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Sample records for model runoff generation

  1. A top-down model to generate ensembles of runoff from a large number of hillslopes

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    P. R. Furey

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available We hypothesize that total hillslope water loss for a rainfall–runoff event is inversely related to a function of a lognormal random variable, based on basin- and point-scale observations taken from the 21 km2 Goodwin Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW in Mississippi, USA. A top-down approach is used to develop a new runoff generation model both to test our physical-statistical hypothesis and to provide a method of generating ensembles of runoff from a large number of hillslopes in a basin. The model is based on the assumption that the probability distributions of a runoff/loss ratio have a space–time rescaling property. We test this assumption using streamflow and rainfall data from GCEW. For over 100 rainfall–runoff events, we find that the spatial probability distributions of a runoff/loss ratio can be rescaled to a new distribution that is common to all events. We interpret random within-event differences in runoff/loss ratios in the model to arise from soil moisture spatial variability. Observations of water loss during events in GCEW support this interpretation. Our model preserves water balance in a mean statistical sense and supports our hypothesis. As an example, we use the model to generate ensembles of runoff at a large number of hillslopes for a rainfall–runoff event in GCEW.

  2. A top-down model to generate ensembles of runoff from a large number of hillslopes

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    Furey, P. R.; Gupta, V. K.; Troutman, B. M.

    2013-09-01

    We hypothesize that total hillslope water loss for a rainfall-runoff event is inversely related to a function of a lognormal random variable, based on basin- and point-scale observations taken from the 21 km2 Goodwin Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW) in Mississippi, USA. A top-down approach is used to develop a new runoff generation model both to test our physical-statistical hypothesis and to provide a method of generating ensembles of runoff from a large number of hillslopes in a basin. The model is based on the assumption that the probability distributions of a runoff/loss ratio have a space-time rescaling property. We test this assumption using streamflow and rainfall data from GCEW. For over 100 rainfall-runoff events, we find that the spatial probability distributions of a runoff/loss ratio can be rescaled to a new distribution that is common to all events. We interpret random within-event differences in runoff/loss ratios in the model to arise from soil moisture spatial variability. Observations of water loss during events in GCEW support this interpretation. Our model preserves water balance in a mean statistical sense and supports our hypothesis. As an example, we use the model to generate ensembles of runoff at a large number of hillslopes for a rainfall-runoff event in GCEW.

  3. Runoff-generated debris flows: observations and modeling of surge initiation, magnitude, and frequency

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    Kean, Jason W.; McCoy, Scott W.; Tucker, Gregory E.; Staley, Dennis M.; Coe, Jeffrey A.

    2013-01-01

    Runoff during intense rainstorms plays a major role in generating debris flows in many alpine areas and burned steeplands. Yet compared to debris flow initiation from shallow landslides, the mechanics by which runoff generates a debris flow are less understood. To better understand debris flow initiation by surface water runoff, we monitored flow stage and rainfall associated with debris flows in the headwaters of two small catchments: a bedrock-dominated alpine basin in central Colorado (0.06 km2) and a recently burned area in southern California (0.01 km2). We also obtained video footage of debris flow initiation and flow dynamics from three cameras at the Colorado site. Stage observations at both sites display distinct patterns in debris flow surge characteristics relative to rainfall intensity (I). We observe small, quasiperiodic surges at low I; large, quasiperiodic surges at intermediate I; and a single large surge followed by small-amplitude fluctuations about a more steady high flow at high I. Video observations of surge formation lead us to the hypothesis that these flow patterns are controlled by upstream variations in channel slope, in which low-gradient sections act as “sediment capacitors,” temporarily storing incoming bed load transported by water flow and periodically releasing the accumulated sediment as a debris flow surge. To explore this hypothesis, we develop a simple one-dimensional morphodynamic model of a sediment capacitor that consists of a system of coupled equations for water flow, bed load transport, slope stability, and mass flow. This model reproduces the essential patterns in surge magnitude and frequency with rainfall intensity observed at the two field sites and provides a new framework for predicting the runoff threshold for debris flow initiation in a burned or alpine setting.

  4. On hydrologic similarity: A dimensionless flood frequency model using a generalized geomorphologic unit hydrograph and partial area runoff generation

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    Sivapalan, Murugesu; Wood, Eric F.; Beven, Keith J.

    1993-01-01

    One of the shortcomings of the original theory of the geomorphologic unit hydrograph (GUH) is that it assumes that runoff is generated uniformly from the entire catchment area. It is now recognized that in many catchments much of the runoff during storm events is produced on partial areas which usually form on narrow bands along the stream network. A storm response model that includes runoff generation on partial areas by both Hortonian and Dunne mechanisms was recently developed by the authors. In this paper a methodology for integrating this partial area runoff generation model with the GUH-based runoff routing model is presented; this leads to a generalized GUH. The generalized GUH and the storm response model are then used to estimate physically based flood frequency distributions. In most previous work the initial moisture state of the catchment had been assumed to be constant for all the storms. In this paper we relax this assumption and allow the initial moisture conditions to vary between storms. The resulting flood frequency distributions are cast in a scaled dimensionless framework where issues such as catchment scale and similarity can be conveniently addressed. A number of experiments are performed to study the sensitivity of the flood frequency response to some of the 'similarity' parameters identified in this formulation. The results indicate that one of the most important components of the derived flood frequency model relates to the specification of processes within the runoff generation model; specifically the inclusion of both saturation excess and Horton infiltration excess runoff production mechanisms. The dominance of these mechanisms over different return periods of the flood frequency distribution can significantly affect the distributional shape and confidence limits about the distribution. Comparisons with observed flood distributions seem to indicate that such mixed runoff production mechanisms influence flood distribution shape. The

  5. Comparing bottom-up and top-down parameterisations of a process-based runoff generation model tailored on floods

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    Antonetti, Manuel; Scherrer, Simon; Margreth, Michael; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2016-04-01

    Information about the spatial distribution of dominant runoff processes (DRPs) can improve flood predictions on ungauged basins, where conceptual rainfall-runoff models usually appear to be limited due to the need for calibration. For example, hydrological classifications based on DRPs can be used as regionalisation tools assuming that, once a model structure and its parameters have been identified for each DRP, they can be transferred to other areas where the same DRP occurs. Here we present a process-based runoff generation model as an event-based spin-off of the conceptual hydrological model PREVAH. The model is grid-based and consists of a specific storage system for each DRP. To unbind the parameter values from catchment-related characteristics, the runoff concentration and the flood routing are uncoupled from the runoff generation routine and simulated separately. For the model parameterisation, two contrasting approaches are applied. First, in a bottom-up approach, the parameters of the runoff generation routine are determined a priori based on the results of sprinkling experiments on 60-100 m2 hillslope plots at several grassland locations in Switzerland. The model is, then, applied on a small catchment (0.5 km2) on the Swiss Plateau, and the parameters linked to the runoff concentration are calibrated on a single heavy rainfall-runoff event. The whole system is finally verified on several nearby catchments of larger sizes (up to 430 km2) affected by different heavy rainfall events. In a second attempt, following a top-down approach, all the parameters are calibrated on the largest catchment under investigation and successively verified on three sub-catchments. Simulation results from both parameterisation techniques are finally compared with results obtained with the traditional PREVAH.

  6. Generation of Natural Runoff Monthly Series at Ungauged Sites Using a Regional Regressive Model

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    Dario Pumo

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Many hydrologic applications require reliable estimates of runoff in river basins to face the widespread lack of data, both in time and in space. A regional method for the reconstruction of monthly runoff series is here developed and applied to Sicily (Italy. A simple modeling structure is adopted, consisting of a regression-based rainfall–runoff model with four model parameters, calibrated through a two-step procedure. Monthly runoff estimates are based on precipitation, temperature, and exploiting the autocorrelation with runoff at the previous month. Model parameters are assessed by specific regional equations as a function of easily measurable physical and climate basin descriptors. The first calibration step is aimed at the identification of a set of parameters optimizing model performances at the level of single basin. Such “optimal” sets are used at the second step, part of a regional regression analysis, to establish the regional equations for model parameters assessment as a function of basin attributes. All the gauged watersheds across the region have been analyzed, selecting 53 basins for model calibration and using the other six basins exclusively for validation. Performances, quantitatively evaluated by different statistical indexes, demonstrate relevant model ability in reproducing the observed hydrological time-series at both the monthly and coarser time resolutions. The methodology, which is easily transferable to other arid and semi-arid areas, provides a reliable tool for filling/reconstructing runoff time series at any gauged or ungauged basin of a region.

  7. Multiple runoff processes and multiple thresholds control agricultural runoff generation

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    Saffarpour, Shabnam; Western, Andrew W.; Adams, Russell; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.

    2016-11-01

    Thresholds and hydrologic connectivity associated with runoff processes are a critical concept for understanding catchment hydrologic response at the event timescale. To date, most attention has focused on single runoff response types, and the role of multiple thresholds and flow path connectivities has not been made explicit. Here we first summarise existing knowledge on the interplay between thresholds, connectivity and runoff processes at the hillslope-small catchment scale into a single figure and use it in examining how runoff response and the catchment threshold response to rainfall affect a suite of runoff generation mechanisms in a small agricultural catchment. A 1.37 ha catchment in the Lang Lang River catchment, Victoria, Australia, was instrumented and hourly data of rainfall, runoff, shallow groundwater level and isotope water samples were collected. The rainfall, runoff and antecedent soil moisture data together with water levels at several shallow piezometers are used to identify runoff processes in the study site. We use isotope and major ion results to further support the findings of the hydrometric data. We analyse 60 rainfall events that produced 38 runoff events over two runoff seasons. Our results show that the catchment hydrologic response was typically controlled by the Antecedent Soil Moisture Index and rainfall characteristics. There was a strong seasonal effect in the antecedent moisture conditions that led to marked seasonal-scale changes in runoff response. Analysis of shallow well data revealed that streamflows early in the runoff season were dominated primarily by saturation excess overland flow from the riparian area. As the runoff season progressed, the catchment soil water storage increased and the hillslopes connected to the riparian area. The hillslopes transferred a significant amount of water to the riparian zone during and following events. Then, during a particularly wet period, this connectivity to the riparian zone, and

  8. Examining runoff generation processes in the Selke catchment in central Germany: Insights from data and semi-distributed numerical model

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    Sumit Sinha

    2016-09-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: We examined the spatio-temporal variation of runoff generating mechanisms on the sub-basin level on seasonal basis. Our analysis reveals that the runoff generation in the Selke catchment is primarily dominated by shallow sub-surface flow and very rarely the contribution from Dunne overland flow exceeds sub-surface flow. Runoff generated by Hortonian mechanism is very infrequent and almost negligible. We also examined the spatio-temporal variation of runoff coefficients on seasonal basis as well as for individual storms. Due to higher precipitation and topographic relief in the upland catchment of Silberhutte, the runoff coefficients were consistently higher and its peak was found in winter months due to lower evapotranspiration.

  9. Modelling of runoff generation and soil moisture dynamics for hillslopes and micro-catchments

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    Bronstert, Axel; Plate, Erich J.

    1997-11-01

    The modelling of hillslope hydrology is of great importance not only for the reason that all non-plain, i.e. hilly or mountainous, landscapes can be considered as being composed of a mosaic of hillslopes. A hillslope model may also be used for both research purposes and for application-oriented, detailed, hillslope-scale hydrological studies in conjunction with related scientific disciplines such as geotechnics, geo-chemistry and environmental technology. Despite the current limited application of multi-process and multi-dimensional hydrological models (particularly at the hillslope scale), hardly any comprehensive model has been available for operational use. In this paper we introduce a model which considers most of the relevant hillslope hydrological processes. Some recent applications are described which demonstrate its ability to narrow the stated gap in hillslope hydrological modelling. The modelling system accounts for the hydrological processes of interception, evapotranspiration, infiltration, soil-moisture movement (where the flow processes can be modelled in three dimensions), surface runoff, subsurface stormflow and streamflow discharge. The relevant process interactions are also included. Special regard has been given to consideration of state-of-the-art knowledge concerning rapid soilwater flow processes during storm conditions (e.g. macropore infiltration, lateral subsurface stormflow, return flow) and to its transfer to and inclusion within an operational modelling scheme. The model is "physically based" in the sense that its parameters have a physical meaning and can be obtained or derived from field measurements. This somewhat weaker than usual definition of a physical basis implies that some of the sub-models (still) contain empirical components, that the effects of the high spatial and temporal variability found in nature cannot always be expressed within the various physical laws, i.e. that the laws are scale dependent, and that due to

  10. scaling theory of floods for predictions in a changing climate: a model to generate ensembles of runoff from a large number of hillslopes (Invited)

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    Furey, P.; Gupta, V. K.; Troutman, B. M.

    2013-12-01

    Peak flows in individual rainfall-runoff events exhibit spatial scaling in the 21 km2 Goodwin Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW) in Mississippi, USA. A nonlinear geophysical theory has been developing to understand how scaling in peak flows for Rainfall-Runoff events arises from solutions of mass and momentum conservation equations in channel networks with self-similar topologies and geometries. The conservation equations are specified at the natural hillslope-link scale. The central hypothesis of the theory is that scaling is an emergent property in the limit of large drainage area. To develop a physical understanding of scaling, runoff generation from each hillslope in the basin is needed. GCEW contains 544 hillslopes, and direct observations of infiltration only exist, at best, at few locations. This situation is typical of all river basins in the world. As a result, representing the spatial and temporal variability of runoff generation throughout any river basin presents a great scientific challenge. Most models use point-scale equations for infiltration and point-scale observations to represent runoff generation at a larger scale, e.g. hillslope scale. We develop a physical-statistical hypothesis, combining both top-down and bottom-up observations, that hillslope water loss is inversely related to a function of a lognormal random variable. We take a top-down approach to develop a new runoff generation model to test our hypothesis. The model is based on the assumption that the probability distributions of a runoff-loss ratio have a space-time rescaling property. For over 100 rainfall-runoff events in GCEW, we found that the spatial probability distributions of a runoff-loss ratio can be rescaled to a new distribution that is common to all events. We interpret that random within-event differences in runoff-loss ratios in the model arise due to soil moisture spatial variability of water loss during events that is supported by observations. As an application of

  11. High-resolution modeling of overland flow and sediment transport following wildfire: Insights into initiation mechanisms and sediment sources for runoff-generated debris flows

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    McGuire, L.; Kean, J. W.; Staley, D. M.; Rengers, F. K.

    2015-12-01

    Sediment transport in steep landscapes may be facilitated by both water-dominated flows and debris-flow processes. Given the differences in erosion potential and mobility possessed by runoff and debris flows, knowledge of the conditions that determine the runoff-to-debris-flow transition has important implications for hazard assessment as well as our understanding of the long-term evolution of steep bedrock channels. Debris flows in alpine areas and burned steeplands are frequently triggered by runoff following high-intensity rainfall, but the mechanics by which runoff generates a debris flow are not well understood. To examine the connections between runoff and debris flow initiation, we developed a numerical model that couples overland flow with sediment transport and debris-flow processes. We applied the model to study erosion and debris-flow initiation that occurred during a rainfall event that produced numerous debris flows within a burned drainage basin in the San Gabriel Mountains, CA, USA. Input data for the numerical model was constrained by rain gauges, stage measurements at the basin outlet, soil-moisture sensors, and high-resolution topographic data obtained using a terrestrial laser scanner (TLS). Numerical model predictions, which compare well with TLS-derived measurements of topographic change, indicate that hillslope erosion at our study site was primarily the result of raindrop-induced sediment transport. Further, results indicate that the majority of sediment eroded from the hillslopes was deposited within the channel system during the storm with only minor amounts being transported out of the basin in suspension. Based on model results, we hypothesize that numerous debris flows were generated from the mass failure of sediment dams that built up within the channel system throughout the storm. This study adds to our understanding of sediment transport in steep landscapes and provides insight into the topographic and hydrologic factors that

  12. Integrated surface-subsurface model to investigate the role of groundwater in headwater catchment runoff generation: A minimalist approach to parameterisation

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    Ala-aho, Pertti; Soulsby, Chris; Wang, Hailong; Tetzlaff, Doerthe

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the role of groundwater for runoff generation in headwater catchments is a challenge in hydrology, particularly so in data-scarce areas. Fully-integrated surface-subsurface modelling has shown potential in increasing process understanding for runoff generation, but high data requirements and difficulties in model calibration are typically assumed to preclude their use in catchment-scale studies. We used a fully integrated surface-subsurface hydrological simulator to enhance groundwater-related process understanding in a headwater catchment with a rich background in empirical data. To set up the model we used minimal data that could be reasonably expected to exist for any experimental catchment. A novel aspect of our approach was in using simplified model parameterisation and including parameters from all model domains (surface, subsurface, evapotranspiration) in automated model calibration. Calibration aimed not only to improve model fit, but also to test the information content of the observations (streamflow, remotely sensed evapotranspiration, median groundwater level) used in calibration objective functions. We identified sensitive parameters in all model domains (subsurface, surface, evapotranspiration), demonstrating that model calibration should be inclusive of parameters from these different model domains. Incorporating groundwater data in calibration objectives improved the model fit for groundwater levels, but simulations did not reproduce well the remotely sensed evapotranspiration time series even after calibration. Spatially explicit model output improved our understanding of how groundwater functions in maintaining streamflow generation primarily via saturation excess overland flow. Steady groundwater inputs created saturated conditions in the valley bottom riparian peatlands, leading to overland flow even during dry periods. Groundwater on the hillslopes was more dynamic in its response to rainfall, acting to expand the saturated area

  13. Distributed hydrological modelling of total dissolved phosphorus transport in an agricultural landscape, part I: distributed runoff generation

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    P. Gérard-Marchant

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Successful implementation of best management practices for reducing non-point source (NPS pollution requires knowledge of the location of saturated areas that produce runoff. A physically-based, fully-distributed, GIS-integrated model, the Soil Moisture Distribution and Routing (SMDR model was developed to simulate the hydrologic behavior of small rural upland watersheds with shallow soils and steep to moderate slopes. The model assumes that gravity is the only driving force of water and that most overland flow occurs as saturation excess. The model uses available soil and climatic data, and requires little calibration. The SMDR model was used to simulate runoff production on a 164-ha farm watershed in Delaware County, New York, in the headwaters of New York City water supply. Apart from land use, distributed input parameters were derived from readily available data. Simulated hydrographs compared reasonably with observed flows at the watershed outlet over a eight year simulation period, and peak timing and intensities were well reproduced. Using off-site weather input data produced occasional missed event peaks. Simulated soil moisture distribution agreed well with observed hydrological features and followed the same spatial trend as observed soil moisture contents sampled on four transects. Model accuracy improved when input variables were calibrated within the range of SSURGO-available parameters. The model will be a useful planning tool for reducing NPS pollution from farms in landscapes similar to the Northeastern US.

  14. Modeling and assessing the effects of land use changes on runoff generation with the CLUE-s and WetSpa models

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    Mohammady, Majid; Moradi, Hamid Reza; Zeinivand, Hossein; Temme, A. J. A. M.; Yazdani, Mohammad Reza; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza

    2017-06-01

    Land use change is an important determinant of hydrological processes and is known to affect hydrological parameters such as runoff volume, flood frequency, base flow, and the partitioning into surface flow and subsurface flow. The main objective of this research was to assess the magnitude of the effect of land use changes on runoff parameters, using the Baghsalian watershed in Iran as a case study site. At first, land use maps of years 1986 and 2012 were prepared using synthetic method, and then simulation was done based on land use changes in the 1986 to 2012 period. Land use map of year 2030 was simulated using CLUE-s model. Spatially distributed hydrological WetSpa model was used to simulate runoff at daily scale with land use maps of 1986, 2012, and 2030. Total volume of runoff, peak flow, and surface flow were compared. The accuracy of the WetSpa model simulation was assessed with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, which had values of 0.61 and 0.56% for the calibration and validation dataset, respectively. The aggregation measure criterion was also calculated and had values of 64 and 62% for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. The main land use changes in Baghsalian watershed between 1986, 2012, and 2030 were the conversion of forest and rangeland to agriculture and residential land use types. Because of these conversions, simulated total runoff volume increased; and the rate of increase in surface runoff was larger than the rate of increase in subsurface runoff. In addition, surface and subsurface runoff increased in 2012 and 2030 compared to 1986 land use map, but the rate of increase of subsurface runoff was less than surface runoff.

  15. Hydrologic conditions controlling runoff generation immediately after wildfire

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    Ebel, Brian A.; Moody, John A.; Martin, Deborah A.

    2012-01-01

    We investigated the control of postwildfire runoff by physical and hydraulic properties of soil, hydrologic states, and an ash layer immediately following wildfire. The field site is within the area burned by the 2010 Fourmile Canyon Fire in Colorado, USA. Physical and hydraulic property characterization included ash thickness, particle size distribution, hydraulic conductivity, and soil water retention curves. Soil water content and matric potential were measured indirectly at several depths below the soil surface to document hydrologic states underneath the ash layer in the unsaturated zone, whereas precipitation and surface runoff were measured directly. Measurements of soil water content showed that almost no water infiltrated below the ash layer into the near-surface soil in the burned site at the storm time scale (i.e., minutes to hours). Runoff generation processes were controlled by and highly sensitive to ash thickness and ash hydraulic properties. The ash layer stored from 97% to 99% of rainfall, which was critical for reducing runoff amounts. The hydrologic response to two rain storms with different rainfall amounts, rainfall intensity, and durations, only ten days apart, indicated that runoff generation was predominantly by the saturation-excess mechanism perched at the ash-soil interface during the first storm and predominantly by the infiltration-excess mechanism at the ash surface during the second storm. Contributing area was not static for the two storms and was 4% (saturation excess) to 68% (infiltration excess) of the catchment area. Our results showed the importance of including hydrologic conditions and hydraulic properties of the ash layer in postwildfire runoff generation models.

  16. Physically-based modifications to the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model. Part A: Modeling the effects of frozen ground on the runoff generation process

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    Koren, Victor; Smith, Michael; Cui, Zhengtao

    2014-11-01

    This paper presents the first of two physically-based modifications to a widely-used and well-validated hydrologic precipitation-runoff model. Here, we modify the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model to include a physically-based representation of the effects of freezing and thawing soil on the runoff generation process. This model is called the SAC-SMA Heat Transfer model (SAC-HT). The frozen ground physics are taken from the Noah land surface model which serves as the land surface component of several National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) numerical weather prediction models. SAC-HT requires a boundary condition of the soil temperature at the bottom of the soil column (a climatic annual air temperature is typically used, and parameters derived from readily available soil texture data). A noteworthy feature of SAC-HT is that the frozen ground component needs no parameter calibration. SAC-HT was tested at 11 sites in the U.S. for soil temperature, one site in Russia for soil temperature and soil moisture, eight basins in the upper Midwest for the effects of frozen-ground on streamflow, and one location for frost depth. High correlation coefficients for simulated soil temperature at three depths at 11 stations were achieved. Multi-year simulations of soil moisture and soil temperature agreed very well at the Valdai, Russia test location. In eight basins affected by seasonally frozen soil in the upper Midwest, SAC-HT provided improved streamflow simulations compared to SAC-SMA when both models used a priori parameters. Further improvement was gained through calibration of the non-frozen ground a priori parameters. Frost depth computed by SAC-HT compared well with observed values in the Root River basin in Minnesota.

  17. RUNOFF GENERATION CHARACTERISTICS IN TYPICAL EROSION REGIONS ON THE LOESS PLATEAU

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    Li CHEN; Qingquan LIU; Jiachun LI

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents a process-based model for runoff generation on slopes. One dimensional kinematic wave theory combined with the revised Green-Ampt infiltration formula is applied in the model. According to the characteristics of soil and rainfall in the Loess Plateau area, six types of storm are defined, and among them three typical erosion zones that have different values of representative parameters are chosen to simulate the runoff generation processes. The primary hydraulic characteristics of the runoff generation, such as unit discharge, runoff depth, flow velocity, shear stress and ratio of runoff generation, are obtained and analyzed. The results demonstrate that the different erosion characteristics are related to different runoff generation zones.

  18. Multifractal modelling of runoffs of karstic springs

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    Márkus, L.

    2003-04-01

    A new multifractal stochastic process, Terdik and Iglói call the Limit of the Integrated Superposition of Diffusion processes with Linear differential Generator (LISDLG) , has been defined for modelling network traffic multifractality. The process is stationary, and exhibits long range dependency or long memory. Its characteristic property is that its bispectrum is real. It serves as the basis of distinction e.g. from the superposition of Levy-processes driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. Its further appealing property is that its finite dimensional distribution stems from multivariate Gamma, therefore it is inherently positive and skewed (and hence non-Gaussian). All together, this makes it a very promising candidate for modelling e.g. runoff data of springs or river flows. Quite recently Labat et al. (2002, J. of Hydrology, Vol 256, pp.176-195) pointed out multifractal properties of the runoff time series of French karstic springs. We show that runoff data of karstic springs in north-east Hungary possesses multifractal and cumulant-multifractal property as well as long range dependency and fit the above described LISDLG process, to model the phenomenon. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by the Nat. Sci. Research Fund OTKA, grant No.: T 032725.

  19. Processes of runoff generation operating during the spring and autumn seasons in a permafrost catchment on semi-arid plateaus

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    Genxu, Wang; Tianxu, Mao; Juan, Chang; Chunlin, Song; Kewei, Huang

    2017-07-01

    There is a lack of knowledge about how to quantify runoff generation and the hydrological processes operating in permafrost catchments on semi-arid plateaus. To understand how freeze-thaw cycles affect runoff generation processes in permafrost catchments, a typical headwater catchment with continuous permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau was measured. A new approach is presented in this study to account for runoff processes on the spring thawing period and autumn freezing period, when runoff generation clearly differs from that of non-permafrost catchments. This approach introduces a soil temperature-based water saturation function and modifies the soil water storage curve with a soil temperature threshold. The results show that surface soil thawing induced saturation excess runoff and subsurface interflow account for approximately 66-86% and 14-34% of total spring runoff, respectively, and the soil temperature significantly affects the runoff generation pattern, the runoff composition and the runoff coefficient with the enlargement of the active layer. The suprapermafrost groundwater discharge decreases exponentially with active layer frozen processes during autumn runoff recession, whereas the ratio of groundwater discharge to total runoff and the direct surface runoff coefficient simultaneously increase. The bidirectional freezing of the active layer controls and changes the autumn runoff processes and runoff composition. The new approach could be used to further develop hydrological models of cold regions dominated by permafrost.

  20. Identifying Landscape Areas Prone to Generating Storm Runoff in Central New York Agricultural Fields

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    Hofmeister, K.; Walter, M. T.

    2015-12-01

    Nonpoint source (NPS) pollution continues to be a leading cause of surface water degradation, especially in agricultural areas. In humid regions where variable source area (VSA) hydrology dominates storm runoff, NPS pollution is generated where VSAs coincide with polluting activities. Mapping storm runoff risks could allow for more precise and informed targeting of NPS pollution mitigation practices in agricultural landscapes. Topographic wetness indices (TWI) provide good approximations of relative soil moisture patterns and relative storm runoff risks. Simulation models are typically used in conjunction with TWIs to quantify VSA behavior. In this study we use empirically derived relationships between TWI values, volumetric water content (VWC) and rainfall frequencies to develop runoff probability maps. Rainfall and soil VWC were measured across regionally representative agricultural areas in central New York over three years (2012-2015) to determine the volume of runoff generated from agricultural fields in the area. We assumed the threshold for storm runoff occurs when the combination of antecedent soil water and rainfall are sufficient to saturate the soil. We determined that approximately 50% of the storm runoff volume is generated from 10% of the land area during spring, summer, and autumn seasons, while the risk of storm runoff generation is higher in the spring and autumn seasons than in the summer for the same area of land.

  1. Climatic impacts on the runoff generation processes in British Columbia, Canada

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    A. Loukas

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The potential impact of future climate change on runoff generation processes in two southern British Columbia catchments was explored using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling Analysis General Circulation Model (CGCMa1 to estimate future changes in precipitation, temperature and cloud cover while the U.B.C. Watershed Model was used to simulate discharges and quantify the separate runoff components, i.e. rainfall, snowmelt, glacier melt and groundwater. Changes, not only in precipitation and temperature but also in the spatial distribution of precipitation with elevation, cloud cover, glacier extension, altitude distribution of vegetation, vegetation biomass production and plant physiology were considered. The future climate of the catchments would be wetter and warmer than the present. In the maritime rain-fed catchment of the Upper Campbell, runoff from rainfall is the most significant source of flow for present and future climatic conditions in the autumn and winter whereas runoff from groundwater generates the flow in spring and summer, especially for the future climate scenario. The total runoff, under the future climatic conditions, would increase in the autumn and winter and decrease in spring and summer. In contrast, in the interior snow-covered Illecillewaet catchment, groundwater is the most significant runoff generation mechanism in the autumn and winter although, at present, significant flow is generated from snowmelt in spring and from glacier runoff in summer. In the future scenario, the contribution to flow from snowmelt would increase in winter and diminish in spring while the runoff from the glacier would remain unchanged; groundwater would then become the most significant source of runoff, which would peak earlier in the season. Keywords: climatic change, hydrological simulation, rainfall, snowmelt, runoff processes

  2. Functional approach to exploring climatic and landscape controls on runoff generation. 2. Timing of runoff storm response

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    Li, Hongyi; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2014-12-09

    Hortonian overland flow, Dunne overland flow and subsurface stormflow are the three dominant mechanisms contributing to both the volume and timing of streamflow. A previous study quantified the climatic and landscape controls on the relative dominance of the volumes of the different runoff components. In this paper we explore the impacts of climate, soil and topography on the timing of these runoff components in small catchments within the framework of the Connected Instantaneous Response Functions (CIRF). The CIRF here is viewed as a probability density function of travel times of water droplets associated with a given runoff generation mechanism (from the locations where they are generated to the catchment outlet). CIRF is a refinement of the traditional catchment IRF in that it explicitly accounts for variable contributing areas: only those partial areas of runoff generation which are hydrologically connected to the outlet are regarded as contributing areas. The CIRFs are derived for each runoff mechanism through the numerical simulations with a spatially distributed hydrological model which accounts for spatially distributed runoff generation and routing, involving all three mechanisms, under multiple combinations of climate, soil and topographic properties. The advective and dispersive aspects of catchment’s runoff routing response are captured through the use of, respectively, the mean travel times and dimensionless forms of the CIRFs (i.e., scaled by their respective mean travel times). It was found that the CIRFs, upon non-dimensionalization, collapsed to common characteristic shapes, which could be explained in terms of the relative contributions of hillslope and channel network flows, and especially of the size of the runoff contributing areas. The contributing areas are themselves governed by the competition between drainage and recharge to the water table, and could be explained by a dimensionless drainage index which quantifies this competition. On

  3. Evaluation of Rainfall-Runoff Models for Mediterranean Subcatchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cilek, A.; Berberoglu, S.; Donmez, C.

    2016-06-01

    The development and the application of rainfall-runoff models have been a corner-stone of hydrological research for many decades. The amount of rainfall and its intensity and variability control the generation of runoff and the erosional processes operating at different scales. These interactions can be greatly variable in Mediterranean catchments with marked hydrological fluctuations. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of rainfall-runoff model, for rainfall-runoff simulation in a Mediterranean subcatchment. The Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA), a simplified hydrological process-based approach, was used in this study to combine hydrological surface runoff factors. In total 128 input layers derived from data set includes; climate, topography, land use, crop type, planting date, and soil characteristics, are required to run the model. Initial ground cover was estimated from the Landsat ETM data provided by ESA. This hydrological model was evaluated in terms of their performance in Goksu River Watershed, Turkey. It is located at the Central Eastern Mediterranean Basin of Turkey. The area is approximately 2000 km2. The landscape is dominated by bare ground, agricultural and forests. The average annual rainfall is 636.4mm. This study has a significant importance to evaluate different model performances in a complex Mediterranean basin. The results provided comprehensive insight including advantages and limitations of modelling approaches in the Mediterranean environment.

  4. EVALUATION OF RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS FOR MEDITERRANEAN SUBCATCHMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Cilek

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The development and the application of rainfall-runoff models have been a corner-stone of hydrological research for many decades. The amount of rainfall and its intensity and variability control the generation of runoff and the erosional processes operating at different scales. These interactions can be greatly variable in Mediterranean catchments with marked hydrological fluctuations. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of rainfall-runoff model, for rainfall-runoff simulation in a Mediterranean subcatchment. The Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA, a simplified hydrological process-based approach, was used in this study to combine hydrological surface runoff factors. In total 128 input layers derived from data set includes; climate, topography, land use, crop type, planting date, and soil characteristics, are required to run the model. Initial ground cover was estimated from the Landsat ETM data provided by ESA. This hydrological model was evaluated in terms of their performance in Goksu River Watershed, Turkey. It is located at the Central Eastern Mediterranean Basin of Turkey. The area is approximately 2000 km2. The landscape is dominated by bare ground, agricultural and forests. The average annual rainfall is 636.4mm. This study has a significant importance to evaluate different model performances in a complex Mediterranean basin. The results provided comprehensive insight including advantages and limitations of modelling approaches in the Mediterranean environment.

  5. Random Modeling of Daily Rainfall and Runoff Using a Seasonal Model and Wavelet Denoising

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-ming Chou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Instead of Fourier smoothing, this study applied wavelet denoising to acquire the smooth seasonal mean and corresponding perturbation term from daily rainfall and runoff data in traditional seasonal models, which use seasonal means for hydrological time series forecasting. The denoised rainfall and runoff time series data were regarded as the smooth seasonal mean. The probability distribution of the percentage coefficients can be obtained from calibrated daily rainfall and runoff data. For validated daily rainfall and runoff data, percentage coefficients were randomly generated according to the probability distribution and the law of linear proportion. Multiplying the generated percentage coefficient by the smooth seasonal mean resulted in the corresponding perturbation term. Random modeling of daily rainfall and runoff can be obtained by adding the perturbation term to the smooth seasonal mean. To verify the accuracy of the proposed method, daily rainfall and runoff data for the Wu-Tu watershed were analyzed. The analytical results demonstrate that wavelet denoising enhances the precision of daily rainfall and runoff modeling of the seasonal model. In addition, the wavelet denoising technique proposed in this study can obtain the smooth seasonal mean of rainfall and runoff processes and is suitable for modeling actual daily rainfall and runoff processes.

  6. A new field method to characterise the runoff generation potential of burned hillslopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheridan, Gary; Lane, Patrick; Langhans, Christoph

    2016-04-01

    The prediction of post fire runoff generation is critical for the estimation of post fire erosion processes and rates. Typical field measures for determining infiltration model parameters include ring infiltrometers, tension infiltrometers, rainfall simulators and natural runoff plots. However predicting the runoff generating potential of post-fire hillslopes is difficult due to the high spatial variability of soil properties relative to the size of the measurement method, the poorly understood relationship between water repellence and runoff generation, known scaling issues with all the above hydraulic measurements, and logistical limitations for measurements in remote environments. In this study we tested a new field method for characterizing surface runoff generation potential that overcomes these limitations and is quick, simple and cheap to apply in the field. The new field method involves the manual application of a 40mm depth of Brilliant Blue FCF food dye along a 10cm wide and 5m long transect along the contour under slightly-ponded conditions. After 24 hours the transect is excavated to a depth of 10cm and the percentage dyed area within the soil profile recorded manually. The dyed area is an index of infiltration potential of the soil during intense rainfall events, and captures both spatial variability and water repellence effects. The dye measurements were made adjacent to long term instrumented post fire rainfall-runoff plots on 7 contrasting soil types over a 6 month period, and the results show surprisingly strong correlations (r2 = 0.9) between the runoff-ratio from the plots and the dyed area. The results are used to develop an initial conceptual model that links the dye index with an infiltration model and parameters suited to burnt hillslopes. The capacity of this method to provide a simple, and reliable indicator of post fire runoff potential from different fire severities, soil types and treatments is explored in this presentation.

  7. How does imperviousness develop and affect runoff generation in an urbanizing watershed?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald Krebs

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Imperviousness associated with urbanization remains one of the biggest challenges in sustainable urban design. The replacement of forests, marshlands, buffers, and wetlands with impervious surfaces, strongly influences hydrological processes in urbanizing areas. This study analyzed the contribution of four constructed surfaces types – roofs, yards, roads, and an international airport – to surface runoff within a 21 km2 watershed, and presents the development over five decades (1977−2030. The land-cover model, used to assess watershed imperviousness in 2030, utilized coefficients between impervious areas generating surface runoff and the floor area, developed during the study. The conducted imperviousness analysis allowed the evaluation of land-use development impacts on the stream network, and the identification of hydrologically active areas for urban planning and stormwater management. Research revealed the importance of yard imperviousness related to suburban residential housing for stormwater runoff generation, and the impacts of transport-related imperviousness on stormwater runoff.

  8. Precipitation-runoff modeling system; user's manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leavesley, G.H.; Lichty, R.W.; Troutman, B.M.; Saindon, L.G.

    1983-01-01

    The concepts, structure, theoretical development, and data requirements of the precipitation-runoff modeling system (PRMS) are described. The precipitation-runoff modeling system is a modular-design, deterministic, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on streamflow, sediment yields, and general basin hydrology. Basin response to normal and extreme rainfall and snowmelt can be simulated to evaluate changes in water balance relationships, flow regimes, flood peaks and volumes, soil-water relationships, sediment yields, and groundwater recharge. Parameter-optimization and sensitivity analysis capabilites are provided to fit selected model parameters and evaluate their individual and joint effects on model output. The modular design provides a flexible framework for continued model system enhancement and hydrologic modeling research and development. (Author 's abstract)

  9. Designing hybrid grass genomes to control runoff generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, C.; Binley, A.; Humphreys, M.; King, I. P.; O'Donovan, S.; Papadopoulos, A.; Turner, L. B.; Watts, C.; Whalley, W. R.; Haygarth, P.

    2010-12-01

    Sustainable management of water in landscapes requires balancing demands of agricultural production whilst moderating downstream effects like flooding. Pasture comprises 69% of global agricultural areas and is essential for producing food and fibre alongside environmental goods and services. Thus there is a need to breed forage grasses that deliver multiple benefits through increased levels of productivity whilst moderating fluxes of water. Here we show that a novel grass hybrid that combines the entire genomes of perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne - the grass of choice for Europe’s forage agriculture) and meadow fescue (Festuca pratensis) has a significant role in flood prevention. Field plot experiments established differences in runoff generation with the hybrid cultivar reducing runoff by 50% compared to perennial ryegrass cultivar, and by 35% compared to a meadow fescue cultivar (34 events over two years, replicated randomized-block design, statistically significant differences). This important research outcome was the result of a project that combined plant genetics, soil physics and plot scale hydrology to identify novel grass genotypes that can reduce runoff from grassland systems. Through a coordinated series of experiments examining effects from the gene to plot scale, we have identified that the rapid growth and then turnover of roots in the L. perenne x F. pratensis hybrid is likely to be a key mechanism in reducing runoff generation. More broadly this is an exciting first step to realizing the potential to design grass genomes to achieve both food production, and to deliver flood control, a key ecosystem service.

  10. Functional approach to exploring climatic and landscape controls of runoff generation. 1. Behavioral constraints on runoff volume

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Hongyi; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Tian, Fuqiang; Harman, Ciaran

    2014-12-09

    Inspired by the Dunne diagram, the climatic and landscape controls on the partitioning of annual runoff into its various components (Hortonian and Dunne overland flow and subsurface stormflow) are assessed quantitatively, from a purely theoretical perspective. A simple distributed hydrologic model has been built sufficient to simulate the effects of different combinations of climate, soil, and topography on the runoff generation processes. The model is driven by a sequence of simple hypothetical precipitation events, for a large combination of climate and landscape properties, and hydrologic responses at the catchment scale are obtained through aggregation of grid-scale responses. It is found, first, that the water balance responses, including relative contributions of different runoff generation mechanisms, could be related to a small set of dimensionless similarity parameters. These capture the competition between the wetting, drying, storage, and drainage functions underlying the catchment responses, and in this way, provide a quantitative approximation of the conceptual Dunne diagram. Second, only a subset of all hypothetical catchment/climate combinations is found to be ‘‘behavioral,’’ in terms of falling sufficiently close to the Budyko curve, describing mean annual runoff as a function of climate aridity. Furthermore, these behavioral combinations are mostly consistent with the qualitative picture presented in the Dunne diagram, indicating clearly the commonality between the Budyko curve and the Dunne diagram. These analyses also suggest clear interrelationships amongst the ‘‘behavioral’’ climate, soil, and topography parameter combinations, implying these catchment properties may be constrained to be codependent in order to satisfy the Budyko curve.

  11. Runoff generation through ephemeral streams in south-east Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doglioni, A.; Simeone, V.; Giustolisi, O.

    2012-04-01

    Ephemeral streams are morphological elements, typical of karst areas, characterized by relatively large and flat bottom transects (Camarasa & Tilford, 2002). These occasionally drain runoff generated by extreme rainfall events, characterized by high return periods. The activation of these streams was investigated by several authors for the Mediterranean regions, and in particular for south Spain and north Africa (Camarasa & Segura, 2001; De Vera, 1984). However, there are few analyses for karst areas of south-east of Italy (Cotecchia, 2006; Polemio, 2010). South-east of Italy, in particular the central part of Apulia, is characterized by a karst morphology, with a moderately elevated plateau, namely Murgia, which is drained by a network of ephemeral streams. These are normally dry, relatively short-length and straights, and their main outlets are on the coast. They normally drain water after extraordinary rainfall events, which can generate very high discharges, which can potentially flood the areas close to the streams. For this reason, the definition of an activation threshold for ephemeral streams is a paramount problem, even if this constitutes a complex problem, since the dynamics of the catchment drained by these streams in highly non-linear and biased by multiple variables (e.g. urbanization, land use, etc.). The main problem affecting the analysis and prediction of flood events in karst semi-arid regions is the almost complete absence of discharge time-series, measured at the outlets of the ephemeral streams. This prevents from the identification of accurate statistics of flood events and on the determination of rainfall events, which may potentially generate floods. Indeed, floods and in general flash floods are relatively rare events for semi-arid karst regions, however they can be really severe and disruptive, causing serious damages to people and infrastructures. This work presents an analysis of the ephemeral stream activation in karst semi-arid areas

  12. MODELING OF STORM WATER RUNOFF FROM GREEN ROOFS

    OpenAIRE

    Ewa Burszta-Adamiak; Wiesław Fiałkiewicz

    2014-01-01

    Apart from direct measurements, modelling of runoff from green roofs is valuable source of information about effectiveness of this type of structure from hydrological point of view. Among different type of models, the most frequently used are numerical models. They allow to assess the impact of green roofs on decrease and attenuation of runoff, reduction of peak runoff and value of water retention. This paper presents preliminary results of research on computing the rate of runoff from green ...

  13. Assessment of runoff contributing catchment areas in rainfall runoff modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Johansen, C.; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

    2006-01-01

    recommended literature values for residential areas. It is proven by comparing rainfall-runoff measurements from four different residential catchments that the literature values of the hydrological reduction factor are over-estimated for this type of catchment. In addition, different catchment descriptions...... are presented in order to investigate how the hydrological reduction factor depends on the level of detail regarding the catchment description. When applying a total survey of the catchment area, including all possible impervious surfaces, a hydrological reduction factor of approximately 0.5 for residential...

  14. Assessment of Runoff Contributing Catchment Areas in Rainfall Runoff Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Johansen, C.; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

    2005-01-01

    recommended literary values for residential areas. It is proven by comparing rainfall-runoff measurements from four different residential catchments that the literary values of the hydrological reduction factor are over-estimated for this type of catchments. In addition, different catchment descriptions...... are presented in order to investigate how the hydrological reduction factor depends on the level of detail regarding the catchment description. When applying a total survey of the catchment area, including all possible impervious surfaces, a hydrological reduction factor of approximately 0.5 for residential...

  15. Analyzing runoff processes through conceptual hydrological modelling in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Dessie

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Understanding runoff processes in a basin is of paramount importance for the effective planning and management of water resources, in particular in data scarce regions of the Upper Blue Nile. Hydrological models representing the underlying hydrological processes can predict river discharges from ungauged catchments and allow for an understanding of the rainfall–runoff processes in those catchments. In this paper, such a conceptual process-based hydrological model is developed and applied to the upper Gumara and Gilgel Abay catchments (both located within the Upper Blue Nile basin, the Lake Tana sub-basin to study the runoff mechanisms and rainfall–runoff processes in the basin. Topography is considered as a proxy for the variability of most of the catchment characteristics. We divided the catchments into different runoff production areas using topographic criteria. Impermeable surfaces (rock outcrops and hard soil pans, common in the Upper Blue Nile basin were considered separately in the conceptual model. Based on model results, it can be inferred that about 65% of the runoff appears in the form of interflow in the Gumara study catchment, and baseflow constitutes the larger proportion of runoff (44–48% in the Gilgel Abay catchment. Direct runoff represents a smaller fraction of the runoff in both catchments (18–19% for the Gumara, and 20% for the Gilgel Abay and most of this direct runoff is generated through infiltration excess runoff mechanism from the impermeable rocks or hard soil pans. The study reveals that the hillslopes are recharge areas (sources of interflow and deep percolation and direct runoff as saturated excess flow prevails from the flat slope areas. Overall, the model study suggests that identifying the catchments into different runoff production areas based on topography and including the impermeable rocky areas separately in the modeling process mimics well the rainfall–runoff process in the Upper Blue Nile basin

  16. Century‐scale variability in global annual runoff examined using a water balance model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McCabe, Gregory J; Wolock, David M

    2011-01-01

    A monthly water balance model (WB model) is used with CRUTS2.1 monthly temperature and precipitation data to generate time series of monthly runoff for all land areas of the globe for the period 1905 through 2002...

  17. Physically based modelling of rainfall-runoff processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diermanse, F.L.M.

    2001-01-01

    This PhD. research was set up to investigate the use of rainfall-runoff models for simulation of high water events in hillslope areas. First, dominant parameters for runoff production during high water events have been identified. Subsequently, the influence of antecedent conditions on runoff percen

  18. Land cover effects on thresholds for surface runoff generation in Eastern Madagascar

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Meerveld, Ilja H. J.; Prasad Ghimire, Chandra; Zwartendijk, Bob W.; Ravelona, Maafaka; Lahitiana, Jaona; Bruijnzeel, L. Adrian

    2016-04-01

    as high as 45%, 12%, and 10%, respectively. Initial analyses indicate that a threshold rainfall amount was required before surface runoff occurs. Comparison of surface runoff occurrence with perched groundwater levels and soil moisture data showed that surface runoff was generated once the top-soil (0-20 cm) became saturated because of impeded drainage to the low hydraulic conductivity deeper layers. Thresholds for saturation overland flow generation were higher at the two forested sites compared to the degraded grassland due to their greater percolation to deeper layers, faster shallow lateral flow, and larger available storage in the top layers. The detailed analyses of the soil moisture and rainfall thresholds for surface runoff generation and their temporal variation will be used to develop a bucket-based conceptual model for runoff generation at these upland tropical sites. Key words: Runoff plot, rainfall threshold, soil moisture, saturation overland flow, secondary forest, soil hydraulic conductivity, Madagascar, p4ges project

  19. Identification of prevailing storm runoff generation mechanisms in an intensively cultivated catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zumr David

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The fact that flash floods initiated in arable catchments are often accompanied by massive sediment and nutrient loads often leads to the assumption that surface runoff is the principle pathway by which runoff reaches watercourses. On the basis of an evaluation of several rainfall-runoff events in a representative agricultural catchment, we show that runoff from cultivated land may be generated in a way similar to that seen on forested slopes, where shallow subsurface runoff is the predominant pathway by which runoff makes its way to watercourses in most runoff events. To identify the predominant runoff pathway, we employed a combination of turbidity measurements and stream discharge data. Suspended sediment flux, a newly introduced index representing the ratio between precipitation duration and total sediment yield, and direction of the discharge-turbidity hysteresis loops were proposed as reflective indicators of the frequency of runoff via different pathways.

  20. Modeling on runoff concentration caused by rainfall on hillslopes and application in Maoping slope

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Qingquan; LI Jiachun

    2006-01-01

    Based on the fact that the concentration flowlines of overland flow depend on the surface landform of hillslope, a kinematic wave model was developed for simulating runoff generation and flow concentration caused by rainfall on hillslopes. The model-simulated results agree well with the experimental observations. Applying the model to the practical case of Maoping slope, we obtained the characteristics of runoff generation and infiltration on the slope. Especially, the simulated results adequately reflected the confluent pattern of surface runoff, which offers a scientific foundation for designing the drainage engineering on the Maoping slope.

  1. Effect of Spatial Heterogeneity of Runoff Generation Mechanisms on the Scaling Behavior of Event Runoff Responses in a Natural River Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Hongyi; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2011-05-26

    This paper investigates the effects of spatial heterogeneity of runoff generation processes on the scaling behavior of event runoff responses in a natural catchment, the Illinois River Basin near Tahlequah in Oklahoma. A previous study in this basin had revealed a systematic spatial trend in the relative dominance of different runoff generation mechanisms, with the fraction of total runoff generation due to the subsurface stormflow mechanism shown to increase in the downstream direction, while surface runoff generation by saturation excess showed a corresponding decrease. These trends were attributable to corresponding systematic trends in landscape properties, namely, saturated hydraulic conductivity of soils and topographic slope. Considering the differences in the timing of hillslope responses between the different runoff generation mechanisms, this paper then explores their impacts on the runoff routing responses, including how they change with increasing spatial scale. For this purpose we utilize a distributed, physically based hydrological model, with a fully hydraulic stream network routing component. The model is used to generate instantaneous response functions (IRF) for nested catchments of a range of sizes along the river network, as well as quantitative measures of their shape, e.g., peak and time-to-peak. In order to decipher and separate the effects of landscape heterogeneity from those due to basin geomorphology and hydrologic regime, the model simulations are carried out for three hypothetical cases that make assumptions about regarding landscape properties (uniform, a systematic trend, and heterogeneity plus the trend), repeating these simulations under wet and dry antecedent conditions. The simulations produced expected (consistent with previous theoretical studies) and also somewhat surprising results. For example, the power-law relationship between peak of the IRF and drainage area is shown to be flatter under wet conditions than under dry

  2. Modeling relationship between runoff and soil properties in dry-farming lands, NW Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaezi, A. R.; Bahrami, H. A.; Sadeghi, S. H. R.; Mahdian, M. H.

    2010-04-01

    The process of transformation of rainfall into runoff over a catchment is very complex and exhibits both temporal and spatial variability. However, in a semi-arid area this variability is mainly controlled by the physical and chemical properties of the soil surface. Developing an accurate and easily-used model that can appropriately determine the runoff generation value is of strong demand. In this study a simple, an empirically based model developed to explore effect of soil properties on runoff generation. Thirty six dry-farming lands under follow conditions in a semi-arid agricultural zone in Hashtroud, NW Iran were considered to installation of runoff plots. Runoff volume was measured at down part of standard plots under natural rainfall events from March 2005 to March 2007. Results indicated that soils were mainly clay loam having 36.7% sand, 31.6% silt and 32.0% clay, and calcareous with about 13% lime. During a 2-year period, 41 natural rainfall events produced surface runoff at the plots. Runoff was negatively (R2=0.61, pfactors controlling runoff in soils of the semi-arid regions.

  3. Modeling relationship between runoff and soil properties in dry-farming lands, NW Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. Vaezi

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The process of transformation of rainfall into runoff over a catchment is very complex and exhibits both temporal and spatial variability. However, in a semi-arid area this variability is mainly controlled by the physical and chemical properties of the soil surface. Developing an accurate and easily-used model that can appropriately determine the runoff generation value is of strong demand. In this study a simple, an empirically based model developed to explore effect of soil properties on runoff generation. Thirty six dry-farming lands under follow conditions in a semi-arid agricultural zone in Hashtroud, NW Iran were considered to installation of runoff plots. Runoff volume was measured at down part of standard plots under natural rainfall events from March 2005 to March 2007. Results indicated that soils were mainly clay loam having 36.7% sand, 31.6% silt and 32.0% clay, and calcareous with about 13% lime. During a 2-year period, 41 natural rainfall events produced surface runoff at the plots. Runoff was negatively (R2=0.61, p<0.001 affected by soil permeability. Runoff also significantly correlated with sand, coarse sand, silt, organic matter, lime, and aggregate stability, while its relationship with very fine sand, clay, gravel and potassium was not significant. Regression analysis showed that runoff was considerably (p<0.001, R2=0.64 related to coarse sand, organic matter and lime. Lime like to coarse sand and organic matter positively correlated with soil permeability and consequently decreased runoff. This result revealed that, lime is one of the most important factors controlling runoff in soils of the semi-arid regions.

  4. Comparing flow duration curve and rainfall-runoff modelling for predicting daily runoff in ungauged catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongqiang; Vaze, Jai; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Li, Ming

    2015-06-01

    Predicting daily runoff time series in ungauged catchments is both important and challenging. For the last few decades, the rainfall-runoff (RR) modelling approach has been the method of choice. There have been very few studies reported in literature which attempt to use flow duration curve (FDC) to predict daily runoff time series. This study comprehensively compares the two approaches using an extensive dataset (228 catchments) for a large region of south-eastern Australia and provides guidelines for choosing the suitable method. For each approach we used the nearest neighbour method and two weightings - a 5-donor simple mathematical average (SA) and a 5-donor inverse-distance weighting (5-IDW) - to predict daily runoff time series. The results show that 5-IDW was noticeably better than a single donor to predict daily runoff time series, especially for the FDC approach. The RR modelling approach calibrated against daily runoff outperformed the FDC approach for predicting high flows. The FDC approach was better at predicting medium to low flows in traditional calibration against the Nash-Sutcliffe-Efficiency or Root Mean Square Error, but when calibrated against a low flow objective function, both the FDC and rainfall-runoff models performed equally well in simulating the low flows. These results indicate that both methods can be further improved to simulate daily hydrographs describing the range of flow metrics in ungauged catchments. Further studies should be carried out for improving the accuracy of predicted FDC in ungauged catchments, including improving the FDC model structure and parameter fitting.

  5. Coupling Xinanjiang runoff generation model with improved BP flow concentration model%新安江产流模型与改进的BP汇流模型耦合应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    阚光远; 刘志雨; 李致家; 姚成; 周赛

    2012-01-01

    In order to improve the flow concentration accuracy of the Xinanjiang model and to reduce the influence of personal experiences on the model calibration, a new rainfall-runoff model called XBK (XAJ-BP-KNN) is developed, coupling the Xinanjiang runoff generation model with the improved version of the back propagation ( BP) flow concentration model. The latter uses the BP neural network algorithm to simulate the nonlinear relationship of the flow concentration process. The flow calculated by Xinanjiang runoff model and antecedent flow are used as the XBK inputs to a BP simulation network. The flow inputs are routed by the BP concentration model to the outlet of the network, which forms the hydrograph at the outlet of the BP simulation network. XBK uses the similarity theory and the K-nearest neighbor algorithm for pattern recognition in an effort to correct the simulation error due to the absence of the observed initial flow data. XBK parameters are optimized globally using the combined method of the shuffled complex evolution (SCE-UA) algorithm and the genetic early stopping Levenberg-Marquardt ( LM ) algorithm. The XBK model is applied to the Chengcun watershed. Compared to the original version of the Xinanjiang model, the result shows that a better model simulation can be achieved with XBK. XBK is easy to apply, and the combined global optimization algorithm is able to identify optimal parameter values.%为提高新安江模型的汇流计算精度并减少经验因素对参数率定的影响,将新安江产流模型与改进的BP汇流模型相耦合,建立XBK (XAJ-BP-KNN)模型.该模型以前期模拟流量和新安江产流模型计算的产流量作为BP网络的输入,出口断面流量作为网络输出,拟合汇流的非线性关系,代替新安江模型的分水源、线性水库及河道马斯京根法的汇流计算;采用相似原理和K-最近邻算法,基于历史样本的模拟误差及相应影响要素对网络输出进行误差修正,实现了

  6. Hillslope soil erosion and runoff model for natural rainfall events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhanyu Zhang; Guohua Zhang; Changqing Zuo; Xiaoyu Pi

    2008-01-01

    By using the momentum theorem and water balance principle, basic equations of slope runoff were derived, soil erosion by raindrop splash and runoff were discussed and a model was established for decribing hillslope soil erosion processes. The numerical solution of the model was obtained by adopting the Preissmann format and considering the common solution-determining conditions, from which not only the runoff and soil erosion but also their processes can be described. The model was validated by ten groups of observation data of Soil Conservation Ecological Science and Technology Demonstration Park of Jiangxi Province. Comparisons show that the maximum relative error between simulation and experimental data is about 10.98% for total runoff and 15% for total erosion, 5.2% for runoff process and 6.1% for erosion process, indicating that the model is conceptually realistic and reliable and offers a feasible approach for further studies on the soil erosion process.

  7. MODELING OF STORM WATER RUNOFF FROM GREEN ROOFS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ewa Burszta-Adamiak

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Apart from direct measurements, modelling of runoff from green roofs is valuable source of information about effectiveness of this type of structure from hydrological point of view. Among different type of models, the most frequently used are numerical models. They allow to assess the impact of green roofs on decrease and attenuation of runoff, reduction of peak runoff and value of water retention. This paper presents preliminary results of research on computing the rate of runoff from green roofs using GARDENIA model. The analysis has been carried out for selected rainfall events registered during measuring campaign on pilot-scale green roofs. Obtained results are promising and show good fit between observed and simulated runoff.

  8. From runoff to rainfall: inverse rainfall–runoff modelling in a high temporal resolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Herrnegger

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel technique to calculate mean areal rainfall in a high temporal resolution of 60 min on the basis of an inverse conceptual rainfall–runoff model and runoff observations. Rainfall exhibits a large spatio-temporal variability, especially in complex alpine terrain. Additionally, the density of the monitoring network in mountainous regions is low and measurements are subjected to major errors, which lead to significant uncertainties in areal rainfall estimates. The most reliable hydrological information available refers to runoff, which in the presented work is used as input for a rainfall–runoff model. Thereby a conceptual, HBV-type model is embedded in an iteration algorithm. For every time step a rainfall value is determined, which results in a simulated runoff value that corresponds to the observation. To verify the existence, uniqueness and stability of the inverse rainfall, numerical experiments with synthetic hydrographs as inputs into the inverse model are carried out successfully. The application of the inverse model with runoff observations as driving input is performed for the Krems catchment (38.4 km2, situated in the northern Austrian Alpine foothills. Compared to station observations in the proximity of the catchment, the inverse rainfall sums and time series have a similar goodness of fit, as the independent INCA rainfall analysis of Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG. Compared to observations, the inverse rainfall estimates show larger rainfall intensities. Numerical experiments show, that cold state conditions in the inverse model do not influence the inverse rainfall estimates, when considering an adequate spin-up time. The application of the inverse model is a feasible approach to obtain improved estimates of mean areal rainfall. These can be used to enhance interpolated rainfall fields, e.g. for the estimation of rainfall correction factors, the parameterisation of

  9. What is the primary driver of downstream connectivity: runoff generation, storage or conveyance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, G.; Elliott, J.; Lobb, D.; Yarotski, J.

    2013-12-01

    Understanding how headwater streams are connected to downstream areas through the generation and delivery of stream discharge is critical for process conceptualization and hydrological modelling. Several factors have been shown to influence downstream connectivity (DC), notably the location of runoff-generating areas, the mitigating effect of surface depressional storage areas on the delivery of runoff to streams, and the effectiveness of diffuse and concentrated flow paths as runoff conveyance features. Limited efforts have been made to rank these factors in order of importance. Here we aimed to identify the relative influence of runoff generation, storage and conveyance factors on DC in an agricultural Prairie watershed. The 75 km2 South Tobacco Creek Watershed (STCW, south-central Manitoba, Canada) is drained by a 20 km-long creek that drops nearly 200 m in elevation over its course; it is characterized by highly seasonal dynamics such as sheet flow on frozen ground in spring, intermittent flow in summer, and significant surface and subsurface flow events in fall. Hourly discharge records were obtained for seven pairs of upstream-downstream gauging stations within the STCW: for each pair, the magnitude of DC was estimated using cross-correlation values of the two discharge timeseries, while the timing of DC was characterized using cross-correlation lags (in hours or days) to assess the delay of peak flows between upstream and downstream stations. LiDAR data was also used to extract topographic information on: i) the location of runoff-generating areas (i.e., upper-, mid-, low- slope and riparian areas), ii) the area and depth of surface depressional storage basins, and iii) the total length of flow conveyance features (defined streams, all flow paths) in the incremental catchment area between upstream and downstream gauging stations. The computed discharge cross-correlation values indicate that the magnitude of DC is highest in spring, followed by fall then

  10. Erosivity, surface runoff, and soil erosion estimation using GIS-coupled runoff-erosion model in the Mamuaba catchment, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marques da Silva, Richarde; Guimarães Santos, Celso Augusto; Carneiro de Lima Silva, Valeriano; Pereira e Silva, Leonardo

    2013-11-01

    This study evaluates erosivity, surface runoff generation, and soil erosion rates for Mamuaba catchment, sub-catchment of Gramame River basin (Brazil) by using the ArcView Soil and Water Assessment Tool (AvSWAT) model. Calibration and validation of the model was performed on monthly basis, and it could simulate surface runoff and soil erosion to a good level of accuracy. Daily rainfall data between 1969 and 1989 from six rain gauges were used, and the monthly rainfall erosivity of each station was computed for all the studied years. In order to evaluate the calibration and validation of the model, monthly runoff data between January 1978 and April 1982 from one runoff gauge were used as well. The estimated soil loss rates were also realistic when compared to what can be observed in the field and to results from previous studies around of catchment. The long-term average soil loss was estimated at 9.4 t ha(-1) year(-1); most of the area of the catchment (60%) was predicted to suffer from a low- to moderate-erosion risk (catchment, the soil erosion was estimated to exceed > 12 t ha(-1) year(-1). Expectedly, estimated soil loss was significantly correlated with measured rainfall and simulated surface runoff. Based on the estimated soil loss rates, the catchment was divided into four priority categories (low, moderate, high and very high) for conservation intervention. The study demonstrates that the AvSWAT model provides a useful tool for soil erosion assessment from catchments and facilitates the planning for a sustainable land management in northeastern Brazil.

  11. Modeling tropical river runoff:A time dependent approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Rashmi Nigam; Sudhir Nigam; Sushil K.Mittal

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting of rainfall and subsequent river runoff is important for many operational problems and applications related to hydrol-ogy. Modeling river runoff often requires rigorous mathematical analysis of vast historical data to arrive at reasonable conclusions. In this paper we have applied the stochastic method to characterize and predict river runoff of the perennial Kulfo River in south-ern Ethiopia. The time series analysis based auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) approach is applied to mean monthly runoff data with 10 and 20 years spans. The varying length of the input runoff data is shown to influence the forecasting efficiency of the stochastic process. Preprocessing of the runoff time series data indicated that the data do not follow a seasonal pattern. Our forecasts were made using parsimonious non seasonal ARIMA models and the results were compared to actual 10-year and 20-year mean monthly runoff data of the Kulfo River. Our results indicate that river runoff forecasts based upon the 10-year data are more accurate and efficient than the model based on the 20-year time series.

  12. PERSiST: a flexible rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit for use with the INCA family of models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Futter, M. N.; Erlandsson, M. A.; Butterfield, D.; Whitehead, P. G.; Oni, S. K.; Wade, A. J.

    2014-02-01

    Runoff generation processes and pathways vary widely between catchments. Credible simulations of solute and pollutant transport in surface waters are dependent on models which facilitate appropriate, catchment-specific representations of perceptual models of the runoff generation process. Here, we present a flexible, semi-distributed landscape-scale rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit suitable for simulating a broad range of user-specified perceptual models of runoff generation and stream flow occurring in different climatic regions and landscape types. PERSiST (the Precipitation, Evapotranspiration and Runoff Simulator for Solute Transport) is designed for simulating present-day hydrology; projecting possible future effects of climate or land use change on runoff and catchment water storage; and generating hydrologic inputs for the Integrated Catchments (INCA) family of models. PERSiST has limited data requirements and is calibrated using observed time series of precipitation, air temperature and runoff at one or more points in a river network. Here, we apply PERSiST to the river Thames in the UK and describe a Monte Carlo tool for model calibration, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis.

