EVALUATION OF RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS FOR MEDITERRANEAN SUBCATCHMENTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Cilek

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The development and the application of rainfall-runoff models have been a corner-stone of hydrological research for many decades. The amount of rainfall and its intensity and variability control the generation of runoff and the erosional processes operating at different scales. These interactions can be greatly variable in Mediterranean catchments with marked hydrological fluctuations. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of rainfall-runoff model, for rainfall-runoff simulation in a Mediterranean subcatchment. The Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA, a simplified hydrological process-based approach, was used in this study to combine hydrological surface runoff factors. In total 128 input layers derived from data set includes; climate, topography, land use, crop type, planting date, and soil characteristics, are required to run the model. Initial ground cover was estimated from the Landsat ETM data provided by ESA. This hydrological model was evaluated in terms of their performance in Goksu River Watershed, Turkey. It is located at the Central Eastern Mediterranean Basin of Turkey. The area is approximately 2000 km2. The landscape is dominated by bare ground, agricultural and forests. The average annual rainfall is 636.4mm. This study has a significant importance to evaluate different model performances in a complex Mediterranean basin. The results provided comprehensive insight including advantages and limitations of modelling approaches in the Mediterranean environment.

Evaluation of Surface Runoff Generation Processes Using a Rainfall Simulator: A Small Scale Laboratory Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Danáčová, Michaela; Valent, Peter; Výleta, Roman

2017-12-01

Nowadays, rainfall simulators are being used by many researchers in field or laboratory experiments. The main objective of most of these experiments is to better understand the underlying runoff generation processes, and to use the results in the process of calibration and validation of hydrological models. Many research groups have assembled their own rainfall simulators, which comply with their understanding of rainfall processes, and the requirements of their experiments. Most often, the existing rainfall simulators differ mainly in the size of the irrigated area, and the way they generate rain drops. They can be characterized by the accuracy, with which they produce a rainfall of a given intensity, the size of the irrigated area, and the rain drop generating mechanism. Rainfall simulation experiments can provide valuable information about the genesis of surface runoff, infiltration of water into soil and rainfall erodibility. Apart from the impact of physical properties of soil, its moisture and compaction on the generation of surface runoff and the amount of eroded particles, some studies also investigate the impact of vegetation cover of the whole area of interest. In this study, the rainfall simulator was used to simulate the impact of the slope gradient of the irrigated area on the amount of generated runoff and sediment yield. In order to eliminate the impact of external factors and to improve the reproducibility of the initial conditions, the experiments were conducted in laboratory conditions. The laboratory experiments were carried out using a commercial rainfall simulator, which was connected to an external peristaltic pump. The pump maintained a constant and adjustable inflow of water, which enabled to overcome the maximum volume of simulated precipitation of 2.3 l, given by the construction of the rainfall simulator, while maintaining constant characteristics of the simulated precipitation. In this study a 12-minute rainfall with a constant intensity

Markov-switching model for nonstationary runoff conditioned on El Nino information

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gelati, Emiliano; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

2010-01-01

We define a Markov-modulated autoregressive model with exogenous input (MARX) to generate runoff scenarios using climatic information. Runoff parameterization is assumed to be conditioned on a hidden climate state following a Markov chain, where state transition probabilities are functions...... of the climatic input. MARX allows stochastic modeling of nonstationary runoff, as runoff anomalies are described by a mixture of autoregressive models with exogenous input, each one corresponding to a climate state. We apply MARX to inflow time series of the Daule Peripa reservoir (Ecuador). El Nino Southern...... Oscillation (ENSO) information is used to condition runoff parameterization. Among the investigated ENSO indexes, the NINO 1+2 sea surface temperature anomalies and the trans-Nino index perform best as predictors. In the perspective of reservoir optimization at various time scales, MARX produces realistic...

Event-based model diagnosis of rainfall-runoff model structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stanzel, P.

2012-01-01

The objective of this research is a comparative evaluation of different rainfall-runoff model structures. Comparative model diagnostics facilitate the assessment of strengths and weaknesses of each model. The application of multiple models allows an analysis of simulation uncertainties arising from the selection of model structure, as compared with effects of uncertain parameters and precipitation input. Four different model structures, including conceptual and physically based approaches, are compared. In addition to runoff simulations, results for soil moisture and the runoff components of overland flow, interflow and base flow are analysed. Catchment runoff is simulated satisfactorily by all four model structures and shows only minor differences. Systematic deviations from runoff observations provide insight into model structural deficiencies. While physically based model structures capture some single runoff events better, they do not generally outperform conceptual model structures. Contributions to uncertainty in runoff simulations stemming from the choice of model structure show similar dimensions to those arising from parameter selection and the representation of precipitation input. Variations in precipitation mainly affect the general level and peaks of runoff, while different model structures lead to different simulated runoff dynamics. Large differences between the four analysed models are detected for simulations of soil moisture and, even more pronounced, runoff components. Soil moisture changes are more dynamical in the physically based model structures, which is in better agreement with observations. Streamflow contributions of overland flow are considerably lower in these models than in the more conceptual approaches. Observations of runoff components are rarely made and are not available in this study, but are shown to have high potential for an effective selection of appropriate model structures (author) [de

Integrating Artificial Neural Networks into the VIC Model for Rainfall-Runoff Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Changqing Meng

2016-09-01

Full Text Available A hybrid rainfall-runoff model was developed in this study by integrating the variable infiltration capacity (VIC model with artificial neural networks (ANNs. In the proposed model, the prediction interval of the ANN replaces separate, individual simulation (i.e., single simulation. The spatial heterogeneity of horizontal resolution, subgrid-scale features and their influence on the streamflow can be assessed according to the VIC model. In the routing module, instead of a simple linear superposition of the streamflow generated from each subbasin, ANNs facilitate nonlinear mappings of the streamflow produced from each subbasin into the total streamflow at the basin outlet. A total of three subbasins were delineated and calibrated independently via the VIC model; daily runoff errors were simulated for each subbasin, then corrected by an ANN bias-correction model. The initial streamflow and corrected runoff from the simulation for individual subbasins serve as inputs to the ANN routing model. The feasibility of this proposed method was confirmed according to the performance of its application to a case study on rainfall-runoff prediction in the Jinshajiang River Basin, the headwater area of the Yangtze River.

Runoff generation in a Mediterranean semi-arid landscape: Thresholds, scale, rainfall and catchment characteristics

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Ries, Fabian; Schmidt, Sebastian; Sauter, Martin; Lange, Jens

2016-04-01

Surface runoff acts as an integrated response of catchment characteristics and hydrological processes. In the Eastern Mediterranean region, a lack of runoff data has hindered a better understanding of runoff generation processes on the catchment scale, despite the importance of surface runoff as a water resource or flood hazard. Our main aim was to identify and explain differences in catchment runoff reactions across a variety of scales. Over a period of five years, we observed runoff in ephemeral streams of seven watersheds with sizes between 3 and 129 km2. Landuse and surface cover types (share of vegetation, bare soil and rock outcrops) were derived from aerial images by objective classification techniques. Using data from a dense rainfall network we analysed the effects of scale, catchment properties and aridity on runoff generation. Thereby we extracted rainfall and corresponding runoff events from our time-series to calculate event based rainfall characteristics and catchment runoff coefficients. Soil moisture observations provided additional information on antecedent moisture conditions, infiltration characteristics and the evolution of saturated areas. In contrast to the prevailing opinion that the proportion of Hortonian overland flow increases with aridity, we found that in our area the largest share (> 95 %) of runoff is generated by saturation excess overland flow in response to long lasting, rainfall events of high amount. This was supported by a strong correlation between event runoff and precipitation totals. Similar rainfall thresholds (50 mm) for runoff generation were observed in all investigated catchments. No scale effects on runoff coefficients were found; instead we identified up to three-fold runoff coefficients in catchments with larger extension of arid areas, higher percentage of rock outcrops and urbanization. Comparing two headwater catchments with noticeable differences in extent of olive orchards, no difference in runoff generation was

Statistical analysis and modelling of surface runoff from arable fields

OpenAIRE

P. Fiener; K. Auerswald; F. Winter; M. Disse

2013-01-01

Surface runoff generation on arable fields is an important driver of (local) flooding, on-site and off-site damages by erosion, and of nutrient and agrochemical transport. In general, three different processes generate surface runoff (Hortonian runoff, saturation excess runoff, and return of subsurface flow). Despite the developments in our understanding of these processes it remains difficult to predict, which processes govern runoff generation during the course of an event or through...

Century-scale variability in global annual runoff examined using a water balance model

Science.gov (United States)

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2011-01-01

A monthly water balance model (WB model) is used with CRUTS2.1 monthly temperature and precipitation data to generate time series of monthly runoff for all land areas of the globe for the period 1905 through 2002. Even though annual precipitation accounts for most of the temporal and spatial variability in annual runoff, increases in temperature have had an increasingly negative effect on annual runoff after 1980. Although the effects of increasing temperature on runoff became more apparent after 1980, the relative magnitude of these effects are small compared to the effects of precipitation on global runoff. ?? 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

Effects of Cadastral Boundaries in Agricultural Land on Runoff Generation

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Kumar, P.; Tripathi, S.

2011-12-01

The Gangetic Plain is among the most fertile and highly cultivated regions of the world. It supports a large agrarian population that is rapidly growing since the Green Revolution of 1960s. With increasing population, the average farm size is decreasing. Consequently, the density of cadastral boundaries, which are used for separating individual farm holdings, is increasing. The cadastral boundaries in the Gangetic Plains are typically 25 to 30 cm high and 30 to 60 cm wide. These boundaries segment the flat topography of the region, creating small artificial water storages, the effect of which on the hydrology of the region is not extensively investigated. The objective of this research is to develop a laboratory scale physical model for understanding the effect of cadastral boundaries and resulting artificial storages on runoff generation. Experiments were performed in a hydrological apparatus equipped for simulating rainfall-runoff processes under control conditions. The experiments were carried out for watersheds with no cadastral boundaries, and with cadastral boundaries of varying dimensions and densities. Changes in the observed runoff were used to develop a mathematical model for explaining and predicting the impact of cadastral boundaries on the hydrology of the Gangetic Plains.

Surface runoff generation in a small watershed covered by sugarcane and riparian forest

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafael Pires Fernandes

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Since an understanding of how runoff is generated is of great importance to soil conservation, to water availability and to the management of a watershed, the objective of this study was to understand the generation of surface runoff in a watershed covered by sugarcane and riparian forest. Nine surface runoff plots were set up, evenly distributed on the lower, middle and upper slopes. The lower portion was covered by riparian forest. We showed that the average surface runoff coefficient along the slope in the present study was higher than in other studies under different land uses. Furthermore, the surface runoff was higher under sugarcane compared to the riparian forest, especially after sugarcane harvesting. Besides land cover, other factors such as the characteristics of rainfall events, relief and physical soil characteristics such as soil bulk density and saturated hydraulic conductivity influenced the surface runoff generation.

Evaluation of Three Models for Simulating Pesticide Runoff from Irrigated Agricultural Fields.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xuyang; Goh, Kean S

2015-11-01

Three models were evaluated for their accuracy in simulating pesticide runoff at the edge of agricultural fields: Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM), and OpusCZ. Modeling results on runoff volume, sediment erosion, and pesticide loss were compared with measurements taken from field studies. Models were also compared on their theoretical foundations and ease of use. For runoff events generated by sprinkler irrigation and rainfall, all models performed equally well with small errors in simulating water, sediment, and pesticide runoff. The mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) were between 3 and 161%. For flood irrigation, OpusCZ simulated runoff and pesticide mass with the highest accuracy, followed by RZWQM and PRZM, likely owning to its unique hydrological algorithm for runoff simulations during flood irrigation. Simulation results from cold model runs by OpusCZ and RZWQM using measured values for model inputs matched closely to the observed values. The MAPE ranged from 28 to 384 and 42 to 168% for OpusCZ and RZWQM, respectively. These satisfactory model outputs showed the models' abilities in mimicking reality. Theoretical evaluations indicated that OpusCZ and RZWQM use mechanistic approaches for hydrology simulation, output data on a subdaily time-step, and were able to simulate management practices and subsurface flow via tile drainage. In contrast, PRZM operates at daily time-step and simulates surface runoff using the USDA Soil Conservation Service's curve number method. Among the three models, OpusCZ and RZWQM were suitable for simulating pesticide runoff in semiarid areas where agriculture is heavily dependent on irrigation. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Robust Initial Wetness Condition Framework of an Event-Based Rainfall–Runoff Model Using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture

OpenAIRE

Wooyeon Sunwoo; Minha Choi

2017-01-01

Runoff prediction in limited-data areas is vital for hydrological applications, such as the design of infrastructure and flood defenses, runoff forecasting, and water management. Rainfall–runoff models may be useful for simulation of runoff generation, particularly event-based models, which offer a practical modeling scheme because of their simplicity. However, there is a need to reduce the uncertainties related to the estimation of the initial wetness condition (IWC) prior to a rainfall even...

The role of soil in the generation of urban runoff : development and evaluation of a 2D model

OpenAIRE

BERTHIER, E; ANDRIEU, H; CREUTIN, JD

2004-01-01

A two-dimensional numerical model is developed to determine the role of soil in the formation of urban catchment runoff. The model is based on a modeling unit, called the Urban Hydrological Element (UHE), which corresponds to the cross-section of an urban cadastral parcel. Water flow in the soil of a UHE is explicitly simulated with a finite element code for solving the Richards' equation. Two runoff components, dependent on soil behavior, are represented: runoff from natural surfaces and dra...

Simulating runoff under changing climatic conditions: Revisiting an apparent deficiency of conceptual rainfall-runoff models

Science.gov (United States)

Fowler, Keirnan J. A.; Peel, Murray C.; Western, Andrew W.; Zhang, Lu; Peterson, Tim J.

2016-03-01

Hydrologic models have potential to be useful tools in planning for future climate variability. However, recent literature suggests that the current generation of conceptual rainfall runoff models tend to underestimate the sensitivity of runoff to a given change in rainfall, leading to poor performance when evaluated over multiyear droughts. This research revisited this conclusion, investigating whether the observed poor performance could be due to insufficient model calibration and evaluation techniques. We applied an approach based on Pareto optimality to explore trade-offs between model performance in different climatic conditions. Five conceptual rainfall runoff model structures were tested in 86 catchments in Australia, for a total of 430 Pareto analyses. The Pareto results were then compared with results from a commonly used model calibration and evaluation method, the Differential Split Sample Test. We found that the latter often missed potentially promising parameter sets within a given model structure, giving a false negative impression of the capabilities of the model. This suggests that models may be more capable under changing climatic conditions than previously thought. Of the 282[347] cases of apparent model failure under the split sample test using the lower [higher] of two model performance criteria trialed, 155[120] were false negatives. We discuss potential causes of remaining model failures, including the role of data errors. Although the Pareto approach proved useful, our aim was not to suggest an alternative calibration strategy, but to critically assess existing methods of model calibration and evaluation. We recommend caution when interpreting split sample results.

Analyse on changes of runoff generation and confluence of the Luohe River

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yiming Si; Xiaowei Liu

2004-01-01

The change trend of water cycle factors such as rainfall, runoff and flood events etc. in the Luohe River basin are analysed based on hydrological data since 1950s. The analysis shows that rainfall has been decreasing, but not much, while runoff has been decreasing remarkably. Under the same rainfall conditions, runoff and peak discharge have dropped considerably, runoff coefficient has become much smaller, and the frequency of flood occurrence has been decreasing. It is considered that environmental variation caused by human activities accounts for the change, in characteristics of runoff generation and confluence in the basin.(Author)

Designing hybrid grass genomes to control runoff generation

Science.gov (United States)

MacLeod, C.; Binley, A.; Humphreys, M.; King, I. P.; O'Donovan, S.; Papadopoulos, A.; Turner, L. B.; Watts, C.; Whalley, W. R.; Haygarth, P.

2010-12-01

Sustainable management of water in landscapes requires balancing demands of agricultural production whilst moderating downstream effects like flooding. Pasture comprises 69% of global agricultural areas and is essential for producing food and fibre alongside environmental goods and services. Thus there is a need to breed forage grasses that deliver multiple benefits through increased levels of productivity whilst moderating fluxes of water. Here we show that a novel grass hybrid that combines the entire genomes of perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne - the grass of choice for Europe’s forage agriculture) and meadow fescue (Festuca pratensis) has a significant role in flood prevention. Field plot experiments established differences in runoff generation with the hybrid cultivar reducing runoff by 50% compared to perennial ryegrass cultivar, and by 35% compared to a meadow fescue cultivar (34 events over two years, replicated randomized-block design, statistically significant differences). This important research outcome was the result of a project that combined plant genetics, soil physics and plot scale hydrology to identify novel grass genotypes that can reduce runoff from grassland systems. Through a coordinated series of experiments examining effects from the gene to plot scale, we have identified that the rapid growth and then turnover of roots in the L. perenne x F. pratensis hybrid is likely to be a key mechanism in reducing runoff generation. More broadly this is an exciting first step to realizing the potential to design grass genomes to achieve both food production, and to deliver flood control, a key ecosystem service.

A glacier runoff extension to the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System

Science.gov (United States)

A. E. Van Beusekom; R. J. Viger

2016-01-01

A module to simulate glacier runoff, PRMSglacier, was added to PRMS (Precipitation Runoff Modeling System), a distributed-parameter, physical-process hydrological simulation code. The extension does not require extensive on-glacier measurements or computational expense but still relies on physical principles over empirical relations as much as is feasible while...

Erosivity, surface runoff, and soil erosion estimation using GIS-coupled runoff-erosion model in the Mamuaba catchment, Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Marques da Silva, Richarde; Guimarães Santos, Celso Augusto; Carneiro de Lima Silva, Valeriano; Pereira e Silva, Leonardo

2013-11-01

This study evaluates erosivity, surface runoff generation, and soil erosion rates for Mamuaba catchment, sub-catchment of Gramame River basin (Brazil) by using the ArcView Soil and Water Assessment Tool (AvSWAT) model. Calibration and validation of the model was performed on monthly basis, and it could simulate surface runoff and soil erosion to a good level of accuracy. Daily rainfall data between 1969 and 1989 from six rain gauges were used, and the monthly rainfall erosivity of each station was computed for all the studied years. In order to evaluate the calibration and validation of the model, monthly runoff data between January 1978 and April 1982 from one runoff gauge were used as well. The estimated soil loss rates were also realistic when compared to what can be observed in the field and to results from previous studies around of catchment. The long-term average soil loss was estimated at 9.4 t ha(-1) year(-1); most of the area of the catchment (60%) was predicted to suffer from a low- to moderate-erosion risk (soil erosion was estimated to exceed > 12 t ha(-1) year(-1). Expectedly, estimated soil loss was significantly correlated with measured rainfall and simulated surface runoff. Based on the estimated soil loss rates, the catchment was divided into four priority categories (low, moderate, high and very high) for conservation intervention. The study demonstrates that the AvSWAT model provides a useful tool for soil erosion assessment from catchments and facilitates the planning for a sustainable land management in northeastern Brazil.

An urban runoff model designed to inform stormwater management decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, Nicole G; Conley, Gary; Kanner, Lisa; Mathias, Margaret

2017-05-15

We present an urban runoff model designed for stormwater managers to quantify runoff reduction benefits of mitigation actions that has lower input data and user expertise requirements than most commonly used models. The stormwater tool to estimate load reductions (TELR) employs a semi-distributed approach, where landscape characteristics and process representation are spatially-lumped within urban catchments on the order of 100 acres (40 ha). Hydrologic computations use a set of metrics that describe a 30-year rainfall distribution, combined with well-tested algorithms for rainfall-runoff transformation and routing to generate average annual runoff estimates for each catchment. User inputs include the locations and specifications for a range of structural best management practice (BMP) types. The model was tested in a set of urban catchments within the Lake Tahoe Basin of California, USA, where modeled annual flows matched that of the observed flows within 18% relative error for 5 of the 6 catchments and had good regional performance for a suite of performance metrics. Comparisons with continuous simulation models showed an average of 3% difference from TELR predicted runoff for a range of hypothetical urban catchments. The model usually identified the dominant BMP outflow components within 5% relative error of event-based measured flow data and simulated the correct proportionality between outflow components. TELR has been implemented as a web-based platform for use by municipal stormwater managers to inform prioritization, report program benefits and meet regulatory reporting requirements (www.swtelr.com). Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Infiltration and runoff generation processes in fire-affected soils

Science.gov (United States)

Moody, John A.; Ebel, Brian A.

2014-01-01

Post-wildfire runoff was investigated by combining field measurements and modelling of infiltration into fire-affected soils to predict time-to-start of runoff and peak runoff rate at the plot scale (1 m2). Time series of soil-water content, rainfall and runoff were measured on a hillslope burned by the 2010 Fourmile Canyon Fire west of Boulder, Colorado during cyclonic and convective rainstorms in the spring and summer of 2011. Some of the field measurements and measured soil physical properties were used to calibrate a one-dimensional post-wildfire numerical model, which was then used as a ‘virtual instrument’ to provide estimates of the saturated hydraulic conductivity and high-resolution (1 mm) estimates of the soil-water profile and water fluxes within the unsaturated zone.Field and model estimates of the wetting-front depth indicated that post-wildfire infiltration was on average confined to shallow depths less than 30 mm. Model estimates of the effective saturated hydraulic conductivity, Ks, near the soil surface ranged from 0.1 to 5.2 mm h−1. Because of the relatively small values of Ks, the time-to-start of runoff (measured from the start of rainfall),  tp, was found to depend only on the initial soil-water saturation deficit (predicted by the model) and a measured characteristic of the rainfall profile (referred to as the average rainfall acceleration, equal to the initial rate of change in rainfall intensity). An analytical model was developed from the combined results and explained 92–97% of the variance of  tp, and the numerical infiltration model explained 74–91% of the variance of the peak runoff rates. These results are from one burned site, but they strongly suggest that  tp in fire-affected soils (which often have low values of Ks) is probably controlled more by the storm profile and the initial soil-water saturation deficit than by soil hydraulic properties.

Wildcat5 for Windows, a rainfall-runoff hydrograph model: user manual and documentation

Science.gov (United States)

R. H. Hawkins; A. Barreto-Munoz

2016-01-01

Wildcat5 for Windows (Wildcat5) is an interactive Windows Excel-based software package designed to assist watershed specialists in analyzing rainfall runoff events to predict peak flow and runoff volumes generated by single-event rainstorms for a variety of watershed soil and vegetation conditions. Model inputs are: (1) rainstorm characteristics, (2) parameters related...

Bayesian estimation of extreme flood quantiles using a rainfall-runoff model and a stochastic daily rainfall generator

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, Veber; Fernandes, Wilson

2017-11-01

Extreme flood estimation has been a key research topic in hydrological sciences. Reliable estimates of such events are necessary as structures for flood conveyance are continuously evolving in size and complexity and, as a result, their failure-associated hazards become more and more pronounced. Due to this fact, several estimation techniques intended to improve flood frequency analysis and reducing uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation have been addressed in the literature in the last decades. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework for the indirect estimation of extreme flood quantiles from rainfall-runoff models. In the proposed approach, an ensemble of long daily rainfall series is simulated with a stochastic generator, which models extreme rainfall amounts with an upper-bounded distribution function, namely, the 4-parameter lognormal model. The rationale behind the generation model is that physical limits for rainfall amounts, and consequently for floods, exist and, by imposing an appropriate upper bound for the probabilistic model, more plausible estimates can be obtained for those rainfall quantiles with very low exceedance probabilities. Daily rainfall time series are converted into streamflows by routing each realization of the synthetic ensemble through a conceptual hydrologic model, the Rio Grande rainfall-runoff model. Calibration of parameters is performed through a nonlinear regression model, by means of the specification of a statistical model for the residuals that is able to accommodate autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and nonnormality. By combining the outlined steps in a Bayesian structure of analysis, one is able to properly summarize the resulting uncertainty and estimating more accurate credible intervals for a set of flood quantiles of interest. The method for extreme flood indirect estimation was applied to the American river catchment, at the Folsom dam, in the state of California, USA. Results show that most floods

MODELING OF STORM WATER RUNOFF FROM GREEN ROOFS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ewa Burszta-Adamiak

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Apart from direct measurements, modelling of runoff from green roofs is valuable source of information about effectiveness of this type of structure from hydrological point of view. Among different type of models, the most frequently used are numerical models. They allow to assess the impact of green roofs on decrease and attenuation of runoff, reduction of peak runoff and value of water retention. This paper presents preliminary results of research on computing the rate of runoff from green roofs using GARDENIA model. The analysis has been carried out for selected rainfall events registered during measuring campaign on pilot-scale green roofs. Obtained results are promising and show good fit between observed and simulated runoff.

Distributed physically-based precipitation-runoff models for continuous simulation of daily runoff in the Columbia River Basin, British Columbia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chin, W.Q.; Salmon, G.M.; Luo, W.

1997-01-01

The need to accurately forecast precipitation and water runoff is essential to the operations of hydroelectric power plants. In 1993, BC Hydro established a program to develop, test and improve new and existing atmospheric and hydrologic models that would be suitable for application over the mountainous terrain of British Columbia. The objective was to improve the reliability and accuracy of hydrological models that simulate and forecast precipitation and runoff. Another objective was to develop a modelling system for hydrologic risk assessment in dam safety evaluation. This paper describes progress made in implementing timely measures to resolve problems of reservoir operation in balancing the need for generation of hydroelectric power with conflicting requirements for flood control, fisheries, recreation and other environmental concerns. 23 refs., 11 figs

Modeling relationship between runoff and soil properties in dry-farming lands, NW Iran

OpenAIRE

Vaezi, A. R.; Bahrami, H. A.; Sadeghi, S. H. R.; Mahdian, M. H.

2010-01-01

The process of transformation of rainfall into runoff over a catchment is very complex and exhibits both temporal and spatial variability. However, in a semi-arid area this variability is mainly controlled by the physical and chemical properties of the soil surface. Developing an accurate and easily-used model that can appropriately determine the runoff generation value is of strong demand. In this study a simple, an empirically based model developed to explore effect of soil properties on ru...

Exploiting Soil Moisture, Precipitation, and Streamflow Observations to Evaluate Soil Moisture/Runoff Coupling in Land Surface Models

Science.gov (United States)

Crow, W. T.; Chen, F.; Reichle, R. H.; Xia, Y.; Liu, Q.

2018-05-01

Accurate partitioning of precipitation into infiltration and runoff is a fundamental objective of land surface models tasked with characterizing the surface water and energy balance. Temporal variability in this partitioning is due, in part, to changes in prestorm soil moisture, which determine soil infiltration capacity and unsaturated storage. Utilizing the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Soil Moisture Active Passive Level-4 soil moisture product in combination with streamflow and precipitation observations, we demonstrate that land surface models (LSMs) generally underestimate the strength of the positive rank correlation between prestorm soil moisture and event runoff coefficients (i.e., the fraction of rainfall accumulation volume converted into stormflow runoff during a storm event). Underestimation is largest for LSMs employing an infiltration-excess approach for stormflow runoff generation. More accurate coupling strength is found in LSMs that explicitly represent subsurface stormflow or saturation-excess runoff generation processes.

Multi-linear model of transformation of runoff in river-basins

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szolgay, J.; Kubes, R.

2005-01-01

The component part of atmospheric precipitations-runoff model of Hron River is a individual model of transformation of flows in river network, too, which transforms runoff from separate partial catchment basin into terminal profile. This component of precipitations-runoff model can also be used as individual hydrologic transformation model of runoff waves in river-basin. Identification and calibration of this model is realised independently on precipitations-runoff model of Hron River, which is described in this chapter in detail.

APPLICATION OF GIS IN MODELING ZILBERCHAI BASIN RUNOFF

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Malekani

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Runoff is one of most important hydrological variables that are used in many civil works, planning for optimal use of reservoirs, organizing rivers and warning flood. The runoff curve number (CN is a key factor in determining runoff in the SCS (Soil Conservation Service based hydrologic modeling method. The traditional SCS-CN method for calculating the composite curve number consumes a major portion of the hydrologic modeling time. Therefore, geographic information systems (GIS are now being used in combination with the SCS-CN method. This work uses a methodology of determining surface runoff by Geographic Information System model and applying SCS-CN method that needs the necessary parameters such as land use map, hydrologic soil groups, rainfall data, DEM, physiographic characteristic of the basin. The model is built by implementing some well known hydrologic methods in GIS like as ArcHydro, ArcCN-Runoff for modeling of Zilberchai basin runoff. The results show that the high average weighted of curve number indicate that permeability of the basin is low and therefore likelihood of flooding is high. So the fundamental works is essential in order to increase water infiltration in Zilberchai basin and to avoid wasting surface water resources. Also comparing the results of the computed and observed runoff value show that use of GIS tools in addition to accelerate the calculation of the runoff also increase the accuracy of the results. This paper clearly demonstrates that the integration of GIS with the SCS-CN method provides a powerful tool for estimating runoff volumes in large basins.

Application of GIS in Modeling Zilberchai Basin Runoff

Science.gov (United States)

Malekani, L.; Khaleghi, S.; Mahmoodi, M.

2014-10-01

Runoff is one of most important hydrological variables that are used in many civil works, planning for optimal use of reservoirs, organizing rivers and warning flood. The runoff curve number (CN) is a key factor in determining runoff in the SCS (Soil Conservation Service) based hydrologic modeling method. The traditional SCS-CN method for calculating the composite curve number consumes a major portion of the hydrologic modeling time. Therefore, geographic information systems (GIS) are now being used in combination with the SCS-CN method. This work uses a methodology of determining surface runoff by Geographic Information System model and applying SCS-CN method that needs the necessary parameters such as land use map, hydrologic soil groups, rainfall data, DEM, physiographic characteristic of the basin. The model is built by implementing some well known hydrologic methods in GIS like as ArcHydro, ArcCN-Runoff for modeling of Zilberchai basin runoff. The results show that the high average weighted of curve number indicate that permeability of the basin is low and therefore likelihood of flooding is high. So the fundamental works is essential in order to increase water infiltration in Zilberchai basin and to avoid wasting surface water resources. Also comparing the results of the computed and observed runoff value show that use of GIS tools in addition to accelerate the calculation of the runoff also increase the accuracy of the results. This paper clearly demonstrates that the integration of GIS with the SCS-CN method provides a powerful tool for estimating runoff volumes in large basins.

Assessment of runoff contributing catchment areas in rainfall runoff modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren; Johansen, C.; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

2006-01-01

In numerical modelling of rainfall caused runoff in urban sewer systems an essential parameter is the hydrological reduction factor which defines the percentage of the impervious area contributing to the surface flow towards the sewer. As the hydrological processes during a rainfall are difficult...... to determine with significant precision the hydrological reduction factor is implemented to account all hydrological losses except the initial loss. This paper presents an inconsistency between calculations of the hydrological reduction factor, based on measurements of rainfall and runoff, and till now...... recommended literature values for residential areas. It is proven by comparing rainfall-runoff measurements from four different residential catchments that the literature values of the hydrological reduction factor are over-estimated for this type of catchment. In addition, different catchment descriptions...

A simple rainfall-runoff model based on hydrological units applied to the Teba catchment (south-east Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Donker, N. H. W.

2001-01-01

A hydrological model (YWB, yearly water balance) has been developed to model the daily rainfall-runoff relationship of the 202 km2 Teba river catchment, located in semi-arid south-eastern Spain. The period of available data (1976-1993) includes some very rainy years with intensive storms (responsible for flooding parts of the town of Malaga) and also some very dry years.The YWB model is in essence a simple tank model in which the catchment is subdivided into a limited number of meaningful hydrological units. Instead of generating per unit surface runoff resulting from infiltration excess, runoff has been made the result of storage excess. Actual evapotranspiration is obtained by means of curves, included in the software, representing the relationship between the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration as a function of soil moisture content for three soil texture classes.The total runoff generated is split between base flow and surface runoff according to a given baseflow index. The two components are routed separately and subsequently joined. A large number of sequential years can be processed, and the results of each year are summarized by a water balance table and a daily based rainfall runoff time series. An attempt has been made to restrict the amount of input data to the minimum.Interactive manual calibration is advocated in order to allow better incorporation of field evidence and the experience of the model user. Field observations allowed for an approximate calibration at the hydrological unit level.

Modeling rainfall-runoff relationship using multivariate GARCH model

Science.gov (United States)

Modarres, R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

2013-08-01

The traditional hydrologic time series approaches are used for modeling, simulating and forecasting conditional mean of hydrologic variables but neglect their time varying variance or the second order moment. This paper introduces the multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) modeling approach to show how the variance-covariance relationship between hydrologic variables varies in time. These approaches are also useful to estimate the dynamic conditional correlation between hydrologic variables. To illustrate the novelty and usefulness of MGARCH models in hydrology, two major types of MGARCH models, the bivariate diagonal VECH and constant conditional correlation (CCC) models are applied to show the variance-covariance structure and cdynamic correlation in a rainfall-runoff process. The bivariate diagonal VECH-GARCH(1,1) and CCC-GARCH(1,1) models indicated both short-run and long-run persistency in the conditional variance-covariance matrix of the rainfall-runoff process. The conditional variance of rainfall appears to have a stronger persistency, especially long-run persistency, than the conditional variance of streamflow which shows a short-lived drastic increasing pattern and a stronger short-run persistency. The conditional covariance and conditional correlation coefficients have different features for each bivariate rainfall-runoff process with different degrees of stationarity and dynamic nonlinearity. The spatial and temporal pattern of variance-covariance features may reflect the signature of different physical and hydrological variables such as drainage area, topography, soil moisture and ground water fluctuations on the strength, stationarity and nonlinearity of the conditional variance-covariance for a rainfall-runoff process.

Runoff and soil loss from bench terraces. 1. An event-based model of rainfall infiltration and surface runoff.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Dijk, A.I.J.M.; Bruijnzeel, L.A.

2004-01-01

Overland flow resulting from an excess of rain over infiltration is an essential component of many models of runoff and erosion from fields or catchments. The spatially variable infiltration (SVI) model and a set of associated equations relating depth of runoff and maximum rate of 'effective' runoff

Operational applications of a process-based runoff generation module on the Swiss Plateau and Prealps

Science.gov (United States)

Horat, Christoph; Antonetti, Manuel; Wernli, Heini; Zappa, Massimiliano

2017-04-01

Flash floods evolve rapidly during and after heavy precipitation events and represent a risk for society, especially in mountainous areas. Knowledge on meteorological variables and their temporal development is often not sufficient to predict their occurrence. Therefore, information about the state of the hydrological system derived from hydrological models is used. These models rely however on strong simplifying assumptions and need therefore to be calibrated. This prevents their application on catchments, where no runoff data is available. Here we present a flash-flood forecasting chain including: (i) a nowcasting product which combines radar and rain gauge rainfall data (CombiPrecip), (ii) meteorological data from numerical weather prediction models at currently finest available resolution (COSMO-1, COSMO-E), (iii) operationally available soil moisture estimations from the PREVAH hydrological model, and (iv) a process-based runoff generation module with no need for calibration (RGM-PRO). This last component uses information on the spatial distribution of dominant runoff processes (DRPs) which can be derived with different mapping approaches, and is parameterised a priori based on expert knowledge. First, we compared the performance of RGM-PRO with the one of a traditional conceptual runoff generation module for several events on Swiss Emme catchment, as well as on their nested catchments. Different DRP-maps are furthermore tested to evaluate the sensitivity of the forecasting chain to the mapping approaches. Then, we benchmarked the new forecasting chain with the traditional chain used on the Swiss Verzasca catchment. The results show that RGM-PRO performs similarly or even better than the traditional calibrated conceptual module on the investigated catchments. The use of strongly simplified DRP mapping approaches still leads to satisfying results, due mainly to the fact that the largest uncertainty source is represented by the meteorological input data. On the

Spatiotemporal impacts of LULC changes on hydrology from the perspective of runoff generation mechanism using SWAT model with evolving parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Y.; Chang, J.; Luo, L.

2017-12-01

It is of great importance for water resources management to model the truly hydrological process under changing environment, especially under significant changes of underlying surfaces like the Wei River Bain (WRB) where the subsurface hydrology is highly influenced by human activities, and to systematically investigate the interactions among LULC change, streamflow variation and changes in runoff generation process. Therefore, we proposed the idea of evolving parameters in hydrological model (SWAT) to reflect the changes in physical environment with different LULC conditions. Then with these evolving parameters, the spatiotemporal impacts of LULC changes on streamflow were quantified, and qualitative analysis was conducted to further explore how LULC changes affect the streamflow from the perspective of runoff generation mechanism. Results indicate the following: 1) evolving parameter calibration is not only effective but necessary to ensure the validity of the model when dealing with significant changes in underlying surfaces due to human activities. 2) compared to the baseline period, the streamflow in wet seasons increased in the 1990s but decreased in the 2000s. While at yearly and dry seasonal scales, the streamflow decreased in both two decades; 3) the expansion of cropland is the major contributor to the reduction of surface water component, thus causing the decline in streamflow at yearly and dry seasonal scales. While compared to the 1990s, the expansions of woodland in the middle stream and grassland in the downstream are the main stressors that increased the soil water component, thus leading to the more decline of the streamflow in the 2000s.

Runoff generation and routing on artificial slopes in a Mediterranean-continental environment: the Teruel coalfield, Spain

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nicolau, J.M. [Universidad de Alcala de Henares, Alcala de Henares (Spain)

2002-07-01

The aim of the study was to identify the mechanisms of runoff generation and routing and their controlling factors at the hillslope scale, on artificial slopes derived from surface coal mining reclamation in a Mediterranean-continental area. Rainfall and runoff at interrill and microcatchment scales were recorded for a year on two slopes with different substrata: topsoil cover and overburden cover. Runoff coefficient and runoff routing from interrill areas to microcatchment outlets were higher in the overburden substratum than in topsoil, and greater in the most developed rill network. Rainfall volume is the major parameter responsible for runoff response on overburden, suggesting that this substratum is very impermeable - at least during the main rainfall periods of the year (late spring and autumn) when the soil surface is sealed. In such conditions, most rainfall input is converted into runoff, regardless of its intensity. Results from artificial rainfall experiments, conducted 3 and 7 years after seeding, confirm the low infiltration capacity of overburden when sealed. The hydrological response shows great seasonal variability on the overburden slope in accordance with soil surface changes over the year. Rainfall volume and intensities explain runoff at the inter-rill scale on the topsoil slope, where rainfall experiments demonstrated a typical Hortonian infiltration curve. However, no correlation was found at the microcatchment level, probably because of the loss of functionality of the only rill as ecological succession proceeded. The runoff generation mechanism on the topsoil slope is more homogeneous throughout the year. The dense rill networks of the overburden slope guarantee very effective runoff drainage, regardless of rainfall magnitude. Runoff generation and routing on topsoil slopes are controlled by grass cover and soil moisture content, whereas on overburden slopes rill network density and soil moisture content are the main controlling factors.

Rainfall-runoff and hydraulic modelling integration in the Blatina River

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Timko, J.

2017-01-01

This paper investigates the use and integration of rainfall-runoff modelling and hydrologic modelling of Blatina river catchment. Characteristics of physical-geographical sphere and its components were created within the model, enhancing the robustness of input data for the mathematical modelling of landscape runoff. Rainfall-runoff model HEC-HMS utilised in this research allows using a wide range of methodologies to determine the movement of water in the riverbed, water losses in the basin, hydraulic and hydrological methods of transformation and base-flow. Loss and transformation of water in the basin were modeled with curve numbers method SCS-CN. The simulated hydrograph was calibrated using rainfall-runoff event from June 2009. The same event was also modelled after the deforestation of the focus area. Using hydraulic model MIKE 21, a flood of focus rainfall-runoff area was simulated under both current real and changed land cover scenarios. (authors)

Climatic Models Ensemble-based Mid-21st Century Runoff Projections: A Bayesian Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Achieng, K. O.; Zhu, J.

2017-12-01

There are a number of North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climatic models that have been used to project surface runoff in the mid-21st century. Statistical model selection techniques are often used to select the model that best fits data. However, model selection techniques often lead to different conclusions. In this study, ten models are averaged in Bayesian paradigm to project runoff. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is used to project and identify effect of model uncertainty on future runoff projections. Baseflow separation - a two-digital filter which is also called Eckhardt filter - is used to separate USGS streamflow (total runoff) into two components: baseflow and surface runoff. We use this surface runoff as the a priori runoff when conducting BMA of runoff simulated from the ten RCM models. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate how well RCM multi-model ensembles simulate surface runoff, in a Bayesian framework. Specifically, we investigate and discuss the following questions: How well do ten RCM models ensemble jointly simulate surface runoff by averaging over all the models using BMA, given a priori surface runoff? What are the effects of model uncertainty on surface runoff simulation?

Inverse modeling of hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in the Community Land Model

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Y.; Hou, Z.; Huang, M.; Tian, F.; Leung, L. Ruby

2013-12-01

This study demonstrates the possibility of inverting hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). Previous studies showed that surface flux and runoff calculations are sensitive to major hydrologic parameters in CLM4 over different watersheds, and illustrated the necessity and possibility of parameter calibration. Both deterministic least-square fitting and stochastic Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Bayesian inversion approaches are evaluated by applying them to CLM4 at selected sites with different climate and soil conditions. The unknowns to be estimated include surface and subsurface runoff generation parameters and vadose zone soil water parameters. We find that using model parameters calibrated by the sampling-based stochastic inversion approaches provides significant improvements in the model simulations compared to using default CLM4 parameter values, and that as more information comes in, the predictive intervals (ranges of posterior distributions) of the calibrated parameters become narrower. In general, parameters that are identified to be significant through sensitivity analyses and statistical tests are better calibrated than those with weak or nonlinear impacts on flux or runoff observations. Temporal resolution of observations has larger impacts on the results of inverse modeling using heat flux data than runoff data. Soil and vegetation cover have important impacts on parameter sensitivities, leading to different patterns of posterior distributions of parameters at different sites. Overall, the MCMC-Bayesian inversion approach effectively and reliably improves the simulation of CLM under different climates and environmental conditions. Bayesian model averaging of the posterior estimates with different reference acceptance probabilities can smooth the posterior distribution and provide more reliable parameter estimates, but at the expense of wider uncertainty bounds.

Estimating runoff from ungauged catchments for reservoir water ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The Lower Middle Zambezi Basin is sandwiched between three hydropower ... This study applied a rainfall-runoff model (HEC-HMS) and GIS techniques to ... Missing data were generated using the mean value infilling method. ... A hydrological model, HEC- HMS, was used to simulate runoff from the ungauged catchments.

Short review of runoff and erosion physically based models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabrić Ognjen

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Processes of runoff and erosion are one of the main research subjects in hydrological science. Based on the field and laboratory measurements, and analogous with development of computational techniques, runoff and erosion models based on equations which describe the physics of the process are also developed. Several models of runoff and erosion which describes entire process of genesis and sediment transport on the catchment are described and compared.

Assessing basin heterogeneities for rainfall–runoff modelling of the Okavango River and its transboundary management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Baumberg

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The neighbouring river systems Cubango and Cuito drain the southeastern part of the Angolan Highlands and form the Okavango River after their confluence, thus providing 95% of the Okavango River discharge. Although they are characterised by similar environmental conditions, runoff records indicate remarkable differences regarding the hydrological dynamics. The Cubango River is known for rapid discharges with high peaks and low baseflow whereas the Cuito runoff appears more balanced. These differences are mainly caused by heterogeneous geological conditions or terrain features. The Cubango headwaters are dominated by crystalline bedrock and steeper, v-shaped valleys while the Cuito system is characterised by wide, swampy valleys and thick sand layers, thus attenuating runoff. This study presents model exercises which have been performed to assess and quantify these effects by applying the distributive model J2000g for each sub-basin. The models provide reasonable results representing the spatio-temporal runoff pattern, although some peaks are over- or underestimated, particularly in the Cuito catchment. This is explained by the scarce information on extent and structure of storages, such as aquifers or swamps, in the Cuito system. However, the model results aid understanding of the differences of both tributaries in runoff generation and underpin the importance of floodplains regarding the control of runoff peaks and low flows in the Cuito system. Model exercises reveal that basin heterogeneity needs to be taken into account and must be parameterised appropriately for reliable modelling and assessment of the entire Okavango River basin for managing the water resources of the transboundary Okavango River in a harmonious way.

Calibration and verification of numerical runoff and erosion model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabrić Ognjen

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Based on the field and laboratory measurements, and analogous with development of computational techniques, runoff and erosion models based on equations which describe the physics of the process are also developed. Based on the KINEROS2 model, this paper presents basic modelling principles of runoff and erosion processes based on the St. Venant's equations. Alternative equations for friction calculation, calculation of source and deposition elements and transport capacity are also shown. Numerical models based on original and alternative equations are calibrated and verified on laboratory scale model. According to the results, friction calculation based on the analytic solution of laminar flow must be included in all runoff and erosion models.

Modeling rainfall-runoff process using soft computing techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Kisi, Ozgur; Shiri, Jalal; Tombul, Mustafa

2013-02-01

Rainfall-runoff process was modeled for a small catchment in Turkey, using 4 years (1987-1991) of measurements of independent variables of rainfall and runoff values. The models used in the study were Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Gene Expression Programming (GEP) which are Artificial Intelligence (AI) approaches. The applied models were trained and tested using various combinations of the independent variables. The goodness of fit for the model was evaluated in terms of the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of efficiency (CE) and scatter index (SI). A comparison was also made between these models and traditional Multi Linear Regression (MLR) model. The study provides evidence that GEP (with RMSE=17.82 l/s, MAE=6.61 l/s, CE=0.72 and R2=0.978) is capable of modeling rainfall-runoff process and is a viable alternative to other applied artificial intelligence and MLR time-series methods.

Analysis of the runoff generation mechanism for the investigation of the SCS-CN method applicability to a partial area experimental watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Soulis, K. X.; Valiantzas, J. D.; Dercas, N.; Londra, P. A.

2009-01-01

The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method is widely used for predicting direct runoff volume for a given rainfall event. The applicability of the SCS-CN method and the runoff generation mechanism were thoroughly analysed in a Mediterranean experimental watershed in Greece. The region is characterized by a Mediterranean semi-arid climate. A detailed land cover and soil survey using remote sensing and GIS techniques, showed that the watershed is dominated by coarse soils with high hydraulic conductivities, whereas a smaller part is covered with medium textured soils and impervious surfaces. The analysis indicated that the SCS-CN method fails to predict runoff for the storm events studied, and that there is a strong correlation between the CN values obtained from measured runoff and the rainfall depth. The hypothesis that this correlation could be attributed to the existence of an impermeable part in a very permeable watershed was examined in depth, by developing a numerical simulation water flow model for predicting surface runoff generated from each of the three soil types of the watershed. Numerical runs were performed using the HYDRUS-1D code. The results support the validity of this hypothesis for most of the events examined where the linear runoff formula provides better results than the SCS-CN method. The runoff coefficient of this formula can be taken equal to the percentage of the impervious area. However, the linear formula should be applied with caution in case of extreme events with very high rainfall intensities. In this case, the medium textured soils may significantly contribute to the total runoff and the linear formula may significantly underestimate the runoff produced.

The Idiosyncrasies of Storage and Implications for Catchment Runoff (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Spence, C.

2010-12-01

Because water goes into storage when it rains, perhaps the entire concept of a direct rainfall-runoff process is erroneous and misleading. Perhaps the runoff generation process is merely the conversion of storage to runoff. Using this perspective as a foundation, it then becomes important to understand how catchments retain water, where this storage is distributed and what controls the distribution of this storage. There is a growing body of observational evidence that the idiosyncrasies of storage in the catchment are crucial for runoff generation. These idiosyncrasies are important enough that some hydrologists are questioning assumptions of steady state, linearity, and topographic control in existing theories and algorithms of runoff generation. For instance, thresholds that control the release of water have been identified at many scales and in many landscapes. Hysteresis in storage-runoff relationships at all scales manifest because of these thresholds. Because storage thresholds at a range of scales are now known to be important for runoff response, connectivity has become an important concept crucial to interpreting catchment runoff response. There appears to be growing acceptance of such ideas as thresholds, hysteresis and connectivity in the hydrological literature. Theoretical development and model parameterization have begun, but there remains much work to resolve these field observations. In particular, our community should strive to investigate the relevance of storage-runoff relationships partly through innovative measurement techniques and the development of model structures appropriate for the requisite testing of these theories in a diversity of landscapes.

