgE sensitization test results. This relationship varies though according to the patients' age, ethnicity, nature...... of the putative allergic reaction and coexisting clinical diseases such as eczema. The likelihood of clinical allergy can be more precisely estimated from an IgE sensitization test result, by taking into account the patient's presenting features (pretest probability). The presence of each of these patient...

  14. Model parameters estimation and sensitivity by genetic algorithms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marseguerra, Marzio; Zio, Enrico; Podofillini, Luca

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we illustrate the possibility of extracting qualitative information on the importance of the parameters of a model in the course of a Genetic Algorithms (GAs) optimization procedure for the estimation of such parameters. The Genetic Algorithms' search of the optimal solution is performed according to procedures that resemble those of natural selection and genetics: an initial population of alternative solutions evolves within the search space through the four fundamental operations of parent selection, crossover, replacement, and mutation. During the search, the algorithm examines a large amount of solution points which possibly carries relevant information on the underlying model characteristics. A possible utilization of this information amounts to create and update an archive with the set of best solutions found at each generation and then to analyze the evolution of the statistics of the archive along the successive generations. From this analysis one can retrieve information regarding the speed of convergence and stabilization of the different control (decision) variables of the optimization problem. In this work we analyze the evolution strategy followed by a GA in its search for the optimal solution with the aim of extracting information on the importance of the control (decision) variables of the optimization with respect to the sensitivity of the objective function. The study refers to a GA search for optimal estimates of the effective parameters in a lumped nuclear reactor model of literature. The supporting observation is that, as most optimization procedures do, the GA search evolves towards convergence in such a way to stabilize first the most important parameters of the model and later those which influence little the model outputs. In this sense, besides estimating efficiently the parameters values, the optimization approach also allows us to provide a qualitative ranking of their importance in contributing to the model output. The

  15. Tin Whisker Testing and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-11-01

    Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering, University of Maryland CTE Coefficient of Thermal Expansion DAU Defense Acquisition University DI...below 2.0% PCB Printed Circuit Board synonymous with PWB PWB Printed Wiring Board synonymous with PCB PCTC Simulated power cycling thermal cycling ...DoD focused tin whisker risk assessments and whisker growth mechanisms (long term testing, corrosion/oxidation in humidity, and thermal cycling

  16. A computational model that predicts behavioral sensitivity to intracortical microstimulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sungshin; Callier, Thierri; Bensmaia, Sliman J.

    2017-02-01

    Objective. Intracortical microstimulation (ICMS) is a powerful tool to investigate the neural mechanisms of perception and can be used to restore sensation for patients who have lost it. While sensitivity to ICMS has previously been characterized, no systematic framework has been developed to summarize the detectability of individual ICMS pulse trains or the discriminability of pairs of pulse trains. Approach. We develop a simple simulation that describes the responses of a population of neurons to a train of electrical pulses delivered through a microelectrode. We then perform an ideal observer analysis on the simulated population responses to predict the behavioral performance of non-human primates in ICMS detection and discrimination tasks. Main results. Our computational model can predict behavioral performance across a wide range of stimulation conditions with high accuracy (R 2 = 0.97) and generalizes to novel ICMS pulse trains that were not used to fit its parameters. Furthermore, the model provides a theoretical basis for the finding that amplitude discrimination based on ICMS violates Weber’s law. Significance. The model can be used to characterize the sensitivity to ICMS across the range of perceptible and safe stimulation regimes. As such, it will be a useful tool for both neuroscience and neuroprosthetics.

  17. Sensitivity Analysis of a Riparian Vegetation Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Nones

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a sensitivity analysis of two main parameters used in a mathematic model able to evaluate the effects of changing hydrology on the growth of riparian vegetation along rivers and its effects on the cross-section width. Due to a lack of data in existing literature, in a past study the schematization proposed here was applied only to two large rivers, assuming steady conditions for the vegetational carrying capacity and coupling the vegetal model with a 1D description of the river morphology. In this paper, the limitation set by steady conditions is overcome, imposing the vegetational evolution dependent upon the initial plant population and the growth rate, which represents the potential growth of the overall vegetation along the watercourse. The sensitivity analysis shows that, regardless of the initial population density, the growth rate can be considered the main parameter defining the development of riparian vegetation, but it results site-specific effects, with significant differences for large and small rivers. Despite the numerous simplifications adopted and the small database analyzed, the comparison between measured and computed river widths shows a quite good capability of the model in representing the typical interactions between riparian vegetation and water flow occurring along watercourses. After a thorough calibration, the relatively simple structure of the code permits further developments and applications to a wide range of alluvial rivers.

  18. Physiological assessment of sensitivity of noninvasive testing for coronary artery disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simonetti, I.; Rezai, K.; Rossen, J.D.; Winniford, M.D.; Talman, C.L.; Hollenberg, M.; Kirchner, P.T.; Marcus, M.L.

    1991-01-01

    The sensitivity of three noninvasive tests for coronary artery disease was assessed by means of quantitative indexes of disease severity in three different groups of patients. The overall population consisted of 110 subjects with limited coronary artery disease and no myocardial infarction. Planar dipyridamole- 201 Tl scintigraphy was evaluated in 31 patients, computer-assisted exercise treadmill in 28, and high-dose dipyridamole echocardiography testing in 51. Sensitivity was assessed by rigorous gold standards to define disease severity, such as measurement of minimum cross-sectional area and percent area of stenosis, by quantitative computerized coronary angiography (Brown/Dodge method). On the basis of the results of previous studies, the presence of physiologically significant coronary artery disease was indicated by a stenotic minimum cross-sectional area (MCSA) of less than 2.0 mm 2 or a greater than 75% area of stenosis. With MCSA as the gold standard, dipyridamole- 201 Tl scintigraphy, computerized exercise treadmill, and dipyridamole echocardiography testing showed sensitivities of 52%, 54%, and 61%, respectively, in the three different patient cohorts enrolled. With percent area of stenosis as the gold standard, the sensitivity figures obtained for dipyridamole- 201 Tl, computerized exercise treadmill, and dipyridamole echocardiography testing were 64%, 54%, and 69%, respectively. For each of the three tests, sensitivity increased with increasing lesion severity. Sensitivity was also better in patients with left anterior descending coronary (LAD) disease when compared with patients with left circumflex or right coronary artery disease. Results of these studies demonstrate that in patients with limited coronary artery disease none of the tests evaluated is definitely superior in sensitivity

  19. Earth system sensitivity inferred from Pliocene modelling and data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunt, D.J.; Haywood, A.M.; Schmidt, G.A.; Salzmann, U.; Valdes, P.J.; Dowsett, H.J.

    2010-01-01

    Quantifying the equilibrium response of global temperatures to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is one of the cornerstones of climate research. Components of the Earths climate system that vary over long timescales, such as ice sheets and vegetation, could have an important effect on this temperature sensitivity, but have often been neglected. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to simulate the climate of the mid-Pliocene warm period (about three million years ago), and analyse the forcings and feedbacks that contributed to the relatively warm temperatures. Furthermore, we compare our simulation with proxy records of mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature. Taking these lines of evidence together, we estimate that the response of the Earth system to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is 30-50% greater than the response based on those fast-adjusting components of the climate system that are used traditionally to estimate climate sensitivity. We conclude that targets for the long-term stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations aimed at preventing a dangerous human interference with the climate system should take into account this higher sensitivity of the Earth system. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

  20. Sensitivity Analysis of the Bone Fracture Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewandowski, Beth; Myers, Jerry; Sibonga, Jean Diane

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: The probability of bone fracture during and after spaceflight is quantified to aid in mission planning, to determine required astronaut fitness standards and training requirements and to inform countermeasure research and design. Probability is quantified with a probabilistic modeling approach where distributions of model parameter values, instead of single deterministic values, capture the parameter variability within the astronaut population and fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. Because of this uncertainty, the model in its current state cannot discern an effect of countermeasures on fracture probability, for example between use and non-use of bisphosphonates or between spaceflight exercise performed with the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) or on devices prior to installation of ARED on the International Space Station. This is thought to be due to the inability to measure key contributors to bone strength, for example, geometry and volumetric distributions of bone mass, with areal bone mineral density (BMD) measurement techniques. To further the applicability of model, we performed a parameter sensitivity study aimed at identifying those parameter uncertainties that most effect the model forecasts in order to determine what areas of the model needed enhancements for reducing uncertainty. Methods: The bone fracture risk model (BFxRM), originally published in (Nelson et al) is a probabilistic model that can assess the risk of astronaut bone fracture. This is accomplished by utilizing biomechanical models to assess the applied loads; utilizing models of spaceflight BMD loss in at-risk skeletal locations; quantifying bone strength through a relationship between areal BMD and bone failure load; and relating fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load to bone strength, to fracture probability. There are many factors associated with these calculations including

  1. Understanding earth system models: how Global Sensitivity Analysis can help

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

    2017-04-01

    Computer models are an essential element of earth system sciences, underpinning our understanding of systems functioning and influencing the planning and management of socio-economic-environmental systems. Even when these models represent a relatively low number of physical processes and variables, earth system models can exhibit a complicated behaviour because of the high level of interactions between their simulated variables. As the level of these interactions increases, we quickly lose the ability to anticipate and interpret the model's behaviour and hence the opportunity to check whether the model gives the right response for the right reasons. Moreover, even if internally consistent, an earth system model will always produce uncertain predictions because it is often forced by uncertain inputs (due to measurement errors, pre-processing uncertainties, scarcity of measurements, etc.). Lack of transparency about the scope of validity, limitations and the main sources of uncertainty of earth system models can be a strong limitation to their effective use for both scientific and decision-making purposes. Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) is a set of statistical analysis techniques to investigate the complex behaviour of earth system models in a structured, transparent and comprehensive way. In this presentation, we will use a range of examples across earth system sciences (with a focus on hydrology) to demonstrate how GSA is a fundamental element in advancing the construction and use of earth system models, including: verifying the consistency of the model's behaviour with our conceptual understanding of the system functioning; identifying the main sources of output uncertainty so to focus efforts for uncertainty reduction; finding tipping points in forcing inputs that, if crossed, would bring the system to specific conditions we want to avoid.

  2. Speech-in-noise screening tests by internet, part 3: test sensitivity for uncontrolled parameters in domestic usage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leensen, Monique C. J.; Dreschler, Wouter A.

    2013-01-01

    The online speech-in-noise test 'Earcheck' is sensitive for noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL). This study investigates effects of uncontrollable parameters in domestic self-screening, such as presentation level and transducer type, on speech reception thresholds (SRTs) obtained with Earcheck.

  3. Comparison of the sensitivity of typhi dot test with blood culture in typhoid

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rizvi, Q.

    2006-01-01

    To evaluate the sensitivity of Typhi Dot test in comparison to Blood Culture for the diagnosis of Typhoid Fever in our setup. Fifty patients who fulfilled the clinical criteria of having Typhoid Fever. The data of all the patients was documented, and they were submitted to the Typhi Dot and Blood Culture tests, apart from other routine investigations. Out of the total 50 patients, 47(94%) had their Blood Culture positive for Typhoid bacillus, while in 49 (98%) the Typhi Dot test was positive. Two patients which were found positive on Typhi dot test, gave negative results on Blood Culture. One patient with the signs and symptoms of Typhoid Fever was found neither positive on Typhi Dot test nor upon Blood Culture. There was no significant difference between the results of Blood Culture and Typhi Dot test in the diagnosis of Typhoid Fever. However, Typhi Dot has the advantages of being less expensive and quicker in giving results with excellent sensitivity. (author)

  4. A Sensitivity Analysis of fMRI Balloon Model

    KAUST Repository

    Zayane, Chadia

    2015-04-22

    Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) allows the mapping of the brain activation through measurements of the Blood Oxygenation Level Dependent (BOLD) contrast. The characterization of the pathway from the input stimulus to the output BOLD signal requires the selection of an adequate hemodynamic model and the satisfaction of some specific conditions while conducting the experiment and calibrating the model. This paper, focuses on the identifiability of the Balloon hemodynamic model. By identifiability, we mean the ability to estimate accurately the model parameters given the input and the output measurement. Previous studies of the Balloon model have somehow added knowledge either by choosing prior distributions for the parameters, freezing some of them, or looking for the solution as a projection on a natural basis of some vector space. In these studies, the identification was generally assessed using event-related paradigms. This paper justifies the reasons behind the need of adding knowledge, choosing certain paradigms, and completing the few existing identifiability studies through a global sensitivity analysis of the Balloon model in the case of blocked design experiment.

  5. Statistical Tests for Mixed Linear Models

    CERN Document Server

    Khuri, André I; Sinha, Bimal K

    2011-01-01

    An advanced discussion of linear models with mixed or random effects. In recent years a breakthrough has occurred in our ability to draw inferences from exact and optimum tests of variance component models, generating much research activity that relies on linear models with mixed and random effects. This volume covers the most important research of the past decade as well as the latest developments in hypothesis testing. It compiles all currently available results in the area of exact and optimum tests for variance component models and offers the only comprehensive treatment for these models a

  6. An integrated electrochemical device based on immunochromatographic test strip and enzyme labels for sensitive detection of disease-related biomarkers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zou, Zhexiang; Wang, Jun; Wang, Hua; Li, Yao Q.; Lin, Yuehe

    2012-05-30

    A novel electrochemical biosensing device that integrates an immunochromatographic test strip and a screen-printed electrode (SPE) connected to a portable electrochemical analyzer was presented for rapid, sensitive, and quantitative detection of disease-related biomarker in human blood samples. The principle of the sensor is based on sandwich immunoreactions between a biomarker and a pair of its antibodies on the test strip, followed by highly sensitive square-wave voltammetry (SWV) detection. Horseradish peroxidase (HRP) was used as a signal reporter for electrochemical readout. Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) was employed as a model protein biomarker to demonstrate the analytical performance of the sensor in this study. Some critical parameters governing the performance of the sensor were investigated in detail. The sensor was further utilized to detect HBsAg in human plasma with an average recovery of 91.3%. In comparison, a colorimetric immunochromatographic test strip assay (ITSA) was also conducted. The result shows that the SWV detection in the electrochemical sensor is much more sensitive for the quantitative determination of HBsAg than the colorimetric detection, indicating that such a sensor is a promising platform for rapid and sensitive point-of-care testing/screening of disease-related biomarkers in a large population

  7. Assessing contaminant sensitivity of endangered and threatened aquatic species: Part III. Effluent toxicity tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwyer, F.J.; Hardesty, D.K.; Henke, C.E.; Ingersoll, C.G.; Whites, D.W.; Augspurger, T.; Canfield, T.J.; Mount, D.R.; Mayer, F.L.

    2005-01-01

    Toxicity tests using standard effluent test procedures described by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency were conducted with Ceriodaphnia dubia, fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas), and seven threatened and endangered (listed) fish species from four families: (1) Acipenseridae: shortnose sturgeon (Acipenser brevirostrum); (2) Catostomidae; razorback sucker (Xyrauchen texanus); (3) Cyprinidae: bonytail chub (Gila elegans), Cape Fear shiner (Notropis mekistocholas) Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius), and spotfin chub (Cyprinella monacha); and (4) Poecillidae: Gila topminnow (Poeciliopsis occidentalis). We conducted 7-day survival and growth studies with embryo-larval fathead minnows and analogous exposures using the listed species. Survival and reproduction were also determined with C. dubia. Tests were conducted with carbaryl, ammonia-or a simulated effluent complex mixture of carbaryl, copper, 4-nonylphenol, pentachlorophenol and permethrin at equitoxic proportions. In addition, Cape Fear shiners and spotfin chub were tested using diazinon, copper, and chlorine. Toxicity tests were also conducted with field-collected effluents from domestic or industrial facilities. Bonytail chub and razorback suckers were tested with effluents collected in Arizona whereas effluent samples collected from North Carolina were tested with Cape Fear shiner, spotfin chub, and shortnose sturgeon. The fathead minnow 7-day effluent test was often a reliable estimator of toxic effects to the listed fishes. However, in 21 % of the tests, a listed species was more sensitive than fathead minnows. More sensitive species results varied by test so that usually no species was always more or less sensitive than fathead minnows. Only the Gila topminnow was consistently less sensitive than the fathead minnow. Listed fish species were protected 96% of the time when results for both fathead minnows and C. dubia were considered, thus reinforcing the value of standard whole

  8. Results of steel containment vessel model test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luk, V.K.; Ludwigsen, J.S.; Hessheimer, M.F.; Komine, Kuniaki; Matsumoto, Tomoyuki; Costello, J.F.

    1998-05-01

    A series of static overpressurization tests of scale models of nuclear containment structures is being conducted by Sandia National Laboratories for the Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation of Japan and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Two tests are being conducted: (1) a test of a model of a steel containment vessel (SCV) and (2) a test of a model of a prestressed concrete containment vessel (PCCV). This paper summarizes the conduct of the high pressure pneumatic test of the SCV model and the results of that test. Results of this test are summarized and are compared with pretest predictions performed by the sponsoring organizations and others who participated in a blind pretest prediction effort. Questions raised by this comparison are identified and plans for posttest analysis are discussed

  9. Sensitivity Analysis and Parameter Estimation for a Reactive Transport Model of Uranium Bioremediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, P. D.; Yabusaki, S.; Curtis, G. P.; Ye, M.; Fang, Y.

    2011-12-01

    A three-dimensional, variably-saturated flow and multicomponent biogeochemical reactive transport model of uranium bioremediation was used to generate synthetic data . The 3-D model was based on a field experiment at the U.S. Dept. of Energy Rifle Integrated Field Research Challenge site that used acetate biostimulation of indigenous metal reducing bacteria to catalyze the conversion of aqueous uranium in the +6 oxidation state to immobile solid-associated uranium in the +4 oxidation state. A key assumption in past modeling studies at this site was that a comprehensive reaction network could be developed largely through one-dimensional modeling. Sensitivity analyses and parameter estimation were completed for a 1-D reactive transport model abstracted from the 3-D model to test this assumption, to identify parameters with the greatest potential to contribute to model predictive uncertainty, and to evaluate model structure and data limitations. Results showed that sensitivities of key biogeochemical concentrations varied in space and time, that model nonlinearities and/or parameter interactions have a significant impact on calculated sensitivities, and that the complexity of the model's representation of processes affecting Fe(II) in the system may make it difficult to correctly attribute observed Fe(II) behavior to modeled processes. Non-uniformity of the 3-D simulated groundwater flux and averaging of the 3-D synthetic data for use as calibration targets in the 1-D modeling resulted in systematic errors in the 1-D model parameter estimates and outputs. This occurred despite using the same reaction network for 1-D modeling as used in the data-generating 3-D model. Predictive uncertainty of the 1-D model appeared to be significantly underestimated by linear parameter uncertainty estimates.

  10. Linear Logistic Test Modeling with R

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baghaei, Purya; Kubinger, Klaus D.

    2015-01-01

    The present paper gives a general introduction to the linear logistic test model (Fischer, 1973), an extension of the Rasch model with linear constraints on item parameters, along with eRm (an R package to estimate different types of Rasch models; Mair, Hatzinger, & Mair, 2014) functions to estimate the model and interpret its parameters. The…

  11. A new framework for the interpretation of IgE sensitization tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, G; Ollert, M; Aalberse, R; Austin, M; Custovic, A; DunnGalvin, A; Eigenmann, P A; Fassio, F; Grattan, C; Hellings, P; Hourihane, J; Knol, E; Muraro, A; Papadopoulos, N; Santos, A F; Schnadt, S; Tzeli, K

    2016-11-01

    IgE sensitization tests, such as skin prick testing and serum-specific IgE, have been used to diagnose IgE-mediated clinical allergy for many years. Their prime drawback is that they detect sensitization which is only loosely related to clinical allergy. Many patients therefore require provocation tests to make a definitive diagnosis; these are often expensive and potentially associated with severe reactions. The likelihood of clinical allergy can be semi-quantified from an IgE sensitization test results. This relationship varies though according to the patients' age, ethnicity, nature of the putative allergic reaction and coexisting clinical diseases such as eczema. The likelihood of clinical allergy can be more precisely estimated from an IgE sensitization test result, by taking into account the patient's presenting features (pretest probability). The presence of each of these patient-specific factors may mean that a patient is more or less likely to have clinical allergy with a given test result (post-test probability). We present two approaches to include pretest probabilities in the interpretation of results. These approaches are currently limited by a lack of data to allow us to derive pretest probabilities for diverse setting, regions and allergens. Also, cofactors, such as exercise, may be necessary for exposure to an allergen to result in an allergic reaction in specific IgE-positive patients. The diagnosis of IgE-mediated allergy is now being aided by the introduction of allergen component testing which may identify clinically relevant sensitization. Other approaches are in development with basophil activation testing being closest to clinical application. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Particle transport model sensitivity on wave-induced processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staneva, Joanna; Ricker, Marcel; Krüger, Oliver; Breivik, Oyvind; Stanev, Emil; Schrum, Corinna

    2017-04-01

    Different effects of wind waves on the hydrodynamics in the North Sea are investigated using a coupled wave (WAM) and circulation (NEMO) model system. The terms accounting for the wave-current interaction are: the Stokes-Coriolis force, the sea-state dependent momentum and energy flux. The role of the different Stokes drift parameterizations is investigated using a particle-drift model. Those particles can be considered as simple representations of either oil fractions, or fish larvae. In the ocean circulation models the momentum flux from the atmosphere, which is related to the wind speed, is passed directly to the ocean and this is controlled by the drag coefficient. However, in the real ocean, the waves play also the role of a reservoir for momentum and energy because different amounts of the momentum flux from the atmosphere is taken up by the waves. In the coupled model system the momentum transferred into the ocean model is estimated as the fraction of the total flux that goes directly to the currents plus the momentum lost from wave dissipation. Additionally, we demonstrate that the wave-induced Stokes-Coriolis force leads to a deflection of the current. During the extreme events the Stokes velocity is comparable in magnitude to the current velocity. The resulting wave-induced drift is crucial for the transport of particles in the upper ocean. The performed sensitivity analyses demonstrate that the model skill depends on the chosen processes. The results are validated using surface drifters, ADCP, HF radar data and other in-situ measurements in different regions of the North Sea with a focus on the coastal areas. The using of a coupled model system reveals that the newly introduced wave effects are important for the drift-model performance, especially during extremes. Those effects cannot be neglected by search and rescue, oil-spill, transport of biological material, or larva drift modelling.

  13. Field testing of bioenergetic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagy, K.A.

    1985-01-01

    Doubly labeled water provides a direct measure of the rate of carbon dioxide production by free-living animals. With appropriate conversion factors, based on chemical composition of the diet and assimilation efficiency, field metabolic rate (FMR), in units of energy expenditure, and field feeding rate can be estimated. Validation studies indicate that doubly labeled water measurements of energy metabolism are accurate to within 7% in reptiles, birds, and mammals. This paper discusses the use of doubly labeled water to generate empirical models for FMR and food requirements for a variety of animals

  14. Diagnostic Accuracy, Sensitivity, and Specificity of Executive Function Tests in Moderate Traumatic Brain Injury in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adjorlolo, Samuel

    2016-04-27

    The sociocultural differences between Western and sub-Saharan African countries make it imperative to standardize neuropsychological tests in the latter. However, Western-normed tests are frequently administered in sub-Saharan Africa because of challenges hampering standardization efforts. Yet a salient topical issue in the cross-cultural neuropsychology literature relates to the utility of Western-normed neuropsychological tests in minority groups, non-Caucasians, and by extension Ghanaians. Consequently, this study investigates the diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of executive function (EF) tests (The Stroop Test, Trail Making Test, and Controlled Oral Word Association Test), and a Revised Quick Cognitive Screening Test (RQCST) in a sample of 50 patients diagnosed with moderate traumatic brain injury and 50 healthy controls in Ghana. The EF test scores showed good diagnostic accuracy, with area under the curve (AUC) values of the Trail Making Test scores ranging from .746 to .902. With respect to the Stroop Test scores, the AUC values ranged from .793 to .898, while Controlled Oral Word Association Test had AUC value of .787. The RQCST scores discriminated between the groups, with AUC values ranging from .674 to .912. The AUC values of composite EF score and a neuropsychological score created from EF and RQCST scores were .936 and. 942, respectively. Additionally, the Stroop Test, Trail Making Test, EF composite score, and RQCST scores showed good to excellent sensitivities and specificities. In general, this study has shown that commonly used EF tests in Western countries have diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity when administered in Ghanaian samples. The findings and implications of the study are discussed. © The Author(s) 2016.

  15. Screening Test for Detection of Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say Sensitivity to Insecticides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dušanka Inđić

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In 2009, the sensitivity of 15 field populations of Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsadecemlineata Say. - CPB was assessed to chlorpyrifos, cypermethrin, thiamethoxam and fipronil,four insecticides which are mostly used for its control in Serbia. Screening test that allows rapidassessment of sensitivity of overwintered adults to insecticides was performed. Insecticideswere applied at label rates, and two, five and 10 fold higher rates by soaking method (5 sec.Mortality was assessed after 72h. From 15 monitored populations of CPB, two were sensitiveto label rate of chlorpyrifos, one was slightly resistant, 11 were resistant and one populationwas highly resistant. Concerning cypermethrin, two populations were sensitive, two slightlyresistant, five were resistant and six highly resistant. Highly sensitive to thiamethoxam labelrate were 12 populations, while three were sensitive. In the case of fipronil applied at label rate,two populations were highly sensitive, six sensitive, one slightly resistant and six were resistant.The application of insecticides at higher rates (2, 5 and 10 fold, that is justified only in bioassays,provided a rapid insight into sensitivity of field populations of CPB to insecticides.

  16. Sensitivity Study on Aging Elements Using Degradation Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Man-Woong; Lee, Sang-Kyu; Kim, Hyun-Koon; Ryu, Yong-Ho [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Yong Won; Park, Chang Hwan; Lee, Un Chul [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2008-05-15

    To evaluate the safety margin effects for performance degradation of system and components due to ageing for CANDU reactors, it is required to identify the aging elements for systems and components and to develop the degradation model for each element aimed to predict the aging value during operating year adequately. However, it is recognized that the degradation model is not an independent parameter to assess the evaluation of safety margin change due to ageing. For example, the moderator temperature coefficient (MTC) is an important factor of power distribution and is affected by coolant flow rate. Hence all the aging elements relevant with the flow rate at different system or components could be influenced the MCT. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the major elements affecting the safety margin. In this regard, this study investigate the coupled effect to concern the safety margin using a sensitivity analysis is conducted.

  17. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of environmental transport models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Margulies, T.S.; Lancaster, L.E.

