APR1400 Fluidic Device Sensitivity Test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Nam Hyun; Chu, In Cheol; Min, Kyong Ho; Song, Chul Hwa

2005-12-01

In the safety injection tank at the emergency core cooling system of APR1400, a new safety design feature, passive fluidic device is equipped which includes no active driving system. It is essential to evaluate the new design feature with various experiments. For this reason, three categories of sensitivity tests have been performed in the present study. As the first sensitivity experiment, the effect of the height of the stand pipe was investigated. The second sensitivity test was conducted with removing the insert plate gasket to examine its effect. The effect of the expansion of the control nozzle width was ascertained from the third sensitivity test. The results of each test showed that the passive fluidic device which will be equipped in the SIT tank of APR1400 has great integrity and repeatability

Re-test reliability of gustatory testing and introduction of the sensitive Taste-Drop-Test

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fjaeldstad, A; Niklassen, A; Fernandes, H

2018-01-01

. Testing gustatory function can be important for diagnostics and assessment of treatment effects. However, the gustatory tests applied are required to be both sensitive and reliable.In this study, we investigate the re-test validity of popular Taste Strips gustatory test for gustatory screening....... Furthermore, we introduce a new sensitive Taste-Drop-Test, which was found to be superior for detecting a more accurate measure of tastant sensitivity....

Validation and sensitivity tests on improved parametrizations of a land surface process model (LSPM) in the Po Valley

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cassardo, C.; Carena, E.; Longhetto, A.

1998-01-01

The Land Surface Process Model (LSPM) has been improved with respect to the 1. version of 1994. The modifications have involved the parametrizations of the radiation terms and of turbulent heat fluxes. A parametrization of runoff has also been developed, in order to close the hydrologic balance. This 2. version of LSPM has been validated against experimental data gathered at Mottarone (Verbania, Northern Italy) during a field experiment. The results of this validation show that this new version is able to apportionate the energy into sensible and latent heat fluxes. LSPM has also been submitted to a series of sensitivity tests in order to investigate the hydrological part of the model. The physical quantities selected in these sensitivity experiments have been the initial soil moisture content and the rainfall intensity. In each experiment, the model has been forced by using the observations carried out at the synoptic stations of San Pietro Capofiume (Po Valley, Italy). The observed characteristics of soil and vegetation (not involved in the sensitivity tests) have been used as initial and boundary conditions. The results of the simulation show that LSPM can reproduce well the energy, heat and water budgets and their behaviours with varying the selected parameters. A careful analysis of the LSPM output shows also the importance to identify the effective soil type

High sensitivity tests of the standard model for electroweak interactions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koetke, D.D.; Manweiler, R.W.; Shirvel Stanislaus, T.D.

1993-01-01

The work done on this project was focused on two LAMPF experiments. The MEGA experiment, a high-sensitivity search for the lepton-family-number-violating decay μ → e γ to a sensitivity which, measured in terms of the branching ratio, BR = [μ → e γ]/[μ → ev μ v e ] ∼ 10 -13 , is over two orders of magnitude better than previously reported values. The second is a precision measurement of the Michel ρ parameter from the positron energy spectrum of μ → ev μ v e to test the V-A theory of weak interactions. The uncertainty in the measurement of the Michel ρ parameter is expected to be a factor of three lower than the present reported value

Sensitivities in global scale modeling of isoprene

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. von Kuhlmann

2004-01-01

Full Text Available A sensitivity study of the treatment of isoprene and related parameters in 3D atmospheric models was conducted using the global model of tropospheric chemistry MATCH-MPIC. A total of twelve sensitivity scenarios which can be grouped into four thematic categories were performed. These four categories consist of simulations with different chemical mechanisms, different assumptions concerning the deposition characteristics of intermediate products, assumptions concerning the nitrates from the oxidation of isoprene and variations of the source strengths. The largest differences in ozone compared to the reference simulation occured when a different isoprene oxidation scheme was used (up to 30-60% or about 10 nmol/mol. The largest differences in the abundance of peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN were found when the isoprene emission strength was reduced by 50% and in tests with increased or decreased efficiency of the deposition of intermediates. The deposition assumptions were also found to have a significant effect on the upper tropospheric HOx production. Different implicit assumptions about the loss of intermediate products were identified as a major reason for the deviations among the tested isoprene oxidation schemes. The total tropospheric burden of O3 calculated in the sensitivity runs is increased compared to the background methane chemistry by 26±9  Tg( O3 from 273 to an average from the sensitivity runs of 299 Tg(O3. % revised Thus, there is a spread of ± 35% of the overall effect of isoprene in the model among the tested scenarios. This range of uncertainty and the much larger local deviations found in the test runs suggest that the treatment of isoprene in global models can only be seen as a first order estimate at present, and points towards specific processes in need of focused future work.

Testing the Nanoparticle-Allostatic Cross Adaptation-Sensitization Model for Homeopathic Remedy Effects

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Iris R.; Koithan, Mary; Brooks, Audrey J.

2012-01-01

Key concepts of the Nanoparticle-Allostatic Cross-Adaptation-Sensitization (NPCAS) Model for the action of homeopathic remedies in living systems include source nanoparticles as low level environmental stressors, heterotypic hormesis, cross-adaptation, allostasis (stress response network), time-dependent sensitization with endogenous amplification and bidirectional change, and self-organizing complex adaptive systems. The model accommodates the requirement for measurable physical agents in the remedy (source nanoparticles and/or source adsorbed to silica nanoparticles). Hormetic adaptive responses in the organism, triggered by nanoparticles; bipolar, metaplastic change, dependent on the history of the organism. Clinical matching of the patient’s symptom picture, including modalities, to the symptom pattern that the source material can cause (cross-adaptation and cross-sensitization). Evidence for nanoparticle-related quantum macro-entanglement in homeopathic pathogenetic trials. This paper examines research implications of the model, discussing the following hypotheses: Variability in nanoparticle size, morphology, and aggregation affects remedy properties and reproducibility of findings. Homeopathic remedies modulate adaptive allostatic responses, with multiple dynamic short- and long-term effects. Simillimum remedy nanoparticles, as novel mild stressors corresponding to the organism’s dysfunction initiate time-dependent cross-sensitization, reversing the direction of dysfunctional reactivity to environmental stressors. The NPCAS model suggests a way forward for systematic research on homeopathy. The central proposition is that homeopathic treatment is a form of nanomedicine acting by modulation of endogenous adaptation and metaplastic amplification processes in the organism to enhance long-term systemic resilience and health. PMID:23290882

Universally sloppy parameter sensitivities in systems biology models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryan N Gutenkunst

2007-10-01

Full Text Available Quantitative computational models play an increasingly important role in modern biology. Such models typically involve many free parameters, and assigning their values is often a substantial obstacle to model development. Directly measuring in vivo biochemical parameters is difficult, and collectively fitting them to other experimental data often yields large parameter uncertainties. Nevertheless, in earlier work we showed in a growth-factor-signaling model that collective fitting could yield well-constrained predictions, even when it left individual parameters very poorly constrained. We also showed that the model had a "sloppy" spectrum of parameter sensitivities, with eigenvalues roughly evenly distributed over many decades. Here we use a collection of models from the literature to test whether such sloppy spectra are common in systems biology. Strikingly, we find that every model we examine has a sloppy spectrum of sensitivities. We also test several consequences of this sloppiness for building predictive models. In particular, sloppiness suggests that collective fits to even large amounts of ideal time-series data will often leave many parameters poorly constrained. Tests over our model collection are consistent with this suggestion. This difficulty with collective fits may seem to argue for direct parameter measurements, but sloppiness also implies that such measurements must be formidably precise and complete to usefully constrain many model predictions. We confirm this implication in our growth-factor-signaling model. Our results suggest that sloppy sensitivity spectra are universal in systems biology models. The prevalence of sloppiness highlights the power of collective fits and suggests that modelers should focus on predictions rather than on parameters.

Universally sloppy parameter sensitivities in systems biology models.

Science.gov (United States)

Gutenkunst, Ryan N; Waterfall, Joshua J; Casey, Fergal P; Brown, Kevin S; Myers, Christopher R; Sethna, James P

2007-10-01

Quantitative computational models play an increasingly important role in modern biology. Such models typically involve many free parameters, and assigning their values is often a substantial obstacle to model development. Directly measuring in vivo biochemical parameters is difficult, and collectively fitting them to other experimental data often yields large parameter uncertainties. Nevertheless, in earlier work we showed in a growth-factor-signaling model that collective fitting could yield well-constrained predictions, even when it left individual parameters very poorly constrained. We also showed that the model had a "sloppy" spectrum of parameter sensitivities, with eigenvalues roughly evenly distributed over many decades. Here we use a collection of models from the literature to test whether such sloppy spectra are common in systems biology. Strikingly, we find that every model we examine has a sloppy spectrum of sensitivities. We also test several consequences of this sloppiness for building predictive models. In particular, sloppiness suggests that collective fits to even large amounts of ideal time-series data will often leave many parameters poorly constrained. Tests over our model collection are consistent with this suggestion. This difficulty with collective fits may seem to argue for direct parameter measurements, but sloppiness also implies that such measurements must be formidably precise and complete to usefully constrain many model predictions. We confirm this implication in our growth-factor-signaling model. Our results suggest that sloppy sensitivity spectra are universal in systems biology models. The prevalence of sloppiness highlights the power of collective fits and suggests that modelers should focus on predictions rather than on parameters.

Variation of a test's sensitivity and specificity with disease prevalence.

Science.gov (United States)

Leeflang, Mariska M G; Rutjes, Anne W S; Reitsma, Johannes B; Hooft, Lotty; Bossuyt, Patrick M M

2013-08-06

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the sensitivity and specificity of a diagnostic test may vary with disease prevalence. Our objective was to investigate the associations between disease prevalence and test sensitivity and specificity using studies of diagnostic accuracy. We used data from 23 meta-analyses, each of which included 10-39 studies (416 total). The median prevalence per review ranged from 1% to 77%. We evaluated the effects of prevalence on sensitivity and specificity using a bivariate random-effects model for each meta-analysis, with prevalence as a covariate. We estimated the overall effect of prevalence by pooling the effects using the inverse variance method. Within a given review, a change in prevalence from the lowest to highest value resulted in a corresponding change in sensitivity or specificity from 0 to 40 percentage points. This effect was statistically significant (p disease prevalence; there was no such systematic effect for sensitivity. The sensitivity and specificity of a test often vary with disease prevalence; this effect is likely to be the result of mechanisms, such as patient spectrum, that affect prevalence, sensitivity and specificity. Because it may be difficult to identify such mechanisms, clinicians should use prevalence as a guide when selecting studies that most closely match their situation.

An in vitro method for detecting chemical sensitization using human reconstructed skin models and its applicability to cosmetic, pharmaceutical, and medical device safety testing.

Science.gov (United States)

McKim, James M; Keller, Donald J; Gorski, Joel R

2012-12-01

Chemical sensitization is a serious condition caused by small reactive molecules and is characterized by a delayed type hypersensitivity known as allergic contact dermatitis (ACD). Contact with these molecules via dermal exposure represent a significant concern for chemical manufacturers. Recent legislation in the EU has created the need to develop non-animal alternative methods for many routine safety studies including sensitization. Although most of the alternative research has focused on pure chemicals that possess reasonable solubility properties, it is important for any successful in vitro method to have the ability to test compounds with low aqueous solubility. This is especially true for the medical device industry where device extracts must be prepared in both polar and non-polar vehicles in order to evaluate chemical sensitization. The aim of this research was to demonstrate the functionality and applicability of the human reconstituted skin models (MatTek Epiderm(®) and SkinEthic RHE) as a test system for the evaluation of chemical sensitization and its potential use for medical device testing. In addition, the development of the human 3D skin model should allow the in vitro sensitization assay to be used for finished product testing in the personal care, cosmetics, and pharmaceutical industries. This approach combines solubility, chemical reactivity, cytotoxicity, and activation of the Nrf2/ARE expression pathway to identify and categorize chemical sensitizers. Known chemical sensitizers representing extreme/strong-, moderate-, weak-, and non-sensitizing potency categories were first evaluated in the skin models at six exposure concentrations ranging from 0.1 to 2500 µM for 24 h. The expression of eight Nrf2/ARE, one AhR/XRE and two Nrf1/MRE controlled gene were measured by qRT-PCR. The fold-induction at each exposure concentration was combined with reactivity and cytotoxicity data to determine the sensitization potential. The results demonstrated that

Tree-Based Global Model Tests for Polytomous Rasch Models

Science.gov (United States)

Komboz, Basil; Strobl, Carolin; Zeileis, Achim

2018-01-01

Psychometric measurement models are only valid if measurement invariance holds between test takers of different groups. Global model tests, such as the well-established likelihood ratio (LR) test, are sensitive to violations of measurement invariance, such as differential item functioning and differential step functioning. However, these…

High sensitivity tests of the standard model for electroweak interactions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

The work done on this project focused on two LAMPF experiments. The MEGA experiment is a high-sensitivity search for the lepton family number violating decay μ → eγ to a sensitivity which, measured in terms of the branching ratio, BR = [μ → eγ]/[μ eν μ ν e ] ∼ 10 -13 , will be over two orders of magnitude better than previously reported values. The second is a precision measurement of the Michel ρ parameter from the positron energy spectrum of μ → eν μ ν e to test the predictions V-A theory of weak interactions. In this experiment the uncertainty in the measurement of the Michel ρ parameter is expected to be a factor of three lower than the present reported value. The detectors are operational, and data taking has begun

Variance-based sensitivity indices for models with dependent inputs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mara, Thierry A.; Tarantola, Stefano

2012-01-01

Computational models are intensively used in engineering for risk analysis or prediction of future outcomes. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are of great help in these purposes. Although several methods exist to perform variance-based sensitivity analysis of model output with independent inputs only a few are proposed in the literature in the case of dependent inputs. This is explained by the fact that the theoretical framework for the independent case is set and a univocal set of variance-based sensitivity indices is defined. In the present work, we propose a set of variance-based sensitivity indices to perform sensitivity analysis of models with dependent inputs. These measures allow us to distinguish between the mutual dependent contribution and the independent contribution of an input to the model response variance. Their definition relies on a specific orthogonalisation of the inputs and ANOVA-representations of the model output. In the applications, we show the interest of the new sensitivity indices for model simplification setting. - Highlights: ► Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are of great help in engineering. ► Several methods exist to perform variance-based sensitivity analysis of model output with independent inputs. ► We define a set of variance-based sensitivity indices for models with dependent inputs. ► Inputs mutual contributions are distinguished from their independent contributions. ► Analytical and computational tests are performed and discussed.

On the use of sensitivity tests in seismic tomography

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rawlinson, N.; Spakman, W.

2016-01-01

Sensitivity analysis with synthetic models is widely used in seismic tomography as a means for assessing the spatial resolution of solutions produced by, in most cases, linear or iterative nonlinear inversion schemes. The most common type of synthetic reconstruction test is the so-called

The mobilisation model and parameter sensitivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blok, B.M.

1993-12-01

In the PRObabillistic Safety Assessment (PROSA) of radioactive waste in a salt repository one of the nuclide release scenario's is the subrosion scenario. A new subrosion model SUBRECN has been developed. In this model the combined effect of a depth-dependent subrosion, glass dissolution, and salt rise has been taken into account. The subrosion model SUBRECN and the implementation of this model in the German computer program EMOS4 is presented. A new computer program PANTER is derived from EMOS4. PANTER models releases of radionuclides via subrosion from a disposal site in a salt pillar into the biosphere. For uncertainty and sensitivity analyses the new subrosion model Latin Hypercube Sampling has been used for determine the different values for the uncertain parameters. The influence of the uncertainty in the parameters on the dose calculations has been investigated by the following sensitivity techniques: Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficients, Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients, Standardised Rank Regression Coefficients, and the Smirnov Test. (orig./HP)

Parametric Sensitivity Tests- European PEM Fuel Cell Stack Test Procedures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Araya, Samuel Simon; Andreasen, Søren Juhl; Kær, Søren Knudsen

2014-01-01

performed based on test procedures proposed by a European project, Stack-Test. The sensitivity of a Nafion-based low temperature PEMFC stack’s performance to parametric changes was the main objective of the tests. Four crucial parameters for fuel cell operation were chosen; relative humidity, temperature......As fuel cells are increasingly commercialized for various applications, harmonized and industry-relevant test procedures are necessary to benchmark tests and to ensure comparability of stack performance results from different parties. This paper reports the results of parametric sensitivity tests......, pressure, and stoichiometry at varying current density. Furthermore, procedures for polarization curve recording were also tested both in ascending and descending current directions....

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Validation

Science.gov (United States)

Sarrazin, Fanny; Pianosi, Francesca; Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten

2015-04-01

Global Sensitivity Analysis aims to characterize the impact that variations in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). In sampling-based Global Sensitivity Analysis, the sample size has to be chosen carefully in order to obtain reliable sensitivity estimates while spending computational resources efficiently. Furthermore, insensitive parameters are typically identified through the definition of a screening threshold: the theoretical value of their sensitivity index is zero but in a sampling-base framework they regularly take non-zero values. There is little guidance available for these two steps in environmental modelling though. The objective of the present study is to support modellers in making appropriate choices, regarding both sample size and screening threshold, so that a robust sensitivity analysis can be implemented. We performed sensitivity analysis for the parameters of three hydrological models with increasing level of complexity (Hymod, HBV and SWAT), and tested three widely used sensitivity analysis methods (Elementary Effect Test or method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis). We defined criteria based on a bootstrap approach to assess three different types of convergence: the convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices, of the ranking (the ordering among the parameters) and of the screening (the identification of the insensitive parameters). We investigated the screening threshold through the definition of a validation procedure. The results showed that full convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices is not necessarily needed to rank or to screen the model input factors. Furthermore, typical values of the sample sizes that are reported in the literature can be well below the sample sizes that actually ensure convergence of ranking and screening.

Automated differentiation of computer models for sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Worley, B.A.

1990-01-01

Sensitivity analysis of reactor physics computer models is an established discipline after more than twenty years of active development of generalized perturbations theory based on direct and adjoint methods. Many reactor physics models have been enhanced to solve for sensitivities of model results to model data. The calculated sensitivities are usually normalized first derivatives although some codes are capable of solving for higher-order sensitivities. The purpose of this paper is to report on the development and application of the GRESS system for automating the implementation of the direct and adjoint techniques into existing FORTRAN computer codes. The GRESS system was developed at ORNL to eliminate the costly man-power intensive effort required to implement the direct and adjoint techniques into already-existing FORTRAN codes. GRESS has been successfully tested for a number of codes over a wide range of applications and presently operates on VAX machines under both VMS and UNIX operating systems

Automated differentiation of computer models for sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Worley, B.A.

1991-01-01

Sensitivity analysis of reactor physics computer models is an established discipline after more than twenty years of active development of generalized perturbations theory based on direct and adjoint methods. Many reactor physics models have been enhanced to solve for sensitivities of model results to model data. The calculated sensitivities are usually normalized first derivatives, although some codes are capable of solving for higher-order sensitivities. The purpose of this paper is to report on the development and application of the GRESS system for automating the implementation of the direct and adjoint techniques into existing FORTRAN computer codes. The GRESS system was developed at ORNL to eliminate the costly man-power intensive effort required to implement the direct and adjoint techniques into already-existing FORTRAN codes. GRESS has been successfully tested for a number of codes over a wide range of applications and presently operates on VAX machines under both VMS and UNIX operating systems. (author). 9 refs, 1 tab

Personalization of models with many model parameters: an efficient sensitivity analysis approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Donders, W P; Huberts, W; van de Vosse, F N; Delhaas, T

2015-10-01

Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis are indispensable for patient-specific applications of models that enhance diagnosis or aid decision-making. Variance-based sensitivity analysis methods, which apportion each fraction of the output uncertainty (variance) to the effects of individual input parameters or their interactions, are considered the gold standard. The variance portions are called the Sobol sensitivity indices and can be estimated by a Monte Carlo (MC) approach (e.g., Saltelli's method [1]) or by employing a metamodel (e.g., the (generalized) polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE) [2, 3]). All these methods require a large number of model evaluations when estimating the Sobol sensitivity indices for models with many parameters [4]. To reduce the computational cost, we introduce a two-step approach. In the first step, a subset of important parameters is identified for each output of interest using the screening method of Morris [5]. In the second step, a quantitative variance-based sensitivity analysis is performed using gPCE. Efficient sampling strategies are introduced to minimize the number of model runs required to obtain the sensitivity indices for models considering multiple outputs. The approach is tested using a model that was developed for predicting post-operative flows after creation of a vascular access for renal failure patients. We compare the sensitivity indices obtained with the novel two-step approach with those obtained from a reference analysis that applies Saltelli's MC method. The two-step approach was found to yield accurate estimates of the sensitivity indices at two orders of magnitude lower computational cost. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Context Sensitive Modeling of Cancer Drug Sensitivity.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bo-Juen Chen

Full Text Available Recent screening of drug sensitivity in large panels of cancer cell lines provides a valuable resource towards developing algorithms that predict drug response. Since more samples provide increased statistical power, most approaches to prediction of drug sensitivity pool multiple cancer types together without distinction. However, pan-cancer results can be misleading due to the confounding effects of tissues or cancer subtypes. On the other hand, independent analysis for each cancer-type is hampered by small sample size. To balance this trade-off, we present CHER (Contextual Heterogeneity Enabled Regression, an algorithm that builds predictive models for drug sensitivity by selecting predictive genomic features and deciding which ones should-and should not-be shared across different cancers, tissues and drugs. CHER provides significantly more accurate models of drug sensitivity than comparable elastic-net-based models. Moreover, CHER provides better insight into the underlying biological processes by finding a sparse set of shared and type-specific genomic features.

Noise sensitivity and diminished health: Testing moderators and mediators of the relationship

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erin M Hill

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The concept of noise sensitivity emerged in public health and psychoacoustic research to help explain individual differences in reactions to noise. Noise sensitivity has been associated with health problems, but the mechanisms underlying this relationship have yet to be fully examined. Participants (n = 1102 were residents of Auckland, New Zealand, who completed questionnaires and returned them through the post. Models of noise sensitivity and health were tested in the analyses using bootstrapping methods to examine indirect effects. Results indicated that gender and noise exposure were not significant moderators in the model. Perceived stress and sleep problems were significant mediators of the relationship between noise sensitivity and subjective health complaints, even after controlling for the influence of neuroticism. However, the relationship between noise sensitivity and mental health complaints (anxiety and depression was accounted for by the variance explained by neuroticism. Overall, this study provides considerable understanding of the relationship between noise sensitivity and health problems and identifies areas for further research in the field.

Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Alternative Rn-222 Flux Density Models Used in Performance Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greg J. Shott, Vefa Yucel, Lloyd Desotell Non-Nstec Authors: G. Pyles and Jon Carilli

2007-01-01

Performance assessments for the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site on the Nevada Test Site have used three different mathematical models to estimate Rn-222 flux density. This study describes the performance, uncertainty, and sensitivity of the three models which include the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide 3.64 analytical method and two numerical methods. The uncertainty of each model was determined by Monte Carlo simulation using Latin hypercube sampling. The global sensitivity was investigated using Morris one-at-time screening method, sample-based correlation and regression methods, the variance-based extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, and Sobol's sensitivity indices. The models were found to produce similar estimates of the mean and median flux density, but to have different uncertainties and sensitivities. When the Rn-222 effective diffusion coefficient was estimated using five different published predictive models, the radon flux density models were found to be most sensitive to the effective diffusion coefficient model selected, the emanation coefficient, and the radionuclide inventory. Using a site-specific measured effective diffusion coefficient significantly reduced the output uncertainty. When a site-specific effective-diffusion coefficient was used, the models were most sensitive to the emanation coefficient and the radionuclide inventory

Modelling survival: exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight; Cedergreen, Nina; Charles, Sandrine; Ducrot, Virginie; Focks, Andreas; Gabsi, Faten; Gergs, André; Goussen, Benoit; Jager, Tjalling; Kramer, Nynke I; Nyman, Anna-Maija; Poulsen, Veronique; Reichenberger, Stefan; Schäfer, Ralf B; Van den Brink, Paul J; Veltman, Karin; Vogel, Sören; Zimmer, Elke I; Preuss, Thomas G

2016-07-06

The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test the ability of GUTS to predict survival of aquatic organisms across different pesticide exposure patterns, time scales and species. Firstly, using synthetic data, we identified experimental data requirements which allow for the estimation of all parameters of the GUTS proper model. Secondly, we assessed how well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates to build species sensitivity distributions for different exposure patterns. We find that GUTS adequately predicts survival across exposure patterns that vary over time. When toxicity is assessed for time-variable concentrations species may differ in their responses depending on the exposure profile. This can result in different species sensitivity rankings and safe levels. The interplay of exposure pattern and species sensitivity deserves systematic investigation in order to better understand how organisms respond to stress, including humans.

Precipitates/Salts Model Sensitivity Calculation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mariner, P.

2001-01-01

The objective and scope of this calculation is to assist Performance Assessment Operations and the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) Department in modeling the geochemical effects of evaporation on potential seepage waters within a potential repository drift. This work is developed and documented using procedure AP-3.12Q, ''Calculations'', in support of ''Technical Work Plan For Engineered Barrier System Department Modeling and Testing FY 02 Work Activities'' (BSC 2001a). The specific objective of this calculation is to examine the sensitivity and uncertainties of the Precipitates/Salts model. The Precipitates/Salts model is documented in an Analysis/Model Report (AMR), ''In-Drift Precipitates/Salts Analysis'' (BSC 2001b). The calculation in the current document examines the effects of starting water composition, mineral suppressions, and the fugacity of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) on the chemical evolution of water in the drift

Differential neuropsychological test sensitivity to left temporal lobe epilepsy.

Science.gov (United States)

Loring, David W; Strauss, Esther; Hermann, Bruce P; Barr, William B; Perrine, Kenneth; Trenerry, Max R; Chelune, Gordon; Westerveld, Michael; Lee, Gregory P; Meador, Kimford J; Bowden, Stephen C

2008-05-01

We examined the sensitivity of the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test (AVLT), California Verbal Learning Test (CVLT), Boston Naming Test (BNT), and Multilingual Aphasia Examination Visual Naming subtest (MAE VN) to lateralized temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) in patients who subsequently underwent anterior temporal lobectomy. For the AVLT (n = 189), left TLE patients performed more poorly than their right TLE counterparts [left TLE = 42.9 (10.6), right TLE = 47.7 (9.9); p LTE = 40.7 (11.1), right TLE = 43.8 (9.9); (p measures of confrontation naming ability [BNT: left LTE = 43.1 (8.9), right TLE = 48.1 (8.9); p < .001 (Cohen's d = .56); MAE VN: left TLE = 42.2, right TLE = 45.6, p = .02 (Cohen's d = .36)]. When these data were modeled in independent logistic regression analyses, the AVLT and BNT both significantly predicted side of seizure focus, although the positive likelihood ratios were modest. In the subset of 108 patients receiving both BNT and AVLT, the AVLT was the only significant predictor of seizure laterality, suggesting individual patient variability regarding whether naming or memory testing may be more sensitive to lateralized TLE.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the PATHWAY radionuclide transport model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otis, M.D.

1983-01-01

Procedures were developed for the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a dynamic model of radionuclide transport through human food chains. Uncertainty in model predictions was estimated by propagation of parameter uncertainties using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. Sensitivity of model predictions to individual parameters was investigated using the partial correlation coefficient of each parameter with model output. Random values produced for the uncertainty analysis were used in the correlation analysis for sensitivity. These procedures were applied to the PATHWAY model which predicts concentrations of radionuclides in foods grown in Nevada and Utah and exposed to fallout during the period of atmospheric nuclear weapons testing in Nevada. Concentrations and time-integrated concentrations of iodine-131, cesium-136, and cesium-137 in milk and other foods were investigated. 9 figs., 13 tabs

Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of Statistical Models with Missing Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Hongtu; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Tang, Niansheng

2014-04-01

Methods for handling missing data depend strongly on the mechanism that generated the missing values, such as missing completely at random (MCAR) or missing at random (MAR), as well as other distributional and modeling assumptions at various stages. It is well known that the resulting estimates and tests may be sensitive to these assumptions as well as to outlying observations. In this paper, we introduce various perturbations to modeling assumptions and individual observations, and then develop a formal sensitivity analysis to assess these perturbations in the Bayesian analysis of statistical models with missing data. We develop a geometric framework, called the Bayesian perturbation manifold, to characterize the intrinsic structure of these perturbations. We propose several intrinsic influence measures to perform sensitivity analysis and quantify the effect of various perturbations to statistical models. We use the proposed sensitivity analysis procedure to systematically investigate the tenability of the non-ignorable missing at random (NMAR) assumption. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate our methods, and a dataset is analyzed to illustrate the use of our diagnostic measures.

QSAR models of human data can enrich or replace LLNA testing for human skin sensitization

OpenAIRE

Alves, Vinicius M.; Capuzzi, Stephen J.; Muratov, Eugene; Braga, Rodolpho C.; Thornton, Thomas; Fourches, Denis; Strickland, Judy; Kleinstreuer, Nicole; Andrade, Carolina H.; Tropsha, Alexander

2016-01-01

Skin sensitization is a major environmental and occupational health hazard. Although many chemicals have been evaluated in humans, there have been no efforts to model these data to date. We have compiled, curated, analyzed, and compared the available human and LLNA data. Using these data, we have developed reliable computational models and applied them for virtual screening of chemical libraries to identify putative skin sensitizers. The overall concordance between murine LLNA and human skin ...

Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Alternative Rn-222 Flux Density Models Used in Performance Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Greg J. Shott, Vefa Yucel, Lloyd Desotell

2007-06-01

Performance assessments for the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site on the Nevada Test Site have used three different mathematical models to estimate Rn-222 flux density. This study describes the performance, uncertainty, and sensitivity of the three models which include the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide 3.64 analytical method and two numerical methods. The uncertainty of each model was determined by Monte Carlo simulation using Latin hypercube sampling. The global sensitivity was investigated using Morris one-at-time screening method, sample-based correlation and regression methods, the variance-based extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, and Sobol's sensitivity indices. The models were found to produce similar estimates of the mean and median flux density, but to have different uncertainties and sensitivities. When the Rn-222 effective diffusion coefficient was estimated using five different published predictive models, the radon flux density models were found to be most sensitive to the effective diffusion coefficient model selected, the emanation coefficient, and the radionuclide inventory. Using a site-specific measured effective diffusion coefficient significantly reduced the output uncertainty. When a site-specific effective-diffusion coefficient was used, the models were most sensitive to the emanation coefficient and the radionuclide inventory.

An in vitro human skin test for assessing sensitization potential.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, S S; Wang, X N; Fielding, M; Kerry, A; Dickinson, I; Munuswamy, R; Kimber, I; Dickinson, A M

2016-05-01

Sensitization to chemicals resulting in an allergy is an important health issue. The current gold-standard method for identification and characterization of skin-sensitizing chemicals was the mouse local lymph node assay (LLNA). However, for a number of reasons there has been an increasing imperative to develop alternative approaches to hazard identification that do not require the use of animals. Here we describe a human in-vitro skin explant test for identification of sensitization hazards and the assessment of relative skin sensitizing potency. This method measures histological damage in human skin as a readout of the immune response induced by the test material. Using this approach we have measured responses to 44 chemicals including skin sensitizers, pre/pro-haptens, respiratory sensitizers, non-sensitizing chemicals (including skin-irritants) and previously misclassified compounds. Based on comparisons with the LLNA, the skin explant test gave 95% specificity, 95% sensitivity, 95% concordance with a correlation coefficient of 0.9. The same specificity and sensitivity were achieved for comparison of results with published human sensitization data with a correlation coefficient of 0.91. The test also successfully identified nickel sulphate as a human skin sensitizer, which was misclassified as negative in the LLNA. In addition, sensitizers and non-sensitizers identified as positive or negative by the skin explant test have induced high/low T cell proliferation and IFNγ production, respectively. Collectively, the data suggests the human in-vitro skin explant test could provide the basis for a novel approach for characterization of the sensitizing activity as a first step in the risk assessment process. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sensitivity analysis of MIDAS tests using SPACE code. Effect of nodalization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eom, Shin; Oh, Seung-Jong; Diab, Aya

2018-01-01

The nodalization sensitivity analysis for the ECCS (Emergency Core Cooling System) bypass phe�nomena was performed using the SPACE (Safety and Performance Analysis CodE) thermal hydraulic analysis computer code. The results of MIDAS (Multi-�dimensional Investigation in Downcomer Annulus Simulation) test were used. The MIDAS test was conducted by the KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) for the performance evaluation of the ECC (Emergency Core Cooling) bypass phenomenon in the DVI (Direct Vessel Injection) system. The main aim of this study is to examine the sensitivity of the SPACE code results to the number of thermal hydraulic channels used to model the annulus region in the MIDAS experiment. The numerical model involves three nodalization cases (4, 6, and 12 channels) and the result show that the effect of nodalization on the bypass fraction for the high steam flow rate MIDAS tests is minimal. For computational efficiency, a 4 channel representation is recommended for the SPACE code nodalization. For the low steam flow rate tests, the SPACE code over-�predicts the bypass fraction irrespective of the nodalization finesse. The over-�prediction at low steam flow may be attributed to the difficulty to accurately represent the flow regime in the vicinity of the broken cold leg.

Sensitivity analysis of MIDAS tests using SPACE code. Effect of nodalization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eom, Shin; Oh, Seung-Jong; Diab, Aya [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School (KINGS), Ulsan (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of NPP Engineering

2018-02-15

The nodalization sensitivity analysis for the ECCS (Emergency Core Cooling System) bypass phe�nomena was performed using the SPACE (Safety and Performance Analysis CodE) thermal hydraulic analysis computer code. The results of MIDAS (Multi-�dimensional Investigation in Downcomer Annulus Simulation) test were used. The MIDAS test was conducted by the KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) for the performance evaluation of the ECC (Emergency Core Cooling) bypass phenomenon in the DVI (Direct Vessel Injection) system. The main aim of this study is to examine the sensitivity of the SPACE code results to the number of thermal hydraulic channels used to model the annulus region in the MIDAS experiment. The numerical model involves three nodalization cases (4, 6, and 12 channels) and the result show that the effect of nodalization on the bypass fraction for the high steam flow rate MIDAS tests is minimal. For computational efficiency, a 4 channel representation is recommended for the SPACE code nodalization. For the low steam flow rate tests, the SPACE code over-�predicts the bypass fraction irrespective of the nodalization finesse. The over-�prediction at low steam flow may be attributed to the difficulty to accurately represent the flow regime in the vicinity of the broken cold leg.

State of the art in non-animal approaches for skin sensitization testing: from individual test methods towards testing strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Ezendam, Janine; Braakhuis, Hedwig M; Vandebriel, Rob J

2016-12-01

The hazard assessment of skin sensitizers relies mainly on animal testing, but much progress is made in the development, validation and regulatory acceptance and implementation of non-animal predictive approaches. In this review, we provide an update on the available computational tools and animal-free test methods for the prediction of skin sensitization hazard. These individual test methods address mostly one mechanistic step of the process of skin sensitization induction. The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) for skin sensitization describes the key events (KEs) that lead to skin sensitization. In our review, we have clustered the available test methods according to the KE they inform: the molecular initiating event (MIE/KE1)-protein binding, KE2-keratinocyte activation, KE3-dendritic cell activation and KE4-T cell activation and proliferation. In recent years, most progress has been made in the development and validation of in vitro assays that address KE2 and KE3. No standardized in vitro assays for T cell activation are available; thus, KE4 cannot be measured in vitro. Three non-animal test methods, addressing either the MIE, KE2 or KE3, are accepted as OECD test guidelines, and this has accelerated the development of integrated or defined approaches for testing and assessment (e.g. testing strategies). The majority of these approaches are mechanism-based, since they combine results from multiple test methods and/or computational tools that address different KEs of the AOP to estimate skin sensitization potential and sometimes potency. Other approaches are based on statistical tools. Until now, eleven different testing strategies have been published, the majority using the same individual information sources. Our review shows that some of the defined approaches to testing and assessment are able to accurately predict skin sensitization hazard, sometimes even more accurate than the currently used animal test. A few defined approaches are developed to provide an

Precipitates/Salts Model Sensitivity Calculation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

P. Mariner

2001-12-20

The objective and scope of this calculation is to assist Performance Assessment Operations and the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) Department in modeling the geochemical effects of evaporation on potential seepage waters within a potential repository drift. This work is developed and documented using procedure AP-3.12Q, ''Calculations'', in support of ''Technical Work Plan For Engineered Barrier System Department Modeling and Testing FY 02 Work Activities'' (BSC 2001a). The specific objective of this calculation is to examine the sensitivity and uncertainties of the Precipitates/Salts model. The Precipitates/Salts model is documented in an Analysis/Model Report (AMR), ''In-Drift Precipitates/Salts Analysis'' (BSC 2001b). The calculation in the current document examines the effects of starting water composition, mineral suppressions, and the fugacity of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) on the chemical evolution of water in the drift.

Sensitivity Tests for the Unprotected Events of the Prototype Gen-IV SFR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Choi, Chiwoong; Lee, Kwilim; Jeong, Jaeho; Yu, Jin; An, Sangjun; Lee, Seung Won; Chang, Wonpyo; Ha, Kwiseok [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2014-10-15

Unprotected Transient Over Power, (UTOP), Unprotected Loss Of Flow (ULOF), and Unprotected Loss Of Heat Sink (ULOHS) are selected as ATWS events. Among these accidents, the ULOF event shows the lowest clad temperature. However, the ULOHS event showed the highest peak clad temperature, due to the positive CRDL/RV expansion reactivity feedback and insufficient DHRS capacity. In this study, the sensitivity tests are conducted. In the case of the UTOP event, a sensitivity test for the reactivity insertion amount and rate were conducted. This analysis can give a requirement for margin of control rod stop system (CRSS). Currently, the reactivity feedback model for the PGSFR is not validated yet. However, the reactivity feedback models in the MARS-LMR are validating with various plant-based data including EBR-II SHRT. The ATWS events for the PGSFR classified in the design extended condition including UTOP, ULOF, and ULOHS are analyzed with MARS-LMR. In this study, the sensitivity tests for reactivity insertion amount and rate in the UTOP event are conducted. The reactivity insertion amount is obviously an influential parameter. The reactivity insertion amount can give a requirement for design of the CRSS, therefore, this sensitivity result is very important to the CRSS. In addition, sensitivity tests for the weighting factor in the radial expansion reactivity model are carried out. The weighting factor for a grid plate, W{sub GP}, which means contribution of feedback in the grid plate is changed for all unprotected events. The grid plate expansion is governed by a core inlet temperature. As the W{sub GP} is increased, the power in the UTOP and the ULOF is increased, however, the power in the ULOHS is decreased. The higher power during transient means lower reactivity feedback and smaller expansion. Thus, the core outlet temperature rise is dominant in the UTOP and ULOF events, however, the core inlet temperature rise is dominant in the ULOHS. Therefore, the grid plate

Sensitivity analysis of an Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor control rod model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scott, M.; Green, P.L.; O’Driscoll, D.; Worden, K.; Sims, N.D.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A model was made of the AGR control rod mechanism. • The aim was to better understand the performance when shutting down the reactor. • The model showed good agreement with test data. • Sensitivity analysis was carried out. • The results demonstrated the robustness of the system. - Abstract: A model has been made of the primary shutdown system of an Advanced Gas-cooled Reactor nuclear power station. The aim of this paper is to explore the use of sensitivity analysis techniques on this model. The two motivations for performing sensitivity analysis are to quantify how much individual uncertain parameters are responsible for the model output uncertainty, and to make predictions about what could happen if one or several parameters were to change. Global sensitivity analysis techniques were used based on Gaussian process emulation; the software package GEM-SA was used to calculate the main effects, the main effect index and the total sensitivity index for each parameter and these were compared to local sensitivity analysis results. The results suggest that the system performance is resistant to adverse changes in several parameters at once.

Sensitivity analysis for near-surface disposal in argillaceous media using NAMMU-HYROCOIN Level 3-Test case 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, D.R.; Paige, R.W.

1988-07-01

HYDROCOIN is an international project for comparing groundwater flow models and modelling strategies. Level 3 of the project concerns the application of groundwater flow models to repository performance assessment with emphasis on the treatment of sensitivity and uncertainty in models and data. Level 3, test case 1 concerns sensitivity analysis of the groundwater flow around a radioactive waste repository situated in a near surface argillaceous formation. Work on this test case has been carried out by Harwell and will be reported in full in the near future. This report presents the results obtained using the computer program NAMMU. (author)

Sensitivity of Fit Indices to Misspecification in Growth Curve Models

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Wei; West, Stephen G.

2010-01-01

This study investigated the sensitivity of fit indices to model misspecification in within-individual covariance structure, between-individual covariance structure, and marginal mean structure in growth curve models. Five commonly used fit indices were examined, including the likelihood ratio test statistic, root mean square error of…

Development of an artificial neural network model for risk assessment of skin sensitization using human cell line activation test, direct peptide reactivity assay, KeratinoSens™ and in silico structure alert parameter.

Science.gov (United States)

Hirota, Morihiko; Ashikaga, Takao; Kouzuki, Hirokazu

2018-04-01

It is important to predict the potential of cosmetic ingredients to cause skin sensitization, and in accordance with the European Union cosmetic directive for the replacement of animal tests, several in vitro tests based on the adverse outcome pathway have been developed for hazard identification, such as the direct peptide reactivity assay, KeratinoSens™ and the human cell line activation test. Here, we describe the development of an artificial neural network (ANN) prediction model for skin sensitization risk assessment based on the integrated testing strategy concept, using direct peptide reactivity assay, KeratinoSens™, human cell line activation test and an in silico or structure alert parameter. We first investigated the relationship between published murine local lymph node assay EC3 values, which represent skin sensitization potency, and in vitro test results using a panel of about 134 chemicals for which all the required data were available. Predictions based on ANN analysis using combinations of parameters from all three in vitro tests showed a good correlation with local lymph node assay EC3 values. However, when the ANN model was applied to a testing set of 28 chemicals that had not been included in the training set, predicted EC3s were overestimated for some chemicals. Incorporation of an additional in silico or structure alert descriptor (obtained with TIMES-M or Toxtree software) in the ANN model improved the results. Our findings suggest that the ANN model based on the integrated testing strategy concept could be useful for evaluating the skin sensitization potential. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final repository performance assessment models (MOSEL)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spiessl, Sabine; Becker, Dirk-Alexander

2017-06-01

Sensitivity analysis is a mathematical means for analysing the sensitivities of a computational model to variations of its input parameters. Thus, it is a tool for managing parameter uncertainties. It is often performed probabilistically as global sensitivity analysis, running the model a large number of times with different parameter value combinations. Going along with the increase of computer capabilities, global sensitivity analysis has been a field of mathematical research for some decades. In the field of final repository modelling, probabilistic analysis is regarded a key element of a modern safety case. An appropriate uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can help identify parameters that need further dedicated research to reduce the overall uncertainty, generally leads to better system understanding and can thus contribute to building confidence in the models. The purpose of the project described here was to systematically investigate different numerical and graphical techniques of sensitivity analysis with typical repository models, which produce a distinctly right-skewed and tailed output distribution and can exhibit a highly nonlinear, non-monotonic or even non-continuous behaviour. For the investigations presented here, three test models were defined that describe generic, but typical repository systems. A number of numerical and graphical sensitivity analysis methods were selected for investigation and, in part, modified or adapted. Different sampling methods were applied to produce various parameter samples of different sizes and many individual runs with the test models were performed. The results were evaluated with the different methods of sensitivity analysis. On this basis the methods were compared and assessed. This report gives an overview of the background and the applied methods. The results obtained for three typical test models are presented and explained; conclusions in view of practical applications are drawn. At the end, a recommendation

Investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final repository performance assessment models (MOSEL)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Spiessl, Sabine; Becker, Dirk-Alexander

2017-06-15

Sensitivity analysis is a mathematical means for analysing the sensitivities of a computational model to variations of its input parameters. Thus, it is a tool for managing parameter uncertainties. It is often performed probabilistically as global sensitivity analysis, running the model a large number of times with different parameter value combinations. Going along with the increase of computer capabilities, global sensitivity analysis has been a field of mathematical research for some decades. In the field of final repository modelling, probabilistic analysis is regarded a key element of a modern safety case. An appropriate uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can help identify parameters that need further dedicated research to reduce the overall uncertainty, generally leads to better system understanding and can thus contribute to building confidence in the models. The purpose of the project described here was to systematically investigate different numerical and graphical techniques of sensitivity analysis with typical repository models, which produce a distinctly right-skewed and tailed output distribution and can exhibit a highly nonlinear, non-monotonic or even non-continuous behaviour. For the investigations presented here, three test models were defined that describe generic, but typical repository systems. A number of numerical and graphical sensitivity analysis methods were selected for investigation and, in part, modified or adapted. Different sampling methods were applied to produce various parameter samples of different sizes and many individual runs with the test models were performed. The results were evaluated with the different methods of sensitivity analysis. On this basis the methods were compared and assessed. This report gives an overview of the background and the applied methods. The results obtained for three typical test models are presented and explained; conclusions in view of practical applications are drawn. At the end, a recommendation

Efficient Noninferiority Testing Procedures for Simultaneously Assessing Sensitivity and Specificity of Two Diagnostic Tests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guogen Shan

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Sensitivity and specificity are often used to assess the performance of a diagnostic test with binary outcomes. Wald-type test statistics have been proposed for testing sensitivity and specificity individually. In the presence of a gold standard, simultaneous comparison between two diagnostic tests for noninferiority of sensitivity and specificity based on an asymptotic approach has been studied by Chen et al. (2003. However, the asymptotic approach may suffer from unsatisfactory type I error control as observed from many studies, especially in small to medium sample settings. In this paper, we compare three unconditional approaches for simultaneously testing sensitivity and specificity. They are approaches based on estimation, maximization, and a combination of estimation and maximization. Although the estimation approach does not guarantee type I error, it has satisfactory performance with regard to type I error control. The other two unconditional approaches are exact. The approach based on estimation and maximization is generally more powerful than the approach based on maximization.