Modeling of the Monthly Rainfall-Runoff Process Through Regressions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Campos-Aranda Daniel Francisco

2014-10-01

Full Text Available To solve the problems associated with the assessment of water resources of a river, the modeling of the rainfall-runoff process (RRP allows the deduction of runoff missing data and to extend its record, since generally the information available on precipitation is larger. It also enables the estimation of inputs to reservoirs, when their building led to the suppression of the gauging station. The simplest mathematical model that can be set for the RRP is the linear regression or curve on a monthly basis. Such a model is described in detail and is calibrated with the simultaneous record of monthly rainfall and runoff in Ballesmi hydrometric station, which covers 35 years. Since the runoff of this station has an important contribution from the spring discharge, the record is corrected first by removing that contribution. In order to do this a procedure was developed based either on the monthly average regional runoff coefficients or on nearby and similar watershed; in this case the Tancuilín gauging station was used. Both stations belong to the Partial Hydrologic Region No. 26 (Lower Rio Panuco and are located within the state of San Luis Potosi, México. The study performed indicates that the monthly regression model, due to its conceptual approach, faithfully reproduces monthly average runoff volumes and achieves an excellent approximation in relation to the dispersion, proved by calculation of the means and standard deviations.

Development of a transient, lumped hydrologic model for geomorphologic units in a geomorphology based rainfall-runoff modelling framework

Science.gov (United States)

Vannametee, E.; Karssenberg, D.; Hendriks, M. R.; de Jong, S. M.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2010-05-01

We propose a modelling framework for distributed hydrological modelling of 103-105 km2 catchments by discretizing the catchment in geomorphologic units. Each of these units is modelled using a lumped model representative for the processes in the unit. Here, we focus on the development and parameterization of this lumped model as a component of our framework. The development of the lumped model requires rainfall-runoff data for an extensive set of geomorphological units. Because such large observational data sets do not exist, we create artificial data. With a high-resolution, physically-based, rainfall-runoff model, we create artificial rainfall events and resulting hydrographs for an extensive set of different geomorphological units. This data set is used to identify the lumped model of geomorphologic units. The advantage of this approach is that it results in a lumped model with a physical basis, with representative parameters that can be derived from point-scale measurable physical parameters. The approach starts with the development of the high-resolution rainfall-runoff model that generates an artificial discharge dataset from rainfall inputs as a surrogate of a real-world dataset. The model is run for approximately 105 scenarios that describe different characteristics of rainfall, properties of the geomorphologic units (i.e. slope gradient, unit length and regolith properties), antecedent moisture conditions and flow patterns. For each scenario-run, the results of the high-resolution model (i.e. runoff and state variables) at selected simulation time steps are stored in a database. The second step is to develop the lumped model of a geomorphological unit. This forward model consists of a set of simple equations that calculate Hortonian runoff and state variables of the geomorphologic unit over time. The lumped model contains only three parameters: a ponding factor, a linear reservoir parameter, and a lag time. The model is capable of giving an appropriate

A coupled weather generator - rainfall-runoff approach on hourly time steps for flood risk analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Winter, Benjamin; Schneeberger, Klaus; Dung Nguyen, Viet; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Huttenlau, Matthias; Merz, Bruno; Stötter, Johann

2017-04-01

The evaluation of potential monetary damage of flooding is an essential part of flood risk management. One possibility to estimate the monetary risk is to analyze long time series of observed flood events and their corresponding damages. In reality, however, only few flood events are documented. This limitation can be overcome by the generation of a set of synthetic, physically and spatial plausible flood events and subsequently the estimation of the resulting monetary damages. In the present work, a set of synthetic flood events is generated by a continuous rainfall-runoff simulation in combination with a coupled weather generator and temporal disaggregation procedure for the study area of Vorarlberg (Austria). Most flood risk studies focus on daily time steps, however, the mesoscale alpine study area is characterized by short concentration times, leading to large differences between daily mean and daily maximum discharge. Accordingly, an hourly time step is needed for the simulations. The hourly metrological input for the rainfall-runoff model is generated in a two-step approach. A synthetic daily dataset is generated by a multivariate and multisite weather generator and subsequently disaggregated to hourly time steps with a k-Nearest-Neighbor model. Following the event generation procedure, the negative consequences of flooding are analyzed. The corresponding flood damage for each synthetic event is estimated by combining the synthetic discharge at representative points of the river network with a loss probability relation for each community in the study area. The loss probability relation is based on exposure and susceptibility analyses on a single object basis (residential buildings) for certain return periods. For these impact analyses official inundation maps of the study area are used. Finally, by analyzing the total event time series of damages, the expected annual damage or losses associated with a certain probability of occurrence can be estimated for

Prediction and optimization of runoff via ANFIS and GA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D.K. Ghose

2013-06-01

Full Text Available In planning of water resource projects, the estimation of the availability of water plays an important role. The first step in the water availability estimation is the computation of runoff resulting from the precipitation on river catchments. The length of the runoff measured in a stream may be of short period or long period depending upon the catchment characteristics. Keeping this in mind the present work is focused on two different model generation. In the first phase of this study, runoff rating curves are developed considering present day water level (H(t as input and present day runoff (Q(t as the model output. In the second phase of the study runoff prediction models are developed considering 1 day lag water level (H(t − 1, 2 day lag water level (H(t − 2 and 1 day lag runoff (Q(t − 1 as inputs and 1 day ahead runoff (Q(t + 1 as the output of the model. Models developed and used for prediction of runoff are Non-Linear Multiple Regression (NLMR and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS. Both the models were trained and tested to predict the performance of models. Genetic Algorithm (GA is then coupled with NLMR model to obtain the condition of hydrological parameter for which the runoff is maximum.

Land Cover Influence on Wet Season Storm Runoff Generation and Hydrologic Flowpaths in Central Panama

Science.gov (United States)

Birch, A. L.; Stallard, R. F.; Barnard, H. R.

2017-12-01

While relationships between land use/land cover and hydrology are well studied and understood in temperate parts of the world, little research exists in the humid tropics, where hydrologic research is often decades behind. Specifically, quantitative information on how physical and biological differences across varying land covers influence runoff generation and hydrologic flowpaths in the humid tropics is scarce; frequently leading to poorly informed hydrologic modelling and water policy decision making. This research effort seeks to quantify how tropical land cover change may alter physical hydrologic processes in the economically important Panama Canal Watershed (Republic of Panama) by separating streamflow into its different runoff components using end member mixing analysis. The samples collected for this project come from small headwater catchments of four varying land covers (mature tropical forest, young secondary forest, active pasture, recently clear-cut tropical forest) within the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute's Agua Salud Project. During the past three years, samples have been collected at the four study catchments from streamflow and from a number of water sources within hillslope transects, and have been analyzed for stable water isotopes, major cations, and major anions. Major ion analysis of these samples has shown distinct geochemical differences for the potential runoff generating end members sampled (soil moisture/ preferential flow, groundwater, overland flow, throughfall, and precipitation). Based on this finding, an effort was made from May-August 2017 to intensively sample streamflow during wet season storm events, yielding a total of 5 events of varying intensity in each land cover/catchment, with sampling intensity ranging from sub-hourly to sub-daily. The focus of this poster presentation will be to present the result of hydrograph separation's done using end member mixing analysis from this May-August 2017 storm dataset. Expected

Rainfall-runoff modeling in the Turkey River using numerical and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Modeling rainfall-runoff relationships in a watershed have an important role in water resources engineering. Researchers have used numerical models for modeling rainfall-runoff ... Also, by using SPSS software, the regression equations were developed and then the best equation was selected from regression analysis.

Selection of an appropriately simple storm runoff model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. I. J. M. van Dijk

2010-03-01

Full Text Available An appropriately simple event runoff model for catchment hydrological studies was derived. The model was selected from several variants as having the optimum balance between simplicity and the ability to explain daily observations of streamflow from 260 Australian catchments (23–1902 km². Event rainfall and runoff were estimated from the observations through a combination of baseflow separation and storm flow recession analysis, producing a storm flow recession coefficient (k_QF. Various model structures with up to six free parameters were investigated, covering most of the equations applied in existing lumped catchment models. The performance of alternative structures and free parameters were expressed in Aikake's Final Prediction Error Criterion (FPEC and corresponding Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiencies (NSME for event runoff totals. For each model variant, the number of free parameters was reduced in steps based on calculated parameter sensitivity. The resulting optimal model structure had two or three free parameters; the first describing the non-linear relationship between event rainfall and runoff (S_max, the second relating runoff to antecedent groundwater storage (C_Sg, and a third that described initial rainfall losses (L_i, but which could be set at 8 mm without affecting model performance too much. The best three parameter model produced a median NSME of 0.64 and outperformed, for example, the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number technique (median NSME 0.30–0.41. Parameter estimation in ungauged catchments is likely to be challenging: 64% of the variance in k_QF among stations could be explained by catchment climate indicators and spatial correlation, but corresponding numbers were a modest 45% for C_Sg, 21% for S_max and none for L_i, respectively. In gauged catchments, better

Runoff erosion

OpenAIRE

Evelpidou, Niki (Ed.); Cordier, Stephane (Ed.); Merino, Agustin (Ed.); Figueiredo, Tomás de (Ed.); Centeri, Csaba (Ed.)

2013-01-01

Table of Contents PART I – THEORY OF RUNOFF EROSION CHAPTER 1 - RUNOFF EROSION – THE MECHANISMS CHAPTER 2 - LARGE SCALE APPROACHES OF RUNOFF EROSION CHAPTER 3 - MEASURING PRESENT RUNOFF EROSION CHAPTER 4 - MODELLING RUNOFF EROSION CHAPTER 5 - RUNOFF EROSION AND HUMAN SOCIETIES: THE INFLUENCE OF LAND USE AND MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ON SOIL EROSION PART II - CASE STUDIES CASE STUDIES – INTRODUCTION: RUNOFF EROSION IN MEDITERRANEAN AREA CASE STUDY 1: Soil Erosion Risk...

Investigation of the direct runoff generation mechanism for the analysis of the SCS-CN method applicability to a partial area experimental watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Soulis, K. X.; Valiantzas, J. D.; Dercas, N.; Londra, P. A.

2009-05-01

The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method is widely used for predicting direct runoff volume for a given rainfall event. The applicability of the SCS-CN method and the direct runoff generation mechanism were thoroughly analysed in a Mediterranean experimental watershed in Greece. The region is characterized by a Mediterranean semi-arid climate. A detailed land cover and soil survey using remote sensing and GIS techniques, showed that the watershed is dominated by coarse soils with high hydraulic conductivities, whereas a smaller part is covered with medium textured soils and impervious surfaces. The analysis indicated that the SCS-CN method fails to predict runoff for the storm events studied, and that there is a strong correlation between the CN values obtained from measured runoff and the rainfall depth. The hypothesis that this correlation could be attributed to the existence of an impermeable part in a very permeable watershed was examined in depth, by developing a numerical simulation water flow model for predicting surface runoff generated from each of the three soil types of the watershed. Numerical runs were performed using the HYDRUS-1D code. The results support the validity of this hypothesis for most of the events examined where the linear runoff formula provides better results than the SCS-CN method. The runoff coefficient of this formula can be taken equal to the percentage of the impervious area. However, the linear formula should be applied with caution in case of extreme events with very high rainfall intensities. In this case, the medium textured soils may significantly contribute to the total runoff and the linear formula may significantly underestimate the runoff produced.

Investigation of the direct runoff generation mechanism for the analysis of the SCS-CN method applicability to a partial area experimental watershed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. X. Soulis

2009-05-01

Full Text Available The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN method is widely used for predicting direct runoff volume for a given rainfall event. The applicability of the SCS-CN method and the direct runoff generation mechanism were thoroughly analysed in a Mediterranean experimental watershed in Greece. The region is characterized by a Mediterranean semi-arid climate. A detailed land cover and soil survey using remote sensing and GIS techniques, showed that the watershed is dominated by coarse soils with high hydraulic conductivities, whereas a smaller part is covered with medium textured soils and impervious surfaces. The analysis indicated that the SCS-CN method fails to predict runoff for the storm events studied, and that there is a strong correlation between the CN values obtained from measured runoff and the rainfall depth. The hypothesis that this correlation could be attributed to the existence of an impermeable part in a very permeable watershed was examined in depth, by developing a numerical simulation water flow model for predicting surface runoff generated from each of the three soil types of the watershed. Numerical runs were performed using the HYDRUS-1D code. The results support the validity of this hypothesis for most of the events examined where the linear runoff formula provides better results than the SCS-CN method. The runoff coefficient of this formula can be taken equal to the percentage of the impervious area. However, the linear formula should be applied with caution in case of extreme events with very high rainfall intensities. In this case, the medium textured soils may significantly contribute to the total runoff and the linear formula may significantly underestimate the runoff produced.

Applying a Multi-Model Ensemble Method for Long-Term Runoff Prediction under Climate Change Scenarios for the Yellow River Basin, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Linus Zhang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Given the substantial impacts that are expected due to climate change, it is crucial that accurate rainfall–runoff results are provided for various decision-making purposes. However, these modeling results often generate uncertainty or bias due to the imperfect character of individual models. In this paper, a genetic algorithm together with a Bayesian model averaging method are employed to provide a multi-model ensemble (MME and combined runoff prediction under climate change scenarios produced from eight rainfall–runoff models for the Yellow River Basin. The results show that the multi-model ensemble method, especially the genetic algorithm method, can produce more reliable predictions than the other considered rainfall–runoff models. These results show that it is possible to reduce the uncertainty and thus improve the accuracy for future projections using different models because an MME approach evens out the bias involved in the individual model. For the study area, the final combined predictions reveal that less runoff is expected under most climatic scenarios, which will threaten water security of the basin.

A glacier runoff extension to the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System

Science.gov (United States)

Van Beusekom, Ashley E.; Viger, Roland

2016-01-01

A module to simulate glacier runoff, PRMSglacier, was added to PRMS (Precipitation Runoff Modeling System), a distributed-parameter, physical-process hydrological simulation code. The extension does not require extensive on-glacier measurements or computational expense but still relies on physical principles over empirical relations as much as is feasible while maintaining model usability. PRMSglacier is validated on two basins in Alaska, Wolverine, and Gulkana Glacier basin, which have been studied since 1966 and have a substantial amount of data with which to test model performance over a long period of time covering a wide range of climatic and hydrologic conditions. When error in field measurements is considered, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of streamflow are 0.87 and 0.86, the absolute bias fractions of the winter mass balance simulations are 0.10 and 0.08, and the absolute bias fractions of the summer mass balances are 0.01 and 0.03, all computed over 42 years for the Wolverine and Gulkana Glacier basins, respectively. Without taking into account measurement error, the values are still within the range achieved by the more computationally expensive codes tested over shorter time periods.

Modelling surface run-off and trends analysis over India

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

exponential model was developed between the rainfall and the run-off that predicted the run-off with an R2 of ... precipitation and other climate parameters is well documented ...... Sen P K 1968 Estimates of the regression coefficient based.

Possibilities of water run-off models by using geological information systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oeverland, H.; Kleeberg, H.B.

1992-01-01

The movement of water in a given region is determined by a number of regional factors, e.g. land use and topography. However, the available precipitation-runoff models take little account of this regional information. Geological information systems, on the other hand, are instruments for efficient management, presentation and evaluation of local information, so the best approach would be a combination of the two types of models. The requirements to be met by such a system are listed; they result from the processes to be modelled (continuous runoff, high-water runoff, mass transfer) but also from the available data and their acquisition and processing. Ten of the best-known precipitation-runoff models are presented and evaluated on the basis of the requirements listed. The basic concept of an integrated model is outlined, and additional modulus required for modelling are defined. (orig./BBR) [de

Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Mei; Wang, Dong; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian; Singh, Vijay P.

2016-01-01

In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall–runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ‘‘wet years and dry years predictability barrier,’’ to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. - Highlights: • The improved phase-space reconstruction model of monthly runoff is established. • Two variables (temperature and rainfall) are incorporated

Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hong, Mei [Research Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing (China); Wang, Dong, E-mail: wangdong@nju.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui [Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian [Research Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing (China); Singh, Vijay P. [Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States)

2016-07-15

In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall–runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ‘‘wet years and dry years predictability barrier,’’ to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. - Highlights: • The improved phase-space reconstruction model of monthly runoff is established. • Two variables (temperature and rainfall) are incorporated

Robust Initial Wetness Condition Framework of an Event-Based Rainfall–Runoff Model Using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wooyeon Sunwoo

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Runoff prediction in limited-data areas is vital for hydrological applications, such as the design of infrastructure and flood defenses, runoff forecasting, and water management. Rainfall–runoff models may be useful for simulation of runoff generation, particularly event-based models, which offer a practical modeling scheme because of their simplicity. However, there is a need to reduce the uncertainties related to the estimation of the initial wetness condition (IWC prior to a rainfall event. Soil moisture is one of the most important variables in rainfall–runoff modeling, and remotely sensed soil moisture is recognized as an effective way to improve the accuracy of runoff prediction. In this study, the IWC was evaluated based on remotely sensed soil moisture by using the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN method, which is one of the representative event-based models used for reducing the uncertainty of runoff prediction. Four proxy variables for the IWC were determined from the measurements of total rainfall depth (API5, ground-based soil moisture (SSMinsitu, remotely sensed surface soil moisture (SSM, and soil water index (SWI provided by the advanced scatterometer (ASCAT. To obtain a robust IWC framework, this study consists of two main parts: the validation of remotely sensed soil moisture, and the evaluation of runoff prediction using four proxy variables with a set of rainfall–runoff events in the East Asian monsoon region. The results showed an acceptable agreement between remotely sensed soil moisture (SSM and SWI and ground based soil moisture data (SSMinsitu. In the proxy variable analysis, the SWI indicated the optimal value among the proposed proxy variables. In the runoff prediction analysis considering various infiltration conditions, the SSM and SWI proxy variables significantly reduced the runoff prediction error as compared with API5 by 60% and 66%, respectively. Moreover, the proposed IWC framework with

ArcCN-Runoff: An ArcGIS tool for generating curve number and runoff maps

Science.gov (United States)

Zhan, X.; Huang, M.-L.

2004-01-01

The development and the application of ArcCN-Runoff tool, an extension of ESRI@ ArcGIS software, are reported. This tool can be applied to determine curve numbers and to calculate runoff or infiltration for a rainfall event in a watershed. Implementation of GIS techniques such as dissolving, intersecting, and a curve-number reference table improve efficiency. Technical processing time may be reduced from days, if not weeks, to hours for producing spatially varied curve number and runoff maps. An application example for a watershed in Lyon County and Osage County, Kansas, USA, is presented. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How uncertain is model-based prediction of copper loads in stormwater runoff?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lindblom, Erik Ulfson; Ahlman, S.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

2007-01-01

(runoff volumes and pollutant masses). We use the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology and generate posterior parameter distributions that result in model outputs encompassing a significant number of the highly variable measurements. Given the applied pollution accumulation......In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of the uncertainty related with estimating the total load of pollution (copper) from a separate stormwater drainage system, conditioned on a specific combination of input data, a dynamic conceptual pollutant accumulation-washout model and measurements...

Computing LS factor by runoff paths on TIN

Science.gov (United States)

Kavka, Petr; Krasa, Josef; Bek, Stanislav

2013-04-01

The article shows results of topographic factor (the LS factor in USLE) derivation enhancement focused on detailed Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) based DEMs. It describes a flow paths generation technique using triangulated irregular network (TIN) for terrain morphology description, which is not yet established in soil loss computations. This technique was compared with other procedures of flow direction and flow paths generation based on commonly used raster model (DEM). These overland flow characteristics together with therefrom derived flow accumulation are significant inputs for many scientific models. Particularly they are used in all USLE-based soil erosion models, from which USLE2D, RUSLE3D, Watem/Sedem or USPED can be named as the most acknowledged. Flow routing characteristics are also essential parameters in physically based hydrological and soil erosion models like HEC-HMS, Wepp, Erosion3D, LISEM, SMODERP, etc. Mentioned models are based on regular raster grids, where the identification of runoff direction is problematic. The most common method is Steepest descent (one directional flow), which corresponds well with the concentration of surface runoff into concentrated flow. The Steepest descent algorithm for the flow routing doesn't provide satisfying results, it often creates parallel and narrow flow lines while not respecting real morphological conditions. To overcome this problem, other methods (such as Flux Decomposition, Multiple flow, Deterministic Infinity algorithm etc.) separate the outflow into several components. This approach leads to unrealistic diffusion propagation of the runoff and makes it impossible to be used for simulation of dominant morphological features, such as artificial rills, hedges, sediment traps etc. The modern methods of mapping ground elevations, especially ALS, provide very detailed models even for large river basins, including morphological details. New algorithms for derivation a runoff direction have been developed as

Runoff and sediment generation on bench -terraced hillsides: measurements and up-scaling of a field-based model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Dijk, A.I.J.M.; Bruijnzeel, L.A.; Vertessy, R.A.; Ruijter, J.

2006-01-01

Despite widespread bench-terracing, stream sediment yields from agricultural hillsides in upland West Java remain high. We studied the causes of this lack of effect by combining measurements at different spatial scales using an erosion process model. Event runoff and sediment yield from two 4-ha

A CN-Based Ensembled Hydrological Model for Enhanced Watershed Runoff Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Ajmal

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A major structural inconsistency of the traditional curve number (CN model is its dependence on an unstable fixed initial abstraction, which normally results in sudden jumps in runoff estimation. Likewise, the lack of pre-storm soil moisture accounting (PSMA procedure is another inherent limitation of the model. To circumvent those problems, we used a variable initial abstraction after ensembling the traditional CN model and a French four-parameter (GR4J model to better quantify direct runoff from ungauged watersheds. To mimic the natural rainfall-runoff transformation at the watershed scale, our new parameterization designates intrinsic parameters and uses a simple structure. It exhibited more accurate and consistent results than earlier methods in evaluating data from 39 forest-dominated watersheds, both for small and large watersheds. In addition, based on different performance evaluation indicators, the runoff reproduction results show that the proposed model produced more consistent results for dry, normal, and wet watershed conditions than the other models used in this study.

A two-stage storage routing model for green roof runoff detention.

Science.gov (United States)

Vesuviano, Gianni; Sonnenwald, Fred; Stovin, Virginia

2014-01-01

Green roofs have been adopted in urban drainage systems to control the total quantity and volumetric flow rate of runoff. Modern green roof designs are multi-layered, their main components being vegetation, substrate and, in almost all cases, a separate drainage layer. Most current hydrological models of green roofs combine the modelling of the separate layers into a single process; these models have limited predictive capability for roofs not sharing the same design. An adaptable, generic, two-stage model for a system consisting of a granular substrate over a hard plastic 'egg box'-style drainage layer and fibrous protection mat is presented. The substrate and drainage layer/protection mat are modelled separately by previously verified sub-models. Controlled storm events are applied to a green roof system in a rainfall simulator. The time-series modelled runoff is compared to the monitored runoff for each storm event. The modelled runoff profiles are accurate (mean Rt(2) = 0.971), but further characterization of the substrate component is required for the model to be generically applicable to other roof configurations with different substrate.

A geomorphology-based ANFIS model for multi-station modeling of rainfall-runoff process

Science.gov (United States)

Nourani, Vahid; Komasi, Mehdi

2013-05-01

This paper demonstrates the potential use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques for predicting daily runoff at multiple gauging stations. Uncertainty and complexity of the rainfall-runoff process due to its variability in space and time in one hand and lack of historical data on the other hand, cause difficulties in the spatiotemporal modeling of the process. In this paper, an Integrated Geomorphological Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (IGANFIS) model conjugated with C-means clustering algorithm was used for rainfall-runoff modeling at multiple stations of the Eel River watershed, California. The proposed model could be used for predicting runoff in the stations with lack of data or any sub-basin within the watershed because of employing the spatial and temporal variables of the sub-basins as the model inputs. This ability of the integrated model for spatiotemporal modeling of the process was examined through the cross validation technique for a station. In this way, different ANFIS structures were trained using Sugeno algorithm in order to estimate daily discharge values at different stations. In order to improve the model efficiency, the input data were then classified into some clusters by the means of fuzzy C-means (FCMs) method. The goodness-of-fit measures support the gainful use of the IGANFIS and FCM methods in spatiotemporal modeling of hydrological processes.

Assessing the water balance in the Sahel : Impact of small scale rainfall variability on runoff. Part 2 : Idealized modeling of runoff sensitivity

OpenAIRE

Vischel, Théo; Lebel, Thierry

2007-01-01

As in many other semi-arid regions in the world, the Sahelian hydrological environment is characterized by a mosaic of small endoreic catchments with dry soil surface conditions producing mostly Hortonian runoff. Using an SCS-type event based rainfall-runoff model, an idealized modeling experiment of a Sahelian environment is set up to study the sensitivity of runoff to small scale rainfall variability. A set of 548 observed rain events is used to force the hydrological model to study the sen...

Ensemble empirical model decomposition and neuro-fuzzy conjunction model for middle and long-term runoff forecast

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Q.

2017-12-01

Forecasting the runoff over longer periods, such as months and years, is one of the important tasks for hydrologists and water resource managers to maximize the potential of the limited water. However, due to the nonlinear and nonstationary characteristic of the natural runoff, it is hard to forecast the middle and long-term runoff with a satisfactory accuracy. It has been proven that the forecast performance can be improved by using signal decomposition techniques to product more cleaner signals as model inputs. In this study, a new conjunction model (EEMD-neuro-fuzzy) with adaptive ability is proposed. The ensemble empirical model decomposition (EEMD) is used to decompose the runoff time series into several components, which are with different frequencies and more cleaner than the original time series. Then the neuro-fuzzy model is developed for each component. The final forecast results can be obtained by summing the outputs of all neuro-fuzzy models. Unlike the conventional forecast model, the decomposition and forecast models in this study are adjusted adaptively as long as new runoff information is added. The proposed models are applied to forecast the monthly runoff of Yichang station, located in Yangtze River of China. The results show that the performance of adaptive forecast model we proposed outperforms than the conventional forecast model, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient can reach to 0.9392. Due to its ability to process the nonstationary data, the forecast accuracy, especially in flood season, is improved significantly.

Combination of geochemical and hydrobiological tracers for the analysis of runoff generating processes in a lowland catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Faber, Claas; Wu, Naicheng; Ulrich, Uta; Fohrer, Nicola

2015-04-01

Since lowlands are characterised by flat topography and low hydraulic gradients, groundwater inflow has a large influence to streamflow generation in such catchments. In catchments with intense agricultural land use, artificial drainages are often another major contributor to streamflow. They shorten the soil passage and thus change the matter retention potential as well as runoff dynamics of a catchment. Contribution of surface runoff to streamflow is usually less important in volume. However, due to high concentrations of agrochemicals, surface runoff can constitute an important entry pathway into water bodies, especially if strong precipitation events coincide with fertilizer or pesticide application. The DFG funded project "Separating surface runoff from tile drainage flow in agricultural lowland catchments based on diatoms to improve modelled runoff components and phosphorous transport" investigates prevalent processes in this context in a 50 km² lowland catchment (Kielstau, Schleswig-Holstein, Germany) with the goal of improving existing models. End Member Mixing Analysis (EMMA) is used in the project to determine the relative importance of groundwater, tile drainage and surface runoff to streamflow at daily time steps. It became apparent that geochemical tracers are suitable for distinguishing surface runoff, but are weak for the separation of tile drainage and groundwater influence. We attribute this to the strong and complex interaction between soil water and shallow groundwater tables in the catchment. Recent studies (e.g. Pfister et al. 2011, Tauro et al. 2013) show the potential of diatoms as indicators for hydrological processes. Since we found diatoms to be suitable for the separation of tile drainage and stream samples (Wu et al., unpublished data) in our catchment, we are able to include diatom derived indices (e.g. density, species moisture indices, diversity indices) as traces in EMMA. Our results show that the inclusion of diatom data in the

Variability of Snow Ablation: Consequences for Runoff Generation at the Process Scale and Lessons for Large Cold Regions Catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Pomeroy, J. W.; Carey, S. K.; Granger, R. J.; Hedstrom, N. R.; Janowicz, R.; Pietroniro, A.; Quinton, W. L.

2002-12-01

The supply of water to large northern catchments such as the Mackenzie and Yukon Rivers is dominated by snowmelt runoff from first order mountain catchments. In order to understand the timing, peak and duration of the snowmelt freshet at larger scale it is important to appreciate the spatial and temporal variability of snowmelt and runoff processes at the source. For this reason a comprehensive hydrology study of a Yukon River headwaters catchment, Wolf Creek Research Basin, near Whitehorse, has focussed on the spatial variability of snow ablation and snowmelt runoff generation and the consequences for the water balance in a mountain tundra zone. In northern mountain tundra, surface energetics vary with receipt of solar radiation, shrub vegetation cover and initial snow accumulation. Therefore the timing of snowmelt is controlled by aspect, in that south facing slopes become snow-free 4-5 weeks before the north facing. Runoff generation differs widely between the slopes; there is normally no spring runoff generated from the south facing slope as all meltwater evaporates or infiltrates. On the north facing slope, snowmelt provides substantial runoff to hillside macropores which rapidly route water to the stream channel. Macropore distribution is associated with organic terrain and discontinuous permafrost, which in turn result from the summer surface energetics. Therefore the influence of small-scale snow redistribution and energetics as controlled by topography must be accounted for when calculating contributing areas to larger scale catchments, and estimating the effectiveness of snowfall in generating streamflow. This concept is quite distinct from the drainage controlled contributing area that has been found useful in temperate-zone hydrology.

Towards an improved understanding of hillslope runoff as a supply for groundwater recharge: Assessing hillslope runoff under regional deforestation and varying climate conditions in a drainage basin in central coastal California

Science.gov (United States)

Young, K. S.; Beganskas, S.; Fisher, A. T.

2017-12-01

We use a hydrologic model to analyze hillslope runoff under a range of climate and land use conditions in the San Lorenzo River Basin (SLRB), central coastal California, including contemporary land use and incremental deforestation. The SLRB is a heavily forested watershed with chronically overdrafted aquifers; in some areas, groundwater levels have been lowered by >50 m in recent decades. Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) can help mitigate declines in groundwater storage, routing excess surface flows to locations where they can infiltrate. We are especially interested in opportunities for collection of stormwater runoff, particularly where development and other changes in landuse have increased hill slope runoff. To assess hillslope runoff at the subwatershed scale (10-100 ha; 25-250 ac), we apply the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to a high-resolution, digital elevation model and populate the simulation with area- and density-weighted vegetation and soil parameters calculated from high resolution input data. We also develop and apply a catalog of dry, normal, and wet climate scenarios from the historic record (1981-2014). In addition, we simulate conditions ranging from 0 to 100 percent of redwoods harvested (representing the mid-1800s to 1930s logging era) using a historical land use data set to alter soil and vegetation conditions. Results under contemporary land use suggest there are ample opportunities to establish MAR projects during all climate scenarios; hill slope runoff generation is spatially variable and on average exceeds 23,000 ac-ft/yr (3.2 in/yr) during the driest climate scenario. Preliminary results from the deforestation scenarios show notable increases in hillslope runoff with progressive redwood harvesting. Relative to pre-logging conditions, between 1.1 in (dry climates) and 1.5 in (wet climates) more runoff is generated under contemporary conditions, with most of the runoff increase occurring in urban areas. These modeling methods

Measurement and modeling of diclosulam runoff under the influence of simulated severe rainfall.

Science.gov (United States)

van Wesenbeeck, I J; Peacock, A L; Havens, P L

2001-01-01

A runoff study was conducted near Tifton, GA to measure the losses of water, sediment, and diclosulam (N-(2,6-dichlorophenyl)-5-ethoxy-7-fluoro-[1,2,4]triazolo-[1,5c]-pyrimidine- 2-sulfonamide), a new broadleaf herbicide, under a 50-mm-in-3-h simulated rainfall event on three separate 0.05-ha plots. Results of a runoff study were used to validate the Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM, v. 3.12) using field-measured soil, chemical, and weather inputs. The model-predicted edge-of-field diclosulam loading was within 1% of the average observed diclosulam runoff from the field study; however, partitioning between phases was not as well predicted. The model was subsequently used with worst-case agricultural practice inputs and a 41-yr weather record from Dublin, GA to simulate edge-of-field runoff losses for the two most prevalent soils (Tifton and Bibb) in the southeastern U.S. peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) market for 328 simulation years, and showed that the 90th percentile runoff amounts, expressed as percent of applied diclosulam, were 1.8, 0.6, and 5.2% for the runoff study plots and Tifton and Bibb soils, respectively. The runoff study and modeling indicated that more than 97% of the total diclosulam runoff was transported off the field by water, with < 3% associated with the sediment. Diclosulam losses due to runoff can be further reduced by lower application rates, tillage and crop residue management practices that reduce edge-of-field runoff, and conservation practices such as vegetated filter strips.

A system-theory-based model for monthly river runoff forecasting: model calibration and optimization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wu Jianhua

2014-03-01

Full Text Available River runoff is not only a crucial part of the global water cycle, but it is also an important source for hydropower and an essential element of water balance. This study presents a system-theory-based model for river runoff forecasting taking the Hailiutu River as a case study. The forecasting model, designed for the Hailiutu watershed, was calibrated and verified by long-term precipitation observation data and groundwater exploitation data from the study area. Additionally, frequency analysis, taken as an optimization technique, was applied to improve prediction accuracy. Following model optimization, the overall relative prediction errors are below 10%. The system-theory-based prediction model is applicable to river runoff forecasting, and following optimization by frequency analysis, the prediction error is acceptable.

Distributed hydrological modelling of total dissolved phosphorus transport in an agricultural landscape, part I: distributed runoff generation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Gérard-Marchant

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Successful implementation of best management practices for reducing non-point source (NPS pollution requires knowledge of the location of saturated areas that produce runoff. A physically-based, fully-distributed, GIS-integrated model, the Soil Moisture Distribution and Routing (SMDR model was developed to simulate the hydrologic behavior of small rural upland watersheds with shallow soils and steep to moderate slopes. The model assumes that gravity is the only driving force of water and that most overland flow occurs as saturation excess. The model uses available soil and climatic data, and requires little calibration. The SMDR model was used to simulate runoff production on a 164-ha farm watershed in Delaware County, New York, in the headwaters of New York City water supply. Apart from land use, distributed input parameters were derived from readily available data. Simulated hydrographs compared reasonably with observed flows at the watershed outlet over a eight year simulation period, and peak timing and intensities were well reproduced. Using off-site weather input data produced occasional missed event peaks. Simulated soil moisture distribution agreed well with observed hydrological features and followed the same spatial trend as observed soil moisture contents sampled on four transects. Model accuracy improved when input variables were calibrated within the range of SSURGO-available parameters. The model will be a useful planning tool for reducing NPS pollution from farms in landscapes similar to the Northeastern US.

Distributed Modelling of Stormflow Generation: Assessing the Effect of Ground Cover

Science.gov (United States)

Jarihani, B.; Sidle, R. C.; Roth, C. H.; Bartley, R.; Wilkinson, S. N.

2017-12-01

Understanding the effects of grazing management and land cover changes on surface hydrology is important for water resources and land management. A distributed hydrological modelling platform, wflow, (that was developed as part of Deltares's OpenStreams project) is used to assess the effect of land management practices on runoff generation processes. The model was applied to Weany Creek, a small catchment (13.6 km2) of the Burdekin Basin, North Australia, which is being studied to understand sources of sediment and nutrients to the Great Barrier Reef. Satellite and drone-based ground cover data, high resolution topography from LiDAR, soil properties, and distributed rainfall data were used to parameterise the model. Wflow was used to predict total runoff, peak runoff, time of rise, and lag time for several events of varying magnitudes and antecedent moisture conditions. A nested approach was employed to calibrate the model by using recorded flow hydrographs at three scales: (1) a hillslope sub-catchment: (2) a gullied sub-catchment; and the 13.6 km2 catchment outlet. Model performance was evaluated by comparing observed and predicted stormflow hydrograph attributes using the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency metric. By using a nested approach, spatiotemporal patterns of overland flow occurrence across the catchment can also be evaluated. The results show that a process-based distributed model can be calibrated to simulate spatial and temporal patterns of runoff generation processes, to help identify dominant processes which may be addressed by land management to improve rainfall retention. The model will be used to assess the effects of ground cover changes due to management practices in grazed lands on storm runoff.

The precipitation-/runoff model ZEMOKOST: development of a practical model for the determination of flood runoff in the catchment areas of torrents, including improved data field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohl, B.

2010-01-01

In hydrology a basic task is the estimation of design discharges and runoff changes in ungauged catchments. However, traditional empirical rules of thumb as well as regionalization of measured discharges are subject to uncertainty. It seems that precipitation-runoff modelling is the only comprehensible way to predict discharge alterations due to changes in ungauged basins, even though the results are perhaps not less uncertain. In order to minimize this uncertainty this work presents a new methodology for discharge estimation in ungauged basins by introducing runoff coefficients derived from field assessment, by a new adapted precipitation-runoff model (ZEMOKOST) and routines for a plausibility check. Subsequently ten gauged Austrian catchments were used as hypothetical ungauged catchments for application and verification of this method. Except for special questions in karst- and glacier-hydrology the procedure showed satisfying results. (author) [de

Subgrid Parameterization of the Soil Moisture Storage Capacity for a Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weijian Guo

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Spatial variability plays an important role in nonlinear hydrologic processes. Due to the limitation of computational efficiency and data resolution, subgrid variability is usually assumed to be uniform for most grid-based rainfall-runoff models, which leads to the scale-dependence of model performances. In this paper, the scale effect on the Grid-Xinanjiang model was examined. The bias of the estimation of precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture at the different grid scales, along with the scale-dependence of the effective parameters, highlights the importance of well representing the subgrid variability. This paper presents a subgrid parameterization method to incorporate the subgrid variability of the soil storage capacity, which is a key variable that controls runoff generation and partitioning in the Grid-Xinanjiang model. In light of the similar spatial pattern and physical basis, the soil storage capacity is correlated with the topographic index, whose spatial distribution can more readily be measured. A beta distribution is introduced to represent the spatial distribution of the soil storage capacity within the grid. The results derived from the Yanduhe Basin show that the proposed subgrid parameterization method can effectively correct the watershed soil storage capacity curve. Compared to the original Grid-Xinanjiang model, the model performances are quite consistent at the different grid scales when the subgrid variability is incorporated. This subgrid parameterization method reduces the recalibration necessity when the Digital Elevation Model (DEM resolution is changed. Moreover, it improves the potential for the application of the distributed model in the ungauged basin.

Modeling Ballasted Tracks for Runoff Coefficient C

Science.gov (United States)

2012-08-01

In this study, the Regional Transportation District (RTD)s light rail tracks were modeled to determine the Rational Method : runoff coefficient, C, values corresponding to ballasted tracks. To accomplish this, a laboratory study utilizing a : rain...

High spatial-temporal resolution and integrated surface and subsurface precipitation-runoff modelling for a small stormwater catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Hailegeorgis, Teklu T.; Alfredsen, Knut

2018-02-01

useful for better computation of runoff generated from different land cover, for assessments of stormwater management techniques (e.g. the Low Impact Development or LID) and the impacts of land cover and climate change. There are some simplifications or limitations such as the runoff routing does not involve detailed sewer hydraulics, effects of leakages from water supply systems and faulty/illegal connections from sanitary sewer are not considered, the model cannot identify actual locations of the interactions between the subsurface runoff and sewer pipes and lacks parsimony.

Infiltration on sloping terrain and its role on runoff generation and slope stability

Science.gov (United States)

Loáiciga, Hugo A.; Johnson, J. Michael

2018-06-01

A modified Green-and-Ampt model is formulated to quantify infiltration on sloping terrain underlain by homogeneous soil wetted by surficial water application. This paper's theory for quantifying infiltration relies on the mathematical statement of the coupled partial differential equations (pdes) governing infiltration and runoff. These pdes are solved by employing an explicit finite-difference numerical method that yields the infiltration, the infiltration rate, the depth to the wetting front, the rate of runoff, and the depth of runoff everywhere on the slope during external wetting. Data inputs consist of a water application rate or the rainfall hyetograph of a storm of arbitrary duration, soil hydraulic characteristics and antecedent moisture, and the slope's hydraulic and geometric characteristics. The presented theory predicts the effect an advancing wetting front has on slope stability with respect to translational sliding. This paper's theory also develops the 1D pde governing suspended sediment transport and slope degradation caused by runoff influenced by infiltration. Three examples illustrate the application of the developed theory to calculate infiltration and runoff on a slope and their role on the stability of cohesive and cohesionless soils forming sloping terrain.

Hydrology in a mediterranean mountain environment. The Vallcebre research catchment (north eastern Spain) II. Rainfall-runoff relationships and runoff processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Latron, J.; Solar, M.; Nord, G.; Llorens, P.; Gallart, F.

2009-01-01

Hydrological response and runoff processes have been studied in the Vallcebre research basins (North Eastern Spain) for almost 20 years. Results obtained allowed to build a more complete perceptual model of the hydrological functioning of Mediterranean mountains basins. On a seasonal and monthly scale, there was no simple relationship between rainfall and runoff depths. Monthly rainfall and runoff values revealed the existence of a threshold in the relationship between rainfall and runoff depths. At the event scale, the storm-flow coefficient had a clear seasonal pattern. The effect of the water table position on how rainfall and runoff volumes relate was observed. Examination of soil water potential and water table dynamics during representative floods helped to identify 3 types of characteristic hydrological behaviour during the year. Under dry conditions, runoff was generated essentially as infiltration excess runoff in low permeable areas, whereas saturation excess runoff dominated during wetting-up and wet conditions. During wetting-up transition, saturated areas resulted from the development of scattered perched water tables, whereas in wet conditions they were linked to the rise of the shallow water table. (Author) 8 refs.

Nonlinear and threshold-dominated runoff generation controls DOC export in a small peat catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Birkel, C.; Broder, T.; Biester, H.

2017-03-01

We used a relatively simple two-layer, coupled hydrology-biogeochemistry model to simultaneously simulate streamflow and stream dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in a small lead and arsenic contaminated upland peat catchment in northwestern Germany. The model procedure was informed by an initial data mining analysis, in combination with regression relationships of discharge, DOC, and element export. We assessed the internal model DOC processing based on stream DOC hysteresis patterns and 3-hourly time step groundwater level and soil DOC data for two consecutive summer periods in 2013 and 2014. The parsimonious model (i.e., few calibrated parameters) showed the importance of nonlinear and rapid near-surface runoff generation mechanisms that caused around 60% of simulated DOC load. The total load was high even though these pathways were only activated during storm events on average 30% of the monitoring time—as also shown by the experimental data. Overall, the drier period 2013 resulted in increased nonlinearity but exported less DOC (115 kg C ha-1 yr-1 ± 11 kg C ha-1 yr-1) compared to the equivalent but wetter period in 2014 (189 kg C ha-1 yr-1 ± 38 kg C ha-1 yr-1). The exceedance of a critical water table threshold (-10 cm) triggered a rapid near-surface runoff response with associated higher DOC transport connecting all available DOC pools and subsequent dilution. We conclude that the combination of detailed experimental work with relatively simple, coupled hydrology-biogeochemistry models not only allowed the model to be internally constrained but also provided important insight into how DOC and tightly coupled pollutants or trace elements are mobilized.

DAILY RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELLING BY NEURAL NETWORKS ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

K. Benzineb, M. Remaoun

2016-09-01

Sep 1, 2016 ... The hydrologic behaviour modelling of w. Journal of ... i Ouahrane's basin from rainfall-runoff relation which is non-linea networks ... will allow checking efficiency of formal neural networks for flows simulation in semi-arid zone.

Modeling spray drift and runoff-related inputs of pesticides to receiving water.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xuyang; Luo, Yuzhou; Goh, Kean S

2018-03-01

Pesticides move to surface water via various pathways including surface runoff, spray drift and subsurface flow. Little is known about the relative contributions of surface runoff and spray drift in agricultural watersheds. This study develops a modeling framework to address the contribution of spray drift to the total loadings of pesticides in receiving water bodies. The modeling framework consists of a GIS module for identifying drift potential, the AgDRIFT model for simulating spray drift, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for simulating various hydrological and landscape processes including surface runoff and transport of pesticides. The modeling framework was applied on the Orestimba Creek Watershed, California. Monitoring data collected from daily samples were used for model evaluation. Pesticide mass deposition on the Orestimba Creek ranged from 0.08 to 6.09% of applied mass. Monitoring data suggests that surface runoff was the major pathway for pesticide entering water bodies, accounting for 76% of the annual loading; the rest 24% from spray drift. The results from the modeling framework showed 81 and 19%, respectively, for runoff and spray drift. Spray drift contributed over half of the mass loading during summer months. The slightly lower spray drift contribution as predicted by the modeling framework was mainly due to SWAT's under-prediction of pesticide mass loading during summer and over-prediction of the loading during winter. Although model simulations were associated with various sources of uncertainties, the overall performance of the modeling framework was satisfactory as evaluated by multiple statistics: for simulation of daily flow, the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) ranged from 0.61 to 0.74 and the percent bias (PBIAS) runoff in receiving waters and the design of management practices for mitigating pesticide exposure within a watershed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Application of snowmelt runoff model (SRM in mountainous watersheds: A review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shalamu Abudu

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The snowmelt runoff model (SRM has been widely used in simulation and forecast of streamflow in snow-dominated mountainous basins around the world. This paper presents an overall review of worldwide applications of SRM in mountainous watersheds, particularly in data-sparse watersheds of northwestern China. Issues related to proper selection of input climate variables and parameters, and determination of the snow cover area (SCA using remote sensing data in snowmelt runoff modeling are discussed through extensive review of literature. Preliminary applications of SRM in northwestern China have shown that the model accuracies are relatively acceptable although most of the watersheds lack measured hydro-meteorological data. Future research could explore the feasibility of modeling snowmelt runoff in data-sparse mountainous watersheds in northwestern China by utilizing snow and glacier cover remote sensing data, geographic information system (GIS tools, field measurements, and innovative ways of model parameterization.

Modeling of runoff pollution load in a data scarce situation using ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study used Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate temporal-spatial distribution of surface water runoff (river flow), sediment and nutrient generation in Sondu watershed, and to identify soil erosion and nutrient source hot spots. Annual sediment generation to the lake is 80,000 t/yr composed of mainly silt while ...

Simulation of Runoff Changes Caused by Cropland to Forest Conversion in the Upper Yangtze River Region, SW China

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Pengtao; Wang, Yanhui; Coles, Neil; Xiong, Wei; Xu, Lihong

2015-01-01

The "Grain for Green Project" is a country-wide ecological program to converse marginal cropland to forest, which has been implemented in China since 2002. To quantify influence of this significant vegetation change, Guansihe Hydrological (GSH) Model, a validated physically-based distributed hydrological model, was applied to simulate runoff responses to land use change in the Guansihe watershed that is located in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin in Southwestern China with an area of only 21.1 km2. Runoff responses to two single rainfall events, 90 mm and 206 mm respectively, were simulated for 16 scenarios of cropland to forest conversion. The model simulations indicated that the total runoff generated after conversion to forest was strongly dependent on whether the land was initially used for dry croplands without standing water in fields or constructed (or walled) paddy fields. The simulated total runoff generated from the two rainfall events displayed limited variation for the conversion of dry croplands to forest, while it strongly decreased after paddy fields were converted to forest. The effect of paddy terraces on runoff generation was dependent on the rainfall characteristics and antecedent moisture (or saturation) conditions in the fields. The reduction in simulated runoff generated from intense rainfall events suggested that afforestation and terracing might be effective in managing runoff and had the potential to mitigate flooding in southwestern China. PMID:26192181

The role of forest in runoff generation in a suburban catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Ferreira, C. S. S.; Soares, D.; Soares, A. J. D.; Coelho, C. O. A.; Steenhuis, T. S.; Keizer, J. J.; Walsh, R. P. D.

