WorldWideScience

Sample records for model runs meteorology

  1. Mathematical problems in meteorological modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Csomós, Petra; Faragó, István; Horányi, András; Szépszó, Gabriella

    2016-01-01

    This book deals with mathematical problems arising in the context of meteorological modelling. It gathers and presents some of the most interesting and important issues from the interaction of mathematics and meteorology. It is unique in that it features contributions on topics like data assimilation, ensemble prediction, numerical methods, and transport modelling, from both mathematical and meteorological perspectives. The derivation and solution of all kinds of numerical prediction models require the application of results from various mathematical fields. The present volume is divided into three parts, moving from mathematical and numerical problems through air quality modelling, to advanced applications in data assimilation and probabilistic forecasting. The book arose from the workshop “Mathematical Problems in Meteorological Modelling” held in Budapest in May 2014 and organized by the ECMI Special Interest Group on Numerical Weather Prediction. Its main objective is to highlight the beauty of the de...

  2. Meteorological Uncertainty of atmospheric Dispersion model results (MUD)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Amstrup, Bjarne; Feddersen, Henrik

    . However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent uncertainties......The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario...... of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological obser-vations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observa-tional data, an ensemble of meteorological forecasts is produced...

  3. Urban meteorological modelling for nuclear emergency preparedness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baklanov, Alexander; Sorensen, Jens Havskov; Hoe, Steen Cordt; Amstrup, Bjarne

    2006-01-01

    The main objectives of the current EU project 'Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure' (FUMAPEX) are the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, the connection of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to urban air pollution and population dose models, the building of improved urban air quality information and forecasting systems, and their application in cities in various European climates. In addition to the forecast of the worst air-pollution episodes in large cities, the potential use of improved weather forecasts for nuclear emergency management in urban areas, in case of hazardous releases from nuclear accidents or terror acts, is considered. Such use of NWP data is tested for the Copenhagen metropolitan area and the Oresund region. The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) is running an experimental version of the HIRLAM NWP model over Zealand including the Copenhagen metropolitan area with a horizontal resolution of 1.4 km, thus approaching the city-scale. This involves 1-km resolution physiographic data with implications for the urban surface parameters, e.g. surface fluxes, roughness length and albedo. For the city of Copenhagen, the enhanced high-resolution NWP forecasting will be provided to demonstrate the improved dispersion forecasting capabilities of the Danish nuclear emergency preparedness decision-support system, the Accident Reporting and Guidance Operational System (ARGOS), used by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA). Recently, ARGOS has been extended with a capability of real-time calculation of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material from accidental releases. This is effectuated through on-line interfacing with the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is run at DMI. For local-scale modelling of atmospheric dispersion, ARGOS utilises the Local-Scale Model Chain (LSMC), which makes use of high-resolution DMI

  4. Urban meteorological modelling for nuclear emergency preparedness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, Alexander; Sørensen, Jens Havskov; Hoe, Steen Cordt; Amstrup, Bjarne

    2006-01-01

    The main objectives of the current EU project "Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure" (FUMAPEX) are the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, the connection of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to urban air pollution and population dose models, the building of improved urban air quality information and forecasting systems, and their application in cities in various European climates. In addition to the forecast of the worst air-pollution episodes in large cities, the potential use of improved weather forecasts for nuclear emergency management in urban areas, in case of hazardous releases from nuclear accidents or terror acts, is considered. Such use of NWP data is tested for the Copenhagen metropolitan area and the Øresund region. The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) is running an experimental version of the HIRLAM NWP model over Zealand including the Copenhagen metropolitan area with a horizontal resolution of 1.4km, thus approaching the city-scale. This involves 1-km resolution physiographic data with implications for the urban surface parameters, e.g. surface fluxes, roughness length and albedo. For the city of Copenhagen, the enhanced high-resolution NWP forecasting will be provided to demonstrate the improved dispersion forecasting capabilities of the Danish nuclear emergency preparedness decision-support system, the Accident Reporting and Guidance Operational System (ARGOS), used by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA). Recently, ARGOS has been extended with a capability of real-time calculation of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material from accidental releases. This is effectuated through on-line interfacing with the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is run at DMI. For local-scale modelling of atmospheric dispersion, ARGOS utilises the Local-Scale Model Chain (LSMC), which makes use of high-resolution DMI

  5. Meteorological Uncertainty of atmospheric Dispersion model results (MUD)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Amstrup, Bjarne; Feddersen, Henrik

    ’ dispersion scenario. However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for long-range atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent......The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the ‘most likely...... uncertainties of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological observations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing e.g. the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observational data, an ensemble...

  6. METEOROLOGICAL MODELLING INFLUENCE ON REGIONAL AND URBAN AIR POLLUTION PREDICTABILITY

    OpenAIRE

    Bande, Stefano; D'Allura, Alessio; Finardi, Sandro; Giorcelli, Matteo; Muraro, Massimo

    2008-01-01

    Abstract: ARPA Piemonte performs yearly air quality assessment running a modelling system based on a chemical transport model. The model is capable to simulate air pollutant emission, transport, diffusion and chemical transformation, to provide concentration fields of the main atmospheric pollutants (CO, NOX, SO2, PM10, PM2.5, O3, and benzene) on a hourly basis and to compute all the indicators required by EU legislation. Meteorological fields to drive air quality simulations are rec...

  7. Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool for meteorological and air quality simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Atmospheric Model Evaluation Tool compares model predictions to observed data from various meteorological and air quality observation networks to help evaluate meteorological and air quality simulations.

  8. Meteorological uncertainty of atmospheric dispersion model results (MUD)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Havskov Soerensen, J.; Amstrup, B.; Feddersen, H.

    2013-08-01

    The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario. However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for long-range atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent uncertainties of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological observations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing e.g. the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observational data, an ensemble of meteorological forecasts is produced from which uncertainties in the various meteorological parameters are estimated, e.g. probabilities for rain. Corresponding ensembles of atmospheric dispersion can now be computed from which uncertainties of predicted radionuclide concentration and deposition patterns can be derived. (Author)

  9. Impact of inherent meteorology uncertainty on air quality model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilliam, Robert C.; Hogrefe, Christian; Godowitch, James M.; Napelenok, Sergey; Mathur, Rohit; Rao, S. Trivikrama

    2015-12-01

    It is well established that there are a number of different classifications and sources of uncertainties in environmental modeling systems. Air quality models rely on two key inputs, namely, meteorology and emissions. When using air quality models for decision making, it is important to understand how uncertainties in these inputs affect the simulated concentrations. Ensembles are one method to explore how uncertainty in meteorology affects air pollution concentrations. Most studies explore this uncertainty by running different meteorological models or the same model with different physics options and in some cases combinations of different meteorological and air quality models. While these have been shown to be useful techniques in some cases, we present a technique that leverages the initial condition perturbations of a weather forecast ensemble, namely, the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system to drive the four-dimensional data assimilation in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with a key focus being the response of ozone chemistry and transport. Results confirm that a sizable spread in WRF solutions, including common weather variables of temperature, wind, boundary layer depth, clouds, and radiation, can cause a relatively large range of ozone-mixing ratios. Pollutant transport can be altered by hundreds of kilometers over several days. Ozone-mixing ratios of the ensemble can vary as much as 10-20 ppb or 20-30% in areas that typically have higher pollution levels.

  10. A meteorological distribution system for high-resolution terrestrial modeling (MicroMet)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glen E. Liston; Kelly Elder

    2006-01-01

    An intermediate-complexity, quasi-physically based, meteorological model (MicroMet) has been developed to produce high-resolution (e.g., 30-m to 1-km horizontal grid increment) atmospheric forcings required to run spatially distributed terrestrial models over a wide variety of landscapes. The following eight variables, required to run most terrestrial models, are...

  11. Sparse canopy parameterizations for meteorological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hurk, van den B.J.J.M.

    1996-01-01

    Meteorological models for numerical weather prediction or climate simulation require a description of land surface exchange processes. The degree of complexity of these land-surface parameterization schemes - or SVAT's - that is necessary for accurate model predictions, is yet unclear. Also, the

  12. A Meteorological Distribution System for High Resolution Terrestrial Modeling (MicroMet)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liston, G. E.; Elder, K.

    2004-12-01

    Spatially distributed terrestrial models generally require atmospheric forcing data on horizontal grids that are of higher resolution than available meteorological data. Furthermore, the meteorological data collected may not necessarily represent the area of interest's meteorological variability. To address these deficiencies, computationally efficient and physically realistic methods must be developed to take available meteorological data sets (e.g., meteorological tower observations) and generate high-resolution atmospheric-forcing distributions. This poster describes MicroMet, a quasi-physically-based, but simple meteorological distribution model designed to produce high-resolution (e.g., 5-m to 1-km horizontal grid increments) meteorological data distributions required to run spatially distributed terrestrial models over a wide variety of landscapes. The model produces distributions of the seven fundamental atmospheric forcing variables required to run most terrestrial models: air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, incoming solar radiation, incoming longwave radiation, and precipitation. MicroMet includes a preprocessor that analyzes meteorological station data and identifies and repairs potential data deficiencies. The model uses known relationships between meteorological variables and the surrounding area (primarily topography) to distribute those variables over any given landscape. MicroMet performs two kinds of adjustments to available meteorological data: 1) when there are data at more than one location, at a given time, the data are spatially interpolated over the domain using a Barnes objective analysis scheme, and 2) physical sub-models are applied to each MicroMet variable to improve its realism at a given point in space and time with respect to the terrain. The three, 25-km by 25-km, Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) mesoscale study areas (MSAs: Fraser, North Park, and Rabbit Ears) will be used as example Micro

  13. Investigating the Propagation of Meteorological Model Uncertainty for Tracer Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez-Coto, I.; Ghosh, S.; Karion, A.; Martin, C.; Mueller, K. L.; Prasad, K.; Whetstone, J. R.

    2016-12-01

    The North-East Corridor project aims to use a top-down inversion method to quantify sources of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in the urban areas of Washington DC and Baltimore at approximately 1km2 resolutions. The aim of this project is to help establish reliable measurement methods for quantifying and validating GHG emissions independently of the inventory methods typically used to guide mitigation efforts. Since inversion methods depend strongly on atmospheric transport modeling, analyzing the uncertainties on the meteorological fields and their propagation through the sensitivities of observations to surface fluxes (footprints) is a fundamental step. To this end, six configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) version 3.8 were used to generate an ensemble of meteorological simulations. Specifically, we used 4 planetary boundary layer parameterizations (YSU, MYNN2, BOULAC, QNSE), 2 sources of initial and boundary conditions (NARR and HRRR) and 1 configuration including the building energy parameterization (BEP) urban canopy model. The simulations were compared with more than 150 meteorological surface stations, a wind profiler and radiosondes for a month (February) in 2016 to account for the uncertainties and the ensemble spread for wind speed, direction and mixing height. In addition, we used the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model (STILT) to derive the sensitivity of 12 hypothetical observations to surface emissions (footprints) with each WRF configuration. The footprints and integrated sensitivities were compared and the resulting uncertainties estimated.

  14. Numerical Modelling of Wave Run-Up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramirez, Jorge Robert Rodriguez; Frigaard, Peter; Andersen, Thomas Lykke

    2011-01-01

    Wave loads are important in problems related to offshore structure, such as wave run-up, slamming. The computation of such wave problems are carried out by CFD models. This paper presents one model, NS3, which solve 3D Navier-Stokes equations and use Volume of Fluid (VOF) method to treat the free...

  15. Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreher, Joseph G.

    2009-01-01

    For expedience in delivering dispersion guidance in the diversity of operational situations, National Weather Service Melbourne (MLB) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are becoming increasingly reliant on the PC-based version of the HYSPLIT model run through a graphical user interface (GUI). While the GUI offers unique advantages when compared to traditional methods, it is difficult for forecasters to run and manage in an operational environment. To alleviate the difficulty in providing scheduled real-time trajectory and concentration guidance, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) configured a Linux version of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) (HYSPLIT) model that ingests the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) guidance, such as the North American Mesoscale (NAM) and the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) models. The AMU configured the HYSPLIT system to automatically download the NCEP model products, convert the meteorological grids into HYSPLIT binary format, run the model from several pre-selected latitude/longitude sites, and post-process the data to create output graphics. In addition, the AMU configured several software programs to convert local Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model output into HYSPLIT format.

  16. Running-mass inflation model and WMAP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Covi, Laura; Lyth, David H.; Melchiorri, Alessandro; Odman, Carolina J.

    2004-01-01

    We consider the observational constraints on the running-mass inflationary model, and, in particular, on the scale dependence of the spectral index, from the new cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy measurements performed by WMAP and from new clustering data from the SLOAN survey. We find that the data strongly constraints a significant positive scale dependence of n, and we translate the analysis into bounds on the physical parameters of the inflaton potential. Looking deeper into specific types of interaction (gauge and Yukawa) we find that the parameter space is significantly constrained by the new data, but that the running-mass model remains viable

  17. Meteorological fluid dynamics asymptotic modelling, stability and chaotic atmospheric motion

    CERN Document Server

    Zeytounian, Radyadour K

    1991-01-01

    The author considers meteorology as a part of fluid dynamics. He tries to derive the properties of atmospheric flows from a rational analysis of the Navier-Stokes equations, at the same time analyzing various types of initial and boundary problems. This approach to simulate nature by models from fluid dynamics will be of interest to both scientists and students of physics and theoretical meteorology.

  18. Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartholmes

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of analysing the coupling of meteorological meso-scale quantitative precipitation forecasts with distributed rainfall-runoff models to extend the forecasting horizon. Traditionally, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff models have been used for real time flood forecasting. More recently, increased computer capabilities allow the utilisation of distributed hydrological models with mesh sizes from tenths of metres to a few kilometres. On the other hand, meteorological models, providing the quantitative precipitation forecast, tend to produce average values on meshes ranging from slightly less than 10 to 200 kilometres. Therefore, to improve the quality of flood forecasts, the effects of coupling the meteorological and the hydrological models at different scales were analysed. A distributed hydrological model (TOPKAPI was developed and calibrated using a 1x1 km mesh for the case of the river Po closed at Ponte Spessa (catchment area c. 37000 km2. The model was then coupled with several other European meteorological models ranging from the Limited Area Models (provided by DMI and DWD with resolutions from 0.0625° * 0.0625°, to the ECMWF ensemble predictions with a resolution of 1.85° * 1.85°. Interesting results, describing the coupled model behaviour, are available for a meteorological extreme event in Northern Italy (Nov. 1994. The results demonstrate the poor reliability of the quantitative precipitation forecasts produced by meteorological models presently available; this is not resolved using the Ensemble Forecasting technique, when compared with results obtainable with measured rainfall.

  19. Stochastic models for some meteorological outcomes in Niger Delta ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, stochastic models based on autoregressive integrated moving average models of various orders and its seasonalized versions are presented, with a view to identifying the optimal model for some meteorological outcomes in some cities in Niger Delta region of Nigeria, using Normalized Bayesian Information ...

  20. Running vacuum cosmological models: linear scalar perturbations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perico, E.L.D. [Instituto de Física, Universidade de São Paulo, Rua do Matão 1371, CEP 05508-090, São Paulo, SP (Brazil); Tamayo, D.A., E-mail: elduartep@usp.br, E-mail: tamayo@if.usp.br [Departamento de Astronomia, Universidade de São Paulo, Rua do Matão 1226, CEP 05508-900, São Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2017-08-01

    In cosmology, phenomenologically motivated expressions for running vacuum are commonly parameterized as linear functions typically denoted by Λ( H {sup 2}) or Λ( R ). Such models assume an equation of state for the vacuum given by P-bar {sub Λ} = - ρ-bar {sub Λ}, relating its background pressure P-bar {sub Λ} with its mean energy density ρ-bar {sub Λ} ≡ Λ/8π G . This equation of state suggests that the vacuum dynamics is due to an interaction with the matter content of the universe. Most of the approaches studying the observational impact of these models only consider the interaction between the vacuum and the transient dominant matter component of the universe. We extend such models by assuming that the running vacuum is the sum of independent contributions, namely ρ-bar {sub Λ} = Σ {sub i} ρ-bar {sub Λ} {sub i} . Each Λ i vacuum component is associated and interacting with one of the i matter components in both the background and perturbation levels. We derive the evolution equations for the linear scalar vacuum and matter perturbations in those two scenarios, and identify the running vacuum imprints on the cosmic microwave background anisotropies as well as on the matter power spectrum. In the Λ( H {sup 2}) scenario the vacuum is coupled with every matter component, whereas the Λ( R ) description only leads to a coupling between vacuum and non-relativistic matter, producing different effects on the matter power spectrum.

  1. Sensitivity of hydrological modeling to meteorological data and implications for climate change studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, L.G.; Roy, R.; Desrochers, G.E.; Vaillancourt, C.; Chartier, I.

    2008-01-01

    There are uncertainties associated with the use of hydrological models. This study aims to analyse one source of uncertainty associated with hydrological modeling, particularly in the context of climate change studies on water resources. Additional intent of this study is to compare the ability of some meteorological data sources, used in conjunction with an hydrological model, to reproduce the hydrologic regime of a watershed. A case study on a watershed of south-western Quebec, Canada using five different sources of meteorological data as input to an offline hydrological model are presented in this paper. Data used came from weather stations, NCEP reanalysis, ERA40 reanalysis and two Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) runs driven by NCEP and ERA40 reanalysis, providing atmospheric driving boundary conditions to this limited-area climate model. To investigate the sensitivity of simulated streamflow to different sources of meteorological data, we first calibrated the hydrological model with each of the meteorological data sets over the 1961-1980 period. The five different sets of parameters of the hydrological model were then used to simulate streamflow of the 1981-2000 validation period with the five meteorological data sets as inputs. The 25 simulated streamflow series have been compared to the observed streamflow of the watershed. The five meteorological data sets do not have the same ability, when used with the hydrological model, to reproduce streamflow. Our results show also that the hydrological model parameters used may have an important influence on results such as water balance, but it is linked with the differences that may have in the characteristics of the meteorological data used. For climate change impacts assessments on water resources, we have found that there is an uncertainty associated with the meteorological data used to calibrate the model. For expected changes on mean annual flows of the Chateauguay River, our results vary from a small

  2. Intercomparison of mesoscale meteorological models for precipitation forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Richard

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of the RAPHAEL EU project, a series of past heavy precipitation events has been simulated with different meteorological models. Rainfall hindcasts and forecasts have been produced by four models in use at various meteorological services or research centres of Italy, Canada, France and Switzerland. The paper is focused on the comparison of the computed precipitation fields with the available surface observations. The comparison is carried out for three meteorological situations which lead to severe flashflood over the Toce-Ticino catchment in Italy (6599 km2 or the Ammer catchment (709 km2 in Germany. The results show that all four models reproduced the occurrence of these heavy precipitation events. The accuracy of the computed precipitation appears to be more case-dependent than model-dependent. The sensitivity of the computed rainfall to the boundary conditions (hindcast v. forecast was found to be rather weak, indicating that a flood forecasting system based upon a numerical meteo-hydrological simulation could be feasible in an operational context. Keywords: meteorological models, precipitation forecast

  3. Modeling of atmospheric disturbances in meteorological pictures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouthemy, P; Benveniste, A

    1984-05-01

    This paper describes a model-based approach to perform tracking of extratropical atmospheric disturbances from a sequence of satellite cloud-cover images. More precisely, it deals with the estimation of motion of these spiral-shaped cloud systems (both translational and rotational motion), and the measurement of the evolution of their shape. Tracking is achieved by recording from one image to the next the changes of the model parameter values. A maximum likelihood criterion is used in the process of fitting model to sensed data. The defined model takes into account geometric and intensity aspects. Such an approach readily yields global information on the disturbance cloud system of interest. As a requirement in such an application is robustness to noise, to this end two versions of the modeling have been considered.

  4. A numerical forecast model for road meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Chunlei

    2017-05-01

    A fine-scale numerical model for road surface parameters prediction (BJ-ROME) is developed based on the Common Land Model. The model is validated using in situ observation data measured by the ROSA road weather stations of Vaisala Company, Finland. BJ-ROME not only takes into account road surface factors, such as imperviousness, relatively low albedo, high heat capacity, and high heat conductivity, but also considers the influence of urban anthropogenic heat, impervious surface evaporation, and urban land-use/land-cover changes. The forecast time span and the update interval of BJ-ROME in vocational operation are 24 and 3 h, respectively. The validation results indicate that BJ-ROME can successfully simulate the diurnal variation of road surface temperature both under clear-sky and rainfall conditions. BJ-ROME can simulate road water and snow depth well if the artificial removing was considered. Road surface energy balance in rainy days is quite different from that in clear-sky conditions. Road evaporation could not be neglected in road surface water cycle research. The results of sensitivity analysis show solar radiation correction coefficient, asphalt depth, and asphalt heat conductivity are important parameters in road interface temperatures simulation. The prediction results could be used as a reference of maintenance decision support system to mitigate the traffic jam and urban water logging especially in large cities.

  5. Thermodynamical aspects of running vacuum models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, J.A.S. [Universidade de Sao Paulo, Departamento de Astronomia, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Basilakos, Spyros [Academy of Athens, Research Center for Astronomy and Applied Mathematics, Athens (Greece); Sola, Joan [Univ. de Barcelona, High Energy Physics Group, Dept. d' Estructura i Constituents de la Materia, Institut de Ciencies del Cosmos (ICC), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain)

    2016-04-15

    The thermal history of a large class of running vacuum models in which the effective cosmological term is described by a truncated power series of the Hubble rate, whose dominant term is Λ(H) ∝ H{sup n+2}, is discussed in detail. Specifically, by assuming that the ultrarelativistic particles produced by the vacuum decay emerge into space-time in such a way that its energy density ρ{sub r} ∝ T{sup 4}, the temperature evolution law and the increasing entropy function are analytically calculated. For the whole class of vacuum models explored here we find that the primeval value of the comoving radiation entropy density (associated to effectively massless particles) starts from zero and evolves extremely fast until reaching a maximum near the end of the vacuum decay phase, where it saturates. The late-time conservation of the radiation entropy during the adiabatic FRW phase also guarantees that the whole class of running vacuum models predicts the same correct value of the present day entropy, S{sub 0} ∝ 10{sup 87}-10{sup 88} (in natural units), independently of the initial conditions. In addition, by assuming Gibbons¨CHawking temperature as an initial condition, we find that the ratio between the late-time and primordial vacuum energy densities is in agreement with naive estimates from quantum field theory, namely, ρ{sub Λ0}/ρ{sub ΛI} 10{sup -123}. Such results are independent on the power n and suggests that the observed Universe may evolve smoothly between two extreme, unstable, non-singular de Sitter phases. (orig.)

  6. Model for radionuclide transport in running waters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jonsson, Karin; Elert, Mark [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2005-11-15

    Two sites in Sweden are currently under investigation by SKB for their suitability as places for deep repository of radioactive waste, the Forsmark and Simpevarp/Laxemar area. As a part of the safety assessment, SKB has formulated a biosphere model with different sub-models for different parts of the ecosystem in order to be able to predict the dose to humans following a possible radionuclide discharge from a future deep repository. In this report, a new model concept describing radionuclide transport in streams is presented. The main difference from the previous model for running water used by SKB, where only dilution of the inflow of radionuclides was considered, is that the new model includes parameterizations also of the exchange processes present along the stream. This is done in order to be able to investigate the effect of the retention on the transport and to be able to estimate the resulting concentrations in the different parts of the system. The concentrations determined with this new model could later be used for order of magnitude predictions of the dose to humans. The presented model concept is divided in two parts, one hydraulic and one radionuclide transport model. The hydraulic model is used to determine the flow conditions in the stream channel and is based on the assumption of uniform flow and quasi-stationary conditions. The results from the hydraulic model are used in the radionuclide transport model where the concentration is determined in the different parts of the stream ecosystem. The exchange processes considered are exchange with the sediments due to diffusion, advective transport and sedimentation/resuspension and uptake of radionuclides in biota. Transport of both dissolved radionuclides and sorbed onto particulates is considered. Sorption kinetics in the stream water phase is implemented as the time scale of the residence time in the stream water probably is short in comparison to the time scale of the kinetic sorption. In the sediment

  7. Air quality modeling: evaluation of chemical and meteorological parameterizations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Youngseob

    2011-01-01

    The influence of chemical mechanisms and meteorological parameterizations on pollutant concentrations calculated with an air quality model is studied. The influence of the differences between two gas-phase chemical mechanisms on the formation of ozone and aerosols in Europe is low on average. For ozone, the large local differences are mainly due to the uncertainty associated with the kinetics of nitrogen monoxide (NO) oxidation reactions on the one hand and the representation of different pathways for the oxidation of aromatic compounds on the other hand. The aerosol concentrations are mainly influenced by the selection of all major precursors of secondary aerosols and the explicit treatment of chemical regimes corresponding to the nitrogen oxides (NO x ) levels. The influence of the meteorological parameterizations on the concentrations of aerosols and their vertical distribution is evaluated over the Paris region in France by comparison to lidar data. The influence of the parameterization of the dynamics in the atmospheric boundary layer is important; however, it is the use of an urban canopy model that improves significantly the modeling of the pollutant vertical distribution (author) [fr

  8. Modeling the wet bulb globe temperature using standard meteorological measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liljegren, James C; Carhart, Richard A; Lawday, Philip; Tschopp, Stephen; Sharp, Robert

    2008-10-01

    The U.S. Army has a need for continuous, accurate estimates of the wet bulb globe temperature to protect soldiers and civilian workers from heat-related injuries, including those involved in the storage and destruction of aging chemical munitions at depots across the United States. At these depots, workers must don protective clothing that increases their risk of heat-related injury. Because of the difficulty in making continuous, accurate measurements of wet bulb globe temperature outdoors, the authors have developed a model of the wet bulb globe temperature that relies only on standard meteorological data available at each storage depot for input. The model is composed of separate submodels of the natural wet bulb and globe temperatures that are based on fundamental principles of heat and mass transfer, has no site-dependent parameters, and achieves an accuracy of better than 1 degree C based on comparisons with wet bulb globe temperature measurements at all depots.

  9. Sensitivity of modeled estuarine circulation to spatial and temporal resolution of input meteorological forcing of a cold frontal passage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, Robert J.; Taeb, Peyman; Lazarus, Steven; Splitt, Michael; Holman, Bryan P.; Colvin, Jeffrey

    2016-12-01

    In this study, a four member ensemble of meteorological forcing is generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in order to simulate a frontal passage event that impacted the Indian River Lagoon (IRL) during March 2015. The WRF model is run to provide high and low, spatial (0.005° and 0.1°) and temporal (30 min and 6 h) input wind and pressure fields. The four member ensemble is used to force the Advanced Circulation model (ADCIRC) coupled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) and compute the hydrodynamic and wave response. Results indicate that increasing the spatial resolution of the meteorological forcing has a greater impact on the results than increasing the temporal resolution in coastal systems like the IRL where the length scales are smaller than the resolution of the operational meteorological model being used to generate the forecast. Changes in predicted water elevations are due in part to the upwind and downwind behavior of the input wind forcing. The significant wave height is more sensitive to the meteorological forcing, exhibited by greater ensemble spread throughout the simulation. It is important that the land mask, seen by the meteorological model, is representative of the geography of the coastal estuary as resolved by the hydrodynamic model. As long as the temporal resolution of the wind field captures the bulk characteristics of the frontal passage, computational resources should be focused so as to ensure that the meteorological model resolves the spatial complexities, such as the land-water interface, that drive the land use responsible for dynamic downscaling of the winds.

  10. Long-run properties of some Danish macroeconometric models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harck, Søren H.

    This paper provides an analytical treatment of various long-run aspects of the MONA model as well as the SMEC model of the Danish economy. More specifically, the analysis lays bare the long-run and steady-state nexus between unemployment and, respectively, inflation and the wage share implied by ...

  11. Modelling surface run-off and trends analysis over India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    responsible for run-off generation plays a major role in run-off modelling at region scales. Remote sensing, GIS and advancement of the computer technology based evaluation of land surface prop- erties at spatial and temporal scales are very useful input data for hydrological models. Using remote sensing data is not only ...

  12. Evaluation of an atmospheric model with surface and ABL meteorological data for energy applications in structured areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triantafyllou, A. G.; Kalogiros, J.; Krestou, A.; Leivaditou, E.; Zoumakis, N.; Bouris, D.; Garas, S.; Konstantinidis, E.; Wang, Q.

    2018-03-01

    This paper provides the performance evaluation of the meteorological component of The Air Pollution Model (TAPM), a nestable prognostic model, in predicting meteorological variables in urban areas, for both its surface layer and atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) turbulence parameterizations. The model was modified by incorporating four urban land surface types, replacing the existing single urban surface. Control runs were carried out over the wider area of Kozani, an urban area in NW Greece. The model was evaluated for both surface and ABL meteorological variables by using measurements of near-surface and vertical profiles of wind and temperature. The data were collected by using monitoring surface stations in selected sites as well as an acoustic sounder (SOnic Detection And Ranging (SODAR), up to 300 m above ground) and a radiometer profiler (up to 600 m above ground). The results showed the model demonstrated good performance in predicting the near-surface meteorology in the Kozani region for both a winter and a summer month. In the ABL, the comparison showed that the model's forecasts generally performed well with respect to the thermal structure (temperature profiles and ABL height) but overestimated wind speed at the heights of comparison (mostly below 200 m) up to 3-4 ms-1.

  13. Forecasting rain events - Meteorological models or collective intelligence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arazy, Ofer; Halfon, Noam; Malkinson, Dan

    2015-04-01

    Collective intelligence is shared (or group) intelligence that emerges from the collective efforts of many individuals. Collective intelligence is the aggregate of individual contributions: from simple collective decision making to more sophisticated aggregations such as in crowdsourcing and peer-production systems. In particular, collective intelligence could be used in making predictions about future events, for example by using prediction markets to forecast election results, stock prices, or the outcomes of sport events. To date, there is little research regarding the use of collective intelligence for prediction of weather forecasting. The objective of this study is to investigate the extent to which collective intelligence could be utilized to accurately predict weather events, and in particular rainfall. Our analyses employ metrics of group intelligence, as well as compare the accuracy of groups' predictions against the predictions of the standard model used by the National Meteorological Services. We report on preliminary results from a study conducted over the 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 winters. We have built a web site that allows people to make predictions on precipitation levels on certain locations. During each competition participants were allowed to enter their precipitation forecasts (i.e. 'bets') at three locations and these locations changed between competitions. A precipitation competition was defined as a 48-96 hour period (depending on the expected weather conditions), bets were open 24-48 hours prior to the competition, and during betting period participants were allowed to change their bets with no limitation. In order to explore the effect of transparency, betting mechanisms varied across study's sites: full transparency (participants able to see each other's bets); partial transparency (participants see the group's average bet); and no transparency (no information of others' bets is made available). Several interesting findings emerged from

  14. Separation of run-off components of a glacierized catchment in Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia, by tracer methods (mainly δ2H, δ18O) and meteorological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weise, Stephan M.; Unger-Shayesteh, Katy; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Kalashnikova, Olga; Ershova, Natalya

    2017-04-01

    Since 2014 the glacierized Ala Archa catchment (ca. 230 km2) in the Kyrgyz Alatau mountains south of Bishkek is investigated for run-off contributions of precipitation, groundwater, snow-melt, and glacier melt by tracer methods (δ2H, δ18O, electrical conductivity) and hydro-meteorological data (run-off, precipitation, air temperature, albedo). The investigation period is characterized by a high inter-annual variability in precipitation amount and summer run-off. The isotopic composition of run-off water is found to be governed more by the interplay of air temperature, precipitation history, and snow coverage than by its origin from direct precipitation, snow- or glacial melt. The isotopic composition of base flow in winter and early spring time is found to vary probably not due to a reservoir (mixing) but due to a phase exchange process (fractionation). In the light of these results a separation of all run-off components in such an environment simply with isotope methods appears to be unrealistic.

  15. Meteorological implementation issues in chemistry and transport models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. E. Strahan

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Offline chemistry and transport models (CTMs are versatile tools for studying composition and climate issues requiring multi-decadal simulations. They are computationally fast compared to coupled chemistry climate models, making them well-suited for integrating sensitivity experiments necessary for understanding model performance and interpreting results. The archived meteorological fields used by CTMs can be implemented with lower horizontal or vertical resolution than the original meteorological fields in order to shorten integration time, but the effects of these shortcuts on transport processes must be understood if the CTM is to have credibility. In this paper we present a series of sensitivity experiments on a CTM using the Lin and Rood advection scheme, each differing from another by a single feature of the wind field implementation. Transport effects arising from changes in resolution and model lid height are evaluated using process-oriented diagnostics that intercompare CH4, O3, and age tracer carried in the simulations. Some of the diagnostics used are derived from observations and are shown as a reality check for the model. Processes evaluated include tropical ascent, tropical-midlatitude exchange, poleward circulation in the upper stratosphere, and the development of the Antarctic vortex. We find that faithful representation of stratospheric transport in this CTM is possible with a full mesosphere, ~1 km resolution in the lower stratosphere, and relatively low vertical resolution (>4 km spacing in the middle stratosphere and above, but lowering the lid from the upper to lower mesosphere leads to less realistic constituent distributions in the upper stratosphere. Ultimately, this affects the polar lower stratosphere, but the effects are greater for the Antarctic than the Arctic. The fidelity of lower stratospheric transport requires realistic tropical and high latitude mixing barriers which are produced at 2°×2.5°, but not lower

  16. A NEW COMBINED LOCAL AND NON-LOCAL PBL MODEL FOR METEOROLOGY AND AIR QUALITY MODELING

    Science.gov (United States)

    A new version of the Asymmetric Convective Model (ACM) has been developed to describe sub-grid vertical turbulent transport in both meteorology models and air quality models. The new version (ACM2) combines the non-local convective mixing of the original ACM with local eddy diff...

  17. Computing Models of CDF and D0 in Run II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lammel, S.

    1997-05-01

    The next collider run of the Fermilab Tevatron, Run II, is scheduled for autumn of 1999. Both experiments, the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF) and the D0 experiment are being modified to cope with the higher luminosity and shorter bunchspacing of the Tevatron. New detector components, higher event complexity, and an increased data volume require changes from the data acquisition systems up to the analysis systems. In this paper we present a summary of the computing models of the two experiments for Run II

  18. Running of the Scalar Spectral Index from Inflationary Models

    CERN Document Server

    Chung, D J H; Trodden, M; Chung, Daniel J.H.; Shiu, Gary; Trodden, Mark

    2003-01-01

    The scalar spectral index n is an important parameter describing the nature of primordial density perturbations. Recent data, including that from the WMAP satellite, shows some evidence that the index runs (changes as a function of the scale k at which it is measured) from n>1 (blue) on long scales to n<1 (red) on short scales. We investigate the extent to which inflationary models can accomodate such significant running of n. We present several methods for constructing large classes of potentials which yield a running spectral index. We show that within the slow-roll approximation, the fact that n-1 changes sign from blue to red forces the slope of the potential to reach a minimum at a similar field location. We also briefly survey the running of the index in a wider class of inflationary models, including a subset of those with non-minimial kinetic terms.

  19. Numerical Modelling of Wave Run-Up: Regular Waves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramirez, Jorge; Frigaard, Peter; Andersen, Thomas Lykke

    2011-01-01

    Wave loads are important in problems related to offshore structure, such as wave run-up, slamming. The computation of such wave problems are carried out by CFD models. This paper presents one model, NS3, which solve 3D Navier-Stokes equations and use Volume of Fluid (VOF) method to treat the free...

  20. Long-Run Properties of Large-Scale Macroeconometric Models

    OpenAIRE

    Kenneth F. WALLIS-; John D. WHITLEY

    1987-01-01

    We consider alternative approaches to the evaluation of the long-run properties of dynamic nonlinear macroeconometric models, namely dynamic simulation over an extended database, or the construction and direct solution of the steady-state version of the model. An application to a small model of the UK economy is presented. The model is found to be unstable, but a stable form can be produced by simple alterations to the structure.

  1. Short Trail Running Race: Beyond the Classic Model for Endurance Running Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehrström, Sabine; Tartaruga, Marcus P; Easthope, Christopher S; Brisswalter, Jeanick; Morin, Jean-Benoit; Vercruyssen, Fabrice

    2018-03-01

    This study aimed to examine the extent to which the classical physiological variables of endurance running performance (maximal oxygen uptake (V˙O2max), %V˙O2max at ventilatory threshold (VT), and running economy (RE)) but also muscle strength factors contribute to short trail running (TR) performance. A homogeneous group of nine highly trained trail runners performed an official TR race (27 km) and laboratory-based sessions to determine V˙O2max, %V˙O2max at VT, level RE (RE0%) and RE on a +10% slope, maximal voluntary concentric and eccentric knee extension torques, local endurance assessed by a fatigue index (FI), and a time to exhaustion at 87.5% of the velocity associated with V˙O2max. A simple regression method and commonality analysis identifying unique and common coefficients of each independent variable were used to determine the best predictors for the TR race time (dependent variable). Pearson correlations showed that FI and V˙O2max had the highest correlations (r = 0.91 and r = -0.76, respectively) with TR performance. The other selected variables were not significantly correlated with TR performance. The analysis of unique and common coefficients of relative V˙O2max, %V˙O2max at VT, and RE0% provides a low prediction of TR performance (R = 0.48). However, adding FI and RE on a +10% slope (instead of RE0%) markedly improved the predictive power of the model (R = 0.98). FI and V˙O2max showed the highest unique (49.8% and 20.4% of total effect, respectively) and common (26.9% of total effect) contributions to the regression equation. The classic endurance running model does not allow for meaningful prediction of short TR performance. Incorporating more specific factors into TR such as local endurance and gradient-specific RE testing procedures should be considered to better characterize short TR performance.

  2. Using Remote Sensing and Radar Meteorological Data to Support Watershed Assessments Comprising Integrated Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meteorological (MET) data required by watershed assessments comprising Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) traditionally have been provided by land-based weather (gauge) stations, although these data may not be the most appropriate for adequate spatial and temporal resolution...

  3. Optimizing Time Intervals of Meteorological Data Used with Atmospheric Dose Modeling at SRS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simpkins, A.A.

    1999-01-01

    Measured tritium oxide concentrations in air have been compared with calculated values using routine release Gaussian plume models for different time intervals of meteorological data. These comparisons determined an optimum time interval of meteorological data used with atmospheric dose models at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Meteorological data of varying time intervals (1-yr to 10-yr) were used for the comparison. Insignificant differences are seen in using a one-year database as opposed to a five-year database. Use of a ten-year database results in slightly more conservative results. For meteorological databases of length one to five years the mean ratio of predicted to measured tritium oxide concentrations is approximately 1.25 whereas for the ten-year meteorological database the ration is closer to 1.35. Currently at the Savannah River Site a meteorological database of five years duration is used for all dose models. This study suggests no substantially improved accuracy using meteorological files of shorter or longer time intervals

  4. Arbitrary Symmetric Running Gait Generation for an Underactuated Biped Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behnam Dadashzadeh

    Full Text Available This paper investigates generating symmetric trajectories for an underactuated biped during the stance phase of running. We use a point mass biped (PMB model for gait analysis that consists of a prismatic force actuator on a massless leg. The significance of this model is its ability to generate more general and versatile running gaits than the spring-loaded inverted pendulum (SLIP model, making it more suitable as a template for real robots. The algorithm plans the necessary leg actuator force to cause the robot center of mass to undergo arbitrary trajectories in stance with any arbitrary attack angle and velocity angle. The necessary actuator forces follow from the inverse kinematics and dynamics. Then these calculated forces become the control input to the dynamic model. We compare various center-of-mass trajectories, including a circular arc and polynomials of the degrees 2, 4 and 6. The cost of transport and maximum leg force are calculated for various attack angles and velocity angles. The results show that choosing the velocity angle as small as possible is beneficial, but the angle of attack has an optimum value. We also find a new result: there exist biped running gaits with double-hump ground reaction force profiles which result in less maximum leg force than single-hump profiles.

  5. Arbitrary Symmetric Running Gait Generation for an Underactuated Biped Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadashzadeh, Behnam; Esmaeili, Mohammad; Macnab, Chris

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates generating symmetric trajectories for an underactuated biped during the stance phase of running. We use a point mass biped (PMB) model for gait analysis that consists of a prismatic force actuator on a massless leg. The significance of this model is its ability to generate more general and versatile running gaits than the spring-loaded inverted pendulum (SLIP) model, making it more suitable as a template for real robots. The algorithm plans the necessary leg actuator force to cause the robot center of mass to undergo arbitrary trajectories in stance with any arbitrary attack angle and velocity angle. The necessary actuator forces follow from the inverse kinematics and dynamics. Then these calculated forces become the control input to the dynamic model. We compare various center-of-mass trajectories, including a circular arc and polynomials of the degrees 2, 4 and 6. The cost of transport and maximum leg force are calculated for various attack angles and velocity angles. The results show that choosing the velocity angle as small as possible is beneficial, but the angle of attack has an optimum value. We also find a new result: there exist biped running gaits with double-hump ground reaction force profiles which result in less maximum leg force than single-hump profiles.

  6. Online coupled regional meteorology chemistry models in Europe : Current status and prospects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baklanov, A.; Schlünzen, K.; Suppan, P.; Baldasano, J.; Brunner, D.; Aksoyoglu, S.; Carmichael, G.; Douros, J.; Flemming, J.; Forkel, R.; Galmarini, S.; Gauss, M.; Grell, G.; Hirtl, M.; Joffre, S.; Jorba, O.; Kaas, E.; Kaasik, M.; Kallos, G.; Kong, X.; Korsholm, U.; Kurganskiy, A.; Kushta, J.; Lohmann, U.; Mahura, A.; Manders-Groot, A.; Maurizi, A.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Rao, S.T.; Savage, N.; Seigneur, C.; Sokhi, R.S.; Solazzo, E.; Solomos, S.; Sørensen, B.; Tsegas, G.; Vignati, E.; Vogel, B.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-01-01

    Online coupled mesoscale meteorology atmospheric chemistry models have undergone a rapid evolution in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modelling community, these models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and regional climate modelling as they can consider

  7. New Constraints on the running-mass inflation model

    OpenAIRE

    Covi, Laura; Lyth, David H.; Melchiorri, Alessandro

    2002-01-01

    We evaluate new observational constraints on the two-parameter scale-dependent spectral index predicted by the running-mass inflation model by combining the latest Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) anisotropy measurements with the recent 2dFGRS data on the matter power spectrum, with Lyman $\\alpha $ forest data and finally with theoretical constraints on the reionization redshift. We find that present data still allow significant scale-dependence of $n$, which occurs in a physically reasonabl...

  8. Black hole constraints on the running-mass inflation model

    OpenAIRE

    Leach, Samuel M; Grivell, Ian J; Liddle, Andrew R

    2000-01-01

    The running-mass inflation model, which has strong motivation from particle physics, predicts density perturbations whose spectral index is strongly scale-dependent. For a large part of parameter space the spectrum rises sharply to short scales. In this paper we compute the production of primordial black holes, using both analytic and numerical calculation of the density perturbation spectra. Observational constraints from black hole production are shown to exclude a large region of otherwise...

  9. The running-mass inflation model and WMAP

    OpenAIRE

    Covi, Laura; Lyth, David H.; Melchiorri, Alessandro; Odman, Carolina J.

    2004-01-01

    We consider the observational constraints on the running-mass inflationary model, and in particular on the scale-dependence of the spectral index, from the new Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) anisotropy measurements performed by WMAP and from new clustering data from the SLOAN survey. We find that the data strongly constraints a significant positive scale-dependence of $n$, and we translate the analysis into bounds on the physical parameters of the inflaton potential. Looking deeper into sp...

  10. Testing the importance of accurate meteorological input fields and parameterizations in atmospheric transport modelling using DREAM - Validation against ETEX-1

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, J.; Bastrup-Birk, A.; Christensen, J.H.

    1998-01-01

    A tracer model, the DREAM, which is based on a combination of a near-range Lagrangian model and a long-range Eulerian model, has been developed. The meteorological meso-scale model, MM5V1, is implemented as a meteorological driver for the tracer model. The model system is used for studying...

  11. An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources - Part 1: Input meteorological forcing and natural hydrological cycle modules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.; Masuda, K.; Motoya, K.; Shen, Y.; Tanaka, K.

    2007-10-01

    application to investigate the subannual variability in water resources. GSWP2 participants are encouraged to re-run their model using this newly developed meteorological forcing input, which is in identical format to the original GSWP2 forcing input.

  12. Mapping the Martian Meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, M.; Ross, J. D.; Solomon, N.

    1999-01-01

    The Mars-adapted version of the NASA/GISS general circulation model (GCM) has been applied to the hourly/daily simulation of the planet's meteorology over several seasonal orbits. The current running version of the model includes a diurnal solar cycle, CO2 sublimation, and a mature parameterization of upper level wave drag with a vertical domain extending from the surface up to the 6microb level. The benchmark simulations provide a four-dimensional archive for the comparative evaluation of various schemes for the retrieval of winds from anticipated polar orbiter measurements of temperatures by the Pressure Modulator Infrared Radiometer. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  13. Coupling meteorological and hydrological models to evaluate the uncertainty in runoff forecasting: the case study of Maggiore Lake basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceppi, A.; Ravazzani, G.; Rabuffetti, D.; Mancini, M.

    2009-04-01

    observed data to run the control simulations were supplied by ARPA-Piemonte. The study is focused on Maggiore Lake basin, an alpine basin between North-West of Italy and Southern Switzerland; results and statistical testing of the re-analyses shown in this presentation, are subdivided for each of three smaller sub-basins: Toce, Ticino and Maggia, in order to demonstrate the research progress on coupling meteorological and hydrological models in particular orographic features. It is presented how the meteorological forecasts are efficient into hydrological forecasting system, how the ensemble predictions are powerful to evaluate the uncertainty of the QPF which affects the QDF and the whole hydro-meteorological alert system for a mountain catchment. Further, in order to control the quality of the hydrological predictions in the short and medium term, statistical methods are used to calculate how the skill scores can be applied for hydrological applications and how the ensemble forecasts can help the users for decision making in management situations. Two significant events are analysed in order to compare the behaviour of the model driven by different weather scenarios: one convective in June that has yielded a high peak flow and one light stratiform in November that has been studied for the snow melt temperature which has affected the liquid precipitation and therefore the forecasted runoff. It is shown how the entire rainfall, the liquid precipitation and the runoff change in function of an areal the sub-basin scale, in order to understand where the errors are more frequently encountered.

  14. Transitioning Enhanced Land Surface Initialization and Model Verification Capabilities to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Mungai, John; Sakwa, Vincent; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Limaye, Ashutosh; Blankenship, Clay B.

    2016-01-01

    Flooding, severe weather, and drought are key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), based in Nairobi, Kenya. Atmospheric processes leading to convection, excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content, especially during anomalous conditions and dry/wet seasonal transitions. It is thus important to represent accurately land surface state variables (green vegetation fraction, soil moisture, and soil temperature) in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The NASA SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) programs in Huntsville, AL have established a working partnership with KMD to enhance its regional modeling capabilities. SPoRT and SERVIR are providing experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities for capacity building at KMD. To support its forecasting operations, KMD is running experimental configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; Skamarock et al. 2008) model on a 12-km/4-km nested regional domain over eastern Africa, incorporating the land surface datasets provided by NASA SPoRT and SERVIR. SPoRT, SERVIR, and KMD participated in two training sessions in March 2014 and June 2015 to foster the collaboration and use of unique land surface datasets and model verification capabilities. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather and climate outlooks over Eastern Africa. For enhanced land-surface initialization, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run over Eastern Africa at 3-km resolution, providing real-time land surface initialization data in place of interpolated global model soil moisture and temperature data available at coarser resolutions. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction (GVF) composites from the Suomi-NPP VIIRS instrument is being incorporated

  15. Evaluating the performance of ENVI-met model in diurnal cycles for different meteorological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acero, Juan A.; Arrizabalaga, Jon

    2018-01-01

    Urban areas are known to modify meteorological variables producing important differences in small spatial scales (i.e. microscale). These affect human thermal comfort conditions and the dispersion of pollutants, especially those emitted inside the urban area, which finally influence quality of life and the use of public open spaces. In this study, the diurnal evolution of meteorological variables measured in four urban spaces is compared with the results provided by ENVI-met (v 4.0). Measurements were carried out during 3 days with different meteorological conditions in Bilbao in the north of the Iberian Peninsula. The evaluation of the model accuracy (i.e. the degree to which modelled values approach measured values) was carried out with several quantitative difference metrics. The results for air temperature and humidity show a good agreement of measured and modelled values independently of the regional meteorological conditions. However, in the case of mean radiant temperature and wind speed, relevant differences are encountered highlighting the limitation of the model to estimate these meteorological variables precisely during diurnal cycles, in the considered evaluation conditions (sites and weather).

  16. Sensitivity of hydrological modeling to meteorological data and implications for climate change studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, L.G.; Roy, R.; Desrochers, G.E.; Vaillancourt, C.; Chartier, I.

    2008-01-01

    Sources of uncertainty associated with hydrological modelling were explored in relation to climatic change. The aim of the study was to compare and evaluate meteorological data sources used in conjunction with a hydrological model of a watershed in southwestern Quebec. Projected changes of mean annual flow were simulated. Five different sources of meteorological data from weather stations, reanalysis data, and 2 regional climate models were used to provide atmospheric driving boundary conditions for a limited area climate model. The hydrological model was calibrated with each of the datasets from 1961 to 1980. The model's different parameter sets were then used to model streamflow between 1981 and 2000. The resulting streamflow series were then compared with observed streamflows of the Quebec watershed. Results of the study demonstrated significant differences between the 5 datasets. Hydrological model parameters also influenced the accuracy of the model. Uncertainties related to climatic change were largely associated with the meteorological data used to calibrate the model. It was concluded that further studies are needed to understand the influence of meteorological data in climatic change watershed studies. refs., tabs., figs

  17. Improvement of disease prediction and modeling through the use of meteorological ensembles: human plague in Uganda.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean M Moore

    Full Text Available Climate and weather influence the occurrence, distribution, and incidence of infectious diseases, particularly those caused by vector-borne or zoonotic pathogens. Thus, models based on meteorological data have helped predict when and where human cases are most likely to occur. Such knowledge aids in targeting limited prevention and control resources and may ultimately reduce the burden of diseases. Paradoxically, localities where such models could yield the greatest benefits, such as tropical regions where morbidity and mortality caused by vector-borne diseases is greatest, often lack high-quality in situ local meteorological data. Satellite- and model-based gridded climate datasets can be used to approximate local meteorological conditions in data-sparse regions, however their accuracy varies. Here we investigate how the selection of a particular dataset can influence the outcomes of disease forecasting models. Our model system focuses on plague (Yersinia pestis infection in the West Nile region of Uganda. The majority of recent human cases have been reported from East Africa and Madagascar, where meteorological observations are sparse and topography yields complex weather patterns. Using an ensemble of meteorological datasets and model-averaging techniques we find that the number of suspected cases in the West Nile region was negatively associated with dry season rainfall (December-February and positively with rainfall prior to the plague season. We demonstrate that ensembles of available meteorological datasets can be used to quantify climatic uncertainty and minimize its impacts on infectious disease models. These methods are particularly valuable in regions with sparse observational networks and high morbidity and mortality from vector-borne diseases.

  18. The Effective Standard Model after LHC Run I

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; You, Tevong

    2015-01-01

    We treat the Standard Model as the low-energy limit of an effective field theory that incorporates higher-dimensional operators to capture the effects of decoupled new physics. We consider the constraints imposed on the coefficients of dimension-6 operators by electroweak precision tests (EWPTs), applying a framework for the effects of dimension-6 operators on electroweak precision tests that is more general than the standard $S,T$ formalism, and use measurements of Higgs couplings and the kinematics of associated Higgs production at the Tevatron and LHC, as well as triple-gauge couplings at the LHC. We highlight the complementarity between EWPTs, Tevatron and LHC measurements in obtaining model-independent limits on the effective Standard Model after LHC Run~1. We illustrate the combined constraints with the example of the two-Higgs doublet model.

  19. The effective Standard Model after LHC Run I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellis, John; Sanz, Verónica; You, Tevong

    2015-01-01

    We treat the Standard Model as the low-energy limit of an effective field theory that incorporates higher-dimensional operators to capture the effects of decoupled new physics. We consider the constraints imposed on the coefficients of dimension-6 operators by electroweak precision tests (EWPTs), applying a framework for the effects of dimension-6 operators on electroweak precision tests that is more general than the standard S,T formalism, and use measurements of Higgs couplings and the kinematics of associated Higgs production at the Tevatron and LHC, as well as triple-gauge couplings at the LHC. We highlight the complementarity between EWPTs, Tevatron and LHC measurements in obtaining model-independent limits on the effective Standard Model after LHC Run 1. We illustrate the combined constraints with the example of the two-Higgs doublet model.

  20. 1-D blood flow modelling in a running human body.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szabó, Viktor; Halász, Gábor

    2017-07-01

    In this paper an attempt was made to simulate blood flow in a mobile human arterial network, specifically, in a running human subject. In order to simulate the effect of motion, a previously published immobile 1-D model was modified by including an inertial force term into the momentum equation. To calculate inertial force, gait analysis was performed at different levels of speed. Our results show that motion has a significant effect on the amplitudes of the blood pressure and flow rate but the average values are not effected significantly.

  1. New constraints on the running-mass inflation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Covi, L.; Lyth, D.H.; Melchiorri, A.

    2002-10-01

    We evaluate new observational constraints on the two-parameter scale-dependent spectral index predicted by the running-mass inflation model by combining the latest cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy measurements with the recent 2dFGRS data on the matter power spectrum, with Lyman α forest data and finally with theoretical constraints on the reionization redshift. We find that present data still allow significant scale-dependence of n, which occurs in a physically reasonable regime of parameter space. (orig.)

  2. EDgE multi-model hydro-meteorological seasonal hindcast experiments over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Rakovec, Oldrich; Wood, Eric; Sheffield, Justin; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Prudhomme, Christel

    2017-04-01

    , Spain, and UK indicate that extreme events such as the 2003 European drought can be forecasted consistently by all models at short lead times of one to two months. At six month lead time, the 208 model realizations show little skill to forecast extreme events. The predictability of extreme events is not uniformly distributed across Europe. For example, Northern Europe exhibits higher predictability due to the persistence induced by cold processes (e.g., snow). In general, the major source of poor forecasting skill is the little skill in precipitation forecast. References http://climate.copernicus.eu/edge-end-end-demonstrator-improved-decision-making-water-sector-europe Bohn, T. J. , B., Livneh J. W. Oyler, S. W. Running, B. Nijssen, D. P. Lettenmaier, 2013: Global evaluation of MTCLIM and related algorithms for forcing of ecological and hydrological models. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 176 , pp. 38-49. Samaniego, L., R. Kumar, and S. Attinger (2010), Multiscale parameter regionalization of a grid-based hydrologic model at the mesoscale, Water Resource Research, 46, W05523, doi:10.1029/2008WR007327 Thober, S., R. Kumar, J. Sheffield, J. Mai, D. Schaefer, and L. Samaniego, 2015: Seasonal soil moisture drought prediction over Europe using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). J. Hydrometeor., 16, 2329-2344.

  3. [Study on meteorological factors-based neural network model of malaria].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Chun-yu; Xiong, Hong-yan; Yi, Dong; Chai, Guang-jun; Yang, Xiao-wei; Liu, Li

    2003-09-01

    In order to provide reliable data for strategies development on prevention, a meteorological factors-based predicating model for malaria forecast was studied. Data on malaria occurrence and climate changes from 1994 to 1999 in counties in Yunnan province was collected and analyzed with software packages of FoxPro 6.0 and Excel 5.0. The forecasting model for malaria occurrence was established, using the Neural Network Toolbox of Matlab 6.1 software package. In the studies of forecasting model, data of malaria and meteorological factors from 1994 to 1999 in Honghe state in Yunnan province was chosen. The meteorological factors included average monthly pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, monthly maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, rainfall, rainday, evaporation and sunshine hours in the study. The established forecasting model was also tested and verified. The BP network model was established according to data of diseases and meteorological factors from Honghe state in Yunnan province. After training the neural network for 100 times, the error of performance decreased from 3.23608 to 0.035862. Verified by fact data of malaria, the efficiency of malaria forecasting was 84.85%. Neural network model was effective for forecasting malaria. It showed advantages as: strong ability for analysis, lower claim for data, convenient and easy to apply etc. Neural network model might be used as a new method for malaria forecasting.

  4. Sensitivity of mesoscale model urban boundary layer meteorology to the scale of urban representation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. D. Flagg

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Mesoscale modeling of the urban boundary layer requires careful parameterization of the surface due to its heterogeneous morphology. Model estimated meteorological quantities, including the surface energy budget and canopy layer variables, will respond accordingly to the scale of representation. This study examines the sensitivity of the surface energy balance, canopy layer and boundary layer meteorology to the scale of urban surface representation in a real urban area (Detroit-Windsor (USA-Canada during several dry, cloud-free summer periods. The model used is the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model with its coupled single-layer urban canopy model. Some model verification is presented using measurements from the Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study (BAQS-Met 2007 field campaign and additional sources. Case studies span from "neighborhood" (10 s ~308 m to very coarse (120 s ~3.7 km resolution. Small changes in scale can affect the classification of the surface, affecting both the local and grid-average meteorology. Results indicate high sensitivity in turbulent latent heat flux from the natural surface and sensible heat flux from the urban canopy. Small scale change is also shown to delay timing of a lake-breeze front passage and can affect the timing of local transition in static stability.

  5. Modelling the long-run supply of coal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steenblik, R.P.

    1992-01-01

    There are many issues facing policy-makers in the fields of energy and the environment that require knowledge of coal supply and cost. Such questions arise in relation to decisions concerning, for example, the discontinuation of subsidies, or the effects of new environmental laws. The very complexity of these questions makes them suitable for analysis by models. Indeed, models have been used for analysing the behaviour of coal markets and the effects of public policies on them for many years. For estimating short-term responses econometric models are the most suitable. For estimating the supply of coal over the longer term, however - i.e., coal that would come from mines as yet not developed - depletion has to be taken into account. Underlying the normal supply curve relating cost to the rate of production is a curve that increases with cumulative production - what mineral economists refer to as the potential supply curve. To derive such a curve requires at some point in the analysis using process-oriented modelling techniques. Because coal supply curves can convey so succinctly information about the resource's long-run supply potential and costs, they have been influential in several major public debates on energy policy. And, within the coal industry itself, they have proved to be powerful tools for undertaking market research and long-range planning. The purpose of this paper is to describe in brief the various approaches that have been used to model long-run coal supply, to highlight their strengths, and to identify areas in which further progress is needed. (author)

  6. Dispersion modeling of accidental releases of toxic gases - Sensitivity study and optimization of the meteorological input

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumann-Stanzer, K.; Stenzel, S.

    2009-04-01

    Several air dispersion models are available for prediction and simulation of the hazard areas associated with accidental releases of toxic gases. The most model packages (commercial or free of charge) include a chemical database, an intuitive graphical user interface (GUI) and automated graphical output for effective presentation of results. The models are designed especially for analyzing different accidental toxic release scenarios ("worst-case scenarios"), preparing emergency response plans and optimal countermeasures as well as for real-time risk assessment and management. Uncertainties in the meteorological input together with incorrect estimates of the source play a critical role for the model results. The research project RETOMOD (reference scenarios calculations for toxic gas releases - model systems and their utility for the fire brigade) was conducted by the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) in cooperation with the Vienna fire brigade, OMV Refining & Marketing GmbH and Synex Ries & Greßlehner GmbH. RETOMOD was funded by the KIRAS safety research program at the Austrian Ministry of Transport, Innovation and Technology (www.kiras.at). The main tasks of this project were 1. Sensitivity study and optimization of the meteorological input for modeling of the hazard areas (human exposure) during the accidental toxic releases. 2. Comparison of several model packages (based on reference scenarios) in order to estimate the utility for the fire brigades. This presentation gives a short introduction to the project and presents the results of task 1 (meteorological input). The results of task 2 are presented by Stenzel and Baumann-Stanzer in this session. For the aim of this project, the observation-based analysis and forecasting system INCA, developed in the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) was used. INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) data were calculated with 1 km horizontal resolution and

  7. Integrating spatio-temporal environmental models for planning ski runs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pfeffer, Karin

    2003-01-01

    The establishment of ski runs and ski lifts, the action of skiing and maintenance of ski runs may cause considerable environmental impact. Clearly, for improvements to be made in the planning of ski runs in alpine terrain a good understanding of the environmental system and the response of

  8. Using Deep Learning Model for Meteorological Satellite Cloud Image Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, X.

    2017-12-01

    A satellite cloud image contains much weather information such as precipitation information. Short-time cloud movement forecast is important for precipitation forecast and is the primary means for typhoon monitoring. The traditional methods are mostly using the cloud feature matching and linear extrapolation to predict the cloud movement, which makes that the nonstationary process such as inversion and deformation during the movement of the cloud is basically not considered. It is still a hard task to predict cloud movement timely and correctly. As deep learning model could perform well in learning spatiotemporal features, to meet this challenge, we could regard cloud image prediction as a spatiotemporal sequence forecasting problem and introduce deep learning model to solve this problem. In this research, we use a variant of Gated-Recurrent-Unit(GRU) that has convolutional structures to deal with spatiotemporal features and build an end-to-end model to solve this forecast problem. In this model, both the input and output are spatiotemporal sequences. Compared to Convolutional LSTM(ConvLSTM) model, this model has lower amount of parameters. We imply this model on GOES satellite data and the model perform well.

  9. Crop growth modelling and crop yield forecasting using satellite derived meteorological inputs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wit, de A.J.W.; Diepen, van K.

    2006-01-01

    One of the key challenges for operational crop monitoring and yield forecasting using crop models is to find spatially representative meteorological input data. Currently, weather inputs are often interpolated from low density networks of weather stations or derived from output from coarse (0.5

  10. Online-coupled meteorology and chemistry models: history, current status, and outlook

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The climate-chemistry-aerosol-cloud-radiation feedbacks are important processes occurring in the atmosphere. Accurately simulating those feedbacks requires fully-coupled meteorology, climate, and chemistry models and presents significant challenges in terms of both scientific understanding and computational demand. This paper reviews the history and current status of the development and application of online-coupled meteorology and chemistry models, with a focus on five representative models developed in the US including GATOR-GCMOM, WRF/Chem, CAM3, MIRAGE, and Caltech unified GCM. These models represent the current status and/or the state-of-the science treatments of online-coupled models worldwide. Their major model features, typical applications, and physical/chemical treatments are compared with a focus on model treatments of aerosol and cloud microphysics and aerosol-cloud interactions. Aerosol feedbacks to planetary boundary layer meteorology and aerosol indirect effects are illustrated with case studies for some of these models. Future research needs for model development, improvement, application, as well as major challenges for online-coupled models are discussed.

  11. Bridging the Radiative Transfer Models for Meteorology and Solar Energy Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Y.; Sengupta, M.

    2017-12-01

    Radiative transfer models are used to compute solar radiation reaching the earth surface and play an important role in both meteorology and solar energy studies. Therefore, they are designed to meet the needs of specialized applications. For instance, radiative transfer models for meteorology seek to provide more accurate cloudy-sky radiation compared to models used in solar energy that are geared towards accuracy in clear-sky conditions associated with the maximum solar resource. However, models for solar energy applications are often computationally faster, as the complex solution of the radiative transfer equation is parameterized by atmospheric properties that can be acquired from surface- or satellite-based observations. This study introduces the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) recent efforts to combine the advantages of radiative transfer models designed for meteorology and solar energy applictions. A fast all-sky radiation model, FARMS-NIT, was developed to efficiently compute narrowband all-sky irradiances over inclined photovoltaic (PV) panels. This new model utilizes the optical preperties from a solar energy model, SMARTS, to computes surface radiation by considering all possible paths of photon transmission and the relevent scattering and absorption attenuation. For cloudy-sky conditions, cloud bidirectional transmittance functions (BTDFs) are provided by a precomputed lookup table (LUT) by LibRadtran. Our initial results indicate that FARMS-NIT has an accuracy that is similar to LibRadtran, a highly accurate multi-stream model, but is significantly more efficient. The development and validation of this model will be presented.

  12. Use of data assimilation procedures in the meteorological pre-processors of decision support systems to improve the meteorological input of atmospheric dispersion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovalets, I.; Andronopoulos, S.; Bartzis, J.G.

