Application of nonlinear forecasting techniques for meteorological modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Pérez-Muñuzuri

2000-10-01

Full Text Available A nonlinear forecasting method was used to predict the behavior of a cloud coverage time series several hours in advance. The method is based on the reconstruction of a chaotic strange attractor using four years of cloud absorption data obtained from half-hourly Meteosat infrared images from Northwestern Spain. An exhaustive nonlinear analysis of the time series was carried out to reconstruct the phase space of the underlying chaotic attractor. The forecast values are used by a non-hydrostatic meteorological model ARPS for daily weather prediction and their results compared with surface temperature measurements from a meteorological station and a vertical sounding. The effect of noise in the time series is analyzed in terms of the prediction results.Key words: Meterology and atmospheric dynamics (mesoscale meteorology; general – General (new fields

Data assimilation in atmospheric chemistry models: current status and future prospects for coupled chemistry meteorology models

OpenAIRE

M. Bocquet; H. Elbern; H. Eskes; M. Hirtl; R. Žabkar; G. R. Carmichael; J. Flemming; A. Inness; M. Pagowski; J. L. Pérez Camaño; P. E. Saide; R. San Jose; M. Sofiev; J. Vira; A. Baklanov

2015-01-01

Data assimilation is used in atmospheric chemistry models to improve air quality forecasts, construct re-analyses of three-dimensional chemical (including aerosol) concentrations and perform inverse modeling of input variables or model parameters (e.g., emissions). Coupled chemistry meteorology models (CCMM) are atmospheric chemistry models that simulate meteorological processes and chemical transformations jointly. They offer the possibility to assimilate both meteorologica...

runDM: Running couplings of Dark Matter to the Standard Model

Science.gov (United States)

D'Eramo, Francesco; Kavanagh, Bradley J.; Panci, Paolo

2018-02-01

runDM calculates the running of the couplings of Dark Matter (DM) to the Standard Model (SM) in simplified models with vector mediators. By specifying the mass of the mediator and the couplings of the mediator to SM fields at high energy, the code can calculate the couplings at low energy, taking into account the mixing of all dimension-6 operators. runDM can also extract the operator coefficients relevant for direct detection, namely low energy couplings to up, down and strange quarks and to protons and neutrons.

One multi-media environmental system with linkage between meteorology/ hydrology/ air quality models and water quality model

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, C.; Lynch, J. A.; Dennis, R. L.

2016-12-01

The biogeochemical processing of nitrogen and associated pollutants is driven by meteorological and hydrological processes in conjunction with pollutant loading. There are feedbacks between meteorology and hydrology that will be affected by land-use change and climate change. Changes in meteorology will affect pollutant deposition. It is important to account for those feedbacks and produce internally consistent simulations of meteorology, hydrology, and pollutant loading to drive the (watershed/water quality) biogeochemical models. In this study, the ecological response to emission reductions in streams in the Potomac watershed was evaluated. Firstly, we simulated the deposition by using the fully coupled Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CAMQ) model; secondly, we created the hydrological data by the offline linked Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the WRF model. Lastly, we investigated the water quality by one comprehensive/environment model, namely the linkage of CMAQ, WRF, VIC and the Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchment (MAGIC) model from 2002 to 2010.The simulated results (such as NO3, SO4, and SBC) fit well to the observed values. The linkage provides a generally accurate, well-tested tool for evaluating sensitivities to varying meteorology and environmental changes on acidification and other biogeochemical processes, with capability to comprehensively explore strategic policy and management design.

Application of nonlinear forecasting techniques for meteorological modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Pérez-Muñuzuri

Full Text Available A nonlinear forecasting method was used to predict the behavior of a cloud coverage time series several hours in advance. The method is based on the reconstruction of a chaotic strange attractor using four years of cloud absorption data obtained from half-hourly Meteosat infrared images from Northwestern Spain. An exhaustive nonlinear analysis of the time series was carried out to reconstruct the phase space of the underlying chaotic attractor. The forecast values are used by a non-hydrostatic meteorological model ARPS for daily weather prediction and their results compared with surface temperature measurements from a meteorological station and a vertical sounding. The effect of noise in the time series is analyzed in terms of the prediction results.

Key words: Meterology and atmospheric dynamics (mesoscale meteorology; general – General (new fields

Online-coupled meteorology and chemistry models: history, current status, and outlook

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Zhang

2008-06-01

Full Text Available The climate-chemistry-aerosol-cloud-radiation feedbacks are important processes occurring in the atmosphere. Accurately simulating those feedbacks requires fully-coupled meteorology, climate, and chemistry models and presents significant challenges in terms of both scientific understanding and computational demand. This paper reviews the history and current status of the development and application of online-coupled meteorology and chemistry models, with a focus on five representative models developed in the US including GATOR-GCMOM, WRF/Chem, CAM3, MIRAGE, and Caltech unified GCM. These models represent the current status and/or the state-of-the science treatments of online-coupled models worldwide. Their major model features, typical applications, and physical/chemical treatments are compared with a focus on model treatments of aerosol and cloud microphysics and aerosol-cloud interactions. Aerosol feedbacks to planetary boundary layer meteorology and aerosol indirect effects are illustrated with case studies for some of these models. Future research needs for model development, improvement, application, as well as major challenges for online-coupled models are discussed.

Random forest meteorological normalisation models for Swiss PM10 trend analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Grange, Stuart K.; Carslaw, David C.; Lewis, Alastair C.; Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph

2018-05-01

Meteorological normalisation is a technique which accounts for changes in meteorology over time in an air quality time series. Controlling for such changes helps support robust trend analysis because there is more certainty that the observed trends are due to changes in emissions or chemistry, not changes in meteorology. Predictive random forest models (RF; a decision tree machine learning technique) were grown for 31 air quality monitoring sites in Switzerland using surface meteorological, synoptic scale, boundary layer height, and time variables to explain daily PM10 concentrations. The RF models were used to calculate meteorologically normalised trends which were formally tested and evaluated using the Theil-Sen estimator. Between 1997 and 2016, significantly decreasing normalised PM10 trends ranged between -0.09 and -1.16 µg m-3 yr-1 with urban traffic sites experiencing the greatest mean decrease in PM10 concentrations at -0.77 µg m-3 yr-1. Similar magnitudes have been reported for normalised PM10 trends for earlier time periods in Switzerland which indicates PM10 concentrations are continuing to decrease at similar rates as in the past. The ability for RF models to be interpreted was leveraged using partial dependence plots to explain the observed trends and relevant physical and chemical processes influencing PM10 concentrations. Notably, two regimes were suggested by the models which cause elevated PM10 concentrations in Switzerland: one related to poor dispersion conditions and a second resulting from high rates of secondary PM generation in deep, photochemically active boundary layers. The RF meteorological normalisation process was found to be robust, user friendly and simple to implement, and readily interpretable which suggests the technique could be useful in many air quality exploratory data analysis situations.

Comparative analysis of meteorological performance of coupled chemistry-meteorology models in the context of AQMEII phase 2

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Air pollution simulations critically depend on the quality of the underlying meteorology. In phase 2 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII-2), thirteen modeling groups from Europe and four groups from North America operating eight different regional...

Numerical Weather Prediction Models on Linux Boxes as tools in meteorological education in Hungary

Science.gov (United States)

Gyongyosi, A. Z.; Andre, K.; Salavec, P.; Horanyi, A.; Szepszo, G.; Mille, M.; Tasnadi, P.; Weidiger, T.

2012-04-01

. Numerical modeling became a common tool in the daily practice of weather experts forecasters due to the i) increasing user demands for weather data by the costumers, ii) the growth in computer resources, iii) numerical weather prediction systems available for integration on affordable, off the shelf computers and iv) available input data (from ECMWF or NCEP) for model integrations. Beside learning the theoretical basis, since the last year. Students in their MSc or BSc Thesis Research or in Student's Research ProjectsStudent's Research Projects h have the opportunity to run numerical models and to analyze the outputs for different purposes including wind energy estimation, simulation of the dynamics of a polar low, and subtropical cyclones, analysis of the isentropic potential vorticity field, examination of coupled atmospheric dispersion models, etc. A special course in the application of numerical modeling has been held (is being announced for the upcoming semester) (is being announced for the upcoming semester) for our students in order to improve their skills on this field. Several numerical model (NRIPR ETA and WRF) systems have been adapted in the University and integrated WRF have been tested and used for the geographical region of the Carpathian Basin (NRIPR, ETA and WRF). Recently ALADIN/CHAPEAU the academic version of the ARPEGE ALADIN cy33t1 meso-scale numerical weather prediction model system (which is the operational forecasting tool of our National Weather Service) has been installed at our Institute. ALADIN is the operational forecasting model of the Hungarian Meteorological Service and developed in the framework of the international ALADIN co-operation. Our main objectives are i) the analysis of different typical weather situations, ii) fine tuning of parameterization schemes and the iii) comparison of the ALADIN/CHAPEAU and WRF model outputs based on case studies. The necessary hardware and software innovations has have been done. In the presentation the

Modelling the meteorological forest fire niche in heterogeneous pyrologic conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

2015-01-01

Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition.

Meteorological fluid dynamics asymptotic modelling, stability and chaotic atmospheric motion

CERN Document Server

Zeytounian, Radyadour K

1991-01-01

The author considers meteorology as a part of fluid dynamics. He tries to derive the properties of atmospheric flows from a rational analysis of the Navier-Stokes equations, at the same time analyzing various types of initial and boundary problems. This approach to simulate nature by models from fluid dynamics will be of interest to both scientists and students of physics and theoretical meteorology.

Evaluating the performance of ENVI-met model in diurnal cycles for different meteorological conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Acero, Juan A.; Arrizabalaga, Jon

2018-01-01

Urban areas are known to modify meteorological variables producing important differences in small spatial scales (i.e. microscale). These affect human thermal comfort conditions and the dispersion of pollutants, especially those emitted inside the urban area, which finally influence quality of life and the use of public open spaces. In this study, the diurnal evolution of meteorological variables measured in four urban spaces is compared with the results provided by ENVI-met (v 4.0). Measurements were carried out during 3 days with different meteorological conditions in Bilbao in the north of the Iberian Peninsula. The evaluation of the model accuracy (i.e. the degree to which modelled values approach measured values) was carried out with several quantitative difference metrics. The results for air temperature and humidity show a good agreement of measured and modelled values independently of the regional meteorological conditions. However, in the case of mean radiant temperature and wind speed, relevant differences are encountered highlighting the limitation of the model to estimate these meteorological variables precisely during diurnal cycles, in the considered evaluation conditions (sites and weather).

Propagation of hydro-meteorological uncertainty in a model cascade framework to inundation prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez-Rincón, J. P.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Breña-Naranjo, J. A.

2015-07-01

This investigation aims to study the propagation of meteorological uncertainty within a cascade modelling approach to flood prediction. The methodology was comprised of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, a distributed rainfall-runoff model and a 2-D hydrodynamic model. The uncertainty evaluation was carried out at the meteorological and hydrological levels of the model chain, which enabled the investigation of how errors that originated in the rainfall prediction interact at a catchment level and propagate to an estimated inundation area and depth. For this, a hindcast scenario is utilised removing non-behavioural ensemble members at each stage, based on the fit with observed data. At the hydrodynamic level, an uncertainty assessment was not incorporated; instead, the model was setup following guidelines for the best possible representation of the case study. The selected extreme event corresponds to a flood that took place in the southeast of Mexico during November 2009, for which field data (e.g. rain gauges; discharge) and satellite imagery were available. Uncertainty in the meteorological model was estimated by means of a multi-physics ensemble technique, which is designed to represent errors from our limited knowledge of the processes generating precipitation. In the hydrological model, a multi-response validation was implemented through the definition of six sets of plausible parameters from past flood events. Precipitation fields from the meteorological model were employed as input in a distributed hydrological model, and resulting flood hydrographs were used as forcing conditions in the 2-D hydrodynamic model. The evolution of skill within the model cascade shows a complex aggregation of errors between models, suggesting that in valley-filling events hydro-meteorological uncertainty has a larger effect on inundation depths than that observed in estimated flood inundation extents.

Development of regional meteorological and atmospheric diffusion simulation system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kubota, Ryuji; Iwashige, Kengo; Kasano, Toshio

2002-01-01

Regional atmospheric diffusion online network (RADON) with atmospheric diffusion analysis code (ADAC) : a simulation program of diffusion of radioactive materials, volcanic ash, pollen, NOx and SOx was developed. This system can be executed in personal computer (PC) and note PC on Windows. Emission data consists of online, offline and default data. It uses the meteorology data sources such as meteorological forecasting mesh data, automated meteorological data acquisition system (AMeDAS) data, meteorological observation data in site and municipality observation data. The meteorological forecasting mesh data shows forecasting value of temperature, wind speed, wind direction and humidity in about two days. The nuclear environmental monitoring center retains the online data (meteorological data, emission source data, monitoring station data) in its PC server and can run forecasting or repeating calculation using these data and store and print out the calculation results. About 30 emission materials can be calculated simultaneously. This system can simulate a series of weather from the past and real time to the future. (S.Y.)

Impact of inherent meteorology uncertainty on air quality model predictions

Science.gov (United States)

It is well established that there are a number of different classifications and sources of uncertainties in environmental modeling systems. Air quality models rely on two key inputs, namely, meteorology and emissions. When using air quality models for decision making, it is impor...

Use of data assimilation procedures in the meteorological pre-processors of decision support systems to improve the meteorological input of atmospheric dispersion models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kovalets, I.; Andronopoulos, S.; Bartzis, J.G.

2003-01-01

Full text: The Atmospheric Dispersion Models (ADMs) play a key role in decision support systems for nuclear emergency management, as they are used to determine the current, and predict the future spatial distribution of radionuclides after an accidental release of radioactivity to the atmosphere. Meteorological pre-processors (MPPs), usually act as interface between the ADMs and the incoming meteorological data. Therefore the quality of the results of the ADMs crucially depends on the input that they receive from the MPPs. The meteorological data are measurements from one or more stations in the vicinity of the nuclear power plant and/or prognostic data from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models of National Weather Services. The measurements are representative of the past and current local conditions, while the NWP data cover a wider range in space and future time, where no measurements exist. In this respect, the simultaneous use of both by an MPP immediately poses the questions of consistency and of the appropriate methodology for reconciliation of the two kinds of meteorological data. The main objective of the work presented in this paper is the introduction of data assimilation (DA) techniques in the MPP of the RODOS (Real-time On-line Decision Support) system for nuclear emergency management in Europe, developed under the European Project 'RODOS-Migration', to reconcile the NWP data with the local observations coming from the meteorological stations. More specifically, in this paper: the methodological approach for simultaneous use of both meteorological measurements and NWP data in the MPP is presented; the method is validated by comparing results of calculations with experimental data; future ways of improvement of the meteorological input for the calculations of the atmospheric dispersion in the RODOS system are discussed. The methodological approach for solving the DA problem developed in this work is based on the method of optimal interpolation (OI

Atmospheric Boundary Layer Modeling for Combined Meteorology and Air Quality Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Atmospheric Eulerian grid models for mesoscale and larger applications require sub-grid models for turbulent vertical exchange processes, particularly within the Planetary Boundary Layer (PSL). In combined meteorology and air quality modeling systems consistent PSL modeling of wi...

Application of WRF/Chem-MADRID and WRF/Polyphemus in Europe - Part 1: Model description, evaluation of meteorological predictions, and aerosol-meteorology interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Y.; Sartelet, K.; Wu, S.-Y.; Seigneur, C.

2013-07-01

Comprehensive model evaluation and comparison of two 3-D air quality modeling systems (i.e., the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF)/Polyphemus and WRF with chemistry and the Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ionization, and Dissolution (MADRID) (WRF/Chem-MADRID)) are conducted over Western Europe. Part 1 describes the background information for the model comparison and simulation design, the application of WRF for January and July 2001 over triple-nested domains in Western Europe at three horizontal grid resolutions: 0.5°, 0.125°, and 0.025°, and the effect of aerosol/meteorology interactions on meteorological predictions. Nine simulated meteorological variables (i.e., downward shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes (SWDOWN and LWDOWN), outgoing longwave radiation flux (OLR), temperature at 2 m (T2), specific humidity at 2 m (Q2), relative humidity at 2 m (RH2), wind speed at 10 m (WS10), wind direction at 10 m (WD10), and precipitation (Precip)) are evaluated using available observations in terms of spatial distribution, domainwide daily and site-specific hourly variations, and domainwide performance statistics. The vertical profiles of temperature, dew points, and wind speed/direction are also evaluated using sounding data. WRF demonstrates its capability in capturing diurnal/seasonal variations and spatial gradients and vertical profiles of major meteorological variables. While the domainwide performance of LWDOWN, OLR, T2, Q2, and RH2 at all three grid resolutions is satisfactory overall, large positive or negative biases occur in SWDOWN, WS10, and Precip even at 0.125° or 0.025° in both months and in WD10 in January. In addition, discrepancies between simulations and observations exist in T2, Q2, WS10, and Precip at mountain/high altitude sites and large urban center sites in both months, in particular, during snow events or thunderstorms. These results indicate the model's difficulty in capturing meteorological variables in complex terrain and

Bridging the Radiative Transfer Models for Meteorology and Solar Energy Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Y.; Sengupta, M.

2017-12-01

Radiative transfer models are used to compute solar radiation reaching the earth surface and play an important role in both meteorology and solar energy studies. Therefore, they are designed to meet the needs of specialized applications. For instance, radiative transfer models for meteorology seek to provide more accurate cloudy-sky radiation compared to models used in solar energy that are geared towards accuracy in clear-sky conditions associated with the maximum solar resource. However, models for solar energy applications are often computationally faster, as the complex solution of the radiative transfer equation is parameterized by atmospheric properties that can be acquired from surface- or satellite-based observations. This study introduces the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) recent efforts to combine the advantages of radiative transfer models designed for meteorology and solar energy applictions. A fast all-sky radiation model, FARMS-NIT, was developed to efficiently compute narrowband all-sky irradiances over inclined photovoltaic (PV) panels. This new model utilizes the optical preperties from a solar energy model, SMARTS, to computes surface radiation by considering all possible paths of photon transmission and the relevent scattering and absorption attenuation. For cloudy-sky conditions, cloud bidirectional transmittance functions (BTDFs) are provided by a precomputed lookup table (LUT) by LibRadtran. Our initial results indicate that FARMS-NIT has an accuracy that is similar to LibRadtran, a highly accurate multi-stream model, but is significantly more efficient. The development and validation of this model will be presented.

An intercomparison of several diagnostic meteorological processors used in mesoscale air quality modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vimont, J.C. [National Park Service, Lakewood, CO (United States); Scire, J.S. [Sigma Research Corp., Concord, MA (United States)

1994-12-31

A major component, and area of uncertainty, in mesoscale air quality modeling, is the specification of the meteorological fields which affect the transport and dispersion of pollutants. Various options are available for estimating the wind and mixing depth fields over a mesoscale domain. Estimates of the wind field can be obtained from spatial and temporal interpolation of available observations or from diagnostic meteorological models, which estimate a meteorological field from available data and adjust those fields based on parameterizations of physical processes. A major weakness of these processors is their dependence on spatially and temporally sparse input data, particularly upper air data. These problems are exacerbated in regions of complex terrain and along the shorelines of large bodies of water. Similarly, the estimation of mixing depth is also reliant upon sparse observations and the parameterization of the convective and mechanical processes. The meteorological processors examined in this analysis were developed to drive different Lagrangian puff models. This paper describes the algorithms these processors use to estimate the wind fields and mixing depth fields.

Mesoscale atmospheric modelling technology as a tool for the long-term meteorological dataset development

Science.gov (United States)

Platonov, Vladimir; Kislov, Alexander; Rivin, Gdaly; Varentsov, Mikhail; Rozinkina, Inna; Nikitin, Mikhail; Chumakov, Mikhail

2017-04-01

The detailed hydrodynamic modelling of meteorological parameters during the last 30 years (1985 - 2014) was performed for the Okhotsk Sea and the Sakhalin island regions. The regional non-hydrostatic atmospheric model COSMO-CLM used for this long-term simulation with 13.2, 6.6 and 2.2 km horizontal resolutions. The main objective of creation this dataset was the outlook of the investigation of statistical characteristics and the physical mechanisms of extreme weather events (primarily, wind speed extremes) on the small spatio-temporal scales. COSMO-CLM is the climate version of the well-known mesoscale COSMO model, including some modifications and extensions adapting to the long-term numerical experiments. The downscaling technique was realized and developed for the long-term simulations with three consequent nesting domains. ERA-Interim reanalysis ( 0.75 degrees resolution) used as global forcing data for the starting domain ( 13.2 km horizontal resolution), then these simulation data used as initial and boundary conditions for the next model runs over the domain with 6.6 km resolution, and similarly, for the next step to 2.2 km domain. Besides, the COSMO-CLM model configuration for 13.2 km run included the spectral nudging technique, i.e. an additional assimilation of reanalysis data not only at boundaries, but also inside the whole domain. Practically, this computational scheme realized on the SGI Altix 4700 supercomputer system in the Main Computer Center of Roshydromet and used 2,400 hours of CPU time total. According to modelling results, the verification of the obtained dataset was performed on the observation data. Estimations showed the mean error -0.5 0C, up to 2 - 3 0C RMSE in temperature, and overestimation in wind speed (RMSE is up to 2 m/s). Overall, analysis showed that the used downscaling technique with applying the COSMO-CLM model reproduced the meteorological conditions, spatial distribution, seasonal and synoptic variability of temperature and

Meteorological monitoring for dose assessment and emergency response modeling - how much is enough?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glantz, C.S.

1990-01-01

Individuals responsible for emergency response or environmental/dose assessment routinely ask if there are enough meteorological data to adequately support their objectives. The answer requires detailed consideration of the intended applications, capabilities of the atmospheric dispersion model data, pollutant release characteristics, terrain in the modeling region, and size and distribution of the human population in the modeling domain. The meteorologist's detailed knowledge of, and experience in, studying atmospheric transport and diffusion can assist in determining the appropriate level of meteorological monitoring

A Regional Analysis of Non-Methane Hydrocarbons And Meteorology of The Rural Southeast United States

Science.gov (United States)

1996-01-01

Zt is an ARIMA time series. This is a typical regression model , except that it allows for autocorrelation in the error term Z. In this work, an ARMA...data=folder; var residual; run; II Statistical output of 1992 regression model on 1993 ozone data ARIMA Procedure Maximum Likelihood Estimation Approx...at each of the sites, and to show the effect of synoptic meteorology on high ozone by examining NOAA daily weather maps and climatic data

Mesoscale meteorological model based on radioactive explosion cloud simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zheng Yi; Zhang Yan; Ying Chuntong

2008-01-01

In order to simulate nuclear explosion and dirty bomb radioactive cloud movement and concentration distribution, mesoscale meteorological model RAMS was used. Particles-size, size-active distribution and gravitational fallout in the cloud were considered. The results show that the model can simulate the 'mushroom' clouds of explosion. Three-dimension fluid field and radioactive concentration field were received. (authors)

Application of WRF/Chem-MADRID and WRF/Polyphemus in Europe – Part 1: Model description, evaluation of meteorological predictions, and aerosol–meteorology interactions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Zhang

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Comprehensive model evaluation and comparison of two 3-D air quality modeling systems (i.e., the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF/Polyphemus and WRF with chemistry and the Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ionization, and Dissolution (MADRID (WRF/Chem-MADRID are conducted over Western Europe. Part 1 describes the background information for the model comparison and simulation design, the application of WRF for January and July 2001 over triple-nested domains in Western Europe at three horizontal grid resolutions: 0.5°, 0.125°, and 0.025°, and the effect of aerosol/meteorology interactions on meteorological predictions. Nine simulated meteorological variables (i.e., downward shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes (SWDOWN and LWDOWN, outgoing longwave radiation flux (OLR, temperature at 2 m (T2, specific humidity at 2 m (Q2, relative humidity at 2 m (RH2, wind speed at 10 m (WS10, wind direction at 10 m (WD10, and precipitation (Precip are evaluated using available observations in terms of spatial distribution, domainwide daily and site-specific hourly variations, and domainwide performance statistics. The vertical profiles of temperature, dew points, and wind speed/direction are also evaluated using sounding data. WRF demonstrates its capability in capturing diurnal/seasonal variations and spatial gradients and vertical profiles of major meteorological variables. While the domainwide performance of LWDOWN, OLR, T2, Q2, and RH2 at all three grid resolutions is satisfactory overall, large positive or negative biases occur in SWDOWN, WS10, and Precip even at 0.125° or 0.025° in both months and in WD10 in January. In addition, discrepancies between simulations and observations exist in T2, Q2, WS10, and Precip at mountain/high altitude sites and large urban center sites in both months, in particular, during snow events or thunderstorms. These results indicate the model's difficulty in capturing meteorological variables in complex

Air quality modeling: evaluation of chemical and meteorological parameterizations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Youngseob

2011-01-01

The influence of chemical mechanisms and meteorological parameterizations on pollutant concentrations calculated with an air quality model is studied. The influence of the differences between two gas-phase chemical mechanisms on the formation of ozone and aerosols in Europe is low on average. For ozone, the large local differences are mainly due to the uncertainty associated with the kinetics of nitrogen monoxide (NO) oxidation reactions on the one hand and the representation of different pathways for the oxidation of aromatic compounds on the other hand. The aerosol concentrations are mainly influenced by the selection of all major precursors of secondary aerosols and the explicit treatment of chemical regimes corresponding to the nitrogen oxides (NO x ) levels. The influence of the meteorological parameterizations on the concentrations of aerosols and their vertical distribution is evaluated over the Paris region in France by comparison to lidar data. The influence of the parameterization of the dynamics in the atmospheric boundary layer is important; however, it is the use of an urban canopy model that improves significantly the modeling of the pollutant vertical distribution (author) [fr

Development of adequate meteorological monitoring standards for safety analysis of nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alp, E.; Lewis, P.J.

1985-09-01

The aim of this report is to identify what constitutes adequate meteorological information for airborne dispersion calculations in case of releases from nuclear facilities during 'normal operation', 'design postulated accidents', and 'emergency situations'. The models used for estimating downwind dispersion are reviewed, including short-range simple terrain, short-range complex terrain and medium to long range models with emphasis on Lagrangian models. The meteorogolical input parameters required for running these models are identified. The methods by which these parameters may be obtained from raw meteorological data are then considered. Emphasis is placed on well-tried and recommended methods rather than those which are currently being developed and lack long-term field tests. The meteorological data required to calculate the parameters that are in turn input to dispersion calculation methods can be obtained mainly from tower measurements. Recommended tower height is 50 m, with two levels of instruments (10 and 50 m) for wind speed, wind direction and temperature. Data for precipitation and solar radiation, that may be required under certain conditions and for special calculations, may be estimated from nearby representative weather stations (if available). For simple terrain, a single tower is sufficient. For complex terrain, such as coastal regions, two towers are desirable for accurate characterization of the turbulence regime in the vicinity of a release site. The report provides the necessary accuracy specifications for instruments required for the meteorological measurements. Data monitoring and recording, maintenance, quality control and assurance are also discussed. Error propagation analyses are recommended to determine the full implications of instrument accuracies on the accuracy of dispersion model predictions. 82 refs

Improvement of disease prediction and modeling through the use of meteorological ensembles: human plague in Uganda.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sean M Moore

Full Text Available Climate and weather influence the occurrence, distribution, and incidence of infectious diseases, particularly those caused by vector-borne or zoonotic pathogens. Thus, models based on meteorological data have helped predict when and where human cases are most likely to occur. Such knowledge aids in targeting limited prevention and control resources and may ultimately reduce the burden of diseases. Paradoxically, localities where such models could yield the greatest benefits, such as tropical regions where morbidity and mortality caused by vector-borne diseases is greatest, often lack high-quality in situ local meteorological data. Satellite- and model-based gridded climate datasets can be used to approximate local meteorological conditions in data-sparse regions, however their accuracy varies. Here we investigate how the selection of a particular dataset can influence the outcomes of disease forecasting models. Our model system focuses on plague (Yersinia pestis infection in the West Nile region of Uganda. The majority of recent human cases have been reported from East Africa and Madagascar, where meteorological observations are sparse and topography yields complex weather patterns. Using an ensemble of meteorological datasets and model-averaging techniques we find that the number of suspected cases in the West Nile region was negatively associated with dry season rainfall (December-February and positively with rainfall prior to the plague season. We demonstrate that ensembles of available meteorological datasets can be used to quantify climatic uncertainty and minimize its impacts on infectious disease models. These methods are particularly valuable in regions with sparse observational networks and high morbidity and mortality from vector-borne diseases.

Improvement of Disease Prediction and Modeling through the Use of Meteorological Ensembles: Human Plague in Uganda

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Sean M.; Monaghan, Andrew; Griffith, Kevin S.; Apangu, Titus; Mead, Paul S.; Eisen, Rebecca J.

2012-01-01

Climate and weather influence the occurrence, distribution, and incidence of infectious diseases, particularly those caused by vector-borne or zoonotic pathogens. Thus, models based on meteorological data have helped predict when and where human cases are most likely to occur. Such knowledge aids in targeting limited prevention and control resources and may ultimately reduce the burden of diseases. Paradoxically, localities where such models could yield the greatest benefits, such as tropical regions where morbidity and mortality caused by vector-borne diseases is greatest, often lack high-quality in situ local meteorological data. Satellite- and model-based gridded climate datasets can be used to approximate local meteorological conditions in data-sparse regions, however their accuracy varies. Here we investigate how the selection of a particular dataset can influence the outcomes of disease forecasting models. Our model system focuses on plague (Yersinia pestis infection) in the West Nile region of Uganda. The majority of recent human cases have been reported from East Africa and Madagascar, where meteorological observations are sparse and topography yields complex weather patterns. Using an ensemble of meteorological datasets and model-averaging techniques we find that the number of suspected cases in the West Nile region was negatively associated with dry season rainfall (December-February) and positively with rainfall prior to the plague season. We demonstrate that ensembles of available meteorological datasets can be used to quantify climatic uncertainty and minimize its impacts on infectious disease models. These methods are particularly valuable in regions with sparse observational networks and high morbidity and mortality from vector-borne diseases. PMID:23024750

Site-specific meteorology identification for DOE facility accident analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rabin, S.B.

1995-01-01

Currently, chemical dispersion calculations performed for safety analysis of DOE facilities assume a Pasquill D-Stability Class with a 4.5 m/s windspeed. These meteorological conditions are assumed to conservatively address the source term generation mechanism as well as the dispersion mechanism thereby resulting in a net conservative downwind consequence. While choosing this Stability Class / Windspeed combination may result in an overall conservative consequence, the level of conservative can not be quantified. The intent of this paper is to document a methodology which incorporates site-specific meteorology to determine a quantifiable consequence of a chemical release. A five-year meteorological database, appropriate for the facility location, is utilized for these chemical consequence calculations, and is consistent with the approach used for radiological releases. The hourly averages of meteorological conditions have been binned into 21 groups for the chemical consequence calculations. These 21 cases each have a probability of occurrence based on the number of times each case has occurred over the five year sampling period. A code has been developed which automates the running of all the cases with a commercially available air modeling code. The 21 cases are sorted by concentration. A concentration may be selected by the user for a quantified level of conservatism. The methodology presented is intended to improve the technical accuracy and defensability of Chemical Source Term / Dispersion Safety Analysis work. The result improves the quality of safety analyses products without significantly increasing the cost

Evaluation of data assimilation techniques for a mesoscale meteorological model and their effects on air quality model results

Science.gov (United States)

Amicarelli, A.; Gariazzo, C.; Finardi, S.; Pelliccioni, A.; Silibello, C.

2008-05-01

Data assimilation techniques are methods to limit the growth of errors in a dynamical model by allowing observations distributed in space and time to force (nudge) model solutions. They have become common for meteorological model applications in recent years, especially to enhance weather forecast and to support air-quality studies. In order to investigate the influence of different data assimilation techniques on the meteorological fields produced by RAMS model, and to evaluate their effects on the ozone and PM10 concentrations predicted by FARM model, several numeric experiments were conducted over the urban area of Rome, Italy, during a summer episode.

Evaluation of data assimilation techniques for a mesoscale meteorological model and their effects on air quality model results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amicarelli, A; Pelliccioni, A [ISPESL - Dipartimento Insediamenti Produttivi e Interazione con l' Ambiente, Via Fontana Candida, 1 00040 Monteporzio Catone (RM) Italy (Italy); Finardi, S; Silibello, C [ARIANET, via Gilino 9, 20128 Milano (Italy); Gariazzo, C

2008-05-01

Data assimilation techniques are methods to limit the growth of errors in a dynamical model by allowing observations distributed in space and time to force (nudge) model solutions. They have become common for meteorological model applications in recent years, especially to enhance weather forecast and to support air-quality studies. In order to investigate the influence of different data assimilation techniques on the meteorological fields produced by RAMS model, and to evaluate their effects on the ozone and PM{sub 10} concentrations predicted by FARM model, several numeric experiments were conducted over the urban area of Rome, Italy, during a summer episode.

Evaluation of data assimilation techniques for a mesoscale meteorological model and their effects on air quality model results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amicarelli, A; Pelliccioni, A; Finardi, S; Silibello, C; Gariazzo, C

2008-01-01

Data assimilation techniques are methods to limit the growth of errors in a dynamical model by allowing observations distributed in space and time to force (nudge) model solutions. They have become common for meteorological model applications in recent years, especially to enhance weather forecast and to support air-quality studies. In order to investigate the influence of different data assimilation techniques on the meteorological fields produced by RAMS model, and to evaluate their effects on the ozone and PM 10 concentrations predicted by FARM model, several numeric experiments were conducted over the urban area of Rome, Italy, during a summer episode

Online coupled regional meteorology chemistry models in Europe : Current status and prospects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baklanov, A.; Schlünzen, K.; Suppan, P.; Baldasano, J.; Brunner, D.; Aksoyoglu, S.; Carmichael, G.; Douros, J.; Flemming, J.; Forkel, R.; Galmarini, S.; Gauss, M.; Grell, G.; Hirtl, M.; Joffre, S.; Jorba, O.; Kaas, E.; Kaasik, M.; Kallos, G.; Kong, X.; Korsholm, U.; Kurganskiy, A.; Kushta, J.; Lohmann, U.; Mahura, A.; Manders-Groot, A.; Maurizi, A.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Rao, S.T.; Savage, N.; Seigneur, C.; Sokhi, R.S.; Solazzo, E.; Solomos, S.; Sørensen, B.; Tsegas, G.; Vignati, E.; Vogel, B.; Zhang, Y.

2014-01-01

Online coupled mesoscale meteorology atmospheric chemistry models have undergone a rapid evolution in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modelling community, these models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and regional climate modelling as they can consider

A NEW COMBINED LOCAL AND NON-LOCAL PBL MODEL FOR METEOROLOGY AND AIR QUALITY MODELING

Science.gov (United States)

A new version of the Asymmetric Convective Model (ACM) has been developed to describe sub-grid vertical turbulent transport in both meteorology models and air quality models. The new version (ACM2) combines the non-local convective mixing of the original ACM with local eddy diff...

Running-mass inflation model and WMAP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Covi, Laura; Lyth, David H.; Melchiorri, Alessandro; Odman, Carolina J.

2004-01-01

We consider the observational constraints on the running-mass inflationary model, and, in particular, on the scale dependence of the spectral index, from the new cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy measurements performed by WMAP and from new clustering data from the SLOAN survey. We find that the data strongly constraints a significant positive scale dependence of n, and we translate the analysis into bounds on the physical parameters of the inflaton potential. Looking deeper into specific types of interaction (gauge and Yukawa) we find that the parameter space is significantly constrained by the new data, but that the running-mass model remains viable

Meteorological monitoring for environmental/dose assessment and emergency response modeling: How much is enough?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glantz, C.S.

1989-01-01

In evaluation the effectiveness and appropriateness of meteorological monitoring programs, managers responsible for planning and operating emergency response or environmental/dose assessment systems must routinely question whether enough meteorological data are being obtained to adequately support system applications. There is no simple answer or cookbook procedure that can be followed in generating an appropriate answer to this question. The answer must be developed through detailed consideration of the intended applications for the data, the capabilities of the models that would use the data, pollutant release characteristics, terrain in the modeling region, the size of the modeling domain, and the distribution of human population in the modeling domain. It is recommended that manager consult meteorologists when assessing these factors; the meteorologist's detailed knowledge of, and experience in, studying atmospheric transport and diffusion should assist the manager in determining the appropriate level of meteorological monitoring. 1 ref

Spatial clustering and meteorological drivers of summer ozone in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Carro-Calvo, Leopoldo; Ordóñez, Carlos; García-Herrera, Ricardo; Schnell, Jordan L.

2017-10-01

We have applied the k-means clustering technique on a maximum daily 8-h running average near-surface ozone (MDA8 O3) gridded dataset over Europe at 1° × 1° resolution for summer 1998-2012. This has resulted in a spatial division of nine regions where ozone presents coherent spatiotemporal patterns. The role of meteorology in the variability of ozone at different time scales has been investigated by using daily meteorological fields from the NCEP-NCAR meteorological reanalysis. In the five regions of central-southern Europe ozone extremes (exceedances of the summer 95th percentile) occur mostly under anticyclonic circulation or weak sea level pressure gradients which trigger elevated temperatures and the recirculation of air masses. In the four northern regions extremes are associated with high-latitude anticyclones that divert the typical westerly flow at those latitudes and cause the advection of aged air masses from the south. The impact of meteorology on the day-to-day variability of ozone has been assessed by means of two different types of multiple linear models. These include as predictors meteorological fields averaged within the regions (;region-based; approach) or synoptic indices indicating the degree of resemblance between the daily meteorological fields over a large domain (25°-70° N, 35° W - 35° E) and their corresponding composites for extreme ozone days (;index-based; approach). With the first approach, a reduced set of variables, always including daily maximum temperature within the region, explains 47-66% of the variability (adjusted R2) in central-southern Europe, while more complex models are needed to explain 27-49% of the variability in the northern regions. The index-based approach yields better results for the regions of northern Europe, with adjusted R2 = 40-57%. Finally, both methodologies have also been applied to reproduce the interannual variability of ozone, with the best models explaining 66-88% of the variance in central

Sensitivity of the modelled deposition of Caesium-137 from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant to the wet deposition parameterisation in NAME

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leadbetter, Susan J.; Hort, Matthew C.; Jones, Andrew R.; Webster, Helen N.; Draxler, Roland R.

2015-01-01

This paper describes an investigation into the impact of different meteorological data sets and different wet scavenging coefficients on the model predictions of radionuclide deposits following the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. Three separate operational meteorological data sets, the UK Met Office global meteorology, the ECMWF global meteorology and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) mesoscale meteorology as well as radar rainfall analyses from JMA were all used as inputs to the UK Met Office's dispersion model NAME (the Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment). The model predictions of Caesium-137 deposits based on these meteorological models all showed good agreement with observations of deposits made in eastern Japan with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.44 to 0.80. Unexpectedly the NAME run using radar rainfall data had a lower correlation coefficient (R = 0.66), when compared to observations, than the run using the JMA mesoscale model rainfall (R = 0.76) or the run using ECMWF met data (R = 0.80). Additionally the impact of modifying the wet scavenging coefficients used in the parameterisation of wet deposition was investigated. The results showed that modifying the scavenging parameters had a similar impact to modifying the driving meteorology on the rank calculated from comparing the modelled and observed deposition

METRODOS: Meteorological preprocessor chain

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Astrup, P.; Mikkelsen, T.; Deme, S.

2001-01-01

The METRODOS meteorological preprocessor chain combines measured tower data and coarse grid numerical weather prediction (NWP) data with local scale flow models and similarity scaling to give high resolution approximations of the meteorological situation. Based on available wind velocity and dire...

Forecasting rain events - Meteorological models or collective intelligence?

Science.gov (United States)

Arazy, Ofer; Halfon, Noam; Malkinson, Dan

2015-04-01

Collective intelligence is shared (or group) intelligence that emerges from the collective efforts of many individuals. Collective intelligence is the aggregate of individual contributions: from simple collective decision making to more sophisticated aggregations such as in crowdsourcing and peer-production systems. In particular, collective intelligence could be used in making predictions about future events, for example by using prediction markets to forecast election results, stock prices, or the outcomes of sport events. To date, there is little research regarding the use of collective intelligence for prediction of weather forecasting. The objective of this study is to investigate the extent to which collective intelligence could be utilized to accurately predict weather events, and in particular rainfall. Our analyses employ metrics of group intelligence, as well as compare the accuracy of groups' predictions against the predictions of the standard model used by the National Meteorological Services. We report on preliminary results from a study conducted over the 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 winters. We have built a web site that allows people to make predictions on precipitation levels on certain locations. During each competition participants were allowed to enter their precipitation forecasts (i.e. 'bets') at three locations and these locations changed between competitions. A precipitation competition was defined as a 48-96 hour period (depending on the expected weather conditions), bets were open 24-48 hours prior to the competition, and during betting period participants were allowed to change their bets with no limitation. In order to explore the effect of transparency, betting mechanisms varied across study's sites: full transparency (participants able to see each other's bets); partial transparency (participants see the group's average bet); and no transparency (no information of others' bets is made available). Several interesting findings emerged from

Modeling the Frequency of Cyclists’ Red-Light Running Behavior Using Bayesian PG Model and PLN Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yao Wu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Red-light running behaviors of bicycles at signalized intersection lead to a large number of traffic conflicts and high collision potentials. The primary objective of this study is to model the cyclists’ red-light running frequency within the framework of Bayesian statistics. Data was collected at twenty-five approaches at seventeen signalized intersections. The Poisson-gamma (PG and Poisson-lognormal (PLN model were developed and compared. The models were validated using Bayesian p values based on posterior predictive checking indicators. It was found that the two models have a good fit of the observed cyclists’ red-light running frequency. Furthermore, the PLN model outperformed the PG model. The model estimated results showed that the amount of cyclists’ red-light running is significantly influenced by bicycle flow, conflict traffic flow, pedestrian signal type, vehicle speed, and e-bike rate. The validation result demonstrated the reliability of the PLN model. The research results can help transportation professionals to predict the expected amount of the cyclists’ red-light running and develop effective guidelines or policies to reduce red-light running frequency of bicycles at signalized intersections.

Cairo city air quality research initiative part-i: A meteorological modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdel-AAl, M.M.

2001-01-01

The modified meteorological model Hotmac (Higher order turbulence model for atmospheric circulation) is a three-dimensional and finite grid model developed primarily for simospheric motions and based on solving the conservation equations of mass momentum, energy and turbulent kinetic energy. The model is used for studying air quality of cairo cty and its surrounding to treat a domain that includes an urbanized area for understanding problems of air pollution. The acquired terrain (elevation) data for Egypt was obtained. The local and upper level geostrophic data were provided by rawinsonde of wind speed and direction, temperature,relative humidity, water vapour, and pressure The potential temperature was obtained by a computer program. The meteorological data was obtained for helwan site, about 20 kilometer south of cairo city. Three mested grids were used, with grids resolutions of 2 6 and 18 kilometers to cover a domain of approximately 360 km that extended from the red Sea to the mediterranean Sea

Running-mass inflation model and primordial black holes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Drees, Manuel; Erfani, Encieh

2011-01-01

We revisit the question whether the running-mass inflation model allows the formation of Primordial Black Holes (PBHs) that are sufficiently long-lived to serve as candidates for Dark Matter. We incorporate recent cosmological data, including the WMAP 7-year results. Moreover, we include ''the running of the running'' of the spectral index of the power spectrum, as well as the renormalization group ''running of the running'' of the inflaton mass term. Our analysis indicates that formation of sufficiently heavy, and hence long-lived, PBHs still remains possible in this scenario. As a by-product, we show that the additional term in the inflaton potential still does not allow significant negative running of the spectral index

The Impacts of Different Meteorology Data Sets on Nitrogen Fate and Transport in the SWAT Watershed Model

Science.gov (United States)

In this study, we investigated how different meteorology data sets impacts nitrogen fate and transport responses in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We used two meteorology data sets: National Climatic Data Center (observed) and Mesoscale Model 5/Weather Research ...

Application of a mesoscale forecasting model (NMM) coupled to the CALMET to develop forecast meteorology to use with the CALPUFF air dispersion model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Radonjic, Z.; Telenta, B.; Kirklady, J.; Chambers, D.; Kleb, H.

2006-01-01

An air quality assessment was undertaken as part of the Environmental Assessment for the Port Hope Area Initiative. The assessment predicted potential effects associated with the remediation efforts for historic low-level radioactive wastes and construction of Long-Term Waste Management Facilities (LTWMFs) for both the Port Hope and Port Granby Projects. A necessary element of air dispersion modelling is the development of suitable meteorological data. For the Port Hope and Port Granby Projects, a meteorological station was installed in close proximity to the location of the recommended LTWMF in Port Hope. The recommended location for the Port Granby LTWMF is approximately 10 km west of the Port Hope LTWMF. Concerns were raised regarding the applicability of data collected for the Port Hope meteorological station to the Port Granby Site. To address this concern, a new method for processing meteorological data, which coupled mesoscale meteorological forecasting data the U.S. EPA CALMET meteorological data processor, was applied. This methodology is possible because a new and advanced mesoscale forecasting modelling system enables extensive numerical calculations on personal computers. As a result of this advancement, mesoscale forecasting systems can now be coupled with the CALMET meteorological data processor and the CALPUFF air dispersion modelling system to facilitate wind field estimations and air dispersion analysis. (author)

[Prediction model of meteorological grade of wheat stripe rust in winter-reproductive area, Sichuan Basin, China].

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Xiang; Wang, Ming Tian; Zhang, Guo Zhi

2017-12-01

The winter reproductive areas of Puccinia striiformis var. striiformis in Sichuan Basin are often the places mostly affected by wheat stripe rust. With data on the meteorological condition and stripe rust situation at typical stations in the winter reproductive area in Sichuan Basin from 1999 to 2016, this paper classified the meteorological conditions inducing wheat stripe rust into 5 grades, based on the incidence area ratio of the disease. The meteorological factors which were biologically related to wheat stripe rust were determined through multiple analytical methods, and a meteorological grade model for forecasting wheat stripe rust was created. The result showed that wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Basin was significantly correlated with many meteorological factors, such as the ave-rage (maximum and minimum) temperature, precipitation and its anomaly percentage, relative humidity and its anomaly percentage, average wind speed and sunshine duration. Among these, the average temperature and the anomaly percentage of relative humidity were the determining factors. According to a historical retrospective test, the accuracy of the forecast based on the model was 64% for samples in the county-level test, and 89% for samples in the municipal-level test. In a meteorological grade forecast of wheat stripe rust in the winter reproductive areas in Sichuan Basin in 2017, the prediction was accurate for 62.8% of the samples, with 27.9% error by one grade and only 9.3% error by two or more grades. As a result, the model could deliver satisfactory forecast results, and predicate future wheat stripe rust from a meteorological point of view.

Study of solar radiation prediction and modeling of relationships between solar radiation and meteorological variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Huaiwei; Zhao, Na; Zeng, Xiaofan; Yan, Dong

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We investigate relationships between solar radiation and meteorological variables. • A strong relationship exists between solar radiation and sunshine duration. • Daily global radiation can be estimated accurately with ARMAX–GARCH models. • MGARCH model was applied to investigate time-varying relationships. - Abstract: The traditional approaches that employ the correlations between solar radiation and other measured meteorological variables are commonly utilized in studies. It is important to investigate the time-varying relationships between meteorological variables and solar radiation to determine which variables have the strongest correlations with solar radiation. In this study, the nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMAX–GARCH) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) time-series approaches were applied to investigate the associations between solar radiation and several meteorological variables. For these investigations, the long-term daily global solar radiation series measured at three stations from January 1, 2004 until December 31, 2007 were used in this study. Stronger relationships were observed to exist between global solar radiation and sunshine duration than between solar radiation and temperature difference. The results show that 82–88% of the temporal variations of the global solar radiation were captured by the sunshine-duration-based ARMAX–GARCH models and 55–68% of daily variations were captured by the temperature-difference-based ARMAX–GARCH models. The advantages of the ARMAX–GARCH models were also confirmed by comparison of Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) and neutral network (ANN) models in the estimation of daily global solar radiation. The strong heteroscedastic persistency of the global solar radiation series was revealed by the AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized Auto

Assessment of NASA's Physiographic and Meteorological Datasets as Input to HSPF and SWAT Hydrological Models

Science.gov (United States)

Alacron, Vladimir J.; Nigro, Joseph D.; McAnally, William H.; OHara, Charles G.; Engman, Edwin Ted; Toll, David

2011-01-01

This paper documents the use of simulated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer land use/land cover (MODIS-LULC), NASA-LIS generated precipitation and evapo-transpiration (ET), and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) datasets (in conjunction with standard land use, topographical and meteorological datasets) as input to hydrological models routinely used by the watershed hydrology modeling community. The study is focused in coastal watersheds in the Mississippi Gulf Coast although one of the test cases focuses in an inland watershed located in northeastern State of Mississippi, USA. The decision support tools (DSTs) into which the NASA datasets were assimilated were the Soil Water & Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF). These DSTs are endorsed by several US government agencies (EPA, FEMA, USGS) for water resources management strategies. These models use physiographic and meteorological data extensively. Precipitation gages and USGS gage stations in the region were used to calibrate several HSPF and SWAT model applications. Land use and topographical datasets were swapped to assess model output sensitivities. NASA-LIS meteorological data were introduced in the calibrated model applications for simulation of watershed hydrology for a time period in which no weather data were available (1997-2006). The performance of the NASA datasets in the context of hydrological modeling was assessed through comparison of measured and model-simulated hydrographs. Overall, NASA datasets were as useful as standard land use, topographical , and meteorological datasets. Moreover, NASA datasets were used for performing analyses that the standard datasets could not made possible, e.g., introduction of land use dynamics into hydrological simulations

Selection of some meteorological fluctuations to create forecasting models of NO2 in Jinamar (Gran Canarias)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vera Castellano, A.; Lopez Cancio, J.; Corujo Jimenez, J.

