Interpreting Results from the Multinomial Logit Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wulff, Jesper

2015-01-01

This article provides guidelines and illustrates practical steps necessary for an analysis of results from the multinomial logit model (MLM). The MLM is a popular model in the strategy literature because it allows researchers to examine strategic choices with multiple outcomes. However, there see...... suitable for both interpretation and communication of results. The pratical steps are illustrated through an application of the MLM to the choice of foreign market entry mode.......This article provides guidelines and illustrates practical steps necessary for an analysis of results from the multinomial logit model (MLM). The MLM is a popular model in the strategy literature because it allows researchers to examine strategic choices with multiple outcomes. However, there seem...... to be systematic issues with regard to how researchers interpret their results when using the MLM. In this study, I present a set of guidelines critical to analyzing and interpreting results from the MLM. The procedure involves intuitive graphical representations of predicted probabilities and marginal effects...

Epistemology and Rosen's Modeling Relation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dress, W.B.

1999-01-01

Rosen's modeling relation is embedded in Popper's three worlds to provide an heuristic tool for model building and a guide for thinking about complex systems. The utility of this construct is demonstrated by suggesting a solution to the problem of pseudo science and a resolution of the famous Bohr-Einstein debates. A theory of bizarre systems is presented by an analogy with entangled particles of quantum mechanics. This theory underscores the poverty of present-day computational systems (e.g., computers) for creating complex and bizarre entities by distinguishing between mechanism and organism

A physiological production model for cacao : results of model simulations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zuidema, P.A.; Leffelaar, P.A.

2002-01-01

CASE2 is a physiological model for cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) growth and yield. This report introduces the CAcao Simulation Engine for water-limited production in a non-technical way and presents simulation results obtained with the model.

Generalised Chou-Yang model and recent results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fazal-e-Aleem; Rashid, H.

1996-01-01

It is shown that most recent results of E710 and UA4/2 collaboration for the total cross section and ρ together with earlier measurements give good agreement with measurements for the differential cross section at 546 and 1800 GeV within the framework of Generalised Chou-Yang model. These results are also compared with the predictions of other models. (author)

Results of steel containment vessel model test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luk, V.K.; Ludwigsen, J.S.; Hessheimer, M.F.; Komine, Kuniaki; Matsumoto, Tomoyuki; Costello, J.F.

1998-05-01

A series of static overpressurization tests of scale models of nuclear containment structures is being conducted by Sandia National Laboratories for the Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation of Japan and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Two tests are being conducted: (1) a test of a model of a steel containment vessel (SCV) and (2) a test of a model of a prestressed concrete containment vessel (PCCV). This paper summarizes the conduct of the high pressure pneumatic test of the SCV model and the results of that test. Results of this test are summarized and are compared with pretest predictions performed by the sponsoring organizations and others who participated in a blind pretest prediction effort. Questions raised by this comparison are identified and plans for posttest analysis are discussed

Generalised Chou-Yang model and recent results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fazal-e-Aleem; Rashid, H.

1995-09-01

It is shown that most recent results of E710 and UA4/2 collaboration for the total cross section and ρ together with earlier measurements give good agreement with measurements for the differential cross section at 546 and 1800 GeV the framework of Generalised Chou-Yang model. These results are also compared with the predictions of other models. (author). 16 refs, 2 figs

Generalised Chou-Yang model and recent results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fazal-e-Aleem [International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy); Rashid, H. [Punjab Univ., Lahore (Pakistan). Centre for High Energy Physics

1996-12-31

It is shown that most recent results of E710 and UA4/2 collaboration for the total cross section and {rho} together with earlier measurements give good agreement with measurements for the differential cross section at 546 and 1800 GeV within the framework of Generalised Chou-Yang model. These results are also compared with the predictions of other models. (author) 16 refs.

A New Paradigm for Diagnosing Contributions to Model Aerosol Forcing Error

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, A. L.; Feldman, D. R.; Freidenreich, S.; Paynter, D.; Ramaswamy, V.; Collins, W. D.; Pincus, R.

2017-12-01

A new paradigm in benchmark absorption-scattering radiative transfer is presented that enables both the globally averaged and spatially resolved testing of climate model radiation parameterizations in order to uncover persistent sources of biases in the aerosol instantaneous radiative effect (IRE). A proof of concept is demonstrated with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM4 and Community Earth System Model 1.2.2 climate models. Instead of prescribing atmospheric conditions and aerosols, as in prior intercomparisons, native snapshots of the atmospheric state and aerosol optical properties from the participating models are used as inputs to an accurate radiation solver to uncover model-relevant biases. These diagnostic results show that the models' aerosol IRE bias is of the same magnitude as the persistent range cited ( 1 W/m2) and also varies spatially and with intrinsic aerosol optical properties. The findings underscore the significance of native model error analysis and its dispositive ability to diagnose global biases, confirming its fundamental value for the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project.

The Danish national passenger model – Model specification and results

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rich, Jeppe; Hansen, Christian Overgaard

2016-01-01

The paper describes the structure of the new Danish National Passenger model and provides on this basis a general discussion of large-scale model design, cost-damping and model validation. The paper aims at providing three main contributions to the existing literature. Firstly, at the general level......, the paper provides a description of a large-scale forecast model with a discussion of the linkage between population synthesis, demand and assignment. Secondly, the paper gives specific attention to model specification and in particular choice of functional form and cost-damping. Specifically we suggest...... a family of logarithmic spline functions and illustrate how it is applied in the model. Thirdly and finally, we evaluate model sensitivity and performance by evaluating the distance distribution and elasticities. In the paper we present results where the spline-function is compared with more traditional...

Storm-time ring current: model-dependent results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Yu. Ganushkina

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The main point of the paper is to investigate how much the modeled ring current depends on the representations of magnetic and electric fields and boundary conditions used in simulations. Two storm events, one moderate (SymH minimum of −120 nT on 6–7 November 1997 and one intense (SymH minimum of −230 nT on 21–22 October 1999, are modeled. A rather simple ring current model is employed, namely, the Inner Magnetosphere Particle Transport and Acceleration model (IMPTAM, in order to make the results most evident. Four different magnetic field and two electric field representations and four boundary conditions are used. We find that different combinations of the magnetic and electric field configurations and boundary conditions result in very different modeled ring current, and, therefore, the physical conclusions based on simulation results can differ significantly. A time-dependent boundary outside of 6.6 RE gives a possibility to take into account the particles in the transition region (between dipole and stretched field lines forming partial ring current and near-Earth tail current in that region. Calculating the model SymH* by Biot-Savart's law instead of the widely used Dessler-Parker-Sckopke (DPS relation gives larger and more realistic values, since the currents are calculated in the regions with nondipolar magnetic field. Therefore, the boundary location and the method of SymH* calculation are of key importance for ring current data-model comparisons to be correctly interpreted.

Hydrogel-based 3D model of patient-derived prostate xenograft tumors suitable for drug screening.

Science.gov (United States)

Fong, Eliza L S; Martinez, Mariane; Yang, Jun; Mikos, Antonios G; Navone, Nora M; Harrington, Daniel A; Farach-Carson, Mary C

2014-07-07

The lack of effective therapies for bone metastatic prostate cancer (PCa) underscores the need for accurate models of the disease to enable the discovery of new therapeutic targets and to test drug sensitivities of individual tumors. To this end, the patient-derived xenograft (PDX) PCa model using immunocompromised mice was established to model the disease with greater fidelity than is possible with currently employed cell lines grown on tissue culture plastic. However, poorly adherent PDX tumor cells exhibit low viability in standard culture, making it difficult to manipulate these cells for subsequent controlled mechanistic studies. To overcome this challenge, we encapsulated PDX tumor cells within a three-dimensional hyaluronan-based hydrogel and demonstrated that the hydrogel maintains PDX cell viability with continued native androgen receptor expression. Furthermore, a differential sensitivity to docetaxel, a chemotherapeutic drug, was observed as compared to a traditional PCa cell line. These findings underscore the potential impact of this novel 3D PDX PCa model as a diagnostic platform for rapid drug evaluation and ultimately push personalized medicine toward clinical reality.

INTRAVAL test case 1b - modelling results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jakob, A.; Hadermann, J.

1991-07-01

This report presents results obtained within Phase I of the INTRAVAL study. Six different models are fitted to the results of four infiltration experiments with 233 U tracer on small samples of crystalline bore cores originating from deep drillings in Northern Switzerland. Four of these are dual porosity media models taking into account advection and dispersion in water conducting zones (either tubelike veins or planar fractures), matrix diffusion out of these into pores of the solid phase, and either non-linear or linear sorption of the tracer onto inner surfaces. The remaining two are equivalent porous media models (excluding matrix diffusion) including either non-linear sorption onto surfaces of a single fissure family or linear sorption onto surfaces of several different fissure families. The fits to the experimental data have been carried out by Marquardt-Levenberg procedure yielding error estimates of the parameters, correlation coefficients and also, as a measure for the goodness of the fits, the minimum values of the χ 2 merit function. The effects of different upstream boundary conditions are demonstrated and the penetration depth for matrix diffusion is discussed briefly for both alternative flow path scenarios. The calculations show that the dual porosity media models are significantly more appropriate to the experimental data than the single porosity media concepts. Moreover, it is matrix diffusion rather than the non-linearity of the sorption isotherm which is responsible for the tailing part of the break-through curves. The extracted parameter values for some models for both the linear and non-linear (Freundlich) sorption isotherms are consistent with the results of independent static batch sorption experiments. From the fits, it is generally not possible to discriminate between the two alternative flow path geometries. On the basis of the modelling results, some proposals for further experiments are presented. (author) 15 refs., 23 figs., 7 tabs

The uncertainty analysis of model results a practical guide

CERN Document Server

Hofer, Eduard

2018-01-01

This book is a practical guide to the uncertainty analysis of computer model applications. Used in many areas, such as engineering, ecology and economics, computer models are subject to various uncertainties at the level of model formulations, parameter values and input data. Naturally, it would be advantageous to know the combined effect of these uncertainties on the model results as well as whether the state of knowledge should be improved in order to reduce the uncertainty of the results most effectively. The book supports decision-makers, model developers and users in their argumentation for an uncertainty analysis and assists them in the interpretation of the analysis results.

Modelling rainfall erosion resulting from climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Kinnell, Peter

2016-04-01

It is well known that soil erosion leads to agricultural productivity decline and contributes to water quality decline. The current widely used models for determining soil erosion for management purposes in agriculture focus on long term (~20 years) average annual soil loss and are not well suited to determining variations that occur over short timespans and as a result of climate change. Soil loss resulting from rainfall erosion is directly dependent on the product of runoff and sediment concentration both of which are likely to be influenced by climate change. This presentation demonstrates the capacity of models like the USLE, USLE-M and WEPP to predict variations in runoff and erosion associated with rainfall events eroding bare fallow plots in the USA with a view to modelling rainfall erosion in areas subject to climate change.

The potential of induced pluripotent stem cells in models of neurological disorders: implications on future therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Crook, Jeremy Micah; Wallace, Gordon; Tomaskovic-Crook, Eva

2015-03-01

There is an urgent need for new and advanced approaches to modeling the pathological mechanisms of complex human neurological disorders. This is underscored by the decline in pharmaceutical research and development efficiency resulting in a relative decrease in new drug launches in the last several decades. Induced pluripotent stem cells represent a new tool to overcome many of the shortcomings of conventional methods, enabling live human neural cell modeling of complex conditions relating to aberrant neurodevelopment, such as schizophrenia, epilepsy and autism as well as age-associated neurodegeneration. This review considers the current status of induced pluripotent stem cell-based modeling of neurological disorders, canvassing proven and putative advantages, current constraints, and future prospects of next-generation culture systems for biomedical research and translation.

A MODEL FOR THE PALM OIL MARKET IN NIGERIA: AN ECONOMETRICS APPROACH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henry Egwuma

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to formulate and estimate a model for the palm oil market in Nigeria with a view to identifying principal factors that shape the Nigerian palm oil industry. Four structural equation models comprising palm oil production, import demand, domestic demand and producer price have been estimated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL cointegration approach over the 1970 to 2011 period. The results reveal that significant factors that influence the Nigerian palm oil industry include the own price, technological improvements, and income level. Government expenditure on agricultural development is also an important determinant, which underscores the need for government support in agriculture. Our model provides a useful framework for analyzing the effects of changes in major exogenous variables such as income or import tariff on the production, demand, and price of palm oil.

A new coal-permeability model: Internal swelling stress and fracture-matrix interaction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, H.H.; Rutqvist, J.

2009-10-01

We have developed a new coal-permeability model for uniaxial strain and constant confining stress conditions. The model is unique in that it explicitly considers fracture-matrix interaction during coal deformation processes and is based on a newly proposed internal-swelling stress concept. This concept is used to account for the impact of matrix swelling (or shrinkage) on fracture-aperture changes resulting from partial separation of matrix blocks by fractures that do not completely cut through the whole matrix. The proposed permeability model is evaluated with data from three Valencia Canyon coalbed wells in the San Juan Basin, where increased permeability has been observed during CH{sub 4} gas production, as well as with published data from laboratory tests. Model results are generally in good agreement with observed permeability changes. The importance of fracture-matrix interaction in determining coal permeability, demonstrated in this work using relatively simple stress conditions, underscores the need for a dual-continuum (fracture and matrix) mechanical approach to rigorously capture coal-deformation processes under complex stress conditions, as well as the coupled flow and transport processes in coal seams.

Epistemology and Rosen's Modeling Relation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dress, W.B.

1999-11-07

Rosen's modeling relation is embedded in Popper's three worlds to provide an heuristic tool for model building and a guide for thinking about complex systems. The utility of this construct is demonstrated by suggesting a solution to the problem of pseudo science and a resolution of the famous Bohr-Einstein debates. A theory of bizarre systems is presented by an analogy with entangled particles of quantum mechanics. This theory underscores the poverty of present-day computational systems (e.g., computers) for creating complex and bizarre entities by distinguishing between mechanism and organism.

Identifiability Results for Several Classes of Linear Compartment Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Meshkat, Nicolette; Sullivant, Seth; Eisenberg, Marisa

2015-08-01

Identifiability concerns finding which unknown parameters of a model can be estimated, uniquely or otherwise, from given input-output data. If some subset of the parameters of a model cannot be determined given input-output data, then we say the model is unidentifiable. In this work, we study linear compartment models, which are a class of biological models commonly used in pharmacokinetics, physiology, and ecology. In past work, we used commutative algebra and graph theory to identify a class of linear compartment models that we call identifiable cycle models, which are unidentifiable but have the simplest possible identifiable functions (so-called monomial cycles). Here we show how to modify identifiable cycle models by adding inputs, adding outputs, or removing leaks, in such a way that we obtain an identifiable model. We also prove a constructive result on how to combine identifiable models, each corresponding to strongly connected graphs, into a larger identifiable model. We apply these theoretical results to several real-world biological models from physiology, cell biology, and ecology.

Photovoltaic Grid-Connected Modeling and Characterization Based on Experimental Results.

Science.gov (United States)

Humada, Ali M; Hojabri, Mojgan; Sulaiman, Mohd Herwan Bin; Hamada, Hussein M; Ahmed, Mushtaq N

2016-01-01

A grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) system operates under fluctuated weather condition has been modeled and characterized based on specific test bed. A mathematical model of a small-scale PV system has been developed mainly for residential usage, and the potential results have been simulated. The proposed PV model based on three PV parameters, which are the photocurrent, IL, the reverse diode saturation current, Io, the ideality factor of diode, n. Accuracy of the proposed model and its parameters evaluated based on different benchmarks. The results showed that the proposed model fitting the experimental results with high accuracy compare to the other models, as well as the I-V characteristic curve. The results of this study can be considered valuable in terms of the installation of a grid-connected PV system in fluctuated climatic conditions.

Expanding the Role of Systems Modeling: Considering Byproduct Generation from Biofuel Production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kurt A. Rosentrater

2006-06-01

Full Text Available The bioethanol industry has been experiencing rapid growth over the past several years, and is expected to continue to increase production for the foreseeable future. A vital component to the success of this industry is the sales and marketing of processing residues, which are primarily sold as dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS. Systems modeling, a technique that has been used to predict future demand for bioethanol, can also be used to determine potential byproduct generation rates. This paper discusses the development of one such model, and presents predicted generation of DDGS as well as carbon dioxide emissions from this industry through 2100. These simulation results underscore the growing need to actively pursue research focused on value-added alternatives for the use of bioethanol byproduct streams.

Optimization and Simulation Modeling of Disaster Relief Supply Chain: A Literature Review

OpenAIRE

Feng, Keli; Bizimana, Emmanuel; Agu, Deedee D.; Issac, Tana T.

2012-01-01

Recent natural and man-made disasters underscore the need of a resilient and agile disaster relief supply chain to mitigate the damages and save people’s lives. Optimization and simulation modeling have become powerful and useful tools to help decision makers tackle problems related to disaster relief supply chain. This paper reviews optimization and simulation models used in the field of disaster relief supply chain. We review the literature of the facility location optimization problems of ...

Photovoltaic Grid-Connected Modeling and Characterization Based on Experimental Results

Science.gov (United States)

Humada, Ali M.; Hojabri, Mojgan; Sulaiman, Mohd Herwan Bin; Hamada, Hussein M.; Ahmed, Mushtaq N.

2016-01-01

A grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) system operates under fluctuated weather condition has been modeled and characterized based on specific test bed. A mathematical model of a small-scale PV system has been developed mainly for residential usage, and the potential results have been simulated. The proposed PV model based on three PV parameters, which are the photocurrent, IL, the reverse diode saturation current, Io, the ideality factor of diode, n. Accuracy of the proposed model and its parameters evaluated based on different benchmarks. The results showed that the proposed model fitting the experimental results with high accuracy compare to the other models, as well as the I-V characteristic curve. The results of this study can be considered valuable in terms of the installation of a grid-connected PV system in fluctuated climatic conditions. PMID:27035575

The EURAD model: Design and first results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-01-01

The contributions are abridged versions of lectures delivered on the occasion of the presentation meeting of the EURAD project on the 20th and 21st of February 1989 in Cologne. EURAD stands for European Acid Deposition Model. The project takes one of the possible and necessary ways to search for scientific answers to the questions which the modifications of the atmosphere caused by anthropogenic influence raise. One of the objectives is to develop a realistic numeric model of long-distance transport of harmful substances in the troposphere over Europe and to use this model for the investigation of pollutant distribution but also for the support of their experimental study. The EURAD Model consists of two parts: a meteorologic mesoscale model and a chemical transport model. In the first part of the presentation, these parts are introduced and questions concerning the implementation of the entire model on the computer system CRAY X-MP/22 discussed. Afterwards it is reported upon the results of the test calculations for the cases 'Chernobyl' and 'Alpex'. Thereafter selected problems concerning the treatments of meteorological and air-chemistry processes as well as the parametrization of subscale processes within the model are discussed. The conclusion is made by two lectures upon emission evaluations and emission scenarios. (orig./KW) [de

Review of Current Standard Model Results in ATLAS

CERN Document Server

Brandt, Gerhard; The ATLAS collaboration

2018-01-01

This talk highlights results selected from the Standard Model research programme of the ATLAS Collaboration at the Large Hadron Collider. Results using data from $p-p$ collisions at $\\sqrt{s}=7,8$~TeV in LHC Run-1 as well as results using data at $\\sqrt{s}=13$~TeV in LHC Run-2 are covered. The status of cross section measurements from soft QCD processes and jet production as well as photon production are presented. The presentation extends to vector boson production with associated jets. Precision measurements of the production of $W$ and $Z$ bosons, including a first measurement of the mass of the $W$ bosons, $m_W$, are discussed. The programme to measure electroweak processes with di-boson and tri-boson final states is outlined. All presented measurements are compatible with Standard Model descriptions and allow to further constrain it. In addition they allow to probe new physics which would manifest through extra gauge couplings, or Standard Model gauge couplings deviating from their predicted value.

Functional results-oriented healthcare leadership: a novel leadership model.

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Touby, Salem Said

2012-03-01

This article modifies the traditional functional leadership model to accommodate contemporary needs in healthcare leadership based on two findings. First, the article argues that it is important that the ideal healthcare leadership emphasizes the outcomes of the patient care more than processes and structures used to deliver such care; and secondly, that the leadership must strive to attain effectiveness of their care provision and not merely targeting the attractive option of efficient operations. Based on these premises, the paper reviews the traditional Functional Leadership Model and the three elements that define the type of leadership an organization has namely, the tasks, the individuals, and the team. The article argues that concentrating on any one of these elements is not ideal and proposes adding a new element to the model to construct a novel Functional Result-Oriented healthcare leadership model. The recommended Functional-Results Oriented leadership model embosses the results element on top of the other three elements so that every effort on healthcare leadership is directed towards attaining excellent patient outcomes.

Value of the distant future: Model-independent results

Science.gov (United States)

Katz, Yuri A.

2017-01-01

This paper shows that the model-independent account of correlations in an interest rate process or a log-consumption growth process leads to declining long-term tails of discount curves. Under the assumption of an exponentially decaying memory in fluctuations of risk-free real interest rates, I derive the analytical expression for an apt value of the long run discount factor and provide a detailed comparison of the obtained result with the outcome of the benchmark risk-free interest rate models. Utilizing the standard consumption-based model with an isoelastic power utility of the representative economic agent, I derive the non-Markovian generalization of the Ramsey discounting formula. Obtained analytical results allowing simple calibration, may augment the rigorous cost-benefit and regulatory impact analysis of long-term environmental and infrastructure projects.

Results from the IAEA benchmark of spallation models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leray, S.; David, J.C.; Khandaker, M.; Mank, G.; Mengoni, A.; Otsuka, N.; Filges, D.; Gallmeier, F.; Konobeyev, A.; Michel, R.

2011-01-01

Spallation reactions play an important role in a wide domain of applications. In the simulation codes used in this field, the nuclear interaction cross-sections and characteristics are computed by spallation models. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has recently organised a benchmark of the spallation models used or that could be used in the future into high-energy transport codes. The objectives were, first, to assess the prediction capabilities of the different spallation models for the different mass and energy regions and the different exit channels and, second, to understand the reason for the success or deficiency of the models. Results of the benchmark concerning both the analysis of the prediction capabilities of the models and the first conclusions on the physics of spallation models are presented. (authors)

High Decision Latitude at Work Combined with Traumatic Life Events in Private Life is Associated with Reduced Sleep Quality: Results from the GAZEL Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nadya Dich

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Psychosocial stress, both at work and at home, plays a role in sleep disturbances. Theoretical models of stress underscore the cumulative effect of stress from different domains in affecting health and well-being. However, previous research has not considered how work stress and stress in private life might interact to affect sleep. The study investigated potential synergistic effects of work stress and traumatic events in private life on sleep quality. Participants ('N' = 6552, average baseline age = 52 were a subset of the French GAZEL cohort who were working in 1999. Work stress was operationalized as high job demands and low decision latitude. These working conditions were self-reported in 1999 (study baseline. Traumatic events in the past 12 months were reported in 2000. Sleep quality was assessed in 2000 as disturbed sleep in the past 12 months, and current sleep problems was indexed by the sleep subscale of the Nottingham Health Profile questionnaire. The results showed that recent events interacted with decision latitude, but not job demands, in predicting sleep quality. However, contrary to our expectations, it was 'high' and not low decision latitude at work that amplified the negative association between stressful events and sleep quality. Adjusted for baseline health, individuals with highest numbers of events and highest levels of decision latitude were at highest risk for impaired sleep. These results challenge the idea that high decision latitude always serves as a protective factor, and underscore the necessity for considering a broader life context when studying stress in a particular domain of life.

Deriving user-informed climate information from climate model ensemble results

Science.gov (United States)

Huebener, Heike; Hoffmann, Peter; Keuler, Klaus; Pfeifer, Susanne; Ramthun, Hans; Spekat, Arne; Steger, Christian; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten

2017-07-01

Communication between providers and users of climate model simulation results still needs to be improved. In the German regional climate modeling project ReKliEs-De a midterm user workshop was conducted to allow the intended users of the project results to assess the preliminary results and to streamline the final project results to their needs. The user feedback highlighted, in particular, the still considerable gap between climate research output and user-tailored input for climate impact research. Two major requests from the user community addressed the selection of sub-ensembles and some condensed, easy to understand information on the strengths and weaknesses of the climate models involved in the project.

Bioprinted three dimensional human tissues for toxicology and disease modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Deborah G; Pentoney, Stephen L

2017-03-01

The high rate of attrition among clinical-stage therapies, due largely to an inability to predict human toxicity and/or efficacy, underscores the need for in vitro models that better recapitulate in vivo human biology. In much the same way that additive manufacturing has revolutionized the production of solid objects, three-dimensional (3D) bioprinting is enabling the automated production of more architecturally and functionally accurate in vitro tissue culture models. Here, we provide an overview of the most commonly used bioprinting approaches and how they are being used to generate complex in vitro tissues for use in toxicology and disease modeling research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The unfolded protein response has a protective role in yeast models of classic galactosemia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Evandro A. De-Souza

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Classic galactosemia is a human autosomal recessive disorder caused by mutations in the GALT gene (GAL7 in yeast, which encodes the enzyme galactose-1-phosphate uridyltransferase. Here we show that the unfolded protein response pathway is triggered by galactose in two yeast models of galactosemia: lithium-treated cells and the gal7Δ mutant. The synthesis of galactose-1-phosphate is essential to trigger the unfolded protein response under these conditions because the deletion of the galactokinase-encoding gene GAL1 completely abolishes unfolded protein response activation and galactose toxicity. Impairment of the unfolded protein response in both yeast models makes cells even more sensitive to galactose, unmasking its cytotoxic effect. These results indicate that endoplasmic reticulum stress is induced under galactosemic conditions and underscores the importance of the unfolded protein response pathway to cellular adaptation in these models of classic galactosemia.

Verification of aseismic design model by using experimental results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mizuno, N.; Sugiyama, N.; Suzuki, T.; Shibata, Y.; Miura, K.; Miyagawa, N.

1985-01-01

A lattice model is applied as an analysis model for an aseismic design of the Hamaoka nuclear reactor building. With object to verify an availability of this design model, two reinforced concrete blocks are constructed on the ground and the forced vibration tests are carried out. The test results are well followed by simulation analysis using the lattice model. Damping value of the ground obtained from the test is more conservative than the design value. (orig.)

First results from the International Urban Energy Balance Model Comparison: Model Complexity

Science.gov (United States)

Blackett, M.; Grimmond, S.; Best, M.

2009-04-01

A great variety of urban energy balance models has been developed. These vary in complexity from simple schemes that represent the city as a slab, through those which model various facets (i.e. road, walls and roof) to more complex urban forms (including street canyons with intersections) and features (such as vegetation cover and anthropogenic heat fluxes). Some schemes also incorporate detailed representations of momentum and energy fluxes distributed throughout various layers of the urban canopy layer. The models each differ in the parameters they require to describe the site and the in demands they make on computational processing power. Many of these models have been evaluated using observational datasets but to date, no controlled comparisons have been conducted. Urban surface energy balance models provide a means to predict the energy exchange processes which influence factors such as urban temperature, humidity, atmospheric stability and winds. These all need to be modelled accurately to capture features such as the urban heat island effect and to provide key information for dispersion and air quality modelling. A comparison of the various models available will assist in improving current and future models and will assist in formulating research priorities for future observational campaigns within urban areas. In this presentation we will summarise the initial results of this international urban energy balance model comparison. In particular, the relative performance of the models involved will be compared based on their degree of complexity. These results will inform us on ways in which we can improve the modelling of air quality within, and climate impacts of, global megacities. The methodology employed in conducting this comparison followed that used in PILPS (the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes) which is also endorsed by the GEWEX Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) panel. In all cases, models were run

The effect of bathymetric filtering on nearshore process model results

Science.gov (United States)

Plant, N.G.; Edwards, K.L.; Kaihatu, J.M.; Veeramony, J.; Hsu, L.; Holland, K.T.

2009-01-01

Nearshore wave and flow model results are shown to exhibit a strong sensitivity to the resolution of the input bathymetry. In this analysis, bathymetric resolution was varied by applying smoothing filters to high-resolution survey data to produce a number of bathymetric grid surfaces. We demonstrate that the sensitivity of model-predicted wave height and flow to variations in bathymetric resolution had different characteristics. Wave height predictions were most sensitive to resolution of cross-shore variability associated with the structure of nearshore sandbars. Flow predictions were most sensitive to the resolution of intermediate scale alongshore variability associated with the prominent sandbar rhythmicity. Flow sensitivity increased in cases where a sandbar was closer to shore and shallower. Perhaps the most surprising implication of these results is that the interpolation and smoothing of bathymetric data could be optimized differently for the wave and flow models. We show that errors between observed and modeled flow and wave heights are well predicted by comparing model simulation results using progressively filtered bathymetry to results from the highest resolution simulation. The damage done by over smoothing or inadequate sampling can therefore be estimated using model simulations. We conclude that the ability to quantify prediction errors will be useful for supporting future data assimilation efforts that require this information.

Test results of the SMES model coil. Pulse performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamajima, Takataro; Shimada, Mamoru; Ono, Michitaka

1998-01-01

A model coil for superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES model coil) has been developed to establish the component technologies needed for a small-scale 100 kWh SMES device. The SMES model coil was fabricated, and then performance tests were carried out in 1996. The coil was successfully charged up to around 30 kA and down to zero at the same ramp rate of magnetic field experienced in a 100 kWh SMES device. AC loss in the coil was measured by an enthalpy method as parameters of ramp rate and flat top current. The results were evaluated by an analysis and compared with short-sample test results. The measured hysteresis loss is in good agreement with that estimated from the short-sample results. It was found that the coupling loss of the coil consists of two major coupling time constants. One is a short time constant of about 200 ms, which is in agreement with the test results of a short real conductor. The other is a long time constant of about 30 s, which could not be expected from the short sample test results. (author)

Results of the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, MISMIP

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Pattyn

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Predictions of marine ice-sheet behaviour require models that are able to robustly simulate grounding line migration. We present results of an intercomparison exercise for marine ice-sheet models. Verification is effected by comparison with approximate analytical solutions for flux across the grounding line using simplified geometrical configurations (no lateral variations, no effects of lateral buttressing. Unique steady state grounding line positions exist for ice sheets on a downward sloping bed, while hysteresis occurs across an overdeepened bed, and stable steady state grounding line positions only occur on the downward-sloping sections. Models based on the shallow ice approximation, which does not resolve extensional stresses, do not reproduce the approximate analytical results unless appropriate parameterizations for ice flux are imposed at the grounding line. For extensional-stress resolving "shelfy stream" models, differences between model results were mainly due to the choice of spatial discretization. Moving grid methods were found to be the most accurate at capturing grounding line evolution, since they track the grounding line explicitly. Adaptive mesh refinement can further improve accuracy, including fixed grid models that generally perform poorly at coarse resolution. Fixed grid models, with nested grid representations of the grounding line, are able to generate accurate steady state positions, but can be inaccurate over transients. Only one full-Stokes model was included in the intercomparison, and consequently the accuracy of shelfy stream models as approximations of full-Stokes models remains to be determined in detail, especially during transients.

A Model of Factors Contributing to STEM Learning and Career Orientation

Science.gov (United States)

Nugent, Gwen; Barker, Bradley; Welch, Greg; Grandgenett, Neal; Wu, ChaoRong; Nelson, Carl

2015-05-01

The purpose of this research was to develop and test a model of factors contributing to science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) learning and career orientation, examining the complex paths and relationships among social, motivational, and instructional factors underlying these outcomes for middle school youth. Social cognitive career theory provided the foundation for the research because of its emphasis on explaining mechanisms which influence both career orientations and academic performance. Key constructs investigated were youth STEM interest, self-efficacy, and career outcome expectancy (consequences of particular actions). The study also investigated the effects of prior knowledge, use of problem-solving learning strategies, and the support and influence of informal educators, family members, and peers. A structural equation model was developed, and structural equation modeling procedures were used to test proposed relationships between these constructs. Results showed that educators, peers, and family-influenced youth STEM interest, which in turn predicted their STEM self-efficacy and career outcome expectancy. STEM career orientation was fostered by youth-expected outcomes for such careers. Results suggest that students' pathways to STEM careers and learning can be largely explained by these constructs, and underscore the importance of youth STEM interest.

Meteorological uncertainty of atmospheric dispersion model results (MUD)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Havskov Soerensen, J.; Amstrup, B.; Feddersen, H.

2013-08-01

The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario. However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for long-range atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent uncertainties of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological observations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing e.g. the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observational data, an ensemble of meteorological forecasts is produced from which uncertainties in the various meteorological parameters are estimated, e.g. probabilities for rain. Corresponding ensembles of atmospheric dispersion can now be computed from which uncertainties of predicted radionuclide concentration and deposition patterns can be derived. (Author)

 Functional Results-Oriented Healthcare Leadership: A Novel Leadership Model

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Salem Said Al-Touby

2012-03-01

Full Text Available  This article modifies the traditional functional leadership model to accommodate contemporary needs in healthcare leadership based on two findings. First, the article argues that it is important that the ideal healthcare leadership emphasizes the outcomes of the patient care more than processes and structures used to deliver such care; and secondly, that the leadership must strive to attain effectiveness of their care provision and not merely targeting the attractive option of efficient operations. Based on these premises, the paper reviews the traditional Functional Leadership Model and the three elements that define the type of leadership an organization has namely, the tasks, the individuals, and the team. The article argues that concentrating on any one of these elements is not ideal and proposes adding a new element to the model to construct a novel Functional Result-Oriented healthcare leadership model. The recommended Functional-Results Oriented leadership model embosses the results element on top of the other three elements so that every effort on healthcare leadership is directed towards attaining excellent patient outcomes.

V and V Efforts of Auroral Precipitation Models: Preliminary Results

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Masha; Rastaetter, Lutz; Hesse, Michael

2011-01-01

Auroral precipitation models have been valuable both in terms of space weather applications and space science research. Yet very limited testing has been performed regarding model performance. A variety of auroral models are available, including empirical models that are parameterized by geomagnetic indices or upstream solar wind conditions, now casting models that are based on satellite observations, or those derived from physics-based, coupled global models. In this presentation, we will show our preliminary results regarding V&V efforts of some of the models.

Meteorological uncertainty of atmospheric dispersion model results (MUD)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Havskov Soerensen, J.; Amstrup, B.; Feddersen, H. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen (Denmark)] [and others

2013-08-15

The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario. However, recent developments in numerical weather prediction (NWP) include probabilistic forecasting techniques, which can be utilised also for long-range atmospheric dispersion models. The ensemble statistical methods developed and applied to NWP models aim at describing the inherent uncertainties of the meteorological model results. These uncertainties stem from e.g. limits in meteorological observations used to initialise meteorological forecast series. By perturbing e.g. the initial state of an NWP model run in agreement with the available observational data, an ensemble of meteorological forecasts is produced from which uncertainties in the various meteorological parameters are estimated, e.g. probabilities for rain. Corresponding ensembles of atmospheric dispersion can now be computed from which uncertainties of predicted radionuclide concentration and deposition patterns can be derived. (Author)

An Exploratory Approach to ATEE Output: Some Results and Some Prospects.

Science.gov (United States)

Linne, Agneta; Tarrou, Anne-Lise Hostmark

2001-01-01

Reviews research on teacher education published by the Association for Teacher Education in Europe, examining type of content, purpose, focus of study, and (when appropriate) authors' perspectives and the educational theory perspective chosen. The inquiry underscores the importance of relating teacher education research to general social and…

Preliminary time-phased TWRS process model results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orme, R.M.

1995-01-01

This report documents the first phase of efforts to model the retrieval and processing of Hanford tank waste within the constraints of an assumed tank farm configuration. This time-phased approach simulates a first try at a retrieval sequence, the batching of waste through retrieval facilities, the batching of retrieved waste through enhanced sludge washing, the batching of liquids through pretreatment and low-level waste (LLW) vitrification, and the batching of pretreated solids through high-level waste (HLW) vitrification. The results reflect the outcome of an assumed retrieval sequence that has not been tailored with respect to accepted measures of performance. The batch data, composition variability, and final waste volume projects in this report should be regarded as tentative. Nevertheless, the results provide interesting insights into time-phased processing of the tank waste. Inspection of the composition variability, for example, suggests modifications to the retrieval sequence that will further improve the uniformity of feed to the vitrification facilities. This model will be a valuable tool for evaluating suggested retrieval sequences and establishing a time-phased processing baseline. An official recommendation on tank retrieval sequence will be made in September, 1995

A Network-Based Approach to Modeling and Predicting Product Coconsideration Relations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhenghui Sha

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Understanding customer preferences in consideration decisions is critical to choice modeling in engineering design. While existing literature has shown that the exogenous effects (e.g., product and customer attributes are deciding factors in customers’ consideration decisions, it is not clear how the endogenous effects (e.g., the intercompetition among products would influence such decisions. This paper presents a network-based approach based on Exponential Random Graph Models to study customers’ consideration behaviors according to engineering design. Our proposed approach is capable of modeling the endogenous effects among products through various network structures (e.g., stars and triangles besides the exogenous effects and predicting whether two products would be conisdered together. To assess the proposed model, we compare it against the dyadic network model that only considers exogenous effects. Using buyer survey data from the China automarket in 2013 and 2014, we evaluate the goodness of fit and the predictive power of the two models. The results show that our model has a better fit and predictive accuracy than the dyadic network model. This underscores the importance of the endogenous effects on customers’ consideration decisions. The insights gained from this research help explain how endogenous effects interact with exogeous effects in affecting customers’ decision-making.

Superconducting solenoid model magnet test results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carcagno, R.; Dimarco, J.; Feher, S.; Ginsburg, C.M.; Hess, C.; Kashikhin, V.V.; Orris, D.F.; Pischalnikov, Y.; Sylvester, C.; Tartaglia, M.A.; Terechkine, I.; Tompkins, J.C.; Wokas, T.; Fermilab

2006-01-01

Superconducting solenoid magnets suitable for the room temperature front end of the Fermilab High Intensity Neutrino Source (formerly known as Proton Driver), an 8 GeV superconducting H- linac, have been designed and fabricated at Fermilab, and tested in the Fermilab Magnet Test Facility. We report here results of studies on the first model magnets in this program, including the mechanical properties during fabrication and testing in liquid helium at 4.2 K, quench performance, and magnetic field measurements. We also describe new test facility systems and instrumentation that have been developed to accomplish these tests

Superconducting solenoid model magnet test results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carcagno, R.; Dimarco, J.; Feher, S.; Ginsburg, C.M.; Hess, C.; Kashikhin, V.V.; Orris, D.F.; Pischalnikov, Y.; Sylvester, C.; Tartaglia, M.A.; Terechkine, I.; /Fermilab

2006-08-01

Superconducting solenoid magnets suitable for the room temperature front end of the Fermilab High Intensity Neutrino Source (formerly known as Proton Driver), an 8 GeV superconducting H- linac, have been designed and fabricated at Fermilab, and tested in the Fermilab Magnet Test Facility. We report here results of studies on the first model magnets in this program, including the mechanical properties during fabrication and testing in liquid helium at 4.2 K, quench performance, and magnetic field measurements. We also describe new test facility systems and instrumentation that have been developed to accomplish these tests.

Graph and model transformation tools for model migration : empirical results from the transformation tool contest

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rose, L.M.; Herrmannsdoerfer, M.; Mazanek, S.; Van Gorp, P.M.E.; Buchwald, S.; Horn, T.; Kalnina, E.; Koch, A.; Lano, K.; Schätz, B.; Wimmer, M.

2014-01-01

We describe the results of the Transformation Tool Contest 2010 workshop, in which nine graph and model transformation tools were compared for specifying model migration. The model migration problem—migration of UML activity diagrams from version 1.4 to version 2.2—is non-trivial and practically

Discussion of gas trade model (GTM) results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manne, A.

1989-01-01

This is in response to your invitation to comment on the structure of GTM and also upon the differences between its results and those of other models participating in EMF9. First a word upon the structure. GTM was originally designed to provide both regional and sectoral detail within the North American market for natural gas at a single point in time, e.g. the year 2000. It is a spatial equilibrium model in which a solution is obtained by maximizing a nonlinear function, the sum of consumers and producers surplus. Since transport costs are included in producers cost, this formulation automatically ensures that geographical price differentials will not differ by more than transport costs. For purposes of EMF9, GTM was modified to allow for resource development and depletion over time

Melt coolability modeling and comparison to MACE test results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farmer, M.T.; Sienicki, J.J.; Spencer, B.W.

1992-01-01

An important question in the assessment of severe accidents in light water nuclear reactors is the ability of water to quench a molten corium-concrete interaction and thereby terminate the accident progression. As part of the Melt Attack and Coolability Experiment (MACE) Program, phenomenological models of the corium quenching process are under development. The modeling approach considers both bulk cooldown and crust-limited heat transfer regimes, as well as criteria for the pool thermal hydraulic conditions which separate the two regimes. The model is then compared with results of the MACE experiments

Seeking for the rational basis of the Median Model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Riccio

2007-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper we present an approach for the statistical analysis of multi-model ensemble results. The models considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release of radioactive nuclides.

We first introduce the theoretical basis (with its roots sinking into the Bayes theorem and then apply this approach to the analysis of model results obtained during the ETEX-1 exercise. We recover some interesting results, supporting the heuristic approach called "median model", originally introduced in Galmarini et al. (2004a, b.

This approach also provides a way to systematically reduce (and quantify model uncertainties, thus supporting the decision-making process and/or regulatory-purpose activities in a very effective manner.

Validating predictions from climate envelope models

Science.gov (United States)

Watling, J.; Bucklin, D.; Speroterra, C.; Brandt, L.; Cabal, C.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2013-01-01

Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species’ distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967–1971 (t1) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998–2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.

Validating predictions from climate envelope models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James I Watling

Full Text Available Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species' distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967-1971 (t1 and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998-2002 (t2. Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on

Measurement model choice influenced randomized controlled trial results.

Science.gov (United States)

Gorter, Rosalie; Fox, Jean-Paul; Apeldoorn, Adri; Twisk, Jos

2016-11-01

In randomized controlled trials (RCTs), outcome variables are often patient-reported outcomes measured with questionnaires. Ideally, all available item information is used for score construction, which requires an item response theory (IRT) measurement model. However, in practice, the classical test theory measurement model (sum scores) is mostly used, and differences between response patterns leading to the same sum score are ignored. The enhanced differentiation between scores with IRT enables more precise estimation of individual trajectories over time and group effects. The objective of this study was to show the advantages of using IRT scores instead of sum scores when analyzing RCTs. Two studies are presented, a real-life RCT, and a simulation study. Both IRT and sum scores are used to measure the construct and are subsequently used as outcomes for effect calculation. The bias in RCT results is conditional on the measurement model that was used to construct the scores. A bias in estimated trend of around one standard deviation was found when sum scores were used, where IRT showed negligible bias. Accurate statistical inferences are made from an RCT study when using IRT to estimate construct measurements. The use of sum scores leads to incorrect RCT results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relationship Marketing results: proposition of a cognitive mapping model

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Iná Futino Barreto

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Objective - This research sought to develop a cognitive model that expresses how marketing professionals understand the relationship between the constructs that define relationship marketing (RM. It also tried to understand, using the obtained model, how objectives in this field are achieved. Design/methodology/approach – Through cognitive mapping, we traced 35 individual mental maps, highlighting how each respondent understands the interactions between RM elements. Based on the views of these individuals, we established an aggregate mental map. Theoretical foundation – The topic is based on a literature review that explores the RM concept and its main elements. Based on this review, we listed eleven main constructs. Findings – We established an aggregate mental map that represents the RM structural model. Model analysis identified that CLV is understood as the final result of RM. We also observed that the impact of most of the RM elements on CLV is brokered by loyalty. Personalization and quality, on the other hand, proved to be process input elements, and are the ones that most strongly impact others. Finally, we highlight that elements that punish customers are much less effective than elements that benefit them. Contributions - The model was able to insert core elements of RM, but absent from most formal models: CLV and customization. The analysis allowed us to understand the interactions between the RM elements and how the end result of RM (CLV is formed. This understanding improves knowledge on the subject and helps guide, assess and correct actions.

First Results of Modeling Radiation Belt Electron Dynamics with the SAMI3 Plasmasphere Model

Science.gov (United States)

Komar, C. M.; Glocer, A.; Huba, J.; Fok, M. C. H.; Kang, S. B.; Buzulukova, N.

2017-12-01

The radiation belts were one of the first discoveries of the Space Age some sixty years ago and radiation belt models have been improving since the discovery of the radiation belts. The plasmasphere is one region that has been critically important to determining the dynamics of radiation belt populations. This region of space plays a critical role in describing the distribution of chorus and magnetospheric hiss waves throughout the inner magnetosphere. Both of these waves have been shown to interact with energetic electrons in the radiation belts and can result in the energization or loss of radiation belt electrons. However, radiation belt models have been historically limited in describing the distribution of cold plasmaspheric plasma and have relied on empirically determined plasmasphere models. Some plasmasphere models use an azimuthally symmetric distribution of the plasmasphere which can fail to capture important plasmaspheric dynamics such as the development of plasmaspheric drainage plumes. Previous work have coupled the kinetic bounce-averaged Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (CIMI) model used to model ring current and radiation belt populations with the Block-adaptive Tree Solar wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme (BATSRUS) global magnetohydrodynamic model to self-consistently obtain the magnetospheric magnetic field and ionospheric potential. The present work will utilize this previous coupling and will additionally couple the SAMI3 plasmasphere model to better represent the dynamics on the plasmasphere and its role in determining the distribution of waves throughout the inner magnetosphere. First results on the relevance of chorus, hiss, and ultralow frequency waves on radiation belt electron dynamics will be discussed in context of the June 1st, 2013 storm-time dropout event.

First experiments results about the engineering model of Rapsodie

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chalot, A.; Ginier, R.; Sauvage, M.

1964-01-01

This report deals with the first series of experiments carried out on the engineering model of Rapsodie and on an associated sodium facility set in a laboratory hall of Cadarache. It conveys more precisely: 1/ - The difficulties encountered during the erection and assembly of the engineering model and a compilation of the results of the first series of experiments and tests carried out on this installation (loading of the subassemblies preheating, thermal chocks...). 2/ - The experiments and tests carried out on the two prototypes control rod drive mechanisms which brought to the choice for the design of the definitive drive mechanism. As a whole, the results proved the validity of the general design principles adopted for Rapsodie. (authors) [fr

Circulation in the Gulf of Trieste: measurements and model results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bogunovici, B.; Malacic, V.

2008-01-01

The study presents seasonal variability of currents in the southern part of the Gulf of Trieste. A time series analysis of currents and wind stress for the period 2003-2006, which were measured by the coastal oceanographic buoy, was conducted. A comparison between these data and results obtained from a numerical model of circulation in the Gulf was performed to validate model results. Three different approaches were applied to the wind data to determine the wind stress. Similarities were found between Kondo and Smith approaches while the method of Vera shows differences which were particularly noticeable for lower (= 1 m/s) and higher wind speeds (= 15 m/s). Mean currents in the surface layer are generally outflow currents from the Gulf due to wind forcing (bora). However in all other depth layers inflow currents are dominant. With the principal component analysis (Pca) major and minor axes were determined for all seasons. The major axis of maximum variance in years between 2003 and 2006 is prevailing in Ne-Sw direction, which is parallel to the coastline. Comparison of observation and model results is showing that currents are similar (in direction) for the surface and bottom layers but are significantly different for the middle layer (5-13 m). At a depth between 14-21 m velocities are comparable in direction as well as in magnitude even though model values are higher. Higher values of modelled currents at the surface and near the bottom are explained by higher values of wind stress that were used in the model as driving input with respect to the stress calculated from the measured winds. Larger values of modelled currents near the bottom are related to the larger inflow that needs to compensate for the larger modelled outflow at the surface. However, inspection of the vertical structure of temperature, salinity and density shows that the model is reproducing a weaker density gradient which enables the penetration of the outflow surface currents to larger depths.

Diagnosing the impact of alternative calibration strategies on coupled hydrologic models

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, T. J.; Perera, C.; Corrigan, C.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic models represent a significant tool for understanding, predicting, and responding to the impacts of water on society and society on water resources and, as such, are used extensively in water resources planning and management. Given this important role, the validity and fidelity of hydrologic models is imperative. While extensive focus has been paid to improving hydrologic models through better process representation, better parameter estimation, and better uncertainty quantification, significant challenges remain. In this study, we explore a number of competing model calibration scenarios for simple, coupled snowmelt-runoff models to better understand the sensitivity / variability of parameterizations and its impact on model performance, robustness, fidelity, and transferability. Our analysis highlights the sensitivity of coupled snowmelt-runoff model parameterizations to alterations in calibration approach, underscores the concept of information content in hydrologic modeling, and provides insight into potential strategies for improving model robustness / fidelity.

Results on a Binding Neuron Model and Their Implications for Modified Hourglass Model for Neuronal Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viswanathan Arunachalam

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The classical models of single neuron like Hodgkin-Huxley point neuron or leaky integrate and fire neuron assume the influence of postsynaptic potentials to last till the neuron fires. Vidybida (2008 in a refreshing departure has proposed models for binding neurons in which the trace of an input is remembered only for a finite fixed period of time after which it is forgotten. The binding neurons conform to the behaviour of real neurons and are applicable in constructing fast recurrent networks for computer modeling. This paper develops explicitly several useful results for a binding neuron like the firing time distribution and other statistical characteristics. We also discuss the applicability of the developed results in constructing a modified hourglass network model in which there are interconnected neurons with excitatory as well as inhibitory inputs. Limited simulation results of the hourglass network are presented.

Modelling of tracer-kinetic results using xylene isomerization as an example

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bauer, F.J.; Dermietzel, J.; Roesseler, M.; Koch, H.

1976-01-01

The analysis of results from differential or/and integral reactor experiments often admits the interpretation of a chemical reaction in several ways. In addition, the use of mathematical methods for the model selection and planning of experiments is rendered more difficult by great confidence intervals of the ascertained model parameters. The application of radioactively labelled molecules results in improving the knowledge of reaction mechanisms as well as the assessment of parameters obtained. This is shown on the basis of modelling the isomerization of xylene. (author)

Cardiovascular risk factors among the inhabitants of an urban Congolese community: results of the VITARAA Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pascal M. Bayauli

2014-09-01

Conclusion: Our findings highlight the staggering rates of cardiovascular risk factors in sub-Saharan Africa and underscore the pressing need to move their prevention and control higher on the political agenda.