    1985-01-01

    An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been made of the CRAC-2 (Calculations of Reactor Accident Consequences) atmospheric transport and deposition models. Robustness and uncertainty aspects of air and ground deposited material and the relative contribution of input and model parameters were systematically studied. The underlying data structures were investigated using a multiway layout of factors over specified ranges generated via a Latin hypercube sampling scheme. The variables selected in our analysis include: weather bin, dry deposition velocity, rain washout coefficient/rain intensity, duration of release, heat content, sigma-z (vertical) plume dispersion parameter, sigma-y (crosswind) plume dispersion parameter, and mixing height. To determine the contributors to the output variability (versus distance from the site) step-wise regression analyses were performed on transformations of the spatial concentration patterns simulated. 27 references, 2 figures, 3 tables

  18. Control strategies and sensitivity analysis of anthroponotic visceral leishmaniasis model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamir, Muhammad; Zaman, Gul; Alshomrani, Ali Saleh

    2017-12-01

    This study proposes a mathematical model of Anthroponotic visceral leishmaniasis epidemic with saturated infection rate and recommends different control strategies to manage the spread of this disease in the community. To do this, first, a model formulation is presented to support these strategies, with quantifications of transmission and intervention parameters. To understand the nature of the initial transmission of the disease, the reproduction number [Formula: see text] is obtained by using the next-generation method. On the basis of sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number [Formula: see text], four different control strategies are proposed for managing disease transmission. For quantification of the prevalence period of the disease, a numerical simulation for each strategy is performed and a detailed summary is presented. Disease-free state is obtained with the help of control strategies. The threshold condition for globally asymptotic stability of the disease-free state is found, and it is ascertained that the state is globally stable. On the basis of sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number, it is shown that the disease can be eradicated by using the proposed strategies.

  19. Increased retest reactivity by both patch and use test with methyldibromoglutaronitrile in sensitized individuals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Charlotte D; Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Menné, Torkil

    2006-01-01

    -exposure by both a patch test challenge and a use test with a liquid soap preserved with MDBGN. MDBGN dermatitis was elicited on the back and arms of sensitized individuals. One month later the previously eczematous areas were challenged with MDBGN. On the back, the test sites were patch-tested with a serial...... dilution of MDBGN and a use test was performed on the arms with an MDBGN-containing soap. A statistically significant increased response was seen on the areas with previous dermatitis on the back. Eight of the nine patients who developed dermatitis on the arms from the MDBGN-containing soap had...

  20. The sensitivity of flowline models of tidewater glaciers to parameter uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. M. Enderlin

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Depth-integrated (1-D flowline models have been widely used to simulate fast-flowing tidewater glaciers and predict change because the continuous grounding line tracking, high horizontal resolution, and physically based calving criterion that are essential to realistic modeling of tidewater glaciers can easily be incorporated into the models while maintaining high computational efficiency. As with all models, the values for parameters describing ice rheology and basal friction must be assumed and/or tuned based on observations. For prognostic studies, these parameters are typically tuned so that the glacier matches observed thickness and speeds at an initial state, to which a perturbation is applied. While it is well know that ice flow models are sensitive to these parameters, the sensitivity of tidewater glacier models has not been systematically investigated. Here we investigate the sensitivity of such flowline models of outlet glacier dynamics to uncertainty in three key parameters that influence a glacier's resistive stress components. We find that, within typical observational uncertainty, similar initial (i.e., steady-state glacier configurations can be produced with substantially different combinations of parameter values, leading to differing transient responses after a perturbation is applied. In cases where the glacier is initially grounded near flotation across a basal over-deepening, as typically observed for rapidly changing glaciers, these differences can be dramatic owing to the threshold of stability imposed by the flotation criterion. The simulated transient response is particularly sensitive to the parameterization of ice rheology: differences in ice temperature of ~ 2 °C can determine whether the glaciers thin to flotation and retreat unstably or remain grounded on a marine shoal. Due to the highly non-linear dependence of tidewater glaciers on model parameters, we recommend that their predictions are accompanied by

  1. Bayesian sensitivity analysis of a 1D vascular model with Gaussian process emulators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melis, Alessandro; Clayton, Richard H; Marzo, Alberto

    2017-12-01

    One-dimensional models of the cardiovascular system can capture the physics of pulse waves but involve many parameters. Since these may vary among individuals, patient-specific models are difficult to construct. Sensitivity analysis can be used to rank model parameters by their effect on outputs and to quantify how uncertainty in parameters influences output uncertainty. This type of analysis is often conducted with a Monte Carlo method, where large numbers of model runs are used to assess input-output relations. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the computational efficiency of variance-based sensitivity analysis of 1D vascular models using Gaussian process emulators, compared to a standard Monte Carlo approach. The methodology was tested on four vascular networks of increasing complexity to analyse its scalability. The computational time needed to perform the sensitivity analysis with an emulator was reduced by the 99.96% compared to a Monte Carlo approach. Despite the reduced computational time, sensitivity indices obtained using the two approaches were comparable. The scalability study showed that the number of mechanistic simulations needed to train a Gaussian process for sensitivity analysis was of the order O(d), rather than O(d×103) needed for Monte Carlo analysis (where d is the number of parameters in the model). The efficiency of this approach, combined with capacity to estimate the impact of uncertain parameters on model outputs, will enable development of patient-specific models of the vascular system, and has the potential to produce results with clinical relevance. © 2017 The Authors International Journal for Numerical Methods in Biomedical Engineering Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. The doubled CO2 climate and the sensitivity of the modeled hydrologic cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rind, D.

    1988-01-01

    Four doubled CO2 experiments with the GISS general circulation model are compared to investigate the consistency of changes in water availability over the United States. The experiments compare the influence of model sensitivity, model resolution, and the sea-surface temperature gradient. The results show that the general mid-latitude drying over land is dependent upon the degree of mid-latitude eddy energy decrease, and thus the degree of high-latitude temperature change amplification. There is a general tendency in the experiments for the northern and western United States to become wetter, while the southern and eastern portions dry. However, there is much variability from run to run, with different regions showing different degrees of sensitivity to the parameters tested. The results for the western United States depend most on model resolution; those for the central United States, on the sea-surface temperature gradient and the degree of mid-latitude ocean warming; and those for the eastern United States, on model sensitivity. The changes in particular seasons depend on changes in other seasons, and will therefore be sensitive to the realism of the ground hydrology parameterization.

  3. Sensitivity analysis of geometric errors in additive manufacturing medical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Jose Miguel; Arrieta, Cristobal; Andia, Marcelo E; Uribe, Sergio; Ramos-Grez, Jorge; Vargas, Alex; Irarrazaval, Pablo; Tejos, Cristian

    2015-03-01

    Additive manufacturing (AM) models are used in medical applications for surgical planning, prosthesis design and teaching. For these applications, the accuracy of the AM models is essential. Unfortunately, this accuracy is compromised due to errors introduced by each of the building steps: image acquisition, segmentation, triangulation, printing and infiltration. However, the contribution of each step to the final error remains unclear. We performed a sensitivity analysis comparing errors obtained from a reference with those obtained modifying parameters of each building step. Our analysis considered global indexes to evaluate the overall error, and local indexes to show how this error is distributed along the surface of the AM models. Our results show that the standard building process tends to overestimate the AM models, i.e. models are larger than the original structures. They also show that the triangulation resolution and the segmentation threshold are critical factors, and that the errors are concentrated at regions with high curvatures. Errors could be reduced choosing better triangulation and printing resolutions, but there is an important need for modifying some of the standard building processes, particularly the segmentation algorithms. Copyright © 2015 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Sensitivity analysis of the terrestrial food chain model FOOD III

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zach, Reto.

    1980-10-01

    As a first step in constructing a terrestrial food chain model suitable for long-term waste management situations, a numerical sensitivity analysis of FOOD III was carried out to identify important model parameters. The analysis involved 42 radionuclides, four pathways, 14 food types, 93 parameters and three percentages of parameter variation. We also investigated the importance of radionuclides, pathways and food types. The analysis involved a simple contamination model to render results from individual pathways comparable. The analysis showed that radionuclides vary greatly in their dose contribution to each of the four pathways, but relative contributions to each pathway are very similar. Man's and animals' drinking water pathways are much more important than the leaf and root pathways. However, this result depends on the contamination model used. All the pathways contain unimportant food types. Considering the number of parameters involved, FOOD III has too many different food types. Many of the parameters of the leaf and root pathway are important. However, this is true for only a few of the parameters of animals' drinking water pathway, and for neither of the two parameters of mans' drinking water pathway. The radiological decay constant increases the variability of these results. The dose factor is consistently the most important variable, and it explains most of the variability of radionuclide doses within pathways. Consideration of the variability of dose factors is important in contemporary as well as long-term waste management assessment models, if realistic estimates are to be made. (auth)

  5. Effects of maternal sensitivity on low birth weight children's academic achievement: a test of differential susceptibility versus diathesis stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaekel, Julia; Pluess, Michael; Belsky, Jay; Wolke, Dieter

    2015-06-01

    Differential Susceptibility Theory (DST) postulates that some children are more affected - for better and for worse - by developmental experiences, including parenting, than others. Low birth weight (LBW, 1,500-2,499 g) may not only be a predictor for neurodevelopmental impairment but also a marker for prenatally programmed susceptibility. The aim was to test if effects of sensitive parenting on LBW and very LBW (VLBW, academic achievement are best explained by a differential susceptibility versus diathesis-stress model of person-X-environment interaction. Nine hundred and twenty-two children ranging from 600 g to 5,140 g birth weight were studied as part of a prospective, geographically defined, longitudinal investigation of neonatal at-risk children in South Germany (Bavarian Longitudinal Study). Sensitive parenting during a structured mother-child interaction task was observed and rated at age 6 years. Academic achievement was assessed with standardized mathematic, reading, and spelling/writing tests at age 8 years. Maternal sensitivity positively predicted the academic achievement of both LBW (n = 283) and VLBW (n = 202) children. Confirmatory-comparative and model-fitting analysis (testing LBW vs. NBW and VLBW vs. NBW) indicated that LBW and VLBW children were more susceptible than NBW to the adverse effects of low-sensitive, but not beneficial effects of high-sensitive parenting. Findings proved more consistent with the diathesis stress than differential-susceptibility model of person-X-environment interaction: LBW and VLBW children's exposure to positive parenting predicted catch-up to their NBW peers, whereas exposure to negative parenting predicted much poorer functioning. © 2014 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  6. Biglan Model Test Based on Institutional Diversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roskens, Ronald W.; Creswell, John W.

    The Biglan model, a theoretical framework for empirically examining the differences among subject areas, classifies according to three dimensions: adherence to common set of paradigms (hard or soft), application orientation (pure or applied), and emphasis on living systems (life or nonlife). Tests of the model are reviewed, and a further test is…

  7. Use of genotoxicity information in the development of integrated testing strategies (ITS) for skin sensitization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mekenyan, Ovanes; Patlewicz, Grace; Dimitrova, Gergana; Kuseva, Chanita; Todorov, Milen; Stoeva, Stoyanka; Kotov, Stefan; Donner, E Maria

    2010-10-18

    Skin sensitization is an end point of concern for various legislation in the EU, including the seventh Amendment to the Cosmetics Directive and Registration Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH). Since animal testing is a last resort for REACH or banned (from 2013 onward) for the Cosmetics Directive, the use of intelligent/integrated testing strategies (ITS) as an efficient means of gathering necessary information from alternative sources (e.g., in vitro, (Q)SARs, etc.) is gaining widespread interest. Previous studies have explored correlations between mutagenicity data and skin sensitization data as a means of exploiting information from surrogate end points. The work here compares the underlying chemical mechanisms for mutagenicity and skin sensitization in an effort to evaluate the role mutagenicity information can play as a predictor of skin sensitization potential. The Tissue Metabolism Simulator (TIMES) hybrid expert system was used to compare chemical mechanisms of both end points since it houses a comprehensive set of established structure-activity relationships for both skin sensitization and mutagenicity. The evaluation demonstrated that there is a great deal of overlap between skin sensitization and mutagenicity structural alerts and their underlying chemical mechanisms. The similarities and differences in chemical mechanisms are discussed in light of available experimental data. A number of new alerts for mutagenicity were also postulated for inclusion into TIMES. The results presented show that mutagenicity information can provide useful insights on skin sensitization potential as part of an ITS and should be considered prior to any in vivo skin sensitization testing being initiated.

  8. [Test and programme sensitivities of screening for colorectal cancer in Reggio Emilia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campari, Cinzia; Sassatelli, Romano; Paterlini, Luisa; Camellini, Lorenzo; Menozzi, Patrizia; Cattani, Antonella

    2011-01-01

    to estimate the sensitivity of the immunochemical test for faecal occult blood (FOBT) and the sensitivity of the colorectal tumour screening programme in the province of Reggio Emilia. retrospective cohort study, including a sample of 80,357 people of both genders, aged 50-69, who underwent FOBT, during the first round of the screening programme in the province of Reggio Emilia, from April 2005 to December 2007. incidence of interval cancer. The proportional incidence method was used to estimate the sensitivity of FOBT and of the screening programme. Data were stratified according to gender, age and year of interval. the overall sensitivity of FOBT was 73.2% (95%IC 63.8-80.7). The sensitivity of FOBT was lower in females (70.5% vs 75.1%), higher in the 50-59 age group (78.6% vs 70.2%) and higher in the colon than rectum (75.1% vs 68.9%). The test had a significantly higher sensitivity in the 1st year of interval than in the 2nd (84.4% vs 60.5%; RR=0.39, 95%IC 0.22-0.70), a difference which was confirmed, also when data were stratified according to gender. The overall sensitivity of the programme is 70.9% (95%IC 61.5-78.5). No statistically significant differences were shown, if data were stratified according to gender, age or site. Again the sensitivity in the 1st year was significantly higher than in the 2nd year of interval (83.2% vs 57.0%; RR=0.41, 95%IC 0.24-0.69). Overall our data confirmed the findings of similar Italian studies, despite subgroup analysis showed some differences in sensitivity in our study.

  9. TESTING GARCH-X TYPE MODELS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Søndergaard; Rahbek, Anders

    2017-01-01

    We present novel theory for testing for reduction of GARCH-X type models with an exogenous (X) covariate to standard GARCH type models. To deal with the problems of potential nuisance parameters on the boundary of the parameter space as well as lack of identification under the null, we exploit...... a noticeable property of specific zero-entries in the inverse information of the GARCH-X type models. Specifically, we consider sequential testing based on two likelihood ratio tests and as demonstrated the structure of the inverse information implies that the proposed test neither depends on whether...

  10. Sensitivity and Reliability of a Specific Test of Stroke Performance in Table Tennis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Mansec, Yann; Dorel, Sylvain; Nordez, Antoine; Jubeau, Marc

    2016-07-01

    To develop a simple, reliable, and sensitive test to measure stroke performance (ball speed and accuracy) in table tennis. Fifty-two players were divided into 3 groups in accordance with their level: expert (EG), advanced (AG), and inexperienced (IG). The test consisted of 45 forehand shots where players were asked to reach 3 targets. The test was performed 2 times (separated by 8 min) during the first session (n = 52) to assess intrasession reliability. A second session (n = 28), at least 3 d later, was performed to test intersession reliability. Both speed and accuracy of the ball were measured to evaluate the absolute sensitivity and reliability of the specific test. This study showed good reliability of the specific test for both ball speed and accuracy of EG and AG (ICC range .42-.96, CV range 2.0-9.0%). However, the reliability is low for IG. Ball speed and accuracy were greater in EG than in the other groups, and both variables were correlated with the level of the players. Results suggest that the specific test appears to be a simple and sensitive procedure to assess stroke performance in table tennis and that this test could be a relevant tool for coaches in table tennis.

  11. Open source software implementation of an integrated testing strategy for skin sensitization potency based on a Bayesian network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirone, Jason R; Smith, Marjolein; Kleinstreuer, Nicole C; Burns, Thomas A; Strickland, Judy; Dancik, Yuri; Morris, Richard; Rinckel, Lori A; Casey, Warren; Jaworska, Joanna S

    2014-01-01

    An open-source implementation of a previously published integrated testing strategy (ITS) for skin sensitization using a Bayesian network has been developed using R, a free and open-source statistical computing language. The ITS model provides probabilistic predictions of skin sensitization potency based on in silico and in vitro information as well as skin penetration characteristics from a published bioavailability model (Kasting et al., 2008). The structure of the Bayesian network was designed to be consistent with the adverse outcome pathway published by the OECD (Jaworska et al., 2011, 2013). In this paper, the previously published data set (Jaworska et al., 2013) is improved by two data corrections and a modified application of the Kasting model. The new data set implemented in the original commercial software package and the new R version produced consistent results. The data and a fully documented version of the code are publicly available (http://ntp.niehs.nih.gov/go/its).

  12. The diagnostic sensitivity of dengue rapid test assays is significantly enhanced by using a combined antigen and antibody testing approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott R Fry

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Serological tests for IgM and IgG are routinely used in clinical laboratories for the rapid diagnosis of dengue and can differentiate between primary and secondary infections. Dengue virus non-structural protein 1 (NS1 has been identified as an early marker for acute dengue, and is typically present between days 1-9 post-onset of illness but following seroconversion it can be difficult to detect in serum. AIMS: To evaluate the performance of a newly developed Panbio® Dengue Early Rapid test for NS1 and determine if it can improve diagnostic sensitivity when used in combination with a commercial IgM/IgG rapid test. METHODOLOGY: The clinical performance of the Dengue Early Rapid was evaluated in a retrospective study in Vietnam with 198 acute laboratory-confirmed positive and 100 negative samples. The performance of the Dengue Early Rapid in combination with the IgM/IgG Rapid test was also evaluated in Malaysia with 263 laboratory-confirmed positive and 30 negative samples. KEY RESULTS: In Vietnam the sensitivity and specificity of the test was 69.2% (95% CI: 62.8% to 75.6% and 96% (95% CI: 92.2% to 99.8 respectively. In Malaysia the performance was similar with 68.9% sensitivity (95% CI: 61.8% to 76.1% and 96.7% specificity (95% CI: 82.8% to 99.9% compared to RT-PCR. Importantly, when the Dengue Early Rapid test was used in combination with the IgM/IgG test the sensitivity increased to 93.0%. When the two tests were compared at each day post-onset of illness there was clear differentiation between the antigen and antibody markers. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights that using dengue NS1 antigen detection in combination with anti-glycoprotein E IgM and IgG serology can significantly increase the sensitivity of acute dengue diagnosis and extends the possible window of detection to include very early acute samples and enhances the clinical utility of rapid immunochromatographic testing for dengue.

  13. Testing Expected Shortfall Models for Derivative Positions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.; Melenberg, B.; Schumacher, J.M.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we test several risk management models for computing expected shortfall for one-period hedge errors of hedged derivatives positions.Contrary to value-at-risk, expected shortfall cannot be tested using the standard binomial test, since we need information of the distribution in the

  14. The Couplex test cases: models and lessons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bourgeat, A. [Lyon-1 Univ., MCS, 69 - Villeurbanne (France); Kern, M. [Institut National de Recherches Agronomiques (INRA), 78 - Le Chesnay (France); Schumacher, S.; Talandier, J. [Agence Nationale pour la Gestion des Dechets Radioactifs (ANDRA), 92 - Chatenay Malabry (France)

    2003-07-01

    The Couplex test cases are a set of numerical test models for nuclear waste deep geological disposal simulation. They are centered around the numerical issues arising in the near and far field transport simulation. They were used in an international contest, and are now becoming a reference in the field. We present the models used in these test cases, and show sample results from the award winning teams. (authors)

  15. The Couplex test cases: models and lessons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourgeat, A.; Kern, M.; Schumacher, S.; Talandier, J.

    2003-01-01

    The Couplex test cases are a set of numerical test models for nuclear waste deep geological disposal simulation. They are centered around the numerical issues arising in the near and far field transport simulation. They were used in an international contest, and are now becoming a reference in the field. We present the models used in these test cases, and show sample results from the award winning teams. (authors)

  16. Breath-holding test in evaluation of peripheral chemoreflex sensitivity in healthy subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trembach, Nikita; Zabolotskikh, Igor

    2017-01-01

    The aim of the study was to determine the feasibility of using a breath-holding test in assessing the sensitivity of the peripheral chemoreflex compared with the single-breath carbon dioxide test. The study involved 48 healthy volunteers between the ages of 18-29 years. The breath-holding test was performed followed by the single-breath carbon dioxide test on the next day. A month after the first tests, these tests were repeated to evaluate their reproducibility The coefficient of variability in the single-breath carbon dioxide test ranged from 0 to 32% with a mean of 10±7%. The mean coefficient of variability of the breath-holding test was 6±4% (0-19%). A significant inverse correlation between the results of the two tests was noted following analysis (r=-0.82, pbreath-holding test after deep inspiration reflects the sensitivity of the peripheral chemoreflex as defined by the single-breath carbon dioxide test in healthy subjects. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Improvement of reflood model in RELAP5 code based on sensitivity analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Dong; Liu, Xiaojing; Yang, Yanhua, E-mail: yanhuay@sjtu.edu.cn

    2016-07-15

    Highlights: • Sensitivity analysis is performed on the reflood model of RELAP5. • The selected influential models are discussed and modified. • The modifications are assessed by FEBA experiment and better predictions are obtained. - Abstract: Reflooding is an important and complex process to the safety of nuclear reactor during loss of coolant accident (LOCA). Accurate prediction of the reflooding behavior is one of the challenge tasks for the current system code development. RELAP5 as a widely used system code has the capability to simulate this process but with limited accuracy, especially for low inlet flow rate reflooding conditions. Through the preliminary assessment with six FEBA (Flooding Experiments with Blocked Arrays) tests, it is observed that the peak cladding temperature (PCT) is generally underestimated and bundle quench is predicted too early compared to the experiment data. In this paper, the improvement of constitutive models related to reflooding is carried out based on single parametric sensitivity analysis. Film boiling heat transfer model and interfacial friction model of dispersed flow are selected as the most influential models to the results of interests. Then studies and discussions are specifically focused on these sensitive models and proper modifications are recommended. These proposed improvements are implemented in RELAP5 code and assessed against FEBA experiment. Better agreement between calculations and measured data for both cladding temperature and quench time is obtained.

  18. Estimating the measuring sensitivity of unipolar and bipolar ECG with lead field method and FDM models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puurtinen, Merja; Viik, Jari; Takano, Noriyuki; Malmivuo, Jaakko; Hyttinen, Jari

    2009-05-01

    New portable electrocardiogram (ECG) measurement systems are emerging into market. Some use nonstandard bipolar electrode montage and sometimes very small interelectrode distances to improve the usability of the system. Modeling could provide a straightforward method to test new electrode systems. The aim of this study was to assess whether modeling the electrodes' measuring sensitivity with lead field method can provide a simple tool for testing a number of new electrode locations. We evaluated whether the actual ECG signal strength can be estimated by lead fields with two realistic 3D finite difference method (FDM) thorax models. We compared the modeling results to clinical body surface potential map (BSPM) data from 236 normal patients and studied 117 unipolar and 42 bipolar leads. In the case of unipolar electrodes the modeled measuring sensitivities correlated well with the clinical data (r=0.86, N=117, p<0.05). In the case of bipolar electrodes the correlation was moderate (r=0.62 between Model 1 and clinical data, r=0.71 between Model 2 and clinical data, N=42 and p<0.05 for both). Based on this we can conclude that lead field analysis based on realistic thorax models provides a good initial prediction for designing new electrode montages and measurement systems.

  19. Respiratory panic disorder subtype and sensitivity to the carbon dioxide challenge test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valença A.M.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to verify the sensitivity to the carbon dioxide (CO2 challenge test of panic disorder (PD patients with respiratory and nonrespiratory subtypes of the disorder. Our hypothesis is that the respiratory subtype is more sensitive to 35% CO2. Twenty-seven PD subjects with or without agoraphobia were classified into respiratory and nonrespiratory subtypes on the basis of the presence of respiratory symptoms during their panic attacks. The tests were carried out in a double-blind manner using two mixtures: 1 35% CO2 and 65% O2, and 2 100% atmospheric compressed air, 20 min apart. The tests were repeated after 2 weeks during which the participants in the study did not receive any psychotropic drugs. At least 15 of 16 (93.7% respiratory PD subtype patients and 5 of 11 (43.4% nonrespiratory PD patients had a panic attack during one of two CO2 challenges (P = 0.009, Fisher exact test. Respiratory PD subtype patients were more sensitive to the CO2 challenge test. There was agreement between the severity of PD measured by the Clinical Global Impression (CGI Scale and the subtype of PD. Higher CGI scores in the respiratory PD subtype could reflect a greater sensitivity to the CO2 challenge due to a greater severity of PD. Carbon dioxide challenges in PD may define PD subtypes and their underlying mechanisms.

  20. Sensitivity and specificity of parallel or serial serological testing for detection of canine Leishmania infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauro Maciel de Arruda

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In Brazil, human and canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL caused byLeishmania infantum has undergone urbanisation since 1980, constituting a public health problem, and serological tests are tools of choice for identifying infected dogs. Until recently, the Brazilian zoonoses control program recommended enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA and indirect immunofluorescence assays (IFA as the screening and confirmatory methods, respectively, for the detection of canine infection. The purpose of this study was to estimate the accuracy of ELISA and IFA in parallel or serial combinations. The reference standard comprised the results of direct visualisation of parasites in histological sections, immunohistochemical test, or isolation of the parasite in culture. Samples from 98 cases and 1,327 noncases were included. Individually, both tests presented sensitivity of 91.8% and 90.8%, and specificity of 83.4 and 53.4%, for the ELISA and IFA, respectively. When tests were used in parallel combination, sensitivity attained 99.2%, while specificity dropped to 44.8%. When used in serial combination (ELISA followed by IFA, decreased sensitivity (83.3% and increased specificity (92.5% were observed. Serial testing approach improved specificity with moderate loss in sensitivity. This strategy could partially fulfill the needs of public health and dog owners for a more accurate diagnosis of CVL.

  1. Factors influencing antibiotic prescribing habits and use of sensitivity testing amongst veterinarians in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Briyne, N.; Atkinson, J.; Pokludová, L.; Borriello, S. P.; Price, S.

    2013-01-01

    The Heads of Medicines Agencies and the Federation of Veterinarians of Europe undertook a survey to gain a better insight into the decision-making process of veterinarians in Europe when deciding which antibiotics to prescribe. The survey was completed by 3004 practitioners from 25 European countries. Analysis was to the level of different types of practitioner (food producing (FP) animals, companion animals, equines) and country for Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Spain, Sweden and the UK. Responses indicate no single information source is universally considered critical, though training, published literature and experience were the most important. Factors recorded which most strongly influenced prescribing behaviour were sensitivity tests, own experience, the risk for antibiotic resistance developing and ease of administration. Most practitioners usually take into account responsible use warnings. Antibiotic sensitivity testing is usually performed where a treatment failure has occurred. Significant differences were observed in the frequency of sensitivity testing at the level of types of practitioners and country. The responses indicate a need to improve sensitivity tests and services, with the availability of rapid and cheaper testing being key factors. PMID:24068699

  2. 78 FR 68076 - Request for Information on Alternative Skin Sensitization Test Methods and Testing Strategies and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-13

    ... scientists to develop and evaluate chemical structure--activity relationship (SAR) models to predict skin... including the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the European Union Reference...