Sensitivity analysis of machine-learning models of hydrologic time series

Science.gov (United States)

O'Reilly, A. M.

2017-12-01

Sensitivity analysis traditionally has been applied to assessing model response to perturbations in model parameters, where the parameters are those model input variables adjusted during calibration. Unlike physics-based models where parameters represent real phenomena, the equivalent of parameters for machine-learning models are simply mathematical "knobs" that are automatically adjusted during training/testing/verification procedures. Thus the challenge of extracting knowledge of hydrologic system functionality from machine-learning models lies in their very nature, leading to the label "black box." Sensitivity analysis of the forcing-response behavior of machine-learning models, however, can provide understanding of how the physical phenomena represented by model inputs affect the physical phenomena represented by model outputs.As part of a previous study, hybrid spectral-decomposition artificial neural network (ANN) models were developed to simulate the observed behavior of hydrologic response contained in multidecadal datasets of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow. Model inputs used moving window averages (MWA) to represent various frequencies and frequency-band components of time series of rainfall and groundwater use. Using these forcing time series, the MWA-ANN models were trained to predict time series of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at 51 sites in central Florida, USA. A time series of sensitivities for each MWA-ANN model was produced by perturbing forcing time-series and computing the change in response time-series per unit change in perturbation. Variations in forcing-response sensitivities are evident between types (lake, groundwater level, or spring), spatially (among sites of the same type), and temporally. Two generally common characteristics among sites are more uniform sensitivities to rainfall over time and notable increases in sensitivities to groundwater usage during significant drought periods.

Sensitivity of submersed freshwater macrophytes and endpoints in laboratory toxicity tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arts, Gertie H.P.; Belgers, J. Dick M.; Hoekzema, Conny H.; Thissen, Jac T.N.M.

2008-01-01

The toxicological sensitivity and variability of a range of macrophyte endpoints were statistically tested with data from chronic, non-axenic, macrophyte toxicity tests. Five submersed freshwater macrophytes, four pesticides/biocides and 13 endpoints were included in the statistical analyses. Root endpoints, reflecting root growth, were most sensitive in the toxicity tests, while endpoints relating to biomass, growth and shoot length were less sensitive. The endpoints with the lowest coefficients of variation were not necessarily the endpoints, which were toxicologically most sensitive. Differences in sensitivity were in the range of 10-1000 for different macrophyte-specific endpoints. No macrophyte species was consistently the most sensitive. Criteria to select endpoints in macrophyte toxicity tests should include toxicological sensitivity, variance and ecological relevance. Hence, macrophyte toxicity tests should comprise an array of endpoints, including very sensitive endpoints like those relating to root growth. - A range of endpoints is more representative of macrophyte fitness than biomass and growth only

Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), with application to hydrologic models

Science.gov (United States)

Rakovec, O.; Hill, M. C.; Clark, M. P.; Weerts, A. H.; Teuling, A. J.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2014-01-01

This paper presents a hybrid local-global sensitivity analysis method termed the Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), which is used here to identify important and unimportant parameters and evaluate how model parameter importance changes as parameter values change. DELSA uses derivative-based "local" methods to obtain the distribution of parameter sensitivity across the parameter space, which promotes consideration of sensitivity analysis results in the context of simulated dynamics. This work presents DELSA, discusses how it relates to existing methods, and uses two hydrologic test cases to compare its performance with the popular global, variance-based Sobol' method. The first test case is a simple nonlinear reservoir model with two parameters. The second test case involves five alternative "bucket-style" hydrologic models with up to 14 parameters applied to a medium-sized catchment (200 km2) in the Belgian Ardennes. Results show that in both examples, Sobol' and DELSA identify similar important and unimportant parameters, with DELSA enabling more detailed insight at much lower computational cost. For example, in the real-world problem the time delay in runoff is the most important parameter in all models, but DELSA shows that for about 20% of parameter sets it is not important at all and alternative mechanisms and parameters dominate. Moreover, the time delay was identified as important in regions producing poor model fits, whereas other parameters were identified as more important in regions of the parameter space producing better model fits. The ability to understand how parameter importance varies through parameter space is critical to inform decisions about, for example, additional data collection and model development. The ability to perform such analyses with modest computational requirements provides exciting opportunities to evaluate complicated models as well as many alternative models.

Comparing sensitivity analysis methods to advance lumped watershed model identification and evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Tang

2007-01-01

Full Text Available This study seeks to identify sensitivity tools that will advance our understanding of lumped hydrologic models for the purposes of model improvement, calibration efficiency and improved measurement schemes. Four sensitivity analysis methods were tested: (1 local analysis using parameter estimation software (PEST, (2 regional sensitivity analysis (RSA, (3 analysis of variance (ANOVA, and (4 Sobol's method. The methods' relative efficiencies and effectiveness have been analyzed and compared. These four sensitivity methods were applied to the lumped Sacramento soil moisture accounting model (SAC-SMA coupled with SNOW-17. Results from this study characterize model sensitivities for two medium sized watersheds within the Juniata River Basin in Pennsylvania, USA. Comparative results for the 4 sensitivity methods are presented for a 3-year time series with 1 h, 6 h, and 24 h time intervals. The results of this study show that model parameter sensitivities are heavily impacted by the choice of analysis method as well as the model time interval. Differences between the two adjacent watersheds also suggest strong influences of local physical characteristics on the sensitivity methods' results. This study also contributes a comprehensive assessment of the repeatability, robustness, efficiency, and ease-of-implementation of the four sensitivity methods. Overall ANOVA and Sobol's method were shown to be superior to RSA and PEST. Relative to one another, ANOVA has reduced computational requirements and Sobol's method yielded more robust sensitivity rankings.

An adaptive Mantel-Haenszel test for sensitivity analysis in observational studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenbaum, Paul R; Small, Dylan S

2017-06-01

In a sensitivity analysis in an observational study with a binary outcome, is it better to use all of the data or to focus on subgroups that are expected to experience the largest treatment effects? The answer depends on features of the data that may be difficult to anticipate, a trade-off between unknown effect-sizes and known sample sizes. We propose a sensitivity analysis for an adaptive test similar to the Mantel-Haenszel test. The adaptive test performs two highly correlated analyses, one focused analysis using a subgroup, one combined analysis using all of the data, correcting for multiple testing using the joint distribution of the two test statistics. Because the two component tests are highly correlated, this correction for multiple testing is small compared with, for instance, the Bonferroni inequality. The test has the maximum design sensitivity of two component tests. A simulation evaluates the power of a sensitivity analysis using the adaptive test. Two examples are presented. An R package, sensitivity2x2xk, implements the procedure. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Sensitivity analysis of a complex, proposed geologic waste disposal system using the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lu Yichi; Mohanty, Sitakanta

2001-01-01

The Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) method has been used to perform a sensitivity analysis of a computer model developed for conducting total system performance assessment of the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA. The computer model has a large number of random input parameters with assigned probability density functions, which may or may not be uniform, for representing data uncertainty. The FAST method, which was previously applied to models with parameters represented by the uniform probability distribution function only, has been modified to be applied to models with nonuniform probability distribution functions. Using an example problem with a small input parameter set, several aspects of the FAST method, such as the effects of integer frequency sets and random phase shifts in the functional transformations, and the number of discrete sampling points (equivalent to the number of model executions) on the ranking of the input parameters have been investigated. Because the number of input parameters of the computer model under investigation is too large to be handled by the FAST method, less important input parameters were first screened out using the Morris method. The FAST method was then used to rank the remaining parameters. The validity of the parameter ranking by the FAST method was verified using the conditional complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) of the output. The CCDF results revealed that the introduction of random phase shifts into the functional transformations, proposed by previous investigators to disrupt the repetitiveness of search curves, does not necessarily improve the sensitivity analysis results because it destroys the orthogonality of the trigonometric functions, which is required for Fourier analysis

Sensitivity of a Simulated Derecho Event to Model Initial Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wei

2014-05-01

Since 2003, the MMM division at NCAR has been experimenting cloud-permitting scale weather forecasting using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Over the years, we've tested different model physics, and tried different initial and boundary conditions. Not surprisingly, we found that the model's forecasts are more sensitive to the initial conditions than model physics. In 2012 real-time experiment, WRF-DART (Data Assimilation Research Testbed) at 15 km was employed to produce initial conditions for twice-a-day forecast at 3 km. On June 29, this forecast system captured one of the most destructive derecho event on record. In this presentation, we will examine forecast sensitivity to different model initial conditions, and try to understand the important features that may contribute to the success of the forecast.

Sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models.

Science.gov (United States)

Zi, Z

2011-11-01

With the rising application of systems biology, sensitivity analysis methods have been widely applied to study the biological systems, including metabolic networks, signalling pathways and genetic circuits. Sensitivity analysis can provide valuable insights about how robust the biological responses are with respect to the changes of biological parameters and which model inputs are the key factors that affect the model outputs. In addition, sensitivity analysis is valuable for guiding experimental analysis, model reduction and parameter estimation. Local and global sensitivity analysis approaches are the two types of sensitivity analysis that are commonly applied in systems biology. Local sensitivity analysis is a classic method that studies the impact of small perturbations on the model outputs. On the other hand, global sensitivity analysis approaches have been applied to understand how the model outputs are affected by large variations of the model input parameters. In this review, the author introduces the basic concepts of sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models. Moreover, the author discusses the advantages and disadvantages of different sensitivity analysis methods, how to choose a proper sensitivity analysis approach, the available sensitivity analysis tools for systems biology models and the caveats in the interpretation of sensitivity analysis results.

Computer models versus reality: how well do in silico models currently predict the sensitization potential of a substance.

Science.gov (United States)

Teubner, Wera; Mehling, Anette; Schuster, Paul Xaver; Guth, Katharina; Worth, Andrew; Burton, Julien; van Ravenzwaay, Bennard; Landsiedel, Robert

2013-12-01

National legislations for the assessment of the skin sensitization potential of chemicals are increasingly based on the globally harmonized system (GHS). In this study, experimental data on 55 non-sensitizing and 45 sensitizing chemicals were evaluated according to GHS criteria and used to test the performance of computer (in silico) models for the prediction of skin sensitization. Statistic models (Vega, Case Ultra, TOPKAT), mechanistic models (Toxtree, OECD (Q)SAR toolbox, DEREK) or a hybrid model (TIMES-SS) were evaluated. Between three and nine of the substances evaluated were found in the individual training sets of various models. Mechanism based models performed better than statistical models and gave better predictivities depending on the stringency of the domain definition. Best performance was achieved by TIMES-SS, with a perfect prediction, whereby only 16% of the substances were within its reliability domain. Some models offer modules for potency; however predictions did not correlate well with the GHS sensitization subcategory derived from the experimental data. In conclusion, although mechanistic models can be used to a certain degree under well-defined conditions, at the present, the in silico models are not sufficiently accurate for broad application to predict skin sensitization potentials. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improved sensitivity testing of explosives using transformed Up-Down methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, Geoffrey W

2014-01-01

Sensitivity tests provide data that help establish guidelines for the safe handling of explosives. Any sensitivity test is based on assumptions to simplify the method or reduce the number of individual sample evaluations. Two common assumptions that are not typically checked after testing are 1) explosive response follows a normal distribution as a function of the applied stimulus levels and 2) the chosen test level spacing is close to the standard deviation of the explosive response function (for Bruceton Up-Down testing for example). These assumptions and other limitations of traditional explosive sensitivity testing can be addressed using Transformed Up-Down (TUD) test methods. TUD methods have been developed extensively for psychometric testing over the past 50 years and generally use multiple tests at a given level to determine how to adjust the applied stimulus. In the context of explosive sensitivity we can use TUD methods that concentrate testing around useful probability levels. Here, these methods are explained and compared to Bruceton Up-Down testing using computer simulation. The results show that the TUD methods are more useful for many cases but that they do require more tests as a consequence. For non-normal distributions, however, the TUD methods may be the only accurate assessment method.

Pressure-Sensitive Paints Advance Rotorcraft Design Testing

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

The rotors of certain helicopters can spin at speeds as high as 500 revolutions per minute. As the blades slice through the air, they flex, moving into the wind and back out, experiencing pressure changes on the order of thousands of times a second and even higher. All of this makes acquiring a true understanding of rotorcraft aerodynamics a difficult task. A traditional means of acquiring aerodynamic data is to conduct wind tunnel tests using a vehicle model outfitted with pressure taps and other sensors. These sensors add significant costs to wind tunnel testing while only providing measurements at discrete locations on the model's surface. In addition, standard sensor solutions do not work for pulling data from a rotor in motion. "Typical static pressure instrumentation can't handle that," explains Neal Watkins, electronics engineer in Langley Research Center s Advanced Sensing and Optical Measurement Branch. "There are dynamic pressure taps, but your costs go up by a factor of five to ten if you use those. In addition, recovery of the pressure tap readings is accomplished through slip rings, which allow only a limited amount of sensors and can require significant maintenance throughout a typical rotor test." One alternative to sensor-based wind tunnel testing is pressure sensitive paint (PSP). A coating of a specialized paint containing luminescent material is applied to the model. When exposed to an LED or laser light source, the material glows. The glowing material tends to be reactive to oxygen, explains Watkins, which causes the glow to diminish. The more oxygen that is present (or the more air present, since oxygen exists in a fixed proportion in air), the less the painted surface glows. Imaged with a camera, the areas experiencing greater air pressure show up darker than areas of less pressure. "The paint allows for a global pressure map as opposed to specific points," says Watkins. With PSP, each pixel recorded by the camera becomes an optical pressure

Testing the sensitivity of terrestrial carbon models using remotely sensed biomass estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Hashimoto, H.; Saatchi, S. S.; Meyer, V.; Milesi, C.; Wang, W.; Ganguly, S.; Zhang, G.; Nemani, R. R.

2010-12-01

There is a large uncertainty in carbon allocation and biomass accumulation in forest ecosystems. With the recent availability of remotely sensed biomass estimates, we now can test some of the hypotheses commonly implemented in various ecosystem models. We used biomass estimates derived by integrating MODIS, GLAS and PALSAR data to verify above-ground biomass estimates simulated by a number of ecosystem models (CASA, BIOME-BGC, BEAMS, LPJ). This study extends the hierarchical framework (Wang et al., 2010) for diagnosing ecosystem models by incorporating independent estimates of biomass for testing and calibrating respiration, carbon allocation, turn-over algorithms or parameters.

Sensitivity and specificity of the nickel spot (dimethylglyoxime) test.

Science.gov (United States)

Thyssen, Jacob P; Skare, Lizbet; Lundgren, Lennart; Menné, Torkil; Johansen, Jeanne D; Maibach, Howard I; Lidén, Carola

2010-05-01

The accuracy of the dimethylglyoxime (DMG) nickel spot test has been questioned because of false negative and positive test reactions. The EN 1811, a European standard reference method developed by the European Committee for Standardization (CEN), is fine-tuned to estimate nickel release around the limit value of the EU Nickel Directive from products intended to come into direct and prolonged skin contact. Because assessments according to EN 1811 are expensive to perform, time consuming, and may destruct the test item, it should be of great value to know the accuracy of the DMG screening test. To evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of the DMG test. DMG spot testing, chemical analysis according to the EN 1811 reference method, and X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy (XRF) were performed concomitantly on 96 metallic components from earrings recently purchased in San Francisco. The sensitivity of the DMG test was 59.3% and the specificity was 97.5% based on DMG-test results and nickel release concentrations determined by the EN 1811 reference method. The DMG test has a high specificity but a modest sensitivity. It may serve well for screening purposes. Past exposure studies may have underestimated nickel release from consumer items.

Sensitivity and Specificity of Clinical and Laboratory Otolith Function Tests.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Lokesh; Thakar, Alok; Thakur, Bhaskar; Sikka, Kapil

2017-10-01

To evaluate clinic based and laboratory tests of otolith function for their sensitivity and specificity in demarcating unilateral compensated complete vestibular deficit from normal. Prospective cross-sectional study. Tertiary care hospital vestibular physiology laboratory. Control group-30 healthy adults, 20-45 years age; Case group-15 subjects post vestibular shwannoma excision or post-labyrinthectomy with compensated unilateral complete audio-vestibular loss. Otolith function evaluation by precise clinical testing (head tilt test-HTT; subjective visual vertical-SVV) and laboratory testing (headroll-eye counterroll-HR-ECR; vesibular evoked myogenic potentials-cVEMP). Sensitivity and specificity of clinical and laboratory tests in differentiating case and control subjects. Measurable test results were universally obtained with clinical otolith tests (SVV; HTT) but not with laboratory tests. The HR-ECR test did not indicate any definitive wave forms in 10% controls and 26% cases. cVEMP responses were absent in 10% controls.HTT test with normative cutoff at 2 degrees deviations from vertical noted as 93.33% sensitive and 100% specific. SVV test with normative cutoff at 1.3 degrees noted as 100% sensitive and 100% specific. Laboratory tests demonstrated poorer specificities owing primarily to significant unresponsiveness in normal controls. Clinical otolith function tests, if conducted with precision, demonstrate greater ability than laboratory testing in discriminating normal controls from cases with unilateral complete compensated vestibular dysfunction.

Mixing-model Sensitivity to Initial Conditions in Hydrodynamic Predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Bigelow, Josiah; Silva, Humberto; Truman, C. Randall; Vorobieff, Peter

2017-11-01

Amagat and Dalton mixing-models were studied to compare their thermodynamic prediction of shock states. Numerical simulations with the Sandia National Laboratories shock hydrodynamic code CTH modeled University of New Mexico (UNM) shock tube laboratory experiments shocking a 1:1 molar mixture of helium (He) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) . Five input parameters were varied for sensitivity analysis: driver section pressure, driver section density, test section pressure, test section density, and mixture ratio (mole fraction). We show via incremental Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) analysis that significant differences exist between Amagat and Dalton mixing-model predictions. The differences observed in predicted shock speeds, temperatures, and pressures grow more pronounced with higher shock speeds. Supported by NNSA Grant DE-0002913.

Sensitivities and uncertainties of modeled ground temperatures in mountain environments

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S. Gubler

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Model evaluation is often performed at few locations due to the lack of spatially distributed data. Since the quantification of model sensitivities and uncertainties can be performed independently from ground truth measurements, these analyses are suitable to test the influence of environmental variability on model evaluation. In this study, the sensitivities and uncertainties of a physically based mountain permafrost model are quantified within an artificial topography. The setting consists of different elevations and exposures combined with six ground types characterized by porosity and hydraulic properties. The analyses are performed for a combination of all factors, that allows for quantification of the variability of model sensitivities and uncertainties within a whole modeling domain. We found that model sensitivities and uncertainties vary strongly depending on different input factors such as topography or different soil types. The analysis shows that model evaluation performed at single locations may not be representative for the whole modeling domain. For example, the sensitivity of modeled mean annual ground temperature to ground albedo ranges between 0.5 and 4 °C depending on elevation, aspect and the ground type. South-exposed inclined locations are more sensitive to changes in ground albedo than north-exposed slopes since they receive more solar radiation. The sensitivity to ground albedo increases with decreasing elevation due to shorter duration of the snow cover. The sensitivity in the hydraulic properties changes considerably for different ground types: rock or clay, for instance, are not sensitive to uncertainties in the hydraulic properties, while for gravel or peat, accurate estimates of the hydraulic properties significantly improve modeled ground temperatures. The discretization of ground, snow and time have an impact on modeled mean annual ground temperature (MAGT that cannot be neglected (more than 1 °C for several

The Hug-up Test: A New, Sensitive Diagnostic Test for Supraspinatus Tears

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Yu-Lei Liu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Background: The supraspinatus tendon is the most commonly affected tendon in rotator cuff tears. Early detection of a supraspinatus tear using an accurate physical examination is, therefore, important. However, the currently used physical tests for detecting supraspinatus tears are poor diagnostic indicators and involve a wide range of sensitivity and specificity values. Therefore, the aim of this study was to establish a new physical test for the diagnosis of supraspinatus tears and evaluate its accuracy in comparison with conventional tests. Methods: Between November 2012 and January 2014, 200 consecutive patients undergoing shoulder arthroscopy were prospectively evaluated preoperatively. The hug-up test, empty can (EC test, full can (FC test, Neer impingement sign, and Hawkins-Kennedy impingement sign were used and compared statistically for their accuracy in terms of supraspinatus tears, with arthroscopic findings as the gold standard. Muscle strength was precisely quantified using an electronic digital tensiometer. Results: The prevalence of supraspinatus tears was 76.5%. The hug-up test demonstrated the highest sensitivity (94.1%, with a low negative likelihood ratio (NLR, 0.08 and comparable specificity (76.6% compared with the other four tests. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the hug-up test was 0.854, with no statistical difference compared with the EC test (z = 1.438, P = 0.075 or the FC test (z = 1.498, P = 0.067. The hug-up test showed no statistical difference in terms of detecting different tear patterns according to the position (χ2 = 0.578, P = 0.898 and size (Fisher′s exact test, P > 0.999 compared with the arthroscopic examination. The interobserver reproducibility of the hug-up test was high, with a kappa coefficient of 0.823. Conclusions: The hug-up test can accurately detect supraspinatus tears with a high sensitivity, comparable specificity, and low NLR compared with the conventional

The Sensitivity of Evapotranspiration Models to Errors in Model ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Five evapotranspiration (Et) model-the penman, Blaney - Criddel, Thornthwaite, the Blaney –Morin-Nigeria, and the Jensen and Haise models – were analyzed for parameter sensitivity under Nigerian Climatic conditions. The sensitivity of each model to errors in any of its measured parameters (variables) was based on the ...

Importance measures in global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Homma, Toshimitsu; Saltelli, Andrea

1996-01-01

The present paper deals with a new method of global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models. This is based on a measure of importance to calculate the fractional contribution of the input parameters to the variance of the model prediction. Measures of importance in sensitivity analysis have been suggested by several authors, whose work is reviewed in this article. More emphasis is given to the developments of sensitivity indices by the Russian mathematician I.M. Sobol'. Given that Sobol' treatment of the measure of importance is the most general, his formalism is employed throughout this paper where conceptual and computational improvements of the method are presented. The computational novelty of this study is the introduction of the 'total effect' parameter index. This index provides a measure of the total effect of a given parameter, including all the possible synergetic terms between that parameter and all the others. Rank transformation of the data is also introduced in order to increase the reproducibility of the method. These methods are tested on a few analytical and computer models. The main conclusion of this work is the identification of a sensitivity analysis methodology which is both flexible, accurate and informative, and which can be achieved at reasonable computational cost

Time-Dependent Global Sensitivity Analysis for Long-Term Degeneracy Model Using Polynomial Chaos

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Jianbin Guo

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Global sensitivity is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the output variability of static models in general. However, very few approaches can be applied for the sensitivity analysis of long-term degeneracy models, as far as time-dependent reliability is concerned. The reason is that the static sensitivity may not reflect the completed sensitivity during the entire life circle. This paper presents time-dependent global sensitivity analysis for long-term degeneracy models based on polynomial chaos expansion (PCE. Sobol’ indices are employed as the time-dependent global sensitivity since they provide accurate information on the selected uncertain inputs. In order to compute Sobol’ indices more efficiently, this paper proposes a moving least squares (MLS method to obtain the time-dependent PCE coefficients with acceptable simulation effort. Then Sobol’ indices can be calculated analytically as a postprocessing of the time-dependent PCE coefficients with almost no additional cost. A test case is used to show how to conduct the proposed method, then this approach is applied to an engineering case, and the time-dependent global sensitivity is obtained for the long-term degeneracy mechanism model.

Healthy volunteers can be phenotyped using cutaneous sensitization pain models.

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Mads U Werner

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Human experimental pain models leading to development of secondary hyperalgesia are used to estimate efficacy of analgesics and antihyperalgesics. The ability to develop an area of secondary hyperalgesia varies substantially between subjects, but little is known about the agreement following repeated measurements. The aim of this study was to determine if the areas of secondary hyperalgesia were consistently robust to be useful for phenotyping subjects, based on their pattern of sensitization by the heat pain models. METHODS: We performed post-hoc analyses of 10 completed healthy volunteer studies (n = 342 [409 repeated measurements]. Three different models were used to induce secondary hyperalgesia to monofilament stimulation: the heat/capsaicin sensitization (H/C, the brief thermal sensitization (BTS, and the burn injury (BI models. Three studies included both the H/C and BTS models. RESULTS: Within-subject compared to between-subject variability was low, and there was substantial strength of agreement between repeated induction-sessions in most studies. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC improved little with repeated testing beyond two sessions. There was good agreement in categorizing subjects into 'small area' (1(st quartile [75%] responders: 56-76% of subjects consistently fell into same 'small-area' or 'large-area' category on two consecutive study days. There was moderate to substantial agreement between the areas of secondary hyperalgesia induced on the same day using the H/C (forearm and BTS (thigh models. CONCLUSION: Secondary hyperalgesia induced by experimental heat pain models seem a consistent measure of sensitization in pharmacodynamic and physiological research. The analysis indicates that healthy volunteers can be phenotyped based on their pattern of sensitization by the heat [and heat plus capsaicin] pain models.

Hydraulic head interpolation using ANFIS—model selection and sensitivity analysis

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Kurtulus, Bedri; Flipo, Nicolas

2012-01-01

The aim of this study is to investigate the efficiency of ANFIS (adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system) for interpolating hydraulic head in a 40-km 2 agricultural watershed of the Seine basin (France). Inputs of ANFIS are Cartesian coordinates and the elevation of the ground. Hydraulic head was measured at 73 locations during a snapshot campaign on September 2009, which characterizes low-water-flow regime in the aquifer unit. The dataset was then split into three subsets using a square-based selection method: a calibration one (55%), a training one (27%), and a test one (18%). First, a method is proposed to select the best ANFIS model, which corresponds to a sensitivity analysis of ANFIS to the type and number of membership functions (MF). Triangular, Gaussian, general bell, and spline-based MF are used with 2, 3, 4, and 5 MF per input node. Performance criteria on the test subset are used to select the 5 best ANFIS models among 16. Then each is used to interpolate the hydraulic head distribution on a (50×50)-m grid, which is compared to the soil elevation. The cells where the hydraulic head is higher than the soil elevation are counted as "error cells." The ANFIS model that exhibits the less "error cells" is selected as the best ANFIS model. The best model selection reveals that ANFIS models are very sensitive to the type and number of MF. Finally, a sensibility analysis of the best ANFIS model with four triangular MF is performed on the interpolation grid, which shows that ANFIS remains stable to error propagation with a higher sensitivity to soil elevation.

Culture and Youth Psychopathology: Testing the Syndromal Sensitivity Model in Thai and American Adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

Weisz, John R.; Weiss, Bahr; Suwanlert, Somsong; Chaiyasit, Wanchai

2006-01-01

Current widespread use of the same youth assessment measures and scales across different nations assumes that youth psychopathology syndromes do not differ meaningfully across nations. By contrast, the authors' syndromal sensitivity model posits 3 processes through which cultural differences can lead to cross-national differences in…

Variation of a test's sensitivity and specificity with disease prevalence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leeflang, Mariska M. G.; Rutjes, Anne W. S.; Reitsma, Johannes B.; Hooft, Lotty; Bossuyt, Patrick M. M.

2013-01-01

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the sensitivity and specificity of a diagnostic test may vary with disease prevalence. Our objective was to investigate the associations between disease prevalence and test sensitivity and specificity using studies of diagnostic accuracy. We used data from 23

A reactive transport model for mercury fate in contaminated soil--sensitivity analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Leterme, Bertrand; Jacques, Diederik

2015-11-01

We present a sensitivity analysis of a reactive transport model of mercury (Hg) fate in contaminated soil systems. The one-dimensional model, presented in Leterme et al. (2014), couples water flow in variably saturated conditions with Hg physico-chemical reactions. The sensitivity of Hg leaching and volatilisation to parameter uncertainty is examined using the elementary effect method. A test case is built using a hypothetical 1-m depth sandy soil and a 50-year time series of daily precipitation and evapotranspiration. Hg anthropogenic contamination is simulated in the topsoil by separately considering three different sources: cinnabar, non-aqueous phase liquid and aqueous mercuric chloride. The model sensitivity to a set of 13 input parameters is assessed, using three different model outputs (volatilized Hg, leached Hg, Hg still present in the contaminated soil horizon). Results show that dissolved organic matter (DOM) concentration in soil solution and the binding constant to DOM thiol groups are critical parameters, as well as parameters related to Hg sorption to humic and fulvic acids in solid organic matter. Initial Hg concentration is also identified as a sensitive parameter. The sensitivity analysis also brings out non-monotonic model behaviour for certain parameters.

Drug sensitivity testing platforms for gastric cancer diagnostics.

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, Vianne; Wong, Andrea Li-Ann; Ng, Christopher; Mok, Yingting; Lakshmanan, Manikandan; Yan, Benedict

2016-02-01

Gastric cancer diagnostics has traditionally been histomorphological and primarily the domain of surgical pathologists. Although there is an increasing usage of molecular and genomic techniques for clinical diagnostics, there is an emerging field of personalised drug sensitivity testing. In this review, we describe the various personalised drug sensitivity testing platforms and discuss the challenges facing clinical adoption of these assays for gastric cancer. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

In vitro evaluation of matrix metalloproteinases as predictive testing for nickel, a model sensitizing agent

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lamberti, Monica; Perfetto, Brunella; Costabile, Teresa; Canozo, Nunzia; Baroni, Adone; Liotti, Francesco; Sannolo, Nicola; Giuliano, Mariateresa

2004-01-01

The identification of potential damage due to chemical exposure in the workplace is a major health and regulatory concern. Traditional tests that measure both sensitization and elicitation responses require the use of animals. An alternative to this widespread use of experimental animals could have a crucial impact on risk assessment, especially for the preliminary screening of new molecules. We developed an in vitro model for the screening of potential toxic compounds. Human keratinocytes (HaCat) were used as target cells while matrix metalloproteinases (MMP) were selected as responders because they are key enzymes involved in extracellular matrix (ECM) degradation in physiological and pathological conditions. Chemical exposure was performed using nickel sulphate as a positive tester. Nickel contact induced upregulation of MMP-2 and IL-8 mRNA production. Molecular activation occurred even at very low nickel concentrations even though no phenotypic changes were observed. MMP-9 accumulation was found in the medium of treated cells with respect to controls. These observations led to the hypothesis that even minimal exposure can accumulate transcriptional activity resulting in long-term clinical signs after contact. Our simple in vitro model can be applied as a useful preliminary complement to the animal studies to screen the effects of new potential toxic compounds

Sensitive visual test for concave diffraction gratings.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruner, E. C., Jr.

1972-01-01

A simple visual test for the evaluation of concave diffraction gratings is described. It is twice as sensitive as the Foucault knife edge test, from which it is derived, and has the advantage that the images are straight and free of astigmatism. It is particularly useful for grating with high ruling frequency where the above image faults limit the utility of the Foucault test. The test can be interpreted quantitatively and can detect zonal grating space errors of as little as 0.1 A.

The sensitivity of patch test in patients with psoriasis

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Yavuz Yeşilova

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Objectives: Allergic diseases play an important role in the natural course of psoriasis. Atopic sensitization and con-tact dermatitis are common in patients with psoriasis. Since the symptoms are prolonged in patients who are resistant to therapy and exposure to itchy and external factors are common among these patients, the effects of contact aller-gens on triggering psoriasis are investigated. Contact allergens have an important role in activation and remission of psoriasis. We aimed to investigate contact sensitization rates in patients with psoriasis in the study.Material and Methods: Contact sensitization was investigated with the application of European standard series in twenty patients with psoriasis, twenty patients with contact dermatitis, and twenty healthy persons. Results: Among the whole study cases, positivity rate of patch test against one allergen at least was 25%. rate of patch test was 25% in patients with psoriasis, 35% in patients with contact dermatitis, and 15% in healthy persons. There were no significant differences between the groups according to sensitization to one or more allergens (p>0.05. There were no significant difference in clinical subgroup of psoriatic patients according to contact sensitiza-tion (p>0.05. The allergens in patients with psoriasis on patch test were as the followings: phenyldiamine, potassium dichromat, nickel, and cobalt.Conclusion: We think that the patch test has a major role in the diagnosis and elimination of allergens in patients with the chronic and resistant diseases and palmoplantar and flexural psoriasis.

Validity, Reliability, and Sensitivity of a Volleyball Intermittent Endurance Test.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez-Marroyo, Jose A; Medina-Carrillo, Javier; García-López, Juan; Morante, Juan C; Villa, José G; Foster, Carl

2017-03-01

To analyze the concurrent and construct validity of a volleyball intermittent endurance test (VIET). The VIET's test-retest reliability and sensitivity to assess seasonal changes was also studied. During the preseason, 71 volleyball players of different competitive levels took part in this study. All performed the VIET and a graded treadmill test with gas-exchange measurement (GXT). Thirty-one of the players performed an additional VIET to analyze the test-retest reliability. To test the VIET's sensitivity, 28 players repeated the VIET and GXT at the end of their season. Significant (P volleyball players.

Non-animal assessment of skin sensitization hazard: Is an integrated testing strategy needed, and if so what should be integrated?

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, David W; Patlewicz, Grace

2018-01-01

There is an expectation that to meet regulatory requirements, and avoid or minimize animal testing, integrated approaches to testing and assessment will be needed that rely on assays representing key events (KEs) in the skin sensitization adverse outcome pathway. Three non-animal assays have been formally validated and regulatory adopted: the direct peptide reactivity assay (DPRA), the KeratinoSens™ assay and the human cell line activation test (h-CLAT). There have been many efforts to develop integrated approaches to testing and assessment with the "two out of three" approach attracting much attention. Here a set of 271 chemicals with mouse, human and non-animal sensitization test data was evaluated to compare the predictive performances of the three individual non-animal assays, their binary combinations and the "two out of three" approach in predicting skin sensitization potential. The most predictive approach was to use both the DPRA and h-CLAT as follows: (1) perform DPRA - if positive, classify as sensitizing, and (2) if negative, perform h-CLAT - a positive outcome denotes a sensitizer, a negative, a non-sensitizer. With this approach, 85% (local lymph node assay) and 93% (human) of non-sensitizer predictions were correct, whereas the "two out of three" approach had 69% (local lymph node assay) and 79% (human) of non-sensitizer predictions correct. The findings are consistent with the argument, supported by published quantitative mechanistic models that only the first KE needs to be modeled. All three assays model this KE to an extent. The value of using more than one assay depends on how the different assays compensate for each other's technical limitations. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Variance-based sensitivity analysis for wastewater treatment plant modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Cosenza, Alida; Mannina, Giorgio; Vanrolleghem, Peter A; Neumann, Marc B

2014-02-01

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is a valuable tool to support the use of mathematical models that characterise technical or natural systems. In the field of wastewater modelling, most of the recent applications of GSA use either regression-based methods, which require close to linear relationships between the model outputs and model factors, or screening methods, which only yield qualitative results. However, due to the characteristics of membrane bioreactors (MBR) (non-linear kinetics, complexity, etc.) there is an interest to adequately quantify the effects of non-linearity and interactions. This can be achieved with variance-based sensitivity analysis methods. In this paper, the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Testing (Extended-FAST) method is applied to an integrated activated sludge model (ASM2d) for an MBR system including microbial product formation and physical separation processes. Twenty-one model outputs located throughout the different sections of the bioreactor and 79 model factors are considered. Significant interactions among the model factors are found. Contrary to previous GSA studies for ASM models, we find the relationship between variables and factors to be non-linear and non-additive. By analysing the pattern of the variance decomposition along the plant, the model factors having the highest variance contributions were identified. This study demonstrates the usefulness of variance-based methods in membrane bioreactor modelling where, due to the presence of membranes and different operating conditions than those typically found in conventional activated sludge systems, several highly non-linear effects are present. Further, the obtained results highlight the relevant role played by the modelling approach for MBR taking into account simultaneously biological and physical processes. © 2013.

Physiological assessment of sensitivity of noninvasive testing for coronary artery disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simonetti, I.; Rezai, K.; Rossen, J.D.; Winniford, M.D.; Talman, C.L.; Hollenberg, M.; Kirchner, P.T.; Marcus, M.L.

1991-01-01

The sensitivity of three noninvasive tests for coronary artery disease was assessed by means of quantitative indexes of disease severity in three different groups of patients. The overall population consisted of 110 subjects with limited coronary artery disease and no myocardial infarction. Planar dipyridamole- 201 Tl scintigraphy was evaluated in 31 patients, computer-assisted exercise treadmill in 28, and high-dose dipyridamole echocardiography testing in 51. Sensitivity was assessed by rigorous gold standards to define disease severity, such as measurement of minimum cross-sectional area and percent area of stenosis, by quantitative computerized coronary angiography (Brown/Dodge method). On the basis of the results of previous studies, the presence of physiologically significant coronary artery disease was indicated by a stenotic minimum cross-sectional area (MCSA) of less than 2.0 mm 2 or a greater than 75% area of stenosis. With MCSA as the gold standard, dipyridamole- 201 Tl scintigraphy, computerized exercise treadmill, and dipyridamole echocardiography testing showed sensitivities of 52%, 54%, and 61%, respectively, in the three different patient cohorts enrolled. With percent area of stenosis as the gold standard, the sensitivity figures obtained for dipyridamole- 201 Tl, computerized exercise treadmill, and dipyridamole echocardiography testing were 64%, 54%, and 69%, respectively. For each of the three tests, sensitivity increased with increasing lesion severity. Sensitivity was also better in patients with left anterior descending coronary (LAD) disease when compared with patients with left circumflex or right coronary artery disease. Results of these studies demonstrate that in patients with limited coronary artery disease none of the tests evaluated is definitely superior in sensitivity

Sensitivity of hydrological performance assessment analysis to variations in material properties, conceptual models, and ventilation models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sobolik, S.R.; Ho, C.K.; Dunn, E. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Robey, T.H. [Spectra Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Cruz, W.T. [Univ. del Turabo, Gurabo (Puerto Rico)

1996-07-01

The Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project is studying Yucca Mountain in southwestern Nevada as a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository. Site characterization includes surface- based and underground testing. Analyses have been performed to support the design of an Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) and the design of the tests performed as part of the characterization process, in order to ascertain that they have minimal impact on the natural ability of the site to isolate waste. The information in this report pertains to sensitivity studies evaluating previous hydrological performance assessment analyses to variation in the material properties, conceptual models, and ventilation models, and the implications of this sensitivity on previous recommendations supporting ESF design. This document contains information that has been used in preparing recommendations for Appendix I of the Exploratory Studies Facility Design Requirements document.

Sensitivity of hydrological performance assessment analysis to variations in material properties, conceptual models, and ventilation models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sobolik, S.R.; Ho, C.K.; Dunn, E.; Robey, T.H.; Cruz, W.T.

1996-07-01

The Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project is studying Yucca Mountain in southwestern Nevada as a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository. Site characterization includes surface- based and underground testing. Analyses have been performed to support the design of an Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) and the design of the tests performed as part of the characterization process, in order to ascertain that they have minimal impact on the natural ability of the site to isolate waste. The information in this report pertains to sensitivity studies evaluating previous hydrological performance assessment analyses to variation in the material properties, conceptual models, and ventilation models, and the implications of this sensitivity on previous recommendations supporting ESF design. This document contains information that has been used in preparing recommendations for Appendix I of the Exploratory Studies Facility Design Requirements document

Sensitivity of the polypropylene to the strain rate: experiments and modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdul-Latif, A.; Aboura, Z.; Mosleh, L.

2002-01-01

Full text.The main goal of this work is first to evaluate experimentally the strain rate dependent deformation of the polypropylene under tensile load; and secondly is to propose a model capable to appropriately describe the mechanical behavior of this material and especially its sensitivity to the strain rate. Several experimental tensile tests are performed at different quasi-static strain rates in the range of 10 -5 s -1 to 10 -1 s -1 . In addition to some relaxation tests are also conducted introducing the strain rate jumping state during testing. Within the framework of elastoviscoplasticity, a phenomenological model is developed for describing the non-linear mechanical behavior of the material under uniaxial loading paths. With the small strain assumption, the sensitivity of the polypropylene to the strain rate being of particular interest in this work, is accordingly taken into account. As a matter of fact, since this model is based on internal state variables, we assume thus that the material sensitivity to the strain rate is governed by the kinematic hardening variable notably its modulus and the accumulated viscoplastic strain. As far as the elastic behavior is concerned, it is noticed that such a behavior is slightly influenced by the employed strain rate rage. For this reason, the elastic behavior is classically determined, i.e. without coupling with the strain rate dependent deformation. It is obvious that the inelastic behavior of the used material is thoroughly dictated by the applied strain rate. Hence, the model parameters are well calibrated utilizing several experimental databases for different strain rates (10 -5 s -1 to 10 -1 s -1 ). Actually, among these experimental results, some experiments related to the relaxation phenomenon and strain rate jumping during testing (increasing or decreasing) are also used in order to more perfect the model parameters identification. To validate the calibrated model parameters, simulation tests are achieved

EU-approved rapid tests for bovine spongiform encephalopathy detect atypical forms: a study for their sensitivities.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniela Meloni

Full Text Available Since 2004 it become clear that atypical bovine spongiform encephalopthies (BSEs exist in cattle. Whenever their detection has relied on active surveillance plans implemented in Europe since 2001 by rapid tests, the overall and inter-laboratory performance of these diagnostic systems in the detection of the atypical strains has not been studied thoroughly to date. To fill this gap, the present study reports on the analytical sensitivity of the EU-approved rapid tests for atypical L- and H-type and classical BSE in parallel. Each test was challenged with two dilution series, one created from a positive pool of the three BSE forms according to the EURL standard method of homogenate preparation (50% w/v and the other as per the test kit manufacturer's instructions. Multilevel logistic models and simple logistic models with the rapid test as the only covariate were fitted for each BSE form analyzed as directed by the test manufacturer's dilution protocol. The same schemes, but excluding the BSE type, were then applied to compare test performance under the manufacturer's versus the water protocol. The IDEXX HerdChek ® BSE-scrapie short protocol test showed the highest sensitivity for all BSE forms. The IDEXX® HerdChek BSE-scrapie ultra short protocol, the Prionics®--Check WESTERN and the AJ Roboscreen® BetaPrion tests showed similar sensitivities, followed by the Roche® PrionScreen, the Bio-Rad® TeSeE™ SAP and the Prionics®--Check PrioSTRIP in descending order of analytical sensitivity. Despite these differences, the limit of detection of all seven rapid tests against the different classes of material set within a 2 log(10 range of the best-performing test, thus meeting the European Food Safety Authority requirement for BSE surveillance purposes. These findings indicate that not many atypical cases would have been missed surveillance since 2001 which is important for further epidemiological interpretations of the sporadic character of

Testing the Perturbation Sensitivity of Abortion-Crime Regressions

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Michał Brzeziński

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The hypothesis that the legalisation of abortion contributed significantly to the reduction of crime in the United States in 1990s is one of the most prominent ideas from the recent “economics-made-fun” movement sparked by the book Freakonomics. This paper expands on the existing literature about the computational stability of abortion-crime regressions by testing the sensitivity of coefficients’ estimates to small amounts of data perturbation. In contrast to previous studies, we use a new data set on crime correlates for each of the US states, the original model specifica-tion and estimation methodology, and an improved data perturbation algorithm. We find that the coefficients’ estimates in abortion-crime regressions are not computationally stable and, therefore, are unreliable.