    2003-01-01

    Full text: The Atmospheric Dispersion Models (ADMs) play a key role in decision support systems for nuclear emergency management, as they are used to determine the current, and predict the future spatial distribution of radionuclides after an accidental release of radioactivity to the atmosphere. Meteorological pre-processors (MPPs), usually act as interface between the ADMs and the incoming meteorological data. Therefore the quality of the results of the ADMs crucially depends on the input that they receive from the MPPs. The meteorological data are measurements from one or more stations in the vicinity of the nuclear power plant and/or prognostic data from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models of National Weather Services. The measurements are representative of the past and current local conditions, while the NWP data cover a wider range in space and future time, where no measurements exist. In this respect, the simultaneous use of both by an MPP immediately poses the questions of consistency and of the appropriate methodology for reconciliation of the two kinds of meteorological data. The main objective of the work presented in this paper is the introduction of data assimilation (DA) techniques in the MPP of the RODOS (Real-time On-line Decision Support) system for nuclear emergency management in Europe, developed under the European Project 'RODOS-Migration', to reconcile the NWP data with the local observations coming from the meteorological stations. More specifically, in this paper: the methodological approach for simultaneous use of both meteorological measurements and NWP data in the MPP is presented; the method is validated by comparing results of calculations with experimental data; future ways of improvement of the meteorological input for the calculations of the atmospheric dispersion in the RODOS system are discussed. The methodological approach for solving the DA problem developed in this work is based on the method of optimal interpolation (OI

  13. Model selection for local and regional meteorological normalisation of background concentrations of tropospheric ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libiseller, Claudia; Grimvall, Anders

    Meteorological normalisation of time series of air quality data aims to extract anthropogenic signals by removing natural fluctuations in the collected data. We showed that the currently used procedures to select normalisation models can cause over-fitting to observed data and undesirable smoothing of anthropogenic signals. A simulation study revealed that the risk of such effects is particularly large when: (i) the observed data are serially correlated, (ii) the normalisation model is selected by leave-one-out cross-validation, and (iii) complex models, such as artificial neural networks, are fitted to data. When the size of the test sets used in the cross-validation was increased, and only moderately complex linear models were fitted to data, the over-fitting was less pronounced. An empirical study of the predictive ability of different normalisation models for tropospheric ozone in Finland confirmed the importance of using appropriate model selection strategies. Moderately complex regional models involving contemporaneous meteorological data from a network of stations were found to be superior to single-site models as well as more complex regional models involving both contemporaneous and time-lagged meteorological data from a network of stations.

  14. Modelling regional scale surface fluxes, meteorology and CO2 mixing ratios for the Cabauw tower in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tolk, L.F.; Peters, W.; Meesters, A.G.C.A.; Groenendijk, M.; Vermeulen, A.T.; Steeneveld, G.J.; Dolman, A.J.

    2009-01-01

    We simulated meteorology and atmospheric CO2 transport over the Netherlands with the mesoscale model RAMS-Leaf3 coupled to the biospheric CO2 flux model 5PM. The results were compared with meteorological and CO2 observations, with emphasis on the tall tower of Cabauw. An analysis of the coupled

  15. A Meteorological Information Mining-Based Wind Speed Model for Adequacy Assessment of Power Systems With Wind Power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Yifei; Gao, Houlei; Wu, Qiuwei

    2017-01-01

    factors are calculated. Secondly, the meteorological data are classified into several states using an improved Fuzzy C-means (FCM) algorithm. Then the Markov chain is used to model the chronological characteristics of meteorological states and wind speed. The proposed model was proved to be more accurate...

  16. The Impacts of Different Meteorology Data Sets on Nitrogen Fate and Transport in the SWAT Watershed Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this study, we investigated how different meteorology data sets impacts nitrogen fate and transport responses in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We used two meteorology data sets: National Climatic Data Center (observed) and Mesoscale Model 5/Weather Research ...

  17. Modeling the Effects of Meteorological Conditions on the Neutron Flux

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-22

    from the readings online so for the purpose of the model estimation the four missing values were imputed. Then all the data in MATLAB was placed into a...Naval Academy’s machine shop to be manufactured. By 21SEP17, the brackets where finished and ready to be mounted the station. But due to having... shop made it to those dimensions. When the brackets where attempted to be placed on the pipe they would not fit because the pipe was really a 178

  18. Machine learning modeling of plant phenology based on coupling satellite and gridded meteorological dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czernecki, Bartosz; Nowosad, Jakub; Jabłońska, Katarzyna

    2018-04-01

    Changes in the timing of plant phenological phases are important proxies in contemporary climate research. However, most of the commonly used traditional phenological observations do not give any coherent spatial information. While consistent spatial data can be obtained from airborne sensors and preprocessed gridded meteorological data, not many studies robustly benefit from these data sources. Therefore, the main aim of this study is to create and evaluate different statistical models for reconstructing, predicting, and improving quality of phenological phases monitoring with the use of satellite and meteorological products. A quality-controlled dataset of the 13 BBCH plant phenophases in Poland was collected for the period 2007-2014. For each phenophase, statistical models were built using the most commonly applied regression-based machine learning techniques, such as multiple linear regression, lasso, principal component regression, generalized boosted models, and random forest. The quality of the models was estimated using a k-fold cross-validation. The obtained results showed varying potential for coupling meteorological derived indices with remote sensing products in terms of phenological modeling; however, application of both data sources improves models' accuracy from 0.6 to 4.6 day in terms of obtained RMSE. It is shown that a robust prediction of early phenological phases is mostly related to meteorological indices, whereas for autumn phenophases, there is a stronger information signal provided by satellite-derived vegetation metrics. Choosing a specific set of predictors and applying a robust preprocessing procedures is more important for final results than the selection of a particular statistical model. The average RMSE for the best models of all phenophases is 6.3, while the individual RMSE vary seasonally from 3.5 to 10 days. Models give reliable proxy for ground observations with RMSE below 5 days for early spring and late spring phenophases. For

  19. Modeling analysis of secondary inorganic aerosols over China: pollution characteristics, and meteorological and dust impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Fu, Xiao; Wang, Shuxiao; Chang, Xing; Cai, Siyi; Xing, Jia; Hao, Jiming

    2016-01-01

    Secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA) are the predominant components of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and have significant impacts on air quality, human health, and climate change. In this study, the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) was modified to incorporate SO2 heterogeneous reactions on the surface of dust particles. The revised model was then used to simulate the spatiotemporal characteristics of SIA over China and analyze the impacts of meteorological factors and d...

  20. Assessment of NASA's Physiographic and Meteorological Datasets as Input to HSPF and SWAT Hydrological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alacron, Vladimir J.; Nigro, Joseph D.; McAnally, William H.; OHara, Charles G.; Engman, Edwin Ted; Toll, David

    2011-01-01

    This paper documents the use of simulated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer land use/land cover (MODIS-LULC), NASA-LIS generated precipitation and evapo-transpiration (ET), and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) datasets (in conjunction with standard land use, topographical and meteorological datasets) as input to hydrological models routinely used by the watershed hydrology modeling community. The study is focused in coastal watersheds in the Mississippi Gulf Coast although one of the test cases focuses in an inland watershed located in northeastern State of Mississippi, USA. The decision support tools (DSTs) into which the NASA datasets were assimilated were the Soil Water & Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF). These DSTs are endorsed by several US government agencies (EPA, FEMA, USGS) for water resources management strategies. These models use physiographic and meteorological data extensively. Precipitation gages and USGS gage stations in the region were used to calibrate several HSPF and SWAT model applications. Land use and topographical datasets were swapped to assess model output sensitivities. NASA-LIS meteorological data were introduced in the calibrated model applications for simulation of watershed hydrology for a time period in which no weather data were available (1997-2006). The performance of the NASA datasets in the context of hydrological modeling was assessed through comparison of measured and model-simulated hydrographs. Overall, NASA datasets were as useful as standard land use, topographical , and meteorological datasets. Moreover, NASA datasets were used for performing analyses that the standard datasets could not made possible, e.g., introduction of land use dynamics into hydrological simulations

  1. 2013 CEF RUN - PHASE 1 DATA ANALYSIS AND MODEL VALIDATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, A.

    2014-05-08

    Phase 1 of the 2013 Cold cap Evaluation Furnace (CEF) test was completed on June 3, 2013 after a 5-day round-the-clock feeding and pouring operation. The main goal of the test was to characterize the CEF off-gas produced from a nitric-formic acid flowsheet feed and confirm whether the CEF platform is capable of producing scalable off-gas data necessary for the revision of the DWPF melter off-gas flammability model; the revised model will be used to define new safety controls on the key operating parameters for the nitric-glycolic acid flowsheet feeds including total organic carbon (TOC). Whether the CEF off-gas data were scalable for the purpose of predicting the potential flammability of the DWPF melter exhaust was determined by comparing the predicted H{sub 2} and CO concentrations using the current DWPF melter off-gas flammability model to those measured during Phase 1; data were deemed scalable if the calculated fractional conversions of TOC-to-H{sub 2} and TOC-to-CO at varying melter vapor space temperatures were found to trend and further bound the respective measured data with some margin of safety. Being scalable thus means that for a given feed chemistry the instantaneous flow rates of H{sub 2} and CO in the DWPF melter exhaust can be estimated with some degree of conservatism by multiplying those of the respective gases from a pilot-scale melter by the feed rate ratio. This report documents the results of the Phase 1 data analysis and the necessary calculations performed to determine the scalability of the CEF off-gas data. A total of six steady state runs were made during Phase 1 under non-bubbled conditions by varying the CEF vapor space temperature from near 700 to below 300°C, as measured in a thermowell (T{sub tw}). At each steady state temperature, the off-gas composition was monitored continuously for two hours using MS, GC, and FTIR in order to track mainly H{sub 2}, CO, CO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, and organic gases such as CH{sub 4}. The standard

  2. Dynamical system approach to running Λ cosmological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stachowski, Aleksander; Szydlowski, Marek

    2016-01-01

    We study the dynamics of cosmological models with a time dependent cosmological term. We consider five classes of models; two with the non-covariant parametrization of the cosmological term Λ: Λ(H)CDM cosmologies, Λ(a)CDM cosmologies, and three with the covariant parametrization of Λ: Λ(R)CDM cosmologies, where R(t) is the Ricci scalar, Λ(φ)-cosmologies with diffusion, Λ(X)-cosmologies, where X = (1)/(2)g αβ ∇ α ∇ β φ is a kinetic part of the density of the scalar field. We also consider the case of an emergent Λ(a) relation obtained from the behaviour of trajectories in a neighbourhood of an invariant submanifold. In the study of the dynamics we used dynamical system methods for investigating how an evolutionary scenario can depend on the choice of special initial conditions. We show that the methods of dynamical systems allow one to investigate all admissible solutions of a running Λ cosmology for all initial conditions. We interpret Alcaniz and Lima's approach as a scaling cosmology. We formulate the idea of an emergent cosmological term derived directly from an approximation of the exact dynamics. We show that some non-covariant parametrization of the cosmological term like Λ(a), Λ(H) gives rise to the non-physical behaviour of trajectories in the phase space. This behaviour disappears if the term Λ(a) is emergent from the covariant parametrization. (orig.)

  3. The Run 2 ATLAS Analysis Event Data Model

    CERN Document Server

    SNYDER, S; The ATLAS collaboration; NOWAK, M; EIFERT, T; BUCKLEY, A; ELSING, M; GILLBERG, D; MOYSE, E; KOENEKE, K; KRASZNAHORKAY, A

    2014-01-01

    During the LHC's first Long Shutdown (LS1) ATLAS set out to establish a new analysis model, based on the experience gained during Run 1. A key component of this is a new Event Data Model (EDM), called the xAOD. This format, which is now in production, provides the following features: A separation of the EDM into interface classes that the user code directly interacts with, and data storage classes that hold the payload data. The user sees an Array of Structs (AoS) interface, while the data is stored in a Struct of Arrays (SoA) format in memory, thus making it possible to efficiently auto-vectorise reconstruction code. A simple way of augmenting and reducing the information saved for different data objects. This makes it possible to easily decorate objects with new properties during data analysis, and to remove properties that the analysis does not need. A persistent file format that can be explored directly with ROOT, either with or without loading any additional libraries. This allows fast interactive naviga...

  4. Aerosol-radiation interaction modelling using online coupling between the WRF 3.7.1 meteorological model and the CHIMERE 2016 chemistry-transport model, through the OASIS3-MCT coupler

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briant, Régis; Tuccella, Paolo; Deroubaix, Adrien; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Menut, Laurent; Mailler, Sylvain; Turquety, Solène

    2017-02-01

    The presence of airborne aerosols affects the meteorology as it induces a perturbation in the radiation budget, the number of cloud condensation nuclei and the cloud micro-physics. Those effects are difficult to model at regional scale as regional chemistry-transport models are usually driven by a distinct meteorological model or data. In this paper, the coupling of the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model with the WRF meteorological model using the OASIS3-MCT coupler is presented. WRF meteorological fields along with CHIMERE aerosol optical properties are exchanged through the coupler at a high frequency in order to model the aerosol-radiation interactions. The WRF-CHIMERE online model has a higher computational burden than both models run separately in offline mode (up to 42 % higher). This is mainly due to some additional computations made within the models such as more frequent calls to meteorology treatment routines or calls to optical properties computation routines. On the other hand, the overall time required to perform the OASIS3-MCT exchanges is not significant compared to the total duration of the simulations. The impact of the coupling is evaluated on a case study over Europe, northern Africa, the Middle East and western Asia during the summer of 2012, through comparisons of the offline and two online simulations (with and without the aerosol optical properties feedback) to observations of temperature, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface PM10 (particulate matter with diameters lower than 10 µm) concentrations. The result shows that using the optical properties feedback induces a radiative forcing (average forcing of -4.8 W m-2) which creates a perturbation in the average surface temperatures over desert areas (up to 2.6° locally) along with an increase in both AOD and PM10 concentrations.

  5. A simple estimation model of aerosol optical thickness based on meteorological station observed atmospheric visibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhu; Chen, Jianyu; Gong, Shaoqi; Mao, Zhihua; Hao, Zengzhou

    2013-09-01

    Aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and atmospheric visibility are two important weather parameters. AOT reflects the state of the atmosphere,-and atmospheric visibility is widely used in various aspects of social life. Generally, it is reported in literatures that both of them are affected by Air Pollutants and other meteorological factors, such as surface pressure, ground temperature, wind speed, precipitation. In this paper, a statistic relationship expression is established between AOT and atmospheric visibility on the basis of the point-to-point meteorological observations. In the national region, the correlation between atmospheric visibility and weather factors indicates that the surface pressure has great influence on atmospheric visibility all the year round. And the influence based on precipitation is more obvious in spring and summer, mean-while wind speed and temperature play important roles in autumn and winter. A significant positive correlation was found between AOT and API. To express the relationship between atmospheric visibility and AOT, some computable models were utilized. According to the accuracy analysis, the cubic curve model and the power function model are more accurate. And both RMSE (root-mean-square error) of them is higher than 0.47. But the coefficient of cubic curve is more complex in practice. Finally, a simple estimation model of aerosol optical thickness based on meteorological station observed atmospheric visibility was conducted using power function. The Pearson coefficient between calculation of power function and observation is 0.73.

  6. Lewis Fry Richardson and his Contributions to Mathematics, Meteorology, and Models of Conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, J. C. R.

    The life and major scientific contributions of Lewis Fry Richardson (1881-1953) are reviewed, with particular emphasis on his pioneering work in numerical analysis, meteorology, and numerical weather prediction. His later work on mathematical modeling of psychology, causes of conflict, and the statistics of wars is outlined in terms understandable to fluid dynamicists. It is included because it led to Richardson's discovery of one aspect of fractals, an analytical technique now recognized as valuable in the study of complex fluid motions.

  7. Modeling PM2.5 Urban Pollution Using Machine Learning and Selected Meteorological Parameters

    OpenAIRE

    Kleine Deters, Jan; Zalakeviciute, Rasa; Gonzalez, Mario; Rybarczyk, Yves

    2017-01-01

    Outdoor air pollution costs millions of premature deaths annually, mostly due to anthropogenic fine particulate matter (or PM2.5). Quito, the capital city of Ecuador, is no exception in exceeding the healthy levels of pollution. In addition to the impact of urbanization, motorization, and rapid population growth, particulate pollution is modulated by meteorological factors and geophysical characteristics, which complicate the implementation of the most advanced models of weather forecast. Thu...

  8. Application of WRF/Chem-MADRID and WRF/Polyphemus in Europe – Part 1: Model description, evaluation of meteorological predictions, and aerosol–meteorology interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Comprehensive model evaluation and comparison of two 3-D air quality modeling systems (i.e., the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF/Polyphemus and WRF with chemistry and the Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ionization, and Dissolution (MADRID (WRF/Chem-MADRID are conducted over Western Europe. Part 1 describes the background information for the model comparison and simulation design, the application of WRF for January and July 2001 over triple-nested domains in Western Europe at three horizontal grid resolutions: 0.5°, 0.125°, and 0.025°, and the effect of aerosol/meteorology interactions on meteorological predictions. Nine simulated meteorological variables (i.e., downward shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes (SWDOWN and LWDOWN, outgoing longwave radiation flux (OLR, temperature at 2 m (T2, specific humidity at 2 m (Q2, relative humidity at 2 m (RH2, wind speed at 10 m (WS10, wind direction at 10 m (WD10, and precipitation (Precip are evaluated using available observations in terms of spatial distribution, domainwide daily and site-specific hourly variations, and domainwide performance statistics. The vertical profiles of temperature, dew points, and wind speed/direction are also evaluated using sounding data. WRF demonstrates its capability in capturing diurnal/seasonal variations and spatial gradients and vertical profiles of major meteorological variables. While the domainwide performance of LWDOWN, OLR, T2, Q2, and RH2 at all three grid resolutions is satisfactory overall, large positive or negative biases occur in SWDOWN, WS10, and Precip even at 0.125° or 0.025° in both months and in WD10 in January. In addition, discrepancies between simulations and observations exist in T2, Q2, WS10, and Precip at mountain/high altitude sites and large urban center sites in both months, in particular, during snow events or thunderstorms. These results indicate the model's difficulty in capturing meteorological variables in complex

  9. Modelling of Muscle Force Distributions During Barefoot and Shod Running

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinclair Jonathan

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Research interest in barefoot running has expanded considerably in recent years, based around the notion that running without shoes is associated with a reduced incidence of chronic injuries. The aim of the current investigation was to examine the differences in the forces produced by different skeletal muscles during barefoot and shod running. Fifteen male participants ran at 4.0 m·s-1 (± 5%. Kinematics were measured using an eight camera motion analysis system alongside ground reaction force parameters. Differences in sagittal plane kinematics and muscle forces between footwear conditions were examined using repeated measures or Freidman’s ANOVA. The kinematic analysis showed that the shod condition was associated with significantly more hip flexion, whilst barefoot running was linked with significantly more flexion at the knee and plantarflexion at the ankle. The examination of muscle kinetics indicated that peak forces from Rectus femoris, Vastus medialis, Vastus lateralis, Tibialis anterior were significantly larger in the shod condition whereas Gastrocnemius forces were significantly larger during barefoot running. These observations provide further insight into the mechanical alterations that runners make when running without shoes. Such findings may also deliver important information to runners regarding their susceptibility to chronic injuries in different footwear conditions.

  10. Modeling PM2.5 Urban Pollution Using Machine Learning and Selected Meteorological Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Kleine Deters

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Outdoor air pollution costs millions of premature deaths annually, mostly due to anthropogenic fine particulate matter (or PM2.5. Quito, the capital city of Ecuador, is no exception in exceeding the healthy levels of pollution. In addition to the impact of urbanization, motorization, and rapid population growth, particulate pollution is modulated by meteorological factors and geophysical characteristics, which complicate the implementation of the most advanced models of weather forecast. Thus, this paper proposes a machine learning approach based on six years of meteorological and pollution data analyses to predict the concentrations of PM2.5 from wind (speed and direction and precipitation levels. The results of the classification model show a high reliability in the classification of low (25 µg/m3 and low (<10 µg/m3 versus moderate (10–25 µg/m3 concentrations of PM2.5. A regression analysis suggests a better prediction of PM2.5 when the climatic conditions are getting more extreme (strong winds or high levels of precipitation. The high correlation between estimated and real data for a time series analysis during the wet season confirms this finding. The study demonstrates that the use of statistical models based on machine learning is relevant to predict PM2.5 concentrations from meteorological data.

  11. LES-based generation of high-frequency fluctuation in wind turbulence obtained by meteorological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, Tetsuro; Kawaguchi, Masaharu; Kawai, Hidenori; Tao, Tao

    2017-11-01

    The connection between a meso-scale model and a micro-scale large eddy simulation (LES) is significant to simulate the micro-scale meteorological problem such as strong convective events due to the typhoon or the tornado using LES. In these problems the mean velocity profiles and the mean wind directions change with time according to the movement of the typhoons or tornadoes. Although, a fine grid micro-scale LES could not be connected to a coarse grid meso-scale WRF directly. In LES when the grid is suddenly refined at the interface of nested grids which is normal to the mean advection the resolved shear stresses decrease due to the interpolation errors and the delay of the generation of smaller scale turbulence that can be resolved on the finer mesh. For the estimation of wind gust disaster the peak wind acting on buildings and structures has to be correctly predicted. In the case of meteorological model the velocity fluctuations have a tendency of diffusive variation without the high frequency component due to the numerically filtering effects. In order to predict the peak value of wind velocity with good accuracy, this paper proposes a LES-based method for generating the higher frequency components of velocity and temperature fields obtained by meteorological model.

  12. Modeling drought impact occurrence based on meteorological drought indices in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagge, James H.; Kohn, Irene; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stahl, Kerstin

    2015-11-01

    There is a vital need for research that links meteorological drought indices with drought impacts felt on the ground. Previously, this link has been estimated based on experience or defined based on very narrow impact measures. This study expands on earlier work by showing the feasibility of relating user-provided impact reports with meteorological drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, through logistic regression, while controlling for seasonal and interannual effects. Analysis includes four impact types, spanning agriculture, energy and industry, public water supply, and freshwater ecosystem across five European countries. Statistically significant climate indices are retained as predictors using step-wise regression and used to compare the most relevant drought indices and accumulation periods across different impact types and regions. Agricultural impacts are explained by 2-12 month anomalies, though anomalies greater than 3 months are likely related to agricultural management practices. Energy and industrial impacts, typically related to hydropower and energy cooling water, respond slower (6-12 months). Public water supply and freshwater ecosystem impacts are explained by a more complex combination of short (1-3 month) and seasonal (6-12 month) anomalies. The resulting drought impact models have both good model fit (pseudo-R2 = 0.225-0.716) and predictive ability, highlighting the feasibility of using such models to predict drought impact likelihood based on meteorological drought indices.

  13. Predicting residential air exchange rates from questionnaires and meteorology: model evaluation in central North Carolina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breen, Michael S; Breen, Miyuki; Williams, Ronald W; Schultz, Bradley D

    2010-12-15

    A critical aspect of air pollution exposure models is the estimation of the air exchange rate (AER) of individual homes, where people spend most of their time. The AER, which is the airflow into and out of a building, is a primary mechanism for entry of outdoor air pollutants and removal of indoor source emissions. The mechanistic Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) AER model was linked to a leakage area model to predict AER from questionnaires and meteorology. The LBL model was also extended to include natural ventilation (LBLX). Using literature-reported parameter values, AER predictions from LBL and LBLX models were compared to data from 642 daily AER measurements across 31 detached homes in central North Carolina, with corresponding questionnaires and meteorological observations. Data was collected on seven consecutive days during each of four consecutive seasons. For the individual model-predicted and measured AER, the median absolute difference was 43% (0.17 h(-1)) and 40% (0.17 h(-1)) for the LBL and LBLX models, respectively. Additionally, a literature-reported empirical scale factor (SF) AER model was evaluated, which showed a median absolute difference of 50% (0.25 h(-1)). The capability of the LBL, LBLX, and SF models could help reduce the AER uncertainty in air pollution exposure models used to develop exposure metrics for health studies.

  14. Study of drought processes in Spain by means of offline Land-Surface Model simulations. Evaluation of model sensitivity to the meteorological forcing dataset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintana-Seguí, Pere; Míguez-Macho, Gonzalo; Barella-Ortiz, Anaïs

    2017-04-01

    Drought affects different aspects of the continental water cycle, from precipitation (meteorological drought), to soil moisture (agricultural drought), streamflow, lake volume and piezometric levels (hydrological drought). The spatial and temporal scales of drought, together with its propagation through the system must be well understood. Drought is a hazard impacting all climates and regions of the world; but in some areas, such as Spain, its societal impacts may be especially severe, creating water resources related tensions between regions and sectors. Indices are often used to characterize different aspects of drought. Similar indices can be built for precipitation (SPI), soil moisture (SSMI), and streamflow (SSI), allowing to analyse the temporal scales of drought and its spatial patterns. Precipitation and streamflow data are abundant in Spain; however soil moisture data is scarce. Land-Surface Models (LSM) physically simulate the continental water cycle and, thus, are appropriate tools to quantify soil moisture and other relevant variables and processes. These models can be run offline, forced by a gridded dataset of meteorological variables, usually a re-analysis. The quality of the forcing dataset affects the quality of the subsequent modeling results and is, thus, crucial. The objective of this study is to investigate how sensitive LSM simulations are to the forcing dataset, with a focus on drought. A global and a local dataset are used at different resolutions. The global dataset is the eartH2Observe dataset, which is based on ERA-Interim. The local dataset is the SAFRAN meteorological analysis system. The LSMs used are SURFEX and LEAFHYDRO. Standardized indices of the relevant variables are produced for all the simulations performed. Then, we analyze how differently drought propagates through the system in the different simulations and how similar are spatial and temporal scales of drought. The results of this study will be useful to understand the

  15. A meteorological potential forecast model for acid rain in Fujian Province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yi Yong; Lin, Chang Cheng; Liu, Jing Xiong; Wu, De Hui; Lian, Dong Ying; Chen, Bin Bin

    2010-05-01

    Based on the acid rain and concurrent meteorological observational data during the past 10 years in Fujian Province, China, the dependence of distribution characteristics of acid rain on season, rain rate, weather pattern and dominant airflow in four regions of Fujian Province is analyzed. On the annual average, the acid rain frequency is the highest (above 40%) in the southern and mid-eastern regions, and the lowest (16.2%) in the western region. The acid rain occurs most frequently in spring and winter, and least frequent in summer. The acid rain frequency in general increases with the increase of precipitation. It also depend on the direction of dominant airflows at 850 hPa. In the mid-eastern region, more than 40% acid rains appear when the dominant wind directions are NW, W, SW, S and SE. In the southern region, high acid rain occurrence happens when the dominant wind directions are NW, W, SW and S. In the northern region, 41.8% acid rains occur when the southwesterly is pronounced. In the western region, the southwesterly is associated with a 17% acid rain rate. The examination of meteorological sounding conditions over Fuzhou, Xiamen and Shaowu cities shows that the acid rain frequency increases with increased inversion thickness. Based on the results above, a meteorological potential forecast model for acid rain is established and tested in 2007. The result is encouraging. The model provides an objective basis for the development of acid rain forecasting operation in the province.

  16. MODELING OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GROUNDWATER FLOW AND OTHER METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES USING FUZZY LOGIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şaban YURTÇU

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, modeling of the effect of rainfall, flow and evaporation as independent variables on the change of underground water levels as dependent variables were investigated by fuzzy logic (FL. In the study, total 396 values taken from six observation stations belong to Afyon inferior basin in Akarçay from 1977 to 1989 years were used. Using the monthly average values of stations, the change of underground water level was modeled by FL. It is observed that the results obtained from FL and the observations are compatible with each other. This shows FL modeling can be used to estimate groundwater levels from the appropriate meteorological value.

  17. Modeling of meteorology, chemistry and aerosol for the 2017 Utah Winter Fine Particle Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKeen, S. A.; Angevine, W. M.; McDonald, B.; Ahmadov, R.; Franchin, A.; Middlebrook, A. M.; Fibiger, D. L.; McDuffie, E. E.; Womack, C.; Brown, S. S.; Moravek, A.; Murphy, J. G.; Trainer, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Utah Winter Fine Particle Study (UWFPS-17) field project took place during January and February of 2017 within the populated region of the Great Salt Lake, Utah. The study focused on understanding the meteorology and chemistry associated with high particulate matter (PM) levels often observed near Salt Lake City during stable wintertime conditions. Detailed composition and meteorological observations were taken from the NOAA Twin-Otter aircraft and several surface sites during the study period, and extremely high aerosol conditions were encountered for two cold-pool episodes occurring in the last 2 weeks of January. A clear understanding of the photochemical and aerosol processes leading to these high PM events is still lacking. Here we present high spatiotemporal resolution simulations of meteorology, PM and chemistry over Utah from January 13 to February 1, 2017 using the WRF/Chem photochemical model. Correctly characterizing the meteorology is difficult due to the complex terrain and shallow inversion layers. We discuss the approach and limitations of the simulated meteorology, and evaluate low-level pollutant mixing using vertical profiles from missed airport approaches by the NOAA Twin-Otter performed routinely during each flight. Full photochemical simulations are calculated using NOx, ammonia and VOC emissions from the U.S. EPA NEI-2011 emissions inventory. Comparisons of the observed vertical column amounts of NOx, ammonia, aerosol nitrate and ammonium with model results shows the inventory estimates for ammonia emissions are low by a factor of four and NOx emissions are low by nearly a factor of two. The partitioning of both nitrate and NH3 between gas and particle phase depends strongly on the NH3 and NOx emissions to the model and calculated NOx to nitrate conversion rates. These rates are underestimated by gas-phase chemistry alone, even though surface snow albedo increases photolysis rates by nearly a factor of two. Several additional conversion

  18. Approaches in highly parameterized inversion - GENIE, a general model-independent TCP/IP run manager

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muffels, Christopher T.; Schreuder, Willem A.; Doherty, John E.; Karanovic, Marinko; Tonkin, Matthew J.; Hunt, Randall J.; Welter, David E.

    2012-01-01

    GENIE is a model-independent suite of programs that can be used to generally distribute, manage, and execute multiple model runs via the TCP/IP infrastructure. The suite consists of a file distribution interface, a run manage, a run executer, and a routine that can be compiled as part of a program and used to exchange model runs with the run manager. Because communication is via a standard protocol (TCP/IP), any computer connected to the Internet can serve in any of the capacities offered by this suite. Model independence is consistent with the existing template and instruction file protocols of the widely used PEST parameter estimation program. This report describes (1) the problem addressed; (2) the approach used by GENIE to queue, distribute, and retrieve model runs; and (3) user instructions, classes, and functions developed. It also includes (4) an example to illustrate the linking of GENIE with Parallel PEST using the interface routine.

  19. Examination of atmospheric dynamic model's performance over complex terrain under temporally changing synoptic meteorological conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Haruyasu; Yamazawa, Hiromi

    1995-01-01

    The mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model, a submodel of the numerical atmospheric dispersion model named PHYSIC, was improved and its performance was examined in a coastal area with a complex terrain. To introduce temporally changing synoptic meteorological conditions into the model, the initial and boundary conditions were improved. Moreover, land surface temperature calculations were modified to apply the model to snow-covered areas. These improvements worked effectively in the model simulation of four series of the observations during winter and summer in 1992. The model successfully simulated the wind fields and its temporal variations under the condition of strong westerlies and a land and sea breeze. Limitation of model's performance caused by the temporal and spatial resolutions of input data was also discussed. (author)

  20. Developing the Model for the GIS Applications in National Hydro-Meteorological Service in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubacka, D.; Barszczynska, M.; Madej, P.

    2003-04-01

    Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMWM) manages the national hydrological-meteorological service, the task of which is to maintain the network of stations, process data, as well issue warnings, reports and announcements. There are 5 divisions of IMWM scattered all over Poland. Each division includes numerous stations and the scientific-research departments. The data gathered, processed and analysed in IMWM are space-related, therefore spatial information systems are indispensable for its processing and visualisation. The project of GIS application in (IMWM) will be discussed in the presentation. With the divisions being so dispersed, numerous and heterogeneous in structure, GIS implementation is very complicated. On the one hand GIS should enable advanced spatial analyses to be carried out by the research, as well as data processing departments. On the other hand, it should provide passive access to a limited scope of information (e.g. for outside customers). Need analysis was carried out first. It resulted in proposals concerning the content of shared resources of geometrical data and connections with attribute data, as well as in proposals of GIS use in routine works. A model was prepared using various types of GIS software depending on the requirements of each division. It is based on standard solutions involving professional GIS, desktop GIS and simple tools for data presentation. In some departments the specialised software had to be taken into account (e.g. satellite data processing). It is necessary to develop and implement dedicated research methods for some individual tasks. The analysis of mapping requirements showed that there is a need to prepare thematic maps at least at two levels of detail. Presently, the works are concentrated on assembling thematic layers for a general map (at 1: 500000 scale) sufficient for many applications, including data visualisation in the Internet and IMWM publications, as well as the tool for measurements and

  1. Linear Multivariable Regression Models for Prediction of Eddy Dissipation Rate from Available Meteorological Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    MCKissick, Burnell T. (Technical Monitor); Plassman, Gerald E.; Mall, Gerald H.; Quagliano, John R.

    2005-01-01

    Linear multivariable regression models for predicting day and night Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) from available meteorological data sources are defined and validated. Model definition is based on a combination of 1997-2000 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) data sources, EDR from Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) deployment data, and regression variables primarily from corresponding Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) data. Model validation is accomplished through EDR predictions on a similar combination of 1994-1995 Memphis (MEM) AVOSS and ASOS data. Model forms include an intercept plus a single term of fixed optimal power for each of these regression variables; 30-minute forward averaged mean and variance of near-surface wind speed and temperature, variance of wind direction, and a discrete cloud cover metric. Distinct day and night models, regressing on EDR and the natural log of EDR respectively, yield best performance and avoid model discontinuity over day/night data boundaries.

  2. Short-run and Current Analysis Model in Statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Anghelache

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Using the short-run statistic indicators is a compulsory requirement implied in the current analysis. Therefore, there is a system of EUROSTAT indicators on short run which has been set up in this respect, being recommended for utilization by the member-countries. On the basis of these indicators, there are regular, usually monthly, analysis being achieved in respect of: the production dynamic determination; the evaluation of the short-run investment volume; the development of the turnover; the wage evolution: the employment; the price indexes and the consumer price index (inflation; the volume of exports and imports and the extent to which the imports are covered by the exports and the sold of trade balance. The EUROSTAT system of indicators of conjuncture is conceived as an open system, so that it can be, at any moment extended or restricted, allowing indicators to be amended or even removed, depending on the domestic users requirements as well as on the specific requirements of the harmonization and integration. For the short-run analysis, there is also the World Bank system of indicators of conjuncture, which is utilized, relying on the data sources offered by the World Bank, The World Institute for Resources or other international organizations statistics. The system comprises indicators of the social and economic development and focuses on the indicators for the following three fields: human resources, environment and economic performances. At the end of the paper, there is a case study on the situation of Romania, for which we used all these indicators.

  3. Statistical modeling of phenological phases in Poland based on coupling satellite derived products and gridded meteorological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czernecki, Bartosz; Jabłońska, Katarzyna; Nowosad, Jakub

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the study was to create and evaluate different statistical models for reconstructing and predicting selected phenological phases. This issue is of particular importance in Poland where national-wide phenological monitoring was abandoned in the middle of 1990s and the reactivated network was established in 2006. Authors decided to evaluate possibilities of using a wide-range of statistical modeling techniques to create synthetic archive dataset. Additionally, a robust tool for predicting the most distinguishable phenophases using only free of charge data as predictors was created. Study period covers the years 2007-2014 and contains only quality-controlled dataset of 10 species and 14 phenophases. Phenological data used in this study originates from the manual observations network run by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB). Three kind of data sources were used as predictors: (i) satellite derived products, (ii) preprocessed gridded meteorological data, and (iii) spatial properties (longitude, latitude, altitude) of the monitoring site. Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) level-3 vegetation products were used for detecting onset dates of particular phenophases. Following indices were used: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Leaf Area Index (LAI), and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fPAR). Additionally, Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) products were chosen to detect occurrence of snow cover. Due to highly noisy data, authors decided to take into account pixel reliability information. Besides satellite derived products (NDVI, EVI, FPAR, LAI, Snow cover), a wide group of observational data and agrometeorological indices derived from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D) were used as a potential predictors: cumulative growing degree days (GDD), cumulative growing precipitation days (GPD

  4. Ground-based remote sensing profiling and numerical weather prediction model to manage nuclear power plants meteorological surveillance in Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Calpini

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The meteorological surveillance of the four nuclear power plants in Switzerland is of first importance in a densely populated area such as the Swiss Plateau. The project "Centrales Nucléaires et Météorologie" CN-MET aimed at providing a new security tool based on one hand on the development of a high resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP model. The latter is providing essential nowcasting information in case of a radioactive release from a nuclear power plant in Switzerland. On the other hand, the model input over the Swiss Plateau is generated by a dedicated network of surface and upper air observations including remote sensing instruments (wind profilers and temperature/humidity passive microwave radiometers. This network is built upon three main sites ideally located for measuring the inflow/outflow and central conditions of the main wind field in the planetary boundary layer over the Swiss Plateau, as well as a number of surface automatic weather stations (AWS. The network data are assimilated in real-time into the fine grid NWP model using a rapid update cycle of eight runs per day (one forecast every three hours. This high resolution NWP model has replaced the former security tool based on in situ observations (in particular one meteorological mast at each of the power plants and a local dispersion model. It is used to forecast the dynamics of the atmosphere in the planetary boundary layer (typically the first 4 km above ground layer and over a time scale of 24 h. This tool provides at any time (e.g. starting at the initial time of a nuclear power plant release the best picture of the 24-h evolution of the air mass over the Swiss Plateau and furthermore generates the input data (in the form of simulated values substituting in situ observations required for the local dispersion model used at each of the nuclear power plants locations. This paper is presenting the concept and two validation studies as well as the results of an

  5. 10 km running performance predicted by a multiple linear regression model with allometrically adjusted variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abad, Cesar C C; Barros, Ronaldo V; Bertuzzi, Romulo; Gagliardi, João F L; Lima-Silva, Adriano E; Lambert, Mike I; Pires, Flavio O

    2016-06-01

    The aim of this study was to verify the power of VO 2max , peak treadmill running velocity (PTV), and running economy (RE), unadjusted or allometrically adjusted, in predicting 10 km running performance. Eighteen male endurance runners performed: 1) an incremental test to exhaustion to determine VO 2max and PTV; 2) a constant submaximal run at 12 km·h -1 on an outdoor track for RE determination; and 3) a 10 km running race. Unadjusted (VO 2max , PTV and RE) and adjusted variables (VO 2max 0.72 , PTV 0.72 and RE 0.60 ) were investigated through independent multiple regression models to predict 10 km running race time. There were no significant correlations between 10 km running time and either the adjusted or unadjusted VO 2max . Significant correlations (p 0.84 and power > 0.88. The allometrically adjusted predictive model was composed of PTV 0.72 and RE 0.60 and explained 83% of the variance in 10 km running time with a standard error of the estimate (SEE) of 1.5 min. The unadjusted model composed of a single PVT accounted for 72% of the variance in 10 km running time (SEE of 1.9 min). Both regression models provided powerful estimates of 10 km running time; however, the unadjusted PTV may provide an uncomplicated estimation.

  6. An integrated system for wind energy forecast using meteorological models and statistical post-processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, P.; Rodrigues, A.; Lopes, J.; Palma, J.; Tome, R.; Sousa, J.; Bessa, R.; Matos, J.

    2009-12-01

    With 3GW of installed wind turbines, corresponding to 23% of the total electric grid, and a 5-year plan that will grow that value above 5GW (near 40% of the grid), Portugal has been a recent success case for renewable energy development. Clearly such large share of wind energy in the national electric system implies a strong requirement for accurate wind forecasts, that can be used to forecast this highly variable energy source and allow for timely decision making in the energy markets, namely for on and off switching of alternative conventional sources. In the past 3 years, a system for 72h energy forecast in mainland Portugal was setup, using 6km resolution meteorological forecasts, forced by global GFS forecasts by NCEP. In the development phase, different boundary conditions (from NCEP and ECMWF) were tested, as well as different limited area models (namely MM5, Aladin, MesoNH and WRF) at resolutions from 12 to 2km, which were evaluated by comparison with wind observations at heights relevant for wind turbines (up to 80m) in different locations and for different synoptic conditions. The developed system, which works with a real time connection with wind farms, also includes a post-processing code that merges recent wind observations with the meteorological forecast, and converts the forecasted wind fields into forecasted energy, by incorporating empirical transfer functions of the wind farm. Wind conditions in Portugal are highly influenced by topography, as most wind farms are located in complex terrain, often in mountainous terrain, where stratification plays a significant role. Coastal effects are also highly relevant, especially during the Summer, where a strong diurnal cycle of the sea-breeze is superimposed on an equally strong boundary layer development, both with a significant impact on low level winds. These two ingredients tend to complicate wind forecasts, requiring fully developed meteorological models. In general, results from 2 full years of

  7. Pembangunan Aplikasi Pengolahan Data Unsur Cuaca Pada Stasiun Meteorologi Kota Tegal Berbasis Model Waterfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Khambali

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Untuk mendapatkan suatu pengolahan data yang cepat dan akurat serta dikelola dengan baik tentunya harus mempunyai sebuah sistem pengelolaan yang baik. Aplikasi pengolahan data unsur cuaca disusulkan pada penelitian ini. Dengan menggunakan model waterfall menjadikan tahapan dalam pengembangan sistem yang dibuat menjadi terstruktur dengan baik tahapannya. Dengan dibangunnya aplikasi pengolahan data unsur cuaca, maka kendala yang dihadapi oleh stasiun meteorologi Tegal khususnya dibagian pengamatan yaitu dalam penghitungan unsur cuaca dapat ditanggulangi sehingga dapat mempermudah dalam memperoleh laporan tentang data unsur cuaca.

  8. Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kock, A.

    1996-05-01

    The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies

  9. Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kock, A.

    1996-05-01

    The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies.

  10. Evaluating the effects of model structure and meteorological input data on runoff modelling in an alpine headwater basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schattan, Paul; Bellinger, Johannes; Förster, Kristian; Schöber, Johannes; Huttenlau, Matthias; Kirnbauer, Robert; Achleitner, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Modelling water resources in snow-dominated mountainous catchments is challenging due to both, short concentration times and a highly variable contribution of snow melt in space and time from complex terrain. A number of model setups exist ranging from physically based models to conceptional models which do not attempt to represent the natural processes in a physically meaningful way. Within the flood forecasting system for the Tyrolean Inn River two serially linked hydrological models with differing process representation are used. Non- glacierized catchments are modelled by a semi-distributed, water balance model (HQsim) based on the HRU-approach. A fully-distributed energy and mass balance model (SES), purpose-built for snow- and icemelt, is used for highly glacierized headwater catchments. Previous work revealed uncertainties and limitations within the models' structures regarding (i) the representation of snow processes in HQsim, (ii) the runoff routing of SES, and (iii) the spatial resolution of the meteorological input data in both models. To overcome these limitations, a "strengths driven" model coupling is applied. Instead of linking the models serially, a vertical one-way coupling of models has been implemented. The fully-distributed snow modelling of SES is combined with the semi-distributed HQsim structure, allowing to benefit from soil and runoff routing schemes in HQsim. A monte-carlo based modelling experiment was set up to evaluate the resulting differences in the runoff prediction due to the improved model coupling and a refined spatial resolution of the meteorological forcing. The experiment design follows a gradient of spatial discretisation of hydrological processes and meteorological forcing data with a total of six different model setups for the alpine headwater basin of the Fagge River in the Tyrolean Alps. In general, all setups show a good performance for this particular basin. It is therefore planned to include other basins with differing

  11. Understanding Mars meteorology using a "new generation" Mars Global Climate Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forget, F.; Madeleine, J.-B.; Millour, E.; Colaitis, A.; Spiga, A.; Montabone, L.; Chaufray, J.-Y.; Lefèvre, F.; Montmessin, F.; Määttänen, A.; Gonzalez-Galindo, F.; Lopez-Valverde, M.-A.

    2011-10-01

    For more than 20 years, several teams around the world have developed GCMs (Mars General Circulation Model or Mars Global Climate) to simulate the environment on Mars. The GCM developed at the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique in collaboration with several teams in Europe (LATMOS, France, University of Oxford, The Open University, the Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia), and with the support of ESA and CNES. is currently used for many kind of applications. It has become a "Mars System Model" which, for instance, includes the water cycle, the dust cycle, several photochemistry cycles, the release and transport of Radon, water isotopes cycles, a therrmosphere and a Ionosphere. It can also be used to explore Mars past climates. Moreover the outputs of the GCM are available to the community and to engineers through the Mars Climate Database, a tool available on a DVD-Rom and used by more than 150 teams around the world. For all these applications, it is more important than ever that the model accurately simulates the "fundamentals" of the Martian meteorology: pressure, temperature, winds. However, several recent studies have revealed that to simulate the details of Mars meteorology one must take into account several processes previously neglected like the radiative effect of water ice clouds, complex variations in the vertical distribution of dust including the formation of detached layers of dust, complex coupling in the CO2 cycle which control the pressure cycle and the temperatures at high latitude, etc.

  12. Modeling analysis of secondary inorganic aerosols over China: pollution characteristics, and meteorological and dust impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Xiao; Wang, Shuxiao; Chang, Xing; Cai, Siyi; Xing, Jia; Hao, Jiming

    2016-10-01

    Secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA) are the predominant components of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and have significant impacts on air quality, human health, and climate change. In this study, the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) was modified to incorporate SO2 heterogeneous reactions on the surface of dust particles. The revised model was then used to simulate the spatiotemporal characteristics of SIA over China and analyze the impacts of meteorological factors and dust on SIA formation. Including the effects of dust improved model performance for the simulation of SIA concentrations, particularly for sulfate. The simulated annual SIA concentration in China was approximately 10.1 μg/m3 on domain average, with strong seasonal variation: highest in winter and lowest in summer. High SIA concentrations were concentrated in developed regions with high precursor emissions, such as the North China Plain, Yangtze River Delta, Sichuan Basin, and Pearl River Delta. Strong correlations between meteorological factors and SIA pollution levels suggested that heterogeneous reactions under high humidity played an important role on SIA formation, particularly during severe haze pollution periods. Acting as surfaces for heterogeneous reactions, dust particles significantly affected sulfate formation, suggesting the importance of reducing dust emissions for controlling SIA and PM2.5 pollution.

  13. Artificial Neural Network Model in Prediction of Meteorological Parameters during Premonsoon Thunderstorms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Litta

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting thunderstorm is one of the most difficult tasks in weather prediction, due to their rather small spatial and temporal extension and the inherent nonlinearity of their dynamics and physics. Accurate forecasting of severe thunderstorms is critical for a large range of users in the community. In this paper, experiments are conducted with artificial neural network model to predict severe thunderstorms that occurred over Kolkata during May 3, 11, and 15, 2009, using thunderstorm affected meteorological parameters. The capabilities of six learning algorithms, namely, Step, Momentum, Conjugate Gradient, Quick Propagation, Levenberg-Marquardt, and Delta-Bar-Delta, in predicting thunderstorms and the usefulness for the advanced prediction were studied and their performances were evaluated by a number of statistical measures. The results indicate that Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm well predicted thunderstorm affected surface parameters and 1, 3, and 24 h advanced prediction models are able to predict hourly temperature and relative humidity adequately with sudden fall and rise during thunderstorm hour. This demonstrates its distinct capability and advantages in identifying meteorological time series comprising nonlinear characteristics. The developed model can be useful in decision making for meteorologists and others who work with real-time thunderstorm forecast.

  14. Seamless Meteorology-Composition Models: Challenges, Gaps, Needs and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Bernhard; Baklanov, Alexander; Bouchet, Véronique; Marécal, Virginie; Benedetti, Angela; Heinke Schlünzen, K.

    2016-04-01

    Seamless meteorology - composition - chemistry models (SMCM) have several advantages: They allow the consideration of two - way interactions (i.e. feedbacks), ensure synergies in research, development, maintenance and application. "Seamless" is introduced here in relation to two aspects. Firstly, at the process - scale where it refers to the coupling within a model of meteorology and composition processes to represent for example the two - way interactions between composition and radiative processes or microphysics, or the consistent treatment of water vapor. Secondly, in terms time and space where it refers to the absence of discontinuities in model behavior when used at multiple temporal or spatial resolutions to have for example consistent treatment of black carbon for air quality and climate applications. SMCMs describe the relevant processes to investigate long - standing scientific questions on the interactions between atmospheric constituents and atmospheric processes and support the creation of new environmental prediction services. This paper presents a review of the current research status of SMCMs and recommendations to address limitations in weather, climate and atmospheric composition fields whose interests, applications and challenges are now overlapping. The contribution highlights the challenges towards seamlessness and presents priority areas for research to further this path. It will present examples where SMCMs are already in or close to operational use.

  15. Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreher, Joseph; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian; Van Speybroeck, Kurt

    2009-01-01

    The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) is responsible for providing meteorological support to state and county emergency management agencies across East Central Florida in the event of incidents involving the significant release of harmful chemicals, radiation, and smoke from fires and/or toxic plumes into the atmosphere. NWS MLB uses the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to provide trajectory, concentration, and deposition guidance during such events. Accurate and timely guidance is critical for decision makers charged with protecting the health and well-being of populations at risk. Information that can describe the geographic extent of areas possibly affected by a hazardous release, as well as to indicate locations of primary concern, offer better opportunity for prompt and decisive action. In addition, forecasters at the NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have expressed interest in using the HYSPLIT model to assist with Weather Flight Rules during Space Shuttle landing operations. In particular, SMG would provide low and mid-level HYSPLIT trajectory forecasts for cumulus clouds associated with smoke plumes, and high-level trajectory forecasts for thunderstorm anvils. Another potential benefit for both NWS MLB and SMG is using the HYSPLIT model concentration and deposition guidance in fog situations.

  16. Assessing the Relationship Between Meteorological Parameters, Air Pollution And Cardiovascular Mortality of Mashhad City Based on Time Series Model

    OpenAIRE

    Morteza Hatami; Mitra Mohammadi Mohammadi; Reza Esmaeli; Mandana Mohammadi

    2017-01-01

    Epidemiological studies conducted in the past two decades indicate that air pollution causes increase in cardiovascular, breathing and chronic bronchitis disorders and even causes cardiovascular mortality. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between meteorological parameters, air pollution and cardiovascular mortality in the city of Mashhad in 2014 by a time series model. Data on mortality from cardiovascular disease, meteorological parameters and air pollutio...

  17. Systems-level computational modeling demonstrates fuel selection switching in high capacity running and low capacity running rats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Nathan R.

    2018-01-01

    High capacity and low capacity running rats, HCR and LCR respectively, have been bred to represent two extremes of running endurance and have recently demonstrated disparities in fuel usage during transient aerobic exercise. HCR rats can maintain fatty acid (FA) utilization throughout the course of transient aerobic exercise whereas LCR rats rely predominantly on glucose utilization. We hypothesized that the difference between HCR and LCR fuel utilization could be explained by a difference in mitochondrial density. To test this hypothesis and to investigate mechanisms of fuel selection, we used a constraint-based kinetic analysis of whole-body metabolism to analyze transient exercise data from these rats. Our model analysis used a thermodynamically constrained kinetic framework that accounts for glycolysis, the TCA cycle, and mitochondrial FA transport and oxidation. The model can effectively match the observed relative rates of oxidation of glucose versus FA, as a function of ATP demand. In searching for the minimal differences required to explain metabolic function in HCR versus LCR rats, it was determined that the whole-body metabolic phenotype of LCR, compared to the HCR, could be explained by a ~50% reduction in total mitochondrial activity with an additional 5-fold reduction in mitochondrial FA transport activity. Finally, we postulate that over sustained periods of exercise that LCR can partly overcome the initial deficit in FA catabolic activity by upregulating FA transport and/or oxidation processes. PMID:29474500

  18. Motivational Meteorology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benjamin, Lee

    1993-01-01

    Describes an introductory meteorology course for nonacademic high school students. The course is made hands-on by the use of an educational software program offered by Accu-Weather. The program contains a meteorology database and instructional modules. (PR)

  19. Instantaneous Linkages between Clouds and Large-Scale Meteorology over the Southern Ocean in Observations and a Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wall, Casey J. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Hartmann, Dennis L. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Ma, Po-Lun [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

    2017-12-01

    Instantaneous, coincident, footprint-level satellite observations of cloud properties and radiation taken during austral summer over the Southern Ocean are used to study relationships between clouds and large-scale meteorology. Cloud properties are very sensitive to the strength of vertical motion in the middle-troposphere, and low-cloud properties are sensitive to estimated inversion strength, low-level temperature advection, and sea surface temperature. These relationships are quantified. An index for the meteorological anomalies associated with midlatitude cyclones is presented, and it is used to reveal the sensitivity of clouds to the meteorology within the warm- and cold-sector of cyclones. The observed relationships between clouds and meteorology are compared to those in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) using satellite simulators. Low-clouds simulated by CAM5 are too few, too bright, and contain too much ice, and low-clouds located in the cold-sector of cyclones are too sensitive to variations in the meteorology. The latter two biases are dramatically reduced when CAM5 is coupled with an updated boundary layer parameterization know as Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB). More generally, this study demonstrates that examining the instantaneous timescale is a powerful approach to understanding the physical processes that control clouds and how they are represented in climate models. Such an evaluation goes beyond the cloud climatology and exposes model bias under various meteorological conditions.

  20. Impaired voluntary wheel running behavior in the unilateral 6-hydroxydopamine rat model of Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Qi; Zhang, Wangming; Wang, Jinyan; Luo, Fei; Chang, Jingyu; Xu, Ruxiang

    2015-02-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate voluntary wheel running behavior in the unilateral 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) rat model. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were assigned to 2 groups : 6-OHDA group (n=17) and control group (n=8). The unilateral 6-OHDA rat model was induced by injection of 6-OHDA into unilateral medial forebrain bundle using a stereotaxic instrument. Voluntary wheel running activity was assessed per day in successfully lesioned rats (n=10) and control rats. Each behavioral test lasted an hour. The following parameters were investigated during behavioral tests : the number of running bouts, the distance moved in the wheel, average peak speed in running bouts and average duration from the running start to the peak speed. The number of running bouts and the distance moved in the wheel were significantly decreased in successfully lesioned rats compared with control rats. In addition, average peak speed in running bouts was decreased, and average duration from the running start to the peak speed was increased in lesioned animals, which might indicate motor deficits in these rats. These behavioral changes were still observed 42 days after lesion. Voluntary wheel running behavior is impaired in the unilateral 6-OHDA rat model and may represent a useful tool to quantify motor deficits in this model.

  1. Fast Running Urban Dispersion Model for Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) Releases: Model Description and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gowardhan, Akshay [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Neuscamman, Stephanie [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Donetti, John [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Walker, Hoyt [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Belles, Rich [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Eme, Bill [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Homann, Steven [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Simpson, Matthew [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC); Nasstrom, John [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC)

    2017-05-24

    Aeolus is an efficient three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics code based on finite volume method developed for predicting transport and dispersion of contaminants in a complex urban area. It solves the time dependent incompressible Navier-Stokes equation on a regular Cartesian staggered grid using a fractional step method. It also solves a scalar transport equation for temperature and using the Boussinesq approximation. The model also includes a Lagrangian dispersion model for predicting the transport and dispersion of atmospheric contaminants. The model can be run in an efficient Reynolds Average Navier-Stokes (RANS) mode with a run time of several minutes, or a more detailed Large Eddy Simulation (LES) mode with run time of hours for a typical simulation. This report describes the model components, including details on the physics models used in the code, as well as several model validation efforts. Aeolus wind and dispersion predictions are compared to field data from the Joint Urban Field Trials 2003 conducted in Oklahoma City (Allwine et al 2004) including both continuous and instantaneous releases. Newly implemented Aeolus capabilities include a decay chain model and an explosive Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) source term; these capabilities are described. Aeolus predictions using the buoyant explosive RDD source are validated against two experimental data sets: the Green Field explosive cloud rise experiments conducted in Israel (Sharon et al 2012) and the Full-Scale RDD Field Trials conducted in Canada (Green et al 2016).

  2. Modeling for pollution dispersion and air quality. 3.: meteorological data and emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertagna, Silvia

    2005-01-01

    To better and correctly choose the suitable modeling system to use, it is necessary previously to define with objective criteria the characteristic of the problem to be studied and to gather together a great amount of input data and information, needed by the model, regarding, namely, the meteorological diffusive conditions of the atmosphere, the characteristic of the emission source (type, number, site etc.) and the characteristic of the area of interest (as land use and orography). In this work, the main different typologies of input data, which occur to simulate the air pollutant dispersion, are described, together with the instruments to obtain them: they include the consultation and the elaboration of information coming from databases and inventories appositely built and often also the use of other models or dedicated SW programs [it

  3. Modeling the Frequency of Cyclists’ Red-Light Running Behavior Using Bayesian PG Model and PLN Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yao Wu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Red-light running behaviors of bicycles at signalized intersection lead to a large number of traffic conflicts and high collision potentials. The primary objective of this study is to model the cyclists’ red-light running frequency within the framework of Bayesian statistics. Data was collected at twenty-five approaches at seventeen signalized intersections. The Poisson-gamma (PG and Poisson-lognormal (PLN model were developed and compared. The models were validated using Bayesian p values based on posterior predictive checking indicators. It was found that the two models have a good fit of the observed cyclists’ red-light running frequency. Furthermore, the PLN model outperformed the PG model. The model estimated results showed that the amount of cyclists’ red-light running is significantly influenced by bicycle flow, conflict traffic flow, pedestrian signal type, vehicle speed, and e-bike rate. The validation result demonstrated the reliability of the PLN model. The research results can help transportation professionals to predict the expected amount of the cyclists’ red-light running and develop effective guidelines or policies to reduce red-light running frequency of bicycles at signalized intersections.

  4. Performance of the meteorological radiation model during the solar eclipse of 29 March 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. E. Psiloglou

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Various solar broadband models have been developed in the last half of the 20th century. The driving demand has been the estimation of available solar energy at different locations on earth for various applications. The motivation for such developments, though, has been the ample lack of solar radiation measurements at global scale. Therefore, the main goal of such codes is to generate artificial solar radiation series or calculate the availability of solar energy at a place.

    One of the broadband models to be developed in the late 80's was the Meteorological Radiation Model (MRM. The main advantage of MRM over other similar models was its simplicity in acquiring and using the necessary input data, i.e. air temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure and sunshine duration from any of the many meteorological stations.

    The present study describes briefly the various steps (versions of MRM and in greater detail the latest version 5. To show the flexibility and great performance of the MRM, a harsh test of the code under the (almost total solar eclipse conditions of 29 March 2006 over Athens was performed and comparison of its results with real measurements was made. From this hard comparison it is shown that the MRM can simulate solar radiation during a solar eclipse event as effectively as on a typical day. Because of the main interest in solar energy applications about the total radiation component, MRM focuses on that. For this component, the RMSE and MBE statistical estimators during this study were found to be 7.64% and −1.67% on 29 March as compared to the respective 5.30% and +2.04% for 28 March. This efficiency of MRM even during an eclipse makes the model promising for easy handling of typical situations with even better results.

  5. Description of the University of Auckland Global Mars Mesoscale Meteorological Model (GM4)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, D. R.; Austin, G. L.

    2005-08-01

    The University of Auckland Global Mars Mesoscale Meteorological Model (GM4) is a numerical weather prediction model of the Martian atmosphere that has been developed through the conversion of the Penn State University / National Center for Atmospheric Research fifth generation mesoscale model (MM5). The global aspect of this model is self consistent, overlapping, and forms a continuous domain around the entire planet, removing the need to provide boundary conditions other than at initialisation, yielding independence from the constraint of a Mars general circulation model. The brief overview of the model will be given, outlining the key physical processes and setup of the model. Comparison between data collected from Mars Pathfinder during its 1997 mission and simulated conditions using GM4 have been performed. Diurnal temperature variation as predicted by the model shows very good correspondence with the surface truth data, to within 5 K for the majority of the diurnal cycle. Mars Viking Data is also compared with the model, with good agreement. As a further means of validation for the model, various seasonal comparisons of surface and vertical atmospheric structure are conducted with the European Space Agency AOPP/LMD Mars Climate Database. Selected simulations over regions of interest will also be presented.

  6. Meteorology, Macrophysics, Microphysics, Microwaves, and Mesoscale Modeling of Mediterranean Mountain Storms: The M8 Laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starr, David O. (Technical Monitor); Smith, Eric A.

    2002-01-01

    Comprehensive understanding of the microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms can be accomplished by a combination of in situ meteorological data analysis and radar-passive microwave data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales, from synoptic scale down through the mesoscale, the cloud macrophysical scale, and ultimately the cloud microphysical scale. The microphysical properties of and their controls on severe storms are intrinsically related to meteorological processes under which storms have evolved, processes which eventually select and control the dominant microphysical properties themselves. This involves intense convective development, stratiform decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes, as well as the associated vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that affect details of the size distributions and fall rates of the various types of hydrometeors found within the storm environment. Insofar as hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted in this study by three mountain storms producing damaging floods in northern Italy between 1992 and 2000, developing a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution and the heterogeneous nature of precipitation fields within a storm domain. This involves convective development, stratiform transition and decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes. This also involves vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that determine details of the liquid/ice water contents, size disi:ributions, and fall rates of the various modes of hydrometeors found within hazardous storm environments.

  7. Modeling Occurrence of Urban Mosquitos Based on Land Use Types and Meteorological Factors in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong-Su Kwon

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Mosquitoes are a public health concern because they are vectors of pathogen, which cause human-related diseases. It is well known that the occurrence of mosquitoes is highly influenced by meteorological conditions (e.g., temperature and precipitation and land use, but there are insufficient studies quantifying their impacts. Therefore, three analytical methods were applied to determine the relationships between urban mosquito occurrence, land use type, and meteorological factors: cluster analysis based on land use types; principal component analysis (PCA based on mosquito occurrence; and three prediction models, support vector machine (SVM, classification and regression tree (CART, and random forest (RF. We used mosquito data collected at 12 sites from 2011 to 2012. Mosquito abundance was highest from August to September in both years. The monitoring sites were differentiated into three clusters based on differences in land use type such as culture and sport areas, inland water, artificial grasslands, and traffic areas. These clusters were well reflected in PCA ordinations, indicating that mosquito occurrence was highly influenced by land use types. Lastly, the RF represented the highest predictive power for mosquito occurrence and temperature-related factors were the most influential. Our study will contribute to effective control and management of mosquito occurrences.

  8. An innovative land use regression model incorporating meteorology for exposure analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jason G; Brauer, Michael; Ainslie, Bruce; Steyn, Douw; Larson, Timothy; Buzzelli, Michael

    2008-02-15

    The advent of spatial analysis and geographic information systems (GIS) has led to studies of chronic exposure and health effects based on the rationale that intra-urban variations in ambient air pollution concentrations are as great as inter-urban differences. Such studies typically rely on local spatial covariates (e.g., traffic, land use type) derived from circular areas (buffers) to predict concentrations/exposures at receptor sites, as a means of averaging the annual net effect of meteorological influences (i.e., wind speed, wind direction and insolation). This is the approach taken in the now popular land use regression (LUR) method. However spatial studies of chronic exposures and temporal studies of acute exposures have not been adequately integrated. This paper presents an innovative LUR method implemented in a GIS environment that reflects both temporal and spatial variability and considers the role of meteorology. The new source area LUR integrates wind speed, wind direction and cloud cover/insolation to estimate hourly nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) concentrations from land use types (i.e., road network, commercial land use) and these concentrations are then used as covariates to regress against NO and NO(2) measurements at various receptor sites across the Vancouver region and compared directly with estimates from a regular LUR. The results show that, when variability in seasonal concentration measurements is present, the source area LUR or SA-LUR model is a better option for concentration estimation.

  9. Evaluation of the meteorological forcing used for the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) air quality simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vautard, R.; Moran, M.D.; Solazzo, E.; Gilliam, R.C.; Matthias, V.; Bianconi, R.; Chemel, C.; Ferreira, J.; Geyer, B.; Hansen, A.B.; Jericevic, A.; Prank, M.; Segers, A.; Silver, J.D.; Werhahn, J.; Wolke, R.; Rao, S.T.; Galmarini, S.

