WorldWideScience

Sample records for model runs meteorology

  1. Mathematical problems in meteorological modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Csomós, Petra; Faragó, István; Horányi, András; Szépszó, Gabriella

    2016-01-01

    This book deals with mathematical problems arising in the context of meteorological modelling. It gathers and presents some of the most interesting and important issues from the interaction of mathematics and meteorology. It is unique in that it features contributions on topics like data assimilation, ensemble prediction, numerical methods, and transport modelling, from both mathematical and meteorological perspectives. The derivation and solution of all kinds of numerical prediction models require the application of results from various mathematical fields. The present volume is divided into three parts, moving from mathematical and numerical problems through air quality modelling, to advanced applications in data assimilation and probabilistic forecasting. The book arose from the workshop “Mathematical Problems in Meteorological Modelling” held in Budapest in May 2014 and organized by the ECMI Special Interest Group on Numerical Weather Prediction. Its main objective is to highlight the beauty of the de...

  2. Urban meteorological modelling for nuclear emergency preparedness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baklanov, Alexander; Sorensen, Jens Havskov; Hoe, Steen Cordt; Amstrup, Bjarne

    2006-01-01

    The main objectives of the current EU project 'Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure' (FUMAPEX) are the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, the connection of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to urban air pollution and population dose models, the building of improved urban air quality information and forecasting systems, and their application in cities in various European climates. In addition to the forecast of the worst air-pollution episodes in large cities, the potential use of improved weather forecasts for nuclear emergency management in urban areas, in case of hazardous releases from nuclear accidents or terror acts, is considered. Such use of NWP data is tested for the Copenhagen metropolitan area and the Oresund region. The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) is running an experimental version of the HIRLAM NWP model over Zealand including the Copenhagen metropolitan area with a horizontal resolution of 1.4 km, thus approaching the city-scale. This involves 1-km resolution physiographic data with implications for the urban surface parameters, e.g. surface fluxes, roughness length and albedo. For the city of Copenhagen, the enhanced high-resolution NWP forecasting will be provided to demonstrate the improved dispersion forecasting capabilities of the Danish nuclear emergency preparedness decision-support system, the Accident Reporting and Guidance Operational System (ARGOS), used by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA). Recently, ARGOS has been extended with a capability of real-time calculation of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material from accidental releases. This is effectuated through on-line interfacing with the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is run at DMI. For local-scale modelling of atmospheric dispersion, ARGOS utilises the Local-Scale Model Chain (LSMC), which makes use of high-resolution DMI

  3. Effects of Meteorological Data Quality on Snowpack Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havens, S.; Marks, D. G.; Robertson, M.; Hedrick, A. R.; Johnson, M.

    2017-12-01

    Detailed quality control of meteorological inputs is the most time-intensive component of running the distributed, physically-based iSnobal snow model, and the effect of data quality of the inputs on the model is unknown. The iSnobal model has been run operationally since WY2013, and is currently run in several basins in Idaho and California. The largest amount of user input during modeling is for the quality control of precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed and wind direction inputs. Precipitation inputs require detailed user input and are crucial to correctly model the snowpack mass. This research applies a range of quality control methods to meteorological input, from raw input with minimal cleaning, to complete user-applied quality control. The meteorological input cleaning generally falls into two categories. The first is global minimum/maximum and missing value correction that could be corrected and/or interpolated with automated processing. The second category is quality control for inputs that are not globally erroneous, yet are still unreasonable and generally indicate malfunctioning measurement equipment, such as temperature or relative humidity that remains constant, or does not correlate with daily trends observed at nearby stations. This research will determine how sensitive model outputs are to different levels of quality control and guide future operational applications.

  4. Meteorological uncertainty of atmospheric dispersion model results (MUD)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Havskov Soerensen, J.; Amstrup, B.; Feddersen, H. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen (Denmark)] [and others

    2013-08-15

    The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario. However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for long-range atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent uncertainties of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological observations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing e.g. the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observational data, an ensemble of meteorological forecasts is produced from which uncertainties in the various meteorological parameters are estimated, e.g. probabilities for rain. Corresponding ensembles of atmospheric dispersion can now be computed from which uncertainties of predicted radionuclide concentration and deposition patterns can be derived. (Author)

  5. Meteorological uncertainty of atmospheric dispersion model results (MUD)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Havskov Soerensen, J.; Amstrup, B.; Feddersen, H.

    2013-08-01

    The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario. However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for long-range atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent uncertainties of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological observations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing e.g. the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observational data, an ensemble of meteorological forecasts is produced from which uncertainties in the various meteorological parameters are estimated, e.g. probabilities for rain. Corresponding ensembles of atmospheric dispersion can now be computed from which uncertainties of predicted radionuclide concentration and deposition patterns can be derived. (Author)

  6. A meteorological distribution system for high-resolution terrestrial modeling (MicroMet)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glen E. Liston; Kelly Elder

    2006-01-01

    An intermediate-complexity, quasi-physically based, meteorological model (MicroMet) has been developed to produce high-resolution (e.g., 30-m to 1-km horizontal grid increment) atmospheric forcings required to run spatially distributed terrestrial models over a wide variety of landscapes. The following eight variables, required to run most terrestrial models, are...

  7. A Meteorological Distribution System for High Resolution Terrestrial Modeling (MicroMet)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liston, G. E.; Elder, K.

    2004-12-01

    Spatially distributed terrestrial models generally require atmospheric forcing data on horizontal grids that are of higher resolution than available meteorological data. Furthermore, the meteorological data collected may not necessarily represent the area of interest's meteorological variability. To address these deficiencies, computationally efficient and physically realistic methods must be developed to take available meteorological data sets (e.g., meteorological tower observations) and generate high-resolution atmospheric-forcing distributions. This poster describes MicroMet, a quasi-physically-based, but simple meteorological distribution model designed to produce high-resolution (e.g., 5-m to 1-km horizontal grid increments) meteorological data distributions required to run spatially distributed terrestrial models over a wide variety of landscapes. The model produces distributions of the seven fundamental atmospheric forcing variables required to run most terrestrial models: air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, incoming solar radiation, incoming longwave radiation, and precipitation. MicroMet includes a preprocessor that analyzes meteorological station data and identifies and repairs potential data deficiencies. The model uses known relationships between meteorological variables and the surrounding area (primarily topography) to distribute those variables over any given landscape. MicroMet performs two kinds of adjustments to available meteorological data: 1) when there are data at more than one location, at a given time, the data are spatially interpolated over the domain using a Barnes objective analysis scheme, and 2) physical sub-models are applied to each MicroMet variable to improve its realism at a given point in space and time with respect to the terrain. The three, 25-km by 25-km, Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) mesoscale study areas (MSAs: Fraser, North Park, and Rabbit Ears) will be used as example Micro

  8. Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreher, Joseph G.

    2009-01-01

    For expedience in delivering dispersion guidance in the diversity of operational situations, National Weather Service Melbourne (MLB) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are becoming increasingly reliant on the PC-based version of the HYSPLIT model run through a graphical user interface (GUI). While the GUI offers unique advantages when compared to traditional methods, it is difficult for forecasters to run and manage in an operational environment. To alleviate the difficulty in providing scheduled real-time trajectory and concentration guidance, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) configured a Linux version of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) (HYSPLIT) model that ingests the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) guidance, such as the North American Mesoscale (NAM) and the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) models. The AMU configured the HYSPLIT system to automatically download the NCEP model products, convert the meteorological grids into HYSPLIT binary format, run the model from several pre-selected latitude/longitude sites, and post-process the data to create output graphics. In addition, the AMU configured several software programs to convert local Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model output into HYSPLIT format.

  9. Meteorological fluid dynamics asymptotic modelling, stability and chaotic atmospheric motion

    CERN Document Server

    Zeytounian, Radyadour K

    1991-01-01

    The author considers meteorology as a part of fluid dynamics. He tries to derive the properties of atmospheric flows from a rational analysis of the Navier-Stokes equations, at the same time analyzing various types of initial and boundary problems. This approach to simulate nature by models from fluid dynamics will be of interest to both scientists and students of physics and theoretical meteorology.

  10. Applications of complex terrain meteorological models to emergency response management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamada, Tetsuji; Leone, J.M. Jr.; Rao, K.S.; Dickerson, M.H.; Bader, D.C.; Williams, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The Office of Health and Environmental Research (OHER), US Department of Energy (DOE), has supported the development of mesoscale transport and diffusion and meteorological models for several decades. The model development activities are closely tied to the OHER field measurement program which has generated a large amount of meteorological and tracer gas data that have been used extensively to test and improve both meteorological and dispersion models. This paper briefly discusses the history of the model development activities associated with the OHER atmospheric science program. The discussion will then focus on how results from this program have made their way into the emergency response community in the past, and what activities are presently being pursued to improve real-time emergency response capabilities. Finally, fruitful areas of research for improving real-time emergency response modeling capabilities are suggested. 35 refs., 5 figs

  11. Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartholmes

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of analysing the coupling of meteorological meso-scale quantitative precipitation forecasts with distributed rainfall-runoff models to extend the forecasting horizon. Traditionally, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff models have been used for real time flood forecasting. More recently, increased computer capabilities allow the utilisation of distributed hydrological models with mesh sizes from tenths of metres to a few kilometres. On the other hand, meteorological models, providing the quantitative precipitation forecast, tend to produce average values on meshes ranging from slightly less than 10 to 200 kilometres. Therefore, to improve the quality of flood forecasts, the effects of coupling the meteorological and the hydrological models at different scales were analysed. A distributed hydrological model (TOPKAPI was developed and calibrated using a 1x1 km mesh for the case of the river Po closed at Ponte Spessa (catchment area c. 37000 km2. The model was then coupled with several other European meteorological models ranging from the Limited Area Models (provided by DMI and DWD with resolutions from 0.0625° * 0.0625°, to the ECMWF ensemble predictions with a resolution of 1.85° * 1.85°. Interesting results, describing the coupled model behaviour, are available for a meteorological extreme event in Northern Italy (Nov. 1994. The results demonstrate the poor reliability of the quantitative precipitation forecasts produced by meteorological models presently available; this is not resolved using the Ensemble Forecasting technique, when compared with results obtainable with measured rainfall.

  12. Numerical Modelling of Wave Run-Up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramirez, Jorge Robert Rodriguez; Frigaard, Peter; Andersen, Thomas Lykke

    2011-01-01

    Wave loads are important in problems related to offshore structure, such as wave run-up, slamming. The computation of such wave problems are carried out by CFD models. This paper presents one model, NS3, which solve 3D Navier-Stokes equations and use Volume of Fluid (VOF) method to treat the free...

  13. Impact of inherent meteorology uncertainty on air quality model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    It is well established that there are a number of different classifications and sources of uncertainties in environmental modeling systems. Air quality models rely on two key inputs, namely, meteorology and emissions. When using air quality models for decision making, it is impor...

  14. Running-mass inflation model and WMAP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Covi, Laura; Lyth, David H.; Melchiorri, Alessandro; Odman, Carolina J.

    2004-01-01

    We consider the observational constraints on the running-mass inflationary model, and, in particular, on the scale dependence of the spectral index, from the new cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy measurements performed by WMAP and from new clustering data from the SLOAN survey. We find that the data strongly constraints a significant positive scale dependence of n, and we translate the analysis into bounds on the physical parameters of the inflaton potential. Looking deeper into specific types of interaction (gauge and Yukawa) we find that the parameter space is significantly constrained by the new data, but that the running-mass model remains viable

  15. Mesoscale meteorological model based on radioactive explosion cloud simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Yi; Zhang Yan; Ying Chuntong

    2008-01-01

    In order to simulate nuclear explosion and dirty bomb radioactive cloud movement and concentration distribution, mesoscale meteorological model RAMS was used. Particles-size, size-active distribution and gravitational fallout in the cloud were considered. The results show that the model can simulate the 'mushroom' clouds of explosion. Three-dimension fluid field and radioactive concentration field were received. (authors)

  16. Sensitivity of hydrological modeling to meteorological data and implications for climate change studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, L.G.; Roy, R.; Desrochers, G.E.; Vaillancourt, C.; Chartier, I.

    2008-01-01

    There are uncertainties associated with the use of hydrological models. This study aims to analyse one source of uncertainty associated with hydrological modeling, particularly in the context of climate change studies on water resources. Additional intent of this study is to compare the ability of some meteorological data sources, used in conjunction with an hydrological model, to reproduce the hydrologic regime of a watershed. A case study on a watershed of south-western Quebec, Canada using five different sources of meteorological data as input to an offline hydrological model are presented in this paper. Data used came from weather stations, NCEP reanalysis, ERA40 reanalysis and two Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) runs driven by NCEP and ERA40 reanalysis, providing atmospheric driving boundary conditions to this limited-area climate model. To investigate the sensitivity of simulated streamflow to different sources of meteorological data, we first calibrated the hydrological model with each of the meteorological data sets over the 1961-1980 period. The five different sets of parameters of the hydrological model were then used to simulate streamflow of the 1981-2000 validation period with the five meteorological data sets as inputs. The 25 simulated streamflow series have been compared to the observed streamflow of the watershed. The five meteorological data sets do not have the same ability, when used with the hydrological model, to reproduce streamflow. Our results show also that the hydrological model parameters used may have an important influence on results such as water balance, but it is linked with the differences that may have in the characteristics of the meteorological data used. For climate change impacts assessments on water resources, we have found that there is an uncertainty associated with the meteorological data used to calibrate the model. For expected changes on mean annual flows of the Chateauguay River, our results vary from a small

  17. Comparative analysis of meteorological performance of coupled chemistry-meteorology models in the context of AQMEII phase 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Air pollution simulations critically depend on the quality of the underlying meteorology. In phase 2 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII-2), thirteen modeling groups from Europe and four groups from North America operating eight different regional...

  18. Application of nonlinear forecasting techniques for meteorological modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Pérez-Muñuzuri

    2000-10-01

    Full Text Available A nonlinear forecasting method was used to predict the behavior of a cloud coverage time series several hours in advance. The method is based on the reconstruction of a chaotic strange attractor using four years of cloud absorption data obtained from half-hourly Meteosat infrared images from Northwestern Spain. An exhaustive nonlinear analysis of the time series was carried out to reconstruct the phase space of the underlying chaotic attractor. The forecast values are used by a non-hydrostatic meteorological model ARPS for daily weather prediction and their results compared with surface temperature measurements from a meteorological station and a vertical sounding. The effect of noise in the time series is analyzed in terms of the prediction results.Key words: Meterology and atmospheric dynamics (mesoscale meteorology; general – General (new fields

  19. Application of nonlinear forecasting techniques for meteorological modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Pérez-Muñuzuri

    Full Text Available A nonlinear forecasting method was used to predict the behavior of a cloud coverage time series several hours in advance. The method is based on the reconstruction of a chaotic strange attractor using four years of cloud absorption data obtained from half-hourly Meteosat infrared images from Northwestern Spain. An exhaustive nonlinear analysis of the time series was carried out to reconstruct the phase space of the underlying chaotic attractor. The forecast values are used by a non-hydrostatic meteorological model ARPS for daily weather prediction and their results compared with surface temperature measurements from a meteorological station and a vertical sounding. The effect of noise in the time series is analyzed in terms of the prediction results.

    Key words: Meterology and atmospheric dynamics (mesoscale meteorology; general – General (new fields

  20. Modelling the meteorological forest fire niche in heterogeneous pyrologic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

    2015-01-01

    Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition.

  1. Running vacuum cosmological models: linear scalar perturbations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perico, E.L.D. [Instituto de Física, Universidade de São Paulo, Rua do Matão 1371, CEP 05508-090, São Paulo, SP (Brazil); Tamayo, D.A., E-mail: elduartep@usp.br, E-mail: tamayo@if.usp.br [Departamento de Astronomia, Universidade de São Paulo, Rua do Matão 1226, CEP 05508-900, São Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2017-08-01

    In cosmology, phenomenologically motivated expressions for running vacuum are commonly parameterized as linear functions typically denoted by Λ( H {sup 2}) or Λ( R ). Such models assume an equation of state for the vacuum given by P-bar {sub Λ} = - ρ-bar {sub Λ}, relating its background pressure P-bar {sub Λ} with its mean energy density ρ-bar {sub Λ} ≡ Λ/8π G . This equation of state suggests that the vacuum dynamics is due to an interaction with the matter content of the universe. Most of the approaches studying the observational impact of these models only consider the interaction between the vacuum and the transient dominant matter component of the universe. We extend such models by assuming that the running vacuum is the sum of independent contributions, namely ρ-bar {sub Λ} = Σ {sub i} ρ-bar {sub Λ} {sub i} . Each Λ i vacuum component is associated and interacting with one of the i matter components in both the background and perturbation levels. We derive the evolution equations for the linear scalar vacuum and matter perturbations in those two scenarios, and identify the running vacuum imprints on the cosmic microwave background anisotropies as well as on the matter power spectrum. In the Λ( H {sup 2}) scenario the vacuum is coupled with every matter component, whereas the Λ( R ) description only leads to a coupling between vacuum and non-relativistic matter, producing different effects on the matter power spectrum.

  2. Coupling of high-resolution meteorological and wave models over southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Bertotti

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of RISKMED project, three different high-resolution limited area meteorological models (BOLAM, MOLOCH and WRF have been run over southern Italy for the retrospective analysis of three case studies characterized by strong winds and severe wave conditions in the Ionian, southern Adriatic and southern Tyrrhenian seas. All the models were able to reproduce the main meteorological features of each event.

    The wind fields simulated by the meteorological models and those provided by the ECMWF analysis have been ingested into a wave model (WAM for the hindcast of the main wave parameters. The results have been compared with the observations of three buoys whose measurements were available in the area of interest.

    A remarkable improvement in the representation of the significant wave height came out using the limited area model data with respect to the simulations where the ECMWF analyses were used as forcing. Among the limited area models, the BOLAM-MOLOCH modelling system provided slightly better performances. From the limited set of simulations, the different model predictions came out closer to each other and more skilful in areas where the waves approach the coastline perpendicularly from the open sea.

  3. Data assimilation in atmospheric chemistry models: current status and future prospects for coupled chemistry meteorology models

    OpenAIRE

    M. Bocquet; H. Elbern; H. Eskes; M. Hirtl; R. Žabkar; G. R. Carmichael; J. Flemming; A. Inness; M. Pagowski; J. L. Pérez Camaño; P. E. Saide; R. San Jose; M. Sofiev; J. Vira; A. Baklanov

    2015-01-01

    Data assimilation is used in atmospheric chemistry models to improve air quality forecasts, construct re-analyses of three-dimensional chemical (including aerosol) concentrations and perform inverse modeling of input variables or model parameters (e.g., emissions). Coupled chemistry meteorology models (CCMM) are atmospheric chemistry models that simulate meteorological processes and chemical transformations jointly. They offer the possibility to assimilate both meteorologica...

  4. Sensitivity and uncertainty studies of the CRAC2 code for selected meteorological models and parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, R.C.; Kocher, D.C.; Hicks, B.B.; Hosker, R.P. Jr.; Ku, J.Y.; Rao, K.S.

    1985-01-01

    We have studied the sensitivity of results from the CRAC2 computer code, which predicts health impacts from a reactor-accident scenario, to uncertainties in selected meteorological models and parameters. The sources of uncertainty examined include the models for plume rise and wet deposition and the meteorological bin-sampling procedure. An alternative plume-rise model usually had little effect on predicted health impacts. In an alternative wet-deposition model, the scavenging rate depends only on storm type, rather than on rainfall rate and atmospheric stability class as in the CRAC2 model. Use of the alternative wet-deposition model in meteorological bin-sampling runs decreased predicted mean early injuries by as much as a factor of 2-3 and, for large release heights and sensible heat rates, decreased mean early fatalities by nearly an order of magnitude. The bin-sampling procedure in CRAC2 was expanded by dividing each rain bin into four bins that depend on rainfall rate. Use of the modified bin structure in conjunction with the CRAC2 wet-deposition model changed all predicted health impacts by less than a factor of 2. 9 references

  5. Giving students the run of sprinting models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heck, André; Ellermeijer, Ton

    2009-11-01

    A biomechanical study of sprinting is an interesting task for students who have a background in mechanics and calculus. These students can work with real data and do practical investigations similar to the way sports scientists do research. Student research activities are viable when the students are familiar with tools to collect and work with data from sensors and video recordings and with modeling tools for comparing simulation and experimental results. This article describes a multipurpose system, named COACH, that offers a versatile integrated set of tools for learning, doing, and teaching mathematics and science in a computer-based inquiry approach. Automated tracking of reference points and correction of perspective distortion in videos, state-of-the-art algorithms for data smoothing and numerical differentiation, and graphical system dynamics based modeling are some of the built-in techniques that are suitable for motion analysis. Their implementation and their application in student activities involving models of running are discussed.

  6. Air quality modeling: evaluation of chemical and meteorological parameterizations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Youngseob

    2011-01-01

    The influence of chemical mechanisms and meteorological parameterizations on pollutant concentrations calculated with an air quality model is studied. The influence of the differences between two gas-phase chemical mechanisms on the formation of ozone and aerosols in Europe is low on average. For ozone, the large local differences are mainly due to the uncertainty associated with the kinetics of nitrogen monoxide (NO) oxidation reactions on the one hand and the representation of different pathways for the oxidation of aromatic compounds on the other hand. The aerosol concentrations are mainly influenced by the selection of all major precursors of secondary aerosols and the explicit treatment of chemical regimes corresponding to the nitrogen oxides (NO x ) levels. The influence of the meteorological parameterizations on the concentrations of aerosols and their vertical distribution is evaluated over the Paris region in France by comparison to lidar data. The influence of the parameterization of the dynamics in the atmospheric boundary layer is important; however, it is the use of an urban canopy model that improves significantly the modeling of the pollutant vertical distribution (author) [fr

  7. runDM: Running couplings of Dark Matter to the Standard Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Eramo, Francesco; Kavanagh, Bradley J.; Panci, Paolo

    2018-02-01

    runDM calculates the running of the couplings of Dark Matter (DM) to the Standard Model (SM) in simplified models with vector mediators. By specifying the mass of the mediator and the couplings of the mediator to SM fields at high energy, the code can calculate the couplings at low energy, taking into account the mixing of all dimension-6 operators. runDM can also extract the operator coefficients relevant for direct detection, namely low energy couplings to up, down and strange quarks and to protons and neutrons.

  8. Scrub Typhus Incidence Modeling with Meteorological Factors in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Jaewon; Kim, Soojun; Kim, Gilho; Singh, Vijay P; Hong, Seungjin; Kim, Hung Soo

    2015-06-29

    Since its recurrence in 1986, scrub typhus has been occurring annually and it is considered as one of the most prevalent diseases in Korea. Scrub typhus is a 3rd grade nationally notifiable disease that has greatly increased in Korea since 2000. The objective of this study is to construct a disease incidence model for prediction and quantification of the incidences of scrub typhus. Using data from 2001 to 2010, the incidence Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, which considers the time-lag between scrub typhus and minimum temperature, precipitation and average wind speed based on the Granger causality and spectral analysis, is constructed and tested for 2011 to 2012. Results show reliable simulation of scrub typhus incidences with selected predictors, and indicate that the seasonality in meteorological data should be considered.

  9. Scrub Typhus Incidence Modeling with Meteorological Factors in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaewon Kwak

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Since its recurrence in 1986, scrub typhus has been occurring annually and it is considered as one of the most prevalent diseases in Korea. Scrub typhus is a 3rd grade nationally notifiable disease that has greatly increased in Korea since 2000. The objective of this study is to construct a disease incidence model for prediction and quantification of the incidences of scrub typhus. Using data from 2001 to 2010, the incidence Artificial Neural Network (ANN model, which considers the time-lag between scrub typhus and minimum temperature, precipitation and average wind speed based on the Granger causality and spectral analysis, is constructed and tested for 2011 to 2012. Results show reliable simulation of scrub typhus incidences with selected predictors, and indicate that the seasonality in meteorological data should be considered.

  10. A risk evaluation model using on-site meteorological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, C.S.

    1979-01-01

    A model is considered in order to evaluate the potential risk from a nuclear facility directly combining the on site meteorological data. The model is utilized to evaluate the environmental consequences from the routine releases during normal plant operation as well as following postulated accidental releases. The doses to individual and risks to the population-at-large are also analyzed in conjunction with design of rad-waste management and safety systems. It is observed that the conventional analysis, which is done in two separate unaffiliated phases of releases and atmospheric dispersion tends to result in unnecessary over-design of the systems because of high resultant doses calculated by multiplication of two extreme values. (author)

  11. Sensitivity of modeled estuarine circulation to spatial and temporal resolution of input meteorological forcing of a cold frontal passage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, Robert J.; Taeb, Peyman; Lazarus, Steven; Splitt, Michael; Holman, Bryan P.; Colvin, Jeffrey

    2016-12-01

    In this study, a four member ensemble of meteorological forcing is generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in order to simulate a frontal passage event that impacted the Indian River Lagoon (IRL) during March 2015. The WRF model is run to provide high and low, spatial (0.005° and 0.1°) and temporal (30 min and 6 h) input wind and pressure fields. The four member ensemble is used to force the Advanced Circulation model (ADCIRC) coupled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) and compute the hydrodynamic and wave response. Results indicate that increasing the spatial resolution of the meteorological forcing has a greater impact on the results than increasing the temporal resolution in coastal systems like the IRL where the length scales are smaller than the resolution of the operational meteorological model being used to generate the forecast. Changes in predicted water elevations are due in part to the upwind and downwind behavior of the input wind forcing. The significant wave height is more sensitive to the meteorological forcing, exhibited by greater ensemble spread throughout the simulation. It is important that the land mask, seen by the meteorological model, is representative of the geography of the coastal estuary as resolved by the hydrodynamic model. As long as the temporal resolution of the wind field captures the bulk characteristics of the frontal passage, computational resources should be focused so as to ensure that the meteorological model resolves the spatial complexities, such as the land-water interface, that drive the land use responsible for dynamic downscaling of the winds.

  12. Model for radionuclide transport in running waters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jonsson, Karin; Elert, Mark [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2005-11-15

    Two sites in Sweden are currently under investigation by SKB for their suitability as places for deep repository of radioactive waste, the Forsmark and Simpevarp/Laxemar area. As a part of the safety assessment, SKB has formulated a biosphere model with different sub-models for different parts of the ecosystem in order to be able to predict the dose to humans following a possible radionuclide discharge from a future deep repository. In this report, a new model concept describing radionuclide transport in streams is presented. The main difference from the previous model for running water used by SKB, where only dilution of the inflow of radionuclides was considered, is that the new model includes parameterizations also of the exchange processes present along the stream. This is done in order to be able to investigate the effect of the retention on the transport and to be able to estimate the resulting concentrations in the different parts of the system. The concentrations determined with this new model could later be used for order of magnitude predictions of the dose to humans. The presented model concept is divided in two parts, one hydraulic and one radionuclide transport model. The hydraulic model is used to determine the flow conditions in the stream channel and is based on the assumption of uniform flow and quasi-stationary conditions. The results from the hydraulic model are used in the radionuclide transport model where the concentration is determined in the different parts of the stream ecosystem. The exchange processes considered are exchange with the sediments due to diffusion, advective transport and sedimentation/resuspension and uptake of radionuclides in biota. Transport of both dissolved radionuclides and sorbed onto particulates is considered. Sorption kinetics in the stream water phase is implemented as the time scale of the residence time in the stream water probably is short in comparison to the time scale of the kinetic sorption. In the sediment

  13. Model for radionuclide transport in running waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonsson, Karin; Elert, Mark

    2005-11-01

    Two sites in Sweden are currently under investigation by SKB for their suitability as places for deep repository of radioactive waste, the Forsmark and Simpevarp/Laxemar area. As a part of the safety assessment, SKB has formulated a biosphere model with different sub-models for different parts of the ecosystem in order to be able to predict the dose to humans following a possible radionuclide discharge from a future deep repository. In this report, a new model concept describing radionuclide transport in streams is presented. The main difference from the previous model for running water used by SKB, where only dilution of the inflow of radionuclides was considered, is that the new model includes parameterizations also of the exchange processes present along the stream. This is done in order to be able to investigate the effect of the retention on the transport and to be able to estimate the resulting concentrations in the different parts of the system. The concentrations determined with this new model could later be used for order of magnitude predictions of the dose to humans. The presented model concept is divided in two parts, one hydraulic and one radionuclide transport model. The hydraulic model is used to determine the flow conditions in the stream channel and is based on the assumption of uniform flow and quasi-stationary conditions. The results from the hydraulic model are used in the radionuclide transport model where the concentration is determined in the different parts of the stream ecosystem. The exchange processes considered are exchange with the sediments due to diffusion, advective transport and sedimentation/resuspension and uptake of radionuclides in biota. Transport of both dissolved radionuclides and sorbed onto particulates is considered. Sorption kinetics in the stream water phase is implemented as the time scale of the residence time in the stream water probably is short in comparison to the time scale of the kinetic sorption. In the sediment

  14. Forecasting rain events - Meteorological models or collective intelligence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arazy, Ofer; Halfon, Noam; Malkinson, Dan

    2015-04-01

    Collective intelligence is shared (or group) intelligence that emerges from the collective efforts of many individuals. Collective intelligence is the aggregate of individual contributions: from simple collective decision making to more sophisticated aggregations such as in crowdsourcing and peer-production systems. In particular, collective intelligence could be used in making predictions about future events, for example by using prediction markets to forecast election results, stock prices, or the outcomes of sport events. To date, there is little research regarding the use of collective intelligence for prediction of weather forecasting. The objective of this study is to investigate the extent to which collective intelligence could be utilized to accurately predict weather events, and in particular rainfall. Our analyses employ metrics of group intelligence, as well as compare the accuracy of groups' predictions against the predictions of the standard model used by the National Meteorological Services. We report on preliminary results from a study conducted over the 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 winters. We have built a web site that allows people to make predictions on precipitation levels on certain locations. During each competition participants were allowed to enter their precipitation forecasts (i.e. 'bets') at three locations and these locations changed between competitions. A precipitation competition was defined as a 48-96 hour period (depending on the expected weather conditions), bets were open 24-48 hours prior to the competition, and during betting period participants were allowed to change their bets with no limitation. In order to explore the effect of transparency, betting mechanisms varied across study's sites: full transparency (participants able to see each other's bets); partial transparency (participants see the group's average bet); and no transparency (no information of others' bets is made available). Several interesting findings emerged from

  15. Evaluation of an atmospheric model with surface and ABL meteorological data for energy applications in structured areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triantafyllou, A. G.; Kalogiros, J.; Krestou, A.; Leivaditou, E.; Zoumakis, N.; Bouris, D.; Garas, S.; Konstantinidis, E.; Wang, Q.

    2018-03-01

    This paper provides the performance evaluation of the meteorological component of The Air Pollution Model (TAPM), a nestable prognostic model, in predicting meteorological variables in urban areas, for both its surface layer and atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) turbulence parameterizations. The model was modified by incorporating four urban land surface types, replacing the existing single urban surface. Control runs were carried out over the wider area of Kozani, an urban area in NW Greece. The model was evaluated for both surface and ABL meteorological variables by using measurements of near-surface and vertical profiles of wind and temperature. The data were collected by using monitoring surface stations in selected sites as well as an acoustic sounder (SOnic Detection And Ranging (SODAR), up to 300 m above ground) and a radiometer profiler (up to 600 m above ground). The results showed the model demonstrated good performance in predicting the near-surface meteorology in the Kozani region for both a winter and a summer month. In the ABL, the comparison showed that the model's forecasts generally performed well with respect to the thermal structure (temperature profiles and ABL height) but overestimated wind speed at the heights of comparison (mostly below 200 m) up to 3-4 ms-1.

  16. Atmospheric Boundary Layer Modeling for Combined Meteorology and Air Quality Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atmospheric Eulerian grid models for mesoscale and larger applications require sub-grid models for turbulent vertical exchange processes, particularly within the Planetary Boundary Layer (PSL). In combined meteorology and air quality modeling systems consistent PSL modeling of wi...

  17. A NEW COMBINED LOCAL AND NON-LOCAL PBL MODEL FOR METEOROLOGY AND AIR QUALITY MODELING

    Science.gov (United States)

    A new version of the Asymmetric Convective Model (ACM) has been developed to describe sub-grid vertical turbulent transport in both meteorology models and air quality models. The new version (ACM2) combines the non-local convective mixing of the original ACM with local eddy diff...

  18. Running-mass inflation model and primordial black holes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drees, Manuel; Erfani, Encieh

    2011-01-01

    We revisit the question whether the running-mass inflation model allows the formation of Primordial Black Holes (PBHs) that are sufficiently long-lived to serve as candidates for Dark Matter. We incorporate recent cosmological data, including the WMAP 7-year results. Moreover, we include ''the running of the running'' of the spectral index of the power spectrum, as well as the renormalization group ''running of the running'' of the inflaton mass term. Our analysis indicates that formation of sufficiently heavy, and hence long-lived, PBHs still remains possible in this scenario. As a by-product, we show that the additional term in the inflaton potential still does not allow significant negative running of the spectral index

  19. Modelling surface run-off and trends analysis over India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    exponential model was developed between the rainfall and the run-off that predicted the run-off with an R2 of ... precipitation and other climate parameters is well documented ...... Sen P K 1968 Estimates of the regression coefficient based.

  20. Improved meteorology from an updated WRF/CMAQ modeling system with MODIS vegetation and albedo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Realistic vegetation characteristics and phenology from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products improve the simulation for the meteorology and air quality modeling system WRF/CMAQ (Weather Research and Forecasting model and Community Multiscale Air Qual...

  1. Computing Models of CDF and D0 in Run II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lammel, S.

    1997-05-01

    The next collider run of the Fermilab Tevatron, Run II, is scheduled for autumn of 1999. Both experiments, the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF) and the D0 experiment are being modified to cope with the higher luminosity and shorter bunchspacing of the Tevatron. New detector components, higher event complexity, and an increased data volume require changes from the data acquisition systems up to the analysis systems. In this paper we present a summary of the computing models of the two experiments for Run II

  2. Computing Models of CDF and D0 in Run II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lammel, S.

    1997-01-01

    The next collider run of the Fermilab Tevatron, Run II, is scheduled for autumn of 1999. Both experiments, the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF) and the D0 experiment are being modified to cope with the higher luminosity and shorter bunch spacing of the Tevatron. New detector components, higher event complexity, and an increased data volume require changes from the data acquisition systems up to the analysis systems. In this paper we present a summary of the computing models of the two experiments for Run II

  3. Meteorological monitoring for dose assessment and emergency response modeling - how much is enough?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glantz, C.S.

    1990-01-01

    Individuals responsible for emergency response or environmental/dose assessment routinely ask if there are enough meteorological data to adequately support their objectives. The answer requires detailed consideration of the intended applications, capabilities of the atmospheric dispersion model data, pollutant release characteristics, terrain in the modeling region, and size and distribution of the human population in the modeling domain. The meteorologist's detailed knowledge of, and experience in, studying atmospheric transport and diffusion can assist in determining the appropriate level of meteorological monitoring

  4. Numerical Weather Prediction Models on Linux Boxes as tools in meteorological education in Hungary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyongyosi, A. Z.; Andre, K.; Salavec, P.; Horanyi, A.; Szepszo, G.; Mille, M.; Tasnadi, P.; Weidiger, T.

    2012-04-01

    . Numerical modeling became a common tool in the daily practice of weather experts forecasters due to the i) increasing user demands for weather data by the costumers, ii) the growth in computer resources, iii) numerical weather prediction systems available for integration on affordable, off the shelf computers and iv) available input data (from ECMWF or NCEP) for model integrations. Beside learning the theoretical basis, since the last year. Students in their MSc or BSc Thesis Research or in Student's Research ProjectsStudent's Research Projects h have the opportunity to run numerical models and to analyze the outputs for different purposes including wind energy estimation, simulation of the dynamics of a polar low, and subtropical cyclones, analysis of the isentropic potential vorticity field, examination of coupled atmospheric dispersion models, etc. A special course in the application of numerical modeling has been held (is being announced for the upcoming semester) (is being announced for the upcoming semester) for our students in order to improve their skills on this field. Several numerical model (NRIPR ETA and WRF) systems have been adapted in the University and integrated WRF have been tested and used for the geographical region of the Carpathian Basin (NRIPR, ETA and WRF). Recently ALADIN/CHAPEAU the academic version of the ARPEGE ALADIN cy33t1 meso-scale numerical weather prediction model system (which is the operational forecasting tool of our National Weather Service) has been installed at our Institute. ALADIN is the operational forecasting model of the Hungarian Meteorological Service and developed in the framework of the international ALADIN co-operation. Our main objectives are i) the analysis of different typical weather situations, ii) fine tuning of parameterization schemes and the iii) comparison of the ALADIN/CHAPEAU and WRF model outputs based on case studies. The necessary hardware and software innovations has have been done. In the presentation the

  5. Modeling the Effects of Meteorological Conditions on the Neutron Flux

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-22

    about 2% between day and night on a given day [2]. In the 1960s, the launch of satellites allowed scientists to measure the sun’s cosmic rays outside...hour, a 20% variation, over five months of data collection with large variation between days . Meteorological data were collected with two commercially...contributes to the formation of the neutron flux. To account for the earth’s magnetic field, scientists have done extensive three-dimensional analysis

  6. Selection of some meteorological fluctuations to create forecasting models of NO2 in Jinamar (Gran Canarias)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vera Castellano, A.; Lopez Cancio, J.; Corujo Jimenez, J.

    1997-01-01

    The study of meteorological fluctuations that have been reported in urban and semi urban zones has reached in the last years an increasing importance to environmental pollution researches because its knowledge permits the elaboration of empirical models able to predict periods of potential pollution in these zones. In this work, it has been made use of the data on concentrations of NO 2 supplied by an chemiluminescent analyser and the meteorological data provided by a meteorological station located in the surroundings of the analyser, in order to determine the variables that have taken part in the elaboration of a forecasting model of this pollutant in Jinamar Valley. (Author) 15 refs

  7. Optimizing Time Intervals of Meteorological Data Used with Atmospheric Dose Modeling at SRS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simpkins, A.A.

    1999-01-01

    Measured tritium oxide concentrations in air have been compared with calculated values using routine release Gaussian plume models for different time intervals of meteorological data. These comparisons determined an optimum time interval of meteorological data used with atmospheric dose models at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Meteorological data of varying time intervals (1-yr to 10-yr) were used for the comparison. Insignificant differences are seen in using a one-year database as opposed to a five-year database. Use of a ten-year database results in slightly more conservative results. For meteorological databases of length one to five years the mean ratio of predicted to measured tritium oxide concentrations is approximately 1.25 whereas for the ten-year meteorological database the ration is closer to 1.35. Currently at the Savannah River Site a meteorological database of five years duration is used for all dose models. This study suggests no substantially improved accuracy using meteorological files of shorter or longer time intervals

  8. Verification of a prognostic meteorological and air pollution model for year-long predictions in the Kwinana industrial region of Western Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurley, P.J.; Blockley, A.; Rayner, K.

    2001-01-01

    A prognostic air pollution model (TAPM) has been used to predict meteorology and sulphur dioxide concentration in the Kwinana industrial region of Western Australia for 1997, with a view to verifying TAPM for use in environmental impact assessments and associated air pollution studies. The regulatory plume model, DISPMOD, developed for the Kwinana region has also been run using both an observationally based meteorological file (denoted DISPMOD-O) and using a TAPM-based meteorological file (denoted DISPMOD-T). TAPM predictions of the meteorology for 1997 compare well with the observed values at each of the five monitoring sites. Root mean square error and index of agreement values for temperature and winds indicate that TAPM performs well at predicting the meteorology, compared to the performance of similar models from other studies. The yearly average, 99.9 percentile, maximum and mean of the top 10 ground-level sulphur dioxide concentrations for 1997 were predicted well by all of the model runs, although DISPMOD-O and DISPMOD-T tended to overpredict extreme statistics at sites furthest from the sources. Overall, TAPM performed better than DISPMOD-O, which in turn performed better than DISPMOD-T, for all statistics considered, but we consider that all three sets of results are sufficiently accurate for regulatory applications. The mean of the top ten concentrations is generally considered to be a robust performance statistic for air pollution applications, and we show that compared to the site-averaged observed value of 95μgm -3 , TAPM predicted 94μgm -3 , DISPMOD-O predicted 111μgm -3 and DISPMOD-T predicted 125μgm -3 . The results indicate that the prognostic meteorological and air pollution approach to regulatory modelling used by TAPM, gives comparable or better results than the current regulatory approach used in the Kwinana region (DISPMOD), and also indicates that the approach of using a currently accepted regulatory model with a prognostically

  9. Thermally-aware composite run-time CPU power models

    OpenAIRE

    Walker, Matthew J.; Diestelhorst, Stephan; Hansson, Andreas; Balsamo, Domenico; Merrett, Geoff V.; Al-Hashimi, Bashir M.

    2016-01-01

    Accurate and stable CPU power modelling is fundamental in modern system-on-chips (SoCs) for two main reasons: 1) they enable significant online energy savings by providing a run-time manager with reliable power consumption data for controlling CPU energy-saving techniques; 2) they can be used as accurate and trusted reference models for system design and exploration. We begin by showing the limitations in typical performance monitoring counter (PMC) based power modelling approaches and illust...

  10. Online coupled regional meteorology chemistry models in Europe : Current status and prospects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baklanov, A.; Schlünzen, K.; Suppan, P.; Baldasano, J.; Brunner, D.; Aksoyoglu, S.; Carmichael, G.; Douros, J.; Flemming, J.; Forkel, R.; Galmarini, S.; Gauss, M.; Grell, G.; Hirtl, M.; Joffre, S.; Jorba, O.; Kaas, E.; Kaasik, M.; Kallos, G.; Kong, X.; Korsholm, U.; Kurganskiy, A.; Kushta, J.; Lohmann, U.; Mahura, A.; Manders-Groot, A.; Maurizi, A.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Rao, S.T.; Savage, N.; Seigneur, C.; Sokhi, R.S.; Solazzo, E.; Solomos, S.; Sørensen, B.; Tsegas, G.; Vignati, E.; Vogel, B.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-01-01

    Online coupled mesoscale meteorology atmospheric chemistry models have undergone a rapid evolution in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modelling community, these models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and regional climate modelling as they can consider

  11. Mesoscale atmospheric modelling technology as a tool for the long-term meteorological dataset development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platonov, Vladimir; Kislov, Alexander; Rivin, Gdaly; Varentsov, Mikhail; Rozinkina, Inna; Nikitin, Mikhail; Chumakov, Mikhail

    2017-04-01

    The detailed hydrodynamic modelling of meteorological parameters during the last 30 years (1985 - 2014) was performed for the Okhotsk Sea and the Sakhalin island regions. The regional non-hydrostatic atmospheric model COSMO-CLM used for this long-term simulation with 13.2, 6.6 and 2.2 km horizontal resolutions. The main objective of creation this dataset was the outlook of the investigation of statistical characteristics and the physical mechanisms of extreme weather events (primarily, wind speed extremes) on the small spatio-temporal scales. COSMO-CLM is the climate version of the well-known mesoscale COSMO model, including some modifications and extensions adapting to the long-term numerical experiments. The downscaling technique was realized and developed for the long-term simulations with three consequent nesting domains. ERA-Interim reanalysis ( 0.75 degrees resolution) used as global forcing data for the starting domain ( 13.2 km horizontal resolution), then these simulation data used as initial and boundary conditions for the next model runs over the domain with 6.6 km resolution, and similarly, for the next step to 2.2 km domain. Besides, the COSMO-CLM model configuration for 13.2 km run included the spectral nudging technique, i.e. an additional assimilation of reanalysis data not only at boundaries, but also inside the whole domain. Practically, this computational scheme realized on the SGI Altix 4700 supercomputer system in the Main Computer Center of Roshydromet and used 2,400 hours of CPU time total. According to modelling results, the verification of the obtained dataset was performed on the observation data. Estimations showed the mean error -0.5 0C, up to 2 - 3 0C RMSE in temperature, and overestimation in wind speed (RMSE is up to 2 m/s). Overall, analysis showed that the used downscaling technique with applying the COSMO-CLM model reproduced the meteorological conditions, spatial distribution, seasonal and synoptic variability of temperature and

  12. Testing the importance of accurate meteorological input fields and parameterizations in atmospheric transport modelling using DREAM - Validation against ETEX-1

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, J.; Bastrup-Birk, A.; Christensen, J.H.

    1998-01-01

    A tracer model, the DREAM, which is based on a combination of a near-range Lagrangian model and a long-range Eulerian model, has been developed. The meteorological meso-scale model, MM5V1, is implemented as a meteorological driver for the tracer model. The model system is used for studying...

  13. Mapping the Martian Meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, M.; Ross, J. D.; Solomon, N.

    1999-01-01

    The Mars-adapted version of the NASA/GISS general circulation model (GCM) has been applied to the hourly/daily simulation of the planet's meteorology over several seasonal orbits. The current running version of the model includes a diurnal solar cycle, CO2 sublimation, and a mature parameterization of upper level wave drag with a vertical domain extending from the surface up to the 6microb level. The benchmark simulations provide a four-dimensional archive for the comparative evaluation of various schemes for the retrieval of winds from anticipated polar orbiter measurements of temperatures by the Pressure Modulator Infrared Radiometer. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  14. Meteorological monitoring for environmental/dose assessment and emergency response modeling: How much is enough?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glantz, C.S.

    1989-01-01

    In evaluation the effectiveness and appropriateness of meteorological monitoring programs, managers responsible for planning and operating emergency response or environmental/dose assessment systems must routinely question whether enough meteorological data are being obtained to adequately support system applications. There is no simple answer or cookbook procedure that can be followed in generating an appropriate answer to this question. The answer must be developed through detailed consideration of the intended applications for the data, the capabilities of the models that would use the data, pollutant release characteristics, terrain in the modeling region, the size of the modeling domain, and the distribution of human population in the modeling domain. It is recommended that manager consult meteorologists when assessing these factors; the meteorologist's detailed knowledge of, and experience in, studying atmospheric transport and diffusion should assist the manager in determining the appropriate level of meteorological monitoring. 1 ref

  15. Evaluating the performance of ENVI-met model in diurnal cycles for different meteorological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acero, Juan A.; Arrizabalaga, Jon

    2018-01-01

    Urban areas are known to modify meteorological variables producing important differences in small spatial scales (i.e. microscale). These affect human thermal comfort conditions and the dispersion of pollutants, especially those emitted inside the urban area, which finally influence quality of life and the use of public open spaces. In this study, the diurnal evolution of meteorological variables measured in four urban spaces is compared with the results provided by ENVI-met (v 4.0). Measurements were carried out during 3 days with different meteorological conditions in Bilbao in the north of the Iberian Peninsula. The evaluation of the model accuracy (i.e. the degree to which modelled values approach measured values) was carried out with several quantitative difference metrics. The results for air temperature and humidity show a good agreement of measured and modelled values independently of the regional meteorological conditions. However, in the case of mean radiant temperature and wind speed, relevant differences are encountered highlighting the limitation of the model to estimate these meteorological variables precisely during diurnal cycles, in the considered evaluation conditions (sites and weather).

  16. Key Issues for Seamless Integrated Chemistry–Meteorology Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Online coupled meteorology–atmospheric chemistry models have greatly evolved in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modeling community, these integrated models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and climate modeling, as they can con...

  17. Transitioning Enhanced Land Surface Initialization and Model Verification Capabilities to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Mungai, John; Sakwa, Vincent; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Limaye, Ashutosh; Blankenship, Clay B.

    2016-01-01

    Flooding, severe weather, and drought are key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), based in Nairobi, Kenya. Atmospheric processes leading to convection, excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content, especially during anomalous conditions and dry/wet seasonal transitions. It is thus important to represent accurately land surface state variables (green vegetation fraction, soil moisture, and soil temperature) in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The NASA SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) programs in Huntsville, AL have established a working partnership with KMD to enhance its regional modeling capabilities. SPoRT and SERVIR are providing experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities for capacity building at KMD. To support its forecasting operations, KMD is running experimental configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; Skamarock et al. 2008) model on a 12-km/4-km nested regional domain over eastern Africa, incorporating the land surface datasets provided by NASA SPoRT and SERVIR. SPoRT, SERVIR, and KMD participated in two training sessions in March 2014 and June 2015 to foster the collaboration and use of unique land surface datasets and model verification capabilities. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather and climate outlooks over Eastern Africa. For enhanced land-surface initialization, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run over Eastern Africa at 3-km resolution, providing real-time land surface initialization data in place of interpolated global model soil moisture and temperature data available at coarser resolutions. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction (GVF) composites from the Suomi-NPP VIIRS instrument is being incorporated

  18. Improvement of Disease Prediction and Modeling through the Use of Meteorological Ensembles: Human Plague in Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sean M.; Monaghan, Andrew; Griffith, Kevin S.; Apangu, Titus; Mead, Paul S.; Eisen, Rebecca J.

    2012-01-01

    Climate and weather influence the occurrence, distribution, and incidence of infectious diseases, particularly those caused by vector-borne or zoonotic pathogens. Thus, models based on meteorological data have helped predict when and where human cases are most likely to occur. Such knowledge aids in targeting limited prevention and control resources and may ultimately reduce the burden of diseases. Paradoxically, localities where such models could yield the greatest benefits, such as tropical regions where morbidity and mortality caused by vector-borne diseases is greatest, often lack high-quality in situ local meteorological data. Satellite- and model-based gridded climate datasets can be used to approximate local meteorological conditions in data-sparse regions, however their accuracy varies. Here we investigate how the selection of a particular dataset can influence the outcomes of disease forecasting models. Our model system focuses on plague (Yersinia pestis infection) in the West Nile region of Uganda. The majority of recent human cases have been reported from East Africa and Madagascar, where meteorological observations are sparse and topography yields complex weather patterns. Using an ensemble of meteorological datasets and model-averaging techniques we find that the number of suspected cases in the West Nile region was negatively associated with dry season rainfall (December-February) and positively with rainfall prior to the plague season. We demonstrate that ensembles of available meteorological datasets can be used to quantify climatic uncertainty and minimize its impacts on infectious disease models. These methods are particularly valuable in regions with sparse observational networks and high morbidity and mortality from vector-borne diseases. PMID:23024750

  19. Improvement of disease prediction and modeling through the use of meteorological ensembles: human plague in Uganda.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean M Moore

    Full Text Available Climate and weather influence the occurrence, distribution, and incidence of infectious diseases, particularly those caused by vector-borne or zoonotic pathogens. Thus, models based on meteorological data have helped predict when and where human cases are most likely to occur. Such knowledge aids in targeting limited prevention and control resources and may ultimately reduce the burden of diseases. Paradoxically, localities where such models could yield the greatest benefits, such as tropical regions where morbidity and mortality caused by vector-borne diseases is greatest, often lack high-quality in situ local meteorological data. Satellite- and model-based gridded climate datasets can be used to approximate local meteorological conditions in data-sparse regions, however their accuracy varies. Here we investigate how the selection of a particular dataset can influence the outcomes of disease forecasting models. Our model system focuses on plague (Yersinia pestis infection in the West Nile region of Uganda. The majority of recent human cases have been reported from East Africa and Madagascar, where meteorological observations are sparse and topography yields complex weather patterns. Using an ensemble of meteorological datasets and model-averaging techniques we find that the number of suspected cases in the West Nile region was negatively associated with dry season rainfall (December-February and positively with rainfall prior to the plague season. We demonstrate that ensembles of available meteorological datasets can be used to quantify climatic uncertainty and minimize its impacts on infectious disease models. These methods are particularly valuable in regions with sparse observational networks and high morbidity and mortality from vector-borne diseases.

  20. Propagation of hydro-meteorological uncertainty in a model cascade framework to inundation prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Rincón, J. P.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Breña-Naranjo, J. A.

    2015-07-01

    This investigation aims to study the propagation of meteorological uncertainty within a cascade modelling approach to flood prediction. The methodology was comprised of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, a distributed rainfall-runoff model and a 2-D hydrodynamic model. The uncertainty evaluation was carried out at the meteorological and hydrological levels of the model chain, which enabled the investigation of how errors that originated in the rainfall prediction interact at a catchment level and propagate to an estimated inundation area and depth. For this, a hindcast scenario is utilised removing non-behavioural ensemble members at each stage, based on the fit with observed data. At the hydrodynamic level, an uncertainty assessment was not incorporated; instead, the model was setup following guidelines for the best possible representation of the case study. The selected extreme event corresponds to a flood that took place in the southeast of Mexico during November 2009, for which field data (e.g. rain gauges; discharge) and satellite imagery were available. Uncertainty in the meteorological model was estimated by means of a multi-physics ensemble technique, which is designed to represent errors from our limited knowledge of the processes generating precipitation. In the hydrological model, a multi-response validation was implemented through the definition of six sets of plausible parameters from past flood events. Precipitation fields from the meteorological model were employed as input in a distributed hydrological model, and resulting flood hydrographs were used as forcing conditions in the 2-D hydrodynamic model. The evolution of skill within the model cascade shows a complex aggregation of errors between models, suggesting that in valley-filling events hydro-meteorological uncertainty has a larger effect on inundation depths than that observed in estimated flood inundation extents.

  1. New Constraints on the running-mass inflation model

    OpenAIRE

    Covi, Laura; Lyth, David H.; Melchiorri, Alessandro

    2002-01-01

    We evaluate new observational constraints on the two-parameter scale-dependent spectral index predicted by the running-mass inflation model by combining the latest Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) anisotropy measurements with the recent 2dFGRS data on the matter power spectrum, with Lyman $\\alpha $ forest data and finally with theoretical constraints on the reionization redshift. We find that present data still allow significant scale-dependence of $n$, which occurs in a physically reasonabl...

  2. Black hole constraints on the running-mass inflation model

    OpenAIRE

    Leach, Samuel M; Grivell, Ian J; Liddle, Andrew R

    2000-01-01

    The running-mass inflation model, which has strong motivation from particle physics, predicts density perturbations whose spectral index is strongly scale-dependent. For a large part of parameter space the spectrum rises sharply to short scales. In this paper we compute the production of primordial black holes, using both analytic and numerical calculation of the density perturbation spectra. Observational constraints from black hole production are shown to exclude a large region of otherwise...

  3. The running-mass inflation model and WMAP

    OpenAIRE

    Covi, Laura; Lyth, David H.; Melchiorri, Alessandro; Odman, Carolina J.

    2004-01-01

    We consider the observational constraints on the running-mass inflationary model, and in particular on the scale-dependence of the spectral index, from the new Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) anisotropy measurements performed by WMAP and from new clustering data from the SLOAN survey. We find that the data strongly constraints a significant positive scale-dependence of $n$, and we translate the analysis into bounds on the physical parameters of the inflaton potential. Looking deeper into sp...

  4. Random forest meteorological normalisation models for Swiss PM10 trend analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grange, Stuart K.; Carslaw, David C.; Lewis, Alastair C.; Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph

    2018-05-01

    Meteorological normalisation is a technique which accounts for changes in meteorology over time in an air quality time series. Controlling for such changes helps support robust trend analysis because there is more certainty that the observed trends are due to changes in emissions or chemistry, not changes in meteorology. Predictive random forest models (RF; a decision tree machine learning technique) were grown for 31 air quality monitoring sites in Switzerland using surface meteorological, synoptic scale, boundary layer height, and time variables to explain daily PM10 concentrations. The RF models were used to calculate meteorologically normalised trends which were formally tested and evaluated using the Theil-Sen estimator. Between 1997 and 2016, significantly decreasing normalised PM10 trends ranged between -0.09 and -1.16 µg m-3 yr-1 with urban traffic sites experiencing the greatest mean decrease in PM10 concentrations at -0.77 µg m-3 yr-1. Similar magnitudes have been reported for normalised PM10 trends for earlier time periods in Switzerland which indicates PM10 concentrations are continuing to decrease at similar rates as in the past. The ability for RF models to be interpreted was leveraged using partial dependence plots to explain the observed trends and relevant physical and chemical processes influencing PM10 concentrations. Notably, two regimes were suggested by the models which cause elevated PM10 concentrations in Switzerland: one related to poor dispersion conditions and a second resulting from high rates of secondary PM generation in deep, photochemically active boundary layers. The RF meteorological normalisation process was found to be robust, user friendly and simple to implement, and readily interpretable which suggests the technique could be useful in many air quality exploratory data analysis situations.

  5. Running of radiative neutrino masses: the scotogenic model — revisited

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Merle, Alexander; Platscher, Moritz [Max-Planck-Institut für Physik (Werner-Heisenberg-Institut), Föhringer Ring 6, 80805 München (Germany)

    2015-11-23

    A few years ago, it had been shown that effects stemming from renormalisation group running can be quite large in the scotogenic model, where neutrinos obtain their mass only via a 1-loop diagram (or, more generally, in many models in which the light neutrino mass is generated via quantum corrections at loop-level). We present a new computation of the renormalisation group equations (RGEs) for the scotogenic model, thereby updating previous results. We discuss the matching in detail, in particular in what regards the different mass spectra possible for the new particles involved. We furthermore develop approximate analytical solutions to the RGEs for an extensive list of illustrative cases, covering all general tendencies that can appear in the model. Comparing them with fully numerical solutions, we give a comprehensive discussion of the running in the scotogenic model. Our approach is mainly top-down, but we also discuss an attempt to get information on the values of the fundamental parameters when inputting the low-energy measured quantities in a bottom-up manner. This work serves the basis for a full parameter scan of the model, thereby relating its low- and high-energy phenomenology, to fully exploit the available information.

  6. Using Deep Learning Model for Meteorological Satellite Cloud Image Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, X.

    2017-12-01

    A satellite cloud image contains much weather information such as precipitation information. Short-time cloud movement forecast is important for precipitation forecast and is the primary means for typhoon monitoring. The traditional methods are mostly using the cloud feature matching and linear extrapolation to predict the cloud movement, which makes that the nonstationary process such as inversion and deformation during the movement of the cloud is basically not considered. It is still a hard task to predict cloud movement timely and correctly. As deep learning model could perform well in learning spatiotemporal features, to meet this challenge, we could regard cloud image prediction as a spatiotemporal sequence forecasting problem and introduce deep learning model to solve this problem. In this research, we use a variant of Gated-Recurrent-Unit(GRU) that has convolutional structures to deal with spatiotemporal features and build an end-to-end model to solve this forecast problem. In this model, both the input and output are spatiotemporal sequences. Compared to Convolutional LSTM(ConvLSTM) model, this model has lower amount of parameters. We imply this model on GOES satellite data and the model perform well.

  7. Meteorological Modeling Using the WRF-ARW Model for Grand Bay Intensive Studies of Atmospheric Mercury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fong Ngan

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Measurements at the Grand Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve support a range of research activities aimed at improving the understanding of the atmospheric fate and transport of mercury. Routine monitoring was enhanced by two intensive measurement periods conducted at the site in summer 2010 and spring 2011. Detailed meteorological data are required to properly represent the weather conditions, to determine the transport and dispersion of plumes and to understand the wet and dry deposition of mercury. To describe the mesoscale features that might influence future plume calculations for mercury episodes during the Grand Bay Intensive campaigns, fine-resolution meteorological simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model were conducted with various initialization and nudging configurations. The WRF simulations with nudging generated reasonable results in comparison with conventional observations in the region and measurements obtained at the Grand Bay site, including surface and sounding data. The grid nudging, together with observational nudging, had a positive effect on wind prediction. However, the nudging of mass fields (temperature and moisture led to overestimates of precipitation, which may introduce significant inaccuracies if the data were to be used for subsequent atmospheric mercury modeling. The regional flow prediction was also influenced by the reanalysis data used to initialize the WRF simulations. Even with observational nudging, the summer case simulation results in the fine resolution domain inherited features of the reanalysis data, resulting in different regional wind patterns. By contrast, the spring intensive period showed less influence from the reanalysis data.

  8. Prediction Model for Demands of the Health Meteorological Information Using a Decision Tree Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jina Oh, RN, PhD

    2010-09-01

    Conclusions: It can be effectively used as a reference model for future studies and is a suggested direction in health meteorological information service and policy development. We suggest health forecasting as a nursing service and a primary health care network for healthier and more comfortable life.

  9. A Method for Evaluation of Model-Generated Vertical Profiles of Meteorological Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    evaluated WRF output for the boundary layer over Svalbard in the Arctic in terms of height above ground compared to tower and tethered balloon ...Valparaiso, Chile; 2011. Dutsch ML. Evaluation of the WRF model based on observations made by controlled meteorological balloons in the atmospheric

  10. Meteorological Uncertainty of atmospheric Dispersion model results (MUD)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Amstrup, Bjarne; Feddersen, Henrik

    The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario....

  11. Use of data assimilation procedures in the meteorological pre-processors of decision support systems to improve the meteorological input of atmospheric dispersion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovalets, I.; Andronopoulos, S.; Bartzis, J.G.

    2003-01-01

    Full text: The Atmospheric Dispersion Models (ADMs) play a key role in decision support systems for nuclear emergency management, as they are used to determine the current, and predict the future spatial distribution of radionuclides after an accidental release of radioactivity to the atmosphere. Meteorological pre-processors (MPPs), usually act as interface between the ADMs and the incoming meteorological data. Therefore the quality of the results of the ADMs crucially depends on the input that they receive from the MPPs. The meteorological data are measurements from one or more stations in the vicinity of the nuclear power plant and/or prognostic data from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models of National Weather Services. The measurements are representative of the past and current local conditions, while the NWP data cover a wider range in space and future time, where no measurements exist. In this respect, the simultaneous use of both by an MPP immediately poses the questions of consistency and of the appropriate methodology for reconciliation of the two kinds of meteorological data. The main objective of the work presented in this paper is the introduction of data assimilation (DA) techniques in the MPP of the RODOS (Real-time On-line Decision Support) system for nuclear emergency management in Europe, developed under the European Project 'RODOS-Migration', to reconcile the NWP data with the local observations coming from the meteorological stations. More specifically, in this paper: the methodological approach for simultaneous use of both meteorological measurements and NWP data in the MPP is presented; the method is validated by comparing results of calculations with experimental data; future ways of improvement of the meteorological input for the calculations of the atmospheric dispersion in the RODOS system are discussed. The methodological approach for solving the DA problem developed in this work is based on the method of optimal interpolation (OI

  12. The effective Standard Model after LHC Run I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellis, John; Sanz, Verónica; You, Tevong

    2015-01-01

    We treat the Standard Model as the low-energy limit of an effective field theory that incorporates higher-dimensional operators to capture the effects of decoupled new physics. We consider the constraints imposed on the coefficients of dimension-6 operators by electroweak precision tests (EWPTs), applying a framework for the effects of dimension-6 operators on electroweak precision tests that is more general than the standard S,T formalism, and use measurements of Higgs couplings and the kinematics of associated Higgs production at the Tevatron and LHC, as well as triple-gauge couplings at the LHC. We highlight the complementarity between EWPTs, Tevatron and LHC measurements in obtaining model-independent limits on the effective Standard Model after LHC Run 1. We illustrate the combined constraints with the example of the two-Higgs doublet model.

  13. The Effective Standard Model after LHC Run I

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; You, Tevong

    2015-01-01

    We treat the Standard Model as the low-energy limit of an effective field theory that incorporates higher-dimensional operators to capture the effects of decoupled new physics. We consider the constraints imposed on the coefficients of dimension-6 operators by electroweak precision tests (EWPTs), applying a framework for the effects of dimension-6 operators on electroweak precision tests that is more general than the standard $S,T$ formalism, and use measurements of Higgs couplings and the kinematics of associated Higgs production at the Tevatron and LHC, as well as triple-gauge couplings at the LHC. We highlight the complementarity between EWPTs, Tevatron and LHC measurements in obtaining model-independent limits on the effective Standard Model after LHC Run~1. We illustrate the combined constraints with the example of the two-Higgs doublet model.