Forming limit curves of DP600 determined in high-speed Nakajima tests and predicted by two different strain-rate-sensitive models

Science.gov (United States)

Weiß-Borkowski, Nathalie; Lian, Junhe; Camberg, Alan; Tröster, Thomas; Münstermann, Sebastian; Bleck, Wolfgang; Gese, Helmut; Richter, Helmut

2018-05-01

Determination of forming limit curves (FLC) to describe the multi-axial forming behaviour is possible via either experimental measurements or theoretical calculations. In case of theoretical determination, different models are available and some of them consider the influence of strain rate in the quasi-static and dynamic strain rate regime. Consideration of the strain rate effect is necessary as many material characteristics such as yield strength and failure strain are affected by loading speed. In addition, the start of instability and necking depends not only on the strain hardening coefficient but also on the strain rate sensitivity parameter. Therefore, the strain rate dependency of materials for both plasticity and the failure behaviour is taken into account in crash simulations for strain rates up to 1000 s-1 and FLC can be used for the description of the material's instability behaviour at multi-axial loading. In this context, due to the strain rate dependency of the material behaviour, an extrapolation of the quasi-static FLC to dynamic loading condition is not reliable. Therefore, experimental high-speed Nakajima tests or theoretical models shall be used to determine the FLC at high strain rates. In this study, two theoretical models for determination of FLC at high strain rates and results of experimental high-speed Nakajima tests for a DP600 are presented. One of the theoretical models is the numerical algorithm CRACH as part of the modular material and failure model MF GenYld+CrachFEM 4.2, which is based on an initial imperfection. Furthermore, the extended modified maximum force criterion considering the strain rate effect is also used to predict the FLC. These two models are calibrated by the quasi-static and dynamic uniaxial tensile tests and bulge tests. The predictions for the quasi-static and dynamic FLC by both models are presented and compared with the experimental results.

Anxiety sensitivity predicts increased perceived exertion during a 1-mile walk test among treatment-seeking smokers.

Science.gov (United States)

Farris, Samantha G; Uebelacker, Lisa A; Brown, Richard A; Price, Lawrence H; Desaulniers, Julie; Abrantes, Ana M

2017-12-01

Smoking increases risk of early morbidity and mortality, and risk is compounded by physical inactivity. Anxiety sensitivity (fear of anxiety-relevant somatic sensations) is a cognitive factor that may amplify the subjective experience of exertion (effort) during exercise, subsequently resulting in lower engagement in physical activity. We examined the effect of anxiety sensitivity on ratings of perceived exertion (RPE) and physiological arousal (heart rate) during a bout of exercise among low-active treatment-seeking smokers. Adult daily smokers (n = 157; M age  = 44.9, SD = 11.13; 69.4% female) completed the Rockport 1.0 mile submaximal treadmill walk test. RPE and heart rate were assessed during the walk test. Multi-level modeling was used to examine the interactive effect of anxiety sensitivity × time on RPE and on heart rate at five time points during the walk test. There were significant linear and cubic time × anxiety sensitivity effects for RPE. High anxiety sensitivity was associated with greater initial increases in RPE during the walk test, with stabilized ratings towards the last 5 min, whereas low anxiety sensitivity was associated with lower initial increase in RPE which stabilized more quickly. The linear time × anxiety sensitivity effect for heart rate was not significant. Anxiety sensitivity is associated with increasing RPE during moderate-intensity exercise. Persistently rising RPE observed for smokers with high anxiety sensitivity may contribute to the negative experience of exercise, resulting in early termination of bouts of prolonged activity and/or decreased likelihood of future engagement in physical activity.

A wave model test bed study for wave energy resource characterization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Neary, Vincent S.; Wang, Taiping; Gunawan, Budi; Dallman, Annie R.; Wu, Wei-Cheng

2017-12-01

This paper presents a test bed study conducted to evaluate best practices in wave modeling to characterize energy resources. The model test bed off the central Oregon Coast was selected because of the high wave energy and available measured data at the site. Two third-generation spectral wave models, SWAN and WWIII, were evaluated. A four-level nested-grid approach—from global to test bed scale—was employed. Model skills were assessed using a set of model performance metrics based on comparing six simulated wave resource parameters to observations from a wave buoy inside the test bed. Both WWIII and SWAN performed well at the test bed site and exhibited similar modeling skills. The ST4 package with WWIII, which represents better physics for wave growth and dissipation, out-performed ST2 physics and improved wave power density and significant wave height predictions. However, ST4 physics tended to overpredict the wave energy period. The newly developed ST6 physics did not improve the overall model skill for predicting the six wave resource parameters. Sensitivity analysis using different wave frequencies and direction resolutions indicated the model results were not sensitive to spectral resolutions at the test bed site, likely due to the absence of complex bathymetric and geometric features.

Preliminary sensitivity analyses of corrosion models for BWIP [Basalt Waste Isolation Project] container materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anantatmula, R.P.

1984-01-01

A preliminary sensitivity analysis was performed for the corrosion models developed for Basalt Waste Isolation Project container materials. The models describe corrosion behavior of the candidate container materials (low carbon steel and Fe9Cr1Mo), in various environments that are expected in the vicinity of the waste package, by separate equations. The present sensitivity analysis yields an uncertainty in total uniform corrosion on the basis of assumed uncertainties in the parameters comprising the corrosion equations. Based on the sample scenario and the preliminary corrosion models, the uncertainty in total uniform corrosion of low carbon steel and Fe9Cr1Mo for the 1000 yr containment period are 20% and 15%, respectively. For containment periods ≥ 1000 yr, the uncertainty in corrosion during the post-closure aqueous periods controls the uncertainty in total uniform corrosion for both low carbon steel and Fe9Cr1Mo. The key parameters controlling the corrosion behavior of candidate container materials are temperature, radiation, groundwater species, etc. Tests are planned in the Basalt Waste Isolation Project containment materials test program to determine in detail the sensitivity of corrosion to these parameters. We also plan to expand the sensitivity analysis to include sensitivity coefficients and other parameters in future studies. 6 refs., 3 figs., 9 tabs

The sensitivity testing of Wilms' tumors to cytostatic agents with an autoradiographic in vitro short-term test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Willnow, U.

1984-01-01

Sensitivity of 15 Wilms' tumors in children was tested towards cytostatic agents in vitro by means of an autoradiographic short-term test. Sensitivity was measured as the magnitude of the inhibition of 3 H-thymidine or 3 H-uridine incorporation. The test was performed with Adriamycin, Actinomycin D, Daunomycin, Bleomycin, Cyclophosphamide, Ifosfamide, Trenimon, and Arabinosylcytosine. None of the tumors is resistant to all substances, they are responsive against 2 or more drugs. The most effective drugs tested are Adriamycin, Actinomycin D and Cyclophosphamide. The tumors show a marked individual sensitivity pattern. This behavior is explained mainly by the usually high proliferative activity of Wilms' tumors. The possibilities and limits of long-term and short-term methods for sensitivity testing are discussed critically. For the evaluation of the results of in vitro testing and in vivo effectiveness the close correlation should be considered between the type of cytostatic agent and proliferation kinetics of the tumor, cytostatic agent and effect on tumor metabolism as well as the effect of the cytostatics and the nucleic acid precursors used for the short-term test. Despite the methodological limitations preclinical testing should be preferred to unselected chemotherapy. (author)

Exploratory rearing: a context- and stress-sensitive behavior recorded in the open-field test.

Science.gov (United States)

Sturman, Oliver; Germain, Pierre-Luc; Bohacek, Johannes

2018-02-16

Stressful experiences are linked to anxiety disorders in humans. Similar effects are observed in rodent models, where anxiety is often measured in classic conflict tests such as the open-field test. Spontaneous rearing behavior, in which rodents stand on their hind legs to explore, can also be observed in this test yet is often ignored. We define two forms of rearing, supported rearing (in which the animal rears against the walls of the arena) and unsupported rearing (in which the animal rears without contacting the walls of the arena). Using an automated open-field test, we show that both rearing behaviors appear to be strongly context dependent and show clear sex differences, with females rearing less than males. We show that unsupported rearing is sensitive to acute stress, and is reduced under more averse testing conditions. Repeated testing and handling procedures lead to changes in several parameters over varying test sessions, yet unsupported rearing appears to be rather stable within a given animal. Rearing behaviors could therefore provide an additional measure of anxiety in rodents relevant for behavioral studies, as they appear to be highly sensitive to context and may be used in repeated testing designs.

Retrospective evaluation of the consequence of alleged patch test sensitization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Charlotte D; Paulsen, Evy; Andersen, Klaus E

2006-01-01

The risk of actively sensitizing a patient in connection with diagnostic patch tests exists. This risk, however, is extremely low, especially from standard allergens, and if the test is carried out according to internationally accepted guidelines. This retrospective study investigates the clinical...... or available for the follow-up investigation and 3 patients were not traceable. Among the 14 remaining patients 1 had a reaction to gold sodium thiosulphate, which was assessed to be a persistent reaction and not a late reaction, and in 2 patients a clear relevance for the late reacting allergen was found....... For the remaining 11 patients we could not rule out that they were patch test sensitized, and they were investigated further. 1 was diseased and 10 were interviewed regarding the possible consequences of the alleged patch test sensitization. 9 had not experienced any dermatitis problems, and 1 could not exclude...

Complexity, parameter sensitivity and parameter transferability in the modelling of floodplain inundation

Science.gov (United States)

Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.; Fewtrell, T. J.

2012-12-01

In this we paper we consider two related questions. First, we address the issue of how much physical complexity is necessary in a model in order to simulate floodplain inundation to within validation data error. This is achieved through development of a single code/multiple physics hydraulic model (LISFLOOD-FP) where different degrees of complexity can be switched on or off. Different configurations of this code are applied to four benchmark test cases, and compared to the results of a number of industry standard models. Second we address the issue of how parameter sensitivity and transferability change with increasing complexity using numerical experiments with models of different physical and geometric intricacy. Hydraulic models are a good example system with which to address such generic modelling questions as: (1) they have a strong physical basis; (2) there is only one set of equations to solve; (3) they require only topography and boundary conditions as input data; and (4) they typically require only a single free parameter, namely boundary friction. In terms of complexity required we show that for the problem of sub-critical floodplain inundation a number of codes of different dimensionality and resolution can be found to fit uncertain model validation data equally well, and that in this situation Occam's razor emerges as a useful logic to guide model selection. We find also find that model skill usually improves more rapidly with increases in model spatial resolution than increases in physical complexity, and that standard approaches to testing hydraulic models against laboratory data or analytical solutions may fail to identify this important fact. Lastly, we find that in benchmark testing studies significant differences can exist between codes with identical numerical solution techniques as a result of auxiliary choices regarding the specifics of model implementation that are frequently unreported by code developers. As a consequence, making sound

Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

2017-02-01

Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for performance assessment modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doctor, P.G.

1988-08-01

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses methods for computer models are being applied in performance assessment modeling in the geologic high level radioactive waste repository program. The models used in performance assessment tend to be complex physical/chemical models with large numbers of input variables. There are two basic approaches to sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: deterministic and statistical. The deterministic approach to sensitivity analysis involves numerical calculation or employs the adjoint form of a partial differential equation to compute partial derivatives; the uncertainty analysis is based on Taylor series expansions of the input variables propagated through the model to compute means and variances of the output variable. The statistical approach to sensitivity analysis involves a response surface approximation to the model with the sensitivity coefficients calculated from the response surface parameters; the uncertainty analysis is based on simulation. The methods each have strengths and weaknesses. 44 refs

The sensitivity of flowline models of tidewater glaciers to parameter uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. M. Enderlin

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Depth-integrated (1-D flowline models have been widely used to simulate fast-flowing tidewater glaciers and predict change because the continuous grounding line tracking, high horizontal resolution, and physically based calving criterion that are essential to realistic modeling of tidewater glaciers can easily be incorporated into the models while maintaining high computational efficiency. As with all models, the values for parameters describing ice rheology and basal friction must be assumed and/or tuned based on observations. For prognostic studies, these parameters are typically tuned so that the glacier matches observed thickness and speeds at an initial state, to which a perturbation is applied. While it is well know that ice flow models are sensitive to these parameters, the sensitivity of tidewater glacier models has not been systematically investigated. Here we investigate the sensitivity of such flowline models of outlet glacier dynamics to uncertainty in three key parameters that influence a glacier's resistive stress components. We find that, within typical observational uncertainty, similar initial (i.e., steady-state glacier configurations can be produced with substantially different combinations of parameter values, leading to differing transient responses after a perturbation is applied. In cases where the glacier is initially grounded near flotation across a basal over-deepening, as typically observed for rapidly changing glaciers, these differences can be dramatic owing to the threshold of stability imposed by the flotation criterion. The simulated transient response is particularly sensitive to the parameterization of ice rheology: differences in ice temperature of ~ 2 °C can determine whether the glaciers thin to flotation and retreat unstably or remain grounded on a marine shoal. Due to the highly non-linear dependence of tidewater glaciers on model parameters, we recommend that their predictions are accompanied by

Comparison of sensitivity of quantiferon-tb gold test and tuberculin skin test in active pulmonary tuberculosis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalil, K.F.; Ambreen, A.; Butt, T.

2013-01-01

Objective: To compare the sensitivity of tuberculin skin test (TST) and quantiFERON-TB gold test (QFT-G) in active pulmonary tuberculosis. Study Design: Analytical study. Place and Duration of Study: Department of Pulmonology, Fauji Foundation Hospital, Rawalpindi, from July 2011 to January 2012. Methodology: QuantiFERON-TB gold test (QFT-G) was evaluated and compared it with tuberculin skin test (TST) in 50 cases of active pulmonary tuberculosis, in whom tuberculous infection was suspected on clinical, radiological and microbiological grounds. Sensitivity was determined against positive growth for Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Results: Out of 50 cases, 43 were females and 7 were males. The mean age was 41.84 A+- 19.03 years. Sensitivity of QFT-G was 80% while that of TST was 28%. Conclusion: QFT-G has much higher sensitivity than TST for active pulmonary tuberculosis. It is unaffected by prior BCG administration and prior exposure to atypical mycobacteria. A positive QFT-G result can be an adjunct to diagnosis in patients having clinical and radiological data compatible with pulmonary tuberculosis. (author)

How can sensitivity analysis improve the robustness of mathematical models utilized by the re/insurance industry?

Science.gov (United States)

Noacco, V.; Wagener, T.; Pianosi, F.; Philp, T.

2017-12-01

Insurance companies provide insurance against a wide range of threats, such as natural catastrophes, nuclear incidents and terrorism. To quantify risk and support investment decisions, mathematical models are used, for example to set the premiums charged to clients that protect from financial loss, should deleterious events occur. While these models are essential tools for adequately assessing the risk attached to an insurer's portfolio, their development is costly and their value for decision-making may be limited by an incomplete understanding of uncertainty and sensitivity. Aside from the business need to understand risk and uncertainty, the insurance sector also faces regulation which requires them to test their models in such a way that uncertainties are appropriately captured and that plans are in place to assess the risks and their mitigation. The building and testing of models constitutes a high cost for insurance companies, and it is a time intensive activity. This study uses an established global sensitivity analysis toolbox (SAFE) to more efficiently capture the uncertainties and sensitivities embedded in models used by a leading re/insurance firm, with structured approaches to validate these models and test the impact of assumptions on the model predictions. It is hoped that this in turn will lead to better-informed and more robust business decisions.

Method matters: systematic effects of testing procedure on visual working memory sensitivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Makovski, Tal; Watson, Leah M; Koutstaal, Wilma; Jiang, Yuhong V

2010-11-01

Visual working memory (WM) is traditionally considered a robust form of visual representation that survives changes in object motion, observer's position, and other visual transients. This article presents data that are inconsistent with the traditional view. We show that memory sensitivity is dramatically influenced by small variations in the testing procedure, supporting the idea that representations in visual WM are susceptible to interference from testing. In the study, participants were shown an array of colors to remember. After a short retention interval, memory for one of the items was tested with either a same-different task or a 2-alternative-forced-choice (2AFC) task. Memory sensitivity was much lower in the 2AFC task than in the same-different task. This difference was found regardless of encoding similarity or of whether visual WM required a fine or coarse memory resolution. The 2AFC disadvantage was reduced when participants were informed shortly before testing which item would be probed. The 2AFC disadvantage diminished in perceptual tasks and was not found in tasks probing visual long-term memory. These results support memory models that acknowledge the labile nature of visual WM and have implications for the format of visual WM and its assessment. (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved

The Development and Validation of the Vocalic Sensitivity Test.

Science.gov (United States)

Villaume, William A.; Brown, Mary Helen

1999-01-01

Notes that presbycusis, hearing loss associated with aging, may be marked by a second dimension of hearing loss, a loss in vocalic sensitivity. Reports on the development of the Vocalic Sensitivity Test, which controls for the verbal elements in speech while also allowing for the vocalics to exercise their normal metacommunicative function of…

Variation of strain rate sensitivity index of a superplastic aluminum alloy in different testing methods

Science.gov (United States)

Majidi, Omid; Jahazi, Mohammad; Bombardier, Nicolas; Samuel, Ehab

2017-10-01

The strain rate sensitivity index, m-value, is being applied as a common tool to evaluate the impact of the strain rate on the viscoplastic behaviour of materials. The m-value, as a constant number, has been frequently taken into consideration for modeling material behaviour in the numerical simulation of superplastic forming processes. However, the impact of the testing variables on the measured m-values has not been investigated comprehensively. In this study, the m-value for a superplastic grade of an aluminum alloy (i.e., AA5083) has been investigated. The conditions and the parameters that influence the strain rate sensitivity for the material are compared with three different testing methods, i.e., monotonic uniaxial tension test, strain rate jump test and stress relaxation test. All tests were conducted at elevated temperature (470°C) and at strain rates up to 0.1 s-1. The results show that the m-value is not constant and is highly dependent on the applied strain rate, strain level and testing method.

Reliable and sensitive physical testing of elite trapeze sailors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bay, Jonathan; Bojsen-Møller, Jens; Nordsborg, Nikolai Baastrup

2018-01-01

It was investigated, if a newly developed discipline specific test for elite-level trapeze sailors is reli-able and sensitive. Furthermore, the physical demands of trapeze sailing were examined. In part 1, nine national team athletes were accustomed to a simulated sailing test, which subsequently....... 265 ± 45W, Psailing was 54.5 ± 7.2% VO2max , 75.1 ± 3.1% HRmax and 5.8 ± 2.7 mM, respectively. However, VO2 and HR were substantially higher for periods of the race...... as peak values were 83.5 ± 11.4% and 89.9 ± 1.7% of max, respectively. In conclusion, the present test is reliable and sensitive, thus providing a sailing specific alternative to traditional physical testing of elite trapeze sailors. Additionally, on-water rac-ing requires moderate aerobic energy...

Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleijnen, J.P.C.

2009-01-01

This contribution presents an overview of sensitivity analysis of simulation models, including the estimation of gradients. It covers classic designs and their corresponding (meta)models; namely, resolution-III designs including fractional-factorial two-level designs for first-order polynomial

Deformation modeling and the strain transient dip test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, W.B.; Rohde, R.W.; Swearengen, J.C.

1980-01-01

Recent efforts in material deformation modeling reveal a trend toward unifying creep and plasticity with a single rate-dependent formulation. While such models can describe actual material deformation, most require a number of different experiments to generate model parameter information. Recently, however, a new model has been proposed in which most of the requisite constants may be found by examining creep transients brought about through abrupt changes in creep stress (strain transient dip test). The critical measurement in this test is the absence of a resolvable creep rate after a stress drop. As a consequence, the result is extraordinarily sensitive to strain resolution as well as machine mechanical response. This paper presents the design of a machine in which these spurious effects have been minimized and discusses the nature of the strain transient dip test using the example of aluminum. It is concluded that the strain transient dip test is not useful as the primary test for verifying any micromechanical model of deformation. Nevertheless, if a model can be developed which is verifiable by other experimentts, data from a dip test machine may be used to generate model parameters

The local lymph node assay and skin sensitization testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Kimber, Ian; Dearman, Rebecca J

2010-01-01

The mouse local lymph node assay (LLNA) is a method for the identification and characterization of skin sensitization hazards. In this context the method can be used both to identify contact allergens, and also determine the relative skin sensitizing potency as a basis for derivation of effective risk assessments.The assay is based on measurement of proliferative responses by draining lymph node cells induced following topical exposure of mice to test chemicals. Such responses are known to be causally and quantitatively associated with the acquisition of skin sensitization and therefore provide a relevant marker for characterization of contact allergic potential.The LLNA has been the subject of exhaustive evaluation and validation exercises and has been assigned Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) test guideline 429. Herein we describe the conduct and interpretation of the LLNA.

Sensitivity analysis using contribution to sample variance plot: Application to a water hammer model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tarantola, S.; Kopustinskas, V.; Bolado-Lavin, R.; Kaliatka, A.; Ušpuras, E.; Vaišnoras, M.

2012-01-01

This paper presents “contribution to sample variance plot”, a natural extension of the “contribution to the sample mean plot”, which is a graphical tool for global sensitivity analysis originally proposed by Sinclair. These graphical tools have a great potential to display graphically sensitivity information given a generic input sample and its related model realizations. The contribution to the sample variance can be obtained at no extra computational cost, i.e. from the same points used for deriving the contribution to the sample mean and/or scatter-plots. The proposed approach effectively instructs the analyst on how to achieve a targeted reduction of the variance, by operating on the extremes of the input parameters' ranges. The approach is tested against a known benchmark for sensitivity studies, the Ishigami test function, and a numerical model simulating the behaviour of a water hammer effect in a piping system.

Global sensitivity analysis of computer models with functional inputs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iooss, Bertrand; Ribatet, Mathieu

2009-01-01

Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the response variability of a numerical model. The common quantitative methods are appropriate with computer codes having scalar model inputs. This paper aims at illustrating different variance-based sensitivity analysis techniques, based on the so-called Sobol's indices, when some model inputs are functional, such as stochastic processes or random spatial fields. In this work, we focus on large cpu time computer codes which need a preliminary metamodeling step before performing the sensitivity analysis. We propose the use of the joint modeling approach, i.e., modeling simultaneously the mean and the dispersion of the code outputs using two interlinked generalized linear models (GLMs) or generalized additive models (GAMs). The 'mean model' allows to estimate the sensitivity indices of each scalar model inputs, while the 'dispersion model' allows to derive the total sensitivity index of the functional model inputs. The proposed approach is compared to some classical sensitivity analysis methodologies on an analytical function. Lastly, the new methodology is applied to an industrial computer code that simulates the nuclear fuel irradiation.

Parametric uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis in a model of the carotid bifurcation: Identification and ranking of most sensitive model parameters.

Science.gov (United States)

Gul, R; Bernhard, S

2015-11-01

In computational cardiovascular models, parameters are one of major sources of uncertainty, which make the models unreliable and less predictive. In order to achieve predictive models that allow the investigation of the cardiovascular diseases, sensitivity analysis (SA) can be used to quantify and reduce the uncertainty in outputs (pressure and flow) caused by input (electrical and structural) model parameters. In the current study, three variance based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) methods; Sobol, FAST and a sparse grid stochastic collocation technique based on the Smolyak algorithm were applied on a lumped parameter model of carotid bifurcation. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to identify and rank most sensitive parameters as well as to fix less sensitive parameters at their nominal values (factor fixing). In this context, network location and temporal dependent sensitivities were also discussed to identify optimal measurement locations in carotid bifurcation and optimal temporal regions for each parameter in the pressure and flow waves, respectively. Results show that, for both pressure and flow, flow resistance (R), diameter (d) and length of the vessel (l) are sensitive within right common carotid (RCC), right internal carotid (RIC) and right external carotid (REC) arteries, while compliance of the vessels (C) and blood inertia (L) are sensitive only at RCC. Moreover, Young's modulus (E) and wall thickness (h) exhibit less sensitivities on pressure and flow at all locations of carotid bifurcation. Results of network location and temporal variabilities revealed that most of sensitivity was found in common time regions i.e. early systole, peak systole and end systole. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Leakage localisation method in a water distribution system based on sensitivity matrix: methodology and real test

OpenAIRE

Pascual Pañach, Josep

2010-01-01

Leaks are present in all water distribution systems. In this paper a method for leakage detection and localisation is presented. It uses pressure measurements and simulation models. Leakage localisation methodology is based on pressure sensitivity matrix. Sensitivity is normalised and binarised using a common threshold for all nodes, so a signatures matrix is obtained. A pressure sensor optimal distribution methodology is developed too, but it is not used in the real test. To validate this...

A Bayesian ensemble of sensitivity measures for severe accident modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen [Department of Basic Sciences, East Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Di Maio, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.dimaio@polimi.it [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Vagnoli, Matteo [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Zio, Enrico [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Chair on System Science and Energetic Challenge, Fondation EDF – Electricite de France Ecole Centrale, Paris, and Supelec, Paris (France); Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2015-12-15

Highlights: • We propose a sensitivity analysis (SA) method based on a Bayesian updating scheme. • The Bayesian updating schemes adjourns an ensemble of sensitivity measures. • Bootstrap replicates of a severe accident code output are fed to the Bayesian scheme. • The MELCOR code simulates the fission products release of LOFT LP-FP-2 experiment. • Results are compared with those of traditional SA methods. - Abstract: In this work, a sensitivity analysis framework is presented to identify the relevant input variables of a severe accident code, based on an incremental Bayesian ensemble updating method. The proposed methodology entails: (i) the propagation of the uncertainty in the input variables through the severe accident code; (ii) the collection of bootstrap replicates of the input and output of limited number of simulations for building a set of finite mixture models (FMMs) for approximating the probability density function (pdf) of the severe accident code output of the replicates; (iii) for each FMM, the calculation of an ensemble of sensitivity measures (i.e., input saliency, Hellinger distance and Kullback–Leibler divergence) and the updating when a new piece of evidence arrives, by a Bayesian scheme, based on the Bradley–Terry model for ranking the most relevant input model variables. An application is given with respect to a limited number of simulations of a MELCOR severe accident model describing the fission products release in the LP-FP-2 experiment of the loss of fluid test (LOFT) facility, which is a scaled-down facility of a pressurized water reactor (PWR).

Sensor selection of helicopter transmission systems based on physical model and sensitivity analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lyu Kehong

2014-06-01

Full Text Available In the helicopter transmission systems, it is important to monitor and track the tooth damage evolution using lots of sensors and detection methods. This paper develops a novel approach for sensor selection based on physical model and sensitivity analysis. Firstly, a physical model of tooth damage and mesh stiffness is built. Secondly, some effective condition indicators (CIs are presented, and the optimal CIs set is selected by comparing their test statistics according to Mann–Kendall test. Afterwards, the selected CIs are used to generate a health indicator (HI through sen slop estimator. Then, the sensors are selected according to the monotonic relevance and sensitivity to the damage levels. Finally, the proposed method is verified by the simulation and experimental data. The results show that the approach can provide a guide for health monitoring of helicopter transmission systems, and it is effective to reduce the test cost and improve the system’s reliability.

Validation of different measures of insulin sensitivity of glucose metabolism in dairy cows using the hyperinsulinemic euglycemic clamp test as the gold standard.

Science.gov (United States)

De Koster, J; Hostens, M; Hermans, K; Van den Broeck, W; Opsomer, G

2016-10-01

The aim of the present research was to compare different measures of insulin sensitivity in dairy cows at the end of the dry period. To do so, 10 clinically healthy dairy cows with a varying body condition score were selected. By performing hyperinsulinemic euglycemic clamp (HEC) tests, we previously demonstrated a negative association between the insulin sensitivity and insulin responsiveness of glucose metabolism and the body condition score of these animals. In the same animals, other measures of insulin sensitivity were determined and the correlation with the HEC test, which is considered as the gold standard, was calculated. Measures derived from the intravenous glucose tolerance test (IVGTT) are based on the disappearance of glucose after an intravenous glucose bolus. Glucose concentrations during the IVGTT were used to calculate the area under the curve of glucose and the clearance rate of glucose. In addition, glucose and insulin data from the IVGTT were fitted in the minimal model to derive the insulin sensitivity parameter, Si. Based on blood samples taken before the start of the IVGTT, basal concentrations of glucose, insulin, NEFA, and β-hydroxybutyrate were determined and used to calculate surrogate indices for insulin sensitivity, such as the homeostasis model of insulin resistance, the quantitative insulin sensitivity check index, the revised quantitative insulin sensitivity check index and the revised quantitative insulin sensitivity check index including β-hydroxybutyrate. Correlation analysis revealed no association between the results obtained by the HEC test and any of the surrogate indices for insulin sensitivity. For the measures derived from the IVGTT, the area under the curve for the first 60 min of the test and the Si derived from the minimal model demonstrated good correlation with the gold standard. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using High-Resolution Data to Test Parameter Sensitivity of the Distributed Hydrological Model HydroGeoSphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Cornelissen

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Parameterization of physically based and distributed hydrological models for mesoscale catchments remains challenging because the commonly available data base is insufficient for calibration. In this paper, we parameterize a mesoscale catchment for the distributed model HydroGeoSphere by transferring evapotranspiration parameters calibrated at a highly-equipped headwater catchment in addition to literature data. Based on this parameterization, the sensitivity of the mesoscale catchment to spatial variability in land use, potential evapotranspiration and precipitation and of the headwater catchment to mesoscale soil and land use data was conducted. Simulations of the mesoscale catchment with transferred parameters reproduced daily discharge dynamics and monthly evapotranspiration of grassland, deciduous and coniferous vegetation in a satisfactory manner. Precipitation was the most sensitive input data with respect to total runoff and peak flow rates, while simulated evapotranspiration components and patterns were most sensitive to spatially distributed land use parameterization. At the headwater catchment, coarse soil data resulted in a change in runoff generating processes based on the interplay between higher wetness prior to a rainfall event, enhanced groundwater level rise and accordingly, lower transpiration rates. Our results indicate that the direct transfer of parameters is a promising method to benefit highly equipped simulations of the headwater catchments.

On sensitivity of gamma families to the model of nuclear interaction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krys, A.; Tomaszewski, A.; Wrotniak, J.A.

1980-01-01

A variety of 5 different models of nuclear interaction has been used in a Monte Carlo simulation of nuclear and electromagnetic showers in the atmosphere. The gamma families obtained from this simulation were processed in a way, analogous to one employed in analysis of Pamir experimental results. The sensitivity of observed pattern to the nuclear interaction model assumptions was investigated. Such sensitivity, though not a strong one, was found. In case of longitudinal (or energetical) family characteristics, the changes in nuclear interaction should be really large, if they were to be reflected in the experimental data -with all methodical error possibilities. The transverse characteristics of gamma families are more sensitive to the assumed transverse momentum distribution, but they feel the longitudinal features of nuclear interaction as well. Additionally, there was tested the dependence of observed family pattern on some methodical effects (resolving power of X-ray film, radial cut-off and energy underestimation.) (author)

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF BIOME-BGC MODEL FOR DRY TROPICAL FORESTS OF VINDHYAN HIGHLANDS, INDIA

OpenAIRE

M. Kumar; A. S. Raghubanshi

2012-01-01

A process-based model BIOME-BGC was run for sensitivity analysis to see the effect of ecophysiological parameters on net primary production (NPP) of dry tropical forest of India. The sensitivity test reveals that the forest NPP was highly sensitive to the following ecophysiological parameters: Canopy light extinction coefficient (k), Canopy average specific leaf area (SLA), New stem C : New leaf C (SC:LC), Maximum stomatal conductance (gs,max), C:N of fine roots (C:Nfr), All-sided to...

Model to Test Electric Field Comparisons in a Composite Fairing Cavity

Science.gov (United States)

Trout, Dawn H.; Burford, Janessa

2013-01-01

Evaluating the impact of radio frequency transmission in vehicle fairings is important to sensitive spacecraft. This study shows cumulative distribution function (CDF) comparisons of composite a fairing electromagnetic field data obtained by computational electromagnetic 3D full wave modeling and laboratory testing. This work is an extension of the bare aluminum fairing perfect electric conductor (PEC) model. Test and model data correlation is shown.

Laboratory measurements and model sensitivity studies of dust deposition ice nucleation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Kulkarni

2012-08-01

Full Text Available We investigated the ice nucleating properties of mineral dust particles to understand the sensitivity of simulated cloud properties to two different representations of contact angle in the Classical Nucleation Theory (CNT. These contact angle representations are based on two sets of laboratory deposition ice nucleation measurements: Arizona Test Dust (ATD particles of 100, 300 and 500 nm sizes were tested at three different temperatures (−25, −30 and −35 °C, and 400 nm ATD and kaolinite dust species were tested at two different temperatures (−30 and −35 °C. These measurements were used to derive the onset relative humidity with respect to ice (RH_ice required to activate 1% of dust particles as ice nuclei, from which the onset single contact angles were then calculated based on CNT. For the probability density function (PDF representation, parameters of the log-normal contact angle distribution were determined by fitting CNT-predicted activated fraction to the measurements at different RH_ice. Results show that onset single contact angles vary from ~18 to 24 degrees, while the PDF parameters are sensitive to the measurement conditions (i.e. temperature and dust size. Cloud modeling simulations were performed to understand the sensitivity of cloud properties (i.e. ice number concentration, ice water content, and cloud initiation times to the representation of contact angle and PDF distribution parameters. The model simulations show that cloud properties are sensitive to onset single contact angles and PDF distribution parameters. The comparison of our experimental results with other studies shows that under similar measurement conditions the onset single contact angles are consistent within ±2.0 degrees, while our derived PDF parameters have larger discrepancies.

High sensitivity tests of the standard model for electroweak interactions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koetke, D.D.

1992-01-01

The work done on this project was focussed mainly on LAMPF experiment E969 known as the MEGA experiment, a high sensitivity search for the lepton family number violating decay μ → eγ to a sensitivity which, measured in terms of the branching ratio, BR = [μ→eγ]/[μ→e ν μ ν e ] ∼10 -13 is over two orders of magnitude better than previously reported values. The work done on MEGA during this period was divided between that done at Valparaiso University and that done at LAMPF. In addition, some contributions were made to a proposal to the LAMPF PAC to perform a precision measurement of the Michel ρ parameter, described below

Evaluation of Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Environmental Modeling at a Radioactive Waste Management Site

Science.gov (United States)

Stockton, T. B.; Black, P. K.; Catlett, K. M.; Tauxe, J. D.

2002-05-01

Environmental modeling is an essential component in the evaluation of regulatory compliance of radioactive waste management sites (RWMSs) at the Nevada Test Site in southern Nevada, USA. For those sites that are currently operating, further goals are to support integrated decision analysis for the development of acceptance criteria for future wastes, as well as site maintenance, closure, and monitoring. At these RWMSs, the principal pathways for release of contamination to the environment are upward towards the ground surface rather than downwards towards the deep water table. Biotic processes, such as burrow excavation and plant uptake and turnover, dominate this upward transport. A combined multi-pathway contaminant transport and risk assessment model was constructed using the GoldSim modeling platform. This platform facilitates probabilistic analysis of environmental systems, and is especially well suited for assessments involving radionuclide decay chains. The model employs probabilistic definitions of key parameters governing contaminant transport, with the goals of quantifying cumulative uncertainty in the estimation of performance measures and providing information necessary to perform sensitivity analyses. This modeling differs from previous radiological performance assessments (PAs) in that the modeling parameters are intended to be representative of the current knowledge, and the uncertainty in that knowledge, of parameter values rather than reflective of a conservative assessment approach. While a conservative PA may be sufficient to demonstrate regulatory compliance, a parametrically honest PA can also be used for more general site decision-making. In particular, a parametrically honest probabilistic modeling approach allows both uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be explicitly coupled to the decision framework using a single set of model realizations. For example, sensitivity analysis provides a guide for analyzing the value of collecting more

Highly sensitive multianalyte immunochromatographic test strip for rapid chemiluminescent detection of ractopamine and salbutamol

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Hongfei; Han, Jing; Yang, Shijia; Wang, Zhenxing; Wang, Lin; Fu, Zhifeng

2014-01-01

Graphical abstract: A multianalyte immunochromatographic test strip was developed for the rapid detection of two β 2 -agonists. Due to the application of chemiluminescent detection, this quantitative method shows much higher sensitivity. - Highlights: • An immunochromatographic test strip was developed for detection of multiple β 2 -agonists. • The whole assay process can be completed within 20 min. • The proposed method shows much higher sensitivity due to the application of CL detection. • It is a portable analytical tool suitable for field analysis and rapid screening. - Abstract: A novel immunochromatographic assay (ICA) was proposed for rapid and multiple assay of β 2 -agonists, by utilizing ractopamine (RAC) and salbutamol (SAL) as the models. Owing to the introduction of chemiluminescent (CL) approach, the proposed protocol shows much higher sensitivity. In this work, the described ICA was based on a competitive format, and horseradish peroxidase-tagged antibodies were used as highly sensitive CL probes. Quantitative analysis of β 2 -agonists was achieved by recording the CL signals of the probes captured on the two test zones of the nitrocellulose membrane. Under the optimum conditions, RAC and SAL could be detected within the linear ranges of 0.50–40 and 0.10–50 ng mL −1 , with the detection limits of 0.20 and 0.040 ng mL −1 (S/N = 3), respectively. The whole process for multianalyte immunoassay of RAC and SAL can be completed within 20 min. Furthermore, the test strip was validated with spiked swine urine samples and the results showed that this method was reliable in measuring β 2 -agonists in swine urine. This CL-based multianalyte test strip shows a series of advantages such as high sensitivity, ideal selectivity, simple manipulation, high assay efficiency and low cost. Thus, it opens up new pathway for rapid screening and field analysis, and shows a promising prospect in food safety

Highly sensitive multianalyte immunochromatographic test strip for rapid chemiluminescent detection of ractopamine and salbutamol

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gao, Hongfei; Han, Jing; Yang, Shijia; Wang, Zhenxing; Wang, Lin; Fu, Zhifeng, E-mail: fuzf@swu.edu.cn

2014-08-11

Graphical abstract: A multianalyte immunochromatographic test strip was developed for the rapid detection of two β{sub 2}-agonists. Due to the application of chemiluminescent detection, this quantitative method shows much higher sensitivity. - Highlights: • An immunochromatographic test strip was developed for detection of multiple β{sub 2}-agonists. • The whole assay process can be completed within 20 min. • The proposed method shows much higher sensitivity due to the application of CL detection. • It is a portable analytical tool suitable for field analysis and rapid screening. - Abstract: A novel immunochromatographic assay (ICA) was proposed for rapid and multiple assay of β{sub 2}-agonists, by utilizing ractopamine (RAC) and salbutamol (SAL) as the models. Owing to the introduction of chemiluminescent (CL) approach, the proposed protocol shows much higher sensitivity. In this work, the described ICA was based on a competitive format, and horseradish peroxidase-tagged antibodies were used as highly sensitive CL probes. Quantitative analysis of β{sub 2}-agonists was achieved by recording the CL signals of the probes captured on the two test zones of the nitrocellulose membrane. Under the optimum conditions, RAC and SAL could be detected within the linear ranges of 0.50–40 and 0.10–50 ng mL{sup −1}, with the detection limits of 0.20 and 0.040 ng mL{sup −1} (S/N = 3), respectively. The whole process for multianalyte immunoassay of RAC and SAL can be completed within 20 min. Furthermore, the test strip was validated with spiked swine urine samples and the results showed that this method was reliable in measuring β{sub 2}-agonists in swine urine. This CL-based multianalyte test strip shows a series of advantages such as high sensitivity, ideal selectivity, simple manipulation, high assay efficiency and low cost. Thus, it opens up new pathway for rapid screening and field analysis, and shows a promising prospect in food safety.

A novel hypothesis on the sensitivity of the fecal occult blood test: Results of a joint analysis of 3 randomized controlled trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Boer, Rob; Zauber, Ann; Habbema, J Dik F

2009-06-01

Estimates of the fecal occult blood test (FOBT) (Hemoccult II) sensitivity differed widely between screening trials and led to divergent conclusions on the effects of FOBT screening. We used microsimulation modeling to estimate a preclinical colorectal cancer (CRC) duration and sensitivity for unrehydrated FOBT from the data of 3 randomized controlled trials of Minnesota, Nottingham, and Funen. In addition to 2 usual hypotheses on the sensitivity of FOBT, we tested a novel hypothesis where sensitivity is linked to the stage of clinical diagnosis in the situation without screening. We used the MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model to estimate sensitivity and duration, accounting for differences between the trials in demography, background incidence, and trial design. We tested 3 hypotheses for FOBT sensitivity: sensitivity is the same for all preclinical CRC stages, sensitivity increases with each stage, and sensitivity is higher for the stage in which the cancer would have been diagnosed in the absence of screening than for earlier stages. Goodness-of-fit was evaluated by comparing expected and observed rates of screen-detected and interval CRC. The hypothesis with a higher sensitivity in the stage of clinical diagnosis gave the best fit. Under this hypothesis, sensitivity of FOBT was 51% in the stage of clinical diagnosis and 19% in earlier stages. The average duration of preclinical CRC was estimated at 6.7 years. Our analysis corroborated a long duration of preclinical CRC, with FOBT most sensitive in the stage of clinical diagnosis. (c) 2009 American Cancer Society.

Testing of new hypoxic cell sensitizers in vivo

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stone, H.B.; Sinesi, M.S.

1982-01-01

We tested five agents as potential sensitizers of hypoxic cells in vivo in mammary tumors in C3H mice in comparison with misonidazole. The LD/sub 50/2/ for desmethylmisonidazole was 2.7 mg/g body wt, compared to 1.3 for misonidazole. It was as effective in reducing the TCD 50 of MDAH-MCa-4 as were equitoxic doses of misonidazole. the LD/sub 50/2/ of SR-2508 was 3.3 mg/g and was as effective a sensitizer as misonidazole. Ro 07-0741 was more toxic, with an LD/sub 50/2/ of 0.6 mg/g, but was as effective as misonidazole at equitoxic doses. NP-1 was also more toxic than misonidazole (LA/sub 50/2/ = 04 mg/g) but was a less effective sensitizer. Rotenone, which causes sensitization by inhibiting cellular respiration, thus increasing the diffusion distance of oxygen, was extremely toxic (LD/sub 50/2/ - 0.003 mg/g), and systemic respiratory inhibition and the radioprotective effects of the dimethyl sulfoxide used to dissolve it rendered it totally ineffective as a sensitizer in vivo

Parameter identification and global sensitivity analysis of Xin'anjiang model using meta-modeling approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiao-meng Song

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on (1 a screening method (Morris for qualitative ranking of parameters, and (2 a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model (RSMSobol. First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters' sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model (RSM were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.

4D-Fingerprint Categorical QSAR Models for Skin Sensitization Based on Classification Local Lymph Node Assay Measures

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yi; Tseng, Yufeng J.; Pan, Dahua; Liu, Jianzhong; Kern, Petra S.; Gerberick, G. Frank; Hopfinger, Anton J.

2008-01-01

Currently, the only validated methods to identify skin sensitization effects are in vivo models, such as the Local Lymph Node Assay (LLNA) and guinea pig studies. There is a tremendous need, in particular due to novel legislation, to develop animal alternatives, eg. Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) models. Here, QSAR models for skin sensitization using LLNA data have been constructed. The descriptors used to generate these models are derived from the 4D-molecular similarity paradigm and are referred to as universal 4D-fingerprints. A training set of 132 structurally diverse compounds and a test set of 15 structurally diverse compounds were used in this study. The statistical methodologies used to build the models are logistic regression (LR), and partial least square coupled logistic regression (PLS-LR), which prove to be effective tools for studying skin sensitization measures expressed in the two categorical terms of sensitizer and non-sensitizer. QSAR models with low values of the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic, χHL2, are significant and predictive. For the training set, the cross-validated prediction accuracy of the logistic regression models ranges from 77.3% to 78.0%, while that of PLS-logistic regression models ranges from 87.1% to 89.4%. For the test set, the prediction accuracy of logistic regression models ranges from 80.0%-86.7%, while that of PLS-logistic regression models ranges from 73.3%-80.0%. The QSAR models are made up of 4D-fingerprints related to aromatic atoms, hydrogen bond acceptors and negatively partially charged atoms. PMID:17226934

Sensitivity of Mantel Haenszel Model and Rasch Model as Viewed From Sample Size

OpenAIRE

ALWI, IDRUS

2011-01-01

The aims of this research is to study the sensitivity comparison of Mantel Haenszel and Rasch Model for detection differential item functioning, observed from the sample size. These two differential item functioning (DIF) methods were compared using simulate binary item respon data sets of varying sample size,  200 and 400 examinees were used in the analyses, a detection method of differential item functioning (DIF) based on gender difference. These test conditions were replication 4 tim...