  3. Application of a path sensitizing method on automated generation of test specifications for control software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morimoto, Yuuichi; Fukuda, Mitsuko

    1995-01-01

    An automated generation method for test specifications has been developed for sequential control software in plant control equipment. Sequential control software can be represented as sequential circuits. The control software implemented in a control equipment is designed from these circuit diagrams. In logic tests of VLSI's, path sensitizing methods are widely used to generate test specifications. But the method generates test specifications at a single time only, and can not be directly applied to sequential control software. The basic idea of the proposed method is as follows. Specifications of each logic operator in the diagrams are defined in the software design process. Therefore, test specifications of each operator in the control software can be determined from these specifications, and validity of software can be judged by inspecting all of the operators in the logic circuit diagrams. Candidates for sensitized paths, on which test data for each operator propagates, can be generated by the path sensitizing method. To confirm feasibility of the method, it was experimentally applied to control software in digital control equipment. The program could generate test specifications exactly, and feasibility of the method was confirmed. (orig.) (3 refs., 7 figs.)

  4. Deformation modeling and the strain transient dip test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, W.B.; Rohde, R.W.; Swearengen, J.C.

    1980-01-01

    Recent efforts in material deformation modeling reveal a trend toward unifying creep and plasticity with a single rate-dependent formulation. While such models can describe actual material deformation, most require a number of different experiments to generate model parameter information. Recently, however, a new model has been proposed in which most of the requisite constants may be found by examining creep transients brought about through abrupt changes in creep stress (strain transient dip test). The critical measurement in this test is the absence of a resolvable creep rate after a stress drop. As a consequence, the result is extraordinarily sensitive to strain resolution as well as machine mechanical response. This paper presents the design of a machine in which these spurious effects have been minimized and discusses the nature of the strain transient dip test using the example of aluminum. It is concluded that the strain transient dip test is not useful as the primary test for verifying any micromechanical model of deformation. Nevertheless, if a model can be developed which is verifiable by other experimentts, data from a dip test machine may be used to generate model parameters

  5. Test-driven modeling of embedded systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munck, Allan; Madsen, Jan

    2015-01-01

    To benefit maximally from model-based systems engineering (MBSE) trustworthy high quality models are required. From the software disciplines it is known that test-driven development (TDD) can significantly increase the quality of the products. Using a test-driven approach with MBSE may have...... a similar positive effect on the quality of the system models and the resulting products and may therefore be desirable. To define a test-driven model-based systems engineering (TD-MBSE) approach, we must define this approach for numerous sub disciplines such as modeling of requirements, use cases......, scenarios, behavior, architecture, etc. In this paper we present a method that utilizes the formalism of timed automatons with formal and statistical model checking techniques to apply TD-MBSE to the modeling of system architecture and behavior. The results obtained from applying it to an industrial case...

  6. Sensitivity of the STAT-VIEW rapid self-test and implications for use during acute HIV infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boukli, Narjis; Boyd, Anders; Wendremaire, Noémie; Girard, Pierre-Marie; Bottero, Julie; Morand-Joubert, Laurence

    2017-08-23

    HIV testing is an important step towards diminishing incident infections. Rapid self-tests whose use is becoming more common in France could help increase access to testing, yet could fail to diagnose HIV during acute HIV infection (AHI). The aim of the present study was to evaluate HIV-detection sensitivity of a commonly used rapid self-test (STAT-VIEW HIV1/2), compared with another point-of-care rapid test (INSTI), among patients presenting with AHI. Individuals tested at Saint-Antoine Hospital (Paris, France) with negative or indeterminate western blot (WB) results and detectable HIV-RNA were included. Rapid tests were performed retrospectively on stored serum. Patients with and without reactive rapid tests were compared, while probability of having a reactive test was modelled across infection duration using logistic regression. Of the 40 patients with AHI, 23 (57.5%) had a reactive STAT-VIEW rapid test. Patients with non-reactive versus reactive tests had a significantly shorter median time since infection (p=0.01), time since onset of symptoms (p=0.009), higher proportion with Fiebig stage III versus IV (p=0.003), negative WB results (p=0.007), higher HIV-RNA levels (p=0.001) and lower CD4+ and CD8+ cell count (p=0.03, prapid self-test when performed on serum samples. Considering that detection sensitivity increased substantially over infection time, individuals should not rely on a negative result to accurately exclude HIV infection within at least 5 weeks of potential HIV exposure. Notwithstanding strong recommendations against rapid test use during AHI, some utility in detecting HIV is observed 5-12 weeks after transmission. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  7. Hydraulic Model Tests on Modified Wave Dragon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Tue; Lynggaard, Jakob

    A floating model of the Wave Dragon (WD) was built in autumn 1998 by the Danish Maritime Institute in scale 1:50, see Sørensen and Friis-Madsen (1999) for reference. This model was subjected to a series of model tests and subsequent modifications at Aalborg University and in the following this mo...

  8. Model tests for prestressed concrete pressure vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoever, R.

    1975-01-01

    Investigations with models of reactor pressure vessels are used to check results of three dimensional calculation methods and to predict the behaviour of the prototype. Model tests with 1:50 elastic pressure vessel models and with a 1:5 prestressed concrete pressure vessel are described and experimental results are presented. (orig.) [de

  9. Sensitivity and specificity of the AdenoPlus test for diagnosing adenoviral conjunctivitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sambursky, Robert; Trattler, William; Tauber, Shachar; Starr, Christopher; Friedberg, Murray; Boland, Thomas; McDonald, Marguerite; DellaVecchia, Michael; Luchs, Jodi

    2013-01-01

    To compare the clinical sensitivity and specificity of the AdenoPlus test with those of both viral cell culture (CC) with confirmatory immunofluorescence assay (IFA) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) at detecting the presence of adenovirus in tear fluid. A prospective, sequential, masked, multicenter clinical trial enrolled 128 patients presenting with a clinical diagnosis of acute viral conjunctivitis from a combination of 8 private ophthalmology practices and academic centers. Patients were tested with AdenoPlus, CC-IFA, and PCR to detect the presence of adenovirus. The sensitivity and specificity of AdenoPlus were assessed for identifying cases of adenoviral conjunctivitis. Of the 128 patients enrolled, 36 patients' results were found to be positive by either CC-IFA or PCR and 29 patients' results were found to be positive by both CC-IFA and PCR. When compared only with CC-IFA, AdenoPlus showed a sensitivity of 90% (28/31) and specificity of 96% (93/97). When compared only with PCR, AdenoPlus showed a sensitivity of 85% (29/34) and specificity of 98% (89/91). When compared with both CC-IFA and PCR, AdenoPlus showed a sensitivity of 93% (27/29) and specificity of 98% (88/90). When compared with PCR, CC-IFA showed a sensitivity of 85% (29/34) and specificity of 99% (90/91). AdenoPlus is sensitive and specific at detecting adenoviral conjunctivitis. An accurate and rapid in-office test can prevent the misdiagnosis of adenoviral conjunctivitis that leads to the spread of disease, unnecessary antibiotic use, and increased health care costs. Additionally, AdenoPlus may help a clinician make a more informed treatment decision regarding the use of novel therapeutics. clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00921895.

  10. BIS, BAS, and response conflict: Testing predictions of the revised reinforcement sensitivity theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkman, Elliot T; Lieberman, Matthew D; Gable, Shelly L

    2009-01-01

    Gray's (1970) reinforcement sensitivity theory (RST) was recently updated (Gray & McNaughton, 2000), but the changes have not received extensive empirical validation. The study tests three novel predictions of the revised RST. First, the behavioral activation system (BAS) is expected to be sensitive to both conditioned and unconditioned incentives. Second, the behavioral inhibition system (BIS) is expected to be sensitive to conflicting incentives such as between unconditioned and conditioned stimuli, and not to avoidance responses or aversive stimuli alone. Third, during approach-avoidance conflicts only, BAS is expected to moderate BIS responses to conflict such that individuals with high BAS show the strongest effect of BIS. In order to test these hypotheses, we developed a novel incentive task that crosses approach/avoidance conditioned responses to appetitive/aversive unconditioned stimuli. Conflict between unconditioned and conditioned stimuli occurred on the approach-aversive and avoid-appetitive trials. Results confirm the predictions and provide support for the revised RST.

  11. Modeling the Sensitivity of Field Surveys for Detection of Environmental DNA (eDNA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Martin T; Lance, Richard F

    2015-01-01

    The environmental DNA (eDNA) method is the practice of collecting environmental samples and analyzing them for the presence of a genetic marker specific to a target species. Little is known about the sensitivity of the eDNA method. Sensitivity is the probability that the target marker will be detected if it is present in the water body. Methods and tools are needed to assess the sensitivity of sampling protocols, design eDNA surveys, and interpret survey results. In this study, the sensitivity of the eDNA method is modeled as a function of ambient target marker concentration. The model accounts for five steps of sample collection and analysis, including: 1) collection of a filtered water sample from the source; 2) extraction of DNA from the filter and isolation in a purified elution; 3) removal of aliquots from the elution for use in the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay; 4) PCR; and 5) genetic sequencing. The model is applicable to any target species. For demonstration purposes, the model is parameterized for bighead carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) and silver carp (H. molitrix) assuming sampling protocols used in the Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS). Simulation results show that eDNA surveys have a high false negative rate at low concentrations of the genetic marker. This is attributed to processing of water samples and division of the extraction elution in preparation for the PCR assay. Increases in field survey sensitivity can be achieved by increasing sample volume, sample number, and PCR replicates. Increasing sample volume yields the greatest increase in sensitivity. It is recommended that investigators estimate and communicate the sensitivity of eDNA surveys to help facilitate interpretation of eDNA survey results. In the absence of such information, it is difficult to evaluate the results of surveys in which no water samples test positive for the target marker. It is also recommended that invasive species managers articulate concentration

  12. Is structural sensitivity a problem of oversimplified biological models? Insights from nested Dynamic Energy Budget models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldebert, Clement; Kooi, Bob W; Nerini, David; Poggiale, Jean-Christophe

    2018-03-14

    Many current issues in ecology require predictions made by mathematical models, which are built on somewhat arbitrary choices. Their consequences are quantified by sensitivity analysis to quantify how changes in model parameters propagate into an uncertainty in model predictions. An extension called structural sensitivity analysis deals with changes in the mathematical description of complex processes like predation. Such processes are described at the population scale by a specific mathematical function taken among similar ones, a choice that can strongly drive model predictions. However, it has only been studied in simple theoretical models. Here, we ask whether structural sensitivity is a problem of oversimplified models. We found in predator-prey models describing chemostat experiments that these models are less structurally sensitive to the choice of a specific functional response if they include mass balance resource dynamics and individual maintenance. Neglecting these processes in an ecological model (for instance by using the well-known logistic growth equation) is not only an inappropriate description of the ecological system, but also a source of more uncertain predictions. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. In Vitro Drug Sensitivity Tests to Predict Molecular Target Drug Responses in Surgically Resected Lung Cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryohei Miyazaki

    Full Text Available Epidermal growth factor receptor-tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs and anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK inhibitors have dramatically changed the strategy of medical treatment of lung cancer. Patients should be screened for the presence of the EGFR mutation or echinoderm microtubule-associated protein-like 4 (EML4-ALK fusion gene prior to chemotherapy to predict their clinical response. The succinate dehydrogenase inhibition (SDI test and collagen gel droplet embedded culture drug sensitivity test (CD-DST are established in vitro drug sensitivity tests, which may predict the sensitivity of patients to cytotoxic anticancer drugs. We applied in vitro drug sensitivity tests for cyclopedic prediction of clinical responses to different molecular targeting drugs.The growth inhibitory effects of erlotinib and crizotinib were confirmed for lung cancer cell lines using SDI and CD-DST. The sensitivity of 35 cases of surgically resected lung cancer to erlotinib was examined using SDI or CD-DST, and compared with EGFR mutation status.HCC827 (Exon19: E746-A750 del and H3122 (EML4-ALK cells were inhibited by lower concentrations of erlotinib and crizotinib, respectively than A549, H460, and H1975 (L858R+T790M cells were. The viability of the surgically resected lung cancer was 60.0 ± 9.8 and 86.8 ± 13.9% in EGFR-mutants vs. wild types in the SDI (p = 0.0003. The cell viability was 33.5 ± 21.2 and 79.0 ± 18.6% in EGFR mutants vs. wild-type cases (p = 0.026 in CD-DST.In vitro drug sensitivity evaluated by either SDI or CD-DST correlated with EGFR gene status. Therefore, SDI and CD-DST may be useful predictors of potential clinical responses to the molecular anticancer drugs, cyclopedically.

  14. Modeling high-efficiency quantum dot sensitized solar cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Pedro, Victoria; Xu, Xueqing; Mora-Seró, Iván; Bisquert, Juan

    2010-10-26

    With energy conversion efficiencies in continuous growth, quantum dot sensitized solar cells (QDSCs) are currently under an increasing interest, but there is an absence of a complete model for these devices. Here, we compile the latest developments in this kind of cells in order to attain high efficiency QDSCs, modeling the performance. CdSe QDs have been grown directly on a TiO(2) surface by successive ionic layer adsorption and reaction to ensure high QD loading. ZnS coating and previous growth of CdS were analyzed. Polysulfide electrolyte and Cu(2)S counterelectrodes were used to provide higher photocurrents and fill factors, FF. Incident photon-to-current efficiency peaks as high as 82%, under full 1 sun illumination, were obtained, which practically overcomes the photocurrent limitation commonly observed in QDSCs. High power conversion efficiency of up to 3.84% under full 1 sun illumination (V(oc) = 0.538 V, j(sc) = 13.9 mA/cm(2), FF = 0.51) and the characterization and modeling carried out indicate that recombination has to be overcome for further improvement of QDSC.

  15. Rapid, high sensitivity, point-of-care test for cardiac troponin based on optomagnetic biosensor

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dittmer, W.U.; Evers, T.H.; Hardeman, W.M.; Huijnen-Keur, W.M.; Kamps, R.; De Kievit, P.; Neijzen, J.H.M.; Sijbers, M.J.J.; Nieuwenhuis, J.H.; Hefti, M.H.; Dekkers, D.; Martens, M.

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We present a handheld integrated device based on a novel magnetic-optical technology for the sensitive detection of cardiactroponin I, a biomarker for the positive diagnosis of myocardial infarct, in a finger-prick blood sample. The test can be performed with a turn-around time of 5

  16. Sensitivity of fluvial sediment source apportionment to mixing model assumptions: A Bayesian model comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Richard J; Krueger, Tobias; Hiscock, Kevin M; Rawlins, Barry G

    2014-11-01

    Mixing models have become increasingly common tools for apportioning fluvial sediment load to various sediment sources across catchments using a wide variety of Bayesian and frequentist modeling approaches. In this study, we demonstrate how different model setups can impact upon resulting source apportionment estimates in a Bayesian framework via a one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) sensitivity analysis. We formulate 13 versions of a mixing model, each with different error assumptions and model structural choices, and apply them to sediment geochemistry data from the River Blackwater, Norfolk, UK, to apportion suspended particulate matter (SPM) contributions from three sources (arable topsoils, road verges, and subsurface material) under base flow conditions between August 2012 and August 2013. Whilst all 13 models estimate subsurface sources to be the largest contributor of SPM (median ∼76%), comparison of apportionment estimates reveal varying degrees of sensitivity to changing priors, inclusion of covariance terms, incorporation of time-variant distributions, and methods of proportion characterization. We also demonstrate differences in apportionment results between a full and an empirical Bayesian setup, and between a Bayesian and a frequentist optimization approach. This OFAT sensitivity analysis reveals that mixing model structural choices and error assumptions can significantly impact upon sediment source apportionment results, with estimated median contributions in this study varying by up to 21% between model versions. Users of mixing models are therefore strongly advised to carefully consider and justify their choice of model structure prior to conducting sediment source apportionment investigations. An OFAT sensitivity analysis of sediment fingerprinting mixing models is conductedBayesian models display high sensitivity to error assumptions and structural choicesSource apportionment results differ between Bayesian and frequentist approaches.

  17. Sensitivity of modeled ozone concentrations to uncertainties in biogenic emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roselle, S.J.

    1992-06-01

    The study examines the sensitivity of regional ozone (O3) modeling to uncertainties in biogenic emissions estimates. The United States Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Regional Oxidant Model (ROM) was used to simulate the photochemistry of the northeastern United States for the period July 2-17, 1988. An operational model evaluation showed that ROM had a tendency to underpredict O3 when observed concentrations were above 70-80 ppb and to overpredict O3 when observed values were below this level. On average, the model underpredicted daily maximum O3 by 14 ppb. Spatial patterns of O3, however, were reproduced favorably by the model. Several simulations were performed to analyze the effects of uncertainties in biogenic emissions on predicted O3 and to study the effectiveness of two strategies of controlling anthropogenic emissions for reducing high O3 concentrations. Biogenic hydrocarbon emissions were adjusted by a factor of 3 to account for the existing range of uncertainty in these emissions. The impact of biogenic emission uncertainties on O3 predictions depended upon the availability of NOx. In some extremely NOx-limited areas, increasing the amount of biogenic emissions decreased O3 concentrations. Two control strategies were compared in the simulations: (1) reduced anthropogenic hydrocarbon emissions, and (2) reduced anthropogenic hydrocarbon and NOx emissions. The simulations showed that hydrocarbon emission controls were more beneficial to the New York City area, but that combined NOx and hydrocarbon controls were more beneficial to other areas of the Northeast. Hydrocarbon controls were more effective as biogenic hydrocarbon emissions were reduced, whereas combined NOx and hydrocarbon controls were more effective as biogenic hydrocarbon emissions were increased

  18. Model-based testing for embedded systems

    CERN Document Server

    Zander, Justyna; Mosterman, Pieter J

    2011-01-01

    What the experts have to say about Model-Based Testing for Embedded Systems: "This book is exactly what is needed at the exact right time in this fast-growing area. From its beginnings over 10 years ago of deriving tests from UML statecharts, model-based testing has matured into a topic with both breadth and depth. Testing embedded systems is a natural application of MBT, and this book hits the nail exactly on the head. Numerous topics are presented clearly, thoroughly, and concisely in this cutting-edge book. The authors are world-class leading experts in this area and teach us well-used

  19. A simple parametric model selection test

    OpenAIRE

    Susanne M. Schennach; Daniel Wilhelm

    2014-01-01

    We propose a simple model selection test for choosing among two parametric likelihoods which can be applied in the most general setting without any assumptions on the relation between the candidate models and the true distribution. That is, both, one or neither is allowed to be correctly speci fied or misspeci fied, they may be nested, non-nested, strictly non-nested or overlapping. Unlike in previous testing approaches, no pre-testing is needed, since in each case, the same test statistic to...

  20. Evaluation of Five Tests for Sensitivity to Functional Deficits following Cervical or Thoracic Dorsal Column Transection in the Rat.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nitish D Fagoe

    Full Text Available The dorsal column lesion model of spinal cord injury targets sensory fibres which originate from the dorsal root ganglia and ascend in the dorsal funiculus. It has the advantages that fibres can be specifically traced from the sciatic nerve, verifiably complete lesions can be performed of the labelled fibres, and it can be used to study sprouting in the central nervous system from the conditioning lesion effect. However, functional deficits from this type of lesion are mild, making assessment of experimental treatment-induced functional recovery difficult. Here, five functional tests were compared for their sensitivity to functional deficits, and hence their suitability to reliably measure recovery of function after dorsal column injury. We assessed the tape removal test, the rope crossing test, CatWalk gait analysis, and the horizontal ladder, and introduce a new test, the inclined rolling ladder. Animals with dorsal column injuries at C4 or T7 level were compared to sham-operated animals for a duration of eight weeks. As well as comparing groups at individual timepoints we also compared the longitudinal data over the whole time course with linear mixed models (LMMs, and for tests where steps are scored as success/error, using generalized LMMs for binomial data. Although, generally, function recovered to sham levels within 2-6 weeks, in most tests we were able to detect significant deficits with whole time-course comparisons. On the horizontal ladder deficits were detected until 5-6 weeks. With the new inclined rolling ladder functional deficits were somewhat more consistent over the testing period and appeared to last for 6-7 weeks. Of the CatWalk parameters base of support was sensitive to cervical and thoracic lesions while hind-paw print-width was affected by cervical lesion only. The inclined rolling ladder test in combination with the horizontal ladder and the CatWalk may prove useful to monitor functional recovery after experimental

  1. The Dynamic Anaerobic Reactor & Integrated Energy System (DARIES) model: model development, validation, and sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brouwer, A F; Grimberg, S J; Powers, S E

    2012-12-01

    The Dynamic Anaerobic Reactor & Integrated Energy System (DARIES) model has been developed as a biogas and electricity production model of a dairy farm anaerobic digester system. DARIES, which incorporates the Anaerobic Digester Model No. 1 (ADM1) and simulations of both combined heat and power (CHP) and digester heating systems, may be run in either completely mixed or plug flow reactor configurations. DARIES biogas predictions were shown to be statistically coincident with measured data from eighteen full-scale dairy operations in the northeastern United States. DARIES biogas predictions were more accurate than predictions made by the U.S. AgSTAR model FarmWare 3.4. DARIES electricity production predictions were verified against data collected by the NYSERDA DG/CHP Integrated Data System. Preliminary sensitivity analysis demonstrated that DARIES output was most sensitive to influent flow rate, chemical oxygen demand (COD), and biodegradability, and somewhat sensitive to hydraulic retention time and digester temperature.

  2. An efficient computational method for global sensitivity analysis and its application to tree growth modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Qiong-Li; Cournède, Paul-Henry; Mathieu, Amélie

    2012-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis has a key role to play in the design and parameterisation of functional–structural plant growth models which combine the description of plant structural development (organogenesis and geometry) and functional growth (biomass accumulation and allocation). We are particularly interested in this study in Sobol's method which decomposes the variance of the output of interest into terms due to individual parameters but also to interactions between parameters. Such information is crucial for systems with potentially high levels of non-linearity and interactions between processes, like plant growth. However, the computation of Sobol's indices relies on Monte Carlo sampling and re-sampling, whose costs can be very high, especially when model evaluation is also expensive, as for tree models. In this paper, we thus propose a new method to compute Sobol's indices inspired by Homma–Saltelli, which improves slightly their use of model evaluations, and then derive for this generic type of computational methods an estimator of the error estimation of sensitivity indices with respect to the sampling size. It allows the detailed control of the balance between accuracy and computing time. Numerical tests on a simple non-linear model are convincing and the method is finally applied to a functional–structural model of tree growth, GreenLab, whose particularity is the strong level of interaction between plant functioning and organogenesis. - Highlights: ► We study global sensitivity analysis in the context of functional–structural plant modelling. ► A new estimator based on Homma–Saltelli method is proposed to compute Sobol indices, based on a more balanced re-sampling strategy. ► The estimation accuracy of sensitivity indices for a class of Sobol's estimators can be controlled by error analysis. ► The proposed algorithm is implemented efficiently to compute Sobol indices for a complex tree growth model.

  3. Modelling sensitivity and uncertainty in a LCA model for waste management systems - EASETECH

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgaard, Anders; Clavreul, Julie; Baumeister, Hubert

    2013-01-01

    In the new model, EASETECH, developed for LCA modelling of waste management systems, a general approach for sensitivity and uncertainty assessment for waste management studies has been implemented. First general contribution analysis is done through a regular interpretation of inventory and impact...

  4. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a 1-D cold region lake model for land-surface schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero, José-Luis; Pernica, Patricia; Wheater, Howard; Mackay, Murray; Spence, Chris

    2017-12-01

    Lakes might be sentinels of climate change, but the uncertainty in their main feedback to the atmosphere - heat-exchange fluxes - is often not considered within climate models. Additionally, these fluxes are seldom measured, hindering critical evaluation of model output. Analysis of the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM), a one-dimensional integral lake model, was performed to assess its ability to reproduce diurnal and seasonal variations in heat fluxes and the sensitivity of simulated fluxes to changes in model parameters, i.e., turbulent transport parameters and the light extinction coefficient (Kd). A C++ open-source software package, Problem Solving environment for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration (PSUADE), was used to perform sensitivity analysis (SA) and identify the parameters that dominate model behavior. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) was applied to quantify the fluxes' uncertainty, comparing daily-averaged eddy-covariance observations to the output of CSLM. Seven qualitative and two quantitative SA methods were tested, and the posterior likelihoods of the modeled parameters, obtained from the GLUE analysis, were used to determine the dominant parameters and the uncertainty in the modeled fluxes. Despite the ubiquity of the equifinality issue - different parameter-value combinations yielding equivalent results - the answer to the question was unequivocal: Kd, a measure of how much light penetrates the lake, dominates sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the uncertainty in their estimates is strongly related to the accuracy with which Kd is determined. This is important since accurate and continuous measurements of Kd could reduce modeling uncertainty.

  5. An individual reproduction model sensitive to milk yield and body condition in Holstein dairy cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brun-Lafleur, L; Cutullic, E; Faverdin, P; Delaby, L; Disenhaus, C

    2013-08-01

    To simulate the consequences of management in dairy herds, the use of individual-based herd models is very useful and has become common. Reproduction is a key driver of milk production and herd dynamics, whose influence has been magnified by the decrease in reproductive performance over the last decades. Moreover, feeding management influences milk yield (MY) and body reserves, which in turn influence reproductive performance. Therefore, our objective was to build an up-to-date animal reproduction model sensitive to both MY and body condition score (BCS). A dynamic and stochastic individual reproduction model was built mainly from data of a single recent long-term experiment. This model covers the whole reproductive process and is composed of a succession of discrete stochastic events, mainly calving, ovulations, conception and embryonic loss. Each reproductive step is sensitive to MY or BCS levels or changes. The model takes into account recent evolutions of reproductive performance, particularly concerning calving-to-first ovulation interval, cyclicity (normal cycle length, prevalence of prolonged luteal phase), oestrus expression and pregnancy (conception, early and late embryonic loss). A sensitivity analysis of the model to MY and BCS at calving was performed. The simulated performance was compared with observed data from the database used to build the model and from the bibliography to validate the model. Despite comprising a whole series of reproductive steps, the model made it possible to simulate realistic global reproduction outputs. It was able to well simulate the overall reproductive performance observed in farms in terms of both success rate (recalving rate) and reproduction delays (calving interval). This model has the purpose to be integrated in herd simulation models to usefully test the impact of management strategies on herd reproductive performance, and thus on calving patterns and culling rates.