    2012-01-01

    Accurate regional air pollution simulation relies strongly on the accuracy of the mesoscale meteorological simulation used to drive the air quality model. The framework of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII), which involved a large international community of modeling

  10. Evaluation of the meteorological forcing used the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) air quality simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Segers, A.J.; Vautard, R.; Moran, M.D.; Solazzo, E.; Gilliam, R.C.; Matthias, V.; Bianconi, R.; Chemel, C.; Ferreira, J.; Geyer, B.; Hansen, A.B.; Jericevic, A.; Prank, M.; Silver, J.D.; Werhahn, J.; Wolke, R.; Rao, S.T.; Galmarini, S.

    2011-01-01

    Accurate regional air pollution simulation relies strongly on the accuracy of the mesoscale meteorological simulation used to drive the air quality model. The framework of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII), which involved a large international community of modeling

  11. The first mathematical models of dynamic meteorology: The Berlin prize contest of 1746

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Egger, J.; Pelkowski, J. [Muenchen Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.

    2008-02-15

    The first models of dynamic meteorology were published in 1747 as a result of a prize contest of the Academy of Prussia. The topic of the contest concerned the determination of the winds 'if the Earth were surrounded everywhere by an ocean'. D'Alembert formulated a shallow water model for the first time in his prize-winning contribution and attempted to calculate tidal motions within the fluid layers. Daniel Bernoulli viewed the atmosphere as a boundary layer wherein the winds rotating with the earth at low elevations have to adjust their motion to a solar atmosphere at large heights. He is first in applying the principle of angular momentum conservation in continuum geophysics when calculating the zonal wind profile. An account of the historical background of the contest is given, as well as some later reactions to d'Alembert's solution. (orig.)

  12. Comparison of surface meteorological data representativeness for the Weldon Spring transport and dispersion modeling analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazaro, M.

    1989-06-01

    The US Department of Energy is conducting the Weldon Spring Site Remedial Action Project under the Surplus Facilities Management Program (SFMP). The major goals of the SFMP are to eliminate potential hazards to the public and the environment that associated with contamination at SFMP sites and to make surplus property available for other uses to the extent possible. This report presents the results of analysis of available meteorological data from stations near the Weldon Spring site. Data that are most representative of site conditions are needed to accurately model the transport and dispersion of air pollutants associated with remedial activities. Such modeling will assist the development of mitigative measures. 17 refs., 12 figs., 6 tabs

  13. Utilization of mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC as a meteorological forecast model in nuclear emergency response system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Haruyasu; Yamazawa, Hiromi

    1997-01-01

    It is advantageous for an emergency response system to have a forecast function to provide a time margin for countermeasures in case of a nuclear accident. We propose to apply an atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC (Prognostic HYdroStatic model Including turbulence Closure model) as a meteorological forecast model in the emergency system. The model uses GPV data which are the output of the numerical weather forecast model of Japan Meteorological Agency as the initial and boundary conditions. The roles of PHYSIC are the interface between GPV data and the emergency response system and the forecast of local atmospheric phenomena within the model domain. This paper presents a scheme to use PHYSIC to forecast local wind and its performance. Horizontal grid number of PHYSIC is fixed to 50 x 50, whereas the mesh and domain sizes are determined in consideration of topography causing local winds at an objective area. The model performance was examined for the introduction of GPV data through initial and boundary conditions and the predictability of local wind field and atmospheric stability. The model performance was on an acceptable level as the forecast model. It was also recognized that improvement of cloud calculation was necessary in simulating atmospheric stability. (author)

  14. Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Tai, A. P. K.; Fiore, A. M.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50

  15. Two-Higgs-doublet model of type II confronted with the LHC run I and run II data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Zhang, Feng; Han, Xiao-Fang

    2017-06-01

    We examine the parameter space of the two-Higgs-doublet model of type II after imposing the relevant theoretical and experimental constraints from the precision electroweak data, B -meson decays, and the LHC run I and run II data. We find that the searches for Higgs bosons via the τ+τ- , W W , Z Z , γ γ , h h , h Z , H Z , and A Z channels can give strong constraints on the C P -odd Higgs A and heavy C P -even Higgs H , and the parameter space excluded by each channel is respectively carved out in detail assuming that either mA or mH are fixed to 600 or 700 GeV in the scans. The surviving samples are discussed in two different regions. (i) In the standard model-like coupling region of the 125 GeV Higgs, mA is allowed to be as low as 350 GeV, and a strong upper limit is imposed on tan β . mH is allowed to be as low as 200 GeV for the appropriate values of tan β , sin (β -α ), and mA, but is required to be larger than 300 GeV for mA=700 GeV . (ii) In the wrong-sign Yukawa coupling region of the 125 GeV Higgs, the b b ¯→A /H →τ+τ- channel can impose the upper limits on tan β and sin (β -α ), and the A →h Z channel can give the lower limits on tan β and sin (β -α ). mA and mH are allowed to be as low as 60 and 200 GeV, respectively, but 320 GeV

  16. [Prediction model of meteorological grade of wheat stripe rust in winter-reproductive area, Sichuan Basin, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiang; Wang, Ming Tian; Zhang, Guo Zhi

    2017-12-01

    The winter reproductive areas of Puccinia striiformis var. striiformis in Sichuan Basin are often the places mostly affected by wheat stripe rust. With data on the meteorological condition and stripe rust situation at typical stations in the winter reproductive area in Sichuan Basin from 1999 to 2016, this paper classified the meteorological conditions inducing wheat stripe rust into 5 grades, based on the incidence area ratio of the disease. The meteorological factors which were biologically related to wheat stripe rust were determined through multiple analytical methods, and a meteorological grade model for forecasting wheat stripe rust was created. The result showed that wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Basin was significantly correlated with many meteorological factors, such as the ave-rage (maximum and minimum) temperature, precipitation and its anomaly percentage, relative humidity and its anomaly percentage, average wind speed and sunshine duration. Among these, the average temperature and the anomaly percentage of relative humidity were the determining factors. According to a historical retrospective test, the accuracy of the forecast based on the model was 64% for samples in the county-level test, and 89% for samples in the municipal-level test. In a meteorological grade forecast of wheat stripe rust in the winter reproductive areas in Sichuan Basin in 2017, the prediction was accurate for 62.8% of the samples, with 27.9% error by one grade and only 9.3% error by two or more grades. As a result, the model could deliver satisfactory forecast results, and predicate future wheat stripe rust from a meteorological point of view.

  17. Model based control for run-of-river system. Part 1: Model implementation and tuning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liubomyr Vytvytskyi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Optimal operation and control of a run-of-river hydro power plant depends on good knowledge of the elements of the plant in the form of models. River reaches are often considered shallow channels with free surfaces. A typical model for such reaches use the Saint Venant model, which is a 1D distributed model based on the mass and momentum balances. This combination of free surface and momentum balance makes the problem numerically challenging to solve. The finite volume method with staggered grid was compared with the Kurganov-Petrova central upwind scheme, and was used to illustrate the dynamics of the river upstream from the Grønvollfoss run-of-river power plant in Telemark, Norway, operated by Skagerak Energi AS. In an experiment on the Grønvollfoss run-of-river power plant, a step was injected in the upstream inlet flow at Årlifoss, and the resulting change in level in front of the dam at the Grønvollfoss plant was logged. The results from the theoretical Saint Venant model was then compared to the experimental results. Because of uncertainties in the geometry of the river reach (river bed slope, etc., the slope and length of the varying slope parts were tuned manually to improve the fit. Then, friction factor, river width and height drop of the river was tuned by minimizing a least squares criterion. The results of the improved model (numerically, tuned to experiments, is a model that can be further used for control synthesis and analysis.

  18. The trajectory model tranco as applied to the Chernobyl accident using E.C.M.W.F. meteorological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarimpas, N.

    1989-01-01

    This report presents the TRANCO (trajectory analysis) code and discusses its application to model atmospheric transport during and after the Chernobyl accident. The archived-processed meteorological information from the ECMWF, which is used for the purposes of this study, is also described. Finally, results are discussed and compared with those produced by similar models

  19. Meso- and Micro-scale Modelling in China: Wind atlas analysis for 12 meteorological stations in NE China (Dongbei)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Gylling; Yang, Z.; Hansen, Jens Carsten

    As part of the “Meso-Scale and Micro-Scale Modelling in China” project, also known as the CMA component of the Sino-Danish Wind Energy Development Programme (WED), microscale modelling and analyses have been carried out for 12 meteorological stations in NE China. Wind speed and direction data from...

  20. Shade material evaluation using a cattle response model and meteorological instrumentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eigenberg, Roger A; Brown-Brandl, Tami M; Nienaber, John A

    2010-11-01

    Shade structures are often considered as one method of reducing stress in feedlot cattle. Selection of a suitable shade material can be difficult without data that quantify material effectiveness for stress reduction. A summer study was conducted during 2007 using instrumented shade structures in conjunction with meteorological measurements to estimate relative effectiveness of various shade materials. Shade structures were 3.6 m by 6.0 m by 3.0 m high at the peak and 2.0 m high at the sides. Polyethylene shade cloth was used in three of the comparisons and consisted of effective coverings of 100%, 60% with a silver reflective coating, and 60% black material with no reflective coating. Additionally, one of the structures was fitted with a poly snow fence with an effective shade of about 30%. Each shade structure contained a solar radiation meter and a black globe thermometer to measure radiant energy received under the shade material. Additionally, meteorological data were collected as a non-shaded treatment and included temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation. Data analyses was conducted using a physiological model based on temperature, humidity, solar radiation and wind speed; a second model using black globe temperatures, relative humidity, and wind speed was used as well. Analyses of the data revealed that time spent in the highest stress category was reduced by all shade materials. Moreover, significant differences (P < 0.05) existed between all shade materials (compared to no-shade) for hourly summaries during peak daylight hours and for 'full sun' days.

  1. The American Meteorological Society Education Program Model for Climate Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinbeck, R. S.; Moran, J. M.; Geer, I. W.; Hopkins, E. J.

    2007-12-01

    A guiding principle of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Education Program is that public scientific literacy is most effectively achieved through systemic change in the classroom. The AMS, partnering with NOAA, NSF, NASA, the US Navy, and SUNY Brockport, aims for greater public scientific literacy through its successful distance learning programs that convey to pre-college teachers and undergraduates the fundamentals of meteorology, oceanography, and hydrology. The AMS DataStreme teacher-enhancement courses (Atmosphere, Water in the Earth System, and Ocean) have changed the way thousands of pre-college teachers teach and hundreds of thousands of students learn. Furthermore, teachers trained in this program are positioned to contribute to local and statewide curriculum reform. The AMS Online Weather Studies and Online Ocean Studies courses are providing tens of thousands of college undergraduates with engaging and highly motivational learning experiences. DataStreme courses are offered locally and feature mentoring of teacher participants whereas Online undergraduate courses are licensed by AMS for offering by colleges and universities. Integrated components of the AMS model are course website, investigations manual, and customized textbook. A portion of twice-weekly investigations is written to a near real-time situation and posted on the course website. Through its extensive experience with the DataStreme/Online programs, the AMS Education Program is now uniquely poised to assume a national leadership role in climate education by applying its proven teaching/learning model to climate education at the pre-college and undergraduate levels. The AMS model is ideally suited for delivering to teachers and students nationwide the basic understandings and enduring ideas of climate science and the role of the individual and society in climate variability and change. The AMS teaching/learning model incorporates an Earth system perspective, is problem focused, and

  2. Flood Peak Estimation Using Rainfall Run off Models | Matondo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The design of hydraulic structures such as road culverts, road bridges and dam spillways requires the determination of the design food peak. Two approaches are available in the determination of the design flood peak and these are: flood frequency analysis and rainfall runoff models. Flood frequency analysis requires a ...

  3. Grid-based Meteorological and Crisis Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hluchy, Ladislav; Bartok, Juraj; Tran, Viet; Lucny, Andrej; Gazak, Martin

    2010-05-01

    We present several applications from domain of meteorology and crisis management we developed and/or plan to develop. Particularly, we present IMS Model Suite - a complex software system designed to address the needs of accurate forecast of weather and hazardous weather phenomena, environmental pollution assessment, prediction of consequences of nuclear accident and radiological emergency. We discuss requirements on computational means and our experiences how to meet them by grid computing. The process of a pollution assessment and prediction of the consequences in case of radiological emergence results in complex data-flows and work-flows among databases, models and simulation tools (geographical databases, meteorological and dispersion models, etc.). A pollution assessment and prediction requires running of 3D meteorological model (4 nests with resolution from 50 km to 1.8 km centered on nuclear power plant site, 38 vertical levels) as well as running of the dispersion model performing the simulation of the release transport and deposition of the pollutant with respect to the numeric weather prediction data, released material description, topography, land use description and user defined simulation scenario. Several post-processing options can be selected according to particular situation (e.g. doses calculation). Another example is a forecasting of fog as one of the meteorological phenomena hazardous to the aviation as well as road traffic. It requires complicated physical model and high resolution meteorological modeling due to its dependence on local conditions (precise topography, shorelines and land use classes). An installed fog modeling system requires a 4 time nested parallelized 3D meteorological model with 1.8 km horizontal resolution and 42 levels vertically (approx. 1 million points in 3D space) to be run four times daily. The 3D model outputs and multitude of local measurements are utilized by SPMD-parallelized 1D fog model run every hour. The fog

  4. A long run intertemporal model of the oil market with uncertainty and strategic interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lensberg, T.; Rasmussen, H.

    1991-06-01

    This paper describes a model of the long run price uncertainty in the oil market. The main feature of the model is that the uncertainty about OPEC's price strategy is assumed to be generated not by irrational behavior on the part of OPEC, but by uncertainty about OPEC's size and time preference. The control of OPEC's pricing decision is assumed to shift among a set of OPEC-types over time according to a stochastic process, with each type implementing that price strategy which best fits the interests of its supporters. The model is fully dynamic on the supply side in the sense that all oil producers are assumed to understand the working of OPEC and the oil market, in particular, the non-OPEC producers base their investment decisions on rational price expectations. On the demand side, we assume that the market insight is less developed on the average, and model it by means of a long run demand curve on current prices and a simple lag structure. The long run demand curve for crude oil is generated by a fairly detailed static long-run equilibrium model of the product markets. Preliminary experience with the model indicate that prices are likely to stay below 20 dollars in the foreseeable future, but that prices around 30 dollars may occur if the present long run time perspective of OPEC is abandoned in favor of a more short run one. 26 refs., 4 figs., 7 tabs

  5. Application of a mesoscale forecasting model (NMM) coupled to the CALMET to develop forecast meteorology to use with the CALPUFF air dispersion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radonjic, Z.; Telenta, B.; Kirklady, J.; Chambers, D.; Kleb, H.

    2006-01-01

    An air quality assessment was undertaken as part of the Environmental Assessment for the Port Hope Area Initiative. The assessment predicted potential effects associated with the remediation efforts for historic low-level radioactive wastes and construction of Long-Term Waste Management Facilities (LTWMFs) for both the Port Hope and Port Granby Projects. A necessary element of air dispersion modelling is the development of suitable meteorological data. For the Port Hope and Port Granby Projects, a meteorological station was installed in close proximity to the location of the recommended LTWMF in Port Hope. The recommended location for the Port Granby LTWMF is approximately 10 km west of the Port Hope LTWMF. Concerns were raised regarding the applicability of data collected for the Port Hope meteorological station to the Port Granby Site. To address this concern, a new method for processing meteorological data, which coupled mesoscale meteorological forecasting data the U.S. EPA CALMET meteorological data processor, was applied. This methodology is possible because a new and advanced mesoscale forecasting modelling system enables extensive numerical calculations on personal computers. As a result of this advancement, mesoscale forecasting systems can now be coupled with the CALMET meteorological data processor and the CALPUFF air dispersion modelling system to facilitate wind field estimations and air dispersion analysis. (author)

  6. Implementation of the ATLAS Run 2 event data model

    CERN Document Server

    Buckley, Andrew; Elsing, Markus; Gillberg, Dag Ingemar; Koeneke, Karsten; Krasznahorkay, Attila; Moyse, Edward; Nowak, Marcin; Snyder, Scott; van Gemmeren, Peter

    2015-01-01

    During the 2013--2014 shutdown of the Large Hadron Collider, ATLAS switched to a new event data model for analysis, called the xAOD. A key feature of this model is the separation of the object data from the objects themselves (the `auxiliary store'). Rather being stored as member variables of the analysis classes, all object data are stored separately, as vectors of simple values. Thus, the data are stored in a `structure of arrays' format, while the user still can access it as an `array of structures'. This organization allows for on-demand partial reading of objects, the selective removal of object properties, and the addition of arbitrary user-defined properties in a uniform manner. It also improves performance by increasing the locality of memory references in typical analysis code. The resulting data structures can be written to ROOT files with data properties represented as simple ROOT tree branches. This talk will focus on the design and implementation of the auxiliary store and its interaction with RO...

  7. Implementation of the ATLAS Run 2 event data model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, A.; Eifert, T.; Elsing, M.; Gillberg, D.; Koeneke, K.; Krasznahorkay, A.; Moyse, E.; Nowak, M.; Snyder, S.; van Gemmeren, P.

    2015-12-01

    During the 2013-2014 shutdown of the Large Hadron Collider, ATLAS switched to a new event data model for analysis, called the xAOD. A key feature of this model is the separation of the object data from the objects themselves (the ‘auxiliary store’). Rather than being stored as member variables of the analysis classes, all object data are stored separately, as vectors of simple values. Thus, the data are stored in a ‘structure of arrays’ format, while the user still can access it as an ‘array of structures’. This organization allows for on-demand partial reading of objects, the selective removal of object properties, and the addition of arbitrary user- defined properties in a uniform manner. It also improves performance by increasing the locality of memory references in typical analysis code. The resulting data structures can be written to ROOT files with data properties represented as simple ROOT tree branches. This paper focuses on the design and implementation of the auxiliary store and its interaction with ROOT.

  8. Artificial neural network models of relationships between Alternaria spores and meteorological factors in Szczecin (Poland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinn-Gofroń, Agnieszka; Strzelczak, Agnieszka

    2008-11-01

    Alternaria is an airborne fungal spore type known to trigger respiratory allergy symptoms in sensitive patients. Aiming to reduce the risk for allergic individuals, we constructed predictive models for the fungal spore circulation in Szczecin, Poland. Monthly forecasting models were developed for the airborne spore concentrations of Alternaria, which is one of the most abundant fungal taxa in the area. Aerobiological sampling was conducted over 2004-2007, using a Lanzoni trap. Simultaneously, the following meteorological parameters were recorded: daily level of precipitation; maximum and average wind speed; relative humidity; and maximum, minimum, average, and dew point temperature. The original factors as well as with lags (up to 3 days) were used as the explaining variables. Due to non-linearity and non-normality of the data set, the modelling technique applied was the artificial neural network (ANN) method. The final model was a split model with classification (spore presence or absence) followed by regression for spore seasons and log(x+1) transformed Alternaria spore concentration. All variables except maximum wind speed and precipitation were important factors in the overall classification model. In the regression model for spore seasons, close relationships were noted between Alternaria spore concentration and average and maximum temperature (on the same day and 3 days previously), humidity (with lag 1) and maximum wind speed 2 days previously. The most important variable was humidity recorded on the same day. Our study illustrates a novel approach to modelling of time series with short spore seasons, and indicates that the ANN method provides the possibility of forecasting Alternaria spore concentration with high accuracy.

  9. Meteorological predictions for Mars 2020 Exploration Rover high-priority landing sites throug MRAMS Mesoscale Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pla-García, Jorge; Rafkin, Scot C. R.

    2015-04-01

    The Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) is used to predict meteorological conditions that are likely to be encountered by the Mars 2020 Exploration Rover at several proposed landing sites during entry, descent, and landing (EDL). The meteorology during the EDL window at most of the sites is dynamic. The intense heating of the lower atmosphere drives intense thermals and mesoscale thermal circulations. Moderate mean winds, wind shear, turbulence, and vertical air currents associated with convection are present and potentially hazardous to EDL [1]. Nine areas with specific high-priority landing ellipses of the 2020 Rover, are investigated: NE Syrtis, Nili Fossae, Nili Fossae Carbonates, Jezero Crater Delta, Holden Crater, McLaughlin Crater, Southwest Melas Basin, Mawrth Vallis and East Margaritifer Chloride. MRAMS was applied to the landing site regions using nested grids with a spacing of 330 meters on the innermost grid that is centered over each landing site. MRAMS is ideally suited for this investigation; the model is explicitly designed to simulate Mars' atmospheric thermal circulations at the mesoscale and smaller with realistic, high-resolution surface properties [2, 3]. Horizontal wind speeds, both vertical profiles and vertical cross-sections wind speeds, are studied. For some landing sites simulations, two example configurations -including and not including Hellas basin in the mother domain- were generated, in order to study how the basin affects the innermost grids circulations. Afternoon circulations at all sites pose some risk entry, descent, and landing. Most of the atmospheric hazards are not evident in current observational data and general circulation model simulations and can only be ascertained through mesoscale modeling of the region. Decide where to go first and then design a system that can tolerate the environment would greatly minimize risk. References: [1] Rafkin, S. C. R., and T. I. Michaels (2003), J. Geophys. Res., 108(E12

  10. mr. A C++ library for the matching and running of the Standard Model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kniehl, Bernd A.; Veretin, Oleg L.; Pikelner, Andrey F.; Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Dubna

    2016-01-01

    We present the C++ program library mr that allows us to reliably calculate the values of the running parameters in the Standard Model at high energy scales. The initial conditions are obtained by relating the running parameters in the MS renormalization scheme to observables at lower energies with full two-loop precision. The evolution is then performed in accordance with the renormalization group equations with full three-loop precision. Pure QCD corrections to the matching and running are included through four loops. We also provide a Mathematica interface for this program library.

  11. A molten salt tower model used for site selection in South Africa using SAURAN meteorological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poole, Ian Vincent; Dinter, Frank

    2017-06-01

    South Africa has become a hotspot for concentrating solar power (CSP) development in recent years. With an abundance of solar resource and an existing governmental framework for renewable energy development, the country has captured the attention of CSP developers worldwide. The primary limitations for CSP plants in South Africa are electrical transmission and water availability. While taking into account such infrastructure limitations, six sites were proposed. A purpose-built simulation model for a proposed 100 MWe (gross) tower plant with 12 hours of storage was developed. Using site South African Universities Radiometric Network (SAURAN) meteorological data with a resolution of up to 1 minute, each of the sites was evaluated in terms of electrical yield using the model. The investigation found that the site situated in Springbok will generate 450.8 GWhe per annum, and is the most advantageous site for the modeled plant. The most promising alternative site is situated in near Laingsburg in the Western Province. This site offered 413.7 GWhe per annum, and it is close to available transmission and surface water.

  12. Dynamic sensitivity analysis of long running landslide models through basis set expansion and meta-modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohmer, Jeremy

    2016-04-01

    Predicting the temporal evolution of landslides is typically supported by numerical modelling. Dynamic sensitivity analysis aims at assessing the influence of the landslide properties on the time-dependent predictions (e.g., time series of landslide displacements). Yet two major difficulties arise: 1. Global sensitivity analysis require running the landslide model a high number of times (> 1000), which may become impracticable when the landslide model has a high computation time cost (> several hours); 2. Landslide model outputs are not scalar, but function of time, i.e. they are n-dimensional vectors with n usually ranging from 100 to 1000. In this article, I explore the use of a basis set expansion, such as principal component analysis, to reduce the output dimensionality to a few components, each of them being interpreted as a dominant mode of variation in the overall structure of the temporal evolution. The computationally intensive calculation of the Sobol' indices for each of these components are then achieved through meta-modelling, i.e. by replacing the landslide model by a "costless-to-evaluate" approximation (e.g., a projection pursuit regression model). The methodology combining "basis set expansion - meta-model - Sobol' indices" is then applied to the La Frasse landslide to investigate the dynamic sensitivity analysis of the surface horizontal displacements to the slip surface properties during the pore pressure changes. I show how to extract information on the sensitivity of each main modes of temporal behaviour using a limited number (a few tens) of long running simulations. In particular, I identify the parameters, which trigger the occurrence of a turning point marking a shift between a regime of low values of landslide displacements and one of high values.

  13. Performance assessment of retrospective meteorological inputs for use in air quality modeling during TexAQS 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngan, Fong; Byun, Daewon; Kim, Hyuncheol; Lee, Daegyun; Rappenglück, Bernhard; Pour-Biazar, Arastoo

    2012-07-01

    To achieve more accurate meteorological inputs than was used in the daily forecast for studying the TexAQS 2006 air quality, retrospective simulations were conducted using objective analysis and 3D/surface analysis nudging with surface and upper observations. Model ozone using the assimilated meteorological fields with improved wind fields shows better agreement with the observation compared to the forecasting results. In the post-frontal conditions, important factors for ozone modeling in terms of wind patterns are the weak easterlies in the morning for bringing in industrial emissions to the city and the subsequent clockwise turning of the wind direction induced by the Coriolis force superimposing the sea breeze, which keeps pollutants in the urban area. Objective analysis and nudging employed in the retrospective simulation minimize the wind bias but are not able to compensate for the general flow pattern biases inherited from large scale inputs. By using an alternative analyses data for initializing the meteorological simulation, the model can re-produce the flow pattern and generate the ozone peak location closer to the reality. The inaccurate simulation of precipitation and cloudiness cause over-prediction of ozone occasionally. Since there are limitations in the meteorological model to simulate precipitation and cloudiness in the fine scale domain (less than 4-km grid), the satellite-based cloud is an alternative way to provide necessary inputs for the retrospective study of air quality.

  14. Modeling and roles of meteorological factors in outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paritosh K Biswas

    Full Text Available The highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H5N1 (HPAI H5N1 is a deadly zoonotic pathogen. Its persistence in poultry in several countries is a potential threat: a mutant or genetically reassorted progenitor might cause a human pandemic. Its world-wide eradication from poultry is important to protect public health. The global trend of outbreaks of influenza attributable to HPAI H5N1 shows a clear seasonality. Meteorological factors might be associated with such trend but have not been studied. For the first time, we analyze the role of meteorological factors in the occurrences of HPAI outbreaks in Bangladesh. We employed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA and multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA to assess the roles of different meteorological factors in outbreaks of HPAI. Outbreaks were modeled best when multiplicative seasonality was incorporated. Incorporation of any meteorological variable(s as inputs did not improve the performance of any multivariable models, but relative humidity (RH was a significant covariate in several ARIMA and SARIMA models with different autoregressive and moving average orders. The variable cloud cover was also a significant covariate in two SARIMA models, but air temperature along with RH might be a predictor when moving average (MA order at lag 1 month is considered.

  15. Influence of running velocity on vertical, leg and joint stiffness : modelling and recommendations for future research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brughelli, Matt; Cronin, John

    2008-01-01

    Human running can be modelled as either a spring-mass model or multiple springs in series. A force is required to stretch or compress the spring, and thus stiffness, the variable of interest in this paper, can be calculated from the ratio of this force to the change in spring length. Given the link between force and length change, muscle stiffness and mechanical stiffness have been areas of interest to researchers, clinicians, and strength and conditioning practitioners for many years. This review focuses on mechanical stiffness, and in particular, vertical, leg and joint stiffness, since these are the only stiffness types that have been directly calculated during human running. It has been established that as running velocity increases from slow-to-moderate values, leg stiffness remains constant while both vertical stiffness and joint stiffness increase. However, no studies have calculated vertical, leg or joint stiffness over a range of slow-to-moderate values to maximum values in an athletic population. Therefore, the effects of faster running velocities on stiffness are relatively unexplored. Furthermore, no experimental research has examined the effects of training on vertical, leg or joint stiffness and the subsequent effects on running performance. Various methods of training (Olympic style weightlifting, heavy resistance training, plyometrics, eccentric strength training) have shown to be effective at improving running performance. However, the effects of these training methods on vertical, leg and joint stiffness are unknown. As a result, the true importance of stiffness to running performance remains unexplored, and the best practice for changing stiffness to optimize running performance is speculative at best. It is our hope that a better understanding of stiffness, and the influence of running speed on stiffness, will lead to greater interest and an increase in experimental research in this area.

  16. The DACCIWA model evaluation project: representation of the meteorology of southern West Africa in state-of-the-art weather, seasonal and climate prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kniffka, Anke; Benedetti, Angela; Knippertz, Peter; Stanelle, Tanja; Brooks, Malcolm; Deetz, Konrad; Maranan, Marlon; Rosenberg, Philip; Pante, Gregor; Allan, Richard; Hill, Peter; Adler, Bianca; Fink, Andreas; Kalthoff, Norbert; Chiu, Christine; Vogel, Bernhard; Field, Paul; Marsham, John

    2017-04-01

    DACCIWA (Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa) is an EU-funded project that aims to determine the influence of anthropogenic and natural emissions on the atmospheric composition, air quality, weather and climate over southern West Africa. DACCIWA organised a major international field campaign in June-July 2016 and involves a wide range of modelling activities. Here we report about the coordinated model evaluation performed in the framework of DACCIWA focusing on meteorological fields. This activity consists of two elements: (a) the quality of numerical weather prediction during the field campaign, (b) the ability of seasonal and climate models to represent the mean state and its variability. For the first element, the extensive observations from the main field campaign in West Africa in June-July 2016 (ground supersites, radiosondes, aircraft measurements) will be combined with conventional data (synoptic stations, satellites data from various sensors) to evaluate models against. The forecasts include operational products from centres such as the ECMWF, UK MetOffice and the German Weather Service and runs specifically conducted for the planning and the post-analysis of the field campaign using higher resolutions (e.g., WRF, COSMO). The forecast and the observations are analysed in a concerted way to assess the ability of the models to represent the southern West African weather systems and secondly to provide a comprehensive synoptic overview of the state of the atmosphere. In a second step the process will be extended to long-term modelling periods. This includes both seasonal and climate models, respectively. In this case, the observational dataset contains long-term satellite observations and station data, some of which were digitised from written records in the framework of DACCIWA. Parameter choice and spatial averaging will build directly on the weather forecasting evaluation to allow an assessment of the impact of short-term errors on

  17. Different effects of meteorological factors on hand, foot and mouth disease in various climates: a spatial panel data model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chao; Cao, Kai; Zhang, Yingjie; Fang, Liqun; Li, Xia; Xu, Qin; Huang, Fangfang; Tao, Lixin; Guo, Jin; Gao, Qi; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-05-26

    Major outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) have been reported in China since 2008, posing a great threat to the health of children. Although many studies have examined the effect of meteorological variables on the incidence of HFMD, the results have been inconsistent. This study aimed to quantify the relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD occurrence in different climates of mainland China using spatial panel data models. All statistical analyses were carried out according to different climate types. We firstly conducted a descriptive analysis to summarize the epidemic characteristics of HFMD from May 2008 to November 2012 and then detected the spatial autocorrelation of HFMD using a global autocorrelation statistic (Moran's I) in each month. Finally, the association between HFMD incidence and meteorological factors was explored by spatial panel data models. The 353 regions were divided into 4 groups according to climate (G1: subtropical monsoon climate; G2: temperate monsoon climate; G3: temperate continental climate; G4: plateau mountain climate). The Moran's I values were significant with high correlations in most months of group G1 and G2 and some months of group G3 and G4. This suggested the existence of a high spatial autocorrelation with HFMD. Spatial panel data models were more appropriate to describe the data than fixed effect models. The results showed that HFMD incidences were significantly associated with average atmospheric pressure (AAP), average temperature (AT), average vapor pressure (AVP), average relative humidity (ARH), monthly precipitation (MP), average wind speed (AWS), monthly total sunshine hours (MSH), mean temperature difference (MTD), rain day (RD) and average temperature distance (ATD), but the effect of meteorological factors might differ in various climate types. Spatial panel data models are useful and effective when longitudinal data are available and spatial autocorrelation exists. Our findings showed that

  18. Characterisation of the responsive properties of two running-specific prosthetic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grobler, Lara; Ferreira, Suzanne; Vanwanseele, Benedicte; Terblanche, Elmarie E

    2017-04-01

    The need for information regarding running-specific prosthetic properties has previously been voiced. Such information is necessary to assist in athletes' prostheses selection. This study aimed to describe the characteristics of two commercially available running-specific prostheses. The running-specific prostheses were tested (in an experimental setup) without the external interference of athlete performance variations. Four stiffness categories of each running-specific prosthetic model (Xtend ™ and Xtreme ™ ) were tested at seven alignment setups and three drop masses (28, 38 and 48 kg). Results for peak ground reaction force (GRF peak ), contact time ( t c ), flight time ( t f ), reactive strength index (RSI) and maximal compression (Δ L) were determined during controlled dropping of running-specific prostheses onto a force platform with different masses attached to the experimental setup. No statistically significant differences were found between the different setups of the running-specific prostheses. Statistically significant differences were found between the two models for all outcome variables (GRF peak , Xtend > Xtreme; t c , Xtreme > Xtend; t f , Xtreme > Xtend; RSI, Xtend > Xtreme; Δ L, Xtreme > Xtend; p prosthetic choice. Physiologically and metabolically, a short sprint event (i.e. 100 m) places different demands on the athlete than a long sprint event (i.e. 400 m), and the RSP should match these performance demands.

  19. An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources Part 1: Model description and input meteorological forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.; Masuda, K.; Motoya, K.; Shirakawa, N.; Shen, Y.; Tanaka, K.

    2008-07-01

    To assess global water availability and use at a subannual timescale, an integrated global water resources model was developed consisting of six modules: land surface hydrology, river routing, crop growth, reservoir operation, environmental flow requirement estimation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The model simulates both natural and anthropogenic water flow globally (excluding Antarctica) on a daily basis at a spatial resolution of 1°×1° (longitude and latitude). This first part of the two-feature report describes the six modules and the input meteorological forcing. The input meteorological forcing was provided by the second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2), an international land surface modeling project. Several reported shortcomings of the forcing component were improved. The land surface hydrology module was developed based on a bucket type model that simulates energy and water balance on land surfaces. The crop growth module is a relatively simple model based on concepts of heat unit theory, potential biomass, and a harvest index. In the reservoir operation module, 452 major reservoirs with >1 km3 each of storage capacity store and release water according to their own rules of operation. Operating rules were determined for each reservoir by an algorithm that used currently available global data such as reservoir storage capacity, intended purposes, simulated inflow, and water demand in the lower reaches. The environmental flow requirement module was newly developed based on case studies from around the world. Simulated runoff was compared and validated with observation-based global runoff data sets and observed streamflow records at 32 major river gauging stations around the world. Mean annual runoff agreed well with earlier studies at global and continental scales, and in individual basins, the mean bias was less than ±20% in 14 of the 32 river basins and less than ±50% in 24 basins. The error in the peak was less than ±1 mo in 19 of the 27

  20. Enviro-HIRLAM online integrated meteorology-chemistry modelling system: strategy, methodology, developments and applications (v7.2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, Alexander; Smith Korsholm, Ulrik; Nuterman, Roman; Mahura, Alexander; Pagh Nielsen, Kristian; Hansen Sass, Bent; Rasmussen, Alix; Zakey, Ashraf; Kaas, Eigil; Kurganskiy, Alexander; Sørensen, Brian; González-Aparicio, Iratxe

    2017-08-01

    The Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model (Enviro-HIRLAM) is developed as a fully online integrated numerical weather prediction (NWP) and atmospheric chemical transport (ACT) model for research and forecasting of joint meteorological, chemical and biological weather. The integrated modelling system is developed by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) in collaboration with several European universities. It is the baseline system in the HIRLAM Chemical Branch and used in several countries and different applications. The development was initiated at DMI more than 15 years ago. The model is based on the HIRLAM NWP model with online integrated pollutant transport and dispersion, chemistry, aerosol dynamics, deposition and atmospheric composition feedbacks. To make the model suitable for chemical weather forecasting in urban areas, the meteorological part was improved by implementation of urban parameterisations. The dynamical core was improved by implementing a locally mass-conserving semi-Lagrangian numerical advection scheme, which improves forecast accuracy and model performance. The current version (7.2), in comparison with previous versions, has a more advanced and cost-efficient chemistry, aerosol multi-compound approach, aerosol feedbacks (direct and semi-direct) on radiation and (first and second indirect effects) on cloud microphysics. Since 2004, the Enviro-HIRLAM has been used for different studies, including operational pollen forecasting for Denmark since 2009 and operational forecasting atmospheric composition with downscaling for China since 2017. Following the main research and development strategy, further model developments will be extended towards the new NWP platform - HARMONIE. Different aspects of online coupling methodology, research strategy and possible applications of the modelling system, and fit-for-purpose model configurations for the meteorological and air quality communities are discussed.

  1. Meteorological Summaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Multi-year summaries of one or more meteorological elements at a station or in a state. Primarily includes Form 1078, a United States Weather Bureau form designed...

  2. Meteorology (OTTER)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Meteorology data collected on an hourly basis from stations located near the OTTER sites in 1990 and summarized to monthly data--see also: Canopy Chemistry (OTTER)

  3. Meteorology (OTTER)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: Meteorology data collected on an hourly basis from stations located near the OTTER sites in 1990 and summarized to monthly data--see also: Canopy Chemistry...

  4. Meteorology Online.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahl, Jonathan D. W.

    2001-01-01

    Describes an activity to learn about meteorology and weather using the internet. Discusses the National Weather Service (NWS) internet site www.weather.gov. Students examine maximum and minimum daily temperatures, wind speed, and direction. (SAH)

  5. Introducing MOZLEAP: an integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahumane, G; Mulder, P.

    2016-01-01

    Since recently Mozambique is actively developing its large reserves of coal, natural gas and hydropower. Against this background, we present the first integrated long-run scenario model of the Mozambican energy sector. Our model, which we name MOZLEAP, is calibrated on the basis of recently

  6. Higher-order effects in asset-pricing models with long-run risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pohl, W.; Schmedders, K.; Wilms, Ole

    This paper shows that the latest generation of asset pricing models with long-run risk exhibits economically significant nonlinearities, and thus the ubiquitous Campbell--Shiller log-linearization can generate large numerical errors. These errors in turn translate to considerable errors in the model

  7. Implementation of a GNSS Meteorological model to the estimation of the Haines Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Laura Isabel; Aragon-Paz, Juan Manuel; Mendoza, Luciano Pedro Oscar; Meza, Amalia Margarita

    2017-04-01

    Wildfire indexes evaluate the risk of forest fire occurrences and the dangerousness of its large and erratic propagation. In this context, the widely used Haines Index assesses the potential contribution of the atmosphere in forecasting and monitoring the behavior of the plume-dominated wildfires. The main goal of this study is the analysis of advantages in applying the GPT2w, an empirical model originally developed for Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Meteorology, to the estimation of the Haines Index. To this aim, a statistical analysis of the differences between this estimation and the real values from radiosondes was performed. The selected area comprises a region of South America between latitudes 15° S and 35° S. This area was chosen due to the availability of the radiosonde launches required for validation during the year of study (2011). Previously, for characterizing the expected regional performance of the Haines Index, the Climatology was developed by using data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis model (ERA Interim) for the period 2000-2011. Afterwards a statistical analysis of the differences between the index estimation from the application of the GPT2w with respect to the real index values, that is: Haines index calculated from radiosonde measurements was performed. Moreover, the additional estimation of the Haines Index by using multi-level data from ERA Interim at the same control stations was also provided. Because the GPT2w model is freely available, the analysis of the results discusses the advantages of using this approach where radiosonde launches are scarce. Likewise, strategies for improving the deficiencies of this estimate are also presented.

  8. METRODOS: Meteorological preprocessor chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Astrup, P.; Mikkelsen, T.; Deme, S.

    2001-01-01

    The METRODOS meteorological preprocessor chain combines measured tower data and coarse grid numerical weather prediction (NWP) data with local scale flow models and similarity scaling to give high resolution approximations of the meteorological situation. Based on available wind velocity...... - heat flux related measurement, e.g. a temperature gradient, are used to give local values of friction velocity and Monin-Obukhov length plus an estimate of the mixing height. The METRODOS meteorological preprocessor chain is an integral part of the RODOS - Real Time On Line Decision Support - program...

  9. Smart Irrigation From Soil Moisture Forecast Using Satellite And Hydro -Meteorological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco; Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ceppi, Alessandro; Salerno, Raffaele; Sobrino, Josè

    2017-04-01

    Increased water demand and climate change impacts have recently enhanced the need to improve water resources management, even in those areas which traditionally have an abundant supply of water. The highest consumption of water is devoted to irrigation for agricultural production, and so it is in this area that efforts have to be focused to study possible interventions. The SIM project funded by EU in the framework of the WaterWorks2014 - Water Joint Programming Initiative aims at developing an operational tool for real-time forecast of crops irrigation water requirements to support parsimonious water management and to optimize irrigation scheduling providing real-time and forecasted soil moisture behavior at high spatial and temporal resolutions with forecast horizons from few up to thirty days. This study discusses advances in coupling satellite driven soil water balance model and meteorological forecast as support for precision irrigation use comparing different case studies in Italy, in the Netherlands, in China and Spain, characterized by different climatic conditions, water availability, crop types and irrigation techniques and water distribution rules. Herein, the applications in two operative farms in vegetables production in the South of Italy where semi-arid climatic conditions holds, two maize fields in Northern Italy in a more water reach environment with flood irrigation will be presented. This system combines state of the art mathematical models and new technologies for environmental monitoring, merging ground observed data with Earth observations. Discussion on the methodology approach is presented, comparing for a reanalysis periods the forecast system outputs with observed soil moisture and crop water needs proving the reliability of the forecasting system and its benefits. The real-time visualization of the implemented system is also presented through web-dashboards.

  10. k-Nearest Neighbor Neural Network Models for Very Short-Term Global Solar Irradiance Forecasting Based on Meteorological Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao-Rong Chen

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel methodology for very short term forecasting of hourly global solar irradiance (GSI. The proposed methodology is based on meteorology data, especially for optimizing the operation of power generating electricity from photovoltaic (PV energy. This methodology is a combination of k-nearest neighbor (k-NN algorithm modelling and artificial neural network (ANN model. The k-NN-ANN method is designed to forecast GSI for 60 min ahead based on meteorology data for the target PV station which position is surrounded by eight other adjacent PV stations. The novelty of this method is taking into account the meteorology data. A set of GSI measurement samples was available from the PV station in Taiwan which is used as test data. The first method implements k-NN as a preprocessing technique prior to ANN method. The error statistical indicators of k-NN-ANN model the mean absolute bias error (MABE is 42 W/m2 and the root-mean-square error (RMSE is 242 W/m2. The models forecasts are then compared to measured data and simulation results indicate that the k-NN-ANN-based model presented in this research can calculate hourly GSI with satisfactory accuracy.

  11. Usefulness of running wheel for detection of congestive heart failure in dilated cardiomyopathy mouse model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masami Sugihara

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Inherited dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM is a progressive disease that often results in death from congestive heart failure (CHF or sudden cardiac death (SCD. Mouse models with human DCM mutation are useful to investigate the developmental mechanisms of CHF and SCD, but knowledge of the severity of CHF in live mice is necessary. We aimed to diagnose CHF in live DCM model mice by measuring voluntary exercise using a running wheel and to determine causes of death in these mice. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A knock-in mouse with a mutation in cardiac troponin T (ΔK210 (DCM mouse, which results in frequent death with a t(1/2 of 70 to 90 days, was used as a DCM model. Until 2 months of age, average wheel-running activity was similar between wild-type and DCM mice (approximately 7 km/day. At approximately 3 months, some DCM mice demonstrated low running activity (LO: 5 km/day. In the LO group, the lung weight/body weight ratio was much higher than that in the other groups, and the lungs were infiltrated with hemosiderin-loaded alveolar macrophages. Furthermore, echocardiography showed more severe ventricular dilation and a lower ejection fraction, whereas Electrocardiography (ECG revealed QRS widening. There were two patterns in the time courses of running activity before death in DCM mice: deaths with maintained activity and deaths with decreased activity. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results indicate that DCM mice with low running activity developed severe CHF and that running wheels are useful for detection of CHF in mouse models. We found that approximately half of ΔK210 DCM mice die suddenly before onset of CHF, whereas others develop CHF, deteriorate within 10 to 20 days, and die.

  12. Modeling the impacts of green infrastructure land use changes on air quality and meteorology case study and sensitivity analysis in Kansas City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changes in vegetation cover associated with urban planning efforts may affect regional meteorology and air quality. Here we use a comprehensive coupled meteorology-air quality model (WRF-CMAQ) to simulate the influence of planned land use changes from green infrastructure impleme...

  13. Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Samra, R.; Bou-Zeid, E.; Bangalath, H. K.; Stenchikov, G.; El-Fadel, M.

    2017-12-01

    A set of ten downscaling simulations at high spatial resolution (3 km horizontally) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate future climate projections of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over the Eastern Mediterranean (with a focus on Lebanon). The model was driven with the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), running over the whole globe at a resolution of 25 km, under the conditions of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (4.5 and 8.5). Each downscaling simulation spanned one year. Two past years (2003 and 2008), also forced by HiRAM without data assimilation, were simulated to evaluate the model's ability to capture the cold and wet (2003) and hot and dry (2008) extremes. The downscaled data were in the range of recent observed climatic variability, and therefore corrected for the cold bias of HiRAM. Eight future years were then selected based on an anomaly score that relies on the mean annual temperature and accumulated precipitation to identify the worst year per decade from a water resources perspective. One hot and dry year per decade, from 2011 to 2050, and per scenario was simulated and compared to the historic 2008 reference. The results indicate that hot and dry future extreme years will be exacerbated and the study area might be exposed to a significant decrease in annual precipitation (rain and snow), reaching up to 30% relative to the current extreme conditions.

  14. Coupling X-band dual-polarized mini-radars and hydro-meteorological forecast models: the HYDRORAD project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Picciotti

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Hydro-meteorological hazards like convective outbreaks leading to torrential rain and floods are among the most critical environmental issues world-wide. In that context weather radar observations have proven to be very useful in providing information on the spatial distribution of rainfall that can support early warning of floods. However, quantitative precipitation estimation by radar is subjected to many limitations and uncertainties. The use of dual-polarization at high frequency (i.e. X-band has proven particularly useful for mitigating some of the limitation of operational systems, by exploiting the benefit of easiness to transport and deploy and the high spatial and temporal resolution achievable at small antenna sizes. New developments on X-band dual-polarization technology in recent years have received the interest of scientific and operational communities in these systems. New enterprises are focusing on the advancement of cost-efficient mini-radar network technology, based on high-frequency (mainly X-band and low-power weather radar systems for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological forecasting. Within the above context, the main objective of the HYDRORAD project was the development of an innovative mbox{integrated} decision support tool for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological applications. The integrated system tool is based on a polarimetric X-band mini-radar network which is the core of the decision support tool, a novel radar products generator and a hydro-meteorological forecast modelling system that ingests mini-radar rainfall products to forecast precipitation and floods. The radar products generator includes algorithms for attenuation correction, hydrometeor classification, a vertical profile reflectivity correction, a new polarimetric rainfall estimators developed for mini-radar observations, and short-term nowcasting of convective cells. The hydro-meteorological modelling system includes the Mesoscale Model 5

  15. Coupling X-band dual-polarized mini-radars and hydro-meteorological forecast models: the HYDRORAD project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picciotti, E.; Marzano, F. S.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Kalogiros, J.; Fessas, Y.; Volpi, A.; Cazac, V.; Pace, R.; Cinque, G.; Bernardini, L.; De Sanctis, K.; Di Fabio, S.; Montopoli, M.; Anagnostou, M. N.; Telleschi, A.; Dimitriou, E.; Stella, J.

    2013-05-01

    Hydro-meteorological hazards like convective outbreaks leading to torrential rain and floods are among the most critical environmental issues world-wide. In that context weather radar observations have proven to be very useful in providing information on the spatial distribution of rainfall that can support early warning of floods. However, quantitative precipitation estimation by radar is subjected to many limitations and uncertainties. The use of dual-polarization at high frequency (i.e. X-band) has proven particularly useful for mitigating some of the limitation of operational systems, by exploiting the benefit of easiness to transport and deploy and the high spatial and temporal resolution achievable at small antenna sizes. New developments on X-band dual-polarization technology in recent years have received the interest of scientific and operational communities in these systems. New enterprises are focusing on the advancement of cost-efficient mini-radar network technology, based on high-frequency (mainly X-band) and low-power weather radar systems for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological forecasting. Within the above context, the main objective of the HYDRORAD project was the development of an innovative integrated decision support tool for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological applications. The integrated system tool is based on a polarimetric X-band mini-radar network which is the core of the decision support tool, a novel radar products generator and a hydro-meteorological forecast modelling system that ingests mini-radar rainfall products to forecast precipitation and floods. The radar products generator includes algorithms for attenuation correction, hydrometeor classification, a vertical profile reflectivity correction, a new polarimetric rainfall estimators developed for mini-radar observations, and short-term nowcasting of convective cells. The hydro-meteorological modelling system includes the Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) and the Army Corps

  16. Sensitivity of ocean model simulation in the coastal ocean to the resolution of the meteorological forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Feng; Shapiro, Georgy; Thain, Richard

    2013-04-01

    The quality of ocean simulations depends on a number of factors such as approximations in governing equations, errors introduced by the numerical scheme, uncertainties in input parameters, and atmospheric forcing. The identification of relations between the uncertainties in input and output data is still a challenge for the development of numerical models. The impacts of ocean variables on ocean models are still not well known (e.g., Kara et al., 2009). Given the considerable importance of the atmospheric forcing to the air-sea interaction, it is essential that researchers in ocean modelling work need a good understanding about how sensitive the atmospheric forcing is to variations of model results, which is beneficial to the development of ocean models. Also, it provides a proper way to choose the atmospheric forcing in ocean modelling applications. Our previous study (Shapiro et al, 2011) has shown that the basin-wide circulation pattern and the temperature structure in the Black Sea produced by the same model is significantly dependent on the source of the meteorological input, giving remarkably different responses. For the purpose of this study we have chosen the Celtic Sea where high resolution meteo data are available from the UK Met office since 2006. The Celtic Sea is tidally dominated water basin, with the tidal stream amplitude varying from 0.25m/s in the southwest to 2 m/s in the Bristol Channel. It is also filled with mesoscale eddies which contribute to the formation of the residual (tidally averaged) circulation pattern (Young et al, 2003). The sea is strongly stratified from April to November, which adds to the formation of density driven currents. In this paper we analyse how sensitive the model output is to variations in the spatial resolution of meteorological using low (1.6°) and high (0.11°) resolution meteo forcing, giving the quantitative relation between variations of met forcing and the resulted differences of model results, as well as

  17. Modeling the Short-Term Effect of Traffic and Meteorology on Air Pollution in Turin with Generalized Additive Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pancrazio Bertaccini

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Vehicular traffic plays an important role in atmospheric pollution and can be used as one of the key predictors in air-quality forecasting models. The models that can account for the role of traffic are especially valuable in urban areas, where high pollutant concentrations are often observed during particular times of day (rush hour and year (winter. In this paper, we develop a generalized additive models approach to analyze the behavior of concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2, and particulate matter (PM10, collected at the environmental monitoring stations distributed throughout the city of Turin, Italy, from December 2003 to April 2005. We describe nonlinear relationships between predictors and pollutants, that are adjusted for unobserved time-varying confounders. We examine several functional forms for the traffic variable and find that a simple form can often provide adequate modeling power. Our analysis shows that there is a saturation effect of traffic on NO2, while such saturation is less evident in models linking traffic to PM10 behavior, having adjusted for meteorological covariates. Moreover, we consider the proposed models separately by seasons and highlight similarities and differences in the predictors’ partial effects. Finally, we show how forecasting can help in evaluating traffic regulation policies.

  18. ASCHFLOW - A dynamic landslide run-out model for medium scale hazard analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Quan Luna, B.; Blahůt, Jan; van Asch, T.W.J.; van Westen, C.J.; Kappes, M.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 3, 12 December (2016), č. článku 29. E-ISSN 2197-8670 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : landslides * run-out models * medium scale hazard analysis * quantitative risk assessment Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography

  19. Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

    KAUST Repository

    El-Samra, R.

    2017-02-15

    A set of ten downscaling simulations at high spatial resolution (3 km horizontally) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate future climate projections of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over the Eastern Mediterranean (with a focus on Lebanon). The model was driven with the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), running over the whole globe at a resolution of 25 km, under the conditions of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (4.5 and 8.5). Each downscaling simulation spanned one year. Two past years (2003 and 2008), also forced by HiRAM without data assimilation, were simulated to evaluate the model’s ability to capture the cold and wet (2003) and hot and dry (2008) extremes. The downscaled data were in the range of recent observed climatic variability, and therefore corrected for the cold bias of HiRAM. Eight future years were then selected based on an anomaly score that relies on the mean annual temperature and accumulated precipitation to identify the worst year per decade from a water resources perspective. One hot and dry year per decade, from 2011 to 2050, and per scenario was simulated and compared to the historic 2008 reference. The results indicate that hot and dry future extreme years will be exacerbated and the study area might be exposed to a significant decrease in annual precipitation (rain and snow), reaching up to 30% relative to the current extreme conditions.

  20. Randomly curved runs interrupted by tumbling: A model for bacterial motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Condat, C. A.; Jäckle, J.; Menchón, S. A.

    2005-08-01

    Small bacteria are strongly buffeted by Brownian forces that make completely straight runs impossible. A model for bacterial motion is formulated in which the effects of fluctuational forces and torques on the run phase are taken into account by using coupled Langevin equations. An integrated description of the motion, including runs and tumbles, is then obtained by the use of convolution and Laplace transforms. The properties of the velocity-velocity correlation function, of the mean displacement, and of the two relevant diffusion coefficients are examined in terms of the bacterial sizes and of the magnitude of the propelling forces. For bacteria smaller than E. coli, the integrated diffusion coefficient crosses over from a jump-dominated to a rotational-diffusion-dominated form.

  1. Biomechanical modeling and sensitivity analysis of bipedal running ability. II. Extinct taxa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchinson, John R

    2004-10-01

    Using an inverse dynamics biomechanical analysis that was previously validated for extant bipeds, I calculated the minimum amount of actively contracting hindlimb extensor muscle that would have been needed for rapid bipedal running in several extinct dinosaur taxa. I analyzed models of nine theropod dinosaurs (including birds) covering over five orders of magnitude in size. My results uphold previous findings that large theropods such as Tyrannosaurus could not run very quickly, whereas smaller theropods (including some extinct birds) were adept runners. Furthermore, my results strengthen the contention that many nonavian theropods, especially larger individuals, used fairly upright limb orientations, which would have reduced required muscular force, and hence muscle mass. Additional sensitivity analysis of muscle fascicle lengths, moment arms, and limb orientation supports these conclusions and points out directions for future research on the musculoskeletal limits on running ability. Although ankle extensor muscle support is shown to have been important for all taxa, the ability of hip extensor muscles to support the body appears to be a crucial limit for running capacity in larger taxa. I discuss what speeds were possible for different theropod dinosaurs, and how running ability evolved in an inverse relationship to body size in archosaurs. 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  2. Modeling driver stop/run behavior at the onset of a yellow indication considering driver run tendency and roadway surface conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elhenawy, Mohammed; Jahangiri, Arash; Rakha, Hesham A; El-Shawarby, Ihab

    2015-10-01

    The ability to model driver stop/run behavior at signalized intersections considering the roadway surface condition is critical in the design of advanced driver assistance systems. Such systems can reduce intersection crashes and fatalities by predicting driver stop/run behavior. The research presented in this paper uses data collected from two controlled field experiments on the Smart Road at the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) to model driver stop/run behavior at the onset of a yellow indication for different roadway surface conditions. The paper offers two contributions. First, it introduces a new predictor related to driver aggressiveness and demonstrates that this measure enhances the modeling of driver stop/run behavior. Second, it applies well-known artificial intelligence techniques including: adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), random forest, and support vector machine (SVM) algorithms as well as traditional logistic regression techniques on the data in order to develop a model that can be used by traffic signal controllers to predict driver stop/run decisions in a connected vehicle environment. The research demonstrates that by adding the proposed driver aggressiveness predictor to the model, there is a statistically significant increase in the model accuracy. Moreover the false alarm rate is significantly reduced but this reduction is not statistically significant. The study demonstrates that, for the subject data, the SVM machine learning algorithm performs the best in terms of optimum classification accuracy and false positive rates. However, the SVM model produces the best performance in terms of the classification accuracy only. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Simulating run-up on steep slopes with operational Boussinesq models; capabilities, spurious effects and instabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Løvholt

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Tsunamis induced by rock slides plunging into fjords constitute a severe threat to local coastal communities. The rock slide impact may give rise to highly non-linear waves in the near field, and because the wave lengths are relatively short, frequency dispersion comes into play. Fjord systems are rugged with steep slopes, and modeling non-linear dispersive waves in this environment with simultaneous run-up is demanding. We have run an operational Boussinesq-type TVD (total variation diminishing model using different run-up formulations. Two different tests are considered, inundation on steep slopes and propagation in a trapezoidal channel. In addition, a set of Lagrangian models serves as reference models. Demanding test cases with solitary waves with amplitudes ranging from 0.1 to 0.5 were applied, and slopes were ranging from 10 to 50°. Different run-up formulations yielded clearly different accuracy and stability, and only some provided similar accuracy as the reference models. The test cases revealed that the model was prone to instabilities for large non-linearity and fine resolution. Some of the instabilities were linked with false breaking during the first positive inundation, which was not observed for the reference models. None of the models were able to handle the bore forming during drawdown, however. The instabilities are linked to short-crested undulations on the grid scale, and appear on fine resolution during inundation. As a consequence, convergence was not always obtained. It is reason to believe that the instability may be a general problem for Boussinesq models in fjords.

  4. Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs*

    KAUST Repository

    Castruccio, Stefano

    2014-03-01

    The authors describe a new approach for emulating the output of a fully coupled climate model under arbitrary forcing scenarios that is based on a small set of precomputed runs from the model. Temperature and precipitation are expressed as simple functions of the past trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and a statistical model is fit using a limited set of training runs. The approach is demonstrated to be a useful and computationally efficient alternative to pattern scaling and captures the nonlinear evolution of spatial patterns of climate anomalies inherent in transient climates. The approach does as well as pattern scaling in all circumstances and substantially better in many; it is not computationally demanding; and, once the statistical model is fit, it produces emulated climate output effectively instantaneously. It may therefore find wide application in climate impacts assessments and other policy analyses requiring rapid climate projections.

  5. Micro-meteorological modelling in urban areas: pollutant dispersion and radiative effects modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milliez, Maya

    2006-01-01

    Atmospheric pollution and urban climate studies require to take into account the complex processes due to heterogeneity of urban areas and the interaction with the buildings. In order to estimate the impact of buildings on flow and pollutant dispersion, detailed numerical simulations were performed over an idealized urban area, with the three-dimensional model Mercure-Saturne, modelling both concentration means and their fluctuations. To take into account atmospheric radiation in built up areas and the thermal effects of the buildings, we implemented a three-dimensional radiative model adapted to complex geometry. This model, adapted from a scheme used for thermal radiation, solves the radiative transfer equation in a semi-transparent media, using the discrete ordinate method. The new scheme was validated with idealized cases and compared to a complete case. (author) [fr

  6. Running the running

    OpenAIRE

    Cabass, Giovanni; Di Valentino, Eleonora; Melchiorri, Alessandro; Pajer, Enrico; Silk, Joseph

    2016-01-01

    We use the recent observations of Cosmic Microwave Background temperature and polarization anisotropies provided by the Planck satellite experiment to place constraints on the running $\\alpha_\\mathrm{s} = \\mathrm{d}n_{\\mathrm{s}} / \\mathrm{d}\\log k$ and the running of the running $\\beta_{\\mathrm{s}} = \\mathrm{d}\\alpha_{\\mathrm{s}} / \\mathrm{d}\\log k$ of the spectral index $n_{\\mathrm{s}}$ of primordial scalar fluctuations. We find $\\alpha_\\mathrm{s}=0.011\\pm0.010$ and $\\beta_\\mathrm{s}=0.027\\...

  7. Nonhydrostatic and surfbeat model predictions of extreme wave run-up in fringing reef environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lashley, Christopher H.; Roelvink, Dano; van Dongeren, Ap R.; Buckley, Mark L.; Lowe, Ryan J.

    2018-01-01

    The accurate prediction of extreme wave run-up is important for effective coastal engineering design and coastal hazard management. While run-up processes on open sandy coasts have been reasonably well-studied, very few studies have focused on understanding and predicting wave run-up at coral reef-fronted coastlines. This paper applies the short-wave resolving, Nonhydrostatic (XB-NH) and short-wave averaged, Surfbeat (XB-SB) modes of the XBeach numerical model to validate run-up using data from two 1D (alongshore uniform) fringing-reef profiles without roughness elements, with two objectives: i) to provide insight into the physical processes governing run-up in such environments; and ii) to evaluate the performance of both modes in accurately predicting run-up over a wide range of conditions. XBeach was calibrated by optimizing the maximum wave steepness parameter (maxbrsteep) in XB-NH and the dissipation coefficient (alpha) in XB-SB) using the first dataset; and then applied to the second dataset for validation. XB-NH and XB-SB predictions of extreme wave run-up (Rmax and R2%) and its components, infragravity- and sea-swell band swash (SIG and SSS) and shoreline setup (), were compared to observations. XB-NH more accurately simulated wave transformation but under-predicted shoreline setup due to its exclusion of parameterized wave-roller dynamics. XB-SB under-predicted sea-swell band swash but overestimated shoreline setup due to an over-prediction of wave heights on the reef flat. Run-up (swash) spectra were dominated by infragravity motions, allowing the short-wave (but not wave group) averaged model (XB-SB) to perform comparably well to its more complete, short-wave resolving (XB-NH) counterpart. Despite their respective limitations, both modes were able to accurately predict Rmax and R2%.

  8. The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue transmission: a multi-level modeling analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Tzai-Hung; Chen, Tzu-Hsin

    2017-04-01

    Dengue fever is one of potentially life-threatening mosquito-borne diseases and IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) has confirmed that dengue incidence is sensitive to the critical weather conditions, such as effects of temperature. However, previous literature focused on the effects of monthly or weekly average temperature or accumulative precipitation on dengue incidence. The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue outbreak is under investigated. The purpose of the study focuses on measuring the effect of the intra- and inter-annual variations of temperature and precipitation on dengue outbreaks. We developed the indices of intra-annual temperature variability are maximum continuity, intermittent, and accumulation of most suitable temperature (MST) for dengue vectors; and also the indices of intra-annual precipitation variability, including the measure of continuity of wetness or dryness during a pre-epidemic period; and rainfall intensity during an epidemic period. We used multi-level modeling to investigate the intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998-2015. Our results indicate that accumulation and maximum continuity of MST are more significant than average temperature on dengue outbreaks. The effect of continuity of wetness during the pre-epidemic period is significantly more positive on promoting dengue outbreaks than the rainfall effect during the epidemic period. Meanwhile, extremely high or low rainfall density during an epidemic period do not promote the spread of dengue epidemics. Our study differentiates the effects of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks and also provides policy implications for further dengue control under the threats of climate change. Keywords: dengue fever, meteorological variations, multi-level model

  9. Coupling of Important Physical Processes in the Planetary Boundary Layer between Meteorological and Chemistry Models for Regional to Continental Scale Air Quality Forecasting: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pius Lee

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available A consensus among many Air Quality (AQ modelers is that planetary boundary layer processes are the most influential processes for surface concentrations of air pollutants. Due to the many uncertainties intrinsically embedded in the parameterization of these processes, parameter optimization is often employed to determine an optimal set or range of values of the sensitive parameters. In this review study, we focus on the two of the most important physical processes: turbulent mixing and dry deposition. An emphasis was put on surveying AQ models that have been proven to resolve meso-scale features and cover a large geographical area, such as large regional, continental, or trans-continental boundary extents. Five AQ models were selected. Four of the models were run in real-time operational forecasting settings for continental scale AQ. The models use various forms of level 2.5 closure algorithms to calculate turbulent mixing. Tuning and parameter optimization has been used to tailor these algorithms to better suit their AQ models which are typically comprised of a coupled chemistry and meteorology model. Longer forecasts and long lead-times are inevitably under increasing demand for these models. Land Surface Models that have the capability for soil moisture and temperature data assimilation will have an advantage to constrain the key variables that govern the partitioning of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes and thus attain the potential to perform better in longer forecasts than those models that do not have this capability. Dry deposition velocity is a very significant model parameter that governs a major surface exchange activity. An exploratory study has been conducted to see the upper bound of roughness length in the similarity equation for aerodynamic resistance.