Parametric Sensitivity Analysis of the WAVEWATCH III Model

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Beng-Chun Lee

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The parameters in numerical wave models need to be calibrated be fore a model can be applied to a specific region. In this study, we selected the 8 most important parameters from the source term of the WAVEWATCH III model and subjected them to sensitivity analysis to evaluate the sensitivity of the WAVEWATCH III model to the selected parameters to determine how many of these parameters should be considered for further discussion, and to justify the significance priority of each parameter. After ranking each parameter by sensitivity and assessing their cumulative impact, we adopted the ARS method to search for the optimal values of those parameters to which the WAVEWATCH III model is most sensitive by comparing modeling results with ob served data at two data buoys off the coast of north eastern Taiwan; the goal being to find optimal parameter values for improved modeling of wave development. The procedure adopting optimal parameters in wave simulations did improve the accuracy of the WAVEWATCH III model in comparison to default runs based on field observations at two buoys.

Increased Sensitization to Mold Allergens Measured by Intradermal Skin Testing following Hurricanes.

Science.gov (United States)

Saporta, Diego; Hurst, David

2017-01-01

Objective . To report on changes in sensitivity to mold allergens determined by changes in intradermal skin testing reactivity, after exposure to two severe hurricanes. Methods . A random, retrospective allergy charts review divided into 2 groups of 100 patients each: Group A, patients tested between 2003 and 2010 prior to hurricanes, and Group B, patients tested in 2014 and 2015 following hurricanes. Reactivity to eighteen molds was determined by intradermal skin testing. Test results, age, and respiratory symptoms were recorded. Chi-square test determined reactivity/sensitivity differences between groups. Results . Posthurricane patients had 34.6 times more positive results ( p hurricanes ( p hurricanes ( p hurricanes. This supports climatologists' hypothesis that environmental changes resulting from hurricanes can be a health risk as reflected in increased allergic sensitivities and symptoms and has significant implications for physicians treating patients from affected areas.

Low sensitivity of glucagon provocative testing for diagnosis of pheochromocytoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Lenders, Jacques W M; Pacak, Karel; Huynh, Thanh-Truc; Sharabi, Yehonatan; Mannelli, Massimo; Bratslavsky, Gennady; Goldstein, David S; Bornstein, Stefan R; Eisenhofer, Graeme

2010-01-01

Pheochromocytomas can usually be confirmed or excluded using currently available biochemical tests of catecholamine excess. Follow-up tests are, nevertheless, often required to distinguish false-positive from true-positive results. The glucagon stimulation test represents one such test; its diagnostic utility is, however, unclear. The aim of the study was to determine the diagnostic power of the glucagon test to exclude or confirm pheochromocytoma. Glucagon stimulation tests were carried out at three specialist referral centers in 64 patients with pheochromocytoma, 38 patients in whom the tumor was excluded, and in a reference group of 36 healthy volunteers. Plasma concentrations of norepinephrine and epinephrine were measured before and after glucagon administration. Several absolute and relative test criteria were used for calculating diagnostic sensitivity and specificity. Expression of the glucagon receptor was examined in pheochromocytoma tumor tissue from a subset of patients. Larger than 3-fold increases in plasma norepinephrine after glucagon strongly predicted the presence of a pheochromocytoma (100% specificity and positive predictive value). However, irrespective of the various criteria examined, glucagon-provoked increases in plasma catecholamines revealed the presence of the tumor in less than 50% of affected patients. Diagnostic sensitivity was particularly low in patients with pheochromocytomas due to von Hippel-Lindau syndrome. Tumors from these patients showed no significant expression of the glucagon receptor. The glucagon stimulation test offers insufficient diagnostic sensitivity for reliable exclusion or confirmation of pheochromocytoma. Because of this and the risk of hypertensive complications, the test should be abandoned in routine clinical practice.

High sensitivity pyrogen testing in water and dialysis solutions.

Science.gov (United States)

Daneshian, Mardas; Wendel, Albrecht; Hartung, Thomas; von Aulock, Sonja

2008-07-20

The dialysis patient is confronted with hundreds of litres of dialysis solution per week, which pass the natural protective barriers of the body and are brought into contact with the tissue directly in the case of peritoneal dialysis or indirectly in the case of renal dialysis (hemodialysis). The components can be tested for living specimens or dead pyrogenic (fever-inducing) contaminations. The former is usually detected by cultivation and the latter by the endotoxin-specific Limulus Amoebocyte Lysate Assay (LAL). However, the LAL assay does not reflect the response of the human immune system to the wide variety of possible pyrogenic contaminations in dialysis fluids. Furthermore, the test is limited in its sensitivity to detect extremely low concentrations of pyrogens, which in their sum result in chronic pathologies in dialysis patients. The In vitro Pyrogen Test (IPT) employs human whole blood to detect the spectrum of pyrogens to which humans respond by measuring the release of the endogenous fever mediator interleukin-1beta. Spike recovery checks exclude interference. The test has been validated in an international study for pyrogen detection in injectable solutions. In this study we adapted the IPT to the testing of dialysis solutions. Preincubation of 50 ml spiked samples with albumin-coated microspheres enhanced the sensitivity of the assay to detect contaminations down to 0.1 pg/ml LPS or 0.001 EU/ml in water or saline and allowed pyrogen detection in dialysis concentrates or final working solutions. This method offers high sensitivity detection of human-relevant pyrogens in dialysis solutions and components.

Sensitivity of the model error parameter specification in weak-constraint four-dimensional variational data assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, Jeremy A.; Daescu, Dacian N.

2017-08-01

This article presents the mathematical framework to evaluate the sensitivity of a forecast error aspect to the input parameters of a weak-constraint four-dimensional variational data assimilation system (w4D-Var DAS), extending the established theory from strong-constraint 4D-Var. Emphasis is placed on the derivation of the equations for evaluating the forecast sensitivity to parameters in the DAS representation of the model error statistics, including bias, standard deviation, and correlation structure. A novel adjoint-based procedure for adaptive tuning of the specified model error covariance matrix is introduced. Results from numerical convergence tests establish the validity of the model error sensitivity equations. Preliminary experiments providing a proof-of-concept are performed using the Lorenz multi-scale model to illustrate the theoretical concepts and potential benefits for practical applications.

The Sensitivity of State Differential Game Vessel Traffic Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lisowski Józef

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the application of the theory of deterministic sensitivity control systems for sensitivity analysis implemented to game control systems of moving objects, such as ships, airplanes and cars. The sensitivity of parametric model of game ship control process in collision situations have been presented. First-order and k-th order sensitivity functions of parametric model of process control are described. The structure of the game ship control system in collision situations and the mathematical model of game control process in the form of state equations, are given. Characteristics of sensitivity functions of the game ship control process model on the basis of computer simulation in Matlab/Simulink software have been presented. In the end, have been given proposals regarding the use of sensitivity analysis to practical synthesis of computer-aided system navigator in potential collision situations.

Testing a river basin model with sensitivity analysis and autocalibration for an agricultural catchment in SW Finland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. TATTARI

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Modeling tools are needed to assess (i the amounts of loading from agricultural sources to water bodies as well as (ii the alternative management options in varying climatic conditions. These days, the implementation of Water Framework Directive (WFD has put totally new requirements also for modeling approaches. The physically based models are commonly not operational and thus the usability of these models is restricted for a few selected catchments. But the rewarding feature of these process-based models is an option to study the effect of protection measures on a catchment scale and, up to a certain point, a possibility to upscale the results. In this study, the parameterization of the SWAT model was developed in terms of discharge dynamics and nutrient loads, and a sensitivity analysis regarding discharge and sediment concentration was made. The SWAT modeling exercise was carried out for a 2nd order catchment (Yläneenjoki, 233 km2 of the Eurajoki river basin in southwestern Finland. The Yläneenjoki catchment has been intensively monitored during the last 14 years. Hence, there was enough background information available for both parameter setup and calibration. In addition to load estimates, SWAT also offers possibility to assess the effects of various agricultural management actions like fertilization, tillage practices, choice of cultivated plants, buffer strips, sedimentation ponds and constructed wetlands (CWs on loading. Moreover, information on local agricultural practices and the implemented and planned protective measures were readily available thanks to aware farmers and active authorities. Here, we studied how CWs can reduce the nutrient load at the outlet of the Yläneenjoki river basin. The results suggested that sensitivity analysis and autocalibration tools incorporated in the model are useful by pointing out the most influential parameters, and that flow dynamics and annual loading values can be modeled with reasonable

Efficient stochastic approaches for sensitivity studies of an Eulerian large-scale air pollution model

Science.gov (United States)

Dimov, I.; Georgieva, R.; Todorov, V.; Ostromsky, Tz.

2017-10-01

Reliability of large-scale mathematical models is an important issue when such models are used to support decision makers. Sensitivity analysis of model outputs to variation or natural uncertainties of model inputs is crucial for improving the reliability of mathematical models. A comprehensive experimental study of Monte Carlo algorithms based on Sobol sequences for multidimensional numerical integration has been done. A comparison with Latin hypercube sampling and a particular quasi-Monte Carlo lattice rule based on generalized Fibonacci numbers has been presented. The algorithms have been successfully applied to compute global Sobol sensitivity measures corresponding to the influence of several input parameters (six chemical reactions rates and four different groups of pollutants) on the concentrations of important air pollutants. The concentration values have been generated by the Unified Danish Eulerian Model. The sensitivity study has been done for the areas of several European cities with different geographical locations. The numerical tests show that the stochastic algorithms under consideration are efficient for multidimensional integration and especially for computing small by value sensitivity indices. It is a crucial element since even small indices may be important to be estimated in order to achieve a more accurate distribution of inputs influence and a more reliable interpretation of the mathematical model results.

Prediction of skin sensitization potency using machine learning approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Zang, Qingda; Paris, Michael; Lehmann, David M; Bell, Shannon; Kleinstreuer, Nicole; Allen, David; Matheson, Joanna; Jacobs, Abigail; Casey, Warren; Strickland, Judy

2017-07-01

The replacement of animal use in testing for regulatory classification of skin sensitizers is a priority for US federal agencies that use data from such testing. Machine learning models that classify substances as sensitizers or non-sensitizers without using animal data have been developed and evaluated. Because some regulatory agencies require that sensitizers be further classified into potency categories, we developed statistical models to predict skin sensitization potency for murine local lymph node assay (LLNA) and human outcomes. Input variables for our models included six physicochemical properties and data from three non-animal test methods: direct peptide reactivity assay; human cell line activation test; and KeratinoSens™ assay. Models were built to predict three potency categories using four machine learning approaches and were validated using external test sets and leave-one-out cross-validation. A one-tiered strategy modeled all three categories of response together while a two-tiered strategy modeled sensitizer/non-sensitizer responses and then classified the sensitizers as strong or weak sensitizers. The two-tiered model using the support vector machine with all assay and physicochemical data inputs provided the best performance, yielding accuracy of 88% for prediction of LLNA outcomes (120 substances) and 81% for prediction of human test outcomes (87 substances). The best one-tiered model predicted LLNA outcomes with 78% accuracy and human outcomes with 75% accuracy. By comparison, the LLNA predicts human potency categories with 69% accuracy (60 of 87 substances correctly categorized). These results suggest that computational models using non-animal methods may provide valuable information for assessing skin sensitization potency. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[Parameter sensitivity of simulating net primary productivity of Larix olgensis forest based on BIOME-BGC model].

Science.gov (United States)

He, Li-hong; Wang, Hai-yan; Lei, Xiang-dong

2016-02-01

Model based on vegetation ecophysiological process contains many parameters, and reasonable parameter values will greatly improve simulation ability. Sensitivity analysis, as an important method to screen out the sensitive parameters, can comprehensively analyze how model parameters affect the simulation results. In this paper, we conducted parameter sensitivity analysis of BIOME-BGC model with a case study of simulating net primary productivity (NPP) of Larix olgensis forest in Wangqing, Jilin Province. First, with the contrastive analysis between field measurement data and the simulation results, we tested the BIOME-BGC model' s capability of simulating the NPP of L. olgensis forest. Then, Morris and EFAST sensitivity methods were used to screen the sensitive parameters that had strong influence on NPP. On this basis, we also quantitatively estimated the sensitivity of the screened parameters, and calculated the global, the first-order and the second-order sensitivity indices. The results showed that the BIOME-BGC model could well simulate the NPP of L. olgensis forest in the sample plot. The Morris sensitivity method provided a reliable parameter sensitivity analysis result under the condition of a relatively small sample size. The EFAST sensitivity method could quantitatively measure the impact of simulation result of a single parameter as well as the interaction between the parameters in BIOME-BGC model. The influential sensitive parameters for L. olgensis forest NPP were new stem carbon to new leaf carbon allocation and leaf carbon to nitrogen ratio, the effect of their interaction was significantly greater than the other parameter' teraction effect.

Sensitivity, Specificity, and Positivity Predictors of the Pneumococcal Urinary Antigen Test in Community-Acquired Pneumonia.

Science.gov (United States)

Molinos, Luis; Zalacain, Rafael; Menéndez, Rosario; Reyes, Soledad; Capelastegui, Alberto; Cillóniz, Catia; Rajas, Olga; Borderías, Luis; Martín-Villasclaras, Juan J; Bello, Salvador; Alfageme, Inmaculada; Rodríguez de Castro, Felipe; Rello, Jordi; Ruiz-Manzano, Juan; Gabarrús, Albert; Musher, Daniel M; Torres, Antoni

2015-10-01

Detection of the C-polysaccharide of Streptococcus pneumoniae in urine by an immune-chromatographic test is increasingly used to evaluate patients with community-acquired pneumonia. We assessed the sensitivity and specificity of this test in the largest series of cases to date and used logistic regression models to determine predictors of positivity in patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia. We performed a multicenter, prospective, observational study of 4,374 patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia. The urinary antigen test was done in 3,874 cases. Pneumococcal infection was diagnosed in 916 cases (21%); 653 (71%) of these cases were diagnosed exclusively by the urinary antigen test. Sensitivity and specificity were 60 and 99.7%, respectively. Predictors of urinary antigen positivity were female sex; heart rate≥125 bpm, systolic blood pressureantibiotic treatment; pleuritic chest pain; chills; pleural effusion; and blood urea nitrogen≥30 mg/dl. With at least six of all these predictors present, the probability of positivity was 52%. With only one factor present, the probability was only 12%. The urinary antigen test is a method with good sensitivity and excellent specificity in diagnosing pneumococcal pneumonia, and its use greatly increased the recognition of community-acquired pneumonia due to S. pneumoniae. With a specificity of 99.7%, this test could be used to direct simplified antibiotic therapy, thereby avoiding excess costs and risk for bacterial resistance that result from broad-spectrum antibiotics. We also identified predictors of positivity that could increase suspicion for pneumococcal infection or avoid the unnecessary use of this test.

Sensitivity analysis of Takagi-Sugeno-Kang rainfall-runoff fuzzy models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. P. Jacquin

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the sensitivity analysis of the model parameters of the Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy rainfall-runoff models previously developed by the authors. These models are classified in two types of fuzzy models, where the first type is intended to account for the effect of changes in catchment wetness and the second type incorporates seasonality as a source of non-linearity. The sensitivity analysis is performed using two global sensitivity analysis methods, namely Regional Sensitivity Analysis and Sobol's variance decomposition. The data of six catchments from different geographical locations and sizes are used in the sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity of the model parameters is analysed in terms of several measures of goodness of fit, assessing the model performance from different points of view. These measures include the Nash-Sutcliffe criteria, volumetric errors and peak errors. The results show that the sensitivity of the model parameters depends on both the catchment type and the measure used to assess the model performance.

Evaluating the Instructional Sensitivity of Four States' Student Achievement Tests

Science.gov (United States)

Polikoff, Morgan S.

2016-01-01

As state tests of student achievement are used for an increasingly wide array of high- and low-stakes purposes, evaluating their instructional sensitivity is essential. This article uses data from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation's Measures of Effective Project to examine the instructional sensitivity of 4 states' mathematics and English…

Acute sensitivity of freshwater mollusks and commonly tested invertebrates to select chemicals with different toxic models of action

Science.gov (United States)

Previous studies indicate that freshwater mollusks are more sensitive than commonly tested organisms to some chemicals, such as copper and ammonia. Nevertheless, mollusks are generally under-represented in toxicity databases. Studies are needed to generate data with which to comp...

Climate stability and sensitivity in some simple conceptual models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bates, J. Ray [University College Dublin, Meteorology and Climate Centre, School of Mathematical Sciences, Dublin (Ireland)

2012-02-15

A theoretical investigation of climate stability and sensitivity is carried out using three simple linearized models based on the top-of-the-atmosphere energy budget. The simplest is the zero-dimensional model (ZDM) commonly used as a conceptual basis for climate sensitivity and feedback studies. The others are two-zone models with tropics and extratropics of equal area; in the first of these (Model A), the dynamical heat transport (DHT) between the zones is implicit, in the second (Model B) it is explicitly parameterized. It is found that the stability and sensitivity properties of the ZDM and Model A are very similar, both depending only on the global-mean radiative response coefficient and the global-mean forcing. The corresponding properties of Model B are more complex, depending asymmetrically on the separate tropical and extratropical values of these quantities, as well as on the DHT coefficient. Adopting Model B as a benchmark, conditions are found under which the validity of the ZDM and Model A as climate sensitivity models holds. It is shown that parameter ranges of physical interest exist for which such validity may not hold. The 2 x CO{sub 2} sensitivities of the simple models are studied and compared. Possible implications of the results for sensitivities derived from GCMs and palaeoclimate data are suggested. Sensitivities for more general scenarios that include negative forcing in the tropics (due to aerosols, inadvertent or geoengineered) are also studied. Some unexpected outcomes are found in this case. These include the possibility of a negative global-mean temperature response to a positive global-mean forcing, and vice versa. (orig.)

Estimation of sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of two serologic tests for the detection of antibodies against Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae serotype 2 in the absence of a reference test (gold standard)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Enøe, Claes; Andersen, Søren; Sørensen, Vibeke

2001-01-01

Latent-class models were used to determine the sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of a polyclonal blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and a modified complement-fixation test (CFT) when there was no reference test. The tests were used for detection of antibodies against ...

Thermodynamic modeling of transcription: sensitivity analysis differentiates biological mechanism from mathematical model-induced effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Dresch, Jacqueline M; Liu, Xiaozhou; Arnosti, David N; Ay, Ahmet

2010-10-24

Quantitative models of gene expression generate parameter values that can shed light on biological features such as transcription factor activity, cooperativity, and local effects of repressors. An important element in such investigations is sensitivity analysis, which determines how strongly a model's output reacts to variations in parameter values. Parameters of low sensitivity may not be accurately estimated, leading to unwarranted conclusions. Low sensitivity may reflect the nature of the biological data, or it may be a result of the model structure. Here, we focus on the analysis of thermodynamic models, which have been used extensively to analyze gene transcription. Extracted parameter values have been interpreted biologically, but until now little attention has been given to parameter sensitivity in this context. We apply local and global sensitivity analyses to two recent transcriptional models to determine the sensitivity of individual parameters. We show that in one case, values for repressor efficiencies are very sensitive, while values for protein cooperativities are not, and provide insights on why these differential sensitivities stem from both biological effects and the structure of the applied models. In a second case, we demonstrate that parameters that were thought to prove the system's dependence on activator-activator cooperativity are relatively insensitive. We show that there are numerous parameter sets that do not satisfy the relationships proferred as the optimal solutions, indicating that structural differences between the two types of transcriptional enhancers analyzed may not be as simple as altered activator cooperativity. Our results emphasize the need for sensitivity analysis to examine model construction and forms of biological data used for modeling transcriptional processes, in order to determine the significance of estimated parameter values for thermodynamic models. Knowledge of parameter sensitivities can provide the necessary

Bayesian sensitivity analysis of a 1D vascular model with Gaussian process emulators.

Science.gov (United States)

Melis, Alessandro; Clayton, Richard H; Marzo, Alberto

2017-12-01

One-dimensional models of the cardiovascular system can capture the physics of pulse waves but involve many parameters. Since these may vary among individuals, patient-specific models are difficult to construct. Sensitivity analysis can be used to rank model parameters by their effect on outputs and to quantify how uncertainty in parameters influences output uncertainty. This type of analysis is often conducted with a Monte Carlo method, where large numbers of model runs are used to assess input-output relations. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the computational efficiency of variance-based sensitivity analysis of 1D vascular models using Gaussian process emulators, compared to a standard Monte Carlo approach. The methodology was tested on four vascular networks of increasing complexity to analyse its scalability. The computational time needed to perform the sensitivity analysis with an emulator was reduced by the 99.96% compared to a Monte Carlo approach. Despite the reduced computational time, sensitivity indices obtained using the two approaches were comparable. The scalability study showed that the number of mechanistic simulations needed to train a Gaussian process for sensitivity analysis was of the order O(d), rather than O(d×103) needed for Monte Carlo analysis (where d is the number of parameters in the model). The efficiency of this approach, combined with capacity to estimate the impact of uncertain parameters on model outputs, will enable development of patient-specific models of the vascular system, and has the potential to produce results with clinical relevance. © 2017 The Authors International Journal for Numerical Methods in Biomedical Engineering Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Parametric Sensitivity Tests—European Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell Stack Test Procedures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Araya, Samuel Simon; Andreasen, Søren Juhl; Kær, Søren Knudsen

2014-01-01

performed based on test procedures proposed by a European project, Stack-Test. The sensitivity of a Nafion-based low temperature PEMFC stack’s performance to parametric changes was the main objective of the tests. Four crucial parameters for fuel cell operation were chosen; relative humidity, temperature......As fuel cells are increasingly commercialized for various applications, harmonized and industry-relevant test procedures are necessary to benchmark tests and to ensure comparability of stack performance results from different parties. This paper reports the results of parametric sensitivity tests......, pressure, and stoichiometry at varying current density. Furthermore, procedures for polarization curve recording were also tested both in ascending and descending current directions....

Assessing parameter importance of the Common Land Model based on qualitative and quantitative sensitivity analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Li

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Proper specification of model parameters is critical to the performance of land surface models (LSMs. Due to high dimensionality and parameter interaction, estimating parameters of an LSM is a challenging task. Sensitivity analysis (SA is a tool that can screen out the most influential parameters on model outputs. In this study, we conducted parameter screening for six output fluxes for the Common Land Model: sensible heat, latent heat, upward longwave radiation, net radiation, soil temperature and soil moisture. A total of 40 adjustable parameters were considered. Five qualitative SA methods, including local, sum-of-trees, multivariate adaptive regression splines, delta test and Morris methods, were compared. The proper sampling design and sufficient sample size necessary to effectively screen out the sensitive parameters were examined. We found that there are 2–8 sensitive parameters, depending on the output type, and about 400 samples are adequate to reliably identify the most sensitive parameters. We also employed a revised Sobol' sensitivity method to quantify the importance of all parameters. The total effects of the parameters were used to assess the contribution of each parameter to the total variances of the model outputs. The results confirmed that global SA methods can generally identify the most sensitive parameters effectively, while local SA methods result in type I errors (i.e., sensitive parameters labeled as insensitive or type II errors (i.e., insensitive parameters labeled as sensitive. Finally, we evaluated and confirmed the screening results for their consistency with the physical interpretation of the model parameters.

Sensitivity analysis for CORSOR models simulating fission product release in LOFT-LP-FP-2 severe accident experiment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen [Islamic Azad Univ., Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Dept. of Basic Sciences; Islamic Azad Univ., Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Young Researchers and Elite Club; Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad [Sahand Univ. of Technology, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering; Yousefpour, Faramarz [Nuclear Science and Technology Research Institute, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2017-03-15

This paper deals with simulation, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of LP-FP-2 experiment of LOFT test facility. The test facility simulates the major components and system response of a pressurized water reactor during a LOCA. MELCOR code is used for predicting the fission product release from the core fuel elements in LOFT LP-FP-2 experiment. Moreover, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is performed for different CORSOR models simulating release of fission products in severe accident calculations for nuclear power plants. The calculated values for the fission product release are compared under different modeling options to the experimental data available from the experiment. In conclusion, the performance of 8 CORSOR modeling options is assessed for available modeling alternatives in the code structure.

EPA Releases Draft Policy to Reduce Animal Testing for Skin Sensitization

Science.gov (United States)

The document, Draft Interim Science Policy: Use of Alternative Approaches for Skin Sensitization as a Replacement for Laboratory Animal Testing, describes the science behind the non-animal alternatives that can now be used to identify skin sensitization.

LLNA variability: An essential ingredient for a comprehensive assessment of non-animal skin sensitization test methods and strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Sebastian

2015-01-01

The development of non-animal skin sensitization test methods and strategies is quickly progressing. Either individually or in combination, the predictive capacity is usually described in comparison to local lymph node assay (LLNA) results. In this process the important lesson from other endpoints, such as skin or eye irritation, to account for variability reference test results - here the LLNA - has not yet been fully acknowledged. In order to provide assessors as well as method and strategy developers with appropriate estimates, we investigated the variability of EC3 values from repeated substance testing using the publicly available NICEATM (NTP Interagency Center for the Evaluation of Alternative Toxicological Methods) LLNA database. Repeat experiments for more than 60 substances were analyzed - once taking the vehicle into account and once combining data over all vehicles. In general, variability was higher when different vehicles were used. In terms of skin sensitization potential, i.e., discriminating sensitizer from non-sensitizers, the false positive rate ranged from 14-20%, while the false negative rate was 4-5%. In terms of skin sensitization potency, the rate to assign a substance to the next higher or next lower potency class was approx.10-15%. In addition, general estimates for EC3 variability are provided that can be used for modelling purposes. With our analysis we stress the importance of considering the LLNA variability in the assessment of skin sensitization test methods and strategies and provide estimates thereof.

Sensitivity analysis of LOFT L2-5 test calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prosek, Andrej

2014-01-01

The uncertainty quantification of best-estimate code predictions is typically accompanied by a sensitivity analysis, in which the influence of the individual contributors to uncertainty is determined. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the improved fast Fourier transform based method by signal mirroring (FFTBM-SM) for the sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity study was performed for the LOFT L2-5 test, which simulates the large break loss of coolant accident. There were 14 participants in the BEMUSE (Best Estimate Methods-Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation) programme, each performing a reference calculation and 15 sensitivity runs of the LOFT L2-5 test. The important input parameters varied were break area, gap conductivity, fuel conductivity, decay power etc. For the influence of input parameters on the calculated results the FFTBM-SM was used. The only difference between FFTBM-SM and original FFTBM is that in the FFTBM-SM the signals are symmetrized to eliminate the edge effect (the so called edge is the difference between the first and last data point of one period of the signal) in calculating average amplitude. It is very important to eliminate unphysical contribution to the average amplitude, which is used as a figure of merit for input parameter influence on output parameters. The idea is to use reference calculation as 'experimental signal', 'sensitivity run' as 'calculated signal', and average amplitude as figure of merit for sensitivity instead for code accuracy. The larger is the average amplitude the larger is the influence of varied input parameter. The results show that with FFTBM-SM the analyst can get good picture of the contribution of the parameter variation to the results. They show when the input parameters are influential and how big is this influence. FFTBM-SM could be also used to quantify the influence of several parameter variations on the results. However, the influential parameters could not be

Sensitivity and specificity of neuropsychological tests for dementia

African Journals Online (AJOL)

specificity of a battery of neuropsychological tests in a sample of elderly persons living in a ... estimate of 20% prevalence for dementia in residential homes ... demographic variables, and mean neuro- psychological .... on optimum balance between sensitivity and specificity (Fig. 1). ..... The lack of stratification of the sample.

Long-term repeatability of the skin prick test is high when supported by history or allergen-sensitivity tests

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bødtger, Uffe; Jacobsen, C R; Poulsen, L K

2003-01-01

subjects. An SPT was positive when > or =3 mm, and repeatable if either persistently positive or negative. Clinical sensitivity to birch pollen was used as model for inhalation allergy, and was investigated at inclusion and at study termination by challenge tests, intradermal test, titrated SPT and Ig......E measurements. Birch pollen symptoms were confirmed in diaries. RESULTS: The repeatability of a positive SPT was 67%, increasing significantly to 100% when supported by the history. When not supported by history, the presence of specific IgE was significantly associated with a repeatable SPT. Allergen....... CONCLUSION: SPT changes are clinically relevant. Further studies using other allergens are needed. Long-term repeatability of SPT is high in the presence of a supportive history....

The lymphocyte transformation test for the diagnosis of drug allergy: sensitivity and specificity.

Science.gov (United States)

Nyfeler, B; Pichler, W J

1997-02-01

The diagnosis of a drug allergy is mainly based upon a very detailed history and the clinical findings. In addition, several in vitro or in vivo tests can be performed to demonstrate a sensitization to a certain drug. One of the in vitro tests is the lymphocyte transformation test (LTT), which can reveal a sensitization of T-cells by an enhanced proliferative response of peripheral blood mononuclear cells to a certain drug. To evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of the LTT, 923 case histories of patients with suspected drug allergy in whom a LTT was performed were retrospectively analysed. Based on the history and provocation tests, the probability (P) of a drug allergy was estimated to be > 0.9, 0.5-0.9, 0.1-0.5 or 0.9) had a positive LTT, which indicates a sensitivity of 78%. If allergies to betalactam-antibiotics were analysed separately, the sensitivity was 74.4%. Fifteen of 102 patients where a classical drug allergy could be excluded (P sensitization could be demonstrated as well (i.e. hen's egg lysozyme, 7/7). In 632 of the 923 cases, skin tests were also performed (scratch and/or epicutaneous), for which we found a lower sensitivity than for the LTT (64%), while the specificity was the same (85%). Although our data are somewhat biased by the high number of penicillin allergies and cannot be generalized to drug allergies caused by other compounds, we conclude that the LTT is a useful diagnostic test in drug allergies, able to support the diagnosis of a drug allergy and to pinpoint the relevant drug.

Filling the concept with data: integrating data from different in vitro and in silico assays on skin sensitizers to explore the battery approach for animal-free skin sensitization testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Natsch, Andreas; Emter, Roger; Ellis, Graham

2009-01-01

Tests for skin sensitization are required prior to the market launch of new cosmetic ingredients. Significant efforts are made to replace the current animal tests. It is widely recognized that this cannot be accomplished with a single in vitro test, but that rather the integration of results from different in vitro and in silico assays will be needed for the prediction of the skin sensitization potential of chemicals. This has been proposed as a theoretical scheme so far, but no attempts have been made to use experimental data to prove the validity of this concept. Here we thus try for the first time to fill this widely cited concept with data. To this aim, we integrate and report both novel and literature data on 116 chemicals of known skin sensitization potential on the following parameters: (1) peptide reactivity as a surrogate for protein binding, (2) induction of antioxidant/electrophile responsive element dependent luciferase activity as a cell-based assay; (3) Tissue Metabolism Simulator skin sensitization model in silico prediction; and (4) calculated octanol-water partition coefficient. The results of the in vitro assays were scaled into five classes from 0 to 4 to give an in vitro score and compared to the local lymph node assay (LLNA) data, which were also scaled from 0 to 4 (nonsensitizer/weak/moderate/strong/extreme). Different ways of evaluating these data have been assessed to rate the hazard of chemicals (Cooper statistics) and to also scale their potency. With the optimized model an overall accuracy for predicting sensitizers of 87.9% was obtained. There is a linear correlation between the LLNA score and the in vitro score. However, the correlation needs further improvement as there is still a relatively high variation in the in vitro score between chemicals belonging to the same sensitization potency class.

Structure and sensitivity analysis of individual-based predator–prey models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Imron, Muhammad Ali; Gergs, Andre; Berger, Uta

2012-01-01

The expensive computational cost of sensitivity analyses has hampered the use of these techniques for analysing individual-based models in ecology. A relatively cheap computational cost, referred to as the Morris method, was chosen to assess the relative effects of all parameters on the model’s outputs and to gain insights into predator–prey systems. Structure and results of the sensitivity analysis of the Sumatran tiger model – the Panthera Population Persistence (PPP) and the Notonecta foraging model (NFM) – were compared. Both models are based on a general predation cycle and designed to understand the mechanisms behind the predator–prey interaction being considered. However, the models differ significantly in their complexity and the details of the processes involved. In the sensitivity analysis, parameters that directly contribute to the number of prey items killed were found to be most influential. These were the growth rate of prey and the hunting radius of tigers in the PPP model as well as attack rate parameters and encounter distance of backswimmers in the NFM model. Analysis of distances in both of the models revealed further similarities in the sensitivity of the two individual-based models. The findings highlight the applicability and importance of sensitivity analyses in general, and screening design methods in particular, during early development of ecological individual-based models. Comparison of model structures and sensitivity analyses provides a first step for the derivation of general rules in the design of predator–prey models for both practical conservation and conceptual understanding. - Highlights: ► Structure of predation processes is similar in tiger and backswimmer model. ► The two individual-based models (IBM) differ in space formulations. ► In both models foraging distance is among the sensitive parameters. ► Morris method is applicable for the sensitivity analysis even of complex IBMs.

Model dependence of isospin sensitive observables at high densities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guo, Wen-Mei [Institute of Modern Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000 (China); University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); School of Science, Huzhou Teachers College, Huzhou 313000 (China); Yong, Gao-Chan, E-mail: yonggaochan@impcas.ac.cn [Institute of Modern Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000 (China); State Key Laboratory of Theoretical Physics, Institute of Theoretical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Wang, Yongjia [School of Science, Huzhou Teachers College, Huzhou 313000 (China); School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Li, Qingfeng [School of Science, Huzhou Teachers College, Huzhou 313000 (China); Zhang, Hongfei [School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); State Key Laboratory of Theoretical Physics, Institute of Theoretical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Zuo, Wei [Institute of Modern Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000 (China); State Key Laboratory of Theoretical Physics, Institute of Theoretical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China)

2013-10-07

Within two different frameworks of isospin-dependent transport model, i.e., Boltzmann–Uehling–Uhlenbeck (IBUU04) and Ultrarelativistic Quantum Molecular Dynamics (UrQMD) transport models, sensitive probes of nuclear symmetry energy are simulated and compared. It is shown that neutron to proton ratio of free nucleons, π{sup −}/π{sup +} ratio as well as isospin-sensitive transverse and elliptic flows given by the two transport models with their “best settings”, all have obvious differences. Discrepancy of numerical value of isospin-sensitive n/p ratio of free nucleon from the two models mainly originates from different symmetry potentials used and discrepancies of numerical value of charged π{sup −}/π{sup +} ratio and isospin-sensitive flows mainly originate from different isospin-dependent nucleon–nucleon cross sections. These demonstrations call for more detailed studies on the model inputs (i.e., the density- and momentum-dependent symmetry potential and the isospin-dependent nucleon–nucleon cross section in medium) of isospin-dependent transport model used. The studies of model dependence of isospin sensitive observables can help nuclear physicists to pin down the density dependence of nuclear symmetry energy through comparison between experiments and theoretical simulations scientifically.

Modelling nitrous oxide emissions from mown-grass and grain-cropping systems: Testing and sensitivity analysis of DailyDayCent using high frequency measurements.

Science.gov (United States)

Senapati, Nimai; Chabbi, Abad; Giostri, André Faé; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh B; Smith, Pete

2016-12-01

The DailyDayCent biogeochemical model was used to simulate nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from two contrasting agro-ecosystems viz. a mown-grassland and a grain-cropping system in France. Model performance was tested using high frequency measurements over three years; additionally a local sensitivity analysis was performed. Annual N 2 O emissions of 1.97 and 1.24kgNha -1 year -1 were simulated from mown-grassland and grain-cropland, respectively. Measured and simulated water filled pore space (r=0.86, ME=-2.5%) and soil temperature (r=0.96, ME=-0.63°C) at 10cm soil depth matched well in mown-grassland. The model predicted cumulative hay and crop production effectively. The model simulated soil mineral nitrogen (N) concentrations, particularly ammonium (NH 4 + ), reasonably, but the model significantly underestimated soil nitrate (NO 3 - ) concentration under both systems. In general, the model effectively simulated the dynamics and the magnitude of daily N 2 O flux over the whole experimental period in grain-cropland (r=0.16, ME=-0.81gNha -1 day -1 ), with reasonable agreement between measured and modelled N 2 O fluxes for the mown-grassland (r=0.63, ME=-0.65gNha -1 day -1 ). Our results indicate that DailyDayCent has potential for use as a tool for predicting overall N 2 O emissions in the study region. However, in-depth analysis shows some systematic discrepancies between measured and simulated N 2 O fluxes on a daily basis. The current exercise suggests that the DailyDayCent may need improvement, particularly the sub-module responsible for N transformations, for better simulating soil mineral N, especially soil NO 3 - concentration, and N 2 O flux on a daily basis. The sensitivity analysis shows that many factors such as climate change, N-fertilizer use, input uncertainty and parameter value could influence the simulation of N 2 O emissions. Sensitivity estimation also helped to identify critical parameters, which need careful estimation or site

Can nudging be used to quantify model sensitivities in precipitation and cloud forcing?: NUDGING AND MODEL SENSITIVITIES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lin, Guangxing [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Richland Washington USA; Wan, Hui [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Richland Washington USA; Zhang, Kai [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Richland Washington USA; Qian, Yun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Richland Washington USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Richland Washington USA

2016-07-10

Efficient simulation strategies are crucial for the development and evaluation of high resolution climate models. This paper evaluates simulations with constrained meteorology for the quantification of parametric sensitivities in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Two parameters are perturbed as illustrating examples: the convection relaxation time scale (TAU), and the threshold relative humidity for the formation of low-level stratiform clouds (rhminl). Results suggest that the fidelity and computational efficiency of the constrained simulations depend strongly on 3 factors: the detailed implementation of nudging, the mechanism through which the perturbed parameter affects precipitation and cloud, and the magnitude of the parameter perturbation. In the case of a strong perturbation in convection, temperature and/or wind nudging with a 6-hour relaxation time scale leads to non-negligible side effects due to the distorted interactions between resolved dynamics and parameterized convection, while a 1-year free running simulation can satisfactorily capture the annual mean precipitation sensitivity in terms of both global average and geographical distribution. In the case of a relatively weak perturbation the large-scale condensation scheme, results from 1-year free-running simulations are strongly affected by noise associated with internal variability, while nudging winds effectively reduces the noise, and reasonably reproduces the response of precipitation and cloud forcing to parameter perturbation. These results indicate that caution is needed when using nudged simulations to assess precipitation and cloud forcing sensitivities to parameter changes in general circulation models. We also demonstrate that ensembles of short simulations are useful for understanding the evolution of model sensitivities.

Central sensitization phenomena after third molar surgery: A quantitative sensory testing study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, T.S.; Norholt, S.E.; Svensson, P.

2008-01-01

Background: Surgical removal of third molars may carry a risk of developing persistent orofacial pain, and central sensitization appears to play an important role in the transition from acute to chronic pain. Aim: The aim of this study was to investigate sensitization (primarily central sensitiza......Background: Surgical removal of third molars may carry a risk of developing persistent orofacial pain, and central sensitization appears to play an important role in the transition from acute to chronic pain. Aim: The aim of this study was to investigate sensitization (primarily central...... sensitization) after orofacial trauma using quantitative sensory testing (QST). Methods: A total of 32 healthy men (16 patients and 16 age-matched control subjects) underwent a battery of quantitative tests adapted to the trigeminal area at baseline and 2, 7, and 30 days following surgical removal of a lower...... impacted third molar. Results: Central sensitization for at least one week was indicated by significantly increased pain intensity evoked by intraoral repetitive pinprick and electrical stimulation (p

Specificity and sensitivity assessment of selected nasal provocation testing techniques

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edyta Krzych-Fałta

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Nasal provocation testing involves an allergen-specific local reaction of the nasal mucosa to the administered allergen. Aim: To determine the most objective nasal occlusion assessment technique that could be used in nasal provocation testing. Material and methods : A total of 60 subjects, including 30 patients diagnosed with allergy to common environmental allergens and 30 healthy subjects were enrolled into the study. The method used in the study was a nasal provocation test with an allergen, with a standard dose of a control solution and an allergen (5,000 SBU/ml administered using a calibrated atomizer into both nostrils at room temperature. Early-phase nasal mucosa response in the early phase of the allergic reaction was assessed via acoustic rhinometry, optical rhinometry, nitric oxide in nasal air, and tryptase levels in the nasal lavage fluid. Results : In estimating the homogeneity of the average values, the Levene’s test was used and receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted for all the methods used for assessing the nasal provocation test with an allergen. Statistically significant results were defined for p < 0.05. Of all the objective assessment techniques, the most sensitive and characteristic ones were the optical rhinometry techniques (specificity = 1, sensitivity = 1, AUC = 1, PPV = 1, NPV = 1. Conclusions : The techniques used showed significant differences between the group of patients with allergic rhinitis and the control group. Of all the objective assessment techniques, those most sensitive and characteristic were the optical rhinometry.

Sensitivity Assessment of Ozone Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shorter, Jeffrey A.; Rabitz, Herschel A.; Armstrong, Russell A.

2000-01-24

The activities under this contract effort were aimed at developing sensitivity analysis techniques and fully equivalent operational models (FEOMs) for applications in the DOE Atmospheric Chemistry Program (ACP). MRC developed a new model representation algorithm that uses a hierarchical, correlated function expansion containing a finite number of terms. A full expansion of this type is an exact representation of the original model and each of the expansion functions is explicitly calculated using the original model. After calculating the expansion functions, they are assembled into a fully equivalent operational model (FEOM) that can directly replace the original mode.

A Sensitivity Study of Human Errors in Optimizing Surveillance Test Interval (STI) and Allowed Outage Time (AOT) of Standby Safety System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chung, Dae Wook; Shin, Won Ky; You, Young Woo; Yang, Hui Chang

1998-01-01

In most cases, the surveillance test intervals (STIs), allowed outage times (AOTS) and testing strategies of safety components in nuclear power plant are prescribed in plant technical specifications. And, in general, it is required that standby safety system shall be redundant (i.e., composed of multiple components) and these components are tested by either staggered test strategy or sequential test strategy. In this study, a linear model is presented to incorporate the effects of human errors associated with test into the evaluation of unavailability. The average unavailabilities of 1/4, 2/4 redundant systems are computed considering human error and testing strategy. The adverse effects of test on system unavailability, such as component wear and test-induced transient have been modelled. The final outcome of this study would be the optimized human error domain from 3-D human error sensitivity analysis by selecting finely classified segment. The results of sensitivity analysis show that the STI and AOT can be optimized provided human error probability is maintained within allowable range. (authors)

Automated particulate sampler field test model operations guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bowyer, S.M.; Miley, H.S.

1996-10-01

The Automated Particulate Sampler Field Test Model Operations Guide is a collection of documents which provides a complete picture of the Automated Particulate Sampler (APS) and the Field Test in which it was evaluated. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Automated Particulate Sampler was developed for the purpose of radionuclide particulate monitoring for use under the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Its design was directed by anticipated requirements of small size, low power consumption, low noise level, fully automatic operation, and most predominantly the sensitivity requirements of the Conference on Disarmament Working Paper 224 (CDWP224). This guide is intended to serve as both a reference document for the APS and to provide detailed instructions on how to operate the sampler. This document provides a complete description of the APS Field Test Model and all the activity related to its evaluation and progression.

12th Rencontres du Vietnam : High Sensitivity Experiments Beyond the Standard Model

CERN Document Server

2016-01-01

The goal of this workshop is to gather researchers, theoreticians, experimentalists and young scientists searching for physics beyond the Standard Model of particle physics using high sensitivity experiments. The standard model has been very successful in describing the particle physics world; the Higgs-Englert-Brout boson discovery is its last major discovery. Complementary to the high energy frontier explored at colliders, real opportunities for discovery exist at the precision frontier, testing fundamental symmetries and tracking small SM deviations.