1997-01-01

The study of meteorological fluctuations that have been reported in urban and semi urban zones has reached in the last years an increasing importance to environmental pollution researches because its knowledge permits the elaboration of empirical models able to predict periods of potential pollution in these zones. In this work, it has been made use of the data on concentrations of NO 2 supplied by an chemiluminescent analyser and the meteorological data provided by a meteorological station located in the surroundings of the analyser, in order to determine the variables that have taken part in the elaboration of a forecasting model of this pollutant in Jinamar Valley. (Author) 15 refs

Numerical Modelling of Wave Run-Up

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ramirez, Jorge Robert Rodriguez; Frigaard, Peter; Andersen, Thomas Lykke

2011-01-01

Wave loads are important in problems related to offshore structure, such as wave run-up, slamming. The computation of such wave problems are carried out by CFD models. This paper presents one model, NS3, which solve 3D Navier-Stokes equations and use Volume of Fluid (VOF) method to treat the free...

Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998-2007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia.

Science.gov (United States)

Loha, Eskindir; Lindtjørn, Bernt

2010-06-16

Malaria transmission is complex and is believed to be associated with local climate changes. However, simple attempts to extrapolate malaria incidence rates from averaged regional meteorological conditions have proven unsuccessful. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if variations in specific meteorological factors are able to consistently predict P. falciparum malaria incidence at different locations in south Ethiopia. Retrospective data from 42 locations were collected including P. falciparum malaria incidence for the period of 1998-2007 and meteorological variables such as monthly rainfall (all locations), temperature (17 locations), and relative humidity (three locations). Thirty-five data sets qualified for the analysis. Ljung-Box Q statistics was used for model diagnosis, and R squared or stationary R squared was taken as goodness of fit measure. Time series modelling was carried out using Transfer Function (TF) models and univariate auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) when there was no significant predictor meteorological variable. Of 35 models, five were discarded because of the significant value of Ljung-Box Q statistics. Past P. falciparum malaria incidence alone (17 locations) or when coupled with meteorological variables (four locations) was able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence within statistical significance. All seasonal AIRMA orders were from locations at altitudes above 1742 m. Monthly rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature was able to predict incidence at four, five and two locations, respectively. In contrast, relative humidity was not able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence. The R squared values for the models ranged from 16% to 97%, with the exception of one model which had a negative value. Models with seasonal ARIMA orders were found to perform better. However, the models for predicting P. falciparum malaria incidence varied from location to location, and among lagged effects, data

Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998-2007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Loha Eskindir

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria transmission is complex and is believed to be associated with local climate changes. However, simple attempts to extrapolate malaria incidence rates from averaged regional meteorological conditions have proven unsuccessful. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if variations in specific meteorological factors are able to consistently predict P. falciparum malaria incidence at different locations in south Ethiopia. Methods Retrospective data from 42 locations were collected including P. falciparum malaria incidence for the period of 1998-2007 and meteorological variables such as monthly rainfall (all locations, temperature (17 locations, and relative humidity (three locations. Thirty-five data sets qualified for the analysis. Ljung-Box Q statistics was used for model diagnosis, and R squared or stationary R squared was taken as goodness of fit measure. Time series modelling was carried out using Transfer Function (TF models and univariate auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA when there was no significant predictor meteorological variable. Results Of 35 models, five were discarded because of the significant value of Ljung-Box Q statistics. Past P. falciparum malaria incidence alone (17 locations or when coupled with meteorological variables (four locations was able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence within statistical significance. All seasonal AIRMA orders were from locations at altitudes above 1742 m. Monthly rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature was able to predict incidence at four, five and two locations, respectively. In contrast, relative humidity was not able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence. The R squared values for the models ranged from 16% to 97%, with the exception of one model which had a negative value. Models with seasonal ARIMA orders were found to perform better. However, the models for predicting P. falciparum malaria incidence varied from location

A meteorological overview of the ARCTAS 2008 mission

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. E. Fuelberg

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS mission was a multi-aircraft project whose major objective was to investigate the factors driving changes in the Arctic's atmospheric composition and climate. It was conducted during April and June–July 2008. The summer ARCTAS deployment was preceded by a week of flights over and around California to address state issues of air quality and climate forcing. This paper focuses on meteorological conditions during the ARCTAS Spring and Summer campaigns. We examine mission averaged large-scale flow patterns at the surface, 500 hPa, and 300 hPa and determine their departures from climatology. Results from runs of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model are used to describe meteorological conditions on individual days. Our WRF configuration included a nested grid approach that provided horizontal spacing as small as 5 km. Trajectories calculated from the WRF output are used to determine transport pathways to the Arctic, including their origins and the altitudes at which they reach 70° N. We also present backward trajectories from selected legs of individual ARCTAS flights. Finally, the FLEXPART Lagrangian particle dispersion model, with the high resolution WRF data as input, is used to determine the paths of anthropogenic and biomass burning-derived CO. Results show that there was frequent and widespread transport to the Arctic during both phases of ARCTAS and that the three ARCTAS aircraft sampled air having a multitude of origins, following a myriad of paths, and experiencing many types of meteorological conditions.

Simulating Storm Surge Impacts with a Coupled Atmosphere-Inundation Model with Varying Meteorological Forcing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandra N. Ramos Valle

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Storm surge events have the potential to cause devastating damage to coastal communities. The magnitude of their impacts highlights the need for increased accuracy and real-time forecasting and predictability of storm surge. In this study, we assess two meteorological forcing configurations to hindcast the storm surge of Hurricane Sandy, and ultimately support the improvement of storm surge forecasts. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is coupled to the ADvanced CIRCulation Model (ADCIRC to determine water elevations. We perform four coupled simulations and compare storm surge estimates resulting from the use of a parametric vortex model and a full-physics atmospheric model. One simulation is forced with track-based meteorological data calculated from WRF, while three simulations are forced with the full wind and pressure field outputs from WRF simulations of varying resolutions. Experiments were compared to an ADCIRC simulation forced by National Hurricane Center best track data, as well as to station observations. Our results indicated that given accurate meteorological best track data, a parametric vortex model can accurately forecast maximum water elevations, improving upon the use of a full-physics coupled atmospheric-surge model. In the absence of a best track, atmospheric forcing in the form of full wind and pressure field from a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation prove reliable for storm surge forecasting.

Land surface modelling in hydrology and meteorology – lessons learned from the Baltic Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. P. Graham

2000-01-01

Full Text Available By both tradition and purpose, the land parameterization schemes of hydrological and meteorological models differ greatly. Meteorologists are concerned primarily with solving the energy balance, whereas hydrologists are most interested in the water balance. Meteorological climate models typically have multi-layered soil parameterisation that solves temperature fluxes numerically with diffusive equations. The same approach is carried over to a similar treatment of water transport. Hydrological models are not usually so interested in soil temperatures, but must provide a reasonable representation of soil moisture to get runoff right. To treat the heterogeneity of the soil, many hydrological models use only one layer with a statistical representation of soil variability. Such a hydrological model can be used on large scales while taking subgrid variability into account. Hydrological models also include lateral transport of water – an imperative if' river discharge is to be estimated. The concept of a complexity chain for coupled modelling systems is introduced, together with considerations for mixing model components. Under BALTEX (Baltic Sea Experiment and SWECLIM (Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, a large-scale hydrological model of runoff in the Baltic Basin is used to review atmospheric climate model simulations. This incorporates both the runoff record and hydrological modelling experience into atmospheric model development. Results from two models are shown. A conclusion is that the key to improved models may be less complexity. Perhaps the meteorological models should keep their multi-layered approach for modelling soil temperature, but add a simpler, yet physically consistent, hydrological approach for modelling snow processes and water transport in the soil. Keywords: land surface modelling; hydrological modelling; atmospheric climate models; subgrid variability; Baltic Basin

Machine learning modeling of plant phenology based on coupling satellite and gridded meteorological dataset

Science.gov (United States)

Czernecki, Bartosz; Nowosad, Jakub; Jabłońska, Katarzyna

2018-04-01

Changes in the timing of plant phenological phases are important proxies in contemporary climate research. However, most of the commonly used traditional phenological observations do not give any coherent spatial information. While consistent spatial data can be obtained from airborne sensors and preprocessed gridded meteorological data, not many studies robustly benefit from these data sources. Therefore, the main aim of this study is to create and evaluate different statistical models for reconstructing, predicting, and improving quality of phenological phases monitoring with the use of satellite and meteorological products. A quality-controlled dataset of the 13 BBCH plant phenophases in Poland was collected for the period 2007-2014. For each phenophase, statistical models were built using the most commonly applied regression-based machine learning techniques, such as multiple linear regression, lasso, principal component regression, generalized boosted models, and random forest. The quality of the models was estimated using a k-fold cross-validation. The obtained results showed varying potential for coupling meteorological derived indices with remote sensing products in terms of phenological modeling; however, application of both data sources improves models' accuracy from 0.6 to 4.6 day in terms of obtained RMSE. It is shown that a robust prediction of early phenological phases is mostly related to meteorological indices, whereas for autumn phenophases, there is a stronger information signal provided by satellite-derived vegetation metrics. Choosing a specific set of predictors and applying a robust preprocessing procedures is more important for final results than the selection of a particular statistical model. The average RMSE for the best models of all phenophases is 6.3, while the individual RMSE vary seasonally from 3.5 to 10 days. Models give reliable proxy for ground observations with RMSE below 5 days for early spring and late spring phenophases. For

Testing the importance of accurate meteorological input fields and parameterizations in atmospheric transport modelling using DREAM - Validation against ETEX-1

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brandt, J.; Bastrup-Birk, A.; Christensen, J.H.

1998-01-01

A tracer model, the DREAM, which is based on a combination of a near-range Lagrangian model and a long-range Eulerian model, has been developed. The meteorological meso-scale model, MM5V1, is implemented as a meteorological driver for the tracer model. The model system is used for studying...

Modelling regional scale surface fluxes, meteorology and CO2 mixing ratios for the Cabauw tower in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tolk, L.F.; Peters, W.; Meesters, A.G.C.A.; Groenendijk, M.; Vermeulen, A.T.; Steeneveld, G.J.; Dolman, A.J.

2009-01-01

We simulated meteorology and atmospheric CO2 transport over the Netherlands with the mesoscale model RAMS-Leaf3 coupled to the biospheric CO2 flux model 5PM. The results were compared with meteorological and CO2 observations, with emphasis on the tall tower of Cabauw. An analysis of the coupled

Advanced software tool for the creation of a typical meteorological year

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skeiker, Kamal; Ghani, Bashar Abdul

2008-01-01

The generation of a typical meteorological year is of great importance for calculations concerning many applications in the field of thermal engineering. In this context, method that has been proposed by Hall et al. is selected for generating typical data, and an improved criterion for final selection of typical meteorological month (TMM) was demonstrated. The final selection of the most representative year was done by examining a composite score S. The composite score was calculated as the weighed sum of the scores of the four meteorological parameters used. These parameters are air dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and global solar radiation intensity. Moreover, a new modern software tool using Delphi 6.0 has been developed, utilizing the Filkenstein-Schafer statistical method for the creation of a typical meteorological year for any site of concern. Whereas, an improved criterion for final selection of typical meteorological month was employed. Such tool allows the user to perform this task without an intimate knowledge of all of the computational details. The final alphanumerical and graphical results are presented on screen, and can be saved to a file or printed as a hard copy. Using this software tool, a typical meteorological year was generated for Damascus, capital of Syria, as a test run example. The data processed used were obtained from the Department of Meteorology and cover a period of 10 years (1991-2000)

Regional-to-Urban Enviro-HIRLAM Downscaling for Meteorological and Chemical Patterns over Chinese Megacities

Science.gov (United States)

Mahura, Alexander; Nuterman, Roman; Gonzalez-Aparicio, Iratxe; Amstrup, Bjarne; Baklanov, Alexander; Yang, Xiaohua; Nielsen, Kristian

2015-04-01

Due to strong economic growth in the past decades, air pollution became a serious problem in megacities and major industrial agglomerations of China. So, information on air quality in these urbanized areas is important for population. In particular, the metropolitan areas of Shanghai, Beijing, and Pearl River Delta are well known as main regions with serious air pollution issues. One of the aims of the EU FP7 MarcoPolo project is to improve existing regional-meso-urban/city scale air quality forecasts using improved emission inventories and to validate modelling results using satellite and ground-based measurements. The Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model) adapted for the Shanghai region of China is applied for forecasting. The model is urbanized using the Building Effects Parameterization module, which describes different types of urban districts such as industrial commercial, city center, high density and residential with its own characteristics. For sensitivity studies, the model was run in downscaling chain from regional-to-urban scales at subsequent horizontal resolutions of 15-5-2.5 km for selected dates with elevated pollution levels and unfavorable meteorological conditions. For these dates, the effects of urbanization are analyzed for atmospheric transport, dispersion, deposition, and chemical transformations. The evaluation of formation and development of meteorological and chemical/aerosol patterns due to influence of the urban areas is performed. The impact of selected (in a model domain) megacities of China is estimated on regional-to-urban scales, as well as relationship between air pollution and meteorology are studied.

Evaluating the effects of model structure and meteorological input data on runoff modelling in an alpine headwater basin

Science.gov (United States)

Schattan, Paul; Bellinger, Johannes; Förster, Kristian; Schöber, Johannes; Huttenlau, Matthias; Kirnbauer, Robert; Achleitner, Stefan

2017-04-01

Modelling water resources in snow-dominated mountainous catchments is challenging due to both, short concentration times and a highly variable contribution of snow melt in space and time from complex terrain. A number of model setups exist ranging from physically based models to conceptional models which do not attempt to represent the natural processes in a physically meaningful way. Within the flood forecasting system for the Tyrolean Inn River two serially linked hydrological models with differing process representation are used. Non- glacierized catchments are modelled by a semi-distributed, water balance model (HQsim) based on the HRU-approach. A fully-distributed energy and mass balance model (SES), purpose-built for snow- and icemelt, is used for highly glacierized headwater catchments. Previous work revealed uncertainties and limitations within the models' structures regarding (i) the representation of snow processes in HQsim, (ii) the runoff routing of SES, and (iii) the spatial resolution of the meteorological input data in both models. To overcome these limitations, a "strengths driven" model coupling is applied. Instead of linking the models serially, a vertical one-way coupling of models has been implemented. The fully-distributed snow modelling of SES is combined with the semi-distributed HQsim structure, allowing to benefit from soil and runoff routing schemes in HQsim. A monte-carlo based modelling experiment was set up to evaluate the resulting differences in the runoff prediction due to the improved model coupling and a refined spatial resolution of the meteorological forcing. The experiment design follows a gradient of spatial discretisation of hydrological processes and meteorological forcing data with a total of six different model setups for the alpine headwater basin of the Fagge River in the Tyrolean Alps. In general, all setups show a good performance for this particular basin. It is therefore planned to include other basins with differing

Modelling surface run-off and trends analysis over India

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

exponential model was developed between the rainfall and the run-off that predicted the run-off with an R2 of ... precipitation and other climate parameters is well documented ...... Sen P K 1968 Estimates of the regression coefficient based.

Modeling of meteorology, chemistry and aerosol for the 2017 Utah Winter Fine Particle Study

Science.gov (United States)

McKeen, S. A.; Angevine, W. M.; McDonald, B.; Ahmadov, R.; Franchin, A.; Middlebrook, A. M.; Fibiger, D. L.; McDuffie, E. E.; Womack, C.; Brown, S. S.; Moravek, A.; Murphy, J. G.; Trainer, M.

2017-12-01

The Utah Winter Fine Particle Study (UWFPS-17) field project took place during January and February of 2017 within the populated region of the Great Salt Lake, Utah. The study focused on understanding the meteorology and chemistry associated with high particulate matter (PM) levels often observed near Salt Lake City during stable wintertime conditions. Detailed composition and meteorological observations were taken from the NOAA Twin-Otter aircraft and several surface sites during the study period, and extremely high aerosol conditions were encountered for two cold-pool episodes occurring in the last 2 weeks of January. A clear understanding of the photochemical and aerosol processes leading to these high PM events is still lacking. Here we present high spatiotemporal resolution simulations of meteorology, PM and chemistry over Utah from January 13 to February 1, 2017 using the WRF/Chem photochemical model. Correctly characterizing the meteorology is difficult due to the complex terrain and shallow inversion layers. We discuss the approach and limitations of the simulated meteorology, and evaluate low-level pollutant mixing using vertical profiles from missed airport approaches by the NOAA Twin-Otter performed routinely during each flight. Full photochemical simulations are calculated using NOx, ammonia and VOC emissions from the U.S. EPA NEI-2011 emissions inventory. Comparisons of the observed vertical column amounts of NOx, ammonia, aerosol nitrate and ammonium with model results shows the inventory estimates for ammonia emissions are low by a factor of four and NOx emissions are low by nearly a factor of two. The partitioning of both nitrate and NH3 between gas and particle phase depends strongly on the NH3 and NOx emissions to the model and calculated NOx to nitrate conversion rates. These rates are underestimated by gas-phase chemistry alone, even though surface snow albedo increases photolysis rates by nearly a factor of two. Several additional conversion

Instantaneous Linkages between Clouds and Large-Scale Meteorology over the Southern Ocean in Observations and a Climate Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wall, Casey J. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Hartmann, Dennis L. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Ma, Po-Lun [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

2017-12-01

Instantaneous, coincident, footprint-level satellite observations of cloud properties and radiation taken during austral summer over the Southern Ocean are used to study relationships between clouds and large-scale meteorology. Cloud properties are very sensitive to the strength of vertical motion in the middle-troposphere, and low-cloud properties are sensitive to estimated inversion strength, low-level temperature advection, and sea surface temperature. These relationships are quantified. An index for the meteorological anomalies associated with midlatitude cyclones is presented, and it is used to reveal the sensitivity of clouds to the meteorology within the warm- and cold-sector of cyclones. The observed relationships between clouds and meteorology are compared to those in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) using satellite simulators. Low-clouds simulated by CAM5 are too few, too bright, and contain too much ice, and low-clouds located in the cold-sector of cyclones are too sensitive to variations in the meteorology. The latter two biases are dramatically reduced when CAM5 is coupled with an updated boundary layer parameterization know as Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB). More generally, this study demonstrates that examining the instantaneous timescale is a powerful approach to understanding the physical processes that control clouds and how they are represented in climate models. Such an evaluation goes beyond the cloud climatology and exposes model bias under various meteorological conditions.

Improved meteorology from an updated WRF/CMAQ modeling system with MODIS vegetation and albedo

Science.gov (United States)

Realistic vegetation characteristics and phenology from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products improve the simulation for the meteorology and air quality modeling system WRF/CMAQ (Weather Research and Forecasting model and Community Multiscale Air Qual...

Coupling X-band dual-polarized mini-radars and hydro-meteorological forecast models: the HYDRORAD project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Picciotti

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Hydro-meteorological hazards like convective outbreaks leading to torrential rain and floods are among the most critical environmental issues world-wide. In that context weather radar observations have proven to be very useful in providing information on the spatial distribution of rainfall that can support early warning of floods. However, quantitative precipitation estimation by radar is subjected to many limitations and uncertainties. The use of dual-polarization at high frequency (i.e. X-band has proven particularly useful for mitigating some of the limitation of operational systems, by exploiting the benefit of easiness to transport and deploy and the high spatial and temporal resolution achievable at small antenna sizes. New developments on X-band dual-polarization technology in recent years have received the interest of scientific and operational communities in these systems. New enterprises are focusing on the advancement of cost-efficient mini-radar network technology, based on high-frequency (mainly X-band and low-power weather radar systems for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological forecasting. Within the above context, the main objective of the HYDRORAD project was the development of an innovative mbox{integrated} decision support tool for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological applications. The integrated system tool is based on a polarimetric X-band mini-radar network which is the core of the decision support tool, a novel radar products generator and a hydro-meteorological forecast modelling system that ingests mini-radar rainfall products to forecast precipitation and floods. The radar products generator includes algorithms for attenuation correction, hydrometeor classification, a vertical profile reflectivity correction, a new polarimetric rainfall estimators developed for mini-radar observations, and short-term nowcasting of convective cells. The hydro-meteorological modelling system includes the Mesoscale Model 5

Performance assessment of retrospective meteorological inputs for use in air quality modeling during TexAQS 2006

Science.gov (United States)

Ngan, Fong; Byun, Daewon; Kim, Hyuncheol; Lee, Daegyun; Rappenglück, Bernhard; Pour-Biazar, Arastoo

2012-07-01

To achieve more accurate meteorological inputs than was used in the daily forecast for studying the TexAQS 2006 air quality, retrospective simulations were conducted using objective analysis and 3D/surface analysis nudging with surface and upper observations. Model ozone using the assimilated meteorological fields with improved wind fields shows better agreement with the observation compared to the forecasting results. In the post-frontal conditions, important factors for ozone modeling in terms of wind patterns are the weak easterlies in the morning for bringing in industrial emissions to the city and the subsequent clockwise turning of the wind direction induced by the Coriolis force superimposing the sea breeze, which keeps pollutants in the urban area. Objective analysis and nudging employed in the retrospective simulation minimize the wind bias but are not able to compensate for the general flow pattern biases inherited from large scale inputs. By using an alternative analyses data for initializing the meteorological simulation, the model can re-produce the flow pattern and generate the ozone peak location closer to the reality. The inaccurate simulation of precipitation and cloudiness cause over-prediction of ozone occasionally. Since there are limitations in the meteorological model to simulate precipitation and cloudiness in the fine scale domain (less than 4-km grid), the satellite-based cloud is an alternative way to provide necessary inputs for the retrospective study of air quality.

A Meteorological Information Mining-Based Wind Speed Model for Adequacy Assessment of Power Systems With Wind Power

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guo, Yifei; Gao, Houlei; Wu, Qiuwei

2017-01-01

Accurate wind speed simulation is an essential prerequisite to analyze the power systems with wind power. A wind speed model considering meteorological conditions and seasonal variations is proposed in this paper. Firstly, using the path analysis method, the influence weights of meteorological...... systems with wind power. The assessment results of the modified IEEE-RTS79 and IEEE-RTS96 demonstrated the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed model....

Modeling PM2.5 Urban Pollution Using Machine Learning and Selected Meteorological Parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Kleine Deters

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Outdoor air pollution costs millions of premature deaths annually, mostly due to anthropogenic fine particulate matter (or PM2.5. Quito, the capital city of Ecuador, is no exception in exceeding the healthy levels of pollution. In addition to the impact of urbanization, motorization, and rapid population growth, particulate pollution is modulated by meteorological factors and geophysical characteristics, which complicate the implementation of the most advanced models of weather forecast. Thus, this paper proposes a machine learning approach based on six years of meteorological and pollution data analyses to predict the concentrations of PM2.5 from wind (speed and direction and precipitation levels. The results of the classification model show a high reliability in the classification of low (25 µg/m3 and low (<10 µg/m3 versus moderate (10–25 µg/m3 concentrations of PM2.5. A regression analysis suggests a better prediction of PM2.5 when the climatic conditions are getting more extreme (strong winds or high levels of precipitation. The high correlation between estimated and real data for a time series analysis during the wet season confirms this finding. The study demonstrates that the use of statistical models based on machine learning is relevant to predict PM2.5 concentrations from meteorological data.

A Method for Evaluation of Model-Generated Vertical Profiles of Meteorological Variables

Science.gov (United States)

2016-03-01

evaluated WRF output for the boundary layer over Svalbard in the Arctic in terms of height above ground compared to tower and tethered balloon ...Valparaiso, Chile; 2011. Dutsch ML. Evaluation of the WRF model based on observations made by controlled meteorological balloons in the atmospheric

Investigations of the adequacy of the meteorological transport model developed for the reactor safety study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spring, J.L.; Brown, W.D.; Church, H.W.; McGrath, P.E.; Ritchie, L.T.; Russo, A.J.; Steck, G.P.; Wayland, J.R.; Blond, R.M.; Wall, I.B.

1978-01-01

A computer model (CRAC) was developed for the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) [1] to estimate the consequences of postulated accidents at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. One hundred reactors at 68 sites were included in the study. The 68 sites were divided into 6 classes according to their geographic location and meteorology. For each site class, a composite population distribution was constructed from the true population distributions at each of the sites comprising that class, and a reference site was chosen for which a full year of meteorological data (wind speed, atmospheric stability, occurrence of rain) was obtained. Given data about a postulated accident (probability, amounts of the released radionuclides, etc.) and the reference reactor site (meteorology, composite population, land usage), CRAC was used to calculate the atmospheric dispersion and ground deposition of the released radionuclides (Gaussian plume submodel) and the health effects (dosimetric and dose response submodels) and costs (land interdiction and decontamination submodel) resulting from their release. The Gaussian plume model used in CRAC either did not treat or treated simplistically a number of meteorological phenomena. Simplified models were used to treat plume rise, inversion layers, and rainstorms, while wind shear, wind direction, and correlations between wind fields and population distributions were not treated at all. Some of the effects of all of these phenomena on predictions of accident consequences as calculated using CRAC have been or are being investigated. The results of these studies are summarized

Utilization of mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC as a meteorological forecast model in nuclear emergency response system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagai, Haruyasu; Yamazawa, Hiromi

1997-01-01

It is advantageous for an emergency response system to have a forecast function to provide a time margin for countermeasures in case of a nuclear accident. We propose to apply an atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC (Prognostic HYdroStatic model Including turbulence Closure model) as a meteorological forecast model in the emergency system. The model uses GPV data which are the output of the numerical weather forecast model of Japan Meteorological Agency as the initial and boundary conditions. The roles of PHYSIC are the interface between GPV data and the emergency response system and the forecast of local atmospheric phenomena within the model domain. This paper presents a scheme to use PHYSIC to forecast local wind and its performance. Horizontal grid number of PHYSIC is fixed to 50 x 50, whereas the mesh and domain sizes are determined in consideration of topography causing local winds at an objective area. The model performance was examined for the introduction of GPV data through initial and boundary conditions and the predictability of local wind field and atmospheric stability. The model performance was on an acceptable level as the forecast model. It was also recognized that improvement of cloud calculation was necessary in simulating atmospheric stability. (author)

LES-based generation of high-frequency fluctuation in wind turbulence obtained by meteorological model

Science.gov (United States)

Tamura, Tetsuro; Kawaguchi, Masaharu; Kawai, Hidenori; Tao, Tao

2017-11-01

The connection between a meso-scale model and a micro-scale large eddy simulation (LES) is significant to simulate the micro-scale meteorological problem such as strong convective events due to the typhoon or the tornado using LES. In these problems the mean velocity profiles and the mean wind directions change with time according to the movement of the typhoons or tornadoes. Although, a fine grid micro-scale LES could not be connected to a coarse grid meso-scale WRF directly. In LES when the grid is suddenly refined at the interface of nested grids which is normal to the mean advection the resolved shear stresses decrease due to the interpolation errors and the delay of the generation of smaller scale turbulence that can be resolved on the finer mesh. For the estimation of wind gust disaster the peak wind acting on buildings and structures has to be correctly predicted. In the case of meteorological model the velocity fluctuations have a tendency of diffusive variation without the high frequency component due to the numerically filtering effects. In order to predict the peak value of wind velocity with good accuracy, this paper proposes a LES-based method for generating the higher frequency components of velocity and temperature fields obtained by meteorological model.

Semantic 3d City Model to Raster Generalisation for Water Run-Off Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Verbree, E.; de Vries, M.; Gorte, B.; Oude Elberink, S.; Karimlou, G.

2013-09-01

Water run-off modelling applied within urban areas requires an appropriate detailed surface model represented by a raster height grid. Accurate simulations at this scale level have to take into account small but important water barriers and flow channels given by the large-scale map definitions of buildings, street infrastructure, and other terrain objects. Thus, these 3D features have to be rasterised such that each cell represents the height of the object class as good as possible given the cell size limitations. Small grid cells will result in realistic run-off modelling but with unacceptable computation times; larger grid cells with averaged height values will result in less realistic run-off modelling but fast computation times. This paper introduces a height grid generalisation approach in which the surface characteristics that most influence the water run-off flow are preserved. The first step is to create a detailed surface model (1:1.000), combining high-density laser data with a detailed topographic base map. The topographic map objects are triangulated to a set of TIN-objects by taking into account the semantics of the different map object classes. These TIN objects are then rasterised to two grids with a 0.5m cell-spacing: one grid for the object class labels and the other for the TIN-interpolated height values. The next step is to generalise both raster grids to a lower resolution using a procedure that considers the class label of each cell and that of its neighbours. The results of this approach are tested and validated by water run-off model runs for different cellspaced height grids at a pilot area in Amersfoort (the Netherlands). Two national datasets were used in this study: the large scale Topographic Base map (BGT, map scale 1:1.000), and the National height model of the Netherlands AHN2 (10 points per square meter on average). Comparison between the original AHN2 height grid and the semantically enriched and then generalised height grids shows

100 Years of Army Artillery Meteorology: A Brief Summary

Science.gov (United States)

2018-02-01

2 Fig. 2 Chart illustrating the progression from MMS-P to PVM and potentially running on a virtual machine... illustrates the progression from the MMS-P to the current PVM and its potential form as a virtual module. Fig. 2 Chart illustrating the progression from...Atmospheric Research (US); 1995. Report No: NCAR/TN-398+STR; 122 pp. 2. Harper K. Weather by the numbers: the genesis of modern meteorology. Cambridge

Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Mountain Using Analogue Meteorological Data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faybishenko, Boris

2005-01-01

At Yucca Mountain, NV, future changes in climatic conditions will probably alter net infiltration, drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile, or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this study were to: (1) develop a semiempirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analog meteorological stations, for interglacial(present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region; and (2) corroborate the computed net infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. This study approached calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation effectiveness indices using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate, following a power law relationship between net infiltration and precipitation. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties associated with selecting climate analog sites, using relatively short analog meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and run-on on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenically induced climate changes

Analysis of source regions and meteorological factors for the variability of spring PM10 concentrations in Seoul, Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jangho; Kim, Kwang-Yul

2018-02-01

CSEOF analysis is applied for the springtime (March, April, May) daily PM10 concentrations measured at 23 Ministry of Environment stations in Seoul, Korea for the period of 2003-2012. Six meteorological variables at 12 pressure levels are also acquired from the ERA Interim reanalysis datasets. CSEOF analysis is conducted for each meteorological variable over East Asia. Regression analysis is conducted in CSEOF space between the PM10 concentrations and individual meteorological variables to identify associated atmospheric conditions for each CSEOF mode. By adding the regressed loading vectors with the mean meteorological fields, the daily atmospheric conditions are obtained for the first five CSEOF modes. Then, HYSPLIT model is run with the atmospheric conditions for each CSEOF mode in order to back trace the air parcels and dust reaching Seoul. The K-means clustering algorithm is applied to identify major source regions for each CSEOF mode of the PM10 concentrations in Seoul. Three main source regions identified based on the mean fields are: (1) northern Taklamakan Desert (NTD), (2) Gobi Desert and (GD), and (3) East China industrial area (ECI). The main source regions for the mean meteorological fields are consistent with those of previous study; 41% of the source locations are located in GD followed by ECI (37%) and NTD (21%). Back trajectory calculations based on CSEOF analysis of meteorological variables identify distinct source characteristics associated with each CSEOF mode and greatly facilitate the interpretation of the PM10 variability in Seoul in terms of transportation route and meteorological conditions including the source area.

A risk evaluation model using on-site meteorological data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, C.S.

1979-01-01

A model is considered in order to evaluate the potential risk from a nuclear facility directly combining the on site meteorological data. The model is utilized to evaluate the environmental consequences from the routine releases during normal plant operation as well as following postulated accidental releases. The doses to individual and risks to the population-at-large are also analyzed in conjunction with design of rad-waste management and safety systems. It is observed that the conventional analysis, which is done in two separate unaffiliated phases of releases and atmospheric dispersion tends to result in unnecessary over-design of the systems because of high resultant doses calculated by multiplication of two extreme values. (author)

Pre- and post-processing of hydro-meteorological ensembles for the Norwegian flood forecasting system in 145 basins.

Science.gov (United States)

Jahr Hegdahl, Trine; Steinsland, Ingelin; Merete Tallaksen, Lena; Engeland, Kolbjørn

2016-04-01

Probabilistic flood forecasting has an added value for decision making. The Norwegian flood forecasting service is based on a flood forecasting model that run for 145 basins. Covering all of Norway the basins differ in both size and hydrological regime. Currently the flood forecasting is based on deterministic meteorological forecasts, and an auto-regressive procedure is used to achieve probabilistic forecasts. An alternative approach is to use meteorological and hydrological ensemble forecasts to quantify the uncertainty in forecasted streamflow. The hydrological ensembles are based on forcing a hydrological model with meteorological ensemble forecasts of precipitation and temperature. However, the ensembles of precipitation are often biased and the spread is too small, especially for the shortest lead times, i.e. they are not calibrated. These properties will, to some extent, propagate to hydrological ensembles, that most likely will be uncalibrated as well. Pre- and post-processing methods are commonly used to obtain calibrated meteorological and hydrological ensembles respectively. Quantitative studies showing the effect of the combined processing of the meteorological (pre-processing) and the hydrological (post-processing) ensembles are however few. The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of pre- and post-processing on the skill of streamflow predictions, and we will especially investigate if the forecasting skill depends on lead-time, basin size and hydrological regime. This aim is achieved by applying the 51 medium-range ensemble forecast of precipitation and temperature provided by the European Center of Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). These ensembles are used as input to the operational Norwegian flood forecasting model, both raw and pre-processed. Precipitation ensembles are calibrated using a zero-adjusted gamma distribution. Temperature ensembles are calibrated using a Gaussian distribution and altitude corrected by a constant gradient

Running vacuum cosmological models: linear scalar perturbations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Perico, E.L.D. [Instituto de Física, Universidade de São Paulo, Rua do Matão 1371, CEP 05508-090, São Paulo, SP (Brazil); Tamayo, D.A., E-mail: elduartep@usp.br, E-mail: tamayo@if.usp.br [Departamento de Astronomia, Universidade de São Paulo, Rua do Matão 1226, CEP 05508-900, São Paulo, SP (Brazil)

2017-08-01

In cosmology, phenomenologically motivated expressions for running vacuum are commonly parameterized as linear functions typically denoted by Λ( H {sup 2}) or Λ( R ). Such models assume an equation of state for the vacuum given by P-bar {sub Λ} = - ρ-bar {sub Λ}, relating its background pressure P-bar {sub Λ} with its mean energy density ρ-bar {sub Λ} ≡ Λ/8π G . This equation of state suggests that the vacuum dynamics is due to an interaction with the matter content of the universe. Most of the approaches studying the observational impact of these models only consider the interaction between the vacuum and the transient dominant matter component of the universe. We extend such models by assuming that the running vacuum is the sum of independent contributions, namely ρ-bar {sub Λ} = Σ {sub i} ρ-bar {sub Λ} {sub i} . Each Λ i vacuum component is associated and interacting with one of the i matter components in both the background and perturbation levels. We derive the evolution equations for the linear scalar vacuum and matter perturbations in those two scenarios, and identify the running vacuum imprints on the cosmic microwave background anisotropies as well as on the matter power spectrum. In the Λ( H {sup 2}) scenario the vacuum is coupled with every matter component, whereas the Λ( R ) description only leads to a coupling between vacuum and non-relativistic matter, producing different effects on the matter power spectrum.

Modeling and roles of meteorological factors in outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paritosh K Biswas

Full Text Available The highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H5N1 (HPAI H5N1 is a deadly zoonotic pathogen. Its persistence in poultry in several countries is a potential threat: a mutant or genetically reassorted progenitor might cause a human pandemic. Its world-wide eradication from poultry is important to protect public health. The global trend of outbreaks of influenza attributable to HPAI H5N1 shows a clear seasonality. Meteorological factors might be associated with such trend but have not been studied. For the first time, we analyze the role of meteorological factors in the occurrences of HPAI outbreaks in Bangladesh. We employed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA and multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA to assess the roles of different meteorological factors in outbreaks of HPAI. Outbreaks were modeled best when multiplicative seasonality was incorporated. Incorporation of any meteorological variable(s as inputs did not improve the performance of any multivariable models, but relative humidity (RH was a significant covariate in several ARIMA and SARIMA models with different autoregressive and moving average orders. The variable cloud cover was also a significant covariate in two SARIMA models, but air temperature along with RH might be a predictor when moving average (MA order at lag 1 month is considered.

Modeling driver stop/run behavior at the onset of a yellow indication considering driver run tendency and roadway surface conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Elhenawy, Mohammed; Jahangiri, Arash; Rakha, Hesham A; El-Shawarby, Ihab

2015-10-01

The ability to model driver stop/run behavior at signalized intersections considering the roadway surface condition is critical in the design of advanced driver assistance systems. Such systems can reduce intersection crashes and fatalities by predicting driver stop/run behavior. The research presented in this paper uses data collected from two controlled field experiments on the Smart Road at the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) to model driver stop/run behavior at the onset of a yellow indication for different roadway surface conditions. The paper offers two contributions. First, it introduces a new predictor related to driver aggressiveness and demonstrates that this measure enhances the modeling of driver stop/run behavior. Second, it applies well-known artificial intelligence techniques including: adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), random forest, and support vector machine (SVM) algorithms as well as traditional logistic regression techniques on the data in order to develop a model that can be used by traffic signal controllers to predict driver stop/run decisions in a connected vehicle environment. The research demonstrates that by adding the proposed driver aggressiveness predictor to the model, there is a statistically significant increase in the model accuracy. Moreover the false alarm rate is significantly reduced but this reduction is not statistically significant. The study demonstrates that, for the subject data, the SVM machine learning algorithm performs the best in terms of optimum classification accuracy and false positive rates. However, the SVM model produces the best performance in terms of the classification accuracy only. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using climate derivatives for assessment of meteorological parameter relationships in RCM and observations

Science.gov (United States)

Timuhins, Andrejs; Bethers, Uldis; Bethers, Peteris; Klints, Ilze; Sennikovs, Juris; Frishfelds, Vilnis

2017-04-01

In a changing climate it is essential to estimate its impacts on different economic fields. In our study we tried to create a framework for climate change assessment and climate change impact estimation for the territory of Latvia and to create results which are also understandable for non-scientists (stakeholder, media and public). This approach allowed us to more carefully assess the presentation and interpretation of results and their validation, for public viewing. For the presentation of our work a website was created (www.modlab.lv/klimats) containing two types of documents in a unified framework, meteorological parameter analysis of different easily interpretable derivative values. Both of these include analysis of the current situation as well as illustrate the projection for future time periods. Derivate values are calculated using two data sources: the bias corrected regional climate data and meteorological observation data. Derivative documents contain description of derived value, some interesting facts and conclusions. Additionally, all results may be viewed in temporal and spatial graphs and maps, for different time periods as well as different seasons. Bias correction (Sennikovs and Bethers, 2009) for the control period 1961-1990 is applied to RCM data series. Meteorological observation data of the Latvian Environment, Geology, and Meteorology Agency and ENSEMBLES project daily data of 13 RCM runs for the period 1960-2100 are used. All the documents are prepared in python notebooks, which allow for flexible changes. At the moment following derivative values have been published: forest fire risk index, wind energy, phenology (Degree days), road condition (friction, ice conditions), daily minimal meteorological visibility, headache occurrence rate, firs snow date and meteorological parameter analysis: temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, and cloudiness. While creating these products RCM ability to represent the actual climate was

Integrating meteorology into research on migration.

Science.gov (United States)

Shamoun-Baranes, Judy; Bouten, Willem; van Loon, E Emiel

2010-09-01

Atmospheric dynamics strongly influence the migration of flying organisms. They affect, among others, the onset, duration and cost of migration, migratory routes, stop-over decisions, and flight speeds en-route. Animals move through a heterogeneous environment and have to react to atmospheric dynamics at different spatial and temporal scales. Integrating meteorology into research on migration is not only challenging but it is also important, especially when trying to understand the variability of the various aspects of migratory behavior observed in nature. In this article, we give an overview of some different modeling approaches and we show how these have been incorporated into migration research. We provide a more detailed description of the development and application of two dynamic, individual-based models, one for waders and one for soaring migrants, as examples of how and why to integrate meteorology into research on migration. We use these models to help understand underlying mechanisms of individual response to atmospheric conditions en-route and to explain emergent patterns. This type of models can be used to study the impact of variability in atmospheric dynamics on migration along a migratory trajectory, between seasons and between years. We conclude by providing some basic guidelines to help researchers towards finding the right modeling approach and the meteorological data needed to integrate meteorology into their own research. © The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity of regional meteorology and atmospheric composition during the DISCOVER-AQ period to subgrid-scale cloud-radiation interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, X.; Allen, D. J.; Herwehe, J. A.; Alapaty, K. V.; Loughner, C.; Pickering, K. E.

2014-12-01

Subgrid-scale cloudiness directly influences global and regional atmospheric radiation budgets by attenuating shortwave radiation, leading to suppressed convection, decreased surface precipitation as well as other meteorological parameter changes. We use the latest version of WRF (v3.6, Apr 2014), which incorporates the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization to provide subgrid-scale cloud fraction and condensate feedback to the rapid radiative transfer model-global (RRTMG) shortwave and longwave radiation schemes. We apply the KF scheme to simulate the DISCOVER-AQ Maryland field campaign (July 2011), and compare the sensitivity of meteorological parameters to the control run that does not include subgrid cloudiness. Furthermore, we will examine the chemical impact from subgrid cloudiness using a regional chemical transport model (CMAQ). There are several meteorological parameters influenced by subgrid cumulus clouds that are very important to air quality modeling, including changes in surface temperature that impact biogenic emission rates; changes in PBL depth that affect pollutant concentrations; and changes in surface humidity levels that impact peroxide-related reactions. Additionally, subgrid cumulus clouds directly impact air pollutant concentrations by modulating photochemistry and vertical mixing. Finally, we will compare with DISCOVER-AQ flight observation data and evaluate how well this off-line CMAQ simulation driven by WRF with the KF scheme simulates the effects of regional convection on atmospheric composition.

Numerical experiments with assimilation of the mean and unresolved meteorological conditions into large-eddy simulation model

OpenAIRE

Esau, Igor

2010-01-01

Micrometeorology, city comfort, land use management and air quality monitoring increasingly become important environmental issues. To serve the needs, meteorology needs to achieve a serious advance in representation and forecast on micro-scales (meters to 100 km) called meteorological terra incognita. There is a suitable numerical tool, namely, the large-eddy simulation modelling (LES) to support the development. However, at present, the LES is of limited utility for applications. The study a...

Transitioning Enhanced Land Surface Initialization and Model Verification Capabilities to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)

Science.gov (United States)

Case, Jonathan L.; Mungai, John; Sakwa, Vincent; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Limaye, Ashutosh; Blankenship, Clay B.

2016-01-01

Flooding, severe weather, and drought are key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), based in Nairobi, Kenya. Atmospheric processes leading to convection, excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content, especially during anomalous conditions and dry/wet seasonal transitions. It is thus important to represent accurately land surface state variables (green vegetation fraction, soil moisture, and soil temperature) in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The NASA SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) programs in Huntsville, AL have established a working partnership with KMD to enhance its regional modeling capabilities. SPoRT and SERVIR are providing experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities for capacity building at KMD. To support its forecasting operations, KMD is running experimental configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; Skamarock et al. 2008) model on a 12-km/4-km nested regional domain over eastern Africa, incorporating the land surface datasets provided by NASA SPoRT and SERVIR. SPoRT, SERVIR, and KMD participated in two training sessions in March 2014 and June 2015 to foster the collaboration and use of unique land surface datasets and model verification capabilities. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather and climate outlooks over Eastern Africa. For enhanced land-surface initialization, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run over Eastern Africa at 3-km resolution, providing real-time land surface initialization data in place of interpolated global model soil moisture and temperature data available at coarser resolutions. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction (GVF) composites from the Suomi-NPP VIIRS instrument is being incorporated

Effects of meteorological models on the solution of the surface energy balance and soil temperature variations in bare soils

Science.gov (United States)

Saito, Hirotaka; Šimůnek, Jiri

2009-07-01

SummaryA complete evaluation of the soil thermal regime can be obtained by evaluating the movement of liquid water, water vapor, and thermal energy in the subsurface. Such an evaluation requires the simultaneous solution of the system of equations for the surface water and energy balance, and subsurface heat transport and water flow. When only daily climatic data is available, one needs not only to estimate diurnal cycles of climatic data, but to calculate the continuous values of various components in the energy balance equation, using different parameterization methods. The objective of this study is to quantify the impact of the choice of different estimation and parameterization methods, referred together to as meteorological models in this paper, on soil temperature predictions in bare soils. A variety of widely accepted meteorological models were tested on the dataset collected at a proposed low-level radioactive-waste disposal site in the Chihuahua Desert in West Texas. As the soil surface was kept bare during the study, no vegetation effects were evaluated. A coupled liquid water, water vapor, and heat transport model, implemented in the HYDRUS-1D program, was used to simulate diurnal and seasonal soil temperature changes in the engineered cover installed at the site. The modified version of HYDRUS provides a flexible means for using various types of information and different models to evaluate surface mass and energy balance. Different meteorological models were compared in terms of their prediction errors for soil temperatures at seven observation depths. The results obtained indicate that although many available meteorological models can be used to solve the energy balance equation at the soil-atmosphere interface in coupled water, vapor, and heat transport models, their impact on overall simulation results varies. For example, using daily average climatic data led to greater prediction errors, while relatively simple meteorological models may

60 years of UK visibility measurements: impact of meteorology and atmospheric pollutants on visibility

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Ajit; Bloss, William J.; Pope, Francis D.

2017-02-01

Reduced visibility is an indicator of poor air quality. Moreover, degradation in visibility can be hazardous to human safety; for example, low visibility can lead to road, rail, sea and air accidents. In this paper, we explore the combined influence of atmospheric aerosol particle and gas characteristics, and meteorology, on long-term visibility. We use visibility data from eight meteorological stations, situated in the UK, which have been running since the 1950s. The site locations include urban, rural and marine environments. Most stations show a long-term trend of increasing visibility, which is indicative of reductions in air pollution, especially in urban areas. Additionally, the visibility at all sites shows a very clear dependence on relative humidity, indicating the importance of aerosol hygroscopicity on the ability of aerosol particles to scatter radiation. The dependence of visibility on other meteorological parameters, such as wind speed and wind direction, is also investigated. Most stations show long-term increases in temperature which can be ascribed to climate change, land-use changes (e.g. urban heat island effects) or a combination of both; the observed effect is greatest in urban areas. The impact of this temperature change upon local relative humidity is discussed. To explain the long-term visibility trends and their dependence on meteorological conditions, the measured data were fitted to a newly developed light-extinction model to generate predictions of historic aerosol and gas scattering and absorbing properties. In general, an excellent fit was achieved between measured and modelled visibility for all eight sites. The model incorporates parameterizations of aerosol hygroscopicity, particle concentration, particle scattering, and particle and gas absorption. This new model should be applicable and is easily transferrable to other data sets worldwide. Hence, historical visibility data can be used to assess trends in aerosol particle

On the influence of meteorological input on photochemical modelling of a severe episode over a coastal area

Science.gov (United States)

Pirovano, G.; Coll, I.; Bedogni, M.; Alessandrini, S.; Costa, M. P.; Gabusi, V.; Lasry, F.; Menut, L.; Vautard, R.

The modelling reconstruction of the processes determining the transport and mixing of ozone and its precursors in complex terrain areas is a challenging task, particularly when local-scale circulations, such as sea breeze, take place. Within this frame, the ESCOMPTE European campaign took place in the vicinity of Marseille (south-east of France) in summer 2001. The main objectives of the field campaign were to document several photochemical episodes, as well as to constitute a detailed database for chemistry transport models intercomparison. CAMx model has been applied on the largest intense observation periods (IOP) (June 21-26, 2001) in order to evaluate the impacts of two state-of-the-art meteorological models, RAMS and MM5, on chemical model outputs. The meteorological models have been used as best as possible in analysis mode, thus allowing to identify the spread arising in pollutant concentrations as an indication of the intrinsic uncertainty associated to the meteorological input. Simulations have been deeply investigated and compared with a considerable subset of observations both at ground level and along vertical profiles. The analysis has shown that both models were able to reproduce the main circulation features of the IOP. The strongest discrepancies are confined to the Planetary Boundary Layer, consisting of a clear tendency to underestimate or overestimate wind speed over the whole domain. The photochemical simulations showed that variability in circulation intensity was crucial mainly for the representation of the ozone peaks and of the shape of ozone plumes at the ground that have been affected in the same way over the whole domain and all along the simulated period. As a consequence, such differences can be thought of as a possible indicator for the uncertainty related to the definition of meteorological fields in a complex terrain area.

Evaluation of Savannah River Plant emergency response models using standard and nonstandard meteorological data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoel, D.D.

1984-01-01

Two computer codes have been developed for operational use in performing real time evaluations of atmospheric releases from the Savannah River Plant (SRP) in South Carolina. These codes, based on mathematical models, are part of the SRP WIND (Weather Information and Display) automated emergency response system. Accuracy of ground level concentrations from a Gaussian puff-plume model and a two-dimensional sequential puff model are being evaluated with data from a series of short range diffusion experiments using sulfur hexafluoride as a tracer. The models use meteorological data collected from 7 towers on SRP and at the 300 m WJBF-TV tower about 15 km northwest of SRP. The winds and the stability, which is based on turbulence measurements, are measured at the 60 m stack heights. These results are compared to downwind concentrations using only standard meteorological data, i.e., adjusted 10 m winds and stability determined by the Pasquill-Turner stability classification method. Scattergrams and simple statistics were used for model evaluations. Results indicate predictions within accepted limits for the puff-plume code and a bias in the sequential puff model predictions using the meteorologist-adjusted nonstandard data. 5 references, 4 figures, 2 tables

Meteorological considerations in emergency response capability at nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fairobent, J.E.