Lagrangian generic second order traffic flow models for node

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Asma Khelifi

2018-02-01

Full Text Available This study sheds light on higher order macroscopic traffic flow modeling on road networks, thanks to the generic second order models (GSOM family which embeds a myriad of traffic models. It has been demonstrated that such higher order models are easily solved in Lagrangian coordinates which are compatible with both microscopic and macroscopic descriptions. The generalized GSOM model is reformulated in the Lagrangian coordinate system to develop a more efficient numerical method. The difficulty in applying this approach on networks basically resides in dealing with node dynamics. Traffic flow characteristics at node are different from that on homogeneous links. Different geometry features can lead to different critical research issues. For instance, discontinuity in traffic stream can be an important issue for traffic signal operations, while capacity drop may be crucial for lane-merges. The current paper aims to establish and analyze a new adapted node model for macroscopic traffic flow models by applying upstream and downstream boundary conditions on the Lagrangian coordinates in order to perform simulations on networks of roads, and accompanying numerical method. The internal node dynamics between upstream and downstream links are taken into account of the node model. Therefore, a numerical example is provided to underscore the efficiency of this approach. Simulations show that the discretized node model yields accurate results. Additional kinematic waves and contact discontinuities are induced by the variation of the driver attribute.

Modeling the mental health effects of victimization among homeless persons

Science.gov (United States)

Perron, Brian Edward; Alexander-Eitzman, Ben; Gillespie, David F.; Pollio, David

2014-01-01

Homeless persons are victims of violent and non-violent crime at higher rates than housed populations. While studies have suggested that victimization can induce or exacerbate mental health problems, there is very little known about factors that may buffer the effects of victimization. This cross-sectional study examined the influence of victimization on depressive symptoms in over 9600 homeless and mentally ill adults participating in the Access to Community Care and Effective Services and Supports study (ACCESS) conducted in multiple cities across the USA relationships between victimization, depressive symptoms, and perceived safety were tested within a structural equation modeling framework using data collected at the baseline interview. The overall model exhibited a good fit with the data. Non-physical victimization was associated with higher levels of depressive symptoms, and physical victimization was associated with lower levels of perceived safety. As hypothesized, perceived safety was a significant partial mediator of depressive symptoms. These results underscore the complexity of the relationships between victimization and depression in homeless adults and the importance of addressing different types of victimization in homeless and mentally ill adults. PMID:18703266

Modeling the mental health effects of victimization among homeless persons.

Science.gov (United States)

Perron, Brian Edward; Alexander-Eitzman, Ben; Gillespie, David F; Pollio, David

2008-11-01

Homeless persons are victims of violent and non-violent crime at higher rates than housed populations. While studies have suggested that victimization can induce or exacerbate mental health problems, there is very little known about factors that may buffer the effects of victimization. This cross-sectional study examined the influence of victimization on depressive symptoms in over 9600 homeless and mentally ill adults participating in the Access to Community Care and Effective Services and Supports study (ACCESS) conducted in multiple cities across the USA relationships between victimization, depressive symptoms, and perceived safety were tested within a structural equation modeling framework using data collected at the baseline interview. The overall model exhibited a good fit with the data. Non-physical victimization was associated with higher levels of depressive symptoms, and physical victimization was associated with lower levels of perceived safety. As hypothesized, perceived safety was a significant partial mediator of depressive symptoms. These results underscore the complexity of the relationships between victimization and depression in homeless adults and the importance of addressing different types of victimization in homeless and mentally ill adults.

CMS standard model Higgs boson results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Garcia-Abia Pablo

2013-11-01

Full Text Available In July 2012 CMS announced the discovery of a new boson with properties resembling those of the long-sought Higgs boson. The analysis of the proton-proton collision data recorded by the CMS detector at the LHC, corresponding to integrated luminosities of 5.1 fb−1 at √s = 7 TeV and 19.6 fb−1 at √s = 8 TeV, confirm the Higgs-like nature of the new boson, with a signal strength associated with vector bosons and fermions consistent with the expectations for a standard model (SM Higgs boson, and spin-parity clearly favouring the scalar nature of the new boson. In this note I review the updated results of the CMS experiment.

Results from flamelet and non-flamelet models for supersonic combustion

Science.gov (United States)

Ladeinde, Foluso; Li, Wenhai

2017-11-01

Air-breathing propulsion systems (scramjets) have been identified as a viable alternative to rocket engines for improved efficiency. A scramjet engine, which operates at flight Mach numbers around 7 or above, is characterized by the existence of supersonic flow conditions in the combustor. In a dual-mode scramjet, this phenomenon is possible because of the relatively low value of the equivalence ratio and high stagnation temperature, which, together, inhibits thermal choking downstream of transverse injectors. The flamelet method has been our choice for turbulence-combustion interaction modeling and we have extended the basic approach in several dimensions, with a focus on the way the pressure and progress variable are modeled. Improved results have been obtained. We have also examined non-flamelet models, including laminar chemistry (QL), eddy dissipation concept (EDC), and partially-stirred reactor (PaSR). The pressure/progress variable-corrected simulations give better results compared with the original model, with reaction rates that are lower than those from EDC and PaSR. In general, QL tends to over-predict the reaction rate for the supersonic combustion problems investigated in our work.

Noise filtering and nonparametric analysis of microarray data underscores discriminating markers of oral, prostate, lung, ovarian and breast cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dermody James J

2004-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A major goal of cancer research is to identify discrete biomarkers that specifically characterize a given malignancy. These markers are useful in diagnosis, may identify potential targets for drug development, and can aid in evaluating treatment efficacy and predicting patient outcome. Microarray technology has enabled marker discovery from human cells by permitting measurement of steady-state mRNA levels derived from thousands of genes. However many challenging and unresolved issues regarding the acquisition and analysis of microarray data remain, such as accounting for both experimental and biological noise, transcripts whose expression profiles are not normally distributed, guidelines for statistical assessment of false positive/negative rates and comparing data derived from different research groups. This study addresses these issues using Affymetrix HG-U95A and HG-U133 GeneChip data derived from different research groups. Results We present here a simple non parametric approach coupled with noise filtering to identify sets of genes differentially expressed between the normal and cancer states in oral, breast, lung, prostate and ovarian tumors. An important feature of this study is the ability to integrate data from different laboratories, improving the analytical power of the individual results. One of the most interesting findings is the down regulation of genes involved in tissue differentiation. Conclusions This study presents the development and application of a noise model that suppresses noise, limits false positives in the results, and allows integration of results from individual studies derived from different research groups.

A regional climate model for northern Europe: model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Rummukainen, M.; Räisänen, J.; Bringfelt, B.; Ullerstig, A.; Omstedt, A.; Willén, U.; Hansson, U.; Jones, C.

This work presents a regional climate model, the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric model (RCA1), recently developed from the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). The changes in the HIRLAM parametrizations, necessary for climate-length integrations, are described. A regional Baltic Sea ocean model and a modeling system for the Nordic inland lake systems have been coupled with RCA1. The coupled system has been used to downscale 10-year time slices from two different general circulation model (GCM) simulations to provide high-resolution regional interpretation of large-scale modeling. A selection of the results from the control runs, i.e. the present-day climate simulations, are presented: large-scale free atmospheric fields, the surface temperature and precipitation results and results for the on-line simulated regional ocean and lake surface climates. The regional model modifies the surface climate description compared to the GCM simulations, but it is also substantially affected by the biases in the GCM simulations. The regional model also improves the representation of the regional ocean and the inland lakes, compared to the GCM results.

A regional climate model for northern Europe: model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rummukainen, M.; Raeisaenen, J.; Bringfelt, B.; Ullerstig, A.; Omstedt, A.; Willen, U.; Hansson, U.; Jones, C. [Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)

2001-03-01

This work presents a regional climate model, the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric model (RCA1), recently developed from the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). The changes in the HIRLAM parametrizations, necessary for climate-length integrations, are described. A regional Baltic Sea ocean model and a modeling system for the Nordic inland lake systems have been coupled with RCA1. The coupled system has been used to downscale 10-year time slices from two different general circulation model (GCM) simulations to provide high-resolution regional interpretation of large-scale modeling. A selection of the results from the control runs, i.e. the present-day climate simulations, are presented: large-scale free atmospheric fields, the surface temperature and precipitation results and results for the on-line simulated regional ocean and lake surface climates. The regional model modifies the surface climate description compared to the GCM simulations, but it is also substantially affected by the biases in the GCM simulations. The regional model also improves the representation of the regional ocean and the inland lakes, compared to the GCM results. (orig.)

Thermal-Chemical Model Of Subduction: Results And Tests

Science.gov (United States)

Gorczyk, W.; Gerya, T. V.; Connolly, J. A.; Yuen, D. A.; Rudolph, M.

2005-12-01

Seismic structures with strong positive and negative velocity anomalies in the mantle wedge above subduction zones have been interpreted as thermally and/or chemically induced phenomena. We have developed a thermal-chemical model of subduction, which constrains the dynamics of seismic velocity structure beneath volcanic arcs. Our simulations have been calculated over a finite-difference grid with (201×101) to (201×401) regularly spaced Eulerian points, using 0.5 million to 10 billion markers. The model couples numerical thermo-mechanical solution with Gibbs energy minimization to investigate the dynamic behavior of partially molten upwellings from slabs (cold plumes) and structures associated with their development. The model demonstrates two chemically distinct types of plumes (mixed and unmixed), and various rigid body rotation phenomena in the wedge (subduction wheel, fore-arc spin, wedge pin-ball). These thermal-chemical features strongly perturb seismic structure. Their occurrence is dependent on the age of subducting slab and the rate of subduction.The model has been validated through a series of test cases and its results are consistent with a variety of geological and geophysical data. In contrast to models that attribute a purely thermal origin for mantle wedge seismic anomalies, the thermal-chemical model is able to simulate the strong variations of seismic velocity existing beneath volcanic arcs which are associated with development of cold plumes. In particular, molten regions that form beneath volcanic arcs as a consequence of vigorous cold wet plumes are manifest by > 20% variations in the local Poisson ratio, as compared to variations of ~ 2% expected as a consequence of temperature variation within the mantle wedge.

Modeling Results For the ITER Cryogenic Fore Pump. Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pfotenhauer, John M. [University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Zhang, Dongsheng [University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

2014-03-31

A numerical model characterizing the operation of a cryogenic fore-pump (CFP) for ITER has been developed at the University of Wisconsin – Madison during the period from March 15, 2011 through June 30, 2014. The purpose of the ITER-CFP is to separate hydrogen isotopes from helium gas, both making up the exhaust components from the ITER reactor. The model explicitly determines the amount of hydrogen that is captured by the supercritical-helium-cooled pump as a function of the inlet temperature of the supercritical helium, its flow rate, and the inlet conditions of the hydrogen gas flow. Furthermore the model computes the location and amount of hydrogen captured in the pump as a function of time. Throughout the model’s development, and as a calibration check for its results, it has been extensively compared with the measurements of a CFP prototype tested at Oak Ridge National Lab. The results of the model demonstrate that the quantity of captured hydrogen is very sensitive to the inlet temperature of the helium coolant on the outside of the cryopump. Furthermore, the model can be utilized to refine those tests, and suggests methods that could be incorporated in the testing to enhance the usefulness of the measured data.

Modelling Extortion Racket Systems: Preliminary Results

Science.gov (United States)

Nardin, Luis G.; Andrighetto, Giulia; Székely, Áron; Conte, Rosaria

Mafias are highly powerful and deeply entrenched organised criminal groups that cause both economic and social damage. Overcoming, or at least limiting, their harmful effects is a societally beneficial objective, which renders its dynamics understanding an objective of both scientific and political interests. We propose an agent-based simulation model aimed at understanding how independent and combined effects of legal and social norm-based processes help to counter mafias. Our results show that legal processes are effective in directly countering mafias by reducing their activities and changing the behaviour of the rest of population, yet they are not able to change people's mind-set that renders the change fragile. When combined with social norm-based processes, however, people's mind-set shifts towards a culture of legality rendering the observed behaviour resilient to change.

Crude oil market efficiency and modeling. Insights from the multiscaling autocorrelation pattern

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose; Alvarez, Jesus; Solis, Ricardo

2010-01-01

Empirical research on market inefficiencies focuses on the detection of autocorrelations in price time series. In the case of crude oil markets, statistical support is claimed for weak efficiency over a wide range of time-scales. However, the results are still controversial since theoretical arguments point to deviations from efficiency as prices tend to revert towards an equilibrium path. This paper studies the efficiency of crude oil markets by using lagged detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to detect delay effects in price autocorrelations quantified in terms of a multiscaling Hurst exponent (i.e., autocorrelations are dependent of the time scale). Results based on spot price data for the period 1986-2009 indicate important deviations from efficiency associated to lagged autocorrelations, so imposing the random walk for crude oil prices has pronounced costs for forecasting. Evidences in favor of price reversion to a continuously evolving mean underscores the importance of adequately incorporating delay effects and multiscaling behavior in the modeling of crude oil price dynamics. (author)

Crude oil market efficiency and modeling. Insights from the multiscaling autocorrelation pattern

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose [Departamento de Ingenieria de Procesos e Hidraulica, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico D.F., 09340 (Mexico); Departamento de Economia, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico D.F., 09340 (Mexico); Alvarez, Jesus [Departamento de Ingenieria de Procesos e Hidraulica, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico D.F., 09340 (Mexico); Solis, Ricardo [Departamento de Economia, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico D.F., 09340 (Mexico)

2010-09-15

Empirical research on market inefficiencies focuses on the detection of autocorrelations in price time series. In the case of crude oil markets, statistical support is claimed for weak efficiency over a wide range of time-scales. However, the results are still controversial since theoretical arguments point to deviations from efficiency as prices tend to revert towards an equilibrium path. This paper studies the efficiency of crude oil markets by using lagged detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to detect delay effects in price autocorrelations quantified in terms of a multiscaling Hurst exponent (i.e., autocorrelations are dependent of the time scale). Results based on spot price data for the period 1986-2009 indicate important deviations from efficiency associated to lagged autocorrelations, so imposing the random walk for crude oil prices has pronounced costs for forecasting. Evidences in favor of price reversion to a continuously evolving mean underscores the importance of adequately incorporating delay effects and multiscaling behavior in the modeling of crude oil price dynamics. (author)

SR-Site groundwater flow modelling methodology, setup and results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Selroos, Jan-Olof; Follin, Sven

2010-12-01

As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken three groundwater flow modelling studies. These are performed within the SR-Site project and represent time periods with different climate conditions. The simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. Three time periods are addressed; the Excavation and operational phases, the Initial period of temperate climate after closure, and the Remaining part of the reference glacial cycle. The present report is a synthesis of the background reports describing the modelling methodology, setup, and results. It is the primary reference for the conclusions drawn in a SR-Site specific context concerning groundwater flow during the three climate periods. These conclusions are not necessarily provided explicitly in the background reports, but are based on the results provided in these reports. The main results and comparisons presented in the present report are summarised in the SR-Site Main report

SR-Site groundwater flow modelling methodology, setup and results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Selroos, Jan-Olof (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB, Taeby (Sweden))

2010-12-15

As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken three groundwater flow modelling studies. These are performed within the SR-Site project and represent time periods with different climate conditions. The simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. Three time periods are addressed; the Excavation and operational phases, the Initial period of temperate climate after closure, and the Remaining part of the reference glacial cycle. The present report is a synthesis of the background reports describing the modelling methodology, setup, and results. It is the primary reference for the conclusions drawn in a SR-Site specific context concerning groundwater flow during the three climate periods. These conclusions are not necessarily provided explicitly in the background reports, but are based on the results provided in these reports. The main results and comparisons presented in the present report are summarised in the SR-Site Main report.

Comparative genome sequence analysis underscores mycoparasitism as the ancestral life style of Trichoderma

OpenAIRE

Kubicek, Christian P.; Herrera-Estrella, Alfredo; Seidl-Seiboth, Verena; Martinez, Diego A.; Druzhinina, Irina S.; Thon, Michael; Zeilinger, Susanne; Casas-Flores, Sergio; Horwitz, Benjamin A.; Mukherjee, Prasun K.; Mukherjee, Mala; Kredics, László; Alcaraz, Luis D.; Aerts, Andrea; Antal, Zsuzsanna

2011-01-01

Background Mycoparasitism, a lifestyle where one fungus is parasitic on another fungus, has special relevance when the prey is a plant pathogen, providing a strategy for biological control of pests for plant protection. Probably, the most studied biocontrol agents are species of the genus Hypocrea/Trichoderma. Results Here we report an analysis of the genome sequences of the two biocontrol species Trichoderma atroviride (teleomorph Hypocrea atroviridis) and Trichoderma virens (formerly Gliocl...

Some important results from the air pollution distribution model STACKS (1988-1992)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erbrink, J.J.

1993-01-01

Attention is paid to the results of the study on the distribution of air pollutants by high chimney-stacks of electric power plants. An important product of the study is the integrated distribution model STACKS (Short Term Air-pollutant Concentrations Kema modelling System). The improvements and the extensions of STACKS are described in relation to the National Model, which has been used to estimate the environmental effects of individual chimney-stacks. The National Model shows unacceptable variations for high pollutant sources. Based on the results of STACKS revision of the National model has been taken into consideration. By means of the revised National Model a more realistic estimation of the environmental effects of electric power plants can be carried out

Finiteness results for Abelian tree models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Draisma, J.; Eggermont, R.H.

2015-01-01

Equivariant tree models are statistical models used in the reconstruction of phylogenetic trees from genetic data. Here equivariant refers to a symmetry group imposed on the root distribution and on the transition matrices in the model. We prove that if that symmetry group is Abelian, then the

Finiteness results for Abelian tree models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Draisma, J.; Eggermont, R.H.

2012-01-01

Equivariant tree models are statistical models used in the reconstruction of phylogenetic trees from genetic data. Here equivariant refers to a symmetry group imposed on the root distribution and on the transition matrices in the model. We prove that if that symmetry group is Abelian, then the

Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, Philip J; Jongman, Brenden; Weiland, Frederiek Sperna; Winsemius, Hessel C; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; Van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc F P

2013-01-01

Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures. (letter)

Finiteness results for Abelian tree models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Draisma, J.; Eggermont, R.H.

2015-01-01

Equivariant tree models are statistical models used in the reconstruction of phylogenetic trees from genetic data. Here equivariant§ refers to a symmetry group imposed on the root distribution and on the transition matrices in the model. We prove that if that symmetry group is Abelian, then the

CIEMAT model results for Esthwaite Water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aguero, A.; Garcia-Olivares, A.

2000-01-01

This study used the transfer model PRYMA-LO, developed by CIEMAT-IMA, Madrid, Spain, to simulate the transfer of Cs-137 in watershed scenarios. The main processes considered by the model include: transfer of the fallout to the ground, incorporation of the fallout radioisotopes into the water flow, and their removal from the system. The model was tested against observation data obtained in water and sediments of Esthwaite Water, Lake District, UK. This comparison made it possible to calibrate the parameters of the model to the specific scenario

Pathways for the reaction of the butadiene radical cation, [C{sub 4}H{sub 6}]{sup {sm{underscore}bullet}+}, with ethylene

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hofmann, M.; Schaefer, H.F. III

1999-11-04

{minus}16.0 kcal mol{sup {minus}1}) and only transition structures low in energy ({Delta}H{sup 298} is below that of 1 + 2; max {Delta}G{sup 298{double{underscore}dagger}} = 10.4 kcal mol{sup {minus}1} for [1,5]-H shift relative to 1 + 2) are involved. Ethylene, 1, can also add to 2, simultaneously accepting a transferred hydrogen to give a 1,3-hexadiene radical cation. Back dissociation of the latter into 1 + 2 is favored over methyl radical loss.

Animal models of yellow fever and their application in clinical research.

Science.gov (United States)

Julander, Justin G

2016-06-01

Yellow fever virus (YFV) is an arbovirus that causes significant human morbidity and mortality. This virus has been studied intensively over the past century, although there are still no treatment options for those who become infected. Periodic and unpredictable yellow fever (YF) outbreaks in Africa and South America continue to occur and underscore the ongoing need to further understand this viral disease and to develop additional countermeasures to prevent or treat cases of illness. The use of animal models of YF is critical to accomplishing this goal. There are several animal models of YF that replicate various aspects of clinical disease and have provided insight into pathogenic mechanisms of the virus. These typically include mice, hamsters and non-human primates (NHP). The utilities and shortcomings of the available animal models of YF are discussed. Information on recent discoveries that have been made in the field of YFV research is also included as well as important future directions in further ameliorating the morbidity and mortality that occur as a result of YFV infection. It is anticipated that these model systems will help facilitate further improvements in the understanding of this virus and in furthering countermeasures to prevent or treat infections. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling vertical loads in pools resulting from fluid injection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lai, W.; McCauley, E.W.

1978-01-01

Table-top model experiments were performed to investigate pressure suppression pool dynamics effects due to a postulated loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) for the Peachbottom Mark I boiling water reactor containment system. The results guided subsequent conduct of experiments in the 1 / 5 -scale facility and provided new insight into the vertical load function (VLF). Model experiments show an oscillatory VLF with the download typically double-spiked followed by a more gradual sinusoidal upload. The load function contains a high frequency oscillation superimposed on a low frequency one; evidence from measurements indicates that the oscillations are initiated by fluid dynamics phenomena

Lead/acid batteries for photovoltaic applications. Test results and modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Copetti, J B [CIEMAT, Inst. de Energias Renovables, Madrid (Spain); Chenlo, F [CIEMAT, Inst. de Energias Renovables, Madrid (Spain)

1994-01-01

This work presents the results of experiments carried out on lead/acid batteries during charge and discharge processes at different currents and temperatures, selected to a cover a large range of operating conditions, including those encountered in photovoltaic (PV) system applications. The results allow us to verify the relations among the battery external parameters (voltage, current, state-of-charge and temperature), the behaviour of the internal resistance, and to deduce a model that represents the discharge and charge processes, including the overcharge. Finally, normalized equations with respect to the battery capacity are proposed, which allow us to fix the values of parameters and hence the model is valid for any type and size of lead/acid battery. (orig.)

Reconstructing Holocene climate using a climate model: Model strategy and preliminary results

Science.gov (United States)

Haberkorn, K.; Blender, R.; Lunkeit, F.; Fraedrich, K.

2009-04-01

An Earth system model of intermediate complexity (Planet Simulator; PlaSim) is used to reconstruct Holocene climate based on proxy data. The Planet Simulator is a user friendly general circulation model (GCM) suitable for palaeoclimate research. Its easy handling and the modular structure allow for fast and problem dependent simulations. The spectral model is based on the moist primitive equations conserving momentum, mass, energy and moisture. Besides the atmospheric part, a mixed layer-ocean with sea ice and a land surface with biosphere are included. The present-day climate of PlaSim, based on an AMIP II control-run (T21/10L resolution), shows reasonable agreement with ERA-40 reanalysis data. Combining PlaSim with a socio-technological model (GLUES; DFG priority project INTERDYNAMIK) provides improved knowledge on the shift from hunting-gathering to agropastoral subsistence societies. This is achieved by a data assimilation approach, incorporating proxy time series into PlaSim to initialize palaeoclimate simulations during the Holocene. For this, the following strategy is applied: The sensitivities of the terrestrial PlaSim climate are determined with respect to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Here, the focus is the impact of regionally varying SST both in the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. The inverse of these sensitivities is used to determine the SST conditions necessary for the nudging of land and coastal proxy climates. Preliminary results indicate the potential, the uncertainty and the limitations of the method.

Scale Model Thruster Acoustic Measurement Results

Science.gov (United States)

Vargas, Magda; Kenny, R. Jeremy

2013-01-01

The Space Launch System (SLS) Scale Model Acoustic Test (SMAT) is a 5% scale representation of the SLS vehicle, mobile launcher, tower, and launch pad trench. The SLS launch propulsion system will be comprised of the Rocket Assisted Take-Off (RATO) motors representing the solid boosters and 4 Gas Hydrogen (GH2) thrusters representing the core engines. The GH2 thrusters were tested in a horizontal configuration in order to characterize their performance. In Phase 1, a single thruster was fired to determine the engine performance parameters necessary for scaling a single engine. A cluster configuration, consisting of the 4 thrusters, was tested in Phase 2 to integrate the system and determine their combined performance. Acoustic and overpressure data was collected during both test phases in order to characterize the system's acoustic performance. The results from the single thruster and 4- thuster system are discussed and compared.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Golden, Heather E; Knightes, Christopher D; Conrads, Paul A; Feaster, Toby D; Davis, Gary M; Benedict, Stephen T; Bradley, Paul M

2013-09-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Golden, Heather E.; Knightes, Christopher D.; Conrads, Paul; Feaster, Toby D.; Davis, Gary M.; Benedict, Stephen T.; Bradley, Paul M.

2013-01-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling.

EACR-MRS conference on Seed and Soil: In Vivo Models of Metastasis.

Science.gov (United States)

Teles Alves, I; Cohen, N; Ersan, P G; Eyre, R; Godet, I; Holovanchuk, D; Jackstadt, R; Kyjacova, L; Mahal, K; Noguera-Castells, A; Recalde-Percaz, L; Sleeman, J P

2017-12-01

New experimental tools are urgently required to better understand the metastatic process. The importance of such tools is underscored by the fact that many anti-cancer therapies are generally ineffective against established metastases. This makes a major contribution to the fact that metastatic spread is responsible for over 90% of cancer patient deaths. It was therefore timely that the recent "Seed and Soil: In Vivo Models of Metastasis" conference held in Berlin, Germany (27-29 of November 2017) aimed to give an in-depth overview of the latest research models and tools for studying metastasis, and to showcase recent findings from world-leading metastasis researchers. This Meeting Report summarises the major themes of this ground-breaking conference.

Ectromelia Virus Infections of Mice as a Model to Support the Licensure of Anti-Orthopoxvirus Therapeutics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Mark Buller

2010-09-01

Full Text Available The absence of herd immunity to orthopoxviruses and the concern that variola or monkeypox viruses could be used for bioterroristic activities has stimulated the development of therapeutics and safer prophylactics. One major limitation in this process is the lack of accessible human orthopoxvirus infections for clinical efficacy trials; however, drug licensure can be based on orthopoxvirus animal challenge models as described in the “Animal Efficacy Rule”. One such challenge model uses ectromelia virus, an orthopoxvirus, whose natural host is the mouse and is the etiological agent of mousepox. The genetic similarity of ectromelia virus to variola and monkeypox viruses, the common features of the resulting disease, and the convenience of the mouse as a laboratory animal underscores its utility in the study of orthopoxvirus pathogenesis and in the development of therapeutics and prophylactics. In this review we outline how mousepox has been used as a model for smallpox. We also discuss mousepox in the context of mouse strain, route of infection, infectious dose, disease progression, and recovery from infection.

Preliminary results of steel containment vessel model test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsumoto, T.; Komine, K.; Arai, S.

1997-01-01

A high pressure test of a mixed-scaled model (1:10 in geometry and 1:4 in shell thickness) of a steel containment vessel (SCV), representing an improved boiling water reactor (BWR) Mark II containment, was conducted on December 11-12, 1996 at Sandia National Laboratories. This paper describes the preliminary results of the high pressure test. In addition, the preliminary post-test measurement data and the preliminary comparison of test data with pretest analysis predictions are also presented

Results of the eruptive column model inter-comparison study

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, Antonio; Suzuki, Yujiro; Cerminara, M.; Devenish, Ben J.; Esposti Ongaro, T.; Herzog, Michael; Van Eaton, Alexa; Denby, L.C.; Bursik, Marcus; de' Michieli Vitturi, Mattia; Engwell, S.; Neri, Augusto; Barsotti, Sara; Folch, Arnau; Macedonio, Giovanni; Girault, F.; Carazzo, G.; Tait, S.; Kaminski, E.; Mastin, Larry G.; Woodhouse, Mark J.; Phillips, Jeremy C.; Hogg, Andrew J.; Degruyter, Wim; Bonadonna, Costanza

2016-01-01

This study compares and evaluates one-dimensional (1D) and three-dimensional (3D) numerical models of volcanic eruption columns in a set of different inter-comparison exercises. The exercises were designed as a blind test in which a set of common input parameters was given for two reference eruptions, representing a strong and a weak eruption column under different meteorological conditions. Comparing the results of the different models allows us to evaluate their capabilities and target areas for future improvement. Despite their different formulations, the 1D and 3D models provide reasonably consistent predictions of some of the key global descriptors of the volcanic plumes. Variability in plume height, estimated from the standard deviation of model predictions, is within ~ 20% for the weak plume and ~ 10% for the strong plume. Predictions of neutral buoyancy level are also in reasonably good agreement among the different models, with a standard deviation ranging from 9 to 19% (the latter for the weak plume in a windy atmosphere). Overall, these discrepancies are in the range of observational uncertainty of column height. However, there are important differences amongst models in terms of local properties along the plume axis, particularly for the strong plume. Our analysis suggests that the simplified treatment of entrainment in 1D models is adequate to resolve the general behaviour of the weak plume. However, it is inadequate to capture complex features of the strong plume, such as large vortices, partial column collapse, or gravitational fountaining that strongly enhance entrainment in the lower atmosphere. We conclude that there is a need to more accurately quantify entrainment rates, improve the representation of plume radius, and incorporate the effects of column instability in future versions of 1D volcanic plume models.

Conceptual-level workflow modeling of scientific experiments using NMR as a case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gryk Michael R

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Scientific workflows improve the process of scientific experiments by making computations explicit, underscoring data flow, and emphasizing the participation of humans in the process when intuition and human reasoning are required. Workflows for experiments also highlight transitions among experimental phases, allowing intermediate results to be verified and supporting the proper handling of semantic mismatches and different file formats among the various tools used in the scientific process. Thus, scientific workflows are important for the modeling and subsequent capture of bioinformatics-related data. While much research has been conducted on the implementation of scientific workflows, the initial process of actually designing and generating the workflow at the conceptual level has received little consideration. Results We propose a structured process to capture scientific workflows at the conceptual level that allows workflows to be documented efficiently, results in concise models of the workflow and more-correct workflow implementations, and provides insight into the scientific process itself. The approach uses three modeling techniques to model the structural, data flow, and control flow aspects of the workflow. The domain of biomolecular structure determination using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance spectroscopy is used to demonstrate the process. Specifically, we show the application of the approach to capture the workflow for the process of conducting biomolecular analysis using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR spectroscopy. Conclusion Using the approach, we were able to accurately document, in a short amount of time, numerous steps in the process of conducting an experiment using NMR spectroscopy. The resulting models are correct and precise, as outside validation of the models identified only minor omissions in the models. In addition, the models provide an accurate visual description of the control flow for conducting

Evaluating multi-level models to test occupancy state responses of Plethodontid salamanders

Science.gov (United States)

Kroll, Andrew J.; Garcia, Tiffany S.; Jones, Jay E.; Dugger, Catherine; Murden, Blake; Johnson, Josh; Peerman, Summer; Brintz, Ben; Rochelle, Michael

2015-01-01

Plethodontid salamanders are diverse and widely distributed taxa and play critical roles in ecosystem processes. Due to salamander use of structurally complex habitats, and because only a portion of a population is available for sampling, evaluation of sampling designs and estimators is critical to provide strong inference about Plethodontid ecology and responses to conservation and management activities. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the effectiveness of multi-scale and hierarchical single-scale occupancy models in the context of a Before-After Control-Impact (BACI) experimental design with multiple levels of sampling. Also, we fit the hierarchical single-scale model to empirical data collected for Oregon slender and Ensatina salamanders across two years on 66 forest stands in the Cascade Range, Oregon, USA. All models were fit within a Bayesian framework. Estimator precision in both models improved with increasing numbers of primary and secondary sampling units, underscoring the potential gains accrued when adding secondary sampling units. Both models showed evidence of estimator bias at low detection probabilities and low sample sizes; this problem was particularly acute for the multi-scale model. Our results suggested that sufficient sample sizes at both the primary and secondary sampling levels could ameliorate this issue. Empirical data indicated Oregon slender salamander occupancy was associated strongly with the amount of coarse woody debris (posterior mean = 0.74; SD = 0.24); Ensatina occupancy was not associated with amount of coarse woody debris (posterior mean = -0.01; SD = 0.29). Our simulation results indicate that either model is suitable for use in an experimental study of Plethodontid salamanders provided that sample sizes are sufficiently large. However, hierarchical single-scale and multi-scale models describe different processes and estimate different parameters. As a result, we recommend careful consideration of study questions

Evaluating Multi-Level Models to Test Occupancy State Responses of Plethodontid Salamanders.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew J Kroll

Full Text Available Plethodontid salamanders are diverse and widely distributed taxa and play critical roles in ecosystem processes. Due to salamander use of structurally complex habitats, and because only a portion of a population is available for sampling, evaluation of sampling designs and estimators is critical to provide strong inference about Plethodontid ecology and responses to conservation and management activities. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the effectiveness of multi-scale and hierarchical single-scale occupancy models in the context of a Before-After Control-Impact (BACI experimental design with multiple levels of sampling. Also, we fit the hierarchical single-scale model to empirical data collected for Oregon slender and Ensatina salamanders across two years on 66 forest stands in the Cascade Range, Oregon, USA. All models were fit within a Bayesian framework. Estimator precision in both models improved with increasing numbers of primary and secondary sampling units, underscoring the potential gains accrued when adding secondary sampling units. Both models showed evidence of estimator bias at low detection probabilities and low sample sizes; this problem was particularly acute for the multi-scale model. Our results suggested that sufficient sample sizes at both the primary and secondary sampling levels could ameliorate this issue. Empirical data indicated Oregon slender salamander occupancy was associated strongly with the amount of coarse woody debris (posterior mean = 0.74; SD = 0.24; Ensatina occupancy was not associated with amount of coarse woody debris (posterior mean = -0.01; SD = 0.29. Our simulation results indicate that either model is suitable for use in an experimental study of Plethodontid salamanders provided that sample sizes are sufficiently large. However, hierarchical single-scale and multi-scale models describe different processes and estimate different parameters. As a result, we recommend careful consideration of

Velocity-mass correlation of the O-type stars: model results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stone, R.C.

1982-01-01

This paper presents new model results describing the evolution of massive close binaries from their initial ZAMS to post-supernova stages. Unlike the previous conservative study by Stone [Astrophys. J. 232, 520 (1979) (Paper II)], these results allow explicitly for mass loss from the binary system occurring during the core hydrogen- and helium-burning stages of the primary binary star as well as during the Roche lobe overflow. Because of uncertainties in these rates, model results are given for several reasonable choices for these rates. All of the models consistently predict an increasing relation between the peculiar space velocities and masses for runaway OB stars which agrees well with the observed correlations discussed in Stone [Astron. J. 86, 544 (1981) (Paper III)] and also predict a lower limit at Mroughly-equal11M/sub sun/ for the masses of runaway stars, in agreement with the observational limit found by A. Blaauw (Bull. Astron. Inst. Neth. 15, 265, 1961), both of which support the binary-supernova scenario described by van den Heuvel and Heise for the origin of runaway stars. These models also predict that the more massive O stars will produce correspondingly more massive compact remnants, and that most binaries experiencing supernova-induced kick velocities of magnitude V/sub k/> or approx. =300 km s -1 will disrupt following the explosions. The best estimate for this velocity as established from pulsar observations is V/sub k/roughly-equal150 km s -1 , in which case probably only 15% if these binaries will be disrupted by the supernova explosions, and therefore, almost all runaway stars should have either neutron star or black hole companions

A Cognitive Distortions and Deficits Model of Suicide Ideation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura L. Fazakas-DeHoog

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Although cognitive distortions and deficits are known risk factors for the development and escalation of suicide ideation and behaviour, no empirical work has examined how these variables interact to predict suicide ideation. The current study proposes an integrative model of cognitive distortions (hopelessness and negative evaluations of self and future and deficits (problem solving deficits, problem solving avoidance, and cognitive rigidity. To test the integrity of this model, a sample of 397 undergraduate students completed measures of deficits, distortions, and current suicide ideation. A structural equation model demonstrated excellent fit, and findings indicated that only distortions have a direct effect on suicidal thinking, whereas cognitive deficits may exert their effects on suicide ideation via their reciprocal relation with distortions. Findings underscore the importance of both cognitive distortions and deficits for understanding suicidality, which may have implications for preventative efforts and treatment.

School climate, peer victimization, and academic achievement: results from a multi-informant study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Weijun; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Brittain, Heather L; McDougall, Patricia; Krygsman, Amanda; Smith, David; Cunningham, Charles E; Haltigan, J D; Hymel, Shelley

2014-09-01

School-level school climate was examined in relation to self-reported peer victimization and teacher-rated academic achievement (grade point average; GPA). Participants included a sample of 1,023 fifth-grade children nested within 50 schools. Associations between peer victimization, school climate, and GPA were examined using multilevel modeling, with school climate as a contextual variable. Boys and girls reported no differences in victimization by their peers, although boys had lower GPAs than girls. Peer victimization was related to lower GPA and to a poorer perception of school climate (individual-level), which was also associated with lower GPA. Results of multilevel analyses revealed that peer victimization was again negatively associated with GPA, and that lower school-level climate was associated with lower GPA. Although no moderating effects of school-level school climate or sex were observed, the relation between peer victimization and GPA remained significant after taking into account (a) school-level climate scores, (b) individual variability in school-climate scores, and (c) several covariates--ethnicity, absenteeism, household income, parental education, percentage of minority students, type of school, and bullying perpetration. These findings underscore the importance of a positive school climate for academic success and viewing school climate as a fundamental collective school outcome. Results also speak to the importance of viewing peer victimization as being harmfully linked to students' academic performance. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Self-regulation and recall: growth curve modeling of intervention outcomes for older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

West, Robin L; Hastings, Erin C

2011-12-01

Memory training has often been supported as a potential means to improve performance for older adults. Less often studied are the characteristics of trainees that benefit most from training. Using a self-regulatory perspective, the current project examined a latent growth curve model to predict training-related gains for middle-aged and older adult trainees from individual differences (e.g., education), information processing skills (strategy use) and self-regulatory factors such as self-efficacy, control, and active engagement in training. For name recall, a model including strategy usage and strategy change as predictors of memory gain, along with self-efficacy and self-efficacy change, showed comparable fit to a more parsimonious model including only self-efficacy variables as predictors. The best fit to the text recall data was a model focusing on self-efficacy change as the main predictor of memory change, and that model showed significantly better fit than a model also including strategy usage variables as predictors. In these models, overall performance was significantly predicted by age and memory self-efficacy, and subsequent training-related gains in performance were best predicted directly by change in self-efficacy (text recall), or indirectly through the impact of active engagement and self-efficacy on gains (name recall). These results underscore the benefits of targeting self-regulatory factors in intervention programs designed to improve memory skills.

Linear regression metamodeling as a tool to summarize and present simulation model results.

Science.gov (United States)

Jalal, Hawre; Dowd, Bryan; Sainfort, François; Kuntz, Karen M

2013-10-01

Modelers lack a tool to systematically and clearly present complex model results, including those from sensitivity analyses. The objective was to propose linear regression metamodeling as a tool to increase transparency of decision analytic models and better communicate their results. We used a simplified cancer cure model to demonstrate our approach. The model computed the lifetime cost and benefit of 3 treatment options for cancer patients. We simulated 10,000 cohorts in a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and regressed the model outcomes on the standardized input parameter values in a set of regression analyses. We used the regression coefficients to describe measures of sensitivity analyses, including threshold and parameter sensitivity analyses. We also compared the results of the PSA to deterministic full-factorial and one-factor-at-a-time designs. The regression intercept represented the estimated base-case outcome, and the other coefficients described the relative parameter uncertainty in the model. We defined simple relationships that compute the average and incremental net benefit of each intervention. Metamodeling produced outputs similar to traditional deterministic 1-way or 2-way sensitivity analyses but was more reliable since it used all parameter values. Linear regression metamodeling is a simple, yet powerful, tool that can assist modelers in communicating model characteristics and sensitivity analyses.

Some exact results for the three-layer Zamolodchikov model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boos, H.E.; Mangazeev, V.V.

2001-01-01

In this paper we continue the study of the three-layer Zamolodchikov model started in our previous works (H.E. Boos, V.V. Mangazeev, J. Phys. A 32 (1999) 3041-3054 and H.E. Boos, V.V. Mangazeev, J. Phys. A 32 (1999) 5285-5298). We analyse numerically the solutions to the Bethe ansatz equations obtained in H.E. Boos, V.V. Mangazeev, J. Phys. A 32 (1999) 5285-5298. We consider two regimes I and II which differ by the signs of the spherical sides (a 1 ,a 2 ,a 3 )→(-a 1 ,-a 2 ,-a 3 ). We accept the two-line hypothesis for the regime I and the one-line hypothesis for the regime II. In the thermodynamic limit we derive integral equations for distribution densities and solve them exactly. We calculate the partition function for the three-layer Zamolodchikov model and check a compatibility of this result with the functional relations obtained in H.E. Boos, V.V. Mangazeev, J. Phys. A 32 (1999) 5285-5298. We also do some numeric checkings of our results

Dynamics, Stability, and Evolutionary Patterns of Mesoscale Intrathermocline Vortices

Science.gov (United States)

2016-12-01

different manner from a dynamic eddy, which underscores inherent limitations of intrusion modeling in quiescent background states. Finally, it...of observed values. (3) A static eddy dissipates in a very different manner from a dynamic eddy, which underscores inherent limitations of...does not react to the environment in a physical manner . This establishes a need for future research on eddies to be modeled on a dynamically rotating

Initial CGE Model Results Summary Exogenous and Endogenous Variables Tests

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Rivera, Michael Kelly [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2017-08-07

The following discussion presents initial results of tests of the most recent version of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The intent of this is to test and assess the model’s behavioral properties. The test evaluated whether the predicted impacts are reasonable from a qualitative perspective. This issue is whether the predicted change, be it an increase or decrease in other model variables, is consistent with prior economic intuition and expectations about the predicted change. One of the purposes of this effort is to determine whether model changes are needed in order to improve its behavior qualitatively and quantitatively.

Managing a national radiation oncologist workforce: A workforce planning model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stuckless, Teri; Milosevic, Michael; Metz, Catherine de; Parliament, Matthew; Tompkins, Brent; Brundage, Michael

2012-01-01

Purpose: The specialty of radiation oncology has experienced significant workforce planning challenges in many countries. Our purpose was to develop and validate a workforce-planning model that would forecast the balance between supply of, and demand for, radiation oncologists in Canada over a minimum 10-year time frame, to identify the model parameters that most influenced this balance, and to suggest how this model may be applicable to other countries. Methods: A forward calculation model was created and populated with data obtained from national sources. Validation was confirmed using a historical prospective approach. Results: Under baseline assumptions, the model predicts a short-term surplus of RO trainees followed by a projected deficit in 2020. Sensitivity analyses showed that access to radiotherapy (proportion of incident cases referred), individual RO workload, average age of retirement and resident training intake most influenced balance of supply and demand. Within plausible ranges of these parameters, substantial shortages or excess of graduates is possible, underscoring the need for ongoing monitoring. Conclusions: Workforce planning in radiation oncology is possible using a projection calculation model based on current system characteristics and modifiable parameters that influence projections. The workload projections should inform policy decision making regarding growth of the specialty and training program resident intake required to meet oncology health services needs. The methods used are applicable to workforce planning for radiation oncology in other countries and for other comparable medical specialties.

A method for modeling laterally asymmetric proton beamlets resulting from collimation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gelover, Edgar; Wang, Dongxu; Flynn, Ryan T.; Hyer, Daniel E. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Iowa, 200 Hawkins Drive, Iowa City, Iowa 52242 (United States); Hill, Patrick M. [Department of Human Oncology, University of Wisconsin, 600 Highland Avenue, Madison, Wisconsin 53792 (United States); Gao, Mingcheng; Laub, Steve; Pankuch, Mark [Division of Medical Physics, CDH Proton Center, 4455 Weaver Parkway, Warrenville, Illinois 60555 (United States)

2015-03-15

Purpose: To introduce a method to model the 3D dose distribution of laterally asymmetric proton beamlets resulting from collimation. The model enables rapid beamlet calculation for spot scanning (SS) delivery using a novel penumbra-reducing dynamic collimation system (DCS) with two pairs of trimmers oriented perpendicular to each other. Methods: Trimmed beamlet dose distributions in water were simulated with MCNPX and the collimating effects noted in the simulations were validated by experimental measurement. The simulated beamlets were modeled analytically using integral depth dose curves along with an asymmetric Gaussian function to represent fluence in the beam’s eye view (BEV). The BEV parameters consisted of Gaussian standard deviations (sigmas) along each primary axis (σ{sub x1},σ{sub x2},σ{sub y1},σ{sub y2}) together with the spatial location of the maximum dose (μ{sub x},μ{sub y}). Percent depth dose variation with trimmer position was accounted for with a depth-dependent correction function. Beamlet growth with depth was accounted for by combining the in-air divergence with Hong’s fit of the Highland approximation along each axis in the BEV. Results: The beamlet model showed excellent agreement with the Monte Carlo simulation data used as a benchmark. The overall passing rate for a 3D gamma test with 3%/3 mm passing criteria was 96.1% between the analytical model and Monte Carlo data in an example treatment plan. Conclusions: The analytical model is capable of accurately representing individual asymmetric beamlets resulting from use of the DCS. This method enables integration of the DCS into a treatment planning system to perform dose computation in patient datasets. The method could be generalized for use with any SS collimation system in which blades, leaves, or trimmers are used to laterally sharpen beamlets.

A method for modeling laterally asymmetric proton beamlets resulting from collimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gelover, Edgar; Wang, Dongxu; Flynn, Ryan T.; Hyer, Daniel E.; Hill, Patrick M.; Gao, Mingcheng; Laub, Steve; Pankuch, Mark

2015-01-01

Purpose: To introduce a method to model the 3D dose distribution of laterally asymmetric proton beamlets resulting from collimation. The model enables rapid beamlet calculation for spot scanning (SS) delivery using a novel penumbra-reducing dynamic collimation system (DCS) with two pairs of trimmers oriented perpendicular to each other. Methods: Trimmed beamlet dose distributions in water were simulated with MCNPX and the collimating effects noted in the simulations were validated by experimental measurement. The simulated beamlets were modeled analytically using integral depth dose curves along with an asymmetric Gaussian function to represent fluence in the beam’s eye view (BEV). The BEV parameters consisted of Gaussian standard deviations (sigmas) along each primary axis (σ x1 ,σ x2 ,σ y1 ,σ y2 ) together with the spatial location of the maximum dose (μ x ,μ y ). Percent depth dose variation with trimmer position was accounted for with a depth-dependent correction function. Beamlet growth with depth was accounted for by combining the in-air divergence with Hong’s fit of the Highland approximation along each axis in the BEV. Results: The beamlet model showed excellent agreement with the Monte Carlo simulation data used as a benchmark. The overall passing rate for a 3D gamma test with 3%/3 mm passing criteria was 96.1% between the analytical model and Monte Carlo data in an example treatment plan. Conclusions: The analytical model is capable of accurately representing individual asymmetric beamlets resulting from use of the DCS. This method enables integration of the DCS into a treatment planning system to perform dose computation in patient datasets. The method could be generalized for use with any SS collimation system in which blades, leaves, or trimmers are used to laterally sharpen beamlets

A method for modeling laterally asymmetric proton beamlets resulting from collimation

Science.gov (United States)

Gelover, Edgar; Wang, Dongxu; Hill, Patrick M.; Flynn, Ryan T.; Gao, Mingcheng; Laub, Steve; Pankuch, Mark; Hyer, Daniel E.

2015-01-01

Purpose: To introduce a method to model the 3D dose distribution of laterally asymmetric proton beamlets resulting from collimation. The model enables rapid beamlet calculation for spot scanning (SS) delivery using a novel penumbra-reducing dynamic collimation system (DCS) with two pairs of trimmers oriented perpendicular to each other. Methods: Trimmed beamlet dose distributions in water were simulated with MCNPX and the collimating effects noted in the simulations were validated by experimental measurement. The simulated beamlets were modeled analytically using integral depth dose curves along with an asymmetric Gaussian function to represent fluence in the beam’s eye view (BEV). The BEV parameters consisted of Gaussian standard deviations (sigmas) along each primary axis (σx1,σx2,σy1,σy2) together with the spatial location of the maximum dose (μx,μy). Percent depth dose variation with trimmer position was accounted for with a depth-dependent correction function. Beamlet growth with depth was accounted for by combining the in-air divergence with Hong’s fit of the Highland approximation along each axis in the BEV. Results: The beamlet model showed excellent agreement with the Monte Carlo simulation data used as a benchmark. The overall passing rate for a 3D gamma test with 3%/3 mm passing criteria was 96.1% between the analytical model and Monte Carlo data in an example treatment plan. Conclusions: The analytical model is capable of accurately representing individual asymmetric beamlets resulting from use of the DCS. This method enables integration of the DCS into a treatment planning system to perform dose computation in patient datasets. The method could be generalized for use with any SS collimation system in which blades, leaves, or trimmers are used to laterally sharpen beamlets. PMID:25735287

Application of the IPCC model to a Brazilian landfill: First results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Penteado, Roger; Cavalli, Massimo; Magnano, Enrico; Chiampo, Fulvia

2012-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change gave a methodology to estimate the methane emissions from Municipal Solid Wastes landfills, based on a First Order Decay (FOD) model that assumes biodegradation kinetics depending on the type of wastes. This model can be used to estimate both the National greenhouse gas emissions in the industrialized countries as well as the reductions of these emissions in the developing ones when the Clean Development Mechanism, as defined by the Kyoto Protocol, is implemented. In this paper, the FOD model has been use to evaluate the biogas flow rates emitted by a Brazilian landfill and the results have been compared to the extracted ones: some first results can be useful to evidence the weight of key parameters and do a correct use of the model. - Highlights: ► Landfill biogas is greenhouse gas and fuel at the same time. ► In developing countries its collection can implement Kyoto Protocol mechanisms. ► Biogas collection and exploiting become part of energy policy. ► Project economical balance is based on reliable estimates of generated quantities.

Solar Deployment System (SolarDS) Model: Documentation and Sample Results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Denholm, P.; Drury, E.; Margolis, R.

2009-09-01

The Solar Deployment System (SolarDS) model is a bottom-up, market penetration model that simulates the potential adoption of photovoltaics (PV) on residential and commercial rooftops in the continental United States through 2030. NREL developed SolarDS to examine the market competitiveness of PV based on regional solar resources, capital costs, electricity prices, utility rate structures, and federal and local incentives. The model uses the projected financial performance of PV systems to simulate PV adoption for building types and regions then aggregates adoption to state and national levels. The main components of SolarDS include a PV performance simulator, a PV annual revenue calculator, a PV financial performance calculator, a PV market share calculator, and a regional aggregator. The model simulates a variety of installed PV capacity for a range of user-specified input parameters. PV market penetration levels from 15 to 193 GW by 2030 were simulated in preliminary model runs. SolarDS results are primarily driven by three model assumptions: (1) future PV cost reductions, (2) the maximum PV market share assumed for systems with given financial performance, and (3) PV financing parameters and policy-driven assumptions, such as the possible future cost of carbon emissions.

