WorldWideScience

Sample records for model runs meteorology

  1. Mathematical problems in meteorological modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Csomós, Petra; Faragó, István; Horányi, András; Szépszó, Gabriella

    2016-01-01

    This book deals with mathematical problems arising in the context of meteorological modelling. It gathers and presents some of the most interesting and important issues from the interaction of mathematics and meteorology. It is unique in that it features contributions on topics like data assimilation, ensemble prediction, numerical methods, and transport modelling, from both mathematical and meteorological perspectives. The derivation and solution of all kinds of numerical prediction models require the application of results from various mathematical fields. The present volume is divided into three parts, moving from mathematical and numerical problems through air quality modelling, to advanced applications in data assimilation and probabilistic forecasting. The book arose from the workshop “Mathematical Problems in Meteorological Modelling” held in Budapest in May 2014 and organized by the ECMI Special Interest Group on Numerical Weather Prediction. Its main objective is to highlight the beauty of the de...

  2. Meteorological Uncertainty of atmospheric Dispersion model results (MUD)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Amstrup, Bjarne; Feddersen, Henrik

    The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario...... of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological obser-vations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observa-tional data, an ensemble of meteorological forecasts is produced....... However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent uncertainties...

  3. Meteorological Uncertainty of atmospheric Dispersion model results (MUD)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Amstrup, Bjarne; Feddersen, Henrik

    The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the ‘most likely...... uncertainties of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological observations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing e.g. the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observational data, an ensemble......’ dispersion scenario. However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for long-range atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent...

  4. Meteorological Modeling of a Houston Ozone Episode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen-Gammon, J. W.

    2002-12-01

    The State of Texas requires accurate meteorological simulations of a Houston-Galveston ozone episode to drive their photochemical model for regulatory purposes. The episode of greatest interest occurred during TexAQS-2000, so there is an unusually large amount of data available for driving and validating the simulation. The key meteorological process to simulate is the sea breeze. In the Houston area, this sea breeze takes two forms, both of which typically occur on a summertime day. The first form is the sea breeze front, which forms along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and Galveston Bay if the midday winds are light or offshore and travels inland during the afternoon and early evening. The second form is an inertia-gravity wave response of unusually large amplitude and horizontal scale, due to Houston's proximity to 30 N. It manifests itself as a steady rotation of the wind, superimposed on the background flow, with an amplitude of 2-3 m/s. The MM5 (v3.4) model characteristics were tailored to simulate this phenomenon. Over 20 vertical levels were located in the lowest 300 mb. The soil moisture availability was adjusted according to rainfall prior to and during the event so that the model simulated a reasonably accurate land-sea and urban-rural temperature contrast. A planetary boundary layer scheme was chosen to produce lower atmospheric structures similar to those observed in special soundings. To further increase the agreement between the model and observed fields, data from five profilers and one Doppler lidar were assimilated into the simulation. Assimilation parameters were chosen to provide a large impact on the large-scale, slowly-varying winds while allowing the smaller-scale sea breeze front and other such phenomena to evolve according to the internal dynamics of the model. The assimilation was essential for compelling the model to capture a nighttime low-level jet that was present during part of the episode and which the unassimilated model runs were

  5. Sparse canopy parameterizations for meteorological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hurk, van den B.J.J.M.

    1996-01-01

    Meteorological models for numerical weather prediction or climate simulation require a description of land surface exchange processes. The degree of complexity of these land-surface parameterization schemes - or SVAT's - that is necessary for accurate model predictions, is yet unclear. Also, the

  6. Meteorological and Chemical Urban Scale Modelling for Shanghai Metropolitan Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahura, Alexander; Nuterman, Roman; Gonzalez-Aparicio, Iratxe; Amstrup, Bjarne; Yang, Xiaohua; Baklanov, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    Urban air pollution is a serious problem in megacities and major industrial agglomerations of China. Therefore, air quality information is important for public. In particular, the Shanghai metropolitan area is well known as megacity having severe air pollution episodes. The Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model) is applied for on-line integrated meteorology and atmospheric composition forecasting for the Shanghai region of China. The model setup includes the urban Building Effects Parameterization module, describing different types of urban districts with its own morphological and aerodynamical characteristics. The model is running in downscaling chain from regional-to-urban scales for selected periods in summer and winter having both elevated pollution levels as well as unfavorable meteorological conditions. For these periods, the effects of urbanization are analyzed for spatio-temporal variability of atmospheric and chemical/aerosols patterns. The formation and development of meteorological (air and surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, cloud cover, boundary layer height) and chemical/aerosol patterns (concentration and deposition) due to influence of the metropolitan area is evaluated. The impact of Shanghai region on regional-to-urban scales as well as relationship between air pollution and meteorology are estimated.

  7. Modeling meteorological forcing of snowcover in forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellstrom, Robert Ake

    2000-11-01

    The architectural properties of a forest are known to modify significantly meteorological forcing of snowcover. Current numerical snow models utilize a wide range of vegetation representations that limit their application to particular biomes or for basic research on specialized problems. Most do not explicitly represent the combined effects of the canopy on processes of mass and energy transfer beneath the canopy. This project develops forest canopy sub-models that estimate the below-canopy solar and longwave irradiance, wind speed, and accumulation of precipitation, based on meteorological measurements above the canopy and parameters of forest architecture. The wind and solar radiation sub-model predictions were independently compared with meteorological observations at deciduous and coniferous sites in the snowbelt region of northern Michigan. The solar radiation and wind models required adjustments to match sub-canopy measurements. The primary experiment compared the simulations and measurements of snow depth for eight modified versions of the Utah Energy Balance (UEB) snow model during the 1998-99 snowcover season at the two forest sites and a near-by open site. Independent inclusion of each sub-model and a new stability scheme in the UEB model revealed significant sensitivity of modeled snow depth to stability and each of the four processes estimated by the sub-models. The original UEB model uses a simple forest canopy parameterization that does not consider precipitation interception. Comparison of the original and modified UEB models significantly improved simulations of snow depth at the open and coniferous sites, but performance was slightly worse for a leafless deciduous site. Unlike the modified model, the analysis suggests that the original model produces inconsistent results, which reduces its potential for application to different biomes. Results suggest that opposing processes of energy and mass exchange tend to moderate meteorological forcing

  8. Modelling surface run-off and trends analysis over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, P. K.; Chauhan, S.; Oza, M. P.

    2016-08-01

    The present study is mainly concerned with detecting the trend of run-off over the mainland of India, during a time period of 35 years, from 1971-2005 (May-October). Rainfall, soil texture, land cover types, slope, etc., were processed and run-off modelling was done using the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) model with modifications and cell size of 5×5 km. The slope and antecedent moisture corrections were incorporated in the existing model. Trend analysis of estimated run-off was done by taking into account different analysis windows such as cell, medium and major river basins, meteorological sub-divisions and elevation zones across India. It was estimated that out of the average 1012.5 mm of rainfall over India (considering the study period of 35 years), 33.8% got converted to surface run-off. An exponential model was developed between the rainfall and the run-off that predicted the run-off with an R 2 of 0.97 and RMSE of 8.31 mm. The run-off trend analysed using the Mann-Kendall test revealed that a significant pattern exists in 22 medium, two major river basins and three meteorological sub-divisions, while there was no evidence of a statistically significant trend in the elevation zones. Among the medium river basins, the highest positive rate of change in the run-off was observed in the Kameng basin (13.6 mm/yr), while the highest negative trend was observed in the Tista upstream basin (-21.4 mm/yr). Changes in run-off provide valuable information for understanding the region's sensitivity to climatic variability.

  9. High Resolution Modelling of Aerosols-Meteorology Interactions over Northern Europe and Arctic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahura, Alexander; Nuterman, Roman; Baklanov, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    Aerosols have influence on weather, air quality and climate. Multi-scale modelling, and especially long-range atmospheric transport, dispersion, and deposition of aerosols from remote sources is especially challenging in northern latitudes. It is due to complexity of meteorological, chemical and biological processes, their interactions and especially within and above the surface layer, linking to climate change, and influence on ecosystems. The online integrated meteorology-chemistry-aerosols model Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model) was employed for evaluating spatio-temporal variability of atmospheric aerosols and their interactions and effects on meteorology with a focus on the Northern Europe and Arctic regions. The model setup covers domain having 510 x 568 grids of latitude vs. longitude, horizontal resolution of 0.15 deg, 40 vertical hybrid levels, time step of 360 sec, 6 h meteorological surface data assimilation. The model was run for January and July-August 2010 at DMI's CRAY-XC30 supercomputer. Emissions used are anthropogenic (ECLIPSE v5), shipping (combined AU_RCP and FMI), wildfires (IS4FIRES), and interactive sea salt, dust and DMS. The boundary conditions were obtained from ECMWF: for meteorology (from IFS at 0.15 and 0.25 deg. for summer and winter, respectively) and atmospheric composition (from MACC Reanalysis at 1.125 deg. resolution). The Enviro-HIRLAM model was employed in 4 modes: the reference run (e.g. without aerosols influence on meteorology) and 3 modified runs (direct aerosol effect (DAE), indirect aerosol effect (IDAE), and both effects DAE and IDAE included). The differences between the reference run and the runs with mentioned aerosol effects were estimated on a day-by-day, monthly and diurnal cycle bases over the domain, Arctic areas, European and Nordic countries. The results of statistical analyses are summarized and presented.

  10. Modelling surface run-off and trends analysis over India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    P K Gupta; S Chauhan; M P Oza

    2016-08-01

    The present study is mainly concerned with detecting the trend of run-off over the mainland of India, during a time period of 35 years, from 1971–2005 May–October). Rainfall, soil texture, land cover types, slope, etc., were processed and run-off modelling was done using the Natural Resources ConservationService (NRCS) model with modifications and cell size of 5×5 km. The slope and antecedent moisture corrections were incorporated in the existing model. Trend analysis of estimated run-off was done by taking into account different analysis windows such as cell, medium and major river basins, meteorologicalsub-divisions and elevation zones across India. It was estimated that out of the average 1012.5 mm of rainfall over India (considering the study period of 35 years), 33.8% got converted to surface run-off. An exponential model was developed between the rainfall and the run-off that predicted the run-off with an $R^2$ of 0.97 and RMSE of 8.31 mm. The run-off trend analysed using the Mann–Kendall test revealed that a significant pattern exists in 22 medium, two major river basins and three meteorological subdivisions, while there was no evidence of a statistically significant trend in the elevation zones. Among the medium river basins, the highest positive rate of change in the run-off was observed in the Kameng basin (13.6 mm/yr), while the highest negative trend was observed in the Tista upstream basin (−21.4 mm/yr). Changes in run-off provide valuable information for understanding the region’s sensitivity to climatic variability.

  11. Gravitational Baryogenesis in Running Vacuum models

    CERN Document Server

    Oikonomou, V K; Nunes, Rafael C

    2016-01-01

    We study the gravitational baryogenesis mechanism for generating baryon asymmetry in the context of running vacuum models. Regardless if these models can produce a viable cosmological evolution, we demonstrate that they produce a non-zero baryon-to-entropy ratio even if the Universe is filled with conformal matter. This is a sound difference between the running vacuum gravitational baryogenesis and the Einstein-Hilbert one, since in the latter case, the predicted baryon-to-entropy ratio is zero. We consider two running vacuum models and show that the resulting baryon-to-entropy ratio is compatible with the observational data.

  12. A Spatial Lattice Model Applied for Meteorological Visualization and Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingyue Lu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Meteorological information has obvious spatial-temporal characteristics. Although it is meaningful to employ a geographic information system (GIS to visualize and analyze the meteorological information for better identification and forecasting of meteorological weather so as to reduce the meteorological disaster loss, modeling meteorological information based on a GIS is still difficult because meteorological elements generally have no stable shape or clear boundary. To date, there are still few GIS models that can satisfy the requirements of both meteorological visualization and analysis. In this article, a spatial lattice model based on sampling particles is proposed to support both the representation and analysis of meteorological information. In this model, a spatial sampling particle is regarded as the basic element that contains the meteorological information, and the location where the particle is placed with the time mark. The location information is generally represented using a point. As these points can be extended to a surface in two dimensions and a voxel in three dimensions, if these surfaces and voxels can occupy a certain space, then this space can be represented using these spatial sampling particles with their point locations and meteorological information. In this case, the full meteorological space can then be represented by arranging numerous particles with their point locations in a certain structure and resolution, i.e., the spatial lattice model, and extended at a higher resolution when necessary. For practical use, the meteorological space is logically classified into three types of spaces, namely the projection surface space, curved surface space, and stereoscopic space, and application-oriented spatial lattice models with different organization forms of spatial sampling particles are designed to support the representation, inquiry, and analysis of meteorological information within the three types of surfaces. Cases

  13. A luminosity model of RHIC gold runs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, S.Y.

    2011-11-01

    In this note, we present a luminosity model for RHIC gold runs. The model is applied to the physics fills in 2007 run without cooling, and with the longitudinal cooling applied to one beam only. Having good comparison, the model is used to project a fill with the longitudinal cooling applied to both beams. Further development and possible applications of the model are discussed. To maximize the integrated luminosity, usually the higher beam intensity, smaller longitudinal and transverse emittance, and smaller {beta} are the directions to work on. In past 10 years, the RHIC gold runs have demonstrated a path toward this goal. Most recently, a successful commissioning of the bunched beam stochastic cooling, both longitudinal and transverse, has offered a chance of further RHIC luminosity improvement. With so many factors involved, a luminosity model would be useful to identify and project gains in the machine development. In this article, a preliminary model is proposed. In Section 2, several secondary factors, which are not yet included in the model, are identified based on the RHIC operation condition and experience in current runs. In Section 3, the RHIC beam store parameters used in the model are listed, and validated. In Section 4, the factors included in the model are discussed, and the luminosity model is presented. In Section 5, typical RHIC gold fills without cooling, and with partial cooling are used for comparison with the model. Then a projection of fills with more coolings is shown. In Section 6, further development of the model is discussed.

  14. Investigating the Propagation of Meteorological Model Uncertainty for Tracer Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez-Coto, I.; Ghosh, S.; Karion, A.; Martin, C.; Mueller, K. L.; Prasad, K.; Whetstone, J. R.

    2016-12-01

    The North-East Corridor project aims to use a top-down inversion method to quantify sources of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in the urban areas of Washington DC and Baltimore at approximately 1km2 resolutions. The aim of this project is to help establish reliable measurement methods for quantifying and validating GHG emissions independently of the inventory methods typically used to guide mitigation efforts. Since inversion methods depend strongly on atmospheric transport modeling, analyzing the uncertainties on the meteorological fields and their propagation through the sensitivities of observations to surface fluxes (footprints) is a fundamental step. To this end, six configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) version 3.8 were used to generate an ensemble of meteorological simulations. Specifically, we used 4 planetary boundary layer parameterizations (YSU, MYNN2, BOULAC, QNSE), 2 sources of initial and boundary conditions (NARR and HRRR) and 1 configuration including the building energy parameterization (BEP) urban canopy model. The simulations were compared with more than 150 meteorological surface stations, a wind profiler and radiosondes for a month (February) in 2016 to account for the uncertainties and the ensemble spread for wind speed, direction and mixing height. In addition, we used the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model (STILT) to derive the sensitivity of 12 hypothetical observations to surface emissions (footprints) with each WRF configuration. The footprints and integrated sensitivities were compared and the resulting uncertainties estimated.

  15. A FEDERATED PARTNERSHIP FOR URBAN METEOROLOGICAL AND AIR QUALITY MODELING

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recently, applications of urban meteorological and air quality models have been performed at resolutions on the order of km grid sizes. This necessitated development and incorporation of high resolution landcover data and additional boundary layer parameters that serve to descri...

  16. Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreher, Joseph G.

    2009-01-01

    For expedience in delivering dispersion guidance in the diversity of operational situations, National Weather Service Melbourne (MLB) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are becoming increasingly reliant on the PC-based version of the HYSPLIT model run through a graphical user interface (GUI). While the GUI offers unique advantages when compared to traditional methods, it is difficult for forecasters to run and manage in an operational environment. To alleviate the difficulty in providing scheduled real-time trajectory and concentration guidance, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) configured a Linux version of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) (HYSPLIT) model that ingests the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) guidance, such as the North American Mesoscale (NAM) and the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) models. The AMU configured the HYSPLIT system to automatically download the NCEP model products, convert the meteorological grids into HYSPLIT binary format, run the model from several pre-selected latitude/longitude sites, and post-process the data to create output graphics. In addition, the AMU configured several software programs to convert local Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model output into HYSPLIT format.

  17. Numerical Modelling of Wave Run-Up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramirez, Jorge Robert Rodriguez; Frigaard, Peter; Andersen, Thomas Lykke;

    2011-01-01

    Wave loads are important in problems related to offshore structure, such as wave run-up, slamming. The computation of such wave problems are carried out by CFD models. This paper presents one model, NS3, which solve 3D Navier-Stokes equations and use Volume of Fluid (VOF) method to treat the free...

  18. Numerical Modelling of Wave Run-Up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramirez, Jorge Robert Rodriguez; Frigaard, Peter; Andersen, Thomas Lykke

    2011-01-01

    Wave loads are important in problems related to offshore structure, such as wave run-up, slamming. The computation of such wave problems are carried out by CFD models. This paper presents one model, NS3, which solve 3D Navier-Stokes equations and use Volume of Fluid (VOF) method to treat the free...

  19. Meteorological fluid dynamics asymptotic modelling, stability and chaotic atmospheric motion

    CERN Document Server

    Zeytounian, Radyadour K

    1991-01-01

    The author considers meteorology as a part of fluid dynamics. He tries to derive the properties of atmospheric flows from a rational analysis of the Navier-Stokes equations, at the same time analyzing various types of initial and boundary problems. This approach to simulate nature by models from fluid dynamics will be of interest to both scientists and students of physics and theoretical meteorology.

  20. Future meteorological drought: projections of regional climate models for Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagge, James; Tallaksen, Lena; Rizzi, Jonathan

    2015-04-01

    In response to the major European drought events of the last decade, projecting future drought frequency and severity in a non-stationary climate is a major concern for Europe. Prior drought studies have identified regional hotspots in the Mediterranean and Eastern European regions, but have otherwise produced conflicting results with regard to future drought severity. Some of this disagreement is likely related to the relatively coarse resolution of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and regional averaging, which tends to smooth extremes. This study makes use of the most current Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced with CMIP5 climate projections to quantify the projected change in meteorological drought for Europe during the next century at a fine, gridded scale. Meteorological drought is quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which normalize accumulated precipitation and climatic water balance anomaly, respectively, for a specific location and time of year. By comparing projections for these two indices, the importance of precipitation deficits can be contrasted with the importance of evapotranspiration increases related to temperature changes. Climate projections are based on output from CORDEX (the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment), which provides high resolution regional downscaled climate scenarios that have been extensively tested for numerous regions around the globe, including Europe. SPI and SPEI are then calculated on a gridded scale at a spatial resolution of either 0.44 degrees (~50 km) or 0.11 degrees (~12.5km) for the three projected emission pathways (rcp26, rcp45, rcp85). Analysis is divided into two major sections: first validating the models with respect to observed historical trends in meteorological drought from 1970-2005 and then comparing drought severity and frequency during three future time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) to the

  1. Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartholmes

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of analysing the coupling of meteorological meso-scale quantitative precipitation forecasts with distributed rainfall-runoff models to extend the forecasting horizon. Traditionally, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff models have been used for real time flood forecasting. More recently, increased computer capabilities allow the utilisation of distributed hydrological models with mesh sizes from tenths of metres to a few kilometres. On the other hand, meteorological models, providing the quantitative precipitation forecast, tend to produce average values on meshes ranging from slightly less than 10 to 200 kilometres. Therefore, to improve the quality of flood forecasts, the effects of coupling the meteorological and the hydrological models at different scales were analysed. A distributed hydrological model (TOPKAPI was developed and calibrated using a 1x1 km mesh for the case of the river Po closed at Ponte Spessa (catchment area c. 37000 km2. The model was then coupled with several other European meteorological models ranging from the Limited Area Models (provided by DMI and DWD with resolutions from 0.0625° * 0.0625°, to the ECMWF ensemble predictions with a resolution of 1.85° * 1.85°. Interesting results, describing the coupled model behaviour, are available for a meteorological extreme event in Northern Italy (Nov. 1994. The results demonstrate the poor reliability of the quantitative precipitation forecasts produced by meteorological models presently available; this is not resolved using the Ensemble Forecasting technique, when compared with results obtainable with measured rainfall.

  2. Impact of inherent meteorology uncertainty on air quality model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    It is well established that there are a number of different classifications and sources of uncertainties in environmental modeling systems. Air quality models rely on two key inputs, namely, meteorology and emissions. When using air quality models for decision making, it is impor...

  3. Constructing predictive models of human running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maus, Horst-Moritz; Revzen, Shai; Guckenheimer, John; Ludwig, Christian; Reger, Johann; Seyfarth, Andre

    2015-02-06

    Running is an essential mode of human locomotion, during which ballistic aerial phases alternate with phases when a single foot contacts the ground. The spring-loaded inverted pendulum (SLIP) provides a starting point for modelling running, and generates ground reaction forces that resemble those of the centre of mass (CoM) of a human runner. Here, we show that while SLIP reproduces within-step kinematics of the CoM in three dimensions, it fails to reproduce stability and predict future motions. We construct SLIP control models using data-driven Floquet analysis, and show how these models may be used to obtain predictive models of human running with six additional states comprising the position and velocity of the swing-leg ankle. Our methods are general, and may be applied to any rhythmic physical system. We provide an approach for identifying an event-driven linear controller that approximates an observed stabilization strategy, and for producing a reduced-state model which closely recovers the observed dynamics. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  4. Running vacuum cosmological models: linear scalar perturbations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perico, E. L. D.; Tamayo, D. A.

    2017-08-01

    In cosmology, phenomenologically motivated expressions for running vacuum are commonly parameterized as linear functions typically denoted by Λ(H2) or Λ(R). Such models assume an equation of state for the vacuum given by bar PΛ = - bar rhoΛ, relating its background pressure bar PΛ with its mean energy density bar rhoΛ ≡ Λ/8πG. This equation of state suggests that the vacuum dynamics is due to an interaction with the matter content of the universe. Most of the approaches studying the observational impact of these models only consider the interaction between the vacuum and the transient dominant matter component of the universe. We extend such models by assuming that the running vacuum is the sum of independent contributions, namely bar rhoΛ = Σibar rhoΛi. Each Λ i vacuum component is associated and interacting with one of the i matter components in both the background and perturbation levels. We derive the evolution equations for the linear scalar vacuum and matter perturbations in those two scenarios, and identify the running vacuum imprints on the cosmic microwave background anisotropies as well as on the matter power spectrum. In the Λ(H2) scenario the vacuum is coupled with every matter component, whereas the Λ(R) description only leads to a coupling between vacuum and non-relativistic matter, producing different effects on the matter power spectrum.

  5. Comparative analysis of meteorological performance of coupled chemistry-meteorology models in the context of AQMEII phase 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Air pollution simulations critically depend on the quality of the underlying meteorology. In phase 2 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII-2), thirteen modeling groups from Europe and four groups from North America operating eight different regional...

  6. Importance of temporal resolution of meteorological forcings for physics-based snow modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohrabi, M.; Benjankar, R. M.; Kumar, M.; Marks, D. G.; Kormos, P.; Tonina, D.

    2015-12-01

    In alpine regions, snow delays hydrological responses to precipitation and controls initiation and length of the growing season. Therefore, precise simulations of snow accumulation and melt are crucial for understanding hydrological dynamics and predicting hydrologic response from watersheds. These predictions are important for water resource management and for ecological studies of vegetation distribution, growth and for wildlife habitat. Snow models require fine temporal resolution of meteorological inputs to capture diurnal changes. However, lack of meteorological data at fine-temporal resolution may force the use of coarser than hourly data. The objective of this work is to understand what sort of information can be lost over the watershed depending on the temporal resolution of meteorological inputs, for a range of hydroclimatic and topographic conditions. To address this goal, a spatially distributed and physics-based snow model (iSnobal) was run using 1-, 3- and 6-hourly meteorological inputs for a wet, average and a dry year over Boise River Basin (BRB), Idaho, USA. Simulated snow variables such as Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) and Surface Water Input (SWI - melt draining from the snowcover plus rain on bare ground) were averaged over 3 elevation bands including rain dominated (≤1400m), rain-snow transition (>1400 and ≤1900m) and snow dominated (>1900m). Except at the rain dominated band, using 6-hr inputs causes considerable overestimation of SWE and SWI, particularly in the wet year. The results show that at the rain-snow transition and snow dominated bands at least 3-hr meteorological data are necessary for snow modeling, due to strong diurnal changes in meteorological variables at these elevations. However, using course temporal resolution data for the rain dominated band made only a small difference in results.

  7. Application of nonlinear forecasting techniques for meteorological modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Pérez-Muñuzuri

    Full Text Available A nonlinear forecasting method was used to predict the behavior of a cloud coverage time series several hours in advance. The method is based on the reconstruction of a chaotic strange attractor using four years of cloud absorption data obtained from half-hourly Meteosat infrared images from Northwestern Spain. An exhaustive nonlinear analysis of the time series was carried out to reconstruct the phase space of the underlying chaotic attractor. The forecast values are used by a non-hydrostatic meteorological model ARPS for daily weather prediction and their results compared with surface temperature measurements from a meteorological station and a vertical sounding. The effect of noise in the time series is analyzed in terms of the prediction results.

    Key words: Meterology and atmospheric dynamics (mesoscale meteorology; general – General (new fields

  8. Quantitative assessment of meteorological and tropospheric Zenith Hydrostatic Delay models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Di; Guo, Jiming; Chen, Ming; Shi, Junbo; Zhou, Lv

    2016-09-01

    Tropospheric delay has always been an important issue in GNSS/DORIS/VLBI/InSAR processing. Most commonly used empirical models for the determination of tropospheric Zenith Hydrostatic Delay (ZHD), including three meteorological models and two empirical ZHD models, are carefully analyzed in this paper. Meteorological models refer to UNB3m, GPT2 and GPT2w, while ZHD models include Hopfield and Saastamoinen. By reference to in-situ meteorological measurements and ray-traced ZHD values of 91 globally distributed radiosonde sites, over a four-years period from 2010 to 2013, it is found that there is strong correlation between errors of model-derived values and latitudes. Specifically, the Saastamoinen model shows a systematic error of about -3 mm. Therefore a modified Saastamoinen model is developed based on the "best average" refractivity constant, and is validated by radiosonde data. Among different models, the GPT2w and the modified Saastamoinen model perform the best. ZHD values derived from their combination have a mean bias of -0.1 mm and a mean RMS of 13.9 mm. Limitations of the present models are discussed and suggestions for further improvements are given.

  9. Coupling of high-resolution meteorological and wave models over southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Bertotti

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of RISKMED project, three different high-resolution limited area meteorological models (BOLAM, MOLOCH and WRF have been run over southern Italy for the retrospective analysis of three case studies characterized by strong winds and severe wave conditions in the Ionian, southern Adriatic and southern Tyrrhenian seas. All the models were able to reproduce the main meteorological features of each event.

    The wind fields simulated by the meteorological models and those provided by the ECMWF analysis have been ingested into a wave model (WAM for the hindcast of the main wave parameters. The results have been compared with the observations of three buoys whose measurements were available in the area of interest.

    A remarkable improvement in the representation of the significant wave height came out using the limited area model data with respect to the simulations where the ECMWF analyses were used as forcing. Among the limited area models, the BOLAM-MOLOCH modelling system provided slightly better performances. From the limited set of simulations, the different model predictions came out closer to each other and more skilful in areas where the waves approach the coastline perpendicularly from the open sea.

  10. Meteorological and air pollution modeling for an urban airport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swan, P. R.; Lee, I. Y.

    1980-01-01

    Results are presented of numerical experiments modeling meteorology, multiple pollutant sources, and nonlinear photochemical reactions for the case of an airport in a large urban area with complex terrain. A planetary boundary-layer model which predicts the mixing depth and generates wind, moisture, and temperature fields was used; it utilizes only surface and synoptic boundary conditions as input data. A version of the Hecht-Seinfeld-Dodge chemical kinetics model is integrated with a new, rapid numerical technique; both the San Francisco Bay Area Air Quality Management District source inventory and the San Jose Airport aircraft inventory are utilized. The air quality model results are presented in contour plots; the combined results illustrate that the highly nonlinear interactions which are present require that the chemistry and meteorology be considered simultaneously to make a valid assessment of the effects of individual sources on regional air quality.

  11. Development of Rainfall Model using Meteorological Data for Hydrological Use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Adib Mohammad Razi

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract At present, research on forecasting unpredictable weather such as heavy rainfall is one of the most important challenges for equipped meteorological center. In addition, the incidence of significant weather events is estimated to rise in the near future due to climate change, and this situation inspires more studies to be done. This study introduces a rainfall model that has been developed using selected rainfall parameters with the aim to recognize rainfall depth in a catchment area. This study proposes a rainfall model that utilizes the amount of rainfall, temperature, humidity and pressure records taken from selected stations in Peninsular Malaysia and they are analyzed using SPSS multiple regression model. Seven meteorological stations are selected for data collection from 1997 until 2007 in Peninsular Malaysia which are Senai, Kuantan, Melaka, Subang, Ipoh, Bayan Lepas, and Chuping. Multiple Regression analysis in Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS software has been used to analyze a set of eleven years (1997 – 2007 meteorological data. Senai rainfall model gives an accurate result compared to observation rainfall data and this model were validating with data from Kota Tinggi station. The analysis shows that the selected meteorological parameters influence the rainfall development. As a result, the rainfall model developed for Senai proves that it can be used in Kota Tinggi catchment area within the limit boundaries, as the two stations are close from one another. Then, the amounts of rainfall at the Senai and Kota Tinggi stations are compared and the calibration analysis shows that the proposed rainfall model can be used in both areas.

  12. Thermodynamical aspects of running vacuum models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, J.A.S. [Universidade de Sao Paulo, Departamento de Astronomia, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Basilakos, Spyros [Academy of Athens, Research Center for Astronomy and Applied Mathematics, Athens (Greece); Sola, Joan [Univ. de Barcelona, High Energy Physics Group, Dept. d' Estructura i Constituents de la Materia, Institut de Ciencies del Cosmos (ICC), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain)

    2016-04-15

    The thermal history of a large class of running vacuum models in which the effective cosmological term is described by a truncated power series of the Hubble rate, whose dominant term is Λ(H) ∝ H{sup n+2}, is discussed in detail. Specifically, by assuming that the ultrarelativistic particles produced by the vacuum decay emerge into space-time in such a way that its energy density ρ{sub r} ∝ T{sup 4}, the temperature evolution law and the increasing entropy function are analytically calculated. For the whole class of vacuum models explored here we find that the primeval value of the comoving radiation entropy density (associated to effectively massless particles) starts from zero and evolves extremely fast until reaching a maximum near the end of the vacuum decay phase, where it saturates. The late-time conservation of the radiation entropy during the adiabatic FRW phase also guarantees that the whole class of running vacuum models predicts the same correct value of the present day entropy, S{sub 0} ∝ 10{sup 87}-10{sup 88} (in natural units), independently of the initial conditions. In addition, by assuming Gibbons¨CHawking temperature as an initial condition, we find that the ratio between the late-time and primordial vacuum energy densities is in agreement with naive estimates from quantum field theory, namely, ρ{sub Λ0}/ρ{sub ΛI} 10{sup -123}. Such results are independent on the power n and suggests that the observed Universe may evolve smoothly between two extreme, unstable, non-singular de Sitter phases. (orig.)

  13. Short-run and long-run effect of oil consumption on economic growth: ECM model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofyan Syahnur

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of oil consumption on economic growth of Aceh in the long-run and short-run by using Error Correction Model (ECM model during the period before the world commodity prices fall of 1985–2008. Four types of oil consumption will be focused on Avtur, Gasoline, Kerosene and Diesel. The data is collected from Central Bureau of Statistics of Aceh (BPS Aceh. The result of this study shows a merely positive effect of oil consumption type diesel to economic growth in Aceh both in the short run and the long run.

  14. Daily total global solar radiation modeling from several meteorological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilgili, Mehmet; Ozgoren, Muammer

    2011-05-01

    This paper investigates the modeling of the daily total global solar radiation in Adana city of Turkey using multi-linear regression (MLR), multi-nonlinear regression (MNLR) and feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) methods. Several daily meteorological data, i.e., measured sunshine duration, air temperature and wind speed and date of the year, i.e., monthly and daily, were used as independent variables to the MLR, MNLR and ANN models. In order to determine the relationship between the total global solar radiation and other meteorological data, and also to obtain the best independent variables, the MLR and MNLR analyses were performed with the "Stepwise" method in the Statistical Packages for the Social Sciences (SPSS) program. Thus, various models consisting of the combination of the independent variables were constructed and the best input structure was investigated. The performances of all models in the training and testing data sets were compared with the measured daily global solar radiation values. The obtained results indicated that the ANN method was better than the other methods in modeling daily total global solar radiation. For the ANN model, mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), correlation coefficient ( R) and coefficient of determination ( R 2) for the training/testing data set were found to be 0.89/1.00 MJ/m2 day, 7.88/9.23%, 0.9824/0.9751, and 0.9651/0.9508, respectively.

  15. Meteorological input for atmospheric dispersion models: an inter-comparison between new generation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busillo, C.; Calastrini, F.; Gualtieri, G. [Lab. for Meteorol. and Environ. Modell. (LaMMA/CNR-IBIMET), Florence (Italy); Carpentieri, M.; Corti, A. [Dept. of Energetics, Univ. of Florence (Italy); Canepa, E. [INFM, Dept. of Physics, Univ. of Genoa (Italy)

    2004-07-01

    The behaviour of atmospheric dispersion models is strongly influenced by meteorological input, especially as far as new generation models are concerned. More sophisticated meteorological pre-processors require more extended and more reliable data. This is true in particular when short-term simulations are performed, while in long-term modelling detailed data are less important. In Europe no meteorological standards exist about data, therefore testing and evaluating the results of new generation dispersion models is particularly important in order to obtain information on reliability of model predictions. (orig.)

  16. Model for radionuclide transport in running waters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jonsson, Karin; Elert, Mark [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2005-11-15

    Two sites in Sweden are currently under investigation by SKB for their suitability as places for deep repository of radioactive waste, the Forsmark and Simpevarp/Laxemar area. As a part of the safety assessment, SKB has formulated a biosphere model with different sub-models for different parts of the ecosystem in order to be able to predict the dose to humans following a possible radionuclide discharge from a future deep repository. In this report, a new model concept describing radionuclide transport in streams is presented. The main difference from the previous model for running water used by SKB, where only dilution of the inflow of radionuclides was considered, is that the new model includes parameterizations also of the exchange processes present along the stream. This is done in order to be able to investigate the effect of the retention on the transport and to be able to estimate the resulting concentrations in the different parts of the system. The concentrations determined with this new model could later be used for order of magnitude predictions of the dose to humans. The presented model concept is divided in two parts, one hydraulic and one radionuclide transport model. The hydraulic model is used to determine the flow conditions in the stream channel and is based on the assumption of uniform flow and quasi-stationary conditions. The results from the hydraulic model are used in the radionuclide transport model where the concentration is determined in the different parts of the stream ecosystem. The exchange processes considered are exchange with the sediments due to diffusion, advective transport and sedimentation/resuspension and uptake of radionuclides in biota. Transport of both dissolved radionuclides and sorbed onto particulates is considered. Sorption kinetics in the stream water phase is implemented as the time scale of the residence time in the stream water probably is short in comparison to the time scale of the kinetic sorption. In the sediment

  17. Sound propagation in areas with a complex meteorology: a meteorological-acoustical model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eerden, F.J.M. van der; Berg, F. van den

    2008-01-01

    Long range sound propagation is largely affected by the vertical wind and temperature gradients. In areas where the meteorology can be complex, such as coastal areas, islands, and lake districts, the gradients usually vary as a function of the horizontal distance. As a result the sound propagation

  18. Sound propagation in areas with a complex meteorology: a meteorological-acoustical model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eerden, F.J.M. van der; Berg, F. van den

    2008-01-01

    Long range sound propagation is largely affected by the vertical wind and temperature gradients. In areas where the meteorology can be complex, such as coastal areas, islands, and lake districts, the gradients usually vary as a function of the horizontal distance. As a result the sound propagation i

  19. Manifold methods for assimilating geophysical and meteorological data in Earth system models and their components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safaie, Ammar; Dang, Chinh; Qiu, Han; Radha, Hayder; Phanikumar, Mantha S.

    2017-01-01

    A novel manifold method of reconstructing dynamically evolving spatial fields is presented for assimilating data from sensor networks in integrated land surface - subsurface, oceanic/lake models. The method was developed based on the assumption that data can be mapped onto an underlying differential manifold. In this study, the proposed method was used to reconstruct meteorological forcing over Lake Michigan, the bathymetry of an inland lake (Gull Lake), and precipitation over the Grand River watershed in Michigan. In the first case study, hourly meteorological forcing data were reconstructed and used to run a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Lake Michigan and to quantify the improvement that results from the use of the new method. In the second example, the bathymetry of Gull Lake was reconstructed from measured scatter point data using the manifold technique. A hydrodynamic model of Gull Lake was developed and refined using the improved bathymetry. In the last case study, improved daily participation data for a six-year period over the Grand River watershed were used as input to an integrated, distributed hydrologic model. All three examples illustrate the superior performance of the manifold method over standard methods in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency. Our results also indicate that using the cross-validation technique to evaluate the performance of data reconstruction methods can lead to misleading conclusions about their relative performance.

  20. Mesoscale meteorological modelling for Hong Kong-application of the MC2 model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the set-up and application of a non-hydrostatic Canadian meteorological numerical model (MC2) for mesoscale simulations of wind field and other meteorological parameters over the complex terrain of Hong Kong. Results of the simulations of one case are presented and compared with the results of radiosonde and aircraft measurements. The model is proved capable of predicting high-resolution,three-dimensional fields of wind and other meteorological parameters within the Hong Kong territory, using reasonable computer time and memory resources.

  1. Scrub Typhus Incidence Modeling with Meteorological Factors in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaewon Kwak

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Since its recurrence in 1986, scrub typhus has been occurring annually and it is considered as one of the most prevalent diseases in Korea. Scrub typhus is a 3rd grade nationally notifiable disease that has greatly increased in Korea since 2000. The objective of this study is to construct a disease incidence model for prediction and quantification of the incidences of scrub typhus. Using data from 2001 to 2010, the incidence Artificial Neural Network (ANN model, which considers the time-lag between scrub typhus and minimum temperature, precipitation and average wind speed based on the Granger causality and spectral analysis, is constructed and tested for 2011 to 2012. Results show reliable simulation of scrub typhus incidences with selected predictors, and indicate that the seasonality in meteorological data should be considered.

  2. Separation of run-off components of a glacierized catchment in Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia, by tracer methods (mainly δ2H, δ18O) and meteorological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weise, Stephan M.; Unger-Shayesteh, Katy; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Kalashnikova, Olga; Ershova, Natalya

    2017-04-01

    Since 2014 the glacierized Ala Archa catchment (ca. 230 km2) in the Kyrgyz Alatau mountains south of Bishkek is investigated for run-off contributions of precipitation, groundwater, snow-melt, and glacier melt by tracer methods (δ2H, δ18O, electrical conductivity) and hydro-meteorological data (run-off, precipitation, air temperature, albedo). The investigation period is characterized by a high inter-annual variability in precipitation amount and summer run-off. The isotopic composition of run-off water is found to be governed more by the interplay of air temperature, precipitation history, and snow coverage than by its origin from direct precipitation, snow- or glacial melt. The isotopic composition of base flow in winter and early spring time is found to vary probably not due to a reservoir (mixing) but due to a phase exchange process (fractionation). In the light of these results a separation of all run-off components in such an environment simply with isotope methods appears to be unrealistic.

  3. Long-run properties of some Danish macroeconometric models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harck, Søren H.

    This paper provides an analytical treatment of various long-run aspects of the MONA model as well as the SMEC model of the Danish economy. More specifically, the analysis lays bare the long-run and steady-state nexus between unemployment and, respectively, inflation and the wage share implied...

  4. Meteorological Drought Prediction Using a Multi-Model Ensemble Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, L.; Mo, K. C.; Zhang, Q.; Huang, J.

    2013-12-01

    In the United States, drought is among the costliest natural hazards, with an annual average of 6 billion dollars in damage. Drought prediction from monthly to seasonal time scales is of critical importance to disaster mitigation, agricultural planning, and multi-purpose reservoir management. Started in December 2012, NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has been providing operational Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Outlooks using the National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts, to support CPC's monthly drought outlooks and briefing activities. The current NMME system consists of six model forecasts from U.S. and Canada modeling centers, including the CFSv2, CM2.1, GEOS-5, CCSM3.0, CanCM3, and CanCM4 models. In this study, we conduct an assessment of the meteorological drought predictability using the retrospective NMME forecasts for the period from 1982 to 2010. Before predicting SPI, monthly-mean precipitation (P) forecasts from each model were bias corrected and spatially downscaled (BCSD) to regional grids of 0.5-degree resolution over the contiguous United States based on the probability distribution functions derived from the hindcasts. The corrected P forecasts were then appended to the CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis to form a P time series for computing 3-month and 6-month SPIs. The ensemble SPI forecasts are the equally weighted mean of the six model forecasts. Two performance measures, the anomaly correlation and root-mean-square errors against the observations, are used to evaluate forecast skill. For P forecasts, errors vary among models and skill generally is low after the second month. All model P forecasts have higher skill in winter and lower skill in summer. In wintertime, BCSD improves both P and SPI forecast skill. Most improvements are over the western mountainous regions and along the Great Lake. Overall, SPI predictive skill is regionally and seasonally dependent. The six-month SPI forecasts are skillful out to four months. For

  5. Forecasting rain events - Meteorological models or collective intelligence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arazy, Ofer; Halfon, Noam; Malkinson, Dan

    2015-04-01

    Collective intelligence is shared (or group) intelligence that emerges from the collective efforts of many individuals. Collective intelligence is the aggregate of individual contributions: from simple collective decision making to more sophisticated aggregations such as in crowdsourcing and peer-production systems. In particular, collective intelligence could be used in making predictions about future events, for example by using prediction markets to forecast election results, stock prices, or the outcomes of sport events. To date, there is little research regarding the use of collective intelligence for prediction of weather forecasting. The objective of this study is to investigate the extent to which collective intelligence could be utilized to accurately predict weather events, and in particular rainfall. Our analyses employ metrics of group intelligence, as well as compare the accuracy of groups' predictions against the predictions of the standard model used by the National Meteorological Services. We report on preliminary results from a study conducted over the 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 winters. We have built a web site that allows people to make predictions on precipitation levels on certain locations. During each competition participants were allowed to enter their precipitation forecasts (i.e. 'bets') at three locations and these locations changed between competitions. A precipitation competition was defined as a 48-96 hour period (depending on the expected weather conditions), bets were open 24-48 hours prior to the competition, and during betting period participants were allowed to change their bets with no limitation. In order to explore the effect of transparency, betting mechanisms varied across study's sites: full transparency (participants able to see each other's bets); partial transparency (participants see the group's average bet); and no transparency (no information of others' bets is made available). Several interesting findings emerged from

  6. Advanced overlay: sampling and modeling for optimized run-to-run control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subramany, Lokesh; Chung, WoongJae; Samudrala, Pavan; Gao, Haiyong; Aung, Nyan; Gomez, Juan Manuel; Gutjahr, Karsten; Park, DongSuk; Snow, Patrick; Garcia-Medina, Miguel; Yap, Lipkong; Demirer, Onur Nihat; Pierson, Bill; Robinson, John C.

    2016-03-01

    In recent years overlay (OVL) control schemes have become more complicated in order to meet the ever shrinking margins of advanced technology nodes. As a result, this brings up new challenges to be addressed for effective run-to- run OVL control. This work addresses two of these challenges by new advanced analysis techniques: (1) sampling optimization for run-to-run control and (2) bias-variance tradeoff in modeling. The first challenge in a high order OVL control strategy is to optimize the number of measurements and the locations on the wafer, so that the "sample plan" of measurements provides high quality information about the OVL signature on the wafer with acceptable metrology throughput. We solve this tradeoff between accuracy and throughput by using a smart sampling scheme which utilizes various design-based and data-based metrics to increase model accuracy and reduce model uncertainty while avoiding wafer to wafer and within wafer measurement noise caused by metrology, scanner or process. This sort of sampling scheme, combined with an advanced field by field extrapolated modeling algorithm helps to maximize model stability and minimize on product overlay (OPO). Second, the use of higher order overlay models means more degrees of freedom, which enables increased capability to correct for complicated overlay signatures, but also increases sensitivity to process or metrology induced noise. This is also known as the bias-variance trade-off. A high order model that minimizes the bias between the modeled and raw overlay signature on a single wafer will also have a higher variation from wafer to wafer or lot to lot, that is unless an advanced modeling approach is used. In this paper, we characterize the bias-variance trade off to find the optimal scheme. The sampling and modeling solutions proposed in this study are validated by advanced process control (APC) simulations to estimate run-to-run performance, lot-to-lot and wafer-to- wafer model term monitoring to

  7. Meteorological implementation issues in chemistry and transport models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. E. Strahan

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Offline chemistry and transport models (CTMs are versatile tools for studying composition and climate issues requiring multi-decadal simulations. They are computationally fast compared to coupled chemistry climate models, making them well-suited for integrating sensitivity experiments necessary for understanding model performance and interpreting results. The archived meteorological fields used by CTMs can be implemented with lower horizontal or vertical resolution than the original meteorological fields in order to shorten integration time, but the effects of these shortcuts on transport processes must be understood if the CTM is to have credibility. In this paper we present a series of sensitivity experiments on a CTM using the Lin and Rood advection scheme, each differing from another by a single feature of the wind field implementation. Transport effects arising from changes in resolution and model lid height are evaluated using process-oriented diagnostics that intercompare CH4, O3, and age tracer carried in the simulations. Some of the diagnostics used are derived from observations and are shown as a reality check for the model. Processes evaluated include tropical ascent, tropical-midlatitude exchange, poleward circulation in the upper stratosphere, and the development of the Antarctic vortex. We find that faithful representation of stratospheric transport in this CTM is possible with a full mesosphere, ~1 km resolution in the lower stratosphere, and relatively low vertical resolution (>4 km spacing in the middle stratosphere and above, but lowering the lid from the upper to lower mesosphere leads to less realistic constituent distributions in the upper stratosphere. Ultimately, this affects the polar lower stratosphere, but the effects are greater for the Antarctic than the Arctic. The fidelity of lower stratospheric transport requires realistic tropical and high latitude mixing barriers which are produced at 2°×2.5°, but not lower

  8. Pessimistic Predicate/Transform Model for Long Running Business Processes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Jinling; JIN Beihong; LI Jing

    2005-01-01

    Many business processes in enterprise applications are both long running and transactional in nature. However, no current transaction model can provide full transaction support for such long running business processes. This paper proposes a new transaction model, the pessimistic predicate/transform (PP/T) model, which can provide full transaction support for long running business processes. A framework was proposed on the enterprise JavaBeans platform to implement the PP/T model. The framework enables application developers to focus on the business logic, with the underlying platform providing the required transactional semantics. The development and maintenance effort are therefore greatly reduced. Simulations show that the model has a sound concurrency management ability for long running business processes.

  9. Thermoregulation and endurance running in extinct hominins: Wheeler's models revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruxton, Graeme D; Wilkinson, David M

    2011-08-01

    Thermoregulation is often cited as a potentially important influence on the evolution of hominins, thanks to a highly influential series of papers in the Journal of Human Evolution in the 1980s and 1990s by Peter Wheeler. These papers developed quantitative modeling of heat balance between different potential hominins and their environment. Here, we return to these models, update them in line with new developments and measurements in animal thermal biology, and modify them to represent a running hominin rather than the stationary form considered previously. In particular, we use our modified Wheeler model to investigate thermoregulatory aspects of the evolution of endurance running ability. Our model suggests that for endurance running to be possible, a hominin would need locomotive efficiency, sweating rates, and areas of hairless skin similar to modern humans. We argue that these restrictions suggest that endurance running may have been possible (from a thermoregulatory viewpoint) for Homo erectus, but is unlikely for any earlier hominins.

  10. On-line Meteorology-Chemistry/Aerosols Modelling and Integration for Risk Assessment: Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostanbekov, Kairat; Mahura, Alexander; Nuterman, Roman; Nurseitov, Daniyar; Zakarin, Edige; Baklanov, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    On regional level, and especially in areas with potential diverse sources of industrial pollutants, the risk assessment of impact on environment and population is critically important. During normal operations, the risk is minimal. However, during accidental situations, the risk is increased due to releases of harmful pollutants into different environments such as water, soil, and atmosphere where it is following processes of continuous transformation and transport. In this study, the Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment High Resolution Limited Area Model) was adapted and employed for assessment of scenarios with accidental and continuous emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2) for selected case studies during January of 2010. The following scenarios were considered: (i) control reference run; (ii) accidental release (due to short-term 1 day fire at oil storage facility) occurred at city of Atyrau (Kazakhstan) near the northern part of the Caspian Sea; and (iii) doubling of original continuous emissions from three locations of metallurgical enterprises on the Kola Peninsula (Russia). The implemented aerosol microphysics module M7 uses 5 types - sulphates, sea salt, dust, black and organic carbon; as well as distributed in 7 size modes. Removal processes of aerosols include gravitational settling and wet deposition. As the Enviro-HIRLAM model is the on-line integrated model, both meteorological and chemical processes are simultaneously modelled at each time step. The modelled spatio-temporal variations for meteorological and chemical patterns are analyzed for both European and Kazakhstan regions domains. The results of evaluation of sulphur dioxide concentration and deposition on main populated cities, selected regions, countries are presented employing GIS tools. As outcome, the results of Enviro-HIRLAM modelling for accidental release near the Caspian Sea are integrated into the RANDOM (Risk Assessment of Nature Detriment due to Oil spill Migration) system.

  11. A NEW COMBINED LOCAL AND NON-LOCAL PBL MODEL FOR METEOROLOGY AND AIR QUALITY MODELING

    Science.gov (United States)

    A new version of the Asymmetric Convective Model (ACM) has been developed to describe sub-grid vertical turbulent transport in both meteorology models and air quality models. The new version (ACM2) combines the non-local convective mixing of the original ACM with local eddy diff...

  12. A NEW COMBINED LOCAL AND NON-LOCAL PBL MODEL FOR METEOROLOGY AND AIR QUALITY MODELING

    Science.gov (United States)

    A new version of the Asymmetric Convective Model (ACM) has been developed to describe sub-grid vertical turbulent transport in both meteorology models and air quality models. The new version (ACM2) combines the non-local convective mixing of the original ACM with local eddy diff...

  13. Constrained Run-to-Run Optimization for Batch Process Based on Support Vector Regression Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    An iterative (run-to-run) optimization method was presented for batch processes under input constraints. Generally it is very difficult to acquire an accurate mechanistic model for a batch process. Because support vector machine is powerful for the problems characterized by small samples, nonlinearity, high dimension and local minima, support vector regression models were developed for the end-point optimization of batch processes. Since there is no analytical way to find the optimal trajectory, an iterative method was used to exploit the repetitive nature of batch processes to determine the optimal operating policy. The optimization algorithm is proved convergent. The numerical simulation shows that the method can improve the process performance through iterations.

  14. One-dimensional simulation of fire injection heights in contrasted meteorological scenarios with PRM and Meso-NH models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strada, S.; Freitas, S. R.; Mari, C.; Longo, K. M.; Paugam, R.

    2013-02-01

    Wild-fires release huge amounts of aerosol and hazardous trace gases in the atmosphere. The residence time and the dispersion of fire pollutants in the atmosphere can range from hours to days and from local to continental scales. These various scenarios highly depend on the injection height of smoke plumes. The altitude at which fire products are injected in the atmosphere is controlled by fire characteristics and meteorological conditions. Injection height however is still poorly accounted in chemistry transport models for which fires are sub-grid scale processes which need to be parametrised. Only recently, physically-based approaches for estimating the fire injection heights have been developed which consider both the convective updrafts induced by the release of fire sensible heat and the impact of background meteorological environment on the fire convection dynamics. In this work, two different models are used to simulate fire injection heights in contrasted meteorological scenarios: a Mediterranean arson fire and two Amazonian deforestation fires. A Eddy-Diffusivity/Mass-Flux approach, formerly developed to reproduce convective boundary layer in the non-hydrostatic meteorological model Meso-NH, is compared to the 1-D Plume Rise Model. For both models, radiosonde data and re-analyses from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have been used as initial conditions to explore the sensitivity of the models responses to different meteorological forcings. The two models predict injection heights for the Mediterranean fire between 1.7 and 3.3 km with the Meso-NH/EDMF model systematically higher than the 1-D PRM model. Both models show a limited sensitivity to the meteorological forcings with a 20-30% difference in the injection height between radiosondes and ECMWF data for this case. Injection heights calculated for the two Amazonian fires ranges from 5 to 6.5 km for the 1-D PRM model and from 2 to 4 km for the Meso-NH/EDMF model. The

  15. One-dimensional simulation of fire injection heights in contrasted meteorological scenarios with PRM and Meso-NH models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Strada

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Wild-fires release huge amounts of aerosol and hazardous trace gases in the atmosphere. The residence time and the dispersion of fire pollutants in the atmosphere can range from hours to days and from local to continental scales. These various scenarios highly depend on the injection height of smoke plumes. The altitude at which fire products are injected in the atmosphere is controlled by fire characteristics and meteorological conditions. Injection height however is still poorly accounted in chemistry transport models for which fires are sub-grid scale processes which need to be parametrised. Only recently, physically-based approaches for estimating the fire injection heights have been developed which consider both the convective updrafts induced by the release of fire sensible heat and the impact of background meteorological environment on the fire convection dynamics. In this work, two different models are used to simulate fire injection heights in contrasted meteorological scenarios: a Mediterranean arson fire and two Amazonian deforestation fires. A Eddy-Diffusivity/Mass-Flux approach, formerly developed to reproduce convective boundary layer in the non-hydrostatic meteorological model Meso-NH, is compared to the 1-D Plume Rise Model. For both models, radiosonde data and re-analyses from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF have been used as initial conditions to explore the sensitivity of the models responses to different meteorological forcings. The two models predict injection heights for the Mediterranean fire between 1.7 and 3.3 km with the Meso-NH/EDMF model systematically higher than the 1-D PRM model. Both models show a limited sensitivity to the meteorological forcings with a 20–30% difference in the injection height between radiosondes and ECMWF data for this case. Injection heights calculated for the two Amazonian fires ranges from 5 to 6.5 km for the 1-D PRM model and from 2 to 4 km for the Meso

  16. Validation of ice loads predicted from meteorological models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veal, A.; Skea, A. [UK Met Office, Exeter, England (United Kingdom); Wareing, B. [Brian Wareing Tech Ltd., England (United Kingdom)

    2005-07-01

    Results of a field trial conducted on 2 Gerber PVM-100 instruments at Deadwater Fell test site in the United Kingdom were presented. The trials were conducted to assess whether the instruments were capable of measuring the liquid water content of the air, as well as to validate an ice model in terms of accretion rates on different sized conductors. Ambient air temperature, wind speed and direction were monitored at the Deadwater Fell weather station along with load cell values. Time lapse video recorders and a web camera system were used to view the performance of the conductors in varying weather conditions. All data was collected and stored at the site. It was anticipated that output from the instruments could be related to the conditions under which overhead line conductors suffer from ice loads, and help to revise weather maps which have proved to be incompatible with utility experience and the lifetimes achieved by overhead line designs. The data provided from the Deadwater work included logged data from the Gerbers, weather data and load data from a 10 mm diameter aluminium alloy conductor. When the combination of temperature, wind direction and Gerber output indicated icing conditions, they were confirmed by the conductor's load cell data. The tests confirmed the validity of the Gerber instruments to predict the occurrence of icing conditions, when combined with other meteorological data. It was concluded that the instruments may aid in optimized prediction methods for ice loads and icing events. 2 refs., 4 figs.

  17. Terror birds on the run: a mechanical model to estimate its maximum running speed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanco, R. Ernesto; Jones, Washington W

    2005-01-01

    ‘Terror bird’ is a common name for the family Phorusrhacidae. These large terrestrial birds were probably the dominant carnivores on the South American continent from the Middle Palaeocene to the Pliocene–Pleistocene limit. Here we use a mechanical model based on tibiotarsal strength to estimate maximum running speeds of three species of terror birds: Mesembriornis milneedwardsi, Patagornis marshi and a specimen of Phorusrhacinae gen. The model is proved on three living large terrestrial bird species. On the basis of the tibiotarsal strength we propose that Mesembriornis could have used its legs to break long bones and access their marrow. PMID:16096087

  18. Improved meteorology from an updated WRF/CMAQ modeling system with MODIS vegetation and albedo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Realistic vegetation characteristics and phenology from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products improve the simulation for the meteorology and air quality modeling system WRF/CMAQ (Weather Research and Forecasting model and Community Multiscale Air Qual...

  19. Numerical Modelling of Wave Run-Up: Regular Waves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramirez, Jorge; Frigaard, Peter; Andersen, Thomas Lykke;

    2011-01-01

    Wave loads are important in problems related to offshore structure, such as wave run-up, slamming. The computation of such wave problems are carried out by CFD models. This paper presents one model, NS3, which solve 3D Navier-Stokes equations and use Volume of Fluid (VOF) method to treat the free...

  20. Numerical Modelling of Wave Run-Up: Regular Waves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramirez, Jorge; Frigaard, Peter; Andersen, Thomas Lykke

    2011-01-01

    Wave loads are important in problems related to offshore structure, such as wave run-up, slamming. The computation of such wave problems are carried out by CFD models. This paper presents one model, NS3, which solve 3D Navier-Stokes equations and use Volume of Fluid (VOF) method to treat the free...

  1. Long-Run Properties of Large-Scale Macroeconometric Models

    OpenAIRE

    Kenneth F. WALLIS-; John D. WHITLEY

    1987-01-01

    We consider alternative approaches to the evaluation of the long-run properties of dynamic nonlinear macroeconometric models, namely dynamic simulation over an extended database, or the construction and direct solution of the steady-state version of the model. An application to a small model of the UK economy is presented. The model is found to be unstable, but a stable form can be produced by simple alterations to the structure.

  2. Numerical Weather Prediction Models on Linux Boxes as tools in meteorological education in Hungary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyongyosi, A. Z.; Andre, K.; Salavec, P.; Horanyi, A.; Szepszo, G.; Mille, M.; Tasnadi, P.; Weidiger, T.

    2012-04-01

    . Numerical modeling became a common tool in the daily practice of weather experts forecasters due to the i) increasing user demands for weather data by the costumers, ii) the growth in computer resources, iii) numerical weather prediction systems available for integration on affordable, off the shelf computers and iv) available input data (from ECMWF or NCEP) for model integrations. Beside learning the theoretical basis, since the last year. Students in their MSc or BSc Thesis Research or in Student's Research ProjectsStudent's Research Projects h have the opportunity to run numerical models and to analyze the outputs for different purposes including wind energy estimation, simulation of the dynamics of a polar low, and subtropical cyclones, analysis of the isentropic potential vorticity field, examination of coupled atmospheric dispersion models, etc. A special course in the application of numerical modeling has been held (is being announced for the upcoming semester) (is being announced for the upcoming semester) for our students in order to improve their skills on this field. Several numerical model (NRIPR ETA and WRF) systems have been adapted in the University and integrated WRF have been tested and used for the geographical region of the Carpathian Basin (NRIPR, ETA and WRF). Recently ALADIN/CHAPEAU the academic version of the ARPEGE ALADIN cy33t1 meso-scale numerical weather prediction model system (which is the operational forecasting tool of our National Weather Service) has been installed at our Institute. ALADIN is the operational forecasting model of the Hungarian Meteorological Service and developed in the framework of the international ALADIN co-operation. Our main objectives are i) the analysis of different typical weather situations, ii) fine tuning of parameterization schemes and the iii) comparison of the ALADIN/CHAPEAU and WRF model outputs based on case studies. The necessary hardware and software innovations has have been done. In the presentation the

  3. Verification of a prognostic meteorological and air pollution model for year-long predictions in the Kwinana industrial region of Western Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hurley, P.J. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Vic (Australia); Blockley, A.; Rayner, K. [Department of Environmental Protection, Perth, WA (Australia)

    2001-04-01

    A prognostic air pollution model (TAPM) has been used to predict meteorology and sulphur dioxide concentration in the Kwinana industrial region of Western Australia for 1997, with a view to verifying TAPM for use in environmental impact assessments and associated air pollution studies. The regulatory plume model, DISPMOD, developed for the Kwinana region has also been run using both an observationally based meteorological file (denoted DISPMOD-O) and using a TAPM-based meteorological file (denoted DISPMOD-T). TAPM predictions of the meteorology for 1997 compare well with the observed values at each of the five monitoring sites. Root mean square error and index of agreement values for temperature and winds indicate that TAPM performs well at predicting the meteorology, compared to the performance of similar models from other studies. The yearly average, 99.9 percentile, maximum and mean of the top 10 ground-level sulphur dioxide concentrations for 1997 were predicted well by all of the model runs, although DISPMOD-O and DISPMOD-T tended to overpredict extreme statistics at sites furthest from the sources. Overall, TAPM performed better than DISPMOD-O, which in turn performed better than DISPMOD-T, for all statistics considered, but we consider that all three sets of results are sufficiently accurate for regulatory applications. The mean of the top ten concentrations is generally considered to be a robust performance statistic for air pollution applications, and we show that compared to the site-averaged observed value of 95{mu}gm{sup -3}, TAPM predicted 94{mu}gm{sup -3}, DISPMOD-O predicted 111{mu}gm{sup -3} and DISPMOD-T predicted 125{mu}gm{sup -3}. The results indicate that the prognostic meteorological and air pollution approach to regulatory modelling used by TAPM, gives comparable or better results than the current regulatory approach used in the Kwinana region (DISPMOD), and also indicates that the approach of using a currently accepted regulatory model with a

  4. Modeling Current Transfer from PV Modules Based on Meteorological Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hacke, Peter; Smith, Ryan; Kurtz, Sarah; Jordan, Dirk; Wohlgemuth, John

    2016-11-21

    Current transferred from the active cell circuit to ground in modules undergoing potential-induced degradation (PID) stress is analyzed with respect to meteorological data. Duration and coulombs transferred as a function of whether the module is wet (from dew or rain) or the extent of uncondensed surface humidity are quantified based on meteorological indicators. With this, functions predicting the mode and rate of coulomb transfer are developed for use in estimating the relative PID stress associated with temperature, moisture, and system voltage in any climate. Current transfer in a framed crystalline silicon module is relatively high when there is no condensed water on the module, whereas current transfer in a thin-film module held by edge clips is not, and displays a greater fraction of coulombs transferred when wet compared to the framed module in the natural environment.

  5. Matter density perturbation and power spectrum in running vacuum model

    CERN Document Server

    Geng, Chao-Qiang

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the matter density perturbation $\\delta_m$ and power spectrum $P(k)$ in the running vacuum model (RVM) with the cosmological constant being a function of the Hubble parameter, given by $\\Lambda = \\Lambda_0 + 6 \\sigma H H_0+ 3\

  6. Using meteorological ensembles for atmospheric dispersion modelling of the Fukushima nuclear accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Périllat, Raphaël; Korsakissok, Irène; Mallet, Vivien; Mathieu, Anne; Sekiyama, Thomas; Didier, Damien; Kajino, Mizuo; Igarashi, Yasuhito; Adachi, Kouji

    2016-04-01

    Dispersion models are used in response to an accidental release of radionuclides of the atmosphere, to infer mitigation actions, and complement field measurements for the assessment of short and long term environmental and sanitary impacts. However, the predictions of these models are subject to important uncertainties, especially due to input data, such as meteorological fields or source term. This is still the case more than four years after the Fukushima disaster (Korsakissok et al., 2012, Girard et al., 2014). In the framework of the SAKURA project, an MRI-IRSN collaboration, a meteorological ensemble of 20 members designed by MRI (Sekiyama et al. 2013) was used with IRSN's atmospheric dispersion models. Another ensemble, retrieved from ECMWF and comprising 50 members, was also used for comparison. The MRI ensemble is 3-hour assimilated, with a 3-kilometers resolution, designed to reduce the meteorological uncertainty in the Fukushima case. The ECMWF is a 24-hour forecast with a coarser grid, representative of the uncertainty of the data available in a crisis context. First, it was necessary to assess the quality of the ensembles for our purpose, to ensure that their spread was representative of the uncertainty of meteorological fields. Using meteorological observations allowed characterizing the ensembles' spread, with tools such as Talagrand diagrams. Then, the uncertainty was propagated through atmospheric dispersion models. The underlying question is whether the output spread is larger than the input spread, that is, whether small uncertainties in meteorological fields can produce large differences in atmospheric dispersion results. Here again, the use of field observations was crucial, in order to characterize the spread of the ensemble of atmospheric dispersion simulations. In the case of the Fukushima accident, gamma dose rates, air activities and deposition data were available. Based on these data, selection criteria for the ensemble members were

  7. The Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor (MCIP for the CMAQ modeling system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. L. Otte

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ modeling system, a state-of-the-science regional air quality modeling system developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency, is being used for a variety of environmental modeling problems including regulatory applications, air quality forecasting, evaluation of emissions control strategies, process-level research, and interactions of global climate change and regional air quality. The Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor (MCIP is a vital piece of software within the CMAQ modeling system that serves to, as best as possible, maintain dynamic consistency between the meteorological model and the chemical transport model. MCIP acts as both a post-processor to the meteorological model and a pre-processor to the CMAQ modeling system. MCIP's functions are to ingest the meteorological model output fields in their native formats, perform horizontal and vertical coordinate transformations, diagnose additional atmospheric fields, define gridding parameters, and prepare the meteorological fields in a form required by the CMAQ modeling system. This paper provides an updated overview of MCIP, documenting the scientific changes that have been made since it was first released as part of the CMAQ modeling system in 1998.