  10. Methods and strategy for modeling daily global solar radiation with measured meteorological data - A case study in Nanchang station, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Guofeng; Liu, Yaolin; Wang, Tiejun

    2007-01-01

    Solar radiation is a primary driver for many physical, chemical and biological processes on the earth's surface, and complete and accurate solar radiation data at a specific region are quite indispensable to the solar energy related researches. This study, with Nanchang station, China, as a case study, aimed to calibrate existing models and develop new models for estimating missing global solar radiation data using commonly measured meteorological data and to propose a strategy for selecting the optimal models under different situations of available meteorological data. Using daily global radiation, sunshine hours, temperature, total precipitation and dew point data covering the years from 1994 to 2005, we calibrated or developed and evaluated seven existing models and two new models. Validation criteria included intercept, slope, coefficient of determination, mean bias error and root mean square error. The best result (R 2 = 0.93) was derived from Chen model 2, which uses sunshine hours and temperature as predictors. The Bahel model, which only uses sunshine hours, was almost as good, explaining 92% of the solar radiation variance. Temperature based models (Bristow and Campbell, Allen, Hargreaves and Chen 1 models) provided less accurate results, of which the best one (R 2 = 0.69) is the Bristow and Campbell model. The temperature based models were improved by adding other variables (daily mean total precipitation and mean dew point). Two such models could explain 77% (Wu model 1) and 80% (Wu model 2) of the solar radiation variance. We, thus, propose a strategy for selecting an optimal method for calculating missing daily values of global solar radiation: (1) when sunshine hour and temperature data are available, use Chen model 2; (2) when only sunshine hour data are available, use Bahel model; (3) when temperature, total precipitation and dew point data are available but not sunshine hours, use Wu model 2; (4) when only temperature and total precipitation are

  11. Modelling microphysical and meteorological controls on precipitation and cloud cellular structures in Southeast Pacific stratocumulus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wang

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Microphysical and meteorological controls on the formation of open and closed cellular structures in the Southeast Pacific are explored using model simulations based on aircraft observations during the VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx. The effectiveness of factors such as boundary-layer moisture and temperature perturbations, surface heat and moisture fluxes, large-scale vertical motion and solar heating in promoting drizzle and open cell formation for prescribed aerosol number concentrations is explored. For the case considered, drizzle and subsequent open cell formation over a broad region are more sensitive to the observed boundary-layer moisture and temperature perturbations (+0.9 g kg−1; −1 K than to a five-fold decrease in aerosol number concentration (150 vs. 30 mg−1. When embedding the perturbations in closed cells, local drizzle and pockets of open cell (POC formation respond faster to the aerosol reduction than to the moisture increase, but the latter generates stronger and more persistent drizzle. A local negative perturbation in temperature drives a mesoscale circulation that prevents local drizzle formation but promotes it in a remote area where lower-level horizontal transport of moisture is blocked and converges to enhance liquid water path. This represents a potential mechanism for POC formation in the Southeast Pacific stratocumulus region whereby the circulation is triggered by strong precipitation in adjacent broad regions of open cells. A simulation that attempts to mimic the influence of a coastally induced upsidence wave results in an increase in cloud water but this alone is insufficient to initiate drizzle. An increase of surface sensible heat flux is also effective in triggering local drizzle and POC formation.

    Both open and closed cells simulated with observed initial conditions exhibit distinct diurnal variations in cloud properties. A

  12. NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Local Model Runs in the Environmental Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Carcione, Brian; Wood, Lance; Maloney, Joseph; Estupinan, Jeral; Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Blottman, Peter; Rozumalski, Robert A.

    2011-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed several products for its National Weather Service (NWS) partners that can be used to initialize local model runs within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Environmental Modeling System (EMS). These real-time datasets consist of surface-based information updated at least once per day, and produced in a composite or gridded product that is easily incorporated into the WRF EMS. The primary goal for making these NASA datasets available to the WRF EMS community is to provide timely and high-quality information at a spatial resolution comparable to that used in the local model configurations (i.e., convection-allowing scales). The current suite of SPoRT products supported in the WRF EMS include a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) composite, a Great Lakes sea-ice extent, a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composite, and Land Information System (LIS) gridded output. The SPoRT SST composite is a blend of primarily the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) infrared and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System data for non-precipitation coverage over the oceans at 2-km resolution. The composite includes a special lake surface temperature analysis over the Great Lakes using contributions from the Remote Sensing Systems temperature data. The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Ice Percentage product is used to create a sea-ice mask in the SPoRT SST composite. The sea-ice mask is produced daily (in-season) at 1.8-km resolution and identifies ice percentage from 0 100% in 10% increments, with values above 90% flagged as ice.

  13. Statistical Model for Predicting Weather Through Lunar Phase - Meteorological Phenomena Relationships in Makassar City

    OpenAIRE

    Hasanah, Nur

    2012-01-01

    ome scientist had made an evidence to proof the relationship between lunar phase and meteorological phenomena in their own area. Here we also did the assignment statistically in the case of Makassar City, Indonesia. We were using official meteorologist data, such as rainfall, clouds, and temperature, covering a period 28 years from January 1984 to December 2011. The statistical analyses were done using discriminant analysis and persistence. Further, we tested the result with cross validation ...

  14. Integration of Ground, Buoys, Satellite and Model data to map the Changes in Meteorological Parameters Associated with Harvey Hurricane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chauhan, A.; Sarkar, S.; Singh, R. P.

    2017-12-01

    The coastal areas have dense onshore and marine observation network and are also routinely monitored by constellation of satellites. The monitoring of ocean, land and atmosphere through a range of meteorological parameters, provides information about the land and ocean surface. Satellite data also provide information at different pressure levels that help to access the development of tropical storms and formation of hurricanes at different categories. Integration of ground, buoys, satellite and model data showing the changes in meteorological parameters during the landfall stages of hurricane Harvey will be discussed. Hurricane Harvey was one of the deadliest hurricanes at the Gulf coast which caused intense flooding from the precipitation. The various observation networks helped city administrators to evacuate the coastal areas, that minimized the loss of lives compared to the Galveston hurricane of 1900 which took 10,000 lives. Comparison of meteorological parameters derived from buoys, ground stations and satellites associated with Harvey and 2005 Katrina hurricane present some of the interesting features of the two hurricanes.

  15. Analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft exhaust dispersion and deposition using a Lagrangian particle model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pecorari, Eliana; Mantovani, Alice; Franceschini, Chiara; Bassano, Davide; Palmeri, Luca; Rampazzo, Giancarlo

    2016-01-15

    The risk of air quality degradation is of considerable concern particularly for those airports that are located near urban areas. The ability to quantitatively predict the effects of air pollutants originated by airport operations is important for assessing air quality and the related impacts on human health. Current emission regulations have focused on local air quality in the proximity of airports. However, an integrated study should consider the effects of meteorological events, at both regional and local level, that can affect the dispersion and the deposition of exhausts. Rigorous scientific studies and extensive experimental data could contribute to the analysis of the impacts of airports expansion plans. This paper is focused on the analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft emission for the Marco Polo Airport in Venice. This is the most important international airport in the eastern part of the Po' Valley, one of the most polluted area in Europe. Air pollution is exacerbated by meteorology that is a combination of large and local scale effects that do not allow significant dispersion. Moreover, the airport is located near Venice, a city of noteworthy cultural and architectural relevance, and nearby the lagoon that hosts several areas of outstanding ecological importance at European level (Natura 2000 sites). Dispersion and deposit of the main aircraft exhausts (NOx, HC and CO) have been evaluated by using a Lagrangian particle model. Spatial and temporal aircraft exhaust dispersion has been analyzed for LTO cycle. Aircraft taxiing resulted to be the most impacting aircraft operation especially for the airport working area and its surroundings, however occasionally peaks may be observed even at high altitudes when cruise mode starts. Mixing height can affect concentrations more significantly than the concentrations in the exhausts themselves. An increase of HC and CO concentrations (15-50%) has been observed during specific meteorological events

  16. The long-run forecasting of energy prices using the model of shifting trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radchenko, Stanislav

    2005-01-01

    Developing models for accurate long-term energy price forecasting is an important problem because these forecasts should be useful in determining both supply and demand of energy. On the supply side, long-term forecasts determine investment decisions of energy-related companies. On the demand side, investments in physical capital and durable goods depend on price forecasts of a particular energy type. Forecasting long-run rend movements in energy prices is very important on the macroeconomic level for several developing countries because energy prices have large impacts on their real output, the balance of payments, fiscal policy, etc. Pindyck (1999) argues that the dynamics of real energy prices is mean-reverting to trend lines with slopes and levels that are shifting unpredictably over time. The hypothesis of shifting long-term trend lines was statistically tested by Benard et al. (2004). The authors find statistically significant instabilities for coal and natural gas prices. I continue the research of energy prices in the framework of continuously shifting levels and slopes of trend lines started by Pindyck (1999). The examined model offers both parsimonious approach and perspective on the developments in energy markets. Using the model of depletable resource production, Pindyck (1999) argued that the forecast of energy prices in the model is based on the long-run total marginal cost. Because the model of a shifting trend is based on the competitive behavior, one may examine deviations of oil producers from the competitive behavior by studying the difference between actual prices and long-term forecasts. To construct the long-run forecasts (10-year-ahead and 15-year-ahead) of energy prices, I modify the univariate shifting trends model of Pindyck (1999). I relax some assumptions on model parameters, the assumption of white noise error term, and propose a new Bayesian approach utilizing a Gibbs sampling algorithm to estimate the model with autocorrelation. To

  17. Analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft exhaust dispersion and deposition using a Lagrangian particle model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pecorari, Eliana; Mantovani, Alice; Franceschini, Chiara; Bassano, Davide; Palmeri, Luca; Rampazzo, Giancarlo

    2016-01-01

    The risk of air quality degradation is of considerable concern particularly for those airports that are located near urban areas. The ability to quantitatively predict the effects of air pollutants originated by airport operations is important for assessing air quality and the related impacts on human health. Current emission regulations have focused on local air quality in the proximity of airports. However, an integrated study should consider the effects of meteorological events, at both regional and local level, that can affect the dispersion and the deposition of exhausts. Rigorous scientific studies and extensive experimental data could contribute to the analysis of the impacts of airports expansion plans. This paper is focused on the analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft emission for the Marco Polo Airport in Venice. This is the most important international airport in the eastern part of the Po’ Valley, one of the most polluted area in Europe. Air pollution is exacerbated by meteorology that is a combination of large and local scale effects that do not allow significant dispersion. Moreover, the airport is located near Venice, a city of noteworthy cultural and architectural relevance, and nearby the lagoon that hosts several areas of outstanding ecological importance at European level (Natura 2000 sites). Dispersion and deposit of the main aircraft exhausts (NOx, HC and CO) have been evaluated by using a Lagrangian particle model. Spatial and temporal aircraft exhaust dispersion has been analyzed for LTO cycle. Aircraft taxiing resulted to be the most impacting aircraft operation especially for the airport working area and its surroundings, however occasionally peaks may be observed even at high altitudes when cruise mode starts. Mixing height can affect concentrations more significantly than the concentrations in the exhausts themselves. An increase of HC and CO concentrations (15–50%) has been observed during specific meteorological events

  18. Analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft exhaust dispersion and deposition using a Lagrangian particle model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pecorari, Eliana, E-mail: eliana.pecorari@unive.it [Department of Environmental Science, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Calle Larga Santa Marta 2137, Dorsoduro, 30123 Venezia (Italy); Mantovani, Alice [OSMOTECH S.r.l., via Francesco Sforza, 15, 20122 Milano (Italy); Franceschini, Chiara [Department of Environmental Science, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Calle Larga Santa Marta 2137, Dorsoduro, 30123 Venezia (Italy); Bassano, Davide [SAVE S.p.A., Marco Polo Venice airport viale G. Galilei 30/1, 30173 Tessera-Venezia (Italy); Palmeri, Luca [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Padova, v. Marzolo 9, 35131 Padova (Italy); Rampazzo, Giancarlo [Department of Environmental Science, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’ Foscari Venice, Calle Larga Santa Marta 2137, Dorsoduro, 30123 Venezia (Italy)

    2016-01-15

    The risk of air quality degradation is of considerable concern particularly for those airports that are located near urban areas. The ability to quantitatively predict the effects of air pollutants originated by airport operations is important for assessing air quality and the related impacts on human health. Current emission regulations have focused on local air quality in the proximity of airports. However, an integrated study should consider the effects of meteorological events, at both regional and local level, that can affect the dispersion and the deposition of exhausts. Rigorous scientific studies and extensive experimental data could contribute to the analysis of the impacts of airports expansion plans. This paper is focused on the analysis of the effects of meteorology on aircraft emission for the Marco Polo Airport in Venice. This is the most important international airport in the eastern part of the Po’ Valley, one of the most polluted area in Europe. Air pollution is exacerbated by meteorology that is a combination of large and local scale effects that do not allow significant dispersion. Moreover, the airport is located near Venice, a city of noteworthy cultural and architectural relevance, and nearby the lagoon that hosts several areas of outstanding ecological importance at European level (Natura 2000 sites). Dispersion and deposit of the main aircraft exhausts (NOx, HC and CO) have been evaluated by using a Lagrangian particle model. Spatial and temporal aircraft exhaust dispersion has been analyzed for LTO cycle. Aircraft taxiing resulted to be the most impacting aircraft operation especially for the airport working area and its surroundings, however occasionally peaks may be observed even at high altitudes when cruise mode starts. Mixing height can affect concentrations more significantly than the concentrations in the exhausts themselves. An increase of HC and CO concentrations (15–50%) has been observed during specific meteorological events

  19. Constraints on running vacuum model with H ( z ) and f σ{sub 8}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geng, Chao-Qiang [Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, 400065 (China); Lee, Chung-Chi [DAMTP, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA (United Kingdom); Yin, Lu, E-mail: geng@phys.nthu.edu.tw, E-mail: lee.chungchi16@gmail.com, E-mail: yinlumail@foxmail.com [Department of Physics, National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, 300 Taiwan (China)

    2017-08-01

    We examine the running vacuum model with Λ ( H ) = 3 ν H {sup 2} + Λ{sub 0}, where ν is the model parameter and Λ{sub 0} is the cosmological constant. From the data of the cosmic microwave background radiation, weak lensing and baryon acoustic oscillation along with the time dependent Hubble parameter H ( z ) and weighted linear growth f ( z )σ{sub 8}( z ) measurements, we find that ν=(1.37{sup +0.72}{sub −0.95})× 10{sup −4} with the best fitted χ{sup 2} value slightly smaller than that in the ΛCDM model.

  20. Anticipating the severity of the fire season in Northern Portugal using statistical models based on meteorological indices of fire danger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, Sílvia A.; DaCamara, Carlos C.; Turkman, Kamil F.; Ermida, Sofia L.; Calado, Teresa J.

    2017-04-01

    Like in other regions of Mediterranean Europe, climate and weather are major drivers of fire activity in Portugal. The aim of the present study is to assess the role played by meteorological factors on inter-annual variability of burned area over a region of Portugal characterized by large fire activity. Monthly cumulated values of burned area in August are obtained from the fire database of ICNF, the Portuguese authority for forests. The role of meteorological factors is characterized by means of Daily Severity Rating, DSR, an index of meteorological fire danger, which is derived from meteorological fields as obtained from ECMWF Interim Reanalysis. The study area is characterized by the predominance of forest, with high percentages of maritime pine and eucalyptus, two species with high flammability in summer. The time series of recorded burned area in August during 1980-2011 is highly correlated (correlation coefficient of 0.93) with the one for whole Portugal. First, a normal distribution model is fitted to the 32-year sample of decimal logarithms of monthly burned area. The model is improved by introducing two covariates:(1) the top-down meteorological factor (DSRtd) which consists of daily cumulated values of DSR since April 1 to July 31 and may be viewed as the cumulated stress on vegetation due to meteorological conditions during the pre-fire season; (2) the bottom-up factor (DSRbu) which consists of the square root of the mean of the squared daily deviations (restricted to days with positive departures of DSR from the corresponding long term mean) and may be viewed as the contribution of days characterized by extreme weather conditions favoring the onset and spreading of wildfires. Three different statistical models are then developed: the "climate anomaly" model, using DSRtd as covariate, the "weather anomaly", using DSRbu as covariate, and the "combined" model using both variables as covariates. These models are used to define background fire danger, fire

  1. Effects of Yaw Error on Wind Turbine Running Characteristics Based on the Equivalent Wind Speed Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuting Wan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Natural wind is stochastic, being characterized by its speed and direction which change randomly and frequently. Because of the certain lag in control systems and the yaw body itself, wind turbines cannot be accurately aligned toward the wind direction when the wind speed and wind direction change frequently. Thus, wind turbines often suffer from a series of engineering issues during operation, including frequent yaw, vibration overruns and downtime. This paper aims to study the effects of yaw error on wind turbine running characteristics at different wind speeds and control stages by establishing a wind turbine model, yaw error model and the equivalent wind speed model that includes the wind shear and tower shadow effects. Formulas for the relevant effect coefficients Tc, Sc and Pc were derived. The simulation results indicate that the effects of the aerodynamic torque, rotor speed and power output due to yaw error at different running stages are different and that the effect rules for each coefficient are not identical when the yaw error varies. These results may provide theoretical support for optimizing the yaw control strategies for each stage to increase the running stability of wind turbines and the utilization rate of wind energy.

  2. Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB/BSC-ASH-v1.0: A novel multiscale meteorological model for operational forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marti, Alejandro; Folch, Arnau; Jorba, Oriol; Janjic, Zavisa

    2016-04-01

    Volcanic ash forecast became a research priority and a social concern as a consequence of the severe air-traffic disruptions caused by the eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland, 2010) and Cordón Caulle (Chile, 2011) volcanoes. Significant progress has taken place in the aftermath of these dramatic events to improve the accuracy of Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersal (VATD) models and lessen its associated uncertainties. Various levels of uncertainties affect both the quantification of the source term and the driving meteorological inputs. Substantial research is being performed to reduce and quantify epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties affecting the source term. However, uncertainties arising from the driving NWPMs and its coupling offline with the VATDMs have received little attention, even if the experience from other communities (e.g. air quality) highlights the importance of coupling online dispersal and meteorological modeling. Consequently, the need for integrated predictions to represent these two-way feedback effects of the volcanic pollutants on local-scale meteorology is timely. The aim of this talk is to present the NMMB/BSC-ASH, a new on-line multi-scale meteorological model to simulate the emission, transport and deposition of tephra particles released from volcanic eruptions. The model builds on the NMMB/BSC Chemical Transport Model (NMMB/BSC-CTM), which we have modified to account for the specifics of volcanic particles. The final objective in developing the NMMB/BSC-ASH model is two-fold. On one hand, at a research level, we aim at studying the differences between the online/offline approaches and quantify the two-way feedback effect of dense volcanic ash clouds on the radiative budget and regional meteorology. On the other hand, at an operational level, the low computational cost of the NMMB dynamic core suggests that NMMB/BSC-ASH could be applied in a future for more accurate online operational forecasting of volcanic ash clouds.

  3. Running scenarios using the Waste Tank Safety and Operations Hanford Site model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stahlman, E.J.

    1995-11-01

    Management of the Waste Tank Safety and Operations (WTS ampersand O) at Hanford is a large and complex task encompassing 177 tanks and having a budget of over $500 million per year. To assist managers in this task, a model based on system dynamics was developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The model simulates the WTS ampersand O at the Hanford Tank Farms by modeling the planning, control, and flow of work conducted by Managers, Engineers, and Crafts. The model is described in Policy Analysis of Hanford Tank Farm Operations with System Dynamics Approach (Kwak 1995b) and Management Simulator for Hanford Tank Farm Operations (Kwak 1995a). This document provides guidance for users of the model in developing, running, and analyzing results of management scenarios. The reader is assumed to have an understanding of the model and its operation. Important parameters and variables in the model are described, and two scenarios are formulated as examples

  4. METRODOS: Meteorological preprocessor chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Astrup, P.; Mikkelsen, T.; Deme, S.

    2001-01-01

    The METRODOS meteorological preprocessor chain combines measured tower data and coarse grid numerical weather prediction (NWP) data with local scale flow models and similarity scaling to give high resolution approximations of the meteorological situation. Based on available wind velocity...... - heat flux related measurement, e.g. a temperature gradient, are used to give local values of friction velocity and Monin-Obukhov length plus an estimate of the mixing height. The METRODOS meteorological preprocessor chain is an integral part of the RODOS - Real Time On Line Decision Support - program...... and direction measurements/NWP predictions, the LINCOM or the MCF flow model determines the wind field on a 1/2 to 1 km grid over the area of interest, taking the influence of orography and mixed roughness into consideration. For each grid point the obtained wind and the most appropriate - normally the nearest...

  5. Reduction of thermal models of buildings: improvement of techniques using meteorological influence models; Reduction de modeles thermiques de batiments: amelioration des techniques par modelisation des sollicitations meteorologiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dautin, S.

    1997-04-01

    This work concerns the modeling of thermal phenomena inside buildings for the evaluation of energy exploitation costs of thermal installations and for the modeling of thermal and aeraulic transient phenomena. This thesis comprises 7 chapters dealing with: (1) the thermal phenomena inside buildings and the CLIM2000 calculation code, (2) the ETNA and GENEC experimental cells and their modeling, (3) the techniques of model reduction tested (Marshall`s truncature, Michailesco aggregation method and Moore truncature) with their algorithms and their encoding in the MATRED software, (4) the application of model reduction methods to the GENEC and ETNA cells and to a medium size dual-zone building, (5) the modeling of meteorological influences classically applied to buildings (external temperature and solar flux), (6) the analytical expression of these modeled meteorological influences. The last chapter presents the results of these improved methods on the GENEC and ETNA cells and on a lower inertia building. These new methods are compared to classical methods. (J.S.) 69 refs.

  6. mr: A C++ library for the matching and running of the Standard Model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kniehl, Bernd A.; Pikelner, Andrey F.; Veretin, Oleg L.

    2016-09-01

    We present the C++ program library mr that allows us to reliably calculate the values of the running parameters in the Standard Model at high energy scales. The initial conditions are obtained by relating the running parameters in the MS bar renormalization scheme to observables at lower energies with full two-loop precision. The evolution is then performed in accordance with the renormalization group equations with full three-loop precision. Pure QCD corrections to the matching and running are included through four loops. We also provide a Mathematica interface for this program library. Catalogue identifier: AFAI_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AFAI_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: GNU General Public License, version 3 No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 517613 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 2358729 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: C++. Computer: IBM PC. Operating system: Linux, Mac OS X. RAM: 1 GB Classification: 11.1. External routines: TSIL [1], OdeInt [2], boost [3] Nature of problem: The running parameters of the Standard Model renormalized in the MS bar scheme at some high renormalization scale, which is chosen by the user, are evaluated in perturbation theory as precisely as possible in two steps. First, the initial conditions at the electroweak energy scale are evaluated from the Fermi constant GF and the pole masses of the W, Z, and Higgs bosons and the bottom and top quarks including the full two-loop threshold corrections. Second, the evolution to the high energy scale is performed by numerically solving the renormalization group evolution equations through three loops. Pure QCD corrections to the matching and running are included through four loops. Solution method: Numerical integration of analytic expressions Additional comments: Available for download from URL

  7. Applicability of a high-resolution meso-scale meteorological model to a near-field-scale atmospheric dispersion problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takimoto, Hiroshi; Michioka, Takenobu; Sato, Ayumu; Sada, Koichi

    2015-01-01

    This study examines the feasibility of numerical simulations using a meso-scale meteorological model (NuWFAS: Numerical Weather Forecasting and Analysis System) for a near-field-scale atmospheric dispersion problem. A series of observation data from a field tracer experiment was used for the validation of the model. In the experiments, the tracer was released from a tower at a height of 95 m. The receptors were located on the arc lines with distances from the source of 400, 750, 1500, and 3000 m. The numerical simulations were implemented with two different minimum spatial resolutions of 100 m and 300 m. The meteorological fields were reproduced with a reasonable accuracy, showing the less dependency on the mesh sizes of the simulation. The dispersion fields were also less dependent on the spatial resolutions except for the stable atmospheric conditions. In stable conditions, the smaller spatial resolution leads to the higher surface concentrations due to the larger turbulent diffusions. In most cases, the predicted surface concentrations agreed with the observation within the factor of ten. However, the simulation tends to underestimate the surface concentrations in stable conditions, whereas it overestimates in unstable conditions. Our study revealed that the limitation of the model in estimating the turbulent diffusion coefficients for thermally stratified conditions is the one cause of these trends. The current model underestimates the influences of atmospheric stability, which is one of the most important factors for the near-field-scale atmospheric dispersion. (author)

  8. Exploiting CMS data popularity to model the evolution of data management for Run-2 and beyond

    CERN Document Server

    Bonacorsi, D; Giordano, D; Girone, M; Neri, M; Magini, N; Kuznetsov, V; Wildish, T

    2015-01-01

    During the LHC Run-1 data taking, all experiments collected large data volumes from proton-proton and heavy-ion collisions. The collisions data, together with massive volumes of simulated data, were replicated in multiple copies, transferred among various Tier levels, transformed/slimmed in format/content. These data were then accessed (both locally and remotely) by large groups of distributed analysis communities exploiting the WorldWide LHC Computing Grid infrastructure and services. While efficient data placement strategies - together with optimal data redistribution and deletions on demand - have become the core of static versus dynamic data management projects, little effort has so far been invested in understanding the detailed data-access patterns which surfaced in Run-1. These patterns, if understood, can be used as input to simulation of computing models at the LHC, to optimise existing systems by tuning their behaviour, and to explore next-generation CPU/storage/network co-scheduling solutions. This...

  9. Using an integrated hydrological model to estimate the usefulness of meteorological drought indices in a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. von Gunten

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Droughts are serious natural hazards, especially in semi-arid regions. They are also difficult to characterize. Various summary metrics representing the dryness level, denoted drought indices, have been developed to quantify droughts. They typically lump meteorological variables and can thus directly be computed from the outputs of regional climate models in climate-change assessments. While it is generally accepted that drought risks in semi-arid climates will increase in the future, quantifying this increase using climate model outputs is a complex process that depends on the choice and the accuracy of the drought indices, among other factors. In this study, we compare seven meteorological drought indices that are commonly used to predict future droughts. Our goal is to assess the reliability of these indices to predict hydrological impacts of droughts under changing climatic conditions at the annual timescale. We simulate the hydrological responses of a small catchment in northern Spain to droughts in present and future climate, using an integrated hydrological model calibrated for different irrigation scenarios. We compute the correlation of meteorological drought indices with the simulated hydrological time series (discharge, groundwater levels, and water deficit and compare changes in the relationships between hydrological variables and drought indices. While correlation coefficients linked with a specific drought index are similar for all tested land uses and climates, the relationship between drought indices and hydrological variables often differs between present and future climate. Drought indices based solely on precipitation often underestimate the hydrological impacts of future droughts, while drought indices that additionally include potential evapotranspiration sometimes overestimate the drought effects. In this study, the drought indices with the smallest bias were the rainfall anomaly index, the reconnaissance drought index, and

  10. Singlet extensions of the standard model at LHC Run 2: benchmarks and comparison with the NMSSM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa, Raul [Centro de Física Teórica e Computacional, Faculdade de Ciências,Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, Edifício C8 1749-016 Lisboa (Portugal); Departamento de Física da Universidade de Aveiro,Campus de Santiago, 3810-183 Aveiro (Portugal); Mühlleitner, Margarete [Institute for Theoretical Physics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology,76128 Karlsruhe (Germany); Sampaio, Marco O.P. [Departamento de Física da Universidade de Aveiro,Campus de Santiago, 3810-183 Aveiro (Portugal); CIDMA - Center for Research Development in Mathematics and Applications,Campus de Santiago, 3810-183 Aveiro (Portugal); Santos, Rui [Centro de Física Teórica e Computacional, Faculdade de Ciências,Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, Edifício C8 1749-016 Lisboa (Portugal); ISEL - Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa,Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa, 1959-007 Lisboa (Portugal)

    2016-06-07

    The Complex singlet extension of the Standard Model (CxSM) is the simplest extension that provides scenarios for Higgs pair production with different masses. The model has two interesting phases: the dark matter phase, with a Standard Model-like Higgs boson, a new scalar and a dark matter candidate; and the broken phase, with all three neutral scalars mixing. In the latter phase Higgs decays into a pair of two different Higgs bosons are possible. In this study we analyse Higgs-to-Higgs decays in the framework of singlet extensions of the Standard Model (SM), with focus on the CxSM. After demonstrating that scenarios with large rates for such chain decays are possible we perform a comparison between the NMSSM and the CxSM. We find that, based on Higgs-to-Higgs decays, the only possibility to distinguish the two models at the LHC run 2 is through final states with two different scalars. This conclusion builds a strong case for searches for final states with two different scalars at the LHC run 2. Finally, we propose a set of benchmark points for the real and complex singlet extensions to be tested at the LHC run 2. They have been chosen such that the discovery prospects of the involved scalars are maximised and they fulfil the dark matter constraints. Furthermore, for some of the points the theory is stable up to high energy scales. For the computation of the decay widths and branching ratios we developed the Fortran code sHDECAY, which is based on the implementation of the real and complex singlet extensions of the SM in HDECAY.

  11. Assessing the Relationship Between Meteorological Parameters, Air Pollution And Cardiovascular Mortality of Mashhad City Based on Time Series Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morteza Hatami

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Epidemiological studies conducted in the past two decades indicate that air pollution causes increase in cardiovascular, breathing and chronic bronchitis disorders and even causes cardiovascular mortality. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between meteorological parameters, air pollution and cardiovascular mortality in the city of Mashhad in 2014 by a time series model. Data on mortality from cardiovascular disease, meteorological parameters and air pollution in 2014 were gathered from Paradises organization, meteorology organization and pollutant monitoring center, respectively. Then the relationship between these parameters was analyzed using correlation coefficient, generalized linear regression, time series models and comparison of means. The results of the study showed that the highest rate of cardiovascular mortality related to Sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and then PM2.5. So that each unit increase in SO2, NO2 and PM2.5 pollutants adds to the rate of cardiovascular mortality by 22.5, 2.9 and 0.69, respectively. Pressure, wind speed and rainfall have a significant association with mortality. So that each unit decrease in pressure and wind speed, increases the rate of cardiovascular mortality by 2.79 and 15.77, respectively. It was also found that in the case of one-unit increase in rainfall, the possibility of mortality from the mentioned disease goes up by 3.8 units. It was also found that one-year increase of the age increases the mortality caused by these diseases up to 0.57 percent. Furthermore, the highest rate of cardiovascular mortality related to cold periods of the year. Therefore, considering the growing trend of air pollution and its health effects on human health, performing actions and effective solutions is important in the field of controlling and reducing air pollution in Iranian metropolis including Mashhad.

  12. Capitalizing on Citizen Science Data for Validating Models and Generating Hypotheses Describing Meteorological Drivers of Mosquito-Borne Disease Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Paull, S.; Anyamba, A.; Soebiyanto, R. P.

    2017-12-01

    Temperature and precipitation are important drivers of mosquito population dynamics, and a growing set of models have been proposed to characterize these relationships. Validation of these models, and development of broader theories across mosquito species and regions could nonetheless be improved by comparing observations from a global dataset of mosquito larvae with satellite-based measurements of meteorological variables. Citizen science data can be particularly useful for two such aspects of research into the meteorological drivers of mosquito populations: i) Broad-scale validation of mosquito distribution models and ii) Generation of quantitative hypotheses regarding changes to mosquito abundance and phenology across scales. The recently released GLOBE Observer Mosquito Habitat Mapper (GO-MHM) app engages citizen scientists in identifying vector taxa, mapping breeding sites and decommissioning non-natural habitats, and provides a potentially useful new tool for validating mosquito ubiquity projections based on the analysis of remotely sensed environmental data. Our early work with GO-MHM data focuses on two objectives: validating citizen science reports of Aedes aegypti distribution through comparison with accepted scientific data sources, and exploring the relationship between extreme temperature and precipitation events and subsequent observations of mosquito larvae. Ultimately the goal is to develop testable hypotheses regarding the shape and character of this relationship between mosquito species and regions.

  13. Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauman, William; Crawford, Winifred; Barrett, Joe; Watson, Leela; Wheeler, Mark

    2010-01-01

    This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) activities for the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2010 (October - December 2009). A detailed project schedule is included in the Appendix. Included tasks are: (1) Peak Wind Tool for User Launch Commit Criteria (LCC), (2) Objective Lightning Probability Tool, Phase III, (3) Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting, Phase II, (4) Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool in Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS), (5) Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) Update and Maintainability, (5) Verify 12-km resolution North American Model (MesoNAM) Performance, and (5) Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) Graphical User Interface.

  14. The effect of treadmill running on passive avoidance learning in animal model of Alzheimer disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Nasrin; Alaei, Hojjatallah; Reisi, Parham; Radahmadi, Maryam

    2013-02-01

    Alzheimer's disease was known as a progressive neurodegenerative disorder in the elderly and is characterized by dementia and severe neuronal loss in the some regions of brain such as nucleus basalis magnocellularis. It plays an important role in the brain functions such as learning and memory. Loss of cholinergic neurons of nucleus basalis magnocellularis by ibotenic acid can commonly be regarded as a suitable model of Alzheimer's disease. Previous studies reported that exercise training may slow down the onset and progression of memory deficit in neurodegenerative disorders. This research investigates the effects of treadmill running on acquisition and retention time of passive avoidance deficits induced by ibotenic acid nucleus basalis magnocellularis lesion. MALE WISTAR RATS WERE RANDOMLY SELECTED AND DIVIDED INTO FIVE GROUPS AS FOLLOWS: Control, sham, Alzheimer, exercise before Alzheimer, and exercise groups. Treadmill running had a 21 day period and Alzheimer was induced by 5 μg/μl bilateral injection of ibotenic acid in nucleus basalis magnocellularis. Our results showed that ibotenic acid lesions significantly impaired passive avoidance acquisition (P exercise significantly (P < 0.001) improved passive avoidance learning in NBM-lesion rats. Treadmill running has a potential role in the prevention of learning and memory impairments in NBM-lesion rats.

  15. Exploring the Utility of Model-based Meteorology Data for Heat-Related Health Research and Surveillance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaidyanathan, A.; Yip, F.

    2017-12-01

    Context: Studies that have explored the impacts of environmental exposure on human health have mostly relied on data from weather stations, which can be limited in geographic scope. For this assessment, we: (1) evaluated the performance of the meteorological data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS) model with measurements from weather stations for public health and specifically for CDC's Environmental Public Health Tracking Program, and (2) conducted a health assessment to explore the relationship between heat exposure and mortality, and examined region-specific differences in heat-mortality (H-M) relationships when using model-based estimates in place of measurements from weather stations.Methods: Meteorological data from the NLDAS Phase 2 model was evaluated against measurements from weather stations. A time-series analysis was conducted, using both station- and model-based data, to generate H-M relationships for counties in the U.S. The county-specific risk information was pooled to characterize regional relationships for both station- and model-based data, which were then compared to identify degrees of overlap and discrepancies between results generated using the two data sources. Results: NLDAS-based heat metrics were in agreement with those generated using weather station data. In general, the H-M relationship tended to be non-linear and varied by region, particularly the heat index value at which the health risks become positively significant. However, there was a high degree of overlap between region-specific H-M relationships generated from weather stations and the NLDAS model.Interpretation: Heat metrics from NLDAS model are available for all counties in the coterminous U.S. from 1979-2015. These data can facilitate health research and surveillance activities exploring health impacts associated with long-term heat exposures at finer geographic scales.Conclusion: High spatiotemporal coverage of environmental health data

  16. Daily river flow prediction based on Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy Systems Modeling: A case of hydrological - meteorological measurements asymmetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bou-Fakhreddine, Bassam; Mougharbel, Imad; Faye, Alain; Abou Chakra, Sara; Pollet, Yann

    2018-03-01

    Accurate daily river flow forecast is essential in many applications of water resources such as hydropower operation, agricultural planning and flood control. This paper presents a forecasting approach to deal with a newly addressed situation where hydrological data exist for a period longer than that of meteorological data (measurements asymmetry). In fact, one of the potential solutions to resolve measurements asymmetry issue is data re-sampling. It is a matter of either considering only the hydrological data or the balanced part of the hydro-meteorological data set during the forecasting process. However, the main disadvantage is that we may lose potentially relevant information from the left-out data. In this research, the key output is a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy inference hybrid model that is implemented over the non re-sampled data. The introduced modeling approach must be capable of exploiting the available data efficiently with higher prediction efficiency relative to Constructive Fuzzy model trained over re-sampled data set. The study was applied to Litani River in the Bekaa Valley - Lebanon by using 4 years of rainfall and 24 years of river flow daily measurements. A Constructive Fuzzy System Model (C-FSM) and a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy System Model (TPC-FSM) are trained. Upon validating, the second model has shown a primarily competitive performance and accuracy with the ability to preserve a higher day-to-day variability for 1, 3 and 6 days ahead. In fact, for the longest lead period, the C-FSM and TPC-FSM were able of explaining respectively 84.6% and 86.5% of the actual river flow variation. Overall, the results indicate that TPC-FSM model has provided a better tool to capture extreme flows in the process of streamflow prediction.

  17. Overall Preference of Running Shoes Can Be Predicted by Suitable Perception Factors Using a Multiple Regression Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tay, Cheryl Sihui; Sterzing, Thorsten; Lim, Chen Yen; Ding, Rui; Kong, Pui Wah

    2017-05-01

    This study examined (a) the strength of four individual footwear perception factors to influence the overall preference of running shoes and (b) whether these perception factors satisfied the nonmulticollinear assumption in a regression model. Running footwear must fulfill multiple functional criteria to satisfy its potential users. Footwear perception factors, such as fit and cushioning, are commonly used to guide shoe design and development, but it is unclear whether running-footwear users are able to differentiate one factor from another. One hundred casual runners assessed four running shoes on a 15-cm visual analogue scale for four footwear perception factors (fit, cushioning, arch support, and stability) as well as for overall preference during a treadmill running protocol. Diagnostic tests showed an absence of multicollinearity between factors, where values for tolerance ranged from .36 to .72, corresponding to variance inflation factors of 2.8 to 1.4. The multiple regression model of these four footwear perception variables accounted for 77.7% to 81.6% of variance in overall preference, with each factor explaining a unique part of the total variance. Casual runners were able to rate each footwear perception factor separately, thus assigning each factor a true potential to improve overall preference for the users. The results also support the use of a multiple regression model of footwear perception factors to predict overall running shoe preference. Regression modeling is a useful tool for running-shoe manufacturers to more precisely evaluate how individual factors contribute to the subjective assessment of running footwear.

  18. Debris flow analysis with a one dimensional dynamic run-out model that incorporates entrained material

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luna, Byron Quan; Remaître, Alexandre; van Asch, Theo; Malet, Jean-Philippe; van Westen, Cees

    2010-05-01

    Estimating the magnitude and the intensity of rapid landslides like debris flows is fundamental to evaluate quantitatively the hazard in a specific location. Intensity varies through the travelled course of the flow and can be described by physical features such as deposited volume, velocities, height of the flow, impact forces and pressures. Dynamic run-out models are able to characterize the distribution of the material, its intensity and define the zone where the elements will experience an impact. These models can provide valuable inputs for vulnerability and risk calculations. However, most dynamic run-out models assume a constant volume during the motion of the flow, ignoring the important role of material entrained along its path. Consequently, they neglect that the increase of volume enhances the mobility of the flow and can significantly influence the size of the potential impact area. An appropriate erosion mechanism needs to be established in the analyses of debris flows that will improve the results of dynamic modeling and consequently the quantitative evaluation of risk. The objective is to present and test a simple 1D debris flow model with a material entrainment concept based on limit equilibrium considerations and the generation of excess pore water pressure through undrained loading of the in situ bed material. The debris flow propagation model is based on a one dimensional finite difference solution of a depth-averaged form of the Navier-Stokes equations of fluid motions. The flow is treated as a laminar one phase material, which behavior is controlled by a visco-plastic Coulomb-Bingham rheology. The model parameters are evaluated and the model performance is tested on a debris flow event that occurred in 2003 in the Faucon torrent (Southern French Alps).

  19. Hydrologic and water-quality characterization and modeling of the Chenoweth Run basin, Jefferson County, Kentucky

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Gary R.; Zarriello, Phillip J.; Shipp, Allison A.

    2001-01-01

    Rainfall, streamflow, and water-quality data collected in the Chenoweth Run Basin during February 1996?January 1998, in combination with the available historical sampling data, were used to characterize hydrologic conditions and to develop and calibrate a Hydrological Simulation Program?Fortran (HSPF) model for continuous simulation of rainfall, streamflow, suspended-sediment, and total-orthophosphate (TPO4) transport relations. Study results provide an improved understanding of basin hydrology and a hydrologic-modeling framework with analytical tools for use in comprehensive waterresource planning and management. Chenoweth Run Basin, encompassing 16.5 mi2 in suburban eastern Jefferson County, Kentucky, contains expanding urban development, particularly in the upper third of the basin. Historical water-quality problems have interfered with designated aquatic-life and recreation uses in the stream main channel (approximately 9 mi in length) and have been attributed to organic enrichment, nutrients, metals, and pathogens in urban runoff and wastewater inflows. Hydrologic conditions in Jefferson County are highly varied. In the Chenoweth Run Basin, as in much of the eastern third of the county, relief is moderately sloping to steep. Also, internal drainage in pervious areas is impeded by the shallow, fine-textured subsoils that contain abundant silts and clays. Thus, much of the precipitation here tends to move rapidly as overland flow and (or) shallow subsurface flow (interflow) to the stream channels. Data were collected at two streamflowgaging stations, one rain gage, and four waterquality- sampling sites in the basin. Precipitation, streamflow, and, consequently, constituent loads were above normal during the data-collection period of this study. Nonpoint sources contributed the largest portion of the sediment loads. However, the three wastewatertreatment plants (WWTP?s) were the source of the majority of estimated total phosphorus (TP) and TPO4 transport

  20. Long-Run Effects in Large Heterogeneous Panel Data Models with Cross-Sectionally Correlated Errors

    OpenAIRE

    Chudik, Alexander; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M Hashem; Raissi, Mehdi

    2016-01-01

    This paper develops a cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag (CS-DL) approach to the estimation of long-run effects in large dynamic heterogeneous panel data models with cross-sectionally dependent errors. The asymptotic distribution of the CS-DL estimator is derived under coefficient heterogeneity in the case where the time dimension (T) and the cross-section dimension (N) are both large. The CS-DL approach is compared with more standard panel data estimators that are based on autoregre...

  1. Long-run effects in large heterogenous panel data models with cross-sectionally correlated errors

    OpenAIRE

    Chudik, Alexander; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Raissi, Mehdi

    2015-01-01

    This paper develops a cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag (CS-DL) approach to the estimation of long-run effects in large dynamic heterogeneous panel data models with cross-sectionally dependent errors. The asymptotic distribution of the CS-DL estimator is derived under coefficient heterogeneity in the case where the time dimension (T) and the cross-section dimension (N) are both large. The CS-DL approach is compared with more standard panel data estimators that are based on autoregre...

  2. Meteorological Processors and Accessory Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surface and upper air data, provided by NWS, are important inputs for air quality models. Before these data are used in some of the EPA dispersion models, meteorological processors are used to manipulate the data.

  3. [A preliminary study on the effects of meteorological factors on intracerebral hemorrhage death using the BP neural network model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Han-lu; Lan, Li; Qiao, Dong-ju; Zhao, Na; Yang, Jia-qi; Shao, Bing; Jiao, Zhe; Li, Hang; Wang, Bin-you

    2012-09-01

    Using the Back Propagation (BP) Neural Network Model to discover the relationship between meteorological factors and mortality of intracerebral hemorrhage, to provide evidence for developing an intracerebral hemorrhage prevention and control program, in Harbin. Based on the characteristics of BP neural network, a neural network Toolbox of MATLAB 7.0 software was used to build Meteorological data of 2007 - 2009 with intracerebral hemorrhage mortality to predict the effect of BP neural network model, and to compare with the traditional multivariate linear regression model. Datas from the multivariate linear regression indicated that the cerebral hemorrhage death mortality had a negative correlation with maximum temperature and minimum humidity while having a positive correlation with the average relative humidity and the hours of sunshine. The linear correlation coefficient of intracerebral hemorrhage mortality was 0.7854, with mean absolute percentage (MAPE) as 0.21, mean square error (MSE) as 0.22, mean absolute error (MAE) as 0.19. The accuracy of forecasting was 81.31% with an average error rate as 0.19. The Fitting results of BP neural network model showed that non-linear correlation coefficient of intracerebral hemorrhage mortality was 0.7967, with MAPE as 0.19, MSE as 0.21, MAE as 0.18. The forecasting accuracy was 82.53% with the average error rate as 0.17. The BP neural network model showed a higher forecasting accuracy when compared to the multiple linear regression model on intracerebral hemorrhage mortality, using the data of 2010's.

  4. A comparative study of the response of modeled non-drizzling stratocumulus to meteorological and aerosol perturbations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Petters

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The impact of changes in aerosol and cloud droplet concentration (Na and Nd on the radiative forcing of stratocumulus-topped boundary layers (STBLs has been widely studied. How these impacts compare to those due to variations in meteorological context has not been investigated in a systematic fashion for non-drizzling overcast stratocumulus. In this study we examine the impact of observed variations in meteorological context and aerosol state on daytime, non-drizzling overcast stratiform evolution, and determine how resulting changes in cloud properties compare. Using large-eddy simulation (LES we create a model base case of daytime southeast Pacific coastal stratocumulus, spanning a portion of the diurnal cycle (early morning to near noon and constrained by observations taken during the VOCALS (VAMOS Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Study field campaign. We perturb aerosol and meteorological properties around this base case to investigate the stratocumulus response. We determine perturbations in the cloud top jumps in potential temperature θ and total water mixing ratio qt from ECMWF Re-analysis Interim data, and use a set of Nd values spanning the observable range. To determine the cloud response to these meteorological and aerosol perturbations, we compute changes in liquid water path (LWP, bulk optical depth (τ and cloud radiative forcing (CRF. We find that realistic variations in the thermodynamic jump properties can elicit a response in the cloud properties of τ and shortwave (SW CRF that are on the same order of magnitude as the response found due to realistic changes in aerosol state (i.e Nd. In response to increases in Nd, the cloud layer in the base case thinned due to increases in evaporative cooling and entrainment rate. This cloud thinning somewhat mitigates the increase in τ resulting from increases in Nd. On the other hand, variations in θ and qt jumps did not substantially modify Nd. The cloud layer thickens in response to an increase

  5. Finite element modelling of Plantar Fascia response during running on different surface types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razak, A. H. A.; Basaruddin, K. S.; Salleh, A. F.; Rusli, W. M. R.; Hashim, M. S. M.; Daud, R.

    2017-10-01

    Plantar fascia is a ligament found in human foot structure located beneath the skin of human foot that functioning to stabilize longitudinal arch of human foot during standing and normal gait. To perform direct experiment on plantar fascia seems very difficult since the structure located underneath the soft tissue. The aim of this study is to develop a finite element (FE) model of foot with plantar fascia and investigate the effect of the surface hardness on biomechanical response of plantar fascia during running. The plantar fascia model was developed using Solidworks 2015 according to the bone structure of foot model that was obtained from Turbosquid database. Boundary conditions were set out based on the data obtained from experiment of ground reaction force response during running on different surface hardness. The finite element analysis was performed using Ansys 14. The results found that the peak of stress and strain distribution were occur on the insertion of plantar fascia to bone especially on calcaneal area. Plantar fascia became stiffer with increment of Young’s modulus value and was able to resist more loads. Strain of plantar fascia was decreased when Young’s modulus increased with the same amount of loading.

  6. Building and Running the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Model in a Quality Environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D.A. Kalinich; K.P. Lee; J.A. McNeish

    2005-01-01

    A Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) model has been developed to support the Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for the Yucca Mountain High-Level Waste Repository. The TSPA model forecasts repository performance over a 20,000-year simulation period. It has a high degree of complexity due to the complexity of its underlying process and abstraction models. This is reflected in the size of the model (a 27,000 element GoldSim file), its use of dynamic-linked libraries (14 DLLs), the number and size of its input files (659 files totaling 4.7 GB), and the number of model input parameters (2541 input database entries). TSPA model development and subsequent simulations with the final version of the model were performed to a set of Quality Assurance (QA) procedures. Due to the complexity of the model, comments on previous TSPAs, and the number of analysts involved (22 analysts in seven cities across four time zones), additional controls for the entire life-cycle of the TSPA model, including management, physical, model change, and input controls were developed and documented. These controls did not replace the QA. procedures, rather they provided guidance for implementing the requirements of the QA procedures with the specific intent of ensuring that the model development process and the simulations performed with the final version of the model had sufficient checking, traceability, and transparency. Management controls were developed to ensure that only management-approved changes were implemented into the TSPA model and that only management-approved model runs were performed. Physical controls were developed to track the use of prototype software and preliminary input files, and to ensure that only qualified software and inputs were used in the final version of the TSPA model. In addition, a system was developed to name, file, and track development versions of the TSPA model as well as simulations performed with the final version of the model

  7. Meteorological conditions associated to high sublimation amounts in semiarid high-elevation Andes decrease the performance of empirical melt models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayala, Alvaro; Pellicciotti, Francesca; MacDonell, Shelley; McPhee, James; Burlando, Paolo

    2015-04-01

    Empirical melt (EM) models are often preferred to surface energy balance (SEB) models to calculate melt amounts of snow and ice in hydrological modelling of high-elevation catchments. The most common reasons to support this decision are that, in comparison to SEB models, EM models require lower levels of meteorological data, complexity and computational costs. However, EM models assume that melt can be characterized by means of a few index variables only, and their results strongly depend on the transferability in space and time of the calibrated empirical parameters. In addition, they are intrinsically limited in accounting for specific process components, the complexity of which cannot be easily reconciled with the empirical nature of the model. As an example of an EM model, in this study we use the Enhanced Temperature Index (ETI) model, which calculates melt amounts using air temperature and the shortwave radiation balance as index variables. We evaluate the performance of the ETI model on dry high-elevation sites where sublimation amounts - that are not explicitly accounted for the EM model - represent a relevant percentage of total ablation (1.1 to 8.7%). We analyse a data set of four Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), which were collected during the ablation season 2013-14, at elevations between 3466 and 4775 m asl, on the glaciers El Tapado, San Francisco, Bello and El Yeso, which are located in the semiarid Andes of central Chile. We complement our analysis using data from past studies in Juncal Norte Glacier (Chile) and Haut Glacier d'Arolla (Switzerland), during the ablation seasons 2008-09 and 2006, respectively. We use the results of a SEB model, applied to each study site, along the entire season, to calibrate the ETI model. The ETI model was not designed to calculate sublimation amounts, however, results show that their ability is low also to simulate melt amounts at sites where sublimation represents larger percentages of total ablation. In fact, we

  8. Hydrological Modeling in the Bull Run Watershed in Support of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nijssen, B.; Chiao, T. H.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Vano, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    Hydrologic models with varying complexities and structures are commonly used to evaluate the impact of climate change on future hydrology. While the uncertainties in future climate projections are well documented, uncertainties in streamflow projections associated with hydrologic model structure and parameter estimation have received less attention. In this study, we implemented and calibrated three hydrologic models (the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC)) for the Bull Run watershed in northern Oregon using consistent data sources and best practice calibration protocols. The project was part of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) project with the Portland Water Bureau (PWB) under the umbrella of the Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA). Ultimately PWB would use the model evaluation to select a model to perform in-house climate change analysis for Bull Run Watershed. This presentation focuses on the experimental design of the comparison project, project findings and the collaboration between the team at the University of Washington and at PWB. After calibration, the three models showed similar capability to reproduce seasonal and inter-annual variations in streamflow, but differed in their ability to capture extreme events. Furthermore, the annual and seasonal hydrologic sensitivities to changes in climate forcings differed among models, potentially attributable to different model representations of snow and vegetation processes.

  9. Exploiting CMS data popularity to model the evolution of data management for Run-2 and beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonacorsi, D; Neri, M; Boccali, T; Giordano, D; Girone, M; Magini, N; Kuznetsov, V; Wildish, T

    2015-01-01

    During the LHC Run-1 data taking, all experiments collected large data volumes from proton-proton and heavy-ion collisions. The collisions data, together with massive volumes of simulated data, were replicated in multiple copies, transferred among various Tier levels, transformed/slimmed in format/content. These data were then accessed (both locally and remotely) by large groups of distributed analysis communities exploiting the WorldWide LHC Computing Grid infrastructure and services. While efficient data placement strategies - together with optimal data redistribution and deletions on demand - have become the core of static versus dynamic data management projects, little effort has so far been invested in understanding the detailed data-access patterns which surfaced in Run-1. These patterns, if understood, can be used as input to simulation of computing models at the LHC, to optimise existing systems by tuning their behaviour, and to explore next-generation CPU/storage/network co-scheduling solutions. This is of great importance, given that the scale of the computing problem will increase far faster than the resources available to the experiments, for Run-2 and beyond. Studying data-access patterns involves the validation of the quality of the monitoring data collected on the “popularity of each dataset, the analysis of the frequency and pattern of accesses to different datasets by analysis end-users, the exploration of different views of the popularity data (by physics activity, by region, by data type), the study of the evolution of Run-1 data exploitation over time, the evaluation of the impact of different data placement and distribution choices on the available network and storage resources and their impact on the computing operations. This work presents some insights from studies on the popularity data from the CMS experiment. We present the properties of a range of physics analysis activities as seen by the data popularity, and make recommendations for

  10. Green River air quality model development: meteorological and tracer data, July/August 1982 field study in Brush Valley, Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whiteman, C.D.; Lee, R.N.; Orgill, M.M.; Zak, B.D.

    1984-06-01

    Meteorological and atmospheric tracer studies were conducted during a 3-week period in July and August of 1982 in the Brush Creek Valley of northwestern Colorado. The objective of the field experiments was to obtain data to evaluate a model, called VALMET, developed at PNL to predict dispersion of air pollutants released from an elevated stack located within a deep mountain valley in the post-sunrise temperature inversion breakup period. Three tracer experiments were conducted in the valley during the 2-week period. In these experiments, sulfur hexafluoride (SF/sub 6/) was released from a height of approximately 100 m, beginning before sunrise and continuing until the nocturnal down-valley winds reversed several hours after sunrise. Dispersion of the sulfur hexafluoride after release was evaluated by measuring SF/sub 6/ concentrations in ambient air samples taken from sampling devices operated within the valley up to about 8 km down valley from the source. An instrumented research aircraft was also used to measure concentrations in and above the valley. Tracer samples were collected using a network of radio-controlled bag sampling stations, two manually operated gas chromatographs, a continuous SF/sub 6/ monitor, and a vertical SF/sub 6/ profiler. In addition, basic meteorological data were collected during the tracer experiments. Frequent profiles of vertical wind and temperature structure were obtained with tethered balloons operated at the release site and at a site 7.7 km down the valley from the release site. 10 references, 63 figures, 50 tables.

  11. Seasonal Multifactor Modelling of Weighted-Mean Temperature for Ground-Based GNSS Meteorology in Hunan, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, radiosonde observations during the period of 2012-2013 from three stations in the Hunan region, China, were used to establish regional Tm models (RTMs that are a fitting function of multiple meteorological factors (Ts, Es, and Ps. One-factor, two-factor, and three-factor RTMs were assessed by comparing their Tm against the radiosonde-derived Tm (as the truth during the period of 2013-2014. Statistical results showed that the bias and RMS of the one-factor RTM, in comparison to the BTM result, were reduced by 88% and 28%, respectively. The two-factor and three-factor RTMs showed similar accuracy and both outperformed the one-factor RTM, with an improvement of 7% in RMS. The bias and RMS of all the four seasonal two-factor RTMs were smaller than the yearly two-factor RTM, with the improvements of 3%, 10%, 2%, and 3% in RMS. The improvement of the conversion factors in mean bias and RMS resulting from the seasonal two-factor RTM is 92% and 31%. The bias and RMS of the PWV resulting from the seasonal two-factor RTM are improved by 37% and 12%, respectively. Therefore, the seasonal two-factor RTMs are recommended for the research and applications of GNSS meteorology in the Hunan region, China.

  12. Debris flow run-out simulation and analysis using a dynamic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melo, Raquel; van Asch, Theo; Zêzere, José L.

    2018-02-01

    Only two months after a huge forest fire occurred in the upper part of a valley located in central Portugal, several debris flows were triggered by intense rainfall. The event caused infrastructural and economic damage, although no lives were lost. The present research aims to simulate the run-out of two debris flows that occurred during the event as well as to calculate via back-analysis the rheological parameters and the excess rain involved. Thus, a dynamic model was used, which integrates surface runoff, concentrated erosion along the channels, propagation and deposition of flow material. Afterwards, the model was validated using 32 debris flows triggered during the same event that were not considered for calibration. The rheological and entrainment parameters obtained for the most accurate simulation were then used to perform three scenarios of debris flow run-out on the basin scale. The results were confronted with the existing buildings exposed in the study area and the worst-case scenario showed a potential inundation that may affect 345 buildings. In addition, six streams where debris flow occurred in the past and caused material damage and loss of lives were identified.

  13. Impact of inherent meteorology uncertainty on air quality ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    It is well established that there are a number of different classifications and sources of uncertainties in environmental modeling systems. Air quality models rely on two key inputs, namely, meteorology and emissions. When using air quality models for decision making, it is important to understand how uncertainties in these inputs affect the simulated concentrations. Ensembles are one method to explore how uncertainty in meteorology affects air pollution concentrations. Most studies explore this uncertainty by running different meteorological models or the same model with different physics options and in some cases combinations of different meteorological and air quality models. While these have been shown to be useful techniques in some cases, we present a technique that leverages the initial condition perturbations of a weather forecast ensemble, namely, the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system to drive the four-dimensional data assimilation in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with a key focus being the response of ozone chemistry and transport. Results confirm that a sizable spread in WRF solutions, including common weather variables of temperature, wind, boundary layer depth, clouds, and radiation, can cause a relatively large range of ozone-mixing ratios. Pollutant transport can be altered by hundreds of kilometers over several days. Ozone-mixing ratios of the ensemble can vary as much as 10–20 ppb

  14. Errors and improvements in the use of archived meteorological data for chemical transport modeling: an analysis using GEOS-Chem v11-01 driven by GEOS-5 meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Karen; Keller, Christoph A.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Molod, Andrea M.; Eastham, Sebastian D.; Long, Michael S.

    2018-01-01

    Global simulations of atmospheric chemistry are commonly conducted with off-line chemical transport models (CTMs) driven by archived meteorological data from general circulation models (GCMs). The off-line approach has the advantages of simplicity and expediency, but it incurs errors due to temporal averaging in the meteorological archive and the inability to reproduce the GCM transport algorithms exactly. The CTM simulation is also often conducted at coarser grid resolution than the parent GCM. Here we investigate this cascade of CTM errors by using 222Rn-210Pb-7Be chemical tracer simulations off-line in the GEOS-Chem CTM at rectilinear 0.25° × 0.3125° (≈ 25 km) and 2° × 2.5° (≈ 200 km) resolutions and online in the parent GEOS-5 GCM at cubed-sphere c360 (≈ 25 km) and c48 (≈ 200 km) horizontal resolutions. The c360 GEOS-5 GCM meteorological archive, updated every 3 h and remapped to 0.25° × 0.3125°, is the standard operational product generated by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) and used as input by GEOS-Chem. We find that the GEOS-Chem 222Rn simulation at native 0.25° × 0.3125° resolution is affected by vertical transport errors of up to 20 % relative to the GEOS-5 c360 online simulation, in part due to loss of transient organized vertical motions in the GCM (resolved convection) that are temporally averaged out in the 3 h meteorological archive. There is also significant error caused by operational remapping of the meteorological archive from a cubed-sphere to a rectilinear grid. Decreasing the GEOS-Chem resolution from 0.25° × 0.3125° to 2° × 2.5° induces further weakening of vertical transport as transient vertical motions are averaged out spatially and temporally. The resulting 222Rn concentrations simulated by the coarse-resolution GEOS-Chem are overestimated by up to 40 % in surface air relative to the online c360 simulations and underestimated by up to 40 % in the upper troposphere, while the

  15. Predictions of dispersion and deposition of fallout from nuclear testing using the NOAA-HYSPLIT meteorological model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moroz, Brian E; Beck, Harold L; Bouville, André; Simon, Steven L

    2010-08-01

    The NOAA Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) was evaluated as a research tool to simulate the dispersion and deposition of radioactive fallout from nuclear tests. Model-based estimates of fallout can be valuable for use in the reconstruction of past exposures from nuclear testing, particularly where little historical fallout monitoring data are available. The ability to make reliable predictions about fallout deposition could also have significant importance for nuclear events in the future. We evaluated the accuracy of the HYSPLIT-predicted geographic patterns of deposition by comparing those predictions against known deposition patterns following specific nuclear tests with an emphasis on nuclear weapons tests conducted in the Marshall Islands. We evaluated the ability of the computer code to quantitatively predict the proportion of fallout particles of specific sizes deposited at specific locations as well as their time of transport. In our simulations of fallout from past nuclear tests, historical meteorological data were used from a reanalysis conducted jointly by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We used a systematic approach in testing the HYSPLIT model by simulating the release of a range of particle sizes from a range of altitudes and evaluating the number and location of particles deposited. Our findings suggest that the quantity and quality of meteorological data are the most important factors for accurate fallout predictions and that, when satisfactory meteorological input data are used, HYSPLIT can produce relatively accurate deposition patterns and fallout arrival times. Furthermore, when no other measurement data are available, HYSPLIT can be used to indicate whether or not fallout might have occurred at a given location and provide, at minimum, crude quantitative estimates of the magnitude of the deposited activity. A variety of

  16. Tsunami generation, propagation, and run-up with a high-order Boussinesq model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuhrman, David R.; Madsen, Per A.

    2009-01-01

    In this work we extend a high-order Boussinesq-type (finite difference) model, capable of simulating waves out to wavenumber times depth kh tsunamis. The extension is straight forward, requiring only...... show that the long-time (fully nonlinear) evolution of waves resulting from an upthrusted bottom can eventually result in true solitary waves, consistent with theoretical predictions. It is stressed, however, that the nonlinearity used far exceeds that typical of geophysical tsunamis in the open ocean....... The Boussinesq-type model is then used to simulate numerous tsunami-type events generated from submerged landslides, in both one and two horizontal dimensions. The results again compare well against previous experiments and/or numerical simulations. The new extension compliments recently developed run...

  17. The Trick Simulation Toolkit: A NASA/Opensource Framework for Running Time Based Physics Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penn, John M.

    2016-01-01

    The Trick Simulation Toolkit is a simulation development environment used to create high fidelity training and engineering simulations at the NASA Johnson Space Center and many other NASA facilities. Its purpose is to generate a simulation executable from a collection of user-supplied models and a simulation definition file. For each Trick-based simulation, Trick automatically provides job scheduling, numerical integration, the ability to write and restore human readable checkpoints, data recording, interactive variable manipulation, a run-time interpreter, and many other commonly needed capabilities. This allows simulation developers to concentrate on their domain expertise and the algorithms and equations of their models. Also included in Trick are tools for plotting recorded data and various other supporting utilities and libraries. Trick is written in C/C++ and Java and supports both Linux and MacOSX computer operating systems. This paper describes Trick's design and use at NASA Johnson Space Center.

  18. Minkowski space pion model inspired by lattice QCD running quark mass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clayton S. Mello

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The pion structure in Minkowski space is described in terms of an analytic model of the Bethe–Salpeter amplitude combined with Euclidean Lattice QCD results. The model is physically motivated to take into account the running quark mass, which is fitted to Lattice QCD data. The pion pseudoscalar vertex is associated to the quark mass function, as dictated by dynamical chiral symmetry breaking requirements in the limit of vanishing current quark mass. The quark propagator is analyzed in terms of a spectral representation, and it shows a violation of the positivity constraints. The integral representation of the pion Bethe–Salpeter amplitude is also built. The pion space-like electromagnetic form factor is calculated with a quark electromagnetic current, which satisfies the Ward–Takahashi identity to ensure current conservation. The results for the form factor and weak decay constant are found to be consistent with the experimental data.