Updated Results from the Michigan Titan Thermospheric General Circulation Model (TTGCM)

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, J. M.; Bougher, S. W.; de Lahaye, V.; Waite, J. H.; Ridley, A.

2006-05-01

This paper presents updated results from the Michigan Titan Thermospheric General Circulation Model (TTGCM) that was recently unveiled in operational form (Bell et al 2005 Spring AGU). Since then, we have incorporated a suite of chemical reactions for the major neutral constituents in Titan's upper atmosphere (N2, CH4). Additionally, some selected minor neutral constituents and major ionic species are also supported in the framework. At this time, HCN, which remains one of the critical thermally active species in the upper atmosphere, remains specified at all altitudes, utilizing profiles derived from recent Cassini-Huygen's measurements. In addition to these improvements, a parallel effort is underway to develop a non-hydrostatic Titan Thermospheric General Circulation Model for further comparisons. In this work, we emphasize the impacts of self-consistent chemistry on the results of the updated TTGCM relative to its frozen chemistry predecessor. Meanwhile, the thermosphere's thermodynamics remains determined by the interplay of solar EUV forcing and HCN rotational cooling, which is calculated by a full line- by-line radiative transfer routine along the lines of Yelle (1991) and Mueller-Wodarg (2000, 2002). In addition to these primary drivers, a treatment of magnetospheric heating is further tested. The model's results will be compared with both the Cassini INMS data and the model of Mueller-Wodarg (2000,2002).

Parental Modeling and Deidentification in Romantic Relationships Among Mexican-origin Youth.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuo, Sally I-Chun; Wheeler, Lorey A; Updegraff, Kimberly A; McHale, Susan M; Umaña-Taylor, Adriana J; Perez-Brena, Norma J

2017-10-01

This study investigated youth's modeling of and de-identification from parents in romantic relationships, using two phases of data from adolescent siblings, mothers, and fathers in 246 Mexican-origin families. Each parent reported his/her marital satisfaction and conflict, and youth reported on parent-adolescent warmth and conflict at Time 1. Youth's reports of modeling of and de-identification from their mothers and fathers and three romantic relationship outcomes were assessed at Time 2. Findings revealed that higher parental marital satisfaction, lower marital conflict, and higher warmth and lower conflict in parent-adolescent relationships were associated with more modeling and less de-identification from parents. Moreover, higher de-identification was linked to a greater likelihood of youth being involved in a romantic relationship and cohabitation, whereas more modeling was linked to a lower likelihood of cohabitation and older age of first sex. Discussion underscores the importance of assessing parental modeling and de-identification and understanding correlates of these processes.

Loss of spent fuel pool cooling PRA: Model and results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siu, N.; Khericha, S.; Conroy, S.; Beck, S.; Blackman, H.

1996-09-01

This letter report documents models for quantifying the likelihood of loss of spent fuel pool cooling; models for identifying post-boiling scenarios that lead to core damage; qualitative and quantitative results generated for a selected plant that account for plant design and operational practices; a comparison of these results and those generated from earlier studies; and a review of available data on spent fuel pool accidents. The results of this study show that for a representative two-unit boiling water reactor, the annual probability of spent fuel pool boiling is 5 x 10 -5 and the annual probability of flooding associated with loss of spent fuel pool cooling scenarios is 1 x 10 -3 . Qualitative arguments are provided to show that the likelihood of core damage due to spent fuel pool boiling accidents is low for most US commercial nuclear power plants. It is also shown that, depending on the design characteristics of a given plant, the likelihood of either: (a) core damage due to spent fuel pool-associated flooding, or (b) spent fuel damage due to pool dryout, may not be negligible

Dermal uptake of phthalates from clothing: Comparison of model to human participant results

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morrison, G. C.; Weschler, Charles J.; Beko, G.

2017-01-01

In this research, we extend a model of transdermal uptake of phthalates to include a layer of clothing. When compared with experimental results, this model better estimates dermal uptake of diethylphthalate and di-n-butylphthalate (DnBP) than a previous model. The model predictions are consistent...

Model unspecific search in CMS. Results at 8 TeV

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Albert, Andreas; Duchardt, Deborah; Hebbeker, Thomas; Knutzen, Simon; Lieb, Jonas; Meyer, Arnd; Pook, Tobias; Roemer, Jonas [III. Physikalisches Institut A, RWTH Aachen University (Germany)

2016-07-01

In the year 2012, CMS collected a total data set of approximately 20 fb{sup -1} in proton-proton collisions at √(s)=8 TeV. Dedicated searches for physics beyond the standard model are commonly designed with the signatures of a given theoretical model in mind. While this approach allows for an optimised sensitivity to the sought-after signal, it may cause unexpected phenomena to be overlooked. In a complementary approach, the Model Unspecific Search in CMS (MUSiC) analyses CMS data in a general way. Depending on the reconstructed final state objects (e.g. electrons), collision events are sorted into classes. In each of the classes, the distributions of selected kinematic variables are compared to standard model simulation. An automated statistical analysis is performed to quantify the agreement between data and prediction. In this talk, the analysis concept is introduced and selected results of the analysis of the 2012 CMS data set are presented.

The dimensional nature of eating pathology: Evidence from a direct comparison of categorical, dimensional, and hybrid models.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Xiaochen; Donnellan, M Brent; Burt, S Alexandra; Klump, Kelly L

2016-07-01

Eating disorders are conceptualized as categorical rather than dimensional in the current major diagnostic system (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders; 5th ed.; American Psychiatric Association, 2013) and in many previous studies. However, previous research has not critically evaluated this assumption or tested hybrid models (e.g., modeling latent variables with both dimensional and categorical features). Accordingly, the current study directly compared categorical, dimensional, and hybrid models for eating pathology in a large, population-based sample. Participants included 3,032 female and male twins (ages 9-30 years) from the Michigan State University Twin Registry. The Minnesota Eating Behaviors Survey was used to assess disordered eating symptoms including body dissatisfaction, weight preoccupation, binge eating, and compensatory behaviors. Results showed that dimensional models best fit the data in the overall sample as well as across subgroups divided by sex and pubertal status (e.g., prepubertal vs. postpubertal). It is interesting to note that the results favored more categorical models when using a case-control subset of our sample with participants who either endorsed substantial eating pathology or no/little eating pathology. Overall, findings provide support for a dimensional conceptualization of eating pathology and underscore the importance of using community samples to capture the full range of severity of eating pathology when investigating questions about taxonomy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Updating the CHAOS series of field models using Swarm data and resulting candidate models for IGRF-12

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Finlay, Chris; Olsen, Nils; Tøffner-Clausen, Lars

th order spline representation with knot points spaced at 0.5 year intervals. The resulting field model is able to consistently fit data from six independent low Earth orbit satellites: Oersted, CHAMP, SAC-C and the three Swarm satellites. As an example, we present comparisons of the excellent model...... therefore conclude that Swarm data is suitable for building high-resolution models of the large-scale internal field, and proceed to extract IGRF-12 candidate models for the main field in epochs 2010 and 2015, as well as the predicted linear secular variarion for 2015-2020. The properties of these IGRF...... candidate models are briefly presented....

Comparison of transient PCRV model test results with analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marchertas, A.H.; Belytschko, T.B.

1979-01-01

Comparisons are made of transient data derived from simple models of a reactor containment vessel with analytical solutions. This effort is a part of the ongoing process of development and testing of the DYNAPCON computer code. The test results used in these comparisons were obtained from scaled models of the British sodium cooled fast breeder program. The test structure is a scaled model of a cylindrically shaped reactor containment vessel made of concrete. This concrete vessel is prestressed axially by holddown bolts spanning the top and bottom slabs along the cylindrical walls, and is also prestressed circumferentially by a number of cables wrapped around the vessel. For test purposes this containment vessel is partially filled with water, which comes in direct contact with the vessel walls. The explosive charge is immersed in the pool of water and is centrally suspended from the top of the vessel. The tests are very similar to the series of tests made for the COVA experimental program, but the vessel here is the prestressed concrete container. (orig.)

A spatial generalized ordered response model to examine highway crash injury severity.

Science.gov (United States)

Castro, Marisol; Paleti, Rajesh; Bhat, Chandra R

2013-03-01

This paper proposes a flexible econometric structure for injury severity analysis at the level of individual crashes that recognizes the ordinal nature of injury severity categories, allows unobserved heterogeneity in the effects of contributing factors, as well as accommodates spatial dependencies in the injury severity levels experienced in crashes that occur close to one another in space. The modeling framework is applied to analyze the injury severity sustained in crashes occurring on highway road segments in Austin, Texas. The sample is drawn from the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) crash incident files from 2009 and includes a variety of crash characteristics, highway design attributes, driver and vehicle characteristics, and environmental factors. The results from our analysis underscore the value of our proposed model for data fit purposes as well as to accurately estimate variable effects. The most important determinants of injury severity on highways, according to our results, are (1) whether any vehicle occupant is ejected, (2) whether collision type is head-on, (3) whether any vehicle involved in the crash overturned, (4) whether any vehicle occupant is unrestrained by a seat-belt, and (5) whether a commercial truck is involved. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The mentally ill in jails and prisons: towards an integrated model of prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Lamberti, J S; Weisman, R L; Schwarzkopf, S B; Price, N; Ashton, R M; Trompeter, J

2001-01-01

Jails and prisons have become a final destination for persons with severe mental illness in America. Addiction, homelessness, and fragmentation of services have contributed to the problem, and have underscored the need for new models of service delivery. Project Link is a university-led consortium of five community agencies in Monroe County, New York that spans healthcare, social service and criminal justice systems. The program features a mobile treatment team with a forensic psychiatrist, a dual diagnosis treatment residence, and culturally competent staff. This paper discusses the importance of service integration in preventing jail and hospital recidivism, and describes steps that Project Link has taken towards integrating healthcare, criminal justice, and social services. Results from a preliminary evaluation suggest that Project Link may be effective in reducing recidivism and in improving community adjustment among severely mentally ill patients with histories of arrest and incarceration.

Discrete Element Modeling Results of Proppant Rearrangement in the Cooke Conductivity Cell

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Earl Mattson; Hai Huang; Michael Conway; Lisa O' Connell

2014-02-01

The study of propped fracture conductivity began in earnest with the development of the Cooke cell which later became part of the initial API standard. Subsequent developments included a patented multicell design to conduct 4 tests in a press at the same time. Other modifications have been used by various investigators. Recent studies by the Stim-Lab proppant consortium have indicated that the flow field across a Cooke proppant conductivity testing cell may not be uniform as initially believed which resulted is significantly different conductivity results. Post test analysis of low temperature metal alloy injections at the termination of proppant testing prior to the release of the applied stress suggest that higher flow is to be expected along the sides and top of the proppant pack than compared to the middle of the pack. To evaluate these experimental findings, a physics-based two-dimensional (2-D) discrete element model (DEM) was developed and applied to simulate proppant rearrangement during stress loading in the Cooke conductivity cell and the resulting porosity field. Analysis of these simulations are critical to understanding the impact of modification to the testing cell as well as understanding key proppant conductivity issues such as how these effects are manifested in proppant concentration testing results. The 2-D DEM model was constructed to represent a realistic cross section of the Cooke cell with a distribution of four material properties, three that represented the Cooke cell (steel, sandstone,square rings), and one representing the proppant. In principle, Cooke cell materials can be approximated as assemblies of independent discrete elements (particles) of various sizes and material properties that interact via cohesive interactions, repulsive forces, and frictional forces. The macroscopic behavior can then be modeled as the collective behavior of many interacting discrete elements. This DEM model is particularly suitable for modeling proppant

Influence of Various Irradiance Models and Their Combination on Simulation Results of Photovoltaic Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Hofmann

2017-09-01

Full Text Available We analyze the output of various state-of-the-art irradiance models for photovoltaic systems. The models include two sun position algorithms, three types of input data time series, nine diffuse fraction models and five transposition models (for tilted surfaces, resulting in 270 different model chains for the photovoltaic (PV system simulation. These model chains are applied to 30 locations worldwide and three different module tracking types, totaling in 24,300 simulations. We show that the simulated PV yearly energy output varies between −5% and +8% for fixed mounted PV modules and between −26% and +14% for modules with two-axis tracking. Model quality varies strongly between locations; sun position algorithms have negligible influence on the simulation results; diffuse fraction models add a lot of variability; and transposition models feature the strongest influence on the simulation results. To highlight the importance of irradiance with high temporal resolution, we present an analysis of the influence of input temporal resolution and simulation models on the inverter clipping losses at varying PV system sizing factors for Lindenberg, Germany. Irradiance in one-minute resolution is essential for accurately calculating inverter clipping losses.

Research on PCPV for BWR - physical model as design tool - main results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fumagalli, E.; Verdelli, G.

1975-01-01

ISMES (Experimental Institute for Models and Structures) is now carrying out a series of tests on physical models as a part of a research programme sponsored by DSR (Studies and Research Direction) of ENEL (Italian State Electricity Board) on behalf of CPN (Nuclear Design and Construction Centre) of ENEL with the aim to experience a 'Thin'-walled PCPV for 'BWR'. The physical model, together with the mathematical model and the rheological model of the materials, is intended as a meaningful design tool. The mathematical model covers the overall structural design phase, (geometries) and the linear behaviour, whereas the physical model, besides of a global information to be compared with the results of the mathematical model, supplies a number of data as the non-linear behaviour up to failure and local conditions (penetration area etc.) are concerned. The aim of the first phase of this research programme is to make a comparison between the calculation and experiment tests as the thicknesses of the wall and the bottom slab are concerned, whereas the second phase of the research deals with the behaviour of the removable lid and its connection with the main structure. To do this, a model in scale 1:10 has been designed which symmetrically reproduces with respect to the equator, the bottom part of the structure. In the bottom slab the penetrations of the prototype design are reproduced, whereas the upper slab is plain. This paper describes the model, and illustrates the main results, underlining the different behaviour of the upper and bottom slabs up to collapse

Linkage of PRA models. Phase 1, Results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, C.L.; Knudsen, J.K.; Kelly, D.L.

1995-12-01

The goal of the Phase I work of the ``Linkage of PRA Models`` project was to postulate methods of providing guidance for US Nuclear Regulator Commission (NRC) personnel on the selection and usage of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models that are best suited to the analysis they are performing. In particular, methods and associated features are provided for (a) the selection of an appropriate PRA model for a particular analysis, (b) complementary evaluation tools for the analysis, and (c) a PRA model cross-referencing method. As part of this work, three areas adjoining ``linking`` analyses to PRA models were investigated: (a) the PRA models that are currently available, (b) the various types of analyses that are performed within the NRC, and (c) the difficulty in trying to provide a ``generic`` classification scheme to groups plants based upon a particular plant attribute.

Linkage of PRA models. Phase 1, Results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, C.L.; Knudsen, J.K.; Kelly, D.L.

1995-12-01

The goal of the Phase I work of the ''Linkage of PRA Models'' project was to postulate methods of providing guidance for US Nuclear Regulator Commission (NRC) personnel on the selection and usage of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models that are best suited to the analysis they are performing. In particular, methods and associated features are provided for (a) the selection of an appropriate PRA model for a particular analysis, (b) complementary evaluation tools for the analysis, and (c) a PRA model cross-referencing method. As part of this work, three areas adjoining ''linking'' analyses to PRA models were investigated: (a) the PRA models that are currently available, (b) the various types of analyses that are performed within the NRC, and (c) the difficulty in trying to provide a ''generic'' classification scheme to groups plants based upon a particular plant attribute

Results and Error Estimates from GRACE Forward Modeling over Greenland, Canada, and Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.

2012-12-01

Forward modeling using a weighted least squares technique allows GRACE information to be projected onto a pre-determined collection of local basins. This decreases the impact of spatial leakage, allowing estimates of mass change to be better localized. The technique is especially valuable where models of current-day mass change are poor, such as over Greenland and Antarctica. However, the accuracy of the forward model technique has not been determined, nor is it known how the distribution of the local basins affects the results. We use a "truth" model composed of hydrology and ice-melt slopes as an example case, to estimate the uncertainties of this forward modeling method and expose those design parameters which may result in an incorrect high-resolution mass distribution. We then apply these optimal parameters in a forward model estimate created from RL05 GRACE data. We compare the resulting mass slopes with the expected systematic errors from the simulation, as well as GIA and basic trend-fitting uncertainties. We also consider whether specific regions (such as Ellesmere Island and Baffin Island) can be estimated reliably using our optimal basin layout.

User's guide to Model Viewer, a program for three-dimensional visualization of ground-water model results

Science.gov (United States)

Hsieh, Paul A.; Winston, Richard B.

2002-01-01

Model Viewer is a computer program that displays the results of three-dimensional groundwater models. Scalar data (such as hydraulic head or solute concentration) may be displayed as a solid or a set of isosurfaces, using a red-to-blue color spectrum to represent a range of scalar values. Vector data (such as velocity or specific discharge) are represented by lines oriented to the vector direction and scaled to the vector magnitude. Model Viewer can also display pathlines, cells or nodes that represent model features such as streams and wells, and auxiliary graphic objects such as grid lines and coordinate axes. Users may crop the model grid in different orientations to examine the interior structure of the data. For transient simulations, Model Viewer can animate the time evolution of the simulated quantities. The current version (1.0) of Model Viewer runs on Microsoft Windows 95, 98, NT and 2000 operating systems, and supports the following models: MODFLOW-2000, MODFLOW-2000 with the Ground-Water Transport Process, MODFLOW-96, MOC3D (Version 3.5), MODPATH, MT3DMS, and SUTRA (Version 2D3D.1). Model Viewer is designed to directly read input and output files from these models, thus minimizing the need for additional postprocessing. This report provides an overview of Model Viewer. Complete instructions on how to use the software are provided in the on-line help pages.

Neuropsychiatric Symptom Modeling in Male and Female C57BL/6J Mice after Experimental Traumatic Brain Injury

Science.gov (United States)

Tucker, Laura B.; Burke, John F.; Fu, Amanda H.

2017-01-01

Abstract Psychiatric symptoms such as anxiety and depression are frequent and persistent complaints following traumatic brain injury (TBI). Modeling these symptoms in animal models of TBI affords the opportunity to determine mechanisms underlying behavioral pathologies and to test potential therapeutic agents. However, testing these symptoms in animal models of TBI has yielded inconsistent results. The goal of the current study was to employ a battery of tests to measure multiple anxiety- and depressive-like symptoms following TBI in C57BL/6J mice, and to determine if male and female mice are differentially affected by the injury. Following controlled cortical impact (CCI) at a parietal location, neither male nor female mice showed depressive-like symptoms as measured by the Porsolt forced-swim test and sucrose preference test. Conclusions regarding anxiety-like behaviors were dependent upon the assay employed; CCI-induced thigmotaxis in the open field suggested an anxiogenic effect of the injury; however, results from the elevated zero maze, light-dark box, and marble-burying tests indicated that CCI reduced anxiety-like behaviors. Fewer anxiety-like behaviors were also associated with the female sex. Increased levels of activity were also measured in female mice and injured mice in these tests, and conclusions regarding anxiety should be taken with caution when experimental manipulations induce changes in baseline activity. These results underscore the irreconcilability of results from studies attempting to model TBI-induced neuropsychiatric symptoms. Changes in injury models or better attempts to replicate the clinical syndrome may improve the translational applicability of rodent models of TBI-induced anxiety and depression. PMID:27149139

Comparison of transient PCRV model test results with analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marchertas, A.H.; Belytschko, T.B.

1979-01-01

Comparisons are made of transient data derived from simple models of a reactor containment vessel with analytical solutions. This effort is a part of the ongoing process of development and testing of the DYNAPCON computer code. The test results used in these comparisons were obtained from scaled models of the British sodium cooled fast breeder program. The test structure is a scaled model of a cylindrically shaped reactor containment vessel made of concrete. This concrete vessel is prestressed axially by holddown bolts spanning the top and bottom slabs along the cylindrical walls, and is also prestressed circumferentially by a number of cables wrapped around the vessel. For test purposes this containment vessel is partially filled with water, which comes in direct contact with the vessel walls. The explosive charge is immersed in the pool of water and is centrally suspended from the top of the vessel. The load history was obtained from an ICECO analysis, using the equations of state for the source and the water. A detailed check of this solution was made to assure that the derived loading did provide the correct input. The DYNAPCON code was then used for the analysis of the prestressed concrete containment model. This analysis required the simulation of prestressing and the response of the model to the applied transient load. The calculations correctly predict the magnitudes of displacements of the PCRV model. In addition, the displacement time histories obtained from the calculations reproduce the general features of the experimental records: the period elongation and amplitude increase as compared to an elastic solution, and also the absence of permanent displacement. However, the period still underestimates the experiment, while the amplitude is generally somewhat large

Global Optimization of Ventricular Myocyte Model to Multi-Variable Objective Improves Predictions of Drug-Induced Torsades de Pointes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Trine Krogh-Madsen

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In silico cardiac myocyte models present powerful tools for drug safety testing and for predicting phenotypical consequences of ion channel mutations, but their accuracy is sometimes limited. For example, several models describing human ventricular electrophysiology perform poorly when simulating effects of long QT mutations. Model optimization represents one way of obtaining models with stronger predictive power. Using a recent human ventricular myocyte model, we demonstrate that model optimization to clinical long QT data, in conjunction with physiologically-based bounds on intracellular calcium and sodium concentrations, better constrains model parameters. To determine if the model optimized to congenital long QT data better predicts risk of drug-induced long QT arrhythmogenesis, in particular Torsades de Pointes risk, we tested the optimized model against a database of known arrhythmogenic and non-arrhythmogenic ion channel blockers. When doing so, the optimized model provided an improved risk assessment. In particular, we demonstrate an elimination of false-positive outcomes generated by the baseline model, in which simulations of non-torsadogenic drugs, in particular verapamil, predict action potential prolongation. Our results underscore the importance of currents beyond those directly impacted by a drug block in determining torsadogenic risk. Our study also highlights the need for rich data in cardiac myocyte model optimization and substantiates such optimization as a method to generate models with higher accuracy of predictions of drug-induced cardiotoxicity.

Models of Automation Surprise: Results of a Field Survey in Aviation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert De Boer

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Automation surprises in aviation continue to be a significant safety concern and the community’s search for effective strategies to mitigate them are ongoing. The literature has offered two fundamentally divergent directions, based on different ideas about the nature of cognition and collaboration with automation. In this paper, we report the results of a field study that empirically compared and contrasted two models of automation surprises: a normative individual-cognition model and a sensemaking model based on distributed cognition. Our data prove a good fit for the sense-making model. This finding is relevant for aviation safety, since our understanding of the cognitive processes that govern human interaction with automation drive what we need to do to reduce the frequency of automation-induced events.

Modelling lung cancer due to radon and smoking in WISMUT miners: Preliminary results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bijwaard, H.; Dekkers, F.; Van Dillen, T.

2011-01-01

A mechanistic two-stage carcinogenesis model has been applied to model lung-cancer mortality in the largest uranium-miner cohort available. Models with and without smoking action both fit the data well. As smoking information is largely missing from the cohort data, a method has been devised to project this information from a case-control study onto the cohort. Model calculations using 256 projections show that the method works well. Preliminary results show that if an explicit smoking action is absent in the model, this is compensated by the values of the baseline parameters. This indicates that in earlier studies performed without smoking information, the results obtained for the radiation parameters are still valid. More importantly, the inclusion of smoking-related parameters shows that these mainly influence the later stages of lung-cancer development. (authors)

Methodology and Results of Mathematical Modelling of Complex Technological Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Mokrova, Nataliya V.

2018-03-01

The methodology of system analysis allows us to draw a mathematical model of the complex technological process. The mathematical description of the plasma-chemical process was proposed. The importance the quenching rate and initial temperature decrease time was confirmed for producing the maximum amount of the target product. The results of numerical integration of the system of differential equations can be used to describe reagent concentrations, plasma jet rate and temperature in order to achieve optimal mode of hardening. Such models are applicable both for solving control problems and predicting future states of sophisticated technological systems.

Validity of observer ratings of the five-factor model of personality traits: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, In-Sue; Wang, Gang; Mount, Michael K

2011-07-01

Conclusions reached in previous research about the magnitude and nature of personality-performance linkages have been based almost exclusively on self-report measures of personality. The purpose of this study is to address this void in the literature by conducting a meta-analysis of the relationship between observer ratings of the five-factor model (FFM) personality traits and overall job performance. Our results show that the operational validities of FFM traits based on observer ratings are higher than those based on self-report ratings. In addition, the results show that when based on observer ratings, all FFM traits are significant predictors of overall performance. Further, observer ratings of FFM traits show meaningful incremental validity over self-reports of corresponding FFM traits in predicting overall performance, but the reverse is not true. We conclude that the validity of FFM traits in predicting overall performance is higher than previously believed, and our results underscore the importance of disentangling the validity of personality traits from the method of measurement of the traits.

Comparative genome sequence analysis underscores mycoparasitism as the ancestral life style of Trichoderma

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Mycoparasitism, a lifestyle where one fungus is parasitic on another fungus, has special relevance when the prey is a plant pathogen, providing a strategy for biological control of pests for plant protection. Probably, the most studied biocontrol agents are species of the genus Hypocrea/Trichoderma. Results Here we report an analysis of the genome sequences of the two biocontrol species Trichoderma atroviride (teleomorph Hypocrea atroviridis) and Trichoderma virens (formerly Gliocladium virens, teleomorph Hypocrea virens), and a comparison with Trichoderma reesei (teleomorph Hypocrea jecorina). These three Trichoderma species display a remarkable conservation of gene order (78 to 96%), and a lack of active mobile elements probably due to repeat-induced point mutation. Several gene families are expanded in the two mycoparasitic species relative to T. reesei or other ascomycetes, and are overrepresented in non-syntenic genome regions. A phylogenetic analysis shows that T. reesei and T. virens are derived relative to T. atroviride. The mycoparasitism-specific genes thus arose in a common Trichoderma ancestor but were subsequently lost in T. reesei. Conclusions The data offer a better understanding of mycoparasitism, and thus enforce the development of improved biocontrol strains for efficient and environmentally friendly protection of plants. PMID:21501500

Portfolio Effects of Renewable Energies - Basics, Models, Exemplary Results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wiese, Andreas; Herrmann, Matthias

2007-07-01

The combination of sites and technologies to so-called renewable energy portfolios, which are being developed and implemented under the same financing umbrella, is currently the subject of intense discussion in the finance world. The resulting portfolio effect may allow the prediction of a higher return with the same risk or the same return with a lower risk - always in comparison with the investment in a single project. Models are currently being developed to analyse this subject and derive the portfolio effect. In particular, the effect of the spatial distribution, as well as the effects of using different technologies, suppliers and cost assumptions with different level of uncertainties, are of importance. Wind parks, photovoltaic, biomass, biogas and hydropower are being considered. The status of the model development and first results are being presented in the current paper. In a first example, the portfolio effect has been calculated and analysed using selected parameters for a wind energy portfolio of 39 sites distributed over Europe. Consequently it has been shown that the predicted yield, with the predetermined probabilities between 75 to 90%, is 3 - 8% higher than the sum of the yields for the individual wind parks using the same probabilities. (auth)

Empirical Results of Modeling EUR/RON Exchange Rate using ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, TARCH and PARCH models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreea – Cristina PETRICĂ

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study consists in examining the changes in the volatility of daily returns of EUR/RON exchange rate using on the one hand symmetric GARCH models (ARCH and GARCH and on the other hand the asymmetric GARCH models (EGARCH, TARCH and PARCH, since the conditional variance is time-varying. The analysis takes into account daily quotations of EUR/RON exchange rate over the period of 04th January 1999 to 13th June 2016. Thus, we are modeling heteroscedasticity by applying different specifications of GARCH models followed by looking for significant parameters and low information criteria (minimum Akaike Information Criterion. All models are estimated using the maximum likelihood method under the assumption of several distributions of the innovation terms such as: Normal (Gaussian distribution, Student’s t distribution, Generalized Error distribution (GED, Student’s with fixed df. Distribution, and GED with fixed parameter distribution. The predominant models turned out to be EGARCH and PARCH models, and the empirical results point out that the best model for estimating daily returns of EUR/RON exchange rate is EGARCH(2,1 with Asymmetric order 2 under the assumption of Student’s t distributed innovation terms. This can be explained by the fact that in case of EGARCH model, the restriction regarding the positivity of the conditional variance is automatically satisfied.

Dream interpretation, affect, and the theory of neuronal group selection: Freud, Winnicott, Bion, and Modell.

Science.gov (United States)

Shields, Walker

2006-12-01

The author uses a dream specimen as interpreted during psychoanalysis to illustrate Modell's hypothesis that Edelman's theory of neuronal group selection (TNGS) may provide a valuable neurobiological model for Freud's dynamic unconscious, imaginative processes in the mind, the retranscription of memory in psychoanalysis, and intersubjective processes in the analytic relationship. He draws parallels between the interpretation of the dream material with keen attention to affect-laden meanings in the evolving analytic relationship in the domain of psychoanalysis and the principles of Edelman's TNGS in the domain of neurobiology. The author notes how this correlation may underscore the importance of dream interpretation in psychoanalysis. He also suggests areas for further investigation in both realms based on study of their interplay.

Exact results for the one dimensional asymmetric exclusion model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Derrida, B.; Evans, M.R.; Pasquier, V.

1993-01-01

The asymmetric exclusion model describes a system of particles hopping in a preferred direction with hard core repulsion. These particles can be thought of as charged particles in a field, as steps of an interface, as cars in a queue. Several exact results concerning the steady state of this system have been obtained recently. The solution consists of representing the weights of the configurations in the steady state as products of non-commuting matrices. (author)

Ex-plant consequence assessment for NUREG-1150: models, typical results, uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sprung, J.L.

1988-01-01

The assessment of ex-plant consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms was performed using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). This paper briefly discusses the following elements of MACCS consequence calculations: input data, phenomena modeled, computational framework, typical results, controlling phenomena, and uncertainties. Wherever possible, NUREG-1150 results will be used to illustrate the discussion. 28 references

Exact results for quantum chaotic systems and one-dimensional fermions from matrix models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simons, B.D.; Lee, P.A.; Altshuler, B.L.

1993-01-01

We demonstrate a striking connection between the universal parametric correlations of the spectra of quantum chaotic systems and a class of integrable quantum hamiltonians. We begin by deriving a non-perturbative expression for the universal m-point correlation function of the spectra of random matrix ensembles in terms of a non-linear supermatrix σ-model. These results are shown to coincide with those from previous studies of weakly disordered metallic systems. We then introduce a continuous matrix model which describes the quantum mechanics of the Sutherland hamiltonian describing particles interacting through an inverse-square pairwise potential. We demonstrate that a field theoretic approach can be employed to determine exact analytical expressions for correlations of the quantum hamiltonian. The results, which are expressed in terms of a non-linear σ-model, are shown to coincide with those for analogous correlation functions of random matrix ensembles after an appropriate change of variables. We also discuss possible generalizations of the matrix model to higher dimensions. These results reveal a common mathematical structure which underlies branches of theoretical physics ranging from continuous matrix models to strongly interacting quantum hamiltonians, and universalities in the spectra of quantum chaotic systems. (orig.)

AFSC/RACE/GAP/Laman: Model Results of Aleutian Island POP distributions

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The data supporting the "Model Results of Aleutian Island POP distributions" manuscript are distribution and abundance of Pacific ocean perch from RACEBase,...

Using Multiple Monthly Water Balance Models to Evaluate Gridded Precipitation Products over Peninsular Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Javier Senent-Aparicio

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The availability of precipitation data is the key driver in the application of hydrological models when simulating streamflow. Ground weather stations are regularly used to measure precipitation. However, spatial coverage is often limited in low-population areas and mountain areas. To overcome this limitation, gridded datasets from remote sensing have been widely used. This study evaluates four widely used global precipitation datasets (GPDs: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B43, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR, the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN, and the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP, against point gauge and gridded dataset observations using multiple monthly water balance models (MWBMs in four different meso-scale basins that cover the main climatic zones of Peninsular Spain. The volumes of precipitation obtained from the GPDs tend to be smaller than those from the gauged data. Results underscore the superiority of the national gridded dataset, although the TRMM provides satisfactory results in simulating streamflow, reaching similar Nash-Sutcliffe values, between 0.70 and 0.95, and an average total volume error of 12% when using the GR2M model. The performance of GPDs highly depends on the climate, so that the more humid the watershed is, the better results can be achieved. The procedures used can be applied in regions with similar case studies to more accurately assess the resources within a system in which there is scarcity of recorded data available.

Recent shell-model results for exotic nuclei

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Utsuno Yusuke

2014-03-01

Full Text Available We report on our recent advancement in the shell model and its applications to exotic nuclei, focusing on the shell evolution and large-scale calculations with the Monte Carlo shell model (MCSM. First, we test the validity of the monopole-based universal interaction (VMU as a shell-model interaction by performing large-scale shell-model calculations in two different mass regions using effective interactions which partly comprise VMU. Those calculations are successful and provide a deeper insight into the shell evolution beyond the single-particle model, in particular showing that the evolution of the spin-orbit splitting due to the tensor force plays a decisive role in the structure of the neutron-rich N ∼ 28 region and antimony isotopes. Next, we give a brief overview of recent developments in MCSM, and show that it is applicable to exotic nuclei that involve many valence orbits. As an example of its applications to exotic nuclei, shape coexistence in 32Mg is examined.

Influence of delayed neutron parameter calculation accuracy on results of modeled WWER scram experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Artemov, V.G.; Gusev, V.I.; Zinatullin, R.E.; Karpov, A.S.

2007-01-01

Using modeled WWER cram rod drop experiments, performed at the Rostov NPP, as an example, the influence of delayed neutron parameters on the modeling results was investigated. The delayed neutron parameter values were taken from both domestic and foreign nuclear databases. Numerical modeling was carried out on the basis of SAPFIR 9 5andWWERrogram package. Parameters of delayed neutrons were acquired from ENDF/B-VI and BNAB-78 validated data files. It was demonstrated that using delay fraction data from different databases in reactivity meters led to significantly different reactivity results. Based on the results of numerically modeled experiments, delayed neutron parameters providing the best agreement between calculated and measured data were selected and recommended for use in reactor calculations (Authors)

SEMI-ANALYTIC GALAXY EVOLUTION (SAGE): MODEL CALIBRATION AND BASIC RESULTS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Croton, Darren J.; Stevens, Adam R. H.; Tonini, Chiara; Garel, Thibault; Bernyk, Maksym; Bibiano, Antonio; Hodkinson, Luke; Mutch, Simon J.; Poole, Gregory B.; Shattow, Genevieve M. [Centre for Astrophysics and Supercomputing, Swinburne University of Technology, P.O. Box 218, Hawthorn, Victoria 3122 (Australia)

2016-02-15

This paper describes a new publicly available codebase for modeling galaxy formation in a cosmological context, the “Semi-Analytic Galaxy Evolution” model, or sage for short.{sup 5} sage is a significant update to the 2006 model of Croton et al. and has been rebuilt to be modular and customizable. The model will run on any N-body simulation whose trees are organized in a supported format and contain a minimum set of basic halo properties. In this work, we present the baryonic prescriptions implemented in sage to describe the formation and evolution of galaxies, and their calibration for three N-body simulations: Millennium, Bolshoi, and GiggleZ. Updated physics include the following: gas accretion, ejection due to feedback, and reincorporation via the galactic fountain; a new gas cooling–radio mode active galactic nucleus (AGN) heating cycle; AGN feedback in the quasar mode; a new treatment of gas in satellite galaxies; and galaxy mergers, disruption, and the build-up of intra-cluster stars. Throughout, we show the results of a common default parameterization on each simulation, with a focus on the local galaxy population.

SEMI-ANALYTIC GALAXY EVOLUTION (SAGE): MODEL CALIBRATION AND BASIC RESULTS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Croton, Darren J.; Stevens, Adam R. H.; Tonini, Chiara; Garel, Thibault; Bernyk, Maksym; Bibiano, Antonio; Hodkinson, Luke; Mutch, Simon J.; Poole, Gregory B.; Shattow, Genevieve M.

2016-01-01

This paper describes a new publicly available codebase for modeling galaxy formation in a cosmological context, the “Semi-Analytic Galaxy Evolution” model, or sage for short. 5 sage is a significant update to the 2006 model of Croton et al. and has been rebuilt to be modular and customizable. The model will run on any N-body simulation whose trees are organized in a supported format and contain a minimum set of basic halo properties. In this work, we present the baryonic prescriptions implemented in sage to describe the formation and evolution of galaxies, and their calibration for three N-body simulations: Millennium, Bolshoi, and GiggleZ. Updated physics include the following: gas accretion, ejection due to feedback, and reincorporation via the galactic fountain; a new gas cooling–radio mode active galactic nucleus (AGN) heating cycle; AGN feedback in the quasar mode; a new treatment of gas in satellite galaxies; and galaxy mergers, disruption, and the build-up of intra-cluster stars. Throughout, we show the results of a common default parameterization on each simulation, with a focus on the local galaxy population

Numerical modelling of radon-222 entry into houses: An outline of techniques and results

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, C.E.

2001-01-01

Numerical modelling is a powerful tool for studies of soil gas and radon-222 entry into houses. It is the purpose of this paper to review some main techniques and results. In the past, modelling has focused on Darcy flow of soil gas (driven by indoor–outdoor pressure differences) and combined...... diffusive and advective transport of radon. Models of different complexity have been used. The simpler ones are finite-difference models with one or two spatial dimensions. The more complex models allow for full three-dimensional and time dependency. Advanced features include: soil heterogeneity, anisotropy......, fractures, moisture, non-uniform soil temperature, non-Darcy flow of gas, and flow caused by changes in the atmospheric pressure. Numerical models can be used to estimate the importance of specific factors for radon entry. Models are also helpful when results obtained in special laboratory or test structure...

VNIR spectral modeling of Mars analogue rocks: first results

Science.gov (United States)

Pompilio, L.; Roush, T.; Pedrazzi, G.; Sgavetti, M.

Knowledge regarding the surface composition of Mars and other bodies of the inner solar system is fundamental to understanding of their origin, evolution, and internal structures. Technological improvements of remote sensors and associated implications for planetary studies have encouraged increased laboratory and field spectroscopy research to model the spectral behavior of terrestrial analogues for planetary surfaces. This approach has proven useful during Martian surface and orbital missions, and petrologic studies of Martian SNC meteorites. Thermal emission data were used to suggest two lithologies occurring on Mars surface: basalt with abundant plagioclase and clinopyroxene and andesite, dominated by plagioclase and volcanic glass [1,2]. Weathered basalt has been suggested as an alternative to the andesite interpretation [3,4]. Orbital VNIR spectral imaging data also suggest the crust is dominantly basaltic, chiefly feldspar and pyroxene [5,6]. A few outcrops of ancient crust have higher concentrations of olivine and low-Ca pyroxene, and have been interpreted as cumulates [6]. Based upon these orbital observations future lander/rover missions can be expected to encounter particulate soils, rocks, and rock outcrops. Approaches to qualitative and quantitative analysis of remotely-acquired spectra have been successfully used to infer the presence and abundance of minerals and to discover compositionally associated spectral trends [7-9]. Both empirical [10] and mathematical [e.g. 11-13] methods have been applied, typically with full compositional knowledge, to chiefly particulate samples and as a result cannot be considered as objective techniques for predicting the compositional information, especially for understanding the spectral behavior of rocks. Extending the compositional modeling efforts to include more rocks and developing objective criteria in the modeling are the next required steps. This is the focus of the present investigation. We present results of

First results with the general equilibrium model GEM-E3 Switzerland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bahn, O.; Frei, C.

2000-01-01

The GEM-E3 model has been implemented and applied for Switzerland. It has been in particular used to assess an ecological tax reform in Switzerland. Results of this analysis are presented here. (author)

Improving Diabetes Care and Health Measures among Hispanics Using Community Health Workers: Results from a Randomized Controlled Trial

Science.gov (United States)

Babamoto, Kenneth S.; Sey, Kwa A.; Camilleri, Angela J.; Karlan, Vicki J.; Catalasan, Joana; Morisky, Donald E.

2009-01-01

The increasing prevalence of diabetes and obesity, growing health disparities, and shortage of bilingual and culturally trained health care professionals underscore the role of trained community health workers (CHWs) to provide economically sustainable and culturally relevant services. This prospective randomized design evaluated the relative…

Exercise and Diet in Obesity Treatment: An Integrative System Dynamics Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Abdel-Hamid, Tarek K.

2003-01-01

Examined the utility of System Dynamics modeling as a vehicle for controlled experimentation to study and gain insight into the impacts of physical activity and diet on body weight and composition. Results underscored the significant interaction effects between physical activity, diet, and body composition and demonstrated the utility of…

Interactive short-term effects of equivalent temperature and air pollution on human mortality in Berlin and Lisbon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burkart, Katrin; Canário, Paulo; Breitner, Susanne; Schneider, Alexandra; Scherber, Katharina; Andrade, Henrique; Alcoforado, Maria João; Endlicher, Wilfried

2013-01-01

There is substantial evidence that both temperature and air pollution are predictors of mortality. Thus far, few studies have focused on the potential interactive effects between the thermal environment and different measures of air pollution. Such interactions, however, are biologically plausible, as (extreme) temperature or increased air pollution might make individuals more susceptible to the effects of each respective predictor. This study investigated the interactive effects between equivalent temperature and air pollution (ozone and particulate matter) in Berlin (Germany) and Lisbon (Portugal) using different types of Poisson regression models. The findings suggest that interactive effects exist between air pollutants and equivalent temperature. Bivariate response surface models and generalised additive models (GAMs) including interaction terms showed an increased risk of mortality during periods of elevated equivalent temperatures and air pollution. Cold effects were mostly unaffected by air pollution. The study underscores the importance of air pollution control in mitigating heat effects. -- Highlights: • Interactive effects between air pollution and equivalent temperature result in augmented excess mortality. • High levels of ozone and particulate matter increase adverse heat effects on human mortality. • Cold effects are mostly unaffected by air pollution. • Findings underscore the importance of air pollution control in mitigating heat-related mortality. -- Interactive effects between air pollution and elevated (equivalent) temperatures underscore the importance of air pollution control in mitigating the adverse effects of heat

Changes to dryland rainfall result in rapid moss mortality and altered soil fertility

Science.gov (United States)

Reed, Sasha C.; Coe, Kirsten K.; Sparks, Jed P.; Housman, David C.; Zelikova, Tamara J.; Belnap, Jayne

2012-01-01

Arid and semi-arid ecosystems cover ~40% of Earth’s terrestrial surface, but we know little about how climate change will affect these widespread landscapes. Like many drylands, the Colorado Plateau in southwestern United States is predicted to experience elevated temperatures and alterations to the timing and amount of annual precipitation. We used a factorial warming and supplemental rainfall experiment on the Colorado Plateau to show that altered precipitation resulted in pronounced mortality of the widespread moss Syntrichia caninervis. Increased frequency of 1.2 mm summer rainfall events reduced moss cover from ~25% of total surface cover to fertility. Mosses are important members in many dryland ecosystems and the community changes observed here reveal how subtle modifications to climate can affect ecosystem structure and function on unexpectedly short timescales. Moreover, mortality resulted from increased precipitation through smaller, more frequent events, underscoring the importance of precipitation event size and timing, and highlighting our inadequate understanding of relationships between climate and ecosystem function in drylands.

Motor Function and Dopamine Release Measurements in Transgenic Huntington’s Disease Model Rats

Science.gov (United States)

Ortiz, Andrea N.; Osterhaus, Gregory L.; Lauderdale, Kelli; Mahoney, Luke; Fowler, Stephen C.; von Hörsten, Stephan; Riess, Olaf; Johnson, Michael A.

2013-01-01

Huntington’s disease (HD) is a fatal, genetic, neurodegenerative disorder characterized by deficits in motor and cognitive function. Here, we have quantitatively characterized motor deficiencies and dopamine release dynamics in transgenic HD model rats. Behavioral analyses were conducted using a newly-developed force-sensing runway and a previously-developed force-plate actometer. Gait disturbances were readily observed in transgenic HD rats at 12 to 15 months of age. Additionally, dopamine system challenge by ip injection of amphetamine also revealed that these rats were resistant to the expression of focused stereotypy compared to wild-type controls. Moreover, dopamine release, evoked by the application of single and multiple electrical stimulus pulses applied at different frequencies, and measured using fast-scan cyclic voltammetry at carbon-fiber microelectrodes, was diminished in transgenic HD rats compared to age-matched wild-type control rats. Collectively, these results underscore the potential contribution of dopamine release alterations to the expression of motor impairments in transgenic HD rats. PMID:22418060

Engineering Glass Passivation Layers -Model Results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skorski, Daniel C.; Ryan, Joseph V.; Strachan, Denis M.; Lepry, William C.

2011-08-08

The immobilization of radioactive waste into glass waste forms is a baseline process of nuclear waste management not only in the United States, but worldwide. The rate of radionuclide release from these glasses is a critical measure of the quality of the waste form. Over long-term tests and using extrapolations of ancient analogues, it has been shown that well designed glasses exhibit a dissolution rate that quickly decreases to a slow residual rate for the lifetime of the glass. The mechanistic cause of this decreased corrosion rate is a subject of debate, with one of the major theories suggesting that the decrease is caused by the formation of corrosion products in such a manner as to present a diffusion barrier on the surface of the glass. Although there is much evidence of this type of mechanism, there has been no attempt to engineer the effect to maximize the passivating qualities of the corrosion products. This study represents the first attempt to engineer the creation of passivating phases on the surface of glasses. Our approach utilizes interactions between the dissolving glass and elements from the disposal environment to create impermeable capping layers. By drawing from other corrosion studies in areas where passivation layers have been successfully engineered to protect the bulk material, we present here a report on mineral phases that are likely have a morphological tendency to encrust the surface of the glass. Our modeling has focused on using the AFCI glass system in a carbonate, sulfate, and phosphate rich environment. We evaluate the minerals predicted to form to determine the likelihood of the formation of a protective layer on the surface of the glass. We have also modeled individual ions in solutions vs. pH and the addition of aluminum and silicon. These results allow us to understand the pH and ion concentration dependence of mineral formation. We have determined that iron minerals are likely to form a complete incrustation layer and we plan

Model unspecific search in CMS. First results at 13 TeV

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roemer, Jonas; Albert, Andreas; Duchardt, Deborah; Hebbeker, Thomas; Knutzen, Simon; Lieb, Jonas; Meyer, Arnd; Pook, Tobias [III. Physikalisches Institut A, RWTH Aachen University (Germany)

2016-07-01

Following an upgrade in center of mass energy from √(s) = 8 TeV to 13 TeV, the LHC delivered first proton-proton collisions at this unprecedented energy in 2015. The CMS experiment recorded data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.7 fb{sup -1}. Since many theoretical models predict signal cross sections to increase strongly with the center of mass energy, the data taken at √(s) = 13 TeV are competitive to the previous data taking period even with a lower recorded integrated luminosity. The Model Unspecific Search in CMS (MUSiC) searches for physics beyond the standard model independent of theoretical models. Using an automatic method, kinematic distributions of the data are compared with the standard model expectation in every final state. Therefore, MUSiC reduces the chance of overlooking new physics, since even distributions not covered by dedicated analyses are investigated. This talk outlines changes to the analysis made necessary by the increased center of mass energy and first results with lepton triggered events.

New results in the Dual Parton Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van, J.T.T.; Capella, A.

1984-01-01

In this paper, the similarity between the x distribution for particle production and the fragmentation functions are observed in e+e- collisions and in deep inelastic scattering are presented. Based on the observation, the authors develop a complete approach to multiparticle production which incorporates the most important features and concepts learned about high energy collisions. 1. Topological expansion : the dominant diagram at high energy corresponds to the simplest topology. 2. Unitarity : diagrams of various topology contribute to the cross sections in a way that unitary is preserved. 3. Regge behaviour and Duality. 4. Partonic structure of hadrons. These general theoretical ideas, result from many joint experimental and theoretical efforts on the study of soft hadron physics. The dual parton model is able to explain all the experimental features from FNAL to SPS collider energies. It has all the properties of an S-matrix theory and provides a unified description of hadron-hadron, hadron-nucleus and nucleus-nucleus collisions

Waste glass corrosion modeling: Comparison with experimental results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bourcier, W.L.

1994-01-01

Models for borosilicate glass dissolution must account for the processes of (1) kinetically-controlled network dissolution, (2) precipitation of secondary phases, (3) ion exchange, (4) rate-limiting diffusive transport of silica through a hydrous surface reaction layer, and (5) specific glass surface interactions with dissolved cations and anions. Current long-term corrosion models for borosilicate glass employ a rate equation consistent with transition state theory embodied in a geochemical reaction-path modeling program that calculates aqueous phase speciation and mineral precipitation/dissolution. These models are currently under development. Future experimental and modeling work to better quantify the rate-controlling processes and validate these models are necessary before the models can be used in repository performance assessment calculations

Analytical results for a stochastic model of gene expression with arbitrary partitioning of proteins

Science.gov (United States)

Tschirhart, Hugo; Platini, Thierry

2018-05-01

In biophysics, the search for analytical solutions of stochastic models of cellular processes is often a challenging task. In recent work on models of gene expression, it was shown that a mapping based on partitioning of Poisson arrivals (PPA-mapping) can lead to exact solutions for previously unsolved problems. While the approach can be used in general when the model involves Poisson processes corresponding to creation or degradation, current applications of the method and new results derived using it have been limited to date. In this paper, we present the exact solution of a variation of the two-stage model of gene expression (with time dependent transition rates) describing the arbitrary partitioning of proteins. The methodology proposed makes full use of the PPA-mapping by transforming the original problem into a new process describing the evolution of three biological switches. Based on a succession of transformations, the method leads to a hierarchy of reduced models. We give an integral expression of the time dependent generating function as well as explicit results for the mean, variance, and correlation function. Finally, we discuss how results for time dependent parameters can be extended to the three-stage model and used to make inferences about models with parameter fluctuations induced by hidden stochastic variables.

Non-local energy density functionals: models plus some exact general results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

March, N.H.