  6. Single-well tracer push-pull test sensitivity w. r. to fracture aperture and spacing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghergut, I.; Behrens, H.; Karmakar, S.; Sauter, M.

    2012-04-01

    Dealing with a parallel-fracture system of infinite lateral extension, four characteristic regimes of tracer signal sensitivity w. r. to fracture aperture and w. r. to fracture spacing s (whose reciprocal defines fracture density, or the fluid-rock interface area per volume) can be identified during the pull phase of a single-well push-pull test, also depending upon the ratio between push-phase duration Tpush and a characteristic time scale Ts (defined by s2 / D = Ts , with D denoting the tracer's effective diffusion coefficient): early-time regime: tracer signals are sensitive w. r. to fracture aperture, but insensitive w. r. to fracture spacing; sensitivity w. r. to fracture aperture first increases, then decreases with Tpush / Ts (thus there will be an optimum in terms of to Tpush / Ts , at early pull times); mid-time regime: tracer signals are sensitive w. r. to fracture spacing, but insensitive w. r. to fracture aperture; sensitivity w. r. to fracture spacing increases with Tpush / Ts ; late-time regime: with increasing pull duration, tracer signals become increasingly insensitive w. r. to fracture spacing, while regaining sensitivity w. r. to fracture aperture; 'very late'-time regime: sensitivity w. r. to fracture aperture becomes independent upon Tpush / Ts . From these different regimes, some recommendations can be derived regarding the design and dimensioning of dual-tracer single-well push-pull tests for the specific purposes of geothermal reservoir characterization, using conservative solutes and heat as tracers. Acknowledgement: This study is funded by MWK Niedersachsen (Lower-Saxony's Science and Culture Ministry) and by Baker Hughes (Celle) within task unit 'G6' of the Collaborative Research Project 'gebo' (Geothermal Energy and High-Performance Drilling).

  7. Central neural alterations predominate in an insect model of nociceptive sensitization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabuena, Dennis R; Solis, Allan; Geraldi, Ken; Moffatt, Christopher A; Fuse, Megumi

    2017-04-01

    Many organisms respond to noxious stimuli with defensive maneuvers. This is noted in the hornworm, Manduca sexta, as a defensive strike response. After tissue damage, organisms typically display sensitized responses to both noxious or normally innocuous stimuli. To further understand this phenomenon, we used novel in situ and in vitro preparations based on paired extracellular nerve recordings and videography to identify central and peripheral nerves responsible for nociception and sensitization of the defensive behavior in M. sexta. In addition, we used the in vivo defensive strike response threshold assayed with von Frey filaments to examine the roles that N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) and hyperpolarization-activated, cyclic nucleotide-gated (HCN) channels play in this nociceptive sensitization using the inhibitors MK-801 and AP5 (NMDAR), and ivabradine and ZD7288 (HCN). Using our new preparations, we found that afferent activity evoked by noxious pinch in these preparations was conveyed to central ganglia by axons in the anterior- and lateral-dorsal nerve branches, and that sensitization induced by tissue damage was mediated centrally. Furthermore, sensitization was blocked by all inhibitors tested except the inactive isomer L-AP5, and reversed by ivabradine both in vivo and in vitro. Our findings suggest that M. sexta's sensitization occurs through central signal amplification. Due to the relatively natural sensitization method and conserved molecular actions, we suggest that M. sexta may be a valuable model for studying the electrophysiological properties of nociceptive sensitization and potentially related conditions such as allodynia and hyperalgesia in a comparative setting that offers unique experimental advantages. J. Comp. Neurol. 525:1176-1191, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Assessing the sensitivity and representativeness of the Belgian Sentinel Network of Laboratories using test reimbursement data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Nicolas; Muyldermans, Gaetan; Dupont, Yves; Quoilin, Sophie

    2016-01-01

    The Belgian Sentinel Network of Laboratories (SNL) was created in 1983 in order to monitor trends in infectious diseases. Given the evolution of the surveillance system, such as the waivers, fusions and adhesions of laboratories over time, it is important to evaluate whether the SNL is still fit for purpose. This study aims to evaluate aspects of the sensitivity and representativeness of the SNL by means of a test coverage analysis. We estimated test coverage of the SNL using the ratio of reimbursed tests performed by participating laboratories to the total number of tests performed between 2007 and 2012, for 12 (groups of) pathogens. We further evaluated the geographical difference coverage of the SNL at regional and provincial levels. We found that test coverage of the SNL was stable over time and close to, or greater than, 50 % for the 12 (groups of) pathogens studied. These results hold for the three regions of Belgium but not for all provinces. We showed that some provinces had a low test coverage for some pathogens and that test coverage was more variable over time at provincial level. This sensitivity and representativeness study based on test coverage suggests that the SNL is capable to describe trend and to monitor changes in the 12 (groups of) pathogens studied both at national and regional levels. Therefore, the SNL is useful to contribute to estimate the burden of disease and to inform preventive measures. It should however be reinforced to allow to be used as an alert system at provincial level.

  9. RE-1000 free-piston Stirling engine sensitivity test results. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schreiber, J.G.; Geng, S.M.; Lorenz, G.V.

    1986-10-01

    The NASA Lewis Research Center has been testing a 1 kW (1.33 hp) free-piston Stirling engine at the NASA Lewis test facilities. The tests performed over the past several years have been on a single cylinder machine known as the RE-1000. The data recorded were to aid in the investigation of the dynamics and thermodynamics of the free-piston Stirling engine. The data are intended to be used primarily for computer code validation. NASA reports TM-82999, TM-83407, and TM-87126 give initial results of the engine tests. The tests were designed to investigate the sensitivity of the engine performance to variations on the mean pressure of the working space, the working fluid used, heater and cooler temperatures, regenerator porosity, power piston mass and displacer dynamics. These tests have now been completed at NASA Lewis. This report presents some of the detailed data collected in the sensitivity tests. In all, 781 data points were recorded. A complete description of the engine and test facility is given. Many of the data can be found in tabular form, while a microfiche containing all of the data points can be requested from NASA Lewis.

  10. A simple nomogram for sample size for estimating sensitivity and specificity of medical tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malhotra Rajeev

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Sensitivity and specificity measure inherent validity of a diagnostic test against a gold standard. Researchers develop new diagnostic methods to reduce the cost, risk, invasiveness, and time. Adequate sample size is a must to precisely estimate the validity of a diagnostic test. In practice, researchers generally decide about the sample size arbitrarily either at their convenience, or from the previous literature. We have devised a simple nomogram that yields statistically valid sample size for anticipated sensitivity or anticipated specificity. MS Excel version 2007 was used to derive the values required to plot the nomogram using varying absolute precision, known prevalence of disease, and 95% confidence level using the formula already available in the literature. The nomogram plot was obtained by suitably arranging the lines and distances to conform to this formula. This nomogram could be easily used to determine the sample size for estimating the sensitivity or specificity of a diagnostic test with required precision and 95% confidence level. Sample size at 90% and 99% confidence level, respectively, can also be obtained by just multiplying 0.70 and 1.75 with the number obtained for the 95% confidence level. A nomogram instantly provides the required number of subjects by just moving the ruler and can be repeatedly used without redoing the calculations. This can also be applied for reverse calculations. This nomogram is not applicable for testing of the hypothesis set-up and is applicable only when both diagnostic test and gold standard results have a dichotomous category.

  11. Automated particulate sampler field test model operations guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bowyer, S.M.; Miley, H.S.

    1996-10-01

    The Automated Particulate Sampler Field Test Model Operations Guide is a collection of documents which provides a complete picture of the Automated Particulate Sampler (APS) and the Field Test in which it was evaluated. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Automated Particulate Sampler was developed for the purpose of radionuclide particulate monitoring for use under the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Its design was directed by anticipated requirements of small size, low power consumption, low noise level, fully automatic operation, and most predominantly the sensitivity requirements of the Conference on Disarmament Working Paper 224 (CDWP224). This guide is intended to serve as both a reference document for the APS and to provide detailed instructions on how to operate the sampler. This document provides a complete description of the APS Field Test Model and all the activity related to its evaluation and progression.

  12. Skin prick test results to artesunate in children sensitized to Artemisia vulgaris L.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, F; Pantano, S; Rossi, M E; Montagnani, C; Chiappini, E; Novembre, E; Galli, L; de Martino, M

    2015-09-01

    Artemisia vulgaris L and Artemisia annua L (Chinese: qinghao) are similar plants of the Asterbaceae family. Artesunate, a semi-synthetic derivate of artemisin which is the active principle extract of the plant qinghao, has antimalarial properties. Some cases of severe allergic reactions to artesunate have been described. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between positive skin tests to Artemisia vulgaris L allergen and a preparation of injectable artesunate. A total of 531 children were skin prick tested with inhalants (including Artemisia vulgaris L), foods, and artesunate. Among the 59 patients positive to Artemisia vulgaris L only one child was also positive to artesunate. No child was positive to artesunate in those negative to Artemisia vulgaris L. We conclude that Artemisia vulgaris L sensitization is not associated with sensitization to artesunate; consequently, skin test to artesunate should not be carried out before using the drug considering the rare allergic reactions. © The Author(s) 2015.

  13. Space Launch System Scale Model Acoustic Test Ignition Overpressure Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nance, Donald; Liever, Peter; Nielsen, Tanner

    2015-01-01

    The overpressure phenomenon is a transient fluid dynamic event occurring during rocket propulsion system ignition. This phenomenon results from fluid compression of the accelerating plume gas, subsequent rarefaction, and subsequent propagation from the exhaust trench and duct holes. The high-amplitude unsteady fluid-dynamic perturbations can adversely affect the vehicle and surrounding structure. Commonly known as ignition overpressure (IOP), this is an important design-to environment for the Space Launch System (SLS) that NASA is currently developing. Subscale testing is useful in validating and verifying the IOP environment. This was one of the objectives of the Scale Model Acoustic Test, conducted at Marshall Space Flight Center. The test data quantifies the effectiveness of the SLS IOP suppression system and improves the analytical models used to predict the SLS IOP environments. The reduction and analysis of the data gathered during the SMAT IOP test series requires identification and characterization of multiple dynamic events and scaling of the event waveforms to provide the most accurate comparisons to determine the effectiveness of the IOP suppression systems. The identification and characterization of the overpressure events, the waveform scaling, the computation of the IOP suppression system knockdown factors, and preliminary comparisons to the analytical models are discussed.

  14. A two-gene blood test for methylated DNA sensitive for colorectal cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne K Pedersen

    Full Text Available Specific genes are methylated with high frequency in colorectal neoplasia, and may leak into blood. Detection of multiple methylated DNA biomarkers in blood may improve assay sensitivity for colorectal cancer (CRC relative to a single marker. We undertook a case-control study evaluating the presence of two methylation DNA markers, BCAT1 and IKZF1, in circulation to determine if they were complementary for detection of CRC.Methylation-specific PCR assays were developed to measure the level of methylated BCAT1 and IKZF1 in DNA extracted from plasma obtained from colonoscopy-confirmed 144 healthy controls and 74 CRC cases.DNA yields ranged from 2 to 730 ng/mL plasma (mean 18.6ng/mL; 95% CI 11-26 ng/mL and did not correlate with gender, age or CRC status. Methylated BCAT1 and IKZF1 DNA were detected in respectively 48 (65% and 50 (68% of the 74 cancers. In contrast, only 5 (4% and 7 (5% controls were positive for BCAT1 and IKZF1 DNA methylation, respectively. A two-gene classifier model ("either or" rule improved segregation of CRC from controls, with 57 of 74 cancers (77% compared to only 11 of 144 (7.6% controls being positive for BCAT1 and/or IKZF1 DNA methylation. Increasing levels of methylated DNA were observed as CRC stage progressed.Detection of methylated BCAT1 and/or IKZF1 DNA in plasma may have clinical application as a novel blood test for CRC. Combining the results from the two methylation-specific PCR assays improved CRC detection with minimal change in specificity. Further validation of this two-gene blood test with a view to application in screening is now indicated.

  15. Estimating negative likelihood ratio confidence when test sensitivity is 100%: A bootstrapping approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marill, Keith A; Chang, Yuchiao; Wong, Kim F; Friedman, Ari B

    2017-08-01

    Objectives Assessing high-sensitivity tests for mortal illness is crucial in emergency and critical care medicine. Estimating the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the likelihood ratio (LR) can be challenging when sample sensitivity is 100%. We aimed to develop, compare, and automate a bootstrapping method to estimate the negative LR CI when sample sensitivity is 100%. Methods The lowest population sensitivity that is most likely to yield sample sensitivity 100% is located using the binomial distribution. Random binomial samples generated using this population sensitivity are then used in the LR bootstrap. A free R program, "bootLR," automates the process. Extensive simulations were performed to determine how often the LR bootstrap and comparator method 95% CIs cover the true population negative LR value. Finally, the 95% CI was compared for theoretical sample sizes and sensitivities approaching and including 100% using: (1) a technique of individual extremes, (2) SAS software based on the technique of Gart and Nam, (3) the Score CI (as implemented in the StatXact, SAS, and R PropCI package), and (4) the bootstrapping technique. Results The bootstrapping approach demonstrates appropriate coverage of the nominal 95% CI over a spectrum of populations and sample sizes. Considering a study of sample size 200 with 100 patients with disease, and specificity 60%, the lowest population sensitivity with median sample sensitivity 100% is 99.31%. When all 100 patients with disease test positive, the negative LR 95% CIs are: individual extremes technique (0,0.073), StatXact (0,0.064), SAS Score method (0,0.057), R PropCI (0,0.062), and bootstrap (0,0.048). Similar trends were observed for other sample sizes. Conclusions When study samples demonstrate 100% sensitivity, available methods may yield inappropriately wide negative LR CIs. An alternative bootstrapping approach and accompanying free open-source R package were developed to yield realistic estimates easily. This

  16. Gender differences in emotion perception and self-reported emotional intelligence: A test of the emotion sensitivity hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kret, Mariska E.; Broekens, Joost

    2018-01-01

    Previous meta-analyses and reviews on gender differences in emotion recognition have shown a small to moderate female advantage. However, inconsistent evidence from recent studies has raised questions regarding the implications of different methodologies, stimuli, and samples. In the present research based on a community sample of more than 5000 participants, we tested the emotional sensitivity hypothesis, stating that women are more sensitive to perceive subtle, i.e. low intense or ambiguous, emotion cues. In addition, we included a self-report emotional intelligence test in order to examine any discrepancy between self-perceptions and actual performance for both men and women. We used a wide range of stimuli and models, displaying six different emotions at two different intensity levels. In order to better tap sensitivity for subtle emotion cues, we did not use a forced choice format, but rather intensity measures of different emotions. We found no support for the emotional sensitivity account, as both genders rated the target emotions as similarly intense at both levels of stimulus intensity. Men, however, more strongly perceived non-target emotions to be present than women. In addition, we also found that the lower scores of men in self-reported EI was not related to their actual perception of target emotions, but it was to the perception of non-target emotions. PMID:29370198

  17. Gender differences in emotion perception and self-reported emotional intelligence: A test of the emotion sensitivity hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Agneta H; Kret, Mariska E; Broekens, Joost

    2018-01-01

    Previous meta-analyses and reviews on gender differences in emotion recognition have shown a small to moderate female advantage. However, inconsistent evidence from recent studies has raised questions regarding the implications of different methodologies, stimuli, and samples. In the present research based on a community sample of more than 5000 participants, we tested the emotional sensitivity hypothesis, stating that women are more sensitive to perceive subtle, i.e. low intense or ambiguous, emotion cues. In addition, we included a self-report emotional intelligence test in order to examine any discrepancy between self-perceptions and actual performance for both men and women. We used a wide range of stimuli and models, displaying six different emotions at two different intensity levels. In order to better tap sensitivity for subtle emotion cues, we did not use a forced choice format, but rather intensity measures of different emotions. We found no support for the emotional sensitivity account, as both genders rated the target emotions as similarly intense at both levels of stimulus intensity. Men, however, more strongly perceived non-target emotions to be present than women. In addition, we also found that the lower scores of men in self-reported EI was not related to their actual perception of target emotions, but it was to the perception of non-target emotions.

  18. Comprehensive mechanisms for combustion chemistry: Experiment, modeling, and sensitivity analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dryer, F.L.; Yetter, R.A. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)

    1993-12-01

    This research program is an integrated experimental/numerical effort to study pyrolysis and oxidation reactions and mechanisms for small-molecule hydrocarbon structures under conditions representative of combustion environments. The experimental aspects of the work are conducted in large diameter flow reactors, at pressures from one to twenty atmospheres, temperatures from 550 K to 1200 K, and with observed reaction times from 10{sup {minus}2} to 5 seconds. Gas sampling of stable reactant, intermediate, and product species concentrations provides not only substantial definition of the phenomenology of reaction mechanisms, but a significantly constrained set of kinetic information with negligible diffusive coupling. Analytical techniques used for detecting hydrocarbons and carbon oxides include gas chromatography (GC), and gas infrared (NDIR) and FTIR methods are utilized for continuous on-line sample detection of light absorption measurements of OH have also been performed in an atmospheric pressure flow reactor (APFR), and a variable pressure flow (VPFR) reactor is presently being instrumented to perform optical measurements of radicals and highly reactive molecular intermediates. The numerical aspects of the work utilize zero and one-dimensional pre-mixed, detailed kinetic studies, including path, elemental gradient sensitivity, and feature sensitivity analyses. The program emphasizes the use of hierarchical mechanistic construction to understand and develop detailed kinetic mechanisms. Numerical studies are utilized for guiding experimental parameter selections, for interpreting observations, for extending the predictive range of mechanism constructs, and to study the effects of diffusive transport coupling on reaction behavior in flames. Modeling using well defined and validated mechanisms for the CO/H{sub 2}/oxidant systems.

  19. Shock sensitivity of diaminoazoxyfurazan (DAAF) using an instrumented small scale gap test

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Francois, Elizabeth G [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Chavez, David E [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Mang, Joseph T [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Sanders, V Eric [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Lloyd, Joseph M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    Diaminoazoxy furazan (DAAF) is an insensitive high explosive first synthesized in Russia in the 1980s and the synthesis path was developed at Los Alamos National Lab in the early 2000s. DAAF has safety characteristics (impact, friction) similar to TATB, but a critical diameter of less than 3mm and shock sensitivity similar to HMX. The combination of these characteristics is unusual and makes DAAF an interesting explosive that is suitable for booster applications. Gap testing is the ubiquitous test to statistically quantify shock sensitivity, but it exists in many forms. We used the LANL small scale gap test for our studies because it has the advantage of requiring very little material (less than 9g per test) and can be easily instrumented. While the gap test is statistical in nature, employing the Bruceton up-down method to determine a 50% point of detonation, we wanted to measure the shock velocity of the donor explosive into DAAF. To accomplish this, a series of shock wave experiments were conducted using representative gaps to capture the input pressure to the DAAF and to understand the shock pressure required for detonation. The experiments included in this paper investigated the effects of particle size on the shock sensitivity of DAAF. Three particle sizes (< 5{micro}m, 40{micro}m, and 80{micro}m) were tested at two densities (91% TMD and 97% TMD). The 80{micro}m particle size DAAF was obtained through the historic synthesis process, which also produces several energetic impurities. A novel synthesis process, which was developed at LANL over the past two years, produced DAAF with a 40 {micro}m particle size. Crash precipitating the 80 {micro}m DAAF in dimethyl sulfoxide, to render pure, yielded small (< 5 {micro}m) particle size DAAF. As expected the shock sensitivity is depressed by increasing density (decreasing porosity) and shows interesting trends with respect to particle size.

  20. Model to Test Electric Field Comparisons in a Composite Fairing Cavity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trout, Dawn H.; Burford, Janessa

    2013-01-01

    Evaluating the impact of radio frequency transmission in vehicle fairings is important to sensitive spacecraft. This study shows cumulative distribution function (CDF) comparisons of composite a fairing electromagnetic field data obtained by computational electromagnetic 3D full wave modeling and laboratory testing. This work is an extension of the bare aluminum fairing perfect electric conductor (PEC) model. Test and model data correlation is shown.

  1. Analysis of Sea Ice Cover Sensitivity in Global Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. P. Parhomenko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents joint calculations using a 3D atmospheric general circulation model, an ocean model, and a sea ice evolution model. The purpose of the work is to analyze a seasonal and annual evolution of sea ice, long-term variability of a model ice cover, and its sensitivity to some parameters of model as well to define atmosphere-ice-ocean interaction.Results of 100 years simulations of Arctic basin sea ice evolution are analyzed. There are significant (about 0.5 m inter-annual fluctuations of an ice cover.The ice - atmosphere sensible heat flux reduced by 10% leads to the growth of average sea ice thickness within the limits of 0.05 m – 0.1 m. However in separate spatial points the thickness decreases up to 0.5 m. An analysis of the seasonably changing average ice thickness with decreasing, as compared to the basic variant by 0.05 of clear sea ice albedo and that of snow shows the ice thickness reduction in a range from 0.2 m up to 0.6 m, and the change maximum falls for the summer season of intensive melting. The spatial distribution of ice thickness changes shows, that on the large part of the Arctic Ocean there was a reduction of ice thickness down to 1 m. However, there is also an area of some increase of the ice layer basically in a range up to 0.2 m (Beaufort Sea. The 0.05 decrease of sea ice snow albedo leads to reduction of average ice thickness approximately by 0.2 m, and this value slightly depends on a season. In the following experiment the ocean – ice thermal interaction influence on the ice cover is estimated. It is carried out by increase of a heat flux from ocean to the bottom surface of sea ice by 2 W/sq. m in comparison with base variant. The analysis demonstrates, that the average ice thickness reduces in a range from 0.2 m to 0.35 m. There are small seasonal changes of this value.The numerical experiments results have shown, that an ice cover and its seasonal evolution rather strongly depend on varied parameters

  2. Sensitivity analysis of nacelle lidar free stream wind speed measurements to wind-induction reconstruction model and lidar range configuration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svensson, Elin; Borraccino, Antoine; Meyer Forsting, Alexander Raul

    configurations. The wind speeds were reconstructed using both a onedimensional and two-dimensional induction model to test the sensitivity towards the wind-induction model. In all cases, the sensitivity of the reconstructed wind speed was determined from the wind speed error and root mean square error (RMSE...... based on the NKE sensitivity analysis results. Based on these results, it is recommended to configure nacelle lidars to measure at approximately 3-5 ranges. The minimum distance should be configured to roughly 0.5 rotor diameters (Drot) while it is recommended that the maximum range lay within 1-1.5Drot...

  3. Relevance of Cat and Dog Sensitization by Skin Prick Testing in Childhood Eczema and Asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hon, Kam Lun; Tsang, Kathy Yin Ching; Pong, Nga Hin Henry; Leung, Ting Fan

    2017-01-01

    Household animal dander has been implicated as aeroallergen in childhood atopic diseases. Many parents seek healthcare advice if household pet keeping may be detrimental in atopic eczema (AE), allergic rhinitis and asthma. We investigated if skin sensitization by cat/dog dander was associated with disease severity and quality of life in children with AE. Demographics, skin prick test (SPT) results, disease severity (Nottingham eczema severity score NESS), Children Dermatology Life Quality Index (CDLQI), blood IgE and eosinophil counts of a cohort of AE patients were reviewed. 325 AE patients followed at a pediatric dermatology clinic were evaluated. Personal history of asthma was lowest (20%) in the dog-dander-positive-group but highest (61%) in bothcat- and-dog-dander-positive group (p=0.007). Binomial logistic regression ascertained that catdander sensitization was associated with increasing age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.056; 95% Confidence Interval [CI], 1.006 to 1.109; p=0.029), dust-mite sensitization (aOR, 4.625; 95% CI, 1.444 to 14.815; p=0.010), food-allergen sensitization (aOR, 2.330; 95% CI, 1.259 to 4.310; p=0.007) and keeping-cat-ever (aOR, 7.325; 95% CI, 1.193 to 44.971; p=0.032); whereas dogdander sensitization was associated with dust-mite sensitization (aOR, 9.091; 95% CI, 1.148 to 71.980; p=0.037), food-allergen sensitization (aOR, 3.568; 95% CI, 1.341 to 9.492; p=0.011) and keeping-dog-ever (aOR, 6.809; 95% CI, 2.179 to 21.281; p=0.001). However, neither cat nor dog sensitization were associated with asthma, allergic rhinitis, parental or sibling atopic status, disease severity or quality of life. Physicians should advise parents that there is no direct correlation between AE severity, quality of life, asthma or allergic rhinitis with cutaneous sensitization to cats or dogs. Sensitized patients especially those with concomitant asthma and severe symptoms may consider non-furry alternatives if they plan to have a pet. Highly sensitized

  4. Modeling cross-hole slug tests in an unconfined aquifer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malama, Bwalya; Kuhlman, Kristopher L.; Brauchler, Ralf; Bayer, Peter

    2016-09-01

    A modified version of a published slug test model for unconfined aquifers is applied to cross-hole slug test data collected in field tests conducted at the Widen site in Switzerland. The model accounts for water-table effects using the linearized kinematic condition. The model also accounts for inertial effects in source and observation wells. The primary objective of this work is to demonstrate applicability of this semi-analytical model to multi-well and multi-level pneumatic slug tests. The pneumatic perturbation was applied at discrete intervals in a source well and monitored at discrete vertical intervals in observation wells. The source and observation well pairs were separated by distances of up to 4 m. The analysis yielded vertical profiles of hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, and specific yield at observation well locations. The hydraulic parameter estimates are compared to results from prior pumping and single-well slug tests conducted at the site, as well as to estimates from particle size analyses of sediment collected from boreholes during well installation. The results are in general agreement with results from prior tests and are indicative of a sand and gravel aquifer. Sensitivity analysis show that model identification of specific yield is strongest at late-time. However, the usefulness of late-time data is limited due to the low signal-to-noise ratios.