  14. Forecasting daily meteorological time series using ARIMA and regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murat, Małgorzata; Malinowska, Iwona; Gos, Magdalena; Krzyszczak, Jaromir

    2018-04-01

    The daily air temperature and precipitation time series recorded between January 1, 1980 and December 31, 2010 in four European sites (Jokioinen, Dikopshof, Lleida and Lublin) from different climatic zones were modeled and forecasted. In our forecasting we used the methods of the Box-Jenkins and Holt- Winters seasonal auto regressive integrated moving-average, the autoregressive integrated moving-average with external regressors in the form of Fourier terms and the time series regression, including trend and seasonality components methodology with R software. It was demonstrated that obtained models are able to capture the dynamics of the time series data and to produce sensible forecasts.

  15. Online-coupled meteorology and chemistry models: history, current status, and outlook

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The climate-chemistry-aerosol-cloud-radiation feedbacks are important processes occurring in the atmosphere. Accurately simulating those feedbacks requires fully-coupled meteorology, climate, and chemistry models and presents significant challenges in terms of both scientific understanding and computational demand. This paper reviews the history and current status of the development and application of online-coupled meteorology and chemistry models, with a focus on five representative models developed in the US including GATOR-GCMOM, WRF/Chem, CAM3, MIRAGE, and Caltech unified GCM. These models represent the current status and/or the state-of-the science treatments of online-coupled models worldwide. Their major model features, typical applications, and physical/chemical treatments are compared with a focus on model treatments of aerosol and cloud microphysics and aerosol-cloud interactions. Aerosol feedbacks to planetary boundary layer meteorology and aerosol indirect effects are illustrated with case studies for some of these models. Future research needs for model development, improvement, application, as well as major challenges for online-coupled models are discussed.

  16. Bridging the Radiative Transfer Models for Meteorology and Solar Energy Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Y.; Sengupta, M.

    2017-12-01

    Radiative transfer models are used to compute solar radiation reaching the earth surface and play an important role in both meteorology and solar energy studies. Therefore, they are designed to meet the needs of specialized applications. For instance, radiative transfer models for meteorology seek to provide more accurate cloudy-sky radiation compared to models used in solar energy that are geared towards accuracy in clear-sky conditions associated with the maximum solar resource. However, models for solar energy applications are often computationally faster, as the complex solution of the radiative transfer equation is parameterized by atmospheric properties that can be acquired from surface- or satellite-based observations. This study introduces the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) recent efforts to combine the advantages of radiative transfer models designed for meteorology and solar energy applictions. A fast all-sky radiation model, FARMS-NIT, was developed to efficiently compute narrowband all-sky irradiances over inclined photovoltaic (PV) panels. This new model utilizes the optical preperties from a solar energy model, SMARTS, to computes surface radiation by considering all possible paths of photon transmission and the relevent scattering and absorption attenuation. For cloudy-sky conditions, cloud bidirectional transmittance functions (BTDFs) are provided by a precomputed lookup table (LUT) by LibRadtran. Our initial results indicate that FARMS-NIT has an accuracy that is similar to LibRadtran, a highly accurate multi-stream model, but is significantly more efficient. The development and validation of this model will be presented.

  17. Meteorological Uncertainty of atmospheric Dispersion model results (MUD)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Amstrup, Bjarne; Feddersen, Henrik

    The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the ‘most likely’ di...

  18. An intercomparison of several diagnostic meteorological processors used in mesoscale air quality modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vimont, J.C. [National Park Service, Lakewood, CO (United States); Scire, J.S. [Sigma Research Corp., Concord, MA (United States)

    1994-12-31

    A major component, and area of uncertainty, in mesoscale air quality modeling, is the specification of the meteorological fields which affect the transport and dispersion of pollutants. Various options are available for estimating the wind and mixing depth fields over a mesoscale domain. Estimates of the wind field can be obtained from spatial and temporal interpolation of available observations or from diagnostic meteorological models, which estimate a meteorological field from available data and adjust those fields based on parameterizations of physical processes. A major weakness of these processors is their dependence on spatially and temporally sparse input data, particularly upper air data. These problems are exacerbated in regions of complex terrain and along the shorelines of large bodies of water. Similarly, the estimation of mixing depth is also reliant upon sparse observations and the parameterization of the convective and mechanical processes. The meteorological processors examined in this analysis were developed to drive different Lagrangian puff models. This paper describes the algorithms these processors use to estimate the wind fields and mixing depth fields.

  19. Investigations of the adequacy of the meteorological transport model developed for the reactor safety study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spring, J.L.; Brown, W.D.; Church, H.W.; McGrath, P.E.; Ritchie, L.T.; Russo, A.J.; Steck, G.P.; Wayland, J.R.; Blond, R.M.; Wall, I.B.

    1978-01-01

    A computer model (CRAC) was developed for the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) [1] to estimate the consequences of postulated accidents at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. One hundred reactors at 68 sites were included in the study. The 68 sites were divided into 6 classes according to their geographic location and meteorology. For each site class, a composite population distribution was constructed from the true population distributions at each of the sites comprising that class, and a reference site was chosen for which a full year of meteorological data (wind speed, atmospheric stability, occurrence of rain) was obtained. Given data about a postulated accident (probability, amounts of the released radionuclides, etc.) and the reference reactor site (meteorology, composite population, land usage), CRAC was used to calculate the atmospheric dispersion and ground deposition of the released radionuclides (Gaussian plume submodel) and the health effects (dosimetric and dose response submodels) and costs (land interdiction and decontamination submodel) resulting from their release. The Gaussian plume model used in CRAC either did not treat or treated simplistically a number of meteorological phenomena. Simplified models were used to treat plume rise, inversion layers, and rainstorms, while wind shear, wind direction, and correlations between wind fields and population distributions were not treated at all. Some of the effects of all of these phenomena on predictions of accident consequences as calculated using CRAC have been or are being investigated. The results of these studies are summarized

  20. New constraints on the running-mass inflation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Covi, L.; Lyth, D.H.; Melchiorri, A.

    2002-10-01

    We evaluate new observational constraints on the two-parameter scale-dependent spectral index predicted by the running-mass inflation model by combining the latest cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy measurements with the recent 2dFGRS data on the matter power spectrum, with Lyman α forest data and finally with theoretical constraints on the reionization redshift. We find that present data still allow significant scale-dependence of n, which occurs in a physically reasonable regime of parameter space. (orig.)

  1. 1-D blood flow modelling in a running human body.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szabó, Viktor; Halász, Gábor

    2017-07-01

    In this paper an attempt was made to simulate blood flow in a mobile human arterial network, specifically, in a running human subject. In order to simulate the effect of motion, a previously published immobile 1-D model was modified by including an inertial force term into the momentum equation. To calculate inertial force, gait analysis was performed at different levels of speed. Our results show that motion has a significant effect on the amplitudes of the blood pressure and flow rate but the average values are not effected significantly.

  2. One multi-media environmental system with linkage between meteorology/ hydrology/ air quality models and water quality model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, C.; Lynch, J. A.; Dennis, R. L.

    2016-12-01

    The biogeochemical processing of nitrogen and associated pollutants is driven by meteorological and hydrological processes in conjunction with pollutant loading. There are feedbacks between meteorology and hydrology that will be affected by land-use change and climate change. Changes in meteorology will affect pollutant deposition. It is important to account for those feedbacks and produce internally consistent simulations of meteorology, hydrology, and pollutant loading to drive the (watershed/water quality) biogeochemical models. In this study, the ecological response to emission reductions in streams in the Potomac watershed was evaluated. Firstly, we simulated the deposition by using the fully coupled Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CAMQ) model; secondly, we created the hydrological data by the offline linked Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the WRF model. Lastly, we investigated the water quality by one comprehensive/environment model, namely the linkage of CMAQ, WRF, VIC and the Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchment (MAGIC) model from 2002 to 2010.The simulated results (such as NO3, SO4, and SBC) fit well to the observed values. The linkage provides a generally accurate, well-tested tool for evaluating sensitivities to varying meteorology and environmental changes on acidification and other biogeochemical processes, with capability to comprehensively explore strategic policy and management design.

  3. Evaluation of data assimilation techniques for a mesoscale meteorological model and their effects on air quality model results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amicarelli, A; Pelliccioni, A [ISPESL - Dipartimento Insediamenti Produttivi e Interazione con l' Ambiente, Via Fontana Candida, 1 00040 Monteporzio Catone (RM) Italy (Italy); Finardi, S; Silibello, C [ARIANET, via Gilino 9, 20128 Milano (Italy); Gariazzo, C

    2008-05-01

    Data assimilation techniques are methods to limit the growth of errors in a dynamical model by allowing observations distributed in space and time to force (nudge) model solutions. They have become common for meteorological model applications in recent years, especially to enhance weather forecast and to support air-quality studies. In order to investigate the influence of different data assimilation techniques on the meteorological fields produced by RAMS model, and to evaluate their effects on the ozone and PM{sub 10} concentrations predicted by FARM model, several numeric experiments were conducted over the urban area of Rome, Italy, during a summer episode.

  4. Evaluation of data assimilation techniques for a mesoscale meteorological model and their effects on air quality model results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amicarelli, A.; Gariazzo, C.; Finardi, S.; Pelliccioni, A.; Silibello, C.

    2008-05-01

    Data assimilation techniques are methods to limit the growth of errors in a dynamical model by allowing observations distributed in space and time to force (nudge) model solutions. They have become common for meteorological model applications in recent years, especially to enhance weather forecast and to support air-quality studies. In order to investigate the influence of different data assimilation techniques on the meteorological fields produced by RAMS model, and to evaluate their effects on the ozone and PM10 concentrations predicted by FARM model, several numeric experiments were conducted over the urban area of Rome, Italy, during a summer episode.

  5. Evaluation of data assimilation techniques for a mesoscale meteorological model and their effects on air quality model results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amicarelli, A; Pelliccioni, A; Finardi, S; Silibello, C; Gariazzo, C

    2008-01-01

    Data assimilation techniques are methods to limit the growth of errors in a dynamical model by allowing observations distributed in space and time to force (nudge) model solutions. They have become common for meteorological model applications in recent years, especially to enhance weather forecast and to support air-quality studies. In order to investigate the influence of different data assimilation techniques on the meteorological fields produced by RAMS model, and to evaluate their effects on the ozone and PM 10 concentrations predicted by FARM model, several numeric experiments were conducted over the urban area of Rome, Italy, during a summer episode

  6. The Impacts of Different Meteorology Data Sets on Nitrogen Fate and Transport in the SWAT Watershed Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this study, we investigated how different meteorology data sets impacts nitrogen fate and transport responses in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We used two meteorology data sets: National Climatic Data Center (observed) and Mesoscale Model 5/Weather Research ...

  7. Modelling regional scale surface fluxes, meteorology and CO2 mixing ratios for the Cabauw tower in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tolk, L.F.; Peters, W.; Meesters, A.G.C.A.; Groenendijk, M.; Vermeulen, A.T.; Steeneveld, G.J.; Dolman, A.J.

    2009-01-01

    We simulated meteorology and atmospheric CO2 transport over the Netherlands with the mesoscale model RAMS-Leaf3 coupled to the biospheric CO2 flux model 5PM. The results were compared with meteorological and CO2 observations, with emphasis on the tall tower of Cabauw. An analysis of the coupled

  8. Land surface modelling in hydrology and meteorology – lessons learned from the Baltic Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. P. Graham

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available By both tradition and purpose, the land parameterization schemes of hydrological and meteorological models differ greatly. Meteorologists are concerned primarily with solving the energy balance, whereas hydrologists are most interested in the water balance. Meteorological climate models typically have multi-layered soil parameterisation that solves temperature fluxes numerically with diffusive equations. The same approach is carried over to a similar treatment of water transport. Hydrological models are not usually so interested in soil temperatures, but must provide a reasonable representation of soil moisture to get runoff right. To treat the heterogeneity of the soil, many hydrological models use only one layer with a statistical representation of soil variability. Such a hydrological model can be used on large scales while taking subgrid variability into account. Hydrological models also include lateral transport of water – an imperative if' river discharge is to be estimated. The concept of a complexity chain for coupled modelling systems is introduced, together with considerations for mixing model components. Under BALTEX (Baltic Sea Experiment and SWECLIM (Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, a large-scale hydrological model of runoff in the Baltic Basin is used to review atmospheric climate model simulations. This incorporates both the runoff record and hydrological modelling experience into atmospheric model development. Results from two models are shown. A conclusion is that the key to improved models may be less complexity. Perhaps the meteorological models should keep their multi-layered approach for modelling soil temperature, but add a simpler, yet physically consistent, hydrological approach for modelling snow processes and water transport in the soil. Keywords: land surface modelling; hydrological modelling; atmospheric climate models; subgrid variability; Baltic Basin

  9. Study of solar radiation prediction and modeling of relationships between solar radiation and meteorological variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Huaiwei; Zhao, Na; Zeng, Xiaofan; Yan, Dong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We investigate relationships between solar radiation and meteorological variables. • A strong relationship exists between solar radiation and sunshine duration. • Daily global radiation can be estimated accurately with ARMAX–GARCH models. • MGARCH model was applied to investigate time-varying relationships. - Abstract: The traditional approaches that employ the correlations between solar radiation and other measured meteorological variables are commonly utilized in studies. It is important to investigate the time-varying relationships between meteorological variables and solar radiation to determine which variables have the strongest correlations with solar radiation. In this study, the nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMAX–GARCH) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) time-series approaches were applied to investigate the associations between solar radiation and several meteorological variables. For these investigations, the long-term daily global solar radiation series measured at three stations from January 1, 2004 until December 31, 2007 were used in this study. Stronger relationships were observed to exist between global solar radiation and sunshine duration than between solar radiation and temperature difference. The results show that 82–88% of the temporal variations of the global solar radiation were captured by the sunshine-duration-based ARMAX–GARCH models and 55–68% of daily variations were captured by the temperature-difference-based ARMAX–GARCH models. The advantages of the ARMAX–GARCH models were also confirmed by comparison of Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) and neutral network (ANN) models in the estimation of daily global solar radiation. The strong heteroscedastic persistency of the global solar radiation series was revealed by the AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized Auto

  10. Machine learning modeling of plant phenology based on coupling satellite and gridded meteorological dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czernecki, Bartosz; Nowosad, Jakub; Jabłońska, Katarzyna

    2018-04-01

    Changes in the timing of plant phenological phases are important proxies in contemporary climate research. However, most of the commonly used traditional phenological observations do not give any coherent spatial information. While consistent spatial data can be obtained from airborne sensors and preprocessed gridded meteorological data, not many studies robustly benefit from these data sources. Therefore, the main aim of this study is to create and evaluate different statistical models for reconstructing, predicting, and improving quality of phenological phases monitoring with the use of satellite and meteorological products. A quality-controlled dataset of the 13 BBCH plant phenophases in Poland was collected for the period 2007-2014. For each phenophase, statistical models were built using the most commonly applied regression-based machine learning techniques, such as multiple linear regression, lasso, principal component regression, generalized boosted models, and random forest. The quality of the models was estimated using a k-fold cross-validation. The obtained results showed varying potential for coupling meteorological derived indices with remote sensing products in terms of phenological modeling; however, application of both data sources improves models' accuracy from 0.6 to 4.6 day in terms of obtained RMSE. It is shown that a robust prediction of early phenological phases is mostly related to meteorological indices, whereas for autumn phenophases, there is a stronger information signal provided by satellite-derived vegetation metrics. Choosing a specific set of predictors and applying a robust preprocessing procedures is more important for final results than the selection of a particular statistical model. The average RMSE for the best models of all phenophases is 6.3, while the individual RMSE vary seasonally from 3.5 to 10 days. Models give reliable proxy for ground observations with RMSE below 5 days for early spring and late spring phenophases. For

  11. Cairo city air quality research initiative part-i: A meteorological modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-AAl, M.M.

    2001-01-01

    The modified meteorological model Hotmac (Higher order turbulence model for atmospheric circulation) is a three-dimensional and finite grid model developed primarily for simospheric motions and based on solving the conservation equations of mass momentum, energy and turbulent kinetic energy. The model is used for studying air quality of cairo cty and its surrounding to treat a domain that includes an urbanized area for understanding problems of air pollution. The acquired terrain (elevation) data for Egypt was obtained. The local and upper level geostrophic data were provided by rawinsonde of wind speed and direction, temperature,relative humidity, water vapour, and pressure The potential temperature was obtained by a computer program. The meteorological data was obtained for helwan site, about 20 kilometer south of cairo city. Three mested grids were used, with grids resolutions of 2 6 and 18 kilometers to cover a domain of approximately 360 km that extended from the red Sea to the mediterranean Sea

  12. Modelling the long-run supply of coal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steenblik, R.P.

    1992-01-01

    There are many issues facing policy-makers in the fields of energy and the environment that require knowledge of coal supply and cost. Such questions arise in relation to decisions concerning, for example, the discontinuation of subsidies, or the effects of new environmental laws. The very complexity of these questions makes them suitable for analysis by models. Indeed, models have been used for analysing the behaviour of coal markets and the effects of public policies on them for many years. For estimating short-term responses econometric models are the most suitable. For estimating the supply of coal over the longer term, however - i.e., coal that would come from mines as yet not developed - depletion has to be taken into account. Underlying the normal supply curve relating cost to the rate of production is a curve that increases with cumulative production - what mineral economists refer to as the potential supply curve. To derive such a curve requires at some point in the analysis using process-oriented modelling techniques. Because coal supply curves can convey so succinctly information about the resource's long-run supply potential and costs, they have been influential in several major public debates on energy policy. And, within the coal industry itself, they have proved to be powerful tools for undertaking market research and long-range planning. The purpose of this paper is to describe in brief the various approaches that have been used to model long-run coal supply, to highlight their strengths, and to identify areas in which further progress is needed. (author)

  13. Simulating Storm Surge Impacts with a Coupled Atmosphere-Inundation Model with Varying Meteorological Forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra N. Ramos Valle

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Storm surge events have the potential to cause devastating damage to coastal communities. The magnitude of their impacts highlights the need for increased accuracy and real-time forecasting and predictability of storm surge. In this study, we assess two meteorological forcing configurations to hindcast the storm surge of Hurricane Sandy, and ultimately support the improvement of storm surge forecasts. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is coupled to the ADvanced CIRCulation Model (ADCIRC to determine water elevations. We perform four coupled simulations and compare storm surge estimates resulting from the use of a parametric vortex model and a full-physics atmospheric model. One simulation is forced with track-based meteorological data calculated from WRF, while three simulations are forced with the full wind and pressure field outputs from WRF simulations of varying resolutions. Experiments were compared to an ADCIRC simulation forced by National Hurricane Center best track data, as well as to station observations. Our results indicated that given accurate meteorological best track data, a parametric vortex model can accurately forecast maximum water elevations, improving upon the use of a full-physics coupled atmospheric-surge model. In the absence of a best track, atmospheric forcing in the form of full wind and pressure field from a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation prove reliable for storm surge forecasting.

  14. Assessment of NASA's Physiographic and Meteorological Datasets as Input to HSPF and SWAT Hydrological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alacron, Vladimir J.; Nigro, Joseph D.; McAnally, William H.; OHara, Charles G.; Engman, Edwin Ted; Toll, David

    2011-01-01

    This paper documents the use of simulated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer land use/land cover (MODIS-LULC), NASA-LIS generated precipitation and evapo-transpiration (ET), and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) datasets (in conjunction with standard land use, topographical and meteorological datasets) as input to hydrological models routinely used by the watershed hydrology modeling community. The study is focused in coastal watersheds in the Mississippi Gulf Coast although one of the test cases focuses in an inland watershed located in northeastern State of Mississippi, USA. The decision support tools (DSTs) into which the NASA datasets were assimilated were the Soil Water & Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF). These DSTs are endorsed by several US government agencies (EPA, FEMA, USGS) for water resources management strategies. These models use physiographic and meteorological data extensively. Precipitation gages and USGS gage stations in the region were used to calibrate several HSPF and SWAT model applications. Land use and topographical datasets were swapped to assess model output sensitivities. NASA-LIS meteorological data were introduced in the calibrated model applications for simulation of watershed hydrology for a time period in which no weather data were available (1997-2006). The performance of the NASA datasets in the context of hydrological modeling was assessed through comparison of measured and model-simulated hydrographs. Overall, NASA datasets were as useful as standard land use, topographical , and meteorological datasets. Moreover, NASA datasets were used for performing analyses that the standard datasets could not made possible, e.g., introduction of land use dynamics into hydrological simulations

  15. Application of WRF/Chem-MADRID and WRF/Polyphemus in Europe - Part 1: Model description, evaluation of meteorological predictions, and aerosol-meteorology interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Sartelet, K.; Wu, S.-Y.; Seigneur, C.

    2013-07-01

    Comprehensive model evaluation and comparison of two 3-D air quality modeling systems (i.e., the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF)/Polyphemus and WRF with chemistry and the Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ionization, and Dissolution (MADRID) (WRF/Chem-MADRID)) are conducted over Western Europe. Part 1 describes the background information for the model comparison and simulation design, the application of WRF for January and July 2001 over triple-nested domains in Western Europe at three horizontal grid resolutions: 0.5°, 0.125°, and 0.025°, and the effect of aerosol/meteorology interactions on meteorological predictions. Nine simulated meteorological variables (i.e., downward shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes (SWDOWN and LWDOWN), outgoing longwave radiation flux (OLR), temperature at 2 m (T2), specific humidity at 2 m (Q2), relative humidity at 2 m (RH2), wind speed at 10 m (WS10), wind direction at 10 m (WD10), and precipitation (Precip)) are evaluated using available observations in terms of spatial distribution, domainwide daily and site-specific hourly variations, and domainwide performance statistics. The vertical profiles of temperature, dew points, and wind speed/direction are also evaluated using sounding data. WRF demonstrates its capability in capturing diurnal/seasonal variations and spatial gradients and vertical profiles of major meteorological variables. While the domainwide performance of LWDOWN, OLR, T2, Q2, and RH2 at all three grid resolutions is satisfactory overall, large positive or negative biases occur in SWDOWN, WS10, and Precip even at 0.125° or 0.025° in both months and in WD10 in January. In addition, discrepancies between simulations and observations exist in T2, Q2, WS10, and Precip at mountain/high altitude sites and large urban center sites in both months, in particular, during snow events or thunderstorms. These results indicate the model's difficulty in capturing meteorological variables in complex terrain and

  16. Application of WRF/Chem-MADRID and WRF/Polyphemus in Europe – Part 1: Model description, evaluation of meteorological predictions, and aerosol–meteorology interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Comprehensive model evaluation and comparison of two 3-D air quality modeling systems (i.e., the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF/Polyphemus and WRF with chemistry and the Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ionization, and Dissolution (MADRID (WRF/Chem-MADRID are conducted over Western Europe. Part 1 describes the background information for the model comparison and simulation design, the application of WRF for January and July 2001 over triple-nested domains in Western Europe at three horizontal grid resolutions: 0.5°, 0.125°, and 0.025°, and the effect of aerosol/meteorology interactions on meteorological predictions. Nine simulated meteorological variables (i.e., downward shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes (SWDOWN and LWDOWN, outgoing longwave radiation flux (OLR, temperature at 2 m (T2, specific humidity at 2 m (Q2, relative humidity at 2 m (RH2, wind speed at 10 m (WS10, wind direction at 10 m (WD10, and precipitation (Precip are evaluated using available observations in terms of spatial distribution, domainwide daily and site-specific hourly variations, and domainwide performance statistics. The vertical profiles of temperature, dew points, and wind speed/direction are also evaluated using sounding data. WRF demonstrates its capability in capturing diurnal/seasonal variations and spatial gradients and vertical profiles of major meteorological variables. While the domainwide performance of LWDOWN, OLR, T2, Q2, and RH2 at all three grid resolutions is satisfactory overall, large positive or negative biases occur in SWDOWN, WS10, and Precip even at 0.125° or 0.025° in both months and in WD10 in January. In addition, discrepancies between simulations and observations exist in T2, Q2, WS10, and Precip at mountain/high altitude sites and large urban center sites in both months, in particular, during snow events or thunderstorms. These results indicate the model's difficulty in capturing meteorological variables in complex

  17. LES-based generation of high-frequency fluctuation in wind turbulence obtained by meteorological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, Tetsuro; Kawaguchi, Masaharu; Kawai, Hidenori; Tao, Tao

    2017-11-01

    The connection between a meso-scale model and a micro-scale large eddy simulation (LES) is significant to simulate the micro-scale meteorological problem such as strong convective events due to the typhoon or the tornado using LES. In these problems the mean velocity profiles and the mean wind directions change with time according to the movement of the typhoons or tornadoes. Although, a fine grid micro-scale LES could not be connected to a coarse grid meso-scale WRF directly. In LES when the grid is suddenly refined at the interface of nested grids which is normal to the mean advection the resolved shear stresses decrease due to the interpolation errors and the delay of the generation of smaller scale turbulence that can be resolved on the finer mesh. For the estimation of wind gust disaster the peak wind acting on buildings and structures has to be correctly predicted. In the case of meteorological model the velocity fluctuations have a tendency of diffusive variation without the high frequency component due to the numerically filtering effects. In order to predict the peak value of wind velocity with good accuracy, this paper proposes a LES-based method for generating the higher frequency components of velocity and temperature fields obtained by meteorological model.

  18. Modeling PM2.5 Urban Pollution Using Machine Learning and Selected Meteorological Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Kleine Deters

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Outdoor air pollution costs millions of premature deaths annually, mostly due to anthropogenic fine particulate matter (or PM2.5. Quito, the capital city of Ecuador, is no exception in exceeding the healthy levels of pollution. In addition to the impact of urbanization, motorization, and rapid population growth, particulate pollution is modulated by meteorological factors and geophysical characteristics, which complicate the implementation of the most advanced models of weather forecast. Thus, this paper proposes a machine learning approach based on six years of meteorological and pollution data analyses to predict the concentrations of PM2.5 from wind (speed and direction and precipitation levels. The results of the classification model show a high reliability in the classification of low (25 µg/m3 and low (<10 µg/m3 versus moderate (10–25 µg/m3 concentrations of PM2.5. A regression analysis suggests a better prediction of PM2.5 when the climatic conditions are getting more extreme (strong winds or high levels of precipitation. The high correlation between estimated and real data for a time series analysis during the wet season confirms this finding. The study demonstrates that the use of statistical models based on machine learning is relevant to predict PM2.5 concentrations from meteorological data.

  19. Predicting residential air exchange rates from questionnaires and meteorology: model evaluation in central North Carolina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breen, Michael S; Breen, Miyuki; Williams, Ronald W; Schultz, Bradley D

    2010-12-15

    A critical aspect of air pollution exposure models is the estimation of the air exchange rate (AER) of individual homes, where people spend most of their time. The AER, which is the airflow into and out of a building, is a primary mechanism for entry of outdoor air pollutants and removal of indoor source emissions. The mechanistic Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) AER model was linked to a leakage area model to predict AER from questionnaires and meteorology. The LBL model was also extended to include natural ventilation (LBLX). Using literature-reported parameter values, AER predictions from LBL and LBLX models were compared to data from 642 daily AER measurements across 31 detached homes in central North Carolina, with corresponding questionnaires and meteorological observations. Data was collected on seven consecutive days during each of four consecutive seasons. For the individual model-predicted and measured AER, the median absolute difference was 43% (0.17 h(-1)) and 40% (0.17 h(-1)) for the LBL and LBLX models, respectively. Additionally, a literature-reported empirical scale factor (SF) AER model was evaluated, which showed a median absolute difference of 50% (0.25 h(-1)). The capability of the LBL, LBLX, and SF models could help reduce the AER uncertainty in air pollution exposure models used to develop exposure metrics for health studies.

  20. Modeling of meteorology, chemistry and aerosol for the 2017 Utah Winter Fine Particle Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKeen, S. A.; Angevine, W. M.; McDonald, B.; Ahmadov, R.; Franchin, A.; Middlebrook, A. M.; Fibiger, D. L.; McDuffie, E. E.; Womack, C.; Brown, S. S.; Moravek, A.; Murphy, J. G.; Trainer, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Utah Winter Fine Particle Study (UWFPS-17) field project took place during January and February of 2017 within the populated region of the Great Salt Lake, Utah. The study focused on understanding the meteorology and chemistry associated with high particulate matter (PM) levels often observed near Salt Lake City during stable wintertime conditions. Detailed composition and meteorological observations were taken from the NOAA Twin-Otter aircraft and several surface sites during the study period, and extremely high aerosol conditions were encountered for two cold-pool episodes occurring in the last 2 weeks of January. A clear understanding of the photochemical and aerosol processes leading to these high PM events is still lacking. Here we present high spatiotemporal resolution simulations of meteorology, PM and chemistry over Utah from January 13 to February 1, 2017 using the WRF/Chem photochemical model. Correctly characterizing the meteorology is difficult due to the complex terrain and shallow inversion layers. We discuss the approach and limitations of the simulated meteorology, and evaluate low-level pollutant mixing using vertical profiles from missed airport approaches by the NOAA Twin-Otter performed routinely during each flight. Full photochemical simulations are calculated using NOx, ammonia and VOC emissions from the U.S. EPA NEI-2011 emissions inventory. Comparisons of the observed vertical column amounts of NOx, ammonia, aerosol nitrate and ammonium with model results shows the inventory estimates for ammonia emissions are low by a factor of four and NOx emissions are low by nearly a factor of two. The partitioning of both nitrate and NH3 between gas and particle phase depends strongly on the NH3 and NOx emissions to the model and calculated NOx to nitrate conversion rates. These rates are underestimated by gas-phase chemistry alone, even though surface snow albedo increases photolysis rates by nearly a factor of two. Several additional conversion

  1. MODELING OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GROUNDWATER FLOW AND OTHER METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES USING FUZZY LOGIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şaban YURTÇU

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, modeling of the effect of rainfall, flow and evaporation as independent variables on the change of underground water levels as dependent variables were investigated by fuzzy logic (FL. In the study, total 396 values taken from six observation stations belong to Afyon inferior basin in Akarçay from 1977 to 1989 years were used. Using the monthly average values of stations, the change of underground water level was modeled by FL. It is observed that the results obtained from FL and the observations are compatible with each other. This shows FL modeling can be used to estimate groundwater levels from the appropriate meteorological value.

  2. 2013 CEF RUN - PHASE 1 DATA ANALYSIS AND MODEL VALIDATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, A.

    2014-05-08

    Phase 1 of the 2013 Cold cap Evaluation Furnace (CEF) test was completed on June 3, 2013 after a 5-day round-the-clock feeding and pouring operation. The main goal of the test was to characterize the CEF off-gas produced from a nitric-formic acid flowsheet feed and confirm whether the CEF platform is capable of producing scalable off-gas data necessary for the revision of the DWPF melter off-gas flammability model; the revised model will be used to define new safety controls on the key operating parameters for the nitric-glycolic acid flowsheet feeds including total organic carbon (TOC). Whether the CEF off-gas data were scalable for the purpose of predicting the potential flammability of the DWPF melter exhaust was determined by comparing the predicted H{sub 2} and CO concentrations using the current DWPF melter off-gas flammability model to those measured during Phase 1; data were deemed scalable if the calculated fractional conversions of TOC-to-H{sub 2} and TOC-to-CO at varying melter vapor space temperatures were found to trend and further bound the respective measured data with some margin of safety. Being scalable thus means that for a given feed chemistry the instantaneous flow rates of H{sub 2} and CO in the DWPF melter exhaust can be estimated with some degree of conservatism by multiplying those of the respective gases from a pilot-scale melter by the feed rate ratio. This report documents the results of the Phase 1 data analysis and the necessary calculations performed to determine the scalability of the CEF off-gas data. A total of six steady state runs were made during Phase 1 under non-bubbled conditions by varying the CEF vapor space temperature from near 700 to below 300°C, as measured in a thermowell (T{sub tw}). At each steady state temperature, the off-gas composition was monitored continuously for two hours using MS, GC, and FTIR in order to track mainly H{sub 2}, CO, CO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, and organic gases such as CH{sub 4}. The standard

  3. Dynamical system approach to running Λ cosmological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stachowski, Aleksander; Szydlowski, Marek

    2016-01-01

    We study the dynamics of cosmological models with a time dependent cosmological term. We consider five classes of models; two with the non-covariant parametrization of the cosmological term Λ: Λ(H)CDM cosmologies, Λ(a)CDM cosmologies, and three with the covariant parametrization of Λ: Λ(R)CDM cosmologies, where R(t) is the Ricci scalar, Λ(φ)-cosmologies with diffusion, Λ(X)-cosmologies, where X = (1)/(2)g"α"β∇_α∇_βφ is a kinetic part of the density of the scalar field. We also consider the case of an emergent Λ(a) relation obtained from the behaviour of trajectories in a neighbourhood of an invariant submanifold. In the study of the dynamics we used dynamical system methods for investigating how an evolutionary scenario can depend on the choice of special initial conditions. We show that the methods of dynamical systems allow one to investigate all admissible solutions of a running Λ cosmology for all initial conditions. We interpret Alcaniz and Lima's approach as a scaling cosmology. We formulate the idea of an emergent cosmological term derived directly from an approximation of the exact dynamics. We show that some non-covariant parametrization of the cosmological term like Λ(a), Λ(H) gives rise to the non-physical behaviour of trajectories in the phase space. This behaviour disappears if the term Λ(a) is emergent from the covariant parametrization. (orig.)

  4. The Run 2 ATLAS Analysis Event Data Model

    CERN Document Server

    SNYDER, S; The ATLAS collaboration; NOWAK, M; EIFERT, T; BUCKLEY, A; ELSING, M; GILLBERG, D; MOYSE, E; KOENEKE, K; KRASZNAHORKAY, A

    2014-01-01

    During the LHC's first Long Shutdown (LS1) ATLAS set out to establish a new analysis model, based on the experience gained during Run 1. A key component of this is a new Event Data Model (EDM), called the xAOD. This format, which is now in production, provides the following features: A separation of the EDM into interface classes that the user code directly interacts with, and data storage classes that hold the payload data. The user sees an Array of Structs (AoS) interface, while the data is stored in a Struct of Arrays (SoA) format in memory, thus making it possible to efficiently auto-vectorise reconstruction code. A simple way of augmenting and reducing the information saved for different data objects. This makes it possible to easily decorate objects with new properties during data analysis, and to remove properties that the analysis does not need. A persistent file format that can be explored directly with ROOT, either with or without loading any additional libraries. This allows fast interactive naviga...

  5. EARTH, WIND AND FIRE: BUILDING METEOROLOGICALLY-SENSITIVE BIOGENIC AND WILDLAND FIRE EMISSION ESTIMATES FOR AIR QUALITY MODELS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emission estimates are important for ensuring the accuracy of atmospheric chemical transport models. Estimates of biogenic and wildland fire emissions, because of their sensitivity to meteorological conditions, need to be carefully constructed and closely linked with a meteorolo...

  6. Developing the Model for the GIS Applications in National Hydro-Meteorological Service in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubacka, D.; Barszczynska, M.; Madej, P.

    2003-04-01

    Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMWM) manages the national hydrological-meteorological service, the task of which is to maintain the network of stations, process data, as well issue warnings, reports and announcements. There are 5 divisions of IMWM scattered all over Poland. Each division includes numerous stations and the scientific-research departments. The data gathered, processed and analysed in IMWM are space-related, therefore spatial information systems are indispensable for its processing and visualisation. The project of GIS application in (IMWM) will be discussed in the presentation. With the divisions being so dispersed, numerous and heterogeneous in structure, GIS implementation is very complicated. On the one hand GIS should enable advanced spatial analyses to be carried out by the research, as well as data processing departments. On the other hand, it should provide passive access to a limited scope of information (e.g. for outside customers). Need analysis was carried out first. It resulted in proposals concerning the content of shared resources of geometrical data and connections with attribute data, as well as in proposals of GIS use in routine works. A model was prepared using various types of GIS software depending on the requirements of each division. It is based on standard solutions involving professional GIS, desktop GIS and simple tools for data presentation. In some departments the specialised software had to be taken into account (e.g. satellite data processing). It is necessary to develop and implement dedicated research methods for some individual tasks. The analysis of mapping requirements showed that there is a need to prepare thematic maps at least at two levels of detail. Presently, the works are concentrated on assembling thematic layers for a general map (at 1: 500000 scale) sufficient for many applications, including data visualisation in the Internet and IMWM publications, as well as the tool for measurements and

  7. Evaluation of Savannah River Plant emergency response models using standard and nonstandard meteorological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoel, D.D.

    1984-01-01

    Two computer codes have been developed for operational use in performing real time evaluations of atmospheric releases from the Savannah River Plant (SRP) in South Carolina. These codes, based on mathematical models, are part of the SRP WIND (Weather Information and Display) automated emergency response system. Accuracy of ground level concentrations from a Gaussian puff-plume model and a two-dimensional sequential puff model are being evaluated with data from a series of short range diffusion experiments using sulfur hexafluoride as a tracer. The models use meteorological data collected from 7 towers on SRP and at the 300 m WJBF-TV tower about 15 km northwest of SRP. The winds and the stability, which is based on turbulence measurements, are measured at the 60 m stack heights. These results are compared to downwind concentrations using only standard meteorological data, i.e., adjusted 10 m winds and stability determined by the Pasquill-Turner stability classification method. Scattergrams and simple statistics were used for model evaluations. Results indicate predictions within accepted limits for the puff-plume code and a bias in the sequential puff model predictions using the meteorologist-adjusted nonstandard data. 5 references, 4 figures, 2 tables

  8. Comparison of HYSPLIT-4 model simulations of the ETEX data, using meteorological input data of differing spatial and temporal resolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hess, G.D.; Mills, G.A.; Draxler, R.R.

    1997-01-01

    Model simulations of air concentrations during ETEX-1 using the HYSPLIT-4 (HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectories, version 4) code and analysed meteorological data fields provided by ECMWF and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology are presented here. The HYSPLIT-4 model is a complete system for computing simple trajectories to complex dispersion and deposition simulations using either puff or particle approaches. A mixed dispersion algorithm is employed in this study: puffs in the horizontal and particles in the vertical

  9. A Meteorological Information Mining-Based Wind Speed Model for Adequacy Assessment of Power Systems With Wind Power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Yifei; Gao, Houlei; Wu, Qiuwei

    2017-01-01

    Accurate wind speed simulation is an essential prerequisite to analyze the power systems with wind power. A wind speed model considering meteorological conditions and seasonal variations is proposed in this paper. Firstly, using the path analysis method, the influence weights of meteorological...... systems with wind power. The assessment results of the modified IEEE-RTS79 and IEEE-RTS96 demonstrated the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed model....

  10. Modeling Run Test Validity: A Meta-Analytic Approach

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Vickers, Ross

    2002-01-01

    .... This study utilized data from 166 samples (N = 5,757) to test the general hypothesis that differences in testing methods could account for the cross-situational variation in validity. Only runs >2 km...

  11. Modelling of Muscle Force Distributions During Barefoot and Shod Running

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinclair Jonathan

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Research interest in barefoot running has expanded considerably in recent years, based around the notion that running without shoes is associated with a reduced incidence of chronic injuries. The aim of the current investigation was to examine the differences in the forces produced by different skeletal muscles during barefoot and shod running. Fifteen male participants ran at 4.0 m·s-1 (± 5%. Kinematics were measured using an eight camera motion analysis system alongside ground reaction force parameters. Differences in sagittal plane kinematics and muscle forces between footwear conditions were examined using repeated measures or Freidman’s ANOVA. The kinematic analysis showed that the shod condition was associated with significantly more hip flexion, whilst barefoot running was linked with significantly more flexion at the knee and plantarflexion at the ankle. The examination of muscle kinetics indicated that peak forces from Rectus femoris, Vastus medialis, Vastus lateralis, Tibialis anterior were significantly larger in the shod condition whereas Gastrocnemius forces were significantly larger during barefoot running. These observations provide further insight into the mechanical alterations that runners make when running without shoes. Such findings may also deliver important information to runners regarding their susceptibility to chronic injuries in different footwear conditions.

  12. Linear Multivariable Regression Models for Prediction of Eddy Dissipation Rate from Available Meteorological Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    MCKissick, Burnell T. (Technical Monitor); Plassman, Gerald E.; Mall, Gerald H.; Quagliano, John R.

    2005-01-01

    Linear multivariable regression models for predicting day and night Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) from available meteorological data sources are defined and validated. Model definition is based on a combination of 1997-2000 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) data sources, EDR from Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) deployment data, and regression variables primarily from corresponding Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) data. Model validation is accomplished through EDR predictions on a similar combination of 1994-1995 Memphis (MEM) AVOSS and ASOS data. Model forms include an intercept plus a single term of fixed optimal power for each of these regression variables; 30-minute forward averaged mean and variance of near-surface wind speed and temperature, variance of wind direction, and a discrete cloud cover metric. Distinct day and night models, regressing on EDR and the natural log of EDR respectively, yield best performance and avoid model discontinuity over day/night data boundaries.

  13. Ground-based remote sensing profiling and numerical weather prediction model to manage nuclear power plants meteorological surveillance in Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Calpini

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The meteorological surveillance of the four nuclear power plants in Switzerland is of first importance in a densely populated area such as the Swiss Plateau. The project "Centrales Nucléaires et Météorologie" CN-MET aimed at providing a new security tool based on one hand on the development of a high resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP model. The latter is providing essential nowcasting information in case of a radioactive release from a nuclear power plant in Switzerland. On the other hand, the model input over the Swiss Plateau is generated by a dedicated network of surface and upper air observations including remote sensing instruments (wind profilers and temperature/humidity passive microwave radiometers. This network is built upon three main sites ideally located for measuring the inflow/outflow and central conditions of the main wind field in the planetary boundary layer over the Swiss Plateau, as well as a number of surface automatic weather stations (AWS. The network data are assimilated in real-time into the fine grid NWP model using a rapid update cycle of eight runs per day (one forecast every three hours. This high resolution NWP model has replaced the former security tool based on in situ observations (in particular one meteorological mast at each of the power plants and a local dispersion model. It is used to forecast the dynamics of the atmosphere in the planetary boundary layer (typically the first 4 km above ground layer and over a time scale of 24 h. This tool provides at any time (e.g. starting at the initial time of a nuclear power plant release the best picture of the 24-h evolution of the air mass over the Swiss Plateau and furthermore generates the input data (in the form of simulated values substituting in situ observations required for the local dispersion model used at each of the nuclear power plants locations. This paper is presenting the concept and two validation studies as well as the results of an

  14. Statistical modeling of phenological phases in Poland based on coupling satellite derived products and gridded meteorological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czernecki, Bartosz; Jabłońska, Katarzyna; Nowosad, Jakub

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the study was to create and evaluate different statistical models for reconstructing and predicting selected phenological phases. This issue is of particular importance in Poland where national-wide phenological monitoring was abandoned in the middle of 1990s and the reactivated network was established in 2006. Authors decided to evaluate possibilities of using a wide-range of statistical modeling techniques to create synthetic archive dataset. Additionally, a robust tool for predicting the most distinguishable phenophases using only free of charge data as predictors was created. Study period covers the years 2007-2014 and contains only quality-controlled dataset of 10 species and 14 phenophases. Phenological data used in this study originates from the manual observations network run by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB). Three kind of data sources were used as predictors: (i) satellite derived products, (ii) preprocessed gridded meteorological data, and (iii) spatial properties (longitude, latitude, altitude) of the monitoring site. Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) level-3 vegetation products were used for detecting onset dates of particular phenophases. Following indices were used: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Leaf Area Index (LAI), and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fPAR). Additionally, Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) products were chosen to detect occurrence of snow cover. Due to highly noisy data, authors decided to take into account pixel reliability information. Besides satellite derived products (NDVI, EVI, FPAR, LAI, Snow cover), a wide group of observational data and agrometeorological indices derived from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D) were used as a potential predictors: cumulative growing degree days (GDD), cumulative growing precipitation days (GPD

  15. Pembangunan Aplikasi Pengolahan Data Unsur Cuaca Pada Stasiun Meteorologi Kota Tegal Berbasis Model Waterfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Khambali

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Untuk mendapatkan suatu pengolahan data yang cepat dan akurat serta dikelola dengan baik tentunya harus mempunyai sebuah sistem pengelolaan yang baik. Aplikasi pengolahan data unsur cuaca disusulkan pada penelitian ini. Dengan menggunakan model waterfall menjadikan tahapan dalam pengembangan sistem yang dibuat menjadi terstruktur dengan baik tahapannya. Dengan dibangunnya aplikasi pengolahan data unsur cuaca, maka kendala yang dihadapi oleh stasiun meteorologi Tegal khususnya dibagian pengamatan yaitu dalam penghitungan unsur cuaca dapat ditanggulangi sehingga dapat mempermudah dalam memperoleh laporan tentang data unsur cuaca.

  16. Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kock, A.

    1996-05-01

    The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies.

  17. Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kock, A.

    1996-05-01

    The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies

  18. Motivational Meteorology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benjamin, Lee

    1993-01-01

    Describes an introductory meteorology course for nonacademic high school students. The course is made hands-on by the use of an educational software program offered by Accu-Weather. The program contains a meteorology database and instructional modules. (PR)

  19. Short Run and Long Run Reasons That Affect The Nauri Model in Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Baydur, Cem Mehmet; Süslü, Bora

    2015-01-01

    In this article, the study is done with the view of Nauri model, Keynes and Classical doctrine. According to the Classical doctrine, while the ratio of technology and mark-up depends on data, the value balance of unemployment level is determined by the share that the employees get from the whole salary. Aggressive salary policy increases the natural unemployment level. According to Nauri, in the situations where the expectations of inflation is right, the natural unemployment level is determi...

  20. Evaluating the effects of model structure and meteorological input data on runoff modelling in an alpine headwater basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schattan, Paul; Bellinger, Johannes; Förster, Kristian; Schöber, Johannes; Huttenlau, Matthias; Kirnbauer, Robert; Achleitner, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Modelling water resources in snow-dominated mountainous catchments is challenging due to both, short concentration times and a highly variable contribution of snow melt in space and time from complex terrain. A number of model setups exist ranging from physically based models to conceptional models which do not attempt to represent the natural processes in a physically meaningful way. Within the flood forecasting system for the Tyrolean Inn River two serially linked hydrological models with differing process representation are used. Non- glacierized catchments are modelled by a semi-distributed, water balance model (HQsim) based on the HRU-approach. A fully-distributed energy and mass balance model (SES), purpose-built for snow- and icemelt, is used for highly glacierized headwater catchments. Previous work revealed uncertainties and limitations within the models' structures regarding (i) the representation of snow processes in HQsim, (ii) the runoff routing of SES, and (iii) the spatial resolution of the meteorological input data in both models. To overcome these limitations, a "strengths driven" model coupling is applied. Instead of linking the models serially, a vertical one-way coupling of models has been implemented. The fully-distributed snow modelling of SES is combined with the semi-distributed HQsim structure, allowing to benefit from soil and runoff routing schemes in HQsim. A monte-carlo based modelling experiment was set up to evaluate the resulting differences in the runoff prediction due to the improved model coupling and a refined spatial resolution of the meteorological forcing. The experiment design follows a gradient of spatial discretisation of hydrological processes and meteorological forcing data with a total of six different model setups for the alpine headwater basin of the Fagge River in the Tyrolean Alps. In general, all setups show a good performance for this particular basin. It is therefore planned to include other basins with differing

  1. Assessment of a surface-layer parameterization scheme in an atmospheric model for varying meteorological conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. Anurose

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The performance of a surface-layer parameterization scheme in a high-resolution regional model (HRM is carried out by comparing the model-simulated sensible heat flux (H with the concurrent in situ measurements recorded at Thiruvananthapuram (8.5° N, 76.9° E, a coastal station in India. With a view to examining the role of atmospheric stability in conjunction with the roughness lengths in the determination of heat exchange coefficient (CH and H for varying meteorological conditions, the model simulations are repeated by assigning different values to the ratio of momentum and thermal roughness lengths (i.e. z0m/z0h in three distinct configurations of the surface-layer scheme designed for the present study. These three configurations resulted in differential behaviour for the varying meteorological conditions, which is attributed to the sensitivity of CH to the bulk Richardson number (RiB under extremely unstable, near-neutral and stable stratification of the atmosphere.

  2. Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreher, Joseph; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian; Van Speybroeck, Kurt

    2009-01-01

    The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) is responsible for providing meteorological support to state and county emergency management agencies across East Central Florida in the event of incidents involving the significant release of harmful chemicals, radiation, and smoke from fires and/or toxic plumes into the atmosphere. NWS MLB uses the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to provide trajectory, concentration, and deposition guidance during such events. Accurate and timely guidance is critical for decision makers charged with protecting the health and well-being of populations at risk. Information that can describe the geographic extent of areas possibly affected by a hazardous release, as well as to indicate locations of primary concern, offer better opportunity for prompt and decisive action. In addition, forecasters at the NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have expressed interest in using the HYSPLIT model to assist with Weather Flight Rules during Space Shuttle landing operations. In particular, SMG would provide low and mid-level HYSPLIT trajectory forecasts for cumulus clouds associated with smoke plumes, and high-level trajectory forecasts for thunderstorm anvils. Another potential benefit for both NWS MLB and SMG is using the HYSPLIT model concentration and deposition guidance in fog situations.

  3. Numerical experiments with assimilation of the mean and unresolved meteorological conditions into large-eddy simulation model

    OpenAIRE

    Esau, Igor

    2010-01-01

    Micrometeorology, city comfort, land use management and air quality monitoring increasingly become important environmental issues. To serve the needs, meteorology needs to achieve a serious advance in representation and forecast on micro-scales (meters to 100 km) called meteorological terra incognita. There is a suitable numerical tool, namely, the large-eddy simulation modelling (LES) to support the development. However, at present, the LES is of limited utility for applications. The study a...

  4. Instantaneous Linkages between Clouds and Large-Scale Meteorology over the Southern Ocean in Observations and a Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wall, Casey J. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Hartmann, Dennis L. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Ma, Po-Lun [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

    2017-12-01

    Instantaneous, coincident, footprint-level satellite observations of cloud properties and radiation taken during austral summer over the Southern Ocean are used to study relationships between clouds and large-scale meteorology. Cloud properties are very sensitive to the strength of vertical motion in the middle-troposphere, and low-cloud properties are sensitive to estimated inversion strength, low-level temperature advection, and sea surface temperature. These relationships are quantified. An index for the meteorological anomalies associated with midlatitude cyclones is presented, and it is used to reveal the sensitivity of clouds to the meteorology within the warm- and cold-sector of cyclones. The observed relationships between clouds and meteorology are compared to those in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) using satellite simulators. Low-clouds simulated by CAM5 are too few, too bright, and contain too much ice, and low-clouds located in the cold-sector of cyclones are too sensitive to variations in the meteorology. The latter two biases are dramatically reduced when CAM5 is coupled with an updated boundary layer parameterization know as Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB). More generally, this study demonstrates that examining the instantaneous timescale is a powerful approach to understanding the physical processes that control clouds and how they are represented in climate models. Such an evaluation goes beyond the cloud climatology and exposes model bias under various meteorological conditions.

  5. Modeling for pollution dispersion and air quality. 3.: meteorological data and emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertagna, Silvia

    2005-01-01

    To better and correctly choose the suitable modeling system to use, it is necessary previously to define with objective criteria the characteristic of the problem to be studied and to gather together a great amount of input data and information, needed by the model, regarding, namely, the meteorological diffusive conditions of the atmosphere, the characteristic of the emission source (type, number, site etc.) and the characteristic of the area of interest (as land use and orography). In this work, the main different typologies of input data, which occur to simulate the air pollutant dispersion, are described, together with the instruments to obtain them: they include the consultation and the elaboration of information coming from databases and inventories appositely built and often also the use of other models or dedicated SW programs [it

  6. Fine resolution atmospheric sulfate model driven by operational meteorological data: Comparison with observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benkovitz, C.M.; Schwartz, S.E.; Berkowitz, C.M.; Easter, R.C.

    1993-09-01

    The hypothesis that anthropogenic sulfur aerosol influences clear-sky and cloud albedo and can thus influence climate has been advanced by several investigators; current global-average climate forcing is estimated to be of comparable magnitude, but opposite sign, to longwave forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The high space and time variability of sulfate concentrations and column aerosol burdens have been established by observational data; however, geographic and time coverage provided by data from surface monitoring networks is very limited. Consistent regional and global estimates of sulfate aerosol loading, and the contributions to this loading from different sources can be obtained only by modeling studies. Here we describe a sub-hemispheric to global-scale Eulerian transport and transformation model for atmospheric sulfate and its precursors, driven by operational meteorological data, and report results of calculations for October, 1986 for the North Atlantic and adjacent continental regions. The model, which is based on the Global Chemistry Model uses meteorological data from the 6-hour forecast model of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast to calculate transport and transformation of sulfur emissions. Time- and location-dependent dry deposition velocities were estimated using the methodology of Wesely and colleagues. Chemical reactions includes gaseous oxidation of SO 2 and DMS by OH, and aqueous oxidation of SO 2 by H 2 O 2 and O 3 . Anthropogenic emissions were from the NAPAP and EMEP 1985 inventories and biogenic emissions based on Bates et al. Calculated sulfate concentrations and column burdens exhibit high variability on spatial scale of hundreds of km and temporal scale of days. Calculated daily average sulfate concentrations closely reproduce observed concentrations at locations widespread over the model domain

  7. Meteorological and sulphur dioxide dispersion modelling for an industrial complex near Mexico city metropolitan area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mora, V.R.; Sosa, G.; Molina, M.M.; Palmerin-ruiz, M.E.; Melgarejo-flores, L.E.

    2009-01-01

    Major sulphur dioxide emissions in Mexico are due largely to fuel of oil refining and coal combustion. In Tula-Vito-Apasco industrial corridor (TVA) are located two important sources of SO/sub 2/: the 'Miguel Hidalgo' refinery and the 'Francisco Perez Rios' power plant. Due to from March 25 to April 22 of 2006 a major field campaign took place as part of a collaborative research program called MILAGRO. Data collected around the Industrial Complex were used to: a) evaluate the air quality to local and regional scale; b) study the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (BL); and c) validate meteorological and dispersion models. In this study we presented the behaviour of daytime BL, and the results of meteorological and dispersion modelling for selected episodes of high sulfur dioxide (SO/sub 2/). The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) and the Hybrid and Particle Concentration Transport Model (HYPACT) were used to evaluate the impact of SO/sub 2/ emissions to regional scale. For modelling, we selected the days where higher mean daily levels of SO/sub 2 /surface concentrations were observed, these corresponded to March 31 and April 6. The results indicate that: The daytime BL in TVA, exhibited a normal behavior, a stable layer or thermal inversion close to surface was observed at 0800 LST (up to 80% of the cases), then the mixing height (MH) growths, with a growth rate of 313 m h-1 (between 0800 to 1200 LST). The most rapid MH growth happened between 1200 to 1500 LST;. The maximum MH was observed at 1500 LST (90% of the cases); the mean maximum MH was close to 2794 m AGL; Potential temperature and humidity profiles showed a normal behavior; High persistence in wind direction (> 0.6) close to surface up to 500 m AGL, was observed at 1500, and 1800 LST, at the same time, a low level jet, penetrating from the NE, with wind speed between 6 to 8 m s/sup -1/ was observed. Meteorological modelling was used to determine the circulation patterns in the region

  8. Short-run and Current Analysis Model in Statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Anghelache

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Using the short-run statistic indicators is a compulsory requirement implied in the current analysis. Therefore, there is a system of EUROSTAT indicators on short run which has been set up in this respect, being recommended for utilization by the member-countries. On the basis of these indicators, there are regular, usually monthly, analysis being achieved in respect of: the production dynamic determination; the evaluation of the short-run investment volume; the development of the turnover; the wage evolution: the employment; the price indexes and the consumer price index (inflation; the volume of exports and imports and the extent to which the imports are covered by the exports and the sold of trade balance. The EUROSTAT system of indicators of conjuncture is conceived as an open system, so that it can be, at any moment extended or restricted, allowing indicators to be amended or even removed, depending on the domestic users requirements as well as on the specific requirements of the harmonization and integration. For the short-run analysis, there is also the World Bank system of indicators of conjuncture, which is utilized, relying on the data sources offered by the World Bank, The World Institute for Resources or other international organizations statistics. The system comprises indicators of the social and economic development and focuses on the indicators for the following three fields: human resources, environment and economic performances. At the end of the paper, there is a case study on the situation of Romania, for which we used all these indicators.

  9. Short-run and Current Analysis Model in Statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Mitrut

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Using the short-run statistic indicators is a compulsory requirement implied in the current analysis. Therefore, there is a system of EUROSTAT indicators on short run which has been set up in this respect, being recommended for utilization by the member-countries. On the basis of these indicators, there are regular, usually monthly, analysis being achieved in respect of: the production dynamic determination; the evaluation of the short-run investment volume; the development of the turnover; the wage evolution: the employment; the price indexes and the consumer price index (inflation; the volume of exports and imports and the extent to which the imports are covered by the exports and the sold of trade balance. The EUROSTAT system of indicators of conjuncture is conceived as an open system, so that it can be, at any moment extended or restricted, allowing indicators to be amended or even removed, depending on the domestic users requirements as well as on the specific requirements of the harmonization and integration. For the short-run analysis, there is also the World Bank system of indicators of conjuncture, which is utilized, relying on the data sources offered by the World Bank, The World Institute for Resources or other international organizations statistics. The system comprises indicators of the social and economic development and focuses on the indicators for the following three fields: human resources, environment and economic performances. At the end of the paper, there is a case study on the situation of Romania, for which we used all these indicators.

  10. 10 km running performance predicted by a multiple linear regression model with allometrically adjusted variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abad, Cesar C C; Barros, Ronaldo V; Bertuzzi, Romulo; Gagliardi, João F L; Lima-Silva, Adriano E; Lambert, Mike I; Pires, Flavio O

    2016-06-01

    The aim of this study was to verify the power of VO 2max , peak treadmill running velocity (PTV), and running economy (RE), unadjusted or allometrically adjusted, in predicting 10 km running performance. Eighteen male endurance runners performed: 1) an incremental test to exhaustion to determine VO 2max and PTV; 2) a constant submaximal run at 12 km·h -1 on an outdoor track for RE determination; and 3) a 10 km running race. Unadjusted (VO 2max , PTV and RE) and adjusted variables (VO 2max 0.72 , PTV 0.72 and RE 0.60 ) were investigated through independent multiple regression models to predict 10 km running race time. There were no significant correlations between 10 km running time and either the adjusted or unadjusted VO 2max . Significant correlations (p 0.84 and power > 0.88. The allometrically adjusted predictive model was composed of PTV 0.72 and RE 0.60 and explained 83% of the variance in 10 km running time with a standard error of the estimate (SEE) of 1.5 min. The unadjusted model composed of a single PVT accounted for 72% of the variance in 10 km running time (SEE of 1.9 min). Both regression models provided powerful estimates of 10 km running time; however, the unadjusted PTV may provide an uncomplicated estimation.

  11. Modeling Occurrence of Urban Mosquitos Based on Land Use Types and Meteorological Factors in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong-Su Kwon

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Mosquitoes are a public health concern because they are vectors of pathogen, which cause human-related diseases. It is well known that the occurrence of mosquitoes is highly influenced by meteorological conditions (e.g., temperature and precipitation and land use, but there are insufficient studies quantifying their impacts. Therefore, three analytical methods were applied to determine the relationships between urban mosquito occurrence, land use type, and meteorological factors: cluster analysis based on land use types; principal component analysis (PCA based on mosquito occurrence; and three prediction models, support vector machine (SVM, classification and regression tree (CART, and random forest (RF. We used mosquito data collected at 12 sites from 2011 to 2012. Mosquito abundance was highest from August to September in both years. The monitoring sites were differentiated into three clusters based on differences in land use type such as culture and sport areas, inland water, artificial grasslands, and traffic areas. These clusters were well reflected in PCA ordinations, indicating that mosquito occurrence was highly influenced by land use types. Lastly, the RF represented the highest predictive power for mosquito occurrence and temperature-related factors were the most influential. Our study will contribute to effective control and management of mosquito occurrences.

  12. Meteorology, Macrophysics, Microphysics, Microwaves, and Mesoscale Modeling of Mediterranean Mountain Storms: The M8 Laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starr, David O. (Technical Monitor); Smith, Eric A.

    2002-01-01

    Comprehensive understanding of the microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms can be accomplished by a combination of in situ meteorological data analysis and radar-passive microwave data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales, from synoptic scale down through the mesoscale, the cloud macrophysical scale, and ultimately the cloud microphysical scale. The microphysical properties of and their controls on severe storms are intrinsically related to meteorological processes under which storms have evolved, processes which eventually select and control the dominant microphysical properties themselves. This involves intense convective development, stratiform decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes, as well as the associated vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that affect details of the size distributions and fall rates of the various types of hydrometeors found within the storm environment. Insofar as hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted in this study by three mountain storms producing damaging floods in northern Italy between 1992 and 2000, developing a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution and the heterogeneous nature of precipitation fields within a storm domain. This involves convective development, stratiform transition and decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes. This also involves vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that determine details of the liquid/ice water contents, size disi:ributions, and fall rates of the various modes of hydrometeors found within hazardous storm environments.

  13. Description of the University of Auckland Global Mars Mesoscale Meteorological Model (GM4)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, D. R.; Austin, G. L.

    2005-08-01

    The University of Auckland Global Mars Mesoscale Meteorological Model (GM4) is a numerical weather prediction model of the Martian atmosphere that has been developed through the conversion of the Penn State University / National Center for Atmospheric Research fifth generation mesoscale model (MM5). The global aspect of this model is self consistent, overlapping, and forms a continuous domain around the entire planet, removing the need to provide boundary conditions other than at initialisation, yielding independence from the constraint of a Mars general circulation model. The brief overview of the model will be given, outlining the key physical processes and setup of the model. Comparison between data collected from Mars Pathfinder during its 1997 mission and simulated conditions using GM4 have been performed. Diurnal temperature variation as predicted by the model shows very good correspondence with the surface truth data, to within 5 K for the majority of the diurnal cycle. Mars Viking Data is also compared with the model, with good agreement. As a further means of validation for the model, various seasonal comparisons of surface and vertical atmospheric structure are conducted with the European Space Agency AOPP/LMD Mars Climate Database. Selected simulations over regions of interest will also be presented.

  14. A low-order coupled chemistry meteorology model for testing online and offline data assimilation schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haussaire, J.-M.; Bocquet, M.

    2015-08-01

    Bocquet and Sakov (2013) have introduced a low-order model based on the coupling of the chaotic Lorenz-95 model which simulates winds along a mid-latitude circle, with the transport of a tracer species advected by this zonal wind field. This model, named L95-T, can serve as a playground for testing data assimilation schemes with an online model. Here, the tracer part of the model is extended to a reduced photochemistry module. This coupled chemistry meteorology model (CCMM), the L95-GRS model, mimics continental and transcontinental transport and the photochemistry of ozone, volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides. Its numerical implementation is described. The model is shown to reproduce the major physical and chemical processes being considered. L95-T and L95-GRS are specifically designed and useful for testing advanced data assimilation schemes, such as the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS) which combines the best of ensemble and variational methods. These models provide useful insights prior to the implementation of data assimilation methods on larger models. We illustrate their use with data assimilation schemes on preliminary, yet instructive numerical experiments. In particular, online and offline data assimilation strategies can be conveniently tested and discussed with this low-order CCMM. The impact of observed chemical species concentrations on the wind field can be quantitatively estimated. The impacts of the wind chaotic dynamics and of the chemical species non-chaotic but highly nonlinear dynamics on the data assimilation strategies are illustrated.