  13. RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING IN THE TURKEY RIVER USING ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-01-15

    Jan 15, 2015 ... Modeling rainfall-runoff relationships in a watershed have an important role in water .... Initial estimations will improve following the development of the model. .... Resources Research Nordic Hydrology, 33 (5), 2002,33 1-346.

  14. Runoff erosion

    OpenAIRE

    Evelpidou, Niki; Cordier, Stephane; Merino, Agustin (Ed.); Figueiredo, Tomás; Centeri, Csaba

    2013-01-01

    Table of Contents PART I – THEORY OF RUNOFF EROSION CHAPTER 1 - RUNOFF EROSION – THE MECHANISMS CHAPTER 2 - LARGE SCALE APPROACHES OF RUNOFF EROSION CHAPTER 3 - MEASURING PRESENT RUNOFF EROSION CHAPTER 4 - MODELLING RUNOFF EROSION CHAPTER 5 - RUNOFF EROSION AND HUMAN SOCIETIES: THE INFLUENCE OF LAND USE AND MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ON SOIL EROSION PART II - CASE STUDIES CASE STUDIES – INTRODUCTION: RUNOFF EROSION IN MEDITERRANEAN AREA CASE STUDY 1: Soil Erosion Risk...

  15. Observing and predicting the spatial-temporal pattern of runoff generation processes from the watershed to the regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiler, M.

    2012-12-01

    Runoff generation processes are the key to understand and predict watershed dynamics and behaviour under current as well as under changing conditions. A variety of approaches have been developed to observe these processes at the plot scale (e.g. infiltration and sprinkling experiments), the hillslope scale (soil moisture and piezometer networks and trenching) and the watershed scale (hydrograph separation with stable isotopes and natural tracers). However, predicting the four major runoff generation mechanisms (infiltration excess, saturation excess, subsurface flow and deep percolation) without detailed observation in ungauged watershed is still a challenge, but a prerequisite to track water flow pathways and to make adequate prediction for hydrological extremes. Methods have been developed to map dominant runoff generation processes in the field and with digital maps, however, these methods are often static and do not consider the temporal dynamics of runoff generation processes frequently observed with the various experimental approaches. The recently developed parsimonious rainfall-runoff model DROGen can bridge the gap between across spatial scales in ungauged watersheds since parameters are not calibrated. The model incorporates high-resolution GIS data (1m resolution DEM, land-use, impervious surfaces), hydro-geological and pedological data as well as information about the effect of macropores and preferential flow pathways on runoff generation processes with a comprehensive knowledge base from various field observations and experiments. The model was applied to over 6500 meso-scale watershed in the State of Baden-Württemberg in Germany and 15 gauged watersheds were selected for detailed model evaluation. The evaluation was done with field-mapping of runoff generation processes for direct comparison with the simulated pattern of runoff processes for different types of precipitation (high intensity and short duration / low intensity and long duration) and

  16. Generation of runoff characteristics over three time period for four typical forests in Jinyun Mountain, Chongqing City southwest China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiaoyuan CHU; Yujie WANG; Yiping XIA; Yun WU; Lin CHEN

    2009-01-01

    In order to provide a basis for water conservation in the restoration of vegetation for an urban water resource area, we studied the generation of runoff characteristics in four typical forests over three time periods in Jinyun Mountain, Chongqing City, based on the observation data of rainfall and runoff processes during the period 2002-2005. The results show that: 1) Rainfall was distributed evenly during the years 2002-2005. Annual rainfall variability was 4.46% and coefficient of variation was 0.0618. Average monthly rainfall tended towards a normal distribution N (113.8, 45972). 2) Both precipitation and runoff can be clearly divided into a dry and a wet season. The dry season was from October to March and the wet season from April to September. Most of annual runoff of the four forest stands occurred in the wet season. The surface runoff in the wet season accounted for more than 85% of the annual runoff, and more than 75% of underground runoff. 3) Both peak values of surface runoff and underground runoff occurred in June. The relation between monthly rainfall and surface/underground runoff was fitted by the model W = aP2 + bP + c. The order of annual surface runoff was as follows: Phyllostachys pub-escens forest > shrub forest > mixed Pinus massoniana-broadleaf forest > evergreen broad-leaved forest. The annual underground runoff was evergreen broad-leaved forest > mixed Pinus massoniana-broadleaf forest >Phyl-lostachys pubescens forest > shrub forest. 4) Under similar rainstorms events, the order of the surface runoff coefficient was: evergreen broad-leaved forest mixed Pinus massoniana-broadleaf forest > Phyllostachys pubescens forest > shrub forest. The relation between rainstorms and surface runoff was fitted by the linear relationship: Q = mp-n. Both mixed Pinus massoniana-broadleaf forest and evergreen broad-leaved forest have better flood regulation effects on an annual and monthly basis and per individual rainstorm. The function of Phyllostachys

  17. Revisiting Runoff Model Calibration: Airborne Snow Observatory Results Allow Improved Modeling Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGurk, B. J.; Painter, T. H.

    2014-12-01

    Deterministic snow accumulation and ablation simulation models are widely used by runoff managers throughout the world to predict runoff quantities and timing. Model fitting is typically based on matching modeled runoff volumes and timing with observed flow time series at a few points in the basin. In recent decades, sparse networks of point measurements of the mountain snowpacks have been available to compare with modeled snowpack, but the comparability of results from a snow sensor or course to model polygons of 5 to 50 sq. km is suspect. However, snowpack extent, depth, and derived snow water equivalent have been produced by the NASA/JPL Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) mission for spring of 20013 and 2014 in the Tuolumne River basin above Hetch Hetchy Reservoir. These high-resolution snowpack data have exposed the weakness in a model calibration based on runoff alone. The U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) calibration that was based on 30-years of inflow to Hetch Hetchy produces reasonable inflow results, but modeled spatial snowpack location and water quantity diverged significantly from the weekly measurements made by ASO during the two ablation seasons. The reason is that the PRMS model has many flow paths, storages, and water transfer equations, and a calibrated outflow time series can be right for many wrong reasons. The addition of a detailed knowledge of snow extent and water content constrains the model so that it is a better representation of the actual watershed hydrology. The mechanics of recalibrating PRMS to the ASO measurements will be described, and comparisons in observed versus modeled flow for both a small subbasin and the entire Hetch Hetchy basin will be shown. The recalibrated model provided a bitter fit to the snowmelt recession, a key factor for water managers as they balance declining inflows with demand for power generation and ecosystem releases during the final months of snow melt runoff.

  18. Runoff Simulation of Shitoukoumen Reservoir Basin Based on SWAT Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIE; Miao; LI; Hong-yan; LIU; Tie-juan; RU; Shi-rong

    2012-01-01

    [Objective]The study aimed to simulate the runoff of Shitoukoumen Reservoir basin by using SWAT model. [Method] Based on DEM elevation, land use type, soil type and hydrometeorological data, SWAT model, a distributed hydrological model was established to simulate the monthly runoff of Shitoukoumen Reservoir basin, and the years 2006 and 2010 were chosen as the calibration and validation period respectively. [Result] The simulation results indicated that SWAT model could be used to simulate the runoff of Shitoukoumen Reservoir basin, and the simulation effect was good. However, the response of the model to local rainstorm was not obvious, so that the actual runoff in June and July of 2010 was abnormally higher than the simulation value. [Conclusion] The research could provide theoretical references for the plan and management of water resources in Shitoukoumen Reservoir basin in future.

  19. Modelling surface run-off and trends analysis over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, P. K.; Chauhan, S.; Oza, M. P.

    2016-08-01

    The present study is mainly concerned with detecting the trend of run-off over the mainland of India, during a time period of 35 years, from 1971-2005 (May-October). Rainfall, soil texture, land cover types, slope, etc., were processed and run-off modelling was done using the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) model with modifications and cell size of 5×5 km. The slope and antecedent moisture corrections were incorporated in the existing model. Trend analysis of estimated run-off was done by taking into account different analysis windows such as cell, medium and major river basins, meteorological sub-divisions and elevation zones across India. It was estimated that out of the average 1012.5 mm of rainfall over India (considering the study period of 35 years), 33.8% got converted to surface run-off. An exponential model was developed between the rainfall and the run-off that predicted the run-off with an R 2 of 0.97 and RMSE of 8.31 mm. The run-off trend analysed using the Mann-Kendall test revealed that a significant pattern exists in 22 medium, two major river basins and three meteorological sub-divisions, while there was no evidence of a statistically significant trend in the elevation zones. Among the medium river basins, the highest positive rate of change in the run-off was observed in the Kameng basin (13.6 mm/yr), while the highest negative trend was observed in the Tista upstream basin (-21.4 mm/yr). Changes in run-off provide valuable information for understanding the region's sensitivity to climatic variability.

  20. Modelling surface run-off and trends analysis over India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    P K Gupta; S Chauhan; M P Oza

    2016-08-01

    The present study is mainly concerned with detecting the trend of run-off over the mainland of India, during a time period of 35 years, from 1971–2005 May–October). Rainfall, soil texture, land cover types, slope, etc., were processed and run-off modelling was done using the Natural Resources ConservationService (NRCS) model with modifications and cell size of 5×5 km. The slope and antecedent moisture corrections were incorporated in the existing model. Trend analysis of estimated run-off was done by taking into account different analysis windows such as cell, medium and major river basins, meteorologicalsub-divisions and elevation zones across India. It was estimated that out of the average 1012.5 mm of rainfall over India (considering the study period of 35 years), 33.8% got converted to surface run-off. An exponential model was developed between the rainfall and the run-off that predicted the run-off with an $R^2$ of 0.97 and RMSE of 8.31 mm. The run-off trend analysed using the Mann–Kendall test revealed that a significant pattern exists in 22 medium, two major river basins and three meteorological subdivisions, while there was no evidence of a statistically significant trend in the elevation zones. Among the medium river basins, the highest positive rate of change in the run-off was observed in the Kameng basin (13.6 mm/yr), while the highest negative trend was observed in the Tista upstream basin (−21.4 mm/yr). Changes in run-off provide valuable information for understanding the region’s sensitivity to climatic variability.

  1. Runoff modeling of the Mara River using Satellite Observed Soil ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    with European Remote Sensing (ERS) Scatterometer in modeling runoff of the Zambezi river basin. ... (2008) using Geospatial Stream Flow ... obtained for Mara River at Mara mines, Nyangores at Bomet and Amala at Mulot river gauging ...

  2. Evaluation of Three Models for Simulating Pesticide Runoff from Irrigated Agricultural Fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xuyang; Goh, Kean S

    2015-11-01

    Three models were evaluated for their accuracy in simulating pesticide runoff at the edge of agricultural fields: Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM), and OpusCZ. Modeling results on runoff volume, sediment erosion, and pesticide loss were compared with measurements taken from field studies. Models were also compared on their theoretical foundations and ease of use. For runoff events generated by sprinkler irrigation and rainfall, all models performed equally well with small errors in simulating water, sediment, and pesticide runoff. The mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) were between 3 and 161%. For flood irrigation, OpusCZ simulated runoff and pesticide mass with the highest accuracy, followed by RZWQM and PRZM, likely owning to its unique hydrological algorithm for runoff simulations during flood irrigation. Simulation results from cold model runs by OpusCZ and RZWQM using measured values for model inputs matched closely to the observed values. The MAPE ranged from 28 to 384 and 42 to 168% for OpusCZ and RZWQM, respectively. These satisfactory model outputs showed the models' abilities in mimicking reality. Theoretical evaluations indicated that OpusCZ and RZWQM use mechanistic approaches for hydrology simulation, output data on a subdaily time-step, and were able to simulate management practices and subsurface flow via tile drainage. In contrast, PRZM operates at daily time-step and simulates surface runoff using the USDA Soil Conservation Service's curve number method. Among the three models, OpusCZ and RZWQM were suitable for simulating pesticide runoff in semiarid areas where agriculture is heavily dependent on irrigation.

  3. Rainfall-Runoff Modelling using Modified NRCS-CN,RS and GIS -A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.Sundara Kumar

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Study of rainfall and runoff for any area and modeling it, is one of the important aspects for planning and development of water resources. The development of water resources and its effective management plays a vital role in development of any country more particularly in India, which is an agricultural based economy. Hence it is intended to develop a model of Rainfall and runoff to a river basin and also apply the methodology to Sarada River Basin which has drainage area of 1252.99 Sq.km. The basin is situated in Vishakhapatnam district of Andhra Pradesh, India. The rainfall and runoff data has been collected from the gauging stations of the basin apart from rainfall data from nearby stations. MNRCS-CN method has been adopted to calculate runoff. Various hydrological parameters like soil information, rainfall, land use and land cover (LU/LC were considered to use in MNRCS-CN method. The depth of runoff has been computed for different land use patterns using, IRS-P4- LISS IV data for the study area. Based on the analysis, land use/land cover pattern of Sarada River Basin has been prepared. The land use/land cover patterns were also visually interpreted and digitized using ERDAS IMAGINE software. The raster data was processed in ERDAS and geo-referenced and various maps viz. LU/LC maps, drainage map, contour map, DEM (Digital elevation model have been generated apart from rainfall potential map using GIS tool. The estimated runoff using MNRCS-CN model has been simulated and compared with that of actual runoff. The performance of the model is found to be good for the data considered. The coefficient of determination R2 value for the observed runoff and that of the computed runoff is found to be more than 0.72 for the selected watershed basin

  4. Implementation of a Surface Runoff Model with Horton and Dunne Mechanisms into the Regional Climate Model RegCM_NCC

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI Xueli; XIE Zhenghui; LIU Yiming; YANG Hongwei

    2007-01-01

    A surface runoff parameterization scheme that dynamically represents both Horton and Dunne runoff generation mechanisms within a model grid cell together with a consideration of the subgrid-scale soil heterogeneity, is implemented into the National Climate Center regional climate model (RegCM_NCC). The effects of the modified surface runoff scheme on RegCM_NCC performance are tested with an abnormal heavy rainfall process which occurred in summer 1998. Simulated results show that the model with the original surface runoff scheme (noted as CTL) basically captures the spatial pattern of precipitation, circulation and land surface variables, but generally overestimates rainfall compared to observations. The model with the new surface runoff scheme (noted as NRM) reasonably reproduces the distribution pattern of various variables and effectively diminishes the excessive precipitation in the CTL. The processes involved in the improvement of NRM-simulated rainfall may be as follows: with the new surface runoff scheme, simulated surface runoff is larger, soil moisture and evaporation (latent heat flux) are decreased, the available water into the atmosphere is decreased; correspondingly, the atmosphere is drier and rainfall is decreased through various processes. Therefore, the implementation of the new runoff scheme into the RegCM_NCC has a significant effect on results at not only the land surface, but also the overlying atmosphere.

  5. 1D Runoff-runon stochastic model in the light of queueing theory : heterogeneity and connectivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harel, M.-A.; Mouche, E.; Ledoux, E.

    2012-04-01

    Runoff production on a hillslope during a rainfall event may be simplified as follows. Given a soil of constant infiltrability I, which is the maximum amount of water that the soil can infiltrate, and a constant rainfall intensity R, runoff is observed where R is greater than I. The infiltration rate equals the infiltrability when runoff is produced, R otherwise. When ponding time, topography, and overall spatial and temporal variations of physical parameters, such as R and I, are neglected, the runoff equation remains simple. In this study, we consider soils of spatially variable infiltrability. As runoff can re-infiltrate on down-slope areas of higher infiltrabilities (runon), the resulting process is highly non-linear. The stationary runoff equation is: Qn+1 = max(Qn + (R - In)*Δx , 0) where Qn is the runoff arriving on pixel n of size Δx [L2/T], R and In the rainfall intensity and infiltrability on that same pixel [L/T]. The non-linearity is due to the dependence of infiltration on R and Qn, that is runon. This re-infiltration process generates patterns of runoff along the slope, patterns that organise and connect to each other differently depending on the rainfall intensity and the nature of the soil heterogeneity. The runoff connectivity, assessed using the connectivity function of Allard (1993), affects greatly the dynamics of the runoff hillslope. Our aim is to assess, in a stochastic framework, the runoff organization on 1D slopes with random infiltrabilities (log-normal, exponential, bimodal and uniform distributions) by means of theoretical developments and numerical simulations. This means linking the nature of soil heterogeneity with the resulting runoff organisation. In term of connectivity, we investigate the relations between structural (infiltrability) and functional (runoff) connectivity. A theoretical framework based on the queueing theory is developed. We implement the idea of Jones et al. (2009), who remarked that the above formulation is

  6. Predicting the Impacts of Rural Catchment Changes on Runoff Generation and Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enda O'Connell, P.; Ewen, John; O'Donnell, Greg

    2010-05-01

    While urbanization is widely associated with changes to the runoff generation and flooding regimes of catchments worldwide, the rural landscape has also undergone major changes. Over the past fifty years, much of the European landscape has been transformed as a result of changes in land use and management. The growth in intensive agriculture and associated farming practices have changed natural hydrological functioning at the field/hillslope scale, and as a consequence, flood generation mechanisms at the catchment scale may have been affected. In the UK, there is evidence that soil compaction/degradation has created local scale flooding problems, but it is not clear how flood generation at larger catchment scales may have been affected. A wide range of interventions associated with farming and land use management (e.g. land drainage etc) complicate the overall picture. Similar problems have been observed ad documented in other European countries, and there is the added concern about how the catchments will respond to the more extreme rainfall regimes expected under climate change. There is also frequent controversy over the impacts of afforestation and deforestation in the uplands on lowland floods, particularly in Asia. There is a pressing need for modelling tools that can provide predictions of the impacts of anthropogenic interventions, whether urban or rural, on the downstream flooding regimes of catchments. Central to the prediction problem is the scale issue: how do local scale changes to runoff generation propagate to larger catchment scales and create impacts? An integrated programme of multiscale catchment experimentation and modelling is being undertaken in the UK to gain a better understanding of how small scale changes in runoff generation propagate to larger catchment scales, and to support decision-making on flood risk mitigation. New modelling tools have been developed which can be used to assess impacts and guide management interventions. The first

  7. Modeling of the Monthly Rainfall-Runoff Process Through Regressions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Campos-Aranda Daniel Francisco

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available To solve the problems associated with the assessment of water resources of a river, the modeling of the rainfall-runoff process (RRP allows the deduction of runoff missing data and to extend its record, since generally the information available on precipitation is larger. It also enables the estimation of inputs to reservoirs, when their building led to the suppression of the gauging station. The simplest mathematical model that can be set for the RRP is the linear regression or curve on a monthly basis. Such a model is described in detail and is calibrated with the simultaneous record of monthly rainfall and runoff in Ballesmi hydrometric station, which covers 35 years. Since the runoff of this station has an important contribution from the spring discharge, the record is corrected first by removing that contribution. In order to do this a procedure was developed based either on the monthly average regional runoff coefficients or on nearby and similar watershed; in this case the Tancuilín gauging station was used. Both stations belong to the Partial Hydrologic Region No. 26 (Lower Rio Panuco and are located within the state of San Luis Potosi, México. The study performed indicates that the monthly regression model, due to its conceptual approach, faithfully reproduces monthly average runoff volumes and achieves an excellent approximation in relation to the dispersion, proved by calculation of the means and standard deviations.

  8. Runoff generation mechanism at two distinct headwater catchments - isotopic evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dohnal, Michal; Votrubová, Jana; Šanda, Martin; Tesař, Miroslav; Vogel, Tomáš; Dušek, Jaromír

    2016-04-01

    Data from two headwater catchments indicate considerably different runoff formation mechanisms. The contributions of different surface and subsurface runoff mechanisms to the catchment discharge formation at these two small forested headwater catchments are studied with help of the natural isotopic signatures of the observed fluxes. The Uhlirska catchment (1.78 sq. km, Jizera Mts., Czech Republic) is situated in headwater area of Cerna Nisa stream. Deluviofluvial granitic sediments in the valley bottom areas (riparian zones/wetlands) are surrounded by gentle hillslopes with shallow soils developed on crystalline bedrock. The Liz catchment (0.99 sq. km, Bohemian Forest, Czech Republic) belongs to hillslope-type catchments without riparian zones situated in headwater area of Volynka River. The soil at Liz is developed on biotite paragneiss bedrock. Autocorrelation analysis of the measured catchment discharge rates reveals different hydrograph characteristics for each of the two catchments. Estimated autocorrelation lengths differ by an order of magnitude. Variations of oxygen-18 isotope concentrations in precipitation, groundwater and streamflow were analyzed. Several significant rainfall-runoff events at each of the two catchments were analyzed in detail. These events exhibit substantial difference in isotopic compositions of event and pre-event water, which facilitates hydrograph separation. Clockwise and counterclockwise hysteretic relationships between the stream discharge and its isotope concentration were identified. Results were confronted with the previously published concepts of the runoff formation at the catchments under study. The research was funded by the Czech Science Foundation, project No. 14-15201J.

  9. Piezometric response in shallow bedrock at CB1: Implications for runoff generation and landsliding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, David R.; Dietrich, William E.; Heffner, John T.

    2002-12-01

    Experimental observations comparing two steep unchanneled valleys in the Oregon Coast Range, one intensively instrumented (CB1) and the other monitored for runoff but which produced a debris flow (CB2), shed light on the mechanisms of shallow flow in bedrock, its interaction with the vadose zone, and its role in generating landslides. Previous work at CB1 led to the proposal that during storms pulses of rainfall transmit pressure waves through the vadose zone and down to the saturated zone to create rapid pore pressure response and runoff [, 1998]. Here, we document the associated rapid pore pressure response in the shallow fractured bedrock that underlies these colluvium-mantled sites and examine its influence on the generation of storm flow, seasonal variations in base flow, and slope stability in the overlying colluvial soil. Our observations document rapid piezometric response in the shallow bedrock and a substantial contribution of shallow fracture flow to both storm flow and seasonal variations in base flow. Saturated hydraulic conductivity in the colluvial soil decreases with depth below the ground surface, but the conductivity of the near-surface bedrock displays no depth dependence and varies over five orders of magnitude. Analysis of runoff intensity and duration in a series of storms that did and did not trigger debris flows in the surrounding area shows that the landslide inducing storms had the greatest intensity over durations similar to those predicted by a simple model of piezometric response. During a monitored storm in February 1992, the channel head at the base of the neighboring CB2 site failed as a debris flow. Automated piezometric measurements document that the CB2 debris flow initiated several hours after peak discharge, coincident with localized development of upward spikes of pressure head from near-surface bedrock into the overlying colluvial soil in CB1. Artesian flow observed exfiltrating from bedrock fractures on the failure surfaces

  10. Application of SCS Model in Estimation of Runoff from Small Watershed in Loess Plateau of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Xianzhao; LI Jiazhu

    2008-01-01

    Soil Conservation Service (SCS) model,developed by U.S.Soil Conservation Service in 1972,has been widely applied in the estimation of runoff from an small watershed.In this paper,based on the remote sensing geo-information data of land use and soil classification all obtained from Landsat images in 1996 and 1997 and conventional data of hydrology and meteorology,the SCS model was investigated for simulating the surface runoff for single rainstorm in Wangdonggou watershed,a typical small watershed in the Loess Plateau,located in Changwu County of Shaanxi Province of China.Wangdonggou watershed was compartmentalized into 28 sub-units according to natural draining division,and the table of curve number (CN) values fitting for Wangdonggou watershed was also presented.During the flood period from 1996 to 1997,the hydrograph of calculated runoff process using the SCS model and the hydrograph of observed runoff process coincided very well in height as well as shape,and the model was of high precision above 75%.It is indicated that the SCS model is legitimate and can be successfully used to simulate the runoff generation and the runoff process of typical small watershed based on the remote sensing geo-information in the Loess Plateau.

  11. The impacts of assimilating satellite soil moisture into a rainfall-runoff model in a semi-arid catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soil moisture plays a key role in runoff generation processes. As a result, the assimilation of soil moisture observations into rainfall-runoff models is increasingly being investigated. Given the scarcity of ground-based in situ measurements, satellite soil moisture observations offer a valuable da...

  12. Investigation of runoff generation from anthropogenic sources with dissolved xenobiotics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krein, A.; Pailler, J.; Guignard, C.; Iffly, J.; Pfister, L.; Hoffmann, L.

    2009-04-01

    In the experimental Mess basin (35 km2, Luxembourg) dissolved xenobiotics in surface water are used to study the influences of anthropogenic sources like separated sewer systems on runoff generation. Emerging contaminants like pharmaceuticals are of growing interest because of their use in large quantities in human and veterinary medicine. The amounts reaching surface waters depend on rainfall patterns, hydraulic conditions, consumption, metabolism, degradation, and disposal. The behaviour of endocrine disruptors including pharmaceuticals in the aquatic environment is widely unknown. The twelve molecules analyzed belong to three families: the estrogens, the antibiotics (sulfonamides, tetracyclines), and the painkillers (ibuprofen, diclofenac). Xenobiotics can be used as potential environmental tracers for untreated sewerage. Our results show that the concentrations are highly variable during flood events. The highest concentrations are reached in the first flush period, mainly during the rising limb of the flood hydrographs. As a result of the kinematic wave effect the concentration peak occurs in some cases a few hours after the discharge maximum. In floodwater (eleven floods, 66 samples) the highest concentrations were measured for ibuprofen (g/l range), estrone, and diclofenac (all ng/l range). From the tetracycline group, essentially tetracycline itself is of relevance, while the sulfonamides are mainly represented by sulfamethoxazole (all in ng/l range). In the Mess River the pharmaceuticals fluxes during flood events proved to be influenced by hydrological conditions. Different pharmaceuticals showed their concentration peaks during different times of a flood event. An example is the estrone peak that - during summer flash floods - often occurred one to two hours prior to the largest concentrations of the painkillers. This suggests for more sources than the sole storm drainage through the spillway of the single sewage water treatment plant, different

  13. Estimating degree day factors from MODIS for snowmelt runoff modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. H. He

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Degree-day factors are widely used to estimate snowmelt runoff in operational hydrological models. Usually, they are calibrated on observed runoff, and sometimes on satellite snow cover data. In this paper, we propose a new method for estimating the snowmelt degree-day factor (DDFS directly from MODIS snow covered area (SCA and ground based snow depth data without calibration. Subcatchment snow volume is estimated by combining SCA and snow depths. Snow density is estimated as the ratio of observed precipitation and changes in the snow volume for days with snow accumulation. Finally, DDFS values are estimated as the ratio of changes in the snow water equivalent and degree-day temperatures for days with snow melt. We compare simulations of basin runoff and snow cover patterns using spatially variable DDFS estimated from snow data with those using spatially uniform DDFS calibrated on runoff. The runoff performances using estimated DDFS are slightly improved, and the simulated snow cover patterns are significantly more plausible. The new method may help reduce some of the runoff model parameter uncertainty by reducing the total number of calibration parameters.

  14. Comparative Analysis of Uncertainties in Urban Surface Runoff Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

    2007-01-01

    In the present paper a comparison between three different surface runoff models, in the numerical urban drainage tool MOUSE, is conducted. Analysing parameter uncertainty, it is shown that the models are very sensitive with regards to the choice of hydrological parameters, when combined overflow...... analysis, further research in improved parameter assessment for surface runoff models is needed....... volumes are compared - especially when the models are uncalibrated. The occurrences of flooding and surcharge are highly dependent on both hydrological and hydrodynamic parameters. Thus, the conclusion of the paper is that if the use of model simulations is to be a reliable tool for drainage system...

  15. Event-based stormwater management pond runoff temperature model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabouri, F.; Gharabaghi, B.; Sattar, A. M. A.; Thompson, A. M.

    2016-09-01

    Stormwater management wet ponds are generally very shallow and hence can significantly increase (about 5.4 °C on average in this study) runoff temperatures in summer months, which adversely affects receiving urban stream ecosystems. This study uses gene expression programming (GEP) and artificial neural networks (ANN) modeling techniques to advance our knowledge of the key factors governing thermal enrichment effects of stormwater ponds. The models developed in this study build upon and compliment the ANN model developed by Sabouri et al. (2013) that predicts the catchment event mean runoff temperature entering the pond as a function of event climatic and catchment characteristic parameters. The key factors that control pond outlet runoff temperature, include: (1) Upland Catchment Parameters (catchment drainage area and event mean runoff temperature inflow to the pond); (2) Climatic Parameters (rainfall depth, event mean air temperature, and pond initial water temperature); and (3) Pond Design Parameters (pond length-to-width ratio, pond surface area, pond average depth, and pond outlet depth). We used monitoring data for three summers from 2009 to 2011 in four stormwater management ponds, located in the cities of Guelph and Kitchener, Ontario, Canada to develop the models. The prediction uncertainties of the developed ANN and GEP models for the case study sites are around 0.4% and 1.7% of the median value. Sensitivity analysis of the trained models indicates that the thermal enrichment of the pond outlet runoff is inversely proportional to pond length-to-width ratio, pond outlet depth, and directly proportional to event runoff volume, event mean pond inflow runoff temperature, and pond initial water temperature.

  16. A coupled weather generator - rainfall-runoff approach on hourly time steps for flood risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Benjamin; Schneeberger, Klaus; Dung Nguyen, Viet; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Huttenlau, Matthias; Merz, Bruno; Stötter, Johann

    2017-04-01

    The evaluation of potential monetary damage of flooding is an essential part of flood risk management. One possibility to estimate the monetary risk is to analyze long time series of observed flood events and their corresponding damages. In reality, however, only few flood events are documented. This limitation can be overcome by the generation of a set of synthetic, physically and spatial plausible flood events and subsequently the estimation of the resulting monetary damages. In the present work, a set of synthetic flood events is generated by a continuous rainfall-runoff simulation in combination with a coupled weather generator and temporal disaggregation procedure for the study area of Vorarlberg (Austria). Most flood risk studies focus on daily time steps, however, the mesoscale alpine study area is characterized by short concentration times, leading to large differences between daily mean and daily maximum discharge. Accordingly, an hourly time step is needed for the simulations. The hourly metrological input for the rainfall-runoff model is generated in a two-step approach. A synthetic daily dataset is generated by a multivariate and multisite weather generator and subsequently disaggregated to hourly time steps with a k-Nearest-Neighbor model. Following the event generation procedure, the negative consequences of flooding are analyzed. The corresponding flood damage for each synthetic event is estimated by combining the synthetic discharge at representative points of the river network with a loss probability relation for each community in the study area. The loss probability relation is based on exposure and susceptibility analyses on a single object basis (residential buildings) for certain return periods. For these impact analyses official inundation maps of the study area are used. Finally, by analyzing the total event time series of damages, the expected annual damage or losses associated with a certain probability of occurrence can be estimated for

  17. Sensitivity analysis of surface runoff generation in urban flood forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simões, N E; Leitão, J P; Maksimović, C; Sá Marques, A; Pina, R

    2010-01-01

    Reliable flood forecasting requires hydraulic models capable to estimate pluvial flooding fast enough in order to enable successful operational responses. Increased computational speed can be achieved by using a 1D/1D model, since 2D models are too computationally demanding. Further changes can be made by simplifying 1D network models, removing and by changing some secondary elements. The Urban Water Research Group (UWRG) of Imperial College London developed a tool that automatically analyses, quantifies and generates 1D overland flow network. The overland flow network features (ponds and flow pathways) generated by this methodology are dependent on the number of sewer network manholes and sewer inlets, as some of the overland flow pathways start at manholes (or sewer inlets) locations. Thus, if a simplified version of the sewer network has less manholes (or sewer inlets) than the original one, the overland flow network will be consequently different. This paper compares different overland flow networks generated with different levels of sewer network skeletonisation. Sensitivity analysis is carried out in one catchment area in Coimbra, Portugal, in order to evaluate overland flow network characteristics.

  18. Uncertainty based modeling of rainfall-runoff: Combined differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and K-means clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahmatkesh, Zahra; Karamouz, Mohammad; Nazif, Sara

    2015-09-01

    Simulation of rainfall-runoff process in urban areas is of great importance considering the consequences and damages of extreme runoff events and floods. The first issue in flood hazard analysis is rainfall simulation. Large scale climate signals have been proved to be effective in rainfall simulation and prediction. In this study, an integrated scheme is developed for rainfall-runoff modeling considering different sources of uncertainty. This scheme includes three main steps of rainfall forecasting, rainfall-runoff simulation and future runoff prediction. In the first step, data driven models are developed and used to forecast rainfall using large scale climate signals as rainfall predictors. Due to high effect of different sources of uncertainty on the output of hydrologic models, in the second step uncertainty associated with input data, model parameters and model structure is incorporated in rainfall-runoff modeling and simulation. Three rainfall-runoff simulation models are developed for consideration of model conceptual (structural) uncertainty in real time runoff forecasting. To analyze the uncertainty of the model structure, streamflows generated by alternative rainfall-runoff models are combined, through developing a weighting method based on K-means clustering. Model parameters and input uncertainty are investigated using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Finally, calibrated rainfall-runoff models are driven using the forecasted rainfall to predict future runoff for the watershed. The proposed scheme is employed in the case study of the Bronx River watershed, New York City. Results of uncertainty analysis of rainfall-runoff modeling reveal that simultaneous estimation of model parameters and input uncertainty significantly changes the probability distribution of the model parameters. It is also observed that by combining the outputs of the hydrological models using the proposed clustering scheme, the accuracy of runoff simulation in the

  19. Fuzzy committees of specialised rainfall-runoff models: further enhancements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.; Ye, J.; Fenicia, F.; Solomatine, D.P.

    2013-01-01

    Often a single hydrological model cannot capture the details of a complex rainfall-runoff relationship, and a possibility here is building specialised models to be responsible for a particular aspect of this relationship and combining them forming a committee model. This study extends earlier work o

  20. Modelling runoff from a Himalayan debris-covered glacier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Fujita

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Although the processes by which glacial debris-mantles alter the melting of glacier ice have been well studied, the mass balance and runoff patterns of Himalayan debris-covered glaciers and the response of these factors to climate change are not well understood. Many previous studies have addressed mechanisms of ice melt under debris mantles by applying multiplicative parameters derived from field experiments, and other studies have calculated the details of heat conduction through the debris layer. However, those approaches cannot be applied at catchment scales because debris distributions are heterogeneous and difficult to measure. Here, we establish a runoff model for a Himalayan debris-covered glacier in which the spatial distribution of the thermal properties of the debris mantle is estimated from remotely sensed multi-temporal data. We validated the model for the Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake–Trambau Glacier basin in the Nepal Himalaya, using hydro-meteorological observations obtained for a 3.5 yr period (1993–1996. We calculated long-term averages of runoff components for the period 1980–2007 using gridded reanalysis datasets. Our calculations suggest that excess meltwater from the debris-covered area contributes significantly to the total runoff, mainly because of its location at lower elevations. Uncertainties in runoff values due to estimations of the thermal properties and albedo of the debris-covered surface were assessed to be approximately 8% of the runoff from the debris-covered area. We evaluated the sensitivities of runoff components to changes in air temperature and precipitation. As expected, warmer air temperatures increase the total runoff by increasing the melting rate; however, increased precipitation slightly reduces the total runoff, as ice melting is suppressed by the increased snow cover and associated high albedo. The response of total runoff to changing precipitation is complex because of the different responses of

  1. Discharge Water Quality Models of Storm Runoff in a Catchment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The relationships between the water qualities of nitrogen and phosphorous contents in the discharge water and the discharge of storm runoff of an experimental catchment including terraced paddy field are analyzed based on experiment results of the catchment. By summarizing the currently related research on water quality models, the water quality models of different components of storm runoff of the catchment are presented and verified with the experiment data of water quality analyses and the corresponding discharge of the storm runoffs during 3 storms. Through estimating the specific discharge of storm runoff, the specific load of different components of nitrogen and phosphorus in the discharge water of the catchment can be forecasted by the models. It is found that the mathematical methods of linear regression are very useful for analysis of the relationship between the concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus and the water discharge of storm runoff. It is also found that the most content of the nitrogen (75%) in the discharge water is organic, while half of the content (49%) of phosphorus in the discharge water is inorganic.

  2. Inverse modeling of hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in the Community Land Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Sun

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This study demonstrates the possibility of inverting hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4. Previous studies showed that surface flux and runoff calculations are sensitive to major hydrologic parameters in CLM4 over different watersheds, and illustrated the necessity and possibility of parameter calibration. Two inversion strategies, the deterministic least-square fitting and stochastic Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC Bayesian inversion approaches, are evaluated by applying them to CLM4 at selected sites. The unknowns to be estimated include surface and subsurface runoff generation parameters and vadose zone soil water parameters. We find that using model parameters calibrated by the least-square fitting provides little improvements in the model simulations but the sampling-based stochastic inversion approaches are consistent – as more information comes in, the predictive intervals of the calibrated parameters become narrower and the misfits between the calculated and observed responses decrease. In general, parameters that are identified to be significant through sensitivity analyses and statistical tests are better calibrated than those with weak or nonlinear impacts on flux or runoff observations. Temporal resolution of observations has larger impacts on the results of inverse modeling using heat flux data than runoff data. Soil and vegetation cover have important impacts on parameter sensitivities, leading to different patterns of posterior distributions of parameters at different sites. Overall, the MCMC-Bayesian inversion approach effectively and reliably improves the simulation of CLM under different climates and environmental conditions. Bayesian model averaging of the posterior estimates with different reference acceptance probabilities can smooth the posterior distribution and provide more reliable parameter estimates, but at the expense of wider uncertainty

  3. The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS): development of a novel parametric rainfall-runoff model using field experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brauer, Claudia; Torfs, Paul; Teuling, Ryan; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2014-05-01

    We present the Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS), a novel rainfall-runoff model to fill the gap between complex, spatially distributed models for lowland catchments and simple, parametric models for mountainous catchments. From observations and experience from two Dutch field sites (the Hupsel Brook catchment and the Cabauw polder), we identified key processes for runoff generation in lowland catchments and important feedbacks between components in the hydrological system. We used this knowledge to design a parametric model which can be used all over the world in both freely draining lowland catchments and polders with controlled water levels. While using only four parameters which require calibration, WALRUS explicitly accounts for processes that are important in lowland areas: (1) Groundwater-unsaturated zone coupling: WALRUS contains one soil reservoir, which is divided effectively by the (dynamic) groundwater table into a groundwater zone and a vadose zone. The condition of this soil reservoir is described by two strongly dependent variables: the groundwater depth and the storage deficit (the effective thickness of empty pores). This implementation enables capillary rise when the top soil has dried through evapotranspiration. (2) Wetness-dependent flowroutes: The storage deficit determines the division of rain water between the soil reservoir (slow routes: infiltration, percolation and groundwater flow) and a quickflow reservoir (quick routes: drainpipe, macropore and overland flow). (3) Groundwater-surface water feedbacks: Surface water forms an explicit part of the model structure. Drainage depends on the difference between surface water level and groundwater level (rather than groundwater level alone), allowing for feedbacks and infiltration of surface water into the soil. (4) Seepage and surface water supply: Groundwater seepage and surface water supply or extraction (pumping) are added to or subtracted from the soil or surface water reservoir

  4. Supporting data for “A glacier runoff extension to the precipitation runoff modeling system”

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Beusekom, Ashley; Viger, Roland

    2017-01-01

    This product is an archive of the modeling artifacts used to produce a journal paper (Van Beusekom and Viger, 2016). The abstract for that paper follows. A module to simulate glacier runoff, PRMSglacier, was added to PRMS (Precipitation Runoff Modeling System), a distributed-parameter, physical-process hydrological simulation code. The extension does not require extensive on-glacier measurements or computational expense but still relies on physical principles over empirical relations as much as is feasible while maintaining model usability. PRMSglacier is validated on two basins in Alaska, Wolverine, and Gulkana Glacier basin, which have been studied since 1966 and have a substantial amount of data with which to test model performance over a long period of time covering a wide range of climatic and hydrologic conditions. When error in field measurements is considered, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of streamflow are 0.87 and 0.86, the absolute bias fractions of the winter mass balance simulations are 0.10 and 0.08, and the absolute bias fractions of the summer mass balances are 0.01 and 0.03, all computed over 42 years for the Wolverine and Gulkana Glacier basins, respectively. Without taking into account measurement error, the values are still within the range achieved by the more computationally expensive codes tested over shorter time periods.

  5. Runoff forecasting by artificial neural network and conventional model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.R. Ghumman

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall runoff models are highly useful for water resources planning and development. In the present study rainfall–runoff model based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs was developed and applied on a watershed in Pakistan. The model was developed to suite the conditions in which the collected dataset is short and the quality of dataset is questionable. The results of ANN models were compared with a mathematical conceptual model. The cross validation approach was adopted for the generalization of ANN models. The precipitation used data was collected from Meteorological Department Karachi Pakistan. The results confirmed that ANN model is an important alternative to conceptual models and it can be used when the range of collected dataset is short and data is of low standard.

  6. Development of a Cell-based Model to Derive Direct Runoff Hydrographs for Ungauged Mountainous Basins

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    A model to derive direct runoff hydrograph for an ungauged basin using the physical properties of the basin is presented. The basin is divided into grid cells and canal elements. Overland flow is generated from each grid cell of the basin by application of continuous effective rainfall of 1 mm/hr to the basin. The flow generated is routed through downstream grid cells and the canal elements using the kinematic wave approach. The travel time for direct runoff from each grid cell to the basin outlet is calculated and the S-curve is derived for the basin.The S-curve is used to derive the unit hydrograph of a given duration for the basin. The model, referred as Cell-basin model was applied to the Upper Kotmale Basin in Sri Lanka and the model predictions of direct runoff hydrographs for rainfall events agreed with the observations to a reasonable accuracy. Comparison of the unit hydrographs obtained from the model and from the conventional Snyder's synthetic unit hydrograph using regionalized parameters assuming the basin as an ungauged basin, with the unit hydrograph derived from the observations showed that the model predicted unit hydrograph was more suitable than that obtained by Snyder's method for Sri Lankan up country basins. Thus, the present model is a useful tool to obtain direct runoff hydrograph for ungauged basins.

  7. Model based monitoring of stormwater runoff quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birch, Heidi; Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2012-01-01

    the information obtained about MPs discharged from the monitored system. A dynamic stormwater quality model was calibrated using MP data collected by volume-proportional and passive sampling in a storm drainage system in the outskirts of Copenhagen (Denmark) and a 10-year rain series was used to find annual......) for calibration of the model resulted in the same predicted level but narrower model prediction bounds than calibrations based on volume-proportional samples, allowing a better exploitation of the resources allocated for stormwater quality management.......Monitoring of micropollutants (MP) in stormwater is essential to evaluate the impacts of stormwater on the receiving aquatic environment. The aim of this study was to investigate how different strategies for monitoring of stormwater quality (combination of model with field sampling) affect...

  8. Model based monitoring of stormwater runoff quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birch, Heidi; Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2012-01-01

    Monitoring of micropollutants (MP) in stormwater is essential to evaluate the impacts of stormwater on the receiving aquatic environment. The aim of this study was to investigate how different strategies for monitoring of stormwater quality (combination of model with field sampling) affect...... the information obtained about MPs discharged from the monitored system. A dynamic stormwater quality model was calibrated using MP data collected by volume-proportional and passive sampling in a storm drainage system in the outskirts of Copenhagen (Denmark) and a 10-year rain series was used to find annual...

  9. Selection of an appropriately simple storm runoff model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. J. M. van Dijk

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Alternative conceptual storm runoff models, including several published ones, were evaluated against storm flow time series for 260 catchments in Australia (23–1902 km2. The original daily streamflow data was separated into baseflow and storm flow components and from these, event rainfall and storm flow totals were estimated. For each tested model structure, the number of free parameters was reduced in stages. The appropriate balance between simplicity and explanatory power was decided based on Aikake's Final Prediction Error Criterion and evidence of parameter equivalence. The majority of catchments showed storm recession half-times in the order of a day, with more rapid drainage in dry catchments. Overland and channel travel time did not appear to be an important driver of storm flow recession. A storm runoff model with two free parameters (one related to storm event size, the other to antecedent baseflow and a fixed initial loss of 12 mm provided the optimal model structure. The optimal model had some features similar to the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number technique, but performed an average 12 to 19% better. The non-linear relationship between event rainfall and event runoff may be associated with saturated area expansion during storms and/or the relationship between storm event size and peak rainfall intensity. Antecedent baseflow was a strong predictor of runoff response. A simple conceptual relationship between groundwater storage and saturated catchment area proved adequate and produced realistic estimates of saturated area of <0.1% for the driest and >5% for the wettest catchments.

  10. Initiation processes for run-off generated debris flows in the Wenchuan earthquake area of China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hu, W.; Dong, X. J.; Xu, Q.; Wang, G. H.; van Asch, T. W J; Hicher, P. Y.

    2016-01-01

    The frequency of huge debris flows greatly increased in the epicenter area of the Wenchuan earthquake. Field investigation revealed that runoff during rainstorm played a major role in generating debris flows on the loose deposits, left by coseismic debris avalanches. However, the mechanisms of these

  11. Regionalized rainfall-runoff model to estimate low flow indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Florine; Folton, Nathalie; Oudin, Ludovic

    2016-04-01

    Estimating low flow indices is of paramount importance to manage water resources and risk assessments. These indices are derived from river discharges which are measured at gauged stations. However, the lack of observations at ungauged sites bring the necessity of developing methods to estimate these low flow indices from observed discharges in neighboring catchments and from catchment characteristics. Different estimation methods exist. Regression or geostatistical methods performed on the low flow indices are the most common types of methods. Another less common method consists in regionalizing rainfall-runoff model parameters, from catchment characteristics or by spatial proximity, to estimate low flow indices from simulated hydrographs. Irstea developed GR2M-LoiEau, a conceptual monthly rainfall-runoff model, combined with a regionalized model of snow storage and melt. GR2M-LoiEau relies on only two parameters, which are regionalized and mapped throughout France. This model allows to cartography monthly reference low flow indices. The inputs data come from SAFRAN, the distributed mesoscale atmospheric analysis system, which provides daily solid and liquid precipitation and temperature data from everywhere in the French territory. To exploit fully these data and to estimate daily low flow indices, a new version of GR-LoiEau has been developed at a daily time step. The aim of this work is to develop and regionalize a GR-LoiEau model that can provide any daily, monthly or annual estimations of low flow indices, yet keeping only a few parameters, which is a major advantage to regionalize them. This work includes two parts. On the one hand, a daily conceptual rainfall-runoff model is developed with only three parameters in order to simulate daily and monthly low flow indices, mean annual runoff and seasonality. On the other hand, different regionalization methods, based on spatial proximity and similarity, are tested to estimate the model parameters and to simulate

  12. Diagnostic evaluation of distributed physically based model at the REW scale (THREW) using rainfall-runoff event analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, F.; Sivapalan, M.; Li, H.; Hu, H.

    2007-12-01

    The importance of diagnostic analysis of hydrological models is increasingly recognized by the scientific community (M. Sivapalan, et al., 2003; H. V. Gupta, et al., 2007). Model diagnosis refers to model structures and parameters being identified not only by statistical comparison of system state variables and outputs but also by process understanding in a specific watershed. Process understanding can be gained by the analysis of observational data and model results at the specific watershed as well as through regionalization. Although remote sensing technology can provide valuable data about the inputs, state variables, and outputs of the hydrological system, observational rainfall-runoff data still constitute the most accurate, reliable, direct, and thus a basic component of hydrology related database. One critical question in model diagnostic analysis is, therefore, what signature characteristic can we extract from rainfall and runoff data. To this date only a few studies have focused on this question, such as Merz et al. (2006) and Lana-Renault et al. (2007), still none of these studies related event analysis with model diagnosis in an explicit, rigorous, and systematic manner. Our work focuses on the identification of the dominant runoff generation mechanisms from event analysis of rainfall-runoff data, including correlation analysis and analysis of timing pattern. The correlation analysis involves the identification of the complex relationship among rainfall depth, intensity, runoff coefficient, and antecedent conditions, and the timing pattern analysis aims to identify the clustering pattern of runoff events in relation to the patterns of rainfall events. Our diagnostic analysis illustrates the changing pattern of runoff generation mechanisms in the DMIP2 test watersheds located in Oklahoma region, which is also well recognized by numerical simulations based on TsingHua Representative Elementary Watershed (THREW) model. The result suggests the usefulness of

  13. Sensitivity analysis of runoff modeling to statistical downscaling models in the western Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grouillet, Benjamin; Ruelland, Denis; Vaittinada Ayar, Pradeebane; Vrac, Mathieu

    2016-03-01

    This paper analyzes the sensitivity of a hydrological model to different methods to statistically downscale climate precipitation and temperature over four western Mediterranean basins illustrative of different hydro-meteorological situations. The comparison was conducted over a common 20-year period (1986-2005) to capture different climatic conditions in the basins. The daily GR4j conceptual model was used to simulate streamflow that was eventually evaluated at a 10-day time step. Cross-validation showed that this model is able to correctly reproduce runoff in both dry and wet years when high-resolution observed climate forcings are used as inputs. These simulations can thus be used as a benchmark to test the ability of different statistically downscaled data sets to reproduce various aspects of the hydrograph. Three different statistical downscaling models were tested: an analog method (ANALOG), a stochastic weather generator (SWG) and the cumulative distribution function-transform approach (CDFt). We used the models to downscale precipitation and temperature data from NCEP/NCAR reanalyses as well as outputs from two general circulation models (GCMs) (CNRM-CM5 and IPSL-CM5A-MR) over the reference period. We then analyzed the sensitivity of the hydrological model to the various downscaled data via five hydrological indicators representing the main features of the hydrograph. Our results confirm that using high-resolution downscaled climate values leads to a major improvement in runoff simulations in comparison to the use of low-resolution raw inputs from reanalyses or climate models. The results also demonstrate that the ANALOG and CDFt methods generally perform much better than SWG in reproducing mean seasonal streamflow, interannual runoff volumes as well as low/high flow distribution. More generally, our approach provides a guideline to help choose the appropriate statistical downscaling models to be used in climate change impact studies to minimize the range

  14. An analogue conceptual rainfall-runoff model for educational purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrnegger, Mathew; Riedl, Michael; Schulz, Karsten

    2016-04-01

    Conceptual rainfall-runoff models, in which runoff processes are modelled with a series of connected linear and non-linear reservoirs, remain widely applied tools in science and practice. Additionally, the concept is appreciated in teaching due to its somewhat simplicity in explaining and exploring hydrological processes of catchments. However, when a series of reservoirs are used, the model system becomes highly parametrized and complex and the traceability of the model results becomes more difficult to explain to an audience not accustomed to numerical modelling. Since normally the simulations are performed with a not visible digital code, the results are also not easily comprehensible. This contribution therefore presents a liquid analogue model, in which a conceptual rainfall-runoff model is reproduced by a physical model. This consists of different acrylic glass containers representing different storage components within a catchment, e.g. soil water or groundwater storage. The containers are equipped and connected with pipes, in which water movement represents different flow processes, e.g. surface runoff, percolation or base flow. Water from a storage container is pumped to the upper part of the model and represents effective rainfall input. The water then flows by gravity through the different pipes and storages. Valves are used for controlling the flows within the analogue model, comparable to the parameterization procedure in numerical models. Additionally, an inexpensive microcontroller-based board and sensors are used to measure storage water levels, with online visualization of the states as time series data, building a bridge between the analogue and digital world. The ability to physically witness the different flows and water levels in the storages makes the analogue model attractive to the audience. Hands-on experiments can be performed with students, in which different scenarios or catchment types can be simulated, not only with the analogue but

  15. Calibrating a Rainfall-Runoff and Routing Model for the Continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jankowfsky, S.; Li, S.; Assteerawatt, A.; Tillmanns, S.; Hilberts, A.

    2014-12-01

    Catastrophe risk models are widely used in the insurance industry to estimate the cost of risk. The models consist of hazard models linked to vulnerability and financial loss models. In flood risk models, the hazard model generates inundation maps. In order to develop country wide inundation maps for different return periods a rainfall-runoff and routing model is run using stochastic rainfall data. The simulated discharge and runoff is then input to a two dimensional inundation model, which produces the flood maps. In order to get realistic flood maps, the rainfall-runoff and routing models have to be calibrated with observed discharge data. The rainfall-runoff model applied here is a semi-distributed model based on the Topmodel (Beven and Kirkby, 1979) approach which includes additional snowmelt and evapotranspiration models. The routing model is based on the Muskingum-Cunge (Cunge, 1969) approach and includes the simulation of lakes and reservoirs using the linear reservoir approach. Both models were calibrated using the multiobjective NSGA-II (Deb et al., 2002) genetic algorithm with NLDAS forcing data and around 4500 USGS discharge gauges for the period from 1979-2013. Additional gauges having no data after 1979 were calibrated using CPC rainfall data. The model performed well in wetter regions and shows the difficulty of simulating areas with sinks such as karstic areas or dry areas. Beven, K., Kirkby, M., 1979. A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology. Hydrol. Sci. Bull. 24 (1), 43-69. Cunge, J.A., 1969. On the subject of a flood propagation computation method (Muskingum method), J. Hydr. Research, 7(2), 205-230. Deb, K., Pratap, A., Agarwal, S., Meyarivan, T., 2002. A fast and elitist multiobjective genetic algorithm: NSGA-II, IEEE Transactions on evolutionary computation, 6(2), 182-197.

  16. Snowmelt runoff modeling: Limitations and potential for mitigating water disputes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kult, Jonathan; Choi, Woonsup; Keuser, Anke

    2012-04-01

    SummaryConceptual snowmelt runoff models have proven useful for estimating discharge from remote mountain basins including those spanning the various ranges of the Himalaya. Such models can provide water resource managers with fairly accurate predictions of water availability for operational purposes (e.g. irrigation and hydropower). However, these models have limited ability to address characteristic components of water disputes such as diversions, storage and withholding. Contemporary disputes between India and Pakistan surrounding the snowmelt-derived water resources of the Upper Indus Basin highlight the need for improved water balance accounting methods. We present a research agenda focused on providing refined hydrological contributions to water dispute mitigation efforts.

  17. Robust Initial Wetness Condition Framework of an Event-Based Rainfall–Runoff Model Using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wooyeon Sunwoo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Runoff prediction in limited-data areas is vital for hydrological applications, such as the design of infrastructure and flood defenses, runoff forecasting, and water management. Rainfall–runoff models may be useful for simulation of runoff generation, particularly event-based models, which offer a practical modeling scheme because of their simplicity. However, there is a need to reduce the uncertainties related to the estimation of the initial wetness condition (IWC prior to a rainfall event. Soil moisture is one of the most important variables in rainfall–runoff modeling, and remotely sensed soil moisture is recognized as an effective way to improve the accuracy of runoff prediction. In this study, the IWC was evaluated based on remotely sensed soil moisture by using the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN method, which is one of the representative event-based models used for reducing the uncertainty of runoff prediction. Four proxy variables for the IWC were determined from the measurements of total rainfall depth (API5, ground-based soil moisture (SSMinsitu, remotely sensed surface soil moisture (SSM, and soil water index (SWI provided by the advanced scatterometer (ASCAT. To obtain a robust IWC framework, this study consists of two main parts: the validation of remotely sensed soil moisture, and the evaluation of runoff prediction using four proxy variables with a set of rainfall–runoff events in the East Asian monsoon region. The results showed an acceptable agreement between remotely sensed soil moisture (SSM and SWI and ground based soil moisture data (SSMinsitu. In the proxy variable analysis, the SWI indicated the optimal value among the proposed proxy variables. In the runoff prediction analysis considering various infiltration conditions, the SSM and SWI proxy variables significantly reduced the runoff prediction error as compared with API5 by 60% and 66%, respectively. Moreover, the proposed IWC framework with

  18. Towards a comprehensive physically-based rainfall-runoff model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Liu

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces TOPKAPI (TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and Integration, a new physically-based distributed rainfall-runoff model deriving from the integration in space of the kinematic wave model. The TOPKAPI approach transforms the rainfall-runoff and runoff routing processes into three ‘structurally-similar’ non-linear reservoir differential equations describing different hydrological and hydraulic processes. The geometry of the catchment is described by a lattice of cells over which the equations are integrated to lead to a cascade of non-linear reservoirs. The parameter values of the TOPKAPI model are shown to be scale independent and obtainable from digital elevation maps, soil maps and vegetation or land use maps in terms of slope, soil permeability, roughness and topology. It can be shown, under simplifying assumptions, that the non-linear reservoirs aggregate into three reservoir cascades at the basin scale representing the soil, the surface and the drainage network, following the topographic and geomorphologic elements of the catchment, with parameter values which can be estimated directly from the small scale ones. The main advantage of this approach lies in its capability of being applied at increasing spatial scales without losing model and parameter physical interpretation. The model is foreseen to be suitable for land-use and climate change impact assessment; for extreme flood analysis, given the possibility of its extension to ungauged catchments; and last but not least as a promising tool for use with General Circulation Models (GCMs. To demonstrate the quality of the comprehensive distributed/lumped TOPKAPI approach, this paper presents a case study application to the Upper Reno river basin with an area of 1051 km2 based on a DEM grid scale of 200 m. In addition, a real-world case of applying the TOPKAPI model to the Arno river basin, with an area of 8135 km2 and using a DEM grid scale of 1000 m, for the

  19. Investigation of the direct runoff generation mechanism for the analysis of the SCS-CN method applicability to a partial area experimental watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. X. Soulis

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN method is widely used for predicting direct runoff volume for a given rainfall event. The applicability of the SCS-CN method and the direct runoff generation mechanism were thoroughly analysed in a Mediterranean experimental watershed in Greece. The region is characterized by a Mediterranean semi-arid climate. A detailed land cover and soil survey using remote sensing and GIS techniques, showed that the watershed is dominated by coarse soils with high hydraulic conductivities, whereas a smaller part is covered with medium textured soils and impervious surfaces. The analysis indicated that the SCS-CN method fails to predict runoff for the storm events studied, and that there is a strong correlation between the CN values obtained from measured runoff and the rainfall depth. The hypothesis that this correlation could be attributed to the existence of an impermeable part in a very permeable watershed was examined in depth, by developing a numerical simulation water flow model for predicting surface runoff generated from each of the three soil types of the watershed. Numerical runs were performed using the HYDRUS-1D code. The results support the validity of this hypothesis for most of the events examined where the linear runoff formula provides better results than the SCS-CN method. The runoff coefficient of this formula can be taken equal to the percentage of the impervious area. However, the linear formula should be applied with caution in case of extreme events with very high rainfall intensities. In this case, the medium textured soils may significantly contribute to the total runoff and the linear formula may significantly underestimate the runoff produced.

  20. Application of remote sensing and geographical information system for generation of runoff curve number

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshram, S. Gajbhiye; Sharma, S. K.; Tignath, S.

    2017-07-01

    Watershed is an ideal unit for planning and management of land and water resources (Gajbhiye et al., IEEE international conference on advances in technology and engineering (ICATE), Bombay, vol 1, issue 9, pp 23-25, 2013a; Gajbhiye et al., Appl Water Sci 4(1):51-61, 2014a; Gajbhiye et al., J Geol Soc India (SCI-IF 0.596) 84(2):192-196, 2014b). This study aims to generate the curve number, using remote sensing and geographical information system (GIS) and the effect of slope on curve number values. The study was carried out in Kanhaiya Nala watershed located in Satna district of Madhya Pradesh. Soil map, Land Use/Land cover and slope map were generated in GIS Environment. The CN parameter values corresponding to various soil, land cover, and land management conditions were selected from Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) standard table. Curve number (CN) is an index developed by the NRCS, to represent the potential for storm water runoff within a drainage area. The CN for a drainage basin is estimated using a combination of land use, soil, and antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). In present study effect of slope on CN values were determined. The result showed that the CN unadjusted value are higher in comparison to CN adjusted with slope. Remote sensing and GIS is very reliable technique for the preparation of most of the input data required by the SCS curve number model.

  1. Model based historical runoff contribution from an Alpine glacier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoccatelli, Davide; Bonato, Paola; Carturan, Luca; Dalla Fontana, Giancarlo; De Blasi, Fabrizio; Borga, Marco

    2016-04-01

    The aim of this work is to analyze how climatic variability and glacier retreat impact the water balance of a small (8.5 km2) glaciarised catchment in the Eastern Italia Alps over a 30 year (1983-2013) period. The analysis is carried out by coupling local high quality data and a glacio-hydrological model able to simulate both the glacier and hydrology dynamics. Runoff contribution from glacier ice is related with trends in climatic variables and with glacier retreat. The area analyzed is the headwater of Noce Bianco river basin, lying in the Ortles-Cevedale group and including the La Mare glacier. During the study period the glacier area decreased from 4.7 km2 (50% basin area) to 3.47 km2 (40% basin area). In this area the following observations are available: 30 years of daily meteorological data at high elevation close to the catchment; three DTMs of the glacier, covering the entire period, which enable the calculation of the volume change and geodetic mass balance; direct glaciological mass balance observations over the period 2003-2013; discharge measurement at the catchment outlet over the period 2007-2013. The data availability and the significant shrinking of the glacier during the analyzed period make this catchment ideal for studying the hydrological impacts of glacier retreat. The semi-distributed conceptual model includes a snow and glacier accumulation and ablation module, based on temperature-radiation index and a glacier retreat model. The glacier retreat model allows to use the annual simulated glacier mass balance to update the glacier area (Huss et al., 2010). The model simulations are carried out from 1983 to 2013. We show that the model is able to capture adequately the measured daily discharge, the observed changes in glacier area and their spatial distribution. The contribution of glacier ice meltwater to annual runoff is below 10% in the first decade of simulation. This variable however showed a clear increasing trend, with peaks for single

  2. Extending a rainfall-runoff model for lowland catchments from lumped to semi-distributed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brauer, Claudia; Torfs, Paul; Teuling, Ryan; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2016-04-01

    The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS) is a parametric rainfall-runoff model for catchments with shallow groundwater (Brauer et al., 2014ab). WALRUS was developed using data and experience from two Dutch experimental catchments: the Hupsel Brook catchment (6.5 km2) and the Cabauw polder (0.5 km2). We identified key processes for runoff generation in lowland catchments, notably (1) groundwater-unsaturated zone coupling, (2) wetness-dependent flow routes, (3) groundwater-surface water feedbacks and (4) seepage and surface water supply, and accounted for these in the model structure. Up to now, WALRUS has been used in a lumped manner. However, water managers and researchers have expressed an interest in a semi-distributed version for application to larger catchments with varying forcing and catchment characteristics and to investigate the effect of groundwater flow within the catchment on modelled variables (e.g. groundwater depth). We combined WALRUS and a model for 2-dimensional groundwater flow into a simple modelling framework. WALRUS was already designed to cope with groundwater flow into or out of the model domain, because seepage and lateral groundwater flow are common in lowlands. In the semi-distributed version, we used this feature to couple different WALRUS elements (grid cells or subcatchments) to each other. Groundwater flow was computed using a digital elevation model, groundwater depths computed by WALRUS, soil transmissivity data and Darcy's law. Finally, we implemented a surface routing model including backwater effects, which are relevant in areas with little relief. With respect to the lumped version, the semi-distributed requires more data. Therefore, we investigated the added value of different data sources (forcing, elevation, soil, surface water) separately. We will present the rationale behind the semi-distributed model and show how the model structure compares to observations and and simulations without lateral transport. C.C. Brauer

  3. Transient runoff-runon model for a 1-D slope with random infiltrability: flow statistics and connectivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harel, Marie-Alice; Mouche, Emmanuel

    2015-04-01

    Despite the recent research focused on runoff pattern connectivity in hydrology, there is a surprising lack of theoretical knowledge regarding hillslope runoff generation and dynamics during a rainfall event. The transient problem is especially unaddressed. In this paper we propose a model based on queueing theory formalism for the infiltration-excess overland flow generation on soils with random infiltration properties. The influence of rainfall intensity and duration on runoff dynamics and connectivity is studied thanks to this model, numerical simulation and available steady-state results. We limit our study to a rainfall intensity that is a rectangular function of time. Exact solutions for the case of spatially random exponential distributions of soil infiltrability and rainfall intensity are developed. Simulations validate these analytical results and allow for the study the rising and recession limbs of the hydrograph for different rainfall characteristics. The case of a deterministic uniform rainfall rate and different infiltrability distributions is also discussed in light of runoff connectivity. We show that the connectivity framework contributes to a better understanding and prediction of runoff pattern formation and evolution with time. A fragmented overland flow is shown to have shorter charge and discharge periods after the onset and offset of rainfall compared to well connected runoff fields. These results demonstrate that the transient regime characteristics are linked with connectivity parameters, rainstorm properties and scale issues.