  19. A Mesoscale Meteorological Model of Modified Land Cover to the Effect of Urban Heat Island in Jakarta, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yopi Ilhamsyah

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available A mesoscale meteorological model of modified land cover to the effect of urban heat island (UHI in Jakarta was done. Although higher temperature in the city has been generally known, factors and issues that result in the increase of temperature particularly nighttime temperature over the city, however, are not well-understood. Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, is encountering urbanization problems foremost. The increasing demand of housing as well as rapid development of sky crapper building, market places and highway diminishes the vegetation which in turn trap heat in the troposphere throughout the year, particularly during dry season on June-August. The fifth-generation mesoscale meteorological model (MM5 was employed in the study. The model involves medium range forecast planetary boundary layer (MRF PBL scheme and land surface with two following parameters: i.e. roughness length over land and thermal inertia of land. These two parameters are chosen to enhance the characteristics of land surface. The simulation was carried out for 3 days on August 5-7, 2004 during dry season. The results showed that the simulation of surface temperature done by MM5 modified land cover described a good comparison to that of weather observation data. As a result, the effect of UHI was also well-observed during day-time. In addition, MM5 modified land cover simulation also illustrated a well-development of sea-breeze and country-breeze during mid-day and nighttime, respectively. However, long-term simulation is still required. Thus, daily diurnal cycles of air temperature and their differences can be well-observed in detail.

  20. Modelling of flexi-coil springs with rubber-metal pads in a locomotive running gear

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michálek T.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, flexi-coil springs are commonly used in the secondary suspension stage of railway vehicles. Lateral stiffness of these springs is influenced by means of their design parameters (number of coils, height, mean diameter of coils, wire diameter etc. and it is often suitable to modify this stiffness in such way, that the suspension shows various lateral stiffness in different directions (i.e., longitudinally vs. laterally in the vehicle-related coordinate system. Therefore, these springs are often supplemented with some kind of rubber-metal pads. This paper deals with modelling of the flexi-coil springs supplemented with tilting rubber-metal tilting pads applied in running gear of an electric locomotive as well as with consequences of application of that solution of the secondary suspension from the point of view of the vehicle running performance. This analysis is performed by means of multi-body simulations and the description of lateral stiffness characteristics of the springs is based on results of experimental measurements of these characteristics performed in heavy laboratories of the Jan Perner Transport Faculty of the University of Pardubice.

  1. Hippocampal serotonin-1A receptor function in a mouse model of anxiety induced by long-term voluntary wheel running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuss, Johannes; Vogt, Miriam A; Weber, Klaus-Josef; Burke, Teresa F; Gass, Peter; Hensler, Julie G

    2013-10-01

    We have recently demonstrated that, in C57/Bl6 mice, long-term voluntary wheel running is anxiogenic, and focal hippocampal irradiation prevents the increase in anxiety-like behaviors and neurobiological changes in the hippocampus induced by wheel running. Evidence supports a role of hippocampal 5-HT1A receptors in anxiety. Therefore, we investigated hippocampal binding and function of 5-HT1A receptors in this mouse model of anxiety. Four weeks of voluntary wheel running resulted in hippocampal subregion-specific changes in 5-HT1A receptor binding sites and function, as measured by autoradiography of [(3) H] 8-hydroxy-2-(di-n-propylamino)tetralin binding and agonist-stimulated binding of [(35) S]GTPγS to G proteins, respectively. In the dorsal CA1 region, 5-HT1A receptor binding and function were not altered by wheel running or irradiation. In the dorsal dentate gyrus and CA2/3 region, 5-HT1A receptor function was decreased by not only running but also irradiation. In the ventral pyramidal layer, wheel running resulted in a decrease of 5-HT1A receptor function, which was prevented by irradiation. Neither irradiation nor wheel running affected 5-HT1A receptors in medial prefrontal cortex or in the dorsal or median raphe nuclei. Our data indicate that downregulation of 5-HT1A receptor function in ventral pyramidal layer may play a role in anxiety-like behavior induced by wheel running. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Airline meteorological requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler, C. L.; Pappas, J.

    1985-01-01

    A brief review of airline meteorological/flight planning is presented. The effects of variations in meteorological parameters upon flight and operational costs are reviewed. Flight path planning through the use of meteorological information is briefly discussed.

  3. Development of the Next Generation Air Quality Modeling System (20th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    A next generation air quality modeling system is being developed at the U.S. EPA to enable modeling of air quality from global to regional to (eventually) local scales. We envision that the system will have three configurations: 1. Global meteorology with seamless mesh refinemen...

  4. Near-Surface Meteorology During the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Evaluation of Reanalyses and Global Climate Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Boer, G.; Shupe, M.D.; Caldwell, P.M.; Bauer, Susanne E.; Persson, O.; Boyle, J.S.; Kelley, M.; Klein, S.A.; Tjernstrom, M.

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three atmospheric reanalyses (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)- Interim reanalysis, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, and NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis) and two global climate models (CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model 5) and NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large-scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms, are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, has demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the benefits gained by evaluating individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms that result in the best net energy budget.

  5. Towards a numerical run-out model for quick-clay slides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Issler, Dieter; L'Heureux, Jean-Sébastien; Cepeda, José M.; Luna, Byron Quan; Gebreslassie, Tesfahunegn A.

    2015-04-01

    Highly sensitive glacio-marine clays occur in many relatively low-lying areas near the coasts of eastern Canada, Scandinavia and northern Russia. If the load exceeds the yield stress of these clays, they quickly liquefy, with a reduction of the yield strength and the viscosity by several orders of magnitude. Leaching, fluvial erosion, earthquakes and man-made overloads, by themselves or combined, are the most frequent triggers of quick-clay slides, which are hard to predict and can attain catastrophic dimensions. The present contribution reports on two preparatory studies that were conducted with a view to creating a run-out model tailored to the characteristics of quick-clay slides. One study analyzed the connections between the morphological and geotechnical properties of more than 30 well-documented Norwegian quick-clay slides and their run-out behavior. The laboratory experiments by Locat and Demers (1988) suggest that the behavior of quick clays can be reasonably described by universal relations involving the liquidity index, plastic index, remolding energy, salinity and sensitivity. However, these tests should be repeated with Norwegian clays and analyzed in terms of a (shear-thinning) Herschel-Bulkley fluid rather than a Bingham fluid because the shear stress appears to grow in a sub-linear fashion with the shear rate. Further study is required to understand the discrepancy between the material parameters obtained in laboratory tests of material from observed slides and in back-calculations of the same slides with the simple model by Edgers & Karlsrud (1982). The second study assessed the capability of existing numerical flow models to capture the most important aspects of quick-clay slides by back-calculating three different, well documented events in Norway: Rissa (1978), Finneidfjord (1996) and Byneset (2012). The numerical codes were (i) BING, a quasi-two-dimensional visco-plastic model, (ii) DAN3D (2009 version), and (iii) MassMov2D. The latter two are

  6. Analysis of the traditional vehicle’s running cost and the electric vehicle’s running cost under car-following model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Tie-Qiao; Xu, Ke-Wei; Yang, Shi-Chun; Shang, Hua-Yan

    2016-03-01

    In this paper, we use car-following theory to study the traditional vehicle’s running cost and the electric vehicle’s running cost. The numerical results illustrate that the traditional vehicle’s running cost is larger than that of the electric vehicle and that the system’s total running cost drops with the increase of the electric vehicle’s proportion, which shows that the electric vehicle is better than the traditional vehicle from the perspective of the running cost.

  7. Development of a simulation model for compression ignition engine running with ignition improved blend

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudeshkumar Ponnusamy Moranahalli

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Department of Automobile Engineering, Anna University, Chennai, India. The present work describes the thermodynamic and heat transfer models used in a computer program which simulates the diesel fuel and ignition improver blend to predict the combustion and emission characteristics of a direct injection compression ignition engine fuelled with ignition improver blend using classical two zone approach. One zone consists of pure air called non burning zone and other zone consist of fuel and combustion products called burning zone. First law of thermodynamics and state equations are applied in each of the two zones to yield cylinder temperatures and cylinder pressure histories. Using the two zone combustion model the combustion parameters and the chemical equilibrium composition were determined. To validate the model an experimental investigation has been conducted on a single cylinder direct injection diesel engine fuelled with 12% by volume of 2- ethoxy ethanol blend with diesel fuel. Addition of ignition improver blend to diesel fuel decreases the exhaust smoke and increases the thermal efficiency for the power outputs. It was observed that there is a good agreement between simulated and experimental results and the proposed model requires low computational time for a complete run.

  8. A spatiotemporal dengue fever early warning model accounting for nonlinear associations with meteorological factors: a Bayesian maximum entropy approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chien, Lung-Chang

    2014-05-01

    Dengue fever has been identified as one of the most widespread vector-borne diseases in tropical and sub-tropical. In the last decade, dengue is an emerging infectious disease epidemic in Taiwan especially in the southern area where have annually high incidences. For the purpose of disease prevention and control, an early warning system is urgently needed. Previous studies have showed significant relationships between climate variables, in particular, rainfall and temperature, and the temporal epidemic patterns of dengue cases. However, the transmission of the dengue fever is a complex interactive process that mostly understated the composite space-time effects of dengue fever. This study proposes developing a one-week ahead warning system of dengue fever epidemics in the southern Taiwan that considered nonlinear associations between weekly dengue cases and meteorological factors across space and time. The early warning system based on an integration of distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. The study identified the most significant meteorological measures including weekly minimum temperature and maximum 24-hour rainfall with continuous 15-week lagged time to dengue cases variation under condition of uncertainty. Subsequently, the combination of nonlinear lagged effects of climate variables and space-time dependence function is implemented via a Bayesian framework to predict dengue fever occurrences in the southern Taiwan during 2012. The result shows the early warning system is useful for providing potential outbreak spatio-temporal prediction of dengue fever distribution. In conclusion, the proposed approach can provide a practical disease control tool for environmental regulators seeking more effective strategies for dengue fever prevention.

  9. Analysis of CO in the tropical troposphere using Aura satellite data and the GEOS-Chem model: insights into transport characteristics of the GEOS meteorological products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junhua Liu

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available We use the GEOS-Chem chemistry-transport model (CTM to interpret the spatial and temporal variations of tropical tropospheric CO observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS and the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES. In so doing, we diagnose and evaluate transport in the GEOS-4 and GEOS-5 assimilated meteorological fields that drive the model, with a particular focus on vertical mixing at the end of the dry season when convection moves over the source regions. The results indicate that over South America, deep convection in both GEOS-4 and GEOS-5 decays at too low an altitude early in the wet season, and the source of CO from isoprene in the model (MEGAN v2.1 is too large, causing a lag in the model's seasonal maximum of CO compared to MLS CO in the upper troposphere (UT. TES and MLS data reveal problems with excessive transport of CO to the eastern equatorial Pacific and lofting in the ITCZ in August and September, particularly in GEOS-4. Over southern Africa, GEOS-4 and GEOS-5 simulations match the phase of the observed CO variation from the lower troposphere (LT to the UT fairly well, although the magnitude of the seasonal maximum is underestimated considerably due to low emissions in the model. A sensitivity run with increased emissions leads to improved agreement with observed CO in the LT and middle troposphere (MT, but the amplitude of the seasonal variation is too high in the UT in GEOS-4. Difficulty in matching CO in the LT and UT implies there may be overly vigorous vertical mixing in GEOS-4 early in the wet season. Both simulations and observations show a time lag between the peak in fire emissions (July and August and in CO (September and October. We argue that it is caused by the prevailing subsidence in the LT until convection moves south in September, as well as the low sensitivity of TES data in the LT over the African Plateau. The MLS data suggest that too much CO has been transported from fires in northern Africa to the UT

  10. Evaluation of surface and upper air fine scale WRF meteorological modeling of the May and June 2010 CalNex period in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Kirk R.; Misenis, Chris; Obland, Michael D.; Ferrare, Richard A.; Scarino, Amy J.; Kelly, James T.

    2013-12-01

    Prognostic meteorological models such as Mesoscale Model (MM5) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) are often used to supply inputs for retrospective air quality modeling done to support ozone and PM2.5 emission control demonstrations. In this study, multiple configurations of the WRF model are applied at 4 km grid resolution and compared to routine meteorological measurements and special study measurements taken in California during May-June 2010. One configuration is routinely used by US EPA to generate meteorological inputs for regulatory air quality modeling and another that is used by research scientists for evaluating meteorology and air quality. Mixing layer heights estimated from airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) measurements of aerosol backscatter are compared with WRF modeled planetary boundary layer (PBL) height estimates. Both WRF configurations generally capture the variability in HSRL mixing height between days, hour-to-hour, and between surface features such as terrain and land-water interfaces. Fractional bias over all flights and both model configurations range from -38% to 32% and fractional error ranges from 22% to 58%. Surface and upper level measurements of temperature, water mixing ratio, and winds are generally well characterized by both WRF model configurations, often more closely matching surface observations than the input analysis data (12-NAM). The WRF model generally captures orographic and mesoscale meteorological features in the central Valley (bifurcation of wind flow from the San Francisco bay into the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys) and Los Angeles air basin (ocean-land flows) during this summer period.

  11. Impacts of weighting climate models for hydro-meteorological climate change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jie; Brissette, François P.; Lucas-Picher, Philippe; Caya, Daniel

    2017-06-01

    Weighting climate models is controversial in climate change impact studies using an ensemble of climate simulations from different climate models. In climate science, there is a general consensus that all climate models should be considered as having equal performance or in other words that all projections are equiprobable. On the other hand, in the impacts and adaptation community, many believe that climate models should be weighted based on their ability to better represent various metrics over a reference period. The debate appears to be partly philosophical in nature as few studies have investigated the impact of using weights in projecting future climate changes. The present study focuses on the impact of assigning weights to climate models for hydrological climate change studies. Five methods are used to determine weights on an ensemble of 28 global climate models (GCMs) adapted from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. Using a hydrological model, streamflows are computed over a reference (1961-1990) and future (2061-2090) periods, with and without post-processing climate model outputs. The impacts of using different weighting schemes for GCM simulations are then analyzed in terms of ensemble mean and uncertainty. The results show that weighting GCMs has a limited impact on both projected future climate in term of precipitation and temperature changes and hydrology in terms of nine different streamflow criteria. These results apply to both raw and post-processed GCM model outputs, thus supporting the view that climate models should be considered equiprobable.

  12. Prosthetic model, but not stiffness or height, affects the metabolic cost of running for athletes with unilateral transtibial amputations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Owen N; Taboga, Paolo; Grabowski, Alena M

    2017-07-01

    Running-specific prostheses enable athletes with lower limb amputations to run by emulating the spring-like function of biological legs. Current prosthetic stiffness and height recommendations aim to mitigate kinematic asymmetries for athletes with unilateral transtibial amputations. However, it is unclear how different prosthetic configurations influence the biomechanics and metabolic cost of running. Consequently, we investigated how prosthetic model, stiffness, and height affect the biomechanics and metabolic cost of running. Ten athletes with unilateral transtibial amputations each performed 15 running trials at 2.5 or 3.0 m/s while we measured ground reaction forces and metabolic rates. Athletes ran using three different prosthetic models with five different stiffness category and height combinations per model. Use of an Ottobock 1E90 Sprinter prosthesis reduced metabolic cost by 4.3 and 3.4% compared with use of Freedom Innovations Catapult [fixed effect (β) = -0.177; P < 0.001] and Össur Flex-Run (β = -0.139; P = 0.002) prostheses, respectively. Neither prosthetic stiffness ( P ≥ 0.180) nor height ( P = 0.062) affected the metabolic cost of running. The metabolic cost of running was related to lower peak (β = 0.649; P = 0.001) and stance average (β = 0.772; P = 0.018) vertical ground reaction forces, prolonged ground contact times (β = -4.349; P = 0.012), and decreased leg stiffness (β = 0.071; P < 0.001) averaged from both legs. Metabolic cost was reduced with more symmetric peak vertical ground reaction forces (β = 0.007; P = 0.003) but was unrelated to stride kinematic symmetry ( P ≥ 0.636). Therefore, prosthetic recommendations based on symmetric stride kinematics do not necessarily minimize the metabolic cost of running. Instead, an optimal prosthetic model, which improves overall biomechanics, minimizes the metabolic cost of running for athletes with unilateral transtibial amputations. NEW & NOTEWORTHY The metabolic cost of running for

  13. Drought Early Warning and Agro-Meteorological Risk Assessment using Earth Observation Rainfall Datasets and Crop Water Budget Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarnavsky, E.

    2016-12-01

    The water resources satisfaction index (WRSI) model is widely used in drought early warning and food security analyses, as well as in agro-meteorological risk management through weather index-based insurance. Key driving data for the model is provided from satellite-based rainfall estimates such as ARC2 and TAMSAT over Africa and CHIRPS globally. We evaluate the performance of these rainfall datasets for detecting onset and cessation of rainfall and estimating crop production conditions for the WRSI model. We also examine the sensitivity of the WRSI model to different satellite-based rainfall products over maize growing regions in Tanzania. Our study considers planting scenarios for short-, medium-, and long-growing cycle maize, and we apply these for 'regular' and drought-resistant maize, as well as with two different methods for defining the start of season (SOS). Simulated maize production estimates are compared against available reported production figures at the national and sub-national (province) levels. Strengths and weaknesses of the driving rainfall data, insights into the role of the SOS definition method, and phenology-based crop yield coefficient and crop yield reduction functions are discussed in the context of space-time drought characteristics. We propose a way forward for selecting skilled rainfall datasets and discuss their implication for crop production monitoring and the design and structure of weather index-based insurance products as risk transfer mechanisms implemented across scales for smallholder farmers to national programmes.

  14. Development and testing of a high-resolution model for tropospheric sulfate driven by observation-derived meteorology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benkovitz, C.M. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States). Environmental Chemistry Div.

    1994-05-01

    A high-resolution three-dimensional Eulerian transport and transformation model has been developed to simulate concentrations of tropospheric sulfate for specific times and locations; it was applied over the North Atlantic and adjacent continental regions during October and November, 1986. The model represents emissions of anthropogenic SO{sub 2} and sulfate and of biogenic sulfur species, horizontal and vertical transport, gas-phase oxidation of SO{sub 2} and dimethylsulfide, aqueous-phase oxidation of SO{sub 2}, and wet and dry deposition of SO{sub 2}, sulfate, and methanesulfonic acid (MSA). The meteorological driver is the 6-hour output from the forecast model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Calculated sulfate concentrations and column burdens, examined in detail for October 15 and October 22 at 6Z, are related to existing weather patterns. These results exhibit rich temporal and spatial structure; the characteristic (1/e) temporal autocorrelation time for the sulfate column burdens over the central North Atlantic averages 20 hours; 95% of the values were 25 hours or less. The characteristic distance of spatial autocorrelation over this region depends on direction and averages 1,600 km; with 10{sup th} percentile value of 400 km and 90{sup th} percentile value of 1,700 km. Daily average model sulfate concentrations at the lowest vertical accurately represent the spatial variability, temporal episodicity, and absolute magnitudes of surface concentrations measured by monitoring stations in Europe, Canada and Barbados.

  15. Short-run analysis of fiscal policy and the current account in a finite horizon model

    OpenAIRE

    Heng-fu Zou

    1995-01-01

    This paper utilizes a technique developed by Judd to quantify the short-run effects of fiscal policies and income shocks on the current account in a small open economy. It is found that: (1) a future increase in government spending improves the short-run current account; (2) a future tax increase worsens the short-run current account; (3) a present increase in the government spending worsens the short-run current account dollar by dollar, while a present increase in the income improves the cu...

  16. RG running in a minimal UED model in light of recent LHC Higgs mass bounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blennow, Mattias; Melbéus, Henrik; Ohlsson, Tommy; Zhang, He

    2012-01-01

    We study how the recent ATLAS and CMS Higgs mass bounds affect the renormalization group running of the physical parameters in universal extra dimensions. Using the running of the Higgs self-coupling constant, we derive bounds on the cutoff scale of the extra-dimensional theory itself. We show that the running of physical parameters, such as the fermion masses and the CKM mixing matrix, is significantly restricted by these bounds. In particular, we find that the running of the gauge couplings cannot be sufficient to allow gauge unification at the cutoff scale.

  17. Stereological Study on the Positive Effect of Running Exercise on the Capillaries in the Hippocampus in a Depression Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linmu Chen

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Running exercise is an effective method to improve depressive symptoms when combined with drugs. However, the underlying mechanisms are not fully clear. Cerebral blood flow perfusion in depressed patients is significantly lower in the hippocampus. Physical activity can achieve cerebrovascular benefits. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of running exercise on capillaries in the hippocampal CA1 and dentate gyrus (DG regions. The chronic unpredictable stress (CUS depression model was used in this study. CUS rats were given 4 weeks of running exercise from the fifth week to the eighth week (20 min every day from Monday to Friday each week. The sucrose consumption test was used to measure anhedonia. Furthermore, stereological methods were used to investigate the capillary changes among the control group, CUS/Standard group and CUS/Running group. Sucrose consumption significantly increased in the CUS/Running group. Running exercise has positive effects on the capillaries parameters in the hippocampal CA1 and DG regions, such as the total volume, total length and total surface area. These results demonstrated that capillaries are protected by running exercise in the hippocampal CA1 and DG might be one of the structural bases for the exercise-induced treatment of depression-like behavior. These results suggest that drugs and behavior influence capillaries and may be considered as a new means for depression treatment in the future.

  18. Combining meteorological radar and network of rain gauges data for space–time model development

    OpenAIRE

    Pastoriza, Vicente; Núñez Fernández, Adolfo; Machado, Fernando; Mariño, Perfecto; Pérez Fontán, Fernando; Fiebig, Uwe-Carsten

    2009-01-01

    Technological developments and the trend to go higher and higher in frequency give rise to the need for true space–time rain field models for testing the dynamics of fade countermeasures. There are many models that capture the spatial correlation of rain fields. Worth mentioning are those models based on cell ensembles. However, the rain rate fields created in this way need the introduction of the time variable to reproduce their dynamics. In this paper, we have concentrated on ad...

  19. Investigation of Multi-decadal Trends in Aerosol Direct Radiative Effects over North America using a Coupled Meteorology-Chemistry Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathur, R.; Pleim, J.; Wong, D.; Wei, C.; Xing, J.; Gan, M.; Yu, S.; Binkowski, F.

    2012-12-01

    While aerosol radiative effects have been recognized as some of the largest sources of uncertainty among the forcers of climate change, there has been little effort devoted to verification of the spatial and temporal variability of the magnitude and directionality of aerosol radiative forcing. A comprehensive investigation of the processes regulating aerosol distributions, their optical properties, and their radiative effects and verification of their simulated effects for past conditions relative to measurements is needed in order to build confidence in the estimates of the projected impacts arising from changes in both anthropogenic forcing and climate change. This study aims at addressing this issue through a systematic investigation of changes in anthropogenic emissions of SO2 and NOx over the past two decades in the United States, their impacts on anthropogenic aerosol loading in the North American troposphere, and subsequent impacts on regional radiation budgets. A newly developed 2-way coupled meteorology and air pollution model composed of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is being run for 20 years (1990 - 2010) on a 12 km resolution grid that covers most of North America including the entire conterminous US. During this period US emissions of SO2 and NOx have been reduced by about 66% and 50%, respectively, mainly due to Title IV of the U.S. Clean Air Act Amendments (CAA) that aimed to reduce emissions that contribute to acid deposition. A methodology is developed to consistently estimate emission inventories for the 20-year period accounting for air quality regulations as well as population trends, economic conditions, and technology changes in motor vehicles and electric power generation. The coupled WRF-CMAQ model includes detailed treatment of direct effects of aerosols on photolysis rates as well as on shortwave radiation and the direct effects of tropospheric ozone on the long

  20. Modeling SF{sub 6} plume dispersion in complex terrain and meteorology with a limited data set

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schalk, W.W. III

    1996-10-01

    Early actions of emergency responders during hazardous material releases are intended to assess contamination and potential public exposure. As measurements are collected, an integration of model calculations and measurements can assist to better understand the situation. This study applied a high resolution version of the operational 3-D numerical models used by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to a limited meteorological and tracer data set to assist in the interpretation of the dispersion pattern on a 140 km scale. The data set was collected from a tracer release during the morning surface inversion and transition period in the complex terrain of the Snake River Plain near Idaho Falls, Idaho in November 1993 by the United States Air Force. Sensitivity studies were conducted to determine model input parameters that best represented the study environment. These studies showed that mixing and boundary layer heights, atmospheric stability, and rawinsonde data are the most important model input parameters affecting wind field generation and tracer dispersion. Numerical models and limited measurement data were used to interpret dispersion patterns through the use of data analysis, model input determination, and sensitivity studies. Comparison of the best-estimate calculation to measurement data showed that model results compared well with the aircraft data, but had moderate success with the few surface measurements taken. The moderate success of the surface measurement comparison, may be due to limited downward mixing of the tracer as a result of the model resolution determined by the domain size selected to study the overall plume dispersion. 8 refs., 40 figs., 7 tabs.

  1. A Method for Evaluation of Model-Generated Vertical Profiles of Meteorological Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    precipitable water vapor (PWV) forecasts for use by the Southern European Observatory, it presented Approved for public release; distribution...Language NOHRSC National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center NWP numerical weather prediction PWV Precipitable Water Vapor RAOB radiosonde...Model is used for longwave and the Dudhia scheme for shortwave. The Noah land surface model is used to represent land surface processes. The pre

  2. Contribution of JMA to the WMO Technical Task Team on meteorological analyses for Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident and relevant atmospheric transport modeling at MRI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saito, Kazuo; Shimbori, Toshiki; Kato, Teruyuki; Kajino, Mizuo; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi T.; Tanaka, Taichu Y.; Maki, Takashi; Draxler, Roland; Hara, Tabito; Toyoda, Eizi; Honda, Yuki; Nagata, Kazuhiko; Fujita, Tsukasa; Sakamoto, Masami; Terada, Hiroaki; Chino, Masamichi

    2015-01-01

    The United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) was asked to produce a scientific report for the General Assembly on the levels and effects of radiation exposure caused by the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, and UNSCEAR requested the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to develop a set of meteorological analyses for assessing the atmospheric transport, dispersion, and deposition of radioactive materials. In response to UNSCEAR's request, the WMO's Commission for Basic Systems convened a technical task team of experts from five countries (Austria, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, and the United States) in November 2011. The primary aim of this team was to examine how the use of meteorological analyses could improve atmospheric transport, dispersion, and deposition model (ATDM) calculations. As the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center of the country in which the accident occurred, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) collaborated with the WMO Task Team by providing its mesoscale analysis based on operational four-dimensional variational data assimilation and radar/rain gauge-analyzed precipitation (RAP) data in the standard WMO format (GRIB2). To evaluate the quality of the meteorological analyses, the WMO Task Team conducted test simulations with their regional ATDMs and different meteorological analyses. JMA developed a regional ATDM for radionuclides by modifying its operational regional atmospheric transport model, which had been previously used for photochemical oxidant predictions and volcanic ashfall forecasts. The modified model (hereafter referred to as JMA-RATM) newly implemented dry deposition, wet scavenging, and gravitational settling of radionuclide aerosol particles. The preliminary and revised calculations of JMA-RATM were conducted with a horizontal concentration and deposition grid resolution of 5 km and a unit source emission rate, in accordance with the Task Team

  3. Seasonal modeling of hand, foot, and mouth disease as a function of meteorological variations in Chongqing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Pin; Zhao, Han; You, Fangxin; Zhou, Hailong; Goggins, William B.

    2017-08-01

    Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an enterovirus-induced infectious disease, mainly affecting children under 5 years old. Outbreaks of HFMD in recent years indicate the disease interacts with both the weather and season. This study aimed to investigate the seasonal association between HFMD and weather variation in Chongqing, China. Generalized additive models and distributed lag non-linear models based on a maximum lag of 14 days, with negative binomial distribution assumed to account for overdispersion, were constructed to model the association between reporting HFMD cases from 2009 to 2014 and daily mean temperature, relative humidity, total rainfall and sun duration, adjusting for trend, season, and day of the week. The year-round temperature and relative humidity, rainfall in summer, and sun duration in winter were all significantly associated with HFMD. An inverted-U relationship was found between mean temperature and HFMD above 19 °C in summer, with a maximum morbidity at 27 °C, while the risk increased linearly with the temperature in winter. A hockey-stick association was found for relative humidity in summer with increasing risks over 60%. Heavy rainfall, relative to no rain, was found to be associated with reduced HFMD risk in summer and 2 h of sunshine could decrease the risk by 21% in winter. The present study showed meteorological variables were differentially associated with HFMD incidence in two seasons. Short-term weather variation surveillance and forecasting could be employed as an early indicator for potential HFMD outbreaks.

  4. Combination of Deterministic and Probabilistic Meteorological Models to enhance Wind Farm Power Forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bremen, Lueder von

    2007-01-01

    Large-scale wind farms will play an important role in the future worldwide energy supply. However, with increasing wind power penetration all stakeholders on the electricity market will ask for more skilful wind power predictions regarding save grid integration and to increase the economic value of wind power. A Neural Network is used to calculate Model Output Statistics (MOS) for each individual forecast model (ECMWF and HIRLAM) and to model the aggregated power curve of the Middelgrunden offshore wind farm. We showed that the combination of two NWP models clearly outperforms the better single model. The normalized day-ahead RMSE forecast error for Middelgrunden can be reduced by 1% compared to single ECMWF. This is a relative improvement of 6%. For lead times >24h it is worthwhile to use a more sophisticated model combination approach than simple linear weighting. The investigated principle component regression is able to extract the uncorrelated information from two NWP forecasts. The spread of Ensemble Predictions is related to the skill of wind power forecasts. Simple contingency diagrams show that low spread corresponds is more often related to low forecast errors and high spread to large forecast errors

  5. Modeling detailed hydro-meteorological surfaces and runoff response in large diverse watersheds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrne, J.; Kienzle, S.W.; MacDonald, R.J.

    2008-01-01

    An understanding of local variability in climatic conditions over complex terrain is imperative to making accurate assessments of impacts from climate change on fresh water ecosystems (Daly, 2006). The derivation of representative spatial data in diverse environments poses a significant challenge to the modelling community. This presentation describes the current status of a long term ongoing hydro-climate model development program. We are developing a gridded hydroclimate dataset for diverse watersheds using SimGrid (Larson, 2008; Lapp et al., 2005; Sheppard, 1996), a model that applies the Mountain Climate Model (MTCLIM; Hungerford et al., 1989) to simulate hydro-climatic conditions over diverse terrain. The model uses GIS based terrain categories (TC) classified by slope, aspect, elevation, and soil water storage. SimGrid provides daily estimates of solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, snowpack and soil water storage over space. Earlier versions of the model have been applied in the St. Mary (Larson, 2008) and upper Oldman basins (Lapp et al., 2005), giving realistic estimates of hydro-climatic variables. The current study demonstrates improvements to the estimation of temperature, precipitation, snowpack, soil water storage and runoff from the basin. Soil water storage data for the upper drainage were derived with GIS and included in SimGrid to estimate soil water flux over the time period. These changes help improve the estimation of spatial climatic variability over the basin while accounting for topographical influence. In further work we will apply spatial hydro-climatic surfaces from the SimGrid model to assess the hydrologic response to environmental change for watersheds in Canada and beyond. (author)

  6. A scale model study of the effects of meteorological, soil, and house parameters on soil gas pressures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, L.J.

    1990-01-01

    To assess the contribution of various environmental parameters to the entry of Rn into basements, it is advantageous to simplify and control the important variables present in the field situation. A scale model system, simulating a house in soil, has been constructed to investigate the effect of meteorological parameters and house and soil characteristics on soil gas flow around houses. The house walls and soil are of variable permeability. Wind is simulated by applying a static pressure distribution to the soil surface. The effect of temperature differences and appliances is simulated by depressurizing the model house. Soil gas pressures at various locations around the house are measured under different conditions. The results show that the ratio of wall to soil permeability is the determining factor in soil gas flow patterns. For a wind of 8.94 m s-1 (20 mph), the horizontal pressure gradients are about 99 Pa m-1 in the model when the wall is at least as permeable as the soil. This corresponds to 3.3 Pa m-1 in the field. When the soil is two or more orders of magnitude more permeable than the wall, the gradient is about 19.8 Pa m-1 in the model, or 0.66 Pa m-1 in the field. There is a logarithmic dependence of pressure gradient on the ratio of wall to soil permeability in the range -2 less than log (kw/ks) less than 0. Conversely, it takes a large temperature difference of 27 degrees C to cause a 99 Pa m-1 horizontal pressure gradient in model systems with wall permeability greater than soil permeability. The effects of changes in the model system on soil gas flow patterns are investigated for the cases of lowered soil surface permeability, partial surface capping, and presence of a subfloor gravel bed. Partial surface capping, as would occur with driveways and patios, was found to have a minor effect on soil gas pressures

  7. An Idealized Meteorological-Hydrodynamic Model for Exploring Extreme Storm Surge Statistics in the North Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Ledden, M.; Van den Berg, N.J.F.; De Jong, M.S.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Den Heijer, C.; Vrijling, J.K.; Jonkman, S.N.; Roos, P.C.; Hulscher, S.J.M.H.; Lansen, A.J.

    2014-01-01

    This paper explores an alternative method to determine extreme surge levels at the Dutch Coast. For this exploration, specific focus is on the extreme water level at Hoek van Holland, The Netherlands. The alternative method has been based on a joint probability model of the storm characteristics at

  8. A meteorologically-driven yield reduction model for spring and winter wheat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravet, F. W.; Cremins, W. J.; Taylor, T. W.; Ashburn, P.; Smika, D.; Aaronson, A. (Principal Investigator)

    1983-01-01

    A yield reduction model for spring and winter wheat was developed for large-area crop condition assessment. Reductions are expressed in percentage from a base yield and are calculated on a daily basis. The algorithm contains two integral components: a two-layer soil water budget model and a crop calendar routine. Yield reductions associated with hot, dry winds (Sukhovey) and soil moisture stress are determined. Input variables include evapotranspiration, maximum temperature and precipitation; subsequently crop-stage, available water holding percentage and stress duration are evaluated. No specific base yield is required and may be selected by the user; however, it may be generally characterized as the maximum likely to be produced commercially at a location.

  9. High-resolution numerical modeling of meteorological and hydrological conditions during May 2014 floods in Serbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vujadinovic, Mirjam; Vukovic, Ana; Cvetkovic, Bojan; Pejanovic, Goran; Nickovic, Slobodan; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Rajkovic, Borivoj; Djordjevic, Marija

    2015-04-01

    In May 2014 west Balkan region was affected by catastrophic floods in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and eastern parts of Croatia. Observed precipitation amount were extremely high, on many stations largest ever recorded. In the period from 12th to 18th of May, most of Serbia received between 50 to 100 mm of rainfall, while western parts of the country, which were influenced the most, had over 200 mm of rainfall, locally even more than 300 mm. This very intense precipitation came when the soil was already saturated after a very wet period during the second half of April and beginning of May, when most of Serbia received between 120 i 170 mm of rainfall. New abundant precipitation on already saturated soil increased surface and underground water flow, caused floods, soil erosion and landslides. High water levels, most of them record breaking, were measured on the Sava, Drina, Dunav, Kolubara, Ljig, Ub, Toplica, Tamnava, Jadar, Zapadna Morava, Velika Morava, Mlava and Pek river. Overall, two cities and 17 municipals were severely affected by the floods, 32000 people were evacuated from their homes, while 51 died. Material damage to the infrastructure, energy power system, crops, livestock funds and houses is estimated to more than 2 billion euro. Although the operational numerical weather forecast gave in generally good precipitation prediction, flood forecasting in this case was mainly done through the expert judgment rather than relying on dynamic hydrological modeling. We applied an integrated atmospheric-hydrologic modelling system to some of the most impacted catchments in order to timely simulate hydrological response, and examine its potentials as a flood warning system. The system is based on the Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Model NMMB, which is a numerical weather prediction model that can be used on a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Its non-hydrostatic module allows high horizontal resolution and resolving cloud systems as well as large

  10. Errors and improvements in the use of archived meteorological data for chemical transport modeling: an analysis using GEOS-Chem v11-01 driven by GEOS-5 meteorology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Yu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Global simulations of atmospheric chemistry are commonly conducted with off-line chemical transport models (CTMs driven by archived meteorological data from general circulation models (GCMs. The off-line approach has the advantages of simplicity and expediency, but it incurs errors due to temporal averaging in the meteorological archive and the inability to reproduce the GCM transport algorithms exactly. The CTM simulation is also often conducted at coarser grid resolution than the parent GCM. Here we investigate this cascade of CTM errors by using 222Rn–210Pb–7Be chemical tracer simulations off-line in the GEOS-Chem CTM at rectilinear 0.25°  ×  0.3125° (≈ 25 km and 2°  ×  2.5° (≈ 200 km resolutions and online in the parent GEOS-5 GCM at cubed-sphere c360 (≈ 25 km and c48 (≈ 200 km horizontal resolutions. The c360 GEOS-5 GCM meteorological archive, updated every 3 h and remapped to 0.25°  ×  0.3125°, is the standard operational product generated by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO and used as input by GEOS-Chem. We find that the GEOS-Chem 222Rn simulation at native 0.25°  ×  0.3125° resolution is affected by vertical transport errors of up to 20 % relative to the GEOS-5 c360 online simulation, in part due to loss of transient organized vertical motions in the GCM (resolved convection that are temporally averaged out in the 3 h meteorological archive. There is also significant error caused by operational remapping of the meteorological archive from a cubed-sphere to a rectilinear grid. Decreasing the GEOS-Chem resolution from 0.25°  ×  0.3125° to 2°  ×  2.5° induces further weakening of vertical transport as transient vertical motions are averaged out spatially and temporally. The resulting 222Rn concentrations simulated by the coarse-resolution GEOS-Chem are overestimated by up to 40 % in surface air relative to the

  11. Joint meteorological and hydrological drought model: a management tool for proactive water resources planning of semi-arid regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modaresi Rad, Arash; Ahmadi Ardakani, Samira; Ghahremani, Zahra; Ghahreman, Bijan; Khalili, Davar

    2016-04-01

    Conventionally drought analysis has been limited to single drought category. Utilization of models incorporating multiple drought categories, can relax this limitation. A copula-based model is proposed, which uses meteorological and hydrological drought indices to assess drought events for ultimate management of water resources, at small scales, i.e., sub-watersheds. The study area is a sub basin located at Karkheh watershed (western Iran), utilizing 41-year data of 4 raingauge stations and one hydrometric station located upstream and at the outlet respectively. Prior to drought analysis, time series of precipitation and streamflow records are investigated for possible dependency/significant trend. Considering the semi-arid nature of the study area, boxplots are utilized to graphically capture the rainy months, which used to evaluate the degree of correlation between streamflow and precipitation records via nonparametric correlations and bivariate tail dependence. Time scales of 3- and 12-month are considered, which are used to study vulnerability of early vegetation establishment and long-term ecosystem resilience, respectively. Among four common goodness of fit tests, the Cramér-von-Mises is found preferable for defining copula distribution functions through Akaike & Bayesian information criteria and coefficient of determination. Furthermore the uncertainty associated with different copula models is measured using the concept of entropy. A new bivariate drought modeling approach is proposed through copulas. The proposed index, named standardized precipitation-streamflow index (SPSI) is compared with two separate indices of streamflow drought index (SDI) and standardized precipitation index (SPI). According to results, the SPSI could detect onset of droughts dominated by precipitation as is similarly indicated by SPI index. It also captures discordant case of normal period precipitation with dry period streamflow and vice versa. Finally, combination of severity

  12. Recent updates in the aerosol component of the C-IFS model run by ECMWF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remy, Samuel; Boucher, Olivier; Hauglustaine, Didier; Kipling, Zak; Flemming, Johannes

    2017-04-01

    The Composition-Integrated Forecast System (C-IFS) is a global atmospheric composition forecasting tool, run by ECMWF within the framework of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). The aerosol model of C-IFS is a simple bulk scheme that forecasts 5 species: dust, sea-salt, black carbon, organic matter and sulfate. Three bins represent the dust and sea-salt, for the super-coarse, coarse and fine mode of these species (Morcrette et al., 2009). This talk will present recent updates of the aerosol model, and also introduce forthcoming developments. It will also present the impact of these changes as measured scores against AERONET Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Airbase PM10 observations. The next cycle of C-IFS will include a mass fixer, because the semi-Lagrangian advection scheme used in C-IFS is not mass-conservative. C-IFS now offers the possibility to emit biomass-burning aerosols at an injection height that is provided by a new version of the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS). Secondary Organic Aerosols (SOA) production will be scaled on non-biomass burning CO fluxes. This approach allows to represent the anthropogenic contribution to SOA production; it brought a notable improvement in the skill of the model, especially over Europe. Lastly, the emissions of SO2 are now provided by the MACCity inventory instead of and older version of the EDGAR dataset. The seasonal and yearly variability of SO2 emissions are better captured by the MACCity dataset. Upcoming developments of the aerosol model of C-IFS consist mainly in the implementation of a nitrate and ammonium module, with 2 bins (fine and coarse) for nitrate. Nitrate and ammonium sulfate particle formation from gaseous precursors is represented following Hauglustaine et al. (2014); formation of coarse nitrate over pre-existing sea-salt or dust particles is also represented. This extension of the forward model improved scores over heavily populated areas such as Europe, China and Eastern

  13. Modeling of spatially referenced environmental and meteorological factors influencing the probability of Listeria species isolation from natural environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanek, R; Gröhn, Y T; Wells, M T; Lembo, A J; Sauders, B D; Wiedmann, M

    2009-09-01

    Many pathogens have the ability to survive and multiply in abiotic environments, representing a possible reservoir and source of human and animal exposure. Our objective was to develop a methodological framework to study spatially explicit environmental and meteorological factors affecting the probability of pathogen isolation from a location. Isolation of Listeria spp. from the natural environment was used as a model system. Logistic regression and classification tree methods were applied, and their predictive performances were compared. Analyses revealed that precipitation and occurrence of alternating freezing and thawing temperatures prior to sample collection, loam soil, water storage to a soil depth of 50 cm, slope gradient, and cardinal direction to the north are key predictors for isolation of Listeria spp. from a spatial location. Different combinations of factors affected the probability of isolation of Listeria spp. from the soil, vegetation, and water layers of a location, indicating that the three layers represent different ecological niches for Listeria spp. The predictive power of classification trees was comparable to that of logistic regression. However, the former were easier to interpret, making them more appealing for field applications. Our study demonstrates how the analysis of a pathogen's spatial distribution improves understanding of the predictors of the pathogen's presence in a particular location and could be used to propose novel control strategies to reduce human and animal environmental exposure.

  14. Run-of-River Impoundments Can Remain Unfilled While Transporting Gravel Bedload: Numerical Modeling Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, A.; Pizzuto, J. E.

    2015-12-01

    Previous work at run-of-river (ROR) dams in northern Delaware has shown that bedload supplied to ROR impoundments can be transported over the dam when impoundments remain unfilled. Transport is facilitated by high levels of sand in the impoundment that lowers the critical shear stresses for particle entrainment, and an inversely sloping sediment ramp connecting the impoundment bed (where the water depth is typically equal to the dam height) with the top of the dam (Pearson and Pizzuto, in press). We demonstrate with one-dimensional bed material transport modeling that bed material can move through impoundments and that equilibrium transport (i.e., a balance between supply to and export from the impoundment, with a constant bed elevation) is possible even when the bed elevation is below the top of the dam. Based on our field work and previous HEC-RAS modeling, we assess bed material transport capacity at the base of the sediment ramp (and ignore detailed processes carrying sediment up and ramp and over the dam). The hydraulics at the base of the ramp are computed using a weir equation, providing estimates of water depth, velocity, and friction, based on the discharge and sediment grain size distribution of the impoundment. Bedload transport rates are computed using the Wilcock-Crowe equation, and changes in the impoundment's bed elevation are determined by sediment continuity. Our results indicate that impoundments pass the gravel supplied from upstream with deep pools when gravel supply rate is low, gravel grain sizes are relatively small, sand supply is high, and discharge is high. Conversely, impoundments will tend to fill their pools when gravel supply rate is high, gravel grain sizes are relatively large, sand supply is low, and discharge is low. The rate of bedload supplied to an impoundment is the primary control on how fast equilibrium transport is reached, with discharge having almost no influence on the timing of equilibrium.

  15. Air pollution meteorology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shirvaikar, V.V.; Daoo, V.J.

    2002-06-01

    This report is intended as a training cum reference document for scientists posted at the Environmental Laboratories at the Nuclear Power Station Sites and other sites of the Department of Atomic Energy with installations emitting air pollutants, radioactive or otherwise. Since a manual already exists for the computation of doses from radioactive air pollutants, a general approach is take here i.e. air pollutants in general are considered. The first chapter presents a brief introduction to the need and scope of air pollution dispersion modelling. The second chapter is a very important chapter discussing the aspects of meteorology relevant to air pollution and dispersion modelling. This chapter is important because without this information one really does not understand the phenomena affecting dispersion, the scope and applicability of various models or their limitations under various weather and site conditions. The third chapter discusses the air pollution models in detail. These models are applicable to distances of a few tens of kilometres. The fourth chapter discusses the various aspects of meteorological measurements relevant to air pollution. The chapters are followed by two appendices. Apendix A discusses the reliability of air pollution estimates. Apendix B gives some practical examples relevant to general air pollution. It is hoped that the document will prove very useful to the users. (author)

  16. Multiple-step model-experiment matching allows precise definition of dynamical leg parameters in human running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, C; Grimmer, S; Seyfarth, A; Maus, H-M

    2012-09-21

    The spring-loaded inverted pendulum (SLIP) model is a well established model for describing bouncy gaits like human running. The notion of spring-like leg behavior has led many researchers to compute the corresponding parameters, predominantly stiffness, in various experimental setups and in various ways. However, different methods yield different results, making the comparison between studies difficult. Further, a model simulation with experimentally obtained leg parameters typically results in comparatively large differences between model and experimental center of mass trajectories. Here, we pursue the opposite approach which is calculating model parameters that allow reproduction of an experimental sequence of steps. In addition, to capture energy fluctuations, an extension of the SLIP (ESLIP) is required and presented. The excellent match of the models with the experiment validates the description of human running by the SLIP with the obtained parameters which we hence call dynamical leg parameters. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Modelling NOX concentrations through CFD-RANS in an urban hot-spot using high resolution traffic emissions and meteorology from a mesoscale model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Beatriz; Santiago, Jose Luis; Martilli, Alberto; Martin, Fernando; Borge, Rafael; Quaassdorff, Christina; de la Paz, David

    2017-08-01

    Air quality management requires more detailed studies about air pollution at urban and local scale over long periods of time. This work focuses on obtaining the spatial distribution of NOx concentration averaged over several days in a heavily trafficked urban area in Madrid (Spain) using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. A methodology based on weighted average of CFD simulations is applied computing the time evolution of NOx dispersion as a sequence of steady-state scenarios taking into account the actual atmospheric conditions. The inputs of emissions are estimated from the traffic emission model and the meteorological information used is derived from a mesoscale model. Finally, the computed concentration map correlates well with 72 passive samplers deployed in the research area. This work reveals the potential of using urban mesoscale simulations together with detailed traffic emissions so as to provide accurate maps of pollutant concentration at microscale using CFD simulations.

  18. Representation of tropical deep convection in atmospheric models – Part 1: Meteorology and comparison with satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Russo

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Fast convective transport in the tropics can efficiently redistribute water vapour and pollutants up to the upper troposphere. In this study we compare tropical convection characteristics for the year 2005 in a range of atmospheric models, including numerical weather prediction (NWP models, chemistry transport models (CTMs, and chemistry-climate models (CCMs. The model runs have been performed within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere project. The characteristics of tropical convection, such as seasonal cycle, land/sea contrast and vertical extent, are analysed using satellite observations as a benchmark for model simulations. The observational datasets used in this work comprise precipitation rates, outgoing longwave radiation, cloud-top pressure, and water vapour from a number of independent sources, including ERA-Interim analyses. Most models are generally able to reproduce the seasonal cycle and strength of precipitation for continental regions but show larger discrepancies with observations for the Maritime Continent region. The frequency distribution of high clouds from models and observations is calculated using highly temporally-resolved (up to 3-hourly cloud top data. The percentage of clouds above 15 km varies significantly between the models. Vertical profiles of water vapour in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS show large differences between the models which can only be partly attributed to temperature differences. If a convective plume reaches above the level of zero net radiative heating, which is estimated to be ~15 km in the tropics, the air detrained from it can be transported upwards by radiative heating into the lower stratosphere. In this context, we discuss the role of tropical convection as a precursor for the transport of short-lived species into the lower stratosphere.

  19. Integrated meteorological and hydrological drought model: A management tool for proactive water resources planning of semi-arid regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rad, Arash Modaresi; Ghahraman, Bijan; Khalili, Davar; Ghahremani, Zahra; Ardakani, Samira Ahmadi

    2017-09-01

    Conventionally, drought analysis has been limited to single drought category. Utilization of models incorporating multiple drought categories, can relax this limitation. A copula-based model is proposed, which uses meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics to assess drought events for ultimate management of water resources, at small scales, i.e., sub-watersheds. The chosen study area is a sub-basin located at Karkheh watershed (western Iran), with five raingauge stations and one hydrometric station, located upstream and at the outlet, respectively, which represent 41-year of data. Prior to drought analysis, time series of precipitation and streamflow records are investigated for possible dependency/significant trend. Considering semi-arid nature of the study area, boxplots are utilized to graphically capture the rainy months, which are used to evaluate the degree of correlation between streamflow and precipitation records via nonparametric correlations. Time scales of 3- and 12-month are considered, which are used to study vulnerability of early vegetation establishment and long-term ecosystem resilience, respectively. Among four common goodness of fit (GOF) tests, Anderson-Darling is found preferable for defining copula distribution functions through GOF measures, i.e., Akaike and Bayesian information criteria and normalized root mean square error. Furthermore, a GOF method is proposed to evaluate the uncertainty associated with different copula models using the concept of entropy. A new bivariate drought modeling approach is proposed through copulas. The proposed index named standardized precipitation-streamflow index (SPSI) unlike common indices which are used in conjunction with station data, can be applied on a regional basis. SPDI is compared with widely applied streamflow drought index (SDI) and standardized precipitation index (SPI). To assess the homogeneity of the dependence structure of SPSI regionally, Kendall-τ and upper tail coefficient

  20. A simple running model with rolling contact and its role as a template for dynamic locomotion on a hexapod robot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ke-Jung; Huang, Chun-Kai; Lin, Pei-Chun

    2014-10-07

    We report on the development of a robot's dynamic locomotion based on a template which fits the robot's natural dynamics. The developed template is a low degree-of-freedom planar model for running with rolling contact, which we call rolling spring loaded inverted pendulum (R-SLIP). Originating from a reduced-order model of the RHex-style robot with compliant circular legs, the R-SLIP model also acts as the template for general dynamic running. The model has a torsional spring and a large circular arc as the distributed foot, so during locomotion it rolls on the ground with varied equivalent linear stiffness. This differs from the well-known spring loaded inverted pendulum (SLIP) model with fixed stiffness and ground contact points. Through dimensionless steps-to-fall and return map analysis, within a wide range of parameter spaces, the R-SLIP model is revealed to have self-stable gaits and a larger stability region than that of the SLIP model. The R-SLIP model is then embedded as the reduced-order 'template' in a more complex 'anchor', the RHex-style robot, via various mapping definitions between the template and the anchor. Experimental validation confirms that by merely deploying the stable running gaits of the R-SLIP model on the empirical robot with simple open-loop control strategy, the robot can easily initiate its dynamic running behaviors with a flight phase and can move with similar body state profiles to those of the model, in all five testing speeds. The robot, embedded with the SLIP model but performing walking locomotion, further confirms the importance of finding an adequate template of the robot for dynamic locomotion.

  1. A simple running model with rolling contact and its role as a template for dynamic locomotion on a hexapod robot

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Ke-Jung; Huang, Chun-Kai; Lin, Pei-Chun

    2014-01-01

    We report on the development of a robot’s dynamic locomotion based on a template which fits the robot’s natural dynamics. The developed template is a low degree-of-freedom planar model for running with rolling contact, which we call rolling spring loaded inverted pendulum (R-SLIP). Originating from a reduced-order model of the RHex-style robot with compliant circular legs, the R-SLIP model also acts as the template for general dynamic running. The model has a torsional spring and a large circular arc as the distributed foot, so during locomotion it rolls on the ground with varied equivalent linear stiffness. This differs from the well-known spring loaded inverted pendulum (SLIP) model with fixed stiffness and ground contact points. Through dimensionless steps-to-fall and return map analysis, within a wide range of parameter spaces, the R-SLIP model is revealed to have self-stable gaits and a larger stability region than that of the SLIP model. The R-SLIP model is then embedded as the reduced-order ‘template’ in a more complex ‘anchor’, the RHex-style robot, via various mapping definitions between the template and the anchor. Experimental validation confirms that by merely deploying the stable running gaits of the R-SLIP model on the empirical robot with simple open-loop control strategy, the robot can easily initiate its dynamic running behaviors with a flight phase and can move with similar body state profiles to those of the model, in all five testing speeds. The robot, embedded with the SLIP model but performing walking locomotion, further confirms the importance of finding an adequate template of the robot for dynamic locomotion. (paper)

  2. Dark Matter Benchmark Models for Early LHC Run-2 Searches. Report of the ATLAS/CMS Dark Matter Forum

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abercrombie, Daniel [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States). et al.

    2015-07-06

    One of the guiding principles of this report is to channel the efforts of the ATLAS and CMS collaborations towards a minimal basis of dark matter models that should influence the design of the early Run-2 searches. At the same time, a thorough survey of realistic collider signals of Dark Matter is a crucial input to the overall design of the search program.

  3. Physically based dynamic run-out modelling for quantitative debris flow risk assessment: a case study in Tresenda, northern Italy

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Quan Luna, B.; Blahůt, Jan; Camera, C.; Van Westen, C.; Apuani, T.; Jetten, V.; Sterlacchini, S.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 72, č. 3 (2014), s. 645-661 ISSN 1866-6280 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : debris flow * FLO-2D * run-out * quantitative hazard and risk assessment * vulnerability * numerical modelling Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 1.765, year: 2014

  4. On the duality between long-run relations and common trends in the I(1) versus I(2) model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    1994-01-01

    Long-run relations and common trends are discussed in terms of the multivariate cointegration model given in the autoregressive and the moving average form. The basic results needed for the analysis of I(1) and 1(2)processes are reviewed and the results applied to Danish monetary data. The test...

  5. An integrated model to assess critical rain fall thresholds for the critical run-out distances of debris flows

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Asch, Th.W.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304839558; Tang, C.; Alkema, D.; Zhu, J.; Zhou, W.

    2013-01-01

    A dramatic increase in debris flows occurred in the years after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in SW China due to the deposition of loose co-seismic landslide material. This paper proposes a preliminary integrated model, which describes the relationship between rain input and debris flow run-out in

  6. A study of the dengue epidemic and meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China, by using a zero-inflated Poisson regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chenggang; Jiang, Baofa; Fan, Jingchun; Wang, Furong; Liu, Qiyong

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study is to develop a model that correctly identifies and quantifies the relationship between dengue and meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China. By cross-correlation analysis, meteorological variables and their lag effects were determined. According to the epidemic characteristics of dengue in Guangzhou, those statistically significant variables were modeled by a zero-inflated Poisson regression model. The number of dengue cases and minimum temperature at 1-month lag, along with average relative humidity at 0- to 1-month lag were all positively correlated with the prevalence of dengue fever, whereas wind velocity and temperature in the same month along with rainfall at 2 months' lag showed negative association with dengue incidence. Minimum temperature at 1-month lag and wind velocity in the same month had a greater impact on the dengue epidemic than other variables in Guangzhou.

  7. A Bayesian analysis of sensible heat flux estimation: Quantifying uncertainty in meteorological forcing to improve model prediction

    KAUST Repository

    Ershadi, Ali

    2013-05-01

    The influence of uncertainty in land surface temperature, air temperature, and wind speed on the estimation of sensible heat flux is analyzed using a Bayesian inference technique applied to the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model. The Bayesian approach allows for an explicit quantification of the uncertainties in input variables: a source of error generally ignored in surface heat flux estimation. An application using field measurements from the Soil Moisture Experiment 2002 is presented. The spatial variability of selected input meteorological variables in a multitower site is used to formulate the prior estimates for the sampling uncertainties, and the likelihood function is formulated assuming Gaussian errors in the SEBS model. Land surface temperature, air temperature, and wind speed were estimated by sampling their posterior distribution using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Results verify that Bayesian-inferred air temperature and wind speed were generally consistent with those observed at the towers, suggesting that local observations of these variables were spatially representative. Uncertainties in the land surface temperature appear to have the strongest effect on the estimated sensible heat flux, with Bayesian-inferred values differing by up to ±5°C from the observed data. These differences suggest that the footprint of the in situ measured land surface temperature is not representative of the larger-scale variability. As such, these measurements should be used with caution in the calculation of surface heat fluxes and highlight the importance of capturing the spatial variability in the land surface temperature: particularly, for remote sensing retrieval algorithms that use this variable for flux estimation.

  8. Modeling grain size adjustments in the downstream reach following run-of-river development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Theodore K.; Venditti, Jeremy G.; Nelson, Peter A.; Palen, Wendy J.

    2016-04-01

    Disruptions to sediment supply continuity caused by run-of-river (RoR) hydropower development have the potential to cause downstream changes in surface sediment grain size which can influence the productivity of salmon habitat. The most common approach to understanding the impacts of RoR hydropower is to study channel changes in the years following project development, but by then, any impacts are manifest and difficult to reverse. Here we use a more proactive approach, focused on predicting impacts in the project planning stage. We use a one-dimensional morphodynamic model to test the hypothesis that the greatest risk of geomorphic change and impact to salmon habitat from a temporary sediment supply disruption exists where predevelopment sediment supply is high and project design creates substantial sediment storage volume. We focus on the potential impacts in the reach downstream of a powerhouse for a range of development scenarios that are typical of projects developed in the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Results indicate that increases in the median bed surface size (D50) are minor if development occurs on low sediment supply streams (<1 mm for supply rates 1 × 10-5 m2 s-1 or lower), and substantial for development on high sediment supply streams (8-30 mm for supply rates between 5.5 × 10-4 and 1 × 10-3 m2 s-1). However, high sediment supply streams recover rapidly to the predevelopment surface D50 (˜1 year) if sediment supply can be reestablished.

  9. Search for non-standard model signatures in the WZ/ZZ final state at CDF run II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Norman, Matthew [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States)

    2009-01-01

    This thesis discusses a search for non-Standard Model physics in heavy diboson production in the dilepton-dijet final state, using 1.9 fb -1 of data from the CDF Run II detector. New limits are set on the anomalous coupling parameters for ZZ and WZ production based on limiting the production cross-section at high š. Additionally limits are set on the direct decay of new physics to ZZ andWZ diboson pairs. The nature and parameters of the CDF Run II detector are discussed, as are the influences that it has on the methods of our analysis.

  10. Assessing the competing roles of model resolution and meteorological forcing fidelity in hyperresolution simulations of snowpack and streamflow in the southern Rocky Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gochis, D. J.; Dugger, A. L.; Karsten, L. R.; Barlage, M. J.; Sampson, K. M.; Yu, W.; Pan, L.; McCreight, J. L.; Howard, K.; Busto, J.; Deems, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrometeorological processes vary over comparatively short length scales in regions of complex terrain such as the southern Rocky Mountains. Changes in temperature, precipitation, wind and solar radiation can vary significantly across elevation gradients, terrain landform and land cover conditions throughout the region. Capturing such variability in hydrologic models can necessitate the utilization of so-called `hyper-resolution' spatial meshes with effective element spacings of less than 100m. However, it is often difficult to obtain meteorological forcings of high quality in such regions at those resolutions which can result in significant uncertainty in fundamental in hydrologic model inputs. In this study we examine the comparative influences of meteorological forcing data fidelity and spatial resolution on seasonal simulations of snowpack evolution, runoff and streamflow in a set of high mountain watersheds in southern Colorado. We utilize the operational, NOAA National Water Model configuration of the community WRF-Hydro system as a baseline and compare against it, additional model scenarios with differing specifications of meteorological forcing data, with and without topographic downscaling adjustments applied, with and without experimental high resolution radar derived precipitation estimates and with WRF-Hydro configurations of progressively finer spatial resolution. The results suggest significant influence from and importance of meteorological downscaling techniques in controlling spatial distributions of meltout and runoff timing. The use of radar derived precipitation exhibits clear sensitivity on hydrologic simulation skill compared with the use of coarser resolution, background precipitation analyses. Advantages and disadvantages of the utilization of progressively higher resolution model configurations both in terms of computational requirements and model fidelity are also discussed.

  11. Improved Meteorological Input for Atmospheric Release Decision support Systems and an Integrated LES Modeling System for Atmospheric Dispersion of Toxic Agents: Homeland Security Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnold, E; Simpson, M; Larsen, S; Gash, J; Aluzzi, F; Lundquist, J; Sugiyama, G

    2010-04-26

    When hazardous material is accidently or intentionally released into the atmosphere, emergency response organizations look to decision support systems (DSSs) to translate contaminant information provided by atmospheric models into effective decisions to protect the public and emergency responders and to mitigate subsequent consequences. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS)-led Interagency Modeling and Atmospheric Assessment Center (IMAAC) is one of the primary DSSs utilized by emergency management organizations. IMAAC is responsible for providing 'a single piont for the coordination and dissemination of Federal dispersion modeling and hazard prediction products that represent the Federal position' during actual or potential incidents under the National Response Plan. The Department of Energy's (DOE) National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC), locatec at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), serves as the primary operations center of the IMAAC. A key component of atmospheric release decision support systems is meteorological information - models and data of winds, turbulence, and other atmospheric boundary-layer parameters. The accuracy of contaminant predictions is strongly dependent on the quality of this information. Therefore, the effectiveness of DSSs can be enhanced by improving the meteorological options available to drive atmospheric transport and fate models. The overall goal of this project was to develop and evaluate new meteorological modeling capabilities for DSSs based on the use of NASA Earth-science data sets in order to enhance the atmospheric-hazard information provided to emergency managers and responders. The final report describes the LLNL contributions to this multi-institutional effort. LLNL developed an approach to utilize NCAR meteorological predictions using NASA MODIS data for the New York City (NYC) region and demonstrated the potential impact of the use of different data sources and data

  12. Instantaneous-to-daily GPP upscaling schemes based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model: correcting the overestimation of GPP by directly using daily average meteorological inputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fumin; Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Black, T Andrew; Zhou, Bin

    2014-11-01

    Daily canopy photosynthesis is usually temporally upscaled from instantaneous (i.e., seconds) photosynthesis rate. The nonlinear response of photosynthesis to meteorological variables makes the temporal scaling a significant challenge. In this study, two temporal upscaling schemes of daily photosynthesis, the integrated daily model (IDM) and the segmented daily model (SDM), are presented by considering the diurnal variations of meteorological variables based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model. The two models, as well as a simple average daily model (SADM) with daily average meteorological inputs, were validated using the tower-derived gross primary production (GPP) to assess their abilities in simulating daily photosynthesis. The results showed IDM closely followed the seasonal trend of the tower-derived GPP with an average RMSE of 1.63 g C m(-2) day(-1), and an average Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E) of 0.87. SDM performed similarly to IDM in GPP simulation but decreased the computation time by >66%. SADM overestimated daily GPP by about 15% during the growing season compared to IDM. Both IDM and SDM greatly decreased the overestimation by SADM, and improved the simulation of daily GPP by reducing the RMSE by 34 and 30%, respectively. The results indicated that IDM and SDM are useful temporal upscaling approaches, and both are superior to SADM in daily GPP simulation because they take into account the diurnally varying responses of photosynthesis to meteorological variables. SDM is computationally more efficient, and therefore more suitable for long-term and large-scale GPP simulations.

  13. Running Away

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... the streets in the United States. Why Kids Run Away Remember how you felt the last time you got in ... how to express angry feelings without violence. Know how to calm yourself down after you're upset. Maybe you need to run around outside, listen to music, draw, or write ...

  14. Site-specific meteorology identification for DOE facility accident analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rabin, S.B.

    1995-09-01

    Currently, chemical dispersion calculations performed for safety analysis of DOE facilities assume a Pasquill D-Stability Class with a 4.5 m/s windspeed. These meteorological conditions are assumed to conservatively address the source term generation mechanism as well as the dispersion mechanism thereby resulting in a net conservative downwind consequence. While choosing this Stability Class / Windspeed combination may result in an overall conservative consequence, the level of conservative can not be quantified. The intent of this paper is to document a methodology which incorporates site-specific meteorology to determine a quantifiable consequence of a chemical release. A five-year meteorological database, appropriate for the facility location, is utilized for these chemical consequence calculations, and is consistent with the approach used for radiological releases. The hourly averages of meteorological conditions have been binned into 21 groups for the chemical consequence calculations. These 21 cases each have a probability of occurrence based on the number of times each case has occurred over the five year sampling period. A code has been developed which automates the running of all the cases with a commercially available air modeling code. The 21 cases are sorted by concentration. A concentration may be selected by the user for a quantified level of conservatism. The methodology presented is intended to improve the technical accuracy and defensability of Chemical Source Term / Dispersion Safety Analysis work. The result improves the quality of safety analyses products without significantly increasing the cost.