2001-02-01

Holas and March (Phys. Rev. A51, 2040, 1995) gave a formally exact expression for the force - δV xc (r-tilde)/δr-tilde associated with the exchange-correlation potential V xc (r-tilde) of density functional theory. This forged a precise link between first- and second-order density matrices and V xc (r-tilde). Here models are presented in which these low-order matrices can be related to the ground-state electron density. This allows non-local energy density functionals to be constructed within the framework of such models. Finally, results emerging from these models have led to the derivation of some exact 'nuclear cusp' relations for exchange and correlation energy densities in molecules, clusters and condensed phases. (author)

Comparison of pellet acceleration model results to experimentally observed penetration depths

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Szepesi, T., E-mail: szepesi.tamas@gmail.co [KFKI - Research Institute for Particle and Nuclear Physics, EURATOM Association, MTA KFKI-RMKI, P.O. Box 49, H-1525 Budapest-114 (Hungary); Kalvin, S.; Kocsis, G. [KFKI - Research Institute for Particle and Nuclear Physics, EURATOM Association, MTA KFKI-RMKI, P.O. Box 49, H-1525 Budapest-114 (Hungary); Lang, P.T. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, EURATOM Association, Boltzmannstr. 2, 85748 Garching (Germany); Senichenkov, I. [Saint Petersburg State Polytechnical University, Polytehnicheskaya 29, 195251 St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

2009-06-15

Cryogenic hydrogen isotope fuelling pellets were observed to undergo strong radial acceleration in the confined plasma. The reason for pellet acceleration is believed to originate from drift effects: the ionised part of pellet cloud is affected by the grad-B drift, therefore, the cloud becomes polarised. The E x B drift then deforms the pellet cloud so that it can no longer follow the original flux bundle - this results in a less efficient shielding on the pellet's HFS region, where the subsequently enhanced ablation pushes the pellet towards LFS, like a rocket. In order to study this effect, a simple and a comprehensive ablation model was developed. Results from both models show quantitatively acceptable agreement with ASDEX-Upgrade experiments concerning trajectory curvature, corresponding to radial acceleration in the range of 10{sup 4}-10{sup 7} m/s{sup 2}.

Parameter uncertainty and model predictions: a review of Monte Carlo results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gardner, R.H.; O'Neill, R.V.

1979-01-01

Studies of parameter variability by Monte Carlo analysis are reviewed using repeated simulations of the model with randomly selected parameter values. At the beginning of each simulation, parameter values are chosen from specific frequency distributions. This process is continued for a number of iterations sufficient to converge on an estimate of the frequency distribution of the output variables. The purpose was to explore the general properties of error propagaton in models. Testing the implicit assumptions of analytical methods and pointing out counter-intuitive results produced by the Monte Carlo approach are additional points covered

Waste glass corrosion modeling: Comparison with experimental results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bourcier, W.L.

1993-11-01

A chemical model of glass corrosion will be used to predict the rates of release of radionuclides from borosilicate glass waste forms in high-level waste repositories. The model will be used both to calculate the rate of degradation of the glass, and also to predict the effects of chemical interactions between the glass and repository materials such as spent fuel, canister and container materials, backfill, cements, grouts, and others. Coupling between the degradation processes affecting all these materials is expected. Models for borosilicate glass dissolution must account for the processes of (1) kinetically-controlled network dissolution, (2) precipitation of secondary phases, (3) ion exchange, (4) rate-limiting diffusive transport of silica through a hydrous surface reaction layer, and (5) specific glass surface interactions with dissolved cations and anions. Current long-term corrosion models for borosilicate glass employ a rate equation consistent with transition state theory embodied in a geochemical reaction-path modeling program that calculates aqueous phase speciation and mineral precipitation/dissolution. These models are currently under development. Future experimental and modeling work to better quantify the rate-controlling processes and validate these models are necessary before the models can be used in repository performance assessment calculations

LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

Science.gov (United States)

Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Bradford, John B.; Kolka, Randall K.; Birdsey, Richard A.; Ryan, Michael G.

2015-01-01

Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both residual spatial dependence and non-stationarity of model covariates through the introduction of spatial random effects. We explored this objective using four forest inventory datasets that are part of the North American Carbon Program, each comprising point-referenced measures of above-ground forest biomass and discrete LiDAR. For each dataset, we considered at least five regression model specifications of varying complexity. Models were assessed based on goodness of fit criteria and predictive performance using a 10-fold cross-validation procedure. Results showed that the addition of spatial random effects to the regression model intercept improved fit and predictive performance in the presence of substantial residual spatial dependence. Additionally, in some cases, allowing either some or all regression slope parameters to vary spatially, via the addition of spatial random effects, further improved model fit and predictive performance. In other instances, models showed improved fit but decreased predictive performance—indicating over-fitting and underscoring the need for cross-validation to assess predictive ability. The proposed Bayesian modeling framework provided access to pixel-level posterior predictive distributions that were useful for uncertainty mapping, diagnosing spatial extrapolation issues, revealing missing model covariates, and discovering locally significant parameters.

Study on driver model for hybrid truck based on driving simulator experimental results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dam Hoang Phuc

2018-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a proposed car-following driver model taking into account some features of both the compensatory and anticipatory model representing the human pedal operation has been verified by driving simulator experiments with several real drivers. The comparison between computer simulations performed by determined model parameters with the experimental results confirm the correctness of this mathematical driver model and identified model parameters. Then the driver model is joined to a hybrid vehicle dynamics model and the moderate car following maneuver simulations with various driver parameters are conducted to investigate influences of driver parameters on vehicle dynamics response and fuel economy. Finally, major driver parameters involved in the longitudinal control of drivers are clarified. Keywords: Driver model, Driver-vehicle closed-loop system, Car Following, Driving simulator/hybrid electric vehicle (B1

Dynamic analysis of ITER tokamak. Based on results of vibration test using scaled model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takeda, Nobukazu; Kakudate, Satoshi; Nakahira, Masataka

2005-01-01

The vibration experiments of the support structures with flexible plates for the ITER major components such as toroidal field coil (TF coil) and vacuum vessel (VV) were performed using small-sized flexible plates aiming to obtain its basic mechanical characteristics such as dependence of the stiffness on the loading angle. The experimental results were compared with the analytical ones in order to estimate an adequate analytical model for ITER support structure with flexible plates. As a result, the bolt connection of the flexible plates on the base plate strongly affected on the stiffness of the flexible plates. After studies of modeling the connection of the bolts, it is found that the analytical results modeling the bolts with finite stiffness only in the axial direction and infinite stiffness in the other directions agree well with the experimental ones. Based on this, numerical analysis regarding the actual support structure of the ITER VV and TF coil was performed. The support structure composed of flexible plates and connection bolts was modeled as a spring composed of only two spring elements simulating the in-plane and out-of-plane stiffness of the support structure with flexible plates including the effect of connection bolts. The stiffness of both spring models for VV and TF coil agree well with that of shell models, simulating actual structures such as flexible plates and connection bolts based on the experimental results. It is therefore found that the spring model with the only two values of stiffness enables to simplify the complicated support structure with flexible plates for the dynamic analysis of the VV and TF coil. Using the proposed spring model, the dynamic analysis of the VV and TF coil for the ITER were performed to estimate the integrity under the design earthquake. As a result, it is found that the maximum relative displacement of 8.6 mm between VV and TF coil is much less than 100 mm, so that the integrity of the VV and TF coil of the

Higher plant modelling for life support applications: first results of a simple mechanistic model

Science.gov (United States)

Hezard, Pauline; Dussap, Claude-Gilles; Sasidharan L, Swathy

2012-07-01

In the case of closed ecological life support systems, the air and water regeneration and food production are performed using microorganisms and higher plants. Wheat, rice, soybean, lettuce, tomato or other types of eatable annual plants produce fresh food while recycling CO2 into breathable oxygen. Additionally, they evaporate a large quantity of water, which can be condensed and used as potable water. This shows that recycling functions of air revitalization and food production are completely linked. Consequently, the control of a growth chamber for higher plant production has to be performed with efficient mechanistic models, in order to ensure a realistic prediction of plant behaviour, water and gas recycling whatever the environmental conditions. Purely mechanistic models of plant production in controlled environments are not available yet. This is the reason why new models must be developed and validated. This work concerns the design and test of a simplified version of a mathematical model coupling plant architecture and mass balance purposes in order to compare its results with available data of lettuce grown in closed and controlled chambers. The carbon exchange rate, water absorption and evaporation rate, biomass fresh weight as well as leaf surface are modelled and compared with available data. The model consists of four modules. The first one evaluates plant architecture, like total leaf surface, leaf area index and stem length data. The second one calculates the rate of matter and energy exchange depending on architectural and environmental data: light absorption in the canopy, CO2 uptake or release, water uptake and evapotranspiration. The third module evaluates which of the previous rates is limiting overall biomass growth; and the last one calculates biomass growth rate depending on matter exchange rates, using a global stoichiometric equation. All these rates are a set of differential equations, which are integrated with time in order to provide

Further Results on Dynamic Additive Hazard Rate Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhengcheng Zhang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In the past, the proportional and additive hazard rate models have been investigated in the works. Nanda and Das (2011 introduced and studied the dynamic proportional (reversed hazard rate model. In this paper we study the dynamic additive hazard rate model, and investigate its aging properties for different aging classes. The closure of the model under some stochastic orders has also been investigated. Some examples are also given to illustrate different aging properties and stochastic comparisons of the model.

Computation and experiment results of the grounding model of Three Gorges Power Plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wen Xishan; Zhang Yuanfang; Yu Jianhui; Chen Cixuan [Wuhan University of Hydraulic and Electrical Engineering (China); Qin Liming; Xu Jun; Shu Lianfu [Yangtze River Water Resources Commission, Wuhan (China)

1999-07-01

A model for the computation of the grounding parameters of the grids of Three Gorges Power Plant (TGPP) on the Yangtze River is presented in this paper. Using this model computation and analysis of grounding grids is carried out. The results show that reinforcing the grid of the dam is the main body of current dissipation. It must be reliably welded to form a good grounding grid. The experimental results show that the method and program of the computations are correct. (UK)

Results and Error Estimates from GRACE Forward Modeling over Antarctica

Science.gov (United States)

Bonin, Jennifer; Chambers, Don

2013-04-01

Forward modeling using a weighted least squares technique allows GRACE information to be projected onto a pre-determined collection of local basins. This decreases the impact of spatial leakage, allowing estimates of mass change to be better localized. The technique is especially valuable where models of current-day mass change are poor, such as over Antarctica. However when tested previously, the least squares technique has required constraints in the form of added process noise in order to be reliable. Poor choice of local basin layout has also adversely affected results, as has the choice of spatial smoothing used with GRACE. To develop design parameters which will result in correct high-resolution mass detection and to estimate the systematic errors of the method over Antarctica, we use a "truth" simulation of the Antarctic signal. We apply the optimal parameters found from the simulation to RL05 GRACE data across Antarctica and the surrounding ocean. We particularly focus on separating the Antarctic peninsula's mass signal from that of the rest of western Antarctica. Additionally, we characterize how well the technique works for removing land leakage signal from the nearby ocean, particularly that near the Drake Passage.

Extending positive CLASS results across multiple instructors and multiple classes of Modeling Instruction

Science.gov (United States)

Brewe, Eric; Traxler, Adrienne; de la Garza, Jorge; Kramer, Laird H.

2013-12-01

We report on a multiyear study of student attitudes measured with the Colorado Learning Attitudes about Science Survey in calculus-based introductory physics taught with the Modeling Instruction curriculum. We find that five of six instructors and eight of nine sections using Modeling Instruction showed significantly improved attitudes from pre- to postcourse. Cohen’s d effect sizes range from 0.08 to 0.95 for individual instructors. The average effect was d=0.45, with a 95% confidence interval of (0.26-0.64). These results build on previously published results showing positive shifts in attitudes from Modeling Instruction classes. We interpret these data in light of other published positive attitudinal shifts and explore mechanistic explanations for similarities and differences with other published positive shifts.

Geochemical controls on shale groundwaters: Results of reaction path modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Von Damm, K.L.; VandenBrook, A.J.

1989-03-01

The EQ3NR/EQ6 geochemical modeling code was used to simulate the reaction of several shale mineralogies with different groundwater compositions in order to elucidate changes that may occur in both the groundwater compositions, and rock mineralogies and compositions under conditions which may be encountered in a high-level radioactive waste repository. Shales with primarily illitic or smectitic compositions were the focus of this study. The reactions were run at the ambient temperatures of the groundwaters and to temperatures as high as 250/degree/C, the approximate temperature maximum expected in a repository. All modeling assumed that equilibrium was achieved and treated the rock and water assemblage as a closed system. Graphite was used as a proxy mineral for organic matter in the shales. The results show that the presence of even a very small amount of reducing mineral has a large influence on the redox state of the groundwaters, and that either pyrite or graphite provides essentially the same results, with slight differences in dissolved C, Fe and S concentrations. The thermodynamic data base is inadequate at the present time to fully evaluate the speciation of dissolved carbon, due to the paucity of thermodynamic data for organic compounds. In the illitic cases the groundwaters resulting from interaction at elevated temperatures are acid, while the smectitic cases remain alkaline, although the final equilibrium mineral assemblages are quite similar. 10 refs., 8 figs., 15 tabs

Modelling of carcinogenic effects resulting from the combined action of radon and smoking

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ryabova, S.V.; Petin, V.G. [Medical Radiological Research Centre, Obninsk (Russian Federation)

2002-03-01

A simple mathematical model designed for the description of cell survival [1] and later developed for the evaluation of mutagenic effects [2] was proposed for the optimisation of the determination and prognosis of levels of carcinogenic effects in organisms, resulting from the combined action of different agents. The model postulates that the occurrence of synergism is to be expected as a result of additional carcinogenic damage arising from the interaction of sublesions induced by the two agents under investigation. These molecular sublesions are suggested to be non-carcinogenic, if each agent is taken separately. The main conclusion pertaining to this model is the existence of the highest level of synergistic effect. The model predicts the input values and conditions under which this level is reached. The synergistic effect appeared to decline with any deviation from the optimal value for the ratio of carcinogenic effects produced by each agent alone. These conclusions were verified by comparison with experimental data published by other researchers. (orig.)

Flying Training Capacity Model: Initial Results

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Lynch, Susan

2005-01-01

OBJECTIVE: (1) Determine the flying training capacity for 6 bases: * Sheppard AFB * Randolph AFB * Moody AFB * Columbus AFB * Laughlin AFB * Vance AFB * (2) Develop versatile flying training capacity simulation model for AETC...

Modeling regeneration responses of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) to abiotic conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Lauenroth, William K.; Bradford, John B.

2014-01-01

Ecosystems dominated by big sagebrush, Artemisia tridentata Nuttall (Asteraceae), which are the most widespread ecosystems in semiarid western North America, have been affected by land use practices and invasive species. Loss of big sagebrush and the decline of associated species, such as greater sage-grouse, are a concern to land managers and conservationists. However, big sagebrush regeneration remains difficult to achieve by restoration and reclamation efforts and there is no regeneration simulation model available. We present here the first process-based, daily time-step, simulation model to predict yearly big sagebrush regeneration including relevant germination and seedling responses to abiotic factors. We estimated values, uncertainty, and importance of 27 model parameters using a total of 1435 site-years of observation. Our model explained 74% of variability of number of years with successful regeneration at 46 sites. It also achieved 60% overall accuracy predicting yearly regeneration success/failure. Our results identify specific future research needed to improve our understanding of big sagebrush regeneration, including data at the subspecies level and improved parameter estimates for start of seed dispersal, modified wet thermal-time model of germination, and soil water potential influences. We found that relationships between big sagebrush regeneration and climate conditions were site specific, varying across the distribution of big sagebrush. This indicates that statistical models based on climate are unsuitable for understanding range-wide regeneration patterns or for assessing the potential consequences of changing climate on sagebrush regeneration and underscores the value of this process-based model. We used our model to predict potential regeneration across the range of sagebrush ecosystems in the western United States, which confirmed that seedling survival is a limiting factor, whereas germination is not. Our results also suggested that modeled

Evaluation of genetically inactivated alpha toxin for protection in multiple mouse models of Staphylococcus aureus infection.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rebecca A Brady

Full Text Available Staphylococcus aureus is a major human pathogen and a leading cause of nosocomial and community-acquired infections. Development of a vaccine against this pathogen is an important goal. While S. aureus protective antigens have been identified in the literature, the majority have only been tested in a single animal model of disease. We wished to evaluate the ability of one S. aureus vaccine antigen to protect in multiple mouse models, thus assessing whether protection in one model translates to protection in other models encompassing the full breadth of infections the pathogen can cause. We chose to focus on genetically inactivated alpha toxin mutant HlaH35L. We evaluated the protection afforded by this antigen in three models of infection using the same vaccine dose, regimen, route of immunization, adjuvant, and challenge strain. When mice were immunized with HlaH35L and challenged via a skin and soft tissue infection model, HlaH35L immunization led to a less severe infection and decreased S. aureus levels at the challenge site when compared to controls. Challenge of HlaH35L-immunized mice using a systemic infection model resulted in a limited, but statistically significant decrease in bacterial colonization as compared to that observed with control mice. In contrast, in a prosthetic implant model of chronic biofilm infection, there was no significant difference in bacterial levels when compared to controls. These results demonstrate that vaccines may confer protection against one form of S. aureus disease without conferring protection against other disease presentations and thus underscore a significant challenge in S. aureus vaccine development.

INTRAVAL Finnsjoen Test - modelling results for some tracer experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jakob, A.; Hadermann, J.

1994-09-01

This report presents the results within Phase II of the INTRAVAL study. Migration experiments performed at the Finnsjoen test site were investigated. The study was done to gain an improved understanding of not only the mechanisms of tracer transport, but also the accuracy and limitations of the model used. The model is based on the concept of a dual porosity medium, taking into account one dimensional advection, longitudinal dispersion, sorption onto the fracture surfaces, diffusion into connected pores of the matrix rock, and sorption onto matrix surfaces. The number of independent water carrying zones, represented either as planar fractures or tubelike veins, may be greater than one, and the sorption processes are described either by linear or non-linear Freundlich isotherms assuming instantaneous sorption equilibrium. The diffusion of the tracer out of the water-carrying zones into connected pore space of the adjacent rock is calculated perpendicular to the direction of the advective/dispersive flow. In the analysis, the fluid flow parameters are calibrated by the measured breakthrough curves for the conservative tracer (iodide). Subsequent fits to the experimental data for the two sorbing tracers strontium and cesium then involve element dependent parameters providing information on the sorption processes and on its representation in the model. The methodology of fixing all parameters except those for sorption with breakthrough curves for non-sorbing tracers generally worked well. The investigation clearly demonstrates the necessity of taking into account pump flow rate variations at both boundaries. If this is not done, reliable conclusions on transport mechanisms or geometrical factors can not be achieved. A two flow path model reproduces the measured data much better than a single flow path concept. (author) figs., tabs., 26 refs

Exact results for survival probability in the multistate Landau-Zener model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Volkov, M V; Ostrovsky, V N

2004-01-01

An exact formula is derived for survival probability in the multistate Landau-Zener model in the special case where the initially populated state corresponds to the extremal (maximum or minimum) slope of a linear diabatic potential curve. The formula was originally guessed by S Brundobler and V Elzer (1993 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 26 1211) based on numerical calculations. It is a simple generalization of the expression for the probability of diabatic passage in the famous two-state Landau-Zener model. Our result is obtained via analysis and summation of the entire perturbation theory series

Immersive visualization of dynamic CFD model results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Comparato, J.R.; Ringel, K.L.; Heath, D.J.

2004-01-01

With immersive visualization the engineer has the means for vividly understanding problem causes and discovering opportunities to improve design. Software can generate an interactive world in which collaborators experience the results of complex mathematical simulations such as computational fluid dynamic (CFD) modeling. Such software, while providing unique benefits over traditional visualization techniques, presents special development challenges. The visualization of large quantities of data interactively requires both significant computational power and shrewd data management. On the computational front, commodity hardware is outperforming large workstations in graphical quality and frame rates. Also, 64-bit commodity computing shows promise in enabling interactive visualization of large datasets. Initial interactive transient visualization methods and examples are presented, as well as development trends in commodity hardware and clustering. Interactive, immersive visualization relies on relevant data being stored in active memory for fast response to user requests. For large or transient datasets, data management becomes a key issue. Techniques for dynamic data loading and data reduction are presented as means to increase visualization performance. (author)

The t-J model at small t/j: Numerical, perturbative, and supersymmetric results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnes, T.; Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN

1991-02-01

We discuss some recent results for one- and two-hole states in the t-J model at small t/J. These include numerical results (bandwidth determinations and accurate t/J values for 4 x 4 lattice one-hole ground-state level crossings), hopping-parameter perturbation theory (which gives the small-t/J one-hole bandwidth in terms of the static-vacancy ground state), and results at the supersymmetric point t/J = 1/2 (exact results for energies and bandwidths.) The perturbative results leads us to a new conjecture regarding the staggered magnetization of higher-spin states in the two-dimensional Heisenberg model. We also discuss extrapolation of small-t/J results to high-T c parameter values; in the two-hole ground states we find (t/J) λ behavior in the rms hole-hole separation, and an extrapolation to t/J = 3 gives a bulk-limit rms hole-hole separation of ∼ 7 angstrom. 18 refs., 6 figs

Evolution in performance assessment modeling as a result of regulatory review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rowat, J.H.; Dolinar, G.M.; Stephens, M.E. [AECL Chalk River Labs., Ontario (Canada)] [and others

1995-12-31

AECL is planning to build the IRUS (Intrusion Resistant Underground Structure) facility for near-surface disposal of LLRW. The PSAR (preliminary safety assessment report) was subject to an initial regulatory review during mid-1992. The regulatory authority provided comments on many aspects of the safety assessment documentation including a number of questions on specific PA (Performance Assessment) modelling assumptions. As a result of these comments as well as a separate detailed review of the IRUS disposal concept, changes were made to the conceptual and mathematical models. The original disposal concept included a non-sorbing vault backfill, with a strong reliance on the wasteform as a barrier. This concept was altered to decrease reliance on the wasteform by replacing the original backfill with a sand/clinoptilolite mix, which is a better sorber of metal cations. This change lead to changes in the PA models which in turn altered the safety case for the facility. This, and other changes that impacted performance assessment modelling are the subject of this paper.

Hawaii Solar Integration Study: Solar Modeling Developments and Study Results; Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Orwig, K.; Corbus, D.; Piwko, R.; Schuerger, M.; Matsuura, M.; Roose, L.

2012-12-01

The Hawaii Solar Integration Study (HSIS) is a follow-up to the Oahu Wind Integration and Transmission Study completed in 2010. HSIS focuses on the impacts of higher penetrations of solar energy on the electrical grid and on other generation. HSIS goes beyond the island of Oahu and investigates Maui as well. The study examines reserve strategies, impacts on thermal unit commitment and dispatch, utilization of energy storage, renewable energy curtailment, and other aspects of grid reliability and operation. For the study, high-frequency (2-second) solar power profiles were generated using a new combined Numerical Weather Prediction model/ stochastic-kinematic cloud model approach, which represents the 'sharp-edge' effects of clouds passing over solar facilities. As part of the validation process, the solar data was evaluated using a variety of analysis techniques including wavelets, power spectral densities, ramp distributions, extreme values, and cross correlations. This paper provides an overview of the study objectives, results of the solar profile validation, and study results.

Insight into collision zone dynamics from topography: numerical modelling results and observations

OpenAIRE

A. D. Bottrill; J. van Hunen; M. B. Allen

2012-01-01

Dynamic models of subduction and continental collision are used to predict dynamic topography changes on the overriding plate. The modelling results show a distinct evolution of topography on the overriding plate, during subduction, continental collision and slab break-off. A prominent topographic feature is a temporary (few Myrs) deepening in the area of the back arc-basin after initial collision. This collisional mantle dynamic basin (CMDB) is caused by slab steepening drawing material away...

Extending positive CLASS results across multiple instructors and multiple classes of Modeling Instruction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric Brewe

2013-10-01

Full Text Available We report on a multiyear study of student attitudes measured with the Colorado Learning Attitudes about Science Survey in calculus-based introductory physics taught with the Modeling Instruction curriculum. We find that five of six instructors and eight of nine sections using Modeling Instruction showed significantly improved attitudes from pre- to postcourse. Cohen’s d effect sizes range from 0.08 to 0.95 for individual instructors. The average effect was d=0.45, with a 95% confidence interval of (0.26–0.64. These results build on previously published results showing positive shifts in attitudes from Modeling Instruction classes. We interpret these data in light of other published positive attitudinal shifts and explore mechanistic explanations for similarities and differences with other published positive shifts.

Results of an interactively coupled atmospheric chemistry - general circulation model. Comparison with observations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hein, R.; Dameris, M.; Schnadt, C. [and others

2000-01-01

An interactively coupled climate-chemistry model which enables a simultaneous treatment of meteorology and atmospheric chemistry and their feedbacks is presented. This is the first model, which interactively combines a general circulation model based on primitive equations with a rather complex model of stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry, and which is computational efficient enough to allow long-term integrations with currently available computer resources. The applied model version extends from the Earth's surface up to 10 hPa with a relatively high number (39) of vertical levels. We present the results of a present-day (1990) simulation and compare it to available observations. We focus on stratospheric dynamics and chemistry relevant to describe the stratospheric ozone layer. The current model version ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM can realistically reproduce stratospheric dynamics in the Arctic vortex region, including stratospheric warming events. This constitutes a major improvement compared to formerly applied model versions. However, apparent shortcomings in Antarctic circulation and temperatures persist. The seasonal and interannual variability of the ozone layer is simulated in accordance with observations. Activation and deactivation of chlorine in the polar stratospheric vortices and their interhemispheric differences are reproduced. The consideration of the chemistry feedback on dynamics results in an improved representation of the spatial distribution of stratospheric water vapor concentrations, i.e., the simulated meriodional water vapor gradient in the stratosphere is realistic. The present model version constitutes a powerful tool to investigate, for instance, the combined direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic trace gas emissions, and the future evolution of the ozone layer. (orig.)

Oil Spill Detection and Modelling: Preliminary Results for the Cercal Accident

Science.gov (United States)

da Costa, R. T.; Azevedo, A.; da Silva, J. C. B.; Oliveira, A.

2013-03-01

Oil spill research has significantly increased mainly as a result of the severe consequences experienced from industry accidents. Oil spill models are currently able to simulate the processes that determine the fate of oil slicks, playing an important role in disaster prevention, control and mitigation, generating valuable information for decision makers and the population in general. On the other hand, satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery has demonstrated significant potential in accidental oil spill detection, when they are accurately differentiated from look-alikes. The combination of both tools can lead to breakthroughs, particularly in the development of Early Warning Systems (EWS). This paper presents a hindcast simulation of the oil slick resulting from the Motor Tanker (MT) Cercal oil spill, listed by the Portuguese Navy as one of the major oil spills in the Portuguese Atlantic Coast. The accident took place nearby Leix˜oes Harbour, North of the Douro River, Porto (Portugal) on the 2nd of October 1994. The oil slick was segmented from available European Remote Sensing (ERS) satellite SAR images, using an algorithm based on a simplified version of the K-means clustering formulation. The image-acquired information, added to the initial conditions and forcings, provided the necessary inputs for the oil spill model. Simulations were made considering the tri-dimensional hydrodynamics in a crossscale domain, from the interior of the Douro River Estuary to the open-ocean on the Iberian Atlantic shelf. Atmospheric forcings (from ECMWF - the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA - the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), river forcings (from SNIRH - the Portuguese National Information System of the Hydric Resources) and tidal forcings (from LNEC - the National Laboratory for Civil Engineering), including baroclinic gradients (NOAA), were considered. The lack of data for validation purposes only allowed the use of the

Utilization of Mental Health Services and Mental Health Status Among Children Placed in Out-of-Home Care: A Parallel Process Latent Growth Modeling Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Yampolskaya, Svetlana; Sharrock, Patty J; Clark, Colleen; Hanson, Ardis

2017-10-01

This longitudinal study examined the parallel trajectories of mental health service use and mental health status among children placed in Florida out-of-home care. The results of growth curve modeling suggested that children with greater mental health problems initially received more mental health services. Initial child mental health status, however, had no effect on subsequent service provision when all outpatient mental health services were included. When specific types of mental health services, such as basic outpatient, targeted case management, and intensive mental health services were examined, results suggested that children with compromised functioning during the baseline period received more intensive mental health services over time. However, this increased provision of intensive mental health services did not improve mental health status, rather it was significantly associated with progressively worse mental health functioning. These findings underscore the need for regular comprehensive mental health assessments focusing on specific needs of the child.

Results of the ITER toroidal field model coil project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salpietro, E.; Maix, R.

2001-01-01

In the scope of the ITER EDA one of the seven largest projects was devoted to the development, manufacture and testing of a Toroidal Field Model Coil (TFMC). The industry consortium AGAN manufactured the TFMC based on on a conceptual design developed by the ITER EDA EU Home Team. The TFMC was completed and assembled in the test facility TOSKA of the Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe in the first half of 2001. The first testing phase started in June 2001 and lasted till October 2001. The first results have shown that the main goals of the project have been achieved

Turbulence modeling with fractional derivatives: Derivation from first principles and initial results

Science.gov (United States)

Epps, Brenden; Cushman-Roisin, Benoit

2017-11-01

Fluid turbulence is an outstanding unsolved problem in classical physics, despite 120+ years of sustained effort. Given this history, we assert that a new mathematical framework is needed to make a transformative breakthrough. This talk offers one such framework, based upon kinetic theory tied to the statistics of turbulent transport. Starting from the Boltzmann equation and ``Lévy α-stable distributions'', we derive a turbulence model that expresses the turbulent stresses in the form of a fractional derivative, where the fractional order is tied to the transport behavior of the flow. Initial results are presented herein, for the cases of Couette-Poiseuille flow and 2D boundary layers. Among other results, our model is able to reproduce the logarithmic Law of the Wall in shear turbulence.

Football fever: self-affirmation model for goal distributions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Janke

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The outcome of football games, as well as matches of most other popular team sports, depends on a combination of the skills of players and coaches and a number of external factors which, due to their complex nature, are presumably best viewed as random. Such parameters include the unpredictabilities of playing the ball, the players' shape of the day or environmental conditions such as the weather and the behavior of the audience. Under such circumstances, it appears worthwhile to analyze football score data with the toolbox of mathematical statistics in order to separate deterministic from stochastic effects and see what impact the cooperative and social nature of the "agents" of the system has on the resulting stochastic observables. Considering the probability distributions of scored goals for the home and away teams, it turns out that especially the tails of the distributions are not well described by the Poissonian or binomial model resulting from the assumption of uncorrelated random events. On the contrary, some more specific probability densities such as those discussed in the context of extreme-value statistics or the so-called negative binomial distribution fit these data rather well. There seemed to be no good argument to date, however, why the simplest Poissonian model fails and, instead, the latter distributions should be observed. To fill this gap, we introduced a number of microscopic models for the scoring behavior, resulting in a Bernoulli random process with a simple component of self-affirmation. These models allow us to represent the observed probability distributions surprisingly well, and the phenomenological distributions used earlier can be understood as special cases within this framework. We analyzed historical football score data from many leagues in Europe as well as from international tournaments, including data from all past tournaments of the "FIFA World Cup" series, and found the proposed models to be applicable in

Dermal uptake of phthalates from clothing: comparison of model to human participant results

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morrison, Glenn; Weschler, Charles J.; Bekö, Gabriel

2016-01-01

In this research, we extend a model of transdermal uptake of phthalates to include a layer of clothing. When compared with experimental results, this model better estimates dermal uptake of diethylphthalate (DEP) and di-n-butylphthalate (DnBP) than a previous model. It also demonstrates that uptake...... is sensitive to both the gap between skin and clothing and the time clothing is allowed to adsorb phthalates. The model predictions are consistent with the observation that exposed clothing increases dermal uptake when compared with uptake observed in bare-skin participants. Extension of this model beyond...... the cotton-phthalate system will be challenging until data on partition coefficients are quantified for other combinations of SVOCs, fabric materials and environmental conditions....

Exploring the uncertainties of early detection results: model-based interpretation of mayo lung project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Berman Barbara

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Mayo Lung Project (MLP, a randomized controlled clinical trial of lung cancer screening conducted between 1971 and 1986 among male smokers aged 45 or above, demonstrated an increase in lung cancer survival since the time of diagnosis, but no reduction in lung cancer mortality. Whether this result necessarily indicates a lack of mortality benefit for screening remains controversial. A number of hypotheses have been proposed to explain the observed outcome, including over-diagnosis, screening sensitivity, and population heterogeneity (initial difference in lung cancer risks between the two trial arms. This study is intended to provide model-based testing for some of these important arguments. Method Using a micro-simulation model, the MISCAN-lung model, we explore the possible influence of screening sensitivity, systematic error, over-diagnosis and population heterogeneity. Results Calibrating screening sensitivity, systematic error, or over-diagnosis does not noticeably improve the fit of the model, whereas calibrating population heterogeneity helps the model predict lung cancer incidence better. Conclusions Our conclusion is that the hypothesized imperfection in screening sensitivity, systematic error, and over-diagnosis do not in themselves explain the observed trial results. Model fit improvement achieved by accounting for population heterogeneity suggests a higher risk of cancer incidence in the intervention group as compared with the control group.

Modeling individual differences in randomized experiments using growth models: Recommendations for design, statistical analysis and reporting of results of internet interventions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hugo Hesser

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Growth models (also known as linear mixed effects models, multilevel models, and random coefficients models have the capability of studying change at the group as well as the individual level. In addition, these methods have documented advantages over traditional data analytic approaches in the analysis of repeated-measures data. These advantages include, but are not limited to, the ability to incorporate time-varying predictors, handle dependence among repeated observations in a very flexible manner, and to provide accurate estimates with missing data under fairly unrestrictive missing data assumptions. The flexibility of the growth curve modeling approach to the analysis of change makes it the preferred choice in the evaluation of direct, indirect and moderated intervention effects. Although offering many benefits, growth models present challenges in terms of design, analysis and reporting of results. This paper provides a nontechnical overview of growth models in the analysis of change in randomized experiments and advocates for their use in the field of internet interventions. Practical recommendations for design, analysis and reporting of results from growth models are provided.

Sensitivity analysis for thermo-hydraulics model of a Westinghouse type PWR. Verification of the simulation results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Farahani, Aref Zarnooshe [Islamic Azad Univ., Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, Science and Research Branch; Yousefpour, Faramarz [Nuclear Science and Technology Research Institute, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen [Islamic Azad Univ., Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Dept. of Basic Sciences; Islamic Azad Univ., Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Young Researchers and Elite Club

2017-07-15

Development of a steady-state model is the first step in nuclear safety analysis. The developed model should be qualitatively analyzed first, then a sensitivity analysis is required on the number of nodes for models of different systems to ensure the reliability of the obtained results. This contribution aims to show through sensitivity analysis, the independence of modeling results to the number of nodes in a qualified MELCOR model for a Westinghouse type pressurized power plant. For this purpose, and to minimize user error, the nuclear analysis software, SNAP, is employed. Different sensitivity cases were developed by modification of the existing model and refinement of the nodes for the simulated systems including steam generators, reactor coolant system and also reactor core and its connecting flow paths. By comparing the obtained results to those of the original model no significant difference is observed which is indicative of the model independence to the finer nodes.

Putting it all behind: long-term psychological impact of an inconclusive DNA test result for breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

van Dijk, Sandra; Otten, Wilma; Tollenaar, Rob A E M; van Asperen, Christi J; Tibben, Aad

2008-10-01

An inconclusive DNA-result for breast cancer may leave women with uncertainty that cannot be relieved. We assessed the influence of beliefs women held about their inconclusive DNA-result on psychological well-being and whether women had been able to put the period of DNA testing behind them. In total, 215 women completed a baseline and a follow-up questionnaire 2.5 till 7 years after DNA test disclosure. Within the group of 147 women who received an inconclusive result (either a personal result or the result of an affected family member) multiple regression analyses were applied to investigate the relevance of women's personal beliefs. Personal beliefs and ambivalence about an inconclusive DNA-result were associated with cancer-related worry and distress (P testing behind them, even after controlling for all measures of psychological distress (P Psychological distress measures may provide an important but incomplete picture of how women make sense of an inconclusive DNA-result. These findings underscore the importance of discussing counselees' beliefs and expectations openly to enhance well-being and adaptation on the long term.

Asteroseismic modelling of the solar-type subgiant star β Hydri

Science.gov (United States)

Brandão, I. M.; Doğan, G.; Christensen-Dalsgaard, J.; Cunha, M. S.; Bedding, T. R.; Metcalfe, T. S.; Kjeldsen, H.; Bruntt, H.; Arentoft, T.

2011-03-01

-main-sequence model with a mass of 1.04 M⊙ and a metallicity slightly lower than that of the Sun. Our results underscore the importance of having individual frequencies to constrain the properties of the stellar model.

Uncertainty in parameterisation and model structure affect simulation results in coupled ecohydrological models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Arnold

2009-10-01

Full Text Available In this paper we develop and apply a conceptual ecohydrological model to investigate the effects of model structure and parameter uncertainty on the simulation of vegetation structure and hydrological dynamics. The model is applied for a typical water limited riparian ecosystem along an ephemeral river: the middle section of the Kuiseb River in Namibia. We modelled this system by coupling an ecological model with a conceptual hydrological model. The hydrological model is storage based with stochastical forcing from the flood. The ecosystem is modelled with a population model, and represents three dominating riparian plant populations. In appreciation of uncertainty about population dynamics, we applied three model versions with increasing complexity. Population parameters were found by Latin hypercube sampling of the parameter space and with the constraint that three species should coexist as observed. Two of the three models were able to reproduce the observed coexistence. However, both models relied on different coexistence mechanisms, and reacted differently to change of long term memory in the flood forcing. The coexistence requirement strongly constrained the parameter space for both successful models. Only very few parameter sets (0.5% of 150 000 samples allowed for coexistence in a representative number of repeated simulations (at least 10 out of 100 and the success of the coexistence mechanism was controlled by the combination of population parameters. The ensemble statistics of average values of hydrologic variables like transpiration and depth to ground water were similar for both models, suggesting that they were mainly controlled by the applied hydrological model. The ensemble statistics of the fluctuations of depth to groundwater and transpiration, however, differed significantly, suggesting that they were controlled by the applied ecological model and coexistence mechanisms. Our study emphasizes that uncertainty about ecosystem

Combination of lumped hydrological and remote-sensing models to evaluate water resources in a semi-arid high altitude ungauged watershed of Sierra Nevada (Southern Spain).

Science.gov (United States)

Jódar, J; Carpintero, E; Martos-Rosillo, S; Ruiz-Constán, A; Marín-Lechado, C; Cabrera-Arrabal, J A; Navarrete-Mazariegos, E; González-Ramón, A; Lambán, L J; Herrera, C; González-Dugo, M P

2018-06-01

Assessing water resources in high mountain semi-arid zones is essential to be able to manage and plan the use of these resources downstream where they are used. However, it is not easy to manage an unknown resource, a situation that is common in the vast majority of high mountain hydrological basins. In the present work, the discharge flow in an ungauged basin is estimated using the hydrological parameters of an HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) model calibrated in a "neighboring gauged basin". The results of the hydrological simulation obtained in terms of average annual discharge are validated using the VI-ETo model. This model relates a simple hydrological balance to the discharge of the basin with the evaporation of the vegetal cover of the soil, and this to the SAVI index, which is obtained remotely by means of satellite images. The results of the modeling for both basins underscore the role of the underground discharge in the total discharge of the hydrological system. This is the result of the deglaciation process suffered by the high mountain areas of the Mediterranean arc. This process increases the infiltration capacity of the terrain, the recharge and therefore the discharge of the aquifers that make up the glacial and periglacial sediments that remain exposed on the surface as witnesses of what was the last glaciation. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Analysis of hourly crash likelihood using unbalanced panel data mixed logit model and real-time driving environmental big data.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Feng; Chen, Suren; Ma, Xiaoxiang

2018-06-01

Driving environment, including road surface conditions and traffic states, often changes over time and influences crash probability considerably. It becomes stretched for traditional crash frequency models developed in large temporal scales to capture the time-varying characteristics of these factors, which may cause substantial loss of critical driving environmental information on crash prediction. Crash prediction models with refined temporal data (hourly records) are developed to characterize the time-varying nature of these contributing factors. Unbalanced panel data mixed logit models are developed to analyze hourly crash likelihood of highway segments. The refined temporal driving environmental data, including road surface and traffic condition, obtained from the Road Weather Information System (RWIS), are incorporated into the models. Model estimation results indicate that the traffic speed, traffic volume, curvature and chemically wet road surface indicator are better modeled as random parameters. The estimation results of the mixed logit models based on unbalanced panel data show that there are a number of factors related to crash likelihood on I-25. Specifically, weekend indicator, November indicator, low speed limit and long remaining service life of rutting indicator are found to increase crash likelihood, while 5-am indicator and number of merging ramps per lane per mile are found to decrease crash likelihood. The study underscores and confirms the unique and significant impacts on crash imposed by the real-time weather, road surface, and traffic conditions. With the unbalanced panel data structure, the rich information from real-time driving environmental big data can be well incorporated. Copyright © 2018 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An electricity generation planning model incorporating demand response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Dong Gu; Thomas, Valerie M.

2012-01-01

Energy policies that aim to reduce carbon emissions and change the mix of electricity generation sources, such as carbon cap-and-trade systems and renewable electricity standards, can affect not only the source of electricity generation, but also the price of electricity and, consequently, demand. We develop an optimization model to determine the lowest cost investment and operation plan for the generating capacity of an electric power system. The model incorporates demand response to price change. In a case study for a U.S. state, we show the price, demand, and generation mix implications of a renewable electricity standard, and of a carbon cap-and-trade policy with and without initial free allocation of carbon allowances. This study shows that both the demand moderating effects and the generation mix changing effects of the policies can be the sources of carbon emissions reductions, and also shows that the share of the sources could differ with different policy designs. The case study provides different results when demand elasticity is excluded, underscoring the importance of incorporating demand response in the evaluation of electricity generation policies. - Highlights: ► We develop an electric power system optimization model including demand elasticity. ► Both renewable electricity and carbon cap-and-trade policies can moderate demand. ► Both policies affect the generation mix, price, and demand for electricity. ► Moderated demand can be a significant source of carbon emission reduction. ► For cap-and-trade policies, initial free allowances change outcomes significantly.

Energy consumption and economic growth in New Zealand: Results of trivariate and multivariate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartleet, Matthew; Gounder, Rukmani

2010-01-01

This study examines the energy consumption-growth nexus in New Zealand. Causal linkages between energy and macroeconomic variables are investigated using trivariate demand-side and multivariate production models. Long run and short run relationships are estimated for the period 1960-2004. The estimated results of demand model reveal a long run relationship between energy consumption, real GDP and energy prices. The short run results indicate that real GDP Granger-causes energy consumption without feedback, consistent with the proposition that energy demand is a derived demand. Energy prices are found to be significant for energy consumption outcomes. Production model results indicate a long run relationship between real GDP, energy consumption and employment. The Granger-causality is found from real GDP to energy consumption, providing additional evidence to support the neoclassical proposition that energy consumption in New Zealand is fundamentally driven by economic activities. Inclusion of capital in the multivariate production model shows short run causality from capital to energy consumption. Also, changes in real GDP and employment have significant predictive power for changes in real capital.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) models in drug discovery.

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Banumathi K; Feaver, Ryan E; Wamhoff, Brian R; Dash, Ajit

2018-02-01

The progressive disease spectrum of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), which includes non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), is a rapidly emerging public health crisis with no approved therapy. The diversity of various therapies under development highlights the lack of consensus around the most effective target, underscoring the need for better translatable preclinical models to study the complex progressive disease and effective therapies. Areas covered: This article reviews published literature of various mouse models of NASH used in preclinical studies, as well as complex organotypic in vitro and ex vivo liver models being developed. It discusses translational challenges associated with both kinds of models, and describes some of the studies that validate their application in NAFLD. Expert opinion: Animal models offer advantages of understanding drug distribution and effects in a whole body context, but are limited by important species differences. Human organotypic in vitro and ex vivo models with physiological relevance and translatability need to be used in a tiered manner with simpler screens. Leveraging newer technologies, like metabolomics, proteomics, and transcriptomics, and the future development of validated disease biomarkers will allow us to fully utilize the value of these models to understand disease and evaluate novel drugs in isolation or combination.

The influence of model resolution on ozone in industrial volatile organic compound plumes.

Science.gov (United States)

Henderson, Barron H; Jeffries, Harvey E; Kim, Byeong-Uk; Vizuete, William G

2010-09-01

Regions with concentrated petrochemical industrial activity (e.g., Houston or Baton Rouge) frequently experience large, localized releases of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Aircraft measurements suggest these released VOCs create plumes with ozone (O3) production rates 2-5 times higher than typical urban conditions. Modeling studies found that simulating high O3 productions requires superfine (1-km) horizontal grid cell size. Compared with fine modeling (4-kmin), the superfine resolution increases the peak O3 concentration by as much as 46%. To understand this drastic O3 change, this study quantifies model processes for O3 and "odd oxygen" (Ox) in both resolutions. For the entire plume, the superfine resolution increases the maximum O3 concentration 3% but only decreases the maximum Ox concentration 0.2%. The two grid sizes produce approximately equal Ox mass but by different reaction pathways. Derived sensitivity to oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and VOC emissions suggests resolution-specific sensitivity to NOx and VOC emissions. Different sensitivity to emissions will result in different O3 responses to subsequently encountered emissions (within the city or downwind). Sensitivity of O3 to emission changes also results in different simulated O3 responses to the same control strategies. Sensitivity of O3 to NOx and VOC emission changes is attributed to finer resolved Eulerian grid and finer resolved NOx emissions. Urban NOx concentration gradients are often caused by roadway mobile sources that would not typically be addressed with Plume-in-Grid models. This study shows that grid cell size (an artifact of modeling) influences simulated control strategies and could bias regulatory decisions. Understanding the dynamics of VOC plume dependence on grid size is the first step toward providing more detailed guidance for resolution. These results underscore VOC and NOx resolution interdependencies best addressed by finer resolution. On the basis of these results, the

Results of the first tests of the SIDRA satellite-borne instrument breadboard model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dudnik, O.V.; Kurbatov, E.V.; Avilov, A.M.; Titov, K.G.; Prieto, M; Sanchez, S.; Spassky, A.V.; Sylwester, J.; Gburek, S.; Podgorski, P.

2013-01-01

In this work, the results of the calibration of the solid-state detectors and electronic channels of the SIDRA satellite borne energetic charged particle spectrometer-telescope breadboard model are presented. The block schemes and experimental equipment used to conduct the thermal vacuum and electromagnetic compatibility tests of the assemblies and modules of the compact satellite equipment are described. The results of the measured thermal conditions of operation of the signal analog and digital processing critical modules of the SIDRA instrument prototype are discussed. Finally, the levels of conducted interference generated by the instrument model in the primary vehicle-borne power circuits are presented.

Long-term safety assessment of trench-type surface repository at Chernobyl, Ukraine - computer model and comparison with results from simplified models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haverkamp, B.; Krone, J.; Shybetskyi, I.

2013-01-01

The Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility (RWDF) Buryakovka was constructed in 1986 as part of the intervention measures after the accident at Chernobyl NPP (ChNPP). Today, the surface repository for solid low and intermediate level waste (LILW) is still being operated but its maximum capacity is nearly reached. Long-existing plans for increasing the capacity of the facility shall be implemented in the framework of the European Commission INSC Programme (Instrument for Nuclear Safety Co-operation). Within the first phase of this project, DBE Technology GmbH prepared a safety analysis report of the facility in its current state (SAR) and a preliminary safety analysis report (PSAR) for a future extended facility based on the planned enlargement. In addition to a detailed mathematical model, also simplified models have been developed to verify results of the former one and enhance confidence in the results. Comparison of the results show that - depending on the boundary conditions - simplifications like modeling the multi trench repository as one generic trench might have very limited influence on the overall results compared to the general uncertainties associated with respective long-term calculations. In addition to their value in regard to verification of more complex models which is important to increase confidence in the overall results, such simplified models can also offer the possibility to carry out time consuming calculations like probabilistic calculations or detailed sensitivity analysis in an economic manner. (authors)

[Computer optical topography: a study of the repeatability of the results of human body model examination].

Science.gov (United States)

Sarnadskiĭ, V N

2007-01-01

The problem of repeatability of the results of examination of a plastic human body model is considered. The model was examined in 7 positions using an optical topograph for kyphosis diagnosis. The examination was performed under television camera monitoring. It was shown that variation of the model position in the camera view affected the repeatability of the results of topographic examination, especially if the model-to-camera distance was changed. A study of the repeatability of the results of optical topographic examination can help to increase the reliability of the topographic method, which is widely used for medical screening of children and adolescents.

Longitudinal mathematics development of students with learning disabilities and students without disabilities: a comparison of linear, quadratic, and piecewise linear mixed effects models.

Science.gov (United States)

Kohli, Nidhi; Sullivan, Amanda L; Sadeh, Shanna; Zopluoglu, Cengiz

2015-04-01

Effective instructional planning and intervening rely heavily on accurate understanding of students' growth, but relatively few researchers have examined mathematics achievement trajectories, particularly for students with special needs. We applied linear, quadratic, and piecewise linear mixed-effects models to identify the best-fitting model for mathematics development over elementary and middle school and to ascertain differences in growth trajectories of children with learning disabilities relative to their typically developing peers. The analytic sample of 2150 students was drawn from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study - Kindergarten Cohort, a nationally representative sample of United States children who entered kindergarten in 1998. We first modeled students' mathematics growth via multiple mixed-effects models to determine the best fitting model of 9-year growth and then compared the trajectories of students with and without learning disabilities. Results indicate that the piecewise linear mixed-effects model captured best the functional form of students' mathematics trajectories. In addition, there were substantial achievement gaps between students with learning disabilities and students with no disabilities, and their trajectories differed such that students without disabilities progressed at a higher rate than their peers who had learning disabilities. The results underscore the need for further research to understand how to appropriately model students' mathematics trajectories and the need for attention to mathematics achievement gaps in policy. Copyright © 2015 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tapering of the CHESS-APS undulator: Results and modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lai, B.; Viccaro, P.J.; Dejus, R.; Gluskin, E.; Yun, W.B.; McNulty, I.; Henderson, C.; White, J.; Shen, Q.; Finkelstein, K.