Sensitivity model study of regional mercury dispersion in the atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Gencarelli, Christian N.; Bieser, Johannes; Carbone, Francesco; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Matthias, Volker; Travnikov, Oleg; Yang, Xin; Pirrone, Nicola

2017-01-01

Atmospheric deposition is the most important pathway by which Hg reaches marine ecosystems, where it can be methylated and enter the base of food chain. The deposition, transport and chemical interactions of atmospheric Hg have been simulated over Europe for the year 2013 in the framework of the Global Mercury Observation System (GMOS) project, performing 14 different model sensitivity tests using two high-resolution three-dimensional chemical transport models (CTMs), varying the anthropogenic emission datasets, atmospheric Br input fields, Hg oxidation schemes and modelling domain boundary condition input. Sensitivity simulation results were compared with observations from 28 monitoring sites in Europe to assess model performance and particularly to analyse the influence of anthropogenic emission speciation and the Hg0(g) atmospheric oxidation mechanism. The contribution of anthropogenic Hg emissions, their speciation and vertical distribution are crucial to the simulated concentration and deposition fields, as is also the choice of Hg0(g) oxidation pathway. The areas most sensitive to changes in Hg emission speciation and the emission vertical distribution are those near major sources, but also the Aegean and the Black seas, the English Channel, the Skagerrak Strait and the northern German coast. Considerable influence was found also evident over the Mediterranean, the North Sea and Baltic Sea and some influence is seen over continental Europe, while this difference is least over the north-western part of the modelling domain, which includes the Norwegian Sea and Iceland. The Br oxidation pathway produces more HgII(g) in the lower model levels, but overall wet deposition is lower in comparison to the simulations which employ an O3 / OH oxidation mechanism. The necessity to perform continuous measurements of speciated Hg and to investigate the local impacts of Hg emissions and deposition, as well as interactions dependent on land use and vegetation, forests, peat

Sensitivity Analysis for Urban Drainage Modeling Using Mutual Information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chuanqi Li

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The intention of this paper is to evaluate the sensitivity of the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM output to its input parameters. A global parameter sensitivity analysis is conducted in order to determine which parameters mostly affect the model simulation results. Two different methods of sensitivity analysis are applied in this study. The first one is the partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC which measures nonlinear but monotonic relationships between model inputs and outputs. The second one is based on the mutual information which provides a general measure of the strength of the non-monotonic association between two variables. Both methods are based on the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS of the parameter space, and thus the same datasets can be used to obtain both measures of sensitivity. The utility of the PRCC and the mutual information analysis methods are illustrated by analyzing a complex SWMM model. The sensitivity analysis revealed that only a few key input variables are contributing significantly to the model outputs; PRCCs and mutual information are calculated and used to determine and rank the importance of these key parameters. This study shows that the partial rank correlation coefficient and mutual information analysis can be considered effective methods for assessing the sensitivity of the SWMM model to the uncertainty in its input parameters.

Design and Validation of a Straight-Copy Typewriting Prognostic Test Using Kinesthetic Sensitivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Olson, Norma Jean

1979-01-01

Describes the development and application of a kinesthetic sensitivity test to determine whether it is a valid and reliable measure of straight-copy typing speed and accuracy. The author states that this kinesthetic sensitivity instrument may be used as a prognostic aptitude test and recommends administration methods. (MF)

In silico modeling predicts drug sensitivity of patient-derived cancer cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Pingle, Sandeep C; Sultana, Zeba; Pastorino, Sandra; Jiang, Pengfei; Mukthavaram, Rajesh; Chao, Ying; Bharati, Ila Sri; Nomura, Natsuko; Makale, Milan; Abbasi, Taher; Kapoor, Shweta; Kumar, Ansu; Usmani, Shahabuddin; Agrawal, Ashish; Vali, Shireen; Kesari, Santosh

2014-05-21

Glioblastoma (GBM) is an aggressive disease associated with poor survival. It is essential to account for the complexity of GBM biology to improve diagnostic and therapeutic strategies. This complexity is best represented by the increasing amounts of profiling ("omics") data available due to advances in biotechnology. The challenge of integrating these vast genomic and proteomic data can be addressed by a comprehensive systems modeling approach. Here, we present an in silico model, where we simulate GBM tumor cells using genomic profiling data. We use this in silico tumor model to predict responses of cancer cells to targeted drugs. Initially, we probed the results from a recent hypothesis-independent, empirical study by Garnett and co-workers that analyzed the sensitivity of hundreds of profiled cancer cell lines to 130 different anticancer agents. We then used the tumor model to predict sensitivity of patient-derived GBM cell lines to different targeted therapeutic agents. Among the drug-mutation associations reported in the Garnett study, our in silico model accurately predicted ~85% of the associations. While testing the model in a prospective manner using simulations of patient-derived GBM cell lines, we compared our simulation predictions with experimental data using the same cells in vitro. This analysis yielded a ~75% agreement of in silico drug sensitivity with in vitro experimental findings. These results demonstrate a strong predictability of our simulation approach using the in silico tumor model presented here. Our ultimate goal is to use this model to stratify patients for clinical trials. By accurately predicting responses of cancer cells to targeted agents a priori, this in silico tumor model provides an innovative approach to personalizing therapy and promises to improve clinical management of cancer.

Modeling the Sensitivity of Field Surveys for Detection of Environmental DNA (eDNA.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin T Schultz

Full Text Available The environmental DNA (eDNA method is the practice of collecting environmental samples and analyzing them for the presence of a genetic marker specific to a target species. Little is known about the sensitivity of the eDNA method. Sensitivity is the probability that the target marker will be detected if it is present in the water body. Methods and tools are needed to assess the sensitivity of sampling protocols, design eDNA surveys, and interpret survey results. In this study, the sensitivity of the eDNA method is modeled as a function of ambient target marker concentration. The model accounts for five steps of sample collection and analysis, including: 1 collection of a filtered water sample from the source; 2 extraction of DNA from the filter and isolation in a purified elution; 3 removal of aliquots from the elution for use in the polymerase chain reaction (PCR assay; 4 PCR; and 5 genetic sequencing. The model is applicable to any target species. For demonstration purposes, the model is parameterized for bighead carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and silver carp (H. molitrix assuming sampling protocols used in the Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS. Simulation results show that eDNA surveys have a high false negative rate at low concentrations of the genetic marker. This is attributed to processing of water samples and division of the extraction elution in preparation for the PCR assay. Increases in field survey sensitivity can be achieved by increasing sample volume, sample number, and PCR replicates. Increasing sample volume yields the greatest increase in sensitivity. It is recommended that investigators estimate and communicate the sensitivity of eDNA surveys to help facilitate interpretation of eDNA survey results. In the absence of such information, it is difficult to evaluate the results of surveys in which no water samples test positive for the target marker. It is also recommended that invasive species managers articulate concentration

Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

Science.gov (United States)

Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

2010-01-01

As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

78 FR 68076 - Request for Information on Alternative Skin Sensitization Test Methods and Testing Strategies and...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-11-13

... Laboratory for Alternatives to Animal Testing (EURL ECVAM), and by the industry organization Cosmetics Europe... products. Pesticides and other marketed chemicals, including cosmetic ingredients, are routinely tested for... sensitization. NICEATM collaboration with industry scientists to develop an open-source Bayesian network as an...

High sensitive quench detection method using an integrated test wire

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fevrier, A.; Tavergnier, J.P.; Nithart, H.; Kiblaire, M.; Duchateau, J.L.

1981-01-01

A high sensitive quench detection method which works even in the presence of an external perturbing magnetic field is reported. The quench signal is obtained from the difference in voltages at the superconducting winding terminals and at the terminals at a secondary winding strongly coupled to the primary. The secondary winding could consist of a ''zero-current strand'' of the superconducting cable not connected to one of the winding terminals or an integrated normal test wire inside the superconducting cable. Experimental results on quench detection obtained by this method are described. It is shown that the integrated test wire method leads to efficient and sensitive quench detection, especially in the presence of an external perturbing magnetic field

Vendor Testing of Sensitive Compounds in Simulated Dry Sludge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dworjanyn, L.O.

1999-01-01

This assessment covers thermal screening, differential scanning calorimetry, and impact sensitivity testing on Mercury Fulminate, and mixtures of the fulminate in dry inorganic sludge, which is present in large quantities in a number of storage tanks at Westinghouse Savannah River

Short ensembles: An Efficient Method for Discerning Climate-relevant Sensitivities in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wan, Hui; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhang, Kai; Qian, Yun; Yan, Huiping; Zhao, Chun

2014-09-08

This paper explores the feasibility of an experimentation strategy for investigating sensitivities in fast components of atmospheric general circulation models. The basic idea is to replace the traditional serial-in-time long-term climate integrations by representative ensembles of shorter simulations. The key advantage of the proposed method lies in its efficiency: since fewer days of simulation are needed, the computational cost is less, and because individual realizations are independent and can be integrated simultaneously, the new dimension of parallelism can dramatically reduce the turnaround time in benchmark tests, sensitivities studies, and model tuning exercises. The strategy is not appropriate for exploring sensitivity of all model features, but it is very effective in many situations. Two examples are presented using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5. The first example demonstrates that the method is capable of characterizing the model cloud and precipitation sensitivity to time step length. A nudging technique is also applied to an additional set of simulations to help understand the contribution of physics-dynamics interaction to the detected time step sensitivity. In the second example, multiple empirical parameters related to cloud microphysics and aerosol lifecycle are perturbed simultaneously in order to explore which parameters have the largest impact on the simulated global mean top-of-atmosphere radiation balance. Results show that in both examples, short ensembles are able to correctly reproduce the main signals of model sensitivities revealed by traditional long-term climate simulations for fast processes in the climate system. The efficiency of the ensemble method makes it particularly useful for the development of high-resolution, costly and complex climate models.

A tool model for predicting atmospheric kinetics with sensitivity analysis

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2001-01-01

A package( a tool model) for program of predicting atmospheric chemical kinetics with sensitivity analysis is presented. The new direct method of calculating the first order sensitivity coefficients using sparse matrix technology to chemical kinetics is included in the tool model, it is only necessary to triangularize the matrix related to the Jacobian matrix of the model equation. The Gear type procedure is used to integrate amodel equation and its coupled auxiliary sensitivity coefficient equations. The FORTRAN subroutines of the model equation, the sensitivity coefficient equations, and their Jacobian analytical expressions are generated automatically from a chemical mechanism. The kinetic representation for the model equation and its sensitivity coefficient equations, and their Jacobian matrix is presented. Various FORTRAN subroutines in packages, such as SLODE, modified MA28, Gear package, with which the program runs in conjunction are recommended.The photo-oxidation of dimethyl disulfide is used for illustration.

On the use of uncertainty analyses to test hypotheses regarding deterministic model predictions of environmental processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, R.O.; Bittner, E.A.; Essington, E.H.

1995-01-01

This paper illustrates the use of Monte Carlo parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to test hypotheses regarding predictions of deterministic models of environmental transport, dose, risk and other phenomena. The methodology is illustrated by testing whether 238 Pu is transferred more readily than 239+240 Pu from the gastrointestinal (GI) tract of cattle to their tissues (muscle, liver and blood). This illustration is based on a study wherein beef-cattle grazed for up to 1064 days on a fenced plutonium (Pu)-contaminated arid site in Area 13 near the Nevada Test Site in the United States. Periodically, cattle were sacrificed and their tissues analyzed for Pu and other radionuclides. Conditional sensitivity analyses of the model predictions were also conducted. These analyses indicated that Pu cattle tissue concentrations had the largest impact of any model parameter on the pdf of predicted Pu fractional transfers. Issues that arise in conducting uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of deterministic models are discussed. (author)

Characterization of strain rate sensitivity and activation volume using the indentation relaxation test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Baoxing; Chen Xi; Yue Zhufeng

2010-01-01

We present the possibility of extracting the strain rate sensitivity, activation volume and Helmholtz free energy (for dislocation activation) using just one indentation stress relaxation test, and the approach is demonstrated with polycrystalline copper. The Helmholtz free energy measured from indentation relaxation agrees well with that from the conventional compression relaxation test, which validates the proposed approach. From the indentation relaxation test, the measured indentation strain rate sensitivity exponent is found to be slightly larger, and the indentation activation volume much smaller, than their counterparts from the compression test. The results indicate the involvement of multiple dislocation mechanisms in the indentation test.

An integrated electrochemical device based on immunochromatographic test strip and enzyme labels for sensitive detection of disease-related biomarkers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zou, Zhexiang; Wang, Jun; Wang, Hua; Li, Yao Q.; Lin, Yuehe

2012-05-30

A novel electrochemical biosensing device that integrates an immunochromatographic test strip and a screen-printed electrode (SPE) connected to a portable electrochemical analyzer was presented for rapid, sensitive, and quantitative detection of disease-related biomarker in human blood samples. The principle of the sensor is based on sandwich immunoreactions between a biomarker and a pair of its antibodies on the test strip, followed by highly sensitive square-wave voltammetry (SWV) detection. Horseradish peroxidase (HRP) was used as a signal reporter for electrochemical readout. Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) was employed as a model protein biomarker to demonstrate the analytical performance of the sensor in this study. Some critical parameters governing the performance of the sensor were investigated in detail. The sensor was further utilized to detect HBsAg in human plasma with an average recovery of 91.3%. In comparison, a colorimetric immunochromatographic test strip assay (ITSA) was also conducted. The result shows that the SWV detection in the electrochemical sensor is much more sensitive for the quantitative determination of HBsAg than the colorimetric detection, indicating that such a sensor is a promising platform for rapid and sensitive point-of-care testing/screening of disease-related biomarkers in a large population

Sensitivity of the improved Dutch tube diffusion test for detection of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The sensitivity of the improved two-tube test for detection of antimicrobial residues in Kenyan milk was investigated by comparison with the commercial Delvo test SP. Suspect positive milk samples (n =244) from five milk collection centers, were analyzed with the improved two-tube and the commercial Delvo SP test as per ...

Optimal Testing Intervals in the Squatting Test to Determine Baroreflex Sensitivity

OpenAIRE

Ishitsuka, S.; Kusuyama, N.; Tanaka, M.

2014-01-01

The recently introduced “squatting test” (ST) utilizes a simple postural change to perturb the blood pressure and to assess baroreflex sensitivity (BRS). In our study, we estimated the reproducibility of and the optimal testing interval between the STs in healthy volunteers. Thirty-four subjects free of cardiovascular disorders and taking no medication were instructed to perform the repeated ST at 30-sec, 1-min, and 3-min intervals in duplicate in a random sequence, while the systolic blood p...

Respiratory panic disorder subtype and sensitivity to the carbon dioxide challenge test

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.M. Valença

2002-07-01

Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to verify the sensitivity to the carbon dioxide (CO2 challenge test of panic disorder (PD patients with respiratory and nonrespiratory subtypes of the disorder. Our hypothesis is that the respiratory subtype is more sensitive to 35% CO2. Twenty-seven PD subjects with or without agoraphobia were classified into respiratory and nonrespiratory subtypes on the basis of the presence of respiratory symptoms during their panic attacks. The tests were carried out in a double-blind manner using two mixtures: 1 35% CO2 and 65% O2, and 2 100% atmospheric compressed air, 20 min apart. The tests were repeated after 2 weeks during which the participants in the study did not receive any psychotropic drugs. At least 15 of 16 (93.7% respiratory PD subtype patients and 5 of 11 (43.4% nonrespiratory PD patients had a panic attack during one of two CO2 challenges (P = 0.009, Fisher exact test. Respiratory PD subtype patients were more sensitive to the CO2 challenge test. There was agreement between the severity of PD measured by the Clinical Global Impression (CGI Scale and the subtype of PD. Higher CGI scores in the respiratory PD subtype could reflect a greater sensitivity to the CO2 challenge due to a greater severity of PD. Carbon dioxide challenges in PD may define PD subtypes and their underlying mechanisms.

Sensitivity study of reduced models of the activated sludge process ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The problem of derivation and calculation of sensitivity functions for all parameters of the mass balance reduced model of the COST benchmark activated sludge plant is formulated and solved. The sensitivity functions, equations and augmented sensitivity state space models are derived for the cases of ASM1 and UCT ...

Sensitivity Analysis of Biome-Bgc Model for Dry Tropical Forests of Vindhyan Highlands, India

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, M.; Raghubanshi, A. S.

2011-08-01

A process-based model BIOME-BGC was run for sensitivity analysis to see the effect of ecophysiological parameters on net primary production (NPP) of dry tropical forest of India. The sensitivity test reveals that the forest NPP was highly sensitive to the following ecophysiological parameters: Canopy light extinction coefficient (k), Canopy average specific leaf area (SLA), New stem C : New leaf C (SC:LC), Maximum stomatal conductance (gs,max), C:N of fine roots (C:Nfr), All-sided to projected leaf area ratio and Canopy water interception coefficient (Wint). Therefore, these parameters need more precision and attention during estimation and observation in the field studies.

Sensitivity Analysis and Parameter Estimation for a Reactive Transport Model of Uranium Bioremediation

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, P. D.; Yabusaki, S.; Curtis, G. P.; Ye, M.; Fang, Y.

2011-12-01

A three-dimensional, variably-saturated flow and multicomponent biogeochemical reactive transport model of uranium bioremediation was used to generate synthetic data . The 3-D model was based on a field experiment at the U.S. Dept. of Energy Rifle Integrated Field Research Challenge site that used acetate biostimulation of indigenous metal reducing bacteria to catalyze the conversion of aqueous uranium in the +6 oxidation state to immobile solid-associated uranium in the +4 oxidation state. A key assumption in past modeling studies at this site was that a comprehensive reaction network could be developed largely through one-dimensional modeling. Sensitivity analyses and parameter estimation were completed for a 1-D reactive transport model abstracted from the 3-D model to test this assumption, to identify parameters with the greatest potential to contribute to model predictive uncertainty, and to evaluate model structure and data limitations. Results showed that sensitivities of key biogeochemical concentrations varied in space and time, that model nonlinearities and/or parameter interactions have a significant impact on calculated sensitivities, and that the complexity of the model's representation of processes affecting Fe(II) in the system may make it difficult to correctly attribute observed Fe(II) behavior to modeled processes. Non-uniformity of the 3-D simulated groundwater flux and averaging of the 3-D synthetic data for use as calibration targets in the 1-D modeling resulted in systematic errors in the 1-D model parameter estimates and outputs. This occurred despite using the same reaction network for 1-D modeling as used in the data-generating 3-D model. Predictive uncertainty of the 1-D model appeared to be significantly underestimated by linear parameter uncertainty estimates.

A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

KAUST Repository

Boas, Sonja E. M.

2015-11-21

Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models.

Science.gov (United States)

Boas, Sonja E M; Navarro Jimenez, Maria I; Merks, Roeland M H; Blom, Joke G

2015-11-21

Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such 'black-box' models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all 'black-box' models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

Sensitivity of precipitation to parameter values in the community atmosphere model version 5

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johannesson, Gardar; Lucas, Donald; Qian, Yun; Swiler, Laura Painton; Wildey, Timothy Michael

2014-03-01

One objective of the Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF) program is to develop the capability to thoroughly test and understand the uncertainties in the overall climate model and its components as they are being developed. The focus on uncertainties involves sensitivity analysis: the capability to determine which input parameters have a major influence on the output responses of interest. This report presents some initial sensitivity analysis results performed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LNNL), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). In the 2011-2012 timeframe, these laboratories worked in collaboration to perform sensitivity analyses of a set of CAM5, 2° runs, where the response metrics of interest were precipitation metrics. The three labs performed their sensitivity analysis (SA) studies separately and then compared results. Overall, the results were quite consistent with each other although the methods used were different. This exercise provided a robustness check of the global sensitivity analysis metrics and identified some strongly influential parameters.

Sensitivity Analysis of OECD Benchmark Tests in BISON

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Swiler, Laura Painton [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gamble, Kyle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Schmidt, Rodney C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Williamson, Richard [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-09-01

This report summarizes a NEAMS (Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation) project focused on sensitivity analysis of a fuels performance benchmark problem. The benchmark problem was defined by the Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling working group of the Nuclear Science Committee, part of the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD ). The benchmark problem involv ed steady - state behavior of a fuel pin in a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The problem was created in the BISON Fuels Performance code. Dakota was used to generate and analyze 300 samples of 17 input parameters defining core boundary conditions, manuf acturing tolerances , and fuel properties. There were 24 responses of interest, including fuel centerline temperatures at a variety of locations and burnup levels, fission gas released, axial elongation of the fuel pin, etc. Pearson and Spearman correlatio n coefficients and Sobol' variance - based indices were used to perform the sensitivity analysis. This report summarizes the process and presents results from this study.

Sensitivity analysis technique for application to deterministic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishigami, T.; Cazzoli, E.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Unwin, S.D.

1987-01-01

The characterization of sever accident source terms for light water reactors should include consideration of uncertainties. An important element of any uncertainty analysis is an evaluation of the sensitivity of the output probability distributions reflecting source term uncertainties to assumptions regarding the input probability distributions. Historically, response surface methods (RSMs) were developed to replace physical models using, for example, regression techniques, with simplified models for example, regression techniques, with simplified models for extensive calculations. The purpose of this paper is to present a new method for sensitivity analysis that does not utilize RSM, but instead relies directly on the results obtained from the original computer code calculations. The merits of this approach are demonstrated by application of the proposed method to the suppression pool aerosol removal code (SPARC), and the results are compared with those obtained by sensitivity analysis with (a) the code itself, (b) a regression model, and (c) Iman's method

Demonstration uncertainty/sensitivity analysis using the health and economic consequence model CRAC2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alpert, D.J.; Iman, R.L.; Johnson, J.D.; Helton, J.C.

1985-01-01

This paper summarizes a demonstration uncertainty/sensitivity analysis performed on the reactor accident consequence model CRAC2. The study was performed with uncertainty/sensitivity analysis techniques compiled as part of the MELCOR program. The principal objectives of the study were: 1) to demonstrate the use of the uncertainty/sensitivity analysis techniques on a health and economic consequence model, 2) to test the computer models which implement the techniques, 3) to identify possible difficulties in performing such an analysis, and 4) to explore alternative means of analyzing, displaying, and describing the results. Demonstration of the applicability of the techniques was the motivation for performing this study; thus, the results should not be taken as a definitive uncertainty analysis of health and economic consequences. Nevertheless, significant insights on health and economic consequence analysis can be drawn from the results of this type of study. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), a modified Monte Carlo technique, was used in this study. LHS generates a multivariate input structure in which all the variables of interest are varied simultaneously and desired correlations between variables are preserved. LHS has been shown to produce estimates of output distribution functions that are comparable with results of larger random samples

Factors influencing antibiotic prescribing habits and use of sensitivity testing amongst veterinarians in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

De Briyne, N; Atkinson, J; Pokludová, L; Borriello, S P; Price, S

2013-11-16

The Heads of Medicines Agencies and the Federation of Veterinarians of Europe undertook a survey to gain a better insight into the decision-making process of veterinarians in Europe when deciding which antibiotics to prescribe. The survey was completed by 3004 practitioners from 25 European countries. Analysis was to the level of different types of practitioner (food producing (FP) animals, companion animals, equines) and country for Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Spain, Sweden and the UK. Responses indicate no single information source is universally considered critical, though training, published literature and experience were the most important. Factors recorded which most strongly influenced prescribing behaviour were sensitivity tests, own experience, the risk for antibiotic resistance developing and ease of administration. Most practitioners usually take into account responsible use warnings. Antibiotic sensitivity testing is usually performed where a treatment failure has occurred. Significant differences were observed in the frequency of sensitivity testing at the level of types of practitioners and country. The responses indicate a need to improve sensitivity tests and services, with the availability of rapid and cheaper testing being key factors.

LBLOCA sensitivity analysis using meta models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Villamizar, M.; Sanchez-Saez, F.; Villanueva, J.F.; Carlos, S.; Sanchez, A.I.; Martorell, S.

2014-01-01

This paper presents an approach to perform the sensitivity analysis of the results of simulation of thermal hydraulic codes within a BEPU approach. Sensitivity analysis is based on the computation of Sobol' indices that makes use of a meta model, It presents also an application to a Large-Break Loss of Coolant Accident, LBLOCA, in the cold leg of a pressurized water reactor, PWR, addressing the results of the BEMUSE program and using the thermal-hydraulic code TRACE. (authors)

Solar Sail Models and Test Measurements Correspondence for Validation Requirements Definition

Science.gov (United States)

Ewing, Anthony; Adams, Charles

2004-01-01

Solar sails are being developed as a mission-enabling technology in support of future NASA science missions. Current efforts have advanced solar sail technology sufficient to justify a flight validation program. A primary objective of this activity is to test and validate solar sail models that are currently under development so that they may be used with confidence in future science mission development (e.g., scalable to larger sails). Both system and model validation requirements must be defined early in the program to guide design cycles and to ensure that relevant and sufficient test data will be obtained to conduct model validation to the level required. A process of model identification, model input/output documentation, model sensitivity analyses, and test measurement correspondence is required so that decisions can be made to satisfy validation requirements within program constraints.

Screening Test for Detection of Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say Sensitivity to Insecticides

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dušanka Inđić

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In 2009, the sensitivity of 15 field populations of Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsadecemlineata Say. - CPB was assessed to chlorpyrifos, cypermethrin, thiamethoxam and fipronil,four insecticides which are mostly used for its control in Serbia. Screening test that allows rapidassessment of sensitivity of overwintered adults to insecticides was performed. Insecticideswere applied at label rates, and two, five and 10 fold higher rates by soaking method (5 sec.Mortality was assessed after 72h. From 15 monitored populations of CPB, two were sensitiveto label rate of chlorpyrifos, one was slightly resistant, 11 were resistant and one populationwas highly resistant. Concerning cypermethrin, two populations were sensitive, two slightlyresistant, five were resistant and six highly resistant. Highly sensitive to thiamethoxam labelrate were 12 populations, while three were sensitive. In the case of fipronil applied at label rate,two populations were highly sensitive, six sensitive, one slightly resistant and six were resistant.The application of insecticides at higher rates (2, 5 and 10 fold, that is justified only in bioassays,provided a rapid insight into sensitivity of field populations of CPB to insecticides.

A simple in chemico method for testing skin sensitizing potential of chemicals using small endogenous molecules.

Science.gov (United States)

Nepal, Mahesh Raj; Shakya, Rajina; Kang, Mi Jeong; Jeong, Tae Cheon

2018-06-01

Among many of the validated methods for testing skin sensitization, direct peptide reactivity assay (DPRA) employs no cells or animals. Although no immune cells are involved in this assay, it reliably predicts the skin sensitization potential of a chemical in chemico. Herein, a new method was developed using endogenous small-molecular-weight compounds, cysteamine and glutathione, rather than synthetic peptides, to differentiate skin sensitizers from non-sensitizers with an accuracy as high as DPRA. The percent depletion of cysteamine and glutathione by test chemicals was measured by an HPLC equipped with a PDA detector. To detect small-size molecules, such as cysteamine and glutathione, a derivatization by 4-(4-dimethylaminophenylazo) benzenesulfonyl chloride (DABS-Cl) was employed prior to the HPLC analysis. Following test method optimization, a cut-off criterion of 7.14% depletion was applied to differentiate skin sensitizers from non-sensitizers in combination of the ratio of 1:25 for cysteamine:test chemical with 1:50 for glutathione:test chemical for the best predictivity among various single or combination conditions. Although overlapping HPLC peaks could not be fully resolved for some test chemicals, high levels of sensitivity (100.0%), specificity (81.8%), and accuracy (93.3%) were obtained for 30 chemicals tested, which were comparable or better than those achieved with DPRA. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity study on hydraulic well testing inversion using simulated annealing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakao, Shinsuke; Najita, J.; Karasaki, Kenzi

1997-11-01

For environmental remediation, management of nuclear waste disposal, or geothermal reservoir engineering, it is very important to evaluate the permeabilities, spacing, and sizes of the subsurface fractures which control ground water flow. Cluster variable aperture (CVA) simulated annealing has been used as an inversion technique to construct fluid flow models of fractured formations based on transient pressure data from hydraulic tests. A two-dimensional fracture network system is represented as a filled regular lattice of fracture elements. The algorithm iteratively changes an aperture of cluster of fracture elements, which are chosen randomly from a list of discrete apertures, to improve the match to observed pressure transients. The size of the clusters is held constant throughout the iterations. Sensitivity studies using simple fracture models with eight wells show that, in general, it is necessary to conduct interference tests using at least three different wells as pumping well in order to reconstruct the fracture network with a transmissivity contrast of one order of magnitude, particularly when the cluster size is not known a priori. Because hydraulic inversion is inherently non-unique, it is important to utilize additional information. The authors investigated the relationship between the scale of heterogeneity and the optimum cluster size (and its shape) to enhance the reliability and convergence of the inversion. It appears that the cluster size corresponding to about 20--40 % of the practical range of the spatial correlation is optimal. Inversion results of the Raymond test site data are also presented and the practical range of spatial correlation is evaluated to be about 5--10 m from the optimal cluster size in the inversion

Sensitivity study on hydraulic well testing inversion using simulated annealing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nakao, Shinsuke; Najita, J.; Karasaki, Kenzi

1997-11-01

For environmental remediation, management of nuclear waste disposal, or geothermal reservoir engineering, it is very important to evaluate the permeabilities, spacing, and sizes of the subsurface fractures which control ground water flow. Cluster variable aperture (CVA) simulated annealing has been used as an inversion technique to construct fluid flow models of fractured formations based on transient pressure data from hydraulic tests. A two-dimensional fracture network system is represented as a filled regular lattice of fracture elements. The algorithm iteratively changes an aperture of cluster of fracture elements, which are chosen randomly from a list of discrete apertures, to improve the match to observed pressure transients. The size of the clusters is held constant throughout the iterations. Sensitivity studies using simple fracture models with eight wells show that, in general, it is necessary to conduct interference tests using at least three different wells as pumping well in order to reconstruct the fracture network with a transmissivity contrast of one order of magnitude, particularly when the cluster size is not known a priori. Because hydraulic inversion is inherently non-unique, it is important to utilize additional information. The authors investigated the relationship between the scale of heterogeneity and the optimum cluster size (and its shape) to enhance the reliability and convergence of the inversion. It appears that the cluster size corresponding to about 20--40 % of the practical range of the spatial correlation is optimal. Inversion results of the Raymond test site data are also presented and the practical range of spatial correlation is evaluated to be about 5--10 m from the optimal cluster size in the inversion.

Sensitivity and specificity of the AdenoPlus test for diagnosing adenoviral conjunctivitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sambursky, Robert; Trattler, William; Tauber, Shachar; Starr, Christopher; Friedberg, Murray; Boland, Thomas; McDonald, Marguerite; DellaVecchia, Michael; Luchs, Jodi

2013-01-01

To compare the clinical sensitivity and specificity of the AdenoPlus test with those of both viral cell culture (CC) with confirmatory immunofluorescence assay (IFA) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) at detecting the presence of adenovirus in tear fluid. A prospective, sequential, masked, multicenter clinical trial enrolled 128 patients presenting with a clinical diagnosis of acute viral conjunctivitis from a combination of 8 private ophthalmology practices and academic centers. Patients were tested with AdenoPlus, CC-IFA, and PCR to detect the presence of adenovirus. The sensitivity and specificity of AdenoPlus were assessed for identifying cases of adenoviral conjunctivitis. Of the 128 patients enrolled, 36 patients' results were found to be positive by either CC-IFA or PCR and 29 patients' results were found to be positive by both CC-IFA and PCR. When compared only with CC-IFA, AdenoPlus showed a sensitivity of 90% (28/31) and specificity of 96% (93/97). When compared only with PCR, AdenoPlus showed a sensitivity of 85% (29/34) and specificity of 98% (89/91). When compared with both CC-IFA and PCR, AdenoPlus showed a sensitivity of 93% (27/29) and specificity of 98% (88/90). When compared with PCR, CC-IFA showed a sensitivity of 85% (29/34) and specificity of 99% (90/91). AdenoPlus is sensitive and specific at detecting adenoviral conjunctivitis. An accurate and rapid in-office test can prevent the misdiagnosis of adenoviral conjunctivitis that leads to the spread of disease, unnecessary antibiotic use, and increased health care costs. Additionally, AdenoPlus may help a clinician make a more informed treatment decision regarding the use of novel therapeutics. clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00921895.

Hypersonic Separated Flows About "Tick" Configurations With Sensitivity to Model Design

Science.gov (United States)

Moss, J. N.; O'Byrne, S.; Gai, S. L.

2014-01-01

This paper presents computational results obtained by applying the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method for hypersonic nonequilibrium flow about "tick-shaped" model configurations. These test models produces a complex flow where the nonequilibrium and rarefied aspects of the flow are initially enhanced as the flow passes over an expansion surface, and then the flow encounters a compression surface that can induce flow separation. The resulting flow is such that meaningful numerical simulations must have the capability to account for a significant range of rarefaction effects; hence the application of the DSMC method in the current study as the flow spans several flow regimes, including transitional, slip, and continuum. The current focus is to examine the sensitivity of both the model surface response (heating, friction and pressure) and flowfield structure to assumptions regarding surface boundary conditions and more extensively the impact of model design as influenced by leading edge configuration as well as the geometrical features of the expansion and compression surfaces. Numerical results indicate a strong sensitivity to both the extent of the leading edge sharpness and the magnitude of the leading edge bevel angle. Also, the length of the expansion surface for a fixed compression surface has a significant impact on the extent of separated flow.

Indicators of Ceriodaphnia dubia chronic toxicity test performance and sensitivity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosebrock, M.M.; Bedwell, N.J.; Ausley, L.W. [North Carolina Division of Environmental Management, Raleigh, NC (United States)

1994-12-31

The North Carolina Division of Environmental Management has begun evaluation of the sensitivity of test results used for measuring chronic whole effluent toxicity in North Carolina wastewater discharges. Approximately 67% of 565 facilities required to monitor toxicity by an NPDES permit perform a Ceriodaphnia dubia chronic, single effluent concentration (pass/fail) analysis. Data from valid Ceriodaphnia dubia chronic pass/fail tests performed by approximately 20 certified biological laboratories and submitted by North Carolina NPDES permittees were recorded beginning January 1992. Control and treatment reproduction data from over 2,500 tests submitted since 1992 were analyzed to determine the minimum significant difference (MSD) at a 99% confidence level for each test and the percent reduction from the control mean that the MSD represents (%MSD) for each certified laboratory. Initial results for the 20 laboratories indicate that the average intralaboratory percent MSD ranges 12.72% (n = 367) to 34.91% (n = 7) with an average of 23.08%. Additionally, over 3,800 tests were analyzed to determine the coefficient of variation (CV) for control reproduction for each test and the average for each certified biological laboratory. Preliminary review indicates that average interlaboratory control reproduction CV values range from 10.59% (n = 367) to 31.08% (n = 572) with a mean of 20.35%. The statistics investigated are indicators of intra/interlaboratory performance and sensitivity of Ceriodaphnia chronic toxicity analyses.

Sensitivity analysis of infectious disease models: methods, advances and their application

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jianyong; Dhingra, Radhika; Gambhir, Manoj; Remais, Justin V.

2013-01-01

Sensitivity analysis (SA) can aid in identifying influential model parameters and optimizing model structure, yet infectious disease modelling has yet to adopt advanced SA techniques that are capable of providing considerable insights over traditional methods. We investigate five global SA methods—scatter plots, the Morris and Sobol’ methods, Latin hypercube sampling-partial rank correlation coefficient and the sensitivity heat map method—and detail their relative merits and pitfalls when applied to a microparasite (cholera) and macroparasite (schistosomaisis) transmission model. The methods investigated yielded similar results with respect to identifying influential parameters, but offered specific insights that vary by method. The classical methods differed in their ability to provide information on the quantitative relationship between parameters and model output, particularly over time. The heat map approach provides information about the group sensitivity of all model state variables, and the parameter sensitivity spectrum obtained using this method reveals the sensitivity of all state variables to each parameter over the course of the simulation period, especially valuable for expressing the dynamic sensitivity of a microparasite epidemic model to its parameters. A summary comparison is presented to aid infectious disease modellers in selecting appropriate methods, with the goal of improving model performance and design. PMID:23864497

Adaptive Management Plan for Sensitive Plant Species on the Nevada Test Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wills, C. A.

2001-01-01

The Nevada Test Site supports numerous plant species considered sensitive because of their past or present status under the Endangered Species Act and with federal and state agencies. In 1998, the U.S. Department of Energy, Nevada Operation Office (DOE/NV) prepared a Resource Management Plan which commits to protects and conserve these sensitive plant species and to minimize accumulative impacts to them. This document presents the procedures of a long-term adaptive management plan which is meant to ensure that these goals are met. It identifies the parameters that are measured for all sensitive plant populations during long-term monitoring and the adaptive management actions which may be taken if significant threats to these populations are detected. This plan does not, however, identify the current list of sensitive plant species know to occur on the Nevada Test Site. The current species list and progress on their monitoring is reported annually by DOE/NV in the Resource Management Plan

Sensitivity of fluvial sediment source apportionment to mixing model assumptions: A Bayesian model comparison.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Richard J; Krueger, Tobias; Hiscock, Kevin M; Rawlins, Barry G

2014-11-01

Mixing models have become increasingly common tools for apportioning fluvial sediment load to various sediment sources across catchments using a wide variety of Bayesian and frequentist modeling approaches. In this study, we demonstrate how different model setups can impact upon resulting source apportionment estimates in a Bayesian framework via a one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) sensitivity analysis. We formulate 13 versions of a mixing model, each with different error assumptions and model structural choices, and apply them to sediment geochemistry data from the River Blackwater, Norfolk, UK, to apportion suspended particulate matter (SPM) contributions from three sources (arable topsoils, road verges, and subsurface material) under base flow conditions between August 2012 and August 2013. Whilst all 13 models estimate subsurface sources to be the largest contributor of SPM (median ∼76%), comparison of apportionment estimates reveal varying degrees of sensitivity to changing priors, inclusion of covariance terms, incorporation of time-variant distributions, and methods of proportion characterization. We also demonstrate differences in apportionment results between a full and an empirical Bayesian setup, and between a Bayesian and a frequentist optimization approach. This OFAT sensitivity analysis reveals that mixing model structural choices and error assumptions can significantly impact upon sediment source apportionment results, with estimated median contributions in this study varying by up to 21% between model versions. Users of mixing models are therefore strongly advised to carefully consider and justify their choice of model structure prior to conducting sediment source apportionment investigations. An OFAT sensitivity analysis of sediment fingerprinting mixing models is conductedBayesian models display high sensitivity to error assumptions and structural choicesSource apportionment results differ between Bayesian and frequentist approaches.

Field test investigation of high sensitivity fiber optic seismic geophone

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Meng; Min, Li; Zhang, Xiaolei; Zhang, Faxiang; Sun, Zhihui; Li, Shujuan; Wang, Chang; Zhao, Zhong; Hao, Guanghu

2017-10-01

Seismic reflection, whose measured signal is the artificial seismic waves ,is the most effective method and widely used in the geophysical prospecting. And this method can be used for exploration of oil, gas and coal. When a seismic wave travelling through the Earth encounters an interface between two materials with different acoustic impedances, some of the wave energy will reflect off the interface and some will refract through the interface. At its most basic, the seismic reflection technique consists of generating seismic waves and measuring the time taken for the waves to travel from the source, reflect off an interface and be detected by an array of geophones at the surface. Compared to traditional geophones such as electric, magnetic, mechanical and gas geophone, optical fiber geophones have many advantages. Optical fiber geophones can achieve sensing and signal transmission simultaneously. With the development of fiber grating sensor technology, fiber bragg grating (FBG) is being applied in seismic exploration and draws more and more attention to its advantage of anti-electromagnetic interference, high sensitivity and insensitivity to meteorological conditions. In this paper, we designed a high sensitivity geophone and tested its sensitivity, based on the theory of FBG sensing. The frequency response range is from 10 Hz to 100 Hz and the acceleration of the fiber optic seismic geophone is over 1000pm/g. sixteen-element fiber optic seismic geophone array system is presented and the field test is performed in Shengli oilfield of China. The field test shows that: (1) the fiber optic seismic geophone has a higher sensitivity than the traditional geophone between 1-100 Hz;(2) The low frequency reflection wave continuity of fiber Bragg grating geophone is better.

The diagnostic sensitivity of dengue rapid test assays is significantly enhanced by using a combined antigen and antibody testing approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Scott R Fry

2011-06-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Serological tests for IgM and IgG are routinely used in clinical laboratories for the rapid diagnosis of dengue and can differentiate between primary and secondary infections. Dengue virus non-structural protein 1 (NS1 has been identified as an early marker for acute dengue, and is typically present between days 1-9 post-onset of illness but following seroconversion it can be difficult to detect in serum. AIMS: To evaluate the performance of a newly developed Panbio® Dengue Early Rapid test for NS1 and determine if it can improve diagnostic sensitivity when used in combination with a commercial IgM/IgG rapid test. METHODOLOGY: The clinical performance of the Dengue Early Rapid was evaluated in a retrospective study in Vietnam with 198 acute laboratory-confirmed positive and 100 negative samples. The performance of the Dengue Early Rapid in combination with the IgM/IgG Rapid test was also evaluated in Malaysia with 263 laboratory-confirmed positive and 30 negative samples. KEY RESULTS: In Vietnam the sensitivity and specificity of the test was 69.2% (95% CI: 62.8% to 75.6% and 96% (95% CI: 92.2% to 99.8 respectively. In Malaysia the performance was similar with 68.9% sensitivity (95% CI: 61.8% to 76.1% and 96.7% specificity (95% CI: 82.8% to 99.9% compared to RT-PCR. Importantly, when the Dengue Early Rapid test was used in combination with the IgM/IgG test the sensitivity increased to 93.0%. When the two tests were compared at each day post-onset of illness there was clear differentiation between the antigen and antibody markers. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights that using dengue NS1 antigen detection in combination with anti-glycoprotein E IgM and IgG serology can significantly increase the sensitivity of acute dengue diagnosis and extends the possible window of detection to include very early acute samples and enhances the clinical utility of rapid immunochromatographic testing for dengue.

Personalization of models with many model parameters : an efficient sensitivity analysis approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Donders, W.P.; Huberts, W.; van de Vosse, F.N.; Delhaas, T.

2015-01-01

Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis are indispensable for patient-specific applications of models that enhance diagnosis or aid decision-making. Variance-based sensitivity analysis methods, which apportion each fraction of the output uncertainty (variance) to the effects of

A new framework for the interpretation of IgE sensitization tests

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Roberts, G; Ollert, M; Aalberse, R.

2016-01-01

tests to make a definitive diagnosis; these are often expensive and potentially associated with severe reactions. The likelihood of clinical allergy can be semi-quantified from an IgE sensitization test results. This relationship varies though according to the patients' age, ethnicity, nature...... of the putative allergic reaction and coexisting clinical diseases such as eczema. The likelihood of clinical allergy can be more precisely estimated from an IgE sensitization test result, by taking into account the patient's presenting features (pretest probability). The presence of each of these patient...... pretest probabilities for diverse setting, regions and allergens. Also, cofactors, such as exercise, may be necessary for exposure to an allergen to result in an allergic reaction in specific IgE-positive patients. The diagnosis of IgE-mediated allergy is now being aided by the introduction of allergen...

Probabilistic hazard assessment for skin sensitization potency by dose–response modeling using feature elimination instead of quantitative structure–activity relationships

Science.gov (United States)

McKim, James M.; Hartung, Thomas; Kleensang, Andre; Sá-Rocha, Vanessa

2016-01-01

Supervised learning methods promise to improve integrated testing strategies (ITS), but must be adjusted to handle high dimensionality and dose–response data. ITS approaches are currently fueled by the increasing mechanistic understanding of adverse outcome pathways (AOP) and the development of tests reflecting these mechanisms. Simple approaches to combine skin sensitization data sets, such as weight of evidence, fail due to problems in information redundancy and high dimension-ality. The problem is further amplified when potency information (dose/response) of hazards would be estimated. Skin sensitization currently serves as the foster child for AOP and ITS development, as legislative pressures combined with a very good mechanistic understanding of contact dermatitis have led to test development and relatively large high-quality data sets. We curated such a data set and combined a recursive variable selection algorithm to evaluate the information available through in silico, in chemico and in vitro assays. Chemical similarity alone could not cluster chemicals’ potency, and in vitro models consistently ranked high in recursive feature elimination. This allows reducing the number of tests included in an ITS. Next, we analyzed with a hidden Markov model that takes advantage of an intrinsic inter-relationship among the local lymph node assay classes, i.e. the monotonous connection between local lymph node assay and dose. The dose-informed random forest/hidden Markov model was superior to the dose-naive random forest model on all data sets. Although balanced accuracy improvement may seem small, this obscures the actual improvement in misclassifications as the dose-informed hidden Markov model strongly reduced "false-negatives" (i.e. extreme sensitizers as non-sensitizer) on all data sets. PMID:26046447

Consistency test of the standard model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pawlowski, M.; Raczka, R.