  15. Modeling of the anthropogenic heat flux and its effect on regional meteorology and air quality over the Yangtze River Delta region, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Xie

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic heat (AH emissions from human activities caused by urbanization can affect the city environment. Based on the energy consumption and the gridded demographic data, the spatial distribution of AH emission over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD region is estimated. Meanwhile, a new method for the AH parameterization is developed in the WRF/Chem model, which incorporates the gridded AH emission data with the seasonal and diurnal variations into the simulations. By running this upgraded WRF/Chem for 2 typical months in 2010, the impacts of AH on the meteorology and air quality over the YRD region are studied. The results show that the AH fluxes over the YRD have been growing in recent decades. In 2010, the annual-mean values of AH over Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 14.46, 2.61 and 1.63 W m−2, respectively, with the high value of 113.5 W m−2 occurring in the urban areas of Shanghai. These AH emissions can significantly change the urban heat island and urban-breeze circulations in the cities of the YRD region. In Shanghai, 2 m air temperature increases by 1.6 °C in January and 1.4 °C in July, the PBLH (planetary boundary layer height rises up by 140 m in January and 160 m in July, and 10 m wind speed is enhanced by 0.7 m s−1 in January and 0.5 m s−1 in July, with a higher increment at night. The enhanced vertical movement can transport more moisture to higher levels, which causes the decrease in water vapor at ground level and the increase in the upper PBL (planetary boundary layer, and thereby induces the accumulative precipitation to increase by 15–30 % over the megacities in July. The adding of AH can impact the spatial and vertical distributions of the simulated pollutants as well. The concentrations of primary air pollutants decrease near the surface and increase at the upper levels, due mainly to the increases in PBLH, surface wind speed and upward air vertical movement. But surface O3

  16. From control to causation: Validating a 'complex systems model' of running-related injury development and prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulme, A; Salmon, P M; Nielsen, R O; Read, G J M; Finch, C F

    2017-11-01

    There is a need for an ecological and complex systems approach for better understanding the development and prevention of running-related injury (RRI). In a previous article, we proposed a prototype model of the Australian recreational distance running system which was based on the Systems Theoretic Accident Mapping and Processes (STAMP) method. That model included the influence of political, organisational, managerial, and sociocultural determinants alongside individual-level factors in relation to RRI development. The purpose of this study was to validate that prototype model by drawing on the expertise of both systems thinking and distance running experts. This study used a modified Delphi technique involving a series of online surveys (December 2016- March 2017). The initial survey was divided into four sections containing a total of seven questions pertaining to different features associated with the prototype model. Consensus in opinion about the validity of the prototype model was reached when the number of experts who agreed or disagreed with survey statement was ≥75% of the total number of respondents. A total of two Delphi rounds was needed to validate the prototype model. Out of a total of 51 experts who were initially contacted, 50.9% (n = 26) completed the first round of the Delphi, and 92.3% (n = 24) of those in the first round participated in the second. Most of the 24 full participants considered themselves to be a running expert (66.7%), and approximately a third indicated their expertise as a systems thinker (33.3%). After the second round, 91.7% of the experts agreed that the prototype model was a valid description of the Australian distance running system. This is the first study to formally examine the development and prevention of RRI from an ecological and complex systems perspective. The validated model of the Australian distance running system facilitates theoretical advancement in terms of identifying practical system

  17. Suitability of a Coupled Hydrodynamic Water Quality Model to Predict Changes in Water Quality from Altered Meteorological Boundary Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leon van der Linden

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Downscaled climate scenarios can be used to inform management decisions on investment in infrastructure or alternative water sources within water supply systems. Appropriate models of the system components, such as catchments, rivers, lakes and reservoirs, are required. The climatic sensitivity of the coupled hydrodynamic water quality model ELCOM-CAEDYM was investigated, by incrementally altering boundary conditions, to determine its suitability for evaluating climate change impacts. A series of simulations were run with altered boundary condition inputs for the reservoir. Air and inflowing water temperature (TEMP, wind speed (WIND and reservoir inflow and outflow volumes (FLOW were altered to investigate the sensitivity of these key drivers over relevant domains. The simulated water quality variables responded in broadly plausible ways to the altered boundary conditions; sensitivity of the simulated cyanobacteria population to increases in temperature was similar to published values. However the negative response of total chlorophyll-a suggested by the model was not supported by an empirical analysis of climatic sensitivity. This study demonstrated that ELCOM-CAEDYM is sensitive to climate drivers and may be suitable for use in climate impact studies. It is recommended that the influence of structural and parameter derived uncertainty on the results be evaluated. Important factors in determining phytoplankton growth were identified and the importance of inflowing water quality was emphasized.

  18. A modeling study on the effect of urban land surface forcing to regional meteorology and air quality over South China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Kuanguang; Xie, Min; Wang, Tijian; Cai, Junxiong; Li, Songbing; Feng, Wen

    2017-03-01

    The change of land-use from natural to artificial surface induced by urban expansion can deeply impact the city environment. In this paper, the model WRF/Chem is applied to explore the effect of this change on regional meteorology and air quality over South China, where people have witnessed a rapid rate of urbanization. Two sets of urban maps are adopted to stand for the pre-urbanization and the present urban land-use distributions. Month-long simulations are conducted for January and July, 2014. The results show that urban expansion can obviously change the weather conditions around the big cities of South China. Especially in the Pearl River Delta region (PRD), the urban land-use change can increase the sensible heat flux by 40 W/m2 in January and 80 W/m2 in July, while decrease the latent heat flux about -50 W/m2 in January and -120 W/m2 in July. In the consequent, 2-m air temperature (T2) increases as much as 1 °C and 2 °C (respective to January and July), planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) rises up by 100-150 m and 300 m, 10-m wind speed (WS10) decreases by -1.2 m/s and -0.3 m/s, and 2-m specific humidity is reduced by -0.8 g/kg and -1.5 g/kg. Also, the precipitation in July can be increased as much as 120 mm, with more heavy rains and rainstorms. These variations of meteorological factors can significantly impact the spatial and vertical distribution of air pollutants as well. In PRD, the enhanced updraft can reduce the surface concentrations of PM10 by -40 μg/m3 (30%) in January and -80 μg/m3 (50%) in July, but produce a correlating increase in the concentrations at higher atmospheric layers. However, according to the increase in T2 and the decrease in surface NO, the surface concentrations of O3 in PRD can increase by 2-6 ppb in January and 8-12 ppb in July. Meanwhile, there is a significant increase in the O3 concentrations at upper layers above PRD, which should be attributed to the increase in air temperature and the enhanced upward transport of

  19. Dezenflasyon Sürecinde Türkiye’de Enflasyonun Uzun ve Kısa Dönem Dinamiklerinin Modellenmesi(Modelling The Long Run and The Short Run Dynamics of Inflation In The Disinflation Process In Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Macide ÇİÇEK

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it is employed that Expectations-Augmented Philips Curve Model to investigate the link between inflation and unit labor costs, output gap (proxy for demand shocks, real exchange rate (proxy for supply shocks and price expectations for Turkey using monthly data from 2000:01 to 2004:12. The methodology employed in this paper uses unit root test, Johansen Cointegration Test to examine the existence of possible long run relationships among the variables included in the model and a single equation error correction model for the inflation equation estimated by OLS to examine the short run dynamics of inflation, respectively. It is find that in the long run, mark-up behaviour of output prices over unit labor costs is the main cause of inflation, real exchange rate has a rather big impact on reduced inflation and demand shocks don’t led to an increase in prices. The short run dynamics of the inflation equation indicate that supply shocks are the determinant of inflation in the short run. It is also find that exchange rate is the variable that trigger an inflation adjustment the most rapidly in the short run.

  20. Four-dimensional data assimilation as a method for coupling two meteorological model systems of different scales; Vierdimensionale Datenassimilation als Methode zur Kopplung zweier verschiedenskaliger meteorologischer Modellsysteme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilms-Grabe, W.

    2001-10-01

    A method of coupling two meteorological models of different scales must meet certain requirements: First, even a big difference in resolution between the two models must not produce disturbances in the smaller-scale model. This means that most nesting approaches are unfit for the purpose. The method presented here is not limited to meteorological models. It can be enhanced without much difficulty to dispersion models taking account of chemical atmospheric reactions, as e.g. in the CTM of the EURAD model or in DRAIS as an enhancement of the KAMM version. [German] Das Ziel dieser Arbeit bestand in der Entwicklung eines geeigneten Kopplungsverfahrens zweier verschiedenskaliger meteorologischer Modelle, das in einem Ein-Weg-Nesting dem kleinerskaligen Modell ermoeglicht, sowohl instationaere superskalige Verhaeltnisse als auch modellinterne kleinraeumige Prozesse miteinander zu verbinden. Im Rahmen des Projektes TFS mussten hierbei entscheidende Bedingungen an das Kopplungsverfahren gestellt werden. Allen voran darf vor allem ein auch grosser Unterschied in der Aufloesung der beiden verschiedenskaligen Modelle keine kuenstlichen Stoerungen im kleinerskaligen Modell produzieren. Somit scheiden die sonst ueblichen Nestingansaetze fuer diesen Fall aus. Das Verfahren ist derart konzipiert, dass es sich nicht auf rein meteorologische Modelle beschraenkt. Eine Ausweitung auf Ausbreitungsmodelle unter Beruecksichtigung chemischer Reaktionen in der Atmosphaere, wie sie etwa im CTM des EURAD-Modells oder im DRAIS als Erweiterung der KAMM-Version zur Verfuegung stehen, stellt keinen allzu grossen Schritt mehr dar. (orig.)

  1. Voluntary Running Attenuates Memory Loss, Decreases Neuropathological Changes and Induces Neurogenesis in a Mouse Model of Alzheimer's Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapia-Rojas, Cheril; Aranguiz, Florencia; Varela-Nallar, Lorena; Inestrosa, Nibaldo C

    2016-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by loss of memory and cognitive abilities, and the appearance of amyloid plaques composed of the amyloid-β peptide (Aβ) and neurofibrillary tangles formed of tau protein. It has been suggested that exercise might ameliorate the disease; here, we evaluated the effect of voluntary running on several aspects of AD including amyloid deposition, tau phosphorylation, inflammatory reaction, neurogenesis and spatial memory in the double transgenic APPswe/PS1ΔE9 mouse model of AD. We report that voluntary wheel running for 10 weeks decreased Aβ burden, Thioflavin-S-positive plaques and Aβ oligomers in the hippocampus. In addition, runner APPswe/PS1ΔE9 mice showed fewer phosphorylated tau protein and decreased astrogliosis evidenced by lower staining of GFAP. Further, runner APPswe/PS1ΔE9 mice showed increased number of neurons in the hippocampus and exhibited increased cell proliferation and generation of cells positive for the immature neuronal protein doublecortin, indicating that running increased neurogenesis. Finally, runner APPswe/PS1ΔE9 mice showed improved spatial memory performance in the Morris water maze. Altogether, our findings indicate that in APPswe/PS1ΔE9 mice, voluntary running reduced all the neuropathological hallmarks of AD studied, reduced neuronal loss, increased hippocampal neurogenesis and reduced spatial memory loss. These findings support that voluntary exercise might have therapeutic value on AD. © 2015 International Society of Neuropathology.

  2. Dual-use tools and systematics-aware analysis workflows in the ATLAS Run-2 analysis model

    CERN Document Server

    FARRELL, Steven; The ATLAS collaboration; Calafiura, Paolo; Delsart, Pierre-Antoine; Elsing, Markus; Koeneke, Karsten; Krasznahorkay, Attila; Krumnack, Nils; Lancon, Eric; Lavrijsen, Wim; Laycock, Paul; Lei, Xiaowen; Strandberg, Sara Kristina; Verkerke, Wouter; Vivarelli, Iacopo; Woudstra, Martin

    2015-01-01

    The ATLAS analysis model has been overhauled for the upcoming run of data collection in 2015 at 13 TeV. One key component of this upgrade was the Event Data Model (EDM), which now allows for greater flexibility in the choice of analysis software framework and provides powerful new features that can be exploited by analysis software tools. A second key component of the upgrade is the introduction of a dual-use tool technology, which provides abstract interfaces for analysis software tools to run in either the Athena framework or a ROOT-based framework. The tool interfaces, including a new interface for handling systematic uncertainties, have been standardized for the development of improved analysis workflows and consolidation of high-level analysis tools. This paper will cover the details of the dual-use tool functionality, the systematics interface, and how these features fit into a centrally supported analysis environment.

  3. Dual-use tools and systematics-aware analysis workflows in the ATLAS Run-II analysis model

    CERN Document Server

    FARRELL, Steven; The ATLAS collaboration

    2015-01-01

    The ATLAS analysis model has been overhauled for the upcoming run of data collection in 2015 at 13 TeV. One key component of this upgrade was the Event Data Model (EDM), which now allows for greater flexibility in the choice of analysis software framework and provides powerful new features that can be exploited by analysis software tools. A second key component of the upgrade is the introduction of a dual-use tool technology, which provides abstract interfaces for analysis software tools to run in either the Athena framework or a ROOT-based framework. The tool interfaces, including a new interface for handling systematic uncertainties, have been standardized for the development of improved analysis workflows and consolidation of high-level analysis tools. This presentation will cover the details of the dual-use tool functionality, the systematics interface, and how these features fit into a centrally supported analysis environment.

  4. Software library of meteorological routines for air quality models; Libreria de software de procedimientos meteorologicos para modelos de dispersion de contaminantes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galindo Garcia, Ivan Francisco

    1999-04-01

    Air quality models are an essential tool for most air pollution studies. The models require, however, certain meteorological information about the model domain. Some of the required meteorological parameters can be measured directly, but others must be estimated from available measured data. Therefore, a set of procedures, routines and computational programs to obtain all the meteorological and micrometeorological input data is required. The objective in this study is the identification and implementation of several relationships and methods for the determination of all the meteorological parameters required as input data by US-EPA recommended air pollution models. To accomplish this, a study about air pollution models was conducted, focusing, particularly, on the model meteorological input data. Also, the meteorological stations from the Servicio Meteorologico Nacional (SMN) were analyzed. The type and quality of the meteorological data produced was obtained. The routines and methods developed were based, particularly, on the data produced by SMN stations. Routines were organized in a software library, which allows one to build the specific meteorological processor needed, independently of the model used. Methods were validated against data obtained from an advanced meteorological station owned and operated by the Electrical Research Institute (Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas (IIE)). The results from the validation show that the estimation of the parameters required by air pollution models from routinely available data from Mexico meteorological stations is feasible and therefore let us take full advantage of the use of air pollution models. As an application example of the software library developed, the building of a meteorological processor for a specific air pollution model (CALPUFF) is described. The big advantage the library represents is evident from this example. [Espanol] Los modelos de dispersion de contaminantes constituyen una herramienta

  5. Dark Matter Benchmark Models for Early LHC Run-2 Searches: Report of the ATLAS/CMS Dark Matter Forum

    CERN Document Server

    Abercrombie, Daniel; Akilli, Ece; Alcaraz Maestre, Juan; Allen, Brandon; Alvarez Gonzalez, Barbara; Andrea, Jeremy; Arbey, Alexandre; Azuelos, Georges; Azzi, Patrizia; Backovic, Mihailo; Bai, Yang; Banerjee, Swagato; Beacham, James; Belyaev, Alexander; Boveia, Antonio; Brennan, Amelia Jean; Buchmueller, Oliver; Buckley, Matthew R.; Busoni, Giorgio; Buttignol, Michael; Cacciapaglia, Giacomo; Caputo, Regina; Carpenter, Linda; Filipe Castro, Nuno; Gomez Ceballos, Guillelmo; Cheng, Yangyang; Chou, John Paul; Cortes Gonzalez, Arely; Cowden, Chris; D'Eramo, Francesco; De Cosa, Annapaola; De Gruttola, Michele; De Roeck, Albert; De Simone, Andrea; Deandrea, Aldo; Demiragli, Zeynep; DiFranzo, Anthony; Doglioni, Caterina; du Pree, Tristan; Erbacher, Robin; Erdmann, Johannes; Fischer, Cora; Flaecher, Henning; Fox, Patrick J.; Fuks, Benjamin; Genest, Marie-Helene; Gomber, Bhawna; Goudelis, Andreas; Gramling, Johanna; Gunion, John; Hahn, Kristian; Haisch, Ulrich; Harnik, Roni; Harris, Philip C.; Hoepfner, Kerstin; Hoh, Siew Yan; Hsu, Dylan George; Hsu, Shih-Chieh; Iiyama, Yutaro; Ippolito, Valerio; Jacques, Thomas; Ju, Xiangyang; Kahlhoefer, Felix; Kalogeropoulos, Alexis; Kaplan, Laser Seymour; Kashif, Lashkar; Khoze, Valentin V.; Khurana, Raman; Kotov, Khristian; Kovalskyi, Dmytro; Kulkarni, Suchita; Kunori, Shuichi; Kutzner, Viktor; Lee, Hyun Min; Lee, Sung-Won; Liew, Seng Pei; Lin, Tongyan; Lowette, Steven; Madar, Romain; Malik, Sarah; Maltoni, Fabio; Martinez Perez, Mario; Mattelaer, Olivier; Mawatari, Kentarou; McCabe, Christopher; Megy, Theo; Morgante, Enrico; Mrenna, Stephen; Narayanan, Siddharth M.; Nelson, Andy; Novaes, Sergio F.; Padeken, Klaas Ole; Pani, Priscilla; Papucci, Michele; Paulini, Manfred; Paus, Christoph; Pazzini, Jacopo; Penning, Bjorn; Peskin, Michael E.; Pinna, Deborah; Procura, Massimiliano; Qazi, Shamona F.; Racco, Davide; Re, Emanuele; Riotto, Antonio; Rizzo, Thomas G.; Roehrig, Rainer; Salek, David; Sanchez Pineda, Arturo; Sarkar, Subir; Schmidt, Alexander; Schramm, Steven Randolph; Shepherd, William; Singh, Gurpreet; Soffi, Livia; Srimanobhas, Norraphat; Sung, Kevin; Tait, Tim M.P.; Theveneaux-Pelzer, Timothee; Thomas, Marc; Tosi, Mia; Trocino, Daniele; Undleeb, Sonaina; Vichi, Alessandro; Wang, Fuquan; Wang, Lian-Tao; Wang, Ren-Jie; Whallon, Nikola; Worm, Steven; Wu, Mengqing; Wu, Sau Lan; Yang, Hongtao; Yang, Yong; Yu, Shin-Shan; Zaldivar, Bryan; Zanetti, Marco; Zhang, Zhiqing; Zucchetta, Alberto

    2015-01-01

    This document is the final report of the ATLAS-CMS Dark Matter Forum, a forum organized by the ATLAS and CMS collaborations with the participation of experts on theories of Dark Matter, to select a minimal basis set of dark matter simplified models that should support the design of the early LHC Run-2 searches. A prioritized, compact set of benchmark models is proposed, accompanied by studies of the parameter space of these models and a repository of generator implementations. This report also addresses how to apply the Effective Field Theory formalism for collider searches and present the results of such interpretations.

  6. Spatial clustering and meteorological drivers of summer ozone in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carro-Calvo, Leopoldo; Ordóñez, Carlos; García-Herrera, Ricardo; Schnell, Jordan L.

    2017-10-01

    We have applied the k-means clustering technique on a maximum daily 8-h running average near-surface ozone (MDA8 O3) gridded dataset over Europe at 1° × 1° resolution for summer 1998-2012. This has resulted in a spatial division of nine regions where ozone presents coherent spatiotemporal patterns. The role of meteorology in the variability of ozone at different time scales has been investigated by using daily meteorological fields from the NCEP-NCAR meteorological reanalysis. In the five regions of central-southern Europe ozone extremes (exceedances of the summer 95th percentile) occur mostly under anticyclonic circulation or weak sea level pressure gradients which trigger elevated temperatures and the recirculation of air masses. In the four northern regions extremes are associated with high-latitude anticyclones that divert the typical westerly flow at those latitudes and cause the advection of aged air masses from the south. The impact of meteorology on the day-to-day variability of ozone has been assessed by means of two different types of multiple linear models. These include as predictors meteorological fields averaged within the regions (;region-based; approach) or synoptic indices indicating the degree of resemblance between the daily meteorological fields over a large domain (25°-70° N, 35° W - 35° E) and their corresponding composites for extreme ozone days (;index-based; approach). With the first approach, a reduced set of variables, always including daily maximum temperature within the region, explains 47-66% of the variability (adjusted R2) in central-southern Europe, while more complex models are needed to explain 27-49% of the variability in the northern regions. The index-based approach yields better results for the regions of northern Europe, with adjusted R2 = 40-57%. Finally, both methodologies have also been applied to reproduce the interannual variability of ozone, with the best models explaining 66-88% of the variance in central

  7. 100 Years of Army Artillery Meteorology: A Brief Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-02-01

    history , meteorological observation systems, meteorological model applications, operational meteorological systems 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF...effects on artillery, and aspects of meteorological models. The MM5 was initialized with data from a large-scale model (the Navy Operational Global ...who have other primary duties. In addition the Global Forecast System (GFS), also sent from the AFWA/557 WW, replaced the NOGAPS as the large scale

  8. Up and running with AutoCAD 2014 2D and 3D drawing and modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Gindis, Elliot

    2013-01-01

    Get ""Up and Running"" with AutoCAD using Gindis's combination of step-by-step instruction, examples, and insightful explanations. The emphasis from the beginning is on core concepts and practical application of AutoCAD in architecture, engineering and design. Equally useful in instructor-led classroom training, self-study, or as a professional reference, the book is written with the user in mind by a long-time AutoCAD professional and instructor based on what works in the industry and the classroom. Strips away complexities, both real and perceived, and reduces AutoCAD t

  9. Studying the effect of meteorological factors on the SO2 and PM10 pollution levels with refined versions of the SARIMA model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voynikova, D. S., E-mail: desi-sl2000@yahoo.com; Gocheva-Ilieva, S. G., E-mail: snegocheva@yahoo.com; Ivanov, A. V., E-mail: aivanov-99@yahoo.com [Department of Applied Mathematics and Modeling, Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics, Paisii Hilendarski University of Plovdiv, 24 Tzar Assen str., 4000 Plovdiv (Bulgaria); Iliev, I. P., E-mail: iliev55@abv.bg [Department of Physics, Technical University – Plovdiv, 25 Tzanko Djusstabanov str., 4000 Plovdiv (Bulgaria)

    2015-10-28

    Numerous time series methods are used in environmental sciences allowing the detailed investigation of air pollution processes. The goal of this study is to present the empirical analysis of various aspects of stochastic modeling and in particular the ARIMA/SARIMA methods. The subject of investigation is air pollution in the town of Kardzhali, Bulgaria with 2 problematic pollutants – sulfur dioxide (SO2) and particulate matter (PM10). Various SARIMA Transfer Function models are built taking into account meteorological factors, data transformations and the use of different horizons selected to predict future levels of concentrations of the pollutants.

  10. Simulations over South Asia using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem: set-up and meteorological evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Kumar

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The configuration and evaluation of the meteorology is presented for simulations over the South Asian region using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem. Temperature, water vapor, dew point temperature, zonal and meridional wind components, precipitation and tropopause pressure are evaluated against radiosonde and satellite-borne (AIRS and TRMM observations along with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis fields for the year 2008. Chemical fields, with focus on tropospheric ozone, are evaluated in a companion paper. The spatial and temporal variability in meteorological variables is well simulated by the model with temperature, dew point temperature and precipitation showing higher values during summer/monsoon and lower during winter. The index of agreement for all the parameters is estimated to be greater than 0.6 indicating that WRF-Chem is capable of simulating the variations around the observed mean. The mean bias (MB and root mean square error (RMSE in modeled temperature, water vapor and wind components show an increasing tendency with altitude. MB and RMSE values are within ±2 K and 1–4 K for temperature, 30% and 20–65% for water vapor and 1.6 m s−1 and 5.1 m s−1 for wind components. The spatio-temporal variability of precipitation is also reproduced reasonably well by the model but the model overestimates precipitation in summer and underestimates precipitation during other seasons. Such a behavior of modeled precipitation is in agreement with previous studies on South Asian monsoon. The comparison with radiosonde observations indicates a relatively better model performance for inland sites as compared to coastal and island sites. The MB and RMSE in tropopause pressure are estimated to be less than 25 hPa. Sensitivity simulations show that biases in meteorological simulations can introduce errors of ±(10–25% in simulations of tropospheric ozone, CO and NO

  11. Meteorological Monitoring Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hancock, H.A. Jr. [ed.; Parker, M.J.; Addis, R.P.

    1994-09-01

    The purpose of this technical report is to provide a comprehensive, detailed overview of the meteorological monitoring program at the Savannah River Site (SRS) near Aiken, South Carolina. The principle function of the program is to provide current, accurate meteorological data as input for calculating the transport and diffusion of any unplanned release of an atmospheric pollutant. The report is recommended for meteorologists, technicians, or any personnel who require an in-depth understanding of the meteorological monitoring program.

  12. Inverse dynamic modelling of jumping in the red-legged running frog,Kassina maculata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porro, Laura B; Collings, Amber J; Eberhard, Enrico A; Chadwick, Kyle P; Richards, Christopher T

    2017-05-15

    Although the red-legged running frog, Kassina maculata , is secondarily a walker/runner, it retains the capacity for multiple locomotor modes, including jumping at a wide range of angles (nearly 70 deg). Using simultaneous hind limb kinematics and single-foot ground reaction forces, we performed inverse dynamics analyses to calculate moment arms and torques about the hind limb joints during jumping at different angles in K. maculata. We show that forward thrust is generated primarily at the hip and ankle, while body elevation is primarily driven by the ankle. Steeper jumps are achieved by increased thrust at the hip and ankle and greater downward rotation of the distal limb segments. Because of its proximity to the GRF vector, knee posture appears to be important in controlling torque directions about this joint and, potentially, torque magnitudes at more distal joints. Other factors correlated with higher jump angles include increased body angle in the preparatory phase, faster joint openings and increased joint excursion, higher ventrally directed force, and greater acceleration and velocity. Finally, we demonstrate that jumping performance in K. maculata does not appear to be compromised by presumed adaptation to walking/running. Our results provide new insights into how frogs engage in a wide range of locomotor behaviours and the multi-functionality of anuran limbs. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  13. Lectures in Micro Meteorology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Søren Ejling

    This report contains the notes from my lectures on Micro scale meteorology at the Geophysics Department of the Niels Bohr Institute of Copenhagen University. In the period 1993-2012, I was responsible for this course at the University. At the start of the course, I decided that the text books...... available in meteorology at that time did not include enough of the special flavor of micro meteorology that characterized the work of the meteorology group at Risø (presently of the Institute of wind energy of the Danish Technical University). This work was focused on Boundary layer flows and turbulence...

  14. The effect of two training models on the average changes in running speed in 2400m races

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bolas Nikolaos

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Running at an even pace is, in both physical and tactical aspect, an essential factor when achieving good results in middle and long distance races. The appropriate strategy for running a tactically effective race starts by selecting the optimal running speed. Two models of training lasting for six weeks were applied on the group of subjects (N=43 composed of students from the Faculty of Sport and Physical Education, University of Belgrade. The aim of the study was to determine how the applied models of training would affect the deviations of running speed from the mean values in 2400m races when running for the best result and also, how the applied models of training would affect the improvement of aerobic capacities, showed through maximal oxygen uptake. The analysis of the obtained results showed that no statistically significant differences in the average deviations of running speed from the mean values in 2400m races were recorded in any of the experimental groups either in the initial (G1=2.44±1.74 % and G2=1±0.75 % or the final measurements (G1=3.72±3.69 % and G2=4.57±3.63 %. Although there were no statistically significant differences after training stimulus in either final measurements, the subjects achieved better result, that is, they improved the running speed in the final (G1=4.12±0.48 m/s and G2=4.23±0.31 m/s as compared with the initial measurement (G1=3.7±0.36 m/s and G2=3.84±0.38 m/s. The results of the study showed that in both groups, there was a statistically significant improvement in the final measurement (G1=56.05±6.91 ml/kg/min and G2=59.55±6.95 ml/kg/min as compared to the initial measurement (G1=53.71±7.23 ml/kg/min and G2=54.58±6.49 ml/kg/min regarding the maximal oxygen uptake so that both training models have a significant effect on this variable. The results obtained could have a significant contribution when working with students and school population, assuming that in the lessons of theory and

  15. RUN COORDINATION

    CERN Multimedia

    C. Delaere

    2013-01-01

    Since the LHC ceased operations in February, a lot has been going on at Point 5, and Run Coordination continues to monitor closely the advance of maintenance and upgrade activities. In the last months, the Pixel detector was extracted and is now stored in the pixel lab in SX5; the beam pipe has been removed and ME1/1 removal has started. We regained access to the vactank and some work on the RBX of HB has started. Since mid-June, electricity and cooling are back in S1 and S2, allowing us to turn equipment back on, at least during the day. 24/7 shifts are not foreseen in the next weeks, and safety tours are mandatory to keep equipment on overnight, but re-commissioning activities are slowly being resumed. Given the (slight) delays accumulated in LS1, it was decided to merge the two global runs initially foreseen into a single exercise during the week of 4 November 2013. The aim of the global run is to check that we can run (parts of) CMS after several months switched off, with the new VME PCs installed, th...

  16. Appraisal of Weather Research and Forecasting Model Downscaling of Hydro-meteorological Variables and their Applicability for Discharge Prediction: Prognostic Approach for Ungauged Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, P. K.; Han, D.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.; Bray, M.; Islam, T.; Petropoulos, G.; Gupta, M.

    2015-12-01

    Hydro-meteorological variables such as Precipitation and Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) are the most important variables for discharge prediction. However, it is not always possible to get access to them from ground based measurements, particularly in ungauged catchments. The mesoscale model WRF (Weather Research & Forecasting model) can be used for prediction of hydro-meteorological variables. However, hydro-meteorologists would like to know how well the downscaled global data products are as compared to ground based measurements and whether it is possible to use the downscaled data for ungauged catchments. Even with gauged catchments, most of the stations have only rain and flow gauges installed. Measurements of other weather hydro-meteorological variables such as solar radiation, wind speed, air temperature, and dew point are usually missing and thus complicate the problems. In this study, for downscaling the global datasets, the WRF model is setup over the Brue catchment with three nested domains (D1, D2 and D3) of horizontal grid spacing of 81 km, 27 km and 9 km are used. The hydro-meteorological variables are downscaled using the WRF model from the National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis datasets and subsequently used for the ETo estimation using the Penman Monteith equation. The analysis of weather variables and precipitation are compared against the ground based datasets, which indicate that the datasets are in agreement with the observed datasets for complete monitoring period as well as during the seasons except precipitation whose performance is poorer in comparison to the measured rainfall. After a comparison, the WRF estimated precipitation and ETo are then used as a input parameter in the Probability Distributed Model (PDM) for discharge prediction. The input data and model parameter sensitivity analysis and uncertainty estimation are also taken into account for the PDM calibration and prediction following the Generalised

  17. The hydro-meteorological chain in Piemonte region, North Western Italy - analysis of the HYDROPTIMET test cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Rabuffetti

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The HYDROPTIMET Project, Interreg IIIB EU program, is developed in the framework of the prediction and prevention of natural hazards related to severe hydro-meteorological events and aims to the optimisation of Hydro-Meteorological warning systems by the experimentation of new tools (such as numerical models to be used operationally for risk assessment. The objects of the research are the mesoscale weather phenomena and the response of watersheds with size ranging from 102 to 103 km2. Non-hydrostatic meteorological models are used to catch such phenomena at a regional level focusing on the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF. Furthermore hydrological Quantitative Discharge Forecast (QDF are performed by the simulation of run-off generation and flood propagation in the main rivers of the territory. In this way observed data and QPF are used, in a real-time configuration, for one-way forcing of the hydrological model that works operationally connected to the Piemonte Region Alert System. The main hydro-meteorological events that affected Piemonte Region in the last years are analysed, these are the HYDROPTIMET selected test cases of 14–18 November 2002 and 23–26 November 2002. The results obtained in terms of QPF and QDF offer a basis to evaluate the sensitivity of the whole hydro-meteorological chain to the uncertainties in the numerical simulations. Different configurations of non-hydrostatic meteorological models are also evaluated.

  18. Evaluation of the hydro-meteorological chain in Piemonte Region, north western Italy - analysis of two HYDROPTIMET test cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Rabuffetti

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The HYDROPTIMET Project, Interreg IIIB EU program, is developed in the framework of the prediction and prevention of natural hazards related to severe hydro-meteorological events and aims to the optimisation of Hydro-Meteorological warning systems by the experimentation of new tools (such as numerical models to be used operationally for risk assessment. The object of the research are the Mesoscale weather phenomena and the response of watersheds with size ranging from 102 to 103 km2. Non-hydrostatic meteorological models are used to catch such phenomena at a regional level focusing on the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF. Furthermore hydrological Quantitative Discharge Forecast (QDF are performed by the simulation of run-off generation and flood propagation in the main rivers of the interested territory. In this way observed data and QPF are used, in a real-time configuration, for one-way forcing of the hydrological model that works operationally connected to the Piemonte Region Alert System. The main hydro-meteorological events that interested Piemonte Region in the last years are studied, these are the HYDROPTIMET selected test cases of 14-18 November 2002 and 23-26 November 2002. The results obtained in terms of QPF and QDF offer a sound basis to evaluate the sensitivity of the whole hydro-meteorological chain to the uncertainties in the numerical simulations. Different configurations of non-hydrostatic meteorological models are also analysed.

  19. REAL STOCK PRICES AND THE LONG-RUN MONEY DEMAND FUNCTION IN MALAYSIA: Evidence from Error Correction Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naziruddin Abdullah

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available This study adopts the error correction model to empirically investigate the role of real stock prices in the long run-money demand in the Malaysian financial or money market for the period 1977: Q1-1997: Q2. Specifically, an attempt is made to check whether the real narrow money (M1/P is cointegrated with the selected variables like industrial production index (IPI, one-year T-Bill rates (TB12, and real stock prices (RSP. If a cointegration between the variables, i.e., the dependent and independent variables, is found to be the case, it may imply that there exists a long-run co-movement among these variables in the Malaysian money market. From the empirical results it is found that the cointegration between money demand and real stock prices (RSP is positive, implying that in the long run there is a positive association between real stock prices (RSP and demand for real narrow money (M1/P. The policy implication that can be extracted from this study is that an increase in stock prices is likely to necessitate an expansionary monetary policy to prevent nominal income or inflation target from undershooting.

  20. Fire and forest meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    SA Ferguson; T.J. Brown; M. Flannigan

    2005-01-01

    The American Meteorological Society symposia series on Fire and Forest Meteorology provides biennial forums for atmospheric and fire scientists to introduce and discuss the latest and most relevant research on weather, climate and fire. This special issue highlights significant work that was presented at the Fifth Symposium in Orlando, Florida during 16-20 November...

  1. Large-eddy simulation of turbulent winds during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident by coupling with a meso-scale meteorological simulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakayama, H.; Takemi, T.; Nagai, H.

    2015-06-01

    A significant amount of radioactive material was accidentally discharged into the atmosphere from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant from 12 March 2011, which produced high contaminated areas over a wide region in Japan. In conducting regional-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations, the computer-based nuclear emergency response system WSPEEDI-II developed by Japan Atomic Energy Agency was used. Because this system is driven by a meso-scale meteorological (MM) model, it is difficult to reproduce small-scale wind fluctuations due to the effects of local terrain variability and buildings within a nuclear facility that are not explicitly represented in MM models. In this study, we propose a computational approach to couple an LES-based CFD model with a MM model for detailed simulations of turbulent winds with buoyancy effects under real meteorological conditions using turbulent inflow technique. Compared to the simple measurement data, especially, the 10 min averaged wind directions of the LES differ by more than 30 degrees during some period of time. However, distribution patterns of wind speeds, directions, and potential temperature are similar to the MM data. This implies that our coupling technique has potential performance to provide detailed data on contaminated area in the nuclear accidents.

  2. Evaluation of meteorological fields generated by a prognostic mesoscale model using data collected during the 1993 GMAQS/COAST field study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lolk, N.K.; Douglas, S.G.

    1996-01-01

    In 1993, the US Interior Department's Minerals Management Service (MMS) sponsored the Gulf of Mexico Air Quality Study (GMAQS). Its purpose was to assess potential impacts of offshore petrochemical development on ozone concentrations in nonattainment areas in the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast region as mandated by the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. The GMAQS comprised data collection, data analysis, and applications of an advanced photochemical air quality model, the variable-grid Urban Airshed Model (UAM-V), and a prognostic mesoscale meteorological model (SAIMM -- Systems Applications International Mesoscale Model) to simulate two ozone episodes that were captured during the summer field study. The primary purpose of this paper is to evaluate the SAIMM-simulated meteorological fields using graphical analysis that utilize the comprehensive GMAQS/COAST (Gulf of Mexico Air Quality Study/Coastal Oxidant Assessment for Southeast Texas) database and to demonstrate the ability of the SAIMM to simulate the day-to-day variations in the evolution and structure of the gulf breeze and the mixed layer

  3. A possible model of growth and production of durum wheat (Triticum durum Desf.) in relation to meteorological parameters in Mediterranean environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuttobene, R.; Cosentino, S.; Cavallaro, V.

    1993-01-01

    This research aimed at studying a simulation model to describe the growth and yield of durum wheat in relation to meterological parameters in Mediterranean environment, using data of trials carried out by the Institute of Agronomy and filed crops of the University of Catania in two years and three localities of the Eastern Sicily. The model is divided into four modules which determine separately main phenological phases, leaf area index, total biomass and yield and soil water balance. The model uses air maximum and minimum temperature, photoperiod, solar radiation, rainfall and evaporation from a class A pan. Simulation carried out on the data of the trials showed a good interpretation of the variability of the actual data in relation to meteorological parameters. The model could simulate the variation due to plant density and sowing date. The model should be verified using independent data [it

  4. Wind Power Meteorology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundtang Petersen, Erik; Mortensen, Niels Gylling; Landberg, Lars

    Wind power meteorology has evolved as an applied science, firmly founded on boundary-layer meteorology, but with strong links to climatology and geography. It concerns itself with three main areas: siting of wind turbines, regional wind resource assessment, and short-term prediction of the wind...... resource. The history, status and perspectives of wind power meteorology are presented, with emphasis on physical considerations and on its practical application. Following a global view of the wind resource, the elements of boundary layer meteorology which are most important for wind energy are reviewed......: wind profiles and shear, turbulence and gust, and extreme winds. The data used in wind power meteorology stem mainly from three sources: onsite wind measurements, the synoptic networks, and the re-analysis projects. Wind climate analysis, wind resource estimation and siting further require a detailed...

  5. Meteorological satellite systems

    CERN Document Server

    Tan, Su-Yin

    2014-01-01

    Meteorological Satellite Systems” is a primer on weather satellites and their Earth applications. This book reviews historic developments and recent technological advancements in GEO and polar orbiting meteorological satellites. It explores the evolution of these remote sensing technologies and their capabilities to monitor short- and long-term changes in weather patterns in response to climate change. Satellites developed by various countries, such as U.S. meteorological satellites, EUMETSAT, and Russian, Chinese, Japanese and Indian satellite platforms are reviewed. This book also discusses international efforts to coordinate meteorological remote sensing data collection and sharing. This title provides a ready and quick reference for information about meteorological satellites. It serves as a useful tool for a broad audience that includes students, academics, private consultants, engineers, scientists, and teachers.

  6. Running Club

    CERN Multimedia

    Running Club

    2011-01-01

    The cross country running season has started well this autumn with two events: the traditional CERN Road Race organized by the Running Club, which took place on Tuesday 5th October, followed by the ‘Cross Interentreprises’, a team event at the Evaux Sports Center, which took place on Saturday 8th October. The participation at the CERN Road Race was slightly down on last year, with 65 runners, however the participants maintained the tradition of a competitive yet friendly atmosphere. An ample supply of refreshments before the prize giving was appreciated by all after the race. Many thanks to all the runners and volunteers who ensured another successful race. The results can be found here: https://espace.cern.ch/Running-Club/default.aspx CERN participated successfully at the cross interentreprises with very good results. The teams succeeded in obtaining 2nd and 6th place in the Mens category, and 2nd place in the Mixed category. Congratulations to all. See results here: http://www.c...

  7. RUN COORDINATION

    CERN Multimedia

    Christophe Delaere

    2013-01-01

    The focus of Run Coordination during LS1 is to monitor closely the advance of maintenance and upgrade activities, to smooth interactions between subsystems and to ensure that all are ready in time to resume operations in 2015 with a fully calibrated and understood detector. After electricity and cooling were restored to all equipment, at about the time of the last CMS week, recommissioning activities were resumed for all subsystems. On 7 October, DCS shifts began 24/7 to allow subsystems to remain on to facilitate operations. That culminated with the Global Run in November (GriN), which   took place as scheduled during the week of 4 November. The GriN has been the first centrally managed operation since the beginning of LS1, and involved all subdetectors but the Pixel Tracker presently in a lab upstairs. All nights were therefore dedicated to long stable runs with as many subdetectors as possible. Among the many achievements in that week, three items may be highlighted. First, the Strip...

  8. RUN COORDINATION

    CERN Multimedia

    M. Chamizo

    2012-01-01

      On 17th January, as soon as the services were restored after the technical stop, sub-systems started powering on. Since then, we have been running 24/7 with reduced shift crew — Shift Leader and DCS shifter — to allow sub-detectors to perform calibration, noise studies, test software upgrades, etc. On 15th and 16th February, we had the first Mid-Week Global Run (MWGR) with the participation of most sub-systems. The aim was to bring CMS back to operation and to ensure that we could run after the winter shutdown. All sub-systems participated in the readout and the trigger was provided by a fraction of the muon systems (CSC and the central RPC wheel). The calorimeter triggers were not available due to work on the optical link system. Initial checks of different distributions from Pixels, Strips, and CSC confirmed things look all right (signal/noise, number of tracks, phi distribution…). High-rate tests were done to test the new CSC firmware to cure the low efficiency ...

  9. Parallel runs of a large air pollution model on a grid of Sun computers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alexandrov, V.N.; Owczarz, W.; Thomsen, Per Grove

    2004-01-01

    Large -scale air pollution models can successfully be used in different environmental studies. These models are described mathematically by systems of partial differential equations. Splitting procedures followed by discretization of the spatial derivatives leads to several large systems of ordin...

  10. Development of a statistical model to identify spatial and meteorological drivers of elevated O3 in Nevada and its application to other rural mountainous regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fine, Rebekka; Miller, Matthieu B; Gustin, Mae Sexauer

    2015-10-15

    Measurements of O3 at relatively remote monitoring sites are useful for quantifying baseline O3, and subsequently the magnitude of O3 not controllable by local regulations. As the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for O3 becomes more stringent, there is an increased need to quantify baseline O3 particularly in the Western US, where regional and global sources can significantly enhance O3 measured at surface sites, yielding baseline mixing ratios approaching or exceeding the NAAQS threshold. Past work has indicated that meteorological conditions as well as site specific spatial characteristics (e.g. elevation, basin size, gradient) are significantly correlated with O3 intercepted at rural monitoring sites. Here, we use 3 years of measurements from sites throughout rural Nevada to develop a categorical tree model to identify spatial and meteorological characteristics that are associated with elevated baseline O3. Data from other sites in the Intermountain Western US are used to test the applicability of the model for sites throughout the region. Our analyses indicate that increased elevation and basin size were associated with increased frequency of elevated O3. On a daily time scale, relative humidity had the strongest association with observed MDA8 O3. Seventy-four percent of MDA8 O3 observations>60 ppbv occurred when daily minimum relative humidity was 60 ppbv whereas including upper air meteorological measurements improved the accuracy of predicting periods when O3 was >60 ppbv. These findings indicate that transport, rather than local production, influences O3 measurements in Nevada, and that high elevation sites in rural Nevada, are representative of baseline conditions in the Intermountain Western US. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 2. Simulation Analysis Using the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-12-01

    An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

  12. Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 1. The Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-12-01

    An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

  13. Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 3. Appendices to the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-12-01

    An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

  14. Modelling Energy Loss Mechanisms and a Determination of the Electron Energy Scale for the CDF Run II W Mass Measurement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Riddick, Thomas [Univ. College London, Bloomsbury (United Kingdom)

    2012-06-15

    The calibration of the calorimeter energy scale is vital to measuring the mass of the W boson at CDF Run II. For the second measurement of the W boson mass at CDF Run II, two independent simulations were developed. This thesis presents a detailed description of the modification and validation of Bremsstrahlung and pair production modelling in one of these simulations, UCL Fast Simulation, comparing to both geant4 and real data where appropriate. The total systematic uncertainty on the measurement of the W boson mass in the W → eve channel from residual inaccuracies in Bremsstrahlung modelling is estimated as 6.2 ±3.2 MeV/c2 and the total systematic uncertainty from residual inaccuracies in pair production modelling is estimated as 2.8± 2.7 MeV=c2. Two independent methods are used to calibrate the calorimeter energy scale in UCL Fast Simulation; the results of these two methods are compared to produce a measurement of the Z boson mass as a cross-check on the accuracy of the simulation.

  15. Surface meteorology and Solar Energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stackhouse, Paul W. (Principal Investigator)

    The Release 5.1 Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) data contains parameters formulated for assessing and designing renewable energy systems. Parameters fall under 11 categories including: Solar cooking, solar thermal applications, solar geometry, tilted solar panels, energy storage systems, surplus product storage systems, cloud information, temperature, wind, other meteorological factors, and supporting information. This latest release contains new parameters based on recommendations by the renewable energy industry and it is more accurate than previous releases. On-line plotting capabilities allow quick evaluation of potential renewable energy projects for any region of the world. The SSE data set is formulated from NASA satellite- and reanalysis-derived insolation and meteorological data for the 10-year period July 1983 through June 1993. Results are provided for 1 degree latitude by 1 degree longitude grid cells over the globe. Average daily and monthly measurements for 1195 World Radiation Data Centre ground sites are also available. [Mission Objectives] The SSE project contains insolation and meteorology data intended to aid in the development of renewable energy systems. Collaboration between SSE and technology industries such as the Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables ( HOMER ) may aid in designing electric power systems that employ some combination of wind turbines, photovoltaic panels, or diesel generators to produce electricity. [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1983-07-01; Stop_Date=1993-06-30] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180].

  16. Running multilevel models in MLwiN from within Stata: runmlwin

    OpenAIRE

    George Leckie; Chris Charlton

    2011-01-01

    Multilevel analysis is the statistical modeling of hierarchical and nonhierarchical clustered data. These data structures are common in social and medical sciences. Stata provides the xtmixed, xtmelogit, and xtmepoisson commands for fitting multilevel models, but these are only relevant for univariate continuous, binary, and count response variables, respectively. A much wider range of multilevel models can be fit using the user-written gllamm command, but gllamm can be computationally slow f...

  17. The short-run dynamics of optimal growyh models with delays

    OpenAIRE

    Collard, Fabrice; Licandro, Omar; Puch, Luis A.

    2003-01-01

    Differential equations with advanced and delayed time arguments may arise in the optimality conditions of simple growth models with delays. Models with investment gestation lags (time-to-build), consumption gestation lags (habit formation) or learning by using lie in this category. In this paper, we propose a shooting method to deal with leads and lags in the Euler system associated to dynamic general equilibrium models in continuous time. We introduce the discussion describing the dynamic...

  18. FleaTickRisk: a meteorological model developed to monitor and predict the activity and density of three tick species and the cat flea in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric Beugnet

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical modelling is quite a recent tool in epidemiology. Geographical information system (GIS combined with remote sensing (data collection and analysis provide valuable models, but the integration of climatologic models in parasitology and epidemiology is less common. The aim of our model, called “FleaTickRisk”, was to use meteorological data and forecasts to monitor the activity and density of some arthropods. Our parasitological model uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF meteorological model integrating biological parameters. The WRF model provides a temperature and humidity picture four times a day (at 6:00, 12:00, 18:00 and 24:00 hours. Its geographical resolution is 27 x 27 km over Europe (area between longitudes 10.5° W and 30° E and latitudes 37.75° N and 62° N. The model also provides weekly forecasts. Past data were compared and revalidated using current meteorological data generated by ground stations and weather satellites. The WRF model also includes geographical information stemming from United States Geophysical Survey biotope maps with a 30’’ spatial resolution (approximately 900 x 900 m. WRF takes into account specific climatic conditions due to valleys, altitudes, lakes and wind specificities. The biological parameters of Ixodes ricinus, Dermacentor reticulatus, Rhipicephalus sanguineus and Ctenocephalides felis felis were transformed into a matrix of activity. This activity matrix is expressed as a percentage, ranging from 0 to 100, for each interval of temperature x humidity. The activity of these arthropods is defined by their ability to infest hosts, take blood meals and reproduce. For each arthropod, the matrix was calculated using existing data collected under optimal temperature and humidity conditions, as well as the timing of the life cycle. The mathematical model integrating both the WRF model (meteorological data + geographical data and the biological matrix provides two indexes: an

  19. Fuzzy rule-based macroinvertebrate habitat suitability models for running waters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broekhoven, Van E.; Adriaenssens, V.; Baets, De B.; Verdonschot, P.F.M.

    2006-01-01

    A fuzzy rule-based approach was applied to a macroinvertebrate habitat suitability modelling problem. The model design was based on a knowledge base summarising the preferences and tolerances of 86 macroinvertebrate species for four variables describing river sites in springs up to small rivers in

  20. The Monetary Exchange Rate Model as a Long-Run Phenomenon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.J.J. Groen (Jan)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractPure time series-based tests fail to find empirical support for monetary exchange rate models. In this paper we apply pooled time series estimation on a forward-looking monetary model, resulting in parameter estimates which are in compliance with the underlying theory. Based on a panel

  1. RUN COORDINATION

    CERN Multimedia

    G. Rakness.

    2013-01-01

    After three years of running, in February 2013 the era of sub-10-TeV LHC collisions drew to an end. Recall, the 2012 run had been extended by about three months to achieve the full complement of high-energy and heavy-ion physics goals prior to the start of Long Shutdown 1 (LS1), which is now underway. The LHC performance during these exciting years was excellent, delivering a total of 23.3 fb–1 of proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV, 6.2 fb–1 at 7 TeV, and 5.5 pb–1 at 2.76 TeV. They also delivered 170 μb–1 lead-lead collisions at 2.76 TeV/nucleon and 32 nb–1 proton-lead collisions at 5 TeV/nucleon. During these years the CMS operations teams and shift crews made tremendous strides to commission the detector, repeatedly stepping up to meet the challenges at every increase of instantaneous luminosity and energy. Although it does not fully cover the achievements of the teams, a way to quantify their success is the fact that that...

  2. Radionuclide transport in running waters, sensitivity analysis of bed-load, channel geometry and model discretisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonsson, Karin; Elert, Mark

    2006-08-01

    In this report, further investigations of the model concept for radionuclide transport in stream, developed in the SKB report TR-05-03 is presented. Especially three issues have been the focus of the model investigations. The first issue was to investigate the influence of assumed channel geometry on the simulation results. The second issue was to reconsider the applicability of the equation for the bed-load transport in the stream model, and finally the last issue was to investigate how the model discretisation will influence the simulation results. The simulations showed that there were relatively small differences in results when applying different cross-sections in the model. The inclusion of the exact shape of the cross-section in the model is therefore not crucial, however, if cross-sectional data exist, the overall shape of the cross-section should be used in the model formulation. This could e.g. be accomplished by using measured values of the stream width and depth in the middle of the stream and by assuming a triangular shape. The bed-load transport was in this study determined for different sediment characteristics which can be used as an order of magnitude estimation if no exact determinations of the bed-load are available. The difference in the calculated bed-load transport for the different materials was, however, found to be limited. The investigation of model discretisation showed that a fine model discretisation to account for numerical effects is probably not important for the performed simulations. However, it can be necessary for being able to account for different conditions along a stream. For example, the application of mean slopes instead of individual values in the different stream reaches can result in very different predicted concentrations

  3. Damage Propagation Modeling for Aircraft Engine Run-to-Failure Simulation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper describes how damage propagation can be modeled within the modules of aircraft gas turbine engines. To that end, response surfaces of all sensors are...

  4. Sea Ice Trends in Climate Models Only Accurate in Runs with Biased Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenblum, Erica; Eisenman, Ian

    2017-08-01

    Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice covers. However, in each hemisphere there is a small subset of model simulations that have sea ice trends similar to the observations. Based on this, a number of recent studies have suggested that the models are consistent with the observations in each hemisphere when simulated internal climate variability is taken into account. Here we examine sea ice changes during 1979-2013 in simulations from the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) as well as the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), drawing on previous work that found a close relationship in climate models between global-mean surface temperature and sea ice extent. We find that all of the simulations with 1979-2013 Arctic sea ice retreat as fast as observed have considerably more global warming than observations during this time period. Using two separate methods to estimate the sea ice retreat that would occur under the observed level of global warming in each simulation in both ensembles, we find that simulated Arctic sea ice retreat as fast as observed would occur less than 1% of the time. This implies that the models are not consistent with the observations. In the Antarctic, we find that simulated sea ice expansion as fast as observed typically corresponds with too little global warming, although these results are more equivocal. We show that because of this, the simulations do not capture the observed asymmetry between Arctic and Antarctic sea ice trends. This suggests that the models may be getting the right sea ice trends for the wrong reasons in both polar regions.

  5. Domain-Level Assessment of the Weather Running Estimate-Nowcast (WREN) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-01

    contaminant concentration fields resulting from atmospheric boundary layer depth uncertainty. J App Meteo Clim. 2014;53:2610–2626. Skamarock WC...Center for Atmospheric Research, which has developed a suite of Model Evaluation Tools (MET) to evaluate the accuracy of WRF forecasts. In this...Weather Impacts Decision Aid. WRF is maintained by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which has developed a suite of Model Evaluation Tools

  6. Comparing the performance of SIMD computers by running large air pollution models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brown, J.; Hansen, Per Christian; Wasniewski, J.

    1996-01-01

    To compare the performance and use of three massively parallel SIMD computers, we implemented a large air pollution model on these computers. Using a realistic large-scale model, we gained detailed insight about the performance of the computers involved when used to solve large-scale scientific...... problems that involve several types of numerical computations. The computers used in our study are the Connection Machines CM-200 and CM-5, and the MasPar MP-2216...

  7. US Marine Meteorological Journals

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This series consists of volumes entitled 'Meteorological Journal' (a regulation Navy-issue publication) which were to be completed by masters of merchant vessels...

  8. Lasting Impressions in Meteorology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herold, James M.

    1992-01-01

    Describes activities integrating science and art education in which students examine slides of impressionist paintings or photographs of meteorological phenomena to determine the weather conditions depicted and to make and defend weather predictions. Includes a reproducible worksheet. (MDH)

  9. Wave Meteorology and Soaring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, Scott

    2008-01-01

    This viewgraph document reviews some mountain wave turbulence and operational hazards while soaring. Maps, photographs, and satellite images of the meteorological phenomena are included. Additionally, photographs of aircraft that sustained mountain wave damage are provided.

  10. Impact of treadmill running and sex on hippocampal neurogenesis in the mouse model of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoxing Ma

    Full Text Available Hippocampal neurogenesis in the subgranular zone (SGZ of dentate gyrus (DG occurs throughout life and is regulated by pathological and physiological processes. The role of oxidative stress in hippocampal neurogenesis and its response to exercise or neurodegenerative diseases remains controversial. The present study was designed to investigate the impact of oxidative stress, treadmill exercise and sex on hippocampal neurogenesis in a murine model of heightened oxidative stress (G93A mice. G93A and wild type (WT mice were randomized to a treadmill running (EX or a sedentary (SED group for 1 or 4 wk. Immunohistochemistry was used to detect bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU labeled proliferating cells, surviving cells, and their phenotype, as well as for determination of oxidative stress (3-NT; 8-OHdG. BDNF and IGF1 mRNA expression was assessed by in situ hybridization. Results showed that: (1 G93A-SED mice had greater hippocampal neurogenesis, BDNF mRNA, and 3-NT, as compared to WT-SED mice. (2 Treadmill running promoted hippocampal neurogenesis and BDNF mRNA content and lowered DNA oxidative damage (8-OHdG in WT mice. (3 Male G93A mice showed significantly higher cell proliferation but a lower level of survival vs. female G93A mice. We conclude that G93A mice show higher hippocampal neurogenesis, in association with higher BDNF expression, yet running did not further enhance these phenomena in G93A mice, probably due to a 'ceiling effect' of an already heightened basal levels of hippocampal neurogenesis and BDNF expression.

  11. A description of the FAMOUS (version XDBUA climate model and control run

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Osprey

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available FAMOUS is an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model of low resolution, capable of simulating approximately 120 years of model climate per wallclock day using current high performance computing facilities. It uses most of the same code as HadCM3, a widely used climate model of higher resolution and computational cost, and has been tuned to reproduce the same climate reasonably well. FAMOUS is useful for climate simulations where the computational cost makes the application of HadCM3 unfeasible, either because of the length of simulation or the size of the ensemble desired. We document a number of scientific and technical improvements to the original version of FAMOUS. These improvements include changes to the parameterisations of ozone and sea-ice which alleviate a significant cold bias from high northern latitudes and the upper troposphere, and the elimination of volume-averaged drifts in ocean tracers. A simple model of the marine carbon cycle has also been included. A particular goal of FAMOUS is to conduct millennial-scale paleoclimate simulations of Quaternary ice ages; to this end, a number of useful changes to the model infrastructure have been made.

  12. Measuring Short- and Long-run Promotional Effectiveness on Scanner Data Using Persistence Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.G. Dekimpe (Marnik); D.M. Hanssens (Dominique); V.R. Nijs; J-B.E.M. Steenkamp (Jan-Benedict)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThe use of price promotions to stimulate brand and firm performance is increasing. We discuss how (i) the availability of longer scanner data time series, and (ii) persistence modeling, have lead to greater insights into the dynamic effects of price promotions, as one can now quantify

  13. Renormalization group running of fermion observables in an extended non-supersymmetric SO(10) model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meloni, Davide [Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Università di Roma Tre,Via della Vasca Navale 84, 00146 Rome (Italy); Ohlsson, Tommy; Riad, Stella [Department of Physics, School of Engineering Sciences,KTH Royal Institute of Technology - AlbaNova University Center,Roslagstullsbacken 21, 106 91 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2017-03-08

    We investigate the renormalization group evolution of fermion masses, mixings and quartic scalar Higgs self-couplings in an extended non-supersymmetric SO(10) model, where the Higgs sector contains the 10{sub H}, 120{sub H}, and 126{sub H} representations. The group SO(10) is spontaneously broken at the GUT scale to the Pati-Salam group and subsequently to the Standard Model (SM) at an intermediate scale M{sub I}. We explicitly take into account the effects of the change of gauge groups in the evolution. In particular, we derive the renormalization group equations for the different Yukawa couplings. We find that the computed physical fermion observables can be successfully matched to the experimental measured values at the electroweak scale. Using the same Yukawa couplings at the GUT scale, the measured values of the fermion observables cannot be reproduced with a SM-like evolution, leading to differences in the numerical values up to around 80%. Furthermore, a similar evolution can be performed for a minimal SO(10) model, where the Higgs sector consists of the 10{sub H} and 126{sub H} representations only, showing an equally good potential to describe the low-energy fermion observables. Finally, for both the extended and the minimal SO(10) models, we present predictions for the three Dirac and Majorana CP-violating phases as well as three effective neutrino mass parameters.

  14. Addressing Thermal Model Run Time Concerns of the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope using Astrophysics Focused Telescope Assets (WFIRST-AFTA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peabody, Hume; Guerrero, Sergio; Hawk, John; Rodriguez, Juan; McDonald, Carson; Jackson, Cliff

    2016-01-01

    The Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope using Astrophysics Focused Telescope Assets (WFIRST-AFTA) utilizes an existing 2.4 m diameter Hubble sized telescope donated from elsewhere in the federal government for near-infrared sky surveys and Exoplanet searches to answer crucial questions about the universe and dark energy. The WFIRST design continues to increase in maturity, detail, and complexity with each design cycle leading to a Mission Concept Review and entrance to the Mission Formulation Phase. Each cycle has required a Structural-Thermal-Optical-Performance (STOP) analysis to ensure the design can meet the stringent pointing and stability requirements. As such, the models have also grown in size and complexity leading to increased model run time. This paper addresses efforts to reduce the run time while still maintaining sufficient accuracy for STOP analyses. A technique was developed to identify slews between observing orientations that were sufficiently different to warrant recalculation of the environmental fluxes to reduce the total number of radiation calculation points. The inclusion of a cryocooler fluid loop in the model also forced smaller time-steps than desired, which greatly increases the overall run time. The analysis of this fluid model required mitigation to drive the run time down by solving portions of the model at different time scales. Lastly, investigations were made into the impact of the removal of small radiation couplings on run time and accuracy. Use of these techniques allowed the models to produce meaningful results within reasonable run times to meet project schedule deadlines.

  15. PENGEMBANGAN MODEL PEMBELAJARAN PERMAINAN COLORFUL BALLS RUN UNTUK REAKSI GERAK PADA ANAK TUNAGARHITA DI SLB NEGERI SEMARANG TAHUN 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahadian Yodha Bhakti

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to determine the products of The Development of Learning Colorful Balls Run for Motion Reaction of mentally disabled children of SLB Negeri Semarang grade V in the academic year of 2015.. This research is the development (research and development / R & D, which consists of 10 steps of research, namely the potential and problems, data collection, product design, design validation, design revisions, test products, product revision, trial use, testing products, mass production Because the average obtained from the experts of physical education teacher 80% (good and from learning experts gained 92% (very good. The results of trial I product of small group on cognitive aspects was 83.53% (good, affective aspects was 82.10% (good, psychomotor aspects was 81.39% (good, the average of trial I was 82.34% (good. The results of trial II, the large group in the cognitive aspects was 85.14% (good affective aspects was 83.76% (good psychomotor aspects was 83.07% (good, the average of trial II was 83.99% (good. It was concluded that the development of colorful balls run game model can be used as an alternative to learn sport especially small ball game for V graders of SLB Negeri Semarang.