1992-01-01

When the magnetic gap of an undulator is tapered along the beam direction, the slowly varying peak field B o introduces a spread in the value of the deflection parameter K. The result is a broad energy-band undulator that still maintains high degree of spatial collimation. These properties are very useful for EXAFS and energy dispersive techniques. We have characterized the CHESS-APS undulator (1 υ = 3.3cm) at one tapered configuration (10% change of the magnetic gap from one end of the undulator to the other). Spatial distribution and energy spectra of the first three harmonics through a pinhole were measured. The on-axis first harmonic width increased from 0.27 keV to 0.61 keV (FWHM) at the central energy of E 1 = 6.6 keV (K average = 0.69). Broadening in the angular distribution due to tapering was minimal. These results will be compared with computer modelling which simulates the actual electron trajectory in the tapered case

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Progress and Preliminary Results

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenzweig, C.

2011-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a distributed climate-scenario simulation exercise for historical model intercomparison and future climate change conditions with participation of multiple crop and agricultural trade modeling groups around the world. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Recent progress and the current status of AgMIP will be presented, highlighting three areas of activity: preliminary results from crop pilot studies, outcomes from regional workshops, and emerging scientific challenges. AgMIP crop modeling efforts are being led by pilot studies, which have been established for wheat, maize, rice, and sugarcane. These crop-specific initiatives have proven instrumental in testing and contributing to AgMIP protocols, as well as creating preliminary results for aggregation and input to agricultural trade models. Regional workshops are being held to encourage collaborations and set research activities in motion for key agricultural areas. The first of these workshops was hosted by Embrapa and UNICAMP and held in Campinas, Brazil. Outcomes from this meeting have informed crop modeling research activities within South America, AgMIP protocols, and future regional workshops. Several scientific challenges have emerged and are currently being addressed by AgMIP researchers. Areas of particular interest include geospatial weather generation, ensemble methods for climate scenarios and crop models, spatial aggregation of field-scale yields to regional and global production, and characterization of future changes in climate variability.

Modeling risk for child abuse and harsh parenting in families with depressed and substance-abusing parents.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelley, Michelle L; Lawrence, Hannah R; Milletich, Robert J; Hollis, Brittany F; Henson, James M

2015-05-01

Children with substance abusing parents are at considerable risk for child maltreatment. The current study applied an actor-partner interdependence model to examine how father only (n=52) and dual couple (n=33) substance use disorder, as well as their depressive symptomology influenced parents' own (actor effects) and the partner's (partner effects) overreactivity in disciplinary interactions with their children, as well as their risk for child maltreatment. Parents completed the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D; Radloff, 1977), the overreactivity subscale from the Parenting Scale (Arnold, O'Leary, Wolff, & Acker, 1993), and the Brief Child Abuse Potential Inventory (Ondersma, Chaffin, Mullins, & LeBreton, 2005). Results of multigroup structural equation models revealed that a parent's own report of depressive symptoms predicted their risk for child maltreatment in both father SUD and dual SUD couples. Similarly, a parent's report of their own depressive symptoms predicted their overreactivity in disciplinary encounters both in father SUD and dual SUD couples. In all models, partners' depressive symptoms did not predict their partner's risk for child maltreatment or overreactivity. Findings underscore the importance of a parent's own level of depressive symptoms in their risk for child maltreatment and for engaging in overreactivity during disciplinary episodes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Acoustic results of the Boeing model 360 whirl tower test

Science.gov (United States)

Watts, Michael E.; Jordan, David

1990-09-01

An evaluation is presented for whirl tower test results of the Model 360 helicopter's advanced, high-performance four-bladed composite rotor system intended to facilitate over-200-knot flight. During these performance measurements, acoustic data were acquired by seven microphones. A comparison of whirl-tower tests with theory indicate that theoretical prediction accuracies vary with both microphone position and the inclusion of ground reflection. Prediction errors varied from 0 to 40 percent of the measured signal-to-peak amplitude.

A comparison of results from groundwater flow modelling for two conceptual hydrogeological models for the Konrad site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arens, G.; Fein, E.; Storck, R.

1991-01-01

Radioactive wastes with negligible heat production are planned to be disposed of into a deep iron ore formation at the Konrad site. This repository will be bedded in a low permeable formation called Oxfordian in a depth of 800 - 1300 m below the surface. The host formation is largely covered with clay of a few hundred meters thickness. The hydrogeological model area has an extension of 14 km in the west-east and 47 km in the north-south direction. The geological formations within the model area are disturbed by several fractured zones with a vertical extension of several hundred meters intersecting different horizontal layers. Due to this fact two hydrogeological models have been developed: The first one handles the fractured zones by globally increased permeabilities of the geological formations. The second handles the fractured zones by locally increased permeabilities, leaving the permeabilities of undisturbed areas unchanged. For both models, groundwater flow calculations have been carried out including parameter variations of permeability values. The results of the calculations are presented as flow paths which are compared for both models. Computer code used: SWIFT. 1 fig., 3 tabs., 3 refs

Personality and leader effectiveness: a moderated mediation model of leadership self-efficacy, job demands, and job autonomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Ng, Kok-Yee; Ang, Soon; Chan, Kim-Yin

2008-07-01

The trait theory of leadership is advanced by a joint investigation of the mediating role of (a) leadership self-efficacy (LSE = leader's perceived capabilities to perform leader roles) in linking neuroticism, extraversion, and conscientiousness with leader effectiveness and (b) the moderating role of job demands and job autonomy in influencing the mediation. Using K. J. Preacher, D. D. Rucker, and A. F. Hayes' (2007) moderated mediation framework, the authors tested the model (over a 2-year period) with matched data from 394 military leaders and their supervisors. Results showed that LSE mediated the relationships for neuroticism, extraversion, and conscientiousness with leader effectiveness. Moderated mediation analyses further revealed that LSE mediated the relationships for (a) all 3 personality variables for only those leaders with low job demands; (b) neuroticism and conscientiousness for only those leaders with high job autonomy; and (c) extraversion, regardless of a leader's level of job autonomy. Results underscore the importance of accounting for leaders' situational contexts when examining the relationships between personality, LSE, and effectiveness.

Technogenic Rock Dumps Physical Properties' Prognosis via Results of the Structure Numerical Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Markov Sergey

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Understanding of internal structure of the technogenic rock dumps (gob dumps is required condition for estimation of using ones as filtration massifs for treatment of mine wastewater. Internal structure of gob piles greatly depends on dumping technology to applying restrictions for use them as filtration massifs. Numerical modelling of gob dumps allows adequately estimate them physical parameters, as a filtration coefficient, density, etc. The gob dumps numerical modelling results given in this article, in particular was examined grain size distribution of determined fractions depend on dump height. Shown, that filtration coefficient is in a nonlinear dependence on amount of several fractions of rock in gob dump. The numerical model adequacy both the gob structure and the dependence of filtration coefficient from gob height acknowledged equality of calculated and real filtration coefficient values. The results of this research can be apply to peripheral dumping technology.

[DESCRIPTION AND PRESENTATION OF THE RESULTS OF ELECTROENCEPHALOGRAM PROCESSING USING AN INFORMATION MODEL].

Science.gov (United States)

Myznikov, I L; Nabokov, N L; Rogovanov, D Yu; Khankevich, Yu R

2016-01-01

The paper proposes to apply the informational modeling of correlation matrix developed by I.L. Myznikov in early 1990s in neurophysiological investigations, such as electroencephalogram recording and analysis, coherence description of signals from electrodes on the head surface. The authors demonstrate information models built using the data from studies of inert gas inhalation by healthy human subjects. In the opinion of the authors, information models provide an opportunity to describe physiological processes with a high level of generalization. The procedure of presenting the EEG results holds great promise for the broad application.

Exhaustively characterizing feasible logic models of a signaling network using Answer Set Programming.

Science.gov (United States)

Guziolowski, Carito; Videla, Santiago; Eduati, Federica; Thiele, Sven; Cokelaer, Thomas; Siegel, Anne; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio

2013-09-15

Logic modeling is a useful tool to study signal transduction across multiple pathways. Logic models can be generated by training a network containing the prior knowledge to phospho-proteomics data. The training can be performed using stochastic optimization procedures, but these are unable to guarantee a global optima or to report the complete family of feasible models. This, however, is essential to provide precise insight in the mechanisms underlaying signal transduction and generate reliable predictions. We propose the use of Answer Set Programming to explore exhaustively the space of feasible logic models. Toward this end, we have developed caspo, an open-source Python package that provides a powerful platform to learn and characterize logic models by leveraging the rich modeling language and solving technologies of Answer Set Programming. We illustrate the usefulness of caspo by revisiting a model of pro-growth and inflammatory pathways in liver cells. We show that, if experimental error is taken into account, there are thousands (11 700) of models compatible with the data. Despite the large number, we can extract structural features from the models, such as links that are always (or never) present or modules that appear in a mutual exclusive fashion. To further characterize this family of models, we investigate the input-output behavior of the models. We find 91 behaviors across the 11 700 models and we suggest new experiments to discriminate among them. Our results underscore the importance of characterizing in a global and exhaustive manner the family of feasible models, with important implications for experimental design. caspo is freely available for download (license GPLv3) and as a web service at http://caspo.genouest.org/. Supplementary materials are available at Bioinformatics online. santiago.videla@irisa.fr.

Non-SUSY Beyond Standard Model Searches: Recent Results from ATLAS and CMS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malek, Fairouz

2015-01-01

The Standard Model of particle physics is a sensational success, especially since the discovery of the 125 GeV Higgs boson. However, there are still numerous unanswered questions. Why is the Higgs so light? Do the interactions couplings unify and how can gravity be included? Why three fermion generations? What is dark matter? Theories Beyond the Standard Model (BSM), such as Grand Unified Theories, Extra Dimensions or Technicolour are trying to answer these questions. In these proceedings, we will focus on the most recent results obtained by the ATLAS and CMS experiments at the LHC for BSM searches, excluding Higgs and supersymmetry searches. New results on Dark Matter, heavy narrow-width resonances, new heavy quarks and third generation leptoquarks are presented. A summary of the prospects at 14 TeV and at the High Luminosity LHC period is given. (paper)

Non-SUSY Beyond Standard Model Searches: Recent Results from ATLAS and CMS

CERN Document Server

Malek, Fairouz; The ATLAS collaboration

2015-01-01

The Standard Model of particle physics is a sensational success, especially since the discovery of the 125 GeV Higgs boson. However, there are still numerous unanswered questions. Why is the Higgs so light? Do the interactions couplings unify and how can gravity be included? Why three fermion generations? What is dark matter? Theories Beyond the Standard Model (BSM), such as Grand Unified Theories, Extra Dimensions or Technicolour are trying to answer these questions. In this proceedings, we will focus on the most recent results obtained by the ATLAS and CMS experiments at the LHC for BSM searches, excluding Higgs and supersymmetry searches. New results on Dark matter, heavy narrow bosons, new heavy quarks and third generation leptoquarks are presented. A summary of the prospects at 14 TeV and at the High Luminosity LHC period is given.

Drosophila as an In Vivo Model for Human Neurodegenerative Disease

Science.gov (United States)

McGurk, Leeanne; Berson, Amit; Bonini, Nancy M.

2015-01-01

With the increase in the ageing population, neurodegenerative disease is devastating to families and poses a huge burden on society. The brain and spinal cord are extraordinarily complex: they consist of a highly organized network of neuronal and support cells that communicate in a highly specialized manner. One approach to tackling problems of such complexity is to address the scientific questions in simpler, yet analogous, systems. The fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster, has been proven tremendously valuable as a model organism, enabling many major discoveries in neuroscientific disease research. The plethora of genetic tools available in Drosophila allows for exquisite targeted manipulation of the genome. Due to its relatively short lifespan, complex questions of brain function can be addressed more rapidly than in other model organisms, such as the mouse. Here we discuss features of the fly as a model for human neurodegenerative disease. There are many distinct fly models for a range of neurodegenerative diseases; we focus on select studies from models of polyglutamine disease and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis that illustrate the type and range of insights that can be gleaned. In discussion of these models, we underscore strengths of the fly in providing understanding into mechanisms and pathways, as a foundation for translational and therapeutic research. PMID:26447127

The use of the k - {epsilon} turbulence model within the Rossby Centre regional ocean climate model: parameterization development and results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Markus Meier, H.E. [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden). Rossby Centre

2000-09-01

As mixing plays a dominant role for the physics of an estuary like the Baltic Sea (seasonal heat storage, mixing in channels, deep water mixing), different mixing parameterizations for use in 3D Baltic Sea models are discussed and compared. For this purpose two different OGCMs of the Baltic Sea are utilized. Within the Swedish regional climate modeling program, SWECLIM, a 3D coupled ice-ocean model for the Baltic Sea has been coupled with an improved version of the two-equation k - {epsilon} turbulence model with corrected dissipation term, flux boundary conditions to include the effect of a turbulence enhanced layer due to breaking surface gravity waves and a parameterization for breaking internal waves. Results of multi-year simulations are compared with observations. The seasonal thermocline is simulated satisfactory and erosion of the halocline is avoided. Unsolved problems are discussed. To replace the controversial equation for dissipation the performance of a hierarchy of k-models has been tested and compared with the k - {epsilon} model. In addition, it is shown that the results of the mixing parameterization depend very much on the choice of the ocean model. Finally, the impact of two mixing parameterizations on Baltic Sea climate is investigated. In this case the sensitivity of mean SST, vertical temperature and salinity profiles, ice season and seasonal cycle of heat fluxes is quite large.

An analytical model for nanoparticles concentration resulting from infusion into poroelastic brain tissue.

Science.gov (United States)

Pizzichelli, G; Di Michele, F; Sinibaldi, E

2016-02-01

We consider the infusion of a diluted suspension of nanoparticles (NPs) into poroelastic brain tissue, in view of relevant biomedical applications such as intratumoral thermotherapy. Indeed, the high impact of the related pathologies motivates the development of advanced therapeutic approaches, whose design also benefits from theoretical models. This study provides an analytical expression for the time-dependent NPs concentration during the infusion into poroelastic brain tissue, which also accounts for particle binding onto cells (by recalling relevant results from the colloid filtration theory). Our model is computationally inexpensive and, compared to fully numerical approaches, permits to explicitly elucidate the role of the involved physical aspects (tissue poroelasticity, infusion parameters, NPs physico-chemical properties, NP-tissue interactions underlying binding). We also present illustrative results based on parameters taken from the literature, by considering clinically relevant ranges for the infusion parameters. Moreover, we thoroughly assess the model working assumptions besides discussing its limitations. While not laying any claims of generality, our model can be used to support the development of more ambitious numerical approaches, towards the preliminary design of novel therapies based on NPs infusion into brain tissue. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of Test-Analysis Models (TAM) for correlation of dynamic test and analysis results

Science.gov (United States)

Angelucci, Filippo; Javeed, Mehzad; Mcgowan, Paul

1992-01-01

The primary objective of structural analysis of aerospace applications is to obtain a verified finite element model (FEM). The verified FEM can be used for loads analysis, evaluate structural modifications, or design control systems. Verification of the FEM is generally obtained as the result of correlating test and FEM models. A test analysis model (TAM) is very useful in the correlation process. A TAM is essentially a FEM reduced to the size of the test model, which attempts to preserve the dynamic characteristics of the original FEM in the analysis range of interest. Numerous methods for generating TAMs have been developed in the literature. The major emphasis of this paper is a description of the procedures necessary for creation of the TAM and the correlation of the reduced models with the FEM or the test results. Herein, three methods are discussed, namely Guyan, Improved Reduced System (IRS), and Hybrid. Also included are the procedures for performing these analyses using MSC/NASTRAN. Finally, application of the TAM process is demonstrated with an experimental test configuration of a ten bay cantilevered truss structure.

Comparison of inverse modeling results with measured and interpolated hydraulic head data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacobson, E.A.

1986-12-01

Inverse modeling of aquifers involves identification of effective parameters, such as transmissivities, based on hydraulic head data. The result of inverse modeling is a calibrated ground water flow model that reproduces the measured hydraulic head data as closely as is statistically possible. An inverse method that includes prior information about the parameters (i.e., kriged log transmissivity) was applied to the Avra Valley aquifer of southern Arizona using hydraulic heads obtained in three ways: measured at well locations, estimated at nodes by hand contouring, and estimated at nodes by kriging. Hand contouring yields only estimates of hydraulic head at node points, whereas kriging yields hydraulic head estimates at node points and their corresponding estimation errors. A comparison of the three inverse applications indicates the variations in the ground water flow model caused by the different treatments of the hydraulic head data. Estimates of hydraulic head computed by all three inverse models were more representative of the measured or interpolated hydraulic heads than those computed using the kriged estimates of log transmissivity. The large-scale trends in the estimates of log transmissivity determined by the three inverse models were generally similar except in the southern portion of the study area. The hydraulic head values and gradients produced by the three inverse models were similar in the interior of the study area, while the major differences between the inverse models occurred along the boundaries. 17 refs., 18 figs., 1 tab

Experimental and modelling results of a parallel-plate based active magnetic regenerator

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tura, A.; Nielsen, Kaspar Kirstein; Rowe, A.

2012-01-01

The performance of a permanent magnet magnetic refrigerator (PMMR) using gadolinium parallel plates is described. The configuration and operating parameters are described in detail. Experimental results are compared to simulations using an established twodimensional model of an active magnetic...

PV Performance Modeling Methods and Practices: Results from the 4th PV Performance Modeling Collaborative Workshop.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stein, Joshua [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-03-01

In 2014, the IEA PVPS Task 13 added the PVPMC as a formal activity to its technical work plan for 2014-2017. The goal of this activity is to expand the reach of the PVPMC to a broader international audience and help to reduce PV performance modeling uncertainties worldwide. One of the main deliverables of this activity is to host one or more PVPMC workshops outside the US to foster more international participation within this collaborative group. This report reviews the results of the first in a series of these joint IEA PVPS Task 13/PVPMC workshops. The 4th PV Performance Modeling Collaborative Workshop was held in Cologne, Germany at the headquarters of TÜV Rheinland on October 22-23, 2015.

MSFC Stream Model Preliminary Results: Modeling Recent Leonid and Perseid Encounters

Science.gov (United States)

Cooke, William J.; Moser, Danielle E.

2004-01-01

The cometary meteoroid ejection model of Jones and Brown (1996b) was used to simulate ejection from comets 55P/Tempel-Tuttle during the last 12 revolutions, and the last 9 apparitions of 109P/Swift-Tuttle. Using cometary ephemerides generated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory s (JPL) HORIZONS Solar System Data and Ephemeris Computation Service, two independent ejection schemes were simulated. In the first case, ejection was simulated in 1 hour time steps along the comet s orbit while it was within 2.5 AU of the Sun. In the second case, ejection was simulated to occur at the hour the comet reached perihelion. A 4th order variable step-size Runge-Kutta integrator was then used to integrate meteoroid position and velocity forward in time, accounting for the effects of radiation pressure, Poynting-Robertson drag, and the gravitational forces of the planets, which were computed using JPL s DE406 planetary ephemerides. An impact parameter was computed for each particle approaching the Earth to create a flux profile, and the results compared to observations of the 1998 and 1999 Leonid showers, and the 1993 and 2004 Perseids.

Predicting ecosystem functioning from plant traits: Results from a multi-scale ecophsiological modeling approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wijk, van M.T.

2007-01-01

Ecosystem functioning is the result of processes working at a hierarchy of scales. The representation of these processes in a model that is mathematically tractable and ecologically meaningful is a big challenge. In this paper I describe an individual based model (PLACO¿PLAnt COmpetition) that

Modeling the radiation transfer of discontinuous canopies: results for gap probability and single-scattering contribution

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Feng; Zou, Kai; Shang, Hong; Ji, Zheng; Zhao, Huijie; Huang, Wenjiang; Li, Cunjun

2010-10-01

In this paper we present an analytical model for the computation of radiation transfer of discontinuous vegetation canopies. Some initial results of gap probability and bidirectional gap probability of discontinuous vegetation canopies, which are important parameters determining the radiative environment of the canopies, are given and compared with a 3- D computer simulation model. In the model, negative exponential attenuation of light within individual plant canopies is assumed. Then the computation of gap probability is resolved by determining the entry points and exiting points of the ray with the individual plants via their equations in space. For the bidirectional gap probability, which determines the single-scattering contribution of the canopy, a gap statistical analysis based model was adopted to correct the dependence of gap probabilities for both solar and viewing directions. The model incorporates the structural characteristics, such as plant sizes, leaf size, row spacing, foliage density, planting density, leaf inclination distribution. Available experimental data are inadequate for a complete validation of the model. So it was evaluated with a three dimensional computer simulation model for 3D vegetative scenes, which shows good agreement between these two models' results. This model should be useful to the quantification of light interception and the modeling of bidirectional reflectance distributions of discontinuous canopies.

Comparison of analytical models and experimental results for single-event upset in CMOS SRAMs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mnich, T.M.; Diehl, S.E.; Shafer, B.D.

1983-01-01

In an effort to design fully radiation-hardened memories for satellite and deep-space applications, a 16K and a 2K CMOS static RAM were modeled for single-particle upset during the design stage. The modeling resulted in the addition of a hardening feedback resistor in the 16K remained tentatively unaltered. Subsequent experiments, using the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratories' 88-inch cyclotron to accelerate krypton and oxygen ions, established an upset threshold for the 2K and the 16K without resistance added, as well as a hardening threshold for the 16K with feedback resistance added. Results for the 16K showed it to be hardenable to the higher level than previously published data for other unhardened 16K RAMs. The data agreed fairly well with the modeling results; however, a close look suggests that modification of the simulation methodology is required to accurately predict the resistance necessary to harden the RAM cell

Mercury Studies around the Mediterranean Sea Basin: Ten years of Measurements and Modeling results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sprovieri F.

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Only a few years ago the presence of Reactive Gaseous Mercury (RGM was believed to be almost exclusively the result of anthropogenic emissions and that sustained high RGM concentrations in the MBL were not considered likely. During the past ten years, an in-depth investigation was carried out in the Marine Boundary Layer (MBL of the Mediterranean Sea to quantify and possibly explain spatial and temporal patterns of Hg-species concentrations. This paper provides an overview of modeling results and atmospheric measurements performed during several cruise campaigns performed aboard the Research Vessel (RV URANIA of the CNR over the Mediterranean sea basin. RGM concentrations have been modelled using a photochemical box model of the MBL and compared to measured data obtained during the research cruises. The comparison results supports the hypothesis that there are daytime mercury oxidation reactions occurring which have not yet been identified. Major findings of key studies carried out during ten years of ship-borne activities have been highlighted.

Comparison of simulation and experimental results for a model aqueous tert-butanol solution

Science.gov (United States)

Overduin, S. D.; Patey, G. N.

2017-07-01

Molecular dynamics simulations are used to investigate the behavior of aqueous tert-butanol (TBA) solutions for a range of temperatures, using the CHARMM generalized force field (CGenFF) to model TBA and the TIP4P/2005 or TIP4P-Ew water model. Simulation results for the density, isothermal compressibility, constant pressure heat capacity, and self-diffusion coefficients are in good accord with experimental measurements. Agreement with the experiment is particularly good at low TBA concentration, where experiments have revealed anomalies in a number of thermodynamic properties. Importantly, the CGenFF model does not exhibit liquid-liquid demixing at temperatures between 290 and 320 K (for systems of 32 000 molecules), in contrast with the situation for several other common TBA models [R. Gupta and G. N. Patey, J. Chem. Phys. 137, 034509 (2012)]. However, whereas real water and TBA are miscible at all temperatures where the liquid is stable, we observe some evidence of demixing at 340 K and above. To evaluate the structural properties at low concentrations, we compare with both neutron scattering and recent spectroscopic measurements. This reveals that while the CGenFF model is a definite improvement over other models that have been considered, the TBA molecules still exhibit a tendency to associate at low concentrations that is somewhat stronger than that indicated by experiments. Finally, we discuss the range and decay times of the long-range correlations, providing an indication of the system size and simulation times that are necessary in order to obtain reliable results for certain properties.

The impact of air traffic in the NAFC. Model results and measurements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wauben, W M.F.; Velthoven, P F.J. van; Kelder, H M [Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Inst., De Bilt (Netherlands)

1998-12-31

The impact of aircraft emissions on the atmospheric composition has been investigated with a global chemistry transport model. The model calculations show that aircraft emissions of nitrogen oxides contribute to about 40-80% of the background values of nitrogen oxides in the North Atlantic Flight Corridor (NAFC), and lead to an increase of the background ozone concentrations by about 3-4% in winter and 5-7% in summer. The three-dimensional distributions of ozone, nitrogen oxides and nitric acid, calculated by using analysed meteorological data, have been compared with airborne measurements performed in the North Atlantic Flight Corridor as part of the EC POLINAT project. The agreement between modelled results and observations is reasonably good for ozone, but worse for nitrogen oxides and nitric acid. (author) 12 refs.

The impact of air traffic in the NAFC. Model results and measurements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wauben, W.M.F.; Velthoven, P.F.J. van; Kelder, H.M. [Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Inst., De Bilt (Netherlands)

1997-12-31

The impact of aircraft emissions on the atmospheric composition has been investigated with a global chemistry transport model. The model calculations show that aircraft emissions of nitrogen oxides contribute to about 40-80% of the background values of nitrogen oxides in the North Atlantic Flight Corridor (NAFC), and lead to an increase of the background ozone concentrations by about 3-4% in winter and 5-7% in summer. The three-dimensional distributions of ozone, nitrogen oxides and nitric acid, calculated by using analysed meteorological data, have been compared with airborne measurements performed in the North Atlantic Flight Corridor as part of the EC POLINAT project. The agreement between modelled results and observations is reasonably good for ozone, but worse for nitrogen oxides and nitric acid. (author) 12 refs.

Results on Standard Model Higgs Boson searches at high mass at the LHC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Yanyan

2014-01-01

We present results from searches for the standard model Higgs boson with a mass greater than 200 GeV in pp collisions at √(s)=7 TeV. The data are collected at the LHC with both ATLAS and CMS detectors, and correspond to integrated luminosity of 5 fb -1 each. Searches are performed in the 2 main decay modes WW and ZZ. No significant excess of events above the standard model background expectations is observed, and upper limits on the Higgs boson production relative to the standard model expectation are derived. A standard model Higgs boson is excluded in the mass range up to 539 GeV or 600 GeV at 95% confidence level by the ATLAS or CMS experiments respectively. (author)

An analytical model for backscattered luminance in fog: comparisons with Monte Carlo computations and experimental results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taillade, Frédéric; Dumont, Eric; Belin, Etienne

2008-01-01

We propose an analytical model for backscattered luminance in fog and derive an expression for the visibility signal-to-noise ratio as a function of meteorological visibility distance. The model uses single scattering processes. It is based on the Mie theory and the geometry of the optical device (emitter and receiver). In particular, we present an overlap function and take the phase function of fog into account. The results of the backscattered luminance obtained with our analytical model are compared to simulations made using the Monte Carlo method based on multiple scattering processes. An excellent agreement is found in that the discrepancy between the results is smaller than the Monte Carlo standard uncertainties. If we take no account of the geometry of the optical device, the results of the model-estimated backscattered luminance differ from the simulations by a factor 20. We also conclude that the signal-to-noise ratio computed with the Monte Carlo method and our analytical model is in good agreement with experimental results since the mean difference between the calculations and experimental measurements is smaller than the experimental uncertainty

Predicting the distribution of the Asian tapir in Peninsular Malaysia using maximum entropy modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Clements, Gopalasamy Reuben; Rayan, D Mark; Aziz, Sheema Abdul; Kawanishi, Kae; Traeholt, Carl; Magintan, David; Yazi, Muhammad Fadlli Abdul; Tingley, Reid

2012-12-01

In 2008, the IUCN threat status of the Asian tapir (Tapirus indicus) was reclassified from 'vulnerable' to 'endangered'. The latest distribution map from the IUCN Red List suggests that the tapirs' native range is becoming increasingly fragmented in Peninsular Malaysia, but distribution data collected by local researchers suggest a more extensive geographical range. Here, we compile a database of 1261 tapir occurrence records within Peninsular Malaysia, and demonstrate that this species, indeed, has a much broader geographical range than the IUCN range map suggests. However, extreme spatial and temporal bias in these records limits their utility for conservation planning. Therefore, we used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling to elucidate the potential extent of the Asian tapir's occurrence in Peninsular Malaysia while accounting for bias in existing distribution data. Our MaxEnt model predicted that the Asian tapir has a wider geographic range than our fine-scale data and the IUCN range map both suggest. Approximately 37% of Peninsular Malaysia contains potentially suitable tapir habitats. Our results justify a revision to the Asian tapir's extent of occurrence in the IUCN Red List. Furthermore, our modeling demonstrated that selectively logged forests encompass 45% of potentially suitable tapir habitats, underscoring the importance of these habitats for the conservation of this species in Peninsular Malaysia. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

Graphical interpretation of numerical model results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Drewes, D.R.

1979-01-01

Computer software has been developed to produce high quality graphical displays of data from a numerical grid model. The code uses an existing graphical display package (DISSPLA) and overcomes some of the problems of both line-printer output and traditional graphics. The software has been designed to be flexible enough to handle arbitrarily placed computation grids and a variety of display requirements

Practical models to estimate horizontal irradiance in clear sky conditions: Preliminary results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salazar, German A.; Hernandez, Alejandro L.; Saravia, Luis R. [Department of Physics, School of Exact Sciences, National University of Salta, Bolivia Avenue 5150, 4400 Salta Capital (Argentina); INENCO (Institute of Non Conventional Energy Research), Bolivia Avenue 5150, 4400 Salta Capital (Argentina)

2010-11-15

The Argentinean Northwest (ANW) is a high altitude region located alongside Los Andes Mountains. The ANW is also one of the most insolated regions in the world due to its altitude and particular climate. However, the characterization of the solar resource in the region is incomplete as there are no stations to measure solar radiation continuously and methodically. With irradiance data recently having been measured at three sites in the Salta Province, a study was carried out that resulted in a practical model to quickly and efficiently estimate the horizontal irradiance in high altitude sites in clear sky conditions. This model uses the altitude above sea level (A) as a variable and generates a representative clearness index as a result (k{sub t-R}) that is calculated for each site studied. This index k{sub t-R} is then used with the relative optical air mass and the extraterrestrial irradiance to estimate the instantaneous clearness index (k{sub t}). Subsequently, the index k{sub t-R} is corrected by introducing the atmospheric pressure in the definition of relative optical air mass proposed by Kasten. The results are satisfactory as errors in the irradiance estimations with respect to measured values do not exceed 5% for pressure corrected air masses AM{sub c} < 2. This model will be used in a feasibility study to locate sites for the installation of solar thermal power plants in the ANW. A prototype of a CLFR solar power plant is being built in the INENCO Campus, at the National University of Salta. (author)

Gamma spectroscopy modelization intercomparison of the modelization results using two different codes (MCNP, and Pascalys-mercure)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luneville, L.; Chiron, M.; Toubon, H.; Dogny, S.; Huver, M.; Berger, L.

2001-01-01

The research performed in common these last 3 years by the French Atomic Commission CEA, COGEMA and Eurisys Mesures had for main subject the realization of a complete tool of modelization for the largest range of realistic cases, the Pascalys modelization software. The main purpose of the modelization was to calculate the global measurement efficiency, which delivers the most accurate relationship between the photons emitted by the nuclear source in volume, punctual or deposited form and the germanium hyper pure detector, which detects and analyzes the received photons. It has been stated since long time that experimental global measurement efficiency becomes more and more difficult to address especially for complex scene as we can find in decommissioning and dismantling or in case of high activities for which the use of high activity reference sources become difficult to use for both health physics point of view and regulations. The choice of a calculation code is fundamental if accurate modelization is searched. MCNP represents the reference code but its use is long time calculation consuming and then not practicable in line on the field. Direct line-of-sight point kernel code as the French Atomic Commission 3-D analysis Mercure code can represent the practicable compromise between the most accurate MCNP reference code and the realistic performances needed in modelization. The comparison between the results of Pascalys-Mercure and MCNP code taking in account the last improvements of Mercure in the low energy range where the most important errors can occur, is presented in this paper, Mercure code being supported in line by the recent Pascalys 3-D modelization scene software. The incidence of the intrinsic efficiency of the Germanium detector is also approached for the total efficiency of measurement. (authors)

Modelling weather effects for impact analysis of residential time-of-use electricity pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, Reid; Golab, Lukasz; Rosenberg, Catherine

2017-01-01

Analyzing the impact of pricing policies such as time-of-use (TOU) is challenging in the presence of confounding factors such as weather. Motivated by a lack of consensus and model selection details in prior work, we present a methodology for modelling the effect of weather on residential electricity demand. The best model is selected according to explanatory power, out-of-sample prediction accuracy, goodness of fit and interpretability. We then evaluate the effect of mandatory TOU pricing in a local distribution company in southwestern Ontario, Canada. We use a smart meter dataset of over 20,000 households which is particularly suited to our analysis: it contains data from the summer before and after the implementation of TOU pricing in November 2011, and all customers transitioned from tiered rates to TOU rates at the same time. We find that during the summer rate season, TOU pricing results in electricity conservation across all price periods. The average demand change during on-peak and mid-peak periods is −2.6% and −2.4% respectively. Changes during off-peak periods are not statistically significant. These TOU pricing effects are less pronounced compared to previous studies, underscoring the need for clear, reproducible impact analyses which include full details about the model selection process. - Highlights: • We study models for the effect of weather on residential electricity demand. • We evaluate the effect of mandatory TOU pricing in a local distribution company in Ontario, Canada. • We find the effect of TOU pricing to be less pronounced compared to previous studies.

Spinal cord stimulation: modeling results and clinical data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Struijk, Johannes J.; Struijk, J.J.; Holsheimer, J.; Barolat, Giancarlo; He, Jiping

1992-01-01

The potential distribution in volume couductor models of the spinal cord at cervical, midthoracic and lowthoracic levels, due to epidural stimulation, was calculated. Treshold stimuli of modeled myelhated dorsal column and dorsal root fibers were calculated and were compared with perception

Rats classified as low or high cocaine locomotor responders: A unique model involving striatal dopamine transporters that predicts cocaine addiction-like behaviors

Science.gov (United States)

Yamamoto, Dorothy J.; Nelson, Anna M.; Mandt, Bruce H.; Larson, Gaynor A.; Rorabaugh, Jacki M.; Ng, Christopher M.C.; Barcomb, Kelsey M.; Richards, Toni L.; Allen, Richard M.; Zahniser, Nancy R.

2013-01-01

Individual differences are a hallmark of drug addiction. Here, we describe a rat model based on differential initial responsiveness to low dose cocaine. Despite similar brain cocaine levels, individual outbred Sprague-Dawley rats exhibit markedly different magnitudes of acute cocaine-induced locomotor activity and, thereby, can be classified as low or high cocaine responders (LCRs or HCRs). LCRs and HCRs differ in drug-induced, but not novelty-associated, hyperactivity. LCRs have higher basal numbers of striatal dopamine transporters (DATs) than HCRs and exhibit marginal cocaine inhibition of in vivo DAT activity and cocaine-induced increases in extracellular DA. Importantly, lower initial cocaine response predicts greater locomotor sensitization, conditioned place preference and greater motivation to self-administer cocaine following low dose acquisition. Further, outbred Long-Evans rats classified as LCRs, versus HCRs, are more sensitive to cocaine’s discriminative stimulus effects. Overall, results to date with the LCR/HCR model underscore the contribution of striatal DATs to individual differences in initial cocaine responsiveness and the value of assessing the influence of initial drug response on subsequent expression of addiction-like behaviors. PMID:23850581

Lattice Hamiltonian approach to the Schwinger model. Further results from the strong coupling expansion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szyniszewski, Marcin; Manchester Univ.; Cichy, Krzysztof; Poznan Univ.; Kujawa-Cichy, Agnieszka

2014-10-01

We employ exact diagonalization with strong coupling expansion to the massless and massive Schwinger model. New results are presented for the ground state energy and scalar mass gap in the massless model, which improve the precision to nearly 10 -9 %. We also investigate the chiral condensate and compare our calculations to previous results available in the literature. Oscillations of the chiral condensate which are present while increasing the expansion order are also studied and are shown to be directly linked to the presence of flux loops in the system.

A dynamic bivariate Poisson model for analysing and forecasting match results in the English Premier League

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koopman, S.J.; Lit, R.

2015-01-01

Summary: We develop a statistical model for the analysis and forecasting of football match results which assumes a bivariate Poisson distribution with intensity coefficients that change stochastically over time. The dynamic model is a novelty in the statistical time series analysis of match results

An assessment of the utilization of the preclinical rodent model literature in clinical trials of putative therapeutics for the treatment of alcohol use disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Barajaz, Ashley M; Kliethermes, Christopher L

2017-12-01

Rodent models of Alcohol Use Disorders (AUD) are used extensively by preclinical researchers to develop new therapeutics for the treatment of AUD. Although these models play an important role in the development of novel, targeted therapeutics, their role in bringing therapeutics to clinical trials is unclear, as off-label use of existing medications not approved for the treatment of AUD is commonly seen in the clinic and clinical trials. In the current study, we used the Clinicaltrials.gov database to obtain a list of drugs that have been tested for efficacy in a clinical trial between 1997 and 2017. We then conducted a set of literature searches to determine which of the 98 unique drugs we identified had shown efficacy in a rodent model of an AUD prior to being tested in a clinical trial. We found that slightly less than half of the drugs tested in clinical trials (48%) had shown prior efficacy in any rodent model of an AUD, while the remaining 52% of drugs were used off-label, or in some cases, following non-published studies. This study raises the question of how clinical researchers incorporate results from preclinical studies in the decision to bring a drug to a clinical trial. Our results underscore the need for ongoing communication among preclinical and clinical researchers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exploiting Surface Albedos Products to Bridge the Gap Between Remote Sensing Information and Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Pinty, Bernard; Andredakis, Ioannis; Clerici, Marco; Kaminski, Thomas; Taberner, Malcolm; Stephen, Plummer

2011-01-01

We present results from the application of an inversion method conducted using MODIS derived broadband visible and near-infrared surface albedo products. This contribution is an extension of earlier efforts to optimally retrieve land surface fluxes and associated two- stream model parameters based on the Joint Research Centre Two-stream Inversion Package (JRC-TIP). The discussion focuses on products (based on the mean and one-sigma values of the Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs)) obtained during the summer and winter and highlight specific issues related to snowy conditions. This paper discusses the retrieved model parameters including the effective Leaf Area Index (LAI), the background brightness and the scattering efficiency of the vegetation elements. The spatial and seasonal changes exhibited by these parameters agree with common knowledge and underscore the richness of the high quality surface albedo data sets. At the same time, the opportunity to generate global maps of new products, such as the background albedo, underscores the advantages of using state of the art algorithmic approaches capable of fully exploiting accurate satellite remote sensing datasets. The detailed analyses of the retrieval uncertainties highlight the central role and contribution of the LAI, the main process parameter to interpret radiation transfer observations over vegetated surfaces. The posterior covariance matrix of the uncertainties is further exploited to quantify the knowledge gain from the ingestion of MODIS surface albedo products. The estimation of the radiation fluxes that are absorbed, transmitted and scattered by the vegetation layer and its background is achieved on the basis of the retrieved PDFs of the model parameters. The propagation of uncertainties from the observations to the model parameters is achieved via the Hessian of the cost function and yields a covariance matrix of posterior parameter uncertainties. This matrix is propagated to the radiation

The 7-factor hybrid model of DSM-5 PTSD symptoms and alcohol consumption and consequences in a national sample of trauma-exposed veterans.

Science.gov (United States)

Claycomb Erwin, Meredith; Charak, Ruby; Durham, Tory A; Armour, Cherie; Lv, Xin; Southwick, Steven M; Elhai, Jon D; Pietrzak, Robert H

2017-10-01

The purpose of the present study was to investigate associations between the 7-factor hybrid model of DSM-5 posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, which includes intrusions, avoidance, negative affect, anhedonia, externalizing behaviors, anxious arousal, and dysphoric arousal symptoms, and alcohol consumption and consequences. A nationally representative sample of 916 trauma-exposed U.S. military veterans were administered the Trauma History Screen, PTSD Checklist-5, and Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test. Confirmatory factor analyses were conducted to determine associations between the 7-factor hybrid model of PTSD symptoms, and alcohol consumption and consequences. Results revealed that lifetime dysphoric arousal (r=0.31), negative affect (r=0.30), and anhedonia (r=0.29) symptom clusters were most strongly associated with past-year alcohol consequences. No significant associations were observed for alcohol consumption. While the cross-sectional study design does not allow one to ascertain causative associations between PTSD factors and alcohol consumption and consequences, results generally align with the self-medication hypothesis, as PTSD factors reflecting internalizing were most strongly related to alcohol-related consequences. These results underscore the importance of assessing for alcohol use problems in veterans who score highly on PTSD symptoms reflecting internalizing symptomatology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Implementing Generalized Additive Models to Estimate the Expected Value of Sample Information in a Microsimulation Model: Results of Three Case Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Rabideau, Dustin J; Pei, Pamela P; Walensky, Rochelle P; Zheng, Amy; Parker, Robert A

2018-02-01

The expected value of sample information (EVSI) can help prioritize research but its application is hampered by computational infeasibility, especially for complex models. We investigated an approach by Strong and colleagues to estimate EVSI by applying generalized additive models (GAM) to results generated from a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). For 3 potential HIV prevention and treatment strategies, we estimated life expectancy and lifetime costs using the Cost-effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) model, a complex patient-level microsimulation model of HIV progression. We fitted a GAM-a flexible regression model that estimates the functional form as part of the model fitting process-to the incremental net monetary benefits obtained from the CEPAC PSA. For each case study, we calculated the expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) using both the conventional nested Monte Carlo approach and the GAM approach. EVSI was calculated using the GAM approach. For all 3 case studies, the GAM approach consistently gave similar estimates of EVPPI compared with the conventional approach. The EVSI behaved as expected: it increased and converged to EVPPI for larger sample sizes. For each case study, generating the PSA results for the GAM approach required 3 to 4 days on a shared cluster, after which EVPPI and EVSI across a range of sample sizes were evaluated in minutes. The conventional approach required approximately 5 weeks for the EVPPI calculation alone. Estimating EVSI using the GAM approach with results from a PSA dramatically reduced the time required to conduct a computationally intense project, which would otherwise have been impractical. Using the GAM approach, we can efficiently provide policy makers with EVSI estimates, even for complex patient-level microsimulation models.

Comparison of Experimental Surface and Flow Field Measurements to Computational Results of the Juncture Flow Model

Science.gov (United States)

Roozeboom, Nettie H.; Lee, Henry C.; Simurda, Laura J.; Zilliac, Gregory G.; Pulliam, Thomas H.

2016-01-01

Wing-body juncture flow fields on commercial aircraft configurations are challenging to compute accurately. The NASA Advanced Air Vehicle Program's juncture flow committee is designing an experiment to provide data to improve Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling in the juncture flow region. Preliminary design of the model was done using CFD, yet CFD tends to over-predict the separation in the juncture flow region. Risk reduction wind tunnel tests were requisitioned by the committee to obtain a better understanding of the flow characteristics of the designed models. NASA Ames Research Center's Fluid Mechanics Lab performed one of the risk reduction tests. The results of one case, accompanied by CFD simulations, are presented in this paper. Experimental results suggest the wall mounted wind tunnel model produces a thicker boundary layer on the fuselage than the CFD predictions, resulting in a larger wing horseshoe vortex suppressing the side of body separation in the juncture flow region. Compared to experimental results, CFD predicts a thinner boundary layer on the fuselage generates a weaker wing horseshoe vortex resulting in a larger side of body separation.

Mathematical modeling of ignition of woodlands resulted from accident on the pipeline

Science.gov (United States)

Perminov, V. A.; Loboda, E. L.; Reyno, V. V.

2014-11-01

Accidents occurring at the sites of pipelines, accompanied by environmental damage, economic loss, and sometimes loss of life. In this paper we calculated the sizes of the possible ignition zones in emergency situations on pipelines located close to the forest, accompanied by the appearance of fireballs. In this paper, using the method of mathematical modeling calculates the maximum size of the ignition zones of vegetation as a result of accidental releases of flammable substances. The paper suggested in the context of the general mathematical model of forest fires give a new mathematical setting and method of numerical solution of a problem of a forest fire modeling. The boundary-value problem is solved numerically using the method of splitting according to physical processes. The dependences of the size of the forest fuel for different amounts of leaked flammable substances and moisture content of vegetation.

Comparison of model results obtained with several European regional air quality models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hass, H.; Builtjes, P.J.H.; Simpson, D.; Stern, R.

1997-01-01

An intercomparison study has been performed with four photo-oxidant dispersion models (EMEP, EURAD, LOTOS and REM3) which are currently capable of performing photo-oxidant formation calculations over larger path of Europe. The models, in principle, were run in the mode in which they are normally

New Results on Robust Model Predictive Control for Time-Delay Systems with Input Constraints

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qing Lu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the problem of model predictive control for a class of nonlinear systems subject to state delays and input constraints. The time-varying delay is considered with both upper and lower bounds. A new model is proposed to approximate the delay. And the uncertainty is polytopic type. For the state-feedback MPC design objective, we formulate an optimization problem. Under model transformation, a new model predictive controller is designed such that the robust asymptotical stability of the closed-loop system can be guaranteed. Finally, the applicability of the presented results are demonstrated by a practical example.

The Plumbing of Land Surface Models: Is Poor Performance a Result of Methodology or Data Quality?

Science.gov (United States)

Haughton, Ned; Abramowitz, Gab; Pitman, Andy J.; Or, Dani; Best, Martin J.; Johnson, Helen R.; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Boone, Aaron; Cuntz, Matthais; Decharme, Bertrand;

Predictive Modeling of a Paradigm Mechanical Cooling Tower Model: II. Optimal Best-Estimate Results with Reduced Predicted Uncertainties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruixian Fang

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This work uses the adjoint sensitivity model of the counter-flow cooling tower derived in the accompanying PART I to obtain the expressions and relative numerical rankings of the sensitivities, to all model parameters, of the following model responses: (i outlet air temperature; (ii outlet water temperature; (iii outlet water mass flow rate; and (iv air outlet relative humidity. These sensitivities are subsequently used within the “predictive modeling for coupled multi-physics systems” (PM_CMPS methodology to obtain explicit formulas for the predicted optimal nominal values for the model responses and parameters, along with reduced predicted standard deviations for the predicted model parameters and responses. These explicit formulas embody the assimilation of experimental data and the “calibration” of the model’s parameters. The results presented in this work demonstrate that the PM_CMPS methodology reduces the predicted standard deviations to values that are smaller than either the computed or the experimentally measured ones, even for responses (e.g., the outlet water flow rate for which no measurements are available. These improvements stem from the global characteristics of the PM_CMPS methodology, which combines all of the available information simultaneously in phase-space, as opposed to combining it sequentially, as in current data assimilation procedures.

Removal of arsenic from wastewaters by cryptocrystalline magnesite: complimenting experimental results with modelling

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Masindi, Vhahangwele

2016-02-01

Full Text Available -1 Journal of Cleaner Production Removal of arsenic from wastewaters by cryptocrystalline magnesite: complimenting experimental results with modelling Vhahangwele Masindi W. Mugera Gitari Keywords: Arsenic Mine leachates Cryptocrystalline...

Models of cognitive behavior in nuclear power plant personnel. A feasibility study: summary of results. Volume 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woods, D.D.; Roth, E.M.; Hanes, L.F.

1986-07-01

This report summarizes the results of a feasibility study to determine if the current state of models of human cognitive activities can serve as the basis for improved techniques for predicting human error in nuclear power plants emergency operations. Based on the answer to this question, two subsequent phases of research are planned. Phase II is to develop a model of cognitive activities, and Phase III is to test the model. The feasibility study included an analysis of the cognitive activities that occur in emergency operations and an assessment of the modeling concepts/tools available to capture these cognitive activities. The results indicated that a symbolic processing (or artificial intelligence) model of cognitive activities in nuclear power plants is both desirable and feasible. This cognitive model can be built upon the computational framework provided by an existing artificial intelligence system for medical problem solving, called Caduceus. The resulting cognitive model will increase the capability to capture the human contribution to risk in probabilistic risk assessment studies. Volume 1 summarizes the major findings and conclusions of the study. Volume 2 provides a complete description of the methods and results, including a synthesis of the cognitive activities that occur during emergency operations, and a literature review on cognitive modeling relevant to nuclear power plants. 19 refs

Theoretical results on the tandem junction solar cell based on its Ebers-Moll transistor model

Science.gov (United States)

Goradia, C.; Vaughn, J.; Baraona, C. R.

1980-01-01

A one-dimensional theoretical model of the tandem junction solar cell (TJC) with base resistivity greater than about 1 ohm-cm and under low level injection has been derived. This model extends a previously published conceptual model which treats the TJC as an npn transistor. The model gives theoretical expressions for each of the Ebers-Moll type currents of the illuminated TJC and allows for the calculation of the spectral response, I(sc), V(oc), FF and eta under variation of one or more of the geometrical and material parameters and 1MeV electron fluence. Results of computer calculations based on this model are presented and discussed. These results indicate that for space applications, both a high beginning of life efficiency, greater than 15% AM0, and a high radiation tolerance can be achieved only with thin (less than 50 microns) TJC's with high base resistivity (greater than 10 ohm-cm).

Validation of two-phase CFD models for propellant tank self-pressurization: Crossing fluid types, scales, and gravity levels

Science.gov (United States)

Kassemi, Mohammad; Kartuzova, Olga; Hylton, Sonya

2018-01-01

This paper examines our computational ability to capture the transport and phase change phenomena that govern cryogenic storage tank pressurization and underscores our strengths and weaknesses in this area in terms of three computational-experimental validation case studies. In the first study, 1g pressurization of a simulant low-boiling point fluid in a small scale transparent tank is considered in the context of the Zero-Boil-Off Tank (ZBOT) Experiment to showcase the relatively strong capability that we have developed in modelling the coupling between the convective transport and stratification in the bulk phases with the interfacial evaporative and condensing heat and mass transfer that ultimately control self-pressurization in the storage tank. Here, we show that computational predictions exhibit excellent temporal and spatial fidelity under the moderate Ra number - high Bo number convective-phase distribution regimes. In the second example, we focus on 1g pressurization and pressure control of the large-scale K-site liquid hydrogen tank experiment where we show that by crossing fluid types and physical scales, we enter into high Bo number - high Ra number flow regimes that challenge our ability to predict turbulent heat and mass transfer and their impact on the tank pressurization correctly, especially, in the vapor domain. In the final example, we examine pressurization results from the small scale simulant fluid Tank Pressure Control Experiment (TCPE) performed in microgravity to underscore the fact that in crossing into a low Ra number - low Bo number regime in microgravity, the temporal evolution of the phase front as affected by the time-dependent residual gravity and impulse accelerations becomes an important consideration. In this case detailed acceleration data are needed to predict the correct rate of tank self-pressurization.