  5. Sensitivity analysis and calibration of a dynamic physically based slope stability model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zieher, Thomas; Rutzinger, Martin; Schneider-Muntau, Barbara; Perzl, Frank; Leidinger, David; Formayer, Herbert; Geitner, Clemens

    2017-06-01

    Physically based modelling of slope stability on a catchment scale is still a challenging task. When applying a physically based model on such a scale (1 : 10 000 to 1 : 50 000), parameters with a high impact on the model result should be calibrated to account for (i) the spatial variability of parameter values, (ii) shortcomings of the selected model, (iii) uncertainties of laboratory tests and field measurements or (iv) parameters that cannot be derived experimentally or measured in the field (e.g. calibration constants). While systematic parameter calibration is a common task in hydrological modelling, this is rarely done using physically based slope stability models. In the present study a dynamic, physically based, coupled hydrological-geomechanical slope stability model is calibrated based on a limited number of laboratory tests and a detailed multitemporal shallow landslide inventory covering two landslide-triggering rainfall events in the Laternser valley, Vorarlberg (Austria). Sensitive parameters are identified based on a local one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis. These parameters (hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, angle of internal friction for effective stress, cohesion for effective stress) are systematically sampled and calibrated for a landslide-triggering rainfall event in August 2005. The identified model ensemble, including 25 behavioural model runs with the highest portion of correctly predicted landslides and non-landslides, is then validated with another landslide-triggering rainfall event in May 1999. The identified model ensemble correctly predicts the location and the supposed triggering timing of 73.0 % of the observed landslides triggered in August 2005 and 91.5 % of the observed landslides triggered in May 1999. Results of the model ensemble driven with raised precipitation input reveal a slight increase in areas potentially affected by slope failure. At the same time, the peak run-off increases more markedly, suggesting that

  6. Sensitivity of Hydrologic Response to Climate Model Debiasing Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Channell, K.; Gronewold, A.; Rood, R. B.; Xiao, C.; Lofgren, B. M.; Hunter, T.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is already having a profound impact on the global hydrologic cycle. In the Laurentian Great Lakes, changes in long-term evaporation and precipitation can lead to rapid water level fluctuations in the lakes, as evidenced by unprecedented change in water levels seen in the last two decades. These fluctuations often have an adverse impact on the region's human, environmental, and economic well-being, making accurate long-term water level projections invaluable to regional water resources management planning. Here we use hydrological components from a downscaled climate model (GFDL-CM3/WRF), to obtain future water supplies for the Great Lakes. We then apply a suite of bias correction procedures before propagating these water supplies through a routing model to produce lake water levels. Results using conventional bias correction methods suggest that water levels will decline by several feet in the coming century. However, methods that reflect the seasonal water cycle and explicitly debias individual hydrological components (overlake precipitation, overlake evaporation, runoff) imply that future water levels may be closer to their historical average. This discrepancy between debiased results indicates that water level forecasts are highly influenced by the bias correction method, a source of sensitivity that is commonly overlooked. Debiasing, however, does not remedy misrepresentation of the underlying physical processes in the climate model that produce these biases and contribute uncertainty to the hydrological projections. This uncertainty coupled with the differences in water level forecasts from varying bias correction methods are important for water management and long term planning in the Great Lakes region.

  7. Testing environment shape differentially modulates baseline and nicotine-induced changes in behavior: Sex differences, hypoactivity, and behavioral sensitization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illenberger, J M; Mactutus, C F; Booze, R M; Harrod, S B

    2018-02-01

    In those who use nicotine, the likelihood of dependence, negative health consequences, and failed treatment outcomes differ as a function of gender. Women may be more sensitive to learning processes driven by repeated nicotine exposure that influence conditioned approach and craving. Sex differences in nicotine's influence over overt behaviors (i.e. hypoactivity or behavioral sensitization) can be examined using passive drug administration models in male and female rats. Following repeated intravenous (IV) nicotine injections, behavioral sensitization is enhanced in female rats compared to males. Nonetheless, characteristics of the testing environment also mediate rodent behavior following drug administration. The current experiment used a within-subjects design to determine if nicotine-induced changes in horizontal activity, center entries, and rearing displayed by male and female rats is detected when behavior was recorded in round vs. square chambers. Behaviors were recorded from each group (males-round: n=19; males-square: n=18; females-square: n=19; and females-round: n=19) immediately following IV injection of saline, acute nicotine, and repeated nicotine (0.05mg/kg/injection). Prior to nicotine treatment, sex differences were apparent only in round chambers. Following nicotine administration, the order of magnitude for the chamber that provided enhanced detection of hypoactivity or sensitization was contingent upon both the dependent measure under examination and the animal's biological sex. As such, round and square testing chambers provide different, and sometimes contradictory, accounts of how male and female rats respond to nicotine treatment. It is possible that a central mechanism such as stress or cue sensitivity is impacted by both drug exposure and environment to drive the sex differences observed in the current experiment. Until these complex relations are better understood, experiments considering sex differences in drug responses should balance

  8. Economic analysis of rapid and sensitive polymerase chain reaction testing in the emergency department for influenza infections in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Richard E; Stockmann, Chris; Hersh, Adam L; Pavia, Andrew T; Korgenksi, Kent; Daly, Judy A; Couturier, Marc R; Ampofo, Krow; Thorell, Emily A; Doby, Elizabeth H; Robison, Jeff A; Blaschke, Anne J

    2015-06-01

    Rapid multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays simultaneously detect several respiratory viral pathogens with high sensitivity. Maximizing detection of influenza at the point of care has the potential to reduce unnecessary antibiotic use, laboratory tests and hospitalizations. However, the cost-effectiveness of rapid multiplex PCR assays for influenza has not been compared with other diagnostic methods in children. For children presenting to the emergency department with influenza-like illness, we compared costs and outcomes using 4 different testing strategies for detection of influenza: (1) a rapid multiplex PCR platform (FilmArray); (2) traditional PCR; (3) direct-fluorescent antibody and (4) rapid antigen tests. Costs were assessed from the hospital perspective, and effectiveness was defined as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Input parameters were obtained from previous studies, and the model was run separately for children aged 3-36 months and 3-18 years. Rapid multiplex PCR testing was the most effective testing strategy for children in both age groups. The incremental cost-effectiveness when compared with rapid antigen tests was $115,556 per QALY for children aged 3-36 months and from $228,000 per QALY for children aged 3-18 years. The cost-effectiveness of rapid multiplex PCR was sensitive to estimates for influenza prevalence, the proportion of patients treated with antivirals and the cost per test. Our model identifies scenarios in which identification of influenza in the emergency department using rapid multiplex PCR testing is a cost-effective strategy for infants and children 3 months through 18 years. Including detection of other respiratory viruses in the analysis would further improve cost-effectiveness.

  9. [Parameter sensitivity of simulating net primary productivity of Larix olgensis forest based on BIOME-BGC model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Li-hong; Wang, Hai-yan; Lei, Xiang-dong

    2016-02-01

    Model based on vegetation ecophysiological process contains many parameters, and reasonable parameter values will greatly improve simulation ability. Sensitivity analysis, as an important method to screen out the sensitive parameters, can comprehensively analyze how model parameters affect the simulation results. In this paper, we conducted parameter sensitivity analysis of BIOME-BGC model with a case study of simulating net primary productivity (NPP) of Larix olgensis forest in Wangqing, Jilin Province. First, with the contrastive analysis between field measurement data and the simulation results, we tested the BIOME-BGC model' s capability of simulating the NPP of L. olgensis forest. Then, Morris and EFAST sensitivity methods were used to screen the sensitive parameters that had strong influence on NPP. On this basis, we also quantitatively estimated the sensitivity of the screened parameters, and calculated the global, the first-order and the second-order sensitivity indices. The results showed that the BIOME-BGC model could well simulate the NPP of L. olgensis forest in the sample plot. The Morris sensitivity method provided a reliable parameter sensitivity analysis result under the condition of a relatively small sample size. The EFAST sensitivity method could quantitatively measure the impact of simulation result of a single parameter as well as the interaction between the parameters in BIOME-BGC model. The influential sensitive parameters for L. olgensis forest NPP were new stem carbon to new leaf carbon allocation and leaf carbon to nitrogen ratio, the effect of their interaction was significantly greater than the other parameter' teraction effect.

  10. Sensitivity of precipitation to parameter values in the community atmosphere model version 5

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johannesson, Gardar; Lucas, Donald; Qian, Yun; Swiler, Laura Painton; Wildey, Timothy Michael

    2014-03-01

    One objective of the Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF) program is to develop the capability to thoroughly test and understand the uncertainties in the overall climate model and its components as they are being developed. The focus on uncertainties involves sensitivity analysis: the capability to determine which input parameters have a major influence on the output responses of interest. This report presents some initial sensitivity analysis results performed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LNNL), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). In the 2011-2012 timeframe, these laboratories worked in collaboration to perform sensitivity analyses of a set of CAM5, 2° runs, where the response metrics of interest were precipitation metrics. The three labs performed their sensitivity analysis (SA) studies separately and then compared results. Overall, the results were quite consistent with each other although the methods used were different. This exercise provided a robustness check of the global sensitivity analysis metrics and identified some strongly influential parameters.

  11. Evaluating the influence of selected parameters on sensitivity of a numerical model of solidification

    OpenAIRE

    N. Sczygiol; R. Dyja

    2007-01-01

    Presented paper contains evaluation of influence of selected parameters on sensitivity of a numerical model of solidification. The investigated model is based on the heat conduction equation with a heat source and solved using the finite element method (FEM). The model is built with the use of enthalpy formulation for solidification and using an intermediate solid fraction growth model. The model sensitivity is studied with the use of Morris method, which is one of global sensitivity methods....

  12. Modeling a Small Punch Testing Device

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Habibi

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available A small punch test of a sample in miniature is implemented in order to estimate the ultimate load of CrMoV ductile steel. The objective of this study is to model the ultimate tensile strength and ultimate load indentation according to the geometrical parameters of the SPT using experimental data. A comparison of the model obtained with the two models (European code of practice and method of Norris and Parker allows the design and dimensioning of an indentation device that meets the practical constraints. Implemented as a Matlab program, allows the investigation of new combinations of test variables.

  13. Large-Scale Transport Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis: Distributed Sources in Complex Hydrogeologic Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sig Drellack, Lance Prothro

    2007-01-01

    The Underground Test Area (UGTA) Project of the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office is in the process of assessing and developing regulatory decision options based on modeling predictions of contaminant transport from underground testing of nuclear weapons at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). The UGTA Project is attempting to develop an effective modeling strategy that addresses and quantifies multiple components of uncertainty including natural variability, parameter uncertainty, conceptual/model uncertainty, and decision uncertainty in translating model results into regulatory requirements. The modeling task presents multiple unique challenges to the hydrological sciences as a result of the complex fractured and faulted hydrostratigraphy, the distributed locations of sources, the suite of reactive and non-reactive radionuclides, and uncertainty in conceptual models. Characterization of the hydrogeologic system is difficult and expensive because of deep groundwater in the arid desert setting and the large spatial setting of the NTS. Therefore, conceptual model uncertainty is partially addressed through the development of multiple alternative conceptual models of the hydrostratigraphic framework and multiple alternative models of recharge and discharge. Uncertainty in boundary conditions is assessed through development of alternative groundwater fluxes through multiple simulations using the regional groundwater flow model. Calibration of alternative models to heads and measured or inferred fluxes has not proven to provide clear measures of model quality. Therefore, model screening by comparison to independently-derived natural geochemical mixing targets through cluster analysis has also been invoked to evaluate differences between alternative conceptual models. Advancing multiple alternative flow models, sensitivity of transport predictions to parameter uncertainty is assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. The

  14. The Sandia MEMS Passive Shock Sensor : FY08 testing for functionality, model validation, and technology readiness.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walraven, Jeremy Allen; Blecke, Jill; Baker, Michael Sean; Clemens, Rebecca C.; Mitchell, John Anthony; Brake, Matthew Robert; Epp, David S.; Wittwer, Jonathan W.

    2008-10-01

    This report summarizes the functional, model validation, and technology readiness testing of the Sandia MEMS Passive Shock Sensor in FY08. Functional testing of a large number of revision 4 parts showed robust and consistent performance. Model validation testing helped tune the models to match data well and identified several areas for future investigation related to high frequency sensitivity and thermal effects. Finally, technology readiness testing demonstrated the integrated elements of the sensor under realistic environments.

  15. In silico modeling predicts drug sensitivity of patient-derived cancer cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pingle, Sandeep C; Sultana, Zeba; Pastorino, Sandra; Jiang, Pengfei; Mukthavaram, Rajesh; Chao, Ying; Bharati, Ila Sri; Nomura, Natsuko; Makale, Milan; Abbasi, Taher; Kapoor, Shweta; Kumar, Ansu; Usmani, Shahabuddin; Agrawal, Ashish; Vali, Shireen; Kesari, Santosh

    2014-05-21

    Glioblastoma (GBM) is an aggressive disease associated with poor survival. It is essential to account for the complexity of GBM biology to improve diagnostic and therapeutic strategies. This complexity is best represented by the increasing amounts of profiling ("omics") data available due to advances in biotechnology. The challenge of integrating these vast genomic and proteomic data can be addressed by a comprehensive systems modeling approach. Here, we present an in silico model, where we simulate GBM tumor cells using genomic profiling data. We use this in silico tumor model to predict responses of cancer cells to targeted drugs. Initially, we probed the results from a recent hypothesis-independent, empirical study by Garnett and co-workers that analyzed the sensitivity of hundreds of profiled cancer cell lines to 130 different anticancer agents. We then used the tumor model to predict sensitivity of patient-derived GBM cell lines to different targeted therapeutic agents. Among the drug-mutation associations reported in the Garnett study, our in silico model accurately predicted ~85% of the associations. While testing the model in a prospective manner using simulations of patient-derived GBM cell lines, we compared our simulation predictions with experimental data using the same cells in vitro. This analysis yielded a ~75% agreement of in silico drug sensitivity with in vitro experimental findings. These results demonstrate a strong predictability of our simulation approach using the in silico tumor model presented here. Our ultimate goal is to use this model to stratify patients for clinical trials. By accurately predicting responses of cancer cells to targeted agents a priori, this in silico tumor model provides an innovative approach to personalizing therapy and promises to improve clinical management of cancer.

  16. Primary care patient willingness for genetic testing for salt-sensitive hypertension: a cross sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okayama, Masanobu; Takeshima, Taro; Ae, Ryusuke; Harada, Masanori; Kajii, Eiji

    2013-10-09

    The current research into single nucleotide polymorphisms has extended the role of genetic testing to the identification of increased risk for common medical conditions. Advances in genetic research may soon necessitate preparation for the role of genetic testing in primary care medicine. This study attempts to determine what proportion of patients would be willing to undergo genetic testing for salt-sensitive hypertension in a primary care setting, and what factors are related to this willingness. A cross-sectional study using a self-report questionnaire was conducted among outpatients in primary care clinics and hospitals in Japan. The main characteristics measured were education level, family medical history, personal medical history, concern about hypertension, salt preference, reducing salt intake, and willingness to undergo genetic testing for salt-sensitive hypertension. Of 1,932 potential participants, 1,457 (75%) responded to the survey. Of the respondents, 726 (50%) indicated a willingness to undergo genetic testing. Factors related to this willingness were being over 50 years old (adjusted odds ratio [ad-OR] = 1.42, 95% Confidence interval = 1.09 - 1.85), having a high level of education (ad-OR: 1.83, 1.38 - 2.42), having a family history of hypertension (ad-OR: 1.36, 1.09 - 1.71), and worrying about hypertension (ad-OR: 2.06, 1.59 - 2.68). Half of the primary care outpatients surveyed in this study wanted to know their genetic risk for salt-sensitive hypertension. Those who were worried about hypertension or had a family history of hypertension were more likely to be interested in getting tested. These findings suggest that primary care physicians should provide patients with advice on genetic testing, as well as address their anxieties and concerns related to developing hypertension.

  17. Modelling pesticides volatilisation in greenhouses: Sensitivity analysis of a modified PEARL model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houbraken, Michael; Doan Ngoc, Kim; van den Berg, Frederik; Spanoghe, Pieter

    2017-12-01

    The application of the existing PEARL model was extended to include estimations of the concentration of crop protection products in greenhouse (indoor) air due to volatilisation from the plant surface. The model was modified to include the processes of ventilation of the greenhouse air to the outside atmosphere and transformation in the air. A sensitivity analysis of the model was performed by varying selected input parameters on a one-by-one basis and comparing the model outputs with the outputs of the reference scenarios. The sensitivity analysis indicates that - in addition to vapour pressure - the model had the highest ratio of variation for the rate ventilation rate and thickness of the boundary layer on the day of application. On the days after application, competing processes, degradation and uptake in the plant, becomes more important. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Early visual ERPs show stable body-sensitive patterns over a 4-week test period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groves, Katie; Kennett, Steffan; Gillmeister, Helge

    2018-01-01

    Event-related potential (ERP) studies feature among the most cited papers in the field of body representation, with recent research highlighting the potential of ERPs as neuropsychiatric biomarkers. Despite this, investigation into how reliable early visual ERPs and body-sensitive effects are over time has been overlooked. This study therefore aimed to assess the stability of early body-sensitive effects and visual P1, N1 and VPP responses. Participants were asked to identify pictures of their own bodies, other bodies and houses during an EEG test session that was completed at the same time, once a week, for four consecutive weeks. Results showed that amplitude and latency of early visual components and their associated body-sensitive effects were stable over the 4-week period. Furthermore, correlational analyses revealed that VPP component amplitude might be more reliable than VPP latency and specific electrode sites might be more robust indicators of body-sensitive cortical activity than others. These findings suggest that visual P1, N1 and VPP responses, alongside body-sensitive N1/VPP effects, are robust indications of neuronal activity. We conclude that these components are eligible to be considered as electrophysiological biomarkers relevant to body representation. PMID:29438399

  19. Adaptive Management Plan for Sensitive Plant Species on the Nevada Test Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    C. A. Wills

    2001-03-01

    The Nevada Test Site supports numerous plant species considered sensitive because of their past or present status under the Endangered Species Act and with federal and state agencies. In 1998, the U.S. Department of Energy, Nevada Operation Office (DOE/NV) prepared a Resource Management Plan which commits to protects and conserve these sensitive plant species and to minimize accumulative impacts to them. This document presents the procedures of a long-term adaptive management plan which is meant to ensure that these goals are met. It identifies the parameters that are measured for all sensitive plant populations during long-term monitoring and the adaptive management actions which may be taken if significant threats to these populations are detected. This plan does not, however, identify the current list of sensitive plant species know to occur on the Nevada Test Site. The current species list and progress on their monitoring is reported annually by DOE/NV in the Resource Management Plan.

  20. Adaptive Management Plan for Sensitive Plant Species on the Nevada Test Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wills, C. A.

    2001-01-01

    The Nevada Test Site supports numerous plant species considered sensitive because of their past or present status under the Endangered Species Act and with federal and state agencies. In 1998, the U.S. Department of Energy, Nevada Operation Office (DOE/NV) prepared a Resource Management Plan which commits to protects and conserve these sensitive plant species and to minimize accumulative impacts to them. This document presents the procedures of a long-term adaptive management plan which is meant to ensure that these goals are met. It identifies the parameters that are measured for all sensitive plant populations during long-term monitoring and the adaptive management actions which may be taken if significant threats to these populations are detected. This plan does not, however, identify the current list of sensitive plant species know to occur on the Nevada Test Site. The current species list and progress on their monitoring is reported annually by DOE/NV in the Resource Management Plan

  1. Sensitivity and validity of psychometric tests for assessing driving impairment: effects of sleep deprivation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Jongen

    Full Text Available To assess drug induced driving impairment, initial screening is needed. However, no consensus has been reached about which initial screening tools have to be used. The present study aims to determine the ability of a battery of psychometric tests to detect performance impairing effects of clinically relevant levels of drowsiness as induced by one night of sleep deprivation.Twenty four healthy volunteers participated in a 2-period crossover study in which the highway driving test was conducted twice: once after normal sleep and once after one night of sleep deprivation. The psychometric tests were conducted on 4 occasions: once after normal sleep (at 11 am and three times during a single night of sleep deprivation (at 1 am, 5 am, and 11 am.On-the-road driving performance was significantly impaired after sleep deprivation, as measured by an increase in Standard Deviation of Lateral Position (SDLP of 3.1 cm compared to performance after a normal night of sleep. At 5 am, performance in most psychometric tests showed significant impairment. As expected, largest effect sizes were found on performance in the Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT. Large effects sizes were also found in the Divided Attention Test (DAT, the Attention Network Test (ANT, and the test for Useful Field of View (UFOV at 5 and 11 am during sleep deprivation. Effects of sleep deprivation on SDLP correlated significantly with performance changes in the PVT and the DAT, but not with performance changes in the UFOV.From the psychometric tests used in this study, the PVT and DAT seem most promising for initial evaluation of drug impairment based on sensitivity and correlations with driving impairment. Further studies are needed to assess the sensitivity and validity of these psychometric tests after benchmark sedative drug use.

  2. Validation of different measures of insulin sensitivity of glucose metabolism in dairy cows using the hyperinsulinemic euglycemic clamp test as the gold standard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Koster, J; Hostens, M; Hermans, K; Van den Broeck, W; Opsomer, G

    2016-10-01

    The aim of the present research was to compare different measures of insulin sensitivity in dairy cows at the end of the dry period. To do so, 10 clinically healthy dairy cows with a varying body condition score were selected. By performing hyperinsulinemic euglycemic clamp (HEC) tests, we previously demonstrated a negative association between the insulin sensitivity and insulin responsiveness of glucose metabolism and the body condition score of these animals. In the same animals, other measures of insulin sensitivity were determined and the correlation with the HEC test, which is considered as the gold standard, was calculated. Measures derived from the intravenous glucose tolerance test (IVGTT) are based on the disappearance of glucose after an intravenous glucose bolus. Glucose concentrations during the IVGTT were used to calculate the area under the curve of glucose and the clearance rate of glucose. In addition, glucose and insulin data from the IVGTT were fitted in the minimal model to derive the insulin sensitivity parameter, Si. Based on blood samples taken before the start of the IVGTT, basal concentrations of glucose, insulin, NEFA, and β-hydroxybutyrate were determined and used to calculate surrogate indices for insulin sensitivity, such as the homeostasis model of insulin resistance, the quantitative insulin sensitivity check index, the revised quantitative insulin sensitivity check index and the revised quantitative insulin sensitivity check index including β-hydroxybutyrate. Correlation analysis revealed no association between the results obtained by the HEC test and any of the surrogate indices for insulin sensitivity. For the measures derived from the IVGTT, the area under the curve for the first 60 min of the test and the Si derived from the minimal model demonstrated good correlation with the gold standard. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. An integrated electrochemical device based on immunochromatographic test strip and enzyme labels for sensitive detection of disease-related biomarkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Zhe-Xiang; Wang, Jun; Wang, Hua; Li, Yao-Qun; Lin, Yuehe

    2012-05-30

    A novel electrochemical biosensing device that integrates an immunochromatographic test strip and a screen-printed electrode (SPE) connected to a portable electrochemical analyzer was presented for rapid, sensitive, and quantitative detection of disease-related biomarker in human blood samples. The principle of the sensor is based on sandwich immunoreactions between a biomarker and a pair of its antibodies on the test strip, followed by highly sensitive square-wave voltammetry (SWV) detection. Horseradish peroxidase (HRP) was used as a signal reporter for electrochemical readout. Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) was employed as a model protein biomarker to demonstrate the analytical performance of the sensor in this study. Some critical parameters governing the performance of the sensor were investigated in detail. Under optimal conditions, this sensor was capable of detecting a minimum of 0.3 ng mL(-1) (S/N=3) HBsAg with a wide linear concentration range from 1 to 500 ng mL(-1). The sensor was further utilized to detect HBsAg spiked in human plasma with an average recovery of 91.3%. In comparison, a colorimetric immunochromatographic test strip assay (ITSA) was also conducted. The result shows that the SWV detection in the electrochemical sensor is much more sensitive for the quantitative determination of HBsAg than the colorimetric detection, indicating that such a sensor is a promising platform for rapid and sensitive point-of-care testing/screening of disease-related biomarkers in a large population. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Position-sensitive transition edge sensor modeling and results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hammock, Christina E-mail: chammock@milkyway.gsfc.nasa.gov; Figueroa-Feliciano, Enectali; Apodaca, Emmanuel; Bandler, Simon; Boyce, Kevin; Chervenak, Jay; Finkbeiner, Fred; Kelley, Richard; Lindeman, Mark; Porter, Scott; Saab, Tarek; Stahle, Caroline

    2004-03-11

    We report the latest design and experimental results for a Position-Sensitive Transition-Edge Sensor (PoST). The PoST is motivated by the desire to achieve a larger field-of-view without increasing the number of readout channels. A PoST consists of a one-dimensional array of X-ray absorbers connected on each end to a Transition Edge Sensor (TES). Position differentiation is achieved through a comparison of pulses between the two TESs and X-ray energy is inferred from a sum of the two signals. Optimizing such a device involves studying the available parameter space which includes device properties such as heat capacity and thermal conductivity as well as TES read-out circuitry parameters. We present results for different regimes of operation and the effects on energy resolution, throughput, and position differentiation. Results and implications from a non-linear model developed to study the saturation effects unique to PoSTs are also presented.

  5. Feedbacks, climate sensitivity, and the limits of linear models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rugenstein, M.; Knutti, R.

    2015-12-01

    The term "feedback" is used ubiquitously in climate research, but implies varied meanings in different contexts. From a specific process that locally affects a quantity, to a formal framework that attempts to determine a global response to a forcing, researchers use this term to separate, simplify, and quantify parts of the complex Earth system. We combine large (>120 member) ensemble GCM and EMIC step forcing simulations over a broad range of forcing levels with a historical and educational perspective to organize existing ideas around feedbacks and linear forcing-feedback models. With a new method overcoming internal variability and initial condition problems we quantify the non-constancy of the climate feedback parameter. Our results suggest a strong state- and forcing-dependency of feedbacks, which is not considered appropriately in many studies. A non-constant feedback factor likely explains some of the differences in estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity from different methods and types of data. We discuss implications for the definition of the forcing term and its various adjustments. Clarifying the value and applicability of the linear forcing feedback framework and a better quantification of feedbacks on various timescales and spatial scales remains a high priority in order to better understand past and predict future changes in the climate system.

  6. An improved lake model for climate simulations: Model structure, evaluation, and sensitivity analyses in CESM1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zachary Subin

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Lakes can influence regional climate, yet most general circulation models have, at best, simple and largely untested representations of lakes. We developed the Lake, Ice, Snow, and Sediment Simulator(LISSS for inclusion in the land-surface component (CLM4 of an earth system model (CESM1. The existing CLM4 lake modelperformed poorly at all sites tested; for temperate lakes, summer surface water temperature predictions were 10–25uC lower than observations. CLM4-LISSS modifies the existing model by including (1 a treatment of snow; (2 freezing, melting, and ice physics; (3 a sediment thermal submodel; (4 spatially variable prescribed lakedepth; (5 improved parameterizations of lake surface properties; (6 increased mixing under ice and in deep lakes; and (7 correction of previous errors. We evaluated the lake model predictions of water temperature and surface fluxes at three small temperate and boreal lakes where extensive observational data was available. We alsoevaluated the predicted water temperature and/or ice and snow thicknesses for ten other lakes where less comprehensive forcing observations were available. CLM4-LISSS performed very well compared to observations for shallow to medium-depth small lakes. For large, deep lakes, the under-prediction of mixing was improved by increasing the lake eddy diffusivity by a factor of 10, consistent with previouspublished analyses. Surface temperature and surface flux predictions were improved when the aerodynamic roughness lengths were calculated as a function of friction velocity, rather than using a constant value of 1 mm or greater. We evaluated the sensitivity of surface energy fluxes to modeled lake processes and parameters. Largechanges in monthly-averaged surface fluxes (up to 30 W m22 were found when excluding snow insulation or phase change physics and when varying the opacity, depth, albedo of melting lake ice, and mixing strength across ranges commonly found in real lakes. Typical

  7. Sex and smoking sensitive model of radon induced lung cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhukovsky, M.; Yarmoshenko, I.