  4. Regionalization parameters of conceptual rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osuch, M.

    2003-04-01

    Main goal of this study was to develop techniques for the a priori estimation parameters of hydrological model. Conceptual hydrological model CLIRUN was applied to around 50 catchment in Poland. The size of catchments range from 1 000 to 100 000 km2. The model was calibrated for a number of gauged catchments with different catchment characteristics. The parameters of model were related to different climatic and physical catchment characteristics (topography, land use, vegetation and soil type). The relationships were tested by comparing observed and simulated runoff series from the gauged catchment that were not used in the calibration. The model performance using regional parameters was promising for most of the calibration and validation catchments.

  5. Calibration of Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Models Using Global Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Parameter optimization for the conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR model has always been the difficult problem in hydrology since watershed hydrological model is high-dimensional and nonlinear with multimodal and nonconvex response surface and its parameters are obviously related and complementary. In the research presented here, the shuffled complex evolution (SCE-UA global optimization method was used to calibrate the Xinanjiang (XAJ model. We defined the ideal data and applied the method to observed data. Our results show that, in the case of ideal data, the data length did not affect the parameter optimization for the hydrological model. If the objective function was selected appropriately, the proposed method found the true parameter values. In the case of observed data, we applied the technique to different lengths of data (1, 2, and 3 years and compared the results with ideal data. We found that errors in the data and model structure lead to significant uncertainties in the parameter optimization.

  6. Using the snowmelt runoff model to evaluate climate change effects and to compare basin runoff between New Mexico and Idaho.

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Snowmelt Runoff Model(SRM) has been developed and tested in small to large basins worldwide. SRM has been found to be very useful for understanding snowmelt processes as well as for simulating or forecasting snowmelt-derived water supplies. SRM is being used in New Mexico in a NSF-funded EPSCo...

  7. Predicting hydrological signatures in ungauged catchments using spatial interpolation, index model, and rainfall-runoff modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongqiang; Vaze, Jai; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Teng, Jin; Li, Ming

    2014-09-01

    Understanding a catchment's behaviours in terms of its underlying hydrological signatures is a fundamental task in surface water hydrology. It can help in water resource management, catchment classification, and prediction of runoff time series. This study investigated three approaches for predicting six hydrological signatures in southeastern Australia. These approaches were (1) spatial interpolation with three weighting schemes, (2) index model that estimates hydrological signatures using catchment characteristics, and (3) classical rainfall-runoff modelling. The six hydrological signatures fell into two categories: (1) long-term aggregated signatures - annual runoff coefficient, mean of log-transformed daily runoff, and zero flow ratio, and (2) signatures obtained from daily flow metrics - concavity index, seasonality ratio of runoff, and standard deviation of log-transformed daily flow. A total of 228 unregulated catchments were selected, with half the catchments randomly selected as gauged (or donors) for model building and the rest considered as ungauged (or receivers) to evaluate performance of the three approaches. The results showed that for two long-term aggregated signatures - the log-transformed daily runoff and runoff coefficient, the index model and rainfall-runoff modelling performed similarly, and were better than the spatial interpolation methods. For the zero flow ratio, the index model was best and the rainfall-runoff modelling performed worst. The other three signatures, derived from daily flow metrics and considered to be salient flow characteristics, were best predicted by the spatial interpolation methods of inverse distance weighting (IDW) and kriging. Comparison of flow duration curves predicted by the three approaches showed that the IDW method was best. The results found here provide guidelines for choosing the most appropriate approach for predicting hydrological behaviours at large scales.

  8. Sensitivity-Based Modeling of Evaluating Surface Runoff and Sediment Load using Digital and Analog Mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olotu Yahaya

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Analyses of runoff- sediment measurement and evaluation using automated and convectional runoff-meters was carried out at Meteorological and Hydrological Station of Auchi Polytechnic, Auchi using two runoff plots (ABCDa and EFGHm of area 2m 2 each, depth 0.26 m and driven into the soil to the depth of 0.13m. Runoff depths and intensities were measured from each of the positioned runoff plot. Automated runoff-meter has a measuring accuracy of ±0.001l/±0.025 mm and rainfall depth-intensity was measured using tipping-bucket rainguage during the period of 14-month of experimentation. Minimum and maximum rainfall depths of 1.2 and 190.3 mm correspond to measured runoff depths (MRo of 0.0 mm for both measurement approaches and 60.4 mm and 48.9 mm respectively. Automated runoffmeter provides precise, accurate and instantaneous result over the convectional measurement of surface runoff. Runoff measuring accuracy for automated runoff-meter from the plot (ABCDa produces R 2 = 0.99; while R 2 = 0.96 for manual evaluation in plot (EFGHm. WEPP and SWAT models were used to simulate the obtained hydrological variables from the applied measurement mechanisms. The outputs of sensitivity simulation analysis indicate that data from automated measuring systems gives a better modelling index and such could be used for running robust runoff-sediment predictive modelling technique under different reservoir sedimentation and water management scenarios.

  9. Runoff prediction using an integrated hybrid modelling scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remesan, Renji; Shamim, Muhammad Ali; Han, Dawei; Mathew, Jimson

    2009-06-01

    SummaryRainfall runoff is a very complicated process due to its nonlinear and multidimensional dynamics, and hence difficult to model. There are several options for a modeller to consider, for example: the type of input data to be used, the length of model calibration (training) data and whether or not the input data be treated as signals with different frequency bands so that they can be modelled separately. This paper describes a new hybrid modelling scheme to answer the above mentioned questions. The proposed methodology is based on a hybrid model integrating wavelet transformation, a modelling engine (Artificial Neural Network) and the Gamma Test. First, the Gamma Test is used to decide the required input data dimensions and its length. Second, the wavelet transformation decomposes the input signals into different frequency bands. Finally, a modelling engine (ANN in this study) is used to model the decomposed signals separately. The proposed scheme was tested using the Brue catchment, Southwest England, as a case study and has produced very positive results. The hybrid model outperforms all other models tested. This study has a wider implication in the hydrological modelling field since its general framework could be applied to other model combinations (e.g., model engine could be Support Vector Machines, neuro-fuzzy systems, or even a conceptual model. The signal decomposition could be carried out by Fourier transformation).

  10. Using diatoms, hydrochemical and stable isotope tracers to infer runoff generation processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Carreras, N.; Wetzel, C. E.; Frentress, J.; Hlúbiková, D.; Ector, L.; McDonnell, J. J.; Hoffmann, L.; Pfister, L.

    2012-04-01

    Imaginative techniques are needed to improve our understanding of runoff generation processes. In this context, the hydrological community calls to cut across disciplines looking for new and exciting advances in knowledge. In this study, hydrologists and ecologists have worked together to use not only hydrochemical and stable isotope tracers, but also diatoms to infer runoff generation processes. Diatoms, one of the most common and divers algal group, can be easily transported by flowing water due to their small size (~10-200 μm). They are present in most terrestrial habitats and their diversified species distributions are largely controlled by physico-geographical factors (e.g. light, temperature, pH and moisture). Thus, hydrological systems largely control diatom species community composition and distribution. This study was conducted in the schistose Weierbach catchment (0.45 km2, NW Luxembourg). Its runoff regime is characterised by seasonal variation and a delayed shallow groundwater component originating from a saprolite zone. The catchment was instrumented with piezometers, suction cups, an automatic streamwater sampler, a sequential rainfall sampler, and soil moisture and temperature sensors. Samples collected bi-weekly and during storm runoff events allowed the characterisation of the different end-members. Chemical and isotopic hydrograph separations of stream discharge were used to determine not only the geographic sources of water, but also the fractions of old and new water contributing to streamflow. Diatoms intra-storm variability was also analysed and samples of diatoms from various terrestrial and subaerial substrates (bryophytes, litter and leaves), as well as from aquatic habitats (epilithon, epipelon and drift samples) were regularly collected. Diatoms were then used to constrain assumptions and to confirm or reject the hypothesis of existing surface runoff during rainfall-runoff events and to document the intermittent character of hydrological

  11. Initiation processes for run-off generated debris flows in the Wenchuan earthquake area of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, W.; Dong, X. J.; Xu, Q.; Wang, G. H.; van Asch, T. W. J.; Hicher, P. Y.

    2016-01-01

    The frequency of huge debris flows greatly increased in the epicenter area of the Wenchuan earthquake. Field investigation revealed that runoff during rainstorm played a major role in generating debris flows on the loose deposits, left by coseismic debris avalanches. However, the mechanisms of these runoff-generated debris flows are not well understood due to the complexity of the initiation processes. To better understand the initiation mechanisms, we simulated and monitored the initiation process in laboratory flume test, with the help of a 3D laser scanner. We found that run-off incision caused an accumulation of material down slope. This failed as shallow slides when saturated, transforming the process into debris in a second stage. After this initial phase, the debris flow volume increased rapidly by a chain of subsequent cascading processes starting with collapses of the side walls, damming and breaching, leading to a rapid widening of the erosion channel. In terms of erosion amount, the subsequent mechanisms were much more important than the initial one. The damming and breaching were found to be the main reasons for the huge magnitude of the debris flows in the post-earthquake area. It was also found that the tested material was susceptible to excess pore pressure and liquefaction in undrained triaxial, which may be a reason for the fluidization in the flume tests.

  12. The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS): a lumped rainfall-runoff model for catchments with shallow groundwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brauer, C. C.; Teuling, A. J.; Torfs, P. J. J. F.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2014-10-01

    We present the Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS), a novel rainfall-runoff model to fill the gap between complex, spatially distributed models which are often used in lowland catchments and simple, parametric (conceptual) models which have mostly been developed for sloping catchments. WALRUS explicitly accounts for processes that are important in lowland areas, notably (1) groundwater-unsaturated zone coupling, (2) wetness-dependent flow routes, (3) groundwater-surface water feedbacks and (4) seepage and surface water supply. WALRUS consists of a coupled groundwater-vadose zone reservoir, a quickflow reservoir and a surface water reservoir. WALRUS is suitable for operational use because it is computationally efficient and numerically stable (achieved with a flexible time step approach). In the open source model code default relations have been implemented, leaving only four parameters which require calibration. For research purposes, these defaults can easily be changed. Numerical experiments show that the implemented feedbacks have the desired effect on the system variables.

  13. Runoff Modelling in Urban Storm Drainage by Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Michael R.; Brorsen, Michael; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

    1995-01-01

    network is used to compute flow or water level at selected points in the sewer system, and to forecast the flow from a small residential area. The main advantages of the neural network are the build-in self calibration procedure and high speed performance, but the neural network cannot be used to extract......A neural network is used to simulate folw and water levels in a sewer system. The calibration of th neural network is based on a few measured events and the network is validated against measureed events as well as flow simulated with the MOUSE model (Lindberg and Joergensen, 1986). The neural...... knowledge of the runoff process. The neural network was found to simulate 150 times faster than e.g. the MOUSE model....

  14. Effects of suburban development on runoff generation in the Croton River basin, New York, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Douglas; Vitvar, Tomas; McDonnell, Jeffrey; Hassett, James; Duncan, Jonathan; Kendall, Carol

    2005-09-01

    The effects of impervious area, septic leach-field effluent, and a riparian wetland on runoff generation were studied in three small (0.38-0.56 km 2) headwater catchments that represent a range of suburban development (high density residential, medium density residential, and undeveloped) within the Croton River basin, 70 km north of New York City. Precipitation, stream discharge, and groundwater levels were monitored at 10-30 min intervals for 1 year, and stream water and groundwater samples were collected biweekly for δ 18O, NO 3-, and SO 42- analysis for more than 2 years during an overlapping period in 2000-2002. Data from 27 storms confirmed that peak magnitudes increased and recession time decreased with increasing development, but lags in peak arrival and peak discharge/mean discharge were greatest in the medium density residential catchment, which contains a wetland in which storm runoff is retained before entering the stream. Baseflow during a dry period from Aug. 2001-Feb. 2002 was greatest in the high-density residential catchment, presumably from the discharge of septic effluent through the shallow groundwater system and into the stream. In contrast, moderate flows during a wet period from Mar.-Aug. 2002 were greatest in the undeveloped catchment, possibly as a result of greater subsurface storage or greater hydraulic conductivity at this site. The mean residence time of baseflow was about 30 weeks at all three catchments, indicating that human influence was insufficient to greatly affect the groundwater recharge and discharge properties that determine catchment residence time. These results suggest that while suburban development and its associated impervious surfaces and storm drains accelerate the transport of storm runoff into streams, the combined effects of remnant natural landscape features such as wetlands and human alterations such as deep groundwater supply and septic systems can change the expected effects of human development on storm

  15. Characteristics of runoff and sediment generation of forest vegetation on a hill slope by use of artificial rainfall apparatus

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xiang; NIU Jian-zhi; LI Jiao; XIE Bao-yuan; HAN Yi-ni; TAN Jing-ping; ZHANG Ying-hu

    2012-01-01

    We studied the impact of forest vegetation on soil erosion,surface runoff,and sediment generation by using field simulated rainfall apparatus.We measured runoff and sediment generation of five 4.5 × 2.1m runoff plots (a bare soil as a control; two Pinus tabulaeformis forest plots and two Platycladus orientalis forest with row spacing of 1m × 1m and 1.5 m × 1.5 m,respectively) in Beijing Jiu Feng National Forest Park under three rainfall intensities (0.42,0.83,1.26 mm per minute).Forest vegetation significantly reduced soil erosion and sediment yield.Mean total runoff volume in the four tree stand plots was 93% of that in the control plot,demonstrating the limited effectiveness of forest vegetation in runoff control.With increasing rainfall intensity,runoff reduction in forest plots declined from 28.32% to 2.1%.Similar trends in runoff coefficient and the relationship between runoffvolume and rainfall duration was observed.Mean total sediment yield and mean sediment yield reduction rate under different treatments was 55.05% and 43.17% of those in the bare soil control plot,respectively.Rainfall intensity played an important role in runoffand sediment generation processes,and had a greater impact on runoff than on soil erosion and sediment generation.When considering several factors in runoff and sediment transport processes,the P.tabulaeform plot with row spacing at 1 × 1 m had a greater effect on soil and water conservation than did other forested plots.

  16. Comparison of rainfall-runoff models for flood forecasting. Part 2: Calibration and evaluation of models

    OpenAIRE

    Bell, V. A.; Carrington, D.S.; Moore, R J

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of the project “Comparison of Rainfall-Runoff Models for Flood Forecasting” is to provide guidance to the Environment Agency on the choice of rainfall-runoff model for use in different catchments for flood forecasting purposes. A literature review of models presented in the Part 1 Report recognised that whilst there is a plethora of “brand-name” models there is much similarity between many of them. A rather small set of model functions is common to many models and they differ in t...

  17. Possibilistic uncertainty analysis of a conceptual model of snowmelt runoff

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. Jacquin

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available This study presents the analysis of predictive uncertainty of a conceptual type snowmelt runoff model. The method applied uses possibilistic rather than probabilistic calculus for the evaluation of predictive uncertainty. Possibility theory is an information theory meant to model uncertainties caused by imprecise or incomplete knowledge about a real system rather than by randomness. A snow dominated catchment in the Chilean Andes is used as case study. Predictive uncertainty arising from parameter uncertainties of the watershed model is assessed. Model performance is evaluated according to several criteria, in order to define the possibility distribution of the model representations. The likelihood of the simulated glacier mass balance and snow cover are used for further assessing model credibility. Possibility distributions of the discharge estimates and prediction uncertainty bounds are subsequently derived. The results of the study indicate that the use of additional information allows a reduction of predictive uncertainty. In particular, the assessment of the simulated glacier mass balance and snow cover helps to reduce the width of the uncertainty bounds without a significant increment in the number of unbounded observations.

  18. Enabling high-quality observations of surface imperviousness for water runoff modelling from unmanned aerial vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokarczyk, Piotr; Leitao, Joao Paulo; Rieckermann, Jörg; Schindler, Konrad; Blumensaat, Frank

    2015-04-01

    Modelling rainfall-runoff in urban areas is increasingly applied to support flood risk assessment particularly against the background of a changing climate and an increasing urbanization. These models typically rely on high-quality data for rainfall and surface characteristics of the area. While recent research in urban drainage has been focusing on providing spatially detailed rainfall data, the technological advances in remote sensing that ease the acquisition of detailed land-use information are less prominently discussed within the community. The relevance of such methods increase as in many parts of the globe, accurate land-use information is generally lacking, because detailed image data is unavailable. Modern unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) allow acquiring high-resolution images on a local level at comparably lower cost, performing on-demand repetitive measurements, and obtaining a degree of detail tailored for the purpose of the study. In this study, we investigate for the first time the possibility to derive high-resolution imperviousness maps for urban areas from UAV imagery and to use this information as input for urban drainage models. To do so, an automatic processing pipeline with a modern classification method is tested and applied in a state-of-the-art urban drainage modelling exercise. In a real-life case study in the area of Lucerne, Switzerland, we compare imperviousness maps generated from a consumer micro-UAV and standard large-format aerial images acquired by the Swiss national mapping agency (swisstopo). After assessing their correctness, we perform an end-to-end comparison, in which they are used as an input for an urban drainage model. Then, we evaluate the influence which different image data sources and their processing methods have on hydrological and hydraulic model performance. We analyze the surface runoff of the 307 individual sub-catchments regarding relevant attributes, such as peak runoff and volume. Finally, we evaluate the model

  19. High-quality observation of surface imperviousness for urban runoff modelling using UAV imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Tokarczyk

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Modelling rainfall–runoff in urban areas is increasingly applied to support flood risk assessment particularly against the background of a changing climate and an increasing urbanization. These models typically rely on high-quality data for rainfall and surface characteristics of the area. While recent research in urban drainage has been focusing on providing spatially detailed rainfall data, the technological advances in remote sensing that ease the acquisition of detailed land-use information are less prominently discussed within the community. The relevance of such methods increase as in many parts of the globe, accurate land-use information is generally lacking, because detailed image data is unavailable. Modern unmanned air vehicles (UAVs allow acquiring high-resolution images on a local level at comparably lower cost, performing on-demand repetitive measurements, and obtaining a degree of detail tailored for the purpose of the study. In this study, we investigate for the first time the possibility to derive high-resolution imperviousness maps for urban areas from UAV imagery and to use this information as input for urban drainage models. To do so, an automatic processing pipeline with a modern classification method is tested and applied in a state-of-the-art urban drainage modelling exercise. In a real-life case study in the area of Lucerne, Switzerland, we compare imperviousness maps generated from a consumer micro-UAV and standard large-format aerial images acquired by the Swiss national mapping agency (swisstopo. After assessing their correctness, we perform an end-to-end comparison, in which they are used as an input for an urban drainage model. Then, we evaluate the influence which different image data sources and their processing methods have on hydrological and hydraulic model performance. We analyze the surface runoff of the 307 individual subcatchments regarding relevant attributes, such as peak runoff and volume. Finally, we

  20. Markov-switching model for nonstationary runoff conditioned on El Nino information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gelati, Emiliano; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2010-01-01

    of the climatic input. MARX allows stochastic modeling of nonstationary runoff, as runoff anomalies are described by a mixture of autoregressive models with exogenous input, each one corresponding to a climate state. We apply MARX to inflow time series of the Daule Peripa reservoir (Ecuador). El Nino Southern...

  1. Possibilistic uncertainty analysis of a conceptual model of snowmelt runoff

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. Jacquin

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available This study presents the analysis of predictive uncertainty of a conceptual type snowmelt runoff model. The method applied uses possibilistic rather than probabilistic calculus for the evaluation of predictive uncertainty. Possibility theory is an information theory meant to model uncertainties caused by imprecise or incomplete knowledge about a real system rather than by randomness. A snow dominated catchment in the Chilean Andes is used as case study. Predictive uncertainty arising from parameter uncertainties of the watershed model is assessed. Model performance is evaluated according to several criteria, in order to define the possibility distribution of the parameter vector. The plausibility of the simulated glacier mass balance and snow cover are used for further constraining the model representations. Possibility distributions of the discharge estimates and prediction uncertainty bounds are subsequently derived. The results of the study indicate that the use of additional information allows a reduction of predictive uncertainty. In particular, the assessment of the simulated glacier mass balance and snow cover helps to reduce the width of the uncertainty bounds without a significant increment in the number of unbounded observations.

  2. Land use change effects on runoff generation in a humid tropical montane cloud forest region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. E. Muñoz-Villers

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available While tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF provide critical hydrological services to downstream regions throughout much of the humid tropics, catchment hydrology and impacts associated with forest conversion in these ecosystems remain poorly understood. Here, we compare the annual, seasonal and event-scale streamflow patterns and runoff generation processes of three neighbouring headwater catchments in central Veracruz (eastern Mexico with similar pedological and geological characteristics, but different land cover: old-growth TMCF (MAT, 20 yr-old naturally regenerating TMCF (SEC and a heavily grazed pasture (PAS. We used a 2 yr record of high resolution rainfall and stream flow data (2008–2010 in combination with stable isotope and chemical tracer data collected for a series of storms during a 6-week period of increasing antecedent wetness (wetting-up cycle. Our results showed that annual and seasonal streamflow patterns of the MAT and SEC were similar. In contrast, the PAS showed a 10% higher mean annual streamflow, most likely because of a lower rainfall interception. During the wetting-up cycle, storm runoff ratios increased at all three catchments (from 11 to 54% for the MAT, 7 to 52% for the SEC and 3 to 59% for the PAS. With the increasing antecedent wetness, hydrograph separation analysis showed progressive increases of pre-event water contributions to total stormflow (from 35 to 99% in the MAT, 26 to 92% in the SEC and 64 to 97% in the PAS. At all three sites, rainfall-runoff responses were dominated by subsurface flow generation processes for the majority of storms. However, for the largest and most intense storm (typically occurring once every 2 yr, sampled under wet antecedent conditions, the event water contribution in the PAS (34% on average was much higher than in the forests (5% on average, indicating that rainfall infiltration capacity of the PAS was exceeded. This result suggests that despite the high permeability of the

  3. A subsurface runoff parameterization with water storage and recharge based on the Boussinesq-Storage Equation for a Land Surface Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TIAN; Xiangjun; XIE; Zhenghui; ZHANG; Shenglei

    2006-01-01

    Subsurface runoff in a land surface model is usually parameterized as a single-valued function of total storage in a basin aquifer reservoir. This kind of parameterization is often single-valued function of storage-discharge under a steady or "quasi-steady" state, which cannot represent the influence of aquifer recharge on subsurface runoff generation. In this paper, a new subsurface runoff parameterization with water storage and recharge based on the Boussinesq-storage equation is developed. This model is validated by a subsurface flow separation algorithm for an example river basin, which shows that the new model can simulate the subsurface flow reasonably.

  4. Subgrid Parameterization of the Soil Moisture Storage Capacity for a Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weijian Guo

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Spatial variability plays an important role in nonlinear hydrologic processes. Due to the limitation of computational efficiency and data resolution, subgrid variability is usually assumed to be uniform for most grid-based rainfall-runoff models, which leads to the scale-dependence of model performances. In this paper, the scale effect on the Grid-Xinanjiang model was examined. The bias of the estimation of precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture at the different grid scales, along with the scale-dependence of the effective parameters, highlights the importance of well representing the subgrid variability. This paper presents a subgrid parameterization method to incorporate the subgrid variability of the soil storage capacity, which is a key variable that controls runoff generation and partitioning in the Grid-Xinanjiang model. In light of the similar spatial pattern and physical basis, the soil storage capacity is correlated with the topographic index, whose spatial distribution can more readily be measured. A beta distribution is introduced to represent the spatial distribution of the soil storage capacity within the grid. The results derived from the Yanduhe Basin show that the proposed subgrid parameterization method can effectively correct the watershed soil storage capacity curve. Compared to the original Grid-Xinanjiang model, the model performances are quite consistent at the different grid scales when the subgrid variability is incorporated. This subgrid parameterization method reduces the recalibration necessity when the Digital Elevation Model (DEM resolution is changed. Moreover, it improves the potential for the application of the distributed model in the ungauged basin.

  5. An application of artificial intelligence for rainfall–runoff modeling

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Ali Aytek; M Asce; Murat Alp

    2008-04-01

    This study proposes an application of two techniques of artificial intelligence (AI) for rainfall–runoff modeling: the artificial neural networks (ANN) and the evolutionary computation (EC). Two different ANN techniques, the feed forward back propagation (FFBP) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) methods are compared with one EC method, Gene Expression Programming (GEP) which is a new evolutionary algorithm that evolves computer programs. The daily hydrometeorological data of three rainfall stations and one streamflow station for Juniata River Basin in Pennsylvania state of USA are taken into consideration in the model development. Statistical parameters such as average, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, skewness, minimum and maximum values, as well as criteria such as mean square error (MSE) and determination coefficient (2) are used to measure the performance of the models. The results indicate that the proposed genetic programming (GP) formulation performs quite well compared to results obtained by ANNs and is quite practical for use. It is concluded from the results that GEP can be proposed as an alternative to ANN models.

  6. The concept of runoff elements as a basis of scale-free approach to runoff formation modelling - the experience of the model "Hydrograph" development and implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinogradov, Yu. B.; Semenova, O.

    2009-04-01

    The concept of runoff elements used in proposed model as a base for calculating routine describing slope runoff transformation gives the opportunity to avoid the scale problem in hydrological modelling which, to our opinion, mainly refers to mathematical approaches (the framework of Navier-Stokes equations) widely used for description of water movement within the basin. River basin is a system of elementary watersheds of surface and underground ones of various layers. The topography of river basin surface conditionally can be presented by a system of the inclined surfaces each of them being an elementary slope. Within a surface elementary slope water flowing down is realized over non-channel rill system and within the underground elementary slope - over the underground drainage system. The elementary slopes and watersheds in their turn consist of a system of runoff elements - limited by micro-divides areas of the surface and underground elementary slopes and watersheds exposed with their open part to the slope non-channel or underground drainage system. Runoff elements are not the kind of idealization but they can be easily identified with the natural formations. Surface runoff elements depending on natural conditions but mainly on inclination can be measured from shares and ones up to tens of thousand square meters. Underground runoff elements can be much greater. For each runoff element there is a balance ratio (1) There is the unique nonlinear relation between W and outflow dischargeR: (2) Then, the corresponding equation of the outflow hydrograph from runoff elements of a given layer is the following: (3) Here R0 is the initial value of runoff R and S is the runoff rate (m3s-1); Δt is the computational time interval (sec) during which S is constant; a,b - hydraulic coefficients (which determine the conditions of outflow) with dimension m-3 and m3 s-1. In the general case, we assume that the number of runoff elements is proportional to the basin area F (m2

  7. Rainfall-runoff modeling for storm events in a coastal forest catchment using neural networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Yi; HE Bin

    2008-01-01

    The process of transformation of rainfall into runoff over a catchment is very complex and highly nonlinear and exhibits both temporal and spatial variabilities. In this article, a rainfall-runoff model using the artificial neural networks (ANN) is proposed for simulating the runoff in storm events. The study uses the data from a coastal forest catchmentlocated in Seto Inland Sea, Japan. This article studies the accuracy of the short-term rainfall forecast obtained by ANN time-series analysis techniques and using antecedent rainfall depths and stream flow as the input information. The verification results from the proposed model indicate that the approach of ANN rainfall-runoff model presented in this paper shows a reasonable agreement in rainfall-runoff modeling with high accuracy.

  8. High-quality observation of surface imperviousness for urban runoff modelling using UAV imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokarczyk, P.; Leitao, J. P.; Rieckermann, J.; Schindler, K.; Blumensaat, F.

    2015-10-01

    Modelling rainfall-runoff in urban areas is increasingly applied to support flood risk assessment, particularly against the background of a changing climate and an increasing urbanization. These models typically rely on high-quality data for rainfall and surface characteristics of the catchment area as model input. While recent research in urban drainage has been focusing on providing spatially detailed rainfall data, the technological advances in remote sensing that ease the acquisition of detailed land-use information are less prominently discussed within the community. The relevance of such methods increases as in many parts of the globe, accurate land-use information is generally lacking, because detailed image data are often unavailable. Modern unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) allow one to acquire high-resolution images on a local level at comparably lower cost, performing on-demand repetitive measurements and obtaining a degree of detail tailored for the purpose of the study. In this study, we investigate for the first time the possibility of deriving high-resolution imperviousness maps for urban areas from UAV imagery and of using this information as input for urban drainage models. To do so, an automatic processing pipeline with a modern classification method is proposed and evaluated in a state-of-the-art urban drainage modelling exercise. In a real-life case study (Lucerne, Switzerland), we compare imperviousness maps generated using a fixed-wing consumer micro-UAV and standard large-format aerial images acquired by the Swiss national mapping agency (swisstopo). After assessing their overall accuracy, we perform an end-to-end comparison, in which they are used as an input for an urban drainage model. Then, we evaluate the influence which different image data sources and their processing methods have on hydrological and hydraulic model performance. We analyse the surface runoff of the 307 individual subcatchments regarding relevant attributes, such as peak

  9. A model for simulating the response of runoff from the mountainous watersheds of inland river basins in the arid area of northwest China to climatic changes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    康尔泗; 程国栋; 蓝永超; 金会军

    1999-01-01

    A model for simulating the response of monthly runoff from the mountainous watersheds to climatic changes is developed.The model is based on the modifications to the HBV runoff model, and therefore represents the characteristics and runoff generation processes of inland river basins in the arid area of northwest China. Taking the mountainous watershed of an inland river, the Heihe River originating from the Qilian Mountains and running through the Hexi Corridor as an example, the monthly runoff changes under different climate scenarios are simulated. The simulation indicates that, during the years from 1994 to 2030, if the annual mean air temperature increases by 0.5℃, and precipitation keeps unchanged, then the runoff of May and October will increase because of the increase of the snow melt runoff, but the runoff of July and August will decrease to some extent because of the increase of evaporation, and as a result, the annual runoff will decrease by 4%. If the precipitation still keeps unchanged, an

  10. Hybrid wavelet-support vector machine approach for modelling rainfall-runoff process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komasi, Mehdi; Sharghi, Soroush

    2016-01-01

    Because of the importance of water resources management, the need for accurate modeling of the rainfall-runoff process has rapidly grown in the past decades. Recently, the support vector machine (SVM) approach has been used by hydrologists for rainfall-runoff modeling and the other fields of hydrology. Similar to the other artificial intelligence models, such as artificial neural network (ANN) and adaptive neural fuzzy inference system, the SVM model is based on the autoregressive properties. In this paper, the wavelet analysis was linked to the SVM model concept for modeling the rainfall-runoff process of Aghchai and Eel River watersheds. In this way, the main time series of two variables, rainfall and runoff, were decomposed to multiple frequent time series by wavelet theory; then, these time series were imposed as input data on the SVM model in order to predict the runoff discharge one day ahead. The obtained results show that the wavelet SVM model can predict both short- and long-term runoff discharges by considering the seasonality effects. Also, the proposed hybrid model is relatively more appropriate than classical autoregressive ones such as ANN and SVM because it uses the multi-scale time series of rainfall and runoff data in the modeling process.

  11. Stormwater runoff - modeling impacts of urbanization and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Blair, Anne; Sanger, Denise; Holland, Frderick; White, David; Vandiver, Lisa; White, Susan

    2010-01-01

    Development pressure throughout the coastal areas of the United States continues to build, particularly in the southeast (Allen and Lu 2003, Crossett et al. 2004). It is well known that development alters watershed hydrology: as land becomes covered with surfaces impervious to rain, water is redirected from groundwater recharge and evapotranspiration to stormwater runoff, and as the area of impervious cover increases, so does the volume and rate of runoff (Schueler 1994, Corbett et al. 1997)....

  12. Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davie, J.C.S.; Falloon, P.D.; Kahana, R.; Dankers, R.; Betts, R.; Portmann, F.T.; Wisser, D.; Clark, D.B.; Ito, A.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Fekete, B.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.; Liu, X.; Tang, Q.; Hagemann, S.; Stacke, T.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Gosling, S.N.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Arnell, N.

    2013-01-01

    Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathw

  13. Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davie, J. C. S.; Falloon, P. D.; Kahana, R.; Dankers, R.; Betts, R.; Portmann, F. T.; Wisser, D.; Clark, D. B.; Ito, A.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Fekete, B.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.; Liu, X.; Tang, Q.; Hagemann, S.; Stacke, T.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Gosling, S. N.; Franssen, W.; Arnell, N.

    2013-01-01

    Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathwa

  14. Scale effects in Hortonian surface runoff on agricultural slopes in West Africa: Field data and models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giesen, van de N.; Stomph, T.J.; Ajayi, A.E.; Bagayoko, F.

    2011-01-01

    This article provides an overview of both experimental and modeling research carried out over the past 15 years by the authors addressing scaling effects in Hortonian surface runoff. Hortonian surface runoff occurs when rainfall intensity exceeds infiltration capacity of the soil. At three sites in

  15. Neural network emulation of a rainfall-runoff model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. Abrahart

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available The potential of an artificial neural network to perform simple non-linear hydrological transformations is examined. Four neural network models were developed to emulate different facets of a recognised non-linear hydrological transformation equation that possessed a small number of variables and contained no temporal component. The modeling process was based on a set of uniform random distributions. The cloning operation facilitated a direct comparison with the exact equation-based relationship. It also provided broader information about the power of a neural network to emulate existing equations and model non-linear relationships. Several comparisons with least squares multiple linear regression were performed. The first experiment involved a direct emulation of the Xinanjiang Rainfall-Runoff Model. The next two experiments were designed to assess the competencies of two neural solutions that were developed on a reduced number of inputs. This involved the omission and conflation of previous inputs. The final experiment used derived variables to model intrinsic but otherwise concealed internal relationships that are of hydrological interest. Two recent studies have suggested that neural solutions offer no worthwhile improvements in comparison to traditional weighted linear transfer functions for capturing the non-linear nature of hydrological relationships. Yet such fundamental properties are intrinsic aspects of catchment processes that cannot be excluded or ignored. The results from the four experiments that are reported in this paper are used to challenge the interpretations from these two earlier studies and thus further the debate with regards to the appropriateness of neural networks for hydrological modelling.

  16. Surface Rainfall-Runoff Analysis Using NRCS Curve Number and Semi-Distributed Model in Urban Watershed of Jeju Island, Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, S. K.; Kar, K. K.; Lee, J. H.

    2015-12-01

    Rainfall-runoff modeling is a basic tool for assessing hydrological processes where natural features (geology and geography) play a pivotal role. Due to global warming, the trends of torrential rainfall and typhoon events have been found to increase spontaneously in Jeju Island of Korea. As such, the island has been shown distinctive hydrologic characteristics. The study therefore, attempts to analyze the diversified rainfall-runoff characteristics of Jeju Island during extreme hydrologic events. The study domain covers mostly the urban areas of island and the most prominent Hancheon Stream which restrains most of its overland runoff during rainfall. For watershed delineation, 30-m resolution's digital elevation model (DEM) generated from contours and 50 years' (1964-2013) historical rainfall data from the Korea meteorological administration (KMA) were used. Furthermore, geo-spatial data collected from the Korean society of agriculture engineers (KSAE) has been used for soil texture and land use classification. Some identical studies implied to predict semi-distributed (e.g. SWAT and WMS) watershed model runoff in the island. However, the significance of this study is that it considers a GIS semi-distributed model to imply NRCS curve number technique and predict accurate results for unique runoff characteristics, by considering high catchment slope. Rainfall data from 2009 to 2013 has been used as baseline information to estimate annual runoff variations, which has been used in the spatial and statistical analyses. The study infers that the simulated runoff percentages varied from 18% to 44%, accounting for the temporal fluctuations of rainfall. Afterwards, to assess the ten year interval relationship between rainfall-runoff, the study uses historical rainfall data of Jeju-si meteorological station and four rainfall station. Lastly, the ongoing rainfall-runoff analysis will be concluded by comparing the runoff result with SWAT model result.Keywords: NRCS curve

  17. Monitoring and Modelling Glacier Melt and Runoff on Juncal Norte Glacier, Aconcagua River Basin, Central Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellicciotti, F.; Helbing, J. F.; Araos, J.; Favier, V.; Rivera, A.; Corripio, J.; Sicart, J. M.

    2006-12-01

    Results from a recent glacio-meteorological experiment on the Juncal Norte glacier, in central Chile, are presented. Melt water is a crucial resource in the Central Andes, as it provides drinking water, water for agriculture and for industrial uses. There is also increasing competition for water use and allocation, as water demands from mining and industry are rising. Assessing water availability in this region and its relation with climatic variations is therefore crucial. The Dry Central Andes are characterised by a climatic setting different from that of the Alps and the subtropical Andes of Bolivia and Peru. Summers are very dry and stable, with precipitation close to zero and low relative humidity. Solar radiation is very intense, and plays a key role in the energy balance of snow covers and glaciers. The main aim of this study is to investigate the glacier-climate interaction in this area, with particular attention devoted to advanced modelling techniques for the spatial redistribution of meteorological variables, in order to gain an accurate picture of the ablation processes typical of these latitudes. During the ablation season 2005/2006, an extensive field campaign was conducted on the Juncal Norte glacier, aimed at monitoring the melt and runoff generation processes on this remote glacier in the dry Andes. Melt rates, runoff at the snout, meteorological variables over and near the glacier, GPS data and glacier topography were recorded over the entire ablation season. Using this extensive and accurate data set, the spatial and temporal variability of the meteorological variables that drive the melt process on the glacier is investigated, together with the process of runoff generation. An energy balance model is used to simulate melt across the glacier, and special attention is devoted to the modelling of the solar radiation energy flux. The components of the energy balance are compared with those of Alpine basins. The validity of parameterisations of the

  18. Modelling runoff at the plot scale taking into account rainfall partitioning by vegetation: application to stemflow of banana (Musa spp. plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y.-M. Cabidoche

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall partitioning by vegetation modifies the intensity of rainwater reaching the ground, which affects runoff generation. Incident rainfall is intercepted by the plant canopy and then redistributed into throughfall and stemflow. Rainfall intensities at the soil surface are therefore not spatially uniform, generating local variations of runoff production that are disregarded in runoff models. The aim of this paper was to model runoff at the plot scale, accounting for rainfall partitioning by vegetation in the case of plants concentrating rainwater at the plant foot and promoting stemflow. We developed a lumped modelling approach, including a stemflow function that divided the plot into two compartments: one compartment including stemflow and the relative water pathways and one compartment for the rest of the plot. This stemflow function was coupled with a production function and a transfer function to simulate a flood hydrograph using the MHYDAS model. Calibrated parameters were a "stemflow coefficient", which compartmented the plot; the saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks, which controls infiltration and runoff; and the two parameters of the diffusive wave equation. We tested our model on a banana plot of 3000 m2 on permeable Andosol (mean Ks=75 mm h−1 under tropical rainfalls, in Guadeloupe (FWI. Runoff simulations without and with the stemflow function were performed and compared to 18 flood events from 10 to 130 mm rainfall depth. Modelling results showed that the stemflow function improved the calibration of hydrographs according to the error criteria on volume and on peakflow and to the Nash and Sutcliffe coefficient. This was particularly the case for low flows observed during residual rainfall, for which the stemflow function allowed runoff to be simulated for rainfall intensities lower than the Ks measured at the soil surface. This approach also allowed us to take into account the experimental data, without needing to calibrate

  19. Two Conceptual Approaches For The Continuous Time Computation of Infiltration and Surface Runoff In Spatially Distributed Rainfall-runoff Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brath, A.; Crosta, G.; Frattini, P.; Montanari, A.; Moretti, G.

    Distributed rainfall-runoff models are often applied for performing hydrological sim- ulations extended to the time span of single flood events, in order to limit the compu- tational effort. The increasing availability of computing powers makes now possible to move towards standard techniques for flood hydrograph estimation based upon the application of continuous simulation distributed models. These allow to perform hy- drological analyses that would be not possible by using lumped models, such as, for instance, the assessment of the effects on river discharges of spatially distributed land- use changes. In order to perform spatially-distributed and continuous time hydrologi- cal simulations, one has to represent the infiltration process at the local scale by using schemes which are capable of simulating the soil water content redistribution during the interstorm periods. To this end, the present study aims at presenting an application of two conceptual schemes, which have been derived by modifying the event-based Green-Ampt and Curve Number infiltration models. The proposed approaches have been embedded in a spatially distributed, DEM-based, rainfall-runoff model. An ap- plication of the model is presented, that refers to a river basin located in Northern Italy.

  20. A geomorphology-based ANFIS model for multi-station modeling of rainfall-runoff process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nourani, Vahid; Komasi, Mehdi

    2013-05-01

    This paper demonstrates the potential use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques for predicting daily runoff at multiple gauging stations. Uncertainty and complexity of the rainfall-runoff process due to its variability in space and time in one hand and lack of historical data on the other hand, cause difficulties in the spatiotemporal modeling of the process. In this paper, an Integrated Geomorphological Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (IGANFIS) model conjugated with C-means clustering algorithm was used for rainfall-runoff modeling at multiple stations of the Eel River watershed, California. The proposed model could be used for predicting runoff in the stations with lack of data or any sub-basin within the watershed because of employing the spatial and temporal variables of the sub-basins as the model inputs. This ability of the integrated model for spatiotemporal modeling of the process was examined through the cross validation technique for a station. In this way, different ANFIS structures were trained using Sugeno algorithm in order to estimate daily discharge values at different stations. In order to improve the model efficiency, the input data were then classified into some clusters by the means of fuzzy C-means (FCMs) method. The goodness-of-fit measures support the gainful use of the IGANFIS and FCM methods in spatiotemporal modeling of hydrological processes.

  1. [Local sensitivity and its stationarity analysis for urban rainfall runoff modelling].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jie; Huang, Jin-Liang; Du, Peng-Fei; Tu, Zhen-Shun; Li, Qing-Sheng

    2010-09-01

    Sensitivity analysis of urban-runoff simulation is a crucial procedure for parameter identification and uncertainty analysis. Local sensitivity analysis using Morris screening method was carried out for urban rainfall runoff modelling based on Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The results showed that Area, % Imperv and Dstore-Imperv are the most sensitive parameters for both total runoff volume and peak flow. Concerning total runoff volume, the sensitive indices of Area, % Imperv and Dstore-Imperv were 0.46-1.0, 0.61-1.0, -0.050(-) - 5.9, respectively; while with respect to peak runoff, they were 0.48-0.89, 0.59-0.83, 0(-) -9.6, respectively. In comparison, the most sensitive indices (Morris) for all parameters with regard to total runoff volume and peak flow appeared in the rainfall event with least rainfall; and less sensitive indices happened in the rainfall events with heavier rainfall. Furthermore, there is considerable variability in sensitive indices for each rainfall event. % Zero-Imperv's coefficient variations have the largest values among all parameters for total runoff volume and peak flow, namely 221.24% and 228.10%. On the contrary, the coefficient variations of conductivity among all parameters for both total runoff volume and peak flow are the smallest, namely 0.

  2. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Mei; Wang, Dong; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian; Singh, Vijay P

    2016-07-01

    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall-runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ''wet years and dry years predictability barrier,'' to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff.

  3. An Emotional ANN (EANN) approach to modeling rainfall-runoff process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nourani, Vahid

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents the first hydrological implementation of Emotional Artificial Neural Network (EANN), as a new generation of Artificial Intelligence-based models for daily rainfall-runoff (r-r) modeling of the watersheds. Inspired by neurophysiological form of brain, in addition to conventional weights and bias, an EANN includes simulated emotional parameters aimed at improving the network learning process. EANN trained by a modified version of back-propagation (BP) algorithm was applied to single and multi-step-ahead runoff forecasting of two watersheds with two distinct climatic conditions. Also to evaluate the ability of EANN trained by smaller training data set, three data division strategies with different number of training samples were considered for the training purpose. The overall comparison of the obtained results of the r-r modeling indicates that the EANN could outperform the conventional feed forward neural network (FFNN) model up to 13% and 34% in terms of training and verification efficiency criteria, respectively. The superiority of EANN over classic ANN is due to its ability to recognize and distinguish dry (rainless days) and wet (rainy days) situations using hormonal parameters of the artificial emotional system.

  4. Hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation with BTOPMC model and comparison with Xin'anjiang model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hong-jun BAO; Li-li WANG; Zhi-jia LI; Lin-na ZHAO; Guo-ping ZHANG

    2010-01-01

    A grid-based distributed hydrological model, the Block-wise use of TOPMODEL (BTOPMC), which was developed from the original TOPMODEL, was used for hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation. In the BTOPMC model, the runoff is explicitly calculated on a cell-by-cell basis, and the Muskingum-Cunge flow concentration method is used. In order to test the model's applicability, the BTOPMC model and the Xin'anjiang model were applied to the simulation of a humid watershed and a semi-humid to semi-arid watershed in China. The model parameters were optimized with the Shuffle Complex Evolution (SCE-UA) method. Results show that both models can effectively simulate the daily hydrograph in humid watersheds, but that the BTOPMC model performs poorly in semi-humid to semi-arid watersheds. The excess-infiltration mechanism should be incorporated into the BTOPMC model to broaden the model's applicability.

  5. Modeling urban storm rainfall runoff from diverse underlying surfaces and application for control design in Beijing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Wei; Guo, Bobo; Hao, Fanghua; Huang, Haobo; Li, Junqi; Gong, Yongwei

    2012-12-30

    Managing storm rainfall runoff is paramount in semi-arid regions with urban development. In Beijing, pollution prevention in urban storm runoff and storm water utilization has been identified as the primary strategy for urban water management. In this paper, we sampled runoff during storm rainfall events and analyzed the concentration of chemical oxygen demand (COD), total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) in the runoff. Furthermore, the first flush effect of storm rainfall from diverse underlying surfaces was also analyzed. With the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the different impervious rates of underlying surfaces during the storm runoff process were expressed. The removal rates of three typical pollutants and their interactions with precipitation and underlying surfaces were identified. From these rates, the scenarios regarding the urban storm runoff pollution loading from different designs of underlying previous rates were assessed with the SWMM. First flush effect analysis showed that the first 20% of the storm runoff should be discarded, which can help in utilizing the storm water resource. The results of this study suggest that the SWMM can express in detail the storm water pollution patterns from diverse underlying surfaces in Beijing, which significantly affected water quality. The scenario analysis demonstrated that impervious rate adjustment has the potential to reduce runoff peak and decrease pollution loading.

  6. Accounting for the Impact of Impermeable Soil Layers on Pesticide Runoff and Leaching in a Landscape Vulnerability Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    A regional-scale model that estimates landscape vulnerability of pesticide leaching and runoff (solution and particle adsorbed) underestimated runoff vulnerability and overestimated leaching vulnerability compared to measured data when applied to a gently rolling landscape in northeast Missouri. Man...

  7. Studying the Effect of Runoff Parameterization and Interaction between Atmosphere and Land Surface in Land Surface Schemes Used in NWP Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodamorad Poor, M.; Irannejad, P.

    2009-04-01

    Land Surface Schemes that is one of the most important components in climate and numerical weather prediction models (NWP) has concentrated on surface energy and water budgets. Water budget is the hydrologic core of the land surface schemes and it is presented as the precipitation which is divided into evapotranspiration, runoff and changing in soil moisture. It is also introduced by different parameterizations among land surface schemes. Since Runoff is the major component of the water budget, unrealistic simulation of it can have some effects on the other components used in water budget and hence on the laten heat flux between atmosphere and land surface. Different representations of runoff in NWP models are relatively simple because runoff is conceptually difficult to be parameterized. Regarding that topography has a major control on the distribution of soil moisture and runoff, the main objective in this study is to find the parameterization runoff which is better to be introduced in NWP models. The algorithm used in Simple TOP Model (SIMTOP) for runoff parameterization is put in NOAH LSM utilized in Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). In SIMTOP, surface and subsurface runoff are considered as exponential functions of water table depth, but in NOAH LSM runoff is produced by extra maximum soil infiltration. The SIMTOP is like TOPMODEL that implemented topographic information (expressed by topographic index) and the nature of soil (indicated by reducing hydraulic conductivity with soil depth). The SIMTOP is simpler than TOPMODEL because of reducing in parameters that are needed to be calibrated. The surface runoff is the sum of two components, the first generated by infiltration excess (Horton mechanism) and the second, referring to variable contributed area, by saturation excess (Dunn mechanism). The subsurface runoff is represented by topographic control, bottom drainage and saturation excess. Although the river routing is very important for

  8. Constraints of artificial neural networks for rainfall-runoff modelling: trade-offs in hydrological state representation and model evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, de N.J.; Rientjes, T.H.M.

    2005-01-01

    The application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) in rainfall-runoff modelling needs to be researched more extensively in order to appreciate and fulfil the potential of this modelling approach. This paper reports on the application of multi-layer feedforward ANNs for rainfall-runoff modelling of

  9. Real Time Updating in Distributed Urban Rainfall Runoff Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borup, Morten; Madsen, Henrik

    When it rains on urban areas the rainfall runoff is transported out of the city via the drainage system. Frequently, the drainage system cannot handle all the rain water, which results in problems like flooding or overflows into natural water bodies. To reduce these problems the systems...

  10. Identification of phosphorus export from low-runoff yielding areas using combined application of high frequency water quality data and MODHMS modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donn, Michael J; Barron, Olga V; Barr, Anthony D

    2012-06-01

    In basins combining flat-sandy valleys and hilly-bedrock sub-catchments, the assessment of nutrient (phosphorus) exports from low-runoff yielding environments is difficult. To overcome this issue hydrological modelling and high frequency phosphorus measurements were simultaneously employed. A coupled surface water-groundwater interaction model (MODHMS) was used to determine runoff from the low-runoff yielding part of the catchment. The modelling results indicated that the lower catchment contributed less than 10% of annual catchment discharge over a number of weeks during mid-winter. High frequency phosphorus (P) measurements showed a threefold increase in P concentration during this period in 2008, which lasted for 3 weeks. Concentration-discharge analysis suggested that the increase in P concentration was associated with runoff generation processes in the low-runoff yielding sub-catchment. It was estimated that this area contributed 32% of the annual P load though only 2% of total annual discharge in 2008. Both runoff and P contributions occurred during the period when the water table rose to the surface causing inundation. It was shown that the P concentrations in discharge from the low-runoff yielding sub-catchment were similar to those observed in the shallow groundwater layers.

  11. Runoff modelling in glacierized Central Asian catchments for present-day and future climate

    OpenAIRE

    Hagg, Wilfried; Braun, L. N.; Weber, M.; Becht, M.

    2006-01-01

    A conceptual precipitation–runoff model was applied in five glacierized catchments in Central Asia. The model, which was first developed and applied in the Alps, works on a daily time step and yields good results in the more continental climate of the Tien Shan mountains for present-day climate conditions. Runoff scenarios for different climates (doubling of CO2) and glacierization conditions predict an increased flood risk as a first stage and a more complex picture after a complete glacier ...

  12. Rainfall Runoff Modelling for Cedar Creek using HEC-HMS model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathak, P.; Kalra, A.

    2015-12-01

    Rainfall-runoff modelling studies are carried out for the purpose of basin and river management. Different models have been effectively used to examine relationships between rainfall and runoff. Cedar Creek Watershed Basin, the largest tributary of St. Josephs River, located in northeastern Indiana, was selected as a study area. The HEC-HMS model developed by US Army Corps of Engineers was used for the hydrological modelling. The national elevation and national hydrography data was obtained from United States Geological Survey National Map Viewer and the SSURGO soil data was obtained from United States Department of Agriculture. The watershed received hypothetical uniform rainfall for a duration of 13 hours. The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number and Unit Hydrograph methods were used for simulating surface runoff. The simulation provided hydrological details about the quantity and variability of runoff in the watershed. The runoff for different curve numbers was computed for the same basin and rainfall, and it was found that outflow peaked at an earlier time with a higher value for higher curve numbers than for smaller curve numbers. It was also noticed that the impact on outflow values nearly doubled with an increase of curve number of 10 for each subbasin in the watershed. The results from the current analysis may aid water managers in effectively managing the water resources within the basin. 1 Graduate Student, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Southern Illinois University Carbondale, Carbondale, Illinois, 62901-6603 2 Development Review Division, Clark County Public Works, 500 S. Grand Central Parkway, Las Vegas, NV 89155, USA

  13. Meltwater flux and runoff modeling in the abalation area of jakobshavn Isbrae, West Greenland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mernild, Sebastian Haugard [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Chylek, Petr [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Liston, Glen [COLORADO STATE UNIV.; Steffen, Konrad [UNIV OF COLORADO

    2009-01-01

    The temporal variability in surface snow and glacier melt flux and runoff were investigated for the ablation area of lakobshavn Isbrae, West Greenland. High-resolution meteorological observations both on and outside the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) were used as model input. Realistic descriptions of snow accumulation, snow and glacier-ice melt, and runoff are essential to understand trends in ice sheet surface properties and processes. SnowModel, a physically based, spatially distributed meteorological and snow-evolution modeling system was used to simulate the temporal variability of lakobshavn Isbrre accumulation and ablation processes for 2000/01-2006/07. Winter snow-depth observations and MODIS satellite-derived summer melt observations were used for model validation of accumulation and ablation. Simulations agreed well with observed values. Simulated annual surface melt varied from as low as 3.83 x 10{sup 9} m{sup 3} (2001/02) to as high as 8.64 x 10{sup 9} m{sup 3} (2004/05). Modeled surface melt occurred at elevations reaching 1,870 m a.s.l. for 2004/05, while the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) fluctuated from 990 to 1,210 m a.s.l. during the simulation period. The SnowModel meltwater retention and refreezing routines considerably reduce the amount of meltwater available as ice sheet runoff; without these routines the lakobshavn surface runoff would be overestimated by an average of 80%. From September/October through May/June no runoff events were simulated. The modeled interannual runoff variability varied from 1.81 x 10{sup 9} m{sup 3} (2001/02) to 5.21 x 10{sup 9} m{sup 3} (2004/05), yielding a cumulative runoff at the Jakobshavn glacier terminus of {approx}2.25 m w.eq. to {approx}4.5 m w.eq., respectively. The average modeled lakobshavn runoff of {approx}3.4 km{sup 3} y{sup -1} was merged with previous estimates of Jakobshavn ice discharge to quantify the freshwater flux to Illulissat Icefiord. For both runoff and ice discharge the average trends are

  14. RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING IN THE TURKEY RIVER USING NUMERICAL AND REGRESSION METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Behmanesh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling rainfall-runoff relationships in a watershed have an important role in water resources engineering. Researchers have used numerical models for modeling rainfall-runoff process in the watershed because of non-linear nature of rainfall-runoff relationship, vast data requirement and physical models hardness. The main object of this research was to model the rainfall-runoff relationship at the Turkey River in Mississippi. In this research, two numerical models including ANN and ANFIS were used to model the rainfall-runoff process and the best model was chosen. Also, by using SPSS software, the regression equations were developed and then the best equation was selected from regression analysis. The obtained results from the numerical and regression modeling were compared each other. The comparison showed that the model obtained from ANFIS modeling was better than the model obtained from regression modeling. The results also stated that the Turkey river flow rate had a logical relationship with one and two days ago flow rate and one, two and three days ago rainfall values.

  15. RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING IN THE TURKEY RIVER USING NUMERICAL AND REGRESSION METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Behmanesh

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Modeling rainfall-runoff relationships in a watershed have an important role in water resources engineering. Researchers have used numerical models for modeling rainfall-runoff process in the watershed because of non-linear nature of rainfall-runoff relationship, vast data requirement and physical models hardness. The main object of this research was to model the rainfall-runoff relationship at the Turkey River in Mississippi. In this research, two numerical models including ANN and ANFIS were used to model the rainfall-runoff process and the best model was chosen. Also, by using SPSS software, the regression equations were developed and then the best equation was selected from regression analysis. The obtained results from the numerical and regression modeling were compared each other. The comparison showed that the model obtained from ANFIS modeling was better than the model obtained from regression modeling. The results also stated that the Turkey river flow rate had a logical relationship with one and two days ago flow rate and one, two and three days ago rainfall values.

  16. The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS): a Novel Open Source Rainfall-Runoff Model for Areas with Shallow Groundwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brauer, C.; Teuling, R.; Torfs, P.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2014-12-01

    Recently, we developed the Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS) to fill the gap between complex, spatially distributed models which are often used in lowland regions and simple, parametric models which have mostly been developed for mountainous catchments. This parametric rainfall-runoff model can be used all over the world, both in freely draining lowland catchments and polders with controlled water levels. Here, we present the model implementation and our recent experience in training students and practitioners to use the model. WALRUS has several advantages that facilitate practical application. Firstly, WALRUS is computationally efficient, which allows for operational forecasting and uncertainty estimation by running ensembles. Secondly, the code is set-up such that it can be used by both practitioners and researchers. For direct use by practitioners, defaults are implemented for relations between model variables and for the computation of initial conditions based on discharge only, leaving only four parameters which require calibration. For research purposes, the defaults can easily be changed. Finally, an approach for flexible time steps increases numerical stability and makes model parameter values independent of time step size, which facilitates use of the model with the same parameter set for multi-year water balance studies as well as detailed analyses of individual flood peaks. The open source model code is currently implemented in R and compiled into a package. This package will be made available through the R CRAN server. A small massive open online course (MOOC) is being developed to give students, researchers and practitioners a step-by-step WALRUS-training. This course contains explanations about model elements and its advantages and limitations, as well as hands-on exercises to learn how to use WALRUS. All code, course, literature and examples will be collected on a dedicated website, which can be found via www

  17. Application of spatially varying storage capacity model for runoff parameterization in semi-arid catchment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li-liang REN; Gui-zuo WANG; Fang LU; Tian-fang FANG

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces the method of designation of water storage capacity for each grid cell within a catchment, which considers topography, vegetation and soil synthetically. For the purpose of hydrological process simulation in semi-arid regions, a spatially varying storage capacity (VSC) model was developed based on the spatial distribution of water storage capacity and the vertical hybrid runoff mechanism. To verify the applicability of the VSC model, both the VSC model and a hybrid runoff model were used to simulate daily runoff processes in the catchment upstream of the Dianzi hydrological station from 1973 to 1979. The results showed that the annual average Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.80 for the VSC model, and only 0.67 for the hybrid runoff model. The higher annual average Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of the VSC model means that this hydrological model can better simulate daily runoff processes in semi-arid regions. Furthermore, as a distributed hydrological model, the VSC model can be applied in regional water resource management.

  18. Application of spatially varying storage capacity model for runoff parameterization in semi-arid catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-liang REN

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces the method of designation of water storage capacity for each grid cell within a catchment, which considers topography, vegetation and soil synthetically. For the purpose of hydrological process simulation in semi-arid regions, a spatially varying storage capacity (VSC model was developed based on the spatial distribution of water storage capacity and the vertical hybrid runoff mechanism. To verify the applicability of the VSC model, both the VSC model and a hybrid runoff model were used to simulate daily runoff processes in the catchment upstream of the Dianzi hydrological station from 1973 to 1979. The results showed that the annual average Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.80 for the VSC model, and only 0.67 for the hybrid runoff model. The higher annual average Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of the VSC model means that this hydrological model can better simulate daily runoff processes in semi-arid regions. Furthermore, as a distributed hydrological model, the VSC model can be applied in regional water resource management.

  19. Assessment of rainfall-runoff modelling for climate change mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otieno, Hesbon; Han, Dawei; Woods, Ross

    2015-04-01

    Sustainable water resources management requires reliable methods for quantification of hydrological variables. This is a big challenge in developing countries, due to the problem of inadequate data as a result of sparse gauge networks. Successive occurrence of both abundance and shortage of water can arise in a catchment within the same year, with deficit situations becoming an increasingly occurring phenomenon in Kenya. This work compares the performance of two models in the Tana River catchment in Kenya, in generation of synthetic flow data. One of the models is the simpler USGS Thornthwaite monthly water balance model that uses a monthly time step and has three parameters. In order to explore alternative modelling schemes, the more complex Pitman model with 19 parameters was also applied in the catchment. It is uncertain whether the complex model (Pitman) will do better than the simple model, because a model with a large number of parameters may do well in the current system but poorly in future. To check this we have used old data (1970-1985) to calibrate the models and to validate with recent data (after 1985) to see which model is robust over time. This study is relevant and useful to water resources managers in scenario analysis for water resources management, planning and development in African countries with similar climates and catchment conditions.

  20. Glacier surface mass balance and freshwater runoff modeling for the entire Andes Cordillera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mernild, Sebastian H.; Liston, Glen E.; Yde, Jacob C.

    2017-04-01

    Glacier surface mass balance (SMB) observations for the Andes Cordillera are limited and, therefore, estimates of the SMB contribution from South America to sea-level rise are highly uncertain. Here, we simulate meteorological, snow, glacier surface, and hydrological runoff conditions and trends for the Andes Cordillera (1979/80-2013/14), covering the tropical latitudes in the north down to the sub-polar latitudes in the far south, including the Northern Patagonia Ice Field (NPI) and Southern Patagonia Ice Field (SPI). SnowModel - a fully integrated energy balance, blowing-snow distribution, multi-layer snowpack, and runoff routing model - was used to simulate glacier SMBs for the Andes Cordillera. The Randolph Glacier Inventory and NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications products, downscaled in SnowModel, allowed us to conduct relatively high-resolution simulations. The simulated glacier SMBs were verified against independent directly-observed and satellite gravimetry and altimetry-derived SMB, indicating a good statistical agreement. For glaciers in the Andes Cordillera, the 35-year mean annual SMB was found to be -1.13 m water equivalent. For both NPI and SPI, the mean SMB was positive (where calving is the likely reason for explaining why geodetic estimates are negative). Further, the spatio-temporal freshwater river runoff patterns from individual basins, including their runoff magnitude and change, were simulated. For the Andes Cordillera rivers draining to the Pacific Ocean, 86% of the simulated runoff originated from rain, 12% from snowmelt, and 2% from ice melt, whereas, for example, for Chile, the water-source distribution was 69, 24, and 7%, respectively. Along the Andes Cordillera, the 35-year mean basin outlet-specific runoff (L s-1 km-2) showed a characteristic regional hourglass shape pattern with highest runoff in both Colombia and Ecuador and in Patagonia, and lowest runoff in the Atacama Desert area.

  1. A mathematical model for soil solute transfer into surface runoff as influenced by rainfall detachment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ting; Wang, Quanjiu; Wu, Laosheng; Zhao, Guangxu; Liu, Yanli; Zhang, Pengyu

    2016-07-01

    Nutrients transport is a main source of water pollution. Several models describing transport of soil nutrients such as potassium, phosphate and nitrate in runoff water have been developed. The objectives of this research were to describe the nutrients transport processes by considering the effect of rainfall detachment, and to evaluate the factors that have greatest influence on nutrients transport into runoff. In this study, an existing mass-conservation equation and rainfall detachment process were combined and augmented to predict runoff of nutrients in surface water in a Loess Plateau soil in Northwestern Yangling, China. The mixing depth is a function of time as a result of rainfall impact, not a constant as described in previous models. The new model was tested using two different sub-models of complete-mixing and incomplete-mixing. The complete-mixing model is more popular to use for its simplicity. It captured the runoff trends of those high adsorption nutrients, and of nutrients transport along steep slopes. While the incomplete-mixing model predicted well for the highest observed concentrations of the test nutrients. Parameters inversely estimated by the models were applied to simulate nutrients transport, results suggested that both models can be adopted to describe nutrients transport in runoff under the impact of rainfall.

  2. Modelling runoff depth and connectivity in commercial vineyards (DO Somontano, Huesca, NE Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Vicente, Manuel, , Dr.; Navas, Ana, , Dr.