Planck intermediate results XXIX. All-sky dust modelling with Planck, IRAS, and WISE observations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Alves, M. I. R.

2016-01-01

We present all-sky modelling of the high resolution Planck, IRAS, andWISE infrared (IR) observations using the physical dust model presented by Draine & Li in 2007 (DL, ApJ, 657, 810). We study the performance and results of this model, and discuss implications for future dust modelling....... The present work extends the DL dust modelling carried out on nearby galaxies using Herschel and Spitzer data to Galactic dust emission. We employ the DL dust model to generate maps of the dust mass surface density Sigma(Md), the dust optical extinction A(V), and the starlight intensity heating the bulk...... of the dust, parametrized by U-min. The DL model reproduces the observed spectral energy distribution (SED) satisfactorily over most of the sky, with small deviations in the inner Galactic disk and in low ecliptic latitude areas, presumably due to zodiacal light contamination. In the Andromeda galaxy (M31...

Methodology and results of the impacts of modeling electric utilities: a comparative evaluation of MEMM and REM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1981-09-01

This study compares two models of the US electric utility industry including the EIA's electric utility submodel in the Midterm Energy Market Model (MEMM), and the Baughman-Joskow Regionalized Electricity Model (REM). The method of comparison emphasizes reconciliation of differences in data common to both models, and the performance of simulation experiments to evaluate the empirical significance of certain structural differences in the models. The major research goal was to contrast and compare the effects of alternative modeling structures and data assumptions on model results; and, particularly to considered each model's approach to the impacts of generation technology and fuel use choices on electric utilities. The methodology used was to run the REM model first without and, then, with a representation of the Power Plant and Industrial Fuel Act of 1978, assuming medium supply and demand curves and varying fuel prices. The models and data structures of the two models are described. The original 1978 data used in MEMM and REM are analyzed and compared. The computations and effects of different assumptions on fuel use decisions are discussed. The adjusted REM data required for the experiments are presented. Simulation results of the two models are compared. These results represent projections for 1985, 1990, and 1995 of: US power generation by plant type; amounts of each type of fuel used for power generation; average electricity prices; and the effects of additional or fewer nuclear and coal-fired plants. A significant result is that the REM model exhibits about 7 times as much gas and oil consumption in 1995 as the MEMM model. Continuing simulation experiments on MEMM are recommended to determine whether the input data to MEMM are reasonable and properly adjusted

Disordered eating among Asian American college women: A racially expanded model of objectification theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Hsiu-Lan; Tran, Alisia G T T; Miyake, Elisa R; Kim, Helen Youngju

2017-03-01

Objectification theory has been applied to understand disordered eating among college women. A recent extension of objectification theory (Moradi, 2010) conceptualizes racism as a socialization experience that shapes women of color's objectification experiences, yet limited research has examined this theoretical assertion. The present study proposed and examined a racially expanded model of objectification theory that postulated perceived racial discrimination, perpetual foreigner racism, and racial/ethnic teasing as correlates of Asian American college women's (N = 516) self-objectification processes and eating disorder symptomatology. Perceived racial discrimination, perpetual foreigner racism, and racial/ethnic teasing were indirectly associated with eating disordered symptomatology through self-objectification processes of internalization of media ideals of beauty (media internalization), body surveillance, and body shame. Results support the inclusion of racial stressors as contexts of objectification for Asian American women. The present findings also underscore perceived racial discrimination, racial/ethnic teasing, and perpetual foreigner racism as group-specific risk factors with major theoretical, empirical, and clinical relevance to eating disorder research and treatment with Asian American college women. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Comparison of the 1981 INEL dispersion data with results from a number of different models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lewellen, W S; Sykes, R I; Parker, S F

1985-05-01

The results from simulations by 12 different dispersion models are compared with observations from an extensive field experiment conducted by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory in July, 1981. Comparisons were made on the bases of hourly SF/sub 6/ samples taken at the surface, out to approximately 10 km from the 46 m release tower, both during and following 7 different 8-hour releases. Comparisons are also made for total integrated doses collected out to approximately 40 km. Three classes of models are used. Within the limited range appropriate for Class A models this data comparison shows that neither the puff models or the transport and diffusion models agree with the data any better than the simple Gaussian plume models. The puff and transport and diffusion models do show a slight edge in performance in comparison with the total dose over the extended range approximate for class B models. The best model results for the hourly samples show approximately 40% calculated within a factor of two when a 15/sup 0/ uncertainty in plume position is permitted and it is assumed that higher data samples may occur at stations between the actual sample sites. This is increased to 60% for the 12 hour integrated dose and 70% for the total integrated dose when the same performance measure is used. None of the models reproduce the observed patchy dose patterns. This patchiness is consistent with the discussion of the inherent uncertainty associated with time averaged plume observations contained in our companion reports on the scientific critique of available models.

A Module for Graphical Display of Model Results with the CBP Toolbox

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, F. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

2015-04-21

This report describes work performed by the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) in fiscal year 2014 to add enhanced graphical capabilities to display model results in the Cementitious Barriers Project (CBP) Toolbox. Because Version 2.0 of the CBP Toolbox has just been released, the graphing enhancements described in this report have not yet been integrated into a new version of the Toolbox. Instead they have been tested using a standalone GoldSim model and, while they are substantially complete, may undergo further refinement before full implementation. Nevertheless, this report is issued to document the FY14 development efforts which will provide a basis for further development of the CBP Toolbox.

Results of the benchmark for blade structural models, part A

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lekou, D.J.; Chortis, D.; Belen Fariñas, A.

2013-01-01

A benchmark on structural design methods for blades was performed within the InnWind.Eu project under WP2 “Lightweight Rotor” Task 2.2 “Lightweight structural design”. The present document is describes the results of the comparison simulation runs that were performed by the partners involved within...... Task 2.2 of the InnWind.Eu project. The benchmark is based on the reference wind turbine and the reference blade provided by DTU [1]. "Structural Concept developers/modelers" of WP2 were provided with the necessary input for a comparison numerical simulation run, upon definition of the reference blade...

Innovation ecosystem model for commercialization of research results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vlăduţ Gabriel

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Innovation means Creativity and Added value recognise by the market. The first step in creating a sustainable commercialization of research results, Technological Transfer – TT mechanism, on one hand is to define the “technology” which will be transferred and on other hand to define the context in which the TT mechanism work, the ecosystem. The focus must be set on technology as an entity, not as a science or a study of the practical industrial arts and certainly not any specific applied science. The transfer object, the technology, must rely on a subjectively determined but specifiable set of processes and products. Focusing on the product is not sufficient to the transfer and diffusion of technology. It is not merely the product that is transferred but also knowledge of its use and application. The innovation ecosystem model brings together new companies, experienced business leaders, researchers, government officials, established technology companies, and investors. This environment provides those new companies with a wealth of technical expertise, business experience, and access to capital that supports innovation in the early stages of growth.

Analytical results for entanglement in the five-qubit anisotropic Heisenberg model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Xiaoguang

2004-01-01

We solve the eigenvalue problem of the five-qubit anisotropic Heisenberg model, without use of Bethe's ansatz, and give analytical results for entanglement and mixedness of two nearest-neighbor qubits. The entanglement takes its maximum at Δ=1 (Δ>1) for the case of zero (finite) temperature with Δ being the anisotropic parameter. In contrast, the mixedness takes its minimum at Δ=1 (Δ>1) for the case of zero (finite) temperature

About the Need of Combining Power Market and Power Grid Model Results for Future Energy System Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Mende, Denis; Böttger, Diana; Löwer, Lothar; Becker, Holger; Akbulut, Alev; Stock, Sebastian

2018-02-01

The European power grid infrastructure faces various challenges due to the expansion of renewable energy sources (RES). To conduct investigations on interactions between power generation and the power grid, models for the power market as well as for the power grid are necessary. This paper describes the basic functionalities and working principles of both types of models as well as steps to couple power market results and the power grid model. The combination of these models is beneficial in terms of gaining realistic power flow scenarios in the grid model and of being able to pass back results of the power flow and restrictions to the market model. Focus is laid on the power grid model and possible application examples like algorithms in grid analysis, operation and dynamic equipment modelling.

Probing the dynamics of identified neurons with a data-driven modeling approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Nowotny

2008-07-01

Full Text Available In controlling animal behavior the nervous system has to perform within the operational limits set by the requirements of each specific behavior. The implications for the corresponding range of suitable network, single neuron, and ion channel properties have remained elusive. In this article we approach the question of how well-constrained properties of neuronal systems may be on the neuronal level. We used large data sets of the activity of isolated invertebrate identified cells and built an accurate conductance-based model for this cell type using customized automated parameter estimation techniques. By direct inspection of the data we found that the variability of the neurons is larger when they are isolated from the circuit than when in the intact system. Furthermore, the responses of the neurons to perturbations appear to be more consistent than their autonomous behavior under stationary conditions. In the developed model, the constraints on different parameters that enforce appropriate model dynamics vary widely from some very tightly controlled parameters to others that are almost arbitrary. The model also allows predictions for the effect of blocking selected ionic currents and to prove that the origin of irregular dynamics in the neuron model is proper chaoticity and that this chaoticity is typical in an appropriate sense. Our results indicate that data driven models are useful tools for the in-depth analysis of neuronal dynamics. The better consistency of responses to perturbations, in the real neurons as well as in the model, suggests a paradigm shift away from measuring autonomous dynamics alone towards protocols of controlled perturbations. Our predictions for the impact of channel blockers on the neuronal dynamics and the proof of chaoticity underscore the wide scope of our approach.

Advanced Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Flight Dynamics; Interim Results and Challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Hyde, David C.; Shweyk, Kamal M.; Brown, Frank; Shah, Gautam

2014-01-01

into a real-time simulation capability, generating techniques for uncertainty modeling that draw data from multiple modeling sources, and providing a unified database model that includes nominal plus increments for each flight condition. This paper presents status of testing in the BR&T water tunnel and analysis of the resulting data and efforts to characterize these data using alternative modeling methods. Program challenges and issues are also presented.

A Risk Prediction Model for Sporadic CRC Based on Routine Lab Results.

Science.gov (United States)

Boursi, Ben; Mamtani, Ronac; Hwang, Wei-Ting; Haynes, Kevin; Yang, Yu-Xiao

2016-07-01

Current risk scores for colorectal cancer (CRC) are based on demographic and behavioral factors and have limited predictive values. To develop a novel risk prediction model for sporadic CRC using clinical and laboratory data in electronic medical records. We conducted a nested case-control study in a UK primary care database. Cases included those with a diagnostic code of CRC, aged 50-85. Each case was matched with four controls using incidence density sampling. CRC predictors were examined using univariate conditional logistic regression. Variables with p value CRC prediction models which included age, sex, height, obesity, ever smoking, alcohol dependence, and previous screening colonoscopy had an AUC of 0.58 (0.57-0.59) with poor goodness of fit. A laboratory-based model including hematocrit, MCV, lymphocytes, and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) had an AUC of 0.76 (0.76-0.77) and a McFadden's R2 of 0.21 with a NRI of 47.6 %. A combined model including sex, hemoglobin, MCV, white blood cells, platelets, NLR, and oral hypoglycemic use had an AUC of 0.80 (0.79-0.81) with a McFadden's R2 of 0.27 and a NRI of 60.7 %. Similar results were shown in an internal validation set. A laboratory-based risk model had good predictive power for sporadic CRC risk.

Mathematical Modeling of Cellular Cross-Talk Between Endothelial and Tumor Cells Highlights Counterintuitive Effects of VEGF-Targeted Therapies.

Science.gov (United States)

Jain, Harsh; Jackson, Trachette

2018-05-01

Tumor growth and progression are critically dependent on the establishment of a vascular support system. This is often accomplished via the expression of pro-angiogenic growth factors, including members of the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) family of ligands. VEGF ligands are overexpressed in a wide variety of solid tumors and therefore have inspired optimism that inhibition of the different axes of the VEGF pathway-alone or in combination-would represent powerful anti-angiogenic therapies for most cancer types. When considering treatments that target VEGF and its receptors, it is difficult to tease out the differential anti-angiogenic and anti-tumor effects of all combinations experimentally because tumor cells and vascular endothelial cells are engaged in a dynamic cross-talk that impacts key aspects of tumorigenesis, independent of angiogenesis. Here we develop a mathematical model that connects intracellular signaling responsible for both endothelial and tumor cell proliferation and death to population-level cancer growth and angiogenesis. We use this model to investigate the effect of bidirectional communication between endothelial cells and tumor cells on treatments targeting VEGF and its receptors both in vitro and in vivo. Our results underscore the fact that in vitro therapeutic outcomes do not always translate to the in vivo situation. For example, our model predicts that certain therapeutic combinations result in antagonism in vivo that is not observed in vitro. Mathematical modeling in this direction can shed light on the mechanisms behind experimental observations that manipulating VEGF and its receptors is successful in some cases but disappointing in others.

Demixing in a metal halide lamp, results from modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beks, M.L.; Hartgers, A.; Mullen, van der J.J.A.M.

2006-01-01

Convection and diffusion in the discharge region of a metal halide lamp is studied using a computer model built with the plasma modeling package Plasimo. A model lamp contg. mercury and sodium iodide is studied. The effects of the total lamp pressure on the degree of segregation of the light

Conversion of IVA Human Computer Model to EVA Use and Evaluation and Comparison of the Result to Existing EVA Models

Science.gov (United States)

Hamilton, George S.; Williams, Jermaine C.

1998-01-01

This paper describes the methods, rationale, and comparative results of the conversion of an intravehicular (IVA) 3D human computer model (HCM) to extravehicular (EVA) use and compares the converted model to an existing model on another computer platform. The task of accurately modeling a spacesuited human figure in software is daunting: the suit restricts the human's joint range of motion (ROM) and does not have joints collocated with human joints. The modeling of the variety of materials needed to construct a space suit (e. g. metal bearings, rigid fiberglass torso, flexible cloth limbs and rubber coated gloves) attached to a human figure is currently out of reach of desktop computer hardware and software. Therefore a simplified approach was taken. The HCM's body parts were enlarged and the joint ROM was restricted to match the existing spacesuit model. This basic approach could be used to model other restrictive environments in industry such as chemical or fire protective clothing. In summary, the approach provides a moderate fidelity, usable tool which will run on current notebook computers.

Probe-level linear model fitting and mixture modeling results in high accuracy detection of differential gene expression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lemieux Sébastien

2006-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The identification of differentially expressed genes (DEGs from Affymetrix GeneChips arrays is currently done by first computing expression levels from the low-level probe intensities, then deriving significance by comparing these expression levels between conditions. The proposed PL-LM (Probe-Level Linear Model method implements a linear model applied on the probe-level data to directly estimate the treatment effect. A finite mixture of Gaussian components is then used to identify DEGs using the coefficients estimated by the linear model. This approach can readily be applied to experimental design with or without replication. Results On a wholly defined dataset, the PL-LM method was able to identify 75% of the differentially expressed genes within 10% of false positives. This accuracy was achieved both using the three replicates per conditions available in the dataset and using only one replicate per condition. Conclusion The method achieves, on this dataset, a higher accuracy than the best set of tools identified by the authors of the dataset, and does so using only one replicate per condition.

Carbon dioxide /V2/ radiance results using a new nonequilibrium model

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, R. D.; Nadile, R. M.

1981-01-01

It was observed during the SPIRE experiment (Spectral Infrared Rocket Experiment) that the 15 micron limb radiance stays constant from 95 to 110 km despite the fact that CO2 concentration over this altitude range decreases by a factor of 20. The results of a 15 micron CO2 radiance model are presented which explain the observed anomaly. It is shown that CO2 deactivation by oxygen is the predominant factor in 15 micron emission above 95 km.

Competency model for dentists in China: Results of a Delphi study.

Science.gov (United States)

Geng, Yunxia; Zhao, Liying; Wang, Yu; Jiang, Yiyuan; Meng, Kai; Zheng, Dongxiang

2018-01-01

With the increasing awareness of the importance of oral health, patients have an increasing need for integrated care from dentists. In China, the dentistry examination consists of two parts: a practical skills examination and a comprehensive medical examination; to date, no assessment methods that are based on specialized dentistry competencies, unlike the United States, Canada, and other countries, have been established. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to construct a competency model for dentists in China in order to guide the development, admission, training and assessment of dentists. Using a literature review, focus group interviews and in-depth personal interviews, a dentist competency index was developed with an expert consultation questionnaire. A panel of 20 specialist experts was chosen from ten national medical universities to carry out two rounds of Delphi expert analysis, using the boundary value method to filter the indicators and the Analytic Hierarchy Process to calculate the weights of the primary indicators. Two rounds of Delphi results showed that the expert authority, enthusiasm, and coordination coefficients were high. Constructs of the competency model that included seven primary indicators and 62 secondary indicators determined the weight of each index. The seven primary indicators included the following: clinical skills and medical services, disease prevention and health promotion, interpersonal communication skills, core values and professionalism, medical knowledge and lifelong learning ability, teamwork ability and scientific research ability. In conclusion, the use of the Delphi method to construct an initial model of Chinese physician competency is scientific and feasible. The initial competency model conforms to the characteristics and quality requirements of dentists in China and has a strong scientific basis. The dentist competency model should be used in the National Dental Licensing Examination in China.

Regionalization of climate model results for the North Sea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kauker, F.

1999-07-01

A dynamical downscaling is presented that allows an estimation of potential effects of climate change on the North Sea. Therefore, the ocean general circulation model OPYC is adapted for application on a shelf by adding a lateral boundary formulation and a tide model. In this set-up the model is forced, first, with data from the ECMWF reanalysis for model validation and the study of the natural variability, and, second, with data from climate change experiments to estimate the effects of climate change on the North Sea. (orig.)

Constraining performance assessment models with tracer test results: a comparison between two conceptual models

Science.gov (United States)

McKenna, Sean A.; Selroos, Jan-Olof

Tracer tests are conducted to ascertain solute transport parameters of a single rock feature over a 5-m transport pathway. Two different conceptualizations of double-porosity solute transport provide estimates of the tracer breakthrough curves. One of the conceptualizations (single-rate) employs a single effective diffusion coefficient in a matrix with infinite penetration depth. However, the tracer retention between different flow paths can vary as the ratio of flow-wetted surface to flow rate differs between the path lines. The other conceptualization (multirate) employs a continuous distribution of multiple diffusion rate coefficients in a matrix with variable, yet finite, capacity. Application of these two models with the parameters estimated on the tracer test breakthrough curves produces transport results that differ by orders of magnitude in peak concentration and time to peak concentration at the performance assessment (PA) time and length scales (100,000 years and 1,000 m). These differences are examined by calculating the time limits for the diffusive capacity to act as an infinite medium. These limits are compared across both conceptual models and also against characteristic times for diffusion at both the tracer test and PA scales. Additionally, the differences between the models are examined by re-estimating parameters for the multirate model from the traditional double-porosity model results at the PA scale. Results indicate that for each model the amount of the diffusive capacity that acts as an infinite medium over the specified time scale explains the differences between the model results and that tracer tests alone cannot provide reliable estimates of transport parameters for the PA scale. Results of Monte Carlo runs of the transport models with varying travel times and path lengths show consistent results between models and suggest that the variation in flow-wetted surface to flow rate along path lines is insignificant relative to variability in

A hierarchy of models for simulating experimental results from a 3D heterogeneous porous medium

Science.gov (United States)

Vogler, Daniel; Ostvar, Sassan; Paustian, Rebecca; Wood, Brian D.

2018-04-01

In this work we examine the dispersion of conservative tracers (bromide and fluorescein) in an experimentally-constructed three-dimensional dual-porosity porous medium. The medium is highly heterogeneous (σY2 = 5.7), and consists of spherical, low-hydraulic-conductivity inclusions embedded in a high-hydraulic-conductivity matrix. The bimodal medium was saturated with tracers, and then flushed with tracer-free fluid while the effluent breakthrough curves were measured. The focus for this work is to examine a hierarchy of four models (in the absence of adjustable parameters) with decreasing complexity to assess their ability to accurately represent the measured breakthrough curves. The most information-rich model was (1) a direct numerical simulation of the system in which the geometry, boundary and initial conditions, and medium properties were fully independently characterized experimentally with high fidelity. The reduced-information models included; (2) a simplified numerical model identical to the fully-resolved direct numerical simulation (DNS) model, but using a domain that was one-tenth the size; (3) an upscaled mobile-immobile model that allowed for a time-dependent mass-transfer coefficient; and, (4) an upscaled mobile-immobile model that assumed a space-time constant mass-transfer coefficient. The results illustrated that all four models provided accurate representations of the experimental breakthrough curves as measured by global RMS error. The primary component of error induced in the upscaled models appeared to arise from the neglect of convection within the inclusions. We discuss the necessity to assign value (via a utility function or other similar method) to outcomes if one is to further select from among model options. Interestingly, these results suggested that the conventional convection-dispersion equation, when applied in a way that resolves the heterogeneities, yields models with high fidelity without requiring the imposition of a more

A Duality Result for the Generalized Erlang Risk Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lanpeng Ji

2014-11-01

Full Text Available In this article, we consider the generalized Erlang risk model and its dual model. By using a conditional measure-preserving correspondence between the two models, we derive an identity for two interesting conditional probabilities. Applications to the discounted joint density of the surplus prior to ruin and the deficit at ruin are also discussed.

[Economic efficiency of renal denervation in patients with resistant hypertension: results of Markov modeling].

Science.gov (United States)

Kontsevaia, A V; Suvorova, E I; Khudiakov, M B

2014-01-01

Aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of renal denervation (RD) in resistant arterial hypertension (AH) in Russia. Modeling of Markov conducted economic impact of RD on the Russian population of patients with resistant hypertension in combination with optimal medical therapy (OMT) compared with OMT using a model developed by American researchers based on the results of international research. The model contains data on Russian mortality, and costs of major complications of hypertension. The simulation results showed a significant reduction in relative risk reduction of adverse outcomes in patients with resistant hypertension for 10 years (risk of stroke is reduced by 30%, myocardial infarction - 32%). RD saves 0.9 years of quality-adjusted life (QALY) by an average of 1 patient with resistant hypertension. Costs for 1 year stored in the application of quality of life amounted to RD 203 791.6 rubles. Which is below the 1 gross domestic product and therefore indicates the feasibility of this method in Russia.

Noninvasive assessment of mitral inertness [correction of inertance]: clinical results with numerical model validation.

Science.gov (United States)

Firstenberg, M S; Greenberg, N L; Smedira, N G; McCarthy, P M; Garcia, M J; Thomas, J D

2001-01-01

Inertial forces (Mdv/dt) are a significant component of transmitral flow, but cannot be measured with Doppler echo. We validated a method of estimating Mdv/dt. Ten patients had a dual sensor transmitral (TM) catheter placed during cardiac surgery. Doppler and 2D echo was performed while acquiring LA and LV pressures. Mdv/dt was determined from the Bernoulli equation using Doppler velocities and TM gradients. Results were compared with numerical modeling. TM gradients (range: 1.04-14.24 mmHg) consisted of 74.0 +/- 11.0% inertial forcers (range: 0.6-12.9 mmHg). Multivariate analysis predicted Mdv/dt = -4.171(S/D (RATIO)) + 0.063(LAvolume-max) + 5. Using this equation, a strong relationship was obtained for the clinical dataset (y=0.98x - 0.045, r=0.90) and the results of numerical modeling (y=0.96x - 0.16, r=0.84). TM gradients are mainly inertial and, as validated by modeling, can be estimated with echocardiography.

Repeat confirmatory testing for persons with discordant whole blood and oral fluid rapid HIV test results: findings from post marketing surveillance.

Science.gov (United States)

Wesolowski, Laura G; Mackellar, Duncan A; Ethridge, Steven F; Zhu, Julia H; Owen, S Michele; Sullivan, Patrick S

2008-02-06

Reactive oral fluid and whole blood rapid HIV tests must be followed with a confirmatory test (Western blot (WB), immunofluorescent assay (IFA) or approved nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT)). When the confirmatory result is negative or indeterminate (i.e. discordant with rapid result), repeat confirmatory testing should be conducted using a follow-up specimen. Previous reports have not described whether repeat testing adequately resolves the HIV-infection status of persons with discordant results. Post-marketing surveillance was conducted in 368 testing sites affiliated with 14 state and 2 city health departments from August 11, 2004 to June 30, 2005 and one health department through December 31, 2005. For persons with discordant results, data were collected on demographics, risk behaviors, HIV test results and specimen types. Persons with repeat confirmatory results were classified as HIV-infected or uninfected. Regression models were created to assess risk factors for not having repeat testing. Of 167,371 rapid tests conducted, 2589 (1.6%) were reactive: of these, 2417 (93%) had positive WB/IFA, 172 (7%) had negative or indeterminate WB/IFA. Of 89/172 (52%) persons with a repeat confirmatory test: 17 (19%) were HIV-infected, including 3 with indeterminate WB and positive NAAT; 72 (81%) were uninfected, including 12 with repeat indeterminate WB. Factors associated with HIV-infection included having an initial indeterminate WB/IFA (vs. negative) (ptest [adjusted OR 2.6, 95% CI (1.3, 4.9)]. Though only half of persons with discordant results had repeat confirmatory testing, of those who did, nearly one in five were HIV-infected. These findings underscore the need for rapid HIV testing programs to increase repeat confirmatory testing for persons with discordant results. Because of the lower sensitivity of oral fluid WBs, confirmatory testing following a reactive rapid test should be conducted using serum or plasma, when possible.

Sea ice thermohaline dynamics and biogeochemistry in the Arctic Ocean: Empirical and model results

Science.gov (United States)

Duarte, Pedro; Meyer, Amelie; Olsen, Lasse M.; Kauko, Hanna M.; Assmy, Philipp; Rösel, Anja; Itkin, Polona; Hudson, Stephen R.; Granskog, Mats A.; Gerland, Sebastian; Sundfjord, Arild; Steen, Harald; Hop, Haakon; Cohen, Lana; Peterson, Algot K.; Jeffery, Nicole; Elliott, Scott M.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Turner, Adrian K.

2017-07-01

Large changes in the sea ice regime of the Arctic Ocean have occurred over the last decades justifying the development of models to forecast sea ice physics and biogeochemistry. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the performance of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) to simulate physical and biogeochemical properties at time scales of a few weeks and to use the model to analyze ice algal bloom dynamics in different types of ice. Ocean and atmospheric forcing data and observations of the evolution of the sea ice properties collected from 18 April to 4 June 2015, during the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition, were used to test the CICE model. Our results show the following: (i) model performance is reasonable for sea ice thickness and bulk salinity; good for vertically resolved temperature, vertically averaged Chl a concentrations, and standing stocks; and poor for vertically resolved Chl a concentrations. (ii) Improving current knowledge about nutrient exchanges, ice algal recruitment, and motion is critical to improve sea ice biogeochemical modeling. (iii) Ice algae may bloom despite some degree of basal melting. (iv) Ice algal motility driven by gradients in limiting factors is a plausible mechanism to explain their vertical distribution. (v) Different ice algal bloom and net primary production (NPP) patterns were identified in the ice types studied, suggesting that ice algal maximal growth rates will increase, while sea ice vertically integrated NPP and biomass will decrease as a result of the predictable increase in the area covered by refrozen leads in the Arctic Ocean.

Dynamic models for radionuclide transport in agricultural ecosystems: summary of results from a UK code comparison exercise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meekings, G.F.; Walters, B.

1986-01-01

In recent years, models have been developed by three organisations in the UK to represent the time-dependent behaviour of radionuclides in agricultural ecosystems. These models were developed largely independently of each other and, in view of their potential applications in relation to radioactive waste management and discharge, the Food Science Division of the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food initiated a calculational intercomparison exercise with the agreement and cooperation of all three organisations involved. A subset of the results obtained is reported here. In general a high degree of consistency between the results of the various models was obtained particularly regarding the responses with time. The exercise supported the case for using dynamic models in radiological assessment studies. It also demonstrated areas where differences in results from the models are a consequence of a lack of appropriate data on the environmental behaviour of the radionuclides considered. (author)

How to constrain multi-objective calibrations using water balance components for an improved realism of model results

Science.gov (United States)

Accurate discharge simulation is one of the most common objectives of hydrological modeling studies. However, a good simulation of discharge is not necessarily the result of a realistic simulation of hydrological processes within the catchment. To enhance the realism of model results, we propose an ...

Active vibration absorber for CSI evolutionary model: Design and experimental results

Science.gov (United States)

Bruner, Anne M.; Belvin, W. Keith; Horta, Lucas G.; Juang, Jer-Nan

1991-01-01

The development of control of large flexible structures technology must include practical demonstration to aid in the understanding and characterization of controlled structures in space. To support this effort, a testbed facility was developed to study practical implementation of new control technologies under realistic conditions. The design is discussed of a second order, acceleration feedback controller which acts as an active vibration absorber. This controller provides guaranteed stability margins for collocated sensor/actuator pairs in the absence of sensor/actuator dynamics and computational time delay. The primary performance objective considered is damping augmentation of the first nine structural modes. Comparison of experimental and predicted closed loop damping is presented, including test and simulation time histories for open and closed loop cases. Although the simulation and test results are not in full agreement, robustness of this design under model uncertainty is demonstrated. The basic advantage of this second order controller design is that the stability of the controller is model independent.

Geoengineering by stratospheric SO2 injection: results from the Met Office HadGEM2 climate model and comparison with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Kravitz

2010-07-01

Full Text Available We examine the response of the Met Office Hadley Centre's HadGEM2-AO climate model to simulated geoengineering by continuous injection of SO2 into the lower stratosphere, and compare the results with those from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. Despite the differences between the models, we find a broadly similar geographic distribution of the response to geoengineering in both models in terms of near-surface air temperature and mean June–August precipitation. The simulations also suggest that significant changes in regional climate would be experienced even if geoengineering was successful in maintaining global-mean temperature near current values, and both models indicate rapid warming if geoengineering is not sustained.

Modelled and Observed Diurnal SST Signals: "SSTDV:R.EX.-IM.A.M." Project Preliminary Results

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karagali, Ioanna; Høyer, Jacob; LeBorgne, Pierre

2013-01-01

This study presents some of the preliminary results from the ESA Support To Science Element (STSE) funded project on the Diurnal Variability of the Sea Surface Temperature, regarding its Regional Extend and Implications in Atmospheric Modelling (SSTDV:R.EX.–IM.A.M.). During this phase of the proj......This study presents some of the preliminary results from the ESA Support To Science Element (STSE) funded project on the Diurnal Variability of the Sea Surface Temperature, regarding its Regional Extend and Implications in Atmospheric Modelling (SSTDV:R.EX.–IM.A.M.). During this phase...

Results from the Savannah River Laboratory model validation workshop

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pepper, D.W.

1981-01-01

To evaluate existing and newly developed air pollution models used in DOE-funded laboratories, the Savannah River Laboratory sponsored a model validation workshop. The workshop used Kr-85 measurements and meteorology data obtained at SRL during 1975 to 1977. Individual laboratories used models to calculate daily, weekly, monthly or annual test periods. Cumulative integrated air concentrations were reported at each grid point and at each of the eight sampler locations

Preliminary results of Physiological plant growth modelling for human life support in space

Science.gov (United States)

Sasidharan L, Swathy; Dussap, Claude-Gilles; Hezard, Pauline

2012-07-01

physiological plant model, in the case of lettuce (since the leaf metabolic model predominates), the developed model was verified with the carbon consumption of plant, as input. The model predicts the biomass production (as output) with respect to the quantum of light absorbed by the plant. The obtained result was found satisfying for the first initiation in the physiological plant modelling.

Numerical modeling of historical change of volcanic heat sources: Numerical modeling of heat and mass transport up to 1000 degree C; Kazansei netsugen no keiji henka no shumyureshon kaiseki: 1000 degree C madeno netsu{center{underscore}dot}ryutai shumyureshon kaiseki

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hanano, Mineyuki [JMC Geothermal Engineering Corp., Iwate (Japan)

1998-12-01

Temperature structure and its historical change around volcanos has been of interest for volcanology, geothermal development, etc. Magmatic intrusives have temperatures ranging from 700 to 850 degree C. Thus, there exists super-critical fluid around them. Numerical modeling of temperature changes around young volcanos and their heat sources thus requires treatment of the super-critical fluid. We describe one method for effective treatment of the super-critical fluid in the numerical modeling of porous media for the purpose of solving large-scale high-temperature problems of such phenomena. (author)

Global Monthly CO2 Flux Inversion Based on Results of Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, F.; Chen, J.; Peters, W.; Krol, M.

2008-12-01

Most of our understanding of the sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 has come from inverse studies of atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements. However, the number of currently available observation stations and our ability to simulate the diurnal planetary boundary layer evolution over continental regions essentially limit the number of regions that can be reliably inverted globally, especially over continental areas. In order to overcome these restrictions, a nested inverse modeling system was developed based on the Bayesian principle for estimating carbon fluxes of 30 regions in North America and 20 regions for the rest of the globe. Inverse modeling was conducted in monthly steps using CO2 concentration measurements of 5 years (2000 - 2005) with the following two models: (a) An atmospheric transport model (TM5) is used to generate the transport matrix where the diurnal variation n of atmospheric CO2 concentration is considered to enhance the use of the afternoon-hour average CO2 concentration measurements over the continental sites. (b) A process-based terrestrial ecosystem model (BEPS) is used to produce hourly step carbon fluxes, which could minimize the limitation due to our inability to solve the inverse problem in a high resolution, as the background of our inversion. We will present our recent results achieved through a combination of the bottom-up modeling with BEPS and the top-down modeling based on TM5 driven by offline meteorological fields generated by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMFW).

Rainfall-induced fecal indicator organisms transport from manured fields: model sensitivity analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Martinez, Gonzalo; Pachepsky, Yakov A; Whelan, Gene; Yakirevich, Alexander M; Guber, Andrey; Gish, Timothy J

2014-02-01

Microbial quality of surface waters attracts attention due to food- and waterborne disease outbreaks. Fecal indicator organisms (FIOs) are commonly used for the microbial pollution level evaluation. Models predicting the fate and transport of FIOs are required to design and evaluate best management practices that reduce the microbial pollution in ecosystems and water sources and thus help to predict the risk of food and waterborne diseases. In this study we performed a sensitivity analysis for the KINEROS/STWIR model developed to predict the FIOs transport out of manured fields to other fields and water bodies in order to identify input variables that control the transport uncertainty. The distributions of model input parameters were set to encompass values found from three-year experiments at the USDA-ARS OPE3 experimental site in Beltsville and publicly available information. Sobol' indices and complementary regression trees were used to perform the global sensitivity analysis of the model and to explore the interactions between model input parameters on the proportion of FIO removed from fields. Regression trees provided a useful visualization of the differences in sensitivity of the model output in different parts of the input variable domain. Environmental controls such as soil saturation, rainfall duration and rainfall intensity had the largest influence in the model behavior, whereas soil and manure properties ranked lower. The field length had only moderate effect on the model output sensitivity to the model inputs. Among the manure-related properties the parameter determining the shape of the FIO release kinetic curve had the largest influence on the removal of FIOs from the fields. That underscored the need to better characterize the FIO release kinetics. Since the most sensitive model inputs are available in soil and weather databases or can be obtained using soil water models, results indicate the opportunity of obtaining large-scale estimates of FIO

Cladding oxidation during air ingress. Part II: Synthesis of modelling results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beuzet, E.; Haurais, F.; Bals, C.; Coindreau, O.; Fernandez-Moguel, L.; Vasiliev, A.; Park, S.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A state-of-the-art for air oxidation modelling in the frame of severe accident is done. • Air oxidation models from main severe accident codes are detailed. • Simulations from main severe accident codes are compared against experimental results. • Perspectives in terms of need for further model development and experiments are given. - Abstract: Air ingress is a potential risk in some low probable situations of severe accidents in a nuclear power plant. Air is a highly oxidizing atmosphere that can lead to an enhanced Zr-based cladding oxidation and core degradation affecting the release of fission products. This is particularly true speaking about ruthenium release, due to its high radiotoxicity and its ability to form highly volatile oxides in a significant manner in presence of air. The oxygen affinity is decreasing from the Zircaloy cladding, fuel and ruthenium inclusions. It is consequently of great need to understand the phenomena governing cladding oxidation by air as a prerequisite for the source term issues in such scenarios. In the past years, many works have been done on cladding oxidation by air under severe accident conditions. This paper with in addition the paper “Cladding oxidation during air ingress – Part I: Synthesis of experimental results” of this journal issue aim at assessing the state of the art on this phenomenon. In this paper, the modelling of air ingress phenomena in the main severe accident codes (ASTEC, ATHLET-CD, MAAP, MELCOR, RELAP/SCDAPSIM, SOCRAT) is described in details, as well as the validation against the integral experiments QUENCH-10, QUENCH-16 and PARAMETER-SF4. A full review of cladding oxidation by air is thus established.

Some results of model calculations of the solar S-component radio emission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krueger, A.; Hildebrandt, J.

1985-01-01

Numerical calculations of special characteristics of the solar S-component microwave radiation are presented on the basis of recent sunspot and plage models. Quantitative results are discussed and can be used for the plasma diagnostics of solar active regions by comparisons with observations with high spatial and spectral resolution. The possibility of generalized applications to magnetic stars and stellar activity is briefly noted. (author)

Ecosystem Model Performance at Wetlands: Results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis

Science.gov (United States)

Sulman, B. N.; Desai, A. R.; Schroeder, N. M.; NACP Site Synthesis Participants

2011-12-01

Northern peatlands contain a significant fraction of the global carbon pool, and their responses to hydrological change are likely to be important factors in future carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Global-scale carbon cycle modeling studies typically use general ecosystem models with coarse spatial resolution, often without peatland-specific processes. Here, seven ecosystem models were used to simulate CO2 fluxes at three field sites in Canada and the northern United States, including two nutrient-rich fens and one nutrient-poor, sphagnum-dominated bog, from 2002-2006. Flux residuals (simulated - observed) were positively correlated with measured water table for both gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) at the two fen sites for all models, and were positively correlated with water table at the bog site for the majority of models. Modeled diurnal cycles at fen sites agreed well with eddy covariance measurements overall. Eddy covariance GEP and ER were higher during dry periods than during wet periods, while model results predicted either the opposite relationship or no significant difference. At the bog site, eddy covariance GEP had no significant dependence on water table, while models predicted higher GEP during wet periods. All models significantly over-estimated GEP at the bog site, and all but one over-estimated ER at the bog site. Carbon cycle models in peatland-rich regions could be improved by incorporating better models or measurements of hydrology and by inhibiting GEP and ER rates under saturated conditions. Bogs and fens likely require distinct treatments in ecosystem models due to differences in nutrients, peat properties, and plant communities.

An Analysis of Turkey's PISA 2015 Results Using Two-Level Hierarchical Linear Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Atas, Dogu; Karadag, Özge

2017-01-01

In the field of education, most of the data collected are multi-level structured. Cities, city based schools, school based classes and finally students in the classrooms constitute a hierarchical structure. Hierarchical linear models give more accurate results compared to standard models when the data set has a structure going far as individuals,…

U.S. Department of Energy Reference Model Program RM1: Experimental Results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hill, Craig [Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Neary, Vincent Sinclair [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gunawan, Budi [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Guala, Michele [Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Sotiropoulos, Fotis [Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States)

2014-10-01

The Reference Model Project (RMP), sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Wind and Water Power Technologies Program within the Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (EERE), aims at expediting industry growth and efficiency by providing non-proprietary Reference Models (RM) of MHK technology designs as study objects for open-source research and development (Neary et al. 2014a,b). As part of this program, MHK turbine models were tested in a large open channel facility at the University of Minnesota’s St. Anthony Falls Laboratory (UMN-SAFL). Reference Model 1 (RM2) is a 1:40 geometric scale dual-rotor axial flow horizontal axis device with counter-rotating rotors, each with a rotor diameter d_T = 0.5m. Precise blade angular position and torque measurements were synchronized with three acoustic Doppler velocimeters (ADVs) aligned with each rotor and the midpoint for RM1. Flow conditions for each case were controlled such that depth, h = 1m, and volumetric flow rate, Q_w = 2.425m3s^-1, resulting in a hub height velocity of approximately U_hub = 1.05ms^-1 and blade chord length Reynolds numbers of R_ec ≈ 3.0x105. Vertical velocity profiles collected in the wake of each device from 1 to 10 rotor diameters are used to estimate the velocity recovery and turbulent characteristics in the wake, as well as the interaction of the counter-rotating rotor wakes. The development of this high resolution laboratory investigation provides a robust dataset that enables assessing turbulence performance models and their ability to accurately predict device performance metrics, including computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models that can be used to predict turbulent inflow environments, reproduce wake velocity deficit, recovery and higher order turbulent statistics, as well as device performance metrics.

U.S. Department of Energy Reference Model Program RM1: Experimental Results.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hill, Craig [Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Neary, Vincent Sinclair [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gunawan, Budi [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Guala, Michele [Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Sotiropoulos, Fotis [Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States)

2017-08-01

The Reference Model Project (RMP), sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Wind and Water Power Technologies Program within the Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (EERE), aims at expediting industry growth and efficiency by providing nonproprietary Reference Models (RM) of MHK technology designs as study objects for opensource research and development (Neary et al. 2014a,b). As part of this program, MHK turbine models were tested in a large open channel facility at the University of Minnesota’s St. Anthony Falls Laboratory (UMN-SAFL). Reference Model 1 (RM1) is a 1:40 geometric scale dual-rotor axial flow horizontal axis device with counter-rotating rotors, each with a rotor diameter dT = 0.5m. Precise blade angular position and torque measurements were synchronized with three acoustic Doppler velocimeters (ADVs) aligned with each rotor and the midpoint for RM1. Flow conditions for each case were controlled such that depth, h = 1m, and volumetric flow rate, Qw = 2.425m3s-1, resulting in a hub height velocity of approximately Uhub = 1.05ms-1 and blade chord length Reynolds numbers of Rec ≈ 3.0x105. Vertical velocity profiles collected in the wake of each device from 1 to 10 rotor diameters are used to estimate the velocity recovery and turbulent characteristics in the wake, as well as the interaction of the counter-rotating rotor wakes. The development of this high resolution laboratory investigation provides a robust dataset that enables assessing turbulence performance models and their ability to accurately predict device performance metrics, including computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models that can be used to predict turbulent inflow environments, reproduce wake velocity deficit, recovery and higher order turbulent statistics, as well as device performance metrics.

A complex-plane strategy for computing rotating polytropic models - Numerical results for strong and rapid differential rotation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geroyannis, V.S.

1990-01-01

In this paper, a numerical method, called complex-plane strategy, is implemented in the computation of polytropic models distorted by strong and rapid differential rotation. The differential rotation model results from a direct generalization of the classical model, in the framework of the complex-plane strategy; this generalization yields very strong differential rotation. Accordingly, the polytropic models assume extremely distorted interiors, while their boundaries are slightly distorted. For an accurate simulation of differential rotation, a versatile method, called multiple partition technique is developed and implemented. It is shown that the method remains reliable up to rotation states where other elaborate techniques fail to give accurate results. 11 refs

The European Integrated Tokamak Modelling (ITM) effort: achievements and first physics results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Falchetto, G.L.; Nardon, E.; Artaud, J.F.; Basiuk, V.; Huynh, Ph.; Imbeaux, F.; Coster, D.; Scott, B.D.; Coelho, R.; Alves, L.L.; Bizarro, João P.S.; Ferreira, J.; Figueiredo, A.; Figini, L.; Nowak, S.; Farina, D.; Kalupin, D.; Boulbe, C.; Faugeras, B.; Dinklage, A.

2014-01-01

A selection of achievements and first physics results are presented of the European Integrated Tokamak Modelling Task Force (EFDA ITM-TF) simulation framework, which aims to provide a standardized platform and an integrated modelling suite of validated numerical codes for the simulation and prediction of a complete plasma discharge of an arbitrary tokamak. The framework developed by the ITM-TF, based on a generic data structure including both simulated and experimental data, allows for the development of sophisticated integrated simulations (workflows) for physics application. The equilibrium reconstruction and linear magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability simulation chain was applied, in particular, to the analysis of the edge MHD stability of ASDEX Upgrade type-I ELMy H-mode discharges and ITER hybrid scenario, demonstrating the stabilizing effect of an increased Shafranov shift on edge modes. Interpretive simulations of a JET hybrid discharge were performed with two electromagnetic turbulence codes within ITM infrastructure showing the signature of trapped-electron assisted ITG turbulence. A successful benchmark among five EC beam/ray-tracing codes was performed in the ITM framework for an ITER inductive scenario for different launching conditions from the equatorial and upper launcher, showing good agreement of the computed absorbed power and driven current. Selected achievements and scientific workflow applications targeting key modelling topics and physics problems are also presented, showing the current status of the ITM-TF modelling suite. (paper)

Storm-time meridional flows: a comparison of CINDI observations and model results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Hairston

2014-06-01

Full Text Available During a large geomagnetic storm, the electric field from the polar ionosphere can expand far enough to affect the mid-latitude and equatorial electric fields. These changes in the equatorial zonal electric field, called the penetration field, will cause changes in the meridional ion flows that can be observed by radars and spacecraft. In general this E × B ion flow near the equator caused by the penetration field during undershielding conditions will be upward on the dayside and downward on the nightside of the Earth. Previous analysis of the equatorial meridional flows observed by CINDI instrument on the C/NOFS spacecraft during the 26 September 2011 storm showed that all of the response flows on the dayside were excess downward flows instead of the expected upward flows. These observed storm-time responses are compared to a prediction from a physics-based coupled model of thermosphere–ionosphere–inner-magnetosphere in an effort to explain these observations. The model results suggest that the equatorial downward flow could be attributed to a combined effect of the overshielding and disturbance dynamo processes. However, some discrepancy between the model and observation indicates a need for improving our understanding of how sensitive the equatorial electric field is to various model input parameters that describe the magnetosphere–ionosphere coupling processes.

Results of heater induced quenches on a 1-m SSC model dipole

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassenzahl, W.V.

1985-10-01

This report describes the results of a series of heater induced quenches on the 1-m long SSC model dipole D-12C-7 constructed at LBL. Test results of the following types are described: quench propagation velocities - axial; quench propagation velocities - transverse; and rate of temperature rise in the conductor. The primary purpose of these tests was to measure quench velocities at a variety of locations and for several currents/fields which can be used to refine the quench predictions for longer magnets. Because of limited data in the low field region of this magnet, it is recommended that it be retested with additional voltage taps. 20 figs., 6 tabs

Child Adjustment and Parent Functioning: Considering the Role of Child Driven Effects

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Ni; Ansari, Arya

2016-01-01

Based on 13,694 mother-child dyads from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Kindergarten Cohort (ECLS-K), this study examined the bidirectional relations between parental and child functioning from kindergarten through third grade. Results from the cross-lagged models demonstrated that child-driven effects co-occurred with parental effects and these effects were comparable in size. At the same time, however, results from the latent profile analysis revealed idiosyncratic patterns of parent and child functioning. Compared with children in the least optimal functioning profiles, those in the average and above average profiles elicited greater improvements in parents’ functioning over time. Although children characterized by poor academic performance at kindergarten appeared to precede parents characterized by harsh parenting at third grade, there was a threshold in the evolving strength of the overall child-driven effects. Taken together, the results from this study underscore the importance of considering reciprocal processes in the parent-child dynamic while also underscoring individual differences in these processes across the early to middle childhood years. PMID:26866838

Implementing a continuum of care model for older people - results from a Swedish case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Duner

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Introduction: There is a need for integrated care and smooth collaboration between care-providing organisations and professions to create a continuum of care for frail older people. However, collaboration between organisations and professions is often problematic. The aim of this study was to examine the process of implementing a new continuum of care model in a complex organisational context, and illuminate some of the challenges involved. The introduced model strived to connect three organisations responsible for delivering health and social care to older people: the regional hospital, primary health care and municipal eldercare.Methods: The actions of the actors involved in the process of implementing the model were understood to be shaped by the actors' understanding, commitment and ability. This article is based on 44 qualitative interviews performed on four occasions with 26 key actors at three organisational levels within these three organisations.Results and conclusions: The results point to the importance of paying regard to the different cultures of the organisations when implementing a new model. The role of upper management emerged as very important. Furthermore, to be accepted, the model has to be experienced as effectively dealing with real problems in the everyday practice of the actors in the organisations, from the bottom to the top.

Implementing a continuum of care model for older people - results from a Swedish case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Duner

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Introduction: There is a need for integrated care and smooth collaboration between care-providing organisations and professions to create a continuum of care for frail older people. However, collaboration between organisations and professions is often problematic. The aim of this study was to examine the process of implementing a new continuum of care model in a complex organisational context, and illuminate some of the challenges involved. The introduced model strived to connect three organisations responsible for delivering health and social care to older people: the regional hospital, primary health care and municipal eldercare. Methods: The actions of the actors involved in the process of implementing the model were understood to be shaped by the actors' understanding, commitment and ability. This article is based on 44 qualitative interviews performed on four occasions with 26 key actors at three organisational levels within these three organisations. Results and conclusions: The results point to the importance of paying regard to the different cultures of the organisations when implementing a new model. The role of upper management emerged as very important. Furthermore, to be accepted, the model has to be experienced as effectively dealing with real problems in the everyday practice of the actors in the organisations, from the bottom to the top.

A structural model for the flexural mechanics of nonwoven tissue engineering scaffolds.

Science.gov (United States)

Engelmayr, George C; Sacks, Michael S

2006-08-01

The development of methods to predict the strength and stiffness of biomaterials used in tissue engineering is critical for load-bearing applications in which the essential functional requirements are primarily mechanical. We previously quantified changes in the effective stiffness (E) of needled nonwoven polyglycolic acid (PGA) and poly-L-lactic acid (PLLA) scaffolds due to tissue formation and scaffold degradation under three-point bending. Toward predicting these changes, we present a structural model for E of a needled nonwoven scaffold in flexure. The model accounted for the number and orientation of fibers within a representative volume element of the scaffold demarcated by the needling process. The spring-like effective stiffness of the curved fibers was calculated using the sinusoidal fiber shapes. Structural and mechanical properties of PGA and PLLA fibers and PGA, PLLA, and 50:50 PGA/PLLA scaffolds were measured and compared with model predictions. To verify the general predictive capability, the predicted dependence of E on fiber diameter was compared with experimental measurements. Needled nonwoven scaffolds were found to exhibit distinct preferred (PD) and cross-preferred (XD) fiber directions, with an E ratio (PD/XD) of approximately 3:1. The good agreement between the predicted and experimental dependence of E on fiber diameter (R2 = 0.987) suggests that the structural model can be used to design scaffolds with E values more similar to native soft tissues. A comparison with previous results for cell-seeded scaffolds (Engelmayr, G. C., Jr., et al., 2005, Biomaterials, 26(2), pp. 175-187) suggests, for the first time, that the primary mechanical effect of collagen deposition is an increase in the number of fiber-fiber bond points yielding effectively stiffer scaffold fibers. This finding indicated that the effects of tissue deposition on needled nonwoven scaffold mechanics do not follow a rule-of-mixtures behavior. These important results underscore

Environmental injustice and flood risk: A conceptual model and case comparison of metropolitan Miami and Houston, USA.