1985-01-01

Meteorological considerations in emergency response at nuclear power plants are discussed through examination of current regulations and guidance documents, including discussion of the rationale for current regulatory requirements related to meteorological information for emergency response. Areas discussed include: major meteorological features important to emergency response; onsite meteorological measurements programs, including redundant and backup measurements; access to offsite sources of meteorological information; consideration of real-time and forecast conditions and atmospheric dispersion modeling

Air pollution meteorology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shirvaikar, V V; Daoo, V J [Environmental Assessment Div., Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India)

2002-06-01

This report is intended as a training cum reference document for scientists posted at the Environmental Laboratories at the Nuclear Power Station Sites and other sites of the Department of Atomic Energy with installations emitting air pollutants, radioactive or otherwise. Since a manual already exists for the computation of doses from radioactive air pollutants, a general approach is take here i.e. air pollutants in general are considered. The first chapter presents a brief introduction to the need and scope of air pollution dispersion modelling. The second chapter is a very important chapter discussing the aspects of meteorology relevant to air pollution and dispersion modelling. This chapter is important because without this information one really does not understand the phenomena affecting dispersion, the scope and applicability of various models or their limitations under various weather and site conditions. The third chapter discusses the air pollution models in detail. These models are applicable to distances of a few tens of kilometres. The fourth chapter discusses the various aspects of meteorological measurements relevant to air pollution. The chapters are followed by two appendices. Apendix A discusses the reliability of air pollution estimates. Apendix B gives some practical examples relevant to general air pollution. It is hoped that the document will prove very useful to the users. (author)

Computing Models of CDF and D0 in Run II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lammel, S.

1997-05-01

The next collider run of the Fermilab Tevatron, Run II, is scheduled for autumn of 1999. Both experiments, the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF) and the D0 experiment are being modified to cope with the higher luminosity and shorter bunchspacing of the Tevatron. New detector components, higher event complexity, and an increased data volume require changes from the data acquisition systems up to the analysis systems. In this paper we present a summary of the computing models of the two experiments for Run II

Computing Models of CDF and D0 in Run II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lammel, S.

1997-01-01

The next collider run of the Fermilab Tevatron, Run II, is scheduled for autumn of 1999. Both experiments, the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF) and the D0 experiment are being modified to cope with the higher luminosity and shorter bunch spacing of the Tevatron. New detector components, higher event complexity, and an increased data volume require changes from the data acquisition systems up to the analysis systems. In this paper we present a summary of the computing models of the two experiments for Run II

Ground-based remote sensing profiling and numerical weather prediction model to manage nuclear power plants meteorological surveillance in Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Calpini

2011-08-01

Full Text Available The meteorological surveillance of the four nuclear power plants in Switzerland is of first importance in a densely populated area such as the Swiss Plateau. The project "Centrales Nucléaires et Météorologie" CN-MET aimed at providing a new security tool based on one hand on the development of a high resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP model. The latter is providing essential nowcasting information in case of a radioactive release from a nuclear power plant in Switzerland. On the other hand, the model input over the Swiss Plateau is generated by a dedicated network of surface and upper air observations including remote sensing instruments (wind profilers and temperature/humidity passive microwave radiometers. This network is built upon three main sites ideally located for measuring the inflow/outflow and central conditions of the main wind field in the planetary boundary layer over the Swiss Plateau, as well as a number of surface automatic weather stations (AWS. The network data are assimilated in real-time into the fine grid NWP model using a rapid update cycle of eight runs per day (one forecast every three hours. This high resolution NWP model has replaced the former security tool based on in situ observations (in particular one meteorological mast at each of the power plants and a local dispersion model. It is used to forecast the dynamics of the atmosphere in the planetary boundary layer (typically the first 4 km above ground layer and over a time scale of 24 h. This tool provides at any time (e.g. starting at the initial time of a nuclear power plant release the best picture of the 24-h evolution of the air mass over the Swiss Plateau and furthermore generates the input data (in the form of simulated values substituting in situ observations required for the local dispersion model used at each of the nuclear power plants locations. This paper is presenting the concept and two validation studies as well as the results of an

Interim report on the meteorological database

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stage, S.A.; Ramsdell, J.V.; Simonen, C.A.; Burk, K.W.

1993-01-01

The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project is estimating radiation doses that individuals may have received from operations at Hanford from 1944 to the present. An independent Technical Steering Panel (TSP) directs the project, which is being conducted by the Battelle, Pacific Northwest Laboratories in Richland, Washington. The goals of HEDR, as approved by the TSP, include dose estimates and determination of confidence ranges for these estimates. This letter report describes the current status of the meteorological database. The report defines the meteorological data available for use in climate model calculations, describes the data collection procedures and the preparation and control of the meteorological database. This report also provides an initial assessment of the data quality. The available meteorological data are adequate for atmospheric calculations. Initial checks of the data indicate the data entry accuracy meets the data quality objectives

Airline meteorological requirements

Science.gov (United States)

Chandler, C. L.; Pappas, J.

1985-01-01

A brief review of airline meteorological/flight planning is presented. The effects of variations in meteorological parameters upon flight and operational costs are reviewed. Flight path planning through the use of meteorological information is briefly discussed.

The value of using seasonality and meteorological variables to model intra-urban PM2.5 variation

Science.gov (United States)

Olvera Alvarez, Hector A.; Myers, Orrin B.; Weigel, Margaret; Armijos, Rodrigo X.

2018-06-01

A yearlong air monitoring campaign was conducted to assess the impact of local temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed on the temporal and spatial variability of PM2.5 in El Paso, Texas. Monitoring was conducted at four sites purposely selected to capture the local traffic variability. Effects of meteorological events on seasonal PM2.5 variability were identified. For instance, in winter low-wind and low-temperature conditions were associated with high PM2.5 events that contributed to elevated seasonal PM2.5 levels. Similarly, in spring, high PM2.5 events were associated with high-wind and low-relative humidity conditions. Correlation coefficients between meteorological variables and PM2.5 fluctuated drastically across seasons. Specifically, it was observed that for most sites correlations between PM2.5 and meteorological variables either changed from positive to negative or dissolved depending on the season. Overall, the results suggest that mixed effects analysis with season and site as fixed factors and meteorological variables as covariates could increase the explanatory value of LUR models for PM2.5.

Blast forecasting guide for the Site 300 Meteorology Center

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Odell, B.N.; Pfeifer, H.E.; Arganbright, V.E.

1978-01-01

These step-by-step procedures enable an occasional operator to run the Site 300 Meteorological Center. The primary function of the Center is to determine the maximum weight of high explosives that can be fired at Site 300 under any given meteorological conditions. A secondary function is to supply weather data for other programs such as ARAC (Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability). Included in the primary function are radar and theodolite operations for balloon tracking; calculation of temperatures for various altitudes using Oakland weather obtained from a teletype; computer terminal operation to obtain wind directions, wind velocities, temperatures, and pressure at various altitudes; and methods to determine high-explosive weight limits for simple inversions and focus conditions using pressure-versus-altitude information obtained from the computer. General information is included such as names, telephone numbers, and addresses of maintenance personnel, additional sources of weather information, chart suppliers, balloons, spare parts, etc

Blast forecasting guide for the Site 300 Meteorology Center

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Odell, B.N.; Pfeifer, H.E.; Arganbright, V.E.

1978-06-01

These step-by-step procedures enable an occasional operator to run the Site 300 Meteorological Center. The primary function of the Center is to determine the maximum weight of high explosives that can be fired at Site 300 under any given meteorological conditions. A secondary function is to supply weather data for other programs such as ARAC (Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability). Included in the primary function are radar and theodolite operations for balloon tracking; calculation of temperatures for various altitudes using Oakland weather obtained from a teletype; computer terminal operation to obtain wind directions, wind velocities, temperatures, and pressure at various altitudes; and methods to determine high-explosive weight limits for simple inversions and focus conditions using pressure-versus-altitude information obtained from the computer. General information is included such as names, telephone numbers, and addresses of maintenance personnel, additional sources of weather information, chart suppliers, balloons, spare parts, etc.

Eighth joint conference on applications of air pollution meteorology with A & WMA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1994-12-31

The eighth Joint Conference on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology, held January 23-28, 1994, again brings together the American Meteorological Society and Air and Waste Management Association with a broader scientific community to examine the role of the atmosphere on current air quality issues. The CAA Amendments non-attainment title has brought renewed interest in the pairing of complex dynamical meteorological models with photochemical air quality models. Requirements that future attainment to regulations be demonstrated with these models invite a new look at model evaluation. The CAAA titles addressing air toxics have brought renewed interest in near-source dispersion and deposition of toxic chemicals. Consequently, this conference is divided into sessions focusing on topics related to these issues. They include: The Dispersion Environment; Meteorology in Emissions Determination; Long-Range and Mesoscale Pollutant Transport and Fate; Meteorology and Photochemistry; Advanced Dispersion Models and Modeling Systems; Topics in Model Evaluation; Complex Flow Affecting Dispersion Near Structures; and Coastal and Complex Terrain Issues Evaluation.

Future directions of meteorology related to air-quality research.

Science.gov (United States)

Seaman, Nelson L

2003-06-01

Meteorology is one of the major factors contributing to air-pollution episodes. More accurate representation of meteorological fields has been possible in recent years through the use of remote sensing systems, high-speed computers and fine-mesh meteorological models. Over the next 5-20 years, better meteorological inputs for air quality studies will depend on making better use of a wealth of new remotely sensed observations in more advanced data assimilation systems. However, for fine mesh models to be successful, parameterizations used to represent physical processes must be redesigned to be more precise and better adapted for the scales at which they will be applied. Candidates for significant overhaul include schemes to represent turbulence, deep convection, shallow clouds, and land-surface processes. Improvements in the meteorological observing systems, data assimilation and modeling, coupled with advancements in air-chemistry modeling, will soon lead to operational forecasting of air quality in the US. Predictive capabilities can be expected to grow rapidly over the next decade. This will open the way for a number of valuable new services and strategies, including better warnings of unhealthy atmospheric conditions, event-dependent emissions restrictions, and now casting support for homeland security in the event of toxic releases into the atmosphere.

Annual report of the Dynamic Meteorology Laboratory, 1986

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-01-01

Research on climate simulation; data assimilation and forecasting; nonlinear dynamics and atmospheric turbulence; wave dynamics in the middle atmosphere; African and tropical meteorology and climatology; spectroscopy and modeling of atmospheric radiation; satellite meteorology and climatology; and active lidar remote sensing is presented [fr

Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Tai, A. P. K.; Fiore, A. M.; Mauzerall, D. L.

2016-01-01

Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU)

Science.gov (United States)

Bauman, William; Crawford, Winifred; Barrett, Joe; Watson, Leela; Wheeler, Mark

2010-01-01

This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) activities for the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2010 (October - December 2009). A detailed project schedule is included in the Appendix. Included tasks are: (1) Peak Wind Tool for User Launch Commit Criteria (LCC), (2) Objective Lightning Probability Tool, Phase III, (3) Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting, Phase II, (4) Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool in Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS), (5) Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) Update and Maintainability, (5) Verify 12-km resolution North American Model (MesoNAM) Performance, and (5) Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) Graphical User Interface.

Assessment of a surface-layer parameterization scheme in an atmospheric model for varying meteorological conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. J. Anurose

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The performance of a surface-layer parameterization scheme in a high-resolution regional model (HRM is carried out by comparing the model-simulated sensible heat flux (H with the concurrent in situ measurements recorded at Thiruvananthapuram (8.5° N, 76.9° E, a coastal station in India. With a view to examining the role of atmospheric stability in conjunction with the roughness lengths in the determination of heat exchange coefficient (CH and H for varying meteorological conditions, the model simulations are repeated by assigning different values to the ratio of momentum and thermal roughness lengths (i.e. z0m/z0h in three distinct configurations of the surface-layer scheme designed for the present study. These three configurations resulted in differential behaviour for the varying meteorological conditions, which is attributed to the sensitivity of CH to the bulk Richardson number (RiB under extremely unstable, near-neutral and stable stratification of the atmosphere.

Meteorological safeguarding of nuclear power plant operation in Czechoslovakia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rak, J.; Skulec, S.

1976-01-01

A meteorological tower 200 m high has to be built for meteorological control of the operation of the A-1 nuclear power plant at Jaslovske Bohunice. This meteorological station will measure the physical properties of the lower layers of the atmosphere, carry out experimental verifications of the models of air pollution, investigate the effects of waste heat and waste water from the nuclear power plant on the microclimate, provide the theoretical processing of measured data with the aim of selecting the most favourable model for conditions prevailing in the Czechoslovak Socialist Republic, perform basic research of the physical properties of the ground and boundary layers of the atmosphere and the coordination of state-wide plans in the field of securing the operation of nuclear power plants with regard to meteorology. (Z.M.)

Prediction Model for Demands of the Health Meteorological Information Using a Decision Tree Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jina Oh, RN, PhD

2010-09-01

Conclusions: It can be effectively used as a reference model for future studies and is a suggested direction in health meteorological information service and policy development. We suggest health forecasting as a nursing service and a primary health care network for healthier and more comfortable life.

Thermally-aware composite run-time CPU power models

OpenAIRE

Walker, Matthew J.; Diestelhorst, Stephan; Hansson, Andreas; Balsamo, Domenico; Merrett, Geoff V.; Al-Hashimi, Bashir M.

2016-01-01

Accurate and stable CPU power modelling is fundamental in modern system-on-chips (SoCs) for two main reasons: 1) they enable significant online energy savings by providing a run-time manager with reliable power consumption data for controlling CPU energy-saving techniques; 2) they can be used as accurate and trusted reference models for system design and exploration. We begin by showing the limitations in typical performance monitoring counter (PMC) based power modelling approaches and illust...

Development and validation of the European Cluster Assimilation Techniques run libraries

Science.gov (United States)

Facskó, G.; Gordeev, E.; Palmroth, M.; Honkonen, I.; Janhunen, P.; Sergeev, V.; Kauristie, K.; Milan, S.

2012-04-01

The European Commission funded the European Cluster Assimilation Techniques (ECLAT) project as a collaboration of five leader European universities and research institutes. A main contribution of the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) is to provide a wide range global MHD runs with the Grand Unified Magnetosphere Ionosphere Coupling simulation (GUMICS). The runs are divided in two categories: Synthetic runs investigating the extent of solar wind drivers that can influence magnetospheric dynamics, as well as dynamic runs using measured solar wind data as input. Here we consider the first set of runs with synthetic solar wind input. The solar wind density, velocity and the interplanetary magnetic field had different magnitudes and orientations; furthermore two F10.7 flux values were selected for solar radiation minimum and maximum values. The solar wind parameter values were constant such that a constant stable solution was archived. All configurations were run several times with three different (-15°, 0°, +15°) tilt angles in the GSE X-Z plane. The result of the 192 simulations named so called "synthetic run library" were visualized and uploaded to the homepage of the FMI after validation. Here we present details of these runs.

Motivational Meteorology.

Science.gov (United States)

Benjamin, Lee

1993-01-01

Describes an introductory meteorology course for nonacademic high school students. The course is made hands-on by the use of an educational software program offered by Accu-Weather. The program contains a meteorology database and instructional modules. (PR)

10 km running performance predicted by a multiple linear regression model with allometrically adjusted variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Abad, Cesar C C; Barros, Ronaldo V; Bertuzzi, Romulo; Gagliardi, João F L; Lima-Silva, Adriano E; Lambert, Mike I; Pires, Flavio O

2016-06-01

The aim of this study was to verify the power of VO 2max , peak treadmill running velocity (PTV), and running economy (RE), unadjusted or allometrically adjusted, in predicting 10 km running performance. Eighteen male endurance runners performed: 1) an incremental test to exhaustion to determine VO 2max and PTV; 2) a constant submaximal run at 12 km·h -1 on an outdoor track for RE determination; and 3) a 10 km running race. Unadjusted (VO 2max , PTV and RE) and adjusted variables (VO 2max 0.72 , PTV 0.72 and RE 0.60 ) were investigated through independent multiple regression models to predict 10 km running race time. There were no significant correlations between 10 km running time and either the adjusted or unadjusted VO 2max . Significant correlations (p 0.84 and power > 0.88. The allometrically adjusted predictive model was composed of PTV 0.72 and RE 0.60 and explained 83% of the variance in 10 km running time with a standard error of the estimate (SEE) of 1.5 min. The unadjusted model composed of a single PVT accounted for 72% of the variance in 10 km running time (SEE of 1.9 min). Both regression models provided powerful estimates of 10 km running time; however, the unadjusted PTV may provide an uncomplicated estimation.

Modelling the long-run supply of coal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steenblik, R.P.

1992-01-01

There are many issues facing policy-makers in the fields of energy and the environment that require knowledge of coal supply and cost. Such questions arise in relation to decisions concerning, for example, the discontinuation of subsidies, or the effects of new environmental laws. The very complexity of these questions makes them suitable for analysis by models. Indeed, models have been used for analysing the behaviour of coal markets and the effects of public policies on them for many years. For estimating short-term responses econometric models are the most suitable. For estimating the supply of coal over the longer term, however - i.e., coal that would come from mines as yet not developed - depletion has to be taken into account. Underlying the normal supply curve relating cost to the rate of production is a curve that increases with cumulative production - what mineral economists refer to as the potential supply curve. To derive such a curve requires at some point in the analysis using process-oriented modelling techniques. Because coal supply curves can convey so succinctly information about the resource's long-run supply potential and costs, they have been influential in several major public debates on energy policy. And, within the coal industry itself, they have proved to be powerful tools for undertaking market research and long-range planning. The purpose of this paper is to describe in brief the various approaches that have been used to model long-run coal supply, to highlight their strengths, and to identify areas in which further progress is needed. (author)

Meteorological satellite systems

CERN Document Server

Tan, Su-Yin

2014-01-01

“Meteorological Satellite Systems” is a primer on weather satellites and their Earth applications. This book reviews historic developments and recent technological advancements in GEO and polar orbiting meteorological satellites. It explores the evolution of these remote sensing technologies and their capabilities to monitor short- and long-term changes in weather patterns in response to climate change. Satellites developed by various countries, such as U.S. meteorological satellites, EUMETSAT, and Russian, Chinese, Japanese and Indian satellite platforms are reviewed. This book also discusses international efforts to coordinate meteorological remote sensing data collection and sharing. This title provides a ready and quick reference for information about meteorological satellites. It serves as a useful tool for a broad audience that includes students, academics, private consultants, engineers, scientists, and teachers.

Wind Power Meteorology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lundtang Petersen, Erik; Mortensen, Niels Gylling; Landberg, Lars

Wind power meteorology has evolved as an applied science, firmly founded on boundary-layer meteorology, but with strong links to climatology and geography. It concerns itself with three main areas: siting of wind turbines, regional wind resource assessment, and short-term prediction of the wind...... resource. The history, status and perspectives of wind power meteorology are presented, with emphasis on physical considerations and on its practical application. Following a global view of the wind resource, the elements of boundary layer meteorology which are most important for wind energy are reviewed......: wind profiles and shear, turbulence and gust, and extreme winds. The data used in wind power meteorology stem mainly from three sources: onsite wind measurements, the synoptic networks, and the re-analysis projects. Wind climate analysis, wind resource estimation and siting further require a detailed...

Model study of meteorology and photochemical air pollution over un urban area in south-eastern France (ESCOMPTE campaign).

Science.gov (United States)

Taghavi, M.; Cautenet, S.

2003-04-01

The ESCOMPTE Campaign has been conducted over Southern France (Provence region including the Marseille, Aix and Toulon cities and the Fos-Berre industrial center) in June and July of 2001. In order to study the redistribution of the pollutants emitted by anthropic and biogenic emissions and their impact on the atmospheric chemistry, we used meso-scale modeling (RAMS model, paralleled version 4.3, coupled on line with chemical modules : MOCA2.2 (Poulet et al, 2002) including 29 gaseous species). The hourly high resolution emissions were obtained from ESCOMPTE database (Ponche et al, 2002). The model was coupled with the dry deposition scheme (Walmsley and Weseley,1996). In this particular case of complex circulation (sea breeze associated with topography), the processes involving peaks of pollution were strongly non linear, and the meso scale modeling coupled on line with chemistry module was an essential step for a realistic redistribution of chemical species. Two nested grids satisfactorily describe the synoptic dynamics and the sea breeze circulations. The ECMWF meteorological fields provide the initial and boundary conditions. Different events characterized by various meteorological situations were simulated. Meteorological fields retrieved by modeling, also Modeled ozone, NOx, CO and SO2 concentrations, were compared with balloons, lidars, aircrafts and surface stations measurements. The chemistry regimes were explained according to the distribution of plumes. The stratified layers were examined.

Exploring the Utility of Model-based Meteorology Data for Heat-Related Health Research and Surveillance

Science.gov (United States)

Vaidyanathan, A.; Yip, F.

2017-12-01

Context: Studies that have explored the impacts of environmental exposure on human health have mostly relied on data from weather stations, which can be limited in geographic scope. For this assessment, we: (1) evaluated the performance of the meteorological data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS) model with measurements from weather stations for public health and specifically for CDC's Environmental Public Health Tracking Program, and (2) conducted a health assessment to explore the relationship between heat exposure and mortality, and examined region-specific differences in heat-mortality (H-M) relationships when using model-based estimates in place of measurements from weather stations.Methods: Meteorological data from the NLDAS Phase 2 model was evaluated against measurements from weather stations. A time-series analysis was conducted, using both station- and model-based data, to generate H-M relationships for counties in the U.S. The county-specific risk information was pooled to characterize regional relationships for both station- and model-based data, which were then compared to identify degrees of overlap and discrepancies between results generated using the two data sources. Results: NLDAS-based heat metrics were in agreement with those generated using weather station data. In general, the H-M relationship tended to be non-linear and varied by region, particularly the heat index value at which the health risks become positively significant. However, there was a high degree of overlap between region-specific H-M relationships generated from weather stations and the NLDAS model.Interpretation: Heat metrics from NLDAS model are available for all counties in the coterminous U.S. from 1979-2015. These data can facilitate health research and surveillance activities exploring health impacts associated with long-term heat exposures at finer geographic scales.Conclusion: High spatiotemporal coverage of environmental health data

Statistical modeling of phenological phases in Poland based on coupling satellite derived products and gridded meteorological data

Science.gov (United States)

Czernecki, Bartosz; Jabłońska, Katarzyna; Nowosad, Jakub

2016-04-01

The aim of the study was to create and evaluate different statistical models for reconstructing and predicting selected phenological phases. This issue is of particular importance in Poland where national-wide phenological monitoring was abandoned in the middle of 1990s and the reactivated network was established in 2006. Authors decided to evaluate possibilities of using a wide-range of statistical modeling techniques to create synthetic archive dataset. Additionally, a robust tool for predicting the most distinguishable phenophases using only free of charge data as predictors was created. Study period covers the years 2007-2014 and contains only quality-controlled dataset of 10 species and 14 phenophases. Phenological data used in this study originates from the manual observations network run by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB). Three kind of data sources were used as predictors: (i) satellite derived products, (ii) preprocessed gridded meteorological data, and (iii) spatial properties (longitude, latitude, altitude) of the monitoring site. Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) level-3 vegetation products were used for detecting onset dates of particular phenophases. Following indices were used: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Leaf Area Index (LAI), and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fPAR). Additionally, Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) products were chosen to detect occurrence of snow cover. Due to highly noisy data, authors decided to take into account pixel reliability information. Besides satellite derived products (NDVI, EVI, FPAR, LAI, Snow cover), a wide group of observational data and agrometeorological indices derived from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D) were used as a potential predictors: cumulative growing degree days (GDD), cumulative growing precipitation days (GPD

Predicting residential air exchange rates from questionnaires and meteorology: model evaluation in central North Carolina.

Science.gov (United States)

Breen, Michael S; Breen, Miyuki; Williams, Ronald W; Schultz, Bradley D

2010-12-15

A critical aspect of air pollution exposure models is the estimation of the air exchange rate (AER) of individual homes, where people spend most of their time. The AER, which is the airflow into and out of a building, is a primary mechanism for entry of outdoor air pollutants and removal of indoor source emissions. The mechanistic Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) AER model was linked to a leakage area model to predict AER from questionnaires and meteorology. The LBL model was also extended to include natural ventilation (LBLX). Using literature-reported parameter values, AER predictions from LBL and LBLX models were compared to data from 642 daily AER measurements across 31 detached homes in central North Carolina, with corresponding questionnaires and meteorological observations. Data was collected on seven consecutive days during each of four consecutive seasons. For the individual model-predicted and measured AER, the median absolute difference was 43% (0.17 h(-1)) and 40% (0.17 h(-1)) for the LBL and LBLX models, respectively. Additionally, a literature-reported empirical scale factor (SF) AER model was evaluated, which showed a median absolute difference of 50% (0.25 h(-1)). The capability of the LBL, LBLX, and SF models could help reduce the AER uncertainty in air pollution exposure models used to develop exposure metrics for health studies.

Scrub Typhus Incidence Modeling with Meteorological Factors in South Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwak, Jaewon; Kim, Soojun; Kim, Gilho; Singh, Vijay P; Hong, Seungjin; Kim, Hung Soo

2015-06-29

Since its recurrence in 1986, scrub typhus has been occurring annually and it is considered as one of the most prevalent diseases in Korea. Scrub typhus is a 3rd grade nationally notifiable disease that has greatly increased in Korea since 2000. The objective of this study is to construct a disease incidence model for prediction and quantification of the incidences of scrub typhus. Using data from 2001 to 2010, the incidence Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, which considers the time-lag between scrub typhus and minimum temperature, precipitation and average wind speed based on the Granger causality and spectral analysis, is constructed and tested for 2011 to 2012. Results show reliable simulation of scrub typhus incidences with selected predictors, and indicate that the seasonality in meteorological data should be considered.

Scrub Typhus Incidence Modeling with Meteorological Factors in South Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaewon Kwak

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Since its recurrence in 1986, scrub typhus has been occurring annually and it is considered as one of the most prevalent diseases in Korea. Scrub typhus is a 3rd grade nationally notifiable disease that has greatly increased in Korea since 2000. The objective of this study is to construct a disease incidence model for prediction and quantification of the incidences of scrub typhus. Using data from 2001 to 2010, the incidence Artificial Neural Network (ANN model, which considers the time-lag between scrub typhus and minimum temperature, precipitation and average wind speed based on the Granger causality and spectral analysis, is constructed and tested for 2011 to 2012. Results show reliable simulation of scrub typhus incidences with selected predictors, and indicate that the seasonality in meteorological data should be considered.

Air quality modeling in the Valley of Mexico: meteorology, emissions and forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia-Reynoso, A.; Jazcilevich, A. D.; Diaz-Nigenda, E.; Vazquez-Morales, W.; Torres-Jardon, R.; Ruiz-Suarez, G.; Tatarko, J.; Bornstein, R.

2007-12-01

The Valley of Mexico presents important challenges for air quality modeling: complex terrain, a great variety of anthropogenic and natural emissions sources, and high altitude and low latitude increasing the amount of radiation flux. The modeling group at the CCA-UNAM is using and merging state of the art models to study the different aspects that influence the air quality phenomenon in the Valley of Mexico. The air quality model MCCM that uses MM5 as its meteorological input has been a valuable tool to study important features of the complex and intricate atmospheric flows on the valley, such as local confluences and vertical fumigation. Air quality modeling has allowed studying the interaction between the atmospheres of the valleys surrounding the Valley of Mexico, prompting the location of measurement stations during the MILAGRO campaign. These measurements confirmed the modeling results and expanded our knowledge of the transport of pollutants between the Valleys of Cuernavaca, Puebla and Mexico. The urban landscape of Mexico City complicates meteorological modeling. Urban-MM5, a model that explicitly takes into account the influence of buildings, houses, streets, parks and anthropogenic heat, is being implemented. Preliminary results of urban-MM5 on a small area of the city have been obtained. The current emissions inventory uses traffic database that includes hourly vehicular activity in more than 11,000 street segments, includes 23 area emissions categories, more than 1,000 industrial sources and biogenic emissions. To improve mobile sources emissions a system consisting of a traffic model and a car simulator is underway. This system will allow for high time and space resolution and takes into account motor stress due to different driving regimes. An important source of emissions in the Valley of Mexico is erosion dust. The erosion model WEPS has been integrated with MM5 and preliminary results showing dust episodes over Mexico City have been obtained. A

THE VALUE OF NUDGING IN THE METEOROLOGY MODEL FOR RETROSPECTIVE CMAQ SIMULATIONS

Science.gov (United States)

Using a nudging-based data assimilation approach throughout a meteorology simulation (i.e., as a "dynamic analysis") is considered valuable because it can provide a better overall representation of the meteorology than a pure forecast. Dynamic analysis is often used in...

Short-run and long-run elasticities of import demand for crude oil in Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Altinay, Galip

2007-01-01

The aim of this study is to attempt to estimate the short-run and the long-run elasticities of demand for crude oil in Turkey by the recent autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration. As a developing country, Turkey meets its growing demand for oil principally by foreign suppliers. Thus, the study focuses on modelling the demand for imported crude oil using annual data covering the period 1980-2005. The bounds test results reveal that a long-run cointegration relationship exists between the crude oil import and the explanatory variables: nominal price and income, but not in the model that includes real price in domestic currency. The long-run parameters are estimated through a long-run static solution of the estimated ARDL model, and then the short-run dynamics are estimated by the error correction model. The estimated models pass the diagnostic tests successfully. The findings reveal that the income and price elasticities of import demand for crude oil are inelastic both in the short run and in the long run

Monitoring, modeling and mitigating impacts of wind farms on local meteorology

Science.gov (United States)

Baidya Roy, Somnath; Traiteur, Justin; Kelley, Neil

2010-05-01

Wind power is one of the fastest growing sources of energy. Most of the growth is in the industrial sector comprising of large utility-scale wind farms. Recent modeling studies have suggested that such wind farms can significantly affect local and regional weather and climate. In this work, we present observational evidence of the impact of wind farms on near-surface air temperatures. Data from perhaps the only meteorological field campaign in an operational wind farm shows that downwind temperatures are lower during the daytime and higher at night compared to the upwind environment. Corresponding radiosonde profiles at the nearby Edwards Air Force Base WMO meteorological station show that the diurnal environment is unstable while the nocturnal environment is stable during the field campaign. This behavior is consistent with the hypothesis proposed by Baidya Roy et al. (JGR 2004) that states that turbulence generated in the wake of rotors enhance vertical mixing leading to a warming/cooling under positive/negative potential temperature lapse rates. We conducted a set of 306 simulations with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to test if regional climate models can capture the thermal effects of wind farms. We represented wind turbines with a subgrid parameterization that assumes rotors to be sinks of momentum and sources of turbulence. The simulated wind farms consistently generated a localized warming/cooling under positive/negative lapse rates as hypothesized. We found that these impacts are inversely correlated with background atmospheric boundary layer turbulence. Thus, if the background turbulence is high due to natural processes, the effects of additional turbulence generated by wind turbine rotors are likely to be small. We propose the following strategies to minimize impacts of wind farms: • Engineering solution: design rotors that generate less turbulence in their wakes. Sensitivity simulations show that these turbines also increase the

Reduction of thermal models of buildings: improvement of techniques using meteorological influence models; Reduction de modeles thermiques de batiments: amelioration des techniques par modelisation des sollicitations meteorologiques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dautin, S.

1997-04-01

This work concerns the modeling of thermal phenomena inside buildings for the evaluation of energy exploitation costs of thermal installations and for the modeling of thermal and aeraulic transient phenomena. This thesis comprises 7 chapters dealing with: (1) the thermal phenomena inside buildings and the CLIM2000 calculation code, (2) the ETNA and GENEC experimental cells and their modeling, (3) the techniques of model reduction tested (Marshall`s truncature, Michailesco aggregation method and Moore truncature) with their algorithms and their encoding in the MATRED software, (4) the application of model reduction methods to the GENEC and ETNA cells and to a medium size dual-zone building, (5) the modeling of meteorological influences classically applied to buildings (external temperature and solar flux), (6) the analytical expression of these modeled meteorological influences. The last chapter presents the results of these improved methods on the GENEC and ETNA cells and on a lower inertia building. These new methods are compared to classical methods. (J.S.) 69 refs.

Comparison of HYSPLIT-4 model simulations of the ETEX data, using meteorological input data of differing spatial and temporal resolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hess, G.D.; Mills, G.A.; Draxler, R.R.

1997-01-01

Model simulations of air concentrations during ETEX-1 using the HYSPLIT-4 (HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectories, version 4) code and analysed meteorological data fields provided by ECMWF and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology are presented here. The HYSPLIT-4 model is a complete system for computing simple trajectories to complex dispersion and deposition simulations using either puff or particle approaches. A mixed dispersion algorithm is employed in this study: puffs in the horizontal and particles in the vertical

Modeling the impacts of green infrastructure land use changes on air quality and meteorology case study and sensitivity analysis in Kansas City

Science.gov (United States)

Changes in vegetation cover associated with urban planning efforts may affect regional meteorology and air quality. Here we use a comprehensive coupled meteorology-air quality model (WRF-CMAQ) to simulate the influence of planned land use changes from green infrastructure impleme...

Developing the Model for the GIS Applications in National Hydro-Meteorological Service in Poland

Science.gov (United States)

Kubacka, D.; Barszczynska, M.; Madej, P.

2003-04-01

Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMWM) manages the national hydrological-meteorological service, the task of which is to maintain the network of stations, process data, as well issue warnings, reports and announcements. There are 5 divisions of IMWM scattered all over Poland. Each division includes numerous stations and the scientific-research departments. The data gathered, processed and analysed in IMWM are space-related, therefore spatial information systems are indispensable for its processing and visualisation. The project of GIS application in (IMWM) will be discussed in the presentation. With the divisions being so dispersed, numerous and heterogeneous in structure, GIS implementation is very complicated. On the one hand GIS should enable advanced spatial analyses to be carried out by the research, as well as data processing departments. On the other hand, it should provide passive access to a limited scope of information (e.g. for outside customers). Need analysis was carried out first. It resulted in proposals concerning the content of shared resources of geometrical data and connections with attribute data, as well as in proposals of GIS use in routine works. A model was prepared using various types of GIS software depending on the requirements of each division. It is based on standard solutions involving professional GIS, desktop GIS and simple tools for data presentation. In some departments the specialised software had to be taken into account (e.g. satellite data processing). It is necessary to develop and implement dedicated research methods for some individual tasks. The analysis of mapping requirements showed that there is a need to prepare thematic maps at least at two levels of detail. Presently, the works are concentrated on assembling thematic layers for a general map (at 1: 500000 scale) sufficient for many applications, including data visualisation in the Internet and IMWM publications, as well as the tool for measurements and

The 1989 progress report: dynamic meteorology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sadourny, R.

1989-01-01

The 1989 progress report of the laboratory of Dynamic Meteorology of the Polytechnic School (France) is presented. The aim of the research programs is the dynamic study of climate and environment in relationship with the global athmospheric behavior. The investigations reported were performed in the fields of: climate modelling, dynamic study of Turbulence, analysis of atmospheric radiation and nebulosity, tropical meteorology and climate, Earth radioactive balance, lidar measurements, middle atmosphere studies. The published papers, the conferences and Laboratory staff are listed [fr

A long run intertemporal model of the oil market with uncertainty and strategic interaction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lensberg, T.; Rasmussen, H.

1991-06-01

This paper describes a model of the long run price uncertainty in the oil market. The main feature of the model is that the uncertainty about OPEC's price strategy is assumed to be generated not by irrational behavior on the part of OPEC, but by uncertainty about OPEC's size and time preference. The control of OPEC's pricing decision is assumed to shift among a set of OPEC-types over time according to a stochastic process, with each type implementing that price strategy which best fits the interests of its supporters. The model is fully dynamic on the supply side in the sense that all oil producers are assumed to understand the working of OPEC and the oil market, in particular, the non-OPEC producers base their investment decisions on rational price expectations. On the demand side, we assume that the market insight is less developed on the average, and model it by means of a long run demand curve on current prices and a simple lag structure. The long run demand curve for crude oil is generated by a fairly detailed static long-run equilibrium model of the product markets. Preliminary experience with the model indicate that prices are likely to stay below 20 dollars in the foreseeable future, but that prices around 30 dollars may occur if the present long run time perspective of OPEC is abandoned in favor of a more short run one. 26 refs., 4 figs., 7 tabs

A Low-order Coupled Chemistry Meteorology Model for Testing Online and Offline Advanced Data Assimilation Schemes

Science.gov (United States)

Bocquet, M.; Haussaire, J. M.

2015-12-01

Bocquet and Sakov have recently introduced a low-order model based on the coupling of thechaotic Lorenz-95 model which simulates winds along a mid-latitude circle, with thetransport of a tracer species advected by this wind field. It has been used to testadvanced data assimilation methods with an online model that couples meteorology andtracer transport. In the present study, the tracer subsystem of the model is replacedwith a reduced photochemistry module meant to emulate reactive air pollution. Thiscoupled chemistry meteorology model, the L95-GRS model, mimics continental andtranscontinental transport and photochemistry of ozone, volatile organic compounds andnitrogen dioxides.The L95-GRS is specially useful in testing advanced data assimilation schemes, such as theiterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS) that combines the best of ensemble andvariational methods. The model provides useful insights prior to any implementation ofthe data assimilation method on larger models. For instance, online and offline dataassimilation strategies based on the ensemble Kalman filter or the IEnKS can easily beevaluated with it. It allows to document the impact of species concentration observationson the wind estimation. The model also illustrates a long standing issue in atmosphericchemistry forecasting: the impact of the wind chaotic dynamics and of the chemical speciesnon-chaotic but highly nonlinear dynamics on the selected data assimilation approach.

Using Constraints from Satellite Gravimetry to Study Meteorological Excitations of the Chandler Wobble for an Earth Model with Frequency-dependent Responses

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, W.; Li, J.; Ray, J.; Cheng, M.; Chen, J.; Wilson, C. R.

2015-12-01

What maintain(s) the damping Chandler wobble (CW) is still under debate though meteorological excitations are now more preferred. However, controversial results have been obtained: Gross [2000] and Gross et al. [2003] suggested oceanic processes are more efficient to excite the CW than atmospheric ones during 1980 - 2000. Brzezinski and Nastula [2002] concluded that their contributions are almost the same, and they can only provide ~80% of the power needed to maintain the CW observed during 1985 - 1996. Polar motion excitations involve not only the perturbations within the Earth system (namely, mass redistributions and motions of relative to the mantle), but also the Earth's responses to those perturbations (namely, the rheology of the Earth). Chen et al. [2013a] developed an improved theory for polar motion excitation taking into account the Earth's frequency-dependent responses, of which the polar motion transfer functions are ~10% higher than those of previous theories around the CW band. Chen et al. [2013b] compared the geophysical excitations derived from various global atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological models (NCEP, ECCO, ERA40, ERAinterim and ECMWF operational products), and found significant and broad-band discrepancies for models released by different institutes. In addition, the atmosphere, ocean and hydrology models are usually developed in a somewhat independent manner and thus the global (atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological) mass is not conserved [e.g., Yan and Chao, 2012]. Therefore, the matter-term excitations estimated from those models are problematic. In one word, it is unlikely to obtain reliable conclusions on meteorological excitations of CW on the basis of the original meteorological models. Satellite gravimetry can measure mass transportations caused by atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological processes much more accurately than those provided by the original meteorological models, and can force the global (atmospheric, oceanic and

Software library of meteorological routines for air quality models; Libreria de software de procedimientos meteorologicos para modelos de dispersion de contaminantes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Galindo Garcia, Ivan Francisco

1999-04-01

Air quality models are an essential tool for most air pollution studies. The models require, however, certain meteorological information about the model domain. Some of the required meteorological parameters can be measured directly, but others must be estimated from available measured data. Therefore, a set of procedures, routines and computational programs to obtain all the meteorological and micrometeorological input data is required. The objective in this study is the identification and implementation of several relationships and methods for the determination of all the meteorological parameters required as input data by US-EPA recommended air pollution models. To accomplish this, a study about air pollution models was conducted, focusing, particularly, on the model meteorological input data. Also, the meteorological stations from the Servicio Meteorologico Nacional (SMN) were analyzed. The type and quality of the meteorological data produced was obtained. The routines and methods developed were based, particularly, on the data produced by SMN stations. Routines were organized in a software library, which allows one to build the specific meteorological processor needed, independently of the model used. Methods were validated against data obtained from an advanced meteorological station owned and operated by the Electrical Research Institute (Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas (IIE)). The results from the validation show that the estimation of the parameters required by air pollution models from routinely available data from Mexico meteorological stations is feasible and therefore let us take full advantage of the use of air pollution models. As an application example of the software library developed, the building of a meteorological processor for a specific air pollution model (CALPUFF) is described. The big advantage the library represents is evident from this example. [Espanol] Los modelos de dispersion de contaminantes constituyen una herramienta

Application of WRF/Chem-MADRID and WRF/Polyphemus in Europe - Part 1: Model description and evaluation of meteorological predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Y.; Sartelet, K.; Wu, S.-Y.; Seigneur, C.

2013-02-01

Comprehensive model evaluation and comparison of two 3-D air quality modeling systems (i.e. the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF)/Polyphemus and WRF with chemistry and the Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ionization, and Dissolution (MADRID) (WRF/Chem-MADRID) are conducted over western Europe. Part 1 describes the background information for the model comparison and simulation design, as well as the application of WRF for January and July 2001 over triple-nested domains in western Europe at three horizontal grid resolutions: 0.5°, 0.125°, and 0.025°. Six simulated meteorological variables (i.e. temperature at 2 m (T2), specific humidity at 2 m (Q2), relative humidity at 2 m (RH2), wind speed at 10 m (WS10), wind direction at 10 m (WD10), and precipitation (Precip)) are evaluated using available observations in terms of spatial distribution, domainwide daily and site-specific hourly variations, and domainwide performance statistics. WRF demonstrates its capability in capturing diurnal/seasonal variations and spatial gradients of major meteorological variables. While the domainwide performance of T2, Q2, RH2, and WD10 at all three grid resolutions is satisfactory overall, large positive or negative biases occur in WS10 and Precip even at 0.025°. In addition, discrepancies between simulations and observations exist in T2, Q2, WS10, and Precip at mountain/high altitude sites and large urban center sites in both months, in particular, during snow events or thunderstorms. These results indicate the model's difficulty in capturing meteorological variables in complex terrain and subgrid-scale meteorological phenomena, due to inaccuracies in model initialization parameterization (e.g. lack of soil temperature and moisture nudging), limitations in the physical parameterizations of the planetary boundary layer (e.g. cloud microphysics, cumulus parameterizations, and ice nucleation treatments) as well as limitations in surface heat and moisture budget

Meteorological data assimilation for real-time emergency response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugiyama, G.; Chan, S.T.

1996-11-01

The US Department of Energy's Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) provides real-time dose assessments of airborne pollutant releases. Diverse data assimilation techniques are required to meet the needs of a new generation of ARAC models and to take advantage of the rapidly expanding availability of meteorological data. We are developing a hierarchy of algorithms to provide gridded meteorological fields which can be used to drive dispersion codes or to provide initial fields for mesoscale models. Data to be processed include winds, temperature, moisture, and turbulence

Coupled simulation of meteorological parameters and sound intensity in a narrow valley

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heimann, D. [Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Gross, G. [Hannover Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Meteorologie und Klimatologie

1997-07-01

A meteorological mesoscale model is used to simulate the inhomogeneous distribution of temperature and the appertaining development of thermal wind systems in a narrow two-dimensional valley during the course of a cloud-free day. A simple sound particle model takes up the simulated meteorological fields and calculates the propagation of noise which originates from a line source at one of the slopes of this valley. The coupled modeling system ensures consistency of topography, meteorological parameters and the sound field. The temporal behaviour of the sound intensity level across the valley is examined. It is only governed by the time-dependent meteorology. The results show remarkable variations of the sound intensity during the course of a day depending on the location in the valley. (orig.) 23 refs.

Fine resolution atmospheric sulfate model driven by operational meteorological data: Comparison with observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benkovitz, C.M.; Schwartz, S.E.; Berkowitz, C.M.; Easter, R.C.

1993-09-01

The hypothesis that anthropogenic sulfur aerosol influences clear-sky and cloud albedo and can thus influence climate has been advanced by several investigators; current global-average climate forcing is estimated to be of comparable magnitude, but opposite sign, to longwave forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The high space and time variability of sulfate concentrations and column aerosol burdens have been established by observational data; however, geographic and time coverage provided by data from surface monitoring networks is very limited. Consistent regional and global estimates of sulfate aerosol loading, and the contributions to this loading from different sources can be obtained only by modeling studies. Here we describe a sub-hemispheric to global-scale Eulerian transport and transformation model for atmospheric sulfate and its precursors, driven by operational meteorological data, and report results of calculations for October, 1986 for the North Atlantic and adjacent continental regions. The model, which is based on the Global Chemistry Model uses meteorological data from the 6-hour forecast model of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast to calculate transport and transformation of sulfur emissions. Time- and location-dependent dry deposition velocities were estimated using the methodology of Wesely and colleagues. Chemical reactions includes gaseous oxidation of SO 2 and DMS by OH, and aqueous oxidation of SO 2 by H 2 O 2 and O 3 . Anthropogenic emissions were from the NAPAP and EMEP 1985 inventories and biogenic emissions based on Bates et al. Calculated sulfate concentrations and column burdens exhibit high variability on spatial scale of hundreds of km and temporal scale of days. Calculated daily average sulfate concentrations closely reproduce observed concentrations at locations widespread over the model domain

A rapid estimation of tsunami run-up based on finite fault models

Science.gov (United States)

Campos, J.; Fuentes, M. A.; Hayes, G. P.; Barrientos, S. E.; Riquelme, S.

2014-12-01

Many efforts have been made to estimate the maximum run-up height of tsunamis associated with large earthquakes. This is a difficult task, because of the time it takes to construct a tsunami model using real time data from the source. It is possible to construct a database of potential seismic sources and their corresponding tsunami a priori. However, such models are generally based on uniform slip distributions and thus oversimplify our knowledge of the earthquake source. Instead, we can use finite fault models of earthquakes to give a more accurate prediction of the tsunami run-up. Here we show how to accurately predict tsunami run-up from any seismic source model using an analytic solution found by Fuentes et al, 2013 that was especially calculated for zones with a very well defined strike, i.e, Chile, Japan, Alaska, etc. The main idea of this work is to produce a tool for emergency response, trading off accuracy for quickness. Our solutions for three large earthquakes are promising. Here we compute models of the run-up for the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule Earthquake, the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake, and the recent 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique Earthquake. Our maximum rup-up predictions are consistent with measurements made inland after each event, with a peak of 15 to 20 m for Maule, 40 m for Tohoku, and 2,1 m for the Iquique earthquake. Considering recent advances made in the analysis of real time GPS data and the ability to rapidly resolve the finiteness of a large earthquake close to existing GPS networks, it will be possible in the near future to perform these calculations within the first five minutes after the occurrence of any such event. Such calculations will thus provide more accurate run-up information than is otherwise available from existing uniform-slip seismic source databases.

Meteorology Products - Naval Oceanography Portal

Science.gov (United States)

section Advanced Search... Sections Home Time Earth Orientation Astronomy Meteorology Oceanography Ice You are here: Home › FNMOC › Meteorology Products FNMOC Logo FNMOC Navigation Meteorology Products Oceanography Products Tropical Applications Climatology and Archived Data Info Meteorology Products Global

Meteorological Monitoring Program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hancock, H.A. Jr.; Parker, M.J.; Addis, R.P.

1994-01-01

The purpose of this technical report is to provide a comprehensive, detailed overview of the meteorological monitoring program at the Savannah River Site (SRS) near Aiken, South Carolina. The principle function of the program is to provide current, accurate meteorological data as input for calculating the transport and diffusion of any unplanned release of an atmospheric pollutant. The report is recommended for meteorologists, technicians, or any personnel who require an in-depth understanding of the meteorological monitoring program

Meteorological Monitoring Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hancock, H.A. Jr. [ed.; Parker, M.J.; Addis, R.P.

1994-09-01

The purpose of this technical report is to provide a comprehensive, detailed overview of the meteorological monitoring program at the Savannah River Site (SRS) near Aiken, South Carolina. The principle function of the program is to provide current, accurate meteorological data as input for calculating the transport and diffusion of any unplanned release of an atmospheric pollutant. The report is recommended for meteorologists, technicians, or any personnel who require an in-depth understanding of the meteorological monitoring program.

MODELING OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GROUNDWATER FLOW AND OTHER METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES USING FUZZY LOGIC

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Şaban YURTÇU

2006-02-01

Full Text Available In this study, modeling of the effect of rainfall, flow and evaporation as independent variables on the change of underground water levels as dependent variables were investigated by fuzzy logic (FL. In the study, total 396 values taken from six observation stations belong to Afyon inferior basin in Akarçay from 1977 to 1989 years were used. Using the monthly average values of stations, the change of underground water level was modeled by FL. It is observed that the results obtained from FL and the observations are compatible with each other. This shows FL modeling can be used to estimate groundwater levels from the appropriate meteorological value.

Uncertainty in dispersion forecasts using meteorological ensembles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chin, H N; Leach, M J

1999-01-01

The usefulness of dispersion forecasts depends on proper interpretation of results. Understanding the uncertainty in model predictions and the range of possible outcomes is critical for determining the optimal course of action in response to terrorist attacks. One of the objectives for the Modeling and Prediction initiative is creating tools for emergency planning for special events such as the upcoming the Olympics. Meteorological forecasts hours to days in advance are used to estimate the dispersion at the time of the event. However, there is uncertainty in any meteorological forecast, arising from both errors in the data (both initial conditions and boundary conditions) and from errors in the model. We use ensemble forecasts to estimate the uncertainty in the forecasts and the range of possible outcomes

The running-mass inflation model and WMAP

OpenAIRE

Covi, Laura; Lyth, David H.; Melchiorri, Alessandro; Odman, Carolina J.