1997-01-01

If the 'Higgs mass' is not the physical mass of a real particle but rather an effective ultraviolet cutoff then a process energy dependence of this cutoff must be admitted. Precision data from at least two energy scale experimental points are necessary to test this hypothesis. The first set of precision data is provided by the Z-boson peak experiments. We argue that the second set can be given by 10-20 GeV e + e - colliders. We pay attention to the special role of tau polarization experiments that can be sensitive to the 'Higgs mass' for a sample of ∼ 10 8 produced tau pairs. We argue that such a study may be regarded as a negative selfconsistency test of the Standard Model and of most of its extensions

Biodegradable Polymers Induce CD54 on THP-1 Cells in Skin Sensitization Test.

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, Yeon Suk; Kato, Reiko; Tsuchiya, Toshie

2011-01-01

Currently, nonanimal methods of skin sensitization testing for various chemicals, biodegradable polymers, and biomaterials are being developed in the hope of eliminating the use of animals. The human cell line activation test (h-CLAT) is a skin sensitization assessment that mimics the functions of dendritic cells (DCs). DCs are specialized antigen-presenting cells, and they interact with T cells and B cells to initiate immune responses. Phenotypic changes in DCs, such as the production of CD86 and CD54 and internalization of MHC class II molecules, have become focal points of the skin sensitization test. In this study, we used h-CLAT to assess the effects of biodegradable polymers. The results showed that several biodegradable polymers increased the expression of CD54, and the relative skin sensitizing abilities of biodegradable polymers were PLLG (75 : 25) < PLLC (40 : 60) < PLGA (50 : 50) < PCG (50 : 50). These results may contribute to the creation of new guidelines for the use of biodegradable polymers in scaffolds or allergenic hazards.

Biodegradable Polymers Induce CD54 on THP-1 Cells in Skin Sensitization Test

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yeon Suk Jung

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Currently, nonanimal methods of skin sensitization testing for various chemicals, biodegradable polymers, and biomaterials are being developed in the hope of eliminating the use of animals. The human cell line activation test (h-CLAT is a skin sensitization assessment that mimics the functions of dendritic cells (DCs. DCs are specialized antigen-presenting cells, and they interact with T cells and B cells to initiate immune responses. Phenotypic changes in DCs, such as the production of CD86 and CD54 and internalization of MHC class II molecules, have become focal points of the skin sensitization test. In this study, we used h-CLAT to assess the effects of biodegradable polymers. The results showed that several biodegradable polymers increased the expression of CD54, and the relative skin sensitizing abilities of biodegradable polymers were PLLG (75 : 25 < PLLC (40 : 60 < PLGA (50 : 50 < PCG (50 : 50. These results may contribute to the creation of new guidelines for the use of biodegradable polymers in scaffolds or allergenic hazards.

Sensitivity analysis and calibration of a dynamic physically based slope stability model

Science.gov (United States)

Zieher, Thomas; Rutzinger, Martin; Schneider-Muntau, Barbara; Perzl, Frank; Leidinger, David; Formayer, Herbert; Geitner, Clemens

2017-06-01

Physically based modelling of slope stability on a catchment scale is still a challenging task. When applying a physically based model on such a scale (1 : 10 000 to 1 : 50 000), parameters with a high impact on the model result should be calibrated to account for (i) the spatial variability of parameter values, (ii) shortcomings of the selected model, (iii) uncertainties of laboratory tests and field measurements or (iv) parameters that cannot be derived experimentally or measured in the field (e.g. calibration constants). While systematic parameter calibration is a common task in hydrological modelling, this is rarely done using physically based slope stability models. In the present study a dynamic, physically based, coupled hydrological-geomechanical slope stability model is calibrated based on a limited number of laboratory tests and a detailed multitemporal shallow landslide inventory covering two landslide-triggering rainfall events in the Laternser valley, Vorarlberg (Austria). Sensitive parameters are identified based on a local one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis. These parameters (hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, angle of internal friction for effective stress, cohesion for effective stress) are systematically sampled and calibrated for a landslide-triggering rainfall event in August 2005. The identified model ensemble, including 25 behavioural model runs with the highest portion of correctly predicted landslides and non-landslides, is then validated with another landslide-triggering rainfall event in May 1999. The identified model ensemble correctly predicts the location and the supposed triggering timing of 73.0 % of the observed landslides triggered in August 2005 and 91.5 % of the observed landslides triggered in May 1999. Results of the model ensemble driven with raised precipitation input reveal a slight increase in areas potentially affected by slope failure. At the same time, the peak run-off increases more markedly, suggesting that

ATLAS MDT neutron sensitivity measurement and modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahlen, S.; Hu, G.; Osborne, D.; Schulz, A.; Shank, J.; Xu, Q.; Zhou, B.

2003-01-01

The sensitivity of the ATLAS precision muon detector element, the Monitored Drift Tube (MDT), to fast neutrons has been measured using a 5.5 MeV Van de Graaff accelerator. The major mechanism of neutron-induced signals in the drift tubes is the elastic collisions between the neutrons and the gas nuclei. The recoil nuclei lose kinetic energy in the gas and produce the signals. By measuring the ATLAS drift tube neutron-induced signal rate and the total neutron flux, the MDT neutron signal sensitivities were determined for different drift gas mixtures and for different neutron beam energies. We also developed a sophisticated simulation model to calculate the neutron-induced signal rate and signal spectrum for ATLAS MDT operation configurations. The calculations agree with the measurements very well. This model can be used to calculate the neutron sensitivities for different gaseous detectors and for neutron energies above those available to this experiment

Sensitivity Analysis of a Simplified Fire Dynamic Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt; Nielsen, Anker

2015-01-01

This paper discusses a method for performing a sensitivity analysis of parameters used in a simplified fire model for temperature estimates in the upper smoke layer during a fire. The results from the sensitivity analysis can be used when individual parameters affecting fire safety are assessed...

Test-retest reliability and sensitivity of the 20-meter walk test among patients with knee osteoarthritis.

Science.gov (United States)

Motyl, Jillian M; Driban, Jeffrey B; McAdams, Erica; Price, Lori Lyn; McAlindon, Timothy E

2013-05-10

The 20-meter walk test is a physical function measure commonly used in clinical research studies and rehabilitation clinics to measure gait speed and monitor changes in patients' physical function over time. Unfortunately, the reliability and sensitivity of this walk test are not well defined and, therefore, limit our ability to evaluate real changes in gait speed not attributable to normal variability. The aim of this study was to assess the test-restest reliability and sensitivity of the 20-meter walk test, at a self-selected pace, among patients with mild to moderate knee osteoarthritis (OA) and to suggest a standardized protocol for future test administration. This was a measurement reliability study. Fifteen consecutive people enrolled in a randomized-controlled trial of intra-articular corticosteroid injections for knee OA participated in this study. All participants completed 4 trials on 2 separate days, 7 to 21 days apart (8 trials total). Each day was divided into 2 sessions, which each involved 2 walking trials. We compared walk times between trials with Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Similar analyses compared average walk times between sessions. To confirm these analyses, we also calculated Spearman correlation coefficients to assess the relationship between sessions. Finally, smallest detectable differences (SDD) were calculated to estimate the sensitivity of the 20-meter walk test. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests between trials within the same session demonstrated that trials in session 1 were significantly different and in the subsequent 3 sessions, the median differences between trials were not significantly different. Therefore, the first session of each day was considered a practice session, and the SDD between the second session of each day were calculated. SDD was -1.59 seconds (walking slower) and 0.15 seconds (walking faster). Practice trials and a standardized protocol should be used in administration of the 20-meter walk test. Changes in walk time

A New Computationally Frugal Method For Sensitivity Analysis Of Environmental Models

Science.gov (United States)

Rakovec, O.; Hill, M. C.; Clark, M. P.; Weerts, A.; Teuling, R.; Borgonovo, E.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2013-12-01

Effective and efficient parameter sensitivity analysis methods are crucial to understand the behaviour of complex environmental models and use of models in risk assessment. This paper proposes a new computationally frugal method for analyzing parameter sensitivity: the Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA). The DELSA method can be considered a hybrid of local and global methods, and focuses explicitly on multiscale evaluation of parameter sensitivity across the parameter space. Results of the DELSA method are compared with the popular global, variance-based Sobol' method and the delta method. We assess the parameter sensitivity of both (1) a simple non-linear reservoir model with only two parameters, and (2) five different "bucket-style" hydrologic models applied to a medium-sized catchment (200 km2) in the Belgian Ardennes. Results show that in both the synthetic and real-world examples, the global Sobol' method and the DELSA method provide similar sensitivities, with the DELSA method providing more detailed insight at much lower computational cost. The ability to understand how sensitivity measures vary through parameter space with modest computational requirements provides exciting new opportunities.

Repeated patch testing to nickel during childhood do not induce nickel sensitization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Søgaard Christiansen, Elisabeth

2014-01-01

Background: Previously, patch test reactivity to nickel sulphate in a cohort of unselected infants tested repeatedly at 3-72 months of age has been reported. A reproducible positive reaction at 12 and 18 months was selected as a sign of nickel sensitivity, provided a patch test with an empty Finn...

Sensitive KIT D816V mutation analysis of blood as a diagnostic test in mastocytosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kielsgaard Kristensen, Thomas; Vestergaard, Hanne; Bindslev-Jensen, Carsten

2014-01-01

The recent progress in sensitive KIT D816V mutation analysis suggests that mutation analysis of peripheral blood (PB) represents a promising diagnostic test in mastocytosis. However, there is a need for systematic assessment of the analytical sensitivity and specificity of the approach in order...... to establish its value in clinical use. We therefore evaluated sensitive KIT D816V mutation analysis of PB as a diagnostic test in an entire case-series of adults with mastocytosis. We demonstrate for the first time that by using a sufficiently sensitive KIT D816V mutation analysis, it is possible to detect...... the mutation in PB in nearly all adult mastocytosis patients. The mutation was detected in PB in 78 of 83 systemic mastocytosis (94%) and 3 of 4 cutaneous mastocytosis patients (75%). The test was 100% specific as determined by analysis of clinically relevant control patients who all tested negative. Mutation...

The Sandia MEMS Passive Shock Sensor : FY08 testing for functionality, model validation, and technology readiness.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walraven, Jeremy Allen; Blecke, Jill; Baker, Michael Sean; Clemens, Rebecca C.; Mitchell, John Anthony; Brake, Matthew Robert; Epp, David S.; Wittwer, Jonathan W.

2008-10-01

This report summarizes the functional, model validation, and technology readiness testing of the Sandia MEMS Passive Shock Sensor in FY08. Functional testing of a large number of revision 4 parts showed robust and consistent performance. Model validation testing helped tune the models to match data well and identified several areas for future investigation related to high frequency sensitivity and thermal effects. Finally, technology readiness testing demonstrated the integrated elements of the sensor under realistic environments.

Inferring Instantaneous, Multivariate and Nonlinear Sensitivities for the Analysis of Feedback Processes in a Dynamical System: Lorenz Model Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Aires, Filipe; Rossow, William B.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A new approach is presented for the analysis of feedback processes in a nonlinear dynamical system by observing its variations. The new methodology consists of statistical estimates of the sensitivities between all pairs of variables in the system based on a neural network modeling of the dynamical system. The model can then be used to estimate the instantaneous, multivariate and nonlinear sensitivities, which are shown to be essential for the analysis of the feedbacks processes involved in the dynamical system. The method is described and tested on synthetic data from the low-order Lorenz circulation model where the correct sensitivities can be evaluated analytically.

[Test and programme sensitivities of screening for colorectal cancer in Reggio Emilia].

Science.gov (United States)

Campari, Cinzia; Sassatelli, Romano; Paterlini, Luisa; Camellini, Lorenzo; Menozzi, Patrizia; Cattani, Antonella

2011-01-01

to estimate the sensitivity of the immunochemical test for faecal occult blood (FOBT) and the sensitivity of the colorectal tumour screening programme in the province of Reggio Emilia. retrospective cohort study, including a sample of 80,357 people of both genders, aged 50-69, who underwent FOBT, during the first round of the screening programme in the province of Reggio Emilia, from April 2005 to December 2007. incidence of interval cancer. The proportional incidence method was used to estimate the sensitivity of FOBT and of the screening programme. Data were stratified according to gender, age and year of interval. the overall sensitivity of FOBT was 73.2% (95%IC 63.8-80.7). The sensitivity of FOBT was lower in females (70.5% vs 75.1%), higher in the 50-59 age group (78.6% vs 70.2%) and higher in the colon than rectum (75.1% vs 68.9%). The test had a significantly higher sensitivity in the 1st year of interval than in the 2nd (84.4% vs 60.5%; RR=0.39, 95%IC 0.22-0.70), a difference which was confirmed, also when data were stratified according to gender. The overall sensitivity of the programme is 70.9% (95%IC 61.5-78.5). No statistically significant differences were shown, if data were stratified according to gender, age or site. Again the sensitivity in the 1st year was significantly higher than in the 2nd year of interval (83.2% vs 57.0%; RR=0.41, 95%IC 0.24-0.69). Overall our data confirmed the findings of similar Italian studies, despite subgroup analysis showed some differences in sensitivity in our study.

ABSTRACT: CONTAMINANT TRAVEL TIMES FROM THE NEVADA TEST SITE TO YUCCA MOUNTAIN: SENSITIVITY TO POROSITY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karl F. Pohlmann; Jianting Zhu; Jenny B. Chapman; Charles E. Russell; Rosemary W. H. Carroll; David S. Shafer

2008-01-01

Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, has been proposed by the U.S. Department of Energy as a geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. In this study, we investigate the potential for groundwater advective pathways from underground nuclear testing areas on the Nevada Test Site (NTS) to the YM area by estimating the timeframe for advective travel and its uncertainty resulting from porosity value uncertainty for hydrogeologic units (HGUs) in the region. We perform sensitivity analysis to determine the most influential HGUs on advective radionuclide travel times from the NTS to the YM area. Groundwater pathways and advective travel times are obtained using the particle tracking package MODPATH and flow results from the Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS) model by the U.S. Geological Survey. Values and uncertainties of HGU porosities are quantified through evaluation of existing site porosity data and expert professional judgment and are incorporated through Monte Carlo simulations to estimate mean travel times and uncertainties. We base our simulations on two steady state flow scenarios for the purpose of long term prediction and monitoring. The first represents pre-pumping conditions prior to groundwater development in the area in 1912 (the initial stress period of the DVRFS model). The second simulates 1998 pumping (assuming steady state conditions resulting from pumping in the last stress period of the DVRFS model). Considering underground tests in a clustered region around Pahute Mesa on the NTS as initial particle positions, we track these particles forward using MODPATH to identify hydraulically downgradient groundwater discharge zones and to determine which flowpaths will intercept the YM area. Out of the 71 tests in the saturated zone, flowpaths of 23 intercept the YM area under the pre-pumping scenario. For the 1998 pumping scenario, flowpaths from 55 of the 71 tests intercept the YM area. The results illustrate that mean

A Culture-Sensitive Agent in Kirman's Ant Model

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shu-Heng; Liou, Wen-Ching; Chen, Ting-Yu

The global financial crisis brought a serious collapse involving a "systemic" meltdown. Internet technology and globalization have increased the chances for interaction between countries and people. The global economy has become more complex than ever before. Mark Buchanan [12] indicated that agent-based computer models will prevent another financial crisis and has been particularly influential in contributing insights. There are two reasons why culture-sensitive agent on the financial market has become so important. Therefore, the aim of this article is to establish a culture-sensitive agent and forecast the process of change regarding herding behavior in the financial market. We based our study on the Kirman's Ant Model[4,5] and Hofstede's Natational Culture[11] to establish our culture-sensitive agent based model. Kirman's Ant Model is quite famous and describes financial market herding behavior from the expectations of the future of financial investors. Hofstede's cultural consequence used the staff of IBM in 72 different countries to understand the cultural difference. As a result, this paper focuses on one of the five dimensions of culture from Hofstede: individualism versus collectivism and creates a culture-sensitive agent and predicts the process of change regarding herding behavior in the financial market. To conclude, this study will be of importance in explaining the herding behavior with cultural factors, as well as in providing researchers with a clearer understanding of how herding beliefs of people about different cultures relate to their finance market strategies.

The behavior of the likelihood ratio test for testing missingness

OpenAIRE

Hens, Niel; Aerts, Marc; Molenberghs, Geert; Thijs, Herbert

2003-01-01

To asses the sensitivity of conclusions to model choices in the context of selection models for non-random dropout, one can oppose the different missing mechanisms to each other; e.g. by the likelihood ratio tests. The finite sample behavior of the null distribution and the power of the likelihood ratio test is studied under a variety of missingness mechanisms. missing data; sensitivity analysis; likelihood ratio test; missing mechanisms

Study on Identification of Material Model Parameters from Compact Tension Test on Concrete Specimens

Science.gov (United States)

Hokes, Filip; Kral, Petr; Husek, Martin; Kala, Jiri

2017-10-01

Identification of a concrete material model parameters using optimization is based on a calculation of a difference between experimentally measured and numerically obtained data. Measure of the difference can be formulated via root mean squared error that is often used for determination of accuracy of a mathematical model in the field of meteorology or demography. The quality of the identified parameters is, however, determined not only by right choice of an objective function but also by the source experimental data. One of the possible way is to use load-displacement curves from three-point bending tests that were performed on concrete specimens. This option shows the significance of modulus of elasticity, tensile strength and specific fracture energy. Another possible option is to use experimental data from compact tension test. It is clear that the response in the second type of test is also dependent on the above mentioned material parameters. The question is whether the parameters identified within three-point bending test and within compact tension test will reach the same values. The presented article brings the numerical study of inverse identification of material model parameters from experimental data measured during compact tension tests. The article also presents utilization of the modified sensitivity analysis that calculates the sensitivity of the material model parameters for different parts of loading curve. The main goal of the article is to describe the process of inverse identification of parameters for plasticity-based material model of concrete and prepare data for future comparison with identified values of the material model parameters from different type of fracture tests.

Testing quark mixing in minimal left–right symmetric models with b-tags at the LHC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fowlie, Andrew; Marzola, Luca

2014-01-01

Motivated by a hint in a CMS search for right-handed W-bosons in eejj final states, we propose an experimental test of quark-mixing matrices in a general left–right symmetric model, based on counting the numbers of b-tags from right-handed W-boson hadronic decays. We find that, with our test, differences between left- and right-handed quark-mixing matrices could be detected at the LHC with √(s)=14 TeV. With an integrated luminosity of about 20/fb, our test is sensitive to right-handed quark-mixing angles as small as about 30° and with 3000/fb, our test's sensitivity improves to right-handed mixing angles as small as about 7.5°. Our test's sensitivity might be further enhanced by tuning b-tagging efficiency against purity

Modelling of intermittent microwave convective drying: parameter sensitivity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhang Zhijun

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The reliability of the predictions of a mathematical model is a prerequisite to its utilization. A multiphase porous media model of intermittent microwave convective drying is developed based on the literature. The model considers the liquid water, gas and solid matrix inside of food. The model is simulated by COMSOL software. Its sensitivity parameter is analysed by changing the parameter values by ±20%, with the exception of several parameters. The sensitivity analysis of the process of the microwave power level shows that each parameter: ambient temperature, effective gas diffusivity, and evaporation rate constant, has significant effects on the process. However, the surface mass, heat transfer coefficient, relative and intrinsic permeability of the gas, and capillary diffusivity of water do not have a considerable effect. The evaporation rate constant has minimal parameter sensitivity with a ±20% value change, until it is changed 10-fold. In all results, the temperature and vapour pressure curves show the same trends as the moisture content curve. However, the water saturation at the medium surface and in the centre show different results. Vapour transfer is the major mass transfer phenomenon that affects the drying process.

Kinetics of steel slag leaching: Batch tests and modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Windt, Laurent; Chaurand, Perrine; Rose, Jerome

2011-01-01

Reusing steel slag as an aggregate for road construction requires to characterize the leaching kinetics and metal releases. In this study, basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel slag were subjected to batch leaching tests at liquid to solid ratios (L/S) of 10 and 100 over 30 days; the leachate chemistry being regularly sampled in time. A geochemical model of the steel slag is developed and validated from experimental data, particularly the evolution with leaching of mineralogical composition of the slag and trace element speciation. Kinetics is necessary for modeling the primary phase leaching, whereas a simple thermodynamic equilibrium approach can be used for secondary phase precipitation. The proposed model simulates the kinetically-controlled dissolution (hydrolysis) of primary phases, the precipitation of secondary phases (C-S-H, hydroxide and spinel), the pH and redox conditions, and the progressive release of major elements as well as the metals Cr and V. Modeling indicates that the dilution effect of the L/S ratio is often coupled to solubility-controlled processes, which are sensitive to both the pH and the redox potential. A sensitivity analysis of kinetic uncertainties on the modeling of element releases is performed.

Dosimetry of irradiation models. The 96-well clonogenic assay for testing radiosensitivity of cell lines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kulmala, J.; Rantanen, V.; Turku Univ.; Pekkola-Heino, K.; Turku Univ.; Tuominen, J.; Grenman, R.; Turku Univ.

1995-01-01

Radiation experiments with cells in single cell suspension in test tubes and on 96-well plates were carried out and compared. The cells originated from cell lines established from carcinomas of the floor of the mouth and from endometrical carcinoma. Two irradiation models were constructed. Both models allowed the absorbed doses to the cells to be administered with a high accuracy in both experimental settings (better than 5.0%). These irradiation models were compared on cancer cell lines with dissimilar inherent radiation sensitivity and histologic type (UM-SCC-1 resistant, UM-SCC-14A sensitive, and UT-EC-2B highly sensitive); various radiation doses were used. The fractions of surviving cells as a function of radiation dose were compared: there was no significant difference between cells irradiated in test tubes and cells irradiated in 96-well plates. Thus, if the absorbed doses in cells suspended in a tube and in a plate were the same, the survival was similar regardless of the type of irradiation model. (orig.)

The sensitivity of the ESA DELTA model

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, C.; Walker, R.; Klinkrad, H.

Long-term debris environment models play a vital role in furthering our understanding of the future debris environment, and in aiding the determination of a strategy to preserve the Earth orbital environment for future use. By their very nature these models have to make certain assumptions to enable informative future projections to be made. Examples of these assumptions include the projection of future traffic, including launch and explosion rates, and the methodology used to simulate break-up events. To ensure a sound basis for future projections, and consequently for assessing the effectiveness of various mitigation measures, it is essential that the sensitivity of these models to variations in key assumptions is examined. The DELTA (Debris Environment Long Term Analysis) model, developed by QinetiQ for the European Space Agency, allows the future projection of the debris environment throughout Earth orbit. Extensive analyses with this model have been performed under the auspices of the ESA Space Debris Mitigation Handbook and following the recent upgrade of the model to DELTA 3.0. This paper draws on these analyses to present the sensitivity of the DELTA model to changes in key model parameters and assumptions. Specifically the paper will address the variation in future traffic rates, including the deployment of satellite constellations, and the variation in the break-up model and criteria used to simulate future explosion and collision events.

Sensitivity of a complex urban air quality model to input data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seigneur, C.; Tesche, T.W.; Roth, P.M.; Reid, L.E.

1981-01-01

In recent years, urban-scale photochemical simulation models have been developed that are of practical value for predicting air quality and analyzing the impacts of alternative emission control strategies. Although the performance of some urban-scale models appears to be acceptable, the demanding data requirements of such models have prompted concern about the costs of data acquistion, which might be high enough to preclude use of photochemical models for many urban areas. To explore this issue, sensitivity studies with the Systems Applications, Inc. (SAI) Airshed Model, a grid-based time-dependent photochemical dispersion model, have been carried out for the Los Angeles basin. Reductions in the amount and quality of meteorological, air quality and emission data, as well as modifications of the model gridded structure, have been analyzed. This paper presents and interprets the results of 22 sensitivity studies. A sensitivity-uncertainty index is defined to rank input data needs for an urban photochemical model. The index takes into account the sensitivity of model predictions to the amount of input data, the costs of data acquistion, and the uncertainties in the air quality model input variables. The results of these sensitivity studies are considered in light of the limitations of specific attributes of the Los Angeles basin and of the modeling conditions (e.g., choice of wind model, length of simulation time). The extent to which the results may be applied to other urban areas also is discussed

A three-dimensional cohesive sediment transport model with data assimilation: Model development, sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Daosheng; Cao, Anzhou; Zhang, Jicai; Fan, Daidu; Liu, Yongzhi; Zhang, Yue

2018-06-01

Based on the theory of inverse problems, a three-dimensional sigma-coordinate cohesive sediment transport model with the adjoint data assimilation is developed. In this model, the physical processes of cohesive sediment transport, including deposition, erosion and advection-diffusion, are parameterized by corresponding model parameters. These parameters are usually poorly known and have traditionally been assigned empirically. By assimilating observations into the model, the model parameters can be estimated using the adjoint method; meanwhile, the data misfit between model results and observations can be decreased. The model developed in this work contains numerous parameters; therefore, it is necessary to investigate the parameter sensitivity of the model, which is assessed by calculating a relative sensitivity function and the gradient of the cost function with respect to each parameter. The results of parameter sensitivity analysis indicate that the model is sensitive to the initial conditions, inflow open boundary conditions, suspended sediment settling velocity and resuspension rate, while the model is insensitive to horizontal and vertical diffusivity coefficients. A detailed explanation of the pattern of sensitivity analysis is also given. In ideal twin experiments, constant parameters are estimated by assimilating 'pseudo' observations. The results show that the sensitive parameters are estimated more easily than the insensitive parameters. The conclusions of this work can provide guidance for the practical applications of this model to simulate sediment transport in the study area.

The application of sensitivity analysis to models of large scale physiological systems

Science.gov (United States)

Leonard, J. I.

1974-01-01

A survey of the literature of sensitivity analysis as it applies to biological systems is reported as well as a brief development of sensitivity theory. A simple population model and a more complex thermoregulatory model illustrate the investigatory techniques and interpretation of parameter sensitivity analysis. The role of sensitivity analysis in validating and verifying models, and in identifying relative parameter influence in estimating errors in model behavior due to uncertainty in input data is presented. This analysis is valuable to the simulationist and the experimentalist in allocating resources for data collection. A method for reducing highly complex, nonlinear models to simple linear algebraic models that could be useful for making rapid, first order calculations of system behavior is presented.

Modelling pesticides volatilisation in greenhouses: Sensitivity analysis of a modified PEARL model.

Science.gov (United States)

Houbraken, Michael; Doan Ngoc, Kim; van den Berg, Frederik; Spanoghe, Pieter

2017-12-01

The application of the existing PEARL model was extended to include estimations of the concentration of crop protection products in greenhouse (indoor) air due to volatilisation from the plant surface. The model was modified to include the processes of ventilation of the greenhouse air to the outside atmosphere and transformation in the air. A sensitivity analysis of the model was performed by varying selected input parameters on a one-by-one basis and comparing the model outputs with the outputs of the reference scenarios. The sensitivity analysis indicates that - in addition to vapour pressure - the model had the highest ratio of variation for the rate ventilation rate and thickness of the boundary layer on the day of application. On the days after application, competing processes, degradation and uptake in the plant, becomes more important. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of UPTF downcomer tests with the Cathare multi-dimensional model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dor, I.

1993-01-01

This paper presents the analysis and the modelling - with the system code CATHARE - of UPTF downcomer refill tests simulating the refill phase of a large break LOCA. The modelling approach in a system code is discussed. First the reasons why in this particular case available flooding correlations are difficult to use in system code are developed. Then the use of a 1 - D modelling of the downcomer with specific closure relations for the annular geometry is examined. But UPTF 1:1 scale tests and CREARE reduced scale tests point out some weaknesses of this modelling due to the particular multi-dimensional nature of the flow in the upper part of the downcomer. Thus a 2-D model is elaborated and implemented into CATHARE version 1.3e code. The assessment of the model is based on UPTF 1:1 scale tests (saturated and subcooled conditions). Discretization and meshing influence are investigated. On the basis of saturated tests a new discretization is proposed for different terms of the momentum balance equations (interfacial friction, momentum transport terms) which results in a significant improvement. Sensitivity studies performed on subcooled tests show that the water downflow predictions are improved by increasing the condensation in the downcomer. (author). 8 figs., 5 tabs., 9 refs., 2 appendix

Gender differences in emotion perception and self-reported emotional intelligence: A test of the emotion sensitivity hypothesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Agneta H; Kret, Mariska E; Broekens, Joost

2018-01-01

Previous meta-analyses and reviews on gender differences in emotion recognition have shown a small to moderate female advantage. However, inconsistent evidence from recent studies has raised questions regarding the implications of different methodologies, stimuli, and samples. In the present research based on a community sample of more than 5000 participants, we tested the emotional sensitivity hypothesis, stating that women are more sensitive to perceive subtle, i.e. low intense or ambiguous, emotion cues. In addition, we included a self-report emotional intelligence test in order to examine any discrepancy between self-perceptions and actual performance for both men and women. We used a wide range of stimuli and models, displaying six different emotions at two different intensity levels. In order to better tap sensitivity for subtle emotion cues, we did not use a forced choice format, but rather intensity measures of different emotions. We found no support for the emotional sensitivity account, as both genders rated the target emotions as similarly intense at both levels of stimulus intensity. Men, however, more strongly perceived non-target emotions to be present than women. In addition, we also found that the lower scores of men in self-reported EI was not related to their actual perception of target emotions, but it was to the perception of non-target emotions.

Gender differences in emotion perception and self-reported emotional intelligence: A test of the emotion sensitivity hypothesis

Science.gov (United States)

Kret, Mariska E.; Broekens, Joost

2018-01-01

Previous meta-analyses and reviews on gender differences in emotion recognition have shown a small to moderate female advantage. However, inconsistent evidence from recent studies has raised questions regarding the implications of different methodologies, stimuli, and samples. In the present research based on a community sample of more than 5000 participants, we tested the emotional sensitivity hypothesis, stating that women are more sensitive to perceive subtle, i.e. low intense or ambiguous, emotion cues. In addition, we included a self-report emotional intelligence test in order to examine any discrepancy between self-perceptions and actual performance for both men and women. We used a wide range of stimuli and models, displaying six different emotions at two different intensity levels. In order to better tap sensitivity for subtle emotion cues, we did not use a forced choice format, but rather intensity measures of different emotions. We found no support for the emotional sensitivity account, as both genders rated the target emotions as similarly intense at both levels of stimulus intensity. Men, however, more strongly perceived non-target emotions to be present than women. In addition, we also found that the lower scores of men in self-reported EI was not related to their actual perception of target emotions, but it was to the perception of non-target emotions. PMID:29370198

Defining and detecting structural sensitivity in biological models: developing a new framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Adamson, M W; Morozov, A Yu

2014-12-01

When we construct mathematical models to represent biological systems, there is always uncertainty with regards to the model specification--whether with respect to the parameters or to the formulation of model functions. Sometimes choosing two different functions with close shapes in a model can result in substantially different model predictions: a phenomenon known in the literature as structural sensitivity, which is a significant obstacle to improving the predictive power of biological models. In this paper, we revisit the general definition of structural sensitivity, compare several more specific definitions and discuss their usefulness for the construction and analysis of biological models. Then we propose a general approach to reveal structural sensitivity with regards to certain system properties, which considers infinite-dimensional neighbourhoods of the model functions: a far more powerful technique than the conventional approach of varying parameters for a fixed functional form. In particular, we suggest a rigorous method to unearth sensitivity with respect to the local stability of systems' equilibrium points. We present a method for specifying the neighbourhood of a general unknown function with [Formula: see text] inflection points in terms of a finite number of local function properties, and provide a rigorous proof of its completeness. Using this powerful result, we implement our method to explore sensitivity in several well-known multicomponent ecological models and demonstrate the existence of structural sensitivity in these models. Finally, we argue that structural sensitivity is an important intrinsic property of biological models, and a direct consequence of the complexity of the underlying real systems.

Techniques for sensitivity analysis of SYVAC results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prust, J.O.

1985-05-01

Sensitivity analysis techniques may be required to examine the sensitivity of SYVAC model predictions to the input parameter values, the subjective probability distributions assigned to the input parameters and to the relationship between dose and the probability of fatal cancers plus serious hereditary disease in the first two generations of offspring of a member of the critical group. This report mainly considers techniques for determining the sensitivity of dose and risk to the variable input parameters. The performance of a sensitivity analysis technique may be improved by decomposing the model and data into subsets for analysis, making use of existing information on sensitivity and concentrating sampling in regions the parameter space that generates high doses or risks. A number of sensitivity analysis techniques are reviewed for their application to the SYVAC model including four techniques tested in an earlier study by CAP Scientific for the SYVAC project. This report recommends the development now of a method for evaluating the derivative of dose and parameter value and extending the Kruskal-Wallis technique to test for interactions between parameters. It is also recommended that the sensitivity of the output of each sub-model of SYVAC to input parameter values should be examined. (author)

Stereo chromatic contrast sensitivity model to blue-yellow gratings.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Jiachen; Lin, Yancong; Liu, Yun

2016-03-07

As a fundamental metric of human visual system (HVS), contrast sensitivity function (CSF) is typically measured by sinusoidal gratings at the detection of thresholds for psychophysically defined cardinal channels: luminance, red-green, and blue-yellow. Chromatic CSF, which is a quick and valid index to measure human visual performance and various retinal diseases in two-dimensional (2D) space, can not be directly applied into the measurement of human stereo visual performance. And no existing perception model considers the influence of chromatic CSF of inclined planes on depth perception in three-dimensional (3D) space. The main aim of this research is to extend traditional chromatic contrast sensitivity characteristics to 3D space and build a model applicable in 3D space, for example, strengthening stereo quality of 3D images. This research also attempts to build a vision model or method to check human visual characteristics of stereo blindness. In this paper, CRT screen was clockwise and anti-clockwise rotated respectively to form the inclined planes. Four inclined planes were selected to investigate human chromatic vision in 3D space and contrast threshold of each inclined plane was measured with 18 observers. Stimuli were isoluminant blue-yellow sinusoidal gratings. Horizontal spatial frequencies ranged from 0.05 to 5 c/d. Contrast sensitivity was calculated as the inverse function of the pooled cone contrast threshold. According to the relationship between spatial frequency of inclined plane and horizontal spatial frequency, the chromatic contrast sensitivity characteristics in 3D space have been modeled based on the experimental data. The results show that the proposed model can well predicted human chromatic contrast sensitivity characteristics in 3D space.

Sensitive analysis and modifications to reflood-related constitutive models of RELAP5

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Dong; Liu Xiaojing; Yang Yanhua

2014-01-01

Previous system code calculation reveals that the cladding temperature is underestimated and quench front appears too early during reflood process. To find out the parameters shows important effect on the results, sensitive analysis is performed on parameters of constitutive physical models. Based on the phenomenological and theoretical analysis, four parameters are selected: wall to vapor film boiling heat transfer coefficient, wall to liquid film boiling heat transfer coefficient, dry wall interfacial friction coefficient and minimum droplet diameter. In order to improve the reflood simulation ability of RELAP5 code, the film boiling heat transfer model and dry wall interfacial friction model which are corresponding models of those influential parameters are studied. Modifications have been made and installed into RELAP5 code. Six tests of FEBA are simulated by RELAP5 to study the predictability of reflood-related physical models. A dispersed flow film boiling heat transfer (DFFB) model is applied when void fraction is above 0.9. And a factor is multiplied to the post-CHF drag coefficient to fit the experiment better. Finally, the six FEBA tests are calculated again so as to assess the modifications. Better results are obtained which prove the advantage of the modified models. (author)

Validation of Clinical Testing for Warfarin Sensitivity

Science.gov (United States)

Langley, Michael R.; Booker, Jessica K.; Evans, James P.; McLeod, Howard L.; Weck, Karen E.

2009-01-01

Responses to warfarin (Coumadin) anticoagulation therapy are affected by genetic variability in both the CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genes. Validation of pharmacogenetic testing for warfarin responses includes demonstration of analytical validity of testing platforms and of the clinical validity of testing. We compared four platforms for determining the relevant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in both CYP2C9 and VKORC1 that are associated with warfarin sensitivity (Third Wave Invader Plus, ParagonDx/Cepheid Smart Cycler, Idaho Technology LightCycler, and AutoGenomics Infiniti). Each method was examined for accuracy, cost, and turnaround time. All genotyping methods demonstrated greater than 95% accuracy for identifying the relevant SNPs (CYP2C9 *2 and *3; VKORC1 −1639 or 1173). The ParagonDx and Idaho Technology assays had the shortest turnaround and hands-on times. The Third Wave assay was readily scalable to higher test volumes but had the longest hands-on time. The AutoGenomics assay interrogated the largest number of SNPs but had the longest turnaround time. Four published warfarin-dosing algorithms (Washington University, UCSF, Louisville, and Newcastle) were compared for accuracy for predicting warfarin dose in a retrospective analysis of a local patient population on long-term, stable warfarin therapy. The predicted doses from both the Washington University and UCSF algorithms demonstrated the best correlation with actual warfarin doses. PMID:19324988

Sensitivity of subject-specific models to Hill muscle-tendon model parameters in simulations of gait.

Science.gov (United States)

Carbone, V; van der Krogt, M M; Koopman, H F J M; Verdonschot, N

2016-06-14

Subject-specific musculoskeletal (MS) models of the lower extremity are essential for applications such as predicting the effects of orthopedic surgery. We performed an extensive sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of potential errors in Hill muscle-tendon (MT) model parameters for each of the 56 MT parts contained in a state-of-the-art MS model. We used two metrics, namely a Local Sensitivity Index (LSI) and an Overall Sensitivity Index (OSI), to distinguish the effect of the perturbation on the predicted force produced by the perturbed MT parts and by all the remaining MT parts, respectively, during a simulated gait cycle. Results indicated that sensitivity of the model depended on the specific role of each MT part during gait, and not merely on its size and length. Tendon slack length was the most sensitive parameter, followed by maximal isometric muscle force and optimal muscle fiber length, while nominal pennation angle showed very low sensitivity. The highest sensitivity values were found for the MT parts that act as prime movers of gait (Soleus: average OSI=5.27%, Rectus Femoris: average OSI=4.47%, Gastrocnemius: average OSI=3.77%, Vastus Lateralis: average OSI=1.36%, Biceps Femoris Caput Longum: average OSI=1.06%) and hip stabilizers (Gluteus Medius: average OSI=3.10%, Obturator Internus: average OSI=1.96%, Gluteus Minimus: average OSI=1.40%, Piriformis: average OSI=0.98%), followed by the Peroneal muscles (average OSI=2.20%) and Tibialis Anterior (average OSI=1.78%) some of which were not included in previous sensitivity studies. Finally, the proposed priority list provides quantitative information to indicate which MT parts and which MT parameters should be estimated most accurately to create detailed and reliable subject-specific MS models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Standard-Model Extension and Gravitational Tests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jay D. Tasson

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The Standard-Model Extension (SME provides a comprehensive effective field-theory framework for the study of CPT and Lorentz symmetry. This work reviews the structure and philosophy of the SME and provides some intuitive examples of symmetry violation. The results of recent gravitational tests performed within the SME are summarized including analysis of results from the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO, sensitivities achieved in short-range gravity experiments, constraints from cosmic-ray data, and results achieved by studying planetary ephemerids. Some proposals and ongoing efforts will also be considered including gravimeter tests, tests of the Weak Equivalence Principle, and antimatter experiments. Our review of the above topics is augmented by several original extensions of the relevant work. We present new examples of symmetry violation in the SME and use the cosmic-ray analysis to place first-ever constraints on 81 additional operators.

Is Convection Sensitive to Model Vertical Resolution and Why?

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, S.; Lin, W.; Zhang, G. J.

2017-12-01

Model sensitivity to horizontal resolutions has been studied extensively, whereas model sensitivity to vertical resolution is much less explored. In this study, we use the US Department of Energy (DOE)'s Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) atmosphere model to examine the sensitivity of clouds and precipitation to the increase of vertical resolution of the model. We attempt to understand what results in the behavior change (if any) of convective processes represented by the unified shallow and turbulent scheme named CLUBB (Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals) and the Zhang-McFarlane deep convection scheme in ACME. A short-term hindcast approach is used to isolate parameterization issues from the large-scale circulation. The analysis emphasizes on how the change of vertical resolution could affect precipitation partitioning between convective- and grid-scale as well as the vertical profiles of convection-related quantities such as temperature, humidity, clouds, convective heating and drying, and entrainment and detrainment. The goal is to provide physical insight into potential issues with model convective processes associated with the increase of model vertical resolution. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Comparison of the sensitivity of typhi dot test with blood culture in typhoid

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rizvi, Q [Hamdard College of Medicine, Karachi (Pakistan). Dept. of Pharmacology

2006-10-15

To evaluate the sensitivity of Typhi Dot test in comparison to Blood Culture for the diagnosis of Typhoid Fever in our setup. Fifty patients who fulfilled the clinical criteria of having Typhoid Fever. The data of all the patients was documented, and they were submitted to the Typhi Dot and Blood Culture tests, apart from other routine investigations. Out of the total 50 patients, 47(94%) had their Blood Culture positive for Typhoid bacillus, while in 49 (98%) the Typhi Dot test was positive. Two patients which were found positive on Typhi dot test, gave negative results on Blood Culture. One patient with the signs and symptoms of Typhoid Fever was found neither positive on Typhi Dot test nor upon Blood Culture. There was no significant difference between the results of Blood Culture and Typhi Dot test in the diagnosis of Typhoid Fever. However, Typhi Dot has the advantages of being less expensive and quicker in giving results with excellent sensitivity. (author)

Comparison of the sensitivity of typhi dot test with blood culture in typhoid

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rizvi, Q.

2006-01-01

To evaluate the sensitivity of Typhi Dot test in comparison to Blood Culture for the diagnosis of Typhoid Fever in our setup. Fifty patients who fulfilled the clinical criteria of having Typhoid Fever. The data of all the patients was documented, and they were submitted to the Typhi Dot and Blood Culture tests, apart from other routine investigations. Out of the total 50 patients, 47(94%) had their Blood Culture positive for Typhoid bacillus, while in 49 (98%) the Typhi Dot test was positive. Two patients which were found positive on Typhi dot test, gave negative results on Blood Culture. One patient with the signs and symptoms of Typhoid Fever was found neither positive on Typhi Dot test nor upon Blood Culture. There was no significant difference between the results of Blood Culture and Typhi Dot test in the diagnosis of Typhoid Fever. However, Typhi Dot has the advantages of being less expensive and quicker in giving results with excellent sensitivity. (author)

Sensitivity Analysis of the Integrated Medical Model for ISS Programs

Science.gov (United States)

Goodenow, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Arellano, J.; Boley, L.; Garcia, Y.; Saile, L.; Walton, M.; Kerstman, E.; Reyes, D.; Young, M.

2016-01-01

Sensitivity analysis estimates the relative contribution of the uncertainty in input values to the uncertainty of model outputs. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and Standardized Rank Regression Coefficient (SRRC) are methods of conducting sensitivity analysis on nonlinear simulation models like the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity using partial correlation of the ranks of the generated input values to each generated output value. The partial part is so named because adjustments are made for the linear effects of all the other input values in the calculation of correlation between a particular input and each output. In SRRC, standardized regression-based coefficients measure the sensitivity of each input, adjusted for all the other inputs, on each output. Because the relative ranking of each of the inputs and outputs is used, as opposed to the values themselves, both methods accommodate the nonlinear relationship of the underlying model. As part of the IMM v4.0 validation study, simulations are available that predict 33 person-missions on ISS and 111 person-missions on STS. These simulated data predictions feed the sensitivity analysis procedures. The inputs to the sensitivity procedures include the number occurrences of each of the one hundred IMM medical conditions generated over the simulations and the associated IMM outputs: total quality time lost (QTL), number of evacuations (EVAC), and number of loss of crew lives (LOCL). The IMM team will report the results of using PRCC and SRRC on IMM v4.0 predictions of the ISS and STS missions created as part of the external validation study. Tornado plots will assist in the visualization of the condition-related input sensitivities to each of the main outcomes. The outcomes of this sensitivity analysis will drive review focus by identifying conditions where changes in uncertainty could drive changes in overall model output uncertainty. These efforts are an integral

Cost-effective degradation test plan for a nonlinear random-coefficients model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Seong-Joon; Bae, Suk Joo

2013-01-01

The determination of requisite sample size and the inspection schedule considering both testing cost and accuracy has been an important issue in the degradation test. This paper proposes a cost-effective degradation test plan in the context of a nonlinear random-coefficients model, while meeting some precision constraints for failure-time distribution. We introduce a precision measure to quantify the information losses incurred by reducing testing resources. The precision measure is incorporated into time-varying cost functions to reflect real circumstances. We apply a hybrid genetic algorithm to general cost optimization problem with reasonable constraints on the level of testing precision in order to determine a cost-effective inspection scheme. The proposed method is applied to the degradation data of plasma display panels (PDPs) following a bi-exponential degradation model. Finally, sensitivity analysis via simulation is provided to evaluate the robustness of the proposed degradation test plan.