  15. The first mathematical models of dynamic meteorology: The Berlin prize contest of 1746

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Egger, J.; Pelkowski, J. [Muenchen Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.

    2008-02-15

    The first models of dynamic meteorology were published in 1747 as a result of a prize contest of the Academy of Prussia. The topic of the contest concerned the determination of the winds 'if the Earth were surrounded everywhere by an ocean'. D'Alembert formulated a shallow water model for the first time in his prize-winning contribution and attempted to calculate tidal motions within the fluid layers. Daniel Bernoulli viewed the atmosphere as a boundary layer wherein the winds rotating with the earth at low elevations have to adjust their motion to a solar atmosphere at large heights. He is first in applying the principle of angular momentum conservation in continuum geophysics when calculating the zonal wind profile. An account of the historical background of the contest is given, as well as some later reactions to d'Alembert's solution. (orig.)

  16. Comparison of surface meteorological data representativeness for the Weldon Spring transport and dispersion modeling analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazaro, M.

    1989-06-01

    The US Department of Energy is conducting the Weldon Spring Site Remedial Action Project under the Surplus Facilities Management Program (SFMP). The major goals of the SFMP are to eliminate potential hazards to the public and the environment that associated with contamination at SFMP sites and to make surplus property available for other uses to the extent possible. This report presents the results of analysis of available meteorological data from stations near the Weldon Spring site. Data that are most representative of site conditions are needed to accurately model the transport and dispersion of air pollutants associated with remedial activities. Such modeling will assist the development of mitigative measures. 17 refs., 12 figs., 6 tabs

  17. THE APPLICATION OF AN EVOLUTIONARY ALGORITHM TO THE OPTIMIZATION OF A MESOSCALE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werth, D.; O' Steen, L.

    2008-02-11

    We show that a simple evolutionary algorithm can optimize a set of mesoscale atmospheric model parameters with respect to agreement between the mesoscale simulation and a limited set of synthetic observations. This is illustrated using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). A set of 23 RAMS parameters is optimized by minimizing a cost function based on the root mean square (rms) error between the RAMS simulation and synthetic data (observations derived from a separate RAMS simulation). We find that the optimization can be efficient with relatively modest computer resources, thus operational implementation is possible. The optimization efficiency, however, is found to depend strongly on the procedure used to perturb the 'child' parameters relative to their 'parents' within the evolutionary algorithm. In addition, the meteorological variables included in the rms error and their weighting are found to be an important factor with respect to finding the global optimum.

  18. Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Tai, A. P. K.; Fiore, A. M.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50

  19. Utilization of mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC as a meteorological forecast model in nuclear emergency response system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Haruyasu; Yamazawa, Hiromi

    1997-01-01

    It is advantageous for an emergency response system to have a forecast function to provide a time margin for countermeasures in case of a nuclear accident. We propose to apply an atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC (Prognostic HYdroStatic model Including turbulence Closure model) as a meteorological forecast model in the emergency system. The model uses GPV data which are the output of the numerical weather forecast model of Japan Meteorological Agency as the initial and boundary conditions. The roles of PHYSIC are the interface between GPV data and the emergency response system and the forecast of local atmospheric phenomena within the model domain. This paper presents a scheme to use PHYSIC to forecast local wind and its performance. Horizontal grid number of PHYSIC is fixed to 50 x 50, whereas the mesh and domain sizes are determined in consideration of topography causing local winds at an objective area. The model performance was examined for the introduction of GPV data through initial and boundary conditions and the predictability of local wind field and atmospheric stability. The model performance was on an acceptable level as the forecast model. It was also recognized that improvement of cloud calculation was necessary in simulating atmospheric stability. (author)

  20. Monitoring, modeling and mitigating impacts of wind farms on local meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baidya Roy, Somnath; Traiteur, Justin; Kelley, Neil

    2010-05-01

    Wind power is one of the fastest growing sources of energy. Most of the growth is in the industrial sector comprising of large utility-scale wind farms. Recent modeling studies have suggested that such wind farms can significantly affect local and regional weather and climate. In this work, we present observational evidence of the impact of wind farms on near-surface air temperatures. Data from perhaps the only meteorological field campaign in an operational wind farm shows that downwind temperatures are lower during the daytime and higher at night compared to the upwind environment. Corresponding radiosonde profiles at the nearby Edwards Air Force Base WMO meteorological station show that the diurnal environment is unstable while the nocturnal environment is stable during the field campaign. This behavior is consistent with the hypothesis proposed by Baidya Roy et al. (JGR 2004) that states that turbulence generated in the wake of rotors enhance vertical mixing leading to a warming/cooling under positive/negative potential temperature lapse rates. We conducted a set of 306 simulations with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to test if regional climate models can capture the thermal effects of wind farms. We represented wind turbines with a subgrid parameterization that assumes rotors to be sinks of momentum and sources of turbulence. The simulated wind farms consistently generated a localized warming/cooling under positive/negative lapse rates as hypothesized. We found that these impacts are inversely correlated with background atmospheric boundary layer turbulence. Thus, if the background turbulence is high due to natural processes, the effects of additional turbulence generated by wind turbine rotors are likely to be small. We propose the following strategies to minimize impacts of wind farms: • Engineering solution: design rotors that generate less turbulence in their wakes. Sensitivity simulations show that these turbines also increase the

  1. Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998-2007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loha, Eskindir; Lindtjørn, Bernt

    2010-06-16

    Malaria transmission is complex and is believed to be associated with local climate changes. However, simple attempts to extrapolate malaria incidence rates from averaged regional meteorological conditions have proven unsuccessful. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if variations in specific meteorological factors are able to consistently predict P. falciparum malaria incidence at different locations in south Ethiopia. Retrospective data from 42 locations were collected including P. falciparum malaria incidence for the period of 1998-2007 and meteorological variables such as monthly rainfall (all locations), temperature (17 locations), and relative humidity (three locations). Thirty-five data sets qualified for the analysis. Ljung-Box Q statistics was used for model diagnosis, and R squared or stationary R squared was taken as goodness of fit measure. Time series modelling was carried out using Transfer Function (TF) models and univariate auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) when there was no significant predictor meteorological variable. Of 35 models, five were discarded because of the significant value of Ljung-Box Q statistics. Past P. falciparum malaria incidence alone (17 locations) or when coupled with meteorological variables (four locations) was able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence within statistical significance. All seasonal AIRMA orders were from locations at altitudes above 1742 m. Monthly rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature was able to predict incidence at four, five and two locations, respectively. In contrast, relative humidity was not able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence. The R squared values for the models ranged from 16% to 97%, with the exception of one model which had a negative value. Models with seasonal ARIMA orders were found to perform better. However, the models for predicting P. falciparum malaria incidence varied from location to location, and among lagged effects, data

  2. Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998-2007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loha Eskindir

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria transmission is complex and is believed to be associated with local climate changes. However, simple attempts to extrapolate malaria incidence rates from averaged regional meteorological conditions have proven unsuccessful. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if variations in specific meteorological factors are able to consistently predict P. falciparum malaria incidence at different locations in south Ethiopia. Methods Retrospective data from 42 locations were collected including P. falciparum malaria incidence for the period of 1998-2007 and meteorological variables such as monthly rainfall (all locations, temperature (17 locations, and relative humidity (three locations. Thirty-five data sets qualified for the analysis. Ljung-Box Q statistics was used for model diagnosis, and R squared or stationary R squared was taken as goodness of fit measure. Time series modelling was carried out using Transfer Function (TF models and univariate auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA when there was no significant predictor meteorological variable. Results Of 35 models, five were discarded because of the significant value of Ljung-Box Q statistics. Past P. falciparum malaria incidence alone (17 locations or when coupled with meteorological variables (four locations was able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence within statistical significance. All seasonal AIRMA orders were from locations at altitudes above 1742 m. Monthly rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature was able to predict incidence at four, five and two locations, respectively. In contrast, relative humidity was not able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence. The R squared values for the models ranged from 16% to 97%, with the exception of one model which had a negative value. Models with seasonal ARIMA orders were found to perform better. However, the models for predicting P. falciparum malaria incidence varied from location

  3. Systems-level computational modeling demonstrates fuel selection switching in high capacity running and low capacity running rats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Nathan R.

    2018-01-01

    High capacity and low capacity running rats, HCR and LCR respectively, have been bred to represent two extremes of running endurance and have recently demonstrated disparities in fuel usage during transient aerobic exercise. HCR rats can maintain fatty acid (FA) utilization throughout the course of transient aerobic exercise whereas LCR rats rely predominantly on glucose utilization. We hypothesized that the difference between HCR and LCR fuel utilization could be explained by a difference in mitochondrial density. To test this hypothesis and to investigate mechanisms of fuel selection, we used a constraint-based kinetic analysis of whole-body metabolism to analyze transient exercise data from these rats. Our model analysis used a thermodynamically constrained kinetic framework that accounts for glycolysis, the TCA cycle, and mitochondrial FA transport and oxidation. The model can effectively match the observed relative rates of oxidation of glucose versus FA, as a function of ATP demand. In searching for the minimal differences required to explain metabolic function in HCR versus LCR rats, it was determined that the whole-body metabolic phenotype of LCR, compared to the HCR, could be explained by a ~50% reduction in total mitochondrial activity with an additional 5-fold reduction in mitochondrial FA transport activity. Finally, we postulate that over sustained periods of exercise that LCR can partly overcome the initial deficit in FA catabolic activity by upregulating FA transport and/or oxidation processes. PMID:29474500

  4. [Prediction model of meteorological grade of wheat stripe rust in winter-reproductive area, Sichuan Basin, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiang; Wang, Ming Tian; Zhang, Guo Zhi

    2017-12-01

    The winter reproductive areas of Puccinia striiformis var. striiformis in Sichuan Basin are often the places mostly affected by wheat stripe rust. With data on the meteorological condition and stripe rust situation at typical stations in the winter reproductive area in Sichuan Basin from 1999 to 2016, this paper classified the meteorological conditions inducing wheat stripe rust into 5 grades, based on the incidence area ratio of the disease. The meteorological factors which were biologically related to wheat stripe rust were determined through multiple analytical methods, and a meteorological grade model for forecasting wheat stripe rust was created. The result showed that wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Basin was significantly correlated with many meteorological factors, such as the ave-rage (maximum and minimum) temperature, precipitation and its anomaly percentage, relative humidity and its anomaly percentage, average wind speed and sunshine duration. Among these, the average temperature and the anomaly percentage of relative humidity were the determining factors. According to a historical retrospective test, the accuracy of the forecast based on the model was 64% for samples in the county-level test, and 89% for samples in the municipal-level test. In a meteorological grade forecast of wheat stripe rust in the winter reproductive areas in Sichuan Basin in 2017, the prediction was accurate for 62.8% of the samples, with 27.9% error by one grade and only 9.3% error by two or more grades. As a result, the model could deliver satisfactory forecast results, and predicate future wheat stripe rust from a meteorological point of view.

  5. Air quality modeling in the Valley of Mexico: meteorology, emissions and forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Reynoso, A.; Jazcilevich, A. D.; Diaz-Nigenda, E.; Vazquez-Morales, W.; Torres-Jardon, R.; Ruiz-Suarez, G.; Tatarko, J.; Bornstein, R.

    2007-12-01

    The Valley of Mexico presents important challenges for air quality modeling: complex terrain, a great variety of anthropogenic and natural emissions sources, and high altitude and low latitude increasing the amount of radiation flux. The modeling group at the CCA-UNAM is using and merging state of the art models to study the different aspects that influence the air quality phenomenon in the Valley of Mexico. The air quality model MCCM that uses MM5 as its meteorological input has been a valuable tool to study important features of the complex and intricate atmospheric flows on the valley, such as local confluences and vertical fumigation. Air quality modeling has allowed studying the interaction between the atmospheres of the valleys surrounding the Valley of Mexico, prompting the location of measurement stations during the MILAGRO campaign. These measurements confirmed the modeling results and expanded our knowledge of the transport of pollutants between the Valleys of Cuernavaca, Puebla and Mexico. The urban landscape of Mexico City complicates meteorological modeling. Urban-MM5, a model that explicitly takes into account the influence of buildings, houses, streets, parks and anthropogenic heat, is being implemented. Preliminary results of urban-MM5 on a small area of the city have been obtained. The current emissions inventory uses traffic database that includes hourly vehicular activity in more than 11,000 street segments, includes 23 area emissions categories, more than 1,000 industrial sources and biogenic emissions. To improve mobile sources emissions a system consisting of a traffic model and a car simulator is underway. This system will allow for high time and space resolution and takes into account motor stress due to different driving regimes. An important source of emissions in the Valley of Mexico is erosion dust. The erosion model WEPS has been integrated with MM5 and preliminary results showing dust episodes over Mexico City have been obtained. A

  6. METRODOS: Meteorological preprocessor chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Astrup, P.; Mikkelsen, T.; Deme, S.

    2001-01-01

    The METRODOS meteorological preprocessor chain combines measured tower data and coarse grid numerical weather prediction (NWP) data with local scale flow models and similarity scaling to give high resolution approximations of the meteorological situation. Based on available wind velocity and dire...

  7. Fast Running Urban Dispersion Model for Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) Releases: Model Description and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gowardhan, Akshay [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Neuscamman, Stephanie [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Donetti, John [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Walker, Hoyt [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Belles, Rich [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Eme, Bill [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Homann, Steven [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Simpson, Matthew [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Nasstrom, John [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC)

    2017-05-24

    Aeolus is an efficient three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics code based on finite volume method developed for predicting transport and dispersion of contaminants in a complex urban area. It solves the time dependent incompressible Navier-Stokes equation on a regular Cartesian staggered grid using a fractional step method. It also solves a scalar transport equation for temperature and using the Boussinesq approximation. The model also includes a Lagrangian dispersion model for predicting the transport and dispersion of atmospheric contaminants. The model can be run in an efficient Reynolds Average Navier-Stokes (RANS) mode with a run time of several minutes, or a more detailed Large Eddy Simulation (LES) mode with run time of hours for a typical simulation. This report describes the model components, including details on the physics models used in the code, as well as several model validation efforts. Aeolus wind and dispersion predictions are compared to field data from the Joint Urban Field Trials 2003 conducted in Oklahoma City (Allwine et al 2004) including both continuous and instantaneous releases. Newly implemented Aeolus capabilities include a decay chain model and an explosive Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) source term; these capabilities are described. Aeolus predictions using the buoyant explosive RDD source are validated against two experimental data sets: the Green Field explosive cloud rise experiments conducted in Israel (Sharon et al 2012) and the Full-Scale RDD Field Trials conducted in Canada (Green et al 2016).

  8. Integrated modeling of the dynamic meteorological and sea surface conditions during the passage of Typhoon Morakot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Han Soo; Yamashita, Takao; Hsu, John R.-C.; Ding, Fei

    2013-01-01

    In August 2009, Typhoon Morakot caused massive flooding and devastating mudslides in the southern Taiwan triggered by extremely heavy rainfall (2777 mm in 4 days) which occurred during its passage. It was one of the deadliest typhoons that have ever attacked Taiwan in recent years. In this study, numerical simulations are performed for the storm surge and ocean surface waves, together with dynamic meteorological fields such as wind, pressure and precipitation induced by Typhoon Morakot, using an atmosphere-waves-ocean integrated modelling system. The wave-induced dissipation stress from breaking waves, whitecapping and depth-induced wave breaking, is parameterized and included in the wave-current interaction process, in addition to its influence on the storm surge level in shallow water along the coast of Taiwan. The simulated wind and pressure field captures the characteristics of the observed meteorological field. The spatial distribution of the accumulated rainfall within 4 days, from 00:00 UTC 6 August to 00:00 UTC 10 August 2009, shows similar patterns as the observed values. The 4-day accumulated rainfall of 2777 mm at the A-Li Shan mountain weather station for the same period depicted a high correlation with the observed value of 2780 mm/4 days. The effects of wave-induced dissipation stress in the wave-current interaction resulted in increased surge heights on the relatively shallow western coast of Taiwan, where the bottom slope of the bathymetry ranges from mild to moderate. The results also show that wave-breaking has to be considered for accurate storm surge prediction along the east coast of Taiwan over the narrow bank of surf zone with a high horizontal resolution of the model domain.

  9. The trajectory model tranco as applied to the Chernobyl accident using E.C.M.W.F. meteorological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarimpas, N.

    1989-01-01

    This report presents the TRANCO (trajectory analysis) code and discusses its application to model atmospheric transport during and after the Chernobyl accident. The archived-processed meteorological information from the ECMWF, which is used for the purposes of this study, is also described. Finally, results are discussed and compared with those produced by similar models

  10. Semantic 3d City Model to Raster Generalisation for Water Run-Off Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verbree, E.; de Vries, M.; Gorte, B.; Oude Elberink, S.; Karimlou, G.

    2013-09-01

    Water run-off modelling applied within urban areas requires an appropriate detailed surface model represented by a raster height grid. Accurate simulations at this scale level have to take into account small but important water barriers and flow channels given by the large-scale map definitions of buildings, street infrastructure, and other terrain objects. Thus, these 3D features have to be rasterised such that each cell represents the height of the object class as good as possible given the cell size limitations. Small grid cells will result in realistic run-off modelling but with unacceptable computation times; larger grid cells with averaged height values will result in less realistic run-off modelling but fast computation times. This paper introduces a height grid generalisation approach in which the surface characteristics that most influence the water run-off flow are preserved. The first step is to create a detailed surface model (1:1.000), combining high-density laser data with a detailed topographic base map. The topographic map objects are triangulated to a set of TIN-objects by taking into account the semantics of the different map object classes. These TIN objects are then rasterised to two grids with a 0.5m cell-spacing: one grid for the object class labels and the other for the TIN-interpolated height values. The next step is to generalise both raster grids to a lower resolution using a procedure that considers the class label of each cell and that of its neighbours. The results of this approach are tested and validated by water run-off model runs for different cellspaced height grids at a pilot area in Amersfoort (the Netherlands). Two national datasets were used in this study: the large scale Topographic Base map (BGT, map scale 1:1.000), and the National height model of the Netherlands AHN2 (10 points per square meter on average). Comparison between the original AHN2 height grid and the semantically enriched and then generalised height grids shows

  11. Modeling the Frequency of Cyclists’ Red-Light Running Behavior Using Bayesian PG Model and PLN Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yao Wu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Red-light running behaviors of bicycles at signalized intersection lead to a large number of traffic conflicts and high collision potentials. The primary objective of this study is to model the cyclists’ red-light running frequency within the framework of Bayesian statistics. Data was collected at twenty-five approaches at seventeen signalized intersections. The Poisson-gamma (PG and Poisson-lognormal (PLN model were developed and compared. The models were validated using Bayesian p values based on posterior predictive checking indicators. It was found that the two models have a good fit of the observed cyclists’ red-light running frequency. Furthermore, the PLN model outperformed the PG model. The model estimated results showed that the amount of cyclists’ red-light running is significantly influenced by bicycle flow, conflict traffic flow, pedestrian signal type, vehicle speed, and e-bike rate. The validation result demonstrated the reliability of the PLN model. The research results can help transportation professionals to predict the expected amount of the cyclists’ red-light running and develop effective guidelines or policies to reduce red-light running frequency of bicycles at signalized intersections.

  12. THE VALUE OF NUDGING IN THE METEOROLOGY MODEL FOR RETROSPECTIVE CMAQ SIMULATIONS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Using a nudging-based data assimilation approach throughout a meteorology simulation (i.e., as a "dynamic analysis") is considered valuable because it can provide a better overall representation of the meteorology than a pure forecast. Dynamic analysis is often used in...

  13. Application of a mesoscale forecasting model (NMM) coupled to the CALMET to develop forecast meteorology to use with the CALPUFF air dispersion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radonjic, Z.; Telenta, B.; Kirklady, J.; Chambers, D.; Kleb, H.

    2006-01-01

    An air quality assessment was undertaken as part of the Environmental Assessment for the Port Hope Area Initiative. The assessment predicted potential effects associated with the remediation efforts for historic low-level radioactive wastes and construction of Long-Term Waste Management Facilities (LTWMFs) for both the Port Hope and Port Granby Projects. A necessary element of air dispersion modelling is the development of suitable meteorological data. For the Port Hope and Port Granby Projects, a meteorological station was installed in close proximity to the location of the recommended LTWMF in Port Hope. The recommended location for the Port Granby LTWMF is approximately 10 km west of the Port Hope LTWMF. Concerns were raised regarding the applicability of data collected for the Port Hope meteorological station to the Port Granby Site. To address this concern, a new method for processing meteorological data, which coupled mesoscale meteorological forecasting data the U.S. EPA CALMET meteorological data processor, was applied. This methodology is possible because a new and advanced mesoscale forecasting modelling system enables extensive numerical calculations on personal computers. As a result of this advancement, mesoscale forecasting systems can now be coupled with the CALMET meteorological data processor and the CALPUFF air dispersion modelling system to facilitate wind field estimations and air dispersion analysis. (author)

  14. Performance assessment of retrospective meteorological inputs for use in air quality modeling during TexAQS 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngan, Fong; Byun, Daewon; Kim, Hyuncheol; Lee, Daegyun; Rappenglück, Bernhard; Pour-Biazar, Arastoo

    2012-07-01

    To achieve more accurate meteorological inputs than was used in the daily forecast for studying the TexAQS 2006 air quality, retrospective simulations were conducted using objective analysis and 3D/surface analysis nudging with surface and upper observations. Model ozone using the assimilated meteorological fields with improved wind fields shows better agreement with the observation compared to the forecasting results. In the post-frontal conditions, important factors for ozone modeling in terms of wind patterns are the weak easterlies in the morning for bringing in industrial emissions to the city and the subsequent clockwise turning of the wind direction induced by the Coriolis force superimposing the sea breeze, which keeps pollutants in the urban area. Objective analysis and nudging employed in the retrospective simulation minimize the wind bias but are not able to compensate for the general flow pattern biases inherited from large scale inputs. By using an alternative analyses data for initializing the meteorological simulation, the model can re-produce the flow pattern and generate the ozone peak location closer to the reality. The inaccurate simulation of precipitation and cloudiness cause over-prediction of ozone occasionally. Since there are limitations in the meteorological model to simulate precipitation and cloudiness in the fine scale domain (less than 4-km grid), the satellite-based cloud is an alternative way to provide necessary inputs for the retrospective study of air quality.

  15. Modeling and roles of meteorological factors in outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paritosh K Biswas

    Full Text Available The highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H5N1 (HPAI H5N1 is a deadly zoonotic pathogen. Its persistence in poultry in several countries is a potential threat: a mutant or genetically reassorted progenitor might cause a human pandemic. Its world-wide eradication from poultry is important to protect public health. The global trend of outbreaks of influenza attributable to HPAI H5N1 shows a clear seasonality. Meteorological factors might be associated with such trend but have not been studied. For the first time, we analyze the role of meteorological factors in the occurrences of HPAI outbreaks in Bangladesh. We employed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA and multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA to assess the roles of different meteorological factors in outbreaks of HPAI. Outbreaks were modeled best when multiplicative seasonality was incorporated. Incorporation of any meteorological variable(s as inputs did not improve the performance of any multivariable models, but relative humidity (RH was a significant covariate in several ARIMA and SARIMA models with different autoregressive and moving average orders. The variable cloud cover was also a significant covariate in two SARIMA models, but air temperature along with RH might be a predictor when moving average (MA order at lag 1 month is considered.

  16. Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs*

    KAUST Repository

    Castruccio, Stefano; McInerney, David J.; Stein, Michael L.; Liu Crouch, Feifei; Jacob, Robert L.; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

    2014-01-01

    functions of the past trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and a statistical model is fit using a limited set of training runs. The approach is demonstrated to be a useful and computationally efficient alternative to pattern scaling and captures

  17. A conceptual framework to model long-run qualitative change in the energy system

    OpenAIRE

    Ebersberger, Bernd

    2004-01-01

    A conceptual framework to model long-run qualitative change in the energy system / A. Pyka, B. Ebersberger, H. Hanusch. - In: Evolution and economic complexity / ed. J. Stanley Metcalfe ... - Cheltenham [u.a.] : Elgar, 2004. - S. 191-213

  18. Effects of meteorological models on the solution of the surface energy balance and soil temperature variations in bare soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Hirotaka; Šimůnek, Jiri

    2009-07-01

    SummaryA complete evaluation of the soil thermal regime can be obtained by evaluating the movement of liquid water, water vapor, and thermal energy in the subsurface. Such an evaluation requires the simultaneous solution of the system of equations for the surface water and energy balance, and subsurface heat transport and water flow. When only daily climatic data is available, one needs not only to estimate diurnal cycles of climatic data, but to calculate the continuous values of various components in the energy balance equation, using different parameterization methods. The objective of this study is to quantify the impact of the choice of different estimation and parameterization methods, referred together to as meteorological models in this paper, on soil temperature predictions in bare soils. A variety of widely accepted meteorological models were tested on the dataset collected at a proposed low-level radioactive-waste disposal site in the Chihuahua Desert in West Texas. As the soil surface was kept bare during the study, no vegetation effects were evaluated. A coupled liquid water, water vapor, and heat transport model, implemented in the HYDRUS-1D program, was used to simulate diurnal and seasonal soil temperature changes in the engineered cover installed at the site. The modified version of HYDRUS provides a flexible means for using various types of information and different models to evaluate surface mass and energy balance. Different meteorological models were compared in terms of their prediction errors for soil temperatures at seven observation depths. The results obtained indicate that although many available meteorological models can be used to solve the energy balance equation at the soil-atmosphere interface in coupled water, vapor, and heat transport models, their impact on overall simulation results varies. For example, using daily average climatic data led to greater prediction errors, while relatively simple meteorological models may

  19. Meteorological Summaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Multi-year summaries of one or more meteorological elements at a station or in a state. Primarily includes Form 1078, a United States Weather Bureau form designed...

  20. Meteorology Online.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahl, Jonathan D. W.

    2001-01-01

    Describes an activity to learn about meteorology and weather using the internet. Discusses the National Weather Service (NWS) internet site www.weather.gov. Students examine maximum and minimum daily temperatures, wind speed, and direction. (SAH)

  1. Running and rotating: modelling the dynamics of migrating cell clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copenhagen, Katherine; Gov, Nir; Gopinathan, Ajay

    Collective motion of cells is a common occurrence in many biological systems, including tissue development and repair, and tumor formation. Recent experiments have shown cells form clusters in a chemical gradient, which display three different phases of motion: translational, rotational, and random. We present a model for cell clusters based loosely on other models seen in the literature that involves a Vicsek-like alignment as well as physical collisions and adhesions between cells. With this model we show that a mechanism for driving rotational motion in this kind of system is an increased motility of rim cells. Further, we examine the details of the relationship between rim and core cells, and find that the phases of the cluster as a whole are correlated with the creation and annihilation of topological defects in the tangential component of the velocity field.

  2. Short-Run Asset Selection using a Logistic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Gonçalves Junior

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Investors constantly look for significant predictors and accurate models to forecast future results, whose occasional efficacy end up being neutralized by market efficiency. Regardless, such predictors are widely used for seeking better (and more unique perceptions. This paper aims to investigate to what extent some of the most notorious indicators have discriminatory power to select stocks, and if it is feasible with such variables to build models that could anticipate those with good performance. In order to do that, logistical regressions were conducted with stocks traded at Bovespa using the selected indicators as explanatory variables. Investigated in this study were the outputs of Bovespa Index, liquidity, the Sharpe Ratio, ROE, MB, size and age evidenced to be significant predictors. Also examined were half-year, logistical models, which were adjusted in order to check the potential acceptable discriminatory power for the asset selection.

  3. A long run intertemporal model of the oil market with uncertainty and strategic interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lensberg, T.; Rasmussen, H.

    1991-06-01

    This paper describes a model of the long run price uncertainty in the oil market. The main feature of the model is that the uncertainty about OPEC's price strategy is assumed to be generated not by irrational behavior on the part of OPEC, but by uncertainty about OPEC's size and time preference. The control of OPEC's pricing decision is assumed to shift among a set of OPEC-types over time according to a stochastic process, with each type implementing that price strategy which best fits the interests of its supporters. The model is fully dynamic on the supply side in the sense that all oil producers are assumed to understand the working of OPEC and the oil market, in particular, the non-OPEC producers base their investment decisions on rational price expectations. On the demand side, we assume that the market insight is less developed on the average, and model it by means of a long run demand curve on current prices and a simple lag structure. The long run demand curve for crude oil is generated by a fairly detailed static long-run equilibrium model of the product markets. Preliminary experience with the model indicate that prices are likely to stay below 20 dollars in the foreseeable future, but that prices around 30 dollars may occur if the present long run time perspective of OPEC is abandoned in favor of a more short run one. 26 refs., 4 figs., 7 tabs

  4. Implementation of the ATLAS Run 2 event data model

    CERN Document Server

    Buckley, Andrew; Elsing, Markus; Gillberg, Dag Ingemar; Koeneke, Karsten; Krasznahorkay, Attila; Moyse, Edward; Nowak, Marcin; Snyder, Scott; van Gemmeren, Peter

    2015-01-01

    During the 2013--2014 shutdown of the Large Hadron Collider, ATLAS switched to a new event data model for analysis, called the xAOD. A key feature of this model is the separation of the object data from the objects themselves (the `auxiliary store'). Rather being stored as member variables of the analysis classes, all object data are stored separately, as vectors of simple values. Thus, the data are stored in a `structure of arrays' format, while the user still can access it as an `array of structures'. This organization allows for on-demand partial reading of objects, the selective removal of object properties, and the addition of arbitrary user-defined properties in a uniform manner. It also improves performance by increasing the locality of memory references in typical analysis code. The resulting data structures can be written to ROOT files with data properties represented as simple ROOT tree branches. This talk will focus on the design and implementation of the auxiliary store and its interaction with RO...

  5. Implementation of the ATLAS Run 2 event data model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, A.; Eifert, T.; Elsing, M.; Gillberg, D.; Koeneke, K.; Krasznahorkay, A.; Moyse, E.; Nowak, M.; Snyder, S.; van Gemmeren, P.

    2015-12-01

    During the 2013-2014 shutdown of the Large Hadron Collider, ATLAS switched to a new event data model for analysis, called the xAOD. A key feature of this model is the separation of the object data from the objects themselves (the ‘auxiliary store’). Rather than being stored as member variables of the analysis classes, all object data are stored separately, as vectors of simple values. Thus, the data are stored in a ‘structure of arrays’ format, while the user still can access it as an ‘array of structures’. This organization allows for on-demand partial reading of objects, the selective removal of object properties, and the addition of arbitrary user- defined properties in a uniform manner. It also improves performance by increasing the locality of memory references in typical analysis code. The resulting data structures can be written to ROOT files with data properties represented as simple ROOT tree branches. This paper focuses on the design and implementation of the auxiliary store and its interaction with ROOT.

  6. Evaluating the improvements of the BOLAM meteorological model operational at ISPRA: A case study approach - preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariani, S.; Casaioli, M.; Lastoria, B.; Accadia, C.; Flavoni, S.

    2009-04-01

    The Institute for Environmental Protection and Research - ISPRA (former Agency for Environmental Protection and Technical Services - APAT) runs operationally since 2000 an integrated meteo-marine forecasting chain, named the Hydro-Meteo-Marine Forecasting System (Sistema Idro-Meteo-Mare - SIMM), formed by a cascade of four numerical models, telescoping from the Mediterranean basin to the Venice Lagoon, and initialized by means of analyses and forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The operational integrated system consists of a meteorological model, the parallel verision of BOlogna Limited Area Model (BOLAM), coupled over the Mediterranean sea with a WAve Model (WAM), a high-resolution shallow-water model of the Adriatic and Ionian Sea, namely the Princeton Ocean Model (POM), and a finite-element version of the same model (VL-FEM) on the Venice Lagoon, aimed to forecast the acqua alta events. Recently, the physically based, fully distributed, rainfall-runoff TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and Integration (TOPKAPI) model has been integrated into the system, coupled to BOLAM, over two river basins, located in the central and northeastern part of Italy, respectively. However, at the present time, this latter part of the forecasting chain is not operational and it is used in a research configuration. BOLAM was originally implemented in 2000 onto the Quadrics parallel supercomputer (and for this reason referred to as QBOLAM, as well) and only at the end of 2006 it was ported (together with the other operational marine models of the forecasting chain) onto the Silicon Graphics Inc. (SGI) Altix 8-processor machine. In particular, due to the Quadrics implementation, the Kuo scheme was formerly implemented into QBOLAM for the cumulus convection parameterization. On the contrary, when porting SIMM onto the Altix Linux cluster, it was achievable to implement into QBOLAM the more advanced convection parameterization by Kain and

  7. Uncertainty Quantification given Discontinuous Climate Model Response and a Limited Number of Model Runs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sargsyan, K.; Safta, C.; Debusschere, B.; Najm, H.

    2010-12-01

    Uncertainty quantification in complex climate models is challenged by the sparsity of available climate model predictions due to the high computational cost of model runs. Another feature that prevents classical uncertainty analysis from being readily applicable is bifurcative behavior in climate model response with respect to certain input parameters. A typical example is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The predicted maximum overturning stream function exhibits discontinuity across a curve in the space of two uncertain parameters, namely climate sensitivity and CO2 forcing. We outline a methodology for uncertainty quantification given discontinuous model response and a limited number of model runs. Our approach is two-fold. First we detect the discontinuity with Bayesian inference, thus obtaining a probabilistic representation of the discontinuity curve shape and location for arbitrarily distributed input parameter values. Then, we construct spectral representations of uncertainty, using Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansions on either side of the discontinuity curve, leading to an averaged-PC representation of the forward model that allows efficient uncertainty quantification. The approach is enabled by a Rosenblatt transformation that maps each side of the discontinuity to regular domains where desirable orthogonality properties for the spectral bases hold. We obtain PC modes by either orthogonal projection or Bayesian inference, and argue for a hybrid approach that targets a balance between the accuracy provided by the orthogonal projection and the flexibility provided by the Bayesian inference - where the latter allows obtaining reasonable expansions without extra forward model runs. The model output, and its associated uncertainty at specific design points, are then computed by taking an ensemble average over PC expansions corresponding to possible realizations of the discontinuity curve. The methodology is tested on synthetic examples of

  8. mr. A C++ library for the matching and running of the Standard Model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kniehl, Bernd A.; Veretin, Oleg L.; Pikelner, Andrey F.; Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Dubna

    2016-01-01

    We present the C++ program library mr that allows us to reliably calculate the values of the running parameters in the Standard Model at high energy scales. The initial conditions are obtained by relating the running parameters in the MS renormalization scheme to observables at lower energies with full two-loop precision. The evolution is then performed in accordance with the renormalization group equations with full three-loop precision. Pure QCD corrections to the matching and running are included through four loops. We also provide a Mathematica interface for this program library.

  9. mr. A C++ library for the matching and running of the Standard Model parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kniehl, Bernd A.; Veretin, Oleg L. [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). II. Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Pikelner, Andrey F. [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). II. Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Dubna (Russian Federation). Bogoliubov Lab. of Theoretical Physics

    2016-01-15

    We present the C++ program library mr that allows us to reliably calculate the values of the running parameters in the Standard Model at high energy scales. The initial conditions are obtained by relating the running parameters in the MS renormalization scheme to observables at lower energies with full two-loop precision. The evolution is then performed in accordance with the renormalization group equations with full three-loop precision. Pure QCD corrections to the matching and running are included through four loops. We also provide a Mathematica interface for this program library.

  10. Model study of meteorology and photochemical air pollution over un urban area in south-eastern France (ESCOMPTE campaign).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghavi, M.; Cautenet, S.

    2003-04-01

    The ESCOMPTE Campaign has been conducted over Southern France (Provence region including the Marseille, Aix and Toulon cities and the Fos-Berre industrial center) in June and July of 2001. In order to study the redistribution of the pollutants emitted by anthropic and biogenic emissions and their impact on the atmospheric chemistry, we used meso-scale modeling (RAMS model, paralleled version 4.3, coupled on line with chemical modules : MOCA2.2 (Poulet et al, 2002) including 29 gaseous species). The hourly high resolution emissions were obtained from ESCOMPTE database (Ponche et al, 2002). The model was coupled with the dry deposition scheme (Walmsley and Weseley,1996). In this particular case of complex circulation (sea breeze associated with topography), the processes involving peaks of pollution were strongly non linear, and the meso scale modeling coupled on line with chemistry module was an essential step for a realistic redistribution of chemical species. Two nested grids satisfactorily describe the synoptic dynamics and the sea breeze circulations. The ECMWF meteorological fields provide the initial and boundary conditions. Different events characterized by various meteorological situations were simulated. Meteorological fields retrieved by modeling, also Modeled ozone, NOx, CO and SO2 concentrations, were compared with balloons, lidars, aircrafts and surface stations measurements. The chemistry regimes were explained according to the distribution of plumes. The stratified layers were examined.

  11. The value of using seasonality and meteorological variables to model intra-urban PM2.5 variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olvera Alvarez, Hector A.; Myers, Orrin B.; Weigel, Margaret; Armijos, Rodrigo X.

    2018-06-01

    A yearlong air monitoring campaign was conducted to assess the impact of local temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed on the temporal and spatial variability of PM2.5 in El Paso, Texas. Monitoring was conducted at four sites purposely selected to capture the local traffic variability. Effects of meteorological events on seasonal PM2.5 variability were identified. For instance, in winter low-wind and low-temperature conditions were associated with high PM2.5 events that contributed to elevated seasonal PM2.5 levels. Similarly, in spring, high PM2.5 events were associated with high-wind and low-relative humidity conditions. Correlation coefficients between meteorological variables and PM2.5 fluctuated drastically across seasons. Specifically, it was observed that for most sites correlations between PM2.5 and meteorological variables either changed from positive to negative or dissolved depending on the season. Overall, the results suggest that mixed effects analysis with season and site as fixed factors and meteorological variables as covariates could increase the explanatory value of LUR models for PM2.5.

  12. Dynamic sensitivity analysis of long running landslide models through basis set expansion and meta-modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohmer, Jeremy

    2016-04-01

    Predicting the temporal evolution of landslides is typically supported by numerical modelling. Dynamic sensitivity analysis aims at assessing the influence of the landslide properties on the time-dependent predictions (e.g., time series of landslide displacements). Yet two major difficulties arise: 1. Global sensitivity analysis require running the landslide model a high number of times (> 1000), which may become impracticable when the landslide model has a high computation time cost (> several hours); 2. Landslide model outputs are not scalar, but function of time, i.e. they are n-dimensional vectors with n usually ranging from 100 to 1000. In this article, I explore the use of a basis set expansion, such as principal component analysis, to reduce the output dimensionality to a few components, each of them being interpreted as a dominant mode of variation in the overall structure of the temporal evolution. The computationally intensive calculation of the Sobol' indices for each of these components are then achieved through meta-modelling, i.e. by replacing the landslide model by a "costless-to-evaluate" approximation (e.g., a projection pursuit regression model). The methodology combining "basis set expansion - meta-model - Sobol' indices" is then applied to the La Frasse landslide to investigate the dynamic sensitivity analysis of the surface horizontal displacements to the slip surface properties during the pore pressure changes. I show how to extract information on the sensitivity of each main modes of temporal behaviour using a limited number (a few tens) of long running simulations. In particular, I identify the parameters, which trigger the occurrence of a turning point marking a shift between a regime of low values of landslide displacements and one of high values.

  13. On the influence of meteorological input on photochemical modelling of a severe episode over a coastal area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirovano, G.; Coll, I.; Bedogni, M.; Alessandrini, S.; Costa, M. P.; Gabusi, V.; Lasry, F.; Menut, L.; Vautard, R.

    The modelling reconstruction of the processes determining the transport and mixing of ozone and its precursors in complex terrain areas is a challenging task, particularly when local-scale circulations, such as sea breeze, take place. Within this frame, the ESCOMPTE European campaign took place in the vicinity of Marseille (south-east of France) in summer 2001. The main objectives of the field campaign were to document several photochemical episodes, as well as to constitute a detailed database for chemistry transport models intercomparison. CAMx model has been applied on the largest intense observation periods (IOP) (June 21-26, 2001) in order to evaluate the impacts of two state-of-the-art meteorological models, RAMS and MM5, on chemical model outputs. The meteorological models have been used as best as possible in analysis mode, thus allowing to identify the spread arising in pollutant concentrations as an indication of the intrinsic uncertainty associated to the meteorological input. Simulations have been deeply investigated and compared with a considerable subset of observations both at ground level and along vertical profiles. The analysis has shown that both models were able to reproduce the main circulation features of the IOP. The strongest discrepancies are confined to the Planetary Boundary Layer, consisting of a clear tendency to underestimate or overestimate wind speed over the whole domain. The photochemical simulations showed that variability in circulation intensity was crucial mainly for the representation of the ozone peaks and of the shape of ozone plumes at the ground that have been affected in the same way over the whole domain and all along the simulated period. As a consequence, such differences can be thought of as a possible indicator for the uncertainty related to the definition of meteorological fields in a complex terrain area.

  14. Smart Irrigation From Soil Moisture Forecast Using Satellite And Hydro -Meteorological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco; Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ceppi, Alessandro; Salerno, Raffaele; Sobrino, Josè

    2017-04-01

    Increased water demand and climate change impacts have recently enhanced the need to improve water resources management, even in those areas which traditionally have an abundant supply of water. The highest consumption of water is devoted to irrigation for agricultural production, and so it is in this area that efforts have to be focused to study possible interventions. The SIM project funded by EU in the framework of the WaterWorks2014 - Water Joint Programming Initiative aims at developing an operational tool for real-time forecast of crops irrigation water requirements to support parsimonious water management and to optimize irrigation scheduling providing real-time and forecasted soil moisture behavior at high spatial and temporal resolutions with forecast horizons from few up to thirty days. This study discusses advances in coupling satellite driven soil water balance model and meteorological forecast as support for precision irrigation use comparing different case studies in Italy, in the Netherlands, in China and Spain, characterized by different climatic conditions, water availability, crop types and irrigation techniques and water distribution rules. Herein, the applications in two operative farms in vegetables production in the South of Italy where semi-arid climatic conditions holds, two maize fields in Northern Italy in a more water reach environment with flood irrigation will be presented. This system combines state of the art mathematical models and new technologies for environmental monitoring, merging ground observed data with Earth observations. Discussion on the methodology approach is presented, comparing for a reanalysis periods the forecast system outputs with observed soil moisture and crop water needs proving the reliability of the forecasting system and its benefits. The real-time visualization of the implemented system is also presented through web-dashboards.

  15. Running exercise protects the capillaries in white matter in a rat model of depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lin-Mu; Zhang, Ai-Pin; Wang, Fei-Fei; Tan, Chuan-Xue; Gao, Yuan; Huang, Chun-Xia; Zhang, Yi; Jiang, Lin; Zhou, Chun-Ni; Chao, Feng-Lei; Zhang, Lei; Tang, Yong

    2016-12-01

    Running has been shown to improve depressive symptoms when used as an adjunct to medication. However, the mechanisms underlying the antidepressant effects of running are not fully understood. Changes of capillaries in white matter have been discovered in clinical patients and depression model rats. Considering the important part of white matter in depression, running may cause capillary structural changes in white matter. Chronic unpredictable stress (CUS) rats were provided with a 4-week running exercise (from the fifth week to the eighth week) for 20 minutes each day for 5 consecutive days each week. Anhedonia was measured by a behavior test. Furthermore, capillary changes were investigated in the control group, the CUS/Standard group, and the CUS/Running group using stereological methods. The 4-week running increased sucrose consumption significantly in the CUS/Running group and had significant effects on the total volume, total length, and total surface area of the capillaries in the white matter of depression rats. These results demonstrated that exercise-induced protection of the capillaries in white matter might be one of the structural bases for the exercise-induced treatment of depression. It might provide important parameters for further study of the vascular mechanisms of depression and a new research direction for the development of clinical antidepressant means. J. Comp. Neurol. 524:3577-3586, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Modeling the impacts of green infrastructure land use changes on air quality and meteorology case study and sensitivity analysis in Kansas City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changes in vegetation cover associated with urban planning efforts may affect regional meteorology and air quality. Here we use a comprehensive coupled meteorology-air quality model (WRF-CMAQ) to simulate the influence of planned land use changes from green infrastructure impleme...

  17. Sulphur simulations for East Asia using the MATCH model with meteorological data from ECMWF

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engardt, Magnuz

    2000-03-01

    As part of a model intercomparison exercise, with participants from a number of Asian, European and American institutes, sulphur transport and conversion calculations were conducted over an East Asian domain for 2 different months in 1993. All participants used the same emission inventory and simulated concentration and deposition at a number of prescribed geographic locations. The participants were asked to run their respective model both with standard parameters, and with a set of given parameters, in order to examine the different behaviour of the models. The study included comparison with measured data and model-to-model intercomparisons, notably source-receptor relationships. We hereby describe the MATCH model, used in the study, and report some typical results. We find that although the standard and the prescribed set of model parameters differed significantly in terms of sulphur conversion and wet scavenging rate, the resulting change in atmospheric concentrations and surface depositions only change marginally. We show that it is often more critical to choose a representative gridbox value than selecting a parameter from the suite available. The modelled, near-surface, atmospheric concentration of sulphur in eastern China is typically 5- 10 {mu}g S m{sup -3}, with large areas exceeding 20 {mu}g S m{sup -3}. In southern Japan the values range from 2-5 {mu}g S m{sup -3} . Atmospheric SO{sub 2} dominates over sulphate near the emission regions while sulphate concentrations are higher over e.g. the western Pacific. The sulphur deposition exceeds several g sulphur m{sup -2} year{sup -1} in large areas of China. Southern Japan receives 03-1 g S m{sup -2} year{sup -1}. In January, the total wet deposition roughly equals the dry deposition, in May - when it rains more in the domain - total wet deposition is ca. 50% larger than total dry deposition.

  18. Coupling X-band dual-polarized mini-radars and hydro-meteorological forecast models: the HYDRORAD project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Picciotti

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Hydro-meteorological hazards like convective outbreaks leading to torrential rain and floods are among the most critical environmental issues world-wide. In that context weather radar observations have proven to be very useful in providing information on the spatial distribution of rainfall that can support early warning of floods. However, quantitative precipitation estimation by radar is subjected to many limitations and uncertainties. The use of dual-polarization at high frequency (i.e. X-band has proven particularly useful for mitigating some of the limitation of operational systems, by exploiting the benefit of easiness to transport and deploy and the high spatial and temporal resolution achievable at small antenna sizes. New developments on X-band dual-polarization technology in recent years have received the interest of scientific and operational communities in these systems. New enterprises are focusing on the advancement of cost-efficient mini-radar network technology, based on high-frequency (mainly X-band and low-power weather radar systems for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological forecasting. Within the above context, the main objective of the HYDRORAD project was the development of an innovative mbox{integrated} decision support tool for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological applications. The integrated system tool is based on a polarimetric X-band mini-radar network which is the core of the decision support tool, a novel radar products generator and a hydro-meteorological forecast modelling system that ingests mini-radar rainfall products to forecast precipitation and floods. The radar products generator includes algorithms for attenuation correction, hydrometeor classification, a vertical profile reflectivity correction, a new polarimetric rainfall estimators developed for mini-radar observations, and short-term nowcasting of convective cells. The hydro-meteorological modelling system includes the Mesoscale Model 5

  19. Sensitivity of ocean model simulation in the coastal ocean to the resolution of the meteorological forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Feng; Shapiro, Georgy; Thain, Richard

    2013-04-01

    The quality of ocean simulations depends on a number of factors such as approximations in governing equations, errors introduced by the numerical scheme, uncertainties in input parameters, and atmospheric forcing. The identification of relations between the uncertainties in input and output data is still a challenge for the development of numerical models. The impacts of ocean variables on ocean models are still not well known (e.g., Kara et al., 2009). Given the considerable importance of the atmospheric forcing to the air-sea interaction, it is essential that researchers in ocean modelling work need a good understanding about how sensitive the atmospheric forcing is to variations of model results, which is beneficial to the development of ocean models. Also, it provides a proper way to choose the atmospheric forcing in ocean modelling applications. Our previous study (Shapiro et al, 2011) has shown that the basin-wide circulation pattern and the temperature structure in the Black Sea produced by the same model is significantly dependent on the source of the meteorological input, giving remarkably different responses. For the purpose of this study we have chosen the Celtic Sea where high resolution meteo data are available from the UK Met office since 2006. The Celtic Sea is tidally dominated water basin, with the tidal stream amplitude varying from 0.25m/s in the southwest to 2 m/s in the Bristol Channel. It is also filled with mesoscale eddies which contribute to the formation of the residual (tidally averaged) circulation pattern (Young et al, 2003). The sea is strongly stratified from April to November, which adds to the formation of density driven currents. In this paper we analyse how sensitive the model output is to variations in the spatial resolution of meteorological using low (1.6°) and high (0.11°) resolution meteo forcing, giving the quantitative relation between variations of met forcing and the resulted differences of model results, as well as

  20. Impact of atmospheric release in stable night meteorological conditions; can emergency models predict dispersion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Connan, O.; Hebert, D.; Solier, L.; Voiseux, C.; Lamotte, M.; Laguionie, P.; Maro, D.; Thomas, L. [IRSN/PRP-ENV/SERIS/LRC (France)

    2014-07-01

    Atmospheric dispersion of pollutant or radionuclides in stratified meteorological condition, i.e. especially when weather conditions are very stable, mainly at night, is still poorly understood and not well apprehended by the operational atmospheric dispersion models. However, correctly predicting the dispersion of a radioactive plume, and estimating the radiological consequences for the population, following an unplanned atmospheric release of radionuclides are crucial steps in an emergency response. To better understand dispersion in these special weather conditions, IRSN performed a series of 22 air sampling campaigns between 2010 and 2013 in the vicinity of the La Hague nuclear reprocessing plant (AREVA - NC, France), at distances between 200 m and 3000 m from the facility. Krypton-85 ({sup 85}Kr), a b-and g-emitting radionuclide, released during the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel was used as a non-reactive tracer of radioactive plumes. Experimental campaigns were realized in stability class stable or very stable (E or F according to Pasquill classification) 18 times, and in neutral conditions (D according to Pasquill classification) 4 times. During each campaign, Krypton-85 real time measurement were made to find the plume around the plant, and then integrated samples (30 min) were collected in bag perpendicularly to the assumed wind direction axis. After measurement by gamma spectrometry, we have, when it was possible, estimate the point of impact and the width of the plume. The objective was to estimate the horizontal dispersion (width) of the plume at ground level in function of the distance and be able to calculate atmospheric transfer coefficients. In a second step, objective was to conclude on the use of common model and on their uncertainties. The results will be presented in terms of impact on the near-field. They will be compared with data obtained in previous years in neutral atmospheric conditions, and finally the results will be confronted with

  1. Modeling the Short-Term Effect of Traffic and Meteorology on Air Pollution in Turin with Generalized Additive Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pancrazio Bertaccini

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Vehicular traffic plays an important role in atmospheric pollution and can be used as one of the key predictors in air-quality forecasting models. The models that can account for the role of traffic are especially valuable in urban areas, where high pollutant concentrations are often observed during particular times of day (rush hour and year (winter. In this paper, we develop a generalized additive models approach to analyze the behavior of concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2, and particulate matter (PM10, collected at the environmental monitoring stations distributed throughout the city of Turin, Italy, from December 2003 to April 2005. We describe nonlinear relationships between predictors and pollutants, that are adjusted for unobserved time-varying confounders. We examine several functional forms for the traffic variable and find that a simple form can often provide adequate modeling power. Our analysis shows that there is a saturation effect of traffic on NO2, while such saturation is less evident in models linking traffic to PM10 behavior, having adjusted for meteorological covariates. Moreover, we consider the proposed models separately by seasons and highlight similarities and differences in the predictors’ partial effects. Finally, we show how forecasting can help in evaluating traffic regulation policies.

  2. The introduction of horizontal inhomogeneity of meteorological conditions in the EOSTAR propagation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eijk, A.M.J. van; Kunz, G.J.

    2006-01-01

    The effective field-of-view of an electro-optical sensor in a given meteorological scenario can be evaluated using a ray-tracer. The resulting ray trace diagram also provides information pertinent to the quality (distortion, mirages) of the image being viewed by the sensor. The EOSTAR (Electro

  3. Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

    KAUST Repository

    El-Samra, R.

    2017-02-15

    A set of ten downscaling simulations at high spatial resolution (3 km horizontally) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate future climate projections of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over the Eastern Mediterranean (with a focus on Lebanon). The model was driven with the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), running over the whole globe at a resolution of 25 km, under the conditions of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (4.5 and 8.5). Each downscaling simulation spanned one year. Two past years (2003 and 2008), also forced by HiRAM without data assimilation, were simulated to evaluate the model’s ability to capture the cold and wet (2003) and hot and dry (2008) extremes. The downscaled data were in the range of recent observed climatic variability, and therefore corrected for the cold bias of HiRAM. Eight future years were then selected based on an anomaly score that relies on the mean annual temperature and accumulated precipitation to identify the worst year per decade from a water resources perspective. One hot and dry year per decade, from 2011 to 2050, and per scenario was simulated and compared to the historic 2008 reference. The results indicate that hot and dry future extreme years will be exacerbated and the study area might be exposed to a significant decrease in annual precipitation (rain and snow), reaching up to 30% relative to the current extreme conditions.

  4. Micro-meteorological modelling in urban areas: pollutant dispersion and radiative effects modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milliez, Maya

    2006-01-01

    Atmospheric pollution and urban climate studies require to take into account the complex processes due to heterogeneity of urban areas and the interaction with the buildings. In order to estimate the impact of buildings on flow and pollutant dispersion, detailed numerical simulations were performed over an idealized urban area, with the three-dimensional model Mercure-Saturne, modelling both concentration means and their fluctuations. To take into account atmospheric radiation in built up areas and the thermal effects of the buildings, we implemented a three-dimensional radiative model adapted to complex geometry. This model, adapted from a scheme used for thermal radiation, solves the radiative transfer equation in a semi-transparent media, using the discrete ordinate method. The new scheme was validated with idealized cases and compared to a complete case. (author) [fr

  5. Wheel-running in a transgenic mouse model of Alzheimer's disease: protection or symptom?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Helene; Ambrée, Oliver; Lewejohann, Lars; Herring, Arne; Keyvani, Kathy; Paulus, Werner; Palme, Rupert; Touma, Chadi; Schäbitz, Wolf-Rüdiger; Sachser, Norbert

    2008-06-26

    Several studies on both humans and animals reveal benefits of physical exercise on brain function and health. A previous study on TgCRND8 mice, a transgenic model of Alzheimer's disease, reported beneficial effects of premorbid onset of long-term access to a running wheel on spatial learning and plaque deposition. Our study investigated the effects of access to a running wheel after the onset of Abeta pathology on behavioural, endocrinological, and neuropathological parameters. From day 80 of age, the time when Abeta deposition becomes apparent, TgCRND8 and wildtype mice were kept with or without running wheel. Home cage behaviour was analysed and cognitive abilities regarding object recognition memory and spatial learning in the Barnes maze were assessed. Our results show that, in comparison to Wt mice, Tg mice were characterised by impaired object recognition memory and spatial learning, increased glucocorticoid levels, hyperactivity in the home cage and high levels of stereotypic behaviour. Access to a running wheel had no effects on cognitive or neuropathological parameters, but reduced the amount of stereotypic behaviour in transgenics significantly. Furthermore, wheel-running was inversely correlated with stereotypic behaviour, suggesting that wheel-running may have stereotypic qualities. In addition, wheel-running positively correlated with plaque burden. Thus, in a phase when plaques are already present in the brain, it may be symptomatic of brain pathology, rather than protective. Whether or not access to a running wheel has beneficial effects on Alzheimer-like pathology and symptoms may therefore strongly depend on the exact time when the wheel is provided during development of the disease.

  6. Modelling the future distribution of ammonium nitrate concentrations in The Netherlands for 2020: The sensitivity to meteorological parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, J. E.; van der Swaluw, E.; de Vries, W. J.; Sauter, F. J.; van Pul, W. A. J.; Hoogerbrugge, R.

    2015-08-01

    We present a parameterization developed to simulate Ammonium particle (NH4+) concentrations in the Operational Priority Substances (OPS) source-receptor model, without the necessity of using a detailed chemical scheme. By using the ratios of the main pre-cursor gases SO2, NO2 and NH3, and utilising calculations performed using a chemical box-model, we show that the parameterization can simulate annual mean NH4+ concentration fields to within ∼15% of measured values at locations throughout the Netherlands. Performing simulations for different decades, we find a strong correlation of simulated NH4+ distributions for both past (1993-1995) and present (2009-2012) time periods. Although the total concentration of NH4+ has decreased over the period, we find that the fraction of NH4+ transported into the Netherlands has increased from around 40% in the past to 50% for present-day. This is due to the variable efficiency of mitigation practises across economic sectors. Performing simulations for the year 2020 using associated emission estimates, we show that there are generally decreases of ∼8-25% compared to present day concentrations. By altering the meteorological fields applied in the future simulations, we show that a significant uncertainty of between ∼50 and 100% exists on this estimated NH4+ distribution as a result of variability in the temperature dependent emission terms and relative humidity. Therefore, any projections of future NH4+ distributions should be performed using well chosen meteorological fields representing recent meteorological situations.

  7. A Low-order Coupled Chemistry Meteorology Model for Testing Online and Offline Advanced Data Assimilation Schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocquet, M.; Haussaire, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    Bocquet and Sakov have recently introduced a low-order model based on the coupling of thechaotic Lorenz-95 model which simulates winds along a mid-latitude circle, with thetransport of a tracer species advected by this wind field. It has been used to testadvanced data assimilation methods with an online model that couples meteorology andtracer transport. In the present study, the tracer subsystem of the model is replacedwith a reduced photochemistry module meant to emulate reactive air pollution. Thiscoupled chemistry meteorology model, the L95-GRS model, mimics continental andtranscontinental transport and photochemistry of ozone, volatile organic compounds andnitrogen dioxides.The L95-GRS is specially useful in testing advanced data assimilation schemes, such as theiterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS) that combines the best of ensemble andvariational methods. The model provides useful insights prior to any implementation ofthe data assimilation method on larger models. For instance, online and offline dataassimilation strategies based on the ensemble Kalman filter or the IEnKS can easily beevaluated with it. It allows to document the impact of species concentration observationson the wind estimation. The model also illustrates a long standing issue in atmosphericchemistry forecasting: the impact of the wind chaotic dynamics and of the chemical speciesnon-chaotic but highly nonlinear dynamics on the selected data assimilation approach.

  8. Modelling microphysical and meteorological controls on precipitation and cloud cellular structures in Southeast Pacific stratocumulus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wang

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Microphysical and meteorological controls on the formation of open and closed cellular structures in the Southeast Pacific are explored using model simulations based on aircraft observations during the VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx. The effectiveness of factors such as boundary-layer moisture and temperature perturbations, surface heat and moisture fluxes, large-scale vertical motion and solar heating in promoting drizzle and open cell formation for prescribed aerosol number concentrations is explored. For the case considered, drizzle and subsequent open cell formation over a broad region are more sensitive to the observed boundary-layer moisture and temperature perturbations (+0.9 g kg−1; −1 K than to a five-fold decrease in aerosol number concentration (150 vs. 30 mg−1. When embedding the perturbations in closed cells, local drizzle and pockets of open cell (POC formation respond faster to the aerosol reduction than to the moisture increase, but the latter generates stronger and more persistent drizzle. A local negative perturbation in temperature drives a mesoscale circulation that prevents local drizzle formation but promotes it in a remote area where lower-level horizontal transport of moisture is blocked and converges to enhance liquid water path. This represents a potential mechanism for POC formation in the Southeast Pacific stratocumulus region whereby the circulation is triggered by strong precipitation in adjacent broad regions of open cells. A simulation that attempts to mimic the influence of a coastally induced upsidence wave results in an increase in cloud water but this alone is insufficient to initiate drizzle. An increase of surface sensible heat flux is also effective in triggering local drizzle and POC formation.

    Both open and closed cells simulated with observed initial conditions exhibit distinct diurnal variations in cloud properties. A

  9. Methods and strategy for modeling daily global solar radiation with measured meteorological data - A case study in Nanchang station, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Guofeng; Liu, Yaolin; Wang, Tiejun

    2007-01-01

    Solar radiation is a primary driver for many physical, chemical and biological processes on the earth's surface, and complete and accurate solar radiation data at a specific region are quite indispensable to the solar energy related researches. This study, with Nanchang station, China, as a case study, aimed to calibrate existing models and develop new models for estimating missing global solar radiation data using commonly measured meteorological data and to propose a strategy for selecting the optimal models under different situations of available meteorological data. Using daily global radiation, sunshine hours, temperature, total precipitation and dew point data covering the years from 1994 to 2005, we calibrated or developed and evaluated seven existing models and two new models. Validation criteria included intercept, slope, coefficient of determination, mean bias error and root mean square error. The best result (R 2 = 0.93) was derived from Chen model 2, which uses sunshine hours and temperature as predictors. The Bahel model, which only uses sunshine hours, was almost as good, explaining 92% of the solar radiation variance. Temperature based models (Bristow and Campbell, Allen, Hargreaves and Chen 1 models) provided less accurate results, of which the best one (R 2 = 0.69) is the Bristow and Campbell model. The temperature based models were improved by adding other variables (daily mean total precipitation and mean dew point). Two such models could explain 77% (Wu model 1) and 80% (Wu model 2) of the solar radiation variance. We, thus, propose a strategy for selecting an optimal method for calculating missing daily values of global solar radiation: (1) when sunshine hour and temperature data are available, use Chen model 2; (2) when only sunshine hour data are available, use Bahel model; (3) when temperature, total precipitation and dew point data are available but not sunshine hours, use Wu model 2; (4) when only temperature and total precipitation are

  10. Integration of Ground, Buoys, Satellite and Model data to map the Changes in Meteorological Parameters Associated with Harvey Hurricane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chauhan, A.; Sarkar, S.; Singh, R. P.

    2017-12-01

    The coastal areas have dense onshore and marine observation network and are also routinely monitored by constellation of satellites. The monitoring of ocean, land and atmosphere through a range of meteorological parameters, provides information about the land and ocean surface. Satellite data also provide information at different pressure levels that help to access the development of tropical storms and formation of hurricanes at different categories. Integration of ground, buoys, satellite and model data showing the changes in meteorological parameters during the landfall stages of hurricane Harvey will be discussed. Hurricane Harvey was one of the deadliest hurricanes at the Gulf coast which caused intense flooding from the precipitation. The various observation networks helped city administrators to evacuate the coastal areas, that minimized the loss of lives compared to the Galveston hurricane of 1900 which took 10,000 lives. Comparison of meteorological parameters derived from buoys, ground stations and satellites associated with Harvey and 2005 Katrina hurricane present some of the interesting features of the two hurricanes.