Science.gov (United States)

Collins, Timothy W; Grineski, Sara E; Chakraborty, Jayajit

2018-02-01

This article outlines a conceptual model and comparatively applies it to results from environmental justice (EJ) studies of flood risk in the Miami, Florida, and Houston, Texas, metropolitan areas. In contrast to most EJ studies of air pollution, which have found that socially-vulnerable groups experience disproportionate risk, distributive EJ studies of flooding reveal inconsistent findings regarding the relationship between social vulnerability and flood exposure. Counterintuitively (from a conventional EJ perspective), some pre-flood EJ studies have found that socially-advantaged people experience the highest residential exposure to flood risks. To integrate those anomalous findings within an EJ perspective, our conceptual model focuses on (1) the differential capacities of social groups to deploy/access protective resources for reducing the threat of loss, even while they reside amid flood-prone environments, and (2) both flood hazards and water-based benefits. Application of this model in Miami reveals that environmental injustices materialize as socially-privileged groups expose themselves to residential flood risks by seeking coastal amenities, as the costs of mitigating risks are conveyed to the broader public; in the process, socially-vulnerable residents are relegated to areas with air pollution and/or inland flood risks, where they experience constrained access to protective resources and coastal amenities. Findings from Houston better align with conventional EJ expectations-with flood zones disproportionately inhabited by socially-vulnerable people-because many coastal lands there are used by petrochemical industries, which produce major residential-environmental disamenities . Results underscore the need to consider protective resources and locational benefits in future empirical research on the EJ implications of flood hazards.

Simulating Pacific Northwest Forest Response to Climate Change: How We Made Model Results Useful for Vulnerability Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, J. B.; Kerns, B. K.; Halofsky, J.

2014-12-01

GCM-based climate projections and downscaled climate data proliferate, and there are many climate-aware vegetation models in use by researchers. Yet application of fine-scale DGVM based simulation output in national forest vulnerability assessments is not common, because there are technical, administrative and social barriers for their use by managers and policy makers. As part of a science-management climate change adaptation partnership, we performed simulations of vegetation response to climate change for four national forests in the Blue Mountains of Oregon using the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) for use in vulnerability assessments. Our simulation results under business-as-usual scenarios suggest a starkly different future forest conditions for three out of the four national forests in the study area, making their adoption by forest managers a potential challenge. However, using DGVM output to structure discussion of potential vegetation changes provides a suitable framework to discuss the dynamic nature of vegetation change compared to using more commonly available model output (e.g. species distribution models). From the onset, we planned and coordinated our work with national forest managers to maximize the utility and the consideration of the simulation results in planning. Key lessons from this collaboration were: (1) structured and strategic selection of a small number climate change scenarios that capture the range of variability in future conditions simplified results; (2) collecting and integrating data from managers for use in simulations increased support and interest in applying output; (3) a structured, regionally focused, and hierarchical calibration of the DGVM produced well-validated results; (4) simple approaches to quantifying uncertainty in simulation results facilitated communication; and (5) interpretation of model results in a holistic context in relation to multiple lines of evidence produced balanced guidance. This latest

Intracochlear pressure measurements in scala media inform models of cochlear mechanics

Science.gov (United States)

Kale, Sushrut; Olson, Elizabeth S.

2015-12-01

In the classic view of cochlear mechanics, the cochlea is comprised of two identical fluid chambers separated by the cochlear partition (CP). In this view the traveling wave pressures in the two chambers mirror each other; they are equal in magnitude and opposite in phase. A fast pressure mode adds approximately uniformly. More recent models of cochlear mechanics take into account the structural complexity of the CP and the resulting additional mechanical modes would lead to distinct (non-symmetric) patterns of pressure and motion on the two sides of the CP. However, there was little to no physiological data that explored these predictions. To this aim, we measured intracochlear fluid pressure in scala media (SM), including measurements close to the sensory tissue, using miniaturized pressure sensors (˜ 80 μm outer diameter). Measurements were made in-vivo from the basal cochlear turn in gerbils. SM pressure was measured at two longitudinal locations in different preparations. In a subset of the experiments SM and ST (scala tympani) pressures were measured at the same longitudinal location. Traveling wave pressures were observed in both SM and ST, and showed the relative phase predicted by the classical theory. In addition, SM pressure showed spatial variations that had not been observed in ST, which points to a relatively complex CP motion on the SM side. These data both underscore the first-order validity of the classic cochlear traveling wave model, and open a new view to CP mechanics.

An Intercomparison of Model Predictions for an Urban Contamination Resulting from the Explosion of a Radiological Dispersal Device

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hwang, Won Tae; Jeong, Hyo Jun; Kim, Eun Han; Han, Moon Hee [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2009-03-15

The METRO-K is a model for a radiological dose assessment due to a radioactive contamination in the Korean urban environment. The model has been taken part in the Urban Remediation Working Group within the IAEA's (International Atomic Energy Agency) EMRAS (Environmental Modeling for Radiation Safety) program. The Working Croup designed for the intercomparison of radioactive contamination to be resulted from the explosion of a radiological dispersal device in a hypothetical city. This paper dealt intensively with a part among a lot of predictive results which had been performed in the EMRAS program. The predictive results of three different models (METRO-K, RESRAD-RDD, CPHR) were submitted to the Working Group. The gap of predictive results was due to the difference of mathematical modeling approaches, parameter values, understanding of assessors. Even if final results (for example, dose rates from contaminated surfaces which might affect to a receptor) are similar, the understanding on the contribution of contaminated surfaces showed a great difference. Judging from the authors, it is due to the lack of understanding and information on radioactive terrors as well as the social and cultural gaps which assessors have been experienced. Therefore, it can be known that the experience of assessors and their subjective judgements might be important factors to get reliable results. If the acquisition of a little additional information is possible, it was identified that the METRO-K might be a useful tool for decision support against contamination resulting from radioactive terrors by improving the existing model.

An Intercomparison of Model Predictions for an Urban Contamination Resulting from the Explosion of a Radiological Dispersal Device

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hwang, Won Tae; Jeong, Hyo Jun; Kim, Eun Han; Han, Moon Hee

2009-01-01

The METRO-K is a model for a radiological dose assessment due to a radioactive contamination in the Korean urban environment. The model has been taken part in the Urban Remediation Working Group within the IAEA's (International Atomic Energy Agency) EMRAS (Environmental Modeling for Radiation Safety) program. The Working Croup designed for the intercomparison of radioactive contamination to be resulted from the explosion of a radiological dispersal device in a hypothetical city. This paper dealt intensively with a part among a lot of predictive results which had been performed in the EMRAS program. The predictive results of three different models (METRO-K, RESRAD-RDD, CPHR) were submitted to the Working Group. The gap of predictive results was due to the difference of mathematical modeling approaches, parameter values, understanding of assessors. Even if final results (for example, dose rates from contaminated surfaces which might affect to a receptor) are similar, the understanding on the contribution of contaminated surfaces showed a great difference. Judging from the authors, it is due to the lack of understanding and information on radioactive terrors as well as the social and cultural gaps which assessors have been experienced. Therefore, it can be known that the experience of assessors and their subjective judgements might be important factors to get reliable results. If the acquisition of a little additional information is possible, it was identified that the METRO-K might be a useful tool for decision support against contamination resulting from radioactive terrors by improving the existing model.

GENERAL APROACH TO MODELING NONLINEAR AMPLITUDE AND FREQUENCY DEPENDENT HYSTERESIS EFFECTS BASED ON EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher Heine

2014-08-01

Full Text Available A detailed description of the rubber parts’ properties is gaining in importance in the current simulation models of multi-body simulation. One application example is a multi-body simulation of the washing machine movement. Inside the washing machine, there are different force transmission elements, which consist completely or partly of rubber. Rubber parts or, generally, elastomers usually have amplitude-dependant and frequency-dependent force transmission properties. Rheological models are used to describe these properties. A method for characterization of the amplitude and frequency dependence of such a rheological model is presented within this paper. Within this method, the used rheological model can be reduced or expanded in order to illustrate various non-linear effects. An original result is given with the automated parameter identification. It is fully implemented in Matlab. Such identified rheological models are intended for subsequent implementation in a multi-body model. This allows a significant enhancement of the overall model quality.

Results of an interactively coupled atmospheric chemistry – general circulation model: Comparison with observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Hein

Full Text Available The coupled climate-chemistry model ECHAM4.L39(DLR/CHEM is presented which enables a simultaneous treatment of meteorology and atmospheric chemistry and their feedbacks. This is the first model which interactively combines a general circulation model with a chemical model, employing most of the important reactions and species necessary to describe the stratospheric and upper tropospheric ozone chemistry, and which is computationally fast enough to allow long-term integrations with currently available computer resources. This is possible as the model time-step used for the chemistry can be chosen as large as the integration time-step for the dynamics. Vertically the atmosphere is discretized by 39 levels from the surface up to the top layer which is centred at 10 hPa, with a relatively high vertical resolution of approximately 700 m near the extra-tropical tropopause. We present the results of a control simulation representing recent conditions (1990 and compare it to available observations. The focus is on investigations of stratospheric dynamics and chemistry relevant to describe the stratospheric ozone layer. ECHAM4.L39(DLR/CHEM reproduces main features of stratospheric dynamics in the arctic vortex region, including stratospheric warming events. This constitutes a major improvement compared to earlier model versions. However, apparent shortcomings in Antarctic circulation and temperatures persist. The seasonal and interannual variability of the ozone layer is simulated in accordance with observations. Activation and deactivation of chlorine in the polar stratospheric vortices and their inter-hemispheric differences are reproduced. Considering methane oxidation as part of the dynamic-chemistry feedback results in an improved representation of the spatial distribution of stratospheric water vapour concentrations. The current model constitutes a powerful tool to investigate, for instance, the combined direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic

Controls/CFD Interdisciplinary Research Software Generates Low-Order Linear Models for Control Design From Steady-State CFD Results

Science.gov (United States)

Melcher, Kevin J.

1997-01-01

The NASA Lewis Research Center is developing analytical methods and software tools to create a bridge between the controls and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) disciplines. Traditionally, control design engineers have used coarse nonlinear simulations to generate information for the design of new propulsion system controls. However, such traditional methods are not adequate for modeling the propulsion systems of complex, high-speed vehicles like the High Speed Civil Transport. To properly model the relevant flow physics of high-speed propulsion systems, one must use simulations based on CFD methods. Such CFD simulations have become useful tools for engineers that are designing propulsion system components. The analysis techniques and software being developed as part of this effort are an attempt to evolve CFD into a useful tool for control design as well. One major aspect of this research is the generation of linear models from steady-state CFD results. CFD simulations, often used during the design of high-speed inlets, yield high resolution operating point data. Under a NASA grant, the University of Akron has developed analytical techniques and software tools that use these data to generate linear models for control design. The resulting linear models have the same number of states as the original CFD simulation, so they are still very large and computationally cumbersome. Model reduction techniques have been successfully applied to reduce these large linear models by several orders of magnitude without significantly changing the dynamic response. The result is an accurate, easy to use, low-order linear model that takes less time to generate than those generated by traditional means. The development of methods for generating low-order linear models from steady-state CFD is most complete at the one-dimensional level, where software is available to generate models with different kinds of input and output variables. One-dimensional methods have been extended

Financial analysis and forecasting of the results of small businesses performance based on regression model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Svetlana O. Musienko

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Objective to develop the economicmathematical model of the dependence of revenue on other balance sheet items taking into account the sectoral affiliation of the companies. Methods using comparative analysis the article studies the existing approaches to the construction of the company management models. Applying the regression analysis and the least squares method which is widely used for financial management of enterprises in Russia and abroad the author builds a model of the dependence of revenue on other balance sheet items taking into account the sectoral affiliation of the companies which can be used in the financial analysis and prediction of small enterprisesrsquo performance. Results the article states the need to identify factors affecting the financial management efficiency. The author analyzed scientific research and revealed the lack of comprehensive studies on the methodology for assessing the small enterprisesrsquo management while the methods used for large companies are not always suitable for the task. The systematized approaches of various authors to the formation of regression models describe the influence of certain factors on the company activity. It is revealed that the resulting indicators in the studies were revenue profit or the company relative profitability. The main drawback of most models is the mathematical not economic approach to the definition of the dependent and independent variables. Basing on the analysis it was determined that the most correct is the model of dependence between revenues and total assets of the company using the decimal logarithm. The model was built using data on the activities of the 507 small businesses operating in three spheres of economic activity. Using the presented model it was proved that there is direct dependence between the sales proceeds and the main items of the asset balance as well as differences in the degree of this effect depending on the economic activity of small

Lynch syndrome patients' views of and preferences for return of results following whole exome sequencing.

Science.gov (United States)

Hitch, Kelly; Joseph, Galen; Guiltinan, Jenna; Kianmahd, Jessica; Youngblom, Janey; Blanco, Amie

2014-08-01

Whole exome sequencing (WES) uses next generation sequencing technology to provide information on nearly all functional, protein-coding regions in an individual's genome. Due to the vast amount of information and incidental findings that can be generated from this technology, patient preferences must be investigated to help clinicians consent and return results to patients. Patients (n = 19) who were previously clinically diagnosed with Lynch syndrome, but received uninformative negative Lynch syndrome genetic results through traditional molecular testing methods participated in semi-structured interviews after WES testing but before return of results to explore their views of WES and preferences for return of results. Analyses of interview results found that nearly all participants believed that the benefits of receiving all possible results generated from WES outweighed the undesirable effects. The majority of participants conveyed that relative to coping with a cancer diagnosis, information generated from WES would be manageable. Importantly, participants' experience with Lynch syndrome influenced their notions of genetic determinism, tolerance for uncertain results, and family communication plans. Participants would prefer to receive WES results in person from a genetic counselor or medical geneticist so that an expert could help explain the meaning and implications of the potentially large quantity and range of complicated results. These results underscore the need to study various populations with regard to the clinical use of WES in order to effectively and empathetically communicate the possible implications of this new technology and return results.

Microstructure evolution during homogenization of Al–Mn–Fe–Si alloys: Modeling and experimental results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du, Q.; Poole, W.J.; Wells, M.A.; Parson, N.C.

2013-01-01

Microstructure evolution during the homogenization heat treatment of Al–Mn–Fe–Si, or AA3xxx, alloys has been investigated using a combination of modeling and experimental studies. The model is fully coupled to CALculation PHAse Diagram (CALPHAD) software and has explicitly taken into account the two different length scales for diffusion encountered in modeling the homogenization process. The model is able to predict the evolution of all the important microstructural features during homogenization, including the inhomogeneous spatial distribution of dispersoids and alloying elements in solution, the dispersoid number density and the size distribution, and the type and fraction of intergranular constituent particles. Experiments were conducted using four direct chill (DC) cast AA3xxx alloys subjected to various homogenization treatments. The resulting microstructures were then characterized using a range of characterization techniques, including optical and electron microscopy, electron micro probe analysis, field emission gun scanning electron microscopy, and electrical resistivity measurements. The model predictions have been compared with the experimental measurements to validate the model. Further, it has been demonstrated that the validated model is able to predict the effects of alloying elements (e.g. Si and Mn) on microstructure evolution. It is concluded that the model provides a time and cost effective tool in optimizing and designing industrial AA3xxx alloy chemistries and homogenization heat treatments

Friction torque of wind-turbine pitch bearings – comparison of experimental results with available models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Stammler

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Pitch bearings of wind turbines are large, grease-lubricated rolling bearings that connect the rotor blades with the rotor hub. They are used to turn the rotor blades to control the power output and/or structural loads of the turbine. Common actuators turning the blades are hydraulic cylinders or electrical motor–gearbox combinations. In order to design pitch actuator systems that are able to turn the blades reliably without imposing an excessive power demand, it is necessary to predict the friction torque of pitch bearings for different operating conditions. In this paper, the results of torque measurements under load are presented and compared to results obtained using different calculation models. The results of this comparison indicate the various sources of friction that should be taken into account for a reliable calculation model.

Performances of the snow accumulation melting model SAMM: results in the Northern Apennines test area

Science.gov (United States)

Lagomarsino, Daniela; Martelloni, Gianluca; Segoni, Samuele; Catani, Filippo; Fanti, Riccardo

2013-04-01

In this work we propose a snow accumulation-melting model (SAMM) to forecast the snowpack height and we compare the results with a simple temperature index model and an improved version of the latter.For this purpose we used rainfall, temperature and snowpack thickness 5-years data series from 7 weather stations in the Northern Apennines (Emilia Romagna Region, Italy). SAMM is based on two modules modelling the snow accumulation and the snowmelt processes. Each module is composed by two equations: a mass conservation equation is solved to model snowpack thickness and an empirical equation is used for the snow density. The processes linked to the accumulation/depletion of the snowpack (e.g. compression of the snowpack due to newly fallen snow and effects of rainfall) are modelled identifying limiting and inhibitory factors according to a kinetic approach. The model depends on 13 empirical parameters, whose optimal values were defined with an optimization algorithm (simplex flexible) using calibration measures of snowpack thickness. From an operational point of view, SAMM uses as input data only temperature and rainfall measurements, bringing the additional advantage of a relatively easy implementation. In order to verify the improvement of SAMM with respect to a temperature-index model, the latter was applied considering, for the amount of snow melt, the following equation: M = fm(T-T0), where M is hourly melt, fm is the melting factor and T0 is a threshold temperature. In this case the calculation of the depth of the snowpack requires the use of 3 parameters: fm, T0 and ?0 (the mean density of the snowpack). We also performed a simulation by replacing the SAMM melting module with the above equation and leaving unchanged the accumulation module: in this way we obtained a model with 9 parameters. The simulations results suggest that any further extension of the simple temperature index model brings some improvements with a consequent decrease of the mean error

A Compact Synchronous Cellular Model of Nonlinear Calcium Dynamics: Simulation and FPGA Synthesis Results.

Science.gov (United States)

Soleimani, Hamid; Drakakis, Emmanuel M

2017-06-01

Recent studies have demonstrated that calcium is a widespread intracellular ion that controls a wide range of temporal dynamics in the mammalian body. The simulation and validation of such studies using experimental data would benefit from a fast large scale simulation and modelling tool. This paper presents a compact and fully reconfigurable cellular calcium model capable of mimicking Hopf bifurcation phenomenon and various nonlinear responses of the biological calcium dynamics. The proposed cellular model is synthesized on a digital platform for a single unit and a network model. Hardware synthesis, physical implementation on FPGA, and theoretical analysis confirm that the proposed cellular model can mimic the biological calcium behaviors with considerably low hardware overhead. The approach has the potential to speed up large-scale simulations of slow intracellular dynamics by sharing more cellular units in real-time. To this end, various networks constructed by pipelining 10 k to 40 k cellular calcium units are compared with an equivalent simulation run on a standard PC workstation. Results show that the cellular hardware model is, on average, 83 times faster than the CPU version.

Experimental and Numerical Modeling of Fluid Flow Processes in Continuous Casting: Results from the LIMMCAST-Project

Science.gov (United States)

Timmel, K.; Kratzsch, C.; Asad, A.; Schurmann, D.; Schwarze, R.; Eckert, S.

2017-07-01

The present paper reports about numerical simulations and model experiments concerned with the fluid flow in the continuous casting process of steel. This work was carried out in the LIMMCAST project in the framework of the Helmholtz alliance LIMTECH. A brief description of the LIMMCAST facilities used for the experimental modeling at HZDR is given here. Ultrasonic and inductive techniques and the X-ray radioscopy were employed for flow measurements or visualizations of two-phase flow regimes occurring in the submerged entry nozzle and the mold. Corresponding numerical simulations were performed at TUBAF taking into account the dimensions and properties of the model experiments. Numerical models were successfully validated using the experimental data base. The reasonable and in many cases excellent agreement of numerical with experimental data allows to extrapolate the models to real casting configurations. Exemplary results will be presented here showing the effect of electromagnetic brakes or electromagnetic stirrers on the flow in the mold or illustrating the properties of two-phase flows resulting from an Ar injection through the stopper rod.

The design, results and future development of the National Energy Strategy Environmental Analysis Model (NESEAM)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisher, R.E.; Boyd, G.A.; Breed, W.S.

1991-01-01

The National Energy Strategy Environmental Model (NESEAM) has been developed to project emissions for the National Energy Strategy (NES). Two scenarios were evaluated for the NES, a Current Policy Base Case and a NES Action Case. The results from the NES Actions Case project much lower emissions than the Current Policy Base Case. Future enhancements to NESEAM will focus on fuel cycle analysis, including future technologies and additional pollutants to model. NESEAM's flexibility will allow it to model other future legislative issues. 7 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

Probabilistic Modeling of Updating Epistemic Uncertainty In Pile Capacity Prediction With a Single Failure Test Result

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Indra Djati Sidi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The model error N has been introduced to denote the discrepancy between measured and predicted capacity of pile foundation. This model error is recognized as epistemic uncertainty in pile capacity prediction. The statistics of N have been evaluated based on data gathered from various sites and may be considered only as a eneral-error trend in capacity prediction, providing crude estimates of the model error in the absence of more specific data from the site. The results of even a single load test to failure, should provide direct evidence of the pile capacity at a given site. Bayes theorem has been used as a rational basis for combining new data with previous data to revise assessment of uncertainty and reliability. This study is devoted to the development of procedures for updating model error (N, and subsequently the predicted pile capacity with a results of single failure test.

Soil gas and radon entry into a simple test structure: Comparison of experimental and modelling results

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, C.E.; Søgaard-Hansen, J.; Majborn, B.

1994-01-01

A radon test structure has been established at a field site at Riso National Laboratory. Measurements have been made of soil gas entry rates, pressure couplings and radon depletion. The experimental results have been compared with results obtained from measured soil parameters and a two......-dimensional steady-state numerical model of Darcy flow and combined diffusive and advective transport of radon. For most probe locations, the calculated values of the pressure couplings and the radon depletion agree well with the measured values, thus verifying important elements of the Darcy flow approximation......, and the ability of the model to treat combined diffusive and advective transport of radon. However, the model gives an underestimation of the soil gas entry rate. Even if it is assumed that the soil has a permeability equal to the highest of the measured values, the model underestimates the soil gas entry rate...

Vertical Instability in EAST: Comparison of Model Predictions with Experimental Results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qian Jinping; Wan Baonian; Shen Biao; Xiao Bingjia; Sun Youwen; Shi Yuejiang; Lin Shiyao; Li Jiangang; Gong Xianzu

2008-01-01

Growth rates of the axisymmetric mode in elongated plasmas in the experimental advanced superconducting tokamak (EAST) are measured with zero feedback gains and then compared with numerically calculated growth rates for the reconstructed shapes. The comparison is made after loss of vertical position control. The open-loop growth rates were scanned with the number of vessel eigenmodes, which up to 20 is enough to make the growth rates settled. The agreement between the growth rates measured experimentally and the growth rates determined numerically is good. The results show that a linear RZIP model is essentially good enough for the vertical position feedback control.

Assessment of Energy Removal Impacts on Physical Systems: Hydrodynamic Model Domain Expansion and Refinement, and Online Dissemination of Model Results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Wang, Taiping

2010-01-01

In this report we describe the (1) the expansion of the PNNL hydrodynamic model domain to include the continental shelf along the coasts of Washington, Oregon, and Vancouver Island; and (2) the approach and progress in developing the online/Internet disseminations of model results and outreach efforts in support of the Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OPF). Submittal of this report completes the work on Task 2.1.2, Effects of Physical Systems, Subtask 2.1.2.1, Hydrodynamics, for fiscal year 2010 of the Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy project.

Health and budget impact of combined HIV prevention - first results of the BELHIVPREV model.

Science.gov (United States)

Vermeersch, Sebastian; Callens, Steven; De Wit, Stéphane; Goffard, Jean-Christophe; Laga, Marie; Van Beckhoven, Dominique; Annemans, Lieven

2018-02-01

We developed a pragmatic modelling approach to estimate the impact of treatment as prevention (TasP); outreach testing strategies; and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) on the epidemiology of HIV and its associated pharmaceutical expenses. Our model estimates the incremental health (in terms of new HIV diagnoses) and budget impact of two prevention scenarios (outreach+TasP and outreach+TasP+PrEP) against a 'no additional prevention' scenario. Model parameters were estimated from reported Belgian epidemiology and literature data. The analysis was performed from a healthcare payer perspective with a 15-year-time horizon. It considers subpopulation differences, HIV infections diagnosed in Belgium having occurred prior to migration, and the effects of an ageing HIV population. Without additional prevention measures, the annual number of new HIV diagnoses rises to over 1350 new diagnoses in 2030 as compared to baseline, resulting in a budget expenditure of €260.5 million. Implementation of outreach+TasP and outreach+TasP+PrEP results in a decrease in the number of new HIV diagnoses to 865 and 663 per year, respectively. Respective budget impacts decrease by €20.6 million and €33.7 million. Foregoing additional investments in prevention is not an option. An approach combining TasP, outreach and PrEP is most effective in reducing the number of new HIV diagnoses and the HIV treatment budget. Our model is the first pragmatic HIV model in Belgium estimating the consequences of a combined preventive approach on the HIV epidemiology and its economic burden assuming other prevention efforts such as condom use and harm reduction strategies remain the same.

Predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems: II. Illustrative application to reactor physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cacuci, Dan Gabriel; Badea, Madalina Corina

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We applied the PMCMPS methodology to a paradigm neutron diffusion model. • We underscore the main steps in applying PMCMPS to treat very large coupled systems. • PMCMPS reduces the uncertainties in the optimally predicted responses and model parameters. • PMCMPS is for sequentially treating coupled systems that cannot be treated simultaneously. - Abstract: This work presents paradigm applications to reactor physics of the innovative mathematical methodology for “predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems (PMCMPS)” developed by Cacuci (2014). This methodology enables the assimilation of experimental and computational information and computes optimally predicted responses and model parameters with reduced predicted uncertainties, taking fully into account the coupling terms between the multi-physics systems, but using only the computational resources that would be needed to perform predictive modeling on each system separately. The paradigm examples presented in this work are based on a simple neutron diffusion model, chosen so as to enable closed-form solutions with clear physical interpretations. These paradigm examples also illustrate the computational efficiency of the PMCMPS, which enables the assimilation of additional experimental information, with a minimal increase in computational resources, to reduce the uncertainties in predicted responses and best-estimate values for uncertain model parameters, thus illustrating how very large systems can be treated without loss of information in a sequential rather than simultaneous manner

Comparison of results of experimental research with numerical calculations of a model one-sided seal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joachimiak Damian

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Paper presents the results of experimental and numerical research of a model segment of a labyrinth seal for a different wear level. The analysis covers the extent of leakage and distribution of static pressure in the seal chambers and the planes upstream and downstream of the segment. The measurement data have been compared with the results of numerical calculations obtained using commercial software. Based on the flow conditions occurring in the area subjected to calculations, the size of the mesh defined by parameter y+ has been analyzed and the selection of the turbulence model has been described. The numerical calculations were based on the measurable thermodynamic parameters in the seal segments of steam turbines. The work contains a comparison of the mass flow and distribution of static pressure in the seal chambers obtained during the measurement and calculated numerically in a model segment of the seal of different level of wear.

Oxidation of hazardous waste in supercritical water: A comparison of modeling and experimental results for methanol destruction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Butler, P.B.; Bergan, N.E.; Bramlette, T.T.; Pitz, W.J.; Westbrook, C.K.

1991-01-01

Recent experiments at Sandia National Laboratories conducted in conjunction with MODEC Corporation have demonstrated successful clean- up of contaminated water in a supercritical water reactor. These experiments targeted wastes of interest to Department of Energy production facilities. In this paper we present modeling and experimental results for a surrogate waste containing 98% water, 2% methanol, and parts per million of chlorinated hydrocarbons and laser dyes. Our initial modeling results consider only methanol and water. Experimental data are available for inlet and outlet conditions and axial temperature profiles along the outside reactor wall. The purpose of our model is to study the chemical and physical processes inside the reactor. We are particularly interested in the parameters that control the location of the reaction zone. The laboratory-scale reactor operates at 25 MPa., between 300 K and 900 K; it is modeled as a plug-flow reactor with a specified temperature profile. We use Chemkin Real-Gas to calculate mixture density, with the Peng-Robinson equation of state. The elementary reaction set for methanol oxidation and reactions of other C 1 and C 2 hydrocarbons is based on previous models for gas-phase kinetics. Results from our calculations show that the methanol is 99.9% destroyed at 1/3 the total reactor length. Although we were not able to measure composition of the fluid inside the experimental reactor, this prediction occurs near the location of the highest reactor temperature. This indicates that the chemical reaction is triggered by thermal effects, not kinetic rates. Results from ideal-gas calculations show nearly identical chemical profiles inside the reactor in dimensionless distance. However, reactor residence times are overpredicted by nearly 150% using an ideal-gas assumption. Our results indicate that this oxidation process can be successfully modeled using gas-phase chemical mechanisms. 23 refs., 8 figs

Numerical models: Detailing and simulation techniques aimed at comparison with experimental data, support to test result interpretation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin Chiwen

2001-01-01

This part of the presentation discusses the modelling details required and the simulation techniques available for analyses, facilitating the comparison with the experimental data and providing support for interpretation of the test results. It is organised to cover the following topics: analysis inputs; basic modelling requirements for reactor coolant system; method applicable for reactor cooling system; consideration of damping values and integration time steps; typical analytic models used for analysis of reactor pressure vessel and internals; hydrodynamic mass and fluid damping for the internal analysis; impact elements for fuel analysis; and PEI theorem and its applications. The intention of these topics is to identify the key parameters associated with models of analysis and analytical methods. This should provide proper basis for useful comparison with the test results

Recent Result from E821 Experiment on Muon g-2 and Unconstrained Minimal Supersymemtric Standard Model

CERN Document Server

Komine, S; Yamaguchi, M; Komine, Shinji; Moroi, Takeo; Yamaguchi, Masahiro

2001-01-01

Recently, the E821 experiment at the Brookhaven National Laboratory announced their latest result of their muon g-2 measurement which is about 2.6-\\sigma away from the standard model prediction. Taking this result seriously, we examine the possibility to explain this discrepancy by the supersymmetric contribution. Our analysis is performed in the framework of the unconstrained supersymmetric standard model which has free seven parameters relevant to muon g-2. We found that, in the case of large \\tan\\beta, sparticle masses are allowed to be large in the region where the SUSY contribution to the muon g-2 is large enough, and hence the conventional SUSY search may fail even at the LHC. On the contrary, to explain the discrepancy in the case of small \\tan\\beta, we found that (i) sleptons and SU(2)_L gauginos should be light, and (ii) negative search for the Higgs boson severely constrains the model in the framework of the mSUGRA and gauge-mediated model.

Modelling the effects of phase change materials on the energy use in buildings. Results of Experiments and System Dynamics Modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prins, J.

2012-02-15

The current era is in need for more and more sustainable energy solutions. Phase Change Materials (PCM's) are a solution for a more sustainable build environment because they can help to reduce the energy use of buildings during heating and cooling of the indoor air. This paper presents the results of recent experiments that have been executed with test boxes. In addition a System Dynamics model has been developed to find out how PCM's can be used efficiently without testing in reality. The first experiment, in which PCM's were applied in a concrete floor, shows a reduction of peak temperatures with 4C {+-} 0.7C on maximum temperatures and over 1.5C {+-} 0.7C on minimum temperatures during warm periods. The model confirmed these findings, although the predicted reductions were slightly. During the second experiment more PCM's were applied by mounting them into the walls using gypsum plasterboard to increase the latent heat capacity. Remarkably, both the experimental set-up as the model showed that the increase of PCM's (of almost 98%) causes hardly any difference compared to the first situation. Adapting the exterior in a way to absorb more solar energy, increases the average indoor temperature but decreases the reduction of peak temperatures. Again the model confirmed these findings of the experiment. These results show that the effect of PCM's varies on different climatological contexts and with different construction components physics. This means no straight forward advice on the use of PCM's for a building design can be given. The solution for this problem is provided by the model, showing that the effects of PCM's can be modelled in order to use PCM's in an effective way in different climatological contexts and with different characteristics of construction components. The research shows that a simple model is already capable of predicting PCM performance in test boxes with reasonable accuracy. Therefore it can be

Modelling the Impact of Life on Continental Growth - Mechanisms and Results

Science.gov (United States)

Höning, D.; Spohn, T.

2013-12-01

The complexity of planetary evolution increases with the number of interacting reservoirs. On Earth, even the biosphere is speculated to interact with the interior. It has been argued (e.g., Rosing et al. 2006; Sleep et al, 2012) that the formation of continents could be a consequence of bioactivity harvesting solar energy through photosynthesis to help build the continents and that the mantle should carry a chemical biosignature. Through plate tectonics, the surface biosphere can impact deep subduction zone processes and the interior of the Earth. Subducted sediments are particularly important, because they influence the Earth's interior in several ways, and in turn are strongly influenced by the Earth's biosphere. In our model, we use the assumption that a thick sedimentary layer of low permeability on top of the subducting oceanic crust, caused by a biologically enhanced weathering rate, can suppress shallow dewatering. This in turn leads to greater availability of water in the source region of andesitic partial melt, resulting in an enhanced rate of continental production and regassing rate into the mantle. Our model includes (i) mantle convection, (ii) continental erosion and production, and (iii) mantle water degassing at mid-ocean ridges and regassing at subduction zones. The mantle viscosity of our model depends on (i) the mantle water concentration and (ii) the mantle temperature, whose time dependency is given by radioactive decay of isotopes in the Earth's mantle. Boundary layer theory yields the speed of convection and the water outgassing rate of the Earth's mantle. Our results indicate that present day values of continental surface area and water content of the Earth's mantle represent an attractor in a phase plane spanned by both parameters. We show that the biologic enhancement of the continental erosion rate is important for the system to reach this fixed point. An abiotic Earth tends to reach an alternative stable fixed point with a smaller

Entrepreneurial Women in Radiology: Role Models of Success.

Science.gov (United States)

Anzai, Yoshimi; Meltzer, Carolyn C; DeStigter, Kristen K; Destounis, Stamatia; Pawley, Barbara K; Oates, M Elizabeth

2016-11-01

Radiology is undeniably male dominated. Alongside surgery and orthopedic surgery, academic radiology ranks near the bottom in having the lowest proportion of full-time female faculty members. Despite many efforts to recruit talented women, the pipeline entering the radiologic disciplines continues to flow at a trickle. One factor is the relative lack of role models for female medical students. Entrepreneurial women in radiology can lead the field with their innovation and creativity, courage, and commitment. In this article, the authors highlight two entrepreneurial female radiologists who shared their success stories at the American Association for Women Radiologists' session at the 2015 ACR annual meeting. Their successes underscore the potential for such women to serve as role models to female medical students and even college undergraduates. Despite the gender gap in radiology, the field has yielded some exceptional women who can take on challenges, overcome barriers and assume risks, create strategies and processes to operationalize their visions, secure funding, and expand their enterprises to make sustainable impacts both at home and abroad. As we move toward more patient- and family-centered care models and become increasingly visible to diverse populations, there is no better time for female leaders in radiology to inspire the next generation to join our essential and rewarding specialty. Copyright © 2016 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ignalina NPP Safety Analysis: Models and Results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uspuras, E.

1999-01-01

Research directions, linked to safety assessment of the Ignalina NPP, of the scientific safety analysis group are presented: Thermal-hydraulic analysis of accidents and operational transients; Thermal-hydraulic assessment of Ignalina NPP Accident Localization System and other compartments; Structural analysis of plant components, piping and other parts of Main Circulation Circuit; Assessment of RBMK-1500 reactor core and other. Models and main works carried out last year are described. (author)

Some Results On The Modelling Of TSS Manufacturing Lines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viorel MÎNZU

2000-12-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with the modelling of a particular class of manufacturing lines, governed by a decentralised control strategy so that they balance themselves. Such lines are known as “bucket brigades” and also as “TSS lines”, after their first implementation, at Toyota, in the 70’s. A first study of their behaviour was based upon modelling as stochastic dynamic systems, which emphasised, in the frame of the so-called “Normative Model”, a sufficient condition for self-balancing, that means for autonomous functioning at a steady production rate (stationary behaviour. Under some particular conditions, a simulation analysis of TSS lines could be made on non-linear block diagrams, showing that the state trajectories are piecewise continuous in between occurrences of certain discrete events, which determine their discontinuity. TSS lines may therefore be modelled as hybrid dynamic systems, more specific, with autonomous switching and autonomous impulses (jumps. A stability analysis of such manufacturing lines is allowed by modelling them as hybrid dynamic systems with discontinuous motions.

Noise and dose modeling for pediatric CT optimization: preliminary results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller Clemente, Rafael A.; Perez Diaz, Marlen; Mora Reyes, Yudel; Rodriguez Garlobo, Maikel; Castillo Salazar, Rafael

2008-01-01

Full text: A Multiple Linear Regression Model was developed to predict noise and dose in computed tomography pediatric imaging for head and abdominal examinations. Relative values of Noise and Volumetric Computed Tomography Dose Index was used to estimate de model respectively. 54 images of physical phantoms were performed. Independent variables considered included: phantom diameter, tube current and kilovolts, x ray beam collimation, reconstruction diameter and equipment's post processing filters. Predicted values show good agreement with measurements, which were better in noise model (R 2 adjusted =0.953) than the dose model (R 2 adjusted =0.744). Tube current, object diameter, beam collimation and reconstruction filter were identified as the most influencing factors in models. (author)

Energetic neutral atom imaging with the Polar CEPPAD/IPS instrument: Initial forward modeling results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henderson, M.G.; Reeves, G.D.; Moore, K.R.; Spence, H.E.; Jorgensen, A.M.; Roelof, E.C.

1997-01-01

Although the primary function of the CEP-PAD/IPS instrument on Polar is the measurement of energetic ions in-situ, it has also proven to be a very capable Energetic neutral Atom (ENA) imager. Raw ENA images are currently being constructed on a routine basis with a temporal resolution of minutes during both active and quiet times. However, while analyses of these images by themselves provide much information on the spatial distribution and dynamics of the energetic ion population in the ring current, detailed modeling is required to extract the actual ion distributions. In this paper, the authors present the initial results of forward modeling an IPS ENA image obtained during a small geo-magnetic storm on June 9, 1997. The equatorial ion distribution inferred with this technique reproduces the expected large noon/midnight and dawn/dusk asymmetries. The limitations of the model are discussed and a number of modifications to the basic forward modeling technique are proposed which should significantly improve its performance in future studies

Modeling HIV-1 Induced Neuroinflammation in Mice: Role of Platelets in Mediating Blood-Brain Barrier Dysfunction.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Letitia D Jones

Full Text Available The number of HIV-1 positive individuals developing some form of HIV-associated neurocognitive disorder (HAND is increasing. In these individuals, the integrity of the blood-brain barrier (BBB is compromised due to an increase in exposure to pro-inflammatory mediators, viral proteins, and virus released from infected cells. It has been shown that soluble CD40L (sCD40L is released upon platelet activation and is an important mediator of the pathogenesis of HAND but the underlying mechanisms are unclear, emphasizing the need of an effective animal model. Here, we have utilized a novel animal model in which wild-type (WT mice were infected with EcoHIV; a derivative of HIV-1 that contains a substitution of envelope protein gp120 with that of gp80 derived from murine leukemia virus-1 (MuLV-1. As early as two-weeks post-infection, EcoHIV led to increased permeability of the BBB associated with decreased expression of tight junction protein claudin-5, in CD40L and platelet activation-dependent manner. Treatment with an antiplatelet drug, eptifibatide, in EcoHIV-infected mice normalized BBB function, sCD40L release and platelet activity, thus implicating platelet activation and platelet-derived CD40L in virally induced BBB dysfunction. Our results also validate and underscore the importance of EcoHIV infection mouse model as a tool to explore therapeutic targets for HAND.

Non-extensitivity vs. informative moments for financial models —A unifying framework and empirical results

Science.gov (United States)

Herrmann, K.

2009-11-01

Information-theoretic approaches still play a minor role in financial market analysis. Nonetheless, there have been two very similar approaches evolving during the last years, one in the so-called econophysics and the other in econometrics. Both generalize the notion of GARCH processes in an information-theoretic sense and are able to capture kurtosis better than traditional models. In this article we present both approaches in a more general framework. The latter allows the derivation of a wide range of new models. We choose a third model using an entropy measure suggested by Kapur. In an application to financial market data, we find that all considered models - with similar flexibility in terms of skewness and kurtosis - lead to very similar results.

Global evaluation of runoff from ten state-of-the-art hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, Hylke; de Roo, Ad; van Dijk, Albert; Schellekens, Jaap; Dutra, Emanuel; Fink, Gabriel; Orth, Rene

2016-04-01

Observed streamflow data from 966 medium sized catchments (1000 to 5000 km2) around the globe were used to comprehensively evaluate the daily runoff estimates (1979-2012) of six global hydrological models (GHMs) and four land surface models (LSMs) produced as part of Tier-1 of the eartH2Observe project. The models were all driven by the WATCH Forcing Data ERA-Interim (WFDEI) meteorological dataset, but used different datasets for non-meteorologic inputs and were run at various spatial and temporal resolutions, although all data were re-sampled to a common 0.5° spatial and daily temporal resolution. For the evaluation, we used a broad range of performance metrics related to important aspects of the hydrograph. We found pronounced inter-model performance differences, underscoring the importance of hydrological model uncertainty in addition to climate input uncertainty, for example in studies assessing the hydrological impacts of climate change. The (uncalibrated) GHMs were found to perform better than the LSMs in snow-dominated regions, and the ensemble mean was found to perform only slightly worse than the best (calibrated) model. The models generally showed an early bias in the spring snowmelt peak. We further found that, despite adjustments using gauge observations, the WFDEI precipitation data still contain substantial biases which propagate in the simulated runoff. Overall, more effort should be devoted to calibrating and regionalizing the parameters of macro-scale models.

A Moderator Model of Alcohol Use and Dating Aggression among Young Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Collibee, Charlene; Furman, Wyndol

2018-03-01

Dating aggression has been identified as a priority public health concern. Although alcohol use is a known robust risk factor for dating aggression involvement, such usage is neither necessary nor sufficient for dating aggression involvement. As such, a growing topic of interest is a better understanding of when, and for whom, alcohol use increases risk. A theoretical moderator model posits that associations between alcohol use and dating aggression involvement vary depending on both background (e.g., psychopathology) and situational (e.g., relationship characteristics) risk factors. Alcohol use is thought to be more strongly associated with dating aggression in the context of these other risk factors. Using an intensive longitudinal design, we collected six waves of data spanning 6 months from 120 participants (60 females; M age W1 = 22.44). Alcohol use and relationship risk were both associated with increases in dating aggression involvement. Consistent with a moderator model, interactions emerged between alcohol use and relationship risk for subsequent dating aggression involvement. The findings underscore the importance of alcohol use and relationship risk for the development of intervention and prevention programs.

Impact of Transport Zone Number in Simulation Models on Cost-Benefit Analysis Results in Transport Investments

Science.gov (United States)

Chmielewski, Jacek

2017-10-01

Nowadays, feasibility studies need to be prepared for all planned transport investments, mainly those co-financed with UE grants. One of the fundamental aspect of feasibility study is the economic justification of an investment, evaluated in an area of so called cost-benefit analysis (CBA). The main goal of CBA calculation is to prove that a transport investment is really important for the society and should be implemented as economically efficient one. It can be said that the number of hours (PH - passengers hours) in trips and travelled kilometres (PK - passengers kilometres) are the most important for CBA results. The differences between PH and PK calculated for particular investment scenarios are the base for benefits calculation. Typically, transport simulation models are the best source for such data. Transport simulation models are one of the most powerful tools for transport network planning. They make it possible to evaluate forecast traffic volume and passenger flows in a public transport system for defined scenarios of transport and area development. There are many different transport models. Their construction is often similar, and they mainly differ in the level of their accuracy. Even models for the same area may differ in this matter. Typically, such differences come from the accuracy of supply side representation: road and public transport network representation. In many cases only main roads and a public transport network are represented, while local and service roads are eliminated as a way of reality simplification. This also enables a faster and more effective calculation process. On the other hand, the description of demand part of these models based on transport zones is often stable. Difficulties with data collection, mainly data on land use, resulted in the lack of changes in the analysed land division into so called transport zones. In this paper the author presents an influence of land division on the results of traffic analyses, and hence

QCD thermodynamics from an imaginary μB: Results on the four flavor lattice model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

D'Elia, Massimo; Lombardo, Maria-Paola

2004-01-01

We study four flavor QCD at nonzero temperature and density by analytic continuation from an imaginary chemical potential. The explored region is T=0.95T c c , and the baryochemical potentials range from 0 to ≅500 MeV. Observables include the number density, the order parameter for chiral symmetry, and the pressure, which is calculated via an integral method at fixed temperature and quark mass. The simulations are carried out on a 16 3 x4 lattice, and the mass dependence of the results is estimated by exploiting the Maxwell relations. In the hadronic region, we confirm that the results are consistent with a simple resonance hadron gas model, and we estimate the critical density by combining the results for the number density with those for the critical line. In the hot phase, above the end point of the Roberge-Weiss transition T E ≅1.1T c , the results are consistent with a free lattice model with a fixed effective number of flavor slightly different from four. We confirm that confinement and chiral symmetry are coincident by a further analysis of the critical line, and we discuss the interrelation between thermodynamics and critical behavior. We comment on the strength and weakness of the method, and propose further developments

RC Beams Strengthened with Mechanically Fastened Composites: Experimental Results and Numerical Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enzo Martinelli

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The use of mechanically-fastened fiber-reinforced polymer (MF-FRP systems has recently emerged as a competitive solution for the flexural strengthening of reinforced concrete (RC beams and slabs. An overview of the experimental research has proven the effectiveness and the potentiality of the MF-FRP technique which is particularly suitable for emergency repairs or when the speed of installation and immediacy of use are imperative. A finite-element (FE model has been recently developed by the authors with the aim to simulate the behavior of RC beams strengthened in bending by MF-FRP laminates; such a model has also been validated by using a wide experimental database collected from the literature. By following the previous study, the FE model and the assembled database are considered herein with the aim of better exploring the influence of some specific aspects on the structural response of MF-FRP strengthened members, such as the bearing stress-slip relationship assumed for the FRP-concrete interface, the stress-strain law considered for reinforcing steel rebars and the cracking process in RC members resulting in the well-known tension stiffening effect. The considerations drawn from this study will be useful to researchers for the calibration of criteria and design rules for strengthening RC beams through MF-FRP laminates.

The comparative analysis of model and prototype test results of Bulb turbine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benisek, M; Bozic, I; Ignjatovic, B

2010-01-01

This paper presents the problem of the hydropower plant oblique water inflow and its influence on the turbines operation. Oblique water inflow on the low head hydropower plant with bulb turbines influences turbine characteristics. The characteristics change occurs due to swirl incidence in the turbine inlet which spreads to the guide vanes inlet. Downstream, the flow conditions change is caused in the turbine runner in relation to the flow conditions without swirl inflow. Special attention is paid to the phenomenon of swirl flow incidence in the turbine conduit. With the aim of presenting and analyzing the oblique water inflow consequences on the hydropower plant operation, the existing turbine model tests results, performed in the laboratories, and the in situ prototype testing results have been used.

Box photosynthesis modeling results for WRF/CMAQ LSM

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Box Photosynthesis model simulations for latent heat and ozone at 6 different FLUXNET sites. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Ran, L., J....

The Kynurenine Pathway Modulates Neurodegeneration in a Drosophila Model of Huntington’s Disease

Science.gov (United States)

Campesan, Susanna; Green, Edward W.; Breda, Carlo; Sathyasaikumar, Korrapati V.; Muchowski, Paul J.; Schwarcz, Robert; Kyriacou, Charalambos P.; Giorgini, Flaviano

2014-01-01

Summary Neuroactive metabolites of the kynurenine pathway (KP) of tryptophan degradation have been implicated in the pathophysiology of neurodegenerative disorders, including Huntington’s disease (HD) [1]. A central hallmark of HD is neurodegeneration caused by a polyglutamine expansion in the huntingtin (htt) protein [2]. Here we exploit a transgenic Drosophila melanogaster model of HD to interrogate the therapeutic potential of KP manipulation. We observe that genetic and pharmacological inhibition of kynurenine 3-monooxygenase (KMO) increases levels of the neuroprotective metabolite kynurenic acid (KYNA) relative to the neurotoxic metabolite 3-hydroxykynurenine (3-HK) and ameliorates neurodegeneration. We also find that genetic inhibition of tryptophan 2,3-dioxygenase (TDO), the first and rate-limiting step in the pathway, leads to a similar neuroprotective shift toward KYNA synthesis. Importantly, we demonstrate that the feeding of KYNA and 3-HK to HD model flies directly modulates neurodegeneration, underscoring the causative nature of these metabolites. This study provides the first genetic evidence that inhibition of KMO and TDO activity protects against neurodegenerative disease in an animal model, indicating that strategies targeted at two key points within the KP may have therapeutic relevance in HD, and possibly other neurodegenerative disorders. PMID:21636279

The BirthPlace collaborative practice model: results from the San Diego Birth Center Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Swartz; Jackson; Lang; Ecker; Ganiats; Dickinson; Nguyen

1998-07-01

compared along with cost-effectiveness and acceptance of the model by patients. Data collection occurred primarily through medical record abstraction with the addition of two patient questionnaires. Comparability of the cohorts was established by using a validated methodology to determine medical/perinatal risk and birth center eligibility, which included assessment by two CNMs and an independent blind review by a perinatologist. The cost analysis uses a resource-utilization approach and new methodologies such as activity-based-costing to compare costs from both the perspective of the payor and the health care provider. Patient satisfaction was measured using a self-administered patient questionnaire.Results: Current preliminary results from approximately 38% of the final expected study sample are available. Crude and adjusted analysis have been conducted. Overall, the preliminary results suggest similar morbidity and mortality in the two groups. Fetal deaths are 0.75% in the index and 0.64% in the comparison group, with early neonatal deaths at 0.26% and 0.23%, respectively. The traditional care group showed adjusted rate differences of 5.83% more major maternal intrapartum complications and 9% more NICU admissions. While the birth center group showed adjusted rate differences of 5.5% more low birth weight and 0.95% more preterm birth. For other outcomes, the birth center group showed an adjusted rate difference of 22.34% more exclusive breastfeeding at discharge. Also, there was less utilization of cesarean section and assisted delivery in the birth center group as compared to the traditional care group. The adjusted rate difference for normal spontaneous vaginal deliveries in nulliparas was 10.23% more in the birth center group, with similar results in multiparas with and without history of cesarean (28.88% and 7.84%, respectively). Preliminary results also show that the average total cost for pregnancy-related services paid by California Medicaid was $4,550 for the

From sub-source to source: Interpreting results of biological trace investigations using probabilistic models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oosterman, W.T.; Kokshoorn, B.; Maaskant-van Wijk, P.A.; de Zoete, J.