2004-01-01

We consider the observational constraints on the running-mass inflationary model, and in particular on the scale-dependence of the spectral index, from the new Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) anisotropy measurements performed by WMAP and from new clustering data from the SLOAN survey. We find that the data strongly constraints a significant positive scale-dependence of $n$, and we translate the analysis into bounds on the physical parameters of the inflaton potential. Looking deeper into sp...

Fast Running Urban Dispersion Model for Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) Releases: Model Description and Validation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gowardhan, Akshay [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Neuscamman, Stephanie [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Donetti, John [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Walker, Hoyt [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Belles, Rich [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Eme, Bill [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Homann, Steven [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Simpson, Matthew [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Nasstrom, John [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC)

2017-05-24

Aeolus is an efficient three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics code based on finite volume method developed for predicting transport and dispersion of contaminants in a complex urban area. It solves the time dependent incompressible Navier-Stokes equation on a regular Cartesian staggered grid using a fractional step method. It also solves a scalar transport equation for temperature and using the Boussinesq approximation. The model also includes a Lagrangian dispersion model for predicting the transport and dispersion of atmospheric contaminants. The model can be run in an efficient Reynolds Average Navier-Stokes (RANS) mode with a run time of several minutes, or a more detailed Large Eddy Simulation (LES) mode with run time of hours for a typical simulation. This report describes the model components, including details on the physics models used in the code, as well as several model validation efforts. Aeolus wind and dispersion predictions are compared to field data from the Joint Urban Field Trials 2003 conducted in Oklahoma City (Allwine et al 2004) including both continuous and instantaneous releases. Newly implemented Aeolus capabilities include a decay chain model and an explosive Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) source term; these capabilities are described. Aeolus predictions using the buoyant explosive RDD source are validated against two experimental data sets: the Green Field explosive cloud rise experiments conducted in Israel (Sharon et al 2012) and the Full-Scale RDD Field Trials conducted in Canada (Green et al 2016).

Hyperion technology enables unified meteorological and radiological monitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zigic, A.; Saponjic, D.; Arandjelovic, V.; Zunic, Z. . E-mail address of corresponding author: alex@vin.bg.ac.yu; Zigic, A.)

2005-01-01

The present state of meteorological and radiological measurement and monitoring are quite localized to smaller areas which implies the difficulties in knowing the measurement results in the wider region instantly. The need for establishing a distributed, flexible, modular and centralized measurement system for both meteorological and radiological parameters of environment is arising. The measurement and monitoring of radiological parameters of environment are not sufficient since there is a strong correlation between radiological and meteorological parameters which implies a unified distributed automatic monitoring system. The unified monitoring system makes it possible to transfer, process and store measured data in local and central databases. Central database gives a possibility of easy access to all measured data for authorized personnel and institutions. Stored measured data in central database gives a new opportunity to create a base for meteorological and radiological modelling and studies. (author)

EnergyPlus Run Time Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hong, Tianzhen; Buhl, Fred; Haves, Philip

2008-09-20

EnergyPlus is a new generation building performance simulation program offering many new modeling capabilities and more accurate performance calculations integrating building components in sub-hourly time steps. However, EnergyPlus runs much slower than the current generation simulation programs. This has become a major barrier to its widespread adoption by the industry. This paper analyzed EnergyPlus run time from comprehensive perspectives to identify key issues and challenges of speeding up EnergyPlus: studying the historical trends of EnergyPlus run time based on the advancement of computers and code improvements to EnergyPlus, comparing EnergyPlus with DOE-2 to understand and quantify the run time differences, identifying key simulation settings and model features that have significant impacts on run time, and performing code profiling to identify which EnergyPlus subroutines consume the most amount of run time. This paper provides recommendations to improve EnergyPlus run time from the modeler?s perspective and adequate computing platforms. Suggestions of software code and architecture changes to improve EnergyPlus run time based on the code profiling results are also discussed.

Meteorological Modeling Using the WRF-ARW Model for Grand Bay Intensive Studies of Atmospheric Mercury

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fong Ngan

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Measurements at the Grand Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve support a range of research activities aimed at improving the understanding of the atmospheric fate and transport of mercury. Routine monitoring was enhanced by two intensive measurement periods conducted at the site in summer 2010 and spring 2011. Detailed meteorological data are required to properly represent the weather conditions, to determine the transport and dispersion of plumes and to understand the wet and dry deposition of mercury. To describe the mesoscale features that might influence future plume calculations for mercury episodes during the Grand Bay Intensive campaigns, fine-resolution meteorological simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model were conducted with various initialization and nudging configurations. The WRF simulations with nudging generated reasonable results in comparison with conventional observations in the region and measurements obtained at the Grand Bay site, including surface and sounding data. The grid nudging, together with observational nudging, had a positive effect on wind prediction. However, the nudging of mass fields (temperature and moisture led to overestimates of precipitation, which may introduce significant inaccuracies if the data were to be used for subsequent atmospheric mercury modeling. The regional flow prediction was also influenced by the reanalysis data used to initialize the WRF simulations. Even with observational nudging, the summer case simulation results in the fine resolution domain inherited features of the reanalysis data, resulting in different regional wind patterns. By contrast, the spring intensive period showed less influence from the reanalysis data.

Running of radiative neutrino masses: the scotogenic model — revisited

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Merle, Alexander; Platscher, Moritz [Max-Planck-Institut für Physik (Werner-Heisenberg-Institut), Föhringer Ring 6, 80805 München (Germany)

2015-11-23

A few years ago, it had been shown that effects stemming from renormalisation group running can be quite large in the scotogenic model, where neutrinos obtain their mass only via a 1-loop diagram (or, more generally, in many models in which the light neutrino mass is generated via quantum corrections at loop-level). We present a new computation of the renormalisation group equations (RGEs) for the scotogenic model, thereby updating previous results. We discuss the matching in detail, in particular in what regards the different mass spectra possible for the new particles involved. We furthermore develop approximate analytical solutions to the RGEs for an extensive list of illustrative cases, covering all general tendencies that can appear in the model. Comparing them with fully numerical solutions, we give a comprehensive discussion of the running in the scotogenic model. Our approach is mainly top-down, but we also discuss an attempt to get information on the values of the fundamental parameters when inputting the low-energy measured quantities in a bottom-up manner. This work serves the basis for a full parameter scan of the model, thereby relating its low- and high-energy phenomenology, to fully exploit the available information.

EARTH, WIND AND FIRE: BUILDING METEOROLOGICALLY-SENSITIVE BIOGENIC AND WILDLAND FIRE EMISSION ESTIMATES FOR AIR QUALITY MODELS

Science.gov (United States)

Emission estimates are important for ensuring the accuracy of atmospheric chemical transport models. Estimates of biogenic and wildland fire emissions, because of their sensitivity to meteorological conditions, need to be carefully constructed and closely linked with a meteorolo...

Modeling for pollution dispersion and air quality. 3.: meteorological data and emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bertagna, Silvia

2005-01-01

To better and correctly choose the suitable modeling system to use, it is necessary previously to define with objective criteria the characteristic of the problem to be studied and to gather together a great amount of input data and information, needed by the model, regarding, namely, the meteorological diffusive conditions of the atmosphere, the characteristic of the emission source (type, number, site etc.) and the characteristic of the area of interest (as land use and orography). In this work, the main different typologies of input data, which occur to simulate the air pollutant dispersion, are described, together with the instruments to obtain them: they include the consultation and the elaboration of information coming from databases and inventories appositely built and often also the use of other models or dedicated SW programs [it

Validation of the SAFRAN meteorological analysis system in the northeast of Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Quintana-Seguí, P.; Salas Pérez, J. J.; Peral, M. C.; Turco, M.; Llasat, M. C.; Martin, E.

2012-04-01

To reliably simulate the continental water balance by means of a land-surface model, it is necessary to have a good quality gridded dataset of screen-level meteorological variables. SAFRAN (Quintana-Seguí et al. 2008 and Vidal et al. 2010) is an atmospheric analysis system, which is based on optimal interpolation over climatically homogeneous zones (areas where spatial gradients of meteorological variables are not very relevant) and is able to reliably take vertical variations into account. SAFRAN is currently operational at Météo-France, as part of the SIM hydrometeorological suite (Habets et al. 2008). SAFRAN was implemented and validated in Northeastern Spain and compared to a similar system, SPAN, which was developed by AEMET, the Spanish Meteorological Service, as part of its contribution to the scientific plans of the NWP European Consortium HIRLAM. SPAN is the surface analysis of the HIRLAM Analysis and Forecasting System, running operationally at AEMET and the rest of HIRLAM countries. This work belongs to our effort to build a distributed hydrological model for this area, similar to SIM (Habets et al., 2008). SAFRAN was implemented and validated using AEMET's current operational meteorological model (HIRLAM-HNR, 5 km of resolution) and data from its climatological and synoptic databases. SAFRAN analyses data every six hours and produces a database over a regular grid of 5km of spatial resolution and at the hourly time step. The period studied covers one year (Sept 2009 - Aug 2010). Firstly it was necessary to test different sets of climatically homogeneous zones. The first set consists on the meteorological alert zones of AEMET. The second one is the European river catchments dataset (ERC), from the European Environmental Agency. We found that, for most variables, the performance is similar using both sets of zones. For all the tested variables (temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and precipitation), SAFRAN and SPAN are able to correctly

Lectures in Micro Meteorology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Søren Ejling

This report contains the notes from my lectures on Micro scale meteorology at the Geophysics Department of the Niels Bohr Institute of Copenhagen University. In the period 1993-2012, I was responsible for this course at the University. At the start of the course, I decided that the text books...... available in meteorology at that time did not include enough of the special flavor of micro meteorology that characterized the work of the meteorology group at Risø (presently of the Institute of wind energy of the Danish Technical University). This work was focused on Boundary layer flows and turbulence...

Option Valuation with Long-run and Short-run Volatility Components

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Ornthanalai, Chayawat

This paper presents a new model for the valuation of European options, in which the volatility of returns consists of two components. One of these components is a long-run component, and it can be modeled as fully persistent. The other component is short-run and has a zero mean. Our model can...... be viewed as an affine version of Engle and Lee (1999), allowing for easy valuation of European options. The model substantially outperforms a benchmark single-component volatility model that is well-established in the literature, and it fits options better than a model that combines conditional...... model long-maturity and short-maturity options....

Meteorological and sulphur dioxide dispersion modelling for an industrial complex near Mexico city metropolitan area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mora, V.R.; Sosa, G.; Molina, M.M.; Palmerin-ruiz, M.E.; Melgarejo-flores, L.E.

2009-01-01

Major sulphur dioxide emissions in Mexico are due largely to fuel of oil refining and coal combustion. In Tula-Vito-Apasco industrial corridor (TVA) are located two important sources of SO/sub 2/: the 'Miguel Hidalgo' refinery and the 'Francisco Perez Rios' power plant. Due to from March 25 to April 22 of 2006 a major field campaign took place as part of a collaborative research program called MILAGRO. Data collected around the Industrial Complex were used to: a) evaluate the air quality to local and regional scale; b) study the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (BL); and c) validate meteorological and dispersion models. In this study we presented the behaviour of daytime BL, and the results of meteorological and dispersion modelling for selected episodes of high sulfur dioxide (SO/sub 2/). The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) and the Hybrid and Particle Concentration Transport Model (HYPACT) were used to evaluate the impact of SO/sub 2/ emissions to regional scale. For modelling, we selected the days where higher mean daily levels of SO/sub 2 /surface concentrations were observed, these corresponded to March 31 and April 6. The results indicate that: The daytime BL in TVA, exhibited a normal behavior, a stable layer or thermal inversion close to surface was observed at 0800 LST (up to 80% of the cases), then the mixing height (MH) growths, with a growth rate of 313 m h-1 (between 0800 to 1200 LST). The most rapid MH growth happened between 1200 to 1500 LST;. The maximum MH was observed at 1500 LST (90% of the cases); the mean maximum MH was close to 2794 m AGL; Potential temperature and humidity profiles showed a normal behavior; High persistence in wind direction (> 0.6) close to surface up to 500 m AGL, was observed at 1500, and 1800 LST, at the same time, a low level jet, penetrating from the NE, with wind speed between 6 to 8 m s/sup -1/ was observed. Meteorological modelling was used to determine the circulation patterns in the region

Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs*

KAUST Repository

Castruccio, Stefano

2014-03-01

The authors describe a new approach for emulating the output of a fully coupled climate model under arbitrary forcing scenarios that is based on a small set of precomputed runs from the model. Temperature and precipitation are expressed as simple functions of the past trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and a statistical model is fit using a limited set of training runs. The approach is demonstrated to be a useful and computationally efficient alternative to pattern scaling and captures the nonlinear evolution of spatial patterns of climate anomalies inherent in transient climates. The approach does as well as pattern scaling in all circumstances and substantially better in many; it is not computationally demanding; and, once the statistical model is fit, it produces emulated climate output effectively instantaneously. It may therefore find wide application in climate impacts assessments and other policy analyses requiring rapid climate projections.

Surface meteorology and Solar Energy

Science.gov (United States)

Stackhouse, Paul W. (Principal Investigator)

The Release 5.1 Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) data contains parameters formulated for assessing and designing renewable energy systems. Parameters fall under 11 categories including: Solar cooking, solar thermal applications, solar geometry, tilted solar panels, energy storage systems, surplus product storage systems, cloud information, temperature, wind, other meteorological factors, and supporting information. This latest release contains new parameters based on recommendations by the renewable energy industry and it is more accurate than previous releases. On-line plotting capabilities allow quick evaluation of potential renewable energy projects for any region of the world. The SSE data set is formulated from NASA satellite- and reanalysis-derived insolation and meteorological data for the 10-year period July 1983 through June 1993. Results are provided for 1 degree latitude by 1 degree longitude grid cells over the globe. Average daily and monthly measurements for 1195 World Radiation Data Centre ground sites are also available. [Mission Objectives] The SSE project contains insolation and meteorology data intended to aid in the development of renewable energy systems. Collaboration between SSE and technology industries such as the Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables ( HOMER ) may aid in designing electric power systems that employ some combination of wind turbines, photovoltaic panels, or diesel generators to produce electricity. [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1983-07-01; Stop_Date=1993-06-30] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180].

Errors and improvements in the use of archived meteorological data for chemical transport modeling: an analysis using GEOS-Chem v11-01 driven by GEOS-5 meteorology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Yu

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Global simulations of atmospheric chemistry are commonly conducted with off-line chemical transport models (CTMs driven by archived meteorological data from general circulation models (GCMs. The off-line approach has the advantages of simplicity and expediency, but it incurs errors due to temporal averaging in the meteorological archive and the inability to reproduce the GCM transport algorithms exactly. The CTM simulation is also often conducted at coarser grid resolution than the parent GCM. Here we investigate this cascade of CTM errors by using 222Rn–210Pb–7Be chemical tracer simulations off-line in the GEOS-Chem CTM at rectilinear 0.25°  ×  0.3125° (≈ 25 km and 2°  ×  2.5° (≈ 200 km resolutions and online in the parent GEOS-5 GCM at cubed-sphere c360 (≈ 25 km and c48 (≈ 200 km horizontal resolutions. The c360 GEOS-5 GCM meteorological archive, updated every 3 h and remapped to 0.25°  ×  0.3125°, is the standard operational product generated by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO and used as input by GEOS-Chem. We find that the GEOS-Chem 222Rn simulation at native 0.25°  ×  0.3125° resolution is affected by vertical transport errors of up to 20 % relative to the GEOS-5 c360 online simulation, in part due to loss of transient organized vertical motions in the GCM (resolved convection that are temporally averaged out in the 3 h meteorological archive. There is also significant error caused by operational remapping of the meteorological archive from a cubed-sphere to a rectilinear grid. Decreasing the GEOS-Chem resolution from 0.25°  ×  0.3125° to 2°  ×  2.5° induces further weakening of vertical transport as transient vertical motions are averaged out spatially and temporally. The resulting 222Rn concentrations simulated by the coarse-resolution GEOS-Chem are overestimated by up to 40 % in surface air relative to the

Reference crop evapotranspiration estimate using high-resolution meteorological network's data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Lussana

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Water management authorities need detailed information about each component of the hydrological balance. This document presents a method to estimate the evapotranspiration rate, initialized in order to obtain the reference crop evapotranspiration rate (ET₀. By using an Optimal Interpolation (OI scheme, the hourly observations of several meteorological variables, measured by a high-resolution local meteorological network, are interpolated over a regular grid. The analysed meteorological fields, containing detailed meteorological information, enter a model for turbulent heat fluxes estimation based on Monin-Obukhov surface layer similarity theory. The obtained ET₀ fields are then post-processed and disseminated to the users.

PREDICTIONS OF DISPERSION AND DEPOSITION OF FALLOUT FROM NUCLEAR TESTING USING THE NOAA-HYSPLIT METEOROLOGICAL MODEL

Science.gov (United States)

Moroz, Brian E.; Beck, Harold L.; Bouville, André; Simon, Steven L.

2013-01-01

The NOAA Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) was evaluated as a research tool to simulate the dispersion and deposition of radioactive fallout from nuclear tests. Model-based estimates of fallout can be valuable for use in the reconstruction of past exposures from nuclear testing, particularly, where little historical fallout monitoring data is available. The ability to make reliable predictions about fallout deposition could also have significant importance for nuclear events in the future. We evaluated the accuracy of the HYSPLIT-predicted geographic patterns of deposition by comparing those predictions against known deposition patterns following specific nuclear tests with an emphasis on nuclear weapons tests conducted in the Marshall Islands. We evaluated the ability of the computer code to quantitatively predict the proportion of fallout particles of specific sizes deposited at specific locations as well as their time of transport. In our simulations of fallout from past nuclear tests, historical meteorological data were used from a reanalysis conducted jointly by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We used a systematic approach in testing the HYSPLIT model by simulating the release of a range of particles sizes from a range of altitudes and evaluating the number and location of particles deposited. Our findings suggest that the quantity and quality of meteorological data are the most important factors for accurate fallout predictions and that when satisfactory meteorological input data are used, HYSPLIT can produce relatively accurate deposition patterns and fallout arrival times. Furthermore, when no other measurement data are available, HYSPLIT can be used to indicate whether or not fallout might have occurred at a given location and provide, at minimum, crude quantitative estimates of the magnitude of the deposited activity. A variety of

New Developments in Wildfire Pollution Forecasting at the Canadian Meteorological Centre

Science.gov (United States)

Pavlovic, Radenko; Chen, Jack; Munoz-Alpizar, Rodrigo; Davignon, Didier; Beaulieu, Paul-Andre; Landry, Hugo; Menard, Sylvain; Gravel, Sylvie; Moran, Michael

2017-04-01

Environment and Climate Change Canada's air quality forecast system with near-real-time wildfire emissions, named FireWork, was developed in 2012 and has been run by the Canadian Meteorological Centre Operations division (CMCO) since 2013. In June 2016 this system was upgraded to operational status and wildfire smoke forecasts for North America are now available to the general public. FireWork's ability to model the transport and diffusion of wildfire smoke plumes has proved to be valuable to regional air quality forecasters and emergency first responders. Some of the most challenging issues with wildfire pollution modelling concern the production of wildfire emission estimates and near-source dispersion within the air quality model. As a consequence, FireWork is undergoing constant development. During the massive Fort McMurray wildfire event in western Canada in May 2016, for example, different wildfire emissions processing approaches and wildfire emissions injection and dispersion schemes were tested within the air quality model. Work on various FireWork components will continue in order to deliver a new operational version of the forecasting system for the 2017 wildfire season. Some of the proposed improvements will be shown in this presentation along with current and planned FireWork post-processing products.

Meteorology observations in the Athabasca oil sands region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-01-01

Meteorological data was collected in the Athabasca oil sands area of Alberta in support of Syncrude' application for approval to develop and operate the Aurora Mine. Meteorology controls the transport and dispersion of gaseous and particulate emissions which are vented into the atmosphere. Several meteorological monitoring stations have been set up in the Fort McMurray and Fort McKay area. The study was part of Suncor's commitment to Alberta Environmental Protection to substantially reduce SO 2 emissions by July 1996. Also, as a condition of approval of the proposed Aurora Mine, the company was required to develop additional ambient air quality, sulphur deposition and biomonitoring programs. Background reports were prepared for: (1) source characterization, (2) ambient air quality observations, (3) meteorology observations, and (4) air quality monitoring. The following factors were incorporated into dispersion modelling: terrain, wind, turbulence, temperature, net radiation and mixing height, relative humidity and precipitation. 15 refs., 9 tabs., 40 figs

Whole-Motion Model of Perception during Forward- and Backward-Facing Centrifuge Runs

Science.gov (United States)

Holly, Jan E.; Vrublevskis, Arturs; Carlson, Lindsay E.

2009-01-01

Illusory perceptions of motion and orientation arise during human centrifuge runs without vision. Asymmetries have been found between acceleration and deceleration, and between forward-facing and backward-facing runs. Perceived roll tilt has been studied extensively during upright fixed-carriage centrifuge runs, and other components have been studied to a lesser extent. Certain, but not all, perceptual asymmetries in acceleration-vs-deceleration and forward-vs-backward motion can be explained by existing analyses. The immediate acceleration-deceleration roll-tilt asymmetry can be explained by the three-dimensional physics of the external stimulus; in addition, longer-term data has been modeled in a standard way using physiological time constants. However, the standard modeling approach is shown in the present research to predict forward-vs-backward-facing symmetry in perceived roll tilt, contradicting experimental data, and to predict perceived sideways motion, rather than forward or backward motion, around a curve. The present work develops a different whole-motion-based model taking into account the three-dimensional form of perceived motion and orientation. This model predicts perceived forward or backward motion around a curve, and predicts additional asymmetries such as the forward-backward difference in roll tilt. This model is based upon many of the same principles as the standard model, but includes an additional concept of familiarity of motions as a whole. PMID:19208962

Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Dreher, Joseph; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian; Van Speybroeck, Kurt

2009-01-01

The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) is responsible for providing meteorological support to state and county emergency management agencies across East Central Florida in the event of incidents involving the significant release of harmful chemicals, radiation, and smoke from fires and/or toxic plumes into the atmosphere. NWS MLB uses the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to provide trajectory, concentration, and deposition guidance during such events. Accurate and timely guidance is critical for decision makers charged with protecting the health and well-being of populations at risk. Information that can describe the geographic extent of areas possibly affected by a hazardous release, as well as to indicate locations of primary concern, offer better opportunity for prompt and decisive action. In addition, forecasters at the NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have expressed interest in using the HYSPLIT model to assist with Weather Flight Rules during Space Shuttle landing operations. In particular, SMG would provide low and mid-level HYSPLIT trajectory forecasts for cumulus clouds associated with smoke plumes, and high-level trajectory forecasts for thunderstorm anvils. Another potential benefit for both NWS MLB and SMG is using the HYSPLIT model concentration and deposition guidance in fog situations.

Pathways to designing and running an operational flood forecasting system: an adventure game!

Science.gov (United States)

Arnal, Louise; Pappenberger, Florian; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Cloke, Hannah; Crochemore, Louise; Giuliani, Matteo; Aalbers, Emma

2017-04-01

In the design and building of an operational flood forecasting system, a large number of decisions have to be taken. These include technical decisions related to the choice of the meteorological forecasts to be used as input to the hydrological model, the choice of the hydrological model itself (its structure and parameters), the selection of a data assimilation procedure to run in real-time, the use (or not) of a post-processor, and the computing environment to run the models and display the outputs. Additionally, a number of trans-disciplinary decisions are also involved in the process, such as the way the needs of the users will be considered in the modelling setup and how the forecasts (and their quality) will be efficiently communicated to ensure usefulness and build confidence in the forecasting system. We propose to reflect on the numerous, alternative pathways to designing and running an operational flood forecasting system through an adventure game. In this game, the player is the protagonist of an interactive story driven by challenges, exploration and problem-solving. For this presentation, you will have a chance to play this game, acting as the leader of a forecasting team at an operational centre. Your role is to manage the actions of your team and make sequential decisions that impact the design and running of the system in preparation to and during a flood event, and that deal with the consequences of the forecasts issued. Your actions are evaluated by how much they cost you in time, money and credibility. Your aim is to take decisions that will ultimately lead to a good balance between time and money spent, while keeping your credibility high over the whole process. This game was designed to highlight the complexities behind decision-making in an operational forecasting and emergency response context, in terms of the variety of pathways that can be selected as well as the timescale, cost and timing of effective actions.

Meteorological Data Visualization in Multi-User Virtual Reality

Science.gov (United States)

Appleton, R.; van Maanen, P. P.; Fisher, W. I.; Krijnen, R.

2017-12-01

Due to their complexity and size, visualization of meteorological data is important. It enables the precise examining and reviewing of meteorological details and is used as a communication tool for reporting, education and to demonstrate the importance of the data to policy makers. Specifically for the UCAR community it is important to explore all of such possibilities.Virtual Reality (VR) technology enhances the visualization of volumetric and dynamical data in a more natural way as compared to a standard desktop, keyboard mouse setup. The use of VR for data visualization is not new but recent developments has made expensive hardware and complex setups unnecessary. The availability of consumer of the shelf VR hardware enabled us to create a very intuitive and low cost way to visualize meteorological data. A VR viewer has been implemented using multiple HTC Vive head sets and allows visualization and analysis of meteorological data in NetCDF format (e.g. of NCEP North America Model (NAM), see figure). Sources of atmospheric/meteorological data include radar and satellite as well as traditional weather stations. The data includes typical meteorological information such as temperature, humidity, air pressure, as well as those data described by the climate forecast (CF) model conventions (http://cfconventions.org). Other data such as lightning-strike data and ultra-high-resolution satellite data are also becoming available. The users can navigate freely around the data which is presented in a virtual room at a scale of up to 3.5 X 3.5 meters. The multiple users can manipulate the model simultaneously. Possible mutations include scaling/translating, filtering by value and using a slicing tool to cut-off specific sections of the data to get a closer look. The slicing can be done in any direction using the concept of a `virtual knife' in real-time. The users can also scoop out parts of the data and walk though successive states of the model. Future plans are (a.o.) to

Estimating water equivalent snow depth from related meteorological variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steyaert, L.T.; LeDuc, S.K.; Strommen, N.D.; Nicodemus, M.L.; Guttman, N.B.

1980-05-01

Engineering design must take into consideration natural loads and stresses caused by meteorological elements, such as, wind, snow, precipitation and temperature. The purpose of this study was to determine a relationship of water equivalent snow depth measurements to meteorological variables. Several predictor models were evaluated for use in estimating water equivalent values. These models include linear regression, principal component regression, and non-linear regression models. Linear, non-linear and Scandanavian models are used to generate annual water equivalent estimates for approximately 1100 cooperative data stations where predictor variables are available, but which have no water equivalent measurements. These estimates are used to develop probability estimates of snow load for each station. Map analyses for 3 probability levels are presented

Short-Run and Long-Run Elasticities of Diesel Demand in Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seung-Hoon Yoo

2012-11-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the demand function for diesel in Korea covering the period 1986–2011. The short-run and long-run elasticities of diesel demand with respect to price and income are empirically examined using a co-integration and error-correction model. The short-run and long-run price elasticities are estimated to be −0.357 and −0.547, respectively. The short-run and long-run income elasticities are computed to be 1.589 and 1.478, respectively. Thus, diesel demand is relatively inelastic to price change and elastic to income change in both the short-run and long-run. Therefore, a demand-side management through raising the price of diesel will be ineffective and tightening the regulation of using diesel more efficiently appears to be more effective in Korea. The demand for diesel is expected to continuously increase as the economy grows.

Statistical methods and regression analysis of stratospheric ozone and meteorological variables in Isfahan

Science.gov (United States)

Hassanzadeh, S.; Hosseinibalam, F.; Omidvari, M.

2008-04-01

Data of seven meteorological variables (relative humidity, wet temperature, dry temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, ground temperature and sun radiation time) and ozone values have been used for statistical analysis. Meteorological variables and ozone values were analyzed using both multiple linear regression and principal component methods. Data for the period 1999-2004 are analyzed jointly using both methods. For all periods, temperature dependent variables were highly correlated, but were all negatively correlated with relative humidity. Multiple regression analysis was used to fit the meteorological variables using the meteorological variables as predictors. A variable selection method based on high loading of varimax rotated principal components was used to obtain subsets of the predictor variables to be included in the linear regression model of the meteorological variables. In 1999, 2001 and 2002 one of the meteorological variables was weakly influenced predominantly by the ozone concentrations. However, the model did not predict that the meteorological variables for the year 2000 were not influenced predominantly by the ozone concentrations that point to variation in sun radiation. This could be due to other factors that were not explicitly considered in this study.

Assessing the impact of local meteorological variables on surface ozone in Hong Kong during 2000-2015 using quantile and multiple line regression models

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Wei; Fan, Shaojia; Guo, Hai; Gao, Bo; Sun, Jiaren; Chen, Laiguo

2016-11-01

The quantile regression (QR) method has been increasingly introduced to atmospheric environmental studies to explore the non-linear relationship between local meteorological conditions and ozone mixing ratios. In this study, we applied QR for the first time, together with multiple linear regression (MLR), to analyze the dominant meteorological parameters influencing the mean, 10th percentile, 90th percentile and 99th percentile of maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in 2000-2015 in Hong Kong. The dominance analysis (DA) was used to assess the relative importance of meteorological variables in the regression models. Results showed that the MLR models worked better at suburban and rural sites than at urban sites, and worked better in winter than in summer. QR models performed better in summer for 99th and 90th percentiles and performed better in autumn and winter for 10th percentile. And QR models also performed better in suburban and rural areas for 10th percentile. The top 3 dominant variables associated with MDA8 ozone concentrations, changing with seasons and regions, were frequently associated with the six meteorological parameters: boundary layer height, humidity, wind direction, surface solar radiation, total cloud cover and sea level pressure. Temperature rarely became a significant variable in any season, which could partly explain the peak of monthly average ozone concentrations in October in Hong Kong. And we found the effect of solar radiation would be enhanced during extremely ozone pollution episodes (i.e., the 99th percentile). Finally, meteorological effects on MDA8 ozone had no significant changes before and after the 2010 Asian Games.

A METEOROLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT METHOD FOR POWER LINES BASED ON GIS AND MULTI-SENSOR INTEGRATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z. Lin

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Power lines, exposed in the natural environment, are vulnerable to various kinds of meteorological factors. Traditional research mainly deals with the influence of a single meteorological condition on the power line, which lacks of comprehensive effects evaluation and analysis of the multiple meteorological factors. In this paper, we use multiple meteorological monitoring data obtained by multi-sensors to implement the meteorological risk assessment and early warning of power lines. Firstly, we generate meteorological raster map from discrete meteorological monitoring data using spatial interpolation. Secondly, the expert scoring based analytic hierarchy process is used to compute the power line risk index of all kinds of meteorological conditions and establish the mathematical model of meteorological risk. By adopting this model in raster calculator of ArcGIS, we will have a raster map showing overall meteorological risks for power line. Finally, by overlaying the power line buffer layer to that raster map, we will get to know the exact risk index around a certain part of power line, which will provide significant guidance for power line risk management. In the experiment, based on five kinds of observation data gathered from meteorological stations in Guizhou Province of China, including wind, lightning, rain, ice, temperature, we carry on the meteorological risk analysis for the real power lines, and experimental results have proved the feasibility and validity of our proposed method.

OFFLINE COUPLING AND VERIFICATION OF THE UNIFIED EMEP MODEL AND WORKETA MODEL

OpenAIRE

Podraščanin, Zorica

2016-01-01

In this paper the offline coupling of the Unified EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) model and WorkETA model was presented. For that purpose the meteorological driver was developed to supply the Unified EMEP model with input data from WorkETA model. To examine the use of the new driver, the Unified EMEP model was run from April to December 2005. The monthly and daily concentration of NO2, SO2 and SO42- obtained by using WorkETA driver was compared to measured values and to th...

Techniques for Improved Retrospective Fine-scale Meteorology

Science.gov (United States)

Pleim-Xiu Land-Surface model (PX LSM) was developed for retrospective meteorological simulations to drive chemical transport models. One of the key features of the PX LSM is the indirect soil moisture and temperature nudging. The idea is to provide a three hourly 2-m temperature ...

Quality Assurance Guidance for the Collection of Meteorological Data Using Passive Radiometers

Science.gov (United States)

This document augments the February 2000 guidance entitled Meteorological Monitoring Guidance for Regulatory Modeling Applications and the March 2008 guidance entitled Quality Assurance Handbook for Air Pollution Measurement Systems Volume IV: Meteorological Measurements Version ...

Analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft exhaust dispersion and deposition using a Lagrangian particle model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pecorari, Eliana, E-mail: eliana.pecorari@unive.it [Department of Environmental Science, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Calle Larga Santa Marta 2137, Dorsoduro, 30123 Venezia (Italy); Mantovani, Alice [OSMOTECH S.r.l., via Francesco Sforza, 15, 20122 Milano (Italy); Franceschini, Chiara [Department of Environmental Science, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Calle Larga Santa Marta 2137, Dorsoduro, 30123 Venezia (Italy); Bassano, Davide [SAVE S.p.A., Marco Polo Venice airport viale G. Galilei 30/1, 30173 Tessera-Venezia (Italy); Palmeri, Luca [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Padova, v. Marzolo 9, 35131 Padova (Italy); Rampazzo, Giancarlo [Department of Environmental Science, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Calle Larga Santa Marta 2137, Dorsoduro, 30123 Venezia (Italy)

2016-01-15

The risk of air quality degradation is of considerable concern particularly for those airports that are located near urban areas. The ability to quantitatively predict the effects of air pollutants originated by airport operations is important for assessing air quality and the related impacts on human health. Current emission regulations have focused on local air quality in the proximity of airports. However, an integrated study should consider the effects of meteorological events, at both regional and local level, that can affect the dispersion and the deposition of exhausts. Rigorous scientific studies and extensive experimental data could contribute to the analysis of the impacts of airports expansion plans. This paper is focused on the analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft emission for the Marco Polo Airport in Venice. This is the most important international airport in the eastern part of the Po’ Valley, one of the most polluted area in Europe. Air pollution is exacerbated by meteorology that is a combination of large and local scale effects that do not allow significant dispersion. Moreover, the airport is located near Venice, a city of noteworthy cultural and architectural relevance, and nearby the lagoon that hosts several areas of outstanding ecological importance at European level (Natura 2000 sites). Dispersion and deposit of the main aircraft exhausts (NOx, HC and CO) have been evaluated by using a Lagrangian particle model. Spatial and temporal aircraft exhaust dispersion has been analyzed for LTO cycle. Aircraft taxiing resulted to be the most impacting aircraft operation especially for the airport working area and its surroundings, however occasionally peaks may be observed even at high altitudes when cruise mode starts. Mixing height can affect concentrations more significantly than the concentrations in the exhausts themselves. An increase of HC and CO concentrations (15–50%) has been observed during specific meteorological events

Analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft exhaust dispersion and deposition using a Lagrangian particle model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pecorari, Eliana; Mantovani, Alice; Franceschini, Chiara; Bassano, Davide; Palmeri, Luca; Rampazzo, Giancarlo

2016-01-01

The risk of air quality degradation is of considerable concern particularly for those airports that are located near urban areas. The ability to quantitatively predict the effects of air pollutants originated by airport operations is important for assessing air quality and the related impacts on human health. Current emission regulations have focused on local air quality in the proximity of airports. However, an integrated study should consider the effects of meteorological events, at both regional and local level, that can affect the dispersion and the deposition of exhausts. Rigorous scientific studies and extensive experimental data could contribute to the analysis of the impacts of airports expansion plans. This paper is focused on the analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft emission for the Marco Polo Airport in Venice. This is the most important international airport in the eastern part of the Po’ Valley, one of the most polluted area in Europe. Air pollution is exacerbated by meteorology that is a combination of large and local scale effects that do not allow significant dispersion. Moreover, the airport is located near Venice, a city of noteworthy cultural and architectural relevance, and nearby the lagoon that hosts several areas of outstanding ecological importance at European level (Natura 2000 sites). Dispersion and deposit of the main aircraft exhausts (NOx, HC and CO) have been evaluated by using a Lagrangian particle model. Spatial and temporal aircraft exhaust dispersion has been analyzed for LTO cycle. Aircraft taxiing resulted to be the most impacting aircraft operation especially for the airport working area and its surroundings, however occasionally peaks may be observed even at high altitudes when cruise mode starts. Mixing height can affect concentrations more significantly than the concentrations in the exhausts themselves. An increase of HC and CO concentrations (15–50%) has been observed during specific meteorological events

The effective Standard Model after LHC Run I

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellis, John; Sanz, Verónica; You, Tevong

2015-01-01

We treat the Standard Model as the low-energy limit of an effective field theory that incorporates higher-dimensional operators to capture the effects of decoupled new physics. We consider the constraints imposed on the coefficients of dimension-6 operators by electroweak precision tests (EWPTs), applying a framework for the effects of dimension-6 operators on electroweak precision tests that is more general than the standard S,T formalism, and use measurements of Higgs couplings and the kinematics of associated Higgs production at the Tevatron and LHC, as well as triple-gauge couplings at the LHC. We highlight the complementarity between EWPTs, Tevatron and LHC measurements in obtaining model-independent limits on the effective Standard Model after LHC Run 1. We illustrate the combined constraints with the example of the two-Higgs doublet model.

The Effective Standard Model after LHC Run I

CERN Document Server

Ellis, John; You, Tevong

2015-01-01

We treat the Standard Model as the low-energy limit of an effective field theory that incorporates higher-dimensional operators to capture the effects of decoupled new physics. We consider the constraints imposed on the coefficients of dimension-6 operators by electroweak precision tests (EWPTs), applying a framework for the effects of dimension-6 operators on electroweak precision tests that is more general than the standard $S,T$ formalism, and use measurements of Higgs couplings and the kinematics of associated Higgs production at the Tevatron and LHC, as well as triple-gauge couplings at the LHC. We highlight the complementarity between EWPTs, Tevatron and LHC measurements in obtaining model-independent limits on the effective Standard Model after LHC Run~1. We illustrate the combined constraints with the example of the two-Higgs doublet model.

New Constraints on the running-mass inflation model

OpenAIRE

Covi, Laura; Lyth, David H.; Melchiorri, Alessandro

2002-01-01

We evaluate new observational constraints on the two-parameter scale-dependent spectral index predicted by the running-mass inflation model by combining the latest Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) anisotropy measurements with the recent 2dFGRS data on the matter power spectrum, with Lyman $\\alpha $ forest data and finally with theoretical constraints on the reionization redshift. We find that present data still allow significant scale-dependence of $n$, which occurs in a physically reasonabl...

The trajectory model tranco as applied to the Chernobyl accident using E.C.M.W.F. meteorological data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zarimpas, N.

1989-01-01

This report presents the TRANCO (trajectory analysis) code and discusses its application to model atmospheric transport during and after the Chernobyl accident. The archived-processed meteorological information from the ECMWF, which is used for the purposes of this study, is also described. Finally, results are discussed and compared with those produced by similar models

Impact of meteorological changes on the incidence of scarlet fever in Hefei City, China

Science.gov (United States)

Duan, Yu; Huang, Xiao-lei; Wang, Yu-jie; Zhang, Jun-qing; Zhang, Qi; Dang, Yue-wen; Wang, Jing

2016-10-01

Studies on scarlet fever with meteorological factors included were few. We aimed to illustrate meteorological factors' effects on monthly incidence of scarlet fever. Cases of scarlet fever were collected from the report of legal infectious disease in Hefei City from 1985 to 2006; the meteorological data were obtained from the weather bureau of Hefei City. Monthly incidence and corresponding meteorological data in these 22 years were used to develop the model. The model of auto regressive integrated moving average with covariates was used in statistical analyses. There was a highest peak from March to June and a small peak from November to January. The incidence of scarlet fever ranges from 0 to 0.71502 (per 105 population). SARIMAX (1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 model was fitted with monthly incidence and meteorological data optimally. It was shown that relative humidity ( β = -0.002, p = 0.020), mean temperature ( β = 0.006, p = 0.004), and 1 month lag minimum temperature ( β = -0.007, p ARIMA model could be useful not only for prediction but also for the analysis of multiple correlations.

Meteorology/Oceanography Help - Naval Oceanography Portal

Science.gov (United States)

section Advanced Search... Sections Home Time Earth Orientation Astronomy Meteorology Oceanography Ice You are here: Home › Help › Meteorology/Oceanography Help USNO Logo USNO Info Meteorology/Oceanography Help Send an e-mail regarding meteorology or oceanography products. Privacy Advisory Your E-Mail

Uncertainty Quantification given Discontinuous Climate Model Response and a Limited Number of Model Runs

Science.gov (United States)

Sargsyan, K.; Safta, C.; Debusschere, B.; Najm, H.

2010-12-01

Uncertainty quantification in complex climate models is challenged by the sparsity of available climate model predictions due to the high computational cost of model runs. Another feature that prevents classical uncertainty analysis from being readily applicable is bifurcative behavior in climate model response with respect to certain input parameters. A typical example is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The predicted maximum overturning stream function exhibits discontinuity across a curve in the space of two uncertain parameters, namely climate sensitivity and CO2 forcing. We outline a methodology for uncertainty quantification given discontinuous model response and a limited number of model runs. Our approach is two-fold. First we detect the discontinuity with Bayesian inference, thus obtaining a probabilistic representation of the discontinuity curve shape and location for arbitrarily distributed input parameter values. Then, we construct spectral representations of uncertainty, using Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansions on either side of the discontinuity curve, leading to an averaged-PC representation of the forward model that allows efficient uncertainty quantification. The approach is enabled by a Rosenblatt transformation that maps each side of the discontinuity to regular domains where desirable orthogonality properties for the spectral bases hold. We obtain PC modes by either orthogonal projection or Bayesian inference, and argue for a hybrid approach that targets a balance between the accuracy provided by the orthogonal projection and the flexibility provided by the Bayesian inference - where the latter allows obtaining reasonable expansions without extra forward model runs. The model output, and its associated uncertainty at specific design points, are then computed by taking an ensemble average over PC expansions corresponding to possible realizations of the discontinuity curve. The methodology is tested on synthetic examples of

Machine learning methods reveal the temporal pattern of dengue incidence using meteorological factors in metropolitan Manila, Philippines.

Science.gov (United States)

Carvajal, Thaddeus M; Viacrusis, Katherine M; Hernandez, Lara Fides T; Ho, Howell T; Amalin, Divina M; Watanabe, Kozo

2018-04-17

Several studies have applied ecological factors such as meteorological variables to develop models and accurately predict the temporal pattern of dengue incidence or occurrence. With the vast amount of studies that investigated this premise, the modeling approaches differ from each study and only use a single statistical technique. It raises the question of whether which technique would be robust and reliable. Hence, our study aims to compare the predictive accuracy of the temporal pattern of Dengue incidence in Metropolitan Manila as influenced by meteorological factors from four modeling techniques, (a) General Additive Modeling, (b) Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with exogenous variables (c) Random Forest and (d) Gradient Boosting. Dengue incidence and meteorological data (flood, precipitation, temperature, southern oscillation index, relative humidity, wind speed and direction) of Metropolitan Manila from January 1, 2009 - December 31, 2013 were obtained from respective government agencies. Two types of datasets were used in the analysis; observed meteorological factors (MF) and its corresponding delayed or lagged effect (LG). After which, these datasets were subjected to the four modeling techniques. The predictive accuracy and variable importance of each modeling technique were calculated and evaluated. Among the statistical modeling techniques, Random Forest showed the best predictive accuracy. Moreover, the delayed or lag effects of the meteorological variables was shown to be the best dataset to use for such purpose. Thus, the model of Random Forest with delayed meteorological effects (RF-LG) was deemed the best among all assessed models. Relative humidity was shown to be the top-most important meteorological factor in the best model. The study exhibited that there are indeed different predictive outcomes generated from each statistical modeling technique and it further revealed that the Random forest model with delayed meteorological

New constraints on the running-mass inflation model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Covi, L.; Lyth, D.H.; Melchiorri, A.

2002-10-01

We evaluate new observational constraints on the two-parameter scale-dependent spectral index predicted by the running-mass inflation model by combining the latest cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy measurements with the recent 2dFGRS data on the matter power spectrum, with Lyman α forest data and finally with theoretical constraints on the reionization redshift. We find that present data still allow significant scale-dependence of n, which occurs in a physically reasonable regime of parameter space. (orig.)

The ATLAS Tau Trigger Performance during LHC Run 1 and Prospects for Run 2

CERN Document Server

Mitani, T; The ATLAS collaboration

2016-01-01

The ATLAS tau trigger is designed to select hadronic decays of the tau leptons. Tau lepton plays an important role in Standard Model (SM) physics, such as in Higgs boson decays. Tau lepton is also important in beyond the SM (BSM) scenarios, such as supersymmetry and exotic particles, as they are often produced preferentially in these models. During the 2010-2012 LHC run (Run1), the tau trigger was accomplished successfully, which leads several rewarding results such as evidence for $H\\rightarrow \\tau\\tau$. From the 2015 LHC run (Run2), LHC will be upgraded and overlapping interactions per bunch crossing (pile-up) are expected to increase by a factor two. It will be challenging to control trigger rates while keeping interesting physics events. This paper summarized the tau trigger performance in Run1 and its prospects for Run2.

Hydrological and meteorological aspects of floods in the Alps: an overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baldassare Bacchi

2003-01-01

Full Text Available This introductory paper presents and summarises recent research on meteorological and hydrological aspects of floods in the Alps. The research activities were part of the international research project RAPHAEL (Runoff and Atmospheric Processes for flood HAzard forEcasting and controL together with experiments within the Special Observing Period-SOP conducted in autumn 1999 for the Mesoscale Alpine Programme —MAP. The investigations were based on both field experiments and numerical simulations, using meteorological and hydrological models, of ten major floods that occurred in the past decade in the European Alps. The two basins investigated were the Ticino (6599 km2 at the Lago Maggiore outlet on the southern side of the Alps and the Ammer catchment (709 km2 in the Bavarian Alps. These catchments and their sub-catchments cover an appropriate range of spatial scales with which to investigate and test in an operational context the potential of both mesoscale meteorological and distributed hydrological models for flood forecasting. From the data analyses and model simulations described in this Special Issue, the major sources of uncertainties for flood forecasts in mid-size mountain basins are outlined and the accuracy flood forecasts is assessed. Keywords: floods, mountain hydrology, meteorological models, Alps

Meteorology and atomic energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1986-01-01

The science of meteorology is useful in providing information that will be of assistance in the choice of favorable plant locations and in the evaluation of significant relations between meteorology and the design, construction, and operation of plant and facilities, especially those from which radioactive or toxic products could be released to the atmosphere. Under a continuing contract with the Atomic Energy Commission, the Weather Bureau has carried out this study. Some of the meteorological techniques that are available are summarized, and their applications to the possible atmospheric pollution deriving from the use of atomic energy are described. Methods and suggestions for the collection, analysis, and use of meteorological data are presented. Separate abstracts are included of 12 chapters in this publication for inclusion in the Energy Data Base

Giving students the run of sprinting models

Science.gov (United States)

Heck, André; Ellermeijer, Ton

2009-11-01

A biomechanical study of sprinting is an interesting task for students who have a background in mechanics and calculus. These students can work with real data and do practical investigations similar to the way sports scientists do research. Student research activities are viable when the students are familiar with tools to collect and work with data from sensors and video recordings and with modeling tools for comparing simulation and experimental results. This article describes a multipurpose system, named COACH, that offers a versatile integrated set of tools for learning, doing, and teaching mathematics and science in a computer-based inquiry approach. Automated tracking of reference points and correction of perspective distortion in videos, state-of-the-art algorithms for data smoothing and numerical differentiation, and graphical system dynamics based modeling are some of the built-in techniques that are suitable for motion analysis. Their implementation and their application in student activities involving models of running are discussed.

Meteorology and Wind Energy Department annual report 1996

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hauge Madsen, P.; Dannemand Andersen, P.; Skrumsager, B. [eds.

1997-07-01

In 1996 the Meteorology and Wind Energy Department has performed research within the programme areas: (1) wind energy and (2) atmospheric processes. The objectives are through research in boundary layer meteorology, fluid dynamics, aerodynamics and structural mechanics to contribute with new knowledge within (1) wind energy in relation to development, manufacturing, operation and export as well as testing and certification of wind turbines, and (2) aspects of boundary-layer meteorology related to environmental and energy problems of society. The work is supported by the research programs of the Ministry of Environment and Energy, the Nordic Council of Ministers, EU as well as by industry. Through our research and development work we develop and provide methodologies including computer models for use by industry, institutions, and governmental authorities. In the long view we are developing facilities and programs enabling us to serve as a national and European centre for wind-energy and boundary-layer meteorological research. A summary of our activities in 1996 is presented. (au) 4 tabs., 5 ills.

Droning on about the Weather: Meteorological Science on a School-Friendly Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Murphy, Phil; O'Neill, Ashley; Brown, Abby

2016-01-01

Meteorology is an important branch of science that offers exciting career opportunities and yet is not usually included in school curricula. The availability of multi-rotor model aircraft (drones) offers an exciting opportunity to bring meteorology into school science.

Meteorological instrumentation for nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Costa, A.C.L. da.

1983-01-01

The main requirements of regulatory agencies, concerning the meteorological instrumentation needed for the licensing of nuclear facilities are discussed. A description is made of the operational principles of sensors for the various meteorological parameters and associated electronic systems. An analysis of the problems associated with grounding of a typical meteorological station is presented. (Author) [pt

Ensemble and Bias-Correction Techniques for Air-Quality Model Forecasts of Surface O3 and PM2.5 during the TEXAQS-II Experiment of 2006

Science.gov (United States)

Several air quality forecasting ensembles were created from seven models, running in real-time during the 2006 Texas Air Quality (TEXAQS-II) experiment. These multi-model ensembles incorporated a diverse set of meteorological models, chemical mechanisms, and emission inventories...