  8. FSO and radio link attenuation: meteorological models verified by experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brazda, Vladimir; Fiser, Ondrej; Svoboda, Jaroslav

    2011-09-01

    Institute of Atmospheric Physics of Czech Academy measures atmospheric attenuation on 60 m experimental FSO link on 830 and 1550 nm for more than three years. Visibility sensors and two 3D sonic anemometers on both transmitting and receiving site, rain gauge and many sensors enabling the refractivity index computation are spaced along the optical link. Meteorological visibility, wind turbulent energy, sonic temperature, structure index and rain rate are correlated with measured attenuation. FSO link attenuation dependence on the above mentioned parameters is analyzed. The paper shows also basic statistical behavior of the long-term FSO signal level and also the simulation of hybrid link techniques.

  9. Test of the classic model for predicting endurance running performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, James E; Howley, Edward T; Bassett, David R; Thompson, Dixie L; Fitzhugh, Eugene C

    2010-05-01

    To compare the classic physiological variables linked to endurance performance (VO2max, %VO2max at lactate threshold (LT), and running economy (RE)) with peak treadmill velocity (PTV) as predictors of performance in a 16-km time trial. Seventeen healthy, well-trained distance runners (10 males and 7 females) underwent laboratory testing to determine maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max), RE, percentage of maximal oxygen uptake at the LT (%VO2max at LT), running velocity at LT, and PTV. Velocity at VO2max (vVO2max) was calculated from RE and VO2max. Three stepwise regression models were used to determine the best predictors (classic vs treadmill performance protocols) for the 16-km running time trial. Simple Pearson correlations of the variables with 16-km performance showed vVO2max to have the highest correlation (r = -0.972) and %VO2max at the LT the lowest (r = 0.136). The correlation coefficients for LT, VO2max, and PTV were very similar in magnitude (r = -0.903 to r = -0.892). When VO2max, %VO2max at LT, RE, and PTV were entered into SPSS stepwise analysis, VO2max explained 81.3% of the total variance, and RE accounted for an additional 10.7%. vVO2max was shown to be the best predictor of the 16-km performance, accounting for 94.4% of the total variance. The measured velocity at VO2max (PTV) was highly correlated with the estimated velocity at vVO2max (r = 0.8867). Among well-trained subjects heterogeneous in VO2max and running performance, vVO2max is the best predictor of running performance because it integrates both maximal aerobic power and the economy of running. The PTV is linked to the same physiological variables that determine vVO2max.

  10. Arbitrary Symmetric Running Gait Generation for an Underactuated Biped Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esmaeili, Mohammad; Macnab, Chris

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates generating symmetric trajectories for an underactuated biped during the stance phase of running. We use a point mass biped (PMB) model for gait analysis that consists of a prismatic force actuator on a massless leg. The significance of this model is its ability to generate more general and versatile running gaits than the spring-loaded inverted pendulum (SLIP) model, making it more suitable as a template for real robots. The algorithm plans the necessary leg actuator force to cause the robot center of mass to undergo arbitrary trajectories in stance with any arbitrary attack angle and velocity angle. The necessary actuator forces follow from the inverse kinematics and dynamics. Then these calculated forces become the control input to the dynamic model. We compare various center-of-mass trajectories, including a circular arc and polynomials of the degrees 2, 4 and 6. The cost of transport and maximum leg force are calculated for various attack angles and velocity angles. The results show that choosing the velocity angle as small as possible is beneficial, but the angle of attack has an optimum value. We also find a new result: there exist biped running gaits with double-hump ground reaction force profiles which result in less maximum leg force than single-hump profiles. PMID:28118401

  11. New meteorological data assimilation model for real-time emergency response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sugiyama, G.; Chan, S.T.

    1997-09-01

    We are developing a new meteorological data assimilation model for the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) project at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, which provides real-time dose assessments of airborne pollutant releases. The model, ADAPT (Atmospheric Data Assimilation and Parameterization Techniques), builds three-dimensional meteorological fields, which can be used to drive dispersion models or to initialize or evaluate mesoscale models. ADAPT incorporates many new features and substantial improvements over the current ARAC operational models MEDIC/MATHEW, including the use of continuous-terrain variable-resolution grids, the ability to treat assorted meteorological data such as temperatures, pressure, and relative humidity, and a new algorithm to produce mass-consistent wind fields. In this paper, we will describe the main features of the model, current work on a new atmospheric stability parameterization, and show example results.

  12. Neural-Based Pattern Matching for Selection of Biophysical Model Meteorological Forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, A. M.; Wigmosta, M. S.; Li, H.; Venteris, E. R.; Skaggs, R. J.

    2011-12-01

    The current interest and demand for developing renewable and sustainable bio-based energies has brought microalgae and other terrestrial feedstocks into the active research domain where different components and strategies of the lifecycle are evaluated for economic and resource efficiency. To understand the potential energy returns and resource requirements of large-scale open- and closed-pond microalgae cultivation facilities and terrestrial feedstock growth on marginal lands, a spatial modeling and biophysical modeling suite, referred to as the Biomass Assessment Tool (BAT), has been developed. BAT is in part comprised of (1) a high spatial resolution multi-criteria land suitability model; (2) a coupled, high-temporal resolution, full mass and energy balance hydrodynamic pond temperature and microalgae growth model; (3) a terrestrial water demand and biomass growth model; and (4) an spatially-based energy, land, and water use optimization routine. Depending on the criteria used, our national spatial land suitability model yields tens of thousands of potential large-scale bioenergy sites for modeling and evaluation of production and resource demand. The fundamental driver of water use and bioenergy production rates in pond-based cultivation systems and traditional terrestrial crop growth is the meteorology; however, a major obstacle in the use of high spatiotemporal resolution biophysical models is the lack of sufficient and readily available meteorological data at the appropriate scale. To address this issue, firstly, the daily meteorology data from 2,522 USDA CLIGEN stations within the conterminous United States were disaggregated to an hourly time-step using the physics-based approach of Waichler and Wigmosta (2003), yielding a high-temporal resolution 30-year meteorological record. Secondly, in order to best describe the meteorological model forcings for a given site and significantly increase modeling efficiency, we developed a novel multi-scale pattern

  13. Numerical modeling of windblown dust in the Pacific Northwest with improved meteorology and dust emission models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundram, Irra; Claiborn, Candis; Strand, Tara; Lamb, Brian; Chandler, Dave; Saxton, Keith

    2004-12-01

    Soil erosion by wind is a serious consequence of dry land agriculture in eastern Washington, where the main adverse effects are loss of nutrient-rich soil, reduced visibility during dust storms and degradation of air quality. A multidisciplinary research effort to study windblown dust in central and eastern Washington was initiated under the Columbia Plateau PM10 (CP3) program, which involved measuring wind erosion and windblown dust emissions at sites throughout the region and developing a transport and dispersion model for the area. The modeling system includes the prognostic meteorological model, Mesoscale Metorological Model Version 5 (MM5), coupled with the CALMET/CALGRID Eularian modeling pair and a new dust emission module (EMIT-PM). Improvements to the modeling system included employing higher spatial resolutions for the meteorological models and improved parameterizations of emission factors in EMIT-PM. Meteorological fields, dust emissions and the resulting dust concentrations were simulated for six historical regional dust storms: 23 November 1990, 21 October 1991, 11 September 1993, 3 November 1993, 30 August 1996 and 23-25 September 1999. For all the simulated events, with the exception of the August 1996 event, ratios of observed to predicted concentrations were favorable, within a range of 0.5-6.0 without calibration of the dust emission model; PM10 emissions averaged 22 Gg per 24-hour event, representing approximately 1% of the daily dust flux on a global basis. These results showed that the model performed best for large, strong dust storms but did not simulate smaller storms as well.

  14. Mapping the Martian Meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, M.; Ross, J. D.; Solomon, N.

    1999-01-01

    The Mars-adapted version of the NASA/GISS general circulation model (GCM) has been applied to the hourly/daily simulation of the planet's meteorology over several seasonal orbits. The current running version of the model includes a diurnal solar cycle, CO2 sublimation, and a mature parameterization of upper level wave drag with a vertical domain extending from the surface up to the 6microb level. The benchmark simulations provide a four-dimensional archive for the comparative evaluation of various schemes for the retrieval of winds from anticipated polar orbiter measurements of temperatures by the Pressure Modulator Infrared Radiometer. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  15. Online coupled meteorology and chemistry models: history, current status, and outlook

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The climate-chemistry-aerosol-cloud-radiation feedbacks are important processes occurring in the atmosphere. Accurately simulating those feedbacks requires fully-coupled meteorology, climate, and chemistry models and presents significant challenges in terms of both scientific understanding and computational demand. This paper reviews the history and current status of development and application of online coupled models. Several representative online coupled meteorology and chemistry models developed in the U.S. such as GATOR-GCMOM, WRF/Chem, CAM3, MIRAGE, and Caltech unified GCM are included along with case studies. Major model features, physical/chemical treatments, as well as typical applications are compared with a focus on aerosol microphysics treatments, aerosol feedbacks to planetary boundary layer meteorology, and aerosol-cloud interactions. Recommendations for future development and improvement of online coupled models are provided.

  16. Transitioning Enhanced Land Surface Initialization and Model Verification Capabilities to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Mungai, John; Sakwa, Vincent; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Limaye, Ashutosh; Blankenship, Clay B.

    2016-01-01

    Flooding, severe weather, and drought are key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), based in Nairobi, Kenya. Atmospheric processes leading to convection, excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content, especially during anomalous conditions and dry/wet seasonal transitions. It is thus important to represent accurately land surface state variables (green vegetation fraction, soil moisture, and soil temperature) in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The NASA SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) programs in Huntsville, AL have established a working partnership with KMD to enhance its regional modeling capabilities. SPoRT and SERVIR are providing experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities for capacity building at KMD. To support its forecasting operations, KMD is running experimental configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; Skamarock et al. 2008) model on a 12-km/4-km nested regional domain over eastern Africa, incorporating the land surface datasets provided by NASA SPoRT and SERVIR. SPoRT, SERVIR, and KMD participated in two training sessions in March 2014 and June 2015 to foster the collaboration and use of unique land surface datasets and model verification capabilities. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather and climate outlooks over Eastern Africa. For enhanced land-surface initialization, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run over Eastern Africa at 3-km resolution, providing real-time land surface initialization data in place of interpolated global model soil moisture and temperature data available at coarser resolutions. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction (GVF) composites from the Suomi-NPP VIIRS instrument is being incorporated

  17. Linking Fish Habitat Modelling and Sediment Transport in Running Waters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Andreas; EISNER; Silke; WIEPRECHT; Matthias; SCHNEIDER

    2005-01-01

    The assessment of ecological status for running waters is one of the major issues within an integrated river basin management and plays a key role with respect to the implementation of the European Water Frame- work Directive (WFD).One of the tools supporting the development of sustainable river management is physi- cal habitat modeling,e.g.,for fish,because fish population are one of the most important indicators for the e- colngical integrity of rivers.Within physical habitat models hydromorphological ...

  18. Evaluating the performance of ENVI-met model in diurnal cycles for different meteorological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acero, Juan A.; Arrizabalaga, Jon

    2016-11-01

    Urban areas are known to modify meteorological variables producing important differences in small spatial scales (i.e. microscale). These affect human thermal comfort conditions and the dispersion of pollutants, especially those emitted inside the urban area, which finally influence quality of life and the use of public open spaces. In this study, the diurnal evolution of meteorological variables measured in four urban spaces is compared with the results provided by ENVI-met (v 4.0). Measurements were carried out during 3 days with different meteorological conditions in Bilbao in the north of the Iberian Peninsula. The evaluation of the model accuracy (i.e. the degree to which modelled values approach measured values) was carried out with several quantitative difference metrics. The results for air temperature and humidity show a good agreement of measured and modelled values independently of the regional meteorological conditions. However, in the case of mean radiant temperature and wind speed, relevant differences are encountered highlighting the limitation of the model to estimate these meteorological variables precisely during diurnal cycles, in the considered evaluation conditions (sites and weather).

  19. Improvement of disease prediction and modeling through the use of meteorological ensembles: human plague in Uganda.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean M Moore

    Full Text Available Climate and weather influence the occurrence, distribution, and incidence of infectious diseases, particularly those caused by vector-borne or zoonotic pathogens. Thus, models based on meteorological data have helped predict when and where human cases are most likely to occur. Such knowledge aids in targeting limited prevention and control resources and may ultimately reduce the burden of diseases. Paradoxically, localities where such models could yield the greatest benefits, such as tropical regions where morbidity and mortality caused by vector-borne diseases is greatest, often lack high-quality in situ local meteorological data. Satellite- and model-based gridded climate datasets can be used to approximate local meteorological conditions in data-sparse regions, however their accuracy varies. Here we investigate how the selection of a particular dataset can influence the outcomes of disease forecasting models. Our model system focuses on plague (Yersinia pestis infection in the West Nile region of Uganda. The majority of recent human cases have been reported from East Africa and Madagascar, where meteorological observations are sparse and topography yields complex weather patterns. Using an ensemble of meteorological datasets and model-averaging techniques we find that the number of suspected cases in the West Nile region was negatively associated with dry season rainfall (December-February and positively with rainfall prior to the plague season. We demonstrate that ensembles of available meteorological datasets can be used to quantify climatic uncertainty and minimize its impacts on infectious disease models. These methods are particularly valuable in regions with sparse observational networks and high morbidity and mortality from vector-borne diseases.

  20. Improvement of disease prediction and modeling through the use of meteorological ensembles: human plague in Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sean M; Monaghan, Andrew; Griffith, Kevin S; Apangu, Titus; Mead, Paul S; Eisen, Rebecca J

    2012-01-01

    Climate and weather influence the occurrence, distribution, and incidence of infectious diseases, particularly those caused by vector-borne or zoonotic pathogens. Thus, models based on meteorological data have helped predict when and where human cases are most likely to occur. Such knowledge aids in targeting limited prevention and control resources and may ultimately reduce the burden of diseases. Paradoxically, localities where such models could yield the greatest benefits, such as tropical regions where morbidity and mortality caused by vector-borne diseases is greatest, often lack high-quality in situ local meteorological data. Satellite- and model-based gridded climate datasets can be used to approximate local meteorological conditions in data-sparse regions, however their accuracy varies. Here we investigate how the selection of a particular dataset can influence the outcomes of disease forecasting models. Our model system focuses on plague (Yersinia pestis infection) in the West Nile region of Uganda. The majority of recent human cases have been reported from East Africa and Madagascar, where meteorological observations are sparse and topography yields complex weather patterns. Using an ensemble of meteorological datasets and model-averaging techniques we find that the number of suspected cases in the West Nile region was negatively associated with dry season rainfall (December-February) and positively with rainfall prior to the plague season. We demonstrate that ensembles of available meteorological datasets can be used to quantify climatic uncertainty and minimize its impacts on infectious disease models. These methods are particularly valuable in regions with sparse observational networks and high morbidity and mortality from vector-borne diseases.

  1. Improvement of Disease Prediction and Modeling through the Use of Meteorological Ensembles: Human Plague in Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sean M.; Monaghan, Andrew; Griffith, Kevin S.; Apangu, Titus; Mead, Paul S.; Eisen, Rebecca J.

    2012-01-01

    Climate and weather influence the occurrence, distribution, and incidence of infectious diseases, particularly those caused by vector-borne or zoonotic pathogens. Thus, models based on meteorological data have helped predict when and where human cases are most likely to occur. Such knowledge aids in targeting limited prevention and control resources and may ultimately reduce the burden of diseases. Paradoxically, localities where such models could yield the greatest benefits, such as tropical regions where morbidity and mortality caused by vector-borne diseases is greatest, often lack high-quality in situ local meteorological data. Satellite- and model-based gridded climate datasets can be used to approximate local meteorological conditions in data-sparse regions, however their accuracy varies. Here we investigate how the selection of a particular dataset can influence the outcomes of disease forecasting models. Our model system focuses on plague (Yersinia pestis infection) in the West Nile region of Uganda. The majority of recent human cases have been reported from East Africa and Madagascar, where meteorological observations are sparse and topography yields complex weather patterns. Using an ensemble of meteorological datasets and model-averaging techniques we find that the number of suspected cases in the West Nile region was negatively associated with dry season rainfall (December-February) and positively with rainfall prior to the plague season. We demonstrate that ensembles of available meteorological datasets can be used to quantify climatic uncertainty and minimize its impacts on infectious disease models. These methods are particularly valuable in regions with sparse observational networks and high morbidity and mortality from vector-borne diseases. PMID:23024750

  2. Greenhouse gas simulations with a coupled meteorological and transport model: the predictability of CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polavarapu, Saroja M.; Neish, Michael; Tanguay, Monique; Girard, Claude; de Grandpré, Jean; Semeniuk, Kirill; Gravel, Sylvie; Ren, Shuzhan; Roche, Sébastien; Chan, Douglas; Strong, Kimberly

    2016-09-01

    A new model for greenhouse gas transport has been developed based on Environment and Climate Change Canada's operational weather and environmental prediction models. When provided with realistic posterior fluxes for CO2, the CO2 simulations compare well to NOAA's CarbonTracker fields and to near-surface continuous measurements, columns from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and NOAA aircraft profiles. This coupled meteorological and tracer transport model is used to study the predictability of CO2. Predictability concerns the quantification of model forecast errors and thus of transport model errors. CO2 predictions are used to compute model-data mismatches when solving flux inversion problems and the quality of such predictions is a major concern. Here, the loss of meteorological predictability due to uncertain meteorological initial conditions is shown to impact CO2 predictability. The predictability of CO2 is shorter than that of the temperature field and increases near the surface and in the lower stratosphere. When broken down into spatial scales, CO2 predictability at the very largest scales is mainly due to surface fluxes but there is also some sensitivity to the land and ocean surface forcing of meteorological fields. The predictability due to the land and ocean surface is most evident in boreal summer when biospheric uptake produces large spatial gradients in the CO2 field. This is a newly identified source of uncertainty in CO2 predictions but it is expected to be much less significant than uncertainties in fluxes. However, it serves as an upper limit for the more important source of transport error and loss of predictability, which is due to uncertain meteorological analyses. By isolating this component of transport error, it is demonstrated that CO2 can only be defined on large spatial scales due to the presence of meteorological uncertainty. Thus, for a given model, there is a spatial scale below which fluxes cannot be inferred simply

  3. EDgE multi-model hydro-meteorological seasonal hindcast experiments over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Rakovec, Oldrich; Wood, Eric; Sheffield, Justin; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Prudhomme, Christel

    2017-04-01

    , Spain, and UK indicate that extreme events such as the 2003 European drought can be forecasted consistently by all models at short lead times of one to two months. At six month lead time, the 208 model realizations show little skill to forecast extreme events. The predictability of extreme events is not uniformly distributed across Europe. For example, Northern Europe exhibits higher predictability due to the persistence induced by cold processes (e.g., snow). In general, the major source of poor forecasting skill is the little skill in precipitation forecast. References http://climate.copernicus.eu/edge-end-end-demonstrator-improved-decision-making-water-sector-europe Bohn, T. J. , B., Livneh J. W. Oyler, S. W. Running, B. Nijssen, D. P. Lettenmaier, 2013: Global evaluation of MTCLIM and related algorithms for forcing of ecological and hydrological models. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 176 , pp. 38-49. Samaniego, L., R. Kumar, and S. Attinger (2010), Multiscale parameter regionalization of a grid-based hydrologic model at the mesoscale, Water Resource Research, 46, W05523, doi:10.1029/2008WR007327 Thober, S., R. Kumar, J. Sheffield, J. Mai, D. Schaefer, and L. Samaniego, 2015: Seasonal soil moisture drought prediction over Europe using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). J. Hydrometeor., 16, 2329-2344.

  4. Dispersion modeling of accidental releases of toxic gases - Sensitivity study and optimization of the meteorological input

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumann-Stanzer, K.; Stenzel, S.

    2009-04-01

    Several air dispersion models are available for prediction and simulation of the hazard areas associated with accidental releases of toxic gases. The most model packages (commercial or free of charge) include a chemical database, an intuitive graphical user interface (GUI) and automated graphical output for effective presentation of results. The models are designed especially for analyzing different accidental toxic release scenarios ("worst-case scenarios"), preparing emergency response plans and optimal countermeasures as well as for real-time risk assessment and management. Uncertainties in the meteorological input together with incorrect estimates of the source play a critical role for the model results. The research project RETOMOD (reference scenarios calculations for toxic gas releases - model systems and their utility for the fire brigade) was conducted by the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) in cooperation with the Vienna fire brigade, OMV Refining & Marketing GmbH and Synex Ries & Greßlehner GmbH. RETOMOD was funded by the KIRAS safety research program at the Austrian Ministry of Transport, Innovation and Technology (www.kiras.at). The main tasks of this project were 1. Sensitivity study and optimization of the meteorological input for modeling of the hazard areas (human exposure) during the accidental toxic releases. 2. Comparison of several model packages (based on reference scenarios) in order to estimate the utility for the fire brigades. This presentation gives a short introduction to the project and presents the results of task 1 (meteorological input). The results of task 2 are presented by Stenzel and Baumann-Stanzer in this session. For the aim of this project, the observation-based analysis and forecasting system INCA, developed in the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) was used. INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) data were calculated with 1 km horizontal resolution and

  5. Integrating spatio-temporal environmental models for planning ski runs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pfeffer, Karin

    2003-01-01

    The establishment of ski runs and ski lifts, the action of skiing and maintenance of ski runs may cause considerable environmental impact. Clearly, for improvements to be made in the planning of ski runs in alpine terrain a good understanding of the environmental system and the response of environme

  6. Influence of hydro-meteorological data spatial aggregation on streamflow modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girons Lopez, Marc; Seibert, Jan

    2016-10-01

    Data availability is important for virtually any purpose in hydrology. While some parts of the world continue to be under-monitored, other areas are experiencing an increased availability of high-resolution data. The use of the highest available resolution has always been preferred and many efforts have been made to maximize the information content of data and thus improve its predictive power and reduce the costs of maintenance of hydrometric sensor networks. In the light of ever-increasing data resolution, however, it is important to assess the added value of using the highest resolution available. In this study we present an assessment of the relative importance of hydro-meteorological data resolution for hydrological modelling. We used a case study with high-resolution data availability to investigate the influence of using models calibrated with different levels of spatially aggregated meteorological input data to estimate streamflow for different periods and at different locations. We found site specific variations, but model parameterizations calibrated using sub-catchment specific meteorological input data tended to produce better streamflow estimates, with model efficiency values being up to 0.35 efficiency units higher than those calibrated with catchment averaged meteorological data. We also found that basin characteristics other than catchment area have little effect on the performance of model parameterizations applied in different locations than the calibration site. Finally, we found that using an increased number of discharge data locations has a larger impact on model calibration efficiency than using spatially specific meteorological data. The results of this study contribute to improve the knowledge on assessing data needs for water management in terms of adequate data type and level of spatial aggregation.

  7. Coupled hydro-meteorological modelling on a HPC platform for high-resolution extreme weather impact study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Dehua; Echendu, Shirley; Xuan, Yunqing; Webster, Mike; Cluckie, Ian

    2016-11-01

    Impact-focused studies of extreme weather require coupling of accurate simulations of weather and climate systems and impact-measuring hydrological models which themselves demand larger computer resources. In this paper, we present a preliminary analysis of a high-performance computing (HPC)-based hydrological modelling approach, which is aimed at utilizing and maximizing HPC power resources, to support the study on extreme weather impact due to climate change. Here, four case studies are presented through implementation on the HPC Wales platform of the UK mesoscale meteorological Unified Model (UM) with high-resolution simulation suite UKV, alongside a Linux-based hydrological model, Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE). The results of this study suggest that the coupled hydro-meteorological model was still able to capture the major flood peaks, compared with the conventional gauge- or radar-driving forecast, but with the added value of much extended forecast lead time. The high-resolution rainfall estimation produced by the UKV performs similarly to that of radar rainfall products in the first 2-3 days of tested flood events, but the uncertainties particularly increased as the forecast horizon goes beyond 3 days. This study takes a step forward to identify how the online mode approach can be used, where both numerical weather prediction and the hydrological model are executed, either simultaneously or on the same hardware infrastructures, so that more effective interaction and communication can be achieved and maintained between the models. But the concluding comments are that running the entire system on a reasonably powerful HPC platform does not yet allow for real-time simulations, even without the most complex and demanding data simulation part.

  8. Biases in atmospheric CO2 estimates from correlated meteorology modeling errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, S. M.; Hayek, M. N.; Andrews, A. E.; Fung, I.; Liu, J.

    2015-03-01

    Estimates of CO2 fluxes that are based on atmospheric measurements rely upon a meteorology model to simulate atmospheric transport. These models provide a quantitative link between the surface fluxes and CO2 measurements taken downwind. Errors in the meteorology can therefore cause errors in the estimated CO2 fluxes. Meteorology errors that correlate or covary across time and/or space are particularly worrisome; they can cause biases in modeled atmospheric CO2 that are easily confused with the CO2 signal from surface fluxes, and they are difficult to characterize. In this paper, we leverage an ensemble of global meteorology model outputs combined with a data assimilation system to estimate these biases in modeled atmospheric CO2. In one case study, we estimate the magnitude of month-long CO2 biases relative to CO2 boundary layer enhancements and quantify how that answer changes if we either include or remove error correlations or covariances. In a second case study, we investigate which meteorological conditions are associated with these CO2 biases. In the first case study, we estimate uncertainties of 0.5-7 ppm in monthly-averaged CO2 concentrations, depending upon location (95% confidence interval). These uncertainties correspond to 13-150% of the mean afternoon CO2 boundary layer enhancement at individual observation sites. When we remove error covariances, however, this range drops to 2-22%. Top-down studies that ignore these covariances could therefore underestimate the uncertainties and/or propagate transport errors into the flux estimate. In the second case study, we find that these month-long errors in atmospheric transport are anti-correlated with temperature and planetary boundary layer (PBL) height over terrestrial regions. In marine environments, by contrast, these errors are more strongly associated with weak zonal winds. Many errors, however, are not correlated with a single meteorological parameter, suggesting that a single meteorological proxy is

  9. Online-coupled meteorology and chemistry models: history, current status, and outlook

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The climate-chemistry-aerosol-cloud-radiation feedbacks are important processes occurring in the atmosphere. Accurately simulating those feedbacks requires fully-coupled meteorology, climate, and chemistry models and presents significant challenges in terms of both scientific understanding and computational demand. This paper reviews the history and current status of the development and application of online-coupled meteorology and chemistry models, with a focus on five representative models developed in the US including GATOR-GCMOM, WRF/Chem, CAM3, MIRAGE, and Caltech unified GCM. These models represent the current status and/or the state-of-the science treatments of online-coupled models worldwide. Their major model features, typical applications, and physical/chemical treatments are compared with a focus on model treatments of aerosol and cloud microphysics and aerosol-cloud interactions. Aerosol feedbacks to planetary boundary layer meteorology and aerosol indirect effects are illustrated with case studies for some of these models. Future research needs for model development, improvement, application, as well as major challenges for online-coupled models are discussed.

  10. The Impacts of Different Meteorology Data Sets on Nitrogen Fate and Transport in the SWAT Watershed Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this study, we investigated how different meteorology data sets impacts nitrogen fate and transport responses in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We used two meteorology data sets: National Climatic Data Center (observed) and Mesoscale Model 5/Weather Research ...

  11. Modelling regional scale surface fluxes, meteorology and CO2 mixing ratios for the Cabauw tower in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tolk, L. F.; Peters, W.; Meesters, A. G. C. A.; Groenendijk, M.; Vermeulen, A. T.; Steeneveld, G. J.; Dolman, A. J.

    2009-01-01

    We simulated meteorology and atmospheric CO2 transport over the Netherlands with the mesoscale model RAMS-Leaf3 coupled to the biospheric CO2 flux model 5PM. The results were compared with meteorological and CO2 observations, with emphasis on the tall tower of Cabauw. An analysis of the coupled exch

  12. Statistical Modeling for Wind-Temperature Meteorological Elements in Troposphere

    CERN Document Server

    Virtser, A; Golbraikh, E

    2010-01-01

    A comprehensive statistical model for vertical profiles of the horizontal wind and temperature throughout the troposphere is presented. The model is based on radiosonde measurements of wind and temperature during several years. The profiles measured under quite different atmospheric conditions exhibit qualitative similarity, and a proper choice of the reference scales for the wind, temperature and altitude levels allows to consider the measurement data as realizations of a random process with universal characteristics: means, the basic functions and parameters of standard distributions for transform coefficients of the Principal Component Analysis. The features of the atmospheric conditions are described by statistical characteristics of the wind-temperature ensemble of dimensional reference scales. The high effectiveness of the proposed approach is provided by a similarity of wind - temperature vertical profiles, which allow to carry out the statistical modeling in the low-dimension space of the dimensional ...

  13. MCCM-WEPS: Coupling of Meteorological, Air Quality and Erosion Models for Mexico City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz, E. N.; Tatarko, J.; Jazcilevich, A. D.; García, A. R.; Caetano, E.

    2007-05-01

    Since natural dust emissions are an important factor in the air quality of Mexico City, a modeling effort to quantify their sources and evaluate their impact on the population is presented. The meteorological and air quality model Multiscale Climate and Chemistry Model (MCCM) provides the meteorological inputs to the erosion model Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) that then provides the natural PM10 emissions to be transported. The system was developed to study the particles dispersion from natural sources (unprotected soils) as agricultural lands and Lake of Texcoco. These sources are located around the Valley of Mexico City. As a result of this research we developed a system with the capability of modeling the phenomenon of air pollution by natural particles emitted by wind erosion and to generate case study scenarios useful to propose control policies. Some of them are presented here. Also an effort to predict with anticipation this phenomenon is under way.

  14. Modeling the Effects of Meteorological Conditions on the Neutron Flux

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-22

    5.15) where N stands for a normal distribution. Because εi is random, Yi is random as well. It is often convenient to write equation 5.14...from the readings online so for the purpose of the model estimation the four missing values were imputed. Then all the data in MATLAB was placed into a...Naval Academy’s machine shop to be manufactured. By 21SEP17, the brackets where finished and ready to be mounted the station. But due to having

  15. Pairwise velocities in the "Running FLRW" cosmological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bibiano, Antonio; Croton, Darren J.

    2017-01-01

    We present an analysis of the pairwise velocity statistics from a suite of cosmological N-body simulations describing the "Running Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker" (R-FLRW) cosmological model. This model is based on quantum field theory in a curved space-time and extends ΛCDM with a time-evolving vacuum energy density, ρ _Λ. To enforce local conservation of matter a time-evolving gravitational coupling is also included. Our results constitute the first study of velocities in the R-FLRW cosmology, and we also compare with other dark energy simulations suites, repeating the same analysis. We find a strong degeneracy between the pairwise velocity and σ8 at z = 0 for almost all scenarios considered, which remains even when we look back to epochs as early as z = 2. We also investigate various Coupled Dark Energy models, some of which show minimal degeneracy, and reveal interesting deviations from ΛCDM which could be readily exploited by future cosmological observations to test and further constrain our understanding of dark energy.

  16. Matter density perturbation and power spectrum in running vacuum model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geng, Chao-Qiang; Lee, Chung-Chi

    2016-10-01

    We investigate the matter density perturbation δm and power spectrum P(k) in the running vacuum model (RVM) with the cosmological constant being a function of the Hubble parameter, given by Λ = Λ0 + 6σHH0 + 3νH2, in which the linear and quadratic terms of H would originate from the QCD vacuum condensation and cosmological renormalization group, respectively. Taking the dark energy perturbation into consideration, we derive the evolution equation for δm and find a specific scale dcr = 2π/kcr, which divides the evolution of the universe into the sub and super-interaction regimes, corresponding to k ≪ kcr and k ≫ kcr, respectively. For the former, the evolution of δm has the same behavior as that in the ΛCDM model, while for the latter, the growth of δm is frozen (greatly enhanced) when ν + σ > ( matter and dark energy. It is clear that the observational data rule out the cases with ν < 0 and ν + σ < 0, while the allowed window for the model parameters is extremely narrow with ν , |σ | ≲ {O}(10^{-7}).

  17. Cosmological models with running cosmological term and decaying dark matter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szydłowski, Marek; Stachowski, Aleksander

    2017-03-01

    We investigate the dynamics of the generalized ΛCDM model, which the Λ term is running with the cosmological time. On the example of the model Λ(t) =Λbare + α2/t2 we show the existence of a mechanism of the modification of the scaling law for energy density of dark matter: ρdm ∝a - 3 + λ(t). We use an approach developed by Urbanowski in which properties of unstable vacuum states are analyzed from the point of view of the quantum theory of unstable states. We discuss the evolution of Λ(t) term and pointed out that during the cosmic evolution there is a long phase in which this term is approximately constant. We also present the statistical analysis of both the Λ(t) CDM model with dark energy and decaying dark matter and the ΛCDM standard cosmological model. We use data such as Planck, SNIa, BAO, H(z) and AP test. While for the former we find the best fit value of the parameter Ωα2,0 is negative (energy transfer is from the dark matter to dark energy sector) and the parameter Ωα2,0 belongs to the interval (- 0 . 000040 , - 0 . 000383) at 2- σ level. The decaying dark matter causes to lowering a mass of dark matter particles which are lighter than CDM particles and remain relativistic. The rate of the process of decaying matter is estimated. Our model is consistent with the decaying mechanism producing unstable particles (e.g. sterile neutrinos) for which α2 is negative.

  18. Matter density perturbation and power spectrum in running vacuum model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geng, Chao-Qiang; Lee, Chung-Chi

    2017-01-01

    We investigate the matter density perturbation δm and power spectrum P(k) in the running vacuum model, with the cosmological constant being a function of the Hubble parameter, given by Λ = Λ0 + 6σHH0 + 3νH2, in which the linear and quadratic terms of H would originate from the QCD vacuum condensation and cosmological renormalization group, respectively. Taking the dark energy perturbation into consideration, we derive the evolution equation for δm and find a specific scale dcr = 2π/kcr, which divides the evolution of the universe into the sub-interaction and super-interaction regimes, corresponding to k ≪ kcr and k ≫ kcr, respectively. For the former, the evolution of δm has the same behaviour as that in the Λ cold dark model, while for the latter, the growth of δm is frozen (greatly enhanced) when ν + σ > (extremely narrow with ν , |σ | ≲ O(10^{-7}).

  19. First evidence of running cosmic vacuum: challenging the concordance model

    CERN Document Server

    Sola, Joan; Perez, Javier de Cruz

    2016-01-01

    Despite the fact that a rigid $\\Lambda$-term is a fundamental building block of the concordance $\\Lambda$CDM model, we show that a large class of cosmological scenarios with dynamical vacuum energy density $\\rho_{\\Lambda}$ and/or gravitational coupling $G$, together with a possible non-conservation of matter, are capable of seriously challenging the traditional phenomenological success of the $\\Lambda$CDM. In this Letter, we discuss these "running vacuum models" (RVM's), in which $\\rho_{\\Lambda}=\\rho_{\\Lambda}(H)$ consists of a nonvanishing constant term and a series of powers of the Hubble rate. Such generic structure is potentially linked to the quantum field theoretical description of the expanding Universe. By performing an overall fit to the cosmological observables $SNIa+BAO+H(z)+LSS+BBN+CMB$ (in which the WMAP9, Planck 2013 and Planck 2015 data are taken into account), we find that the RVM's appear definitely more favored than the $\\Lambda$CDM, namely at an unprecedented level of $\\sim 4\\sigma$, implyi...

  20. Sensitivity of chemical tracers to meteorological parameters in the MOZART-3 chemical transport model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnison, D. E.; Brasseur, G. P.; Walters, S.; Garcia, R. R.; Marsh, D. R.; Sassi, F.; Harvey, V. L.; Randall, C. E.; Emmons, L.; Lamarque, J. F.; Hess, P.; Orlando, J. J.; Tie, X. X.; Randel, W.; Pan, L. L.; Gettelman, A.; Granier, C.; Diehl, T.; Niemeier, U.; Simmons, A. J.

    2007-10-01

    The Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 3 (MOZART-3), which represents the chemical and physical processes from the troposphere through the lower mesosphere, was used to evaluate the representation of long-lived tracers and ozone using three different meteorological fields. The meteorological fields are based on (1) the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 1b (WACCM1b), (2) the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis, and (3) a new reanalysis for year 2000 from ECMWF called EXP471. Model-derived tracers (methane, water vapor, and total inorganic nitrogen) and ozone are compared to data climatologies from satellites. Model mean age of air was also derived and compared to in situ CO2 and SF6 data. A detailed analysis of the chemical fields simulated by MOZART-3 shows that even though the general features characterizing the three dynamical sets are rather similar, slight differences in winds and temperature can produce substantial differences in the calculated distributions of chemical tracers. The MOZART-3 simulations that use meteorological fields from WACCM1b and ECMWF EXP471 represented best the distribution of long-lived tracers and mean age of air in the stratosphere. There was a significant improvement using the ECMWF EXP471 reanalysis data product over the ECMWF operational data product. The effect of the quasi-biennial oscillation circulation on long-lived tracers and ozone is examined.

  1. Dynamic downscaling of the ERA-40 data using a mesoscale meteorological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. PAPADOPOULOS

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A sophisticated downscaling procedure that was applied to reproduce high resolution historical records of the atmospheric conditions across the Mediterranean region is presented in this paper. This was accomplished by the dynamical downscaling of the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts ERA-40 reanalyses with the aid of the atmospheric model of the POSEIDON weather forecasting system. The full three dimensional atmospheric fields with 6 hours of temporal resolution and the surface meteorological parameters at hourly intervals were produced for a 10-year period (1995-2004. The meteorological variables are readily available at 10 km resolution and may constitute the atmospheric forcing to drive wave, ocean hydrodynamic and hydrological models, as well as the baseline data for environmental impact assessment studies. A brief overview of the procedure and a quantitative estimation of the benefit of the new dynamical downscaling dataset are presented.

  2. Forecasting river discharge using coupled WRF-NMM meteorological model and HBV runoff model, case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekić, L.; Mihalović, A.; Jovičić, I.; Vladiković, D.; Jerinić, J.; Ivković, M.

    2012-04-01

    This paper examines two episodes of heavy rainfall and significantly increased water levels. The first case relates to the period including the beginning and the end of the third decade of June 2010 at the Kolubara river basin, where extreme rainfall led to two big flood waves on the Kolubara river, whereat water levels exceeded both regular and extraordinary flood defence and approached their historical maximum. The second case relates to the period including the end of November and the beginning of December 2010 at the Jadar river basin, where heavier precipitation caused the water levels of the basin to reach and surpass the occurrence limit (warning level). The HBV (Hydrological Bureau Waterbalance-section) rainfall/snowmelt - runoff model installed at the RHMSS uses gridded quantitative precipitation and air temperature forecast for 72 hours in advance based on meteorological weather forecast WRF-NMM mesoscale model. Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) core of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system is flexible state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model capable to describe and estimate powerful nonhydrostatic mechanism in convective clouds that cause heavy rain. The HBV model is a semi-distributed conceptual catchment model in which the spatial structure of a catchment area is not explicitly modelled. Instead, the sub-basin represents a primary modelling unit while the basin is characterised by area-elevation distribution and classification of vegetation cover and land use distributed by height zone. WRF-NMM forecast shows very good agreement with observations in terms of timing, location and amount of precipitation. They are used as input for HBV model, forecasted discharges at the output profile of the selected river basin represent model output for consideration. 1 Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia

  3. Application of WRF/Chem-MADRID and WRF/Polyphemus in Europe – Part 1: Model description, evaluation of meteorological predictions, and aerosol–meteorology interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Comprehensive model evaluation and comparison of two 3-D air quality modeling systems (i.e., the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF/Polyphemus and WRF with chemistry and the Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ionization, and Dissolution (MADRID (WRF/Chem-MADRID are conducted over Western Europe. Part 1 describes the background information for the model comparison and simulation design, the application of WRF for January and July 2001 over triple-nested domains in Western Europe at three horizontal grid resolutions: 0.5°, 0.125°, and 0.025°, and the effect of aerosol/meteorology interactions on meteorological predictions. Nine simulated meteorological variables (i.e., downward shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes (SWDOWN and LWDOWN, outgoing longwave radiation flux (OLR, temperature at 2 m (T2, specific humidity at 2 m (Q2, relative humidity at 2 m (RH2, wind speed at 10 m (WS10, wind direction at 10 m (WD10, and precipitation (Precip are evaluated using available observations in terms of spatial distribution, domainwide daily and site-specific hourly variations, and domainwide performance statistics. The vertical profiles of temperature, dew points, and wind speed/direction are also evaluated using sounding data. WRF demonstrates its capability in capturing diurnal/seasonal variations and spatial gradients and vertical profiles of major meteorological variables. While the domainwide performance of LWDOWN, OLR, T2, Q2, and RH2 at all three grid resolutions is satisfactory overall, large positive or negative biases occur in SWDOWN, WS10, and Precip even at 0.125° or 0.025° in both months and in WD10 in January. In addition, discrepancies between simulations and observations exist in T2, Q2, WS10, and Precip at mountain/high altitude sites and large urban center sites in both months, in particular, during snow events or thunderstorms. These results indicate the model's difficulty in capturing meteorological variables in complex

  4. Evolution of ozone, particulates, and aerosol direct radiative forcing in the vicinity of Houston using a fully coupled meteorology-chemistry-aerosol model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fast, Jerome D.; Gustafson, William I.; Easter, Richard C.; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Barnard, James C.; Chapman, Elaine G.; Grell, Georg A.; Peckham, Steven E.

    2006-11-01

    A new fully coupled meteorology-chemistry-aerosol model is used to simulate the urban- to regional-scale variations in trace gases, particulates, and aerosol direct radiative forcing in the vicinity of Houston over a 5 day summer period. Model performance is evaluated using a wide range of meteorological, chemistry, and particulate measurements obtained during the 2000 Texas Air Quality Study. The predicted trace gas and particulate distributions were qualitatively similar to the surface and aircraft measurements with considerable spatial variations resulting from urban, power plant, and industrial sources of primary pollutants. Sulfate, organic carbon, and other inorganics were the largest constituents of the predicted particulates. The predicted shortwave radiation was 30 to 40 W m-2 closer to the observations when the aerosol optical properties were incorporated into the shortwave radiation scheme; however, the predicted hourly aerosol radiative forcing was still underestimated by 10 to 50 W m-2. The predicted aerosol radiative forcing was larger over Houston and the industrial ship channel than over the rural areas, consistent with surface measurements. The differences between the observed and simulated aerosol radiative forcing resulted from transport errors, relative humidity errors in the upper convective boundary layer that affect aerosol water content, secondary organic aerosols that were not yet included in the model, and uncertainties in the primary particulate emission rates. The current model was run in a predictive mode and demonstrates the challenges of accurately simulating all of the meteorological, chemical, and aerosol parameters over urban to regional scales that can affect aerosol radiative forcing.

  5. First Evidence of Running Cosmic Vacuum: Challenging the Concordance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solà, Joan; Gómez-Valent, Adrià; de Cruz Pérez, Javier

    2017-02-01

    Despite the fact that a rigid {{Λ }}-term is a fundamental building block of the concordance ΛCDM model, we show that a large class of cosmological scenarios with dynamical vacuum energy density {ρ }{{Λ }} together with a dynamical gravitational coupling G or a possible non-conservation of matter, are capable of seriously challenging the traditional phenomenological success of the ΛCDM. In this paper, we discuss these “running vacuum models” (RVMs), in which {ρ }{{Λ }}={ρ }{{Λ }}(H) consists of a nonvanishing constant term and a series of powers of the Hubble rate. Such generic structure is potentially linked to the quantum field theoretical description of the expanding universe. By performing an overall fit to the cosmological observables SN Ia+BAO+H(z)+LSS+BBN+CMB (in which the WMAP9, Planck 2013, and Planck 2015 data are taken into account), we find that the class of RVMs appears significantly more favored than the ΛCDM, namely, at an unprecedented level of ≳ 4.2σ . Furthermore, the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria confirm that the dynamical RVMs are strongly preferred compared to the conventional rigid {{Λ }}-picture of the cosmic evolution.

  6. The running coupling of the minimal sextet composite Higgs model

    CERN Document Server

    Fodor, Zoltan; Kuti, Julius; Mondal, Santanu; Nogradi, Daniel; Wong, Chik Him

    2015-01-01

    We compute the renormalized running coupling of SU(3) gauge theory coupled to N_f = 2 flavors of massless Dirac fermions in the 2-index-symmetric (sextet) representation. This model is of particular interest as a minimal realization of the strongly interacting composite Higgs scenario. A recently proposed finite volume gradient flow scheme is used. The calculations are performed at several lattice spacings with two different implementations of the gradient flow allowing for a controlled continuum extrapolation and particular attention is paid to estimating the systematic uncertainties. For small values of the renormalized coupling our results for the beta-function agree with perturbation theory. For moderate couplings we observe a downward deviation relative to the 2-loop beta-function but in the coupling range where the continuum extrapolation is fully under control we do not observe an infrared fixed point. The explored range includes the locations of the zero of the 3-loop and the 4-loop beta-functions in ...

  7. 2013 CEF RUN - PHASE 1 DATA ANALYSIS AND MODEL VALIDATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, A.

    2014-05-08

    Phase 1 of the 2013 Cold cap Evaluation Furnace (CEF) test was completed on June 3, 2013 after a 5-day round-the-clock feeding and pouring operation. The main goal of the test was to characterize the CEF off-gas produced from a nitric-formic acid flowsheet feed and confirm whether the CEF platform is capable of producing scalable off-gas data necessary for the revision of the DWPF melter off-gas flammability model; the revised model will be used to define new safety controls on the key operating parameters for the nitric-glycolic acid flowsheet feeds including total organic carbon (TOC). Whether the CEF off-gas data were scalable for the purpose of predicting the potential flammability of the DWPF melter exhaust was determined by comparing the predicted H{sub 2} and CO concentrations using the current DWPF melter off-gas flammability model to those measured during Phase 1; data were deemed scalable if the calculated fractional conversions of TOC-to-H{sub 2} and TOC-to-CO at varying melter vapor space temperatures were found to trend and further bound the respective measured data with some margin of safety. Being scalable thus means that for a given feed chemistry the instantaneous flow rates of H{sub 2} and CO in the DWPF melter exhaust can be estimated with some degree of conservatism by multiplying those of the respective gases from a pilot-scale melter by the feed rate ratio. This report documents the results of the Phase 1 data analysis and the necessary calculations performed to determine the scalability of the CEF off-gas data. A total of six steady state runs were made during Phase 1 under non-bubbled conditions by varying the CEF vapor space temperature from near 700 to below 300°C, as measured in a thermowell (T{sub tw}). At each steady state temperature, the off-gas composition was monitored continuously for two hours using MS, GC, and FTIR in order to track mainly H{sub 2}, CO, CO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, and organic gases such as CH{sub 4}. The standard

  8. 2013 CEF RUN - PHASE 1 DATA ANALYSIS AND MODEL VALIDATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, A.

    2014-05-08

    Phase 1 of the 2013 Cold cap Evaluation Furnace (CEF) test was completed on June 3, 2013 after a 5-day round-the-clock feeding and pouring operation. The main goal of the test was to characterize the CEF off-gas produced from a nitric-formic acid flowsheet feed and confirm whether the CEF platform is capable of producing scalable off-gas data necessary for the revision of the DWPF melter off-gas flammability model; the revised model will be used to define new safety controls on the key operating parameters for the nitric-glycolic acid flowsheet feeds including total organic carbon (TOC). Whether the CEF off-gas data were scalable for the purpose of predicting the potential flammability of the DWPF melter exhaust was determined by comparing the predicted H{sub 2} and CO concentrations using the current DWPF melter off-gas flammability model to those measured during Phase 1; data were deemed scalable if the calculated fractional conversions of TOC-to-H{sub 2} and TOC-to-CO at varying melter vapor space temperatures were found to trend and further bound the respective measured data with some margin of safety. Being scalable thus means that for a given feed chemistry the instantaneous flow rates of H{sub 2} and CO in the DWPF melter exhaust can be estimated with some degree of conservatism by multiplying those of the respective gases from a pilot-scale melter by the feed rate ratio. This report documents the results of the Phase 1 data analysis and the necessary calculations performed to determine the scalability of the CEF off-gas data. A total of six steady state runs were made during Phase 1 under non-bubbled conditions by varying the CEF vapor space temperature from near 700 to below 300°C, as measured in a thermowell (T{sub tw}). At each steady state temperature, the off-gas composition was monitored continuously for two hours using MS, GC, and FTIR in order to track mainly H{sub 2}, CO, CO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, and organic gases such as CH{sub 4}. The standard

  9. Modeling drought impact occurrence based on meteorological drought indices in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagge, James H.; Kohn, Irene; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stahl, Kerstin

    2015-11-01

    There is a vital need for research that links meteorological drought indices with drought impacts felt on the ground. Previously, this link has been estimated based on experience or defined based on very narrow impact measures. This study expands on earlier work by showing the feasibility of relating user-provided impact reports with meteorological drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, through logistic regression, while controlling for seasonal and interannual effects. Analysis includes four impact types, spanning agriculture, energy and industry, public water supply, and freshwater ecosystem across five European countries. Statistically significant climate indices are retained as predictors using step-wise regression and used to compare the most relevant drought indices and accumulation periods across different impact types and regions. Agricultural impacts are explained by 2-12 month anomalies, though anomalies greater than 3 months are likely related to agricultural management practices. Energy and industrial impacts, typically related to hydropower and energy cooling water, respond slower (6-12 months). Public water supply and freshwater ecosystem impacts are explained by a more complex combination of short (1-3 month) and seasonal (6-12 month) anomalies. The resulting drought impact models have both good model fit (pseudo-R2 = 0.225-0.716) and predictive ability, highlighting the feasibility of using such models to predict drought impact likelihood based on meteorological drought indices.

  10. Modelling of Muscle Force Distributions During Barefoot and Shod Running

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinclair Jonathan

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Research interest in barefoot running has expanded considerably in recent years, based around the notion that running without shoes is associated with a reduced incidence of chronic injuries. The aim of the current investigation was to examine the differences in the forces produced by different skeletal muscles during barefoot and shod running. Fifteen male participants ran at 4.0 m·s-1 (± 5%. Kinematics were measured using an eight camera motion analysis system alongside ground reaction force parameters. Differences in sagittal plane kinematics and muscle forces between footwear conditions were examined using repeated measures or Freidman’s ANOVA. The kinematic analysis showed that the shod condition was associated with significantly more hip flexion, whilst barefoot running was linked with significantly more flexion at the knee and plantarflexion at the ankle. The examination of muscle kinetics indicated that peak forces from Rectus femoris, Vastus medialis, Vastus lateralis, Tibialis anterior were significantly larger in the shod condition whereas Gastrocnemius forces were significantly larger during barefoot running. These observations provide further insight into the mechanical alterations that runners make when running without shoes. Such findings may also deliver important information to runners regarding their susceptibility to chronic injuries in different footwear conditions.

  11. Modelling of Muscle Force Distributions During Barefoot and Shod Running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinclair, Jonathan; Atkins, Stephen; Richards, Jim; Vincent, Hayley

    2015-09-29

    Research interest in barefoot running has expanded considerably in recent years, based around the notion that running without shoes is associated with a reduced incidence of chronic injuries. The aim of the current investigation was to examine the differences in the forces produced by different skeletal muscles during barefoot and shod running. Fifteen male participants ran at 4.0 m·s-1 (± 5%). Kinematics were measured using an eight camera motion analysis system alongside ground reaction force parameters. Differences in sagittal plane kinematics and muscle forces between footwear conditions were examined using repeated measures or Freidman's ANOVA. The kinematic analysis showed that the shod condition was associated with significantly more hip flexion, whilst barefoot running was linked with significantly more flexion at the knee and plantarflexion at the ankle. The examination of muscle kinetics indicated that peak forces from Rectus femoris, Vastus medialis, Vastus lateralis, Tibialis anterior were significantly larger in the shod condition whereas Gastrocnemius forces were significantly larger during barefoot running. These observations provide further insight into the mechanical alterations that runners make when running without shoes. Such findings may also deliver important information to runners regarding their susceptibility to chronic injuries in different footwear conditions.

  12. Dynamical system approach to running Λ cosmological models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stachowski, Aleksander [Jagiellonian University, Astronomical Observatory, Krakow (Poland); Szydlowski, Marek [Jagiellonian University, Astronomical Observatory, Krakow (Poland); Jagiellonian University, Mark Kac Complex Systems Research Centre, Krakow (Poland)

    2016-11-15

    We study the dynamics of cosmological models with a time dependent cosmological term. We consider five classes of models; two with the non-covariant parametrization of the cosmological term Λ: Λ(H)CDM cosmologies, Λ(a)CDM cosmologies, and three with the covariant parametrization of Λ: Λ(R)CDM cosmologies, where R(t) is the Ricci scalar, Λ(φ)-cosmologies with diffusion, Λ(X)-cosmologies, where X = (1)/(2)g{sup αβ}∇{sub α}∇{sub β}φ is a kinetic part of the density of the scalar field. We also consider the case of an emergent Λ(a) relation obtained from the behaviour of trajectories in a neighbourhood of an invariant submanifold. In the study of the dynamics we used dynamical system methods for investigating how an evolutionary scenario can depend on the choice of special initial conditions. We show that the methods of dynamical systems allow one to investigate all admissible solutions of a running Λ cosmology for all initial conditions. We interpret Alcaniz and Lima's approach as a scaling cosmology. We formulate the idea of an emergent cosmological term derived directly from an approximation of the exact dynamics. We show that some non-covariant parametrization of the cosmological term like Λ(a), Λ(H) gives rise to the non-physical behaviour of trajectories in the phase space. This behaviour disappears if the term Λ(a) is emergent from the covariant parametrization. (orig.)

  13. Predicting residential air exchange rates from questionnaires and meteorology: model evaluation in central North Carolina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breen, Michael S; Breen, Miyuki; Williams, Ronald W; Schultz, Bradley D

    2010-12-15

    A critical aspect of air pollution exposure models is the estimation of the air exchange rate (AER) of individual homes, where people spend most of their time. The AER, which is the airflow into and out of a building, is a primary mechanism for entry of outdoor air pollutants and removal of indoor source emissions. The mechanistic Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) AER model was linked to a leakage area model to predict AER from questionnaires and meteorology. The LBL model was also extended to include natural ventilation (LBLX). Using literature-reported parameter values, AER predictions from LBL and LBLX models were compared to data from 642 daily AER measurements across 31 detached homes in central North Carolina, with corresponding questionnaires and meteorological observations. Data was collected on seven consecutive days during each of four consecutive seasons. For the individual model-predicted and measured AER, the median absolute difference was 43% (0.17 h(-1)) and 40% (0.17 h(-1)) for the LBL and LBLX models, respectively. Additionally, a literature-reported empirical scale factor (SF) AER model was evaluated, which showed a median absolute difference of 50% (0.25 h(-1)). The capability of the LBL, LBLX, and SF models could help reduce the AER uncertainty in air pollution exposure models used to develop exposure metrics for health studies.

  14. A meteorological potential forecast model for acid rain in Fujian Province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yi Yong; Lin, Chang Cheng; Liu, Jing Xiong; Wu, De Hui; Lian, Dong Ying; Chen, Bin Bin

    2010-05-01

    Based on the acid rain and concurrent meteorological observational data during the past 10 years in Fujian Province, China, the dependence of distribution characteristics of acid rain on season, rain rate, weather pattern and dominant airflow in four regions of Fujian Province is analyzed. On the annual average, the acid rain frequency is the highest (above 40%) in the southern and mid-eastern regions, and the lowest (16.2%) in the western region. The acid rain occurs most frequently in spring and winter, and least frequent in summer. The acid rain frequency in general increases with the increase of precipitation. It also depend on the direction of dominant airflows at 850 hPa. In the mid-eastern region, more than 40% acid rains appear when the dominant wind directions are NW, W, SW, S and SE. In the southern region, high acid rain occurrence happens when the dominant wind directions are NW, W, SW and S. In the northern region, 41.8% acid rains occur when the southwesterly is pronounced. In the western region, the southwesterly is associated with a 17% acid rain rate. The examination of meteorological sounding conditions over Fuzhou, Xiamen and Shaowu cities shows that the acid rain frequency increases with increased inversion thickness. Based on the results above, a meteorological potential forecast model for acid rain is established and tested in 2007. The result is encouraging. The model provides an objective basis for the development of acid rain forecasting operation in the province.

  15. The impact of MM5 and WRF meteorology over complex terrain on CHIMERE model calculations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. de Meij

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of meteorological input data on calculated gas and aerosol concentrations. We use two different meteorological models (MM5 and WRF together with the chemistry transport model CHIMERE. We focus on the Po valley area (Italy for January and June 2005.

    Firstly we evaluate the meteorological parameters with observations. The analysis shows that the performance of both models is similar, however some small differences are still noticeable.

    Secondly, we analyze the impact of using MM5 and WRF on calculated PM10 and O3 concentrations. In general CHIMERE/MM5 and CHIMERE/WRF underestimate the PM10 concentrations for January. The difference in PM10 concentrations for January between CHIMERE/MM5 and CHIMERE/WRF is around a factor 1.6 (PM10 higher for CHIMERE/MM5. This difference and the larger underestimation in PM10 concentrations by CHIMERE/WRF are related to the differences in heat fluxes and the resulting PBL heights calculated by WRF. In general the PBL height by WRF meteorology is a factor 2.8 higher at noon in January than calculated by MM5. This study showed that the difference in microphysics scheme has an impact on the profile of cloud liquid water (CLW calculated by the meteorological driver and therefore on the production of SO4 aerosol.

    A sensitivity analysis shows that changing the Noah Land Surface Model (LSM for the 5-layer soil temperature model, the calculated monthly mean PM10 concentrations increase by 30%, due to the change in the heat fluxes and the resulting PBL heights.

    For June, PM10 calculated concentrations by CHIMERE/MM5 and CHIMERE/WRF are similar and agree with the observations. Calculated O3 values for June are in general overestimated by a factor 1.3 by CHIMERE/MM5 and CHIMRE/WRF. The reason for this is that daytime NO2

  16. MODELING OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GROUNDWATER FLOW AND OTHER METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES USING FUZZY LOGIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şaban YURTÇU

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, modeling of the effect of rainfall, flow and evaporation as independent variables on the change of underground water levels as dependent variables were investigated by fuzzy logic (FL. In the study, total 396 values taken from six observation stations belong to Afyon inferior basin in Akarçay from 1977 to 1989 years were used. Using the monthly average values of stations, the change of underground water level was modeled by FL. It is observed that the results obtained from FL and the observations are compatible with each other. This shows FL modeling can be used to estimate groundwater levels from the appropriate meteorological value.

  17. A Meteorological Information Mining-Based Wind Speed Model for Adequacy Assessment of Power Systems With Wind Power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Yifei; Gao, Houlei; Wu, Qiuwei

    2017-01-01

    factors are calculated. Secondly, the meteorological data are classified into several states using an improved Fuzzy C-means (FCM) algorithm. Then the Markov chain is used to model the chronological characteristics of meteorological states and wind speed. The proposed model was proved to be more accurate......Accurate wind speed simulation is an essential prerequisite to analyze the power systems with wind power. A wind speed model considering meteorological conditions and seasonal variations is proposed in this paper. Firstly, using the path analysis method, the influence weights of meteorological...... in capturing the characteristics of probability distribution, auto-correlation and seasonal variations of wind speed compared with the traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. Furthermore, the proposed model was applied to adequacy assessment of generation...

  18. Clustering of Synoptic Pattern over the Korean Peninsula from Meteorological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jinah; Heo, Kiyoung; Choi, Jungwoon; Jung, Sanghoon

    2017-04-01

    Numerical modeling data on meteorological and ocean science is one of example of big geographic data sources. The properties of the data including the volume, variety, and dynamic aspects pose new challenges for geographic visualization, and visual geoanalytics using big data analysis using machine learning method. A combination of algorithmic and visual approaches that make sense of large volumes of various types of spatiotemporal data are required to gain knowledge about complex phenomena. In the East coast of Korea, it is suffering from property damages and human causalities due to abnormal high waves (swell-like high-height waves). It is known to be caused by local meteorological conditions on the East Sea of Korean Peninsula in previous research and they proposed three kinds of pressure patterns that generate abnormal high waves. However, they cannot describe all kinds of pressure patterns that generate abnormal high waves. In our study, we propose unsupervised machine learning method for pattern clustering and applied it to classify a pattern which has occurred abnormal high waves using numerical meteorological model's reanalysis data from 2000 to 2015 and past historical records of accidents by abnormal high waves. About 25,000 patterns of total spatial distribution of sea surface pressure are clustered into 30 patterns and they are classified into seasonal sea level pressure patterns based on meteorological characteristics of Korean peninsula. Moreover, in order to determine the representative patterns which occurs abnormal high waves, we classified it again using historical accidents cases among the winter season pressure patterns. In this work, we clustered synoptic pattern over the Korean Peninsula in meteorological modeling reanalysis data and we could understand a seasonal variation through identifying the occurrence of clustered synoptic pattern. For the future work, we have to identify the relationship of wave modeling data for better understanding

  19. Horizontal mixing coefficients for two-dimensional chemical models calculated from National Meteorological Center Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, P. A.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Plumb, R. A.

    1986-01-01

    Calculations of the two-dimensional, species-independent mixing coefficients for two-dimensional chemical models for the troposphere and stratosphere are performed using quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity fluxes and gradients from 4 years of National Meteorological Center data for the four seasons in both hemispheres. Results show that the horizontal mixing coefficient values for the winter lower stratosphere are broadly consistent with those currently employed in two-dimensional models, but the horizontal mixing coefficient values in the northern winter upper stratosphere are much larger than those usually used.

  20. Approaches in highly parameterized inversion - GENIE, a general model-independent TCP/IP run manager

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muffels, Christopher T.; Schreuder, Willem A.; Doherty, John E.; Karanovic, Marinko; Tonkin, Matthew J.; Hunt, Randall J.; Welter, David E.

    2012-01-01

    GENIE is a model-independent suite of programs that can be used to generally distribute, manage, and execute multiple model runs via the TCP/IP infrastructure. The suite consists of a file distribution interface, a run manage, a run executer, and a routine that can be compiled as part of a program and used to exchange model runs with the run manager. Because communication is via a standard protocol (TCP/IP), any computer connected to the Internet can serve in any of the capacities offered by this suite. Model independence is consistent with the existing template and instruction file protocols of the widely used PEST parameter estimation program. This report describes (1) the problem addressed; (2) the approach used by GENIE to queue, distribute, and retrieve model runs; and (3) user instructions, classes, and functions developed. It also includes (4) an example to illustrate the linking of GENIE with Parallel PEST using the interface routine.

  1. Predictive modelling of running and dwell times in railway traffic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kecman, P.; Goverde, R.M.P.

    2015-01-01

    Accurate estimation of running and dwell times is important for all levels of planning and control of railway traffic. The availability of historical track occupation data with a high degree of granularity inspired a data-driven approach for estimating these process times. In this paper we present

  2. Multi-output ANN Model for Prediction of Seven Meteorological Parameters in a Weather Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raza, Khalid; Jothiprakash, V.

    2014-12-01

    The meteorological parameters plays a vital role for determining various water demand in the water resource systems, planning, management and operation. Thus, accurate prediction of meteorological variables at different spatial and temporal intervals is the key requirement. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one of the most widely used data driven modelling techniques with lots of good features like, easy applications, high accuracy in prediction and to predict the multi-output complex non-linear relationships. In this paper, a Multi-input Multi-output (MIMO) ANN model has been developed and applied to predict seven important meteorological parameters, such as maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours, dew point temperature and evaporation concurrently. Several types of ANN, such as multilayer perceptron, generalized feedforward neural network, radial basis function and recurrent neural network with multi hidden layer and varying number of neurons at the hidden layer, has been developed, trained, validated and tested. From the results, it is found that the recurrent MIMO-ANN having 28 neurons in a single hidden layer, trained using hyperbolic tangent transfer function with a learning rate of 0.3 and momentum factor of 0.7 performed well over the other types of MIMO-ANN models. The MIMO ANN model performed well for all parameters with higher correlation and other performance indicators except for sunshine hours. Due to erratic nature, the importance of each of the input over the output through sensitivity analysis indicated that relative humidity has highest influence while others have equal influence over the output.

  3. Linear Multivariable Regression Models for Prediction of Eddy Dissipation Rate from Available Meteorological Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    MCKissick, Burnell T. (Technical Monitor); Plassman, Gerald E.; Mall, Gerald H.; Quagliano, John R.