  11. Analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft exhaust dispersion and deposition using a Lagrangian particle model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pecorari, Eliana; Mantovani, Alice; Franceschini, Chiara; Bassano, Davide; Palmeri, Luca; Rampazzo, Giancarlo

    2016-01-15

    The risk of air quality degradation is of considerable concern particularly for those airports that are located near urban areas. The ability to quantitatively predict the effects of air pollutants originated by airport operations is important for assessing air quality and the related impacts on human health. Current emission regulations have focused on local air quality in the proximity of airports. However, an integrated study should consider the effects of meteorological events, at both regional and local level, that can affect the dispersion and the deposition of exhausts. Rigorous scientific studies and extensive experimental data could contribute to the analysis of the impacts of airports expansion plans. This paper is focused on the analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft emission for the Marco Polo Airport in Venice. This is the most important international airport in the eastern part of the Po' Valley, one of the most polluted area in Europe. Air pollution is exacerbated by meteorology that is a combination of large and local scale effects that do not allow significant dispersion. Moreover, the airport is located near Venice, a city of noteworthy cultural and architectural relevance, and nearby the lagoon that hosts several areas of outstanding ecological importance at European level (Natura 2000 sites). Dispersion and deposit of the main aircraft exhausts (NOx, HC and CO) have been evaluated by using a Lagrangian particle model. Spatial and temporal aircraft exhaust dispersion has been analyzed for LTO cycle. Aircraft taxiing resulted to be the most impacting aircraft operation especially for the airport working area and its surroundings, however occasionally peaks may be observed even at high altitudes when cruise mode starts. Mixing height can affect concentrations more significantly than the concentrations in the exhausts themselves. An increase of HC and CO concentrations (15-50%) has been observed during specific meteorological events

  12. The Model of the Software Running on a Computer Equipment Hardware Included in the Grid network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. A. Mityushkina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A new approach to building a cloud computing environment using Grid networks is proposed in this paper. The authors describe the functional capabilities, algorithm, model of software running on a computer equipment hardware included in the Grid network, that will allow to implement cloud computing environment using Grid technologies.

  13. ASCHFLOW - A dynamic landslide run-out model for medium scale hazard analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Quan Luna, B.; Blahůt, Jan; van Asch, T.W.J.; van Westen, C.J.; Kappes, M.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 3, 12 December (2016), č. článku 29. E-ISSN 2197-8670 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : landslides * run-out models * medium scale hazard analysis * quantitative risk assessment Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography

  14. Analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft exhaust dispersion and deposition using a Lagrangian particle model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pecorari, Eliana, E-mail: eliana.pecorari@unive.it [Department of Environmental Science, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Calle Larga Santa Marta 2137, Dorsoduro, 30123 Venezia (Italy); Mantovani, Alice [OSMOTECH S.r.l., via Francesco Sforza, 15, 20122 Milano (Italy); Franceschini, Chiara [Department of Environmental Science, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Calle Larga Santa Marta 2137, Dorsoduro, 30123 Venezia (Italy); Bassano, Davide [SAVE S.p.A., Marco Polo Venice airport viale G. Galilei 30/1, 30173 Tessera-Venezia (Italy); Palmeri, Luca [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Padova, v. Marzolo 9, 35131 Padova (Italy); Rampazzo, Giancarlo [Department of Environmental Science, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Calle Larga Santa Marta 2137, Dorsoduro, 30123 Venezia (Italy)

    2016-01-15

    The risk of air quality degradation is of considerable concern particularly for those airports that are located near urban areas. The ability to quantitatively predict the effects of air pollutants originated by airport operations is important for assessing air quality and the related impacts on human health. Current emission regulations have focused on local air quality in the proximity of airports. However, an integrated study should consider the effects of meteorological events, at both regional and local level, that can affect the dispersion and the deposition of exhausts. Rigorous scientific studies and extensive experimental data could contribute to the analysis of the impacts of airports expansion plans. This paper is focused on the analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft emission for the Marco Polo Airport in Venice. This is the most important international airport in the eastern part of the Po’ Valley, one of the most polluted area in Europe. Air pollution is exacerbated by meteorology that is a combination of large and local scale effects that do not allow significant dispersion. Moreover, the airport is located near Venice, a city of noteworthy cultural and architectural relevance, and nearby the lagoon that hosts several areas of outstanding ecological importance at European level (Natura 2000 sites). Dispersion and deposit of the main aircraft exhausts (NOx, HC and CO) have been evaluated by using a Lagrangian particle model. Spatial and temporal aircraft exhaust dispersion has been analyzed for LTO cycle. Aircraft taxiing resulted to be the most impacting aircraft operation especially for the airport working area and its surroundings, however occasionally peaks may be observed even at high altitudes when cruise mode starts. Mixing height can affect concentrations more significantly than the concentrations in the exhausts themselves. An increase of HC and CO concentrations (15–50%) has been observed during specific meteorological events

  15. Analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft exhaust dispersion and deposition using a Lagrangian particle model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pecorari, Eliana; Mantovani, Alice; Franceschini, Chiara; Bassano, Davide; Palmeri, Luca; Rampazzo, Giancarlo

    2016-01-01

    The risk of air quality degradation is of considerable concern particularly for those airports that are located near urban areas. The ability to quantitatively predict the effects of air pollutants originated by airport operations is important for assessing air quality and the related impacts on human health. Current emission regulations have focused on local air quality in the proximity of airports. However, an integrated study should consider the effects of meteorological events, at both regional and local level, that can affect the dispersion and the deposition of exhausts. Rigorous scientific studies and extensive experimental data could contribute to the analysis of the impacts of airports expansion plans. This paper is focused on the analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft emission for the Marco Polo Airport in Venice. This is the most important international airport in the eastern part of the Po’ Valley, one of the most polluted area in Europe. Air pollution is exacerbated by meteorology that is a combination of large and local scale effects that do not allow significant dispersion. Moreover, the airport is located near Venice, a city of noteworthy cultural and architectural relevance, and nearby the lagoon that hosts several areas of outstanding ecological importance at European level (Natura 2000 sites). Dispersion and deposit of the main aircraft exhausts (NOx, HC and CO) have been evaluated by using a Lagrangian particle model. Spatial and temporal aircraft exhaust dispersion has been analyzed for LTO cycle. Aircraft taxiing resulted to be the most impacting aircraft operation especially for the airport working area and its surroundings, however occasionally peaks may be observed even at high altitudes when cruise mode starts. Mixing height can affect concentrations more significantly than the concentrations in the exhausts themselves. An increase of HC and CO concentrations (15–50%) has been observed during specific meteorological events

  16. Simulation of nonlinear wave run-up with a high-order Boussinesq model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuhrman, David R.; Madsen, Per A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper considers the numerical simulation of nonlinear wave run-up within a highly accurate Boussinesq-type model. Moving wet–dry boundary algorithms based on so-called extrapolating boundary techniques are utilized, and a new variant of this approach is proposed in two horizontal dimensions....... As validation, computed results involving the nonlinear run-up of periodic as well as transient waves on a sloping beach are considered in a single horizontal dimension, demonstrating excellent agreement with analytical solutions for both the free surface and horizontal velocity. In two horizontal dimensions...... cases involving long wave resonance in a parabolic basin, solitary wave evolution in a triangular channel, and solitary wave run-up on a circular conical island are considered. In each case the computed results compare well against available analytical solutions or experimental measurements. The ability...

  17. Threshold effects on renormalization group running of neutrino parameters in the low-scale seesaw model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergstroem, Johannes; Ohlsson, Tommy; Zhang He

    2011-01-01

    We show that, in the low-scale type-I seesaw model, renormalization group running of neutrino parameters may lead to significant modifications of the leptonic mixing angles in view of so-called seesaw threshold effects. Especially, we derive analytical formulas for radiative corrections to neutrino parameters in crossing the different seesaw thresholds, and show that there may exist enhancement factors efficiently boosting the renormalization group running of the leptonic mixing angles. We find that, as a result of the seesaw threshold corrections to the leptonic mixing angles, various flavor symmetric mixing patterns (e.g., bi-maximal and tri-bimaximal mixing patterns) can be easily accommodated at relatively low energy scales, which is well within the reach of running and forthcoming experiments (e.g., the LHC).

  18. Modeling driver stop/run behavior at the onset of a yellow indication considering driver run tendency and roadway surface conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elhenawy, Mohammed; Jahangiri, Arash; Rakha, Hesham A; El-Shawarby, Ihab

    2015-10-01

    The ability to model driver stop/run behavior at signalized intersections considering the roadway surface condition is critical in the design of advanced driver assistance systems. Such systems can reduce intersection crashes and fatalities by predicting driver stop/run behavior. The research presented in this paper uses data collected from two controlled field experiments on the Smart Road at the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) to model driver stop/run behavior at the onset of a yellow indication for different roadway surface conditions. The paper offers two contributions. First, it introduces a new predictor related to driver aggressiveness and demonstrates that this measure enhances the modeling of driver stop/run behavior. Second, it applies well-known artificial intelligence techniques including: adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), random forest, and support vector machine (SVM) algorithms as well as traditional logistic regression techniques on the data in order to develop a model that can be used by traffic signal controllers to predict driver stop/run decisions in a connected vehicle environment. The research demonstrates that by adding the proposed driver aggressiveness predictor to the model, there is a statistically significant increase in the model accuracy. Moreover the false alarm rate is significantly reduced but this reduction is not statistically significant. The study demonstrates that, for the subject data, the SVM machine learning algorithm performs the best in terms of optimum classification accuracy and false positive rates. However, the SVM model produces the best performance in terms of the classification accuracy only. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. A rapid estimation of tsunami run-up based on finite fault models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campos, J.; Fuentes, M. A.; Hayes, G. P.; Barrientos, S. E.; Riquelme, S.

    2014-12-01

    Many efforts have been made to estimate the maximum run-up height of tsunamis associated with large earthquakes. This is a difficult task, because of the time it takes to construct a tsunami model using real time data from the source. It is possible to construct a database of potential seismic sources and their corresponding tsunami a priori. However, such models are generally based on uniform slip distributions and thus oversimplify our knowledge of the earthquake source. Instead, we can use finite fault models of earthquakes to give a more accurate prediction of the tsunami run-up. Here we show how to accurately predict tsunami run-up from any seismic source model using an analytic solution found by Fuentes et al, 2013 that was especially calculated for zones with a very well defined strike, i.e, Chile, Japan, Alaska, etc. The main idea of this work is to produce a tool for emergency response, trading off accuracy for quickness. Our solutions for three large earthquakes are promising. Here we compute models of the run-up for the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule Earthquake, the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake, and the recent 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique Earthquake. Our maximum rup-up predictions are consistent with measurements made inland after each event, with a peak of 15 to 20 m for Maule, 40 m for Tohoku, and 2,1 m for the Iquique earthquake. Considering recent advances made in the analysis of real time GPS data and the ability to rapidly resolve the finiteness of a large earthquake close to existing GPS networks, it will be possible in the near future to perform these calculations within the first five minutes after the occurrence of any such event. Such calculations will thus provide more accurate run-up information than is otherwise available from existing uniform-slip seismic source databases.

  20. Simulating run-up on steep slopes with operational Boussinesq models; capabilities, spurious effects and instabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Løvholt

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Tsunamis induced by rock slides plunging into fjords constitute a severe threat to local coastal communities. The rock slide impact may give rise to highly non-linear waves in the near field, and because the wave lengths are relatively short, frequency dispersion comes into play. Fjord systems are rugged with steep slopes, and modeling non-linear dispersive waves in this environment with simultaneous run-up is demanding. We have run an operational Boussinesq-type TVD (total variation diminishing model using different run-up formulations. Two different tests are considered, inundation on steep slopes and propagation in a trapezoidal channel. In addition, a set of Lagrangian models serves as reference models. Demanding test cases with solitary waves with amplitudes ranging from 0.1 to 0.5 were applied, and slopes were ranging from 10 to 50°. Different run-up formulations yielded clearly different accuracy and stability, and only some provided similar accuracy as the reference models. The test cases revealed that the model was prone to instabilities for large non-linearity and fine resolution. Some of the instabilities were linked with false breaking during the first positive inundation, which was not observed for the reference models. None of the models were able to handle the bore forming during drawdown, however. The instabilities are linked to short-crested undulations on the grid scale, and appear on fine resolution during inundation. As a consequence, convergence was not always obtained. It is reason to believe that the instability may be a general problem for Boussinesq models in fjords.

  1. Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs*

    KAUST Repository

    Castruccio, Stefano

    2014-03-01

    The authors describe a new approach for emulating the output of a fully coupled climate model under arbitrary forcing scenarios that is based on a small set of precomputed runs from the model. Temperature and precipitation are expressed as simple functions of the past trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and a statistical model is fit using a limited set of training runs. The approach is demonstrated to be a useful and computationally efficient alternative to pattern scaling and captures the nonlinear evolution of spatial patterns of climate anomalies inherent in transient climates. The approach does as well as pattern scaling in all circumstances and substantially better in many; it is not computationally demanding; and, once the statistical model is fit, it produces emulated climate output effectively instantaneously. It may therefore find wide application in climate impacts assessments and other policy analyses requiring rapid climate projections.

  2. Tsunami generation, propagation, and run-up with a high-order Boussinesq model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuhrman, David R.; Madsen, Per A.

    2009-01-01

    In this work we extend a high-order Boussinesq-type (finite difference) model, capable of simulating waves out to wavenumber times depth kh landslide-induced tsunamis. The extension is straight forward, requiring only....... The Boussinesq-type model is then used to simulate numerous tsunami-type events generated from submerged landslides, in both one and two horizontal dimensions. The results again compare well against previous experiments and/or numerical simulations. The new extension compliments recently developed run...

  3. Human and avian running on uneven ground: a model-based comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Müller, R.; Birn-Jeffery, A. V.; Blum, Y.

    2016-01-01

    Birds and humans are successful bipedal runners, who have individually evolved bipedalism, but the extent of the similarities and differences of their bipedal locomotion is unknown. In turn, the anatomical differences of their locomotor systems complicate direct comparisons. However, a simplifying mechanical model, such as the conservative spring–mass model, can be used to describe both avian and human running and thus, provides a way to compare the locomotor strategies that birds and humans ...

  4. Mathematical models for atmospheric pollutants. Appendix A. Elements of meteorology. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drake, R.L.; Laulainen, N.S.

    1979-08-01

    The meteorological elements that are important in the transport and fate of airborne pollutants are summarized. The summary consists of descriptions of the thermal, water, kinematic and dynamic structures of the atmosphere, the time and space scale classifications of atmospheric motions, and modifications of pollutant plumes as they pass over nonhomogeneous surface conditions and complex terrain. The discussions consider the atmospheric thermal layers and their stability, formation of clouds and the production of rain and snow, the movement of air masses and weather fronts, the horizontal winds in the planetary boundary layer, and wind profiles over transition zones and complex terrain

  5. Running the running

    OpenAIRE

    Cabass, Giovanni; Di Valentino, Eleonora; Melchiorri, Alessandro; Pajer, Enrico; Silk, Joseph

    2016-01-01

    We use the recent observations of Cosmic Microwave Background temperature and polarization anisotropies provided by the Planck satellite experiment to place constraints on the running $\\alpha_\\mathrm{s} = \\mathrm{d}n_{\\mathrm{s}} / \\mathrm{d}\\log k$ and the running of the running $\\beta_{\\mathrm{s}} = \\mathrm{d}\\alpha_{\\mathrm{s}} / \\mathrm{d}\\log k$ of the spectral index $n_{\\mathrm{s}}$ of primordial scalar fluctuations. We find $\\alpha_\\mathrm{s}=0.011\\pm0.010$ and $\\beta_\\mathrm{s}=0.027\\...

  6. Whole-Motion Model of Perception during Forward- and Backward-Facing Centrifuge Runs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holly, Jan E.; Vrublevskis, Arturs; Carlson, Lindsay E.

    2009-01-01

    Illusory perceptions of motion and orientation arise during human centrifuge runs without vision. Asymmetries have been found between acceleration and deceleration, and between forward-facing and backward-facing runs. Perceived roll tilt has been studied extensively during upright fixed-carriage centrifuge runs, and other components have been studied to a lesser extent. Certain, but not all, perceptual asymmetries in acceleration-vs-deceleration and forward-vs-backward motion can be explained by existing analyses. The immediate acceleration-deceleration roll-tilt asymmetry can be explained by the three-dimensional physics of the external stimulus; in addition, longer-term data has been modeled in a standard way using physiological time constants. However, the standard modeling approach is shown in the present research to predict forward-vs-backward-facing symmetry in perceived roll tilt, contradicting experimental data, and to predict perceived sideways motion, rather than forward or backward motion, around a curve. The present work develops a different whole-motion-based model taking into account the three-dimensional form of perceived motion and orientation. This model predicts perceived forward or backward motion around a curve, and predicts additional asymmetries such as the forward-backward difference in roll tilt. This model is based upon many of the same principles as the standard model, but includes an additional concept of familiarity of motions as a whole. PMID:19208962

  7. Nonhydrostatic and surfbeat model predictions of extreme wave run-up in fringing reef environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lashley, Christopher H.; Roelvink, Dano; van Dongeren, Ap R.; Buckley, Mark L.; Lowe, Ryan J.

    2018-01-01

    The accurate prediction of extreme wave run-up is important for effective coastal engineering design and coastal hazard management. While run-up processes on open sandy coasts have been reasonably well-studied, very few studies have focused on understanding and predicting wave run-up at coral reef-fronted coastlines. This paper applies the short-wave resolving, Nonhydrostatic (XB-NH) and short-wave averaged, Surfbeat (XB-SB) modes of the XBeach numerical model to validate run-up using data from two 1D (alongshore uniform) fringing-reef profiles without roughness elements, with two objectives: i) to provide insight into the physical processes governing run-up in such environments; and ii) to evaluate the performance of both modes in accurately predicting run-up over a wide range of conditions. XBeach was calibrated by optimizing the maximum wave steepness parameter (maxbrsteep) in XB-NH and the dissipation coefficient (alpha) in XB-SB) using the first dataset; and then applied to the second dataset for validation. XB-NH and XB-SB predictions of extreme wave run-up (Rmax and R2%) and its components, infragravity- and sea-swell band swash (SIG and SSS) and shoreline setup (), were compared to observations. XB-NH more accurately simulated wave transformation but under-predicted shoreline setup due to its exclusion of parameterized wave-roller dynamics. XB-SB under-predicted sea-swell band swash but overestimated shoreline setup due to an over-prediction of wave heights on the reef flat. Run-up (swash) spectra were dominated by infragravity motions, allowing the short-wave (but not wave group) averaged model (XB-SB) to perform comparably well to its more complete, short-wave resolving (XB-NH) counterpart. Despite their respective limitations, both modes were able to accurately predict Rmax and R2%.

  8. Modeling the contributions of emission, meteorology, and chemistry to high PM2.5 levels over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Zhang, Q.; Jia, B.; Jiang, J.; Zhou, W.; Wang, B.

    2014-12-01

    PM2.5 is known to harm health and public welfare. In recent years, regional haze with PM2.5 levels exceeding ten folds of WHO's air quality guideline has become the largest air quality concern in China. To better protect the health of millions of people, the key question is whether we understand the formation mechanism of high PM2.5 episodes well enough to guide the formation of effective control strategies. Here we present a modeling analysis in conjunction of observational constraints to estimate the contribution of emissions, meteorology, and secondary chemical formation to changes in PM2.5 levels over China. Certain meteorological conditions are found particularly conducive to trigger fast increases of secondary PM under current emissions mixtures in China. While the nested-grid GEOS-Chem model reproduces the distribution of PM2.5 and simulates up to ~400 μg/m3 of daily maximum PM2.5, it fails to capture the large sulfate enhancement during haze. We propose heterogeneous oxidation of SO2 on deliquesced aerosols as an additional source of sulfate under high relative humidity conditions. Parameterizing this process in the model improves the simulated spatial distribution and results in significant increases of sulfate enhancement ratio and sulfate fraction in PM2.5 during haze episodes. Implications of our modeling analysis for PM2.5 pollution control policies will also be discussed.

  9. CROP YIELD AND CO2 FIXATION MONITORING IN ASIA USING A PHOTOSYNTHETICSTERILITY MODEL WITH SATELLITES AND METEOROLOGICAL DATA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daijiro Kaneko [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Matsue National College of Technology, Matsue (Japan); Toshiro Kumakura [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nagaoka University of Technology, Nagaoka (Japan); Peng Yang [Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing and Digital Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing (China)

    2008-09-30

    This study is intended to develop a model for estimating carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) fixation in the carbon cycle and for monitoring grain yields using a photosynthetic-sterility model, which integrates solar radiation and air temperature effects on photosynthesis, along with grain-filling from heading to ripening. Grain production monitoring would support orderly crisis management to maintain food security in Asia, which is facing climate fluctuation through this century of global warming. The author improved a photosynthesis-and-sterility model to compute both the crop yield and crop situation index CSI, which gives a percentage of rice yields compared to normal annual production. The model calculates photosynthesis rates including biomass effects, lowtemperature sterility, and high-temperature injury by incorporating solar radiation, effective air temperature, the normalized difference vegetation index NDVI, and the effect of temperature on photosynthesis by grain plant leaves. A decision-tree method classifies the distribution of crop fields in Asia using MODIS fundamental landcover and SPOT VEGETATION data, which include the Normalized Vegetation index (NDVI) and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI). This study provides daily distributions of the photosynthesis rate, which is the CO2 fixation in Asian areas combined with the land-cover distribution, the Japanese geostationary meteorological satellite (GMS), and meteorological re-analysis data by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The method is based on routine observation data, enabling automated monitoring of crop yields.

  10. Reduction of thermal models of buildings: improvement of techniques using meteorological influence models; Reduction de modeles thermiques de batiments: amelioration des techniques par modelisation des sollicitations meteorologiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dautin, S.

    1997-04-01

    This work concerns the modeling of thermal phenomena inside buildings for the evaluation of energy exploitation costs of thermal installations and for the modeling of thermal and aeraulic transient phenomena. This thesis comprises 7 chapters dealing with: (1) the thermal phenomena inside buildings and the CLIM2000 calculation code, (2) the ETNA and GENEC experimental cells and their modeling, (3) the techniques of model reduction tested (Marshall`s truncature, Michailesco aggregation method and Moore truncature) with their algorithms and their encoding in the MATRED software, (4) the application of model reduction methods to the GENEC and ETNA cells and to a medium size dual-zone building, (5) the modeling of meteorological influences classically applied to buildings (external temperature and solar flux), (6) the analytical expression of these modeled meteorological influences. The last chapter presents the results of these improved methods on the GENEC and ETNA cells and on a lower inertia building. These new methods are compared to classical methods. (J.S.) 69 refs.

  11. Modeling monthly meteorological and agronomic frost days, based on minimum air temperature, in Center-Southern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvares, Clayton Alcarde; Sentelhas, Paulo César; Stape, José Luiz

    2017-09-01

    Although Brazil is predominantly a tropical country, frosts are observed with relative high frequency in the Center-Southern states of the country, affecting mainly agriculture, forestry, and human activities. Therefore, information about the frost climatology is of high importance for planning of these activities. Based on that, the aims of the present study were to develop monthly meteorological (F MET) and agronomic (F AGR) frost day models, based on minimum shelter air temperature (T MN), in order to characterize the temporal and spatial frost days variability in Center-Southern Brazil. Daily minimum air temperature data from 244 weather stations distributed across the study area were used, being 195 for developing the models and 49 for validating them. Multivariate regression models were obtained to estimate the monthly T MN, once the frost day models were based on this variable. All T MN regression models were statistically significant (p Brazilian region are the first zoning of these variables for the country.

  12. Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauman, William; Crawford, Winifred; Barrett, Joe; Watson, Leela; Wheeler, Mark

    2010-01-01

    This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) activities for the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2010 (October - December 2009). A detailed project schedule is included in the Appendix. Included tasks are: (1) Peak Wind Tool for User Launch Commit Criteria (LCC), (2) Objective Lightning Probability Tool, Phase III, (3) Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting, Phase II, (4) Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool in Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS), (5) Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) Update and Maintainability, (5) Verify 12-km resolution North American Model (MesoNAM) Performance, and (5) Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) Graphical User Interface.

  13. NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Local Model Runs in the Environmental Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Carcione, Brian; Wood, Lance; Maloney, Joseph; Estupinan, Jeral; Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Blottman, Peter; Rozumalski, Robert A.

    2011-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed several products for its National Weather Service (NWS) partners that can be used to initialize local model runs within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Environmental Modeling System (EMS). These real-time datasets consist of surface-based information updated at least once per day, and produced in a composite or gridded product that is easily incorporated into the WRF EMS. The primary goal for making these NASA datasets available to the WRF EMS community is to provide timely and high-quality information at a spatial resolution comparable to that used in the local model configurations (i.e., convection-allowing scales). The current suite of SPoRT products supported in the WRF EMS include a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) composite, a Great Lakes sea-ice extent, a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composite, and Land Information System (LIS) gridded output. The SPoRT SST composite is a blend of primarily the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) infrared and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System data for non-precipitation coverage over the oceans at 2-km resolution. The composite includes a special lake surface temperature analysis over the Great Lakes using contributions from the Remote Sensing Systems temperature data. The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Ice Percentage product is used to create a sea-ice mask in the SPoRT SST composite. The sea-ice mask is produced daily (in-season) at 1.8-km resolution and identifies ice percentage from 0 100% in 10% increments, with values above 90% flagged as ice.

  14. PREDICTIONS OF DISPERSION AND DEPOSITION OF FALLOUT FROM NUCLEAR TESTING USING THE NOAA-HYSPLIT METEOROLOGICAL MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moroz, Brian E.; Beck, Harold L.; Bouville, André; Simon, Steven L.

    2013-01-01

    The NOAA Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) was evaluated as a research tool to simulate the dispersion and deposition of radioactive fallout from nuclear tests. Model-based estimates of fallout can be valuable for use in the reconstruction of past exposures from nuclear testing, particularly, where little historical fallout monitoring data is available. The ability to make reliable predictions about fallout deposition could also have significant importance for nuclear events in the future. We evaluated the accuracy of the HYSPLIT-predicted geographic patterns of deposition by comparing those predictions against known deposition patterns following specific nuclear tests with an emphasis on nuclear weapons tests conducted in the Marshall Islands. We evaluated the ability of the computer code to quantitatively predict the proportion of fallout particles of specific sizes deposited at specific locations as well as their time of transport. In our simulations of fallout from past nuclear tests, historical meteorological data were used from a reanalysis conducted jointly by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We used a systematic approach in testing the HYSPLIT model by simulating the release of a range of particles sizes from a range of altitudes and evaluating the number and location of particles deposited. Our findings suggest that the quantity and quality of meteorological data are the most important factors for accurate fallout predictions and that when satisfactory meteorological input data are used, HYSPLIT can produce relatively accurate deposition patterns and fallout arrival times. Furthermore, when no other measurement data are available, HYSPLIT can be used to indicate whether or not fallout might have occurred at a given location and provide, at minimum, crude quantitative estimates of the magnitude of the deposited activity. A variety of

  15. Capitalizing on Citizen Science Data for Validating Models and Generating Hypotheses Describing Meteorological Drivers of Mosquito-Borne Disease Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Paull, S.; Anyamba, A.; Soebiyanto, R. P.

    2017-12-01

    Temperature and precipitation are important drivers of mosquito population dynamics, and a growing set of models have been proposed to characterize these relationships. Validation of these models, and development of broader theories across mosquito species and regions could nonetheless be improved by comparing observations from a global dataset of mosquito larvae with satellite-based measurements of meteorological variables. Citizen science data can be particularly useful for two such aspects of research into the meteorological drivers of mosquito populations: i) Broad-scale validation of mosquito distribution models and ii) Generation of quantitative hypotheses regarding changes to mosquito abundance and phenology across scales. The recently released GLOBE Observer Mosquito Habitat Mapper (GO-MHM) app engages citizen scientists in identifying vector taxa, mapping breeding sites and decommissioning non-natural habitats, and provides a potentially useful new tool for validating mosquito ubiquity projections based on the analysis of remotely sensed environmental data. Our early work with GO-MHM data focuses on two objectives: validating citizen science reports of Aedes aegypti distribution through comparison with accepted scientific data sources, and exploring the relationship between extreme temperature and precipitation events and subsequent observations of mosquito larvae. Ultimately the goal is to develop testable hypotheses regarding the shape and character of this relationship between mosquito species and regions.

  16. The long-run forecasting of energy prices using the model of shifting trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radchenko, Stanislav

    2005-01-01

    Developing models for accurate long-term energy price forecasting is an important problem because these forecasts should be useful in determining both supply and demand of energy. On the supply side, long-term forecasts determine investment decisions of energy-related companies. On the demand side, investments in physical capital and durable goods depend on price forecasts of a particular energy type. Forecasting long-run rend movements in energy prices is very important on the macroeconomic level for several developing countries because energy prices have large impacts on their real output, the balance of payments, fiscal policy, etc. Pindyck (1999) argues that the dynamics of real energy prices is mean-reverting to trend lines with slopes and levels that are shifting unpredictably over time. The hypothesis of shifting long-term trend lines was statistically tested by Benard et al. (2004). The authors find statistically significant instabilities for coal and natural gas prices. I continue the research of energy prices in the framework of continuously shifting levels and slopes of trend lines started by Pindyck (1999). The examined model offers both parsimonious approach and perspective on the developments in energy markets. Using the model of depletable resource production, Pindyck (1999) argued that the forecast of energy prices in the model is based on the long-run total marginal cost. Because the model of a shifting trend is based on the competitive behavior, one may examine deviations of oil producers from the competitive behavior by studying the difference between actual prices and long-term forecasts. To construct the long-run forecasts (10-year-ahead and 15-year-ahead) of energy prices, I modify the univariate shifting trends model of Pindyck (1999). I relax some assumptions on model parameters, the assumption of white noise error term, and propose a new Bayesian approach utilizing a Gibbs sampling algorithm to estimate the model with autocorrelation. To

  17. Exploring the Utility of Model-based Meteorology Data for Heat-Related Health Research and Surveillance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaidyanathan, A.; Yip, F.

    2017-12-01

    Context: Studies that have explored the impacts of environmental exposure on human health have mostly relied on data from weather stations, which can be limited in geographic scope. For this assessment, we: (1) evaluated the performance of the meteorological data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS) model with measurements from weather stations for public health and specifically for CDC's Environmental Public Health Tracking Program, and (2) conducted a health assessment to explore the relationship between heat exposure and mortality, and examined region-specific differences in heat-mortality (H-M) relationships when using model-based estimates in place of measurements from weather stations.Methods: Meteorological data from the NLDAS Phase 2 model was evaluated against measurements from weather stations. A time-series analysis was conducted, using both station- and model-based data, to generate H-M relationships for counties in the U.S. The county-specific risk information was pooled to characterize regional relationships for both station- and model-based data, which were then compared to identify degrees of overlap and discrepancies between results generated using the two data sources. Results: NLDAS-based heat metrics were in agreement with those generated using weather station data. In general, the H-M relationship tended to be non-linear and varied by region, particularly the heat index value at which the health risks become positively significant. However, there was a high degree of overlap between region-specific H-M relationships generated from weather stations and the NLDAS model.Interpretation: Heat metrics from NLDAS model are available for all counties in the coterminous U.S. from 1979-2015. These data can facilitate health research and surveillance activities exploring health impacts associated with long-term heat exposures at finer geographic scales.Conclusion: High spatiotemporal coverage of environmental health data

  18. Constraints on running vacuum model with H ( z ) and f σ{sub 8}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geng, Chao-Qiang [Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, 400065 (China); Lee, Chung-Chi [DAMTP, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA (United Kingdom); Yin, Lu, E-mail: geng@phys.nthu.edu.tw, E-mail: lee.chungchi16@gmail.com, E-mail: yinlumail@foxmail.com [Department of Physics, National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, 300 Taiwan (China)

    2017-08-01

    We examine the running vacuum model with Λ ( H ) = 3 ν H {sup 2} + Λ{sub 0}, where ν is the model parameter and Λ{sub 0} is the cosmological constant. From the data of the cosmic microwave background radiation, weak lensing and baryon acoustic oscillation along with the time dependent Hubble parameter H ( z ) and weighted linear growth f ( z )σ{sub 8}( z ) measurements, we find that ν=(1.37{sup +0.72}{sub −0.95})× 10{sup −4} with the best fitted χ{sup 2} value slightly smaller than that in the ΛCDM model.

  19. Daily river flow prediction based on Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy Systems Modeling: A case of hydrological - meteorological measurements asymmetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bou-Fakhreddine, Bassam; Mougharbel, Imad; Faye, Alain; Abou Chakra, Sara; Pollet, Yann

    2018-03-01

    Accurate daily river flow forecast is essential in many applications of water resources such as hydropower operation, agricultural planning and flood control. This paper presents a forecasting approach to deal with a newly addressed situation where hydrological data exist for a period longer than that of meteorological data (measurements asymmetry). In fact, one of the potential solutions to resolve measurements asymmetry issue is data re-sampling. It is a matter of either considering only the hydrological data or the balanced part of the hydro-meteorological data set during the forecasting process. However, the main disadvantage is that we may lose potentially relevant information from the left-out data. In this research, the key output is a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy inference hybrid model that is implemented over the non re-sampled data. The introduced modeling approach must be capable of exploiting the available data efficiently with higher prediction efficiency relative to Constructive Fuzzy model trained over re-sampled data set. The study was applied to Litani River in the Bekaa Valley - Lebanon by using 4 years of rainfall and 24 years of river flow daily measurements. A Constructive Fuzzy System Model (C-FSM) and a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy System Model (TPC-FSM) are trained. Upon validating, the second model has shown a primarily competitive performance and accuracy with the ability to preserve a higher day-to-day variability for 1, 3 and 6 days ahead. In fact, for the longest lead period, the C-FSM and TPC-FSM were able of explaining respectively 84.6% and 86.5% of the actual river flow variation. Overall, the results indicate that TPC-FSM model has provided a better tool to capture extreme flows in the process of streamflow prediction.

  20. Effects of Yaw Error on Wind Turbine Running Characteristics Based on the Equivalent Wind Speed Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuting Wan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Natural wind is stochastic, being characterized by its speed and direction which change randomly and frequently. Because of the certain lag in control systems and the yaw body itself, wind turbines cannot be accurately aligned toward the wind direction when the wind speed and wind direction change frequently. Thus, wind turbines often suffer from a series of engineering issues during operation, including frequent yaw, vibration overruns and downtime. This paper aims to study the effects of yaw error on wind turbine running characteristics at different wind speeds and control stages by establishing a wind turbine model, yaw error model and the equivalent wind speed model that includes the wind shear and tower shadow effects. Formulas for the relevant effect coefficients Tc, Sc and Pc were derived. The simulation results indicate that the effects of the aerodynamic torque, rotor speed and power output due to yaw error at different running stages are different and that the effect rules for each coefficient are not identical when the yaw error varies. These results may provide theoretical support for optimizing the yaw control strategies for each stage to increase the running stability of wind turbines and the utilization rate of wind energy.

  1. Meso- and Micro-scale Modelling in China: Wind atlas analysis for 12 meteorological stations in NE China (Dongbei)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Gylling; Yang, Z.; Hansen, Jens Carsten

    As part of the “Meso-Scale and Micro-Scale Modelling in China” project, also known as the CMA component of the Sino-Danish Wind Energy Development Programme (WED), microscale modelling and analyses have been carried out for 12 meteorological stations in NE China. Wind speed and direction data from...... the twelve 70-m masts have been analysed using the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP 10). The wind-climatological inputs are the observed wind climates derived from the WAsP Climate Analyst. Topographical inputs are elevation maps constructed from SRTM 3 data and roughness length maps...... constructed from Google Earth satellite imagery. The maps have been compared to Chinese topographical maps and adjusted accordingly. Summaries are given of the data measured at the 12 masts for the reference period 2009. The main result of the microscale modelling is an observational wind atlas for NE China...

  2. A comparative study of the response of modeled non-drizzling stratocumulus to meteorological and aerosol perturbations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Petters

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The impact of changes in aerosol and cloud droplet concentration (Na and Nd on the radiative forcing of stratocumulus-topped boundary layers (STBLs has been widely studied. How these impacts compare to those due to variations in meteorological context has not been investigated in a systematic fashion for non-drizzling overcast stratocumulus. In this study we examine the impact of observed variations in meteorological context and aerosol state on daytime, non-drizzling overcast stratiform evolution, and determine how resulting changes in cloud properties compare. Using large-eddy simulation (LES we create a model base case of daytime southeast Pacific coastal stratocumulus, spanning a portion of the diurnal cycle (early morning to near noon and constrained by observations taken during the VOCALS (VAMOS Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Study field campaign. We perturb aerosol and meteorological properties around this base case to investigate the stratocumulus response. We determine perturbations in the cloud top jumps in potential temperature θ and total water mixing ratio qt from ECMWF Re-analysis Interim data, and use a set of Nd values spanning the observable range. To determine the cloud response to these meteorological and aerosol perturbations, we compute changes in liquid water path (LWP, bulk optical depth (τ and cloud radiative forcing (CRF. We find that realistic variations in the thermodynamic jump properties can elicit a response in the cloud properties of τ and shortwave (SW CRF that are on the same order of magnitude as the response found due to realistic changes in aerosol state (i.e Nd. In response to increases in Nd, the cloud layer in the base case thinned due to increases in evaporative cooling and entrainment rate. This cloud thinning somewhat mitigates the increase in τ resulting from increases in Nd. On the other hand, variations in θ and qt jumps did not substantially modify Nd. The cloud layer thickens in response to an increase

  3. Running scenarios using the Waste Tank Safety and Operations Hanford Site model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stahlman, E.J.

    1995-11-01

    Management of the Waste Tank Safety and Operations (WTS ampersand O) at Hanford is a large and complex task encompassing 177 tanks and having a budget of over $500 million per year. To assist managers in this task, a model based on system dynamics was developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The model simulates the WTS ampersand O at the Hanford Tank Farms by modeling the planning, control, and flow of work conducted by Managers, Engineers, and Crafts. The model is described in Policy Analysis of Hanford Tank Farm Operations with System Dynamics Approach (Kwak 1995b) and Management Simulator for Hanford Tank Farm Operations (Kwak 1995a). This document provides guidance for users of the model in developing, running, and analyzing results of management scenarios. The reader is assumed to have an understanding of the model and its operation. Important parameters and variables in the model are described, and two scenarios are formulated as examples

  4. Meteorological conditions associated to high sublimation amounts in semiarid high-elevation Andes decrease the performance of empirical melt models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayala, Alvaro; Pellicciotti, Francesca; MacDonell, Shelley; McPhee, James; Burlando, Paolo

    2015-04-01

    Empirical melt (EM) models are often preferred to surface energy balance (SEB) models to calculate melt amounts of snow and ice in hydrological modelling of high-elevation catchments. The most common reasons to support this decision are that, in comparison to SEB models, EM models require lower levels of meteorological data, complexity and computational costs. However, EM models assume that melt can be characterized by means of a few index variables only, and their results strongly depend on the transferability in space and time of the calibrated empirical parameters. In addition, they are intrinsically limited in accounting for specific process components, the complexity of which cannot be easily reconciled with the empirical nature of the model. As an example of an EM model, in this study we use the Enhanced Temperature Index (ETI) model, which calculates melt amounts using air temperature and the shortwave radiation balance as index variables. We evaluate the performance of the ETI model on dry high-elevation sites where sublimation amounts - that are not explicitly accounted for the EM model - represent a relevant percentage of total ablation (1.1 to 8.7%). We analyse a data set of four Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), which were collected during the ablation season 2013-14, at elevations between 3466 and 4775 m asl, on the glaciers El Tapado, San Francisco, Bello and El Yeso, which are located in the semiarid Andes of central Chile. We complement our analysis using data from past studies in Juncal Norte Glacier (Chile) and Haut Glacier d'Arolla (Switzerland), during the ablation seasons 2008-09 and 2006, respectively. We use the results of a SEB model, applied to each study site, along the entire season, to calibrate the ETI model. The ETI model was not designed to calculate sublimation amounts, however, results show that their ability is low also to simulate melt amounts at sites where sublimation represents larger percentages of total ablation. In fact, we

  5. Exploiting CMS data popularity to model the evolution of data management for Run-2 and beyond

    CERN Document Server

    Bonacorsi, D; Giordano, D; Girone, M; Neri, M; Magini, N; Kuznetsov, V; Wildish, T

    2015-01-01

    During the LHC Run-1 data taking, all experiments collected large data volumes from proton-proton and heavy-ion collisions. The collisions data, together with massive volumes of simulated data, were replicated in multiple copies, transferred among various Tier levels, transformed/slimmed in format/content. These data were then accessed (both locally and remotely) by large groups of distributed analysis communities exploiting the WorldWide LHC Computing Grid infrastructure and services. While efficient data placement strategies - together with optimal data redistribution and deletions on demand - have become the core of static versus dynamic data management projects, little effort has so far been invested in understanding the detailed data-access patterns which surfaced in Run-1. These patterns, if understood, can be used as input to simulation of computing models at the LHC, to optimise existing systems by tuning their behaviour, and to explore next-generation CPU/storage/network co-scheduling solutions. This...

  6. Green River air quality model development: meteorological and tracer data, July/August 1982 field study in Brush Valley, Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whiteman, C.D.; Lee, R.N.; Orgill, M.M.; Zak, B.D.

    1984-06-01

    Meteorological and atmospheric tracer studies were conducted during a 3-week period in July and August of 1982 in the Brush Creek Valley of northwestern Colorado. The objective of the field experiments was to obtain data to evaluate a model, called VALMET, developed at PNL to predict dispersion of air pollutants released from an elevated stack located within a deep mountain valley in the post-sunrise temperature inversion breakup period. Three tracer experiments were conducted in the valley during the 2-week period. In these experiments, sulfur hexafluoride (SF/sub 6/) was released from a height of approximately 100 m, beginning before sunrise and continuing until the nocturnal down-valley winds reversed several hours after sunrise. Dispersion of the sulfur hexafluoride after release was evaluated by measuring SF/sub 6/ concentrations in ambient air samples taken from sampling devices operated within the valley up to about 8 km down valley from the source. An instrumented research aircraft was also used to measure concentrations in and above the valley. Tracer samples were collected using a network of radio-controlled bag sampling stations, two manually operated gas chromatographs, a continuous SF/sub 6/ monitor, and a vertical SF/sub 6/ profiler. In addition, basic meteorological data were collected during the tracer experiments. Frequent profiles of vertical wind and temperature structure were obtained with tethered balloons operated at the release site and at a site 7.7 km down the valley from the release site. 10 references, 63 figures, 50 tables.

  7. Radius stabilization and brane running in the Randall-Sundrum type 1 model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brevik, Iver; Ghoroku, Kazuo; Yahiro, Masanobu

    2004-01-01

    We study the effective potential of a scalar field based on the 5D gauged supergravity for the Randall-Sundrum type one brane model in terms of the brane running method. The scalar couples to the brane such that the Bogomolnyi-Prasad-Sommerfield conditions are satisfied for the bulk configuration. The resulting effective potential implies that the interbrane distance is undetermined in this case, and we need a small Bogomolnyi-Prasad-Sommerfield breaking term on the brane to stabilize the interbrane distance at a finite length. We also discuss the relationship to the Goldberger-Wise model

  8. Meteorological instrumentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-06-01

    RFS or ''Regles Fondamentales de Surete'' (Basic Safety Rules) applicable to certain types of nuclear facilities lay down requirements with which compliance, for the type of facilities and within the scope of application covered by the RFS, is considered to be equivalent to compliance with technical French regulatory practice. The object of the RFS is to take advantage of standardization in the field of safety , while allowing for technical progress in that field. They are designed to enable the operating utility and contractors to know the rules pertaining to various subjects which are considered to be acceptable by the ''Service Central de Surete des Installations Nucleaires'' or the SCSIN (Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Facilities). These RFS should make safety analysis easier and lead to better understanding between experts and individuals concerned with the problems of nuclear safety. The SCSIN reserves the right to modify, when considered necessary any RFS and specify, if need be, the terms under which a modification is deemed retroactive. The purpose of this RFS is to specify the meteorological instrumentation required at the site of each nuclear power plant equipped with at least one pressurized water reactor

  9. Use of midlatitude soil moisture and meteorological observations to validate soil moisture simulations with biosphere and bucket models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, Alan; Vinnikov, Konstantin YA.; Schlosser, C. Adam; Speranskaya, Nina A.; Xue, Yongkang

    1995-01-01

    Soil moisture observations in sites with natural vegetation were made for several decades in the former Soviet Union at hundreds of stations. In this paper, the authors use data from six of these stations from different climatic regimes, along with ancillary meteorological and actinometric data, to demonstrate a method to validate soil moisture simulations with biosphere and bucket models. Some early and current general circulation models (GCMs) use bucket models for soil hydrology calculations. More recently, the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB) was developed to incorporate the effects of vegetation on fluxes of moisture, momentum, and energy at the earth's surface into soil hydrology models. Until now, the bucket and SiB have been verified by comparison with actual soil moisture data only on a limited basis. In this study, a Simplified SiB (SSiB) soil hydrology model and a 15-cm bucket model are forced by observed meteorological and actinometric data every 3 h for 6-yr simulations at the six stations. The model calculations of soil moisture are compared to observations of soil moisture, literally 'ground truth,' snow cover, surface albedo, and net radiation, and with each other. For three of the stations, the SSiB and 15-cm bucket models produce good simulations of seasonal cycles and interannual variations of soil moisture. For the other three stations, there are large errors in the simulations by both models. Inconsistencies in specification of field capacity may be partly responsible. There is no evidence that the SSiB simulations are superior in simulating soil moisture variations. In fact, the models are quite similar since SSiB implicitly has a bucket embedded in it. One of the main differences between the models is in the treatment of runoff due to melting snow in the spring -- SSiB incorrectly puts all the snowmelt into runoff. While producing similar soil moisture simulations, the models produce very different surface latent and sensible heat fluxes, which

  10. Impact of inherent meteorology uncertainty on air quality ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    It is well established that there are a number of different classifications and sources of uncertainties in environmental modeling systems. Air quality models rely on two key inputs, namely, meteorology and emissions. When using air quality models for decision making, it is important to understand how uncertainties in these inputs affect the simulated concentrations. Ensembles are one method to explore how uncertainty in meteorology affects air pollution concentrations. Most studies explore this uncertainty by running different meteorological models or the same model with different physics options and in some cases combinations of different meteorological and air quality models. While these have been shown to be useful techniques in some cases, we present a technique that leverages the initial condition perturbations of a weather forecast ensemble, namely, the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system to drive the four-dimensional data assimilation in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with a key focus being the response of ozone chemistry and transport. Results confirm that a sizable spread in WRF solutions, including common weather variables of temperature, wind, boundary layer depth, clouds, and radiation, can cause a relatively large range of ozone-mixing ratios. Pollutant transport can be altered by hundreds of kilometers over several days. Ozone-mixing ratios of the ensemble can vary as much as 10–20 ppb

  11. Predictions of dispersion and deposition of fallout from nuclear testing using the NOAA-HYSPLIT meteorological model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moroz, Brian E; Beck, Harold L; Bouville, André; Simon, Steven L

    2010-08-01

    The NOAA Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) was evaluated as a research tool to simulate the dispersion and deposition of radioactive fallout from nuclear tests. Model-based estimates of fallout can be valuable for use in the reconstruction of past exposures from nuclear testing, particularly where little historical fallout monitoring data are available. The ability to make reliable predictions about fallout deposition could also have significant importance for nuclear events in the future. We evaluated the accuracy of the HYSPLIT-predicted geographic patterns of deposition by comparing those predictions against known deposition patterns following specific nuclear tests with an emphasis on nuclear weapons tests conducted in the Marshall Islands. We evaluated the ability of the computer code to quantitatively predict the proportion of fallout particles of specific sizes deposited at specific locations as well as their time of transport. In our simulations of fallout from past nuclear tests, historical meteorological data were used from a reanalysis conducted jointly by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We used a systematic approach in testing the HYSPLIT model by simulating the release of a range of particle sizes from a range of altitudes and evaluating the number and location of particles deposited. Our findings suggest that the quantity and quality of meteorological data are the most important factors for accurate fallout predictions and that, when satisfactory meteorological input data are used, HYSPLIT can produce relatively accurate deposition patterns and fallout arrival times. Furthermore, when no other measurement data are available, HYSPLIT can be used to indicate whether or not fallout might have occurred at a given location and provide, at minimum, crude quantitative estimates of the magnitude of the deposited activity. A variety of

  12. Spontaneous appetence for wheel-running: a model of dependency on physical activity in rat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Anthony; Lamarque, Stéphanie; Boyer, Patrice; Perez-Diaz, Fernando; Jouvent, Roland; Cohen-Salmon, Charles

    2006-12-01

    According to human observations of a syndrome of physical activity dependence and its consequences, we tried to examine if running activity in a free activity paradigm, where rats had a free access to activity wheel, may present a valuable animal model for physical activity dependence and most generally to behavioral dependence. The pertinence of reactivity to novelty, a well-known pharmacological dependence predictor was also tested. Given the close linkage observed in human between physical activity and drugs use and abuse, the influence of free activity in activity wheels on reactivity to amphetamine injection and reactivity to novelty were also assessed. It appeared that (1) free access to wheel may be used as a valuable model for physical activity addiction, (2) two populations differing in activity amount also differed in dependence to wheel-running. (3) Reactivity to novelty did not appeared as a predictive factor for physical activity dependence (4) activity modified novelty reactivity and (5) subjects who exhibited a high appetence to wheel-running, presented a strong reactivity to amphetamine. These results propose a model of dependency on physical activity without any pharmacological intervention, and demonstrate the existence of individual differences in the development of this addiction. In addition, these data highlight the development of a likely vulnerability to pharmacological addiction after intense and sustained physical activity, as also described in man. This model could therefore prove pertinent for studying behavioral dependencies and the underlying neurobiological mechanisms. These results may influence the way psychiatrists view behavioral dependencies and phenomena such as doping in sport or addiction to sport itself.

  13. Airline meteorological requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler, C. L.; Pappas, J.

    1985-01-01

    A brief review of airline meteorological/flight planning is presented. The effects of variations in meteorological parameters upon flight and operational costs are reviewed. Flight path planning through the use of meteorological information is briefly discussed.

  14. Design and Development of a Model to Simulate 0-G Treadmill Running Using the European Space Agency's Subject Loading System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, E. C.; Cowley, M. S.; Scott-Pandorf, M. M.

    2010-01-01

    Develop a model that simulates a human running in 0 G using the European Space Agency s (ESA) Subject Loading System (SLS). The model provides ground reaction forces (GRF) based on speed and pull-down forces (PDF). DESIGN The theoretical basis for the Running Model was based on a simple spring-mass model. The dynamic properties of the spring-mass model express theoretical vertical GRF (GRFv) and shear GRF in the posterior-anterior direction (GRFsh) during running gait. ADAMs VIEW software was used to build the model, which has a pelvis, thigh segment, shank segment, and a spring foot (see Figure 1).the model s movement simulates the joint kinematics of a human running at Earth gravity with the aim of generating GRF data. DEVELOPMENT & VERIFICATION ESA provided parabolic flight data of subjects running while using the SLS, for further characterization of the model s GRF. Peak GRF data were fit to a linear regression line dependent on PDF and speed. Interpolation and extrapolation of the regression equation provided a theoretical data matrix, which is used to drive the model s motion equations. Verification of the model was conducted by running the model at 4 different speeds, with each speed accounting for 3 different PDF. The model s GRF data fell within a 1-standard-deviation boundary derived from the empirical ESA data. CONCLUSION The Running Model aids in conducting various simulations (potential scenarios include a fatigued runner or a powerful runner generating high loads at a fast cadence) to determine limitations for the T2 vibration isolation system (VIS) aboard the International Space Station. This model can predict how running with the ESA SLS affects the T2 VIS and may be used for other exercise analyses in the future.

  15. Allometric scaling of body mass in running economy data: An important consideration in modeling marathon performance

    OpenAIRE

    Lundstrom, Christopher John; Biltz, George R.; Snyder, Eric M.; Ingraham, Stacy Jean

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare metabolic variables during submaximal running as predictors of marathon performance. Running economy (RE) and respiratory exchange ratio (RER) data were gathered during a 30 min incremental treadmill run completed within 2 weeks prior to running a 42.2-km marathon. Paces during the treadmill run progressed every 5 min from 75-100% of 10-km race velocity. Variables at each stage were analyzed as predictors of relative marathon performance (RMP) in compe...

  16. Debris flow analysis with a one dimensional dynamic run-out model that incorporates entrained material

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luna, Byron Quan; Remaître, Alexandre; van Asch, Theo; Malet, Jean-Philippe; van Westen, Cees

    2010-05-01

    Estimating the magnitude and the intensity of rapid landslides like debris flows is fundamental to evaluate quantitatively the hazard in a specific location. Intensity varies through the travelled course of the flow and can be described by physical features such as deposited volume, velocities, height of the flow, impact forces and pressures. Dynamic run-out models are able to characterize the distribution of the material, its intensity and define the zone where the elements will experience an impact. These models can provide valuable inputs for vulnerability and risk calculations. However, most dynamic run-out models assume a constant volume during the motion of the flow, ignoring the important role of material entrained along its path. Consequently, they neglect that the increase of volume enhances the mobility of the flow and can significantly influence the size of the potential impact area. An appropriate erosion mechanism needs to be established in the analyses of debris flows that will improve the results of dynamic modeling and consequently the quantitative evaluation of risk. The objective is to present and test a simple 1D debris flow model with a material entrainment concept based on limit equilibrium considerations and the generation of excess pore water pressure through undrained loading of the in situ bed material. The debris flow propagation model is based on a one dimensional finite difference solution of a depth-averaged form of the Navier-Stokes equations of fluid motions. The flow is treated as a laminar one phase material, which behavior is controlled by a visco-plastic Coulomb-Bingham rheology. The model parameters are evaluated and the model performance is tested on a debris flow event that occurred in 2003 in the Faucon torrent (Southern French Alps).

  17. Development of the Next Generation Air Quality Modeling System (20th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    A next generation air quality modeling system is being developed at the U.S. EPA to enable modeling of air quality from global to regional to (eventually) local scales. We envision that the system will have three configurations: 1. Global meteorology with seamless mesh refinemen...

  18. Space based inverse modeling of seasonal variations of anthropogenic and natural emissions of nitrogen oxides over China and effects of uncertainties in model meteorology and chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, J.

    2011-12-01

    Nitrogen oxides (NOx ≡ NO + NO2) are important atmospheric constituents affecting the tropospheric chemistry, surface air quality and climatic forcing. They are emitted both from anthropogenic and from natural (soil, lightning, biomass burning, etc.) sources, which can be estimated inversely from satellite remote sensing of the vertical column densities (VCDs) of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in the troposphere. Based on VCDs of NO2 retrieved from OMI, a novel approach is developed in this study to separate anthropogenic emissions of NOx from natural sources over East China for 2006. It exploits the fact that anthropogenic and natural emissions vary with seasons with distinctive patterns. The global chemical transport model (CTM) GEOS-Chem is used to establish the relationship between VCDs of NO2 and emissions of NOx for individual sources. Derived soil emissions are compared to results from a newly developed bottom-up approach. Effects of uncertainties in model meteorology and chemistry over China, an important source of errors in the emission inversion, are evaluated systematically for the first time. Meteorological measurements from space and the ground are used to analyze errors in meteorological parameters driving the CTM.

  19. Finite element modelling of Plantar Fascia response during running on different surface types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razak, A. H. A.; Basaruddin, K. S.; Salleh, A. F.; Rusli, W. M. R.; Hashim, M. S. M.; Daud, R.

    2017-10-01

    Plantar fascia is a ligament found in human foot structure located beneath the skin of human foot that functioning to stabilize longitudinal arch of human foot during standing and normal gait. To perform direct experiment on plantar fascia seems very difficult since the structure located underneath the soft tissue. The aim of this study is to develop a finite element (FE) model of foot with plantar fascia and investigate the effect of the surface hardness on biomechanical response of plantar fascia during running. The plantar fascia model was developed using Solidworks 2015 according to the bone structure of foot model that was obtained from Turbosquid database. Boundary conditions were set out based on the data obtained from experiment of ground reaction force response during running on different surface hardness. The finite element analysis was performed using Ansys 14. The results found that the peak of stress and strain distribution were occur on the insertion of plantar fascia to bone especially on calcaneal area. Plantar fascia became stiffer with increment of Young’s modulus value and was able to resist more loads. Strain of plantar fascia was decreased when Young’s modulus increased with the same amount of loading.

  20. The role of the Finnish Meteorological Institute

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savolainen, A.L.; Valkama, I.

    1993-01-01

    The Finnish Meteorological Institute is responsible for the dispersion forecasts for the radiation control in Finland. In addition to the normal weather forecasts the duty forecaster has the work station based three dimensional trajectory model and the short range dispersion model YDINO at his disposal. For expert use, dispersion and dose model TRADOS is available. The TRADOS, developed by the Finnish Meteorological Institute and by the Technical Research Centre of Finland, includes a meteorological data base that utilizes the numerical forecasts of the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) weather prediction model. The transport is described by three-dimensional air-parcel trajectories. For each time step the integrated air concentrations as well as dry and wet deposition for selected groups of radionuclides are computed. In the operational emergency application only external dose rates are computed. In the statistical version also individual and population dose estimates via several external and internal pathways can be made. The TRADOS is currently run under two separate user interfaces. The trajectory and dispersion model interface includes ready-made lists of the nuclear power plants and other installations. The dose model has a set of release terms for several groups of radionuclides. There is also a graphical module that enables the computed results to be presented in grid or also isolines. A new graphical user interface and presentation lay-outs redesigned as visual and end-user friendly as possible and with the aim of possible and with the aim of possible adoption as a Nordic standard will be installed in the near future. (orig.)

  1. Building and Running the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Model in a Quality Environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D.A. Kalinich; K.P. Lee; J.A. McNeish

    2005-01-01

    A Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) model has been developed to support the Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for the Yucca Mountain High-Level Waste Repository. The TSPA model forecasts repository performance over a 20,000-year simulation period. It has a high degree of complexity due to the complexity of its underlying process and abstraction models. This is reflected in the size of the model (a 27,000 element GoldSim file), its use of dynamic-linked libraries (14 DLLs), the number and size of its input files (659 files totaling 4.7 GB), and the number of model input parameters (2541 input database entries). TSPA model development and subsequent simulations with the final version of the model were performed to a set of Quality Assurance (QA) procedures. Due to the complexity of the model, comments on previous TSPAs, and the number of analysts involved (22 analysts in seven cities across four time zones), additional controls for the entire life-cycle of the TSPA model, including management, physical, model change, and input controls were developed and documented. These controls did not replace the QA. procedures, rather they provided guidance for implementing the requirements of the QA procedures with the specific intent of ensuring that the model development process and the simulations performed with the final version of the model had sufficient checking, traceability, and transparency. Management controls were developed to ensure that only management-approved changes were implemented into the TSPA model and that only management-approved model runs were performed. Physical controls were developed to track the use of prototype software and preliminary input files, and to ensure that only qualified software and inputs were used in the final version of the TSPA model. In addition, a system was developed to name, file, and track development versions of the TSPA model as well as simulations performed with the final version of the model

  2. Exploiting CMS data popularity to model the evolution of data management for Run-2 and beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonacorsi, D; Neri, M; Boccali, T; Giordano, D; Girone, M; Magini, N; Kuznetsov, V; Wildish, T

    2015-01-01

    During the LHC Run-1 data taking, all experiments collected large data volumes from proton-proton and heavy-ion collisions. The collisions data, together with massive volumes of simulated data, were replicated in multiple copies, transferred among various Tier levels, transformed/slimmed in format/content. These data were then accessed (both locally and remotely) by large groups of distributed analysis communities exploiting the WorldWide LHC Computing Grid infrastructure and services. While efficient data placement strategies - together with optimal data redistribution and deletions on demand - have become the core of static versus dynamic data management projects, little effort has so far been invested in understanding the detailed data-access patterns which surfaced in Run-1. These patterns, if understood, can be used as input to simulation of computing models at the LHC, to optimise existing systems by tuning their behaviour, and to explore next-generation CPU/storage/network co-scheduling solutions. This is of great importance, given that the scale of the computing problem will increase far faster than the resources available to the experiments, for Run-2 and beyond. Studying data-access patterns involves the validation of the quality of the monitoring data collected on the “popularity of each dataset, the analysis of the frequency and pattern of accesses to different datasets by analysis end-users, the exploration of different views of the popularity data (by physics activity, by region, by data type), the study of the evolution of Run-1 data exploitation over time, the evaluation of the impact of different data placement and distribution choices on the available network and storage resources and their impact on the computing operations. This work presents some insights from studies on the popularity data from the CMS experiment. We present the properties of a range of physics analysis activities as seen by the data popularity, and make recommendations for

  3. Exploiting CMS data popularity to model the evolution of data management for Run-2 and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonacorsi, D.; Boccali, T.; Giordano, D.; Girone, M.; Neri, M.; Magini, N.; Kuznetsov, V.; Wildish, T.

    2015-12-01

    During the LHC Run-1 data taking, all experiments collected large data volumes from proton-proton and heavy-ion collisions. The collisions data, together with massive volumes of simulated data, were replicated in multiple copies, transferred among various Tier levels, transformed/slimmed in format/content. These data were then accessed (both locally and remotely) by large groups of distributed analysis communities exploiting the WorldWide LHC Computing Grid infrastructure and services. While efficient data placement strategies - together with optimal data redistribution and deletions on demand - have become the core of static versus dynamic data management projects, little effort has so far been invested in understanding the detailed data-access patterns which surfaced in Run-1. These patterns, if understood, can be used as input to simulation of computing models at the LHC, to optimise existing systems by tuning their behaviour, and to explore next-generation CPU/storage/network co-scheduling solutions. This is of great importance, given that the scale of the computing problem will increase far faster than the resources available to the experiments, for Run-2 and beyond. Studying data-access patterns involves the validation of the quality of the monitoring data collected on the “popularity of each dataset, the analysis of the frequency and pattern of accesses to different datasets by analysis end-users, the exploration of different views of the popularity data (by physics activity, by region, by data type), the study of the evolution of Run-1 data exploitation over time, the evaluation of the impact of different data placement and distribution choices on the available network and storage resources and their impact on the computing operations. This work presents some insights from studies on the popularity data from the CMS experiment. We present the properties of a range of physics analysis activities as seen by the data popularity, and make recommendations for

  4. Near-Surface Meteorology During the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Evaluation of Reanalyses and Global Climate Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Boer, G.; Shupe, M.D.; Caldwell, P.M.; Bauer, Susanne E.; Persson, O.; Boyle, J.S.; Kelley, M.; Klein, S.A.; Tjernstrom, M.

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three atmospheric reanalyses (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)- Interim reanalysis, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, and NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis) and two global climate models (CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model 5) and NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large-scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms, are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, has demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the benefits gained by evaluating individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms that result in the best net energy budget.

  5. A spatiotemporal dengue fever early warning model accounting for nonlinear associations with meteorological factors: a Bayesian maximum entropy approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chien, Lung-Chang

    2014-05-01

    Dengue fever has been identified as one of the most widespread vector-borne diseases in tropical and sub-tropical. In the last decade, dengue is an emerging infectious disease epidemic in Taiwan especially in the southern area where have annually high incidences. For the purpose of disease prevention and control, an early warning system is urgently needed. Previous studies have showed significant relationships between climate variables, in particular, rainfall and temperature, and the temporal epidemic patterns of dengue cases. However, the transmission of the dengue fever is a complex interactive process that mostly understated the composite space-time effects of dengue fever. This study proposes developing a one-week ahead warning system of dengue fever epidemics in the southern Taiwan that considered nonlinear associations between weekly dengue cases and meteorological factors across space and time. The early warning system based on an integration of distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. The study identified the most significant meteorological measures including weekly minimum temperature and maximum 24-hour rainfall with continuous 15-week lagged time to dengue cases variation under condition of uncertainty. Subsequently, the combination of nonlinear lagged effects of climate variables and space-time dependence function is implemented via a Bayesian framework to predict dengue fever occurrences in the southern Taiwan during 2012. The result shows the early warning system is useful for providing potential outbreak spatio-temporal prediction of dengue fever distribution. In conclusion, the proposed approach can provide a practical disease control tool for environmental regulators seeking more effective strategies for dengue fever prevention.