    2006-01-01

    Radon and radon progeny inhalation exposure are recognized to cause lung cancer. Only strong evidence of radon exposure health effects was results of epidemiological studies among underground miners. Any single epidemiological study among population failed to find reliable lung cancer risk due to indoor radon exposure. Indoor radon induced lung cancer risk models were developed exclusively basing on extrapolation of miners data. Meta analyses of indoor radon and lung cancer case control studies allowed only little improvements in approaches to radon induced lung cancer risk projections. Valuable data on characteristics of indoor radon health effects could be obtained after systematic analysis of pooled data from single residential radon studies. Two such analyses are recently published. Available new and previous data of epidemiological studies of workers and general population exposed to radon and other sources of ionizing radiation allow filling gaps in knowledge of lung cancer association with indoor radon exposure. The model of lung cancer induced by indoor radon exposure is suggested. The key point of this model is the assumption that excess relative risk depends on both sex and smoking habits of individual. This assumption based on data on occupational exposure by radon and plutonium and also on the data on external radiation exposure in Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the data on external exposure in Mayak nuclear facility. For non-corrected data of pooled European and North American studies the increased sensitivity of females to radon exposure is observed. The mean value of ks for non-corrected data obtained from independent source is in very good agreement with the L.S.S. study and Mayak plutonium workers data. Analysis of corrected data of pooled studies showed little influence of sex on E.R.R. value. The most probable cause of such effect is the change of men/women and smokers/nonsmokers ratios in corrected data sets in North American study. More correct

  8. Touch-sensitive colour graphics enhance monitoring of loss-of-coolant accident tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Snedden, M.D.; Mead, G.L.

    1982-01-01

    A stand-alone computer-based system with an intelligent colour termimal is described for monitoring parameters during loss-of-coolant accident tests. Colour graphic displays and touch-sensitive control have been combined for effective operator interaction. Data collected by the host MODCOMP II minicomputer are dynamically updated on colour pictures generated by the terminal. Experimenters select system functions by touching simulated switches on a transparent touch-sensitive overlay, mounted directly over the face of the colour screen, eliminating the need for a keyboard. Switch labels and colours are changed on the screen by the terminal software as different functions are selected. Interaction is self-prompting and can be learned quickly. System operation for a complete set of 20 tests has demonstrated the convenience of interactive touchsensitive colour graphics

  9. Detection of recent holding of firearms: improving the sensitivity of the PDT test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almog, Joseph; Bar-Or, Karni L; Leifer, Amihud; Delbar, Yair; Harush-Brosh, Yinon

    2014-08-01

    Despite the significant improvement of the PDT test for detecting recent contact with firearms, there are still many occasions in which the modified reagent (Ferrotrace™) shows insufficient sensitivity. Two techniques have been devised and tested for the enhancement of the sensitivity of this process: exposure to water vapors and accelerated sweating. Exposure of the hand to water vapors after spraying with the reagent significantly improved the quality of the colored impressions. The average increase was by 1 quality-grade (on an arbitrary scale of 4 grades). The technique is very simple and does not require any particular skill or equipment. Mechanistic aspects of the process are also discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Tracer SWIW tests in propped and un-propped fractures: parameter sensitivity issues, revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghergut, Julia; Behrens, Horst; Sauter, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Single-well injection-withdrawal (SWIW) or 'push-then-pull' tracer methods appear attractive for a number of reasons: less uncertainty on design and dimensioning, and lower tracer quantities required than for inter-well tests; stronger tracer signals, enabling easier and cheaper metering, and shorter metering duration required, reaching higher tracer mass recovery than in inter-well tests; last not least: no need for a second well. However, SWIW tracer signal inversion faces a major issue: the 'push-then-pull' design weakens the correlation between tracer residence times and georeservoir transport parameters, inducing insensitivity or ambiguity of tracer signal inversion w. r. to some of those georeservoir parameters that are supposed to be the target of tracer tests par excellence: pore velocity, transport-effective porosity, fracture or fissure aperture and spacing or density (where applicable), fluid/solid or fluid/fluid phase interface density. Hydraulic methods cannot measure the transport-effective values of such parameters, because pressure signals correlate neither with fluid motion, nor with material fluxes through (fluid-rock, or fluid-fluid) phase interfaces. The notorious ambiguity impeding parameter inversion from SWIW test signals has nourished several 'modeling attitudes': (i) regard dispersion as the key process encompassing whatever superposition of underlying transport phenomena, and seek a statistical description of flow-path collectives enabling to characterize dispersion independently of any other transport parameter, as proposed by Gouze et al. (2008), with Hansen et al. (2016) offering a comprehensive analysis of the various ways dispersion model assumptions interfere with parameter inversion from SWIW tests; (ii) regard diffusion as the key process, and seek for a large-time, asymptotically advection-independent regime in the measured tracer signals (Haggerty et al. 2001), enabling a dispersion-independent characterization of multiple

  11. Strain rate sensitivity of the tensile strength of two silicon carbides: experimental evidence and micromechanical modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zinszner, Jean-Luc; Erzar, Benjamin; Forquin, Pascal

    2017-01-28

    Ceramic materials are commonly used to design multi-layer armour systems thanks to their favourable physical and mechanical properties. However, during an impact event, fragmentation of the ceramic plate inevitably occurs due to its inherent brittleness under tensile loading. Consequently, an accurate model of the fragmentation process is necessary in order to achieve an optimum design for a desired armour configuration. In this work, shockless spalling tests have been performed on two silicon carbide grades at strain rates ranging from 10 3 to 10 4  s -1 using a high-pulsed power generator. These spalling tests characterize the tensile strength strain rate sensitivity of each ceramic grade. The microstructural properties of the ceramics appear to play an important role on the strain rate sensitivity and on the dynamic tensile strength. Moreover, this experimental configuration allows for recovering damaged, but unbroken specimens, giving unique insight on the fragmentation process initiated in the ceramics. All the collected data have been compared with corresponding results of numerical simulations performed using the Denoual-Forquin-Hild anisotropic damage model. Good agreement is observed between numerical simulations and experimental data in terms of free surface velocity, size and location of the damaged zones along with crack density in these damaged zones.This article is part of the themed issue 'Experimental testing and modelling of brittle materials at high strain rates'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  12. Strain rate sensitivity of the tensile strength of two silicon carbides: experimental evidence and micromechanical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erzar, Benjamin

    2017-01-01

    Ceramic materials are commonly used to design multi-layer armour systems thanks to their favourable physical and mechanical properties. However, during an impact event, fragmentation of the ceramic plate inevitably occurs due to its inherent brittleness under tensile loading. Consequently, an accurate model of the fragmentation process is necessary in order to achieve an optimum design for a desired armour configuration. In this work, shockless spalling tests have been performed on two silicon carbide grades at strain rates ranging from 103 to 104 s−1 using a high-pulsed power generator. These spalling tests characterize the tensile strength strain rate sensitivity of each ceramic grade. The microstructural properties of the ceramics appear to play an important role on the strain rate sensitivity and on the dynamic tensile strength. Moreover, this experimental configuration allows for recovering damaged, but unbroken specimens, giving unique insight on the fragmentation process initiated in the ceramics. All the collected data have been compared with corresponding results of numerical simulations performed using the Denoual–Forquin–Hild anisotropic damage model. Good agreement is observed between numerical simulations and experimental data in terms of free surface velocity, size and location of the damaged zones along with crack density in these damaged zones. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Experimental testing and modelling of brittle materials at high strain rates’. PMID:27956504

  13. Strain rate sensitivity of the tensile strength of two silicon carbides: experimental evidence and micromechanical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zinszner, Jean-Luc; Erzar, Benjamin; Forquin, Pascal

    2017-01-01

    Ceramic materials are commonly used to design multi-layer armour systems thanks to their favourable physical and mechanical properties. However, during an impact event, fragmentation of the ceramic plate inevitably occurs due to its inherent brittleness under tensile loading. Consequently, an accurate model of the fragmentation process is necessary in order to achieve an optimum design for a desired armour configuration. In this work, shockless spalling tests have been performed on two silicon carbide grades at strain rates ranging from 103 to 104 s-1 using a high-pulsed power generator. These spalling tests characterize the tensile strength strain rate sensitivity of each ceramic grade. The microstructural properties of the ceramics appear to play an important role on the strain rate sensitivity and on the dynamic tensile strength. Moreover, this experimental configuration allows for recovering damaged, but unbroken specimens, giving unique insight on the fragmentation process initiated in the ceramics. All the collected data have been compared with corresponding results of numerical simulations performed using the Denoual-Forquin-Hild anisotropic damage model. Good agreement is observed between numerical simulations and experimental data in terms of free surface velocity, size and location of the damaged zones along with crack density in these damaged zones. This article is part of the themed issue 'Experimental testing and modelling of brittle materials at high strain rates'.

  14. Observation-Based Modeling for Model-Based Testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kanstrén, T.; Piel, E.; Gross, H.G.

    2009-01-01

    One of the single most important reasons that modeling and modelbased testing are not yet common practice in industry is the perceived difficulty of making the models up to the level of detail and quality required for their automated processing. Models unleash their full potential only through

  15. Identification of neutron irradiation induced strain rate sensitivity change using inverse FEM analysis of Charpy test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haušild, Petr; Materna, Aleš; Kytka, Miloš

    2015-04-01

    A simple methodology how to obtain additional information about the mechanical behaviour of neutron-irradiated WWER 440 reactor pressure vessel steel was developed. Using inverse identification, the instrumented Charpy test data records were compared with the finite element computations in order to estimate the strain rate sensitivity of 15Ch2MFA steel irradiated with different neutron fluences. The results are interpreted in terms of activation volume change.

  16. Identification of neutron irradiation induced strain rate sensitivity change using inverse FEM analysis of Charpy test

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haušild, Petr, E-mail: petr.hausild@fjfi.cvut.cz [Czech Technical University in Prague, Faculty of Nuclear Sciences and Physical Engineering, Department of Materials, Trojanova 13, 120 00 Praha 2 (Czech Republic); Materna, Aleš [Czech Technical University in Prague, Faculty of Nuclear Sciences and Physical Engineering, Department of Materials, Trojanova 13, 120 00 Praha 2 (Czech Republic); Kytka, Miloš [Czech Technical University in Prague, Faculty of Nuclear Sciences and Physical Engineering, Department of Materials, Trojanova 13, 120 00 Praha 2 (Czech Republic); Nuclear Research Institut, ÚJV Řež, a.s., Hlavní 130, Řež, 250 68 Husinec (Czech Republic)

    2015-04-15

    A simple methodology how to obtain additional information about the mechanical behaviour of neutron-irradiated WWER 440 reactor pressure vessel steel was developed. Using inverse identification, the instrumented Charpy test data records were compared with the finite element computations in order to estimate the strain rate sensitivity of 15Ch2MFA steel irradiated with different neutron fluences. The results are interpreted in terms of activation volume change.

  17. Kinematic tests of exotic flat cosmological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charlton, J.C.; Turner, M.S.; NASA/Fermilab Astrophysics Center, Batavia, IL)

    1987-01-01

    Theoretical prejudice and inflationary models of the very early universe strongly favor the flat, Einstein-de Sitter model of the universe. At present the observational data conflict with this prejudice. This conflict can be resolved by considering flat models of the universe which posses a smooth component of energy density. The kinematics of such models, where the smooth component is relativistic particles, a cosmological term, a network of light strings, or fast-moving, light strings is studied in detail. The observational tests which can be used to discriminate between these models are also discussed. These tests include the magnitude-redshift, lookback time-redshift, angular size-redshift, and comoving volume-redshift diagrams and the growth of density fluctuations. 58 references

  18. Kinematic tests of exotic flat cosmological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charlton, J.C.; Turner, M.S.

    1986-05-01

    Theoretical prejudice and inflationary models of the very early Universe strongly favor the flat, Einstein-deSitter model of the Universe. At present the observational data conflict with this prejudice. This conflict can be resolved by considering flat models of the Universe which possess a smooth component by energy density. We study in detail the kinematics of such models, where the smooth component is relativistic particles, a cosmological term, a network of light strings, or fast-moving, light strings. We also discuss the observational tests which can be used to discriminate between these models. These tests include the magnitude-redshift, lookback time-redshift, angular size-redshift, and comoving volume-redshift diagrams and the growth of density fluctuations

  19. Reliability and sensitivity of a simple isometric posterior lower limb muscle test in professional football players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCall, Alan; Nedelec, Mathieu; Carling, Christopher; Le Gall, Franck; Berthoin, Serge; Dupont, Gregory

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed (1) to determine the reliability of a simple and quick test to assess isometric posterior lower limb muscle force in professional football players and (2) verify its sensitivity to detect reductions in force following a competitive match. Twenty-nine professional football players performed a 3-s maximal isometric contraction of the posterior lower limb muscles for both legs with players lying supine. Both legs were tested using a knee angle of 90° and 30° measured on a force plate. Players were tested twice with one week between sessions to verify reliability. Sensitivity was tested following a full competitive football match. The test showed high reliability for dominant leg at 90° (CV = 4.3%, ICC = 0.95, ES = 0.15), non-dominant leg at 90° (CV = 5.4%, ICC = 0.95, ES = 0.14), and non-dominant leg at 30° (CV = 4.8%, ICC = 0.93, ES = 0.30) and good reliability for dominant leg at 30° (CV = 6.3%, ICC = 0.86, ES = 0.05). The measure was sensitive enough to detect reductions in force for dominant leg at 90° (P = 0.0006, ES > 1), non-dominant leg at 90° (P = 0.0142, ES = 1), and non-dominant leg at 30° (P = 0.0064, ES > 1) and for dominant leg at 30° (P = 0.0016, ES > 1). In conclusion, the present test represents a useful and practical field tool to determine the magnitude of match-induced fatigue of the posterior lower limb muscles and potentially to track their recovery.

  20. Prospective analysis of human leukocyte functional tests reveals metal sensitivity in patients with hip implant

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background The aim of the study was to examine the reactivity of peripheral human leukocytes to various metal ions prior and following hip replacement in order to investigate implant-induced metal sensitivity. Methods Three patient groups were set up: (1) individuals without implants and no history of metal allergy (7 cases), (2) individuals without implants and known history of metal allergy (7 cases), and (3) patients undergoing cementless hip replacement (40 cases). Blood samples were taken in groups 1 and 2 at three different occasions; in group 3, prior and 3, 6, 12, 24, and 36 months after surgery. Peripheral leukocytes were separated and left either untreated or challenged with Ti, NiCl2, CoCl2, CrCl3, and phytohemagglutinin. Cell proliferation, cytokine release, and leukocyte migration inhibition assays were performed. Metal-induced reactivity was considered when all three assays showed significant change. Skin patch tests were also carried out. Results Both skin patch tests and leukocyte functional tests were negative in group 1, and both were positive in group 2. In group 3, after 6 months, 12% of the patients showed reactivity to the tested metals except for NiCl2. Following the 36-month period, 18% of group three became sensitive to metals (including all the earlier 12%). In contrast, patch tests were negative at each time point in group 3. Conclusions Orthopedic implant material may induce metal reactivity after implantation in a manner where susceptibility is yet to be elucidated. Leukocyte triple assay technique might be a useful tool to test implant material-related sensitivity. PMID:23680415

  1. Laboratory measurements and model sensitivity studies of dust deposition ice nucleation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Kulkarni

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the ice nucleating properties of mineral dust particles to understand the sensitivity of simulated cloud properties to two different representations of contact angle in the Classical Nucleation Theory (CNT. These contact angle representations are based on two sets of laboratory deposition ice nucleation measurements: Arizona Test Dust (ATD particles of 100, 300 and 500 nm sizes were tested at three different temperatures (−25, −30 and −35 °C, and 400 nm ATD and kaolinite dust species were tested at two different temperatures (−30 and −35 °C. These measurements were used to derive the onset relative humidity with respect to ice (RHice required to activate 1% of dust particles as ice nuclei, from which the onset single contact angles were then calculated based on CNT. For the probability density function (PDF representation, parameters of the log-normal contact angle distribution were determined by fitting CNT-predicted activated fraction to the measurements at different RHice. Results show that onset single contact angles vary from ~18 to 24 degrees, while the PDF parameters are sensitive to the measurement conditions (i.e. temperature and dust size. Cloud modeling simulations were performed to understand the sensitivity of cloud properties (i.e. ice number concentration, ice water content, and cloud initiation times to the representation of contact angle and PDF distribution parameters. The model simulations show that cloud properties are sensitive to onset single contact angles and PDF distribution parameters. The comparison of our experimental results with other studies shows that under similar measurement conditions the onset single contact angles are consistent within ±2.0 degrees, while our derived PDF parameters have larger discrepancies.

  2. Pain sensitivity of children with Down syndrome and their siblings: quantitative sensory testing versus parental reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valkenburg, Abraham J; Tibboel, Dick; van Dijk, Monique

    2015-11-01

    The aim of this study was to compare thermal detection and pain thresholds in children with Down syndrome with those of their siblings. Sensory detection and pain thresholds were assessed in children with Down syndrome and their siblings using quantitative testing methods. Parental questionnaires addressing developmental age, pain coping, pain behaviour, and chronic pain were also utilized. Forty-two children with Down syndrome (mean age 12y 10mo) and 24 siblings (mean age 15y) participated in this observational study. The different sensory tests proved feasible in 13 to 29 (33-88%) of the children with Down syndrome. These children were less sensitive to cold and warmth than their siblings, but only when measured with a reaction time-dependent method, and not with a reaction time-independent method. Children with Down syndrome were more sensitive to heat pain, and only 6 (14%) of them were able to adequately self-report pain, compared with 22 (92%) of siblings (pChildren with Down syndrome will remain dependent on pain assessment by proxy, since self-reporting is not adequate. Parents believe that their children with Down syndrome are less sensitive to pain than their siblings, but this was not confirmed by quantitative sensory testing. © 2015 Mac Keith Press.

  3. Molecular Sieve Bench Testing and Computer Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamadinejad, Habib; DaLee, Robert C.; Blackmon, James B.

    1995-01-01

    The design of an efficient four-bed molecular sieve (4BMS) CO2 removal system for the International Space Station depends on many mission parameters, such as duration, crew size, cost of power, volume, fluid interface properties, etc. A need for space vehicle CO2 removal system models capable of accurately performing extrapolated hardware predictions is inevitable due to the change of the parameters which influences the CO2 removal system capacity. The purpose is to investigate the mathematical techniques required for a model capable of accurate extrapolated performance predictions and to obtain test data required to estimate mass transfer coefficients and verify the computer model. Models have been developed to demonstrate that the finite difference technique can be successfully applied to sorbents and conditions used in spacecraft CO2 removal systems. The nonisothermal, axially dispersed, plug flow model with linear driving force for 5X sorbent and pore diffusion for silica gel are then applied to test data. A more complex model, a non-darcian model (two dimensional), has also been developed for simulation of the test data. This model takes into account the channeling effect on column breakthrough. Four FORTRAN computer programs are presented: a two-dimensional model of flow adsorption/desorption in a packed bed; a one-dimensional model of flow adsorption/desorption in a packed bed; a model of thermal vacuum desorption; and a model of a tri-sectional packed bed with two different sorbent materials. The programs are capable of simulating up to four gas constituents for each process, which can be increased with a few minor changes.

  4. Development of a new low cost high sensitivity system for behavioural ecotoxicity testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Chris Lloyd; Shukla, Deepa H; Compton, Graham J

    2006-05-01

    The amphipod Gammarus pulex has been extensively used for ecotoxicological studies. However, the tests used are either labourious to perform and/or require relatively expensive equipment. We report the development of a new low cost infra red actograph system that measures relative activity, and can detect the behavioural effects of very low concentrations of heavy metals. Trials demonstrated that the home built system can distinguish significantly different behaviour between G. pulex exposed to clean water and that contaminated with as low as 10 microg L(-1) copper. This highly sensitive low cost automated system has the potential to become an important tool for ecotoxicity testing and water quality monitoring.

  5. A 'Turing' Test for Landscape Evolution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, A. J.; Wise, S. M.; Wainwright, J.; Swift, D. A.

    2008-12-01

    Resolving the interactions among tectonics, climate and surface processes at long timescales has benefited from the development of computer models of landscape evolution. However, testing these Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) has been piecemeal and partial. We argue that a more systematic approach is required. What is needed is a test that will establish how 'realistic' an LEM is and thus the extent to which its predictions may be trusted. We propose a test based upon the Turing Test of artificial intelligence as a way forward. In 1950 Alan Turing posed the question of whether a machine could think. Rather than attempt to address the question directly he proposed a test in which an interrogator asked questions of a person and a machine, with no means of telling which was which. If the machine's answer could not be distinguished from those of the human, the machine could be said to demonstrate artificial intelligence. By analogy, if an LEM cannot be distinguished from a real landscape it can be deemed to be realistic. The Turing test of intelligence is a test of the way in which a computer behaves. The analogy in the case of an LEM is that it should show realistic behaviour in terms of form and process, both at a given moment in time (punctual) and in the way both form and process evolve over time (dynamic). For some of these behaviours, tests already exist. For example there are numerous morphometric tests of punctual form and measurements of punctual process. The test discussed in this paper provides new ways of assessing dynamic behaviour of an LEM over realistically long timescales. However challenges remain in developing an appropriate suite of challenging tests, in applying these tests to current LEMs and in developing LEMs that pass them.

  6. Simple Numerical Model to Simulate Penetration Testing in Unsaturated Soils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jarast S. Pegah

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Cone penetration test in unsaturated sand is modelled numerically using Finite Element Method. Simple elastic-perfectly plastic Mohr-Coulomb constitutive model is modified with an apparent cohesion to incorporate the effect of suction on cone resistance. The Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE remeshing algorithm is also implemented to avoid mesh distortion problem due to the large deformation in the soil around the cone tip. The simulated models indicate that the cone resistance was increased consistently under higher suction or lower degree of saturation. Sensitivity analysis investigating the effect of input soil parameters on the cone tip resistance shows that unsaturated soil condition can be adequately modelled by incorporating the apparent cohesion concept. However, updating the soil stiffness by including a suction-dependent effective stress formula in Mohr-Coulomb material model does not influence the cone resistance significantly.

  7. Sensitivity analysis for models of greenhouse gas emissions at farm level. Case study of N2O emissions simulated by the CERES-EGC model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drouet, J.-L.; Capian, N.; Fiorelli, J.-L.; Blanfort, V.; Capitaine, M.; Duretz, S.; Gabrielle, B.; Martin, R.; Lardy, R.; Cellier, P.; Soussana, J.-F.

    2011-01-01

    Modelling complex systems such as farms often requires quantification of a large number of input factors. Sensitivity analyses are useful to reduce the number of input factors that are required to be measured or estimated accurately. Three methods of sensitivity analysis (the Morris method, the rank regression and correlation method and the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test method) were compared in the case of the CERES-EGC model applied to crops of a dairy farm. The qualitative Morris method provided a screening of the input factors. The two other quantitative methods were used to investigate more thoroughly the effects of input factors on output variables. Despite differences in terms of concepts and assumptions, the three methods provided similar results. Among the 44 factors under study, N 2 O emissions were mainly sensitive to the fraction of N 2 O emitted during denitrification, the maximum rate of nitrification, the soil bulk density and the cropland area. - Highlights: → Three methods of sensitivity analysis were compared in the case of a soil-crop model. → The qualitative Morris method provided a screening of the input factors. → The quantitative EFAST method provided a thorough analysis of the input factors. → The three methods provided similar results regarding sensitivity of N 2 O emissions. → N 2 O emissions were mainly sensitive to a few, especially four, input factors. - Three methods of sensitivity analysis were compared to analyse their efficiency in assessing the sensitivity of a complex soil-crop model to its input factors.

  8. A robust hypothesis test for the sensitive detection of constant speed radiation moving sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dumazert, Jonathan, E-mail: jonathan.dumazert@cea.fr [CEA, LIST, Laboratoire Capteurs Architectures Electroniques, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Coulon, Romain; Kondrasovs, Vladimir; Boudergui, Karim; Moline, Yoann; Sannié, Guillaume; Gameiro, Jordan; Normand, Stéphane [CEA, LIST, Laboratoire Capteurs Architectures Electroniques, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Méchin, Laurence [CNRS, UCBN, Groupe de Recherche en Informatique, Image, Automatique et Instrumentation de Caen, 14050 Caen (France)

    2015-09-21

    Radiation Portal Monitors are deployed in linear networks to detect radiological material in motion. As a complement to single and multichannel detection algorithms, inefficient under too low signal-to-noise ratios, temporal correlation algorithms have been introduced. Test hypothesis methods based on empirically estimated mean and variance of the signals delivered by the different channels have shown significant gain in terms of a tradeoff between detection sensitivity and false alarm probability. This paper discloses the concept of a new hypothesis test for temporal correlation detection methods, taking advantage of the Poisson nature of the registered counting signals, and establishes a benchmark between this test and its empirical counterpart. The simulation study validates that in the four relevant configurations of a pedestrian source carrier under respectively high and low count rate radioactive backgrounds, and a vehicle source carrier under the same respectively high and low count rate radioactive backgrounds, the newly introduced hypothesis test ensures a significantly improved compromise between sensitivity and false alarm. It also guarantees that the optimal coverage factor for this compromise remains stable regardless of signal-to-noise ratio variations between 2 and 0.8, therefore allowing the final user to parametrize the test with the sole prior knowledge of background amplitude.

  9. A robust hypothesis test for the sensitive detection of constant speed radiation moving sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumazert, Jonathan; Coulon, Romain; Kondrasovs, Vladimir; Boudergui, Karim; Moline, Yoann; Sannié, Guillaume; Gameiro, Jordan; Normand, Stéphane; Méchin, Laurence

    2015-01-01

    Radiation Portal Monitors are deployed in linear networks to detect radiological material in motion. As a complement to single and multichannel detection algorithms, inefficient under too low signal-to-noise ratios, temporal correlation algorithms have been introduced. Test hypothesis methods based on empirically estimated mean and variance of the signals delivered by the different channels have shown significant gain in terms of a tradeoff between detection sensitivity and false alarm probability. This paper discloses the concept of a new hypothesis test for temporal correlation detection methods, taking advantage of the Poisson nature of the registered counting signals, and establishes a benchmark between this test and its empirical counterpart. The simulation study validates that in the four relevant configurations of a pedestrian source carrier under respectively high and low count rate radioactive backgrounds, and a vehicle source carrier under the same respectively high and low count rate radioactive backgrounds, the newly introduced hypothesis test ensures a significantly improved compromise between sensitivity and false alarm. It also guarantees that the optimal coverage factor for this compromise remains stable regardless of signal-to-noise ratio variations between 2 and 0.8, therefore allowing the final user to parametrize the test with the sole prior knowledge of background amplitude

  10. Parameter sensitivity and identifiability for a biogeochemical model of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Local sensitivity analyses and identifiable parameter subsets were used to describe numerical constraints of a hypoxia model for bottom waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The sensitivity of state variables differed considerably with parameter changes, although most variables ...