    2015-04-01

    Surface runoff, soil redistribution and sediment delivery are non-linear processes that depend on many parameters, and thus, numerical simulation of overland flow, sediments and other solutes connectivity is a complex and non-solved task. Additionally, man-made landscape linear elements (LLEs: unpaved and paved trails, roads, land levelling, irrigation ditches, stone walls, dams, etc.) modify the natural patterns of connectivity. Mediterranean soils have been cultivated for hundreds and thousands of years and landscapes appear intensively modified. Vineyards are one of the most ancient crops in Mediterranean countries and recently in other countries around the World. In this study, we run the IC model of connectivity (Borselli et al., 2008, doi:10.1016/j.catena.2008.07.006) and the water balance DR2-2013© SAGA v1.1 model (López-Vicente et al., 2014, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.08.025; software freely downloaded at http://digital.csic.es/handle/10261/93543) in a vineyard (26.4 ha) composed by four fields (6.2 ha) and their upslope drainage area. These commercial fields belong to a winery included in the Somontano certificate of origin. All input maps are generated at 5 x 5 m of cell size and the digital elevation model is based on LIDAR technology. The map of connectivity showed the typical spatial pattern of overland flow though values of connectivity varied along the whole map. The average value was -2.65 (sd = -0.62) and within the four vineyards was -2.46 (sd = -0.65). High connectivity appeared in bare soil areas, in the unpaved trail and within some sections of the main pathways. The lowest connectivity appeared in the forest and in small areas within the vineyards. The effective rainfall (ER) that reaches the soils, was 88% on average (384 mm) from the total rainfall depth (436 mm yr-1) and the average initial runoff, before overland flow processes, was 382 mm yr-1 (sd = 31 mm). The ER within the vineyards was 81%. The effective runoff (CQeff) ranged from 0

  3. Rainfall-runoff model HEC-HMS in a small inhomogeneous basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponížilová, Iva; Unucka, Jan; Říhová, Veronika

    2014-05-01

    The contribution focuses on the applicability of the hydrologic rainfall-runoff model HEC-HMS to verify the effect of inhomogeneities of the basin surface. The simulation of an extreme rainfall-runoff episode using the HEC-HMS model should prove the influence of basin inhomogeneity on the speed and volume of runoff and the potential of watersheds on runoff mitigation. The area of interest is situated in North Bohemia, Czech Republic. Inhomogeneity of the Robecsky stream basin is caused by different physical-geographic conditions in the basin of the main reaches of the Robecsky stream and its major left tributary which is the Bobri stream. Before their confluence, both streams have a comparable catchment area of about 130 km2. Significant differences are manifested in average altitude of the basin, basin shape, basin slope, time of concentration and the proportion of forest areas. The Bobri stream shows more extreme runoff characteristics in combination with a smaller area of forestation. Another important factor affecting runoff from the basin is the proportion of watersheds that accumulate water in the landscape and cause runoff mitigation and slowdown. To illustrate the influence of watersheds Machovo Lake on the Robecsky stream and Holansky pond on the Bobri stream were selected. Machovo Lake is the third largest watershed in the territory of the Czech Republic. Holansky pond is the largest of the system of Holansky ponds. The Robecsky stream has the lowest runoff coefficient from the entire Ploucnice basin. The lakes surface-drainage area ratio is approximately 1.7% of the total catchment area of the Robecsky stream. The rainfall-runoff model HEC-HMS was utilized for the analysis and to determine the volume of runoff the method of CN curves was used that depends on hydrological properties of soils. For schematisation of extreme runoff conditions of the basin the precipitation period from 6th to 8th August 2010 was selected. Extremeness of peak flows of the

  4. Application of snowmelt runoff model (SRM in mountainous watersheds: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shalamu ABUDU

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The snowmelt runoff model (SRM has been widely used in simulation and forecast of streamflow in snow-dominated mountainous basins around the world. This paper presents an overall review of worldwide applications of SRM in mountainous watersheds, particularly in data-sparse watersheds of northwestern China. Issues related to proper selection of input climate variables and parameters, and determination of the snow cover area (SCA using remote sensing data in snowmelt runoff modeling are discussed through extensive review of literature. Preliminary applications of SRM in northwestern China have shown that the model accuracies are relatively acceptable although most of the watersheds lack measured hydro-meteorological data. Future research could explore the feasibility of modeling snowmelt runoff in data-sparse mountainous watersheds in northwestern China by utilizing snow and glacier cover remote sensing data, geographic information system (GIS tools, field measurements, and innovative ways of model parameterization.

  5. Long-term runoff forecasting by combining hydrological models and meteorological records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Tao-Chang; Yu, Pao-Shan; Chen, Chiang-Chi

    2005-06-01

    Reservoir operation is generally based on the inflows of the upstream catchment of the reservoir. If the arriving inflows can be forecasted, that can benefit reservoir operation and management. This study attempts to construct a long-term inflow-forecasting model by combining a continuous rainfall-runoff model with the long-term weather outlook from the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan. The analytical results demonstrate that the continuous rainfall-runoff model has good inflow simulation performance by using 10-day meteorological and inflow records over a 33-year period for model calibration and verification. The long-term inflow forecasting during the dry season was further conducted by combining the continuous rainfall-runoff model and the long-term weather outlook, which was found to have good performance.

  6. Snowmelt runoff modeling in simulation and forecasting modes with the Martinec-Mango model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafer, B.; Jones, E. B.; Frick, D. M. (Principal Investigator)

    1982-01-01

    The Martinec-Rango snowmelt runoff model was applied to two watersheds in the Rio Grande basin, Colorado-the South Fork Rio Grande, a drainage encompassing 216 sq mi without reservoirs or diversions and the Rio Grande above Del Norte, a drainage encompassing 1,320 sq mi without major reservoirs. The model was successfully applied to both watersheds when run in a simulation mode for the period 1973-79. This period included both high and low runoff seasons. Central to the adaptation of the model to run in a forecast mode was the need to develop a technique to forecast the shape of the snow cover depletion curves between satellite data points. Four separate approaches were investigated-simple linear estimation, multiple regression, parabolic exponential, and type curve. Only the parabolic exponential and type curve methods were run on the South Fork and Rio Grande watersheds for the 1980 runoff season using satellite snow cover updates when available. Although reasonable forecasts were obtained in certain situations, neither method seemed ready for truly operational forecasts, possibly due to a large amount of estimated climatic data for one or two primary base stations during the 1980 season.

  7. Combining dual-continuum approach with diffusion wave model to include a preferential flow component in hillslope scale modeling of shallow subsurface runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dusek, Jaromir; Vogel, Tomas; Dohnal, Michal; Gerke, Horst H.

    2012-08-01

    In the absence of overland flow, shallow subsurface runoff is one of the most important mechanisms determining hydrological responses of headwater catchments to rainstorms. Subsurface runoff can be triggered by preferential flow of infiltrating water frequently occurring in heterogeneous and structured soils as a basically one-dimensional (1D) vertical process. Any attempt to include effects of preferential flow in hydrological hillslope studies is limited by the fact that the thickness of the permeable soil is mostly small compared to the length of the hillslope. The objective of this study is to describe preferential flow effects on hillslope-scale subsurface runoff by combining a 1D vertical dual-continuum approach with a 1D lateral flow equation. The 1D vertical flow of water in a variably saturated soil is described by a coupled set of Richards' equations and the 1D saturated lateral flow of water on less permeable bedrock by the diffusion wave equation. The numerical solution of the combined model was used to study rainfall-runoff events on the Tomsovska hillslope by comparing simulated runoff with observed trench discharge data. The dual-continuum model generated the observed rapid runoff response, which served as an input for the lateral flow model. The diffusion wave model parameters (i.e., length of the contributing hillslope, effective porosity, and effective hydraulic conductivity) indicate that the hillslope length that contributed to subsurface drainage is relatively short (in the range of 25-50 m). Significant transformation of the 1D vertical inflow signal by lateral flow is expected for longer hillslopes, smaller effective conductivities, and larger effective porosities. The physically-based combined modeling approach allows for a consistent description of both preferential flow in a 1D vertical soil profile and lateral subsurface hillslope flow in the simplest way.

  8. Runoff prediction in a poorly gauged basin using isotope-calibrated models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamanaka, Tsutomu; Ma, Wenchao

    2017-01-01

    Predictions in ungauged basins have been a major challenge in hydrologic sciences, and there is still much work needed to achieve robust and reliable predictions for such basins. Here, we propose and test a novel approach for predicting runoff from poorly gauged basins using a minimum complex model calibrated with isotope data alone (i.e., without observed discharge data). The model is composed of two water-stores (soil water and groundwater) and considers their connectivity to runoff in terms of both water and isotope budgets. In a meso-scale basin in which riverbed deformations frequently occur, making automatic observation of river discharge difficult, we measured hydrogen and oxygen isotope composition (δ2H and δ18O) of precipitation and river water twice-weekly for one year. Runoff predicted by the model agreed well with that observed monthly or bimonthly. Monte Carlo simulation revealed a strong coherence between model performance in isotope simulation and runoff prediction, demonstrating that the use of isotopes as dynamic proxies of calibration targets helps reliably constrain model parameters. Our results indicate that this approach can serve as a powerful tool for prediction of runoff hydrographs, particularly for basins in which the stage-discharge relationship is highly variable.

  9. Effect of dry spells and soil cracking on runoff generation in a semiarid micro watershed under land use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    dos Santos, Julio Cesar Neves; de Andrade, Eunice Maia; Guerreiro, Maria João Simas; Medeiros, Pedro Henrique Augusto; de Queiroz Palácio, Helba Araújo; de Araújo Neto, José Ribeiro

    2016-10-01

    Soil and water resources effective management and planning in a river basin rely on understanding of runoff generation processes, yield, and their relations to rainfall. This study analyzes the effects of antecedent soil moisture in an expansive soil and the influence of dry spells on soil cracking, runoff generation and yield in a semiarid tropical region in Brazil subject to land use change. Data were collected from 2009 to 2013 in a 2.8 ha watershed, totaling 179 natural rainfall events. In the first year of study (2009), the watershed maintained a typical dry tropical forest cover (arboreal-shrub Caatinga cover). Before the beginning of the second year of study, gamba grass (Andropogon gayanus Kunth) was cultivated after slash and burn of native vegetation. Gamba grass land use was maintained for the rest of the monitoring period. The occurrence of dry spells and the formation of cracks in the Vertisol soil were the most important factors controlling flow generation. Dry spells promoted crack formation in the expansive soil, which acted as preferential flow paths leading to high initial abstractions: average conditions for runoff to be generated included soil moisture content above 20%, rainfall above 70 mm, I30max above 60 mm h-1 and five continuous dry days at the most. The change of vegetation cover in the second year of study did not alter significantly the overall conditions for runoff initiation, showing similar cumulative flow vs. rainfall response, implying that soil conditions, such as humidity and cracks, best explain the flow generation process on the semiarid micro-scale watershed with Vertisol soil.

  10. The ensemble particle filter (EnPF) in rainfall-runoff models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Delft, G.; El Serafy, G.Y.; Heemink, A.W.

    2009-01-01

    Rainfall-runoff models play a very important role in flood forecasting. However, these models contain large uncertainties caused by errors in both the model itself and the input data. Data assimilation techniques are being used to reduce these uncertainties. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the

  11. The ensemble particle filter (EnPF) in rainfall-runoff models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Delft, G.; El Serafy, G.Y.; Heemink, A.W.

    2009-01-01

    Rainfall-runoff models play a very important role in flood forecasting. However, these models contain large uncertainties caused by errors in both the model itself and the input data. Data assimilation techniques are being used to reduce these uncertainties. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the

  12. Runoff of pesticides from rice fields in the Ile de Camargue (Rhone river delta, France): Field study and modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Comoretto, Laetitia; Arfib, Bruno; Talva, Romain; Chauvelon, Philippe; Pichaud, Marc; Chiron, Serge [Laboratoire Chimie et Environnement, Universite de Provence, Case 29, 3, Place Victor Hugo, F-13331 Marseille Cedex 3 (France); Hoehener, Patrick [Laboratoire Chimie et Environnement, Universite de Provence, Case 29, 3, Place Victor Hugo, F-13331 Marseille Cedex 3 (France)], E-mail: hoehener@up.univ-mrs.fr

    2008-02-15

    A field study on the runoff of pesticides was conducted during the cultivation period in 2004 on a hydraulically isolated rice farm of 120 ha surface with one central water outlet. Four pesticides were studied: Alphamethrin, MCPA, Oxadiazon, and Pretilachlor. Alphamethrin concentrations in runoff never exceeded 0.001 {mu}g L{sup -1}. The three other pesticides were found in concentrations between 5.2 and 28.2 {mu}g L{sup -1} in the runoff water shortly after the application and decreased thereafter. The data for MCPA compared reasonably well with predictions by an analytical runoff model, accounting for volatilization, degradation, leaching to groundwater, and sorption to soil. The runoff model estimated that runoff accounted for as much as 18-42% of mass loss for MCPA. Less runoff is observed and predicted for Oxadiazon and Pretilachlor. It was concluded that runoff from rice paddies carries important loads of dissolved pesticides to the wetlands in the Ile de Camargue, and that the model can be used to predict this runoff. - Runoff of dissolved pesticides was measured on a rice farm in the Camargue (France) and modeled with an analytical model.

  13. Response of Arctic Ocean stratification to changing river runoff in a column model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nummelin, Aleksi; Li, Camille; Smedsrud, Lars H.

    2015-04-01

    A one-dimensional model of the atmosphere-ice-ocean column is used to study the effects of changing river runoff to the Arctic Ocean. River runoff is the largest contributor of freshwater to the Arctic and is expected to increase as the hydrological cycle accelerates due to global warming. The column model simulates the stratification of the Arctic Ocean reasonably well, capturing important features such as the fresh surface layer, the salty cold halocline, and the temperature maximum within the Atlantic Water layer. The model is run for 500 years with prescribed boundary conditions to reach steady state solutions. Increasing river runoff is found to strengthen the stratification and to produce a fresher and shallower surface mixed layer with warming (up to ˜1°C for a doubling of present-day runoff) in the Atlantic Water layer below. An important consequence is that the effect of the larger vertical temperature gradient is able to balance that of the stronger stratification and yield a close to constant vertical heat flux toward the surface. As a result, the sea ice response is small, showing only slight increase (up to ˜15 cm for a doubling of present-day runoff) in annual mean ice thickness. Limitations of the study include the idealized nature of the column model and uncertainties in the background vertical mixing within the Arctic Ocean.

  14. Real time adjustment of slow changing flow components in distributed urban runoff models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borup, Morten; Grum, M.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2011-01-01

    . This information is then used to update the states of the hydrological model. The method is demonstrated on the 20 km2 Danish urban catchment of Ballerup, which has substantial amount of infiltration inflow after succeeding rain events, for a very rainy period of 17 days in August 2010. The results show big......In many urban runoff systems infiltrating water contributes with a substantial part of the total inflow and therefore most urban runoff modelling packages include hydrological models for simulating the infiltrating inflow. This paper presents a method for deterministic updating of the hydrological...

  15. Calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model for flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, Robert

    1999-10-01

    An approach is described to the calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, the Probability Distributed Model (PDM), for estimating flood frequencies at gauged sites by continuous flow simulation. A first step was the estimation of routing store parameters by recession curve analysis. Uniform random sampling was then used to search for parameter sets that produced simulations achieving the best fit to observed, hourly flow data over a 2-year period. Goodness of fit was expressed in terms of four objective functions designed to give different degrees of weight to peaks in flow. Flood frequency results were improved, if necessary, by manual adjustment of parameters, with reference to peaks extracted from the entire hourly flow record. Although the primary aim was to reproduce observed peaks, consideration was also given to finding parameter sets capable of generating a realistic overall characterization of the flow regime. Examples are shown where the calibrated model generated simulations that reproduced well the magnitude and frequency distribution of peak flows. Factors affecting the acceptability of these simulations are discussed. For an example catchment, a sensitivity analysis shows that there may be more than one set of parameter values well suited to the simulation of peak flows.

  16. Estimation of parameters in a distributed precipitation-runoff model for Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Beldring

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A distributed version of the HBV-model using 1 km2 grid cells and daily time step was used to simulate runoff from the entire land surface of Norway for the period 1961-1990. The model was sensitive to changes in small scale properties of the land surface and the climatic input data, through explicit representation of differences between model elements, and by implicit consideration of sub-grid variations in moisture status. A geographically transferable set of model parameters was determined by a multi-criteria calibration strategy, which simultaneously minimised the residuals between model simulated and observed runoff from 141 Norwegian catchments located in areas with different runoff regimes and landscape characteristics. Model discretisation units with identical landscape classification were assigned similar parameter values. Model performance was evaluated by simulating discharge from 43 independent catchments. Finally, a river routing procedure using a kinematic wave approximation to open channel flow was introduced in the model, and discharges from three additional catchments were calculated and compared with observations. The model was used to produce a map of average annual runoff for Norway for the period 1961-1990. Keywords: distributed model, multi-criteria calibration, global parameters, ungauged catchments.

  17. Modeling of hydrographs in torrent catchments by use of improved field data and adapted precipitation/runoff models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, B.; Klebinder, K.; Kirnbauer, R.; Markart, G.

    2009-04-01

    For description of runoff formation in alpine catchments still often simple runoff formulas are used on the one hand. On the other hand many precipitation / runoff models for assessment of runoff characteristics in mesoscale and microscale catchments require detailed input data and some are using algorithms which don't describe runoff processes "process-oriented". This especially applies to lumped and to some conceptual models. Fully distributed models mostly require enormous effort for determining serious catchment description parameters. As a first step into the direction of a time and cost sparing but still process based assessment of runoff development in alpine torrent catchments a two column-procedure has been developed at the BFW in cooperation with university scientists and in cooperation with the Austrian Avalanche and Torrent Control Service and the Bavarian Environmental Agency: 1) Based on the results of about 700 simulations of torrential rain on various soil vegetation complexes and land-use forms in the Eastern Alps a code of practice for assessment of surface runoff coefficients in torrential rain has been developed. By use of three indicator groups (soil conditions, sort and condition of plant cover, way and intensity of land-use / cultivation) runoff coefficients and surface roughness coefficients can be easily attributed to runoff contributing hydrological vegetation units. The big advantage: Dominant infiltration and runoff controlling processes are integrated in the assessed runoff and surface roughness coefficients. The manual is freely available under: http://bfw.ac.at/rz/bfwcms.web?dok=4342 (in German language). 2) The coefficients derived from field studies and/or GIS analysis form input parameters for the precipitation / runoff model ZEMOKOST (The runtime Method of ZEller MOdified by KOhl and STepanek), an MS-EXCEL based calculation tool which can be used with or without GIS-environment. The approach is permanently improved by addition of

  18. Reduction of uncertainty for estimating runoff with the NRCS CN model by the adaptation to local climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durán-Barroso, Pablo; González, Javier; Valdés, Juan B.

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall-runoff quantification is one of the most important tasks in both engineering and watershed management as it allows to identify, forecast and explain watershed response. For that purpose, the Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number method (NRCS CN) is the conceptual lumped model more recognized in the field of rainfall-runoff estimation. Furthermore, there is still an ongoing discussion about the procedure to determine the portion of rainfall retained in the watershed before runoff is generated, called as initial abstractions. This concept is computed as a ratio (λ) of the soil potential maximum retention S of the watershed. Initially, this ratio was assumed to be 0.2, but later it has been proposed to be modified to 0.05. However, the actual procedures to convert NRCS CN model parameters obtained under a different hypothesis about λ do not incorporate any adaptation of climatic conditions of each watershed. By this reason, we propose a new simple method for computing model parameters which is adapted to local conditions taking into account regional patterns of climate conditions. After checking the goodness of this procedure against the actual ones in 34 different watersheds located in Ohio and Texas (United States), we concluded that this novel methodology represents the most accurate and efficient alternative to refit the initial abstraction ratio.

  19. Runoff Modeling for a Watershed in Pothowar Region of Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qazi Tallat Mahmood Siddiqui

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Floods are among the most devastating natural hazards in the world. Pakistan has big rivers and flood planning and management is mainly concentrated on riverine floods occurring during monsoon. However, flash floods in hilly and Pothowar (semi-hilly area are also common with demonstrated damage potential. This study was taken up to thoroughly investigate flood mechanism and inundation behavior in a watershed in Pothowar region by use of computer modeling with the Lai Stream as a case study. The Lai Stream Basin with an area of 235 km2 is located in northern part of Pakistan. Lai is the main stream passing through Rawalpindi city with a flood damaging history of almost once in every three years. 2001-Flood has been the largest among recorded events claiming 74 human lives, affecting 400,000 people and inflicting a capital loss of USD 0.25 billion. Thorough data analysis was performed to select most suitable data for computer modeling. The whole basin was divided in to fifteen (15 sub-basins and their respective yields were generated and subsequently incorporated in to river network of Lai Stream. Calibration was achieved successfully along the river profile with 2001 flood as target followed by the estimation of standard flood discharge for Lai stream. Thereupon useful recommendations have been made to utilize the model for mitigating flash flood events in urban/inhabited Pothowar (semi-hilly region of Pakistan in particular and world over in general.

  20. Estimation of parameters in a distributed precipitation-runoff model for Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beldring, Stein; Engeland, Kolbjørn; Roald, Lars A.; Roar Sælthun, Nils; Voksø, Astrid

    A distributed version of the HBV-model using 1 km2 grid cells and daily time step was used to simulate runoff from the entire land surface of Norway for the period 1961-1990. The model was sensitive to changes in small scale properties of the land surface and the climatic input data, through explicit representation of differences between model elements, and by implicit consideration of sub-grid variations in moisture status. A geographically transferable set of model parameters was determined by a multi-criteria calibration strategy, which simultaneously minimised the residuals between model simulated and observed runoff from 141 Norwegian catchments located in areas with different runoff regimes and landscape characteristics. Model discretisation units with identical landscape classification were assigned similar parameter values. Model performance was evaluated by simulating discharge from 43 independent catchments. Finally, a river routing procedure using a kinematic wave approximation to open channel flow was introduced in the model, and discharges from three additional catchments were calculated and compared with observations. The model was used to produce a map of average annual runoff for Norway for the period 1961-1990.

  1. A two-stage storage routing model for green roof runoff detention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vesuviano, Gianni; Sonnenwald, Fred; Stovin, Virginia

    2014-01-01

    Green roofs have been adopted in urban drainage systems to control the total quantity and volumetric flow rate of runoff. Modern green roof designs are multi-layered, their main components being vegetation, substrate and, in almost all cases, a separate drainage layer. Most current hydrological models of green roofs combine the modelling of the separate layers into a single process; these models have limited predictive capability for roofs not sharing the same design. An adaptable, generic, two-stage model for a system consisting of a granular substrate over a hard plastic 'egg box'-style drainage layer and fibrous protection mat is presented. The substrate and drainage layer/protection mat are modelled separately by previously verified sub-models. Controlled storm events are applied to a green roof system in a rainfall simulator. The time-series modelled runoff is compared to the monitored runoff for each storm event. The modelled runoff profiles are accurate (mean Rt(2) = 0.971), but further characterization of the substrate component is required for the model to be generically applicable to other roof configurations with different substrate.

  2. A generic framework for the identification of hydrological droughts through the propagation of runoff generation mechanisms in semi-arid catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paraskeuas, Ioannis; Vasiliades, Lampros; Loukas, Athanasios

    2015-04-01

    Hydrological drought characteristics have been extensively studied for the design of hydrotechnical projects and water resources planning and management during the last decade. Information on the magnitude and frequency of low flows is very important for hydrological drought analysis at operational level in public water supply systems. The objective of this study is to investigate the propagation of runoff generation mechanisms for the identification of hydrological droughts with the use of the HBV rainfall-runoff model. A methodological framework is developed based on the classical variable threshold method suitable for semiarid catchments where zero runoff occurs at summer months. The procedures included in the framework contain calibration and validation of the HBV model in lumped and semi-lumped modes based on the elevation zones of the study watershed for estimating the spatial distribution of rainfall into the runoff components for the whole watershed and each elevation zone. Then, the monthly variable threshold method is applied and the inter-event time and volume criterion was selected as a pooling method to derive independent deficits of the study variables. Two analyses are performed in the derived deficits. Firstly, a qualitative analysis is applied to identify the lags between the rainfall, the soil moisture, the runoff components (quick, intermediate and slow runoff) and the total discharge. The lag time between the occurrences in the different components is examined and analyzed through cross-correlation and event to event analyses. Secondly, a quantitative probabilistic analysis is applied in the derived deficit characteristics (volume and duration deficit) for each variable. The probabilistic analysis provides an overall characterization of the basin concerning the drought events and is orientated to long term drought management and infrastructure design such as reservoir management and regulation. Moreover, the drought events are being

  3. Conditioning rainfall-runoff model parameters to reduce prediction uncertainty in ungauged basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visessri, S.; McIntyre, N.; Maksimovic, C.

    2012-12-01

    Conditioning rainfall-runoff model parameters in ungauged catchments in Thailand presents problems common to ungauged basins involving data availability, data quality, and rainfall-runoff model suitability, which all contribute to prediction uncertainty. This paper attempts to improve the estimation of streamflow in ungauged basins and reduce associated uncertainties using the approaches of conditioning the prior parameter space. 35 catchments from the upper Ping River basin, Thailand are selected as a case study. The catchments have a range of attributes e.g. catchment sizes 20-6350 km2, elevations 632-1529 m above sea level. and annual rainfall 846-1447 mm/year. For each catchment, three indices - rainfall-runoff elasticity, base flow index and runoff coefficient - are calculated using the observed rainfall-runoff data and regression equations relating these indices to the catchment attributes are identified. Uncertainty in expected indices is defined by the regression error distribution, approximated by a Gaussian model. The IHACRES model is applied for simulating streamflow. The IHACRES parameters are randomly sampled from their presumed prior parameter space. For each sampled parameter set, the streamflow and hence the three indices are modelled. The parameter sets are conditioned on the probability distributions of the regionalised indices, allowing ensemble predictions to be made. The objective function, NSE, calculated for daily and weekly time steps from the water years 1995-2000, is used to assess model performance. Ability to capture observed streamflow and the precision of the estimate is evaluated using reliability and sharpness measures. Similarity in modelled and expected indices contributes to good objective function values. Using only the regionalised runoff coefficient to condition the model yields better NSE values compared to using either only the rainfall-runoff elasticity or only the base flow index. Conditioning on the runoff coefficient

  4. Application of pesticide transport model for simulating diazinon runoff in California’s central valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyce, Brian A.; Wallender, Wesley W.; Mailapalli, Damodhara R.

    2010-12-01

    Dormant spray application of pesticides to almond and other stone fruit orchards is the main source of diazinon during the winter in California's central valley. Understanding the pesticide transport and the tradeoffs associated with the various management practices is greatly facilitated by the use of physically-based contaminant transport models. In this study, performance of Joyce's et al. (2008) pesticide transport model was evaluated using experimental data collected from two ground treatments such as resident vegetation and bare soil. The model simulation results obtained in calibration and validation process were analyzed for pesticide concentration and total load. The pesticide transport model accurately predicted the pesticide concentrations and total load in the runoff from bare field and was capable of simulating chemical responses to rainfall-runoff events. In case of resident vegetation, the model results exhibited a larger range of variation than was observed in the bare soil simulations due to increased model parameterization with the addition of foliage and thatch compartments. Furthermore, the model was applied to study the effect of runoff lag time, extent of crop cover, organic content of soil and post-application irrigation on the pesticide peak concentration and total load. Based on the model results, recommendations were suggested to growers prior to implementing certain management decisions to mitigate diazinon transport in the orchard's spray runoff.

  5. Multi-criteria validation of artificial neural network rainfall-runoff modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Modarres

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study we propose a comprehensive multi-criteria validation test for rainfall-runoff modeling by artificial neural networks. This study applies 17 global statistics and 3 additional non-parametric tests to evaluate the ANNs. The weakness of global statistics for validation of ANN is demonstrated by rainfall-runoff modeling of the Plasjan Basin in the western region of the Zayandehrud watershed, Iran. Although the global statistics showed that the multi layer perceptron with 4 hidden layers (MLP4 is the best ANN for the basin comparing with other MLP networks and empirical regression model, but the non-parametric tests illustrate that neither the ANNs nor the regression model are able to reproduce the probability distribution of observed runoff in validation phase. However, the MLP4 network is the best network to reproduce the mean and variance of the observed runoff based on non-parametric tests. The performance of ANNs and empirical model was also demonstrated for low-medium and high flows. Although the MLP4 network gives the best performance among ANNs for low-medium and high flows based on different statistics but the empirical model shows better results. However, none of the models is able to simulate the frequency distribution of low-medium and high flows according to non-parametric tests. This study illustrates that the modelers should select appropriate and relevant evaluation measures from the set of existing metrics based on the particular requirements of each individual applications.

  6. Rainfall-runoff model for prediction of waterborne viral contamination in a small river catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelati, E.; Dommar, C.; Lowe, R.; Polcher, J.; Rodó, X.

    2013-12-01

    We present a lumped rainfall-runoff model aimed at providing useful information for the prediction of waterborne viral contamination in small rivers. Viral contamination of water bodies may occur because of the discharge of sewage effluents and of surface runoff over areas affected by animal waste loads. Surface runoff is caused by precipitation that cannot infiltrate due to its intensity and to antecedent soil water content. It may transport animal feces to adjacent water bodies and cause viral contamination. We model streamflow by separating it into two components: subsurface flow, which is produced by infiltrated precipitation; and surface runoff. The model estimates infiltrated and non-infiltrated precipitation and uses impulse-response functions to compute the corresponding fractions of streamflow. The developed methodologies are applied to the Glafkos river, whose catchment extends for 102 km2 and includes the city of Patra. Streamflow and precipitation observations are available at a daily time resolution. Waterborne virus concentration measurements were performed approximately every second week from the beginning of 2011 to mid 2012. Samples were taken at several locations: in river water upstream of Patras and in the urban area; in sea water at the river outlet and approximately 2 km south-west of Patras; in sewage effluents before and after treatment. The rainfall-runoff model was calibrated and validated using observed streamflow and precipitation data. The model contribution to waterborne viral contamination prediction was benchmarked by analyzing the virus concentration measurements together with the estimated surface runoff values. The presented methodology may be a first step towards the development of waterborne viral contamination alert systems. Predicting viral contamination of water bodies would benefit sectors such as water supply and tourism.

  7. Assessment of Noah land surface model with various runoff parameterizations over a Tibetan river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Donghai; Van Der Velde, Rogier; Su, Zhongbo; Wen, Jun; Wang, Xin

    2017-02-01

    Runoff parameterizations currently adopted by the (i) Noah-MP model, (ii) Community Land Model (CLM), and (iii) CLM with variable infiltration capacity hydrology (CLM-VIC) are incorporated into the structure of Noah land surface model, and the impact of these parameterizations on the runoff simulations is investigated for a Tibetan river. Four numerical experiments are conducted with the default Noah and three aforementioned runoff parameterizations. Each experiment is forced with the same set of atmospheric forcing, vegetation, and soil parameters. In addition, the Community Earth System Model database provides the maximum surface saturated area parameter for the Noah-MP and CLM parameterizations. A single-year recurrent spin-up is adopted for the initialization of each model run to achieve equilibrium states. Comparison with discharge measurements shows that each runoff parameterization produces significant differences in the separation of total runoff into surface and subsurface components and that the soil water storage-based parameterizations (Noah and CLM-VIC) outperform the groundwater table-based parameterizations (Noah-MP and CLM) for the seasonally frozen and high-altitude Tibetan river. A parameter sensitivity experiment illustrates that this underperformance of the groundwater table-based parameterizations cannot be resolved through calibration. Further analyses demonstrate that the simulations of other surface water and energy budget components are insensitive to the selected runoff parameterizations, due to the strong control of the atmosphere on simulated land surface fluxes induced by the diurnal dependence of the roughness length for heat transfer and the large water retention capacity of the highly organic top soils over the plateau.

  8. Enhancing a rainfall-runoff model to assess the impacts of BMPs and LID practices on storm runoff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yaoze; Ahiablame, Laurent M; Bralts, Vincent F; Engel, Bernard A

    2015-01-01

    Best management practices (BMPs) and low impact development (LID) practices are increasingly being used as stormwater management techniques to reduce the impacts of urban development on hydrology and water quality. To assist planners and decision-makers at various stages of development projects (planning, implementation, and evaluation), user-friendly tools are needed to assess the effectiveness of BMPs and LID practices. This study describes a simple tool, the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-LID (L-THIA-LID), which is enhanced with additional BMPs and LID practices, improved approaches to estimate hydrology and water quality, and representation of practices in series (meaning combined implementation). The tool was used to evaluate the performance of BMPs and LID practices individually and in series with 30 years of daily rainfall data in four types of idealized land use units and watersheds (low density residential, high density residential, industrial, and commercial). Simulation results were compared with the results of other published studies. The simulated results showed that reductions in runoff volume and pollutant loads after implementing BMPs and LID practices, both individually and in series, were comparable with the observed impacts of these practices. The L-THIA-LID 2.0 model is capable of assisting decision makers in evaluating environmental impacts of BMPs and LID practices, thereby improving the effectiveness of stormwater management decisions.

  9. Analysis and Modeling of Time-Correlated Characteristics of Rainfall-Runoff Similarity in the Upstream Red River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiuli Sang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We constructed a similarity model (based on Euclidean distance between rainfall and runoff to study time-correlated characteristics of rainfall-runoff similar patterns in the upstream Red River Basin and presented a detailed evaluation of the time correlation of rainfall-runoff similarity. The rainfall-runoff similarity was used to determine the optimum similarity. The results showed that a time-correlated model was found to be capable of predicting the rainfall-runoff similarity in the upstream Red River Basin in a satisfactory way. Both noised and denoised time series by thresholding the wavelet coefficients were applied to verify the accuracy of model. And the corresponding optimum similar sets obtained as the equation solution conditions showed an interesting and stable trend. On the whole, the annual mean similarity presented a gradually rising trend, for quantitatively estimating comprehensive influence of climate change and of human activities on rainfall-runoff similarity.

  10. Physical design optimization of an urban runoff treatment system using Stormwater Management Model (SWMM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobio, J A S; Maniquiz-Redillas, M C; Kim, L H

    2015-01-01

    The study presented the application of Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) in determining the optimal physical design properties of an established low impact development (LID) system treating road runoff. The calibration of the model was based on monitored storm events occurring from May 2010 to July 2013. It was found that the total suspended solids was highly correlated with stormwater runoff volume and dominant heavy metal constituents in stormwater runoff, such lead, zinc and copper, with a Pearson correlation coefficient ranging from 0.88 to 0.95 (P<0.05). Reducing the original ratio of the storage volume to surface area (SV/SA) of the facility and depth by 25% could match the satisfactory performance efficiency achieved in the original design. The smaller SV/SA and depth would mean a less costly system, signifying the importance of optimization in designing LID systems.

  11. Auxiliary Deep Generative Models

    OpenAIRE

    Maaløe, Lars; Sønderby, Casper Kaae; Sønderby, Søren Kaae; Winther, Ole

    2016-01-01

    Deep generative models parameterized by neural networks have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in unsupervised and semi-supervised learning. We extend deep generative models with auxiliary variables which improves the variational approximation. The auxiliary variables leave the generative model unchanged but make the variational distribution more expressive. Inspired by the structure of the auxiliary variable we also propose a model with two stochastic layers and skip connections...

  12. Auxiliary Deep Generative Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maaløe, Lars; Sønderby, Casper Kaae; Sønderby, Søren Kaae;

    2016-01-01

    Deep generative models parameterized by neural networks have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in unsupervised and semi-supervised learning. We extend deep generative models with auxiliary variables which improves the variational approximation. The auxiliary variables leave...... the generative model unchanged but make the variational distribution more expressive. Inspired by the structure of the auxiliary variable we also propose a model with two stochastic layers and skip connections. Our findings suggest that more expressive and properly specified deep generative models converge...

  13. Modelling runoff at the plot scale taking into account rainfall partitioning by vegetation: application to stemflow of banana (Musa spp. plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y.-M. Cabidoche

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall partitioning by vegetation modifies the intensity of rainwater reaching the ground, which affects runoff generation. Incident rainfall is intercepted by the plant canopy and then redistributed into throughfall and stemflow. Rainfall intensities at the soil surface are therefore not spatially uniform, generating local variations of runoff production that are disregarded in runoff models. The aim of this paper was to model runoff at the plot scale, accounting for rainfall partitioning by vegetation in the case of plants concentrating rainwater at the plant foot and promoting stemflow. We developed a lumped modelling approach, including a stemflow function that divided the plot into two compartments: one compartment including stemflow and the related water pathways and one compartment for the rest of the plot. This stemflow function was coupled with a production function and a transfer function to simulate a flood hydrograph using the MHYDAS model. Calibrated parameters were a "stemflow coefficient", which compartmented the plot; the saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks, which controls infiltration and runoff; and the two parameters of the diffusive wave equation. We tested our model on a banana plot of 3000 m2 on permeable Andosol (mean Ks=75 mm h−1 under tropical rainfalls, in Guadeloupe (FWI. Runoff simulations without and with the stemflow function were performed and compared to 18 flood events from 10 to 140 rainfall mm depth. Modelling results showed that the stemflow function improved the calibration of hydrographs according to the error criteria on volume and on peakflow, to the Nash and Sutcliffe coefficient, and to the root mean square error. This was particularly the case for low flows observed during residual rainfall, for which the stemflow function allowed runoff to be simulated for rainfall intensities lower than the Ks measured at the soil surface. This approach also allowed us to take into account the experimental data

  14. Modelling runoff at the plot scale taking into account rainfall partitioning by vegetation: application to stemflow of banana (Musa spp.) plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlier, J.-B.; Moussa, R.; Cattan, P.; Cabidoche, Y.-M.; Voltz, M.

    2009-11-01

    Rainfall partitioning by vegetation modifies the intensity of rainwater reaching the ground, which affects runoff generation. Incident rainfall is intercepted by the plant canopy and then redistributed into throughfall and stemflow. Rainfall intensities at the soil surface are therefore not spatially uniform, generating local variations of runoff production that are disregarded in runoff models. The aim of this paper was to model runoff at the plot scale, accounting for rainfall partitioning by vegetation in the case of plants concentrating rainwater at the plant foot and promoting stemflow. We developed a lumped modelling approach, including a stemflow function that divided the plot into two compartments: one compartment including stemflow and the related water pathways and one compartment for the rest of the plot. This stemflow function was coupled with a production function and a transfer function to simulate a flood hydrograph using the MHYDAS model. Calibrated parameters were a "stemflow coefficient", which compartmented the plot; the saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), which controls infiltration and runoff; and the two parameters of the diffusive wave equation. We tested our model on a banana plot of 3000 m2 on permeable Andosol (mean Ks=75 mm h-1) under tropical rainfalls, in Guadeloupe (FWI). Runoff simulations without and with the stemflow function were performed and compared to 18 flood events from 10 to 140 rainfall mm depth. Modelling results showed that the stemflow function improved the calibration of hydrographs according to the error criteria on volume and on peakflow, to the Nash and Sutcliffe coefficient, and to the root mean square error. This was particularly the case for low flows observed during residual rainfall, for which the stemflow function allowed runoff to be simulated for rainfall intensities lower than the Ks measured at the soil surface. This approach also allowed us to take into account the experimental data, without needing to

  15. Modelling pH, alkalinity and runoff in a lakeless forested basin in southern Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lepistoe, A.; Jaervi, T.; Seuna, P.

    1987-01-01

    The Swedish PULSE model, with the HBV model as the hydrological part, has been used for simulation of the pH and alkalinity of runoff. In Sweden the model has been applied with good results to forested basins that have lakes. In the present study the model was applied to a forested basin without lakes, in order to test its suitability in this case. The model was calibrated to a small (0.69 km{sup 2}) basin using a 12-year time period (1972-83;R{sup 2}=0.80 for runoff). Verification was carried out with data of the intensively monitored years 1984-85 (R{sup 2}=0.84 for runoff, R{sup 2}=0.71 for pH). The results show that the PULSE model can also be applied satisfactorily to basins without lakes. The simulation provides reference values fo use in destinguishing long term changes in the runoff water quality from natural short-term variations. 5 figures, 10 references. (author).

  16. A CN-Based Ensembled Hydrological Model for Enhanced Watershed Runoff Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Ajmal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A major structural inconsistency of the traditional curve number (CN model is its dependence on an unstable fixed initial abstraction, which normally results in sudden jumps in runoff estimation. Likewise, the lack of pre-storm soil moisture accounting (PSMA procedure is another inherent limitation of the model. To circumvent those problems, we used a variable initial abstraction after ensembling the traditional CN model and a French four-parameter (GR4J model to better quantify direct runoff from ungauged watersheds. To mimic the natural rainfall-runoff transformation at the watershed scale, our new parameterization designates intrinsic parameters and uses a simple structure. It exhibited more accurate and consistent results than earlier methods in evaluating data from 39 forest-dominated watersheds, both for small and large watersheds. In addition, based on different performance evaluation indicators, the runoff reproduction results show that the proposed model produced more consistent results for dry, normal, and wet watershed conditions than the other models used in this study.

  17. A dynamic continental runoff routing model applied to the last Northern Hemisphere deglaciation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Goelzer

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available We describe and evaluate a dynamical continental runoff routing model for the Northern Hemisphere that calculates the runoff pathways in response to topographic modifications due to changes in ice thickness and isostatic adjustment. The algorithm is based on the steepest gradient method and takes as simplifying assumption that depressions are filled at all times and water drains through the lowest outlet points. It also considers changes in water storage and lake drainage that become important in the presence of large ice dammed proglacial lakes. Although applicable to other scenarios as well, the model was conceived to study the routing of freshwater fluxes during the last Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. For that specific application we simulated the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets with an existing 3-D thermomechanical ice sheet model, which calculates changes in topography due to changes in ice cover and isostatic adjustment, as well as the evolution of freshwater fluxes resulting from surface ablation, iceberg calving and basal melt. The continental runoff model takes this input, calculates the drainage pathways and routes the freshwater fluxes to the surface grid points of an existing ocean model. This results in a chronology of temporally and spatially varying freshwater fluxes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present day. We analyse the dependence of the runoff routing to grid resolution and parameters of the isostatic adjustment module of the ice sheet model.

  18. A dynamic continental runoff routing model applied to the last Northern Hemisphere deglaciation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Goelzer

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available We describe and evaluate a dynamical continental runoff routing model for the Northern Hemisphere that calculates the runoff pathways in response to topographic modifications due to changes in ice thickness and isostatic adjustment. The algorithm is based on the steepest gradient method and takes as simplifying assumption that depressions are filled at all times and water drains through the lowest outlet points. It also considers changes in water storage and lake drainage in post-processing mode that become important in the presence of large ice dammed proglacial lakes. Although applicable to other scenarios as well, the model was conceived to study the routing of freshwater fluxes during the last Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. For that specific application we simulated the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets with an existing 3-D thermomechanical ice sheet model, which calculates changes in topography due to changes in ice cover and isostatic adjustment, as well as the evolution of freshwater fluxes resulting from surface ablation, iceberg calving and basal melt. The continental runoff model takes this input, calculates the drainage pathways and routes the freshwater fluxes to the surface grid points of an existing ocean model. This results in a chronology of temporally and spatially varying freshwater fluxes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present day. We analyse the dependence of the runoff routing to grid resolution and parameters of the isostatic adjustment module of the ice sheet model.

  19. A multi basin SWAT model analysis of runoff and sedimentation in the Blue Nile, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. M. Easton

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available A multi basin analysis of runoff and erosion in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia was conducted to elucidate sources of runoff and sediment. Erosion is arguably the most critical problem in the Blue Nile Basin, as it limits agricultural productivity in Ethiopia, degrades benthos in the Nile, and results in sedimentation of dams in downstream countries. A modified version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was developed to predict runoff and sediment losses from the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin. The model simulates saturation excess runoff from the landscape using a simple daily water balance coupled to a topographic wetness index in ways that are consistent with observed runoff processes in the basin. The spatial distribution of landscape erosion is thus simulated more correctly. The model was parameterized in a nested design for flow at eight and sediment at three locations in the basin. Subbasins ranged in size from 1.3 to 174 000 km2, and interestingly, the partitioning of runoff and infiltrating flow could be predicted by topographic information. Model predictions showed reasonable accuracy (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiencies ranged from 0.53–0.92 with measured data across all sites except Kessie, where the water budget could not be closed; however, the timing of flow was well captured. Runoff losses increased with rainfall during the monsoonal season and were greatest from areas with shallow soils and large contributing areas. Analysis of model results indicate that upland landscape erosion dominated sediment delivery to the main stem of the Blue Nile in the early part of the growing season when tillage occurs and before the soil was wetted up and plant cover was established. Once plant cover was established in mid August landscape erosion was negligible and sediment export was dominated by channel processes and re-suspension of landscape sediment deposited early in the growing season. These results imply that targeting small

  20. 2D Flood Modelling Using Advanced Terrain Analysis Techniques And A Fully Continuous DEM-Based Rainfall-Runoff Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nardi, F.; Grimaldi, S.; Petroselli, A.

    2012-12-01

    Remotely sensed Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), largely available at high resolution, and advanced terrain analysis techniques built in Geographic Information Systems (GIS), provide unique opportunities for DEM-based hydrologic and hydraulic modelling in data-scarce river basins paving the way for flood mapping at the global scale. This research is based on the implementation of a fully continuous hydrologic-hydraulic modelling optimized for ungauged basins with limited river flow measurements. The proposed procedure is characterized by a rainfall generator that feeds a continuous rainfall-runoff model producing flow time series that are routed along the channel using a bidimensional hydraulic model for the detailed representation of the inundation process. The main advantage of the proposed approach is the characterization of the entire physical process during hydrologic extreme events of channel runoff generation, propagation, and overland flow within the floodplain domain. This physically-based model neglects the need for synthetic design hyetograph and hydrograph estimation that constitute the main source of subjective analysis and uncertainty of standard methods for flood mapping. Selected case studies show results and performances of the proposed procedure as respect to standard event-based approaches.

  1. Simulating pesticide transport in urbanized catchments: a new spatially-distributed dynamic pesticide runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Ting; Seuntjens, Piet; van Griensven, Ann; Bronders, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Urban areas can significantly contribute to pesticide contamination in surface water. However, pesticide behaviours in urban areas, particularly on hard surfaces, are far less studied than those in agricultural areas. Pesticide application on hard surfaces (e.g. roadsides and walkways) is of particular concern due to the high imperviousness and therefore high pesticide runoff potential. Experimental studies have shown that pesticide behaviours on and interactions with hard surfaces are important factors controlling the pesticide runoff potential, and therefore the magnitude and timing of peak concentrations in surface water. We conceptualized pesticide behaviours on hard surfaces and incorporated the conceptualization into a new pesticide runoff model. The pesticide runoff model was implemented in a catchment hydrological model WetSpa-Python (Water and Energy Transfer between Soil, Plants and Atmosphere, Python version). The conceptualization for pesticide processes on hard surfaces accounts for the differences in pesticide behaviour on different hard surfaces. Four parameters are used to describe the partitioning and wash-off of each pesticide on hard surfaces. We tested the conceptualization using experimental dataset for five pesticides on two types of hard surfaces, namely concrete and asphalt. The conceptualization gave good performance in accounting for the wash-off pattern for the modelled pesticides and surfaces, according to quantitative evaluations using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and percent bias. The resulting pesticide runoff model WetSpa-PST (WetSpa for PeSTicides) can simulate pesticides and their metabolites at the catchment scale. Overall, it includes four groups of pesticide processes, namely pesticide application, pesticide interception by plant foliage, pesticide processes on land surfaces (including partitioning, degradation and wash-off on hard surface; partitioning, dissipation, infiltration and runoff in soil) and pesticide processes in

  2. Comparison of several climate indices as inputs in modelling of the Baltic Sea runoff

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanninen, J.; Vuorinen, I. [Turku Univ. (Finland). Archipelaco Research Inst.], e-mail: jari.hanninen@utu.fi

    2012-11-01

    Using Transfer function (TF) models, we have earlier presented a chain of events between changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their oceanographical and ecological consequences in the Baltic Sea. Here we tested whether other climate indices as inputs would improve TF models, and our understanding of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Besides NAO, the predictors were the Arctic Oscillation (AO), sea-level air pressures at Iceland (SLP), and wind speeds at Hoburg (Gotland). All indices produced good TF models when the total riverine runoff to the Baltic Sea was used as a modelling basis. AO was not applicable in all study areas, showing a delay of about half a year between climate and runoff events, connected with freezing and melting time of ice and snow in the northern catchment area of the Baltic Sea. NAO appeared to be most useful modelling tool as its area of applicability was the widest of the tested indices, and the time lag between climate and runoff events was the shortest. SLP and Hoburg wind speeds showed largely same results as NAO, but with smaller areal applicability. Thus AO and NAO were both mostly contributing to the general understanding of climate control of runoff events in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. (orig.)

  3. Chlorpyrifos and atrazine removal from runoff by vegetated filter strips: experiments and predictive modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poletika, N N; Coody, P N; Fox, G A; Sabbagh, G J; Dolder, S C; White, J

    2009-01-01

    Runoff volume and flow concentration are hydrological factors that limit effectiveness of vegetated filter strips (VFS) in removing pesticides from surface runoff. Empirical equations that predict VFS pesticide effectiveness based solely on physical characteristics are insufficient on the event scale because they do not completely account for hydrological processes. This research investigated the effect of drainage area ratio (i.e., the ratio of field area to VFS area) and flow concentration (i.e., uniform versus concentrated flow) on pesticide removal efficiency of a VFS and used these data to provide further field verification of a recently proposed numerical/empirical modeling procedure for predicting removal efficiency under variable flow conditions. Runoff volumes were used to simulate drainage area ratios of 15:1 and 30:1. Flow concentration was investigated based on size of the VFS by applying artificial runoff to 10% of the plot width (i.e., concentrated flow) or the full plot width (i.e., uniform flow). Artificial runoff was metered into 4.6-m long VFS plots for 90 min after a simulated rainfall of 63 mm applied over 2 h. The artificial runoff contained sediment and was dosed with chlorpyrifos and atrazine. Pesticide removal efficiency of VFS for uniform flow conditions (59% infiltration; 88% sediment removal) was 85% for chlorpyrifos and 62% for atrazine. Flow concentration reduced removal efficiencies regardless of drainage area ratio (i.e., 16% infiltration, 31% sediment removal, 21% chlorpyrifos removal, and 12% atrazine removal). Without calibration, the predictive modeling based on the integrated VFSMOD and empirical hydrologic-based pesticide trapping efficiency equation predicted atrazine and chlorpyrifos removal efficiency under uniform and concentrated flow conditions. Consideration for hydrological processes, as opposed to statistical relationships based on buffer physical characteristics, is required to adequately predict VFS pesticide trapping

  4. Modelling urban rainfall-runoff responses using an experimental, two-tiered physical modelling environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Daniel; Pattison, Ian; Yu, Dapeng

    2016-04-01

    Surface water (pluvial) flooding occurs when rainwater from intense precipitation events is unable to infiltrate into the subsurface or drain via natural or artificial drainage channels. Surface water flooding poses a serious hazard to urban areas across the world, with the UK's perceived risk appearing to have increased in recent years due to surface water flood events seeming more severe and frequent. Surface water flood risk currently accounts for 1/3 of all UK flood risk, with approximately two million people living in urban areas at risk of a 1 in 200-year flood event. Research often focuses upon using numerical modelling techniques to understand the extent, depth and severity of actual or hypothetical flood scenarios. Although much research has been conducted using numerical modelling, field data available for model calibration and validation is limited due to the complexities associated with data collection in surface water flood conditions. Ultimately, the data which numerical models are based upon is often erroneous and inconclusive. Physical models offer a novel, alternative and innovative environment to collect data within, creating a controlled, closed system where independent variables can be altered independently to investigate cause and effect relationships. A physical modelling environment provides a suitable platform to investigate rainfall-runoff processes occurring within an urban catchment. Despite this, physical modelling approaches are seldom used in surface water flooding research. Scaled laboratory experiments using a 9m2, two-tiered 1:100 physical model consisting of: (i) a low-cost rainfall simulator component able to simulate consistent, uniformly distributed (>75% CUC) rainfall events of varying intensity, and; (ii) a fully interchangeable, modular plot surface have been conducted to investigate and quantify the influence of a number of terrestrial and meteorological factors on overland flow and rainfall-runoff patterns within a modelled

  5. Multiobjective training of artificial neural networks for rainfall-runoff modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Vos, N.J.; Rientjes, T.H.M.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents results on the application of various optimization algorithms for the training of artificial neural network rainfall-runoff models. Multilayered feed-forward networks for forecasting discharge from two mesoscale catchments in different climatic regions have been developed for thi

  6. Multiobjective training of artificial neural networks for rainfall-runoff modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Vos, N.J.; Rientjes, T.H.M.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents results on the application of various optimization algorithms for the training of artificial neural network rainfall-runoff models. Multilayered feed-forward networks for forecasting discharge from two mesoscale catchments in different climatic regions have been developed for

  7. Impacts of Noah model physics on catchment-scale runoff simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zheng, D.; Velde, van der R.; Su, Z.; Wen, J.; Wang, X.; Booij, M.J.; Hoekstra, A.Y.; Lv, S.; Ek, M.B.

    2016-01-01

    Noah model physics options validated for the source region of the Yellow River (SRYR) are applied to investigate their ability in reproducing runoff at the catchment scale. Three sets of augmentations are implemented affecting descriptions of (i) turbulent and soil heat transport (Noah-H), (ii) soil

  8. Phytoremediation of nutrient polluted stormwater runoff: water hyacinth as a model plant

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fox, L.J.

    2009-01-01

    Het doel van het in dit proefschrift beschreven onderzoek was om te verkennen in hoeverre fytoremediatie met behulp van waterplanten kon beheersen en de waterkwaliteit te verbeterenPhytoremediation of nutriënt polluted stormwater runoff using water hyacinth as a model plant was explored in greenhous

  9. [Generation mechanism of woodland runoff and sediment on Loess Plateau under hypo-rainfall--a case study of artificial P. tabulaeformis and secondary natural P. dadidiana stands].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Chengzhong; Shangguan, Zhouping

    2005-09-01

    Based on the long-term observation and from the viewpoints of water balance and runoff-and sediment generation, this paper studied the generation processes of runoff and sediment on two typical woodlands, artificial P. tabulaeformis and secondary natural P. dadidiana, and uncultivated slope-land in Loess Plateau under hypo-rainfall. The results showed that within the range of 5.0 - 50.0 mm rainfall, the total interception of canopy and litter was 15.45 % - 56.80 % for P. tabulaeformis and 20.56% - 47.81% for P. dadidiana, and decreased with increasing rainfall. Woodlands had a higher soil water infiltration capacity than uncultivated slope-land, especially in 0-20 cm soil layer. Both the two woodlands did not generate runoff under regular rainfall. Under the assumed rainfall of 2.5 mm x min(-1) intensity and 30 min duration, P. dadidiana stand did not produce runoff, but the runoff velocity and sediment-carrying capacity of uncultivated slope-land were 23.5 times, and runoff shearing stress and energy were 8 times as much as P. tabulaeformis stand. The runoff-and sediment generation on P. tabulaeformis stand decreased by 87.6% and 99.4%, respectively, compared with those on uncultivated slopeland, which was well accorded with the average observed value in runoff plots during 1988 - 2000. The theoretical analysis on the generation mechanism of woodland runoff and sediment may be effective to evaluate the benefits of forest in soil and water conservation.

  10. The effect of GCM biases on global runoff simulations of a land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadimitriou, Lamprini V.; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Grillakis, Manolis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.

    2017-09-01

    Global climate model (GCM) outputs feature systematic biases that render them unsuitable for direct use by impact models, especially for hydrological studies. To deal with this issue, many bias correction techniques have been developed to adjust the modelled variables against observations, focusing mainly on precipitation and temperature. However, most state-of-the-art hydrological models require more forcing variables, in addition to precipitation and temperature, such as radiation, humidity, air pressure, and wind speed. The biases in these additional variables can hinder hydrological simulations, but the effect of the bias of each variable is unexplored. Here we examine the effect of GCM biases on historical runoff simulations for each forcing variable individually, using the JULES land surface model set up at the global scale. Based on the quantified effect, we assess which variables should be included in bias correction procedures. To this end, a partial correction bias assessment experiment is conducted, to test the effect of the biases of six climate variables from a set of three GCMs. The effect of the bias of each climate variable individually is quantified by comparing the changes in simulated runoff that correspond to the bias of each tested variable. A methodology for the classification of the effect of biases in four effect categories (ECs), based on the magnitude and sensitivity of runoff changes, is developed and applied. Our results show that, while globally the largest changes in modelled runoff are caused by precipitation and temperature biases, there are regions where runoff is substantially affected by and/or more sensitive to radiation and humidity. Global maps of bias ECs reveal the regions mostly affected by the bias of each variable. Based on our findings, for global-scale applications, bias correction of radiation and humidity, in addition to that of precipitation and temperature, is advised. Finer spatial-scale information is also provided

  11. Rainfall runoff modelling of the Upper Ganga and Brahmaputra basins using PERSiST.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Futter, M N; Whitehead, P G; Sarkar, S; Rodda, H; Crossman, J

    2015-06-01

    There are ongoing discussions about the appropriate level of complexity and sources of uncertainty in rainfall runoff models. Simulations for operational hydrology, flood forecasting or nutrient transport all warrant different levels of complexity in the modelling approach. More complex model structures are appropriate for simulations of land-cover dependent nutrient transport while more parsimonious model structures may be adequate for runoff simulation. The appropriate level of complexity is also dependent on data availability. Here, we use PERSiST; a simple, semi-distributed dynamic rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit to simulate flows in the Upper Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. We present two sets of simulations driven by single time series of daily precipitation and temperature using simple (A) and complex (B) model structures based on uniform and hydrochemically relevant land covers respectively. Models were compared based on ensembles of Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) statistics. Equifinality was observed for parameters but not for model structures. Model performance was better for the more complex (B) structural representations than for parsimonious model structures. The results show that structural uncertainty is more important than parameter uncertainty. The ensembles of BIC statistics suggested that neither structural representation was preferable in a statistical sense. Simulations presented here confirm that relatively simple models with limited data requirements can be used to credibly simulate flows and water balance components needed for nutrient flux modelling in large, data-poor basins.

  12. A current precipitation index-based model for continuous daily runoff simulation in seasonally snow covered sub-arctic catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanegbu, Justice O.; Marttila, Hannu; Ronkanen, Anna-Kaisa; Kløve, Bjørn

    2017-02-01

    A new precipitation index-based model, which includes a snow accumulation and melt component, has been developed to simulate hydrology in high latitude catchments. The model couples a point snowmelt model with a current precipitation index (CPI) formulation to simulate continuous daily runoff from catchments with seasonal snow cover. A new runoff conversion factor: CT and Lf, threshold flow factor ThQ and runoff transformation function Maxbas were introduced into the CPI equation, which converts and transforms the routed daily CPI into daily runoff and maintains the daily base flow in the catchment. The model was developed using twelve sub-arctic boreal catchments located above and below the Arctic Circle in northern Finland, representing a region with considerable seasonal snow cover. The results showed that the model can adequately simulate and produce the dynamics of daily runoff from catchments where the underlying physical conditions are not known. An open-access Excel-based model is provided with this paper for daily runoff simulations. The model can be used to estimate runoff in sub-arctic regions where little data is typically available but significant changes in climate are expected, with considerable shifts in the amount and timing of snowmelt and runoff.

  13. The application of an analytical probabilistic model for estimating the rainfall-runoff reductions achieved using a rainwater harvesting system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyoungjun; Han, Mooyoung; Lee, Ju Young

    2012-05-01

    Rainwater harvesting systems cannot only supplement on-site water needs, but also reduce water runoff and lessen downstream flooding. In this study, an existing analytic model for estimating the runoff in urban areas is modified to provide a more economical and effective model that can be used for describing rainwater harvesting. This model calculates the rainfall-runoff reduction by taking into account the catchment, storage tank, and infiltration facility of a water harvesting system; this calculation is based on the water balance equation, and the cumulative distribution, probability density, and average rainfall-runoff functions. This model was applied to a water harvesting system at the Seoul National University in order to verify its practicality. The derived model was useful for evaluating runoff reduction and for designing the storage tank capacity.

  14. Modeling Rainfall-Runoff Dynamics in Tropical, Urban Socio-Hydrological Systems: Green Infrastructure and Variable Precipitation Interception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nytch, C. J.; Meléndez-Ackerman, E. J.

    2014-12-01

    There is a pressing need to generate spatially-explicit models of rainfall-runoff dynamics in the urban humid tropics that can characterize flow pathways and flood magnitudes in response to erratic precipitation events. To effectively simulate stormwater runoff processes at multiple scales, complex spatio-temporal parameters such as rainfall, evapotranspiration, and antecedent soil moisture conditions must be accurately represented, in addition to uniquely urban factors including stormwater conveyance structures and connectivity between green and gray infrastructure elements. In heavily urbanized San Juan, Puerto Rico, stream flashiness and frequent flooding are major issues, yet still lacking is a hydrological analysis that models the generation and movement of fluvial and pluvial stormwater through the watershed. Our research employs a novel and multifaceted approach to dealing with this problem that integrates 1) field-based rainfall interception and infiltration methodologies to quantify the hydrologic functions of natural and built infrastructure in San Juan; 2) remote sensing analysis to produce a fine-scale typology of green and gray cover types in the city and determine patterns of spatial distribution and connectivity; 3) assessment of precipitation and streamflow variability at local and basin-wide scales using satellite and radar precipitation estimates in concert with rainfall and stream gauge point data and participatory flood mapping; 4) simulation of historical, present-day, and future stormwater runoff scenarios with a fully distributed hydrologic model that couples diverse components of urban socio-hydrological systems from formal and informal knowledge sources; and 5) bias and uncertainty analysis of parameters and model structure within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. Preliminary results from the rainfall interception study suggest that canopy structure and leaf area index of different tree species contribute to variable throughfall and

  15. Modeling rainfall-runoff processes using smoothed particle hydrodynamics with mass-varied particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Tsang-Jung; Chang, Yu-Sheng; Chang, Kao-Hua

    2016-12-01

    In this study, a novel treatment of adopting mass-varied particles in smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) is proposed to solve the shallow water equations (SWEs) and model the rainfall-runoff process. Since SWEs have depth-averaged or cross-section-averaged features, there is no sufficient dimension to add rainfall particles. Thus, SPH-SWE methods have focused on modeling discharge flows in open channels or floodplains without rainfall. With the proposed treatment, the application of SPH-SWEs can be extended to rainfall-runoff processes in watersheds. First, the numerical procedures associated with using mass-varied particles in SPH-SWEs are introduced and derived. Then, numerical validations are conducted for three benchmark problems, including uniform rainfall over a 1D flat sloping channel, nonuniform rain falling over a 1D three-slope channel with different rainfall durations, and uniform rainfall over a 2D plot with complex topography. The simulated results indicate that the proposed treatment can avoid the necessity of a source term function of mass variation, and no additional particles are needed for the increase of mass. Rainfall-runoff processes can be well captured in the presence of hydraulic jumps, dry/wet bed flows, and supercritical/subcritical/transcritical flows. The proposed treatment using mass-varied particles was proven robust and reliable for modeling rainfall-runoff processes. It can provide a new alternative for investigating practical hydrological problems.

  16. Distributed generation systems model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barklund, C.R.

    1994-12-31

    A slide presentation is given on a distributed generation systems model developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, and its application to a situation within the Idaho Power Company`s service territory. The objectives of the work were to develop a screening model for distributed generation alternatives, to develop a better understanding of distributed generation as a utility resource, and to further INEL`s understanding of utility concerns in implementing technological change.