    2005-01-01

    Linear multivariable regression models for predicting day and night Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) from available meteorological data sources are defined and validated. Model definition is based on a combination of 1997-2000 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) data sources, EDR from Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) deployment data, and regression variables primarily from corresponding Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) data. Model validation is accomplished through EDR predictions on a similar combination of 1994-1995 Memphis (MEM) AVOSS and ASOS data. Model forms include an intercept plus a single term of fixed optimal power for each of these regression variables; 30-minute forward averaged mean and variance of near-surface wind speed and temperature, variance of wind direction, and a discrete cloud cover metric. Distinct day and night models, regressing on EDR and the natural log of EDR respectively, yield best performance and avoid model discontinuity over day/night data boundaries.

  4. Ground-based remote sensing profiling and numerical weather prediction model to manage nuclear power plants meteorological surveillance in Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Calpini

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The meteorological surveillance of the four nuclear power plants in Switzerland is of first importance in a densely populated area such as the Swiss Plateau. The project "Centrales Nucléaires et Météorologie" CN-MET aimed at providing a new security tool based on one hand on the development of a high resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP model. The latter is providing essential nowcasting information in case of a radioactive release from a nuclear power plant in Switzerland. On the other hand, the model input over the Swiss Plateau is generated by a dedicated network of surface and upper air observations including remote sensing instruments (wind profilers and temperature/humidity passive microwave radiometers. This network is built upon three main sites ideally located for measuring the inflow/outflow and central conditions of the main wind field in the planetary boundary layer over the Swiss Plateau, as well as a number of surface automatic weather stations (AWS. The network data are assimilated in real-time into the fine grid NWP model using a rapid update cycle of eight runs per day (one forecast every three hours. This high resolution NWP model has replaced the former security tool based on in situ observations (in particular one meteorological mast at each of the power plants and a local dispersion model. It is used to forecast the dynamics of the atmosphere in the planetary boundary layer (typically the first 4 km above ground layer and over a time scale of 24 h. This tool provides at any time (e.g. starting at the initial time of a nuclear power plant release the best picture of the 24-h evolution of the air mass over the Swiss Plateau and furthermore generates the input data (in the form of simulated values substituting in situ observations required for the local dispersion model used at each of the nuclear power plants locations. This paper is presenting the concept and two validation studies as well as the results of an

  5. Statistical modeling of phenological phases in Poland based on coupling satellite derived products and gridded meteorological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czernecki, Bartosz; Jabłońska, Katarzyna; Nowosad, Jakub

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the study was to create and evaluate different statistical models for reconstructing and predicting selected phenological phases. This issue is of particular importance in Poland where national-wide phenological monitoring was abandoned in the middle of 1990s and the reactivated network was established in 2006. Authors decided to evaluate possibilities of using a wide-range of statistical modeling techniques to create synthetic archive dataset. Additionally, a robust tool for predicting the most distinguishable phenophases using only free of charge data as predictors was created. Study period covers the years 2007-2014 and contains only quality-controlled dataset of 10 species and 14 phenophases. Phenological data used in this study originates from the manual observations network run by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB). Three kind of data sources were used as predictors: (i) satellite derived products, (ii) preprocessed gridded meteorological data, and (iii) spatial properties (longitude, latitude, altitude) of the monitoring site. Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) level-3 vegetation products were used for detecting onset dates of particular phenophases. Following indices were used: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Leaf Area Index (LAI), and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fPAR). Additionally, Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) products were chosen to detect occurrence of snow cover. Due to highly noisy data, authors decided to take into account pixel reliability information. Besides satellite derived products (NDVI, EVI, FPAR, LAI, Snow cover), a wide group of observational data and agrometeorological indices derived from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D) were used as a potential predictors: cumulative growing degree days (GDD), cumulative growing precipitation days (GPD

  6. Short-run and Current Analysis Model in Statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Anghelache

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Using the short-run statistic indicators is a compulsory requirement implied in the current analysis. Therefore, there is a system of EUROSTAT indicators on short run which has been set up in this respect, being recommended for utilization by the member-countries. On the basis of these indicators, there are regular, usually monthly, analysis being achieved in respect of: the production dynamic determination; the evaluation of the short-run investment volume; the development of the turnover; the wage evolution: the employment; the price indexes and the consumer price index (inflation; the volume of exports and imports and the extent to which the imports are covered by the exports and the sold of trade balance. The EUROSTAT system of indicators of conjuncture is conceived as an open system, so that it can be, at any moment extended or restricted, allowing indicators to be amended or even removed, depending on the domestic users requirements as well as on the specific requirements of the harmonization and integration. For the short-run analysis, there is also the World Bank system of indicators of conjuncture, which is utilized, relying on the data sources offered by the World Bank, The World Institute for Resources or other international organizations statistics. The system comprises indicators of the social and economic development and focuses on the indicators for the following three fields: human resources, environment and economic performances. At the end of the paper, there is a case study on the situation of Romania, for which we used all these indicators.

  7. Short-run and Current Analysis Model in Statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Mitrut

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Using the short-run statistic indicators is a compulsory requirement implied in the current analysis. Therefore, there is a system of EUROSTAT indicators on short run which has been set up in this respect, being recommended for utilization by the member-countries. On the basis of these indicators, there are regular, usually monthly, analysis being achieved in respect of: the production dynamic determination; the evaluation of the short-run investment volume; the development of the turnover; the wage evolution: the employment; the price indexes and the consumer price index (inflation; the volume of exports and imports and the extent to which the imports are covered by the exports and the sold of trade balance. The EUROSTAT system of indicators of conjuncture is conceived as an open system, so that it can be, at any moment extended or restricted, allowing indicators to be amended or even removed, depending on the domestic users requirements as well as on the specific requirements of the harmonization and integration. For the short-run analysis, there is also the World Bank system of indicators of conjuncture, which is utilized, relying on the data sources offered by the World Bank, The World Institute for Resources or other international organizations statistics. The system comprises indicators of the social and economic development and focuses on the indicators for the following three fields: human resources, environment and economic performances. At the end of the paper, there is a case study on the situation of Romania, for which we used all these indicators.

  8. Price Dispersion and Short Run Equilibrium in a Queuing Model

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Sattinger

    2003-01-01

    Price dispersion is analyzed in the context of a queuing market where customers enter queues to acquire a good or service and may experience delays. With menu costs, price dispersion arises and can persist in the medium and long run. The queuing market rations goods in the same way whether firm prices are optimal or not. Price dispersion reduces the rate at which customers get the good and reduces customer welfare.

  9. A high-resolution coupled meteorology-smoke modeling system HRRR-Smoke to simulate air quality over the CONUS domain in real time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadov, Ravan; Grell, Georg; James, Eric; Freitas, Saulo; Pereira, Gabriel; Csiszar, Ivan; Tsidulko, Marina; Pierce, Brad; McKeen, Stuart; Peckham, Steven; Alexander, Curtis; Saide, Pablo; Benjamin, Stan

    2017-04-01

    In this talk we discuss a new smoke modeling system High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR-Smoke) to simulate biomass burning (BB) emissions, plume rise and smoke transport in real time. The HRRR (without smoke) is run operational at the National Weather Service, and includes an aerosol aware microphysics scheme. It is NOAA/ESRL's version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Here we make use of WRF-Chem (the WRF model coupled with chemistry) and simulate fine particulate matter (PM2.5 or smoke) emissions emitted by BB as well as anthropogenic sources. The model also includes dry and wet deposition of aerosols. The modeling system ingests fire radiative power (FRP) data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor to calculate BB emissions. Using the FRP data and simulated meteorology the model calculates plume rise in an online mode. The HRRR-Smoke model has been running in real-time, originally without any feedback effects, since June 2016 on 3km horizontal grid resolution over the contiguous US (CONUS) domain by NOAA/ESRL Global Systems Division. We simulate HRRR-Smoke for August 2015 and 2016 time periods over the CONUS domain to conduct the model evaluations. Simulated smoke concentrations are evaluated using hourly PM2.5 measurements from EPA's Air Quality System network. The HRRR-Smoke model uses a double moment aerosol aware microphysics scheme, which enables an efficient coupling between smoke and meteorology. We explore the impact of smoke on radiation, cloud and precipitation fields, whether the inclusion of the feedback processes improves the weather prediction skill of the model.

  10. Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kock, A.

    1996-05-01

    The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies.

  11. Regional Integrated Meteorological Forecasting and Warning Model for Geological Hazards Based on Logistic Regression

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Jing; YANG Chi; ZHANG Guoping

    2007-01-01

    Information model is adopted to integrate factors of various geosciences to estimate the susceptibility of geological hazards. Further combining the dynamic rainfall observations, Logistic regression is used for modeling the probabilities of geological hazard occurrences, upon which hierarchical warnings for rainfall-induced geological hazards are produced. The forecasting and warning model takes numerical precipitation forecasts on grid points as its dynamic input, forecasts the probabilities of geological hazard occurrences on the same grid, and translates the results into likelihoods in the form of a 5-level hierarchy. Validation of the model with observational data for the year 2004 shows that 80% of the geological hazards of the year have been identified as "likely enough to release warning messages". The model can satisfy the requirements of an operational warning system, thus is an effective way to improve the meteorological warnings for geological hazards.

  12. Long-term runoff forecasting by combining hydrological models and meteorological records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Tao-Chang; Yu, Pao-Shan; Chen, Chiang-Chi

    2005-06-01

    Reservoir operation is generally based on the inflows of the upstream catchment of the reservoir. If the arriving inflows can be forecasted, that can benefit reservoir operation and management. This study attempts to construct a long-term inflow-forecasting model by combining a continuous rainfall-runoff model with the long-term weather outlook from the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan. The analytical results demonstrate that the continuous rainfall-runoff model has good inflow simulation performance by using 10-day meteorological and inflow records over a 33-year period for model calibration and verification. The long-term inflow forecasting during the dry season was further conducted by combining the continuous rainfall-runoff model and the long-term weather outlook, which was found to have good performance.

  13. Motivational Meteorology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benjamin, Lee

    1993-01-01

    Describes an introductory meteorology course for nonacademic high school students. The course is made hands-on by the use of an educational software program offered by Accu-Weather. The program contains a meteorology database and instructional modules. (PR)

  14. Evaluating the effects of model structure and meteorological input data on runoff modelling in an alpine headwater basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schattan, Paul; Bellinger, Johannes; Förster, Kristian; Schöber, Johannes; Huttenlau, Matthias; Kirnbauer, Robert; Achleitner, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Modelling water resources in snow-dominated mountainous catchments is challenging due to both, short concentration times and a highly variable contribution of snow melt in space and time from complex terrain. A number of model setups exist ranging from physically based models to conceptional models which do not attempt to represent the natural processes in a physically meaningful way. Within the flood forecasting system for the Tyrolean Inn River two serially linked hydrological models with differing process representation are used. Non- glacierized catchments are modelled by a semi-distributed, water balance model (HQsim) based on the HRU-approach. A fully-distributed energy and mass balance model (SES), purpose-built for snow- and icemelt, is used for highly glacierized headwater catchments. Previous work revealed uncertainties and limitations within the models' structures regarding (i) the representation of snow processes in HQsim, (ii) the runoff routing of SES, and (iii) the spatial resolution of the meteorological input data in both models. To overcome these limitations, a "strengths driven" model coupling is applied. Instead of linking the models serially, a vertical one-way coupling of models has been implemented. The fully-distributed snow modelling of SES is combined with the semi-distributed HQsim structure, allowing to benefit from soil and runoff routing schemes in HQsim. A monte-carlo based modelling experiment was set up to evaluate the resulting differences in the runoff prediction due to the improved model coupling and a refined spatial resolution of the meteorological forcing. The experiment design follows a gradient of spatial discretisation of hydrological processes and meteorological forcing data with a total of six different model setups for the alpine headwater basin of the Fagge River in the Tyrolean Alps. In general, all setups show a good performance for this particular basin. It is therefore planned to include other basins with differing

  15. Sensitivity of Global Modeling Initiative chemistry and transport model simulations of radon-222 and lead-210 to input meteorological data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. B. Considine

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We have used the Global Modeling Initiative chemistry and transport model to simulate the radionuclides radon-222 and lead-210 using three different sets of input meteorological information: 1. Output from the Goddard Space Flight Center Global Modeling and Assimilation Office GEOS-STRAT assimilation; 2. Output from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GISS II' general circulation model; and 3. Output from the National Center for Atmospheric Research MACCM3 general circulation model. We intercompare these simulations with observations to determine the variability resulting from the different meteorological data used to drive the model, and to assess the agreement of the simulations with observations at the surface and in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere region. The observational datasets we use are primarily climatologies developed from multiple years of observations. In the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere region, climatological distributions of lead-210 were constructed from ~25 years of aircraft and balloon observations compiled into the US Environmental Measurements Laboratory RANDAB database. Taken as a whole, no simulation stands out as superior to the others. However, the simulation driven by the NCAR MACCM3 meteorological data compares better with lead-210 observations in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere region. Comparisons of simulations made with and without convection show that the role played by convective transport and scavenging in the three simulations differs substantially. These differences may have implications for evaluation of the importance of very short-lived halogen-containing species on stratospheric halogen budgets.

  16. Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreher, Joseph; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian; Van Speybroeck, Kurt

    2009-01-01

    The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) is responsible for providing meteorological support to state and county emergency management agencies across East Central Florida in the event of incidents involving the significant release of harmful chemicals, radiation, and smoke from fires and/or toxic plumes into the atmosphere. NWS MLB uses the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to provide trajectory, concentration, and deposition guidance during such events. Accurate and timely guidance is critical for decision makers charged with protecting the health and well-being of populations at risk. Information that can describe the geographic extent of areas possibly affected by a hazardous release, as well as to indicate locations of primary concern, offer better opportunity for prompt and decisive action. In addition, forecasters at the NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have expressed interest in using the HYSPLIT model to assist with Weather Flight Rules during Space Shuttle landing operations. In particular, SMG would provide low and mid-level HYSPLIT trajectory forecasts for cumulus clouds associated with smoke plumes, and high-level trajectory forecasts for thunderstorm anvils. Another potential benefit for both NWS MLB and SMG is using the HYSPLIT model concentration and deposition guidance in fog situations.

  17. Modeling analysis of secondary inorganic aerosols over China: pollution characteristics, and meteorological and dust impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Xiao; Wang, Shuxiao; Chang, Xing; Cai, Siyi; Xing, Jia; Hao, Jiming

    2016-10-01

    Secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA) are the predominant components of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and have significant impacts on air quality, human health, and climate change. In this study, the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) was modified to incorporate SO2 heterogeneous reactions on the surface of dust particles. The revised model was then used to simulate the spatiotemporal characteristics of SIA over China and analyze the impacts of meteorological factors and dust on SIA formation. Including the effects of dust improved model performance for the simulation of SIA concentrations, particularly for sulfate. The simulated annual SIA concentration in China was approximately 10.1 μg/m3 on domain average, with strong seasonal variation: highest in winter and lowest in summer. High SIA concentrations were concentrated in developed regions with high precursor emissions, such as the North China Plain, Yangtze River Delta, Sichuan Basin, and Pearl River Delta. Strong correlations between meteorological factors and SIA pollution levels suggested that heterogeneous reactions under high humidity played an important role on SIA formation, particularly during severe haze pollution periods. Acting as surfaces for heterogeneous reactions, dust particles significantly affected sulfate formation, suggesting the importance of reducing dust emissions for controlling SIA and PM2.5 pollution.

  18. Modeling analysis of secondary inorganic aerosols over China: pollution characteristics, and meteorological and dust impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Xiao; Wang, Shuxiao; Chang, Xing; Cai, Siyi; Xing, Jia; Hao, Jiming

    2016-01-01

    Secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA) are the predominant components of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and have significant impacts on air quality, human health, and climate change. In this study, the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) was modified to incorporate SO2 heterogeneous reactions on the surface of dust particles. The revised model was then used to simulate the spatiotemporal characteristics of SIA over China and analyze the impacts of meteorological factors and dust on SIA formation. Including the effects of dust improved model performance for the simulation of SIA concentrations, particularly for sulfate. The simulated annual SIA concentration in China was approximately 10.1 μg/m3 on domain average, with strong seasonal variation: highest in winter and lowest in summer. High SIA concentrations were concentrated in developed regions with high precursor emissions, such as the North China Plain, Yangtze River Delta, Sichuan Basin, and Pearl River Delta. Strong correlations between meteorological factors and SIA pollution levels suggested that heterogeneous reactions under high humidity played an important role on SIA formation, particularly during severe haze pollution periods. Acting as surfaces for heterogeneous reactions, dust particles significantly affected sulfate formation, suggesting the importance of reducing dust emissions for controlling SIA and PM2.5 pollution. PMID:27782166

  19. Tropospheric aerosol microphysics simulation with assimilated meteorology: model description and intermodel comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Trivitayanurak

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available We implement the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS microphysics module into GEOS-CHEM, a CTM driven by assimilated meteorology. TOMAS has 30 size sections covering 0.01–10 μm diameter with conservation equations for both aerosol mass and number. The implementation enables GEOS-CHEM to simulate aerosol microphysics, size distributions, mass and number concentrations. The model system is developed for sulfate and sea-salt aerosols, a year-long simulation has been performed, and results are compared to observations. Additionally model intercomparison was carried out involving global models with sectional microphysics: GISS GCM-II' and GLOMAP. Comparison with marine boundary layer observations of CN and CCN(0.2% shows that all models perform well with average errors of 30–50%. However, all models underpredict CN by up to 42% between 15° S and 45° S while overpredicting CN up to 52% between 45° N and 60° N, which could be due to the sea-salt emission parameterization and the assumed size distribution of primary sulfate emission, in each case respectively. Model intercomparison at the surface shows that GISS GCM-II' and GLOMAP, each compared against GEOS-CHEM, both predict 40% higher CN and predict 20% and 30% higher CCN(0.2% on average, respectively. Major discrepancies are due to different emission inventories and transport. Budget comparison shows GEOS-CHEM predicts the lowest global CCN(0.2% due to microphysical growth being a factor of 2 lower than other models because of lower SO2 availability. These findings stress the need for accurate meteorological inputs and updated emission inventories when evaluating global aerosol microphysics models.

  20. A search for short-term meteorological effects of solar variability in an atmospheric circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somerville, R. C. J.; Quirk, W. J.; Hansen, J. E.; Lacis, A. A.; Stone, P. H.

    1976-01-01

    A set of numerical experiments is carried out to test the short-range sensitivity of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global atmospheric general-circulation model to changes in solar constant and ozone amount. These experiments consist of forecasts initiated with actual atmospheric data. One set of forecasts is made with a standard version of the model; another set uses the model modified by very different values of the solar constant (two-thirds and three-halves of the standard value) and of the ozone amount (zero and twice the standard amount). Twelve-day integrations with these very large variations show such small effects that the effects of realistic variations would almost certainly be insignificant meteorologically on this time scale.

  1. Forest cover algorithms for estimating meteorological forcing in a numerical snow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellström, Robert Å.

    2000-12-01

    The architectural properties of a forest are known to significantly modify meteorological forcing of snowcover. This project develops four numerical modules to simulate canopy processes including attenuation of solar radiation and wind speed, the mixed sky and canopy components of longwave irradiance, and precipitation interception by canopy elements. The four modules and a more realistic atmospheric stability algorithm were included in the Utah Energy Balance (UEB) snow model to estimate water equivalence beneath coniferous and defoliated deciduous forests in northern Michigan. Systematic underestimation of early season snow depth was attributed to the assumption of constant, seasonal average, snow density in the model's lumped treatment of the snowpack processes. The modified UEB model (UEBMOD) improved estimation of snow depth in a clearing and beneath the coniferous site, whereas UEB with original forest parameterizations performed best for the deciduous site.

  2. Modeling Hydraulic Responses to Meteorological Forcing: fromCanopy to Aquifer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pan, Lehua; Jin, Jiming; Miller, Norman; Wu, Yu-Shu; Bodvarsson,Gudmundur

    2007-02-08

    An understanding of the hydrologic interactions amongatmosphere, land surface, and subsurface is one of the keys tounderstanding the water cycling system that supports our life system onearth. Properly modeling such interactionsis a difficult task because oftheinherent coupled processes and complex feedback structures amongsubsystems. In this paper, we present a model that simulates thelandsurface and subsurface hydrologic response to meteorological forcing.This model combines a state of the art landsurface model, the NCARCommunity Land Model version 3 (CLM3), with a variablysaturatedgroundwater model, the TOUGH2, through an internal interfacethat includes flux and state variables shared by the two submodels.Specifically, TOUGH2, in its simulation, uses infiltration, evaporation,and rootuptake rates, calculated by CLM3, as source/sink terms? CLM3, inits simulation, uses saturation and capillary pressure profiles,calculated by TOUGH2, as state variables. This new model, CLMT2,preserves the best aspects of both submodels: the state of the artmodeling capability of surface energy and hydrologic processes from CLM3and the more realistic physical process based modeling capability ofsubsurface hydrologic processes from TOUGH2. The preliminary simulationresults show that the coupled model greatly improves the predictions ofthe water table, evapotranspiration, surface temperature, and moisture inthe top 20 cm of soil at a real watershed, as evaluated from 18 years ofobserved data. The new model is also ready to be coupled with anatmospheric simulation model, representing one of the first models thatare capable to simulate hydraulic processes from top of the atmosphere todeep ground.

  3. Estimating urban ground-level PM10 using MODIS 3km AOD product and meteorological parameters from WRF model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghotbi, Saba; Sotoudeheian, Saeed; Arhami, Mohammad

    2016-09-01

    Satellite remote sensing products of AOD from MODIS along with appropriate meteorological parameters were used to develop statistical models and estimate ground-level PM10. Most of previous studies obtained meteorological data from synoptic weather stations, with rather sparse spatial distribution, and used it along with 10 km AOD product to develop statistical models, applicable for PM variations in regional scale (resolution of ≥10 km). In the current study, meteorological parameters were simulated with 3 km resolution using WRF model and used along with the rather new 3 km AOD product (launched in 2014). The resulting PM statistical models were assessed for a polluted and largely variable urban area, Tehran, Iran. Despite the critical particulate pollution problem, very few PM studies were conducted in this area. The issue of rather poor direct PM-AOD associations existed, due to different factors such as variations in particles optical properties, in addition to bright background issue for satellite data, as the studied area located in the semi-arid areas of Middle East. Statistical approach of linear mixed effect (LME) was used, and three types of statistical models including single variable LME model (using AOD as independent variable) and multiple variables LME model by using meteorological data from two sources, WRF model and synoptic stations, were examined. Meteorological simulations were performed using a multiscale approach and creating an appropriate physic for the studied region, and the results showed rather good agreements with recordings of the synoptic stations. The single variable LME model was able to explain about 61%-73% of daily PM10 variations, reflecting a rather acceptable performance. Statistical models performance improved through using multivariable LME and incorporating meteorological data as auxiliary variables, particularly by using fine resolution outputs from WRF (R2 = 0.73-0.81). In addition, rather fine resolution for PM

  4. Performance of the meteorological radiation model during the solar eclipse of 29 March 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. E. Psiloglou

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Various solar broadband models have been developed in the last half of the 20th century. The driving demand has been the estimation of available solar energy at different locations on earth for various applications. The motivation for such developments, though, has been the ample lack of solar radiation measurements at global scale. Therefore, the main goal of such codes is to generate artificial solar radiation series or calculate the availability of solar energy at a place.

    One of the broadband models to be developed in the late 80's was the Meteorological Radiation Model (MRM. The main advantage of MRM over other similar models was its simplicity in acquiring and using the necessary input data, i.e. air temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure and sunshine duration from any of the many meteorological stations.

    The present study describes briefly the various steps (versions of MRM and in greater detail the latest version 5. To show the flexibility and great performance of the MRM, a harsh test of the code under the (almost total solar eclipse conditions of 29 March 2006 over Athens was performed and comparison of its results with real measurements was made. From this hard comparison it is shown that the MRM can simulate solar radiation during a solar eclipse event as effectively as on a typical day. Because of the main interest in solar energy applications about the total radiation component, MRM focuses on that. For this component, the RMSE and MBE statistical estimators during this study were found to be 7.64% and −1.67% on 29 March as compared to the respective 5.30% and +2.04% for 28 March. This efficiency of MRM even during an eclipse makes the model promising for easy handling of typical situations with even better results.

  5. Modeling Occurrence of Urban Mosquitos Based on Land Use Types and Meteorological Factors in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Yong-Su; Bae, Mi-Jung; Chung, Namil; Lee, Yeo-Rang; Hwang, Suntae; Kim, Sang-Ae; Choi, Young Jean; Park, Young-Seuk

    2015-10-20

    Mosquitoes are a public health concern because they are vectors of pathogen, which cause human-related diseases. It is well known that the occurrence of mosquitoes is highly influenced by meteorological conditions (e.g., temperature and precipitation) and land use, but there are insufficient studies quantifying their impacts. Therefore, three analytical methods were applied to determine the relationships between urban mosquito occurrence, land use type, and meteorological factors: cluster analysis based on land use types; principal component analysis (PCA) based on mosquito occurrence; and three prediction models, support vector machine (SVM), classification and regression tree (CART), and random forest (RF). We used mosquito data collected at 12 sites from 2011 to 2012. Mosquito abundance was highest from August to September in both years. The monitoring sites were differentiated into three clusters based on differences in land use type such as culture and sport areas, inland water, artificial grasslands, and traffic areas. These clusters were well reflected in PCA ordinations, indicating that mosquito occurrence was highly influenced by land use types. Lastly, the RF represented the highest predictive power for mosquito occurrence and temperature-related factors were the most influential. Our study will contribute to effective control and management of mosquito occurrences.

  6. An innovative land use regression model incorporating meteorology for exposure analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jason G; Brauer, Michael; Ainslie, Bruce; Steyn, Douw; Larson, Timothy; Buzzelli, Michael

    2008-02-15

    The advent of spatial analysis and geographic information systems (GIS) has led to studies of chronic exposure and health effects based on the rationale that intra-urban variations in ambient air pollution concentrations are as great as inter-urban differences. Such studies typically rely on local spatial covariates (e.g., traffic, land use type) derived from circular areas (buffers) to predict concentrations/exposures at receptor sites, as a means of averaging the annual net effect of meteorological influences (i.e., wind speed, wind direction and insolation). This is the approach taken in the now popular land use regression (LUR) method. However spatial studies of chronic exposures and temporal studies of acute exposures have not been adequately integrated. This paper presents an innovative LUR method implemented in a GIS environment that reflects both temporal and spatial variability and considers the role of meteorology. The new source area LUR integrates wind speed, wind direction and cloud cover/insolation to estimate hourly nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) concentrations from land use types (i.e., road network, commercial land use) and these concentrations are then used as covariates to regress against NO and NO(2) measurements at various receptor sites across the Vancouver region and compared directly with estimates from a regular LUR. The results show that, when variability in seasonal concentration measurements is present, the source area LUR or SA-LUR model is a better option for concentration estimation.

  7. Modeling the Frequency of Cyclists’ Red-Light Running Behavior Using Bayesian PG Model and PLN Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yao Wu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Red-light running behaviors of bicycles at signalized intersection lead to a large number of traffic conflicts and high collision potentials. The primary objective of this study is to model the cyclists’ red-light running frequency within the framework of Bayesian statistics. Data was collected at twenty-five approaches at seventeen signalized intersections. The Poisson-gamma (PG and Poisson-lognormal (PLN model were developed and compared. The models were validated using Bayesian p values based on posterior predictive checking indicators. It was found that the two models have a good fit of the observed cyclists’ red-light running frequency. Furthermore, the PLN model outperformed the PG model. The model estimated results showed that the amount of cyclists’ red-light running is significantly influenced by bicycle flow, conflict traffic flow, pedestrian signal type, vehicle speed, and e-bike rate. The validation result demonstrated the reliability of the PLN model. The research results can help transportation professionals to predict the expected amount of the cyclists’ red-light running and develop effective guidelines or policies to reduce red-light running frequency of bicycles at signalized intersections.

  8. The first mathematical models of dynamic meteorology: The Berlin prize contest of 1746

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Egger, J.; Pelkowski, J. [Muenchen Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.

    2008-02-15

    The first models of dynamic meteorology were published in 1747 as a result of a prize contest of the Academy of Prussia. The topic of the contest concerned the determination of the winds 'if the Earth were surrounded everywhere by an ocean'. D'Alembert formulated a shallow water model for the first time in his prize-winning contribution and attempted to calculate tidal motions within the fluid layers. Daniel Bernoulli viewed the atmosphere as a boundary layer wherein the winds rotating with the earth at low elevations have to adjust their motion to a solar atmosphere at large heights. He is first in applying the principle of angular momentum conservation in continuum geophysics when calculating the zonal wind profile. An account of the historical background of the contest is given, as well as some later reactions to d'Alembert's solution. (orig.)

  9. Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Tai, A. P. K.; Fiore, A. M.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50

  10. Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Tai, A. P. K.; Fiore, A. M.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50

  11. Quantifying PM2.5-meteorology sensitivities in a global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Tai, A. P. K.; Fiore, A. M.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2016-10-01

    Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 μg m-3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 μg m-3 (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 μg m-3 for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10-50% over the

  12. Two-Higgs-doublet model of type II confronted with the LHC run I and run II data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Zhang, Feng; Han, Xiao-Fang

    2017-06-01

    We examine the parameter space of the two-Higgs-doublet model of type II after imposing the relevant theoretical and experimental constraints from the precision electroweak data, B -meson decays, and the LHC run I and run II data. We find that the searches for Higgs bosons via the τ+τ- , W W , Z Z , γ γ , h h , h Z , H Z , and A Z channels can give strong constraints on the C P -odd Higgs A and heavy C P -even Higgs H , and the parameter space excluded by each channel is respectively carved out in detail assuming that either mA or mH are fixed to 600 or 700 GeV in the scans. The surviving samples are discussed in two different regions. (i) In the standard model-like coupling region of the 125 GeV Higgs, mA is allowed to be as low as 350 GeV, and a strong upper limit is imposed on tan β . mH is allowed to be as low as 200 GeV for the appropriate values of tan β , sin (β -α ), and mA, but is required to be larger than 300 GeV for mA=700 GeV . (ii) In the wrong-sign Yukawa coupling region of the 125 GeV Higgs, the b b ¯→A /H →τ+τ- channel can impose the upper limits on tan β and sin (β -α ), and the A →h Z channel can give the lower limits on tan β and sin (β -α ). mA and mH are allowed to be as low as 60 and 200 GeV, respectively, but 320 GeV

  13. A flood episode in northern Italy: multi-model and single-model mesoscale meteorological ensembles for hydrological predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Davolio

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Numerical weather prediction models can be coupled with hydrological models to generate streamflow forecasts. Several ensemble approaches have been recently developed in order to take into account the different sources of errors and provide probabilistic forecasts feeding a flood forecasting system. Within this framework, the present study aims at comparing two high-resolution limited-area meteorological ensembles, covering short and medium range, obtained via different methodologies, but implemented with similar number of members, horizontal resolution (about 7 km, and driving global ensemble prediction system. The former is a multi-model ensemble, based on three mesoscale models (BOLAM, COSMO, and WRF, while the latter, following a single-model approach, is the operational ensemble forecasting system developed within the COSMO consortium, COSMO-LEPS (limited-area ensemble prediction system. The meteorological models are coupled with a distributed rainfall-runoff model (TOPKAPI to simulate the discharge of the Reno River (northern Italy, for a recent severe weather episode affecting northern Apennines. The evaluation of the ensemble systems is performed both from a meteorological perspective over northern Italy and in terms of discharge prediction over the Reno River basin during two periods of heavy precipitation between 29 November and 2 December 2008. For each period, ensemble performance has been compared at two different forecast ranges. It is found that, for the intercomparison undertaken in this specific study, both mesoscale model ensembles outperform the global ensemble for application at basin scale. Horizontal resolution is found to play a relevant role in modulating the precipitation distribution. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble provides a better indication concerning the occurrence, intensity and timing of the two observed discharge peaks, with respect to COSMO-LEPS. This seems to be ascribable to the different behaviour of the

  14. Performance of the meteorological radiation model during the solar eclipse of 29 March 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. E. Psiloglou

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Various solar broadband models have been developed in the last half of the 20th century. The driving demand has been the estimation of available solar energy at different locations on earth for various applications. The motivation for such developments, though, has been the ample lack of solar radiation measurements at global scale. Therefore, the main goal of such codes was to generate artificial solar radiation series or calculate the availability of solar energy at a place.

    One of the broadband models to be developed in the late 80's was the Meteorological Radiation Model (MRM. The main advantage of MRM over other similar models was its simplicity in acquiring and using the necessary input data, i.e., air temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure and sunshine duration from any of the many meteorological stations.

    The present study describes briefly the various steps (versions of MRM and in greater detail the latest version 5. To show the flexibility and great performance of the MRM, a harsh test of the code under the (almost total solar eclipse conditions of 29 March 2006 over Athens was performed and comparison of its results with real measurements was made. From this hard comparison it is shown that the MRM can simulate solar radiation during a solar eclipse event as effectively as on a typical day. The value of this comparison is further enhanced if it said that the sky was cloudy almost all the duration of the solar eclipse event.

  15. Mineral dust aerosols over the Sahara: Meteorological controls on emission and transport and implications for modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knippertz, Peter; Todd, Martin C.

    2012-02-01

    Atmospheric mineral dust has recently become an important research field in Earth system science because of its impacts on radiation, clouds, atmospheric dynamics and chemistry, air quality, and biogeochemical cycles. Studying and modeling dust emission and transport over the world's largest source region, the Sahara, is particularly challenging because of the complex meteorology and a very sparse observational network. Recent advances in satellite retrievals together with ground- and aircraft-based field campaigns have fostered our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability of the dust aerosol and its atmospheric drivers. We now have a more complete picture of the key processes in the atmosphere associated with dust emission. These cover a range of scales from (1) synoptic scale cyclones in the northern sector of the Sahara, harmattan surges and African easterly waves, through (2) low-level jets and cold pools of mesoscale convective systems (particularly over the Sahel), to (3) microscale dust devils and dusty plumes, each with its own pronounced diurnal and seasonal characteristics. This paper summarizes recent progress on monitoring and analyzing the dust distribution over the Sahara and discusses implications for numerical modeling. Among the key challenges for the future are a better quantification of the relative importance of single processes and a more realistic representation of the effects of the smaller-scale meteorological features in dust models. In particular, moist convection has been recognized as a major limitation to our understanding because of the inability of satellites to observe dust under clouds and the difficulties of numerical models to capture convective organization.

  16. Sensitivity of meteorological input and soil properties in simulating aerosols (dust, PM10, and BC) using CHIMERE chemistry transport model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Nishi Srivastava; S K Satheesh; Nadège Blond

    2014-08-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of a European chemistry transport model, ‘CHIMERE’ driven by the US meteorological model MM5, in simulating aerosol concentrations [dust, PM10 and black carbon (BC)] over the Indian region. An evaluation of a meteorological event (dust storm); impact of change in soil-related parameters and meteorological input grid resolution on these aerosol concentrations has been performed. Dust storm simulation over Indo-Gangetic basin indicates ability of the model to capture dust storm events. Measured (AERONET data) and simulated parameters such as aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Angstrom exponent are used to evaluate the performance of the model to capture the dust storm event. A sensitivity study is performed to investigate the impact of change in soil characteristics (thickness of the soil layer in contact with air, volumetric water, and air content of the soil) and meteorological input grid resolution on the aerosol (dust, PM10, BC) distribution. Results show that soil parameters and meteorological input grid resolution have an important impact on spatial distribution of aerosol (dust, PM10, BC) concentrations.

  17. Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998-2007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Background Malaria transmission is complex and is believed to be associated with local climate changes. However, simple attempts to extrapolate malaria incidence rates from averaged regional meteorological conditions have proven unsuccessful. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if variations in specific meteorological factors are able to consistently predict P. falciparum malaria incidence at different locations in south Ethiopia. Methods Retrospective data from 42 locations were collected including P. falciparum malaria incidence for the period of 1998-2007 and meteorological variables such as monthly rainfall (all locations), temperature (17 locations), and relative humidity (three locations). Thirty-five data sets qualified for the analysis. Ljung-Box Q statistics was used for model diagnosis, and R squared or stationary R squared was taken as goodness of fit measure. Time series modelling was carried out using Transfer Function (TF) models and univariate auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) when there was no significant predictor meteorological variable. Results Of 35 models, five were discarded because of the significant value of Ljung-Box Q statistics. Past P. falciparum malaria incidence alone (17 locations) or when coupled with meteorological variables (four locations) was able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence within statistical significance. All seasonal AIRMA orders were from locations at altitudes above 1742 m. Monthly rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature was able to predict incidence at four, five and two locations, respectively. In contrast, relative humidity was not able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence. The R squared values for the models ranged from 16% to 97%, with the exception of one model which had a negative value. Models with seasonal ARIMA orders were found to perform better. However, the models for predicting P. falciparum malaria incidence varied from location to location, and among

  18. Long-run growth rate in a random multiplicative model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pirjol, Dan [Institute for Physics and Nuclear Engineering, 077125 Bucharest (Romania)

    2014-08-01

    We consider the long-run growth rate of the average value of a random multiplicative process x{sub i+1} = a{sub i}x{sub i} where the multipliers a{sub i}=1+ρexp(σW{sub i}₋1/2 σ²t{sub i}) have Markovian dependence given by the exponential of a standard Brownian motion W{sub i}. The average value (x{sub n}) is given by the grand partition function of a one-dimensional lattice gas with two-body linear attractive interactions placed in a uniform field. We study the Lyapunov exponent λ=lim{sub n→∞}1/n log(x{sub n}), at fixed β=1/2 σ²t{sub n}n, and show that it is given by the equation of state of the lattice gas in thermodynamical equilibrium. The Lyapunov exponent has discontinuous partial derivatives along a curve in the (ρ, β) plane ending at a critical point (ρ{sub C}, β{sub C}) which is related to a phase transition in the equivalent lattice gas. Using the equivalence of the lattice gas with a bosonic system, we obtain the exact solution for the equation of state in the thermodynamical limit n → ∞.

  19. Monitoring, modeling and mitigating impacts of wind farms on local meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baidya Roy, Somnath; Traiteur, Justin; Kelley, Neil

    2010-05-01

    Wind power is one of the fastest growing sources of energy. Most of the growth is in the industrial sector comprising of large utility-scale wind farms. Recent modeling studies have suggested that such wind farms can significantly affect local and regional weather and climate. In this work, we present observational evidence of the impact of wind farms on near-surface air temperatures. Data from perhaps the only meteorological field campaign in an operational wind farm shows that downwind temperatures are lower during the daytime and higher at night compared to the upwind environment. Corresponding radiosonde profiles at the nearby Edwards Air Force Base WMO meteorological station show that the diurnal environment is unstable while the nocturnal environment is stable during the field campaign. This behavior is consistent with the hypothesis proposed by Baidya Roy et al. (JGR 2004) that states that turbulence generated in the wake of rotors enhance vertical mixing leading to a warming/cooling under positive/negative potential temperature lapse rates. We conducted a set of 306 simulations with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to test if regional climate models can capture the thermal effects of wind farms. We represented wind turbines with a subgrid parameterization that assumes rotors to be sinks of momentum and sources of turbulence. The simulated wind farms consistently generated a localized warming/cooling under positive/negative lapse rates as hypothesized. We found that these impacts are inversely correlated with background atmospheric boundary layer turbulence. Thus, if the background turbulence is high due to natural processes, the effects of additional turbulence generated by wind turbine rotors are likely to be small. We propose the following strategies to minimize impacts of wind farms: • Engineering solution: design rotors that generate less turbulence in their wakes. Sensitivity simulations show that these turbines also increase the

  20. Air quality modeling in the Valley of Mexico: meteorology, emissions and forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Reynoso, A.; Jazcilevich, A. D.; Diaz-Nigenda, E.; Vazquez-Morales, W.; Torres-Jardon, R.; Ruiz-Suarez, G.; Tatarko, J.; Bornstein, R.

    2007-12-01

    The Valley of Mexico presents important challenges for air quality modeling: complex terrain, a great variety of anthropogenic and natural emissions sources, and high altitude and low latitude increasing the amount of radiation flux. The modeling group at the CCA-UNAM is using and merging state of the art models to study the different aspects that influence the air quality phenomenon in the Valley of Mexico. The air quality model MCCM that uses MM5 as its meteorological input has been a valuable tool to study important features of the complex and intricate atmospheric flows on the valley, such as local confluences and vertical fumigation. Air quality modeling has allowed studying the interaction between the atmospheres of the valleys surrounding the Valley of Mexico, prompting the location of measurement stations during the MILAGRO campaign. These measurements confirmed the modeling results and expanded our knowledge of the transport of pollutants between the Valleys of Cuernavaca, Puebla and Mexico. The urban landscape of Mexico City complicates meteorological modeling. Urban-MM5, a model that explicitly takes into account the influence of buildings, houses, streets, parks and anthropogenic heat, is being implemented. Preliminary results of urban-MM5 on a small area of the city have been obtained. The current emissions inventory uses traffic database that includes hourly vehicular activity in more than 11,000 street segments, includes 23 area emissions categories, more than 1,000 industrial sources and biogenic emissions. To improve mobile sources emissions a system consisting of a traffic model and a car simulator is underway. This system will allow for high time and space resolution and takes into account motor stress due to different driving regimes. An important source of emissions in the Valley of Mexico is erosion dust. The erosion model WEPS has been integrated with MM5 and preliminary results showing dust episodes over Mexico City have been obtained. A

  1. Biases in modeled surface snow BC mixing ratios in prescribed-aerosol climate model runs

    OpenAIRE

    Doherty, S. J.; C. M. Bitz; M. G. Flanner

    2014-01-01

    Black carbon (BC) in snow lowers its albedo, increasing the absorption of sunlight, leading to positive radiative forcing, climate warming and earlier snowmelt. A series of recent studies have used prescribed-aerosol deposition flux fields in climate model runs to assess the forcing by black carbon in snow. In these studies, the prescribed mass deposition flux of BC to surface snow is decoupled from the mass deposition flux of snow water to the surface. Here we compare progn...

  2. Grid-based Meteorological and Crisis Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hluchy, Ladislav; Bartok, Juraj; Tran, Viet; Lucny, Andrej; Gazak, Martin

    2010-05-01

    We present several applications from domain of meteorology and crisis management we developed and/or plan to develop. Particularly, we present IMS Model Suite - a complex software system designed to address the needs of accurate forecast of weather and hazardous weather phenomena, environmental pollution assessment, prediction of consequences of nuclear accident and radiological emergency. We discuss requirements on computational means and our experiences how to meet them by grid computing. The process of a pollution assessment and prediction of the consequences in case of radiological emergence results in complex data-flows and work-flows among databases, models and simulation tools (geographical databases, meteorological and dispersion models, etc.). A pollution assessment and prediction requires running of 3D meteorological model (4 nests with resolution from 50 km to 1.8 km centered on nuclear power plant site, 38 vertical levels) as well as running of the dispersion model performing the simulation of the release transport and deposition of the pollutant with respect to the numeric weather prediction data, released material description, topography, land use description and user defined simulation scenario. Several post-processing options can be selected according to particular situation (e.g. doses calculation). Another example is a forecasting of fog as one of the meteorological phenomena hazardous to the aviation as well as road traffic. It requires complicated physical model and high resolution meteorological modeling due to its dependence on local conditions (precise topography, shorelines and land use classes). An installed fog modeling system requires a 4 time nested parallelized 3D meteorological model with 1.8 km horizontal resolution and 42 levels vertically (approx. 1 million points in 3D space) to be run four times daily. The 3D model outputs and multitude of local measurements are utilized by SPMD-parallelized 1D fog model run every hour. The fog

  3. Running Large-Scale Air Pollution Models on Parallel Computers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Georgiev, K.; Zlatev, Z.

    2000-01-01

    Proceedings of the 23rd NATO/CCMS International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modeling and Its Application, held 28 September - 2 October 1998, in Varna, Bulgaria.......Proceedings of the 23rd NATO/CCMS International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modeling and Its Application, held 28 September - 2 October 1998, in Varna, Bulgaria....

  4. The Santa Barbara Channel - Santa Maria Basin Study: Wind Measurements and Modeling Resolving Coastal Mesoscale Meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorman, C. E.; Koracin, D.

    2002-12-01

    The importance of winds in driving the coastal ocean has long been recognized. Pre-World War II literature links wind stress and wind stress curl to coastal ocean responses. Nevertheless, direct measurements plausibly representative of a coastal area are few. Multiple observations on the scale of the simplest mesoscale atmospheric structure, such as the cross-coast variation along a linear coast, are even less frequent. The only wind measurements that we are aware of in a complicated coastal area backed by higher topography are in the MMS sponsored, Santa Barbara Channel/Santa Marina basin study. Taking place from 1994 to present, this study had an unheard of dense surface automated meteorological station array of up to 5 meteorological buoys, 4 oil platforms, 2 island stations, and 11 coastal stations within 1 km of the beach. Most of the land stations are maintained by other projects. Only a large, a well funded project with backed by an agency with the long-view could dedicate the resources and effort into filling the mesoscale "holes" and maintaining long-term, remotely located stations. The result of the MMS funded project is a sufficiently dense surface station array to resolve the along-coast and cross-coast atmospheric mesoscale wind structure. Great temporal and spatial variation is found in the wind, wind stress and the wind stress curl, during the extended summer season. The MM5 atmospheric mesoscale model with appropriate boundary layer physics and high-resolution horizontal and vertical grid structure successfully simulates the measured wind field from large scale down to the lower end of the mesoscale. Atmospheric models without appropriate resolution and boundary layer physics fail to capture significant mesoscale wind features. Satellite microwave wind measurements generally capture the offshore synoptic scale temporal and spatial scale in twice-a-day snap shots but fail in the crucial, innermost coastal waters and the diurnal scale.

  5. Meteorological and Back Trajectory Modeling for the Rocky Mountain Atmospheric Nitrogen and Sulfur Study II

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristi A. Gebhart

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Rocky Mountain Atmospheric Nitrogen and Sulfur (RoMANS II study with field operations during November 2008 through November 2009 was designed to evaluate the composition and sources of reactive nitrogen in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA. As part of RoMANS II, a mesoscale meteorological model was utilized to provide input for back trajectory and chemical transport models. Evaluation of the model's ability to capture important transport patterns in this region of complex terrain is discussed. Previous source-receptor studies of nitrogen in this region are also reviewed. Finally, results of several back trajectory analyses for RoMANS II are presented. The trajectory mass balance (TrMB model, a receptor-based linear regression technique, was used to estimate mean source attributions of airborne ammonia concentrations during RoMANS II. Though ammonia concentrations are usually higher when there is transport from the east, the TrMB model estimates that, on average, areas to the west contribute a larger mean fraction of the ammonia. Possible reasons for this are discussed and include the greater frequency of westerly versus easterly winds, the possibility that ammonia is transported long distances as ammonium nitrate, and the difficulty of correctly modeling the transport winds in this area.

  6. Renormalisation running of masses and mixings in UED models

    CERN Document Server

    Cornell, A S; Liu, Lu-Xin; Tarhini, Ahmad

    2012-01-01

    We review the Universal Extra-Dimensional Model compactified on a S1/Z2 orbifold, and the renormalisation group evolution of quark and lepton masses, mixing angles and phases both in the UED extension of the Standard Model and of the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model. We consider two typical scenarios: all matter fields propagating in the bulk, and matter fields constrained to the brane. The resulting renormalisation group evolution equations in these scenarios are compared with the existing results in the literature, together with their implications.

  7. Statistical modelling of forest fire danger rating based on meteorological, topographical and fuel factors in the Republic of Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Won, M.; Yoon, S.; Jang, K.; Lim, J.

    2016-12-01

    Most of fires were human-caused fires in Korea, but meteorological factors are also big contributors to fire behavior and its spread. Thus, meteorological factors as well as social factors were considered in the fire danger rating systems. This study aims to develop an advanced Korean Forest Fire Danger Rating System (KFFDRS) using weather data of automatic mountain meteorology observation systems(AMOSs) to support forest fire prevention strategy in South Korea. The KFFDRS consists of three, 10-scale indices: daily weather index (DWI), fuel model index (FMI), and topography model index (TMI). DWI represents the meteorological characteristics, such as humidity (relative and effective), temperature and wind speed, and we integrated nine logistic regression models of the past into one national model. One integrated national model is [1+exp{2.706+(0.088×maximum temperature)-(0.055×relative humidity)-(0.023×effective humidity)-(0.104×mean wind speed)}-1]-1 and all weather variables significantly (pfusion of mountain weather data with 55 random sampling in forest fire event days. One integrated national model showed 10% high accuracy than nine logistic regression models when it is applied fused mountain weather data. These findings would be necessary for the policy makers in the Republic of Korea for the prevention of forest fires.

  8. Advances in remote sensing and modeling of terrestrial hydro-meteorological processes and extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remote sensing is an indispensable tool for monitoring and detecting the evolution of the Earth’s hydro-meteorological processes. Fast-growing remote sensing observations and technologies have been a primary impetus to advancing our knowledge of hydro-meteorological processes and their extremes ove...

  9. Short-Run Asset Selection using a Logistic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Gonçalves Junior

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Investors constantly look for significant predictors and accurate models to forecast future results, whose occasional efficacy end up being neutralized by market efficiency. Regardless, such predictors are widely used for seeking better (and more unique perceptions. This paper aims to investigate to what extent some of the most notorious indicators have discriminatory power to select stocks, and if it is feasible with such variables to build models that could anticipate those with good performance. In order to do that, logistical regressions were conducted with stocks traded at Bovespa using the selected indicators as explanatory variables. Investigated in this study were the outputs of Bovespa Index, liquidity, the Sharpe Ratio, ROE, MB, size and age evidenced to be significant predictors. Also examined were half-year, logistical models, which were adjusted in order to check the potential acceptable discriminatory power for the asset selection.

  10. Mountain wave PSC dynamics and microphysics from ground-based lidar measurements and meteorological modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Reichardt

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The day-long observation of a polar stratospheric cloud (PSC by two co-located ground-based lidars at the Swedish research facility Esrange (67.9° N, 21.1° E on 16 January 1997 is analyzed in terms of PSC dynamics and microphysics. Mesoscale modeling is utilized to simulate the meteorological setting of the lidar measurements. Microphysical properties of the PSC particles are retrieved by comparing the measured particle depolarization ratio and the PSC-averaged lidar ratio with theoretical optical data derived for different particle shapes. In the morning, nitric acid trihydrate (NAT particles and then increasingly coexisting liquid ternary aerosol (LTA were detected as outflow from a mountain wave-induced ice PSC upwind Esrange. The NAT PSC is in good agreement with simulations for irregular-shaped particles with length-to-diameter ratios between 0.75 and 1.25, maximum dimensions from 0.7 to 0.9 µm, and a number density from 8 to 12 cm-3 and the coexisting LTA droplets had diameters from 0.7 to 0.9 µm, a refractive index of 1.39 and a number density from 7 to 11 cm-3. The total amount of condensed HNO3 was in the range of 8–12 ppbv. The data provide further observational evidence that NAT forms via deposition nucleation on ice particles as a number of recently published papers suggest. By early afternoon the mountain-wave ice PSC expanded above the lidar site. Its optical data indicate a decrease in minimum particle size from 3 to 1.9 µm with time. Later on, following the weakening of the mountain wave, wave-induced LTA was observed only. Our study demonstrates that ground-based lidar measurements of PSCs can be comprehensively interpreted if combined with mesoscale meteorological data.

  11. Lessons from a low-order coupled chemistry meteorology model and applications to a high-dimensional chemical transport model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haussaire, Jean-Matthieu; Bocquet, Marc

    2016-04-01

    Atmospheric chemistry models are becoming increasingly complex, with multiphasic chemistry, size-resolved particulate matter, and possibly coupled to numerical weather prediction models. In the meantime, data assimilation methods have also become more sophisticated. Hence, it will become increasingly difficult to disentangle the merits of data assimilation schemes, of models, and of their numerical implementation in a successful high-dimensional data assimilation study. That is why we believe that the increasing variety of problems encountered in the field of atmospheric chemistry data assimilation puts forward the need for simple low-order models, albeit complex enough to capture the relevant dynamics, physics and chemistry that could impact the performance of data assimilation schemes. Following this analysis, we developped a low-order coupled chemistry meteorology model named L95-GRS [1]. The advective wind is simulated by the Lorenz-95 model, while the chemistry is made of 6 reactive species and simulates ozone concentrations. With this model, we carried out data assimilation experiments to estimate the state of the system as well as the forcing parameter of the wind and the emissions of chemical compounds. This model proved to be a powerful playground giving insights on the hardships of online and offline estimation of atmospheric pollution. Building on the results on this low-order model, we test advanced data assimilation methods on a state-of-the-art chemical transport model to check if the conclusions obtained with our low-order model still stand. References [1] Haussaire, J.-M. and Bocquet, M.: A low-order coupled chemistry meteorology model for testing online and offline data assimilation schemes, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8, 7347-7394, doi:10.5194/gmdd-8-7347-2015, 2015.

  12. Dynamical system approach to running $\\Lambda$ cosmological models

    CERN Document Server

    Stachowski, Aleksander

    2016-01-01

    We discussed the dynamics of cosmological models in which the cosmological constant term is a time dependent function through the scale factor $a(t)$, Hubble function $H(t)$, Ricci scalar $R(t)$ and scalar field $\\phi(t)$. We considered five classes of models; two non-covariant parametrization of $\\Lambda$: 1) $\\Lambda(H)$CDM cosmologies where $H(t)$ is the Hubble parameter, 2) $\\Lambda(a)$CDM cosmologies where $a(t)$ is the scale factor, and three covariant parametrization of $\\Lambda$: 3) $\\Lambda(R)$CDM cosmologies, where $R(t)$ is the Ricci scalar, 4) $\\Lambda(\\phi)$-cosmologies with diffusion, 5) $\\Lambda(X)$-cosmologies, where $X=\\frac{1}{2}g^{\\alpha\\beta}\

  13. Numerical experiments with assimilation of the mean and unresolved meteorological conditions into large-eddy simulation model

    CERN Document Server

    Esau, Igor

    2010-01-01

    Micrometeorology, city comfort, land use management and air quality monitoring increasingly become important environmental issues. To serve the needs, meteorology needs to achieve a serious advance in representation and forecast on micro-scales (meters to 100 km) called meteorological terra incognita. There is a suitable numerical tool, namely, the large-eddy simulation modelling (LES) to support the development. However, at present, the LES is of limited utility for applications. The study addresses two problems. First, the data assimilation problem on micro-scales is investigated as a possibility to recover the turbulent fields consistent with the mean meteorological profiles. Second, the methods to incorporate of the unresolved surface structures are investigated in a priopi numerical experiments. The numerical experiments demonstrated that the simplest nudging or Newtonian relaxation technique for the data assimilation is applicable on the turbulence scales. It is also shown that the filtering property of...

  14. Implementation of the ATLAS Run 2 event data model

    CERN Document Server

    Buckley, Andrew; Elsing, Markus; Gillberg, Dag Ingemar; Koeneke, Karsten; Krasznahorkay, Attila; Moyse, Edward; Nowak, Marcin; Snyder, Scott; van Gemmeren, Peter

    2015-01-01

    During the 2013--2014 shutdown of the Large Hadron Collider, ATLAS switched to a new event data model for analysis, called the xAOD. A key feature of this model is the separation of the object data from the objects themselves (the `auxiliary store'). Rather being stored as member variables of the analysis classes, all object data are stored separately, as vectors of simple values. Thus, the data are stored in a `structure of arrays' format, while the user still can access it as an `array of structures'. This organization allows for on-demand partial reading of objects, the selective removal of object properties, and the addition of arbitrary user-defined properties in a uniform manner. It also improves performance by increasing the locality of memory references in typical analysis code. The resulting data structures can be written to ROOT files with data properties represented as simple ROOT tree branches. This talk will focus on the design and implementation of the auxiliary store and its interaction with RO...

  15. mr: A C++ library for the matching and running of the Standard Model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kniehl, Bernd A.; Pikelner, Andrey F.; Veretin, Oleg L.

    2016-09-01

    We present the C++ program library mr that allows us to reliably calculate the values of the running parameters in the Standard Model at high energy scales. The initial conditions are obtained by relating the running parameters in the MS bar renormalization scheme to observables at lower energies with full two-loop precision. The evolution is then performed in accordance with the renormalization group equations with full three-loop precision. Pure QCD corrections to the matching and running are included through four loops. We also provide a Mathematica interface for this program library.

  16. mr: a C++ library for the matching and running of the Standard Model parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Kniehl, Bernd A; Veretin, Oleg L

    2016-01-01

    We present the C++ program library mr that allows us to reliably calculate the values of the running parameters in the Standard Model at high energy scales. The initial conditions are obtained by relating the running parameters in the $\\overline{\\mathrm{MS}}$ renormalization scheme to observables at lower energies with full two-loop precision. The evolution is then performed in accordance with the renormalization group equations with full three-loop precision. Pure QCD corrections to the matching and running are included through four loops. We also provide a Mathematica interface for this program library.

  17. Modeling and roles of meteorological factors in outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paritosh K Biswas

    Full Text Available The highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H5N1 (HPAI H5N1 is a deadly zoonotic pathogen. Its persistence in poultry in several countries is a potential threat: a mutant or genetically reassorted progenitor might cause a human pandemic. Its world-wide eradication from poultry is important to protect public health. The global trend of outbreaks of influenza attributable to HPAI H5N1 shows a clear seasonality. Meteorological factors might be associated with such trend but have not been studied. For the first time, we analyze the role of meteorological factors in the occurrences of HPAI outbreaks in Bangladesh. We employed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA and multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA to assess the roles of different meteorological factors in outbreaks of HPAI. Outbreaks were modeled best when multiplicative seasonality was incorporated. Incorporation of any meteorological variable(s as inputs did not improve the performance of any multivariable models, but relative humidity (RH was a significant covariate in several ARIMA and SARIMA models with different autoregressive and moving average orders. The variable cloud cover was also a significant covariate in two SARIMA models, but air temperature along with RH might be a predictor when moving average (MA order at lag 1 month is considered.

  18. The Challenge of Modelling the Meteorology of Dust Emission: Lessons Learned from the Desert Storms Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knippertz, Peter; Marsham, John H.; Cowie, Sophie; Fiedler, Stephanie; Heinold, Bernd; Jemmett-Smith, Bradley; Pantillon, Florian; Schepanski, Kerstin; Roberts, Alexander; Pope, Richard; Gilkeson, Carl; Hubel, Eva

    2016-04-01

    Mineral dust plays an important role in the Earth system, but a reliable quantification of the global dust budget is still not possible due to a lack of observations and insufficient representation of relevant processes in climate and weather models. Five years ago, the Desert Storms project funded by the European Research Council set out to reduce these uncertainties. Its aims were to (1) improve the understanding of key meteorological mechanisms of peak wind generation in dust emission regions (particularly in northern Africa), (2) assess their relative importance, (3) evaluate their representation in models, (4) determine model sensitivities with respect to resolution and model physics, and (5) explore the usefulness of new approaches for model improvements. Here we give an overview of the most significant findings: (1) The morning breakdown of nocturnal low-level jets is an important emission mechanism, but details depend crucially on nighttime stability, which is often badly handled by models. (2) Convective cold pools are a key control on summertime dust emission over northern Africa, directly and through their influence on the heat low; they are severely misrepresented by models using parameterized convection. A new scheme based on downdraft mass flux has been developed that can mitigate this problem. (3) Mobile cyclones make a relatively unimportant contribution, except for northeastern Africa in spring. (4) A new global climatology of dust devils identifies local hotspots but suggests a minor contribution to the global dust budget in contrast to previous studies. A new dust-devil parameterization based on data from large-eddy simulations will be presented. (5) The lack of sufficient observations and misrepresentation of physical processes lead to a considerable uncertainty and biases in (re)analysis products. (6) Variations in vegetation-related surface roughness create small-scale wind variability and support long-term dust trends in semi-arid areas.

  19. Computer modelling of the meteorological and spraying parameters that influence the aerial dispersion of agrochemical sprays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokeba, M. L.; Salt, D. W.; Lee, B. E.; Ford, M. G.

    An insight into the nature of prevailing meteorological conditions and the manner in which they interact with spraying parameters is an important prerequisite in the analysis of the dynamics of agrochemical sprays. Usually, when these sprays are projected from hydraulic nozzles, their initial velocity is greater than that of the ambient wind speed. The flowfield therefore experiences changes in speed and direction which are felt upstream as well as downstream of the spray droplets. The pattern of the droplet flow, i.e. the shape of the streamlines marking typical trajectories, will be determined by a balance of viscous forces related to wind speed, inertial forces resulting from the acceleration of the airstream and pressure forces which can be viewed in terms of the drag forces exerted on the spray droplets themselves. At a certain distance in the ensuing motion, when the initial velocity of the spray droplets has decreased sufficiently for there to be no acceleration, their trajectories will be controlled entirely by the random effects of turbulence. These two transport processes in the atmosphere can be modelled mathematically using computers. This paper presents a model that considers the velocity of spray droplets to consist of a ballistic velocity component superimposed by a random-walk velocity component. The model is used to study the influence of meteorological and spraying parameters on the three-dimensional dynamics of spray droplets projected in specified directions in neutral and unstable weather conditions. The ballistic and random-walk velocity components are scaled by factors of (1-ξ) and ξ respectively, where ξ is the ratio of the sedimentation velocity and the relative velocity between the spray droplets and the surrounding airstream. This ratio increases progressively as the initial velocity of the spray droplet decreases with air resistance and attains a maximum when the sedimentation velocity has been reached. As soon as this occurs, the

  20. Searching For Exotic Physics Beyond the Standard Model: Extrapolation Until the End of Run-3

    CERN Document Server

    Genest, Marie-Hel\\`ene; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    The prospects of looking for exotic beyond-the-Standard-Model physics with the ATLAS and CMS detectors at the LHC in the rest of Run-2 and in Run-3 will be reviewed. A few selected analyses will be discussed, showing the gain in sensitivity that can be achieved by accumulating more data and comparing the current limits with the predicted reach. Some limiting factors will be identified, along with ideas on how to improve on the searches.

  1. Dynamic sensitivity analysis of long running landslide models through basis set expansion and meta-modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohmer, Jeremy

    2016-04-01

    Predicting the temporal evolution of landslides is typically supported by numerical modelling. Dynamic sensitivity analysis aims at assessing the influence of the landslide properties on the time-dependent predictions (e.g., time series of landslide displacements). Yet two major difficulties arise: 1. Global sensitivity analysis require running the landslide model a high number of times (> 1000), which may become impracticable when the landslide model has a high computation time cost (> several hours); 2. Landslide model outputs are not scalar, but function of time, i.e. they are n-dimensional vectors with n usually ranging from 100 to 1000. In this article, I explore the use of a basis set expansion, such as principal component analysis, to reduce the output dimensionality to a few components, each of them being interpreted as a dominant mode of variation in the overall structure of the temporal evolution. The computationally intensive calculation of the Sobol' indices for each of these components are then achieved through meta-modelling, i.e. by replacing the landslide model by a "costless-to-evaluate" approximation (e.g., a projection pursuit regression model). The methodology combining "basis set expansion - meta-model - Sobol' indices" is then applied to the La Frasse landslide to investigate the dynamic sensitivity analysis of the surface horizontal displacements to the slip surface properties during the pore pressure changes. I show how to extract information on the sensitivity of each main modes of temporal behaviour using a limited number (a few tens) of long running simulations. In particular, I identify the parameters, which trigger the occurrence of a turning point marking a shift between a regime of low values of landslide displacements and one of high values.

  2. Biases in modeled surface snow BC mixing ratios in prescribed aerosol climate model runs

    OpenAIRE

    Doherty, S. J.; C. M. Bitz; M. G. Flanner

    2014-01-01

    A series of recent studies have used prescribed aerosol deposition flux fields in climate model runs to assess forcing by black carbon in snow. In these studies, the prescribed mass deposition flux of BC to surface snow is decoupled from the mass deposition flux of snow water to the surface. Here we use a series of offline calculations to show that this approach results, on average, in a~factor of about 1.5–2.5 high bias in annual-mean surface snow BC mixing ratios in three ...