Assembling Typical Meteorological Year Data Sets for Building Energy Performance Using Reanalysis and Satellite-Based Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Huld

2018-02-01

Full Text Available We present a method to generate Typical Meteorological Year (TMY data sets for use in calculations of the energy performance of buildings, based on satellite derived solar radiation data and other meteorological parameters obtained from reanalysis products. The great advantage of this method is the availability of data over large geographical regions, giving global coverage for the reanalysis and continental-scale coverage for the solar radiation data, making it possible to generate TMY data for nearly any location, independent of the availability of meteorological measurement stations in the area. The TMY data generated with this method have been validated against 487 meteorological stations in Europe, by calculating heating and cooling degree days, and by running building energy performance simulations using EnergyPlus. Results show that the generated data sets using a long time series perform better than the TMY data generated from station measurements for building heating calculations and nearly as well for cooling calculations, with relative standard deviations remaining below 6% for heating calculations. TMY data constructed using the proposed method yield somewhat larger deviations compared to TMY data constructed from station data. We outline a number of possibilities for further improvement using data sets that will become available in the near future.

A study of the dengue epidemic and meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China, by using a zero-inflated Poisson regression model.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chenggang; Jiang, Baofa; Fan, Jingchun; Wang, Furong; Liu, Qiyong

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is to develop a model that correctly identifies and quantifies the relationship between dengue and meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China. By cross-correlation analysis, meteorological variables and their lag effects were determined. According to the epidemic characteristics of dengue in Guangzhou, those statistically significant variables were modeled by a zero-inflated Poisson regression model. The number of dengue cases and minimum temperature at 1-month lag, along with average relative humidity at 0- to 1-month lag were all positively correlated with the prevalence of dengue fever, whereas wind velocity and temperature in the same month along with rainfall at 2 months' lag showed negative association with dengue incidence. Minimum temperature at 1-month lag and wind velocity in the same month had a greater impact on the dengue epidemic than other variables in Guangzhou.

Modeling the contributions of emission, meteorology, and chemistry to high PM2.5 levels over China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Y.; Zhang, Q.; Jia, B.; Jiang, J.; Zhou, W.; Wang, B.

2014-12-01

PM2.5 is known to harm health and public welfare. In recent years, regional haze with PM2.5 levels exceeding ten folds of WHO's air quality guideline has become the largest air quality concern in China. To better protect the health of millions of people, the key question is whether we understand the formation mechanism of high PM2.5 episodes well enough to guide the formation of effective control strategies. Here we present a modeling analysis in conjunction of observational constraints to estimate the contribution of emissions, meteorology, and secondary chemical formation to changes in PM2.5 levels over China. Certain meteorological conditions are found particularly conducive to trigger fast increases of secondary PM under current emissions mixtures in China. While the nested-grid GEOS-Chem model reproduces the distribution of PM2.5 and simulates up to ~400 μg/m3 of daily maximum PM2.5, it fails to capture the large sulfate enhancement during haze. We propose heterogeneous oxidation of SO2 on deliquesced aerosols as an additional source of sulfate under high relative humidity conditions. Parameterizing this process in the model improves the simulated spatial distribution and results in significant increases of sulfate enhancement ratio and sulfate fraction in PM2.5 during haze episodes. Implications of our modeling analysis for PM2.5 pollution control policies will also be discussed.

Meteorological instrumentation for nuclear installations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Costa, A.C.L. da.

1983-01-01

The main requirements of regulatory agencies, concerning the meteorological instrumentation needed for the licensing of nuclear facilities are discussed. A description is made of the operational principles of sensors for the various meteorological parameters and associated electronic systems. Finally, it is presented an analysis of the problems associated with grounding of a typical meteorological station. (Author) [pt

Meteorological radar services: a brief discussion and a solution in practice

Science.gov (United States)

Nicolaides, K. A.

2014-08-01

The Department of Meteorology is the organization designated by the Civil Aviation Department and by the National Supervisory Authority of the Republic of Cyprus, as an air navigation service provider, based on the regulations of the Single European Sky. Department of Meteorology holds and maintains also an ISO: 9001/2008, Quality System, for the provision of meteorological and climatological services to aeronautic and maritime community, but also to the general public. In order to fulfill its obligations the Department of Meteorology customs the rather dense meteorological stations network, with long historical data series, installed and maintained by the Department, in parallel with modelling and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), along with training and gaining of expertise. Among the available instruments in the community of meteorologists is the meteorological radar, a basic tool for the needs of very short/short range forecasting (nowcasting). The Department of Meteorology installed in the mid 90's a C-band radar over «Throni» location and expanded its horizons in nowcasting, aviation safety and warnings issuance. The radar has undergone several upgrades but today technology has over passed its rather old technology. At the present the Department of Meteorology is in the process of buying Meteorological Radar Services as a result of a public procurement procedure. Two networked X-band meteorological radar will be installed (the project now is in the phase of infrastructure establishment while the hardware is in the process of assemble), and maintained from Space Hellas (the contractor) for a 13 years' time period. The present article must be faced as a review article of the efforts of the Department of Meteorology to support its weather forecasters with data from meteorological radar.

Integration of Ground, Buoys, Satellite and Model data to map the Changes in Meteorological Parameters Associated with Harvey Hurricane

Science.gov (United States)

Chauhan, A.; Sarkar, S.; Singh, R. P.

2017-12-01

The coastal areas have dense onshore and marine observation network and are also routinely monitored by constellation of satellites. The monitoring of ocean, land and atmosphere through a range of meteorological parameters, provides information about the land and ocean surface. Satellite data also provide information at different pressure levels that help to access the development of tropical storms and formation of hurricanes at different categories. Integration of ground, buoys, satellite and model data showing the changes in meteorological parameters during the landfall stages of hurricane Harvey will be discussed. Hurricane Harvey was one of the deadliest hurricanes at the Gulf coast which caused intense flooding from the precipitation. The various observation networks helped city administrators to evacuate the coastal areas, that minimized the loss of lives compared to the Galveston hurricane of 1900 which took 10,000 lives. Comparison of meteorological parameters derived from buoys, ground stations and satellites associated with Harvey and 2005 Katrina hurricane present some of the interesting features of the two hurricanes.

Space based inverse modeling of seasonal variations of anthropogenic and natural emissions of nitrogen oxides over China and effects of uncertainties in model meteorology and chemistry

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, J.

2011-12-01

Nitrogen oxides (NOx ≡ NO + NO2) are important atmospheric constituents affecting the tropospheric chemistry, surface air quality and climatic forcing. They are emitted both from anthropogenic and from natural (soil, lightning, biomass burning, etc.) sources, which can be estimated inversely from satellite remote sensing of the vertical column densities (VCDs) of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in the troposphere. Based on VCDs of NO2 retrieved from OMI, a novel approach is developed in this study to separate anthropogenic emissions of NOx from natural sources over East China for 2006. It exploits the fact that anthropogenic and natural emissions vary with seasons with distinctive patterns. The global chemical transport model (CTM) GEOS-Chem is used to establish the relationship between VCDs of NO2 and emissions of NOx for individual sources. Derived soil emissions are compared to results from a newly developed bottom-up approach. Effects of uncertainties in model meteorology and chemistry over China, an important source of errors in the emission inversion, are evaluated systematically for the first time. Meteorological measurements from space and the ground are used to analyze errors in meteorological parameters driving the CTM.

Numerical simulation of a meteorological regime of Pontic region

Science.gov (United States)

Toropov, P.; Silvestrova, K.

2012-04-01

The Black Sea Coast of Caucasus is one of priority in sense of meteorological researches. It is caused both strategic and economic importance of coast, and current development of an infrastructure for the winter Olympic Games «Sochi-2014». During the winter period at the Black Sea Coast of Caucasus often there are the synoptic conditions leading to occurrence of the dangerous phenomena of weather: «northeast», ice-storms, strong rains, etc. The Department of Meteorology (Moscow State University) throughout 8 years spends regular measurements on the basis of Southern Department of Institute of Oenology of the Russian Academy of Sciences in July and February. They include automatically measurements with the time resolution of 5 minutes in three points characterizing landscape or region (coast, steppe plain, top of the Markothsky ridge), measurements of flux of solar radiation, measurements an atmospheric precipitation in 8 points, which remoteness from each other - 2-3 km. The saved up material has allowed to reveal some features of a meteorological mode of coast. But an overall objective of measurements - an estimation of quality of the numerical forecast by means of «meso scale» models (for example - model WRF). The first of numerical experiments by WRF model were leaded in 2007 year and were devoted reproduction of a meteorological mode of the Black Sea coast. The second phase of experiments has been directed on reproduction the storm phenomena (Novorossiysk nord-ost). For estimation of the modeling data was choused area witch limited by coordinates 44,1 - 44,75 (latitude) and 37,6 - 39 (longitude). Estimations are spent for the basic meteorological parameters - for pressure, temperature, speed of a wind. As earlier it was marked, 8 meteorological stations are located in this territory. Their values are accepted for the standard. Errors are calculated for February 2005, 2006, 2008, 2011 years, because in these periods was marked a strong winds. As the

Pantex Plant meteorological monitoring program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Snyder, S.F.

1993-07-01

The current meteorological monitoring program of the US Department of Energy's Pantex Plant, Amarillo, Texas, is described in detail. Instrumentation, meteorological data collection and management, and program management are reviewed. In addition, primary contacts are noted for instrumentation, calibration, data processing, and alternative databases. The quality assurance steps implemented during each portion of the meteorological monitoring program are also indicated

Evaluation of meteorological fields generated by a prognostic mesoscale model using data collected during the 1993 GMAQS/COAST field study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lolk, N.K.; Douglas, S.G.

1996-01-01

In 1993, the US Interior Department's Minerals Management Service (MMS) sponsored the Gulf of Mexico Air Quality Study (GMAQS). Its purpose was to assess potential impacts of offshore petrochemical development on ozone concentrations in nonattainment areas in the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast region as mandated by the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. The GMAQS comprised data collection, data analysis, and applications of an advanced photochemical air quality model, the variable-grid Urban Airshed Model (UAM-V), and a prognostic mesoscale meteorological model (SAIMM -- Systems Applications International Mesoscale Model) to simulate two ozone episodes that were captured during the summer field study. The primary purpose of this paper is to evaluate the SAIMM-simulated meteorological fields using graphical analysis that utilize the comprehensive GMAQS/COAST (Gulf of Mexico Air Quality Study/Coastal Oxidant Assessment for Southeast Texas) database and to demonstrate the ability of the SAIMM to simulate the day-to-day variations in the evolution and structure of the gulf breeze and the mixed layer

Large-scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation Events over Portland, OR

Science.gov (United States)

Aragon, C.; Loikith, P. C.; Lintner, B. R.; Pike, M.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events can have profound impacts on human life and infrastructure, with broad implications across a range of stakeholders. Changes to extreme precipitation events are a projected outcome of climate change that warrants further study, especially at regional- to local-scales. While global climate models are generally capable of simulating mean climate at global-to-regional scales with reasonable skill, resiliency and adaptation decisions are made at local-scales where most state-of-the-art climate models are limited by coarse resolution. Characterization of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events at local-scales can provide climatic information without this scale limitation, thus facilitating stakeholder decision-making. This research will use synoptic climatology as a tool by which to characterize the key large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events in the Portland, Oregon metro region. Composite analysis of meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation days, and associated watershed-specific flooding, is employed to enhance understanding of the climatic drivers behind such events. The self-organizing maps approach is then used to characterize the within-composite variability of the large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events, allowing us to better understand the different types of meteorological conditions that lead to high-impact precipitation events and associated hydrologic impacts. A more comprehensive understanding of the meteorological drivers of extremes will aid in evaluation of the ability of climate models to capture key patterns associated with extreme precipitation over Portland and to better interpret projections of future climate at impact-relevant scales.

Meteorological Drivers of Extreme Air Pollution Events

Science.gov (United States)

Horton, D. E.; Schnell, J.; Callahan, C. W.; Suo, Y.

2017-12-01

The accumulation of pollutants in the near-surface atmosphere has been shown to have deleterious consequences for public health, agricultural productivity, and economic vitality. Natural and anthropogenic emissions of ozone and particulate matter can accumulate to hazardous concentrations when atmospheric conditions are favorable, and can reach extreme levels when such conditions persist. Favorable atmospheric conditions for pollutant accumulation include optimal temperatures for photochemical reaction rates, circulation patterns conducive to pollutant advection, and a lack of ventilation, dispersion, and scavenging in the local environment. Given our changing climate system and the dual ingredients of poor air quality - pollutants and the atmospheric conditions favorable to their accumulation - it is important to characterize recent changes in favorable meteorological conditions, and quantify their potential contribution to recent extreme air pollution events. To facilitate our characterization, this study employs the recently updated Schnell et al (2015) 1°×1° gridded observed surface ozone and particulate matter datasets for the period of 1998 to 2015, in conjunction with reanalysis and climate model simulation data. We identify extreme air pollution episodes in the observational record and assess the meteorological factors of primary support at local and synoptic scales. We then assess (i) the contribution of observed meteorological trends (if extant) to the magnitude of the event, (ii) the return interval of the meteorological event in the observational record, simulated historical climate, and simulated pre-industrial climate, as well as (iii) the probability of the observed meteorological trend in historical and pre-industrial climates.

Ecological and meteorological drought monitoring in East Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, J. B.; Um, M. J.; Kim, Y.; Chae, Y.

2016-12-01

This study aims to how well the ecological drought index can capture the drought status in the East Asia. We estimated the drought severe index (DSI), which uses the evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), suggested by Mu et al. (2013) to define the ecological drought. In addition, the meteorological drought index, which is standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI), are estimated and compared to the DSI. The satellite data by moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) are used to analyze the DSI and the monthly precipitation and temperature data in the climate research unit (CRU) are applied to estimate the SPEI for 2000-2013 in the East Asia. We conducted the statistical analyses to investigate the drought characteristics of the ecological and meteorological drought indices (i.e. the DSI and SPEI, respectively) and then compared those characteristics drought indices depending on the drought status. We found the DSI did not well captured the drought status when the categories originally suggested by Mu et al. (2013) are applied to divide the drought status in the study area. Consequently, the modified categories for the DSI in this study is suggested and then applied to define the drought status. The modified categories in this study show the great improvement to capture the drought status in the East Asia even though the results cannot be acquired around Taklamakan desert due to the lack of the satellite data. These results illustrate the ecological drought index, such as the DSI, can be applied for the monitoring of the drought in the East Asia and then can give the detailed information of drought status because the satellite data have the relatively high spatial resolutions compared to the observations such as the CRU data. Reference Mu Q, Zhao M, Kimball JS, McDowell NG, Running SW (2013) A remotely sensed global

Making the Introductory Meteorology Class Relevant in a Minority Serving Community College

Science.gov (United States)

Marchese, P. J.; Tremberger, G.; Bluestone, C.

2008-12-01

Queensborough Community College (QCC), a constituent campus of the City University of New York (CUNY), has modified the introductory Meteorology Class lecture and lab to include active learning activities and discovery based learning. The modules were developed at QCC and other 4 year colleges and designed to introduce basic physical concepts important in meteorology. The modules consisted of either interactive lecture demonstrations or discovery-based activities. The discovery based activities are intended to have students become familiar with scientific investigation. Students engage in formulating hypotheses, developing and carrying out experiments, and analyzing scientific data. These activities differ from traditional lab experiments in that they avoid "cookbook" procedures and emphasize having the students learn about physical concepts by applying the scientific method. During the interactive lecture demonstrations the instructor describes an experiment/phenomenon that is to be demonstrated in class. Students discuss the phenomenon based on their experiences and make a prediction about the outcome. The class then runs the experiment, makes observations, and compares the expected results to the actual outcome. As a result of these activities students in the introductory Meteorology class scored higher in exams questions measuring conceptual understanding, as well as factual knowledge. Lower scoring students demonstrated the greatest benefit, while the better students had little (or no) changes. All students also had higher self-efficacy scores after the intervention, compared to an unmodified class.

Sensitivity of surface meteorological analyses to observation networks

Science.gov (United States)

Tyndall, Daniel Paul

A computationally efficient variational analysis system for two-dimensional meteorological fields is developed and described. This analysis approach is most efficient when the number of analysis grid points is much larger than the number of available observations, such as for large domain mesoscale analyses. The analysis system is developed using MATLAB software and can take advantage of multiple processors or processor cores. A version of the analysis system has been exported as a platform independent application (i.e., can be run on Windows, Linux, or Macintosh OS X desktop computers without a MATLAB license) with input/output operations handled by commonly available internet software combined with data archives at the University of Utah. The impact of observation networks on the meteorological analyses is assessed by utilizing a percentile ranking of individual observation sensitivity and impact, which is computed by using the adjoint of the variational surface assimilation system. This methodology is demonstrated using a case study of the analysis from 1400 UTC 27 October 2010 over the entire contiguous United States domain. The sensitivity of this approach to the dependence of the background error covariance on observation density is examined. Observation sensitivity and impact provide insight on the influence of observations from heterogeneous observing networks as well as serve as objective metrics for quality control procedures that may help to identify stations with significant siting, reporting, or representativeness issues.

Climate and meteorology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoitink, D.J.

1995-06-01

This section of the 1994 Hanford Site Environmental Report summarizes the significant activities conducted in 1994 to monitor the meteorology and climatology of the site. Meteorological measurements are taken to support Hanford Site emergency preparedness and response, Hanford Site operations, and atmospheric dispersion calculations. Climatological data are collected to help plan weather-dependent activities and are used as a resource to assess the environmental effects of Hanford Site operations.

Climate and meteorology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoitink, D.J.

1995-01-01

This section of the 1994 Hanford Site Environmental Report summarizes the significant activities conducted in 1994 to monitor the meteorology and climatology of the site. Meteorological measurements are taken to support Hanford Site emergency preparedness and response, Hanford Site operations, and atmospheric dispersion calculations. Climatological data are collected to help plan weather-dependent activities and are used as a resource to assess the environmental effects of Hanford Site operations

Nonhydrostatic and surfbeat model predictions of extreme wave run-up in fringing reef environments

Science.gov (United States)

Lashley, Christopher H.; Roelvink, Dano; van Dongeren, Ap R.; Buckley, Mark L.; Lowe, Ryan J.

2018-01-01

The accurate prediction of extreme wave run-up is important for effective coastal engineering design and coastal hazard management. While run-up processes on open sandy coasts have been reasonably well-studied, very few studies have focused on understanding and predicting wave run-up at coral reef-fronted coastlines. This paper applies the short-wave resolving, Nonhydrostatic (XB-NH) and short-wave averaged, Surfbeat (XB-SB) modes of the XBeach numerical model to validate run-up using data from two 1D (alongshore uniform) fringing-reef profiles without roughness elements, with two objectives: i) to provide insight into the physical processes governing run-up in such environments; and ii) to evaluate the performance of both modes in accurately predicting run-up over a wide range of conditions. XBeach was calibrated by optimizing the maximum wave steepness parameter (maxbrsteep) in XB-NH and the dissipation coefficient (alpha) in XB-SB) using the first dataset; and then applied to the second dataset for validation. XB-NH and XB-SB predictions of extreme wave run-up (Rmax and R2%) and its components, infragravity- and sea-swell band swash (SIG and SSS) and shoreline setup (), were compared to observations. XB-NH more accurately simulated wave transformation but under-predicted shoreline setup due to its exclusion of parameterized wave-roller dynamics. XB-SB under-predicted sea-swell band swash but overestimated shoreline setup due to an over-prediction of wave heights on the reef flat. Run-up (swash) spectra were dominated by infragravity motions, allowing the short-wave (but not wave group) averaged model (XB-SB) to perform comparably well to its more complete, short-wave resolving (XB-NH) counterpart. Despite their respective limitations, both modes were able to accurately predict Rmax and R2%.

Simulating run-up on steep slopes with operational Boussinesq models; capabilities, spurious effects and instabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Løvholt

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Tsunamis induced by rock slides plunging into fjords constitute a severe threat to local coastal communities. The rock slide impact may give rise to highly non-linear waves in the near field, and because the wave lengths are relatively short, frequency dispersion comes into play. Fjord systems are rugged with steep slopes, and modeling non-linear dispersive waves in this environment with simultaneous run-up is demanding. We have run an operational Boussinesq-type TVD (total variation diminishing model using different run-up formulations. Two different tests are considered, inundation on steep slopes and propagation in a trapezoidal channel. In addition, a set of Lagrangian models serves as reference models. Demanding test cases with solitary waves with amplitudes ranging from 0.1 to 0.5 were applied, and slopes were ranging from 10 to 50°. Different run-up formulations yielded clearly different accuracy and stability, and only some provided similar accuracy as the reference models. The test cases revealed that the model was prone to instabilities for large non-linearity and fine resolution. Some of the instabilities were linked with false breaking during the first positive inundation, which was not observed for the reference models. None of the models were able to handle the bore forming during drawdown, however. The instabilities are linked to short-crested undulations on the grid scale, and appear on fine resolution during inundation. As a consequence, convergence was not always obtained. It is reason to believe that the instability may be a general problem for Boussinesq models in fjords.

Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs*

KAUST Repository

Castruccio, Stefano; McInerney, David J.; Stein, Michael L.; Liu Crouch, Feifei; Jacob, Robert L.; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

2014-01-01

functions of the past trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and a statistical model is fit using a limited set of training runs. The approach is demonstrated to be a useful and computationally efficient alternative to pattern scaling and captures

Linear Multivariable Regression Models for Prediction of Eddy Dissipation Rate from Available Meteorological Data

Science.gov (United States)

MCKissick, Burnell T. (Technical Monitor); Plassman, Gerald E.; Mall, Gerald H.; Quagliano, John R.

2005-01-01

Linear multivariable regression models for predicting day and night Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) from available meteorological data sources are defined and validated. Model definition is based on a combination of 1997-2000 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) data sources, EDR from Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) deployment data, and regression variables primarily from corresponding Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) data. Model validation is accomplished through EDR predictions on a similar combination of 1994-1995 Memphis (MEM) AVOSS and ASOS data. Model forms include an intercept plus a single term of fixed optimal power for each of these regression variables; 30-minute forward averaged mean and variance of near-surface wind speed and temperature, variance of wind direction, and a discrete cloud cover metric. Distinct day and night models, regressing on EDR and the natural log of EDR respectively, yield best performance and avoid model discontinuity over day/night data boundaries.

On the predictability of land surface fluxes from meteorological variables

Science.gov (United States)

Haughton, Ned; Abramowitz, Gab; Pitman, Andy J.

2018-01-01

Previous research has shown that land surface models (LSMs) are performing poorly when compared with relatively simple empirical models over a wide range of metrics and environments. Atmospheric driving data appear to provide information about land surface fluxes that LSMs are not fully utilising. Here, we further quantify the information available in the meteorological forcing data that are used by LSMs for predicting land surface fluxes, by interrogating FLUXNET data, and extending the benchmarking methodology used in previous experiments. We show that substantial performance improvement is possible for empirical models using meteorological data alone, with no explicit vegetation or soil properties, thus setting lower bounds on a priori expectations on LSM performance. The process also identifies key meteorological variables that provide predictive power. We provide an ensemble of empirical benchmarks that are simple to reproduce and provide a range of behaviours and predictive performance, acting as a baseline benchmark set for future studies. We reanalyse previously published LSM simulations and show that there is more diversity between LSMs than previously indicated, although it remains unclear why LSMs are broadly performing so much worse than simple empirical models.

3D Exploration of Meteorological Data: Facing the challenges of operational forecasters

Science.gov (United States)

Koutek, Michal; Debie, Frans; van der Neut, Ian

2016-04-01

In the past years the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) has been working on innovation in the field of meteorological data visualization. We are dealing with Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model data and observational data, i.e. satellite images, precipitation radar, ground and air-borne measurements. These multidimensional multivariate data are geo-referenced and can be combined in 3D space to provide more intuitive views on the atmospheric phenomena. We developed the Weather3DeXplorer (W3DX), a visualization framework for processing and interactive exploration and visualization using Virtual Reality (VR) technology. We managed to have great successes with research studies on extreme weather situations. In this paper we will elaborate what we have learned from application of interactive 3D visualization in the operational weather room. We will explain how important it is to control the degrees-of-freedom during interaction that are given to the users: forecasters/scientists; (3D camera and 3D slicing-plane navigation appear to be rather difficult for the users, when not implemented properly). We will present a novel approach of operational 3D visualization user interfaces (UI) that for a great deal eliminates the obstacle and the time it usually takes to set up the visualization parameters and an appropriate camera view on a certain atmospheric phenomenon. We have found our inspiration in the way our operational forecasters work in the weather room. We decided to form a bridge between 2D visualization images and interactive 3D exploration. Our method combines WEB-based 2D UI's, pre-rendered 3D visualization catalog for the latest NWP model runs, with immediate entry into interactive 3D session for selected visualization setting. Finally, we would like to present the first user experiences with this approach.

Assessment of Meteorological Drought Hazard Area using GIS in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Michael Horsfall

The purpose of this study was to make a model of the meteorological drought hazard area using GIS. ... overlaying different hazard indicator maps in the GIS, deploying the new model. The final ..... Northeast Thailand Project Bangkok. Min. of.

Pembangunan Aplikasi Pengolahan Data Unsur Cuaca Pada Stasiun Meteorologi Kota Tegal Berbasis Model Waterfall

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Khambali

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Untuk mendapatkan suatu pengolahan data yang cepat dan akurat serta dikelola dengan baik tentunya harus mempunyai sebuah sistem pengelolaan yang baik. Aplikasi pengolahan data unsur cuaca disusulkan pada penelitian ini. Dengan menggunakan model waterfall menjadikan tahapan dalam pengembangan sistem yang dibuat menjadi terstruktur dengan baik tahapannya. Dengan dibangunnya aplikasi pengolahan data unsur cuaca, maka kendala yang dihadapi oleh stasiun meteorologi Tegal khususnya dibagian pengamatan yaitu dalam penghitungan unsur cuaca dapat ditanggulangi sehingga dapat mempermudah dalam memperoleh laporan tentang data unsur cuaca.

Journal of Meteorology and Climate Science

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The Journal of Meteorology and Climate Science publishes rigorous theoretical reasoning and advanced empirical research in all areas of Meteorology and Climate Sciences. We welcome articles or proposals from all perspectives and on all subjects pertaining to Meteorology, Agriculture, Humanity, Physics, Geography, ...

European meteorological data: contribution to research, development, and policy support

Science.gov (United States)

Biavetti, Irene; Karetsos, Sotiris; Ceglar, Andrej; Toreti, Andrea; Panagos, Panos

2014-08-01

The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission has developed Interpolated Meteorological Datasets available on a regular 25x25km grid both to the scientific community and the general public. Among others, the Interpolated Meteorological Datasets include daily maximum/minimum temperature, cumulated daily precipitation, evapotranspiration and wind speed. These datasets can be accessed through a web interface after a simple registration procedure. The Interpolated Meteorological Datasets also serve the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) at European level. The temporal coverage of the datasets is more than 30 years and the spatial coverage includes EU Member States, neighboring European countries, and the Mediterranean countries. The meteorological data are highly relevant for the development, implementation and assessment of a number of European Union (EU) policy areas: agriculture, soil protection, environment, agriculture, food security, energy, climate change. An online user survey has been carried out in order to assess the impact of the Interpolated Meteorological Datasets on research developments. More than 70% of the users have used the meteorological datasets for research purposes and more than 50% of the users have used those sources as main input for their models. The usefulness of the data scored more than 70% and it is interesting to note that around 25% of the users have published their scientific outputs based on the Interpolated Meteorological Datasets. Finally, the user feedback focuses mostly on improving the data distribution process as well as the visibility of the web platform.

mr. A C++ library for the matching and running of the Standard Model parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kniehl, Bernd A.; Veretin, Oleg L.; Pikelner, Andrey F.; Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Dubna

2016-01-01

We present the C++ program library mr that allows us to reliably calculate the values of the running parameters in the Standard Model at high energy scales. The initial conditions are obtained by relating the running parameters in the MS renormalization scheme to observables at lower energies with full two-loop precision. The evolution is then performed in accordance with the renormalization group equations with full three-loop precision. Pure QCD corrections to the matching and running are included through four loops. We also provide a Mathematica interface for this program library.

mr. A C++ library for the matching and running of the Standard Model parameters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kniehl, Bernd A.; Veretin, Oleg L. [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). II. Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Pikelner, Andrey F. [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). II. Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Dubna (Russian Federation). Bogoliubov Lab. of Theoretical Physics

2016-01-15

We present the C++ program library mr that allows us to reliably calculate the values of the running parameters in the Standard Model at high energy scales. The initial conditions are obtained by relating the running parameters in the MS renormalization scheme to observables at lower energies with full two-loop precision. The evolution is then performed in accordance with the renormalization group equations with full three-loop precision. Pure QCD corrections to the matching and running are included through four loops. We also provide a Mathematica interface for this program library.

Simulation of nonlinear wave run-up with a high-order Boussinesq model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fuhrman, David R.; Madsen, Per A.

2008-01-01

This paper considers the numerical simulation of nonlinear wave run-up within a highly accurate Boussinesq-type model. Moving wet–dry boundary algorithms based on so-called extrapolating boundary techniques are utilized, and a new variant of this approach is proposed in two horizontal dimensions....... As validation, computed results involving the nonlinear run-up of periodic as well as transient waves on a sloping beach are considered in a single horizontal dimension, demonstrating excellent agreement with analytical solutions for both the free surface and horizontal velocity. In two horizontal dimensions...... cases involving long wave resonance in a parabolic basin, solitary wave evolution in a triangular channel, and solitary wave run-up on a circular conical island are considered. In each case the computed results compare well against available analytical solutions or experimental measurements. The ability...

Practice of Meteorological Services in Turpan Solar Eco-City in China (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Y.; Chang, R.; He, X.; Jiang, Y.; Zhao, D.; Ma, J.

2013-12-01

Turpan Solar Eco-City is located in Gobi in Northwest China, which is one of the National New Energy Demonstration Urban. The city was planed and designed from October of 2008 and constructed from May of 2010, and the first phase of the project has been completed by October of 2013. Energy supply in Turpan Solar Eco-City is mainly from PV power, which is installed in all of the roof and the total capacity is 13.4MW. During the planning and designing of the city, and the running of the smart grid, meteorological services have played an important role. 1) Solar Energy Resource Assessment during Planning Phase. According to the observed data from meteorological stations in recent 30 years, solar energy resource was assessed and available PV power generation capacity was calculated. The results showed that PV power generation capacity is 1.3 times the power consumption, that is, solar energy resource in Turpan is rich. 2) Key Meteorological Parameters Determination for Architectural Design. A professional solar energy resource station was constructed and the observational items included Global Horizontal Irradiance, Inclined Total Solar Irradiance at 30 degree, Inclined Total Solar Irradiance at local latitude, and so on. According these measured data, the optical inclined angle for PV array was determined, that is, 30 degree. The results indicated that the annual irradiation on inclined plane with optimal angle is 1.4% higher than the inclined surface with latitude angle, and 23.16% higher than the horizontal plane. The diffuse ratio and annual variation of the solar elevation angle are two major factors that influence the irradiation on inclined plane. 3) Solar Energy Resource Forecast for Smart Grid. Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model was used to forecast the hourly solar radiation of future 72 hours and the measured irradiance data was used to forecast the minutely solar radiation of future 4 hours. The forecast results were submitted to smart grid and used to

Design and Development of a Model to Simulate 0-G Treadmill Running Using the European Space Agency's Subject Loading System

Science.gov (United States)

Caldwell, E. C.; Cowley, M. S.; Scott-Pandorf, M. M.

2010-01-01

Develop a model that simulates a human running in 0 G using the European Space Agency s (ESA) Subject Loading System (SLS). The model provides ground reaction forces (GRF) based on speed and pull-down forces (PDF). DESIGN The theoretical basis for the Running Model was based on a simple spring-mass model. The dynamic properties of the spring-mass model express theoretical vertical GRF (GRFv) and shear GRF in the posterior-anterior direction (GRFsh) during running gait. ADAMs VIEW software was used to build the model, which has a pelvis, thigh segment, shank segment, and a spring foot (see Figure 1).the model s movement simulates the joint kinematics of a human running at Earth gravity with the aim of generating GRF data. DEVELOPMENT & VERIFICATION ESA provided parabolic flight data of subjects running while using the SLS, for further characterization of the model s GRF. Peak GRF data were fit to a linear regression line dependent on PDF and speed. Interpolation and extrapolation of the regression equation provided a theoretical data matrix, which is used to drive the model s motion equations. Verification of the model was conducted by running the model at 4 different speeds, with each speed accounting for 3 different PDF. The model s GRF data fell within a 1-standard-deviation boundary derived from the empirical ESA data. CONCLUSION The Running Model aids in conducting various simulations (potential scenarios include a fatigued runner or a powerful runner generating high loads at a fast cadence) to determine limitations for the T2 vibration isolation system (VIS) aboard the International Space Station. This model can predict how running with the ESA SLS affects the T2 VIS and may be used for other exercise analyses in the future.

Improvement of Meteorological Inputs for TexAQS-II Air Quality Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Ngan, F.; Byun, D.; Kim, H.; Cheng, F.; Kim, S.; Lee, D.

2008-12-01

An air quality forecasting system (UH-AQF) for Eastern Texas, which is in operation by the Institute for Multidimensional Air Quality Studies (IMAQS) at the University of Houston, uses the Fifth-Generation PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model MM5 model as the meteorological driver for modeling air quality with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. While the forecasting system was successfully used for the planning and implementation of various measurement activities, evaluations of the forecasting results revealed a few systematic problems in the numerical simulations. From comparison with observations, we observe some times over-prediction of northerly winds caused by inaccurate synoptic inputs and other times too strong southerly winds caused by local sea breeze development. Discrepancies in maximum and minimum temperature are also seen for certain days. Precipitation events, as well as clouds, are simulated at the incorrect locations and times occasionally. Model simulatednrealistic thunderstorms are simulated, causing sometimes cause unrealistically strong outflows. To understand physical and chemical processes influencing air quality measures, a proper description of real world meteorological conditions is essential. The objective of this study is to generate better meteorological inputs than the AQF results to support the chemistry modeling. We utilized existing objective analysis and nudging tools in the MM5 system to develop the MUltiscale Nest-down Data Assimilation System (MUNDAS), which incorporates extensive meteorological observations available in the simulated domain for the retrospective simulation of the TexAQS-II period. With the re-simulated meteorological input, we are able to better predict ozone events during TexAQS-II period. In addition, base datasets in MM5 such as land use/land cover, vegetation fraction, soil type and sea surface temperature are updated by satellite data to represent the surface features more accurately. They are key

Modelling the future distribution of ammonium nitrate concentrations in The Netherlands for 2020: The sensitivity to meteorological parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, J. E.; van der Swaluw, E.; de Vries, W. J.; Sauter, F. J.; van Pul, W. A. J.; Hoogerbrugge, R.

2015-08-01

We present a parameterization developed to simulate Ammonium particle (NH4+) concentrations in the Operational Priority Substances (OPS) source-receptor model, without the necessity of using a detailed chemical scheme. By using the ratios of the main pre-cursor gases SO2, NO2 and NH3, and utilising calculations performed using a chemical box-model, we show that the parameterization can simulate annual mean NH4+ concentration fields to within ∼15% of measured values at locations throughout the Netherlands. Performing simulations for different decades, we find a strong correlation of simulated NH4+ distributions for both past (1993-1995) and present (2009-2012) time periods. Although the total concentration of NH4+ has decreased over the period, we find that the fraction of NH4+ transported into the Netherlands has increased from around 40% in the past to 50% for present-day. This is due to the variable efficiency of mitigation practises across economic sectors. Performing simulations for the year 2020 using associated emission estimates, we show that there are generally decreases of ∼8-25% compared to present day concentrations. By altering the meteorological fields applied in the future simulations, we show that a significant uncertainty of between ∼50 and 100% exists on this estimated NH4+ distribution as a result of variability in the temperature dependent emission terms and relative humidity. Therefore, any projections of future NH4+ distributions should be performed using well chosen meteorological fields representing recent meteorological situations.

Added Value of uncertainty Estimates of SOurce term and Meteorology (AVESOME)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Jens Havskov; Schönfeldt, Fredrik; Sigg, Robert

In the early phase of a nuclear accident, two large sources of uncertainty exist: one related to the source term and one associated with the meteorological data. Operational methods are being developed in AVESOME for quantitative estimation of uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion prediction.......g. at national meteorological services, the proposed methodology is feasible for real-time use, thereby adding value to decision support. In the recent NKS-B projects MUD, FAUNA and MESO, the implications of meteorological uncertainties for nuclear emergency preparedness and management have been studied...... uncertainty in atmospheric dispersion model forecasting stemming from both the source term and the meteorological data is examined. Ways to implement the uncertainties of forecasting in DSSs, and the impacts on real-time emergency management are described. The proposed methodology allows for efficient real...

Voluntary Wheel Running in Mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Goh, Jorming; Ladiges, Warren

2015-12-02

Voluntary wheel running in the mouse is used to assess physical performance and endurance and to model exercise training as a way to enhance health. Wheel running is a voluntary activity in contrast to other experimental exercise models in mice, which rely on aversive stimuli to force active movement. This protocol consists of allowing mice to run freely on the open surface of a slanted, plastic saucer-shaped wheel placed inside a standard mouse cage. Rotations are electronically transmitted to a USB hub so that frequency and rate of running can be captured via a software program for data storage and analysis for variable time periods. Mice are individually housed so that accurate recordings can be made for each animal. Factors such as mouse strain, gender, age, and individual motivation, which affect running activity, must be considered in the design of experiments using voluntary wheel running. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Black hole constraints on the running-mass inflation model

OpenAIRE

Leach, Samuel M; Grivell, Ian J; Liddle, Andrew R

2000-01-01

The running-mass inflation model, which has strong motivation from particle physics, predicts density perturbations whose spectral index is strongly scale-dependent. For a large part of parameter space the spectrum rises sharply to short scales. In this paper we compute the production of primordial black holes, using both analytic and numerical calculation of the density perturbation spectra. Observational constraints from black hole production are shown to exclude a large region of otherwise...

Syllabi for Instruction in Agricultural Meteorology.

Science.gov (United States)

De Villiers, G. D. B.; And Others

A working group of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology has prepared this report to fill a need for detailed syllabi for instruction in agricultural meteorology required by different levels of personnel. Agrometeorological personnel are classified in three categories: (1) professional meteorological personnel (graduates with basic training…

WJBF TV tower meteorological database for the ERAD Code-1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weber, A.H.

1996-07-01

The Explosive Release Atmospheric Dispersion (ERAD) model (Boughton and DeLaurentis 1992) is a three-dimensional numerical model for simulating atmospheric transport and dispersion. The ERAD code is particularly adept at handling explosive releases into the atmosphere and is being used by the Materials and Accountability Department at the Savannah River Site (SRS) to provide risk estimates. The Environmental Technology Section (ETS) was asked to provide meteorological data to be used for applying ERAD to some site facilities. The ERAD model requires a vertical profile of meteorological measurements. The 1993 data from the WJBF-TV tower has been processed and provided for this purpose. This document describes the steps taken to prepare and format the database

Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy data - over 200 satellite-derived meteorology and solar energy parameters, monthly averaged from 22 years of data, global solar...

Wheel-running in a transgenic mouse model of Alzheimer's disease: protection or symptom?

Science.gov (United States)

Richter, Helene; Ambrée, Oliver; Lewejohann, Lars; Herring, Arne; Keyvani, Kathy; Paulus, Werner; Palme, Rupert; Touma, Chadi; Schäbitz, Wolf-Rüdiger; Sachser, Norbert

2008-06-26

Several studies on both humans and animals reveal benefits of physical exercise on brain function and health. A previous study on TgCRND8 mice, a transgenic model of Alzheimer's disease, reported beneficial effects of premorbid onset of long-term access to a running wheel on spatial learning and plaque deposition. Our study investigated the effects of access to a running wheel after the onset of Abeta pathology on behavioural, endocrinological, and neuropathological parameters. From day 80 of age, the time when Abeta deposition becomes apparent, TgCRND8 and wildtype mice were kept with or without running wheel. Home cage behaviour was analysed and cognitive abilities regarding object recognition memory and spatial learning in the Barnes maze were assessed. Our results show that, in comparison to Wt mice, Tg mice were characterised by impaired object recognition memory and spatial learning, increased glucocorticoid levels, hyperactivity in the home cage and high levels of stereotypic behaviour. Access to a running wheel had no effects on cognitive or neuropathological parameters, but reduced the amount of stereotypic behaviour in transgenics significantly. Furthermore, wheel-running was inversely correlated with stereotypic behaviour, suggesting that wheel-running may have stereotypic qualities. In addition, wheel-running positively correlated with plaque burden. Thus, in a phase when plaques are already present in the brain, it may be symptomatic of brain pathology, rather than protective. Whether or not access to a running wheel has beneficial effects on Alzheimer-like pathology and symptoms may therefore strongly depend on the exact time when the wheel is provided during development of the disease.

Effects of short-term variability of meteorological variables on soil temperature in permafrost regions

Science.gov (United States)

Beer, Christian; Porada, Philipp; Ekici, Altug; Brakebusch, Matthias

2018-03-01

Effects of the short-term temporal variability of meteorological variables on soil temperature in northern high-latitude regions have been investigated. For this, a process-oriented land surface model has been driven using an artificially manipulated climate dataset. Short-term climate variability mainly impacts snow depth, and the thermal diffusivity of lichens and bryophytes. These impacts of climate variability on insulating surface layers together substantially alter the heat exchange between atmosphere and soil. As a result, soil temperature is 0.1 to 0.8 °C higher when climate variability is reduced. Earth system models project warming of the Arctic region but also increasing variability of meteorological variables and more often extreme meteorological events. Therefore, our results show that projected future increases in permafrost temperature and active-layer thickness in response to climate change will be lower (i) when taking into account future changes in short-term variability of meteorological variables and (ii) when representing dynamic snow and lichen and bryophyte functions in land surface models.

Exploring the relationship between meteorology and surface PM2.5 in Northern India

Science.gov (United States)

Schnell, J.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L. W.; Paulot, F.; Ginoux, P. A.

2017-12-01

Northern India is one of the most polluted and densely populated regions in world. Accurately modeling pollution in the region is difficult due to the extreme conditions with respect to emissions, meteorology, and topography, but it is paramount in order to understand how future changes in emissions and climate may alter the region's pollution regime. We evaluate a developmental version of the new-generation NOAA GFDL Atmospheric Model, version 4 (AM4) in its ability to simulate observed wintertime PM2.5 and its relationship to meteorology over the Northern India (23°N-31°N, 68°E-90°E). We perform two simulations of the GFDL-AM4 nudged to observed meteorology for the period (1980-2016) with two emission inventories developed for CMIP5 and CMIP6 and compare results with observations from India's Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) for the period 1 October 2015 - 31 March 2016. Overall, our results indicate that the simulation with CMIP6 emissions has substantially reduced the low model bias in the region. The AM4, albeit biased low, generally simulates the magnitude and daily variability in observed total PM2.5. Ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate are the primary components of PM2.5 in the model, and although not directly observed, correlations of total observed PM2.5 and meteorology with the modeled individual PM2.5 components suggest the same for the observations. The model correctly reproduces the shape and magnitude of the seasonal cycle of PM2.5; but for the diurnal cycle, it misses the early evening rise and secondary maximum found in the observations. Observed PM2.5 abundances within the densely populated Indo-Gangetic Plain are by far the highest and are closely related to boundary layer meteorology, specifically relative humidity, wind speed, boundary layer height, and inversion strength. The GFDL-AM4 reproduces the observed pollution gradient over Northern India as well as the strength of the meteorology-PM2.5 relationship in most locations.

Meteorological Controls on Local and Regional Volcanic Ash Dispersal.

Science.gov (United States)

Poulidis, Alexandros P; Phillips, Jeremy C; Renfrew, Ian A; Barclay, Jenni; Hogg, Andrew; Jenkins, Susanna F; Robertson, Richard; Pyle, David M

2018-05-02

Volcanic ash has the capacity to impact human health, livestock, crops and infrastructure, including international air traffic. For recent major eruptions, information on the volcanic ash plume has been combined with relatively coarse-resolution meteorological model output to provide simulations of regional ash dispersal, with reasonable success on the scale of hundreds of kilometres. However, to predict and mitigate these impacts locally, significant improvements in modelling capability are required. Here, we present results from a dynamic meteorological-ash-dispersion model configured with sufficient resolution to represent local topographic and convectively-forced flows. We focus on an archetypal volcanic setting, Soufrière, St Vincent, and use the exceptional historical records of the 1902 and 1979 eruptions to challenge our simulations. We find that the evolution and characteristics of ash deposition on St Vincent and nearby islands can be accurately simulated when the wind shear associated with the trade wind inversion and topographically-forced flows are represented. The wind shear plays a primary role and topographic flows a secondary role on ash distribution on local to regional scales. We propose a new explanation for the downwind ash deposition maxima, commonly observed in volcanic eruptions, as resulting from the detailed forcing of mesoscale meteorology on the ash plume.

Fire and forest meteorology

Science.gov (United States)

SA Ferguson; T.J. Brown; M. Flannigan

2005-01-01

The American Meteorological Society symposia series on Fire and Forest Meteorology provides biennial forums for atmospheric and fire scientists to introduce and discuss the latest and most relevant research on weather, climate and fire. This special issue highlights significant work that was presented at the Fifth Symposium in Orlando, Florida during 16-20 November...

Towards a numerical run-out model for quick-clay slides

Science.gov (United States)

Issler, Dieter; L'Heureux, Jean-Sébastien; Cepeda, José M.; Luna, Byron Quan; Gebreslassie, Tesfahunegn A.

2015-04-01

Highly sensitive glacio-marine clays occur in many relatively low-lying areas near the coasts of eastern Canada, Scandinavia and northern Russia. If the load exceeds the yield stress of these clays, they quickly liquefy, with a reduction of the yield strength and the viscosity by several orders of magnitude. Leaching, fluvial erosion, earthquakes and man-made overloads, by themselves or combined, are the most frequent triggers of quick-clay slides, which are hard to predict and can attain catastrophic dimensions. The present contribution reports on two preparatory studies that were conducted with a view to creating a run-out model tailored to the characteristics of quick-clay slides. One study analyzed the connections between the morphological and geotechnical properties of more than 30 well-documented Norwegian quick-clay slides and their run-out behavior. The laboratory experiments by Locat and Demers (1988) suggest that the behavior of quick clays can be reasonably described by universal relations involving the liquidity index, plastic index, remolding energy, salinity and sensitivity. However, these tests should be repeated with Norwegian clays and analyzed in terms of a (shear-thinning) Herschel-Bulkley fluid rather than a Bingham fluid because the shear stress appears to grow in a sub-linear fashion with the shear rate. Further study is required to understand the discrepancy between the material parameters obtained in laboratory tests of material from observed slides and in back-calculations of the same slides with the simple model by Edgers & Karlsrud (1982). The second study assessed the capability of existing numerical flow models to capture the most important aspects of quick-clay slides by back-calculating three different, well documented events in Norway: Rissa (1978), Finneidfjord (1996) and Byneset (2012). The numerical codes were (i) BING, a quasi-two-dimensional visco-plastic model, (ii) DAN3D (2009 version), and (iii) MassMov2D. The latter two are

Prosthetic model, but not stiffness or height, affects the metabolic cost of running for athletes with unilateral transtibial amputations.

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, Owen N; Taboga, Paolo; Grabowski, Alena M

2017-07-01

Running-specific prostheses enable athletes with lower limb amputations to run by emulating the spring-like function of biological legs. Current prosthetic stiffness and height recommendations aim to mitigate kinematic asymmetries for athletes with unilateral transtibial amputations. However, it is unclear how different prosthetic configurations influence the biomechanics and metabolic cost of running. Consequently, we investigated how prosthetic model, stiffness, and height affect the biomechanics and metabolic cost of running. Ten athletes with unilateral transtibial amputations each performed 15 running trials at 2.5 or 3.0 m/s while we measured ground reaction forces and metabolic rates. Athletes ran using three different prosthetic models with five different stiffness category and height combinations per model. Use of an Ottobock 1E90 Sprinter prosthesis reduced metabolic cost by 4.3 and 3.4% compared with use of Freedom Innovations Catapult [fixed effect (β) = -0.177; P Run (β = -0.139; P = 0.002) prostheses, respectively. Neither prosthetic stiffness ( P ≥ 0.180) nor height ( P = 0.062) affected the metabolic cost of running. The metabolic cost of running was related to lower peak (β = 0.649; P = 0.001) and stance average (β = 0.772; P = 0.018) vertical ground reaction forces, prolonged ground contact times (β = -4.349; P = 0.012), and decreased leg stiffness (β = 0.071; P running. Instead, an optimal prosthetic model, which improves overall biomechanics, minimizes the metabolic cost of running for athletes with unilateral transtibial amputations. NEW & NOTEWORTHY The metabolic cost of running for athletes with unilateral transtibial amputations depends on prosthetic model and is associated with lower peak and stance average vertical ground reaction forces, longer contact times, and reduced leg stiffness. Metabolic cost is unrelated to prosthetic stiffness, height, and stride kinematic symmetry. Unlike nonamputees who decrease leg stiffness with

Users guide to REGIONAL-1: a regional assessment model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, W.E.; Eadie, W.J.; Powell, D.C.