  6. Debris flow run-out simulation and analysis using a dynamic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melo, Raquel; van Asch, Theo; Zêzere, José L.

    2018-02-01

    Only two months after a huge forest fire occurred in the upper part of a valley located in central Portugal, several debris flows were triggered by intense rainfall. The event caused infrastructural and economic damage, although no lives were lost. The present research aims to simulate the run-out of two debris flows that occurred during the event as well as to calculate via back-analysis the rheological parameters and the excess rain involved. Thus, a dynamic model was used, which integrates surface runoff, concentrated erosion along the channels, propagation and deposition of flow material. Afterwards, the model was validated using 32 debris flows triggered during the same event that were not considered for calibration. The rheological and entrainment parameters obtained for the most accurate simulation were then used to perform three scenarios of debris flow run-out on the basin scale. The results were confronted with the existing buildings exposed in the study area and the worst-case scenario showed a potential inundation that may affect 345 buildings. In addition, six streams where debris flow occurred in the past and caused material damage and loss of lives were identified.

  7. Drought Early Warning and Agro-Meteorological Risk Assessment using Earth Observation Rainfall Datasets and Crop Water Budget Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarnavsky, E.

    2016-12-01

    The water resources satisfaction index (WRSI) model is widely used in drought early warning and food security analyses, as well as in agro-meteorological risk management through weather index-based insurance. Key driving data for the model is provided from satellite-based rainfall estimates such as ARC2 and TAMSAT over Africa and CHIRPS globally. We evaluate the performance of these rainfall datasets for detecting onset and cessation of rainfall and estimating crop production conditions for the WRSI model. We also examine the sensitivity of the WRSI model to different satellite-based rainfall products over maize growing regions in Tanzania. Our study considers planting scenarios for short-, medium-, and long-growing cycle maize, and we apply these for 'regular' and drought-resistant maize, as well as with two different methods for defining the start of season (SOS). Simulated maize production estimates are compared against available reported production figures at the national and sub-national (province) levels. Strengths and weaknesses of the driving rainfall data, insights into the role of the SOS definition method, and phenology-based crop yield coefficient and crop yield reduction functions are discussed in the context of space-time drought characteristics. We propose a way forward for selecting skilled rainfall datasets and discuss their implication for crop production monitoring and the design and structure of weather index-based insurance products as risk transfer mechanisms implemented across scales for smallholder farmers to national programmes.

  8. Analysis of CO in the tropical troposphere using Aura satellite data and the GEOS-Chem model: insights into transport characteristics of the GEOS meteorological products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junhua Liu

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available We use the GEOS-Chem chemistry-transport model (CTM to interpret the spatial and temporal variations of tropical tropospheric CO observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS and the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES. In so doing, we diagnose and evaluate transport in the GEOS-4 and GEOS-5 assimilated meteorological fields that drive the model, with a particular focus on vertical mixing at the end of the dry season when convection moves over the source regions. The results indicate that over South America, deep convection in both GEOS-4 and GEOS-5 decays at too low an altitude early in the wet season, and the source of CO from isoprene in the model (MEGAN v2.1 is too large, causing a lag in the model's seasonal maximum of CO compared to MLS CO in the upper troposphere (UT. TES and MLS data reveal problems with excessive transport of CO to the eastern equatorial Pacific and lofting in the ITCZ in August and September, particularly in GEOS-4. Over southern Africa, GEOS-4 and GEOS-5 simulations match the phase of the observed CO variation from the lower troposphere (LT to the UT fairly well, although the magnitude of the seasonal maximum is underestimated considerably due to low emissions in the model. A sensitivity run with increased emissions leads to improved agreement with observed CO in the LT and middle troposphere (MT, but the amplitude of the seasonal variation is too high in the UT in GEOS-4. Difficulty in matching CO in the LT and UT implies there may be overly vigorous vertical mixing in GEOS-4 early in the wet season. Both simulations and observations show a time lag between the peak in fire emissions (July and August and in CO (September and October. We argue that it is caused by the prevailing subsidence in the LT until convection moves south in September, as well as the low sensitivity of TES data in the LT over the African Plateau. The MLS data suggest that too much CO has been transported from fires in northern Africa to the UT

  9. Mean atmospheric temperature model estimation for GNSS meteorology using AIRS and AMSU data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rata Suwantong

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the problem of modeling the relationship between the mean atmospheric and air surface temperatures is addressed. Particularly, the major goal is to estimate the model parameters at a regional scale in Thailand. To formulate the relationship between the mean atmospheric and air surface temperatures, a triply modulated cosine function was adopted to model the surface temperature as a periodic function. The surface temperature was then converted to mean atmospheric temperature using a linear function. The parameters of the model were estimated using an extended Kalman filter. Traditionally, radiosonde data is used. In this paper, satellite data from an atmospheric infrared sounder, and advanced microwave sounding unit sensors was used because it is open source data and has global coverage with high temporal resolution. The performance of the proposed model was tested against that of a global model via an accuracy assessment of the computed GNSS-derived PWV.

  10. The Trick Simulation Toolkit: A NASA/Opensource Framework for Running Time Based Physics Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penn, John M.

    2016-01-01

    The Trick Simulation Toolkit is a simulation development environment used to create high fidelity training and engineering simulations at the NASA Johnson Space Center and many other NASA facilities. Its purpose is to generate a simulation executable from a collection of user-supplied models and a simulation definition file. For each Trick-based simulation, Trick automatically provides job scheduling, numerical integration, the ability to write and restore human readable checkpoints, data recording, interactive variable manipulation, a run-time interpreter, and many other commonly needed capabilities. This allows simulation developers to concentrate on their domain expertise and the algorithms and equations of their models. Also included in Trick are tools for plotting recorded data and various other supporting utilities and libraries. Trick is written in C/C++ and Java and supports both Linux and MacOSX computer operating systems. This paper describes Trick's design and use at NASA Johnson Space Center.

  11. Minkowski space pion model inspired by lattice QCD running quark mass

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mello, Clayton S. [Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica, DCTA, 12.228-900 São José dos Campos, SP (Brazil); Melo, J.P.B.C. de [Laboratório de Física Teórica e Computacional – LFTC, Universidade Cruzeiro do Sul, 01506-000 São Paulo, SP (Brazil); Frederico, T., E-mail: tobias@ita.br [Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica, DCTA, 12.228-900 São José dos Campos, SP (Brazil)

    2017-03-10

    The pion structure in Minkowski space is described in terms of an analytic model of the Bethe–Salpeter amplitude combined with Euclidean Lattice QCD results. The model is physically motivated to take into account the running quark mass, which is fitted to Lattice QCD data. The pion pseudoscalar vertex is associated to the quark mass function, as dictated by dynamical chiral symmetry breaking requirements in the limit of vanishing current quark mass. The quark propagator is analyzed in terms of a spectral representation, and it shows a violation of the positivity constraints. The integral representation of the pion Bethe–Salpeter amplitude is also built. The pion space-like electromagnetic form factor is calculated with a quark electromagnetic current, which satisfies the Ward–Takahashi identity to ensure current conservation. The results for the form factor and weak decay constant are found to be consistent with the experimental data.

  12. Minkowski space pion model inspired by lattice QCD running quark mass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clayton S. Mello

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The pion structure in Minkowski space is described in terms of an analytic model of the Bethe–Salpeter amplitude combined with Euclidean Lattice QCD results. The model is physically motivated to take into account the running quark mass, which is fitted to Lattice QCD data. The pion pseudoscalar vertex is associated to the quark mass function, as dictated by dynamical chiral symmetry breaking requirements in the limit of vanishing current quark mass. The quark propagator is analyzed in terms of a spectral representation, and it shows a violation of the positivity constraints. The integral representation of the pion Bethe–Salpeter amplitude is also built. The pion space-like electromagnetic form factor is calculated with a quark electromagnetic current, which satisfies the Ward–Takahashi identity to ensure current conservation. The results for the form factor and weak decay constant are found to be consistent with the experimental data.

  13. Combining meteorological radar and network of rain gauges data for space–time model development

    OpenAIRE

    Pastoriza, Vicente; Núñez Fernández, Adolfo; Machado, Fernando; Mariño, Perfecto; Pérez Fontán, Fernando; Fiebig, Uwe-Carsten

    2009-01-01

    Technological developments and the trend to go higher and higher in frequency give rise to the need for true space–time rain field models for testing the dynamics of fade countermeasures. There are many models that capture the spatial correlation of rain fields. Worth mentioning are those models based on cell ensembles. However, the rain rate fields created in this way need the introduction of the time variable to reproduce their dynamics. In this paper, we have concentrated on ad...

  14. Seasonal modeling of hand, foot, and mouth disease as a function of meteorological variations in Chongqing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Pin; Zhao, Han; You, Fangxin; Zhou, Hailong; Goggins, William B.

    2017-08-01

    Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an enterovirus-induced infectious disease, mainly affecting children under 5 years old. Outbreaks of HFMD in recent years indicate the disease interacts with both the weather and season. This study aimed to investigate the seasonal association between HFMD and weather variation in Chongqing, China. Generalized additive models and distributed lag non-linear models based on a maximum lag of 14 days, with negative binomial distribution assumed to account for overdispersion, were constructed to model the association between reporting HFMD cases from 2009 to 2014 and daily mean temperature, relative humidity, total rainfall and sun duration, adjusting for trend, season, and day of the week. The year-round temperature and relative humidity, rainfall in summer, and sun duration in winter were all significantly associated with HFMD. An inverted-U relationship was found between mean temperature and HFMD above 19 °C in summer, with a maximum morbidity at 27 °C, while the risk increased linearly with the temperature in winter. A hockey-stick association was found for relative humidity in summer with increasing risks over 60%. Heavy rainfall, relative to no rain, was found to be associated with reduced HFMD risk in summer and 2 h of sunshine could decrease the risk by 21% in winter. The present study showed meteorological variables were differentially associated with HFMD incidence in two seasons. Short-term weather variation surveillance and forecasting could be employed as an early indicator for potential HFMD outbreaks.

  15. Smoke Dispersion Modeling Over Complex Terrain Using High-Resolution Meteorological Data and Satellite Observations: The FireHub Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomos, S.; Amiridis, V.; Zanis, P.; Gerasopoulos, E.; Sofiou, F. I.; Herekakis, T.; Brioude, J.; Stohl, A.; Kahn, R. A.; Kontoes, C.

    2015-01-01

    A total number of 20,212 fire hot spots were recorded by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite instrument over Greece during the period 2002e2013. The Fire Radiative Power (FRP) of these events ranged from 10 up to 6000 MW at 1 km resolution, and many of these fire episodes resulted in long-range transport of smoke over distances up to several hundred kilometers. Three different smoke episodes over Greece are analyzed here using real time hot-spot observations from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) satellite instrument as well as from MODIS hot-spots. Simulations of smoke dispersion are performed with the FLEXPART-WRF model and particulate matter emissions are calculated directly from the observed FRP. The modeled smoke plumes are compared with smoke stereo-heights from the Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) instrument and the sensitivities to atmospheric and modeling parameters are examined. Driving the simulations with high resolution meteorology (4 4 km) and using geostationary satellite data to identify the hot spots allows the description of local scale features that govern smoke dispersion. The long-range transport of smoke is found to be favored over the complex coastline environment of Greece due to the abrupt changes between land and marine planetary boundary layers (PBL) and the decoupling of smoke layers from the surface.

  16. Modelling of flexi-coil springs with rubber-metal pads in a locomotive running gear

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michálek T.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, flexi-coil springs are commonly used in the secondary suspension stage of railway vehicles. Lateral stiffness of these springs is influenced by means of their design parameters (number of coils, height, mean diameter of coils, wire diameter etc. and it is often suitable to modify this stiffness in such way, that the suspension shows various lateral stiffness in different directions (i.e., longitudinally vs. laterally in the vehicle-related coordinate system. Therefore, these springs are often supplemented with some kind of rubber-metal pads. This paper deals with modelling of the flexi-coil springs supplemented with tilting rubber-metal tilting pads applied in running gear of an electric locomotive as well as with consequences of application of that solution of the secondary suspension from the point of view of the vehicle running performance. This analysis is performed by means of multi-body simulations and the description of lateral stiffness characteristics of the springs is based on results of experimental measurements of these characteristics performed in heavy laboratories of the Jan Perner Transport Faculty of the University of Pardubice.

  17. Results of development and field tests of a radar-tracer system providing meteorological support to modeling hazardous technological releases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shershakov, V.M.; Zukov, G.P.; Kosykh, V.S.

    2003-01-01

    Full text: Radar support to systems of automated radiation monitoring requires dealing with determination of geometric characteristics of air release of radionuclides. For doing this, an air release can be labeled by chaff propagating in the air similarly to particles of radioactive substance. Then, a chaff suspension can be treated as a spatially distributed radar target and thus be detected by a radar. For a number of years the Science and Production Association 'Typhoon' of Roshydromet, Obninsk has been developing a radar tracer system (RTS) for meteorological support of modeling hazardous technological releases. In September -December 2002 experiments were conducted to test the RTS in field. This presentation contains preliminary results of testing this system. A total of 9 experiments pursuing different goals were carried out. Of them 6 experiments were conducted approximately 6 km south-west of Obninsk in the vicinity of the village of Potresovo. The first three experiments were aimed at working out interaction between the MR and LDU and assessing the chaff cloud observation distance. In doing this, radar information was not transmitted from the MR to the CCS. In the last three experiments radar information was transmitted to the CCS by cell communication lines using telephones Siemens S35 with in-built modems. The CCS was deployed in building 4/25 of SPA 'Typhoon'. All information received in the CCS was put an a map. Three experiments were conducted in the area of the Kursk NPP as part of preparations for training exercises near the village of Makarovka about 7 km north-west of the city of Kurchatov. In the first two experiments radar information from the MR was passed by cell communication channels to the CCS deployed in the laboratory of external radiation monitoring of the Kursk nuclear power plant. Experiment 3 was a demonstration and arranged during the emergency response exercises at the Kursk NPP. The MR was based on the site of the external

  18. Introducing Subrid-scale Cloud Feedbacks to Radiation for Regional Meteorological and Cllimate Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convection systems and associated cloudiness directly influence regional and local radiation budgets, and dynamics and thermodynamics through feedbacks. However, most subgrid-scale convective parameterizations in regional weather and climate models do not consider cumulus cloud ...

  19. Combination of Deterministic and Probabilistic Meteorological Models to enhance Wind Farm Power Forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bremen, Lueder von

    2007-01-01

    Large-scale wind farms will play an important role in the future worldwide energy supply. However, with increasing wind power penetration all stakeholders on the electricity market will ask for more skilful wind power predictions regarding save grid integration and to increase the economic value of wind power. A Neural Network is used to calculate Model Output Statistics (MOS) for each individual forecast model (ECMWF and HIRLAM) and to model the aggregated power curve of the Middelgrunden offshore wind farm. We showed that the combination of two NWP models clearly outperforms the better single model. The normalized day-ahead RMSE forecast error for Middelgrunden can be reduced by 1% compared to single ECMWF. This is a relative improvement of 6%. For lead times >24h it is worthwhile to use a more sophisticated model combination approach than simple linear weighting. The investigated principle component regression is able to extract the uncorrelated information from two NWP forecasts. The spread of Ensemble Predictions is related to the skill of wind power forecasts. Simple contingency diagrams show that low spread corresponds is more often related to low forecast errors and high spread to large forecast errors

  20. Modeling detailed hydro-meteorological surfaces and runoff response in large diverse watersheds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrne, J.; Kienzle, S.W.; MacDonald, R.J.

    2008-01-01

    An understanding of local variability in climatic conditions over complex terrain is imperative to making accurate assessments of impacts from climate change on fresh water ecosystems (Daly, 2006). The derivation of representative spatial data in diverse environments poses a significant challenge to the modelling community. This presentation describes the current status of a long term ongoing hydro-climate model development program. We are developing a gridded hydroclimate dataset for diverse watersheds using SimGrid (Larson, 2008; Lapp et al., 2005; Sheppard, 1996), a model that applies the Mountain Climate Model (MTCLIM; Hungerford et al., 1989) to simulate hydro-climatic conditions over diverse terrain. The model uses GIS based terrain categories (TC) classified by slope, aspect, elevation, and soil water storage. SimGrid provides daily estimates of solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, snowpack and soil water storage over space. Earlier versions of the model have been applied in the St. Mary (Larson, 2008) and upper Oldman basins (Lapp et al., 2005), giving realistic estimates of hydro-climatic variables. The current study demonstrates improvements to the estimation of temperature, precipitation, snowpack, soil water storage and runoff from the basin. Soil water storage data for the upper drainage were derived with GIS and included in SimGrid to estimate soil water flux over the time period. These changes help improve the estimation of spatial climatic variability over the basin while accounting for topographical influence. In further work we will apply spatial hydro-climatic surfaces from the SimGrid model to assess the hydrologic response to environmental change for watersheds in Canada and beyond. (author)

  1. Minimization of required model runs in the Random Mixing approach to inverse groundwater flow and transport modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoerning, Sebastian; Bardossy, Andras; du Plessis, Jaco

    2017-04-01

    Most geostatistical inverse groundwater flow and transport modelling approaches utilize a numerical solver to minimize the discrepancy between observed and simulated hydraulic heads and/or hydraulic concentration values. The optimization procedure often requires many model runs, which for complex models lead to long run times. Random Mixing is a promising new geostatistical technique for inverse modelling. The method is an extension of the gradual deformation approach. It works by finding a field which preserves the covariance structure and maintains observed hydraulic conductivities. This field is perturbed by mixing it with new fields that fulfill the homogeneous conditions. This mixing is expressed as an optimization problem which aims to minimize the difference between the observed and simulated hydraulic heads and/or concentration values. To preserve the spatial structure, the mixing weights must lie on the unit hyper-sphere. We present a modification to the Random Mixing algorithm which significantly reduces the number of model runs required. The approach involves taking n equally spaced points on the unit circle as weights for mixing conditional random fields. Each of these mixtures provides a solution to the forward model at the conditioning locations. For each of the locations the solutions are then interpolated around the circle to provide solutions for additional mixing weights at very low computational cost. The interpolated solutions are used to search for a mixture which maximally reduces the objective function. This is in contrast to other approaches which evaluate the objective function for the n mixtures and then interpolate the obtained values. Keeping the mixture on the unit circle makes it easy to generate equidistant sampling points in the space; however, this means that only two fields are mixed at a time. Once the optimal mixture for two fields has been found, they are combined to form the input to the next iteration of the algorithm. This

  2. Coupling Meteorological, Land Surface and Water Temperature Models in the Mississippi River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, C.; Cooter, E. J.

    2017-12-01

    Water temperature is a significant factor influencing of the stream ecosystem and water management especially under climate change. In this study, we demonstrate a physically based semi-Lagrangian water temperature model (RBM) coupled with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model and Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB). The results of this coupling compare favorably with observed water temperature data at river gages throughout the MRB. Further sensitivity analysis shows that mean water temperatures increase by 1.3°C, 1.5°C, and 1.8°C in northern, central and southern MRB zones, respectively, under a hypothetical uniform air temperature increase of 3°C. If air temperatures increase uniformly by 6°C in this scenario, then water temperatures are projected to increase by 3.3°C, 3.5°C and 4.0°C. Lastly, downscaled air temperatures from a global climate model are used to drive the coupled VIC and RBM model from 2020 to 2099. Average stream temperatures from 2020 to 2099 increase by 1°C to 8°C above 1950 to 2010 average water temperatures, with non-uniform increases along the river. In some portions of the MRB, stream temperatures could increase above survival thresholds for several native fish species, which are critical components of the stream ecosystem. The increased water temperature accelerates harmful algal blooming which results in a larger dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico.

  3. A comparison and update of direct kinematic-kinetic models of leg stiffness in human running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liew, Bernard X W; Morris, Susan; Masters, Ashleigh; Netto, Kevin

    2017-11-07

    Direct kinematic-kinetic modelling currently represents the "Gold-standard" in leg stiffness quantification during three-dimensional (3D) motion capture experiments. However, the medial-lateral components of ground reaction force and leg length have been neglected in current leg stiffness formulations. It is unknown if accounting for all 3D would alter healthy biologic estimates of leg stiffness, compared to present direct modelling methods. This study compared running leg stiffness derived from a new method (multiplanar method) which includes all three Cartesian axes, against current methods which either only include the vertical axis (line method) or only the plane of progression (uniplanar method). Twenty healthy female runners performed shod overground running at 5.0 m/s. Three-dimensional motion capture and synchronised in-ground force plates were used to track the change in length of the leg vector (hip joint centre to centre of pressure) and resultant projected ground reaction force. Leg stiffness was expressed as dimensionless units, as a percentage of an individual's bodyweight divided by standing leg length (BW/LL). Leg stiffness using the line method was larger than the uniplanar method by 15.6%BW/LL (P method by 24.2%BW/LL (P stiffness from the uniplanar method was larger than the multiplanar method by 8.5%BW/LL (6.5 kN/m) (P stiffness estimate with the multiplanar method. Given that limb movements typically occur in 3D, the new multiplanar method provides the most complete accounting of all force and length components in leg stiffness calculation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Towards a numerical run-out model for quick-clay slides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Issler, Dieter; L'Heureux, Jean-Sébastien; Cepeda, José M.; Luna, Byron Quan; Gebreslassie, Tesfahunegn A.

    2015-04-01

    Highly sensitive glacio-marine clays occur in many relatively low-lying areas near the coasts of eastern Canada, Scandinavia and northern Russia. If the load exceeds the yield stress of these clays, they quickly liquefy, with a reduction of the yield strength and the viscosity by several orders of magnitude. Leaching, fluvial erosion, earthquakes and man-made overloads, by themselves or combined, are the most frequent triggers of quick-clay slides, which are hard to predict and can attain catastrophic dimensions. The present contribution reports on two preparatory studies that were conducted with a view to creating a run-out model tailored to the characteristics of quick-clay slides. One study analyzed the connections between the morphological and geotechnical properties of more than 30 well-documented Norwegian quick-clay slides and their run-out behavior. The laboratory experiments by Locat and Demers (1988) suggest that the behavior of quick clays can be reasonably described by universal relations involving the liquidity index, plastic index, remolding energy, salinity and sensitivity. However, these tests should be repeated with Norwegian clays and analyzed in terms of a (shear-thinning) Herschel-Bulkley fluid rather than a Bingham fluid because the shear stress appears to grow in a sub-linear fashion with the shear rate. Further study is required to understand the discrepancy between the material parameters obtained in laboratory tests of material from observed slides and in back-calculations of the same slides with the simple model by Edgers & Karlsrud (1982). The second study assessed the capability of existing numerical flow models to capture the most important aspects of quick-clay slides by back-calculating three different, well documented events in Norway: Rissa (1978), Finneidfjord (1996) and Byneset (2012). The numerical codes were (i) BING, a quasi-two-dimensional visco-plastic model, (ii) DAN3D (2009 version), and (iii) MassMov2D. The latter two are

  5. Facilitating arrhythmia simulation: the method of quantitative cellular automata modeling and parallel running

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mondry Adrian

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many arrhythmias are triggered by abnormal electrical activity at the ionic channel and cell level, and then evolve spatio-temporally within the heart. To understand arrhythmias better and to diagnose them more precisely by their ECG waveforms, a whole-heart model is required to explore the association between the massively parallel activities at the channel/cell level and the integrative electrophysiological phenomena at organ level. Methods We have developed a method to build large-scale electrophysiological models by using extended cellular automata, and to run such models on a cluster of shared memory machines. We describe here the method, including the extension of a language-based cellular automaton to implement quantitative computing, the building of a whole-heart model with Visible Human Project data, the parallelization of the model on a cluster of shared memory computers with OpenMP and MPI hybrid programming, and a simulation algorithm that links cellular activity with the ECG. Results We demonstrate that electrical activities at channel, cell, and organ levels can be traced and captured conveniently in our extended cellular automaton system. Examples of some ECG waveforms simulated with a 2-D slice are given to support the ECG simulation algorithm. A performance evaluation of the 3-D model on a four-node cluster is also given. Conclusions Quantitative multicellular modeling with extended cellular automata is a highly efficient and widely applicable method to weave experimental data at different levels into computational models. This process can be used to investigate complex and collective biological activities that can be described neither by their governing differentiation equations nor by discrete parallel computation. Transparent cluster computing is a convenient and effective method to make time-consuming simulation feasible. Arrhythmias, as a typical case, can be effectively simulated with the methods

  6. A hierarchical Bayesian model for improving short-term forecasting of hospital demand by including meteorological information

    OpenAIRE

    Sahu, Sujit K.; Baffour, Bernard; Minty, John; Harper, Paul; Sarran, Christophe

    2013-01-01

    The effect of weather on health has been widely researched, and the ability to forecast meteorological events is able to offer valuable insights into the impact on public health services. In addition, better predictions of hospital demand that are more sensitive to fluctuations in weather can allow hospital administrators to optimise resource allocation and service delivery. Using historical hospital admission data and several seasonal and meteorological variables for a site near the hospital...

  7. Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998-2007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia

    OpenAIRE

    Loha, Eskindir; Lindtj?rn, Bernt

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Malaria transmission is complex and is believed to be associated with local climate changes. However, simple attempts to extrapolate malaria incidence rates from averaged regional meteorological conditions have proven unsuccessful. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if variations in specific meteorological factors are able to consistently predict P. falciparum malaria incidence at different locations in south Ethiopia. Methods Retrospective data from 4...

  8. Errors and improvements in the use of archived meteorological data for chemical transport modeling: an analysis using GEOS-Chem v11-01 driven by GEOS-5 meteorology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Yu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Global simulations of atmospheric chemistry are commonly conducted with off-line chemical transport models (CTMs driven by archived meteorological data from general circulation models (GCMs. The off-line approach has the advantages of simplicity and expediency, but it incurs errors due to temporal averaging in the meteorological archive and the inability to reproduce the GCM transport algorithms exactly. The CTM simulation is also often conducted at coarser grid resolution than the parent GCM. Here we investigate this cascade of CTM errors by using 222Rn–210Pb–7Be chemical tracer simulations off-line in the GEOS-Chem CTM at rectilinear 0.25°  ×  0.3125° (≈ 25 km and 2°  ×  2.5° (≈ 200 km resolutions and online in the parent GEOS-5 GCM at cubed-sphere c360 (≈ 25 km and c48 (≈ 200 km horizontal resolutions. The c360 GEOS-5 GCM meteorological archive, updated every 3 h and remapped to 0.25°  ×  0.3125°, is the standard operational product generated by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO and used as input by GEOS-Chem. We find that the GEOS-Chem 222Rn simulation at native 0.25°  ×  0.3125° resolution is affected by vertical transport errors of up to 20 % relative to the GEOS-5 c360 online simulation, in part due to loss of transient organized vertical motions in the GCM (resolved convection that are temporally averaged out in the 3 h meteorological archive. There is also significant error caused by operational remapping of the meteorological archive from a cubed-sphere to a rectilinear grid. Decreasing the GEOS-Chem resolution from 0.25°  ×  0.3125° to 2°  ×  2.5° induces further weakening of vertical transport as transient vertical motions are averaged out spatially and temporally. The resulting 222Rn concentrations simulated by the coarse-resolution GEOS-Chem are overestimated by up to 40 % in surface air relative to the

  9. Online coupled regional meteorology chemistry models in Europe: Current status and prospects

    OpenAIRE

    Baklanov, A.; Schlünzen, K.; Suppan, P.; Baldasano, J.; Brunner, D.; Aksoyoglu, S.; Carmichael, G.; Douros, J.; Flemming, J.; Forkel, R.; Galmarini, S.; Gauss, M.; Grell, G.; Hirtl, M.; Joffre, S.

    2014-01-01

    The simulation of the coupled evolution of atmospheric dynamics, pollutant transport, chemical reactions and atmospheric composition is one of the most challenging tasks in environmental modelling, climate change studies, and weather forecasting for the next decades as they all involve strongly integrated processes. Weather strongly influences air quality (AQ) and atmospheric transport of hazardous materials, while atmospheric composition can influence both weather and climate by direc...

  10. Development of a simulation model for compression ignition engine running with ignition improved blend

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudeshkumar Ponnusamy Moranahalli

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Department of Automobile Engineering, Anna University, Chennai, India. The present work describes the thermodynamic and heat transfer models used in a computer program which simulates the diesel fuel and ignition improver blend to predict the combustion and emission characteristics of a direct injection compression ignition engine fuelled with ignition improver blend using classical two zone approach. One zone consists of pure air called non burning zone and other zone consist of fuel and combustion products called burning zone. First law of thermodynamics and state equations are applied in each of the two zones to yield cylinder temperatures and cylinder pressure histories. Using the two zone combustion model the combustion parameters and the chemical equilibrium composition were determined. To validate the model an experimental investigation has been conducted on a single cylinder direct injection diesel engine fuelled with 12% by volume of 2- ethoxy ethanol blend with diesel fuel. Addition of ignition improver blend to diesel fuel decreases the exhaust smoke and increases the thermal efficiency for the power outputs. It was observed that there is a good agreement between simulated and experimental results and the proposed model requires low computational time for a complete run.

  11. High-resolution numerical modeling of meteorological and hydrological conditions during May 2014 floods in Serbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vujadinovic, Mirjam; Vukovic, Ana; Cvetkovic, Bojan; Pejanovic, Goran; Nickovic, Slobodan; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Rajkovic, Borivoj; Djordjevic, Marija

    2015-04-01

    In May 2014 west Balkan region was affected by catastrophic floods in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and eastern parts of Croatia. Observed precipitation amount were extremely high, on many stations largest ever recorded. In the period from 12th to 18th of May, most of Serbia received between 50 to 100 mm of rainfall, while western parts of the country, which were influenced the most, had over 200 mm of rainfall, locally even more than 300 mm. This very intense precipitation came when the soil was already saturated after a very wet period during the second half of April and beginning of May, when most of Serbia received between 120 i 170 mm of rainfall. New abundant precipitation on already saturated soil increased surface and underground water flow, caused floods, soil erosion and landslides. High water levels, most of them record breaking, were measured on the Sava, Drina, Dunav, Kolubara, Ljig, Ub, Toplica, Tamnava, Jadar, Zapadna Morava, Velika Morava, Mlava and Pek river. Overall, two cities and 17 municipals were severely affected by the floods, 32000 people were evacuated from their homes, while 51 died. Material damage to the infrastructure, energy power system, crops, livestock funds and houses is estimated to more than 2 billion euro. Although the operational numerical weather forecast gave in generally good precipitation prediction, flood forecasting in this case was mainly done through the expert judgment rather than relying on dynamic hydrological modeling. We applied an integrated atmospheric-hydrologic modelling system to some of the most impacted catchments in order to timely simulate hydrological response, and examine its potentials as a flood warning system. The system is based on the Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Model NMMB, which is a numerical weather prediction model that can be used on a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Its non-hydrostatic module allows high horizontal resolution and resolving cloud systems as well as large

  12. Modeling actual evapotranspiration with routine meteorological variables in the data-scarce region of the Tibetan Plateau: Comparisons and implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Ning; Zhang, Yinsheng; Xu, Chong-Yu; Szilagyi, Jozsef

    2015-08-01

    Quantitative estimation of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) by in situ measurements and mathematical modeling is a fundamental task for physical understanding of ETa as well as the feedback mechanisms between land and the ambient atmosphere. However, the ETa information in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has been greatly impeded by the extremely sparse ground observation network in the region. Approaches for estimating ETa solely from routine meteorological variables are therefore important for investigating spatiotemporal variations of ETa in the data-scarce region of the TP. Motivated by this need, the complementary relationship (CR) and Penman-Monteith approaches were evaluated against in situ measurements of ETa on a daily basis in an alpine steppe region of the TP. The former includes the Nonlinear Complementary Relationship (Nonlinear-CR) as well as the Complementary Relationship Areal Evapotranspiration (CRAE) models, while the latter involves the Katerji-Perrier and the Todorovic models. Results indicate that the Nonlinear-CR, CRAE, and Katerji-Perrier models are all capable of efficiently simulating daily ETa, provided their parameter values were appropriately calibrated. The Katerji-Perrier model performed best since its site-specific parameters take the soil water status into account. The Nonlinear-CR model also performed well with the advantage of not requiring the user to choose between a symmetric and asymmetric CR. The CRAE model, even with a relatively low Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) value, is also an acceptable approach in this data-scarce region as it does not need information of wind speed and ground surface conditions. In contrast, application of the Todorovic model was found to be inappropriate in the dry regions of the TP due to its significant overestimation of ETa as it neglects the effect of water stress on the bulk surface resistance. Sensitivity analysis of the parameter values demonstrated the relative importance of each parameter in the

  13. Assessing the impact of local meteorological variables on surface ozone in Hong Kong during 2000-2015 using quantile and multiple line regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wei; Fan, Shaojia; Guo, Hai; Gao, Bo; Sun, Jiaren; Chen, Laiguo

    2016-11-01

    The quantile regression (QR) method has been increasingly introduced to atmospheric environmental studies to explore the non-linear relationship between local meteorological conditions and ozone mixing ratios. In this study, we applied QR for the first time, together with multiple linear regression (MLR), to analyze the dominant meteorological parameters influencing the mean, 10th percentile, 90th percentile and 99th percentile of maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in 2000-2015 in Hong Kong. The dominance analysis (DA) was used to assess the relative importance of meteorological variables in the regression models. Results showed that the MLR models worked better at suburban and rural sites than at urban sites, and worked better in winter than in summer. QR models performed better in summer for 99th and 90th percentiles and performed better in autumn and winter for 10th percentile. And QR models also performed better in suburban and rural areas for 10th percentile. The top 3 dominant variables associated with MDA8 ozone concentrations, changing with seasons and regions, were frequently associated with the six meteorological parameters: boundary layer height, humidity, wind direction, surface solar radiation, total cloud cover and sea level pressure. Temperature rarely became a significant variable in any season, which could partly explain the peak of monthly average ozone concentrations in October in Hong Kong. And we found the effect of solar radiation would be enhanced during extremely ozone pollution episodes (i.e., the 99th percentile). Finally, meteorological effects on MDA8 ozone had no significant changes before and after the 2010 Asian Games.

  14. Sensitivity analysis of the meteorological model applied in the German risk study (DRS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vogt, S.

    1982-01-01

    In the first part of this paper it will be shown how the influence of uncertainties in estimation on risk statements is determined using methods of the probability theory. In particular the parameters contained in the dispersion model are studied more thoroughly. In the second part, based on the knowledge gathered in the previous investigations, new and more realistic best estimate values will be proposed for four selected parameters to be used in future work. The modifications in the risk statements by these new parameter values will be commented upon

  15. Prosthetic model, but not stiffness or height, affects the metabolic cost of running for athletes with unilateral transtibial amputations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Owen N; Taboga, Paolo; Grabowski, Alena M

    2017-07-01

    Running-specific prostheses enable athletes with lower limb amputations to run by emulating the spring-like function of biological legs. Current prosthetic stiffness and height recommendations aim to mitigate kinematic asymmetries for athletes with unilateral transtibial amputations. However, it is unclear how different prosthetic configurations influence the biomechanics and metabolic cost of running. Consequently, we investigated how prosthetic model, stiffness, and height affect the biomechanics and metabolic cost of running. Ten athletes with unilateral transtibial amputations each performed 15 running trials at 2.5 or 3.0 m/s while we measured ground reaction forces and metabolic rates. Athletes ran using three different prosthetic models with five different stiffness category and height combinations per model. Use of an Ottobock 1E90 Sprinter prosthesis reduced metabolic cost by 4.3 and 3.4% compared with use of Freedom Innovations Catapult [fixed effect (β) = -0.177; P Run (β = -0.139; P = 0.002) prostheses, respectively. Neither prosthetic stiffness ( P ≥ 0.180) nor height ( P = 0.062) affected the metabolic cost of running. The metabolic cost of running was related to lower peak (β = 0.649; P = 0.001) and stance average (β = 0.772; P = 0.018) vertical ground reaction forces, prolonged ground contact times (β = -4.349; P = 0.012), and decreased leg stiffness (β = 0.071; P running. Instead, an optimal prosthetic model, which improves overall biomechanics, minimizes the metabolic cost of running for athletes with unilateral transtibial amputations. NEW & NOTEWORTHY The metabolic cost of running for athletes with unilateral transtibial amputations depends on prosthetic model and is associated with lower peak and stance average vertical ground reaction forces, longer contact times, and reduced leg stiffness. Metabolic cost is unrelated to prosthetic stiffness, height, and stride kinematic symmetry. Unlike nonamputees who decrease leg stiffness with

  16. Air pollution meteorology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shirvaikar, V V; Daoo, V J [Environmental Assessment Div., Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India)

    2002-06-01

    This report is intended as a training cum reference document for scientists posted at the Environmental Laboratories at the Nuclear Power Station Sites and other sites of the Department of Atomic Energy with installations emitting air pollutants, radioactive or otherwise. Since a manual already exists for the computation of doses from radioactive air pollutants, a general approach is take here i.e. air pollutants in general are considered. The first chapter presents a brief introduction to the need and scope of air pollution dispersion modelling. The second chapter is a very important chapter discussing the aspects of meteorology relevant to air pollution and dispersion modelling. This chapter is important because without this information one really does not understand the phenomena affecting dispersion, the scope and applicability of various models or their limitations under various weather and site conditions. The third chapter discusses the air pollution models in detail. These models are applicable to distances of a few tens of kilometres. The fourth chapter discusses the various aspects of meteorological measurements relevant to air pollution. The chapters are followed by two appendices. Apendix A discusses the reliability of air pollution estimates. Apendix B gives some practical examples relevant to general air pollution. It is hoped that the document will prove very useful to the users. (author)

  17. RG running in a minimal UED model in light of recent LHC Higgs mass bounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blennow, Mattias; Melbéus, Henrik; Ohlsson, Tommy; Zhang, He

    2012-01-01

    We study how the recent ATLAS and CMS Higgs mass bounds affect the renormalization group running of the physical parameters in universal extra dimensions. Using the running of the Higgs self-coupling constant, we derive bounds on the cutoff scale of the extra-dimensional theory itself. We show that the running of physical parameters, such as the fermion masses and the CKM mixing matrix, is significantly restricted by these bounds. In particular, we find that the running of the gauge couplings cannot be sufficient to allow gauge unification at the cutoff scale.

  18. Treadmill Running Ameliorates Destruction of Articular Cartilage and Subchondral Bone, Not Only Synovitis, in a Rheumatoid Arthritis Rat Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seiji Shimomura

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available We analyzed the influence of treadmill running on rheumatoid arthritis (RA joints using a collagen-induced arthritis (CIA rat model. Eight-week-old male Dark Agouti rats were randomly divided into four groups: The control group, treadmill group (30 min/day for 4 weeks from 10-weeks-old, CIA group (induced CIA at 8-weeks-old, and CIA + treadmill group. Destruction of the ankle joint was evaluated by histological analyses. Morphological changes of subchondral bone were analyzed by μ-CT. CIA treatment-induced synovial membrane invasion, articular cartilage destruction, and bone erosion. Treadmill running improved these changes. The synovial membrane in CIA rats produced a large amount of tumor necrosis factor-α and Connexin 43; production was significantly suppressed by treadmill running. On μ-CT of the talus, bone volume fraction (BV/TV was significantly decreased in the CIA group. Marrow star volume (MSV, an index of bone loss, was significantly increased. These changes were significantly improved by treadmill running. Bone destruction in the talus was significantly increased with CIA and was suppressed by treadmill running. On tartrate-resistant acid phosphate and alkaline phosphatase (TRAP/ALP staining, the number of osteoclasts around the pannus was decreased by treadmill running. These findings indicate that treadmill running in CIA rats inhibited synovial hyperplasia and joint destruction.

  19. Stereological Study on the Positive Effect of Running Exercise on the Capillaries in the Hippocampus in a Depression Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linmu Chen

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Running exercise is an effective method to improve depressive symptoms when combined with drugs. However, the underlying mechanisms are not fully clear. Cerebral blood flow perfusion in depressed patients is significantly lower in the hippocampus. Physical activity can achieve cerebrovascular benefits. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of running exercise on capillaries in the hippocampal CA1 and dentate gyrus (DG regions. The chronic unpredictable stress (CUS depression model was used in this study. CUS rats were given 4 weeks of running exercise from the fifth week to the eighth week (20 min every day from Monday to Friday each week. The sucrose consumption test was used to measure anhedonia. Furthermore, stereological methods were used to investigate the capillary changes among the control group, CUS/Standard group and CUS/Running group. Sucrose consumption significantly increased in the CUS/Running group. Running exercise has positive effects on the capillaries parameters in the hippocampal CA1 and DG regions, such as the total volume, total length and total surface area. These results demonstrated that capillaries are protected by running exercise in the hippocampal CA1 and DG might be one of the structural bases for the exercise-induced treatment of depression-like behavior. These results suggest that drugs and behavior influence capillaries and may be considered as a new means for depression treatment in the future.

  20. Large Scale Model Test Investigation on Wave Run-Up in Irregular Waves at Slender Piles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramirez, Jorge Robert Rodriguez; Frigaard, Peter; Andersen, Thomas Lykke

    2013-01-01

    An experimental large scale study on wave run-up generated loads on entrance platforms for offshore wind turbines was performed. The experiments were performed at GrosserWellenkanal (GWK), Forschungszentrum Küste (FZK) in Hannover, Germany. The present paper deals with the run-up heights determin...

  1. A hydro-meteorological model chain to assess the influence of natural variability and impacts of climate change on extreme events and propose optimal water management

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Trentini, F.; Willkofer, F.; Wood, R. R.; Schmid, F. J.; Ludwig, R.

    2017-12-01

    The ClimEx project (Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec) focuses on the effects of climate change on hydro-meteorological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. Therefore, a hydro-meteorological model chain is applied. It employs high performance computing capacity of the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre facility SuperMUC to dynamically downscale 50 members of the Global Circulation Model CanESM2 over European and Eastern North American domains using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (RCM) CRCM5. Over Europe, the unique single model ensemble is conjointly analyzed with the latest information provided through the CORDEX-initiative, to better assess the influence of natural climate variability and climatic change in the dynamics of extreme events. Furthermore, these 50 members of a single RCM will enhance extreme value statistics (extreme return periods) by exploiting the available 1500 model years for the reference period from 1981 to 2010. Hence, the RCM output is applied to drive the process based, fully distributed, and deterministic hydrological model WaSiM in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. WaSiM and the large ensemble are further used to derive a variety of hydro-meteorological patterns leading to severe flood events. A tool for virtual perfect prediction shall provide a combination of optimal lead time and management strategy to mitigate certain flood events following these patterns.

  2. Modelling NOX concentrations through CFD-RANS in an urban hot-spot using high resolution traffic emissions and meteorology from a mesoscale model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Beatriz; Santiago, Jose Luis; Martilli, Alberto; Martin, Fernando; Borge, Rafael; Quaassdorff, Christina; de la Paz, David

    2017-08-01

    Air quality management requires more detailed studies about air pollution at urban and local scale over long periods of time. This work focuses on obtaining the spatial distribution of NOx concentration averaged over several days in a heavily trafficked urban area in Madrid (Spain) using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. A methodology based on weighted average of CFD simulations is applied computing the time evolution of NOx dispersion as a sequence of steady-state scenarios taking into account the actual atmospheric conditions. The inputs of emissions are estimated from the traffic emission model and the meteorological information used is derived from a mesoscale model. Finally, the computed concentration map correlates well with 72 passive samplers deployed in the research area. This work reveals the potential of using urban mesoscale simulations together with detailed traffic emissions so as to provide accurate maps of pollutant concentration at microscale using CFD simulations.

  3. Using Constraints from Satellite Gravimetry to Study Meteorological Excitations of the Chandler Wobble for an Earth Model with Frequency-dependent Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, W.; Li, J.; Ray, J.; Cheng, M.; Chen, J.; Wilson, C. R.

    2015-12-01

    What maintain(s) the damping Chandler wobble (CW) is still under debate though meteorological excitations are now more preferred. However, controversial results have been obtained: Gross [2000] and Gross et al. [2003] suggested oceanic processes are more efficient to excite the CW than atmospheric ones during 1980 - 2000. Brzezinski and Nastula [2002] concluded that their contributions are almost the same, and they can only provide ~80% of the power needed to maintain the CW observed during 1985 - 1996. Polar motion excitations involve not only the perturbations within the Earth system (namely, mass redistributions and motions of relative to the mantle), but also the Earth's responses to those perturbations (namely, the rheology of the Earth). Chen et al. [2013a] developed an improved theory for polar motion excitation taking into account the Earth's frequency-dependent responses, of which the polar motion transfer functions are ~10% higher than those of previous theories around the CW band. Chen et al. [2013b] compared the geophysical excitations derived from various global atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological models (NCEP, ECCO, ERA40, ERAinterim and ECMWF operational products), and found significant and broad-band discrepancies for models released by different institutes. In addition, the atmosphere, ocean and hydrology models are usually developed in a somewhat independent manner and thus the global (atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological) mass is not conserved [e.g., Yan and Chao, 2012]. Therefore, the matter-term excitations estimated from those models are problematic. In one word, it is unlikely to obtain reliable conclusions on meteorological excitations of CW on the basis of the original meteorological models. Satellite gravimetry can measure mass transportations caused by atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological processes much more accurately than those provided by the original meteorological models, and can force the global (atmospheric, oceanic and

  4. Model analysis of urbanization impacts on boundary layer meteorology under hot weather conditions: a case study of Nanjing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lei; Zhang, Meigen; Wang, Yongwei

    2016-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, configured with a single-layer urban canopy model, was employed to investigate the influence of urbanization on boundary layer meteorological parameters during a long-lasting heat wave. This study was conducted over Nanjing city, East China, from 26 July to 4 August 2010. The impacts of urban expansion and anthropogenic heat (AH) release were simulated to quantify their effects on 2-m temperature, 2-m water vapor mixing ratio, and 10-m wind speed and heat stress index. Urban sprawl increased the daily 2-m temperature in urbanized areas by around 1.6 °C and decreased the urban diurnal temperature range (DTR) by 1.24 °C. The contribution of AH release to the atmospheric warming was nearly 22 %, but AH had little influence on the DTR. The urban regional mean surface wind speed decreased by about 0.4 m s-1, and this decrease was successfully simulated from the surface to 300 m. The influence of urbanization on 2-m water vapor mixing ratio was significant over highly urbanized areas with a decrease of 1.1-1.8 g kg-1. With increased urbanization ratio, the duration of the inversion layer was about 4 h shorter, and the lower atmospheric layer was less stable. Urban heat island (UHI) intensity was significantly enhanced when synthesizing both urban sprawl and AH release and the daily mean UHI intensity increased by 0.74 °C. Urbanization increased the time under extreme heat stress (about 40 %) and worsened the living environment in urban areas.

  5. A Bayesian analysis of sensible heat flux estimation: Quantifying uncertainty in meteorological forcing to improve model prediction

    KAUST Repository

    Ershadi, Ali

    2013-05-01

    The influence of uncertainty in land surface temperature, air temperature, and wind speed on the estimation of sensible heat flux is analyzed using a Bayesian inference technique applied to the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model. The Bayesian approach allows for an explicit quantification of the uncertainties in input variables: a source of error generally ignored in surface heat flux estimation. An application using field measurements from the Soil Moisture Experiment 2002 is presented. The spatial variability of selected input meteorological variables in a multitower site is used to formulate the prior estimates for the sampling uncertainties, and the likelihood function is formulated assuming Gaussian errors in the SEBS model. Land surface temperature, air temperature, and wind speed were estimated by sampling their posterior distribution using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Results verify that Bayesian-inferred air temperature and wind speed were generally consistent with those observed at the towers, suggesting that local observations of these variables were spatially representative. Uncertainties in the land surface temperature appear to have the strongest effect on the estimated sensible heat flux, with Bayesian-inferred values differing by up to ±5°C from the observed data. These differences suggest that the footprint of the in situ measured land surface temperature is not representative of the larger-scale variability. As such, these measurements should be used with caution in the calculation of surface heat fluxes and highlight the importance of capturing the spatial variability in the land surface temperature: particularly, for remote sensing retrieval algorithms that use this variable for flux estimation.

  6. A study of the dengue epidemic and meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China, by using a zero-inflated Poisson regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chenggang; Jiang, Baofa; Fan, Jingchun; Wang, Furong; Liu, Qiyong

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study is to develop a model that correctly identifies and quantifies the relationship between dengue and meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China. By cross-correlation analysis, meteorological variables and their lag effects were determined. According to the epidemic characteristics of dengue in Guangzhou, those statistically significant variables were modeled by a zero-inflated Poisson regression model. The number of dengue cases and minimum temperature at 1-month lag, along with average relative humidity at 0- to 1-month lag were all positively correlated with the prevalence of dengue fever, whereas wind velocity and temperature in the same month along with rainfall at 2 months' lag showed negative association with dengue incidence. Minimum temperature at 1-month lag and wind velocity in the same month had a greater impact on the dengue epidemic than other variables in Guangzhou.

  7. Instantaneous-to-daily GPP upscaling schemes based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model: correcting the overestimation of GPP by directly using daily average meteorological inputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fumin; Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Black, T Andrew; Zhou, Bin

    2014-11-01

    Daily canopy photosynthesis is usually temporally upscaled from instantaneous (i.e., seconds) photosynthesis rate. The nonlinear response of photosynthesis to meteorological variables makes the temporal scaling a significant challenge. In this study, two temporal upscaling schemes of daily photosynthesis, the integrated daily model (IDM) and the segmented daily model (SDM), are presented by considering the diurnal variations of meteorological variables based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model. The two models, as well as a simple average daily model (SADM) with daily average meteorological inputs, were validated using the tower-derived gross primary production (GPP) to assess their abilities in simulating daily photosynthesis. The results showed IDM closely followed the seasonal trend of the tower-derived GPP with an average RMSE of 1.63 g C m(-2) day(-1), and an average Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E) of 0.87. SDM performed similarly to IDM in GPP simulation but decreased the computation time by >66%. SADM overestimated daily GPP by about 15% during the growing season compared to IDM. Both IDM and SDM greatly decreased the overestimation by SADM, and improved the simulation of daily GPP by reducing the RMSE by 34 and 30%, respectively. The results indicated that IDM and SDM are useful temporal upscaling approaches, and both are superior to SADM in daily GPP simulation because they take into account the diurnally varying responses of photosynthesis to meteorological variables. SDM is computationally more efficient, and therefore more suitable for long-term and large-scale GPP simulations.

  8. Improved Meteorological Input for Atmospheric Release Decision support Systems and an Integrated LES Modeling System for Atmospheric Dispersion of Toxic Agents: Homeland Security Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnold, E; Simpson, M; Larsen, S; Gash, J; Aluzzi, F; Lundquist, J; Sugiyama, G

    2010-04-26

    When hazardous material is accidently or intentionally released into the atmosphere, emergency response organizations look to decision support systems (DSSs) to translate contaminant information provided by atmospheric models into effective decisions to protect the public and emergency responders and to mitigate subsequent consequences. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS)-led Interagency Modeling and Atmospheric Assessment Center (IMAAC) is one of the primary DSSs utilized by emergency management organizations. IMAAC is responsible for providing 'a single piont for the coordination and dissemination of Federal dispersion modeling and hazard prediction products that represent the Federal position' during actual or potential incidents under the National Response Plan. The Department of Energy's (DOE) National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC), locatec at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), serves as the primary operations center of the IMAAC. A key component of atmospheric release decision support systems is meteorological information - models and data of winds, turbulence, and other atmospheric boundary-layer parameters. The accuracy of contaminant predictions is strongly dependent on the quality of this information. Therefore, the effectiveness of DSSs can be enhanced by improving the meteorological options available to drive atmospheric transport and fate models. The overall goal of this project was to develop and evaluate new meteorological modeling capabilities for DSSs based on the use of NASA Earth-science data sets in order to enhance the atmospheric-hazard information provided to emergency managers and responders. The final report describes the LLNL contributions to this multi-institutional effort. LLNL developed an approach to utilize NCAR meteorological predictions using NASA MODIS data for the New York City (NYC) region and demonstrated the potential impact of the use of different data sources and data

  9. Coupling of WRF meteorological model to WAM spectral wave model through sea surface roughness at the Balearic Sea: impact on wind and wave forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolosana-Delgado, R.; Soret, A.; Jorba, O.; Baldasano, J. M.; Sánchez-Arcilla, A.

    2012-04-01

    Meteorological models, like WRF, usually describe the earth surface characteristics by tables that are function of land-use. The roughness length (z0) is an example of such approach. However, over sea z0 is modeled by the Charnock (1955) relation, linking the surface friction velocity u*2 with the roughness length z0 of turbulent air flow, z0 = α-u2* g The Charnock coefficient α may be considered a measure of roughness. For the sea surface, WRF considers a constant roughness α = 0.0185. However, there is evidence that sea surface roughness should depend on wave energy (Donelan, 1982). Spectral wave models like WAM, model the evolution and propagation of wave energy as a function of wind, and include a richer sea surface roughness description. Coupling WRF and WAM is thus a common way to improve the sea surface roughness description of WRF. WAM is a third generation wave model, solving the equation of advection of wave energy subject to input/output terms of: wind growth, energy dissipation and resonant non-linear wave-wave interactions. Third generation models work on the spectral domain. WAM considers the Charnock coefficient α a complex yet known function of the total wind input term, which depends on the wind velocity and on the Charnock coefficient again. This is solved iteratively (Janssen et al., 1990). Coupling of meteorological and wave models through a common Charnock coefficient is operationally done in medium-range met forecasting systems (e.g., at ECMWF) though the impact of coupling for smaller domains is not yet clearly assessed (Warner et al, 2010). It is unclear to which extent the additional effort of coupling improves the local wind and wave fields, in comparison to the effects of other factors, like e.g. a better bathymetry and relief resolution, or a better circulation information which might have its influence on local-scale meteorological processes (local wind jets, local convection, daily marine wind regimes, etc.). This work, within the

  10. Site-specific meteorology identification for DOE facility accident analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rabin, S.B.

    1995-01-01

    Currently, chemical dispersion calculations performed for safety analysis of DOE facilities assume a Pasquill D-Stability Class with a 4.5 m/s windspeed. These meteorological conditions are assumed to conservatively address the source term generation mechanism as well as the dispersion mechanism thereby resulting in a net conservative downwind consequence. While choosing this Stability Class / Windspeed combination may result in an overall conservative consequence, the level of conservative can not be quantified. The intent of this paper is to document a methodology which incorporates site-specific meteorology to determine a quantifiable consequence of a chemical release. A five-year meteorological database, appropriate for the facility location, is utilized for these chemical consequence calculations, and is consistent with the approach used for radiological releases. The hourly averages of meteorological conditions have been binned into 21 groups for the chemical consequence calculations. These 21 cases each have a probability of occurrence based on the number of times each case has occurred over the five year sampling period. A code has been developed which automates the running of all the cases with a commercially available air modeling code. The 21 cases are sorted by concentration. A concentration may be selected by the user for a quantified level of conservatism. The methodology presented is intended to improve the technical accuracy and defensability of Chemical Source Term / Dispersion Safety Analysis work. The result improves the quality of safety analyses products without significantly increasing the cost

  11. Modeling of the anthropogenic heat flux and its effect on regional meteorology and air quality over the Yangtze River Delta region, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Xie

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic heat (AH emissions from human activities caused by urbanization can affect the city environment. Based on the energy consumption and the gridded demographic data, the spatial distribution of AH emission over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD region is estimated. Meanwhile, a new method for the AH parameterization is developed in the WRF/Chem model, which incorporates the gridded AH emission data with the seasonal and diurnal variations into the simulations. By running this upgraded WRF/Chem for 2 typical months in 2010, the impacts of AH on the meteorology and air quality over the YRD region are studied. The results show that the AH fluxes over the YRD have been growing in recent decades. In 2010, the annual-mean values of AH over Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 14.46, 2.61 and 1.63 W m−2, respectively, with the high value of 113.5 W m−2 occurring in the urban areas of Shanghai. These AH emissions can significantly change the urban heat island and urban-breeze circulations in the cities of the YRD region. In Shanghai, 2 m air temperature increases by 1.6 °C in January and 1.4 °C in July, the PBLH (planetary boundary layer height rises up by 140 m in January and 160 m in July, and 10 m wind speed is enhanced by 0.7 m s−1 in January and 0.5 m s−1 in July, with a higher increment at night. The enhanced vertical movement can transport more moisture to higher levels, which causes the decrease in water vapor at ground level and the increase in the upper PBL (planetary boundary layer, and thereby induces the accumulative precipitation to increase by 15–30 % over the megacities in July. The adding of AH can impact the spatial and vertical distributions of the simulated pollutants as well. The concentrations of primary air pollutants decrease near the surface and increase at the upper levels, due mainly to the increases in PBLH, surface wind speed and upward air vertical movement. But surface O3

  12. Modeling of the anthropogenic heat flux and its effect on regional meteorology and air quality over the Yangtze River Delta region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Min; Liao, Jingbiao; Wang, Tijian; Zhu, Kuanguang; Zhuang, Bingliang; Han, Yong; Li, Mengmeng; Li, Shu

    2016-05-01

    Anthropogenic heat (AH) emissions from human activities caused by urbanization can affect the city environment. Based on the energy consumption and the gridded demographic data, the spatial distribution of AH emission over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region is estimated. Meanwhile, a new method for the AH parameterization is developed in the WRF/Chem model, which incorporates the gridded AH emission data with the seasonal and diurnal variations into the simulations. By running this upgraded WRF/Chem for 2 typical months in 2010, the impacts of AH on the meteorology and air quality over the YRD region are studied. The results show that the AH fluxes over the YRD have been growing in recent decades. In 2010, the annual-mean values of AH over Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 14.46, 2.61 and 1.63 W m-2, respectively, with the high value of 113.5 W m-2 occurring in the urban areas of Shanghai. These AH emissions can significantly change the urban heat island and urban-breeze circulations in the cities of the YRD region. In Shanghai, 2 m air temperature increases by 1.6 °C in January and 1.4 °C in July, the PBLH (planetary boundary layer height) rises up by 140 m in January and 160 m in July, and 10 m wind speed is enhanced by 0.7 m s-1 in January and 0.5 m s-1 in July, with a higher increment at night. The enhanced vertical movement can transport more moisture to higher levels, which causes the decrease in water vapor at ground level and the increase in the upper PBL (planetary boundary layer), and thereby induces the accumulative precipitation to increase by 15-30 % over the megacities in July. The adding of AH can impact the spatial and vertical distributions of the simulated pollutants as well. The concentrations of primary air pollutants decrease near the surface and increase at the upper levels, due mainly to the increases in PBLH, surface wind speed and upward air vertical movement. But surface O3 concentrations increase in the urban areas, with maximum

  13. Meteorological considerations in emergency response capability at nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fairobent, J.E.

    1985-01-01

    Meteorological considerations in emergency response at nuclear power plants are discussed through examination of current regulations and guidance documents, including discussion of the rationale for current regulatory requirements related to meteorological information for emergency response. Areas discussed include: major meteorological features important to emergency response; onsite meteorological measurements programs, including redundant and backup measurements; access to offsite sources of meteorological information; consideration of real-time and forecast conditions and atmospheric dispersion modeling

  14. A Regional Analysis of Non-Methane Hydrocarbons And Meteorology of The Rural Southeast United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-01-01

    Zt is an ARIMA time series. This is a typical regression model , except that it allows for autocorrelation in the error term Z. In this work, an ARMA...data=folder; var residual; run; II Statistical output of 1992 regression model on 1993 ozone data ARIMA Procedure Maximum Likelihood Estimation Approx...at each of the sites, and to show the effect of synoptic meteorology on high ozone by examining NOAA daily weather maps and climatic data

  15. Application of WRF/Chem-MADRID and WRF/Polyphemus in Europe - Part 1: Model description and evaluation of meteorological predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Sartelet, K.; Wu, S.-Y.; Seigneur, C.

    2013-02-01

    Comprehensive model evaluation and comparison of two 3-D air quality modeling systems (i.e. the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF)/Polyphemus and WRF with chemistry and the Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ionization, and Dissolution (MADRID) (WRF/Chem-MADRID) are conducted over western Europe. Part 1 describes the background information for the model comparison and simulation design, as well as the application of WRF for January and July 2001 over triple-nested domains in western Europe at three horizontal grid resolutions: 0.5°, 0.125°, and 0.025°. Six simulated meteorological variables (i.e. temperature at 2 m (T2), specific humidity at 2 m (Q2), relative humidity at 2 m (RH2), wind speed at 10 m (WS10), wind direction at 10 m (WD10), and precipitation (Precip)) are evaluated using available observations in terms of spatial distribution, domainwide daily and site-specific hourly variations, and domainwide performance statistics. WRF demonstrates its capability in capturing diurnal/seasonal variations and spatial gradients of major meteorological variables. While the domainwide performance of T2, Q2, RH2, and WD10 at all three grid resolutions is satisfactory overall, large positive or negative biases occur in WS10 and Precip even at 0.025°. In addition, discrepancies between simulations and observations exist in T2, Q2, WS10, and Precip at mountain/high altitude sites and large urban center sites in both months, in particular, during snow events or thunderstorms. These results indicate the model's difficulty in capturing meteorological variables in complex terrain and subgrid-scale meteorological phenomena, due to inaccuracies in model initialization parameterization (e.g. lack of soil temperature and moisture nudging), limitations in the physical parameterizations of the planetary boundary layer (e.g. cloud microphysics, cumulus parameterizations, and ice nucleation treatments) as well as limitations in surface heat and moisture budget

  16. Run-of-River Impoundments Can Remain Unfilled While Transporting Gravel Bedload: Numerical Modeling Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, A.; Pizzuto, J. E.

    2015-12-01

    Previous work at run-of-river (ROR) dams in northern Delaware has shown that bedload supplied to ROR impoundments can be transported over the dam when impoundments remain unfilled. Transport is facilitated by high levels of sand in the impoundment that lowers the critical shear stresses for particle entrainment, and an inversely sloping sediment ramp connecting the impoundment bed (where the water depth is typically equal to the dam height) with the top of the dam (Pearson and Pizzuto, in press). We demonstrate with one-dimensional bed material transport modeling that bed material can move through impoundments and that equilibrium transport (i.e., a balance between supply to and export from the impoundment, with a constant bed elevation) is possible even when the bed elevation is below the top of the dam. Based on our field work and previous HEC-RAS modeling, we assess bed material transport capacity at the base of the sediment ramp (and ignore detailed processes carrying sediment up and ramp and over the dam). The hydraulics at the base of the ramp are computed using a weir equation, providing estimates of water depth, velocity, and friction, based on the discharge and sediment grain size distribution of the impoundment. Bedload transport rates are computed using the Wilcock-Crowe equation, and changes in the impoundment's bed elevation are determined by sediment continuity. Our results indicate that impoundments pass the gravel supplied from upstream with deep pools when gravel supply rate is low, gravel grain sizes are relatively small, sand supply is high, and discharge is high. Conversely, impoundments will tend to fill their pools when gravel supply rate is high, gravel grain sizes are relatively large, sand supply is low, and discharge is low. The rate of bedload supplied to an impoundment is the primary control on how fast equilibrium transport is reached, with discharge having almost no influence on the timing of equilibrium.