  11. Re-evaluating the sensitivity of the rabbit infectivity test for Treponema pallidum in modern era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Man-Li; Zhang, Hui-Lin; Zhu, Xiao-Zhen; Fan, Jin-Yi; Gao, Kun; Lin, Li-Rong; Liu, Li-Li; Li, Shu-Lian; Lin, Hui-Ling; Lin, Zhi-Feng; Niu, Jian-Jun; Zheng, Wei-Hong; Yang, Tian-Ci

    2017-01-01

    The rabbit infectivity test (RIT) was previously described as a highly-sensitive method for clinically detecting Treponema pallidum. But our primary study indicated this result may have changed in current antibiotics era. By inoculating rabbits testis with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) (n=63) and exudate from hard chancre lesions (n=13), we re-evaluated the sensitivity of RIT in modern era. All isolated T. pallidum strains from the RIT were performed for the strain type based on "CDC subtype/tp0548" method. Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests were used to determine the statistical significance of differences across data sets. Result indicated that 2 of 63 CSF (2/63, 3.17%) and 5 of 13 lesion exudate samples (5/13, 38.47%) were positive in the RIT, with a much longer time to detection for CSF samples. Only 1 of 28 samples from patients who admitted treatment with antibiotics prior to clinical exam was positive in the RIT; while 6 of 48 patients, who admitted no recent exposure to antibiotics or was unclear about the medical history, were positive in RIT. DNA sequence analysis revealed 6 strains of 14d/f subtype and one strain of 14a/f subtype. In conclusions, RIT is no longer a highly sensitive method for detecting T. pallidum in clinical samples as before, and is not inadequately considered to be a reference method for measuring the sensitivity of other new methods, such as the PCR. These data represent the first reexamination of the sensitivity of RIT in the post-antibiotic era with a large clinical sample. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  12. Revisiting the Role of Potassium Sensitivity Testing and Cystoscopic Hydrodistention for the Diagnosis of Interstitial Cystitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yuan-Hong; Jhang, Jia-Fong; Kuo, Hann-Chorng

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To revisit the diagnostic roles of cystoscopic hydrodistention and the potassium sensitivity test (PST) for the diagnosis of interstitial cystitis (IC). Methods We prospectively enrolled 214 patients clinically diagnosed with IC, 125 non-IC patients who underwent video urodynamic studies and PST, and another 144 non-IC patients who underwent cystoscopic hydrodistention before transurethral surgery. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for the PST and glomerulations after cystoscopic hydrodistention. Results After cystoscopic hydrodistention, glomerulations developed in 211/214 (98.6%) IC patients and 61/144 (42.4%) of the non-IC patients including patients with stones (45/67, 67%), hematuria (2/5, 40%), and stress urinary incontinence (SUI) (6/17, 35%). When positive glomerulation was defined as grade 2 or more, the sensitivity was 61.7%. The PST was positive in 183/214 (85.5%) IC patients and 7/17 (41%) with hypersensitive bladder, 7/32 (22%) with detrusor overactivity, 5/27 (18%) with SUI, 2/21 (10%) with lower urinary tract symptoms, and 2/25 (8%) with bladder outlet obstruction. The PST had a sensitivity of 85.5% and a specificity of 81.6% for diagnosis of IC. IC patients with a positive PST had a significantly smaller urgency sensation capacity, smaller voided volume, and greater bladder pain score. Conclusions Both the PST and glomerulations after hydrodistention are sensitive indicators of IC, but the specificity of glomerulations in the diagnosis of IC is lower than that of the PST. A positive PST is associated with a more hypersensitive bladder and bladder pain, but not the grade of glomerulations in IC patients. Neither test provided 100% diagnostic accuracy for IC, we might select patients into different subgroups based on different PST and hydrodistention results, not for making a diagnosis of IC but for guidance of different treatments. PMID:26999787

  13. Revisiting the Role of Potassium Sensitivity Testing and Cystoscopic Hydrodistention for the Diagnosis of Interstitial Cystitis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan-Hong Jiang

    Full Text Available To revisit the diagnostic roles of cystoscopic hydrodistention and the potassium sensitivity test (PST for the diagnosis of interstitial cystitis (IC.We prospectively enrolled 214 patients clinically diagnosed with IC, 125 non-IC patients who underwent video urodynamic studies and PST, and another 144 non-IC patients who underwent cystoscopic hydrodistention before transurethral surgery. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for the PST and glomerulations after cystoscopic hydrodistention.After cystoscopic hydrodistention, glomerulations developed in 211/214 (98.6% IC patients and 61/144 (42.4% of the non-IC patients including patients with stones (45/67, 67%, hematuria (2/5, 40%, and stress urinary incontinence (SUI (6/17, 35%. When positive glomerulation was defined as grade 2 or more, the sensitivity was 61.7%. The PST was positive in 183/214 (85.5% IC patients and 7/17 (41% with hypersensitive bladder, 7/32 (22% with detrusor overactivity, 5/27 (18% with SUI, 2/21 (10% with lower urinary tract symptoms, and 2/25 (8% with bladder outlet obstruction. The PST had a sensitivity of 85.5% and a specificity of 81.6% for diagnosis of IC. IC patients with a positive PST had a significantly smaller urgency sensation capacity, smaller voided volume, and greater bladder pain score.Both the PST and glomerulations after hydrodistention are sensitive indicators of IC, but the specificity of glomerulations in the diagnosis of IC is lower than that of the PST. A positive PST is associated with a more hypersensitive bladder and bladder pain, but not the grade of glomerulations in IC patients. Neither test provided 100% diagnostic accuracy for IC, we might select patients into different subgroups based on different PST and hydrodistention results, not for making a diagnosis of IC but for guidance of different treatments.

  14. Dynamic sensitivity analysis of long running landslide models through basis set expansion and meta-modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohmer, Jeremy

    2016-04-01

    Predicting the temporal evolution of landslides is typically supported by numerical modelling. Dynamic sensitivity analysis aims at assessing the influence of the landslide properties on the time-dependent predictions (e.g., time series of landslide displacements). Yet two major difficulties arise: 1. Global sensitivity analysis require running the landslide model a high number of times (> 1000), which may become impracticable when the landslide model has a high computation time cost (> several hours); 2. Landslide model outputs are not scalar, but function of time, i.e. they are n-dimensional vectors with n usually ranging from 100 to 1000. In this article, I explore the use of a basis set expansion, such as principal component analysis, to reduce the output dimensionality to a few components, each of them being interpreted as a dominant mode of variation in the overall structure of the temporal evolution. The computationally intensive calculation of the Sobol' indices for each of these components are then achieved through meta-modelling, i.e. by replacing the landslide model by a "costless-to-evaluate" approximation (e.g., a projection pursuit regression model). The methodology combining "basis set expansion - meta-model - Sobol' indices" is then applied to the La Frasse landslide to investigate the dynamic sensitivity analysis of the surface horizontal displacements to the slip surface properties during the pore pressure changes. I show how to extract information on the sensitivity of each main modes of temporal behaviour using a limited number (a few tens) of long running simulations. In particular, I identify the parameters, which trigger the occurrence of a turning point marking a shift between a regime of low values of landslide displacements and one of high values.

  15. Validation of an iPad test of letter contrast sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kollbaum, Pete S; Jansen, Meredith E; Kollbaum, Elli J; Bullimore, Mark A

    2014-03-01

    An iPad-based letter contrast sensitivity test was developed (ridgevue.com) consisting of two letters on each page of an iBook. The contrast decreases from 80% (logCS = 0.1) to 0.5% (logCS = 2.3) by 0.1 log units per page. The test was compared to the Pelli-Robson Test and the Freiburg Acuity and Contrast Test. Twenty normally sighted subjects and 20 low-vision subjects were tested monocularly at 1 m using each test wearing their habitual correction. After a 5-minute break, subjects were retested with each test in reverse order. Two different letter charts were used for both the Pelli-Robson and iPad tests, and the order of testing was varied systematically. For the Freiburg test, the target was a variable contrast Landolt C presented at eight possible orientations and used a 30-trial Best PEST procedure. Repeatability and agreement were assessed by determining the 95% limits of agreement (LoA) ± 1.96 SD of the differences between administrations or tests. All three tests showed good repeatability in terms of the 95% LoA: iPad = ± 0.19, Pelli-Robson = ± 0.19, and Freiburg = ± 0.15. The iPad test showed good agreement with the Freiburg test with similar mean (± SD) logCS (iPad = 1.98 ± 0.11, Freiburg = 1.96 ± 0.06) and with narrow 95% LoA (± 0.24), but the Pelli-Robson test gave significantly lower values (1.65 ± 0.04). Low-vision subjects had slightly poorer repeatability (iPad = ± 0.24, Pelli-Robson = ± 0.23, Freiburg = ± 0.21). Agreement between the iPad and Freiburg tests was good (iPad = 1.45 ± 0.40, Freiburg = 1.54 ± 0.37), but the Pelli-Robson test gave significantly lower values (1.30 ± 0.30). The iPad test showed similar repeatability and may be a rapid and convenient alternative to some existing measures. The Pelli-Robson test gave lower values than the other tests.

  16. Accuracy tests of the tessellated SLBM model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramirez, A L; Myers, S C

    2007-01-01

    We have compared the Seismic Location Base Model (SLBM) tessellated model (version 2.0 Beta, posted July 3, 2007) with the GNEMRE Unified Model. The comparison is done on a layer/depth-by-layer/depth and layer/velocity-by-layer/velocity comparison. The SLBM earth model is defined on a tessellation that spans the globe at a constant resolution of about 1 degree (Ballard, 2007). For the tests, we used the earth model in file ''unified( ) iasp.grid''. This model contains the top 8 layers of the Unified Model (UM) embedded in a global IASP91 grid. Our test queried the same set of nodes included in the UM model file. To query the model stored in memory, we used some of the functionality built into the SLBMInterface object. We used the method get InterpolatedPoint() to return desired values for each layer at user-specified points. The values returned include: depth to the top of each layer, layer velocity, layer thickness and (for the upper-mantle layer) velocity gradient. The SLBM earth model has an extra middle crust layer whose values are used when Pg/Lg phases are being calculated. This extra layer was not accessed by our tests. Figures 1 to 8 compare the layer depths, P velocities and P gradients in the UM and SLBM models. The figures show results for the three sediment layers, three crustal layers and the upper mantle layer defined in the UM model. Each layer in the models (sediment1, sediment2, sediment3, upper crust, middle crust, lower crust and upper mantle) is shown on a separate figure. The upper mantle P velocity and gradient distribution are shown on Figures 7 and 8. The left and center images in the top row of each figure is the rendering of depth to the top of the specified layer for the UM and SLBM models. When a layer has zero thickness, its depth is the same as that of the layer above. The right image in the top row is the difference between in layer depth for the UM and SLBM renderings. The left and center images in the bottom row of the figures are

  17. Unit testing, model validation, and biological simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarma, Gopal P; Jacobs, Travis W; Watts, Mark D; Ghayoomie, S Vahid; Larson, Stephen D; Gerkin, Richard C

    2016-01-01

    The growth of the software industry has gone hand in hand with the development of tools and cultural practices for ensuring the reliability of complex pieces of software. These tools and practices are now acknowledged to be essential to the management of modern software. As computational models and methods have become increasingly common in the biological sciences, it is important to examine how these practices can accelerate biological software development and improve research quality. In this article, we give a focused case study of our experience with the practices of unit testing and test-driven development in OpenWorm, an open-science project aimed at modeling Caenorhabditis elegans. We identify and discuss the challenges of incorporating test-driven development into a heterogeneous, data-driven project, as well as the role of model validation tests, a category of tests unique to software which expresses scientific models.

  18. Variable amplitude fatigue, modelling and testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svensson, Thomas.

    1993-01-01

    Problems related to metal fatigue modelling and testing are here treated in four different papers. In the first paper different views of the subject are summarised in a literature survey. In the second paper a new model for fatigue life is investigated. Experimental results are established which are promising for further development of the mode. In the third paper a method is presented that generates a stochastic process, suitable to fatigue testing. The process is designed in order to resemble certain fatigue related features in service life processes. In the fourth paper fatigue problems in transport vibrations are treated

  19. Flight Test Maneuvers for Efficient Aerodynamic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Eugene A.

    2011-01-01

    Novel flight test maneuvers for efficient aerodynamic modeling were developed and demonstrated in flight. Orthogonal optimized multi-sine inputs were applied to aircraft control surfaces to excite aircraft dynamic response in all six degrees of freedom simultaneously while keeping the aircraft close to chosen reference flight conditions. Each maneuver was designed for a specific modeling task that cannot be adequately or efficiently accomplished using conventional flight test maneuvers. All of the new maneuvers were first described and explained, then demonstrated on a subscale jet transport aircraft in flight. Real-time and post-flight modeling results obtained using equation-error parameter estimation in the frequency domain were used to show the effectiveness and efficiency of the new maneuvers, as well as the quality of the aerodynamic models that can be identified from the resultant flight data.

  20. Timing and presence of an attachment person affect sensitivity of aggression tests in shelter dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kis, A; Klausz, B; Persa, E; Miklósi, Á; Gácsi, M

    2014-02-22

    Different test series have been developed and used to measure behaviour in shelter dogs in order to reveal individuals not suitable for re-homing due to their aggressive tendencies. However, behavioural tests previously validated on pet dogs seem to have relatively low predictability in the case of shelter dogs. Here, we investigate the potential effects of (1) timing of the behaviour testing and (2) presence of a human companion on dogs' aggressive behaviour. In Study I, shelter dogs (n=25) showed more aggression when tested in a short test series two weeks after they had been placed in the shelter compared to their responses in the same test performed 1-2 days after arrival. In Study II, the occurrence of aggressive behaviour was more probable in pet dogs (n=50) in the presence than in the absence of their passive owner. We conclude that the sensitivity of aggression tests for shelter dogs can be increased by running the test in the presence of a caretaker, and after some period of acclimatisation to the new environment. This methodology could also provide better chances for successful adoption.

  1. The sensitivity and the specifity of rapid antigen test in streptococcal upper respiratory tract infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurol, Yesim; Akan, Hulya; Izbirak, Guldal; Tekkanat, Zuhal Tazegun; Gunduz, Tehlile Silem; Hayran, Osman; Yilmaz, Gulden

    2010-06-01

    It is aimed to detect the sensitivity and specificity of rapid antigen detection of group A beta hemolytic streptococci from throat specimen compared with throat culture. The other goal of the study is to help in giving clinical decisions in upper respiratory tract infections according to the age group, by detection of sensitivity and positive predictive values of the rapid tests and throat cultures. Rapid antigen detection and throat culture results for group A beta hemolytic streptococci from outpatients attending to our university hospital between the first of November 2005 and 31st of December 2008 were evaluated retrospectively. Throat samples were obtained by swabs from the throat and transported in the Stuart medium and Quickvue Strep A [Quidel, San Diego, USA] cassette test was applied and for culture, specimen was inoculated on 5% blood sheep agar and identified according to bacitracin and trimethoprim-sulphametaxazole susceptibility from beta hemolytic colonies. During the dates between the first of November 2005 and 31st of December 2008, from 453 patients both rapid antigen detection and throat culture were evaluated. Rapid antigen detection sensitivity and specificity were found to be 64.6% and 96.79%, respectively. The positive predictive value was 80.95% whereas negative predictive value was 92.82%. Kappa index was 0.91. When the results were evaluated according to the age groups, the sensitivity and the positive predictive value of rapid antigen detection in children were 70%, 90.3% and in adults 59.4%, 70.4%. When bacterial infection is concerned to prevent unnecessary antibiotic use, rapid streptococcal antigen test (RSAT) is a reliable method to begin immediate treatment. To get the maximum sensitivity of RSAT, the specimen collection technique used and education of the health care workers is important. While giving clinical decision, it must be taken into consideration that the sensitivity and the positive predictive value of the RSAT is quite

  2. Tritium transfer in pigs - A model test

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melintescu, A.; Galeriu, D. [Horia Hulubei National Inst. for Physics and Nuclear Engineering, Dept. of Life and Environmental Physics, 407 Atomistilor St., Bucharest-Magurele, RO-077125 (Romania)

    2008-07-15

    In the frame of IAEA EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) programme, there was developed a scenario for models ' testing starting with unpublished data for a sow fed with OBT for 84 days. The scenario includes model predictions for the dynamics of tritium in urine and faeces and HTO and OBT in organs at sacrifice. There have been done two inter-comparison exercises and most of the models succeeded to give predictions better than a factor 3 to 5, excepting faeces. There has been done an analysis of models' structure, performance and limits in order to be able to build a model of moderate complexity with a reliable predictive power, able to be applied for human dosimetry, also, when OBT data are missing. (authors)

  3. Damage modeling in Small Punch Test specimens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martínez Pañeda, Emilio; Cuesta, I.I.; Peñuelas, I.

    2016-01-01

    Ductile damage modeling within the Small Punch Test (SPT) is extensively investigated. The capabilities ofthe SPT to reliably estimate fracture and damage properties are thoroughly discussed and emphasis isplaced on the use of notched specimens. First, different notch profiles are analyzed....... Furthermore,Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman model predictions from a top-down approach are employed to gain insightinto the mechanisms governing crack initiation and subsequent propagation in small punch experiments.An accurate assessment of micromechanical toughness parameters from the SPT...

  4. Non-animal assessment of skin sensitization hazard: Is an integrated testing strategy needed, and if so what should be integrated?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, David W; Patlewicz, Grace

    2018-01-01

    There is an expectation that to meet regulatory requirements, and avoid or minimize animal testing, integrated approaches to testing and assessment will be needed that rely on assays representing key events (KEs) in the skin sensitization adverse outcome pathway. Three non-animal assays have been formally validated and regulatory adopted: the direct peptide reactivity assay (DPRA), the KeratinoSens™ assay and the human cell line activation test (h-CLAT). There have been many efforts to develop integrated approaches to testing and assessment with the "two out of three" approach attracting much attention. Here a set of 271 chemicals with mouse, human and non-animal sensitization test data was evaluated to compare the predictive performances of the three individual non-animal assays, their binary combinations and the "two out of three" approach in predicting skin sensitization potential. The most predictive approach was to use both the DPRA and h-CLAT as follows: (1) perform DPRA - if positive, classify as sensitizing, and (2) if negative, perform h-CLAT - a positive outcome denotes a sensitizer, a negative, a non-sensitizer. With this approach, 85% (local lymph node assay) and 93% (human) of non-sensitizer predictions were correct, whereas the "two out of three" approach had 69% (local lymph node assay) and 79% (human) of non-sensitizer predictions correct. The findings are consistent with the argument, supported by published quantitative mechanistic models that only the first KE needs to be modeled. All three assays model this KE to an extent. The value of using more than one assay depends on how the different assays compensate for each other's technical limitations. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. A geostatistics-informed hierarchical sensitivity analysis method for complex groundwater flow and transport modeling: GEOSTATISTICAL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dai, Heng [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Chen, Xingyuan [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Ye, Ming [Department of Scientific Computing, Florida State University, Tallahassee Florida USA; Song, Xuehang [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zachara, John M. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA

    2017-05-01

    Sensitivity analysis is an important tool for quantifying uncertainty in the outputs of mathematical models, especially for complex systems with a high dimension of spatially correlated parameters. Variance-based global sensitivity analysis has gained popularity because it can quantify the relative contribution of uncertainty from different sources. However, its computational cost increases dramatically with the complexity of the considered model and the dimension of model parameters. In this study we developed a hierarchical sensitivity analysis method that (1) constructs an uncertainty hierarchy by analyzing the input uncertainty sources, and (2) accounts for the spatial correlation among parameters at each level of the hierarchy using geostatistical tools. The contribution of uncertainty source at each hierarchy level is measured by sensitivity indices calculated using the variance decomposition method. Using this methodology, we identified the most important uncertainty source for a dynamic groundwater flow and solute transport in model at the Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford site. The results indicate that boundary conditions and permeability field contribute the most uncertainty to the simulated head field and tracer plume, respectively. The relative contribution from each source varied spatially and temporally as driven by the dynamic interaction between groundwater and river water at the site. By using a geostatistical approach to reduce the number of realizations needed for the sensitivity analysis, the computational cost of implementing the developed method was reduced to a practically manageable level. The developed sensitivity analysis method is generally applicable to a wide range of hydrologic and environmental problems that deal with high-dimensional spatially-distributed parameters.

  6. IATA-Bayesian Network Model for Skin Sensitization Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Since the publication of the Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) for skin sensitization, there have been many efforts to develop systematic approaches to integrate the...

  7. Wind climate estimation using WRF model output: method and model sensitivities over the sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hahmann, Andrea N.; Vincent, Claire Louise; Peña, Alfredo

    2015-01-01

    setup parameters. The results of the year-long sensitivity simulations show that the long-term mean wind speed simulated by the WRF model offshore in the region studied is quite insensitive to the global reanalysis, the number of vertical levels, and the horizontal resolution of the sea surface...... temperature used as lower boundary conditions. Also, the strength and form (grid vs spectral) of the nudging is quite irrelevant for the mean wind speed at 100 m. Large sensitivity is found to the choice of boundary layer parametrization, and to the length of the period that is discarded as spin-up to produce...

  8. A model to estimate insulin sensitivity in dairy cows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holtenius Kjell

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Impairment of the insulin regulation of energy metabolism is considered to be an etiologic key component for metabolic disturbances. Methods for studies of insulin sensitivity thus are highly topical. There are clear indications that reduced insulin sensitivity contributes to the metabolic disturbances that occurs especially among obese lactating cows. Direct measurements of insulin sensitivity are laborious and not suitable for epidemiological studies. We have therefore adopted an indirect method originally developed for humans to estimate insulin sensitivity in dairy cows. The method, "Revised Quantitative Insulin Sensitivity Check Index" (RQUICKI is based on plasma concentrations of glucose, insulin and free fatty acids (FFA and it generates good and linear correlations with different estimates of insulin sensitivity in human populations. We hypothesized that the RQUICKI method could be used as an index of insulin function in lactating dairy cows. We calculated RQUICKI in 237 apparently healthy dairy cows from 20 commercial herds. All cows included were in their first 15 weeks of lactation. RQUICKI was not affected by the homeorhetic adaptations in energy metabolism that occurred during the first 15 weeks of lactation. In a cohort of 24 experimental cows fed in order to obtain different body condition at parturition RQUICKI was lower in early lactation in cows with a high body condition score suggesting disturbed insulin function in obese cows. The results indicate that RQUICKI might be used to identify lactating cows with disturbed insulin function.

  9. Flow analysis with WaSiM-ETH – model parameter sensitivity at different scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Cullmann

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available WaSiM-ETH (Gurtz et al., 2001, a widely used water balance simulation model, is tested for its suitability to serve for flow analysis in the context of rainfall runoff modelling and flood forecasting. In this paper, special focus is on the resolution of the process domain in space as well as in time. We try to couple model runs with different calculation time steps in order to reduce the effort arising from calculating the whole flow hydrograph at the hourly time step. We aim at modelling on the daily time step for water balance purposes, switching to the hourly time step whenever high-resolution information is necessary (flood forecasting. WaSiM-ETH is used at different grid resolutions, thus we try to become clear about being able to transfer the model in spatial resolution. We further use two different approaches for the overland flow time calculation within the sub-basins of the test watershed to gain insights about the process dynamics portrayed by the model. Our findings indicate that the model is very sensitive to time and space resolution and cannot be transferred across scales without recalibration.

  10. Testing of a steel containment vessel model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luk, V.K.; Hessheimer, M.F.; Matsumoto, T.; Komine, K.; Costello, J.F.

    1997-01-01

    A mixed-scale containment vessel model, with 1:10 in containment geometry and 1:4 in shell thickness, was fabricated to represent an improved, boiling water reactor (BWR) Mark II containment vessel. A contact structure, installed over the model and separated at a nominally uniform distance from it, provided a simplified representation of a reactor shield building in the actual plant. This paper describes the pretest preparations and the conduct of the high pressure test of the model performed on December 11-12, 1996. 4 refs., 2 figs

  11. Engineering Abstractions in Model Checking and Testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Achenbach, Michael; Ostermann, Klaus

    2009-01-01

    Abstractions are used in model checking to tackle problems like state space explosion or modeling of IO. The application of these abstractions in real software development processes, however, lacks engineering support. This is one reason why model checking is not widely used in practice yet...... and testing is still state of the art in falsification. We show how user-defined abstractions can be integrated into a Java PathFinder setting with tools like AspectJ or Javassist and discuss implications of remaining weaknesses of these tools. We believe that a principled engineering approach to designing...

  12. Binomial test models and item difficulty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    1979-01-01

    In choosing a binomial test model, it is important to know exactly what conditions are imposed on item difficulty. In this paper these conditions are examined for both a deterministic and a stochastic conception of item responses. It appears that they are more restrictive than is generally

  13. Shallow foundation model tests in Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Feda, Jaroslav; Simonini, P.; Arslan, U.; Georgiodis, M.; Laue, J.; Pinto, I.

    1999-01-01

    Roč. 2, č. 4 (1999), s. 447-475 ISSN 1436-6517. [Int. Conf. on Soil - Structure Interaction in Urban Civ. Engineering. Darmstadt, 08.10.1999-09.10.1999] R&D Projects: GA MŠk OC C7.10 Keywords : shallow foundations * model tests * sandy subsoil * bearing capacity * settlement Subject RIV: JM - Building Engineering

  14. Testing spatial heterogeneity with stock assessment models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jardim, Ernesto; Eero, Margit; Silva, Alexandra

    2018-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology that combines meta-population theory and stock assessment models to gain insights about spatial heterogeneity of the meta-population in an operational time frame. The methodology was tested with stochastic simulations for different degrees of connectivity betwee...

  15. Turbulence Modeling Validation, Testing, and Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardina, J. E.; Huang, P. G.; Coakley, T. J.