  17. The immediate effectiveness of barley straw mulch in reducing soil erodibility and surface runoff generation in Mediterranean vineyards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prosdocimi, Massimo; Jordán, Antonio; Tarolli, Paolo; Keesstra, Saskia; Novara, Agata; Cerdà, Artemi

    2016-03-15

    Soil and water loss in agriculture is a major problem throughout the world, and especially in Mediterranean areas. Non-conservation agricultural practices have further aggravated the situation, especially in vineyards, which are affected by one of the highest rates of soil loss among cultivated lands. Therefore, it is necessary to find the right soil practices for more sustainable viticulture. In this regard, straw mulching has proven to be effective in other crop and fire affected soils, but, nonetheless, little research has been carried out in vineyards. This research tests the effect of barley straw mulching on soil erosion and surface runoff on vineyards in Eastern Spain where the soil and water losses are non-sustainable. An experiment was setup using rainfall simulation tests at 55 mm h(-1) over 1h on forty paired plots of 0.24 m(2): twenty bare and twenty straw covered. Straw cover varied from 48 to 90% with a median value of 59% as a result of the application of 75 g of straw per m(2). The use of straw mulch resulted in delayed ponding and runoff generation and, as a consequence, the median water loss decreased from 52.59 to 39.27% of the total rainfall. The straw cover reduced the median sediment concentration in runoff from 9.8 to 3.0 g L(-1) and the median total sediment detached from 70.34 to 15.62 g per experiment. The median soil erosion rate decreased from 2.81 to 0.63 Mg ha(-1)h(-1) due to the straw mulch protection. Straw mulch is very effective in reducing soil erodibility and surface runoff, and this benefit was achieved immediately after the application of the straw.

  18. Performance and Probabilistic Verification of Regional Parameter Estimates for Conceptual Rainfall-runoff Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franz, K.; Hogue, T.; Barco, J.

    2007-12-01

    Identification of appropriate parameter sets for simulation of streamflow in ungauged basins has become a significant challenge for both operational and research hydrologists. This is especially difficult in the case of conceptual models, when model parameters typically must be "calibrated" or adjusted to match streamflow conditions in specific systems (i.e. some of the parameters are not directly observable). This paper addresses the performance and uncertainty associated with transferring conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameters between basins within large-scale ecoregions. We use the National Weather Service's (NWS) operational hydrologic model, the SACramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model. A Multi-Step Automatic Calibration Scheme (MACS), using the Shuffle Complex Evolution (SCE), is used to optimize SAC-SMA parameters for a group of watersheds with extensive hydrologic records from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) database. We then explore "hydroclimatic" relationships between basins to facilitate regionalization of parameters for an established ecoregion in the southeastern United States. The impact of regionalized parameters is evaluated via standard model performance statistics as well as through generation of hindcasts and probabilistic verification procedures to evaluate streamflow forecast skill. Preliminary results show climatology ("climate neighbor") to be a better indicator of transferability than physical similarities or proximity ("nearest neighbor"). The mean and median of all the parameters within the ecoregion are the poorest choice for the ungauged basin. The choice of regionalized parameter set affected the skill of the ensemble streamflow hindcasts, however, all parameter sets show little skill in forecasts after five weeks (i.e. climatology is as good an indicator of future streamflows). In addition, the optimum parameter set changed seasonally, with the "nearest neighbor" showing the highest skill in the

  19. Estimation of parameters in a distributed precipitation-runoff model for Norway

    OpenAIRE

    Beldring, S.; Engeland, K; Roald, L. A.; Sælthun, N. R.; A. Voksø

    2003-01-01

    A distributed version of the HBV-model using 1 km2 grid cells and daily time step was used to simulate runoff from the entire land surface of Norway for the period 1961-1990. The model was sensitive to changes in small scale properties of the land surface and the climatic input data, through explicit representation of differences between model elements, and by implicit consideration of sub-grid variations in moisture status. A geogra...

  20. The role of observation uncertainty in the calibration of hydrologic rainfall-runoff models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Ghizzoni

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Hydrologic rainfall-runoff models are usually calibrated with reference to a limited number of recorded flood events, for which rainfall and runoff measurements are available. In this framework, model's parameters consistency depends on the number of both events and hydrograph points used for calibration, and on measurements reliability. Recently, to make users aware of application limits, major attention has been devoted to the estimation of uncertainty in hydrologic modelling. Here a simple numerical experiment is proposed, that allows the analysis of uncertainty in hydrologic rainfall-runoff modelling associated to both quantity and quality of available data.

    A distributed rainfall-runoff model based on geomorphologic concepts has been used. The experiment involves the analysis of an ensemble of model runs, and its overall set up holds if the model is to be applied in different catchments and climates, or even if a different hydrologic model is used. With reference to a set of 100 synthetic rainfall events characterized by a given rainfall volume, the effect of uncertainty in parameters calibration is studied. An artificial truth – perfect observation – is created by using the model in a known configuration. An external source of uncertainty is introduced by assuming realistic, i.e. uncertain, discharge observations to calibrate the model. The range of parameters' values able to "reproduce" the observation is studied. Finally, the model uncertainty is evaluated and discussed. The experiment gives useful indications about the number of both events and data points needed for a careful and stable calibration of a specific model, applied in a given climate and catchment. Moreover, an insight on the expected and maximum error in flood peak discharge simulations is given: errors ranging up to 40% are to be expected if parameters are calibrated on insufficient data sets.

  1. Loss Modeling with a Data-Driven Approach in Event-Based Rainfall-Runoff Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, L. H. C.

    2012-04-01

    Mathematical models require the estimation of rainfall abstractions for accurate predictions of runoff. Although loss models such as the constant loss and exponential loss models are commonly used, these methods are based on simplified assumptions of the physical process. A new approach based on the data driven paradigm to estimate rainfall abstractions is proposed in this paper. The proposed data driven model, based on the artificial neural network (ANN) does not make any assumptions on the loss behavior. The estimated discharge from a physically-based model, obtained from the kinematic wave (KW) model assuming zero losses, was used as the only input to the ANN. The output is the measured discharge. Thus, the ANN functions as a black-box loss model. Two sets of data were analyzed for this study. The first dataset consists of rainfall and runoff data, measured from an artificial catchment (area = 25 m2) comprising two overland planes (slope = 11%), 25m long, transversely inclined towards a rectangular channel (slope = 2%) which conveyed the flow, recorded using calibrated weigh tanks, to the outlet. Two rain gauges, each placed 6.25 m from either ends of the channel, were used to record rainfall. Data for six storm events over the period between October 2002 and December 2002 were analyzed. The second dataset was obtained from the Upper Bukit Timah catchment (area = 6.4 km2) instrumented with two rain gauges and a flow measuring station. A total of six events recorded between November 1987 and July 1988 were selected for this study. The runoff predicted by the ANN was compared with the measured runoff. In addition, results from KW models developed for both the catchments were used as a benchmark. The KW models were calibrated assuming the loss rate for an average event for each of the datasets. The results from both the ANN and KW models agreed well with the runoff measured from the artificial catchment. The KW model is expected to perform well since the catchment

  2. Multiscale soil moisture measurement for mapping surface runoff generation on torrential headwater catchments (Draix-Bléone field observatory, South Alps, France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florian, Mallet; Vincent, Marc; Johnny, Douvinet; Philippe, Rossello; Bouteiller Caroline, Le; Jean-Philippe, Malet; Julien, Gance

    2015-04-01

    soilwater flow of from the surface to - 30 cm. Another distributed approach will be carried out from a measurement of cosmic neutrons mitigation (Cosmic ray sensor) to estimate a soil moisture averaged value over 40 ha (Zreda et al., 2012). Finally, the smallest scale (slope and catchment) will be approached using remote sensing with a drone and/or satellite imagery (IR, passive and active microwave). This concatenation of scales with different combinations of time steps should enable us to better understand the hydrological dynamics in torrential environments. It aims at mapping the stormflow generation on a catchment at the flood scale and defining the main determinants of surface runoff. These results may contribute to the improvement of runoff simulation and flood prediction. References : Uhlenbrook S., J.J. McDonnell and C. Leibundgut, 2003. Preface: Runoff generation implications for river basin modelling. Hydrological Processes, Special Issue, 17: 197-198. Andrew W. Western, Sen-Lin Zhou, Rodger B. Grayson, Thomas A. MacMahon, Günter Blöshl, David J. Wilson, 2004. Spatial correlation of soil moisture in small catchments and its relationship to dominant spatial hydrological processes. Journal of Hydrology 286. Zreda, M., Shuttleworth WJ., Zeng X., Zweck C., Desilets D., Franz TE. et al., 2012. COSMOS: the COsmic-ray Soil Moisture Observing System. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16(11): 4079-4099.

  3. Highway runoff quality models for the protection of environmentally sensitive areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenouth, William R.; Gharabaghi, Bahram

    2016-11-01

    This paper presents novel highway runoff quality models using artificial neural networks (ANN) which take into account site-specific highway traffic and seasonal storm event meteorological factors to predict the event mean concentration (EMC) statistics and mean daily unit area load (MDUAL) statistics of common highway pollutants for the design of roadside ditch treatment systems (RDTS) to protect sensitive receiving environs. A dataset of 940 monitored highway runoff events from fourteen sites located in five countries (Canada, USA, Australia, New Zealand, and China) was compiled and used to develop ANN models for the prediction of highway runoff suspended solids (TSS) seasonal EMC statistical distribution parameters, as well as the MDUAL statistics for four different heavy metal species (Cu, Zn, Cr and Pb). TSS EMCs are needed to estimate the minimum required removal efficiency of the RDTS needed in order to improve highway runoff quality to meet applicable standards and MDUALs are needed to calculate the minimum required capacity of the RDTS to ensure performance longevity.

  4. Effects of projected climate change on the glacier and runoff generation in the Naryn River Basin, Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Rong; Luo, Yi; Zuo, Qiting; Sun, Lin

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is a major environmental concern and the melting processes of the glaciers and snowpacks are sensitive to climate change. The ultimate effect of the future changes on the glacier and hydrology is unclear and poorly investigated for Central Asia. Here, we use results from the latest ensemble of climate models in combination with a glacier-enhanced Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model to assess the hydrological impact of climate change in the Naryn River Basin, Central Asia. Results indicate that small glaciers suffer from larger relative area losses than large glaciers. Only 8% of the originally glaciated area for small glaciers will retain glaciers by 2100 for RCP8.5. The rate of area retreat for small glaciers (with an area change in precipitation, snowmelt and higher evapotranspiration. Glacier melt is mainly derived by future temperature changes, while the runoff and snowmelt component are determined by future precipitation. The timing of peak runoff is advancing about one month as a result of earlier snowmelt due to the warming temperature. Runoff is projected to increase during the spring and decrease for the summer season for the future periods. Thus water availability on the time will likely undergo significant changes.

  5. Assimilation of satellite information in a snowpack model to improve characterization of snow cover for runoff simulation and forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. S. Kuchment

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available A new technique for constructing spatial fields of snow characteristics for runoff simulation and forecasting is presented. The technique incorporates satellite land surface monitoring data and available ground-based hydrometeorological measurements in a physical based snowpack model. The snowpack model provides simulation of temporal changes of the snow depth, density and water equivalent (SWE, accounting for snow melt, sublimation, refreezing melt water and snow metamorphism processes with a special focus on forest cover effects. The model was first calibrated against available ground-based snow measurements and then was applied to calculate the spatial distribution of snow characteristics using satellite data and interpolated ground-based meteorological data. The remote sensing data used in the model consist of products derived from observations of MODIS and AMSR-E instruments onboard Terra and Aqua satellites. They include daily maps of snow cover, snow water equivalent (SWE, land surface temperature, and weekly maps of surface albedo. Maps of land cover classes and tree cover fraction derived from NOAA AVHRR were used to characterize the vegetation cover. The developed technique was tested over a study area of approximately 200 000 km2 located in the European part of Russia (56° N to 60° N, and 48° E to 54° E. The study area comprises the Vyatka River basin with the catchment area of 124 000 km2. The spatial distributions of SWE, obtained with the coupled model, as well as solely from satellite data were used as the inputs in a physically-based model of runoff generation to simulate runoff hydrographs on the Vyatka river for spring seasons of 2003, 2005. The comparison of simulated hydrographs with the observed ones has shown that suggested procedure gives a higher accuracy of snow cover spatial distribution representation and hydrograph simulations than the direct use of satellite SWE data.

  6. Assimilation of satellite information in a snowpack model to improve characterization of snow cover for runoff simulation and forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchment, L. S.; Romanov, P.; Gelfan, A. N.; Demidov, V. N.

    2009-08-01

    A new technique for constructing spatial fields of snow characteristics for runoff simulation and forecasting is presented. The technique incorporates satellite land surface monitoring data and available ground-based hydrometeorological measurements in a physical based snowpack model. The snowpack model provides simulation of temporal changes of the snow depth, density and water equivalent (SWE), accounting for snow melt, sublimation, refreezing melt water and snow metamorphism processes with a special focus on forest cover effects. The model was first calibrated against available ground-based snow measurements and then was applied to calculate the spatial distribution of snow characteristics using satellite data and interpolated ground-based meteorological data. The remote sensing data used in the model consist of products derived from observations of MODIS and AMSR-E instruments onboard Terra and Aqua satellites. They include daily maps of snow cover, snow water equivalent (SWE), land surface temperature, and weekly maps of surface albedo. Maps of land cover classes and tree cover fraction derived from NOAA AVHRR were used to characterize the vegetation cover. The developed technique was tested over a study area of approximately 200 000 km2 located in the European part of Russia (56° N to 60° N, and 48° E to 54° E). The study area comprises the Vyatka River basin with the catchment area of 124 000 km2. The spatial distributions of SWE, obtained with the coupled model, as well as solely from satellite data were used as the inputs in a physically-based model of runoff generation to simulate runoff hydrographs on the Vyatka river for spring seasons of 2003, 2005. The comparison of simulated hydrographs with the observed ones has shown that suggested procedure gives a higher accuracy of snow cover spatial distribution representation and hydrograph simulations than the direct use of satellite SWE data.

  7. Spatial sensitivity analysis of snow cover data in a distributed rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berezowski, T.; Nossent, J.; Chormański, J.; Batelaan, O.

    2015-04-01

    As the availability of spatially distributed data sets for distributed rainfall-runoff modelling is strongly increasing, more attention should be paid to the influence of the quality of the data on the calibration. While a lot of progress has been made on using distributed data in simulations of hydrological models, sensitivity of spatial data with respect to model results is not well understood. In this paper we develop a spatial sensitivity analysis method for spatial input data (snow cover fraction - SCF) for a distributed rainfall-runoff model to investigate when the model is differently subjected to SCF uncertainty in different zones of the model. The analysis was focussed on the relation between the SCF sensitivity and the physical and spatial parameters and processes of a distributed rainfall-runoff model. The methodology is tested for the Biebrza River catchment, Poland, for which a distributed WetSpa model is set up to simulate 2 years of daily runoff. The sensitivity analysis uses the Latin-Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT) algorithm, which employs different response functions for each spatial parameter representing a 4 × 4 km snow zone. The results show that the spatial patterns of sensitivity can be easily interpreted by co-occurrence of different environmental factors such as geomorphology, soil texture, land use, precipitation and temperature. Moreover, the spatial pattern of sensitivity under different response functions is related to different spatial parameters and physical processes. The results clearly show that the LH-OAT algorithm is suitable for our spatial sensitivity analysis approach and that the SCF is spatially sensitive in the WetSpa model. The developed method can be easily applied to other models and other spatial data.

  8. WEPP and ANN models for simulating soil loss and runoff in a semi-arid Mediterranean region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albaradeyia, Issa; Hani, Azzedine; Shahrour, Isam

    2011-09-01

    This paper presents the use of both the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) and the artificial neural network (ANN) for the prediction of runoff and soil loss in the central highland mountainous of the Palestinian territories. Analyses show that the soil erosion is highly dependent on both the rainfall depth and the rainfall event duration rather than on the rainfall intensity as mostly mentioned in the literature. The results obtained from the WEPP model for the soil loss and runoff disagree with the field data. The WEPP underestimates both the runoff and soil loss. Analyses conducted with the ANN agree well with the observation. In addition, the global network models developed using the data of all the land use type show a relatively unbiased estimation for both runoff and soil loss. The study showed that the ANN model could be used as a management tool for predicting runoff and soil loss.

  9. The sensitivity of catchment runoff models to rainfall data at different spatial scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Bell

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The sensitivity of catchment runoff models to rainfall is investigated at a variety of spatial scales using data from a dense raingauge network and weather radar. These data form part of the HYREX (HYdrological Radar EXperiment dataset. They encompass records from 49 raingauges over the 135 km2 Brue catchment in south-west England together with 2 and 5 km grid-square radar data. Separate rainfall time-series for the radar and raingauge data are constructed on 2, 5 and 10 km grids, and as catchment average values, at a 15 minute time-step. The sensitivity of the catchment runoff models to these grid scales of input data is evaluated on selected convective and stratiform rainfall events. Each rainfall time-series is used to produce an ensemble of modelled hydrographs in order to investigate this sensitivity. The distributed model is shown to be sensitive to the locations of the raingauges within the catchment and hence to the spatial variability of rainfall over the catchment. Runoff sensitivity is strongest during convective rainfall when a broader spread of modelled hydrographs results, with twice the variability of that arising from stratiform rain. Sensitivity to rainfall data and model resolution is explored and, surprisingly, best performance is obtained using a lower resolution of rainfall data and model. Results from the distributed catchment model, the Simple Grid Model, are compared with those obtained from a lumped model, the PDM. Performance from the distributed model is found to be only marginally better during stratiform rain (R2 of 0.922 compared to 0.911 but significantly better during convective rain (R2 of 0.953 compared to 0.909. The improved performance from the distributed model can, in part, be accredited to the excellence of the dense raingauge network which would not be the norm for operational flood warning systems. In the final part of the paper, the effect of rainfall resolution on the performance of the 2 km distributed

  10. Spatial sensitivity analysis of snow cover data in a distributed rainfall–runoff model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Berezowski

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available As the availability of spatially distributed data sets for distributed rainfall–runoff modelling is strongly growing, more attention should be paid to the influence of the quality of the data on the calibration. While a lot of progress has been made on using distributed data in simulations of hydrological models, sensitivity of spatial data with respect to model results is not well understood. In this paper we develop a spatial sensitivity analysis (SA method for snow cover fraction input data (SCF for a distributed rainfall–runoff model to investigate if the model is differently subjected to SCF uncertainty in different zones of the model. The analysis was focused on the relation between the SCF sensitivity and the physical, spatial parameters and processes of a distributed rainfall–runoff model. The methodology is tested for the Biebrza River catchment, Poland for which a distributed WetSpa model is setup to simulate two years of daily runoff. The SA uses the Latin-Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT algorithm, which uses different response functions for each 4 km × 4 km snow zone. The results show that the spatial patterns of sensitivity can be easily interpreted by co-occurrence of different environmental factors such as: geomorphology, soil texture, land-use, precipitation and temperature. Moreover, the spatial pattern of sensitivity under different response functions is related to different spatial parameters and physical processes. The results clearly show that the LH-OAT algorithm is suitable for the spatial sensitivity analysis approach and that the SCF is spatially sensitive in the WetSpa model.

  11. Auxiliary Deep Generative Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maaløe, Lars; Sønderby, Casper Kaae; Sønderby, Søren Kaae

    2016-01-01

    Deep generative models parameterized by neural networks have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in unsupervised and semi-supervised learning. We extend deep generative models with auxiliary variables which improves the variational approximation. The auxiliary variables leave...... the generative model unchanged but make the variational distribution more expressive. Inspired by the structure of the auxiliary variable we also propose a model with two stochastic layers and skip connections. Our findings suggest that more expressive and properly specified deep generative models converge...... faster with better results. We show state-of-the-art performance within semi-supervised learning on MNIST (0.96%), SVHN (16.61%) and NORB (9.40%) datasets....

  12. Auxiliary Deep Generative Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maaløe, Lars; Sønderby, Casper Kaae; Sønderby, Søren Kaae

    2016-01-01

    Deep generative models parameterized by neural networks have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in unsupervised and semi-supervised learning. We extend deep generative models with auxiliary variables which improves the variational approximation. The auxiliary variables leave...... the generative model unchanged but make the variational distribution more expressive. Inspired by the structure of the auxiliary variable we also propose a model with two stochastic layers and skip connections. Our findings suggest that more expressive and properly specified deep generative models converge...... faster with better results. We show state-of-the-art performance within semi-supervised learning on MNIST (0.96%), SVHN (16.61%) and NORB (9.40%) datasets....

  13. Energy balance and runoff modelling of glaciers in the Kongsfjord basin in northwestern Svalbard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, J.; Pramanik, A.; van Pelt, W.

    2016-12-01

    Glaciers and ice caps cover 36,000 Km2 or 60% of the land area of the Svalbard archipelago. Roughly 60% of the glaciated area drains to the ocean through tidewater glacier fronts. Runoff from tidewater glaciers is posited to have a significant impact on fjord circulation and thereby on fjord ecosystems. Ocean circulation modelling underway in the Kongsfjord system requires specification of the freshwater amounts contributed by both tidewater and land-terminating glaciers in its basin. The total basin area of Kongsfjord is 1850 km2. We use a coupled surface energy-balance and firn model (Van Pelt et al. 2015) to calculate mass balance and runoff from the Kongsfjord glaciers for the period 1969-2015. Meteorological data from the nearby station at Ny-Ålesund is used for climate forcing in the model domain, with mass balance data at four glaciers in the Kongsfjord watershed used to calibrate model parameters. Precipitation and temperature lapse rates are adjusted on the study glaciers through repeated model runs at mass balance stake locations to match observed and modelled surface mass balance. Long-term discharge measurement at two sites in this region are used to validate the modelled runoff. Spatial and temporal evolution of melt, refreezing and runoff are analyzed, along with the vertical evolution of subsurface conditions. Reference: Van Pelt, W.J.J. & J. Kohler. 2015. Modelling the long-term mass balance and firn evolution of glaciers around Kongsfjorden, Svalbard. J. Glaciol, 61(228), 731-744. Glaciers and ice caps cover 36,000 Km2 or 60% of the land area of the Svalbard archipelago. Roughly 60% of the glaciated area drains to the ocean through tidewater glacier fronts. Runoff from tidewater glaciers is posited to have a significant impact on fjord circulation and thereby on fjord ecosystems. Ocean circulation modelling underway in the Kongsfjord system requires specification of the freshwater amounts contributed by both tidewater and land-terminating glaciers

  14. Evaluating the impact of lower resolutions of digital elevation model on rainfall-runoff modeling for ungauged catchments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghumman, Abul Razzaq; Al-Salamah, Ibrahim Saleh; AlSaleem, Saleem Saleh; Haider, Husnain

    2017-02-01

    Geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) usually uses geomorphologic parameters of catchment estimated from digital elevation model (DEM) for rainfall-runoff modeling of ungauged watersheds with limited data. Higher resolutions (e.g., 5 or 10 m) of DEM play an important role in the accuracy of rainfall-runoff models; however, such resolutions are expansive to obtain and require much greater efforts and time for preparation of inputs. In this research, a modeling framework is developed to evaluate the impact of lower resolutions (i.e., 30 and 90 m) of DEM on the accuracy of Clark GIUH model. Observed rainfall-runoff data of a 202-km(2) catchment in a semiarid region was used to develop direct runoff hydrographs for nine rainfall events. Geographical information system was used to process both the DEMs. Model accuracy and errors were estimated by comparing the model results with the observed data. The study found (i) high model efficiencies greater than 90% for both the resolutions, and (ii) that the efficiency of Clark GIUH model does not significantly increase by enhancing the resolution of the DEM from 90 to 30 m. Thus, it is feasible to use lower resolutions (i.e., 90 m) of DEM in the estimation of peak runoff in ungauged catchments with relatively less efforts. Through sensitivity analysis (Monte Carlo simulations), the kinematic wave parameter and stream length ratio are found to be the most significant parameters in velocity and peak flow estimations, respectively; thus, they need to be carefully estimated for calculation of direct runoff in ungauged watersheds using Clark GIUH model.

  15. A stochastic space-time rainfall forecasting system for real time flow forecasting II: Application of SHETRAN and ARNO rainfall runoff models to the Brue catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Mellor

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Key issues involved in converting MTB ensemble forecasts of rainfall into ensemble forecasts of runoff are addressed. The physically-based distributed modelling system, SHETRAN, is parameterised for the Brue catchment, and used to assess the impact of averaging spatially variable MTB rainfall inputs on the accuracy of simulated runoff response. Averaging is found to have little impact for wet antecedent conditions and to lead to some underestimation of peak discharge under dry catchment conditions. The simpler ARNO modelling system is also parameterised for the Brue and SHETRAN and ARNO calibration and validation results are found to be similar. Ensemble forecasts of runoff generated using both SHETRAN and the simpler ARNO modelling system are compared. The ensemble is more spread out with the SHETRAN model, and a likely explanation is that the ARNO model introduces too much smoothing. Nevertheless, the forecasting performance of the simpler model could be adequate for flood warning purposes. Keywords: SHETRAN, ARNO, HYREX, rainfall-runoff model, Brue, real-time flow forecasting

  16. Applicability of open rainfall data to event-scale urban rainfall-runoff modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemi, Tero J.; Warsta, Lassi; Taka, Maija; Hickman, Brandon; Pulkkinen, Seppo; Krebs, Gerald; Moisseev, Dmitri N.; Koivusalo, Harri; Kokkonen, Teemu

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall-runoff simulations in urban environments require meteorological input data with high temporal and spatial resolutions. The availability of precipitation data is constantly increasing due to the shift towards more open data sharing. However, the applicability of such data for urban runoff assessments is often unknown. Here, the feasibility of Finnish Meteorological Institute's open rain gauge and open weather radar data as input sources was studied by conducting Storm Water Management Model simulations at a very small (33.5 ha) urban catchment in Helsinki, Finland. In addition to the open data sources, data were also available from two research gauges, one of them located on-site, and from a research radar. The results confirmed the importance of local precipitation measurements for urban rainfall-runoff simulations, implying the suitability of open gauge data to be largely dictated by the gauge's distance from the catchment. Performance of open radar data with 5 min and 1 km2 resolution was acceptable in terms of runoff reproduction, albeit peak flows were constantly and flow volumes often underestimated. Gauge adjustment and advection interpolation were found to improve the quality of the radar data, and at least gauge adjustment should be performed when open radar data are used. Finally, utilizing dual-polarization capabilities of radars has a potential to improve rainfall estimates for high intensity storms although more research is still needed.

  17. Investigating and predicting landslides using a rainfall-runoff model in Southern Norway

    OpenAIRE

    Kråbøl, Eline Haga

    2016-01-01

    Landslides are amongst the most destructive natural hazards, causing damage to infrastructures, such as roads, railways and houses, and can, in a worst-case scenario, take lives. By studying the effect and response of rainfall using the temporal and spatial distribution of the storage and discharge, a better understanding of landslide processes and a more detailed prediction can be possible. This study employs a parameter-parsimonious rainfall-runoff model, the Distance Distribution model (DD...

  18. Users guide for distributed routing rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawdy, D.R.; Schaake, John C.; Alley, William M.

    1978-01-01

    A computer program of a watershed model for routing urban flood discharges through a branched system of pipes or natural channels using rainfall as input has been developed and documented. The model combines soil-moisture-accounting and rainfall-excess components developed by Dawdy and others (1972) with the kinematic-wave routing method presented by Leclerc and Schaake (1973). (Woodard-USGS)

  19. Dynamic modelling of processes in rivers affected by precipitation runoff

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Judith L.

    1997-01-01

    In this thesis, models for the dynamics of oxygen and organic matter in receiving waters (such as rivers and creeks), which are affected by rain, are developed. A time series analysis framework is used, but presented with special emphasis on continuous time state space models. Also, the concept...

  20. Retrospective Analysis of Recent Flood Events With Persistent High Surface Runoff From Hydrological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, S.; Hakeem, K. Abdul; Raju, P. V.; Rao, V. V.; Yadav, A.; Diwakar, P. G.; Dadhwal, V. K.

    2014-11-01

    Floods are one of the most common and widespread disasters in India, with an estimated 40Mha of land prone to this natural disaster (National Flood Commission, India). Significant loss of property, infrastructure, livestock, public utilities resulting in large economic losses due to floods are recurrent every year in many parts of India. Flood forecasting and early warning is widely recognized and adopted as non-structural measure to lower the damages caused by the flood events. Estimating the rainfall excess that results into excessive river flow is preliminary effort in riverine flood estimation. Flood forecasting models are in general, are event based and do not fully account for successive and persistent excessive surface runoff conditions. Successive high rainfall events result in saturated soil moisture conditions, favourable for high surface runoff conditions. The present study is to explore the usefulness of hydrological model derived surface runoff, running on continuous times-step, to relate to the occurrence of flood inundation due to persistent and successive high surface runoff conditions. Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), a macro-scale hydrological model, was used to simulate daily runoff at systematic grid level incorporating daily meteorological data and land cover data. VIC is a physically based, semi-distributed macroscale hydrological model that represents surface and subsurface hydrologic process on spatially distributed grid cell. It explicitly represents sub-grid heterogeneity in land cover classes, taking their phenological changes into account. In this study, the model was setup for entire India using geo-spatial data available from multiple sources (NRSC, NBSS&LUP, NOAA, and IMD) and was calibrated with river discharge data from CWC at selected river basins. Using the grid-wise surface runoff estimates from the model, an algorithm was developed through a set of thresholds of successive high runoff values in order to identify grids

  1. Top-down methodology for rainfall-runoff modelling and evaluation of hydrological extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    A top-down methodology is presented for implementation and calibration of a lumped conceptual catchment rainfall-runoff model that aims to produce high model performance (depending on the quality and availability of data) in terms of rainfall-runoff discharges for the full range from low to high discharges, including the peak and low flow extremes. The model is to be used to support water engineering applications, which most often deal with high and low flows as well as cumulative runoff volumes. With this application in mind, the paper wants to contribute to the above-mentioned problems and advancements on model evaluation, model-structure selection, the overparameterization problem and the long time the modeller needs to invest or the difficulties one encounters when building and calibrating a lumped conceptual model for a river catchment. The methodology is an empirical and step-wise technique that includes examination of the various model components step by step through a data-based analysis of response characteristics. The approach starts from a generalized lumped conceptual model structure. In this structure, only the general components of a lumped conceptual model, such as the existence of storage and routing elements, and their inter-links, are pre-defined. The detailed specifications on model equations and parameters are supported by advanced time series analysis of the empirical response between the rainfall and evapotranspiration inputs and the river flow output. Subresponses are separated and submodel components and related subsets of parameters are calibrated as independently as possible. At the same time, the model-structure identification process aims to reach parsimonious submodel-structures, and accounts for the serial dependency of runoff values, which typically is higher for low flows than for high flows. It also accounts for the heteroscedasticity and dependency of model residuals when evaluating the model performance. It is shown that this step

  2. Assessing the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) pollution of urban stormwater runoff: a dynamic modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yi; Lin, Zhongrong; Li, Hao; Ge, Yan; Zhang, Wei; Ye, Youbin; Wang, Xuejun

    2014-05-15

    Urban stormwater runoff delivers a significant amount of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), mostly of atmospheric origin, to receiving water bodies. The PAH pollution of urban stormwater runoff poses serious risk to aquatic life and human health, but has been overlooked by environmental modeling and management. This study proposed a dynamic modeling approach for assessing the PAH pollution and its associated environmental risk. A variable time-step model was developed to simulate the continuous cycles of pollutant buildup and washoff. To reflect the complex interaction among different environmental media (i.e. atmosphere, dust and stormwater), the dependence of the pollution level on antecedent weather conditions was investigated and embodied in the model. Long-term simulations of the model can be efficiently performed, and probabilistic features of the pollution level and its risk can be easily determined. The applicability of this approach and its value to environmental management was demonstrated by a case study in Beijing, China. The results showed that Beijing's PAH pollution of road runoff is relatively severe, and its associated risk exhibits notable seasonal variation. The current sweeping practice is effective in mitigating the pollution, but the effectiveness is both weather-dependent and compound-dependent. The proposed modeling approach can help identify critical timing and major pollutants for monitoring, assessing and controlling efforts to be focused on. The approach is extendable to other urban areas, as well as to other contaminants with similar fate and transport as PAHs.

  3. Runoff Prediction Using an Aggregation Hydrology Model on Seulimum River Sub Watershed, Aceh Province, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susi Chairani

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the present study was to predict the runoff in Seulimeum River sub watershed by utilizing an aggregation hydrology model. The method in this research consisted of field observation, collecting data and map, testing model, and analyzing data. Some parameters were used as the inputs on the model, such as: maximum storage, actual groundwater storage, soil moisture, and the constant of soil moisture k(t. The aggregation hydrology model was tested using 3 (three statistical parameters, such as; determination coefficient (R2, biased percentage (PBIAS, and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (ENS. The result showed that the minimum runoff occured in 1998 was 70.22 mm and the maximum runoff occurred in 1987 was 759.12 mm. The model testing showed that the aggregation hydrology model had a good performance in predicting the discharge of Krueng Seulimemum Sub Watershed; the R2, P biased, and ENS resulted 0.92, -5.21%, and 0.90, respectively

  4. Model-based monitoring of stormwater runoff quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birch, Heidi; Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2013-01-01

    Monitoring of micropollutants (MP) in stormwater is essential to evaluate the impacts of stormwater on the receiving aquatic environment. The aim of this study was to investigate how different strategies for monitoring of stormwater quality (combining a model with field sampling) affect...... the information obtained about MP discharged from the monitored system. A dynamic stormwater quality model was calibrated using MP data collected by automatic volume-proportional sampling and passive sampling in a storm drainage system on the outskirts of Copenhagen (Denmark) and a 10-year rain series was used......) for calibration of the model, resulted in the same predicted level but with narrower model prediction bounds than by using volume-proportional samples for calibration. This shows that passive sampling allows for a better exploitation of the resources allocated for stormwater quality monitoring....

  5. Integration of Volterra model with artificial neural networks for rainfall-runoff simulation in forested catchment of northern Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashani, Mahsa H.; Ghorbani, Mohammad Ali; Dinpashoh, Yagob; Shahmorad, Sedaghat

    2016-09-01

    Rainfall-runoff simulation is an important task in water resources management. In this study, an integrated Volterra model with artificial neural networks (IVANN) was presented to simulate the rainfall-runoff process. The proposed integrated model includes the semi-distributed forms of the Volterra and ANN models which can explore spatial variation in rainfall-runoff process without requiring physical characteristic parameters of the catchments, while taking advantage of the potential of Volterra and ANNs models in nonlinear mapping. The IVANN model was developed using hourly rainfall and runoff data pertaining to thirteen storms to study short-term responses of a forest catchment in northern Iran; and its performance was compared with that of semi-distributed integrated ANN (IANN) model and lumped Volterra model. The Volterra model was applied as a nonlinear model (second-order Volterra (SOV) model) and solved using the ordinary least square (OLS) method. The models performance were evaluated and compared using five performance criteria namely coefficient of efficiency, root mean square error, error of total volume, relative error of peak discharge and error of time for peak to arrive. Results showed that the IVANN model performs well than the other semi-distributed and lumped models to simulate the rainfall-runoff process. Comparing to the integrated models, the lumped SOV model has lower precision to simulate the rainfall-runoff process.

  6. Using Runoff Data to Calibrate the Community Land Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, J.; Hou, Z.; Huang, M.; Swiler, L.

    2014-12-01

    We present a statistical method for calibrating the Community Land Model (CLM) using streamflow observations collected between 1999 and 2008 at the outlet of two river basins from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX), Oostanaula River at Resaca GA, and Walnut River at Winfield KS.. The observed streamflow shows variability over a large range of time-scales, none of which significantly dominates the others; consequently, the time-series seems noisy and is difficult to be directly used in model parameter estimation efforts without significant filtering. We perform a multi-resolution wavelet decomposition of the observed streamflow, and use the wavelet power coefficients (WPC) as the tuning data. We construct a mapping (a surrogate model) between WPC and three hydrological parameters of the CLM using a training set of 256 CLM runs. The dependence of WPC on the parameters is complex and cannot be captured using a surrogate unless the parameter combinations yield physically plausible model predictions, i.e., those that are skillful when compared to observations. Retaining only the top quartile of the runs ensures skillfulness, as measured by the RMS error between observations and CLM predictions. This "screening" of the training data yields a region (the "valid" region) in the parameter space where accurate surrogate models can be created. We construct a classifier for the "valid" region, and, in conjunction with the surrogate models for WPC, pose a Bayesian inverse problem for the three hydrological parameters. The inverse problem is solved using an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to construct a three-dimensional posterior distribution for the hydrological parameters. Posterior predictive tests using the surrogate model reveal that the posterior distribution is more predictive than the nominal values of the parameters, which are used as default values in the current version of CLM. The effectiveness of the inversion is then validated by

  7. Uncertainty in runoff based on Global Climate Model precipitation and temperature data – Part 2: Estimation and uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. C. Peel

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between Global Climate Models (GCMs and within a GCM. Within-GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The limited number of runs available for each GCM and scenario combination within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3 and phase 5 (CMIP5 datasets, limits the assessment of within-GCM uncertainty. In this second of two companion papers, the primary aim is to approximate within-GCM uncertainty of monthly precipitation and temperature projections and assess its impact on modelled runoff for climate change impact assessments. A secondary aim is to assess the impact of between-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff. Here we approximate within-GCM uncertainty by developing non-stationary stochastic replicates of GCM monthly precipitation and temperature data. These replicates are input to an off-line hydrologic model to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected annual runoff and reservoir yield. To-date within-GCM uncertainty has received little attention in the hydrologic climate change impact literature and this analysis provides an approximation of the uncertainty in projected runoff, and reservoir yield, due to within- and between-GCM uncertainty of precipitation and temperature projections. In the companion paper, McMahon et al. (2014 sought to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by removing poorly performing GCMs, resulting in a selection of five better performing GCMs from CMIP3 for use in this paper. Here we present within- and between-GCM uncertainty results in mean annual precipitation (MAP, temperature (MAT and runoff (MAR, the standard deviation of annual precipitation (SDP and runoff (SDR and reservoir yield for five CMIP3 GCMs at 17 world-wide catchments

  8. Quantitative comparison of initial soil erosion processes and runoff generation in Spanish and German vineyards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigo Comino, J; Iserloh, T; Lassu, T; Cerdà, A; Keestra, S D; Prosdocimi, M; Brings, C; Marzen, M; Ramos, M C; Senciales, J M; Ruiz Sinoga, J D; Seeger, M; Ries, J B

    2016-09-15

    The aim of this study was to enable a quantitative comparison of initial soil erosion processes in European vineyards using the same methodology and equipment. The study was conducted in four viticultural areas with different characteristics (Valencia and Málaga in Spain, Ruwer-Mosel valley and Saar-Mosel valley in Germany). Old and young vineyards, with conventional and ecological planting and management systems were compared. The same portable rainfall simulator with identical rainfall intensity (40mmh(-1)) and sampling intervals (30min of test duration, collecting the samples at 5-min-intervals) was used over a circular test plot with 0.28m(2). The results of 83 simulations have been analysed and correlation coefficients were calculated for each study area to identify the relationship between environmental plot characteristics, soil texture, soil erosion, runoff and infiltration. The results allow for identification of the main factors related to soil properties, topography and management, which control soil erosion processes in vineyards. The most important factors influencing soil erosion and runoff were the vegetation cover for the ecological German vineyards (with 97.6±8% infiltration coefficients) and stone cover, soil moisture and slope steepness for the conventional land uses.

  9. Towards a generic rainfall-runoff model for green roofs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasmin, H; Stovin, V R; Hathway, E A

    2010-01-01

    A simple conceptual model for green roof hydrological processes is shown to reproduce monitored data, both during a storm event, and over a longer continuous simulation period. The model comprises a substrate moisture storage component and a transient storage component. Storage within the substrate represents the roof's overall stormwater retention capacity (or initial losses). Following a storm event the retention capacity is restored by evapotranspiration (ET). However, standard methods for quantifying ET do not exist. Monthly ET values are identified using four different approaches: analysis of storm event antecedent dry weather period and initial losses data; calibration of the ET parameter in a continuous simulation model; use of the Thornthwaite ET formula; and direct laboratory measurement of evaporation. There appears to be potential to adapt the Thornthwaite ET formula to provide monthly ET estimates from local temperature data. The development of a standardized laboratory test for ET will enable differences resulting from substrate characteristics to be quantified.

  10. Runoff and sediment yield modeling in a medium-size mediterranean watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ossama M.M. Abdelwahab

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The AnnAGNPS model was used to estimate runoff, peak discharge and sediment yield at the event scale in the Carapelle watershed, a Mediterranean medium-size watershed (506 km2 located in Apulia, Southern Italy. The model was calibrated and validated using five years of runoff and sediment yield data measured at a monitoring station located at Ordona – Ponte dei Sauri Bridge. A total of 36 events was used to estimate the output of the model during the period 2007-2011, in comparison to the corresponding observations at the watershed outlet. The model performed well in predicting runoff, as was testified by the high values of the coefficients of efficiency and determination during the validation process. The peak flows predictions were satisfactory especially for the high flow events; the prediction capability of sediment yield was good, even if a slight over-estimation was observed. Finally, the model was used to evaluate the effectiveness of different Management practices (MPs on the watershed (converting wheat to forest, using vegetated streams, crop rotation corn/soybean, no tillage. While the maximum reduction in sediment yield was achieved converting wheat to forest, the best compromises between soil conservation and agriculture resulted to be crop rotations.

  11. Runoff simulation in the Ferghana Valley (Central Asia) using conceptual hydrological HBV-light model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radchenko, Iuliia; Breuer, Lutz; Forkutsa, Irina; Frede, Hans-Georg

    2013-04-01

    Glaciers and permafrost on the ranges of the Tien Shan mountain system are primary sources of water in the Ferghana Valley. The water artery of the valley is the Syr Darya River that is formed by confluence of the Naryn and Kara Darya rivers, which originate from the mountain glaciers of the Ak-Shyrak and the Ferghana ranges accordingly. The Ferghana Valley is densely populated and main activity of population is agriculture that heavily depends on irrigation especially in such arid region. The runoff reduction is projected in future due to global temperature rise and glacier shrinkage as a consequence. Therefore, it is essential to study climate change impact on water resources in the area both for ecological and economic aspects. The evaluation of comparative contribution of small upper catchments (n=24) with precipitation predominance in discharge and the large Naryn and Karadarya River basins, which are fed by glacial melt water, to the Fergana Valley water balance under current and future climatic conditions is general aim of the study. Appropriate understanding of the hydrological cycle under current climatic conditions is significant for prognosis of water resource availability in the future. Thus, conceptual hydrological HBV-light model was used for analysing of the water balance of the small upper catchments that surround the Ferghana Valley. Three trial catchments (the Kugart River basin, 1010 km²; the Kurshab River basin, 2010 km2; the Akbura River basin, 2260 km²) with relatively good temporal quality data were chosen to setup the model. Due to limitation of daily temperature data the MODAWEC weather generator, which converts monthly temperature data into daily based on correlation with rainfall, was tested and applied for the HBV-light model.

  12. Parameter estimation in stochastic rainfall-runoff models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa; Madsen, Henrik; Palsson, Olafur Petur

    2006-01-01

    the parameters, including the noise terms. The parameter estimation method is a maximum likelihood method (ML) where the likelihood function is evaluated using a Kalman filter technique. The ML method estimates the parameters in a prediction error settings, i.e. the sum of squared prediction error is minimized....... For a comparison the parameters are also estimated by an output error method, where the sum of squared simulation error is minimized. The former methodology is optimal for short-term prediction whereas the latter is optimal for simulations. Hence, depending on the purpose it is possible to select whether...... the parameter values are optimal for simulation or prediction. The data originates from Iceland and the model is designed for Icelandic conditions, including a snow routine for mountainous areas. The model demands only two input data series, precipitation and temperature and one output data series...

  13. A model for assessing effects of climate change on runoff in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SU Fengge; XIE Zhenghui

    2003-01-01

    A model is established for assessing the effects of climate change on runoff in China based on the land surface parameterization scheme variable infiltration capacity (VIC). The entire area of China is represented by 2604 cells with a resolution of 60 km×60 km for each cell. Forcing data, soil and vegetation parameters needed by the VIC model for the entire area of China are prepared. Daily forcing data, which are obtained from 740 stations between 1980 and 1990, are interpolated to the 60 km×60 km grid system. The VIC model is run on every grid cell over the whole China, and a routing scheme is run offline with daily input of surface runoff and drainage from the VIC to get hydrograph at basin outlets. The spatial patterns of simulated runoff and mean annual precipitation are consistent very well. The results of monthly streamflow simulations over the Huaihe and Weihe River basins indicate that there is a good agreement between the observed and simulated values, and also initially indicate the rationality and feasibility of the evaluation model.

  14. Event-based rainfall-runoff modelling of the Kelantan River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basarudin, Z.; Adnan, N. A.; Latif, A. R. A.; Tahir, W.; Syafiqah, N.

    2014-02-01

    Flood is one of the most common natural disasters in Malaysia. According to hydrologists there are many causes that contribute to flood events. The two most dominant factors are the meteorology factor (i.e climate change) and change in land use. These two factors contributed to floods in recent decade especially in the monsoonal catchment such as Malaysia. This paper intends to quantify the influence of rainfall during extreme rainfall events on the hydrological model in the Kelantan River catchment. Therefore, two dynamic inputs were used in the study: rainfall and river discharge. The extreme flood events in 2008 and 2004 were compared based on rainfall data for both years. The events were modeled via a semi-distributed HEC-HMS hydrological model. Land use change was not incorporated in the study because the study only tries to quantify rainfall changes during these two events to simulate the discharge and runoff value. Therefore, the land use data representing the year 2004 were used as inputs in the 2008 runoff model. The study managed to demonstrate that rainfall change has a significant impact to determine the peak discharge and runoff depth for the study area.

  15. Multiple linear regression models of urban runoff pollutant load and event mean concentration considering rainfall variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maniquiz, Marla C; Lee, Soyoung; Kim, Lee-Hyung

    2010-01-01

    Rainfall is an important factor in estimating the event mean concentration (EMC) which is used to quantify the washed-off pollutant concentrations from non-point sources (NPSs). Pollutant loads could also be calculated using rainfall, catchment area and runoff coefficient. In this study, runoff quantity and quality data gathered from a 28-month monitoring conducted on the road and parking lot sites in Korea were evaluated using multiple linear regression (MLR) to develop equations for estimating pollutant loads and EMCs as a function of rainfall variables. The results revealed that total event rainfall and average rainfall intensity are possible predictors of pollutant loads. Overall, the models are indicators of the high uncertainties of NPSs; perhaps estimation of EMCs and loads could be accurately obtained by means of water quality sampling or a long-term monitoring is needed to gather more data that can be used for the development of estimation models.

  16. Impacts of Noah model physics on catchment-scale runoff simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Donghai; Van der Velde, Rogier; Su, Zhongbo; Wen, Jun; Wang, Xin; Booij, Martijn J.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Lv, Shihua; Zhang, Yu; Ek, Michael B.

    2016-01-01

    Noah model physics options validated for the source region of the Yellow River (SRYR) are applied to investigate their ability in reproducing runoff at the catchment scale. Three sets of augmentations are implemented affecting descriptions of (i) turbulent and soil heat transport (Noah-H), (ii) soil water flow (Noah-W), and (iii) frozen ground processes (Noah-F). Five numerical experiments are designed with the three augmented versions, a control run with default model physics and a run with all augmentations (Noah-A). Each experiment is set up with vegetation and soil parameters from Weather Research and Forecasting data set, soil organic matter content from China Soil Database, 0.1° atmospheric forcing data from Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research (Chinese Academy of Sciences), and initial equilibrium model states achieved using a single-year recurrent spin-up. In situ heat flux, soil temperature (Ts), and soil moisture (θ) profile measurements are available for point-scale assessment, whereas monthly streamflow is utilized for the catchment-scale evaluation. The comparison with point measurements shows that the augmentations invoked with Noah-H resolve issues with the heat flux and Ts simulation and Noah-W mitigates deficiencies in the θ simulation, while Noah-A yields improvements for both simulated surface energy and water budgets. In contrast, Noah-F has a minor effect. Also, at catchment scale, the best model performance is found for Noah-A leading to a base flow-dominated runoff regime, whereby the surface runoff contribution remains significant. This study highlights the need for a complete description of vertical heat and water exchanges to correctly simulate the runoff in the seasonally frozen and high-altitude SRYR at the catchment scale.

  17. A simple rainfall-runoff model for the single and long term hydrological performance of green roofs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Locatelli, Luca; Mark, Ole; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    Green roofs are being widely implemented for storm water control and runoff reduction. There is need for incorporating green roofs into urban drainage models in order to evaluate their impact. These models must have low computational costs and fine time resolution. This paper aims to develop...... a model of green roof hydrological performance. A simple conceptual model for the long term and single event hydrological performance of green roofs, shows to be capable of reproducing observed runoff measurements. The model has surface and subsurface storage components representing the overall retention...... capacity of the green roof. The runoff from the system is described by the non-linear reservoir method and the storage capacity of the green roof is continuously re-established by evapotranspiration. Runoff data from a green roof in Denmark are collected and used for parameter calibration....

  18. Assessing the benefit of snow data assimilation for runoff modeling in Alpine catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griessinger, Nena; Seibert, Jan; Magnusson, Jan; Jonas, Tobias

    2016-09-01

    In Alpine catchments, snowmelt is often a major contribution to runoff. Therefore, modeling snow processes is important when concerned with flood or drought forecasting, reservoir operation and inland waterway management. In this study, we address the question of how sensitive hydrological models are to the representation of snow cover dynamics and whether the performance of a hydrological model can be enhanced by integrating data from a dedicated external snow monitoring system. As a framework for our tests we have used the hydrological model HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) in the version HBV-light, which has been applied in many hydrological studies and is also in use for operational purposes. While HBV originally follows a temperature-index approach with time-invariant calibrated degree-day factors to represent snowmelt, in this study the HBV model was modified to use snowmelt time series from an external and spatially distributed snow model as model input. The external snow model integrates three-dimensional sequential assimilation of snow monitoring data with a snowmelt model, which is also based on the temperature-index approach but uses a time-variant degree-day factor. The following three variations of this external snow model were applied: (a) the full model with assimilation of observational snow data from a dense monitoring network, (b) the same snow model but with data assimilation switched off and (c) a downgraded version of the same snow model representing snowmelt with a time-invariant degree-day factor. Model runs were conducted for 20 catchments at different elevations within Switzerland for 15 years. Our results show that at low and mid-elevations the performance of the runoff simulations did not vary considerably with the snow model version chosen. At higher elevations, however, best performance in terms of simulated runoff was obtained when using the snowmelt time series from the snow model, which utilized data assimilation

  19. Multi-Site Calibration of Linear Reservoir Based Geomorphologic Rainfall-Runoff Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bahram Saeidifarzad

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Multi-site optimization of two adapted event-based geomorphologic rainfall-runoff models was presented using Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II method for the South Fork Eel River watershed, California. The first model was developed based on Unequal Cascade of Reservoirs (UECR and the second model was presented as a modified version of Geomorphological Unit Hydrograph based on Nash’s model (GUHN. Two calibration strategies were considered as semi-lumped and semi-distributed for imposing (or unimposing the geomorphology relations in the models. The results of models were compared with Nash’s model. Obtained results using the observed data of two stations in the multi-site optimization framework showed reasonable efficiency values in both the calibration and the verification steps. The outcomes also showed that semi-distributed calibration of the modified GUHN model slightly outperformed other models in both upstream and downstream stations during calibration. Both calibration strategies for the developed UECR model during the verification phase showed slightly better performance in the downstream station, but in the upstream station, the modified GUHN model in the semi-lumped strategy slightly outperformed the other models. The semi-lumped calibration strategy could lead to logical lag time parameters related to the basin geomorphology and may be more suitable for data-based statistical analyses of the rainfall-runoff process.

  20. A Simple Runoff Model Based on Topographic Wetness Indices and Soil Moisture for Central New York Agricultural Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmeister, K.; Georgakakos, C.; Walter, M. T.

    2014-12-01

    Nonpoint source (NPS) pollution continues to be a leading cause of surface water degradation, especially in agricultural areas. In humid regions where variable source area (VSA) hydrology dominates, such as the Northeastern US, topographic wetness indices (TWI) are good approximations of relative soil moisture patterns. Mapping areas of the landscape likely to generate saturation-excess runoff and carry NPS pollution to surface waters could allow for more efficient, targeted best management practices in agricultural fields. Given the relationship between saturation excess runoff and soil water storage, we used volumetric water content (VWC) measured in five agricultural fields in central New York over two years (2012-2014) to develop runoff probability maps based on a soil topographic index (STI). The relationship between VWC and STI was strongest during the fall season after leaf fall at all sites except one. We calculated the probability of runoff occurring based on soil moisture and precipitation distributions during the sampling period. The threshold for runoff occurs when the depth of soil water and rainfall reach saturation of the soil, and appears to be at the average porosity of the soil at all sites. Counter to our initial hypothesis of a higher probability of saturation excess runoff during the spring when conditions are wetter, some sites showed higher frequencies of runoff during the fall season.

  1. Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Woo Lee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM, namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs, Regional Model Program (RMP. The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070 simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

  2. Modelling runoff on ceramic tile roofs using the kinematic wave equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silveira, Alexandre; Abrantes, João; de Lima, João; Lira, Lincoln

    2016-04-01

    Rainwater harvesting is a water saving alternative strategy that presents many advantages and can provide solutions to address major water resources problems, such as fresh water scarcity, urban stream degradation and flooding. In recent years, these problems have become global challenges, due to climatic change, population growth and increasing urbanisation. Generally, roofs are the first to come into contact with rainwater; thus, they are the best candidates for rainwater harvesting. In this context, the correct evaluation of roof runoff quantity and quality is essential to effectively design rainwater harvesting systems. Despite this, many studies usually focus on the qualitative aspects in detriment of the quantitative aspects. Laboratory studies using rainfall simulators have been widely used to investigate rainfall-runoff processes. These studies enabled a detailed exploration and systematic replication of a large range of hydrologic conditions, such as rainfall spatial and temporal characteristics, providing for a fast way to obtain precise and consistent data that can be used to calibrate and validate numerical models. This study aims to evaluate the performance of a kinematic wave based numerical model in simulating runoff on sloping roofs, by comparing the numerical results with the ones obtained from laboratory rainfall simulations on a real-scale ceramic tile roof (Lusa tiles). For all studied slopes, simulated discharge hydrographs had a good adjust to observed ones. Coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values were close to 1.0. Particularly, peak discharges, times to peak and peak durations were very well simulated.

  3. Linking structural and functional connectivity in a simple runoff-runon model over soils with heterogeneous infiltrability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harel, M.; Mouche, E.

    2012-12-01

    Runoff production on a hillslope during a rainfall event may be simplified as follows. Given a soil of constant infiltrability I, which is the maximum amount of water that the soil can infiltrate, and a constant rainfall intensity R, runoff is observed wherever R is greater than I. The infiltration rate equals the infiltrability where runoff is produced, R otherwise. When ponding time, topography, and overall spatial and temporal variations of physical parameters, such as R and I, are neglected, the runoff equation remains simple. In this study, we consider soils of spatially variable infiltrability. As runoff can re-infiltrate on down-slope areas of higher infiltrabilities (runon process), the resulting process is highly non-linear. The stationary runoff equation is: Qn+1 = max (Qn + (R - In)*Δx , 0) where Qn is the runoff arriving on pixel n of size Δx [L2/T], R and In the rainfall intensity and infiltrability on that same pixel [L/T]. The non-linearity is due to the dependence of infiltration on R and Qn, that is runon. This re-infiltration process generates patterns of runoff along the slope, patterns that organise and connect differently to each other depending on the rainfall intensity and the nature of the soil heterogeneity. In order to characterize the runoff patterns and their connectivity, we use the connectivity function defined by Allard (1993) in Geostatistics. Our aim is to assess, in a stochastic framework, the runoff organization on 1D and 2D slopes with random infiltrabilities (log-normal, exponential and bimodal distributions) by means of numerical simulations. Firstly, we show how runoff is produced and organized in patterns along a 2D slope according to the infiltrability distribution. We specifically illustrate and discuss the link between the statistical nature of the infiltrability and that of the flow-rate, with a special focus on the relations between the connectivities of both fields: the structural connectivity (infiltrability patterns

  4. Runoff of small rocky headwater catchments: Field observations and hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregoretti, C.; Degetto, M.; Bernard, M.; Crucil, G.; Pimazzoni, A.; De Vido, G.; Berti, M.; Simoni, A.; Lanzoni, S.

    2016-10-01

    In dolomitic headwater catchments, intense rainstorms of short duration produce runoff discharges that often trigger debris flows on the scree slopes at the base of rock cliffs. In order to measure these discharges, we placed a measuring facility at the outlet (elevation 1770 m a.s.l.) of a small, rocky headwater catchment (area ˜0.032 km2, average slope ˜320%) located in the Venetian Dolomites (North Eastern Italian Alps). The facility consists of an approximately rectangular basin, ending with a sharp-crested weir. Six runoff events were recorded in the period 2011-2014, providing a unique opportunity for characterizing the hydrological response of the catchment. The measured hydrographs display impulsive shapes, with an abrupt raise up to the peak, followed by a rapidly decreasing tail, until a nearly constant plateau is eventually reached. This behavior can be simulated by means of a distributed hydrological model if the excess rainfall is determined accurately. We show that using the Soil Conservation Service Curve-Number (SCS-CN) method and assuming a constant routing velocity invariably results in an underestimated peak flow and a delayed peak time. A satisfactory prediction of the impulsive hydrograph shape, including peak value and timing, is obtained only by combining the SCS-CN procedure with a simplified version of the Horton equation, and simulating runoff routing along the channel network through a matched diffusivity kinematic wave model. The robustness of the proposed methodology is tested through a comparison between simulated and observed timings of runoff or debris flow occurrence in two neighboring alpine basins.

  5. Spatial Interpolation of Annual Runoff in Ungauged Basins Based on the Improved Information Diffusion Model Using a Genetic Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mei Hong

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB is an important task for water resources planning and management and remains a fundamental challenge for the hydrological community. In recent years, geostatistical methods have proven valuable for estimating hydrological variables in ungauged catchments. However, four major problems restrict the development of geostatistical methods. We established a new information diffusion model based on genetic algorithm (GIDM for spatial interpolating of runoff in the ungauged basins. Genetic algorithms (GA are used to generate high-quality solutions to optimization and search problems. So, using GA, the parameter of optimal window width can be obtained. To test our new method, seven experiments for the annual runoff interpolation based on GIDM at 17 stations on the mainstream and tributaries of the Yellow River are carried out and compared with the inverse distance weighting (IDW method, Cokriging (COK method, and conventional IDMs using the same sparse observed data. The seven experiments all show that the GIDM method can solve four problems of the previous geostatistical methods to some extent and obtains best accuracy among four different models. The key problems of the PUB research are the lack of observation data and the difficulties in information extraction. So the GIDM is a new and useful tool to solve the Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB problem and to improve the water management.

  6. Forecasting river discharge using coupled WRF-NMM meteorological model and HBV runoff model, case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekić, L.; Mihalović, A.; Jovičić, I.; Vladiković, D.; Jerinić, J.; Ivković, M.

    2012-04-01

    This paper examines two episodes of heavy rainfall and significantly increased water levels. The first case relates to the period including the beginning and the end of the third decade of June 2010 at the Kolubara river basin, where extreme rainfall led to two big flood waves on the Kolubara river, whereat water levels exceeded both regular and extraordinary flood defence and approached their historical maximum. The second case relates to the period including the end of November and the beginning of December 2010 at the Jadar river basin, where heavier precipitation caused the water levels of the basin to reach and surpass the occurrence limit (warning level). The HBV (Hydrological Bureau Waterbalance-section) rainfall/snowmelt - runoff model installed at the RHMSS uses gridded quantitative precipitation and air temperature forecast for 72 hours in advance based on meteorological weather forecast WRF-NMM mesoscale model. Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) core of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system is flexible state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model capable to describe and estimate powerful nonhydrostatic mechanism in convective clouds that cause heavy rain. The HBV model is a semi-distributed conceptual catchment model in which the spatial structure of a catchment area is not explicitly modelled. Instead, the sub-basin represents a primary modelling unit while the basin is characterised by area-elevation distribution and classification of vegetation cover and land use distributed by height zone. WRF-NMM forecast shows very good agreement with observations in terms of timing, location and amount of precipitation. They are used as input for HBV model, forecasted discharges at the output profile of the selected river basin represent model output for consideration. 1 Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia

  7. Evaluating the robustness of conceptual rainfall-runoff models under climate variability in northern Tunisia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dakhlaoui, H.; Ruelland, D.; Tramblay, Y.; Bargaoui, Z.

    2017-07-01

    To evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources at the catchment scale, not only future projections of climate are necessary but also robust rainfall-runoff models that must be fairly reliable under changing climate conditions. The aim of this study was thus to assess the robustness of three conceptual rainfall-runoff models (GR4j, HBV and IHACRES) on five basins in northern Tunisia under long-term climate variability, in the light of available future climate scenarios for this region. The robustness of the models was evaluated using a differential split sample test based on a climate classification of the observation period that simultaneously accounted for precipitation and temperature conditions. The study catchments include the main hydrographical basins in northern Tunisia, which produce most of the surface water resources in the country. A 30-year period (1970-2000) was used to capture a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. The calibration was based on the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) criterion, while model transferability was evaluated based on the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion and volume error. The three hydrological models were shown to behave similarly under climate variability. The models simulated the runoff pattern better when transferred to wetter and colder conditions than to drier and warmer ones. It was shown that their robustness became unacceptable when climate conditions involved a decrease of more than 25% in annual precipitation and an increase of more than +1.75 °C in annual mean temperatures. The reduction in model robustness may be partly due to the climate dependence of some parameters. When compared to precipitation and temperature projections in the region, the limits of transferability obtained in this study are generally respected for short and middle term. For long term projections under the most pessimistic emission gas scenarios, the limits of transferability are generally not respected, which may hamper the

  8. a Empirical Modelation of Runoff in Small Watersheds Using LIDAR Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopatin, J.; Hernández, J.; Galleguillos, M.; Mancilla, G.

    2013-12-01

    Hydrological models allow the simulation of water natural processes and also the quantification and prediction of the effects of human impacts in runoff behavior. However, obtaining the information that is need for applying these models can be costly in both time and resources, especially in large and difficult to access areas. The objective of this research was to integrate LiDAR data in the hydrological modeling of runoff in small watersheds, using derivated hydrologic, vegetation and topography variables. The study area includes 10 small head watersheds cover bay forest, between 2 and 16 ha, which are located in the south-central coastal range of Chile. In each of the former instantaneous rainfall and runoff flow of a total of 15 rainfall events were measured, between August 2012 and July 2013, yielding a total of 79 observations. In March 2011 a Harrier 54/G4 Dual System was used to obtain a LiDAR point cloud of discrete pulse with an average of 4.64 points per square meter. A Digital Terrain Model (DTM) of 1 meter resolution was obtained from the point cloud, and subsequently 55 topographic variables were derived, such as physical watershed parameters and morphometric features. At the same time, 30 vegetation descriptive variables were obtained directly from the point cloud and from a Digital Canopy Model (DCM). The classification and regression "Random Forest" (RF) algorithm was used to select the most important variables in predicting water height (liters), and the "Partial Least Squares Path Modeling" (PLS-PM) algorithm was used to fit a model using the selected set of variables. Four Latent variables were selected (outer model) related to: climate, topography, vegetation and runoff, where in each one was designated a group of the predictor variables selected by RF (inner model). The coefficient of determination (R2) and Goodnes-of-Fit (GoF) of the final model were obtained. The best results were found when modeling using only the upper 50th percentile of

  9. Modelling the impact of increasing soil sealing on runoff coefficients at regional scale: a hydropedological approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ungaro Fabrizio

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Soil sealing is the permanent covering of the land surface by buildings, infrastructures or any impermeable artificial material. Beside the loss of fertile soils with a direct impact on food security, soil sealing modifies the hydrological cycle. This can cause an increased flooding risk, due to urban development in potential risk areas and to the increased volumes of runoff. This work estimates the increase of runoff due to sealing following urbanization and land take in the plain of Emilia Romagna (Italy, using the Green and Ampt infiltration model for two rainfall return periods (20 and 200 years in two different years, 1976 and 2008. To this goal a hydropedological approach was adopted in order to characterize soil hydraulic properties via locally calibrated pedotransfer functions (PTF. PTF inputs were estimated via sequential Gaussian simulations coupled with a simple kriging with varying local means, taking into account soil type and dominant land use. Results show that in the study area an average increment of 8.4% in sealed areas due to urbanization and sprawl induces an average increment in surface runoff equal to 3.5 and 2.7% respectively for 20 and 200-years return periods, with a maximum > 20% for highly sealed coast areas.