  17. Quantitative assessment of changes in landslide risk using a regional scale run-out model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussin, Haydar; Chen, Lixia; Ciurean, Roxana; van Westen, Cees; Reichenbach, Paola; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2015-04-01

    The risk of landslide hazard continuously changes in time and space and is rarely a static or constant phenomena in an affected area. However one of the main challenges of quantitatively assessing changes in landslide risk is the availability of multi-temporal data for the different components of risk. Furthermore, a truly "quantitative" landslide risk analysis requires the modeling of the landslide intensity (e.g. flow depth, velocities or impact pressures) affecting the elements at risk. Such a quantitative approach is often lacking in medium to regional scale studies in the scientific literature or is left out altogether. In this research we modelled the temporal and spatial changes of debris flow risk in a narrow alpine valley in the North Eastern Italian Alps. The debris flow inventory from 1996 to 2011 and multi-temporal digital elevation models (DEMs) were used to assess the susceptibility of debris flow triggering areas and to simulate debris flow run-out using the Flow-R regional scale model. In order to determine debris flow intensities, we used a linear relationship that was found between back calibrated physically based Flo-2D simulations (local scale models of five debris flows from 2003) and the probability values of the Flow-R software. This gave us the possibility to assign flow depth to a total of 10 separate classes on a regional scale. Debris flow vulnerability curves from the literature and one curve specifically for our case study area were used to determine the damage for different material and building types associated with the elements at risk. The building values were obtained from the Italian Revenue Agency (Agenzia delle Entrate) and were classified per cadastral zone according to the Real Estate Observatory data (Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare, Agenzia Entrate - OMI). The minimum and maximum market value for each building was obtained by multiplying the corresponding land-use value (€/msq) with building area and number of floors

  18. A simple running model with rolling contact and its role as a template for dynamic locomotion on a hexapod robot

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Ke-Jung; Huang, Chun-Kai; Lin, Pei-Chun

    2014-01-01

    We report on the development of a robot’s dynamic locomotion based on a template which fits the robot’s natural dynamics. The developed template is a low degree-of-freedom planar model for running with rolling contact, which we call rolling spring loaded inverted pendulum (R-SLIP). Originating from a reduced-order model of the RHex-style robot with compliant circular legs, the R-SLIP model also acts as the template for general dynamic running. The model has a torsional spring and a large circular arc as the distributed foot, so during locomotion it rolls on the ground with varied equivalent linear stiffness. This differs from the well-known spring loaded inverted pendulum (SLIP) model with fixed stiffness and ground contact points. Through dimensionless steps-to-fall and return map analysis, within a wide range of parameter spaces, the R-SLIP model is revealed to have self-stable gaits and a larger stability region than that of the SLIP model. The R-SLIP model is then embedded as the reduced-order ‘template’ in a more complex ‘anchor’, the RHex-style robot, via various mapping definitions between the template and the anchor. Experimental validation confirms that by merely deploying the stable running gaits of the R-SLIP model on the empirical robot with simple open-loop control strategy, the robot can easily initiate its dynamic running behaviors with a flight phase and can move with similar body state profiles to those of the model, in all five testing speeds. The robot, embedded with the SLIP model but performing walking locomotion, further confirms the importance of finding an adequate template of the robot for dynamic locomotion. (paper)

  19. Dark Matter Benchmark Models for Early LHC Run-2 Searches. Report of the ATLAS/CMS Dark Matter Forum

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abercrombie, Daniel [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States). et al.

    2015-07-06

    One of the guiding principles of this report is to channel the efforts of the ATLAS and CMS collaborations towards a minimal basis of dark matter models that should influence the design of the early Run-2 searches. At the same time, a thorough survey of realistic collider signals of Dark Matter is a crucial input to the overall design of the search program.

  20. Physically based dynamic run-out modelling for quantitative debris flow risk assessment: a case study in Tresenda, northern Italy

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Quan Luna, B.; Blahůt, Jan; Camera, C.; Van Westen, C.; Apuani, T.; Jetten, V.; Sterlacchini, S.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 72, č. 3 (2014), s. 645-661 ISSN 1866-6280 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : debris flow * FLO-2D * run-out * quantitative hazard and risk assessment * vulnerability * numerical modelling Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 1.765, year: 2014

  1. Domain-Level Assessment of the Weather Running Estimate-Nowcast (WREN) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-01

    Oceans, and Land Surface; 2016 Sep 1; Atlanta (GA): American Meteorological Society [accessed 2016 Aug 2]. De Pondeca MSFV, Manikin GS, DiMego G...Dudhia J, Hacker J, Bruyere C, Wu W, Vandenberghe F, Liu Y, Bourgeois A. Update on the WRF-ARW end-to-end multi-scale FDDA system. Paper presented...Kain JS. The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization: an update. J App Meteo. 2004;43:170–181. Liu Y, Bourgeois A, Warner T, Swerdlin S, Hacker J

  2. Search for non-standard model signatures in the WZ/ZZ final state at CDF run II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Norman, Matthew [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States)

    2009-01-01

    This thesis discusses a search for non-Standard Model physics in heavy diboson production in the dilepton-dijet final state, using 1.9 fb -1 of data from the CDF Run II detector. New limits are set on the anomalous coupling parameters for ZZ and WZ production based on limiting the production cross-section at high š. Additionally limits are set on the direct decay of new physics to ZZ andWZ diboson pairs. The nature and parameters of the CDF Run II detector are discussed, as are the influences that it has on the methods of our analysis.

  3. Search for non-standard model signatures in the WZ/ZZ final state at CDF Run II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norman, Matthew

    2009-01-01

    This thesis discusses a search for non-Standard Model physics in heavy diboson production in the dilepton-dijet final state, using 1.9 fb -1 of data from the CDF Run II detector. New limits are set on the anomalous coupling parameters for ZZ and WZ production based on limiting the production cross-section at high (cflx s). Additionally limits are set on the direct decay of new physics to ZZ andWZ diboson pairs. The nature and parameters of the CDF Run II detector are discussed, as are the influences that it has on the methods of our analysis.

  4. Liquidity Runs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matta, R.; Perotti, E.

    2016-01-01

    Can the risk of losses upon premature liquidation produce bank runs? We show how a unique run equilibrium driven by asset liquidity risk arises even under minimal fundamental risk. To study the role of illiquidity we introduce realistic norms on bank default, such that mandatory stay is triggered

  5. Four-dimensional data assimilation as a method for coupling two meteorological model systems of different scales; Vierdimensionale Datenassimilation als Methode zur Kopplung zweier verschiedenskaliger meteorologischer Modellsysteme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilms-Grabe, W.

    2001-10-01

    A method of coupling two meteorological models of different scales must meet certain requirements: First, even a big difference in resolution between the two models must not produce disturbances in the smaller-scale model. This means that most nesting approaches are unfit for the purpose. The method presented here is not limited to meteorological models. It can be enhanced without much difficulty to dispersion models taking account of chemical atmospheric reactions, as e.g. in the CTM of the EURAD model or in DRAIS as an enhancement of the KAMM version. [German] Das Ziel dieser Arbeit bestand in der Entwicklung eines geeigneten Kopplungsverfahrens zweier verschiedenskaliger meteorologischer Modelle, das in einem Ein-Weg-Nesting dem kleinerskaligen Modell ermoeglicht, sowohl instationaere superskalige Verhaeltnisse als auch modellinterne kleinraeumige Prozesse miteinander zu verbinden. Im Rahmen des Projektes TFS mussten hierbei entscheidende Bedingungen an das Kopplungsverfahren gestellt werden. Allen voran darf vor allem ein auch grosser Unterschied in der Aufloesung der beiden verschiedenskaligen Modelle keine kuenstlichen Stoerungen im kleinerskaligen Modell produzieren. Somit scheiden die sonst ueblichen Nestingansaetze fuer diesen Fall aus. Das Verfahren ist derart konzipiert, dass es sich nicht auf rein meteorologische Modelle beschraenkt. Eine Ausweitung auf Ausbreitungsmodelle unter Beruecksichtigung chemischer Reaktionen in der Atmosphaere, wie sie etwa im CTM des EURAD-Modells oder im DRAIS als Erweiterung der KAMM-Version zur Verfuegung stehen, stellt keinen allzu grossen Schritt mehr dar. (orig.)

  6. Spatial clustering and meteorological drivers of summer ozone in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carro-Calvo, Leopoldo; Ordóñez, Carlos; García-Herrera, Ricardo; Schnell, Jordan L.

    2017-10-01

    We have applied the k-means clustering technique on a maximum daily 8-h running average near-surface ozone (MDA8 O3) gridded dataset over Europe at 1° × 1° resolution for summer 1998-2012. This has resulted in a spatial division of nine regions where ozone presents coherent spatiotemporal patterns. The role of meteorology in the variability of ozone at different time scales has been investigated by using daily meteorological fields from the NCEP-NCAR meteorological reanalysis. In the five regions of central-southern Europe ozone extremes (exceedances of the summer 95th percentile) occur mostly under anticyclonic circulation or weak sea level pressure gradients which trigger elevated temperatures and the recirculation of air masses. In the four northern regions extremes are associated with high-latitude anticyclones that divert the typical westerly flow at those latitudes and cause the advection of aged air masses from the south. The impact of meteorology on the day-to-day variability of ozone has been assessed by means of two different types of multiple linear models. These include as predictors meteorological fields averaged within the regions (;region-based; approach) or synoptic indices indicating the degree of resemblance between the daily meteorological fields over a large domain (25°-70° N, 35° W - 35° E) and their corresponding composites for extreme ozone days (;index-based; approach). With the first approach, a reduced set of variables, always including daily maximum temperature within the region, explains 47-66% of the variability (adjusted R2) in central-southern Europe, while more complex models are needed to explain 27-49% of the variability in the northern regions. The index-based approach yields better results for the regions of northern Europe, with adjusted R2 = 40-57%. Finally, both methodologies have also been applied to reproduce the interannual variability of ozone, with the best models explaining 66-88% of the variance in central

  7. Software library of meteorological routines for air quality models; Libreria de software de procedimientos meteorologicos para modelos de dispersion de contaminantes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galindo Garcia, Ivan Francisco

    1999-04-01

    Air quality models are an essential tool for most air pollution studies. The models require, however, certain meteorological information about the model domain. Some of the required meteorological parameters can be measured directly, but others must be estimated from available measured data. Therefore, a set of procedures, routines and computational programs to obtain all the meteorological and micrometeorological input data is required. The objective in this study is the identification and implementation of several relationships and methods for the determination of all the meteorological parameters required as input data by US-EPA recommended air pollution models. To accomplish this, a study about air pollution models was conducted, focusing, particularly, on the model meteorological input data. Also, the meteorological stations from the Servicio Meteorologico Nacional (SMN) were analyzed. The type and quality of the meteorological data produced was obtained. The routines and methods developed were based, particularly, on the data produced by SMN stations. Routines were organized in a software library, which allows one to build the specific meteorological processor needed, independently of the model used. Methods were validated against data obtained from an advanced meteorological station owned and operated by the Electrical Research Institute (Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas (IIE)). The results from the validation show that the estimation of the parameters required by air pollution models from routinely available data from Mexico meteorological stations is feasible and therefore let us take full advantage of the use of air pollution models. As an application example of the software library developed, the building of a meteorological processor for a specific air pollution model (CALPUFF) is described. The big advantage the library represents is evident from this example. [Espanol] Los modelos de dispersion de contaminantes constituyen una herramienta

  8. A proof-of-concept for linking the global meteorological model, MPAS-A with the air quality model, CMAQ

    Science.gov (United States)

    Researchers who perform air quality modeling studies usually do so on a regional scale. Typically, the boundary conditions are generated by another model which might have a different chemical mechanism, spatial resolution, and/or map projection. Hence, a necessary conversion/inte...

  9. A joint modelling exercise designed to assess the respective impact of emission changes and meteorological variability on the observed air quality trends in major urban hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colette, Augustin; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Dangiola, Ariela; D'Isidoro, Massimo; Gauss, Michael; Granier, Claire; Hodnebrog, Øivind; Jakobs, Hermann; Kanakidou, Maria; Khokhar, Fahim; Law, Kathy; Maurizi, Alberto; Meleux, Frederik; Memmesheimer, Michael; Nyiri, Agnes; Rouil, Laurence; Stordal, Frode; Tampieri, Francesco

    2010-05-01

    With the growth of urban agglomerations, assessing the drivers of variability of air quality in and around the main anthropogenic emission hotspots has become a major societal concern as well as a scientific challenge. These drivers include emission changes and meteorological variability; both of them can be investigated by means of numerical modelling of trends over the past few years. A collaborative effort has been developed in the framework of the CityZen European project to address this question. Several chemistry and transport models (CTMs) are deployed in this activity: four regional models (BOLCHEM, CHIMERE, EMEP and EURAD) and three global models (CTM2, MOZART, and TM4). The period from 1998 to 2007 has been selected for the historic reconstruction. The focus for the present preliminary presentation is Europe. A consistent set of emissions is used by all partners (EMEP for the European domain and IPCC-AR5 beyond) while a variety of meteorological forcing is used to gain robustness in the ensemble spread amongst models. The results of this experiment will be investigated to address the following questions: - Is the envelope of models able to reproduce the observed trends of the key chemical constituents? - How the variability amongst models changes in time and space and what does it tell us about the processes driving the observed trends? - Did chemical regimes and aerosol formation processes changed in selected hotspots? Answering the above questions will contribute to fulfil the ultimate goal of the present study: distinguishing the respective contribution of meteorological variability and emissions changes on air quality trends in major anthropogenic emissions hotspots.

  10. Evaluation of land surface model representation of phenology: an analysis of model runs submitted to the NACP Interim Site Synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, A. D.; Nacp Interim Site Synthesis Participants

    2010-12-01

    Phenology represents a critical intersection point between organisms and their growth environment. It is for this reason that phenology is a sensitive and robust integrator of the biological impacts of year-to-year climate variability and longer-term climate change on natural systems. However, it is perhaps equally important that phenology, by controlling the seasonal activity of vegetation on the land surface, plays a fundamental role in regulating ecosystem processes, competitive interactions, and feedbacks to the climate system. Unfortunately, the phenological sub-models implemented in most state-of-the-art ecosystem models and land surface schemes are overly simplified. We quantified model errors in the representation of the seasonal cycles of leaf area index (LAI), gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP), and net ecosystem exchange of CO2. Our analysis was based on site-level model runs (14 different models) submitted to the North American Carbon Program (NACP) Interim Synthesis, and long-term measurements from 10 forested (5 evergreen conifer, 5 deciduous broadleaf) sites within the AmeriFlux and Fluxnet-Canada networks. Model predictions of the seasonality of LAI and GEP were unacceptable, particularly in spring, and especially for deciduous forests. This is despite an historical emphasis on deciduous forest phenology, and the perception that controls on spring phenology are better understood than autumn phenology. Errors of up to 25 days in predicting “spring onset” transition dates were common, and errors of up to 50 days were observed. For deciduous sites, virtually every model was biased towards spring onset being too early, and autumn senescence being too late. Thus, models predicted growing seasons that were far too long for deciduous forests. For most models, errors in the seasonal representation of deciduous forest LAI were highly correlated with errors in the seasonality of both GPP and NEE, indicating the importance of getting the underlying

  11. Meteorological Monitoring Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hancock, H.A. Jr.; Parker, M.J.; Addis, R.P.

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this technical report is to provide a comprehensive, detailed overview of the meteorological monitoring program at the Savannah River Site (SRS) near Aiken, South Carolina. The principle function of the program is to provide current, accurate meteorological data as input for calculating the transport and diffusion of any unplanned release of an atmospheric pollutant. The report is recommended for meteorologists, technicians, or any personnel who require an in-depth understanding of the meteorological monitoring program

  12. Meteorological Monitoring Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hancock, H.A. Jr. [ed.; Parker, M.J.; Addis, R.P.

    1994-09-01

    The purpose of this technical report is to provide a comprehensive, detailed overview of the meteorological monitoring program at the Savannah River Site (SRS) near Aiken, South Carolina. The principle function of the program is to provide current, accurate meteorological data as input for calculating the transport and diffusion of any unplanned release of an atmospheric pollutant. The report is recommended for meteorologists, technicians, or any personnel who require an in-depth understanding of the meteorological monitoring program.

  13. Modeling the milling tool wear by using an evolutionary SVM-based model from milling runs experimental data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieto, Paulino José García; García-Gonzalo, Esperanza; Vilán, José Antonio Vilán; Robleda, Abraham Segade

    2015-12-01

    The main aim of this research work is to build a new practical hybrid regression model to predict the milling tool wear in a regular cut as well as entry cut and exit cut of a milling tool. The model was based on Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) in combination with support vector machines (SVMs). This optimization mechanism involved kernel parameter setting in the SVM training procedure, which significantly influences the regression accuracy. Bearing this in mind, a PSO-SVM-based model, which is based on the statistical learning theory, was successfully used here to predict the milling tool flank wear (output variable) as a function of the following input variables: the time duration of experiment, depth of cut, feed, type of material, etc. To accomplish the objective of this study, the experimental dataset represents experiments from runs on a milling machine under various operating conditions. In this way, data sampled by three different types of sensors (acoustic emission sensor, vibration sensor and current sensor) were acquired at several positions. A second aim is to determine the factors with the greatest bearing on the milling tool flank wear with a view to proposing milling machine's improvements. Firstly, this hybrid PSO-SVM-based regression model captures the main perception of statistical learning theory in order to obtain a good prediction of the dependence among the flank wear (output variable) and input variables (time, depth of cut, feed, etc.). Indeed, regression with optimal hyperparameters was performed and a determination coefficient of 0.95 was obtained. The agreement of this model with experimental data confirmed its good performance. Secondly, the main advantages of this PSO-SVM-based model are its capacity to produce a simple, easy-to-interpret model, its ability to estimate the contributions of the input variables, and its computational efficiency. Finally, the main conclusions of this study are exposed.

  14. Lectures in Micro Meteorology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Søren Ejling

    This report contains the notes from my lectures on Micro scale meteorology at the Geophysics Department of the Niels Bohr Institute of Copenhagen University. In the period 1993-2012, I was responsible for this course at the University. At the start of the course, I decided that the text books...... available in meteorology at that time did not include enough of the special flavor of micro meteorology that characterized the work of the meteorology group at Risø (presently of the Institute of wind energy of the Danish Technical University). This work was focused on Boundary layer flows and turbulence...

  15. From control to causation: Validating a 'complex systems model' of running-related injury development and prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulme, A; Salmon, P M; Nielsen, R O; Read, G J M; Finch, C F

    2017-11-01

    There is a need for an ecological and complex systems approach for better understanding the development and prevention of running-related injury (RRI). In a previous article, we proposed a prototype model of the Australian recreational distance running system which was based on the Systems Theoretic Accident Mapping and Processes (STAMP) method. That model included the influence of political, organisational, managerial, and sociocultural determinants alongside individual-level factors in relation to RRI development. The purpose of this study was to validate that prototype model by drawing on the expertise of both systems thinking and distance running experts. This study used a modified Delphi technique involving a series of online surveys (December 2016- March 2017). The initial survey was divided into four sections containing a total of seven questions pertaining to different features associated with the prototype model. Consensus in opinion about the validity of the prototype model was reached when the number of experts who agreed or disagreed with survey statement was ≥75% of the total number of respondents. A total of two Delphi rounds was needed to validate the prototype model. Out of a total of 51 experts who were initially contacted, 50.9% (n = 26) completed the first round of the Delphi, and 92.3% (n = 24) of those in the first round participated in the second. Most of the 24 full participants considered themselves to be a running expert (66.7%), and approximately a third indicated their expertise as a systems thinker (33.3%). After the second round, 91.7% of the experts agreed that the prototype model was a valid description of the Australian distance running system. This is the first study to formally examine the development and prevention of RRI from an ecological and complex systems perspective. The validated model of the Australian distance running system facilitates theoretical advancement in terms of identifying practical system

  16. High resolution modelling results of the wind flow over Canary Islands during the meteorological situation of the extratropical storm Delta (28–30 November 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Baldasano

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available On 28–29 November 2005 an extratropical storm affected the Canary Islands causing significant damage related to high average wind speeds and intense gusts over some islands of the archipelago. Delta was the twenty-sixth tropical or subtropical storm of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. It represents an unusual meteorological phenomenon for that region, and its impacts were underestimated by the different operational meteorological forecasts during the previous days of the arrival of the low near Canary Islands. The aim of this study is to reproduce the local effects of the flow that were observed over the Canary Islands during the travel of the Delta storm near the region using high-resolution mesoscale meteorological simulations. The Advanced Research Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW is applied at 9, 3 and 1 km horizontal resolution using ECMWF forecasts as initial and boundary conditions. The high-resolution simulation will outline the main features that contributed to the high wind speeds observed in the archipelago. Variations in vertical static stability, vertical windshear and the intense synoptic winds of the southwestern part of Delta with a warm core at 850 hPa were the main characteristics that contributed to the development and amplification of intense gravity waves while the large-scale flow interacted with the complex topography of the islands.

  17. Studying the effect of meteorological factors on the SO2 and PM10 pollution levels with refined versions of the SARIMA model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voynikova, D. S., E-mail: desi-sl2000@yahoo.com; Gocheva-Ilieva, S. G., E-mail: snegocheva@yahoo.com; Ivanov, A. V., E-mail: aivanov-99@yahoo.com [Department of Applied Mathematics and Modeling, Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics, Paisii Hilendarski University of Plovdiv, 24 Tzar Assen str., 4000 Plovdiv (Bulgaria); Iliev, I. P., E-mail: iliev55@abv.bg [Department of Physics, Technical University – Plovdiv, 25 Tzanko Djusstabanov str., 4000 Plovdiv (Bulgaria)

    2015-10-28

    Numerous time series methods are used in environmental sciences allowing the detailed investigation of air pollution processes. The goal of this study is to present the empirical analysis of various aspects of stochastic modeling and in particular the ARIMA/SARIMA methods. The subject of investigation is air pollution in the town of Kardzhali, Bulgaria with 2 problematic pollutants – sulfur dioxide (SO2) and particulate matter (PM10). Various SARIMA Transfer Function models are built taking into account meteorological factors, data transformations and the use of different horizons selected to predict future levels of concentrations of the pollutants.

  18. Dezenflasyon Sürecinde Türkiye’de Enflasyonun Uzun ve Kısa Dönem Dinamiklerinin Modellenmesi(Modelling The Long Run and The Short Run Dynamics of Inflation In The Disinflation Process In Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Macide ÇİÇEK

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it is employed that Expectations-Augmented Philips Curve Model to investigate the link between inflation and unit labor costs, output gap (proxy for demand shocks, real exchange rate (proxy for supply shocks and price expectations for Turkey using monthly data from 2000:01 to 2004:12. The methodology employed in this paper uses unit root test, Johansen Cointegration Test to examine the existence of possible long run relationships among the variables included in the model and a single equation error correction model for the inflation equation estimated by OLS to examine the short run dynamics of inflation, respectively. It is find that in the long run, mark-up behaviour of output prices over unit labor costs is the main cause of inflation, real exchange rate has a rather big impact on reduced inflation and demand shocks don’t led to an increase in prices. The short run dynamics of the inflation equation indicate that supply shocks are the determinant of inflation in the short run. It is also find that exchange rate is the variable that trigger an inflation adjustment the most rapidly in the short run.

  19. Fire and forest meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    SA Ferguson; T.J. Brown; M. Flannigan

    2005-01-01

    The American Meteorological Society symposia series on Fire and Forest Meteorology provides biennial forums for atmospheric and fire scientists to introduce and discuss the latest and most relevant research on weather, climate and fire. This special issue highlights significant work that was presented at the Fifth Symposium in Orlando, Florida during 16-20 November...

  20. Meteorological satellite systems

    CERN Document Server

    Tan, Su-Yin

    2014-01-01

    Meteorological Satellite Systems” is a primer on weather satellites and their Earth applications. This book reviews historic developments and recent technological advancements in GEO and polar orbiting meteorological satellites. It explores the evolution of these remote sensing technologies and their capabilities to monitor short- and long-term changes in weather patterns in response to climate change. Satellites developed by various countries, such as U.S. meteorological satellites, EUMETSAT, and Russian, Chinese, Japanese and Indian satellite platforms are reviewed. This book also discusses international efforts to coordinate meteorological remote sensing data collection and sharing. This title provides a ready and quick reference for information about meteorological satellites. It serves as a useful tool for a broad audience that includes students, academics, private consultants, engineers, scientists, and teachers.

  1. Wind Power Meteorology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundtang Petersen, Erik; Mortensen, Niels Gylling; Landberg, Lars

    Wind power meteorology has evolved as an applied science, firmly founded on boundary-layer meteorology, but with strong links to climatology and geography. It concerns itself with three main areas: siting of wind turbines, regional wind resource assessment, and short-term prediction of the wind...... resource. The history, status and perspectives of wind power meteorology are presented, with emphasis on physical considerations and on its practical application. Following a global view of the wind resource, the elements of boundary layer meteorology which are most important for wind energy are reviewed......: wind profiles and shear, turbulence and gust, and extreme winds. The data used in wind power meteorology stem mainly from three sources: onsite wind measurements, the synoptic networks, and the re-analysis projects. Wind climate analysis, wind resource estimation and siting further require a detailed...

  2. Dual-use tools and systematics-aware analysis workflows in the ATLAS Run-II analysis model

    CERN Document Server

    FARRELL, Steven; The ATLAS collaboration

    2015-01-01

    The ATLAS analysis model has been overhauled for the upcoming run of data collection in 2015 at 13 TeV. One key component of this upgrade was the Event Data Model (EDM), which now allows for greater flexibility in the choice of analysis software framework and provides powerful new features that can be exploited by analysis software tools. A second key component of the upgrade is the introduction of a dual-use tool technology, which provides abstract interfaces for analysis software tools to run in either the Athena framework or a ROOT-based framework. The tool interfaces, including a new interface for handling systematic uncertainties, have been standardized for the development of improved analysis workflows and consolidation of high-level analysis tools. This presentation will cover the details of the dual-use tool functionality, the systematics interface, and how these features fit into a centrally supported analysis environment.

  3. Dual-use tools and systematics-aware analysis workflows in the ATLAS Run-2 analysis model

    CERN Document Server

    FARRELL, Steven; The ATLAS collaboration; Calafiura, Paolo; Delsart, Pierre-Antoine; Elsing, Markus; Koeneke, Karsten; Krasznahorkay, Attila; Krumnack, Nils; Lancon, Eric; Lavrijsen, Wim; Laycock, Paul; Lei, Xiaowen; Strandberg, Sara Kristina; Verkerke, Wouter; Vivarelli, Iacopo; Woudstra, Martin

    2015-01-01

    The ATLAS analysis model has been overhauled for the upcoming run of data collection in 2015 at 13 TeV. One key component of this upgrade was the Event Data Model (EDM), which now allows for greater flexibility in the choice of analysis software framework and provides powerful new features that can be exploited by analysis software tools. A second key component of the upgrade is the introduction of a dual-use tool technology, which provides abstract interfaces for analysis software tools to run in either the Athena framework or a ROOT-based framework. The tool interfaces, including a new interface for handling systematic uncertainties, have been standardized for the development of improved analysis workflows and consolidation of high-level analysis tools. This paper will cover the details of the dual-use tool functionality, the systematics interface, and how these features fit into a centrally supported analysis environment.

  4. Evaluation of meteorological fields generated by a prognostic mesoscale model using data collected during the 1993 GMAQS/COAST field study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lolk, N.K.; Douglas, S.G.

    1996-01-01

    In 1993, the US Interior Department's Minerals Management Service (MMS) sponsored the Gulf of Mexico Air Quality Study (GMAQS). Its purpose was to assess potential impacts of offshore petrochemical development on ozone concentrations in nonattainment areas in the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast region as mandated by the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. The GMAQS comprised data collection, data analysis, and applications of an advanced photochemical air quality model, the variable-grid Urban Airshed Model (UAM-V), and a prognostic mesoscale meteorological model (SAIMM -- Systems Applications International Mesoscale Model) to simulate two ozone episodes that were captured during the summer field study. The primary purpose of this paper is to evaluate the SAIMM-simulated meteorological fields using graphical analysis that utilize the comprehensive GMAQS/COAST (Gulf of Mexico Air Quality Study/Coastal Oxidant Assessment for Southeast Texas) database and to demonstrate the ability of the SAIMM to simulate the day-to-day variations in the evolution and structure of the gulf breeze and the mixed layer

  5. Dark Matter Benchmark Models for Early LHC Run-2 Searches: Report of the ATLAS/CMS Dark Matter Forum

    CERN Document Server

    Abercrombie, Daniel; Akilli, Ece; Alcaraz Maestre, Juan; Allen, Brandon; Alvarez Gonzalez, Barbara; Andrea, Jeremy; Arbey, Alexandre; Azuelos, Georges; Azzi, Patrizia; Backovic, Mihailo; Bai, Yang; Banerjee, Swagato; Beacham, James; Belyaev, Alexander; Boveia, Antonio; Brennan, Amelia Jean; Buchmueller, Oliver; Buckley, Matthew R.; Busoni, Giorgio; Buttignol, Michael; Cacciapaglia, Giacomo; Caputo, Regina; Carpenter, Linda; Filipe Castro, Nuno; Gomez Ceballos, Guillelmo; Cheng, Yangyang; Chou, John Paul; Cortes Gonzalez, Arely; Cowden, Chris; D'Eramo, Francesco; De Cosa, Annapaola; De Gruttola, Michele; De Roeck, Albert; De Simone, Andrea; Deandrea, Aldo; Demiragli, Zeynep; DiFranzo, Anthony; Doglioni, Caterina; du Pree, Tristan; Erbacher, Robin; Erdmann, Johannes; Fischer, Cora; Flaecher, Henning; Fox, Patrick J.; Fuks, Benjamin; Genest, Marie-Helene; Gomber, Bhawna; Goudelis, Andreas; Gramling, Johanna; Gunion, John; Hahn, Kristian; Haisch, Ulrich; Harnik, Roni; Harris, Philip C.; Hoepfner, Kerstin; Hoh, Siew Yan; Hsu, Dylan George; Hsu, Shih-Chieh; Iiyama, Yutaro; Ippolito, Valerio; Jacques, Thomas; Ju, Xiangyang; Kahlhoefer, Felix; Kalogeropoulos, Alexis; Kaplan, Laser Seymour; Kashif, Lashkar; Khoze, Valentin V.; Khurana, Raman; Kotov, Khristian; Kovalskyi, Dmytro; Kulkarni, Suchita; Kunori, Shuichi; Kutzner, Viktor; Lee, Hyun Min; Lee, Sung-Won; Liew, Seng Pei; Lin, Tongyan; Lowette, Steven; Madar, Romain; Malik, Sarah; Maltoni, Fabio; Martinez Perez, Mario; Mattelaer, Olivier; Mawatari, Kentarou; McCabe, Christopher; Megy, Theo; Morgante, Enrico; Mrenna, Stephen; Narayanan, Siddharth M.; Nelson, Andy; Novaes, Sergio F.; Padeken, Klaas Ole; Pani, Priscilla; Papucci, Michele; Paulini, Manfred; Paus, Christoph; Pazzini, Jacopo; Penning, Bjorn; Peskin, Michael E.; Pinna, Deborah; Procura, Massimiliano; Qazi, Shamona F.; Racco, Davide; Re, Emanuele; Riotto, Antonio; Rizzo, Thomas G.; Roehrig, Rainer; Salek, David; Sanchez Pineda, Arturo; Sarkar, Subir; Schmidt, Alexander; Schramm, Steven Randolph; Shepherd, William; Singh, Gurpreet; Soffi, Livia; Srimanobhas, Norraphat; Sung, Kevin; Tait, Tim M.P.; Theveneaux-Pelzer, Timothee; Thomas, Marc; Tosi, Mia; Trocino, Daniele; Undleeb, Sonaina; Vichi, Alessandro; Wang, Fuquan; Wang, Lian-Tao; Wang, Ren-Jie; Whallon, Nikola; Worm, Steven; Wu, Mengqing; Wu, Sau Lan; Yang, Hongtao; Yang, Yong; Yu, Shin-Shan; Zaldivar, Bryan; Zanetti, Marco; Zhang, Zhiqing; Zucchetta, Alberto

    2015-01-01

    This document is the final report of the ATLAS-CMS Dark Matter Forum, a forum organized by the ATLAS and CMS collaborations with the participation of experts on theories of Dark Matter, to select a minimal basis set of dark matter simplified models that should support the design of the early LHC Run-2 searches. A prioritized, compact set of benchmark models is proposed, accompanied by studies of the parameter space of these models and a repository of generator implementations. This report also addresses how to apply the Effective Field Theory formalism for collider searches and present the results of such interpretations.

  6. A possible model of growth and production of durum wheat (Triticum durum Desf.) in relation to meteorological parameters in Mediterranean environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuttobene, R.; Cosentino, S.; Cavallaro, V.

    1993-01-01

    This research aimed at studying a simulation model to describe the growth and yield of durum wheat in relation to meterological parameters in Mediterranean environment, using data of trials carried out by the Institute of Agronomy and filed crops of the University of Catania in two years and three localities of the Eastern Sicily. The model is divided into four modules which determine separately main phenological phases, leaf area index, total biomass and yield and soil water balance. The model uses air maximum and minimum temperature, photoperiod, solar radiation, rainfall and evaporation from a class A pan. Simulation carried out on the data of the trials showed a good interpretation of the variability of the actual data in relation to meteorological parameters. The model could simulate the variation due to plant density and sowing date. The model should be verified using independent data [it

  7. Surface meteorology and Solar Energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stackhouse, Paul W. (Principal Investigator)

    The Release 5.1 Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) data contains parameters formulated for assessing and designing renewable energy systems. Parameters fall under 11 categories including: Solar cooking, solar thermal applications, solar geometry, tilted solar panels, energy storage systems, surplus product storage systems, cloud information, temperature, wind, other meteorological factors, and supporting information. This latest release contains new parameters based on recommendations by the renewable energy industry and it is more accurate than previous releases. On-line plotting capabilities allow quick evaluation of potential renewable energy projects for any region of the world. The SSE data set is formulated from NASA satellite- and reanalysis-derived insolation and meteorological data for the 10-year period July 1983 through June 1993. Results are provided for 1 degree latitude by 1 degree longitude grid cells over the globe. Average daily and monthly measurements for 1195 World Radiation Data Centre ground sites are also available. [Mission Objectives] The SSE project contains insolation and meteorology data intended to aid in the development of renewable energy systems. Collaboration between SSE and technology industries such as the Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables ( HOMER ) may aid in designing electric power systems that employ some combination of wind turbines, photovoltaic panels, or diesel generators to produce electricity. [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1983-07-01; Stop_Date=1993-06-30] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180].

  8. Up and running with AutoCAD 2014 2D and 3D drawing and modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Gindis, Elliot

    2013-01-01

    Get ""Up and Running"" with AutoCAD using Gindis's combination of step-by-step instruction, examples, and insightful explanations. The emphasis from the beginning is on core concepts and practical application of AutoCAD in architecture, engineering and design. Equally useful in instructor-led classroom training, self-study, or as a professional reference, the book is written with the user in mind by a long-time AutoCAD professional and instructor based on what works in the industry and the classroom. Strips away complexities, both real and perceived, and reduces AutoCAD t

  9. Legionnaires' disease from a cooling tower in a community outbreak in Lidköping, Sweden- epidemiological, environmental and microbiological investigation supported by meteorological modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulleryd, Peter; Hugosson, Anna; Allestam, Görel; Bernander, Sverker; Claesson, Berndt E B; Eilertz, Ingrid; Hagaeus, Anne-Christine; Hjorth, Martin; Johansson, Agneta; de Jong, Birgitta; Lindqvist, Anna; Nolskog, Peter; Svensson, Nils

    2012-11-21

    An outbreak of Legionnaires' Disease took place in the Swedish town Lidköping on Lake Vänern in August 2004 and the number of pneumonia cases at the local hospital increased markedly. As soon as the first patients were diagnosed, health care providers were informed and an outbreak investigation was launched. Classical epidemiological investigation, diagnostic tests, environmental analyses, epidemiological typing and meteorological methods. Thirty-two cases were found. The median age was 62 years (range 36 - 88) and 22 (69%) were males. No common indoor exposure was found. Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 was found at two industries, each with two cooling towers. In one cooling tower exceptionally high concentrations, 1.2 × 109 cfu/L, were found. Smaller amounts were also found in the other tower of the first industry and in one tower of the second plant. Sero- and genotyping of isolated L. pneumophila serogroup 1 from three patients and epidemiologically suspected environmental strains supported the cooling tower with the high concentration as the source. In all, two L. pneumophila strains were isolated from three culture confirmed cases and both these strains were detected in the cooling tower, but one strain in another cooling tower as well. Meteorological modelling demonstrated probable spread from the most suspected cooling tower towards the town centre and the precise location of four cases that were stray visitors to Lidköping. Classical epidemiological, environmental and microbiological investigation of an LD outbreak can be supported by meteorological modelling methods.The broad competence and cooperation capabilities in the investigation team from different authorities were of paramount importance in stopping this outbreak.

  10. Legionnaires’ disease from a cooling tower in a community outbreak in Lidköping, Sweden- epidemiological, environmental and microbiological investigation supported by meteorological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background An outbreak of Legionnaires’ Disease took place in the Swedish town Lidköping on Lake Vänern in August 2004 and the number of pneumonia cases at the local hospital increased markedly. As soon as the first patients were diagnosed, health care providers were informed and an outbreak investigation was launched. Methods Classical epidemiological investigation, diagnostic tests, environmental analyses, epidemiological typing and meteorological methods. Results Thirty-two cases were found. The median age was 62 years (range 36 – 88) and 22 (69%) were males. No common indoor exposure was found. Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 was found at two industries, each with two cooling towers. In one cooling tower exceptionally high concentrations, 1.2 × 109 cfu/L, were found. Smaller amounts were also found in the other tower of the first industry and in one tower of the second plant. Sero- and genotyping of isolated L. pneumophila serogroup 1 from three patients and epidemiologically suspected environmental strains supported the cooling tower with the high concentration as the source. In all, two L. pneumophila strains were isolated from three culture confirmed cases and both these strains were detected in the cooling tower, but one strain in another cooling tower as well. Meteorological modelling demonstrated probable spread from the most suspected cooling tower towards the town centre and the precise location of four cases that were stray visitors to Lidköping. Conclusions Classical epidemiological, environmental and microbiological investigation of an LD outbreak can be supported by meteorological modelling methods. The broad competence and cooperation capabilities in the investigation team from different authorities were of paramount importance in stopping this outbreak. PMID:23171054

  11. Legionnaires’ disease from a cooling tower in a community outbreak in Lidköping, Sweden- epidemiological, environmental and microbiological investigation supported by meteorological modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulleryd Peter

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An outbreak of Legionnaires’ Disease took place in the Swedish town Lidköping on Lake Vänern in August 2004 and the number of pneumonia cases at the local hospital increased markedly. As soon as the first patients were diagnosed, health care providers were informed and an outbreak investigation was launched. Methods Classical epidemiological investigation, diagnostic tests, environmental analyses, epidemiological typing and meteorological methods. Results Thirty-two cases were found. The median age was 62 years (range 36 – 88 and 22 (69% were males. No common indoor exposure was found. Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 was found at two industries, each with two cooling towers. In one cooling tower exceptionally high concentrations, 1.2 × 109 cfu/L, were found. Smaller amounts were also found in the other tower of the first industry and in one tower of the second plant. Sero- and genotyping of isolated L. pneumophila serogroup 1 from three patients and epidemiologically suspected environmental strains supported the cooling tower with the high concentration as the source. In all, two L. pneumophila strains were isolated from three culture confirmed cases and both these strains were detected in the cooling tower, but one strain in another cooling tower as well. Meteorological modelling demonstrated probable spread from the most suspected cooling tower towards the town centre and the precise location of four cases that were stray visitors to Lidköping. Conclusions Classical epidemiological, environmental and microbiological investigation of an LD outbreak can be supported by meteorological modelling methods. The broad competence and cooperation capabilities in the investigation team from different authorities were of paramount importance in stopping this outbreak.

  12. Sensitivity of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ model v4.7 results for the eastern United States to MM5 and WRF meteorological drivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. W. Appel

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a comparison of the operational performances of two Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ model v4.7 simulations that utilize input data from the 5th-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5 and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF meteorological models. Two sets of CMAQ model simulations were performed for January and August 2006. One set utilized MM5 meteorology (MM5-CMAQ and the other utilized WRF meteorology (WRF-CMAQ, while all other model inputs and options were kept the same. For January, predicted ozone (O3 mixing ratios were higher in the Southeast and lower Mid-west regions in the WRF-CMAQ simulation, resulting in slightly higher bias and error as compared to the MM5-CMAQ simulations. The higher predicted O3 mixing ratios are attributed to less dry deposition of O3 in the WRF-CMAQ simulation due to differences in the calculation of the vegetation fraction between the MM5 and WRF models. The WRF-CMAQ results showed better performance for particulate sulfate (SO42−, similar performance for nitrate (NO3, and slightly worse performance for nitric acid (HNO3, total carbon (TC and total fine particulate (PM2.5 mass than the corresponding MM5-CMAQ results. For August, predictions of O3 were notably higher in the WRF-CMAQ simulation, particularly in the southern United States, resulting in increased model bias. Concentrations of predicted particulate SO42− were lower in the region surrounding the Ohio Valley and higher along the Gulf of Mexico in the WRF-CMAQ simulation, contributing to poorer model performance. The primary causes of the differences in the MM5-CMAQ and WRF-CMAQ simulations appear to be due to differences in the calculation of wind speed, planetary boundary layer height, cloud cover and the friction velocity (u in the MM5 and WRF model simulations, while

  13. Can the combined use of an ensemble based modelling approach and the analysis of measured meteorological trends lead to increased confidence in climate change impact assessments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gädeke, Anne; Koch, Hagen; Pohle, Ina; Grünewald, Uwe

    2014-05-01

    In anthropogenically heavily impacted river catchments, such as the Lusatian river catchments of Spree and Schwarze Elster (Germany), the robust assessment of possible impacts of climate change on the regional water resources is of high relevance for the development and implementation of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. Large uncertainties inherent in future climate projections may, however, reduce the willingness of regional stakeholder to develop and implement suitable adaptation strategies to climate change. This study provides an overview of different possibilities to consider uncertainties in climate change impact assessments by means of (1) an ensemble based modelling approach and (2) the incorporation of measured and simulated meteorological trends. The ensemble based modelling approach consists of the meteorological output of four climate downscaling approaches (DAs) (two dynamical and two statistical DAs (113 realisations in total)), which drive different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (HBV-light and WaSiM-ETH). As study area serve three near natural subcatchments of the Spree and Schwarze Elster river catchments. The objective of incorporating measured meteorological trends into the analysis was twofold: measured trends can (i) serve as a mean to validate the results of the DAs and (ii) be regarded as harbinger for the future direction of change. Moreover, regional stakeholders seem to have more trust in measurements than in modelling results. In order to evaluate the nature of the trends, both gradual (Mann-Kendall test) and step changes (Pettitt test) are considered as well as both temporal and spatial correlations in the data. The results of the ensemble based modelling chain show that depending on the type (dynamical or statistical) of DA used, opposing trends in precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and discharge are simulated in the scenario period (2031-2060). While the statistical DAs

  14. Modelling the water and heat balances of the Mediterranean Sea using a two-basin model and available meteorological, hydrological, and ocean data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Shaltout

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a two-basin model of the water and heat balances of the Western and Eastern Mediterranean sub-basins (WMB and EMB, respectively over the 1958–2010 period using available meteorological and hydrological data. The results indicate that the simulated temperature and salinity in both studied Mediterranean sub-basins closely follow the reanalysed data. In addition, simulated surface water in the EMB had a higher mean temperature (by approximately 1.6°C and was more saline (by approximately 0.87 g kg−1 than in the WMB over the studied period. The net evaporation over the EMB (1.52 mm day−1 was approximately 1.7 times greater than over the WMB (0.88 mm day−1. The water balance of the Mediterranean Sea was controlled by net inflow through the Gibraltar Strait and Sicily Channel, the net evaporation rate and freshwater input. The heat balance simulations indicated that the heat loss from the water body was nearly balanced by the solar radiation to the water body, resulting in a net export (import of approximately 13 (11 W m−2 of heat from the WMB (to the EMB.

  15. Towards a complex systems approach in sports injury research: simulating running-related injury development with agent-based modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulme, Adam; Thompson, Jason; Nielsen, Rasmus Oestergaard; Read, Gemma J M; Salmon, Paul M

    2018-06-18

    There have been recent calls for the application of the complex systems approach in sports injury research. However, beyond theoretical description and static models of complexity, little progress has been made towards formalising this approach in way that is practical to sports injury scientists and clinicians. Therefore, our objective was to use a computational modelling method and develop a dynamic simulation in sports injury research. Agent-based modelling (ABM) was used to model the occurrence of sports injury in a synthetic athlete population. The ABM was developed based on sports injury causal frameworks and was applied in the context of distance running-related injury (RRI). Using the acute:chronic workload ratio (ACWR), we simulated the dynamic relationship between changes in weekly running distance and RRI through the manipulation of various 'athlete management tools'. The findings confirmed that building weekly running distances over time, even within the reported ACWR 'sweet spot', will eventually result in RRI as athletes reach and surpass their individual physical workload limits. Introducing training-related error into the simulation and the modelling of a 'hard ceiling' dynamic resulted in a higher RRI incidence proportion across the population at higher absolute workloads. The presented simulation offers a practical starting point to further apply more sophisticated computational models that can account for the complex nature of sports injury aetiology. Alongside traditional forms of scientific inquiry, the use of ABM and other simulation-based techniques could be considered as a complementary and alternative methodological approach in sports injury research. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  16. Running Linux

    CERN Document Server

    Dalheimer, Matthias Kalle

    2006-01-01

    The fifth edition of Running Linux is greatly expanded, reflecting the maturity of the operating system and the teeming wealth of software available for it. Hot consumer topics such as audio and video playback applications, groupware functionality, and spam filtering are covered, along with the basics in configuration and management that always made the book popular.

  17. RUN COORDINATION

    CERN Multimedia

    C. Delaere

    2013-01-01

    Since the LHC ceased operations in February, a lot has been going on at Point 5, and Run Coordination continues to monitor closely the advance of maintenance and upgrade activities. In the last months, the Pixel detector was extracted and is now stored in the pixel lab in SX5; the beam pipe has been removed and ME1/1 removal has started. We regained access to the vactank and some work on the RBX of HB has started. Since mid-June, electricity and cooling are back in S1 and S2, allowing us to turn equipment back on, at least during the day. 24/7 shifts are not foreseen in the next weeks, and safety tours are mandatory to keep equipment on overnight, but re-commissioning activities are slowly being resumed. Given the (slight) delays accumulated in LS1, it was decided to merge the two global runs initially foreseen into a single exercise during the week of 4 November 2013. The aim of the global run is to check that we can run (parts of) CMS after several months switched off, with the new VME PCs installed, th...

  18. US Marine Meteorological Journals

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This series consists of volumes entitled 'Meteorological Journal' (a regulation Navy-issue publication) which were to be completed by masters of merchant vessels...

  19. Meteorology and atomic energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1986-01-01

    The science of meteorology is useful in providing information that will be of assistance in the choice of favorable plant locations and in the evaluation of significant relations between meteorology and the design, construction, and operation of plant and facilities, especially those from which radioactive or toxic products could be released to the atmosphere. Under a continuing contract with the Atomic Energy Commission, the Weather Bureau has carried out this study. Some of the meteorological techniques that are available are summarized, and their applications to the possible atmospheric pollution deriving from the use of atomic energy are described. Methods and suggestions for the collection, analysis, and use of meteorological data are presented. Separate abstracts are included of 12 chapters in this publication for inclusion in the Energy Data Base

  20. Wave Meteorology and Soaring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, Scott

    2008-01-01

    This viewgraph document reviews some mountain wave turbulence and operational hazards while soaring. Maps, photographs, and satellite images of the meteorological phenomena are included. Additionally, photographs of aircraft that sustained mountain wave damage are provided.

  1. Climate and meteorology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoitink, D.J.

    1995-01-01

    This section of the 1994 Hanford Site Environmental Report summarizes the significant activities conducted in 1994 to monitor the meteorology and climatology of the site. Meteorological measurements are taken to support Hanford Site emergency preparedness and response, Hanford Site operations, and atmospheric dispersion calculations. Climatological data are collected to help plan weather-dependent activities and are used as a resource to assess the environmental effects of Hanford Site operations

  2. Climate and meteorology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoitink, D.J.

    1995-06-01

    This section of the 1994 Hanford Site Environmental Report summarizes the significant activities conducted in 1994 to monitor the meteorology and climatology of the site. Meteorological measurements are taken to support Hanford Site emergency preparedness and response, Hanford Site operations, and atmospheric dispersion calculations. Climatological data are collected to help plan weather-dependent activities and are used as a resource to assess the environmental effects of Hanford Site operations.

  3. REAL STOCK PRICES AND THE LONG-RUN MONEY DEMAND FUNCTION IN MALAYSIA: Evidence from Error Correction Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naziruddin Abdullah

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available This study adopts the error correction model to empirically investigate the role of real stock prices in the long run-money demand in the Malaysian financial or money market for the period 1977: Q1-1997: Q2. Specifically, an attempt is made to check whether the real narrow money (M1/P is cointegrated with the selected variables like industrial production index (IPI, one-year T-Bill rates (TB12, and real stock prices (RSP. If a cointegration between the variables, i.e., the dependent and independent variables, is found to be the case, it may imply that there exists a long-run co-movement among these variables in the Malaysian money market. From the empirical results it is found that the cointegration between money demand and real stock prices (RSP is positive, implying that in the long run there is a positive association between real stock prices (RSP and demand for real narrow money (M1/P. The policy implication that can be extracted from this study is that an increase in stock prices is likely to necessitate an expansionary monetary policy to prevent nominal income or inflation target from undershooting.

  4. The natural oscillation of two types of ENSO events based on analyses of CMIP5 model control runs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kang; Su, Jingzhi; Zhu, Congwen

    2014-07-01

    The eastern- and central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (EP- and CP-ENSO) have been found to be dominant in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and are characterized by interannual and decadal oscillation, respectively. In the present study, we defined the EP- and CP-ENSO modes by singular value decomposition (SVD) between SST and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalous fields. We evaluated the natural features of these two types of ENSO modes as simulated by the pre-industrial control runs of 20 models involved in phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The results suggested that all the models show good skill in simulating the SST and SLP anomaly dipolar structures for the EP-ENSO mode, but only 12 exhibit good performance in simulating the tripolar CP-ENSO modes. Wavelet analysis suggested that the ensemble principal components in these 12 models exhibit an interannual and multi-decadal oscillation related to the EP- and CP-ENSO, respectively. Since there are no changes in external forcing in the pre-industrial control runs, such a result implies that the decadal oscillation of CP-ENSO is possibly a result of natural climate variability rather than external forcing.

  5. Running Club

    CERN Multimedia

    Running Club

    2011-01-01

    The cross country running season has started well this autumn with two events: the traditional CERN Road Race organized by the Running Club, which took place on Tuesday 5th October, followed by the ‘Cross Interentreprises’, a team event at the Evaux Sports Center, which took place on Saturday 8th October. The participation at the CERN Road Race was slightly down on last year, with 65 runners, however the participants maintained the tradition of a competitive yet friendly atmosphere. An ample supply of refreshments before the prize giving was appreciated by all after the race. Many thanks to all the runners and volunteers who ensured another successful race. The results can be found here: https://espace.cern.ch/Running-Club/default.aspx CERN participated successfully at the cross interentreprises with very good results. The teams succeeded in obtaining 2nd and 6th place in the Mens category, and 2nd place in the Mixed category. Congratulations to all. See results here: http://www.c...

  6. RUN COORDINATION

    CERN Multimedia

    Christophe Delaere

    2013-01-01

    The focus of Run Coordination during LS1 is to monitor closely the advance of maintenance and upgrade activities, to smooth interactions between subsystems and to ensure that all are ready in time to resume operations in 2015 with a fully calibrated and understood detector. After electricity and cooling were restored to all equipment, at about the time of the last CMS week, recommissioning activities were resumed for all subsystems. On 7 October, DCS shifts began 24/7 to allow subsystems to remain on to facilitate operations. That culminated with the Global Run in November (GriN), which   took place as scheduled during the week of 4 November. The GriN has been the first centrally managed operation since the beginning of LS1, and involved all subdetectors but the Pixel Tracker presently in a lab upstairs. All nights were therefore dedicated to long stable runs with as many subdetectors as possible. Among the many achievements in that week, three items may be highlighted. First, the Strip...

  7. RUN COORDINATION

    CERN Multimedia

    M. Chamizo

    2012-01-01

      On 17th January, as soon as the services were restored after the technical stop, sub-systems started powering on. Since then, we have been running 24/7 with reduced shift crew — Shift Leader and DCS shifter — to allow sub-detectors to perform calibration, noise studies, test software upgrades, etc. On 15th and 16th February, we had the first Mid-Week Global Run (MWGR) with the participation of most sub-systems. The aim was to bring CMS back to operation and to ensure that we could run after the winter shutdown. All sub-systems participated in the readout and the trigger was provided by a fraction of the muon systems (CSC and the central RPC wheel). The calorimeter triggers were not available due to work on the optical link system. Initial checks of different distributions from Pixels, Strips, and CSC confirmed things look all right (signal/noise, number of tracks, phi distribution…). High-rate tests were done to test the new CSC firmware to cure the low efficiency ...

  8. A real case simulation of the air-borne effluent dispersion on a typical summer day under CDA scenario for PFBR using an advanced meteorological and dispersion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srinivas, C.V; Venkatesan, R.; Bagavath Singh, A.; Somayaji, K.M.

    2003-11-01

    Environmental concentrations and radioactive doses within and beyond the site boundary for the CDA situation of PFBR have been estimated using an Advanced Radiological Impact Prediction system for a real atmospheric situation on a typical summer day in the month of May 2003. The system consists of a meso-scale atmospheric prognostic model MM5 coupled with a random walk Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART for the simulation of transport, diffusion and deposition of radio nuclides. The details of the modeling system, its capabilities and various features are presented. The model has been validated for the simulated coastal atmospheric features of land-sea breeze, development of TIBL etc., with site and regional meteorological observations from IMD. Analysis of the dose distribution in a situation that corresponds to the atmospheric conditions on the chosen day shows that the doses for CDA through different pathways are 8 times less than the earlier estimations made according to regulatory requirements using the Gaussian Plume Model (GPM) approach. However for stack releases a higher dose than was reported earlier occurred beyond the site boundary at 2-4 km range under stable and fumigation conditions. The doses due to stack releases under these conditions maintained almost the same value in 3 to 10 km range and decreased there after. Deposition velocities computed from radionuclide species, wind speed, surface properties were 2 orders lower than the values used earlier and hence gave more realistic estimates of ground deposited activity. The study has enabled to simulate the more complex meteorological situation that actually is present at the site of interest and the associated spatial distribution of radiological impact around Kalpakkam. In order to draw meaningful conclusion that can be compared with regulatory estimates future study would be undertaken to simulate the dispersion under extreme meteorological situations which could possibly be worse than

  9. A low-order coupled chemistry meteorology model for testing online and offline data assimilation schemes: L95-GRS (v1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haussaire, J.-M.; Bocquet, M.

    2016-01-01

    Bocquet and Sakov (2013) introduced a low-order model based on the coupling of the chaotic Lorenz-95 (L95) model, which simulates winds along a mid-latitude circle, with the transport of a tracer species advected by this zonal wind field. This model, named L95-T, can serve as a playground for testing data assimilation schemes with an online model. Here, the tracer part of the model is extended to a reduced photochemistry module. This coupled chemistry meteorology model (CCMM), the L95-GRS (generic reaction set) model, mimics continental and transcontinental transport and the photochemistry of ozone, volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides. Its numerical implementation is described. The model is shown to reproduce the major physical and chemical processes being considered. L95-T and L95-GRS are specifically designed and useful for testing advanced data assimilation schemes, such as the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS), which combines the best of ensemble and variational methods. These models provide useful insights prior to the implementation of data assimilation methods into larger models. We illustrate their use with data assimilation schemes on preliminary yet instructive numerical experiments. In particular, online and offline data assimilation strategies can be conveniently tested and discussed with this low-order CCMM. The impact of observed chemical species concentrations on the wind field estimate can be quantitatively assessed. The impacts of the wind chaotic dynamics and of the chemical species non-chaotic but highly nonlinear dynamics on the data assimilation strategies are illustrated.

  10. A numerical study of tsunami wave impact and run-up on coastal cliffs using a CIP-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xizeng; Chen, Yong; Huang, Zhenhua; Hu, Zijun; Gao, Yangyang

    2017-05-01

    There is a general lack of understanding of tsunami wave interaction with complex geographies, especially the process of inundation. Numerical simulations are performed to understand the effects of several factors on tsunami wave impact and run-up in the presence of gentle submarine slopes and coastal cliffs, using an in-house code, a constrained interpolation profile (CIP)-based model. The model employs a high-order finite difference method, the CIP method, as the flow solver; utilizes a VOF-type method, the tangent of hyperbola for interface capturing/slope weighting (THINC/SW) scheme, to capture the free surface; and treats the solid boundary by an immersed boundary method. A series of incident waves are arranged to interact with varying coastal geographies. Numerical results are compared with experimental data and good agreement is obtained. The influences of gentle submarine slope, coastal cliff and incident wave height are discussed. It is found that the tsunami amplification factor varying with incident wave is affected by gradient of cliff slope, and the critical value is about 45°. The run-up on a toe-erosion cliff is smaller than that on a normal cliff. The run-up is also related to the length of a gentle submarine slope with a critical value of about 2.292 m in the present model for most cases. The impact pressure on the cliff is extremely large and concentrated, and the backflow effect is non-negligible. Results of our work are highly precise and helpful in inverting tsunami source and forecasting disaster.

  11. Sparticle mass hierarchies, simplified models from SUGRA unification, and benchmarks for LHC Run-II SUSY searches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Francescone, David; Akula, Sujeet; Altunkaynak, Baris; Nath, Pran

    2015-01-01

    Sparticle mass hierarchies contain significant information regarding the origin and nature of supersymmetry breaking. The hierarchical patterns are severely constrained by electroweak symmetry breaking as well as by the astrophysical and particle physics data. They are further constrained by the Higgs boson mass measurement. The sparticle mass hierarchies can be used to generate simplified models consistent with the high scale models. In this work we consider supergravity models with universal boundary conditions for soft parameters at the unification scale as well as supergravity models with nonuniversalities and delineate the list of sparticle mass hierarchies for the five lightest sparticles. Simplified models can be obtained by a truncation of these, retaining a smaller set of lightest particles. The mass hierarchies and their truncated versions enlarge significantly the list of simplified models currently being used in the literature. Benchmarks for a variety of supergravity unified models appropriate for SUSY searches at future colliders are also presented. The signature analysis of two benchmark models has been carried out and a discussion of the searches needed for their discovery at LHC Run-II is given. An analysis of the spin-independent neutralino-proton cross section exhibiting the Higgs boson mass dependence and the hierarchical patterns is also carried out. It is seen that a knowledge of the spin-independent neutralino-proton cross section and the neutralino mass will narrow down the list of the allowed sparticle mass hierarchies. Thus dark matter experiments along with analyses for the LHC Run-II will provide strong clues to the nature of symmetry breaking at the unification scale.

  12. Parallel runs of a large air pollution model on a grid of Sun computers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alexandrov, V.N.; Owczarz, W.; Thomsen, Per Grove

    2004-01-01

    Large -scale air pollution models can successfully be used in different environmental studies. These models are described mathematically by systems of partial differential equations. Splitting procedures followed by discretization of the spatial derivatives leads to several large systems...

  13. Assessing Wheat Frost Risk with the Support of GIS: An Approach Coupling a Growing Season Meteorological Index and a Hybrid Fuzzy Neural Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaojie Yue

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Crop frost, one kind of agro-meteorological disaster, often causes significant loss to agriculture. Thus, evaluating the risk of wheat frost aids scientific response to such disasters, which will ultimately promote food security. Therefore, this paper aims to propose an integrated risk assessment model of wheat frost, based on meteorological data and a hybrid fuzzy neural network model, taking China as an example. With the support of a geographic information system (GIS, a comprehensive method was put forward. Firstly, threshold temperatures of wheat frost at three growth stages were proposed, referring to phenology in different wheat growing areas and the meteorological standard of Degree of Crop Frost Damage (QX/T 88-2008. Secondly, a vulnerability curve illustrating the relationship between frost hazard intensity and wheat yield loss was worked out using hybrid fuzzy neural network model. Finally, the wheat frost risk was assessed in China. Results show that our proposed threshold temperatures are more suitable than using 0 °C in revealing the spatial pattern of frost occurrence, and hybrid fuzzy neural network model can further improve the accuracy of the vulnerability curve of wheat subject to frost with limited historical hazard records. Both these advantages ensure the precision of wheat frost risk assessment. In China, frost widely distributes in 85.00% of the total winter wheat planting area, but mainly to the north of 35°N; the southern boundary of wheat frost has moved northward, potentially because of the warming climate. There is a significant trend that suggests high risk areas will enlarge and gradually expand to the south, with the risk levels increasing from a return period of 2 years to 20 years. Among all wheat frost risk levels, the regions with loss rate ranges from 35.00% to 45.00% account for the largest area proportion, ranging from 58.60% to 63.27%. We argue that for wheat and other frost-affected crops, it is

  14. Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 2. Simulation Analysis Using the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-12-01

    An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

  15. Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 1. The Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-12-01

    An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

  16. Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 3. Appendices to the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-12-01

    An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

  17. Meteorology Products - Naval Oceanography Portal

    Science.gov (United States)

    section Advanced Search... Sections Home Time Earth Orientation Astronomy Meteorology Oceanography Ice You are here: Home › FNMOC › Meteorology Products FNMOC Logo FNMOC Navigation Meteorology Products Oceanography Products Tropical Applications Climatology and Archived Data Info Meteorology Products Global

  18. Presentation of the EURODELTA III intercomparison exercise - evaluation of the chemistry transport models' performance on criteria pollutants and joint analysis with meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bessagnet, Bertrand; Pirovano, Guido; Mircea, Mihaela; Cuvelier, Cornelius; Aulinger, Armin; Calori, Giuseppe; Ciarelli, Giancarlo; Manders, Astrid; Stern, Rainer; Tsyro, Svetlana; García Vivanco, Marta; Thunis, Philippe; Pay, Maria-Teresa; Colette, Augustin; Couvidat, Florian; Meleux, Frédérik; Rouïl, Laurence; Ung, Anthony; Aksoyoglu, Sebnem; María Baldasano, José; Bieser, Johannes; Briganti, Gino; Cappelletti, Andrea; D'Isidoro, Massimo; Finardi, Sandro; Kranenburg, Richard; Silibello, Camillo; Carnevale, Claudio; Aas, Wenche; Dupont, Jean-Charles; Fagerli, Hilde; Gonzalez, Lucia; Menut, Laurent; Prévôt, André S. H.; Roberts, Pete; White, Les

    2016-10-01

    The EURODELTA III exercise has facilitated a comprehensive intercomparison and evaluation of chemistry transport model performances. Participating models performed calculations for four 1-month periods in different seasons in the years 2006 to 2009, allowing the influence of different meteorological conditions on model performances to be evaluated. The exercise was performed with strict requirements for the input data, with few exceptions. As a consequence, most of differences in the outputs will be attributed to the differences in model formulations of chemical and physical processes. The models were evaluated mainly for background rural stations in Europe. The performance was assessed in terms of bias, root mean square error and correlation with respect to the concentrations of air pollutants (NO2, O3, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5), as well as key meteorological variables. Though most of meteorological parameters were prescribed, some variables like the planetary boundary layer (PBL) height and the vertical diffusion coefficient were derived in the model preprocessors and can partly explain the spread in model results. In general, the daytime PBL height is underestimated by all models. The largest variability of predicted PBL is observed over the ocean and seas. For ozone, this study shows the importance of proper boundary conditions for accurate model calculations and then on the regime of the gas and particle chemistry. The models show similar and quite good performance for nitrogen dioxide, whereas they struggle to accurately reproduce measured sulfur dioxide concentrations (for which the agreement with observations is the poorest). In general, the models provide a close-to-observations map of particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) concentrations over Europe rather with correlations in the range 0.4-0.7 and a systematic underestimation reaching -10 µg m-3 for PM10. The highest concentrations are much more underestimated, particularly in wintertime. Further evaluation of

  19. Presentation of the EURODELTA III intercomparison exercise – evaluation of the chemistry transport models' performance on criteria pollutants and joint analysis with meteorology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Bessagnet

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The EURODELTA III exercise has facilitated a comprehensive intercomparison and evaluation of chemistry transport model performances. Participating models performed calculations for four 1-month periods in different seasons in the years 2006 to 2009, allowing the influence of different meteorological conditions on model performances to be evaluated. The exercise was performed with strict requirements for the input data, with few exceptions. As a consequence, most of differences in the outputs will be attributed to the differences in model formulations of chemical and physical processes. The models were evaluated mainly for background rural stations in Europe. The performance was assessed in terms of bias, root mean square error and correlation with respect to the concentrations of air pollutants (NO2, O3, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5, as well as key meteorological variables. Though most of meteorological parameters were prescribed, some variables like the planetary boundary layer (PBL height and the vertical diffusion coefficient were derived in the model preprocessors and can partly explain the spread in model results. In general, the daytime PBL height is underestimated by all models. The largest variability of predicted PBL is observed over the ocean and seas. For ozone, this study shows the importance of proper boundary conditions for accurate model calculations and then on the regime of the gas and particle chemistry. The models show similar and quite good performance for nitrogen dioxide, whereas they struggle to accurately reproduce measured sulfur dioxide concentrations (for which the agreement with observations is the poorest. In general, the models provide a close-to-observations map of particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations over Europe rather with correlations in the range 0.4–0.7 and a systematic underestimation reaching −10 µg m−3 for PM10. The highest concentrations are much more underestimated, particularly in

  20. Modelling Energy Loss Mechanisms and a Determination of the Electron Energy Scale for the CDF Run II W Mass Measurement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Riddick, Thomas [Univ. College London, Bloomsbury (United Kingdom)

    2012-06-15

    The calibration of the calorimeter energy scale is vital to measuring the mass of the W boson at CDF Run II. For the second measurement of the W boson mass at CDF Run II, two independent simulations were developed. This thesis presents a detailed description of the modification and validation of Bremsstrahlung and pair production modelling in one of these simulations, UCL Fast Simulation, comparing to both geant4 and real data where appropriate. The total systematic uncertainty on the measurement of the W boson mass in the W → eve channel from residual inaccuracies in Bremsstrahlung modelling is estimated as 6.2 ±3.2 MeV/c2 and the total systematic uncertainty from residual inaccuracies in pair production modelling is estimated as 2.8± 2.7 MeV=c2. Two independent methods are used to calibrate the calorimeter energy scale in UCL Fast Simulation; the results of these two methods are compared to produce a measurement of the Z boson mass as a cross-check on the accuracy of the simulation.