    1997-01-01

    The primary objective of this work is to provide accurate numerical solutions for selected flow fields and to compare and evaluate the performance of selected turbulence models with experimental results. Four popular turbulence models have been tested and validated against experimental data often turbulent flows. The models are: (1) the two-equation k-epsilon model of Wilcox, (2) the two-equation k-epsilon model of Launder and Sharma, (3) the two-equation k-omega/k-epsilon SST model of Menter, and (4) the one-equation model of Spalart and Allmaras. The flows investigated are five free shear flows consisting of a mixing layer, a round jet, a plane jet, a plane wake, and a compressible mixing layer; and five boundary layer flows consisting of an incompressible flat plate, a Mach 5 adiabatic flat plate, a separated boundary layer, an axisymmetric shock-wave/boundary layer interaction, and an RAE 2822 transonic airfoil. The experimental data for these flows are well established and have been extensively used in model developments. The results are shown in the following four sections: Part A describes the equations of motion and boundary conditions; Part B describes the model equations, constants, parameters, boundary conditions, and numerical implementation; and Parts C and D describe the experimental data and the performance of the models in the free-shear flows and the boundary layer flows, respectively.

  16. Nickel contact sensitivity in the guinea pig. An efficient open application test method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, G D; Rohold, A E; Andersen, Klaus Ejner

    1992-01-01

    Nickel contact sensitivity was successfully induced in guinea pigs using an open epicutaneous application method. Immediately after pretreatment with 1% aqueous sodium lauryl sulfate, upper back skin was treated daily for 4 weeks with 0.3%-3% nickel sulfate in either a 1% lanolin cream (Vaseline, p......H 5 SAD crème) or hydroxypropyl cellulose. Weekly intradermal injections with aluminium potassium sulfate were used as adjuvant. The animals were challenged twice with a one week interval, with nickel sulfate 2% in water and 1% in petrolatum, respectively. The response rates in the test groups treated...... with nickel sulfate 1% or 3% in the lanolin cream or 1% in hydroxypropyl cellulose were significantly different from the response rate in the control group. Considering both readings at both challenges, the frequency of sensitization was 57-93% (8 of 14 to 13 of 14 animals) in the group treated with 1...

  17. Effective Moisture Penetration Depth Model for Residential Buildings: Sensitivity Analysis and Guidance on Model Inputs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woods, Jason D [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Winkler, Jonathan M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-01-31

    Moisture buffering of building materials has a significant impact on the building's indoor humidity, and building energy simulations need to model this buffering to accurately predict the humidity. Researchers requiring a simple moisture-buffering approach typically rely on the effective-capacitance model, which has been shown to be a poor predictor of actual indoor humidity. This paper describes an alternative two-layer effective moisture penetration depth (EMPD) model and its inputs. While this model has been used previously, there is a need to understand the sensitivity of this model to uncertain inputs. In this paper, we use the moisture-adsorbent materials exposed to the interior air: drywall, wood, and carpet. We use a global sensitivity analysis to determine which inputs are most influential and how the model's prediction capability degrades due to uncertainty in these inputs. We then compare the model's humidity prediction with measured data from five houses, which shows that this model, and a set of simple inputs, can give reasonable prediction of the indoor humidity.

  18. Association between pressure pain sensitivity and autonomic function as assessed by a tilt table test

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ballegaard, Søren; Bergmann, Natasha; Karpatschof, Benny

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We tested the hypothesis that pressure sensitivity of the sternum (PPS) is associated with autonomic nervous system (ANS) function as assessed by tilt table test (TTT). in patients with stable ischemic heart disease. OBJECTIVES: (1) To evaluate an association between PPS and systolic...... blood pressure (SBP) and heart rate (HR) responses to TTT; and (2) to test the hypothesis that a reduction of resting PPS raises the PPS, SBP and HR responses to TTT response and lowers risk factors for ANS dysfunction (ANSD). METHODS: Cross-sectional study: In 361 patients with stable ischemic heart...... disease we measured PPS, SBP, and HR during TTT. Intervention study: We reassessed subjects with persistent stress who concluded a stress intervention trial by a second TTT. RESULTS: Cross-sectional study: Resting PPS and the PPS response to TTT were correlated (r = - 0.37). The PPS response to TTT...

  19. Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell Engineering Model Powerplant. Test Report: Benchmark Tests in Three Spatial Orientations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loyselle, Patricia; Prokopius, Kevin

    2011-01-01

    Proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell technology is the leading candidate to replace the aging alkaline fuel cell technology, currently used on the Shuttle, for future space missions. This test effort marks the final phase of a 5-yr development program that began under the Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Program, transitioned into the Next Generation Launch Technologies (NGLT) Program, and continued under Constellation Systems in the Exploration Technology Development Program. Initially, the engineering model (EM) powerplant was evaluated with respect to its performance as compared to acceptance tests carried out at the manufacturer. This was to determine the sensitivity of the powerplant performance to changes in test environment. In addition, a series of tests were performed with the powerplant in the original standard orientation. This report details the continuing EM benchmark test results in three spatial orientations as well as extended duration testing in the mission profile test. The results from these tests verify the applicability of PEM fuel cells for future NASA missions. The specifics of these different tests are described in the following sections.

  20. Parametric uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis in a model of the carotid bifurcation: Identification and ranking of most sensitive model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gul, R; Bernhard, S

    2015-11-01

    In computational cardiovascular models, parameters are one of major sources of uncertainty, which make the models unreliable and less predictive. In order to achieve predictive models that allow the investigation of the cardiovascular diseases, sensitivity analysis (SA) can be used to quantify and reduce the uncertainty in outputs (pressure and flow) caused by input (electrical and structural) model parameters. In the current study, three variance based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) methods; Sobol, FAST and a sparse grid stochastic collocation technique based on the Smolyak algorithm were applied on a lumped parameter model of carotid bifurcation. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to identify and rank most sensitive parameters as well as to fix less sensitive parameters at their nominal values (factor fixing). In this context, network location and temporal dependent sensitivities were also discussed to identify optimal measurement locations in carotid bifurcation and optimal temporal regions for each parameter in the pressure and flow waves, respectively. Results show that, for both pressure and flow, flow resistance (R), diameter (d) and length of the vessel (l) are sensitive within right common carotid (RCC), right internal carotid (RIC) and right external carotid (REC) arteries, while compliance of the vessels (C) and blood inertia (L) are sensitive only at RCC. Moreover, Young's modulus (E) and wall thickness (h) exhibit less sensitivities on pressure and flow at all locations of carotid bifurcation. Results of network location and temporal variabilities revealed that most of sensitivity was found in common time regions i.e. early systole, peak systole and end systole. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Aquifer sensitivity to pesticide leaching: Testing a soils and hydrogeologic index method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehnert, E.; Keefer, D.A.; Dey, W.S.; Wehrmann, H.A.; Wilson, S.D.; Ray, C.

    2005-01-01

    For years, researchers have sought index and other methods to predict aquifer sensitivity and vulnerability to nonpoint pesticide contamination. In 1995, an index method and map were developed to define aquifer sensitivity to pesticide leaching based on a combination of soil and hydrogeologic factors. The soil factor incorporated three soil properties: hydraulic conductivity, amount of organic matter within individual soil layers, and drainage class. These properties were obtained from a digital soil association map. The hydrogeologic factor was depth to uppermost aquifer material. To test this index method, a shallow ground water monitoring well network was designed, installed, and sampled in Illinois. The monitoring wells had a median depth of 7.6 m and were located adjacent to corn and soybean fields where the only known sources of pesticides were those used in normal agricultural production. From September 1998 through February 2001, 159 monitoring wells were sampled for 14 pesticides but no pesticide metabolites. Samples were collected and analyzed to assess the distribution of pesticide occurrence across three units of aquifer sensitivity. Pesticides were detected in 18% of all samples and nearly uniformly from samples from the three units of aquifer sensitivity. The new index method did not predict pesticide occurrence because occurrence was not dependent on the combined soil and hydrogeologic factors. However, pesticide occurrence was dependent on the tested hydrogeologic factor and was three times higher in areas where the depth to the uppermost aquifer was <6 m than in areas where the depth to the uppermost aquifer was 6 to <15 m. Copyright ?? 2005 National Ground Water Association.

  2. Testing Parametric versus Semiparametric Modelling in Generalized Linear Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Härdle, W.K.; Mammen, E.; Müller, M.D.

    1996-01-01

    We consider a generalized partially linear model E(Y|X,T) = G{X'b + m(T)} where G is a known function, b is an unknown parameter vector, and m is an unknown function.The paper introduces a test statistic which allows to decide between a parametric and a semiparametric model: (i) m is linear, i.e.

  3. Blast Testing and Modelling of Composite Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giversen, Søren

    The motivation for this work is based on a desire for finding light weight alternatives to high strength steel as the material to use for armouring in military vehicles. With the use of high strength steel, an increase in the level of armouring has a significant impact on the vehicle weight......-up proved functional and provided consistent data of the panel response. The tests reviled that the sandwich panels did not provide a decrease in panel deflection compared with the monolithic laminates, which was expected due to their higher flexural rigidity. This was found to be because membrane effects...... a pressure distribution on a selected surfaces and has been based on experimental pressure measurement data, and (ii) with a designed 3 step numerical load model, where the blast pressure and FSI (Fluid Structure Interaction) between the pressure wave and modelled panel is modelled numerically. The tested...

  4. Global sensitivity analysis of DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated forest ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiying Tian; Mohamed A. Youssef; Devendra M. Amatya; Eric D. Vance

    2014-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is a useful tool to understand process-based ecosystem models by identifying key parameters and processes controlling model predictions. This study reported a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated model for simulating water, carbon (C), and nitrogen (N) cycles and plant growth in lowland forests. The...

  5. Prospective Tests on Biological Models of Acupuncture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Shang

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The biological effects of acupuncture include the regulation of a variety of neurohumoral factors and growth control factors. In science, models or hypotheses with confirmed predictions are considered more convincing than models solely based on retrospective explanations. Literature review showed that two biological models of acupuncture have been prospectively tested with independently confirmed predictions: The neurophysiology model on the long-term effects of acupuncture emphasizes the trophic and anti-inflammatory effects of acupuncture. Its prediction on the peripheral effect of endorphin in acupuncture has been confirmed. The growth control model encompasses the neurophysiology model and suggests that a macroscopic growth control system originates from a network of organizers in embryogenesis. The activity of the growth control system is important in the formation, maintenance and regulation of all the physiological systems. Several phenomena of acupuncture such as the distribution of auricular acupuncture points, the long-term effects of acupuncture and the effect of multimodal non-specific stimulation at acupuncture points are consistent with the growth control model. The following predictions of the growth control model have been independently confirmed by research results in both acupuncture and conventional biomedical sciences: (i Acupuncture has extensive growth control effects. (ii Singular point and separatrix exist in morphogenesis. (iii Organizers have high electric conductance, high current density and high density of gap junctions. (iv A high density of gap junctions is distributed as separatrices or boundaries at body surface after early embryogenesis. (v Many acupuncture points are located at transition points or boundaries between different body domains or muscles, coinciding with the connective tissue planes. (vi Some morphogens and organizers continue to function after embryogenesis. Current acupuncture research suggests a

  6. Parameter sensitivity analysis of a 1-D cold region lake model for land-surface schemes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-L. Guerrero

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Lakes might be sentinels of climate change, but the uncertainty in their main feedback to the atmosphere – heat-exchange fluxes – is often not considered within climate models. Additionally, these fluxes are seldom measured, hindering critical evaluation of model output. Analysis of the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM, a one-dimensional integral lake model, was performed to assess its ability to reproduce diurnal and seasonal variations in heat fluxes and the sensitivity of simulated fluxes to changes in model parameters, i.e., turbulent transport parameters and the light extinction coefficient (Kd. A C++ open-source software package, Problem Solving environment for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration (PSUADE, was used to perform sensitivity analysis (SA and identify the parameters that dominate model behavior. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE was applied to quantify the fluxes' uncertainty, comparing daily-averaged eddy-covariance observations to the output of CSLM. Seven qualitative and two quantitative SA methods were tested, and the posterior likelihoods of the modeled parameters, obtained from the GLUE analysis, were used to determine the dominant parameters and the uncertainty in the modeled fluxes. Despite the ubiquity of the equifinality issue – different parameter-value combinations yielding equivalent results – the answer to the question was unequivocal: Kd, a measure of how much light penetrates the lake, dominates sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the uncertainty in their estimates is strongly related to the accuracy with which Kd is determined. This is important since accurate and continuous measurements of Kd could reduce modeling uncertainty.

  7. Perception of basic tastes and threshold sensitivity during testing of selected judges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Zajác

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false SK JA X-NONE The sense of taste is one of the most important human senses. Alteration in taste perception can greately interfere to our lives, because it influences our dietary habits and consequently general human health. Many physiological and external factors can cause the loss of taste perception. These factors include for example certain diseases, the side effect of the use of certain medicaments, head trauma, gender, dietary habbits, smoking, role of saliva, age, stress and many more. In this paper we are discussing perception of basic tastes and treshold sensitivity during testing of selected groupe of 500 sensory judges. A resolution taste test and sensitivity treshold test were performed using basic tastes (sour, bitter, salty, sweet, umami, astringent, metallic. We have found that the perception of basic tastes decreese with human age. Smoking leads to significant errors in the determination of basic tastes. Different mistakes occures in different age categories. This study suggests further researches, investigating various factors influencing taste perception.  doi:10.5219/259

  8. Masonry fireplace emissions test method: Repeatability and sensitivity to fueling protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, C H; Jaasma, D R; Champion, M R

    1993-03-01

    A test method for masonry fireplaces has been evaluated during testing on six masonry fireplace configurations. The method determines carbon monoxide and particulate matter emission rates (g/h) and factors (g/kg) and does not require weighing of the appliance to determine the timing of fuel loading.The intralaboratory repeatability of the test method has been determined from multiple tests on the six fireplaces. For the tested fireplaces, the ratio of the highest to lowest measured PM rate averaged 1.17 and in no case was greater than 1.32. The data suggest that some of the variation is due to differences in fuel properties.The influence of fueling protocol on emissions has also been studied. A modified fueling protocol, tested in large and small fireplaces, reduced CO and PM emission factors by roughly 40% and reduced CO and PM rates from 0 to 30%. For both of these fireplaces, emission rates were less sensitive to fueling protocol than emission factors.

  9. Global sensitivity analysis for an integrated model for simulation of nitrogen dynamics under the irrigation with treated wastewater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Huaiwei; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong; Wang, Xiugui

    2015-11-01

    As the amount of water resources that can be utilized for agricultural production is limited, the reuse of treated wastewater (TWW) for irrigation is a practical solution to alleviate the water crisis in China. The process-based models, which estimate nitrogen dynamics under irrigation, are widely used to investigate the best irrigation and fertilization management practices in developed and developing countries. However, for modeling such a complex system for wastewater reuse, it is critical to conduct a sensitivity analysis to determine numerous input parameters and their interactions that contribute most to the variance of the model output for the development of process-based model. In this study, application of a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for nitrogen dynamics was reported. The objective was to compare different global sensitivity analysis (GSA) on the key parameters for different model predictions of nitrogen and crop growth modules. The analysis was performed as two steps. Firstly, Morris screening method, which is one of the most commonly used screening method, was carried out to select the top affected parameters; then, a variance-based global sensitivity analysis method (extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, EFAST) was used to investigate more thoroughly the effects of selected parameters on model predictions. The results of GSA showed that strong parameter interactions exist in crop nitrogen uptake, nitrogen denitrification, crop yield, and evapotranspiration modules. Among all parameters, one of the soil physical-related parameters named as the van Genuchten air entry parameter showed the largest sensitivity effects on major model predictions. These results verified that more effort should be focused on quantifying soil parameters for more accurate model predictions in nitrogen- and crop-related predictions, and stress the need to better calibrate the model in a global sense. This study demonstrates the advantages of the GSA on a

  10. A Method to Test Model Calibration Techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Judkoff, Ron; Polly, Ben; Neymark, Joel

    2016-08-26

    This paper describes a method for testing model calibration techniques. Calibration is commonly used in conjunction with energy retrofit audit models. An audit is conducted to gather information about the building needed to assemble an input file for a building energy modeling tool. A calibration technique is used to reconcile model predictions with utility data, and then the 'calibrated model' is used to predict energy savings from a variety of retrofit measures and combinations thereof. Current standards and guidelines such as BPI-2400 and ASHRAE-14 set criteria for 'goodness of fit' and assume that if the criteria are met, then the calibration technique is acceptable. While it is logical to use the actual performance data of the building to tune the model, it is not certain that a good fit will result in a model that better predicts post-retrofit energy savings. Therefore, the basic idea here is that the simulation program (intended for use with the calibration technique) is used to generate surrogate utility bill data and retrofit energy savings data against which the calibration technique can be tested. This provides three figures of merit for testing a calibration technique, 1) accuracy of the post-retrofit energy savings prediction, 2) closure on the 'true' input parameter values, and 3) goodness of fit to the utility bill data. The paper will also discuss the pros and cons of using this synthetic surrogate data approach versus trying to use real data sets of actual buildings.

  11. ARX model-based damage sensitive features for structural damage localization using output-only measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Koushik; Bhattacharya, Bishakh; Ray-Chaudhuri, Samit

    2015-08-01

    The study proposes a set of four ARX model (autoregressive model with exogenous input) based damage sensitive features (DSFs) for structural damage detection and localization using the dynamic responses of structures, where the information regarding the input excitation may not be available. In the proposed framework, one of the output responses of a multi-degree-of-freedom system is assumed as the input and the rest are considered as the output. The features are based on ARX model coefficients, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test statistical distance, and the model residual error. At first, a mathematical formulation is provided to establish the relation between the change in ARX model coefficients and the normalized stiffness of a structure. KS test parameters are then described to show the sensitivity of statistical distance of ARX model residual error with the damage location. The efficiency of the proposed set of DSFs is evaluated by conducting numerical studies involving a shear building and a steel moment-resisting frame. To simulate the damage scenarios in these structures, stiffness degradation of different elements is considered. It is observed from this study that the proposed set of DSFs is good indicator for damage location even in the presence of damping, multiple damages, noise, and parametric uncertainties. The performance of these DSFs is compared with mode shape curvature-based approach for damage localization. An experimental study has also been conducted on a three-dimensional six-storey steel moment frame to understand the performance of these DSFs under real measurement conditions. It has been observed that the proposed set of DSFs can satisfactorily localize damage in the structure.

  12. Parametric Testing of Launch Vehicle FDDR Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, Johann; Bajwa, Anupa; Berg, Peter; Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar

    2011-01-01

    For the safe operation of a complex system like a (manned) launch vehicle, real-time information about the state of the system and potential faults is extremely important. The on-board FDDR (Failure Detection, Diagnostics, and Response) system is a software system to detect and identify failures, provide real-time diagnostics, and to initiate fault recovery and mitigation. The ERIS (Evaluation of Rocket Integrated Subsystems) failure simulation is a unified Matlab/Simulink model of the Ares I Launch Vehicle with modular, hierarchical subsystems and components. With this model, the nominal flight performance characteristics can be studied. Additionally, failures can be injected to see their effects on vehicle state and on vehicle behavior. A comprehensive test and analysis of such a complicated model is virtually impossible. In this paper, we will describe, how parametric testing (PT) can be used to support testing and analysis of the ERIS failure simulation. PT uses a combination of Monte Carlo techniques with n-factor combinatorial exploration to generate a small, yet comprehensive set of parameters for the test runs. For the analysis of the high-dimensional simulation data, we are using multivariate clustering to automatically find structure in this high-dimensional data space. Our tools can generate detailed HTML reports that facilitate the analysis.

  13. Sensitivity and specificity of skin tests in the diagnosis of clarithromycin allergy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, Francesca; Barni, Simona; Pucci, Neri; Rossi, Elisabetta; Azzari, Chiara; de Martino, Maurizio; Novembre, Elio

    2010-05-01

    Clarithromycin is one of the most frequently prescribed oral macrolidic antibiotics in the pediatric population. Suspected adverse reactions to clarithromycin have been frequently described by parents of children examined in pediatric allergy units, but there is a lack of reliable methods available in detecting the presence of specific IgE antibodies. To investigate the prevalence of a clarithromycin allergy in children seen in a pediatric allergy unit using standardized skin tests and oral provocation tests (OPTs). Sixty-four children were referred with a history of a clarithromycin-associated adverse drug reaction. All these children underwent skin tests and OPTs. The nonirritating intradermal skin test concentration for clarithromycin was determined in a control group of 18 children who had tolerated clarithromycin in the previous month. The threshold nonirritating intradermal concentration was established at the 10:2 dilution (0.5 mg/mL). Nine of the 64 children had an immediately positive intradermal response to the 10:2 dilution and only 1 child to the 10:3 dilution (0.05 mg/mL). None had positive skin prick test results or delayed skin responses to intradermal tests. Four of 64 children (6%) with previously described adverse reactions due to clarithromycin intake had a positive OPT reaction. When we correlated the intradermal skin test results to the OPT results, intradermal test sensitivity and specificity were 75% and 90%, respectively. Intradermal tests seem to be useful in allergologic workup in children with suspected clarithromycin hypersensitivity and may help reduce the need for OPTs.

  14. Sandia National Laboratories Small-Scale Sensitivity Testing (SSST) Report: Calcium Nitrate Mixtures with Various Fuels.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, Jason Joe [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-07-01

    Based upon the presented sensitivity data for the examined calcium nitrate mixtures using sugar and sawdust, contact handling/mixing of these materials does not present hazards greater than those occurring during handling of dry PETN powder. The aluminized calcium nitrate mixtures present a known ESD fire hazard due to the fine aluminum powder fuel. These mixtures may yet present an ESD explosion hazard, though this has not been investigated at this time. The detonability of these mixtures will be investigated during Phase III testing.

  15. Use of polyvinylpyrrolidone in the testing of staphylococci for sensitivity to methicillin and cephradine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayston, R

    1978-01-01

    The use of polyvinylpyrrolidone, an inert polymer resembling plasma proteins in its colligative effects, in the testing of micrococcaceae for sensitivity to methicillin and cephradine is described. Generally results are quite comparable with those of conventional methods. The absence of any inhibitory effect of the polymer compared to sodium chloride, and its physiological inertia compared to sucrose, along with its suitability for sterilisation by autoclaving are seen as advantages. It is suggested that the use of this substance may give results which are more applicable to the in vivo situation. This may apply particularly in the case of cephradine. PMID:649768

  16. Sensitivity of surface temperature to radiative forcing by contrail cirrus in a radiative-mixing model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, Ulrich; Mayer, Bernhard

    2017-11-01

    Earth's surface temperature sensitivity to radiative forcing (RF) by contrail cirrus and the related RF efficacy relative to CO2 are investigated in a one-dimensional idealized model of the atmosphere. The model includes energy transport by shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiation and by mixing in an otherwise fixed reference atmosphere (no other feedbacks). Mixing includes convective adjustment and turbulent diffusion, where the latter is related to the vertical component of mixing by large-scale eddies. The conceptual study shows that the surface temperature sensitivity to given contrail RF depends strongly on the timescales of energy transport by mixing and radiation. The timescales are derived for steady layered heating (ghost forcing) and for a transient contrail cirrus case. The radiative timescales are shortest at the surface and shorter in the troposphere than in the mid-stratosphere. Without mixing, a large part of the energy induced into the upper troposphere by radiation due to contrails or similar disturbances gets lost to space before it can contribute to surface warming. Because of the different radiative forcing at the surface and at top of atmosphere (TOA) and different radiative heating rate profiles in the troposphere, the local surface temperature sensitivity to stratosphere-adjusted RF is larger for SW than for LW contrail forcing. Without mixing, the surface energy budget is more important for surface warming than the TOA budget. Hence, surface warming by contrails is smaller than suggested by the net RF at TOA. For zero mixing, cooling by contrails cannot be excluded. This may in part explain low efficacy values for contrails found in previous global circulation model studies. Possible implications of this study are discussed. Since the results of this study are model dependent, they should be tested with a comprehensive climate model in the future.

  17. Sensitivity of surface temperature to radiative forcing by contrail cirrus in a radiative-mixing model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Schumann

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Earth's surface temperature sensitivity to radiative forcing (RF by contrail cirrus and the related RF efficacy relative to CO2 are investigated in a one-dimensional idealized model of the atmosphere. The model includes energy transport by shortwave (SW and longwave (LW radiation and by mixing in an otherwise fixed reference atmosphere (no other feedbacks. Mixing includes convective adjustment and turbulent diffusion, where the latter is related to the vertical component of mixing by large-scale eddies. The conceptual study shows that the surface temperature sensitivity to given contrail RF depends strongly on the timescales of energy transport by mixing and radiation. The timescales are derived for steady layered heating (ghost forcing and for a transient contrail cirrus case. The radiative timescales are shortest at the surface and shorter in the troposphere than in the mid-stratosphere. Without mixing, a large part of the energy induced into the upper troposphere by radiation due to contrails or similar disturbances gets lost to space before it can contribute to surface warming. Because of the different radiative forcing at the surface and at top of atmosphere (TOA and different radiative heating rate profiles in the troposphere, the local surface temperature sensitivity to stratosphere-adjusted RF is larger for SW than for LW contrail forcing. Without mixing, the surface energy budget is more important for surface warming than the TOA budget. Hence, surface warming by contrails is smaller than suggested by the net RF at TOA. For zero mixing, cooling by contrails cannot be excluded. This may in part explain low efficacy values for contrails found in previous global circulation model studies. Possible implications of this study are discussed. Since the results of this study are model dependent, they should be tested with a comprehensive climate model in the future.

  18. Clinical value of the thallium-201 stress test: sensitivity and specificity in the detection of coronary artery disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okada, R.D.; Raessler, K.L.; Woolfenden, J.M.; Groves, B.M.; Patton, D.; Goldman, S.; Hager, W.D.

    1978-01-01

    Rest and exercise thallium-201 scintigraphy ( 201 Tl stress test), 90% submaximal treadmill exercise test (ECG stress test), and coronary angiography were performed on 49 patients with suspected coronary artery disease. When technically unsatisfactory and uninterpretable scintiphotos were excluded, the sensitivity (true positives/true positives + false negatives) of the 201 Tl stress test in detecting coronary artery stenosis >= 70% was 81%. The sensitivity of the 201 Tl stress test in detecting coronary artery stenosis >= 50% was 84%. However, when technically unsatisfactory and uninterpretable studies were considered as failures of the test to detect disease, the sensitivity of the 201 Tl stress test in detecting coronary artery stenosis >= 50% was 71%. The sensitivity of the ECG stress test was 92% in detecting stenosis >= 70% and 85% in detecting stenosis >= 50% when non-diagnostic tests were excluded. However, when 11 non-diagnostic ECG stress tests were considered as a failure of the test to detect disease, the sensitivity of the ECG stress test in detecting coronary artery stenosis >= 50% was 64%. The sensitivity of the combined stress test i