  3. The DACCIWA model evaluation project: representation of the meteorology of southern West Africa in state-of-the-art weather, seasonal and climate prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kniffka, Anke; Benedetti, Angela; Knippertz, Peter; Stanelle, Tanja; Brooks, Malcolm; Deetz, Konrad; Maranan, Marlon; Rosenberg, Philip; Pante, Gregor; Allan, Richard; Hill, Peter; Adler, Bianca; Fink, Andreas; Kalthoff, Norbert; Chiu, Christine; Vogel, Bernhard; Field, Paul; Marsham, John

    2017-04-01

    DACCIWA (Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa) is an EU-funded project that aims to determine the influence of anthropogenic and natural emissions on the atmospheric composition, air quality, weather and climate over southern West Africa. DACCIWA organised a major international field campaign in June-July 2016 and involves a wide range of modelling activities. Here we report about the coordinated model evaluation performed in the framework of DACCIWA focusing on meteorological fields. This activity consists of two elements: (a) the quality of numerical weather prediction during the field campaign, (b) the ability of seasonal and climate models to represent the mean state and its variability. For the first element, the extensive observations from the main field campaign in West Africa in June-July 2016 (ground supersites, radiosondes, aircraft measurements) will be combined with conventional data (synoptic stations, satellites data from various sensors) to evaluate models against. The forecasts include operational products from centres such as the ECMWF, UK MetOffice and the German Weather Service and runs specifically conducted for the planning and the post-analysis of the field campaign using higher resolutions (e.g., WRF, COSMO). The forecast and the observations are analysed in a concerted way to assess the ability of the models to represent the southern West African weather systems and secondly to provide a comprehensive synoptic overview of the state of the atmosphere. In a second step the process will be extended to long-term modelling periods. This includes both seasonal and climate models, respectively. In this case, the observational dataset contains long-term satellite observations and station data, some of which were digitised from written records in the framework of DACCIWA. Parameter choice and spatial averaging will build directly on the weather forecasting evaluation to allow an assessment of the impact of short-term errors on

  4. Modeling driver stop/run behavior at the onset of a yellow indication considering driver run tendency and roadway surface conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elhenawy, Mohammed; Jahangiri, Arash; Rakha, Hesham A; El-Shawarby, Ihab

    2015-10-01

    The ability to model driver stop/run behavior at signalized intersections considering the roadway surface condition is critical in the design of advanced driver assistance systems. Such systems can reduce intersection crashes and fatalities by predicting driver stop/run behavior. The research presented in this paper uses data collected from two controlled field experiments on the Smart Road at the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) to model driver stop/run behavior at the onset of a yellow indication for different roadway surface conditions. The paper offers two contributions. First, it introduces a new predictor related to driver aggressiveness and demonstrates that this measure enhances the modeling of driver stop/run behavior. Second, it applies well-known artificial intelligence techniques including: adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), random forest, and support vector machine (SVM) algorithms as well as traditional logistic regression techniques on the data in order to develop a model that can be used by traffic signal controllers to predict driver stop/run decisions in a connected vehicle environment. The research demonstrates that by adding the proposed driver aggressiveness predictor to the model, there is a statistically significant increase in the model accuracy. Moreover the false alarm rate is significantly reduced but this reduction is not statistically significant. The study demonstrates that, for the subject data, the SVM machine learning algorithm performs the best in terms of optimum classification accuracy and false positive rates. However, the SVM model produces the best performance in terms of the classification accuracy only.

  5. Meteorology Online.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahl, Jonathan D. W.

    2001-01-01

    Describes an activity to learn about meteorology and weather using the internet. Discusses the National Weather Service (NWS) internet site www.weather.gov. Students examine maximum and minimum daily temperatures, wind speed, and direction. (SAH)

  6. Meteorological Summaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Multi-year summaries of one or more meteorological elements at a station or in a state. Primarily includes Form 1078, a United States Weather Bureau form designed...

  7. A meteorological forcing data set for global crop modeling: Development, evaluation, and intercomparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Okada, Masashi; Yokozawza, Masayuki

    2014-01-01

    The Global Risk Assessment toward Stable Production of Food (GRASP) project uses global crop models to evaluate the impacts on global food security by changes in climate extremes, water resources, and land use. Such models require meteorological forcing data. This study presents the development of the GRASP forcing data that is a hybrid of the reanalyses (ERA-40 and JRA-25) and observations. The GRASP data offer daily mean, maximum, and minimum 2 m air temperatures as well as precipitation, solar radiation, vapor pressure, and 10 m wind speed over global land areas, excluding Antarctica, for the period 1961-2010 at a grid size of 1.125°. The monthly climatologies of the variables of the GRASP data were forced to be close to those of the observations for the baseline period (1961-1990 or 1983-2005) through bias corrections. The GRASP data are intercompared with other forcing data for land surface modeling (the S06, WATCH Forcing Data, and WATCH Forcing Data Methodology Applied to ERA-Interim data). The results demonstrate that the daily minimum temperature, diurnal temperature range, vapor pressure, solar radiation, and wind speed from the GRASP data are more valuable for crop modeling than the reanalyses and other forcing data. For remaining variables, the reliability of the GRASP data is higher than that of the reanalyses and on a similar level with that of the other forcing data. The GRASP data offer accurate estimates of daily weather as the inputs for crop models, providing unique opportunities to link historical changes in climate with crop production over the last half century.

  8. Data-driven modelling of vertical dynamic excitation of bridges induced by people running

    Science.gov (United States)

    Racic, Vitomir; Morin, Jean Benoit

    2014-02-01

    With increasingly popular marathon events in urban environments, structural designers face a great deal of uncertainty when assessing dynamic performance of bridges occupied and dynamically excited by people running. While the dynamic loads induced by pedestrians walking have been intensively studied since the infamous lateral sway of the London Millennium Bridge in 2000, reliable and practical descriptions of running excitation are still very rare and limited. This interdisciplinary study has addressed the issue by bringing together a database of individual running force signals recorded by two state-of-the-art instrumented treadmills and two attempts to mathematically describe the measurements. The first modelling strategy is adopted from the available design guidelines for human walking excitation of structures, featuring perfectly periodic and deterministic characterisation of pedestrian forces presentable via Fourier series. This modelling approach proved to be inadequate for running loads due to the inherent near-periodic nature of the measured signals, a great inter-personal randomness of the dominant Fourier amplitudes and the lack of strong correlation between the amplitudes and running footfall rate. Hence, utilising the database established and motivated by the existing models of wind and earthquake loading, speech recognition techniques and a method of replicating electrocardiogram signals, this paper finally presents a numerical generator of random near-periodic running force signals which can reliably simulate the measurements. Such a model is an essential prerequisite for future quality models of dynamic loading induced by individuals, groups and crowds running under a wide range of conditions, such as perceptibly vibrating bridges and different combinations of visual, auditory and tactile cues.

  9. Enviro-HIRLAM online integrated meteorology-chemistry modelling system: strategy, methodology, developments and applications (v7.2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, Alexander; Smith Korsholm, Ulrik; Nuterman, Roman; Mahura, Alexander; Pagh Nielsen, Kristian; Hansen Sass, Bent; Rasmussen, Alix; Zakey, Ashraf; Kaas, Eigil; Kurganskiy, Alexander; Sørensen, Brian; González-Aparicio, Iratxe

    2017-08-01

    The Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model (Enviro-HIRLAM) is developed as a fully online integrated numerical weather prediction (NWP) and atmospheric chemical transport (ACT) model for research and forecasting of joint meteorological, chemical and biological weather. The integrated modelling system is developed by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) in collaboration with several European universities. It is the baseline system in the HIRLAM Chemical Branch and used in several countries and different applications. The development was initiated at DMI more than 15 years ago. The model is based on the HIRLAM NWP model with online integrated pollutant transport and dispersion, chemistry, aerosol dynamics, deposition and atmospheric composition feedbacks. To make the model suitable for chemical weather forecasting in urban areas, the meteorological part was improved by implementation of urban parameterisations. The dynamical core was improved by implementing a locally mass-conserving semi-Lagrangian numerical advection scheme, which improves forecast accuracy and model performance. The current version (7.2), in comparison with previous versions, has a more advanced and cost-efficient chemistry, aerosol multi-compound approach, aerosol feedbacks (direct and semi-direct) on radiation and (first and second indirect effects) on cloud microphysics. Since 2004, the Enviro-HIRLAM has been used for different studies, including operational pollen forecasting for Denmark since 2009 and operational forecasting atmospheric composition with downscaling for China since 2017. Following the main research and development strategy, further model developments will be extended towards the new NWP platform - HARMONIE. Different aspects of online coupling methodology, research strategy and possible applications of the modelling system, and fit-for-purpose model configurations for the meteorological and air quality communities are discussed.

  10. The "APEC Blue" Phenomenon: Impacts of Regional emission control Meteorology Condition and Regional Transport from a Modeling Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, M.; Carmichael, G. R.; Liu, Z.; Ji, D.; Saide, P. E.; Wang, Y.; Xin, J.

    2015-12-01

    On November 5-11, China hosted the 2014 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders' Week in Beijing. To ensure good air quality during the APEC week, a series of strict emission control measures were taken in Beijing and surrounding provinces, which provide us with a great opportunity to examine the effectiveness of regional emission control. As important as emissions, meteorology can also significantly affect air quality in Beijing, so it's meaningful to understand the impact of meteorology conditions in the APEC week. Besides, it's important to study the impact of regional transport as its contribution to Beijing pollution levels is controversial. In this study, we investigate the impacts of emission control, meteorology and regional transport on the air quality during APEC week using a fully online coupled meteorology-chemistry model WRF-Chem. Compared to surface observations, the model has very good performance. The conclusions from this study will provide useful insights for government to control aerosol pollution in Beijing.

  11. A SEASONAL INFLUENZA THEORY AND MATHEMATICAL MODEL INCORPORATING METEOROLOGICAL AND SOCIO- BEHAVIORAL FACTORS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhixiang ZHOU

    2009-01-01

    On the basis of a comprehensive literature review and data analysis of global influenza surveillance,a transmission theory based numerical model is developed to understand the causative factors of influenza seasonality and the biodynamical mechanisms of seasonal flu. The model is applied to simulate the seasonality and weekly activity of influenza in different areas across all continents and climate zones around the world. Model solution and the good matches between model output and actual influenza indexes affirm that influenza activity is highly auto-correlative and relies on determinants of a broad spectrum. Internal dynamic resonance; variations of meteorological elements (solar radiation,precipitation and dewpoint); socio-behavioral influences and herd immunity to circulating strains prove to be the critical explanatory thctors of the seasonality and weekly activity of influenza. In all climate regions,influenza activity is proportional to the exponential of the number of days with precipitation and to the negative exponential of quarter power of sunny hours. Influenza activity is a negative exponential function of dewpoint in temperate and arctic regions and an exponential function of the absolute deviation of dewpoint from its annual mean in the tropics. Epidemics of seasonal influenza could be deemed as the consequence of the dynamic resonance and interactions of determinants. Early interventions (such as opportune vaccination,prompt social distancing,and maintaining incidence well below a baseline) are key to the control and prevention of seasonal influenza. Moderate amount of sunlight exposure or Vitamin D supplementation during rainy and short-day photoperiod seasons,more outdoor activities,and appropriate indoor dewpoint deserve great attention in influenza prevention. To a considerable degree,the study reveals the mechanism of inlluenza seasonality,demonstrating a potential for influenza activity projection. The concept and algorithm can be explored

  12. Directed urban canyons in megacities and its applications in meteorological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samsonov, Timofey; Konstantinov, Pavel; Varentsov, Mikhail

    2015-04-01

    Directed urban canyons study applies object-oriented analysis to extraction of urban canyons and introduces the concept of directed urban canyon which is then experimentally applied in urban meteorological modeling. Observation of current approach to description of urban canyon geometry is provided. Then a new theoretical approach to canyon delineation is presented that allows chaining the spaces between buildings into directed canyons that comprise three-level hierarchy. An original methodology based on triangular irregular network (TIN) is presented that allows extraction of regular and directed urban canyons from cartographic data, estimation of their geometric characteristics, including local and averaged height-width ratio, primary and secondary canyon directions. Obtained geometric properties of canyons are then applied in micro-scale temperature and wind modeling using URB-MOS model and estimation of possible wind accelerations along canyons. Extraction and analysis of directed canyons highly depends on the presence of linear street network. Thus, in the absence of this GIS layer, it should be reconstructed from another data sources. The future studies should give us an answer to the question, where the limits of directed canyons are and how they can be classified further in terms of the street longitudinal shape. For now all computations are performed in separate scripts and programs. We plan to develop comprehensive automation of described methods of urban canyon description in specialized software. The most perspective extension of proposed methodology seemes to be canyon -based analysis which is truely object-oriented. Various geometric properties of micro-, meso- and macro-scale canyons should be investigated and their applicability in urban climate modeling should be assesed. Object-oriented canyon analysis can also be applied in architectural studies, urban morphology, planning and various physical and social aspects that are concerned with human in

  13. An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 1: Model description and input meteorological forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Hanasaki

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available To assess global water availability and use at a subannual timescale, an integrated global water resources model was developed consisting of six modules: land surface hydrology, river routing, crop growth, reservoir operation, environmental flow requirement estimation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The model simulates both natural and anthropogenic water flow globally (excluding Antarctica on a daily basis at a spatial resolution of 1°×1° (longitude and latitude. This first part of the two-feature report describes the six modules and the input meteorological forcing. The input meteorological forcing was provided by the second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2, an international land surface modeling project. Several reported shortcomings of the forcing component were improved. The land surface hydrology module was developed based on a bucket type model that simulates energy and water balance on land surfaces. The crop growth module is a relatively simple model based on concepts of heat unit theory, potential biomass, and a harvest index. In the reservoir operation module, 452 major reservoirs with >1 km3 each of storage capacity store and release water according to their own rules of operation. Operating rules were determined for each reservoir by an algorithm that used currently available global data such as reservoir storage capacity, intended purposes, simulated inflow, and water demand in the lower reaches. The environmental flow requirement module was newly developed based on case studies from around the world. Simulated runoff was compared and validated with observation-based global runoff data sets and observed streamflow records at 32 major river gauging stations around the world. Mean annual runoff agreed well with earlier studies at global and continental scales, and in individual basins, the mean bias was less than ±20% in 14 of the 32 river basins and less than ±50% in 24 basins. The error in the peak was less

  14. An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources Part 1: Model description and input meteorological forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.; Masuda, K.; Motoya, K.; Shirakawa, N.; Shen, Y.; Tanaka, K.

    2008-07-01

    To assess global water availability and use at a subannual timescale, an integrated global water resources model was developed consisting of six modules: land surface hydrology, river routing, crop growth, reservoir operation, environmental flow requirement estimation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The model simulates both natural and anthropogenic water flow globally (excluding Antarctica) on a daily basis at a spatial resolution of 1°×1° (longitude and latitude). This first part of the two-feature report describes the six modules and the input meteorological forcing. The input meteorological forcing was provided by the second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2), an international land surface modeling project. Several reported shortcomings of the forcing component were improved. The land surface hydrology module was developed based on a bucket type model that simulates energy and water balance on land surfaces. The crop growth module is a relatively simple model based on concepts of heat unit theory, potential biomass, and a harvest index. In the reservoir operation module, 452 major reservoirs with >1 km3 each of storage capacity store and release water according to their own rules of operation. Operating rules were determined for each reservoir by an algorithm that used currently available global data such as reservoir storage capacity, intended purposes, simulated inflow, and water demand in the lower reaches. The environmental flow requirement module was newly developed based on case studies from around the world. Simulated runoff was compared and validated with observation-based global runoff data sets and observed streamflow records at 32 major river gauging stations around the world. Mean annual runoff agreed well with earlier studies at global and continental scales, and in individual basins, the mean bias was less than ±20% in 14 of the 32 river basins and less than ±50% in 24 basins. The error in the peak was less than ±1 mo in 19 of the 27

  15. World Meteorological Organization's model simulations of the radionuclide dispersion and deposition from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draxler, Roland; Arnold, Dèlia; Chino, Masamichi; Galmarini, Stefano; Hort, Matthew; Jones, Andrew; Leadbetter, Susan; Malo, Alain; Maurer, Christian; Rolph, Glenn; Saito, Kazuo; Servranckx, René; Shimbori, Toshiki; Solazzo, Efisio; Wotawa, Gerhard

    2015-01-01

    Five different atmospheric transport and dispersion model's (ATDM) deposition and air concentration results for atmospheric releases from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident were evaluated over Japan using regional (137)Cs deposition measurements and (137)Cs and (131)I air concentration time series at one location about 110 km from the plant. Some of the ATDMs used the same and others different meteorological data consistent with their normal operating practices. There were four global meteorological analyses data sets available and two regional high-resolution analyses. Not all of the ATDMs were able to use all of the meteorological data combinations. The ATDMs were configured identically as much as possible with respect to the release duration, release height, concentration grid size, and averaging time. However, each ATDM retained its unique treatment of the vertical velocity field and the wet and dry deposition, one of the largest uncertainties in these calculations. There were 18 ATDM-meteorology combinations available for evaluation. The deposition results showed that even when using the same meteorological analysis, each ATDM can produce quite different deposition patterns. The better calculations in terms of both deposition and air concentration were associated with the smoother ATDM deposition patterns. The best model with respect to the deposition was not always the best model with respect to air concentrations. The use of high-resolution mesoscale analyses improved ATDM performance; however, high-resolution precipitation analyses did not improve ATDM predictions. Although some ATDMs could be identified as better performers for either deposition or air concentration calculations, overall, the ensemble mean of a subset of better performing members provided more consistent results for both types of calculations.

  16. Evaluating the improvements of the BOLAM meteorological model operational at ISPRA: A case study approach - preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariani, S.; Casaioli, M.; Lastoria, B.; Accadia, C.; Flavoni, S.

    2009-04-01

    The Institute for Environmental Protection and Research - ISPRA (former Agency for Environmental Protection and Technical Services - APAT) runs operationally since 2000 an integrated meteo-marine forecasting chain, named the Hydro-Meteo-Marine Forecasting System (Sistema Idro-Meteo-Mare - SIMM), formed by a cascade of four numerical models, telescoping from the Mediterranean basin to the Venice Lagoon, and initialized by means of analyses and forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The operational integrated system consists of a meteorological model, the parallel verision of BOlogna Limited Area Model (BOLAM), coupled over the Mediterranean sea with a WAve Model (WAM), a high-resolution shallow-water model of the Adriatic and Ionian Sea, namely the Princeton Ocean Model (POM), and a finite-element version of the same model (VL-FEM) on the Venice Lagoon, aimed to forecast the acqua alta events. Recently, the physically based, fully distributed, rainfall-runoff TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and Integration (TOPKAPI) model has been integrated into the system, coupled to BOLAM, over two river basins, located in the central and northeastern part of Italy, respectively. However, at the present time, this latter part of the forecasting chain is not operational and it is used in a research configuration. BOLAM was originally implemented in 2000 onto the Quadrics parallel supercomputer (and for this reason referred to as QBOLAM, as well) and only at the end of 2006 it was ported (together with the other operational marine models of the forecasting chain) onto the Silicon Graphics Inc. (SGI) Altix 8-processor machine. In particular, due to the Quadrics implementation, the Kuo scheme was formerly implemented into QBOLAM for the cumulus convection parameterization. On the contrary, when porting SIMM onto the Altix Linux cluster, it was achievable to implement into QBOLAM the more advanced convection parameterization by Kain and

  17. Higher-order effects in asset-pricing models with long-run risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pohl, W.; Schmedders, K.; Wilms, Ole

    2017-01-01

    This paper shows that the latest generation of asset pricing models with long-run risk exhibits economically significant nonlinearities, and thus the ubiquitous Campbell--Shiller log-linearization can generate large numerical errors. These errors in turn translate to considerable errors in the model

  18. Running Effects on Lepton Mixing Angles in Flavour Models with Type I Seesaw

    CERN Document Server

    Lin, Y; Paris, A

    2009-01-01

    We study renormalization group running effects on neutrino mixing patterns when a (type I) seesaw model is implemented by suitable flavour symmetries. We are particularly interested in mass-independent mixing patterns to which the widely studied tribimaximal mixing pattern belongs. In this class of flavour models, the running contribution from neutrino Yukawa coupling, which is generally dominant at energies above the seesaw threshold, can be absorbed by a small shift on neutrino mass eigenvalues leaving mixing angles unchanged. Consequently, in the whole running energy range, the change in mixing angles is due to the contribution coming from charged lepton sector. Subsequently, we analyze in detail these effects in an explicit flavour model for tribimaximal neutrino mixing based on an A4 discrete symmetry group. We find that for normally ordered light neutrinos, the tribimaximal prediction is essentially stable under renormalization group evolution. On the other hand, in the case of inverted hierarchy, the d...

  19. Models of production runs for multiple products in flexible manufacturing system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilić Oliver

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available How to determine economic production runs (EPR for multiple products in flexible manufacturing systems (FMS is considered in this paper. Eight different although similar, models are developed and presented. The first four models are devoted to the cases when no shortage is allowed. The other four models are some kind of generalization of the previous ones when shortages may exist. The numerical examples are given as the illustration of the proposed models.

  20. NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF SOLITARY WAVE RUN-UP AND OVERTOPPING USING BOUSSINESQ-TYPE MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TSUNG Wen-Shuo; HSIAO Shih-Chun; LIN Ting-Chieh

    2012-01-01

    In this article,the use of a high-order Boussinesq-type model and sets of laboratory experiments in a large scale flume of breaking solitary waves climbing up slopes with two inclinations are presented to study the shoreline behavior of breaking and non-breaking solitary waves on plane slopes.The scale effect on run-up height is briefly discussed.The model simulation capability is well validated against the available laboratory data and present experiments.Then,serial numerical tests are conducted to study the shoreline motion correlated with the effects of beach slope and wave nonlinearity for breaking and non-breaking waves.The empirical formula proposed by Hsiao et al.for predicting the maximum run-up height of a breaking solitary wave on plane slopes with a wide range of slope inclinations is confirmed to be cautious.Furthermore,solitary waves impacting and overtopping an impermeable sloping seawall at various water depths are investigated.Laboratory data of run-up height,shoreline motion,free surface elevation and overtopping discharge are presented.Comparisons of run-up,run-down,shoreline trajectory and wave overtopping discharge are made.A fairly good agreement is seen between numerical results and experimental data.It elucidates that the present depth-integrated model can be used as an efficient tool for predicting a wide spectrum of coastal problems.

  1. Parallelization and Performance of the NIM Weather Model Running on GPUs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Govett, Mark; Middlecoff, Jacques; Henderson, Tom; Rosinski, James

    2014-05-01

    The Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Model (NIM) is a global weather prediction model being developed to run on the GPU and MIC fine-grain architectures. The model dynamics, written in Fortran, was initially parallelized for GPUs in 2009 using the F2C-ACC compiler and demonstrated good results running on a single GPU. Subsequent efforts have focused on (1) running efficiently on multiple GPUs, (2) parallelization of NIM for Intel-MIC using openMP, (3) assessing commercial Fortran GPU compilers now available from Cray, PGI and CAPS, (4) keeping the model up to date with the latest scientific development while maintaining a single source performance portable code, and (5) parallelization of two physics packages used in the NIM: the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) used operationally, and the widely used Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model physics. The presentation will touch on each of these efforts, but highlight improvements in parallel performance of the NIM running on the Titan GPU cluster at ORNL, the ongong parallelization of model physics, and a recent evaluation of commercial GPU compilers using the F2C-ACC compiler as the baseline.

  2. Comparison of Particle Flow Code and Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics Modelling of Landslide Run outs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preh, A.; Poisel, R.; Hungr, O.

    2009-04-01

    In most continuum mechanics methods modelling the run out of landslides the moving mass is divided into a number of elements, the velocities of which can be established by numerical integration of Newtońs second law (Lagrangian solution). The methods are based on fluid mechanics modelling the movements of an equivalent fluid. In 2004, McDougall and Hungr presented a three-dimensional numerical model for rapid landslides, e.g. debris flows and rock avalanches, called DAN3D.The method is based on the previous work of Hungr (1995) and is using an integrated two-dimensional Lagrangian solution and meshless Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) principle to maintain continuity. DAN3D has an open rheological kernel, allowing the use of frictional (with constant porepressure ratio) and Voellmy rheologies and gives the possibility to change material rheology along the path. Discontinuum (granular) mechanics methods model the run out mass as an assembly of particles moving down a surface. Each particle is followed exactly as it moves and interacts with the surface and with its neighbours. Every particle is checked on contacts with every other particle in every time step using a special cell-logic for contact detection in order to reduce the computational effort. The Discrete Element code PFC3D was adapted in order to make possible discontinuum mechanics models of run outs. Punta Thurwieser Rock Avalanche and Frank Slide were modelled by DAN as well as by PFC3D. The simulations showed correspondingly that the parameters necessary to get results coinciding with observations in nature are completely different. The maximum velocity distributions due to DAN3D reveal that areas of different maximum flow velocity are next to each other in Punta Thurwieser run out whereas the distribution of maximum flow velocity shows almost constant maximum flow velocity over the width of the run out regarding Frank Slide. Some 30 percent of total kinetic energy is rotational kinetic energy in

  3. Smart Irrigation From Soil Moisture Forecast Using Satellite And Hydro -Meteorological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco; Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ceppi, Alessandro; Salerno, Raffaele; Sobrino, Josè

    2017-04-01

    Increased water demand and climate change impacts have recently enhanced the need to improve water resources management, even in those areas which traditionally have an abundant supply of water. The highest consumption of water is devoted to irrigation for agricultural production, and so it is in this area that efforts have to be focused to study possible interventions. The SIM project funded by EU in the framework of the WaterWorks2014 - Water Joint Programming Initiative aims at developing an operational tool for real-time forecast of crops irrigation water requirements to support parsimonious water management and to optimize irrigation scheduling providing real-time and forecasted soil moisture behavior at high spatial and temporal resolutions with forecast horizons from few up to thirty days. This study discusses advances in coupling satellite driven soil water balance model and meteorological forecast as support for precision irrigation use comparing different case studies in Italy, in the Netherlands, in China and Spain, characterized by different climatic conditions, water availability, crop types and irrigation techniques and water distribution rules. Herein, the applications in two operative farms in vegetables production in the South of Italy where semi-arid climatic conditions holds, two maize fields in Northern Italy in a more water reach environment with flood irrigation will be presented. This system combines state of the art mathematical models and new technologies for environmental monitoring, merging ground observed data with Earth observations. Discussion on the methodology approach is presented, comparing for a reanalysis periods the forecast system outputs with observed soil moisture and crop water needs proving the reliability of the forecasting system and its benefits. The real-time visualization of the implemented system is also presented through web-dashboards.

  4. Search for the standard model Higgs boson produced in vector boson fusion and decaying to bottom quarks using the Run1 and 2015 Run2 data samples.

    CERN Document Server

    Chernyavskaya, Nadezda

    2016-01-01

    A search for the standard model Higgs boson is presented in the Vector Boson Fusion production channel with decay to bottom quarks. A data sample comprising 2.2 fb$^-1$ of proton-proton collision at $\\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV collected during the 2015 running period has been analyzed. Production upper limits at 95\\% Confidence Level are derived for a Higgs boson mass of 125 GeV, as well as the fitted signal strength relative to the expectation for the standard model Higgs boson. Results are also combined with the ones obtained with Run1 sqrt(s) = 8 TeV data collected in 2012.

  5. Coupling X-band dual-polarized mini-radars and hydro-meteorological forecast models: the HYDRORAD project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picciotti, E.; Marzano, F. S.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Kalogiros, J.; Fessas, Y.; Volpi, A.; Cazac, V.; Pace, R.; Cinque, G.; Bernardini, L.; De Sanctis, K.; Di Fabio, S.; Montopoli, M.; Anagnostou, M. N.; Telleschi, A.; Dimitriou, E.; Stella, J.

    2013-05-01

    Hydro-meteorological hazards like convective outbreaks leading to torrential rain and floods are among the most critical environmental issues world-wide. In that context weather radar observations have proven to be very useful in providing information on the spatial distribution of rainfall that can support early warning of floods. However, quantitative precipitation estimation by radar is subjected to many limitations and uncertainties. The use of dual-polarization at high frequency (i.e. X-band) has proven particularly useful for mitigating some of the limitation of operational systems, by exploiting the benefit of easiness to transport and deploy and the high spatial and temporal resolution achievable at small antenna sizes. New developments on X-band dual-polarization technology in recent years have received the interest of scientific and operational communities in these systems. New enterprises are focusing on the advancement of cost-efficient mini-radar network technology, based on high-frequency (mainly X-band) and low-power weather radar systems for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological forecasting. Within the above context, the main objective of the HYDRORAD project was the development of an innovative integrated decision support tool for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological applications. The integrated system tool is based on a polarimetric X-band mini-radar network which is the core of the decision support tool, a novel radar products generator and a hydro-meteorological forecast modelling system that ingests mini-radar rainfall products to forecast precipitation and floods. The radar products generator includes algorithms for attenuation correction, hydrometeor classification, a vertical profile reflectivity correction, a new polarimetric rainfall estimators developed for mini-radar observations, and short-term nowcasting of convective cells. The hydro-meteorological modelling system includes the Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) and the Army Corps

  6. Modeling of meteorology, tracer transport and chemistry for the Uintah Basin Winter Ozone Studies 2012 and 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadov, R.; McKeen, S. A.; Angevine, W. M.; Frost, G. J.; Roberts, J. M.; De Gouw, J. A.; Warneke, C.; Peischl, J.; Brown, S. S.; Edwards, P. M.; Wild, R. J.; Pichugina, Y. L.; Banta, R. M.; Brewer, A.; Senff, C. J.; Langford, A. O.; Petron, G.; Karion, A.; Sweeney, C.; Schnell, R. C.; Johnson, B.; Zamora, R. J.; Helmig, D.; Park, J.; Evans, J.; Stephens, C. R.; Olson, J. B.; Trainer, M.

    2013-12-01

    The Uintah Basin Winter Ozone Studies (UBWOS) field campaigns took place during winter of 2012 and 2013 in the Uintah Basin, Utah. The studies were aimed at characterizing meteorology, emissions of atmospheric constituents and air chemistry in a region abundant with oil and gas production, with associated emissions of various volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and NOx. High ozone pollution events were observed throughout the Uintah Basin during the winter of 2013, but not during the winter of 2012. A clear understanding of the processes leading to high ozone events is still lacking. We present here high spatiotemporal resolution simulations of meteorology, tracer transport and gas chemistry over the basin during January-February, 2012 and 2013 using the WRF/Chem regional photochemical model. Correctly characterizing the meteorology poses unique challenges due to complex terrain, cold-pool conditions, and shallow inversion layers observed during the winter of 2013. We discuss the approach taken to adequately simulate the meteorology over the basin and present evaluations of the modeled meteorology using surface, lidar and tethersonde measurements. Initial simulations use a passive tracer within the model as a surrogate for CH4 released from oil and gas wells. These tracer transport simulations show that concentrations of inert, emitted species near the surface in 2013 were 4-8 times higher than 2012 due to much shallower boundary layers and reduced winds in 2013. This is supported by in-situ measurements of CH4 made at the Horse Pool surface station during the field campaigns. Full photochemical simulations are forced by VOC and NOx emissions that are determined in a top-down approach, using observed emission ratios of VOC and NOx relative to CH4, along with available information of active wells, compressors, and processing plants. We focus on differences in meteorology, temperature, and radiation between the two winters in determining ozone concentrations in the

  7. Coupling X-band dual-polarized mini-radars and hydro-meteorological forecast models: the HYDRORAD project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Picciotti

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Hydro-meteorological hazards like convective outbreaks leading to torrential rain and floods are among the most critical environmental issues world-wide. In that context weather radar observations have proven to be very useful in providing information on the spatial distribution of rainfall that can support early warning of floods. However, quantitative precipitation estimation by radar is subjected to many limitations and uncertainties. The use of dual-polarization at high frequency (i.e. X-band has proven particularly useful for mitigating some of the limitation of operational systems, by exploiting the benefit of easiness to transport and deploy and the high spatial and temporal resolution achievable at small antenna sizes. New developments on X-band dual-polarization technology in recent years have received the interest of scientific and operational communities in these systems. New enterprises are focusing on the advancement of cost-efficient mini-radar network technology, based on high-frequency (mainly X-band and low-power weather radar systems for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological forecasting. Within the above context, the main objective of the HYDRORAD project was the development of an innovative mbox{integrated} decision support tool for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological applications. The integrated system tool is based on a polarimetric X-band mini-radar network which is the core of the decision support tool, a novel radar products generator and a hydro-meteorological forecast modelling system that ingests mini-radar rainfall products to forecast precipitation and floods. The radar products generator includes algorithms for attenuation correction, hydrometeor classification, a vertical profile reflectivity correction, a new polarimetric rainfall estimators developed for mini-radar observations, and short-term nowcasting of convective cells. The hydro-meteorological modelling system includes the Mesoscale Model 5

  8. Sulphur simulations for East Asia using the MATCH model with meteorological data from ECMWF

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engardt, Magnuz

    2000-03-01

    As part of a model intercomparison exercise, with participants from a number of Asian, European and American institutes, sulphur transport and conversion calculations were conducted over an East Asian domain for 2 different months in 1993. All participants used the same emission inventory and simulated concentration and deposition at a number of prescribed geographic locations. The participants were asked to run their respective model both with standard parameters, and with a set of given parameters, in order to examine the different behaviour of the models. The study included comparison with measured data and model-to-model intercomparisons, notably source-receptor relationships. We hereby describe the MATCH model, used in the study, and report some typical results. We find that although the standard and the prescribed set of model parameters differed significantly in terms of sulphur conversion and wet scavenging rate, the resulting change in atmospheric concentrations and surface depositions only change marginally. We show that it is often more critical to choose a representative gridbox value than selecting a parameter from the suite available. The modelled, near-surface, atmospheric concentration of sulphur in eastern China is typically 5- 10 {mu}g S m{sup -3}, with large areas exceeding 20 {mu}g S m{sup -3}. In southern Japan the values range from 2-5 {mu}g S m{sup -3} . Atmospheric SO{sub 2} dominates over sulphate near the emission regions while sulphate concentrations are higher over e.g. the western Pacific. The sulphur deposition exceeds several g sulphur m{sup -2} year{sup -1} in large areas of China. Southern Japan receives 03-1 g S m{sup -2} year{sup -1}. In January, the total wet deposition roughly equals the dry deposition, in May - when it rains more in the domain - total wet deposition is ca. 50% larger than total dry deposition.

  9. Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Samra, R.; Bou-Zeid, E.; Bangalath, H. K.; Stenchikov, G.; El-Fadel, M.

    2017-02-01

    A set of ten downscaling simulations at high spatial resolution (3 km horizontally) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate future climate projections of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over the Eastern Mediterranean (with a focus on Lebanon). The model was driven with the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), running over the whole globe at a resolution of 25 km, under the conditions of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (4.5 and 8.5). Each downscaling simulation spanned one year. Two past years (2003 and 2008), also forced by HiRAM without data assimilation, were simulated to evaluate the model's ability to capture the cold and wet (2003) and hot and dry (2008) extremes. The downscaled data were in the range of recent observed climatic variability, and therefore corrected for the cold bias of HiRAM. Eight future years were then selected based on an anomaly score that relies on the mean annual temperature and accumulated precipitation to identify the worst year per decade from a water resources perspective. One hot and dry year per decade, from 2011 to 2050, and per scenario was simulated and compared to the historic 2008 reference. The results indicate that hot and dry future extreme years will be exacerbated and the study area might be exposed to a significant decrease in annual precipitation (rain and snow), reaching up to 30% relative to the current extreme conditions.

  10. Mesoscale numerical modeling of meteorological events in a strong topographic gradient in the northeastern part of Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pineda-Martinez, Luis F.; Carbajal, Noel [IPICYT, San Luis Potosi (Mexico)

    2009-08-15

    A series of numerical experiments were carried out to study the effect of meteorological events such as warm and cold air masses on climatic features and variability of a understudied region with strong topographic gradients in the northeastern part of Mexico. We applied the mesoscale model MM5. We investigated the influence of soil moisture availability in the performance of the model under two representative events for winter and summer. The results showed that a better resolution in land use cover improved the agreement among observed and calculated data. The topography induces atmospheric circulation patterns that determine the spatial distribution of climate and seasonal behavior. The numerical experiments reveal regions favorable to forced convection on the eastern side of the mountain chains Eastern Sierra Madre and Sierra de Alvarez. These processes affect the vertical and horizontal structure of the meteorological variables along the topographic gradient. (orig.)

  11. Impact of atmospheric release in stable night meteorological conditions; can emergency models predict dispersion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Connan, O.; Hebert, D.; Solier, L.; Voiseux, C.; Lamotte, M.; Laguionie, P.; Maro, D.; Thomas, L. [IRSN/PRP-ENV/SERIS/LRC (France)

    2014-07-01

    Atmospheric dispersion of pollutant or radionuclides in stratified meteorological condition, i.e. especially when weather conditions are very stable, mainly at night, is still poorly understood and not well apprehended by the operational atmospheric dispersion models. However, correctly predicting the dispersion of a radioactive plume, and estimating the radiological consequences for the population, following an unplanned atmospheric release of radionuclides are crucial steps in an emergency response. To better understand dispersion in these special weather conditions, IRSN performed a series of 22 air sampling campaigns between 2010 and 2013 in the vicinity of the La Hague nuclear reprocessing plant (AREVA - NC, France), at distances between 200 m and 3000 m from the facility. Krypton-85 ({sup 85}Kr), a b-and g-emitting radionuclide, released during the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel was used as a non-reactive tracer of radioactive plumes. Experimental campaigns were realized in stability class stable or very stable (E or F according to Pasquill classification) 18 times, and in neutral conditions (D according to Pasquill classification) 4 times. During each campaign, Krypton-85 real time measurement were made to find the plume around the plant, and then integrated samples (30 min) were collected in bag perpendicularly to the assumed wind direction axis. After measurement by gamma spectrometry, we have, when it was possible, estimate the point of impact and the width of the plume. The objective was to estimate the horizontal dispersion (width) of the plume at ground level in function of the distance and be able to calculate atmospheric transfer coefficients. In a second step, objective was to conclude on the use of common model and on their uncertainties. The results will be presented in terms of impact on the near-field. They will be compared with data obtained in previous years in neutral atmospheric conditions, and finally the results will be confronted with

  12. Strong Lensing Probabilities in a Cosmological Model with a Running Primordial Power Spectrum

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, T J; Yang, Z L; He, X T; Zhang, Tong-Jie; Chen, Da-Ming; Yang, Zhi-Liang; He, Xiang-Tao

    2004-01-01

    The combination of the first-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) data with other finer scale cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments (CBI and ACBAR) and two structure formation measurements (2dFGRS and Lyman $\\alpha$ forest) suggest a $\\Lambda$CDM cosmological model with a running spectral power index of primordial density fluctuations. Motivated by this new result on the index of primordial power spectrum, we present the first study on the predicted lensing probabilities of image separation in a spatially flat $\\Lambda$CDM model with a running spectral index (RSI-$\\Lambda$CDM model). It is shown that the RSI-$\\Lambda$CDM model suppress the predicted lensing probabilities on small splitting angles of less than about 4$^{''}$ compared with that of standard power-law $\\Lambda$CDM (PL-$\\Lambda$CDM) model.

  13. Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

    KAUST Repository

    El-Samra, R.

    2017-02-15

    A set of ten downscaling simulations at high spatial resolution (3 km horizontally) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate future climate projections of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over the Eastern Mediterranean (with a focus on Lebanon). The model was driven with the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), running over the whole globe at a resolution of 25 km, under the conditions of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (4.5 and 8.5). Each downscaling simulation spanned one year. Two past years (2003 and 2008), also forced by HiRAM without data assimilation, were simulated to evaluate the model’s ability to capture the cold and wet (2003) and hot and dry (2008) extremes. The downscaled data were in the range of recent observed climatic variability, and therefore corrected for the cold bias of HiRAM. Eight future years were then selected based on an anomaly score that relies on the mean annual temperature and accumulated precipitation to identify the worst year per decade from a water resources perspective. One hot and dry year per decade, from 2011 to 2050, and per scenario was simulated and compared to the historic 2008 reference. The results indicate that hot and dry future extreme years will be exacerbated and the study area might be exposed to a significant decrease in annual precipitation (rain and snow), reaching up to 30% relative to the current extreme conditions.

  14. The meteorology of Gale Crater as determined from Rover Environmental Monitoring Station observations and numerical modeling. Part II: Interpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafkin, Scot C. R.; Pla-Garcia, Jorge; Kahre, Melinda; Gomez-Elvira, Javier; Hamilton, Victoria E.; Marín, Mercedes; Navarro, Sara; Torres, Josefina; Vasavada, Ashwin

    2016-12-01

    Numerical modeling results from the Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System are used to interpret the landed meteorological data from the Rover Environmental Monitoring Station onboard the Mars Science Laboratory rover Curiosity. In order to characterize seasonal changes throughout the Martian year, simulations are conducted at Ls 0, 90, 180 and 270. Two additional simulations at Ls 225 and 315 are explored to better understand the unique meteorological setting centered on Ls 270. The synergistic combination of model and observations reveals a complex meteorological environment within the crater. Seasonal planetary circulations, the thermal tide, slope flows along the topographic dichotomy, mesoscale waves, slope flows along the crater slopes and Mt. Sharp, and turbulent motions all interact in nonlinear ways to produce the observed weather. Ls 270 is shown to be an anomalous season when air within and outside the crater is well mixed by strong, flushing northerly flow and large amplitude, breaking mountain waves. At other seasons, the air in the crater is more isolated from the surrounding environment. The potential impact of the partially isolated crater air mass on the dust, water, noncondensable and methane cycles is also considered. In contrast to previous studies, the large amplitude diurnal pressure signal is attributed primarily to necessary hydrostatic adjustments associated with topography of different elevations, with contributions of less than 25% to the diurnal amplitude from the crater circulation itself. The crater circulation is shown to induce a suppressed boundary layer.

  15. Analysis of the Effects of Different Land Use and Land Cover Classification on Surface Meteorological Variables using WRF Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sati, A. P.

    2015-12-01

    The continuous population growth and the subsequent economic expansion over centuries have been the primary drivers of land use /land cover (LULC) changes resulting in the environmental changes across the globe. Most of the urban areas being developed today are on the expense of agricultural or barren lands and the changes result from various practices such as deforestation, changing agriculture practices, rapid expansion of urban centers etc.For modeling applications, classification of land use is important and periodic updates of land cover are necessary to capture change due to LULC changes.Updated land cover and land use data derived from satellites offer the possibility of consistent and regularly collected information on LULC. In this study we explore the application of Landsat based LULC classification inWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in predicting the meteorology over Delhi, India. The supervised classification of Landsat 8 imagery over Delhi region is performed which update the urban extent as well as other Land use for the region. WRF model simulations are performed using LULC classification from Landsat data, United States Geological Survey (USGS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for various meteorological parameters. Modifications in LULC showed a significant effect on various surface meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, wind circulations and other underlying surface parameters. There is a considerable improvement in the spatial distribution of the surface meteorological parameters with correction in input LULC. The study demonstrates the improved LULC classification from Landsat data than currently in vogue and their potential to improve numerical weather simulations especially for expanding urban areas.The continuous population growth and the subsequent economic expansion over centuries have been the primary drivers of land use /land cover (LULC) changes resulting in the environmental changes

  16. The introduction of horizontal inhomogeneity of meteorological conditions in the EOSTAR propagation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eijk, A.M.J. van; Kunz, G.J.

    2006-01-01

    The effective field-of-view of an electro-optical sensor in a given meteorological scenario can be evaluated using a ray-tracer. The resulting ray trace diagram also provides information pertinent to the quality (distortion, mirages) of the image being viewed by the sensor. The EOSTAR (Electro Optic

  17. Running the running

    CERN Document Server

    Cabass, Giovanni; Melchiorri, Alessandro; Pajer, Enrico; Silk, Joseph

    2016-01-01

    We use the recent observations of Cosmic Microwave Background temperature and polarization anisotropies provided by the Planck satellite experiment to place constraints on the running $\\alpha_\\mathrm{s} = \\mathrm{d}n_{\\mathrm{s}} / \\mathrm{d}\\log k$ and the running of the running $\\beta_{\\mathrm{s}} = \\mathrm{d}\\alpha_{\\mathrm{s}} / \\mathrm{d}\\log k$ of the spectral index $n_{\\mathrm{s}}$ of primordial scalar fluctuations. We find $\\alpha_\\mathrm{s}=0.011\\pm0.010$ and $\\beta_\\mathrm{s}=0.027\\pm0.013$ at $68\\%\\,\\mathrm{CL}$, suggesting the presence of a running of the running at the level of two standard deviations. We find no significant correlation between $\\beta_{\\mathrm{s}}$ and foregrounds parameters, with the exception of the point sources amplitude at $143\\,\\mathrm{GHz}$, $A^{PS}_{143}$, which shifts by half sigma when the running of the running is considered. We further study the cosmological implications of this anomaly by including in the analysis the lensing amplitude $A_L$, the curvature parameter ...

  18. The Run up Tsunami Modeling in Bengkulu using the Spatial Interpolation of Kriging Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yulian Fauzi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to design a tsunami hazard zone with the scenario of tsunami run-up height variation based on land use, slope and distance from the shoreline. The method used in this research is spatial modelling with GIS via Ordinary Kriging interpolation technique. Kriging interpolation method that is the best in this study is shown by Circular Kriging method with good semivariogram and RMSE values which are small compared to other RMSE kriging methods. The results shows that the area affected by the tsunami inundation run-up height, slope and land use. In the run-up to 30 meters, flooded areas are about 3,148.99 hectares or 20.7% of the total area of the city of Bengkulu.

  19. Sensitivity of Global Modeling Initiative CTM predictions of Antarctic ozone recovery to GCM and DAS generated meteorological fields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rotman, D; Bergmann, D

    2003-12-04

    We use the Global Modeling Initiative chemistry and transport model to simulate the evolution of stratospheric ozone between 1995 and 2030, using boundary conditions consistent with the recent World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment. We compare the Antarctic ozone recovery predictions of two simulations, one driven by meteorological data from a general circulation model (GCM), the other using the output of a data assimilation system (DAS), to examine the sensitivity of Antarctic ozone recovery predictions to the characteristic dynamical differences between GCM and DAS-generated meteorological data. Although the age of air in the Antarctic lower stratosphere differs by a factor of 2 between the simulations, we find little sensitivity of the 1995-2030 Antarctic ozone recovery between 350 K and 650 K to the differing meteorological fields, particularly when the recovery is specified in mixing ratio units. Relative changes are smaller in the DAS-driven simulation compared to the GCM-driven simulation due to a surplus of Antarctic ozone in the DAS-driven simulation which is not consistent with observations. The peak ozone change between 1995 and 2030 in both simulations is {approx}20% lower than photochemical expectations, indicating that changes in ozone transport at 450 K between 1995 and 2030 constitute a small negative feedback. Total winter/spring ozone loss during the base year (1995) of both simulations and the rate of ozone loss during August and September is somewhat weaker than observed. This appears to be due to underestimates of Antarctic Cl{sub y} at the 450 K potential temperature level.

  20. Simulating run-up on steep slopes with operational Boussinesq models; capabilities, spurious effects and instabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Løvholt

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Tsunamis induced by rock slides plunging into fjords constitute a severe threat to local coastal communities. The rock slide impact may give rise to highly non-linear waves in the near field, and because the wave lengths are relatively short, frequency dispersion comes into play. Fjord systems are rugged with steep slopes, and modeling non-linear dispersive waves in this environment with simultaneous run-up is demanding. We have run an operational Boussinesq-type TVD (total variation diminishing model using different run-up formulations. Two different tests are considered, inundation on steep slopes and propagation in a trapezoidal channel. In addition, a set of Lagrangian models serves as reference models. Demanding test cases with solitary waves with amplitudes ranging from 0.1 to 0.5 were applied, and slopes were ranging from 10 to 50°. Different run-up formulations yielded clearly different accuracy and stability, and only some provided similar accuracy as the reference models. The test cases revealed that the model was prone to instabilities for large non-linearity and fine resolution. Some of the instabilities were linked with false breaking during the first positive inundation, which was not observed for the reference models. None of the models were able to handle the bore forming during drawdown, however. The instabilities are linked to short-crested undulations on the grid scale, and appear on fine resolution during inundation. As a consequence, convergence was not always obtained. It is reason to believe that the instability may be a general problem for Boussinesq models in fjords.

  1. A model-experiment comparison of system dynamics for human walking and running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipfert, Susanne W; Günther, Michael; Renjewski, Daniel; Grimmer, Sten; Seyfarth, Andre

    2012-01-07

    The human musculo-skeletal system comprises high complexity which makes it difficult to identify underlying basic principles of bipedal locomotion. To tackle this challenge, a common approach is to strip away complexity and formulate a reductive model. With utter simplicity a bipedal spring-mass model gives good predictions of the human gait dynamics, however, it has not been fully investigated whether center of mass motion over time of walking and running is comparable between the model and the human body over a wide range of speed. To test the model's ability in this respect, we compare sagittal center of mass trajectories of model and human data for speeds ranging from 0.5 m/s to 4 m/s. For simulations, system parameters and initial conditions are extracted from experimental observations of 28 subjects. The leg parameters stiffness and length are extracted from functional fitting to the subjects' leg force-length curves. With small variations of the touch-down angle of the leg and the vertical position of the center of mass at apex, we find successful spring-mass simulations for moderate walking and medium running speeds. Predictions of the sagittal center of mass trajectories and ground reaction forces are good, but their amplitudes are overestimated, while contact time is underestimated. At faster walking speeds and slower running speeds we do not find successful model locomotion with the extent of allowed parameter variation. We conclude that the existing limitations may be improved by adding complexity to the model.

  2. Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs*

    KAUST Repository

    Castruccio, Stefano

    2014-03-01

    The authors describe a new approach for emulating the output of a fully coupled climate model under arbitrary forcing scenarios that is based on a small set of precomputed runs from the model. Temperature and precipitation are expressed as simple functions of the past trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and a statistical model is fit using a limited set of training runs. The approach is demonstrated to be a useful and computationally efficient alternative to pattern scaling and captures the nonlinear evolution of spatial patterns of climate anomalies inherent in transient climates. The approach does as well as pattern scaling in all circumstances and substantially better in many; it is not computationally demanding; and, once the statistical model is fit, it produces emulated climate output effectively instantaneously. It may therefore find wide application in climate impacts assessments and other policy analyses requiring rapid climate projections.

  3. Can neuromuscular fatigue explain running strategies and performance in ultra-marathons?: the flush model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millet, Guillaume Y

    2011-06-01

    While the industrialized world adopts a largely sedentary lifestyle, ultra-marathon running races have become increasingly popular in the last few years in many countries. The ability to run long distances is also considered to have played a role in human evolution. This makes the issue of ultra-long distance physiology important. In the ability to run multiples of 10 km (up to 1000 km in one stage), fatigue resistance is critical. Fatigue is generally defined as strength loss (i.e. a decrease in maximal voluntary contraction [MVC]), which is known to be dependent on the type of exercise. Critical task variables include the intensity and duration of the activity, both of which are very specific to ultra-endurance sports. They also include the muscle groups involved and the type of muscle contraction, two variables that depend on the sport under consideration. The first part of this article focuses on the central and peripheral causes of the alterations to neuromuscular function that occur in ultra-marathon running. Neuromuscular function evaluation requires measurements of MVCs and maximal electrical/magnetic stimulations; these provide an insight into the factors in the CNS and the muscles implicated in fatigue. However, such measurements do not necessarily predict how muscle function may influence ultra-endurance running and whether this has an effect on speed regulation during a real competition (i.e. when pacing strategies are involved). In other words, the nature of the relationship between fatigue as measured using maximal contractions/stimulation and submaximal performance limitation/regulation is questionable. To investigate this issue, we are suggesting a holistic model in the second part of this article. This model can be applied to all endurance activities, but is specifically adapted to ultra-endurance running: the flush model. This model has the following four components: (i) the ball-cock (or buoy), which can be compared with the rate of perceived

  4. Tsunami generation, propagation, and run-up with a high-order Boussinesq model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuhrman, David R.; Madsen, Per A.

    2009-01-01

    In this work we extend a high-order Boussinesq-type (finite difference) model, capable of simulating waves out to wavenumber times depth kh landslide-induced tsunamis. The extension is straight forward, requiring only....... The Boussinesq-type model is then used to simulate numerous tsunami-type events generated from submerged landslides, in both one and two horizontal dimensions. The results again compare well against previous experiments and/or numerical simulations. The new extension compliments recently developed run...

  5. Meso- and Micro-scale Modelling in China: Wind atlas analysis for 12 meteorological stations in NE China (Dongbei)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Gylling; Yang, Z.; Hansen, Jens Carsten

    As part of the “Meso-Scale and Micro-Scale Modelling in China” project, also known as the CMA component of the Sino-Danish Wind Energy Development Programme (WED), microscale modelling and analyses have been carried out for 12 meteorological stations in NE China. Wind speed and direction data from...... constructed from Google Earth satellite imagery. The maps have been compared to Chinese topographical maps and adjusted accordingly. Summaries are given of the data measured at the 12 masts for the reference period 2009. The main result of the microscale modelling is an observational wind atlas for NE China...

  6. Human and avian running on uneven ground: a model-based comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birn-Jeffery, A. V.; Blum, Y.

    2016-01-01

    Birds and humans are successful bipedal runners, who have individually evolved bipedalism, but the extent of the similarities and differences of their bipedal locomotion is unknown. In turn, the anatomical differences of their locomotor systems complicate direct comparisons. However, a simplifying mechanical model, such as the conservative spring–mass model, can be used to describe both avian and human running and thus, provides a way to compare the locomotor strategies that birds and humans use when running on level and uneven ground. Although humans run with significantly steeper leg angles at touchdown and stiffer legs when compared with cursorial ground birds, swing-leg adaptations (leg angle and leg length kinematics) used by birds and humans while running appear similar across all types of uneven ground. Nevertheless, owing to morphological restrictions, the crouched avian leg has a greater range of leg angle and leg length adaptations when coping with drops and downward steps than the straight human leg. On the other hand, the straight human leg seems to use leg stiffness adaptation when coping with obstacles and upward steps unlike the crouched avian leg posture. PMID:27655670

  7. Examining the influence of meteorological simulations forced by different initial and boundary conditions in volcanic ash dispersion modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulena, Gabriela C.; Allende, David G.; Puliafito, Salvador E.; Lakkis, Susan G.; Cremades, Pablo G.; Ulke, Ana G.

    2016-07-01

    The performance of the combination of the FALL3D ash dispersion model with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) meteorological model in the southern cone of South America under two initial and boundary conditions was evaluated. ERA-Interim and NCEP-GFS datasets were used as dynamic conditions by WRF to simulate meteorological fields for FALL3D. As a study case, we used the eruption of the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex occurred in Chile in June 2011. The simulated meteorological results were compared with the horizontal wind direction, meridional and zonal wind components, air and dew point temperatures of 7 radio sounding stations using a set of error indicators. In addition, the ash mass load simulated by FALL3D for a day of maximum dispersion of volcanic ash was evaluated using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, on which the Prata algorithm was applied. As well as this, the WRF-dominant physical processes with both dynamic conditions were analyzed for that same date. Meteorological results indicated that the simulation performed with WRF and NCEP-GFS shows the lowest errors at levels between 925 and 300 hPa. Ash dispersion simulated with FALL3D and WRF in both dynamic conditions shows a different perfomance, which from the synoptic and dynamic viewpoint can be explained for the result of wind intensity and geopotential height. Moreover, WRF intiliazed with NCEP-GFS and FALL3D has a higher degree of concordance with the MODIS image. Based on the analysis and results, it was concluded that for the southern cone of South America, 1) it was not trivial for the simulation of volcanic ash dispersion to use one dynamic condition or another in WRF; 2) in that sense, meteorological variables that influenced the differences in volcanic ash dispersion were horizontal wind intensity and direction and geopotential heights; 3) the system generated from the combination of the WRF model initialized with NCEP-GFS and the FALL3D dispersion

  8. Crop weather models of corn and soybeans for Agrophysical Units (APU's) in Iowa using monthly meteorological predictors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leduc, S. (Principal Investigator)

    1982-01-01

    Models based on multiple regression were developed to estimate corn and soybean yield from weather data for agrophysical units (APU) in Iowa. The predictor variables are derived from monthly average temperature and monthly total precipitation data at meteorological stations in the cooperative network. The models are similar in form to the previous models developed for crop reporting districts (CRD). The trends and derived variables were the same and the approach to select the significant predictors was similar to that used in developing the CRD models. The APU's were selected to be more homogeneous with respect crop to production than the CRDs. The APU models are quite similar to the CRD models, similar explained variation and number of predictor variables. The APU models are to be independently evaluated and compared to the previously evaluated CRD models. That comparison should indicate the preferred model area for this application, i.e., APU or CRD.

  9. Status of the Inert Doublet Model of dark matter after Run-1 of the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Goudelis, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    The Inert Doublet Model (IDM) is one of the simplest extensions of the Standard Model that can provide a viable dark matter (DM) candidate. Despite its simplicity, it predicts a versatile phenomenology both for cosmology and for the Large Hadron Collider. We briefly summarize the status of searches for IDM dark matter in direct DM detection experiments and the LHC, focusing on the impact of the latter on the model parameter space. In particular, we discuss the consequences of the Higgs boson discovery as well as those of searches for dileptons accompanied by missing transverse energy during the first LHC Run and comment on the prospects of probing some of the hardest to test regions of the IDM parameter space during the 13 TeV Run.

  10. How can the polar dome be identified in meteorological analysis model data?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunkel, Daniel; Bozem, Heiko; Gutmann, Robert; Hoor, Peter

    2016-04-01

    The thermal stratification of the lower atmosphere at high latitudes causes an isolation of polar regions from lower latitudes. A transport barrier establishes in the region where isentropic surfaces slope upward from near surface to higher altitudes. This barrier is also known as the polar dome. For adiabatic flow the transport of air masses from midlatitudes into high latitudes occurs almost along the isentropic surfaces. Only diabatic processes related to clouds, radiation, or turbulence can foster a transport across the barrier. Such processes can be identified by the material rate of change of potential temperature which have to occur in the vicinity of the polar dome. Thus, to identify regions of exchange, it is first crucial to know where the transport barrier is located. The question arises then which meteorological variables may be suited to identify the location of this transport barrier. A second question is how the shape of the polar dome changes during different time periods of the year? For this we use gridded analysis model data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) with high spatial resolution for several time periods during 2014 and 2015. Especially, we focus on time periods during spring and summer when extensive in-situ measurement campaigns took place in the high Arctic. We define four metrics to identify the location, i.e., the latitude, of the transport barrier at various altitudes, e.g., the surface or a surface of constant pressure in the lower troposphere. These metrics are based on (1) a constant value of potential temperature that intersects a given altitude, (2) the strongest gradient of potential temperature on a given altitude level, and (3) the relative difference between equivalent potential temperature and potential temperature at the surface. The last metric is based on a Lagrangian analysis for which ten days forward and backward trajectories are calculated, starting at each grid point between 45

  11. The Multi-Scale Numerical Modeling System for Research on the Relationship between Urban Planning and Meteorological Environment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    房小怡; 蒋维楣; 苗世光; 张宁; 徐敏; 季崇萍; 陈鲜艳; 魏建民; 王志华; 王晓云

    2004-01-01

    Considering the urban characteristics,a customized multi-scale numerical modeling system is established to simulate the urban meteorological environment.The system mainly involves three spatial scales:the urban scale,urban sub-domain scale,and single to few buildings scale.In it,different underlying surface types axe employed,the building drag factor is used to replace its roughness in the influence on the urban wind field,the effects of building distribution,azimuth and screening of shortwave radiation are added,and the influence of anthropogenic heating is also taken into account.All the numerical tests indicate that the simulated results are reasonably in agreement with the observational data,so the system can be used to simulate the urban meteorological environment.Making use of it,the characteristics of the meteorological environment from the urban to urban sub-domain scales,even the among-buildings scale,can be recognized.As long as the urban planning scheme is given,the corresponding simulated results can be obtained so as to meet the need of optimizing urban planning.

  12. Investigating the Impact on Modeled Ozone Concentrations Using Meteorological Fields From WRF With and Updated Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation Approach”

    Science.gov (United States)

    The four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) technique in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model has recently undergone an important update from the original version. Previous evaluation results have demonstrated that the updated FDDA approach in WRF pr...

  13. MeteoCrop DB: an agro-meteorological database coupled with crop models for studying climate change impacts on rice in Japan

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    KUWAGATA, Tsuneo; YOSHIMOTO, Mayumi; ISHIGOOKA, Yasushi; HASEGAWA, Toshihiro; UTSUMI, Misako; NISHIMORI, Motoki; MASAKI, Yoshimitsu; SAITO, Osamu

    2011-01-01

    An agro-meteorological database coupled with crop models (MeteoCrop DB) has been developed for studying the impacts of climate change on rice (Oryza sativa L.) in Japan (http://MeteoCrop.dc.affrc.go.jp...

  14. Analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft exhaust dispersion and deposition using a Lagrangian particle model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pecorari, Eliana; Mantovani, Alice; Franceschini, Chiara; Bassano, Davide; Palmeri, Luca; Rampazzo, Giancarlo

    2016-01-15

    The risk of air quality degradation is of considerable concern particularly for those airports that are located near urban areas. The ability to quantitatively predict the effects of air pollutants originated by airport operations is important for assessing air quality and the related impacts on human health. Current emission regulations have focused on local air quality in the proximity of airports. However, an integrated study should consider the effects of meteorological events, at both regional and local level, that can affect the dispersion and the deposition of exhausts. Rigorous scientific studies and extensive experimental data could contribute to the analysis of the impacts of airports expansion plans. This paper is focused on the analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft emission for the Marco Polo Airport in Venice. This is the most important international airport in the eastern part of the Po' Valley, one of the most polluted area in Europe. Air pollution is exacerbated by meteorology that is a combination of large and local scale effects that do not allow significant dispersion. Moreover, the airport is located near Venice, a city of noteworthy cultural and architectural relevance, and nearby the lagoon that hosts several areas of outstanding ecological importance at European level (Natura 2000 sites). Dispersion and deposit of the main aircraft exhausts (NOx, HC and CO) have been evaluated by using a Lagrangian particle model. Spatial and temporal aircraft exhaust dispersion has been analyzed for LTO cycle. Aircraft taxiing resulted to be the most impacting aircraft operation especially for the airport working area and its surroundings, however occasionally peaks may be observed even at high altitudes when cruise mode starts. Mixing height can affect concentrations more significantly than the concentrations in the exhausts themselves. An increase of HC and CO concentrations (15-50%) has been observed during specific meteorological events.

  15. NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Local Model Runs in the Environmental Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Carcione, Brian; Wood, Lance; Maloney, Joseph; Estupinan, Jeral; Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Blottman, Peter; Rozumalski, Robert A.

    2011-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed several products for its National Weather Service (NWS) partners that can be used to initialize local model runs within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Environmental Modeling System (EMS). These real-time datasets consist of surface-based information updated at least once per day, and produced in a composite or gridded product that is easily incorporated into the WRF EMS. The primary goal for making these NASA datasets available to the WRF EMS community is to provide timely and high-quality information at a spatial resolution comparable to that used in the local model configurations (i.e., convection-allowing scales). The current suite of SPoRT products supported in the WRF EMS include a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) composite, a Great Lakes sea-ice extent, a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composite, and Land Information System (LIS) gridded output. The SPoRT SST composite is a blend of primarily the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) infrared and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System data for non-precipitation coverage over the oceans at 2-km resolution. The composite includes a special lake surface temperature analysis over the Great Lakes using contributions from the Remote Sensing Systems temperature data. The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Ice Percentage product is used to create a sea-ice mask in the SPoRT SST composite. The sea-ice mask is produced daily (in-season) at 1.8-km resolution and identifies ice percentage from 0 100% in 10% increments, with values above 90% flagged as ice.

  16. Repo Runs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martin, A.; Skeie, D.; von Thadden, E.L.

    2010-01-01

    This paper develops a model of financial institutions that borrow short- term and invest into long-term marketable assets. Because these financial intermediaries perform maturity transformation, they are subject to runs. We endogenize the profits of the intermediary and derive distinct liquidity and

  17. Analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft exhaust dispersion and deposition using a Lagrangian particle model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pecorari, Eliana, E-mail: eliana.pecorari@unive.it [Department of Environmental Science, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Calle Larga Santa Marta 2137, Dorsoduro, 30123 Venezia (Italy); Mantovani, Alice [OSMOTECH S.r.l., via Francesco Sforza, 15, 20122 Milano (Italy); Franceschini, Chiara [Department of Environmental Science, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Calle Larga Santa Marta 2137, Dorsoduro, 30123 Venezia (Italy); Bassano, Davide [SAVE S.p.A., Marco Polo Venice airport viale G. Galilei 30/1, 30173 Tessera-Venezia (Italy); Palmeri, Luca [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Padova, v. Marzolo 9, 35131 Padova (Italy); Rampazzo, Giancarlo [Department of Environmental Science, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Calle Larga Santa Marta 2137, Dorsoduro, 30123 Venezia (Italy)

    2016-01-15

    The risk of air quality degradation is of considerable concern particularly for those airports that are located near urban areas. The ability to quantitatively predict the effects of air pollutants originated by airport operations is important for assessing air quality and the related impacts on human health. Current emission regulations have focused on local air quality in the proximity of airports. However, an integrated study should consider the effects of meteorological events, at both regional and local level, that can affect the dispersion and the deposition of exhausts. Rigorous scientific studies and extensive experimental data could contribute to the analysis of the impacts of airports expansion plans. This paper is focused on the analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft emission for the Marco Polo Airport in Venice. This is the most important international airport in the eastern part of the Po’ Valley, one of the most polluted area in Europe. Air pollution is exacerbated by meteorology that is a combination of large and local scale effects that do not allow significant dispersion. Moreover, the airport is located near Venice, a city of noteworthy cultural and architectural relevance, and nearby the lagoon that hosts several areas of outstanding ecological importance at European level (Natura 2000 sites). Dispersion and deposit of the main aircraft exhausts (NOx, HC and CO) have been evaluated by using a Lagrangian particle model. Spatial and temporal aircraft exhaust dispersion has been analyzed for LTO cycle. Aircraft taxiing resulted to be the most impacting aircraft operation especially for the airport working area and its surroundings, however occasionally peaks may be observed even at high altitudes when cruise mode starts. Mixing height can affect concentrations more significantly than the concentrations in the exhausts themselves. An increase of HC and CO concentrations (15–50%) has been observed during specific meteorological events

  18. METRODOS: Meteorological preprocessor chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Astrup, P.; Mikkelsen, T.; Deme, S.