  1. Possibilities of water run-off models by using geological information systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oeverland, H.; Kleeberg, H.B.

    1992-01-01

    The movement of water in a given region is determined by a number of regional factors, e.g. land use and topography. However, the available precipitation-runoff models take little account of this regional information. Geological information systems, on the other hand, are instruments for efficient management, presentation and evaluation of local information, so the best approach would be a combination of the two types of models. The requirements to be met by such a system are listed; they result from the processes to be modelled (continuous runoff, high-water runoff, mass transfer) but also from the available data and their acquisition and processing. Ten of the best-known precipitation-runoff models are presented and evaluated on the basis of the requirements listed. The basic concept of an integrated model is outlined, and additional modulus required for modelling are defined. (orig./BBR) [de

  2. Planned Burn-Piedmont. A local operational numerical meteorological model for tracking smoke on the ground at night: Model development and sensitivity tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gary L. Achtemeier

    2005-01-01

    Smoke from both prescribed fires and wildfires can, under certain meteorological conditions, become entrapped within shallow layers of air near the ground at night and get carried to unexpected destinations as a combination of weather systems push air through interlocking ridge-valley terrain typical of the Piedmont of the Soutthern United States. Entrapped smoke...

  3. The 1989 progress report: dynamic meteorology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadourny, R.

    1989-01-01

    The 1989 progress report of the laboratory of Dynamic Meteorology of the Polytechnic School (France) is presented. The aim of the research programs is the dynamic study of climate and environment in relationship with the global athmospheric behavior. The investigations reported were performed in the fields of: climate modelling, dynamic study of Turbulence, analysis of atmospheric radiation and nebulosity, tropical meteorology and climate, Earth radioactive balance, lidar measurements, middle atmosphere studies. The published papers, the conferences and Laboratory staff are listed [fr

  4. Integrated building and system simulation using run-time coupled distributed models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trcka, M.; Hensen, J.L.M.; Wijsman, A.J.T.M.

    2006-01-01

    In modeling and simulation of real building and heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system configurations, it is frequently found that certain parts can be represented in one simulation software, while models for other parts of the configuration are only available in other software.

  5. RUN COORDINATION

    CERN Multimedia

    G. Rakness.

    2013-01-01

    After three years of running, in February 2013 the era of sub-10-TeV LHC collisions drew to an end. Recall, the 2012 run had been extended by about three months to achieve the full complement of high-energy and heavy-ion physics goals prior to the start of Long Shutdown 1 (LS1), which is now underway. The LHC performance during these exciting years was excellent, delivering a total of 23.3 fb–1 of proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV, 6.2 fb–1 at 7 TeV, and 5.5 pb–1 at 2.76 TeV. They also delivered 170 μb–1 lead-lead collisions at 2.76 TeV/nucleon and 32 nb–1 proton-lead collisions at 5 TeV/nucleon. During these years the CMS operations teams and shift crews made tremendous strides to commission the detector, repeatedly stepping up to meet the challenges at every increase of instantaneous luminosity and energy. Although it does not fully cover the achievements of the teams, a way to quantify their success is the fact that that...

  6. Dynamically adjustable foot-ground contact model to estimate ground reaction force during walking and running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Yihwan; Jung, Moonki; Ryu, Jiseon; Yoon, Sukhoon; Park, Sang-Kyoon; Koo, Seungbum

    2016-03-01

    Human dynamic models have been used to estimate joint kinetics during various activities. Kinetics estimation is in demand in sports and clinical applications where data on external forces, such as the ground reaction force (GRF), are not available. The purpose of this study was to estimate the GRF during gait by utilizing distance- and velocity-dependent force models between the foot and ground in an inverse-dynamics-based optimization. Ten males were tested as they walked at four different speeds on a force plate-embedded treadmill system. The full-GRF model whose foot-ground reaction elements were dynamically adjusted according to vertical displacement and anterior-posterior speed between the foot and ground was implemented in a full-body skeletal model. The model estimated the vertical and shear forces of the GRF from body kinematics. The shear-GRF model with dynamically adjustable shear reaction elements according to the input vertical force was also implemented in the foot of a full-body skeletal model. Shear forces of the GRF were estimated from body kinematics, vertical GRF, and center of pressure. The estimated full GRF had the lowest root mean square (RMS) errors at the slow walking speed (1.0m/s) with 4.2, 1.3, and 5.7% BW for anterior-posterior, medial-lateral, and vertical forces, respectively. The estimated shear forces were not significantly different between the full-GRF and shear-GRF models, but the RMS errors of the estimated knee joint kinetics were significantly lower for the shear-GRF model. Providing COP and vertical GRF with sensors, such as an insole-type pressure mat, can help estimate shear forces of the GRF and increase accuracy for estimation of joint kinetics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Radionuclide transport in running waters, sensitivity analysis of bed-load, channel geometry and model discretisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonsson, Karin; Elert, Mark

    2006-08-01

    In this report, further investigations of the model concept for radionuclide transport in stream, developed in the SKB report TR-05-03 is presented. Especially three issues have been the focus of the model investigations. The first issue was to investigate the influence of assumed channel geometry on the simulation results. The second issue was to reconsider the applicability of the equation for the bed-load transport in the stream model, and finally the last issue was to investigate how the model discretisation will influence the simulation results. The simulations showed that there were relatively small differences in results when applying different cross-sections in the model. The inclusion of the exact shape of the cross-section in the model is therefore not crucial, however, if cross-sectional data exist, the overall shape of the cross-section should be used in the model formulation. This could e.g. be accomplished by using measured values of the stream width and depth in the middle of the stream and by assuming a triangular shape. The bed-load transport was in this study determined for different sediment characteristics which can be used as an order of magnitude estimation if no exact determinations of the bed-load are available. The difference in the calculated bed-load transport for the different materials was, however, found to be limited. The investigation of model discretisation showed that a fine model discretisation to account for numerical effects is probably not important for the performed simulations. However, it can be necessary for being able to account for different conditions along a stream. For example, the application of mean slopes instead of individual values in the different stream reaches can result in very different predicted concentrations

  8. Damage Propagation Modeling for Aircraft Engine Run-to-Failure Simulation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper describes how damage propagation can be modeled within the modules of aircraft gas turbine engines. To that end, response surfaces of all sensors are...

  9. Jesuits' Contribution to Meteorology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udías, Agustín

    1996-10-01

    Starting in the middle of the nineteenth century, as part of their scientific tradition, Jesuits founded a considerable number of meteorological observatories throughout the world. In many countries, Jesuits established and maintained the first meteorological stations during the period from 1860 to 1950. The Jesuits' most important contribution to atmospheric science was their pioneer work related to the study and forecast of tropical hurricanes. That research was carried out at observatories of Belén (Cuba), Manila (Philippines), and Zikawei (China). B. Viñes, M. Decheyrens, J. Aigué, and C.E. Deppermann stood out in this movement.

  10. Meteorology in site operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1986-01-01

    During the site selection and design phases of a plant, meteorological assistance must be based on past records, usually accumulated at stations not actually on the site. These preliminary atadvices will be averages and extremes that might be expected. After a location has been chosen and work has begun, current and forecast weather conditions become of immediate concern. On-site meteorological observations and forecasts have many applications to the operating program of an atomic energy site. Requirements may range from observations of the daily minimum temperatures to forecasts of radiation dosages from airborne clouds

  11. Comparing the performance of SIMD computers by running large air pollution models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brown, J.; Hansen, Per Christian; Wasniewski, J.

    1996-01-01

    To compare the performance and use of three massively parallel SIMD computers, we implemented a large air pollution model on these computers. Using a realistic large-scale model, we gained detailed insight about the performance of the computers involved when used to solve large-scale scientific...... problems that involve several types of numerical computations. The computers used in our study are the Connection Machines CM-200 and CM-5, and the MasPar MP-2216...

  12. Implementation of a micro-physical scheme for warm clouds in the meteorological model 'MERCURE': Application to cooling tower plumes and to orographic precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouzereau, Emmanuel

    2004-01-01

    A two-moment semi-spectral warm micro-physical scheme has been implemented inside the meteorological model 'MERCURE'. A new formulation of the buoyancy flux () is proposed, which is coherent with the corrigendum of Mellor (1977) but differs from Bougeault (1981). The non-precipitating cloud microphysics is validated by comparing the numerical simulations of fifteen cases of cooling tower plumes with data from a measurement campaign in Bugey in 1980. Satisfactory results are obtained on the plumes shape, on the temperature and vertical velocity fields and on the droplets spectrums, although the liquid water contents tend to be overestimated. The precipitating cloud microphysics is tested by reproducing the academical cases of orographic precipitation of Chaumerliac et al. (1987) and Richard and Chaumerliac (1989). The simulations allow a check of the action of different micro-physical terms. (author) [fr

  13. Circadian wheel running behavior is altered in an APP/E4 mouse model of late onset Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boggs, Katelyn N; Kakalec, Peter A; Smith, Meghann L; Howell, Stefanie N; Flinn, Jane M

    2017-12-01

    Circadian rhythms are altered in several diseases associated with aging, one of which is Alzheimer's disease (AD). One example of a circadian rhythm is the rest-activity cycle, which can be measured in mice by monitoring their wheel-running. The present study sought to investigate differences in light phase/dark phase activity between a mouse model of late onset AD (APP/E4) and control (C57Bl6J) mice, in both the pre-plaque and post-plaques stages of the disease. To assess activity level, 24-h wheel running behavior was monitored at six months (pre-plaque) and twelve months (post-plaque) for a period of nine days. The following measures were analyzed: counts (wheel rotations) during the dark phase, counts during the light phase, hour of activity onset, and hour of activity offset. Key findings indicate that activity onset is delayed in APP/E4 mice at six and twelve months, and activity profiles for APP/E4 and C57Bl6J mice differ during the light and dark phase in such a way that APP/E4 mice run less in the early hours of the dark phase and more in the later hours of the dark phase compared to C57Bl6J mice. These findings imply that rest-activity cycle is altered in the pre-plaque stages of AD in APP/E4 mice, as they show impairments as early as six months of age. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Suspended Sediment Dynamics in the Macrotidal Seine Estuary (France): 2. Numerical Modeling of Sediment Fluxes and Budgets Under Typical Hydrological and Meteorological Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulz, E.; Grasso, F.; Le Hir, P.; Verney, R.; Thouvenin, B.

    2018-01-01

    Understanding the sediment dynamics in an estuary is important for its morphodynamic and ecological assessment as well as, in case of an anthropogenically controlled system, for its maintenance. However, the quantification of sediment fluxes and budgets is extremely difficult from in-situ data and requires thoroughly validated numerical models. In the study presented here, sediment fluxes and budgets in the lower Seine Estuary were quantified and investigated from seasonal to annual time scales with respect to realistic hydro- and meteorological conditions. A realistic three-dimensional process-based hydro- and sediment-dynamic model was used to quantify mud and sand fluxes through characteristic estuarine cross-sections. In addition to a reference experiment with typical forcing, three experiments were carried out and analyzed, each differing from the reference experiment in either river discharge or wind and waves so that the effects of these forcings could be separated. Hydro- and meteorological conditions affect the sediment fluxes and budgets in different ways and at different locations. Single storm events induce strong erosion in the lower estuary and can have a significant effect on the sediment fluxes offshore of the Seine Estuary mouth, with the flux direction depending on the wind direction. Spring tides cause significant up-estuary fluxes at the mouth. A high river discharge drives barotropic down-estuary fluxes at the upper cross-sections, but baroclinic up-estuary fluxes at the mouth and offshore so that the lower estuary gains sediment during wet years. This behavior is likely to be observed worldwide in estuaries affected by density gradients and turbidity maximum dynamics.

  15. A description of the FAMOUS (version XDBUA climate model and control run

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Osprey

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available FAMOUS is an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model of low resolution, capable of simulating approximately 120 years of model climate per wallclock day using current high performance computing facilities. It uses most of the same code as HadCM3, a widely used climate model of higher resolution and computational cost, and has been tuned to reproduce the same climate reasonably well. FAMOUS is useful for climate simulations where the computational cost makes the application of HadCM3 unfeasible, either because of the length of simulation or the size of the ensemble desired. We document a number of scientific and technical improvements to the original version of FAMOUS. These improvements include changes to the parameterisations of ozone and sea-ice which alleviate a significant cold bias from high northern latitudes and the upper troposphere, and the elimination of volume-averaged drifts in ocean tracers. A simple model of the marine carbon cycle has also been included. A particular goal of FAMOUS is to conduct millennial-scale paleoclimate simulations of Quaternary ice ages; to this end, a number of useful changes to the model infrastructure have been made.

  16. LHV predication models and LHV effect on the performance of CI engine running with biodiesel blends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tesfa, B.; Gu, F.; Mishra, R.; Ball, A.D.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Lower heating values of neat biodiesel and its blends were measured experimentally. • Lower heating value prediction models were developed based on the density and viscosity values of the fuel. • The predication models were validated by measured values and previous models. • The prediction models were used to predict the lower heating value of 24 biodiesel feedstock types produced globally. • The effects of lower heating vale on brake specific fuel consumption and thermal efficiency were investigated. - Abstract: The heating value of fuel is one of its most important physical properties, and is used for the design and numerical simulation of combustion processes within internal combustion (IC) engines. Recently, there has been a significant increase in the use of dual fuel and blended fuels in compression ignition (CI) engines. Most of the blended fuels include biodiesel as one of the constituents and hence the objective of this study is to investigate the effect of biodiesel content to lower heating value (LHV) and to develop new LHV prediction models that correlate the LHV with biodiesel fraction, density and viscosity. Furthermore, this study also investigated the effects of the LHV on CI engines performance parameters experimentally. To achieve the above mentioned objectives density, viscosity and LHV of rapeseed oil biodiesel, corn oil biodiesel and waste oil biodiesel at different blend fraction values (B0, B5, B10, B20, B50, B75, and B100, where ‘B5’ denotes a blend of 5% biodiesel and 95% mineral diesel, etc.) were measured as per EN ISO 3675:1998, EN ISO 3104:1996 and DIN 51900 standards. The engine experimental work was conducted on a four-cylinder, four-stroke, direct injection (DI) and turbocharged diesel engine by using rapeseed oil and normal diesel blends. Based on the experimental results, models were developed which have the capability to predict the LHV corresponding to different fractions, densities and viscosities of

  17. Interim report on the meteorological database

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stage, S.A.; Ramsdell, J.V.; Simonen, C.A.; Burk, K.W.

    1993-01-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project is estimating radiation doses that individuals may have received from operations at Hanford from 1944 to the present. An independent Technical Steering Panel (TSP) directs the project, which is being conducted by the Battelle, Pacific Northwest Laboratories in Richland, Washington. The goals of HEDR, as approved by the TSP, include dose estimates and determination of confidence ranges for these estimates. This letter report describes the current status of the meteorological database. The report defines the meteorological data available for use in climate model calculations, describes the data collection procedures and the preparation and control of the meteorological database. This report also provides an initial assessment of the data quality. The available meteorological data are adequate for atmospheric calculations. Initial checks of the data indicate the data entry accuracy meets the data quality objectives

  18. Renormalization group running of fermion observables in an extended non-supersymmetric SO(10) model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meloni, Davide [Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Università di Roma Tre,Via della Vasca Navale 84, 00146 Rome (Italy); Ohlsson, Tommy; Riad, Stella [Department of Physics, School of Engineering Sciences,KTH Royal Institute of Technology - AlbaNova University Center,Roslagstullsbacken 21, 106 91 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2017-03-08

    We investigate the renormalization group evolution of fermion masses, mixings and quartic scalar Higgs self-couplings in an extended non-supersymmetric SO(10) model, where the Higgs sector contains the 10{sub H}, 120{sub H}, and 126{sub H} representations. The group SO(10) is spontaneously broken at the GUT scale to the Pati-Salam group and subsequently to the Standard Model (SM) at an intermediate scale M{sub I}. We explicitly take into account the effects of the change of gauge groups in the evolution. In particular, we derive the renormalization group equations for the different Yukawa couplings. We find that the computed physical fermion observables can be successfully matched to the experimental measured values at the electroweak scale. Using the same Yukawa couplings at the GUT scale, the measured values of the fermion observables cannot be reproduced with a SM-like evolution, leading to differences in the numerical values up to around 80%. Furthermore, a similar evolution can be performed for a minimal SO(10) model, where the Higgs sector consists of the 10{sub H} and 126{sub H} representations only, showing an equally good potential to describe the low-energy fermion observables. Finally, for both the extended and the minimal SO(10) models, we present predictions for the three Dirac and Majorana CP-violating phases as well as three effective neutrino mass parameters.

  19. Is running away right? The behavioral activation-behavioral inhibition model of anterior asymmetry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wacker, Jan; Chavanon, Mira-Lynn; Leue, Anja; Stemmler, Gerhard

    2008-04-01

    The measurement of anterior electroencephalograph (EEG) asymmetries has become an important standard paradigm for the investigation of affective states and traits. Findings in this area are typically interpreted within the motivational direction model, which suggests a lateralization of approach and withdrawal motivational systems to the left and right anterior region, respectively. However, efforts to compare this widely adopted model with an alternative account-which relates the left anterior region to behavioral activation independent of the direction of behavior (approach or withdrawal) and the right anterior region to goal conflict-induced behavioral inhibition-are rare and inconclusive. Therefore, the authors measured the EEG in a sample of 93 young men during emotional imagery designed to provide a critical test between the 2 models. The results (e.g., a correlation between left anterior activation and withdrawal motivation) favor the alternative model on the basis of the concepts of behavioral activation and behavioral inhibition. In addition, the present study also supports an association of right parietal activation with physiological arousal and the conceptualization of parietal EEG asymmetry as a mediator of emotion-related physiological arousal. (Copyright) 2008 APA.

  20. Verification of two simple meteorological models at large travel distances using ten-hour 85Kr measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pendergast, M.M.

    1978-01-01

    This report evaluates the wind-rose model and a trajectory model for calculating air concentrations averaged over 10 hours at distances greater than 100 km. Ten-hour averaged 85 Kr air concentrations from 13 sites located withing 143 km of the Savannah River Plant (SRP) were used to evaluate two simple models: a wind-rose model, and a trajectory model. The wind-rose model has previously been shown to estimate annual average concentrations to within a factor of four for travel distances of about 100 km. When 85 Kr concentrations were observed (80 cases), the wind-rose model predicted above background for only 36 percent of the cases, while the trajectory model predicted above background for 56 percent of the cases. The wind-rose model tended to overpredict air concentration by a factor of 4 while the trajectory model tended to underpredict by a factor of 3 for those occasions where observations and calculations were above background

  1. Impact of 2000–2050 climate change on fine particulate matter (PM2.5 air quality inferred from a multi-model analysis of meteorological modes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. Jacob

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Studies of the effect of climate change on fine particulate matter (PM2.5 air quality using general circulation models (GCMs show inconsistent results including in the sign of the effect. This reflects uncertainty in the GCM simulations of the regional meteorological variables affecting PM2.5. Here we use the CMIP3 archive of data from fifteen different IPCC AR4 GCMs to obtain improved statistics of 21st-century trends in the meteorological modes driving PM2.5 variability over the contiguous US. We analyze 1999–2010 observations to identify the dominant meteorological modes driving interannual PM2.5 variability and their synoptic periods T. We find robust correlations (r > 0.5 of annual mean PM2.5 with T, especially in the eastern US where the dominant modes represent frontal passages. The GCMs all have significant skill in reproducing present-day statistics for T and we show that this reflects their ability to simulate atmospheric baroclinicity. We then use the local PM2.5-to-period sensitivity (dPM2.5/dT from the 1999–2010 observations to project PM2.5 changes from the 2000–2050 changes in T simulated by the 15 GCMs following the SRES A1B greenhouse warming scenario. By weighted-average statistics of GCM results we project a likely 2000–2050 increase of ~ 0.1 μg m−3 in annual mean PM2.5 in the eastern US arising from less frequent frontal ventilation, and a likely decrease albeit with greater inter-GCM variability in the Pacific Northwest due to more frequent maritime inflows. Potentially larger regional effects of 2000–2050 climate change on PM2.5 may arise from changes in temperature, biogenic emissions, wildfires, and vegetation, but are still unlikely to affect annual PM2.5 by more than 0.5 μg m−3.

  2. Global O3-CO correlations in a chemistry and transport model during July-August: evaluation with TES satellite observations and sensitivity to input meteorological data and emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Hyun-Deok; Liu, Hongyu; Crawford, James H.; Considine, David B.; Allen, Dale J.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Rodriguez, Jose M.; Strahan, Susan E.; Zhang, Lin; Liu, Xiong; Damon, Megan R.; Steenrod, Stephen D.

    2017-07-01

    We examine the capability of the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry and transport model to reproduce global mid-tropospheric (618 hPa) ozone-carbon monoxide (O3-CO) correlations determined by the measurements from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) aboard NASA's Aura satellite during boreal summer (July-August). The model is driven by three meteorological data sets (finite-volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM) with sea surface temperature for 1995, Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 4 (GEOS-4 DAS) for 2005, and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) for 2005), allowing us to examine the sensitivity of model O3-CO correlations to input meteorological data. Model simulations of radionuclide tracers (222Rn, 210Pb, and 7Be) are used to illustrate the differences in transport-related processes among the meteorological data sets. Simulated O3 values are evaluated with climatological profiles from ozonesonde measurements and satellite tropospheric O3 columns. Despite the fact that the three simulations show significantly different global and regional distributions of O3 and CO concentrations, they show similar patterns of O3-CO correlations on a global scale. All model simulations sampled along the TES orbit track capture the observed positive O3-CO correlations in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude continental outflow and the Southern Hemisphere subtropics. While all simulations show strong negative correlations over the Tibetan Plateau, northern Africa, the subtropical eastern North Pacific, and the Caribbean, TES O3 and CO concentrations at 618 hPa only show weak negative correlations over much narrower areas (i.e., the Tibetan Plateau and northern Africa). Discrepancies in regional O3-CO correlation patterns in the three simulations may be attributed to differences in convective transport, stratospheric influence, and subsidence, among other processes. To understand how various

  3. Addressing Thermal Model Run Time Concerns of the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope using Astrophysics Focused Telescope Assets (WFIRST-AFTA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peabody, Hume; Guerrero, Sergio; Hawk, John; Rodriguez, Juan; McDonald, Carson; Jackson, Cliff

    2016-01-01

    The Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope using Astrophysics Focused Telescope Assets (WFIRST-AFTA) utilizes an existing 2.4 m diameter Hubble sized telescope donated from elsewhere in the federal government for near-infrared sky surveys and Exoplanet searches to answer crucial questions about the universe and dark energy. The WFIRST design continues to increase in maturity, detail, and complexity with each design cycle leading to a Mission Concept Review and entrance to the Mission Formulation Phase. Each cycle has required a Structural-Thermal-Optical-Performance (STOP) analysis to ensure the design can meet the stringent pointing and stability requirements. As such, the models have also grown in size and complexity leading to increased model run time. This paper addresses efforts to reduce the run time while still maintaining sufficient accuracy for STOP analyses. A technique was developed to identify slews between observing orientations that were sufficiently different to warrant recalculation of the environmental fluxes to reduce the total number of radiation calculation points. The inclusion of a cryocooler fluid loop in the model also forced smaller time-steps than desired, which greatly increases the overall run time. The analysis of this fluid model required mitigation to drive the run time down by solving portions of the model at different time scales. Lastly, investigations were made into the impact of the removal of small radiation couplings on run time and accuracy. Use of these techniques allowed the models to produce meaningful results within reasonable run times to meet project schedule deadlines.

  4. PENGEMBANGAN MODEL PEMBELAJARAN PERMAINAN COLORFUL BALLS RUN UNTUK REAKSI GERAK PADA ANAK TUNAGARHITA DI SLB NEGERI SEMARANG TAHUN 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahadian Yodha Bhakti

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to determine the products of The Development of Learning Colorful Balls Run for Motion Reaction of mentally disabled children of SLB Negeri Semarang grade V in the academic year of 2015.. This research is the development (research and development / R & D, which consists of 10 steps of research, namely the potential and problems, data collection, product design, design validation, design revisions, test products, product revision, trial use, testing products, mass production Because the average obtained from the experts of physical education teacher 80% (good and from learning experts gained 92% (very good. The results of trial I product of small group on cognitive aspects was 83.53% (good, affective aspects was 82.10% (good, psychomotor aspects was 81.39% (good, the average of trial I was 82.34% (good. The results of trial II, the large group in the cognitive aspects was 85.14% (good affective aspects was 83.76% (good psychomotor aspects was 83.07% (good, the average of trial II was 83.99% (good. It was concluded that the development of colorful balls run game model can be used as an alternative to learn sport especially small ball game for V graders of SLB Negeri Semarang.

  5. Computer Exercises in Meteorology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trapasso, L. Michael; Conner, Glen; Stallins, Keith

    Beginning with Western Kentucky University's (Bowling Green) fall 1999 semester, exercises required for the geography and meteorology course used computers for learning. This course enrolls about 250 students per year, most of whom choose it to fulfill a general education requirement. Of the 185 geography majors, it is required for those who…

  6. Quark flavour observables in the Littlest Higgs model with T-parity after LHC Run 1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanke, Monika; Buras, Andrzej J; Recksiegel, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    The Littlest Higgs model with T-parity (LHT) belongs to the simplest new physics scenarios with new sources of flavour and CP violation. The latter originate in the interactions of ordinary quarks and leptons with heavy mirror quarks and leptons that are mediated by new heavy gauge bosons. Also a heavy fermionic top partner is present in this model which communicates with the SM fermions by means of standard [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] gauge bosons. We present a new analysis of quark flavour observables in the LHT model in view of the oncoming flavour precision era. We use all available information on the CKM parameters, lattice QCD input and experimental data on quark flavour observables and corresponding theoretical calculations, taking into account new lower bounds on the symmetry breaking scale and the mirror quark masses from the LHC. We investigate by how much the branching ratios for a number of rare K and B decays are still allowed to depart from their SM values. This includes [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text]. Taking into account the constraints from [Formula: see text] processes, significant departures from the SM predictions for [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] are possible, while the effects in B decays are much smaller. In particular, the LHT model favours [Formula: see text], which is not supported by the data, and the present anomalies in [Formula: see text] decays cannot be explained in this model. With the recent lattice and large N input the imposition of the [Formula: see text] constraint implies a significant suppression of the branching ratio for [Formula: see text] with respect to its SM value while allowing only for small modifications of [Formula: see text]. Finally, we investigate how the LHT physics could be distinguished from other models by means of indirect measurements and

  7. Modelling long run strategic behaviour on the liberalised European gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mulder, Machiel; Zwart, Gijsbert

    2005-01-01

    In gas markets, intertemporal constraints are of particular importance due to the finiteness of gas resources. In particular in the UK and the Netherlands, gas resources are expected to dry up on the medium term, giving rise to a positive resource rent of the gas. On shorter time scales, decisions on investments in production, transmission, storage and LNG terminal capacities affect short term output decisions in following years, while within the year prices across seasons are related through storage decisions. We develop a model of strategic behaviour on the European gas markets that incorporates such intertemporal relations. We take into account interactions between strategic producers of gas, price-taking transmission companies, and traders arbitraging the markets by transporting gas across borders, storing gas across seasons, and importing LNG. As a case study, we use the model to explore the impacts on producer behaviour and infrastructure investments of a cap on production from a large gas field in the Netherlands. (Author)

  8. Quark flavour observables in the Littlest Higgs model with T-parity after LHC Run 1

    CERN Document Server

    Blanke, Monika; Recksiegel, Stefan

    2016-04-02

    The Littlest Higgs Model with T-parity (LHT) belongs to the simplest new physics scenarios with new sources of flavour and CP violation. We present a new analysis of quark observables in the LHT model in view of the oncoming flavour precision era. We use all available information on the CKM parameters, lattice QCD input and experimental data on quark flavour observables and corresponding theoretical calculations, taking into account new lower bounds on the symmetry breaking scale and the mirror quark masses from the LHC. We investigate by how much the branching ratios for a number of rare $K$ and $B$ decays are still allowed to depart from their SM values. This includes $K^+\\to\\pi^+\

  9. Influential factors of red-light running at signalized intersection and prediction using a rare events logistic regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Yilong; Wang, Yunpeng; Wu, Xinkai; Yu, Guizhen; Ding, Chuan

    2016-10-01

    Red light running (RLR) has become a major safety concern at signalized intersection. To prevent RLR related crashes, it is critical to identify the factors that significantly impact the drivers' behaviors of RLR, and to predict potential RLR in real time. In this research, 9-month's RLR events extracted from high-resolution traffic data collected by loop detectors from three signalized intersections were applied to identify the factors that significantly affect RLR behaviors. The data analysis indicated that occupancy time, time gap, used yellow time, time left to yellow start, whether the preceding vehicle runs through the intersection during yellow, and whether there is a vehicle passing through the intersection on the adjacent lane were significantly factors for RLR behaviors. Furthermore, due to the rare events nature of RLR, a modified rare events logistic regression model was developed for RLR prediction. The rare events logistic regression method has been applied in many fields for rare events studies and shows impressive performance, but so far none of previous research has applied this method to study RLR. The results showed that the rare events logistic regression model performed significantly better than the standard logistic regression model. More importantly, the proposed RLR prediction method is purely based on loop detector data collected from a single advance loop detector located 400 feet away from stop-bar. This brings great potential for future field applications of the proposed method since loops have been widely implemented in many intersections and can collect data in real time. This research is expected to contribute to the improvement of intersection safety significantly. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Running climate model on a commercial cloud computing environment: A case study using Community Earth System Model (CESM) on Amazon AWS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiuhong; Huang, Xianglei; Jiao, Chaoyi; Flanner, Mark G.; Raeker, Todd; Palen, Brock

    2017-01-01

    The suites of numerical models used for simulating climate of our planet are usually run on dedicated high-performance computing (HPC) resources. This study investigates an alternative to the usual approach, i.e. carrying out climate model simulations on commercially available cloud computing environment. We test the performance and reliability of running the CESM (Community Earth System Model), a flagship climate model in the United States developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), on Amazon Web Service (AWS) EC2, the cloud computing environment by Amazon.com, Inc. StarCluster is used to create virtual computing cluster on the AWS EC2 for the CESM simulations. The wall-clock time for one year of CESM simulation on the AWS EC2 virtual cluster is comparable to the time spent for the same simulation on a local dedicated high-performance computing cluster with InfiniBand connections. The CESM simulation can be efficiently scaled with the number of CPU cores on the AWS EC2 virtual cluster environment up to 64 cores. For the standard configuration of the CESM at a spatial resolution of 1.9° latitude by 2.5° longitude, increasing the number of cores from 16 to 64 reduces the wall-clock running time by more than 50% and the scaling is nearly linear. Beyond 64 cores, the communication latency starts to outweigh the benefit of distributed computing and the parallel speedup becomes nearly unchanged.

  11. Fast Atmosphere-Ocean Model Runs with Large Changes in CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Gary L.; Lacis, Andrew A.; Rind, David H.; Colose, Christopher; Opstbaum, Roger F.

    2013-01-01

    How does climate sensitivity vary with the magnitude of climate forcing? This question was investigated with the use of a modified coupled atmosphere-ocean model, whose stability was improved so that the model would accommodate large radiative forcings yet be fast enough to reach rapid equilibrium. Experiments were performed in which atmospheric CO2 was multiplied by powers of 2, from 1/64 to 256 times the 1950 value. From 8 to 32 times, the 1950 CO2, climate sensitivity for doubling CO2 reaches 8 C due to increases in water vapor absorption and cloud top height and to reductions in low level cloud cover. As CO2 amount increases further, sensitivity drops as cloud cover and planetary albedo stabilize. No water vapor-induced runaway greenhouse caused by increased CO2 was found for the range of CO2 examined. With CO2 at or below 1/8 of the 1950 value, runaway sea ice does occur as the planet cascades to a snowball Earth climate with fully ice covered oceans and global mean surface temperatures near 30 C.

  12. Configuring a Graphical User Interface for Managing Local HYSPLIT Model Runs Through AWIPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, mark M.; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian; VanSpeybroeck, Kurt M.

    2009-01-01

    Responding to incidents involving the release of harmful airborne pollutants is a continual challenge for Weather Forecast Offices in the National Weather Service. When such incidents occur, current protocol recommends forecaster-initiated requests of NOAA's Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model output through the National Centers of Environmental Prediction to obtain critical dispersion guidance. Individual requests are submitted manually through a secured web site, with desired multiple requests submitted in sequence, for the purpose of obtaining useful trajectory and concentration forecasts associated with the significant release of harmful chemical gases, radiation, wildfire smoke, etc., into local the atmosphere. To help manage the local HYSPLIT for both routine and emergency use, a graphical user interface was designed for operational efficiency. The interface allows forecasters to quickly determine the current HYSPLIT configuration for the list of predefined sites (e.g., fixed sites and floating sites), and to make any necessary adjustments to key parameters such as Input Model. Number of Forecast Hours, etc. When using the interface, forecasters will obtain desired output more confidently and without the danger of corrupting essential configuration files.

  13. A realistic intersecting D6-brane model after the first LHC run

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tianjun; Nanopoulos, D. V.; Raza, Shabbar; Wang, Xiao-Chuan

    2014-08-01

    With the Higgs boson mass around 125 GeV and the LHC supersymmetry search constraints, we revisit a three-family Pati-Salam model from intersecting D6-branes in Type IIA string theory on the T 6/(ℤ2 × ℤ2) orientifold which has a realistic phenomenology. We systematically scan the parameter space for μ 0, and find that the gravitino mass is generically heavier than about 2 TeV for both cases due to the Higgs mass low bound 123 GeV. In particular, we identify a region of parameter space with the electroweak fine-tuning as small as Δ EW ~ 24-32 (3-4%). In the viable parameter space which is consistent with all the current constraints, the mass ranges for gluino, the first two-generation squarks and sleptons are respectively [3, 18] TeV, [3, 16] TeV, and [2, 7] TeV. For the third-generation sfermions, the light stop satisfying 5 σ WMAP bounds via neutralino-stop coannihilation has mass from 0.5 to 1.2 TeV, and the light stau can be as light as 800 GeV. We also show various coannihilation and resonance scenarios through which the observed dark matter relic density is achieved. Interestingly, the certain portions of parameter space has excellent t- b- τ and b- τ Yukawa coupling unification. Three regions of parameter space are highlighted as well where the dominant component of the lightest neutralino is a bino, wino or higgsino. We discuss various scenarios in which such solutions may avoid recent astrophysical bounds in case if they satisfy or above observed relic density bounds. Prospects of finding higgsino-like neutralino in direct and indirect searches are also studied. And we display six tables of benchmark points depicting various interesting features of our model. Note that the lightest neutralino can be heavy up to 2.8 TeV, and there exists a natural region of parameter space from low-energy fine-tuning definition with heavy gluino and first two-generation squarks/sleptons, we point out that the 33 TeV and 100 TeV proton-proton colliders are indeed

  14. Establishment of a Site-Specific Tropospheric Model Based on Ground Meteorological Parameters over the China Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Chongchong; Peng, Bibo; Li, Wei; Zhong, Shiming; Ou, Jikun; Chen, Runjing; Zhao, Xinglong

    2017-07-27

    China is a country of vast territory with complicated geographical environment and climate conditions. With the rapid progress of the Chinese BeiDou satellite navigation system (BDS); more accurate tropospheric models must be applied to improve the accuracy of navigation and positioning. Based on the formula of the Saastamoinen and Callahan models; this study develops two single-site tropospheric models (named SAAS_S and CH_S models) for the Chinese region using radiosonde data from 2005 to 2012. We assess the two single-site tropospheric models with radiosonde data for 2013 and zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) data from four International GNSS Service (IGS) stations and compare them to the results of the Saastamoinen and Callahan models. The experimental results show that: the mean accuracy of the SAAS_S model (bias: 0.19 cm; RMS: 3.19 cm) at all radiosonde stations is superior to those of the Saastamoinen (bias: 0.62 cm; RMS: 3.62 cm) and CH_S (bias: -0.05 cm; RMS: 3.38 cm) models. In most Chinese regions; the RMS values of the SAAS_S and CH_S models are about 0.51~2.12 cm smaller than those of their corresponding source models. The SAAS_S model exhibits a clear improvement in the accuracy over the Saastamoinen model in low latitude regions. When the SAAS_S model is replaced by the SAAS model in the positioning of GNSS; the mean accuracy of vertical direction in the China region can be improved by 1.12~1.55 cm and the accuracy of vertical direction in low latitude areas can be improved by 1.33~7.63 cm. The residuals of the SAAS_S model are closer to a normal distribution compared to those of the Saastamoinen model. Single-site tropospheric models based on the short period of the most recent data (for example 2 years) can also achieve a satisfactory accuracy. The average performance of the SAAS_S model (bias: 0.83 cm; RMS: 3.24 cm) at four IGS stations is superior to that of the Saastamoinen (bias: -0.86 cm; RMS: 3.59 cm) and CH_S (bias: 0.45 cm; RMS: 3.38 cm

  15. Daily House Price Indices: Construction, Modeling, and Longer-Run Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Patton, Andrew J.; Wang, Wenjing

    We construct daily house price indices for ten major U.S. metropolitan areas. Our calculations are based on a comprehensive database of several million residential property transactions and a standard repeat-sales method that closely mimics the methodology of the popular monthly Case-Shiller house...... price indices. Our new daily house price indices exhibit dynamic features similar to those of other daily asset prices, with mild autocorrelation and strong conditional heteroskedasticity of the corresponding daily returns. A relatively simple multivariate time series model for the daily house price...... index returns, explicitly allowing for commonalities across cities and GARCH effects, produces forecasts of monthly house price changes that are superior to various alternative forecast procedures based on lower frequency data....

  16. Running Club

    CERN Multimedia

    Running Club

    2010-01-01

    The 2010 edition of the annual CERN Road Race will be held on Wednesday 29th September at 18h. The 5.5km race takes place over 3 laps of a 1.8 km circuit in the West Area of the Meyrin site, and is open to everyone working at CERN and their families. There are runners of all speeds, with times ranging from under 17 to over 34 minutes, and the race is run on a handicap basis, by staggering the starting times so that (in theory) all runners finish together. Children (< 15 years) have their own race over 1 lap of 1.8km. As usual, there will be a “best family” challenge (judged on best parent + best child). Trophies are awarded in the usual men’s, women’s and veterans’ categories, and there is a challenge for the best age/performance. Every adult will receive a souvenir prize, financed by a registration fee of 10 CHF. Children enter free (each child will receive a medal). More information, and the online entry form, can be found at http://cern.ch/club...

  17. RUN COORDINATION

    CERN Multimedia

    Christophe Delaere

    2012-01-01

      On Wednesday 14 March, the machine group successfully injected beams into LHC for the first time this year. Within 48 hours they managed to ramp the beams to 4 TeV and proceeded to squeeze to β*=0.6m, settings that are used routinely since then. This brought to an end the CMS Cosmic Run at ~Four Tesla (CRAFT), during which we collected 800k cosmic ray events with a track crossing the central Tracker. That sample has been since then topped up to two million, allowing further refinements of the Tracker Alignment. The LHC started delivering the first collisions on 5 April with two bunches colliding in CMS, giving a pile-up of ~27 interactions per crossing at the beginning of the fill. Since then the machine has increased the number of colliding bunches to reach 1380 bunches and peak instantaneous luminosities around 6.5E33 at the beginning of fills. The average bunch charges reached ~1.5E11 protons per bunch which results in an initial pile-up of ~30 interactions per crossing. During the ...

  18. RUN COORDINATION

    CERN Multimedia

    C. Delaere

    2012-01-01

      With the analysis of the first 5 fb–1 culminating in the announcement of the observation of a new particle with mass of around 126 GeV/c2, the CERN directorate decided to extend the LHC run until February 2013. This adds three months to the original schedule. Since then the LHC has continued to perform extremely well, and the total luminosity delivered so far this year is 22 fb–1. CMS also continues to perform excellently, recording data with efficiency higher than 95% for fills with the magnetic field at nominal value. The highest instantaneous luminosity achieved by LHC to date is 7.6x1033 cm–2s–1, which translates into 35 interactions per crossing. On the CMS side there has been a lot of work to handle these extreme conditions, such as a new DAQ computer farm and trigger menus to handle the pile-up, automation of recovery procedures to minimise the lost luminosity, better training for the shift crews, etc. We did suffer from a couple of infrastructure ...

  19. A meteorological overview of the ARCTAS 2008 mission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. E. Fuelberg

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS mission was a multi-aircraft project whose major objective was to investigate the factors driving changes in the Arctic's atmospheric composition and climate. It was conducted during April and June–July 2008. The summer ARCTAS deployment was preceded by a week of flights over and around California to address state issues of air quality and climate forcing. This paper focuses on meteorological conditions during the ARCTAS Spring and Summer campaigns. We examine mission averaged large-scale flow patterns at the surface, 500 hPa, and 300 hPa and determine their departures from climatology. Results from runs of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model are used to describe meteorological conditions on individual days. Our WRF configuration included a nested grid approach that provided horizontal spacing as small as 5 km. Trajectories calculated from the WRF output are used to determine transport pathways to the Arctic, including their origins and the altitudes at which they reach 70° N. We also present backward trajectories from selected legs of individual ARCTAS flights. Finally, the FLEXPART Lagrangian particle dispersion model, with the high resolution WRF data as input, is used to determine the paths of anthropogenic and biomass burning-derived CO. Results show that there was frequent and widespread transport to the Arctic during both phases of ARCTAS and that the three ARCTAS aircraft sampled air having a multitude of origins, following a myriad of paths, and experiencing many types of meteorological conditions.

  20. Regional on-road vehicle running emissions modeling and evaluation for conventional and alternative vehicle technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, H Christopher; Zhai, Haibo; Rouphail, Nagui M

    2009-11-01

    This study presents a methodology for estimating high-resolution, regional on-road vehicle emissions and the associated reductions in air pollutant emissions from vehicles that utilize alternative fuels or propulsion technologies. The fuels considered are gasoline, diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, compressed natural gas, hydrogen, and electricity. The technologies considered are internal combustion or compression engines, hybrids, fuel cell, and electric. Road link-based emission models are developed using modal fuel use and emission rates applied to facility- and speed-specific driving cycles. For an urban case study, passenger cars were found to be the largest sources of HC, CO, and CO(2) emissions, whereas trucks contributed the largest share of NO(x) emissions. When alternative fuel and propulsion technologies were introduced in the fleet at a modest market penetration level of 27%, their emission reductions were found to be 3-14%. Emissions for all pollutants generally decreased with an increase in the market share of alternative vehicle technologies. Turnover of the light duty fleet to newer Tier 2 vehicles reduced emissions of HC, CO, and NO(x) substantially. However, modest improvements in fuel economy may be offset by VMT growth and reductions in overall average speed.

  1. Algebraic modeling and thermodynamic design of fan-supplied tube-fin evaporators running under frosting conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ribeiro, Rafael S.; Hermes, Christian J.L.

    2014-01-01

    In this study, the method of entropy generation minimization (i.e., design aimed at facilitating both heat, mass and fluid flows) is used to assess the evaporator design (aspect ratio and fin density) considering the thermodynamic losses due to heat and mass transfer, and viscous flow processes. A fully algebraic model was put forward to simulate the thermal-hydraulic behavior of tube-fin evaporator coils running under frosting conditions. The model predictions were validated against experimental data, showing a good agreement between calculated and measured counterparts. The optimization exercise has pointed out that high aspect ratio heat exchanger designs lead to lower entropy generation in cases of fixed cooling capacity and air flow rate constrained by the characteristic curve of the fan. - Highlights: • An algebraic model for frost accumulation on tube-fin heat exchangers was advanced. • Model predictions for cooling capacity and air flow rate were compared with experimental data, with errors within ±5% band. • Minimum entropy generation criterion was used to optimize the evaporator geometry. • Thermodynamic analysis led to slender designs for fixed cooling capacity and fan characteristics

  2. Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy data - over 200 satellite-derived meteorology and solar energy parameters, monthly averaged from 22 years of data, global solar...

  3. Direct Radiative Impacts of Central American Biomass Burning Smoke Aerosols: Analysis from a Coupled Aerosol-Radiation-Meteorology Model RAMS-AROMA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.; Christopher, S. A.; Nair, U. S.; Reid, J. S.; Prins, E. M.

    2005-12-01

    Considerable efforts including various field experiments have been carried out in the last decade for studying the regional climatic impact of smoke aerosols produced by biomass burning activities in Africa and South America. In contrast, only few investigations have been conducted for Central American Biomass Burning (CABB) region. Using a coupled aerosol-radiation-meteorology model called RAMS-AROMA together with various ground-based observations, we present a comprehensive analysis of the smoke direct radiative impacts on the surface energy budget, boundary layer evolution, and e precipitation process during the CABB events in Spring 2003. Quantitative estimates are also made regarding the transboundary carbon mass to the U.S. in the form of smoke particles. Buult upon the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale model, the RAMS AROMA has several features including Assimilation and Radiation Online Modeling of Aerosols (AROMA) algorithms. The model simulates smoke transport by using hourly smoke emission inventory from the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) geostationary satellite database. It explicitly considers the smoke effects on the radiative transfer at each model time step and model grid, thereby coupling the dynamical processes and aerosol transport. Comparison with ground-based observation show that the simulation realistically captured the smoke transport timeline and distribution from daily to hourly scales. The effects of smoke radiative extinction on the decrease of 2m air temperature (2mT), diurnal temperature range (DTR), and boundary layer height over the land surface are also quantified. Warming due to smoke absorption of solar radiation can be found in the lower troposphere over the ocean, but not near the underlying land surface. The increase of boundary layer stability produces a positive feedback where more smoke particles are trapped in the lower boundary layer. These changes in temperature, surface

  4. A set of numerical meteorological models for solving basic and some special problems in the Boris Kidric Institute

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grscic, Z.

    1989-01-01

    Models for solving transport and dispersion problems of radioactive pollutants through atmosphere are briefly shown. These models are the base for solving and some special problems such as: estimating effective and physical heights of radioactive sources, computation of radioactive concentration distribution from multiple sources etc (author)

  5. Coupling of Large Eddy Simulations with Meteorological Models to simulate Methane Leaks from Natural Gas Storage Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, K.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric transport is usually performed with weather models, e.g., the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that employs a parameterized turbulence model and does not resolve the fine scale dynamics generated by the flow around buildings and features comprising a large city. The NIST Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) is a computational fluid dynamics model that utilizes large eddy simulation methods to model flow around buildings at length scales much smaller than is practical with models like WRF. FDS has the potential to evaluate the impact of complex topography on near-field dispersion and mixing that is difficult to simulate with a mesoscale atmospheric model. A methodology has been developed to couple the FDS model with WRF mesoscale transport models. The coupling is based on nudging the FDS flow field towards that computed by WRF, and is currently limited to one way coupling performed in an off-line mode. This approach allows the FDS model to operate as a sub-grid scale model with in a WRF simulation. To test and validate the coupled FDS - WRF model, the methane leak from the Aliso Canyon underground storage facility was simulated. Large eddy simulations were performed over the complex topography of various natural gas storage facilities including Aliso Canyon, Honor Rancho and MacDonald Island at 10 m horizontal and vertical resolution. The goal of these simulations included improving and validating transport models as well as testing leak hypotheses. Forward simulation results were compared with aircraft and tower based in-situ measurements as well as methane plumes observed using the NASA Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and the next generation instrument AVIRIS-NG. Comparison of simulation results with measurement data demonstrate the capability of the coupled FDS-WRF models to accurately simulate the transport and dispersion of methane plumes over urban domains. Simulated integrated methane enhancements will be presented and

  6. Virtual Meteorological Center

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Brinzila

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available A virtual meteorological center, computer based with Internet possibility transmission of the information is presented. Circumstance data is collected with logging field meteorological station. The station collects and automatically save data about the temperature in the air, relative humidity, pressure, wind speed and wind direction, rain gauge, solar radiation and air quality. Also can perform sensors test, analyze historical data and evaluate statistical information. The novelty of the system is that it can publish data over the Internet using LabVIEW Web Server capabilities and deliver a video signal to the School TV network. Also the system performs redundant measurement of temperature and humidity and was improved using new sensors and an original signal conditioning module.

  7. Meteorological instrumentation for nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, A.C.L. da.

    1983-01-01

    The main requirements of regulatory agencies, concerning the meteorological instrumentation needed for the licensing of nuclear facilities are discussed. A description is made of the operational principles of sensors for the various meteorological parameters and associated electronic systems. An analysis of the problems associated with grounding of a typical meteorological station is presented. (Author) [pt

  8. Meteorological instrumentation for nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, A.C.L. da.

    1983-01-01

    The main requirements of regulatory agencies, concerning the meteorological instrumentation needed for the licensing of nuclear facilities are discussed. A description is made of the operational principles of sensors for the various meteorological parameters and associated electronic systems. Finally, it is presented an analysis of the problems associated with grounding of a typical meteorological station. (Author) [pt

  9. Pantex Plant meteorological monitoring program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Snyder, S.F.

    1993-07-01

    The current meteorological monitoring program of the US Department of Energy's Pantex Plant, Amarillo, Texas, is described in detail. Instrumentation, meteorological data collection and management, and program management are reviewed. In addition, primary contacts are noted for instrumentation, calibration, data processing, and alternative databases. The quality assurance steps implemented during each portion of the meteorological monitoring program are also indicated

  10. A Bayesian analysis of sensible heat flux estimation: Quantifying uncertainty in meteorological forcing to improve model prediction

    KAUST Repository

    Ershadi, Ali; McCabe, Matthew; Evans, Jason P.; Mariethoz, Gregoire; Kavetski, Dmitri

    2013-01-01

    The influence of uncertainty in land surface temperature, air temperature, and wind speed on the estimation of sensible heat flux is analyzed using a Bayesian inference technique applied to the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model

  11. Extreme meteorological conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Altinger de Schwarzkopf, M.L.

    1983-01-01

    Different meteorological variables which may reach significant extreme values, such as the windspeed and, in particular, its occurrence through tornadoes and hurricanes that necesarily incide and wich must be taken into account at the time of nuclear power plants' installation, are analyzed. For this kind of study, it is necessary to determine the basic phenomenum of design. Two criteria are applied to define the basic values of design for extreme meteorological variables. The first one determines the expected extreme value: it is obtained from analyzing the recurence of the phenomenum in a convened period of time, wich may be generally of 50 years. The second one determines the extreme value of low probability, taking into account the nuclear power plant's operating life -f.ex. 25 years- and considering, during said lapse, the occurrence probabilities of extreme meteorological phenomena. The values may be determined either by the deterministic method, which is based on the acknowledgement of the fundamental physical characteristics of the phenomena or by the probabilistic method, that aims to the analysis of historical statistical data. Brief comments are made on the subject in relation to the Argentine Republic area. (R.J.S.) [es

  12. Urban Flow and Pollutant Dispersion Simulation with Multi-scale coupling of Meteorological Model with Computational Fluid Dynamic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yushi; Poh, Hee Joo

    2014-11-01

    The Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis has become increasingly important in modern urban planning in order to create highly livable city. This paper presents a multi-scale modeling methodology which couples Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with open source CFD simulation tool, OpenFOAM. This coupling enables the simulation of the wind flow and pollutant dispersion in urban built-up area with high resolution mesh. In this methodology meso-scale model WRF provides the boundary condition for the micro-scale CFD model OpenFOAM. The advantage is that the realistic weather condition is taken into account in the CFD simulation and complexity of building layout can be handled with ease by meshing utility of OpenFOAM. The result is validated against the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Tests in Oklahoma City and there is reasonably good agreement between the CFD simulation and field observation. The coupling of WRF- OpenFOAM provide urban planners with reliable environmental modeling tool in actual urban built-up area; and it can be further extended with consideration of future weather conditions for the scenario studies on climate change impact.

  13. Prediction of minimum temperatures in an alpine region by linear and non-linear post-processing of meteorological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Barbiero

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Model Output Statistics (MOS refers to a method of post-processing the direct outputs of numerical weather prediction (NWP models in order to reduce the biases introduced by a coarse horizontal resolution. This technique is especially useful in orographically complex regions, where large differences can be found between the NWP elevation model and the true orography. This study carries out a comparison of linear and non-linear MOS methods, aimed at the prediction of minimum temperatures in a fruit-growing region of the Italian Alps, based on the output of two different NWPs (ECMWF T511–L60 and LAMI-3. Temperature, of course, is a particularly important NWP output; among other roles it drives the local frost forecast, which is of great interest to agriculture. The mechanisms of cold air drainage, a distinctive aspect of mountain environments, are often unsatisfactorily captured by global circulation models. The simplest post-processing technique applied in this work was a correction for the mean bias, assessed at individual model grid points. We also implemented a multivariate linear regression on the output at the grid points surrounding the target area, and two non-linear models based on machine learning techniques: Neural Networks and Random Forest. We compare the performance of all these techniques on four different NWP data sets. Downscaling the temperatures clearly improved the temperature forecasts with respect to the raw NWP output, and also with respect to the basic mean bias correction. Multivariate methods generally yielded better results, but the advantage of using non-linear algorithms was small if not negligible. RF, the best performing method, was implemented on ECMWF prognostic output at 06:00 UTC over the 9 grid points surrounding the target area. Mean absolute errors in the prediction of 2 m temperature at 06:00 UTC were approximately 1.2°C, close to the natural variability inside the area itself.

  14. Implementation of a Model Output Statistics based on meteorological variable screening for short‐term wind power forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ranaboldo, Matteo; Giebel, Gregor; Codina, Bernat

    2013-01-01

    A combination of physical and statistical treatments to post‐process numerical weather predictions (NWP) outputs is needed for successful short‐term wind power forecasts. One of the most promising and effective approaches for statistical treatment is the Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique....... The proposed MOS performed well in both wind farms, and its forecasts compare positively with an actual operative model in use at Risø DTU and other MOS types, showing minimum BIAS and improving NWP power forecast of around 15% in terms of root mean square error. Further improvements could be obtained...

  15. Women in Meteorology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemone, Margaret A.; Waukau, Patricia L.

    1982-11-01

    The names of 927 women who are or have been active in meteorology or closely related fields have been obtained from various sources. Of these women, at least 500 are presently active. An estimated 4-5% of the total number of Ph.D.s in meteorology are awarded to women. About 10% of those receiving B.S. and M.S. degrees are women.The work patterns, accomplishments, and salaries of employed women meteorologists have been summarized from 330 responses to questionnaires, as functions of age, family status, part- or full-time working status, and employing institutions. It was found that women meteorologists holding Ph.D.s are more likely than their male counterparts to be employed by universities. As increasing number of women were employed in operational meteorology, although few of them were married and fewer still responsible for children. Several women were employed by private industry and some had advanced into managerial positions, although at the present time, such positions remain out of the reach of most women.The subjective and objective effects of several gender-related factors have been summarized from the comments and responses to the questionnaires. The primary obstacles to advancement were found to be part-time work and the responsibility for children. Part-time work was found to have a clearly negative effect on salary increase as a function of age. prejudicated discrimination and rules negatively affecting women remain important, especially to the older women, and affirmative action programs are generally seen as beneficial.Surprisingly, in contrast to the experience of women in other fields of science, women Ph.D.s in meteorology earn salaries comparable of their employment in government or large corporations and universities where there are strong affirmative action programs and above-average salaries. Based on the responses to the questionnaire, the small size of the meteorological community is also a factor, enabling women to become recognized

  16. Impact of Highly Reflective Materials on Meteorology, PM10 and Ozone in Urban Areas: A Modeling Study with WRF-CHIMERE at High Resolution over Milan (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serena Falasca

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The Urban Heat Island (UHI is a well-known phenomenon concerning an increasing percentage of the world’s population due to the growth rates of metropolitan areas. Given the health and economic implications of UHIs, several mitigation techniques are being evaluated and tested. In this study, we consider the use of highly reflective materials for urban surfaces, and we carried out numerical experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the CHIMERE model in order to investigate the effects of these materials on the meteorology and air quality in the urban area of Milan (Italy. Results show that an increase in albedo from 0.2 to 0.7 for urban roofs, walls and streets leads to a decrease in UHI intensity by up to 2–3 °C and of the planetary boundary layer (PBL height of about 500 m. However, the difference of PM10 and ozone between urban and surrounding areas increases by a factor of about 2, attributable to the reduction of PBL height and wind speed and to the increased reflected solar radiation that may enhance photochemical production during the daytime. Therefore, if anthropogenic emissions are held at the same levels, the potential benefit to the UHI in terms of thermal discomfort may have negative repercussions on air quality.

  17. Evaluation of meteorological parameters over a coniferous forest in a single-column chemistry-climate model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ganzeveld, L.N.; Klemm, O.; Rappenglück, B.; Valverde-Canossa, J.

    2006-01-01

    The simulated micrometerology by a single-column chemistry-climate model (SCM) has been evaluated by comparison with BEWA2000 field campaign measurements over a coniferous forest, July-August 2001. This comparison indicates the limitations in the representation of the SCM's micrometeorological

  18. Meteorological modeling of arrival and deposition of fallout at intermediate distances downwind of the Nevada Test Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cederwall, R.T.; Peterson, K.R.

    1990-01-01

    A three-dimensional atmospheric transport and diffusion model is used to calculate the arrival and deposition of fallout from 13 selected nuclear tests at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) in the 1950s. Results are used to extend NTS fallout patterns to intermediate downwind distances (300 to 1200 km). The radioactive cloud is represented in the model by a population of Lagrangian marker particles, with concentrations calculated on an Eulerian grid. Use of marker particles, with fall velocities dependent on particle size, provides a realistic simulation of fallout as the debris cloud travels downwind. The three-dimensional wind field is derived from observed data, adjusted for mass consistency. Terrain is represented in the grid, which extends up to 1200 km downwind of NTS and has 32-km horizontal resolution and 1-km vertical resolution. Ground deposition is calculated by a deposition-velocity approach. Source terms and relationships between deposition and exposure rate are based on work by Hicks. Uncertainty in particle size and vertical distributions within the debris cloud (and stem) allow for some model tuning to better match measured ground-deposition values. Particle trajectories representing different sizes and starting heights above ground zero are used to guide source specification. An hourly time history of the modeled fallout pattern as the debris cloud moves downwind provides estimates of fallout arrival times. Results for event HARRY illustrate the methodology. The composite deposition pattern for all 13 tests is characterized by two lobes extending out to the north-northeast and east-northeast, respectively, at intermediate distances from NTS. Arrival estimates, along with modeled deposition values, augment measured deposition data in the development of data bases at the county level

  19. A wavelet-coupled support vector machine model for forecasting global incident solar radiation using limited meteorological dataset

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deo, Ravinesh C.; Wen, Xiaohu; Qi, Feng

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A forecasting model for short- and long-term global incident solar radiation (R_n) has been developed. • The support vector machine and discrete wavelet transformation algorithm has been integrated. • The precision of the wavelet-coupled hybrid model is assessed using several prediction score metrics. • The proposed model is an appealing tool for forecasting R_n in the present study region. - Abstract: A solar radiation forecasting model can be utilized is a scientific contrivance for investigating future viability of solar energy potentials. In this paper, a wavelet-coupled support vector machine (W-SVM) model was adopted to forecast global incident solar radiation based on the sunshine hours (S_t), minimum temperature (T_m_a_x), maximum temperature (T_m_a_x), windspeed (U), evaporation (E) and precipitation (P) as the predictor variables. To ascertain conclusive results, the merit of the W-SVM was benchmarked with the classical SVM model. For daily forecasting, sixteen months of data (01-March-2014 to 30-June-2015) partitioned into the train (65%) and test (35%) set for the three metropolitan stations (Brisbane City, Cairns Aero and Townsville Aero) were utilized. Data were decomposed into their wavelet sub-series by discrete wavelet transformation algorithm and summed up to create new series with one approximation and four levels of detail using Daubechies-2 mother wavelet. For daily forecasting, six model scenarios were formulated where the number of input was increased and the forecast was assessed by statistical metrics (correlation coefficient r; Willmott’s index d; Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient E_N_S; peak deviation P_d_v), distribution statistics and prediction errors (mean absolute error MAE; root mean square error RMSE; mean absolute percentage error MAPE; relative root mean square error RMSE). Results for daily forecasts showed that the W-SVM model outperformed the classical SVM model for optimum input combinations. A sensitivity

  20. High-resolution empirical geomagnetic field model TS07D: Investigating run-on-request and forecasting modes of operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, G. K.; Sitnov, M. I.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Vandegriff, J. D.; Tsyganenko, N. A.