2012-04-01

Forests play an important role in the water cycle, particularly through their influence on infiltration and evapotranspiration processes. Removing forest for urban growth will affect the hydrological cycle, but to what degree is not known. To improve the knowledge about the role of forest areas in the catchment surface runoff, a total of nine runoff plots (16m2) was installed in the three predominant woodland types found in the small Ribeira dos Covões catchment (620ha), located in a rapid urbanizing area in central Portugal. The three representative study sites comprised: (i) a dense eucalyptus stand on a sandy-loam soil overlying sandstone; (ii) a open eucalyptus stand dominated by dense shrub vegetation, also on a sandy-loam soil overlying sandstone; (iii) a Mediterranean oak stand on a loamy soil overlying limestone. The three plots at each site were bounded by metal sheets and their outlets were connected to a modified Gerlach through for sediments retention and, subsequently, a tipping-bucket device and a tank for recording and collecting the runoff. The overland flow generated by the plots was monitored for almost one year. In addition, soil moisture content was measured automatically at 0-2, 5-10 and 15-20cm soil depth using 5 sensors per plot. Furthermore, soil water repellency was repeatedly measured on the field, through ethanol percentage method. In the dense eucalyptus forest the soil is hydrophobic during most of the year, just vanished after severe rainfall events. This reflects on low soil moisture content that reached 37% during wet periods. In this area, with an average slope of 20°±5°, the runoff coefficient ranged between 0.0% (for a 3mm rainfall event) and 2.2% (for a 23mm rainfall during hydrophobic conditions). In general, the runoff was higher when the soil was extremely repellent, but it also increased with soil moisture rise when the repellence was absent (reaching 0.6%). In the open eucalyptus forest, hydrophobicity is also presented

Hydro-climatic conditions and thermoelectric electricity generation – Part I: Development of models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koch, Hagen; Vögele, Stefan

2013-01-01

In recent years there have been several heat waves affecting the use of thermoelectric power plants, e.g. in Europe and the U.S. In this paper the linkage between hydro-climatic conditions and possible electricity generation restrictions is described. The coupling of hydrological models and a power plant model is presented. In this approach each power plant is considered separately with its technical specifications. Also environmental regulations, e.g. permissible rise in the cooling water temperature, are considered for the respective power plant. The hydrological models developed to simulate river runoff and water temperature are also site specific. The approach presented is applied to Krümmel nuclear power plant in Germany. Analysed are the uncertainties with regard to electricity generation restrictions on account of climatic developments and corresponding higher water temperatures and low flows. Overall, increased water temperatures and declining river runoff lead to more frequent and more severe generation restrictions. It is concluded that the site-specific approach is necessary to reliably simulate power plants water demand, river runoff and water temperature. Using a simulation time step of one day, electricity generation restrictions are significantly higher than for simulations at monthly time step. - Highlights: • An approach to assess climate effects on electricity generation is presented. • Site specific models for power plants, water temperature and discharge are used. • Monthly and daily simulation time-steps give different results. • Climate change effects on generation depend on cooling system and climate scenario

Tracers Show Ecohydrologic Influences on Runoff Generation Components at the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, H.; Liu, J.; Peng, A.; Gu, W.; Wang, W.; Gao, F.

2017-12-01

In order to learn more about the critical zone ecohydrological dynamics at the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a research on the identification of runoff components using tracers was carried out in the Niyang River upstream, a tributary of the Yalung Zangbo River. In this study, four basins with the areas of 182, 216, 243, 213 km2 which are embed in a larger basin were sampled at altitudes between 3667 to 6140 m. The types of land use in the basins mainly include forest land, grassland and glacier. River water and precipitation were sampled monthly, while spring water, glacial ice, soil, and plants were sampled seasonally. Soil and plant samples were taken along the valleys with spatial interval of about 5 km. Soil and plant waters were extracted via cryogenic vacuum distillation method, and then analyzed for isotopes and ions. Preliminary results show that the δD and δ18O of the precipitation water spread approximately along the LMWL of the Namucuo Lake near Lasa city, which varied according to altitude. Stem water δD and δ18O from different elevations and tree species also varied regularly, albeit with no apparent relationship to recent precipitation. It appears that trees utilized fissure water and soil water formed by precipitation. Future efforts will involve (1) an expanded sampling strategy across basins, and (2) a series of experiments on the Hydrohill catchment in the Chuzhou Experimental Facility, whereby an improved understanding of K+, Na+, Ca2+ and Mg2+ export dynamics could aid in much better description and modeling of Niyang River runoff composition and generation. This research is funded by the NSFC project 91647111 and 91647203, which are included in the Runoff Change and its Adaptive Management in the Major Rivers in Southwestern China Major Research Plan.

Evaluation of alternative surface runoff accounting procedures using the SWAT model

Science.gov (United States)

For surface runoff estimation in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, the curve number (CN) procedure is commonly adopted to calculate surface runoff by utilizing antecedent soil moisture condition (SCSI) in field. In the recent version of SWAT (SWAT2005), an alternative approach is ava...

HYSOGs250m, global gridded hydrologic soil groups for curve-number-based runoff modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, C Wade; Prihodko, Lara; Anchang, Julius; Kumar, Sanath; Ji, Wenjie; Hanan, Niall P

2018-05-15

Hydrologic soil groups (HSGs) are a fundamental component of the USDA curve-number (CN) method for estimation of rainfall runoff; yet these data are not readily available in a format or spatial-resolution suitable for regional- and global-scale modeling applications. We developed a globally consistent, gridded dataset defining HSGs from soil texture, bedrock depth, and groundwater. The resulting data product-HYSOGs250m-represents runoff potential at 250 m spatial resolution. Our analysis indicates that the global distribution of soil is dominated by moderately high runoff potential, followed by moderately low, high, and low runoff potential. Low runoff potential, sandy soils are found primarily in parts of the Sahara and Arabian Deserts. High runoff potential soils occur predominantly within tropical and sub-tropical regions. No clear pattern could be discerned for moderately low runoff potential soils, as they occur in arid and humid environments and at both high and low elevations. Potential applications of this data include CN-based runoff modeling, flood risk assessment, and as a covariate for biogeographical analysis of vegetation distributions.

Highway runoff quality models for the protection of environmentally sensitive areas

Science.gov (United States)

Trenouth, William R.; Gharabaghi, Bahram

2016-11-01

This paper presents novel highway runoff quality models using artificial neural networks (ANN) which take into account site-specific highway traffic and seasonal storm event meteorological factors to predict the event mean concentration (EMC) statistics and mean daily unit area load (MDUAL) statistics of common highway pollutants for the design of roadside ditch treatment systems (RDTS) to protect sensitive receiving environs. A dataset of 940 monitored highway runoff events from fourteen sites located in five countries (Canada, USA, Australia, New Zealand, and China) was compiled and used to develop ANN models for the prediction of highway runoff suspended solids (TSS) seasonal EMC statistical distribution parameters, as well as the MDUAL statistics for four different heavy metal species (Cu, Zn, Cr and Pb). TSS EMCs are needed to estimate the minimum required removal efficiency of the RDTS needed in order to improve highway runoff quality to meet applicable standards and MDUALs are needed to calculate the minimum required capacity of the RDTS to ensure performance longevity.

Analysis of runoff for the Baltic basin with an integrated Atmospheric-Ocean-Hydrology Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K.-G. Richter

2006-01-01

Full Text Available A fully integrated Atmospheric-Ocean-Hydrology Model (BALTIMOS = Baltic Integrated Model System has been developed using existing model components. Experiment and model design has been adapted to the Baltic basin with a catchment area of approximately 1 750 000 km2. A comprehensive model validation has been completed using large meteorological and hydrological measurement database. Comparing the calculated runoff from the integrated and non-integrated model system with measurements for three different representative subbasins and the entire Baltic basin, the effect of the integrated model is described. The results display a good agreement between measured and calculated runoff. The effect of the integrated model is rather negligible looking at computed mean values: There is no significant difference between mean monthly runoff of the integrated and non-integrated model during the year with the exception of spring. There is a delay of one month with regard to peak runoff for the non-integrated model in spring caused by different interactive processes during the melting period.

Independent effects of temperature and precipitation on modeled runoff in the conterminous United States

Science.gov (United States)

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2011-01-01

A water-balance model is used to simulate time series of water-year runoff for 4 km ?? 4 km grid cells for the conterminous United States during the 1900-2008 period. Model outputs are used to examine the separate effects of precipitation and temperature on runoff variability. Overall, water-year runoff has increased in the conterminous United States and precipitation has accounted for almost all of the variability in water-year runoff during the past century. In contrast, temperature effects on runoff have been small for most locations in the United States even during periods when temperatures for most of the United States increased significantly. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Applying a regional hydrology model to evaluate locations for groundwater replenishment with hillslope runoff under different climate and land use scenarios in an agricultural basin, central coastal California

Science.gov (United States)

Beganskas, S.; Young, K. S.; Fisher, A. T.; Lozano, S.; Harmon, R. E.; Teo, E. K.

2017-12-01

We are applying a regional hydrology model, Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), to evaluate locations for groundwater replenishment with hillslope runoff in the Pajaro Valley Groundwater Basin (PVGB), central coastal California. Stormwater managed aquifer recharge (MAR) projects collect hillslope runoff before it reaches a stream and infiltrate it into underlying aquifers, improving groundwater supply. The PVGB is a developed agricultural basin where groundwater provides >85% of water for irrigation and municipal needs; stormwater-MAR projects are being considered to address chronic overdraft and saltwater intrusion. We are applying PRMS to assess on a subwatershed scale (10-100 ha; 25-250 acres) where adequate runoff is generated to supply stormwater-MAR in coincidence with suitable conditions for infiltration and recharge. Data from active stormwater-MAR projects in the PVGB provide ground truth for model results. We are also examining how basinwide hydrology responds to changing land use and climate, and the potential implications for future water management. To prepare extensive input files for PRMS models, we developed ArcGIS and Python tools to delineate a topographic model grid and incorporate high-resolution soil, vegetation, and other physical data into each grid region; we also developed tools to analyze and visualize model output. Using historic climate records, we generated dry, normal, and wet climate scenarios, defined as having approximately 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile annual rainfall, respectively. We also generated multiple land use scenarios by replacing developed areas with native vegetation. Preliminary results indicate that many parts of the PVGB generate significant runoff and have suitable infiltration/recharge conditions. Reducing basinwide overdraft by 10% would require collecting less than 5% of total hillslope runoff, even during the dry scenario; this demonstrates that stormwater-MAR could be an effective water management

Semantic 3d City Model to Raster Generalisation for Water Run-Off Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Verbree, E.; de Vries, M.; Gorte, B.; Oude Elberink, S.; Karimlou, G.

2013-09-01

Water run-off modelling applied within urban areas requires an appropriate detailed surface model represented by a raster height grid. Accurate simulations at this scale level have to take into account small but important water barriers and flow channels given by the large-scale map definitions of buildings, street infrastructure, and other terrain objects. Thus, these 3D features have to be rasterised such that each cell represents the height of the object class as good as possible given the cell size limitations. Small grid cells will result in realistic run-off modelling but with unacceptable computation times; larger grid cells with averaged height values will result in less realistic run-off modelling but fast computation times. This paper introduces a height grid generalisation approach in which the surface characteristics that most influence the water run-off flow are preserved. The first step is to create a detailed surface model (1:1.000), combining high-density laser data with a detailed topographic base map. The topographic map objects are triangulated to a set of TIN-objects by taking into account the semantics of the different map object classes. These TIN objects are then rasterised to two grids with a 0.5m cell-spacing: one grid for the object class labels and the other for the TIN-interpolated height values. The next step is to generalise both raster grids to a lower resolution using a procedure that considers the class label of each cell and that of its neighbours. The results of this approach are tested and validated by water run-off model runs for different cellspaced height grids at a pilot area in Amersfoort (the Netherlands). Two national datasets were used in this study: the large scale Topographic Base map (BGT, map scale 1:1.000), and the National height model of the Netherlands AHN2 (10 points per square meter on average). Comparison between the original AHN2 height grid and the semantically enriched and then generalised height grids shows

A Data Stream Model For Runoff Simulation In A Changing Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Q.; Shao, J.; Zhang, H.; Wang, G.

2017-12-01

Runoff simulation is of great significance for water engineering design, water disaster control, water resources planning and management in a catchment or region. A large number of methods including concept-based process-driven models and statistic-based data-driven models, have been proposed and widely used in worldwide during past decades. Most existing models assume that the relationship among runoff and its impacting factors is stationary. However, in the changing environment (e.g., climate change, human disturbance), their relationship usually evolves over time. In this study, we propose a data stream model for runoff simulation in a changing environment. Specifically, the proposed model works in three steps: learning a rule set, expansion of a rule, and simulation. The first step is to initialize a rule set. When a new observation arrives, the model will check which rule covers it and then use the rule for simulation. Meanwhile, Page-Hinckley (PH) change detection test is used to monitor the online simulation error of each rule. If a change is detected, the corresponding rule is removed from the rule set. In the second step, for each rule, if it covers more than a given number of instance, the rule is expected to expand. In the third step, a simulation model of each leaf node is learnt with a perceptron without activation function, and is updated with adding a newly incoming observation. Taking Fuxi River catchment as a case study, we applied the model to simulate the monthly runoff in the catchment. Results show that abrupt change is detected in the year of 1997 by using the Page-Hinckley change detection test method, which is consistent with the historic record of flooding. In addition, the model achieves good simulation results with the RMSE of 13.326, and outperforms many established methods. The findings demonstrated that the proposed data stream model provides a promising way to simulate runoff in a changing environment.

Sensitivity-Based Modeling of Evaluating Surface Runoff and Sediment Load using Digital and Analog Mechanisms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olotu Yahaya

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Analyses of runoff- sediment measurement and evaluation using automated and convectional runoff-meters was carried out at Meteorological and Hydrological Station of Auchi Polytechnic, Auchi using two runoff plots (ABCDa and EFGHm of area 2m 2 each, depth 0.26 m and driven into the soil to the depth of 0.13m. Runoff depths and intensities were measured from each of the positioned runoff plot. Automated runoff-meter has a measuring accuracy of ±0.001l/±0.025 mm and rainfall depth-intensity was measured using tipping-bucket rainguage during the period of 14-month of experimentation. Minimum and maximum rainfall depths of 1.2 and 190.3 mm correspond to measured runoff depths (MRo of 0.0 mm for both measurement approaches and 60.4 mm and 48.9 mm respectively. Automated runoffmeter provides precise, accurate and instantaneous result over the convectional measurement of surface runoff. Runoff measuring accuracy for automated runoff-meter from the plot (ABCDa produces R 2 = 0.99; while R 2 = 0.96 for manual evaluation in plot (EFGHm. WEPP and SWAT models were used to simulate the obtained hydrological variables from the applied measurement mechanisms. The outputs of sensitivity simulation analysis indicate that data from automated measuring systems gives a better modelling index and such could be used for running robust runoff-sediment predictive modelling technique under different reservoir sedimentation and water management scenarios.

Runoff and sediment yield model for predicting nuclide transport in watersheds using BIOTRAN

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gallegos, A.F.; Wenzel, W.J.

1990-09-01

The environmental risk simulation model BIOTRAN was interfaced with a series of new subroutines (RUNOFF, GEOFLX, EROSON, and AQUIFER) to predict the movement of nuclides, elements, and pertinent chemical compounds in association with sediments through lateral and channel flow of runoff water. In addition, the movement of water into and out of segmented portions of runoff channels was modeled to simulate the dynamics of moisture flow through specified aquifers within the watershed. The BIOTRAN soil water flux subroutine, WATFLX, was modified to interface the relationships found in the SPUR model for runoff and sediment transport into channels with the particle sorting relationships to predict radionuclide enrichment and movement in watersheds. The new subroutines were applied specifically to Mortandad Canyon within Los Alamos National Laboratory by simultaneous simulation of eight surface vegetational subdivisions and associated channel and aquifer segments of this watershed. This report focuses on descriptions of the construction and rationale for the new subroutines and on discussing both input characteristics and output relationships to known runoff events from Mortandad Canyon. Limitations of the simplified input on model behavior are also discussed. Uranium-238 was selected as the nuclide for demonstration of the model because it could be assumed to be homogeneously distributed over the watershed surface. 22 refs., 18 figs., 9 tabs.

Assessment of Runoff Contributing Catchment Areas in Rainfall Runoff Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Johansen, C.; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

2005-01-01

to determine with significant precision the hydrological reduction factor is implemented to account all hydrological losses except the initial loss. This paper presents an inconsistency between calculations of the hydrological reduction factor, based on measurements of rainfall and runoff, and till now...... recommended literary values for residential areas. It is proven by comparing rainfall-runoff measurements from four different residential catchments that the literary values of the hydrological reduction factor are over-estimated for this type of catchments. In addition, different catchment descriptions...

Parameter estimation in stochastic rainfall-runoff models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jonsdottir, Harpa; Madsen, Henrik; Palsson, Olafur Petur

2006-01-01

A parameter estimation method for stochastic rainfall-runoff models is presented. The model considered in the paper is a conceptual stochastic model, formulated in continuous-discrete state space form. The model is small and a fully automatic optimization is, therefore, possible for estimating all...... the parameter values are optimal for simulation or prediction. The data originates from Iceland and the model is designed for Icelandic conditions, including a snow routine for mountainous areas. The model demands only two input data series, precipitation and temperature and one output data series...

Event-based rainfall-runoff modelling of the Kelantan River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Basarudin, Z.; Adnan, N. A.; Latif, A. R. A.; Tahir, W.; Syafiqah, N.

2014-02-01

Flood is one of the most common natural disasters in Malaysia. According to hydrologists there are many causes that contribute to flood events. The two most dominant factors are the meteorology factor (i.e climate change) and change in land use. These two factors contributed to floods in recent decade especially in the monsoonal catchment such as Malaysia. This paper intends to quantify the influence of rainfall during extreme rainfall events on the hydrological model in the Kelantan River catchment. Therefore, two dynamic inputs were used in the study: rainfall and river discharge. The extreme flood events in 2008 and 2004 were compared based on rainfall data for both years. The events were modeled via a semi-distributed HEC-HMS hydrological model. Land use change was not incorporated in the study because the study only tries to quantify rainfall changes during these two events to simulate the discharge and runoff value. Therefore, the land use data representing the year 2004 were used as inputs in the 2008 runoff model. The study managed to demonstrate that rainfall change has a significant impact to determine the peak discharge and runoff depth for the study area.

Event-based rainfall-runoff modelling of the Kelantan River Basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basarudin, Z; Adnan, N A; Latif, A R A; Syafiqah, N; Tahir, W

2014-01-01

Flood is one of the most common natural disasters in Malaysia. According to hydrologists there are many causes that contribute to flood events. The two most dominant factors are the meteorology factor (i.e climate change) and change in land use. These two factors contributed to floods in recent decade especially in the monsoonal catchment such as Malaysia. This paper intends to quantify the influence of rainfall during extreme rainfall events on the hydrological model in the Kelantan River catchment. Therefore, two dynamic inputs were used in the study: rainfall and river discharge. The extreme flood events in 2008 and 2004 were compared based on rainfall data for both years. The events were modeled via a semi-distributed HEC-HMS hydrological model. Land use change was not incorporated in the study because the study only tries to quantify rainfall changes during these two events to simulate the discharge and runoff value. Therefore, the land use data representing the year 2004 were used as inputs in the 2008 runoff model. The study managed to demonstrate that rainfall change has a significant impact to determine the peak discharge and runoff depth for the study area

Mathematical modeling of rainwater runoff over catchment surface ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The subject of an article is the mathematical modeling of the rainwater runoff along the surface catchment taking account the transport of pollution which permeates into the water flow from a porous media of soil at the certain areas of this surface. The developed mathematical model consists of two types of equations: the ...

Transport and solubility of Hetero-disperse dry deposition particulate matter subject to urban source area rainfall-runoff processes

Science.gov (United States)

Ying, G.; Sansalone, J.

2010-03-01

SummaryWith respect to hydrologic processes, the impervious pavement interface significantly alters relationships between rainfall and runoff. Commensurate with alteration of hydrologic processes the pavement also facilitates transport and solubility of dry deposition particulate matter (PM) in runoff. This study examines dry depositional flux rates, granulometric modification by runoff transport, as well as generation of total dissolved solids (TDS), alkalinity and conductivity in source area runoff resulting from PM solubility. PM is collected from a paved source area transportation corridor (I-10) in Baton Rouge, Louisiana encompassing 17 dry deposition and 8 runoff events. The mass-based granulometric particle size distribution (PSD) is measured and modeled through a cumulative gamma function, while PM surface area distributions across the PSD follow a log-normal distribution. Dry deposition flux rates are modeled as separate first-order exponential functions of previous dry hours (PDH) for PM and suspended, settleable and sediment fractions. When trans-located from dry deposition into runoff, PSDs are modified, with a d50m decreasing from 331 to 14 μm after transport and 60 min of settling. Solubility experiments as a function of pH, contact time and particle size using source area rainfall generate constitutive models to reproduce pH, alkalinity, TDS and alkalinity for historical events. Equilibrium pH, alkalinity and TDS are strongly influenced by particle size and contact times. The constitutive leaching models are combined with measured PSDs from a series of rainfall-runoff events to demonstrate that the model results replicate alkalinity and TDS in runoff from the subject watershed. Results illustrate the granulometry of dry deposition PM, modification of PSDs along the drainage pathway, and the role of PM solubility for generation of TDS, alkalinity and conductivity in urban source area rainfall-runoff.

Catchment Morphing (CM): A Novel Approach for Runoff Modeling in Ungauged Catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jun; Han, Dawei

2017-12-01

Runoff prediction in ungauged catchments has been one of the major challenges in the past decades. However, due to the tremendous heterogeneity of the catchments, obstacles exist in deducing model parameters for ungauged catchments from gauged ones. We propose a novel approach to predict ungauged runoff with Catchment Morphing (CM) using a fully distributed model. CM is defined as by changing the catchment characteristics (area and slope here) from the baseline model built with a gauged catchment to model the ungauged ones. As a proof of concept, a case study on seven catchments in the UK has been used to demonstrate the proposed scheme. Comparing the predicted with measured runoff, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) varies from 0.03 to 0.69 in six catchments. Moreover, NSEs are significantly improved (up to 0.81) when considering the discrepancy of percentage runoff between the target and baseline catchments. A distinct advantage has been experienced by comparing the CM with a traditional method for ungauged catchments. The advantages are: (a) less demand of the similarity between the baseline catchment and the ungauged catchment, (b) less demand of available data, and (c) potentially widely applicable in varied catchments. This study demonstrates the feasibility of the proposed scheme as a potentially powerful alternative to the conventional methods in runoff predictions of ungauged catchments. Clearly, more work beyond this pilot study is needed to explore and develop this new approach further to maturity by the hydrological community.

Earthworms and tree roots: A model study of the effect of preferential flow paths on runoff generation and groundwater recharge in steep, saprolitic, tropical lowland catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Yanyan; Ogden, Fred L.; Zhu, Jianting

2017-07-01

Preferential flow paths (PFPs) affect the hydrological response of humid tropical catchments but have not received sufficient attention. We consider PFPs created by tree roots and earthworms in a near-surface soil layer in steep, humid, tropical lowland catchments and hypothesize that observed hydrological behaviors can be better captured by reasonably considering PFPs in this layer. We test this hypothesis by evaluating the performance of four different physically based distributed model structures without and with PFPs in different configurations. Model structures are tested both quantitatively and qualitatively using hydrological, geophysical, and geochemical data both from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute Agua Salud Project experimental catchment(s) in Central Panama and other sources in the literature. The performance of different model structures is evaluated using runoff Volume Error and three Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency measures against observed total runoff, stormflows, and base flows along with visual comparison of simulated and observed hydrographs. Two of the four proposed model structures which include both lateral and vertical PFPs are plausible, but the one with explicit simulation of PFPs performs the best. A small number of vertical PFPs that fully extend below the root zone allow the model to reasonably simulate deep groundwater recharge, which plays a crucial role in base flow generation. Results also show that the shallow lateral PFPs are the main contributor to the observed high flow characteristics. Their number and size distribution are found to be more important than the depth distribution. Our model results are corroborated by geochemical and geophysical observations.

Errors and parameter estimation in precipitation-runoff modeling: 1. Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Troutman, Brent M.

1985-01-01

Errors in complex conceptual precipitation-runoff models may be analyzed by placing them into a statistical framework. This amounts to treating the errors as random variables and defining the probabilistic structure of the errors. By using such a framework, a large array of techniques, many of which have been presented in the statistical literature, becomes available to the modeler for quantifying and analyzing the various sources of error. A number of these techniques are reviewed in this paper, with special attention to the peculiarities of hydrologic models. Known methodologies for parameter estimation (calibration) are particularly applicable for obtaining physically meaningful estimates and for explaining how bias in runoff prediction caused by model error and input error may contribute to bias in parameter estimation.

Runoff from armored slopes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Codell, R.B.

1986-01-01

Models exist for calculating overland flow on hillsides but no models have been found which explicitly deal with runoff from armored slopes. Flow on armored slopes differs from overland flow, because substantial flow occurs beneath the surface of the rock layer at low runnoff, and both above and below the surface for high runoff. In addition to the lack of a suitable model, no estimates of the PMP exist for such small areas and for very short durations. This paper develops a model for calculating runoff from armored embankments. The model considers the effect of slope, drainage area and ''flow concentration'' caused by irregular grading or slumping. A rainfall-duration curve based on the PMP is presented which is suitable for very small drainage areas. The development of the runoff model and rainfall-duration curve is presented below, along with a demonstration of the model on the design of a hypothetical tailings embankment

Streamflow characteristics from modelled runoff time series: Importance of calibration criteria selection

Science.gov (United States)

Poole, Sandra; Vis, Marc; Knight, Rodney; Seibert, Jan

2017-01-01

Ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics (SFCs) of ungauged catchments are often estimated from simulated runoff of hydrologic models that were originally calibrated on gauged catchments. However, SFC estimates of the gauged donor catchments and subsequently the ungauged catchments can be substantially uncertain when models are calibrated using traditional approaches based on optimization of statistical performance metrics (e.g., Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency). An improved calibration strategy for gauged catchments is therefore crucial to help reduce the uncertainties of estimated SFCs for ungauged catchments. The aim of this study was to improve SFC estimates from modeled runoff time series in gauged catchments by explicitly including one or several SFCs in the calibration process. Different types of objective functions were defined consisting of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency, single SFCs, or combinations thereof. We calibrated a bucket-type runoff model (HBV – Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning – model) for 25 catchments in the Tennessee River basin and evaluated the proposed calibration approach on 13 ecologically relevant SFCs representing major flow regime components and different flow conditions. While the model generally tended to underestimate the tested SFCs related to mean and high-flow conditions, SFCs related to low flow were generally overestimated. The highest estimation accuracies were achieved by a SFC-specific model calibration. Estimates of SFCs not included in the calibration process were of similar quality when comparing a multi-SFC calibration approach to a traditional model efficiency calibration. For practical applications, this implies that SFCs should preferably be estimated from targeted runoff model calibration, and modeled estimates need to be carefully interpreted.

Relating runoff generation mechanisms to concentration-discharge relationships in catchments with well-characterized Critical Zone structures and hydrologic dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Hahm, W. J.; Wang, J.; Druhan, J. L.; Rempe, D.; Dietrich, W. E.

2017-12-01

Stream solute concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships integrate catchment-scale hydrologic and geochemical processes, potentially yielding valuable information about runoff generation and weathering mechanisms. However, recent compilations have established that chemostasis—the condition where solute concentrations are invariant across large ranges of runoff—is observed in watersheds of diverse lithology, climate, and topography, suggesting an equifinality of the C-Q relationship independent of hydrologic process. Here we explore C-Q signals in contrasting catchments of the Eel River Critical Zone (CZ) Observatory in the Northern California Coast Ranges, where, unlike most watersheds where chemostasis has been observed, hillslope hydrologic processes are well characterized via years of intensive hydrologic monitoring. Our two catchments in the Franciscan Complex have radically different runoff generation mechanisms arising from differences in CZ structure: at Elder Creek (Coastal Belt), rain passes vertically as unsaturated flow through soil, saprolite, and a thick weathered rock zone before perching as groundwater on fresh bedrock and flowing laterally through fractures to generate streamflow, resulting in nearly chemostatic major cation behavior (power law C-Q slopes (B) ≈ 0 to -0.1). At Dry Creek (Central Belt), the thin (2 to 3 m) hydrologically active CZ completely saturates in most storm events, generating saturation overland flow across the landscape. New data from Dry Creek reveal log-log C-Q relationships for major cations that exhibit negative curvature, indicating a trend towards increasing dilution at higher flow rates and a possible C-Q signature of overland flow. High geomorphic channel drainage density (16.9 km/km2) results in short flow paths and, presumably, short water hillslope residence times at high runoff when overland flow dominates (> 50 mm d-1). Surprisingly, even at these high runoff rates, pure dilution does not occur (high

Simulation of daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations within the Cedar River Basin, Iowa, using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model

Science.gov (United States)

Christiansen, Daniel E.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, conducted a study to examine techniques for estimation of daily streamflows using hydrological models and statistical methods. This report focuses on the use of a hydrologic model, the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, to estimate daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, physically based, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on surface-water runoff and general basin hydrology. The Cedar River Basin was selected to construct a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model that simulates the period from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010. The calibration period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004, and the validation periods were from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010 and January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A Geographic Information System tool was used to delineate the Cedar River Basin and subbasins for the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and to derive parameters based on the physical geographical features. Calibration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was completed using a U.S. Geological Survey calibration software tool. The main objective of the calibration was to match the daily streamflow simulated by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model with streamflow measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. The Cedar River Basin daily streamflow model performed with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.82 to 0.33 during the calibration period, and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.77 to -0.04 during the validation period. The Cedar River Basin model is meeting the criteria of greater than 0.50 Nash-Sutcliffe and is a good fit for streamflow conditions for the calibration period at all but one location, Austin, Minnesota

Calibration of the APEX Model to Simulate Management Practice Effects on Runoff, Sediment, and Phosphorus Loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhandari, Ammar B; Nelson, Nathan O; Sweeney, Daniel W; Baffaut, Claire; Lory, John A; Senaviratne, Anomaa; Pierzynski, Gary M; Janssen, Keith A; Barnes, Philip L

2017-11-01

Process-based computer models have been proposed as a tool to generate data for Phosphorus (P) Index assessment and development. Although models are commonly used to simulate P loss from agriculture using managements that are different from the calibration data, this use of models has not been fully tested. The objective of this study is to determine if the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX) model can accurately simulate runoff, sediment, total P, and dissolved P loss from 0.4 to 1.5 ha of agricultural fields with managements that are different from the calibration data. The APEX model was calibrated with field-scale data from eight different managements at two locations (management-specific models). The calibrated models were then validated, either with the same management used for calibration or with different managements. Location models were also developed by calibrating APEX with data from all managements. The management-specific models resulted in satisfactory performance when used to simulate runoff, total P, and dissolved P within their respective systems, with > 0.50, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency > 0.30, and percent bias within ±35% for runoff and ±70% for total and dissolved P. When applied outside the calibration management, the management-specific models only met the minimum performance criteria in one-third of the tests. The location models had better model performance when applied across all managements compared with management-specific models. Our results suggest that models only be applied within the managements used for calibration and that data be included from multiple management systems for calibration when using models to assess management effects on P loss or evaluate P Indices. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

An application of artificial intelligence for rainfall–runoff modeling

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

This study proposes an application of two techniques of artificial intelligence (AI) ... (2006) applied rainfall–runoff modeling using ANN ... in artificial intelligence, engineering and science .... usually be estimated from a sample of observations.

Real time adjustment of slow changing flow components in distributed urban runoff models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borup, Morten; Grum, M.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

2011-01-01

In many urban runoff systems infiltrating water contributes with a substantial part of the total inflow and therefore most urban runoff modelling packages include hydrological models for simulating the infiltrating inflow. This paper presents a method for deterministic updating of the hydrological...... improvements for regular simulations as well as up to 10 hour forecasts. The updating method reduces the impact of non-representative precipitation estimates as well as model structural errors and leads to better overall modelling results....

Runoff of pesticides from rice fields in the Ile de Camargue (Rhone river delta, France): Field study and modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Comoretto, Laetitia; Arfib, Bruno; Talva, Romain; Chauvelon, Philippe; Pichaud, Marc; Chiron, Serge; Hoehener, Patrick

2008-01-01

A field study on the runoff of pesticides was conducted during the cultivation period in 2004 on a hydraulically isolated rice farm of 120 ha surface with one central water outlet. Four pesticides were studied: Alphamethrin, MCPA, Oxadiazon, and Pretilachlor. Alphamethrin concentrations in runoff never exceeded 0.001 μg L -1 . The three other pesticides were found in concentrations between 5.2 and 28.2 μg L -1 in the runoff water shortly after the application and decreased thereafter. The data for MCPA compared reasonably well with predictions by an analytical runoff model, accounting for volatilization, degradation, leaching to groundwater, and sorption to soil. The runoff model estimated that runoff accounted for as much as 18-42% of mass loss for MCPA. Less runoff is observed and predicted for Oxadiazon and Pretilachlor. It was concluded that runoff from rice paddies carries important loads of dissolved pesticides to the wetlands in the Ile de Camargue, and that the model can be used to predict this runoff. - Runoff of dissolved pesticides was measured on a rice farm in the Camargue (France) and modeled with an analytical model

Prediction of hydrographs and flow-duration curves in almost ungauged catchments: Which runoff measurements are most informative for model calibration?

Science.gov (United States)

Pool, Sandra; Viviroli, Daniel; Seibert, Jan

2017-11-01

Applications of runoff models usually rely on long and continuous runoff time series for model calibration. However, many catchments around the world are ungauged and estimating runoff for these catchments is challenging. One approach is to perform a few runoff measurements in a previously fully ungauged catchment and to constrain a runoff model by these measurements. In this study we investigated the value of such individual runoff measurements when taken at strategic points in time for applying a bucket-type runoff model (HBV) in ungauged catchments. Based on the assumption that a limited number of runoff measurements can be taken, we sought the optimal sampling strategy (i.e. when to measure the streamflow) to obtain the most informative data for constraining the runoff model. We used twenty gauged catchments across the eastern US, made the assumption that these catchments were ungauged, and applied different runoff sampling strategies. All tested strategies consisted of twelve runoff measurements within one year and ranged from simply using monthly flow maxima to a more complex selection of observation times. In each case the twelve runoff measurements were used to select 100 best parameter sets using a Monte Carlo calibration approach. Runoff simulations using these 'informed' parameter sets were then evaluated for an independent validation period in terms of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of the hydrograph and the mean absolute relative error of the flow-duration curve. Model performance measures were normalized by relating them to an upper and a lower benchmark representing a well-informed and an uninformed model calibration. The hydrographs were best simulated with strategies including high runoff magnitudes as opposed to the flow-duration curves that were generally better estimated with strategies that captured low and mean flows. The choice of a sampling strategy covering the full range of runoff magnitudes enabled hydrograph and flow-duration curve

Development of rainfall-runoff forecast model | Oyebode | Journal of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... and meterological variables involved in rainfall-runoff process to improve forecast accuracy of rainfallrunoff. ... The simulation was done using MATLAB® 7.0. The simulation results showed that neurofuzzy-based model has higher coefficient ...

[Impacts of forest and precipitation on runoff and sediment in Tianshui watershed and GM models].

Science.gov (United States)

Ouyang, H

2000-12-01

This paper analyzed the impacts of foret stand volume and precipitation on annual erosion modulus, mean sediment, maximum sediment, mean runoff, maximum runoff, minimum runoff, mean water level, maximum water level and minimum water level in Tianshui watershed, and also analyzed the effect of the variation of forest stand volume on monthly mean runoff, minimum runoff and mean water level. The dynamic models of grey system GM(1, N) were constructed to simulate the changes of these hydrological elements. The dynamic GM models on the impact of stand volumes of different forest types(Chinese fir, masson pine and broad-leaved forests) with different age classes(young, middle-aged, mature and over-mature) and that of precipitation on the hydrological elements were also constructed, and their changes with time were analyzed.

Historical Trends in Mean and Extreme Runoff and Streamflow Based on Observations and Climate Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Behzad Asadieh

2016-05-01

Full Text Available To understand changes in global mean and extreme streamflow volumes over recent decades, we statistically analyzed runoff and streamflow simulated by the WBM-plus hydrological model using either observational-based meteorological inputs from WATCH Forcing Data (WFD, or bias-corrected inputs from five global climate models (GCMs provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP. Results show that the bias-corrected GCM inputs yield very good agreement with the observation-based inputs in average magnitude of runoff and streamflow. On global average, the observation-based simulated mean runoff and streamflow both decreased about 1.3% from 1971 to 2001. However, GCM-based simulations yield increasing trends over that period, with an inter-model global average of 1% for mean runoff and 0.9% for mean streamflow. In the GCM-based simulations, relative changes in extreme runoff and extreme streamflow (annual maximum daily values and annual-maximum seven-day streamflow are slightly greater than those of mean runoff and streamflow, in terms of global and continental averages. Observation-based simulations show increasing trend in mean runoff and streamflow for about one-half of the land areas and decreasing trend for the other half. However, mean and extreme runoff and streamflow based on the GCMs show increasing trend for approximately two-thirds of the global land area and decreasing trend for the other one-third. Further work is needed to understand why GCM simulations appear to indicate trends in streamflow that are more positive than those suggested by climate observations, even where, as in ISI-MIP, bias correction has been applied so that their streamflow climatology is realistic.

Derivation of flood frequency curves in poorly gauged Mediterranean catchments using a simple stochastic hydrological rainfall-runoff model

Science.gov (United States)

Aronica, G. T.; Candela, A.

2007-12-01

SummaryIn this paper a Monte Carlo procedure for deriving frequency distributions of peak flows using a semi-distributed stochastic rainfall-runoff model is presented. The rainfall-runoff model here used is very simple one, with a limited number of parameters and practically does not require any calibration, resulting in a robust tool for those catchments which are partially or poorly gauged. The procedure is based on three modules: a stochastic rainfall generator module, a hydrologic loss module and a flood routing module. In the rainfall generator module the rainfall storm, i.e. the maximum rainfall depth for a fixed duration, is assumed to follow the two components extreme value (TCEV) distribution whose parameters have been estimated at regional scale for Sicily. The catchment response has been modelled by using the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method, in a semi-distributed form, for the transformation of total rainfall to effective rainfall and simple form of IUH for the flood routing. Here, SCS-CN method is implemented in probabilistic form with respect to prior-to-storm conditions, allowing to relax the classical iso-frequency assumption between rainfall and peak flow. The procedure is tested on six practical case studies where synthetic FFC (flood frequency curve) were obtained starting from model variables distributions by simulating 5000 flood events combining 5000 values of total rainfall depth for the storm duration and AMC (antecedent moisture conditions) conditions. The application of this procedure showed how Monte Carlo simulation technique can reproduce the observed flood frequency curves with reasonable accuracy over a wide range of return periods using a simple and parsimonious approach, limited data input and without any calibration of the rainfall-runoff model.

Regionalising Parameters of a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model for ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

IHACRES, a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was calibrated to six catchments ranging in size from 49km2 to 600 km2 within the upper Tana River basin to obtain a set of model parameters that characterise the hydrological behaviour within the region. Physical catchment attributes indexing topography, soil and ...

Modeling time-dependent toxicity to aquatic organisms from pulsed exposure of PAHs in urban road runoff

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Wei; Ye Youbin; Tong Yindong; Ou Langbo; Hu Dan; Wang Xuejun

2011-01-01

Understanding of the magnitude of urban runoff toxicity to aquatic organisms is important for effective management of runoff quality. In this paper, the aquatic toxicity of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban road runoff was evaluated through a damage assessment model. Mortality probability of the organisms representative in aquatic environment was calculated using the monitored PAHs concentration in road runoff. The result showed that the toxicity of runoff in spring was higher than those in summer. Analysis of the time-dependent toxicity of series of runoff water samples illustrated that the toxicity of runoff water in the final phase of a runoff event may be as high as those in the initial phase. Therefore, the storm runoff treatment systems or strategies designed for capture and treatment of the initial portion of runoff may be inappropriate for control of runoff toxicity. - Research highlights: → Toxicity resulting from realistic exposure patterns of urban runoff is evaluated. → Toxicity of runoff water in the final phase is as high as the initial phase. → Treatment of the initial runoff portion is inappropriate to abate runoff toxicity. - Toxicity to aquatic organisms after sequential pulsed exposure to PAHs in urban road runoff is evaluated.

A mathematical model for soil solute transfer into surface runoff as influenced by rainfall detachment.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Ting; Wang, Quanjiu; Wu, Laosheng; Zhao, Guangxu; Liu, Yanli; Zhang, Pengyu

2016-07-01

Nutrients transport is a main source of water pollution. Several models describing transport of soil nutrients such as potassium, phosphate and nitrate in runoff water have been developed. The objectives of this research were to describe the nutrients transport processes by considering the effect of rainfall detachment, and to evaluate the factors that have greatest influence on nutrients transport into runoff. In this study, an existing mass-conservation equation and rainfall detachment process were combined and augmented to predict runoff of nutrients in surface water in a Loess Plateau soil in Northwestern Yangling, China. The mixing depth is a function of time as a result of rainfall impact, not a constant as described in previous models. The new model was tested using two different sub-models of complete-mixing and incomplete-mixing. The complete-mixing model is more popular to use for its simplicity. It captured the runoff trends of those high adsorption nutrients, and of nutrients transport along steep slopes. While the incomplete-mixing model predicted well for the highest observed concentrations of the test nutrients. Parameters inversely estimated by the models were applied to simulate nutrients transport, results suggested that both models can be adopted to describe nutrients transport in runoff under the impact of rainfall. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rainfall-runoff model for prediction of waterborne viral contamination in a small river catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Gelati, E.; Dommar, C.; Lowe, R.; Polcher, J.; Rodó, X.

2013-12-01

We present a lumped rainfall-runoff model aimed at providing useful information for the prediction of waterborne viral contamination in small rivers. Viral contamination of water bodies may occur because of the discharge of sewage effluents and of surface runoff over areas affected by animal waste loads. Surface runoff is caused by precipitation that cannot infiltrate due to its intensity and to antecedent soil water content. It may transport animal feces to adjacent water bodies and cause viral contamination. We model streamflow by separating it into two components: subsurface flow, which is produced by infiltrated precipitation; and surface runoff. The model estimates infiltrated and non-infiltrated precipitation and uses impulse-response functions to compute the corresponding fractions of streamflow. The developed methodologies are applied to the Glafkos river, whose catchment extends for 102 km2 and includes the city of Patra. Streamflow and precipitation observations are available at a daily time resolution. Waterborne virus concentration measurements were performed approximately every second week from the beginning of 2011 to mid 2012. Samples were taken at several locations: in river water upstream of Patras and in the urban area; in sea water at the river outlet and approximately 2 km south-west of Patras; in sewage effluents before and after treatment. The rainfall-runoff model was calibrated and validated using observed streamflow and precipitation data. The model contribution to waterborne viral contamination prediction was benchmarked by analyzing the virus concentration measurements together with the estimated surface runoff values. The presented methodology may be a first step towards the development of waterborne viral contamination alert systems. Predicting viral contamination of water bodies would benefit sectors such as water supply and tourism.

Analysis and Modeling of Time-Correlated Characteristics of Rainfall-Runoff Similarity in the Upstream Red River Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiuli Sang

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We constructed a similarity model (based on Euclidean distance between rainfall and runoff to study time-correlated characteristics of rainfall-runoff similar patterns in the upstream Red River Basin and presented a detailed evaluation of the time correlation of rainfall-runoff similarity. The rainfall-runoff similarity was used to determine the optimum similarity. The results showed that a time-correlated model was found to be capable of predicting the rainfall-runoff similarity in the upstream Red River Basin in a satisfactory way. Both noised and denoised time series by thresholding the wavelet coefficients were applied to verify the accuracy of model. And the corresponding optimum similar sets obtained as the equation solution conditions showed an interesting and stable trend. On the whole, the annual mean similarity presented a gradually rising trend, for quantitatively estimating comprehensive influence of climate change and of human activities on rainfall-runoff similarity.

Impacts of the thawing-freezing process on runoff generation in the Sources Area of the Yellow River on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Xiaoling; Xiang, Xiaohua; Qiu, Chao; Li, Li

2018-06-01

In cold regions, precipitation, air temperature and snow cover significantly influence soil water, heat transfer, the freezing-thawing processes of the active soil layer, and runoff generation. Hydrological regimes of the world's major rivers in cold regions have changed remarkably since the 1960s, but the mechanisms underlying the changes have not yet been fully understood. Using the basic physical processes for water and heat balances and transfers in snow covered soil, a water-heat coupling model for snow cover and its underlying soil layers was established. We found that freezing-thawing processes can affect the thickness of the active layer, storage capacity for liquid water, and subsequent surface runoffs. Based on calculations of thawing-freezing processes, we investigated hydrological processes at Qumalai. The results show that the water-heat coupling model can be used in this region to provide an understanding of the local movement of hydrological regimes.

A simple rainfall-runoff model for the single and long term hydrological performance of green roofs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Locatelli, Luca; Mark, Ole; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

Green roofs are being widely implemented for storm water control and runoff reduction. There is need for incorporating green roofs into urban drainage models in order to evaluate their impact. These models must have low computational costs and fine time resolution. This paper aims to develop...... a model of green roof hydrological performance. A simple conceptual model for the long term and single event hydrological performance of green roofs, shows to be capable of reproducing observed runoff measurements. The model has surface and subsurface storage components representing the overall retention...... capacity of the green roof. The runoff from the system is described by the non-linear reservoir method and the storage capacity of the green roof is continuously re-established by evapotranspiration. Runoff data from a green roof in Denmark are collected and used for parameter calibration....

WEPP and ANN models for simulating soil loss and runoff in a semi-arid Mediterranean region.

Science.gov (United States)

Albaradeyia, Issa; Hani, Azzedine; Shahrour, Isam

2011-09-01

This paper presents the use of both the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) and the artificial neural network (ANN) for the prediction of runoff and soil loss in the central highland mountainous of the Palestinian territories. Analyses show that the soil erosion is highly dependent on both the rainfall depth and the rainfall event duration rather than on the rainfall intensity as mostly mentioned in the literature. The results obtained from the WEPP model for the soil loss and runoff disagree with the field data. The WEPP underestimates both the runoff and soil loss. Analyses conducted with the ANN agree well with the observation. In addition, the global network models developed using the data of all the land use type show a relatively unbiased estimation for both runoff and soil loss. The study showed that the ANN model could be used as a management tool for predicting runoff and soil loss.

Exploring uncertainty and model predictive performance concepts via a modular snowmelt-runoff modeling framework

Science.gov (United States)

Tyler Jon Smith; Lucy Amanda Marshall

2010-01-01

Model selection is an extremely important aspect of many hydrologic modeling studies because of the complexity, variability, and uncertainty that surrounds the current understanding of watershed-scale systems. However, development and implementation of a complete precipitation-runoff modeling framework, from model selection to calibration and uncertainty analysis, are...