    2001-01-01

    The METRODOS meteorological preprocessor chain combines measured tower data and coarse grid numerical weather prediction (NWP) data with local scale flow models and similarity scaling to give high resolution approximations of the meteorological situation. Based on available wind velocity...... and direction measurements/NWP predictions, the LINCOM or the MCF flow model determines the wind field on a 1/2 to 1 km grid over the area of interest, taking the influence of orography and mixed roughness into consideration. For each grid point the obtained wind and the most appropriate - normally the nearest...... - heat flux related measurement, e.g. a temperature gradient, are used to give local values of friction velocity and Monin-Obukhov length plus an estimate of the mixing height. The METRODOS meteorological preprocessor chain is an integral part of the RODOS - Real Time On Line Decision Support - program...

  19. Anticipating the severity of the fire season in Northern Portugal using statistical models based on meteorological indices of fire danger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, Sílvia A.; DaCamara, Carlos C.; Turkman, Kamil F.; Ermida, Sofia L.; Calado, Teresa J.

    2017-04-01

    Like in other regions of Mediterranean Europe, climate and weather are major drivers of fire activity in Portugal. The aim of the present study is to assess the role played by meteorological factors on inter-annual variability of burned area over a region of Portugal characterized by large fire activity. Monthly cumulated values of burned area in August are obtained from the fire database of ICNF, the Portuguese authority for forests. The role of meteorological factors is characterized by means of Daily Severity Rating, DSR, an index of meteorological fire danger, which is derived from meteorological fields as obtained from ECMWF Interim Reanalysis. The study area is characterized by the predominance of forest, with high percentages of maritime pine and eucalyptus, two species with high flammability in summer. The time series of recorded burned area in August during 1980-2011 is highly correlated (correlation coefficient of 0.93) with the one for whole Portugal. First, a normal distribution model is fitted to the 32-year sample of decimal logarithms of monthly burned area. The model is improved by introducing two covariates:(1) the top-down meteorological factor (DSRtd) which consists of daily cumulated values of DSR since April 1 to July 31 and may be viewed as the cumulated stress on vegetation due to meteorological conditions during the pre-fire season; (2) the bottom-up factor (DSRbu) which consists of the square root of the mean of the squared daily deviations (restricted to days with positive departures of DSR from the corresponding long term mean) and may be viewed as the contribution of days characterized by extreme weather conditions favoring the onset and spreading of wildfires. Three different statistical models are then developed: the "climate anomaly" model, using DSRtd as covariate, the "weather anomaly", using DSRbu as covariate, and the "combined" model using both variables as covariates. These models are used to define background fire danger, fire

  20. Running Away

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Emergency Room? What Happens in the Operating Room? Running Away KidsHealth > For Kids > Running Away Print A ... life on the streets. continue The Reality of Running Away When you think about running away, you ...

  1. Effects of Yaw Error on Wind Turbine Running Characteristics Based on the Equivalent Wind Speed Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuting Wan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Natural wind is stochastic, being characterized by its speed and direction which change randomly and frequently. Because of the certain lag in control systems and the yaw body itself, wind turbines cannot be accurately aligned toward the wind direction when the wind speed and wind direction change frequently. Thus, wind turbines often suffer from a series of engineering issues during operation, including frequent yaw, vibration overruns and downtime. This paper aims to study the effects of yaw error on wind turbine running characteristics at different wind speeds and control stages by establishing a wind turbine model, yaw error model and the equivalent wind speed model that includes the wind shear and tower shadow effects. Formulas for the relevant effect coefficients Tc, Sc and Pc were derived. The simulation results indicate that the effects of the aerodynamic torque, rotor speed and power output due to yaw error at different running stages are different and that the effect rules for each coefficient are not identical when the yaw error varies. These results may provide theoretical support for optimizing the yaw control strategies for each stage to increase the running stability of wind turbines and the utilization rate of wind energy.

  2. Changes in spring-mass model parameters and energy cost during track running to exhaustion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slawinski, Jean; Heubert, Richard; Quievre, Jacques; Billat, Véronique; Hanon, Christine; Hannon, Christine

    2008-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine whether exhaustion modifies the stiffness characteristics, as defined in the spring-mass model, during track running. We also investigated whether stiffer runners are also the most economical. Nine well-trained runners performed an exhaustive exercise over 2000 meters on an indoor track. This exhaustive exercise was preceded by a warm-up and was followed by an active recovery. Throughout all the exercises, the energy cost of running (Cr) was measured. Vertical and leg stiffness was measured with a force plate (Kvert and Kleg, respectively) integrated into the track. The results show that Cr increases significantly after the 2000-meter run (0.192 +/- 0.006 to 0.217 +/- 0.013 mL x kg(-1) x m(-1)). However, Kvert and Kleg remained constant (32.52 +/- 6.42 to 32.59 +/- 5.48 and 11.12 +/- 2.76 to 11.14 +/- 2.48 kN.m, respectively). An inverse correlation was observed between Cr and Kleg, but only during the 2000-meter exercise (r = -0.67; P < or = 0.05). During the warm-up or the recovery, Cr and Kleg, were not correlated (r = 0.354; P = 0.82 and r = 0.21; P = 0.59, respectively). On track, exhaustion induced by a 2000-meter run has no effect on Kleg or Kvert. The inverse correlation was only observed between Cr and Kleg during the 2000-meter run and not before or after the exercise, suggesting that the stiffness of the runner may be not associated with the Cr.

  3. Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB/BSC-ASH-v1.0: A novel multiscale meteorological model for operational forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marti, Alejandro; Folch, Arnau; Jorba, Oriol; Janjic, Zavisa

    2016-04-01

    Volcanic ash forecast became a research priority and a social concern as a consequence of the severe air-traffic disruptions caused by the eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland, 2010) and Cordón Caulle (Chile, 2011) volcanoes. Significant progress has taken place in the aftermath of these dramatic events to improve the accuracy of Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersal (VATD) models and lessen its associated uncertainties. Various levels of uncertainties affect both the quantification of the source term and the driving meteorological inputs. Substantial research is being performed to reduce and quantify epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties affecting the source term. However, uncertainties arising from the driving NWPMs and its coupling offline with the VATDMs have received little attention, even if the experience from other communities (e.g. air quality) highlights the importance of coupling online dispersal and meteorological modeling. Consequently, the need for integrated predictions to represent these two-way feedback effects of the volcanic pollutants on local-scale meteorology is timely. The aim of this talk is to present the NMMB/BSC-ASH, a new on-line multi-scale meteorological model to simulate the emission, transport and deposition of tephra particles released from volcanic eruptions. The model builds on the NMMB/BSC Chemical Transport Model (NMMB/BSC-CTM), which we have modified to account for the specifics of volcanic particles. The final objective in developing the NMMB/BSC-ASH model is two-fold. On one hand, at a research level, we aim at studying the differences between the online/offline approaches and quantify the two-way feedback effect of dense volcanic ash clouds on the radiative budget and regional meteorology. On the other hand, at an operational level, the low computational cost of the NMMB dynamic core suggests that NMMB/BSC-ASH could be applied in a future for more accurate online operational forecasting of volcanic ash clouds.

  4. Strange matter and strange stars in a thermodynamically self-consistent perturbation model with running coupling and running strange quark mass

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, J F; Liu, F; Hou, D F; Chen, L W

    2015-01-01

    A quark model with running coupling and running strange quark mass, which is thermodynamically self-consistent at both high and lower densities, is presented and applied to study properties of strange quark matter and structure of compact stars. An additional term to the thermodynamic potential density is determined by meeting the fundamental differential equation of thermodynamics. It plays an important role in comparatively lower density and ignorable at extremely high density, acting as a chemical-potential dependent bag constant. In this thermodynamically enhanced perturbative QCD model, strange quark matter still has the possibility of being absolutely stable, while the pure quark star has a sharp surface with a maximum mass as large as about 2 times the solar mass and a maximum radius of about 11 kilometers.

  5. Impacts of the driver's bounded rationality on the traffic running cost under the car-following model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Tie-Qiao; Luo, Xiao-Feng; Liu, Kai

    2016-09-01

    The driver's bounded rationality has significant influences on the micro driving behavior and researchers proposed some traffic flow models with the driver's bounded rationality. However, little effort has been made to explore the effects of the driver's bounded rationality on the trip cost. In this paper, we use our recently proposed car-following model to study the effects of the driver's bounded rationality on his running cost and the system's total cost under three traffic running costs. The numerical results show that considering the driver's bounded rationality will enhance his each running cost and the system's total cost under the three traffic running costs.

  6. AschFlow - A dynamic landslide run-out model for medium scale hazard analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luna, Byron Quan; Blahut, Jan; van Asch, Theo; van Westen, Cees; Kappes, Melanie

    2015-04-01

    Landslides and debris flow hazard assessments require a scale-dependent analysis in order to mitigate damage and other negative consequences at the respective scales of occurrence. Medium or large scale landslide run-out modelling for many possible landslide initiation areas has been a cumbersome task in the past. This arises from the difficulty to precisely define the location and volume of the released mass and from the inability of the run-out models to compute the displacement with a large amount of individual initiation areas (computational exhaustive). Most of the existing physically based run-out models have complications in handling such situations and therefore empirical methods have been used as a practical mean to predict landslides mobility at a medium scale (1:10,000 to 1:50,000). In this context, a simple medium scale numerical model for rapid mass movements in urban and mountainous areas was developed. The deterministic nature of the approach makes it possible to calculate the velocity, height and increase in mass by erosion, resulting in the estimation of various forms of impacts exerted by debris flows at the medium scale The established and implemented model ("AschFlow") is a 2-D one-phase continuum model that simulates, the entrainment, spreading and deposition process of a landslide or debris flow at a medium scale. The flow is thus treated as a single phase material, whose behavior is controlled by rheology (e.g. Voellmy or Bingham). The developed regional model "AschFlow" was applied and evaluated in well documented areas with known past debris flow events.

  7. Results of the meteorological model WRF-ARW over Catalonia, using different parameterizations of convection and cloud microphysics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Mercader

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The meteorological model WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting - Advanced Research WRF is a new generation model that has a worldwide growing community of users. In the framework of a project that studies the feasibility of implementing it operationally at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia, a verification of the forecasts produced by the model in several cases of precipitation observed over Catalonia has been carried out. Indeed, given the importance of precipitation forecasts in this area, one of the main objectives was to study the sensitivity of the model in different configurations of its parameterizations of convection and cloud microphysics. In this paper, we present the results of this verification for two domains, a 36-km grid size and one of 12 km grid size, unidirectionally nested to the previous one. In the external domain, the evaluation was based on the analysis of the main statistical parameters (ME and RMSE for temperature, relative humidity, geopotential and wind, and it has been determined that the combination using the Kain-Fritsch convective scheme with the WSM5 microphysical scheme has provided the best results. Then, with this configuration set for the external domain, some forecasts at the nested domain have been done, by combining different convection and cloud microphysics schemes, leading to the conclusion that the most accurate configuration is the one combining the convective parameterization of Kain-Fritsch and the Thompson microphysics scheme.

  8. CROP YIELD AND CO2 FIXATION MONITORING IN ASIA USING A PHOTOSYNTHETICSTERILITY MODEL WITH SATELLITES AND METEOROLOGICAL DATA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daijiro Kaneko [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Matsue National College of Technology, Matsue (Japan); Toshiro Kumakura [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nagaoka University of Technology, Nagaoka (Japan); Peng Yang [Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing and Digital Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing (China)

    2008-09-30

    This study is intended to develop a model for estimating carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) fixation in the carbon cycle and for monitoring grain yields using a photosynthetic-sterility model, which integrates solar radiation and air temperature effects on photosynthesis, along with grain-filling from heading to ripening. Grain production monitoring would support orderly crisis management to maintain food security in Asia, which is facing climate fluctuation through this century of global warming. The author improved a photosynthesis-and-sterility model to compute both the crop yield and crop situation index CSI, which gives a percentage of rice yields compared to normal annual production. The model calculates photosynthesis rates including biomass effects, lowtemperature sterility, and high-temperature injury by incorporating solar radiation, effective air temperature, the normalized difference vegetation index NDVI, and the effect of temperature on photosynthesis by grain plant leaves. A decision-tree method classifies the distribution of crop fields in Asia using MODIS fundamental landcover and SPOT VEGETATION data, which include the Normalized Vegetation index (NDVI) and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI). This study provides daily distributions of the photosynthesis rate, which is the CO2 fixation in Asian areas combined with the land-cover distribution, the Japanese geostationary meteorological satellite (GMS), and meteorological re-analysis data by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The method is based on routine observation data, enabling automated monitoring of crop yields.

  9. Reduction of thermal models of buildings: improvement of techniques using meteorological influence models; Reduction de modeles thermiques de batiments: amelioration des techniques par modelisation des sollicitations meteorologiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dautin, S.

    1997-04-01

    This work concerns the modeling of thermal phenomena inside buildings for the evaluation of energy exploitation costs of thermal installations and for the modeling of thermal and aeraulic transient phenomena. This thesis comprises 7 chapters dealing with: (1) the thermal phenomena inside buildings and the CLIM2000 calculation code, (2) the ETNA and GENEC experimental cells and their modeling, (3) the techniques of model reduction tested (Marshall`s truncature, Michailesco aggregation method and Moore truncature) with their algorithms and their encoding in the MATRED software, (4) the application of model reduction methods to the GENEC and ETNA cells and to a medium size dual-zone building, (5) the modeling of meteorological influences classically applied to buildings (external temperature and solar flux), (6) the analytical expression of these modeled meteorological influences. The last chapter presents the results of these improved methods on the GENEC and ETNA cells and on a lower inertia building. These new methods are compared to classical methods. (J.S.) 69 refs.

  10. Using an integrated hydrological model to estimate the usefulness of meteorological drought indices in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Gunten, Diane; Wöhling, Thomas; Haslauer, Claus P.; Merchán, Daniel; Causapé, Jesus; Cirpka, Olaf A.

    2016-10-01

    Droughts are serious natural hazards, especially in semi-arid regions. They are also difficult to characterize. Various summary metrics representing the dryness level, denoted drought indices, have been developed to quantify droughts. They typically lump meteorological variables and can thus directly be computed from the outputs of regional climate models in climate-change assessments. While it is generally accepted that drought risks in semi-arid climates will increase in the future, quantifying this increase using climate model outputs is a complex process that depends on the choice and the accuracy of the drought indices, among other factors. In this study, we compare seven meteorological drought indices that are commonly used to predict future droughts. Our goal is to assess the reliability of these indices to predict hydrological impacts of droughts under changing climatic conditions at the annual timescale. We simulate the hydrological responses of a small catchment in northern Spain to droughts in present and future climate, using an integrated hydrological model calibrated for different irrigation scenarios. We compute the correlation of meteorological drought indices with the simulated hydrological time series (discharge, groundwater levels, and water deficit) and compare changes in the relationships between hydrological variables and drought indices. While correlation coefficients linked with a specific drought index are similar for all tested land uses and climates, the relationship between drought indices and hydrological variables often differs between present and future climate. Drought indices based solely on precipitation often underestimate the hydrological impacts of future droughts, while drought indices that additionally include potential evapotranspiration sometimes overestimate the drought effects. In this study, the drought indices with the smallest bias were the rainfall anomaly index, the reconnaissance drought index, and the standardized

  11. Exploiting CMS data popularity to model the evolution of data management for Run-2 and beyond

    CERN Document Server

    Bonacorsi, D; Giordano, D; Girone, M; Neri, M; Magini, N; Kuznetsov, V; Wildish, T

    2015-01-01

    During the LHC Run-1 data taking, all experiments collected large data volumes from proton-proton and heavy-ion collisions. The collisions data, together with massive volumes of simulated data, were replicated in multiple copies, transferred among various Tier levels, transformed/slimmed in format/content. These data were then accessed (both locally and remotely) by large groups of distributed analysis communities exploiting the WorldWide LHC Computing Grid infrastructure and services. While efficient data placement strategies - together with optimal data redistribution and deletions on demand - have become the core of static versus dynamic data management projects, little effort has so far been invested in understanding the detailed data-access patterns which surfaced in Run-1. These patterns, if understood, can be used as input to simulation of computing models at the LHC, to optimise existing systems by tuning their behaviour, and to explore next-generation CPU/storage/network co-scheduling solutions. This...

  12. Research and Application of Fire Forecasting Model for Electric Transmission Lines Incorporating Meteorological Data and Human Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiazheng Lu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, there is a rise in frequency of fires which pose a serious threat to the safety operation of electric transmission lines. Several ultrahigh voltage (UHV electric transmission lines, including Fufeng line, Jinsu line, Longzheng line, and Changnan line, showed many times tripping or bipolar latching caused by fire disasters. Fire disasters have tended to be the biggest threat to the safety operation of electric transmission lines and even can cause power grid collapse in some severe situations. Researchers have made much research on fires forecasting. However, these studies are mainly concentrated on predicting fires based on measured or forecasting meteorological data and do not take into account the effect of human activities. In fact, fire disasters have a very close relationship with human activities. In our research, a fire prediction model is proposed incorporating meteorological data as well as human activities. And this model is applied in Hunan province and Anhui province, which seriously suffer from fire disasters. The results show that the model has good prediction precision and can be a powerful tool for practical application.

  13. Kinetic study of run-away burn in ICF capsule using a quasi-1D model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chengkun; Molvig, K.; Albright, B. J.; Dodd, E. S.; Hoffman, N. M.; Vold, E. L.; Kagan, G.

    2016-10-01

    The effect of reduced fusion reactivity resulting from the loss of fuel ions in the Gamow peak in the ignition, run-away burn and disassembly stages of an inertial confinement fusion D-T capsule is investigated with a quasi-1D hybrid model that includes kinetic ions, fluid electrons and Planckian radiation photons. The fuel ion loss through the Knudsen effect at the fuel-pusher interface is accounted for by a local-loss model developed in Molvig et al.. The tail refilling and relaxation of the fuel ion distribution are evolved with a nonlinear Fokker-Planck solver. The Krokhin & Rozanov model is used for the finite alpha range beyond the fuel region, while alpha heating to the fuel ions and the fluid electrons is modeled kinetically. For an energetic pusher (40kJ), the simulation shows that the reduced fusion reactivity can lead to substantially lower ion temperature during run-away burn, while the final yield decreases more modestly. Possible improvements to the present model, including the non-Planckian radiation emission and alpha-driven fuel disassembly, are discussed. Work performed under the auspices of the U.S. DOE by the LANS, LLC, Los Alamos National Laboratory under Contract No. DE-AC52-06NA25396. Work supported by the ASC TBI project at LANL.

  14. Large Scale Model Test Investigation on Wave Run-Up in Irregular Waves at Slender Piles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramirez, Jorge Robert Rodriguez; Frigaard, Peter; Andersen, Thomas Lykke

    2013-01-01

    from high speed video recordings. Based on the measured run-up heights different types of prediction formulae for run-up in irregular waves were evaluated. In conclusion scale effects on run-up levels seems small except for differences in spray. However, run-up of individual waves is difficult...

  15. Modeling and simulation of Cobot based on double over-running clutches

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DONG Yu-hong; ZHANG Li-xun

    2008-01-01

    In order to analyze characteristics of Cobot cooperation with a human in a shared workspacce, the model of a non-holonormic constraint joint mechanism and its control model were constructed based on double o-ver-running clutches. The simulation analysis was carried out and it validated passive and constraint features of the joint mechanism. In terms of Cobot components, the control model of Cobot following a desired trajectory was built up. The simulation studies illustrate that the Cobot can track a desired trajectory and possess passive and constraint features; a human supplies operation force that makes Cobot move, and a computer system con-trois its motion trajectory. So it can meet the requirements of Cobot collaboration with an operator. The Cobot model can be used in applications of material moving, parts assembly and some situations requiring man-ma-chine cooperation and so on.

  16. A comparative study of the response of modeled non-drizzling stratocumulus to meteorological and aerosol perturbations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Petters

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The impact of changes in aerosol and cloud droplet concentration (Na and Nd on the radiative forcing of stratocumulus-topped boundary layers (STBLs has been widely studied. How these impacts compare to those due to variations in meteorological context has not been investigated in a systematic fashion for non-drizzling overcast stratocumulus. In this study we examine the impact of observed variations in meteorological context and aerosol state on daytime, non-drizzling overcast stratiform evolution, and determine how resulting changes in cloud properties compare. Using large-eddy simulation (LES we create a model base case of daytime southeast Pacific coastal stratocumulus, spanning a portion of the diurnal cycle (early morning to near noon and constrained by observations taken during the VOCALS (VAMOS Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Study field campaign. We perturb aerosol and meteorological properties around this base case to investigate the stratocumulus response. We determine perturbations in the cloud top jumps in potential temperature θ and total water mixing ratio qt from ECMWF Re-analysis Interim data, and use a set of Nd values spanning the observable range. To determine the cloud response to these meteorological and aerosol perturbations, we compute changes in liquid water path (LWP, bulk optical depth (τ and cloud radiative forcing (CRF. We find that realistic variations in the thermodynamic jump properties can elicit a response in the cloud properties of τ and shortwave (SW CRF that are on the same order of magnitude as the response found due to realistic changes in aerosol state (i.e Nd. In response to increases in Nd, the cloud layer in the base case thinned due to increases in evaporative cooling and entrainment rate. This cloud thinning somewhat mitigates the increase in τ resulting from increases in Nd. On the other hand, variations in θ and qt jumps did not substantially modify Nd. The cloud layer thickens in response to an increase

  17. Hydrologic and water-quality characterization and modeling of the Chenoweth Run basin, Jefferson County, Kentucky

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Gary R.; Zarriello, Phillip J.; Shipp, Allison A.

    2001-01-01

    Rainfall, streamflow, and water-quality data collected in the Chenoweth Run Basin during February 1996?January 1998, in combination with the available historical sampling data, were used to characterize hydrologic conditions and to develop and calibrate a Hydrological Simulation Program?Fortran (HSPF) model for continuous simulation of rainfall, streamflow, suspended-sediment, and total-orthophosphate (TPO4) transport relations. Study results provide an improved understanding of basin hydrology and a hydrologic-modeling framework with analytical tools for use in comprehensive waterresource planning and management. Chenoweth Run Basin, encompassing 16.5 mi2 in suburban eastern Jefferson County, Kentucky, contains expanding urban development, particularly in the upper third of the basin. Historical water-quality problems have interfered with designated aquatic-life and recreation uses in the stream main channel (approximately 9 mi in length) and have been attributed to organic enrichment, nutrients, metals, and pathogens in urban runoff and wastewater inflows. Hydrologic conditions in Jefferson County are highly varied. In the Chenoweth Run Basin, as in much of the eastern third of the county, relief is moderately sloping to steep. Also, internal drainage in pervious areas is impeded by the shallow, fine-textured subsoils that contain abundant silts and clays. Thus, much of the precipitation here tends to move rapidly as overland flow and (or) shallow subsurface flow (interflow) to the stream channels. Data were collected at two streamflowgaging stations, one rain gage, and four waterquality- sampling sites in the basin. Precipitation, streamflow, and, consequently, constituent loads were above normal during the data-collection period of this study. Nonpoint sources contributed the largest portion of the sediment loads. However, the three wastewatertreatment plants (WWTP?s) were the source of the majority of estimated total phosphorus (TP) and TPO4 transport

  18. Dilepton constraints in the Inert Doublet Model from Run 1 of the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Belanger, G; Goudelis, A; Herrmann, B; Kraml, S; Sengupta, D

    2015-01-01

    Searches in final states with two leptons plus missing transverse energy, targeting supersymmetric particles or invisible decays of the Higgs boson, were performed during Run 1 of the LHC. Recasting the results of these analyses in the context of the Inert Doublet Model (IDM) using MadAnalysis 5, we show that they provide constraints on inert scalars that significantly extend previous limits from LEP. Moreover, these LHC constraints allow to test the IDM in the limit of very small Higgs-inert scalar coupling, where the constraints from direct detection of dark matter and the invisible Higgs width vanish.

  19. 路面气象数值预报模型及性能检验%Development and Verification of a Numerical Forecast Model for Road Meteorological Services

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孟春雷; 张朝林

    2012-01-01

    该文基于通用陆面模式(CoLM)发展了精细化路面参数数值预报模型(BJ-ROME).该模型可以预报路面温度、积雪厚度、积冰厚度以及积水厚度.模型不仅考虑了路面的不透水性、相对较低反照率、低热容以及高热导率等特征,还考虑了城市人为热的影响.模型采用北京市气象局快速更新循环预报系统(BJ-RUC)产生的气象强迫场驱动,预报时间跨度为24 h,更新时间为3h.采用北京地区芬兰Vaisala公司路面观测站2009年8月9-24日路面温度及2010年1月3-4日积雪厚度观测结果对模型预报结果进行验证,同时进行了敏感性试验.结果表明:无论是在晴空还是降水的气象条件下,BJ-ROME均能较准确地预报路面温度极值以及日变化.BJ-ROME还可以较准确地模拟积雪厚度的最大值以及随时间变化情况.%Accurate road meteorology forecast and road traffic information are very important to road transportation security. Road surface temperature is a crucial parameter in traffic weather forecast. Now there are three main kinds of road surface parameters forecast models Statistical model. GIS-based model and physical model. Physical model is widely used and it mainly considers the road surface energy balance model and the effect of anthropogenic heat. In 2008, based on the rapid update cycling forecast system (BJ-RUC), the road weather information system is developed and run operationally by the Institute of Urban Meteorology. Since 2007, Beijing Meteorological Bureau has established 18 weather stations along the express way using the apparatus manufactured by ROSA Vaisala in Finland, and established 8 visibility observation stations using the digital visibility sensor. These all make the fine traffic weather forecast and operational run possible. A fine numerical model for urban road surface temperature (RST), snow depth and ice depth prediction (BJ-ROME) is developed based on Common Land Model (CoLM). The model is

  20. Meteorological conditions associated to high sublimation amounts in semiarid high-elevation Andes decrease the performance of empirical melt models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayala, Alvaro; Pellicciotti, Francesca; MacDonell, Shelley; McPhee, James; Burlando, Paolo

    2015-04-01

    Empirical melt (EM) models are often preferred to surface energy balance (SEB) models to calculate melt amounts of snow and ice in hydrological modelling of high-elevation catchments. The most common reasons to support this decision are that, in comparison to SEB models, EM models require lower levels of meteorological data, complexity and computational costs. However, EM models assume that melt can be characterized by means of a few index variables only, and their results strongly depend on the transferability in space and time of the calibrated empirical parameters. In addition, they are intrinsically limited in accounting for specific process components, the complexity of which cannot be easily reconciled with the empirical nature of the model. As an example of an EM model, in this study we use the Enhanced Temperature Index (ETI) model, which calculates melt amounts using air temperature and the shortwave radiation balance as index variables. We evaluate the performance of the ETI model on dry high-elevation sites where sublimation amounts - that are not explicitly accounted for the EM model - represent a relevant percentage of total ablation (1.1 to 8.7%). We analyse a data set of four Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), which were collected during the ablation season 2013-14, at elevations between 3466 and 4775 m asl, on the glaciers El Tapado, San Francisco, Bello and El Yeso, which are located in the semiarid Andes of central Chile. We complement our analysis using data from past studies in Juncal Norte Glacier (Chile) and Haut Glacier d'Arolla (Switzerland), during the ablation seasons 2008-09 and 2006, respectively. We use the results of a SEB model, applied to each study site, along the entire season, to calibrate the ETI model. The ETI model was not designed to calculate sublimation amounts, however, results show that their ability is low also to simulate melt amounts at sites where sublimation represents larger percentages of total ablation. In fact, we

  1. Comparison of a priori calibration models for respiratory inductance plethysmography during running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leutheuser, Heike; Heyde, Christian; Gollhofer, Albert; Eskofier, Bjoern M

    2014-01-01

    Respiratory inductive plethysmography (RIP) has been introduced as an alternative for measuring ventilation by means of body surface displacement (diameter changes in rib cage and abdomen). Using a posteriori calibration, it has been shown that RIP may provide accurate measurements for ventilatory tidal volume under exercise conditions. Methods for a priori calibration would facilitate the application of RIP. Currently, to the best knowledge of the authors, none of the existing ambulant procedures for RIP calibration can be used a priori for valid subsequent measurements of ventilatory volume under exercise conditions. The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a priori calibration algorithms for ambulant application of RIP data recorded in running exercise. We calculated Volume Motion Coefficients (VMCs) using seven different models on resting data and compared the root mean squared error (RMSE) of each model applied on running data. Least squares approximation (LSQ) without offset of a two-degree-of-freedom model achieved the lowest RMSE value. In this work, we showed that a priori calibration of RIP exercise data is possible using VMCs calculated from 5 min resting phase where RIP and flowmeter measurements were performed simultaneously. The results demonstrate that RIP has the potential for usage in ambulant applications.

  2. Exploiting CMS data popularity to model the evolution of data management for Run-2 and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonacorsi, D.; Boccali, T.; Giordano, D.; Girone, M.; Neri, M.; Magini, N.; Kuznetsov, V.; Wildish, T.

    2015-12-01

    During the LHC Run-1 data taking, all experiments collected large data volumes from proton-proton and heavy-ion collisions. The collisions data, together with massive volumes of simulated data, were replicated in multiple copies, transferred among various Tier levels, transformed/slimmed in format/content. These data were then accessed (both locally and remotely) by large groups of distributed analysis communities exploiting the WorldWide LHC Computing Grid infrastructure and services. While efficient data placement strategies - together with optimal data redistribution and deletions on demand - have become the core of static versus dynamic data management projects, little effort has so far been invested in understanding the detailed data-access patterns which surfaced in Run-1. These patterns, if understood, can be used as input to simulation of computing models at the LHC, to optimise existing systems by tuning their behaviour, and to explore next-generation CPU/storage/network co-scheduling solutions. This is of great importance, given that the scale of the computing problem will increase far faster than the resources available to the experiments, for Run-2 and beyond. Studying data-access patterns involves the validation of the quality of the monitoring data collected on the “popularity of each dataset, the analysis of the frequency and pattern of accesses to different datasets by analysis end-users, the exploration of different views of the popularity data (by physics activity, by region, by data type), the study of the evolution of Run-1 data exploitation over time, the evaluation of the impact of different data placement and distribution choices on the available network and storage resources and their impact on the computing operations. This work presents some insights from studies on the popularity data from the CMS experiment. We present the properties of a range of physics analysis activities as seen by the data popularity, and make recommendations for

  3. Building and Running the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Model in a Quality Environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D.A. Kalinich; K.P. Lee; J.A. McNeish

    2005-01-09

    A Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) model has been developed to support the Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for the Yucca Mountain High-Level Waste Repository. The TSPA model forecasts repository performance over a 20,000-year simulation period. It has a high degree of complexity due to the complexity of its underlying process and abstraction models. This is reflected in the size of the model (a 27,000 element GoldSim file), its use of dynamic-linked libraries (14 DLLs), the number and size of its input files (659 files totaling 4.7 GB), and the number of model input parameters (2541 input database entries). TSPA model development and subsequent simulations with the final version of the model were performed to a set of Quality Assurance (QA) procedures. Due to the complexity of the model, comments on previous TSPAs, and the number of analysts involved (22 analysts in seven cities across four time zones), additional controls for the entire life-cycle of the TSPA model, including management, physical, model change, and input controls were developed and documented. These controls did not replace the QA. procedures, rather they provided guidance for implementing the requirements of the QA procedures with the specific intent of ensuring that the model development process and the simulations performed with the final version of the model had sufficient checking, traceability, and transparency. Management controls were developed to ensure that only management-approved changes were implemented into the TSPA model and that only management-approved model runs were performed. Physical controls were developed to track the use of prototype software and preliminary input files, and to ensure that only qualified software and inputs were used in the final version of the TSPA model. In addition, a system was developed to name, file, and track development versions of the TSPA model as well as simulations performed with the final version of the model.

  4. Hubble expansion and structure formation in the "running FLRW model" of the cosmic evolution

    CERN Document Server

    Grande, Javier; Basilakos, Spyros; Plionis, Manolis

    2011-01-01

    A new class of FLRW cosmological models with time-evolving fundamental parameters should emerge naturally from a description of the expansion of the universe based on the first principles of quantum field theory and string theory. Within this general paradigm, one expects that both the gravitational Newton's coupling, G, and the cosmological term, Lambda, should not be strictly constant but appear rather as smooth functions of the Hubble rate. This scenario ("running FLRW model") predicts, in a natural way, the existence of dynamical dark energy without invoking the participation of extraneous scalar fields. In this paper, we perform a detailed study of these models in the light of the latest cosmological data, which serves to illustrate the phenomenological viability of the new dark energy paradigm as a serious alternative to the traditional scalar field approaches. By performing a joint likelihood analysis of the recent SNIa data, the CMB shift parameter, and the BAOs traced by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey,...

  5. Population growth and economic development in the very long run: a simulation model of three revolutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinmann, G; Komlos, J

    1988-08-01

    The authors propose an economic model capable of simulating the 4 main historical stages of civilization: hunting, agricultural, industrial, and postindustrial. An output-maximizing society to respond to changes in factor endowments by switching technologies. Changes in factor proportions arise through population growth and capital accumulation. A slow rate of exogenous technical process is assumed. The model synthesizes Malthusian and Boserupian notions of the effect of population growth on per capita output. Initially the capital-diluting effect of population growth dominates. As population density increases, however, and a threshold is reached, the Boserupian effect becomes crucial, and a technological revolution occurs. The cycle is thereafter repeated. After the second economic revolution, however, the Malthusian constraint dissolves permanently, as population growth can continue without being constrained by diminishing returns to labor. By synthesizing Malthusian and Boserupian notions, the model is able to capture the salient features of economic development in the very long run.

  6. Temporal disaggregation of daily meteorological grid data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vormoor, K.; Skaugen, T.

    2012-04-01

    For operational flood forecasting, the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Administration (NVE) applies the conceptual HBV rainfall-runoff model for 117 catchments. The hydrological models are calibrated and run using an extensive meteorological grid data set providing daily temperature and precipitation data back to 1957 for entire Norway at 1x1 km grid resolution (seNorge grids). The daily temporal resolution is dictated by the resolution of historical meteorological data. However, since meteorological forecasts and runoff observations are also available at a much finer than a daily time-resolution (e.g. 6 hourly), and many hydrological extreme events happens at a temporal scale of less than daily, it is important to try to establish a historical dataset of meteorological input at a finer corresponding temporal resolution. We present a simple approach for the temporal disaggregation of the daily meteorological seNorge grids into 6-hour values by consulting a HIRLAM hindcast grid data series with an hourly time resolution and a 10x10 km grid resolution. The temporal patterns of the hindcast series are used to disaggregate the daily interpolated observations from the seNorge grids. In this way, we produce a historical grid dataset from 1958-2010 with 6-hourly temperature and precipitation for entire Norway on a 1x1 km grid resolution. For validation and to see if additional information is gained, the disaggregated data is compared with observed values from selected meteorological stations. In addition, the disaggregated data is evaluated against daily data, simply split into four fractions. The validation results indicate that additional information is indeed gained and point out the benefit of disaggregated data compared to daily data split into four. With regard to temperature, the disaggregated values show very low deviations (MAE, RMSE), and are highly correlated with observed values. Regarding precipitation, the disaggregated data shows cumulative

  7. Changes in spring-mass model characteristics during repeated running sprints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girard, Olivier; Micallef, Jean-Paul; Millet, Grégoire P

    2011-01-01

    This study investigated fatigue-induced changes in spring-mass model characteristics during repeated running sprints. Sixteen active subjects performed 12 × 40 m sprints interspersed with 30 s of passive recovery. Vertical and anterior-posterior ground reaction forces were measured at 5-10 m and 30-35 m and used to determine spring-mass model characteristics. Contact (P Stride frequency (P  0.05) increased with time. As a result, vertical stiffness decreased (P  0.05). Changes in vertical stiffness were correlated (r > 0.7; P stride frequency. When compared to 5-10 m, most of ground reaction force-related parameters were higher (P stride frequency, vertical and leg stiffness were lower (P run-based sprints are repeated, which alters impact parameters. Maintaining faster stride frequencies through retaining higher vertical stiffness is a prerequisite to improve performance during repeated sprinting.

  8. A Mesoscale Meteorological Model of Modified Land Cover to the Effect of Urban Heat Island in Jakarta, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yopi Ilhamsyah

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available A mesoscale meteorological model of modified land cover to the effect of urban heat island (UHI in Jakarta was done. Although higher temperature in the city has been generally known, factors and issues that result in the increase of temperature particularly nighttime temperature over the city, however, are not well-understood. Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, is encountering urbanization problems foremost. The increasing demand of housing as well as rapid development of sky crapper building, market places and highway diminishes the vegetation which in turn trap heat in the troposphere throughout the year, particularly during dry season on June-August. The fifth-generation mesoscale meteorological model (MM5 was employed in the study. The model involves medium range forecast planetary boundary layer (MRF PBL scheme and land surface with two following parameters: i.e. roughness length over land and thermal inertia of land. These two parameters are chosen to enhance the characteristics of land surface. The simulation was carried out for 3 days on August 5-7, 2004 during dry season. The results showed that the simulation of surface temperature done by MM5 modified land cover described a good comparison to that of weather observation data. As a result, the effect of UHI was also well-observed during day-time. In addition, MM5 modified land cover simulation also illustrated a well-development of sea-breeze and country-breeze during mid-day and nighttime, respectively. However, long-term simulation is still required. Thus, daily diurnal cycles of air temperature and their differences can be well-observed in detail.

  9. Tsunami generation, propagation, and run-up with a high-order Boussinesq model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuhrman, David R.; Madsen, Per A.

    2009-01-01

    In this work we extend a high-order Boussinesq-type (finite difference) model, capable of simulating waves out to wavenumber times depth kh tsunamis. The extension is straight forward, requiring only...... show that the long-time (fully nonlinear) evolution of waves resulting from an upthrusted bottom can eventually result in true solitary waves, consistent with theoretical predictions. It is stressed, however, that the nonlinearity used far exceeds that typical of geophysical tsunamis in the open ocean....... The Boussinesq-type model is then used to simulate numerous tsunami-type events generated from submerged landslides, in both one and two horizontal dimensions. The results again compare well against previous experiments and/or numerical simulations. The new extension compliments recently developed run...

  10. A two-runners model: optimization of running strategies according to the physiological parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Aftalion, Amandine

    2015-01-01

    In order to describe the velocity and the anaerobic energy of two runners competing against each other for middle-distance races, we present a mathematical model relying on an optimal control problem for a system of ordinary differential equations. The model is based on energy conservation and on Newton's second law: resistive forces, propulsive forces and variations in the maximal oxygen uptake are taken into account. The interaction between the runners provides a minimum for staying one meter behind one's competitor. We perform numerical simulations and show how a runner can win a race against someone stronger by taking advantage of staying behind, or how he can improve his personal record by running behind someone else. Our simulations show when it is the best time to overtake, depending on the difference between the athletes. Finally, we compare our numerical results with real data from the men's 1500 -- m finals of different competitions.

  11. The Trick Simulation Toolkit: A NASA/Opensource Framework for Running Time Based Physics Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penn, John M.

    2016-01-01

    The Trick Simulation Toolkit is a simulation development environment used to create high fidelity training and engineering simulations at the NASA Johnson Space Center and many other NASA facilities. Its purpose is to generate a simulation executable from a collection of user-supplied models and a simulation definition file. For each Trick-based simulation, Trick automatically provides job scheduling, numerical integration, the ability to write and restore human readable checkpoints, data recording, interactive variable manipulation, a run-time interpreter, and many other commonly needed capabilities. This allows simulation developers to concentrate on their domain expertise and the algorithms and equations of their models. Also included in Trick are tools for plotting recorded data and various other supporting utilities and libraries. Trick is written in C/C++ and Java and supports both Linux and MacOSX computer operating systems. This paper describes Trick's design and use at NASA Johnson Space Center.

  12. Simple, efficient allocation of modelling runs on heterogeneous clusters with MPI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donato, David I.

    2017-01-01

    In scientific modelling and computation, the choice of an appropriate method for allocating tasks for parallel processing depends on the computational setting and on the nature of the computation. The allocation of independent but similar computational tasks, such as modelling runs or Monte Carlo trials, among the nodes of a heterogeneous computational cluster is a special case that has not been specifically evaluated previously. A simulation study shows that a method of on-demand (that is, worker-initiated) pulling from a bag of tasks in this case leads to reliably short makespans for computational jobs despite heterogeneity both within and between cluster nodes. A simple reference implementation in the C programming language with the Message Passing Interface (MPI) is provided.

  13. Effects of intermediate scales on renormalization group running of fermion observables in an SO(10) model

    CERN Document Server

    Meloni, Davide; Riad, Stella

    2014-01-01

    In the context of non-supersymmetric SO(10) models, we analyze the renormalization group equations for the fermions (including neutrinos) from the GUT energy scale down to the electroweak energy scale, explicitly taking into account the effects of an intermediate energy scale induced by a Pati--Salam gauge group. To determine the renormalization group running, we use a numerical minimization procedure based on a nested sampling algorithm that randomly generates the values of 19 model parameters at the GUT scale, evolves them, and finally constructs the values of the physical observables and compares them to the existing experimental data at the electroweak scale. We show that the evolved fermion masses and mixings present sizable deviations from the values obtained without including the effects of the intermediate scale.

  14. Effects of intermediate scales on renormalization group running of fermion observables in an SO(10) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meloni, Davide; Ohlsson, Tommy; Riad, Stella

    2014-12-01

    In the context of non-supersymmetric SO(10) models, we analyze the renormalization group equations for the fermions (including neutrinos) from the GUT energy scale down to the electroweak energy scale, explicitly taking into account the effects of an intermediate energy scale induced by a Pati-Salam gauge group. To determine the renormalization group running, we use a numerical minimization procedure based on a nested sampling algorithm that randomly generates the values of 19 model parameters at the GUT scale, evolves them, and finally constructs the values of the physical observables and compares them to the existing experimental data at the electroweak scale. We show that the evolved fermion masses and mixings present sizable deviations from the values obtained without including the effects of the intermediate scale.

  15. Minkowski space pion model inspired by lattice QCD running quark mass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mello, Clayton S.; de Melo, J. P. B. C.; Frederico, T.

    2017-03-01

    The pion structure in Minkowski space is described in terms of an analytic model of the Bethe-Salpeter amplitude combined with Euclidean Lattice QCD results. The model is physically motivated to take into account the running quark mass, which is fitted to Lattice QCD data. The pion pseudoscalar vertex is associated to the quark mass function, as dictated by dynamical chiral symmetry breaking requirements in the limit of vanishing current quark mass. The quark propagator is analyzed in terms of a spectral representation, and it shows a violation of the positivity constraints. The integral representation of the pion Bethe-Salpeter amplitude is also built. The pion space-like electromagnetic form factor is calculated with a quark electromagnetic current, which satisfies the Ward-Takahashi identity to ensure current conservation. The results for the form factor and weak decay constant are found to be consistent with the experimental data.

  16. Classically conformal U(1 ) ' extended standard model, electroweak vacuum stability, and LHC Run-2 bounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Arindam; Oda, Satsuki; Okada, Nobuchika; Takahashi, Dai-suke

    2016-06-01

    We consider the minimal U(1 ) ' extension of the standard model (SM) with the classically conformal invariance, where an anomaly-free U(1 ) ' gauge symmetry is introduced along with three generations of right-handed neutrinos and a U(1 ) ' Higgs field. Since the classically conformal symmetry forbids all dimensional parameters in the model, the U(1 ) ' gauge symmetry is broken by the Coleman-Weinberg mechanism, generating the mass terms of the U(1 ) ' gauge boson (Z' boson) and the right-handed neutrinos. Through a mixing quartic coupling between the U(1 ) ' Higgs field and the SM Higgs doublet field, the radiative U(1 ) ' gauge symmetry breaking also triggers the breaking of the electroweak symmetry. In this model context, we first investigate the electroweak vacuum instability problem in the SM. Employing the renormalization group equations at the two-loop level and the central values for the world average masses of the top quark (mt=173.34 GeV ) and the Higgs boson (mh=125.09 GeV ), we perform parameter scans to identify the parameter region for resolving the electroweak vacuum instability problem. Next we interpret the recent ATLAS and CMS search limits at the LHC Run-2 for the sequential Z' boson to constrain the parameter region in our model. Combining the constraints from the electroweak vacuum stability and the LHC Run-2 results, we find a bound on the Z' boson mass as mZ'≳3.5 TeV . We also calculate self-energy corrections to the SM Higgs doublet field through the heavy states, the right-handed neutrinos and the Z' boson, and find the naturalness bound as mZ'≲7 TeV , in order to reproduce the right electroweak scale for the fine-tuning level better than 10%. The resultant mass range of 3.5 TeV ≲mZ'≲7 TeV will be explored at the LHC Run-2 in the near future.

  17. Model analysis of soil dust impacts on the boundary layer meteorology and air quality over East Asia in April 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lei; Zhang, Meigen; Zhu, Jia; Skorokhod, Andrei

    2017-05-01

    An online coupled meteorology-chemistry-aerosol model (WRF-Chem) is used to quantify the impact of soil dust on radiative forcing, boundary layer meteorology and air quality over East Asia. The simulation is conducted from 14 to 17 April 2015, when an intense dust storm originated in the Gobi Desert and moved through North China. An integrated comparison analysis using surface observations, satellite, and lidar measurements demonstrates the excellent performance of the WRF-Chem model for meteorological parameters, pollutant concentrations, aerosol optical characteristics, and the spatiotemporal evolution of the dust storm. The maximum aerosol optical depth induced by dust aerosols is simulated to exceed 3.0 over the dust source areas and 1.5 over the downwind regions. Dust has a cooling effect (- 1.19 W m- 2) at the surface, a warming effect (+ 0.90 W m- 2) in the atmosphere and a relatively small forcing (- 0.29 W m- 2) at the top of the atmosphere averaged over East Asia from 14 to 17 April 2015. Due to the impact of dust aerosols, the near-surface air temperature is decreased by 0.01 °C and 0.06 °C in the daytime and increased by 0.13 °C and 0.14 °C at night averaged over the dust sources and the North China Plain (NCP), respectively. The changes in relative humidity are in the range of - 0.38% to + 0.04% for dust sources and - 0.40% to + 0.27% for NCP. The maximum decrease in wind speed of 0.1 m s- 1 is found over NCP. The planetary boundary layer height during the daytime exhibits maximum decreases of 16.34 m and 41.70 m over dust sources and NCP, respectively. The pollutant concentrations are significantly influenced by dust-related heterogeneous chemical reactions, with a maximum decrease of 1.66 ppbV for SO2, 7.15 ppbV for NOy, 35.04 μg m- 3 for NO3-, and a maximum increase of 9.47 μg m- 3 for SO42 - over the downwind areas.

  18. LANL Meteorology Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dewart, Jean Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-02-09

    The goal of the Meteorology Program is to provide all routine meteorology measurements for LANL operational requirements. This report discusses the program, its routine operations, and other services.

  19. Modelling of flexi-coil springs with rubber-metal pads in a locomotive running gear

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michálek T.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, flexi-coil springs are commonly used in the secondary suspension stage of railway vehicles. Lateral stiffness of these springs is influenced by means of their design parameters (number of coils, height, mean diameter of coils, wire diameter etc. and it is often suitable to modify this stiffness in such way, that the suspension shows various lateral stiffness in different directions (i.e., longitudinally vs. laterally in the vehicle-related coordinate system. Therefore, these springs are often supplemented with some kind of rubber-metal pads. This paper deals with modelling of the flexi-coil springs supplemented with tilting rubber-metal tilting pads applied in running gear of an electric locomotive as well as with consequences of application of that solution of the secondary suspension from the point of view of the vehicle running performance. This analysis is performed by means of multi-body simulations and the description of lateral stiffness characteristics of the springs is based on results of experimental measurements of these characteristics performed in heavy laboratories of the Jan Perner Transport Faculty of the University of Pardubice.

  20. STUDY ON THE METEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION MODEL USING THE LEARNING ALGORITHM OF NEURAL ENSEMBLE BASED ON PSO ALGORITHMS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Jian-sheng; JIN Long

    2009-01-01

    Because of the difficulty in deciding on the structure of BP neural network in operational meteorological application and the tendency tbr the network to transform to an issue of local solution,a hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm based on Artificial Neural Network (PSO-BP) model is proposed for monthly mean rainfall of the whole area of Guangxi. It combines Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) with BP,that is,the number of hidden nodes and connection weights are optimized by the implementation of PSO operation. The method produces a better network architecture and initial connection weights,trains the traditional backward propagation again by training samples. The ensemble strategy is carried out for the linear programming to calculate the best weights based on the "east sum of the error absolute value" as the optimal rule. The weighted coefficient of each ensemble individual is obtained. The results show that the method can effectively improve learning and generalization ability of the neural network.

  1. Influence of grid resolution and meteorological forcing on simulated European air quality: A sensitivity study with the modeling system COSMO-MUSCAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolke, Ralf; Schröder, Wolfram; Schrödner, Roland; Renner, Eberhard

    2012-06-01

    Model evaluation studies are essential for determining model performance as well as assessing model deficiencies, and are the focus of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). The chemistry-transport model system COSMO-MUSCAT participates in this initiative. In this paper the robustness and variability of the model results against changes in the model setup are analyzed. Special focus is given to the formation of secondary particulate matter and the ability to reproduce unusually high levels of PM10 in Central Europe caused by long-range transported smoke of fires in western Russia. Seven different model configurations are investigated in this study. The COSMO-MUSCAT results are evaluated in comparison with ground-based measurements in Central Europe. The analysis is performed for two selected periods in April/May 2006 and October 2006 which are characterized by elevated concentrations of PM. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the results is studied against the used grid resolution and the meteorological forcing. Here, COSMO-MUSCAT is applied with different horizontal grid sizes and, alternatively, forced by reanalysis data with finer resolution. The use of finer grid resolutions in COSMO-MUSCAT has direct consequences on the meteorological forcing as well as on the calculated emission and deposition rates. The presented results suggest a large impact of the meteorological effects on the PM concentrations. The more accurate spatial appointment of the emissions and deposition fluxes seems to be of little consequence compared to the meteorological forcing.

  2. Probabilistic landslide run-out assessment with a 2-D dynamic numerical model using a Monte Carlo method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cepeda, Jose; Luna, Byron Quan; Nadim, Farrokh

    2013-04-01

    An essential component of a quantitative landslide hazard assessment is establishing the extent of the endangered area. This task requires accurate prediction of the run-out behaviour of a landslide, which includes the estimation of the run-out distance, run-out width, velocities, pressures, and depth of the moving mass and the final configuration of the deposits. One approach to run-out modelling is to reproduce accurately the dynamics of the propagation processes. A number of dynamic numerical models are able to compute the movement of the flow over irregular topographic terrains (3-D) controlled by a complex interaction between mechanical properties that may vary in space and time. Given the number of unknown parameters and the fact that most of the rheological parameters cannot be measured in the laboratory or field, the parametrization of run-out models is very difficult in practice. For this reason, the application of run-out models is mostly used for back-analysis of past events and very few studies have attempted to achieve forward predictions. Consequently all models are based on simplified descriptions that attempt to reproduce the general features of the failed mass motion through the use of parameters (mostly controlling shear stresses at the base of the moving mass) which account for aspects not explicitly described or oversimplified. The uncertainties involved in the run-out process have to be approached in a stochastic manner. It is of significant importance to develop methods for quantifying and properly handling the uncertainties in dynamic run-out models, in order to allow a more comprehensive approach to quantitative risk assessment. A method was developed to compute the variation in run-out intensities by using a dynamic run-out model (MassMov2D) and a probabilistic framework based on a Monte Carlo simulation in order to analyze the effect of the uncertainty of input parameters. The probability density functions of the rheological parameters

  3. Source regions of ragweed pollen arriving in south-western Poland and the influence of meteorological data on the HYSPLIT model results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilińska, Daria; Skjøth, Carsten Ambelas; Werner, Małgorzata; Kryza, Maciej; Malkiewicz, Małgorzata; Krynicka, Justyna; Drzeniecka-Osiadacz, Anetta

    2017-01-01

    We have investigated the relationship between the inflow of air masses and the ragweed pollen concentration in SW Poland (Wrocław) for a 10-year period of 2005-2014. The HYSPLIT trajectory model was used to verify whether episodes of high concentrations can be related to regions outside of the main known ragweed centres in Europe, like Pannonian Plain, northern Italy and Ukraine. Furthermore, we used two different meteorological data sets (the global GDAS data set and from the WRF mesoscale model; the meteorological parameters were: U and V wind components, temperature and relative humidity) into HYSPLIT to evaluate the influence of meteorological input on calculated trajectories for high concentration ragweed episodes. The results show that the episodes of high pollen concentration (above 20 pm(-3)) represent a great part of total recorded ragweed pollen in Wrocław, but occur rarely and not in all years. High pollen episodes are connected with air masses coming from south and south-west Europe, which confirms the existence of expected ragweed centres but showed that other centres near Wrocław are not present. The HYSPLIT simulations with two different meteorological inputs indicated that footprint studies on ragweed benefit from a higher resolution meteorological data sets.

  4. Prosthetic model, but not stiffness or height, affects the metabolic cost of running for athletes with unilateral transtibial amputations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Owen N; Taboga, Paolo; Grabowski, Alena M

    2017-07-01

    Running-specific prostheses enable athletes with lower limb amputations to run by emulating the spring-like function of biological legs. Current prosthetic stiffness and height recommendations aim to mitigate kinematic asymmetries for athletes with unilateral transtibial amputations. However, it is unclear how different prosthetic configurations influence the biomechanics and metabolic cost of running. Consequently, we investigated how prosthetic model, stiffness, and height affect the biomechanics and metabolic cost of running. Ten athletes with unilateral transtibial amputations each performed 15 running trials at 2.5 or 3.0 m/s while we measured ground reaction forces and metabolic rates. Athletes ran using three different prosthetic models with five different stiffness category and height combinations per model. Use of an Ottobock 1E90 Sprinter prosthesis reduced metabolic cost by 4.3 and 3.4% compared with use of Freedom Innovations Catapult [fixed effect (β) = -0.177; P forces, prolonged ground contact times (β = -4.349; P = 0.012), and decreased leg stiffness (β = 0.071; P forces (β = 0.007; P = 0.003) but was unrelated to stride kinematic symmetry (P ≥ 0.636). Therefore, prosthetic recommendations based on symmetric stride kinematics do not necessarily minimize the metabolic cost of running. Instead, an optimal prosthetic model, which improves overall biomechanics, minimizes the metabolic cost of running for athletes with unilateral transtibial amputations.NEW & NOTEWORTHY The metabolic cost of running for athletes with unilateral transtibial amputations depends on prosthetic model and is associated with lower peak and stance average vertical ground reaction forces, longer contact times, and reduced leg stiffness. Metabolic cost is unrelated to prosthetic stiffness, height, and stride kinematic symmetry. Unlike nonamputees who decrease leg stiffness with increased in-series surface stiffness, biological limb stiffness for athletes with unilateral

  5. Atmospheric dispersion models and pre-processing of meteorological data for real-time application

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, T.; Desiato, F.

    1993-01-01

    and selects a series of suitable local scale atmospheric flow and dispersion models for RODOS, covering a variety of release types, terrain types and atmospheric stability conditions. The identification and ranking of suitable models is based on a discussion of principal modelling requirements, scale...... considerations, model performance and evaluation records, computational needs, user expertise, and type of sources to be modelled. Models suitable for a given accident scenario are chosen from this hierarchy in order to provide the dose assessments via the dispersion module. A forecasting feasibility......-processor provides the flow and dispersion models with on-site wind and atmospheric stability measures....

  6. AQA - Air Quality model for Austria: comparison of ALADIN and ALARO forecasts with observed meteorological profiles and PM10 predictions with CAMx

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirtl, M.; Krüger, B. C.; Kaiser, A.

    2009-09-01

    In AQA, Air Quality model for Austria, the regional weather forecast model ALADIN-Austria of the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) is used in combination with the chemical transport model CAMx (www.camx.com) to conduct forecasts of gaseous and particulate air pollutants over Austria. The forecasts which are done in cooperation with the University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences in Vienna (BOKU) are supported by the regional governments since 2005. In the current model version AQA uses the operational meteorological forecasts conducted with ALADIN which has a horizontal resolution of 9.7 km. Since 2008 the higher resolved ALARO is also available at the ZAMG. It has a horizontal resolution of 4.9 km and models the PBL with more vertical layers than ALADIN. ALARO also uses more complex algorithms to calculate precipitation, radiation and TKE. Another advantage of ALARO concerning the chemical modelling with CAMx is that additionally to the higher resolved meteorological forecasts it is possible to use finer emission inventories which are available for Austria. From 2006 to 2007 a SODAR-RASS of the ZAMG was operated in the north-eastern Austrian flat lands (Kittsee). In this study the measured vertical profiles of wind and temperature are compared with the model predictions. The evaluation is conducted for an episode in January 2007 when high PM10 concentrations were measured at the air quality station Kittsee. Analysis of the RASS-temperature-profiles show that during this episode a strong nocturnal inversion developed at the investigated area. The ability of the models ALADIN and ALARO to predict this complex meteorological condition is investigated. Both models are also used as meteorological driver for the chemical dispersion model CAMx and the results of predicted PM10 concentrations are compared to air quality measurements.

  7. Analysis of the traditional vehicle’s running cost and the electric vehicle’s running cost under car-following model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Tie-Qiao; Xu, Ke-Wei; Yang, Shi-Chun; Shang, Hua-Yan

    2016-03-01

    In this paper, we use car-following theory to study the traditional vehicle’s running cost and the electric vehicle’s running cost. The numerical results illustrate that the traditional vehicle’s running cost is larger than that of the electric vehicle and that the system’s total running cost drops with the increase of the electric vehicle’s proportion, which shows that the electric vehicle is better than the traditional vehicle from the perspective of the running cost.

  8. Near-Surface Meteorology During the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Evaluation of Reanalyses and Global Climate Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Boer, G.; Shupe, M.D.; Caldwell, P.M.; Bauer, Susanne E.; Persson, O.; Boyle, J.S.; Kelley, M.; Klein, S.A.; Tjernstrom, M.

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three atmospheric reanalyses (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)- Interim reanalysis, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, and NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis) and two global climate models (CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model 5) and NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large-scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms, are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, has demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the benefits gained by evaluating individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms that result in the best net energy budget.

  9. Towards a numerical run-out model for quick-clay slides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Issler, Dieter; L'Heureux, Jean-Sébastien; Cepeda, José M.; Luna, Byron Quan; Gebreslassie, Tesfahunegn A.

    2015-04-01

    Highly sensitive glacio-marine clays occur in many relatively low-lying areas near the coasts of eastern Canada, Scandinavia and northern Russia. If the load exceeds the yield stress of these clays, they quickly liquefy, with a reduction of the yield strength and the viscosity by several orders of magnitude. Leaching, fluvial erosion, earthquakes and man-made overloads, by themselves or combined, are the most frequent triggers of quick-clay slides, which are hard to predict and can attain catastrophic dimensions. The present contribution reports on two preparatory studies that were conducted with a view to creating a run-out model tailored to the characteristics of quick-clay slides. One study analyzed the connections between the morphological and geotechnical properties of more than 30 well-documented Norwegian quick-clay slides and their run-out behavior. The laboratory experiments by Locat and Demers (1988) suggest that the behavior of quick clays can be reasonably described by universal relations involving the liquidity index, plastic index, remolding energy, salinity and sensitivity. However, these tests should be repeated with Norwegian clays and analyzed in terms of a (shear-thinning) Herschel-Bulkley fluid rather than a Bingham fluid because the shear stress appears to grow in a sub-linear fashion with the shear rate. Further study is required to understand the discrepancy between the material parameters obtained in laboratory tests of material from observed slides and in back-calculations of the same slides with the simple model by Edgers & Karlsrud (1982). The second study assessed the capability of existing numerical flow models to capture the most important aspects of quick-clay slides by back-calculating three different, well documented events in Norway: Rissa (1978), Finneidfjord (1996) and Byneset (2012). The numerical codes were (i) BING, a quasi-two-dimensional visco-plastic model, (ii) DAN3D (2009 version), and (iii) MassMov2D. The latter two are

  10. Model based control for run-of-river system. Part 2: Comparison of control structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liubomyr Vytvytskyi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Optimal operation and control of a run-of-river hydro power plant depend on good knowledge of the elements of the plant in the form of models. Both the control architecture of the system, i.e. the choice of inputs and outputs, and to what degree a model is used, will affect the achievable control performance. Here, a model of a river reach based on the Saint Venant equations for open channel flow illustrates the dynamics of the run-of-river system. The hyperbolic partial differential equations are discretized using the Kurganov-Petrova central upwind scheme - see Part I for details. A comparison is given of achievable control performance using two alternative control signals: the inlet or the outlet volumetric flow rates to the system, in combination with a number of different control structures such as PI control, PI control with Smith predictor, and predictive control. The control objective is to keep the level just in front of the dam as high as possible, and with little variation in the level to avoid overflow over the dam. With a step change in the volumetric inflow to the river reach (disturbance and using the volumetric outflow as the control signal, PI control gives quite good performance. Model predictive control (MPC gives superior control in the sense of constraining the variation in the water level, at a cost of longer computational time and thus constraints on possible sample time. Details on controller tuning are given. With volumetric inflow to the river reach as control signal and outflow (production as disturbance, this introduces a considerable time delay in the control signal. Because of nonlinearity in the system (varying time delay, etc., it is difficult to achieve stable closed loop performance using a simple PI controller. However, by combining a PI controller with a Smith predictor based on a simple integrator + fixed time delay model, stable closed loop operation is possible with decent control performance. Still, an MPC

  11. Analysis of CO in the tropical troposphere using Aura satellite data and the GEOS-Chem model: insights into transport characteristics of the GEOS meteorological products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junhua Liu

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available We use the GEOS-Chem chemistry-transport model (CTM to interpret the spatial and temporal variations of tropical tropospheric CO observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS and the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES. In so doing, we diagnose and evaluate transport in the GEOS-4 and GEOS-5 assimilated meteorological fields that drive the model, with a particular focus on vertical mixing at the end of the dry season when convection moves over the source regions. The results indicate that over South America, deep convection in both GEOS-4 and GEOS-5 decays at too low an altitude early in the wet season, and the source of CO from isoprene in the model (MEGAN v2.1 is too large, causing a lag in the model's seasonal maximum of CO compared to MLS CO in the upper troposphere (UT. TES and MLS data reveal problems with excessive transport of CO to the eastern equatorial Pacific and lofting in the ITCZ in August and September, particularly in GEOS-4. Over southern Africa, GEOS-4 and GEOS-5 simulations match the phase of the observed CO variation from the lower troposphere (LT to the UT fairly well, although the magnitude of the seasonal maximum is underestimated considerably due to low emissions in the model. A sensitivity run with increased emissions leads to improved agreement with observed CO in the LT and middle troposphere (MT, but the amplitude of the seasonal variation is too high in the UT in GEOS-4. Difficulty in matching CO in the LT and UT implies there may be overly vigorous vertical mixing in GEOS-4 early in the wet season. Both simulations and observations show a time lag between the peak in fire emissions (July and August and in CO (September and October. We argue that it is caused by the prevailing subsidence in the LT until convection moves south in September, as well as the low sensitivity of TES data in the LT over the African Plateau. The MLS data suggest that too much CO has been transported from fires in northern Africa to the UT

  12. A spatiotemporal dengue fever early warning model accounting for nonlinear associations with meteorological factors: a Bayesian maximum entropy approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chien, Lung-Chang

    2014-05-01

    Dengue fever has been identified as one of the most widespread vector-borne diseases in tropical and sub-tropical. In the last decade, dengue is an emerging infectious disease epidemic in Taiwan especially in the southern area where have annually high incidences. For the purpose of disease prevention and control, an early warning system is urgently needed. Previous studies have showed significant relationships between climate variables, in particular, rainfall and temperature, and the temporal epidemic patterns of dengue cases. However, the transmission of the dengue fever is a complex interactive process that mostly understated the composite space-time effects of dengue fever. This study proposes developing a one-week ahead warning system of dengue fever epidemics in the southern Taiwan that considered nonlinear associations between weekly dengue cases and meteorological factors across space and time. The early warning system based on an integration of distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. The study identified the most significant meteorological measures including weekly minimum temperature and maximum 24-hour rainfall with continuous 15-week lagged time to dengue cases variation under condition of uncertainty. Subsequently, the combination of nonlinear lagged effects of climate variables and space-time dependence function is implemented via a Bayesian framework to predict dengue fever occurrences in the southern Taiwan during 2012. The result shows the early warning system is useful for providing potential outbreak spatio-temporal prediction of dengue fever distribution. In conclusion, the proposed approach can provide a practical disease control tool for environmental regulators seeking more effective strategies for dengue fever prevention.