  16. Quark flavour observables in the Littlest Higgs model with T-parity after LHC Run 1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanke, Monika; Buras, Andrzej J; Recksiegel, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    The Littlest Higgs model with T-parity (LHT) belongs to the simplest new physics scenarios with new sources of flavour and CP violation. The latter originate in the interactions of ordinary quarks and leptons with heavy mirror quarks and leptons that are mediated by new heavy gauge bosons. Also a heavy fermionic top partner is present in this model which communicates with the SM fermions by means of standard [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] gauge bosons. We present a new analysis of quark flavour observables in the LHT model in view of the oncoming flavour precision era. We use all available information on the CKM parameters, lattice QCD input and experimental data on quark flavour observables and corresponding theoretical calculations, taking into account new lower bounds on the symmetry breaking scale and the mirror quark masses from the LHC. We investigate by how much the branching ratios for a number of rare K and B decays are still allowed to depart from their SM values. This includes [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text]. Taking into account the constraints from [Formula: see text] processes, significant departures from the SM predictions for [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] are possible, while the effects in B decays are much smaller. In particular, the LHT model favours [Formula: see text], which is not supported by the data, and the present anomalies in [Formula: see text] decays cannot be explained in this model. With the recent lattice and large N input the imposition of the [Formula: see text] constraint implies a significant suppression of the branching ratio for [Formula: see text] with respect to its SM value while allowing only for small modifications of [Formula: see text]. Finally, we investigate how the LHT physics could be distinguished from other models by means of indirect measurements and

  17. Assessing Wheat Frost Risk with the Support of GIS: An Approach Coupling a Growing Season Meteorological Index and a Hybrid Fuzzy Neural Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaojie Yue

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Crop frost, one kind of agro-meteorological disaster, often causes significant loss to agriculture. Thus, evaluating the risk of wheat frost aids scientific response to such disasters, which will ultimately promote food security. Therefore, this paper aims to propose an integrated risk assessment model of wheat frost, based on meteorological data and a hybrid fuzzy neural network model, taking China as an example. With the support of a geographic information system (GIS, a comprehensive method was put forward. Firstly, threshold temperatures of wheat frost at three growth stages were proposed, referring to phenology in different wheat growing areas and the meteorological standard of Degree of Crop Frost Damage (QX/T 88-2008. Secondly, a vulnerability curve illustrating the relationship between frost hazard intensity and wheat yield loss was worked out using hybrid fuzzy neural network model. Finally, the wheat frost risk was assessed in China. Results show that our proposed threshold temperatures are more suitable than using 0 °C in revealing the spatial pattern of frost occurrence, and hybrid fuzzy neural network model can further improve the accuracy of the vulnerability curve of wheat subject to frost with limited historical hazard records. Both these advantages ensure the precision of wheat frost risk assessment. In China, frost widely distributes in 85.00% of the total winter wheat planting area, but mainly to the north of 35°N; the southern boundary of wheat frost has moved northward, potentially because of the warming climate. There is a significant trend that suggests high risk areas will enlarge and gradually expand to the south, with the risk levels increasing from a return period of 2 years to 20 years. Among all wheat frost risk levels, the regions with loss rate ranges from 35.00% to 45.00% account for the largest area proportion, ranging from 58.60% to 63.27%. We argue that for wheat and other frost-affected crops, it is

  18. Quark flavour observables in the Littlest Higgs model with T-parity after LHC Run 1

    CERN Document Server

    Blanke, Monika; Recksiegel, Stefan

    2016-04-02

    The Littlest Higgs Model with T-parity (LHT) belongs to the simplest new physics scenarios with new sources of flavour and CP violation. We present a new analysis of quark observables in the LHT model in view of the oncoming flavour precision era. We use all available information on the CKM parameters, lattice QCD input and experimental data on quark flavour observables and corresponding theoretical calculations, taking into account new lower bounds on the symmetry breaking scale and the mirror quark masses from the LHC. We investigate by how much the branching ratios for a number of rare $K$ and $B$ decays are still allowed to depart from their SM values. This includes $K^+\\to\\pi^+\

  19. The effect of treadmill running on passive avoidance learning in animal model of Alzheimer disease

    OpenAIRE

    Nasrin Hosseini; Hojjatallah Alaei; Parham Reisi; Maryam Radahmadi

    2013-01-01

    Background : Alzheimer′s disease was known as a progressive neurodegenerative disorder in the elderly and is characterized by dementia and severe neuronal loss in the some regions of brain such as nucleus basalis magnocellularis. It plays an important role in the brain functions such as learning and memory. Loss of cholinergic neurons of nucleus basalis magnocellularis by ibotenic acid can commonly be regarded as a suitable model of Alzheimer′s disease. Previous studies reported that exercise...

  20. Presentation of the EURODELTA III intercomparison exercise – evaluation of the chemistry transport models' performance on criteria pollutants and joint analysis with meteorology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Bessagnet

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The EURODELTA III exercise has facilitated a comprehensive intercomparison and evaluation of chemistry transport model performances. Participating models performed calculations for four 1-month periods in different seasons in the years 2006 to 2009, allowing the influence of different meteorological conditions on model performances to be evaluated. The exercise was performed with strict requirements for the input data, with few exceptions. As a consequence, most of differences in the outputs will be attributed to the differences in model formulations of chemical and physical processes. The models were evaluated mainly for background rural stations in Europe. The performance was assessed in terms of bias, root mean square error and correlation with respect to the concentrations of air pollutants (NO2, O3, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5, as well as key meteorological variables. Though most of meteorological parameters were prescribed, some variables like the planetary boundary layer (PBL height and the vertical diffusion coefficient were derived in the model preprocessors and can partly explain the spread in model results. In general, the daytime PBL height is underestimated by all models. The largest variability of predicted PBL is observed over the ocean and seas. For ozone, this study shows the importance of proper boundary conditions for accurate model calculations and then on the regime of the gas and particle chemistry. The models show similar and quite good performance for nitrogen dioxide, whereas they struggle to accurately reproduce measured sulfur dioxide concentrations (for which the agreement with observations is the poorest. In general, the models provide a close-to-observations map of particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations over Europe rather with correlations in the range 0.4–0.7 and a systematic underestimation reaching −10 µg m−3 for PM10. The highest concentrations are much more underestimated, particularly in

  1. Design of ProjectRun21

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damsted, Camma; Parner, Erik Thorlund; Sørensen, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    training, the runners' running experience and pace abilities can be used as estimates for load capacity. Since no evidence-based knowledge exist of how to plan appropriate half-marathon running schedules considering the level of running experience and running pace, the aim of ProjectRun21 is to investigate...... of three half-marathon running schedules developed for the study. Running data will be collected objectively by GPS. Injury will be based on the consensus-based time loss definition by Yamato et al.: "Running-related (training or competition) musculoskeletal pain in the lower limbs that causes...... the exposure to running is pre-fixed in the running schedules and thereby conditioned by design. Time-to-event models will be used for analytical purposes. DISCUSSION: ProjectRun21 will examine if particular subgroups of runners with certain running experiences and running paces seem to sustain more running...

  2. Investigation of detailed spatial structure of the Moscow urban heat island with application of the newest meteorological observations and regional climate modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varentsov, Mikhail; Pavel, Konstantinov; Timofey, Samsonov

    2016-04-01

    During the last years, the network of metrological observation in Moscow megacity and its neighborhoods, forming the biggest urban agglomeration in Europe, was significantly extended. Several new weather stations and completely new dense network of air-quality monitoring appears during the last decade. In addition, several microwave meteorological profilers MTP 5, which are available to measure temperature at the heights from 0 to 1000 meters with 50-m resolution, were installed in the city and its surrounding. All these measurements allow revealing undiscovered features of Moscow urban climate and urban heat island (UHI). In our research, bases on this data, we covered several topics related to urban climatology: - Investigation of detailed spatial structure of Moscow UHI and its relationships with building features, such as land use and morphology of the street canyons, obtained by GIS-algorithms according (Samsonov et. al, 2015); - Investigation of three-dimensional structure of the UHI, including its vertical extend and influence on the stratification of the atmosphere, and three-dimensional structure of the urban heat island advection and urban heat plumes; - Application of the newest data for validation of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, coupled with TEB urban scheme (Masson, 2000; Trusilova et. al., 2013), launched for Moscow region with 1-km spatial resolution. References: 1. Masson V. A. Physically-Based Scheme for the Urban Energy Budget in Atmospheric models. Bound. Layer Meteor. 2000. V. 94 (3). P. 357-397. 2. Trusilova K., Früh B., Brienen S., Walter A., Masson V., Pigeon G., Becker P. Implementation of an Urban Parameterization Scheme into the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. V. 52. P. 2296-2311. 3. Samsonov T.E., Konstantinov P.I., Varentsov M.I. Object-oriented approach to urban canyon analysis and its applications in meteorological modeling. Urban Climate. 2015. Vol. 13. P. 122-139.

  3. Influential factors of red-light running at signalized intersection and prediction using a rare events logistic regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Yilong; Wang, Yunpeng; Wu, Xinkai; Yu, Guizhen; Ding, Chuan

    2016-10-01

    Red light running (RLR) has become a major safety concern at signalized intersection. To prevent RLR related crashes, it is critical to identify the factors that significantly impact the drivers' behaviors of RLR, and to predict potential RLR in real time. In this research, 9-month's RLR events extracted from high-resolution traffic data collected by loop detectors from three signalized intersections were applied to identify the factors that significantly affect RLR behaviors. The data analysis indicated that occupancy time, time gap, used yellow time, time left to yellow start, whether the preceding vehicle runs through the intersection during yellow, and whether there is a vehicle passing through the intersection on the adjacent lane were significantly factors for RLR behaviors. Furthermore, due to the rare events nature of RLR, a modified rare events logistic regression model was developed for RLR prediction. The rare events logistic regression method has been applied in many fields for rare events studies and shows impressive performance, but so far none of previous research has applied this method to study RLR. The results showed that the rare events logistic regression model performed significantly better than the standard logistic regression model. More importantly, the proposed RLR prediction method is purely based on loop detector data collected from a single advance loop detector located 400 feet away from stop-bar. This brings great potential for future field applications of the proposed method since loops have been widely implemented in many intersections and can collect data in real time. This research is expected to contribute to the improvement of intersection safety significantly. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. On the energetics of quadrupedal running: predicting the metabolic cost of transport via a flexible-torso model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Qu; Poulakakis, Ioannis

    2015-09-03

    In this paper, the effect of torso flexibility on the energetics of quadrupedal bounding is examined in a template setting. Two reductive sagittal-plane models, one with a rigid, non-deformable torso and one with a flexible, unactuated torso are proposed. Both models feature non-trivial leg mass and inertia to capture the energy associated with repositioning the legs after liftoff as well as the energy lost due to impacts. Bounding motions that minimize the cost of transport are generated for both models via a simple controller that coordinates leg recirculation. Comparisons reveal that torso compliance promotes locomotion efficiency by facilitating leg recirculation in anticipation of touchdown at speeds that are sufficiently high. Furthermore, by considering non-ideal torque generating and compliant elements with biologically reasonable efficiency values, it is shown that the flexible-torso model can predict the metabolic cost of transport for different animals, estimated using measurements of oxygen consumption. This way, the proposed model offers a means for approximating the energetic cost of transport of running quadrupeds in a simple and direct fashion.

  5. Fast Atmosphere-Ocean Model Runs with Large Changes in CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Gary L.; Lacis, Andrew A.; Rind, David H.; Colose, Christopher; Opstbaum, Roger F.

    2013-01-01

    How does climate sensitivity vary with the magnitude of climate forcing? This question was investigated with the use of a modified coupled atmosphere-ocean model, whose stability was improved so that the model would accommodate large radiative forcings yet be fast enough to reach rapid equilibrium. Experiments were performed in which atmospheric CO2 was multiplied by powers of 2, from 1/64 to 256 times the 1950 value. From 8 to 32 times, the 1950 CO2, climate sensitivity for doubling CO2 reaches 8 C due to increases in water vapor absorption and cloud top height and to reductions in low level cloud cover. As CO2 amount increases further, sensitivity drops as cloud cover and planetary albedo stabilize. No water vapor-induced runaway greenhouse caused by increased CO2 was found for the range of CO2 examined. With CO2 at or below 1/8 of the 1950 value, runaway sea ice does occur as the planet cascades to a snowball Earth climate with fully ice covered oceans and global mean surface temperatures near 30 C.

  6. Configuring a Graphical User Interface for Managing Local HYSPLIT Model Runs Through AWIPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, mark M.; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian; VanSpeybroeck, Kurt M.

    2009-01-01

    Responding to incidents involving the release of harmful airborne pollutants is a continual challenge for Weather Forecast Offices in the National Weather Service. When such incidents occur, current protocol recommends forecaster-initiated requests of NOAA's Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model output through the National Centers of Environmental Prediction to obtain critical dispersion guidance. Individual requests are submitted manually through a secured web site, with desired multiple requests submitted in sequence, for the purpose of obtaining useful trajectory and concentration forecasts associated with the significant release of harmful chemical gases, radiation, wildfire smoke, etc., into local the atmosphere. To help manage the local HYSPLIT for both routine and emergency use, a graphical user interface was designed for operational efficiency. The interface allows forecasters to quickly determine the current HYSPLIT configuration for the list of predefined sites (e.g., fixed sites and floating sites), and to make any necessary adjustments to key parameters such as Input Model. Number of Forecast Hours, etc. When using the interface, forecasters will obtain desired output more confidently and without the danger of corrupting essential configuration files.

  7. A 60-year reconstructed high-resolution local meteorological data set in Central Sahel (1950-2009): evaluation, analysis and application to land surface modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leauthaud, Crystele; Cappelaere, Bernard; Demarty, Jérôme; Guichard, Françoise; Velluet, Cécile; Kergoat, Laurent; Vischel, Théo; Grippa, Manuela; Mouhaimouni, Mohammed; Bouzou Moussa, Ibrahim; Mainassara, Ibrahim; Sultan, Benjamin

    2017-04-01

    The Sahel has experienced strong climate variability in the past decades. Understanding its implications for natural and cultivated ecosystems is pivotal in a context of high population growth and mainly agriculture-based livelihoods. However, efforts to model processes at the land-atmosphere interface are hindered, particularly when the multi-decadal timescale is targeted, as climatic data are scarce, largely incomplete and often unreliable. This study presents the generation of a long-term, high-temporal resolution, multivariate local climatic data set for Niamey, Central Sahel. The continuous series spans the period 1950-2009 at a 30-min timescale and includes ground station-based meteorological variables (precipitation, air temperature, relative and specific humidity, air pressure, wind speed, downwelling long- and short-wave radiation) as well as process-modelled surface fluxes (upwelling long- and short-wave radiation,latent, sensible and soil heat fluxes and surface temperature). A combination of complementary techniques (linear/spline regressions, a multivariate analogue method, artificial neural networks and recursive gap filling) was used to reconstruct missing meteorological data. The complete surface energy budget was then obtained for two dominant land cover types, fallow bush and millet, by applying the meteorological forcing data set to a finely field-calibrated land surface model. Uncertainty in reconstructed data was expressed by means of a stochastic ensemble of plausible historical time series. Climatological statistics were computed at sub-daily to decadal timescales and compared with local, regional and global data sets such as CRU and ERA-Interim. The reconstructed precipitation statistics, ˜1°C increase in mean annual temperature from 1950 to 2009, and mean diurnal and annual cycles for all variables were in good agreement with previous studies. The new data set, denoted NAD (Niamey Airport-derived set) and publicly available, can be used

  8. Planned Burn-Piedmont. A local operational numerical meteorological model for tracking smoke on the ground at night: Model development and sensitivity tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gary L. Achtemeier

    2005-01-01

    Smoke from both prescribed fires and wildfires can, under certain meteorological conditions, become entrapped within shallow layers of air near the ground at night and get carried to unexpected destinations as a combination of weather systems push air through interlocking ridge-valley terrain typical of the Piedmont of the Soutthern United States. Entrapped smoke...

  9. Search for the Trilepton Signal of the Minimal Supergravity Model in D0 Run II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Binder, Meta [Munich Univ. (Germany)

    2005-06-01

    A search for associated chargino neutralino pair production is performed in the trilepton decay channel q$\\bar{q}$ → $\\tilde{Χ}$$±\\atop{1}$ $\\tilde{Χ}$$0\\atop{2}$ → ℓ± v $\\tilde{Χ}$$0\\atop{1}$ μ± μ± $\\tilde{Χ}$$0\\atop{1}$, using data collected with the D0 detector at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of ~300 pb-1. A dedicated event selection is applied to all samples including the data sample and the Monte Carlo simulated samples for the Standard Model background and the Supersymmetry signal. Events with two muons plus an additional isolated track, replacing the requirement of a third charged lepton in the event, are analyzed. Additionally, selected events must have a large amount of missing transverse energy due to the neutrino and the two $\\tilde{Χ}$$0\\atop{1}$. After all selection cuts are applied, 2 data events are found, with an expected number of background events of 1.75 ± 0.34 (stat.) ± 0.46 (syst.). No evidence for Supersymmetry is found and limits on the production cross section times leptonic branching fraction are set. When the presented analysis is considered in combination with three other decay channels, no evidence for Supersymmetry is found. Limits on the production cross section times leptonic branching fraction are set. A lower chargino mass limit of 117 GeV at 95% CL is then derived for the mSUGRA model in a region of parameter space with enhanced leptonic branching fractions.

  10. Running Club

    CERN Multimedia

    Running Club

    2010-01-01

    The 2010 edition of the annual CERN Road Race will be held on Wednesday 29th September at 18h. The 5.5km race takes place over 3 laps of a 1.8 km circuit in the West Area of the Meyrin site, and is open to everyone working at CERN and their families. There are runners of all speeds, with times ranging from under 17 to over 34 minutes, and the race is run on a handicap basis, by staggering the starting times so that (in theory) all runners finish together. Children (< 15 years) have their own race over 1 lap of 1.8km. As usual, there will be a “best family” challenge (judged on best parent + best child). Trophies are awarded in the usual men’s, women’s and veterans’ categories, and there is a challenge for the best age/performance. Every adult will receive a souvenir prize, financed by a registration fee of 10 CHF. Children enter free (each child will receive a medal). More information, and the online entry form, can be found at http://cern.ch/club...

  11. RUN COORDINATION

    CERN Multimedia

    Christophe Delaere

    2012-01-01

      On Wednesday 14 March, the machine group successfully injected beams into LHC for the first time this year. Within 48 hours they managed to ramp the beams to 4 TeV and proceeded to squeeze to β*=0.6m, settings that are used routinely since then. This brought to an end the CMS Cosmic Run at ~Four Tesla (CRAFT), during which we collected 800k cosmic ray events with a track crossing the central Tracker. That sample has been since then topped up to two million, allowing further refinements of the Tracker Alignment. The LHC started delivering the first collisions on 5 April with two bunches colliding in CMS, giving a pile-up of ~27 interactions per crossing at the beginning of the fill. Since then the machine has increased the number of colliding bunches to reach 1380 bunches and peak instantaneous luminosities around 6.5E33 at the beginning of fills. The average bunch charges reached ~1.5E11 protons per bunch which results in an initial pile-up of ~30 interactions per crossing. During the ...

  12. RUN COORDINATION

    CERN Multimedia

    C. Delaere

    2012-01-01

      With the analysis of the first 5 fb–1 culminating in the announcement of the observation of a new particle with mass of around 126 GeV/c2, the CERN directorate decided to extend the LHC run until February 2013. This adds three months to the original schedule. Since then the LHC has continued to perform extremely well, and the total luminosity delivered so far this year is 22 fb–1. CMS also continues to perform excellently, recording data with efficiency higher than 95% for fills with the magnetic field at nominal value. The highest instantaneous luminosity achieved by LHC to date is 7.6x1033 cm–2s–1, which translates into 35 interactions per crossing. On the CMS side there has been a lot of work to handle these extreme conditions, such as a new DAQ computer farm and trigger menus to handle the pile-up, automation of recovery procedures to minimise the lost luminosity, better training for the shift crews, etc. We did suffer from a couple of infrastructure ...

  13. Utilization of satellite-derived estimates of meteorological and land surface characteristics in the Land Surface Model for vast agricultural region territory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzylev, Eugene; Startseva, Zoya; Uspensky, Alexander; Volkova, Elena

    2015-04-01

    The method has been elaborated to evaluate the water and heat regime characteristics of the territory on a regional scale for the vegetation season based on a physical-mathematical model of water and heat exchange between vegetation covered land surface and atmosphere (LSM, Land Surface Model) appropriate for using satellite information on land surface and meteorological conditions. The developed model is intended for calculating soil water content, evapotranspiration (evaporation from bare soil and transpiration by vegetation), vertical water and heat fluxes as well as land surface and vegetation cover temperatures and vertical distributions of temperature and moisture in the active soil layer. Parameters of the model are soil and vegetation characteristics and input variables are meteorological characteristics. Their values have been obtained from ground-based observations at agricultural meteorological stations and satellite-based measurements by scanning radiometers AVHRR/NOAA, MODIS/EOS Terra and Aqua and SEVIRI (geostationary satellites Meteosat-9, -10). The AVHRR data have been used to build the estimates of three types of land surface temperature (LST): land skin temperature Tsg, air temperature at a level of vegetation cover Ta and efficient radiation temperature Tseff, emissivity E, normalized vegetation index NDVI, vegetation cover fraction B, leaf area index LAI, and precipitation. The set of estimates derived from MODIS data has comprised values of LST Tls, E, NDVI and LAI. The SEVIRI-based retrievals have included Tls, Ta, Е at daylight and nighttime, LAI (daily) and precipitation. The case study has been carried out for agricultural Central Black Earth region of the European Russia of 227,300 sq.km containing 7 regions of the Russian Federation for years 2009-2013 vegetation seasons. Estimates of described characteristics have been built with the help of the developed original and improved pre-existing methods and technologies of thematic processing

  14. Regional on-road vehicle running emissions modeling and evaluation for conventional and alternative vehicle technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, H Christopher; Zhai, Haibo; Rouphail, Nagui M

    2009-11-01

    This study presents a methodology for estimating high-resolution, regional on-road vehicle emissions and the associated reductions in air pollutant emissions from vehicles that utilize alternative fuels or propulsion technologies. The fuels considered are gasoline, diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, compressed natural gas, hydrogen, and electricity. The technologies considered are internal combustion or compression engines, hybrids, fuel cell, and electric. Road link-based emission models are developed using modal fuel use and emission rates applied to facility- and speed-specific driving cycles. For an urban case study, passenger cars were found to be the largest sources of HC, CO, and CO(2) emissions, whereas trucks contributed the largest share of NO(x) emissions. When alternative fuel and propulsion technologies were introduced in the fleet at a modest market penetration level of 27%, their emission reductions were found to be 3-14%. Emissions for all pollutants generally decreased with an increase in the market share of alternative vehicle technologies. Turnover of the light duty fleet to newer Tier 2 vehicles reduced emissions of HC, CO, and NO(x) substantially. However, modest improvements in fuel economy may be offset by VMT growth and reductions in overall average speed.

  15. Algebraic modeling and thermodynamic design of fan-supplied tube-fin evaporators running under frosting conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ribeiro, Rafael S.; Hermes, Christian J.L.

    2014-01-01

    In this study, the method of entropy generation minimization (i.e., design aimed at facilitating both heat, mass and fluid flows) is used to assess the evaporator design (aspect ratio and fin density) considering the thermodynamic losses due to heat and mass transfer, and viscous flow processes. A fully algebraic model was put forward to simulate the thermal-hydraulic behavior of tube-fin evaporator coils running under frosting conditions. The model predictions were validated against experimental data, showing a good agreement between calculated and measured counterparts. The optimization exercise has pointed out that high aspect ratio heat exchanger designs lead to lower entropy generation in cases of fixed cooling capacity and air flow rate constrained by the characteristic curve of the fan. - Highlights: • An algebraic model for frost accumulation on tube-fin heat exchangers was advanced. • Model predictions for cooling capacity and air flow rate were compared with experimental data, with errors within ±5% band. • Minimum entropy generation criterion was used to optimize the evaporator geometry. • Thermodynamic analysis led to slender designs for fixed cooling capacity and fan characteristics

  16. The 1989 progress report: dynamic meteorology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadourny, R.

    1989-01-01

    The 1989 progress report of the laboratory of Dynamic Meteorology of the Polytechnic School (France) is presented. The aim of the research programs is the dynamic study of climate and environment in relationship with the global athmospheric behavior. The investigations reported were performed in the fields of: climate modelling, dynamic study of Turbulence, analysis of atmospheric radiation and nebulosity, tropical meteorology and climate, Earth radioactive balance, lidar measurements, middle atmosphere studies. The published papers, the conferences and Laboratory staff are listed [fr

  17. Implementation of a micro-physical scheme for warm clouds in the meteorological model 'MERCURE': Application to cooling tower plumes and to orographic precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouzereau, Emmanuel

    2004-01-01

    A two-moment semi-spectral warm micro-physical scheme has been implemented inside the meteorological model 'MERCURE'. A new formulation of the buoyancy flux () is proposed, which is coherent with the corrigendum of Mellor (1977) but differs from Bougeault (1981). The non-precipitating cloud microphysics is validated by comparing the numerical simulations of fifteen cases of cooling tower plumes with data from a measurement campaign in Bugey in 1980. Satisfactory results are obtained on the plumes shape, on the temperature and vertical velocity fields and on the droplets spectrums, although the liquid water contents tend to be overestimated. The precipitating cloud microphysics is tested by reproducing the academical cases of orographic precipitation of Chaumerliac et al. (1987) and Richard and Chaumerliac (1989). The simulations allow a check of the action of different micro-physical terms. (author) [fr

  18. A Hybrid Approach to Online and Traditional Learning during a Boundary Layer Meteorology Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelsey, E. P.; Yarker, M. B.; Mesquita, M. D. S.

    2014-12-01

    This project discusses a case study, where eight graduate students in a Boundary Layer Meteorology course at Plymouth State University collected observation data and ran the WRF model in order to explore the relationships between model output, observation data, and boundary layer theory. At the end of the course, the students drafted a paper highlighting their findings, which has been submitted for publication. As a part of the course, the students were provided with a unique learning opportunity to collect meteorological data for a boundary layer phenomenon of their choice, analyze the data and compare it to theory learned in class, and run a numerical model to test the model forecast skill of the observations. Students had access to the Plymouth State University (PSU) radiosonde system and the Mount Washington Observatory Mesonet stations that measure wind, temperature, and relative humidity. Additionally, they had access to the NCAR Yellowstone supercomputer to run their WRF model simulations. This course used a hybrid approach to learning about running the WRF model, which included the in-class material and an online WRF modelling course. For the purposes of this class, the hybrid approach included having the students take the online tutorial and have weekly videoconference meetings with the online course tutor, who lives in Norway. This, in conjunction with the traditional in-class portion, provided multiple modes of learning WRF, access to more expertise in running numerical models, and an opportunity to meet a foreign researcher. Survey results indicate that the students found it helpful to run the model as a part of understanding the atmosphere. A few students recognized that having experience running a model could help them in their future research if they ever need to run WRF or any other atmospheric research model. Most students report that it was useful to compare model data to observed data in order to evaluate the model and compare their findings to

  19. Meteorology in site operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1986-01-01

    During the site selection and design phases of a plant, meteorological assistance must be based on past records, usually accumulated at stations not actually on the site. These preliminary atadvices will be averages and extremes that might be expected. After a location has been chosen and work has begun, current and forecast weather conditions become of immediate concern. On-site meteorological observations and forecasts have many applications to the operating program of an atomic energy site. Requirements may range from observations of the daily minimum temperatures to forecasts of radiation dosages from airborne clouds

  20. MODEL OF AIRCRAFT ELECTRICAL POWER SUPPLY SYSTEM CHANNEL OF ALTERNATIVE CURRENT RUNNING ON A GENERALIZED UNBALANCED THREE-PHASE LOAD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksej Gennad'evich Demchenko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to mathematical modeling of the channel of AC on-board power supply systems (PSS when running on static active-inductive load, connected on a "wye with neutral" and "delta". The mathematical model of aircraft synchronous generator, electricity distribution, three-phase static active-inductive load are considered. When making a mathematical description the author used the equations for the voltages of windings and flux linkages cir- cuits of the stator and rotor of the generator in a stationary system phase coordinates "ABC". When considering the mathe- matical model of the distribution system, the equations that took into account the drop of the voltages on the active and inductive resistance of the distribution system power wires were used. When considering the mathematical models of three- phase static loads connected on a "wye with neutral" and "delta", the equations that took into account the drop of the volt- ages on the active and inductive resistance loads were used. The matrix equations system of channel PSS AC when running on a generalized three-phase static active-inductive load was obtained. The three phase static loads scheme connected ac- cording to the "delta" scheme was converted to "wye" to simplify the solution of channel PSS AC circuit matrix equations system. The choice of the phase coordinates system "ABC" for the mathematical description of the generator, distribution system and the static load was made due to its advantage over the coordinate system "dq", because the equation written in phase coordinates are valid for symmetric and asymmetric modes of the generator, while the equations written in the coor- dinate system "dq" will be valid only for symmetric modes. As a result of joint solution of the generator equations, distribution system, three-phase static loads there were obtained the formulae for the generator stator winding phases, gen- erator phases currents, the voltage drops on the load

  1. Global O3-CO correlations in a chemistry and transport model during July-August: evaluation with TES satellite observations and sensitivity to input meteorological data and emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Hyun-Deok; Liu, Hongyu; Crawford, James H.; Considine, David B.; Allen, Dale J.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Rodriguez, Jose M.; Strahan, Susan E.; Zhang, Lin; Liu, Xiong; Damon, Megan R.; Steenrod, Stephen D.

    2017-07-01

    We examine the capability of the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry and transport model to reproduce global mid-tropospheric (618 hPa) ozone-carbon monoxide (O3-CO) correlations determined by the measurements from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) aboard NASA's Aura satellite during boreal summer (July-August). The model is driven by three meteorological data sets (finite-volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM) with sea surface temperature for 1995, Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 4 (GEOS-4 DAS) for 2005, and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) for 2005), allowing us to examine the sensitivity of model O3-CO correlations to input meteorological data. Model simulations of radionuclide tracers (222Rn, 210Pb, and 7Be) are used to illustrate the differences in transport-related processes among the meteorological data sets. Simulated O3 values are evaluated with climatological profiles from ozonesonde measurements and satellite tropospheric O3 columns. Despite the fact that the three simulations show significantly different global and regional distributions of O3 and CO concentrations, they show similar patterns of O3-CO correlations on a global scale. All model simulations sampled along the TES orbit track capture the observed positive O3-CO correlations in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude continental outflow and the Southern Hemisphere subtropics. While all simulations show strong negative correlations over the Tibetan Plateau, northern Africa, the subtropical eastern North Pacific, and the Caribbean, TES O3 and CO concentrations at 618 hPa only show weak negative correlations over much narrower areas (i.e., the Tibetan Plateau and northern Africa). Discrepancies in regional O3-CO correlation patterns in the three simulations may be attributed to differences in convective transport, stratospheric influence, and subsidence, among other processes. To understand how various

  2. The effect of plant water stress approach on the modelled energy-, water and carbon balance for Mediterranean vegetation; implications for (agro)meteorological applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhoef, Anne; Egea, Gregorio; Garrigues, Sebastien; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Balan Sarojini, Beena

    2017-04-01

    Current land surface schemes in many crop, weather and climate models make use of the coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance (A-gs) models of plant function to determine the transpiration flux and gross primary productivity. Vegetation exchange is controlled by many environmental factors, and soil moisture control on root water uptake and stomatal function is a primary pathway for feedbacks in sub-tropical to temperate ecosystems. Representations of the above process of soil moisture control on plant function (often referred to as a 'beta' factor) vary among models. This matters because the simulated energy, water and carbon balances are very sensitive to the representation of water stress in these models. Building on Egea et al. (2011) and Verhoef and Egea (2014), we tested a range of 'beta' approaches in a leaf-level A-gs model (compatible with models such as JULES, CHTESSEL, ISBA, CLM), as well as some beta-approaches borrowed from the agronomic, and plant physiological communities (a combined soil-plant hydraulic approach, see Verhoef and Egea, 2014). Root zone soil moisture was allowed to limit plant function via individual routes (via CO2 assimilation, stomatal conductance, or mesophyll conductance) as well as combinations of that. The simulations were conducted for a typical Mediterranean field site (Avignon, France; Garrigues et al., 2015) which provides 14 years of near-continuous measurements of soil moisture and atmospheric driving data. Daytime (8-16 hrs local time) data between April-September were used. This allowed a broad range of atmospheric and soil moisture/vegetation states to be explored. A number of crops and tree types were investigated in this way. We evaluated the effect of choice of beta-function for Mediterranean climates in relation to stomatal conductance, transpiration, photosynthesis, and leaf surface temperature. We also studied the implications for a range of widely used agro-/micro-meteorological indicators such as Bowen ratio

  3. Impact of 2000–2050 climate change on fine particulate matter (PM2.5 air quality inferred from a multi-model analysis of meteorological modes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. Jacob

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Studies of the effect of climate change on fine particulate matter (PM2.5 air quality using general circulation models (GCMs show inconsistent results including in the sign of the effect. This reflects uncertainty in the GCM simulations of the regional meteorological variables affecting PM2.5. Here we use the CMIP3 archive of data from fifteen different IPCC AR4 GCMs to obtain improved statistics of 21st-century trends in the meteorological modes driving PM2.5 variability over the contiguous US. We analyze 1999–2010 observations to identify the dominant meteorological modes driving interannual PM2.5 variability and their synoptic periods T. We find robust correlations (r > 0.5 of annual mean PM2.5 with T, especially in the eastern US where the dominant modes represent frontal passages. The GCMs all have significant skill in reproducing present-day statistics for T and we show that this reflects their ability to simulate atmospheric baroclinicity. We then use the local PM2.5-to-period sensitivity (dPM2.5/dT from the 1999–2010 observations to project PM2.5 changes from the 2000–2050 changes in T simulated by the 15 GCMs following the SRES A1B greenhouse warming scenario. By weighted-average statistics of GCM results we project a likely 2000–2050 increase of ~ 0.1 μg m−3 in annual mean PM2.5 in the eastern US arising from less frequent frontal ventilation, and a likely decrease albeit with greater inter-GCM variability in the Pacific Northwest due to more frequent maritime inflows. Potentially larger regional effects of 2000–2050 climate change on PM2.5 may arise from changes in temperature, biogenic emissions, wildfires, and vegetation, but are still unlikely to affect annual PM2.5 by more than 0.5 μg m−3.

  4. Interim report on the meteorological database

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stage, S.A.; Ramsdell, J.V.; Simonen, C.A.; Burk, K.W.

    1993-01-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project is estimating radiation doses that individuals may have received from operations at Hanford from 1944 to the present. An independent Technical Steering Panel (TSP) directs the project, which is being conducted by the Battelle, Pacific Northwest Laboratories in Richland, Washington. The goals of HEDR, as approved by the TSP, include dose estimates and determination of confidence ranges for these estimates. This letter report describes the current status of the meteorological database. The report defines the meteorological data available for use in climate model calculations, describes the data collection procedures and the preparation and control of the meteorological database. This report also provides an initial assessment of the data quality. The available meteorological data are adequate for atmospheric calculations. Initial checks of the data indicate the data entry accuracy meets the data quality objectives

  5. The Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor (MCIP) for the CMAQ Modeling System: Updates through MCIPv3.4.1

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system is a state-of-the science regional air quality modeling system. The CMAQ modeling system has been primarily developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and it has been publically and freely available for more...

  6. Modelling field scale spatial variation in water run-off, soil moisture, N2O emissions and herbage biomass of a grazed pasture using the SPACSYS model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yi; Li, Yuefen; Harris, Paul; Cardenas, Laura M; Dunn, Robert M; Sint, Hadewij; Murray, Phil J; Lee, Michael R F; Wu, Lianhai

    2018-04-01

    In this study, we evaluated the ability of the SPACSYS model to simulate water run-off, soil moisture, N 2 O fluxes and grass growth using data generated from a field of the North Wyke Farm Platform. The field-scale model is adapted via a linked and grid-based approach (grid-to-grid) to account for not only temporal dynamics but also the within-field spatial variation in these key ecosystem indicators. Spatial variability in nutrient and water presence at the field-scale is a key source of uncertainty when quantifying nutrient cycling and water movement in an agricultural system. Results demonstrated that the new spatially distributed version of SPACSYS provided a worthy improvement in accuracy over the standard (single-point) version for biomass productivity. No difference in model prediction performance was observed for water run-off, reflecting the closed-system nature of this variable. Similarly, no difference in model prediction performance was found for N 2 O fluxes, but here the N 2 O predictions were noticeably poor in both cases. Further developmental work, informed by this study's findings, is proposed to improve model predictions for N 2 O. Soil moisture results with the spatially distributed version appeared promising but this promise could not be objectively verified.

  7. Computer Exercises in Meteorology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trapasso, L. Michael; Conner, Glen; Stallins, Keith

    Beginning with Western Kentucky University's (Bowling Green) fall 1999 semester, exercises required for the geography and meteorology course used computers for learning. This course enrolls about 250 students per year, most of whom choose it to fulfill a general education requirement. Of the 185 geography majors, it is required for those who…

  8. A set of numerical meteorological models for solving basic and some special problems in the Boris Kidric Institute

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grscic, Z.

    1989-01-01

    Models for solving transport and dispersion problems of radioactive pollutants through atmosphere are briefly shown. These models are the base for solving and some special problems such as: estimating effective and physical heights of radioactive sources, computation of radioactive concentration distribution from multiple sources etc (author)

  9. Coupling of Large Eddy Simulations with Meteorological Models to simulate Methane Leaks from Natural Gas Storage Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, K.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric transport is usually performed with weather models, e.g., the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that employs a parameterized turbulence model and does not resolve the fine scale dynamics generated by the flow around buildings and features comprising a large city. The NIST Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) is a computational fluid dynamics model that utilizes large eddy simulation methods to model flow around buildings at length scales much smaller than is practical with models like WRF. FDS has the potential to evaluate the impact of complex topography on near-field dispersion and mixing that is difficult to simulate with a mesoscale atmospheric model. A methodology has been developed to couple the FDS model with WRF mesoscale transport models. The coupling is based on nudging the FDS flow field towards that computed by WRF, and is currently limited to one way coupling performed in an off-line mode. This approach allows the FDS model to operate as a sub-grid scale model with in a WRF simulation. To test and validate the coupled FDS - WRF model, the methane leak from the Aliso Canyon underground storage facility was simulated. Large eddy simulations were performed over the complex topography of various natural gas storage facilities including Aliso Canyon, Honor Rancho and MacDonald Island at 10 m horizontal and vertical resolution. The goal of these simulations included improving and validating transport models as well as testing leak hypotheses. Forward simulation results were compared with aircraft and tower based in-situ measurements as well as methane plumes observed using the NASA Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and the next generation instrument AVIRIS-NG. Comparison of simulation results with measurement data demonstrate the capability of the coupled FDS-WRF models to accurately simulate the transport and dispersion of methane plumes over urban domains. Simulated integrated methane enhancements will be presented and

  10. Voluntary Wheel Running in Mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goh, Jorming; Ladiges, Warren

    2015-12-02

    Voluntary wheel running in the mouse is used to assess physical performance and endurance and to model exercise training as a way to enhance health. Wheel running is a voluntary activity in contrast to other experimental exercise models in mice, which rely on aversive stimuli to force active movement. This protocol consists of allowing mice to run freely on the open surface of a slanted, plastic saucer-shaped wheel placed inside a standard mouse cage. Rotations are electronically transmitted to a USB hub so that frequency and rate of running can be captured via a software program for data storage and analysis for variable time periods. Mice are individually housed so that accurate recordings can be made for each animal. Factors such as mouse strain, gender, age, and individual motivation, which affect running activity, must be considered in the design of experiments using voluntary wheel running. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

  11. How Fast Should an Animal Run When Escaping? An Optimality Model Based on the Trade-Off Between Speed and Accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheatley, Rebecca; Angilletta, Michael J; Niehaus, Amanda C; Wilson, Robbie S

    2015-12-01

    How fast should animals move when trying to survive? Although many studies have examined how fast animals can move, the fastest speed is not always best. For example, an individual escaping from a predator must run fast enough to escape, but not so fast that it slips and falls. To explore this idea, we developed a simple mathematical model that predicts the optimal speed for an individual running from a predator along a straight beam. A beam was used as a proxy for straight-line running with severe consequences for missteps. We assumed that success, defined as reaching the end of the beam, had two broad requirements: (1) running fast enough to escape a predator, and (2) minimizing the probability of making a mistake that would compromise speed. Our model can be tailored to different systems by revising the predator's maximal speed, the prey's stride length and motor coordination, and the dimensions of the beam. Our model predicts that animals should run slower when the beam is narrower or when coordination is worse. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy data - over 200 satellite-derived meteorology and solar energy parameters, monthly averaged from 22 years of data, global solar...

  13. Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Modeling Experiment Using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Lance; Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Case, Jon

    2012-01-01

    A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center began during the 2011-2012 cold season, and continued into the 2012 warm season. The focus was on two frequent U.S. Deep South forecast challenges: the initiation of deep convection during the warm season; and heavy precipitation during the cold season. We wanted to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System in improving the model representation of mesoscale boundaries such as the local sea-, bay- and land-breezes (which often leads to warm season convective initiation); and improving the model representation of slow moving, or quasi-stationary frontal boundaries (which focus cold season storm cell training and heavy precipitation). The NASA products were: the 4-km Land Information System, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with an outer grid with a 9 km spacing and an inner nest with a 3 km grid spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the positive and negative impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

  14. Motivation dimensions for running a marathon: A new model emerging from the Motivation of Marathon Scale (MOMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sima Zach

    2017-09-01

    Conclusion: This study provides a sound and solid framework for studying motivation for physically demanding tasks such as marathon runs, and needs to be similarly applied and tested in studies incorporating physical tasks which vary in mental demands.

  15. Improving SWAT model performance in the upper Blue Nile Basin using meteorological data integration and subcatchment discretization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polanco, Erwin Isaac; Fleifle, Amr; Ludwig, Ralf; Disse, Markus

    2017-09-01

    The Blue Nile Basin is confronted by land degradation problems, insufficient agricultural production, and a limited number of developed energy sources. Hydrological models provide useful tools to better understand such complex systems and improve water resources and land management practices. In this study, SWAT was used to model the hydrological processes in the upper Blue Nile Basin. Comparisons between a Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and a conventional ground weather dataset were done under two sub-basin discretization levels (30 and 87 sub-basins) to create an integrated dataset to improve the spatial and temporal limitations of both datasets. A SWAT error index (SEI) was also proposed to compare the reliability of the models under different discretization levels and weather datasets. This index offers an assessment of the model quality based on precipitation and evapotranspiration. SEI demonstrates to be a reliable additional and useful method to measure the level of error of SWAT. The results showed the discrepancies of using different weather datasets with different sub-basin discretization levels. Datasets under 30 sub-basins achieved Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NS) values of -0.51, 0.74, and 0.84; p factors of 0.53, 0.66, and 0.70; and r factors of 1.11, 0.83, and 0.67 for the CFSR, ground, and integrated datasets, respectively. Meanwhile, models under 87 sub-basins achieved NS values of -1.54, 0.43, and 0.80; p factors of 0.36, 0.67, and 0.77; r factors of 0.93, 0.68, and 0.54 for the CFSR, ground, and integrated datasets, respectively. Based on the obtained statistical results, the integrated dataset provides a better model of the upper Blue Nile Basin.

  16. Prediction of minimum temperatures in an alpine region by linear and non-linear post-processing of meteorological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Barbiero

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Model Output Statistics (MOS refers to a method of post-processing the direct outputs of numerical weather prediction (NWP models in order to reduce the biases introduced by a coarse horizontal resolution. This technique is especially useful in orographically complex regions, where large differences can be found between the NWP elevation model and the true orography. This study carries out a comparison of linear and non-linear MOS methods, aimed at the prediction of minimum temperatures in a fruit-growing region of the Italian Alps, based on the output of two different NWPs (ECMWF T511–L60 and LAMI-3. Temperature, of course, is a particularly important NWP output; among other roles it drives the local frost forecast, which is of great interest to agriculture. The mechanisms of cold air drainage, a distinctive aspect of mountain environments, are often unsatisfactorily captured by global circulation models. The simplest post-processing technique applied in this work was a correction for the mean bias, assessed at individual model grid points. We also implemented a multivariate linear regression on the output at the grid points surrounding the target area, and two non-linear models based on machine learning techniques: Neural Networks and Random Forest. We compare the performance of all these techniques on four different NWP data sets. Downscaling the temperatures clearly improved the temperature forecasts with respect to the raw NWP output, and also with respect to the basic mean bias correction. Multivariate methods generally yielded better results, but the advantage of using non-linear algorithms was small if not negligible. RF, the best performing method, was implemented on ECMWF prognostic output at 06:00 UTC over the 9 grid points surrounding the target area. Mean absolute errors in the prediction of 2 m temperature at 06:00 UTC were approximately 1.2°C, close to the natural variability inside the area itself.

  17. Wheel running from a juvenile age delays onset of specific motor deficits but does not alter protein aggregate density in a mouse model of Huntington's disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Spires Tara L

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Huntington's disease (HD is a neurodegenerative disorder predominantly affecting the cerebral cortex and striatum. Transgenic mice (R6/1 line, expressing a CAG repeat encoding an expanded polyglutamine tract in the N-terminus of the huntingtin protein, closely model HD. We have previously shown that environmental enrichment of these HD mice delays the onset of motor deficits. Furthermore, wheel running initiated in adulthood ameliorates the rear-paw clasping motor sign, but not an accelerating rotarod deficit. Results We have now examined the effects of enhanced physical activity via wheel running, commenced at a juvenile age (4 weeks, with respect to the onset of various behavioral deficits and their neuropathological correlates in R6/1 HD mice. HD mice housed post-weaning with running wheels only, to enhance voluntary physical exercise, have delayed onset of a motor co-ordination deficit on the static horizontal rod, as well as rear-paw clasping, although the accelerating rotarod deficit remains unaffected. Both wheel running and environmental enrichment rescued HD-induced abnormal habituation of locomotor activity and exploratory behavior in the open field. We have found that neither environment enrichment nor wheel running ameliorates the shrinkage of the striatum and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC in HD mice, nor the overall decrease in brain weight, measured at 9 months of age. At this age, the density of ubiquitinated protein aggregates in the striatum and ACC is also not significantly ameliorated by environmental enrichment or wheel running. Conclusion These results indicate that enhanced voluntary physical activity, commenced at an early presymptomatic stage, contributes to the positive effects of environmental enrichment. However, sensory and cognitive stimulation, as well as motor stimulation not associated with running, may constitute major components of the therapeutic benefits associated with enrichment

  18. Virtual Meteorological Center

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Brinzila

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available A virtual meteorological center, computer based with Internet possibility transmission of the information is presented. Circumstance data is collected with logging field meteorological station. The station collects and automatically save data about the temperature in the air, relative humidity, pressure, wind speed and wind direction, rain gauge, solar radiation and air quality. Also can perform sensors test, analyze historical data and evaluate statistical information. The novelty of the system is that it can publish data over the Internet using LabVIEW Web Server capabilities and deliver a video signal to the School TV network. Also the system performs redundant measurement of temperature and humidity and was improved using new sensors and an original signal conditioning module.

  19. Impact of Highly Reflective Materials on Meteorology, PM10 and Ozone in Urban Areas: A Modeling Study with WRF-CHIMERE at High Resolution over Milan (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serena Falasca

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The Urban Heat Island (UHI is a well-known phenomenon concerning an increasing percentage of the world’s population due to the growth rates of metropolitan areas. Given the health and economic implications of UHIs, several mitigation techniques are being evaluated and tested. In this study, we consider the use of highly reflective materials for urban surfaces, and we carried out numerical experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the CHIMERE model in order to investigate the effects of these materials on the meteorology and air quality in the urban area of Milan (Italy. Results show that an increase in albedo from 0.2 to 0.7 for urban roofs, walls and streets leads to a decrease in UHI intensity by up to 2–3 °C and of the planetary boundary layer (PBL height of about 500 m. However, the difference of PM10 and ozone between urban and surrounding areas increases by a factor of about 2, attributable to the reduction of PBL height and wind speed and to the increased reflected solar radiation that may enhance photochemical production during the daytime. Therefore, if anthropogenic emissions are held at the same levels, the potential benefit to the UHI in terms of thermal discomfort may have negative repercussions on air quality.

  20. Meteorological instrumentation for nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, A.C.L. da.

    1983-01-01

    The main requirements of regulatory agencies, concerning the meteorological instrumentation needed for the licensing of nuclear facilities are discussed. A description is made of the operational principles of sensors for the various meteorological parameters and associated electronic systems. Finally, it is presented an analysis of the problems associated with grounding of a typical meteorological station. (Author) [pt

  1. Meteorological instrumentation for nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, A.C.L. da.

    1983-01-01

    The main requirements of regulatory agencies, concerning the meteorological instrumentation needed for the licensing of nuclear facilities are discussed. A description is made of the operational principles of sensors for the various meteorological parameters and associated electronic systems. An analysis of the problems associated with grounding of a typical meteorological station is presented. (Author) [pt

  2. From meteorological to hydrological drought in the Upper Niger Basin: trend and uncertainty analysis in the monitoring and the modeling of rainfall deficits and low flow responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fournet, S.; Aich, V.; Liersch, S.; Hattermann, F. F.

    2012-04-01

    From 1970 to 2002, the Sahel experienced a fairly abrupt, severe and continuous dry episode. The main reason is the oceanic forcing ruling the West African monsoon dynamic. Also, a combinative effect of climate and anthropogenic changes (demographic pressure on land associated to inappropriate land-use practices) initiates and supports the interactive processes of drying and land cover degradation forming a complex land atmosphere feedback convection. The Great Drought in Mali largely affected the regional food security, the human societies and economic development and the conservation of wet and semi-arid ecosystems. It results in an increasing competition and conflicts for water access between vulnerable local stakeholders (rainfed and controlled irrigation farming, nomad pastoralism, traditional fishing) and steers national investments with the construction of dams and diversion channels for development of hydropower energy and fully governed irrigated agriculture. To support drought adaptations in regional development strategies, climate and hydrological forecasting are thus of paramount importance. Whilst climate change is typically associated with an increase in mean global surface temperature, what matters regionally and still remains uncertain is the change in rainfall, discharge and drought patterns from daily intensity to large inter-annual and multi-decadal variability. Different climate data sources exist for investigation of climate variability and change: daily measurements, reanalysis data and climate scenarios using Global and Regional Circulation Models (GCMs and RCMs). This study aims at analyzing the suitability of the different data sources for drought investigation in the target area, the Upper Niger Basin. First, the performance of meteorological data sets based on climate reanalysis is assessed in comparison of data of synoptic stations. Second, one statistical (STAR) and two dynamical regional RCMs (CCLM, REMO) are compared to IPCC-GCM data

  3. Meteorological satellite accomplishments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, L. J.; Arking, A.; Bandeen, W. R.; Shenk, W. E.; Wexler, R.

    1975-01-01

    Meteorological satellites include experimental satellites operated by NASA and operational satellites operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The operational system currently provides pictures of the entire globe, temperature measurements throughout the world, and wind measurements in selected parts of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Aspects of vertical sounding are discussed along with questions of parameter extraction technique development, macroscale phenomena, the heat budget of the earth-atmosphere system and the climate, and studies of ocean surface and hydrology.

  4. Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP : A new semi-closed input-output model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Quanrun; Dietzenbacher, Erik; Los, Bart; Yang, Cuihong

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we propose a new semi-closed input-output model, which reconciles input-output analysis with modern consumption theories. It can simulate changes in household consumption behavior when exogenous stimulus policies lead to higher disposable income levels. It is useful for quantifying

  5. Meteorological modeling of arrival and deposition of fallout at intermediate distances downwind of the Nevada Test Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cederwall, R.T.; Peterson, K.R.

    1990-01-01

    A three-dimensional atmospheric transport and diffusion model is used to calculate the arrival and deposition of fallout from 13 selected nuclear tests at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) in the 1950s. Results are used to extend NTS fallout patterns to intermediate downwind distances (300 to 1200 km). The radioactive cloud is represented in the model by a population of Lagrangian marker particles, with concentrations calculated on an Eulerian grid. Use of marker particles, with fall velocities dependent on particle size, provides a realistic simulation of fallout as the debris cloud travels downwind. The three-dimensional wind field is derived from observed data, adjusted for mass consistency. Terrain is represented in the grid, which extends up to 1200 km downwind of NTS and has 32-km horizontal resolution and 1-km vertical resolution. Ground deposition is calculated by a deposition-velocity approach. Source terms and relationships between deposition and exposure rate are based on work by Hicks. Uncertainty in particle size and vertical distributions within the debris cloud (and stem) allow for some model tuning to better match measured ground-deposition values. Particle trajectories representing different sizes and starting heights above ground zero are used to guide source specification. An hourly time history of the modeled fallout pattern as the debris cloud moves downwind provides estimates of fallout arrival times. Results for event HARRY illustrate the methodology. The composite deposition pattern for all 13 tests is characterized by two lobes extending out to the north-northeast and east-northeast, respectively, at intermediate distances from NTS. Arrival estimates, along with modeled deposition values, augment measured deposition data in the development of data bases at the county level

  6. Extreme meteorological conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Altinger de Schwarzkopf, M.L.

    1983-01-01

    Different meteorological variables which may reach significant extreme values, such as the windspeed and, in particular, its occurrence through tornadoes and hurricanes that necesarily incide and wich must be taken into account at the time of nuclear power plants' installation, are analyzed. For this kind of study, it is necessary to determine the basic phenomenum of design. Two criteria are applied to define the basic values of design for extreme meteorological variables. The first one determines the expected extreme value: it is obtained from analyzing the recurence of the phenomenum in a convened period of time, wich may be generally of 50 years. The second one determines the extreme value of low probability, taking into account the nuclear power plant's operating life -f.ex. 25 years- and considering, during said lapse, the occurrence probabilities of extreme meteorological phenomena. The values may be determined either by the deterministic method, which is based on the acknowledgement of the fundamental physical characteristics of the phenomena or by the probabilistic method, that aims to the analysis of historical statistical data. Brief comments are made on the subject in relation to the Argentine Republic area. (R.J.S.) [es

  7. Implementation of a Model Output Statistics based on meteorological variable screening for short‐term wind power forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ranaboldo, Matteo; Giebel, Gregor; Codina, Bernat

    2013-01-01

    A combination of physical and statistical treatments to post‐process numerical weather predictions (NWP) outputs is needed for successful short‐term wind power forecasts. One of the most promising and effective approaches for statistical treatment is the Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique....... In this study, a MOS based on multiple linear regression is proposed: the model screens the most relevant NWP forecast variables and selects the best predictors to fit a regression equation that minimizes the forecast errors, utilizing wind farm power output measurements as input. The performance of the method...... is evaluated in two wind farms, located in different topographical areas and with different NWP grid spacing. Because of the high seasonal variability of NWP forecasts, it was considered appropriate to implement monthly stratified MOS. In both wind farms, the first predictors were always wind speeds (at...

  8. Simulating the meteorology and PM10concentrations in Arizona dust storms with the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (Wrf-Chem).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyde, Peter; Mahalov, Alex; Li, Jialun

    2017-07-24

    Nine dust storms in south-central Arizona, USA were simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry model (WRF-Chem) at 2-km resolution. The windblown dust emission algorithm was the Air Force Weather Agency model. In comparison with ground-based PM 10 observations, the model unevenly reproduces the dust storm events. The model adequately estimates the location and timing of the events, but it is unable to precisely replicate the magnitude and timing of the elevated hourly concentrations of particles 10 microns and smaller ([PM 10 ]).Furthermore, the model under-estimated [PM 10 ] in highly agricultural Pinal County because it under-estimated surface wind speeds and because the model's erodible fractions of the land surface data were too coarse to effectively resolve the active and abandoned agricultural lands. In contrast, the model over-estimated [PM 10 ] in western Arizona along the Colorado River because it generated daytime sea breezes (from the nearby Gulf of California) whose surface-layer speeds were too strong. In Phoenix the model's performance depended on the event, with both under- and over-estimations partly due to incorrect representation of urban features. Sensitivity tests indicate that [PM 10 ] highly rely on meteorological forcing. Increasing the fraction of erodible surfaces in the Pinal County agricultural areas improved the simulation of [PM 10 ] in that region. Both 24-hr and 1-hr measured [PM 10 ] were, for the most part, and especially in Pinal County, extremely elevated, with the former exceeding the health standard by as much as tenfold and the latter exceeding health-based guidelines by as much as seventy-fold. Monsoonal thunderstorms not only produce elevated [PM 10 ], but also cause flash floods and disrupt water resource deliveries. Given the severity and frequency of these dust storms, and conceding that the modeling system applied in this work did not produce the desired agreement between simulations and

  9. Modelling deposition and air concentration of reduced nitrogen in Poland and sensitivity to variability in annual meteorology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kryza, Maciej; Dore, Anthony J; Błaś, Marek; Sobik, Mieczysław

    2011-04-01

    The relative contribution of reduced nitrogen to acid and eutrophic deposition in Europe has increased recently as a result of European policies which have been successful in reducing SO(2) and NO(x) emissions but have had smaller impacts on ammonia (NH(3)) emissions. In this paper the Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange (FRAME) model was used to calculate the spatial patterns of annual average ammonia and ammonium (NH(4)(+)) air concentrations and reduced nitrogen (NH(x)) dry and wet deposition with a 5 km × 5 km grid for years 2002-2005. The modelled air concentrations of NH(3) and dry deposition of NH(x) show similar spatial patterns for all years considered. The largest year to year changes were found for wet deposition, which vary considerably with precipitation amount. The FRAME modelled air concentrations and wet deposition are in reasonable agreement with available measurements (Pearson's correlation coefficients above 0.6 for years 2002-2005), and with spatial patterns of concentrations and deposition of NH(x) reported with the EMEP results, but show larger spatial gradients. The error statistics show that the FRAME model results are in better agreement with measurements if compared with EMEP estimates. The differences in deposition budgets calculated with FRAME and EMEP do not exceed 17% for wet and 6% for dry deposition, with FRAME estimates higher than for EMEP wet deposition for modelled period and lower or equal for dry deposition. The FRAME estimates of wet deposition budget are lower than the measurement-based values reported by the Chief Inspectorate of Environmental Protection of Poland, with the differences by approximately 3%. Up to 93% of dry and 53% of wet deposition of NH(x) in Poland originates from national sources. Over the western part of Poland and mountainous areas in the south, transboundary transport can contribute over 80% of total (dry + wet) NH(x) deposition. The spatial pattern of the relative contribution of

  10. Women in Meteorology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemone, Margaret A.; Waukau, Patricia L.

    1982-11-01

    The names of 927 women who are or have been active in meteorology or closely related fields have been obtained from various sources. Of these women, at least 500 are presently active. An estimated 4-5% of the total number of Ph.D.s in meteorology are awarded to women. About 10% of those receiving B.S. and M.S. degrees are women.The work patterns, accomplishments, and salaries of employed women meteorologists have been summarized from 330 responses to questionnaires, as functions of age, family status, part- or full-time working status, and employing institutions. It was found that women meteorologists holding Ph.D.s are more likely than their male counterparts to be employed by universities. As increasing number of women were employed in operational meteorology, although few of them were married and fewer still responsible for children. Several women were employed by private industry and some had advanced into managerial positions, although at the present time, such positions remain out of the reach of most women.The subjective and objective effects of several gender-related factors have been summarized from the comments and responses to the questionnaires. The primary obstacles to advancement were found to be part-time work and the responsibility for children. Part-time work was found to have a clearly negative effect on salary increase as a function of age. prejudicated discrimination and rules negatively affecting women remain important, especially to the older women, and affirmative action programs are generally seen as beneficial.Surprisingly, in contrast to the experience of women in other fields of science, women Ph.D.s in meteorology earn salaries comparable of their employment in government or large corporations and universities where there are strong affirmative action programs and above-average salaries. Based on the responses to the questionnaire, the small size of the meteorological community is also a factor, enabling women to become recognized

  11. Assessment of Meteorological Drought Hazard Area using GIS in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The purpose of this study was to make a model of the meteorological drought hazard area using GIS. A set of meteorological drought ... in the GIS, deploying the new model. The final Hazard Map shows that moderate hazard areas (67% of the basin) are much widespread than areas under severe hazard (37% of the basin)

  12. Producing physically consistent and bias free extreme precipitation events over the Switzerland: Bridging gaps between meteorology and impact models

    Science.gov (United States)

    José Gómez-Navarro, Juan; Raible, Christoph C.; Blumer, Sandro; Martius, Olivia; Felder, Guido

    2016-04-01

    Extreme precipitation episodes, although rare, are natural phenomena that can threat human activities, especially in areas densely populated such as Switzerland. Their relevance demands the design of public policies that protect public assets and private property. Therefore, increasing the current understanding of such exceptional situations is required, i.e. the climatic characterisation of their triggering circumstances, severity, frequency, and spatial distribution. Such increased knowledge shall eventually lead us to produce more reliable projections about the behaviour of these events under ongoing climate change. Unfortunately, the study of extreme situations is hampered by the short instrumental record, which precludes a proper characterization of events with return period exceeding few decades. This study proposes a new approach that allows studying storms based on a synthetic, but physically consistent database of weather situations obtained from a long climate simulation. Our starting point is a 500-yr control simulation carried out with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In a second step, this dataset is dynamically downscaled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to a final resolution of 2 km over the Alpine area. However, downscaling the full CESM simulation at such high resolution is infeasible nowadays. Hence, a number of case studies are previously selected. This selection is carried out examining the precipitation averaged in an area encompassing Switzerland in the ESM. Using a hydrological criterion, precipitation is accumulated in several temporal windows: 1 day, 2 days, 3 days, 5 days and 10 days. The 4 most extreme events in each category and season are selected, leading to a total of 336 days to be simulated. The simulated events are affected by systematic biases that have to be accounted before this data set can be used as input in hydrological models. Thus, quantile mapping is used to remove such biases. For this task

  13. Tsengwen Reservoir Watershed Hydrological Flood Simulation Under Global Climate Change Using the 20 km Mesh Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuaki Kimura

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Severe rainstorms have occurred more frequently in Taiwan over the last decade. To understand the flood characteristics of a local region under climate change, a hydrological model simulation was conducted for the Tsengwen Reservoir watershed. The model employed was the Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS, which has a conceptual, distributed rainfall-runoff analysis module and a GIS data-input function. The high-resolution rainfall data for flood simulation was categorized into three terms: 1979 - 2003 (Present, 2015 - 2039 (Near-future, and 2075 - 2099 (Future, provided by the Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM. Ten extreme rainfall (top ten events were selected for each term in descending order of total precipitation volume. Due to the small watershed area the MRI-AGCM3.2S data was downsized into higher resolution data using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The simulated discharges revealed that most of the Near-future and Future peaks caused by extreme rainfall increased compared to the Present peak. These ratios were 0.8 - 1.6 (Near-future/Present and 0.9 - 2.2 (Future/Present, respectively. Additionally, we evaluated how these future discharges would affect the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity, specifically the excess water volume required to be stored while maintaining dam releases up to the dam¡¦s spillway capacity or the discharge peak design for flood prevention. The results for the top ten events show that the excess water for the Future term exceeded the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity and was approximately 79.6 - 87.5% of the total reservoir maximum capacity for the discharge peak design scenario.

  14. Glacier winds in the Rongbuk Valley, north of Mount Everest: 1. Meteorological modeling with remote sensing data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yu; Zhu, Tong; Cai, Xuhui; Lin, Weili; Kang, Ling

    2007-06-01

    Persistent glacier winds blowing from noon to midnight in summer are present in the Rongbuk Valley, north of Mount Everest, with a maximum speed of 10 m s-1 and a vertical thickness as high as 1 km. These glacier winds may bring upper level atmosphere ozone to the surface, having a significant impact on the atmospheric environment. Such phenomena may be typical of the Tibetan Plateau, where most high mountains are covered by snow or glacier ice throughout the year. The Advanced Regional Prediction Model was used to simulate the down-valley flows, using realistic topography but neglecting synoptic winds. The modeling results agree well with the observations obtained in June 2002, revealing that the glacier winds are thermal flows primarily driven by the along-valley temperature gradient between the colder air over the glacier surface and the warmer air over surface areas covered by rock debris, which maintains air advection along the Rongbuk Valley. Downslope winds over the glacier slopes, especially from the western valley side, and the West Rongbuk Glacier, were forced by their inertia farther down into the valley and would intensify the glacier winds. The narrowing of the Rongbuk Valley could also speed up the glacier winds. Sensitivity tests showed that the detailed distribution of the Rongbuk Glacier, delineated by data from the Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus on Landsat 7, plays an important role in glacier winds development. The glacier winds could be much weaker in winter when the area is completely snow covered.

  15. Source fault model of the 2011 off the pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake, estimated from the detailed distribution of tsunami run-up heights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuta, Nobuhisa; Suzuki, Yasuhiro; Sugito, Nobuhiko; Nakata, Takashi; Watanabe, Mitsuhisa

    2015-01-01

    The distribution of tsunami run-up heights generally has spatial variations, because run-up heights are controlled by coastal topography including local-scale landforms such as natural levees, in addition to land use. Focusing on relationships among coastal topography, land conditions, and tsunami run-up heights of historical tsunamis—Meiji Sanriku (1896 A.D.), Syowa Sanriku (1933 A.D.), and Chilean Sanriku (1960 A.D.) tsunamis—along the Sanriku coast, it is found that the wavelength of a tsunami determines inundation areas as well as run-up heights. Small bays facing the Pacific Ocean are sensitive to short wavelength tsunamis, and large bays are sensitive to long wavelength tsunamis. The tsunami observed off Kamaishi during the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake was composed of both short and long wavelength components. We examined run-up heights of the Tohoku tsunami, and found that: (1) coastal areas north of Kamaishi and south of Yamamoto were mainly attacked by short wavelength tsunamis; and (2) no evidence of short wavelength tsunamis was observed from Ofunato to the Oshika Peninsula. This observation coincides with the geomorphologically proposed source fault model, and indicates that the extraordinary large slip along the shallow part of the plate boundary off Sendai, proposed by seismological and geodesic analyses, is not needed to explain the run-up heights of the Tohoku tsunami. To better understand spatial variations of tsunami run-up heights, submarine crustal movements, and source faults, a detailed analysis is required of coastal topography, land conditions, and submarine tectonic landforms from the perspective of geomorphology. (author)

  16. The Mexican hydro-meteorological disasters and climate network (redesclim) as model on outreach decision makers on disaster public policy in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welsh-Rodriguez, C. M.; Rodriguez-Estevez, J. M., Sr.; Romo-Aguilar, M. D. L.; Brito-Castillo, L.; Salinas-Prieto, A.; Gonzalez-Sosa, E.; Pérez-Campuzano, E.