Ponds' water balance and runoff of endorheic watersheds in the Sahel

Science.gov (United States)

Gal, Laetitia; Grippa, Manuela; Kergoat, Laurent; Hiernaux, Pierre; Mougin, Eric; Peugeot, Christophe

2015-04-01

The Sahel has been characterized by a severe rainfall deficit since the mid-twentieth century, with extreme droughts in the early seventies and again in the early eighties. These droughts have strongly impacted ecosystems, water availability, fodder resources, and populations living in these areas. However, an increase of surface runoff has been observed during the same period, such as higher "summer discharge" of Sahelian's rivers generating local floods, and a general increase in pond's surface in pastoral areas of central and northern Sahel. This behavior, less rain but more surface runoff is generally referred to as the "Sahelian paradox". Various hypotheses have been put forward to explain this paradoxical situation. The leading role of increase in cropped areas, often cited for cultivated Sahel, does not hold for pastoral areas in central and northern Sahel. Processes such as degradation of vegetation subsequent to the most severe drought events, soils erosion and runoff concentration on shallow soils, which generate most of the water ending up in ponds, seem to play an important role. This still needs to be fully understood and quantified. Our study focuses on a model-based approach to better understand the hydrological changes that affected the Agoufou watershed (Gourma, Mali), typical of the central, non-cultivated Sahel. Like most of the Sahelian basins, the Agoufou watershed is ungauged. Therefore we used indirect data to provide the information required to validate a rainfall-runoff model approach. The pond volume was calculated by combining in-situ water level measurements with pond's surface estimations derived by remote sensing. Using the pond's water balance equation, the variations of pond volume combined to estimates of open water bodies' evaporation and infiltration determined an estimation for the runoff supplying the pond. This estimation highlights a spectacular runoff increase over the last sixty years on the Agoufou watershed. The runoff

A novel approach for runoff modelling in ungauged catchments by Catchment Morphing

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, J.; Han, D.

2017-12-01

Runoff prediction in ungauged catchments has been one of the major challenges in the past decades. However, due to the tremendous heterogeneity of hydrological catchments, obstacles exist in deducing model parameters for ungauged catchments from gauged ones. We propose a novel approach to predict ungauged runoff with Catchment Morphing (CM) using a fully distributed model. CM is defined as by changing the catchment characteristics (area and slope here) from the baseline model built with a gauged catchment to model the ungauged ones. The advantages of CM are: (a) less demand of the similarity between the baseline catchment and the ungauged catchment, (b) less demand of available data, and (c) potentially applicable in varied catchments. A case study on seven catchments in the UK has been used to demonstrate the proposed scheme. To comprehensively examine the CM approach, distributed rainfall inputs are utilised in the model, and fractal landscapes are used to morph the land surface from the baseline model to the target model. The preliminary results demonstrate the feasibility of the approach, which is promising in runoff simulation for ungauged catchments. Clearly, more work beyond this pilot study is needed to explore and develop this new approach further to maturity by the hydrological community.

A dynamic continental runoff routing model applied to the last Northern Hemisphere deglaciation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Goelzer

2012-05-01

Full Text Available We describe and evaluate a dynamical continental runoff routing model for the Northern Hemisphere that calculates the runoff pathways in response to topographic modifications due to changes in ice thickness and isostatic adjustment. The algorithm is based on the steepest gradient method and takes as simplifying assumption that depressions are filled at all times and water drains through the lowest outlet points. It also considers changes in water storage and lake drainage in post-processing mode that become important in the presence of large ice dammed proglacial lakes. Although applicable to other scenarios as well, the model was conceived to study the routing of freshwater fluxes during the last Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. For that specific application we simulated the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets with an existing 3-D thermomechanical ice sheet model, which calculates changes in topography due to changes in ice cover and isostatic adjustment, as well as the evolution of freshwater fluxes resulting from surface ablation, iceberg calving and basal melt. The continental runoff model takes this input, calculates the drainage pathways and routes the freshwater fluxes to the surface grid points of an existing ocean model. This results in a chronology of temporally and spatially varying freshwater fluxes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present day. We analyse the dependence of the runoff routing to grid resolution and parameters of the isostatic adjustment module of the ice sheet model.

Modelling of runoff generation and soil moisture dynamics for hillslopes and micro-catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Bronstert, Axel; Plate, Erich J.

1997-11-01

The modelling of hillslope hydrology is of great importance not only for the reason that all non-plain, i.e. hilly or mountainous, landscapes can be considered as being composed of a mosaic of hillslopes. A hillslope model may also be used for both research purposes and for application-oriented, detailed, hillslope-scale hydrological studies in conjunction with related scientific disciplines such as geotechnics, geo-chemistry and environmental technology. Despite the current limited application of multi-process and multi-dimensional hydrological models (particularly at the hillslope scale), hardly any comprehensive model has been available for operational use. In this paper we introduce a model which considers most of the relevant hillslope hydrological processes. Some recent applications are described which demonstrate its ability to narrow the stated gap in hillslope hydrological modelling. The modelling system accounts for the hydrological processes of interception, evapotranspiration, infiltration, soil-moisture movement (where the flow processes can be modelled in three dimensions), surface runoff, subsurface stormflow and streamflow discharge. The relevant process interactions are also included. Special regard has been given to consideration of state-of-the-art knowledge concerning rapid soilwater flow processes during storm conditions (e.g. macropore infiltration, lateral subsurface stormflow, return flow) and to its transfer to and inclusion within an operational modelling scheme. The model is "physically based" in the sense that its parameters have a physical meaning and can be obtained or derived from field measurements. This somewhat weaker than usual definition of a physical basis implies that some of the sub-models (still) contain empirical components, that the effects of the high spatial and temporal variability found in nature cannot always be expressed within the various physical laws, i.e. that the laws are scale dependent, and that due to

An application of artificial intelligence for rainfall–runoff modeling

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

This study proposes an application of two techniques of artificial intelligence (AI) for rainfall–runoff modeling: the artificial neural networks (ANN) and the evolutionary computation (EC). Two diff- erent ANN techniques, the feed forward back propagation (FFBP) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) methods ...

Comparison of Surface Runoff Generation, and Soil and Nutrient Loss in Kakhk Treated and Representative Watersheds, Khorasan Razavi Province

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Davood Davoodi Moghadam

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Introduction: It is vital to control land degradation, for conserving precious natural treasures. Quantification of runoff production and soil and nutrient loss from wild lands under different managerial systems is one of the scientific and optimal management in agriculture and natural resources, as a major component of sustainable development. Many researches have been conducted to assess the effects of different land uses on soil erosion and runoff generation throughout the globe. Most of which, mainly verified the detrimental effects of human intervention on land degradation. However, limited comprehensive and comparative studies have been conducted to consider the amount of surface runoff generation, and soil and nutrient loss from watersheds with different management patterns viz. untreated and treated small watersheds. Materials and Methods: The present study aimed to compare surface runoff generation,soil and nutrient loss in Kakhk treated and untreated watersheds with an area ca. 222 ha and precipitation of some 243 mm per annum. Other physical and geological characteristics of the paired watersheds were also similar to allow assessing the effects of study measures on soil, water and nutrient losses. The area under consideration has been located in Khorasan Razavi Province in northeastern Iran. The present study was performed in plots with standard size of 22.1 × 1.8 m in treating and representative areas, with three replicates and on the storm basis occurred during early 2011 and mid-2014. The treated plots were covered by biological measures viz. seeding, bunching and exclusre. The study plots have been situated on eastern,western and northern aspects with respective slope of 55, 40 and 40 %. The entire runoff from study plots were collected in a container in 0.5×1×1 m. The sediment concentration was also measured in 2-liter samples taken from the container after a complete mixing of the entire collected runoff. The sample was

Comparison of several climate indices as inputs in modelling of the Baltic Sea runoff

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hanninen, J.; Vuorinen, I. [Turku Univ. (Finland). Archipelaco Research Inst.], e-mail: jari.hanninen@utu.fi

2012-11-01

Using Transfer function (TF) models, we have earlier presented a chain of events between changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their oceanographical and ecological consequences in the Baltic Sea. Here we tested whether other climate indices as inputs would improve TF models, and our understanding of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Besides NAO, the predictors were the Arctic Oscillation (AO), sea-level air pressures at Iceland (SLP), and wind speeds at Hoburg (Gotland). All indices produced good TF models when the total riverine runoff to the Baltic Sea was used as a modelling basis. AO was not applicable in all study areas, showing a delay of about half a year between climate and runoff events, connected with freezing and melting time of ice and snow in the northern catchment area of the Baltic Sea. NAO appeared to be most useful modelling tool as its area of applicability was the widest of the tested indices, and the time lag between climate and runoff events was the shortest. SLP and Hoburg wind speeds showed largely same results as NAO, but with smaller areal applicability. Thus AO and NAO were both mostly contributing to the general understanding of climate control of runoff events in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. (orig.)

Incorporation of groundwater losses and well level data in rainfall-runoff models illustrated using the PDM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. J. Moore

2002-01-01

Full Text Available Intermittent streamflow is a common occurrence in permeable catchments, especially where there are pumped abstractions to water supply. Many rainfall-runoff models are not formulated so as to represent ephemeral streamflow behaviour or to allow for the possibility of negative recharge arising from groundwater pumping. A groundwater model component is formulated here for use in extending existing rainfall-runoff models to accommodate such ephemeral behaviour. Solutions to the Horton-Izzard equation resulting from the conceptual model of groundwater storage are adapted and the form of nonlinear storage extended to accommodate negative inputs, water storage below which outflow ceases, and losses to external springs and underflows below the gauged catchment outlet. The groundwater model component is demonstrated through using it as an extension of the PDM rainfall-runoff model. It is applied to the River Lavant, a catchment in Southern England on the English Chalk, where it successfully simulates the ephemeral streamflow behaviour and flood response together with well level variations. Keywords: groundwater, rainfall-runoff model, ephemeral stream, well level, spring, abstraction

Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models to Predict Runoff Water Quantity and Quality

Science.gov (United States)

Bradford, S. A.; Liang, J.; Li, W.; Murata, T.; Simunek, J.

2017-12-01

Contaminants can be rapidly transported at the soil surface by runoff to surface water bodies. Physically-based models, which are based on the mathematical description of main hydrological processes, are key tools for predicting surface water impairment. Along with physically-based models, data-driven models are becoming increasingly popular for describing the behavior of hydrological and water resources systems since these models can be used to complement or even replace physically based-models. In this presentation we propose a new data-driven model as an alternative to a physically-based overland flow and transport model. First, we have developed a physically-based numerical model to simulate overland flow and contaminant transport (the HYDRUS-1D overland flow module). A large number of numerical simulations were carried out to develop a database containing information about the impact of various input parameters (weather patterns, surface topography, vegetation, soil conditions, contaminants, and best management practices) on runoff water quantity and quality outputs. This database was used to train data-driven models. Three different methods (Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, and Recurrence Neural Networks) were explored to prepare input- output functional relations. Results demonstrate the ability and limitations of machine learning and deep learning models to predict runoff water quantity and quality.

A multi basin SWAT model analysis of runoff and sedimentation in the Blue Nile, Ethiopia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z. M. Easton

2010-10-01

Full Text Available A multi basin analysis of runoff and erosion in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia was conducted to elucidate sources of runoff and sediment. Erosion is arguably the most critical problem in the Blue Nile Basin, as it limits agricultural productivity in Ethiopia, degrades benthos in the Nile, and results in sedimentation of dams in downstream countries. A modified version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was developed to predict runoff and sediment losses from the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin. The model simulates saturation excess runoff from the landscape using a simple daily water balance coupled to a topographic wetness index in ways that are consistent with observed runoff processes in the basin. The spatial distribution of landscape erosion is thus simulated more correctly. The model was parameterized in a nested design for flow at eight and sediment at three locations in the basin. Subbasins ranged in size from 1.3 to 174 000 km², and interestingly, the partitioning of runoff and infiltrating flow could be predicted by topographic information. Model predictions showed reasonable accuracy (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiencies ranged from 0.53–0.92 with measured data across all sites except Kessie, where the water budget could not be closed; however, the timing of flow was well captured. Runoff losses increased with rainfall during the monsoonal season and were greatest from areas with shallow soils and large contributing areas. Analysis of model results indicate that upland landscape erosion dominated sediment delivery to the main stem of the Blue Nile in the early part of the growing season when tillage occurs and before the soil was wetted up and plant cover was established. Once plant cover was established in mid August landscape erosion was negligible and sediment export was dominated by channel processes and re-suspension of landscape sediment deposited early in the growing season. These results imply that targeting small

Development of urban runoff model FFC-QUAL for first-flush water-quality analysis in urban drainage basins.

Science.gov (United States)

Hur, Sungchul; Nam, Kisung; Kim, Jungsoo; Kwak, Changjae

2018-01-01

An urban runoff model that is able to compute the runoff, the pollutant loadings, and the concentrations of water-quality constituents in urban drainages during the first flush was developed. This model, which is referred to as FFC-QUAL, was modified from the existing ILLUDAS model and added for use during the water-quality analysis process for dry and rainy periods. For the dry period, the specifications of the coefficients for the discharge and water quality were used. During rainfall, we used the Clark and time-area methods for the runoff analyses of pervious and impervious areas to consider the effects of the subbasin shape; moreover, four pollutant accumulation methods and the washoff equation for computing the water quality each time were used. According to the verification results, FFC-QUAL provides generally similar output as the measured data for the peak flow, total runoff volume, total loadings, peak concentration, and time of peak concentration for three rainfall events in the Gunja subbasin. In comparison with the ILLUDAS, SWMM, and MOUSE models, there is little difference between these models and the model developed in this study. The proposed model should be useful in urban watersheds because of its simplicity and its capacity to model common pollutants (e.g., biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, Escherichia coli, suspended solids, and total nitrogen and phosphorous) in runoff. The proposed model can also be used in design studies to determine how changes in infrastructure will affect the runoff and pollution loads. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Using artificial neural network approach for modelling rainfall–runoff ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Department of Civil Engineering, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Neipu Hsiang,. Pingtung ... study, a model for estimating runoff by using rainfall data from a river basin is developed and a neural ... For example, 2009 typhoon Morakot in Pingtung ... Tokar and Markus (2000) applied ANN to predict.

Improving runoff risk estimates: Formulating runoff as a bivariate process using the SCS curve number method

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, Stephen B.; Walter, M. Todd

2009-03-01

The Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) method is widely used to predict storm runoff for hydraulic design purposes, such as sizing culverts and detention basins. As traditionally used, the probability of calculated runoff is equated to the probability of the causative rainfall event, an assumption that fails to account for the influence of variations in soil moisture on runoff generation. We propose a modification to the SCS-CN method that explicitly incorporates rainfall return periods and the frequency of different soil moisture states to quantify storm runoff risks. Soil moisture status is assumed to be correlated to stream base flow. Fundamentally, this approach treats runoff as the outcome of a bivariate process instead of dictating a 1:1 relationship between causative rainfall and resulting runoff volumes. Using data from the Fall Creek watershed in western New York and the headwaters of the French Broad River in the mountains of North Carolina, we show that our modified SCS-CN method improves frequency discharge predictions in medium-sized watersheds in the eastern United States in comparison to the traditional application of the method.

Innovative use of soft data for the validation of a rainfall-runoff model forced by remote sensing data

Science.gov (United States)

van Emmerik, Tim; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Mulder, Gert

2013-04-01

The Chamcar Bei catchment in southern Cambodia is a typical ungauged basin. Neither meteorological data or discharge measurements are available. In this catchment, local farmers are highly dependent on the irrigation system. However, due to the unreliability of the water supply, it was required to make a hydrological model, with which further improvements of the irrigation system could be planned. First, we used knowledge generated in the IAHS decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) to estimate the annual water balance of the Chamcar Bei catchment. Next, using remotely sensed precipitation, vegetation, elevation and transpiration data, a monthly rainfall-runoff model has been developed. The rainfall-runoff model was linked to the irrigation system reservoir, which allowed to validate the model based on soft data such as historical knowledge of the reservoir water level and groundwater levels visible in wells. This study shows that combining existing remote sensing data and soft ground data can lead to useful modeling results. The approach presented in this study can be applied in other ungauged basins, which can be extremely helpful in managing water resources in developing countries.

ISLSCP II UNH/GRDC Composite Monthly Runoff

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The University of New Hampshire (UNH)/Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) composite runoff data combines simulated water balance model runoff estimates...

Predicting Surface Runoff from Catchment to Large Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongxia Li

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Predicting surface runoff from catchment to large region is a fundamental and challenging task in hydrology. This paper presents a comprehensive review for various studies conducted for improving runoff predictions from catchment to large region in the last several decades. This review summarizes the well-established methods and discusses some promising approaches from the following four research fields: (1 modeling catchment, regional and global runoff using lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff models, distributed hydrological models, and land surface models, (2 parameterizing hydrological models in ungauged catchments, (3 improving hydrological model structure, and (4 using new remote sensing precipitation data.

Modelling runoff and glacier melt in the Hunza basin in northern Pakistan using satellite remote sensing techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shafiq, M.

2011-01-01

The glaciers in western Karakoram are important for freshwater supply in the rivers of Pakistan. Global warming influences the future water supply from glaciers. In order to study the hydrological conditions and possible impacts of climate change, runoff simulations are performed for the Hunza basin. The hydrological modelling system SRM (Snowmelt Runoff Model) is customized and applied to the Hunza basin. Various data obtained from satellite remote sensing imagery and meteorological stations in the study area are processed, prepared and used as input to SRM. For runoff simulations the basin is divided into five sub-basins. The (sub-) basins are defined by the hydrological response units (HRU) based on the elevation zones and land-cover types. The spatially distributed data are aggregated HRU-wise as input for the model simulations. The energy available for snow and glacier melt is parameterized in SRM by degree day factors which are defined separately for seasonal snow, ice and debris covered glaciers. The model is calibrated for the Hunza basin using the meteorological and remote sensing data from years 2002 and 2003. The daily runoff is simulated and compared with the measured discharge data obtained from the power company. The Nash-Sutcliffe correlation coefficient of simulated versus measured runoff data is 0.87 for year 2002 and 0.96 for year 2003 which indicates a good agreement. An estimation of mass balance of Baltoro glacier is made using the meteorological data from Shigar station applying the hydrological method to estimate accumulation and melt. Based on these data is found that Baltoro glacier has slightly negative mass balance. The ablation rates of debris covered parts of Baltoro glacier at 4150 m elevation are estimated to be between 3 and 4 cm per day. However, the uncertainty in mass balance modelling is high due to poor knowledge of accumulation inferred by spatial extrapolation from station data.Keeping the glacier area unchanged, for the 2002

Automated Measurement for Sensitivity Analysis of Runoff-Sediment Load at Varying Surface Gradients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Imanogor P.A.

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Direct measurement of surface runoff is often associated with errors and inaccuracies which results to unreliable hydrological data. An automatic Runoff-meter using tipping buckets arrangement calibrated to tip 0.14 liter of runoff water per tip with an accuracy of ± 0.001 litre was used to measure surface runoff from a steel bounded soil tray of dimension (1200 mm X 900 mm X 260 mm filled with sand loamy to the depth of 130 mm and inclined at angle (0 0 , 5 0 ,12 0 and 15 0 horizontal to the instrument. The effect of varying angles of inclination on runoff intensity, sediment loss rate and sediment loss is significant at 5 % confidence level, while surface runoff is not significant at 5 % confidence level. Total highest sediment loss of 458.2 g and 313.4 g were observed at angle 15 0 and 12 0 respectively. Total surface runoff of 361.5 mm and 445.8 mm were generated at inclined angle of 0 0 and 5 0 , while at angle 12 0 and 15 0 , 564.3 mm and 590.0 mm of surface runoff were generated. In addition, runoff intensity and sediment loss rate were highest at angle 15 0 , while the lowest values of 1.5mm/min and 5.43 g/min were obtained at angle of inclination 5 0 . The results showed that strong relationship existed among the hydrological variables as a result of subjecting the steel bounded soil tray to different angles of inclination. Such results would provide useful data for the running of physics-based deterministic model of surface runoff and erosion which will be useful for the design of hydrological structures, land use planning and management.

Assessing the ability of operational snow models to predict snowmelt runoff extremes (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, A. W.; Restrepo, P. J.; Clark, M. P.

2013-12-01

In the western US, the snow accumulation and melt cycle of winter and spring plays a critical role in the region's water management strategies. Consequently, the ability to predict snowmelt runoff at time scales from days to seasons is a key input for decisions in reservoir management, whether for avoiding flood hazards or supporting environmental flows through the scheduling of releases in spring, or for allocating releases for multi-state water distribution in dry seasons of year (using reservoir systems to provide an invaluable buffer for many sectors against drought). Runoff forecasts thus have important benefits at both wet and dry extremes of the climatological spectrum. The importance of the prediction of the snow cycle motivates an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the US's central operational snow model, SNOW17, in contrast to process-modeling alternatives, as they relate to simulating observed snowmelt variability and extremes. To this end, we use a flexible modeling approach that enables an investigation of different choices in model structure, including model physics, parameterization and degree of spatiotemporal discretization. We draw from examples of recent extreme events in western US watersheds and an overall assessment of retrospective model performance to identify fruitful avenues for advancing the modeling basis for the operational prediction of snow-related runoff extremes.

Daily rainfall-runoff modelling by neural networks in semi-arid zone ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This research work will allow checking efficiency of formal neural networks for flows' modelling of wadi Ouahrane's basin from rainfall-runoff relation which is non-linear. Two models of neural networks were optimized through supervised learning and compared in order to achieve this goal, the first model with input rain, and ...

A characterization of Greenland Ice Sheet surface melt and runoff in contemporary reanalyses and a regional climate model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard eCullather

2016-02-01

Full Text Available For the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS, large-scale melt area has increased in recent years and is detectable via remote sensing, but its relation to runoff is not known. Historical, modeled melt area and runoff from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-Replay, the Interim Re-Analysis of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-I, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR, the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR, and the Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR are examined. These sources compare favorably with satellite-derived estimates of surface melt area for the period 2000-2012. Spatially, the models markedly disagree on the number of melt days in the interior of the southern part of the ice sheet, and on the extent of persistent melt areas in the northeastern GrIS. Temporally, the models agree on the mean seasonality of daily surface melt and on the timing of large-scale melt events in 2012. In contrast, the models disagree on the amount, seasonality, spatial distribution, and temporal variability of runoff. As compared to global reanalyses, time series from MAR indicate a lower correlation between runoff and melt area (r2 = 0.805. Runoff in MAR is much larger in the second half of the melt season for all drainage basins, while the ASR indicates larger runoff in the first half of the year. This difference in seasonality for the MAR and to an extent for the ASR provide a hysteresis in the relation between runoff and melt area, which is not found in the other models. The comparison points to a need for reliable observations of surface runoff.

Estimating Runoff From Roadcuts With a Distributed Hydrologic Model

Science.gov (United States)

Cuhaciyan, C.; Luce, C.; Voisin, N.; Lettenmaier, D.; Black, T.

2008-12-01

Roads can have a substantial effect on hydrologic patterns of forested watersheds; the most noteworthy being the resurfacing of shallow groundwater at roadcuts. The influence of roads on hydrology has compelled hydrologists to include water routing and storage routines in rainfall-runoff models, such as those in the Distributed Hydrologic Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM). We tested the ability of DHSVM to match observed runoff in roadcuts of a watershed in the Coast Range of Oregon. Eight roadcuts were instrumented using large tipping bucket gauges designed to capture only the water entering the roadside ditch from an 80-m long roadcut. The roadcuts were categorized by the topography of the upstream hillside as either swale, planar, or ridge. The simulation was run from December 2002 to December 2003 at a relatively fine spatial resolution (10-m). Average observed soil depths are 1.8-m across the watershed, below which there lies deep and highly weathered sandstone. DHSVM was designed for relatively impermeable bedrock and shallow soils; therefore it does not provide a mechanism for deep groundwater movement and storage. In the geologic setting of the study basin, however, water is routed through the sandstone allowing water to pass under roads through the parent material. For this reason a uniformly deep soil of 6.5-m with a decreased decay in conductivity with depth was used in the model to allow water to be routed beneath roadcuts that are up to 5.5-m in height. Up to three, typically shallow, soil layers can be modeled in DHSVM. We used the lowest of the three soil layers to mimic the hydraulically-well-connected sandstone exposed at deeper roadcuts. The model was calibrated against observed discharge at the outlet of the watershed. While model results closely matched the observed hydrograph at the watershed outlet, simulated runoff at an upstream gauge and the roadside ditches were varied and often higher than those observed in the field. The timing of the field

The sensitivity of catchment runoff models to rainfall data at different spatial scales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. A. Bell

2000-01-01

Full Text Available The sensitivity of catchment runoff models to rainfall is investigated at a variety of spatial scales using data from a dense raingauge network and weather radar. These data form part of the HYREX (HYdrological Radar EXperiment dataset. They encompass records from 49 raingauges over the 135 km2 Brue catchment in south-west England together with 2 and 5 km grid-square radar data. Separate rainfall time-series for the radar and raingauge data are constructed on 2, 5 and 10 km grids, and as catchment average values, at a 15 minute time-step. The sensitivity of the catchment runoff models to these grid scales of input data is evaluated on selected convective and stratiform rainfall events. Each rainfall time-series is used to produce an ensemble of modelled hydrographs in order to investigate this sensitivity. The distributed model is shown to be sensitive to the locations of the raingauges within the catchment and hence to the spatial variability of rainfall over the catchment. Runoff sensitivity is strongest during convective rainfall when a broader spread of modelled hydrographs results, with twice the variability of that arising from stratiform rain. Sensitivity to rainfall data and model resolution is explored and, surprisingly, best performance is obtained using a lower resolution of rainfall data and model. Results from the distributed catchment model, the Simple Grid Model, are compared with those obtained from a lumped model, the PDM. Performance from the distributed model is found to be only marginally better during stratiform rain (R2 of 0.922 compared to 0.911 but significantly better during convective rain (R2 of 0.953 compared to 0.909. The improved performance from the distributed model can, in part, be accredited to the excellence of the dense raingauge network which would not be the norm for operational flood warning systems. In the final part of the paper, the effect of rainfall resolution on the performance of the 2 km distributed

Runoff of small rocky headwater catchments: Field observations and hydrological modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Gregoretti, C.; Degetto, M.; Bernard, M.; Crucil, G.; Pimazzoni, A.; De Vido, G.; Berti, M.; Simoni, A.; Lanzoni, S.

2016-10-01

In dolomitic headwater catchments, intense rainstorms of short duration produce runoff discharges that often trigger debris flows on the scree slopes at the base of rock cliffs. In order to measure these discharges, we placed a measuring facility at the outlet (elevation 1770 m a.s.l.) of a small, rocky headwater catchment (area ˜0.032 km2, average slope ˜320%) located in the Venetian Dolomites (North Eastern Italian Alps). The facility consists of an approximately rectangular basin, ending with a sharp-crested weir. Six runoff events were recorded in the period 2011-2014, providing a unique opportunity for characterizing the hydrological response of the catchment. The measured hydrographs display impulsive shapes, with an abrupt raise up to the peak, followed by a rapidly decreasing tail, until a nearly constant plateau is eventually reached. This behavior can be simulated by means of a distributed hydrological model if the excess rainfall is determined accurately. We show that using the Soil Conservation Service Curve-Number (SCS-CN) method and assuming a constant routing velocity invariably results in an underestimated peak flow and a delayed peak time. A satisfactory prediction of the impulsive hydrograph shape, including peak value and timing, is obtained only by combining the SCS-CN procedure with a simplified version of the Horton equation, and simulating runoff routing along the channel network through a matched diffusivity kinematic wave model. The robustness of the proposed methodology is tested through a comparison between simulated and observed timings of runoff or debris flow occurrence in two neighboring alpine basins.

Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ji-Woo Lee

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM, namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs, Regional Model Program (RMP. The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070 simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

Integrated Landsat Image Analysis and Hydrologic Modeling to Detect Impacts of 25-Year Land-Cover Change on Surface Runoff in a Philippine Watershed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enrico Paringit

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Landsat MSS and ETM+ images were analyzed to detect 25-year land-cover change (1976–2001 in the critical Taguibo Watershed in Mindanao Island, Southern Philippines. This watershed has experienced historical modifications of its land-cover due to the presence of logging industries in the 1950s, and continuous deforestation due to illegal logging and slash-and-burn agriculture in the present time. To estimate the impacts of land-cover change on watershed runoff, land-cover information derived from the Landsat images was utilized to parameterize a GIS-based hydrologic model. The model was then calibrated with field-measured discharge data and used to simulate the responses of the watershed in its year 2001 and year 1976 land-cover conditions. The availability of land-cover information on the most recent state of the watershed from the Landsat ETM+ image made it possible to locate areas for rehabilitation such as barren and logged-over areas. We then created a “rehabilitated” land-cover condition map of the watershed (re-forestation of logged-over areas and agro-forestation of barren areas and used it to parameterize the model and predict the runoff responses of the watershed. Model results showed that changes in land-cover from 1976 to 2001 were directly related to the significant increase in surface runoff. Runoff predictions showed that a full rehabilitation of the watershed, especially in barren and logged-over areas, will be likely to reduce the generation of a huge volume of runoff during rainfall events. The results of this study have demonstrated the usefulness of multi-temporal Landsat images in detecting land-cover change, in identifying areas for rehabilitation, and in evaluating rehabilitation strategies for management of tropical watersheds through its use in hydrologic modeling.

Surface runoff in flat terrain: How field topography and runoff generating processes control hydrological connectivity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Appels, W.M.; Bogaart, P.W.; Bogaart, P.W.; Zee, van der S.E.A.T.M.

2016-01-01

In flat lowland agricultural catchments in temperate climate zones with highly permeable sandy soils, surface runoff is a rare process with a large impact on the redistribution of sediments and solutes and stream water quality. We examine hydrological data obtained on two field sites in the

Urban runoff forecasting with ensemble weather predictions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Jonas Wied; Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Vezzaro, Luca

This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice.......This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice....

Assimilating satellite soil moisture into rainfall-runoff modelling: towards a systematic study

Science.gov (United States)

Massari, Christian; Tarpanelli, Angelica; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

2015-04-01

Soil moisture is the main factor for the repartition of the mass and energy fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere thus playing a fundamental role in the hydrological cycle. Indeed, soil moisture represents the initial condition of rainfall-runoff modelling that determines the flood response of a catchment. Different initial soil moisture conditions can discriminate between catastrophic and minor effects of a given rainfall event. Therefore, improving the estimation of initial soil moisture conditions will reduce uncertainties in early warning flood forecasting models addressing the mitigation of flood hazard. In recent years, satellite soil moisture products have become available with fine spatial-temporal resolution and a good accuracy. Therefore, a number of studies have been published in which the impact of the assimilation of satellite soil moisture data into rainfall-runoff modelling is investigated. Unfortunately, data assimilation involves a series of assumptions and choices that significantly affect the final result. Given a satellite soil moisture observation, a rainfall-runoff model and a data assimilation technique, an improvement or a deterioration of discharge predictions can be obtained depending on the choices made in the data assimilation procedure. Consequently, large discrepancies have been obtained in the studies published so far likely due to the differences in the implementation of the data assimilation technique. On this basis, a comprehensive and robust procedure for the assimilation of satellite soil moisture data into rainfall-runoff modelling is developed here and applied to six subcatchment of the Upper Tiber River Basin for which high-quality hydrometeorological hourly observations are available in the period 1989-2013. The satellite soil moisture product used in this study is obtained from the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) onboard Metop-A satellite and it is available since 2007. The MISDc ("Modello Idrologico Semi

Initial conditions of urban permeable surfaces in rainfall-runoff models using Horton’s infiltration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Davidsen, Steffen; Löwe, Roland; Høegh Ravn, Nanna

2017-01-01

Infiltration is a key process controlling runoff, but varies depending on antecedent conditions. This study provides estimates on initial conditions for urban permeable surfaces via continuous simulation of the infiltration capacity using historical rain data. An analysis of historical rainfall...... records show that accumulated rainfall prior to large rain events does not depend on the return period of the event. Using an infiltration-runoff model we found that for a typical large rain storm, antecedent conditions in general lead to reduced infiltration capacity both for sandy and clayey soils...... and that there is substantial runoff for return periods above 1–10 years....

Urban nonpoint source pollution buildup and washoff models for simulating storm runoff quality in the Los Angeles County

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Long; Wei Jiahua; Huang Yuefei; Wang Guangqian; Maqsood, Imran

2011-01-01

Many urban nonpoint source pollution models utilize pollutant buildup and washoff functions to simulate storm runoff quality of urban catchments. In this paper, two urban pollutant washoff load models are derived using pollutant buildup and washoff functions. The first model assumes that there is no residual pollutant after a storm event while the second one assumes that there is always residual pollutant after each storm event. The developed models are calibrated and verified with observed data from an urban catchment in the Los Angeles County. The application results show that the developed model with consideration of residual pollutant is more capable of simulating nonpoint source pollution from urban storm runoff than that without consideration of residual pollutant. For the study area, residual pollutant should be considered in pollutant buildup and washoff functions for simulating urban nonpoint source pollution when the total runoff volume is less than 30 mm. - Highlights: → An improved urban NPS model was developed. → It performs well in areas where storm events have great temporal variation. → Threshold of total runoff volume for ignoring residual pollutant was determined. - An improved urban NPS model was developed. Threshold of total runoff volume for ignoring residual pollutant was determined.

Impacts of the active layer on runoff in an upland permafrost basin, northern Tibetan Plateau.

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Tanguang; Zhang, Tingjun; Guo, Hong; Hu, Yuantao; Shang, Jianguo; Zhang, Yulan

2018-01-01

The paucity of studies on permafrost runoff generation processes, especially in mountain permafrost, constrains the understanding of permafrost hydrology and prediction of hydrological responses to permafrost degradation. This study investigated runoff generation processes, in addition to the contribution of summer thaw depth, soil temperature, soil moisture, and precipitation to streamflow in a small upland permafrost basin in the northern Tibetan Plateau. Results indicated that the thawing period and the duration of the zero-curtain were longer in permafrost of the northern Tibetan Plateau than in the Arctic. Limited snowmelt delayed the initiation of surface runoff in the peat permafrost in the study area. The runoff displayed intermittent generation, with the duration of most runoff events lasting less than 24 h. Precipitation without runoff generation was generally correlated with lower soil moisture conditions. Combined analysis suggested runoff generation in this region was controlled by soil temperature, thaw depth, precipitation frequency and amount, and antecedent soil moisture. This study serves as an important baseline to evaluate future environmental changes on the Tibetan Plateau.

Simulated Impact of Glacial Runoff on CO2 Uptake in the Gulf of Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Pilcher, Darren J.; Siedlecki, Samantha A.; Hermann, Albert J.; Coyle, Kenneth O.; Mathis, Jeremy T.; Evans, Wiley

2018-01-01

The Gulf of Alaska (GOA) receives substantial summer freshwater runoff from glacial meltwater. The alkalinity of this runoff is highly dependent on the glacial source and can modify the coastal carbon cycle. We use a regional ocean biogeochemical model to simulate CO2 uptake in the GOA under different alkalinity-loading scenarios. The GOA is identified as a current net sink of carbon, though low-alkalinity tidewater glacial runoff suppresses summer coastal carbon uptake. Our model shows that increasing the alkalinity generates an increase in annual CO2 uptake of 1.9-2.7 TgC/yr. This transition is comparable to a projected change in glacial runoff composition (i.e., from tidewater to land-terminating) due to continued climate warming. Our results demonstrate an important local carbon-climate feedback that can significantly increase coastal carbon uptake via enhanced air-sea exchange, with potential implications to the coastal ecosystems in glaciated areas around the world.

Investigation of the direct runoff generation mechanism for the analysis of the SCS-CN method applicability to a partial area experimental watershed

OpenAIRE

Soulis, K. X.; Valiantzas, J. D.; Dercas, N.; Londra, P. A.

2009-01-01

The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method is widely used for predicting direct runoff volume for a given rainfall event. The applicability of the SCS-CN method and the direct runoff generation mechanism were thoroughly analysed in a Mediterranean experimental watershed in Greece. The region is characterized by a Mediterranean semi-arid climate. A detailed land cover and soil survey using remote sensing and GIS techniques, showed that the watershed is dominated by coarse soils...

Improved rainfall-runoff approach using lumped and conceptual modelling

OpenAIRE

Durán Barroso, Pablo

2016-01-01

Rainfall-runoff quantification is one of the most important tasks in both engineering and watershed management as it allows to identify, forecast and explain watershed response. The division of the rainfall depth between infiltration and runoff has a high level of complexity due to the spatial heterogeneity in real catchments and the temporal precipitation variability, which provide scale effects on the overall runoff volumes. The Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number (NRCS CN) ...

Assessing the benefit of snow data assimilation for runoff modeling in Alpine catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Griessinger, Nena; Seibert, Jan; Magnusson, Jan; Jonas, Tobias

2016-09-01

In Alpine catchments, snowmelt is often a major contribution to runoff. Therefore, modeling snow processes is important when concerned with flood or drought forecasting, reservoir operation and inland waterway management. In this study, we address the question of how sensitive hydrological models are to the representation of snow cover dynamics and whether the performance of a hydrological model can be enhanced by integrating data from a dedicated external snow monitoring system. As a framework for our tests we have used the hydrological model HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) in the version HBV-light, which has been applied in many hydrological studies and is also in use for operational purposes. While HBV originally follows a temperature-index approach with time-invariant calibrated degree-day factors to represent snowmelt, in this study the HBV model was modified to use snowmelt time series from an external and spatially distributed snow model as model input. The external snow model integrates three-dimensional sequential assimilation of snow monitoring data with a snowmelt model, which is also based on the temperature-index approach but uses a time-variant degree-day factor. The following three variations of this external snow model were applied: (a) the full model with assimilation of observational snow data from a dense monitoring network, (b) the same snow model but with data assimilation switched off and (c) a downgraded version of the same snow model representing snowmelt with a time-invariant degree-day factor. Model runs were conducted for 20 catchments at different elevations within Switzerland for 15 years. Our results show that at low and mid-elevations the performance of the runoff simulations did not vary considerably with the snow model version chosen. At higher elevations, however, best performance in terms of simulated runoff was obtained when using the snowmelt time series from the snow model, which utilized data assimilation

Modeling runoff and erosion risk in a~small steep cultivated watershed using different data sources: from on-site measurements to farmers' perceptions

Science.gov (United States)

Auvet, B.; Lidon, B.; Kartiwa, B.; Le Bissonnais, Y.; Poussin, J.-C.

2015-09-01

This paper presents an approach to model runoff and erosion risk in a context of data scarcity, whereas the majority of available models require large quantities of physical data that are frequently not accessible. To overcome this problem, our approach uses different sources of data, particularly on agricultural practices (tillage and land cover) and farmers' perceptions of runoff and erosion. The model was developed on a small (5 ha) cultivated watershed characterized by extreme conditions (slopes of up to 55 %, extreme rainfall events) on the Merapi volcano in Indonesia. Runoff was modelled using two versions of STREAM. First, a lumped version was used to determine the global parameters of the watershed. Second, a distributed version used three parameters for the production of runoff (slope, land cover and roughness), a precise DEM, and the position of waterways for runoff distribution. This information was derived from field observations and interviews with farmers. Both surface runoff models accurately reproduced runoff at the outlet. However, the distributed model (Nash-Sutcliffe = 0.94) was more accurate than the adjusted lumped model (N-S = 0.85), especially for the smallest and biggest runoff events, and produced accurate spatial distribution of runoff production and concentration. Different types of erosion processes (landslides, linear inter-ridge erosion, linear erosion in main waterways) were modelled as a combination of a hazard map (the spatial distribution of runoff/infiltration volume provided by the distributed model), and a susceptibility map combining slope, land cover and tillage, derived from in situ observations and interviews with farmers. Each erosion risk map gives a spatial representation of the different erosion processes including risk intensities and frequencies that were validated by the farmers and by in situ observations. Maps of erosion risk confirmed the impact of the concentration of runoff, the high susceptibility of long steep

Transfer of spatio-temporal multifractal properties of rainfall to simulated surface runoff

Science.gov (United States)

Gires, Auguste; Giangola-Murzyn, Agathe; Richard, Julien; Abbes, Jean-Baptiste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Willinger, Bernard; Cardinal, Hervé; Thouvenot, Thomas

2014-05-01

In this paper we suggest to use scaling laws and more specifically Universal Multifractals (UM) to analyse in a spatio-temporal framework both the radar rainfall and the simulated surface runoff. Such tools have been extensively used to analyse and simulate geophysical fields extremely variable over wide range of spatio-temporal scales such as rainfall, but have not often if ever been applied to surface runoff. Such novel combined analysis helps to improve the understanding of the rainfall-runoff relationship. Two catchments of the chair "Hydrology for resilient cities" sponsored by Véolia, and of the European Interreg IV RainGain project are used. They are both located in the Paris area: a 144 ha flat urban area in the Seine-Saint-Denis County, and a 250 ha urban area with a significant portion of forest located on a steep hillside of the Bièvre River. A fully distributed urban hydrological model currently under development called Multi-Hydro is implemented to represent the catchments response. It consists in an interacting core between open source software packages, each of them representing a portion of the water cycle in urban environment. The fully distributed model is tested with pixels of size 5, 10 and 20 m. In a first step the model is validated for three rainfall events that occurred in 2010 and 2011, for which the Météo-France radar mosaic with a resolution of 1 km in space and 5 min in time is available. These events generated significant surface runoff and some local flooding. The sensitivity of the model to the rainfall resolution is briefly checked by stochastically generating an ensemble of realistic downscaled rainfall fields (obtained by continuing the underlying cascade process which is observed on the available range of scales) and inputting them into the model. The impact is significant on both the simulated sewer flow and surface runoff. Then rainfall fields are generated with the help of discrete multifractal cascades and inputted in the

Episodic runoff generation at Central European headwater catchments studied using water isotope concentration signals

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Votrubová, J.; Dohnal, M.; Vogel, T.; Šanda, M.; Tesař, Miroslav

2017-01-01

Roč. 65, č. 2 (2017), s. 114-122 ISSN 0042-790X Grant - others:Grantová agentura České republiky (GA ČR)(CZ) GC14-15201J Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : O isotope * headwater catchment runoff * subsurface runoff * tracer * rainfall-runoff episodes Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology OBOR OECD: Hydrology Impact factor: 1.654, year: 2016

A GIS-based approach for identifying potential runoff harvesting sites in the Thukela River basin, South Africa

Science.gov (United States)

de Winnaar, G.; Jewitt, G. P. W.; Horan, M.

Water scarce countries such as South Africa are subject to various hydrological constraints which can often be attributed to poor rainfall partitioning, particularly within resource poor farming communities that are reliant on rainfed agriculture. Recent initiatives to address this have shifted focus to explore more efficient alternatives to water supply and the recognition of numerous opportunities to implement runoff harvesting as a means to supplement water availability. However, increasing the implementation of runoff harvesting, without encountering unintended impacts on downstream hydrological and ecological systems, requires better understanding of the hydrologic and environmental impacts at catchment scale. In this paper the representation of spatial variations in landscape characteristics such as soil, land use, rainfall and slope information is shown to be an important step in identifying potential runoff harvesting sites, after which modelling the hydrological response in catchments where extensive runoff harvesting is being considered can be performed and likely impacts assessed. Geographic information systems (GIS) was utilised as an integrating tool to store, analyse and manage spatial information and when linked to hydrological response models, provided a rational means to facilitate decision making by providing catchment level identification, planning and assessment of runoff harvesting sites as illustrated by a case study at the Potshini catchment, a small sub-catchment in the Thukela River basin, South Africa. Through the linked GIS, potential runoff harvesting sites are identified relative to areas that concentrate runoff and where the stored water will be appropriately distributed. Based on GIS analysis it was found that 17% percent of the Potshini catchment area has a high potential for generating surface runoff, whereas an analysis of all factors which influence the location of such systems, shows that 18% is highly suitable for runoff

Surface Runoff Estimation Using SMOS Observations, Rain-gauge Measurements and Satellite Precipitation Estimations. Comparison with Model Predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia Leal, Julio A.; Lopez-Baeza, Ernesto; Khodayar, Samiro; Estrela, Teodoro; Fidalgo, Arancha; Gabaldo, Onofre; Kuligowski, Robert; Herrera, Eddy

Surface runoff is defined as the amount of water that originates from precipitation, does not infiltrates due to soil saturation and therefore circulates over the surface. A good estimation of runoff is useful for the design of draining systems, structures for flood control and soil utilisation. For runoff estimation there exist different methods such as (i) rational method, (ii) isochrone method, (iii) triangular hydrograph, (iv) non-dimensional SCS hydrograph, (v) Temez hydrograph, (vi) kinematic wave model, represented by the dynamics and kinematics equations for a uniforme precipitation regime, and (vii) SCS-CN (Soil Conservation Service Curve Number) model. This work presents a way of estimating precipitation runoff through the SCS-CN model, using SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) mission soil moisture observations and rain-gauge measurements, as well as satellite precipitation estimations. The area of application is the Jucar River Basin Authority area where one of the objectives is to develop the SCS-CN model in a spatial way. The results were compared to simulations performed with the 7-km COSMO-CLM (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling, COSMO model in CLimate Mode) model. The use of SMOS soil moisture as input to the COSMO-CLM model will certainly improve model simulations.

Coupling machine learning with mechanistic models to study runoff production and river flow at the hillslope scale

Science.gov (United States)

Marçais, J.; Gupta, H. V.; De Dreuzy, J. R.; Troch, P. A. A.

2016-12-01

Geomorphological structure and geological heterogeneity of hillslopes are major controls on runoff responses. The diversity of hillslopes (morphological shapes and geological structures) on one hand, and the highly non linear runoff mechanism response on the other hand, make it difficult to transpose what has been learnt at one specific hillslope to another. Therefore, making reliable predictions on runoff appearance or river flow for a given hillslope is a challenge. Applying a classic model calibration (based on inverse problems technique) requires doing it for each specific hillslope and having some data available for calibration. When applied to thousands of cases it cannot always be promoted. Here we propose a novel modeling framework based on coupling process based models with data based approach. First we develop a mechanistic model, based on hillslope storage Boussinesq equations (Troch et al. 2003), able to model non linear runoff responses to rainfall at the hillslope scale. Second we set up a model database, representing thousands of non calibrated simulations. These simulations investigate different hillslope shapes (real ones obtained by analyzing 5m digital elevation model of Brittany and synthetic ones), different hillslope geological structures (i.e. different parametrizations) and different hydrologic forcing terms (i.e. different infiltration chronicles). Then, we use this model library to train a machine learning model on this physically based database. Machine learning model performance is then assessed by a classic validating phase (testing it on new hillslopes and comparing machine learning with mechanistic outputs). Finally we use this machine learning model to learn what are the hillslope properties controlling runoffs. This methodology will be further tested combining synthetic datasets with real ones.

Long term high resolution rainfall runoff observations for improved water balance uncertainty and database QA-QC in the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed.

Science.gov (United States)

Bitew, M. M.; Goodrich, D. C.; Demaria, E.; Heilman, P.; Kautz, M. A.

2017-12-01

Walnut Gulch is a semi-arid environment experimental watershed and Long Term Agro-ecosystem Research (LTAR) site managed by USDA-ARS Southwest Watershed Research Center for which high-resolution long-term hydro-climatic data are available across its 150 km2 drainage area. In this study, we present the analysis of 50 years of continuous hourly rainfall data to evaluate runoff control and generation processes for improving the QA-QC plans of Walnut Gulch to create high-quality data set that is critical for reducing water balance uncertainties. Multiple linear regression models were developed to relate rainfall properties, runoff characteristics and watershed properties. The rainfall properties were summarized to event based total depth, maximum intensity, duration, the location of the storm center with respect to the outlet, and storm size normalized to watershed area. We evaluated the interaction between the runoff and rainfall and runoff as antecedent moisture condition (AMC), antecedent runoff condition (ARC) and, runoff depth and duration for each rainfall events. We summarized each of the watershed properties such as contributing area, slope, shape, channel length, stream density, channel flow area, and percent of the area of retention stock ponds for each of the nested catchments in Walnut Gulch. The evaluation of the model using basic and categorical statistics showed good predictive skill throughout the watersheds. The model produced correlation coefficients ranging from 0.4-0.94, Nash efficiency coefficients up to 0.77, and Kling-Gupta coefficients ranging from 0.4 to 0.98. The model predicted 92% of all runoff generations and 98% of no-runoff across all sub-watersheds in Walnut Gulch. The regression model also indicated good potential to complement the QA-QC procedures in place for Walnut Gulch dataset publications developed over the years since the 1960s through identification of inconsistencies in rainfall and runoff relations.

Spatial and temporal variability of runoff and streamflow generation within and among headwater catchments: a combined hydrometric and stable isotope approach

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, N. K.; Emanuel, R. E.; McGlynn, B. L.