  13. Non-linear structure formation in the `Running FLRW' cosmological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bibiano, Antonio; Croton, Darren J.

    2016-07-01

    We present a suite of cosmological N-body simulations describing the `Running Friedmann-Lemaïtre-Robertson-Walker' (R-FLRW) cosmological model. This model is based on quantum field theory in a curved space-time and extends Lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM) with a time-evolving vacuum density, Λ(z), and time-evolving gravitational Newton's coupling, G(z). In this paper, we review the model and introduce the necessary analytical treatment needed to adapt a reference N-body code. Our resulting simulations represent the first realization of the full growth history of structure in the R-FLRW cosmology into the non-linear regime, and our normalization choice makes them fully consistent with the latest cosmic microwave background data. The post-processing data products also allow, for the first time, an analysis of the properties of the halo and sub-halo populations. We explore the degeneracies of many statistical observables and discuss the steps needed to break them. Furthermore, we provide a quantitative description of the deviations of R-FLRW from ΛCDM, which could be readily exploited by future cosmological observations to test and further constrain the model.

  14. A comparison between conventional and LANDSAT based hydrologic modeling: The Four Mile Run case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragan, R. M.; Jackson, T. J.; Fitch, W. N.; Shubinski, R. P.

    1976-01-01

    Models designed to support the hydrologic studies associated with urban water resources planning require input parameters that are defined in terms of land cover. Estimating the land cover is a difficult and expensive task when drainage areas larger than a few sq. km are involved. Conventional and LANDSAT based methods for estimating the land cover based input parameters required by hydrologic planning models were compared in a case study of the 50.5 sq. km (19.5 sq. mi) Four Mile Run Watershed in Virginia. Results of the study indicate that the LANDSAT based approach is highly cost effective for planning model studies. The conventional approach to define inputs was based on 1:3600 aerial photos, required 110 man-days and a total cost of $14,000. The LANDSAT based approach required 6.9 man-days and cost $2,350. The conventional and LANDSAT based models gave similar results relative to discharges and estimated annual damages expected from no flood control, channelization, and detention storage alternatives.

  15. Development of a simulation model for compression ignition engine running with ignition improved blend

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudeshkumar Ponnusamy Moranahalli

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Department of Automobile Engineering, Anna University, Chennai, India. The present work describes the thermodynamic and heat transfer models used in a computer program which simulates the diesel fuel and ignition improver blend to predict the combustion and emission characteristics of a direct injection compression ignition engine fuelled with ignition improver blend using classical two zone approach. One zone consists of pure air called non burning zone and other zone consist of fuel and combustion products called burning zone. First law of thermodynamics and state equations are applied in each of the two zones to yield cylinder temperatures and cylinder pressure histories. Using the two zone combustion model the combustion parameters and the chemical equilibrium composition were determined. To validate the model an experimental investigation has been conducted on a single cylinder direct injection diesel engine fuelled with 12% by volume of 2- ethoxy ethanol blend with diesel fuel. Addition of ignition improver blend to diesel fuel decreases the exhaust smoke and increases the thermal efficiency for the power outputs. It was observed that there is a good agreement between simulated and experimental results and the proposed model requires low computational time for a complete run.

  16. The effect of urban canopy parameterizations on mesoscale meteorological model simulations in the Paso del Norte area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M.J.; Williams, M.D.

    1997-04-01

    Since mesoscale numerical models do not have the spatial resolution to directly simulate the fluid dynamics and thermodynamics in and around urban structures, urban canopy parameterizations are sometimes used to approximate the drag, heating, and enhanced turbulent kinetic energy (tke) produced by the sub-grid scale urban elements. In this paper, we investigate the effect of the urban canopy parameterizations used in the HOTMAC mesoscale meteorological model by turning the parameterizations on and off. The model simulations were performed in the Paso del Norte region, which includes the cities of El Paso and Ciudad Juarez, the Franklin and Sierra Juarez mountains, and the Rio Grande. The metropolitan area is surrounded by relatively barren scrubland and is intersected by strips of vegetation along the Rio Grande. Results indicate that the urban canopy parameterizations do affect the mesoscale flow field, reducing the magnitude of wind speed and changing the magnitude of the sensible heat flux and tke in the metropolitan area. A nighttime heat island and a daytime cool island exist when urban canopy parameters are turned on, but associated recirculation flows are not readily apparent. Model-computed solar, net, and longwave radiation values look reasonable, agreeing for the most part with published measurements.

  17. Near-surface meteorology during the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS: evaluation of reanalyses and global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. de Boer

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS are used to evaluate the performance of three reanalyses (ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/DOE and two global climate models (CAM5 and NASA GISS ModelE2 in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, is demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the need to evaluate individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms resulting in the best net energy budget.

  18. Development and testing of a high-resolution model for tropospheric sulfate driven by observation-derived meteorology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benkovitz, C.M. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States). Environmental Chemistry Div.

    1994-05-01

    A high-resolution three-dimensional Eulerian transport and transformation model has been developed to simulate concentrations of tropospheric sulfate for specific times and locations; it was applied over the North Atlantic and adjacent continental regions during October and November, 1986. The model represents emissions of anthropogenic SO{sub 2} and sulfate and of biogenic sulfur species, horizontal and vertical transport, gas-phase oxidation of SO{sub 2} and dimethylsulfide, aqueous-phase oxidation of SO{sub 2}, and wet and dry deposition of SO{sub 2}, sulfate, and methanesulfonic acid (MSA). The meteorological driver is the 6-hour output from the forecast model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Calculated sulfate concentrations and column burdens, examined in detail for October 15 and October 22 at 6Z, are related to existing weather patterns. These results exhibit rich temporal and spatial structure; the characteristic (1/e) temporal autocorrelation time for the sulfate column burdens over the central North Atlantic averages 20 hours; 95% of the values were 25 hours or less. The characteristic distance of spatial autocorrelation over this region depends on direction and averages 1,600 km; with 10{sup th} percentile value of 400 km and 90{sup th} percentile value of 1,700 km. Daily average model sulfate concentrations at the lowest vertical accurately represent the spatial variability, temporal episodicity, and absolute magnitudes of surface concentrations measured by monitoring stations in Europe, Canada and Barbados.

  19. Improved sub-seasonal meteorological forecast skill using weighted multi-model ensemble simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanders, Niko; Wood, Eric F.

    2016-09-01

    Sub-seasonal to seasonal weather and hydrological forecasts have the potential to provide vital information for a variety of water-related decision makers. Here, we investigate the skill of four sub-seasonal forecast models from phase-2 of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble using reforecasts for the period 1982-2012. Two weighted multi-model ensemble means from the models have been developed for predictions of both sub-seasonal precipitation and temperature. By combining models through optimal weights, the multi-model forecast skill is significantly improved compared to a ‘standard’ equally weighted multi-model forecast mean. We show that optimal model weights are robust and the forecast skill is maintained for increased length of time and regions with a low initial forecast skill show significant skill after optimal weighting of the individual model forecast. The sub-seasonal model forecasts models show high skill over the tropics, approximating their skill at monthly resolution. Using the weighted approach, a significant increase is found in the forecast skill for dry, wet, cold and warm extreme events. The weighted mean approach brings significant advances to sub-seasonal forecasting due to its reduced uncertainty in the forecasts with a gain in forecast skill. This significantly improves their value for end-user applications and our ability to use them to prepare for upcoming extreme conditions, like floods and droughts.

  20. Real-time flood forecast and flood alert map over the Huaihe River Basin in China using a coupled hydro-meteorological modeling system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIN; Charles; A.

    2008-01-01

    A coupled hydro-meteorological modeling system is established for real-time flood forecast and flood alert over the Huaihe River Basin in China. The system consists of the mesoscale atmospheric model MC2 (Canadian Mesoscale Compressible Community) that is one-way coupled to the Chinese Xinanjiang distributed hydrological model, a grid-based flow routing model, and a module for acquiring real-time gauge precipitation. The system had been successfully tested in a hindcast mode using 1998 and 2003 flood cases in the basin, and has been running daily in a real-time mode for the summers of 2005 and 2006 over the Wangjiaba sub-basin of the Huaihe River Basin. The MC2 precipitation combined with gauge values is used to drive the Xinanjiang model for hydrograph prediction and production of flood alert map. The performance of the system is illustrated through an examination of real-time flood forecasts for the severe flood case of July 4―15, 2005 over the sub-basin, which was the first and largest flood event encountered to date. The 96-h forecasts of MC2 precipitation are first evaluated using observations from 41 rain gauges over the sub-basin. The forecast hydrograph is then validated with observations at the Wangjiaba outlet of the sub-basin. MC2 precipitation generally compares well with gauge values. The flood peak was predicted well in both timing and intensity in the 96-hour forecast using the combined gauge-MC2 precipitation. The real-time flood alert map can spatially display the propagation of forecast floods over the sub-basin. Our forecast hydrograph was used as opera-tional guidance by the Bureau of Hydrograph, Ministry of Water Resources. Such guidance has been proven very useful for the Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters in operational decision making for flood management. The encouraging results demonstrate the potential of using mesoscale atmospheric model precipitation for real-time flood forecast, which can result in a longer

  1. Short-run analysis of fiscal policy and the current account in a finite horizon model

    OpenAIRE

    Heng-fu Zou

    1995-01-01

    This paper utilizes a technique developed by Judd to quantify the short-run effects of fiscal policies and income shocks on the current account in a small open economy. It is found that: (1) a future increase in government spending improves the short-run current account; (2) a future tax increase worsens the short-run current account; (3) a present increase in the government spending worsens the short-run current account dollar by dollar, while a present increase in the income improves the cu...

  2. Equator To Pole in the Cretaceous: A Comparison of Clumped Isotope Data and CESM Model Runs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, S. V.; Tabor, C. R.; Meyer, K.; Lohmann, K. C.; Poulsen, C. J.; Carpenter, S. J.

    2015-12-01

    An outstanding issue in the field of paleoclimate is the inability of models to reproduce the shallower equator-to-pole temperature gradients suggested by proxies for past greenhouse periods. Here, we focus on the Late Cretaceous (Maastrichtian, 72-66 Ma), when estimated CO2 levels were ~400-1000ppm. New clumped isotope temperature data from more than 10 sites spanning 65°S to 48°N are used to reconstruct the Maastrichtian equator-to-pole temperature gradient. This data is compared to CESM model simulations of the Maastrichtian, run using relevant paleogeography and atmospheric CO2 levels of 560 and 1120 ppm. Due to a reduced "proxy toolkit" this far in the past, much of our knowledge of Cretaceous climate comes from the oxygen isotope paleothermometer, which incorporates an assumption about the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (δ18Osw), a quantity often related to salinity. With the clumped isotope paleothermometer, we can directly calculate δ18Osw. This will be used to test commonly applied assumptions about water composition, and will be compared to modeled ocean salinity. We also discuss basin-to-basin differences and their implications for paleo-circulation patterns.

  3. Non-linear structure formation in the "Running FLRW" cosmological model

    CERN Document Server

    Bibiano, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    We present a suite of cosmological N-body simulations describing the "Running Friedmann-Lema{\\"i}tre-Robertson-Walker" (R-FLRW) cosmological model. This model is based on quantum field theory in a curved space-time and extends {\\Lambda}CDM with a time-evolving vacuum density, {\\Lambda}(z), and time-evolving gravitational Newton's coupling, G(z). In this paper we review the model and introduce the necessary analytical treatment needed to adapt a reference N-body code. Our resulting simulations represent the first realisation of the full growth history of structure in the R-FLRW cosmology into the non-linear regime, and our normalisation choice makes them fully consistent with the latest cosmic microwave background data. The post-processing data products also allow, for the first time, an analysis of the properties of the halo and sub-halo populations. We explore the degeneracies of many statistical observables and discuss the steps needed to break them. Furthermore, we provide a quantitative description of the...

  4. Utilization of remote sensing data on meteorological and vegetation characteristics for modeling water and heat regimes of large agricultural region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzylev, Eugene; Startseva, Zoya; Uspensky, Alexander; Volkova, Elena

    2016-04-01

    Presently, physical-mathematical models such as SVAT (Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere-Transfer) developed with varying degrees of detail are one of the most effective tools to evaluate the characteristics of the water and heat regimes of vegetation covered territories. The produced SVAT model is designed to calculate the soil water content, evapotranspiration (evaporation from bare soil and transpiration), infiltration of water into the soil, vertical latent and sensible heat fluxes and other water and heat regime characteristics as well as vegetation and soil surface temperatures and the temperature and soil moisture distributions in depth. The model is adapted to satellite-derived estimates of precipitation, land surface temperatures and vegetation cover characteristics. The case study has been carried out for the located in the forest-steppe zone territory of part of the agricultural Central Black Earth Region of Russia with coordinates 49° 30'-54° N and 31° -43° E and area of 227 300 km2 for years 2011-2014 vegetation seasons. The soil and vegetation characteristics are used as the model parameters and the meteorological characteristics are considered to be input variables. These values have been obtained from ground-based observations and satellite-based measurements by radiometers AVHRR/NOAA, MODIS/EOS Terra and Aqua, SEVIRI/MSG-2,-3 (Meteosat-9, -10). To provide the retrieval of meteorological and vegetation cover characteristics the new and pre-existing methods and technologies of above radiometer thematic processing data have been developed or refined. From AVHRR data there have been derived estimates of precipitation P, efficient land surface temperature (LST) Ts.eff and emissivity E, surface-air temperature at a level of vegetation cover Ta, normalized difference vegetation index NDVI, leaf area index LAI and vegetation cover fraction B. The remote sensing products LST Tls, E, NDVI, LAI derived from MODIS data and covering the study area have been

  5. Smoke Dispersion Modeling Over Complex Terrain Using High-Resolution Meteorological Data and Satellite Observations: The FireHub Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomos, S.; Amiridis, V.; Zanis, P.; Gerasopoulos, E.; Sofiou, F. I.; Herekakis, T.; Brioude, J.; Stohl, A.; Kahn, R. A.; Kontoes, C.

    2015-01-01

    A total number of 20,212 fire hot spots were recorded by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite instrument over Greece during the period 2002e2013. The Fire Radiative Power (FRP) of these events ranged from 10 up to 6000 MW at 1 km resolution, and many of these fire episodes resulted in long-range transport of smoke over distances up to several hundred kilometers. Three different smoke episodes over Greece are analyzed here using real time hot-spot observations from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) satellite instrument as well as from MODIS hot-spots. Simulations of smoke dispersion are performed with the FLEXPART-WRF model and particulate matter emissions are calculated directly from the observed FRP. The modeled smoke plumes are compared with smoke stereo-heights from the Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) instrument and the sensitivities to atmospheric and modeling parameters are examined. Driving the simulations with high resolution meteorology (4 4 km) and using geostationary satellite data to identify the hot spots allows the description of local scale features that govern smoke dispersion. The long-range transport of smoke is found to be favored over the complex coastline environment of Greece due to the abrupt changes between land and marine planetary boundary layers (PBL) and the decoupling of smoke layers from the surface.

  6. Smoke dispersion modeling over complex terrain using high resolution meteorological data and satellite observations - The FireHub platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomos, S.; Amiridis, V.; Zanis, P.; Gerasopoulos, E.; Sofiou, F. I.; Herekakis, T.; Brioude, J.; Stohl, A.; Kahn, R. A.; Kontoes, C.

    2015-10-01

    A total number of 20,212 fire hot spots were recorded by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite instrument over Greece during the period 2002-2013. The Fire Radiative Power (FRP) of these events ranged from 10 up to 6000 MW at 1 km resolution, and many of these fire episodes resulted in long-range transport of smoke over distances up to several hundred kilometers. Three different smoke episodes over Greece are analyzed here using real time hot-spot observations from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) satellite instrument as well as from MODIS hot-spots. Simulations of smoke dispersion are performed with the FLEXPART-WRF model and particulate matter emissions are calculated directly from the observed FRP. The modeled smoke plumes are compared with smoke stereo-heights from the Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) instrument and the sensitivities to atmospheric and modeling parameters are examined. Driving the simulations with high resolution meteorology (4 × 4 km) and using geostationary satellite data to identify the hot spots allows the description of local scale features that govern smoke dispersion. The long-range transport of smoke is found to be favored over the complex coastline environment of Greece due to the abrupt changes between land and marine planetary boundary layers (PBL) and the decoupling of smoke layers from the surface.

  7. Smoke Dispersion Modeling Over Complex Terrain Using High-Resolution Meteorological Data and Satellite Observations: The FireHub Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomos, S.; Amiridis, V.; Zanis, P.; Gerasopoulos, E.; Sofiou, F. I.; Herekakis, T.; Brioude, J.; Stohl, A.; Kahn, R. A.; Kontoes, C.

    2015-01-01

    A total number of 20,212 fire hot spots were recorded by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite instrument over Greece during the period 2002e2013. The Fire Radiative Power (FRP) of these events ranged from 10 up to 6000 MW at 1 km resolution, and many of these fire episodes resulted in long-range transport of smoke over distances up to several hundred kilometers. Three different smoke episodes over Greece are analyzed here using real time hot-spot observations from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) satellite instrument as well as from MODIS hot-spots. Simulations of smoke dispersion are performed with the FLEXPART-WRF model and particulate matter emissions are calculated directly from the observed FRP. The modeled smoke plumes are compared with smoke stereo-heights from the Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) instrument and the sensitivities to atmospheric and modeling parameters are examined. Driving the simulations with high resolution meteorology (4 4 km) and using geostationary satellite data to identify the hot spots allows the description of local scale features that govern smoke dispersion. The long-range transport of smoke is found to be favored over the complex coastline environment of Greece due to the abrupt changes between land and marine planetary boundary layers (PBL) and the decoupling of smoke layers from the surface.

  8. Seasonal modeling of hand, foot, and mouth disease as a function of meteorological variations in Chongqing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Pin; Zhao, Han; You, Fangxin; Zhou, Hailong; Goggins, William B.

    2017-08-01

    Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an enterovirus-induced infectious disease, mainly affecting children under 5 years old. Outbreaks of HFMD in recent years indicate the disease interacts with both the weather and season. This study aimed to investigate the seasonal association between HFMD and weather variation in Chongqing, China. Generalized additive models and distributed lag non-linear models based on a maximum lag of 14 days, with negative binomial distribution assumed to account for overdispersion, were constructed to model the association between reporting HFMD cases from 2009 to 2014 and daily mean temperature, relative humidity, total rainfall and sun duration, adjusting for trend, season, and day of the week. The year-round temperature and relative humidity, rainfall in summer, and sun duration in winter were all significantly associated with HFMD. An inverted-U relationship was found between mean temperature and HFMD above 19 °C in summer, with a maximum morbidity at 27 °C, while the risk increased linearly with the temperature in winter. A hockey-stick association was found for relative humidity in summer with increasing risks over 60%. Heavy rainfall, relative to no rain, was found to be associated with reduced HFMD risk in summer and 2 h of sunshine could decrease the risk by 21% in winter. The present study showed meteorological variables were differentially associated with HFMD incidence in two seasons. Short-term weather variation surveillance and forecasting could be employed as an early indicator for potential HFMD outbreaks.

  9. On Demand Runs Of Mesoscale Models : Météo-France multi-mission, multi-support GUI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Periard, C.; Pourret, V.; Chaupin, D.

    2009-09-01

    Numerous experiment campaigns have shown the interest of mesoscale models to represent weather conditions of the atmosphere as a support to various applications, from electromagnetic propagation to wind power atlas. However running mesoscale models requires high level knowledge on computing and modelling to define the different parameters for a given simulation. With the increase of the demands for mesoscale simulations, we decided to develop a GUI that enables to easily define and run type-experiments Ø at any location on the globe Ø on different types of computers (from Meteo-France Fujitsu to a PC Cluster) Ø with different choices of forcing models. The GUI developed in PHP, uses a map server to visualize the location of the experiment being defined and the different forcing models available for the simulation. The other parameters such as time steps, resolutions, sizes and number of embedded domains, etc … can be modified through checkboxes or multiple choices lists in the GUI. So far, the GUI has been used to run 3 different types of experiment : Ø for EM propagation purpose, during an experiment campaign near Toulon : the simulations were run on a PC Cluster in analyse mode. Ø for wind profiles prediction, in Afghanistan : the simulations are run on the Fujitsu in forecast mode. Ø for weather forecast, during a the F1 race in Japan : the simulations were run on a PC Cluster in forecast mode. During the presentation, I will first give some screen-prints of the different fill-in forms of the Gui and the way to define an experiment. Then I will focus on the 3 examples mentioned above showing different types of graphs and maps produced. There are tons of other applications where this tool is going to be useful especially in climatology: using weather type classification and downscaling, the Gui will help run the simulations of the different clusters representatives . The last thing to accomplish is find a name for the tool.

  10. Improved sub-seasonal meteorological forecast skill using weighted multi-model ensemble simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wanders, Niko|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364253940; Wood, Eric F.

    2016-01-01

    Sub-seasonal to seasonal weather and hydrological forecasts have the potential to provide vital information for a variety of water-related decision makers. Here, we investigate the skill of four sub-seasonal forecast models from phase-2 of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble using reforecasts

  11. DECO - Extracting and converting meteorological driving data for hydrological models via a web-based platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richling, Andy; Fischer, Madlen; Rust, Henning W.; Kadow, Christopher; Vagenas, Christos; Ulbrich, Uwe

    2016-04-01

    Climate change impact assessment for hydrology and related water resource management is based on global climate projections, their regional downscaling and the subsequent use of this data in hydrological models. While global climate projections, as well as regional downscaled data are relatively easily available due to the CMIP and CORDEX activities, it cost some effort to prepare this data for use with hydrological models. This implies several steps: a change of grid or transformation to gauge based values, a bias correction and a conversion to the file format from climate model standards to a format accessible by the hydrological model. In BINGO, we developed the plug-in DECO for the web-based (also command line interface) evaluation platform FreVa (http://freva.met.fu-berlin.de) to search and extract climate data, post-process and convert it to the required output format. As far as possible, all post-processing steps are identical for all models at all BINGO research sites to ensure comparability; the research site and model specific file format conversion has been implemented for all hydrological models to be used. This approach ensures that post-processing (bias correction, grid conversion, etc.) are identical for all sites and are tested by a large community; data extraction is easily reproducible and and new data set injected into the FreVa data pool can be readily extracted and converted for timely use with hydrological models. Apart from transparency and reproducibility, this approach allows the timely conversion of new (downscaled) climate projections to hydrological application and may serve as an example for data dissemination within the hydrological modeling community.

  12. Data-driven modeling of systemic delay propagation under severe meteorological conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Fleurquin, Pablo; Eguiluz, Victor M

    2013-01-01

    The upsetting consequences of weather conditions are well known to any person involved in air transportation. Still the quantification of how these disturbances affect delay propagation and the effectiveness of managers and pilots interventions to prevent possible large-scale system failures needs further attention. In this work, we employ an agent-based data-driven model developed using real flight performance registers for the entire US airport network and focus on the events occurring on October 27 2010 in the United States. A major storm complex that was later called the 2010 Superstorm took place that day. Our model correctly reproduces the evolution of the delay-spreading dynamics. By considering different intervention measures, we can even improve the model predictions getting closer to the real delay data. Our model can thus be of help to managers as a tool to assess different intervention measures in order to diminish the impact of disruptive conditions in the air transport system.

  13. Bulk meteorological parameters for diagnosing cloudiness in the stochastic cloud forecast model

    OpenAIRE

    Leach, Ryan N.

    2006-01-01

    The three dimensional distribution of clouds is of great interest to the Air Force, and to the aviation community in general. The Stochastic Cloud Forecast Model (SCFM) is a novel, global cloud model currently operated at the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) which diagnoses cloud cover statistically using a minimal set of predictors from global numerical forecasts. Currently the four predictors are pressure, temperature, vertical velocity, and relative humidity. In this thesis, 330 sets of...

  14. Mesoscale modeling study of the interactions between aerosols and PBL meteorology during a haze episode in China Jing–Jin–Ji and its near surrounding region – Part 1: Aerosol distributions and meteorological features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wang

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The urbanized region of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei – often shortened to Jing–Jin–Ji and referred to as the 3JNS region in this paper – and its near surrounding region is becoming China's most polluted area by haze, exceeding even the Yangtze and Pearl river deltas. Aside from pollutant emission, the meteorology of the planetary boundary layer (PBL is the most important factor affecting haze pollution. Focusing on July 2008, the aerosol optical properties and PBL meteorology features closely related with haze formation were simulated in 3JNS region using an online atmospheric chemical transport model. The relationship between regional PBL meteorology, PM2.5, and haze is discussed. Model results accurately simulated the aerosol optical depth (AOD, single scattering albedo (SSA and asymmetry parameter (ASY, validate by comparison with observations from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, the China Aerosol Remote Sensing NETwork (CARSNET and the Aerosol Robotic NETwork (AERONET. Modeled PBL wind speeds showed reasonable agreement with those from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP Reanalysis 2. A monthly mean AOD value as high as 1.2 was found from both model and observations, with a daily mean larger than 2.0 during haze episodes in the 3JNS Region. Modeled and observed SSA values of 0.9–0.96 and ASY values of 0.72–0.74 demonstrated the high scattering characteristic of summer aerosols in this region. PBL wind speeds from modeled and NCEP data both showed a reversing trend of PM2.5 variation, illustrating the importance of the "PBL window shadow" on haze formation. Turbulence diffusion and PBL height showed had opposite phases to surface PM2.5, indicating that lower PBL height and weaker PBL turbulence diffusion are essential to haze formation. It is noted that homogeneous air pressure does not occur at the surface but at an 85–950 hPa height during the haze episode. The momentum transmitting

  15. Improving NPP availability using thermalhydraulic integral plant models. Assessment and application of turbine run back scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reventos, F. [ANACNV, l' Hospitalet de l' Infant, Tarragona (Spain)]|[Technical University of Catalonia, UPC (Spain); Llopis, C.; Pretel, C. [Technical University of Catalonia, UPC (Spain); Posada, J.M.; Moreno, P. [Pablo Moreno S.A. (Spain)

    2001-07-01

    ANAV is the utility responsible of Asco and Vandellos Nuclear Power Plants, a two-unit and a single unit 1000 MW PWR plant, respectively. Both plants, Asco and Vandellos, are in normal operation since 1983 and 1987 and have undergone different important improvements like: steam generators and turbine substitution, power up-rating... Best estimate simulation by means of the thermal-hydraulic integral models of operating nuclear power plants are today impressively helpful for utilities in their purpose of improving availability and keeping safety level. ANAV is currently using Relap5/mod3.2 models of both plants for different purposes related to safety, operation, engineering and training. Turbine run-back system is designed to avoid reactor trips, and it does so in the existing plants, when the key parameters are correctly adjusted. The fine adjustment of such parameters was traditionally performed following the results of control simulators. Such simulators used a fully developed set of control equations and a quite simplified thermal-hydraulic feed-back. Boundary scenarios were considered in order to overcome the difficulties generated by simplification. (author)

  16. A comparative analysis of three vector-borne diseases across Australia using seasonal and meteorological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stratton, Margaret D.; Ehrlich, Hanna Y.; Mor, Siobhan M.; Naumova, Elena N.

    2017-01-01

    Ross River virus (RRV), Barmah Forest virus (BFV), and dengue are three common mosquito-borne diseases in Australia that display notable seasonal patterns. Although all three diseases have been modeled on localized scales, no previous study has used harmonic models to compare seasonality of mosquito-borne diseases on a continent-wide scale. We fit Poisson harmonic regression models to surveillance data on RRV, BFV, and dengue (from 1993, 1995 and 1991, respectively, through 2015) incorporating seasonal, trend, and climate (temperature and rainfall) parameters. The models captured an average of 50-65% variability of the data. Disease incidence for all three diseases generally peaked in January or February, but peak timing was most variable for dengue. The most significant predictor parameters were trend and inter-annual periodicity for BFV, intra-annual periodicity for RRV, and trend for dengue. We found that a Temperature Suitability Index (TSI), designed to reclassify climate data relative to optimal conditions for vector establishment, could be applied to this context. Finally, we extrapolated our models to estimate the impact of a false-positive BFV epidemic in 2013. Creating these models and comparing variations in periodicities may provide insight into historical outbreaks as well as future patterns of mosquito-borne diseases.

  17. A comparative analysis of three vector-borne diseases across Australia using seasonal and meteorological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stratton, Margaret D.; Ehrlich, Hanna Y.; Mor, Siobhan M.; Naumova, Elena N.

    2017-01-01

    Ross River virus (RRV), Barmah Forest virus (BFV), and dengue are three common mosquito-borne diseases in Australia that display notable seasonal patterns. Although all three diseases have been modeled on localized scales, no previous study has used harmonic models to compare seasonality of mosquito-borne diseases on a continent-wide scale. We fit Poisson harmonic regression models to surveillance data on RRV, BFV, and dengue (from 1993, 1995 and 1991, respectively, through 2015) incorporating seasonal, trend, and climate (temperature and rainfall) parameters. The models captured an average of 50–65% variability of the data. Disease incidence for all three diseases generally peaked in January or February, but peak timing was most variable for dengue. The most significant predictor parameters were trend and inter-annual periodicity for BFV, intra-annual periodicity for RRV, and trend for dengue. We found that a Temperature Suitability Index (TSI), designed to reclassify climate data relative to optimal conditions for vector establishment, could be applied to this context. Finally, we extrapolated our models to estimate the impact of a false-positive BFV epidemic in 2013. Creating these models and comparing variations in periodicities may provide insight into historical outbreaks as well as future patterns of mosquito-borne diseases. PMID:28071683

  18. Evaluation of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with temperature extremes in the NARCCAP regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loikith, Paul C.; Waliser, Duane E.; Lee, Huikyo; Neelin, J. David; Lintner, Benjamin R.; McGinnis, Seth; Mearns, Linda O.; Kim, Jinwon

    2015-12-01

    Large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with temperature extremes are evaluated in a suite of regional climate model (RCM) simulations contributing to the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. LSMPs are characterized through composites of surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies concurrent with extreme temperature days. Six of the seventeen RCM simulations are driven by boundary conditions from reanalysis while the other eleven are driven by one of four global climate models (GCMs). Four illustrative case studies are analyzed in detail. Model fidelity in LSMP spatial representation is high for cold winter extremes near Chicago. Winter warm extremes are captured by most RCMs in northern California, with some notable exceptions. Model fidelity is lower for cool summer days near Houston and extreme summer heat events in the Ohio Valley. Physical interpretation of these patterns and identification of well-simulated cases, such as for Chicago, boosts confidence in the ability of these models to simulate days in the tails of the temperature distribution. Results appear consistent with the expectation that the ability of an RCM to reproduce a realistically shaped frequency distribution for temperature, especially at the tails, is related to its fidelity in simulating LMSPs. Each ensemble member is ranked for its ability to reproduce LSMPs associated with observed warm and cold extremes, identifying systematically high performing RCMs and the GCMs that provide superior boundary forcing. The methodology developed here provides a framework for identifying regions where further process-based evaluation would improve the understanding of simulation error and help guide future model improvement and downscaling efforts.

  19. Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in Norway based on two methods for transferring regional climate model results to meteorological station sites

    OpenAIRE

    Beldring, Stein; Engen-Skaugen, Torill; Førland, Eirik J.; Roald, Lars A.

    2008-01-01

    Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in Norway have been estimated through combination of results from the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios, global climate models from the Hadley Centre and the Max-Planck Institute, and dynamical downscaling using the RegClim HIRHAM regional climate model. Temperature and precipitation simulations from the regional climate model were transferred to meteorological station sites using two different approaches, the delta change or perturbation ...

  20. Entrainment rate diurnal cycle in marine stratiform clouds estimated from geostationary satellite retrievals and a meteorological forecast model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Painemal, David; Xu, Kuan-Man; Palikonda, Rabindra; Minnis, Patrick

    2017-07-01

    The mean diurnal cycle of cloud entrainment rate (we) over the northeast Pacific region is for the first time computed by combining, in a mixed-layer model framework, the hourly composited GOES-15 satellite-based cloud top height (HT) tendency, advection, and large-scale vertical velocity (w) during May to September 2013, with horizontal winds and w taken from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. The tendency term dominates the magnitude and phase of the we diurnal cycle, with a secondary role of w, and a modest advective contribution. The peak and minimum in we occur between 20:00-22:00 LT and 9:00-11:00 LT, respectively, in close agreement with the diurnal cycle of turbulence driven by cloud top longwave cooling. Uncertainties in HT and ECMWF fields are assessed with in situ observations and three meteorological reanalysis data sets. This study provides the basis for constructing nearly global climatologies of we by combining a suite of well-calibrated geostationary satellites.

  1. Forecast of surface layer meteorological parameters at Cerro Paranal with a mesoscale atmospherical model

    CERN Document Server

    Lascaux, Franck; Fini, Luca

    2015-01-01

    This article aims at proving the feasibility of the forecast of all the most relevant classical atmospherical parameters for astronomical applications (wind speed and direction, temperature) above the ESO ground-base site of Cerro Paranal with a mesoscale atmospherical model called Meso-Nh. In a precedent paper we have preliminarily treated the model performances obtained in reconstructing some key atmospherical parameters in the surface layer 0-30~m studying the bias and the RMSE on a statistical sample of 20 nights. Results were very encouraging and it appeared therefore mandatory to confirm such a good result on a much richer statistical sample. In this paper, the study was extended to a total sample of 129 nights between 2007 and 2011 distributed in different parts of the solar year. This large sample made our analysis more robust and definitive in terms of the model performances and permitted us to confirm the excellent performances of the model. Besides, we present an independent analysis of the model p...

  2. Description of Atmospheric Conditions at the Pierre Auger Observatory Using Meteorological Measurements and Models

    CERN Document Server

    Keilhauer, Bianca

    2012-01-01

    Atmospheric conditions at the site of a cosmic ray observatory must be known well for reconstructing observed extensive air showers, especially when measured using the fluorescence technique. For the Pierre Auger Observatory, a sophisticated network of atmospheric monitoring devices has been conceived. Part of this monitoring was a weather balloon program to measure atmospheric state variables above the Observatory. To use the data in reconstructions of air showers, monthly models have been constructed. Scheduled balloon launches were abandoned and replaced with launches triggered by high-energetic air showers as part of a rapid monitoring system. Currently, the balloon launch program is halted and atmospheric data from numerical weather prediction models are used. A description of the balloon measurements, the monthly models as well as the data from the numerical weather prediction are presented.

  3. Modelling the water and heat balances of the Mediterranean Sea using a two-basin model and available meteorological, hydrological, and ocean data

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a two-basin model of the water and heat balances of the Western and Eastern Mediterranean sub-basins (WMB and EMB, respectively) over the 1958–2010 period using available meteorological and hydrological data. The results indicate that the simulated temperature and salinity in both studied Mediterranean sub-basins closely follow the reanalysed data. In addition, simulated surface water in the EMB had a higher mean temperature (by approximately 1.6°C) and was more saline (by...

  4. Can a coupled meteorology-chemistry model reproduce the historical trend in aerosol direct radiative effects over the Northern Hemisphere?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Xing

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The ability of a coupled meteorology-chemistry model, i.e., WRF-CMAQ, in reproducing the historical trend in AOD and clear-sky short-wave radiation (SWR over the Northern Hemisphere has been evaluated through a comparison of 21 year simulated results with observation-derived records from 1990–2010. Six satellite retrieved AOD products including AVHRR, TOMS, SeaWiFS, MISR, MODIS-terra and -aqua as well as long-term historical records from 11 AERONET sites were used for the comparison of AOD trends. Clear-sky SWR products derived by CERES at both TOA and surface as well as surface SWR data derived from seven SURFRAD sites were used for the comparison of trends in SWR. The model successfully captured increasing AOD trends along with the corresponding increased TOA SWR (upwelling and decreased surface SWR (downwelling in both eastern China and the northern Pacific. The model also captured declining AOD trends along with the corresponding decreased TOA SWR (upwelling and increased surface SWR (downwelling in eastern US, Europe and northern Atlantic for the period of 2000–2010. However, the model underestimated the AOD over regions with substantial natural dust aerosol contributions, such as the Sahara Desert, Arabian Desert, central Atlantic and north Indian Ocean. Estimates of aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE at TOA are comparable with those derived by measurements. Compared to GCMs, the model exhibits better estimates of surface- aerosol direct radiative efficiency (Eτ. However, surface-DRE tends to be underestimated due to the underestimated AOD in land and dust regions. Further investigation of TOA-Eτ estimations as well as the dust module used for estimates of windblown-dust emissions is needed.

  5. Assessing the debris flow run-out frequency of a catchment in the French Alps using a parameterization analysis with the RAMMS numerical run-out model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hussin, Y.A.; Quan Luna, B.; Van Westen, C.J.; Christen, M.; Malet, J.P.; Asch, Th.W.J. van

    2012-01-01

    Debris flows occurring in the European Alps frequently cause significant damage to settlements, power-lines and transportation infrastructure which has led to traffic disruptions, economic loss and even death. Estimating the debris flow run-out extent and the parameter uncertainty related to run-out

  6. The Evolutionary Modeling and Short-range Climatic Prediction for Meteorological Element Time Series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Kangqing; ZHOU Yuehua; YANG Jing'an; KANG Zhuo

    2005-01-01

    The time series of precipitation in flood season (May-September) at Wuhan Station, which is set as an example of the kind of time series with chaos characters, is split into two parts: One includes macro climatic timescale period waves that are affected by some relatively steady climatic factors such as astronomical factors (sunspot, etc.), some other known and/or unknown factors, and the other includes micro climatic timescale period waves superimposed on the macro one. The evolutionary modeling (EM), which develops from genetic programming (GP), is supposed to be adept at simulating the former part because it creates the nonlinear ordinary differential equation (NODE) based upon the data series. The natural fractals (NF)are used to simulate the latter part. The final prediction is the sum of results from both methods, thus the model can reflect multi-time scale effects of forcing factors in the climate system. The results of this example for 2002 and 2003 are satisfactory for climatic prediction operation. The NODE can suggest that the data vary with time, which is beneficial to think over short-range climatic analysis and prediction. Comparison in principle between evolutionary modeling and linear modeling indicates that the evolutionary one is a better way to simulate the complex time series with nonlinear characteristics.

  7. Modeling Rain-fed Wheat and Barley based on Meteorological Features and Drought Indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mosaedi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Weather features and their variations have an important role in the yield of agricultural products, especially in rain-fed conditions. The main metrological variables that affected yields consist of precipitation, temperature, soil moisture and solar radiation. Also, drought is one of the major constraints to production, especially the mid-season drought which occurs during the podand seed formation stages and the terminal drought which occurs during the pod filling stage. The results of investigating the relation between drought indices such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI, Crop Moisture index (CMI and Z index with crop yields indicated the capability of these indices to estimate variations in crop yields. The objective of this study in the first step is investigation of relations among wheat and barley crop yields with climatic variables and SPI and RDI drought indices based on Principle Component Analysis (PCA method at Bojnourd, Mashhad and Birjand stations. In addition, by selecting the prominent variables via PCA method, the best models of estimating each crop’s yield based on multivariate regression methods at selected stations were determined. Materials and Methods: In this study, the relationship between yields of rain-fed wheat and barley with weather variables consisting of minimum, mean and maximum temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and drought indices including SPI and RDI were investigated and modeled at Bojnourd, Mashhad and Birjand stations. For this purpose, the values of each variable were calculated for 34 time scales of 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 9 months and wet periods (nine 1-month periods, eight 2- month periods, seven 3- month periods, six 4- month periods, two 6- month periods, one wet period (5 or 7-month and one 9-month period. After that, the main influencing variables were chosen among investigated time periods for each variable by using the method

  8. Assessing the impact of local meteorological variables on surface ozone in Hong Kong during 2000-2015 using quantile and multiple line regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wei; Fan, Shaojia; Guo, Hai; Gao, Bo; Sun, Jiaren; Chen, Laiguo

    2016-11-01

    The quantile regression (QR) method has been increasingly introduced to atmospheric environmental studies to explore the non-linear relationship between local meteorological conditions and ozone mixing ratios. In this study, we applied QR for the first time, together with multiple linear regression (MLR), to analyze the dominant meteorological parameters influencing the mean, 10th percentile, 90th percentile and 99th percentile of maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in 2000-2015 in Hong Kong. The dominance analysis (DA) was used to assess the relative importance of meteorological variables in the regression models. Results showed that the MLR models worked better at suburban and rural sites than at urban sites, and worked better in winter than in summer. QR models performed better in summer for 99th and 90th percentiles and performed better in autumn and winter for 10th percentile. And QR models also performed better in suburban and rural areas for 10th percentile. The top 3 dominant variables associated with MDA8 ozone concentrations, changing with seasons and regions, were frequently associated with the six meteorological parameters: boundary layer height, humidity, wind direction, surface solar radiation, total cloud cover and sea level pressure. Temperature rarely became a significant variable in any season, which could partly explain the peak of monthly average ozone concentrations in October in Hong Kong. And we found the effect of solar radiation would be enhanced during extremely ozone pollution episodes (i.e., the 99th percentile). Finally, meteorological effects on MDA8 ozone had no significant changes before and after the 2010 Asian Games.

  9. Effects of independently altering body weight and mass on the energetic cost of a human running model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, Jeffrey; Seipel, Justin

    2016-03-21

    The mechanisms underlying the metabolic cost of running, and legged locomotion in general, remain to be well understood. Prior experimental studies show that the metabolic cost of human running correlates well with the vertical force generated to support body weight, the mechanical work done, and changes in the effective leg stiffness. Further, previous work shows that the metabolic cost of running decreases with decreasing body weight, increases with increasing body weight and mass, and does not significantly change with changing body mass alone. In the present study, we seek to uncover the basic mechanism underlying this existing experimental data. We find that an actuated spring-mass mechanism representing the effective mechanics of human running provides a mechanistic explanation for the previously reported changes in the metabolic cost of human running if the dimensionless relative leg stiffness (effective stiffness normalized by body weight and leg length) is regulated to be constant. The model presented in this paper provides a mechanical explanation for the changes in metabolic cost due to changing body weight and mass which have been previously measured experimentally and highlights the importance of active leg stiffness regulation during human running.

  10. Statistical Model for Meteorological Elements Based on Local Radiosonde Measurements in Mediterranean Region

    CERN Document Server

    Virtser, A; Shtemler, Yu M

    2007-01-01

    A comprehensive statistical model is developed for vertical profiles of the horizontal wind and temperature throughout the troposphere based on several-years radiosonde measurements of strong winds. The profiles measured under quite different atmospheric conditions exhibit qualitative similarity. A proper choice of the reference scales for the wind, temperature and altitude levels allow us to consider the measurement data as realizations of a random process with universal characteristics: means, the basic functions and parameters of standard distributions for transform coefficients of the Principal Component Analysis. The features of the atmospheric conditions are described by statistical characteristics of the wind-temperature ensemble of dimensional reference scales. The model can be useful for air pollution and safety in high-risk areas such as chemical and nuclear plants.

  11. An exploration of measures for comparing measurements with the results from meteorological models for Mexico City

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, M.D.; Brown, M.J.

    1995-12-31

    Los Alamos National Laboratory and Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo have completed a joint study of options for improving air quality in Mexico City. We used a three-dimensional, prognostic, higher-order turbulence model for atmospheric circulation (HOTMAC) to treat domains that include an urbanized area. We tested the model against routine measurements and those of a major field program. During the field program, measurements included: (1) lidar measurements of aerosol transport and dispersion, (2) aircraft measurements of winds, turbulence, and chemical species aloft, (3) aircraft measurements of skin temperatures, and (4) Tethersonde measurements of winds and ozone. We made both graphical and statistical comparisons and we have reported some of the comparisons to provide insight into the meaning of statistical parameters including the index of agreement.

  12. Snowpack modelling in the Pyrenees driven by kilometric-resolution meteorological forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quéno, Louis; Vionnet, Vincent; Dombrowski-Etchevers, Ingrid; Lafaysse, Matthieu; Dumont, Marie; Karbou, Fatima

    2016-07-01

    Distributed snowpack simulations in the French and Spanish Pyrenees are carried out using the detailed snowpack model Crocus driven by the numerical weather prediction system AROME at 2.5 km grid spacing, during four consecutive winters from 2010 to 2014. The aim of this study is to assess the benefits of a kilometric-resolution atmospheric forcing to a snowpack model for describing the spatial variability of the seasonal snow cover over a mountain range. The evaluation is performed by comparisons to ground-based measurements of the snow depth, the snow water equivalent and precipitations, to satellite snow cover images and to snowpack simulations driven by the SAFRAN analysis system. Snow depths simulated by AROME-Crocus exhibit an overall positive bias, particularly marked over the first summits near the Atlantic Ocean. The simulation of mesoscale orographic effects by AROME gives a realistic regional snowpack variability, unlike SAFRAN-Crocus. The categorical study of daily snow depth variations gives a differentiated perspective of accumulation and ablation processes. Both models underestimate strong snow accumulations and strong snow depth decreases, which is mainly due to the non-simulated wind-induced erosion, the underestimation of strong melting and an insufficient settling after snowfalls. The problematic assimilation of precipitation gauge measurements is also emphasized, which raises the issue of a need for a dedicated analysis to complement the benefits of AROME kilometric resolution and dynamical behaviour in mountainous terrain.

  13. Joint meteorological and hydrological drought model: a management tool for proactive water resources planning of semi-arid regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modaresi Rad, Arash; Ahmadi Ardakani, Samira; Ghahremani, Zahra; Ghahreman, Bijan; Khalili, Davar

    2016-04-01

    Conventionally drought analysis has been limited to single drought category. Utilization of models incorporating multiple drought categories, can relax this limitation. A copula-based model is proposed, which uses meteorological and hydrological drought indices to assess drought events for ultimate management of water resources, at small scales, i.e., sub-watersheds. The study area is a sub basin located at Karkheh watershed (western Iran), utilizing 41-year data of 4 raingauge stations and one hydrometric station located upstream and at the outlet respectively. Prior to drought analysis, time series of precipitation and streamflow records are investigated for possible dependency/significant trend. Considering the semi-arid nature of the study area, boxplots are utilized to graphically capture the rainy months, which used to evaluate the degree of correlation between streamflow and precipitation records via nonparametric correlations and bivariate tail dependence. Time scales of 3- and 12-month are considered, which are used to study vulnerability of early vegetation establishment and long-term ecosystem resilience, respectively. Among four common goodness of fit tests, the Cramér-von-Mises is found preferable for defining copula distribution functions through Akaike & Bayesian information criteria and coefficient of determination. Furthermore the uncertainty associated with different copula models is measured using the concept of entropy. A new bivariate drought modeling approach is proposed through copulas. The proposed index, named standardized precipitation-streamflow index (SPSI) is compared with two separate indices of streamflow drought index (SDI) and standardized precipitation index (SPI). According to results, the SPSI could detect onset of droughts dominated by precipitation as is similarly indicated by SPI index. It also captures discordant case of normal period precipitation with dry period streamflow and vice versa. Finally, combination of severity

  14. Influence of low-altitude meteorological conditions on local infrasound propagation investigated by 3-D full-waveform modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Keehoon; Rodgers, Arthur

    2017-08-01

    Vertical stratification in the low atmosphere impacts near-ground sound propagation. On clear days, for example, negative gradients of low-atmospheric temperature can lead to upward refraction of acoustic waves and create a zone of silence near the ground, where no acoustic rays can arrive. We investigate impacts of lower tropospheric temperature and wind-velocity gradient on acoustic wave propagation using numerical simulations. Sound refraction in the atmosphere is a frequency-dependent wave phenomenon, and therefore classical ray methods based on infinite-frequency approximation may not be suitable for modeling acoustic wave amplitudes. In this study, a full-waveform acoustic solver was used to predict amplitudes of acoustic waves taking into account meteorological conditions (temperature, pressure and wind). Local radiosonde sounding data were input into acoustic simulations to characterize the background conditions of the local atmosphere. The results of numerical modeling indicate that acoustic overpressure amplitudes were significantly affected by local atmospheric wind speed and direction near the ground. Local wind changes the effective sound speed profile in the atmosphere and influences overpressure amplitude decay governed by upward refraction. We compared 3-D finite-difference modeling results with acoustic overpressure measurements from the Humming Roadrunner explosion experiments conducted in New Mexico in 2012. The modeling results showed good agreement with the observations in peak amplitudes when a background wind was weak and well characterized by local atmospheric data. However, when a strong wind was present at an explosion and its variability was poorly characterized by local radiosonde sounding, the numerical prediction of local acoustic amplitude agreed poorly with the observations. Additional numerical simulations with the inclusion of surface wind data indicate that local acoustic amplitudes could be significantly variable depending on

  15. Making OGC standards work - interoperability testing between meteorological web services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siemen, Stephan; Little, Chris; Voidrot, Marie-Françoise

    2015-04-01

    The Meteorology and Oceanography Domain Working Group (Met Ocean DWG) is a community orientated working group of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). The group does not directly revise OGC standards, but rather enables collaboration and communication between groups with meteorological and oceanographic interests. The Met Ocean DWG maintains a list of topics of interest to the meteorological and oceanographic communities for discussion, prioritises activities, defining feedback to the OGC Standards Working Groups (SWG), and performing interoperability experiments. One of the activities of the MetOcean DWG is the definition of Best Practices documents for common OGC standards, such as WMS and WCS. This is necessary since meteorological data has additional complexities in time, elevation and multi models runs including ensembles. To guarantee interoperability in practice it is important to test each other systems and ensure standards are implemented correctly, but also make recommendations to the DWG on the establishment of Best Practices guides. The European Working Group on Operational meteorological Workstations (EGOWS) was founded in 1990 as an informal forum for people working in the development field of operational meteorological workstations. The annual EGOWS meeting offers an excellent platform for exchanging information and furthering co-operation among the experts from NMS's, ECMWF and other institutes in the work with OGC standards. The presentation will give an update of the testing, which was being done during the June 2014 EGOWS meeting in Oslo and what has happen since. The presenter will also give an overview of the online resources to follow the tests and how interested parties can contribute to future interoperability tests.

  16. Spatio-temporal modeling of particulate air pollution in the conterminous United States using geographic and meteorological predictors

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Exposure to atmospheric particulate matter (PM) remains an important public health concern, although it remains difficult to quantify accurately across large geographic areas with sufficiently high spatial resolution. Recent epidemiologic analyses have demonstrated the importance of spatially- and temporally-resolved exposure estimates, which show larger PM-mediated health effects as compared to nearest monitor or county-specific ambient concentrations. Methods We developed generalized additive mixed models that describe regional and small-scale spatial and temporal gradients (and corresponding uncertainties) in monthly mass concentrations of fine (PM2.5), inhalable (PM10), and coarse mode particle mass (PM2.5–10) for the conterminous United States (U.S.). These models expand our previously developed models for the Northeastern and Midwestern U.S. by virtue of their larger spatial domain, their inclusion of an additional 5 years of PM data to develop predictions through 2007, and their use of refined geographic covariates for population density and point-source PM emissions. Covariate selection and model validation were performed using 10-fold cross-validation (CV). Results The PM2.5 models had high predictive accuracy (CV R2=0.77 for both 1988–1998 and 1999–2007). While model performance remained strong, the predictive ability of models for PM10 (CV R2=0.58 for both 1988–1998 and 1999–2007) and PM2.5–10 (CV R2=0.46 and 0.52 for 1988–1998 and 1999–2007, respectively) was somewhat lower. Regional variation was found in the effects of geographic and meteorological covariates. Models generally performed well in both urban and rural areas and across seasons, though predictive performance varied somewhat by region (CV R2=0.81, 0.81, 0.83, 0.72, 0.69, 0.50, and 0.60 for the Northeast, Midwest, Southeast, Southcentral, Southwest, Northwest, and Central Plains regions, respectively, for PM2.5 from 1999–2007). Conclusions Our models provide

  17. Predictive Skill of Meteorological Drought Based on Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts: A Real-Time Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, L. C.; Mo, K. C.; Zhang, Q.; Huang, J.

    2014-12-01

    Drought prediction from monthly to seasonal time scales is of critical importance to disaster mitigation, agricultural planning, and multi-purpose reservoir management. Starting in December 2012, NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has been providing operational Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Outlooks using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts, to support CPC's monthly drought outlooks and briefing activities. The current NMME system consists of six model forecasts from U.S. and Canada modeling centers, including the CFSv2, CM2.1, GEOS-5, CCSM3.0, CanCM3, and CanCM4 models. In this study, we conduct an assessment of the predictive skill of meteorological drought using real-time NMME forecasts for the period from May 2012 to May 2014. The ensemble SPI forecasts are the equally weighted mean of the six model forecasts. Two performance measures, the anomaly correlation coefficient and root-mean-square errors against the observations, are used to evaluate forecast skill.Similar to the assessment based on NMME retrospective forecasts, predictive skill of monthly-mean precipitation (P) forecasts is generally low after the second month and errors vary among models. Although P forecast skill is not large, SPI predictive skill is high and the differences among models are small. The skill mainly comes from the P observations appended to the model forecasts. This factor also contributes to the similarity of SPI prediction among the six models. Still, NMME SPI ensemble forecasts have higher skill than those based on individual models or persistence, and the 6-month SPI forecasts are skillful out to four months. The three major drought events occurred during the 2012-2014 period, the 2012 Central Great Plains drought, the 2013 Upper Midwest flash drought, and 2013-2014 California drought, are used as examples to illustrate the system's strength and limitations. For precipitation-driven drought events, such as the 2012 Central Great Plains drought

  18. Recent updates in the aerosol component of the C-IFS model run by ECMWF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remy, Samuel; Boucher, Olivier; Hauglustaine, Didier; Kipling, Zak; Flemming, Johannes

    2017-04-01

    The Composition-Integrated Forecast System (C-IFS) is a global atmospheric composition forecasting tool, run by ECMWF within the framework of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). The aerosol model of C-IFS is a simple bulk scheme that forecasts 5 species: dust, sea-salt, black carbon, organic matter and sulfate. Three bins represent the dust and sea-salt, for the super-coarse, coarse and fine mode of these species (Morcrette et al., 2009). This talk will present recent updates of the aerosol model, and also introduce forthcoming developments. It will also present the impact of these changes as measured scores against AERONET Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Airbase PM10 observations. The next cycle of C-IFS will include a mass fixer, because the semi-Lagrangian advection scheme used in C-IFS is not mass-conservative. C-IFS now offers the possibility to emit biomass-burning aerosols at an injection height that is provided by a new version of the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS). Secondary Organic Aerosols (SOA) production will be scaled on non-biomass burning CO fluxes. This approach allows to represent the anthropogenic contribution to SOA production; it brought a notable improvement in the skill of the model, especially over Europe. Lastly, the emissions of SO2 are now provided by the MACCity inventory instead of and older version of the EDGAR dataset. The seasonal and yearly variability of SO2 emissions are better captured by the MACCity dataset. Upcoming developments of the aerosol model of C-IFS consist mainly in the implementation of a nitrate and ammonium module, with 2 bins (fine and coarse) for nitrate. Nitrate and ammonium sulfate particle formation from gaseous precursors is represented following Hauglustaine et al. (2014); formation of coarse nitrate over pre-existing sea-salt or dust particles is also represented. This extension of the forward model improved scores over heavily populated areas such as Europe, China and Eastern

  19. Numerical weather prediction models and SAR interferometry: synergic use for meteorological and INSAR applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierdicca, Nazzareno; Rocca, Fabio; Perissin, Daniele; Ferretti, Rossella; Pichelli, Emanuela; Rommen, Bjorn; Cimini, Nico

    2011-11-01

    Spaceborne Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is a well established technique useful in many land applications, such as landslide monitoring and digital elevation model extraction. One of its major limitation is the atmospheric effect, and in particular the high water vapour spatial and temporal variability which introduces an unknown delay in the signal propagation. However, the sensitivity of SAR interferometric phase to atmospheric conditions could in principle be exploited and InSAR could become in certain conditions a tool to monitor the atmosphere, as it happens with GPS receiver networks. This paper describes a novel attempt to assimilate InSAR derived information on the atmosphere, based on the Permanent Scatterer multipass technique, into a numerical weather forecast model. The methodology is summarised and the very preliminary results regarding the forecast of a precipitation event in Central Italy are analysed. The work was done in the framework of an ESA funded project devoted to the mapping of the water vapour with the aim to mitigate its effect for InSAR applications.

  20. Atmosphere model on the area of GBAS system for real-time GNSS and meteorological applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosy, J.; Rohm, W.; Kaplon, J.; Sierny, J.; IGG WUE & LS; GNSS Meteorology Team

    2011-12-01

    Satellite altimetry over the last two decades has measured variations in geocentric sea level (GSL), relative to the Earth system center of mass, providing valuable data to test models of physical oceanography and the effects of global climate change. The societal impacts of sea level change however relate to variations in local sea level (LSL), relative to the land at the coast. Therefore, assessing the impacts of sea level change requires coastal measurements of vertical land motion (VLM). Indeed, ΔLSL = ΔGSL - ΔVLM, with subsidence mapping 1:1 into LSL. Measurements of secular coastal VLM also allow tide-gauge data to test models of GSL over the last century in some locations, which cannot be provided by satellite data. Here we use GPS geodetic data within 15 km of the US west coast to infer regional, secular VLM. A total of 89 GPS stations met the criteria that time series span >4.5 yr, and do not have obvious non-linear variation, as may be caused by local instability. VLM rates for the GPS stations are derived in the secular reference frame ITRF2008, which aligns with the Earth system center of mass to ×0.5 mm/yr. We find that regional VLM has different behavior north and south of the Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ). The California coast has a coherent regional pattern of subsidence averaging 0.5 mm/yr, with an increasing trend to the north. This trend generally matches GIA model predictions. Around San Francisco Bay, the observed coastal subsidence of 1.0 mm/yr coherently decreases moving away from the Pacific Ocean to very small subsidence on the east shores of the bay. This gradient is likely caused by San Andreas-Hayward Fault tectonics, and possibly by differential surface loading across the bay and Sacramento-San Joachim River Delta. Thus in addition to the trend in subsidence from GIA going northward along the California coast, tectonics may also play a role where the plate boundary fault system approaches the coast. In contrast, we find that VLM

  1. Quantitative assessment of changes in landslide risk using a regional scale run-out model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussin, Haydar; Chen, Lixia; Ciurean, Roxana; van Westen, Cees; Reichenbach, Paola; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2015-04-01

    The risk of landslide hazard continuously changes in time and space and is rarely a static or constant phenomena in an affected area. However one of the main challenges of quantitatively assessing changes in landslide risk is the availability of multi-temporal data for the different components of risk. Furthermore, a truly "quantitative" landslide risk analysis requires the modeling of the landslide intensity (e.g. flow depth, velocities or impact pressures) affecting the elements at risk. Such a quantitative approach is often lacking in medium to regional scale studies in the scientific literature or is left out altogether. In this research we modelled the temporal and spatial changes of debris flow risk in a narrow alpine valley in the North Eastern Italian Alps. The debris flow inventory from 1996 to 2011 and multi-temporal digital elevation models (DEMs) were used to assess the susceptibility of debris flow triggering areas and to simulate debris flow run-out using the Flow-R regional scale model. In order to determine debris flow intensities, we used a linear relationship that was found between back calibrated physically based Flo-2D simulations (local scale models of five debris flows from 2003) and the probability values of the Flow-R software. This gave us the possibility to assign flow depth to a total of 10 separate classes on a regional scale. Debris flow vulnerability curves from the literature and one curve specifically for our case study area were used to determine the damage for different material and building types associated with the elements at risk. The building values were obtained from the Italian Revenue Agency (Agenzia delle Entrate) and were classified per cadastral zone according to the Real Estate Observatory data (Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare, Agenzia Entrate - OMI). The minimum and maximum market value for each building was obtained by multiplying the corresponding land-use value (€/msq) with building area and number of floors

  2. Multiple-step model-experiment matching allows precise definition of dynamical leg parameters in human running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, C; Grimmer, S; Seyfarth, A; Maus, H-M

    2012-09-21

    The spring-loaded inverted pendulum (SLIP) model is a well established model for describing bouncy gaits like human running. The notion of spring-like leg behavior has led many researchers to compute the corresponding parameters, predominantly stiffness, in various experimental setups and in various ways. However, different methods yield different results, making the comparison between studies difficult. Further, a model simulation with experimentally obtained leg parameters typically results in comparatively large differences between model and experimental center of mass trajectories. Here, we pursue the opposite approach which is calculating model parameters that allow reproduction of an experimental sequence of steps. In addition, to capture energy fluctuations, an extension of the SLIP (ESLIP) is required and presented. The excellent match of the models with the experiment validates the description of human running by the SLIP with the obtained parameters which we hence call dynamical leg parameters.

  3. Arctic hydrology and meteorology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kane, D.L.

    1990-01-01

    During 1990, we have continued our meteorological and hydrologic data collection in support of our process-oriented research. The six years of data collected to data is unique in its scope and continuity in a North Hemisphere Arctic setting. This valuable data base has allowed us to further our understanding of the interconnections and interactions between the atmosphere/hydrosphere/biosphere/lithosphere. The increased understanding of the heat and mass transfer processes has allowed us to increase our model-oriented research efforts.

  4. Influence of different meteorological datasets and emission inventories on modeled fire aerosol abundance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hsiang-He; Bar-Or, Rotem; Wang, Chien

    2017-04-01

    Fires including peatland burning in Southeast Asia have become a major concern to the general public as well as governments in the region. This is because aerosols emitted from such fires can cause persistent haze events under certain weather conditions in downwind locations, degrading visibility and causing human health issues. In order to improve our understanding of the spatialtemporal coverage and influence of biomass burning aerosols in Southeast Asia, we have used surface visibility and particulate matter concentration observations, supplemented by decadal long (2003 to 2014) simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a fire aerosol module, driven by high-resolution biomass burning emission inventories. We find that in the past decade, fire aerosols are responsible for nearly all the events with very low visibility (aerosols alone are also responsible for a substantial fraction of the low visibility events (visibility aerosol concentration and visibility, especially in Bangkok and Singapore. For instance, the contribution to fire aerosol in Singapore from northern Australia changes from nearly zero in the simulation driven by FINNv1.5 to about 22% in another simulation driven by GFEDv4.1s. Based on these results, we suggest further research is needed to improve the current estimate of the spatiotemporal distribution of fire emissions, in addition to total emitted quantities from the fire hotspots.

  5. Wind Power Energy in Southern Brazil: evaluation using a mesoscale meteorological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krusche, Nisia; Stoevesandt, Bernhard; Chang, Chi-Yao; Peralta, Carlos

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, several wind farms were build in the coast of Rio Grande do Sul state. This region of Brazil was identified, in wind energy studies, as most favorable to the development of wind power energy, along with the Northeast part of the country. Site assessments of wind power, over long periods to estimate the power production and forecasts over short periods can be used for planning of power distribution and enhancements on Brazil's present capacity to use this resource. The computational power available today allows the simulation of the atmospheric flow in great detail. For instance, one of the authors participated in a research that demonstrated the interaction between the lake and maritime breeze in this region through the use of a atmospheric model. Therefore, we aim to evaluate simulations of wind conditions and its potential to generate energy in this region. The model applied is the Weather Research and Forecasting , which is the mesoscale weather forecast software. The calculation domain is centered in 32oS and 52oW, in the southern region of Rio Grande do Sul state. The initial conditions of the simulation are taken from the global weather forecast in the time period from October 1st to October 31st, 2006. The wind power potential was calculated for a generic turbine, with a blade length of 52 m, using the expression: P=1/2*d*A*Cp*v^3, where P is the wind power energy (in Watts), d is the density (equal to 1.23 kg/m^3), A is the area section, which is equal to 8500 m2 , and v is the intensity of the velocity. The evaluation was done for a turbine placed at 50 m and 150 m of height. A threshold was chosen for a turbine production of 1.5 MW to estimate the potential of the site. In contrast to northern Brazilian region, which has a rather constant wind condition, this region shows a great variation of power output due to the weather variability. During the period of the study, at least three frontal systems went over the region, and thre was a

  6. Modelling NOX concentrations through CFD-RANS in an urban hot-spot using high resolution traffic emissions and meteorology from a mesoscale model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Beatriz; Santiago, Jose Luis; Martilli, Alberto; Martin, Fernando; Borge, Rafael; Quaassdorff, Christina; de la Paz, David

    2017-08-01

    Air quality management requires more detailed studies about air pollution at urban and local scale over long periods of time. This work focuses on obtaining the spatial distribution of NOx concentration averaged over several days in a heavily trafficked urban area in Madrid (Spain) using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. A methodology based on weighted average of CFD simulations is applied computing the time evolution of NOx dispersion as a sequence of steady-state scenarios taking into account the actual atmospheric conditions. The inputs of emissions are estimated from the traffic emission model and the meteorological information used is derived from a mesoscale model. Finally, the computed concentration map correlates well with 72 passive samplers deployed in the research area. This work reveals the potential of using urban mesoscale simulations together with detailed traffic emissions so as to provide accurate maps of pollutant concentration at microscale using CFD simulations.