Assessing contaminant sensitivity of endangered and threatened aquatic species: Part III. Effluent toxicity tests

Science.gov (United States)

Dwyer, F.J.; Hardesty, D.K.; Henke, C.E.; Ingersoll, C.G.; Whites, D.W.; Augspurger, T.; Canfield, T.J.; Mount, D.R.; Mayer, F.L.

2005-01-01

Toxicity tests using standard effluent test procedures described by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency were conducted with Ceriodaphnia dubia, fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas), and seven threatened and endangered (listed) fish species from four families: (1) Acipenseridae: shortnose sturgeon (Acipenser brevirostrum); (2) Catostomidae; razorback sucker (Xyrauchen texanus); (3) Cyprinidae: bonytail chub (Gila elegans), Cape Fear shiner (Notropis mekistocholas) Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius), and spotfin chub (Cyprinella monacha); and (4) Poecillidae: Gila topminnow (Poeciliopsis occidentalis). We conducted 7-day survival and growth studies with embryo-larval fathead minnows and analogous exposures using the listed species. Survival and reproduction were also determined with C. dubia. Tests were conducted with carbaryl, ammonia-or a simulated effluent complex mixture of carbaryl, copper, 4-nonylphenol, pentachlorophenol and permethrin at equitoxic proportions. In addition, Cape Fear shiners and spotfin chub were tested using diazinon, copper, and chlorine. Toxicity tests were also conducted with field-collected effluents from domestic or industrial facilities. Bonytail chub and razorback suckers were tested with effluents collected in Arizona whereas effluent samples collected from North Carolina were tested with Cape Fear shiner, spotfin chub, and shortnose sturgeon. The fathead minnow 7-day effluent test was often a reliable estimator of toxic effects to the listed fishes. However, in 21 % of the tests, a listed species was more sensitive than fathead minnows. More sensitive species results varied by test so that usually no species was always more or less sensitive than fathead minnows. Only the Gila topminnow was consistently less sensitive than the fathead minnow. Listed fish species were protected 96% of the time when results for both fathead minnows and C. dubia were considered, thus reinforcing the value of standard whole

Earthquake likelihood model testing

Science.gov (United States)

Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Wiemer, S.; Jackson, D.D.; Rhoades, D.A.

2007-01-01

INTRODUCTIONThe Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) project aims to produce and evaluate alternate models of earthquake potential (probability per unit volume, magnitude, and time) for California. Based on differing assumptions, these models are produced to test the validity of their assumptions and to explore which models should be incorporated in seismic hazard and risk evaluation. Tests based on physical and geological criteria are useful but we focus on statistical methods using future earthquake catalog data only. We envision two evaluations: a test of consistency with observed data and a comparison of all pairs of models for relative consistency. Both tests are based on the likelihood method, and both are fully prospective (i.e., the models are not adjusted to fit the test data). To be tested, each model must assign a probability to any possible event within a specified region of space, time, and magnitude. For our tests the models must use a common format: earthquake rates in specified “bins” with location, magnitude, time, and focal mechanism limits.Seismology cannot yet deterministically predict individual earthquakes; however, it should seek the best possible models for forecasting earthquake occurrence. This paper describes the statistical rules of an experiment to examine and test earthquake forecasts. The primary purposes of the tests described below are to evaluate physical models for earthquakes, assure that source models used in seismic hazard and risk studies are consistent with earthquake data, and provide quantitative measures by which models can be assigned weights in a consensus model or be judged as suitable for particular regions.In this paper we develop a statistical method for testing earthquake likelihood models. A companion paper (Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger 2007, this issue) discusses the actual implementation of these tests in the framework of the RELM initiative.Statistical testing of hypotheses is a common task and a

Evaluation of sensitivity and specificity of bone marrow trephine biopsy tests in an Indian teaching hospital

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sima Chauhan

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Bone marrow aspiration (BMA and bone marrow biopsy (BMB is an indispensable diagnostic tool for evaluating haematological and non-haematological disorders and patient follow-up in present era. We have compared the advantages of trephine biopsy over bone marrow aspiration in these patients. Aim and objective: To evaluate sensitivity and specificity of trephine biopsy test for haematological and non haematological disorder patients in comparison to bone marrow aspiration test. Materials and method: In this 1 year prospective study (June 2014–May 2015, we evaluated the haematological and non-haematological disorder patients by BMA and BMB (aided with I.H.C. when ever needed. The sensitivity and specificity of the tests were calculated. Results: Among, final 504 hemotological/non haematological disorder patients, 416 cases were diagnosed (+ve in BMA test, where as it was 494 in BMB test and with chi2 test it was highly significant as p = 0.0001. It was concluded that True positive cases were 416, True negative were 9 cases, false negative 78 cases and false positive was in one case only. The sensitivity and specificity of bone marrow trephine biopsy test was 84% and 90% respectively. Conclusion: BMB (aided with I.H.C is a gold standard test for detecting different haematological and non hamatological disorders. In our study the sensitivity and specificity of BMB test was 84% and 90% respectively. When performed in association with BMA in the same sitting, significantly augments the chances of reaching a correct diagnosis. Keywords: Bone marrow trephine biopsy, Bone marrow aspiration, Sensitivity, Specificity

Acute and chronic sensitivity to copper of a promising ecotoxicological model species, the annual killifish Nothobranchius furzeri.

Science.gov (United States)

Philippe, Charlotte; Grégoir, Arnout F; Janssens, Lizanne; Pinceel, Tom; De Boeck, Gudrun; Brendonck, Luc

2017-10-01

Nothobranchius furzeri is a promising model for ecotoxicological research due to the species' short life cycle and the production of drought-resistant eggs. Although the species is an emerging vertebrate fish model for several fundamental as well as applied research domains, its potential for ecotoxicological research has not yet been tested. The aim of this study was to characterise the acute and chronic sensitivity of this species to copper as compared to other model organisms. Effects of both acute and chronic copper exposure were tested on survival, life history and physiological traits. We report a 24h-LC 50 of 53.93µg Cu/L, which is situated within the sensitivity range of other model species such as Brook Trout, Fathead Minnow and Rainbow Trout. Moreover, in the full life cycle exposure, we show that an exposure concentration of 10.27µg/L did not cause acute adverse effects (96h), but did cause mortality after prolonged exposure (3-4 weeks). Also chronic, sublethal effects were observed, such as a reduction in growth rate, delayed maturation and postponed reproduction. Based on our results, we define the NOEC at 6.68µg Cu/L, making N. furzeri more sensitive to copper as compared to Brook Trout and Fathead Minnow. We found stimulatory effects on peak fecundity at subinhibitory levels of copper concentrations (hormesis). Finally, we found indications for detoxifying and copper-excreting mechanisms, demonstrating the ability of the fish to cope with this essential metal, even when exposed to stressful amounts. The successful application of current ecotoxicological protocols on N. furzeri and its sensitivity range comparable to that of other model organisms forms the basis to exploit this species in further ecotoxicological practices. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An efficient computational method for global sensitivity analysis and its application to tree growth modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Qiong-Li; Cournède, Paul-Henry; Mathieu, Amélie

2012-01-01

Global sensitivity analysis has a key role to play in the design and parameterisation of functional–structural plant growth models which combine the description of plant structural development (organogenesis and geometry) and functional growth (biomass accumulation and allocation). We are particularly interested in this study in Sobol's method which decomposes the variance of the output of interest into terms due to individual parameters but also to interactions between parameters. Such information is crucial for systems with potentially high levels of non-linearity and interactions between processes, like plant growth. However, the computation of Sobol's indices relies on Monte Carlo sampling and re-sampling, whose costs can be very high, especially when model evaluation is also expensive, as for tree models. In this paper, we thus propose a new method to compute Sobol's indices inspired by Homma–Saltelli, which improves slightly their use of model evaluations, and then derive for this generic type of computational methods an estimator of the error estimation of sensitivity indices with respect to the sampling size. It allows the detailed control of the balance between accuracy and computing time. Numerical tests on a simple non-linear model are convincing and the method is finally applied to a functional–structural model of tree growth, GreenLab, whose particularity is the strong level of interaction between plant functioning and organogenesis. - Highlights: ► We study global sensitivity analysis in the context of functional–structural plant modelling. ► A new estimator based on Homma–Saltelli method is proposed to compute Sobol indices, based on a more balanced re-sampling strategy. ► The estimation accuracy of sensitivity indices for a class of Sobol's estimators can be controlled by error analysis. ► The proposed algorithm is implemented efficiently to compute Sobol indices for a complex tree growth model.

Global sensitivity analysis of DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated forest ecosystem model

Science.gov (United States)

Shiying Tian; Mohamed A. Youssef; Devendra M. Amatya; Eric D. Vance

2014-01-01

Global sensitivity analysis is a useful tool to understand process-based ecosystem models by identifying key parameters and processes controlling model predictions. This study reported a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated model for simulating water, carbon (C), and nitrogen (N) cycles and plant growth in lowland forests. The...

A Comparison of Procedures for Content-Sensitive Item Selection in Computerized Adaptive Tests.

Science.gov (United States)

Kingsbury, G. Gage; Zara, Anthony R.

1991-01-01

This simulation investigated two procedures that reduce differences between paper-and-pencil testing and computerized adaptive testing (CAT) by making CAT content sensitive. Results indicate that the price in terms of additional test items of using constrained CAT for content balancing is much smaller than that of using testlets. (SLD)

Sensitivity analysis of a modified energy model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suganthi, L.; Jagadeesan, T.R.

1997-01-01

Sensitivity analysis is carried out to validate model formulation. A modified model has been developed to predict the future energy requirement of coal, oil and electricity, considering price, income, technological and environmental factors. The impact and sensitivity of the independent variables on the dependent variable are analysed. The error distribution pattern in the modified model as compared to a conventional time series model indicated the absence of clusters. The residual plot of the modified model showed no distinct pattern of variation. The percentage variation of error in the conventional time series model for coal and oil ranges from -20% to +20%, while for electricity it ranges from -80% to +20%. However, in the case of the modified model the percentage variation in error is greatly reduced - for coal it ranges from -0.25% to +0.15%, for oil -0.6% to +0.6% and for electricity it ranges from -10% to +10%. The upper and lower limit consumption levels at 95% confidence is determined. The consumption at varying percentage changes in price and population are analysed. The gap between the modified model predictions at varying percentage changes in price and population over the years from 1990 to 2001 is found to be increasing. This is because of the increasing rate of energy consumption over the years and also the confidence level decreases as the projection is made far into the future. (author)

Sensitivity analysis of predictive models with an automated adjoint generator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pin, F.G.; Oblow, E.M.

1987-01-01

The adjoint method is a well established sensitivity analysis methodology that is particularly efficient in large-scale modeling problems. The coefficients of sensitivity of a given response with respect to every parameter involved in the modeling code can be calculated from the solution of a single adjoint run of the code. Sensitivity coefficients provide a quantitative measure of the importance of the model data in calculating the final results. The major drawback of the adjoint method is the requirement for calculations of very large numbers of partial derivatives to set up the adjoint equations of the model. ADGEN is a software system that has been designed to eliminate this drawback and automatically implement the adjoint formulation in computer codes. The ADGEN system will be described and its use for improving performance assessments and predictive simulations will be discussed. 8 refs., 1 fig

Short ensembles: an efficient method for discerning climate-relevant sensitivities in atmospheric general circulation models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Wan

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This paper explores the feasibility of an experimentation strategy for investigating sensitivities in fast components of atmospheric general circulation models. The basic idea is to replace the traditional serial-in-time long-term climate integrations by representative ensembles of shorter simulations. The key advantage of the proposed method lies in its efficiency: since fewer days of simulation are needed, the computational cost is less, and because individual realizations are independent and can be integrated simultaneously, the new dimension of parallelism can dramatically reduce the turnaround time in benchmark tests, sensitivities studies, and model tuning exercises. The strategy is not appropriate for exploring sensitivity of all model features, but it is very effective in many situations. Two examples are presented using the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5. In the first example, the method is used to characterize sensitivities of the simulated clouds to time-step length. Results show that 3-day ensembles of 20 to 50 members are sufficient to reproduce the main signals revealed by traditional 5-year simulations. A nudging technique is applied to an additional set of simulations to help understand the contribution of physics–dynamics interaction to the detected time-step sensitivity. In the second example, multiple empirical parameters related to cloud microphysics and aerosol life cycle are perturbed simultaneously in order to find out which parameters have the largest impact on the simulated global mean top-of-atmosphere radiation balance. It turns out that 12-member ensembles of 10-day simulations are able to reveal the same sensitivities as seen in 4-year simulations performed in a previous study. In both cases, the ensemble method reduces the total computational time by a factor of about 15, and the turnaround time by a factor of several hundred. The efficiency of the method makes it particularly useful for the development of

A hybrid model for combining case-control and cohort studies in systematic reviews of diagnostic tests

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yong; Liu, Yulun; Ning, Jing; Cormier, Janice; Chu, Haitao

2014-01-01

Systematic reviews of diagnostic tests often involve a mixture of case-control and cohort studies. The standard methods for evaluating diagnostic accuracy only focus on sensitivity and specificity and ignore the information on disease prevalence contained in cohort studies. Consequently, such methods cannot provide estimates of measures related to disease prevalence, such as population averaged or overall positive and negative predictive values, which reflect the clinical utility of a diagnostic test. In this paper, we propose a hybrid approach that jointly models the disease prevalence along with the diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity in cohort studies, and the sensitivity and specificity in case-control studies. In order to overcome the potential computational difficulties in the standard full likelihood inference of the proposed hybrid model, we propose an alternative inference procedure based on the composite likelihood. Such composite likelihood based inference does not suffer computational problems and maintains high relative efficiency. In addition, it is more robust to model mis-specifications compared to the standard full likelihood inference. We apply our approach to a review of the performance of contemporary diagnostic imaging modalities for detecting metastases in patients with melanoma. PMID:25897179

Sensitivity and specificity of parallel or serial serological testing for detection of canine Leishmania infection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mauro Maciel de Arruda

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In Brazil, human and canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL caused byLeishmania infantum has undergone urbanisation since 1980, constituting a public health problem, and serological tests are tools of choice for identifying infected dogs. Until recently, the Brazilian zoonoses control program recommended enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA and indirect immunofluorescence assays (IFA as the screening and confirmatory methods, respectively, for the detection of canine infection. The purpose of this study was to estimate the accuracy of ELISA and IFA in parallel or serial combinations. The reference standard comprised the results of direct visualisation of parasites in histological sections, immunohistochemical test, or isolation of the parasite in culture. Samples from 98 cases and 1,327 noncases were included. Individually, both tests presented sensitivity of 91.8% and 90.8%, and specificity of 83.4 and 53.4%, for the ELISA and IFA, respectively. When tests were used in parallel combination, sensitivity attained 99.2%, while specificity dropped to 44.8%. When used in serial combination (ELISA followed by IFA, decreased sensitivity (83.3% and increased specificity (92.5% were observed. Serial testing approach improved specificity with moderate loss in sensitivity. This strategy could partially fulfill the needs of public health and dog owners for a more accurate diagnosis of CVL.

Greenhouse gas network design using backward Lagrangian particle dispersion modelling – Part 2: Sensitivity analyses and South African test case

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Nickless, A

2014-05-01

Full Text Available observation of atmospheric CO(sub2) concentrations at fixed monitoring stations. The LPDM model, which can be used to derive the sensitivity matrix used in an inversion, was run for each potential site for the months of July (representative of the Southern...

Influence of the developer structure on the sensitivity to indication at the penetrant fluid test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Riess, N.; Stelling, H.A.

1982-01-01

The sensitivity to indication of a penetrant fluid test system depends essentially on the properties of the testing agents used - matched for the object conditions - and on appropriate application. Apart from influences of preliminary cleaning the properties of the testing agent system result from the properties of the individual components, i.e. the penetrant fluid, the intermediate cleaner and the developer, and from the interaction between the individual components. Concerted matching of the individual testing agents is required. Subsequently it is shown by means of theoretical considerations and exemplary experimental results what fundamental interrelations between a penetrant fluid contained in the fault and the developer may be expected. In the theoretical statements findings from a subject field completely alien to nondestructive testing, namely pedology, were applied to the problem at hand. With respect to water economy of the ground model concepts and estimations of the main parameter of influence - e.g. the capillary forces - are available. It was made an attempt to transfer them in modified form to the mechanisms of the developing process. (orig.) [de

Influence of the developer structure on the sensitivity to indication at the penetrant fluid test

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Riess, N; Stelling, H A

1982-04-01

The sensitivity to indication of a penetrant fluid test system depends essentially on the properties of the testing agents used - matched for the object conditions - and on appropriate application. Apart from influences of preliminary cleaning the properties of the testing agent system result from the properties of the individual components, i.e. the penetrant fluid, the intermediate cleaner and the developer, and from the interaction between the individual components. Concerted matching of the individual testing agents is required. Subsequently it is shown by means of theoretical considerations and exemplary experimental results what fundamental interrelations between a penetrant fluid contained in the fault and the developer may be expected. In the theoretical statements findings from a subject field completely alien to nondestructive testing, namely pedology, were applied to the problem at hand. With respect to water economy of the ground model concepts and estimations of the main parameter of influence - e.g. the capillary forces - are available. An attempt was made to transfer them in modified form to the mechanisms of the developing process.

Integrating non-animal test information into an adaptive testing strategy - skin sensitization proof of concept case.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaworska, Joanna; Harol, Artsiom; Kern, Petra S; Gerberick, G Frank

2011-01-01

There is an urgent need to develop data integration and testing strategy frameworks allowing interpretation of results from animal alternative test batteries. To this end, we developed a Bayesian Network Integrated Testing Strategy (BN ITS) with the goal to estimate skin sensitization hazard as a test case of previously developed concepts (Jaworska et al., 2010). The BN ITS combines in silico, in chemico, and in vitro data related to skin penetration, peptide reactivity, and dendritic cell activation, and guides testing strategy by Value of Information (VoI). The approach offers novel insights into testing strategies: there is no one best testing strategy, but the optimal sequence of tests depends on information at hand, and is chemical-specific. Thus, a single generic set of tests as a replacement strategy is unlikely to be most effective. BN ITS offers the possibility of evaluating the impact of generating additional data on the target information uncertainty reduction before testing is commenced.

BIOMOVS test scenario model comparison using BIOPATH

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grogan, H.A.; Van Dorp, F.

1986-07-01

This report presents the results of the irrigation test scenario, presented in the BIOMOVS intercomparison study, calculated by the computer code BIOPATH. This scenario defines a constant release of Tc-99 and Np-237 into groundwater that is used for irrigation. The system of compartments used to model the biosphere is based upon an area in northern Switzerland and is essentially the same as that used in Projekt Gewaehr to assess the radiological impact of a high level waste repository. Two separate irrigation methods are considered, namely ditch and overhead irrigation. Their influence on the resultant activities calculated in the groundwater, soil and different foodproducts, as a function of time, is evaluated. The sensitivity of the model to parameter variations is analysed which allows a deeper understanding of the model chain. These results are assessed subjectively in a first effort to realistically quantify the uncertainty associated with each calculated activity. (author)

A rapid, sensitive and reliable diagnostic test for scrub typhus in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhang Lijuan

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: To evaluate the performances for detection of IgM and IgG antibodies to Orientia. tsutsugamushi (Ot using a gold conjugate-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT. Materials and Methods: The RDT employing mixture recombinant 56-kDa proteins of O. tsutsugamushi and the mIFA assay was performed on 33 patients from Fujian and Yunnan province respectively and 94 positive sera (36 from Hainan province and 58 from Jiangsu province from convalescent stages of the patients with scrub typhus respectively and 82 negative sera from healthy farmers from Anhui province and Beijing City respectively in 2009. A comparison of the RDT and mIFA assay was performed by using the c2 test and the P level of ≤0.05 was considered to be significant. Results: Among these 94 positive sera from convalescent stages of the illness and 82 sera from control farmers, the specificity of RDT was 100% for both IgM and IgG tests. In 33 cases with scrub typhus, 5 cases were positively detected earlier by RDT than by mIFA for the IgM test, and 2 cases were positive for the IgG test. The sensitivities of RDT were 93.9% and 90.9% for IgM and IgG, respectively. Considering IgM and IgG together, the sensitivity was 100%. The geometric mean titre (GMT of IFA and the RDT assay in diluted sera from confirmed cases were 1:37 versus 1:113 respectively (P<0.001 for IgM test and 1:99 versus 1:279 respectively (P<0.016 for IgG. Conclusions: The RDT was more sensitive than the traditional IFA for the early diagnosis of scrub typhus and was particularly suitable for use in rural areas.

Large-Scale Transport Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis: Distributed Sources in Complex Hydrogeologic Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sig Drellack, Lance Prothro

2007-01-01

The Underground Test Area (UGTA) Project of the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office is in the process of assessing and developing regulatory decision options based on modeling predictions of contaminant transport from underground testing of nuclear weapons at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). The UGTA Project is attempting to develop an effective modeling strategy that addresses and quantifies multiple components of uncertainty including natural variability, parameter uncertainty, conceptual/model uncertainty, and decision uncertainty in translating model results into regulatory requirements. The modeling task presents multiple unique challenges to the hydrological sciences as a result of the complex fractured and faulted hydrostratigraphy, the distributed locations of sources, the suite of reactive and non-reactive radionuclides, and uncertainty in conceptual models. Characterization of the hydrogeologic system is difficult and expensive because of deep groundwater in the arid desert setting and the large spatial setting of the NTS. Therefore, conceptual model uncertainty is partially addressed through the development of multiple alternative conceptual models of the hydrostratigraphic framework and multiple alternative models of recharge and discharge. Uncertainty in boundary conditions is assessed through development of alternative groundwater fluxes through multiple simulations using the regional groundwater flow model. Calibration of alternative models to heads and measured or inferred fluxes has not proven to provide clear measures of model quality. Therefore, model screening by comparison to independently-derived natural geochemical mixing targets through cluster analysis has also been invoked to evaluate differences between alternative conceptual models. Advancing multiple alternative flow models, sensitivity of transport predictions to parameter uncertainty is assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. The

Global sensitivity analysis applied to drying models for one or a population of granules

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortier, Severine Therese F. C.; Gernaey, Krist; Thomas, De Beer

2014-01-01

The development of mechanistic models for pharmaceutical processes is of increasing importance due to a noticeable shift toward continuous production in the industry. Sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool during the model building process. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA), exploring sensitiv......The development of mechanistic models for pharmaceutical processes is of increasing importance due to a noticeable shift toward continuous production in the industry. Sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool during the model building process. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA), exploring...... sensitivity in a broad parameter space, is performed to detect the most sensitive factors in two models, that is, one for drying of a single granule and one for the drying of a population of granules [using population balance model (PBM)], which was extended by including the gas velocity as extra input...... compared to our earlier work. beta(2) was found to be the most important factor for the single particle model which is useful information when performing model calibration. For the PBM-model, the granule radius and gas temperature were found to be most sensitive. The former indicates that granulator...

Specification of a test problem for HYDROCOIN [Hydrologic Code Intercomparison] Level 3 Case 2: Sensitivity analysis for deep disposal in partially saturated, fractured tuff

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prindle, R.W.

1987-08-01

The international Hydrologic Code Intercomparison Project (HYDROCOIN) was formed to evaluate hydrogeologic models and computer codes and their use in performance assessment for high-level radioactive waste repositories. Three principal activities in the HYDROCOIN Project are Level 1, verification and benchmarking of hydrologic codes; Level 2, validation of hydrologic models; and Level 3, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of the models and codes. This report presents a test case defined for the HYDROCOIN Level 3 activity to explore the feasibility of applying various sensitivity-analysis methodologies to a highly nonlinear model of isothermal, partially saturated flow through fractured tuff, and to develop modeling approaches to implement the methodologies for sensitivity analysis. These analyses involve an idealized representation of a repository sited above the water table in a layered sequence of welded and nonwelded, fractured, volcanic tuffs. The analyses suggested here include one-dimensional, steady flow; one-dimensional, nonsteady flow; and two-dimensional, steady flow. Performance measures to be used to evaluate model sensitivities are also defined; the measures are related to regulatory criteria for containment of high-level radioactive waste. 14 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs

Use of genotoxicity information in the development of integrated testing strategies (ITS) for skin sensitization.

Science.gov (United States)

Mekenyan, Ovanes; Patlewicz, Grace; Dimitrova, Gergana; Kuseva, Chanita; Todorov, Milen; Stoeva, Stoyanka; Kotov, Stefan; Donner, E Maria

2010-10-18

Skin sensitization is an end point of concern for various legislation in the EU, including the seventh Amendment to the Cosmetics Directive and Registration Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH). Since animal testing is a last resort for REACH or banned (from 2013 onward) for the Cosmetics Directive, the use of intelligent/integrated testing strategies (ITS) as an efficient means of gathering necessary information from alternative sources (e.g., in vitro, (Q)SARs, etc.) is gaining widespread interest. Previous studies have explored correlations between mutagenicity data and skin sensitization data as a means of exploiting information from surrogate end points. The work here compares the underlying chemical mechanisms for mutagenicity and skin sensitization in an effort to evaluate the role mutagenicity information can play as a predictor of skin sensitization potential. The Tissue Metabolism Simulator (TIMES) hybrid expert system was used to compare chemical mechanisms of both end points since it houses a comprehensive set of established structure-activity relationships for both skin sensitization and mutagenicity. The evaluation demonstrated that there is a great deal of overlap between skin sensitization and mutagenicity structural alerts and their underlying chemical mechanisms. The similarities and differences in chemical mechanisms are discussed in light of available experimental data. A number of new alerts for mutagenicity were also postulated for inclusion into TIMES. The results presented show that mutagenicity information can provide useful insights on skin sensitization potential as part of an ITS and should be considered prior to any in vivo skin sensitization testing being initiated.

Using Structured Knowledge Representation for Context-Sensitive Probabilistic Modeling

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Sakhanenko, Nikita A; Luger, George F

2008-01-01

We propose a context-sensitive probabilistic modeling system (COSMOS) that reasons about a complex, dynamic environment through a series of applications of smaller, knowledge-focused models representing contextually relevant information...

Application of a path sensitizing method on automated generation of test specifications for control software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morimoto, Yuuichi; Fukuda, Mitsuko

1995-01-01

An automated generation method for test specifications has been developed for sequential control software in plant control equipment. Sequential control software can be represented as sequential circuits. The control software implemented in a control equipment is designed from these circuit diagrams. In logic tests of VLSI's, path sensitizing methods are widely used to generate test specifications. But the method generates test specifications at a single time only, and can not be directly applied to sequential control software. The basic idea of the proposed method is as follows. Specifications of each logic operator in the diagrams are defined in the software design process. Therefore, test specifications of each operator in the control software can be determined from these specifications, and validity of software can be judged by inspecting all of the operators in the logic circuit diagrams. Candidates for sensitized paths, on which test data for each operator propagates, can be generated by the path sensitizing method. To confirm feasibility of the method, it was experimentally applied to control software in digital control equipment. The program could generate test specifications exactly, and feasibility of the method was confirmed. (orig.) (3 refs., 7 figs.)

Strain rate sensitivity of the tensile strength of two silicon carbides: experimental evidence and micromechanical modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Erzar, Benjamin

2017-01-01

Ceramic materials are commonly used to design multi-layer armour systems thanks to their favourable physical and mechanical properties. However, during an impact event, fragmentation of the ceramic plate inevitably occurs due to its inherent brittleness under tensile loading. Consequently, an accurate model of the fragmentation process is necessary in order to achieve an optimum design for a desired armour configuration. In this work, shockless spalling tests have been performed on two silicon carbide grades at strain rates ranging from 103 to 104 s−1 using a high-pulsed power generator. These spalling tests characterize the tensile strength strain rate sensitivity of each ceramic grade. The microstructural properties of the ceramics appear to play an important role on the strain rate sensitivity and on the dynamic tensile strength. Moreover, this experimental configuration allows for recovering damaged, but unbroken specimens, giving unique insight on the fragmentation process initiated in the ceramics. All the collected data have been compared with corresponding results of numerical simulations performed using the Denoual–Forquin–Hild anisotropic damage model. Good agreement is observed between numerical simulations and experimental data in terms of free surface velocity, size and location of the damaged zones along with crack density in these damaged zones. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Experimental testing and modelling of brittle materials at high strain rates’. PMID:27956504

Strain rate sensitivity of the tensile strength of two silicon carbides: experimental evidence and micromechanical modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Zinszner, Jean-Luc; Erzar, Benjamin; Forquin, Pascal

2017-01-28

Ceramic materials are commonly used to design multi-layer armour systems thanks to their favourable physical and mechanical properties. However, during an impact event, fragmentation of the ceramic plate inevitably occurs due to its inherent brittleness under tensile loading. Consequently, an accurate model of the fragmentation process is necessary in order to achieve an optimum design for a desired armour configuration. In this work, shockless spalling tests have been performed on two silicon carbide grades at strain rates ranging from 10 3 to 10 4  s -1 using a high-pulsed power generator. These spalling tests characterize the tensile strength strain rate sensitivity of each ceramic grade. The microstructural properties of the ceramics appear to play an important role on the strain rate sensitivity and on the dynamic tensile strength. Moreover, this experimental configuration allows for recovering damaged, but unbroken specimens, giving unique insight on the fragmentation process initiated in the ceramics. All the collected data have been compared with corresponding results of numerical simulations performed using the Denoual-Forquin-Hild anisotropic damage model. Good agreement is observed between numerical simulations and experimental data in terms of free surface velocity, size and location of the damaged zones along with crack density in these damaged zones.This article is part of the themed issue 'Experimental testing and modelling of brittle materials at high strain rates'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Strain rate sensitivity of the tensile strength of two silicon carbides: experimental evidence and micromechanical modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Zinszner, Jean-Luc; Erzar, Benjamin; Forquin, Pascal

2017-01-01

Ceramic materials are commonly used to design multi-layer armour systems thanks to their favourable physical and mechanical properties. However, during an impact event, fragmentation of the ceramic plate inevitably occurs due to its inherent brittleness under tensile loading. Consequently, an accurate model of the fragmentation process is necessary in order to achieve an optimum design for a desired armour configuration. In this work, shockless spalling tests have been performed on two silicon carbide grades at strain rates ranging from 103 to 104 s-1 using a high-pulsed power generator. These spalling tests characterize the tensile strength strain rate sensitivity of each ceramic grade. The microstructural properties of the ceramics appear to play an important role on the strain rate sensitivity and on the dynamic tensile strength. Moreover, this experimental configuration allows for recovering damaged, but unbroken specimens, giving unique insight on the fragmentation process initiated in the ceramics. All the collected data have been compared with corresponding results of numerical simulations performed using the Denoual-Forquin-Hild anisotropic damage model. Good agreement is observed between numerical simulations and experimental data in terms of free surface velocity, size and location of the damaged zones along with crack density in these damaged zones. This article is part of the themed issue 'Experimental testing and modelling of brittle materials at high strain rates'.

Experimental Design for Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleijnen, J.P.C.

2001-01-01

This introductory tutorial gives a survey on the use of statistical designs for what if-or sensitivity analysis in simulation.This analysis uses regression analysis to approximate the input/output transformation that is implied by the simulation model; the resulting regression model is also known as

Prediction of clamp-derived insulin sensitivity from the oral glucose insulin sensitivity index

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tura, Andrea; Chemello, Gaetano; Szendroedi, Julia

2018-01-01

that underwent both a clamp and an OGTT or meal test, thereby allowing calculation of both the M value and OGIS. The population was divided into a training and a validation cohort (n = 359 and n = 154, respectively). After a stepwise selection approach, the best model for M value prediction was applied......AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The euglycaemic-hyperinsulinaemic clamp is the gold-standard method for measuring insulin sensitivity, but is less suitable for large clinical trials. Thus, several indices have been developed for evaluating insulin sensitivity from the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). However......, most of them yield values different from those obtained by the clamp method. The aim of this study was to develop a new index to predict clamp-derived insulin sensitivity (M value) from the OGTT-derived oral glucose insulin sensitivity index (OGIS). METHODS: We analysed datasets of people...

Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for a storm surge and wave model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. A. Bastidas

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Development and simulation of synthetic hurricane tracks is a common methodology used to estimate hurricane hazards in the absence of empirical coastal surge and wave observations. Such methods typically rely on numerical models to translate stochastically generated hurricane wind and pressure forcing into coastal surge and wave estimates. The model output uncertainty associated with selection of appropriate model parameters must therefore be addressed. The computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates is exacerbated by the high dimensionality of numerical surge and wave models. We present a model parameter sensitivity analysis of the Delft3D model for the simulation of hazards posed by Hurricane Bob (1991 utilizing three theoretical wind distributions (NWS23, modified Rankine, and Holland. The sensitive model parameters (of 11 total considered include wind drag, the depth-induced breaking γB, and the bottom roughness. Several parameters show no sensitivity (threshold depth, eddy viscosity, wave triad parameters, and depth-induced breaking αB and can therefore be excluded to reduce the computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates. The sensitive model parameters also demonstrate a large number of interactions between parameters and a nonlinear model response. While model outputs showed sensitivity to several parameters, the ability of these parameters to act as tuning parameters for calibration is somewhat limited as proper model calibration is strongly reliant on accurate wind and pressure forcing data. A comparison of the model performance with forcings from the different wind models is also presented.

A context-sensitive trust model for online social networking

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Danny, MN

2016-11-01

Full Text Available of privacy attacks. In the quest to address this problem, this paper proposes a context-sensitive trust model. The proposed trust model was designed using fuzzy logic theory and implemented using MATLAB. Contrary to existing trust models, the context...

Reproducibility of the heat/capsaicin skin sensitization model in healthy volunteers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cavallone LF

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Laura F Cavallone,1 Karen Frey,1 Michael C Montana,1 Jeremy Joyal,1 Karen J Regina,1 Karin L Petersen,2 Robert W Gereau IV11Department of Anesthesiology, Washington University in St Louis, School of Medicine, St Louis, MO, USA; 2California Pacific Medical Center Research Institute, San Francisco, CA, USAIntroduction: Heat/capsaicin skin sensitization is a well-characterized human experimental model to induce hyperalgesia and allodynia. Using this model, gabapentin, among other drugs, was shown to significantly reduce cutaneous hyperalgesia compared to placebo. Since the larger thermal probes used in the original studies to produce heat sensitization are now commercially unavailable, we decided to assess whether previous findings could be replicated with a currently available smaller probe (heated area 9 cm2 versus 12.5–15.7 cm2.Study design and methods: After Institutional Review Board approval, 15 adult healthy volunteers participated in two study sessions, scheduled 1 week apart (Part A. In both sessions, subjects were exposed to the heat/capsaicin cutaneous sensitization model. Areas of hypersensitivity to brush stroke and von Frey (VF filament stimulation were measured at baseline and after rekindling of skin sensitization. Another group of 15 volunteers was exposed to an identical schedule and set of sensitization procedures, but, in each session, received either gabapentin or placebo (Part B.Results: Unlike previous reports, a similar reduction of areas of hyperalgesia was observed in all groups/sessions. Fading of areas of hyperalgesia over time was observed in Part A. In Part B, there was no difference in area reduction after gabapentin compared to placebo.Conclusion: When using smaller thermal probes than originally proposed, modifications of other parameters of sensitization and/or rekindling process may be needed to allow the heat/capsaicin sensitization protocol to be used as initially intended. Standardization and validation of

Development of an in vitro skin sensitization test using human cell lines; human Cell Line Activation Test (h-CLAT). II. An inter-laboratory study of the h-CLAT.

Science.gov (United States)

Sakaguchi, H; Ashikaga, T; Miyazawa, M; Yoshida, Y; Ito, Y; Yoneyama, K; Hirota, M; Itagaki, H; Toyoda, H; Suzuki, H

2006-08-01

Recent regulatory changes have placed a major emphasis on in vitro safety testing and alternative models. In regard to skin sensitization tests, dendritic cells (DCs) derived from human peripheral blood have been considered in the development of new in vitro alternatives. Human cell lines have been also reported recently. In our previous study, we suggested that measuring CD86 and/or CD54 expression on THP-1 cells (human monocytic leukemia cell line) could be used as an in vitro skin sensitization method. An inter-laboratory study among two laboratories was undertaken in Japan in order to further develop an in vitro skin sensitization model. In the present study, we used two human cell lines: THP-1 and U-937 (human histiocytic lymphoma cell line). First we optimized our test protocol (refer to the related paper entitled "optimization of the h-CLAT protocol" within this journal) and then we did an inter-laboratory validation with nine chemicals using the optimized protocol. We measured the expression of CD86 and CD54 on the above cells using flow cytometry after a 24h and 48h exposure to six known allergens (e.g., DNCB, pPD, NiSO(4)) and three non-allergens (e.g., SLS, tween 80). For the sample test concentration, four doses (0.1x, 0.5x, 1x, and 2x of the 50% inhibitory concentration (IC(50))) were evaluated. IC(50) was calculated using MTT assay. We found that allergens/non-allergens were better predicted using THP-1 cells compared to U-937 cells following a 24 h and a 48 h exposure. We also found that the 24h treatment time tended to have a better accuracy than the 48 h treatment time for THP-1 cells. Expression of CD86 and CD54 were good predictive markers for THP-1 cells, but for U-937 cells, expression of CD86 was a better predictor than CD54, at the 24h and the 48 h treatment time. The accuracy also improved when both markers (CD86 and CD54) were used as compared with a single marker for THP-1 cells. Both laboratories gave a good prediction of allergen

Monochromatic Measurements of the JPSS-1 VIIRS Polarization Sensitivity

Science.gov (United States)

McIntire, Jeff; Moyer, David; Brown, Steven W.; Lykke, Keith R.; Waluschka, Eugene; Oudrari, Hassan; Xiong, Xiaoxiong

2016-01-01

Polarization sensitivity is a critical property that must be characterized for spaceborne remote sensing instruments designed to measure reflected solar radiation. Broadband testing of the first Joint Polar-orbiting Satellite System (JPSS-1) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) showed unexpectedly large polarization sensitivities for the bluest bands on VIIRS (centered between 400 and 600 nm). Subsequent ray trace modeling indicated that large diattenuation on the edges of the bandpass for these spectral bands was the driver behind these large sensitivities. Additional testing using the National Institute of Standards and Technologies Traveling Spectral Irradiance and Radiance Responsivity Calibrations Using Uniform Sources was added to the test program to verify and enhance the model. The testing was limited in scope to two spectral bands at two scan angles; nonetheless, this additional testing provided valuable insight into the polarization sensitivity. Analysis has shown that the derived diattenuation agreed with the broadband measurements to within an absolute difference of about0.4 and that the ray trace model reproduced the general features of the measured data. Additionally, by deriving the spectral responsivity, the linear diattenuation is shown to be explicitly dependent on the changes in bandwidth with polarization state.

Global sensitivity analysis for an integrated model for simulation of nitrogen dynamics under the irrigation with treated wastewater.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Huaiwei; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong; Wang, Xiugui

2015-11-01

As the amount of water resources that can be utilized for agricultural production is limited, the reuse of treated wastewater (TWW) for irrigation is a practical solution to alleviate the water crisis in China. The process-based models, which estimate nitrogen dynamics under irrigation, are widely used to investigate the best irrigation and fertilization management practices in developed and developing countries. However, for modeling such a complex system for wastewater reuse, it is critical to conduct a sensitivity analysis to determine numerous input parameters and their interactions that contribute most to the variance of the model output for the development of process-based model. In this study, application of a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for nitrogen dynamics was reported. The objective was to compare different global sensitivity analysis (GSA) on the key parameters for different model predictions of nitrogen and crop growth modules. The analysis was performed as two steps. Firstly, Morris screening method, which is one of the most commonly used screening method, was carried out to select the top affected parameters; then, a variance-based global sensitivity analysis method (extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, EFAST) was used to investigate more thoroughly the effects of selected parameters on model predictions. The results of GSA showed that strong parameter interactions exist in crop nitrogen uptake, nitrogen denitrification, crop yield, and evapotranspiration modules. Among all parameters, one of the soil physical-related parameters named as the van Genuchten air entry parameter showed the largest sensitivity effects on major model predictions. These results verified that more effort should be focused on quantifying soil parameters for more accurate model predictions in nitrogen- and crop-related predictions, and stress the need to better calibrate the model in a global sense. This study demonstrates the advantages of the GSA on a

Magnetic Testing, and Modeling, Simulation and Analysis for Space Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Boghosian, Mary; Narvaez, Pablo; Herman, Ray

2012-01-01

The Aerospace Corporation (Aerospace) and Lockheed Martin Space Systems (LMSS) participated with Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in the implementation of a magnetic cleanliness program of the NASA/JPL JUNO mission. The magnetic cleanliness program was applied from early flight system development up through system level environmental testing. The JUNO magnetic cleanliness program required setting-up a specialized magnetic test facility at Lockheed Martin Space Systems for testing the flight system and a testing program with facility for testing system parts and subsystems at JPL. The magnetic modeling, simulation and analysis capability was set up and performed by Aerospace to provide qualitative and quantitative magnetic assessments of the magnetic parts, components, and subsystems prior to or in lieu of magnetic tests. Because of the sensitive nature of the fields and particles scientific measurements being conducted by the JUNO space mission to Jupiter, the imposition of stringent magnetic control specifications required a magnetic control program to ensure that the spacecraft's science magnetometers and plasma wave search coil were not magnetically contaminated by flight system magnetic interferences. With Aerospace's magnetic modeling, simulation and analysis and JPL's system modeling and testing approach, and LMSS's test support, the project achieved a cost effective approach to achieving a magnetically clean spacecraft. This paper presents lessons learned from the JUNO magnetic testing approach and Aerospace's modeling, simulation and analysis activities used to solve problems such as remnant magnetization, performance of hard and soft magnetic materials within the targeted space system in applied external magnetic fields.

Revisiting the radionuclide atmospheric dispersion event of the Chernobyl disaster - modelling sensitivity and data assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Roustan, Yelva; Duhanyan, Nora; Bocquet, Marc; Winiarek, Victor

2013-04-01

A sensitivity study of the numerical model, as well as, an inverse modelling approach applied to the atmospheric dispersion issues after the Chernobyl disaster are both presented in this paper. On the one hand, the robustness of the source term reconstruction through advanced data assimilation techniques was tested. On the other hand, the classical approaches for sensitivity analysis were enhanced by the use of an optimised forcing field which otherwise is known to be strongly uncertain. The POLYPHEMUS air quality system was used to perform the simulations of radionuclide dispersion. Activity concentrations in air and deposited to the ground of iodine-131, caesium-137 and caesium-134 were considered. The impact of the implemented parameterizations of the physical processes (dry and wet depositions, vertical turbulent diffusion), of the forcing fields (meteorology and source terms) and of the numerical configuration (horizontal resolution) were investigated for the sensitivity study of the model. A four dimensional variational scheme (4D-Var) based on the approximate adjoint of the chemistry transport model was used to invert the source term. The data assimilation is performed with measurements of activity concentrations in air extracted from the Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring (REM) database. For most of the investigated configurations (sensitivity study), the statistics to compare the model results to the field measurements as regards the concentrations in air are clearly improved while using a reconstructed source term. As regards the ground deposited concentrations, an improvement can only be seen in case of satisfactorily modelled episode. Through these studies, the source term and the meteorological fields are proved to have a major impact on the activity concentrations in air. These studies also reinforce the use of reconstructed source term instead of the usual estimated one. A more detailed parameterization of the deposition process seems also to be

Speech-in-noise screening tests by internet, part 3: test sensitivity for uncontrolled parameters in domestic usage

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leensen, Monique C. J.; Dreschler, Wouter A.

2013-01-01

The online speech-in-noise test 'Earcheck' is sensitive for noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL). This study investigates effects of uncontrollable parameters in domestic self-screening, such as presentation level and transducer type, on speech reception thresholds (SRTs) obtained with Earcheck.

Sensitivity and specificity of the 3-item memory test in the assessment of post traumatic amnesia.

Science.gov (United States)

Andriessen, Teuntje M J C; de Jong, Ben; Jacobs, Bram; van der Werf, Sieberen P; Vos, Pieter E

2009-04-01

To investigate how the type of stimulus (pictures or words) and the method of reproduction (free recall or recognition after a short or a long delay) affect the sensitivity and specificity of a 3-item memory test in the assessment of post traumatic amnesia (PTA). Daily testing was performed in 64 consecutively admitted traumatic brain injured patients, 22 orthopedically injured patients and 26 healthy controls until criteria for resolution of PTA were reached. Subjects were randomly assigned to a test with visual or verbal stimuli. Short delay reproduction was tested after an interval of 3-5 minutes, long delay reproduction was tested after 24 hours. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated over the first 4 test days. The 3-word test showed higher sensitivity than the 3-picture test, while specificity of the two tests was equally high. Free recall was a more effortful task than recognition for both patients and controls. In patients, a longer delay between registration and recall resulted in a significant decrease in the number of items reproduced. Presence of PTA is best assessed with a memory test that incorporates the free recall of words after a long delay.