2012-12-01

The combined influence of topography and vegetation on runoff generation and streamflow in headwater catchments remains unclear. We aim to understand how spatial, hydrological and climate variables affect runoff generation and streamflow at hillslope and watershed scales at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory (CHL) in the southern Appalachian Mountains by analyzing stable isotopes of hydrogen (2H) and oxygen (18O) coupled with measurements of hydrological variables (stream discharge, soil moisture, shallow groundwater) and landscape variables (upslope accumulated area, vegetation density slope, and aspect). We investigated four small catchments, two of which contained broadleaf deciduous vegetation and two of which contained evergreen coniferous vegetation. Beginning in June 2011, we collected monthly water samples at 25 m intervals along each stream, monthly samples from 24 shallow groundwater wells, and weekly to monthly samples from 10 rain gauges distributed across CHL. Water samples were analyzed for 2H and 18O using cavity ring-down spectroscopy. During the same time period we recorded shallow groundwater stage at 30 min intervals from each well, and beginning in fall 2011 we collected volumetric soil moisture data at 30 min intervals from multiple depths at 16 landscape positions. Results show high spatial and temporal variability in δ2H and δ18O within and among streams, but in general we found isotopic enrichment with increasing contributing area along each stream. We used a combination of hydrometric observations and geospatial analyses to understand why stream isotope patterns varied during the year and among watersheds, and we used complementary measurements of δ2H and δ18O from other pools within the watersheds to understand the movement and mixing of precipitation that precedes runoff formation. This combination of high resolution stable isotope data and hydrometric observations facilitates a clearer understanding of spatial controls on streamflow

An investigation of the effect of hysteresis in a simple rainfall-runoff model

Science.gov (United States)

Flynn, D. P.; O'Kane, J. P.

2009-04-01

Multiphase porous media such as soils are known to exhibit hysteresis, e.g. in soils there is a strong hysteretic relationship between the moisture content and the matric potential and to date the Preisach model has been successful in modelling this relationship. Subsequently ODEs with Preisach hysteresis have been developed, such as a hysteretic version of Darcy's law and a hysteretic version of the linear reservoir known as the Preisach reservoir. In this paper we combine the above Hysteretic Differential Equations (HDEs) with three linear reservoirs so as to develop a simple rainfall runoff model. The model can be represented by a block diagram: Rainfall q(t) enters the soil component and either infiltrates and/or runs off when it exceeds the maximum rate of infiltration. The runoff part is fed into two linear reservoirs in series. Next, the drainage from the soil to groundwater is represented by a single linear reservoir, where the output from the soil becomes the input to the ground reservoir and vice-versa for capillary rise. Finally the groundwater and surface runoff are combined at some point and contribute to the total outflow from the catchment. Finally we investigate the effects of hysteresis in this system and compare it to the non-hysteretic case.

A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Gosling, S. N.; Taylor, R. G.; Arnell, N. W.; Todd, M. C.

2011-01-01

We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and developmental conditions. These include the Liard (Canada), Mekong (SE Asia), Okavango (SW Africa), Rio Grande (Brazil), Xiangxi (China) and Harper's Brook (UK). A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09) is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs include SLURP v. 12.2 (Liard), SLURP v. 12.7 (Mekong), Pitman (Okavango), MGB-IPH (Rio Grande), AV-SWAT-X 2005 (Xiangxi) and Cat-PDM (Harper's Brook). The CHMs typically simulate water resource impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM and the CHMs include river routing, whereas the GHM does not. Simulations of mean annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5) and low (Q95) monthly runoff under baseline (1961-1990) and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1) prescribed increases in global-mean air temperature of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 °C relative to baseline from the UKMO HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) to explore response to different amounts of climate forcing, and (2) a prescribed increase in global-mean air temperature of 2.0 °C relative to baseline for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model structural uncertainty. We find that the differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM (e.g. an absolute GHM-CHM difference in mean annual runoff percentage change for UKMO HadCM3 2 °C warming of up to 25%), and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low monthly runoff. However

A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. N. Gosling

2011-01-01

Full Text Available We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM. Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and developmental conditions. These include the Liard (Canada, Mekong (SE Asia, Okavango (SW Africa, Rio Grande (Brazil, Xiangxi (China and Harper's Brook (UK. A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09 is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs include SLURP v. 12.2 (Liard, SLURP v. 12.7 (Mekong, Pitman (Okavango, MGB-IPH (Rio Grande, AV-SWAT-X 2005 (Xiangxi and Cat-PDM (Harper's Brook. The CHMs typically simulate water resource impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM and the CHMs include river routing, whereas the GHM does not. Simulations of mean annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5 and low (Q95 monthly runoff under baseline (1961–1990 and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1 prescribed increases in global-mean air temperature of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 °C relative to baseline from the UKMO HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM to explore response to different amounts of climate forcing, and (2 a prescribed increase in global-mean air temperature of 2.0 °C relative to baseline for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model structural uncertainty.

We find that the differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM (e.g. an absolute GHM-CHM difference in mean annual runoff percentage change for UKMO HadCM3 2 °C warming of up to 25%, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low monthly runoff

Toward hydro-social modeling: Merging human variables and the social sciences with climate-glacier runoff models (Santa River, Peru)

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Carey, Mark; Baraer, Michel; Mark, Bryan G.; French, Adam; Bury, Jeffrey; Young, Kenneth R.; McKenzie, Jeffrey M.

2014-10-01

Glacier shrinkage caused by climate change is likely to trigger diminished and less consistent stream flow in glacier-fed watersheds worldwide. To understand, model, and adapt to these climate-glacier-water changes, it is vital to integrate the analysis of both water availability (the domain of hydrologists) and water use (the focus for social scientists). Drawn from a case study of the Santa River watershed below Peru’s glaciated Cordillera Blanca mountain range, this paper provides a holistic hydro-social framework that identifies five major human variables critical to hydrological modeling because these forces have profoundly influenced water use over the last 60 years: (1) political agendas and economic development; (2) governance: laws and institutions; (3) technology and engineering; (4) land and resource use; and (5) societal responses. Notable shifts in Santa River water use-including major expansions in hydroelectricity generation, large-scale irrigation projects, and other land and resource-use practices-did not necessarily stem from changing glacier runoff or hydrologic shifts, but rather from these human variables. Ultimately, then, water usage is not predictable based on water availability alone. Glacier runoff conforms to certain expected trends predicted by models of progressively reduced glacier storage. However, societal forces establish the legal, economic, political, cultural, and social drivers that actually shape water usage patterns via human modification of watershed dynamics. This hydro-social framework has widespread implications for hydrological modeling in glaciated watersheds from the Andes and Alps to the Himalaya and Tien Shan, as well as for the development of climate change adaptation plans.

SSEM: A model for simulating runoff and erosion of saline-sodic soil slopes under coastal reclamation

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Liu, Dongdong; She, Dongli

2018-06-01

Current physically based erosion models do not carefully consider the dynamic variations of soil properties during rainfall and are unable to simulate saline-sodic soil slope erosion processes. The aim of this work was to build upon a complete model framework, SSEM, to simulate runoff and erosion processes for saline-sodic soils by coupling dynamic saturated hydraulic conductivity Ks and soil erodibility Kτ. Sixty rainfall simulation rainfall experiments (2 soil textures × 5 sodicity levels × 2 slope gradients × 3 duplicates) provided data for model calibration and validation. SSEM worked very well for simulating the runoff and erosion processes of saline-sodic silty clay. The runoff and erosion processes of saline-sodic silt loam were more complex than those of non-saline soils or soils with higher clay contents; thus, SSEM did not perform very well for some validation events. We further examined the model performances of four concepts: Dynamic Ks and Kτ (Case 1, SSEM), Dynamic Ks and Constant Kτ (Case 2), Constant Ks and Dynamic Kτ (Case 3) and Constant Ks and Constant Kτ (Case 4). The results demonstrated that the model, which considers dynamic variations in soil saturated hydraulic conductivity and soil erodibility, can provide more reasonable runoff and erosion prediction results for saline-sodic soils.

Terrain and subsurface influences on runoff generation in a steep, deep, highly weathered system

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Mallard, J. M.; McGlynn, B. L.; Richter, D. D., Jr.

2017-12-01

Our understanding of runoff generation in regions characterized by deep, highly weathered soils is incomplete, despite the prevalence occupation of these landscapes worldwide. To address this, we instrumented a first-order watershed in the Piedmont of South Carolina, USA, a region that extends east of the Appalachians from Maryland to Alabama, and home to some of the most rapid population growth in the country. Although regionally the relief is modest, the landscape is often highly dissected and local slopes can be steep and highly varied. The typical soils of the region are kaolinite dominated ultisols, with hydrologic properties controlled by argillic Bt horizons, often with >50% clay-size fraction. The humid subtropical climate creates relatively consistent precipitation intra-annually and seasonally variable energy availability. Consequently, the mixed deciduous and coniferous tree cover creates a strong evapotranspiration-mediated hydrologic dynamic. While moist soils and extended stream networks are typical from late fall through spring, relatively dry soils and contracting stream networks emerge in the summer and early fall. Here, we seek to elucidate the relative influence of the vertical soil and spatial terrain structure of this region on watershed hillslope hydrology and subsequent runoff generation. We installed a network of nested, shallow groundwater wells and soil water content probes within an ephemeral to first-order watershed to continuously measure soil and groundwater dynamics across soil horizons and landscape position. We also recorded local precipitation and discharge from this watershed. Most landscape positions exhibited minimal water table response to precipitation throughout dry summer periods, with infrequently observed responses rarely coincident with streamflow generation. In contrast, during the wetter late fall through early spring period, streamflow was driven by the interaction between transient perched water tables and

The impact of global warming on river runoff

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.

1992-01-01

A global atmospheric model is used to calculate the annual river runoff for 33 of the world's major rivers for the present climate and for a doubled CO2 climate. The model has a horizontal resolution of 4 x 5 deg, but the runoff from each model grid box is quartered and added to the appropriate river drainage basin on a 2 x 2.5 deg resolution. The computed runoff depends on the model's precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture storage. For the doubled CO2 climate, the runoff increased for 25 of the 33 rivers, and in most cases the increases coincide with increased rainfall within the drainage basins. There were runoff increases in all rivers in high northern latitudes, with a maximum increase of 47 percent. At low latitudes there were both increases and decreases ranging from a 96 increase to a 43 percent decrease. The effect of the simplified model assumptions of land-atmosphere interactions on the results is discussed.

Runoff modeling of the Amazon basin using 18 O as a conservative tracer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mortatti, Jefferson; Victoria, Reynaldo L.; Moraes, Jorge M.; Rodrigues Junior, Jose C.; Matsumoto, Otavio M.

1997-01-01

Using the δO 18 O content of natural waters as a conservative tracer, a runoff modelling of the Amazon river basin was carried out in order to study the hydrological characteristics of the precipitation-runoff relationship. Measurements of the δ 18 O in rainfall waters made in the high Solimoes region at Benjamin Constant, in the central part of basin at Manaus, and at the mouth near the Marajo Island, while the river waters were measured at Obidos only, as a proxy for the mouth, during the 1973-1974 hydrological years. The hydrography separation of the Amazon river was performed using the isotopic method to estimate the contributions of the surface runoff (event water) and baseflow (pre-event water) components to the total river flow. At peak discharge, the average contribution of the baseflow was 57% of the total river flow. The annual average contributions for surface runoff and baseflow were 30.3 and 69.7%, respectively. The residence time of the subsurface water in the basin was estimated as being 7 months, by fitting a sinusoidal function to the isotopic values of rainfall and river waters. The low values of the amplitude damping in the basin suggest high mixing waters during the runoff process. (author). 21 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

Estimation of reservoir inflow in data scarce region by using Sacramento rainfall runoff model - A case study for Sittaung River Basin, Myanmar

Science.gov (United States)

Myo Lin, Nay; Rutten, Martine

2017-04-01

The Sittaung River is one of four major rivers in Myanmar. This river basin is developing fast and facing problems with flood, sedimentation, river bank erosion and salt intrusion. At present, more than 20 numbers of reservoirs have already been constructed for multiple purposes such as irrigation, domestic water supply, hydro-power generation, and flood control. The rainfall runoff models are required for the operational management of this reservoir system. In this study, the river basin is divided into (64) sub-catchments and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) models are developed by using satellite rainfall and Geographic Information System (GIS) data. The SAC-SMA model has sixteen calibration parameters, and also uses a unit hydrograph for surface flow routing. The Sobek software package is used for SAC-SMA modelling and simulation of river system. The models are calibrated and tested by using observed discharge and water level data. The statistical results show that the model is applicable to use for data scarce region. Keywords: Sacramento, Sobek, rainfall runoff, reservoir

Comparison of two stochastic techniques for reliable urban runoff prediction by modeling systematic errors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Del Giudice, Dario; Löwe, Roland; Madsen, Henrik

2015-01-01

from different fields and have not yet been compared in environmental modeling. To compare the two approaches, we develop a unifying terminology, evaluate them theoretically, and apply them to conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling in the same drainage system. Our results show that both approaches can......In urban rainfall-runoff, commonly applied statistical techniques for uncertainty quantification mostly ignore systematic output errors originating from simplified models and erroneous inputs. Consequently, the resulting predictive uncertainty is often unreliable. Our objective is to present two...... approaches which use stochastic processes to describe systematic deviations and to discuss their advantages and drawbacks for urban drainage modeling. The two methodologies are an external bias description (EBD) and an internal noise description (IND, also known as stochastic gray-box modeling). They emerge...

Effects of low-impact-development (LID) practices on streamflow, runoff quantity, and runoff quality in the Ipswich River Basin, Massachusetts-A Summary of field and modeling studies

Science.gov (United States)

Zimmerman, Marc J.; Waldron, Marcus C.; Barbaro, Jeffrey R.; Sorenson, Jason R.

2010-01-01

Low-impact-development (LID) approaches are intended to create, retain, or restore natural hydrologic and water-quality conditions that may be affected by human alterations. Wide-scale implementation of LID techniques may offer the possibility of improving conditions in river basins, such as the Ipswich River Basin in Massachusetts, that have run dry during the summer because of groundwater withdrawals and drought. From 2005 to 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey, in a cooperative funding agreement with the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation, monitored small-scale installations of LID enhancements designed to diminish the effects of storm runoff on the quantity and quality of surface water and groundwater. Funding for the studies also was contributed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Targeted Watersheds Grant Program through a financial assistance agreement with Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation. The monitoring studies examined the effects of * replacing an impervious parking-lot surface with a porous surface on groundwater quality, * installing rain gardens and porous pavement in a neighborhood of 3 acres on the quantity and quality of stormwater runoff, and * installing a 3,000-ft2 (square-foot) green roof on the quantity and quality of rainfall-generated roof runoff. In addition to these small-scale installations, the U.S. Geological Survey's Ipswich River Basin model was used to simulate the basin-wide effects on streamflow of several changes: broad-scale implementation of LID techniques, reduced water-supply withdrawals, and water-conservation measures. Water-supply and conservation scenarios for application in model simulations were developed with the assistance of two technical advisory committees that included representatives of State agencies responsible for water resources, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Geological Survey, water suppliers, and non-governmental organizations. From June

ANN Model-Based Simulation of the Runoff Variation in Response to Climate Change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

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Chang Juan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Precisely quantitative assessments of stream flow response to climatic change and permafrost thawing are highly challenging and urgent in cold regions. However, due to the notably harsh environmental conditions, there is little field monitoring data of runoff in permafrost regions, which has limited the development of physically based models in these regions. To identify the impacts of climate change in the runoff process in the Three-River Headwater Region (TRHR on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, two artificial neural network (ANN models, one with three input variables (previous runoff, air temperature, and precipitation and another with two input variables (air temperature and precipitation only, were developed to simulate and predict the runoff variation in the TRHR. The results show that the three-input variable ANN model has a superior real-time prediction capability and performs well in the simulation and forecasting of the runoff variation in the TRHR. Under the different scenarios conditions, the forecasting results of ANN model indicated that climate change has a great effect on the runoff processes in the TRHR. The results of this study are of practical significance for water resources management and the evaluation of the impacts of climatic change on the hydrological regime in long-term considerations.

Modification of a rainfall-runoff model for distributed modeling in a GIS and its validation

Science.gov (United States)

Nyabeze, W. R.

A rainfall-runoff model, which can be inter-faced with a Geographical Information System (GIS) to integrate definition, measurement, calculating parameter values for spatial features, presents considerable advantages. The modification of the GWBasic Wits Rainfall-Runoff Erosion Model (GWBRafler) to enable parameter value estimation in a GIS (GISRafler) is presented in this paper. Algorithms are applied to estimate parameter values reducing the number of input parameters and the effort to populate them. The use of a GIS makes the relationship between parameter estimates and cover characteristics more evident. This paper has been produced as part of research to generalize the GWBRafler on a spatially distributed basis. Modular data structures are assumed and parameter values are weighted relative to the module area and centroid properties. Modifications to the GWBRafler enable better estimation of low flows, which are typical in drought conditions.

Snowmelt runoff from northern alpine tundra hillslopes: major processes and methods of simulation

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W. L. Quinton

2004-01-01

Full Text Available In northern alpine tundra, large slope gradients, late-lying snow drifts and shallow soils overlying impermeable substrates all contribute to large hillslope runoff volumes during the spring freshet. Understanding the processes and pathways of hillslope runoff in this environment is, therefore, critical to understanding the water cycle within northern alpine tundra ecosystems. This study: (a presents the results of a field study on runoff from a sub-alpine tundra hillslope with a large snow drift during the spring melt period; (b identifies the major runoff processes that must be represented in simulations of snowmelt runoff from sub-alpine tundra hillslopes; (c describes how these processes can be represented in a numerical simulation model; and d compares field measurements with modelled output to validate or refute the conceptual understanding of runoff generation embodied in the process simulations. The study was conducted at Granger Creek catchment, 15 km south of Whitehorse, Yukon Territory, Canada, on a north-facing slope below a late-lying snow drift. For the freshet period, the major processes to be represented in a runoff model include the rate of meltwater release from the late-lying snowdrift, the elevation and thickness of the saturated layer, the magnitude of the soil permeability and its variation with depth. The daily cycle of net all-wave radiation was observed to drive the diurnal pulses of melt water from the drift; this, in turn, was found to control the daily pulses of flow through the hillslope subsurface and in the stream channel. The computed rate of frost table lowering fell within the observed values; however, there was wide variation among the measured frost table depths. Spatial variability in frost table depth would result in spatial variabilities in saturated layer depth and thickness, which would, in turn, produce variations in subsurface flow rates over the slope, including preferential flowpaths. Keywords

The Hachioji Experimental Basin Study — Storm runoff processes and the mechanism of its generation

Science.gov (United States)

Tanaka, T.; Yasuhara, M.; Sakai, H.; Marui, A.

1988-09-01

The study discusses storm runoff processes and the mechanism of its generation in relation to dynamic responses of subsurface water in a small forested drainage basin located in the western suburbs of Tokyo, Japan. Intensive field observations were carried out for the period 1980-1983. In the drainage basin overland flow occurred from restricted areas on the valley floor. No significant overland flow was produced on the steep hillside slopes even during a heavy storm event. The maximum extent of the saturated area occupied only 1-4% of the total basin area. The main source of storm runoff was groundwater flow. More than 90% of the total discharge was due to groundwater flow and the surface flow component contributed less than 10%. The rapid and large amounts of groundwater discharge during a storm event could not be explained solely by the traditional concept of Darcian matrix flow. These phenomena were mainly attributed to rapid flow such as pipe flow which has velocities about as high as those of surface flows. The pulsating flow phenomenon was observed as a characteristic of pipe flow.

Multi-Site Calibration of Linear Reservoir Based Geomorphologic Rainfall-Runoff Models

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Bahram Saeidifarzad

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Multi-site optimization of two adapted event-based geomorphologic rainfall-runoff models was presented using Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II method for the South Fork Eel River watershed, California. The first model was developed based on Unequal Cascade of Reservoirs (UECR and the second model was presented as a modified version of Geomorphological Unit Hydrograph based on Nash’s model (GUHN. Two calibration strategies were considered as semi-lumped and semi-distributed for imposing (or unimposing the geomorphology relations in the models. The results of models were compared with Nash’s model. Obtained results using the observed data of two stations in the multi-site optimization framework showed reasonable efficiency values in both the calibration and the verification steps. The outcomes also showed that semi-distributed calibration of the modified GUHN model slightly outperformed other models in both upstream and downstream stations during calibration. Both calibration strategies for the developed UECR model during the verification phase showed slightly better performance in the downstream station, but in the upstream station, the modified GUHN model in the semi-lumped strategy slightly outperformed the other models. The semi-lumped calibration strategy could lead to logical lag time parameters related to the basin geomorphology and may be more suitable for data-based statistical analyses of the rainfall-runoff process.

How much runoff originates as snow in the western United States and what its future changes tell us?

Science.gov (United States)

Li, D.; Wrzesien, M.; Durand, M. T.; Adam, J. C.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

Snow is a vital hydrologic cycle component in the western United States. The seasonal phase of snowmelt bridges between winter-dominant precipitation and summer-dominant human and ecosystem water demand. Current estimates of the fraction of total annual runoff generated by snowmelt (f_Q,snow) are not based on defensible, systematic analyses. Here, based on hydrological model simulations, we describe a new algorithm that explicitly quantifies the contribution of snow to runoff in the Western U.S. Specifically, the algorithm tracks the fate of the snowmelt runoff in the modeled hydrological fluxes in the soil, surface water, and the atmosphere, and accounts for the exchanges among the three. The hydrological fluxes are simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model using an ensemble of ten general circulation model (GCM) outputs trained by ground observations. We conducted the tracking to the VIC modeling ensemble and reported the mean of the ten tracking results. We computed the historical f_Q,snow with the modeling estimates from 1960 to 2005, and predicted the future f_Q,snow using the modeling estimates from 2006 to 2100 in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Our tracking results show that from 1960 to 2005, slightly over one-half of the total runoff in the western United States originated as snowmelt, despite only 37% of the region's total precipitation falling as snow; snowfall is more efficient than rainfall in runoff generation. Snow's importance varies physiographically: snowmelt from the mountains is responsible for over 70% of the total runoff in the West. Snowmelt-derived runoff currently makes up about 2/3 of the inflow to the region's major reservoirs; for Lake Mead and Lake Powell, which are the two largest reservoirs of the nation, snow contributes over 70% of their storage. The contribution of snowmelt to the total runoff will decrease in a warmer climate, by about 1/3 over the West by 2100. Snow will melt earlier and the snowmelt

A note on estimating urban roof runoff with a forest evaporation model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gash, J.H.C.; Rosier, P.T.W.; Ragab, R.

2008-01-01

A model developed for estimating the evaporation of rainfall intercepted by forest canopies is applied to estimate measurements of the average runoff from the roofs of six houses made in a previous study of hydrological processes in an urban environment. The model is applied using values of the mean

Modeling and assessing the effects of land use changes on runoff generation with the CLUE-s and WetSpa models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mohammady, Majid; Moradi, Hamid Reza; Zeinivand, Hossein; Temme, A.J.A.M.; Yazdani, Mohammad Reza; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza

2017-01-01

Land use change is an important determinant of hydrological processes and is known to affect hydrological parameters such as runoff volume, flood frequency, base flow, and the partitioning into surface flow and subsurface flow. The main objective of this research was to assess the magnitude of

Using a hybrid model to predict solute transfer from initially saturated soil into surface runoff with controlled drainage water.

Science.gov (United States)

Tong, Juxiu; Hu, Bill X; Yang, Jinzhong; Zhu, Yan

2016-06-01

The mixing layer theory is not suitable for predicting solute transfer from initially saturated soil to surface runoff water under controlled drainage conditions. By coupling the mixing layer theory model with the numerical model Hydrus-1D, a hybrid solute transfer model has been proposed to predict soil solute transfer from an initially saturated soil into surface water, under controlled drainage water conditions. The model can also consider the increasing ponding water conditions on soil surface before surface runoff. The data of solute concentration in surface runoff and drainage water from a sand experiment is used as the reference experiment. The parameters for the water flow and solute transfer model and mixing layer depth under controlled drainage water condition are identified. Based on these identified parameters, the model is applied to another initially saturated sand experiment with constant and time-increasing mixing layer depth after surface runoff, under the controlled drainage water condition with lower drainage height at the bottom. The simulation results agree well with the observed data. Study results suggest that the hybrid model can accurately simulate the solute transfer from initially saturated soil into surface runoff under controlled drainage water condition. And it has been found that the prediction with increasing mixing layer depth is better than that with the constant one in the experiment with lower drainage condition. Since lower drainage condition and deeper ponded water depth result in later runoff start time, more solute sources in the mixing layer are needed for the surface water, and larger change rate results in the increasing mixing layer depth.

Catchment area-based evaluation of the AMC-dependent SCS-CN-based rainfall-runoff models

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, S. K.; Jain, M. K.; Pandey, R. P.; Singh, V. P.

2005-09-01

Using a large set of rainfall-runoff data from 234 watersheds in the USA, a catchment area-based evaluation of the modified version of the Mishra and Singh (2002a) model was performed. The model is based on the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) methodology and incorporates the antecedent moisture in computation of direct surface runoff. Comparison with the existing SCS-CN method showed that the modified version performed better than did the existing one on the data of all seven area-based groups of watersheds ranging from 0.01 to 310.3 km2.

Rainfall-runoff modelling of the Okavango River catchment to assess impacts of land use change on runoff and downstream ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Milzow, Christian; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

2010-05-01

The competition between human water use and ecosystem water use is one of the major challenges for water resources management at the global scale. We analyse the situation for the Okavango River basin of southern Africa. The Okavango River is representative for many large rivers throughout the developing world in that it is ungauged and poorly studied. The Okavango basin - spanning over Angola, Namibia and Botswana - represents a multi-objective problem in an international setting. Economic benefits of agricultural development and conservation of ecosystem services call for opposed actions. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model of the Okavango catchment is set up using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model is sufficiently physically based to simulate the impact on runoff of extent of agricultural use, crop types and management practices. Precipitation and temperature inputs are taken from datasets covering large parts of the globe. The methodology can thus easily be applied for other ungauged catchments. For temperature we use the ERA-Interim reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and for precipitation the Famine Early Warning Systems Network data (FEWS-Net). Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data resulted in poor model performance compared to the FEWS-Net data. Presently, the upstream catchment in Angola is largely pristine and agriculture is basically restricted to dry land subsistence farming. But economic growth in Angola is likely to result in agricultural development and consequent impacts on catchment runoff. Land use scenarios that are simulated include large scale irrigated agriculture with water extractions from the river and the shallow aquifer. Climate change impacts are also studied and compared to land use change impacts. The downstream part of the basin consists of the large Okavango Wetlands, which are a biodiversity hotspot of global importance and, through tourism, an important

Raster-based derivation of a flood runoff susceptibility map using the revised runoff curve number (CN) for the Kuantan watershed, Malaysia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Akbari, Abolghasem; Samah, Azizan Abu; Daryabor, Farshid

2016-01-01

This study aims to develop a methodology for generating a flood runoff susceptibility (FRS) map using a revised curve number (CN) method. The study area is in the Kuantan watershed (KW), Malaysia, which was seriously affected by floods in December 2013 and December 2014. A revised runoff CN map w......, the finding of this research provides a road map for government agencies to effectively implement flood mitigation projects in the study area.......This study aims to develop a methodology for generating a flood runoff susceptibility (FRS) map using a revised curve number (CN) method. The study area is in the Kuantan watershed (KW), Malaysia, which was seriously affected by floods in December 2013 and December 2014. A revised runoff CN map....... Approximately 5% of the study area was identified as a very high-risk zone and 13% as high-risk zone. However, the spatial extent of a high-risk zone in the downstream end and lowland areas of the KW could be considered to be the main cause of flood damage in recent years. From practical point of view...

Assessment of CREAMS [Chemicals, Runoff, and Erosion from Agricultural Management Systems] and ERHYM-II [Ekalaka Rangeland Hydrology and Yield Model] computer models for simulating soil water movement on the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laundre, J.W.

1990-05-01

The major goal of radioactive waste management is long-term containment of radioactive waste. Long-term containment is dependent on understanding water movement on, into, and through trench caps. Several computer simulation models are available for predicting water movement. Of the several computer models available, CREAMS (Chemicals, Runoff, and Erosion from Agricultural Management Systems) and ERHYM-II (Ekalaka Rangeland Hydrology and Yield Model) were tested for use on the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). The models were calibrated, tested for sensitivity, and used to evaluate some basic trench cap designs. Each model was used to postdict soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff of two watersheds for which such data were already available. Sensitivity of the models was tested by adjusting various input parameters from high to low values and then comparing model outputs to those generated from average values. Ten input parameters of the CREAMS model were tested for sensitivity. 17 refs., 23 figs., 20 tabs

Long-term characterization of residential runoff and assessing potential surrogates of fecal indicator organisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Reano, Dane C; Haver, Darren L; Oki, Lorence R; Yates, Marylynn V

2015-05-01

Investigations into the microbiological impacts of urban runoff on receiving water bodies, especially during storm conditions, have yielded general paradigms that influence runoff abatement and control management strategies. To determine whether these trends are present in other runoff sources, the physical, chemical, and microbiological components of residential runoff from eight neighborhoods in Northern and Southern California were characterized over the course of five years. Sampling occurred regularly and during storm events, resulting in 833 data sets. Analysis of runoff data assisted in characterizing residential runoff, elucidating differences between dry and storm conditions, and identifying surrogates capable of assessing microbiological quality. Results indicate that although microbial loading increases during storm events similar to urban runoff, annual microbial loading in these study sites principally occurs during dry conditions (24% storm, 76% dry). Generated artificial neural network and multiple linear regression models assessed surrogate performance by accurately predicting Escherichia coli concentrations from validation data sets (R(2) = 0.74 and 0.77, respectively), but required input from other fecal indicator organism (FIO) variables to maintain performance (R(2) = 0.27 and 0.18, respectively, without FIO). This long-term analysis of residential runoff highlights characteristics distinct from urban runoff and establishes necessary variables for determining microbiological quality, thus better informing future management strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Soil erosion-runoff relationships: insights from laboratory studies

Science.gov (United States)

Mamedov, Amrakh; Warrington, David; Levy, Guy

2016-04-01

Understanding the processes and mechanisms affecting runoff generation and subsequent soil erosion in semi-arid regions is essential for the development of improved soil and water conservation management practices. Using a drip type laboratory rain simulator, we studied runoff and soil erosion, and the relationships between them, in 60 semi-arid region soils varying in their intrinsic properties (e.g., texture, organic matter) under differing extrinsic conditions (e.g., rain properties, and conditions prevailing in the field soil). Both runoff and soil erosion were significantly affected by the intrinsic soil and rain properties, and soil conditions within agricultural fields or watersheds. The relationship between soil erosion and runoff was stronger when the rain kinetic energy was higher rather than lower, and could be expressed either as a linear or exponential function. Linear functions applied to certain limited cases associated with conditions that enhanced soil structure stability, (e.g., slow wetting, amending with soil stabilizers, minimum tillage in clay soils, and short duration exposure to rain). Exponential functions applied to most of the cases under conditions that tended to harm soil stability (e.g., fast wetting of soils, a wide range of antecedent soil water contents and rain kinetic energies, conventional tillage, following biosolid applications, irrigation with water of poor quality, consecutive rain simulations). The established relationships between runoff and soil erosion contributed to a better understanding of the mechanisms governing overland flow and soil loss, and could assist in (i) further development of soil erosion models and research techniques, and (ii) the design of more suitable management practices for soil and water conservation.

Modeling urban storm rainfall runoff from diverse underlying surfaces and application for control design in Beijing.

Science.gov (United States)

Ouyang, Wei; Guo, Bobo; Hao, Fanghua; Huang, Haobo; Li, Junqi; Gong, Yongwei

2012-12-30

Managing storm rainfall runoff is paramount in semi-arid regions with urban development. In Beijing, pollution prevention in urban storm runoff and storm water utilization has been identified as the primary strategy for urban water management. In this paper, we sampled runoff during storm rainfall events and analyzed the concentration of chemical oxygen demand (COD), total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) in the runoff. Furthermore, the first flush effect of storm rainfall from diverse underlying surfaces was also analyzed. With the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the different impervious rates of underlying surfaces during the storm runoff process were expressed. The removal rates of three typical pollutants and their interactions with precipitation and underlying surfaces were identified. From these rates, the scenarios regarding the urban storm runoff pollution loading from different designs of underlying previous rates were assessed with the SWMM. First flush effect analysis showed that the first 20% of the storm runoff should be discarded, which can help in utilizing the storm water resource. The results of this study suggest that the SWMM can express in detail the storm water pollution patterns from diverse underlying surfaces in Beijing, which significantly affected water quality. The scenario analysis demonstrated that impervious rate adjustment has the potential to reduce runoff peak and decrease pollution loading. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Impact of changes in land use and climate on the runoff in Liuxihe Watershed based on SWAT model].

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Yu-zhi; Zhang, Zheng-dong; Meng, Jin-hua

2015-04-01

SWAT model, an extensively used distributed hydrological model, was used to quantitatively analyze the influences of changes in land use and climate on the runoff at watershed scale. Liuxihe Watershed' s SWAT model was established and three scenarios were set. The calibration and validation at three hydrological stations of Wenquan, Taipingchang and Nangang showed that the three factors of Wenquan station just only reached the standard in validated period, and the other two stations had relative error (RE) 0.8 and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency valve (Ens) > 0.75, suggesting that SWAT model was appropriate for simulating runoff response to land use change and climate variability in Liuxihe watershed. According to the integrated scenario simulation, the annual runoff increased by 11.23 m3 x s(-1) from 2001 to 2010 compared with the baseline period from 1991 to 2000, among which, the land use change caused an annual runoff reduction of 0.62 m3 x s(-1), whereas climate variability caused an annual runoff increase of 11.85 m3 x s(-1). Apparently, the impact of climate variability was stronger than that of land use change. On the other hand, the scenario simulation of extreme land use showed that compared with the land use in 2000, the annual runoff of the farmland scenario and the grassland scenario increased by 2.7% and 0.5% respectively, while that of the forest land scenario were reduced by 0.7%, which suggested that forest land had an ability of diversion closure. Furthermore, the scenario simulation of climatic variability indicated that the change of river runoff correlated positively with precipitation change (increase of 11.6% in annual runoff with increase of 10% in annual precipitation) , but negatively with air temperature change (reduction of 0.8% in annual runoff with increase of 1 degrees C in annual mean air temperature), which showed that the impact of precipitation variability was stronger than that of air temperature change. Therefore, in face of climate

Modelling the impact of retention-detention units on sewer surcharge and peak and annual runoff reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Locatelli, Luca; Gabriel, Søren; Mark, Ole; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Taylor, Heidi; Bockhorn, Britta; Larsen, Hauge; Kjølby, Morten Just; Blicher, Anne Steensen; Binning, Philip John

2015-01-01

Stormwater management using water sensitive urban design is expected to be part of future drainage systems. This paper aims to model the combination of local retention units, such as soakaways, with subsurface detention units. Soakaways are employed to reduce (by storage and infiltration) peak and volume stormwater runoff; however, large retention volumes are required for a significant peak reduction. Peak runoff can therefore be handled by combining detention units with soakaways. This paper models the impact of retrofitting retention-detention units for an existing urbanized catchment in Denmark. The impact of retrofitting a retention-detention unit of 3.3 m³/100 m² (volume/impervious area) was simulated for a small catchment in Copenhagen using MIKE URBAN. The retention-detention unit was shown to prevent flooding from the sewer for a 10-year rainfall event. Statistical analysis of continuous simulations covering 22 years showed that annual stormwater runoff was reduced by 68-87%, and that the retention volume was on average 53% full at the beginning of rain events. The effect of different retention-detention volume combinations was simulated, and results showed that allocating 20-40% of a soakaway volume to detention would significantly increase peak runoff reduction with a small reduction in the annual runoff.

Evaluation of radar-derived precipitation estimates using runoff simulation : report for the NFR Energy Norway funded project 'Utilisation of weather radar data in atmospheric and hydrological models'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abdella, Yisak; Engeland, Kolbjoern; Lepioufle, Jean-Marie

2012-11-01

This report presents the results from the project called 'Utilisation of weather radar data in atmospheric and hydrological models' funded by NFR and Energy Norway. Three precipitation products (radar-derived, interpolated and combination of the two) were generated as input for hydrological models. All the three products were evaluated by comparing the simulated and observed runoff at catchments. In order to expose any bias in the precipitation inputs, no precipitation correction factors were applied. Three criteria were used to measure the performance: Nash, correlation coefficient, and bias. The results shows that the simulations with the combined precipitation input give the best performance. We also see that the radar-derived precipitation estimates give reasonable runoff simulation even without a region specific parameters for the Z-R relationship. All the three products resulted in an underestimation of the estimated runoff, revealing a systematic bias in measurements (e.g. catch deficit, orographic effects, Z-R relationships) that can be improved. There is an important potential of using radar-derived precipitation for simulation of runoff, especially in catchments without precipitation gauges inside.(Author)

Insight into runoff characteristics using hydrological modeling in the data-scarce southern Tibetan Plateau: Past, present, and future.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mingyong Cai

Full Text Available Regional hydrological modeling in ungauged regions has attracted growing attention in water resources research. The southern Tibetan Plateau often suffers from data scarcity in watershed hydrological simulation and water resources assessment. This hinders further research characterizing the water cycle and solving international water resource issues in the area. In this study, a multi-spatial data based Distributed Time-Variant Gain Model (MS-DTVGM is applied to the Yarlung Zangbo River basin, an important international river basin in the southern Tibetan Plateau with limited meteorological data. This model is driven purely by spatial data from multiple sources and is independent of traditional meteorological data. Based on the methods presented in this study, daily snow cover and potential evapotranspiration data in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin in 2050 are obtained. Future (2050 climatic data (precipitation and air temperature from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5 are used to study the hydrological response to climate change. The result shows that river runoff will increase due to precipitation and air temperature changes by 2050. Few differences are found between daily runoff simulations from different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2050. Historical station observations (1960-2000 at Nuxia and model simulations for two periods (2006-2009 and 2050 are combined to study inter-annual and intra-annual runoff distribution and variability. The inter-annual runoff variation is stable and the coefficient of variation (CV varies from 0.21 to 0.27. In contrast, the intra-annual runoff varies significantly with runoff in summer and autumn accounting for more than 80% of the total amount. Compared to the historical period (1960-2000, the present period (2006-2009 has a slightly uneven intra-annual runoff temporal distribution, and becomes more

Insight into runoff characteristics using hydrological modeling in the data-scarce southern Tibetan Plateau: Past, present, and future.

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Mingyong; Yang, Shengtian; Zhao, Changsen; Zhou, Qiuwen; Hou, Lipeng

2017-01-01

Regional hydrological modeling in ungauged regions has attracted growing attention in water resources research. The southern Tibetan Plateau often suffers from data scarcity in watershed hydrological simulation and water resources assessment. This hinders further research characterizing the water cycle and solving international water resource issues in the area. In this study, a multi-spatial data based Distributed Time-Variant Gain Model (MS-DTVGM) is applied to the Yarlung Zangbo River basin, an important international river basin in the southern Tibetan Plateau with limited meteorological data. This model is driven purely by spatial data from multiple sources and is independent of traditional meteorological data. Based on the methods presented in this study, daily snow cover and potential evapotranspiration data in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin in 2050 are obtained. Future (2050) climatic data (precipitation and air temperature) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) are used to study the hydrological response to climate change. The result shows that river runoff will increase due to precipitation and air temperature changes by 2050. Few differences are found between daily runoff simulations from different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050. Historical station observations (1960-2000) at Nuxia and model simulations for two periods (2006-2009 and 2050) are combined to study inter-annual and intra-annual runoff distribution and variability. The inter-annual runoff variation is stable and the coefficient of variation (CV) varies from 0.21 to 0.27. In contrast, the intra-annual runoff varies significantly with runoff in summer and autumn accounting for more than 80% of the total amount. Compared to the historical period (1960-2000), the present period (2006-2009) has a slightly uneven intra-annual runoff temporal distribution, and becomes more balanced in

Simulations of future runoff conditions for glacierized catchments in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) using the physically based hydroclimatological model AMUNDSEN

Science.gov (United States)

Hanzer, Florian; Förster, Kristian; Marke, Thomas; Strasser, Ulrich

2016-04-01

Assessing the amount of water resources stored in mountain catchments as snow and ice as well as the timing of meltwater production and the resulting streamflow runoff is of high interest for glaciohydrological investigations and hydropower production. Climate change induced seasonal shifts in snow and ice melt will alter the hydrological regimes in glacierized catchments in terms of both timing and magnitude of discharge. We present the setup of the hydroclimatological model AMUNDSEN for a highly glacierized (24 %) 558 km2 large study area (1760-3768 m a.s.l.) in the Ötztal Alps (Austria), and first results of simulated future runoff conditions. The study region comprises the headwater catchments of the valleys Ötztal, Pitztal, and Kaunertal, which contribute to the streamflow of the river Inn. AMUNDSEN is a fully distributed physically based model designed to quantify the energy and mass balance of snow and ice surfaces in complex topography as well as streamflow generation for a given catchment. The model has been extensively validated for past conditions and has been extended by an empirical glacier evolution model (Δh approach) for the present study. Statistically downscaled EURO-CORDEX climate simulations covering the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are used as the meteorological forcing for the period 2006-2050. Model results are evaluated in terms of magnitude and change of the contributions of the individual runoff components (snowmelt, ice melt, rain) in the subcatchments as well as the change in glacier volume and area.

The effect of the runoff size on the pesticide concentration in runoff water and in FOCUS streams simulated by PRZM and TOXSWA.

Science.gov (United States)

Adriaanse, Paulien I; Van Leerdam, Robert C; Boesten, Jos J T I

2017-04-15

Within the European Union the exposure of aquatic organisms to pesticides is assessed by simulations with the so-called FOCUS Surface Water Scenarios. Runoff plays an important role in these scenarios. As little is known about the effect of runoff size on the exposure, we investigated the effect of runoff size on the concentration in the runoff water and in streams simulated with the PRZM and TOXSWA models for two FOCUS runoff scenarios. For weakly sorbing pesticides (K F,oc runoff water decreased exponentially with increasing daily runoff size. The runoff size hardly affected the pesticide concentration in the runoff water of strongly sorbing pesticides (K F,oc ≥1000Lkg -1 ). For weakly sorbing pesticides the concentration in the FOCUS stream reached a maximum at runoff sizes of about 0.3 to 1mm. The concentration increased rapidly when the runoff size increased from 0 to 0.1mm and gradually decreased when runoff exceeded 1mm. For strongly sorbing pesticides the occurrence of the maximum concentration in the stream is clearly less pronounced and lies approximately between 1 and 20mm runoff. So, this work indicates that preventing small runoff events (e.g. by vegetated buffer strips) reduces exposure concentrations strongly for weakly sorbing pesticides. A simple metamodel was developed for the ratio between the concentrations in the stream and in the runoff water. This model predicted the ratios simulated by TOXSWA very well and it demonstrated that (in addition to runoff size and concentration in runoff) the size of the pesticide-free base flow and pesticide treatment ratio of the catchment determine the stream concentration to a large extent. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Future climate scenarios and rainfall-runoff modelling in the Upper Gallego catchment (Spain)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buerger, C.M.; Kolditz, O.; Fowler, H.J.; Blenkinsop, S.

2007-01-01

Global climate change may have large impacts on water supplies, drought or flood frequencies and magnitudes in local and regional hydrologic systems. Water authorities therefore rely on computer models for quantitative impact prediction. In this study we present kernel-based learning machine river flow models for the Upper Gallego catchment of the Ebro basin. Different learning machines were calibrated using daily gauge data. The models posed two major challenges: (1) estimation of the rainfall-runoff transfer function from the available time series is complicated by anthropogenic regulation and mountainous terrain and (2) the river flow model is weak when only climate data are used, but additional antecedent flow data seemed to lead to delayed peak flow estimation. These types of models, together with the presented downscaled climate scenarios, can be used for climate change impact assessment in the Gallego, which is important for the future management of the system. - Future climate change and data-based rainfall-runoff predictions are presented for the Upper Gallego

Runoff as a factor in USLE/RUSLE technology

Science.gov (United States)

Kinnell, Peter

2014-05-01

Modelling erosion for prediction purposes started with the development of the Universal Soil Loss Equation the focus of which was the prediction of long term (~20) average annul soil loss from field sized areas. That purpose has been maintained in the subsequent revision RUSLE, the most widely used erosion prediction model in the world. The lack of ability to predict short term soil loss saw the development of so-called process based models like WEPP and EUROSEM which focussed on predicting event erosion but failed to improve the prediction of long term erosion where the RUSLE worked well. One of the features of erosion recognised in the so-called process based modes is the fact that runoff is a primary factor in rainfall erosion and some modifications of USLE/RUSLE model have been proposed have included runoff as in independent factor in determining event erosivity. However, these models have ignored fundamental mathematical rules. The USLE-M which replaces the EI30 index by the product of the runoff ratio and EI30 was developed from the concept that soil loss is the product of runoff and sediment concentration and operates in a way that obeys the mathematical rules upon which the USLE/RUSLE model was based. In accounts for event soil loss better that the EI30 index where runoff values are known or predicted adequately. RUSLE2 now includes a capacity to model runoff driven erosion.

Modelling runoff on ceramic tile roofs using the kinematic wave equations

Science.gov (United States)

Silveira, Alexandre; Abrantes, João; de Lima, João; Lira, Lincoln

2016-04-01

Rainwater harvesting is a water saving alternative strategy that presents many advantages and can provide solutions to address major water resources problems, such as fresh water scarcity, urban stream degradation and flooding. In recent years, these problems have become global challenges, due to climatic change, population growth and increasing urbanisation. Generally, roofs are the first to come into contact with rainwater; thus, they are the best candidates for rainwater harvesting. In this context, the correct evaluation of roof runoff quantity and quality is essential to effectively design rainwater harvesting systems. Despite this, many studies usually focus on the qualitative aspects in detriment of the quantitative aspects. Laboratory studies using rainfall simulators have been widely used to investigate rainfall-runoff processes. These studies enabled a detailed exploration and systematic replication of a large range of hydrologic conditions, such as rainfall spatial and temporal characteristics, providing for a fast way to obtain precise and consistent data that can be used to calibrate and validate numerical models. This study aims to evaluate the performance of a kinematic wave based numerical model in simulating runoff on sloping roofs, by comparing the numerical results with the ones obtained from laboratory rainfall simulations on a real-scale ceramic tile roof (Lusa tiles). For all studied slopes, simulated discharge hydrographs had a good adjust to observed ones. Coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values were close to 1.0. Particularly, peak discharges, times to peak and peak durations were very well simulated.