  7. Representation of tropical deep convection in atmospheric models – Part 1: Meteorology and comparison with satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Russo

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Fast convective transport in the tropics can efficiently redistribute water vapour and pollutants up to the upper troposphere. In this study we compare tropical convection characteristics for the year 2005 in a range of atmospheric models, including numerical weather prediction (NWP models, chemistry transport models (CTMs, and chemistry-climate models (CCMs. The model runs have been performed within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere project. The characteristics of tropical convection, such as seasonal cycle, land/sea contrast and vertical extent, are analysed using satellite observations as a benchmark for model simulations. The observational datasets used in this work comprise precipitation rates, outgoing longwave radiation, cloud-top pressure, and water vapour from a number of independent sources, including ERA-Interim analyses. Most models are generally able to reproduce the seasonal cycle and strength of precipitation for continental regions but show larger discrepancies with observations for the Maritime Continent region. The frequency distribution of high clouds from models and observations is calculated using highly temporally-resolved (up to 3-hourly cloud top data. The percentage of clouds above 15 km varies significantly between the models. Vertical profiles of water vapour in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS show large differences between the models which can only be partly attributed to temperature differences. If a convective plume reaches above the level of zero net radiative heating, which is estimated to be ~15 km in the tropics, the air detrained from it can be transported upwards by radiative heating into the lower stratosphere. In this context, we discuss the role of tropical convection as a precursor for the transport of short-lived species into the lower stratosphere.

  8. Integrated meteorological and hydrological drought model: A management tool for proactive water resources planning of semi-arid regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rad, Arash Modaresi; Ghahraman, Bijan; Khalili, Davar; Ghahremani, Zahra; Ardakani, Samira Ahmadi

    2017-09-01

    Conventionally, drought analysis has been limited to single drought category. Utilization of models incorporating multiple drought categories, can relax this limitation. A copula-based model is proposed, which uses meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics to assess drought events for ultimate management of water resources, at small scales, i.e., sub-watersheds. The chosen study area is a sub-basin located at Karkheh watershed (western Iran), with five raingauge stations and one hydrometric station, located upstream and at the outlet, respectively, which represent 41-year of data. Prior to drought analysis, time series of precipitation and streamflow records are investigated for possible dependency/significant trend. Considering semi-arid nature of the study area, boxplots are utilized to graphically capture the rainy months, which are used to evaluate the degree of correlation between streamflow and precipitation records via nonparametric correlations. Time scales of 3- and 12-month are considered, which are used to study vulnerability of early vegetation establishment and long-term ecosystem resilience, respectively. Among four common goodness of fit (GOF) tests, Anderson-Darling is found preferable for defining copula distribution functions through GOF measures, i.e., Akaike and Bayesian information criteria and normalized root mean square error. Furthermore, a GOF method is proposed to evaluate the uncertainty associated with different copula models using the concept of entropy. A new bivariate drought modeling approach is proposed through copulas. The proposed index named standardized precipitation-streamflow index (SPSI) unlike common indices which are used in conjunction with station data, can be applied on a regional basis. SPDI is compared with widely applied streamflow drought index (SDI) and standardized precipitation index (SPI). To assess the homogeneity of the dependence structure of SPSI regionally, Kendall-τ and upper tail coefficient

  9. Long-term running alleviates some behavioral and molecular abnormalities in Down syndrome mouse model Ts65Dn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kida, Elizabeth; Rabe, Ausma; Walus, Marius; Albertini, Giorgio; Golabek, Adam A

    2013-02-01

    Running may affect the mood, behavior and neurochemistry of running animals. In the present study, we investigated whether voluntary daily running, sustained over several months, might improve cognition and motor function and modify the brain levels of selected proteins (SOD1, DYRK1A, MAP2, APP and synaptophysin) in Ts65Dn mice, a mouse model for Down syndrome (DS). Ts65Dn and age-matched wild-type mice, all females, had free access to a running wheel either from the time of weaning (post-weaning cohort) or from around 7 months of age (adult cohort). Sedentary female mice were housed in similar cages, without running wheels. Behavioral testing and evaluation of motor performance showed that running improved cognitive function and motor skills in Ts65Dn mice. However, while a dramatic improvement in the locomotor functions and learning of motor skills was observed in Ts65Dn mice from both post-weaning and adult cohorts, improved object memory was seen only in Ts65Dn mice that had free access to the wheel from weaning. The total levels of APP and MAP2ab were reduced and the levels of SOD1 were increased in the runners from the post-weaning cohort, while only the levels of MAP2ab and α-cleaved C-terminal fragments of APP were reduced in the adult group in comparison with sedentary trisomic mice. Hence, our study demonstrates that Ts65Dn females benefit from sustained voluntary physical exercise, more prominently if running starts early in life, providing further support to the idea that a properly designed physical exercise program could be a valuable adjuvant to future pharmacotherapy for DS.

  10. A simple running model with rolling contact and its role as a template for dynamic locomotion on a hexapod robot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ke-Jung; Huang, Chun-Kai; Lin, Pei-Chun

    2014-10-07

    We report on the development of a robot's dynamic locomotion based on a template which fits the robot's natural dynamics. The developed template is a low degree-of-freedom planar model for running with rolling contact, which we call rolling spring loaded inverted pendulum (R-SLIP). Originating from a reduced-order model of the RHex-style robot with compliant circular legs, the R-SLIP model also acts as the template for general dynamic running. The model has a torsional spring and a large circular arc as the distributed foot, so during locomotion it rolls on the ground with varied equivalent linear stiffness. This differs from the well-known spring loaded inverted pendulum (SLIP) model with fixed stiffness and ground contact points. Through dimensionless steps-to-fall and return map analysis, within a wide range of parameter spaces, the R-SLIP model is revealed to have self-stable gaits and a larger stability region than that of the SLIP model. The R-SLIP model is then embedded as the reduced-order 'template' in a more complex 'anchor', the RHex-style robot, via various mapping definitions between the template and the anchor. Experimental validation confirms that by merely deploying the stable running gaits of the R-SLIP model on the empirical robot with simple open-loop control strategy, the robot can easily initiate its dynamic running behaviors with a flight phase and can move with similar body state profiles to those of the model, in all five testing speeds. The robot, embedded with the SLIP model but performing walking locomotion, further confirms the importance of finding an adequate template of the robot for dynamic locomotion.

  11. Dark Matter Benchmark Models for Early LHC Run-2 Searches. Report of the ATLAS/CMS Dark Matter Forum

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abercrombie, Daniel [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States). et al.

    2015-07-06

    One of the guiding principles of this report is to channel the efforts of the ATLAS and CMS collaborations towards a minimal basis of dark matter models that should influence the design of the early Run-2 searches. At the same time, a thorough survey of realistic collider signals of Dark Matter is a crucial input to the overall design of the search program.

  12. An integrated model to assess critical rain fall thresholds for the critical run-out distances of debris flows

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Asch, Th.W.J.; Tang, C.; Alkema, D.; Zhu, J.; Zhou, W.

    2013-01-01

    A dramatic increase in debris flows occurred in the years after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in SW China due to the deposition of loose co-seismic landslide material. This paper proposes a preliminary integrated model, which describes the relationship between rain input and debris flow run-out in or

  13. A Bayesian analysis of sensible heat flux estimation: Quantifying uncertainty in meteorological forcing to improve model prediction

    KAUST Repository

    Ershadi, Ali

    2013-05-01

    The influence of uncertainty in land surface temperature, air temperature, and wind speed on the estimation of sensible heat flux is analyzed using a Bayesian inference technique applied to the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model. The Bayesian approach allows for an explicit quantification of the uncertainties in input variables: a source of error generally ignored in surface heat flux estimation. An application using field measurements from the Soil Moisture Experiment 2002 is presented. The spatial variability of selected input meteorological variables in a multitower site is used to formulate the prior estimates for the sampling uncertainties, and the likelihood function is formulated assuming Gaussian errors in the SEBS model. Land surface temperature, air temperature, and wind speed were estimated by sampling their posterior distribution using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Results verify that Bayesian-inferred air temperature and wind speed were generally consistent with those observed at the towers, suggesting that local observations of these variables were spatially representative. Uncertainties in the land surface temperature appear to have the strongest effect on the estimated sensible heat flux, with Bayesian-inferred values differing by up to ±5°C from the observed data. These differences suggest that the footprint of the in situ measured land surface temperature is not representative of the larger-scale variability. As such, these measurements should be used with caution in the calculation of surface heat fluxes and highlight the importance of capturing the spatial variability in the land surface temperature: particularly, for remote sensing retrieval algorithms that use this variable for flux estimation.

  14. Model analysis of urbanization impacts on boundary layer meteorology under hot weather conditions: a case study of Nanjing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lei; Zhang, Meigen; Wang, Yongwei

    2016-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, configured with a single-layer urban canopy model, was employed to investigate the influence of urbanization on boundary layer meteorological parameters during a long-lasting heat wave. This study was conducted over Nanjing city, East China, from 26 July to 4 August 2010. The impacts of urban expansion and anthropogenic heat (AH) release were simulated to quantify their effects on 2-m temperature, 2-m water vapor mixing ratio, and 10-m wind speed and heat stress index. Urban sprawl increased the daily 2-m temperature in urbanized areas by around 1.6 °C and decreased the urban diurnal temperature range (DTR) by 1.24 °C. The contribution of AH release to the atmospheric warming was nearly 22 %, but AH had little influence on the DTR. The urban regional mean surface wind speed decreased by about 0.4 m s-1, and this decrease was successfully simulated from the surface to 300 m. The influence of urbanization on 2-m water vapor mixing ratio was significant over highly urbanized areas with a decrease of 1.1-1.8 g kg-1. With increased urbanization ratio, the duration of the inversion layer was about 4 h shorter, and the lower atmospheric layer was less stable. Urban heat island (UHI) intensity was significantly enhanced when synthesizing both urban sprawl and AH release and the daily mean UHI intensity increased by 0.74 °C. Urbanization increased the time under extreme heat stress (about 40 %) and worsened the living environment in urban areas.

  15. Convergent Validity of the One-Mile Run and PACER VO2MAX Prediction Models in Middle School Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan D. Burns

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available FITNESSGRAM uses an equating method to convert Progressive Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER laps to One-mile run/walk (1MRW times to estimate aerobic fitness (VO2MAX in children. However, other prediction models can more directly estimate VO2MAX from PACER performance. The purpose of this study was to examine the convergent validity and relative accuracy between 1MRW and various PACER models for predicting VO2MAX in middle school students. Aerobic fitness was assessed on 134 students utilizing the 1MRW and PACER on separate testing days. Pearson correlations, Bland–Altman plots, kappa statistics, proportion of agreement, and prediction error were used to assess associations and agreement among models. Correlation coefficients were strong (r ≥ .80, p .40 and agreement > .90. The results support that PACER models contain convergent validity and strong relative accuracy with the 1MRW model.

  16. Improved Meteorological Input for Atmospheric Release Decision support Systems and an Integrated LES Modeling System for Atmospheric Dispersion of Toxic Agents: Homeland Security Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnold, E; Simpson, M; Larsen, S; Gash, J; Aluzzi, F; Lundquist, J; Sugiyama, G

    2010-04-26

    When hazardous material is accidently or intentionally released into the atmosphere, emergency response organizations look to decision support systems (DSSs) to translate contaminant information provided by atmospheric models into effective decisions to protect the public and emergency responders and to mitigate subsequent consequences. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS)-led Interagency Modeling and Atmospheric Assessment Center (IMAAC) is one of the primary DSSs utilized by emergency management organizations. IMAAC is responsible for providing 'a single piont for the coordination and dissemination of Federal dispersion modeling and hazard prediction products that represent the Federal position' during actual or potential incidents under the National Response Plan. The Department of Energy's (DOE) National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC), locatec at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), serves as the primary operations center of the IMAAC. A key component of atmospheric release decision support systems is meteorological information - models and data of winds, turbulence, and other atmospheric boundary-layer parameters. The accuracy of contaminant predictions is strongly dependent on the quality of this information. Therefore, the effectiveness of DSSs can be enhanced by improving the meteorological options available to drive atmospheric transport and fate models. The overall goal of this project was to develop and evaluate new meteorological modeling capabilities for DSSs based on the use of NASA Earth-science data sets in order to enhance the atmospheric-hazard information provided to emergency managers and responders. The final report describes the LLNL contributions to this multi-institutional effort. LLNL developed an approach to utilize NCAR meteorological predictions using NASA MODIS data for the New York City (NYC) region and demonstrated the potential impact of the use of different data sources and data

  17. Instantaneous-to-daily GPP upscaling schemes based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model: correcting the overestimation of GPP by directly using daily average meteorological inputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fumin; Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Black, T Andrew; Zhou, Bin

    2014-11-01

    Daily canopy photosynthesis is usually temporally upscaled from instantaneous (i.e., seconds) photosynthesis rate. The nonlinear response of photosynthesis to meteorological variables makes the temporal scaling a significant challenge. In this study, two temporal upscaling schemes of daily photosynthesis, the integrated daily model (IDM) and the segmented daily model (SDM), are presented by considering the diurnal variations of meteorological variables based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model. The two models, as well as a simple average daily model (SADM) with daily average meteorological inputs, were validated using the tower-derived gross primary production (GPP) to assess their abilities in simulating daily photosynthesis. The results showed IDM closely followed the seasonal trend of the tower-derived GPP with an average RMSE of 1.63 g C m(-2) day(-1), and an average Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E) of 0.87. SDM performed similarly to IDM in GPP simulation but decreased the computation time by >66%. SADM overestimated daily GPP by about 15% during the growing season compared to IDM. Both IDM and SDM greatly decreased the overestimation by SADM, and improved the simulation of daily GPP by reducing the RMSE by 34 and 30%, respectively. The results indicated that IDM and SDM are useful temporal upscaling approaches, and both are superior to SADM in daily GPP simulation because they take into account the diurnally varying responses of photosynthesis to meteorological variables. SDM is computationally more efficient, and therefore more suitable for long-term and large-scale GPP simulations.

  18. Search for non-standard model signatures in the WZ/ZZ final state at CDF run II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Norman, Matthew [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States)

    2009-01-01

    This thesis discusses a search for non-Standard Model physics in heavy diboson production in the dilepton-dijet final state, using 1.9 fb -1 of data from the CDF Run II detector. New limits are set on the anomalous coupling parameters for ZZ and WZ production based on limiting the production cross-section at high š. Additionally limits are set on the direct decay of new physics to ZZ andWZ diboson pairs. The nature and parameters of the CDF Run II detector are discussed, as are the influences that it has on the methods of our analysis.

  19. Coupling of WRF meteorological model to WAM spectral wave model through sea surface roughness at the Balearic Sea: impact on wind and wave forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolosana-Delgado, R.; Soret, A.; Jorba, O.; Baldasano, J. M.; Sánchez-Arcilla, A.

    2012-04-01

    Meteorological models, like WRF, usually describe the earth surface characteristics by tables that are function of land-use. The roughness length (z0) is an example of such approach. However, over sea z0 is modeled by the Charnock (1955) relation, linking the surface friction velocity u*2 with the roughness length z0 of turbulent air flow, z0 = α-u2* g The Charnock coefficient α may be considered a measure of roughness. For the sea surface, WRF considers a constant roughness α = 0.0185. However, there is evidence that sea surface roughness should depend on wave energy (Donelan, 1982). Spectral wave models like WAM, model the evolution and propagation of wave energy as a function of wind, and include a richer sea surface roughness description. Coupling WRF and WAM is thus a common way to improve the sea surface roughness description of WRF. WAM is a third generation wave model, solving the equation of advection of wave energy subject to input/output terms of: wind growth, energy dissipation and resonant non-linear wave-wave interactions. Third generation models work on the spectral domain. WAM considers the Charnock coefficient α a complex yet known function of the total wind input term, which depends on the wind velocity and on the Charnock coefficient again. This is solved iteratively (Janssen et al., 1990). Coupling of meteorological and wave models through a common Charnock coefficient is operationally done in medium-range met forecasting systems (e.g., at ECMWF) though the impact of coupling for smaller domains is not yet clearly assessed (Warner et al, 2010). It is unclear to which extent the additional effort of coupling improves the local wind and wave fields, in comparison to the effects of other factors, like e.g. a better bathymetry and relief resolution, or a better circulation information which might have its influence on local-scale meteorological processes (local wind jets, local convection, daily marine wind regimes, etc.). This work, within the

  20. Modeling of the anthropogenic heat flux and its effect on regional meteorology and air quality over the Yangtze River Delta region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Min; Liao, Jingbiao; Wang, Tijian; Zhu, Kuanguang; Zhuang, Bingliang; Han, Yong; Li, Mengmeng; Li, Shu

    2016-05-01

    Anthropogenic heat (AH) emissions from human activities caused by urbanization can affect the city environment. Based on the energy consumption and the gridded demographic data, the spatial distribution of AH emission over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region is estimated. Meanwhile, a new method for the AH parameterization is developed in the WRF/Chem model, which incorporates the gridded AH emission data with the seasonal and diurnal variations into the simulations. By running this upgraded WRF/Chem for 2 typical months in 2010, the impacts of AH on the meteorology and air quality over the YRD region are studied. The results show that the AH fluxes over the YRD have been growing in recent decades. In 2010, the annual-mean values of AH over Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 14.46, 2.61 and 1.63 W m-2, respectively, with the high value of 113.5 W m-2 occurring in the urban areas of Shanghai. These AH emissions can significantly change the urban heat island and urban-breeze circulations in the cities of the YRD region. In Shanghai, 2 m air temperature increases by 1.6 °C in January and 1.4 °C in July, the PBLH (planetary boundary layer height) rises up by 140 m in January and 160 m in July, and 10 m wind speed is enhanced by 0.7 m s-1 in January and 0.5 m s-1 in July, with a higher increment at night. The enhanced vertical movement can transport more moisture to higher levels, which causes the decrease in water vapor at ground level and the increase in the upper PBL (planetary boundary layer), and thereby induces the accumulative precipitation to increase by 15-30 % over the megacities in July. The adding of AH can impact the spatial and vertical distributions of the simulated pollutants as well. The concentrations of primary air pollutants decrease near the surface and increase at the upper levels, due mainly to the increases in PBLH, surface wind speed and upward air vertical movement. But surface O3 concentrations increase in the urban areas, with maximum

  1. On the duality between long-run relations and common trends in the I(1) versus I(2) model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    1994-01-01

    Long-run relations and common trends are discussed in terms of the multivariate cointegration model given in the autoregressive and the moving average form. The basic results needed for the analysis of I(1) and 1(2)processes are reviewed and the results applied to Danish monetary data. The test p......, "excess money" is estimated and its effect on the other determinants of the system is investigated. In particular, it is found that "excess money" has no effect on price inflation...... procedures reveal that nominal money stock is essentially I(2). Long-run price homogeneity is supported by the data and imposed on the system. It is found that the bond rate is weakly exogenous for the long-run parameters and therefore act as a driving trend. Using the nonstationarity property of the data...

  2. Search for an astronomical site in Kenya (SASKYA) using climate reanalyses and high-resolution meteorological model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Edward; Vaughan, Richard; Buckley, David A. H.; Tirima, Koi

    2016-04-01

    The goal of the Search for an Astronomical Site in Kenya (SASKYA) project is to identify the best possible site(s) in Kenya for astronomical optical observation, using ERA-interim climate reanalyses and high-resolution UK Met Office Africa Limited Area meteorological model (Africa-LAM) data. This initial search focusses on a selection of 13 candidate mountain peaks across Kenya. A mixture of 30 years (1981-2010) of relatively coarse-grained ERA-interim reanalyses data and 12 months' (2011-2012) of much higher resolution UK Met Office Africa-LAM data were used to determine the best possible sites. Cloud cover, precipitable water vapour (specific humidity), vertical velocity, aerosol loadings and wind data were analysed. The results confirm that many sites in Kenya are reasonably cloud free, with estimated photometric night fractions of possibly 50 % at the best sites. Significant seasonal inter-annual and inter-decadal variations in cloud cover can be expected, however. Average precipitable water vapour (PWV) values are uncomfortably high, but periods of much lower PWV can be expected during favourable conditions in the dry seasons. Long-term vertical velocities (as a proxy to determine areas of improved "seeing" conditions) indicate that good astronomical viewing conditions are likely to be dependent on the season and wind direction across Kenya. Finally, after full consideration of the climatological data, a trade-off is expected between the best possible site in climatological terms, and the practicalities of installing remote equipment in isolated, inaccessible areas with little or no infrastructure.

  3. Influence of the meteorological input on the atmospheric transport modelling with FLEXPART of radionuclides from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, D; Maurer, C; Wotawa, G; Draxler, R; Saito, K; Seibert, P

    2015-01-01

    In the present paper the role of precipitation as FLEXPART model input is investigated for one possible release scenario of the Fukushima Daiichi accident. Precipitation data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), the NOAA's National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) mesoscale analysis and a JMA radar-rain gauge precipitation analysis product were utilized. The accident of Fukushima in March 2011 and the following observations enable us to assess the impact of these precipitation products at least for this single case. As expected the differences in the statistical scores are visible but not large. Increasing the ECMWF resolution of all the fields from 0.5° to 0.2° rises the correlation from 0.71 to 0.80 and an overall rank from 3.38 to 3.44. Substituting ECMWF precipitation, while the rest of the variables remains unmodified, by the JMA mesoscale precipitation analysis and the JMA radar gauge precipitation data yield the best results on a regional scale, specially when a new and more robust wet deposition scheme is introduced. The best results are obtained with a combination of ECMWF 0.2° data with precipitation from JMA mesoscale analyses and the modified wet deposition with a correlation of 0.83 and an overall rank of 3.58. NCEP-based results with the same source term are generally poorer, giving correlations around 0.66, and comparatively large negative biases and an overall rank of 3.05 that worsens when regional precipitation data is introduced.

  4. 气象因素对电力安全事故影响的模型%Research on Impact Model of Meteorological Factors on the Power Accidents

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李彦斌; 韩颖; 张嵘; 李彦国

    2013-01-01

      以我国南方某地区为例,收集了该地区连续48个月的电力事故数据及其对应的15个气象要素资料。首先用因子分析法消除了15个气象要素的多重共线性,提取了温度因子、降水因子、湿度因子、风力因子4类主要因素,其次应用Logistic回归建立了气象因素对电力事故的影响模型。模型探究了气象条件与电力事故的内在联系,并用2010年的检验样本验证了模型拟合的准确性,为电力事故预警机制的建立进行了积极的探讨。%Taking a certain region in South China for example, the power system accident data in continuous 48 months of this region and corresponding data of 15 meteorological factors are collected. Firstly, the multicollinearity of the 15 meteorological factors are eliminated by factor analysis, and four kinds of main factors such as temperature factor, precipitation factor, humidity factor and wind power factor are extracted;secondly, an impact model of meteorological factors on power system accidents is established by Logistic regression. Using the established impact model the internal relations between meteorological conditions and power system accidents are explored, and the fitting accuracy of the proposed model is validated by test samples in 2010. The proposed impact model is available for reference to the establishment of early warning mechanism for power system accidents.

  5. Evaluation of land surface model representation of phenology: an analysis of model runs submitted to the NACP Interim Site Synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, A. D.; Nacp Interim Site Synthesis Participants

    2010-12-01

    Phenology represents a critical intersection point between organisms and their growth environment. It is for this reason that phenology is a sensitive and robust integrator of the biological impacts of year-to-year climate variability and longer-term climate change on natural systems. However, it is perhaps equally important that phenology, by controlling the seasonal activity of vegetation on the land surface, plays a fundamental role in regulating ecosystem processes, competitive interactions, and feedbacks to the climate system. Unfortunately, the phenological sub-models implemented in most state-of-the-art ecosystem models and land surface schemes are overly simplified. We quantified model errors in the representation of the seasonal cycles of leaf area index (LAI), gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP), and net ecosystem exchange of CO2. Our analysis was based on site-level model runs (14 different models) submitted to the North American Carbon Program (NACP) Interim Synthesis, and long-term measurements from 10 forested (5 evergreen conifer, 5 deciduous broadleaf) sites within the AmeriFlux and Fluxnet-Canada networks. Model predictions of the seasonality of LAI and GEP were unacceptable, particularly in spring, and especially for deciduous forests. This is despite an historical emphasis on deciduous forest phenology, and the perception that controls on spring phenology are better understood than autumn phenology. Errors of up to 25 days in predicting “spring onset” transition dates were common, and errors of up to 50 days were observed. For deciduous sites, virtually every model was biased towards spring onset being too early, and autumn senescence being too late. Thus, models predicted growing seasons that were far too long for deciduous forests. For most models, errors in the seasonal representation of deciduous forest LAI were highly correlated with errors in the seasonality of both GPP and NEE, indicating the importance of getting the underlying

  6. Application of WRF/Chem-MADRID and WRF/Polyphemus in Europe – Part 1: Model description and evaluation of meteorological predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Seigneur

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Comprehensive model evaluation and comparison of two 3-D air quality modeling systems (i.e. the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF/Polyphemus and WRF with chemistry and the Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ionization, and Dissolution (MADRID (WRF/Chem-MADRID are conducted over western Europe. Part 1 describes the background information for the model comparison and simulation design, as well as the application of WRF for January and July 2001 over triple-nested domains in western Europe at three horizontal grid resolutions: 0.5°, 0.125°, and 0.025°. Six simulated meteorological variables (i.e. temperature at 2 m (T2, specific humidity at 2 m (Q2, relative humidity at 2 m (RH2, wind speed at 10 m (WS10, wind direction at 10 m (WD10, and precipitation (Precip are evaluated using available observations in terms of spatial distribution, domainwide daily and site-specific hourly variations, and domainwide performance statistics. WRF demonstrates its capability in capturing diurnal/seasonal variations and spatial gradients of major meteorological variables. While the domainwide performance of T2, Q2, RH2, and WD10 at all three grid resolutions is satisfactory overall, large positive or negative biases occur in WS10 and Precip even at 0.025°. In addition, discrepancies between simulations and observations exist in T2, Q2, WS10, and Precip at mountain/high altitude sites and large urban center sites in both months, in particular, during snow events or thunderstorms. These results indicate the model's difficulty in capturing meteorological variables in complex terrain and subgrid-scale meteorological phenomena, due to inaccuracies in model initialization parameterization (e.g. lack of soil temperature and moisture nudging, limitations in the physical parameterizations of the planetary boundary layer (e.g. cloud microphysics, cumulus parameterizations, and ice nucleation treatments as well as limitations in surface heat and moisture budget

  7. Method of Running Sines: Modeling Variability in Long-Period Variables

    CERN Document Server

    Andronov, Ivan L

    2013-01-01

    We review one of complementary methods for time series analysis - the method of "Running Sines". "Crash tests" of the method include signals with a large period variation and with a large trend. The method is most effective for "nearly periodic" signals, which exhibit "wavy shape" with a "cycle length" varying within few dozen per cent (i.e. oscillations of low coherence). This is a typical case for brightness variations of long-period pulsating variables and resembles QPO (Quasi-Periodic Oscillations) and TPO (Transient Periodic Oscillations) in interacting binary stars - cataclysmic variables, symbiotic variables, low-mass X-Ray binaries etc. General theory of "running approximations" was described by Andronov (1997A &AS..125..207A), one of realizations of which is the method of "running sines". The method is related to Morlet-type wavelet analysis improved for irregularly spaced data (Andronov, 1998KFNT...14..490A, 1999sss..conf...57A), as well as to a classical "running mean" (="moving average"). The ...

  8. Simulation of nonlinear wave run-up with a high-order Boussinesq model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuhrman, David R.; Madsen, Per A.

    2008-01-01

    cases involving long wave resonance in a parabolic basin, solitary wave evolution in a triangular channel, and solitary wave run-up on a circular conical island are considered. In each case the computed results compare well against available analytical solutions or experimental measurements. The ability...

  9. Modeling the milling tool wear by using an evolutionary SVM-based model from milling runs experimental data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieto, Paulino José García; García-Gonzalo, Esperanza; Vilán, José Antonio Vilán; Robleda, Abraham Segade

    2015-12-01

    The main aim of this research work is to build a new practical hybrid regression model to predict the milling tool wear in a regular cut as well as entry cut and exit cut of a milling tool. The model was based on Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) in combination with support vector machines (SVMs). This optimization mechanism involved kernel parameter setting in the SVM training procedure, which significantly influences the regression accuracy. Bearing this in mind, a PSO-SVM-based model, which is based on the statistical learning theory, was successfully used here to predict the milling tool flank wear (output variable) as a function of the following input variables: the time duration of experiment, depth of cut, feed, type of material, etc. To accomplish the objective of this study, the experimental dataset represents experiments from runs on a milling machine under various operating conditions. In this way, data sampled by three different types of sensors (acoustic emission sensor, vibration sensor and current sensor) were acquired at several positions. A second aim is to determine the factors with the greatest bearing on the milling tool flank wear with a view to proposing milling machine's improvements. Firstly, this hybrid PSO-SVM-based regression model captures the main perception of statistical learning theory in order to obtain a good prediction of the dependence among the flank wear (output variable) and input variables (time, depth of cut, feed, etc.). Indeed, regression with optimal hyperparameters was performed and a determination coefficient of 0.95 was obtained. The agreement of this model with experimental data confirmed its good performance. Secondly, the main advantages of this PSO-SVM-based model are its capacity to produce a simple, easy-to-interpret model, its ability to estimate the contributions of the input variables, and its computational efficiency. Finally, the main conclusions of this study are exposed.

  10. Suitability of a Coupled Hydrodynamic Water Quality Model to Predict Changes in Water Quality from Altered Meteorological Boundary Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leon van der Linden

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Downscaled climate scenarios can be used to inform management decisions on investment in infrastructure or alternative water sources within water supply systems. Appropriate models of the system components, such as catchments, rivers, lakes and reservoirs, are required. The climatic sensitivity of the coupled hydrodynamic water quality model ELCOM-CAEDYM was investigated, by incrementally altering boundary conditions, to determine its suitability for evaluating climate change impacts. A series of simulations were run with altered boundary condition inputs for the reservoir. Air and inflowing water temperature (TEMP, wind speed (WIND and reservoir inflow and outflow volumes (FLOW were altered to investigate the sensitivity of these key drivers over relevant domains. The simulated water quality variables responded in broadly plausible ways to the altered boundary conditions; sensitivity of the simulated cyanobacteria population to increases in temperature was similar to published values. However the negative response of total chlorophyll-a suggested by the model was not supported by an empirical analysis of climatic sensitivity. This study demonstrated that ELCOM-CAEDYM is sensitive to climate drivers and may be suitable for use in climate impact studies. It is recommended that the influence of structural and parameter derived uncertainty on the results be evaluated. Important factors in determining phytoplankton growth were identified and the importance of inflowing water quality was emphasized.

  11. A modeling study on the effect of urban land surface forcing to regional meteorology and air quality over South China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Kuanguang; Xie, Min; Wang, Tijian; Cai, Junxiong; Li, Songbing; Feng, Wen

    2017-03-01

    The change of land-use from natural to artificial surface induced by urban expansion can deeply impact the city environment. In this paper, the model WRF/Chem is applied to explore the effect of this change on regional meteorology and air quality over South China, where people have witnessed a rapid rate of urbanization. Two sets of urban maps are adopted to stand for the pre-urbanization and the present urban land-use distributions. Month-long simulations are conducted for January and July, 2014. The results show that urban expansion can obviously change the weather conditions around the big cities of South China. Especially in the Pearl River Delta region (PRD), the urban land-use change can increase the sensible heat flux by 40 W/m2 in January and 80 W/m2 in July, while decrease the latent heat flux about -50 W/m2 in January and -120 W/m2 in July. In the consequent, 2-m air temperature (T2) increases as much as 1 °C and 2 °C (respective to January and July), planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) rises up by 100-150 m and 300 m, 10-m wind speed (WS10) decreases by -1.2 m/s and -0.3 m/s, and 2-m specific humidity is reduced by -0.8 g/kg and -1.5 g/kg. Also, the precipitation in July can be increased as much as 120 mm, with more heavy rains and rainstorms. These variations of meteorological factors can significantly impact the spatial and vertical distribution of air pollutants as well. In PRD, the enhanced updraft can reduce the surface concentrations of PM10 by -40 μg/m3 (30%) in January and -80 μg/m3 (50%) in July, but produce a correlating increase in the concentrations at higher atmospheric layers. However, according to the increase in T2 and the decrease in surface NO, the surface concentrations of O3 in PRD can increase by 2-6 ppb in January and 8-12 ppb in July. Meanwhile, there is a significant increase in the O3 concentrations at upper layers above PRD, which should be attributed to the increase in air temperature and the enhanced upward transport of

  12. JMA's regional atmospheric transport model calculations for the WMO technical task team on meteorological analyses for Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Kazuo; Shimbori, Toshiki; Draxler, Roland

    2015-01-01

    The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) convened a small technical task team of experts to produce a set of meteorological analyses to drive atmospheric transport, dispersion and deposition models (ATDMs) for the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation's assessment of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (DNPP) accident. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) collaborated with the WMO task team as the regional specialized meteorological center of the country where the accident occurred, and provided its operational 5-km resolution mesoscale (MESO) analysis and its 1-km resolution radar/rain gauge-analyzed precipitation (RAP) data. The JMA's mesoscale tracer transport model was modified to a regional ATDM for radionuclides (RATM), which included newly implemented algorithms for dry deposition, wet scavenging, and gravitational settling of radionuclide aerosol particles. Preliminary and revised calculations of the JMA-RATM were conducted according to the task team's protocol. Verification against Cesium 137 ((137)Cs) deposition measurements and observed air concentration time series showed that the performance of RATM with MESO data was significantly improved by the revisions to the model. The use of RAP data improved the (137)Cs deposition pattern but not the time series of air concentrations at Tokai-mura compared with calculations just using the MESO data. Sensitivity tests of some of the more uncertain parameters were conducted to determine their impacts on ATDM calculations, and the dispersion and deposition of radionuclides on 15 March 2011, the period of some of the largest emissions and deposition to the land areas of Japan. The area with high deposition in the northwest of Fukushima DNPP and the hotspot in the central part of Fukushima prefecture were primarily formed by wet scavenging influenced by the orographic effect of the mountainous area in the west of the Fukushima prefecture.

  13. A Meteorological Yield Model of Potato in Liangshan, Sichuan%凉山州马铃薯气象产量模型研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    罗清; 刘晓迎

    2011-01-01

    Liangshan prefecture is the biggest base of potato of Sichuang province, in Southwest of China. The authors collected these data about yield of potato and climate from 1990 to 2008. After having analyzed these data the authors found some result that the mathematic relation between social yield of potato and time was cubic equation, the value of meteorological yield changed from -210~1 665 kg per hm2. The authors collected meteorological data to compare and analyze with mean daily temperature, sunshine duration and rainfall of from March to August, then to find the relation between meteorological yield and meteorological data, by doing so the authors build the integral regression model. The built model could offer some assistance to plant potato in Liangshan.%凉山州是四川省最大的马铃薯生产基地,该文对凉山州1990-2008年马铃薯产量和气候条件进行了统计分析研究.结果表明:凉山州马铃薯社会产量具有立方抛物线形,其气象产量在-210~1 665 kg/hm2之间变化.笔者利用凉山州气象产量与3-8月各月的平均温度、日照时数和降水量进行统计分析,建立了气象产量及相应的积分回归模型.模型的建立可为马铃薯大面积生产,开展气象产量动态预报提供理论方法.

  14. Running and addiction: precipitated withdrawal in a rat model of activity-based anorexia

    OpenAIRE

    Kanarek, Robin B.; D'Anci, Kristen E.; Jurdak, Nicole; Mathes, Wendy Foulds

    2009-01-01

    Physical activity improves cardiovascular health, strengthens muscles and bones, stimulates neuroplasticity, and promotes feelings of well-being and self-esteem. However, when taken to extremes, exercise can develop into an addictive-like behavior. To further assess the addictive potential of physical activity, the present experiments assessed whether running wheel activity in rats would lead to physical dependence similar to that observed after chronic morphine administration. Active male an...

  15. MathRun: An Adaptive Mental Arithmetic Game Using A Quantitative Performance Model

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, L.; Tang, Wen

    2016-01-01

    Pedagogy and the way children learn are changing rapidly with the introduction of widely accessible computer technologies, from mobile apps to interactive educational games. Digital games have the capacity to embed many learning supports using the widely accredited VARK (visual, auditory, reading, and kinaesthetic) learning style. In this paper, we present a mathematics educational game MathRun for children age between 7-11 years old to practice mental arithmetic. We build the game as an inte...

  16. Treadmill running improves spatial memory in an animal model of Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoveida, Reihaneh; Alaei, Hojjatallah; Oryan, Shahrbanoo; Parivar, Kazem; Reisi, Parham

    2011-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease that is characterized by a decline in cognitive function and severe neuronal loss in the cerebral cortex and certain subcortical regions of the brain including nucleus basalis magnocellularis (NBM) that play an important role in learning and memory. There are few therapeutic regimens that influence the underlying pathogenic phenotypes of AD, however, of the currently available therapies, exercise training is considered to be one of the best strategies for attenuating the pathological phenotypes of AD for people with AD. Here, we sought to investigate the effect of treadmill running on spatial memory in Alzheimer-induced rats. Male Wistar rats were split into two groups namely shams (n=7) and lesions with the lesion group subdivided further into the lesion-rest (n=7) and lesion-exercise (n=7). The lesion-exercise and shams were subjected to treadmill running at 17 meters per minute (m/min) for 60 min per day (min/day), 7 days per week (days/wk), for 60 days. Spatial memory was investigated using the Morris Water Maze test in the rats after 60 days of Alzheimer induction and the exercise. Our data demonstrated that spatial memory was indeed impaired in the lesion group compared with the shams. However, exercise notably improved spatial memory in the lesion-exercised rats compared to lesion-rested group. The present results suggest that spatial memory is affected under Alzheimer conditions and that treadmill running improves these effects. Our data suggested that treadmill running contributes to the alleviation of the cognitive decline in AD.

  17. Four-dimensional data assimilation as a method for coupling two meteorological model systems of different scales; Vierdimensionale Datenassimilation als Methode zur Kopplung zweier verschiedenskaliger meteorologischer Modellsysteme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilms-Grabe, W.

    2001-10-01

    A method of coupling two meteorological models of different scales must meet certain requirements: First, even a big difference in resolution between the two models must not produce disturbances in the smaller-scale model. This means that most nesting approaches are unfit for the purpose. The method presented here is not limited to meteorological models. It can be enhanced without much difficulty to dispersion models taking account of chemical atmospheric reactions, as e.g. in the CTM of the EURAD model or in DRAIS as an enhancement of the KAMM version. [German] Das Ziel dieser Arbeit bestand in der Entwicklung eines geeigneten Kopplungsverfahrens zweier verschiedenskaliger meteorologischer Modelle, das in einem Ein-Weg-Nesting dem kleinerskaligen Modell ermoeglicht, sowohl instationaere superskalige Verhaeltnisse als auch modellinterne kleinraeumige Prozesse miteinander zu verbinden. Im Rahmen des Projektes TFS mussten hierbei entscheidende Bedingungen an das Kopplungsverfahren gestellt werden. Allen voran darf vor allem ein auch grosser Unterschied in der Aufloesung der beiden verschiedenskaligen Modelle keine kuenstlichen Stoerungen im kleinerskaligen Modell produzieren. Somit scheiden die sonst ueblichen Nestingansaetze fuer diesen Fall aus. Das Verfahren ist derart konzipiert, dass es sich nicht auf rein meteorologische Modelle beschraenkt. Eine Ausweitung auf Ausbreitungsmodelle unter Beruecksichtigung chemischer Reaktionen in der Atmosphaere, wie sie etwa im CTM des EURAD-Modells oder im DRAIS als Erweiterung der KAMM-Version zur Verfuegung stehen, stellt keinen allzu grossen Schritt mehr dar. (orig.)

  18. Voluntary Running Attenuates Memory Loss, Decreases Neuropathological Changes and Induces Neurogenesis in a Mouse Model of Alzheimer's Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapia-Rojas, Cheril; Aranguiz, Florencia; Varela-Nallar, Lorena; Inestrosa, Nibaldo C

    2016-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by loss of memory and cognitive abilities, and the appearance of amyloid plaques composed of the amyloid-β peptide (Aβ) and neurofibrillary tangles formed of tau protein. It has been suggested that exercise might ameliorate the disease; here, we evaluated the effect of voluntary running on several aspects of AD including amyloid deposition, tau phosphorylation, inflammatory reaction, neurogenesis and spatial memory in the double transgenic APPswe/PS1ΔE9 mouse model of AD. We report that voluntary wheel running for 10 weeks decreased Aβ burden, Thioflavin-S-positive plaques and Aβ oligomers in the hippocampus. In addition, runner APPswe/PS1ΔE9 mice showed fewer phosphorylated tau protein and decreased astrogliosis evidenced by lower staining of GFAP. Further, runner APPswe/PS1ΔE9 mice showed increased number of neurons in the hippocampus and exhibited increased cell proliferation and generation of cells positive for the immature neuronal protein doublecortin, indicating that running increased neurogenesis. Finally, runner APPswe/PS1ΔE9 mice showed improved spatial memory performance in the Morris water maze. Altogether, our findings indicate that in APPswe/PS1ΔE9 mice, voluntary running reduced all the neuropathological hallmarks of AD studied, reduced neuronal loss, increased hippocampal neurogenesis and reduced spatial memory loss. These findings support that voluntary exercise might have therapeutic value on AD.

  19. Running Exercise Alleviates Pain and Promotes Cell Proliferation in a Rat Model of Intervertebral Disc Degeneration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuo Luan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Chronic low back pain accompanied by intervertebral disk degeneration is a common musculoskeletal disorder. Physical exercise, which is clinically recommended by international guidelines, has proven to be effective for degenerative disc disease (DDD patients. However, the mechanism underlying the analgesic effects of physical exercise on DDD remains largely unclear. The results of the present study showed that mechanical withdrawal thresholds of bilateral hindpaw were significantly decreased beginning on day three after intradiscal complete Freund’s adjuvant (CFA injection and daily running exercise remarkably reduced allodynia in the CFA exercise group beginning at day 28 compared to the spontaneous recovery group (controls. The hindpaw withdrawal thresholds of the exercise group returned nearly to baseline at the end of experiment, but severe pain persisted in the control group. Histological examinations performed on day 70 revealed that running exercise restored the degenerative discs and increased the cell densities of the annulus fibrosus (AF and nucleus pulposus (NP. Furthermore, immunofluorescence labeling revealed significantly higher numbers of 5-bromo-2-deoxyuridine (BrdU-positive cells in the exercise group on days 28, 42, 56 and 70, which indicated more rapid proliferation compared to the control at the corresponding time points. Taken together, these results suggest that running exercise might alleviate the mechanical allodynia induced by intradiscal CFA injection via disc repair and cell proliferation, which provides new evidence for future clinical use.

  20. Dual-use tools and systematics-aware analysis workflows in the ATLAS Run-2 analysis model

    CERN Document Server

    FARRELL, Steven; The ATLAS collaboration; Calafiura, Paolo; Delsart, Pierre-Antoine; Elsing, Markus; Koeneke, Karsten; Krasznahorkay, Attila; Krumnack, Nils; Lancon, Eric; Lavrijsen, Wim; Laycock, Paul; Lei, Xiaowen; Strandberg, Sara Kristina; Verkerke, Wouter; Vivarelli, Iacopo; Woudstra, Martin

    2015-01-01

    The ATLAS analysis model has been overhauled for the upcoming run of data collection in 2015 at 13 TeV. One key component of this upgrade was the Event Data Model (EDM), which now allows for greater flexibility in the choice of analysis software framework and provides powerful new features that can be exploited by analysis software tools. A second key component of the upgrade is the introduction of a dual-use tool technology, which provides abstract interfaces for analysis software tools to run in either the Athena framework or a ROOT-based framework. The tool interfaces, including a new interface for handling systematic uncertainties, have been standardized for the development of improved analysis workflows and consolidation of high-level analysis tools. This paper will cover the details of the dual-use tool functionality, the systematics interface, and how these features fit into a centrally supported analysis environment.

  1. Software library of meteorological routines for air quality models; Libreria de software de procedimientos meteorologicos para modelos de dispersion de contaminantes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galindo Garcia, Ivan Francisco

    1999-04-01

    Air quality models are an essential tool for most air pollution studies. The models require, however, certain meteorological information about the model domain. Some of the required meteorological parameters can be measured directly, but others must be estimated from available measured data. Therefore, a set of procedures, routines and computational programs to obtain all the meteorological and micrometeorological input data is required. The objective in this study is the identification and implementation of several relationships and methods for the determination of all the meteorological parameters required as input data by US-EPA recommended air pollution models. To accomplish this, a study about air pollution models was conducted, focusing, particularly, on the model meteorological input data. Also, the meteorological stations from the Servicio Meteorologico Nacional (SMN) were analyzed. The type and quality of the meteorological data produced was obtained. The routines and methods developed were based, particularly, on the data produced by SMN stations. Routines were organized in a software library, which allows one to build the specific meteorological processor needed, independently of the model used. Methods were validated against data obtained from an advanced meteorological station owned and operated by the Electrical Research Institute (Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas (IIE)). The results from the validation show that the estimation of the parameters required by air pollution models from routinely available data from Mexico meteorological stations is feasible and therefore let us take full advantage of the use of air pollution models. As an application example of the software library developed, the building of a meteorological processor for a specific air pollution model (CALPUFF) is described. The big advantage the library represents is evident from this example. [Espanol] Los modelos de dispersion de contaminantes constituyen una herramienta

  2. Modelling effects of acid deposition and climate change on soil and run-off chemistry at Risdalsheia, Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Mol-Dijkstra

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Elevated carbon dioxide levels, caused by anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, and higher temperature may lead to increased plant growth and uptake of nitrogen, but increased temperature may lead to increased nitrogen mineralisation causing enhanced nitrogen leaching. The overall result of both counteracting effects is largely unknown. To gain insight into the long-term effects, the geochemical model SMART2 was applied using data from the catchment-scale experiments of the RAIN and CLIMEX projects, conducted on boreal forest ecosystems at Risdalsheia, southern Norway. These unique experiments at the ecosystem scale provide information on the short-term effects and interactions of nitrogen deposition and increased temperature and carbon dioxide on carbon and nitrogen cycling and especially the run-off chemistry. To predict changes in soil processes in response to climate change, the model was extended by including the temperature effect on mineralisation, nitrification, denitrification, aluminium dissolution and mineral weathering. The extended model was tested on the two manipulated catchments at Risdalsheia and long-term effects were evaluated by performing long-time runs. The effects of climate change treatment, which resulted in increased nitrogen fluxes at both catchments, were slightly overestimated by SMART2. The temperature dependency of mineralisation was simulated adequately but the temperature effect on nitrification was slightly overestimated. Monitored changes in base cation concentrations and pH were quite well simulated with SMART2. The long-term simulations indicate that the increase in nitrogen run-off is only a temporary effect; in the long-term, no effect on total nitrogen leaching is predicted. At higher deposition levels the temporary increase in nitrogen leaching lasts longer than at low deposition. Contrary to nitrogen leaching, temperature increase leads to a permanent decrease in aluminium

  3. Dark Matter Benchmark Models for Early LHC Run-2 Searches: Report of the ATLAS/CMS Dark Matter Forum

    CERN Document Server

    Abercrombie, Daniel; Akilli, Ece; Alcaraz Maestre, Juan; Allen, Brandon; Alvarez Gonzalez, Barbara; Andrea, Jeremy; Arbey, Alexandre; Azuelos, Georges; Azzi, Patrizia; Backovic, Mihailo; Bai, Yang; Banerjee, Swagato; Beacham, James; Belyaev, Alexander; Boveia, Antonio; Brennan, Amelia Jean; Buchmueller, Oliver; Buckley, Matthew R.; Busoni, Giorgio; Buttignol, Michael; Cacciapaglia, Giacomo; Caputo, Regina; Carpenter, Linda; Filipe Castro, Nuno; Gomez Ceballos, Guillelmo; Cheng, Yangyang; Chou, John Paul; Cortes Gonzalez, Arely; Cowden, Chris; D'Eramo, Francesco; De Cosa, Annapaola; De Gruttola, Michele; De Roeck, Albert; De Simone, Andrea; Deandrea, Aldo; Demiragli, Zeynep; DiFranzo, Anthony; Doglioni, Caterina; du Pree, Tristan; Erbacher, Robin; Erdmann, Johannes; Fischer, Cora; Flaecher, Henning; Fox, Patrick J.; Fuks, Benjamin; Genest, Marie-Helene; Gomber, Bhawna; Goudelis, Andreas; Gramling, Johanna; Gunion, John; Hahn, Kristian; Haisch, Ulrich; Harnik, Roni; Harris, Philip C.; Hoepfner, Kerstin; Hoh, Siew Yan; Hsu, Dylan George; Hsu, Shih-Chieh; Iiyama, Yutaro; Ippolito, Valerio; Jacques, Thomas; Ju, Xiangyang; Kahlhoefer, Felix; Kalogeropoulos, Alexis; Kaplan, Laser Seymour; Kashif, Lashkar; Khoze, Valentin V.; Khurana, Raman; Kotov, Khristian; Kovalskyi, Dmytro; Kulkarni, Suchita; Kunori, Shuichi; Kutzner, Viktor; Lee, Hyun Min; Lee, Sung-Won; Liew, Seng Pei; Lin, Tongyan; Lowette, Steven; Madar, Romain; Malik, Sarah; Maltoni, Fabio; Martinez Perez, Mario; Mattelaer, Olivier; Mawatari, Kentarou; McCabe, Christopher; Megy, Theo; Morgante, Enrico; Mrenna, Stephen; Narayanan, Siddharth M.; Nelson, Andy; Novaes, Sergio F.; Padeken, Klaas Ole; Pani, Priscilla; Papucci, Michele; Paulini, Manfred; Paus, Christoph; Pazzini, Jacopo; Penning, Bjorn; Peskin, Michael E.; Pinna, Deborah; Procura, Massimiliano; Qazi, Shamona F.; Racco, Davide; Re, Emanuele; Riotto, Antonio; Rizzo, Thomas G.; Roehrig, Rainer; Salek, David; Sanchez Pineda, Arturo; Sarkar, Subir; Schmidt, Alexander; Schramm, Steven Randolph; Shepherd, William; Singh, Gurpreet; Soffi, Livia; Srimanobhas, Norraphat; Sung, Kevin; Tait, Tim M.P.; Theveneaux-Pelzer, Timothee; Thomas, Marc; Tosi, Mia; Trocino, Daniele; Undleeb, Sonaina; Vichi, Alessandro; Wang, Fuquan; Wang, Lian-Tao; Wang, Ren-Jie; Whallon, Nikola; Worm, Steven; Wu, Mengqing; Wu, Sau Lan; Yang, Hongtao; Yang, Yong; Yu, Shin-Shan; Zaldivar, Bryan; Zanetti, Marco; Zhang, Zhiqing; Zucchetta, Alberto

    2015-01-01

    This document is the final report of the ATLAS-CMS Dark Matter Forum, a forum organized by the ATLAS and CMS collaborations with the participation of experts on theories of Dark Matter, to select a minimal basis set of dark matter simplified models that should support the design of the early LHC Run-2 searches. A prioritized, compact set of benchmark models is proposed, accompanied by studies of the parameter space of these models and a repository of generator implementations. This report also addresses how to apply the Effective Field Theory formalism for collider searches and present the results of such interpretations.

  4. Dark Matter Benchmark Models for Early LHC Run-2 Searches: Report of the ATLAS/CMS Dark Matter Forum

    OpenAIRE

    Abercrombie, Daniel; Akchurin, Nural; Akilli, Ece; Maestre, Juan Alcaraz; Allen, Brandon; Gonzalez, Barbara Alvarez; Andrea, Jeremy; Arbey, Alexandre; Azuelos, Georges; Azzi, Patrizia; Backović, Mihailo; Bai, Yang; Banerjee, Swagato; Beacham, James; Belyaev, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    This document is the final report of the ATLAS-CMS Dark Matter Forum, a forum organized by the ATLAS and CMS collaborations with the participation of experts on theories of Dark Matter, to select a minimal basis set of dark matter simplified models that should support the design of the early LHC Run-2 searches. A prioritized, compact set of benchmark models is proposed, accompanied by studies of the parameter space of these models and a repository of generator implementations. This report als...

  5. Meteorological Monitoring Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hancock, H.A. Jr. [ed.; Parker, M.J.; Addis, R.P.

    1994-09-01

    The purpose of this technical report is to provide a comprehensive, detailed overview of the meteorological monitoring program at the Savannah River Site (SRS) near Aiken, South Carolina. The principle function of the program is to provide current, accurate meteorological data as input for calculating the transport and diffusion of any unplanned release of an atmospheric pollutant. The report is recommended for meteorologists, technicians, or any personnel who require an in-depth understanding of the meteorological monitoring program.

  6. Statistical Physics in Meteorology

    OpenAIRE

    Ausloos, Marcel

    2004-01-01

    Various aspects of modern statistical physics and meteorology can be tied together. The historical importance of the University of Wroclaw in the field of meteorology is first pointed out. Next, some basic difference about time and space scales between meteorology and climatology is outlined. The nature and role of clouds both from a geometric and thermal point of view are recalled. Recent studies of scaling laws for atmospheric variables are mentioned, like studies on cirrus ice content, bri...

  7. Synoptic-scale meteorological control on reactive bromine production and ozone depletion in the Arctic boundary layer: 3-D simulation with the GEM-AQ model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Toyota

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Episodes of high bromine levels and surface ozone depletion in the springtime Arctic are simulated by an online air-quality model, GEM-AQ, with gas-phase and heterogeneous reactions of inorganic bromine species and a simple scheme of air-snowpack chemical interactions implemented for this study. Snowpack on sea ice is assumed to be the only source of bromine to the atmosphere and capable of converting relatively stable bromine species to photolabile Br2 via air-snowpack interactions. A "bromine explosion", by which Br retained in the snowpack is autocatalytically released to the atmosphere as a result of dry deposition of HOBr and BrONO2, is assumed to occur on young, first-year (FY sea ice (or its overlying snowpack, whereas the snowpack on old, multi-year (MY sea ice and over land is assumed only to recycle a part (but up to 100% of bromine reservoirs lost via dry deposition back to Br2. Model runs are performed for April 2001 at a horizontal resolution of approximately 100 km × 100 km in the Arctic. The model simulates temporal variations in surface ozone mixing ratios as observed at stations in the high Arctic and the synoptic-scale evolution of enhanced BrO column amounts ("BrO clouds" as seen from satellite reasonably well. The results strongly suggest: (1 a ubiquitous source of reactive bromine exists on the FY sea ice during the Arctic springtime; and (2 the timing of bromine release to the atmosphere is largely controlled by meteorological forcing on the transport of ozone to the near-surface air. Also, if the surface snowpack supplies most of the reactive bromine in the Arctic boundary layer, it should be capable of releasing reactive bromine at temperatures as high as −10 °C, particularly on the FY sea ice in the central and eastern Arctic Ocean. Dynamically-induced BrO column variability in the lowermost stratosphere appears to interfere with the use of satellite BrO column

  8. Statistical modelling of wildfire size and intensity: a step toward meteorological forecasting of summer extreme fire risk

    OpenAIRE

    Hernandez, C; Keribin, C.; Drobinski, P.; Turquety, S.

    2015-01-01

    International audience; In this article we investigate the use of statistical methods for wildfire risk assessment in the Mediterranean Basin using three meteorological covariates, the 2 m temperature anomaly, the 10 m wind speed and the January– June rainfall occurrence anomaly. We focus on two remotely sensed characteristic fire variables, the burnt area (BA) and the fire radiative power (FRP), which are good proxies for fire size and intensity respectively. Using the fire data we determine...

  9. Lectures in Micro Meteorology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Søren Ejling

    This report contains the notes from my lectures on Micro scale meteorology at the Geophysics Department of the Niels Bohr Institute of Copenhagen University. In the period 1993-2012, I was responsible for this course at the University. At the start of the course, I decided that the text books...... available in meteorology at that time did not include enough of the special flavor of micro meteorology that characterized the work of the meteorology group at Risø (presently of the Institute of wind energy of the Danish Technical University). This work was focused on Boundary layer flows and turbulence...

  10. Meteorological Archival Facility

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — FUNCTION: The Bergen Data Center (BDC) provides data archival capability for meteorological and oceanographic data. DESCRIPTION: The BDC operates as a resource for...

  11. Development of tools for evaluating rainfall estimation models in real- time using the Integrated Meteorological Observation Network in Castilla y León (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merino, Andres; Guerrero-Higueras, Angel Manuel; López, Laura; Gascón, Estibaliz; Sánchez, José Luis; Lorente, José Manuel; Marcos, José Luis; Matía, Pedro; Ortiz de Galisteo, José Pablo; Nafría, David; Fernández-González, Sergio; Weigand, Roberto; Hermida, Lucía; García-Ortega, Eduardo

    2014-05-01

    The integration of various public and private observation networks into the Observation Network of Castile-León (ONet_CyL), Spain, allows us to monitor the risks in real-time. One of the most frequent risks in this region is severe precipitation. Thus, the data from the network allows us to determine the area where precipitation was registered and also to know the areas with precipitation in real-time. The observation network is managed with a LINUX system. The observation platform makes it possible to consult the observation data in a specific point in the region, or otherwise to see the spatial distribution of the precipitation in a user-defined area and time interval. In this study, we compared several rainfall estimation models, based on satellite data for Castile-León, with precipitation data from the meteorological observation network. The rainfall estimation models obtained from the meteorological satellite data provide us with a precipitation field covering a wide area, although its operational use requires a prior evaluation using ground truth data. The aim is to develop a real-time evaluation tool for rainfall estimation models that allows us to monitor the accuracy of its forecasting. This tool makes it possible to visualise different Skill Scores (Probability of Detection, False Alarm Ratio and others) of each rainfall estimation model in real time, thereby not only allowing us to know the areas where the rainfall models indicate precipitation, but also the validation of the model in real-time for each specific meteorological situation. Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the Regional Government of Castile-León for its financial support through the project LE220A11-2. This study was supported by the following grants: GRANIMETRO (CGL2010-15930); MICROMETEO (IPT-310000-2010-22).

  12. High resolution modelling results of the wind flow over Canary Islands during the meteorological situation of the extratropical storm Delta (28–30 November 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Baldasano

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available On 28–29 November 2005 an extratropical storm affected the Canary Islands causing significant damage related to high average wind speeds and intense gusts over some islands of the archipelago. Delta was the twenty-sixth tropical or subtropical storm of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. It represents an unusual meteorological phenomenon for that region, and its impacts were underestimated by the different operational meteorological forecasts during the previous days of the arrival of the low near Canary Islands. The aim of this study is to reproduce the local effects of the flow that were observed over the Canary Islands during the travel of the Delta storm near the region using high-resolution mesoscale meteorological simulations. The Advanced Research Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW is applied at 9, 3 and 1 km horizontal resolution using ECMWF forecasts as initial and boundary conditions. The high-resolution simulation will outline the main features that contributed to the high wind speeds observed in the archipelago. Variations in vertical static stability, vertical windshear and the intense synoptic winds of the southwestern part of Delta with a warm core at 850 hPa were the main characteristics that contributed to the development and amplification of intense gravity waves while the large-scale flow interacted with the complex topography of the islands.

  13. Physical modeling of long-wave run-up mitigation using submerged breakwaters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yu-Ting; Wu, Yun-Ta; Hwung, Hwung-Hweng; Yang, Ray-Yeng

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazard due to tsunami inundation inland has been viewed as a crucial issue for coastal engineering community. The 2004 India Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami were caused by mega scale earthquakes that brought tremendous catastrophe in the disaster regions. It is thus of great importance to develop innovative approach to achieve the reduction and mitigation of tsunami hazards. In this study, new experiments have been carried out in a laboratory-scale to investigate the physical process of long-wave through submerged breakwaters built upon a mild slope. Solitary-wave is employed to represent the characteristic of long-wave with infinite wavelength and wave period. Our goal is twofold. First of all, through changing the positions of single breakwater and multiple breakwaters upon a mild slope, the optimal locations of breakwaters can be pointed out by means of maximum run-up reduction. Secondly, through using a state-of-the-art measuring technique Bubble Image Velocimetry, which features non-intrusive and image-based measurement, the wave kinematics in the highly aerated region due to solitary-wave shoaling, breaking and uprush can be quantitated. Therefore, the mitigation of long-wave due to the construction of submerged breakwaters built upon a mild slope can be evaluated not only for imaging run-up and run-down characteristics but also for measuring turbulent velocity fields due to breaking wave. Although we understand the most devastating tsunami hazards cannot be fully mitigated with impossibility, this study is to provide quantitated information on what kind of artificial coastal structure that can withstand which level of wave loads.

  14. A flu by any other name: why the World Health Organization should adopt the World Meteorological Association's storm naming system as a model for naming emerging infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schein, Rebecca; Bruls, Sand; Busch, Vincent; Wilson, Kumanan; Hershfield, Larry; Keelan, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    This article explores the factors that contributed to the use of different names for H1N1 by diverse actors in the early stages of the pandemic of 2009 and discusses the implications of inconsistent naming practices for the public's understanding of the virus and the credibility of scientists and health authorities. The authors propose a naming protocol for novel variants modeled after the World Meteorological Association's practice for naming weather events, a model that would enable accurate transmission of technical information among experts and provide a stable name for public use, even in the context of incomplete or changing scientific understanding of the nature of the pathogen.

  15. Classical running and symmetry breaking in models with two extra dimensions

    CERN Document Server

    Papineau, C

    2007-01-01

    We consider a codimension two scalar theory with brane-localised Higgs type potential. The six-dimensional field has Dirichlet boundary condition on the bounds of the transverse compact space. The regularisation of the brane singularity yields renormalisation group evolution for the localised couplings at the classical level. In particular, a tachyonic mass term grows at large distances and hits a Landau pole. We exhibit a peculiar value of the bare coupling such that the running mass parameter becomes large precisely at the compactification scale, and the effective four-dimensional zero mode is massless. Above the critical coupling, spontaneous symmetry breaking occurs and there is a very light state.

  16. Up and running with AutoCAD 2014 2D and 3D drawing and modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Gindis, Elliot

    2013-01-01

    Get ""Up and Running"" with AutoCAD using Gindis's combination of step-by-step instruction, examples, and insightful explanations. The emphasis from the beginning is on core concepts and practical application of AutoCAD in architecture, engineering and design. Equally useful in instructor-led classroom training, self-study, or as a professional reference, the book is written with the user in mind by a long-time AutoCAD professional and instructor based on what works in the industry and the classroom. Strips away complexities, both real and perceived, and reduces AutoCAD t

  17. Running Linux

    CERN Document Server

    Dalheimer, Matthias Kalle

    2006-01-01

    The fifth edition of Running Linux is greatly expanded, reflecting the maturity of the operating system and the teeming wealth of software available for it. Hot consumer topics such as audio and video playback applications, groupware functionality, and spam filtering are covered, along with the basics in configuration and management that always made the book popular.

  18. RUN COORDINATION

    CERN Multimedia

    C. Delaere

    2013-01-01

    Since the LHC ceased operations in February, a lot has been going on at Point 5, and Run Coordination continues to monitor closely the advance of maintenance and upgrade activities. In the last months, the Pixel detector was extracted and is now stored in the pixel lab in SX5; the beam pipe has been removed and ME1/1 removal has started. We regained access to the vactank and some work on the RBX of HB has started. Since mid-June, electricity and cooling are back in S1 and S2, allowing us to turn equipment back on, at least during the day. 24/7 shifts are not foreseen in the next weeks, and safety tours are mandatory to keep equipment on overnight, but re-commissioning activities are slowly being resumed. Given the (slight) delays accumulated in LS1, it was decided to merge the two global runs initially foreseen into a single exercise during the week of 4 November 2013. The aim of the global run is to check that we can run (parts of) CMS after several months switched off, with the new VME PCs installed, th...

  19. Integrating Geo-Spatial Data for Regional Landslide Susceptibility Modeling in Consideration of Run-Out Signature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, J.-S.; Tsai, F.; Chiang, S.-H.

    2016-06-01

    This study implements a data mining-based algorithm, the random forests classifier, with geo-spatial data to construct a regional and rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility model. The developed model also takes account of landslide regions (source, non-occurrence and run-out signatures) from the original landslide inventory in order to increase the reliability of the susceptibility modelling. A total of ten causative factors were collected and used in this study, including aspect, curvature, elevation, slope, faults, geology, NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), rivers, roads and soil data. Consequently, this study transforms the landslide inventory and vector-based causative factors into the pixel-based format in order to overlay with other raster data for constructing the random forests based model. This study also uses original and edited topographic data in the analysis to understand their impacts to the susceptibility modeling. Experimental results demonstrate that after identifying the run-out signatures, the overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient have been reached to be become more than 85 % and 0.8, respectively. In addition, correcting unreasonable topographic feature of the digital terrain model also produces more reliable modelling results.

  20. Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in Norway based on two methods for transferring regional climate model results to meteorological station sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beldring, Stein; Engen-Skaugen, Torill; Førland, Eirik J.; Roald, Lars A.

    2008-05-01

    Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in Norway have been estimated through combination of results from the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios, global climate models from the Hadley Centre and the Max-Planck Institute, and dynamical downscaling using the RegClim HIRHAM regional climate model. Temperature and precipitation simulations from the regional climate model were transferred to meteorological station sites using two different approaches, the delta change or perturbation method and an empirical adjustment procedure that reproduces observed monthly means and standard deviations for the control period. These climate scenarios were used for driving a spatially distributed version of the HBV hydrological model, yielding a set of simulations for the baseline period 1961-1990 and projections of climate change impacts on hydrological processes for the period 2071-2100. A comparison between the two methods used for transferring regional climate model results to meteorological station sites is provided by comparing the results from the hydrological model for basins located in different parts of Norway. Projected changes in runoff are linked to changes in the snow regime. Snow cover will be more unstable and the snowmelt flood will occur earlier in the year. Increased rainfall leads to higher runoff in the autumn and winter.