    2017-12-01

    REDESCLIM was designed and develop in 2011 due to a public call from The Science and Technology Mexican Council (CONACYT); CONACYT lead the activities for its organization and development among the academic community. REDESCLIM was created to enhance the capacity of response to hydro-meteorological disasters and climate events through an integrative effort of researchers, technologists, entrepreneurs, politicians and society. Brief summary of our objectives: 1) Understand the causes of disasters, to reduce risks to society and ecosystems 2) Support research and interdisciplinary assessment of the physical processes in natural and social phenomena to improve understanding of causes and impacts 3) Strengths collaboration with academic, government, private and other interdisciplinary networks from Mexico and other countries 4) Build human capacity and promote the development of skills 5) Recommend strategies for climate hazard prevention, mitigation and response, especially for hazard with the greatest impacts in Mexico, such as hurricanes, floods, drought, wild fires and other extremes events. We provide a continues communication channel on members research results to provide scientific information that could be used for different proposes, specificaly for decision makers who are dealing with ecological and hydro meteorological problems that can result in disasters, and provide a services menu based on the members scientific projects, publications, teaching courses, in order to impact public policy as final result. http://www.redesclim.org.mx. So far we have some basic results: Fiver national meetings (participants from 35 countries around the world), 7 Workshops and seminars (virtual and in-person), Climatic data platforms ( http://clicom.mex.cicese.mx, http://clicom-mex.cicese.mx/malla, http://atlasclimatico.unam.mx/REDESCLIM2/ ), climate change scenarios for the general public at http://escenarios.inecc.gob.mx, 14 seed projects, one model to hurricane simulation

  17. Comparison of extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy running models between outsourcing cooperation and rental cooperation conducted in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chih-Kuang; Ko, Ming-Chung; Chen, Shiou-Sheng; Lee, Wen-Kai; Shia, Ben-Chang; Chiang, Han-Sun

    2015-02-01

    We conducted a retrospective study to compare the cost and effectiveness between two different running models for extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (SWL), including the outsourcing cooperation model (OC) and the rental cooperation model (RC). Between January 1999 and December 2005, we implemented OC for the SWL, and from January 2006 to October 2011, RC was utilized. With OC, the cooperative company provided a machine and shared a variable payment with the hospital, according to treatment sessions. With RC, the cooperative company provided a machine and received a fixed rent from the hospital. We calculated the cost of each treatment session, and evaluated the break-even point to estimate the lowest number of treatment sessions to make the balance between revenue and cost every month. Effectiveness parameters, including the stone-free rate, the retreatment rate, the rate of additional procedures and complications, were evaluated. Compared with OC there were significantly less treatment sessions for RC every month (42.6±7.8 vs. 36.8±6.5, p=0.01). The cost of each treatment session was significantly higher for OC than for RC (751.6±20.0 USD vs. 684.7±16.7 USD, p=0.01). The break-even point for the hospital was 27.5 treatment sessions/month for OC, when the hospital obtained 40% of the payment, and it could be reduced if the hospital got a greater percentage. The break-even point for the hospital was 27.3 treatment sessions/month for RC. No significant differences were noticed for the stone-free rate, the retreatment rate, the rate of additional procedures and complications. Our study revealed that RC had a lower cost for every treatment session, and fewer treatment sessions of SWL/month than OC. The study might provide a managerial implication for healthcare organization managers, when they face a situation of high price equipment investment. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  18. Artificial stereo presentation of meteorological data fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasler, A. F.; Desjardins, M.; Negri, A. J.

    1981-01-01

    The innate capability to perceive three-dimensional stereo imagery has been exploited to present multidimensional meteorological data fields. Variations on an artificial stereo technique first discussed by Pichel et al. (1973) are used to display single and multispectral images in a vivid and easily assimilated manner. Examples of visible/infrared artificial stereo are given for Hurricane Allen and for severe thunderstorms on 10 April 1979. Three-dimensional output from a mesoscale model also is presented. The images may be viewed through the glasses inserted in the February 1981 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, with the red lens over the right eye. The images have been produced on the interactive Atmospheric and Oceanographic Information Processing System (AOIPS) at Goddard Space Flight Center. Stereo presentation is an important aid in understanding meteorological phenomena for operational weather forecasting, research case studies, and model simulations.

  19. Development of a model for predicting the dry matter production of mulberry [Morus alba] based on meteorological factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukui, K.; Ito, D.

    1999-01-01

    It is necessary to predict mulberry growth and yield precisely at any time during the growing period, since mulberry trees are cut anytime along with the increase of the frequency of silkworm rearing per year. Therefore, in this study, attempts were made to develop a model to predict the dry matter production in mulberry fields with standard density with the cooperation of the prefectural experimental stations of Ibaraki, Tochigi, Gunma, Saitama, Tokyo and Gifu. To construct the model, we conducted three experiments. In the first year, we estimated the dry weight of mulberry new shoots based on the length and base width. Logarithm of leaf dry weight of a new shoot was regressed linearly on the logarithm of the product of length and base width. Stem dry weight was estimated with a linear regression of the logarithm on the logarithm of the product of length and base square width. In the next year, we evaluated the maximal effective radiation (Smax) of mulberry, over which mulberry cannot use radiation to produce dry matter. This experiment included shaded and control (non-shaded) plots, and the difference between these plots was analyzed. Shading treatment decreased the dry matter production, but did not affect the radiation conversion efficiency. Shoot dry matter production increased almost proportionally with intercepted radiation except for the later growth periods. Therefore, no Smax was revealed in mulberry fields with standard density. The effect of temperature and growth stage on the radiation conversion efficiency was investigated last year. Relation of temperature and radiation conversion efficiency was not clear for shoot dry matter production. However, there was a positive relation for stem dry mater production. Although the efficiency decreased with mulberry growth for leaf dry matter production, it increased at the early growth stage and decreased at the late stage for stem dry matter production

  20. Analysis of source regions and meteorological factors for the variability of spring PM10 concentrations in Seoul, Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jangho; Kim, Kwang-Yul

    2018-02-01

    CSEOF analysis is applied for the springtime (March, April, May) daily PM10 concentrations measured at 23 Ministry of Environment stations in Seoul, Korea for the period of 2003-2012. Six meteorological variables at 12 pressure levels are also acquired from the ERA Interim reanalysis datasets. CSEOF analysis is conducted for each meteorological variable over East Asia. Regression analysis is conducted in CSEOF space between the PM10 concentrations and individual meteorological variables to identify associated atmospheric conditions for each CSEOF mode. By adding the regressed loading vectors with the mean meteorological fields, the daily atmospheric conditions are obtained for the first five CSEOF modes. Then, HYSPLIT model is run with the atmospheric conditions for each CSEOF mode in order to back trace the air parcels and dust reaching Seoul. The K-means clustering algorithm is applied to identify major source regions for each CSEOF mode of the PM10 concentrations in Seoul. Three main source regions identified based on the mean fields are: (1) northern Taklamakan Desert (NTD), (2) Gobi Desert and (GD), and (3) East China industrial area (ECI). The main source regions for the mean meteorological fields are consistent with those of previous study; 41% of the source locations are located in GD followed by ECI (37%) and NTD (21%). Back trajectory calculations based on CSEOF analysis of meteorological variables identify distinct source characteristics associated with each CSEOF mode and greatly facilitate the interpretation of the PM10 variability in Seoul in terms of transportation route and meteorological conditions including the source area.

  1. Automatic Voice Pathology Detection With Running Speech by Using Estimation of Auditory Spectrum and Cepstral Coefficients Based on the All-Pole Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Zulfiqar; Elamvazuthi, Irraivan; Alsulaiman, Mansour; Muhammad, Ghulam

    2016-11-01

    Automatic voice pathology detection using sustained vowels has been widely explored. Because of the stationary nature of the speech waveform, pathology detection with a sustained vowel is a comparatively easier task than that using a running speech. Some disorder detection systems with running speech have also been developed, although most of them are based on a voice activity detection (VAD), that is, itself a challenging task. Pathology detection with running speech needs more investigation, and systems with good accuracy (ACC) are required. Furthermore, pathology classification systems with running speech have not received any attention from the research community. In this article, automatic pathology detection and classification systems are developed using text-dependent running speech without adding a VAD module. A set of three psychophysics conditions of hearing (critical band spectral estimation, equal loudness hearing curve, and the intensity loudness power law of hearing) is used to estimate the auditory spectrum. The auditory spectrum and all-pole models of the auditory spectrums are computed and analyzed and used in a Gaussian mixture model for an automatic decision. In the experiments using the Massachusetts Eye & Ear Infirmary database, an ACC of 99.56% is obtained for pathology detection, and an ACC of 93.33% is obtained for the pathology classification system. The results of the proposed systems outperform the existing running-speech-based systems. The developed system can effectively be used in voice pathology detection and classification systems, and the proposed features can visually differentiate between normal and pathological samples. Copyright © 2015 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. On the duality between long-run relations and common trends in the I(1) versus I(2) model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    1994-01-01

    procedures reveal that nominal money stock is essentially I(2). Long-run price homogeneity is supported by the data and imposed on the system. It is found that the bond rate is weakly exogenous for the long-run parameters and therefore act as a driving trend. Using the nonstationarity property of the data......, "excess money" is estimated and its effect on the other determinants of the system is investigated. In particular, it is found that "excess money" has no effect on price inflation...

  3. Modeling Changes in Bed Surface Texture and Aquatic Habitat Caused by Run-of-River Hydropower Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, T. K.; Venditti, J. G.; Nelson, P. A.; Popescu, V.; Palen, W.

    2014-12-01

    Run-of-river (RoR) hydropower has emerged as an important alternative to large reservoir-based dams in the renewable energy portfolios of China, India, Canada, and other areas around the globe. RoR projects generate electricity by diverting a portion of the channel discharge through a large pipe for several kilometers downhill where it is used to drive turbines before being returned to the channel. Individual RoR projects are thought to be less disruptive to local ecosystems than large hydropower because they involve minimal water storage, more closely match the natural hydrograph downstream of the project, and are capable of bypassing trapped sediment. However, there is concern that temporary sediment supply disruption may degrade the productivity of salmon spawning habitat downstream of the dam by causing changes in the grain size distribution of bed surface sediment. We hypothesize that salmon populations will be most susceptible to disruptions in sediment supply in channels where; 1) sediment supply is high relative to transport capacity prior to RoR development, and 2) project design creates substantial sediment storage volume. Determining the geomorphic effect of RoR development on aquatic habitat requires many years of field data collection, and even then it can be difficult to link geomorphic change to RoR development alone. As an alternative, we used a one-dimensional morphodynamic model to test our hypothesis across a range of pre-development sediment supply conditions and sediment storage volumes. Our results confirm that coarsening of the median surface grain-size is greatest in cases where pre-development sediment supply was highest and sediment storage volumes were large enough to disrupt supply over the course of the annual hydrograph or longer. In cases where the pre-development sediment supply is low, coarsening of the median surface grain-size is less than 2 mm over a multiple-year disruption period. When sediment supply is restored, our results

  4. Using satellite data on meteorological and vegetation characteristics and soil surface humidity in the Land Surface Model for the vast territory of agricultural destination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzylev, Eugene; Startseva, Zoya; Uspensky, Alexander; Vasilenko, Eugene; Volkova, Elena; Kukharsky, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    The model of water and heat exchange between vegetation covered territory and atmosphere (LSM, Land Surface Model) for vegetation season has been developed to calculate soil water content, evapotranspiration, infiltration of water into the soil, vertical latent and sensible heat fluxes and other water and heat balances components as well as soil surface and vegetation cover temperatures and depth distributions of moisture and temperature. The LSM is suited for utilizing satellite-derived estimates of precipitation, land surface temperature and vegetation characteristics and soil surface humidity for each pixel. Vegetation and meteorological characteristics being the model parameters and input variables, correspondingly, have been estimated by ground observations and thematic processing measurement data of scanning radiometers AVHRR/NOAA, SEVIRI/Meteosat-9, -10 (MSG-2, -3) and MSU-MR/Meteor-M № 2. Values of soil surface humidity has been calculated from remote sensing data of scatterometers ASCAT/MetOp-A, -B. The case study has been carried out for the territory of part of the agricultural Central Black Earth Region of European Russia with area of 227300 km2 located in the forest-steppe zone for years 2012-2015 vegetation seasons. The main objectives of the study have been: - to built estimates of precipitation, land surface temperatures (LST) and vegetation characteristics from MSU-MR measurement data using the refined technologies (including algorithms and programs) of thematic processing satellite information matured on AVHRR and SEVIRI data. All technologies have been adapted to the area of interest; - to investigate the possibility of utilizing satellite-derived estimates of values above in the LSM including verification of obtained estimates and development of procedure of their inputting into the model. From the AVHRR data there have been built the estimates of precipitation, three types of LST: land skin temperature Tsg, air temperature at a level of

  5. Microscale anthropogenic pollution modelling in a small tropical island during weak trade winds: Lagrangian particle dispersion simulations using real nested LES meteorological fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cécé, Raphaël; Bernard, Didier; Brioude, Jérome; Zahibo, Narcisse

    2016-08-01

    Tropical islands are characterized by thermal and orographical forcings which may generate microscale air mass circulations. The Lesser Antilles Arc includes small tropical islands (width lower than 50 km) where a total of one-and-a-half million people live. Air quality over this region is affected by anthropogenic and volcanic emissions, or saharan dust. To reduce risks for the population health, the atmospheric dispersion of emitted pollutants must be predicted. In this study, the dispersion of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NOx) is numerically modelled over the densely populated area of the Guadeloupe archipelago under weak trade winds, during a typical case of severe pollution. The main goal is to analyze how microscale resolutions affect air pollution in a small tropical island. Three resolutions of domain grid are selected: 1 km, 333 m and 111 m. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used to produce real nested microscale meteorological fields. Then the weather outputs initialize the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (FLEXPART). The forward simulations of a power plant plume showed good ability to reproduce nocturnal peaks recorded by an urban air quality station. The increase in resolution resulted in an improvement of model sensitivity. The nesting to subkilometer grids helped to reduce an overestimation bias mainly because the LES domains better simulate the turbulent motions governing nocturnal flows. For peaks observed at two air quality stations, the backward sensitivity outputs identified realistic sources of NOx in the area. The increase in resolution produced a sharper inverse plume with a more accurate source area. This study showed the first application of the FLEXPART-WRF model to microscale resolutions. Overall, the coupling model WRF-LES-FLEXPART is useful to simulate the pollutant dispersion during a real case of calm wind regime over a complex terrain area. The forward and backward simulation results showed clearly that the

  6. Integrating meteorology into research on migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shamoun-Baranes, Judy; Bouten, Willem; van Loon, E Emiel

    2010-09-01

    Atmospheric dynamics strongly influence the migration of flying organisms. They affect, among others, the onset, duration and cost of migration, migratory routes, stop-over decisions, and flight speeds en-route. Animals move through a heterogeneous environment and have to react to atmospheric dynamics at different spatial and temporal scales. Integrating meteorology into research on migration is not only challenging but it is also important, especially when trying to understand the variability of the various aspects of migratory behavior observed in nature. In this article, we give an overview of some different modeling approaches and we show how these have been incorporated into migration research. We provide a more detailed description of the development and application of two dynamic, individual-based models, one for waders and one for soaring migrants, as examples of how and why to integrate meteorology into research on migration. We use these models to help understand underlying mechanisms of individual response to atmospheric conditions en-route and to explain emergent patterns. This type of models can be used to study the impact of variability in atmospheric dynamics on migration along a migratory trajectory, between seasons and between years. We conclude by providing some basic guidelines to help researchers towards finding the right modeling approach and the meteorological data needed to integrate meteorology into their own research. © The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved.

  7. Meteorological Drivers of Extreme Air Pollution Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, D. E.; Schnell, J.; Callahan, C. W.; Suo, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The accumulation of pollutants in the near-surface atmosphere has been shown to have deleterious consequences for public health, agricultural productivity, and economic vitality. Natural and anthropogenic emissions of ozone and particulate matter can accumulate to hazardous concentrations when atmospheric conditions are favorable, and can reach extreme levels when such conditions persist. Favorable atmospheric conditions for pollutant accumulation include optimal temperatures for photochemical reaction rates, circulation patterns conducive to pollutant advection, and a lack of ventilation, dispersion, and scavenging in the local environment. Given our changing climate system and the dual ingredients of poor air quality - pollutants and the atmospheric conditions favorable to their accumulation - it is important to characterize recent changes in favorable meteorological conditions, and quantify their potential contribution to recent extreme air pollution events. To facilitate our characterization, this study employs the recently updated Schnell et al (2015) 1°×1° gridded observed surface ozone and particulate matter datasets for the period of 1998 to 2015, in conjunction with reanalysis and climate model simulation data. We identify extreme air pollution episodes in the observational record and assess the meteorological factors of primary support at local and synoptic scales. We then assess (i) the contribution of observed meteorological trends (if extant) to the magnitude of the event, (ii) the return interval of the meteorological event in the observational record, simulated historical climate, and simulated pre-industrial climate, as well as (iii) the probability of the observed meteorological trend in historical and pre-industrial climates.

  8. Search for gravitational waves from Scorpius X-1 in the first Advanced LIGO observing run with a hidden Markov model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, D.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Phythian-Adams, A.T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V. B.; Affeldt, C.; Afrough, M.; Agarwal, B.; Agatsuma, K.; Aggarwal, N.T.; Aguiar, O. D.; Aiello, L.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allen, G; Allocca, A.; Almoubayyed, H.; Altin, P. A.; Amato, A.; Ananyeva, A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Antier, S.; Appert, S.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Areeda, J. S.; Arnaud, N.; Arun, K. G.; Ascenzi, S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, M.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; AultONeal, K.; Avila-Alvarez, A.; Babak, S.; Bacon, P.; Bader, M. K. M.; Bae, S.; Baker, P. T.; Baldaccini, F.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Banagiri, S.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barclay, S. E.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, R.D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barta, D.; Bartlett, J.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Bawaj, M.; Bazzan, M.; Becsy, B.; Beer, C.; Bejger, M.; Belahcene, I.; Bell, A. S.; Berger, B. K.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Etienne, Z. B.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Billman, C. R.; Birch, D J; Birney, R.; Birnholtz, O.; Biscans, S.; Bisht, A.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackman, J.; Blair, C. D.; Blari, D. G.; Blair, R. M.; Bloemen, S.; Bock, O.; Bode, N.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, J.G.; Bohe, A.; Bondu, F.; Bonnand, R.; Boom, B. A.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bouffanais, Y.; Bozzi, A.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; Brau, J. E.; Briant, T.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brockill, P.; Broida, J. E.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, A.D.; Brown, D.; Brown, N. M.; Brunett, S.; Buchanan, C. C.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cabero, M.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cahillane, C.; Bustillo, J. Calderon; Callister, T. A.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Canepa, M.; Canizares, P.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, H.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Capocasa, E.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Carney, M. F.; Diaz, J. Casanueva; Casentini, C.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglia, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C. B.; Baiardi, L. Cerboni; Cerretani, G.; Cesarini, E.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chan, M.; Chao, D. S.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Chatterjee, D.; Cheeseboro, B. D.; Chen, H. Y.; Chen, Y; Cheng, H. -P.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Chmiel, T.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chua, A. J. K.; Chua, S. S. Y.; Chung, A. K. W.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Ciolfi, R.; Cirelli, C. E.; Cirone, A.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Cleva, F.; Cocchieri, C.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P. -F.; Colla, A.; Collette, C. G.; Cominsky, L. R.; Constancio, M., Jr.; Conti, L.; Cooper, S. J.; Corban, P.; Corbitt, T. R.; Corley, K. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Cortese, S.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coughlin, S. B.; Coulon, J. -P.; Countryman, S. T.; Couvares, P.; Covas, P. B.; Cowan, E. E.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cullen, T. J.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, Laura; Cuoco, E.; Dal Canton, T.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dasgupta, A.; Costa, C. F. Da Silva; Dattilo, V.; Dave, I.; Davier, M.; Davies, G. S.; Davis, D.; Daw, E. J.; Day, B.; De, S.; Debra, D.; Deelman, E; Degallaix, J.; De laurentis, M.; Deleglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dergachev, V.A.; Rosa, R.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Devenson, J.; Devine, R. C.; Dhurandhar, S.; Diaz, M. C.; Di Fiore, L.; Giovanni, M. Di; Di Girolamo, T.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Pace, S.; Di Palma, I.; Di Renzo, F.; Doctor, Z.; Dolique, V.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Dorrington, I.; Douglas, R.; Alvarez, M. Dovale; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Ducrot, M.; Duncan, J.; Dwyer, S. E.; Edo, T. B.; Edwards, M. C.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H. -B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Essick, R. C.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T. M.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fair, H.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Fauchon-Jones, E. J.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Feicht, J.; Fejer, M. M.; Fernandez-Galiana, A.; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Fiori, I.; Fiorucci, D.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Fletcher, M; Fong, H.; Forsyth, P. W. F.; Forsyth, S. S.; Fournier, J. -D.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Frey, V.; Fries, E. M.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gabbard, H.; Gabel, M.; Gadre, B. U.; Gaebel, S. M.; Gair, J. R.; Gammaitoni, L.; Ganija, M. R.; Gaonkar, S. G.; Garufi, F.; Gaudio, S.; Gaur, G.; Gayathri, V.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; George, D.J.; George, J.; Gergely, L.; Germain, V.; Ghonge, S.; Ghosh, Abhirup; Ghosh, Archisman; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, K.P.; Glover, L.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gomes, A.S.P.; Gonzalez, Idelmis G.; Castro, J. M. Gonzalez; Gopakumar, A.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S. E.; Lee-Gosselin, M.; Gouaty, R.; Grado, A.; Graef, C.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.M.; Greco, G.; Green, A. C.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Gruning, P.; Guidi, G. M.; Guo, X.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, M. K.; Gushwa, K. E.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hall, B. R.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.; Haney, M.; Hanke, M. M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannuksela, O. A.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M. J.; Haster, C. -J.; Haughian, K.; Healy, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Hennig, J.; Henry, J.A.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hofman, D.; Holt, K.; Holz, D. E.; Hopkins, P.; Horst, C.; Hough, J.; Houston, E. A.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huerta, E. A.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Intini, G.; Isa, H. N.; Isac, J. -M.; Isi, M.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacqmin, T.; Jani, K.; Jaranowski, P.; Jawahar, S.; Jimenez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W.; Jones, I.D.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; Junker, J.; Kalaghatgi, C. V.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Karki, S.; Karvinen, K. S.; Kasprzack, M.; Katolik, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, S.; Kawabe, K.; Kefelian, F.; Keitel, D.; Kemball, A. J.; Kennedy, R.E.; Kent, C.; Key, J. S.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, I.; Khan., S.; Khan, Z.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kijbunchoo, N.; Kim, Chunglee; Kim, J. C.; Kim, W.; Kim, S.W.; Kim, Y.M.; Kimbrell, S. J.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kirchhoff, R.; Kissel, J. S.; Kleybolte, L.; Klimenko, S.; Koch, P.; Koehlenbeck, S. M.; Koley, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kontos, A.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Kramer, C.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Krolak, A.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kumar, R.; Kumar, S.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Kwang-Cheol, S.; Lackey, B. D.; Lai, K. H.; Landry, M.; Lang, R. N.; Lange, J.; Lantz, B.; Lanza, R. K.; Lartaux-Vollard, A.; Lasky, P. D.; Laxen, M.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lee, C.H.; Lee, K.H.; Lee, M.H.; Lee, W. H.; Lee, K.; Lehmann, J.; Lenon, A.; Leonardi, M.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Li, T. G. F.; Libson, A.; Littenberg, T. B.; Liu, J.; Lockerbie, N. A.; London, L. T.; Lord, J. E.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J. D.; Lovelace, G.; Luck, H.; Lumaca, D.; Lundgren, A. P.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; Macfoy, S.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magana Hernandez, I.; Magana-Sandoval, F.; Magana Zertuche, L.; Magee, R. M.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Man, N.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Manske, M.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Marka, S.; Marka, Z.; Markakis, C.; Markosyan, A. S.; Maros, E.; Martelli, F.; Martellini, L.; Martin, I. W.; Martynov, D. V.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Masso-Reid, M.; Mastrogiovanni, S.; Matas, A.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mayani, R.; Mazumder, N.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McCormick, S.; McCuller, L.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McManus, D. J.; McRae, T.; McWilliams, S. T.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Meidam, J.; Mejuto-Villa, E.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mercer, R. A.; Merilh, E. L.; Merzougui, M.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Messick, C.; Metzdorff, R.; Meyers, P. M.; Mezzani, F.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Middleton, H.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Milano, L.; Miller, A. L.; Miller, A.; Miller, B. B.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Minazzoli, O.; Minenkov, Y.; Ming, J.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moggi, A.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Montani, M.; Moore, B.C.; Moore, C. J.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, G.; Muir, A. W.; Mukherjee, Arunava; Mukherjee, S.D.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukund, N.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Muniz, E. A. M.; Murray, P.G.; Napier, K.; Nardecchia, I.; Naticchioni, L.; Nayak, R. K.; Nelemans, G.; Nelson, T. J. N.; Gutierrez-Neri, M.; Nery, M.; Neunzert, A.; Newport, J. M.; Newton, G.; Ng, K. K. Y.; Nguyen, T. T.; Nichols, D.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A.; Noack, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E. N.; Nuttall, L. K.; Oberling, J.; Ochsner, E.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oliver, M.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, Richard J.; O'Reilly, B.; Ormiston, R.; Ortega, L. F.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ottaway, D. J.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Pace, A. E.; Page, J.; Page, M. A.; Pai, A.; Pai, S. A.; Palamos, J. R.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pang, B.; Pang, P. T. H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoli, A.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H. R.; Parker, W.S; Pascucci, D.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patricelli, B.; Pearlstone, B. L.; Pedraza, M.; Pedurand, R.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Castro-Perez, J.; Perreca, A.; Perri, L. M.; Pfeiffer, H. P.; Phelps, M.; Piccinni, O. J.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pillant, G.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poggiani, R.; Popolizio, P.; Porter, E. K.; Post, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Pratt, J. W. W.; Predoi, V.; Prestegard, T.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prix, R.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L. G.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Purrer, M.; Qi, H.; Qin, J.; Qiu, S.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E. A.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajan, C.; Rakhmanov, M.; Ramirez, K. E.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Read, J.; Regimbau, T.; Rei, L.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Rew, H.; Reyes, S. D.; Ricci, F.; Ricker, P. M.; Rieger, S.; Riles, K.; Rizzo, M.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V. J.; Romano, R.; Romel, C. L.; Romie, J. H.; Rosinska, D.; Ross, M. P.; Rowan, S.; Rudiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Rynge, M.; Sachdev, Perminder S; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Sakellariadou, M.; Salconi, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Samajdar, A.; Sammut, L.; Sampson, L. M.; Sanchez, E. J.; Sandberg, V.; Sandeen, B.; Sanders, J. R.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Sauter, O.; Savage, R. L.; Sawadsky, A.; Schale, P.; Scheuer, J.; Schmidt, E.; Schmidt, J; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.B.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schonbeck, A.; Schreiber, K.E.C.; Schuette, D.; Schulte, B. W.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwalbe, S. G.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Seidel, E.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Sergeev, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shaffer, T. J.; Shah, A.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shao, L.P.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Sheperd, A.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sieniawska, M.; Sigg, D.; Silva, António Dias da; Singer, A; Singer, L. P.; Singh, A.; Singh, R.; Singhal, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, B.; Smith, R. J. E.; Smith, R. J. E.; Son, E. J.; Sonnenberg, J. A.; Sorazu, B.; Sorrentino, F.; Souradeep, T.; Spencer, A. P.; Srivastava, A. K.; Staley, A.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Stratta, G.; Strigin, S. E.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, L.; Sunil, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B. L.; Szczepanczyk, M. J.; Tacca, M.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tapai, M.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, J. A.; Taylor, W.R.; Theeg, T.; Thomas, E. G.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Tiwari, S.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Toland, K.; Tonelli, M.; Tornasi, Z.; Torrie, C. I.; Toyra, D.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trifiro, D.; Trinastic, J.; Tringali, M. C.; Trozzo, L.; Tsang, K. W.; Tse, M.; Tso, R.; Tuyenbayev, D.; Ueno, K.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahi, K.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; van Bakel, N.; Van Beuzekom, Martin; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.F.F.; Vander-Hyde, D. C.; van der Schaaf, L.; van Heijningen, J. V.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vardaro, M.; Varma, V.; Vass, S.; Vasuth, M.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P.J.; Venkateswara, K.; Venugopalan, G.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Vicere, A.; Viets, A. D.; Vinciguerra, S.; Vine, D. J.; Vinet, J. -Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Voss, D. V.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L. E.; Wade, MT; Walet, R.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, G.; Wang, H.; Wang, J. Z.; Wang, M.; Wang, Y. -F.; Wang, Y. -F.; Ward, L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Watchi, J.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L. -W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.; Wessel, E. K.; Wessels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whiting, B. F.; Whittle, C.; Williams, D.; Williams, D.R.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M. H.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Woehler, J.; Wofford, J.; Wong, G.W.K.; Worden, J.; Wright, J.L.; Wu, D.S.; Wu, G.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yap, M. J.; Yu, Hang; Yu, Haocun; Yvert, M.; Zadrozny, A.; Zanolin, M.; Zelenova, T.; Zendri, J. -P.; Zevin, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, T.; Zhang, Y. -H.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, X. J.; Zucker, M. E.; Zweizig, J.; Suvorova, S.; Moran, W.; Evans, J.R.

    2017-01-01

    Results are presented from a semicoherent search for continuous gravitational waves from the brightest low-mass X-ray binary, Scorpius X-1, using data collected during the first Advanced LIGO observing run. The search combines a frequency domain matched filter (Bessel-weighted F-statistic) with a

  9. Modeling water and heat balance components of large territory for vegetation season using information from polar-orbital and geostationary meteorological satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzylev, Eugene; Startseva, Zoya; Uspensky, Alexander; Volkova, Elena; Kukharsky, Alexander; Uspensky, Sergey

    2015-04-01

    To date, physical-mathematical modeling processes of land surface-atmosphere interaction is considered to be the most appropriate tool for obtaining reliable estimates of water and heat balance components of large territories. The model of these processes (Land Surface Model, LSM) developed for vegetation period is destined for simulating soil water content W, evapotranspiration Ev, vertical latent LE and heat fluxes from land surface as well as vertically distributed soil temperature and moisture, soil surface Tg and foliage Tf temperatures, and land surface skin temperature (LST) Ts. The model is suitable for utilizing remote sensing data on land surface and meteorological conditions. In the study these data have been obtained from measurements by scanning radiometers AVHRR/NOAA, MODIS/EOS Terra and Aqua, SEVIRI/geostationary satellites Meteosat-9, -10 (MSG-2, -3). The heterogeneity of the land surface and meteorological conditions has been taken into account in the model by using soil and vegetation characteristics as parameters and meteorological characteristics as input variables. Values of these characteristics have been determined from ground observations and remote sensing information. So, AVHRR data have been used to build the estimates of effective land surface temperature (LST) Ts.eff and emissivity E, vegetation-air temperature (temperature at the vegetation level) Ta, normalized vegetation index NDVI, vegetation cover fraction B, the leaf area index LAI, and precipitation. From MODIS data the values of LST Tls, Å, NDVI, LAI have been derived. From SEVIRI data there have been retrieved Tls, E, Ta, NDVI, LAI and precipitation. All named retrievals covered the vast territory of the part of the agricultural Central Black Earth Region located in the steppe-forest zone of European Russia. This territory with coordinates 49°30'-54°N, 31°-43°E and a total area of 227,300 km2 has been chosen for investigation. It has been carried out for years 2009

  10. Surface Meteorological Observation System (SMOS) Handbook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritsche, MT

    2008-03-01

    The Surface Meteorological Observation System (SMOS) mostly uses conventional in situ sensors to obtain 1-minute, 30-minute, and 1440-minute (daily) averages of surface wind speed, wind direction, air temperature, relative humidity (RH), barometric pressure, and precipitation at the Central Facility and many of the extended facilities of the Southern Great Plains (SGP) climate research site. The SMOSs are not calibrated as systems. The sensors and the data logger (which includes the analog-to-digital converter, or A/D) are calibrated separately. All systems are installed using components that have a current calibration. SMOSs have not been installed at extended facilities located within about 10 km of existing surface meteorological stations, such as those of the Oklahoma Mesonet. The Surface Meteorological Observation Systems are used to create climatology for each particular location, and to verify the output of numerical weather forecast and other model output. They are also used to “ground-truth” other remote sensing equipment.

  11. Sex differences in the effect of wheel running on subsequent nicotine-seeking in a rat adolescent-onset self-administration model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Victoria; Moore, Catherine F; Brunzell, Darlene H; Lynch, Wendy J

    2014-04-01

    Wheel running attenuates nicotine-seeking in male adolescent rats; however, it is not known if this effect extends to females. To determine if wheel running during abstinence would differentially attenuate subsequent nicotine-seeking in male and female rats that had extended access to nicotine self-administration during adolescence. Male (n = 49) and female (n = 43) adolescent rats self-administered saline or nicotine (5 μg/kg) under an extended access (23-h) paradigm. Following the last self-administration session, rats were moved to polycarbonate cages for an abstinence period where they either had access to a locked or unlocked running wheel for 2 h/day. Subsequently, nicotine-seeking was examined under a within-session extinction/cue-induced reinstatement paradigm. Due to low levels of nicotine-seeking in females in both wheel groups, additional groups were included that were housed without access to a running wheel during abstinence. Females self-administered more nicotine as compared to males; however, within males and females, intake did not differ between groups prior to wheel assignment. Compared to saline controls, males and females that self-administered nicotine showed a significant increase in drug-seeking during extinction. Wheel running during abstinence attenuated nicotine-seeking during extinction in males. In females, access to either locked or unlocked wheels attenuated nicotine-seeking during extinction. While responding was reinstated by cues in both males and females, levels were modest and not significantly affected by exercise in this adolescent-onset model. While wheel running reduced subsequent nicotine-seeking in males, access to a wheel, either locked or unlocked, was sufficient to suppress nicotine-seeking in females.

  12. Changes in running economy following downhill running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Trevor C; Nosaka, Kazunori; Tu, Jui-Hung

    2007-01-01

    In this study, we examined the time course of changes in running economy following a 30-min downhill (-15%) run at 70% peak aerobic power (VO2peak). Ten young men performed level running at 65, 75, and 85% VO2peak (5 min for each intensity) before, immediately after, and 1 - 5 days after the downhill run, at which times oxygen consumption (VO2), minute ventilation, the respiratory exchange ratio (RER), heart rate, ratings of perceived exertion (RPE), and blood lactate concentration were measured. Stride length, stride frequency, and range of motion of the ankle, knee, and hip joints during the level runs were analysed using high-speed (120-Hz) video images. Downhill running induced reductions (7 - 21%, P rate, minute ventilation, RER, RPE, blood lactate concentration, and stride frequency, as well as reductions in stride length and range of motion of the ankle and knee. The results suggest that changes in running form and compromised muscle function due to muscle damage contribute to the reduction in running economy for 3 days after downhill running.

  13. Annual report of the Dynamic Meteorology Laboratory, 1985

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-01-01

    Research on climate simulation; data assimilation and forecasting; nonlinear dynamics and atmospheric turbulence; wave dynamics in the middle atmosphere; African and tropical meteorology and climatology; spectroscopy and modeling of atmospheric radiation; satellite meteorology and climatology; and active lidar remote sensing is presented [fr

  14. Annual report of the Dynamic Meteorology Laboratory, 1986

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    Research on climate simulation; data assimilation and forecasting; nonlinear dynamics and atmospheric turbulence; wave dynamics in the middle atmosphere; African and tropical meteorology and climatology; spectroscopy and modeling of atmospheric radiation; satellite meteorology and climatology; and active lidar remote sensing is presented [fr

  15. Running Parallel Discrete Event Simulators on Sierra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnes, P. D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Jefferson, D. R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2015-12-03

    In this proposal we consider porting the ROSS/Charm++ simulator and the discrete event models that run under its control so that they run on the Sierra architecture and make efficient use of the Volta GPUs.

  16. The impact of urbanization during half a century on surface meteorology based on WRF model simulations over National Capital Region, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sati, Ankur Prabhat; Mohan, Manju

    2017-10-01

    An estimated 50% of the global population lives in the urban areas, and this percentage is projected to reach around 69% by the year 2050 (World Urbanization Prospects 2009). There is a considerable growth of urban and built-up area during the recent decades over National Capital Region (NCR) of India (17-fold increase in the urban extent). The proposed study estimates the land use land cover changes particularly changes to urban class from other land use types such as croplands, shrubland, open areas, and water bodies and quantify these changes for a span of about five decades. Further, the impact of these land use/land cover changes is examined on spatial and temporal variations of meteorological parameters using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model. The urbanized areas appear to be one of the regions with highest changes in the values of the fluxes and temperatures where during daytime, the surface sensible heat flux values show a noticeable increase of 60-70 W m-2 which commensurate with increase in urbanization. Similarly, the nighttime LST and T2m show an increase of 3-5 and 2-3 K, respectively. The diurnal temperature range (DTR) of LST and surface temperature also shows a decrease of about 5 and 2-3 K, respectively, with increasing urbanization. Significant decrease in the magnitude of surface winds and relative humidity is also observed over the areas converted to urban form over a period of half a century. The impacts shown here have serious implications on human health, energy consumption, ventilation, and atmospheric pollution.

  17. Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory conducts research to understand the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics and processes of the...

  18. Effect of long-term voluntary exercise wheel running on susceptibility to bacterial pulmonary infections in a mouse model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van de Weert-van Leeuwen, Pauline B; de Vrankrijker, Angélica M M; Fentz, Joachim

    2013-01-01

    moderate exercise has many health benefits, healthy mice showed increased bacterial (P. aeruginosa) load and symptoms, after regular voluntary exercise, with perseverance of the phagocytic capacity of monocytes and neutrophils. Whether patients, suffering from bacterial infectious diseases, should......Regular moderate exercise has been suggested to exert anti-inflammatory effects and improve immune effector functions, resulting in reduced disease incidence and viral infection susceptibility. Whether regular exercise also affects bacterial infection susceptibility is unknown. The aim...... of this study was to investigate whether regular voluntary exercise wheel running prior to a pulmonary infection with bacteria (P. aeruginosa) affects lung bacteriology, sickness severity and phagocyte immune function in mice. Balb/c mice were randomly placed in a cage with or without a running wheel. After 28...

  19. Meteorological Effects of Land Cover Changes in Hungary during the 20th Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drüszler, Á.; Vig, P.; Csirmaz, K.

    2012-04-01

    Geological, paleontological and geomorphologic studies show that the Earth's climate has always been changing since it came into existence. The climate change itself is self-evident. Therefore the far more serious question is how much does mankind strengthen or weaken these changes beyond the natural fluctuation and changes of climate. The aim of the present study was to restore the historical land cover changes and to simulate the meteorological consequences of these changes. Two different land cover maps for Hungary were created in vector data format using GIS technology. The land cover map for 1900 was reconstructed based on statistical data and two different historical maps: the derived map of the 3rd Military Mapping Survey of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Synoptic Forestry Map of the Kingdom of Hungary. The land cover map for 2000 was derived from the CORINE land cover database. Significant land cover changes were found in Hungary during the 20th century according to the examinations of these maps and statistical databases. The MM5 non-hydrostatic dynamic model was used to further evaluate the meteorological effects of these changes. The lower boundary conditions for this mesoscale model were generated for two selected time periods (for 1900 and 2000) based on the reconstructed maps. The dynamic model has been run with the same detailed meteorological conditions of selected days from 2006 and 2007, but with modified lower boundary conditions. The set of the 26 selected initial conditions represents the whole set of the macrosynoptic situations for Hungary. In this way, 2×26 "forecasts" were made with 48 hours of integration. The effects of land cover changes under different weather situations were further weighted by the long-term (1961-1990) mean frequency of the corresponding macrosynoptic types, to assume the climatic effects from these stratified averages. The detailed evaluation of the model results were made for three different meteorological

  20. Quality Assurance Guidance for the Collection of Meteorological Data Using Passive Radiometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document augments the February 2000 guidance entitled Meteorological Monitoring Guidance for Regulatory Modeling Applications and the March 2008 guidance entitled Quality Assurance Handbook for Air Pollution Measurement Systems Volume IV: Meteorological Measurements Version ...

  1. Droning on about the Weather: Meteorological Science on a School-Friendly Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Phil; O'Neill, Ashley; Brown, Abby

    2016-01-01

    Meteorology is an important branch of science that offers exciting career opportunities and yet is not usually included in school curricula. The availability of multi-rotor model aircraft (drones) offers an exciting opportunity to bring meteorology into school science.

  2. Flight altitude of trans-Sahara migrants in autumn: a comparison of radar observations with predictions from meteorological conditions and water and energy balance models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, M.R.J.; Biebach, H.

    2000-01-01

    Radar observations on the altitude of bird migration and altitudinal profiles of meteorological conditions over the Sahara desert are presented for the autumn migratory period. Migratory birds By at an average altitude of 1016 m (a.s.l.) during the day and 571 m during the night. Weather data served

  3. Forecasting of meteorological drought using Wavelet-ANFIS hybrid model for different time steps (case study: Southeastern part of east Azerbaijan province, Iran)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shirmohammadi Chelan, Bagher; Moradi, Hamidreza; Moosavi, Vahid; Semiromi, Majid Taie; Zeinali, Ali

    2013-01-01

    Drought is accounted as one of the most natural hazards. Studying on drought is important for designing and managing of water resources systems. This research is carried out to evaluate the ability of Wavelet-ANN and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) techniques for meteorological drought

  4. An 18-yr long (1993–2011 snow and meteorological dataset from a mid-altitude mountain site (Col de Porte, France, 1325 m alt. for driving and evaluating snowpack models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Morin

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available A quality-controlled snow and meteorological dataset spanning the period 1 August 1993–31 July 2011 is presented, originating from the experimental station Col de Porte (1325 m altitude, Chartreuse range, France. Emphasis is placed on meteorological data relevant to the observation and modelling of the seasonal snowpack. In-situ driving data, at the hourly resolution, consist of measurements of air temperature, relative humidity, windspeed, incoming short-wave and long-wave radiation, precipitation rate partitioned between snow- and rainfall, with a focus on the snow-dominated season. Meteorological data for the three summer months (generally from 10 June to 20 September, when the continuity of the field record is not warranted, are taken from a local meteorological reanalysis (SAFRAN, in order to provide a continuous and consistent gap-free record. Data relevant to snowpack properties are provided at the daily (snow depth, snow water equivalent, runoff and albedo and hourly (snow depth, albedo, runoff, surface temperature, soil temperature time resolution. Internal snowpack information is provided from weekly manual snowpit observations (mostly consisting in penetration resistance, snow type, snow temperature and density profiles and from a hourly record of temperature and height of vertically free ''settling'' disks. This dataset has been partially used in the past to assist in developing snowpack models and is presented here comprehensively for the purpose of multi-year model performance assessment. The data is placed on the PANGAEA repository (http://dx.doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.774249 as well as on the public ftp server ftp://ftp-cnrm.meteo.fr/pub-cencdp/.

  5. Development of regional meteorological and atmospheric diffusion simulation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kubota, Ryuji; Iwashige, Kengo; Kasano, Toshio

    2002-01-01

    Regional atmospheric diffusion online network (RADON) with atmospheric diffusion analysis code (ADAC) : a simulation program of diffusion of radioactive materials, volcanic ash, pollen, NOx and SOx was developed. This system can be executed in personal computer (PC) and note PC on Windows. Emission data consists of online, offline and default data. It uses the meteorology data sources such as meteorological forecasting mesh data, automated meteorological data acquisition system (AMeDAS) data, meteorological observation data in site and municipality observation data. The meteorological forecasting mesh data shows forecasting value of temperature, wind speed, wind direction and humidity in about two days. The nuclear environmental monitoring center retains the online data (meteorological data, emission source data, monitoring station data) in its PC server and can run forecasting or repeating calculation using these data and store and print out the calculation results. About 30 emission materials can be calculated simultaneously. This system can simulate a series of weather from the past and real time to the future. (S.Y.)

  6. FLUKA predictions of the absorbed dose in the HCAL Endcap scintillators using a Run1 (2012) CMS FLUKA model

    CERN Document Server

    CMS Collaboration

    2016-01-01

    Estimates of absorbed dose in HCAL Endcap (HE) region as predicted by FLUKA Monte Carlo code. Dose is calculated in an R-phi-Z grid overlaying HE region, with resolution 1cm in R, 1mm in Z, and a single 360 degree bin in phi. This allows calculation of absorbed dose within a single 4mm thick scintillator layer without including other regions or materials. This note shows estimates of the cumulative dose in scintillator layers 1 and 7 during the 2012 run.

  7. Using climate derivatives for assessment of meteorological parameter relationships in RCM and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timuhins, Andrejs; Bethers, Uldis; Bethers, Peteris; Klints, Ilze; Sennikovs, Juris; Frishfelds, Vilnis

    2017-04-01

    In a changing climate it is essential to estimate its impacts on different economic fields. In our study we tried to create a framework for climate change assessment and climate change impact estimation for the territory of Latvia and to create results which are also understandable for non-scientists (stakeholder, media and public). This approach allowed us to more carefully assess the presentation and interpretation of results and their validation, for public viewing. For the presentation of our work a website was created (www.modlab.lv/klimats) containing two types of documents in a unified framework, meteorological parameter analysis of different easily interpretable derivative values. Both of these include analysis of the current situation as well as illustrate the projection for future time periods. Derivate values are calculated using two data sources: the bias corrected regional climate data and meteorological observation data. Derivative documents contain description of derived value, some interesting facts and conclusions. Additionally, all results may be viewed in temporal and spatial graphs and maps, for different time periods as well as different seasons. Bias correction (Sennikovs and Bethers, 2009) for the control period 1961-1990 is applied to RCM data series. Meteorological observation data of the Latvian Environment, Geology, and Meteorology Agency and ENSEMBLES project daily data of 13 RCM runs for the period 1960-2100 are used. All the documents are prepared in python notebooks, which allow for flexible changes. At the moment following derivative values have been published: forest fire risk index, wind energy, phenology (Degree days), road condition (friction, ice conditions), daily minimal meteorological visibility, headache occurrence rate, firs snow date and meteorological parameter analysis: temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, and cloudiness. While creating these products RCM ability to represent the actual climate was

  8. A photosynthesis-based two-leaf canopy stomatal conductance model for meteorology and air quality modeling with WRF/CMAQ PX LSM

    Science.gov (United States)

    A coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model with single-layer sunlit and shaded leaf canopy scaling is implemented and evaluated in a diagnostic box model with the Pleim-Xiu land surface model (PX LSM) and ozone deposition model components taken directly from the meteorol...

  9. Effect of long-term voluntary exercise wheel running on susceptibility to bacterial pulmonary infections in a mouse model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauline B van de Weert-van Leeuwen

    Full Text Available Regular moderate exercise has been suggested to exert anti-inflammatory effects and improve immune effector functions, resulting in reduced disease incidence and viral infection susceptibility. Whether regular exercise also affects bacterial infection susceptibility is unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate whether regular voluntary exercise wheel running prior to a pulmonary infection with bacteria (P. aeruginosa affects lung bacteriology, sickness severity and phagocyte immune function in mice. Balb/c mice were randomly placed in a cage with or without a running wheel. After 28 days, mice were intranasally infected with P. aeruginosa. Our study showed that regular exercise resulted in a higher sickness severity score and bacterial (P. aeruginosa loads in the lungs. The phagocytic capacity of monocytes and neutrophils from spleen and lungs was not affected. Although regular moderate exercise has many health benefits, healthy mice showed increased bacterial (P. aeruginosa load and symptoms, after regular voluntary exercise, with perseverance of the phagocytic capacity of monocytes and neutrophils. Whether patients, suffering from bacterial infectious diseases, should be encouraged to engage in exercise and physical activities with caution requires further research.

  10. Impacts of Detailed Land-Use Types and Urban Heat in an Urban Canopy Model on Local Meteorology and Ozone Levels for Air Quality Modeling in a Coastal City, Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon-Hee Kang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available An urban canopy model (UCM, with detailed urban land-use and anthropogenic heat information, is required to reproduce and understand the urbanization process and its impact on regional climate and urban air quality. This study investigates the UCM impact on simulated meteorology and surface ozone in the coastal city of Busan using the WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ model coupled with (UCM case, and without the UCM (NOUCM case. The UCM and NOUCM case results suggest that UCM case generally produces warmer temperatures and deeper planetary boundary layer (PBL heights, especially in the early morning and night time, than the NOUCM case. Owing to urban heating and enhanced turbulent mixing incorporation in the center of the city, the sea breeze in the UCM case tends to penetrate faster and more strongly than in the NOUCM case. After sea breeze arrival at the urban center, the urban heat island effect prevents its penetration further inland. In the UCM case in the late afternoon, local meteorological changes induce remarkable increases in simulated O3 concentrations over the downwind (up to 17.1 ppb and downtown (up to 10.6 ppb areas. This is probably due to an increase in temperature in the urban areas and the wind convergence zone movement due to the sea breeze interaction and offshore flows. The increase in O3 concentration in the late afternoon results in the model bias reduction under previously underestimated O3 conditions due to high NOx emissions. The simulated O3 concentrations in the UCM case are more similar to the observed O3 concentrations compared to those of the NOUCM case.

  11. High-resolution modeling of tsunami run-up flooding: a case study of flooding in Kamaishi city, Japan, induced by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Akoh

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Run-up processes of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami into the city of Kamaishi, Japan, were simulated numerically using 2-D shallow water equations with a new treatment of building footprints. The model imposes an internal hydraulic condition of permeable and impermeable walls at the building footprint outline on unstructured triangular meshes. Digital data of the building footprint approximated by polygons were overlaid on a 1.0 m resolution terrain model. The hydraulic boundary conditions were ascertained using conventional tsunami propagation calculation from the seismic center to nearshore areas. Run-up flow calculations were conducted under the same hydraulic conditions for several cases having different building permeabilities. Comparison of computation results with field data suggests that the case with a small amount of wall permeability gives better agreement than the case with impermeable condition. Spatial mapping of an indicator for run-up flow intensity (IF = (hU2max, where h and U respectively denote the inundation depth and flow velocity during the flood, shows fairly good correlation with the distribution of houses destroyed by flooding. As a possible mitigation measure, the influence of the buildings on the flow was assessed using a numerical experiment for solid buildings arrayed alternately in two lines along the coast. Results show that the buildings can prevent seawater from flowing straight to the city center while maintaining access to the sea.

  12. High-resolution modeling of tsunami run-up flooding: a case study of flooding in Kamaishi city, Japan, induced by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akoh, Ryosuke; Ishikawa, Tadaharu; Kojima, Takashi; Tomaru, Mahito; Maeno, Shiro

    2017-11-01

    Run-up processes of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami into the city of Kamaishi, Japan, were simulated numerically using 2-D shallow water equations with a new treatment of building footprints. The model imposes an internal hydraulic condition of permeable and impermeable walls at the building footprint outline on unstructured triangular meshes. Digital data of the building footprint approximated by polygons were overlaid on a 1.0 m resolution terrain model. The hydraulic boundary conditions were ascertained using conventional tsunami propagation calculation from the seismic center to nearshore areas. Run-up flow calculations were conducted under the same hydraulic conditions for several cases having different building permeabilities. Comparison of computation results with field data suggests that the case with a small amount of wall permeability gives better agreement than the case with impermeable condition. Spatial mapping of an indicator for run-up flow intensity (IF = (hU2)max, where h and U respectively denote the inundation depth and flow velocity during the flood, shows fairly good correlation with the distribution of houses destroyed by flooding. As a possible mitigation measure, the influence of the buildings on the flow was assessed using a numerical experiment for solid buildings arrayed alternately in two lines along the coast. Results show that the buildings can prevent seawater from flowing straight to the city center while maintaining access to the sea.

  13. A forced running wheel system with a microcontroller that provides high-intensity exercise training in an animal ischemic stroke model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, C.C. [Department of Electrical Engineering, National Cheng-Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan (China); Chang, M.W. [Department of Electrical Engineering, Southern Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Tainan, Taiwan (China); Chang, C.P. [Department of Biotechnology, Southern Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Tainan, Taiwan (China); Chan, S.C.; Chang, W.Y.; Yang, C.L. [Department of Electrical Engineering, National Cheng-Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan (China); Lin, M.T. [Department of Medical Research, Chi Mei Medical Center, Tainan, Taiwan (China)

    2014-08-15

    We developed a forced non-electric-shock running wheel (FNESRW) system that provides rats with high-intensity exercise training using automatic exercise training patterns that are controlled by a microcontroller. The proposed system successfully makes a breakthrough in the traditional motorized running wheel to allow rats to perform high-intensity training and to enable comparisons with the treadmill at the same exercise intensity without any electric shock. A polyvinyl chloride runway with a rough rubber surface was coated on the periphery of the wheel so as to permit automatic acceleration training, and which allowed the rats to run consistently at high speeds (30 m/min for 1 h). An animal ischemic stroke model was used to validate the proposed system. FNESRW, treadmill, control, and sham groups were studied. The FNESRW and treadmill groups underwent 3 weeks of endurance running training. After 3 weeks, the experiments of middle cerebral artery occlusion, the modified neurological severity score (mNSS), an inclined plane test, and triphenyltetrazolium chloride were performed to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed platform. The proposed platform showed that enhancement of motor function, mNSS, and infarct volumes was significantly stronger in the FNESRW group than the control group (P<0.05) and similar to the treadmill group. The experimental data demonstrated that the proposed platform can be applied to test the benefit of exercise-preconditioning-induced neuroprotection using the animal stroke model. Additional advantages of the FNESRW system include stand-alone capability, independence of subjective human adjustment, and ease of use.

  14. A forced running wheel system with a microcontroller that provides high-intensity exercise training in an animal ischemic stroke model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.C. Chen

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available We developed a forced non-electric-shock running wheel (FNESRW system that provides rats with high-intensity exercise training using automatic exercise training patterns that are controlled by a microcontroller. The proposed system successfully makes a breakthrough in the traditional motorized running wheel to allow rats to perform high-intensity training and to enable comparisons with the treadmill at the same exercise intensity without any electric shock. A polyvinyl chloride runway with a rough rubber surface was coated on the periphery of the wheel so as to permit automatic acceleration training, and which allowed the rats to run consistently at high speeds (30 m/min for 1 h. An animal ischemic stroke model was used to validate the proposed system. FNESRW, treadmill, control, and sham groups were studied. The FNESRW and treadmill groups underwent 3 weeks of endurance running training. After 3 weeks, the experiments of middle cerebral artery occlusion, the modified neurological severity score (mNSS, an inclined plane test, and triphenyltetrazolium chloride were performed to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed platform. The proposed platform showed that enhancement of motor function, mNSS, and infarct volumes was significantly stronger in the FNESRW group than the control group (P<0.05 and similar to the treadmill group. The experimental data demonstrated that the proposed platform can be applied to test the benefit of exercise-preconditioning-induced neuroprotection using the animal stroke model. Additional advantages of the FNESRW system include stand-alone capability, independence of subjective human adjustment, and ease of use.

  15. Instruments for meteorological measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-08-01

    The Fundamental Safety Rules applicable to certain types of nuclear installation are intended to clarify the conditions of which observance, for the type of installation concerned and for the subject that they deal with, is considered as equivalent to compliance with regulatory French technical practice. These Rules should facilitate safety analysises and the clear understanding between persons interested in matters related to nuclear safety. They in no way reduce the operator's liability and pose no obstacle to statutory provisions in force. For any installation to which a Fundamental Safety Rule applies according to the foregoing paragraph, the operator may be relieved from application of the Rule if he shows proof that the safety objectives set by the Rule are attained by other means that he proposes within the framework of statutory procedures. Furthermore, the Central Service for the Safety of Nuclear Installations reserves the right at all times to alter any Fundamental Safety Rule, as required, should it deem this necessary, while specifying the applicability conditions. This present rule has for objective to determine the means for meteorological measurement near a site of nuclear facility in which there is not a PWR power plant [fr

  16. Investigating the interrelations between throughfall, meteorological variables and vegetation structure in a developing hydrological catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer, Thomas; Pohle, Ina; Oeser, Anne; Sieber, André; Hinz, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    In landscapes with heterogeneous vegetation structure, interception and throughfall patterns produce spatio-temporal variability of soil moisture. This variability is important for eco-hydrological processes, in particular on small spatial scales up to the catchment scale. Throughfall depends on vegetation structure, whereas vegetation development is presumably co-determined by the spatio-temporal distribution of throughfall itself. In addition to vegetation structure, meteorological factors like wind speed and rainfall intensity also have an impact on throughfall. The objective of this study is to quantify the influence of vegetation structure and meteorological variables on spatial (and in the long run the temporal) variability of throughfall. For that purpose, we developed an approach combining field methods, image analysis and multivariate statistics. The 6-ha constructed catchment ‚Hühnerwasser' (aka Chicken Creek, southern Brandenburg, Germany) offers ideal conditions for the investigation of eco-hydrological feedback processes. After more than 10 years of development, vegetation structure on the catchment is spatially heterogeneous and evolves through natural succession. Furthermore, complementary meteorological data are available on-site. Throughfall was measured using 50 tipping-bucket rain gauges, which are aligned along two transects in 0.5 and 1 m heights, covering the dominating vegetation types on the catchment (e.g., robinia, sallow thorn, reed, reedgrass, herbs). The spatial distribution of vegetation structures around each measurement site was recorded with hemispheric photographs, which were subsequently analyzed using image processing techniques. Two weather stations provide reference values for precipitation and relevant meteorological variables for wind speed and direction, air humidity, temperature and irradiation. The amount and distribution of precipitation measured in scarcely vegetated areas of the catchment widely correspond with

  17. Effects of Obstacles on the Dynamics of Kinesins, Including Velocity and Run Length, Predicted by a Model of Two Dimensional Motion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woochul Nam

    Full Text Available Kinesins are molecular motors which walk along microtubules by moving their heads to different binding sites. The motion of kinesin is realized by a conformational change in the structure of the kinesin molecule and by a diffusion of one of its two heads. In this study, a novel model is developed to account for the 2D diffusion of kinesin heads to several neighboring binding sites (near the surface of microtubules. To determine the direction of the next step of a kinesin molecule, this model considers the extension in the neck linkers of kinesin and the dynamic behavior of the coiled-coil structure of the kinesin neck. Also, the mechanical interference between kinesins and obstacles anchored on the microtubules is characterized. The model predicts that both the kinesin velocity and run length (i.e., the walking distance before detaching from the microtubule are reduced by static obstacles. The run length is decreased more significantly by static obstacles than the velocity. Moreover, our model is able to predict the motion of kinesin when other (several motors also move along the same microtubule. Furthermore, it suggests that the effect of mechanical interaction/interference between motors is much weaker than the effect of static obstacles. Our newly developed model can be used to address unanswered questions regarding degraded transport caused by the presence of excessive tau proteins on microtubules.

  18. Worst case meteorological scenario for Norway in case of hypothetical accident related to recovery of the Russian submarine K-27

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bartnicki, J.; Klein, H. [Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo (Norway); Centre for Environmental Radioactivity, Aas (Norway); Amundsen, I.; Hosseini, A. [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, Oesteraas (Norway); Centre for Environmental Radioactivity, Aas (Norway); Haakenstad, H. [Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo (Norway); Lind, O.C.; Salbu, B. [Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Aas (Norway); Centre for Environmental Radioactivity, Aas (Norway)

    2014-07-01

    This study is a part of a comprehensive Norwegian project led by Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority assessing risks related to a potential salvaging and decommissioning of the Russian nuclear submarine, K-27. In September 1981, the K-27 submarine was scuttled at shallow waters in the outer part of Stepovogo Bay, situated at the north-eastern coast of Novaya Zemlya. One of the scenarios that are included in the assessment is the lifting of the submarine to the surface and the subsequent transport to the Murmansk area for decommissioning. Thus, the risk of a criticality accident as a consequence of lifting and transport event cannot be ignored. A hypothetical accident might pose a serious threat to Norwegian territories and has to be considered from different perspectives. Here, we focus on the worst case meteorological scenario for Norway, but the same approach can be applied for other Scandinavian countries and Russia. As a first step, a large database with meteorological data has been prepared for the period of thirty years (1980-2010). These meteorological data are available in the 1000 km x 1000 km domain which includes both the entire Norwegian territory and the region of Novaya Zemlya. The spatial resolution of the meteorological data is 11 km and temporal 3 hours. The vertical structure includes 40 layers. The most important meteorological elements are the 3-D velocity field, the surface precipitation field and the 3-D temperature field. The second step is the development of the source terms for potential accidents which can be used by the dispersion model SNAP (Severe Nuclear Accident Program). Three locations for potential accidents with subsequent releases of radioactivity to the environment are assumed: 1) at the present location of K-27, 2) transport on the route to Murmansk and 3) in the Murmansk region. In the third step, the SNAP model will be run with meteorological data starting every 6. hour of each day during the 30 years period. As a result

  19. The meteorological data acquisition system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouharrour, S.; Thomas, P.

    1975-07-01

    The 200 m meteorological tower of the Karlsruhe Nuclear Research Center has been equipped with 45 instruments measuring the meteorological parameters near the ground level. Frequent inquiry of the instruments implies data acquisition with on-line data reduction. This task is fulfilled by some peripheral units controlled by a PDP-8/I. This report presents details of the hardware configuration and a short description of the software configuration of the meteorological data acquisition system. The report also serves as an instruction for maintenance and repair work to be carried out at the system. (orig.) [de

  20. Modeled and measured glacier change and related glaciological, hydrological, and meteorological conditions at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, balance and water years 2006 and 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bidlake, William R.; Josberger, Edward G.; Savoca, Mark E.

    2010-01-01

    Winter snow accumulation and summer snow and ice ablation were measured at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, to estimate glacier mass balance quantities for balance years 2006 and 2007. Mass balances were computed with assistance from a new model that was based on the works of other glacier researchers. The model, which was developed for mass balance practitioners, coupled selected meteorological and glaciological data to systematically estimate daily mass balance at selected glacier sites. The North Cascade Range in the vicinity of South Cascade Glacier accumulated approximately average to above average winter snow packs during 2006 and 2007. Correspondingly, the balance years 2006 and 2007 maximum winter snow mass balances of South Cascade Glacier, 2.61 and 3.41 meters water equivalent, respectively, were approximately equal to or more positive (larger) than the average of such balances since 1959. The 2006 glacier summer balance, -4.20 meters water equivalent, was among the four most negative since 1959. The 2007 glacier summer balance, -3.63 meters water equivalent, was among the 14 most negative since 1959. The glacier continued to lose mass during 2006 and 2007, as it commonly has since 1953, but the loss was much smaller during 2007 than during 2006. The 2006 glacier net balance, -1.59 meters water equivalent, was 1.02 meters water equivalent more negative (smaller) than the average during 1953-2005. The 2007 glacier net balance, -0.22 meters water equivalent, was 0.37 meters water equivalent less negative (larger) than the average during 1953-2006. The 2006 accumulation area ratio was less than 0.10, owing to isolated patches of accumulated snow that endured the 2006 summer season. The 2006 equilibrium line altitude was higher than the glacier. The 2007 accumulation area ratio and equilibrium line altitude were 0.60 and 1,880 meters, respectively. Accompanying the glacier mass losses were retreat of the terminus and reduction of total glacier area. The

  1. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites collect visible and infrared cloud imagery as well as monitoring the atmospheric, oceanographic,...

  2. Mathematics and Meteorology: Perfect Partners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bomeli, Cynthia L.

    1991-01-01

    The integration of science and mathematics in the middle school using the topic of meteorology is discussed. Seven selected activities for this approach are suggested. Lists of materials and resources for use in this teaching approach are appended. (CW)

  3. Meteorological features associated with unprecedented precipitation ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    56

    India during 1st week of March 2015. Keywords: Meteorological features, Western Disturbance and Unprecedented precipitation. Manuscript. Click here to view linked References. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9 ...... Mean Omega (Pa/s) at 500 hPa of (a) 28.02.2015, (b) 01.03.2015 and (c) 02.03.2015. Fig.10. 925 hPa GFS model wind ...