Surface runoff in the Itaim Watershed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Getulio Teixeira Batista

2007-06-01

Full Text Available This paper describes a work done in the Itaim watershed at Taubaté, SP, and had the objective of estimating the surface runoff based on the Curve-Number (CN method in area with vegetation cover of grassland (Brachiaria Decumbens, that prevails in this watershed. The surface runoff was estimated using three different methods: 1st values of accumulated Infiltration (IAc obtained in the field were used, considered as the Potential Infiltration (S, which varied from 15.37 mm to 51.88 mm with an average value of 23.46 mm. With those measured infiltration rates and using the maximum precipitation values for Taubaté, SP, with duration time of 3 hours: P = 54.4; 70.3; 80.8; 86.7; 90.9; 94.1 and 103.9 mm, respectively, for the return times, Tr = 2, 5, 10, 15, 25, 50 and 100 years, the following values of surface runoff were generated: 34.83; 49.33; 59.14; 64.71; 68.69; 71.73 and 81.10 mm, respectively; In the 2nd method it was considered that the prevailing vegetation cover of the watershed was Dirty Pasture (Pasture with regrowth of natural vegetation and therefore, a value of CN = 75 was used and generated a potential infiltration, S = 84,7 mm and resulted in surface runoff values that varied from 11 to 44 mm; In the 3rd method, the value of CN was considered equal to 66.57. This value was calculated weighting the contribution of all land use cover classes of the watershed, and as a result a higher value of potential infiltration, S = 127 mm, was obtained. Consequently, the surface runoff values were 5.33; 11.64; 16.72; 19.83; 22.16; 23.98 and 29.83 mm, respectively. Therefore, the comparison with the results obtained by the two Curve-Number methods (conventional and weighted allowed to be concluded that the Curve-Number method applied in a conventional way underestimated the surface runoff in the studied area. However, results indicate that it is possible to use this method for surface runoff estimates as long as adjustments based on potential

How runoff begins (and ends): characterizing hydrologic response at the catchment scale

Science.gov (United States)

Mirus, Benjamin B.; Loague, Keith

2013-01-01

Improved understanding of the complex dynamics associated with spatially and temporally variable runoff response is needed to better understand the hydrology component of interdisciplinary problems. The objective of this study was to quantitatively characterize the environmental controls on runoff generation for the range of different streamflow-generation mechanisms illustrated in the classic Dunne diagram. The comprehensive physics-based model of coupled surface-subsurface flow, InHM, is employed in a heuristic mode. InHM has been employed previously to successfully simulate the observed hydrologic response at four diverse, well-characterized catchments, which provides the foundation for this study. The C3 and CB catchments are located within steep, forested terrain; the TW and R5 catchments are located in gently sloping rangeland. The InHM boundary-value problems for these four catchments provide the corner-stones for alternative simulation scenarios designed to address the question of how runoff begins (and ends). Simulated rainfall-runoff events are used to systematically explore the impact of soil-hydraulic properties and rainfall characteristics. This approach facilitates quantitative analysis of both integrated and distributed hydrologic responses at high-spatial and temporal resolution over the wide range of environmental conditions represented by the four catchments. The results from 140 unique simulation scenarios illustrate how rainfall intensity/depth, subsurface permeability contrasts, characteristic curve shapes, and topography provide important controls on the hydrologic-response dynamics. The processes by which runoff begins (and ends) are shown, in large part, to be defined by the relative rates of rainfall, infiltration, lateral flow convergence, and storage dynamics within the variably saturated soil layers.

A heat and water transfer model for seasonally frozen soils with application to a precipitation-runoff model

Science.gov (United States)

Emerson, Douglas G.

1994-01-01

A model that simulates heat and water transfer in soils during freezing and thawing periods was developed and incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The model's transfer of heat is based on an equation developed from Fourier's equation for heat flux. The model's transfer of water within the soil profile is based on the concept of capillary forces. Field capacity and infiltration rate can vary throughout the freezing and thawing period, depending on soil conditions and rate and timing of snowmelt. The model can be used to determine the effects of seasonally frozen soils on ground-water recharge and surface-water runoff. Data collected for two winters, 1985-86 and 1986-87, on three runoff plots were used to calibrate and verify the model. The winter of 1985-86 was colder than normal, and snow cover was continuous throughout the winter. The winter of 1986-87 was warmer than normal, and snow accumulated for only short periods of several days. as the criteria for determining the degree of agreement between simulated and measured data. The model was calibrated using the 1985-86 data for plot 2. The calibration simulation agreed closely with the measured data. The verification simulations for plots 1 and 3 using the 1985-86 data and for plots 1 and 2 using the 1986-87 data agreed closely with the measured data. The verification simulation for plot 3 using the 1986-87 data did not agree closely. The recalibration simulations for plots 1 and 3 using the 1985-86 data indicated little improvement because the verification simulations for plots 1 and 3 already agreed closely with the measured data.

Lumped hydrological models is an Occam' razor for runoff modeling in large Russian Arctic basins

OpenAIRE

Ayzel Georgy

2018-01-01

This study is aimed to investigate the possibility of three lumped hydrological models to predict daily runoff of large-scale Arctic basins for the modern period (1979-2014) in the case of substantial data scarcity. All models were driven only by meteorological forcing reanalysis dataset without any additional information about landscape, soil or vegetation cover properties of studied basins. We found limitations of model parameters calibration in ungauged basins using global optimization alg...

Evaluating the effects of model structure and meteorological input data on runoff modelling in an alpine headwater basin

Science.gov (United States)

Schattan, Paul; Bellinger, Johannes; Förster, Kristian; Schöber, Johannes; Huttenlau, Matthias; Kirnbauer, Robert; Achleitner, Stefan

2017-04-01

Modelling water resources in snow-dominated mountainous catchments is challenging due to both, short concentration times and a highly variable contribution of snow melt in space and time from complex terrain. A number of model setups exist ranging from physically based models to conceptional models which do not attempt to represent the natural processes in a physically meaningful way. Within the flood forecasting system for the Tyrolean Inn River two serially linked hydrological models with differing process representation are used. Non- glacierized catchments are modelled by a semi-distributed, water balance model (HQsim) based on the HRU-approach. A fully-distributed energy and mass balance model (SES), purpose-built for snow- and icemelt, is used for highly glacierized headwater catchments. Previous work revealed uncertainties and limitations within the models' structures regarding (i) the representation of snow processes in HQsim, (ii) the runoff routing of SES, and (iii) the spatial resolution of the meteorological input data in both models. To overcome these limitations, a "strengths driven" model coupling is applied. Instead of linking the models serially, a vertical one-way coupling of models has been implemented. The fully-distributed snow modelling of SES is combined with the semi-distributed HQsim structure, allowing to benefit from soil and runoff routing schemes in HQsim. A monte-carlo based modelling experiment was set up to evaluate the resulting differences in the runoff prediction due to the improved model coupling and a refined spatial resolution of the meteorological forcing. The experiment design follows a gradient of spatial discretisation of hydrological processes and meteorological forcing data with a total of six different model setups for the alpine headwater basin of the Fagge River in the Tyrolean Alps. In general, all setups show a good performance for this particular basin. It is therefore planned to include other basins with differing

Influence of Cattle Trails on Runoff Quantity and Quality.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Jim J; Curtis, Tony; Chanasyk, David S; Willms, Walter D

2017-03-01

Cattle trails in grazed pastures close to rivers may adversely affect surface water quality of the adjacent river by directing runoff to it. The objective of this 3-yr study (2013-2015) in southern Alberta, Canada, was to determine if cattle trails significantly increased the risk of runoff and contaminants (sediment, nutrients) compared with the adjacent grazed pasture (control). A portable rainfall simulator was used to generate artificial rainfall (140 mm h) and runoff. The runoff properties measured were time to runoff and initial abstraction (infiltration), total runoff depth and average runoff rates, as well as concentrations and mass loads of sediment, N, and P fractions. Cattle trails significantly ( ≤ 0.10) decreased time to runoff and initial abstraction (26-32%) in the 2 yr measured and increased total runoff depth, runoff coefficients, and average runoff rates (21-51%) in 2 of 3 yr. Concentrations of sediment, N, and P fractions in runoff were not significantly greater for cattle trails than for control areas. However, mass loads of total suspended solids (57-85% increase), NH-N (31-90%), and dissolved reactive P (DRP) (30-92%) were significantly greater because of increased runoff volumes. Overall, runoff quantity and loads of sediment, NH-N, and DRP were greater for cattle trails compared with the adjacent grazed pasture, and hydrologic connection with cattle-access sites on the riverbank suggests that this could adversely affect water quality in the adjacent river. Extrapolation of the study results should be tempered by the specific conditions represented by this rainfall simulation study. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Documentation of a heat and water transfer model for seasonally frozen soils with application to a precipitation-runoff model

Science.gov (United States)

Emerson, Douglas G.

1991-01-01

A model that simulates heat and water transfer in soils during freezing and thawing periods was developed and incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The transfer of heat 1s based on an equation developed from Fourier's equation for heat flux. Field capacity and infiltration rate can vary throughout the freezing and thawing period, depending on soil conditions and rate and timing of snowmelt. The transfer of water within the soil profile is based on the concept of capillary forces. The model can be used to determine the effects of seasonally frozen soils on ground-water recharge and surface-water runoff. Data collected for two winters, 1985-86 and 1986-87, on three runoff plots were used to calibrate and verify the model. The winter of 1985-86 was colder than normal and snow cover was continuous throughout the winter. The winter of 1986-87 was wanner than normal and snow accumulated for only short periods of several days.Runoff, snowmelt, and frost depths were used as the criteria for determining the degree of agreement between simulated and measured data. The model was calibrated using the 1985-86 data for plot 2. The calibration simulation agreed closely with the measured data. The verification simulations for plots 1 and 3 using the 1985-86 data and for plots 1 and 2 using the 1986-87 data agreed closely with the measured data. The verification simulation for plot 3 using the 1986-87 data did not agree closely. The recalibratlon simulations for plots 1 and 3 using the 1985-86 data Indicated small improvement because the verification simulations for plots 1 and 3 already agreed closely with the measured data.

Application of remote sensing and geographical information system for generation of runoff curve number

Science.gov (United States)

Meshram, S. Gajbhiye; Sharma, S. K.; Tignath, S.

2017-07-01

Watershed is an ideal unit for planning and management of land and water resources (Gajbhiye et al., IEEE international conference on advances in technology and engineering (ICATE), Bombay, vol 1, issue 9, pp 23-25, 2013a; Gajbhiye et al., Appl Water Sci 4(1):51-61, 2014a; Gajbhiye et al., J Geol Soc India (SCI-IF 0.596) 84(2):192-196, 2014b). This study aims to generate the curve number, using remote sensing and geographical information system (GIS) and the effect of slope on curve number values. The study was carried out in Kanhaiya Nala watershed located in Satna district of Madhya Pradesh. Soil map, Land Use/Land cover and slope map were generated in GIS Environment. The CN parameter values corresponding to various soil, land cover, and land management conditions were selected from Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) standard table. Curve number (CN) is an index developed by the NRCS, to represent the potential for storm water runoff within a drainage area. The CN for a drainage basin is estimated using a combination of land use, soil, and antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). In present study effect of slope on CN values were determined. The result showed that the CN unadjusted value are higher in comparison to CN adjusted with slope. Remote sensing and GIS is very reliable technique for the preparation of most of the input data required by the SCS curve number model.

Modeling Rainfall-Runoff Response to Land Use and Land Cover Change in Rwanda (1990–2016

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fidele Karamage

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Stormwater runoff poses serious environmental problems and public health issues in Rwanda, a tropical country that is increasingly suffering from severe floods, landslides, soil erosion and water pollution. Using the WetSpa Extension model, this study assessed the changes in rainfall runoff depth in Rwanda from 1990 to 2016 in response to precipitation and land use changes. Our results show that Rwanda has experienced a significant conversion of natural forest and grassland to cropland and built-up areas. During the period 1990–2016, 7090.02 km2 (64.5% and 1715.26 km2 (32.1% of forest and grassland covers were lost, respectively, while the cropland and built-up areas increased by 135.3% (8503.75 km2 and 304.3% (355.02 km2, respectively. According to our estimates, the land use change effect resulted in a national mean runoff depth increase of 2.33 mm/year (0.38%. Although precipitation change affected the inter-annual fluctuation of runoff, the long-term trend of runoff was dominated by land use change. The top five districts that experienced the annual runoff depth increase (all >3.8 mm/year are Rubavu, Nyabihu, Ngororero, Gakenke, and Musanze. Their annual runoff depths increased at a rate of >3.8 mm/year during the past 27 years, due to severe deforestation (ranging from 62% to 85% and cropland expansion (ranging from 123% to 293%. These areas require high priority in runoff control using terracing in croplands and rainwater harvesting systems such as dam/reservoirs, percolation tanks, storage tanks, etc. The wet season runoff was three times higher than the dry season runoff in Rwanda; appropriate rainwater management and reservation could provide valuable irrigation water for the dry season or drought years (late rainfall onsets or early rainfall cessations. It was estimated that a reservation of 30.5% (3.99 km3 of the runoff in the wet season could meet the cropland irrigation water gap during the dry season in 2016.

Determination of characteristics maximal runoff mountain rivers in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... water) on the rivers of the Crimean Mountains were used materials of observations for long-term period (from the beginning of observations to 2010 inclusive) on 54 of streamflow station with using a the so-called «operator» model for maximum runoff formation. Keywords: maximum runoff; rain floods; hillslope runoff; karst ...

An approximate analytical solution for describing surface runoff and sediment transport over hillslope

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, Wanghai; Wang, Quanjiu; Lin, Henry

2018-03-01

Soil and water loss from farmland causes land degradation and water pollution, thus continued efforts are needed to establish mathematical model for quantitative analysis of relevant processes and mechanisms. In this study, an approximate analytical solution has been developed for overland flow model and sediment transport model, offering a simple and effective means to predict overland flow and erosion under natural rainfall conditions. In the overland flow model, the flow regime was considered to be transitional with the value of parameter β (in the kinematic wave model) approximately two. The change rate of unit discharge with distance was assumed to be constant and equal to the runoff rate at the outlet of the plane. The excess rainfall was considered to be constant under uniform rainfall conditions. The overland flow model developed can be further applied to natural rainfall conditions by treating excess rainfall intensity as constant over a small time interval. For the sediment model, the recommended values of the runoff erosion calibration constant (cr) and the splash erosion calibration constant (cf) have been given in this study so that it is easier to use the model. These recommended values are 0.15 and 0.12, respectively. Comparisons with observed results were carried out to validate the proposed analytical solution. The results showed that the approximate analytical solution developed in this paper closely matches the observed data, thus providing an alternative method of predicting runoff generation and sediment yield, and offering a more convenient method of analyzing the quantitative relationships between variables. Furthermore, the model developed in this study can be used as a theoretical basis for developing runoff and erosion control methods.

Runoff sensitivity to climate change in the Nile River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Hasan, Emad; Tarhule, Aondover; Kirstetter, Pierre-Emmanuel; Clark, Race; Hong, Yang

2018-06-01

In data scarce basins, such as the Nile River Basin (NRB) in Africa, constraints related to data availability, quality, and access often complicate attempts to estimate runoff sensitivity using conventional methods. In this paper, we show that by integrating the concept of the aridity index (AI) (derived from the Budyko curve) and climate elasticity, we can obtain the first order response of the runoff sensitivity using minimal data input and modeling expertise or experience. The concept of runoff elasticity relies on the fact that the energy available for evapotranspiration plays a major role in determining whether the precipitation received within a drainage basin generates runoff. The approach does not account for human impacts on runoff modification and or diversions. By making use of freely available gauge-corrected satellite data for precipitation, temperature, runoff, and potential evapotranspiration, we derived the sensitivity indicator (β) to determine the runoff response to changes in precipitation and temperature for four climatic zones in the NRB, namely, tropical, subtropical, semiarid and arid zones. The proposed sensitivity indicator can be partitioned into different elasticity components i.e: precipitation (εp), potential evapotranspiration (εETp), temperature (εT) and the total elasticity (εtot) . These elasticities allow robust quantification of the runoff response to the potential changes in precipitation and temperature with a high degree of accuracy. Results indicate that the tropical zone is energy-constrained with low sensitivity, (β 1.0) . The subtropical-highland zone moves between energy-limited to water-limited conditions during periods of wet and dry spells with varying sensitivity. The semiarid and arid zones are water limited, with high sensitivity, (β > 1.0) . The calculated runoff elasticities show that a 10% decrease in precipitation leads to a decrease in runoff of between 19% in the tropical zone and 30% in the arid zones

A Theory of Strategic Voting in Runoff Elections

OpenAIRE

Laurent Bouton

2013-01-01

This paper analyzes the properties of runoff electoral systems when voters are strategic. A model of three-candidate runoff elections is presented, and two new features are included: the risk of upset victory in the second round is endogenous, and many types of runoff systems are considered. Three main results emerge. First, runoff elections produce equilibria in which only two candidates receive a positive fraction of the votes. Second, a sincere voting equilibrium does not always exist. Fin...

Adjustment of regional regression models of urban-runoff quality using data for Chattanooga, Knoxville, and Nashville, Tennessee

Science.gov (United States)

Hoos, Anne B.; Patel, Anant R.

1996-01-01

Model-adjustment procedures were applied to the combined data bases of storm-runoff quality for Chattanooga, Knoxville, and Nashville, Tennessee, to improve predictive accuracy for storm-runoff quality for urban watersheds in these three cities and throughout Middle and East Tennessee. Data for 45 storms at 15 different sites (five sites in each city) constitute the data base. Comparison of observed values of storm-runoff load and event-mean concentration to the predicted values from the regional regression models for 10 constituents shows prediction errors, as large as 806,000 percent. Model-adjustment procedures, which combine the regional model predictions with local data, are applied to improve predictive accuracy. Standard error of estimate after model adjustment ranges from 67 to 322 percent. Calibration results may be biased due to sampling error in the Tennessee data base. The relatively large values of standard error of estimate for some of the constituent models, although representing significant reduction (at least 50 percent) in prediction error compared to estimation with unadjusted regional models, may be unacceptable for some applications. The user may wish to collect additional local data for these constituents and repeat the analysis, or calibrate an independent local regression model.

Modelling runoff and erosion for a semi-arid catchment using a multi-scale approach based on hydrological connectivity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lesschen, J.P.; Schoorl, J.M.; Cammeraat, L.H.

2009-01-01

Runoff and erosion processes are often non-linear and scale dependent, which complicate runoff and erosion modelling at the catchment scale. One of the reasons for scale dependency is the influence of sinks, i.e. areas of infiltration and sedimentation, which lower hydrological connectivity and

Added value of distribution in rainfall-runoff models for the Meuse basin

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Boer, T.

2017-01-01

Why do equal precipitation events not lead to equal discharge events across space and time? The easy answer would be because catchments are different, which then leads to the second question: Why do hydrologists often use the same rainfall-runoff model for different catchments? Probably because

Beyond the SCS curve number: A new stochastic spatial runoff approach

Science.gov (United States)

Bartlett, M. S., Jr.; Parolari, A.; McDonnell, J.; Porporato, A. M.

2015-12-01

The Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) method is the standard approach in practice for predicting a storm event runoff response. It is popular because its low parametric complexity and ease of use. However, the SCS-CN method does not describe the spatial variability of runoff and is restricted to certain geographic regions and land use types. Here we present a general theory for extending the SCS-CN method. Our new theory accommodates different event based models derived from alternative rainfall-runoff mechanisms or distributions of watershed variables, which are the basis of different semi-distributed models such as VIC, PDM, and TOPMODEL. We introduce a parsimonious but flexible description where runoff is initiated by a pure threshold, i.e., saturation excess, that is complemented by fill and spill runoff behavior from areas of partial saturation. To facilitate event based runoff prediction, we derive simple equations for the fraction of the runoff source areas, the probability density function (PDF) describing runoff variability, and the corresponding average runoff value (a runoff curve analogous to the SCS-CN). The benefit of the theory is that it unites the SCS-CN method, VIC, PDM, and TOPMODEL as the same model type but with different assumptions for the spatial distribution of variables and the runoff mechanism. The new multiple runoff mechanism description for the SCS-CN enables runoff prediction in geographic regions and site runoff types previously misrepresented by the traditional SCS-CN method. In addition, we show that the VIC, PDM, and TOPMODEL runoff curves may be more suitable than the SCS-CN for different conditions. Lastly, we explore predictions of sediment and nutrient transport by applying the PDF describing runoff variability within our new framework.

Urban nonpoint source pollution buildup and washoff models for simulating storm runoff quality in the Los Angeles County.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Long; Wei, Jiahua; Huang, Yuefei; Wang, Guangqian; Maqsood, Imran

2011-07-01

Many urban nonpoint source pollution models utilize pollutant buildup and washoff functions to simulate storm runoff quality of urban catchments. In this paper, two urban pollutant washoff load models are derived using pollutant buildup and washoff functions. The first model assumes that there is no residual pollutant after a storm event while the second one assumes that there is always residual pollutant after each storm event. The developed models are calibrated and verified with observed data from an urban catchment in the Los Angeles County. The application results show that the developed model with consideration of residual pollutant is more capable of simulating nonpoint source pollution from urban storm runoff than that without consideration of residual pollutant. For the study area, residual pollutant should be considered in pollutant buildup and washoff functions for simulating urban nonpoint source pollution when the total runoff volume is less than 30 mm. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydrology in a mediterranean mountain environment. The Vallcebre research catchment (north eastern Spain) II. Rainfall-runoff relationships and runoff processes; Hidrologia de un ambiente Mediterraneo de montana. Las cuencas de Vallcebre (Pirineo Oriental) II. Relaciones precipitacion-escorrentia y procesos hidrologicos

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Latron, J.; Solar, M.; Nord, G.; Llorens, P.; Gallart, F.

2009-07-01

Hydrological response and runoff processes have been studied in the Vallcebre research basins (North Eastern Spain) for almost 20 years. Results obtained allowed to build a more complete perceptual model of the hydrological functioning of Mediterranean mountains basins. On a seasonal and monthly scale, there was no simple relationship between rainfall and runoff depths. Monthly rainfall and runoff values revealed the existence of a threshold in the relationship between rainfall and runoff depths. At the event scale, the storm-flow coefficient had a clear seasonal pattern. The effect of the water table position on how rainfall and runoff volumes relate was observed. Examination of soil water potential and water table dynamics during representative floods helped to identify 3 types of characteristic hydrological behaviour during the year. Under dry conditions, runoff was generated essentially as infiltration excess runoff in low permeable areas, whereas saturation excess runoff dominated during wetting-up and wet conditions. During wetting-up transition, saturated areas resulted from the development of scattered perched water tables, whereas in wet conditions they were linked to the rise of the shallow water table. (Author) 8 refs.

STWIR, a microorganism transport with infiltration and runoff add-on module for the KINEROS2 runoff and erosion model: documentation and user manual

Science.gov (United States)

Runoff from manured fields is often considered to be the source of microorganisms in the surface water used for irrigation, recreation, and household needs. Concerns about microbial safety of this water resulted in development of predictive models for estimating the concentrations and total numbers ...

Urban runoff and combined sewer overflow. [Wastewater treatment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moffa, P.E. (Calocerinos and Spina, Liverpool, NY); Freedman, S.D.; Owens, E.M.; Field, R.; Cibik, C.

1982-06-01

The control, treatment and management of urban runoff and sewer overflow are reviewed. Simplified modeling and monitoring techniques are used to characterize urban runoff and to assess control alternatives. (KRM)

An analysis of the benefits of using underground tanks for the storage of stormwater runoff generated at Virginia Department of Transportation maintenance facilities.

Science.gov (United States)

2017-06-01

The Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) collects millions of gallons of runoff at its nearly 300 salt storage : facilities each year, with some portion of this water being reused for the generation of salt brine. Storing this collected storm...

Urban Run-off Volumes Dependency on Rainfall Measurement Method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, L.; Jensen, N. E.; Rasmussen, Michael R.

2005-01-01

Urban run-off is characterized with fast response since the large surface run-off in the catchments responds immediately to variations in the rainfall. Modeling such type of catchments is most often done with the input from very few rain gauges, but the large variation in rainfall over small areas...... resolutions and single gauge rainfall was fed to a MOUSE run-off model. The flow and total volume over the event is evaluated....

Hillslope runoff and sediment transport in south east Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Bracken (Nee Bull), L. J.; Kirkby, M. J.

2003-04-01

Runoff from semi-arid hillslopes in SE Spain is generated very selectively at all scales. Site response at the 1 m2 scale may be described by the dynamics of local infiltration and crusting, defining Hydrologically Similar Surfaces (HYSS), which are strongly associated with soil type and vegetation cover. This study reports the use of several reconnaissance methods to define HYSS consistently. These methods are (1) the use of small sediment traps which disturb the surface minimally,(2) the use of painted lines and (3) the identification of Morphological Zones associated with different levels of runoff and sediment transport. Five monitoring sites were established on hillslope concavities in two semi-arid catchments in South East Spain. Rainfall data were also collected from the nearest gauge established during previous research. Results show that a storm event in the Rambla de Nogalte on the 30th of June of 83.0 mm was responsible for a maximum runoff depth of 12 cm and a maximum hillslope sediment transport of 1886 cm3 m-1. The same storm in the Rambla de Torrealvilla produced 53.4 mm of rainfall on the 1st of July 2002, had a maximum runoff depth of 26 cm and was responsible for a maximum hillslope sediment transport of 2311 cm3 m-1. In general sediment transport rate and sediment travel distance increased with the distance downslope into the hillslope hollow, and these were related to the maximum depth of flow produced over the hillside. Very little sediment movement occurred directly downslope of bushes as was expected. No significant relationships were established between sediment transport and slope angle or vegetation cover. However, sediment transport and depth of runoff varied with lithology, with marl sites producing the most runoff and sediment transport. The site located on red schist was particularly unresponsive to rainfall and did not experience much sediment transport. Initial models for the response of larger areas suggest that runoff is controlled

Impact of Climate Change on Runoff in the Gilgel Abbay Watershed, the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hailu Sheferaw Ayele

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Hydrological assessment is critical to the successful implementation of adaption measures. In this study, projections of seven global circulation models (GCMs associated with high and medium–low Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 for the period 2021–2040 and 2081–2100 were adopted to assess changes on runoffs in the Gilgel Abbay watershed, the upper Blue Nile basin. A weather generator was employed to generate daily temperature and precipitation to drive a hydrological model for impact assessment. Despite the projected magnitude of changes varied among different GCMs and RCPs, increasing runoffs in wet-season and decreasing in dry-season are observed in both periods, mainly attributed to the change in projected precipitation. Such changes are profound in cases of RCP 8.5 with respect to those of RCP 4.5 and in cases of 2081–2100 with respect to those of 2021–2040. Although the increasing runoffs would provide greater inflow to Lake Tana, the increase of precipitation in wet-season would imply a higher possibility of flash floods. On the other hand, decrease runoffs in dry-season further intensify existing shortage of irrigation water demand. These changes will have deleterious consequences on the economic wellbeing of the country and require successful implementation of adaption measures to reduce vulnerability.

Interception of rainfall and surface runoff in the Brazilian Cerrado

Science.gov (United States)

Tarso Oliveira, Paulo; Wendland, Edson; Nearing, Mark; Perea Martins, João

2014-05-01

The Brazilian Cerrado plays a fundamental role in water resources dynamics because it distributes fresh water to the largest basins in Brazil and South America. In recent decades, the native Cerrado vegetation has increasingly been replaced by agricultural crops and pasture. These land cover and land use changes have altered the hydrological processes. Meanwhile, little is known about the components of the water balance in the Brazilian Cerrado, mainly because the experimental field studies in this region are scarce or nonexistent. The objective of this study was to evaluate two hydrological processes under native Cerrado vegetation, the canopy interception (CI) and the surface runoff (R). The Cerrado physiognomy was classified as "cerrado sensu stricto denso" with an absolute density of 15,278 trees ha-1, and a basal area of 11.44 m2 ha-1. We measured the gross rainfall (P) from an automated tipping bucket rain gauge (model TB4) located in a tower with 11 m of height on the Cerrado. Throughfall (TF) was obtained from 15 automated tipping bucket rain gauges (model Davis) spread below the Cerrado vegetation and randomly relocated every month during the wet season. Stemflow (SF) was measured on 12 trees using a plastic hose wrapped around the trees trunks, sealed with neutral silicone sealant, and a bucket to store the water. The canopy interception was computed by the difference between P and the sum of TF and SF. Surface runoff under undisturbed Cerrado was collected in three plots of 100 m2(5 x 20 m) in size and slope steepness of approximately 0.09 m m-1. The experimental study was conducted between January 2012 and November 2013. We found TF of 81.0% of P and SF of 1.6% of P, i.e. the canopy interception was calculated at 17.4% of P. There was a statistically significant correlation (p 0.8. Our results suggest that the rainfall intensity, the characteristics of the trees trunks (crooked and twisted) and stand structure are the main factors that have influenced

Multi-catchment rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme flood estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Paquet, Emmanuel

2017-04-01

The SCHADEX method (Paquet et al., 2013) is a reference method in France for the estimation of extreme flood for dam design. The method is based on a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation process: hundreds of different rainy events, randomly drawn up to extreme values, are simulated independently in the hydrological conditions of each day when a rainy event has been actually observed. This allows generating an exhaustive set of crossings between precipitation and soil saturation hazards, and to build a complete distribution of flood discharges up to extreme quantiles. The hydrological model used within SCHADEX, the MORDOR model (Garçon, 1996), is a lumped model, which implies that hydrological processes, e.g. rainfall and soil saturation, are supposed to be homogeneous throughout the catchment. Snow processes are nevertheless represented in relation with altitude. This hypothesis of homogeneity is questionable especially as the size of the catchment increases, or in areas of highly contrasted climatology (like mountainous areas). Conversely, modeling the catchment with a fully distributed approach would cause different problems, in particular distributing the rainfall-runoff model parameters trough space, and within the SCHADEX stochastic framework, generating extreme rain fields with credible spatio-temporal features. An intermediate solution is presented here. It provides a better representation of the hydro-climatic diversity of the studied catchment (especially regarding flood processes) while keeping the SCHADEX simulation framework. It consists in dividing the catchment in several, more homogeneous sub-catchments. Rainfall-runoff models are parameterized individually for each of them, using local discharge data if available. A first SCHADEX simulation is done at the global scale, which allows assigning a probability to each simulated event, mainly based on the global areal rainfall drawn for the event (see Paquet el al., 2013 for details). Then the

The immediate effectiveness of barley straw mulch in reducing soil erodibility and surface runoff generation in Mediterranean vineyards.

Science.gov (United States)

Prosdocimi, Massimo; Jordán, Antonio; Tarolli, Paolo; Keesstra, Saskia; Novara, Agata; Cerdà, Artemi

2016-03-15

Soil and water loss in agriculture is a major problem throughout the world, and especially in Mediterranean areas. Non-conservation agricultural practices have further aggravated the situation, especially in vineyards, which are affected by one of the highest rates of soil loss among cultivated lands. Therefore, it is necessary to find the right soil practices for more sustainable viticulture. In this regard, straw mulching has proven to be effective in other crop and fire affected soils, but, nonetheless, little research has been carried out in vineyards. This research tests the effect of barley straw mulching on soil erosion and surface runoff on vineyards in Eastern Spain where the soil and water losses are non-sustainable. An experiment was setup using rainfall simulation tests at 55 mm h(-1) over 1h on forty paired plots of 0.24 m(2): twenty bare and twenty straw covered. Straw cover varied from 48 to 90% with a median value of 59% as a result of the application of 75 g of straw per m(2). The use of straw mulch resulted in delayed ponding and runoff generation and, as a consequence, the median water loss decreased from 52.59 to 39.27% of the total rainfall. The straw cover reduced the median sediment concentration in runoff from 9.8 to 3.0 g L(-1) and the median total sediment detached from 70.34 to 15.62 g per experiment. The median soil erosion rate decreased from 2.81 to 0.63 Mg ha(-1)h(-1) due to the straw mulch protection. Straw mulch is very effective in reducing soil erodibility and surface runoff, and this benefit was achieved immediately after the application of the straw. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integration of aspect and slope in snowmelt runoff modeling in a mountain watershed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shalamu Abudu

2016-10-01

Full Text Available This study assessed the performances of the traditional temperature-index snowmelt runoff model (SRM and an SRM model with a finer zonation based on aspect and slope (SRM + AS model in a data-scarce mountain watershed in the Urumqi River Basin, in Northwest China. The proposed SRM + AS model was used to estimate the melt rate with the degree-day factor (DDF through the division of watershed elevation zones based on aspect and slope. The simulation results of the SRM + AS model were compared with those of the traditional SRM model to identify the improvements of the SRM + AS model's performance with consideration of topographic features of the watershed. The results show that the performance of the SRM + AS model has improved slightly compared to that of the SRM model. The coefficients of determination increased from 0.73, 0.69, and 0.79 with the SRM model to 0.76, 0.76, and 0.81 with the SRM + AS model during the simulation and validation periods in 2005, 2006, and 2007, respectively. The proposed SRM + AS model that considers aspect and slope can improve the accuracy of snowmelt runoff simulation compared to the traditional SRM model in mountain watersheds in arid regions by proper parameterization, careful input data selection, and data preparation.

Bivariate Rainfall and Runoff Analysis Using Shannon Entropy Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Rahimi, A.; Zhang, L.

2012-12-01

Rainfall-Runoff analysis is the key component for many hydrological and hydraulic designs in which the dependence of rainfall and runoff needs to be studied. It is known that the convenient bivariate distribution are often unable to model the rainfall-runoff variables due to that they either have constraints on the range of the dependence or fixed form for the marginal distributions. Thus, this paper presents an approach to derive the entropy-based joint rainfall-runoff distribution using Shannon entropy theory. The distribution derived can model the full range of dependence and allow different specified marginals. The modeling and estimation can be proceeded as: (i) univariate analysis of marginal distributions which includes two steps, (a) using the nonparametric statistics approach to detect modes and underlying probability density, and (b) fitting the appropriate parametric probability density functions; (ii) define the constraints based on the univariate analysis and the dependence structure; (iii) derive and validate the entropy-based joint distribution. As to validate the method, the rainfall-runoff data are collected from the small agricultural experimental watersheds located in semi-arid region near Riesel (Waco), Texas, maintained by the USDA. The results of unviariate analysis show that the rainfall variables follow the gamma distribution, whereas the runoff variables have mixed structure and follow the mixed-gamma distribution. With this information, the entropy-based joint distribution is derived using the first moments, the first moments of logarithm transformed rainfall and runoff, and the covariance between rainfall and runoff. The results of entropy-based joint distribution indicate: (1) the joint distribution derived successfully preserves the dependence between rainfall and runoff, and (2) the K-S goodness of fit statistical tests confirm the marginal distributions re-derived reveal the underlying univariate probability densities which further

Impact of Cryosphere Hydrological Changes on the River Runoff in the Tibetan Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Y.; Yang, D.

2015-12-01

The Tibetan Plateau is the headwaters of many major rivers in Asia, the change in streamflow is significant for social and economic development and natural ecology in the middle and lower reaches. Located in the alpine region, streamflow in the plateau is mainly affected by the cryosphere hydrological processes. Due to global warming in recent decades, the Tibetan Plateau is experiencing glaciers shrinking and permafrost degradation. Accelerated glacier melt led to the increasing meltwater, thus affecting the streamflow. Permafrost is an important factor in stabilizing the water cycle and streamflow, the ecological degradation and the significant changes of rivers, lakes, swamps, wetlands and other hydrological environment in recent decades in the Tibetan plateau is closely related to permafrost degradation. Therefore, it is important to explore the impact of cryosphere hydrological changes on the streamflow for the future water management. This study uses a method of base flow separation and a stepwise multiple regression model to investigate the reasons for the runoff changes in different regions of the Tibetan Plateau during 1960-2000. The contribution of glacier melt to annual runoff is particularly estimated to explore the possible influences of soil freezing and thawing on annual runoff changes. The results show an increasing trend of the annual runoff in the upstream of Nujiang River, Lancang River and Qilian Mountains, dominated by the increasing of base flow; and a decreasing trend of the runoff in the upper reach of the Yarlung Zangbo River, Yellow River and Yangtze River, dominated by the reduction of quick flow. Change in the amount of runoff was mainly due to change in precipitation. Rising temperature accelerates the melting of glaciers and increases the summer quick flow. In addition, rising temperature may reduce the quick flow and increase the base flow due to change of the active permafrost layers, which leads to the increase of soil water storage

Propagation of soil moisture memory to runoff and evapotranspiration

Science.gov (United States)

Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2012-10-01

As a key variable of the land-climate system soil moisture is a main driver of runoff and evapotranspiration under certain conditions. Soil moisture furthermore exhibits outstanding memory (persistence) characteristics. Also for runoff many studies report distinct low frequency variations that represent a memory. Using data from over 100 near-natural catchments located across Europe we investigate in this study the connection between soil moisture memory and the respective memory of runoff and evapotranspiration on different time scales. For this purpose we use a simple water balance model in which dependencies of runoff (normalized by precipitation) and evapotranspiration (normalized by radiation) on soil moisture are fitted using runoff observations. The model therefore allows to compute memory of soil moisture, runoff and evapotranspiration on catchment scale. We find considerable memory in soil moisture and runoff in many parts of the continent, and evapotranspiration also displays some memory on a monthly time scale in some catchments. We show that the memory of runoff and evapotranspiration jointly depend on soil moisture memory and on the strength of the coupling of runoff and evapotranspiration to soil moisture. Furthermore we find that the coupling strengths of runoff and evapotranspiration to soil moisture depend on the shape of the fitted dependencies and on the variance of the meteorological forcing. To better interpret the magnitude of the respective memories across Europe we finally provide a new perspective on hydrological memory by relating it to the mean duration required to recover from anomalies exceeding a certain threshold.

Surface Runoff of Pesticides from a Clay Loam Field in Sweden.

Science.gov (United States)

Larsbo, Mats; Sandin, Maria; Jarvis, Nick; Etana, Ararso; Kreuger, Jenny

2016-07-01

Pesticides stored at or close to the soil surface after field application can be mobilized and transported off the field when surface runoff occurs. The objective of our study was to quantify the potential pesticide losses in surface runoff from a conventionally managed agricultural field in a Swedish climate. This was achieved by measuring surface runoff volumes and concentrations in runoff of six spring-applied pesticides and autumn-applied glyphosate and its metabolite aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA). Measurements were performed for 3 yr both during the growing seasons and during intervening winter snowmelt periods on a clay loam field close to Uppsala. During growing seasons, surface runoff was generated on only five occasions during one 25-d period in 2012 when the infiltration capacity of the soil may have been reduced by structural degradation due to large cumulative rainfall amounts after harrowing. Concentrations in surface runoff exceeded Swedish water quality standards in all samples during this growing season for diflufenican and pirimicarb. Surface runoff was generated during three snowmelt periods during the winter of 2012-2013. All of the applied pesticides were found in snowmelt samples despite incorporation of residues by autumn plowing, degradation, and leaching into the soil profile during the period between spraying and sampling. Concentrations of glyphosate ranged from 0.12 to 7.4 μg L, and concentrations of AMPA ranged from 0 to 2.7 μg L. Our results indicate that temporal changes in hydraulic properties during the growing season and when the soil freezes during winter affect pesticide losses through surface runoff. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Global evaluation of runoff from ten state-of-the-art hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, Hylke; de Roo, Ad; van Dijk, Albert; Schellekens, Jaap; Dutra, Emanuel; Fink, Gabriel; Orth, Rene

2016-04-01

Observed streamflow data from 966 medium sized catchments (1000 to 5000 km2) around the globe were used to comprehensively evaluate the daily runoff estimates (1979-2012) of six global hydrological models (GHMs) and four land surface models (LSMs) produced as part of Tier-1 of the eartH2Observe project. The models were all driven by the WATCH Forcing Data ERA-Interim (WFDEI) meteorological dataset, but used different datasets for non-meteorologic inputs and were run at various spatial and temporal resolutions, although all data were re-sampled to a common 0.5° spatial and daily temporal resolution. For the evaluation, we used a broad range of performance metrics related to important aspects of the hydrograph. We found pronounced inter-model performance differences, underscoring the importance of hydrological model uncertainty in addition to climate input uncertainty, for example in studies assessing the hydrological impacts of climate change. The (uncalibrated) GHMs were found to perform better than the LSMs in snow-dominated regions, and the ensemble mean was found to perform only slightly worse than the best (calibrated) model. The models generally showed an early bias in the spring snowmelt peak. We further found that, despite adjustments using gauge observations, the WFDEI precipitation data still contain substantial biases which propagate in the simulated runoff. Overall, more effort should be devoted to calibrating and regionalizing the parameters of macro-scale models.

Detection and attribution of nitrogen runoff trend in China's croplands.

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Xikang; Zhan, Xiaoying; Zhou, Feng; Yan, Xiaoyuan; Gu, Baojing; Reis, Stefan; Wu, Yali; Liu, Hongbin; Piao, Shilong; Tang, Yanhong

2018-03-01

Reliable detection and attribution of changes in nitrogen (N) runoff from croplands are essential for designing efficient, sustainable N management strategies for future. Despite the recognition that excess N runoff poses a risk of aquatic eutrophication, large-scale, spatially detailed N runoff trends and their drivers remain poorly understood in China. Based on data comprising 535 site-years from 100 sites across China's croplands, we developed a data-driven upscaling model and a new simplified attribution approach to detect and attribute N runoff trends during the period of 1990-2012. Our results show that N runoff has increased by 46% for rice paddy fields and 31% for upland areas since 1990. However, we acknowledge that the upscaling model is subject to large uncertainties (20% and 40% as coefficient of variation of N runoff, respectively). At national scale, increased fertilizer application was identified as the most likely driver of the N runoff trend, while decreased irrigation levels offset to some extent the impact of fertilization increases. In southern China, the increasing trend of upland N runoff can be attributed to the growth in N runoff rates. Our results suggested that increased SOM led to the N runoff rate growth for uplands, but led to a decline for rice paddy fields. In combination, these results imply that improving management approaches for both N fertilizer use and irrigation is urgently required for mitigating agricultural N runoff in China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of initial soil moisture conditions for event-based rainfall-runoff modelling

OpenAIRE

Tramblay, Yves; Bouvier, Christophe; Martin, C.; Didon-Lescot, J. F.; Todorovik, D.; Domergue, J. M.

2010-01-01

Flash floods are the most destructive natural hazards that occur in the Mediterranean region. Rainfall-runoff models can be very useful for flash flood forecasting and prediction. Event-based models are very popular for operational purposes, but there is a need to reduce the uncertainties related to the initial moisture conditions estimation prior to a flood event. This paper aims to compare several soil moisture indicators: local Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) measurements of soil moisture,...

Simulation of daily streamflow for nine river basins in eastern Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

Science.gov (United States)

Haj, Adel E.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Hutchinson, Kasey J.

2015-10-14

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for nine river basins in eastern Iowa that drain into the Mississippi River. The models are part of a suite of methods for estimating daily streamflow at ungaged sites. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed- parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration and validation periods used in each basin mostly were October 1, 2002, through September 30, 2012, but differed depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations.

Evaluating MODIS snow products for modelling snowmelt runoff: Case study of the Rio Grande headwaters

Science.gov (United States)

Steele, Caitriana; Dialesandro, John; James, Darren; Elias, Emile; Rango, Albert; Bleiweiss, Max

2017-12-01

Snow-covered area (SCA) is a key variable in the Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM) and in other models for simulating discharge from snowmelt. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM), Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM +) or Operational Land Imager (OLI) provide remotely sensed data at an appropriate spatial resolution for mapping SCA in small headwater basins, but the temporal resolution of the data is low and may not always provide sufficient cloud-free dates. The coarser spatial resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) offers better temporal resolution and in cloudy years, MODIS data offer the best alternative for mapping snow cover when finer spatial resolution data are unavailable. However, MODIS' coarse spatial resolution (500 m) can obscure fine spatial patterning in snow cover and some MODIS products are not sensitive to end-of-season snow cover. In this study, we aimed to test MODIS snow products for use in simulating snowmelt runoff from smaller headwater basins by a) comparing maps of TM and MODIS-based SCA and b) determining how SRM streamflow simulations are changed by the different estimates of seasonal snow depletion. We compared gridded MODIS snow products (Collection 5 MOD10A1 fractional and binary SCA; SCA derived from Collection 6 MOD10A1 Normalised Difference Snow Index (NDSI) Snow Cover), and the MODIS Snow Covered-Area and Grain size retrieval (MODSCAG) canopy-corrected fractional SCA (SCAMG), with reference SCA maps (SCAREF) generated from binary classification of TM imagery. SCAMG showed strong agreement with SCAREF; excluding true negatives (where both methods agreed no snow was present) the median percent difference between SCAREF and SCAMG ranged between -2.4% and 4.7%. We simulated runoff for each of the four study years using SRM populated with and calibrated for snow depletion curves derived from SCAREF. We then substituted in each of the MODIS-derived depletion curves. With efficiency coefficients ranging between 0.73 and 0.93, SRM

Variability of Measured Runoff and Soil Loss from Field Plots

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Asadzadeh

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Field plots are widely used in studies related to the measurements of soil loss and modeling of erosion processes. Research efforts are needed to investigate factors affecting the data quality of plots. Spatial scale or size of plots is one of these factors which directly affects measuring runoff and soil loss by means of field plots. The effect of plot size on measured runoff or soil loss from natural plots is known as plot scale effect. On the other hand, variability of runoff and sediment yield from replicated filed plots is a main source of uncertainty in measurement of erosion from plots which should be considered in plot data interpretation processes. Therefore, there is a demand for knowledge of soil erosion processes occurring in plots of different sizes and of factors that determine natural variability, as a basis for obtaining soil loss data of good quality. This study was carried out to investigate the combined effects of these two factors by measurement of runoff and soil loss from replicated plots with different sizes. Materials and Methods: In order to evaluate the variability of runoff and soil loss data seven plots, differing in width and length, were constructed in a uniform slope of 9% at three replicates at Koohin Research Station in Qazvin province. The plots were ploughed up to down slope in September 2011. Each plot was isolated using soil beds with a height of 30 cm, to direct generated surface runoff to the lower part of the plots. Runoff collecting systems composed of gutters, pipes and tankswere installed at the end of each plot. During the two-year study period of 2011-2012, plots were maintained in bare conditions and runoff and soil loss were measured for each single event. Precipitation amounts and characteristics were directly measured by an automatic recording tipping-bucket rain gauge located about 200 m from the experimental plots. The entire runoff volume including eroded sediment was measured on

Assessing the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) pollution of urban stormwater runoff: a dynamic modeling approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Yi; Lin, Zhongrong; Li, Hao; Ge, Yan; Zhang, Wei; Ye, Youbin; Wang, Xuejun

2014-05-15

Urban stormwater runoff delivers a significant amount of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), mostly of atmospheric origin, to receiving water bodies. The PAH pollution of urban stormwater runoff poses serious risk to aquatic life and human health, but has been overlooked by environmental modeling and management. This study proposed a dynamic modeling approach for assessing the PAH pollution and its associated environmental risk. A variable time-step model was developed to simulate the continuous cycles of pollutant buildup and washoff. To reflect the complex interaction among different environmental media (i.e. atmosphere, dust and stormwater), the dependence of the pollution level on antecedent weather conditions was investigated and embodied in the model. Long-term simulations of the model can be efficiently performed, and probabilistic features of the pollution level and its risk can be easily determined. The applicability of this approach and its value to environmental management was demonstrated by a case study in Beijing, China. The results showed that Beijing's PAH pollution of road runoff is relatively severe, and its associated risk exhibits notable seasonal variation. The current sweeping practice is effective in mitigating the pollution, but the effectiveness is both weather-dependent and compound-dependent. The proposed modeling approach can help identify critical timing and major pollutants for monitoring, assessing and controlling efforts to be focused on. The approach is extendable to other urban areas, as well as to other contaminants with similar fate and transport as PAHs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Models for the runoff from a glaciated catchment area using measurements of environmental isotope contents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Behrens, H.; Moser, H.; Oerter, H.; Rauert, W.; Stichler, W.; Ambach, W.; Kirchlechner, P.

1979-01-01

For several years, in the glaciated catchment area of the Rofenache (Oetztal Alps, Austria), measurements have been made of the environmental isotopes 2 H, 18 O and 3 H in precipitation, snow and ice samples and in the runoff. Furthermore, the electrolytic conductivity of runoff samples was measured and tracing experiments were made with fluorescent dyes. From core samples drilled in the accumulation area of the Vernagtferner, the gross beta activity was investigated and compared with the data from 2 H, 3 H and 18 O analyses and the data from mass balance studies. It is shown that the annual net balance from previous years can be recovered on temperate glaciers using environmental isotope techniques. From the diurnal variations of the 2 H and 3 H contents and the electrolytic conductivity, the following proportions in the runoff of the Vernagtferner catchment area were obtained during a 24-hour interval at a time of strong ablation (August 1976): about 50% ice meltwater, 25% direct runoff of firn and snow meltwater, and 7% of mineralized groundwater. The rest of the runoff consists of non-mineralized meltwater seeping from the glacier body. The annual variations of the 2 H and 3 H contents in the runoff of the glaciated catchment area permit conclusions on the time sequence of the individual ablation periods, and on the residence time, on the basis of model concepts. The residence times of approximately 100 days or four years, respectively, are obtained from the decrease in the 2 H content at the end of the ablation period and from the variation of the 3 H content in the winter discharge. (author)

Using a topographic index to distribute variable source area runoff predicted with the SCS curve-number equation

Science.gov (United States)

Lyon, Steve W.; Walter, M. Todd; Gérard-Marchant, Pierre; Steenhuis, Tammo S.