  10. Integrated Landsat Image Analysis and Hydrologic Modeling to Detect Impacts of 25-Year Land-Cover Change on Surface Runoff in a Philippine Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrico Paringit

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Landsat MSS and ETM+ images were analyzed to detect 25-year land-cover change (1976–2001 in the critical Taguibo Watershed in Mindanao Island, Southern Philippines. This watershed has experienced historical modifications of its land-cover due to the presence of logging industries in the 1950s, and continuous deforestation due to illegal logging and slash-and-burn agriculture in the present time. To estimate the impacts of land-cover change on watershed runoff, land-cover information derived from the Landsat images was utilized to parameterize a GIS-based hydrologic model. The model was then calibrated with field-measured discharge data and used to simulate the responses of the watershed in its year 2001 and year 1976 land-cover conditions. The availability of land-cover information on the most recent state of the watershed from the Landsat ETM+ image made it possible to locate areas for rehabilitation such as barren and logged-over areas. We then created a “rehabilitated” land-cover condition map of the watershed (re-forestation of logged-over areas and agro-forestation of barren areas and used it to parameterize the model and predict the runoff responses of the watershed. Model results showed that changes in land-cover from 1976 to 2001 were directly related to the significant increase in surface runoff. Runoff predictions showed that a full rehabilitation of the watershed, especially in barren and logged-over areas, will be likely to reduce the generation of a huge volume of runoff during rainfall events. The results of this study have demonstrated the usefulness of multi-temporal Landsat images in detecting land-cover change, in identifying areas for rehabilitation, and in evaluating rehabilitation strategies for management of tropical watersheds through its use in hydrologic modeling.

  11. Procedures for adjusting regional regression models of urban-runoff quality using local data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoos, A.B.; Sisolak, J.K.

    1993-01-01

    Statistical operations termed model-adjustment procedures (MAP?s) can be used to incorporate local data into existing regression models to improve the prediction of urban-runoff quality. Each MAP is a form of regression analysis in which the local data base is used as a calibration data set. Regression coefficients are determined from the local data base, and the resulting `adjusted? regression models can then be used to predict storm-runoff quality at unmonitored sites. The response variable in the regression analyses is the observed load or mean concentration of a constituent in storm runoff for a single storm. The set of explanatory variables used in the regression analyses is different for each MAP, but always includes the predicted value of load or mean concentration from a regional regression model. The four MAP?s examined in this study were: single-factor regression against the regional model prediction, P, (termed MAP-lF-P), regression against P,, (termed MAP-R-P), regression against P, and additional local variables (termed MAP-R-P+nV), and a weighted combination of P, and a local-regression prediction (termed MAP-W). The procedures were tested by means of split-sample analysis, using data from three cities included in the Nationwide Urban Runoff Program: Denver, Colorado; Bellevue, Washington; and Knoxville, Tennessee. The MAP that provided the greatest predictive accuracy for the verification data set differed among the three test data bases and among model types (MAP-W for Denver and Knoxville, MAP-lF-P and MAP-R-P for Bellevue load models, and MAP-R-P+nV for Bellevue concentration models) and, in many cases, was not clearly indicated by the values of standard error of estimate for the calibration data set. A scheme to guide MAP selection, based on exploratory data analysis of the calibration data set, is presented and tested. The MAP?s were tested for sensitivity to the size of a calibration data set. As expected, predictive accuracy of all MAP?s for

  12. A simple model for farmland nitrogen loss to surface runoff with raindrop driven process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, J.; Li, J.

    2016-12-01

    It has been widely recognized that surface runoff from the agricultural fields is an important source of non-point source pollution (NPSP). Moreover, as the agricultural country with the largest nitrogen fertilizer production, import and consumption in the world, our nation should pay greater attention to the over-application and inefficient use of nitrogen (N) fertilizer, which may cause severe pollution both in surface water and groundwater. To figure out the transfer mechanism between the soil solution and surface runoff, lots of laboratory test were conducted and related models were established in this study. But little of them was carried out in field scale since a part of variables are hard to control and some uncontrollable natural factors including rainfall intensity, temperature, wind speeds, soil spatial heterogeneity etc., may affect the field experimental results. Despite that, field tests can better reflect the mechanism of soil chemical loss to surface runoff than laboratory experiments, and the latter tend to oversimplify the environmental conditions. Therefore, a physically based, nitrogen transport model was developed and tested with so called semi-field experiments (i.e., artificial rainfall instead of natural rainfall was applied in the test). Our model integrated both raindrop driven process and diffusion effect along with the simplified nitrogen chain reactions. The established model was solved numerically through the modified Hydrus-1d source code, and the model simulations closely agree with the experimental data. Furthermore, our model indicates that the depth of the exchange layer and raindrop induced water transfer rate are two important parameters, and they have different impacts on the simulation results. The study results can provide references for preventing and controlling agricultural NPSP.

  13. Effects of low-impact-development (LID) practices on streamflow, runoff quantity, and runoff quality in the Ipswich River Basin, Massachusetts-A Summary of field and modeling studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, Marc J.; Waldron, Marcus C.; Barbaro, Jeffrey R.; Sorenson, Jason R.

    2010-01-01

    Low-impact-development (LID) approaches are intended to create, retain, or restore natural hydrologic and water-quality conditions that may be affected by human alterations. Wide-scale implementation of LID techniques may offer the possibility of improving conditions in river basins, such as the Ipswich River Basin in Massachusetts, that have run dry during the summer because of groundwater withdrawals and drought. From 2005 to 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey, in a cooperative funding agreement with the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation, monitored small-scale installations of LID enhancements designed to diminish the effects of storm runoff on the quantity and quality of surface water and groundwater. Funding for the studies also was contributed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Targeted Watersheds Grant Program through a financial assistance agreement with Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation. The monitoring studies examined the effects of * replacing an impervious parking-lot surface with a porous surface on groundwater quality, * installing rain gardens and porous pavement in a neighborhood of 3 acres on the quantity and quality of stormwater runoff, and * installing a 3,000-ft2 (square-foot) green roof on the quantity and quality of rainfall-generated roof runoff. In addition to these small-scale installations, the U.S. Geological Survey's Ipswich River Basin model was used to simulate the basin-wide effects on streamflow of several changes: broad-scale implementation of LID techniques, reduced water-supply withdrawals, and water-conservation measures. Water-supply and conservation scenarios for application in model simulations were developed with the assistance of two technical advisory committees that included representatives of State agencies responsible for water resources, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Geological Survey, water suppliers, and non-governmental organizations. From June

  14. Estimation of Model and Parameter Uncertainty For A Distributed Rainfall-runoff Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engeland, K.

    The distributed rainfall-runoff model Ecomag is applied as a regional model for nine catchments in the NOPEX area in Sweden. Ecomag calculates streamflow on a daily time resolution. The posterior distribution of the model parameters is conditioned on the observed streamflow in all nine catchments, and calculated using Bayesian statistics. The distribution is estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The Bayesian method requires a definition of the likelihood of the parameters. Two alter- native formulations are used. The first formulation is a subjectively chosen objective function describing the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow as it is used in the GLUE framework. The second formulation is to use a more statis- tically correct likelihood function that describes the simulation errors. The simulation error is defined as the difference between log-transformed observed and simulated streamflows. A statistical model for the simulation errors is constructed. Some param- eters are dependent on the catchment, while others depend on climate. The statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. Confidence intervals, due to the uncertainty of the Ecomag parameters, for the simulated streamflow are compared for the two likelihood functions. Confidence intervals based on the statis- tical model for the simulation errors are also calculated. The results indicate that the parameter uncertainty depends on the formulation of the likelihood function. The sub- jectively chosen likelihood function gives relatively wide confidence intervals whereas the 'statistical' likelihood function gives more narrow confidence intervals. The statis- tical model for the simulation errors indicates that the structural errors of the model are as least as important as the parameter uncertainty.

  15. Hourly runoff forecasting for flood risk management: Application of various computational intelligence models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badrzadeh, Honey; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Jayawardena, A. W.

    2015-10-01

    Reliable river flow forecasts play a key role in flood risk mitigation. Among different approaches of river flow forecasting, data driven approaches have become increasingly popular in recent years due to their minimum information requirements and ability to simulate nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of hydrological processes. In this study, attempts are made to apply four different types of data driven approaches, namely traditional artificial neural networks (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), wavelet neural networks (WNN), and, hybrid ANFIS with multi resolution analysis using wavelets (WNF). Developed models applied for real time flood forecasting at Casino station on Richmond River, Australia which is highly prone to flooding. Hourly rainfall and runoff data were used to drive the models which have been used for forecasting with 1, 6, 12, 24, 36 and 48 h lead-time. The performance of models further improved by adding an upstream river flow data (Wiangaree station), as another effective input. All models perform satisfactorily up to 12 h lead-time. However, the hybrid wavelet-based models significantly outperforming the ANFIS and ANN models in the longer lead-time forecasting. The results confirm the robustness of the proposed structure of the hybrid models for real time runoff forecasting in the study area.

  16. A characterization of Greenland Ice Sheet surface melt and runoff in contemporary reanalyses and a regional climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard eCullather

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available For the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS, large-scale melt area has increased in recent years and is detectable via remote sensing, but its relation to runoff is not known. Historical, modeled melt area and runoff from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-Replay, the Interim Re-Analysis of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-I, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR, the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR, and the Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR are examined. These sources compare favorably with satellite-derived estimates of surface melt area for the period 2000-2012. Spatially, the models markedly disagree on the number of melt days in the interior of the southern part of the ice sheet, and on the extent of persistent melt areas in the northeastern GrIS. Temporally, the models agree on the mean seasonality of daily surface melt and on the timing of large-scale melt events in 2012. In contrast, the models disagree on the amount, seasonality, spatial distribution, and temporal variability of runoff. As compared to global reanalyses, time series from MAR indicate a lower correlation between runoff and melt area (r2 = 0.805. Runoff in MAR is much larger in the second half of the melt season for all drainage basins, while the ASR indicates larger runoff in the first half of the year. This difference in seasonality for the MAR and to an extent for the ASR provide a hysteresis in the relation between runoff and melt area, which is not found in the other models. The comparison points to a need for reliable observations of surface runoff.

  17. Bayesian uncertainty assessment of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins for conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sikorska, A. E.; Scheidegger, A.; Banasik, K.; Rieckermann, J.

    2012-04-01

    Urbanization and the resulting land-use change strongly affect the water cycle and runoff-processes in watersheds. Unfortunately, small urban watersheds, which are most affected by urban sprawl, are mostly ungauged. This makes it intrinsically difficult to assess the consequences of urbanization. Most of all, it is unclear how to reliably assess the predictive uncertainty given the structural deficits of the applied models. In this study, we therefore investigate the uncertainty of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins from structurally uncertain rainfall-runoff models. To this end, we suggest a procedure to explicitly account for input uncertainty and model structure deficits using Bayesian statistics with a continuous-time autoregressive error model. In addition, we propose a concise procedure to derive prior parameter distributions from base data and successfully apply the methodology to an urban catchment in Warsaw, Poland. Based on our results, we are able to demonstrate that the autoregressive error model greatly helps to meet the statistical assumptions and to compute reliable prediction intervals. In our study, we found that predicted peak flows were up to 7 times higher than observations. This was reduced to 5 times with Bayesian updating, using only few discharge measurements. In addition, our analysis suggests that imprecise rainfall information and model structure deficits contribute mostly to the total prediction uncertainty. In the future, flood predictions in ungauged basins will become more important due to ongoing urbanization as well as anthropogenic and climatic changes. Thus, providing reliable measures of uncertainty is crucial to support decision making.

  18. Modelled seasonal forecasts of snow water equivalent and runoff in alpine catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Förster, Kristian; Hanzer, Florian; Schöber, Johannes; Huttenlau, Matthias; Achleitner, Stefan; Strasser, Ulrich

    2016-04-01

    Seasonal forecasts of water balance components are becoming increasingly important for hydrological applications. These forecasts are typically derived from coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models, which enable physically based seasonal forecasts. In mountainous regions, however, topography is complex whilst typical spatial resolutions of the climate models are still comparably coarse, i.e in the data, ridges and valleys are not represented with sufficient accuracy. Therefore, seasonal predictions of atmospheric variables require consideration of representative gradients. We present first results of seasonal forecasts and re-forecasts processed by the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). These are prepared for monthly time steps in order to be used for ensemble runs of water balance simulation using the Alpine Water balance And Runoff Estimation model (AWARE). This model has been designed for monthly seasonal predictions in ice- and snowmelt dominated catchments. The study area is the Inn catchment in Tyrol/Austria, including its headwaters in Switzerland. Results are evaluated for both anomalies of meteorological input data (temperature and precipitation), as well as balance components including snow water equivalent and runoff, both simulated with AWARE. Based on model skill evaluations derived from forecasts and observations, the model chain CFSv2 - AWARE proves helpful to analyse possible future hydrological system states of mountainous catchments with emphasis on spatio-temporal snow cover evolution.

  19. CONFIGURATION GENERATOR MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. Alsaed

    2004-11-18

    ''The Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report'' prescribes an approach to the methodology for performing postclosure criticality analyses within the monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. An essential component of the methodology is the ''Configuration Generator Model for In-Package Criticality'' that provides a tool to evaluate the probabilities of degraded configurations achieving a critical state. The configuration generator model is a risk-informed, performance-based process for evaluating the criticality potential of degraded configurations in the monitored geologic repository. The method uses event tree methods to define configuration classes derived from criticality scenarios and to identify configuration class characteristics (parameters, ranges, etc.). The probabilities of achieving the various configuration classes are derived in part from probability density functions for degradation parameters. The NRC has issued ''Safety Evaluation Report for Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report, Revision 0''. That report contained 28 open items that required resolution through additional documentation. Of the 28 open items, numbers 5, 6, 9, 10, 18, and 19 were concerned with a previously proposed software approach to the configuration generator methodology and, in particular, the k{sub eff} regression analysis associated with the methodology. However, the use of a k{sub eff} regression analysis is not part of the current configuration generator methodology and, thus, the referenced open items are no longer considered applicable and will not be further addressed.

  20. Modelling Snowmelt Runoff under Climate Change Scenarios in an Ungauged Mountainous Watershed, Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonggang Ma

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available An integrated modeling system has been developed for analyzing the impact of climate change on snowmelt runoff in Kaidu Watershed, Northwest China. The system couples Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3 outputs with Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM. The SRM was verified against observed discharge for outlet hydrological station of the watershed during the period from April to September in 2001 and generally performed well for Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (EF and water balance coefficient (RE. The EF is approximately over 0.8, and the water balance error is lower than ± 10%, indicating reasonable prediction accuracy. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM was used to downscale coarse outputs of HadCM3, and then the downscaled future climate data were used as inputs of the SRM. Four scenarios were considered for analyzing the climate change impact on snowmelt flow in the Kaidu Watershed. And the results indicated that watershed hydrology would alter under different climate change scenarios. The stream flow in spring is likely to increase with the increased mean temperature; the discharge and peck flow in summer decrease with the decreased precipitation under Scenarios 1 and 2. Moreover, the consideration of the change in cryosphere area would intensify the variability of stream flow under Scenarios 3 and 4. The modeling results provide useful decision support for water resources management.

  1. Snowmelt and runoff modelling of an Arctic hydrological basin in west Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bøggild, C. E.; Knudby, C. J.; Knudsen, M. B.; Starzer, W.

    1999-09-01

    This paper compares the performance of a conceptual modelling system and several physically-based models for predicting runoff in a large hydrological basin, Tasersuaq, in west Greenland. This basin, which is typical of many Greenland basins, is interesting because of the fast hydrological response to changing conditions. Due to the predominance of exposed bedrock surface and only minor occurrence of sediments and organic soils, there is little restraint to run-off, making the treatment of the snowmelt component of primary importance.Presently a conceptual modelling system, HBV, is applied in Greenland and also in most of the arctic regions of Scandinavia for operational forecasting. A general wish to use hydrological models for other purposes, such as to improve data collection and to gain insight into the hydrological processes has promoted interest in the more physically-based hydrological models. In this paper, two degree-day models, the Danish version of the physically-based SHE distributed hydrological modelling system (MIKE SHE) and the conceptual HBV model are compared with a new model that links MIKE SHE and a distributed energy balance model developed for this study, APUT.The HBV model performs the best overall simulation of discharge, which presently makes it most suited for general forecasting. The combination of MIKE SHE and APUT i.e. a physically based modelling system shows promising results by improving the timing of the initiation of spring flood, but does not perform as well throughout the remaining part of the snowmelt season. The modelling study shows that local parameters such as the snow depletion curve, the temporal snow albedo and perhaps also melt water storage need to be more precisely determined from field studies before physically-based modelling can be improved.

  2. Modeling Greenland ice sheet present-day and near-future runoff contribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peano, Daniele; Colleoni, Florence; Masina, Simona

    2014-05-01

    The last IPCC report [AR5, IPCC] has shown an increasing contribution from Greenland melting to global sea-level over the last decade, increasing from 0.09 mm/year (period 1992-2001) to 0.59 mm/year (period 2002-2011). Given its strategic location, i.e. close to the main North Atlantic ocean convection sites, it is therefore of importance to better assess ice sheet melting and its impact on regional ocean processes. So far, runoff estimate from ice sheet has been poorly constrained (e.g. [Hanna et al., 2005], [Hanna et al., 2008]) and most of the time the few estimates comes from regional atmospheric models or general circulation models (e.g. [Edwards et al., 2013], [Fettweis et al., 2013]). Here, we present the results from the implementation of a routing scheme into the thermo-mechanical ice sheet-ice shelves model GRISLI [Ritz et al, 2001], applied to the Greenland ice sheet mass evolution over the 20th and 21st centuries. The routing scheme is based on the "multiple flow direction" developed by [Quinn et al., 1991]. We further improved this scheme by considering topographic depressions as possible "lakes" to be filled by meltwater. In this way, when a depression is filled, only the extra water is routed towards the Greenland coasts. This allow us to obtain an estimate of the total amount of freshwater reaching the ocean at each time step of the model integration, as well as a time-varying spatial distribution of the runoff along the coasts of Greenland. This routing scheme is applied in routing both surface and basal meltwater. Surface meltwater is computed by means of a PDD method [Fausto et al., 2007] on which only a fraction is considered for routing while the basal melting rate is part of the heat balance at the ice-bed interface. Runoff is simulated on a 5km x 5km horizontal grid and validation is performed over the 20th century using mean annual total precipitation and air temperature at 2 meters from Era-Interim reanalysis [Dee et al., 2011]. Near future

  3. A case study demonstrating analysis of stormflows, concentrations, and loads of nutrients in highway runoff and swale discharge with the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granato, Gregory; Jones, Susan C.

    2015-01-01

    Decisionmakers need information about the quality and quantity of stormwater runoff, the risk for adverse effects of runoff on receiving waters, and the potential effectiveness of mitigation measures to reduce these risks. The Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) uses Monte Carlo methods to generate stormflows, concentrations, and loads from a highway site and an upstream basin to provide needed risk-based information. SELDM was designed to help inform water-management decisions for streams and lakes receiving runoff from a highway or other land-use site. The purpose of this paper is to provide a brief description of SELDM and a hypothetical case study demonstrating the type of risk-based information that SELDM can provide. Total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were selected as example constituents because nutrients are a common concern throughout the Nation and data for receiving waters, highway runoff, and the performance of best management practices (BMPs) are readily available for these constituents. 

  4. Rainfall-runoff modelling of the Okavango River catchment to assess impacts of land use change on runoff and downstream ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milzow, Christian; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2010-05-01

    The competition between human water use and ecosystem water use is one of the major challenges for water resources management at the global scale. We analyse the situation for the Okavango River basin of southern Africa. The Okavango River is representative for many large rivers throughout the developing world in that it is ungauged and poorly studied. The Okavango basin - spanning over Angola, Namibia and Botswana - represents a multi-objective problem in an international setting. Economic benefits of agricultural development and conservation of ecosystem services call for opposed actions. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model of the Okavango catchment is set up using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model is sufficiently physically based to simulate the impact on runoff of extent of agricultural use, crop types and management practices. Precipitation and temperature inputs are taken from datasets covering large parts of the globe. The methodology can thus easily be applied for other ungauged catchments. For temperature we use the ERA-Interim reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and for precipitation the Famine Early Warning Systems Network data (FEWS-Net). Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data resulted in poor model performance compared to the FEWS-Net data. Presently, the upstream catchment in Angola is largely pristine and agriculture is basically restricted to dry land subsistence farming. But economic growth in Angola is likely to result in agricultural development and consequent impacts on catchment runoff. Land use scenarios that are simulated include large scale irrigated agriculture with water extractions from the river and the shallow aquifer. Climate change impacts are also studied and compared to land use change impacts. The downstream part of the basin consists of the large Okavango Wetlands, which are a biodiversity hotspot of global importance and, through tourism, an important

  5. Comparing the impact of time displaced and biased precipitation estimates for online updated urban runoff models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2013-01-01

    When an online runoff model is updated from system measurements, the requirements of the precipitation input change. Using rain gauge data as precipitation input there will be a displacement between the time when the rain hits the gauge and the time where the rain hits the actual catchment, due...... to the time it takes for the rain cell to travel from the rain gauge to the catchment. Since this time displacement is not present for system measurements the data assimilation scheme might already have updated the model to include the impact from the particular rain cell when the rain data is forced upon...... the model, which therefore will end up including the same rain twice in the model run. This paper compares forecast accuracy of updated models when using time displaced rain input to that of rain input with constant biases. This is done using a simple time-area model and historic rain series that are either...

  6. Comparison of two stochastic techniques for reliable urban runoff prediction by modeling systematic errors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Del Giudice, Dario; Löwe, Roland; Madsen, Henrik;

    2015-01-01

    provide probabilistic predictions of wastewater discharge in a similarly reliable way, both for periods ranging from a few hours up to more than 1 week ahead of time. The EBD produces more accurate predictions on long horizons but relies on computationally heavy MCMC routines for parameter inferences......In urban rainfall-runoff, commonly applied statistical techniques for uncertainty quantification mostly ignore systematic output errors originating from simplified models and erroneous inputs. Consequently, the resulting predictive uncertainty is often unreliable. Our objective is to present two...

  7. How far can we go in hydrological modelling without any knowledge of runoff formation processes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayzel, Georgy

    2016-04-01

    Hydrological modelling is a challenging scientific issue for the last 50 years and tend to be it further because of the highest level of runoff formation processes complexity at the different spatio-temporal scales. Enormous number of modelling-related papers have submitted to the top-ranked journals every year, but in this publication speed race authors have pay increasing attention to the models and data they use by itself rather than underlying watershed processes. Great community effort of the free and open-source models sharing with high availability of hydrometeorological data sources led to conceptual shifting paradigm of hydrological science to the technical-oriented direction. In the third-world countries this shifting is more clear by the reason of field studies absence and obligatory requirement of practical significance of the research supported by the government funds. As a result we get a state of hydrological modelling discipline closer to the aim of high Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) achievement rather than watershed processes understanding. Both lumped physically-based land-surface model SWAP (Soil Water - Atmosphere - Plants) and SCE-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution method developed at The University of Arizona) technique for robust model parameters search were used for the runoff modelling of 323 MOPEX watersheds. No one special data analysis and expert knowledge-based decisions were not performed. Median value of NSE is 0.652 and 90% of watersheds have efficiency bigger than 0.5. Thus without any information of particular features of each watershed satisfactory modelling results were obtained. To prove our conclusions we build cutting-edge conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on decision trees and adaptive boosting machine learning algorithms for the one small watershed in USA. No one special data analysis or feature engineering was not performed too. Obtained results demonstrate great model prediction power both for learning and testing

  8. Quantitative Assessment of Agricultural Runoff and Soil Erosion Using Mathematical Modeling: Applications in the Mediterranean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arhonditsis, G.; Giourga, C.; Loumou, A.; Koulouri, M.

    2002-09-01

    Three mathematical models, the runoff curve number equation, the universal soil loss equation, and the mass response functions, were evaluated for predicting nonpoint source nutrient loading from agricultural watersheds of the Mediterranean region. These methodologies were applied to a catchment, the gulf of Gera Basin, that is a typical terrestrial ecosystem of the islands of the Aegean archipelago. The calibration of the model parameters was based on data from experimental plots from which edge-of-field losses of sediment, water runoff, and nutrients were measured. Special emphasis was given to the transport of dissolved and solid-phase nutrients from their sources in the farmers' fields to the outlet of the watershed in order to estimate respective attenuation rates. It was found that nonpoint nutrient loading due to surface losses was high during winter, the contribution being between 50% and 80% of the total annual nutrient losses from the terrestrial ecosystem. The good fit between simulated and experimental data supports the view that these modeling procedures should be considered as reliable and effective methodological tools in Mediterranean areas for evaluating potential control measures, such as management practices for soil and water conservation and changes in land uses, aimed at diminishing soil loss and nutrient delivery to surface waters. Furthermore, the modifications of the general mathematical formulations and the experimental values of the model parameters provided by the study can be used in further application of these methodologies in watersheds with similar characteristics.

  9. The influence of forest roads on runoff generation and soil erosion -- an assessment based on small scale rainfall simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zemke, Julian J.

    2016-04-01

    In the course of forestry operations such as pruning and harvesting, a dense network of forest roads and skid trails has to be established. Due to mostly insufficient soil protective measures, the frequent overpassing of previously undisturbed topsoil with heavy forestry equipment on skid trails generates severe soil compaction. On persistent forest roads, the constructional layout and fortification also cause an increase of soil density. As a result of soil compaction, infiltration capacities are significantly reduced. Therefore, the affected areas tend to generate overland flow much quicker than undisturbed soil and differ considerably from the adjacent forest topsoil. As a consequence, decentral water retention on the watershed scale can be affected, if the road network is too dense and/or covers too much of the catchment's surface. Another consequence is the increase of soil erosion rates caused by erosive overland flows and the removal of vegetation cover on roads and skid trails. Again, the road and path surfaces differ significantly from adjacent forest soils where soil erosion rates normally tend to be equal or less than the soil renewal rates. To quantify the influence of forest roads and skid trails on runoff generation and soil erosion rates in a forested catchment area, rainfall simulations were carried out. A small scale rainfall simulator with a plot area of 0,64 m2 was used to simulate rainfall events with an intensity of 45 mm/h, a duration of 3 x 30 minutes and a kinetic energy of 4,6 J/m2*mm. Overland flow and eroded material were collected in a high temporal resolution of 1 minute. The sampled roads and skid trails were differentiated and categorized according to their constructional layout. Beyond that, rutted and unrutted road areas were distinguished. To obtain a benchmark for natural soil characteristics, undisturbed forest soils were also examined. The results show a significant influence of traffic induced soil compaction on the

  10. Predicting in ungauged basins using a parsimonious rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skaugen, Thomas; Olav Peerebom, Ivar; Nilsson, Anna

    2015-04-01

    Prediction in ungauged basins is a demanding, but necessary test for hydrological model structures. Ideally, the relationship between model parameters and catchment characteristics (CC) should be hydrologically justifiable. Many studies, however, report on failure to obtain significant correlations between model parameters and CCs. Under the hypothesis that the lack of correlations stems from non-identifiability of model parameters caused by overparameterization, the relatively new parameter parsimonious DDD (Distance Distribution Dynamics) model was tested for predictions in ungauged basins in Norway. In DDD, the capacity of the subsurface water reservoir M is the only parameter to be calibrated whereas the runoff dynamics is completely parameterised from observed characteristics derived from GIS and runoff recession analysis. Water is conveyed through the soils to the river network by waves with celerities determined by the level of saturation in the catchment. The distributions of distances between points in the catchment to the nearest river reach and of the river network give, together with the celerities, distributions of travel times, and, consequently unit hydrographs. DDD has 6 parameters less to calibrate in the runoff module than, for example, the well-known Swedish HBV model. In this study, multiple regression equations relating CCs and model parameters were trained from 84 calibrated catchments located all over Norway and all model parameters showed significant correlations with catchment characteristics. The significant correlation coefficients (with p- value < 0.05) ranged from 0.22-0.55. The suitability of DDD for predictions in ungauged basins was tested for 17 catchments not used to estimate the multiple regression equations. For 10 of the 17 catchments, deviations in Nash-Suthcliffe Efficiency (NSE) criteria between the calibrated and regionalised model were less than 0.1. The median NSE for the regionalised DDD for the 17 catchments, for two

  11. Approximating uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield using stochastic replicates of global climate model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peel, M. C.; Srikanthan, R.; McMahon, T. A.; Karoly, D. J.

    2015-04-01

    Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between global climate models (GCMs) and within a GCM. Within-GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The limited number of runs available for each GCM and scenario combination within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) data sets, limits the assessment of within-GCM uncertainty. In this second of two companion papers, the primary aim is to present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty for monthly precipitation and temperature projections and to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff for climate change impact assessments. A secondary aim is to assess the impact of between-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff. Here we approximate within-GCM uncertainty by developing non-stationary stochastic replicates of GCM monthly precipitation and temperature data. These replicates are input to an off-line hydrologic model to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected annual runoff and reservoir yield. We adopt stochastic replicates of available GCM runs to approximate within-GCM uncertainty because large ensembles, hundreds of runs, for a given GCM and scenario are unavailable, other than the Climateprediction.net data set for the Hadley Centre GCM. To date within-GCM uncertainty has received little attention in the hydrologic climate change impact literature and this analysis provides an approximation of the uncertainty in projected runoff, and reservoir yield, due to within- and between-GCM uncertainty of precipitation and temperature projections. In the companion paper, McMahon et al. (2015) sought to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by removing poorly performing GCMs, resulting in a selection of five better performing GCMs from

  12. Evaluating the effects of model structure and meteorological input data on runoff modelling in an alpine headwater basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schattan, Paul; Bellinger, Johannes; Förster, Kristian; Schöber, Johannes; Huttenlau, Matthias; Kirnbauer, Robert; Achleitner, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Modelling water resources in snow-dominated mountainous catchments is challenging due to both, short concentration times and a highly variable contribution of snow melt in space and time from complex terrain. A number of model setups exist ranging from physically based models to conceptional models which do not attempt to represent the natural processes in a physically meaningful way. Within the flood forecasting system for the Tyrolean Inn River two serially linked hydrological models with differing process representation are used. Non- glacierized catchments are modelled by a semi-distributed, water balance model (HQsim) based on the HRU-approach. A fully-distributed energy and mass balance model (SES), purpose-built for snow- and icemelt, is used for highly glacierized headwater catchments. Previous work revealed uncertainties and limitations within the models' structures regarding (i) the representation of snow processes in HQsim, (ii) the runoff routing of SES, and (iii) the spatial resolution of the meteorological input data in both models. To overcome these limitations, a "strengths driven" model coupling is applied. Instead of linking the models serially, a vertical one-way coupling of models has been implemented. The fully-distributed snow modelling of SES is combined with the semi-distributed HQsim structure, allowing to benefit from soil and runoff routing schemes in HQsim. A monte-carlo based modelling experiment was set up to evaluate the resulting differences in the runoff prediction due to the improved model coupling and a refined spatial resolution of the meteorological forcing. The experiment design follows a gradient of spatial discretisation of hydrological processes and meteorological forcing data with a total of six different model setups for the alpine headwater basin of the Fagge River in the Tyrolean Alps. In general, all setups show a good performance for this particular basin. It is therefore planned to include other basins with differing

  13. Fire effects on runoff generation and sediment yield from a coarse-textured sagebrush-dominated landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post-fire increases in runoff and sediment yield from sagebrush rangelands are commonly attributed to fire-induced soil water repellency and/or reduction in canopy and ground cover. Recent research has demonstrated the strength of soil water repellency and its influence on runoff and sediment gener...

  14. Global evaluation of runoff from 10 state-of-the-art hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Hylke E.; van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; de Roo, Ad; Dutra, Emanuel; Fink, Gabriel; Orth, Rene; Schellekens, Jaap

    2017-06-01

    Observed streamflow data from 966 medium sized catchments (1000-5000 km2) around the globe were used to comprehensively evaluate the daily runoff estimates (1979-2012) of six global hydrological models (GHMs) and four land surface models (LSMs) produced as part of tier-1 of the eartH2Observe project. The models were all driven by the WATCH Forcing Data ERA-Interim (WFDEI) meteorological dataset, but used different datasets for non-meteorologic inputs and were run at various spatial and temporal resolutions, although all data were re-sampled to a common 0. 5° spatial and daily temporal resolution. For the evaluation, we used a broad range of performance metrics related to important aspects of the hydrograph. We found pronounced inter-model performance differences, underscoring the importance of hydrological model uncertainty in addition to climate input uncertainty, for example in studies assessing the hydrological impacts of climate change. The uncalibrated GHMs were found to perform, on average, better than the uncalibrated LSMs in snow-dominated regions, while the ensemble mean was found to perform only slightly worse than the best (calibrated) model. The inclusion of less-accurate models did not appreciably degrade the ensemble performance. Overall, we argue that more effort should be devoted on calibrating and regionalizing the parameters of macro-scale models. We further found that, despite adjustments using gauge observations, the WFDEI precipitation data still contain substantial biases that propagate into the simulated runoff. The early bias in the spring snowmelt peak exhibited by most models is probably primarily due to the widespread precipitation underestimation at high northern latitudes.

  15. Application Of Global Sensitivity Analysis And Uncertainty Quantification In Dynamic Modelling Of Micropollutants In Stormwater Runoff

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2012-01-01

    . The analysis is based on the combination of variance-decomposition Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) with the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) technique. The GSA-GLUE approach highlights the correlation between the model factors defining the mass of pollutant in the system......The need for estimating micropollutants fluxes in stormwater systems increases the role of stormwater quality models as support for urban water managers, although the application of such models is affected by high uncertainty. This study presents a procedure for identifying the major sources...... of uncertainty in a conceptual lumped dynamic stormwater runoff quality model that is used in a study catchment to estimate (i) copper loads, (ii) compliance with dissolved Cu concentration limits on stormwater discharge and (iii) the fraction of Cu loads potentially intercepted by a planned treatment facility...

  16. Regional drought assessment using a distributed hydrological model coupled with Standardized Runoff Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, H.; Yuan, F.; Ren, L.; Ma, M.; Kong, H.; Tong, R.

    2015-05-01

    Drought assessment is essential for coping with frequent droughts nowadays. Owing to the large spatio-temporal variations in hydrometeorology in most regions in China, it is very necessary to use a physically-based hydrological model to produce rational spatial and temporal distributions of hydro-meteorological variables for drought assessment. In this study, the large-scale distributed hydrological model Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) was coupled with a modified standardized runoff index (SRI) for drought assessment in the Weihe River basin, northwest China. The result indicates that the coupled model is capable of reasonably reproducing the spatial distribution of drought occurrence. It reflected the spatial heterogeneity of regional drought and improved the physical mechanism of SRI. This model also has potential for drought forecasting, early warning and mitigation, given that accurate meteorological forcing data are available.

  17. Simultaneous Assimilation of Multiple Data into a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model using Variational Methods for Hydrological Forecasting Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanenberg, D.; Alvarado Montero, R.; Sensoy Sorman, A.; Krahe, P.

    2015-12-01

    Data assimilation methods applied to hydrological applications have primarily focused on assimilating streamflow and, more recently, soil moisture observations. Few cases actually assimilate both observations, and even fewer incorporate additional observations into the assimilation procedure. This is despite extensive developments in remote sensing information. Most research on data assimilation has focused on the implementation of sequential assimilation using Kalman filters. We present an alternative approach using variational methods based on Moving Horizon Estimation (MHE) to simultaneously assimilate streamflow data and remote sensing information obtained from the Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) community, namely snow-covered area, snow water equivalent and soil moisture. This approach enables a highly flexible formulation of distance metrics for the introduction of noise into the model and the agreement between simulated and observed variables. The application of MHE on data assimilation is tested at two data-dense test sites in Germany and one data-sparse environment in Turkey. The assessment of results is based on the lead time performance of state variables of the conceptual rainfall-runoff model, i.e. not limited to the performance of streamflow forecast but also applicable to snow and soil moisture forecast skills. Results show a potential improvement on the performance of the forecasted streamflow when using a perfect time series of state variables generated through the simulation of the conceptual rainfall-runoff model HBV. The assimilation of H-SAF data, in combination with streamflow, reduces the performance of the forecasted streamflow compared to the assimilation using only streamflow data. However, other forecasted quantities such as the snow water equivalent or soil moisture are improved. Recommendations based on the test cases are given following the length of the assimilation

  18. A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Gosling

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM. Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and developmental conditions. These include the Liard (Canada, Mekong (SE Asia, Okavango (SW Africa, Rio Grande (Brazil, Xiangxi (China and Harper's Brook (UK. A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09 is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs include SLURP v. 12.2 (Liard, SLURP v. 12.7 (Mekong, Pitman (Okavango, MGB-IPH (Rio Grande, AV-SWAT-X 2005 (Xiangxi and Cat-PDM (Harper's Brook. The CHMs typically simulate water resource impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM and the CHMs include river routing, whereas the GHM does not. Simulations of mean annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5 and low (Q95 monthly runoff under baseline (1961–1990 and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1 prescribed increases in global-mean air temperature of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 °C relative to baseline from the UKMO HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM to explore response to different amounts of climate forcing, and (2 a prescribed increase in global-mean air temperature of 2.0 °C relative to baseline for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model structural uncertainty.

    We find that the differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM (e.g. an absolute GHM-CHM difference in mean annual runoff percentage change for UKMO HadCM3 2 °C warming of up to 25%, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low monthly runoff

  19. Modeling Rainfall-Runoff Response to Land Use and Land Cover Change in Rwanda (1990–2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fidele Karamage

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Stormwater runoff poses serious environmental problems and public health issues in Rwanda, a tropical country that is increasingly suffering from severe floods, landslides, soil erosion and water pollution. Using the WetSpa Extension model, this study assessed the changes in rainfall runoff depth in Rwanda from 1990 to 2016 in response to precipitation and land use changes. Our results show that Rwanda has experienced a significant conversion of natural forest and grassland to cropland and built-up areas. During the period 1990–2016, 7090.02 km2 (64.5% and 1715.26 km2 (32.1% of forest and grassland covers were lost, respectively, while the cropland and built-up areas increased by 135.3% (8503.75 km2 and 304.3% (355.02 km2, respectively. According to our estimates, the land use change effect resulted in a national mean runoff depth increase of 2.33 mm/year (0.38%. Although precipitation change affected the inter-annual fluctuation of runoff, the long-term trend of runoff was dominated by land use change. The top five districts that experienced the annual runoff depth increase (all >3.8 mm/year are Rubavu, Nyabihu, Ngororero, Gakenke, and Musanze. Their annual runoff depths increased at a rate of >3.8 mm/year during the past 27 years, due to severe deforestation (ranging from 62% to 85% and cropland expansion (ranging from 123% to 293%. These areas require high priority in runoff control using terracing in croplands and rainwater harvesting systems such as dam/reservoirs, percolation tanks, storage tanks, etc. The wet season runoff was three times higher than the dry season runoff in Rwanda; appropriate rainwater management and reservation could provide valuable irrigation water for the dry season or drought years (late rainfall onsets or early rainfall cessations. It was estimated that a reservation of 30.5% (3.99 km3 of the runoff in the wet season could meet the cropland irrigation water gap during the dry season in 2016.

  20. Modeling manure-borne bromide and fecal coliform transport with runoff and infiltration at a hillslope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouznetsov, M Y; Roodsari, R; Pachepsky, Y A; Shelton, D R; Sadeghi, A M; Shirmohammadi, A; Starr, J L

    2007-08-01

    Hillslope vegetated buffers are recommended to prevent water pollution from agricultural runoff. However, models to predict the efficacy of different grass buffer designs are lacking. The objective of this work was to develop and test a mechanistic model of coupled surface and subsurface flow and transport of bacteria and a conservative tracer on hillslopes. The testing should indicate what level of complexity and observation density might be needed to capture essential processes in the model. We combined the three-dimensional FEMWATER model of saturated-unsaturated subsurface flow with the Saint-Venant model for runoff. The model was tested with data on rainfall-induced fecal coliforms (FC) and bromide (Br) transport from manure applied at vegetated and bare 6-m long plots. The calibration of water retention parameters was unnecessary, and the same manure release parameters could be used both for simulations of Br and FC. Surface straining rates were similar for Br and bacteria. Simulations of Br and FC concentrations were least successful for the funnels closest to the source. This could be related to the finger-like flow of the manure from the strip along the bare slopes, to the transport of Br and FC with manure colloids that became strained at the grass slope, and to the presence of micro-ponds at the grassed slope. The two-dimensional model abstraction of the actual 3D transport worked well for flux-averaged concentrations. The model developed in this work is suitable to simulate surface and subsurface transport of agricultural contaminants on hillslopes and to evaluate efficiency of grass strip buffers, especially when lateral subsurface flow is important.

  1. Modeling middle and final flush effects of urban runoff pollution in an urbanizing catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Hua-peng; He, Kang-mao; Fu, Guangtao

    2016-03-01

    In current literature, the first flush effect of urban runoff pollution has been studied and reported extensively. However, the effects of middle and final flushes on pollutant flushing were not given much attention. In addition, few previous studies have discussed the suitability of the widely used exponential wash-off model for describing the middle or final flush processes. In this paper, the Shiyan River catchment, a typical rapidly urbanizing catchment in China, is chosen as a study area to analyze the effects of first, middle and final flushes based on monitoring hydrographs and pollutographs. In order to simulate the middle and final flush processes observed in storm events, a new, realistically simple, parsimonious model (named as logistic wash-off model) is developed with the assumption that surface pollutant loads available for wash-off increase with cumulative runoff volume following a logistic curve. The popular exponential wash-off model and the newly developed model are used and compared in simulating the flush processes in storm events. The results indicate that all the three types of pollutant flushing are observed in the experiment; however, the first flush effect is weak, while the middle and final flush effects are substantial. The exponential model has performed well in simulating the first flush process but failed to simulate well the middle and final flush processes. However, the logistic wash-off model has effectively simulated all the three types of pollutant flush, and particularly, it has performed better in simulating the middle and final flush processes than the exponential model.

  2. Assessing climate change impacts on runoff from karstic watersheds: NASA/GISS land-surface model improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blake, Reginald Alexander

    The off-line version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) land-surface hydrological model over- predicted run-off from the karstic Rio Cobre watershed in Jamaica. To assess possible climate change impacts on runoff from the watershed, the model's simulation of observed runoff was improved by adding to it a karst component that has pipe flow features. The improved model was tested on two other karstic watersheds (Yangtze - China and Rio Grande - USA) and the results were encouraging. The impacts that possible climate change may have on the three karstic watersheds were then assessed. The assessment indicates that in a doubled carbon dioxide climate, the Rio Cobre and the Rio Grande may experience decreases in runoff, especially in low flow periods. The Yangtze, on the other hand, may not experience decreases in total runoff, but its peak flow which now occurs in July may be attenuated and shifted to September. The results of the study also show that climate feedbacks convolute climate change assessments and that different results can be obtained from the same climate change scenario depending on the choice of the modeling methodology-that is, on whether the models are coupled or uncoupled.

  3. Simulation of Streamflow in a Discontinuous Permafrost Environment Using a Modified First-order, Nonlinear Rainfall-runoff Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolton, W. R.; Hinzman, L. D.

    2009-12-01

    The sub-arctic environment can be characterized by being located in the zone of discontinuous permafrost. Although the distribution of permafrost in this region is specific, it dominates the response of many of the hydrologic processes including stream flow, soil moisture dynamics, and water storage processes. In areas underlain by permafrost, ice-rich conditions at the permafrost table inhibit surface water percolation to the deep subsurface soils, resulting in an increased runoff generation generation during precipitation events, decreased baseflow between precipitation events, and relatively wetter soils compared to permafrost-free areas. Over the course of a summer season, the thawing of the active layer (the thin soil layer about the permafrost that seasonally freezes and thaws) increases the potential water holding capacity of the soil, resulting in a decreasing surface water contribution during precipitation events and a steadily increasing baseflow contribution between precipitation events. Simulation of stream flow in this region is challenging due to the rapidly changing thermal (permafrost versus non-permafrost, active layer development) and hydraulic (hydraulic conductivity and soil storage capacity) conditions in both time and space (x, y, and z-dimensions). Many of the factors that have a control on both permafrost distribution and the thawing/freezing of active layer (such as soil material, soil moisture, and ice content) are not easily quantified at scales beyond the point measurement. In this study, these issues are addressed through streamflow analysis - the only hydrologic process that is easily measured at the basin scale. Following the general procedure outlined in Kirchner (2008), a simple rainfall-runoff model was applied to three small head-water basins of varying permafrost coverage. A simple, first-order, non-linear differential equation that describes the storage-discharge relationship were derived from three years of stream flow data

  4. How useful are Green-Ampt parameters derived from small rainfall simulation plots for modelling runoff at different plot lengths?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langhans, Christoph; Engels, Lien; Tegenbos, Lize; Govers, Gerard; Diels, Jan

    2010-05-01

    Rainfall simulation on small field plots is an invaluable method to derive effective field parameters for infiltration models such as Green-Ampt. Plot scales of ca. 1m² integrate much of the micro-scale variability and processes, which ring-infiltrometers or soil core measurements cannot capture. However, these parameters have to be used with caution on larger scales, because processes such as run-on infiltration can be considerable. The Green-Ampt parameters suction across the wetting front (psi) and effective hydraulic conductivity (Ke) were estimated from rainfall simulations on two ridged fields in Togo, West Africa. Additionally, rainfall events were recorded, and on plots of 1m width and lengths of 1, 4 and 16m, total runoff volume and sediment concentration were measured. The storm runoff hydrographs of the plots were modelled with Chu's Green-Ampt variable rainfall intensity infiltration model, using the field-average parameters derived from the simulations. Potential effects of runoff lag time were assumed negligible. Calculated total runoff volumes were compared to measured runoff volumes. For the 1m plots, runoff was underestimated, as patches of seal in the furrows produced runoff already at rainfall intensities much lower than the average infiltration capacity. For the longer plots, no run-on infiltration or other scale dependent processes were assumed, so the relative error due to scale effects was proportional to the average difference or runoff depth. In contrast to the 1m plots, runoff was overestimated by a factor of 1.2 and 2 for the 4m and 16m plots, respectively. It appears that the application of the Green-Ampt effective hydraulic conductivity derived from rainfall simulations faces two main problems, which are their dependence on one single rainfall intensity and scale-effects by run-on infiltration. Errors necessarily propagate into the scale dependency of erosion and sediment transport, as these processes are directly dependent on runoff

  5. Laboratory Simulation of Urban Runoff and Estimation of Runoff Hydrographs with Experimental Curve Numbers Implemented in USEPA SWMM

    Science.gov (United States)

    The prognostic capabilities of a lumped hydrologic modeling approach may be complicated by routing and connectivity among infiltrative and impervious surfaces. We used artificial rainfall to generate runoff from impervious and bare soil boxes arranged in series to simulate differ...

  6. How would peak rainfall intensity affect runoff predictions using conceptual water balance models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, B.

    2015-06-01

    Most hydrological models use continuous daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration for streamflow estimation. With the projected increase in mean surface temperature, hydrological processes are set to intensify irrespective of the underlying changes to the mean precipitation. The effect of an increase in rainfall intensity on the long-term water balance is, however, not adequately accounted for in the commonly used hydrological models. This study follows from a previous comparative analysis of a non-stationary daily series of stream flow of a forested watershed (River Rimbaud) in the French Alps (area = 1.478 km2) (1966-2006). Non-stationarity in the recorded stream flow occurred as a result of a severe wild fire in 1990. Two daily models (AWBM and SimHyd) were initially calibrated for each of three distinct phases in relation to the well documented land disturbance. At the daily and monthly time scales, both models performed satisfactorily with the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) varying from 0.77 to 0.92. When aggregated to the annual time scale, both models underestimated the flow by about 22% with a reduced NSE at about 0.71. Exploratory data analysis was undertaken to relate daily peak hourly rainfall intensity to the discrepancy between the observed and modelled daily runoff amount. Preliminary results show that the effect of peak hourly rainfall intensity on runoff prediction is insignificant, and model performance is unlikely to improve when peak daily precipitation is included. Trend analysis indicated that the large decrease of precipitation when daily precipitation amount exceeded 10-20 mm may have contributed greatly to the decrease in stream flow of this forested watershed.

  7. Daily Runoff Simulation at River Network by the WWASS (Watershed Water balance And Stream flow Simulation) Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Hyun Young; Hwang, Cheol Sang; Kang, Seok Man; Lee, Kwang Ya [Rural Development Corp., Seoul (Korea)

    1998-08-31

    When various elements of water balance are displayed at several points of a river network, the runoff amounts at an estuary especially tidal influenced are affected from the elements. This problem can be solved by a model that can generalize and formulate the elements and simulate daily runoff and water requirement. The WWASS model was built using DIROM for the simulation of daily runoff and water requirement, and the water balance elements were modeled to be balanced at the each control point of river network. The model was calibrated, verified and applied to the watershed for the Saemankeum tidal land reclamation development project. It showed that the results from the stream flow simulation at the Mankyung and Dongjin estuary were acceptable for the design of the Saemankeum estuary reservoir. (author). 7 refs., 3 tabs., 8 figs.

  8. Rainfall-runoff modelling for estimating Latonyanda River flow contributions to Luvuvhu River downstream of Albasini Dam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odiyo, J. O.; Phangisa, J. I.; Makungo, R.

    Rainfall-runoff modelling was conducted to estimate the flows that Latonyanda River contribute to Luvuvhu River downstream of Albasini Dam. The confluence of Latonyanda and Luvuvhu Rivers is ungauged. The contributed flows compensate for upstream water abstractions and periodic lack of releases from Albasini Dam. The flow contributions from tributaries to Luvuvhu River are important for ecosystem sustenance, meeting downstream domestic and agricultural water demand and ecological water requirements particularly in Kruger National Park. The upper Latonyanda River Quaternary Catchment (LRQC), with streamflow gauging station number A9H027 was delineated and used for rainfall-runoff modelling. The simulation was done using Mike 11 NAM rainfall-runoff model. Calibration and verification runs of Mike 11 NAM rainfall-runoff model were carried out using data for periods of 4 and 2 years, respectively. The model was calibrated using shuffled complex evolution optimizer. The model efficiency was tested using coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), overall water balance error (OWBE) and percentage bias (PBIAS). The model parameters obtained from the upper LRQC were transferred and used together with rainfall and evaporation data for 40 years period in the simulation of runoff for the LRQC. The flows that Latonyanda River contribute to Luvuvhu River were computed by subtracting irrigation abstractions and runoff drained to Tshakhuma Dam from the simulated runoff time series of the LRQC. The observed and the simulated runoff showed similar trends and measures of performances for both calibration and verification runs fell within acceptable ranges. The pairs of values obtained for R2, RMSE, OWBE and PBIAS for calibration and verification were 0.86 and 0.73, 0.21 and 0.2, 2.1 and 1.3, and 4.1 and 3.4, respectively. The simulated runoff for LRQC correlated well with the areal rainfall showing that the results are reasonable. The mean and maximum daily

  9. Flood predictions using the parallel version of distributed numerical physical rainfall-runoff model TOPKAPI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyko, Oleksiy; Zheleznyak, Mark

    2015-04-01

    The original numerical code TOPKAPI-IMMS of the distributed rainfall-runoff model TOPKAPI ( Todini et al, 1996-2014) is developed and implemented in Ukraine. The parallel version of the code has been developed recently to be used on multiprocessors systems - multicore/processors PC and clusters. Algorithm is based on binary-tree decomposition of the watershed for the balancing of the amount of computation for all processors/cores. Message passing interface (MPI) protocol is used as a parallel computing framework. The numerical efficiency of the parallelization algorithms is demonstrated for the case studies for the flood predictions of the mountain watersheds of the Ukrainian Carpathian regions. The modeling results is compared with the predictions based on the lumped parameters models.

  10. Evapotranspiration and runoff from large land areas: Land surface hydrology for atmospheric general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Famiglietti, J. S.; Wood, Eric F.

    1993-01-01

    A land surface hydrology parameterization for use in atmospheric GCM's is presented. The parameterization incorporates subgrid scale variability in topography, soils, soil moisture and precipitation. The framework of the model is the statistical distribution of a topography-soils index, which controls the local water balance fluxes, and is therefore taken to represent the large land area. Spatially variable water balance fluxes are integrated with respect to the topography-soils index to yield our large topography-soils distribution, and interval responses are weighted by the probability of occurrence of the interval. Grid square averaged land surface fluxes result. The model functions independently as a macroscale water balance model. Runoff ratio and evapotranspiration efficiency parameterizations are derived and are shown to depend on the spatial variability of the above mentioned properties and processes, as well as the dynamics of land surface-atmosphere interactions.

  11. Simulation of daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations within the Cedar River Basin, Iowa, using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Daniel E.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, conducted a study to examine techniques for estimation of daily streamflows using hydrological models and statistical methods. This report focuses on the use of a hydrologic model, the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, to estimate daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, physically based, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on surface-water runoff and general basin hydrology. The Cedar River Basin was selected to construct a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model that simulates the period from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010. The calibration period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004, and the validation periods were from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010 and January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A Geographic Information System tool was used to delineate the Cedar River Basin and subbasins for the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and to derive parameters based on the physical geographical features. Calibration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was completed using a U.S. Geological Survey calibration software tool. The main objective of the calibration was to match the daily streamflow simulated by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model with streamflow measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. The Cedar River Basin daily streamflow model performed with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.82 to 0.33 during the calibration period, and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.77 to -0.04 during the validation period. The Cedar River Basin model is meeting the criteria of greater than 0.50 Nash-Sutcliffe and is a good fit for streamflow conditions for the calibration period at all but one location, Austin, Minnesota

  12. Bayesian uncertainty assessment of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins for conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Sikorska

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization and the resulting land-use change strongly affect the water cycle and runoff-processes in watersheds. Unfortunately, small urban watersheds, which are most affected by urban sprawl, are mostly ungauged. This makes it intrinsically difficult to assess the consequences of urbanization. Most of all, it is unclear how to reliably assess the predictive uncertainty given the structural deficits of the applied models. In this study, we therefore investigate the uncertainty of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins from structurally uncertain rainfall-runoff models. To this end, we suggest a procedure to explicitly account for input uncertainty and model structure deficits using Bayesian statistics with a continuous-time autoregressive error model. In addition, we propose a concise procedure to derive prior parameter distributions from base data and successfully apply the methodology to an urban catchment in Warsaw, Poland. Based on our results, we are able to demonstrate that the autoregressive error model greatly helps to meet the statistical assumptions and to compute reliable prediction intervals. In our study, we found that predicted peak flows were up to 7 times higher than observations. This was reduced by 150% with Bayesian updating, using only a few discharge measurements. In addition, our analysis suggests that imprecise rainfall information and model structure deficits contribute mostly to the total prediction uncertainty. In the future, flood predictions in ungauged basins will become more important due to ongoing urbanization as well as anthropogenic and climatic changes. Thus, providing reliable measures of uncertainty is crucial to support decision making.

  13. Bayesian uncertainty assessment of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins for conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Sikorska

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization and the resulting land-use change strongly affect the water cycle and runoff-processes in watersheds. Unfortunately, small urban watersheds, which are most affected by urban sprawl, are mostly ungauged. This makes it intrinsically difficult to assess the consequences of urbanization. Most of all, it is unclear how to reliably assess the predictive uncertainty given the structural deficits of the applied models. In this study, we therefore investigate the uncertainty of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins from structurally uncertain rainfall-runoff models. To this end, we suggest a procedure to explicitly account for input uncertainty and model structure deficits using Bayesian statistics with a continuous-time autoregressive error model. In addition, we propose a concise procedure to derive prior parameter distributions from base data and successfully apply the methodology to an urban catchment in Warsaw, Poland. Based on our results, we are able to demonstrate that the autoregressive error model greatly helps to meet the statistical assumptions and to compute reliable prediction intervals. In our study, we found that predicted peak flows were up to 7 times higher than observations. This was reduced to 5 times with Bayesian updating, using only few discharge measurements. In addition, our analysis suggests that imprecise rainfall information and model structure deficits contribute mostly to the total prediction uncertainty. In the future, flood predictions in ungauged basins will become more important due to ongoing urbanization as well as anthropogenic and climatic changes. Thus, providing reliable measures of uncertainty is crucial to support decision making.

  14. Modeling runoff and runon in a desert shrubland ecosystem, Jornada Basin, New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howes, David A.; Abrahams, Athol D.

    2003-07-01

    A new two-dimensional (2D) distributed parameter model is developed to simulate overland flow in two small, semiarid shrubland watersheds in the Jornada Basin, southern New Mexico. The model is event-based and represents the watershed by an array of 1-m 2 cells, in which the cell size is approximately equal to the average area of the shrubs. In the model, flow directions and volumes are computed by a second-order predictor-corrector finite difference scheme, which is employed to solve the 2D kinematic wave equation. Thus, flow routing is computed implicitly and may vary in response to flow conditions. The model uses only six parameters for which values are obtained from field surveys and rainfall simulation experiments. The model underpredicts runoff from the watersheds because the measured values of saturated hydraulic conductivity Ks for intershrub areas are too high. The likely reason for this overestimation is that values of Ks were obtained from runoff plot experiments conducted at the beginning of summer on surfaces with degraded seals, whereas most summer storms occur on surfaces that have experienced recent rainfall and have well-developed seals. Model performance is much improved when Ks is treated as a calibration parameter. The importance of runon infiltration in supplying water to shrubs is investigated for a range of rainfall and antecedent soil moisture conditions. On average, runon infiltration accounts for between 3% and 20% of the total infiltration under a shrub. The most favorable conditions for runon infiltration are an initially wet soil and a low mean rainfall rate.

  15. Using artificial neural network approach for modelling rainfall–runoff due to typhoon

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S M Chen; Y M Wang; I Tsou

    2013-04-01

    In Taiwan, owing to the nonuniform temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall and high mountains all over the country, hydrologic systems are very complex. Therefore, preventing and controlling flood disasters is imperative. Nevertheless, water level and flow records are essential in hydrological analysis for designing related water works of flood management. Due to the complexity of the hydrological process, reliable runoff is hardly predicted by applying linear and non-linear regression methods. Therefore, in this study, a model for estimating runoff by using rainfall data from a river basin is developed and a neural network technique is employed to recover missing data. For achieving the objectives, hourly rainfall and flow data from Nanhe, Taiwu, and Laii rainfall stations and Sinpi flow station in the Linbien basin are used. The data records were of 27 typhoons between the years 2005 and 2009. The feed forward back propagation network (FFBP) and conventional regression analysis (CRA) were employed to study their performances. From the statistical evaluation, it has been found that the performance of FFBP exceeded that of regression analysis as reflected by the determination coefficients 2, which were 0.969 and 0.284 for FFBP and CRA, respectively.

  16. A Physically Based Runoff Model Analysis of the Querétaro River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Javier Villa Alvarado

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Today the knowledge of physical parameters of a basin is essential to know adequately the rainfall-runoff process; it is well known that the specific characteristics of each basin such as temperature, geographical location, and elevation above sea level affect the maximum discharge and the basin time response. In this paper a physically based model has been applied, to analyze water balance by evaluating the volume rainfall-runoff using SHETRAN and hydrometric data measurements in 2003. The results have been compared with five ETp different methodologies in the Querétaro river basin in central Mexico. With these results the main effort of the authorities should be directed to better control of land-use changes and to working permanently in the analysis of the related parameters, which will have a similar behavior to changes currently being introduced and presented in observed values in this basin. This methodology can be a strong base for sustainable water management in a basin, the prognosis and effect of land-use changes, and availability of water and also can be used to determine application of known basin parameters, basically depending on land-use, land-use changes, and climatological database to determine the water balance in a basin.

  17. Application of a simple first-order, non-linear rainfall-runoff model in watersheds of varying permafrost coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolton, W. Robert; Hinzman, Larry

    2010-05-01

    The arctic and sub-arctic environments can be characterized as being in the zones continuous and discontinuous permafrost. Although the distribution of permafrost in these regions is site specific, it is the major control on many of the hydrologic processes including stream flow, soil moisture dynamics, and water storage processes. In areas underlain by permafrost, ice-rich soils a the permafrost table inhibit surface water percolation to the deep subsurface soils, resulting in an increased runoff generation during precipitation events (including snow melt), decreased baseflow between precipitation events, and relatively wetter soils compared to permafrost-free areas. Over the course of a summer season, the thawing of the active layer (the thin soil layer above the permafrost that seasonally freezes and thaws) increases the potential water holding capacity of the soil, resulting in a decreasing surface water contribution during precipitation events and a steadily increasing baseflow between precipitation events. The major challenge to hydrologic modeling in permafrost affected environments is accounting for the rapid spatial and temporal changes in the soil storage component with the thawing and freezing of the active layer and distribution of permafrost. Simulation of the storage storage component is further complicated as many of the variables that control the development of the active layer (and permafrost distribution) are not easily measurable beyond the point scale. Examples of these variables include soil material, soil moisture content, soil ice content, snow cover and depth, and surface temperature. Kirchner (2009) describes a method in which the total storage of a watershed can be derived directly from discharge measurements - the only hydrologic process that is easily measured at the watershed scale. Following the general procedure outlined by Kirchner, a simple rainfall-runoff model was developed and applied to basins of various scales and permafrost

  18. Multi-objective calibration of a spatially semi-distributed rainfall runoff model and its snow water equivalent module.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valent, Peter; Výleta, Roman; Danáčová, Michaela; Sleziak, Patrik; Kotríková, Katarína

    2016-04-01

    The snow cover is an important environmental and water management factor in mid latitudes. From the water management point of view the impact of the water accumulated in the snow cover is significant mainly during the spring season when it's melting causes a significant flooding threat when melting is accompanied by precipitation (rain on snow floods). Modelling of spatial and temporal distribution of the snow water equivalent is therefore an important component of rainfall-runoff models. The main objective of this work was to study the possibility to include information on the spatial distribution of the snow cover into runoff modelling and evaluate the quality of the simulation of both of the snow water equivalent and catchment runoff. A conceptual semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model was used in order to model the snow water equivalent in a daily time step. In order to calibrate and validate the model a multi-calibration techniques were used taking into account both runoff from the catchment and the observed values of the snow water equivalents and snow heights in elevation and vegetation zones. The multi-objective calibration linearly combines two optimization functions and aggregates them into one. While the first optimization function compares observed and simulated flows, the second one is based on an indirect comparison of a snow water equivalent simulated by a rainfall-runoff model and the snow cover heights measured in rainfall gauges within the catchment. The aim of the paper is to optimize the ratio of the weights in the optimization. The methodology was tested on the Upper Hron River catchment, which could be considered as a mountainous catchment.

  19. A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Gosling

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM. Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and developmental conditions. These include the Liard (Canada, Mekong (SE Asia, Okavango (SW Africa, Rio Grande (Brazil, Xiangxi (China and Harper's Brook (UK. A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09 is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs include SLURP v. 12.2 (Liard, SLURP v. 12.7 (Mekong, Pitman (Okavango, MGB-IPH (Rio Grande, AV-SWAT-X 2005 (Xiangxi and Cat-PDM (Harper's Brook. Simulations of mean annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5 and low (Q95 monthly runoff under baseline (1961–1990 and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1 prescribed increases in global-mean air temperature of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 °C relative to baseline from the UKMO HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM to explore response to different amounts of climate forcing, and (2 a prescribed increase in global-mean air temperature of 2.0 °C relative to baseline for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model structural uncertainty.