    2010-12-01

    The dramatic increase of the geomagnetic field data volume available due to many recent missions, including GOES, Polar, Geotail, Cluster, and THEMIS, required at some point the appropriate qualitative transition in the empirical modeling tools. Classical empirical models, such as T96 and T02, used few custom-tailored modules to represent major magnetospheric current systems and simple data binning or loading-unloading inputs for their fitting with data and the subsequent applications. They have been replaced by more systematic expansions of the equatorial and field-aligned current contributions as well as by the advanced data-mining algorithms searching for events with the global activity parameters, such as the Sym-H index, similar to those at the time of interest, as is done in the model TS07D (Tsyganenko and Sitnov, 2007; Sitnov et al., 2008). The necessity to mine and fit data dynamically, with the individual subset of the database being used to reproduce the geomagnetic field pattern at every new moment in time, requires the corresponding transition in the use of the new empirical geomagnetic field models. It becomes more similar to runs-on-request offered by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center for many first principles MHD and kinetic codes. To provide this mode of operation for the TS07D model a new web-based modeling tool has been created and tested at the JHU/APL (http://geomag_field.jhuapl.edu/model/), and we discuss the first results of its performance testing and validation, including in-sample and out-of-sample modeling of a number of CME- and CIR-driven magnetic storms. We also report on the first tests of the forecasting version of the TS07D model, where the magnetospheric part of the macro-parameters involved in the data-binning process (Sym-H index and its trend parameter) are replaced by their solar wind-based analogs obtained using the Burton-McPherron-Russell approach.

  1. Modelling deposition and air concentration of reduced nitrogen in Poland and sensitivity to variability in annual meteorology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kryza, Maciej; Dore, Anthony J; Błaś, Marek; Sobik, Mieczysław

    2011-04-01

    The relative contribution of reduced nitrogen to acid and eutrophic deposition in Europe has increased recently as a result of European policies which have been successful in reducing SO(2) and NO(x) emissions but have had smaller impacts on ammonia (NH(3)) emissions. In this paper the Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange (FRAME) model was used to calculate the spatial patterns of annual average ammonia and ammonium (NH(4)(+)) air concentrations and reduced nitrogen (NH(x)) dry and wet deposition with a 5 km × 5 km grid for years 2002-2005. The modelled air concentrations of NH(3) and dry deposition of NH(x) show similar spatial patterns for all years considered. The largest year to year changes were found for wet deposition, which vary considerably with precipitation amount. The FRAME modelled air concentrations and wet deposition are in reasonable agreement with available measurements (Pearson's correlation coefficients above 0.6 for years 2002-2005), and with spatial patterns of concentrations and deposition of NH(x) reported with the EMEP results, but show larger spatial gradients. The error statistics show that the FRAME model results are in better agreement with measurements if compared with EMEP estimates. The differences in deposition budgets calculated with FRAME and EMEP do not exceed 17% for wet and 6% for dry deposition, with FRAME estimates higher than for EMEP wet deposition for modelled period and lower or equal for dry deposition. The FRAME estimates of wet deposition budget are lower than the measurement-based values reported by the Chief Inspectorate of Environmental Protection of Poland, with the differences by approximately 3%. Up to 93% of dry and 53% of wet deposition of NH(x) in Poland originates from national sources. Over the western part of Poland and mountainous areas in the south, transboundary transport can contribute over 80% of total (dry + wet) NH(x) deposition. The spatial pattern of the relative contribution of

  2. Simulating the meteorology and PM10 concentrations in Arizona dust storms using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (Wrf-Chem).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyde, Peter; Mahalov, Alex; Li, Jialun

    2018-03-01

    Nine dust storms in south-central Arizona were simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry model (WRF-Chem) at 2 km resolution. The windblown dust emission algorithm was the Air Force Weather Agency model. In comparison with ground-based PM 10 observations, the model unevenly reproduces the dust-storm events. The model adequately estimates the location and timing of the events, but it is unable to precisely replicate the magnitude and timing of the elevated hourly concentrations of particles 10 µm and smaller ([PM 10 ]).Furthermore, the model underestimated [PM 10 ] in highly agricultural Pinal County because it underestimated surface wind speeds and because the model's erodible fractions of the land surface data were too coarse to effectively resolve the active and abandoned agricultural lands. In contrast, the model overestimated [PM 10 ] in western Arizona along the Colorado River because it generated daytime sea breezes (from the nearby Gulf of California) for which the surface-layer speeds were too strong. In Phoenix, AZ, the model's performance depended on the event, with both under- and overestimations partly due to incorrect representation of urban features. Sensitivity tests indicate that [PM 10 ] highly relies on meteorological forcing. Increasing the fraction of erodible surfaces in the Pinal County agricultural areas improved the simulation of [PM 10 ] in that region. Both 24-hr and 1-hr measured [PM 10 ] were, for the most part, and especially in Pinal County, extremely elevated, with the former exceeding the health standard by as much as 10-fold and the latter exceeding health-based guidelines by as much as 70-fold. Monsoonal thunderstorms not only produce elevated [PM 10 ], but also cause urban flash floods and disrupt water resource deliveries. Given the severity and frequency of these dust storms, and conceding that the modeling system applied in this work did not produce the desired agreement between simulations and

  3. Producing physically consistent and bias free extreme precipitation events over the Switzerland: Bridging gaps between meteorology and impact models

    Science.gov (United States)

    José Gómez-Navarro, Juan; Raible, Christoph C.; Blumer, Sandro; Martius, Olivia; Felder, Guido

    2016-04-01

    Extreme precipitation episodes, although rare, are natural phenomena that can threat human activities, especially in areas densely populated such as Switzerland. Their relevance demands the design of public policies that protect public assets and private property. Therefore, increasing the current understanding of such exceptional situations is required, i.e. the climatic characterisation of their triggering circumstances, severity, frequency, and spatial distribution. Such increased knowledge shall eventually lead us to produce more reliable projections about the behaviour of these events under ongoing climate change. Unfortunately, the study of extreme situations is hampered by the short instrumental record, which precludes a proper characterization of events with return period exceeding few decades. This study proposes a new approach that allows studying storms based on a synthetic, but physically consistent database of weather situations obtained from a long climate simulation. Our starting point is a 500-yr control simulation carried out with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In a second step, this dataset is dynamically downscaled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to a final resolution of 2 km over the Alpine area. However, downscaling the full CESM simulation at such high resolution is infeasible nowadays. Hence, a number of case studies are previously selected. This selection is carried out examining the precipitation averaged in an area encompassing Switzerland in the ESM. Using a hydrological criterion, precipitation is accumulated in several temporal windows: 1 day, 2 days, 3 days, 5 days and 10 days. The 4 most extreme events in each category and season are selected, leading to a total of 336 days to be simulated. The simulated events are affected by systematic biases that have to be accounted before this data set can be used as input in hydrological models. Thus, quantile mapping is used to remove such biases. For this task

  4. Tsengwen Reservoir Watershed Hydrological Flood Simulation Under Global Climate Change Using the 20 km Mesh Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuaki Kimura

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Severe rainstorms have occurred more frequently in Taiwan over the last decade. To understand the flood characteristics of a local region under climate change, a hydrological model simulation was conducted for the Tsengwen Reservoir watershed. The model employed was the Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS, which has a conceptual, distributed rainfall-runoff analysis module and a GIS data-input function. The high-resolution rainfall data for flood simulation was categorized into three terms: 1979 - 2003 (Present, 2015 - 2039 (Near-future, and 2075 - 2099 (Future, provided by the Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM. Ten extreme rainfall (top ten events were selected for each term in descending order of total precipitation volume. Due to the small watershed area the MRI-AGCM3.2S data was downsized into higher resolution data using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The simulated discharges revealed that most of the Near-future and Future peaks caused by extreme rainfall increased compared to the Present peak. These ratios were 0.8 - 1.6 (Near-future/Present and 0.9 - 2.2 (Future/Present, respectively. Additionally, we evaluated how these future discharges would affect the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity, specifically the excess water volume required to be stored while maintaining dam releases up to the dam¡¦s spillway capacity or the discharge peak design for flood prevention. The results for the top ten events show that the excess water for the Future term exceeded the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity and was approximately 79.6 - 87.5% of the total reservoir maximum capacity for the discharge peak design scenario.

  5. The Mexican hydro-meteorological disasters and climate network (redesclim) as model on outreach decision makers on disaster public policy in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welsh-Rodriguez, C. M.; Rodriguez-Estevez, J. M., Sr.; Romo-Aguilar, M. D. L.; Brito-Castillo, L.; Salinas-Prieto, A.; Gonzalez-Sosa, E.; Pérez-Campuzano, E.

    2017-12-01

    REDESCLIM was designed and develop in 2011 due to a public call from The Science and Technology Mexican Council (CONACYT); CONACYT lead the activities for its organization and development among the academic community. REDESCLIM was created to enhance the capacity of response to hydro-meteorological disasters and climate events through an integrative effort of researchers, technologists, entrepreneurs, politicians and society. Brief summary of our objectives: 1) Understand the causes of disasters, to reduce risks to society and ecosystems 2) Support research and interdisciplinary assessment of the physical processes in natural and social phenomena to improve understanding of causes and impacts 3) Strengths collaboration with academic, government, private and other interdisciplinary networks from Mexico and other countries 4) Build human capacity and promote the development of skills 5) Recommend strategies for climate hazard prevention, mitigation and response, especially for hazard with the greatest impacts in Mexico, such as hurricanes, floods, drought, wild fires and other extremes events. We provide a continues communication channel on members research results to provide scientific information that could be used for different proposes, specificaly for decision makers who are dealing with ecological and hydro meteorological problems that can result in disasters, and provide a services menu based on the members scientific projects, publications, teaching courses, in order to impact public policy as final result. http://www.redesclim.org.mx. So far we have some basic results: Fiver national meetings (participants from 35 countries around the world), 7 Workshops and seminars (virtual and in-person), Climatic data platforms ( http://clicom.mex.cicese.mx, http://clicom-mex.cicese.mx/malla, http://atlasclimatico.unam.mx/REDESCLIM2/ ), climate change scenarios for the general public at http://escenarios.inecc.gob.mx, 14 seed projects, one model to hurricane simulation

  6. Evaluating meteorological data from weather stations, and from satellites and global models for a multi-site epidemiological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colston, Josh M; Ahmed, Tahmeed; Mahopo, Cloupas; Kang, Gagandeep; Kosek, Margaret; de Sousa Junior, Francisco; Shrestha, Prakash Sunder; Svensen, Erling; Turab, Ali; Zaitchik, Benjamin

    2018-04-21

    Longitudinal and time series analyses are needed to characterize the associations between hydrometeorological parameters and health outcomes. Earth Observation (EO) climate data products derived from satellites and global model-based reanalysis have the potential to be used as surrogates in situations and locations where weather-station based observations are inadequate or incomplete. However, these products often lack direct evaluation at specific sites of epidemiological interest. Standard evaluation metrics of correlation, agreement, bias and error were applied to a set of ten hydrometeorological variables extracted from two quasi-global, commonly used climate data products - the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) - to evaluate their performance relative to weather-station derived estimates at the specific geographic locations of the eight sites in a multi-site cohort study. These metrics were calculated for both daily estimates and 7-day averages and for a rotavirus-peak-season subset. Then the variables from the two sources were each used as predictors in longitudinal regression models to test their association with rotavirus infection in the cohort after adjusting for covariates. The availability and completeness of station-based validation data varied depending on the variable and study site. The performance of the two gridded climate models varied considerably within the same location and for the same variable across locations, according to different evaluation criteria and for the peak-season compared to the full dataset in ways that showed no obvious pattern. They also differed in the statistical significance of their association with the rotavirus outcome. For some variables, the station-based records showed a strong association while the EO-derived estimates showed none, while for others, the opposite was true. Researchers wishing to utilize publicly available climate data

  7. Study on the cloud detection of GOCI by using the simulated surface reflectance from BRDF-model for the land application and meteorological utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hye-Won; Yeom, Jong-Min; Woo, Sun-Hee; Chae, Tae-Byeong

    2016-04-01

    COMS (Communication, Ocean, and Meteorological Satellite) was launched at French Guiana Kourou space center on 27 June 2010. Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI), which is the first ocean color geostationary satellite in the world for observing the ocean phenomena, is able to obtain the scientific data per an hour from 00UTC to 07UTC. Moreover, the spectral channels of GOCI would enable not only monitoring for the ocean, but for extracting the information of the land surface over the Korean Peninsula, Japan, and Eastern China. Since it is extremely important to utilize GOCI data accurately for the land application, cloud pixels over the surface have to be removed. Unfortunately, infra-red (IR) channels that can easily detect the water vapor with the cloud top temperature, are not included in the GOCI sensor. In this paper, the advanced cloud masking algorithm will be proposed with visible and near-IR (NIR) bands that are within GOCI bands. The main obstacle of cloud masking with GOCI is how to handle the high variable surface reflectance, which is mainly depending on the solar zenith angle. In this study, we use semi-empirical BRDF model to simulate the surface reflectance by using 16 day composite cloudy free image. When estimating the simulated surface reflectance, same geometry for GOCI observation was applied. The simulated surface reflectance is used to discriminate cloud areas especially for the thin cloud and shows more reasonable result than original threshold methods.

  8. Development of a model for predicting the dry matter production of mulberry [Morus alba] based on meteorological factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukui, K.; Ito, D.

    1999-01-01

    It is necessary to predict mulberry growth and yield precisely at any time during the growing period, since mulberry trees are cut anytime along with the increase of the frequency of silkworm rearing per year. Therefore, in this study, attempts were made to develop a model to predict the dry matter production in mulberry fields with standard density with the cooperation of the prefectural experimental stations of Ibaraki, Tochigi, Gunma, Saitama, Tokyo and Gifu. To construct the model, we conducted three experiments. In the first year, we estimated the dry weight of mulberry new shoots based on the length and base width. Logarithm of leaf dry weight of a new shoot was regressed linearly on the logarithm of the product of length and base width. Stem dry weight was estimated with a linear regression of the logarithm on the logarithm of the product of length and base square width. In the next year, we evaluated the maximal effective radiation (Smax) of mulberry, over which mulberry cannot use radiation to produce dry matter. This experiment included shaded and control (non-shaded) plots, and the difference between these plots was analyzed. Shading treatment decreased the dry matter production, but did not affect the radiation conversion efficiency. Shoot dry matter production increased almost proportionally with intercepted radiation except for the later growth periods. Therefore, no Smax was revealed in mulberry fields with standard density. The effect of temperature and growth stage on the radiation conversion efficiency was investigated last year. Relation of temperature and radiation conversion efficiency was not clear for shoot dry matter production. However, there was a positive relation for stem dry mater production. Although the efficiency decreased with mulberry growth for leaf dry matter production, it increased at the early growth stage and decreased at the late stage for stem dry matter production

  9. Voluntary Wheel Running in Mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goh, Jorming; Ladiges, Warren

    2015-12-02

    Voluntary wheel running in the mouse is used to assess physical performance and endurance and to model exercise training as a way to enhance health. Wheel running is a voluntary activity in contrast to other experimental exercise models in mice, which rely on aversive stimuli to force active movement. This protocol consists of allowing mice to run freely on the open surface of a slanted, plastic saucer-shaped wheel placed inside a standard mouse cage. Rotations are electronically transmitted to a USB hub so that frequency and rate of running can be captured via a software program for data storage and analysis for variable time periods. Mice are individually housed so that accurate recordings can be made for each animal. Factors such as mouse strain, gender, age, and individual motivation, which affect running activity, must be considered in the design of experiments using voluntary wheel running. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

  10. Analysis of source regions and meteorological factors for the variability of spring PM10 concentrations in Seoul, Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jangho; Kim, Kwang-Yul

    2018-02-01

    CSEOF analysis is applied for the springtime (March, April, May) daily PM10 concentrations measured at 23 Ministry of Environment stations in Seoul, Korea for the period of 2003-2012. Six meteorological variables at 12 pressure levels are also acquired from the ERA Interim reanalysis datasets. CSEOF analysis is conducted for each meteorological variable over East Asia. Regression analysis is conducted in CSEOF space between the PM10 concentrations and individual meteorological variables to identify associated atmospheric conditions for each CSEOF mode. By adding the regressed loading vectors with the mean meteorological fields, the daily atmospheric conditions are obtained for the first five CSEOF modes. Then, HYSPLIT model is run with the atmospheric conditions for each CSEOF mode in order to back trace the air parcels and dust reaching Seoul. The K-means clustering algorithm is applied to identify major source regions for each CSEOF mode of the PM10 concentrations in Seoul. Three main source regions identified based on the mean fields are: (1) northern Taklamakan Desert (NTD), (2) Gobi Desert and (GD), and (3) East China industrial area (ECI). The main source regions for the mean meteorological fields are consistent with those of previous study; 41% of the source locations are located in GD followed by ECI (37%) and NTD (21%). Back trajectory calculations based on CSEOF analysis of meteorological variables identify distinct source characteristics associated with each CSEOF mode and greatly facilitate the interpretation of the PM10 variability in Seoul in terms of transportation route and meteorological conditions including the source area.

  11. Application of a Fuzzy Verification Technique for Assessment of the Weather Running Estimate-Nowcast (WRE-N) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-01

    Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface; 2016 Sep 1; Atlanta (GA): American Meteorological Society [accessed 2016 Aug 2]. http://ams.confex.com/ams...Stauffer D, Gaudet B, Dudhia J, Hacker J, Bruyere C, Wu W, Vandenberghe F, Liu Y, Bourgeois A. Update on the WRF-ARW end-to-end multi-scale FDDA...convective parameterization: an update. J App Meteo. 2004;43:170–181. Liu Y, Bourgeois A, Warner T, Swerdlin S, Hacker J. Implementation of observation

  12. A hybrid land-water-environment model for identification of ecological effect and risk under uncertain meteorological precipitation in an agroforestry ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Xueting; Li, Tienan; Chen, Cong; Si, Zhenjiang; Huang, Guohe; Guo, Ping; Zhuang, Xiaowen

    2018-08-15

    In this study, a hybrid land-water-environment (LWE) model is developed for identifying ecological effect and risk under uncertain precipitation in an agroforestry ecosystem. A simulation-based fuzzy-stochastic programming with risk analysis (SFSR) method is used into LWE model to reflect the meteorological impacts; meanwhile, it also can quantify artificial fuzziness (e.g., risk attitude of policymaker) and natural vagueness (e.g., ecological function) in decision-making. The developed LWE model with SFSR method is applied to a practical agroforestry ecosystem in China. Results of optimized planting scale, irrigative water schedule, pollution mitigation scheme, and system benefit under changed rainfall, precise risk-adoption and vague ecological function are obtained; meanwhile their corresponding ecological effects and risks are analyzed. It found that current LWE plans could generate massive water deficits (e.g., 23.22×10 6 m 3 in crop irrigation and 26.32×10 6 m 3 in forest protection at highest) due to over-cultivation and excessive pollution discharges (e.g., the highest excessive TP and TN discharges would reach 460.64 and 15.30×10 3 ton) due to irrational fertilization, which would increase regional ecological risks. In addition, fifteen scenarios associated with withdrawing cultivation and recovering forest based on regional environment heterogeneity (such as soil types) have been discussed to adjust current agriculture-environment policies. It found that, the excessive pollution discharges (TN and TP) could be reduced 12.95% and 18.32% at highest through ecological expansions, which would generate higher system benefits than that without withdrawing farmland and recovering forest. All above can facilitate local policymakers to modulate a comprehensive LWE with more sustainable and robust manners, achieving regional harmony between socio-economy and eco-environment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Meteorological Drivers of Extreme Air Pollution Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, D. E.; Schnell, J.; Callahan, C. W.; Suo, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The accumulation of pollutants in the near-surface atmosphere has been shown to have deleterious consequences for public health, agricultural productivity, and economic vitality. Natural and anthropogenic emissions of ozone and particulate matter can accumulate to hazardous concentrations when atmospheric conditions are favorable, and can reach extreme levels when such conditions persist. Favorable atmospheric conditions for pollutant accumulation include optimal temperatures for photochemical reaction rates, circulation patterns conducive to pollutant advection, and a lack of ventilation, dispersion, and scavenging in the local environment. Given our changing climate system and the dual ingredients of poor air quality - pollutants and the atmospheric conditions favorable to their accumulation - it is important to characterize recent changes in favorable meteorological conditions, and quantify their potential contribution to recent extreme air pollution events. To facilitate our characterization, this study employs the recently updated Schnell et al (2015) 1°×1° gridded observed surface ozone and particulate matter datasets for the period of 1998 to 2015, in conjunction with reanalysis and climate model simulation data. We identify extreme air pollution episodes in the observational record and assess the meteorological factors of primary support at local and synoptic scales. We then assess (i) the contribution of observed meteorological trends (if extant) to the magnitude of the event, (ii) the return interval of the meteorological event in the observational record, simulated historical climate, and simulated pre-industrial climate, as well as (iii) the probability of the observed meteorological trend in historical and pre-industrial climates.

  14. Integrating meteorology into research on migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shamoun-Baranes, Judy; Bouten, Willem; van Loon, E Emiel

    2010-09-01

    Atmospheric dynamics strongly influence the migration of flying organisms. They affect, among others, the onset, duration and cost of migration, migratory routes, stop-over decisions, and flight speeds en-route. Animals move through a heterogeneous environment and have to react to atmospheric dynamics at different spatial and temporal scales. Integrating meteorology into research on migration is not only challenging but it is also important, especially when trying to understand the variability of the various aspects of migratory behavior observed in nature. In this article, we give an overview of some different modeling approaches and we show how these have been incorporated into migration research. We provide a more detailed description of the development and application of two dynamic, individual-based models, one for waders and one for soaring migrants, as examples of how and why to integrate meteorology into research on migration. We use these models to help understand underlying mechanisms of individual response to atmospheric conditions en-route and to explain emergent patterns. This type of models can be used to study the impact of variability in atmospheric dynamics on migration along a migratory trajectory, between seasons and between years. We conclude by providing some basic guidelines to help researchers towards finding the right modeling approach and the meteorological data needed to integrate meteorology into their own research. © The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved.

  15. Using satellite data on meteorological and vegetation characteristics and soil surface humidity in the Land Surface Model for the vast territory of agricultural destination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzylev, Eugene; Startseva, Zoya; Uspensky, Alexander; Vasilenko, Eugene; Volkova, Elena; Kukharsky, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    The model of water and heat exchange between vegetation covered territory and atmosphere (LSM, Land Surface Model) for vegetation season has been developed to calculate soil water content, evapotranspiration, infiltration of water into the soil, vertical latent and sensible heat fluxes and other water and heat balances components as well as soil surface and vegetation cover temperatures and depth distributions of moisture and temperature. The LSM is suited for utilizing satellite-derived estimates of precipitation, land surface temperature and vegetation characteristics and soil surface humidity for each pixel. Vegetation and meteorological characteristics being the model parameters and input variables, correspondingly, have been estimated by ground observations and thematic processing measurement data of scanning radiometers AVHRR/NOAA, SEVIRI/Meteosat-9, -10 (MSG-2, -3) and MSU-MR/Meteor-M № 2. Values of soil surface humidity has been calculated from remote sensing data of scatterometers ASCAT/MetOp-A, -B. The case study has been carried out for the territory of part of the agricultural Central Black Earth Region of European Russia with area of 227300 km2 located in the forest-steppe zone for years 2012-2015 vegetation seasons. The main objectives of the study have been: - to built estimates of precipitation, land surface temperatures (LST) and vegetation characteristics from MSU-MR measurement data using the refined technologies (including algorithms and programs) of thematic processing satellite information matured on AVHRR and SEVIRI data. All technologies have been adapted to the area of interest; - to investigate the possibility of utilizing satellite-derived estimates of values above in the LSM including verification of obtained estimates and development of procedure of their inputting into the model. From the AVHRR data there have been built the estimates of precipitation, three types of LST: land skin temperature Tsg, air temperature at a level of

  16. Motivation dimensions for running a marathon: A new model emerging from the Motivation of Marathon Scale (MOMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sima Zach

    2017-09-01

    Conclusion: This study provides a sound and solid framework for studying motivation for physically demanding tasks such as marathon runs, and needs to be similarly applied and tested in studies incorporating physical tasks which vary in mental demands.

  17. Wheel running from a juvenile age delays onset of specific motor deficits but does not alter protein aggregate density in a mouse model of Huntington's disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Spires Tara L

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Huntington's disease (HD is a neurodegenerative disorder predominantly affecting the cerebral cortex and striatum. Transgenic mice (R6/1 line, expressing a CAG repeat encoding an expanded polyglutamine tract in the N-terminus of the huntingtin protein, closely model HD. We have previously shown that environmental enrichment of these HD mice delays the onset of motor deficits. Furthermore, wheel running initiated in adulthood ameliorates the rear-paw clasping motor sign, but not an accelerating rotarod deficit. Results We have now examined the effects of enhanced physical activity via wheel running, commenced at a juvenile age (4 weeks, with respect to the onset of various behavioral deficits and their neuropathological correlates in R6/1 HD mice. HD mice housed post-weaning with running wheels only, to enhance voluntary physical exercise, have delayed onset of a motor co-ordination deficit on the static horizontal rod, as well as rear-paw clasping, although the accelerating rotarod deficit remains unaffected. Both wheel running and environmental enrichment rescued HD-induced abnormal habituation of locomotor activity and exploratory behavior in the open field. We have found that neither environment enrichment nor wheel running ameliorates the shrinkage of the striatum and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC in HD mice, nor the overall decrease in brain weight, measured at 9 months of age. At this age, the density of ubiquitinated protein aggregates in the striatum and ACC is also not significantly ameliorated by environmental enrichment or wheel running. Conclusion These results indicate that enhanced voluntary physical activity, commenced at an early presymptomatic stage, contributes to the positive effects of environmental enrichment. However, sensory and cognitive stimulation, as well as motor stimulation not associated with running, may constitute major components of the therapeutic benefits associated with enrichment

  18. Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP : A new semi-closed input-output model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Quanrun; Dietzenbacher, Erik; Los, Bart; Yang, Cuihong

    In this study, we propose a new semi-closed input-output model, which reconciles input-output analysis with modern consumption theories. It can simulate changes in household consumption behavior when exogenous stimulus policies lead to higher disposable income levels. It is useful for quantifying

  19. Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP : A new semi-closed input-output model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Quanrun; Dietzenbacher, Erik; Los, Bart; Yang, Cuihong

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we propose a new semi-closed input-output model, which reconciles input-output analysis with modern consumption theories. It can simulate changes in household consumption behavior when exogenous stimulus policies lead to higher disposable income levels. It is useful for quantifying

  20. Modeling water and heat balance components of large territory for vegetation season using information from polar-orbital and geostationary meteorological satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzylev, Eugene; Startseva, Zoya; Uspensky, Alexander; Volkova, Elena; Kukharsky, Alexander; Uspensky, Sergey

    2015-04-01

    To date, physical-mathematical modeling processes of land surface-atmosphere interaction is considered to be the most appropriate tool for obtaining reliable estimates of water and heat balance components of large territories. The model of these processes (Land Surface Model, LSM) developed for vegetation period is destined for simulating soil water content W, evapotranspiration Ev, vertical latent LE and heat fluxes from land surface as well as vertically distributed soil temperature and moisture, soil surface Tg and foliage Tf temperatures, and land surface skin temperature (LST) Ts. The model is suitable for utilizing remote sensing data on land surface and meteorological conditions. In the study these data have been obtained from measurements by scanning radiometers AVHRR/NOAA, MODIS/EOS Terra and Aqua, SEVIRI/geostationary satellites Meteosat-9, -10 (MSG-2, -3). The heterogeneity of the land surface and meteorological conditions has been taken into account in the model by using soil and vegetation characteristics as parameters and meteorological characteristics as input variables. Values of these characteristics have been determined from ground observations and remote sensing information. So, AVHRR data have been used to build the estimates of effective land surface temperature (LST) Ts.eff and emissivity E, vegetation-air temperature (temperature at the vegetation level) Ta, normalized vegetation index NDVI, vegetation cover fraction B, the leaf area index LAI, and precipitation. From MODIS data the values of LST Tls, Å, NDVI, LAI have been derived. From SEVIRI data there have been retrieved Tls, E, Ta, NDVI, LAI and precipitation. All named retrievals covered the vast territory of the part of the agricultural Central Black Earth Region located in the steppe-forest zone of European Russia. This territory with coordinates 49°30'-54°N, 31°-43°E and a total area of 227,300 km2 has been chosen for investigation. It has been carried out for years 2009

  1. How to run 100 meters ?

    OpenAIRE

    Aftalion, Amandine

    2016-01-01

    A paraitre dans SIAP; The aim of this paper is to bring a mathematical justification to the optimal way of organizing one's effort when running. It is well known from physiologists that all running exercises of duration less than 3mn are run with a strong initial acceleration and a decelerating end; on the contrary, long races are run with a final sprint. This can be explained using a mathematical model describing the evolution of the velocity, the anaerobic energy, and the propulsive force: ...

  2. Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory conducts research to understand the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics and processes of the...

  3. Annual report of the Dynamic Meteorology Laboratory, 1986

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    Research on climate simulation; data assimilation and forecasting; nonlinear dynamics and atmospheric turbulence; wave dynamics in the middle atmosphere; African and tropical meteorology and climatology; spectroscopy and modeling of atmospheric radiation; satellite meteorology and climatology; and active lidar remote sensing is presented [fr

  4. Development of adequate meteorological monitoring standards for safety analysis of nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alp, E.; Lewis, P.J.

    1985-09-01

    The aim of this report is to identify what constitutes adequate meteorological information for airborne dispersion calculations in case of releases from nuclear facilities during 'normal operation', 'design postulated accidents', and 'emergency situations'. The models used for estimating downwind dispersion are reviewed, including short-range simple terrain, short-range complex terrain and medium to long range models with emphasis on Lagrangian models. The meteorogolical input parameters required for running these models are identified. The methods by which these parameters may be obtained from raw meteorological data are then considered. Emphasis is placed on well-tried and recommended methods rather than those which are currently being developed and lack long-term field tests. The meteorological data required to calculate the parameters that are in turn input to dispersion calculation methods can be obtained mainly from tower measurements. Recommended tower height is 50 m, with two levels of instruments (10 and 50 m) for wind speed, wind direction and temperature. Data for precipitation and solar radiation, that may be required under certain conditions and for special calculations, may be estimated from nearby representative weather stations (if available). For simple terrain, a single tower is sufficient. For complex terrain, such as coastal regions, two towers are desirable for accurate characterization of the turbulence regime in the vicinity of a release site. The report provides the necessary accuracy specifications for instruments required for the meteorological measurements. Data monitoring and recording, maintenance, quality control and assurance are also discussed. Error propagation analyses are recommended to determine the full implications of instrument accuracies on the accuracy of dispersion model predictions. 82 refs

  5. Meteorology ans solar physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Oliver

    When in the second half of the 19th century both solar physics and astrophysics came into existence, various solar phenomena were described by analogies encountered in the terrestrial atmosphere. For a certain time, meteorology played a central role in research on solar processes. At first glance, this may appear as a curious and old-fashioned specialty. However, solar physics owes its first insights into solar structure to various analogies in terrestrial atmospheric studies. The present investigation intends to elucidate this fact, to present details of the historical development, and to demonstrate how our present knowledge in certain fields is based on considerations which were originally taken from the description of the terrestrial atmosphere.

  6. Source fault model of the 2011 off the pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake, estimated from the detailed distribution of tsunami run-up heights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuta, Nobuhisa; Suzuki, Yasuhiro; Sugito, Nobuhiko; Nakata, Takashi; Watanabe, Mitsuhisa

    2015-01-01

    The distribution of tsunami run-up heights generally has spatial variations, because run-up heights are controlled by coastal topography including local-scale landforms such as natural levees, in addition to land use. Focusing on relationships among coastal topography, land conditions, and tsunami run-up heights of historical tsunamis—Meiji Sanriku (1896 A.D.), Syowa Sanriku (1933 A.D.), and Chilean Sanriku (1960 A.D.) tsunamis—along the Sanriku coast, it is found that the wavelength of a tsunami determines inundation areas as well as run-up heights. Small bays facing the Pacific Ocean are sensitive to short wavelength tsunamis, and large bays are sensitive to long wavelength tsunamis. The tsunami observed off Kamaishi during the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake was composed of both short and long wavelength components. We examined run-up heights of the Tohoku tsunami, and found that: (1) coastal areas north of Kamaishi and south of Yamamoto were mainly attacked by short wavelength tsunamis; and (2) no evidence of short wavelength tsunamis was observed from Ofunato to the Oshika Peninsula. This observation coincides with the geomorphologically proposed source fault model, and indicates that the extraordinary large slip along the shallow part of the plate boundary off Sendai, proposed by seismological and geodesic analyses, is not needed to explain the run-up heights of the Tohoku tsunami. To better understand spatial variations of tsunami run-up heights, submarine crustal movements, and source faults, a detailed analysis is required of coastal topography, land conditions, and submarine tectonic landforms from the perspective of geomorphology. (author)

  7. Meteorology as an infratechnology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, G. A.; Smith, L. A.

    2003-04-01

    From an economists perspective, meteorology is an underpinning or infratechnology in the sense that in general it does not of its own accord lead to actual products. Its value added comes from the application of its results to the activities of other forms of economic and technological activity. This contribution discusses both the potential applications of meteorology as an ininfratechnology, and quantifying its socio-economic impact. Large economic and social benefits are both likely in theory and can be identified in practice. Case studies of particular weather dependent industries or particular episodes are suggested, based on the methodology developed by NIST to analyze the social impact of technological innovation in US industries (see www.nist.gov/director/planning/strategicplanning.htm ). Infratechnologies can provide economic benefits in the support of markets. Incomplete information is a major cause of market failure because it inhibits the proper design of contracts. The performance of markets in general can be influenced by strategies adopted by different firms within a market to regulate the performance of others especially suppliers or purchasers. This contribution will focus on benefits to society from mechanisms which enhance and enforce mitigating actions. When the market mechanism fails, who might social benefits be gained, for example, by widening the scope of authorities to ensure that those who could have taken mitigating action, given prior warning, cover the costs. This goes beyond the design and implementation of civil responses to severe weather warnings to include the design of legislative recourse in the event of negligence given prior knowledge, or the modification of insurance contracts. The aim here, for example, would be to avoid the loss of an oil tanker in heavy seas at a location where a high probability of heavy seas had been forecast for some time.

  8. Comparison of extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy running models between outsourcing cooperation and rental cooperation conducted in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chih-Kuang; Ko, Ming-Chung; Chen, Shiou-Sheng; Lee, Wen-Kai; Shia, Ben-Chang; Chiang, Han-Sun

    2015-02-01

    We conducted a retrospective study to compare the cost and effectiveness between two different running models for extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (SWL), including the outsourcing cooperation model (OC) and the rental cooperation model (RC). Between January 1999 and December 2005, we implemented OC for the SWL, and from January 2006 to October 2011, RC was utilized. With OC, the cooperative company provided a machine and shared a variable payment with the hospital, according to treatment sessions. With RC, the cooperative company provided a machine and received a fixed rent from the hospital. We calculated the cost of each treatment session, and evaluated the break-even point to estimate the lowest number of treatment sessions to make the balance between revenue and cost every month. Effectiveness parameters, including the stone-free rate, the retreatment rate, the rate of additional procedures and complications, were evaluated. Compared with OC there were significantly less treatment sessions for RC every month (42.6±7.8 vs. 36.8±6.5, p=0.01). The cost of each treatment session was significantly higher for OC than for RC (751.6±20.0 USD vs. 684.7±16.7 USD, p=0.01). The break-even point for the hospital was 27.5 treatment sessions/month for OC, when the hospital obtained 40% of the payment, and it could be reduced if the hospital got a greater percentage. The break-even point for the hospital was 27.3 treatment sessions/month for RC. No significant differences were noticed for the stone-free rate, the retreatment rate, the rate of additional procedures and complications. Our study revealed that RC had a lower cost for every treatment session, and fewer treatment sessions of SWL/month than OC. The study might provide a managerial implication for healthcare organization managers, when they face a situation of high price equipment investment. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  9. The impact of urbanization during half a century on surface meteorology based on WRF model simulations over National Capital Region, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sati, Ankur Prabhat; Mohan, Manju

    2017-10-01

    An estimated 50% of the global population lives in the urban areas, and this percentage is projected to reach around 69% by the year 2050 (World Urbanization Prospects 2009). There is a considerable growth of urban and built-up area during the recent decades over National Capital Region (NCR) of India (17-fold increase in the urban extent). The proposed study estimates the land use land cover changes particularly changes to urban class from other land use types such as croplands, shrubland, open areas, and water bodies and quantify these changes for a span of about five decades. Further, the impact of these land use/land cover changes is examined on spatial and temporal variations of meteorological parameters using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model. The urbanized areas appear to be one of the regions with highest changes in the values of the fluxes and temperatures where during daytime, the surface sensible heat flux values show a noticeable increase of 60-70 W m-2 which commensurate with increase in urbanization. Similarly, the nighttime LST and T2m show an increase of 3-5 and 2-3 K, respectively. The diurnal temperature range (DTR) of LST and surface temperature also shows a decrease of about 5 and 2-3 K, respectively, with increasing urbanization. Significant decrease in the magnitude of surface winds and relative humidity is also observed over the areas converted to urban form over a period of half a century. The impacts shown here have serious implications on human health, energy consumption, ventilation, and atmospheric pollution.

  10. Assessment of Meteorological Drought Hazard Area using GIS in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael Horsfall

    The purpose of this study was to make a model of the meteorological drought hazard area using GIS. ... overlaying different hazard indicator maps in the GIS, deploying the new model. The final ..... Northeast Thailand Project Bangkok. Min. of.

  11. Quality Assurance Guidance for the Collection of Meteorological Data Using Passive Radiometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document augments the February 2000 guidance entitled Meteorological Monitoring Guidance for Regulatory Modeling Applications and the March 2008 guidance entitled Quality Assurance Handbook for Air Pollution Measurement Systems Volume IV: Meteorological Measurements Version ...

  12. Droning on about the Weather: Meteorological Science on a School-Friendly Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Phil; O'Neill, Ashley; Brown, Abby

    2016-01-01

    Meteorology is an important branch of science that offers exciting career opportunities and yet is not usually included in school curricula. The availability of multi-rotor model aircraft (drones) offers an exciting opportunity to bring meteorology into school science.

  13. Forecasting of meteorological drought using Wavelet-ANFIS hybrid model for different time steps (case study: Southeastern part of east Azerbaijan province, Iran)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shirmohammadi Chelan, Bagher; Moradi, Hamidreza; Moosavi, Vahid; Semiromi, Majid Taie; Zeinali, Ali

    2013-01-01

    Drought is accounted as one of the most natural hazards. Studying on drought is important for designing and managing of water resources systems. This research is carried out to evaluate the ability of Wavelet-ANN and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) techniques for meteorological drought

  14. Development of regional meteorological and atmospheric diffusion simulation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kubota, Ryuji; Iwashige, Kengo; Kasano, Toshio

    2002-01-01

    Regional atmospheric diffusion online network (RADON) with atmospheric diffusion analysis code (ADAC) : a simulation program of diffusion of radioactive materials, volcanic ash, pollen, NOx and SOx was developed. This system can be executed in personal computer (PC) and note PC on Windows. Emission data consists of online, offline and default data. It uses the meteorology data sources such as meteorological forecasting mesh data, automated meteorological data acquisition system (AMeDAS) data, meteorological observation data in site and municipality observation data. The meteorological forecasting mesh data shows forecasting value of temperature, wind speed, wind direction and humidity in about two days. The nuclear environmental monitoring center retains the online data (meteorological data, emission source data, monitoring station data) in its PC server and can run forecasting or repeating calculation using these data and store and print out the calculation results. About 30 emission materials can be calculated simultaneously. This system can simulate a series of weather from the past and real time to the future. (S.Y.)

  15. An 18-yr long (1993–2011 snow and meteorological dataset from a mid-altitude mountain site (Col de Porte, France, 1325 m alt. for driving and evaluating snowpack models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Morin

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available A quality-controlled snow and meteorological dataset spanning the period 1 August 1993–31 July 2011 is presented, originating from the experimental station Col de Porte (1325 m altitude, Chartreuse range, France. Emphasis is placed on meteorological data relevant to the observation and modelling of the seasonal snowpack. In-situ driving data, at the hourly resolution, consist of measurements of air temperature, relative humidity, windspeed, incoming short-wave and long-wave radiation, precipitation rate partitioned between snow- and rainfall, with a focus on the snow-dominated season. Meteorological data for the three summer months (generally from 10 June to 20 September, when the continuity of the field record is not warranted, are taken from a local meteorological reanalysis (SAFRAN, in order to provide a continuous and consistent gap-free record. Data relevant to snowpack properties are provided at the daily (snow depth, snow water equivalent, runoff and albedo and hourly (snow depth, albedo, runoff, surface temperature, soil temperature time resolution. Internal snowpack information is provided from weekly manual snowpit observations (mostly consisting in penetration resistance, snow type, snow temperature and density profiles and from a hourly record of temperature and height of vertically free ''settling'' disks. This dataset has been partially used in the past to assist in developing snowpack models and is presented here comprehensively for the purpose of multi-year model performance assessment. The data is placed on the PANGAEA repository (http://dx.doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.774249 as well as on the public ftp server ftp://ftp-cnrm.meteo.fr/pub-cencdp/.

  16. Search for gravitational waves from Scorpius X-1 in the first Advanced LIGO observing run with a hidden Markov model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, D.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Phythian-Adams, A.T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V. B.; Affeldt, C.; Afrough, M.; Agarwal, B.; Agatsuma, K.; Aggarwal, N.T.; Aguiar, O. D.; Aiello, L.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allen, G; Allocca, A.; Almoubayyed, H.; Altin, P. A.; Amato, A.; Ananyeva, A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Antier, S.; Appert, S.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Areeda, J. S.; Arnaud, N.; Arun, K. G.; Ascenzi, S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, M.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; AultONeal, K.; Avila-Alvarez, A.; Babak, S.; Bacon, P.; Bader, M. K. M.; Bae, S.; Baker, P. T.; Baldaccini, F.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Banagiri, S.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barclay, S. E.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, R.D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barta, D.; Bartlett, J.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Bawaj, M.; Bazzan, M.; Becsy, B.; Beer, C.; Bejger, M.; Belahcene, I.; Bell, A. S.; Berger, B. K.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Etienne, Z. B.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Billman, C. R.; Birch, D J; Birney, R.; Birnholtz, O.; Biscans, S.; Bisht, A.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackman, J.; Blair, C. D.; Blari, D. G.; Blair, R. M.; Bloemen, S.; Bock, O.; Bode, N.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, J.G.; Bohe, A.; Bondu, F.; Bonnand, R.; Boom, B. A.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bouffanais, Y.; Bozzi, A.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; Brau, J. E.; Briant, T.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brockill, P.; Broida, J. E.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, A.D.; Brown, D.; Brown, N. M.; Brunett, S.; Buchanan, C. C.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cabero, M.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cahillane, C.; Bustillo, J. Calderon; Callister, T. A.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Canepa, M.; Canizares, P.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, H.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Capocasa, E.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Carney, M. F.; Diaz, J. Casanueva; Casentini, C.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglia, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C. B.; Baiardi, L. Cerboni; Cerretani, G.; Cesarini, E.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chan, M.; Chao, D. S.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Chatterjee, D.; Cheeseboro, B. D.; Chen, H. Y.; Chen, Y; Cheng, H. -P.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Chmiel, T.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chua, A. J. K.; Chua, S. S. Y.; Chung, A. K. W.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Ciolfi, R.; Cirelli, C. E.; Cirone, A.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Cleva, F.; Cocchieri, C.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P. -F.; Colla, A.; Collette, C. G.; Cominsky, L. R.; Constancio, M., Jr.; Conti, L.; Cooper, S. J.; Corban, P.; Corbitt, T. R.; Corley, K. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Cortese, S.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coughlin, S. B.; Coulon, J. -P.; Countryman, S. T.; Couvares, P.; Covas, P. B.; Cowan, E. E.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cullen, T. J.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, Laura; Cuoco, E.; Dal Canton, T.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dasgupta, A.; Costa, C. F. Da Silva; Dattilo, V.; Dave, I.; Davier, M.; Davies, G. S.; Davis, D.; Daw, E. J.; Day, B.; De, S.; Debra, D.; Deelman, E; Degallaix, J.; De laurentis, M.; Deleglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dergachev, V.A.; Rosa, R.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Devenson, J.; Devine, R. C.; Dhurandhar, S.; Diaz, M. C.; Di Fiore, L.; Giovanni, M. Di; Di Girolamo, T.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Pace, S.; Di Palma, I.; Di Renzo, F.; Doctor, Z.; Dolique, V.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Dorrington, I.; Douglas, R.; Alvarez, M. Dovale; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Ducrot, M.; Duncan, J.; Dwyer, S. E.; Edo, T. B.; Edwards, M. C.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H. -B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Essick, R. C.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T. M.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fair, H.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Fauchon-Jones, E. J.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Feicht, J.; Fejer, M. M.; Fernandez-Galiana, A.; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Fiori, I.; Fiorucci, D.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Fletcher, M; Fong, H.; Forsyth, P. W. F.; Forsyth, S. S.; Fournier, J. -D.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Frey, V.; Fries, E. M.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gabbard, H.; Gabel, M.; Gadre, B. U.; Gaebel, S. M.; Gair, J. R.; Gammaitoni, L.; Ganija, M. R.; Gaonkar, S. G.; Garufi, F.; Gaudio, S.; Gaur, G.; Gayathri, V.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; George, D.J.; George, J.; Gergely, L.; Germain, V.; Ghonge, S.; Ghosh, Abhirup; Ghosh, Archisman; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, K.P.; Glover, L.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gomes, A.S.P.; Gonzalez, Idelmis G.; Castro, J. M. Gonzalez; Gopakumar, A.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S. E.; Lee-Gosselin, M.; Gouaty, R.; Grado, A.; Graef, C.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.M.; Greco, G.; Green, A. C.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Gruning, P.; Guidi, G. M.; Guo, X.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, M. K.; Gushwa, K. E.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hall, B. R.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.; Haney, M.; Hanke, M. M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannuksela, O. A.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M. J.; Haster, C. -J.; Haughian, K.; Healy, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Hennig, J.; Henry, J.A.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hofman, D.; Holt, K.; Holz, D. E.; Hopkins, P.; Horst, C.; Hough, J.; Houston, E. A.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huerta, E. A.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Intini, G.; Isa, H. N.; Isac, J. -M.; Isi, M.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacqmin, T.; Jani, K.; Jaranowski, P.; Jawahar, S.; Jimenez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W.; Jones, I.D.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; Junker, J.; Kalaghatgi, C. V.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Karki, S.; Karvinen, K. S.; Kasprzack, M.; Katolik, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, S.; Kawabe, K.; Kefelian, F.; Keitel, D.; Kemball, A. J.; Kennedy, R.E.; Kent, C.; Key, J. S.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, I.; Khan., S.; Khan, Z.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kijbunchoo, N.; Kim, Chunglee; Kim, J. C.; Kim, W.; Kim, S.W.; Kim, Y.M.; Kimbrell, S. J.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kirchhoff, R.; Kissel, J. S.; Kleybolte, L.; Klimenko, S.; Koch, P.; Koehlenbeck, S. M.; Koley, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kontos, A.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Kramer, C.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Krolak, A.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kumar, R.; Kumar, S.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Kwang-Cheol, S.; Lackey, B. D.; Lai, K. H.; Landry, M.; Lang, R. N.; Lange, J.; Lantz, B.; Lanza, R. K.; Lartaux-Vollard, A.; Lasky, P. D.; Laxen, M.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lee, C.H.; Lee, K.H.; Lee, M.H.; Lee, W. H.; Lee, K.; Lehmann, J.; Lenon, A.; Leonardi, M.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Li, T. G. F.; Libson, A.; Littenberg, T. B.; Liu, J.; Lockerbie, N. A.; London, L. T.; Lord, J. E.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J. D.; Lovelace, G.; Luck, H.; Lumaca, D.; Lundgren, A. P.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; Macfoy, S.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magana Hernandez, I.; Magana-Sandoval, F.; Magana Zertuche, L.; Magee, R. M.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Man, N.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Manske, M.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Marka, S.; Marka, Z.; Markakis, C.; Markosyan, A. S.; Maros, E.; Martelli, F.; Martellini, L.; Martin, I. W.; Martynov, D. V.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Masso-Reid, M.; Mastrogiovanni, S.; Matas, A.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mayani, R.; Mazumder, N.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McCormick, S.; McCuller, L.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McManus, D. J.; McRae, T.; McWilliams, S. T.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Meidam, J.; Mejuto-Villa, E.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mercer, R. A.; Merilh, E. L.; Merzougui, M.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Messick, C.; Metzdorff, R.; Meyers, P. M.; Mezzani, F.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Middleton, H.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Milano, L.; Miller, A. L.; Miller, A.; Miller, B. B.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Minazzoli, O.; Minenkov, Y.; Ming, J.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moggi, A.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Montani, M.; Moore, B.C.; Moore, C. J.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, G.; Muir, A. W.; Mukherjee, Arunava; Mukherjee, S.D.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukund, N.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Muniz, E. A. M.; Murray, P.G.; Napier, K.; Nardecchia, I.; Naticchioni, L.; Nayak, R. K.; Nelemans, G.; Nelson, T. J. N.; Gutierrez-Neri, M.; Nery, M.; Neunzert, A.; Newport, J. M.; Newton, G.; Ng, K. K. Y.; Nguyen, T. T.; Nichols, D.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A.; Noack, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E. N.; Nuttall, L. K.; Oberling, J.; Ochsner, E.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oliver, M.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, Richard J.; O'Reilly, B.; Ormiston, R.; Ortega, L. F.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ottaway, D. J.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Pace, A. E.; Page, J.; Page, M. A.; Pai, A.; Pai, S. A.; Palamos, J. R.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pang, B.; Pang, P. T. H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoli, A.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H. R.; Parker, W.S; Pascucci, D.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patricelli, B.; Pearlstone, B. L.; Pedraza, M.; Pedurand, R.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Castro-Perez, J.; Perreca, A.; Perri, L. M.; Pfeiffer, H. P.; Phelps, M.; Piccinni, O. J.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pillant, G.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poggiani, R.; Popolizio, P.; Porter, E. K.; Post, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Pratt, J. W. W.; Predoi, V.; Prestegard, T.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prix, R.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L. G.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Purrer, M.; Qi, H.; Qin, J.; Qiu, S.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E. A.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajan, C.; Rakhmanov, M.; Ramirez, K. E.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Read, J.; Regimbau, T.; Rei, L.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Rew, H.; Reyes, S. D.; Ricci, F.; Ricker, P. M.; Rieger, S.; Riles, K.; Rizzo, M.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V. J.; Romano, R.; Romel, C. L.; Romie, J. H.; Rosinska, D.; Ross, M. P.; Rowan, S.; Rudiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Rynge, M.; Sachdev, Perminder S; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Sakellariadou, M.; Salconi, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Samajdar, A.; Sammut, L.; Sampson, L. M.; Sanchez, E. J.; Sandberg, V.; Sandeen, B.; Sanders, J. R.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Sauter, O.; Savage, R. L.; Sawadsky, A.; Schale, P.; Scheuer, J.; Schmidt, E.; Schmidt, J; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.B.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schonbeck, A.; Schreiber, K.E.C.; Schuette, D.; Schulte, B. W.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwalbe, S. G.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Seidel, E.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Sergeev, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shaffer, T. J.; Shah, A.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shao, L.P.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Sheperd, A.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sieniawska, M.; Sigg, D.; Silva, António Dias da; Singer, A; Singer, L. P.; Singh, A.; Singh, R.; Singhal, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, B.; Smith, R. J. E.; Smith, R. J. E.; Son, E. J.; Sonnenberg, J. A.; Sorazu, B.; Sorrentino, F.; Souradeep, T.; Spencer, A. P.; Srivastava, A. K.; Staley, A.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Stratta, G.; Strigin, S. E.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, L.; Sunil, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B. L.; Szczepanczyk, M. J.; Tacca, M.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tapai, M.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, J. A.; Taylor, W.R.; Theeg, T.; Thomas, E. G.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Tiwari, S.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Toland, K.; Tonelli, M.; Tornasi, Z.; Torrie, C. I.; Toyra, D.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trifiro, D.; Trinastic, J.; Tringali, M. C.; Trozzo, L.; Tsang, K. W.; Tse, M.; Tso, R.; Tuyenbayev, D.; Ueno, K.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahi, K.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; van Bakel, N.; Van Beuzekom, Martin; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.F.F.; Vander-Hyde, D. C.; van der Schaaf, L.; van Heijningen, J. V.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vardaro, M.; Varma, V.; Vass, S.; Vasuth, M.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P.J.; Venkateswara, K.; Venugopalan, G.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Vicere, A.; Viets, A. D.; Vinciguerra, S.; Vine, D. J.; Vinet, J. -Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Voss, D. V.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L. E.; Wade, MT; Walet, R.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, G.; Wang, H.; Wang, J. Z.; Wang, M.; Wang, Y. -F.; Wang, Y. -F.; Ward, L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Watchi, J.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L. -W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.; Wessel, E. K.; Wessels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whiting, B. F.; Whittle, C.; Williams, D.; Williams, D.R.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M. H.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Woehler, J.; Wofford, J.; Wong, G.W.K.; Worden, J.; Wright, J.L.; Wu, D.S.; Wu, G.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yap, M. J.; Yu, Hang; Yu, Haocun; Yvert, M.; Zadrozny, A.; Zanolin, M.; Zelenova, T.; Zendri, J. -P.; Zevin, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, T.; Zhang, Y. -H.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, X. J.; Zucker, M. E.; Zweizig, J.; Suvorova, S.; Moran, W.; Evans, J.R.

    2017-01-01

    Results are presented from a semicoherent search for continuous gravitational waves from the brightest low-mass X-ray binary, Scorpius X-1, using data collected during the first Advanced LIGO observing run. The search combines a frequency domain matched filter (Bessel-weighted F-statistic) with a

  17. Sensitivity of the modelled deposition of Caesium-137 from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant to the wet deposition parameterisation in NAME

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leadbetter, Susan J.; Hort, Matthew C.; Jones, Andrew R.; Webster, Helen N.; Draxler, Roland R.

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes an investigation into the impact of different meteorological data sets and different wet scavenging coefficients on the model predictions of radionuclide deposits following the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. Three separate operational meteorological data sets, the UK Met Office global meteorology, the ECMWF global meteorology and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) mesoscale meteorology as well as radar rainfall analyses from JMA were all used as inputs to the UK Met Office's dispersion model NAME (the Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment). The model predictions of Caesium-137 deposits based on these meteorological models all showed good agreement with observations of deposits made in eastern Japan with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.44 to 0.80. Unexpectedly the NAME run using radar rainfall data had a lower correlation coefficient (R = 0.66), when compared to observations, than the run using the JMA mesoscale model rainfall (R = 0.76) or the run using ECMWF met data (R = 0.80). Additionally the impact of modifying the wet scavenging coefficients used in the parameterisation of wet deposition was investigated. The results showed that modifying the scavenging parameters had a similar impact to modifying the driving meteorology on the rank calculated from comparing the modelled and observed deposition

  18. Long-term variations and trends in the simulation of the middle atmosphere 1980–2004 by the chemistry-climate model of the Meteorological Research Institute

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Deushi

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available A middle-atmosphere simulation of the past 25 years (from 1980 to 2004 has been performed with a chemistry-climate model (CCM of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI under observed forcings of sea-surface temperature, greenhouse gases, halogens, volcanic aerosols, and solar irradiance variations. The dynamics module of MRI-CCM is a spectral global model truncated triangularly at a maximum wavenumber of 42 with 68 layers extending from the surface to 0.01 hPa (about 80 km, wherein the vertical spacing is 500 m from 100 to 10 hPa. The chemistry-transport module treats 51 species with 124 reactions including heterogeneous reactions. Transport of chemical species is based on a hybrid semi-Lagrangian scheme, which is a flux form in the vertical direction and an ordinary semi-Lagrangian form in the horizontal direction. The MRI-CCM used in this study reproduced a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO of about a 20-month period for wind and ozone in the equatorial stratosphere. Multiple linear regression analysis with time lags for volcanic aerosols was performed on the zonal-mean quantities of the simulated result to separate the trend, the QBO, the El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo, the 11-year solar cycle, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO signals. It is found that MRI-CCM can more or less realistically reproduce observed trends of annual mean temperature and ozone, and those of total ozone in each month. MRI-CCM also reproduced the vertical multi-cell structures of tropical temperature, zonal-wind, and ozone associated with the QBO, and the mid-latitude total ozone QBO in each winter hemisphere. Solar irradiance variations of the 11-year cycle were found to affect radiation alone (not photodissociation because of an error in making the photolysis lookup table. Nevertheless, though the heights of the maximum temperature (ozone in the tropics are much higher (lower than observations, MRI-CCM could reproduce the second maxima of temperature and

  19. Using climate derivatives for assessment of meteorological parameter relationships in RCM and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timuhins, Andrejs; Bethers, Uldis; Bethers, Peteris; Klints, Ilze; Sennikovs, Juris; Frishfelds, Vilnis

    2017-04-01

    In a changing climate it is essential to estimate its impacts on different economic fields. In our study we tried to create a framework for climate change assessment and climate change impact estimation for the territory of Latvia and to create results which are also understandable for non-scientists (stakeholder, media and public). This approach allowed us to more carefully assess the presentation and interpretation of results and their validation, for public viewing. For the presentation of our work a website was created (www.modlab.lv/klimats) containing two types of documents in a unified framework, meteorological parameter analysis of different easily interpretable derivative values. Both of these include analysis of the current situation as well as illustrate the projection for future time periods. Derivate values are calculated using two data sources: the bias corrected regional climate data and meteorological observation data. Derivative documents contain description of derived value, some interesting facts and conclusions. Additionally, all results may be viewed in temporal and spatial graphs and maps, for different time periods as well as different seasons. Bias correction (Sennikovs and Bethers, 2009) for the control period 1961-1990 is applied to RCM data series. Meteorological observation data of the Latvian Environment, Geology, and Meteorology Agency and ENSEMBLES project daily data of 13 RCM runs for the period 1960-2100 are used. All the documents are prepared in python notebooks, which allow for flexible changes. At the moment following derivative values have been published: forest fire risk index, wind energy, phenology (Degree days), road condition (friction, ice conditions), daily minimal meteorological visibility, headache occurrence rate, firs snow date and meteorological parameter analysis: temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, and cloudiness. While creating these products RCM ability to represent the actual climate was

  20. Sex differences in the effect of wheel running on subsequent nicotine-seeking in a rat adolescent-onset self-administration model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Victoria; Moore, Catherine F; Brunzell, Darlene H; Lynch, Wendy J

    2014-01-01

    Rationale Wheel running attenuates nicotine-seeking in male adolescent rats; however it is not known if this effect extends to females. Objective To determine if wheel running during abstinence would differentially attenuate subsequent nicotine-seeking in male and female rats that had extended access to nicotine self-administration during adolescence. Methods Male (N = 49) and female (N = 43) adolescent rats self-administered saline or nicotine (5μg/kg) under an extended access (23-hour) paradigm. Following the last self-administration session, rats were moved to polycarbonate cages for an abstinence period where they either had access to a locked or unlocked running wheel for 2-hours/day. Subsequently, nicotine-seeking was examined under a within-session extinction/cue-induced reinstatement paradigm. Due to low levels of nicotine-seeking in females in both wheel groups, additional groups were included that were housed without access to a running wheel during abstinence. Results Females self-administered more nicotine as compared to males; however, within males and females, intake did not differ between groups prior to wheel assignment. Compared to saline controls, males and females that self-administered nicotine showed a significant increase in drug-seeking during extinction. Wheel running during abstinence attenuated nicotine-seeking during extinction in males. In females, access to either locked or unlocked wheels attenuated nicotine-seeking during extinction. While responding was reinstated by cues in both males and females, levels were modest and not significantly affected by exercise in this adolescent-onset model. Conclusions While wheel running reduced subsequent nicotine-seeking in males, access to a wheel, either locked or unlocked, was sufficient to suppress nicotine-seeking in females. PMID:24271035

  1. Instruments for meteorological measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-08-01

    The Fundamental Safety Rules applicable to certain types of nuclear installation are intended to clarify the conditions of which observance, for the type of installation concerned and for the subject that they deal with, is considered as equivalent to compliance with regulatory French technical practice. These Rules should facilitate safety analysises and the clear understanding between persons interested in matters related to nuclear safety. They in no way reduce the operator's liability and pose no obstacle to statutory provisions in force. For any installation to which a Fundamental Safety Rule applies according to the foregoing paragraph, the operator may be relieved from application of the Rule if he shows proof that the safety objectives set by the Rule are attained by other means that he proposes within the framework of statutory procedures. Furthermore, the Central Service for the Safety of Nuclear Installations reserves the right at all times to alter any Fundamental Safety Rule, as required, should it deem this necessary, while specifying the applicability conditions. This present rule has for objective to determine the means for meteorological measurement near a site of nuclear facility in which there is not a PWR power plant [fr

  2. Effects of cognitive stimulation with a self-modeling video on time to exhaustion while running at maximal aerobic velocity: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagin, Vincent; Gonzales, Benoît R; Groslambert, Alain

    2015-04-01

    This study assessed whether video self-modeling improves running performance and influences the rate of perceived exertion and heart rate response. Twelve men (M age=26.8 yr., SD=6; M body mass index=22.1 kg.m(-2), SD=1) performed a time to exhaustion running test at 100 percent maximal aerobic velocity while focusing on a video self-modeling loop to synchronize their stride. Compared to the control condition, there was a significant increase of time to exhaustion. Perceived exertion was lower also, but there was no significant change in mean heart rate. In conclusion, the video self-modeling used as a pacer apparently increased endurance by decreasing perceived exertion without affecting the heart rate.

  3. A photosynthesis-based two-leaf canopy stomatal conductance model for meteorology and air quality modeling with WRF/CMAQ PX LSM

    Science.gov (United States)

    A coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model with single-layer sunlit and shaded leaf canopy scaling is implemented and evaluated in a diagnostic box model with the Pleim-Xiu land surface model (PX LSM) and ozone deposition model components taken directly from the meteorol...

  4. Impacts of Detailed Land-Use Types and Urban Heat in an Urban Canopy Model on Local Meteorology and Ozone Levels for Air Quality Modeling in a Coastal City, Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon-Hee Kang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available An urban canopy model (UCM, with detailed urban land-use and anthropogenic heat information, is required to reproduce and understand the urbanization process and its impact on regional climate and urban air quality. This study investigates the UCM impact on simulated meteorology and surface ozone in the coastal city of Busan using the WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ model coupled with (UCM case, and without the UCM (NOUCM case. The UCM and NOUCM case results suggest that UCM case generally produces warmer temperatures and deeper planetary boundary layer (PBL heights, especially in the early morning and night time, than the NOUCM case. Owing to urban heating and enhanced turbulent mixing incorporation in the center of the city, the sea breeze in the UCM case tends to penetrate faster and more strongly than in the NOUCM case. After sea breeze arrival at the urban center, the urban heat island effect prevents its penetration further inland. In the UCM case in the late afternoon, local meteorological changes induce remarkable increases in simulated O3 concentrations over the downwind (up to 17.1 ppb and downtown (up to 10.6 ppb areas. This is probably due to an increase in temperature in the urban areas and the wind convergence zone movement due to the sea breeze interaction and offshore flows. The increase in O3 concentration in the late afternoon results in the model bias reduction under previously underestimated O3 conditions due to high NOx emissions. The simulated O3 concentrations in the UCM case are more similar to the observed O3 concentrations compared to those of the NOUCM case.