2004-10-01

Because the traditional Soil Conservation Service curve-number (SCS-CN) approach continues to be used ubiquitously in water quality models, new application methods are needed that are consistent with variable source area (VSA) hydrological processes in the landscape. We developed and tested a distributed approach for applying the traditional SCS-CN equation to watersheds where VSA hydrology is a dominant process. Predicting the location of source areas is important for watershed planning because restricting potentially polluting activities from runoff source areas is fundamental to controlling non-point-source pollution. The method presented here used the traditional SCS-CN approach to predict runoff volume and spatial extent of saturated areas and a topographic index, like that used in TOPMODEL, to distribute runoff source areas through watersheds. The resulting distributed CN-VSA method was applied to two subwatersheds of the Delaware basin in the Catskill Mountains region of New York State and one watershed in south-eastern Australia to produce runoff-probability maps. Observed saturated area locations in the watersheds agreed with the distributed CN-VSA method. Results showed good agreement with those obtained from the previously validated soil moisture routing (SMR) model. When compared with the traditional SCS-CN method, the distributed CN-VSA method predicted a similar total volume of runoff, but vastly different locations of runoff generation. Thus, the distributed CN-VSA approach provides a physically based method that is simple enough to be incorporated into water quality models, and other tools that currently use the traditional SCS-CN method, while still adhering to the principles of VSA hydrology.

Beyond the SCS-CN method: A theoretical framework for spatially lumped rainfall-runoff response

Science.gov (United States)

Bartlett, M. S.; Parolari, A. J.; McDonnell, J. J.; Porporato, A.

2016-06-01

Since its introduction in 1954, the Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) method has become the standard tool, in practice, for estimating an event-based rainfall-runoff response. However, because of its empirical origins, the SCS-CN method is restricted to certain geographic regions and land use types. Moreover, it does not describe the spatial variability of runoff. To move beyond these limitations, we present a new theoretical framework for spatially lumped, event-based rainfall-runoff modeling. In this framework, we describe the spatially lumped runoff model as a point description of runoff that is upscaled to a watershed area based on probability distributions that are representative of watershed heterogeneities. The framework accommodates different runoff concepts and distributions of heterogeneities, and in doing so, it provides an implicit spatial description of runoff variability. Heterogeneity in storage capacity and soil moisture are the basis for upscaling a point runoff response and linking ecohydrological processes to runoff modeling. For the framework, we consider two different runoff responses for fractions of the watershed area: "prethreshold" and "threshold-excess" runoff. These occur before and after infiltration exceeds a storage capacity threshold. Our application of the framework results in a new model (called SCS-CNx) that extends the SCS-CN method with the prethreshold and threshold-excess runoff mechanisms and an implicit spatial description of runoff. We show proof of concept in four forested watersheds and further that the resulting model may better represent geographic regions and site types that previously have been beyond the scope of the traditional SCS-CN method.

Runoff Modelling in Urban Storm Drainage by Neural Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Michael R.; Brorsen, Michael; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

1995-01-01

A neural network is used to simulate folw and water levels in a sewer system. The calibration of th neural network is based on a few measured events and the network is validated against measureed events as well as flow simulated with the MOUSE model (Lindberg and Joergensen, 1986). The neural...... network is used to compute flow or water level at selected points in the sewer system, and to forecast the flow from a small residential area. The main advantages of the neural network are the build-in self calibration procedure and high speed performance, but the neural network cannot be used to extract...... knowledge of the runoff process. The neural network was found to simulate 150 times faster than e.g. the MOUSE model....

Assessment of two loss methods for estimation of surface runoff in Zaafrania urban catchment, North-East of Algeria

OpenAIRE

Dahdouh Yacina; Ouerdachi Lahbassi

2018-01-01

Surface runoff is a major problem in urban catchments; its generation is always related to the amount of effective rainfall dropped over the surface, however in urban catchments the process is considerably altered by the emergence of impervious areas. In this study the Soil Consevation Service – curve number (SCS-CN) and the Green–Ampt loss methods were used in rainfall-runoff modelling in the Zaafrania urban catchment which is located in Annaba city in the north east of Algeria. The two loss...

Simulation of daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

Science.gov (United States)

Christiansen, Daniel E.; Haj, Adel E.; Risley, John C.

2017-10-24

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa that drain into the Missouri River. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration periods for each basin varied depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations.A geographic information system tool was used to delineate each basin and estimate initial values for model parameters based on basin physical and geographical features. A U.S. Geological Survey automatic calibration tool that uses a shuffled complex evolution algorithm was used for initial calibration, and then manual modifications were made to parameter values to complete the calibration of each basin model. The main objective of the calibration was to match daily discharge values of simulated streamflow to measured daily discharge values. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was calibrated at 42 sites located in the 12 river basins in western Iowa.The accuracy of the simulated daily streamflow values at the 42 calibration sites varied by river and by site. The models were satisfactory at 36 of the sites based on statistical results. Unsatisfactory performance at the six other sites can be attributed to several factors: (1) low flow, no flow, and flashy flow conditions in headwater subbasins having a small drainage area; (2) poor representation of the groundwater and storage components of flow within a basin; (3) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and water use; and (4) limited availability and accuracy of meteorological input data. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

Global evaluation of runoff from 10 state-of-the-art hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, Hylke E.; van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; de Roo, Ad; Dutra, Emanuel; Fink, Gabriel; Orth, Rene; Schellekens, Jaap

2017-06-01

Observed streamflow data from 966 medium sized catchments (1000-5000 km2) around the globe were used to comprehensively evaluate the daily runoff estimates (1979-2012) of six global hydrological models (GHMs) and four land surface models (LSMs) produced as part of tier-1 of the eartH2Observe project. The models were all driven by the WATCH Forcing Data ERA-Interim (WFDEI) meteorological dataset, but used different datasets for non-meteorologic inputs and were run at various spatial and temporal resolutions, although all data were re-sampled to a common 0. 5° spatial and daily temporal resolution. For the evaluation, we used a broad range of performance metrics related to important aspects of the hydrograph. We found pronounced inter-model performance differences, underscoring the importance of hydrological model uncertainty in addition to climate input uncertainty, for example in studies assessing the hydrological impacts of climate change. The uncalibrated GHMs were found to perform, on average, better than the uncalibrated LSMs in snow-dominated regions, while the ensemble mean was found to perform only slightly worse than the best (calibrated) model. The inclusion of less-accurate models did not appreciably degrade the ensemble performance. Overall, we argue that more effort should be devoted on calibrating and regionalizing the parameters of macro-scale models. We further found that, despite adjustments using gauge observations, the WFDEI precipitation data still contain substantial biases that propagate into the simulated runoff. The early bias in the spring snowmelt peak exhibited by most models is probably primarily due to the widespread precipitation underestimation at high northern latitudes.

Modeling the impacts of wildfire on runoff and pollutant transport from coastal watersheds to the nearshore environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Morrison, Katherine D; Kolden, Crystal A

2015-03-15

Wildfire is a common disturbance that can significantly alter vegetation in watersheds and affect the rate of sediment and nutrient transport to adjacent nearshore oceanic environments. Changes in runoff resulting from heterogeneous wildfire effects are not well-understood due to both limitations in the field measurement of runoff and temporally-limited spatial data available to parameterize runoff models. We apply replicable, scalable methods for modeling wildfire impacts on sediment and nonpoint source pollutant export into the nearshore environment, and assess relationships between wildfire severity and runoff. Nonpoint source pollutants were modeled using a GIS-based empirical deterministic model parameterized with multi-year land cover data to quantify fire-induced increases in transport to the nearshore environment. Results indicate post-fire concentration increases in phosphorus by 161 percent, sediments by 350 percent and total suspended solids (TSS) by 53 percent above pre-fire years. Higher wildfire severity was associated with the greater increase in exports of pollutants and sediment to the nearshore environment, primarily resulting from the conversion of forest and shrubland to grassland. This suggests that increasing wildfire severity with climate change will increase potential negative impacts to adjacent marine ecosystems. The approach used is replicable and can be utilized to assess the effects of other types of land cover change at landscape scales. It also provides a planning and prioritization framework for management activities associated with wildfire, including suppression, thinning, and post-fire rehabilitation, allowing for quantification of potential negative impacts to the nearshore environment in coastal basins. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A 3-step framework for understanding the added value of surface soil moisture measurements for large-scale runoff prediction via data assimilation - a synthetic study in the Arkansas-Red River basin

Science.gov (United States)

Mao, Y.; Crow, W. T.; Nijssen, B.

2017-12-01

Soil moisture (SM) plays an important role in runoff generation both by partitioning infiltration and surface runoff during rainfall events and by controlling the rate of subsurface flow during inter-storm periods. Therefore, more accurate SM state estimation in hydrologic models is potentially beneficial for streamflow prediction. Various previous studies have explored the potential of assimilating SM data into hydrologic models for streamflow improvement. These studies have drawn inconsistent conclusions, ranging from significantly improved runoff via SM data assimilation (DA) to limited or degraded runoff. These studies commonly treat the whole assimilation procedure as a black box without separating the contribution of each step in the procedure, making it difficult to attribute the underlying causes of runoff improvement (or the lack thereof). In this study, we decompose the overall DA process into three steps by answering the following questions (3-step framework): 1) how much can assimilation of surface SM measurements improve surface SM state in a hydrologic model? 2) how much does surface SM improvement propagate to deeper layers? 3) How much does (surface and deeper-layer) SM improvement propagate into runoff improvement? A synthetic twin experiment is carried out in the Arkansas-Red River basin ( 600,000 km2) where a synthetic "truth" run, an open-loop run (without DA) and a DA run (where synthetic surface SM measurements are assimilated) are generated. All model runs are performed at 1/8 degree resolution and over a 10-year period using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model at a 3-hourly time step. For the DA run, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method is applied. The updated surface and deeper-layer SM states with DA are compared to the open-loop SM to quantitatively evaluate the first two steps in the framework. To quantify the third step, a set of perfect-state runs are generated where the "true" SM states are directly inserted

Efficiency assessment of runoff harvesting techniques using a 3D coupled surface-subsurface hydrological model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verbist, K.; Cronelis, W. M.; McLaren, R.; Gabriels, D.; Soto, G.

2009-01-01

In arid and semi-arid zones runoff harvesting techniques are often applied to increase the water retention and infiltration on steep slopes. Additionally, they act as an erosion control measure to reduce land degradation hazards. Both in literature and in the field, a large variety of runoff collecting systems are found, as well as large variations in design and dimensions. Therefore, detailed measurements were performed on a semi-arid slope in central Chile to allow identification of the effect of a simple water harvesting technique on soil water availability. For this purpose, twenty two TDR-probes were installed and were monitored continuously during and after a simulated rainfall event. These data were used to calibrate the 3D distributed flow model HydroGeoSphere, to assess the runoff components and soil water retention as influenced by the water harvesting technique, both under simulated and natural rainfall conditions. (Author) 6 refs.

Fill and spill drives runoff connectivity over frozen ground

Science.gov (United States)

Coles, A. E.; McDonnell, J. J.

2018-03-01

Snowmelt-runoff processes on frozen ground are poorly understood at the hillslope scale. This is especially true for hillslopes on the northern Great Plains of North America where long periods of snow-covered frozen ground with very shallow slopes mask any spatial patterns and process controls on connectivity and hillslope runoff generation. This study examines a 4.66 ha (46,600 m2) hillslope on the northern Great Plains during the 2014 spring snowmelt season to explore hillslope runoff processes. Specifically, we explore the spatial patterns of runoff production source areas and examine how surface topography and patterns of snow cover, snow water equivalent, soil water content, and thawed layer depth - which we measured on a 10 m grid across our 46,600 m2 hillslope - affect melt water partitioning and runoff connectivity. A key question was whether or not the controls on connectivity are consistent with the fill and spill mechanism found in rain-dominated and unfrozen soil domains. The contrast between the slow infiltration rates into frozen soil and the relatively fast rates of snowmelt delivery to the soil surface resulted in water accumulation in small depressions under the snowpack. Consequently, infiltration was minimal over the 12 day melt period. Instead, nested filling of micro- and meso-depressions was followed by macro-scale, whole-slope spilling. This spilling occurred when large patches of ponded water exceeded the storage capacity behind downslope micro barriers in the surface topography, and flows from them coalesced to drive a rapid increase in runoff at the hillslope outlet. These observations of ponded water and flowpaths followed mapable fill and spill locations based on 2 m resolution digital topographic analysis. Interestingly, while surface topography is relatively unimportant under unfrozen conditions at our site because of low relief and high infiltrability, surface topography shows episodically critical importance for connectivity and

[A review of green roof performance towards management of roof runoff].

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xiao-ping; Huang, Pei; Zhou, Zhi-xiang; Gao, Chi

2015-08-01

Green roof has a significant influence on reducing runoff volume, delaying runoff-yielding time, reducing the peak flow and improving runoff quality. This paper addressed the related research around the world and concluded from several aspects, i.e., the definition of green roof of different types, the mechanism how green roof manages runoff quantity and quality, the ability how green roof controls roof runoff, and the influence factors of green roof toward runoff quantity and quality. Afterwards, there was a need for more future work on research of green roof toward roof runoff, i.e., vegetation selection of green roof, efficient construction model selection of green roof, the regulating characteristics of green roof on roof runoff, the value assessment of green roof on roof runoff, analysis of source-sink function of green roof on the water pollutants of roof runoff and the research on the mitigation measures of roof runoff pollution. This paper provided a guideline to develop green roofs aiming to regulating roof runoff.

Flood modelling with a distributed event-based parsimonious rainfall-runoff model: case of the karstic Lez river catchment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Coustau

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Rainfall-runoff models are crucial tools for the statistical prediction of flash floods and real-time forecasting. This paper focuses on a karstic basin in the South of France and proposes a distributed parsimonious event-based rainfall-runoff model, coherent with the poor knowledge of both evaporative and underground fluxes. The model combines a SCS runoff model and a Lag and Route routing model for each cell of a regular grid mesh. The efficiency of the model is discussed not only to satisfactorily simulate floods but also to get powerful relationships between the initial condition of the model and various predictors of the initial wetness state of the basin, such as the base flow, the Hu2 index from the Meteo-France SIM model and the piezometric levels of the aquifer. The advantage of using meteorological radar rainfall in flood modelling is also assessed. Model calibration proved to be satisfactory by using an hourly time step with Nash criterion values, ranging between 0.66 and 0.94 for eighteen of the twenty-one selected events. The radar rainfall inputs significantly improved the simulations or the assessment of the initial condition of the model for 5 events at the beginning of autumn, mostly in September–October (mean improvement of Nash is 0.09; correction in the initial condition ranges from −205 to 124 mm, but were less efficient for the events at the end of autumn. In this period, the weak vertical extension of the precipitation system and the low altitude of the 0 °C isotherm could affect the efficiency of radar measurements due to the distance between the basin and the radar (~60 km. The model initial condition S is correlated with the three tested predictors (R² > 0.6. The interpretation of the model suggests that groundwater does not affect the first peaks of the flood, but can strongly impact subsequent peaks in the case of a multi-storm event. Because this kind of model is based on a limited

Modeling precipitation-runoff relationships to determine water yield from a ponderosa pine forest watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Assefa S. Desta

2006-01-01

A stochastic precipitation-runoff modeling is used to estimate a cold and warm-seasons water yield from a ponderosa pine forested watershed in the north-central Arizona. The model consists of two parts namely, simulation of the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation using a stochastic, event-based approach and estimation of water yield from the watershed...

Approximating uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield using stochastic replicates of global climate model data

Science.gov (United States)

Peel, M. C.; Srikanthan, R.; McMahon, T. A.; Karoly, D. J.

2015-04-01

Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between global climate models (GCMs) and within a GCM. Within-GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The limited number of runs available for each GCM and scenario combination within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) data sets, limits the assessment of within-GCM uncertainty. In this second of two companion papers, the primary aim is to present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty for monthly precipitation and temperature projections and to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff for climate change impact assessments. A secondary aim is to assess the impact of between-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff. Here we approximate within-GCM uncertainty by developing non-stationary stochastic replicates of GCM monthly precipitation and temperature data. These replicates are input to an off-line hydrologic model to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected annual runoff and reservoir yield. We adopt stochastic replicates of available GCM runs to approximate within-GCM uncertainty because large ensembles, hundreds of runs, for a given GCM and scenario are unavailable, other than the Climateprediction.net data set for the Hadley Centre GCM. To date within-GCM uncertainty has received little attention in the hydrologic climate change impact literature and this analysis provides an approximation of the uncertainty in projected runoff, and reservoir yield, due to within- and between-GCM uncertainty of precipitation and temperature projections. In the companion paper, McMahon et al. (2015) sought to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by removing poorly performing GCMs, resulting in a selection of five better performing GCMs from

Extreme heat and runoff extremes in the Swiss Alps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Zappa

2007-06-01

Full Text Available The hydrological response of Swiss river basins to the 2003 European summer heatwave was evaluated by a combined analysis of historical discharge records and specific applications of distributed hydrological modeling. In the summer of 2003, the discharge from headwater streams of the Swiss Central Plateau was only 40%–60% of the long-term average. For alpine basins runoff was about 60%–80% of the average. Glacierized basins showed the opposite behavior. According to the degree of glacierization, the average summer runoff was close or even above average. The hydrological model PREVAH was applied for the period 1982–2005. Even if the model was not calibrated for such extreme meteorological conditions, it was well able to simulate the hydrological responses of three basins. The aridity index φ describes feedbacks between hydrological and meteorological anomalies, and was adopted as an indicator of hydrological drought. The anomalies of φ and temperature in the summer of 2003 exceeded the 1982–2005 mean by more than 2 standard deviations. Catchments without glaciers showed negative correlations between φ and discharge R. In basins with about 15% glacierization, φ and R were not correlated. River basins with higher glacier percentages showed a positive correlation between φ and R. Icemelt was positively correlated with φ and reduced the variability of discharge with larger amounts of meltwater. Runoff generation from the non-glaciated sub-areas was limited by high evapotranspiration and reduced precipitation. The 2003 summer heatwave could be a precursor to similar events in the near future. Hydrological models and further data analysis will allow the identification of the most sensitive regions where heatwaves may become a recurrent natural hazard with large environmental, social and economical impacts.

Direct measurements of meltwater runoff on the Greenland ice sheet surface.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Laurence C; Yang, Kang; Pitcher, Lincoln H; Overstreet, Brandon T; Chu, Vena W; Rennermalm, Åsa K; Ryan, Jonathan C; Cooper, Matthew G; Gleason, Colin J; Tedesco, Marco; Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth; van As, Dirk; van den Broeke, Michiel R; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Noël, Brice; Langen, Peter L; Cullather, Richard I; Zhao, Bin; Willis, Michael J; Hubbard, Alun; Box, Jason E; Jenner, Brittany A; Behar, Alberto E

2017-12-12

Meltwater runoff from the Greenland ice sheet surface influences surface mass balance (SMB), ice dynamics, and global sea level rise, but is estimated with climate models and thus difficult to validate. We present a way to measure ice surface runoff directly, from hourly in situ supraglacial river discharge measurements and simultaneous high-resolution satellite/drone remote sensing of upstream fluvial catchment area. A first 72-h trial for a 63.1-km 2 moulin-terminating internally drained catchment (IDC) on Greenland's midelevation (1,207-1,381 m above sea level) ablation zone is compared with melt and runoff simulations from HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, RACMO2.3, MERRA-2, and SEB climate/SMB models. Current models cannot reproduce peak discharges or timing of runoff entering moulins but are improved using synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH) theory. Retroactive SUH applications to two older field studies reproduce their findings, signifying that remotely sensed IDC area, shape, and supraglacial river length are useful for predicting delays in peak runoff delivery to moulins. Applying SUH to HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, and RACMO2.3 gridded melt products for 799 surrounding IDCs suggests their terminal moulins receive lower peak discharges, less diurnal variability, and asynchronous runoff timing relative to climate/SMB model output alone. Conversely, large IDCs produce high moulin discharges, even at high elevations where melt rates are low. During this particular field experiment, models overestimated runoff by +21 to +58%, linked to overestimated surface ablation and possible meltwater retention in bare, porous, low-density ice. Direct measurements of ice surface runoff will improve climate/SMB models, and incorporating remotely sensed IDCs will aid coupling of SMB with ice dynamics and subglacial systems. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Direct measurements of meltwater runoff on the Greenland ice sheet surface

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Laurence C.; Yang, Kang; Pitcher, Lincoln H.; Overstreet, Brandon T.; Chu, Vena W.; Rennermalm, Åsa K.; Ryan, Jonathan C.; Cooper, Matthew G.; Gleason, Colin J.; Tedesco, Marco; Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth; van As, Dirk; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Noël, Brice; Langen, Peter L.; Cullather, Richard I.; Zhao, Bin; Willis, Michael J.; Hubbard, Alun; Box, Jason E.; Jenner, Brittany A.; Behar, Alberto E.

2017-12-01

Meltwater runoff from the Greenland ice sheet surface influences surface mass balance (SMB), ice dynamics, and global sea level rise, but is estimated with climate models and thus difficult to validate. We present a way to measure ice surface runoff directly, from hourly in situ supraglacial river discharge measurements and simultaneous high-resolution satellite/drone remote sensing of upstream fluvial catchment area. A first 72-h trial for a 63.1-km2 moulin-terminating internally drained catchment (IDC) on Greenland's midelevation (1,207–1,381 m above sea level) ablation zone is compared with melt and runoff simulations from HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, RACMO2.3, MERRA-2, and SEB climate/SMB models. Current models cannot reproduce peak discharges or timing of runoff entering moulins but are improved using synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH) theory. Retroactive SUH applications to two older field studies reproduce their findings, signifying that remotely sensed IDC area, shape, and supraglacial river length are useful for predicting delays in peak runoff delivery to moulins. Applying SUH to HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, and RACMO2.3 gridded melt products for 799 surrounding IDCs suggests their terminal moulins receive lower peak discharges, less diurnal variability, and asynchronous runoff timing relative to climate/SMB model output alone. Conversely, large IDCs produce high moulin discharges, even at high elevations where melt rates are low. During this particular field experiment, models overestimated runoff by +21 to +58%, linked to overestimated surface ablation and possible meltwater retention in bare, porous, low-density ice. Direct measurements of ice surface runoff will improve climate/SMB models, and incorporating remotely sensed IDCs will aid coupling of SMB with ice dynamics and subglacial systems.

Models for the runoff from a glacierized catchment area using measurements of environmental isotope contents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Behrens, H.; Moser, H.; Oerter, H.; Rauert, W.; Stichler, W.; Ambach, W.; Kirchlechner, P.

1978-01-01

In the glacierized catchment area of the Rofenache (Oetztal Alps, Austria) during several years measurements have been made of the environmental isotopes 2 H, 18 O and 3 H in the precipitation, in snow and ice samples and in the runoff. Furthermore the electrolytic conductivity of runoff samples was measured and tracing experiments were made with fluorescent dyes. From core samples drilled in the accumulation area of the Vernagtferner, the gross beta activity was investigated and compared with both, the data from 2 H, 3 H und 18 O analyses and the data from mass balance studies. It is shown that the annual net balance from previous years can be recovered on temperate glaciers using environmental isotope techniques. From the diurnal variations of the 2 H and 3 H contents and the electrolytic conductivity the following proportions in the runoff of the Vernagtferner catchment area were obtained during a 24-hour interval at a time of strong ablation (August 1976): about 50% of ice melt water, 25% of direct runoff fo firn- and snow melt water, and 7% of mineralized groundwater. The rest of the runoff consists of not mineralized melt water seeping from the glacier body. The annual variations of the 2 H and 3 H contents in the runoff of the glacierized catchment area permit conclusions on the time sequence of the individual ablation periods and on the residence time on the basis of model concepts. The residence times of approximately 100 days or 4 years, respectively, are obtained from the decrease in the 2 H content at the end of the ablation period and from the variation of the 3 H content in the winter discharge. (orig.) [de

Evaluation of Livestock Runoff as a Source of Water Polution in Northern Utah

OpenAIRE

Wieneke, Stephen T.; George, Dennis B.; Filip, Daniel S.; Finney, Brad

1980-01-01

A mathematical model was developed to predict the impact of dairy and beef cattle feedlot runoff on receiving streams. The mathematical expressions used in the model describing runoff quantity and quality were not only a function of single rain or snow precipitation events but also consecutive events prior to the runoff occurrence. The runoff quantity and quality were also a function of feedlot surface. Computer s...

Nonlinear response in runoff magnitude to fluctuating rain patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

Curtu, R; Fonley, M

2015-03-01

The runoff coefficient of a hillslope is a reliable measure for changes in the streamflow response at the river link outlet. A high runoff coefficient is a good indicator of the possibility of flash floods. Although the relationship between runoff coefficient and streamflow has been the subject of much study, the physical mechanisms affecting runoff coefficient including the dependence on precipitation pattern remain open topics for investigation. In this paper, we analyze a rainfall-runoff model at the hillslope scale as that hillslope is forced with different rain patterns: constant rain and fluctuating rain with different frequencies and amplitudes. When an oscillatory precipitation pattern is applied, although the same amount of water may enter the system, its response (measured by the runoff coefficient) will be maximum for a certain frequency of precipitation. The significant increase in runoff coefficient after a certain pattern of rainfall can be a potential explanation for the conditions preceding flash-floods.

Runoff load estimation of particulate and dissolved nitrogen in Lake Inba watershed using continuous monitoring data on turbidity and electric conductivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, J; Nagano, Y; Furumai, H

2012-01-01

Easy-to-measure surrogate parameters for water quality indicators are needed for real time monitoring as well as for generating data for model calibration and validation. In this study, a novel linear regression model for estimating total nitrogen (TN) based on two surrogate parameters is proposed based on evaluation of pollutant loads flowing into a eutrophic lake. Based on their runoff characteristics during wet weather, electric conductivity (EC) and turbidity were selected as surrogates for particulate nitrogen (PN) and dissolved nitrogen (DN), respectively. Strong linear relationships were established between PN and turbidity and DN and EC, and both models subsequently combined for estimation of TN. This model was evaluated by comparison of estimated and observed TN runoff loads during rainfall events. This analysis showed that turbidity and EC are viable surrogates for PN and DN, respectively, and that the linear regression model for TN concentration was successful in estimating TN runoff loads during rainfall events and also under dry weather conditions.

Impact of possible climate changes on river runoff under different natural conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Nasonova, Olga N.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

2018-06-01

The present study was carried out within the framework of the International Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) for 11 large river basins located in different continents of the globe under a wide variety of natural conditions. The aim of the study was to investigate possible changes in various characteristics of annual river runoff (mean values, standard deviations, frequency of extreme annual runoff) up to 2100 on the basis of application of the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) according to four RCP scenarios. Analysis of the obtained results has shown that changes in climatic runoff are different (both in magnitude and sign) for the river basins located in different regions of the planet due to differences in natural (primarily climatic) conditions. The climatic elasticities of river runoff to changes in air temperature and precipitation were estimated that makes it possible, as the first approximation, to project changes in climatic values of annual runoff, using the projected changes in mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation for the river basins. It was found that for most rivers under study, the frequency of occurrence of extreme runoff values increases. This is true both for extremely high runoff (when the projected climatic runoff increases) and for extremely low values (when the projected climatic runoff decreases).

Global evaluation of runoff from 10 state-of-the-art hydrological models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. E. Beck

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Observed streamflow data from 966 medium sized catchments (1000–5000 km2 around the globe were used to comprehensively evaluate the daily runoff estimates (1979–2012 of six global hydrological models (GHMs and four land surface models (LSMs produced as part of tier-1 of the eartH2Observe project. The models were all driven by the WATCH Forcing Data ERA-Interim (WFDEI meteorological dataset, but used different datasets for non-meteorologic inputs and were run at various spatial and temporal resolutions, although all data were re-sampled to a common 0. 5° spatial and daily temporal resolution. For the evaluation, we used a broad range of performance metrics related to important aspects of the hydrograph. We found pronounced inter-model performance differences, underscoring the importance of hydrological model uncertainty in addition to climate input uncertainty, for example in studies assessing the hydrological impacts of climate change. The uncalibrated GHMs were found to perform, on average, better than the uncalibrated LSMs in snow-dominated regions, while the ensemble mean was found to perform only slightly worse than the best (calibrated model. The inclusion of less-accurate models did not appreciably degrade the ensemble performance. Overall, we argue that more effort should be devoted on calibrating and regionalizing the parameters of macro-scale models. We further found that, despite adjustments using gauge observations, the WFDEI precipitation data still contain substantial biases that propagate into the simulated runoff. The early bias in the spring snowmelt peak exhibited by most models is probably primarily due to the widespread precipitation underestimation at high northern latitudes.

Control of fjordic deep water renewal by runoff modification

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edwards, A; Edelsten, D J

1976-09-01

Loch Etive is a Scottish fjord subject to fresh-water run off which renders it markedly brackish. This paper considers the frequency of deep water renewal, developing a model which relates the timing of all such renewals to runoff records. Using the model one can examine the effect of changes caused by interference with the natural runoff pattern.

Simulating high frequency water quality monitoring data using a catchment runoff attenuation flux tool (CRAFT).

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Russell; Quinn, Paul F; Perks, Matthew; Barber, Nicholas J; Jonczyk, Jennine; Owen, Gareth J

2016-12-01

High resolution water quality data has recently become widely available from numerous catchment based monitoring schemes. However, the models that can reproduce time series of concentrations or fluxes have not kept pace with the advances in monitoring data. Model performance at predicting phosphorus (P) and sediment concentrations has frequently been poor with models not fit for purpose except for predicting annual losses. Here, the data from the Eden Demonstration Test Catchments (DTC) project have been used to calibrate the Catchment Runoff Attenuation Flux Tool (CRAFT), a new, parsimonious model developed with the aim of modelling both the generation and attenuation of nutrients and sediments in small to medium sized catchments. The CRAFT has the ability to run on an hourly timestep and can calculate the mass of sediments and nutrients transported by three flow pathways representing rapid surface runoff, fast subsurface drainage and slow groundwater flow (baseflow). The attenuation feature of the model is introduced here; this enables surface runoff and contaminants transported via this pathway to be delayed in reaching the catchment outlet. It was used to investigate some hypotheses of nutrient and sediment transport in the Newby Beck Catchment (NBC) Model performance was assessed using a suite of metrics including visual best fit and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. It was found that this approach for water quality models may be the best assessment method as opposed to using a single metric. Furthermore, it was found that, when the aim of the simulations was to reproduce the time series of total P (TP) or total reactive P (TRP) to get the best visual fit, that attenuation was required. The model will be used in the future to explore the impacts on water quality of different mitigation options in the catchment; these will include attenuation of surface runoff. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating Subcatchment Runoff Coefficients using Weather Radar and a Downstream Runoff Sensor

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ahm, Malte; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Rasmussen, Michael R.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a method for estimating runoff coefficients of urban drainage subcatchments based on a combination of high resolution weather radar data and flow measurements from a downstream runoff sensor. By utilising the spatial variability of the precipitation it is possible to estimate...... the runoff coefficients of the separate subcatchments. The method is demonstrated through a case study of an urban drainage catchment (678 ha) located in the city of Aarhus, Denmark. The study has proven that it is possible to use corresponding measurements of the relative rainfall distribution over...... the catchment and downstream runoff measurements to identify the runoff coefficients at subcatchment level....

Estimating subcatchment runoff coefficients using weather radar and a downstream runoff sensor.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahm, Malte; Thorndahl, Søren; Rasmussen, Michael R; Bassø, Lene

2013-01-01

This paper presents a method for estimating runoff coefficients of urban drainage subcatchments based on a combination of high resolution weather radar data and flow measurements from a downstream runoff sensor. By utilising the spatial variability of the precipitation it is possible to estimate the runoff coefficients of the separate subcatchments. The method is demonstrated through a case study of an urban drainage catchment (678 ha) located in the city of Aarhus, Denmark. The study has proven that it is possible to use corresponding measurements of the relative rainfall distribution over the catchment and downstream runoff measurements to identify the runoff coefficients at subcatchment level.

Simulated runoff at many stream locations in the Methow River Basin, Washington

Science.gov (United States)

Mastin, Mark C.

2015-01-01

A collaborative Bureau of Reclamation-U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) team has been brought together to incorporate a conceptual geomorphic-habitat model with a process-based trophic model to understand the processes important to stream habitat for anadromous fish populations. The Methow River Basin was selected as a test basin for this hybrid geomorphic-habitat/trophic model, and one of the required model inputs is long-term daily runoff at reaches with potential habitat. Leveraging the existence of a watershed model that was constructed for the Methow River Basin by the USGS, the team approached the USGS at the Washington Water Science Center to resurrect the original model and to simulate runoff at many locations in the basin to test the trophic model. Thirteen new flow-routing sites were added to the model, creating a total of 61 sites in the basin where daily runoff was simulated and provided as output. The input file that contains observed meteorological data that drives the watershed model and observed runoff data for comparisons with simulated runoff was extended from water year 2001 to water year 2013 using data from 18 meteorological sites and 12 observed runoff sites. The watershed model included simulation of 16 irrigation diversions that simulated 50-percent water loss through canal seepage. Irrigation was simulated as a constant application of 0.2 inches per day to during the irrigation season, May 1–October 7.

Sampling and chemical analysis of urban street runoff

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daub, J.; Striebel, T.; Robien, A.; Herrmann, R.

1993-01-01

In order to characterize the environmentally relevant physical and chemical properties of urban street runoff, an automatic sampling device was developed. Precipitation samples were collected together with runoff samples. Organic and inorganic compounds were analysed in the runoff. Dissolved and particle bound substances were analysed separately. The concentrations in runoff are generally considerably higher than in precipitation. Concentrations of lead, fluoranthene and benzo(a)pyrene, in particular are higher in runoffs at sites with high traffic densities than at sites with low traffic densities. Preceding dry period normally has no effect on the measured concentrations. The typical chemograph of a dissolved substance shows a maximum at the beginning of the event dropping quickly to a minimum, which often coincides with the maximum in runoff rate. A slight rise is observed with decreasing runoff rates at the end of the event. Applying a mathematical model, chemographs may be described by three terms: - Relatively large amounts of easily soluble material at the beginning of the event decrease with increasing runoff. Conservative behaviour is assumed. - A part which varies inversely to the runoff rate. This term assumes zero-order kinetics; the amount dissolved from surfaces is constant with time. - A small constant term. Concentrations of particle bound substances correlate with amounts of total suspended solids. Frequently a negative correlation between the specific concentration of substances and the concentration of total suspended solids is observed. (orig.) [de

Volumetric runoff coefficients for experimental rural catchments in the Iberian Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Taguas, Encarnación V.; Molina, Cecilio; Nadal-Romero, Estela; Ayuso, José L.; Casalí, Javier; Cid, Patricio; Dafonte, Jorge; Duarte, Antonio C.; Farguell, Joaquim; Giménez, Rafael; Giráldez, Juan V.; Gómez, Helena; Gómez, Jose A.; González-Hidalgo, J. Carlos; Keizer, J. Jacob; Lucía, Ana; Mateos, Luciano; Rodríguez-Blanco, M. Luz; Schnabel, Sussane; Serrano-Muela, M. Pilar

2015-04-01

Analysis of runoff and peaks therein is essential for designing hydraulic infrastructures and for assessing the hydrological implications of likely scenarios of climate and/or land-use change. Different methods are available to calculate runoff coefficients. For instance, the runoff coefficient of a catchment can be described either as the ratio of total depth of runoff to total depth of rainfall or as the ratio of peak flow to rainfall intensity for the time of concentration (Dhakal et al. 2012). If the first definition is considered, runoff coefficients represent the global effect of different features and states of catchments and its determination requires a suitable analysis according to the objectives pursued (Chow et al., 1988). In this work, rainfall-runoff data and physical attributes from small rural catchments located in the Iberian Peninsula (Portugal and Spain) were examined in order to compare the representative values of runoff coefficients using three different approaches: i) statistical analysis of rainfall-runoff data and their quantiles (Dhakal et al., 2012); ii) probabilistic runoff coefficients from the rank-ordered pairs of observed rainfall-runoff data and their relationships with rainfall depths (Schaake et al., 1967); iii) finally, a multiple linear model based on geomorphological attributes. These catchments exhibit great variety with respect to their natural settings, such as climate, topography and lithology. We present a preliminary analysis of the rainfall-runoff relationships as well as their variability in a complex context such as the Iberian Peninsula where contrasted environmental systems coexist. We also discuss reference parameters representing runoff coefficients commonly included into hydrological models. This study is conceived as the first step to explore further working protocols and modeling gaps in a very susceptible area to the climate change such as the Iberian Peninsula's, where the analysis of runoff coefficients is

Ice volume distribution and implications on runoff projections in a glacierized catchment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Gabbi

2012-12-01

Full Text Available A dense network of helicopter-based ground-penetrating radar (GPR measurements was used to determine the ice-thickness distribution in the Mauvoisin region. The comprehensive set of ice-thickness measurements was combined with an ice-thickness estimation approach for an accurate determination of the bedrock. A total ice volume of 3.69 ± 0.31 km³ and a maximum ice thickness of 290 m were found. The ice-thickness values were then employed as input for a combined glacio-hydrological model forced by most recent regional climate scenarios. This model provided glacier evolution and runoff projections for the period 2010–2100. Runoff projections of the measured initial ice volume distribution show an increase in annual runoff of 4% in the next two decades, followed by a persistent runoff decrease until 2100. Finally, we checked the influence of the ice-thickness distribution on runoff projections. Our analyses revealed that reliable estimates of the ice volume are essential for modelling future glacier and runoff evolution. Wrong estimations of the total ice volume might even lead to deviations of the predicted general runoff trend.

Runoff characteristics and non-point source pollution analysis in the Taihu Lake Basin: a case study of the town of Xueyan, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Q D; Sun, J H; Hua, G F; Wang, J H; Wang, H

2015-10-01

Non-point source pollution is a significant environmental issue in small watersheds in China. To study the effects of rainfall on pollutants transported by runoff, rainfall was monitored in Xueyan town in the Taihu Lake Basin (TLB) for over 12 consecutive months. The concentrations of different forms of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), and chemical oxygen demand, were monitored in runoff and river water across different land use types. The results indicated that pollutant loads were highly variable. Most N losses due to runoff were found around industrial areas (printing factories), while residential areas exhibited the lowest nitrogen losses through runoff. Nitrate nitrogen (NO3-N) and ammonia nitrogen (NH4-N) were the dominant forms of soluble N around printing factories and hotels, respectively. The levels of N in river water were stable prior to the generation of runoff from a rainfall event, after which they were positively correlated to rainfall intensity. In addition, three sites with different areas were selected for a case study to analyze trends in pollutant levels during two rainfall events, using the AnnAGNPS model. The modeled results generally agreed with the observed data, which suggests that AnnAGNPS can be used successfully for modeling runoff nutrient loading in this region. The conclusions of this study provide important information on controlling non-point source pollution in TLB.

How much complexity is warranted in a rainfall-runoff model? Findings obtained from symbolic regression, using Eureqa

Science.gov (United States)

Abrahart, R. J.; Beriro, D. J.

2012-04-01

The information content in a rainfall-runoff record is sufficient to support models of only very limited complexity (Jakeman and Hornberger, 1993). This begs the question of what limits should observed data place on the allowable complexity of rainfall-runoff models? Eureqa1 (Schmidt and Lipson, 2009) - pronounced "eureka" - is a software tool for finding equations and detecting mathematical relationships in a dataset. The challenge, for both software and modeller, is to identify, by means of symbolic regression, the simplest mathematical formulas which describe the underlying mechanisms that produced the data. It actually delivers, however, a series of preferred modelling solutions comprising one champion for each specific level of complexity i.e. related to solution enlargement involving the progressive incorporation of additional permitted factors (internal operators/ external drivers). The potential benefit of increased complexity can as a result be assessed in a rational manner. Eureqa is free to download and use; and, in the current study, has been employed to construct a set of rainfall-runoff transfer function models for the Annapolis River at Wilmot, in north-western Nova Scotia, Canada. The climatic conditions in this catchment present an interesting set of modelling challenges; daily variations and seasonal changes in temperature, snowfall and retention result in great difficulty for runoff prediction by means of a data-driven approach. Data from 10 years of daily observations are used in the present study (01/01/2000-31/12/2009): comprising [i] discharge, [ii] total rainfall (excluding snowfall), [iii] total snowfall, [iv] thickness of snow cover, and [v] maximum and [vi] minimum temperature. Precipitation occurs throughout the whole year being slightly lower during summer. Snowfall is common from November until April and rare hurricane weather may occur in autumn. The average maximum temperature is below 0 0C in January and February, but significant

Application and comparison of the SCS-CN-based rainfall-runoff model in meso-scale watershed and field scale

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, L.; Wang, Z.

2010-12-01

Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) based hydrologic model, has widely been used for agricultural watersheds in recent years. However, there will be relative error when applying it due to differentiation of geographical and climatological conditions. This paper introduces a more adaptable and propagable model based on the modified SCS-CN method, which specializes into two different scale cases of research regions. Combining the typical conditions of the Zhanghe irrigation district in southern part of China, such as hydrometeorologic conditions and surface conditions, SCS-CN based models were established. The Xinbu-Qiao River basin (area =1207 km2) and the Tuanlin runoff test area (area =2.87 km2)were taken as the study areas of basin scale and field scale in Zhanghe irrigation district. Applications were extended from ordinary meso-scale watershed to field scale in Zhanghe paddy field-dominated irrigated . Based on actual measurement data of land use, soil classification, hydrology and meteorology, quantitative evaluation and modifications for two coefficients, i.e. preceding loss and runoff curve, were proposed with corresponding models, table of CN values for different landuse and AMC(antecedent moisture condition) grading standard fitting for research cases were proposed. The simulation precision was increased by putting forward a 12h unit hydrograph of the field area, and 12h unit hydrograph were simplified. Comparison between different scales show that it’s more effectively to use SCS-CN model on field scale after parameters calibrated in basin scale These results can help discovering the rainfall-runoff rule in the district. Differences of established SCS-CN model's parameters between the two study regions are also considered. Varied forms of landuse and impacts of human activities were the important factors which can impact the rainfall-runoff relations in Zhanghe irrigation district.

Phosphorus transfer in surface runoff from intensive pasture systems at various scales: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Dougherty, Warwick J; Fleming, Nigel K; Cox, Jim W; Chittleborough, David J

2004-01-01

Phosphorus transfer in runoff from intensive pasture systems has been extensively researched at a range of scales. However, integration of data from the range of scales has been limited. This paper presents a conceptual model of P transfer that incorporates landscape effects and reviews the research relating to P transfer at a range of scales in light of this model. The contribution of inorganic P sources to P transfer is relatively well understood, but the contribution of organic P to P transfer is still relatively poorly defined. Phosphorus transfer has been studied at laboratory, profile, plot, field, and watershed scales. The majority of research investigating the processes of P transfer (as distinct from merely quantifying P transfer) has been undertaken at the plot scale. However, there is a growing need to integrate data gathered at a range of scales so that more effective strategies to reduce P transfer can be identified. This has been hindered by the lack of a clear conceptual framework to describe differences in the processes of P transfer at the various scales. The interaction of hydrological (transport) factors with P source factors, and their relationship to scale, require further examination. Runoff-generating areas are highly variable, both temporally and spatially. Improvement in the understanding and identification of these areas will contribute to increased effectiveness of strategies aimed at reducing P transfers in runoff. A thorough consideration of scale effects using the conceptual model of P transfer outlined in this paper will facilitate the development of improved strategies for reducing P losses in runoff.

The role of environmental parameter (degree day of snowmelt runoff simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ghulam Nabi*, Muhammad Latif, Habib-ur-Rehman and Aftab Hussain Azhar

2011-04-01

Full Text Available The upper Indus basin comprises the high mountains covered with snow and glaciers. So the major portion of flowfrom Indus basin is due to snow and glacier melt runoff. The terrain is difficult to measure the hydrological andhydraulics data. Most of the data is available at catchments outlets. Due to the data constraints Snowmelt RunoffModel (SRM was used to estimate the snow melt runoff in Astor basin during, year 2000. The input data includeddaily temperature, precipitation and division of catchment in to different zones on the basis of elevation difference.The elevation zones were made from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM of the area. The snow depletion curveswere made by Landsat TM satellite data analysis on the monthly basis. The model output was dischargehydrograph. The model performance was tested by calculating the statistical parameters such as coefficient ofefficiency (COE and volume difference in percentage. The COE for simulation was 0.91 which illustrates a goodrelationship between simulated and measured values of runoff. The volume difference (Dv for simulation was 9.01.The statistical test showed that model performance was good. The results of SRM model encouraged to usetemperature index approach for snowmelt runoff estimation in Indus basin.

A Probabilistic Model for Propagating Ungauged Basin Runoff Prediction Variability and Uncertainty Into Estuarine Water Quality Dynamics and Water Quality-Based Management Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, R.; Gronewold, A.; Alameddine, I.; Reckhow, K.

2008-12-01

The latest official assessment of United States (US) surface water quality indicates that pathogens are a leading cause of coastal shoreline water quality standard violations. Rainfall-runoff and hydrodynamic water quality models are commonly used to predict fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) concentrations in these waters and to subsequently identify climate change, land use, and pollutant mitigation scenarios which might improve water quality and lead to reinstatement of a designated use. While decay, settling, and other loss kinetics dominate FIB fate and transport in freshwater systems, previous authors identify tidal advection as a dominant fate and transport process in coastal estuaries. As a result, acknowledging hydrodynamic model input (e.g. watershed runoff) variability and parameter (e.g tidal dynamics parameter) uncertainty is critical to building a robust coastal water quality model. Despite the widespread application of watershed models (and associated model calibration procedures), we find model inputs and parameters are commonly encoded as deterministic point estimates (as opposed to random variables), an approach which effectively ignores potential sources of variability and uncertainty. Here, we present an innovative approach to building, calibrating, and propagating uncertainty and variability through a coupled data-based mechanistic (DBM) rainfall-runoff and tidal prism water quality model. While we apply the model to an ungauged tributary of the Newport River Estuary (one of many currently impaired shellfish harvesting waters in Eastern North Carolina), our model can be used to evaluate water quality restoration scenarios for coastal waters with a wide range of designated uses. We begin by calibrating the DBM rainfall-runoff model, as implemented in the IHACRES software package, using a regionalized calibration approach. We then encode parameter estimates as random variables (in the rainfall-runoff component of our comprehensive model) via the

Developing a stochastic conflict resolution model for urban runoff quality management: Application of info-gap and bargaining theories

Science.gov (United States)

Ghodsi, Seyed Hamed; Kerachian, Reza; Estalaki, Siamak Malakpour; Nikoo, Mohammad Reza; Zahmatkesh, Zahra

2016-02-01

In this paper, two deterministic and stochastic multilateral, multi-issue, non-cooperative bargaining methodologies are proposed for urban runoff quality management. In the proposed methodologies, a calibrated Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used to simulate stormwater runoff quantity and quality for different urban stormwater runoff management scenarios, which have been defined considering several Low Impact Development (LID) techniques. In the deterministic methodology, the best management scenario, representing location and area of LID controls, is identified using the bargaining model. In the stochastic methodology, uncertainties of some key parameters of SWMM are analyzed using the info-gap theory. For each water quality management scenario, robustness and opportuneness criteria are determined based on utility functions of different stakeholders. Then, to find the best solution, the bargaining model is performed considering a combination of robustness and opportuneness criteria for each scenario based on utility function of each stakeholder. The results of applying the proposed methodology in the Velenjak urban watershed located in the northeastern part of Tehran, the capital city of Iran, illustrate its practical utility for conflict resolution in urban water quantity and quality management. It is shown that the solution obtained using the deterministic model cannot outperform the result of the stochastic model considering the robustness and opportuneness criteria. Therefore, it can be concluded that the stochastic model, which incorporates the main uncertainties, could provide more reliable results.