    We find that the differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low monthly runoff. However, they are relatively small in comparison to the range of projections across the seven GCMs. Hence, for the six catchments and seven GCMs we considered, climate model structural uncertainty is greater than the uncertainty associated with the type of hydrological model applied. Moreover, shifts in the seasonal cycle of runoff

  20. Calibration of a rainfall-runoff hydrological model and flood simulation using data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piacentini, A.; Ricci, S. M.; Thual, O.; Coustau, M.; Marchandise, A.

    2010-12-01

    Rainfall-runoff models are crucial tools for long-term assessment of flash floods or real-time forecasting. This work focuses on the calibration of a distributed parsimonious event-based rainfall-runoff model using data assimilation. The model combines a SCS-derived runoff model and a Lag and Route routing model for each cell of a regular grid mesh. The SCS-derived runoff model is parametrized by the initial water deficit, the discharge coefficient for the soil reservoir and a lagged discharge coefficient. The Lag and Route routing model is parametrized by the velocity of travel and the lag parameter. These parameters are assumed to be constant for a given catchment except for the initial water deficit and the velocity travel that are event-dependent (landuse, soil type and moisture initial conditions). In the present work, a BLUE filtering technique was used to calibrate the initial water deficit and the velocity travel for each flood event assimilating the first available discharge measurements at the catchment outlet. The advantages of the BLUE algorithm are its low computational cost and its convenient implementation, especially in the context of the calibration of a reduced number of parameters. The assimilation algorithm was applied on two Mediterranean catchment areas of different size and dynamics: Gardon d'Anduze and Lez. The Lez catchment, of 114 km2 drainage area, is located upstream Montpellier. It is a karstic catchment mainly affected by floods in autumn during intense rainstorms with short Lag-times and high discharge peaks (up to 480 m3.s-1 in September 2005). The Gardon d'Anduze catchment, mostly granite and schistose, of 545 km2 drainage area, lies over the departements of Lozère and Gard. It is often affected by flash and devasting floods (up to 3000 m3.s-1 in September 2002). The discharge observations at the beginning of the flood event are assimilated so that the BLUE algorithm provides optimal values for the initial water deficit and the

  1. Storage dynamics in hydropedological units control hillslope connectivity, runoff generation, and the evolution of catchment transit time distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tetzlaff, D; Birkel, C; Dick, J; Geris, J; Soulsby, C

    2014-02-01

    We examined the storage dynamics and isotopic composition of soil water over 12 months in three hydropedological units in order to understand runoff generation in a montane catchment. The units form classic catena sequences from freely draining podzols on steep upper hillslopes through peaty gleys in shallower lower slopes to deeper peats in the riparian zone. The peaty gleys and peats remained saturated throughout the year, while the podzols showed distinct wetting and drying cycles. In this region, most precipitation events are 80% of flow, even in large events, reflecting the displacement of water from the riparian soils that has been stored in the catchment for >2 years. These riparian areas are the key zone where different source waters mix. Our study is novel in showing that they act as "isostats," not only regulating the isotopic composition of stream water, but also integrating the transit time distribution for the catchment. Hillslope connectivity is controlled by small storage changes in soil unitsDifferent catchment source waters mix in large riparian wetland storageIsotopes show riparian wetlands set the catchment transit time distribution.

  2. Integration of Spatially Hydrological Modelling on Bentong Catchment, Pahang, Peninsular Malaysia Using Distributed GIS-based Rainfall Runoff Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosli, M.H.

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available With the advance of GIS technology, hydrology model can simulated at catchment wide scale. The objective is to integrate National Resource Conservation Service (NRCS Curve Number (CN with kinematic wave and manning’s equation using GIS to develop a simple GIS-based distributed model to simulate rainfall runoff in Bentong catchment. Model was built using Spatial Distributed Direct Hydrograph (SDDH concept and applying the time area (TA approach in presenting the predicted discharge hydrograph. The effective precipitation estimation was first calculated using the NRCS CN method. Then, the core maps that consists of digital elevation model (DEM, soil and land use map in grid. DEM was used to derive slope, flow direction and flow accumulation while soil and land use map used to derive roughness coefficient and CN. The overland velocity and channel velocity estimation derived from combination of kinematic wave theory with Manning’s equation. To capture the time frame, the travel time map was divided into isochrones in order to generate the TA histogram and finally. The creation of SDDH using the TA histogram which will lead to the estimation of travel time for the catchment. Simulated hydrograph was plotted together with the observed discharge for comparison. Six storm events used for model performance evaluation using statistical measure such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, percent bias (PBIAS and coefficient of determination (R2;. SDDH model performed quite well as NSE gave result ranging from 0.55 to 0.68 with mean of 0.6. PBIAS indicate that the model slightly over predicted compared to observed hydrograph with result ranges from -46.71 (the most over predicted to +4.83 (the most under predicted with average of -20.73%. R2; ranges between 0.55 to 0.82 with mean of 0.67. When comparing the time to peak, (tp, min, and peak discharge, (pd, m3/s, results gave NSEtp 0.82, PBIAStp 0.65, R2tp 0.32, NSEpd 0.95, PBIASpd 14.49 and R2pd 0

  3. Land leveling impact on surface runoff and soil losses: Estimation with coupled deterministic/stochastic models for a Québec agricultural field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagnon, Patrick; Chrétien, François; Thériault, Georges

    2017-01-01

    Land leveling impact on water quality had not received much attention for fields in humid continental climate. The objectives of this study were to isolate the impact of land leveling, performed on an agricultural field (Québec, Canada) in spring 2012, on runoff and TSS load and to make recommendations to attenuate adverse environmental impacts of land leveling, if any. A total of 66 runoff events, including 22 with total suspended sediments (TSS) load estimates, from 2010 to 2014 were analyzed. To this end, deterministic models were coupled to an adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to estimate the unknown distribution of the parameters representing the most important effects, namely land leveling, tillage, and crop cover. Simulated runoff events were generated by the hydrological model SWMM version 5 while simulated TSS loads were generated by an empirical equation based on the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation version 2 (RUSLE2). Thanks to the algorithm used, it was demonstrated that land leveling significantly decreased total runoff volume at least for the two following years. The impact on peak flow was mixed: land leveling significantly decreased peak flow for a typical stratiform rainfall event but the effect was unclear for a typical convective rainfall event. Based on 90% confidence interval, TSS load increased from 10 to 1000 times immediately after land leveling (spring 2012) compared to pre-land leveling events. The TSS load increase remained significant one year after land leveling, with TSS loads 5-20 times higher compared to pre-land leveling events. It would thus be recommended to grow crops with high ground coverage ratios coupled with cover crops during the year when land leveling is done. Sediment retention structures could also be installed at the beginning of the land leveling process to provide protection against the short term and delayed impact on water quality.

  4. Regression modeling of streamflow, baseflow, and runoff using geographic information systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yuanhong; Day, Rick L

    2009-02-01

    Regression models for predicting total streamflow (TSF), baseflow (TBF), and storm runoff (TRO) are needed for water resource planning and management. This study used 54 streams with >20 years of streamflow gaging station records during the period October 1971 to September 2001 in Pennsylvania and partitioned TSF into TBF and TRO. TBF was considered a surrogate of groundwater recharge for basins. Regression models for predicting basin-wide TSF, TBF, and TRO were developed under three scenarios that varied in regression variables used for model development. Regression variables representing basin geomorphological, geological, soil, and climatic characteristics were estimated using geographic information systems. All regression models for TSF, TBF, and TRO had R(2) values >0.94 and reasonable prediction errors. The two best TSF models developed under scenarios 1 and 2 had similar absolute prediction errors. The same was true for the two best TBF models. Therefore, any one of the two best TSF and TBF models could be used for respective flow prediction depending on variable availability. The TRO model developed under scenario 1 had smaller absolute prediction errors than that developed under scenario 2. Simplified Area-alone models developed under scenario 3 might be used when variables for using best models are not available, but had lower R(2) values and higher or more variable prediction errors than the best models.

  5. Treatment of precipitation uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modelling: a fuzzy set approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskey, Shreedhar; Guinot, Vincent; Price, Roland K.

    2004-09-01

    The uncertainty in forecasted precipitation remains a major source of uncertainty in real time flood forecasting. Precipitation uncertainty consists of uncertainty in (i) the magnitude, (ii) temporal distribution, and (iii) spatial distribution of the precipitation. This paper presents a methodology for propagating the precipitation uncertainty through a deterministic rainfall-runoff-routing model for flood forecasting. It uses fuzzy set theory combined with genetic algorithms. The uncertainty due to the unknown temporal distribution of the precipitation is achieved by disaggregation of the precipitation into subperiods. The methodology based on fuzzy set theory is particularly useful where a probabilistic forecast of precipitation is not available. A catchment model of the Klodzko valley (Poland) built with HEC-1 and HEC-HMS was used for the application. The results showed that the output uncertainty due to the uncertain temporal distribution of precipitation can be significantly dominant over the uncertainty due to the uncertain quantity of precipitation.

  6. [Impact of changes in land use and climate on the runoff in Liuxihe Watershed based on SWAT model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Yu-zhi; Zhang, Zheng-dong; Meng, Jin-hua

    2015-04-01

    SWAT model, an extensively used distributed hydrological model, was used to quantitatively analyze the influences of changes in land use and climate on the runoff at watershed scale. Liuxihe Watershed' s SWAT model was established and three scenarios were set. The calibration and validation at three hydrological stations of Wenquan, Taipingchang and Nangang showed that the three factors of Wenquan station just only reached the standard in validated period, and the other two stations had relative error (RE) 0.8 and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency valve (Ens) > 0.75, suggesting that SWAT model was appropriate for simulating runoff response to land use change and climate variability in Liuxihe watershed. According to the integrated scenario simulation, the annual runoff increased by 11.23 m3 x s(-1) from 2001 to 2010 compared with the baseline period from 1991 to 2000, among which, the land use change caused an annual runoff reduction of 0.62 m3 x s(-1), whereas climate variability caused an annual runoff increase of 11.85 m3 x s(-1). Apparently, the impact of climate variability was stronger than that of land use change. On the other hand, the scenario simulation of extreme land use showed that compared with the land use in 2000, the annual runoff of the farmland scenario and the grassland scenario increased by 2.7% and 0.5% respectively, while that of the forest land scenario were reduced by 0.7%, which suggested that forest land had an ability of diversion closure. Furthermore, the scenario simulation of climatic variability indicated that the change of river runoff correlated positively with precipitation change (increase of 11.6% in annual runoff with increase of 10% in annual precipitation) , but negatively with air temperature change (reduction of 0.8% in annual runoff with increase of 1 degrees C in annual mean air temperature), which showed that the impact of precipitation variability was stronger than that of air temperature change. Therefore, in face of climate

  7. Impact of the calibration period on the conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameter estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todorovic, Andrijana; Plavsic, Jasna

    2015-04-01

    A conceptual rainfall-runoff model is defined by its structure and parameters, which are commonly inferred through model calibration. Parameter estimates depend on objective function(s), optimisation method, and calibration period. Model calibration over different periods may result in dissimilar parameter estimates, while model efficiency decreases outside calibration period. Problem of model (parameter) transferability, which conditions reliability of hydrologic simulations, has been investigated for decades. In this paper, dependence of the parameter estimates and model performance on calibration period is analysed. The main question that is addressed is: are there any changes in optimised parameters and model efficiency that can be linked to the changes in hydrologic or meteorological variables (flow, precipitation and temperature)? Conceptual, semi-distributed HBV-light model is calibrated over five-year periods shifted by a year (sliding time windows). Length of the calibration periods is selected to enable identification of all parameters. One water year of model warm-up precedes every simulation, which starts with the beginning of a water year. The model is calibrated using the built-in GAP optimisation algorithm. The objective function used for calibration is composed of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for flows and logarithms of flows, and volumetric error, all of which participate in the composite objective function with approximately equal weights. Same prior parameter ranges are used in all simulations. The model is calibrated against flows observed at the Slovac stream gauge on the Kolubara River in Serbia (records from 1954 to 2013). There are no trends in precipitation nor in flows, however, there is a statistically significant increasing trend in temperatures at this catchment. Parameter variability across the calibration periods is quantified in terms of standard deviations of normalised parameters, enabling detection of the most variable parameters

  8. Tank Model Application for Runoff and Infiltration Analysis on Sub-Watersheds in Lalindu River in South East Sulawesi Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirdhana Ahmad, Sitti

    2017-05-01

    Improper land management often causes flood, this is due to uncontrolled runoff. Runoff is affected by the management of the land cover. The phenomena also occurred in South East Sulawesi, Indonesia. This study aims to analyze the flow rate of water in watershed of Lalindu River in North Konawe, South East Sulawesi by using a Tank Model. The model determined the magnitude of the hydrologic runoff, infiltration capacity and soil water content several land uses were evaluated in the study area. The experimental and calculation results show that the runoff in the forest is 2,639.21 mm/year, in the reed is 2,517.05 mm/year, in the oil palm with a slope more than 45% is 2,715.36 mm/year, and in the oil palm with slopes less than 45% is 2,709.59 mm/year. Infiltration in the forest is 30.70 mm/year, in the reed is 7.51 mm/year, in the palm oil with a slope more than 45% is 24.13 mm/year and in the palm oil with slopes less than 45% is 29.67 mm/year. Runoff contributes to stream flow for water availability.

  9. A model for simulating the influence of a spatial distribution of large circular macropores on surface runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Léonard, J.; Perrier, E.; de Marsily, G.

    2001-12-01

    This paper reports the development and test, at the scale of 1 m2, of an event- based model that aims at simulating the influence of a spatial distribution of large circular macropores on surface runoff. The main originality of this model is that it focuses on the way macropores are supplied with water at the soil surface, by coupling an original model for water interception by individual macropores to a high-resolution spatialized overland flow model. A three-step evaluation of the model was carried out, involving (1) an experimental test of the model for water interception by macropores; (2) a sensitivity analysis of the model to time and space discretization; and (3) a comparison between numerical and field results in the case of runoff on a crusted soil surface with a population of large macropores made by termites in the Sahel. The model was found to accurately simulate the effect of a spatial distribution of large macropores on runoff, and it showed that small heterogeneities, like macropores or areas where a crust has been destroyed, which cover a very limited proportion of the soil surface, can have a high impact on runoff.

  10. Multi-scale modeling of the response of runoff to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Di Chong-Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With global warming, climate change has tremendously changed the hydrological processes. To discover the non-linear trend of the natural runoff and its response to precipitation and temperature in the Yellow River Basin, the non-linear relationships among the runoff, precipitation and temperature are analyzed by the wavelet decomposition and reconstruction methods, partial correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis. The main findings of this study are: (1 The annual natural runoff, precipitation and temperature have the similar periods (27-year, 12-year, which indicates that the periodicity of the natural annual runoff has closely relationship with the regional climate change. (2 The annual runoff, precipitation and temperature exhibit five patterns non-linear variations at five time scales (1, 2, 4, 8, 16 years, that is to say, their non-linear trends are scale-dependent with time. (3 The annual natural runoff has a significant positive correlation with the precipitation and has a negative correlation with temperature. In addition, the runoff variation is more sensitive to change in precipitation than the change in temperature at all the five time scales. (4 Although the runoff and the climate change factors have non-linear trends at different time scales, the runoff has linear correlation with the temperature and the precipitation, especially at a large time scale.

  11. Metal concentrations in soil and seepage water due to infiltration of roof runoff by long term numerical modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, J; Dierkes, C; Göbel, P; Klinger, C; Stubbe, H; Coldewey, W G

    2005-01-01

    The qualitative effects of stormwater infiltration on soil and seepage water are investigated with long term numerical modelling. The retention behaviour of different soils and materials used in infiltration devices is determined with batch and column tests. Results of the laboratory tests are adsorption isotherms which represent input data for numerical transport modelling. The long term simulations are performed with combinations of different solutions (types of roof runoff) and infiltration devices (swale and trench) under different hydrogeological conditions. The presented results contain the infiltration of low polluted roof runoff, runoff from a roof with zinc sheets and from a roof with copper sheets concerning the heavy metals zinc, copper and lead. The increase of concentrations in the infiltration body is high. For the infiltrated water, the results show a migration to groundwater only for the low adsorbing soil.

  12. Improving catchment scale water quality modelling with continuous high resolution monitoring of metals in runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saari, Markus; Rossi, Pekka; Blomberg von der Geest, Kalle; Mäkinen, Ari; Postila, Heini; Marttila, Hannu

    2017-04-01

    High metal concentrations in natural waters is one of the key environmental and health problems globally. Continuous in-situ analysis of metals from runoff water is technically challenging but essential for the better understanding of processes which lead to pollutant transport. Currently, typical analytical methods for monitoring elements in liquids are off-line laboratory methods such as ICP-OES (Inductively Coupled Plasma Optical Emission Spectroscopy) and ICP-MS (ICP combined with a mass spectrometer). Disadvantage of the both techniques is time consuming sample collection, preparation, and off-line analysis at laboratory conditions. Thus use of these techniques lack possibility for real-time monitoring of element transport. We combined a novel high resolution on-line metal concentration monitoring with catchment scale physical hydrological modelling in Mustijoki river in Southern Finland in order to study dynamics of processes and form a predictive warning system for leaching of metals. A novel on-line measurement technique based on micro plasma emission spectroscopy (MPES) is tested for on-line detection of selected elements (e.g. Na, Mg, Al, K, Ca, Fe, Ni, Cu, Cd and Pb) in runoff waters. The preliminary results indicate that MPES can sufficiently detect and monitor metal concentrations from river water. Water and Soil Assessment Tool (SWAT) catchment scale model was further calibrated with high resolution metal concentration data. We show that by combining high resolution monitoring and catchment scale physical based modelling, further process studies and creation of early warning systems, for example to optimization of drinking water uptake from rivers, can be achieved.

  13. Longitudinal Inter-Comparison of Modeled and Measured West Greenland Ice Sheet Meltwater Runoff Losses (2004-2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moustafa, S.; Rennermalm, A. K.; Tedesco, M.; Mote, T. L.; Koenig, L.; Smith, L. C.; Hagedorn, B.; Overeem, I.; Sletten, R. S.; Mikkelsen, A. B.; Hasholt, B.; Hall, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    Increased surface meltwater runoff, that exits the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) margin via supra-, en-, and sub-glacial drainage networks into fjords, pro-glacial lakes and rivers, accounts for half or more of total mass loss. Despite its importance, modeled meltwater runoff fluxes are poorly constrained, primarily due to a lack of direct in situ observations. Here, we present the first ever longitudinal (north-south) inter-comparison of a multi-year dataset (2004-2014) of discharge for four drainage basins - Watson, Akuliarusiarsuup Kuua, Naujat Kuat, and North Rivers - along West Greenland. These in situ hydrologic measurements are compared with modeled runoff output from Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) regional climate model, and the performance of the model is examined. An analysis of the relationship between modeled and actual ice sheet runoff patterns is assessed, and provides insight into the model's ability to capture inter-annual and intra-annual variability, spatiotemporal patterns, and extreme melt events. This study's findings will inform future development and parameterization of ice sheet surface mass balance models.

  14. Coupling machine learning with mechanistic models to study runoff production and river flow at the hillslope scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marçais, J.; Gupta, H. V.; De Dreuzy, J. R.; Troch, P. A. A.

    2016-12-01

    Geomorphological structure and geological heterogeneity of hillslopes are major controls on runoff responses. The diversity of hillslopes (morphological shapes and geological structures) on one hand, and the highly non linear runoff mechanism response on the other hand, make it difficult to transpose what has been learnt at one specific hillslope to another. Therefore, making reliable predictions on runoff appearance or river flow for a given hillslope is a challenge. Applying a classic model calibration (based on inverse problems technique) requires doing it for each specific hillslope and having some data available for calibration. When applied to thousands of cases it cannot always be promoted. Here we propose a novel modeling framework based on coupling process based models with data based approach. First we develop a mechanistic model, based on hillslope storage Boussinesq equations (Troch et al. 2003), able to model non linear runoff responses to rainfall at the hillslope scale. Second we set up a model database, representing thousands of non calibrated simulations. These simulations investigate different hillslope shapes (real ones obtained by analyzing 5m digital elevation model of Brittany and synthetic ones), different hillslope geological structures (i.e. different parametrizations) and different hydrologic forcing terms (i.e. different infiltration chronicles). Then, we use this model library to train a machine learning model on this physically based database. Machine learning model performance is then assessed by a classic validating phase (testing it on new hillslopes and comparing machine learning with mechanistic outputs). Finally we use this machine learning model to learn what are the hillslope properties controlling runoffs. This methodology will be further tested combining synthetic datasets with real ones.

  15. Snow/ice melt precipitation runoff modelling of glaciers in the Bhutan himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payer, T.; Leber, D.; Haeusler, H.; Brauner, M.; Wangda, D.

    2003-04-01

    After the 1994 outburst of the Luggye glacier lake in Northern Bhutan, the Royal Bhutanese Government initiated a project on GLOF risk reduction and mitigation measures in the Pho River headwaters. The approach to model snow/ice melt and precipitation of this high mountain system with few measured data only was a request of this integrated geoscientific project. The size of the test area for runoff modelling is about 50 km2 and comprises an interlinked glacier system of 3 glaciers and moraine dammed glacier lakes. The model proposed for the Luggye catchment area is based on records from a nearby weather station at Thanza (4150 m altitude) available for the years 2000-2001, a high resolution digital elevation model and the total surface discharge of the Luggye test area, calculated from the Luggye outlet hydrograph. Using the digital elevation model, the catchment area and the surface of the glaciers, up to 7000 m altitude, was divided into 100-meter elevation layers. Precipitation and mean air temperature from Thanza were extrapolated according to the best fitting results. Prominent single temperature and precipitation “events” recorded at Thanza can be related to discharge “events” in the Luggye hydrograph and allow for calculation of time lag and lapse rates. The modelled discharge is calculated as the total of the three simulated components, namely base flow, melt water from snow and ice, and precipitation. The model proposed can be interactively evaluated by best fitting of the model hydrograph to the measured hydrograph. This simulation was achieved using temperature lapse rates of -0.4 to -0.45 °C/100 m during the summer monsoon period, a degree/day factor of 6 to 8 l/(m2*day*°C), and the decrease of precipitation with approximately 7% per 100-meter altitude. Although many assumptions have to be taken for non-extreme weather conditions, the very good correlation of 0.97 between runoff modelling and the real discharge hydrograph highlights the

  16. Integration of UAV photogrammetry and SPH modelling of fluids to study runoff on real terrains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barreiro, Anxo; Domínguez, Jose M; C Crespo, Alejandro J; González-Jorge, Higinio; Roca, David; Gómez-Gesteira, Moncho

    2014-01-01

    Roads can experience runoff problems due to the intense rain discharge associated to severe storms. Two advanced tools are combined to analyse the interaction of complex water flows with real terrains. UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) photogrammetry is employed to obtain accurate topographic information on small areas, typically on the order of a few hectares. The Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) technique is applied by means of the DualSPHysics model to compute the trajectory of the water flow during extreme rain events. The use of engineering solutions to palliate flood events is also analysed. The study case simulates how the collected water can flow into a close road and how precautionary measures can be effective to drain water under extreme conditions. The amount of water arriving at the road is calculated under different protection scenarios and the efficiency of a ditch is observed to decrease when sedimentation reduces its depth.

  17. Integration of UAV photogrammetry and SPH modelling of fluids to study runoff on real terrains.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anxo Barreiro

    Full Text Available Roads can experience runoff problems due to the intense rain discharge associated to severe storms. Two advanced tools are combined to analyse the interaction of complex water flows with real terrains. UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle photogrammetry is employed to obtain accurate topographic information on small areas, typically on the order of a few hectares. The Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH technique is applied by means of the DualSPHysics model to compute the trajectory of the water flow during extreme rain events. The use of engineering solutions to palliate flood events is also analysed. The study case simulates how the collected water can flow into a close road and how precautionary measures can be effective to drain water under extreme conditions. The amount of water arriving at the road is calculated under different protection scenarios and the efficiency of a ditch is observed to decrease when sedimentation reduces its depth.

  18. Regional validity of the parameters of a distributed runoff-erosion model in the semi-arid region of Brazil

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SRINIVASAN; Vajapeyam; Srirangachar; PAIVA; Fernanda; Maria; de; Lima

    2009-01-01

    The present paper examines the validity of the application of a distributed rainfall-runoff-erosion model on a regional basis in a semi-arid region of Brazil. The model tested is known as WESP (Water Erosion Simulation Program) developed by Lopes (1987). The model simulates the hydrograph and the sediment graph for individual events and thus, the model when properly calibrated can serve as a predictive tool for runoff and soil erosion on an individual or a continuous basis. The possibility of the existence of regionally applicable values for the parameters of the model WESP would be very interesting from the point of view of predictability of runoff and soil erosion from ungauged basins in the region. For this purpose, data collected in several experimental units in the experimental basin of Sumé as well as in the experimental basin of So Joo de Cariri have been used. The model was calibrated and validated in each of the experimental units (consisting of erosion plots and micro-basins) and the average value from all of the units for each of the parameters was considered to be the regional value. With these average values, all the events in all the experimental units were simulated. The results show that the runoff and erosion values simulated with this single parameter set were very good in all the units, being well within the acceptable deviations.

  19. Stochastic empirical loading and dilution model for analysis of flows, concentrations, and loads of highway runoff constituents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granato, Gregory E.; Jones, Susan C.

    2014-01-01

    In cooperation with FHWA, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the stochastic empirical loading and dilution model (SELDM) to supersede the 1990 FHWA runoff quality model. The SELDM tool is designed to transform disparate and complex scientific data into meaningful information about the adverse risks of runoff on receiving waters, the potential need for mitigation measures, and the potential effectiveness of such measures for reducing such risks. The SELDM tool is easy to use because much of the information and data needed to run it are embedded in the model and obtained by defining the site location and five simple basin properties. Information and data from thousands of sites across the country were compiled to facilitate the use of the SELDM tool. A case study illustrates how to use the SELDM tool for conducting the types of sensitivity analyses needed to properly assess water quality risks. For example, the use of deterministic values to model upstream stormflows instead of representative variations in prestorm flow and runoff may substantially overestimate the proportion of highway runoff in downstream flows. Also, the risks for total phosphorus excursions are substantially affected by the selected criteria and the modeling methods used. For example, if a single deterministic concentration is used rather than a stochastic population of values to model upstream concentrations, then the percentage of water quality excursions in the downstream receiving waters may depend entirely on the selected upstream concentration.

  20. Regional validity of the parameters of a distributed runoff-erosion model in the semi-arid region of Brazil

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SRINIVASAN Vajapeyam Srirangachar; PAIVA Fernanda Maria de Lima

    2009-01-01

    The present paper examines the validity of the application of a distributed rainfall-runoff-erosion model on a regional basis in a semi-arid region of Brazil.The model tested is known as WESP (Water Erosion Simulation Program) developed by Lopes (1987).The model simulates the hydrograph and the sedi-ment graph for individual events and thus, the model when properly calibrated can serve as a predic-tive tool for runoff and soil erosion on an individual or a continuous basis.The possibility of the exis-tence of regionally applicable values for the parameters of the model WESP would be very interesting from the point of view of predictability of runoff and soil erosion from ungauged basins in the region.For this purpose, data collected in several experimental units in the experimental basin of Sume as well as in the experimental basin of Sao Joao de Cariri have been used.The model was calibrated and validated in each of the experimental units (consisting of erosion plots and micro-basins) and the av-erage value from all of the units for each of the parameters was considered to be the regional value.With these average values, all the events in all the experimental units were simulated.The results show that the runoff and erosion values simulated with this single parameter set were very good in all the units, being well within the acceptable deviations.

  1. Analysis of regional rainfall-runoff parameters for the Lake Michigan Diversion hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soong, David T.; Over, Thomas M.

    2015-01-01

    The Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting (LMDA) system has been developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District (USACE-Chicago) and the State of Illinois as a part of the interstate Great Lakes water regulatory program. The diverted Lake Michigan watershed is a 673-square-mile watershed that is comprised of the Chicago River and Calumet River watersheds. They originally drained into Lake Michigan, but now flow to the Mississippi River watershed via three canals constructed in the Chicago area in the early twentieth century. Approximately 393 square miles of the diverted watershed is ungaged, and the runoff from the ungaged portion of the diverted watershed has been estimated by the USACE-Chicago using the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) program. The accuracy of simulated runoff depends on the accuracy of the parameter set used in the HSPF program. Nine parameter sets comprised of the North Branch, Little Calumet, Des Plaines, Hickory Creek, CSSC, NIPC, 1999, CTE, and 2008 have been developed at different time periods and used by the USACE-Chicago. In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey and the USACE-Chicago collaboratively analyzed the parameter sets using nine gaged watersheds in or adjacent to the diverted watershed to assess the predictive accuracies of selected parameter sets. Six of the parameter sets, comprising North Branch, Hickory Creek, NIPC, 1999, CTE, and 2008, were applied to the nine gaged watersheds for evaluating their simulation accuracy from water years 1996 to 2011. The nine gaged watersheds were modeled by using the three LMDA land-cover types (grass, forest, and hydraulically connected imperviousness) based on the 2006 National Land Cover Database, and the latest meteorological and precipitation data consistent with the current (2014) LMDA modeling framework.

  2. Addressing subjective decision-making inherent in GLUE-based multi-criteria rainfall-runoff model calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafii, Mahyar; Tolson, Bryan; Shawn Matott, L.

    2015-04-01

    GLUE is one of the most commonly used informal methodologies for uncertainty estimation in hydrological modelling. Despite the ease-of-use of GLUE, it involves a number of subjective decisions such as the strategy for identifying the behavioural solutions. This study evaluates the impact of behavioural solution identification strategies in GLUE on the quality of model output uncertainty. Moreover, two new strategies are developed to objectively identify behavioural solutions. The first strategy considers Pareto-based ranking of parameter sets, while the second one is based on ranking the parameter sets based on an aggregated criterion. The proposed strategies, as well as the traditional strategies in the literature, are evaluated with respect to reliability (coverage of observations by the envelope of model outcomes) and sharpness (width of the envelope of model outcomes) in different numerical experiments. These experiments include multi-criteria calibration and uncertainty estimation of three rainfall-runoff models with different number of parameters. To demonstrate the importance of behavioural solution identification strategy more appropriately, GLUE is also compared with two other informal multi-criteria calibration and uncertainty estimation methods (Pareto optimization and DDS-AU). The results show that the model output uncertainty varies with the behavioural solution identification strategy, and furthermore, a robust GLUE implementation would require considering multiple behavioural solution identification strategies and choosing the one that generates the desired balance between sharpness and reliability. The proposed objective strategies prove to be the best options in most of the case studies investigated in this research. Implementing such an approach for a high-dimensional calibration problem enables GLUE to generate robust results in comparison with Pareto optimization and DDS-AU.

  3. Surface runoff scale effects in West African watersheds: Modeling and management options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giesen, van de N.C.; Stomph, T.J.; Ridder, de N.

    2005-01-01

    Measurements of surface runoff from uniform slopes of different lengths in West Africa have shown that longer slopes tend to have less runoff per unit of length than short slopes. The main reason for this scale effect is that once the rain stops, water on long slopes has more opportunity time to inf

  4. Rainfall–runoff model parameter estimation and uncertainty evaluation on small plots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Four seasonal rainfall simulations in 2009 and 2010were applied to a field containing 36 plots (0.75 × 2 m each), resulting in 144 runoff events. In all simulations, a constant rate of rainfall was applied then halted 60min after initiation of runoff, with plot-scale monitoring o...

  5. Modelling runoff and soil water content with the DR2-2013© SAGA v1.1 model at catchment scale under Mediterranean conditions (NE Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Vicente, Manuel, , Dr.; Palazón, M. Sc. Leticia; Quijano, M. Sc. Laura; Gaspar, Leticia, , Dr.; Navas, Ana, , Dr.

    2015-04-01

    Hydrological and soil erosion models allow mapping and quantifying spatially distributed rates of runoff depth and soil redistribution for different land uses, management and tillage practices and climatic scenarios. The different temporal and spatial [very small (1000 km2)] scales of numerical simulations make model selection specific to each range of scales. Additionally, the spatial resolution of the inputs is in agreement with the size of the study area. In this study, we run the GIS-based water balance DR2-2013© SAGA v1.1 model (freely downloaded as executable file at http://digital.csic.es/handle/10261/93543), in the Vandunchil stream catchment (23 km2; Ebro river basin, NE Spain). All input maps are generated at 5 x 5 m of cell size (924,573 pixels per map) allowing sound parameterization. Simulation is run at monthly scale with average climatic values. This catchment is an open hydrological system and it has a long history of human occupation, agricultural practices and water management. Numerous manmade infrastructures or landscape linear elements (LLEs: paved and unpaved trails, rock mounds in non-cultivated areas, disperse and small settlements, shallow and long drainage ditches, stone walls, small rock dams, fences and vegetation strips) appear throughout the hillslopes and streams and modify the natural runoff pathways and thus the hydrological and sediment connectivity. Rain-fed cereal fields occupy one third of the catchment area, 1% corresponds to sealed soils, and the remaining area is covered with Mediterranean forest, scrubland, pine afforestation and meadow. The parent material corresponds to Miocene sandstones and lutites and Holocene colluvial and alluvial deposits. The climate is continental Mediterranean with two humid periods, one in spring and a second in autumn that summarizes 63% of the total annual precipitation. We created a synthetic weather station (WS) from the Caseda and Uncastillo WS. The effective rainfall that reaches the soils

  6. Runoff simulation using distributed hydrological modeling approach, remote sensing and GIS techniques: A case study from an Indian agricultural watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdary, V. M.; Desai, V. R.; Gupta, M.; Jeyaram, A.; Murthy, Y. V. N. K.

    2012-07-01

    Distributed hydrological modeling has the capability of simulating distributed watershed basin processes, by dividing a heterogeneous and complex land surface divided into computational elements such as Hydrologic Response Units (HRU), grid cell or sub watersheds. The present study was taken up to simulate spatial hydrological processes from a case study area of Kansavati watershed in Purulia district of West Bengal, India having diverse geographical features using distributed hydrological modelling approach. In the present study, overland flow in terms of direct runoff from storm rainfall was computed using USDA Soil Conservation Services (SCS) curve number technique and subsequently it served as input to channel routing model. For channel flow routing, Muskingum-Cunge flood routing technique was used, specifically to route surface runoff from the different sub watershed outlet points to the outlet point of the watershed. Model parameters were derived for each grid cell either from remote sensing data or conventional maps under GIS environment. For distributed approach, validation show reasonable fit between the simulated and measured data and CMR value in all the cases is negative and ranges from -0.1 to - 0.3. Further, this study investigates the effect of cell size on runoff simulation for different grid cell sizes of 23, 46, 92, 184, 368, 736, 1472 m resolution. The difference between simulated and observed runoff values increases with the increase of grid size beyond 184 m more prominently. Further, this model can be used to evaluate futuristic water availability scenarios for an agricultural watershed in eastern India.

  7. Comparing the impact of time displaced and biased precipitation estimates for online updated urban runoff models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borup, Morten; Grum, Morten; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2013-01-01

    When an online runoff model is updated from system measurements, the requirements of the precipitation input change. Using rain gauge data as precipitation input there will be a displacement between the time when the rain hits the gauge and the time where the rain hits the actual catchment, due to the time it takes for the rain cell to travel from the rain gauge to the catchment. Since this time displacement is not present for system measurements the data assimilation scheme might already have updated the model to include the impact from the particular rain cell when the rain data is forced upon the model, which therefore will end up including the same rain twice in the model run. This paper compares forecast accuracy of updated models when using time displaced rain input to that of rain input with constant biases. This is done using a simple time-area model and historic rain series that are either displaced in time or affected with a bias. The results show that for a 10 minute forecast, time displacements of 5 and 10 minutes compare to biases of 60 and 100%, respectively, independent of the catchments time of concentration.

  8. The Impact of the Variability of Precipitation and Temperatures on the Efficiency of a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleziak, P.; Szolgay, J.; Hlavčová, K.; Parajka, J.

    2016-12-01

    The main objective of the paper is to understand how the model's efficiency and the selected climatic indicators are related. The hydrological model applied in this study is a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (the TUW model), which was developed at the Vienna University of Technology. This model was calibrated over three different periods between 1981-2010 in three groups of Austrian catchments (snow, runoff, and soil catchments), which represent a wide range of the hydroclimatic conditions of Austria. The model's calibration was performed using a differential evolution algorithm (Deoptim). As an objective function, we used a combination of the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) and the logarithmic Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (logNSE). The model's efficiency was evaluated by Volume error (VE). Subsequently, we evaluated the relationship between the model's efficiency (VE) and changes in the climatic indicators (precipitation ΔP, air temperature ΔT). The implications of findings are discussed in the conclusion.

  9. Simulating endosulfan transport in runoff from cotton fields in Australia with the GLEAMS model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, R D; Kennedy, I R; Silburn, D M; Simpson, B W; Freebairn, D M

    2001-01-01

    Endosulfan (6,7,8,9,10,10-hexachloro-1,5,5a,6,9,9a-hexahydro-6,9methano-2,4,3-benzodioxathiepin 3-oxide), a pesticide that is highly toxic to aquatic organisms, is widely used in the cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) industry in Australia and is a risk to the downstream riverine environment. We used the GLEAMS model to evaluate the effectiveness of a range of management scenarios aimed at minimizing endosulfan transport in runoff at the field scale. The field management scenarios simulated were (i) Conventional, bare soil at the beginning of the cotton season and seven irrigations per season; (ii) Improved Irrigation, irrigation amounts reduced and frequency increased to reduce runoff from excess irrigation; (iii) Dryland, no irrigation; (iv) Stubble Retained, increased soil cover created by retaining residue from the previous crop or a specially planted winter cover crop; and (v) Reduced Sprays, a fewer number of sprays. Stubble Retained was the most effective scenario for minimizing endosulfan transport because infiltration was increased and erosion reduced, and the stubble intercepted and neutralized a proportion of the applied endosulfan. Reducing excess irrigation reduced annual export rates by 80 to 90%, but transport in larger storm events was still high. Reducing the number of pesticide applications only reduced transport when three or fewer sprays were applied. We conclude that endosulfan transport from cotton farms can be minimized with a combination of field management practices that reduce excess irrigation and concentration of pesticide on the soil at any point in time; however, discharges, probably with endosulfan concentrations exceeding guideline values, will still occur in storm events.

  10. Bayesian Assessment of the Uncertainties of Estimates of a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, F. E. O. E.; Naghettini, M. D. C.; Fernandes, W.

    2014-12-01

    This paper evaluated the uncertainties associated with the estimation of the parameters of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, through the use of Bayesian inference techniques by Monte Carlo simulation. The Pará River sub-basin, located in the upper São Francisco river basin, in southeastern Brazil, was selected for developing the studies. In this paper, we used the Rio Grande conceptual hydrologic model (EHR/UFMG, 2001) and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method named DREAM (VRUGT, 2008a). Two probabilistic models for the residues were analyzed: (i) the classic [Normal likelihood - r ≈ N (0, σ²)]; and (ii) a generalized likelihood (SCHOUPS & VRUGT, 2010), in which it is assumed that the differences between observed and simulated flows are correlated, non-stationary, and distributed as a Skew Exponential Power density. The assumptions made for both models were checked to ensure that the estimation of uncertainties in the parameters was not biased. The results showed that the Bayesian approach proved to be adequate to the proposed objectives, enabling and reinforcing the importance of assessing the uncertainties associated with hydrological modeling.

  11. Physically-Based Modelling of the Post-Fire Runoff Response of a Forest Catchment in Central Portugal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eck, Van Christel M.; Nunes, Joao P.; Vieira, Diana C.S.; Keesstra, Saskia; Keizer, Jan Jacob

    2016-01-01

    Forest fires are a recurrent phenomenon in Mediterranean forests, with impacts for human landscapes and communities, which must be understood before they can be managed. This study used the physically based Limburg Soil Erosion Model (LISEM) to simulate rainfall–runoff response, under soil water

  12. Physically-Based Modelling of the Post-Fire Runoff Response of a Forest Catchment in Central Portugal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eck, Van Christel M.; Nunes, Joao P.; Vieira, Diana C.S.; Keesstra, Saskia; Keizer, Jan Jacob

    2016-01-01

    Forest fires are a recurrent phenomenon in Mediterranean forests, with impacts for human landscapes and communities, which must be understood before they can be managed. This study used the physically based Limburg Soil Erosion Model (LISEM) to simulate rainfall–runoff response, under soil water

  13. Distributed numerical rainfall-runoff modelling in an arid region using Thematic Mapper data and a geographical information system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sharma, K.D.; Menenti, M.; Huygen, J.; Fernandez, P.C.

    1996-01-01

    A transient one-dimensional finite-difference model describing the partitioning of precipitation between surface run-off, soil moisture storage and deep percolation, through the coupling of saturated and unsaturated zones, has been implemented in a geographical information system including data on v

  14. Flood modelling with a distributed event-based parsimonious rainfall-runoff model: case of the karstic Lez river catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Coustau

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall-runoff models are crucial tools for the statistical prediction of flash floods and real-time forecasting. This paper focuses on a karstic basin in the South of France and proposes a distributed parsimonious event-based rainfall-runoff model, coherent with the poor knowledge of both evaporative and underground fluxes. The model combines a SCS runoff model and a Lag and Route routing model for each cell of a regular grid mesh. The efficiency of the model is discussed not only to satisfactorily simulate floods but also to get powerful relationships between the initial condition of the model and various predictors of the initial wetness state of the basin, such as the base flow, the Hu2 index from the Meteo-France SIM model and the piezometric levels of the aquifer. The advantage of using meteorological radar rainfall in flood modelling is also assessed. Model calibration proved to be satisfactory by using an hourly time step with Nash criterion values, ranging between 0.66 and 0.94 for eighteen of the twenty-one selected events. The radar rainfall inputs significantly improved the simulations or the assessment of the initial condition of the model for 5 events at the beginning of autumn, mostly in September–October (mean improvement of Nash is 0.09; correction in the initial condition ranges from −205 to 124 mm, but were less efficient for the events at the end of autumn. In this period, the weak vertical extension of the precipitation system and the low altitude of the 0 °C isotherm could affect the efficiency of radar measurements due to the distance between the basin and the radar (~60 km. The model initial condition S is correlated with the three tested predictors (R2 > 0.6. The interpretation of the model suggests that groundwater does not affect the first peaks of the flood, but can strongly impact subsequent peaks in the case of a multi-storm event. Because this kind of model is based on a limited

  15. Generating Hourly Rainfall Model using Bayesian Time Series Model (A Case Study at Sentral Station, Bondowoso

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Entin Hidayah

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Disaggregation of hourly rainfall data is very important to fulfil the input of continual rainfall-runoff model, when the availability of automatic rainfall records are limited. Continual rainfall-runoff modeling requires rainfall data in form of series of hourly. Such specification can be obtained by temporal disaggregation in single site. The paper attempts to generate single-site rainfall model based upon time series (AR1 model by adjusting and establishing dummy procedure. Estimated with Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC the objective variable is hourly rainfall depth. Performance of model has been evaluated by comparison of history data and model prediction. The result shows that the model has a good performance for dry interval periods. The performance of the model good represented by smaller number of MAE by 0.21 respectively.

  16. Estimation of evapotranspiration for a small catchment as an input for rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejduk, Leszek; Banasik, Kazimierz; Krajewski, Adam; Mackiewicz, Marta

    2014-05-01

    One of the methods for determination of floods is application of mathematical rainfall-runoff models. Usually, it is possible to distinguish a number of steps for calculation of hydrograph of the flood. The first step is the calculation of effective rainfall which is a difference between total rainfall and losses (amount of water which do not participate in flood formation like interception, infiltration, evaporation etc.) . One of the most common method for determination of effective rainfall is a USDA-SCS method were losses are connected with type of the soils, vegetation and soil moisture. Those factors includes the Curve Number factor (CN). However there is also different approach for determination of losses were soil moisture is calculated as a function of evapotranspiration. In this study, the meteorological data from year 2002-2012 were used for determination of daily evapotranspiration (ETo) by use of FAO Penmana-Monteitha model for Zagozdzonka river catchment in central Poland. Due to gaps in metrological data, some other simpler methods of ETo calculation were applied like Hargraves model and Grabarczyk (1976) model. Based on received results the uncertainty of ETo was calculated. Grabarczyk S., 1976. Polowe zuzycie wody a czynniki meteorologiczne. Zesz. Probl. Post. Nauk Rol. 181, 495-511 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The investigation described in the poster is part of the research project KORANET founded by PL-National Center for Research and Development (NCBiR).

  17. A data-driven SVR model for long-term runoff prediction and uncertainty analysis based on the Bayesian framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Zhongmin; Li, Yujie; Hu, Yiming; Li, Binquan; Wang, Jun

    2017-06-01

    Accurate and reliable long-term forecasting plays an important role in water resources management and utilization. In this paper, a hybrid model called SVR-HUP is presented to predict long-term runoff and quantify the prediction uncertainty. The model is created based on three steps. First, appropriate predictors are selected according to the correlations between meteorological factors and runoff. Second, a support vector regression (SVR) model is structured and optimized based on the LibSVM toolbox and a genetic algorithm. Finally, using forecasted and observed runoff, a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP) based on a Bayesian framework is used to estimate the posterior probability distribution of the simulated values, and the associated uncertainty of prediction was quantitatively analyzed. Six precision evaluation indexes, including the correlation coefficient (CC), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), relative error (RE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and qualification rate (QR), are used to measure the prediction accuracy. As a case study, the proposed approach is applied in the Han River basin, South Central China. Three types of SVR models are established to forecast the monthly, flood season and annual runoff volumes. The results indicate that SVR yields satisfactory accuracy and reliability at all three scales. In addition, the results suggest that the HUP cannot only quantify the uncertainty of prediction based on a confidence interval but also provide a more accurate single value prediction than the initial SVR forecasting result. Thus, the SVR-HUP model provides an alternative method for long-term runoff forecasting.

  18. Parameter identification of a distributed runoff model by the optimization software Colleo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Kazuhiro; Miyamoto, Mamoru; Yamakage, Yuzuru; Tsuda, Morimasa; Anai, Hirokazu; Iwami, Yoichi

    2015-04-01

    The introduction of Colleo (Collection of Optimization software) is presented and case studies of parameter identification for a distributed runoff model are illustrated. In order to calculate discharge of rivers accurately, a distributed runoff model becomes widely used to take into account various land usage, soil-type and rainfall distribution. Feasibility study of parameter optimization is desired to be done in two steps. The first step is to survey which optimization algorithms are suitable for the problems of interests. The second step is to investigate the performance of the specific optimization algorithm. Most of the previous studies seem to focus on the second step. This study will focus on the first step and complement the previous studies. Many optimization algorithms have been proposed in the computational science field and a large number of optimization software have been developed and opened to the public with practically applicable performance and quality. It is well known that it is important to use suitable algorithms for the problems to obtain good optimization results efficiently. In order to achieve algorithm comparison readily, optimization software is needed with which performance of many algorithms can be compared and can be connected to various simulation software. Colleo is developed to satisfy such needs. Colleo provides a unified user interface to several optimization software such as pyOpt, NLopt, inspyred and R and helps investigate the suitability of optimization algorithms. 74 different implementations of optimization algorithms, Nelder-Mead, Particle Swarm Optimization and Genetic Algorithm, are available with Colleo. The effectiveness of Colleo was demonstrated with the cases of flood events of the Gokase River basin in Japan (1820km2). From 2002 to 2010, there were 15 flood events, in which the discharge exceeded 1000m3/s. The discharge was calculated with the PWRI distributed hydrological model developed by ICHARM. The target

  19. HYDROSCAPE: A SCAlable and ParallelizablE Rainfall Runoff Model for Hydrological Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piccolroaz, S.; Di Lazzaro, M.; Zarlenga, A.; Majone, B.; Bellin, A.; Fiori, A.

    2015-12-01

    In this work we present HYDROSCAPE, an innovative streamflow routing method based on the travel time approach, and modeled through a fine-scale geomorphological description of hydrological flow paths. The model is designed aimed at being easily coupled with weather forecast or climate models providing the hydrological forcing, and at the same time preserving the geomorphological dispersion of the river network, which is kept unchanged independently on the grid size of rainfall input. This makes HYDROSCAPE particularly suitable for multi-scale applications, ranging from medium size catchments up to the continental scale, and to investigate the effects of extreme rainfall events that require an accurate description of basin response timing. Key feature of the model is its computational efficiency, which allows performing a large number of simulations for sensitivity/uncertainty analyses in a Monte Carlo framework. Further, the model is highly parsimonious, involving the calibration of only three parameters: one defining the residence time of hillslope response, one for channel velocity, and a multiplicative factor accounting for uncertainties in the identification of the potential maximum soil moisture retention in the SCS-CN method. HYDROSCAPE is designed with a simple and flexible modular structure, which makes it particularly prone to massive parallelization, customization according to the specific user needs and preferences (e.g., rainfall-runoff model), and continuous development and improvement. Finally, the possibility to specify the desired computational time step and evaluate streamflow at any location in the domain, makes HYDROSCAPE an attractive tool for many hydrological applications, and a valuable alternative to more complex and highly parametrized large scale hydrological models. Together with model development and features, we present an application to the Upper Tiber River basin (Italy), providing a practical example of model performance and

  20. Integrating subgrid connectivity properties of the micro-topography in distributed runoff models, at the interrill scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoine, Michael; Javaux, Mathieu; Bielders, Charles L.

    2011-06-01

    surface runoff before maximal depression storage was reached. This was reflected in an increase of the E50 computed for 27 overland flow experiments under laboratory conditions and their equivalent model results ( E50 = 0.89 for the Linsley approach, E50 = 0.94 with the proposed 'uniform' multiple-compartment conceptual approach, and E50 = 0.85 for the classical approach where runoff only starts when depression storage capacity is full).

  1. Modeling the temporal variability of zinc concentrations in zinc roof runoff-experimental study and uncertainty analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sage, Jérémie; El Oreibi, Elissar; Saad, Mohamed; Gromaire, Marie-Christine

    2016-08-01

    This study investigates the temporal variability of zinc concentrations from zinc roof runoff. The influence of rainfall characteristics and dry period duration is evaluated by combining laboratory experiment on small zinc sheets and in situ measurements under real weather conditions from a 1.6-m(2) zinc panel. A reformulation of a commonly used conceptual runoff quality model is introduced and its ability to simulate the evolution of zinc concentrations is evaluated. A systematic and sharp decrease from initially high to relatively low and stable zinc concentrations after 0.5 to 2 mm of rainfall is observed for both experiments, suggesting that highly soluble corrosion products are removed at early stages of runoff. A moderate dependence between antecedent dry period duration and the magnitude of zinc concentrations at the beginning of a rain event is evidenced. Contrariwise, results indicate that concentrations are not significantly influenced by rainfall intensities. Simulated rainfall experiment nonetheless suggests that a slight effect of rainfall intensities may be expected after the initial decrease of concentrations. Finally, this study shows that relatively simple conceptual runoff quality models may be adopted to simulate the variability of zinc concentrations during a rain event and from a rain event to another.

  2. Simulation of daily streamflow for nine river basins in eastern Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haj, Adel E.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Hutchinson, Kasey J.

    2015-10-14

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for nine river basins in eastern Iowa that drain into the Mississippi River. The models are part of a suite of methods for estimating daily streamflow at ungaged sites. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed- parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration and validation periods used in each basin mostly were October 1, 2002, through September 30, 2012, but differed depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations.

  3. Conditioning rainfall-runoff model parameters for ungauged catchments and land management impacts analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Bulygina

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Data scarcity and model over-parameterisation, leading to model equifinality and large prediction uncertainty, are common barriers to effective hydrological modelling. The problem can be alleviated by constraining the prior parameter space using parameter regionalisation. A common basis for regionalisation in the UK is the HOST database which provides estimates of hydrological indices for different soil classifications. In our study, Base Flow Index is estimated from the HOST database and the power of this index for constraining the parameter space is explored. The method is applied to a highly discretised distributed model of a 12.5 km2 upland catchment in Wales. To assess probabilistic predictions against flow observations, a probabilistic version of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency is derived. For six flow gauges with reliable data, this efficiency ranged between 0.70 and 0.81, and inspection of the results shows that the model explains the data well. Knowledge of how Base Flow Index and interception losses may change under future land use management interventions was then used to further condition the model. Two interventions are considered: afforestation of grazed areas, and soil degradation associated with increased grazing intensity. Afforestation leads to median reduction in modelled runoff volume of 24% over the simulated 3 month period; and a median peak flow reduction ranging from 12 to 15% over the six gauges for the largest simulated event. Uncertainty in all results is low compared to prior uncertainty and it is concluded that using Base Flow Index estimated from HOST is a simple and potentially powerful method of conditioning the parameter space under current and future land management.

  4. Performance of a coupled lagged ensemble weather and river runoff prediction model system for the Alpine Ammer River catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smiatek, G.; Kunstmann, H.; Werhahn, J.

    2012-04-01

    The Ammer River catchment located in the Bavarian Ammergau Alps and alpine forelands, Germany, represents with elevations reaching 2185 m and annual mean precipitation between1100 and 2000 mm a very demanding test ground for a river runoff prediction system. Large flooding events in 1999 and 2005 motivated the development of a physically based prediction tool in this area. Such a tool is the coupled high resolution numerical weather and river runoff forecasting system AM-POE that is being studied in several configurations in various experiments starting from the year 2005. Corner stones of the coupled system are the hydrological water balance model WaSiM-ETH run at 100 m grid resolution, the numerical weather prediction model (NWP) MM5 driven at 3.5 km grid cell resolution and the Perl Object Environment (POE) framework. POE implements the input data download from various sources, the input data provision via SOAP based WEB services as well as the runs of the hydrology model both with observed and with NWP predicted meteorology input. The one way coupled system utilizes a lagged ensemble prediction system (EPS) taking into account combination of recent and previous NWP forecasts. Results obtained in the years 2005-2011 reveal that river runoff simulations depict high correlation with observed runoff when driven with monitored observations in hindcast experiments. The ability to runoff forecasts is depending on lead times in the lagged ensemble prediction and shows still limitations resulting from errors in timing and total amount of the predicted precipitation in the complex mountainous area. The presentation describes the system implementation, and demonstrates the application of the POE framework in networking, distributed computing and in the setup of various experiments as well as long term results of the system application in the years 2005 - 2011.

  5. Incorporating Groundwater Dynamics and Surface/Subsurface Runoff Mechanisms in Regional Climate Modeling over River Basins in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIN Peihua; XIE Zhenghui; YUAN Xing

    2013-01-01

    To improve the capability of numerical modeling of climate-groundwater interactions,a groundwater component and new surface/subsurface runoff schemes were incorporated into the regional climate model RegCM3,renamed RegCM3_Hydro.20-year simulations from both models were used to investigate the effects of groundwater dynamics and surface/subsurface runoff parameterizations on regional climate over seven river basins in China.A comparison of results shows that RegCM3_Hydro reduced the positive biases of annual and summer (June,July,August) precipitation over six river basins,while it slightly increased the bias over the Huaihe River Basin in eastern China.RegCM3_Hydro also reduced the cold bias of surface air temperature from RegCM3 across years,especially for the Haihe and the Huaihe river basins,with significant bias reductions of 0.80℃ and 0.88℃,respectively.The spatial distribution and seasonal variations of water table depth were also well captured.With the new surface and subsurface runoff schemes,RegCM3_Hydro increased annual surface runoff by 0.11-0.62 mm d-1 over the seven basins.Though previous studies found that incorporating a groundwater component tends to increase soil moisture due to the consideration of upward groundwater recharge,our present work shows that the modified runoff schemes cause less infiltration,which outweigh the recharge from groundwater and result in drier soil,and consequently cause less latent heat and more sensible heat over most of the basins.

  6. Estimation of reservoir inflow in data scarce region by using Sacramento rainfall runoff model - A case study for Sittaung River Basin, Myanmar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myo Lin, Nay; Rutten, Martine

    2017-04-01

    The Sittaung River is one of four major rivers in Myanmar. This river basin is developing fast and facing problems with flood, sedimentation, river bank erosion and salt intrusion. At present, more than 20 numbers of reservoirs have already been constructed for multiple purposes such as irrigation, domestic water supply, hydro-power generation, and flood control. The rainfall runoff models are required for the operational management of this reservoir system. In this study, the river basin is divided into (64) sub-catchments and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) models are developed by using satellite rainfall and Geographic Information System (GIS) data. The SAC-SMA model has sixteen calibration parameters, and also uses a unit hydrograph for surface flow routing. The Sobek software package is used for SAC-SMA modelling and simulation of river system. The models are calibrated and tested by using observed discharge and water level data. The statistical results show that the model is applicable to use for data scarce region. Keywords: Sacramento, Sobek, rainfall runoff, reservoir

  7. 生物滞留池的产流规律模拟研究%Study on Runoff of Bioretention by Model Simulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    殷瑞雪; 孟莹莹; 张书函; 陈建刚

    2015-01-01

    根据生物滞留池降雨径流观测试验数据,应用HYDRUS-1D对生物滞留池在24h不同降雨频率和不同填料层的产流规律进行模拟分析. 结果表明,率定和验证后的HYDRUS-1D可用于模拟生物滞留池的产流过程;在1年一遇(P=100%)到百年一遇(P=1%)的不同频率下,传统填料的生物滞留池通过下渗的排水量占入流总量的百分比从90.7%下降到25.8%, 而添加大粒径颗粒填料从88.9%下降到64.7%,说明添加大粒径填料能够显著增加下渗量,并减少溢流和积水时间,但是从延缓产流时间和洪峰削减效果(不发生溢流)方面,传统填料要优于添加大粒径颗粒的填料.%To investigate the runoff of bioretention, a rainfall-runoff relationship experiment was conducted. HYDRUS-1D model was applied to simulate the runoff generation processes with different designed precipitation frequency and filter media. The simulated runoff process and ponding duration were in good consistence with the measured data. The results show that the model is able to capture the runoff processes reasonably well of bioretention after parameter calibrated and model validation. With designed precipitation frequency changed from P=100%to P=1%as the rainfall depth from 48.1mm to 423.4mm in 24 hours, the infiltration depth to total flow changed from 90.7%to 25.8%for bioretention with traditional filter media, while it changed from 88.9%to 64.7%for bioretention with large particle filter media. The simulated results indicate that the infiltration capability of bioretention with large particle filter media is better than with traditional filter media, and reducing the amount of outflow and ponding time obviously. However, the delay period with traditional filter media is longer than with large particle filter media. Also the peak flow reduction of the bioretention with traditional filter media is larger than large particle filter media before over flood occurrence.

  8. Modeling the Performance of Sand Filters for Removing Runoff Suspended Sediment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    release; distribution is unlimited. Prepared for US Army Corps of Engineers Washington, DC 20314-1000 ERDC/EL CR-13-3 ii Abstract Geotextile tubes...sediments in urban stormwater runoff, and thus should be effective in removing metals in runoff from SAFRs. Porous geotextile fabric is used to hold...public release; unlimited distribution. 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT Geotextile tubes filled with sand are being evaluated for filter

  9. Solar Irradiance from GOES Albedo performance in a Hydrologic Model Simulation of Snowmelt Runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumargo, E.; Cayan, D. R.; McGurk, B. J.

    2015-12-01

    In many hydrologic modeling applications, solar radiation has been parameterized using commonly available measures, such as the daily temperature range, due to scarce in situ solar radiation measurement network. However, these parameterized estimates often produce significant biases. Here we test hourly solar irradiance derived from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) visible albedo product, using several established algorithms. Focusing on the Sierra Nevada and White Mountain in California, we compared the GOES irradiance and that from a traditional temperature-based algorithm with incoming irradiance from pyranometers at 19 stations. The GOES based estimates yielded 21-27% reduction in root-mean-squared error (average over 19 sites). The derived irradiance is then prescribed as an input to Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). We constrain our experiment to the Tuolumne River watershed and focus our attention on the winter and spring of 1996-2014. A root-mean-squared error reduction of 2-6% in daily inflow to Hetch Hetchy at the lower end of the Tuolumne catchment was achieved by incorporating the insolation estimates at only 8 out of 280 Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) within the basin. Our ongoing work endeavors to apply satellite-derived irradiance at each individual HRU.

  10. Verification of Advances in a Coupled Snow-runoff Modeling Framework for Operational Streamflow Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barik, M. G.; Hogue, T. S.; Franz, K. J.; He, M.

    2011-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) issue hydrologic forecasts related to flood events, reservoir operations for water supply, streamflow regulation, and recreation on the nation's streams and rivers. The RFCs use the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) for streamflow forecasting which relies on a coupled snow model (i.e. SNOW17) and rainfall-runoff model (i.e. SAC-SMA) in snow-dominated regions of the US. Errors arise in various steps of the forecasting system from input data, model structure, model parameters, and initial states. The goal of the current study is to undertake verification of potential improvements in the SNOW17-SAC-SMA modeling framework developed for operational streamflow forecasts. We undertake verification for a range of parameters sets (i.e. RFC, DREAM (Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis)) as well as a data assimilation (DA) framework developed for the coupled models. Verification is also undertaken for various initial conditions to observe the influence of variability in initial conditions on the forecast. The study basin is the North Fork America River Basin (NFARB) located on the western side of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in northern California. Hindcasts are verified using both deterministic (i.e. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency, root mean square error, and joint distribution) and probabilistic (i.e. reliability diagram, discrimination diagram, containing ratio, and Quantile plots) statistics. Our presentation includes comparison of the performance of different optimized parameters and the DA framework as well as assessment of the impact associated with the initial conditions used for streamflow forecasts for the NFARB.

  11. Benefits and limitations of data assimilation for discharge forecasting using an event-based rainfall–runoff model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Coustau

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Mediterranean catchments in southern France are threatened by potentially devastating fast floods which are difficult to anticipate. In order to improve the skill of rainfall-runoff models in predicting such flash floods, hydrologists use data assimilation techniques to provide real-time updates of the model using observational data. This approach seeks to reduce the uncertainties present in different components of the hydrological model (forcing, parameters or state variables in order to minimize the error in simulated discharges. This article presents a data assimilation procedure, the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE, used with the goal of improving the peak discharge predictions generated by an event-based hydrological model Soil Conservation Service lag and route (SCS-LR. For a given prediction date, selected model inputs are corrected by assimilating discharge data observed at the basin outlet. This study is conducted on the Lez Mediterranean basin in southern France. The key objectives of this article are (i to select the parameter(s which allow for the most efficient and reliable correction of the simulated discharges, (ii to demonstrate the impact of the correction of the initial condition upon simulated discharges, and (iii to identify and understand conditions in which this technique fails to improve the forecast skill. The correction of the initial moisture deficit of the soil reservoir proves to be the most efficient control parameter for adjusting the peak discharge. Using data assimilation, this correction leads to an average of 12% improvement in the flood peak magnitude forecast in 75% of cases. The investigation of the other 25% of cases points out a number of precautions for the appropriate use of this data assimilation procedure.

  12. Benefits and limitations of data assimilation for discharge forecasting using an event-based rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coustau, M.; Ricci, S.; Borrell-Estupina, V.; Bouvier, C.; Thual, O.