Sensitivity experiments to mountain representations in spectral models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

U. Schlese

2000-06-01

Full Text Available This paper describes a set of sensitivity experiments to several formulations of orography. Three sets are considered: a "Standard" orography consisting of an envelope orography produced originally for the ECMWF model, a"Navy" orography directly from the US Navy data and a "Scripps" orography based on the data set originally compiled several years ago at Scripps. The last two are mean orographies which do not use the envelope enhancement. A new filtering technique for handling the problem of Gibbs oscillations in spectral models has been used to produce the "Navy" and "Scripps" orographies, resulting in smoother fields than the "Standard" orography. The sensitivity experiments show that orography is still an important factor in controlling the model performance even in this class of models that use a semi-lagrangian formulation for water vapour, that in principle should be less sensitive to Gibbs oscillations than the Eulerian formulation. The largest impact can be seen in the stationary waves (asymmetric part of the geopotential at 500 mb where the differences in total height and spatial pattern generate up to 60 m differences, and in the surface fields where the Gibbs removal procedure is successful in alleviating the appearance of unrealistic oscillations over the ocean. These results indicate that Gibbs oscillations also need to be treated in this class of models. The best overall result is obtained using the "Navy" data set, that achieves a good compromise between amplitude of the stationary waves and smoothness of the surface fields.

Transient dynamic and modeling parameter sensitivity analysis of 1D solid oxide fuel cell model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huangfu, Yigeng; Gao, Fei; Abbas-Turki, Abdeljalil; Bouquain, David; Miraoui, Abdellatif

2013-01-01

Highlights: • A multiphysics, 1D, dynamic SOFC model is developed. • The presented model is validated experimentally in eight different operating conditions. • Electrochemical and thermal dynamic transient time expressions are given in explicit forms. • Parameter sensitivity is discussed for different semi-empirical parameters in the model. - Abstract: In this paper, a multiphysics solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) dynamic model is developed by using a one dimensional (1D) modeling approach. The dynamic effects of double layer capacitance on the electrochemical domain and the dynamic effect of thermal capacity on thermal domain are thoroughly considered. The 1D approach allows the model to predict the non-uniform distributions of current density, gas pressure and temperature in SOFC during its operation. The developed model has been experimentally validated, under different conditions of temperature and gas pressure. Based on the proposed model, the explicit time constant expressions for different dynamic phenomena in SOFC have been given and discussed in detail. A parameters sensitivity study has also been performed and discussed by using statistical Multi Parameter Sensitivity Analysis (MPSA) method, in order to investigate the impact of parameters on the modeling accuracy

Estimating negative likelihood ratio confidence when test sensitivity is 100%: A bootstrapping approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Marill, Keith A; Chang, Yuchiao; Wong, Kim F; Friedman, Ari B

2017-08-01

Objectives Assessing high-sensitivity tests for mortal illness is crucial in emergency and critical care medicine. Estimating the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the likelihood ratio (LR) can be challenging when sample sensitivity is 100%. We aimed to develop, compare, and automate a bootstrapping method to estimate the negative LR CI when sample sensitivity is 100%. Methods The lowest population sensitivity that is most likely to yield sample sensitivity 100% is located using the binomial distribution. Random binomial samples generated using this population sensitivity are then used in the LR bootstrap. A free R program, "bootLR," automates the process. Extensive simulations were performed to determine how often the LR bootstrap and comparator method 95% CIs cover the true population negative LR value. Finally, the 95% CI was compared for theoretical sample sizes and sensitivities approaching and including 100% using: (1) a technique of individual extremes, (2) SAS software based on the technique of Gart and Nam, (3) the Score CI (as implemented in the StatXact, SAS, and R PropCI package), and (4) the bootstrapping technique. Results The bootstrapping approach demonstrates appropriate coverage of the nominal 95% CI over a spectrum of populations and sample sizes. Considering a study of sample size 200 with 100 patients with disease, and specificity 60%, the lowest population sensitivity with median sample sensitivity 100% is 99.31%. When all 100 patients with disease test positive, the negative LR 95% CIs are: individual extremes technique (0,0.073), StatXact (0,0.064), SAS Score method (0,0.057), R PropCI (0,0.062), and bootstrap (0,0.048). Similar trends were observed for other sample sizes. Conclusions When study samples demonstrate 100% sensitivity, available methods may yield inappropriately wide negative LR CIs. An alternative bootstrapping approach and accompanying free open-source R package were developed to yield realistic estimates easily. This

Four nondestructive electrochemical tests for detecting sensitization in type 304 and 304L stainless steels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Majidi, A.P.; Streicher, A.

1986-01-01

Three different electrochemical reactivation tests are compared with etch structures produced in the electrolytic oxalic acid etch test. These nondestructive tests are needed to evaluate welded stainless steel pipes and other plant equipment for susceptibility to intergranular attack. Sensitization associated with precipitates of chromium carbides at grain boundaries can make these materials subject to intergranular attack in acids and, in particular, to intergranular stress corrosion cracking in high-temperature (289 0 C) water on boiling water nuclear reactor power plants. In the first of the two older reactivation tests, sensitization is detected by the electrical charge generated during reactivation. In the second, it is measured by the ratio of maximum currents generated by a prior anodic loop and the reactivation loop. A third, simpler reactivation method based on a measurement of the maximum current generated during reactivation is proposed. If the objective of the field tests, which are to be carried out with portable equipment, is to distinguish between nonsensitized and sensitized material, this can be accomplished most simply, most rapidly, and at lowest cost by an evaluation of oxalic acid etch structures

Testing the sensitivity of Staphylococcus aureus antibiotics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marioara Nicoleta FILIMON

2009-11-01

Full Text Available This study has in view to establish and test the sensitivity of Staphylococcus aureus antibiotics. There are different injuries caused by superficial skin infections: from simple pimples to infections that endanger our lives, like an abscess, furuncle septicemia, meningitis, toxic food, urinary tract infection at sexually active young women. Samples have been taken from 30 people with staphylococcus infections. They were nineteen women and eleven men, between the age of 2 and 79. During this study some antibiograms have been made, based on pharyngeal exudates, acne secretion and urine culture. It has been established that the most efficient recommended antibiotics are: oxacilin, erythromycin, rifampicin and ciprofloxacin. The penicillin turned out to be less efficient to remove and destroy the Staphylococcus aureus species.

Automated sensitivity analysis using the GRESS language

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pin, F.G.; Oblow, E.M.; Wright, R.Q.

1986-04-01

An automated procedure for performing large-scale sensitivity studies based on the use of computer calculus is presented. The procedure is embodied in a FORTRAN precompiler called GRESS, which automatically processes computer models and adds derivative-taking capabilities to the normal calculated results. In this report, the GRESS code is described, tested against analytic and numerical test problems, and then applied to a major geohydrological modeling problem. The SWENT nuclear waste repository modeling code is used as the basis for these studies. Results for all problems are discussed in detail. Conclusions are drawn as to the applicability of GRESS in the problems at hand and for more general large-scale modeling sensitivity studies

Quantifying uncertainty and sensitivity in sea ice models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Hunke, Elizabeth Clare [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Urban, Nathan Mark [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2016-07-15

The Los Alamos Sea Ice model has a number of input parameters for which accurate values are not always well established. We conduct a variance-based sensitivity analysis of hemispheric sea ice properties to 39 input parameters. The method accounts for non-linear and non-additive effects in the model.

Automating sensitivity analysis of computer models using computer calculus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oblow, E.M.; Pin, F.G.

1985-01-01

An automated procedure for performing sensitivity analyses has been developed. The procedure uses a new FORTRAN compiler with computer calculus capabilities to generate the derivatives needed to set up sensitivity equations. The new compiler is called GRESS - Gradient Enhanced Software System. Application of the automated procedure with ''direct'' and ''adjoint'' sensitivity theory for the analysis of non-linear, iterative systems of equations is discussed. Calculational efficiency consideration and techniques for adjoint sensitivity analysis are emphasized. The new approach is found to preserve the traditional advantages of adjoint theory while removing the tedious human effort previously needed to apply this theoretical methodology. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of the automated procedure in numerical analysis and large-scale modelling sensitivity studies. 24 refs., 2 figs

Automating sensitivity analysis of computer models using computer calculus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oblow, E.M.; Pin, F.G.

1986-01-01

An automated procedure for performing sensitivity analysis has been developed. The procedure uses a new FORTRAN compiler with computer calculus capabilities to generate the derivatives needed to set up sensitivity equations. The new compiler is called GRESS - Gradient Enhanced Software System. Application of the automated procedure with direct and adjoint sensitivity theory for the analysis of non-linear, iterative systems of equations is discussed. Calculational efficiency consideration and techniques for adjoint sensitivity analysis are emphasized. The new approach is found to preserve the traditional advantages of adjoint theory while removing the tedious human effort previously needed to apply this theoretical methodology. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of the automated procedure in numerical analysis and large-scale modelling sensitivity studies

ADGEN: a system for automated sensitivity analysis of predictive models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pin, F.G.; Horwedel, J.E.; Oblow, E.M.; Lucius, J.L.

1986-09-01

A system that can automatically enhance computer codes with a sensitivity calculation capability is presented. With this new system, named ADGEN, rapid and cost-effective calculation of sensitivities can be performed in any FORTRAN code for all input data or parameters. The resulting sensitivities can be used in performance assessment studies related to licensing or interactions with the public to systematically and quantitatively prove the relative importance of each of the system parameters in calculating the final performance results. A general procedure calling for the systematic use of sensitivities in assessment studies is presented. The procedure can be used in modelling and model validation studies to avoid ''over modelling,'' in site characterization planning to avoid ''over collection of data,'' and in performance assessment to determine the uncertainties on the final calculated results. The added capability to formally perform the inverse problem, i.e., to determine the input data or parameters on which to focus additional research or analysis effort in order to improve the uncertainty of the final results, is also discussed

Deterministic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for large-scale computer models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Worley, B.A.; Pin, F.G.; Oblow, E.M.; Maerker, R.E.; Horwedel, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.

1988-01-01

The fields of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis have traditionally been dominated by statistical techniques when large-scale modeling codes are being analyzed. These methods are able to estimate sensitivities, generate response surfaces, and estimate response probability distributions given the input parameter probability distributions. Because the statistical methods are computationally costly, they are usually applied only to problems with relatively small parameter sets. Deterministic methods, on the other hand, are very efficient and can handle large data sets, but generally require simpler models because of the considerable programming effort required for their implementation. The first part of this paper reports on the development and availability of two systems, GRESS and ADGEN, that make use of computer calculus compilers to automate the implementation of deterministic sensitivity analysis capability into existing computer models. This automation removes the traditional limitation of deterministic sensitivity methods. This second part of the paper describes a deterministic uncertainty analysis method (DUA) that uses derivative information as a basis to propagate parameter probability distributions to obtain result probability distributions. This paper is applicable to low-level radioactive waste disposal system performance assessment

Modelling the impact of Water Sensitive Urban Design technologies on the urban water cycle

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Locatelli, Luca

Alternative stormwater management approaches for urban developments, also called Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD), are increasingly being adopted with the aims of providing flood control, flow management, water quality improvements and opportunities to harvest stormwater for non-potable uses....... To model the interaction of infiltration based WSUDs with groundwater. 4. To assess a new combination of different WSUD techniques for improved stormwater management. 5. To model the impact of a widespread implementation of multiple soakaway systems at the catchment scale. 6. Test the models by simulating...... the hydrological performance of single devices relevant for urban drainage applications. Moreover, the coupling of soakaway and detention storages is also modeled to analyze the benefits of combining different local stormwater management systems. These models are then integrated into urban drainage network models...

An Animal Model of Trichloroethylene-Induced Skin Sensitization in BALB/c Mice.

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Wang, Hui; Zhang, Jia-xiang; Li, Shu-long; Wang, Feng; Zha, Wan-sheng; Shen, Tong; Wu, Changhao; Zhu, Qi-xing

2015-01-01

Trichloroethylene (TCE) is a major occupational hazard and environmental contaminant that can cause multisystem disorders in the form of occupational medicamentosa-like dermatitis. Development of dermatitis involves several proinflammatory cytokines, but their role in TCE-mediated dermatitis has not been examined in a well-defined experimental model. In addition, few animal models of TCE sensitization are available, and the current guinea pig model has apparent limitations. This study aimed to establish a model of TCE-induced skin sensitization in BALB/c mice and to examine the role of several key inflammatory cytokines on TCE sensitization. The sensitization rate of dorsal painted group was 38.3%. Skin edema and erythema occurred in TCE-sensitized groups, as seen in 2,4-dinitrochlorobenzene (DNCB) positive control. Trichloroethylene sensitization-positive (dermatitis [+]) group exhibited increased thickness of epidermis, inflammatory cell infiltration, swelling, and necrosis in dermis and around hair follicle, but ear painted group did not show these histological changes. The concentrations of serum proinflammatory cytokines including tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, interferon (IFN)-γ, and interleukin (IL)-2 were significantly increased in 24, 48, and 72 hours dermatitis [+] groups treated with TCE and peaked at 72 hours. Deposition of TNF-α, IFN-γ, and IL-2 into the skin tissue was also revealed by immunohistochemistry. We have established a new animal model of skin sensitization induced by repeated TCE stimulations, and we provide the first evidence that key proinflammatory cytokines including TNF-α, IFN-γ, and IL-2 play an important role in the process of TCE sensitization. © The Author(s) 2015.

A framework for 2-stage global sensitivity analysis of GastroPlus™ compartmental models.

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Scherholz, Megerle L; Forder, James; Androulakis, Ioannis P

2018-04-01

Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are becoming an important consideration for regulatory submissions, requiring further evaluation to establish the need for global sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the benefits of an extensive analysis, global sensitivity was implemented for the GastroPlus™ model, a well-known commercially available platform, using four example drugs: acetaminophen, risperidone, atenolol, and furosemide. The capabilities of GastroPlus were expanded by developing an integrated framework to automate the GastroPlus graphical user interface with AutoIt and for execution of the sensitivity analysis in MATLAB ® . Global sensitivity analysis was performed in two stages using the Morris method to screen over 50 parameters for significant factors followed by quantitative assessment of variability using Sobol's sensitivity analysis. The 2-staged approach significantly reduced computational cost for the larger model without sacrificing interpretation of model behavior, showing that the sensitivity results were well aligned with the biopharmaceutical classification system. Both methods detected nonlinearities and parameter interactions that would have otherwise been missed by local approaches. Future work includes further exploration of how the input domain influences the calculated global sensitivity measures as well as extending the framework to consider a whole-body PBPK model.

A sensitivity analysis of regional and small watershed hydrologic models

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Ambaruch, R.; Salomonson, V. V.; Simmons, J. W.

1975-01-01

Continuous simulation models of the hydrologic behavior of watersheds are important tools in several practical applications such as hydroelectric power planning, navigation, and flood control. Several recent studies have addressed the feasibility of using remote earth observations as sources of input data for hydrologic models. The objective of the study reported here was to determine how accurately remotely sensed measurements must be to provide inputs to hydrologic models of watersheds, within the tolerances needed for acceptably accurate synthesis of streamflow by the models. The study objective was achieved by performing a series of sensitivity analyses using continuous simulation models of three watersheds. The sensitivity analysis showed quantitatively how variations in each of 46 model inputs and parameters affect simulation accuracy with respect to five different performance indices.

Flow analysis with WaSiM-ETH – model parameter sensitivity at different scales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Cullmann

2006-01-01

Full Text Available WaSiM-ETH (Gurtz et al., 2001, a widely used water balance simulation model, is tested for its suitability to serve for flow analysis in the context of rainfall runoff modelling and flood forecasting. In this paper, special focus is on the resolution of the process domain in space as well as in time. We try to couple model runs with different calculation time steps in order to reduce the effort arising from calculating the whole flow hydrograph at the hourly time step. We aim at modelling on the daily time step for water balance purposes, switching to the hourly time step whenever high-resolution information is necessary (flood forecasting. WaSiM-ETH is used at different grid resolutions, thus we try to become clear about being able to transfer the model in spatial resolution. We further use two different approaches for the overland flow time calculation within the sub-basins of the test watershed to gain insights about the process dynamics portrayed by the model. Our findings indicate that the model is very sensitive to time and space resolution and cannot be transferred across scales without recalibration.

Estimating the true accuracy of diagnostic tests for dengue infection using bayesian latent class models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wirichada Pan-ngum

Full Text Available Accuracy of rapid diagnostic tests for dengue infection has been repeatedly estimated by comparing those tests with reference assays. We hypothesized that those estimates might be inaccurate if the accuracy of the reference assays is not perfect. Here, we investigated this using statistical modeling.Data from a cohort study of 549 patients suspected of dengue infection presenting at Colombo North Teaching Hospital, Ragama, Sri Lanka, that described the application of our reference assay (a combination of Dengue IgM antibody capture ELISA and IgG antibody capture ELISA and of three rapid diagnostic tests (Panbio NS1 antigen, IgM antibody and IgG antibody rapid immunochromatographic cassette tests were re-evaluated using bayesian latent class models (LCMs. The estimated sensitivity and specificity of the reference assay were 62.0% and 99.6%, respectively. Prevalence of dengue infection (24.3%, and sensitivities and specificities of the Panbio NS1 (45.9% and 97.9%, IgM (54.5% and 95.5% and IgG (62.1% and 84.5% estimated by bayesian LCMs were significantly different from those estimated by assuming that the reference assay was perfect. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for a combination of NS1, IgM and IgG cassette tests on admission samples were 87.0%, 82.8%, 62.0% and 95.2%, respectively.Our reference assay is an imperfect gold standard. In our setting, the combination of NS1, IgM and IgG rapid diagnostic tests could be used on admission to rule out dengue infection with a high level of accuracy (NPV 95.2%. Further evaluation of rapid diagnostic tests for dengue infection should include the use of appropriate statistical models.

Efficient transfer of sensitivity information in multi-component models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdel-Khalik, Hany S.; Rabiti, Cristian

2011-01-01

In support of adjoint-based sensitivity analysis, this manuscript presents a new method to efficiently transfer adjoint information between components in a multi-component model, whereas the output of one component is passed as input to the next component. Often, one is interested in evaluating the sensitivities of the responses calculated by the last component to the inputs of the first component in the overall model. The presented method has two advantages over existing methods which may be classified into two broad categories: brute force-type methods and amalgamated-type methods. First, the presented method determines the minimum number of adjoint evaluations for each component as opposed to the brute force-type methods which require full evaluation of all sensitivities for all responses calculated by each component in the overall model, which proves computationally prohibitive for realistic problems. Second, the new method treats each component as a black-box as opposed to amalgamated-type methods which requires explicit knowledge of the system of equations associated with each component in order to reach the minimum number of adjoint evaluations. (author)

An experimental model of allergic asthma in cats sensitized to house dust mite or bermuda grass allergen.

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Norris Reinero, Carol R; Decile, Kendra C; Berghaus, Roy D; Williams, Kurt J; Leutenegger, Christian M; Walby, William F; Schelegle, Edward S; Hyde, Dallas M; Gershwin, Laurel J

2004-10-01

Animal models are used to mimic human asthma, however, not all models replicate the major characteristics of the human disease. Spontaneous development of asthma with hallmark features similar to humans has been documented to occur with relative frequency in only one animal species, the cat. We hypothesized that we could develop an experimental model of feline asthma using clinically relevant aeroallergens identified from cases of naturally developing feline asthma, and characterize immunologic, physiologic, and pathologic changes over 1 year. House dust mite (HDMA) and Bermuda grass (BGA) allergen were selected by screening 10 privately owned pet cats with spontaneous asthma using a serum allergen-specific IgE ELISA. Parenteral sensitization and aerosol challenges were used to replicate the naturally developing disease in research cats. The asthmatic phenotype was characterized using intradermal skin testing, serum allergen-specific IgE ELISA, serum and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) IgG and IgA ELISAs, airway hyperresponsiveness testing, BALF cytology, cytokine profiles using TaqMan PCR, and histopathologic evaluation. Sensitization with HDMA or BGA in cats led to allergen-specific IgE production, allergen-specific serum and BALF IgG and IgA production, airway hyperreactivity, airway eosinophilia, an acute T helper 2 cytokine profile in peripheral blood mononuclear cells and BALF cells, and histologic evidence of airway remodeling. Using clinically relevant aeroallergens to sensitize and challenge the cat provides an additional animal model to study the immunopathophysiologic mechanisms of allergic asthma. Chronic exposure to allergen in the cat leads to a variety of immunologic, physiologic, and pathologic changes that mimic the features seen in human asthma.

Touch-sensitive colour graphics enhance monitoring of loss-of-coolant accident tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Snedden, M.D.; Mead, G.L.

1982-01-01

A stand-alone computer-based system with an intelligent colour termimal is described for monitoring parameters during loss-of-coolant accident tests. Colour graphic displays and touch-sensitive control have been combined for effective operator interaction. Data collected by the host MODCOMP II minicomputer are dynamically updated on colour pictures generated by the terminal. Experimenters select system functions by touching simulated switches on a transparent touch-sensitive overlay, mounted directly over the face of the colour screen, eliminating the need for a keyboard. Switch labels and colours are changed on the screen by the terminal software as different functions are selected. Interaction is self-prompting and can be learned quickly. System operation for a complete set of 20 tests has demonstrated the convenience of interactive touchsensitive colour graphics

A non-human primate model for gluten sensitivity.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael T Bethune

2008-02-01

Full Text Available Gluten sensitivity is widespread among humans. For example, in celiac disease patients, an inflammatory response to dietary gluten leads to enteropathy, malabsorption, circulating antibodies against gluten and transglutaminase 2, and clinical symptoms such as diarrhea. There is a growing need in fundamental and translational research for animal models that exhibit aspects of human gluten sensitivity.Using ELISA-based antibody assays, we screened a population of captive rhesus macaques with chronic diarrhea of non-infectious origin to estimate the incidence of gluten sensitivity. A selected animal with elevated anti-gliadin antibodies and a matched control were extensively studied through alternating periods of gluten-free diet and gluten challenge. Blinded clinical and histological evaluations were conducted to seek evidence for gluten sensitivity.When fed with a gluten-containing diet, gluten-sensitive macaques showed signs and symptoms of celiac disease including chronic diarrhea, malabsorptive steatorrhea, intestinal lesions and anti-gliadin antibodies. A gluten-free diet reversed these clinical, histological and serological features, while reintroduction of dietary gluten caused rapid relapse.Gluten-sensitive rhesus macaques may be an attractive resource for investigating both the pathogenesis and the treatment of celiac disease.

Sensitivity analysis of an environmental model: an application of different analysis methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campolongo, Francesca; Saltelli, Andrea

1997-01-01

A parametric sensitivity analysis (SA) was conducted on a well known model for the production of a key sulphur bearing compound from algal biota. The model is of interest because of the climatic relevance of the gas (dimethylsulphide, DMS), an initiator of cloud particles. A screening test at low sample size is applied first (Morris method) followed by a computationally intensive variance based measure. Standardised regression coefficients are also computed. The various SA measures are compared with each other, and the use of bootstrap is suggested to extract empirical confidence bounds on the SA estimators. For some of the input factors, investigators guess about the parameters relevance was confirmed; for some others, the results shed new light on the system mechanism and on the data parametrisation

An individual reproduction model sensitive to milk yield and body condition in Holstein dairy cows.

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Brun-Lafleur, L; Cutullic, E; Faverdin, P; Delaby, L; Disenhaus, C

2013-08-01

To simulate the consequences of management in dairy herds, the use of individual-based herd models is very useful and has become common. Reproduction is a key driver of milk production and herd dynamics, whose influence has been magnified by the decrease in reproductive performance over the last decades. Moreover, feeding management influences milk yield (MY) and body reserves, which in turn influence reproductive performance. Therefore, our objective was to build an up-to-date animal reproduction model sensitive to both MY and body condition score (BCS). A dynamic and stochastic individual reproduction model was built mainly from data of a single recent long-term experiment. This model covers the whole reproductive process and is composed of a succession of discrete stochastic events, mainly calving, ovulations, conception and embryonic loss. Each reproductive step is sensitive to MY or BCS levels or changes. The model takes into account recent evolutions of reproductive performance, particularly concerning calving-to-first ovulation interval, cyclicity (normal cycle length, prevalence of prolonged luteal phase), oestrus expression and pregnancy (conception, early and late embryonic loss). A sensitivity analysis of the model to MY and BCS at calving was performed. The simulated performance was compared with observed data from the database used to build the model and from the bibliography to validate the model. Despite comprising a whole series of reproductive steps, the model made it possible to simulate realistic global reproduction outputs. It was able to well simulate the overall reproductive performance observed in farms in terms of both success rate (recalving rate) and reproduction delays (calving interval). This model has the purpose to be integrated in herd simulation models to usefully test the impact of management strategies on herd reproductive performance, and thus on calving patterns and culling rates.

First evidence that drugs of abuse produce behavioral sensitization and cross-sensitization in planarians

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Rawls, Scott M.; Patil, Tavni; Yuvasheva, Ekaternia; Raffa, Robert B.

2010-01-01

Behavioral sensitization in mammals, including humans, is sensitive to factors such as administration route, testing environment, and pharmacokinetic confounds, unrelated to the drugs themselves, that are difficult to eliminate. Simpler animals less susceptible to these confounding influences may be advantageous substitutes for studying sensitization. We tested this hypothesis by determining if planarians display sensitization and cross-sensitization to cocaine and glutamate. Planarian hyperactivity was quantified as the number of C-like hyperkinesias during a 1-min drug exposure. Planarians exposed initially to cocaine (or glutamate) on day 1 were challenged with cocaine (or glutamate) after 2 or 6 days of abstinence. Acute cocaine or glutamate produced concentration-related hyperactivity. Cocaine or glutamate challenge after 2 and 6 days of abstinence enhanced the hyperactivity, indicating the substances produced planarian behavioral sensitization (pBS). Cross-sensitization experiments showed that cocaine produced greater hyperactivity in planarians previously exposed to glutamate than in glutamate-naïve planarians, and vice versa. Behavioral responses were pharmacologically selective because neither scopolamine nor caffeine produced pBS despite causing hyperactivity after initial administration, and acute GABA did not cause hyperactivity. Demonstration of pharmacologically-selective behavioral sensitization in planarians suggests these flatworms represent a sensitive in vivo model to study cocaine behavioral sensitization and to screen potential abuse-deterrent therapeutics. PMID:20512030

Prior Sensitivity Analysis in Default Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling.

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van Erp, Sara; Mulder, Joris; Oberski, Daniel L

2017-11-27

Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) has recently gained popularity because it enables researchers to fit complex models and solve some of the issues often encountered in classical maximum likelihood estimation, such as nonconvergence and inadmissible solutions. An important component of any Bayesian analysis is the prior distribution of the unknown model parameters. Often, researchers rely on default priors, which are constructed in an automatic fashion without requiring substantive prior information. However, the prior can have a serious influence on the estimation of the model parameters, which affects the mean squared error, bias, coverage rates, and quantiles of the estimates. In this article, we investigate the performance of three different default priors: noninformative improper priors, vague proper priors, and empirical Bayes priors-with the latter being novel in the BSEM literature. Based on a simulation study, we find that these three default BSEM methods may perform very differently, especially with small samples. A careful prior sensitivity analysis is therefore needed when performing a default BSEM analysis. For this purpose, we provide a practical step-by-step guide for practitioners to conducting a prior sensitivity analysis in default BSEM. Our recommendations are illustrated using a well-known case study from the structural equation modeling literature, and all code for conducting the prior sensitivity analysis is available in the online supplemental materials. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Reproduction of the Yucca Mountain Project TSPA-LA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses and Preliminary Upgrade of Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hadgu, Teklu [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Nuclear Waste Disposal Research and Analysis; Appel, Gordon John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Nuclear Waste Disposal Research and Analysis

2016-09-01

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) continued evaluation of total system performance assessment (TSPA) computing systems for the previously considered Yucca Mountain Project (YMP). This was done to maintain the operational readiness of the computing infrastructure (computer hardware and software) and knowledge capability for total system performance assessment (TSPA) type analysis, as directed by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), DOE 2010. This work is a continuation of the ongoing readiness evaluation reported in Lee and Hadgu (2014) and Hadgu et al. (2015). The TSPA computing hardware (CL2014) and storage system described in Hadgu et al. (2015) were used for the current analysis. One floating license of GoldSim with Versions 9.60.300, 10.5 and 11.1.6 was installed on the cluster head node, and its distributed processing capability was mapped on the cluster processors. Other supporting software were tested and installed to support the TSPA-type analysis on the server cluster. The current tasks included verification of the TSPA-LA uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, and preliminary upgrade of the TSPA-LA from Version 9.60.300 to the latest version 11.1. All the TSPA-LA uncertainty and sensitivity analyses modeling cases were successfully tested and verified for the model reproducibility on the upgraded 2014 server cluster (CL2014). The uncertainty and sensitivity analyses used TSPA-LA modeling cases output generated in FY15 based on GoldSim Version 9.60.300 documented in Hadgu et al. (2015). The model upgrade task successfully converted the Nominal Modeling case to GoldSim Version 11.1. Upgrade of the remaining of the modeling cases and distributed processing tasks will continue. The 2014 server cluster and supporting software systems are fully operational to support TSPA-LA type analysis.

A general first-order global sensitivity analysis method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Chonggang; Gertner, George Zdzislaw

2008-01-01

Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST) is one of the most popular global sensitivity analysis techniques. The main mechanism of FAST is to assign each parameter with a characteristic frequency through a search function. Then, for a specific parameter, the variance contribution can be singled out of the model output by the characteristic frequency. Although FAST has been widely applied, there are two limitations: (1) the aliasing effect among parameters by using integer characteristic frequencies and (2) the suitability for only models with independent parameters. In this paper, we synthesize the improvement to overcome the aliasing effect limitation [Tarantola S, Gatelli D, Mara TA. Random balance designs for the estimation of first order global sensitivity indices. Reliab Eng Syst Safety 2006; 91(6):717-27] and the improvement to overcome the independence limitation [Xu C, Gertner G. Extending a global sensitivity analysis technique to models with correlated parameters. Comput Stat Data Anal 2007, accepted for publication]. In this way, FAST can be a general first-order global sensitivity analysis method for linear/nonlinear models with as many correlated/uncorrelated parameters as the user specifies. We apply the general FAST to four test cases with correlated parameters. The results show that the sensitivity indices derived by the general FAST are in good agreement with the sensitivity indices derived by the correlation ratio method, which is a non-parametric method for models with correlated parameters

Global sensitivity analysis for models with spatially dependent outputs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iooss, B.; Marrel, A.; Jullien, M.; Laurent, B.

2011-01-01

The global sensitivity analysis of a complex numerical model often calls for the estimation of variance-based importance measures, named Sobol' indices. Meta-model-based techniques have been developed in order to replace the CPU time-expensive computer code with an inexpensive mathematical function, which predicts the computer code output. The common meta-model-based sensitivity analysis methods are well suited for computer codes with scalar outputs. However, in the environmental domain, as in many areas of application, the numerical model outputs are often spatial maps, which may also vary with time. In this paper, we introduce an innovative method to obtain a spatial map of Sobol' indices with a minimal number of numerical model computations. It is based upon the functional decomposition of the spatial output onto a wavelet basis and the meta-modeling of the wavelet coefficients by the Gaussian process. An analytical example is presented to clarify the various steps of our methodology. This technique is then applied to a real hydrogeological case: for each model input variable, a spatial map of Sobol' indices is thus obtained. (authors)

Piezoresistive Cantilever Performance-Part I: Analytical Model for Sensitivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Sung-Jin; Doll, Joseph C; Pruitt, Beth L

2010-02-01

An accurate analytical model for the change in resistance of a piezoresistor is necessary for the design of silicon piezoresistive transducers. Ion implantation requires a high-temperature oxidation or annealing process to activate the dopant atoms, and this treatment results in a distorted dopant profile due to diffusion. Existing analytical models do not account for the concentration dependence of piezoresistance and are not accurate for nonuniform dopant profiles. We extend previous analytical work by introducing two nondimensional factors, namely, the efficiency and geometry factors. A practical benefit of this efficiency factor is that it separates the process parameters from the design parameters; thus, designers may address requirements for cantilever geometry and fabrication process independently. To facilitate the design process, we provide a lookup table for the efficiency factor over an extensive range of process conditions. The model was validated by comparing simulation results with the experimentally determined sensitivities of piezoresistive cantilevers. We performed 9200 TSUPREM4 simulations and fabricated 50 devices from six unique process flows; we systematically explored the design space relating process parameters and cantilever sensitivity. Our treatment focuses on piezoresistive cantilevers, but the analytical sensitivity model is extensible to other piezoresistive transducers such as membrane pressure sensors.

Piezoresistive Cantilever Performance—Part I: Analytical Model for Sensitivity

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Sung-Jin; Doll, Joseph C.; Pruitt, Beth L.

2010-01-01

An accurate analytical model for the change in resistance of a piezoresistor is necessary for the design of silicon piezoresistive transducers. Ion implantation requires a high-temperature oxidation or annealing process to activate the dopant atoms, and this treatment results in a distorted dopant profile due to diffusion. Existing analytical models do not account for the concentration dependence of piezoresistance and are not accurate for nonuniform dopant profiles. We extend previous analytical work by introducing two nondimensional factors, namely, the efficiency and geometry factors. A practical benefit of this efficiency factor is that it separates the process parameters from the design parameters; thus, designers may address requirements for cantilever geometry and fabrication process independently. To facilitate the design process, we provide a lookup table for the efficiency factor over an extensive range of process conditions. The model was validated by comparing simulation results with the experimentally determined sensitivities of piezoresistive cantilevers. We performed 9200 TSUPREM4 simulations and fabricated 50 devices from six unique process flows; we systematically explored the design space relating process parameters and cantilever sensitivity. Our treatment focuses on piezoresistive cantilevers, but the analytical sensitivity model is extensible to other piezoresistive transducers such as membrane pressure sensors. PMID:20336183

Engineering Sensitivity Improvement of Helium Mass Spectrometer Leak Detection System by Means Global Hard Vacuum Test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sigit Asmara Santa

2006-01-01

The engineering sensitivity improvement of Helium mass spectrometer leak detection using global hard vacuum test configuration has been done. The purpose of this work is to enhance the sensitivity of the current leak detection of pressurized method (sniffer method) with the sensitivity of 10 -3 ∼ 10 -5 std cm 3 /s, to the global hard vacuum test configuration method which can be achieved of up to 10 -8 std cm 3 /s. The goal of this research and development is to obtain a Helium leak test configuration which is suitable and can be used as routine bases in the quality control tests of FPM capsule and AgInCd safety control rod products. The result is an additional instrumented vacuum tube connected with conventional Helium mass spectrometer. The pressure and temperature of the test object during the leak measurement are simulated by means of a 4.1 kW capacity heater and Helium injection to test object, respectively. The addition of auxiliary mechanical vacuum pump of 2.4 l/s pumping speed which is directly connected to the vacuum tube, will reduce 86 % of evacuation time. The reduction of the measured sensitivity due to the auxiliary mechanical vacuum pump can be overcome by shutting off the pump soon after Helium mass spectrometer reaches its operating pressure condition. (author)

Model-Based Security Testing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ina Schieferdecker

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Security testing aims at validating software system requirements related to security properties like confidentiality, integrity, authentication, authorization, availability, and non-repudiation. Although security testing techniques are available for many years, there has been little approaches that allow for specification of test cases at a higher level of abstraction, for enabling guidance on test identification and specification as well as for automated test generation. Model-based security testing (MBST is a relatively new field and especially dedicated to the systematic and efficient specification and documentation of security test objectives, security test cases and test suites, as well as to their automated or semi-automated generation. In particular, the combination of security modelling and test generation approaches is still a challenge in research and of high interest for industrial applications. MBST includes e.g. security functional testing, model-based fuzzing, risk- and threat-oriented testing, and the usage of security test patterns. This paper provides a survey on MBST techniques and the related models as well as samples of new methods and tools that are under development in the European ITEA2-project DIAMONDS.

Modeling Canadian Quality Control Test Program for Steroid Hormone Receptors in Breast Cancer: Diagnostic Accuracy Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez, Teresa; Makrestsov, Nikita; Garatt, John; Torlakovic, Emina; Gilks, C Blake; Mallett, Susan

The Canadian Immunohistochemistry Quality Control program monitors clinical laboratory performance for estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor tests used in breast cancer treatment management in Canada. Current methods assess sensitivity and specificity at each time point, compared with a reference standard. We investigate alternative performance analysis methods to enhance the quality assessment. We used 3 methods of analysis: meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity of each laboratory across all time points; sensitivity and specificity at each time point for each laboratory; and fitting models for repeated measurements to examine differences between laboratories adjusted by test and time point. Results show 88 laboratories participated in quality control at up to 13 time points using typically 37 to 54 histology samples. In meta-analysis across all time points no laboratories have sensitivity or specificity below 80%. Current methods, presenting sensitivity and specificity separately for each run, result in wide 95% confidence intervals, typically spanning 15% to 30%. Models of a single diagnostic outcome demonstrated that 82% to 100% of laboratories had no difference to reference standard for estrogen receptor and 75% to 100% for progesterone receptor, with the exception of 1 progesterone receptor run. Laboratories with significant differences to reference standard identified with Generalized Estimating Equation modeling also have reduced performance by meta-analysis across all time points. The Canadian Immunohistochemistry Quality Control program has a good design, and with this modeling approach has sufficient precision to measure performance at each time point and allow laboratories with a significantly lower performance to be targeted for advice.

Contextual and behavioral control of antipsychotic sensitization induced by haloperidol and olanzapine

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Zhang, Chen; Li, Ming

2011-01-01

Repeated administration of haloperidol and olanzapine causes a progressively enhanced disruption of conditioned avoidance response (CAR) and a progressively enhanced inhibition of phencyclidine (PCP)-induced hyperlocomotion in rats (termed antipsychotic sensitization). Both actions are thought to reflect intrinsic antipsychotic activity. The present study examined to the extent to which antipsychotic-induced sensitization in one model (e.g. CAR) can be transferred or maintained in another (e.g. PCP hyperlocomotion) as a means of investigating the contextual and behavioral controls of antipsychotic sensitization. Well-trained male Sprague-Dawley rats were first repeatedly tested in the CAR or PCP (3.2 mg/kg, sc) hyperlocomotion model under haloperidol or olanzapine for five consecutive days. Then they were switched to the other model and tested for the expression of sensitization. Finally, all rats were switched back to the original model and retested for the expression of sensitization. Repeated haloperidol or olanzapine treatment progressively disrupted avoidance responding and decreased PCP-induced hyperlocomotion, indicating a robust sensitization. When tested in a different model, rats previously treated with haloperidol or olanzapine did not show a stronger inhibition of CAR or PCP-induced hyperlocomotion than those treated with these drugs for the first time; however, they did show such an effect when tested in the original model in which they received repeated antipsychotic treatment. These findings suggest that the expression of antipsychotic sensitization is strongly influenced by the testing environment and/or selected behavioral response under certain experimental conditions. Distinct contextual cues and behavioral responses may enter an association with unconditional drug effects via a Pavlovian conditioning process. They may also serve as occasion-setters to modulate the expression of sensitized responses. Because antipsychotic sensitization mimics

Contextual and behavioral control of antipsychotic sensitization induced by haloperidol and olanzapine.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Chen; Li, Ming

2012-02-01

Repeated administration of haloperidol (HAL) and olanzapine (OLZ) causes a progressively enhanced disruption of the conditioned avoidance response (CAR) and a progressively enhanced inhibition of phencyclidine (PCP)-induced hyperlocomotion in rats (termed antipsychotic sensitization). Both actions are thought to reflect intrinsic antipsychotic activity. The present study examined the extent to which antipsychotic-induced sensitization in one model (e.g. CAR) can be transferred or maintained in another (e.g. PCP hyperlocomotion) as a means of investigating the contextual and behavioral controls of antipsychotic sensitization. Well-trained male Sprague-Dawley rats were first repeatedly tested in the CAR or the PCP (3.2 mg/kg, subcutaneously) hyperlocomotion model under HAL or OLZ for 5 consecutive days. Then they were switched to the other model and tested for the expression of sensitization. Finally, all rats were switched back to the original model and retested for the expression of sensitization. Repeated HAL or OLZ treatment progressively disrupted avoidance responding and decreased PCP-induced hyperlocomotion, indicating a robust sensitization. When tested in a different model, rats previously treated with HAL or OLZ did not show a stronger inhibition of CAR-induced or PCP-induced hyperlocomotion than those treated with these drugs for the first time; however, they did show such an effect when tested in the original model in which they received repeated antipsychotic treatment. These findings suggest that the expression of antipsychotic sensitization is strongly influenced by the testing environment and/or selected behavioral response under certain experimental conditions. Distinct contextual cues and behavioral responses may develop an association with unconditional drug effects through a Pavlovian conditioning process. They may also serve as occasion setters to modulate the expression of sensitized responses. As antipsychotic sensitization mimics the clinical

Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell Engineering Model Powerplant. Test Report: Benchmark Tests in Three Spatial Orientations

Science.gov (United States)

Loyselle, Patricia; Prokopius, Kevin

2011-01-01

Proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell technology is the leading candidate to replace the aging alkaline fuel cell technology, currently used on the Shuttle, for future space missions. This test effort marks the final phase of a 5-yr development program that began under the Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Program, transitioned into the Next Generation Launch Technologies (NGLT) Program, and continued under Constellation Systems in the Exploration Technology Development Program. Initially, the engineering model (EM) powerplant was evaluated with respect to its performance as compared to acceptance tests carried out at the manufacturer. This was to determine the sensitivity of the powerplant performance to changes in test environment. In addition, a series of tests were performed with the powerplant in the original standard orientation. This report details the continuing EM benchmark test results in three spatial orientations as well as extended duration testing in the mission profile test. The results from these tests verify the applicability of PEM fuel cells for future NASA missions. The specifics of these different tests are described in the following sections.

ADGEN: a system for automated sensitivity analysis of predictive models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pin, F.G.; Horwedel, J.E.; Oblow, E.M.; Lucius, J.L.

1987-01-01

A system that can automatically enhance computer codes with a sensitivity calculation capability is presented. With this new system, named ADGEN, rapid and cost-effective calculation of sensitivities can be performed in any FORTRAN code for all input data or parameters. The resulting sensitivities can be used in performance assessment studies related to licensing or interactions with the public to systematically and quantitatively prove the relative importance of each of the system parameters in calculating the final performance results. A general procedure calling for the systematic use of sensitivities in assessment studies is presented. The procedure can be used in modeling and model validation studies to avoid over modeling, in site characterization planning to avoid over collection of data, and in performance assessments to determine the uncertainties on the final calculated results. The added capability to formally perform the inverse problem, i.e., to determine the input data or parameters on which to focus to determine the input data or parameters on which to focus additional research or analysis effort in order to improve the uncertainty of the final results, is also discussed. 7 references, 2 figures

Perception of basic tastes and threshold sensitivity during testing of selected judges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Zajác

Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false SK JA X-NONE The sense of taste is one of the most important human senses. Alteration in taste perception can greately interfere to our lives, because it influences our dietary habits and consequently general human health. Many physiological and external factors can cause the loss of taste perception. These factors include for example certain diseases, the side effect of the use of certain medicaments, head trauma, gender, dietary habbits, smoking, role of saliva, age, stress and many more. In this paper we are discussing perception of basic tastes and treshold sensitivity during testing of selected groupe of 500 sensory judges. A resolution taste test and sensitivity treshold test were performed using basic tastes (sour, bitter, salty, sweet, umami, astringent, metallic. We have found that the perception of basic tastes decreese with human age. Smoking leads to significant errors in the determination of basic tastes. Different mistakes occures in different age categories. This study suggests further researches, investigating various factors influencing taste perception.  doi:10.5219/259

Modelling sensitivity and uncertainty in a LCA model for waste management systems - EASETECH

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Damgaard, Anders; Clavreul, Julie; Baumeister, Hubert

2013-01-01

In the new model, EASETECH, developed for LCA modelling of waste management systems, a general approach for sensitivity and uncertainty assessment for waste management studies has been implemented. First general contribution analysis is done through a regular interpretation of inventory and impact...

Food Sensitivity in Children with Acute Urticaria in Skin Prick Test: Single Center Experience

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hatice Eke Gungor