Challenges to Rainfall-Runoff and Transit Time Distribution Modeling Within the Southeastern Coastal Plain, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Decker, P.; Cohen, M. J.; Jawitz, J. W.

2017-12-01

Previous hydrologic studies primarily focus on processes related to montane catchments with significant runoff ratios, low evapotranspiration rates, and reasonably short travel times. There is a significant lack of research for hydrologic processes occurring within the United States Southeastern Coastal Plain landscape where low-relief and high rates of evapotranspiration impact water fluxes. Hydrologic modeling efforts within this region may elucidate possible interactions and timescales of solute travel where much of the landscape is managed for agricultural crops, namely plantation forestry. A long-term paired watershed study carried out in northern Florida monitored two second-order blackwater streams for five years. Rainfall-runoff models for both catchments were created using daily discharge, precipitation, and modeled evapotranspiration as input parameters. Best fit occurred (NSE = 0.8) when the catchments were modeled as two-storage (shallow and deep) reservoirs in parallel and overland flow was allowed to contribute to streamflow in periods were shallow groundwater storage was at capacity. In addition, streamflow and rainfall chloride concentrations were used to model in-variable transit time distributions using spectral methods. In both catchments this transit time was unresolvable because output spectral power exceeded input spectral power, a result assumed to be driven by the evaporative demand of the region. A modeled chloride time series from random input concentration and modeled output through the rainfall-runoff model was used to alter the evaporation ratio. Once evaporation rates equaled known rates found in cool, high-relief catchments, spectral analysis illustrated higher input spectral power and therefore resolvable transit times. Findings from this study illustrate significant effects from evaporation within the catchment - often exceeding the signal from the background catchment process itself. Calculations illustrate a proposed mean transit

Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

1991-12-01

Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.

Use of a scenario-neutral approach to identify the key hydro-meteorological attributes that impact runoff from a natural catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Danlu; Westra, Seth; Maier, Holger R.

2017-11-01

Scenario-neutral approaches are being used increasingly for assessing the potential impact of climate change on water resource systems, as these approaches allow the performance of these systems to be evaluated independently of climate change projections. However, practical implementations of these approaches are still scarce, with a key limitation being the difficulty of generating a range of plausible future time series of hydro-meteorological data. In this study we apply a recently developed inverse stochastic generation approach to support the scenario-neutral analysis, and thus identify the key hydro-meteorological variables to which the system is most sensitive. The stochastic generator simulates synthetic hydro-meteorological time series that represent plausible future changes in (1) the average, extremes and seasonal patterns of rainfall; and (2) the average values of temperature (Ta), relative humidity (RH) and wind speed (uz) as variables that drive PET. These hydro-meteorological time series are then fed through a conceptual rainfall-runoff model to simulate the potential changes in runoff as a function of changes in the hydro-meteorological variables, and runoff sensitivity is assessed with both correlation and Sobol' sensitivity analyses. The method was applied to a case study catchment in South Australia, and the results showed that the most important hydro-meteorological attributes for runoff were winter rainfall followed by the annual average rainfall, while the PET-related meteorological variables had comparatively little impact. The high importance of winter rainfall can be related to the winter-dominated nature of both the rainfall and runoff regimes in this catchment. The approach illustrated in this study can greatly enhance our understanding of the key hydro-meteorological attributes and processes that are likely to drive catchment runoff under a changing climate, thus enabling the design of tailored climate impact assessments to specific

Effect of soil surface roughness on infiltration water, ponding and runoff on tilled soils under rainfall simulation experiments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhao, Longshan; Hou, Rui; Wu, Faqi; Keesstra, Saskia

2018-01-01

Agriculture has a large effect on the properties of the soil and with that on soil hydrology. The partitioning of rainfall into infiltration and runoff is relevant to understand runoff generation, infiltration and soil erosion. Tillage manages soil surface properties and generates soil surface

Sensitivity analysis of Takagi-Sugeno-Kang rainfall-runoff fuzzy models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. P. Jacquin

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the sensitivity analysis of the model parameters of the Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy rainfall-runoff models previously developed by the authors. These models are classified in two types of fuzzy models, where the first type is intended to account for the effect of changes in catchment wetness and the second type incorporates seasonality as a source of non-linearity. The sensitivity analysis is performed using two global sensitivity analysis methods, namely Regional Sensitivity Analysis and Sobol's variance decomposition. The data of six catchments from different geographical locations and sizes are used in the sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity of the model parameters is analysed in terms of several measures of goodness of fit, assessing the model performance from different points of view. These measures include the Nash-Sutcliffe criteria, volumetric errors and peak errors. The results show that the sensitivity of the model parameters depends on both the catchment type and the measure used to assess the model performance.

Lateral, Vertical, and Longitudinal Source Area Connectivity Drive Runoff and Carbon Export Across Watershed Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Zimmer, Margaret A.; McGlynn, Brian L.

2018-03-01

Watersheds are three-dimensional hydrologic systems where the longitudinal expansion/contraction of stream networks, vertical connection/disconnection between shallow and deep groundwater systems, and lateral connectivity of these water sources to streams mediate runoff production and nutrient export. The connectivity of runoff source areas during both baseflow and stormflow conditions and their combined influence on biogeochemical fluxes remain poorly understood. Here we focused on a set of 3.3 and 48.4 ha nested watersheds (North Carolina, USA). These watersheds comprise ephemeral and intermittent runoff-producing headwaters and perennial runoff-producing lowlands. Within these landscape elements, we characterized the timing and magnitude of precipitation, runoff, and runoff-generating flow paths. The active surface drainage network (ASDN) reflected connectivity to, and contributions from, source areas that differed under baseflow and stormflow conditions. The baseflow-associated ASDN expanded and contracted seasonally, driven by the rise and fall of the seasonal water table. Superimposed on this were event-activated source area contributions driven by connectivity to surficial and shallow subsurface flow paths. Frequently activated shallow flow paths also caused increased in-stream dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations with increases in runoff across both watershed scales. The spread and variability within this DOC-runoff relationship was driven by a seasonal depletion of DOC from continual shallow subsurface flow path activation and subsequent replenishment from autumn litterfall. Our findings suggest that hydrobiogeochemical signals at larger watershed outlets can be driven by the expansion, contraction, and connection of lateral, longitudinal, and vertical source areas with distinct runoff generation processes.

GIS-based Approach to Estimate Surface Runoff in Small Catchments: A Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vojtek Matej

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The issue of surface runoff assessment is one of the important and relevant topics of hydrological as well as geographical research. The aim of the paper is therefore to estimate and assess surface runoff on the example of Vyčoma catchment which is located in the Western Slovakia. For this purpose, SCS runoff curve number method, modeling in GIS and remote sensing were used. An important task was the creation of a digital elevation model (DEM, which enters the surface runoff modeling and affects its accuracy. Great attention was paid to the spatial interpretation of land use categories applying aerial imagery from 2013 and hydrological soil groups as well as calculation of maximum daily rainfall with N-year return periods as partial tasks in estimating surface runoff. From the methodological point of view, the importance of the paper can be seen in the use of a simple GIS-based approach to assess the surface runoff conditions in a small catchment.

Calibration of a rainfall-runoff hydrological model and flood simulation using data assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Piacentini, A.; Ricci, S. M.; Thual, O.; Coustau, M.; Marchandise, A.

2010-12-01

Rainfall-runoff models are crucial tools for long-term assessment of flash floods or real-time forecasting. This work focuses on the calibration of a distributed parsimonious event-based rainfall-runoff model using data assimilation. The model combines a SCS-derived runoff model and a Lag and Route routing model for each cell of a regular grid mesh. The SCS-derived runoff model is parametrized by the initial water deficit, the discharge coefficient for the soil reservoir and a lagged discharge coefficient. The Lag and Route routing model is parametrized by the velocity of travel and the lag parameter. These parameters are assumed to be constant for a given catchment except for the initial water deficit and the velocity travel that are event-dependent (landuse, soil type and moisture initial conditions). In the present work, a BLUE filtering technique was used to calibrate the initial water deficit and the velocity travel for each flood event assimilating the first available discharge measurements at the catchment outlet. The advantages of the BLUE algorithm are its low computational cost and its convenient implementation, especially in the context of the calibration of a reduced number of parameters. The assimilation algorithm was applied on two Mediterranean catchment areas of different size and dynamics: Gardon d'Anduze and Lez. The Lez catchment, of 114 km2 drainage area, is located upstream Montpellier. It is a karstic catchment mainly affected by floods in autumn during intense rainstorms with short Lag-times and high discharge peaks (up to 480 m3.s-1 in September 2005). The Gardon d'Anduze catchment, mostly granite and schistose, of 545 km2 drainage area, lies over the departements of Lozère and Gard. It is often affected by flash and devasting floods (up to 3000 m3.s-1 in September 2002). The discharge observations at the beginning of the flood event are assimilated so that the BLUE algorithm provides optimal values for the initial water deficit and the

Fertiliser management effects on dissolved inorganic nitrogen in runoff from Australian sugarcane farms.

Science.gov (United States)

Fraser, Grant; Rohde, Ken; Silburn, Mark

2017-08-01

Dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) movement from Australian sugarcane farms is believed to be a major cause of crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks which have reduced the Great Barrier Reef coral cover by ~21% (1985-2012). We develop a daily model of DIN concentration in runoff based on >200 field monitored runoff events. Runoff DIN concentrations were related to nitrogen fertiliser application rates and decreased after application with time and cumulative rainfall. Runoff after liquid fertiliser applications had higher initial DIN concentrations, though these concentrations diminished more rapidly in comparison to granular fertiliser applications. The model was validated using an independent field dataset and provided reasonable estimates of runoff DIN concentrations based on a number of modelling efficiency score results. The runoff DIN concentration model was combined with a water balance cropping model to investigate temporal aspects of sugarcane fertiliser management. Nitrogen fertiliser application in December (start of wet season) had the highest risk of DIN movement, and this was further exacerbated in years with a climate forecast for 'wet' seasonal conditions. The potential utility of a climate forecasting system to predict forthcoming wet months and hence DIN loss risk is demonstrated. Earlier fertiliser application or reducing fertiliser application rates in seasons with a wet climate forecast may markedly reduce runoff DIN loads; however, it is recommended that these findings be tested at a broader scale.

Change detection of runoff-urban growth relationship in urbanised watershed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abas, Aisya Azizah; Hashim, Mazlan

2014-01-01

Urban growth has negative environmental impacts that create water-based disasters such as flash floods and storm runoff causing billions of dollars worth of damage each year. Due to serious flash floods in urbanised areas of Malaysia, water resource management is a vital issue. This paper reports on a study that has been carried out using remote sensing techniques and hydrological modelling for examining the spatial patterns changes of urban areas and its impacts on surface runoff. The estimation of surface runoff based on the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS CN) method was performed by integrating both remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. Remote sensing is a data sources for monitoring urban growth by quantifying the changes of urban area and its environmental impact are then analysed by using a GIS-based hydrological model. By linking the integrated approach of remote sensing and GIS, the relationship of runoff with urban expansion are further examined. Hence, the changes in runoff due to urbanisation are analysed. This methodology is applied to the central region of Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur, where rapid urban growth has occurred over the last decade. The results showed that there was a significant between spatial patterns of urban growth and estimated runoff depth. The increase in runoff from year 2000, 2006 and 2010 are estimated about five percent

Runoff and Evapotranspiration Sensitivities to a Changing Climate in the Western U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, M.; Xiao, M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

Climate change is likely to alter streamflow seasonal patterns, affect water availability, and otherwise pose challenges to water resources management. It is therefore important to understand how streamflow will respond to changes in climate. Previous studies have mostly focused on runoff sensitivity to precipitation (P) and temperature change, but runoff sensitivity to potential evapotranspiration (PET) is less well understood. In order to investigate how variations in precipitation and PET influence runoff, we conducted both statistical and model-based analyses of 84 near-natural basins in California, Oregon, and Washington. We obtained meteorological forcing data at 1/16 degree spatial resolution for each basin from the University of Washington/UCLA Experimental Surface Water Monitor, and observed runoff data from USGS. For the statistical method, we applied three estimators of the precipitation elasticity of runoff from previous studies. We also estimated the PET elasticity of runoff, using Penman-Monteith reference ET as a surrogate for PET. For the modelling method, we implemented the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) Model, where PET is an explicit input. We performed experiments in which we changed P and PET by 1% individually to examine their effects on runoff, from which we computed the P and PET elasticities. We explore the spatial patterns in the elasticities of runoff and their relationships with basin characteristics and climatology. We also evaluate how well the statistical and model-based results meet the complementary relationship posited by Dooge (based on the Budyko Hypothesis) that the precipitation and PET elasticities of annual runoff should sum to one.

Does runoff or temperature control chemical weathering rates?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eiriksdottir, Eydis Salome; Gislason, Sigurdur Reynir; Oelkers, Eric H.

2011-01-01

Highlights: → The rate chemical weathering is affected by both temperature and runoff. Separating out these two factors is challenging because runoff tends to increase with increasing temperature. → In this study, natural river water samples collected on basaltic catchments over a five year period are used together with experimentally derived dissolution rate model for basaltic glass to pull apart the effects of runoff and temperature. → This study shows that the rate of chemical denudation is controlled by both temperature and runoff, but is dominated by runoff. - Abstract: The rate of chemical denudation is controlled by both temperature and runoff. The relative role of these two factors in the rivers of NE Iceland is determined through the rigorous analysis of their water chemistry over a 5-a period. River catchments are taken to be analogous to laboratory flow reactors; like the fluid in flow reactors, the loss of each dissolved element in river water is the sum of that of the original rainwater plus that added from kinetically controlled dissolution and precipitation reactions. Consideration of the laboratory determined dissolution rate behaviour of basalts and measured water chemistry indicates that the maximum effect of changing temperature on chemical denudation in the NE Icelandic rivers was 5-25% of the total change, whereas that of runoff was 75-95%. The bulk of the increased denudation rates with runoff appear to stem from an increase in reactive surface area for chemical weathering of catchment solids.

[Effect of antecedent dry weather period on urban storm runoff pollution load].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Li-qing; Yin, Cheng-qing; Kong, Ling-li; He, Qing-ci

2007-10-01

Twelve storm events were surveyed at Shilipu catchment in Wuhan City through three-year monitoring regime. The flow discharges, total suspended solids (TSS), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) in runoff were measured to study the mechanism of urban stormwater runoff pollution. The relationship between the event pollution load and the antecedent dry weather period was identified to discuss the influence of the urban surface sanitation management, operation of sewer pipe maintenance and rainfall characteristics on the urban stormwater runoff pollution. It was found that the antecedent dry weather period and runoff amount were the important determining factors in the generation of urban stormwater runoff pollution. The event pollution load was positively correlated to the antecedent dry weather period between two rainfall events (R2 = 0.95, p pollution loads. The best regression equation to estimate pollution load for storm events was developed based on the antecedent dry weather period and runoff depth. Source control including improving urban street sweeping activities and operation of sewer pipe maintenance should be made to reduce the amount of available pollutant over the dry days. It is important alternative to control urban stormwater runoff pollution for Hanyang District.

Soils - Potential Runoff

Data.gov (United States)

Kansas Data Access and Support Center — This digital spatial data set provides information on the spatial distribution of potential runoff-contributing areas in Kansas. Potential runoff-contributing areas...

Nested Tracer Studies In Catchment Hydrology: Towards A Multiscale Understanding of Runoff Generation and Catchment Funtioning

Science.gov (United States)

Soulsby, C.; Rodgers, P.; Malcolm, I. A.; Dunn, S.

Geochemical and isotopic tracers have been shown to have widespread utility in catch- ment hydrology in terms of identifying hydrological source areas and characterising residence time distributions. In many cases application of tracer techniques has pro- vided insights into catchment functioning that could not be obtained from hydromet- ric and/or modelling studies alone. This paper will show how the use of tracers has contributed to an evolving perceptual model of hydrological pathways and runoff gen- eration processes in catchments in the Scottish highlands. In particular the paper will focus on the different insights that are gained at three different scales of analysis; (a) nested sub-catchments within a mesoscale (ca. 200 square kilometers) experimen- tal catchment; (b) hillslope-riparian interactions and (c) stream bed fluxes. Nested hydrometric and hydrochemical monitoring within the mesoscale Feugh catchment identified three main hydrological response units: (i) plateau peatlands which gener- ated saturation overland flow in the catchment headwaters, (ii) steep valley hillslopes which drain from the plateaux into (iii) alluvial and drift aquifers in the valley bottoms. End Member Mixing Analysis (EMMA) in 8 nested sub-catchments indicated that that stream water tracer concentrations can be modelled in terms of 2 dominant runoff pro- cesses; overland flow from the peat and groundwater from the drift aquifers. Ground- water contributions generally increased with catchment size, though this was moder- ated by the characteristics of individual sub-basins, with drift cover being particularly important. Hillslope riparian interactions were also examined using tracers, hydromet- ric data and a semi-distributed hydrological model. This revealed that in the glaciated, drift covered terrain of the Scottish highlands, extensive valley bottom aquifers effec- tively de-couple hillslope waters from the river channel. Thus, riparian groundwater appears to significantly

A mathematical model for the transfer of soil solutes to runoff under water scouring.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Ting; Wang, Quanjiu; Wu, Laosheng; Zhang, Pengyu; Zhao, Guangxu; Liu, Yanli

2016-11-01

The transfer of nutrients from soil to runoff often causes unexpected pollution in water bodies. In this study, a mathematical model that relates to the detachment of soil particles by water flow and the degree of mixing between overland flow and soil nutrients was proposed. The model assumes that the mixing depth is an integral of average water flow depth, and it was evaluated by experiments with three water inflow rates to bare soil surfaces and to surfaces with eight treatments of different stone coverages. The model predicted outflow rates were compared with the experimentally observed data to test the accuracy of the infiltration parameters obtained by curve fitting the models to the data. Further analysis showed that the comprehensive mixing coefficient (ke) was linearly correlated with Reynolds' number Re (R(2)>0.9), and this relationship was verified by comparing the simulated potassium concentration and cumulative mass with observed data, respectively. The best performance with the bias error analysis (Nash Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NS), relative error (RE) and the coefficient of determination (R(2))) showed that the predicted data by the proposed model was in good agreement with the measured data. Thus the model can be used to guide soil-water and fertilization management to minimize nutrient runoff from cropland. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Runoff Calculation by Neural Networks Using Radar Rainfall Data

OpenAIRE

岡田, 晋作; 四俵, 正俊

1997-01-01

Neural networks, are used to calculate runoff from weather radar data and ground rain gauge data. Compared to usual runoff models, it is easier to use radar data in neural network runoff calculation. Basically you can use the radar data directly, or without transforming them into rainfall, as the input of the neural network. A situation with the difficulty of ground measurement is supposed. To cover the area lacking ground rain gauge, radar data are used. In case that the distribution of grou...

Simulating the effects of ground-water withdrawals on streamflow in a precipitation-runoff model

Science.gov (United States)

Zarriello, Philip J.; Barlow, P.M.; Duda, P.B.

2004-01-01

Precipitation-runoff models are used to assess the effects of water use and management alternatives on streamflow. Often, ground-water withdrawals are a major water-use component that affect streamflow, but the ability of surface-water models to simulate ground-water withdrawals is limited. As part of a Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) precipitation-runoff model developed to analyze the effect of ground-water and surface-water withdrawals on streamflow in the Ipswich River in northeastern Massachusetts, an analytical technique (STRMDEPL) was developed for calculating the effects of pumped wells on streamflow. STRMDEPL is a FORTRAN program based on two analytical solutions that solve equations for ground-water flow to a well completed in a semi-infinite, homogeneous, and isotropic aquifer in direct hydraulic connection to a fully penetrating stream. One analytical method calculates unimpeded flow at the stream-aquifer boundary and the other method calculates the resistance to flow caused by semipervious streambed and streambank material. The principle of superposition is used with these analytical equations to calculate time-varying streamflow depletions due to daily pumping. The HSPF model can readily incorporate streamflow depletions caused by a well or surface-water withdrawal, or by multiple wells or surface-water withdrawals, or both, as a combined time-varying outflow demand from affected channel reaches. These demands are stored as a time series in the Watershed Data Management (WDM) file. This time-series data is read into the model as an external source used to specify flow from the first outflow gate in the reach where these withdrawals are located. Although the STRMDEPL program can be run independently of the HSPF model, an extension was developed to run this program within GenScn, a scenario generator and graphical user interface developed for use with the HSPF model. This extension requires that actual pumping rates for each well be stored

Characterizations of the first flush in storm water runoff from an urban roadway.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, B C; Matsui, S; Shimizu, Y; Matsuda, T

2005-07-01

Storm water runoff from urban roadways contains anthropogenic pollutants, which are mainly generated from traffic-related activities. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the characteristics of pollutants from the roadway runoff as well as first flush effects. Storm water runoff was sampled during five storm events from the experimental site in Otsu, Shiga, Japan. From the hydrographs and pollutographs for the roadway runoff, the concentration of pollutants increased with increasing runoff flow in the low flow rate event, but did not significantly increase in the high flow rate event. Moreover, according to the analysis of cumulative pollutant mass versus runoff volume curves from five storm events, the first 50% of the runoff volume transported 62% of TOC and Mo, 60% of SS, 59% of Fe, Mn and Cu, 58% of Ni, 57% of Cd and Pb, 56% of Al, 55% of Zn, and 54% of Cr, as the mean values. The first 30% and 80% of the runoff volume also transported 34-43% mass of the pollutants and 82-88% mass of the pollutants, respectively. This study for storm water runoff may also provide useful information to correctly design treatment facilities, such as detention tanks and ponds, filtration and adsorption systems.

Integration of field data into operational snowmelt-runoff models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brandt, M.; Bergström, S.

1994-01-01

Conceptual runoff models have become standard tools for operational hydrological forecasting in Scandinavia. These models are normally based on observations from the national climatological networks, but in mountainous areas the stations are few and sometimes not representative. Due to the great economic importance of good hydrological forecasts for the hydro-power industry attempts have been made to improve the model simulations by support from field observations of the snowpack. The snowpack has been mapped by several methods; airborne gamma-spectrometry, airborne georadars, satellites and by conventional snow courses. The studies cover more than ten years of work in Sweden. The conclusion is that field observations of the snow cover have a potential for improvement of the forecasts of inflow to the reservoirs in the mountainous part of the country, where the climatological data coverages is poor. This is pronounced during years with unusual snow distribution. The potential for model improvement is smaller in the climatologically more homogeneous forested lowlands, where the climatological network is denser. The costs of introduction of airborne observations into the modelling procedure are high and can only be justified in areas of great hydropower potential. (author)

Non-linear, connectivity and threshold-dominated runoff-generation controls DOC and heavy metal export in a small peat catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Birkel, Christian; Broder, Tanja; Biester, Harald

2017-04-01

Peat soils act as important carbon sinks, but they also release large amounts of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to the aquatic system. The DOC export is strongly tied to the export of soluble heavy metals. The accumulation of potentially toxic substances due to anthropogenic activities, and their natural export from peat soils to the aquatic system is an important health and environmental issue. However, limited knowledge exists as to how much of these substances are mobilized, how they are mobilized in terms of flow pathways and under which hydrometeorological conditions. In this study, we report from a combined experimental and modelling effort to provide greater process understanding from a small, lead (Pb) and arsenic (As) contaminated upland peat catchment in northwestern Germany. We developed a minimally parameterized, but process-based, coupled hydrology-biogeochemistry model applied to simulate detailed hydrometric and biogeochemical data. The model was based on an initial data mining analysis, in combination with regression relationships of discharge, DOC and element export. We assessed the internal model DOC-processing based on stream-DOC hysteresis patterns and 3-hourly time step groundwater level and soil DOC data (not used for calibration as an independent model test) for two consecutive summer periods in 2013 and 2014. We found that Pb and As mobilization can be efficiently predicted from DOC transport alone, but Pb showed a significant non-linear relationship with DOC, while As was linearly related to DOC. The relatively parsimonious model (nine calibrated parameters in total) showed the importance of non-linear and rapid near-surface runoff-generation mechanisms that caused around 60% of simulated DOC load. The total load was high even though these pathways were only activated during storm events on average 30% of the monitoring time - as also shown by the experimental data. Overall, the drier period 2013 resulted in increased nonlinearity, but

Hydrological scenarios of future seasonal runoff distribution in Central Slovakia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hlavcova, K; Szolgay, J; Kohnova, S; Balint, G

2008-01-01

The hydrological scenarios of future seasonal distributions of runoff in the upper Hron River basin, which was chosen as a representative mountainous region in Central Slovakia, were evaluated. Changes in the future climate were expressed by three different climate change scenarios developed within the framework of the Central and Eastern Europe Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment Project (CECILIA). The climate change scenarios were constructed using the pattern scaling method from the outputs of transient simulations made by 3 GCMs - ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM2 and NCAR DOE-PCM. A conceptual hydrological balance model calibrated with data from the period 1971-2000 was used for modelling changes in runoff with monthly time steps. The runoff change scenarios for the selected basin in the future time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2100 show changes in the seasonal runoff distribution.

Detecting surface runoff location in a small catchment using distributed and simple observation method

Science.gov (United States)

Dehotin, Judicaël; Breil, Pascal; Braud, Isabelle; de Lavenne, Alban; Lagouy, Mickaël; Sarrazin, Benoît

2015-06-01

Surface runoff is one of the hydrological processes involved in floods, pollution transfer, soil erosion and mudslide. Many models allow the simulation and the mapping of surface runoff and erosion hazards. Field observations of this hydrological process are not common although they are crucial to evaluate surface runoff models and to investigate or assess different kinds of hazards linked to this process. In this study, a simple field monitoring network is implemented to assess the relevance of a surface runoff susceptibility mapping method. The network is based on spatially distributed observations (nine different locations in the catchment) of soil water content and rainfall events. These data are analyzed to determine if surface runoff occurs. Two surface runoff mechanisms are considered: surface runoff by saturation of the soil surface horizon and surface runoff by infiltration excess (also called hortonian runoff). The monitoring strategy includes continuous records of soil surface water content and rainfall with a 5 min time step. Soil infiltration capacity time series are calculated using field soil water content and in situ measurements of soil hydraulic conductivity. Comparison of soil infiltration capacity and rainfall intensity time series allows detecting the occurrence of surface runoff by infiltration-excess. Comparison of surface soil water content with saturated water content values allows detecting the occurrence of surface runoff by saturation of the soil surface horizon. Automatic records were complemented with direct field observations of surface runoff in the experimental catchment after each significant rainfall event. The presented observation method allows the identification of fast and short-lived surface runoff processes at a small spatial and temporal resolution in natural conditions. The results also highlight the relationship between surface runoff and factors usually integrated in surface runoff mapping such as topography, rainfall

Application of the Snowmelt Runoff model in the Kuban river basin using MODIS satellite images

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Georgievsky, M V

2009-01-01

This paper analyses an opportunity to integrate remote sensing data in a forecasting scheme of river inflow to the Krasnodar reservoir. MODIS MOD10A2 eight-day composite snow cover data was selected as the basic remote sensing information. Based on these data, a database which consists of maximal snow extent maps covering the Kuban river basin over the period from March 2000 to the present, along with the technique of operative monitoring of the maximal snow covered area for the main basins of the rivers flowing into the Krasnodar reservoir were developed. It was revealed that the snow cover distribution data could be useful in the prediction of flooding in the basin. In addition, the Snowmelt Runoff model, application of which is based on snow cover remote sensing data as the input information, was tested as a short-term forecasting model. The obtained results enable us to conclude that the model can be used for short-term runoff forecasts in the mountain and foothill areas of the Krasnodar reservoir basin.

Application of the Snowmelt Runoff model in the Kuban river basin using MODIS satellite images

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Georgievsky, M V, E-mail: mgeorgievsky@hotmail.co [State Hydrological Institute, St Petersburg (Russian Federation)

2009-10-15

This paper analyses an opportunity to integrate remote sensing data in a forecasting scheme of river inflow to the Krasnodar reservoir. MODIS MOD10A2 eight-day composite snow cover data was selected as the basic remote sensing information. Based on these data, a database which consists of maximal snow extent maps covering the Kuban river basin over the period from March 2000 to the present, along with the technique of operative monitoring of the maximal snow covered area for the main basins of the rivers flowing into the Krasnodar reservoir were developed. It was revealed that the snow cover distribution data could be useful in the prediction of flooding in the basin. In addition, the Snowmelt Runoff model, application of which is based on snow cover remote sensing data as the input information, was tested as a short-term forecasting model. The obtained results enable us to conclude that the model can be used for short-term runoff forecasts in the mountain and foothill areas of the Krasnodar reservoir basin.

Effects of IPCC SRES* emissions scenarios on river runoff: a global perspective

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N. W. Arnell

2003-01-01

Full Text Available This paper describes an assessment of the implications of future climate change for river runoff across the entire world, using six climate models which have been driven by the SRES emissions scenarios. Streamflow is simulated at a spatial resolution of 0.5°x0.5° using a macro-scale hydrological model, and summed to produce total runoff for almost 1200 catchments. The effects of climate change have been compared with the effects of natural multi-decadal climatic variability, as determined from a long unforced climate simulation using HadCM3. By the 2020s, change in runoff due to climate change in approximately a third of the catchments is less than that due to natural variability but, by the 2080s, this falls to between 10 and 30%. The climate models produce broadly similar changes in runoff, with increases in high latitudes, east Africa and south and east Asia, and decreases in southern and eastern Europe, western Russia, north Africa and the Middle East, central and southern Africa, much of North America, most of South America, and south and east Asia. The pattern of change in runoff is largely determined by simulated change in precipitation, offset by a general increase in evaporation. There is little difference in the pattern of change between different emissions scenarios (for a given model, and only by the 2080s is there evidence that the magnitudes of change in runoff vary, with emissions scenario A1FI producing the greatest change and B1 the smallest. The inter-annual variability in runoff increases in most catchments due to climate change — even though the inter-annual variability in precipitation is not changed — and the frequency of flow below the current 10-year return period minimum annual runoff increases by a factor of three in Europe and southern Africa and of two across North America. Across most of the world climate change does not alter the timing of flows through the year but, in the marginal zone between cool and

Runoff and sediment transport in the arid regions of Argentina and India - a case study in comparative hydrology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sharma, K.D.; Menenti, M.; Huygen, J.; Fernandez, P.C.; Vich, A.

1996-01-01

The arid zones of Argentina and India have been compared. In both regions run-off is often generated by the Hortonian infiltration surplus overland flow, and run-off response to precipitation input tends to be rapid. The sediment transport is governedby the transport capacity of run-off rather than

A Precipitation-Runoff Model for the Blackstone River Basin, Massachusetts and Rhode Island

Science.gov (United States)

Barbaro, Jeffrey R.; Zarriello, Phillip J.

2007-01-01

A Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) precipitation-runoff model of the Blackstone River Basin was developed and calibrated to study the effects of changing land- and water-use patterns on water resources. The 474.5 mi2 Blackstone River Basin in southeastern Massachusetts and northern Rhode Island is experiencing rapid population and commercial growth throughout much of its area. This growth and the corresponding changes in land-use patterns are increasing stress on water resources and raising concerns about the future availability of water to meet residential and commercial needs. Increased withdrawals and wastewater-return flows also could adversely affect aquatic habitat, water quality, and the recreational value of the streams in the basin. The Blackstone River Basin was represented by 19 hydrologic response units (HRUs): 17 types of pervious areas (PERLNDs) established from combinations of surficial geology, land-use categories, and the distribution of public water and public sewer systems, and two types of impervious areas (IMPLNDs). Wetlands were combined with open water and simulated as stream reaches that receive runoff from surrounding pervious and impervious areas. This approach was taken to achieve greater flexibility in calibrating evapotranspiration losses from wetlands during the growing season. The basin was segmented into 50 reaches (RCHRES) to represent junctions at tributaries, major lakes and reservoirs, and drainage areas to streamflow-gaging stations. Climatological, streamflow, water-withdrawal, and wastewater-return data were collected during the study to develop the HSPF model. Climatological data collected at Worcester Regional Airport in Worcester, Massachusetts and T.F. Green Airport in Warwick, Rhode Island, were used for model calibration. A total of 15 streamflow-gaging stations were used in the calibration. Streamflow was measured at eight continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations that are part of the U.S. Geological

Surface runoff scale effects in West African watersheds: Modeling and management options

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Giesen, van de N.C.; Stomph, T.J.; Ridder, de N.

2005-01-01

Measurements of surface runoff from uniform slopes of different lengths in West Africa have shown that longer slopes tend to have less runoff per unit of length than short slopes. The main reason for this scale effect is that once the rain stops, water on long slopes has more opportunity time to

Aspects of Hydrological Modelling In The Punjab Himalayan and Karakoram Ranges, Pakistan

Science.gov (United States)

Loukas, A.; Khan, M. I.; Quick, M. C.

Various aspects of hydrologic modelling of high mountainous basins in the Punjab Hi- malayan and Karakoram ranges of Northern Pakistan were studied. The runoff from three basins in this region was simulated using the U.B.C. watershed model, which re- quires limited meteorological data of minimum and maximum daily temperature and precipitation. The structure of the model is based on the concept that the hydrolog- ical behavior is a function of elevation and thus, a watershed is conceptualized as a number of elevational zones. A simplified energy budget approach, which is based on daily maximum and minimum temperature and can account for forested and open areas, and aspect and latitude, is used in the U.B.C. model for the estimation of the snowmelt and glacier melt. The studied basins have different hydrological responses and limited data. The runoff from the first basin, the Astore basin, is mainly gener- ated by snowmelt. In the second basin, the Kunhar basin, the runoff is generated by snowmelt but significant redistribution of snow, caused by snow avalanches, affect the runoff generation. The third basin, the Hunza basin, is a highly glacierized basin and its runoff is mainly generated by glacier melt. The application of the U.B.C. watershed model to these three basins showed that the model could estimate reasonably well the runoff generated by the different components.

Modelling Snowmelt Runoff under Climate Change Scenarios in an Ungauged Mountainous Watershed, Northwest China

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Yonggang Ma

2013-01-01

Full Text Available An integrated modeling system has been developed for analyzing the impact of climate change on snowmelt runoff in Kaidu Watershed, Northwest China. The system couples Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3 outputs with Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM. The SRM was verified against observed discharge for outlet hydrological station of the watershed during the period from April to September in 2001 and generally performed well for Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (EF and water balance coefficient (RE. The EF is approximately over 0.8, and the water balance error is lower than ± 10%, indicating reasonable prediction accuracy. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM was used to downscale coarse outputs of HadCM3, and then the downscaled future climate data were used as inputs of the SRM. Four scenarios were considered for analyzing the climate change impact on snowmelt flow in the Kaidu Watershed. And the results indicated that watershed hydrology would alter under different climate change scenarios. The stream flow in spring is likely to increase with the increased mean temperature; the discharge and peck flow in summer decrease with the decreased precipitation under Scenarios 1 and 2. Moreover, the consideration of the change in cryosphere area would intensify the variability of stream flow under Scenarios 3 and 4. The modeling results provide useful decision support for water resources management.

Comparative assessment of predictions in ungauged basins – Part 3: Runoff signatures in Austria

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A. Viglione

2013-06-01

Full Text Available This is the third of a three-part paper series through which we assess the performance of runoff predictions in ungauged basins in a comparative way. Whereas the two previous papers by Parajka et al. (2013 and Salinas et al. (2013 assess the regionalisation performance of hydrographs and hydrological extremes on the basis of a comprehensive literature review of thousands of case studies around the world, in this paper we jointly assess prediction performance of a range of runoff signatures for a consistent and rich dataset. Daily runoff time series are predicted for 213 catchments in Austria by a regionalised rainfall–runoff model and by Top-kriging, a geostatistical estimation method that accounts for the river network hierarchy. From the runoff time-series, six runoff signatures are extracted: annual runoff, seasonal runoff, flow duration curves, low flows, high flows and runoff hydrographs. The predictive performance is assessed in terms of the bias, error spread and proportion of unexplained spatial variance of statistical measures of these signatures in cross-validation (blind testing mode. Results of the comparative assessment show that, in Austria, the predictive performance increases with catchment area for both methods and for most signatures, it tends to increase with elevation for the regionalised rainfall–runoff model, while the dependence on climate characteristics is weaker. Annual and seasonal runoff can be predicted more accurately than all other signatures. The spatial variability of high flows in ungauged basins is the most difficult to estimate followed by the low flows. It also turns out that in this data-rich study in Austria, the geostatistical approach (Top-kriging generally outperforms the regionalised rainfall–runoff model.

Runoff projection under climate change over Yarlung Zangbo River, Southwest China

Science.gov (United States)

Xuan, Weidong; Xu, Yue-Ping

2017-04-01

The Yarlung Zangbo River is located in southwest of China, one of the major source of "Asian water tower". The river has great hydropower potential and provides vital water resource for local and downstream agricultural production and livestock husbandry. Compared to its drainage area, gauge observation is sometimes not enough for good hydrological modeling in order to project future runoff. In this study, we employ a semi-distributed hydrologic model SWAT to simulate hydrological process of the river with rainfall observation and TRMM 3B4V7 respectively and the hydrological model performance is evaluated based on not only total runoff but snowmelt, precipitation and groundwater components. Firstly, calibration and validation of the hydrological model are executed to find behavioral parameter sets for both gauge observation and TRMM data respectively. Then, behavioral parameter sets with diverse efficiency coefficient (NS) values are selected and corresponding runoff components are analyzed. Robust parameter sets are further employed in SWAT coupled with CMIP5 GCMs to project future runoff. The final results show that precipitation is the dominating contributor nearly all year around, while snowmelt and groundwater are important in the summer and winter alternatively. Also sufficient robust parameter sets help reduce uncertainty in hydrological modeling. Finally, future possible runoff changes will have major consequences for water and flood security.

Water quality of storm runoff and comparison of procedures for estimating storm-runoff loads, volume, event-mean concentrations, and the mean load for a storm for selected properties and constituents for Colorado Springs, southeastern Colorado, 1992

Science.gov (United States)

Von Guerard, Paul; Weiss, W.B.

1995-01-01

to 1,400 micrograms per liter. The data for 30 storms representing rainfall runoff from 5 drainage basins were used to develop single-storm local-regression models. The response variables, storm-runoff loads, volume, and event-mean concentrations were modeled using explanatory variables for climatic, physical, and land-use characteristics. The r2 for models that use ordinary least-squares regression ranged from 0.57 to 0.86 for storm-runoff loads and volume and from 0.25 to 0.63 for storm-runoff event-mean concentrations. Except for cadmium, standard errors of estimate ranged from 43 to 115 percent for storm- runoff loads and volume and from 35 to 66 percent for storm-runoff event-mean concentrations. Eleven of the 30 concentrations collected during rainfall runoff for total-recoverable cadmium were censored (less than) concentrations. Ordinary least-squares regression should not be used with censored data; however, censored data can be included with uncensored data using tobit regression. Standard errors of estimate for storm-runoff load and event-mean concentration for total-recoverable cadmium, computed using tobit regression, are 247 and 171 percent. Estimates from single-storm regional-regression models, developed from the Nationwide Urban Runoff Program data base, were compared with observed storm-runoff loads, volume, and event-mean concentrations determined from samples collected in the study area. Single-storm regional-regression models tended to overestimate storm-runoff loads, volume, and event-mean con-centrations. Therefore, single-storm local- and regional-regression models were combined using model-adjustment procedures to take advantage of the strengths of both models while minimizing the deficiencies of each model. Procedures were used to develop single-stormregression equations that were adjusted using local data and estimates from single-storm regional-regression equations. Single-storm regression models developed using model- adjustment proce

Physicochemical conditions and properties of particles in urban runoff and rivers: Implications for runoff pollution.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Qian; Zhang, Qionghua; Wu, Yaketon; Wang, Xiaochang C

2017-04-01

In this study, to gain an improved understanding of the fate and fractionation of particle-bound pollutants, we evaluated the physicochemical conditions and the properties of particles in rainwater, urban runoff, and rivers of Yixing, a city with a large drainage density in the Taihu Lake Basin, China. Road runoff and river samples were collected during the wet and dry seasons in 2015 and 2016. There were significant differences between the physicochemical conditions (pH, oxidation-reduction potential (ORP), and electroconductivity (EC)) of rainwater, runoff, and rivers. The lowest pH and highest ORP values of rainwater provide the optimal conditions for leaching of particle-bound pollutants such as heavy metals. The differences in the physicochemical conditions of the runoff and rivers may contribute to the redistribution of pollutants between particulate and dissolved phases after runoff is discharged into waterways. Runoff and river particles were mainly composed of silt and clay (runoff particles contained a higher proportion of nano-scale particles (runoff pollution. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How would peak rainfall intensity affect runoff predictions using conceptual water balance models?

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B. Yu

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Most hydrological models use continuous daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration for streamflow estimation. With the projected increase in mean surface temperature, hydrological processes are set to intensify irrespective of the underlying changes to the mean precipitation. The effect of an increase in rainfall intensity on the long-term water balance is, however, not adequately accounted for in the commonly used hydrological models. This study follows from a previous comparative analysis of a non-stationary daily series of stream flow of a forested watershed (River Rimbaud in the French Alps (area = 1.478 km2 (1966–2006. Non-stationarity in the recorded stream flow occurred as a result of a severe wild fire in 1990. Two daily models (AWBM and SimHyd were initially calibrated for each of three distinct phases in relation to the well documented land disturbance. At the daily and monthly time scales, both models performed satisfactorily with the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE varying from 0.77 to 0.92. When aggregated to the annual time scale, both models underestimated the flow by about 22% with a reduced NSE at about 0.71. Exploratory data analysis was undertaken to relate daily peak hourly rainfall intensity to the discrepancy between the observed and modelled daily runoff amount. Preliminary results show that the effect of peak hourly rainfall intensity on runoff prediction is insignificant, and model performance is unlikely to improve when peak daily precipitation is included. Trend analysis indicated that the large decrease of precipitation when daily precipitation amount exceeded 10–20 mm may have contributed greatly to the decrease in stream flow of this forested watershed.

Rainfall-induced runoff from exposed streambed sediments: an important source of water pollution.

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Frey, S K; Gottschall, N; Wilkes, G; Grégoire, D S; Topp, E; Pintar, K D M; Sunohara, M; Marti, R; Lapen, D R

2015-01-01

When surface water levels decline, exposed streambed sediments can be mobilized and washed into the water course when subjected to erosive rainfall. In this study, rainfall simulations were conducted over exposed sediments along stream banks at four distinct locations in an agriculturally dominated river basin with the objective of quantifying the potential for contaminant loading from these often overlooked runoff source areas. At each location, simulations were performed at three different sites. Nitrogen, phosphorus, sediment, fecal indicator bacteria, pathogenic bacteria, and microbial source tracking (MST) markers were examined in both prerainfall sediments and rainfall-induced runoff water. Runoff generation and sediment mobilization occurred quickly (10-150 s) after rainfall initiation. Temporal trends in runoff concentrations were highly variable within and between locations. Total runoff event loads were considered large for many pollutants considered. For instance, the maximum observed total phosphorus runoff load was on the order of 1.5 kg ha. Results also demonstrate that runoff from exposed sediments can be a source of pathogenic bacteria. spp. and spp. were present in runoff from one and three locations, respectively. Ruminant MST markers were also present in runoff from two locations, one of which hosted pasturing cattle with stream access. Overall, this study demonstrated that rainfall-induced runoff from exposed streambed sediments can be an important source of surface water pollution. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Sediment transport by runoff on debris-mantled dryland hillslopes

Science.gov (United States)

Michaelides, Katerina; Martin, Gareth J.

2012-09-01

Hillslopes supply sediment to river channels, and therefore impact drainage basin functioning and evolution. The relationship between hillslope attributes and sediment flux forms the basis of geomorphic transport laws used to model the long-term topographic evolution of drainage basins, but their specific interactions during individual storm events are not well understood. Runoff-driven erosion of coarse particles, prevalent in dryland environments, presents a particular set of conditions for sediment transport that is poorly resolved in current models. In order to address this gap, we developed a particle-based, force-balance model for sheetwash sediment transport on coarse, debris-mantled hillslopes within a rainfall-runoff model. We use the model to examine how the interplay between hillslope attributes (gradient, length and grain size distribution) and runoff characteristics affects sediment transport, grain-size changes on the hillslope, and sediment supply to the slope base. The relationship between sediment flux and hillslope gradient was found to transition from linear above a threshold to sigmoidal depending on hillslope length, initial grain sizes, and runoff characteristics. Grain sizes supplied to the slope base vary in a complex manner with hillslope attributes but an overall coarsening of the hillslopes is found to occur with increasing gradient, corroborating previous findings from field measurements. Intense, short duration storms result in within-hillslope sediment redistribution and equifinality in sediment supply for different hillslope characteristics, which explain the lack of field evidence for any systematic relationships. Our model findings provide insights into hillslope responses to climatic forcing and have theoretical implications for modeling hillslope evolution in dry lands.

Applying Multimodel Ensemble from Regional Climate Models for Improving Runoff Projections on Semiarid Regions of Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia Galiano, S. G.; Olmos, P.; Giraldo Osorio, J. D.

2015-12-01

In the Mediterranean area, significant changes on temperature and precipitation are expected throughout the century. These trends could exacerbate the existing conditions in regions already vulnerable to climatic variability, reducing the water availability. Improving knowledge about plausible impacts of climate change on water cycle processes at basin scale, is an important step for building adaptive capacity to the impacts in this region, where severe water shortages are expected for the next decades. RCMs ensemble in combination with distributed hydrological models with few parameters, constitutes a valid and robust methodology to increase the reliability of climate and hydrological projections. For reaching this objective, a novel methodology for building Regional Climate Models (RCMs) ensembles of meteorological variables (rainfall an temperatures), was applied. RCMs ensembles are justified for increasing the reliability of climate and hydrological projections. The evaluation of RCMs goodness-of-fit to build the ensemble is based on empirical probability density functions (PDF) extracted from both RCMs dataset and a highly resolution gridded observational dataset, for the time period 1961-1990. The applied method is considering the seasonal and annual variability of the rainfall and temperatures. The RCMs ensembles constitute the input to a distributed hydrological model at basin scale, for assessing the runoff projections. The selected hydrological model is presenting few parameters in order to reduce the uncertainties involved. The study basin corresponds to a head basin of Segura River Basin, located in the South East of Spain. The impacts on runoff and its trend from observational dataset and climate projections, were assessed. Considering the control period 1961-1990, plausible significant decreases in runoff for the time period 2021-2050, were identified.

Modelling Climate change influence on runoff and soil losses in a rainfed catchment with Mediterranean climate

Science.gov (United States)

Concepción Ramos, Maria; Martínez-Casasnovas, José A.

2015-04-01

The magnitude of erosion processes, widespread throughout the Mediterranean areas, may be enhanced due to changes in seasonal precipitation regimes and an increase of extreme events. The present research shows the results of possible effects of climate change on runoff and soil loss in a rainfed catchment located in the Barcelona province (NE Spain).In the study area, vines are the main land use, cultivated under the Penedès designation of origin. The present research shows the results of runoff and soil loss simulated using SWAT for a small basin with vines as main land use. Input data included detailed soil and land use maps, and daily climate data of the period 1998-2012. The analysis compared simulated results for years with different climatic conditions during that period and the average with predictions for the scenario 2020, 2050 and 2080 based on the HadCM3 GCM under A2 scenario and the trends observed in the area related to maximum rainfall intensity. The model was calibrated and validated using data recorded at different subbasins, using soil water and runoff samples. Taking into account the predicted changes in temperature and precipitation, the model simulated a decrease in soil loss associated with a decrease in runoff, mainly driven by an increase in evapotranspiration. However, the trend in soil losses varied when the changes in precipitation could balance the increase of evapotranspiration and also due to the increase of rainfall intensity. An increase in maximum rainfall intensity in spring and autumn (main rainy seasons) produced significant increases in soil loss: by up to 12% for the 2020 scenario and up to 57% for the 2050 scenario, although high differences may exists depending on rainfall characteristics. The research confirmed the difficulty of predicting future soil loss in this region, which has a very high climate inter-annual variability.

Effects of rainstorms and runoff on consequences of nuclear reactor accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)