    2013-03-01

    Mediterranean catchments in southern France are threatened by potentially devastating fast floods which are difficult to anticipate. In order to improve the skill of rainfall-runoff models in predicting such flash floods, hydrologists use data assimilation techniques to provide real-time updates of the model using observational data. This approach seeks to reduce the uncertainties present in different components of the hydrological model (forcing, parameters or state variables) in order to minimize the error in simulated discharges. This article presents a data assimilation procedure, the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE), used with the goal of improving the peak discharge predictions generated by an event-based hydrological model Soil Conservation Service lag and route (SCS-LR). For a given prediction date, selected model inputs are corrected by assimilating discharge data observed at the basin outlet. This study is conducted on the Lez Mediterranean basin in southern France. The key objectives of this article are (i) to select the parameter(s) which allow for the most efficient and reliable correction of the simulated discharges, (ii) to demonstrate the impact of the correction of the initial condition upon simulated discharges, and (iii) to identify and understand conditions in which this technique fails to improve the forecast skill. The correction of the initial moisture deficit of the soil reservoir proves to be the most efficient control parameter for adjusting the peak discharge. Using data assimilation, this correction leads to an average of 12% improvement in the flood peak magnitude forecast in 75% of cases. The investigation of the other 25% of cases points out a number of precautions for the appropriate use of this data assimilation procedure.

  13. Modeling runoff and erosion risk in a~small steep cultivated watershed using different data sources: from on-site measurements to farmers' perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auvet, B.; Lidon, B.; Kartiwa, B.; Le Bissonnais, Y.; Poussin, J.-C.

    2015-09-01

    This paper presents an approach to model runoff and erosion risk in a context of data scarcity, whereas the majority of available models require large quantities of physical data that are frequently not accessible. To overcome this problem, our approach uses different sources of data, particularly on agricultural practices (tillage and land cover) and farmers' perceptions of runoff and erosion. The model was developed on a small (5 ha) cultivated watershed characterized by extreme conditions (slopes of up to 55 %, extreme rainfall events) on the Merapi volcano in Indonesia. Runoff was modelled using two versions of STREAM. First, a lumped version was used to determine the global parameters of the watershed. Second, a distributed version used three parameters for the production of runoff (slope, land cover and roughness), a precise DEM, and the position of waterways for runoff distribution. This information was derived from field observations and interviews with farmers. Both surface runoff models accurately reproduced runoff at the outlet. However, the distributed model (Nash-Sutcliffe = 0.94) was more accurate than the adjusted lumped model (N-S = 0.85), especially for the smallest and biggest runoff events, and produced accurate spatial distribution of runoff production and concentration. Different types of erosion processes (landslides, linear inter-ridge erosion, linear erosion in main waterways) were modelled as a combination of a hazard map (the spatial distribution of runoff/infiltration volume provided by the distributed model), and a susceptibility map combining slope, land cover and tillage, derived from in situ observations and interviews with farmers. Each erosion risk map gives a spatial representation of the different erosion processes including risk intensities and frequencies that were validated by the farmers and by in situ observations. Maps of erosion risk confirmed the impact of the concentration of runoff, the high susceptibility of long steep

  14. Toward hydro-social modeling: Merging human variables and the social sciences with climate-glacier runoff models (Santa River, Peru)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Mark; Baraer, Michel; Mark, Bryan G.; French, Adam; Bury, Jeffrey; Young, Kenneth R.; McKenzie, Jeffrey M.

    2014-10-01

    Glacier shrinkage caused by climate change is likely to trigger diminished and less consistent stream flow in glacier-fed watersheds worldwide. To understand, model, and adapt to these climate-glacier-water changes, it is vital to integrate the analysis of both water availability (the domain of hydrologists) and water use (the focus for social scientists). Drawn from a case study of the Santa River watershed below Peru’s glaciated Cordillera Blanca mountain range, this paper provides a holistic hydro-social framework that identifies five major human variables critical to hydrological modeling because these forces have profoundly influenced water use over the last 60 years: (1) political agendas and economic development; (2) governance: laws and institutions; (3) technology and engineering; (4) land and resource use; and (5) societal responses. Notable shifts in Santa River water use-including major expansions in hydroelectricity generation, large-scale irrigation projects, and other land and resource-use practices-did not necessarily stem from changing glacier runoff or hydrologic shifts, but rather from these human variables. Ultimately, then, water usage is not predictable based on water availability alone. Glacier runoff conforms to certain expected trends predicted by models of progressively reduced glacier storage. However, societal forces establish the legal, economic, political, cultural, and social drivers that actually shape water usage patterns via human modification of watershed dynamics. This hydro-social framework has widespread implications for hydrological modeling in glaciated watersheds from the Andes and Alps to the Himalaya and Tien Shan, as well as for the development of climate change adaptation plans.

  15. Assimilation of satellite information in a snowpack model to improve characterization of snow cover for runoff simulation and forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    A new technique for constructing spatial fields of snow characteristics for runoff simulation and forecasting is presented. The technique incorporates satellite land surface monitoring data and available ground-based hydrometeorological measurements in a physical based snowpack model. The snowpack model provides simulation of temporal changes of the snow depth, density and water equivalent (SWE), accounting for snow melt, sublimation, refreezing melt water and snow metamorphism processes with...

  16. Temporal variability of surface runoff due to cropping systems in cultivated catchment areas: Use of the DIAR model for the assessment of environmental public policies in the Pays de Caux (France).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, P; Joannon, A; Piskiewicz, N

    2010-01-01

    This article proposes the use of a new model, DIAR (Diagnostic Agronomique du Ruissellement, or Agronomic Assessment of Runoff), for the prediction of the timing of the risk of runoff. DIAR is dedicated to loamy soils which are very sensitive to surface crusting, leading to runoff, soil erosion and muddy flows. The approach is proposed for the north-western European loess belt regions where muddy flows severely impact human activities. The likelihood of runoff is assessed from the sequence of soil surface states generated by cultivation practices. DIAR is based on the calculation of curve number values, for each stage of the soil-surface-state sequence, for calculating runoff for each of these stages. In this study, DIAR is applied to a catchment of 912 ha, cultivated by 26 farmers in the Pays de Caux (Normandy, France) where infrastructures located at the outlet have been damaged several times by muddy flows. Local public authorities involved in reducing muddy flows are eager to limit the agricultural upstream runoff by extending the planting of mustard as a winter cover crop. We tested the efficiency of such a policy on the reduction of the mean runoff. We also tested the year-to-year variability of this efficiency using the acreages of four successive years (1999-2000 to 2002-2003). Finally, the cost-efficiency of the policy was also considered. Though we used the same weather scenario, the initial situation (without much mustard cover) showed a wide year-to-year variation in the total runoff. This variation can be associated with the structure of the farms that cultivate the catchment (Utilised Agricultural Area (UAA) of each farm and percentage of this UAA inside the catchment). Our results showed that the widespread planting of winter cover crops could reduce the runoff by 10-20% compared with the initial situation (depending on the year), and also reduce the year-to-year variability of runoff. For each of the 4 tested years, the cost of the infiltrated m(3

  17. Generative models of conformational dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langmead, Christopher James

    2014-01-01

    Atomistic simulations of the conformational dynamics of proteins can be performed using either Molecular Dynamics or Monte Carlo procedures. The ensembles of three-dimensional structures produced during simulation can be analyzed in a number of ways to elucidate the thermodynamic and kinetic properties of the system. The goal of this chapter is to review both traditional and emerging methods for learning generative models from atomistic simulation data. Here, the term 'generative' refers to a model of the joint probability distribution over the behaviors of the constituent atoms. In the context of molecular modeling, generative models reveal the correlation structure between the atoms, and may be used to predict how the system will respond to structural perturbations. We begin by discussing traditional methods, which produce multivariate Gaussian models. We then discuss GAMELAN (GRAPHICAL MODELS OF ENERGY LANDSCAPES), which produces generative models of complex, non-Gaussian conformational dynamics (e.g., allostery, binding, folding, etc.) from long timescale simulation data.

  18. Attributing runoff changes to climate variability and human activities: uncertainty analysis using four monthly water balance models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Shuai; Xiong, Lihua; Li, Hong-Yi; Leung, L. Ruby; Demissie, Yonas

    2015-05-26

    Hydrological simulations to delineate the impacts of climate variability and human activities are subjected to uncertainties related to both parameter and structure of the hydrological models. To analyze the impact of these uncertainties on the model performance and to yield more reliable simulation results, a global calibration and multimodel combination method that integrates the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) of four monthly water balance models was proposed. The method was applied to the Weihe River Basin (WRB), the largest tributary of the Yellow River, to determine the contribution of climate variability and human activities to runoff changes. The change point, which was used to determine the baseline period (1956-1990) and human-impacted period (1991-2009), was derived using both cumulative curve and Pettitt’s test. Results show that the combination method from SCEM provides more skillful deterministic predictions than the best calibrated individual model, resulting in the smallest uncertainty interval of runoff changes attributed to climate variability and human activities. This combination methodology provides a practical and flexible tool for attribution of runoff changes to climate variability and human activities by hydrological models.

  19. Developing a stochastic conflict resolution model for urban runoff quality management: Application of info-gap and bargaining theories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghodsi, Seyed Hamed; Kerachian, Reza; Estalaki, Siamak Malakpour; Nikoo, Mohammad Reza; Zahmatkesh, Zahra

    2016-02-01

    In this paper, two deterministic and stochastic multilateral, multi-issue, non-cooperative bargaining methodologies are proposed for urban runoff quality management. In the proposed methodologies, a calibrated Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used to simulate stormwater runoff quantity and quality for different urban stormwater runoff management scenarios, which have been defined considering several Low Impact Development (LID) techniques. In the deterministic methodology, the best management scenario, representing location and area of LID controls, is identified using the bargaining model. In the stochastic methodology, uncertainties of some key parameters of SWMM are analyzed using the info-gap theory. For each water quality management scenario, robustness and opportuneness criteria are determined based on utility functions of different stakeholders. Then, to find the best solution, the bargaining model is performed considering a combination of robustness and opportuneness criteria for each scenario based on utility function of each stakeholder. The results of applying the proposed methodology in the Velenjak urban watershed located in the northeastern part of Tehran, the capital city of Iran, illustrate its practical utility for conflict resolution in urban water quantity and quality management. It is shown that the solution obtained using the deterministic model cannot outperform the result of the stochastic model considering the robustness and opportuneness criteria. Therefore, it can be concluded that the stochastic model, which incorporates the main uncertainties, could provide more reliable results.

  20. Multimethod evolutionary search for the regional calibration of rainfall-runoff models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Laura; Castiglioni, Simone; Toth, Elena; Castellarin, Attilio; Montanari, Alberto

    2010-05-01

    The study focuses on regional calibration for a generic rainfall-runoff model. The maximum likelihood function in the spectral domain proposed by Whittle is approximated in the time domain by maximising the simultaneous fit (through a multiobjective optimisation) of selected statistics of streamflow values, with the aim to propose a calibration procedure that can be applied at regional scale. The method may in fact be applied without the availability of actual time series of streamflow observations, since it is based exclusively on the selected statistics, that are here obtained on the basis of the dominant climate and catchment characteristics, through regional regression relationships. The multiobjective optimisation was carried out by using a recently proposed multimethod evolutionary search algorithm (AMALGAM, Vrugt and Robinson, 2007), that runs simultaneously, for population evolution, a set of different optimisation methods (namely NSGA-II, Differential Evolution, Adaptive Metropolis Search and Particle Swarm Optimisation), resulting in a combination of the respective strengths by adaptively updating the weights of these individual methods based on their reproductive success. This ensures a fast, reliable and computationally efficient solution to multiobjective optimisation problems. The proposed technique is applied to the case study of some catchments located in central Italy, which are treated as ungauged and are located in a region where detailed hydrological and geomorfoclimatic information is available. The results obtained with the regional calibration are compared with those provided by a classical least squares calibration in the time domain. The outcomes of the analysis confirm the potentialities of the proposed methodology.

  1. A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON CALIBRATION METHODS OF NASH’S RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL TO AMMAMEH WATERSHED, IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Nourani

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Increasing importance of watershed management during last decades highlighted the need for sufficient data and accurate estimation of rainfall and runoff within watersheds. Therefore, various conceptual models have been developed with parameters based on observed data. Since further investigations depend on these parameters, it is important to accurately estimate them. This study by utilizing various methods, tries to estimate Nash rainfall-runoff model parameters and then evaluate the reliability of parameter estimation methods; moment, least square error, maximum likelihood, maximum entropy and genetic algorithm. Results based on a case study on the data from Ammameh watershed in Central Iran, indicate that the genetic algorithm method, which has been developed based on artificial intelligence, more accurately estimates Nash’s model parameters.

  2. Development of an Integrated Hydrologic Modeling System for Rainfall-Runoff Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, B.; Piasecki, M.

    2008-12-01

    This paper aims to present the development of an integrated hydrological model which involves functionalities of digital watershed processing, online data retrieval, hydrologic simulation and post-event analysis. The proposed system is intended to work as a back end to the CUAHSI HIS cyberinfrastructure developments. As a first step into developing this system, a physics-based distributed hydrologic model PIHM (Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model) is wrapped into OpenMI(Open Modeling Interface and Environment ) environment so as to seamlessly interact with OpenMI compliant meteorological models. The graphical user interface is being developed from the openGIS application called MapWindows which permits functionality expansion through the addition of plug-ins. . Modules required to set up through the GUI workboard include those for retrieving meteorological data from existing database or meteorological prediction models, obtaining geospatial data from the output of digital watershed processing, and importing initial condition and boundary condition. They are connected to the OpenMI compliant PIHM to simulate rainfall-runoff processes and includes a module for automatically displaying output after the simulation. Online databases are accessed through the WaterOneFlow web services, and the retrieved data are either stored in an observation database(OD) following the schema of Observation Data Model(ODM) in case for time series support, or a grid based storage facility which may be a format like netCDF or a grid-based-data database schema . Specific development steps include the creation of a bridge to overcome interoperability issue between PIHM and the ODM, as well as the embedding of TauDEM (Terrain Analysis Using Digital Elevation Models) into the model. This module is responsible for developing watershed and stream network using digital elevation models. Visualizing and editing geospatial data is achieved by the usage of MapWinGIS, an ActiveX control developed

  3. Field-calibrated model of melt, refreezing, and runoff for polar ice caps: Application to Devon Ice Cap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Richard M.; Mair, Douglas W. F.; Nienow, Peter W.; Bell, Christina; Burgess, David O.; Wright, Andrew P.

    2014-09-01

    Understanding the controls on the amount of surface meltwater that refreezes, rather than becoming runoff, over polar ice masses is necessary for modeling their surface mass balance and ultimately for predicting their future contributions to global sea level change. We present a modified version of a physically based model that includes an energy balance routine and explicit calculation of near-surface meltwater refreezing capacity, to simulate the evolution of near-surface density and temperature profiles across Devon Ice Cap in Arctic Canada. Uniquely, our model is initiated and calibrated using high spatial resolution measurements of snow and firn densities across almost the entire elevation range of the ice cap for the summer of 2004 and subsequently validated with the same type of measurements obtained during the very different meteorological conditions of summer 2006. The model captures the spatial variability across the transect in bulk snowpack properties although it slightly underestimates the flow of meltwater into the firn of previous years. The percentage of meltwater that becomes runoff is similar in both years; however, the spatial pattern of this melt-runoff relationship is different in the 2 years. The model is found to be insensitive to variation in the depth of impermeable layers within the firn but is very sensitive to variation in air temperature, since the refreezing capacity of firn decreases with increasing temperature. We highlight that the sensitivity of the ice cap's surface mass balance to air temperature is itself dependent on air temperature.

  4. Runoff production from intercrater plains on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, R. P., III; Matsubara, Y.; Cawley, J. C.

    2016-12-01

    Ancient fluvial paleochannels and paleolakes constrain the hydrology of a wetter epoch in the early history of Mars. The cross-sectional dimensions of fluvial channels scale with discharge, watershed topography is generally well preserved, and adjustments can be made for gravity. These factors have supported conservative estimates of runoff production during event floods more than 3.5 billion years ago. Assuming weak channel banks, such that discharge is low per unit channel width, event floods in smaller watersheds had estimated runoff production of 1 cm/day. Highland surfaces generated runoff inefficiently, such that channel width increases with only the 0.3 power of watershed area. Inefficient runoff production on Mars is also suggested by new landscape evolution modeling. In long-term simulations that accurately reproduce the present landscape, forming and degrading all of the Middle and Late Noachian impact craters in selected study areas, inefficient runoff production is needed to degrade craters without intensely dissecting intercrater surfaces. The model shows that discharge generally cannot increase at more than the 0.3 power of watershed area. Paleolakes provide useful constraints on paleohydrology over intermediate timescales of years to millennia. Most local highland basins were never integrated into regional drainage systems, but some have both a contributing valley network and an outlet valley, indicating that they overflowed. Paleolake overflows require a medium-term water supply that exceeds losses to evaporation. Reasonable evaporation of 0.1 to 1 m/yr and watersheds that are mostly >10 times the area of overflowed paleolakes suggest runoff production of gardening, and lesser aeolian erosion. Low drainage density is an obvious explanation for inefficient runoff production, but it may be the consequence of moderate rainfall or snowmelt, as well as incision of valley networks over a finite timescale.

  5. PROBABILITY MODEL OF GUNTHER GENERATOR

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    This paper constructs the probability model of Gunther generator at first, and the finite dimension union distribution of the output sequence is presented. The result shows that the output sequence is an independent and uniformly distributed 0,1 random variable sequence.It gives the theoretical foundation about why Gunther generator can avoid the statistic weakness of the output sequence of stop-and-go generator, and analyzes the coincidence between output sequence and input sequences of Gunther generator. The conclusions of this paper would offer theoretical references for designers and analyzers of clock-controlled generators.

  6. Parameterization of a rainfall-runoff model based on the utility of the forecasts for a specific stakeholder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappelletti, Matteo; Toth, Elena

    2016-04-01

    The work presents the application of a new method for calibration of an hydrological rainfall-runoff model, based on the use of utility functions. The utility function is defined on the basis of the specific purpose of the desired predictions, according to the needs of the stakeholders that will use them: in the present case, the purpose is the identification of the future streamflow occurrences that will surpass an assigned threshold runoff, thus helping the stakeholder in the decisions concerning the issuance of flood watches and warnings in the operation of a flood forecasting system. The chosen utility function is based on both the absolute error of the model and the values of the observed streamflow. In addition to the parameterization developed using the utility function, in an application referred to a mid-sized mountain watershed in Tuscany (Italy), the model response was studied, as a term of comparison, also using traditional mono- and multi-objective calibration approaches. The results, evaluated also using skill scores based on false and missed alarms as well as on the probability of detection and frequency of hits of the threshold runoff (widely adopted when assessing the value of both meteorological and hydrological forecasts in real-world flood warning systems), demonstrate that the proposed approach may allow an improvement of the model performances, if compared with traditional mono-objective and multi-objective calibration procedures, in respect to the actual utility of the forecasts for a specific stakeholder.

  7. Modelling the impact of retention–detention units on sewer surcharge and peak and annual runoff reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Locatelli, Luca; Gabriel, S.; Mark, O.

    2015-01-01

    Stormwater management using water sensitive urban design is expected to be part of future drainage systems. This paper aims to model the combination of local retention units, such as soakaways, with subsurface detention units. Soakaways are employed to reduce (by storage and infiltration) peak...... and volume stormwater runoff; however, large retention volumes are required for a significant peak reduction. Peak runoff can therefore be handled by combining detention units with soakaways. This paper models the impact of retrofitting retention-detention units for an existing urbanized catchment in Denmark....... The impact of retrofitting a retention-detention unit of 3.3 m(3)/100 m(2) (volume/impervious area) was simulated for a small catchment in Copenhagen using MIKE URBAN. The retention-detention unit was shown to prevent flooding from the sewer for a 10-year rainfall event. Statistical analysis of continuous...

  8. CUCKOO SEARCH VIA LÉVY FLIGHTS FOR OPTIMIZATION OF A PHYSICALLY-BASED RUNOFF-EROSION MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Celso A. G. Santos

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to calibrate a physically-based, event-oriented runoff-erosion model by means of a global optimization method known as cuckoo-host co-evolution (CHC which has co-evolutionary changes incorporated into the traditional cuckoo search algorithm. The physically-based erosion model that was chosen to be optimized here is the watershed erosion simulation program (WESP, which was developed for small semiarid basins to simulate runoff and erosion processes. The optimization technique was tested with the field data collected in an experimental watershed located in a semiarid region of Brazil, and such technique showed to be effective in order to locate the optimal erosion parameter values. On the basis of these results, such values for a semiarid region are given, which could be recommended as an initial estimate for other similar areas.

  9. Rainfall-runoff modeling of the Chapel Branch Creek Watershed using GIS-based rational and SCS-CN methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizabeth N. Mihalik; Norm S. Levine; Devendra M. Amatya

    2008-01-01

    Chapel Branch Creek (CBC), located within the Town of Santee adjacent to Lake Marion in Orangeburg County, SC, is listed on the SC 2004 303(d) list of impaired waterbodies due to elevated levels of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), chlorophyll-a, and pH. In this study, using a GIS-based approach, two runoff modeling methods, the Rational and SCS-CN methods, have been...

  10. Wave Generation in Physical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Thomas Lykke; Frigaard, Peter

    The present book describes the most important aspects of wave generation techniques in physical models. Moreover, the book serves as technical documentation for the wave generation software AwaSys 6, cf. Aalborg University (2012). In addition to the two main authors also Tue Hald and Michael...

  11. Implementation of a hydrologic model and GIS for estimating Wadi runoff in Dernah area, Al Jabal Al Akhadar, NE Libya

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Osta, M. M.; Masoud, M. H.

    2015-07-01

    This study has investigated the relationship between rainfall-runoff in Dernah area, Al Jabal Al Akhadar, NE Libya. It provides flash flood hazard warnings for ungauged basins using geographic information system (GIS). The study examined the morphometric parameters of four Wadis (Wadi Dernah, Wadi Bum Safer, Wadi Al Nagah and Wadi Bir Al Yajur) with emphasis on their implication for hydrologic processes through the integration analysis between morphometric parameters and GIS techniques. Data for this study were obtained from ASTER data for digital elevation model (DEM) with 30 m resolution, topographic map (1:50,000), geological maps (1,250,000) which were checked during the field work. About 36 morphometric parameters were measured and calculated and interlinked to produce nine effective parameters for evaluating the flash flood hazard degree of the study area. The study basins are classified according to their hazards into three groups; Basins of low hazard degree (Wadi Al Nagah and Wadi Bir Al Yajur); Basins of medium hazard degree (Wadi Dernah); Basins of high hazard degree (Bum Safer). Software (SMADA 6) is applied to generate the hydrograph of subbasins of both medium and high hazard degrees. As a result of the model applied to Wadi Dernah, rainfall events of a total of 60, 70, 90, 110 and 120 mm of return periods 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years produce a discharge volume of 9.1 × 106, 13.5 × 106, 22.3 × 106, 34.0 × 106 and 39.7 × 106 m3 respectively. While in case of Wadi Bum Safer the discharge volume is 22.1 × 106, 30.5 × 106, 46.1 × 106, 65.6 × 106 and 74.8 × 106 m3.

  12. Determining Potential Sites for Runoff Water Harvesting using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems-Based Modeling in Sinai

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossam H. Elewa

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Sinai is increasingly suffering from an overwhelming water crisis. Runoff Water Harvesting (RWH could be a solution for this problem. The determined promising drainage basins for RWH could be used by the decision makers to propose appropriate controlling systems to overcome the problem of water scarcity and for implementing runoff farming and rain-fed agriculture. Approach: Remote sensing, geographic information systems, watershed modeling system were integrated to extract a multi-criteria-decision support system of nine thematic layers, namely; volume of annual flood, lineaments frequency density, drainage frequency density, maximum flow distance, basin area, basin slope, basin length, average overland flow distance and soil infiltration. These criteria were used for conducting a Weighted Spatial Probability Modeling (WSPM to determine the potential areas for the RWH. The potential runoff available for harvesting was estimated by applying Finkel-SCS rainfall-runoff methods. Results: The WSPM classified Sinai into four classes that graded from high (3,201-6,695 km2, moderate (35,923-35,896 km2, low (13,185-16,652 km2, very low (1.38-5.57 km2 for RWH. Promising watersheds like those of Abu Taryfya, Hamma El Hassana, Gerafi, Watir, Geraia, Heridien, Sidri, Feiran and Alaawag, are categorized as high-moderate RWH potential basins. Conclusion: These basins could be investigated in detail with larger scale to determine the appropriate locations for implementing the RWH structures and techniques. Implementing systems and techniques of RWH in the potential watersheds could open new opportunities for sustainable development in the area.

  13. Prediction of runoff and discharge in the Simiyu River (tributary of Lake Victoria, Tanzania using the WetSpa model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Rwetabula

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available A spatially distributed hydrologic model (WetSpa is used to estimate daily river water discharge in the Simiyu river a tributary of Lake Victoria, Tanzania. The model combines topography, landuse and soil maps, and observed daily meteorological time series to predict discharge hydrographs and the spatial distribution of hydrological parameters in the catchment. The elevations in the catchment range from 2000 to 1100 m at the outlet, with average slope of 1.4%. The dominant landuse types are, wasteland, grassland, bushland, cultivated land, and a very small area is covered by surface water. The dominant soil types are sandy loam, followed by sandy clay loam, clay loam, clay, loam and sandy clay. There are two distinctive seasons in the Simiyu catchment. Short rains mainly in November, December and January, and long rains in March to May, resulting in a total average annual precipitation of 700 to 1000 mm. The annual potential evapotranspiration is about 1300 mm, and the river discharge at the catchment outlet ranges from 0 to about 200 m3/s. Global parameters of the model are calibrated using three years of daily observed discharge values measured at the mouth of the river at Lake Victoria. The estimated average travel time of the runoff to the outlet of the catchment is about 2.4 d and maximum 8 d for the most remote areas. The model results also show that the surface runoff and interflow provide respectively 38.6% and 61.4% of the total runoff, while the contribution of groundwater drainage is nil. The absence of groundwater drainage is probably due to the high evaporation demand of the atmosphere, which accounts for about 90% of the total precipitation being lost by evapotranspiration. The annual water balance estimated with the model reveals that the total outflow to Lake Victoria is about 500×106 m3 per year, which occurs mainly in the wet seasons, i.e. from March to May and from November to January. The

  14. Plot and field scale soil moisture dynamics and subsurface wetness control on runoff generation in a headwater in the Ore Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Zehe

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an application of an innovative sampling strategy to assess soil moisture dynamics in a headwater of the Weißeritz in the German eastern Ore Mountains. A grassland site and a forested site were instrumented with two Spatial TDR clusters (STDR that consist of 39 and 32 coated TDR probes of 60 cm length. Distributed time series of vertically averaged soil moisture data from both sites/ensembles were analyzed by statistical and geostatistical methods. Spatial variability and the spatial mean at the forested site were larger than at the grassland site. Furthermore, clustering of TDR probes in combination with long-term monitoring allowed identification of average spatial covariance structures at the small field scale for different wetness states. The correlation length of soil water content as well as the sill to nugget ratio at the grassland site increased with increasing average wetness and but, in contrast, were constant at the forested site. As soil properties at both the forested and grassland sites are extremely variable, this suggests that the correlation structure at the forested site is dominated by the pattern of throughfall and interception. We also found a very strong correlation between antecedent soil moisture at the forested site and runoff coefficients of rainfall-runoff events observed at gauge Rehefeld. Antecedent soil moisture at the forest site explains 92% of the variability in the runoff coefficients. By combining these results with a recession analysis we derived a first conceptual model of the dominant runoff mechanisms operating in this catchment. Finally, we employed a physically based hydrological model to shed light on the controls of soil- and plant morphological parameters on soil average soil moisture at the forested site and the grassland site, respectively. A homogeneous soil setup allowed, after fine tuning of plant morphological parameters, most of the time unbiased predictions of the observed

  15. Effect of the precipitation interpolation method on the performance of a snowmelt runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquin, Alexandra

    2014-05-01

    Uncertainties on the spatial distribution of precipitation seriously affect the reliability of the discharge estimates produced by watershed models. Although there is abundant research evaluating the goodness of fit of precipitation estimates obtained with different gauge interpolation methods, few studies have focused on the influence of the interpolation strategy on the response of watershed models. The relevance of this choice may be even greater in the case of mountain catchments, because of the influence of orography on precipitation. This study evaluates the effect of the precipitation interpolation method on the performance of conceptual type snowmelt runoff models. The HBV Light model version 4.0.0.2, operating at daily time steps, is used as a case study. The model is applied in Aconcagua at Chacabuquito catchment, located in the Andes Mountains of Central Chile. The catchment's area is 2110[Km2] and elevation ranges from 950[m.a.s.l.] to 5930[m.a.s.l.] The local meteorological network is sparse, with all precipitation gauges located below 3000[m.a.s.l.] Precipitation amounts corresponding to different elevation zones are estimated through areal averaging of precipitation fields interpolated from gauge data. Interpolation methods applied include kriging with external drift (KED), optimal interpolation method (OIM), Thiessen polygons (TP), multiquadratic functions fitting (MFF) and inverse distance weighting (IDW). Both KED and OIM are able to account for the existence of a spatial trend in the expectation of precipitation. By contrast, TP, MFF and IDW, traditional methods widely used in engineering hydrology, cannot explicitly incorporate this information. Preliminary analysis confirmed that these methods notably underestimate precipitation in the study catchment, while KED and OIM are able to reduce the bias; this analysis also revealed that OIM provides more reliable estimations than KED in this region. Using input precipitation obtained by each method

  16. Uncertainty in runoff based on Global Climate Model precipitation and temperature data – Part 1: Assessment of Global Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. A. McMahon

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between Global Climate Models (GCMs and within a GCM. Uncertainty between GCM projections of future climate can be assessed through analysis of runs of a given scenario from a wide range of GCMs. Within GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The objective of this, the first of two complementary papers, is to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by identifying and removing poorly performing GCMs prior to the analysis presented in the second paper. Here we assess how well 46 runs from 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3 GCMs are able to reproduce observed precipitation and temperature climatological statistics. The performance of each GCM in reproducing these statistics was ranked and better performing GCMs identified for later analyses. Observed global land surface precipitation and temperature data were drawn from the CRU 3.10 gridded dataset and re-sampled to the resolution of each GCM for comparison. Observed and GCM based estimates of mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, mean monthly precipitation and temperature and Köppen climate type were compared. The main metrics for assessing GCM performance were the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency index and RMSE between modelled and observed long-term statistics. This information combined with a literature review of the performance of the CMIP3 models identified the following five models as the better performing models for the next phase of our analysis in assessing the uncertainty in runoff estimated from GCM projections of precipitation and temperature: HadCM3 (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, MIROCM (Center for Climate System Research (The University of Tokyo, National

  17. Applying profile- and catchment-based mathematical models for evaluating the run-off from a Nordic catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farkas Csilla

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of hydrological processes and water balance elements are important for climate adaptive water management as well as for introducing mitigation measures aiming to improve surface water quality. Mathematical models have the potential to estimate changes in hydrological processes under changing climatic or land use conditions. These models, indeed, need careful calibration and testing before being applied in decision making. The aim of this study was to compare the capability of five different hydrological models to predict the runoff and the soil water balance elements of a small catchment in Norway. The models were harmonised and calibrated against the same data set. In overall, a good agreement between the measured and simulated runoff was obtained for the different models when integrating the results over a week or longer periods. Model simulations indicate that forest appears to be very important for the water balance in the catchment, and that there is a lack of information on land use specific water balance elements. We concluded that joint application of hydrological models serves as a good background for ensemble modelling of water transport processes within a catchment and can highlight the uncertainty of models forecast.

  18. Definition and sensitivity of the conceptual MORDOR rainfall-runoff model parameters using different multi-criteria calibration strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garavaglia, F.; Seyve, E.; Gottardi, F.; Le Lay, M.; Gailhard, J.; Garçon, R.

    2014-12-01

    MORDOR is a conceptual hydrological model extensively used in Électricité de France (EDF, French electric utility company) operational applications: (i) hydrological forecasting, (ii) flood risk assessment, (iii) water balance and (iv) climate change studies. MORDOR is a lumped, reservoir, elevation based model with hourly or daily areal rainfall and air temperature as the driving input data. The principal hydrological processes represented are evapotranspiration, direct and indirect runoff, ground water, snow accumulation and melt and routing. The model has been intensively used at EDF for more than 20 years, in particular for modeling French mountainous watersheds. In the matter of parameters calibration we propose and test alternative multi-criteria techniques based on two specific approaches: automatic calibration using single-objective functions and a priori parameter calibration founded on hydrological watershed features. The automatic calibration approach uses single-objective functions, based on Kling-Gupta efficiency, to quantify the good agreement between the simulated and observed runoff focusing on four different runoff samples: (i) time-series sample, (I) annual hydrological regime, (iii) monthly cumulative distribution functions and (iv) recession sequences.The primary purpose of this study is to analyze the definition and sensitivity of MORDOR parameters testing different calibration techniques in order to: (i) simplify the model structure, (ii) increase the calibration-validation performance of the model and (iii) reduce the equifinality problem of calibration process. We propose an alternative calibration strategy that reaches these goals. The analysis is illustrated by calibrating MORDOR model to daily data for 50 watersheds located in French mountainous regions.

  19. Evaluating the effectiveness of management practices on hydrology and water quality at watershed scale with a rainfall-runoff model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yaoze; Bralts, Vincent F; Engel, Bernard A

    2015-04-01

    The adverse influence of urban development on hydrology and water quality can be reduced by applying best management practices (BMPs) and low impact development (LID) practices. This study applied green roof, rain barrel/cistern, bioretention system, porous pavement, permeable patio, grass strip, grassed swale, wetland channel, retention pond, detention basin, and wetland basin, on Crooked Creek watershed. The model was calibrated and validated for annual runoff volume. A framework for simulating BMPs and LID practices at watershed scales was created, and the impacts of BMPs and LID practices on water quantity and water quality were evaluated with the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-Low Impact Development 2.1 (L-THIA-LID 2.1) model for 16 scenarios. The various levels and combinations of BMPs/LID practices reduced runoff volume by 0 to 26.47%, Total Nitrogen (TN) by 0.30 to 34.20%, Total Phosphorus (TP) by 0.27 to 47.41%, Total Suspended Solids (TSS) by 0.33 to 53.59%, Lead (Pb) by 0.30 to 60.98%, Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) by 0 to 26.70%, and Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) by 0 to 27.52%. The implementation of grass strips in 25% of the watershed where this practice could be applied was the most cost-efficient scenario, with cost per unit reduction of $1m3/yr for runoff, while cost for reductions of two pollutants of concern was $445 kg/yr for Total Nitrogen (TN) and $4871 kg/yr for Total Phosphorous (TP). The scenario with very high levels of BMP and LID practice adoption (scenario 15) reduced runoff volume and pollutant loads from 26.47% to 60.98%, and provided the greatest reduction in runoff volume and pollutant loads among all scenarios. However, this scenario was not as cost-efficient as most other scenarios. The L-THIA-LID 2.1 model is a valid tool that can be applied to various locations to help identify cost effective BMP/LID practice plans at watershed scales.

  20. Evaluation of radar-derived precipitation estimates using runoff simulation : report for the NFR Energy Norway funded project 'Utilisation of weather radar data in atmospheric and hydrological models'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abdella, Yisak; Engeland, Kolbjoern; Lepioufle, Jean-Marie

    2012-11-01

    This report presents the results from the project called 'Utilisation of weather radar data in atmospheric and hydrological models' funded by NFR and Energy Norway. Three precipitation products (radar-derived, interpolated and combination of the two) were generated as input for hydrological models. All the three products were evaluated by comparing the simulated and observed runoff at catchments. In order to expose any bias in the precipitation inputs, no precipitation correction factors were applied. Three criteria were used to measure the performance: Nash, correlation coefficient, and bias. The results shows that the simulations with the combined precipitation input give the best performance. We also see that the radar-derived precipitation estimates give reasonable runoff simulation even without a region specific parameters for the Z-R relationship. All the three products resulted in an underestimation of the estimated runoff, revealing a systematic bias in measurements (e.g. catch deficit, orographic effects, Z-R relationships) that can be improved. There is an important potential of using radar-derived precipitation for simulation of runoff, especially in catchments without precipitation gauges inside.(Author)

  1. Effect of precipitation spatial distribution uncertainty on the uncertainty bounds of a snowmelt runoff model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquin, A. P.

    2012-04-01

    This study analyses the effect of precipitation spatial distribution uncertainty on the uncertainty bounds of a snowmelt runoff model's discharge estimates. Prediction uncertainty bounds are derived using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. The model analysed is a conceptual watershed model operating at a monthly time step. The model divides the catchment into five elevation zones, where the fifth zone corresponds to the catchment glaciers. Precipitation amounts at each elevation zone i are estimated as the product between observed precipitation (at a single station within the catchment) and a precipitation factor FPi. Thus, these factors provide a simplified representation of the spatial variation of precipitation, specifically the shape of the functional relationship between precipitation and height. In the absence of information about appropriate values of the precipitation factors FPi, these are estimated through standard calibration procedures. The catchment case study is Aconcagua River at Chacabuquito, located in the Andean region of Central Chile. Monte Carlo samples of the model output are obtained by randomly varying the model parameters within their feasible ranges. In the first experiment, the precipitation factors FPi are considered unknown and thus included in the sampling process. The total number of unknown parameters in this case is 16. In the second experiment, precipitation factors FPi are estimated a priori, by means of a long term water balance between observed discharge at the catchment outlet, evapotranspiration estimates and observed precipitation. In this case, the number of unknown parameters reduces to 11. The feasible ranges assigned to the precipitation factors in the first experiment are slightly wider than the range of fixed precipitation factors used in the second experiment. The mean squared error of the Box-Cox transformed discharge during the calibration period is used for the evaluation of the

  2. Runoff response for a peri-urban watershed in the Atlantic Forest Biome, southern Brazil, using the Kineros2 model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beling, F. A.; Dias de Paiva, J.; Cauduro Dias de Paiva, E. M.; Heatwole, C.

    2011-12-01

    Simulating the hydrologic response of a watershed for different scenarios is an important tool for assessing the rational use of the land and natural resources, especially in environments where urbanization is not ever an organized procedure. This study used the Kineros2 event oriented hydrological model to simulate the runoff response of a 4.9 km2 peri-urban basin located in the Atlantic Forest biome in Southern Brazil, with 47% of the area being impermeable. The goal of the simulations was to estimate the characteristic parameters of the soils and land cover of the watershed to then enable the prediction of basin response for different land uses. To acheive this objective, the responses of ten measured rainfall-runoff events were used to calibrate five parameters of the model. The PEST (Model-Independent Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis) package was used for automatic calibration of the model parameters. The quality of results is shown in Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index values varying from 0.64 up to 0.98, with an average value of 0.88. The average absolute error in the simulated peak flow was 4.5% and 20.7% in the simulated runoff volume. A cross-validation using the same events used in the calibration and using average values of the calibrated parameters. gave Nash-Sutcliffe index values varying from 0.26 up to 0.92, with an average value of 0.73. The average absolute error in the simulated peak flow and runoff volume were 22.7% and 25.6%, respectively. We used two validated events to simulate distinct scenarios, being representative of a wet and of dry antecedent moisture conditions. For a scenario of a totally forested land cover, the simulated peak flow and runoff volume for a dry condition changed -53% and -46% respectively, and for a wet condition, -63% and -41% respectively, relatively to the present land use. For a complete pasture land use, the simulated peak flow and runoff volume for a dry condition changed -31% and -27% respectively and

  3. Modeling Glacier Mass Balance and Runoff in the Koxkar River Basin on the South Slope of the Tianshan Mountains, China, from 1959 to 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min Xu

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Water resources provided by alpine glaciers are an important pillar for people in the arid regions of west China. In this study, the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenavdelning (HBV light model was applied to simulate glacier mass balance (GMB and runoff in the Koxkar River Basin (KRB on the south slope of Mount Tumur, in the western Tianshan Mountains. Daily temperature and precipitation were calculated by multiple linear regressions and gradient-inverse distance weighting, respectively, based on in-situ observed data by automatic weather stations (AWSs in the Koxkar River Basin (KRB; 2007–2009 and four meteorological stations neighboring the basin (1959–2009. Observed daily air temperature and precipitation were input into HBV model. The runoff data in 2007/2008 and 2008/2009 were used to calibrate and validate the model in 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. Generally, the model simulated runoff very well. The annual glacier mass balance and runoff were calculated by the HBV model and were driven by interpolated meteorological data between 1959 and 2009. The calculated glacier mass balances were reasonable, and were compared with nearby glaciers. The results indicate the decreasing trend of mass balance in the Koxkar Glacier, with an average value of ablation of −370.4 mm·a−1 between 1959 and 2009. The annual runoff showed an increasing trend (5.51 mm·a−1. Further analysis showed that the runoff is more sensitive to temperature than precipitation in KRB.

  4. Towards a Bayesian total error analysis of conceptual rainfall-runoff models: Characterising model error using storm-dependent parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuczera, George; Kavetski, Dmitri; Franks, Stewart; Thyer, Mark

    2006-11-01

    SummaryCalibration and prediction in conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR) modelling is affected by the uncertainty in the observed forcing/response data and the structural error in the model. This study works towards the goal of developing a robust framework for dealing with these sources of error and focuses on model error. The characterisation of model error in CRR modelling has been thwarted by the convenient but indefensible treatment of CRR models as deterministic descriptions of catchment dynamics. This paper argues that the fluxes in CRR models should be treated as stochastic quantities because their estimation involves spatial and temporal averaging. Acceptance that CRR models are intrinsically stochastic paves the way for a more rational characterisation of model error. The hypothesis advanced in this paper is that CRR model error can be characterised by storm-dependent random variation of one or more CRR model parameters. A simple sensitivity analysis is used to identify the parameters most likely to behave stochastically, with variation in these parameters yielding the largest changes in model predictions as measured by the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion. A Bayesian hierarchical model is then formulated to explicitly differentiate between forcing, response and model error. It provides a very general framework for calibration and prediction, as well as for testing hypotheses regarding model structure and data uncertainty. A case study calibrating a six-parameter CRR model to daily data from the Abercrombie catchment (Australia) demonstrates the considerable potential of this approach. Allowing storm-dependent variation in just two model parameters (with one of the parameters characterising model error and the other reflecting input uncertainty) yields a substantially improved model fit raising the Nash-Sutcliffe statistic from 0.74 to 0.94. Of particular significance is the use of posterior diagnostics to test the key assumptions about the data and model errors

  5. Corps of Engineers’ Experience with Automatic Calibration of a Precipitation-Runoff Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-05-01

    ERAIN now Number Number Value fixed at the selected value. Select an appropriate regional value of RTIO. if I TC+R /( TAREA )/TRHR RTIOL is unknown. If...remaining unknown parameters using the TAREA - Drainage area, in square miles optimization scheme. Select a value of TRHR - Computation interval, in hours...resour- nificantly better reconstitution of runoff ces planning and management by the Corps of 8 Engineers, computer program HEC-1 was devel- U. S

  6. The last developments of the airGR R-package, an open source software for rainfall-runoff modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirel, Guillaume; Delaigue, Olivier; Coron, Laurent; Perrin, Charles; Andréassian, Vazken

    2017-04-01

    Lumped hydrological models are useful and convenient tools for research, engineering and educational purposes. They propose catchment-scale representations of the precipitation-discharge relationship. Thanks to their limited data requirements, they can be easily implemented and run. With such models, it is possible to simulate a number of hydrological key processes over the catchment with limited structural and parametric complexity, typically evapotranspiration, runoff, underground losses, etc. The Hydrology Group at Irstea (Antony) has been developing a suite of rainfall-runoff models over the past 30 years with the main objectives of designing models as efficient as possible in terms of streamflow simulation, applicable to a wide range of catchments and having low data requirements. This resulted in a suite of models running at different time steps (from hourly to annual) applicable for various issues including water balance estimation, forecasting, simulation of impacts and scenario testing. Recently, Irstea has developed an easy-to-use R-package (R Core Team, 2016), called airGR (Coron et al., 2016, 2017), to make these models widely available. It includes: - the water balance annual GR1A model, - the monthly GR2M model, - three versions of the daily model, namely GR4J, GR5J and GR6J, - the hourly GR4H model, - a degree-day snow model CemaNeige. The airGR package has been designed to facilitate the use by non-expert users and allow the addition of evaluation criteria, models or calibration algorithm selected by the end-user. Each model core is coded in FORTRAN to ensure low computational time. The other package functions (i.e. mainly the calibration algorithm and the efficiency criteria) are coded in R. The package is also used for educational purposes. It allows for convenient implementation of model inter-comparisons and large sample hydrology experiments. The airGR package undergoes continuous developments for improving the efficiency, computational time

  7. A weakly-constrained data assimilation approach to address rainfall-runoff model structural inadequacy in streamflow prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Haksu; Seo, Dong-Jun; Noh, Seong Jin

    2016-11-01

    This paper presents a simple yet effective weakly-constrained (WC) data assimilation (DA) approach for hydrologic models which accounts for model structural inadequacies associated with rainfall-runoff transformation processes. Compared to the strongly-constrained (SC) DA, WC DA adjusts the control variables less while producing similarly or more accurate analysis. Hence the adjusted model states are dynamically more consistent with those of the base model. The inadequacy of a rainfall-runoff model was modeled as an additive error to runoff components prior to routing and penalized in the objective function. Two example modeling applications, distributed and lumped, were carried out to investigate the effects of the WC DA approach on DA results. For distributed modeling, the distributed Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model was applied to the TIFM7 Basin in Missouri, USA. For lumped modeling, the lumped SAC-SMA model was applied to nineteen basins in Texas. In both cases, the variational DA (VAR) technique was used to assimilate discharge data at the basin outlet. For distributed SAC-SMA, spatially homogeneous error modeling yielded updated states that are spatially much more similar to the a priori states, as quantified by Earth Mover's Distance (EMD), than spatially heterogeneous error modeling by up to ∼10 times. DA experiments using both lumped and distributed SAC-SMA modeling indicated that assimilating outlet flow using the WC approach generally produce smaller mean absolute difference as well as higher correlation between the a priori and the updated states than the SC approach, while producing similar or smaller root mean square error of streamflow analysis and prediction. Large differences were found in both lumped and distributed modeling cases between the updated and the a priori lower zone tension and primary free water contents for both WC and SC approaches, indicating possible model structural deficiency in describing low flows or

  8. Modelling effects of acid deposition and climate change on soil and run-off chemistry at Risdalsheia, Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Mol-Dijkstra

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Elevated carbon dioxide levels, caused by anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, and higher temperature may lead to increased plant growth and uptake of nitrogen, but increased temperature may lead to increased nitrogen mineralisation causing enhanced nitrogen leaching. The overall result of both counteracting effects is largely unknown. To gain insight into the long-term effects, the geochemical model SMART2 was applied using data from the catchment-scale experiments of the RAIN and CLIMEX projects, conducted on boreal forest ecosystems at Risdalsheia, southern Norway. These unique experiments at the ecosystem scale provide information on the short-term effects and interactions of nitrogen deposition and increased temperature and carbon dioxide on carbon and nitrogen cycling and especially the run-off chemistry. To predict changes in soil processes in response to climate change, the model was extended by including the temperature effect on mineralisation, nitrification, denitrification, aluminium dissolution and mineral weathering. The extended model was tested on the two manipulated catchments at Risdalsheia and long-term effects were evaluated by performing long-time runs. The effects of climate change treatment, which resulted in increased nitrogen fluxes at both catchments, were slightly overestimated by SMART2. The temperature dependency of mineralisation was simulated adequately but the temperature effect on nitrification was slightly overestimated. Monitored changes in base cation concentrations and pH were quite well simulated with SMART2. The long-term simulations indicate that the increase in nitrogen run-off is only a temporary effect; in the long-term, no effect on total nitrogen leaching is predicted. At higher deposition levels the temporary increase in nitrogen leaching lasts longer than at low deposition. Contrary to nitrogen leaching, temperature increase leads to a permanent decrease in aluminium

  9. Evaluation of Satellite-based Global Hydrologic Simulation using the Distributed CREST Model and Global Runoff Data Centre Archives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, X.; Hong, Y.; Gourley, J. J.; Wang, X.

    2011-12-01

    Flooding is one of the most deadly natural hazards around the world. Distributed hydrologic models can provide the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff. Implementation of a flood prediction and/or forecast system using a distributed hydrologic model can potentially help mitigate flood-induced hazards. In this study, we propose the use of the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) distributed hydrological model driven by real-time rainfall forcing from TRMM-based multi-satellite products and/or precipitation forecast data from the Global Forecast System model (GFS), combined with automatic parameter optimization methods, to estimate hydrological fluxes, storages and inundated areas. Evaluations show that: 1) the capability of real-time streamflow prediction and/or forecast at drainage outlets and identification of inundated areas upstream is an achievable goal even for ungauged basins; 2) a-priori, physically-based parameter estimates with CREST reduce the dependence on rainfall-runoff data often required to calibrate distributed hydrologic models; and 3) the validation of CREST simulations of basin discharge are skillful in several basins throughout the world.

  10. Export Mechanisms of Persistent Toxic Substances (PTSs) in Urban Land Uses during Rainfall-Runoff Events: Experimental and Modeling Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Y.; Luo, X.; Lin, Z.

    2016-12-01

    The urban environment has a variety of Persistent Toxic Substances (PTS), such as Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) and mercury. Soil in pervious lands and dust deposited on impervious surfaces are two major sinks of PTSs in urbanized areas, which could contribute significant nonpoint source loadings of PTSs to adjacent waterbodies during rainfall-runoff events and therefore jeopardize aquatic ecosystems. However, PTSs have been much less understood regarding their export mechanisms in urban land uses, and efforts to model nonpoint source pollution processes of PTSs have been rare. We designed and performed in-lab rainfall-runoff simulation experiments to investigate transport of PAHs and mercury by runoff from urban soils. Organic petrology analysis (OPA) techniques were introduced to analyze the soil and sediment compositions. Our study revealed the limitation of the classic enrichment theory which attributes enrichment of pollutants in eroded sediment solely to the sediment's particle size distribution and adopts simple relationships between enrichment ratio and sediment flux. We found that carbonaceous materials (CMs) in soil are the direct and major sorbents for PAHs and mercury, and highly different in content, mobility and adsorption capacity for the PTSs. Anthropogenic CMs like black carbon components largely control the transport of soil PAHs, while humic substances have a dominant influence on the transport of soil mercury. A model was further developed to estimate the enrichment ratio of PAHs, which innovatively applies the fugacity concept.We also conducted field studies on export of PAHs by runoff from urban roads. A variable time-step model was developed to simulate the continuous cycles of PAH buildup and washoff on urban roads. The dependence of the pollution level on antecedent weather conditions was investigated and embodied in the model. The applicability of this approach and its value to environmental management was demonstrated by a case

  11. Validating the Runoff from the PRECIS Model Using a Large-Scale Routing Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CAO Lijuan; DONG Wenjie; XU Yinlong; ZHANG Yong; Michael SPARROW

    2007-01-01

    The streamflow over the Yellow River basin is simulated using the PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) regional climate model driven by 15-year (1979-1993) ECMWF reanalysis data as the initial and lateral boundary conditions and an off-line large-scale routing model (LRM). The LRM uses physical catchment and river channel information and allows streamflow to be predicted for large continental rivers with a 1°× 1° spatial resolution. The results show that the PRECIS model can reproduce the general southeast to northwest gradient distribution of the precipitation over the Yellow River basin. The PRECISLRM model combination has the capability to simulate the seasonal and annual streamflow over the Yellow River basin. The simulated streamflow is generally coincident with the naturalized streamflow both in timing and in magnitude.

  12. Statistics for stochastic modeling of volume reduction, hydrograph extension, and water-quality treatment by structural stormwater runoff best management practices (BMPs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granato, Gregory E.

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to indicate the risk for stormwater concentrations, flows, and loads to be above user-selected water-quality goals and the potential effectiveness of mitigation measures to reduce such risks. SELDM models the potential effect of mitigation measures by using Monte Carlo methods with statistics that approximate the net effects of structural and nonstructural best management practices (BMPs). In this report, structural BMPs are defined as the components of the drainage pathway between the source of runoff and a stormwater discharge location that affect the volume, timing, or quality of runoff. SELDM uses a simple stochastic statistical model of BMP performance to develop planning-level estimates of runoff-event characteristics. This statistical approach can be used to represent a single BMP or an assemblage of BMPs. The SELDM BMP-treatment module has provisions for stochastic modeling of three stormwater treatments: volume reduction, hydrograph extension, and water-quality treatment. In SELDM, these three treatment variables are modeled by using the trapezoidal distribution and the rank correlation with the associated highway-runoff variables. This report describes methods for calculating the trapezoidal-distribution statistics and rank correlation coefficients for stochastic modeling of volume reduction, hydrograph extension, and water-quality treatment by structural stormwater BMPs and provides the calculated values for these variables. This report also provides robust methods for estimating the minimum irreducible concentration (MIC), which is the lowest expected effluent concentration from a particular BMP site or a class of BMPs. These statistics are different from the statistics commonly used to characterize or compare BMPs. They are designed to provide a stochastic transfer function to approximate

  13. Impact of rainfall spatial distribution on rainfall-runoff modelling efficiency and initial soil moisture conditions estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Tramblay

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A good knowledge of rainfall is essential for hydrological operational purposes such as flood forecasting. The objective of this paper was to analyze, on a relatively large sample of flood events, how rainfall-runoff modeling using an event-based model can be sensitive to the use of spatial rainfall compared to mean areal rainfall over the watershed. This comparison was based not only on the model's efficiency in reproducing the flood events but also through the estimation of the initial conditions by the model, using different rainfall inputs. The initial conditions of soil moisture are indeed a key factor for flood modeling in the Mediterranean region. In order to provide a soil moisture index that could be related to the initial condition of the model, the soil moisture output of the Safran-Isba-Modcou (SIM model developed by Météo-France was used. This study was done in the Gardon catchment (545 km2 in South France, using uniform or spatial rainfall data derived from rain gauge and radar for 16 flood events. The event-based model considered combines the SCS runoff production model and the Lag and Route routing model. Results show that spatial rainfall increases the efficiency of the model. The advantage of using spatial rainfall is marked for some of the largest flood events. In addition, the relationship between the model's initial condition and the external predictor of soil moisture provided by the SIM model is better when using spatial rainfall, in particular when using spatial radar data with R2 values increasing from 0.61 to 0.72.

  14. Development of a hydrological model for simulation of runoff from catchments unbounded by ridge lines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vema, Vamsikrishna; Sudheer, K. P.; Chaubey, I.

    2017-08-01

    Watershed hydrological models are effective tools for simulating the hydrological processes in the watershed. Although there are a plethora of hydrological models, none of them can be directly applied to make water conservation decisions in irregularly bounded areas that do not confirm to topographically defined ridge lines. This study proposes a novel hydrological model that can be directly applied to any catchment, with or without ridge line boundaries. The model is based on the water balance concept, and a linear function concept to approximate the cross-boundary flow from upstream areas to the administrative catchment under consideration. The developed model is tested in 2 watersheds - Riesel Experimental Watershed and a sub-basin of Cedar Creek Watershed in Texas, USA. Hypothetical administrative catchments that did not confirm to the location of ridge lines were considered for verifying the efficacy of the model for hydrologic simulations. The linear function concept used to account the cross boundary flow was based on the hypothesis that the flow coming from outside the boundary to administrative area was proportional to the flow generated in the boundary grid cell. The model performance was satisfactory with an NSE and r2 of ≥0.80 and a PBIAS of <25 in all the cases. The simulated hydrographs for the administrative catchments of the watersheds were in good agreement with the observed hydrographs, indicating a satisfactory performance of the model in the administratively bounded areas.

  15. Data Model and Relational Database Design for Highway Runoff Water-Quality Metadata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granato, Gregory E.; Tessler, Steven

    2001-01-01

    A National highway and urban runoff waterquality metadatabase was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration as part of the National Highway Runoff Water-Quality Data and Methodology Synthesis (NDAMS). The database was designed to catalog available literature and to document results of the synthesis in a format that would facilitate current and future research on highway and urban runoff. This report documents the design and implementation of the NDAMS relational database, which was designed to provide a catalog of available information and the results of an assessment of the available data. All the citations and the metadata collected during the review process are presented in a stratified metadatabase that contains citations for relevant publications, abstracts (or previa), and reportreview metadata for a sample of selected reports that document results of runoff quality investigations. The database is referred to as a metadatabase because it contains information about available data sets rather than a record of the original data. The database contains the metadata needed to evaluate and characterize how valid, current, complete, comparable, and technically defensible published and available information may be when evaluated for application to the different dataquality objectives as defined by decision makers. This database is a relational database, in that all information is ultimately linked to a given citation in the catalog of available reports. The main database file contains 86 tables consisting of 29 data tables, 11 association tables, and 46 domain tables. The data tables all link to a particular citation, and each data table is focused on one aspect of the information collected in the literature search and the evaluation of available information. This database is implemented in the Microsoft (MS) Access database software because it is widely used within and outside of government and is familiar to many

  16. Hydraulic Geometry, GIS and Remote Sensing, Techniques against Rainfall-Runoff Models for Estimating Flood Magnitude in Ephemeral Fluvial Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Garcia-Lorenzo

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows the combined use of remotely sensed data and hydraulic geometry methods as an alternative to rainfall-runoff models. Hydraulic geometric data and boolean images of water sheets obtained from satellite images after storm events were integrated in a Geographical Information System. Channel cross-sections were extracted from a high resolution Digital Terrain Model (DTM and superimposed on the image cover to estimate the peak flow using HEC-RAS. The proposed methodology has been tested in ephemeral channels (ramblas on the coastal zone in south-eastern Spain. These fluvial systems constitute an important natural hazard due to their high discharges and sediment loads. In particular, different areas affected by floods during the period 1997 to 2009 were delimited through HEC-GeoRAs from hydraulic geometry data and Landsat images of these floods (Landsat‑TM5 and Landsat-ETM+7. Such an approach has been validated against rainfall-surface runoff models (SCS Dimensionless Unit Hydrograph, SCSD, Témez gamma HU Tγ and the Modified Rational method, MRM comparing their results with flood hydrographs of the Automatic Hydrologic Information System (AHIS in several ephemeral channels in the Murcia Region. The results obtained from the method providing a better fit were used to calculate different hydraulic geometry parameters, especially in residual flood areas.

  17. Using the KINEROS2 modeling framework to evaluate the increase in storm runoff from residential development in a semi-arid environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Goodrich, David C.; Unkrich, Carl L.

    2013-01-01

    The increase in runoff from urbanization is well known; one extreme example comes from a 13 hectare residential neighborhood in southeast Arizona where runoff was 27 times greater than an adjacent grassland watershed over a forty‐month period from 2005 to 2008. Rainfall‐runoff modeling using the newly‐described KINEROS2 urban element and tension infiltrometer measurements indicate that 17±14 percent of this increase in runoff is due to a 53 percent decrease in the saturated hydraulic conductivity of constructed pervious areas, as compared to the undeveloped grassland. Directly connected impervious areas, primarily streets and driveways, cause 56 percent of the increase in runoff, and indirectly connected impervious areas, primarily rooftops and sidewalks, and a decrease in canopy interception account for the remaining 27 percent increase. Tension infiltrometer measurements show that saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) is about double in the grassland watershed than in the urban watershed, 6.2 ± 3.5mm/hr and 2.9 ± 1.6mm/hr, respectively. Ks in the urban watershed identified from calibrating the rainfall‐runoff model to measured runoff is 9.5 ± 2.8 mm/hr—higher than what was measured but much lower than the 26 mm/hr value indicated by a soil‐texture based KINEROS2 parameter look‐up table. A new component of the KINEROS2 modeling framework, the urban element, forms the basis for the model by simulating a contiguous row of houses and the adjoining street as a series of pervious and impervious overland flow planes. Tests using different levels of discretization found that watershed geometry can be represented in a simplified manner, although more detailed discretization led to better model performance.

  18. P2S--Coupled simulation with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the Stream Temperature Network (SNTemp) Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markstrom, Steven L.

    2012-01-01

    A software program, called P2S, has been developed which couples the daily stream temperature simulation capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey Stream Network Temperature model with the watershed hydrology simulation capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process watershed model that simulates hydrologic response to various combinations of climate and land use. Stream Network Temperature was developed to help aquatic biologists and engineers predict the effects of changes that hydrology and energy have on water temperatures. P2S will allow scientists and watershed managers to evaluate the effects of historical climate and projected climate change, landscape evolution, and resource management scenarios on watershed hydrology and in-stream water temperature.

  19. Modelling surface runoff and water productivity in small dryland watersheds with water-harvesting interventions, an application from Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruggeman, A.; Akroush, S.; Mudabber, M.; Ziadat, F.; Oweis, T.

    2009-04-01

    Vast areas of the rangelands (badia) of West Asia and North Africa are severely degraded due to over-grazing, cutting of shrubs and ploughing. Because of the scarce vegetation cover and the often dense soil surface crust, a large part of the limited rainfall runs off to wadis or evaporates back to the atmosphere with little local benefit. To develop and evaluate techniques for rehabilitation of the degraded lands an integrated research project was implemented with two communities in the badia of Jordan. The average annual rainfall in the research area is approximately 150 mm/yr. The project tested different micro-catchment water-harvesting techniques (earthen dikes planted with fodder shrubs) to capture the runoff and improve plant survival and growth in the watersheds. To estimate the long-term benefits of these water-harvesting systems and to assist with watershed-level planning and design a model is needed. However, current models can not capture the spatially variable runoff and water-harvesting processes in these environments. The objective of the research was to develop a model for estimating the runoff and biomass production of small badia watersheds with and without water-harvesting interventions. The basic spatial unit of the model is a square grid cell. Each cell is assigned to a specific land use unit, based on the characteristics of the soil and surface that affect the runoff, infiltration, and biomass production potential of the land. The model computes infiltration and runoff for each cell from daily rainfall with a curvilinear equation, based on data from plot studies. The runoff is routed using a 10-m digital elevation model and can infiltrate in downstream cells. The water infiltrated in each cell is summed for the August-September hydrologic year; and the annual biomass production is computed based on the water productivity potential of the cell. The model was applied to a 119-ha watershed, where 11 ha of micro-catchments were implemented, using a

  20. Reliable long-range ensemble streamflow forecasts: Combining calibrated climate forecasts with a conceptual runoff model and a staged error model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, James C.; Wang, Q. J.; Li, Ming; Robertson, David E.; Schepen, Andrew

    2016-10-01

    We present a new streamflow forecasting system called forecast guided stochastic scenarios (FoGSS). FoGSS makes use of ensemble seasonal precipitation forecasts from a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM). The CGCM forecasts are post-processed with the method of calibration, bridging and merging (CBaM) to produce ensemble precipitation forecasts over river catchments. CBaM corrects biases and removes noise from the CGCM forecasts, and produces highly reliable ensemble precipitation forecasts. The post-processed CGCM forecasts are used to force the Wapaba monthly rainfall-runoff model. Uncertainty in the hydrological modeling is accounted for with a three-stage error model. Stage 1 applies the log-sinh transformation to normalize residuals and homogenize their variance; Stage 2 applies a conditional bias-correction to correct biases and help remove negative forecast skill; Stage 3 applies an autoregressive model to improve forecast accuracy at short lead-times and propagate uncertainty through the forecast. FoGSS generates ensemble forecasts in the form of time series for the coming 12 months. In a case study of two catchments, FoGSS produces reliable forecasts at all lead-times. Forecast skill with respect to climatology is evident to lead-times of about 3 months. At longer lead-times, forecast skill approximates that of climatology forecasts; that is, forecasts become like stochastic scenarios. Because forecast skill is virtually never negative at long lead-times, forecasts of accumulated volumes can be skillful. Forecasts of accumulated 12 month streamflow volumes are significantly skillful in several instances, and ensembles of accumulated volumes are reliable. We conclude that FoGSS forecasts could be highly useful to water managers.

  1. Documentation of a daily mean stream temperature module—An enhancement to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Michael J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Regan, R. Steven; Atkinson, R. Dwight

    2017-09-15

    A module for simulation of daily mean water temperature in a network of stream segments has been developed as an enhancement to the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). This new module is based on the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Stream Network Temperature model, a mechanistic, one-dimensional heat transport model. The new module is integrated in PRMS. Stream-water temperature simulation is activated by selection of the appropriate input