1979-09-01

A guide was prepared to allow a user to run the PNL long-range transport model, REGIONAL 1. REGIONAL 1 is a computer model set up to run atmospheric assessments on a regional basis. The model has the capability of being run in three modes for a single time period. The three modes are: (1) no deposition, (2) dry deposition, (3) wet and dry deposition. The guide provides the physical and mathematical basis used in the model for calculating transport, diffusion, and deposition for all three modes. Also the guide includes a program listing with an explanation of the listings and an example in the form of a short-term assessment for 48 hours. The purpose of the example is to allow a person who has past experience with programming and meteorology to operate the assessment model and compare his results with the guide results. This comparison will assure the user that the program is operating in a proper fashion

From control to causation: Validating a 'complex systems model' of running-related injury development and prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Hulme, A; Salmon, P M; Nielsen, R O; Read, G J M; Finch, C F

2017-11-01

There is a need for an ecological and complex systems approach for better understanding the development and prevention of running-related injury (RRI). In a previous article, we proposed a prototype model of the Australian recreational distance running system which was based on the Systems Theoretic Accident Mapping and Processes (STAMP) method. That model included the influence of political, organisational, managerial, and sociocultural determinants alongside individual-level factors in relation to RRI development. The purpose of this study was to validate that prototype model by drawing on the expertise of both systems thinking and distance running experts. This study used a modified Delphi technique involving a series of online surveys (December 2016- March 2017). The initial survey was divided into four sections containing a total of seven questions pertaining to different features associated with the prototype model. Consensus in opinion about the validity of the prototype model was reached when the number of experts who agreed or disagreed with survey statement was ≥75% of the total number of respondents. A total of two Delphi rounds was needed to validate the prototype model. Out of a total of 51 experts who were initially contacted, 50.9% (n = 26) completed the first round of the Delphi, and 92.3% (n = 24) of those in the first round participated in the second. Most of the 24 full participants considered themselves to be a running expert (66.7%), and approximately a third indicated their expertise as a systems thinker (33.3%). After the second round, 91.7% of the experts agreed that the prototype model was a valid description of the Australian distance running system. This is the first study to formally examine the development and prevention of RRI from an ecological and complex systems perspective. The validated model of the Australian distance running system facilitates theoretical advancement in terms of identifying practical system

An approach for the estimation of the aggregated photovoltaic power generated in several European countries from meteorological data

Science.gov (United States)

Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie; Wald, Lucien; Ranchin, Thierry; Dubus, Laurent; Troccoli, Alberto

2018-05-01

Classical approaches to the calculation of the photovoltaic (PV) power generated in a region from meteorological data require the knowledge of the detailed characteristics of the plants, which are most often not publicly available. An approach is proposed with the objective to obtain the best possible assessment of power generated in any region without having to collect detailed information on PV plants. The proposed approach is based on a model of PV plant coupled with a statistical distribution of the prominent characteristics of the configuration of the plant and is tested over Europe. The generated PV power is first calculated for each of the plant configurations frequently found in a given region and then aggregated taking into account the probability of occurrence of each configuration. A statistical distribution has been constructed from detailed information obtained for several thousands of PV plants representing approximately 2 % of the total number of PV plants in Germany and was then adapted to other European countries by taking into account changes in the optimal PV tilt angle as a function of the latitude and meteorological conditions. The model has been run with bias-adjusted ERA-interim data as meteorological inputs. The results have been compared to estimates of the total PV power generated in two countries: France and Germany, as provided by the corresponding transmission system operators. Relative RMSE of 4.2 and 3.8 % and relative biases of -2.4 and 0.1 % were found with three-hourly data for France and Germany. A validation against estimates of the country-wide PV-power generation provided by the ENTSO-E for 16 European countries has also been conducted. This evaluation is made difficult by the uncertainty on the installed capacity corresponding to the ENTSO-E data but it nevertheless allows demonstrating that the model output and TSO data are highly correlated in most countries. Given the simplicity of the proposed approach these results are

Linked Environments for Atmospheric Discovery (LEAD): A Cyberinfrastructure for Mesoscale Meteorology Research and Education

Science.gov (United States)

Droegemeier, K.

2004-12-01

A new National Science Foundation Large Information Technology Research (ITR) grant - known as Linked Environments for Atmospheric Discovery (LEAD) - has been funded to facilitate the identification, access, preparation, assimilation, prediction, management, analysis, mining, and visualization of a broad array of meteorological data and model output, independent of format and physical location. A transforming element of LEAD is dynamic workflow orchestration and data management, which will allow use of analysis tools, forecast models, and data repositories as dynamically adaptive, on-demand systems that can a) change configuration rapidly and automatically in response to weather; b) continually be steered by new data; c) respond to decision-driven inputs from users; d) initiate other processes automatically; and e) steer remote observing technologies to optimize data collection for the problem at hand. Having been in operation for slightly more than a year, LEAD has created a technology roadmap and architecture for developing its capabilities and placing them within the academic and research environment. Further, much of the LEAD infrastructure being developed for the WRF model, particularly workflow orchestration, will play a significant role in the nascent WRF Developmental Test Bed Center located at NCAR. This paper updates the status of LEAD (e.g., the topics noted above), its ties with other community activities (e.g., CONDUIT, THREDDS, MADIS, NOMADS), and the manner in which LEAD technologies will be made available for general use. Each component LEAD application is being created as a standards-based Web service that can be run in stand-alone configuration or chained together to build an end-to-end environment for on-demand, real time NWP. We describe in this paper the concepts, implementation plans, and expected impacts of LEAD, the underpinning of which will be a series of interconnected, heterogeneous virtual IT "Grid environments" designed to provide a

The long-run forecasting of energy prices using the model of shifting trend

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Radchenko, Stanislav

2005-01-01

Developing models for accurate long-term energy price forecasting is an important problem because these forecasts should be useful in determining both supply and demand of energy. On the supply side, long-term forecasts determine investment decisions of energy-related companies. On the demand side, investments in physical capital and durable goods depend on price forecasts of a particular energy type. Forecasting long-run rend movements in energy prices is very important on the macroeconomic level for several developing countries because energy prices have large impacts on their real output, the balance of payments, fiscal policy, etc. Pindyck (1999) argues that the dynamics of real energy prices is mean-reverting to trend lines with slopes and levels that are shifting unpredictably over time. The hypothesis of shifting long-term trend lines was statistically tested by Benard et al. (2004). The authors find statistically significant instabilities for coal and natural gas prices. I continue the research of energy prices in the framework of continuously shifting levels and slopes of trend lines started by Pindyck (1999). The examined model offers both parsimonious approach and perspective on the developments in energy markets. Using the model of depletable resource production, Pindyck (1999) argued that the forecast of energy prices in the model is based on the long-run total marginal cost. Because the model of a shifting trend is based on the competitive behavior, one may examine deviations of oil producers from the competitive behavior by studying the difference between actual prices and long-term forecasts. To construct the long-run forecasts (10-year-ahead and 15-year-ahead) of energy prices, I modify the univariate shifting trends model of Pindyck (1999). I relax some assumptions on model parameters, the assumption of white noise error term, and propose a new Bayesian approach utilizing a Gibbs sampling algorithm to estimate the model with autocorrelation. To

DESCARTES AND THE METEOROLOGY OF THE WORLD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrick BRISSEY

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Descartes claimed that he thought he could deduce the assumptions of his Meteorology by the contents of the Discourse. He actually began the Meteorology with assumptions. The content of the Discourse, moreover, does not indicate how he deduced the assumptions of the Meteorology. We seem to be left in a precarious position. We can examine the text as it was published, independent of Descartes’ claims, which suggests that he incorporated a presumptive or hypothetical method. On the other hand, we can take Descartes’ claims as our guide and search for the epistemic foundations of the Meteorology independent of the Discourse. In this paper, I will pursue the latter route. My aim is to explain why, and how, Descartes thought that he had deduced the assumptions of the Meteorology. My interest, in this case, is solely Descartes’ physical foundation for the Meteorology, in the physics and physiology that resulted in Descartes’ explanation. With this aim, I provide an interpretation of Descartes’ World where many of its conclusions serve as evidence for the assumptions of the Meteorology. I provisionally conclude that Descartes thought that his World was the epistemic foundation for his Meteorology.

Lloyd Berkner: Catalyst for Meteorology's Fabulous Fifties

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, J. M.

2002-05-01

In the long sweep of meteorological history - from Aristotle's Meteorologica to the threshold of the third millennium - the 1950s will surely be recognized as a defining decade. The contributions of many individuals were responsible for the combination of vision and institution building that marked this decade and set the stage for explosive development during the subsequent forty years. In the minds of many individuals who were active during those early years, however, one name stands out as a prime mover par excellence: Lloyd Viel Berkner. On May 1, 1957, Berkner addressed the National Press Club. The address was entitled, "Horizons of Meteorology". It reveals Berkner's insights into meteorology from his position as Chairman of the Committee on Meteorology of the National Academy of Sciences, soon to release the path-breaking report, Research and Education in Meteorology (1958). The address also reflects the viewpoint of an individual deeply involved in the International Geophysical Year (IGY). It is an important footnote to meteorological history. We welcome this opportunity to profile Berkner and to discuss "Horizons of Meteorology" in light of meteorology's state-of-affairs in the 1950s and the possible relevance to Berkner's ideas to contemporary issues.

Numerical simulation of meteorological conditions for peak pollution in Paris

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carissimo, B. [Electricite de France (EDF), 78 - Chatou (France). Direction des Etudes et Recherches

1997-06-01

Results obtained on the simulation of meteorological conditions during two episodes of peak pollution in Paris are presented, one in the winter, the other in the summer. The A3UR air quality modelling system is first described followed by the MERCURE mesoscale meteorological model. The conditions of simulation are described. The results obtained on these two causes show satisfactory agreement, for example on the magnitude of the urban heat island which is correctly reproduced. In this study, several areas of progress have been identified: improvement of the altitude measurement network around cities, the simulation of light wind conditions and the simulation of formation and dissipation of fog. (author) 24 refs.

Human and avian running on uneven ground: a model-based comparison

OpenAIRE

Müller, R.; Birn-Jeffery, A. V.; Blum, Y.

2016-01-01

Birds and humans are successful bipedal runners, who have individually evolved bipedalism, but the extent of the similarities and differences of their bipedal locomotion is unknown. In turn, the anatomical differences of their locomotor systems complicate direct comparisons. However, a simplifying mechanical model, such as the conservative spring–mass model, can be used to describe both avian and human running and thus, provides a way to compare the locomotor strategies that birds and humans ...

Running the running

OpenAIRE

Cabass, Giovanni; Di Valentino, Eleonora; Melchiorri, Alessandro; Pajer, Enrico; Silk, Joseph

2016-01-01

We use the recent observations of Cosmic Microwave Background temperature and polarization anisotropies provided by the Planck satellite experiment to place constraints on the running $\\alpha_\\mathrm{s} = \\mathrm{d}n_{\\mathrm{s}} / \\mathrm{d}\\log k$ and the running of the running $\\beta_{\\mathrm{s}} = \\mathrm{d}\\alpha_{\\mathrm{s}} / \\mathrm{d}\\log k$ of the spectral index $n_{\\mathrm{s}}$ of primordial scalar fluctuations. We find $\\alpha_\\mathrm{s}=0.011\\pm0.010$ and $\\beta_\\mathrm{s}=0.027\\...

Instantaneous-to-daily GPP upscaling schemes based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model: correcting the overestimation of GPP by directly using daily average meteorological inputs.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Fumin; Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Black, T Andrew; Zhou, Bin

2014-11-01

Daily canopy photosynthesis is usually temporally upscaled from instantaneous (i.e., seconds) photosynthesis rate. The nonlinear response of photosynthesis to meteorological variables makes the temporal scaling a significant challenge. In this study, two temporal upscaling schemes of daily photosynthesis, the integrated daily model (IDM) and the segmented daily model (SDM), are presented by considering the diurnal variations of meteorological variables based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model. The two models, as well as a simple average daily model (SADM) with daily average meteorological inputs, were validated using the tower-derived gross primary production (GPP) to assess their abilities in simulating daily photosynthesis. The results showed IDM closely followed the seasonal trend of the tower-derived GPP with an average RMSE of 1.63 g C m(-2) day(-1), and an average Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E) of 0.87. SDM performed similarly to IDM in GPP simulation but decreased the computation time by >66%. SADM overestimated daily GPP by about 15% during the growing season compared to IDM. Both IDM and SDM greatly decreased the overestimation by SADM, and improved the simulation of daily GPP by reducing the RMSE by 34 and 30%, respectively. The results indicated that IDM and SDM are useful temporal upscaling approaches, and both are superior to SADM in daily GPP simulation because they take into account the diurnally varying responses of photosynthesis to meteorological variables. SDM is computationally more efficient, and therefore more suitable for long-term and large-scale GPP simulations.

Dezenflasyon Sürecinde Türkiye’de Enflasyonun Uzun ve Kısa Dönem Dinamiklerinin Modellenmesi(Modelling The Long Run and The Short Run Dynamics of Inflation In The Disinflation Process In Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Macide ÇİÇEK

2005-01-01

Full Text Available In this study, it is employed that Expectations-Augmented Philips Curve Model to investigate the link between inflation and unit labor costs, output gap (proxy for demand shocks, real exchange rate (proxy for supply shocks and price expectations for Turkey using monthly data from 2000:01 to 2004:12. The methodology employed in this paper uses unit root test, Johansen Cointegration Test to examine the existence of possible long run relationships among the variables included in the model and a single equation error correction model for the inflation equation estimated by OLS to examine the short run dynamics of inflation, respectively. It is find that in the long run, mark-up behaviour of output prices over unit labor costs is the main cause of inflation, real exchange rate has a rather big impact on reduced inflation and demand shocks don’t led to an increase in prices. The short run dynamics of the inflation equation indicate that supply shocks are the determinant of inflation in the short run. It is also find that exchange rate is the variable that trigger an inflation adjustment the most rapidly in the short run.

Description of the University of Auckland Global Mars Mesoscale Meteorological Model (GM4)

Science.gov (United States)

Wing, D. R.; Austin, G. L.

2005-08-01

The University of Auckland Global Mars Mesoscale Meteorological Model (GM4) is a numerical weather prediction model of the Martian atmosphere that has been developed through the conversion of the Penn State University / National Center for Atmospheric Research fifth generation mesoscale model (MM5). The global aspect of this model is self consistent, overlapping, and forms a continuous domain around the entire planet, removing the need to provide boundary conditions other than at initialisation, yielding independence from the constraint of a Mars general circulation model. The brief overview of the model will be given, outlining the key physical processes and setup of the model. Comparison between data collected from Mars Pathfinder during its 1997 mission and simulated conditions using GM4 have been performed. Diurnal temperature variation as predicted by the model shows very good correspondence with the surface truth data, to within 5 K for the majority of the diurnal cycle. Mars Viking Data is also compared with the model, with good agreement. As a further means of validation for the model, various seasonal comparisons of surface and vertical atmospheric structure are conducted with the European Space Agency AOPP/LMD Mars Climate Database. Selected simulations over regions of interest will also be presented.

ASCHFLOW - A dynamic landslide run-out model for medium scale hazard analysis

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Quan Luna, B.; Blahůt, Jan; van Asch, T.W.J.; van Westen, C.J.; Kappes, M.

2016-01-01

Roč. 3, 12 December (2016), č. článku 29. E-ISSN 2197-8670 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : landslides * run-out models * medium scale hazard analysis * quantitative risk assessment Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography

The meteorological data acquisition system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bouharrour, S.; Thomas, P.

1975-07-01

The 200 m meteorological tower of the Karlsruhe Nuclear Research Center has been equipped with 45 instruments measuring the meteorological parameters near the ground level. Frequent inquiry of the instruments implies data acquisition with on-line data reduction. This task is fulfilled by some peripheral units controlled by a PDP-8/I. This report presents details of the hardware configuration and a short description of the software configuration of the meteorological data acquisition system. The report also serves as an instruction for maintenance and repair work to be carried out at the system. (orig.) [de

The effect of footwear on running performance and running economy in distance runners.

Science.gov (United States)

Fuller, Joel T; Bellenger, Clint R; Thewlis, Dominic; Tsiros, Margarita D; Buckley, Jonathan D

2015-03-01

The effect of footwear on running economy has been investigated in numerous studies. However, no systematic review and meta-analysis has synthesised the available literature and the effect of footwear on running performance is not known. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to investigate the effect of footwear on running performance and running economy in distance runners, by reviewing controlled trials that compare different footwear conditions or compare footwear with barefoot. The Web of Science, Scopus, MEDLINE, CENTRAL (Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials), EMBASE, AMED (Allied and Complementary Medicine), CINAHL and SPORTDiscus databases were searched from inception up until April 2014. Included articles reported on controlled trials that examined the effects of footwear or footwear characteristics (including shoe mass, cushioning, motion control, longitudinal bending stiffness, midsole viscoelasticity, drop height and comfort) on running performance or running economy and were published in a peer-reviewed journal. Of the 1,044 records retrieved, 19 studies were included in the systematic review and 14 studies were included in the meta-analysis. No studies were identified that reported effects on running performance. Individual studies reported significant, but trivial, beneficial effects on running economy for comfortable and stiff-soled shoes [standardised mean difference (SMD) beneficial effect on running economy for cushioned shoes (SMD = 0.37; P beneficial effect on running economy for training in minimalist shoes (SMD = 0.79; P beneficial effects on running economy for light shoes and barefoot compared with heavy shoes (SMD running was identified (P running economy. Certain models of footwear and footwear characteristics can improve running economy. Future research in footwear performance should include measures of running performance.

Running exercise protects the capillaries in white matter in a rat model of depression.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Lin-Mu; Zhang, Ai-Pin; Wang, Fei-Fei; Tan, Chuan-Xue; Gao, Yuan; Huang, Chun-Xia; Zhang, Yi; Jiang, Lin; Zhou, Chun-Ni; Chao, Feng-Lei; Zhang, Lei; Tang, Yong

2016-12-01

Running has been shown to improve depressive symptoms when used as an adjunct to medication. However, the mechanisms underlying the antidepressant effects of running are not fully understood. Changes of capillaries in white matter have been discovered in clinical patients and depression model rats. Considering the important part of white matter in depression, running may cause capillary structural changes in white matter. Chronic unpredictable stress (CUS) rats were provided with a 4-week running exercise (from the fifth week to the eighth week) for 20 minutes each day for 5 consecutive days each week. Anhedonia was measured by a behavior test. Furthermore, capillary changes were investigated in the control group, the CUS/Standard group, and the CUS/Running group using stereological methods. The 4-week running increased sucrose consumption significantly in the CUS/Running group and had significant effects on the total volume, total length, and total surface area of the capillaries in the white matter of depression rats. These results demonstrated that exercise-induced protection of the capillaries in white matter might be one of the structural bases for the exercise-induced treatment of depression. It might provide important parameters for further study of the vascular mechanisms of depression and a new research direction for the development of clinical antidepressant means. J. Comp. Neurol. 524:3577-3586, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Systems-level computational modeling demonstrates fuel selection switching in high capacity running and low capacity running rats

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Nathan R.

2018-01-01

High capacity and low capacity running rats, HCR and LCR respectively, have been bred to represent two extremes of running endurance and have recently demonstrated disparities in fuel usage during transient aerobic exercise. HCR rats can maintain fatty acid (FA) utilization throughout the course of transient aerobic exercise whereas LCR rats rely predominantly on glucose utilization. We hypothesized that the difference between HCR and LCR fuel utilization could be explained by a difference in mitochondrial density. To test this hypothesis and to investigate mechanisms of fuel selection, we used a constraint-based kinetic analysis of whole-body metabolism to analyze transient exercise data from these rats. Our model analysis used a thermodynamically constrained kinetic framework that accounts for glycolysis, the TCA cycle, and mitochondrial FA transport and oxidation. The model can effectively match the observed relative rates of oxidation of glucose versus FA, as a function of ATP demand. In searching for the minimal differences required to explain metabolic function in HCR versus LCR rats, it was determined that the whole-body metabolic phenotype of LCR, compared to the HCR, could be explained by a ~50% reduction in total mitochondrial activity with an additional 5-fold reduction in mitochondrial FA transport activity. Finally, we postulate that over sustained periods of exercise that LCR can partly overcome the initial deficit in FA catabolic activity by upregulating FA transport and/or oxidation processes. PMID:29474500

Predictions of dispersion and deposition of fallout from nuclear testing using the NOAA-HYSPLIT meteorological model.

Science.gov (United States)

Moroz, Brian E; Beck, Harold L; Bouville, André; Simon, Steven L

2010-08-01

The NOAA Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) was evaluated as a research tool to simulate the dispersion and deposition of radioactive fallout from nuclear tests. Model-based estimates of fallout can be valuable for use in the reconstruction of past exposures from nuclear testing, particularly where little historical fallout monitoring data are available. The ability to make reliable predictions about fallout deposition could also have significant importance for nuclear events in the future. We evaluated the accuracy of the HYSPLIT-predicted geographic patterns of deposition by comparing those predictions against known deposition patterns following specific nuclear tests with an emphasis on nuclear weapons tests conducted in the Marshall Islands. We evaluated the ability of the computer code to quantitatively predict the proportion of fallout particles of specific sizes deposited at specific locations as well as their time of transport. In our simulations of fallout from past nuclear tests, historical meteorological data were used from a reanalysis conducted jointly by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We used a systematic approach in testing the HYSPLIT model by simulating the release of a range of particle sizes from a range of altitudes and evaluating the number and location of particles deposited. Our findings suggest that the quantity and quality of meteorological data are the most important factors for accurate fallout predictions and that, when satisfactory meteorological input data are used, HYSPLIT can produce relatively accurate deposition patterns and fallout arrival times. Furthermore, when no other measurement data are available, HYSPLIT can be used to indicate whether or not fallout might have occurred at a given location and provide, at minimum, crude quantitative estimates of the magnitude of the deposited activity. A variety of

CROP YIELD AND CO2 FIXATION MONITORING IN ASIA USING A PHOTOSYNTHETICSTERILITY MODEL WITH SATELLITES AND METEOROLOGICAL DATA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Daijiro Kaneko [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Matsue National College of Technology, Matsue (Japan); Toshiro Kumakura [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nagaoka University of Technology, Nagaoka (Japan); Peng Yang [Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing and Digital Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing (China)

2008-09-30

This study is intended to develop a model for estimating carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) fixation in the carbon cycle and for monitoring grain yields using a photosynthetic-sterility model, which integrates solar radiation and air temperature effects on photosynthesis, along with grain-filling from heading to ripening. Grain production monitoring would support orderly crisis management to maintain food security in Asia, which is facing climate fluctuation through this century of global warming. The author improved a photosynthesis-and-sterility model to compute both the crop yield and crop situation index CSI, which gives a percentage of rice yields compared to normal annual production. The model calculates photosynthesis rates including biomass effects, lowtemperature sterility, and high-temperature injury by incorporating solar radiation, effective air temperature, the normalized difference vegetation index NDVI, and the effect of temperature on photosynthesis by grain plant leaves. A decision-tree method classifies the distribution of crop fields in Asia using MODIS fundamental landcover and SPOT VEGETATION data, which include the Normalized Vegetation index (NDVI) and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI). This study provides daily distributions of the photosynthesis rate, which is the CO2 fixation in Asian areas combined with the land-cover distribution, the Japanese geostationary meteorological satellite (GMS), and meteorological re-analysis data by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The method is based on routine observation data, enabling automated monitoring of crop yields.

How to run 100 meters ?

OpenAIRE

Aftalion, Amandine

2016-01-01

A paraitre dans SIAP; The aim of this paper is to bring a mathematical justification to the optimal way of organizing one's effort when running. It is well known from physiologists that all running exercises of duration less than 3mn are run with a strong initial acceleration and a decelerating end; on the contrary, long races are run with a final sprint. This can be explained using a mathematical model describing the evolution of the velocity, the anaerobic energy, and the propulsive force: ...

Comparison of surface meteorological data representativeness for the Weldon Spring transport and dispersion modeling analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lazaro, M.

1989-06-01

The US Department of Energy is conducting the Weldon Spring Site Remedial Action Project under the Surplus Facilities Management Program (SFMP). The major goals of the SFMP are to eliminate potential hazards to the public and the environment that associated with contamination at SFMP sites and to make surplus property available for other uses to the extent possible. This report presents the results of analysis of available meteorological data from stations near the Weldon Spring site. Data that are most representative of site conditions are needed to accurately model the transport and dispersion of air pollutants associated with remedial activities. Such modeling will assist the development of mitigative measures. 17 refs., 12 figs., 6 tabs

Wave Run-Up on Offshore Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ramirez, Jorge Robert Rodriguez

to the cylinder. Based on appropriate analysis the collected data has been analysed with the stream function theory to obtain the relevant parameters for the use of the predicted wave run-up formula. An analytical approach has been pursued and solved for individual waves. Maximum run-up and 2% run-up were studied......This study has investigated the interaction of water waves with a circular structure known as wave run-up phenomenon. This run-up phenomenon has been simulated by the use of computational fluid dynamic models. The numerical model (NS3) used in this study has been verified rigorously against...... a number of cases. Regular and freak waves have been generated in a numerical wave tank with agentle slope in order to address the study of the wave run-up on a circular cylinder. From the computational side it can be said that it is inexpensive. Furthermore, the comparison of the current numerical model...

Wave Run-Up on Offshore Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ramirez, Jorge Robert Rodriguez

to the cylinder. Based on appropriate analysis the collected data has been analysed with the stream function theory to obtain the relevant parameters for the use of the predicted wave run-up formula. An analytical approach has been pursued and solved for individual waves. Maximum run-up and 2% run-up were studied......This study has investigated the interaction of water waves with a circular structure known as wave run-up phenomenon. This run-up phenomenon has been simulated by the use of computational fluid dynamic models. The numerical model (NS3) used in this study has been verified rigorously against...... a number of cases. Regular and freak waves have been generated in a numerical wave tank with a gentle slope in order to address the study of the wave run-up on a circular cylinder. From the computational side it can be said that it is inexpensive. Furthermore, the comparison of the current numerical model...

The first mathematical models of dynamic meteorology: The Berlin prize contest of 1746

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Egger, J.; Pelkowski, J. [Muenchen Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.

2008-02-15

The first models of dynamic meteorology were published in 1747 as a result of a prize contest of the Academy of Prussia. The topic of the contest concerned the determination of the winds 'if the Earth were surrounded everywhere by an ocean'. D'Alembert formulated a shallow water model for the first time in his prize-winning contribution and attempted to calculate tidal motions within the fluid layers. Daniel Bernoulli viewed the atmosphere as a boundary layer wherein the winds rotating with the earth at low elevations have to adjust their motion to a solar atmosphere at large heights. He is first in applying the principle of angular momentum conservation in continuum geophysics when calculating the zonal wind profile. An account of the historical background of the contest is given, as well as some later reactions to d'Alembert's solution. (orig.)

Meteorology Online.

Science.gov (United States)

Kahl, Jonathan D. W.

2001-01-01

Describes an activity to learn about meteorology and weather using the internet. Discusses the National Weather Service (NWS) internet site www.weather.gov. Students examine maximum and minimum daily temperatures, wind speed, and direction. (SAH)

Uncertainty analysis of hydro-meteorological forecasts

OpenAIRE

Grythe, Karl Kristian; Gao, Yukun

2010-01-01

Masteroppgave i informasjons- og kommunikasjonsteknologi 2010 – Universitetet i Agder, Grimstad Meteorological and hydrological forecasts are very important to human’s life which concerns agriculture, industry, transport, etc. The Nordic hydropower industry use and develop hydrological forecasting models to make predictions of rivers steam flow. The quantity of incoming stream flow is important to the electricity production because excessive water in reservoir will cause flood ...

Does a more skilful meteorological input lead to a more skilful flood forecast at seasonal timescales?

Science.gov (United States)

Neumann, Jessica; Arnal, Louise; Magnusson, Linus; Cloke, Hannah

2017-04-01

Seasonal river flow forecasts are important for many aspects of the water sector including flood forecasting, water supply, hydropower generation and navigation. In addition to short term predictions, seasonal forecasts have the potential to realise higher benefits through more optimal and consistent decisions. Their operational use however, remains a challenge due to uncertainties posed by the initial hydrologic conditions (e.g. soil moisture, groundwater levels) and seasonal climate forcings (mainly forecasts of precipitation and temperature), leading to a decrease in skill with increasing lead times. Here we present a stakeholder-led case study for the Thames catchment (UK), currently being undertaken as part of the H2020 IMPREX project. The winter of 2013-14 was the wettest on record in the UK; driven by 12 major Atlantic depressions, the Thames catchment was subject to compound (concurrent) flooding from fluvial and groundwater sources. Focusing on the 2013-14 floods, this study aims to see whether increased skill in meteorological input translates through to more accurate forecasting of compound flood events at seasonal timescales in the Thames catchment. An earlier analysis of the ECMWF System 4 (S4) seasonal meteorological forecasts revealed that it did not skilfully forecast the extreme event of winter 2013-14. This motivated the implementation of an atmospheric experiment by the ECMWF to force the S4 to more accurately represent the low-pressure weather conditions prevailing in winter 2013-14 [1]. Here, we used both the standard and the "improved" S4 seasonal meteorological forecasts to force the EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) LISFLOOD hydrological model. Both hydrological forecasts were started on the 1st of November 2013 and run for 4 months of lead time to capture the peak of the 2013-14 flood event. Comparing the seasonal hydrological forecasts produced with both meteorological forcing data will enable us to assess how the improved meteorology

Epicurean Meteorology: Sources, method, scope and organization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bakker, F.A.

2016-01-01

In Epicurean Meteorology Frederik Bakker discusses the meteorology as laid out by Epicurus (341-270 BCE) and Lucretius (1st century BCE). Although in scope and organization their ideas are clearly rooted in the Peripatetic tradition, their meteorology sets itself apart from this tradition by its

Dynamic sensitivity analysis of long running landslide models through basis set expansion and meta-modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Rohmer, Jeremy

2016-04-01

Predicting the temporal evolution of landslides is typically supported by numerical modelling. Dynamic sensitivity analysis aims at assessing the influence of the landslide properties on the time-dependent predictions (e.g., time series of landslide displacements). Yet two major difficulties arise: 1. Global sensitivity analysis require running the landslide model a high number of times (> 1000), which may become impracticable when the landslide model has a high computation time cost (> several hours); 2. Landslide model outputs are not scalar, but function of time, i.e. they are n-dimensional vectors with n usually ranging from 100 to 1000. In this article, I explore the use of a basis set expansion, such as principal component analysis, to reduce the output dimensionality to a few components, each of them being interpreted as a dominant mode of variation in the overall structure of the temporal evolution. The computationally intensive calculation of the Sobol' indices for each of these components are then achieved through meta-modelling, i.e. by replacing the landslide model by a "costless-to-evaluate" approximation (e.g., a projection pursuit regression model). The methodology combining "basis set expansion - meta-model - Sobol' indices" is then applied to the La Frasse landslide to investigate the dynamic sensitivity analysis of the surface horizontal displacements to the slip surface properties during the pore pressure changes. I show how to extract information on the sensitivity of each main modes of temporal behaviour using a limited number (a few tens) of long running simulations. In particular, I identify the parameters, which trigger the occurrence of a turning point marking a shift between a regime of low values of landslide displacements and one of high values.

Meteorological Summaries

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Multi-year summaries of one or more meteorological elements at a station or in a state. Primarily includes Form 1078, a United States Weather Bureau form designed...

Medical Meteorology: the Relationship between Meteorological Parameters (Humidity, Rainfall, Wind, and Temperature and Brucellosis in Zanjan Province

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yousefali Abedini

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Brucellosis (Malta fever is a major contagious zoonotic disease, with economic and public health importance. Methods To assess the effect of meteorological (temperature, rainfall, humidity, and wind and climate parameters on incidence of brucellosis, brucellosis distribution and meteorological zoning maps of Zanjan Province were prepared using Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW and Kriging technique in Arc GIS medium. Zoning maps of mean temperature, rainfall, humidity, and wind were compared to brucellosis distribution maps. Results: Correlation test showed no relationship between the mean number of patients with brucellosis and any of the four meteorological parameters. Conclusion: It seems that in Zanjan province there is no correlation between brucellosis and meteorological parameters.

Technology and Meteorology. An Action Research Paper.

Science.gov (United States)

Taggart, Raymond F.

Meteorology, the science of weather and weather conditions, has traditionally been taught via textbook and rote demonstration. This study was intended to determine to what degree utilizing technology in the study of meteorology improves students' attitudes towards science and to measure to what extent technology in meteorology increases…

Improved Meteorological Input for Atmospheric Release Decision support Systems and an Integrated LES Modeling System for Atmospheric Dispersion of Toxic Agents: Homeland Security Applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arnold, E; Simpson, M; Larsen, S; Gash, J; Aluzzi, F; Lundquist, J; Sugiyama, G

2010-04-26

When hazardous material is accidently or intentionally released into the atmosphere, emergency response organizations look to decision support systems (DSSs) to translate contaminant information provided by atmospheric models into effective decisions to protect the public and emergency responders and to mitigate subsequent consequences. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS)-led Interagency Modeling and Atmospheric Assessment Center (IMAAC) is one of the primary DSSs utilized by emergency management organizations. IMAAC is responsible for providing 'a single piont for the coordination and dissemination of Federal dispersion modeling and hazard prediction products that represent the Federal position' during actual or potential incidents under the National Response Plan. The Department of Energy's (DOE) National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC), locatec at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), serves as the primary operations center of the IMAAC. A key component of atmospheric release decision support systems is meteorological information - models and data of winds, turbulence, and other atmospheric boundary-layer parameters. The accuracy of contaminant predictions is strongly dependent on the quality of this information. Therefore, the effectiveness of DSSs can be enhanced by improving the meteorological options available to drive atmospheric transport and fate models. The overall goal of this project was to develop and evaluate new meteorological modeling capabilities for DSSs based on the use of NASA Earth-science data sets in order to enhance the atmospheric-hazard information provided to emergency managers and responders. The final report describes the LLNL contributions to this multi-institutional effort. LLNL developed an approach to utilize NCAR meteorological predictions using NASA MODIS data for the New York City (NYC) region and demonstrated the potential impact of the use of different data sources and data

Vegetation pattern of Istanbul from the Landsat data and the relationship with meteorological parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zafer Aslan

Full Text Available This paper discusses the preliminary results of a study on the vegetation pattern and its relationship with meteorological parameters in and around Istanbul. The study covers an area of over 6800 km² consisting of urban and suburban centers, and uses the visible and near-infrared bands of Landsat. The spatial variation of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI and meteorological parameters such as sensible heat flux, momentum flux, relative humidity, moist static energy, rainfall rate and temperature have been investigated based on observations in ten stations in the European (Thracian and Anatolian parts of Istanbul. NDVI values have been evaluated from the Landsat data for a single day, viz. 24 October 1986, using ERDAS in ten different classes. The simultaneous spatial variations of sensible heat and momentum fluxes have been computed from the wind and temperature profiles using the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory. The static energy variations are based on the surface meteorological observations. There is very good correlation between NDVI and rainfall rate. Good correlation also exists between: NDVI and relative humidity; NDVI, sensible heat flux and relative humidity; NDVI, momentum flux and emissivity; and NDVI, sensible heat flux and emissivity. The study suggests that the momentum flux has only marginal impact on NDVI. Due to rapid urbanization,the coastal belt is characterized by reduced NDVI compared to the interior areas, suggesting that thermodynamic discontinuities considerably influence the vegetation pattern. This study is useful for the investigation of small-scale circulation models, especially in urban and suburban areas where differential heating leads to the formation of heat islands. In the long run, such studies on a global scale are vital to gain accurate, timely information on the distribution of vegetation on the earth's surface. This may lead to an understanding of how changes in land cover

Vegetation pattern of Istanbul from the Landsat data and the relationship with meteorological parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z. Aslan

1994-05-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses the preliminary results of a study on the vegetation pattern and its relationship with meteorological parameters in and around Istanbul. The study covers an area of over 6800 km2 consisting of urban and suburban centers, and uses the visible and near-infrared bands of Landsat. The spatial variation of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI and meteorological parameters such as sensible heat flux, momentum flux, relative humidity, moist static energy, rainfall rate and temperature have been investigated based on observations in ten stations in the European (Thracian and Anatolian parts of Istanbul. NDVI values have been evaluated from the Landsat data for a single day, viz. 24 October 1986, using ERDAS in ten different classes. The simultaneous spatial variations of sensible heat and momentum fluxes have been computed from the wind and temperature profiles using the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory. The static energy variations are based on the surface meteorological observations. There is very good correlation between NDVI and rainfall rate. Good correlation also exists between: NDVI and relative humidity; NDVI, sensible heat flux and relative humidity; NDVI, momentum flux and emissivity; and NDVI, sensible heat flux and emissivity. The study suggests that the momentum flux has only marginal impact on NDVI. Due to rapid urbanization,the coastal belt is characterized by reduced NDVI compared to the interior areas, suggesting that thermodynamic discontinuities considerably influence the vegetation pattern. This study is useful for the investigation of small-scale circulation models, especially in urban and suburban areas where differential heating leads to the formation of heat islands. In the long run, such studies on a global scale are vital to gain accurate, timely information on the distribution of vegetation on the earth's surface. This may lead to an understanding of how changes in land cover affect phenomena as

Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Film

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The United States Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Operational Linescan System (OLS) is a polar orbiting meteorological sensor with two...

A conceptual framework to model long-run qualitative change in the energy system

OpenAIRE

Ebersberger, Bernd

2004-01-01

A conceptual framework to model long-run qualitative change in the energy system / A. Pyka, B. Ebersberger, H. Hanusch. - In: Evolution and economic complexity / ed. J. Stanley Metcalfe ... - Cheltenham [u.a.] : Elgar, 2004. - S. 191-213

A comparative study of the response of modeled non-drizzling stratocumulus to meteorological and aerosol perturbations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. L. Petters

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The impact of changes in aerosol and cloud droplet concentration (Na and Nd on the radiative forcing of stratocumulus-topped boundary layers (STBLs has been widely studied. How these impacts compare to those due to variations in meteorological context has not been investigated in a systematic fashion for non-drizzling overcast stratocumulus. In this study we examine the impact of observed variations in meteorological context and aerosol state on daytime, non-drizzling overcast stratiform evolution, and determine how resulting changes in cloud properties compare. Using large-eddy simulation (LES we create a model base case of daytime southeast Pacific coastal stratocumulus, spanning a portion of the diurnal cycle (early morning to near noon and constrained by observations taken during the VOCALS (VAMOS Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Study field campaign. We perturb aerosol and meteorological properties around this base case to investigate the stratocumulus response. We determine perturbations in the cloud top jumps in potential temperature θ and total water mixing ratio qt from ECMWF Re-analysis Interim data, and use a set of Nd values spanning the observable range. To determine the cloud response to these meteorological and aerosol perturbations, we compute changes in liquid water path (LWP, bulk optical depth (τ and cloud radiative forcing (CRF. We find that realistic variations in the thermodynamic jump properties can elicit a response in the cloud properties of τ and shortwave (SW CRF that are on the same order of magnitude as the response found due to realistic changes in aerosol state (i.e Nd. In response to increases in Nd, the cloud layer in the base case thinned due to increases in evaporative cooling and entrainment rate. This cloud thinning somewhat mitigates the increase in τ resulting from increases in Nd. On the other hand, variations in θ and qt jumps did not substantially modify Nd. The cloud layer thickens in response to an increase

Utilization of Human-Like Pelvic Rotation for Running Robot

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takuya eOtani

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The spring loaded inverted pendulum (SLIP is used to model human running. It is based on a characteristic feature of human running, in which the linear-spring-like motion of the standing leg is produced by the joint stiffness of the knee and ankle. Although this model is widely used in robotics, it does not include human-like pelvic motion. In this study, we show that the pelvis actually contributes to the increase in jumping force and absorption of landing impact. On the basis of this finding, we propose a new model, SLIP2 (spring loaded inverted pendulum with pelvis, to improve running in humanoid robots. The model is composed of a body mass, a pelvis, and leg springs, and, it can control its springs while running by use of pelvic movement in the frontal plane. To achieve running motions, we developed a running control system that includes a pelvic oscillation controller to attain control over jumping power and a landing placement controller to adjust the running speed. We also developed a new running robot by using the SLIP2 model and performed hopping and running experiments to evaluate the model. The developed robot could accomplish hopping motions only by pelvic movement. The results also established that the difference between the pelvic rotational phase and the oscillation phase of the vertical mass displacement affects the jumping force. In addition, the robot demonstrated the ability to run with a foot placement controller depending on the reference running speed.

Are There Long-Run Effects of the Minimum Wage?

Science.gov (United States)

Sorkin, Isaac

2015-04-01

An empirical consensus suggests that there are small employment effects of minimum wage increases. This paper argues that these are short-run elasticities. Long-run elasticities, which may differ from short-run elasticities, are policy relevant. This paper develops a dynamic industry equilibrium model of labor demand. The model makes two points. First, long-run regressions have been misinterpreted because even if the short- and long-run employment elasticities differ, standard methods would not detect a difference using US variation. Second, the model offers a reconciliation of the small estimated short-run employment effects with the commonly found pass-through of minimum wage increases to product prices.

Extreme meteorological conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Altinger de Schwarzkopf, M.L.

1983-01-01

Different meteorological variables which may reach significant extreme values, such as the windspeed and, in particular, its occurrence through tornadoes and hurricanes that necesarily incide and wich must be taken into account at the time of nuclear power plants' installation, are analyzed. For this kind of study, it is necessary to determine the basic phenomenum of design. Two criteria are applied to define the basic values of design for extreme meteorological variables. The first one determines the expected extreme value: it is obtained from analyzing the recurence of the phenomenum in a convened period of time, wich may be generally of 50 years. The second one determines the extreme value of low probability, taking into account the nuclear power plant's operating life -f.ex. 25 years- and considering, during said lapse, the occurrence probabilities of extreme meteorological phenomena. The values may be determined either by the deterministic method, which is based on the acknowledgement of the fundamental physical characteristics of the phenomena or by the probabilistic method, that aims to the analysis of historical statistical data. Brief comments are made on the subject in relation to the Argentine Republic area. (R.J.S.) [es

Western diet increases wheel running in mice selectively bred for high voluntary wheel running.

Science.gov (United States)

Meek, T H; Eisenmann, J C; Garland, T

2010-06-01

Mice from a long-term selective breeding experiment for high voluntary wheel running offer a unique model to examine the contributions of genetic and environmental factors in determining the aspects of behavior and metabolism relevant to body-weight regulation and obesity. Starting with generation 16 and continuing through to generation 52, mice from the four replicate high runner (HR) lines have run 2.5-3-fold more revolutions per day as compared with four non-selected control (C) lines, but the nature of this apparent selection limit is not understood. We hypothesized that it might involve the availability of dietary lipids. Wheel running, food consumption (Teklad Rodent Diet (W) 8604, 14% kJ from fat; or Harlan Teklad TD.88137 Western Diet (WD), 42% kJ from fat) and body mass were measured over 1-2-week intervals in 100 males for 2 months starting 3 days after weaning. WD was obesogenic for both HR and C, significantly increasing both body mass and retroperitoneal fat pad mass, the latter even when controlling statistically for wheel-running distance and caloric intake. The HR mice had significantly less fat than C mice, explainable statistically by their greater running distance. On adjusting for body mass, HR mice showed higher caloric intake than C mice, also explainable by their higher running. Accounting for body mass and running, WD initially caused increased caloric intake in both HR and C, but this effect was reversed during the last four weeks of the study. Western diet had little or no effect on wheel running in C mice, but increased revolutions per day by as much as 75% in HR mice, mainly through increased time spent running. The remarkable stimulation of wheel running by WD in HR mice may involve fuel usage during prolonged endurance exercise and/or direct behavioral effects on motivation. Their unique behavioral responses to WD may render HR mice an important model for understanding the control of voluntary activity levels.

Verification of different forecasts of Hungarian Meteorological Service

Science.gov (United States)

Feher, B.

2009-09-01

In this paper I show the results of the forecasts made by the Hungarian Meteorological Service. I focus on the general short- and medium-range forecasts, which contains cloudiness, precipitation, wind speed and temperature for six regions of Hungary. I would like to show the results of some special forecasts as well, such as precipitation predictions which are made for the catchment area of Danube and Tisza rivers, and daily mean temperature predictions used by Hungarian energy companies. The product received by the user is made by the general forecaster, but these predictions are based on the ALADIN and ECMWF outputs. Because of these, the product of the forecaster and the models were also verified. Method like this is able to show us, which weather elements are more difficult to forecast or which regions have higher errors. During the verification procedure the basic errors (mean error, mean absolute error) are calculated. Precipitation amount is classified into five categories, and scores like POD, TS, PC,…etc. were defined by contingency table determined by these categories. The procedure runs fully automatically, all the things forecasters have to do is to print the daily result each morning. Beside the daily result, verification is also made for longer periods like week, month or year. Analyzing the results of longer periods we can say that the best predictions are made for the first few days, and precipitation forecasts are less good for mountainous areas, even, the scores of the forecasters sometimes are higher than the errors of the models. Since forecaster receive results next day, it can helps him/her to reduce mistakes and learn the weakness of the models. This paper contains the verification scores, their trends, the method by which these scores are calculated, and some case studies on worse forecasts.

Modern history of meteorological services with pictures for a century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-07-01

This book deals with modern history of meteorological services with pictures for a century. It is divided into twelve chapters, which mention meteorological services before the Joseon Dynasty period, meteorological observation about surface weather observation, aero logical observation, meteorological satellite, seismometry, observation on yellow dust, and observation on the falling of thunderbolt, weather forecast, meteorological telecommunication, education for weather, research for weather, promotion on weather, international cooperation, main events, special aid on meteorological services, meteorological disaster and the list of the offices for meteorological services.

Short-run and long-run dynamics of farm land allocation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arnberg, Søren; Hansen, Lars Gårn

2012-01-01

This study develops and estimates a dynamic multi-output model of farmers’ land allocation decisions that allows for the gradual adjustment of allocations that can result from crop rotation practices and quasi-fixed capital constraints. Estimation is based on micro-panel data from Danish farmers...... that include acreage, output, and variable input utilization at the crop level. Results indicate that there are substantial differences between the short-run and long-run land allocation behaviour of Danish farmers and that there are substantial differences in the time lags associated with different crops...

COMPARISON OF CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS RESULTS FROM TWO METHODS OF PROCESSING SITE METEOROLOGICAL DATA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

, D

2007-01-01

Consequence analysis to support documented safety analysis requires the use of one or more years of representative meteorological data for atmospheric transport and dispersion calculations. At minimum, the needed meteorological data for most atmospheric transport and dispersion models consist of hourly samples of wind speed and atmospheric stability class. Atmospheric stability is inferred from measured and/or observed meteorological data. Several methods exist to convert measured and observed meteorological data into atmospheric stability class data. In this paper, one year of meteorological data from a western Department of Energy (DOE) site is processed to determine atmospheric stability class using two methods. The method that is prescribed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for supporting licensing of nuclear power plants makes use of measurements of vertical temperature difference to determine atmospheric stability. Another method that is preferred by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) relies upon measurements of incoming solar radiation, vertical temperature gradient, and wind speed. Consequences are calculated and compared using the two sets of processed meteorological data from these two methods as input data into the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System 2 (MACCS2) code

Meteorological interpretation of transient LOD changes

Science.gov (United States)

Masaki, Y.

2008-04-01

The Earth’s spin rate is mainly changed by zonal winds. For example, seasonal changes in global atmospheric circulation and episodic changes accompanied with El Nĩ os are clearly detected n in the Length-of-day (LOD). Sub-global to regional meteorological phenomena can also change the wind field, however, their effects on the LOD are uncertain because such LOD signals are expected to be subtle and transient. In our previous study (Masaki, 2006), we introduced atmospheric pressure gradients in the upper atmosphere in order to obtain a rough picture of the meteorological features that can change the LOD. In this presentation, we compare one-year LOD data with meteorological elements (winds, temperature, pressure, etc.) and make an attempt to link transient LOD changes with sub-global meteorological phenomena.

The Design and Implementation of a Remote Fault Reasoning Diagnosis System for Meteorological Satellites Data Acquisition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhu Jie

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Under the background of the trouble shooting requirements of FENGYUN-3 (FY-3 meteorological satellites data acquisition in domestic and oversea ground stations, a remote fault reasoning diagnosis system is developed by Java 1.6 in eclipse 3.6 platform. The general framework is analyzed, the workflow is introduced. Based on the system, it can realize the remote and centralized monitoring of equipment running status in ground stations，triggering automatic fault diagnosis and rule based fault reasoning by parsing the equipment quality logs, generating trouble tickets and importing expert experience database, providing text and graphics query methods. Through the practical verification, the system can assist knowledge engineers in remote precise and rapid fault location with friendly graphical user interface, boost the fault diagnosis efficiency, enhance the remote monitoring ability of integrity operating control system. The system has a certain practical significance to improve reliability of FY-3 meteorological satellites data acquisition.