  1. Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in Norway based on two methods for transferring regional climate model results to meteorological station sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beldring, Stein; Roald, Lars A. (Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, PO Box 5091 Majorstua, 0301 Oslo (Norway)). e-mail: stein.beldring@nve.no; Engen-Skaugen, Torill; Foerland, Eirik J. (Norwegian Meteorological Inst., PO Box 43 Blindern, 0313 Oslo (Norway))

    2008-07-01

    Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in Norway have been estimated through combination of results from the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios, global climate models from the Hadley Centre and the Max- Planck Institute, and dynamical downscaling using the RegClim HIRHAM regional climate model. Temperature and precipitation simulations from the regional climate model were transferred to meteorological station sites using two different approaches, the delta change or perturbation method and an empirical adjustment procedure that reproduces observed monthly means and standard deviations for the control period. These climate scenarios were used for driving a spatially distributed version of the HBV hydrological model, yielding a set of simulations for the baseline period 1961- 1990 and projections of climate change impacts on hydrological processes for the period 2071-2100. A comparison between the two methods used for transferring regional climate model results to meteorological station sites is provided by comparing the results from the hydrological model for basins located in different parts of Norway. Projected changes in runoff are linked to changes in the snow regime. Snow cover will be more unstable and the snow melt flood will occur earlier in the year. Increased rainfall leads to higher runoff in the autumn and winter

  2. The Tourism Market of Australia – A Model of Managerial Performance in Running an Exotic Tourist Destination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai Daniela

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the performance management that government decision-making bodies involve in organizing tourism in Australia. The proposed quantitative indicators evaluate the managerial performance in running this system: macroeconomic indicators of domestic and international tourist flows and their impact on the Australian economy. The conclusion is that the national tourism development strategy adopted in Australia, through its objectives and identified strategic options, offers the potential to enhance the competitiveness of the tourism industry. The interim results of its implementation demonstrate its effectiveness: in Australia, tourism has become the real driver of socioeconomic progress, thus a model of performance management in running a potentially valuable tourist destinations.

  3. Modeling Fall Run Chinook Salmon Populations in the San Joaquin River Basin Using an Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keyantash, J.; Quinn, N. W.; Hidalgo, H. G.; Dracup, J. A.

    2002-12-01

    The number of chinook salmon returning to spawn during the fall run (September-November) were separately modeled for three San Joaquin River tributaries-the Stanislaus, Tuolumne, and Merced Rivers-to determine the sensitivity of salmon populations to hydrologic alterations associated with potential climate change. The modeling was accomplished using a feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) with error backpropagation. Inputs to the ANN included modeled monthly river temperature and streamflow data for each tributary, and were lagged multiple years to include the effects of antecedent environmental conditions upon populations of salmon throughout their life histories. Temperature and streamflow conditions at downstream locations in each tributary were computed using the California Dept. of Water Resources' DSM-2 model. Inputs to the DSM-2 model originated from regional climate modeling under a CO2 doubling scenario. Annual population data for adult chinook salmon (1951-present) were provided by the California Dept. of Fish and Game, and were used for supervised training of the ANN. It was determined that Stanislaus, Tuolumne and Merced River chinook runs could be impacted by alterations to the hydroclimatology of the San Joaquin basin.

  4. Spectral Running and Non-Gaussianity from Slow-Roll Inflation in Generalised Two--Field Models

    CERN Document Server

    Choi, Ki-Young; van de Bruck, Carsten

    2008-01-01

    Theories beyond the standard model such as string theory motivate low energy effective field theories with several scalar fields which are not only coupled through a potential but also through their kinetic terms. For such theories we derive the general formulae for the running of the spectral indices for the adiabatic, isocurvature and correlation spectra in the case of two field inflation. We also compute the expected non-Gaussianity in such models for specific forms of the potentials. We find that the coupling has little impact on the level of non-Gaussianity during inflation.

  5. Classification of Meteorological Drought

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Qiang; Zou Xukai; Xiao Fengjin; Lu Houquan; Liu Haibo; Zhu Changhan; An Shunqing

    2011-01-01

    Background The national standard of the Classification of Meteorological Drought (GB/T 20481-2006) was developed by the National Climate Center in cooperation with Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,National Meteorological Centre and Department of Forecasting and Disaster Mitigation under the China Meteorological Administration (CMA),and was formally released and implemented in November 2006.In 2008,this Standard won the second prize of the China Standard Innovation and Contribution Awards issued by SAC.Developed through independent innovation,it is the first national standard published to monitor meteorological drought disaster and the first standard in China and around the world specifying the classification of drought.Since its release in 2006,the national standard of Classification of Meteorological Drought has been used by CMA as the operational index to monitor and drought assess,and gradually used by provincial meteorological sureaus,and applied to the drought early warning release standard in the Methods of Release and Propagation of Meteorological Disaster Early Warning Signal.

  6. Meteorological satellite systems

    CERN Document Server

    Tan, Su-Yin

    2014-01-01

    Meteorological Satellite Systems” is a primer on weather satellites and their Earth applications. This book reviews historic developments and recent technological advancements in GEO and polar orbiting meteorological satellites. It explores the evolution of these remote sensing technologies and their capabilities to monitor short- and long-term changes in weather patterns in response to climate change. Satellites developed by various countries, such as U.S. meteorological satellites, EUMETSAT, and Russian, Chinese, Japanese and Indian satellite platforms are reviewed. This book also discusses international efforts to coordinate meteorological remote sensing data collection and sharing. This title provides a ready and quick reference for information about meteorological satellites. It serves as a useful tool for a broad audience that includes students, academics, private consultants, engineers, scientists, and teachers.

  7. Wind Power Meteorology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundtang Petersen, Erik; Mortensen, Niels Gylling; Landberg, Lars

    : wind profiles and shear, turbulence and gust, and extreme winds. The data used in wind power meteorology stem mainly from three sources: onsite wind measurements, the synoptic networks, and the re-analysis projects. Wind climate analysis, wind resource estimation and siting further require a detailed......Wind power meteorology has evolved as an applied science, firmly founded on boundary-layer meteorology, but with strong links to climatology and geography. It concerns itself with three main areas: siting of wind turbines, regional wind resource assessment, and short-term prediction of the wind...... resource. The history, status and perspectives of wind power meteorology are presented, with emphasis on physical considerations and on its practical application. Following a global view of the wind resource, the elements of boundary layer meteorology which are most important for wind energy are reviewed...

  8. Comprehensive evaluation of multi-year real-time air quality forecasting using an online-coupled meteorology-chemistry model over southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yang; Hong, Chaopeng; Yahya, Khairunnisa; Li, Qi; Zhang, Qiang; He, Kebin

    2016-08-01

    An online-coupled meteorology-chemistry model, WRF/Chem-MADRID, has been deployed for real time air quality forecast (RT-AQF) in southeastern U.S. since 2009. A comprehensive evaluation of multi-year RT-AQF shows overall good performance for temperature and relative humidity at 2-m (T2, RH2), downward surface shortwave radiation (SWDOWN) and longwave radiation (LWDOWN), and cloud fraction (CF), ozone (O3) and fine particles (PM2.5) at surface, tropospheric ozone residuals (TOR) in O3 seasons (May-September), and column NO2 in winters (December-February). Moderate-to-large biases exist in wind speed at 10-m (WS10), precipitation (Precip), cloud optical depth (COT), ammonium (NH4+), sulfate (SO42-), and nitrate (NO3-) from the IMPROVE and SEARCH networks, organic carbon (OC) at IMPROVE, and elemental carbon (EC) and OC at SEARCH, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and column carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and formaldehyde (HCHO) in both O3 and winter seasons, column nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in O3 seasons, and TOR in winters. These biases indicate uncertainties in the boundary layer and cloud process treatments (e.g., surface roughness, microphysics cumulus parameterization), emissions (e.g., O3 and PM precursors, biogenic, mobile, and wildfire emissions), upper boundary conditions for all major gases and PM2.5 species, and chemistry and aerosol treatments (e.g., winter photochemistry, aerosol thermodynamics). The model shows overall good skills in reproducing the observed multi-year trends and inter-seasonal variability in meteorological and radiative variables such as T2, WS10, Precip, SWDOWN, and LWDOWN, and relatively well in reproducing the observed trends in surface O3 and PM2.5, but relatively poor in reproducing the observed column abundances of CO, NO2, SO2, HCHO, TOR, and AOD. The sensitivity simulations using satellite-constrained boundary conditions for O3 and CO show substantial improvement for both spatial distribution and domain-mean performance

  9. A mechanistic model on the role of "radially-running" collagen fibers on dissection properties of human ascending thoracic aorta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Siladitya; Tsamis, Alkiviadis; Pasta, Salvatore; D'Amore, Antonio; Gleason, Thomas G; Vorp, David A; Maiti, Spandan

    2014-03-21

    Aortic dissection (AoD) is a common condition that often leads to life-threatening cardiovascular emergency. From a biomechanics viewpoint, AoD involves failure of load-bearing microstructural components of the aortic wall, mainly elastin and collagen fibers. Delamination strength of the aortic wall depends on the load-bearing capacity and local micro-architecture of these fibers, which may vary with age, disease and aortic location. Therefore, quantifying the role of fiber micro-architecture on the delamination strength of the aortic wall may lead to improved understanding of AoD. We present an experimentally-driven modeling paradigm towards this goal. Specifically, we utilize collagen fiber micro-architecture, obtained in a parallel study from multi-photon microscopy, in a predictive mechanistic framework to characterize the delamination strength. We then validate our model against peel test experiments on human aortic strips and utilize the model to predict the delamination strength of separate aortic strips and compare with experimental findings. We observe that the number density and failure energy of the radially-running collagen fibers control the peel strength. Furthermore, our model suggests that the lower delamination strength previously found for the circumferential direction in human aorta is related to a lower number density of radially-running collagen fibers in that direction. Our model sets the stage for an expanded future study that could predict AoD propagation in patient-specific aortic geometries and better understand factors that may influence propensity for occurrence.

  10. Arctic hydrology and meteorology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kane, D.L.

    1989-01-01

    To date, five years of hydrologic and meteorologic data have been collected at Imnavait Creek near Toolik Lake, Alaska. This is the most complete set of field data of this type collected in the Arctic of North America. These data have been used in process-oriented research to increase our understanding of atmosphere/hydrosphere/biosphere/lithosphere interactions. Basically, we are monitoring heat and mass transfer between various spheres to quantify rates. These could be rates of mass movement such as hillslope flow or rates of heat transfer for active layer thawing or combined heat and mass processes such as evapotranspiration. We have utilized a conceptual model to predict hydrologic processes. To test the success of this model, we are comparing our predicted rates of runoff and snowmelt to measured valves. We have also used a surface energy model to simulate active layer temperatures. The final step in this modeling effort to date was to predict what impact climatic warming would have on active layer thicknesses and how this will influence the hydrology of our research watershed by examining several streambeds.

  11. Running Club

    CERN Multimedia

    Running Club

    2011-01-01

    The cross country running season has started well this autumn with two events: the traditional CERN Road Race organized by the Running Club, which took place on Tuesday 5th October, followed by the ‘Cross Interentreprises’, a team event at the Evaux Sports Center, which took place on Saturday 8th October. The participation at the CERN Road Race was slightly down on last year, with 65 runners, however the participants maintained the tradition of a competitive yet friendly atmosphere. An ample supply of refreshments before the prize giving was appreciated by all after the race. Many thanks to all the runners and volunteers who ensured another successful race. The results can be found here: https://espace.cern.ch/Running-Club/default.aspx CERN participated successfully at the cross interentreprises with very good results. The teams succeeded in obtaining 2nd and 6th place in the Mens category, and 2nd place in the Mixed category. Congratulations to all. See results here: http://www.c...

  12. RUN COORDINATION

    CERN Multimedia

    M. Chamizo

    2012-01-01

      On 17th January, as soon as the services were restored after the technical stop, sub-systems started powering on. Since then, we have been running 24/7 with reduced shift crew — Shift Leader and DCS shifter — to allow sub-detectors to perform calibration, noise studies, test software upgrades, etc. On 15th and 16th February, we had the first Mid-Week Global Run (MWGR) with the participation of most sub-systems. The aim was to bring CMS back to operation and to ensure that we could run after the winter shutdown. All sub-systems participated in the readout and the trigger was provided by a fraction of the muon systems (CSC and the central RPC wheel). The calorimeter triggers were not available due to work on the optical link system. Initial checks of different distributions from Pixels, Strips, and CSC confirmed things look all right (signal/noise, number of tracks, phi distribution…). High-rate tests were done to test the new CSC firmware to cure the low efficiency ...

  13. RUN COORDINATION

    CERN Multimedia

    Christophe Delaere

    2013-01-01

    The focus of Run Coordination during LS1 is to monitor closely the advance of maintenance and upgrade activities, to smooth interactions between subsystems and to ensure that all are ready in time to resume operations in 2015 with a fully calibrated and understood detector. After electricity and cooling were restored to all equipment, at about the time of the last CMS week, recommissioning activities were resumed for all subsystems. On 7 October, DCS shifts began 24/7 to allow subsystems to remain on to facilitate operations. That culminated with the Global Run in November (GriN), which   took place as scheduled during the week of 4 November. The GriN has been the first centrally managed operation since the beginning of LS1, and involved all subdetectors but the Pixel Tracker presently in a lab upstairs. All nights were therefore dedicated to long stable runs with as many subdetectors as possible. Among the many achievements in that week, three items may be highlighted. First, the Strip...

  14. Application of the model ‘Heat Source’ to assess the influence of meteorological components on stream temperature and simulation accuracy under heat wave conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heidelinde Trimmel

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Stream temperature is one of the most important factors for aquatic organism, but also regulates drinking water quality, which are both threatened by temperature rises. Atmospheric heat fluxes are primary drivers of stream temperature changes, all of them dependent on the rivers' openness to sky.To be able to simulate stream temperature in rivers of complex terrain and shaded by riparian vegetation a deterministic model including all shading processes was used and validated for the application for Eastern Austrian lowland rivers during summer and the heat wave 2–8 August 2013. The global radiation was included as direct input, which lead to an improvement. It is shown, that both net short wave radiation and evaporation are the most influential components under heat wave conditions and that both are subject to the influence of shading by topography and vegetation. The forward propagation of measurement imprecisions of atmospheric input parameters on simulated water temperature was calculated. The total model imprecision caused by measurement errors of sky obstructing elements (+1.24/−1.40 °C exceeds the error caused by measurement errors of meteorological input parameters (+0.66/−0.70 °C. The most important sky obstructing elements are vegetation height and vegetation density. A total model imprecision caused by measurement errors of meteorological and shading input parameters is calculated with +1.90/−2.10 °C. While the errors caused by meteorological input are expected much smaller under normal conditions, sky view reducing errors are realistic or even underestimated.

  15. Modeling study on the air quality impacts from emission reductions and atypical meteorological conditions during the 2008 Beijing Olympics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Jia; Zhang, Yang; Wang, Shuxiao; Liu, Xiaohuan; Cheng, Shuhui; Zhang, Qiang; Chen, Yaosheng; Streets, David G.; Jang, Carey; Hao, Jiming; Wang, Wenxing

    2011-04-01

    Understanding of the relative impacts of emission reductions and meteorological variations on air quality during the 2008 Beijing Olympics has an important policy implication. In this work, detailed process analyses and sensitivity simulations under different emission and meteorology scenarios were conducted using CMAQ and the Process Analysis tool to quantify the air quality benefits from emission reductions and meteorological variations in August 2008. The results indicate that emission-driven changes dominate surface concentration reductions of SO 2, NO 2, VOCs, daily maxima O 3 and PM 2.5 by -11% to -83%. The effect of meteorology-driven changes on species concentrations can be either ways (by -46% to 105%) at different locations. The dominant processes contributing to O 3, PM 2.5, SO 42-, NO 3-, and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) are identified. Gas-phase chemistry is a major process for O 3 production, and PM processes are dominant sources for PM 2.5 in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The reduced emissions weaken the source contributions of gas-phase chemistry to O 3 and those of PM processes to PM 2.5, with weaker vertical mixing processes and horizontal transport in the PBL. Compared with 2007, 2008 has a higher humidity, lower temperature and more precipitation that benefit O 3 reduction within the PBL, and a weaker vertical mixing that disbenefits reductions of all pollutants concentrations. Stronger process contributions of cloud processes (e.g., below- and in-cloud scavenging, and wet deposition) in 2008 help reduce concentrations of PM 2.5, NO 3-, and SOA, but they (e.g., aqueous-phase chemistry) enhance surface SO 42- concentrations. Smaller process contributions of aerosol processes help reduce the concentrations of SOA and SO 42- but enhance NO 3- and PM 2.5 in lower layers (1-6) due to the evaporation of NO 3-. The ratios of P O /P increase under the controlled simulation, indicating that the emission control actions enforced during the 2008

  16. REAL STOCK PRICES AND THE LONG-RUN MONEY DEMAND FUNCTION IN MALAYSIA: Evidence from Error Correction Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naziruddin Abdullah

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available This study adopts the error correction model to empirically investigate the role of real stock prices in the long run-money demand in the Malaysian financial or money market for the period 1977: Q1-1997: Q2. Specifically, an attempt is made to check whether the real narrow money (M1/P is cointegrated with the selected variables like industrial production index (IPI, one-year T-Bill rates (TB12, and real stock prices (RSP. If a cointegration between the variables, i.e., the dependent and independent variables, is found to be the case, it may imply that there exists a long-run co-movement among these variables in the Malaysian money market. From the empirical results it is found that the cointegration between money demand and real stock prices (RSP is positive, implying that in the long run there is a positive association between real stock prices (RSP and demand for real narrow money (M1/P. The policy implication that can be extracted from this study is that an increase in stock prices is likely to necessitate an expansionary monetary policy to prevent nominal income or inflation target from undershooting.

  17. Large-eddy simulation of turbulent winds during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident by coupling with a meso-scale meteorological simulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakayama, H.; Takemi, T.; Nagai, H.

    2015-06-01

    A significant amount of radioactive material was accidentally discharged into the atmosphere from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant from 12 March 2011, which produced high contaminated areas over a wide region in Japan. In conducting regional-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations, the computer-based nuclear emergency response system WSPEEDI-II developed by Japan Atomic Energy Agency was used. Because this system is driven by a meso-scale meteorological (MM) model, it is difficult to reproduce small-scale wind fluctuations due to the effects of local terrain variability and buildings within a nuclear facility that are not explicitly represented in MM models. In this study, we propose a computational approach to couple an LES-based CFD model with a MM model for detailed simulations of turbulent winds with buoyancy effects under real meteorological conditions using turbulent inflow technique. Compared to the simple measurement data, especially, the 10 min averaged wind directions of the LES differ by more than 30 degrees during some period of time. However, distribution patterns of wind speeds, directions, and potential temperature are similar to the MM data. This implies that our coupling technique has potential performance to provide detailed data on contaminated area in the nuclear accidents.

  18. Surface meteorology and Solar Energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stackhouse, Paul W. (Principal Investigator)

    The Release 5.1 Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) data contains parameters formulated for assessing and designing renewable energy systems. Parameters fall under 11 categories including: Solar cooking, solar thermal applications, solar geometry, tilted solar panels, energy storage systems, surplus product storage systems, cloud information, temperature, wind, other meteorological factors, and supporting information. This latest release contains new parameters based on recommendations by the renewable energy industry and it is more accurate than previous releases. On-line plotting capabilities allow quick evaluation of potential renewable energy projects for any region of the world. The SSE data set is formulated from NASA satellite- and reanalysis-derived insolation and meteorological data for the 10-year period July 1983 through June 1993. Results are provided for 1 degree latitude by 1 degree longitude grid cells over the globe. Average daily and monthly measurements for 1195 World Radiation Data Centre ground sites are also available. [Mission Objectives] The SSE project contains insolation and meteorology data intended to aid in the development of renewable energy systems. Collaboration between SSE and technology industries such as the Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables ( HOMER ) may aid in designing electric power systems that employ some combination of wind turbines, photovoltaic panels, or diesel generators to produce electricity. [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1983-07-01; Stop_Date=1993-06-30] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180].

  19. The 14 TeV LHC Takes Aim at SUSY: A No-Scale Supergravity Model for LHC Run 2

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Tianjun; Nanopoulos, Dimitri V; Walker, Joel W

    2015-01-01

    The Supergravity model named No-Scale ${\\cal F}$-$SU(5)$, which is based upon the flipped $SU$(5) Grand Unified Theory (GUT) with additional TeV-scale vector-like flippon multiplets, has been partially probed during the LHC Run 1 at 7-8 TeV, though the majority of its model space remains viable and should be accessible by the 13-14 TeV LHC during Run 2. The model framework possesses the rather unique capacity to provide a light CP-even Higgs boson mass in the favored 124-126 GeV window while simultaneously retaining a testably light supersymmetry (SUSY) spectrum. We summarize the outlook for No-Scale ${\\cal F}$-$SU(5)$ at the 13-14 TeV LHC and review a promising methodology for the discrimination of its long-chain cascade decay signature. We further show that proportional dependence of all model scales upon the unified gaugino mass $M_{1/2}$ minimizes electroweak fine-tuning, allowing the $Z$-boson mass $M_Z$ to be expressed as an explicit function of $M_{1/2}$, $M_Z^2 = M_Z^2 (M_{1/2}^2)$, with implicit depe...

  20. Large-eddy simulation of plume dispersion in the central district of Oklahoma City by coupling a meso-scale meteorological simulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakayama, H.

    2016-12-01

    The model validation of an large-eddy simulation (LES)-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model coupled to a numerical weather prediction (NWP) is carried out. The Joint Urban 2003 field experimental data of tracer gas concentration released as puff and 30-minute continuous releases for the case of IOP6 are used to evaluate the performance of the coupling approach. The model used for a mesoscale meteorological simulation is the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the Advanced Research WRF Version 3.3.1 (Skamarock et al. 2008). We use a nesting capability to resolve the Oklahoma City region by setting two-way nested, three computational domains. The CFD model used here is based on an LES (Nakayama et al., 2015). The LES model is configured using two domains with one-way between parent and nested domains. The parent and nested domains are set to generate urban boundary layer flows and conduct detailed simulations of plume dispersion within the urban central district, respectively. In the LES model, wind velocity and potential temperature data obtained by the WRF model are imposed at lateral boundaries, and time-dependent turbulent inflow conditions are prescribed using the recycling inflow technique proposed by Kataoka and Mizuno (2002). The surface heat fluxes are calculated using the surface potential temperature obtained by the WRF model.The LES results show that vertical profiles of wind speed, wind direction, and potential temperature are similar to those of the WRF. This indicates that the target meteorological conditions are successfully reproduced in the LES model. The time-averaged concentrations of the LES are considerably different from those of the field experimental data at the several points especially for the puff case. However, the LES generally show reasonable performance in comparison to the experimental data through the continuous and puff release cases. It is concluded that our approach is physically reasonable.

  1. Statistical modelling of wildfire size and intensity: a step toward meteorological forecasting of summer extreme fire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, C.; Keribin, C.; Drobinski, P.; Turquety, S.

    2015-12-01

    In this article we investigate the use of statistical methods for wildfire risk assessment in the Mediterranean Basin using three meteorological covariates, the 2 m temperature anomaly, the 10 m wind speed and the January-June rainfall occurrence anomaly. We focus on two remotely sensed characteristic fire variables, the burnt area (BA) and the fire radiative power (FRP), which are good proxies for fire size and intensity respectively. Using the fire data we determine an adequate parametric distribution function which fits best the logarithm of BA and FRP. We reconstruct the conditional density function of both variables with respect to the chosen meteorological covariates. These conditional density functions for the size and intensity of a single event give information on fire risk and can be used for the estimation of conditional probabilities of exceeding certain thresholds. By analysing these probabilities we find two fire risk regimes different from each other at the 90 % confidence level: a "background" summer fire risk regime and an "extreme" additional fire risk regime, which corresponds to higher probability of occurrence of larger fire size or intensity associated with specific weather conditions. Such a statistical approach may be the ground for a future fire risk alert system.

  2. Legionnaires’ disease from a cooling tower in a community outbreak in Lidköping, Sweden- epidemiological, environmental and microbiological investigation supported by meteorological modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulleryd Peter

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An outbreak of Legionnaires’ Disease took place in the Swedish town Lidköping on Lake Vänern in August 2004 and the number of pneumonia cases at the local hospital increased markedly. As soon as the first patients were diagnosed, health care providers were informed and an outbreak investigation was launched. Methods Classical epidemiological investigation, diagnostic tests, environmental analyses, epidemiological typing and meteorological methods. Results Thirty-two cases were found. The median age was 62 years (range 36 – 88 and 22 (69% were males. No common indoor exposure was found. Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 was found at two industries, each with two cooling towers. In one cooling tower exceptionally high concentrations, 1.2 × 109 cfu/L, were found. Smaller amounts were also found in the other tower of the first industry and in one tower of the second plant. Sero- and genotyping of isolated L. pneumophila serogroup 1 from three patients and epidemiologically suspected environmental strains supported the cooling tower with the high concentration as the source. In all, two L. pneumophila strains were isolated from three culture confirmed cases and both these strains were detected in the cooling tower, but one strain in another cooling tower as well. Meteorological modelling demonstrated probable spread from the most suspected cooling tower towards the town centre and the precise location of four cases that were stray visitors to Lidköping. Conclusions Classical epidemiological, environmental and microbiological investigation of an LD outbreak can be supported by meteorological modelling methods. The broad competence and cooperation capabilities in the investigation team from different authorities were of paramount importance in stopping this outbreak.

  3. Application of high resolution land use and land cover data for atmospheric modeling in the Houston-Galveston metropolitan area, Part I: Meteorological simulation results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Fang-Yi; Byun, Daewon W.

    To predict atmospheric conditions in an urban environment, the land surface processes must be accurately described through the use of detailed land use (LU) and land cover (LC) data. Use of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 25-category data, currently in the Fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5), with the Noah land surface model (LSM) and MRF (medium-range forecast) planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes resulted in the over-prediction of daytime temperatures in the Houston downtown area due to the inaccurate representation as a completely impervious surface. This bias could be corrected with the addition of canopy water in the urban areas from the evapotranspiration effects of urban vegetation. A more fundamental approach would be to utilize an LULC dataset that represents land surface features accurately. The Texas Forest Service (TFS) LULC dataset established with the LANDSAT satellite imagery correctly represents the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) area as mixtures of urban, residential, grass, and forest LULC types. This paper describes how the Noah LSM and PBL schemes in the MM5 were modified to accommodate the TFS-LULC data. Comparisons with various meteorological measurements show that the MM5 simulation made with the high resolution LULC data improves the boundary layer mixing conditions and local wind patterns in the Houston Ship Channel, which is a critically important anthropogenic emission area affecting the HGB air pollution problems. In particular, when the synoptic flows are weak, the improved LULC data simulates the asymmetrically elongated Houston heat island convergence zone influencing the location of the afternoon Gulf of Mexico sea-breeze front and the Galveston Bay breeze flows. This paper is part I of a two-part study and focuses on the meteorological simulation. In part II, effects of using the different meteorological inputs on air quality simulations are discussed.

  4. Development of a statistical model to identify spatial and meteorological drivers of elevated O3 in Nevada and its application to other rural mountainous regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fine, Rebekka; Miller, Matthieu B; Gustin, Mae Sexauer

    2015-10-15

    Measurements of O3 at relatively remote monitoring sites are useful for quantifying baseline O3, and subsequently the magnitude of O3 not controllable by local regulations. As the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for O3 becomes more stringent, there is an increased need to quantify baseline O3 particularly in the Western US, where regional and global sources can significantly enhance O3 measured at surface sites, yielding baseline mixing ratios approaching or exceeding the NAAQS threshold. Past work has indicated that meteorological conditions as well as site specific spatial characteristics (e.g. elevation, basin size, gradient) are significantly correlated with O3 intercepted at rural monitoring sites. Here, we use 3 years of measurements from sites throughout rural Nevada to develop a categorical tree model to identify spatial and meteorological characteristics that are associated with elevated baseline O3. Data from other sites in the Intermountain Western US are used to test the applicability of the model for sites throughout the region. Our analyses indicate that increased elevation and basin size were associated with increased frequency of elevated O3. On a daily time scale, relative humidity had the strongest association with observed MDA8 O3. Seventy-four percent of MDA8 O3 observations>60 ppbv occurred when daily minimum relative humidity was 60 ppbv whereas including upper air meteorological measurements improved the accuracy of predicting periods when O3 was >60 ppbv. These findings indicate that transport, rather than local production, influences O3 measurements in Nevada, and that high elevation sites in rural Nevada, are representative of baseline conditions in the Intermountain Western US.

  5. A numerical study of tsunami wave impact and run-up on coastal cliffs using a CIP-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xizeng; Chen, Yong; Huang, Zhenhua; Hu, Zijun; Gao, Yangyang

    2017-05-01

    There is a general lack of understanding of tsunami wave interaction with complex geographies, especially the process of inundation. Numerical simulations are performed to understand the effects of several factors on tsunami wave impact and run-up in the presence of gentle submarine slopes and coastal cliffs, using an in-house code, a constrained interpolation profile (CIP)-based model. The model employs a high-order finite difference method, the CIP method, as the flow solver; utilizes a VOF-type method, the tangent of hyperbola for interface capturing/slope weighting (THINC/SW) scheme, to capture the free surface; and treats the solid boundary by an immersed boundary method. A series of incident waves are arranged to interact with varying coastal geographies. Numerical results are compared with experimental data and good agreement is obtained. The influences of gentle submarine slope, coastal cliff and incident wave height are discussed. It is found that the tsunami amplification factor varying with incident wave is affected by gradient of cliff slope, and the critical value is about 45°. The run-up on a toe-erosion cliff is smaller than that on a normal cliff. The run-up is also related to the length of a gentle submarine slope with a critical value of about 2.292 m in the present model for most cases. The impact pressure on the cliff is extremely large and concentrated, and the backflow effect is non-negligible. Results of our work are highly precise and helpful in inverting tsunami source and forecasting disaster.

  6. Comparison of modelled and measured ozone concentrations and meteorology for a site in south-west Sweden: implications for ozone uptake calculations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klingberg, Jenny; Danielsson, Helena; Simpson, David; Pleijel, Håkan

    2008-09-01

    Measurements of ground-level ozone concentrations and meteorology (temperature, vapour pressure deficit (VPD), solar radiation) at the monitoring site Ostad (south-west Sweden) were compared to data from the corresponding grid in the EMEP photo-oxidant model for 1997, 1999 and 2000. The influence of synoptic weather on the agreement between model and measurements was studied. Implications of differences between modelled and observed inputs for ozone flux calculations for wheat and potato were investigated. The EMEP model output of ozone, temperature and VPD correlated well with measurements during daytime. Deviations were larger during the night, especially in calm conditions, attributed to local climatological conditions at the monitoring site deviating from average conditions of the grid. These differences did not lead to significant differences in calculated ozone uptake, which was reproduced remarkably well. The uptake calculations were sensitive to errors in the ozone and temperature input data, especially when including a flux threshold.

  7. Parallel runs of a large air pollution model on a grid of Sun computers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alexandrov, V.N.; Owczarz, W.; Thomsen, Per Grove

    2004-01-01

    Large -scale air pollution models can successfully be used in different environmental studies. These models are described mathematically by systems of partial differential equations. Splitting procedures followed by discretization of the spatial derivatives leads to several large systems of ordin...

  8. Modelling Energy Loss Mechanisms and a Determination of the Electron Energy Scale for the CDF Run II W Mass Measurement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Riddick, Thomas [Univ. College London, Bloomsbury (United Kingdom)

    2012-06-15

    The calibration of the calorimeter energy scale is vital to measuring the mass of the W boson at CDF Run II. For the second measurement of the W boson mass at CDF Run II, two independent simulations were developed. This thesis presents a detailed description of the modification and validation of Bremsstrahlung and pair production modelling in one of these simulations, UCL Fast Simulation, comparing to both geant4 and real data where appropriate. The total systematic uncertainty on the measurement of the W boson mass in the W → eve channel from residual inaccuracies in Bremsstrahlung modelling is estimated as 6.2 ±3.2 MeV/c2 and the total systematic uncertainty from residual inaccuracies in pair production modelling is estimated as 2.8± 2.7 MeV=c2. Two independent methods are used to calibrate the calorimeter energy scale in UCL Fast Simulation; the results of these two methods are compared to produce a measurement of the Z boson mass as a cross-check on the accuracy of the simulation.

  9. Modelling the water and heat balances of the Mediterranean Sea using a two-basin model and available meteorological, hydrological, and ocean data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Shaltout

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a two-basin model of the water and heat balances of the Western and Eastern Mediterranean sub-basins (WMB and EMB, respectively over the 1958–2010 period using available meteorological and hydrological data. The results indicate that the simulated temperature and salinity in both studied Mediterranean sub-basins closely follow the reanalysed data. In addition, simulated surface water in the EMB had a higher mean temperature (by approximately 1.6°C and was more saline (by approximately 0.87 g kg−1 than in the WMB over the studied period. The net evaporation over the EMB (1.52 mm day−1 was approximately 1.7 times greater than over the WMB (0.88 mm day−1. The water balance of the Mediterranean Sea was controlled by net inflow through the Gibraltar Strait and Sicily Channel, the net evaporation rate and freshwater input. The heat balance simulations indicated that the heat loss from the water body was nearly balanced by the solar radiation to the water body, resulting in a net export (import of approximately 13 (11 W m−2 of heat from the WMB (to the EMB.

  10. RUN COORDINATION

    CERN Multimedia

    G. Rakness.

    2013-01-01

    After three years of running, in February 2013 the era of sub-10-TeV LHC collisions drew to an end. Recall, the 2012 run had been extended by about three months to achieve the full complement of high-energy and heavy-ion physics goals prior to the start of Long Shutdown 1 (LS1), which is now underway. The LHC performance during these exciting years was excellent, delivering a total of 23.3 fb–1 of proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV, 6.2 fb–1 at 7 TeV, and 5.5 pb–1 at 2.76 TeV. They also delivered 170 μb–1 lead-lead collisions at 2.76 TeV/nucleon and 32 nb–1 proton-lead collisions at 5 TeV/nucleon. During these years the CMS operations teams and shift crews made tremendous strides to commission the detector, repeatedly stepping up to meet the challenges at every increase of instantaneous luminosity and energy. Although it does not fully cover the achievements of the teams, a way to quantify their success is the fact that that...

  11. FleaTickRisk: a meteorological model developed to monitor and predict the activity and density of three tick species and the cat flea in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric Beugnet

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical modelling is quite a recent tool in epidemiology. Geographical information system (GIS combined with remote sensing (data collection and analysis provide valuable models, but the integration of climatologic models in parasitology and epidemiology is less common. The aim of our model, called “FleaTickRisk”, was to use meteorological data and forecasts to monitor the activity and density of some arthropods. Our parasitological model uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF meteorological model integrating biological parameters. The WRF model provides a temperature and humidity picture four times a day (at 6:00, 12:00, 18:00 and 24:00 hours. Its geographical resolution is 27 x 27 km over Europe (area between longitudes 10.5° W and 30° E and latitudes 37.75° N and 62° N. The model also provides weekly forecasts. Past data were compared and revalidated using current meteorological data generated by ground stations and weather satellites. The WRF model also includes geographical information stemming from United States Geophysical Survey biotope maps with a 30’’ spatial resolution (approximately 900 x 900 m. WRF takes into account specific climatic conditions due to valleys, altitudes, lakes and wind specificities. The biological parameters of Ixodes ricinus, Dermacentor reticulatus, Rhipicephalus sanguineus and Ctenocephalides felis felis were transformed into a matrix of activity. This activity matrix is expressed as a percentage, ranging from 0 to 100, for each interval of temperature x humidity. The activity of these arthropods is defined by their ability to infest hosts, take blood meals and reproduce. For each arthropod, the matrix was calculated using existing data collected under optimal temperature and humidity conditions, as well as the timing of the life cycle. The mathematical model integrating both the WRF model (meteorological data + geographical data and the biological matrix provides two indexes: an

  12. Coupled models of heat transfer and phase transformation for the run-out table in hot rolling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shui-xuan CHEN; Jun ZOU; Xin FU

    2008-01-01

    Mathematical models are been proposed to simulate the thermal and metallurgical behaviors of the strip occurring on the run-out table (ROT) in a hot strip mill. A variational method is utilized for the discretization of the governing transient conduction-convection equation, with heat transfer coefficients adaptively determined by the actual mill data. To consider the thermal effect of phase transformation during cooling, a constitutive equation for describing austenite decomposition kinetics of steel in air and water cooling zones is coupled with the heat transfer model. As the basic required inputs in the numerical simulations, thermal material properties are experimentally measured for three carbon steels and the least squares method is used to statistically derive regression models for the properties, including specific heat and thermal conductivity. The numerical simulation and experimental results show that the setup accuracy of the temperature prediction system of ROT is effectively improved.

  13. Snow Metamorphism and Albedo Process (SMAP) model for climate studies: Model validation using meteorological and snow impurity data measured at Sapporo, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niwano, Masashi; Aoki, Teruo; Kuchiki, Katsuyuki; Hosaka, Masahiro; Kodama, Yuji

    2012-09-01

    We developed a multilayered physical snowpack model named Snow Metamorphism and Albedo Process (SMAP), which is intended to be incorporated into general circulation models for climate simulations. To simulate realistic physical states of snowpack, SMAP incorporates a state-of-the-art physically based snow albedo model, which calculates snow albedo and solar heating profile in snowpack considering effects of snow grain size and snow impurities explicitly. We evaluated the performance of SMAP with meteorological and snow impurities (black carbon and dust) input data measured at Sapporo, Japan during two winters: 2007-2008 and 2008-2009, and found SMAP successfully reproduced all observed variations of physical properties of snowpack for both winters. We have thus confirmed that SMAP is suitable for climate simulations. With SMAP, we also investigated the effects of snow impurities on snowmelt at Sapporo during the two winters. We found that snowpack durations at Sapporo were shortened by 19 days during the 2007-2008 winter and by 16 days during the 2008-2009 winter due to radiative forcings caused by snow impurities. The estimated radiative forcings due to snow impurities during the accumulation periods were 3.7 W/m2 (it corresponds to albedo reduction in 0.05) and 3.2 W/m2 (albedo reduction in 0.05) for the 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 winters, respectively. While during the ablation periods they were 25.9 W/m2 (albedo reduction in 0.18) and 21.0 W/m2 (albedo reduction in 0.17) for each winter, respectively.

  14. US Marine Meteorological Journals

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This series consists of volumes entitled 'Meteorological Journal' (a regulation Navy-issue publication) which were to be completed by masters of merchant vessels...

  15. Wave Meteorology and Soaring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, Scott

    2008-01-01

    This viewgraph document reviews some mountain wave turbulence and operational hazards while soaring. Maps, photographs, and satellite images of the meteorological phenomena are included. Additionally, photographs of aircraft that sustained mountain wave damage are provided.

  16. Climate and meteorology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoitink, D.J.

    1995-06-01

    This section of the 1994 Hanford Site Environmental Report summarizes the significant activities conducted in 1994 to monitor the meteorology and climatology of the site. Meteorological measurements are taken to support Hanford Site emergency preparedness and response, Hanford Site operations, and atmospheric dispersion calculations. Climatological data are collected to help plan weather-dependent activities and are used as a resource to assess the environmental effects of Hanford Site operations.

  17. Simulating the effect of meteorological variability on a lake ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frassl, M. A.; Schlabing, D.; Eder, M. M.; Rothhaupt, K.-O.; Rinke, K.

    2012-04-01

    Water temperature is a main driver of phytoplankton development. On the one hand, temperature directly affects cell metabolism. On the other hand, the hydrodynamic regime with annual cycles of stratification and mixis affects the light and nutrient supply of the algae and thus governs cardinal events of phytoplankton development. This could be the timing of the spring bloom or the maximum biomass attained. However, the response of lake ecosystems dynamics to a changing climate is not only linked to a rising temperature, but also to inter-annual and -seasonal meteorological variability. Ecological models have proven to provide a useful tool for quantifying effects of a changing climate on lake ecosystems. Especially lake models are convenient for climate change studies as the meteorological input data directly drive the hydrodynamics of the lake, which, in turn, govern ecosystem dynamics. To account for the effect of rising temperature and increased variability, different meteorological time series are needed. A Vector-Autoregressive Weathergenerator is able to provide reliable time-series that sustain dependencies between different meteorological variables. Furthermore, it offers the possibility to run Monte Carlo simulations with past climatic conditions in comparison to scenarios of possible future climatic conditions. It thus provides a tool for both, including statistical properties of meteorological data and assessing uncertainties inherent in deterministic models. In this study, we applied a one-dimensional hydrodynamic-ecological lake model (DYRESM-CAEDYM) to a large monomictic lake. We ran Monte Carlo simulations with four different "what-if" scenarios (unchanged climate, increased mean temperature, higher variability and the combination of higher temperature and variability) and analysed changes in water temperature and cardinal events in phytoplankton dynamics. A detailed study on the hydrodynamic response of Lake Constance to climate change is presented

  18. Fuzzy rule-based macroinvertebrate habitat suitability models for running waters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broekhoven, Van E.; Adriaenssens, V.; Baets, De B.; Verdonschot, P.F.M.

    2006-01-01

    A fuzzy rule-based approach was applied to a macroinvertebrate habitat suitability modelling problem. The model design was based on a knowledge base summarising the preferences and tolerances of 86 macroinvertebrate species for four variables describing river sites in springs up to small rivers in t

  19. Damage Propagation Modeling for Aircraft Engine Run-to-Failure Simulation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper describes how damage propagation can be modeled within the modules of aircraft gas turbine engines. To that end, response surfaces of all sensors are...

  20. Impact of treadmill running and sex on hippocampal neurogenesis in the mouse model of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoxing Ma

    Full Text Available Hippocampal neurogenesis in the subgranular zone (SGZ of dentate gyrus (DG occurs throughout life and is regulated by pathological and physiological processes. The role of oxidative stress in hippocampal neurogenesis and its response to exercise or neurodegenerative diseases remains controversial. The present study was designed to investigate the impact of oxidative stress, treadmill exercise and sex on hippocampal neurogenesis in a murine model of heightened oxidative stress (G93A mice. G93A and wild type (WT mice were randomized to a treadmill running (EX or a sedentary (SED group for 1 or 4 wk. Immunohistochemistry was used to detect bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU labeled proliferating cells, surviving cells, and their phenotype, as well as for determination of oxidative stress (3-NT; 8-OHdG. BDNF and IGF1 mRNA expression was assessed by in situ hybridization. Results showed that: (1 G93A-SED mice had greater hippocampal neurogenesis, BDNF mRNA, and 3-NT, as compared to WT-SED mice. (2 Treadmill running promoted hippocampal neurogenesis and BDNF mRNA content and lowered DNA oxidative damage (8-OHdG in WT mice. (3 Male G93A mice showed significantly higher cell proliferation but a lower level of survival vs. female G93A mice. We conclude that G93A mice show higher hippocampal neurogenesis, in association with higher BDNF expression, yet running did not further enhance these phenomena in G93A mice, probably due to a 'ceiling effect' of an already heightened basal levels of hippocampal neurogenesis and BDNF expression.

  1. Comparing the performance of SIMD computers by running large air pollution models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brown, J.; Hansen, Per Christian; Wasniewski, J.

    1996-01-01

    To compare the performance and use of three massively parallel SIMD computers, we implemented a large air pollution model on these computers. Using a realistic large-scale model, we gained detailed insight about the performance of the computers involved when used to solve large-scale scientific...... problems that involve several types of numerical computations. The computers used in our study are the Connection Machines CM-200 and CM-5, and the MasPar MP-2216...

  2. runmlwin : A Program to Run the MLwiN Multilevel Modeling Software from within Stata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Leckie

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We illustrate how to fit multilevel models in the MLwiN package seamlessly from within Stata using the Stata program runmlwin. We argue that using MLwiN and Stata in combination allows researchers to capitalize on the best features of both packages. We provide examples of how to use runmlwin to fit continuous, binary, ordinal, nominal and mixed response multilevel models by both maximum likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation.

  3. Future Projection of Storm Surge at Tokyo Bay under RCP 8.5 Scenario by Meteorological-Ocean-Tide Coupled Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwamoto, T.; Nakamura, R.; Takagawa, T.; Shibayama, T.

    2016-12-01

    It is clearly valuable to accomplish well-reproduced storm surge model and conduct future projection for disaster prevention. In this study, the reproducibility of Meteorological-Ocean-Tide coupled model was validated by simulating typhoon Roke (2011) storm surge, which was recorded as the highest anomaly (119cm) at Tokyo tide station (JMA) in Tokyo Bay over the last 10 years. Furthermore, the future projection (2050) under global warming scenario (RCP8.5) was conducted. The coupled model was composed of 3 models; ARW-WRFV3 (Skamarock et al., 2008), FVCOM (Chen et al., 2011) and WXTide32. WRF firstly calculated downscaled meteorological field by using FiNal anaLysis (FNL) as initial/boundary (I/B) condition. In this calculation, single layer urban canopy model (Kusaka et al., 2001) and topography data from SRTM3 (90m mesh) and GSI (50m mesh) were applied. Then the output was used as I/B condition to FVCOM, which calculated storm surge. Finally tide level was calculated by adding storm surge to astronomical tide calculated by WXTide32. For 2050 case, sea surface temperature (SST) from 26 GCM under RCP8.5 was used for constructing pseudo global warming meteorological fields. In details, ensemble average of SST variation between 2006-2015 and 2041-2060 was added to FNL's SST by following Oya et al (2016). In this case, calculating astronomical tide is omitted due to the limitation of WXTide32. The reproduced result of typhoon Roke shows that the difference of maximum tide level (first peak) to the observation is less than 10cm, the difference of second peak is about 50cm. The future projection result shows that the increase of storm surge at Tokyo tide station is about 20cm and that at Funabashi is about 30cm. This intensification is mainly caused by wind speed increment, since the variation of low pressure due to higher SST is relatively small. Moreover, Funabashi is located in front of the open space at inner part of Tokyo Bay, Tokyo tide station is similar however

  4. A description of the FAMOUS (version XDBUA climate model and control run

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Osprey

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available FAMOUS is an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model of low resolution, capable of simulating approximately 120 years of model climate per wallclock day using current high performance computing facilities. It uses most of the same code as HadCM3, a widely used climate model of higher resolution and computational cost, and has been tuned to reproduce the same climate reasonably well. FAMOUS is useful for climate simulations where the computational cost makes the application of HadCM3 unfeasible, either because of the length of simulation or the size of the ensemble desired. We document a number of scientific and technical improvements to the original version of FAMOUS. These improvements include changes to the parameterisations of ozone and sea-ice which alleviate a significant cold bias from high northern latitudes and the upper troposphere, and the elimination of volume-averaged drifts in ocean tracers. A simple model of the marine carbon cycle has also been included. A particular goal of FAMOUS is to conduct millennial-scale paleoclimate simulations of Quaternary ice ages; to this end, a number of useful changes to the model infrastructure have been made.

  5. A low-order coupled chemistry meteorology model for testing online and offline data assimilation schemes: L95-GRS (v1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haussaire, J.-M.; Bocquet, M.

    2016-01-01

    Bocquet and Sakov (2013) introduced a low-order model based on the coupling of the chaotic Lorenz-95 (L95) model, which simulates winds along a mid-latitude circle, with the transport of a tracer species advected by this zonal wind field. This model, named L95-T, can serve as a playground for testing data assimilation schemes with an online model. Here, the tracer part of the model is extended to a reduced photochemistry module. This coupled chemistry meteorology model (CCMM), the L95-GRS (generic reaction set) model, mimics continental and transcontinental transport and the photochemistry of ozone, volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides. Its numerical implementation is described. The model is shown to reproduce the major physical and chemical processes being considered. L95-T and L95-GRS are specifically designed and useful for testing advanced data assimilation schemes, such as the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS), which combines the best of ensemble and variational methods. These models provide useful insights prior to the implementation of data assimilation methods into larger models. We illustrate their use with data assimilation schemes on preliminary yet instructive numerical experiments. In particular, online and offline data assimilation strategies can be conveniently tested and discussed with this low-order CCMM. The impact of observed chemical species concentrations on the wind field estimate can be quantitatively assessed. The impacts of the wind chaotic dynamics and of the chemical species non-chaotic but highly nonlinear dynamics on the data assimilation strategies are illustrated.

  6. Addressing Thermal Model Run Time Concerns of the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope using Astrophysics Focused Telescope Assets (WFIRST-AFTA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peabody, Hume; Guerrero, Sergio; Hawk, John; Rodriguez, Juan; McDonald, Carson; Jackson, Cliff

    2016-01-01

    The Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope using Astrophysics Focused Telescope Assets (WFIRST-AFTA) utilizes an existing 2.4 m diameter Hubble sized telescope donated from elsewhere in the federal government for near-infrared sky surveys and Exoplanet searches to answer crucial questions about the universe and dark energy. The WFIRST design continues to increase in maturity, detail, and complexity with each design cycle leading to a Mission Concept Review and entrance to the Mission Formulation Phase. Each cycle has required a Structural-Thermal-Optical-Performance (STOP) analysis to ensure the design can meet the stringent pointing and stability requirements. As such, the models have also grown in size and complexity leading to increased model run time. This paper addresses efforts to reduce the run time while still maintaining sufficient accuracy for STOP analyses. A technique was developed to identify slews between observing orientations that were sufficiently different to warrant recalculation of the environmental fluxes to reduce the total number of radiation calculation points. The inclusion of a cryocooler fluid loop in the model also forced smaller time-steps than desired, which greatly increases the overall run time. The analysis of this fluid model required mitigation to drive the run time down by solving portions of the model at different time scales. Lastly, investigations were made into the impact of the removal of small radiation couplings on run time and accuracy. Use of these techniques allowed the models to produce meaningful results within reasonable run times to meet project schedule deadlines.

  7. Non-linear relationship of hydrological drought responding to meteorological drought and impact of a large reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jiefeng; Chen, Xingwei; Yao, Huaxia; Gao, Lu; Chen, Ying; Liu, Meibing

    2017-08-01

    Exploring the relationship between hydrological and meteorological droughts under influence of large reservoirs is crucial for early warning of hydrological drought. This study took Jinjiang River basin in the southeast coastal region of China as an example, where the Shilong hydrometric station is influenced by a large reservoir (Shanmei), and the Anxi hydrological station is not. Based on monthly data of streamflow with precipitation and historical drought records from 1960 to 2010, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) series (representing meteorological drought and hydrological drought, respectively) were each calculated with a 3-month timescale. Run theory was then used to identify the characteristics of meteorological and hydrological drought, including duration and magnitude. The relationship with which hydrological drought responds to meteorological drought was established by a non-linear function model at the Anxi station and Shilong station which reflected the periods of natural condition without reservoir and reservoir-influence condition, respectively. The results indicate that (1) there was a clear non-linear relationship of hydrological drought and meteorological drought, and the threshold within which hydrological drought started to respond to meteorological drought was obtained according to the non-linear function model; (2) the operational activities of the Shanmei reservoir during 1983-2010 have significantly reduced the duration and magnitude of hydrological drought at the Shilong station compared to the natural-influence period of 1960-1982, which, in turn, altered the relationship between the hydrological drought and meteorological drought. The propagation process from meteorological to hydrological droughts was shortened because of the changed relationship.

  8. Assessing Wheat Frost Risk with the Support of GIS: An Approach Coupling a Growing Season Meteorological Index and a Hybrid Fuzzy Neural Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaojie Yue

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Crop frost, one kind of agro-meteorological disaster, often causes significant loss to agriculture. Thus, evaluating the risk of wheat frost aids scientific response to such disasters, which will ultimately promote food security. Therefore, this paper aims to propose an integrated risk assessment model of wheat frost, based on meteorological data and a hybrid fuzzy neural network model, taking China as an example. With the support of a geographic information system (GIS, a comprehensive method was put forward. Firstly, threshold temperatures of wheat frost at three growth stages were proposed, referring to phenology in different wheat growing areas and the meteorological standard of Degree of Crop Frost Damage (QX/T 88-2008. Secondly, a vulnerability curve illustrating the relationship between frost hazard intensity and wheat yield loss was worked out using hybrid fuzzy neural network model. Finally, the wheat frost risk was assessed in China. Results show that our proposed threshold temperatures are more suitable than using 0 °C in revealing the spatial pattern of frost occurrence, and hybrid fuzzy neural network model can further improve the accuracy of the vulnerability curve of wheat subject to frost with limited historical hazard records. Both these advantages ensure the precision of wheat frost risk assessment. In China, frost widely distributes in 85.00% of the total winter wheat planting area, but mainly to the north of 35°N; the southern boundary of wheat frost has moved northward, potentially because of the warming climate. There is a significant trend that suggests high risk areas will enlarge and gradually expand to the south, with the risk levels increasing from a return period of 2 years to 20 years. Among all wheat frost risk levels, the regions with loss rate ranges from 35.00% to 45.00% account for the largest area proportion, ranging from 58.60% to 63.27%. We argue that for wheat and other frost-affected crops, it is

  9. Renormalization group running of fermion observables in an extended non-supersymmetric SO(10) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meloni, Davide; Ohlsson, Tommy; Riad, Stella

    2017-03-01

    We investigate the renormalization group evolution of fermion masses, mixings and quartic scalar Higgs self-couplings in an extended non-supersymmetric SO(10) model, where the Higgs sector contains the 10 H, 120 H, and 126 H representations. The group SO(10) is spontaneously broken at the GUT scale to the Pati-Salam group and subsequently to the Standard Model (SM) at an intermediate scale M I. We explicitly take into account the effects of the change of gauge groups in the evolution. In particular, we derive the renormalization group equations for the different Yukawa couplings. We find that the computed physical fermion observables can be successfully matched to the experimental measured values at the electroweak scale. Using the same Yukawa couplings at the GUT scale, the measured values of the fermion observables cannot be reproduced with a SM-like evolution, leading to differences in the numerical values up to around 80%. Furthermore, a similar evolution can be performed for a minimal SO(10) model, where the Higgs sector consists of the 10 H and 126 H representations only, showing an equally good potential to describe the low-energy fermion observables. Finally, for both the extended and the minimal SO(10) models, we present predictions for the three Dirac and Majorana CP-violating phases as well as three effective neutrino mass parameters.

  10. Measuring Short- and Long-run Promotional Effectiveness on Scanner Data Using Persistence Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.G. Dekimpe (Marnik); D.M. Hanssens (Dominique); V.R. Nijs; J-B.E.M. Steenkamp (Jan-Benedict)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThe use of price promotions to stimulate brand and firm performance is increasing. We discuss how (i) the availability of longer scanner data time series, and (ii) persistence modeling, have lead to greater insights into the dynamic effects of price promotions, as one can now quantify th

  11. Validation of high-resolution WRF-ARW model runs against airborne measurements over complex terrain in central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carotenuto, Federico; Gioli, Beniamino; Toscano, Piero; Gualtieri, Giovanni; Miglietta, Franco; Wohlfahrt, Georg

    2015-04-01

    ): "Aircraft wind measurements to assess a coupled WRF-CALMET mesoscale system". Meteorological Applications, 21(1), 117-128 pp. Maselli F., Gioli B., Chiesi M., Vaccari F., Zaldei A., Fibbi L., Bindi M., Miglietta F. (2010): "Validating an integrated strategy to model net land carbon exchange against aircraft flux measurements". Remote Sensing of Environment, 114(5), 1108-1116 pp.

  12. IPSL-CM5A2. An Earth System Model designed to run long simulations for past and future climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepulchre, Pierre; Caubel, Arnaud; Marti, Olivier; Hourdin, Frédéric; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Boucher, Olivier

    2017-04-01

    The IPSL-CM5A model was developed and released in 2013 "to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)" [Dufresne et al., 2013]. Although this model also has been used for numerous paleoclimate studies, a major limitation was its computation time, which averaged 10 model-years / day on 32 cores of the Curie supercomputer (on TGCC computing center, France). Such performances were compatible with the experimental designs of intercomparison projects (e.g. CMIP, PMIP) but became limiting for modelling activities involving several multi-millenial experiments, which are typical for Quaternary or "deeptime" paleoclimate studies, in which a fully-equilibrated deep-ocean is mandatory. Here we present the Earth-System model IPSL-CM5A2. Based on IPSL-CM5A, technical developments have been performed both on separate components and on the coupling system in order to speed up the whole coupled model. These developments include the integration of hybrid parallelization MPI-OpenMP in LMDz atmospheric component, the use of a new input-ouput library to perform parallel asynchronous input/output by using computing cores as "IO servers", the use of a parallel coupling library between the ocean and the atmospheric components. Running on 304 cores, the model can now simulate 55 years per day, opening new gates towards multi-millenial simulations. Apart from obtaining better computing performances, one aim of setting up IPSL-CM5A2 was also to overcome the cold bias depicted in global surface air temperature (t2m) in IPSL-CM5A. We present the tuning strategy to overcome this bias as well as the main characteristics (including biases) of the pre-industrial climate simulated by IPSL-CM5A2. Lastly, we shortly present paleoclimate simulations run with this model, for the Holocene and for deeper timescales in the Cenozoic, for which the particular continental configuration

  13. Presentation of the EURODELTA III intercomparison exercise - evaluation of the chemistry transport models' performance on criteria pollutants and joint analysis with meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bessagnet, Bertrand; Pirovano, Guido; Mircea, Mihaela; Cuvelier, Cornelius; Aulinger, Armin; Calori, Giuseppe; Ciarelli, Giancarlo; Manders, Astrid; Stern, Rainer; Tsyro, Svetlana; García Vivanco, Marta; Thunis, Philippe; Pay, Maria-Teresa; Colette, Augustin; Couvidat, Florian; Meleux, Frédérik; Rouïl, Laurence; Ung, Anthony; Aksoyoglu, Sebnem; María Baldasano, José; Bieser, Johannes; Briganti, Gino; Cappelletti, Andrea; D'Isidoro, Massimo; Finardi, Sandro; Kranenburg, Richard; Silibello, Camillo; Carnevale, Claudio; Aas, Wenche; Dupont, Jean-Charles; Fagerli, Hilde; Gonzalez, Lucia; Menut, Laurent; Prévôt, André S. H.; Roberts, Pete; White, Les

    2016-10-01

    The EURODELTA III exercise has facilitated a comprehensive intercomparison and evaluation of chemistry transport model performances. Participating models performed calculations for four 1-month periods in different seasons in the years 2006 to 2009, allowing the influence of different meteorological conditions on model performances to be evaluated. The exercise was performed with strict requirements for the input data, with few exceptions. As a consequence, most of differences in the outputs will be attributed to the differences in model formulations of chemical and physical processes. The models were evaluated mainly for background rural stations in Europe. The performance was assessed in terms of bias, root mean square error and correlation with respect to the concentrations of air pollutants (NO2, O3, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5), as well as key meteorological variables. Though most of meteorological parameters were prescribed, some variables like the planetary boundary layer (PBL) height and the vertical diffusion coefficient were derived in the model preprocessors and can partly explain the spread in model results. In general, the daytime PBL height is underestimated by all models. The largest variability of predicted PBL is observed over the ocean and seas. For ozone, this study shows the importance of proper boundary conditions for accurate model calculations and then on the regime of the gas and particle chemistry. The models show similar and quite good performance for nitrogen dioxide, whereas they struggle to accurately reproduce measured sulfur dioxide concentrations (for which the agreement with observations is the poorest). In general, the models provide a close-to-observations map of particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) concentrations over Europe rather with correlations in the range 0.4-0.7 and a systematic underestimation reaching -10 µg m-3 for PM10. The highest concentrations are much more underestimated, particularly in wintertime. Further evaluation of

  14. Investigation of detailed spatial structure of the Moscow urban heat island with application of the newest meteorological observations and regional climate modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varentsov, Mikhail; Pavel, Konstantinov; Timofey, Samsonov

    2016-04-01

    During the last years, the network of metrological observation in Moscow megacity and its neighborhoods, forming the biggest urban agglomeration in Europe, was significantly extended. Several new weather stations and completely new dense network of air-quality monitoring appears during the last decade. In addition, several microwave meteorological profilers MTP 5, which are available to measure temperature at the heights from 0 to 1000 meters with 50-m resolution, were installed in the city and its surrounding. All these measurements allow revealing undiscovered features of Moscow urban climate and urban heat island (UHI). In our research, bases on this data, we covered several topics related to urban climatology: - Investigation of detailed spatial structure of Moscow UHI and its relationships with building features, such as land use and morphology of the street canyons, obtained by GIS-algorithms according (Samsonov et. al, 2015); - Investigation of three-dimensional structure of the UHI, including its vertical extend and influence on the stratification of the atmosphere, and three-dimensional structure of the urban heat island advection and urban heat plumes; - Application of the newest data for validation of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, coupled with TEB urban scheme (Masson, 2000; Trusilova et. al., 2013), launched for Moscow region with 1-km spatial resolution. References: 1. Masson V. A. Physically-Based Scheme for the Urban Energy Budget in Atmospheric models. Bound. Layer Meteor. 2000. V. 94 (3). P. 357-397. 2. Trusilova K., Früh B., Brienen S., Walter A., Masson V., Pigeon G., Becker P. Implementation of an Urban Parameterization Scheme into the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. V. 52. P. 2296-2311. 3. Samsonov T.E., Konstantinov P.I., Varentsov M.I. Object-oriented approach to urban canyon analysis and its applications in meteorological modeling. Urban Climate. 2015. Vol. 13. P. 122-139.

  15. Sensitivity of boundary-layer variables to PBL schemes in the WRF model based on surface meteorological observations, lidar, and radiosondes during the HygrA-CD campaign

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, Robert F.; Tiana-Alsina, Jordi; Baldasano, José María; Rocadenbosch, Francesc; Papayannis, Alexandros; Solomos, Stavros; Tzanis, Chris G.

    2016-07-01

    Air quality forecast systems need reliable and accurate representations of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) to perform well. An important question is how accurately numerical weather prediction models can reproduce conditions in diverse synoptic flow types. Here, observations from the summer 2014 HygrA-CD (Hygroscopic Aerosols to Cloud Droplets) experimental campaign are used to validate simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over the complex, urban terrain of the Greater Athens Area. Three typical atmospheric flow types were identified during the 39-day campaign based on 2-day backward trajectories: Continental, Etesians, and Saharan. It is shown that the numerical model simulations differ dramatically depending on the PBL scheme, atmospheric dynamics, and meteorological parameter (e.g., 2-m air temperature). Eight PBL schemes from WRF version 3.4 are tested with daily simulations on an inner domain at 1-km grid spacing. Near-surface observations of 2-m air temperature and relative humidity and 10-m wind speed are collected from multiple meteorological stations. Estimates of the PBL height come from measurements using a multiwavelength Raman lidar, with an adaptive extended Kalman filter technique. Vertical profiles of atmospheric variables are obtained from radiosonde launches, along with PBL heights calculated using bulk Richardson number. Daytime maximum PBL heights ranged from 2.57 km during Etesian flows, to as low as 0.37 km during Saharan flows. The largest differences between model and observations are found with simulated PBL height during Saharan synoptic flows. During the daytime, campaign-averaged near-surface variables show WRF tended to have a cool, moist bias with higher simulated wind speeds than the observations, especially near the coast. It is determined that non-local PBL schemes give the most agreeable solutions when compared with observations.

  16. Quark flavour observables in the Littlest Higgs model with T-parity after LHC Run 1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanke, Monika; Buras, Andrzej J; Recksiegel, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    The Littlest Higgs model with T-parity (LHT) belongs to the simplest new physics scenarios with new sources of flavour and CP violation. The latter originate in the interactions of ordinary quarks and leptons with heavy mirror quarks and leptons that are mediated by new heavy gauge bosons. Also a heavy fermionic top partner is present in this model which communicates with the SM fermions by means of standard [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] gauge bosons. We present a new analysis of quark flavour observables in the LHT model in view of the oncoming flavour precision era. We use all available information on the CKM parameters, lattice QCD input and experimental data on quark flavour observables and corresponding theoretical calculations, taking into account new lower bounds on the symmetry breaking scale and the mirror quark masses from the LHC. We investigate by how much the branching ratios for a number of rare K and B decays are still allowed to depart from their SM values. This includes [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text]. Taking into account the constraints from [Formula: see text] processes, significant departures from the SM predictions for [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] are possible, while the effects in B decays are much smaller. In particular, the LHT model favours [Formula: see text], which is not supported by the data, and the present anomalies in [Formula: see text] decays cannot be explained in this model. With the recent lattice and large N input the imposition of the [Formula: see text] constraint implies a significant suppression of the branching ratio for [Formula: see text] with respect to its SM value while allowing only for small modifications of [Formula: see text]. Finally, we investigate how the LHT physics could be distinguished from other models by means of indirect measurements and

  17. Quark flavour observables in the Littlest Higgs model with T-parity after LHC Run 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanke, Monika; Buras, Andrzej J