The design of the run Clever randomized trial: running volume, -intensity and running-related injuries.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramskov, Daniel; Nielsen, Rasmus Oestergaard; Sørensen, Henrik; Parner, Erik; Lind, Martin; Rasmussen, Sten

2016-04-23

Injury incidence and prevalence in running populations have been investigated and documented in several studies. However, knowledge about injury etiology and prevention is needed. Training errors in running are modifiable risk factors and people engaged in recreational running need evidence-based running schedules to minimize the risk of injury. The existing literature on running volume and running intensity and the development of injuries show conflicting results. This may be related to previously applied study designs, methods used to quantify the performed running and the statistical analysis of the collected data. The aim of the Run Clever trial is to investigate if a focus on running intensity compared with a focus on running volume in a running schedule influences the overall injury risk differently. The Run Clever trial is a randomized trial with a 24-week follow-up. Healthy recreational runners between 18 and 65 years and with an average of 1-3 running sessions per week the past 6 months are included. Participants are randomized into two intervention groups: Running schedule-I and Schedule-V. Schedule-I emphasizes a progression in running intensity by increasing the weekly volume of running at a hard pace, while Schedule-V emphasizes a progression in running volume, by increasing the weekly overall volume. Data on the running performed is collected by GPS. Participants who sustain running-related injuries are diagnosed by a diagnostic team of physiotherapists using standardized diagnostic criteria. The members of the diagnostic team are blinded. The study design, procedures and informed consent were approved by the Ethics Committee Northern Denmark Region (N-20140069). The Run Clever trial will provide insight into possible differences in injury risk between running schedules emphasizing either running intensity or running volume. The risk of sustaining volume- and intensity-related injuries will be compared in the two intervention groups using a competing

The Science Behind Moravian Meteorological Observations for Late-18th Century Labrador

Science.gov (United States)

Newell, Dianne; Lüdecke, Cornelia; Matiu, Michael; Menzel, Annette

2017-04-01

From the time they established their first shelter among the Inuit population of the northern coast of Labrador in 1771, the brethren of the Moravian Church began producing series of daily instrumental and qualitative meteorological observations of significance to science networks of the day (Macpherson, 1987, Demarée & Ogilvie, 2008). Contrary to what is understood, missionaries did not make these observations for their own purposes. Rather, they responded to requests from scientists who commissioned the data. Scientists also equipped these undertakings. The enlightened observers provided handwritten copies that were publicized in England and continental Europe by individuals and their philosophical and scientific institutions. This pattern of producing reliable records specifically for scientists was true for the 15-year span of Moravian meteorological observations for all 3 Labrador stations in the late 18th century; the 40-year span of records for 10 Moravian stations in Labrador and Greenland in the mid-19th century; and the observations from 5 Labrador stations commissioned for the 1st international Polar Year, 1882, and continuing for several decades afterward, and longer in the case of Nain. When Nain data is combined with that from the Canadian meteorological service, we have a relatively straight run from 1882 to 2015. In this paper, we examine the late-18th century Moravian meteorological observations for qualitative information of interest to modern scientific research. The daily entries comprise not only measurements of temperature and air pressure, but also other weather observations, such as wind direction, estimated wind speed, cloudiness, information which has already allowed us to begin tracking polar lows travelling from Labrador to Greenland across the Labrador Sea. The annual missionary reports of Moravians provide critical supplementary data identifying recurring local phenological events in nature, which offer an integrated signal of weather

Coupling of WRF meteorological model to WAM spectral wave model through sea surface roughness at the Balearic Sea: impact on wind and wave forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Tolosana-Delgado, R.; Soret, A.; Jorba, O.; Baldasano, J. M.; Sánchez-Arcilla, A.

2012-04-01

Meteorological models, like WRF, usually describe the earth surface characteristics by tables that are function of land-use. The roughness length (z0) is an example of such approach. However, over sea z0 is modeled by the Charnock (1955) relation, linking the surface friction velocity u*2 with the roughness length z0 of turbulent air flow, z0 = α-u2* g The Charnock coefficient α may be considered a measure of roughness. For the sea surface, WRF considers a constant roughness α = 0.0185. However, there is evidence that sea surface roughness should depend on wave energy (Donelan, 1982). Spectral wave models like WAM, model the evolution and propagation of wave energy as a function of wind, and include a richer sea surface roughness description. Coupling WRF and WAM is thus a common way to improve the sea surface roughness description of WRF. WAM is a third generation wave model, solving the equation of advection of wave energy subject to input/output terms of: wind growth, energy dissipation and resonant non-linear wave-wave interactions. Third generation models work on the spectral domain. WAM considers the Charnock coefficient α a complex yet known function of the total wind input term, which depends on the wind velocity and on the Charnock coefficient again. This is solved iteratively (Janssen et al., 1990). Coupling of meteorological and wave models through a common Charnock coefficient is operationally done in medium-range met forecasting systems (e.g., at ECMWF) though the impact of coupling for smaller domains is not yet clearly assessed (Warner et al, 2010). It is unclear to which extent the additional effort of coupling improves the local wind and wave fields, in comparison to the effects of other factors, like e.g. a better bathymetry and relief resolution, or a better circulation information which might have its influence on local-scale meteorological processes (local wind jets, local convection, daily marine wind regimes, etc.). This work, within the

Debris flow run-out simulation and analysis using a dynamic model

Science.gov (United States)

Melo, Raquel; van Asch, Theo; Zêzere, José L.

2018-02-01

Only two months after a huge forest fire occurred in the upper part of a valley located in central Portugal, several debris flows were triggered by intense rainfall. The event caused infrastructural and economic damage, although no lives were lost. The present research aims to simulate the run-out of two debris flows that occurred during the event as well as to calculate via back-analysis the rheological parameters and the excess rain involved. Thus, a dynamic model was used, which integrates surface runoff, concentrated erosion along the channels, propagation and deposition of flow material. Afterwards, the model was validated using 32 debris flows triggered during the same event that were not considered for calibration. The rheological and entrainment parameters obtained for the most accurate simulation were then used to perform three scenarios of debris flow run-out on the basin scale. The results were confronted with the existing buildings exposed in the study area and the worst-case scenario showed a potential inundation that may affect 345 buildings. In addition, six streams where debris flow occurred in the past and caused material damage and loss of lives were identified.

EVALUATION OF METEOROLOGICAL ALERT CHAIN IN CASTILLA Y LEÓN (SPAIN): How can the meteorological risk managers help researchers?

Science.gov (United States)

López, Laura; Guerrero-Higueras, Ángel Manuel; Sánchez, José Luis; Matía, Pedro; Ortiz de Galisteo, José Pablo; Rodríguez, Vicente; Lorente, José Manuel; Merino, Andrés; Hermida, Lucía; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Fernández-Manso, Oscar

2013-04-01

Evaluating the meteorological alert chain, or, how information is transmitted from the meteorological forecasters to the final users, passing through risk managers, is a useful tool that benefits all the links of the chain, especially the meteorology researchers and forecasters. In fact, the risk managers can help significantly to improve meteorological forecasts in different ways. Firstly, by pointing out the most appropriate type of meteorological format, and its characteristics when representing the meteorological information, consequently improving the interpretation of the already-existing forecasts. Secondly, by pointing out the specific predictive needs in their workplaces related to the type of significant meteorological parameters, temporal or spatial range necessary, meteorological products "custom-made" for each type of risk manager, etc. In order to carry out an evaluation of the alert chain in Castilla y León, we opted for the creation of a Panel of Experts made up of personnel specialized in risk management (Responsible for Protection Civil, Responsible for Alert Services and Hydrological Planning of Hydrographical Confederations, Responsible for highway maintenance, and management of fires, fundamentally). In creating this panel, a total of twenty online questions were evaluated, and the majority of the questions were multiple choice or open-ended. Some of the results show how the risk managers think that it would be interesting, or very interesting, to carry out environmental educational campaigns about the meteorological risks in Castilla y León. Another result is the elevated importance that the risk managers provide to the observation data in real-time (real-time of wind, lightning, relative humidity, combined indices of risk of avalanches, snowslides, index of fires due to convective activity, etc.) Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the Junta de Castilla y León for its financial support through the project LE220A11-2.

Analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft exhaust dispersion and deposition using a Lagrangian particle model.

Science.gov (United States)

Pecorari, Eliana; Mantovani, Alice; Franceschini, Chiara; Bassano, Davide; Palmeri, Luca; Rampazzo, Giancarlo

2016-01-15

The risk of air quality degradation is of considerable concern particularly for those airports that are located near urban areas. The ability to quantitatively predict the effects of air pollutants originated by airport operations is important for assessing air quality and the related impacts on human health. Current emission regulations have focused on local air quality in the proximity of airports. However, an integrated study should consider the effects of meteorological events, at both regional and local level, that can affect the dispersion and the deposition of exhausts. Rigorous scientific studies and extensive experimental data could contribute to the analysis of the impacts of airports expansion plans. This paper is focused on the analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft emission for the Marco Polo Airport in Venice. This is the most important international airport in the eastern part of the Po' Valley, one of the most polluted area in Europe. Air pollution is exacerbated by meteorology that is a combination of large and local scale effects that do not allow significant dispersion. Moreover, the airport is located near Venice, a city of noteworthy cultural and architectural relevance, and nearby the lagoon that hosts several areas of outstanding ecological importance at European level (Natura 2000 sites). Dispersion and deposit of the main aircraft exhausts (NOx, HC and CO) have been evaluated by using a Lagrangian particle model. Spatial and temporal aircraft exhaust dispersion has been analyzed for LTO cycle. Aircraft taxiing resulted to be the most impacting aircraft operation especially for the airport working area and its surroundings, however occasionally peaks may be observed even at high altitudes when cruise mode starts. Mixing height can affect concentrations more significantly than the concentrations in the exhausts themselves. An increase of HC and CO concentrations (15-50%) has been observed during specific meteorological events

HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR SUSTAINABLE LAND MANAGEMENT IN THE SINGKARAK BASIN, WEST SUMATRA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kasdi Subagyono

2008-11-01

Full Text Available Studi tentang karakteristik hidro-meteorologi telah dilakukan di wilayah danau Singkarak pada 2006-2007 dengan melibatkan partisipasi masyarakat. Stasiun iklim otomatis dan pengukur tinggi muka air otomatis dipasang untuk memonitor data hidrologi dan meteorologi di wilayah cekungan Singkarak. Data meteorologi dianalisa untuk mengetahui karakteristik iklim di wilayah sekitar danau. Model hidrologi GR4J dan H2U diaplikasikan untuk simulasi discharge dan untuk mengkarakterisasi proses hidrologi di wilayah danau. Simulasi model aliran divalidasi pada musim hujan. Alternatif pengelolaan lahan diformulasikan berdasarkan karakteristik hidrologi daerah aliran sungai di sekitar cekungan Singkarak. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa daerah tangkapan di sekitar danau Singkarak memiliki respon yang tinggi terhadap jumlah dan intensitas hujan. Hidrograp menunjukkan peningkatan yang tajam dari discharge segera setelah curah hujan mulai dan menurun relative lamban ketika curah hujan berhenti. Untuk pengelolaan lahan secara berkelanjutan di wilayah danau Singkarak, konservasi lahan dan air harus menjadi prioritas utama. Wanatani dapat diimplementasikan sebagai alternatif sistem pertanaman oleh penduduk lokal. Karena potensi kelangkaan air bisa terjadi pada periode kering, panen air dan konservasi air dapat diterapkan sebagai opsi yang dapat dikombinasikan dalam sistem pengelolaan lahan.   Hydro-meteorological processes of the Singkarak basin has been studied involving participatory of local community in 2006-2007. Automatic weather station (AWS and automatic water level recorder (AWLR were installed to record meteorological and hydrological data within the Singkarak Basin. Meteorological data was analyzed to understand the meteorological characteristic surrounding the Basin area. Model of GR4J and H2U were used to simulated discharge and to understand the hydrological processes within the basin. The validation of simulated discharge was done in the wet season

Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kock, A.

1996-05-01

The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies.

Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kock, A.

1996-05-01

The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies

Modeling Occurrence of Urban Mosquitos Based on Land Use Types and Meteorological Factors in Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yong-Su Kwon

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Mosquitoes are a public health concern because they are vectors of pathogen, which cause human-related diseases. It is well known that the occurrence of mosquitoes is highly influenced by meteorological conditions (e.g., temperature and precipitation and land use, but there are insufficient studies quantifying their impacts. Therefore, three analytical methods were applied to determine the relationships between urban mosquito occurrence, land use type, and meteorological factors: cluster analysis based on land use types; principal component analysis (PCA based on mosquito occurrence; and three prediction models, support vector machine (SVM, classification and regression tree (CART, and random forest (RF. We used mosquito data collected at 12 sites from 2011 to 2012. Mosquito abundance was highest from August to September in both years. The monitoring sites were differentiated into three clusters based on differences in land use type such as culture and sport areas, inland water, artificial grasslands, and traffic areas. These clusters were well reflected in PCA ordinations, indicating that mosquito occurrence was highly influenced by land use types. Lastly, the RF represented the highest predictive power for mosquito occurrence and temperature-related factors were the most influential. Our study will contribute to effective control and management of mosquito occurrences.

Capitalizing on Citizen Science Data for Validating Models and Generating Hypotheses Describing Meteorological Drivers of Mosquito-Borne Disease Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Paull, S.; Anyamba, A.; Soebiyanto, R. P.

2017-12-01

Temperature and precipitation are important drivers of mosquito population dynamics, and a growing set of models have been proposed to characterize these relationships. Validation of these models, and development of broader theories across mosquito species and regions could nonetheless be improved by comparing observations from a global dataset of mosquito larvae with satellite-based measurements of meteorological variables. Citizen science data can be particularly useful for two such aspects of research into the meteorological drivers of mosquito populations: i) Broad-scale validation of mosquito distribution models and ii) Generation of quantitative hypotheses regarding changes to mosquito abundance and phenology across scales. The recently released GLOBE Observer Mosquito Habitat Mapper (GO-MHM) app engages citizen scientists in identifying vector taxa, mapping breeding sites and decommissioning non-natural habitats, and provides a potentially useful new tool for validating mosquito ubiquity projections based on the analysis of remotely sensed environmental data. Our early work with GO-MHM data focuses on two objectives: validating citizen science reports of Aedes aegypti distribution through comparison with accepted scientific data sources, and exploring the relationship between extreme temperature and precipitation events and subsequent observations of mosquito larvae. Ultimately the goal is to develop testable hypotheses regarding the shape and character of this relationship between mosquito species and regions.

The Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) - Naval

Science.gov (United States)

Meteorology Oceanography Ice You are here: Home › FNMOC FNMOC Logo FNMOC Navigation Meteorology Products Oceanography Products Tropical Applications Climatology and Archived Data Info The Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) The Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC

Minimization of required model runs in the Random Mixing approach to inverse groundwater flow and transport modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Hoerning, Sebastian; Bardossy, Andras; du Plessis, Jaco

2017-04-01

Most geostatistical inverse groundwater flow and transport modelling approaches utilize a numerical solver to minimize the discrepancy between observed and simulated hydraulic heads and/or hydraulic concentration values. The optimization procedure often requires many model runs, which for complex models lead to long run times. Random Mixing is a promising new geostatistical technique for inverse modelling. The method is an extension of the gradual deformation approach. It works by finding a field which preserves the covariance structure and maintains observed hydraulic conductivities. This field is perturbed by mixing it with new fields that fulfill the homogeneous conditions. This mixing is expressed as an optimization problem which aims to minimize the difference between the observed and simulated hydraulic heads and/or concentration values. To preserve the spatial structure, the mixing weights must lie on the unit hyper-sphere. We present a modification to the Random Mixing algorithm which significantly reduces the number of model runs required. The approach involves taking n equally spaced points on the unit circle as weights for mixing conditional random fields. Each of these mixtures provides a solution to the forward model at the conditioning locations. For each of the locations the solutions are then interpolated around the circle to provide solutions for additional mixing weights at very low computational cost. The interpolated solutions are used to search for a mixture which maximally reduces the objective function. This is in contrast to other approaches which evaluate the objective function for the n mixtures and then interpolate the obtained values. Keeping the mixture on the unit circle makes it easy to generate equidistant sampling points in the space; however, this means that only two fields are mixed at a time. Once the optimal mixture for two fields has been found, they are combined to form the input to the next iteration of the algorithm. This

A hydro-meteorological model chain to assess the influence of natural variability and impacts of climate change on extreme events and propose optimal water management

Science.gov (United States)

von Trentini, F.; Willkofer, F.; Wood, R. R.; Schmid, F. J.; Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

The ClimEx project (Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec) focuses on the effects of climate change on hydro-meteorological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. Therefore, a hydro-meteorological model chain is applied. It employs high performance computing capacity of the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre facility SuperMUC to dynamically downscale 50 members of the Global Circulation Model CanESM2 over European and Eastern North American domains using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (RCM) CRCM5. Over Europe, the unique single model ensemble is conjointly analyzed with the latest information provided through the CORDEX-initiative, to better assess the influence of natural climate variability and climatic change in the dynamics of extreme events. Furthermore, these 50 members of a single RCM will enhance extreme value statistics (extreme return periods) by exploiting the available 1500 model years for the reference period from 1981 to 2010. Hence, the RCM output is applied to drive the process based, fully distributed, and deterministic hydrological model WaSiM in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. WaSiM and the large ensemble are further used to derive a variety of hydro-meteorological patterns leading to severe flood events. A tool for virtual perfect prediction shall provide a combination of optimal lead time and management strategy to mitigate certain flood events following these patterns.

Development of the Next Generation Air Quality Modeling System (20th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA)

Science.gov (United States)

A next generation air quality modeling system is being developed at the U.S. EPA to enable modeling of air quality from global to regional to (eventually) local scales. We envision that the system will have three configurations: 1. Global meteorology with seamless mesh refinemen...

Transport of radionuclides in the atmosphere during complex meteorological conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antic, D.; Telenta, B.

1991-01-01

Radionuclides from various sources (nuclear and fossil fuel power plants, nuclear facilities, medical facilities, etc.) are being released to the atmosphere. The meteorological conditions determine the atmospheric turbulence, dispersion, and removal processes of the radionuclides. A two-dimensional version of the cloud model based on the Klemp-Wilhelmson dynamic and Lin et al.'s microphysics and thermodynamics has been adapted and used to simulate the transport of radionuclides emitted from a power plant or other source to the atmosphere. Calculations of the trajectories and radii for a few puffs are included in this paper. These numerical investigations show that the presented model can be used for the transport simulation of radionuclides and for the assessment of the radiological impact of power plants and other sources in safety assessments and comparative studies. Because it can simulate puff trajectories, this model is especially valuable in the presence of complex meteorological conditions

Describing the direct and indirect radiative effects of atmospheric aerosols over Europe by using coupled meteorology-chemistry simulations: a contribution from the AQMEII-Phase II exercise

Science.gov (United States)

Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Balzarini, Alessandra; Baró, Rocío; Curci, Gabriele; Forkel, Renate; Hirtl, Marcus; Honzak, Luka; Langer, Matthias; Pérez, Juan L.; Pirovano, Guido; San José, Roberto; Tuccella, Paolo; Werhahn, Johannes; Zabkar, Rahela

2014-05-01

The study of the response of the aerosol levels in the atmosphere to a changing climate and how this affects the radiative budget of the Earth (direct, semi-direct and indirect effects) is an essential topic to build confidence on climate science, since these feedbacks involve the largest uncertainties nowadays. Air quality-climate interactions (AQCI) are, therefore, a key, but uncertain contributor to the anthropogenic forcing that remains poorly understood. To build confidence in the AQCI studies, regional-scale integrated meteorology-atmospheric chemistry models (i.e., models with on-line chemistry) that include detailed treatment of aerosol life cycle and aerosol impacts on radiation (direct effects) and clouds (indirect effects) are in demand. In this context, the main objective of this contribution is the study and definition of the uncertainties in the climate-chemistry-aerosol-cloud-radiation system associated to the direct radiative forcing and the indirect effect caused by aerosols over Europe, using an ensemble of fully-coupled meteorology-chemistry model simulations with the WRF-Chem model run under the umbrella of AQMEII-Phase 2 international initiative. Simulations were performed for Europe for the entire year 2010. According to the common simulation strategy, the year was simulated as a sequence of 2-day time slices. For better comparability, the seven groups applied the same grid spacing of 23 km and shared common processing of initial and boundary conditions as well as anthropogenic and fire emissions. With exception of a simulation with different cloud microphysics, identical physics options were chosen while the chemistry options were varied. Two model set-ups will be considered here: one sub-ensemble of simulations not taking into account any aerosol feedbacks (the baseline case) and another sub-ensemble of simulations which differs from the former by the inclusion of aerosol-radiation feedback. The existing differences for meteorological

Weather or Not To Teach Junior High Meteorology.

Science.gov (United States)

Knorr, Thomas P.

1984-01-01

Presents a technique for teaching meteorology allowing students to observe and analyze consecutive weather maps and relate local conditions; a model illustrating the three-dimensional nature of the atmosphere is employed. Instructional methods based on studies of daily weather maps to trace systems sweeping across the United States are discussed.…

Virtual Meteorological Center

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marius Brinzila

2007-10-01

Full Text Available A virtual meteorological center, computer based with Internet possibility transmission of the information is presented. Circumstance data is collected with logging field meteorological station. The station collects and automatically save data about the temperature in the air, relative humidity, pressure, wind speed and wind direction, rain gauge, solar radiation and air quality. Also can perform sensors test, analyze historical data and evaluate statistical information. The novelty of the system is that it can publish data over the Internet using LabVIEW Web Server capabilities and deliver a video signal to the School TV network. Also the system performs redundant measurement of temperature and humidity and was improved using new sensors and an original signal conditioning module.

Meteorological Data Analysis Using MapReduce

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Fang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In the atmospheric science, the scale of meteorological data is massive and growing rapidly. K-means is a fast and available cluster algorithm which has been used in many fields. However, for the large-scale meteorological data, the traditional K-means algorithm is not capable enough to satisfy the actual application needs efficiently. This paper proposes an improved MK-means algorithm (MK-means based on MapReduce according to characteristics of large meteorological datasets. The experimental results show that MK-means has more computing ability and scalability.

Study on a new meteorological sampling scheme developed for the OSCAAR code system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Xinhe; Tomita, Kenichi; Homma, Toshimitsu

2002-03-01

One important step in Level-3 Probabilistic Safety Assessment is meteorological sequence sampling, on which the previous studies were mainly related to code systems using the straight-line plume model and more efforts are needed for those using the trajectory puff model such as the OSCAAR code system. This report describes the development of a new meteorological sampling scheme for the OSCAAR code system that explicitly considers population distribution. A group of principles set for the development of this new sampling scheme includes completeness, appropriate stratification, optimum allocation, practicability and so on. In this report, discussions are made about the procedures of the new sampling scheme and its application. The calculation results illustrate that although it is quite difficult to optimize stratification of meteorological sequences based on a few environmental parameters the new scheme do gather the most inverse conditions in a single subset of meteorological sequences. The size of this subset may be as small as a few dozens, so that the tail of a complementary cumulative distribution function is possible to remain relatively static in different trials of the probabilistic consequence assessment code. (author)

Tsunami generation, propagation, and run-up with a high-order Boussinesq model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fuhrman, David R.; Madsen, Per A.

2009-01-01

In this work we extend a high-order Boussinesq-type (finite difference) model, capable of simulating waves out to wavenumber times depth kh landslide-induced tsunamis. The extension is straight forward, requiring only....... The Boussinesq-type model is then used to simulate numerous tsunami-type events generated from submerged landslides, in both one and two horizontal dimensions. The results again compare well against previous experiments and/or numerical simulations. The new extension compliments recently developed run...

Modeling the Effects of Meteorological Conditions on the Neutron Flux

Science.gov (United States)

2017-05-22

about 2% between day and night on a given day [2]. In the 1960s, the launch of satellites allowed scientists to measure the sun’s cosmic rays outside...hour, a 20% variation, over five months of data collection with large variation between days . Meteorological data were collected with two commercially...contributes to the formation of the neutron flux. To account for the earth’s magnetic field, scientists have done extensive three-dimensional analysis

Overview of new GNSS tropospheric products for GNSS-meteorology and their assessment at Geodetic Observatory Pecny (CZ)

Science.gov (United States)

Dousa, J.; Vaclavovic, P.; Gyori, G.

2012-12-01

Geodetic Observatory Pecný (GOP) has a long-term experience in the estimation of precise tropospheric parameters from GNSS permanent stations, in particular under the limited timelines of near real time. More than a decade, the GOP zenith total delays (ZTD) contributed to various projects in Europe (COST-716, TOUGH, E-GVAP, E-GVAP II) and the operational ZTD hourly updated product flows via the meteorological observation exchange network - GTS - to the end users worldwide. Currently, the GOP regional ZTD product is operationally assimilated in Météo France and UK MetOffice at least and further exploited in various ways at many other meteorological institutions. New developments at GOP over last three years consist of a) implementation and assessment of the global hourly ZTD product of about 170 stations, b) implementation of routine multi-GNSS (GPS+GLONASS) ZTD European product, and c) implementation of ultra-fast/real-time ZTD product. The GOP global ZTD product has been implemented on request of the meteorological institutions running global numerical weather forecasting models. The global ZTD product was seriously evaluated over ten months (Oct 2009 - Aug 2011) when compared to reprocessed EUREF and IGS ZTDs, radiosondes and ZTDs derived from UK MetOffice's global numerical weather model. After the evaluation (and on special request of UK MetOffice) the product has been switched from testing to operational status within the framework of the EUMETNET EIG GPS Water Vapour Programme (E-GVAP) and officially disseminated via the GTS network. The GOP multi-GNSS ZTD solution has been tested since 2009 shortly after developing GOP ultra-rapid GPS+GLONASS orbits for the International GNSS Service (IGS). A specific bias of mean value 1.5 mm was identified between GPS- and GLONASS-only ZTD at that time, and relation to the IGS05 antenna phase centre offset and variation models (PCO+PCV) identified. Consequently, the implementation of a routine operation has been done

Women in Meteorology.

Science.gov (United States)

Lemone, Margaret A.; Waukau, Patricia L.

1982-11-01

The names of 927 women who are or have been active in meteorology or closely related fields have been obtained from various sources. Of these women, at least 500 are presently active. An estimated 4-5% of the total number of Ph.D.s in meteorology are awarded to women. About 10% of those receiving B.S. and M.S. degrees are women.The work patterns, accomplishments, and salaries of employed women meteorologists have been summarized from 330 responses to questionnaires, as functions of age, family status, part- or full-time working status, and employing institutions. It was found that women meteorologists holding Ph.D.s are more likely than their male counterparts to be employed by universities. As increasing number of women were employed in operational meteorology, although few of them were married and fewer still responsible for children. Several women were employed by private industry and some had advanced into managerial positions, although at the present time, such positions remain out of the reach of most women.The subjective and objective effects of several gender-related factors have been summarized from the comments and responses to the questionnaires. The primary obstacles to advancement were found to be part-time work and the responsibility for children. Part-time work was found to have a clearly negative effect on salary increase as a function of age. prejudicated discrimination and rules negatively affecting women remain important, especially to the older women, and affirmative action programs are generally seen as beneficial.Surprisingly, in contrast to the experience of women in other fields of science, women Ph.D.s in meteorology earn salaries comparable of their employment in government or large corporations and universities where there are strong affirmative action programs and above-average salaries. Based on the responses to the questionnaire, the small size of the meteorological community is also a factor, enabling women to become recognized

Addressing Thermal Model Run Time Concerns of the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope using Astrophysics Focused Telescope Assets (WFIRST-AFTA)

Science.gov (United States)

Peabody, Hume; Guerrero, Sergio; Hawk, John; Rodriguez, Juan; McDonald, Carson; Jackson, Cliff

2016-01-01

The Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope using Astrophysics Focused Telescope Assets (WFIRST-AFTA) utilizes an existing 2.4 m diameter Hubble sized telescope donated from elsewhere in the federal government for near-infrared sky surveys and Exoplanet searches to answer crucial questions about the universe and dark energy. The WFIRST design continues to increase in maturity, detail, and complexity with each design cycle leading to a Mission Concept Review and entrance to the Mission Formulation Phase. Each cycle has required a Structural-Thermal-Optical-Performance (STOP) analysis to ensure the design can meet the stringent pointing and stability requirements. As such, the models have also grown in size and complexity leading to increased model run time. This paper addresses efforts to reduce the run time while still maintaining sufficient accuracy for STOP analyses. A technique was developed to identify slews between observing orientations that were sufficiently different to warrant recalculation of the environmental fluxes to reduce the total number of radiation calculation points. The inclusion of a cryocooler fluid loop in the model also forced smaller time-steps than desired, which greatly increases the overall run time. The analysis of this fluid model required mitigation to drive the run time down by solving portions of the model at different time scales. Lastly, investigations were made into the impact of the removal of small radiation couplings on run time and accuracy. Use of these techniques allowed the models to produce meaningful results within reasonable run times to meet project schedule deadlines.

Modeling the Short-Term Effect of Traffic and Meteorology on Air Pollution in Turin with Generalized Additive Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pancrazio Bertaccini

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Vehicular traffic plays an important role in atmospheric pollution and can be used as one of the key predictors in air-quality forecasting models. The models that can account for the role of traffic are especially valuable in urban areas, where high pollutant concentrations are often observed during particular times of day (rush hour and year (winter. In this paper, we develop a generalized additive models approach to analyze the behavior of concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2, and particulate matter (PM10, collected at the environmental monitoring stations distributed throughout the city of Turin, Italy, from December 2003 to April 2005. We describe nonlinear relationships between predictors and pollutants, that are adjusted for unobserved time-varying confounders. We examine several functional forms for the traffic variable and find that a simple form can often provide adequate modeling power. Our analysis shows that there is a saturation effect of traffic on NO2, while such saturation is less evident in models linking traffic to PM10 behavior, having adjusted for meteorological covariates. Moreover, we consider the proposed models separately by seasons and highlight similarities and differences in the predictors’ partial effects. Finally, we show how forecasting can help in evaluating traffic regulation policies.

A globally calibrated scheme for generating daily meteorology from monthly statistics: Global-WGEN (GWGEN) v1.0

Science.gov (United States)

Sommer, Philipp S.; Kaplan, Jed O.

2017-10-01

While a wide range of Earth system processes occur at daily and even subdaily timescales, many global vegetation and other terrestrial dynamics models historically used monthly meteorological forcing both to reduce computational demand and because global datasets were lacking. Recently, dynamic land surface modeling has moved towards resolving daily and subdaily processes, and global datasets containing daily and subdaily meteorology have become available. These meteorological datasets, however, cover only the instrumental era of the last approximately 120 years at best, are subject to considerable uncertainty, and represent extremely large data files with associated computational costs of data input/output and file transfer. For periods before the recent past or in the future, global meteorological forcing can be provided by climate model output, but the quality of these data at high temporal resolution is low, particularly for daily precipitation frequency and amount. Here, we present GWGEN, a globally applicable statistical weather generator for the temporal downscaling of monthly climatology to daily meteorology. Our weather generator is parameterized using a global meteorological database and simulates daily values of five common variables: minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and wind speed. GWGEN is lightweight, modular, and requires a minimal set of monthly mean variables as input. The weather generator may be used in a range of applications, for example, in global vegetation, crop, soil erosion, or hydrological models. While GWGEN does not currently perform spatially autocorrelated multi-point downscaling of daily weather, this additional functionality could be implemented in future versions.

Use of midlatitude soil moisture and meteorological observations to validate soil moisture simulations with biosphere and bucket models

Science.gov (United States)

Robock, Alan; Vinnikov, Konstantin YA.; Schlosser, C. Adam; Speranskaya, Nina A.; Xue, Yongkang

1995-01-01

Soil moisture observations in sites with natural vegetation were made for several decades in the former Soviet Union at hundreds of stations. In this paper, the authors use data from six of these stations from different climatic regimes, along with ancillary meteorological and actinometric data, to demonstrate a method to validate soil moisture simulations with biosphere and bucket models. Some early and current general circulation models (GCMs) use bucket models for soil hydrology calculations. More recently, the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB) was developed to incorporate the effects of vegetation on fluxes of moisture, momentum, and energy at the earth's surface into soil hydrology models. Until now, the bucket and SiB have been verified by comparison with actual soil moisture data only on a limited basis. In this study, a Simplified SiB (SSiB) soil hydrology model and a 15-cm bucket model are forced by observed meteorological and actinometric data every 3 h for 6-yr simulations at the six stations. The model calculations of soil moisture are compared to observations of soil moisture, literally 'ground truth,' snow cover, surface albedo, and net radiation, and with each other. For three of the stations, the SSiB and 15-cm bucket models produce good simulations of seasonal cycles and interannual variations of soil moisture. For the other three stations, there are large errors in the simulations by both models. Inconsistencies in specification of field capacity may be partly responsible. There is no evidence that the SSiB simulations are superior in simulating soil moisture variations. In fact, the models are quite similar since SSiB implicitly has a bucket embedded in it. One of the main differences between the models is in the treatment of runoff due to melting snow in the spring -- SSiB incorrectly puts all the snowmelt into runoff. While producing similar soil moisture simulations, the models produce very different surface latent and sensible heat fluxes, which

Meteorology in site operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1986-01-01

During the site selection and design phases of a plant, meteorological assistance must be based on past records, usually accumulated at stations not actually on the site. These preliminary atadvices will be averages and extremes that might be expected. After a location has been chosen and work has begun, current and forecast weather conditions become of immediate concern. On-site meteorological observations and forecasts have many applications to the operating program of an atomic energy site. Requirements may range from observations of the daily minimum temperatures to forecasts of radiation dosages from airborne clouds

THE APPLICATION OF AN EVOLUTIONARY ALGORITHM TO THE OPTIMIZATION OF A MESOSCALE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Werth, D.; O' Steen, L.

2008-02-11

We show that a simple evolutionary algorithm can optimize a set of mesoscale atmospheric model parameters with respect to agreement between the mesoscale simulation and a limited set of synthetic observations. This is illustrated using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). A set of 23 RAMS parameters is optimized by minimizing a cost function based on the root mean square (rms) error between the RAMS simulation and synthetic data (observations derived from a separate RAMS simulation). We find that the optimization can be efficient with relatively modest computer resources, thus operational implementation is possible. The optimization efficiency, however, is found to depend strongly on the procedure used to perturb the 'child' parameters relative to their 'parents' within the evolutionary algorithm. In addition, the meteorological variables included in the rms error and their weighting are found to be an important factor with respect to finding the global optimum.

Meteorological conditions of the mudflow origin in the northern part of the French Alps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. O. Pavlova

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A mudflow phenomena are at the top of the list of dangerous natural hazards in the mountains areas all over the world. Among factors resulting in a mudflow phenomena triggering, meteorological conditions are considered to be the most relevant. The general objective of this study was to identify meteorological parameters controlling the triggering of mudflow phenomena in one part of the French Alps over the last 40 years. Major factors are quite well explored at the global scale or contrariwise in very precise territory in particular catchment areas. However, for now we have a poor knowledge of those factors at the scale of a medium-sized region (including catchments with different geomorphic characteristics over several km² especially in the French Alps. In addition, in this region only a few studies focused on relationships with climate. To understand mudflow phenomena activity and their link with meteorological parameters in the north region of the French Alps, we used a multivariate statistical approach. Regional meteorological parameters (such as mean monthly temperature and precipitation were first computed from a Principal Component Analysis of observed meteorological data from four weather stations. A binomial monthly logistic regression probability model was then fitted between the main principal components and mudflow phenomena data base composed of 298 debris flow events triggered between 1971 and 2008. Results revealed that the most successful model including two meteorological predictors (minimal monthly temperature and the number of rainy days between May and September correctly explains more than 60% of the mudflow phenomena events.

Tornado frequency in the USA - meteorological and non-meteorological factors of a downward trend

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mihajlović Jovan

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Citing numerical simulations, climate alarmists believe that global warming will lead to more frequent and more intensive tornadoes. Considering temperature increase data in the contiguous USA, this study has investigated the trend of strong tornadoes in F3+ category in the 1954-2012 period. Statistically significant decrease of tornadoes per year at an average rate of 0.44 has been recorded, that is, 4.4 tornadoes per decade. Tornado increase has been recorded with F0 and F1 categories and the cause of this increase lies in meteorological and non-meteorological factors. By using upper and lower standard deviation values, the stages of tornado activity have been singled out. The 1957-1974 period may be considered as an active stage and the 1978-2009 period as an inactive stage. Upward trend of air temperature increase does not correspond with the downward trend of the number of F3+ tornado category, while the correlation coefficient between these two variables is R = −0.14. This fact does not correspond with the simulation results and output data of various numerical models anticipating an increase in the number and intensity of tornado events in the conditions of surface air temperature growth.

Numeric-modeling sensitivity analysis of the performance of wind turbine arrays

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lissaman, P.B.S.; Gyatt, G.W.; Zalay, A.D.

1982-06-01

An evaluation of the numerical model created by Lissaman for predicting the performance of wind turbine arrays has been made. Model predictions of the wake parameters have been compared with both full-scale and wind tunnel measurements. Only limited, full-scale data were available, while wind tunnel studies showed difficulties in representing real meteorological conditions. Nevertheless, several modifications and additions have been made to the model using both theoretical and empirical techniques and the new model shows good correlation with experiment. The larger wake growth rate and shorter near wake length predicted by the new model lead to reduced interference effects on downstream turbines and hence greater array efficiencies. The array model has also been re-examined and now incorporates the ability to show the effects of real meteorological conditions such as variations in wind speed and unsteady winds. The resulting computer code has been run to show the sensitivity of array performance to meteorological, machine, and array parameters. Ambient turbulence and windwise spacing are shown to dominate, while hub height ratio is seen to be relatively unimportant. Finally, a detailed analysis of the Goodnoe Hills wind farm in Washington has been made to show how power output can be expected to vary with ambient turbulence, wind speed, and wind direction.

Assessing meteorological key factors influencing crop invasion by pollen beetle (

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jürgen Junk

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The pollen beetle, Meligethes aeneus F. (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae, is a severe pest of winter oilseed rape. A phenological model to forecast the first spring invasion of crops in Luxembourg by M. aeneus was developed in order to provide a tool for improving pest management and for assessing the potential effects of climate change on this pest. The model was derived using long-term, multi-site observational datasets of pollen beetle migration and meteorological data, as the timing of crop invasion is determined mainly by meteorological variables. Daily values of mean air and soil temperature, accumulated sunshine duration and precipitation were used to create a threshold-based model to forecast crop invasion. Minimising of the root mean squared error (RMSE of predicted versus observed migration dates was used as the quality criterion for selecting the optimum combination of threshold values for meteorological variables. We identified mean air temperature 8.0 °C, mean soil temperature 4.6 °C, and sunshine duration of 3.4 h as the best threshold values, with a cut-off of 1 mm precipitation and with no need for persistence of those conditions for more than one day (RMSE=9.3days$RMSE=9.3\\,\\text{days}$. Only in six out of 30 cases, differences between observed and predicted immigration dates were >5$>5$ days. In the future, crop invasion by pollen beetles will probably be strongly affected by changes in air temperature and precipitation related to climate change. We used a multi-model ensemble of 15 regional climate models driven by the A1B emission scenario to assess meteorological changes in two 30‑year future periods, near future (2021–2050 and far future (2069–2098 in comparison with the reference period (1971–2000. Air temperature and precipitation were predicted to increase in the first three months of each year, both in the near future and the far future. The pollen beetle migration model indicated that this change would

Spontaneous appetence for wheel-running: a model of dependency on physical activity in rat.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferreira, Anthony; Lamarque, Stéphanie; Boyer, Patrice; Perez-Diaz, Fernando; Jouvent, Roland; Cohen-Salmon, Charles

2006-12-01

According to human observations of a syndrome of physical activity dependence and its consequences, we tried to examine if running activity in a free activity paradigm, where rats had a free access to activity wheel, may present a valuable animal model for physical activity dependence and most generally to behavioral dependence. The pertinence of reactivity to novelty, a well-known pharmacological dependence predictor was also tested. Given the close linkage observed in human between physical activity and drugs use and abuse, the influence of free activity in activity wheels on reactivity to amphetamine injection and reactivity to novelty were also assessed. It appeared that (1) free access to wheel may be used as a valuable model for physical activity addiction, (2) two populations differing in activity amount also differed in dependence to wheel-running. (3) Reactivity to novelty did not appeared as a predictive factor for physical activity dependence (4) activity modified novelty reactivity and (5) subjects who exhibited a high appetence to wheel-running, presented a strong reactivity to amphetamine. These results propose a model of dependency on physical activity without any pharmacological intervention, and demonstrate the existence of individual differences in the development of this addiction. In addition, these data highlight the development of a likely vulnerability to pharmacological addiction after intense and sustained physical activity, as also described in man. This model could therefore prove pertinent for studying behavioral dependencies and the underlying neurobiological mechanisms. These results may influence the way psychiatrists view behavioral dependencies and phenomena such as doping in sport or addiction to sport itself.

Meteorological risks as drivers of innovation for agroecosystem management

Science.gov (United States)

Gobin, Anne; Van de Vyver, Hans; Zamani, Sepideh; Curnel, Yannick; Planchon, Viviane; Verspecht, Ann; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

2015-04-01

Devastating weather-related events recorded in recent years have captured the interest of the general public in Belgium. The MERINOVA project research hypothesis is that meteorological risks act as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management which is being tested using a "chain of risk" approach. The major objectives are to (1) assess the probability of extreme meteorological events by means of probability density functions; (2) analyse the extreme events impact of on agro-ecosystems using process-based bio-physical modelling methods; (3) identify the most vulnerable agro-ecosystems using fuzzy multi-criteria and spatial analysis; (4) uncover innovative risk management and adaptation options using actor-network theory and economic modelling; and, (5) communicate to research, policy and practitioner communities using web-based techniques. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theory was used to model annual rainfall maxima based on location-, scale- and shape-parameters that determine the centre of the distribution, the deviation of the location-parameter and the upper tail decay, respectively. Likewise the distributions of consecutive rainy days, rainfall deficits and extreme 24-hour rainfall were modelled. Spatial interpolation of GEV-derived return levels resulted in maps of extreme precipitation, precipitation deficits and wet periods. The degree of temporal overlap between extreme weather conditions and sensitive periods in the agro-ecosystem was determined using a bio-physically based modelling framework that couples phenological models, a soil water balance, crop growth and environmental models. 20-year return values were derived for frost, heat stress, drought, waterlogging and field access during different sensitive stages for different arable crops. Extreme yield values were detected from detrended long term arable yields and relationships were found with soil moisture conditions, heat stress or other meteorological variables during the

Modeling monthly meteorological and agronomic frost days, based on minimum air temperature, in Center-Southern Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Alvares, Clayton Alcarde; Sentelhas, Paulo César; Stape, José Luiz

2017-09-01

Although Brazil is predominantly a tropical country, frosts are observed with relative high frequency in the Center-Southern states of the country, affecting mainly agriculture, forestry, and human activities. Therefore, information about the frost climatology is of high importance for planning of these activities. Based on that, the aims of the present study were to develop monthly meteorological (F MET) and agronomic (F AGR) frost day models, based on minimum shelter air temperature (T MN), in order to characterize the temporal and spatial frost days variability in Center-Southern Brazil. Daily minimum air temperature data from 244 weather stations distributed across the study area were used, being 195 for developing the models and 49 for validating them. Multivariate regression models were obtained to estimate the monthly T MN, once the frost day models were based on this variable. All T MN regression models were statistically significant (p Brazilian region are the first zoning of these variables for the country.

Using Machine Learning as a fast emulator of physical processes within the Met Office's Unified Model

Science.gov (United States)

Prudden, R.; Arribas, A.; Tomlinson, J.; Robinson, N.

2017-12-01

The Unified Model is a numerical model of the atmosphere used at the UK Met Office (and numerous partner organisations including Korean Meteorological Agency, Australian Bureau of Meteorology and US Air Force) for both weather and climate applications.Especifically, dynamical models such as the Unified Model are now a central part of weather forecasting. Starting from basic physical laws, these models make it possible to predict events such as storms before they have even begun to form. The Unified Model can be simply described as having two components: one component solves the navier-stokes equations (usually referred to as the "dynamics"); the other solves relevant sub-grid physical processes (usually referred to as the "physics"). Running weather forecasts requires substantial computing resources - for example, the UK Met Office operates the largest operational High Performance Computer in Europe - and the cost of a typical simulation is spent roughly 50% in the "dynamics" and 50% in the "physics". Therefore there is a high incentive to reduce cost of weather forecasts and Machine Learning is a possible option because, once a machine learning model has been trained, it is often much faster to run than a full simulation. This is the motivation for a technique called model emulation, the idea being to build a fast statistical model which closely approximates a far more expensive simulation. In this paper we discuss the use of Machine Learning as an emulator to replace the "physics" component of the Unified Model. Various approaches and options will be presented and the implications for further model development, operational running of forecasting systems, development of data assimilation schemes, and development of ensemble prediction techniques will be discussed.

Modelling of Muscle Force Distributions During Barefoot and Shod Running

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sinclair Jonathan

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Research interest in barefoot running has expanded considerably in recent years, based around the notion that running without shoes is associated with a reduced incidence of chronic injuries. The aim of the current investigation was to examine the differences in the forces produced by different skeletal muscles during barefoot and shod running. Fifteen male participants ran at 4.0 m·s-1 (± 5%. Kinematics were measured using an eight camera motion analysis system alongside ground reaction force parameters. Differences in sagittal plane kinematics and muscle forces between footwear conditions were examined using repeated measures or Freidman’s ANOVA. The kinematic analysis showed that the shod condition was associated with significantly more hip flexion, whilst barefoot running was linked with significantly more flexion at the knee and plantarflexion at the ankle. The examination of muscle kinetics indicated that peak forces from Rectus femoris, Vastus medialis, Vastus lateralis, Tibialis anterior were significantly larger in the shod condition whereas Gastrocnemius forces were significantly larger during barefoot running. These observations provide further insight into the mechanical alterations that runners make when running without shoes. Such findings may also deliver important information to runners regarding their susceptibility to chronic injuries in different footwear conditions.

The Run 2 ATLAS Analysis Event Data Model

CERN Document Server

SNYDER, S; The ATLAS collaboration; NOWAK, M; EIFERT, T; BUCKLEY, A; ELSING, M; GILLBERG, D; MOYSE, E; KOENEKE, K; KRASZNAHORKAY, A

2014-01-01

During the LHC's first Long Shutdown (LS1) ATLAS set out to establish a new analysis model, based on the experience gained during Run 1. A key component of this is a new Event Data Model (EDM), called the xAOD. This format, which is now in production, provides the following features: A separation of the EDM into interface classes that the user code directly interacts with, and data storage classes that hold the payload data. The user sees an Array of Structs (AoS) interface, while the data is stored in a Struct of Arrays (SoA) format in memory, thus making it possible to efficiently auto-vectorise reconstruction code. A simple way of augmenting and reducing the information saved for different data objects. This makes it possible to easily decorate objects with new properties during data analysis, and to remove properties that the analysis does not need. A persistent file format that can be explored directly with ROOT, either with or without loading any additional libraries. This allows fast interactive naviga...

Proceedings of the first SRL model validation workshop

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buckner, M.R.

1981-10-01

The Clean Air Act and its amendments have added importance to knowing the accuracy of mathematical models used to assess transport and diffusion of environmental pollutants. These models are the link between air quality standards and emissions. To test the accuracy of a number of these models, a Model Validation Workshop was held. The meteorological, source-term, and Kr-85 concentration data bases for emissions from the separations areas of the Savannah River Plant during 1975 through 1977 were used to compare calculations from various atmospheric dispersion models. The results of statistical evaluation of the models show a degradation in the ability to predict pollutant concentrations as the time span over which the calculations are made is reduced. Forecasts for annual time periods were reasonably accurate. Weighted-average squared correlation coefficients (R 2 ) were 0.74 for annual, 0.28 for monthly, 0.21 for weekly, and 0.18 for twice-daily predictions. Model performance varied within each of these four categories; however, the results indicate that the more complex, three-dimensional models provide only marginal increases in accuracy. The increased costs of running these codes is not warranted for long-term releases or for conditions of relatively simple terrain and meteorology. The overriding factor in the calculational accuracy is the accurate description of the wind field. Further improvements of the numerical accuracy of the complex models is not nearly as important as accurate calculations of the meteorological transport conditions

Reliability analysis of meteorological data registered during nuclear power plant normal operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amado, V.; Ulke, A.; Marino, B.; Thomas, L.

2011-01-01

The atmosphere is the environment in which gaseous radioactive discharges from nuclear power plants are transported. It is therefore essential to have reliable meteorological information to characterize the dispersion and feed evaluation models and radiological environmental impact during normal operation of the plant as well as accidental releases. In this way it is possible to determine the effects on the environment and in humans. The basic data needed to represent adequately the local weather include air temperature, wind speed and direction, rainfall, humidity and pressure. On the other hand, specific data consistent with the used model is required to determine the turbulence, for instance, radiation, cloud cover and vertical temperature gradient. It is important that the recorded data are representative of the local meteorology. This requires, first, properly placed instruments, that should be kept in operation and undergoing maintenance on a regular basis. Second, but equally substantial, a thorough analysis of its reliability must be performed prior to storage and/or data processing. In this paper we present the main criteria to consider choosing the location of a meteorological tower in the area of a nuclear power plant and propose a methodology for assessing the reliability of recorded data. The methodology was developed from the analysis of meteorological data registered in nuclear power plants in Argentina. (authors) [es

Threshold effects on renormalization group running of neutrino parameters in the low-scale seesaw model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergstroem, Johannes; Ohlsson, Tommy; Zhang He

2011-01-01

We show that, in the low-scale type-I seesaw model, renormalization group running of neutrino parameters may lead to significant modifications of the leptonic mixing angles in view of so-called seesaw threshold effects. Especially, we derive analytical formulas for radiative corrections to neutrino parameters in crossing the different seesaw thresholds, and show that there may exist enhancement factors efficiently boosting the renormalization group running of the leptonic mixing angles. We find that, as a result of the seesaw threshold corrections to the leptonic mixing angles, various flavor symmetric mixing patterns (e.g., bi-maximal and tri-bimaximal mixing patterns) can be easily accommodated at relatively low energy scales, which is well within the reach of running and forthcoming experiments (e.g., the LHC).

Modelling stratospheric chemistry in a global three-dimensional chemical transport model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rummukainen, M [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Sodankylae (Finland). Sodankylae Observatory

1996-12-31

Numerical modelling of atmospheric chemistry aims to increase the understanding of the characteristics, the behavior and the evolution of atmospheric composition. These topics are of utmost importance in the study of climate change. The multitude of gases and particulates making up the atmosphere and the complicated interactions between them affect radiation transfer, atmospheric dynamics, and the impacts of anthropogenic and natural emissions. Chemical processes are fundamental factors in global warming, ozone depletion and atmospheric pollution problems in general. Much of the prevailing work on modelling stratospheric chemistry has so far been done with 1- and 2-dimensional models. Carrying an extensive chemistry parameterisation in a model with high spatial and temporal resolution is computationally heavy. Today, computers are becoming powerful enough to allow going over to 3-dimensional models. In order to concentrate on the chemistry, many Chemical Transport Models (CTM) are still run off-line, i.e. with precalculated and archived meteorology and radiation. In chemistry simulations, the archived values drive the model forward in time, without interacting with the chemical evolution. This is an approach that has been adopted in stratospheric chemistry modelling studies at the Finnish Meteorological Institute. In collaboration with the University of Oslo, a development project was initiated in 1993 to prepare a stratospheric chemistry parameterisation, fit for global 3-dimensional modelling. This article presents the parameterisation approach. Selected results are shown from basic photochemical simulations

Modelling stratospheric chemistry in a global three-dimensional chemical transport model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rummukainen, M. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Sodankylae (Finland). Sodankylae Observatory

1995-12-31

Numerical modelling of atmospheric chemistry aims to increase the understanding of the characteristics, the behavior and the evolution of atmospheric composition. These topics are of utmost importance in the study of climate change. The multitude of gases and particulates making up the atmosphere and the complicated interactions between them affect radiation transfer, atmospheric dynamics, and the impacts of anthropogenic and natural emissions. Chemical processes are fundamental factors in global warming, ozone depletion and atmospheric pollution problems in general. Much of the prevailing work on modelling stratospheric chemistry has so far been done with 1- and 2-dimensional models. Carrying an extensive chemistry parameterisation in a model with high spatial and temporal resolution is computationally heavy. Today, computers are becoming powerful enough to allow going over to 3-dimensional models. In order to concentrate on the chemistry, many Chemical Transport Models (CTM) are still run off-line, i.e. with precalculated and archived meteorology and radiation. In chemistry simulations, the archived values drive the model forward in time, without interacting with the chemical evolution. This is an approach that has been adopted in stratospheric chemistry modelling studies at the Finnish Meteorological Institute. In collaboration with the University of Oslo, a development project was initiated in 1993 to prepare a stratospheric chemistry parameterisation, fit for global 3-dimensional modelling. This article presents the parameterisation approach. Selected results are shown from basic photochemical simulations

Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Otero, Noelia Felipe; Sillmann, Jana; Schnell, Jordan L.; Rust, Henning W.; Butler, Tim

2016-04-01

The present work assesses the relationship between local and synoptic meteorological conditions and surface ozone concentration over Europe in spring and summer months, during the period 1998-2012 using a new interpolated data set of observed surface ozone concentrations over the European domain. Along with local meteorological conditions, the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on surface ozone is addressed through a set of airflow indices computed with a novel implementation of a grid-by-grid weather type classification across Europe. Drivers of surface ozone over the full distribution of maximum daily 8-hour average values are investigated, along with drivers of the extreme high percentiles and exceedances or air quality guideline thresholds. Three different regression techniques are applied: multiple linear regression to assess the drivers of maximum daily ozone, logistic regression to assess the probability of threshold exceedances and quantile regression to estimate the meteorological influence on extreme values, as represented by the 95th percentile. The relative importance of the input parameters (predictors) is assessed by a backward stepwise regression procedure that allows the identification of the most important predictors in each model. Spatial patterns of model performance exhibit distinct variations between regions. The inclusion of the ozone persistence is particularly relevant over Southern Europe. In general, the best model performance is found over Central Europe, where the maximum temperature plays an important role as a driver of maximum daily ozone as well as its extreme values, especially during warmer months.

The Invigoration of Deep Convective Clouds Over the Atlantic: Aerosol Effect, Meteorology or Retrieval Artifact?

Science.gov (United States)

Koren, Ilan; Feingold, Graham; Remer, Lorraine A.

2010-01-01

Associations between cloud properties and aerosol loading are frequently observed in products derived from satellite measurements. These observed trends between clouds and aerosol optical depth suggest aerosol modification of cloud dynamics, yet there are uncertainties involved in satellite retrievals that have the potential to lead to incorrect conclusions. Two of the most challenging problems are addressed here: the potential for retrieved aerosol optical depth to be cloud-contaminated, and as a result, artificially correlated with cloud parameters; and the potential for correlations between aerosol and cloud parameters to be erroneously considered to be causal. Here these issues are tackled directly by studying the effects of the aerosol on convective clouds in the tropical Atlantic Ocean using satellite remote sensing, a chemical transport model, and a reanalysis of meteorological fields. Results show that there is a robust positive correlation between cloud fraction or cloud top height and the aerosol optical depth, regardless of whether a stringent filtering of aerosol measurements in the vicinity of clouds is applied, or not. These same positive correlations emerge when replacing the observed aerosol field with that derived from a chemical transport model. Model-reanalysis data is used to address the causality question by providing meteorological context for the satellite observations. A correlation exercise between the full suite of meteorological fields derived from model reanalysis and satellite-derived cloud fields shows that observed cloud top height and cloud fraction correlate best with model pressure updraft velocity and relative humidity. Observed aerosol optical depth does correlate with meteorological parameters but usually different parameters from those that correlate with observed cloud fields. The result is a near-orthogonal influence of aerosol and meteorological fields on cloud top height and cloud fraction. The results strengthen the case

1-D blood flow modelling in a running human body.

Science.gov (United States)

Szabó, Viktor; Halász, Gábor

2017-07-01

In this paper an attempt was made to simulate blood flow in a mobile human arterial network, specifically, in a running human subject. In order to simulate the effect of motion, a previously published immobile 1-D model was modified by including an inertial force term into the momentum equation. To calculate inertial force, gait analysis was performed at different levels of speed. Our results show that motion has a significant effect on the amplitudes of the blood pressure and flow rate but the average values are not effected significantly.

Jesuits' Contribution to Meteorology.

Science.gov (United States)

Udías, Agustín

1996-10-01

Starting in the middle of the nineteenth century, as part of their scientific tradition, Jesuits founded a considerable number of meteorological observatories throughout the world. In many countries, Jesuits established and maintained the first meteorological stations during the period from 1860 to 1950. The Jesuits' most important contribution to atmospheric science was their pioneer work related to the study and forecast of tropical hurricanes. That research was carried out at observatories of Belén (Cuba), Manila (Philippines), and Zikawei (China). B. Viñes, M. Decheyrens, J. Aigué, and C.E. Deppermann stood out in this movement.

A hierarchical Bayesian model for improving short-term forecasting of hospital demand by including meteorological information

OpenAIRE

Sahu, Sujit K.; Baffour, Bernard; Minty, John; Harper, Paul; Sarran, Christophe

2013-01-01

The effect of weather on health has been widely researched, and the ability to forecast meteorological events is able to offer valuable insights into the impact on public health services. In addition, better predictions of hospital demand that are more sensitive to fluctuations in weather can allow hospital administrators to optimise resource allocation and service delivery. Using historical hospital admission data and several seasonal and meteorological variables for a site near the hospital...

Application of data assimilation technique for flow field simulation for Kaiga site using TAPM model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shrivastava, R.; Oza, R.B.; Puranik, V.D.; Hegde, M.N.; Kushwaha, H.S.

2008-01-01

The data assimilation techniques are becoming popular nowadays to get realistic flow field simulation for the site under consideration. The present paper describes data assimilation technique for flow field simulation for Kaiga site using the air pollution model (TAPM) developed by CSIRO, Australia. In this, the TAPM model was run for Kaiga site for a period of one month (Nov. 2004) using the analysed meteorological data supplied with the model for Central Asian (CAS) region and the model solutions were nudged with the observed wind speed and wind direction data available for the site. The model was run with 4 nested grids with grid spacing varying from 30km, 10km, 3km and 1km respectively. The models generated results with and without nudging are statistically compared with the observations. (author)

Performance evaluation and financial market runs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wagner, W.B.

2013-01-01

This paper develops a model in which performance evaluation causes runs by fund managers and results in asset fire sales. Performance evaluation nonetheless is efficient as it disciplines managers. Optimal performance evaluation combines absolute and relative components in order to make runs less

Running economy and energy cost of running with backpacks.

Science.gov (United States)

Scheer, Volker; Cramer, Leoni; Heitkamp, Hans-Christian

2018-05-02

Running is a popular recreational activity and additional weight is often carried in backpacks on longer runs. Our aim was to examine running economy and other physiological parameters while running with a 1kg and 3 kg backpack at different submaximal running velocities. 10 male recreational runners (age 25 ± 4.2 years, VO2peak 60.5 ± 3.1 ml·kg-1·min-1) performed runs on a motorized treadmill of 5 minutes durations at three different submaximal speeds of 70, 80 and 90% of anaerobic lactate threshold (LT) without additional weight, and carrying a 1kg and 3 kg backpack. Oxygen consumption, heart rate, lactate and RPE were measured and analysed. Oxygen consumption, energy cost of running and heart rate increased significantly while running with a backpack weighing 3kg compared to running without additional weight at 80% of speed at lactate threshold (sLT) (p=0.026, p=0.009 and p=0.003) and at 90% sLT (p<0.001, p=0.001 and p=0.001). Running with a 1kg backpack showed a significant increase in heart rate at 80% sLT (p=0.008) and a significant increase in oxygen consumption and heart rate at 90% sLT (p=0.045 and p=0.007) compared to running without additional weight. While running at 70% sLT running economy and cardiovascular effort increased with weighted backpack running compared to running without additional weight, however these increases did not reach statistical significance. Running economy deteriorates and cardiovascular effort increases while running with additional backpack weight especially at higher submaximal running speeds. Backpack weight should therefore be kept to a minimum.

Wave Run-up on the Zeebrugge Rubble Mound Breakwater

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

De Rouck, Julien; Van de Walle, Björn; Troch, Peter

2007-01-01

A clear difference between full-scale wave run-up measurements and small-scale model test results had been noticed during a MAST II project. This finding initiated a thorough study of wave run-up through the European MAST III OPTICREST project. Full-scale measurement have been carried out...... on the Zeebrugge rubble mound breakwater. This breakwater has been modeled in three laboratories: two 2D models at a scale of 1:30 and one 3D model at a scale of 1:40 have been buildt at Flanders Hydraulics (Belgium), at Universidad Politécnica de Valencia (Spain), and at Aalborg University (Denmark). Wave run......-up has been measured by a digital run-up gauge. This gauge has proven to measure wave run-up more accurately than the traditional wire gauge. Wave spectra measured in Zeebrugge have been reproduced in the laboratories. Results of small-scale model tests and full-scale measurements results have been...

Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework.

OpenAIRE

Fisher, Mark E; Seater, John J

1993-01-01

The authors formalize long-run neutrality and long-run superneutrality in the context of a bivariate ARIMA model; show how the restrictions implied by long-run neutrality and long-run superneutrality depend on the orders of integration of the variables; apply their analysis to previous work, showing how that work is related to long-run neutrality and long-run superneutrality; and provide some new evidence on long-run neutrality and long-run superneutrality. Copyright 1993 by American Economic...

Finite element modelling of Plantar Fascia response during running on different surface types

Science.gov (United States)

Razak, A. H. A.; Basaruddin, K. S.; Salleh, A. F.; Rusli, W. M. R.; Hashim, M. S. M.; Daud, R.

2017-10-01

Plantar fascia is a ligament found in human foot structure located beneath the skin of human foot that functioning to stabilize longitudinal arch of human foot during standing and normal gait. To perform direct experiment on plantar fascia seems very difficult since the structure located underneath the soft tissue. The aim of this study is to develop a finite element (FE) model of foot with plantar fascia and investigate the effect of the surface hardness on biomechanical response of plantar fascia during running. The plantar fascia model was developed using Solidworks 2015 according to the bone structure of foot model that was obtained from Turbosquid database. Boundary conditions were set out based on the data obtained from experiment of ground reaction force response during running on different surface hardness. The finite element analysis was performed using Ansys 14. The results found that the peak of stress and strain distribution were occur on the insertion of plantar fascia to bone especially on calcaneal area. Plantar fascia became stiffer with increment of Young’s modulus value and was able to resist more loads. Strain of plantar fascia was decreased when Young’s modulus increased with the same amount of loading.

Influence of the Meteorology Mast on a Cup Anemometer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Martin O. L.; Pedersen, B.M.

1999-01-01

The actuator disc model is applied on lattice-type meteorological masts to estimate the influence of the tower on the accuracy of the measured wind speed. Combining the results with corrections for the boom, on which the anemometer is mounted, good agreement is found for measurements made on the ...

GPS IPW as a Meteorological Parameter and Climate Global Change Indicator

Science.gov (United States)

Kruczyk, M.; Liwosz, T.

2011-12-01

Paper focuses on comprehensive investigation of the GPS derived IPW (Integrated Precipitable Water, also IWV) as a geophysical tool. GPS meteorology is now widely acknowledged indirect method of atmosphere sensing. First we demonstrate GPS IPW quality. Most thorough inter-technique comparisons of directly measured IPW are attainable only for some observatories (note modest percentage of GPS stations equipped with meteorological devices). Nonetheless we have managed to compare IPW series derived from GPS tropospheric solutions (ZTD mostly from IGS and EPN solutions) and some independent techniques. IPW values from meteorological sources we used are: radiosoundings, sun photometer and input fields of numerical weather prediction model. We can treat operational NWP models as meteorological database within which we can calculate IWV for all GPS stations independently from network of direct measurements (COSMO-LM model maintained by Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management was tried). Sunphotometer (CIMEL-318, Central Geophysical Observatory IGF PAS, Belsk, Poland) data seems the most genuine source - so we decided for direct collocation of GPS measurements and sunphotometer placing permanent GPS receiver on the roof of Belsk Observatory. Next we analyse IPW as geophysical parameter: IPW demonstrates some physical effects evoked by station location (height and series correlation coefficient as a function of distance) and weather patterns like dominant wind directions (in case of neighbouring stations). Deficiency of surface humidity data to model IPW is presented for different climates. This inadequacy and poor humidity data representation in NWP model extremely encourages investigating information exchange potential between Numerical Model and GPS network. The second and most important aspect of this study concerns long series of IPW (daily averaged) which can serve as climatological information indicator (water vapour role in climate system is hard to

Ionospheric irregularities in periods of meteorological disturbances

Science.gov (United States)

Borchevkina, O. P.; Karpov, I. V.

2017-09-01

The results of observations of the total electron content (TEC) in periods of storm disturbances of meteorological situation are presented in the paper. The observational results have shown that a passage of a meteorological storm is accompanied by a substantial decrease in values of TEC and critical frequencies of the ionospheric F2 region. The decreases in values of these ionospheric parameters reach 50% and up to 30% in TEC and critical frequency of the F2 layer, respectively, as compared to meteorologically quiet days. Based on qualitative analysis, it is found that the processes related to formation of local regions of thermospheric heating due to a dissipation of AGW coming into the upper atmosphere from the region of the meteorological disturbance in the lower atmosphere are a possible cause of these ionospheric disturbances.

Assessing the value of increased model resolution in forecasting fire danger

Science.gov (United States)

Jeanne Hoadley; Miriam Rorig; Ken Westrick; Larry Bradshaw; Sue Ferguson; Scott Goodrick; Paul Werth

2003-01-01

The fire season of 2000 was used as a case study to assess the value of increasing mesoscale model resolution for fire weather and fire danger forecasting. With a domain centered on Western Montana and Northern Idaho, MM5 simulations were run at 36, 12, and 4-km resolutions for a 30 day period at the height of the fire season. Verification analyses for meteorological...

Short-run and Current Analysis Model in Statistics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Constantin Anghelache

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Using the short-run statistic indicators is a compulsory requirement implied in the current analysis. Therefore, there is a system of EUROSTAT indicators on short run which has been set up in this respect, being recommended for utilization by the member-countries. On the basis of these indicators, there are regular, usually monthly, analysis being achieved in respect of: the production dynamic determination; the evaluation of the short-run investment volume; the development of the turnover; the wage evolution: the employment; the price indexes and the consumer price index (inflation; the volume of exports and imports and the extent to which the imports are covered by the exports and the sold of trade balance. The EUROSTAT system of indicators of conjuncture is conceived as an open system, so that it can be, at any moment extended or restricted, allowing indicators to be amended or even removed, depending on the domestic users requirements as well as on the specific requirements of the harmonization and integration. For the short-run analysis, there is also the World Bank system of indicators of conjuncture, which is utilized, relying on the data sources offered by the World Bank, The World Institute for Resources or other international organizations statistics. The system comprises indicators of the social and economic development and focuses on the indicators for the following three fields: human resources, environment and economic performances. At the end of the paper, there is a case study on the situation of Romania, for which we used all these indicators.

Short-run and Current Analysis Model in Statistics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Constantin Mitrut

2006-03-01

Full Text Available Using the short-run statistic indicators is a compulsory requirement implied in the current analysis. Therefore, there is a system of EUROSTAT indicators on short run which has been set up in this respect, being recommended for utilization by the member-countries. On the basis of these indicators, there are regular, usually monthly, analysis being achieved in respect of: the production dynamic determination; the evaluation of the short-run investment volume; the development of the turnover; the wage evolution: the employment; the price indexes and the consumer price index (inflation; the volume of exports and imports and the extent to which the imports are covered by the exports and the sold of trade balance. The EUROSTAT system of indicators of conjuncture is conceived as an open system, so that it can be, at any moment extended or restricted, allowing indicators to be amended or even removed, depending on the domestic users requirements as well as on the specific requirements of the harmonization and integration. For the short-run analysis, there is also the World Bank system of indicators of conjuncture, which is utilized, relying on the data sources offered by the World Bank, The World Institute for Resources or other international organizations statistics. The system comprises indicators of the social and economic development and focuses on the indicators for the following three fields: human resources, environment and economic performances. At the end of the paper, there is a case study on the situation of Romania, for which we used all these indicators.

A Scalable Version of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System Spectral Forecast Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas E. Rosmond

2000-01-01

Full Text Available The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS includes a state-of-the-art spectral forecast model similar to models run at several major operational numerical weather prediction (NWP centers around the world. The model, developed by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL in Monterey, California, has run operational at the Fleet Numerical Meteorological and Oceanographic Center (FNMOC since 1982, and most recently is being run on a Cray C90 in a multi-tasked configuration. Typically the multi-tasked code runs on 10 to 15 processors with overall parallel efficiency of about 90%. resolution is T159L30, but other operational and research applications run at significantly lower resolutions. A scalable NOGAPS forecast model has been developed by NRL in anticipation of a FNMOC C90 replacement in about 2001, as well as for current NOGAPS research requirements to run on DOD High-Performance Computing (HPC scalable systems. The model is designed to run with message passing (MPI. Model design criteria include bit reproducibility for different processor numbers and reasonably efficient performance on fully shared memory, distributed memory, and distributed shared memory systems for a wide range of model resolutions. Results for a wide range of processor numbers, model resolutions, and different vendor architectures are presented. Single node performance has been disappointing on RISC based systems, at least compared to vector processor performance. This is a common complaint, and will require careful re-examination of traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP model software design and data organization to fully exploit future scalable architectures.

CMB constraints on running non-Gaussianity

OpenAIRE

Oppizzi, Filippo; Liguori, Michele; Renzi, Alessandro; Arroja, Frederico; Bartolo, Nicola

2017-01-01

We develop a complete set of tools for CMB forecasting, simulation and estimation of primordial running bispectra, arising from a variety of curvaton and single-field (DBI) models of Inflation. We validate our pipeline using mock CMB running non-Gaussianity realizations and test it on real data by obtaining experimental constraints on the $f_{\\rm NL}$ running spectral index, $n_{\\rm NG}$, using WMAP 9-year data. Our final bounds (68\\% C.L.) read $-0.3< n_{\\rm NG}

Air Quality and Meteorological Boundary Conditions during the MCMA-2003 Field Campaign

Science.gov (United States)

Sosa, G.; Arriaga, J.; Vega, E.; Magaña, V.; Caetano, E.; de Foy, B.; Molina, L. T.; Molina, M. J.; Ramos, R.; Retama, A.; Zaragoza, J.; Martínez, A. P.; Márquez, C.; Cárdenas, B.; Lamb, B.; Velasco, E.; Allwine, E.; Pressley, S.; Westberg, H.; Reyes, R.

2004-12-01

A comprehensive field campaign to characterize photochemical smog in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) was conducted during April 2003. An important number of equipment was deployed all around the urban core and its surroundings to measure gas and particles composition from the various sources and receptor sites. In addition to air quality measurements, meteorology variables were also taken by regular weather meteorological stations, tethered balloons, radiosondes, sodars and lidars. One important issue with regard to the field campaign was the characterization of the boundary conditions in order to feed meteorological and air quality models. Four boundary sites were selected to measure continuously criteria pollutants, VOC and meteorological variables at surface level. Vertical meteorological profiles were measured at three other sites : radiosondes in Tacubaya site were launched every six hours daily; tethered balloons were launched at CENICA and FES-Cuautitlan sites according to the weather conditions, and one sodar was deployed at UNAM site in the south of the city. Additionally to these measurements, two fixed meteorological monitoring networks deployed along the city were available to complement these measurements. In general, we observed that transport of pollutants from the city to the boundary sites changes every day, according to the coupling between synoptic and local winds. This effect were less important at elevated sites such as Cerro de la Catedral and ININ, where synoptic wind were more dominant during the field campaign. Also, local sources nearby boundary sites hide the influence of pollution coming from the city some days, particularly at the La Reforma site.

Daily river flow prediction based on Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy Systems Modeling: A case of hydrological - meteorological measurements asymmetry

Science.gov (United States)

Bou-Fakhreddine, Bassam; Mougharbel, Imad; Faye, Alain; Abou Chakra, Sara; Pollet, Yann

2018-03-01

Accurate daily river flow forecast is essential in many applications of water resources such as hydropower operation, agricultural planning and flood control. This paper presents a forecasting approach to deal with a newly addressed situation where hydrological data exist for a period longer than that of meteorological data (measurements asymmetry). In fact, one of the potential solutions to resolve measurements asymmetry issue is data re-sampling. It is a matter of either considering only the hydrological data or the balanced part of the hydro-meteorological data set during the forecasting process. However, the main disadvantage is that we may lose potentially relevant information from the left-out data. In this research, the key output is a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy inference hybrid model that is implemented over the non re-sampled data. The introduced modeling approach must be capable of exploiting the available data efficiently with higher prediction efficiency relative to Constructive Fuzzy model trained over re-sampled data set. The study was applied to Litani River in the Bekaa Valley - Lebanon by using 4 years of rainfall and 24 years of river flow daily measurements. A Constructive Fuzzy System Model (C-FSM) and a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy System Model (TPC-FSM) are trained. Upon validating, the second model has shown a primarily competitive performance and accuracy with the ability to preserve a higher day-to-day variability for 1, 3 and 6 days ahead. In fact, for the longest lead period, the C-FSM and TPC-FSM were able of explaining respectively 84.6% and 86.5% of the actual river flow variation. Overall, the results indicate that TPC-FSM model has provided a better tool to capture extreme flows in the process of streamflow prediction.

GEOS-5 Chemistry Transport Model User's Guide

Science.gov (United States)

Kouatchou, J.; Molod, A.; Nielsen, J. E.; Auer, B.; Putman, W.; Clune, T.

2015-01-01

The Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) General Circulation Model (GCM) makes use of the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) to enable model configurations with many functions. One of the options of the GEOS-5 GCM is the GEOS-5 Chemistry Transport Model (GEOS-5 CTM), which is an offline simulation of chemistry and constituent transport driven by a specified meteorology and other model output fields. This document describes the basic components of the GEOS-5 CTM, and is a user's guide on to how to obtain and run simulations on the NCCS Discover platform. In addition, we provide information on how to change the model configuration input files to meet users' needs.

Testing ATLAS Z+MET excess with LHC run 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lu, Xiaochuan; Terada, Takahiro

2016-05-01

The ATLAS collaboration reported a 3σ excess in the search of events containing on-Z dilepton, jets, and large missing momentum (MET) in the 8 TeV LHC run. Motivated by this excess, many models of new physics have been proposed. Recently, the ATLAS and CMS collaborations reported new results for similar Z+MET channels in the 13 TeV run. In this paper, we comprehensively discuss the consistency between the proposed models and the LHC results of Run 1 and Run 2. We find that in models with heavy gluino production, there is generically some tension between the 8 TeV and 13 TeV results. On the other hand, models with light squark production provide relatively better fitting to both results.

MODELING THE TRANSPORT AND CHEMICAL EVOLUTION OF ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE EMISSIONS AND THEIR IMPACT ON LOCAL AND REGIONAL AIR QUALITY USING A VARIABLE-GRID-RESOLUTION AIR QUALITY MODEL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kiran Alapaty

2005-05-13

This second annual report summarizes the research performed from 17 April 2004 through 16 April 2005. Major portions of the research in several of the project's current eight tasks have been completed. We have successfully developed the meteorological inputs using the best possible modeling configurations, resulting in improved representation of atmospheric processes. The development of the variable-grid-resolution emissions model, SMOKE-VGR, is also completed. The development of the MAQSIP-VGR has been completed and a test run was performed to ensure the functionality of this air quality model. Thus, the project is on schedule as planned. During the upcoming reporting period, we expect to perform the first MAQSIP-VGR simulations over the Houston-Galveston region to study the roles of the meteorology, offshore emissions, and chemistry-transport interactions that determine the temporal and spatial evolution of ozone and its precursors.

Intercomparison of the community multiscale air quality model and CALGRID using process analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Susan M; Lamb, Brian K

2005-08-01

This study was designed to examine the similarities and differences between two advanced photochemical air quality modeling systems: EPA Models-3/CMAQ and CALGRID/CALMET. Both modeling systems were applied to an ozone episode that occurred along the I-5 urban corridor in western Washington and Oregon during July 11-14, 1996. Both models employed the same modeling domain and used the same detailed gridded emission inventory. The CMAQ model was run using both the CB-IV and RADM2 chemical mechanisms, while CALGRID was used with the SAPRC-97 chemical mechanism. Outputfrom the Mesoscale Meteorological Model (MM5) employed with observational nudging was used in both models. The two modeling systems, representing three chemical mechanisms and two sets of meteorological inputs, were evaluated in terms of statistical performance measures for both 1- and 8-h average observed ozone concentrations. The results showed that the different versions of the systems were more similar than different, and all versions performed well in the Portland region and downwind of Seattle but performed poorly in the more rural region north of Seattle. Improving the meteorological input into the CALGRID/CALMET system with planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameters from the Models-3/CMAQ meteorology preprocessor (MCIP) improved the performance of the CALGRID/CALMET system. The 8-h ensemble case was often the best performer of all the cases indicating that the models perform better over longer analysis periods. The 1-h ensemble case, derived from all runs, was not necessarily an improvement over the five individual cases, but the standard deviation about the mean provided a measure of overall modeling uncertainty. Process analysis was applied to examine the contribution of the individual processes to the species conservation equation. The process analysis results indicated that the two modeling systems arrive at similar solutions by very different means. Transport rates are faster and exhibit

Meteorological Integration for the Biological Warning and Incident Characterization (BWIC) System: General Guidance for BWIC Cities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shaw, William J.; Wang, Weiguo; Rutz, Frederick C.; Chapman, Elaine G.; Rishel, Jeremy P.; Xie, YuLong; Seiple, Timothy E.; Allwine, K Jerry

2007-02-16

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is responsible for developing systems to detect the release of aerosolized bioagents in urban environments. The system that accomplishes this, known as BioWatch, is a robust first-generation monitoring system. In conjunction with the BioWatch detection network, DHS has also developed a software tool for cities to use to assist in their response when a bioagent is detected. This tool, the Biological Warning and Incident Characterization (BWIC) System, will eventually be deployed to all BioWatch cities to aid in the interpretation of the public health significance of indicators from the BioWatch networks. BWIC consists of a set of integrated modules, including meteorological models, that estimate the effect of a biological agent on a city’s population once it has been detected. For the meteorological models in BWIC to successfully calculate the distribution of biological material, they must have as input accurate meteorological data, and wind fields in particular. The purpose of this document is to provide guidance for cities to use in identifying sources of good-quality local meteorological data that BWIC needs to function properly. This process of finding sources of local meteorological data, evaluating the data quality and gaps in coverage, and getting the data into BWIC, referred to as meteorological integration, is described. The good news for many cities is that meteorological measurement networks are becoming increasingly common. Most of these networks allow their data to be distributed in real time via the internet. Thus, cities will often only need to evaluate the quality of available measurements and perhaps add a modest number of stations where coverage is poor.

The Robust Running Ape: Unraveling the Deep Underpinnings of Coordinated Human Running Proficiency

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Kiely

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In comparison to other mammals, humans are not especially strong, swift or supple. Nevertheless, despite these apparent physical limitations, we are among Natures most superbly well-adapted endurance runners. Paradoxically, however, notwithstanding this evolutionary-bestowed proficiency, running-related injuries, and Overuse syndromes in particular, are widely pervasive. The term ‘coordination’ is similarly ubiquitous within contemporary coaching, conditioning, and rehabilitation cultures. Various theoretical models of coordination exist within the academic literature. However, the specific neural and biological underpinnings of ‘running coordination,’ and the nature of their integration, remain poorly elaborated. Conventionally running is considered a mundane, readily mastered coordination skill. This illusion of coordinative simplicity, however, is founded upon a platform of immense neural and biological complexities. This extensive complexity presents extreme organizational difficulties yet, simultaneously, provides a multiplicity of viable pathways through which the computational and mechanical burden of running can be proficiently dispersed amongst expanded networks of conditioned neural and peripheral tissue collaborators. Learning to adequately harness this available complexity, however, is a painstakingly slowly emerging, practice-driven process, greatly facilitated by innate evolutionary organizing principles serving to constrain otherwise overwhelming complexity to manageable proportions. As we accumulate running experiences persistent plastic remodeling customizes networked neural connectivity and biological tissue properties to best fit our unique neural and architectural idiosyncrasies, and personal histories: thus neural and peripheral tissue plasticity embeds coordination habits. When, however, coordinative processes are compromised—under the integrated influence of fatigue and/or accumulative cycles of injury, overuse

An Evaluation System for the Online Training Programs in Meteorology and Hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yong; Zhi, Xiefei

2009-01-01

This paper studies the current evaluation system for the online training program in meteorology and hydrology. CIPP model that includes context evaluation, input evaluation, process evaluation and product evaluation differs from Kirkpatrick model including reactions evaluation, learning evaluation, transfer evaluation and results evaluation in…

Barefoot running: biomechanics and implications for running injuries.

Science.gov (United States)

Altman, Allison R; Davis, Irene S

2012-01-01

Despite the technological developments in modern running footwear, up to 79% of runners today get injured in a given year. As we evolved barefoot, examining this mode of running is insightful. Barefoot running encourages a forefoot strike pattern that is associated with a reduction in impact loading and stride length. Studies have shown a reduction in injuries to shod forefoot strikers as compared with rearfoot strikers. In addition to a forefoot strike pattern, barefoot running also affords the runner increased sensory feedback from the foot-ground contact, as well as increased energy storage in the arch. Minimal footwear is being used to mimic barefoot running, but it is not clear whether it truly does. The purpose of this article is to review current and past research on shod and barefoot/minimal footwear running and their implications for running injuries. Clearly more research is needed, and areas for future study are suggested.

PM10 Pollution: Its Prediction and Meteorological Influence in PasirGudang, Johor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Afzali, A; Ramli, M; Rashid, M; Sabariah, B

2014-01-01

Ambient PM 10 (i.e particulate diameter less than 10 um in size) pollution has negative impacts on human health and it is influenced by meteorological conditions. Although the correlation between meteorological parameters and PM 10 concentrations is significant in most cases, the linear relationship between them implies that the fraction of the variance, R2 rarely exceeds 25%. However, considering the previous day's concentration of pollutants to the multi-linear regression enhances the model performance and increases the value of R2. Alternatively, artificial neural networks (ANN) are used to capture the complex relationships among many factors considered which present a better prediction. Thus, this study presents the results of predicting ambient PM 10 concentration and the influence of meteorological parameters based on the data sampled from 2008 – 2010 in an industrial area of PasirGudang, Johor

A joint modelling exercise designed to assess the respective impact of emission changes and meteorological variability on the observed air quality trends in major urban hotspots.

Science.gov (United States)

Colette, Augustin; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Dangiola, Ariela; D'Isidoro, Massimo; Gauss, Michael; Granier, Claire; Hodnebrog, Øivind; Jakobs, Hermann; Kanakidou, Maria; Khokhar, Fahim; Law, Kathy; Maurizi, Alberto; Meleux, Frederik; Memmesheimer, Michael; Nyiri, Agnes; Rouil, Laurence; Stordal, Frode; Tampieri, Francesco

2010-05-01

With the growth of urban agglomerations, assessing the drivers of variability of air quality in and around the main anthropogenic emission hotspots has become a major societal concern as well as a scientific challenge. These drivers include emission changes and meteorological variability; both of them can be investigated by means of numerical modelling of trends over the past few years. A collaborative effort has been developed in the framework of the CityZen European project to address this question. Several chemistry and transport models (CTMs) are deployed in this activity: four regional models (BOLCHEM, CHIMERE, EMEP and EURAD) and three global models (CTM2, MOZART, and TM4). The period from 1998 to 2007 has been selected for the historic reconstruction. The focus for the present preliminary presentation is Europe. A consistent set of emissions is used by all partners (EMEP for the European domain and IPCC-AR5 beyond) while a variety of meteorological forcing is used to gain robustness in the ensemble spread amongst models. The results of this experiment will be investigated to address the following questions: - Is the envelope of models able to reproduce the observed trends of the key chemical constituents? - How the variability amongst models changes in time and space and what does it tell us about the processes driving the observed trends? - Did chemical regimes and aerosol formation processes changed in selected hotspots? Answering the above questions will contribute to fulfil the ultimate goal of the present study: distinguishing the respective contribution of meteorological variability and emissions changes on air quality trends in major anthropogenic emissions hotspots.

Does a crouched leg posture enhance running stability and robustness?

Science.gov (United States)

Blum, Yvonne; Birn-Jeffery, Aleksandra; Daley, Monica A; Seyfarth, Andre

2011-07-21

Humans and birds both walk and run bipedally on compliant legs. However, differences in leg architecture may result in species-specific leg control strategies as indicated by the observed gait patterns. In this work, control strategies for stable running are derived based on a conceptual model and compared with experimental data on running humans and pheasants (Phasianus colchicus). From a model perspective, running with compliant legs can be represented by the planar spring mass model and stabilized by applying swing leg control. Here, linear adaptations of the three leg parameters, leg angle, leg length and leg stiffness during late swing phase are assumed. Experimentally observed kinematic control parameters (leg rotation and leg length change) of human and avian running are compared, and interpreted within the context of this model, with specific focus on stability and robustness characteristics. The results suggest differences in stability characteristics and applied control strategies of human and avian running, which may relate to differences in leg posture (straight leg posture in humans, and crouched leg posture in birds). It has been suggested that crouched leg postures may improve stability. However, as the system of control strategies is overdetermined, our model findings suggest that a crouched leg posture does not necessarily enhance running stability. The model also predicts different leg stiffness adaptation rates for human and avian running, and suggests that a crouched avian leg posture, which is capable of both leg shortening and lengthening, allows for stable running without adjusting leg stiffness. In contrast, in straight-legged human running, the preparation of the ground contact seems to be more critical, requiring leg stiffness adjustment to remain stable. Finally, analysis of a simple robustness measure, the normalized maximum drop, suggests that the crouched leg posture may provide greater robustness to changes in terrain height

Methods and strategy for modeling daily global solar radiation with measured meteorological data - A case study in Nanchang station, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Guofeng; Liu, Yaolin; Wang, Tiejun

2007-01-01

Solar radiation is a primary driver for many physical, chemical and biological processes on the earth's surface, and complete and accurate solar radiation data at a specific region are quite indispensable to the solar energy related researches. This study, with Nanchang station, China, as a case study, aimed to calibrate existing models and develop new models for estimating missing global solar radiation data using commonly measured meteorological data and to propose a strategy for selecting the optimal models under different situations of available meteorological data. Using daily global radiation, sunshine hours, temperature, total precipitation and dew point data covering the years from 1994 to 2005, we calibrated or developed and evaluated seven existing models and two new models. Validation criteria included intercept, slope, coefficient of determination, mean bias error and root mean square error. The best result (R 2 = 0.93) was derived from Chen model 2, which uses sunshine hours and temperature as predictors. The Bahel model, which only uses sunshine hours, was almost as good, explaining 92% of the solar radiation variance. Temperature based models (Bristow and Campbell, Allen, Hargreaves and Chen 1 models) provided less accurate results, of which the best one (R 2 = 0.69) is the Bristow and Campbell model. The temperature based models were improved by adding other variables (daily mean total precipitation and mean dew point). Two such models could explain 77% (Wu model 1) and 80% (Wu model 2) of the solar radiation variance. We, thus, propose a strategy for selecting an optimal method for calculating missing daily values of global solar radiation: (1) when sunshine hour and temperature data are available, use Chen model 2; (2) when only sunshine hour data are available, use Bahel model; (3) when temperature, total precipitation and dew point data are available but not sunshine hours, use Wu model 2; (4) when only temperature and total precipitation are

Air pollutants, meteorology and plant injury

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mukammal, E I; Brandt, C S; Neuwirth, R; Pack, D H; Swinbank, W C

1968-01-01

The study of the effect of air pollutants on plant growth inevitably involves meteorological factors, and the World Meteorological Organization has therefore been giving much attention to this matter for some time. Within the Organization, responsibility for this work naturally fell to the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM), and following the time-honored procedure in such cases, the Commission established in 1962 a small international group of acknowledged experts to study plant injury and reduction of yield by non-radioactive air pollutants, and charged it with the specific task of preparing a review of present knowledge of the subjects involved. After several years' work, the group fulfilled its appointed task and the resulting report is now published in this WMO Technical Note. 95 references.

Running Parallel Discrete Event Simulators on Sierra

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barnes, P. D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Jefferson, D. R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2015-12-03

In this proposal we consider porting the ROSS/Charm++ simulator and the discrete event models that run under its control so that they run on the Sierra architecture and make efficient use of the Volta GPUs.

Meteorology, Macrophysics, Microphysics, Microwaves, and Mesoscale Modeling of Mediterranean Mountain Storms: The M8 Laboratory

Science.gov (United States)

Starr, David O. (Technical Monitor); Smith, Eric A.

2002-01-01

Comprehensive understanding of the microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms can be accomplished by a combination of in situ meteorological data analysis and radar-passive microwave data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales, from synoptic scale down through the mesoscale, the cloud macrophysical scale, and ultimately the cloud microphysical scale. The microphysical properties of and their controls on severe storms are intrinsically related to meteorological processes under which storms have evolved, processes which eventually select and control the dominant microphysical properties themselves. This involves intense convective development, stratiform decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes, as well as the associated vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that affect details of the size distributions and fall rates of the various types of hydrometeors found within the storm environment. Insofar as hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted in this study by three mountain storms producing damaging floods in northern Italy between 1992 and 2000, developing a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution and the heterogeneous nature of precipitation fields within a storm domain. This involves convective development, stratiform transition and decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes. This also involves vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that determine details of the liquid/ice water contents, size disi:ributions, and fall rates of the various modes of hydrometeors found within hazardous storm environments.

Hydro-meteorological evaluation of downscaled global ensemble rainfall forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Gaborit, Étienne; Anctil, François; Fortin, Vincent; Pelletier, Geneviève

2013-04-01

Ensemble rainfall forecasts are of high interest for decision making, as they provide an explicit and dynamic assessment of the uncertainty in the forecast (Ruiz et al. 2009). However, for hydrological forecasting, their low resolution currently limits their use to large watersheds (Maraun et al. 2010). In order to bridge this gap, various implementations of the statistic-stochastic multi-fractal downscaling technique presented by Perica and Foufoula-Georgiou (1996) were compared, bringing Environment Canada's global ensemble rainfall forecasts from a 100 by 70-km resolution down to 6 by 4-km, while increasing each pixel's rainfall variance and preserving its original mean. For comparison purposes, simpler methods were also implemented such as the bi-linear interpolation, which disaggregates global forecasts without modifying their variance. The downscaled meteorological products were evaluated using different scores and diagrams, from both a meteorological and a hydrological view points. The meteorological evaluation was conducted comparing the forecasted rainfall depths against nine days of observed values taken from Québec City rain gauge database. These 9 days present strong precipitation events occurring during the summer of 2009. For the hydrologic evaluation, the hydrological models SWMM5 and (a modified version of) GR4J were implemented on a small 6 km2 urban catchment located in the Québec City region. Ensemble hydrologic forecasts with a time step of 3 hours were then performed over a 3-months period of the summer of 2010 using the original and downscaled ensemble rainfall forecasts. The most important conclusions of this work are that the overall quality of the forecasts was preserved during the disaggregation procedure and that the disaggregated products using this variance-enhancing method were of similar quality than bi-linear interpolation products. However, variance and dispersion of the different members were, of course, much improved for the

Integrated modeling of the dynamic meteorological and sea surface conditions during the passage of Typhoon Morakot

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Han Soo; Yamashita, Takao; Hsu, John R.-C.; Ding, Fei

2013-01-01

In August 2009, Typhoon Morakot caused massive flooding and devastating mudslides in the southern Taiwan triggered by extremely heavy rainfall (2777 mm in 4 days) which occurred during its passage. It was one of the deadliest typhoons that have ever attacked Taiwan in recent years. In this study, numerical simulations are performed for the storm surge and ocean surface waves, together with dynamic meteorological fields such as wind, pressure and precipitation induced by Typhoon Morakot, using an atmosphere-waves-ocean integrated modelling system. The wave-induced dissipation stress from breaking waves, whitecapping and depth-induced wave breaking, is parameterized and included in the wave-current interaction process, in addition to its influence on the storm surge level in shallow water along the coast of Taiwan. The simulated wind and pressure field captures the characteristics of the observed meteorological field. The spatial distribution of the accumulated rainfall within 4 days, from 00:00 UTC 6 August to 00:00 UTC 10 August 2009, shows similar patterns as the observed values. The 4-day accumulated rainfall of 2777 mm at the A-Li Shan mountain weather station for the same period depicted a high correlation with the observed value of 2780 mm/4 days. The effects of wave-induced dissipation stress in the wave-current interaction resulted in increased surge heights on the relatively shallow western coast of Taiwan, where the bottom slope of the bathymetry ranges from mild to moderate. The results also show that wave-breaking has to be considered for accurate storm surge prediction along the east coast of Taiwan over the narrow bank of surf zone with a high horizontal resolution of the model domain.

Meteorological tracers in regional planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, K.H.

1974-11-01

Atmospheric tracers can be used as indicators to study both the ventilation of an urban region and its dispersion meteorology for air pollutants. A correlation analysis applied to the space-time dependent tracer concentrations is able to give transfer functions, the structure and characteristic parameters of which describe the meteorological and topographical situation of the urban region and its surroundings in an integral manner. To reduce the number of persons usually involved in a tracer experiment an automatic air sampling system had to be developed

Effects of Yaw Error on Wind Turbine Running Characteristics Based on the Equivalent Wind Speed Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shuting Wan

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Natural wind is stochastic, being characterized by its speed and direction which change randomly and frequently. Because of the certain lag in control systems and the yaw body itself, wind turbines cannot be accurately aligned toward the wind direction when the wind speed and wind direction change frequently. Thus, wind turbines often suffer from a series of engineering issues during operation, including frequent yaw, vibration overruns and downtime. This paper aims to study the effects of yaw error on wind turbine running characteristics at different wind speeds and control stages by establishing a wind turbine model, yaw error model and the equivalent wind speed model that includes the wind shear and tower shadow effects. Formulas for the relevant effect coefficients Tc, Sc and Pc were derived. The simulation results indicate that the effects of the aerodynamic torque, rotor speed and power output due to yaw error at different running stages are different and that the effect rules for each coefficient are not identical when the yaw error varies. These results may provide theoretical support for optimizing the yaw control strategies for each stage to increase the running stability of wind turbines and the utilization rate of wind energy.

Radius stabilization and brane running in the Randall-Sundrum type 1 model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brevik, Iver; Ghoroku, Kazuo; Yahiro, Masanobu

2004-01-01

We study the effective potential of a scalar field based on the 5D gauged supergravity for the Randall-Sundrum type one brane model in terms of the brane running method. The scalar couples to the brane such that the Bogomolnyi-Prasad-Sommerfield conditions are satisfied for the bulk configuration. The resulting effective potential implies that the interbrane distance is undetermined in this case, and we need a small Bogomolnyi-Prasad-Sommerfield breaking term on the brane to stabilize the interbrane distance at a finite length. We also discuss the relationship to the Goldberger-Wise model

Method to characterize local meteorology at nuclear facilities for application to emergency response needs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindsey, C.G.; Glantz, C.S.

1986-04-01

Effluent dispersion is evaluated using computer codes that require various meteorological parameters such as wind and stability data. These data will be based on current conditions at the site in question, and on forecasts of the expected local meteorology for the time period to be simulated. To assist NRC personnel in preparing these forecasts, a weather-typing model was implemented to analyze the characteristic behavior of local meteorology as it responds to various synoptic-scale weather features (e.g., warm fronts, cold fronts, high pressure systems). Historical observations acquired by instrumented towers at several nuclear power plants were analyzed as a function of the prevailing synoptic weather feature, synoptic-scale pressure gradient, and time of year. This study focused on sites located in shoreline and complex terrain environments because of the occurrence of mesoscale circulations, which are the sea/lake-land breeze and valley wind systems. Such circulations produce diurnally changing wind and stability conditions that cannot be readily identified by synoptic-scale weather forecasts. The advantage in analyzing the climatological behavior of local meteorology as it responds to various synoptic weather systems is that certain weather systems will control the local meteorology and produce persistent conditions

The Second Student-Run Homeless Shelter

Science.gov (United States)

Seider, Scott C.

2012-01-01

From 1983-2011, the Harvard Square Homeless Shelter (HSHS) in Cambridge, Massachusetts, was the only student-run homeless shelter in the United States. However, college students at Villanova, Temple, Drexel, the University of Pennsylvania, and Swarthmore drew upon the HSHS model to open their own student-run homeless shelter in Philadelphia,…

Constraints on running vacuum model with H ( z ) and f σ{sub 8}

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Geng, Chao-Qiang [Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, 400065 (China); Lee, Chung-Chi [DAMTP, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA (United Kingdom); Yin, Lu, E-mail: geng@phys.nthu.edu.tw, E-mail: lee.chungchi16@gmail.com, E-mail: yinlumail@foxmail.com [Department of Physics, National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, 300 Taiwan (China)

2017-08-01

We examine the running vacuum model with Λ ( H ) = 3 ν H {sup 2} + Λ{sub 0}, where ν is the model parameter and Λ{sub 0} is the cosmological constant. From the data of the cosmic microwave background radiation, weak lensing and baryon acoustic oscillation along with the time dependent Hubble parameter H ( z ) and weighted linear growth f ( z )σ{sub 8}( z ) measurements, we find that ν=(1.37{sup +0.72}{sub −0.95})× 10{sup −4} with the best fitted χ{sup 2} value slightly smaller than that in the ΛCDM model.

Correlation between the meteorological data acquisition systems of the Centro Experimental ARAMAR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oliveira, Rando M.; Beu, Cássia M.L., E-mail: rando.oliveira@marinha.mil.br, E-mail: cassia.beu@marinha.mil.br [Centro Tecnológico da Marinha em São Paulo (CEA/CTMSP), Iperó, SP (Brazil). Centro Experimental ARAMAR

2017-07-01

Centro Experimental ARAMAR (CEA) is a Brazilian Navy Technological Center located in the rural area of lperó (São Paulo State), about 10-km distant from the nearest urban area. One of the most important activities at CEA is the nuclear fuel cycle research, as well as the development of a small-scale pressurized water reactor (PWR) land based prototype, The Laboratório Radioecológico (LAR E) is responsible for the meteorological observation program which relies on an automatic data collection system, The following variables are continuously measured: pressure, precipitation, wind speed, wind direction, temperature and relative humidity, The obtained data is refined and used in the annual reports to Comissão Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN), and are an important input data for atmospheric dispersion models. Due to the construction of the Laboratório de Geraç!o Nucleoclétrica (LABGENE), it will be necessary to change tbe location of the towers and meteorological sensors, Thus, since 20 14, a new set of towers and sensors (Torre Nova) are in operation. The new location is 900 m distant from the old set (Torre Velha). Therefore, CEA has currently two meteorological data acquisition systems operating concurrently for approximately three years. The present work aims to compare the meteorological data of both systems in order to verify their agreement. The meteorological time series of both systems were submitted to a statistical analysis to evaluate their correlation. The results of this work confirm the compatibility of the two systems, showing that the Torre Velha can be deactivated without impairment to the meteorological time series. (author)

Correlation between the meteorological data acquisition systems of the Centro Experimental ARAMAR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliveira, Rando M.; Beu, Cássia M.L.

2017-01-01

Centro Experimental ARAMAR (CEA) is a Brazilian Navy Technological Center located in the rural area of lperó (São Paulo State), about 10-km distant from the nearest urban area. One of the most important activities at CEA is the nuclear fuel cycle research, as well as the development of a small-scale pressurized water reactor (PWR) land based prototype, The Laboratório Radioecológico (LAR E) is responsible for the meteorological observation program which relies on an automatic data collection system, The following variables are continuously measured: pressure, precipitation, wind speed, wind direction, temperature and relative humidity, The obtained data is refined and used in the annual reports to Comissão Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN), and are an important input data for atmospheric dispersion models. Due to the construction of the Laboratório de Geraç!o Nucleoclétrica (LABGENE), it will be necessary to change tbe location of the towers and meteorological sensors, Thus, since 20 14, a new set of towers and sensors (Torre Nova) are in operation. The new location is 900 m distant from the old set (Torre Velha). Therefore, CEA has currently two meteorological data acquisition systems operating concurrently for approximately three years. The present work aims to compare the meteorological data of both systems in order to verify their agreement. The meteorological time series of both systems were submitted to a statistical analysis to evaluate their correlation. The results of this work confirm the compatibility of the two systems, showing that the Torre Velha can be deactivated without impairment to the meteorological time series. (author)

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