2015-01-01

The current method of reporting a putative cell type is based on a non-probabilistic assessment of test results by the forensic practitioner. Additionally, the association between donor and cell type in mixed DNA profiles can be exceedingly complex. We present a probabilistic model for

The Explicit-Cloud Parameterized-Pollutant hybrid approach for aerosol-cloud interactions in multiscale modeling framework models: tracer transport results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jr, William I Gustafson; Berg, Larry K; Easter, Richard C; Ghan, Steven J

2008-01-01

All estimates of aerosol indirect effects on the global energy balance have either completely neglected the influence of aerosol on convective clouds or treated the influence in a highly parameterized manner. Embedding cloud-resolving models (CRMs) within each grid cell of a global model provides a multiscale modeling framework for treating both the influence of aerosols on convective as well as stratiform clouds and the influence of clouds on the aerosol, but treating the interactions explicitly by simulating all aerosol processes in the CRM is computationally prohibitive. An alternate approach is to use horizontal statistics (e.g., cloud mass flux, cloud fraction, and precipitation) from the CRM simulation to drive a single-column parameterization of cloud effects on the aerosol and then use the aerosol profile to simulate aerosol effects on clouds within the CRM. Here, we present results from the first component of the Explicit-Cloud Parameterized-Pollutant parameterization to be developed, which handles vertical transport of tracers by clouds. A CRM with explicit tracer transport serves as a benchmark. We show that this parameterization, driven by the CRM's cloud mass fluxes, reproduces the CRM tracer transport significantly better than a single-column model that uses a conventional convective cloud parameterization

The Explicit-Cloud Parameterized-Pollutant hybrid approach for aerosol-cloud interactions in multiscale modeling framework models: tracer transport results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jr, William I Gustafson; Berg, Larry K; Easter, Richard C; Ghan, Steven J [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, PO Box 999, MSIN K9-30, Richland, WA (United States)], E-mail: William.Gustafson@pnl.gov

2008-04-15

All estimates of aerosol indirect effects on the global energy balance have either completely neglected the influence of aerosol on convective clouds or treated the influence in a highly parameterized manner. Embedding cloud-resolving models (CRMs) within each grid cell of a global model provides a multiscale modeling framework for treating both the influence of aerosols on convective as well as stratiform clouds and the influence of clouds on the aerosol, but treating the interactions explicitly by simulating all aerosol processes in the CRM is computationally prohibitive. An alternate approach is to use horizontal statistics (e.g., cloud mass flux, cloud fraction, and precipitation) from the CRM simulation to drive a single-column parameterization of cloud effects on the aerosol and then use the aerosol profile to simulate aerosol effects on clouds within the CRM. Here, we present results from the first component of the Explicit-Cloud Parameterized-Pollutant parameterization to be developed, which handles vertical transport of tracers by clouds. A CRM with explicit tracer transport serves as a benchmark. We show that this parameterization, driven by the CRM's cloud mass fluxes, reproduces the CRM tracer transport significantly better than a single-column model that uses a conventional convective cloud parameterization.

Some Econometric Results for the Blanchard-Watson Bubble Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Soren; Lange, Theis

The purpose of the present paper is to analyse a simple bubble model suggested by Blanchard and Watson. The model is defined by y(t) =s(t)¿y(t-1)+e(t), t=1,…,n, where s(t) is an i.i.d. binary variable with p=P(s(t)=1), independent of e(t) i.i.d. with mean zero and finite variance. We take ¿>1 so...

Advanced fuel cycle cost estimation model and its cost estimation results for three nuclear fuel cycles using a dynamic model in Korea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Sungki, E-mail: sgkim1@kaeri.re.kr [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Ko, Wonil [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Youn, Saerom; Gao, Ruxing [University of Science and Technology, 217 Gajungro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-350 (Korea, Republic of); Bang, Sungsig, E-mail: ssbang@kaist.ac.kr [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Department of Business and Technology Management, 291 Deahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-701 (Korea, Republic of)

2015-11-15

Highlights: • The nuclear fuel cycle cost using a new cost estimation model was analyzed. • The material flows of three nuclear fuel cycle options were calculated. • The generation cost of once-through was estimated to be 66.88 mills/kW h. • The generation cost of pyro-SFR recycling was estimated to be 78.06 mills/kW h. • The reactor cost was identified as the main cost driver of pyro-SFR recycling. - Abstract: The present study analyzes advanced nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation models such as the different discount rate model and its cost estimation results. To do so, an analysis of the nuclear fuel cycle cost of three options (direct disposal (once through), PWR–MOX (Mixed OXide fuel), and Pyro-SFR (Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor)) from the viewpoint of economic sense, focusing on the cost estimation model, was conducted using a dynamic model. From an analysis of the fuel cycle cost estimation results, it was found that some cost gap exists between the traditional same discount rate model and the advanced different discount rate model. However, this gap does not change the priority of the nuclear fuel cycle option from the viewpoint of economics. In addition, the fuel cycle costs of OT (Once-Through) and Pyro-SFR recycling based on the most likely value using a probabilistic cost estimation except for reactor costs were calculated to be 8.75 mills/kW h and 8.30 mills/kW h, respectively. Namely, the Pyro-SFR recycling option was more economical than the direct disposal option. However, if the reactor cost is considered, the economic sense in the generation cost between the two options (direct disposal vs. Pyro-SFR recycling) can be changed because of the high reactor cost of an SFR.

Personality assessment and model comparison with behavioral data: A statistical framework and empirical demonstration with bonobos (Pan paniscus).

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Jordan S; Suarez, Scott A

2017-08-01

sociability (Agreeableness) as well as activity level, social play, and neophilia toward non-threatening stimuli (Openness). These results underscore the utility of our framework for quantifying personality in primates and facilitating greater integration between the behavioral ecological and comparative psychological approaches to personality research. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Effect of Cooperative Learning Model and Kolb Learning Styles on Learning Result of the Basics of Politics

Science.gov (United States)

Sugiharto

2015-01-01

The aims of this research were to determine the effect of cooperative learning model and learning styles on learning result. This quasi-experimental study employed a 2x2 treatment by level, involved independent variables, i.e. cooperative learning model and learning styles, and learning result as the dependent variable. Findings signify that: (1)…

A comparison of simulation results from two terrestrial carbon cycle models using three climate data sets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ito, Akihiko; Sasai, Takahiro

2006-01-01

This study addressed how different climate data sets influence simulations of the global terrestrial carbon cycle. For the period 1982-2001, we compared the results of simulations based on three climate data sets (NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/DOE AMIP-II and ERA40) employed in meteorological, ecological and biogeochemical studies and two different models (BEAMS and Sim-CYCLE). The models differed in their parameterizations of photosynthetic and phenological processes but used the same surface climate (e.g. shortwave radiation, temperature and precipitation), vegetation, soil and topography data. The three data sets give different climatic conditions, especially for shortwave radiation, in terms of long-term means, linear trends and interannual variability. Consequently, the simulation results for global net primary productivity varied by 16%-43% only from differences in the climate data sets, especially in these regions where the shortwave radiation data differed markedly: differences in the climate data set can strongly influence simulation results. The differences among the climate data set and between the two models resulted in slightly different spatial distribution and interannual variability in the net ecosystem carbon budget. To minimize uncertainty, we should pay attention to the specific climate data used. We recommend developing an accurate standard climate data set for simulation studies

Postdependent state in rats as a model for medication development in alcoholism.

Science.gov (United States)

Meinhardt, Marcus W; Sommer, Wolfgang H

2015-01-01

Rational development of novel therapeutic strategies for alcoholism requires understanding of its underlying neurobiology and pathophysiology. Obtaining this knowledge largely relies on animal studies. Thus, choosing the appropriate animal model is one of the most critical steps in pre-clinical medication development. Among the range of animal models that have been used to investigate excessive alcohol consumption in rodents, the postdependent model stands out. It was specifically developed to test the role of negative affect as a key driving force in a perpetuating addiction cycle for alcoholism. Here, we will describe our approach to make rats dependent via chronic intermittent exposure to alcohol, discuss the validity of this model, and compare it with other commonly used animal models of alcoholism. We will summarize evidence that postdependent rats fulfill several criteria of a 'Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders IV/V-like' diagnostic system. Importantly, these animals show long-lasting excessive consumption of and increased motivation for alcohol, and evidence for loss of control over alcohol intake. Our conclusion that postdependent rats are an excellent model for medication development for alcoholism is underscored by a summary of more than two dozen pharmacological tests aimed at reversing these abnormal alcohol responses. We will end with open questions on the use of this model. In the tradition of the Sanchis-Segura and Spanagel review, we provide comic strips that illustrate the postdependent procedure and relevant phenotypes in this review. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Differential fracture healing resulting from fixation stiffness variability. A mouse model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gardner, M.J.; Putnam, S.M.; Wong, A.; Streubel, P.N.; Kotiya, A.; Silva, M.J.

2011-01-01

The mechanisms underlying the interaction between the local mechanical environment and fracture healing are not known. We developed a mouse femoral fracture model with implants of different stiffness, and hypothesized that differential fracture healing would result. Femoral shaft fractures were created in 70 mice, and were treated with an intramedullary nail made of either tungsten (Young's modulus=410 GPa) or aluminium (Young's modulus=70 GPa). Mice were then sacrificed at 2 or 5 weeks. Fracture calluses were analyzed using standard microCT, histological, and biomechanical methods. At 2 weeks, callus volume was significantly greater in the aluminium group than in the tungsten group (61.2 vs. 40.5 mm 3 , p=0.016), yet bone volume within the calluses was no different between the groups (13.2 vs. 12.3 mm 3 ). Calluses from the tungsten group were stiffer on mechanical testing (18.7 vs. 9.7 N/mm, p=0.01). The percent cartilage in the callus was 31.6% in the aluminium group and 22.9% in the tungsten group (p=0.40). At 5 weeks, there were no differences between any of the healed femora. In this study, fracture implants of different stiffness led to different fracture healing in this mouse fracture model. Fractures treated with a stiffer implant had more advanced healing at 2 weeks, but still healed by callus formation. Although this concept has been well documented previously, this particular model could be a valuable research tool to study the healing consequences of altered fixation stiffness, which may provide insight into the pathogenesis and ideal treatment of fractures and non-unions. (author)

Engineering model cryocooler test results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skimko, M.A.; Stacy, W.D.; McCormick, J.A.

1992-01-01

This paper reports that recent testing of diaphragm-defined, Stirling-cycle machines and components has demonstrated cooling performance potential, validated the design code, and confirmed several critical operating characteristics. A breadboard cryocooler was rebuilt and tested from cryogenic to near-ambient cold end temperatures. There was a significant increase in capacity at cryogenic temperatures and the performance results compared will with code predictions at all temperatures. Further testing on a breadboard diaphragm compressor validated the calculated requirement for a minimum axial clearance between diaphragms and mating heads

Verification of simulation model with COBRA-IIIP code by confrontment of experimental results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva Galetti, M.R. da; Pontedeiro, A.C.; Oliveira Barroso, A.C. de

1985-01-01

It is presented an evaluation of the COBRA IIIP/MIT code (of thermal hydraulic analysis by subchannels), comparing their results with experimental data obtained in stationary and transient regimes. It was done a study to calculate the spatial and temporal critical heat flux. It is presented a sensitivity study of simulation model related to the turbulent mixture and the number of axial intervals. (M.C.K.) [pt

More performance results and implementation of an object oriented track reconstruction model in different OO frameworks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gaines, Irwin; Qian Sijin

2001-01-01

This is an update of the report about an Object Oriented (OO) track reconstruction model, which was presented in the previous AIHENP'99 at Crete, Greece. The OO model for the Kalman filtering method has been designed for high energy physics experiments at high luminosity hadron colliders. It has been coded in the C++ programming language and successfully implemented into a few different OO computing environments of the CMS and ATLAS experiments at the future Large Hadron Collider at CERN. We shall report: (1) more performance result: (2) implementing the OO model into the new SW OO framework 'Athena' of ATLAS experiment and some upgrades of the OO model itself

Emergence of nutrient limitation in tropical dry forests: hypotheses from simulation models

Science.gov (United States)

Medvigy, D.; Waring, B. G.; Xu, X.; Trierweiler, A.; Werden, L. K.; Wang, G.; Zhu, Q.; Powers, J. S.

2017-12-01

It is unclear to what extent tropical dry forest productivity may be limited by nutrients. Direct assessment of nutrient limitation through fertilization experiments has been rare, and paradigms pertaining to other ecosystems may not extend to tropical dry forests. For example, because dry tropical forests have a lower water supply than moist tropical forests, dry forests can have lower decomposition rates, higher soil carbon and nitrogen concentrations, and a more open nitrogen cycle than moist forests. We used a mechanistic, numerical model to generate hypotheses about nutrient limitation in tropical dry forests. The model dynamically couples ED2 (vegetation dynamics), MEND (biogeochemistry), and N-COM (plant-microbe competition for nutrients). Here, the MEND-component of the model has been extended to include nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles. We focus on simulation of sixteen 25m x 25m plots in Costa Rica where a fertilization experiment has been underway since 2015. Baseline simulations are characterized by both nitrogen and phosphorus limitation of vegetation. Fertilization with N and P increased vegetation biomass, with N fertilization having a somewhat stronger effect. Nutrient limitation was also sensitive to climate and was more pronounced during drought periods. Overflow respiration was identified as a key process that mitigated nutrient limitation. These results suggest that, despite often having richer soils than tropical moist forests, tropical dry forests can also become nutrient-limited. If the climate becomes drier in the next century, as is expected for Central America, drier soils may decrease microbial activity and exacerbate nutrient limitation. The importance of overflow respiration underscores the need for appropriate treatment of microbial dynamics in ecosystem models. Ongoing and new nutrient fertilization experiments will present opportunities for testing whether, and how, nutrient limitation may indeed be emerging in tropical dry

Durango: Scalable Synthetic Workload Generation for Extreme-Scale Application Performance Modeling and Simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carothers, Christopher D. [Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI); Meredith, Jeremy S. [ORNL; Blanco, Marc [Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI); Vetter, Jeffrey S. [ORNL; Mubarak, Misbah [Argonne National Laboratory; LaPre, Justin [Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI); Moore, Shirley V. [ORNL

2017-05-01

Performance modeling of extreme-scale applications on accurate representations of potential architectures is critical for designing next generation supercomputing systems because it is impractical to construct prototype systems at scale with new network hardware in order to explore designs and policies. However, these simulations often rely on static application traces that can be difficult to work with because of their size and lack of flexibility to extend or scale up without rerunning the original application. To address this problem, we have created a new technique for generating scalable, flexible workloads from real applications, we have implemented a prototype, called Durango, that combines a proven analytical performance modeling language, Aspen, with the massively parallel HPC network modeling capabilities of the CODES framework.Our models are compact, parameterized and representative of real applications with computation events. They are not resource intensive to create and are portable across simulator environments. We demonstrate the utility of Durango by simulating the LULESH application in the CODES simulation environment on several topologies and show that Durango is practical to use for simulation without loss of fidelity, as quantified by simulation metrics. During our validation of Durango's generated communication model of LULESH, we found that the original LULESH miniapp code had a latent bug where the MPI_Waitall operation was used incorrectly. This finding underscores the potential need for a tool such as Durango, beyond its benefits for flexible workload generation and modeling.Additionally, we demonstrate the efficacy of Durango's direct integration approach, which links Aspen into CODES as part of the running network simulation model. Here, Aspen generates the application-level computation timing events, which in turn drive the start of a network communication phase. Results show that Durango's performance scales well when

Applying Mathematical Tools to Accelerate Vaccine Development: Modeling Shigella Immune Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Courtney L.; Wahid, Rezwanul; Toapanta, Franklin R.; Simon, Jakub K.

2013-01-01

We establish a mathematical framework for studying immune interactions with Shigella, a bacteria that kills over one million people worldwide every year. The long-term goal of this novel approach is to inform Shigella vaccine design by elucidating which immune components and bacterial targets are crucial for establishing Shigella immunity. Our delay differential equation model focuses on antibody and B cell responses directed against antigens like lipopolysaccharide in Shigella’s outer membrane. We find that antibody-based vaccines targeting only surface antigens cannot elicit sufficient immunity for protection. Additional boosting prior to infection would require a four-orders-of-magnitude increase in antibodies to sufficiently prevent epithelial invasion. However, boosting anti-LPS B memory can confer protection, which suggests these cells may correlate with immunity. We see that IgA antibodies are slightly more effective per molecule than IgG, but more total IgA is required due to spatial functionality. An extension of the model reveals that targeting both LPS and epithelial entry proteins is a promising avenue to advance vaccine development. This paper underscores the importance of multifaceted immune targeting in creating an effective Shigella vaccine. It introduces mathematical models to the Shigella vaccine development effort and lays a foundation for joint theoretical/experimental/clinical approaches to Shigella vaccine design. PMID:23589755

The ITER magnets: Preparation for full size construction based on the results of the model coil programme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huguet, M.

2003-01-01

The ITER magnets are long-lead time items and the preparation of their construction is the subject of a major and coordinated effort of the ITER International Team and Participant Teams. The results of the ITER model coil programme constitute the basis and the main source of data for the preparation of the technical specifications for the procurement of the ITER magnets. A review of the salient results of the ITER model coil programme is given and the significance of these results for the preparation of full size industrial production is explained. The model coil programme has confirmed the validity of the design and the manufacturer's ability to produce the coils with the required quality level. The programme has also allowed the optimisation of the conductor design and the identification of further development which would lead to cost reductions of the toroidal field coil case. (author)

Meteorological Uncertainty of atmospheric Dispersion model results (MUD)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Amstrup, Bjarne; Feddersen, Henrik

The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the 'most likely' dispersion scenario....

ExEP yield modeling tool and validation test results

Science.gov (United States)

Morgan, Rhonda; Turmon, Michael; Delacroix, Christian; Savransky, Dmitry; Garrett, Daniel; Lowrance, Patrick; Liu, Xiang Cate; Nunez, Paul

2017-09-01

EXOSIMS is an open-source simulation tool for parametric modeling of the detection yield and characterization of exoplanets. EXOSIMS has been adopted by the Exoplanet Exploration Programs Standards Definition and Evaluation Team (ExSDET) as a common mechanism for comparison of exoplanet mission concept studies. To ensure trustworthiness of the tool, we developed a validation test plan that leverages the Python-language unit-test framework, utilizes integration tests for selected module interactions, and performs end-to-end crossvalidation with other yield tools. This paper presents the test methods and results, with the physics-based tests such as photometry and integration time calculation treated in detail and the functional tests treated summarily. The test case utilized a 4m unobscured telescope with an idealized coronagraph and an exoplanet population from the IPAC radial velocity (RV) exoplanet catalog. The known RV planets were set at quadrature to allow deterministic validation of the calculation of physical parameters, such as working angle, photon counts and integration time. The observing keepout region was tested by generating plots and movies of the targets and the keepout zone over a year. Although the keepout integration test required the interpretation of a user, the test revealed problems in the L2 halo orbit and the parameterization of keepout applied to some solar system bodies, which the development team was able to address. The validation testing of EXOSIMS was performed iteratively with the developers of EXOSIMS and resulted in a more robust, stable, and trustworthy tool that the exoplanet community can use to simulate exoplanet direct-detection missions from probe class, to WFIRST, up to large mission concepts such as HabEx and LUVOIR.

Argonne Fuel Cycle Facility ventilation system -- modeling and results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohr, D.; Feldman, E.E.; Danielson, W.F.

1995-01-01

This paper describes an integrated study of the Argonne-West Fuel Cycle Facility (FCF) interconnected ventilation systems during various operations. Analyses and test results include first a nominal condition reflecting balanced pressures and flows followed by several infrequent and off-normal scenarios. This effort is the first study of the FCF ventilation systems as an integrated network wherein the hydraulic effects of all major air systems have been analyzed and tested. The FCF building consists of many interconnected regions in which nuclear fuel is handled, transported and reprocessed. The ventilation systems comprise a large number of ducts, fans, dampers, and filters which together must provide clean, properly conditioned air to the worker occupied spaces of the facility while preventing the spread of airborne radioactive materials to clean am-as or the atmosphere. This objective is achieved by keeping the FCF building at a partial vacuum in which the contaminated areas are kept at lower pressures than the other worker occupied spaces. The ventilation systems of FCF and the EBR-II reactor are analyzed as an integrated totality, as demonstrated. We then developed the network model shown in Fig. 2 for the TORAC code. The scope of this study was to assess the measured results from the acceptance/flow balancing testing and to predict the effects of power failures, hatch and door openings, single-failure faulted conditions, EBR-II isolation, and other infrequent operations. The studies show that the FCF ventilation systems am very controllable and remain stable following off-normal events. In addition, the FCF ventilation system complex is essentially immune to reverse flows and spread of contamination to clean areas during normal and off-normal operation

Influence of FGR complexity modelling on the practical results in gas pressure calculation of selected fuel elements from Dukovany NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lahodova, M.

2001-01-01

A modernization fuel system and advanced fuel for operation up to the high burnup are used in present time in Dukovany NPP. Reloading of the cores are evaluated using computer codes for thermomechanical behavior of the most loaded fuel rods. The paper presents results of parametric calculations performed by the NRI Rez integral code PIN, version 2000 (PIN2k) to assess influence of fission gas release modelling complexity on achieved results. The representative Dukovany NPP fuel rod irradiation history data are used and two cases of fuel parameter variables (soft and hard) are chosen for the comparison. Involved FGR models where the GASREL diffusion model developed in the NRI Rez plc and standard Weisman model that is recommended in the previous version of the PIN integral code. FGR calculation by PIN2k with GASREL model represents more realistic results than standard Weisman's model. Results for linear power, fuel centre temperature, FGR and gas pressure versus burnup are given for two fuel rods

Modeling learning and memory using verbal learning tests: results from ACTIVE.

Science.gov (United States)

Gross, Alden L; Rebok, George W; Brandt, Jason; Tommet, Doug; Marsiske, Michael; Jones, Richard N

2013-03-01

To investigate the influence of memory training on initial recall and learning. The Advanced Cognitive Training for Independent and Vital Elderly study of community-dwelling adults older than age 65 (n = 1,401). We decomposed trial-level recall in the Auditory Verbal Learning Test (AVLT) and Hopkins Verbal Learning Test (HVLT) into initial recall and learning across trials using latent growth models. Trial-level increases in words recalled in the AVLT and HVLT at each follow-up visit followed an approximately logarithmic shape. Over the 5-year study period, memory training was associated with slower decline in Trial 1 AVLT recall (Cohen's d = 0.35, p = .03) and steep pre- and posttraining acceleration in learning (d = 1.56, p learning, d = 3.10, p memory-trained group had a higher level of recall than the control group through the end of the 5-year study period despite faster decline in learning. This study contributes to the understanding of the mechanisms by which training benefits memory and expands current knowledge by reporting long-term changes in initial recall and learning, as measured from growth models and by characterization of the impact of memory training on these components. Results reveal that memory training delays the worsening of memory span and boosts learning.

Gold Nanoparticles as Probes for Nano-Raman Spectroscopy: Preliminary Experimental Results and Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Le Nader

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an effective Tip-Enhanced Raman Spectrometer (TERS in backscattering reflection configuration. It combines a tip-probe nanopositioning system with Raman spectroscope. Specific tips were processed by anchoring gold nanoparticles on the apex of tapered optical fibers, prepared by an improved chemical etching method. Hence, it is possible to expose a very small area of the sample (~20 nm2 to the very strong local electromagnetic field generated by the lightning rod effect. This experimental configuration was modelled and optimised using the finite element method, which takes into account electromagnetic effects as well as the plasmon resonance. Finally, TERS measurements on single-wall carbon nanotubes were successfully performed. These results confirm the high Raman scattering enhancement predicted by the modelling, induced by our new nano-Raman device.

Phobic, panic, and major depressive disorders and the five-factor model of personality.

Science.gov (United States)

Bienvenu, O J; Nestadt, G; Samuels, J F; Costa, P T; Howard, W T; Eaton, W W

2001-03-01

This study investigated five-factor model personality traits in anxiety (simple phobia, social phobia, agoraphobia, and panic disorder) and major depressive disorders in a population-based sample. In the Baltimore Epidemiologic Catchment Area Follow-up Study, psychiatrists administered the Schedules for Clinical Assessment in Neuropsychiatry to 333 adult subjects who also completed the Revised NEO Personality Inventory. All of the disorders except simple phobia were associated with high neuroticism. Social phobia and agoraphobia were associated with low extraversion. In addition, lower-order facets of extraversion, agreeableness, and conscientiousness were associated with certain disorders (i.e., low positive emotions in panic disorder; low trust and compliance in certain phobias; and low competence, achievement striving, and self-discipline in several disorders). This study emphasizes the utility of lower-order personality assessments and underscores the need for further research on personality/psychopathology etiologic relationships.

Tax-and-Spend or Spend-and-Tax? Empirical Evidence from Malaysia

OpenAIRE

Tan Juat Hong

2009-01-01

The paper investigates the causal relationships between government spending and revenue for Malaysia. The study uses annual data, a Johansen cointegration test and an error-correction model. A preliminary test shows that government revenue and expenditure are cointegrated. Empirical results support the spend-and-tax hypothesis. Furthermore, they underscore the fact that fiscal policy may not be effective enough to curb the rising budget deficits over the long term and may even reduce private ...

Lifespan persistence of ADHD: the life transition model and its application.

Science.gov (United States)

Turgay, Atilla; Goodman, David W; Asherson, Philip; Lasser, Robert A; Babcock, Thomas F; Pucci, Michael L; Barkley, Russell

2012-02-01

The understanding that attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) often persists throughout life has heightened interest of patients, families, advocates, and professionals in a longitudinal approach to management. Such an approach must recognize and address known patient- and systems-based challenges of long-term mental health treatment, shifting of clinical presentations of ADHD, and commonality of psychiatric comorbidity with ADHD. The ADHD Life Transition Model is a step toward developing criteria to optimize recognition and clinical management of ADHD (eg, response, remission) across an individual's lifespan and across diverse medical subspecialties. To support therapeutic efficiency and adaptability, our proposed model highlights periods when external resources for managing ADHD are reduced, cognitive and behavioral stressors are increased, and individuals may be reevaluating how they perceive, accept, and adhere to ADHD treatment. Such a model aims to support the clinical community by placing in context new findings, which suggest that the prevention of adult psychopathology in individuals with pediatric ADHD may be possible. The ADHD Life Transition Model seeks to improve care for individuals with ADHD by (1) underscoring that ADHD persists beyond childhood in at least two-thirds of patients, (2) raising awareness of the need to approach ADHD from a chronic illness standpoint, and (3) increasing mental health professionals' diligence in symptom recognition and management of ADHD across developmental phases from childhood through adulthood. © Copyright 2012 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

The animal model determines the results of Aeromonas virulence factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alejandro Romero

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The selection of an experimental animal model is of great importance in the study of bacterial virulence factors. Here, a bath infection of zebrafish larvae is proposed as an alternative model to study the virulence factors of A. hydrophila. Intraperitoneal infections in mice and trout were compared with bath infections in zebrafish larvae using specific mutants. The great advantage of this model is that bath immersion mimics the natural route of infection, and injury to the tail also provides a natural portal of entry for the bacteria. The implication of T3SS in the virulence of A. hydrophila was analysed using the AH-1::aopB mutant. This mutant was less virulent than the wild-type strain when inoculated into zebrafish larvae, as described in other vertebrates. However, the zebrafish model exhibited slight differences in mortality kinetics only observed using invertebrate models. Infections using the mutant AH-1∆vapA lacking the gene coding for the surface S-layer suggested that this protein was not totally necessary to the bacteria once it was inside the host, but it contributed to the inflammatory response. Only when healthy zebrafish larvae were infected did the mutant produce less mortality than the wild type. Variations between models were evidenced using the AH-1∆rmlB, which lacks the O-antigen lipopolysaccharide (LPS, and the AH-1∆wahD, which lacks the O-antigen LPS and part of the LPS outer-core. Both mutants showed decreased mortality in all of the animal models, but the differences between them were only observed in injured zebrafish larvae, suggesting that residues from the LPS outer core must be important for virulence. The greatest differences were observed using the AH-1ΔFlaB-J (lacking polar flagella and unable to swim and the AH-1::motX (non-motile but producing flagella. They were as pathogenic as the wild-type strain when injected into mice and trout, but no mortalities were registered in zebrafish larvae. This study

Meteorological Uncertainty of atmospheric Dispersion model results (MUD)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Havskov Sørensen, Jens; Amstrup, Bjarne; Feddersen, Henrik

The MUD project addresses assessment of uncertainties of atmospheric dispersion model predictions, as well as possibilities for optimum presentation to decision makers. Previously, it has not been possible to estimate such uncertainties quantitatively, but merely to calculate the ‘most likely’ di...

Elder mediation in theory and practice: study results from a national caregiver mediation demonstration project.

Science.gov (United States)

Crampton, Alexandra

2013-01-01

Mediation is a process through which a third party facilitates discussion among disputing parties to help them identify interests and ideally reach an amicable solution. Elder mediation is a growing subspecialty to address conflicts involving older adults, primarily involving caregiving or finances. Mediation is theorized to empower participants but critics argue that it can exacerbate power imbalances among parties and coerce consensus. These contested claims are examined through study of a national caregiver mediation demonstration project. Study implications underscore the importance of gerontological social work expertise to ensure the empowerment of vulnerable older adults in mediation sessions.

Exact one-loop results for l_i → l_jγ in 3-3-1 models

Science.gov (United States)

Hue, L. T.; Ninh, L. D.; Thuc, T. T.; Dat, N. T. T.

2018-02-01

We investigate the decays l_i→ l_j γ , with l_i=e,μ ,τ in a general class of 3-3-1 models with heavy exotic leptons with arbitrary electric charges. We present full and exact analytical results keeping external lepton masses. As a by product, we perform numerical comparisons between exact results and approximate ones where the external lepton masses are neglected. As expected, we found that branching fractions can reach the current experimental limits if mixings and mass differences of the exotic leptons are large enough. We also found unexpectedly that, depending on the parameter values, there can be huge destructive interference between the gauge and Higgs contributions when the gauge bosons connecting the Standard Model leptons to the exotic leptons are light enough. This mechanism should be taken into account when using experimental constraints on the branching fractions to exclude the parameter space of the model.

THE INFLUENCE OF CONVERSION MODEL CHOICE FOR EROSION RATE ESTIMATION AND THE SENSITIVITY OF THE RESULTS TO CHANGES IN THE MODEL PARAMETER

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nita Suhartini

2010-06-01

Full Text Available A study of soil erosion rates had been done on a slightly and long slope of cultivated area in Ciawi - Bogor, using 137Cs technique. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the applicability of the 137Cs technique in obtaining spatially distributed information of soil redistribution at small catchment. This paper reports the result of the choice of conversion model for erosion rate estimates and the sensitive of the changes in the model parameter. For this purpose, small site was selected, namely landuse I (LU-I. The top of a slope was chosen as a reference site. The erosion/deposit rate of individual sampling points was estimated using the conversion models, namely Proportional Model (PM, Mass Balance Model 1 (MBM1 and Mass Balance Model 2 (MBM2. A comparison of the conversion models showed that the lowest value is obtained by the PM. The MBM1 gave values closer to MBM2, but MBM2 gave a reliable values. In this study, a sensitivity analysis suggest that the conversion models are sensitive to changes in parameters that depend on the site conditions, but insensitive to changes in  parameters that interact to the onset of 137Cs fallout input.   Keywords: soil erosion, environmental radioisotope, cesium

Life-cycle studies of biodiesel in Europe: A review addressing the variability of results and modeling issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malca, Joao; Freire, Fausto

2011-01-01

Renewable energy sources, and particularly biofuels, are being promoted as possible solutions to address global warming and the depletion of petroleum resources. Nevertheless, significant disagreement and controversies exist regarding the actual benefits of biofuels displacing fossil fuels, as shown by a large number of life-cycle studies that have varying and sometimes contradictory conclusions. This article presents a comprehensive review of life-cycle studies of biodiesel in Europe. Studies have been compared in terms of nonrenewable primary energy requirement and GHG intensity of biodiesel. Recently published studies negate the definite and deterministic advantages for biodiesel presented in former studies. A high variability of results, particularly for biodiesel GHG intensity, with emissions ranging from 15 to 170 gCO 2 eq MJ f -1 has been observed. A detailed assessment of relevant aspects, including major assumptions, modeling choices and results, has been performed. The main causes for this high variability have been investigated, with emphasis on modeling choices. Key issues found are treatment of co-product and land use modeling, including high uncertainty associated with N 2 O and carbon emissions from cultivated soil. Furthermore, a direct correlation between how soil emissions were modeled and increasing values for calculated GHG emission has been found. A robust biodiesel life-cycle modeling has been implemented and the main sources of uncertainty have been investigated to show how uncertainty can be addressed to improve the transparency and reliability of results. Recommendations for further research work concerning the improvement of biofuel life cycle modeling are also presented. (author)

Out-of-pile and in-pile temperature noise investigations: a survey of methods results and models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dentico, G.; Giovannini, R.; Marseguerra, M.; Pacilio, N.; Taglienti, S.; Tosi, V.; Vigo, A.; Oguma, R.

1982-01-01

A review is given of the main results obtained from temperature noise measurements performed in out-of-pile sodium loops on fast fuel element mock-ups. Sources of data were thermocouples placed in the central axis of the channel downstream from the bundle end. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models have been applied to several temperature time series; the analysis shows that a simple ARMA (3, 2) model adequately accounts for the observed fluctuations. Finally, highlights of a heat transfer stochastic model are also reported together with a preliminary validation against in-pile experimental data. (author)

An Associative Index Model for the Results List Based on Vannevar Bush's Selection Concept

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Charles; Julien, Charles-Antoine; Leide, John E.

2010-01-01

Introduction: We define the results list problem in information search and suggest the "associative index model", an ad-hoc, user-derived indexing solution based on Vannevar Bush's description of an associative indexing approach for his memex machine. We further define what selection means in indexing terms with reference to Charles…

Integrating an agent-based model into a large-scale hydrological model for evaluating drought management in California

Science.gov (United States)

Sheffield, J.; He, X.; Wada, Y.; Burek, P.; Kahil, M.; Wood, E. F.; Oppenheimer, M.

2017-12-01

California has endured record-breaking drought since winter 2011 and will likely experience more severe and persistent drought in the coming decades under changing climate. At the same time, human water management practices can also affect drought frequency and intensity, which underscores the importance of human behaviour in effective drought adaptation and mitigation. Currently, although a few large-scale hydrological and water resources models (e.g., PCR-GLOBWB) consider human water use and management practices (e.g., irrigation, reservoir operation, groundwater pumping), none of them includes the dynamic feedback between local human behaviors/decisions and the natural hydrological system. It is, therefore, vital to integrate social and behavioral dimensions into current hydrological modeling frameworks. This study applies the agent-based modeling (ABM) approach and couples it with a large-scale hydrological model (i.e., Community Water Model, CWatM) in order to have a balanced representation of social, environmental and economic factors and a more realistic representation of the bi-directional interactions and feedbacks in coupled human and natural systems. In this study, we focus on drought management in California and considers two types of agents, which are (groups of) farmers and state management authorities, and assumed that their corresponding objectives are to maximize the net crop profit and to maintain sufficient water supply, respectively. Farmers' behaviors are linked with local agricultural practices such as cropping patterns and deficit irrigation. More precisely, farmers' decisions are incorporated into CWatM across different time scales in terms of daily irrigation amount, seasonal/annual decisions on crop types and irrigated area as well as the long-term investment of irrigation infrastructure. This simulation-based optimization framework is further applied by performing different sets of scenarios to investigate and evaluate the effectiveness

Global evaluation of runoff from 10 state-of-the-art hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, Hylke E.; van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; de Roo, Ad; Dutra, Emanuel; Fink, Gabriel; Orth, Rene; Schellekens, Jaap

2017-06-01

Observed streamflow data from 966 medium sized catchments (1000-5000 km2) around the globe were used to comprehensively evaluate the daily runoff estimates (1979-2012) of six global hydrological models (GHMs) and four land surface models (LSMs) produced as part of tier-1 of the eartH2Observe project. The models were all driven by the WATCH Forcing Data ERA-Interim (WFDEI) meteorological dataset, but used different datasets for non-meteorologic inputs and were run at various spatial and temporal resolutions, although all data were re-sampled to a common 0. 5° spatial and daily temporal resolution. For the evaluation, we used a broad range of performance metrics related to important aspects of the hydrograph. We found pronounced inter-model performance differences, underscoring the importance of hydrological model uncertainty in addition to climate input uncertainty, for example in studies assessing the hydrological impacts of climate change. The uncalibrated GHMs were found to perform, on average, better than the uncalibrated LSMs in snow-dominated regions, while the ensemble mean was found to perform only slightly worse than the best (calibrated) model. The inclusion of less-accurate models did not appreciably degrade the ensemble performance. Overall, we argue that more effort should be devoted on calibrating and regionalizing the parameters of macro-scale models. We further found that, despite adjustments using gauge observations, the WFDEI precipitation data still contain substantial biases that propagate into the simulated runoff. The early bias in the spring snowmelt peak exhibited by most models is probably primarily due to the widespread precipitation underestimation at high northern latitudes.

Increase of carbon cycle feedback with climate sensitivity: results from a coupled climate and carbon cycle model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Govindasamy, B.; Thompson, S.; Mirin, A.; Wickett, M.; Caldeira, K.; Delire, C.

2005-01-01

Coupled climate and carbon cycle modelling studies have shown that the feedback between global warming and the carbon cycle, in particular the terrestrial carbon cycle, could accelerate climate change and result in greater warming. In this paper we investigate the sensitivity of this feedback for year 2100 global warming in the range of 0 to 8 K. Differing climate sensitivities to increased CO 2 content are imposed on the carbon cycle models for the same emissions. Emissions from the SRES A2 scenario are used. We use a fully coupled climate and carbon cycle model, the INtegrated Climate and CArbon model (INCCA), the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model coupled to the IBIS terrestrial biosphere model and a modified OCMIP ocean biogeochemistry model. In our integrated model, for scenarios with year 2100 global warming increasing from 0 to 8 K, land uptake decreases from 47% to 29% of total CO 2 emissions. Due to competing effects, ocean uptake (16%) shows almost no change at all. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases are 48% higher in the run with 8 K global climate warming than in the case with no warming. Our results indicate that carbon cycle amplification of climate warming will be greater if there is higher climate sensitivity to increased atmospheric CO 2 content; the carbon cycle feedback factor increases from 1.13 to 1.48 when global warming increases from 3.2 to 8 K

The 3D Reference Earth Model: Status and Preliminary Results

Science.gov (United States)

Moulik, P.; Lekic, V.; Romanowicz, B. A.

2017-12-01

In the 20th century, seismologists constructed models of how average physical properties (e.g. density, rigidity, compressibility, anisotropy) vary with depth in the Earth's interior. These one-dimensional (1D) reference Earth models (e.g. PREM) have proven indispensable in earthquake location, imaging of interior structure, understanding material properties under extreme conditions, and as a reference in other fields, such as particle physics and astronomy. Over the past three decades, new datasets motivated more sophisticated efforts that yielded models of how properties vary both laterally and with depth in the Earth's interior. Though these three-dimensional (3D) models exhibit compelling similarities at large scales, differences in the methodology, representation of structure, and dataset upon which they are based, have prevented the creation of 3D community reference models. As part of the REM-3D project, we are compiling and reconciling reference seismic datasets of body wave travel-time measurements, fundamental mode and overtone surface wave dispersion measurements, and normal mode frequencies and splitting functions. These reference datasets are being inverted for a long-wavelength, 3D reference Earth model that describes the robust long-wavelength features of mantle heterogeneity. As a community reference model with fully quantified uncertainties and tradeoffs and an associated publically available dataset, REM-3D will facilitate Earth imaging studies, earthquake characterization, inferences on temperature and composition in the deep interior, and be of improved utility to emerging scientific endeavors, such as neutrino geoscience. Here, we summarize progress made in the construction of the reference long period dataset and present a preliminary version of REM-3D in the upper-mantle. In order to determine the level of detail warranted for inclusion in REM-3D, we analyze the spectrum of discrepancies between models inverted with different subsets of the

Test results from Fermilab 1.5 m model SSC collider dipole magnets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koska, W.; Bossert, R.; Carson, J.; Coulter, K.J.; Delchamps, S.; Gourlay, S.; Jaffery, T.S.; Kinney, W.; Lamm, M.J.; Ozelis, J.P.; Strait, J.; Wake, M.

1991-09-01

We will present results from tests of 1.5 m model SSC collider dipole magnets. These R ampersand D magnets are identical to the 15 m full length dipoles currently being assembled at Fermilab in all important aspects except length. Because of their small size they can be built faster and tested more extensively than the long magnets. The model magnets are used to optimize design parameters for, and to indicate the performance which can be expected from, the 15 m magnets. The are instrumented with voltage taps over the first two current blocks for quench localization and with several arrays of strain gauge transducers for the study of mechanical behavior. The stress at the poles of the inner and outer coils is monitored during construction and, along with end force and shell strain, during excitation. Magnetic measurements are made several times during each magnet's lifetime, including at operating temperature and field. We will report on studies of the quench performance, mechanical behavior and magnetic field of these magnets

Squat Biomechanical Modeling Results from Exercising on the Hybrid Ultimate Lifting Kit

Science.gov (United States)

Gallo, Christopher A.; Thompson, William K.; Lewandowski, Beth E.; Jagodnik, Kathleen M.

2016-01-01

Long duration space travel will expose astronauts to extended periods of reduced gravity. Since gravity is not present to aid loading, astronauts will use resistive and aerobic exercise regimes for the duration of the space flight to minimize loss of bone density, muscle mass and aerobic capacity that occurs during exposure to a reduced gravity environment. Unlike the International Space Station (ISS), the area available for an exercise device in the next generation of spacecraft is limited and therefore compact resistance exercise device prototypes are being developed. The Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) currently on the ISS is being used as a benchmark for the functional performance of these new devices. Biomechanical data collection and computational modeling aid the device design process by quantifying the joint torques and the musculoskeletal forces that occur during exercises performed on the prototype devices. The computational models currently under development utilize the OpenSim software, an open source code for musculoskeletal modeling, with biomechanical input data from test subjects for estimation of muscle and joint loads. The subjects are instrumented with reflective markers for motion capture data collection while exercising on the Hybrid Ultimate Lifting Kit (HULK) prototype device. Ground reaction force data is collected with force plates under the feet and device loading is recorded through load cells internal to the HULK. Test variables include applied device load, narrow or wide foot stance, slow or fast cadence and the harness or long bar interface between the test subject and the device. Data is also obtained using free weights for a comparison to the resistively loaded exercise device. This data is input into the OpenSim biomechanical model, which has been scaled to match the anthropometrics of the test subject, to calculate the body loads. The focus of this presentation is to summarize the results from the full squat exercises

Regionalization of climate model results for the North Sea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kauker, F. [Alfred-Wegener-Institut fuer Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven (Germany); Storch, H. von [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

2000-07-01

A dynamical downscaling for the North Sea is presented. The numerical model used for the study is the coupled ice-ocean model OPYC. In a hindcast of the years 1979 to 1993 it was forced with atmospheric forcing of the ECMWF reanalysis. The models capability in simulating the observed mean state and variability in the North Sea is demonstrated by the hindcast. Two time scale ranges, from weekly to seasonal and the longer-than-seasonal time scales are investigated. Shorter time scales, for storm surges, are not captured by the model formulation. The main modes of variability of sea level, sea-surface circulation, sea-surface temperature, and sea-surface salinity are described and connections to atmospheric phenomena, like the NAO, are discussed. T106 ''time-slice'' simulations with a ''2 x CO{sub 2}'' horizon are used to estimate the effects of a changing climate on the shelf sea ''North Sea''. The ''2 x CO{sub 2}'' changes in the surface forcing are accompanied by changes in the lateral oceanic boundary conditions taken from a global coupled climate model. For ''2 x CO{sub 2}'' the time mean sea level increases up to 25 cm in the German Bight in the winter, where 15 cm are due to the surface forcing and 10 cm due to thermal expansion. This change is compared to the ''natural'' variability as simulated in the ECMWF integration and found to be not outside the range spanned by it. The variability of sea level on the weekly-to-seasonal time-scales is significantly reduced in the scenario integration. The variability on the longer-than-seasonal time-scales in the control and scenario runs is much smaller then in the ECMWF integration. This is traced back to the use of ''time-slice'' experiments. Discriminating between locally forced changes and changes induced at the lateral oceanic boundaries of the model in the circulation and

Results from a 2 x CO2 simulation with the Canadian Climate Centre general circulation model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boer, G.J.

1990-01-01

The Canadian Climate Centre's general circulation model (GCM), GCMII, was used to simulate a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. The experiment was a standard greenhouse gas climate change study, using a three-dimensional atmospheric circulation model coupled to a simple 'slab' ocean and a thermodynamic ice model. This standard experiment retains the sophistication and generality of an atmospheric GCM, is straightforward in its use of simplified ocean and ice models, is comparatively economical of computer time, and permits comparison of results from different models. Features of the second generation GCMII include: higher resolution at T32L10 with a transform grid of 3.75 x 3.75 degree; full diurnal and annual cycles; ocean and sea ice treatment involving specification of ocean transports; modified treatment of land surface processes and hydrology; a parameterization of cloud optical feedback; and a retention of the special application data sets of surface parameters for North America and Europe. Results of the simulation were a globally averaged surface temperature increase of 3.5 degree C; a precipitation and evaporation increase of 3%; an average decrease in soil moisture of 6.6%; a decrease in cloud cover of 2.2%; a 66% decrease in mass of sea ice; and marked changes in other quantities in the polar region. 2 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

Psoriasis: snapshots of the unspoken: using novel methods to explore patients' personal models of psoriasis and the impact on well-being.

Science.gov (United States)

Bundy, C; Borthwick, M; McAteer, H; Cordingley, L; Howells, L; Bristow, P; McBride, S

2014-10-01

People with psoriasis report high levels of undermanaged distress. This is compounded by the problem that some patients find it difficult to discuss their emotions. Distress prevents optimal self-management, which may exacerbate psoriasis flares, thereby creating a vicious cycle. To offer people with psoriasis a novel way of expressing their personal models of psoriasis in order to gain a better understanding of their experiences of living with the condition. We used a qualitative technique - asking people with psoriasis to complete a postcard entitled 'Dear Psoriasis...' - to collect survey data on their personal models of psoriasis. One hundred and four returned postcards provided new insights into the extent of and reasons for distress in psoriasis. Seven dominant themes emerged: identity and relationships; battleground; control; emotional consequences; hypervigilance; coping; treatment burden. Reports of distress were common, and for many it was long-standing. Some reported low self-esteem and self-denigration bordering on self-loathing, and described being hypervigilant and in a constant battle with their skin. Many people did not expect to have intimate relationships, resulting in reduced social support for patients in the future. This research underscores the need for patient support and psychological treatment to be made available as part of routine care. © 2014 British Association of Dermatologists.

Field studies of submerged-diffuser thermal plumes with comparisons to predictive model results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frigo, A.A.; Paddock, R.A.; Ditmars, J.D.

1976-01-01

Thermal plumes from submerged discharges of cooling water from two power plants on Lake Michigan were studied. The system for the acquisition of water temperatures and ambient conditions permitted the three-dimensional structure of the plumes to be determined. The Zion Nuclear Power Station has two submerged discharge structures separated by only 94 m. Under conditions of flow from both structures, interaction between the two plumes resulted in larger thermal fields than would be predicted by the superposition of single non-interacting plumes. Maximum temperatures in the near-field region of the plume compared favorably with mathematical model predictions. A comparison of physical-model predictions for the plume at the D. C. Cook Nuclear Plant with prototype measurements indicated good agreement in the near-field region, but differences in the far-field occurred as similitude was not preserved there

Uranium dioxide-sodium interactions. Development of a theoretical model. Fitting of this model to the experimental results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Syrmalenios, Panayotis

1973-01-01

This research thesis addresses the issue of safety of fast neutron reactors, and more particularly is a contribution of the study of mechanisms of interaction between molten fuel and sodium. It aims at developing tools of prediction of consequences of three main types of accidents: local fusion of a fuel rod and contact of the fuel with the surrounding sodium, failure of an assembly due to the fusion of several rods and fuel-coolant interaction within the assembly, and fuel-coolant interaction at the level of the reactor core. The author first proposes a bibliographical analysis of experimental and theoretical studies related to this issue of interaction between a hot body and a cold liquid, and of its consequences. Then, he introduces a mathematical model and its resolution method, and reports the use of the associated code (Corfou) for the interpretation of experimental results: expulsion of cold sodium column by expansion of an overheated sodium mass, fusion of a rod by Joule effect, interaction between UO_2 molten by high frequency with liquid sodium. Finally, the author discusses a comparison between the Corfou code and other models which are being currently developed [fr

The science and necessity of using animal models in the study of necrotizing enterocolitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ares, Guillermo J; McElroy, Steven J; Hunter, Catherine J

2018-02-01

Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) remains one of the highest causes of mortality and of acute and long-term morbidity in premature infants. Multiple factors are involved in the pathophysiology of NEC including the immaturity of the immune system and the complex changing composition of the intestinal microbiome. This is compounded by the fact that the premature infant should ideally still be a developing fetus and has an immature intestinal tract. Because these complexities are beyond the scope of studies in single-cell cultures, animal models are absolutely essential to understand the mechanisms involved in the pathophysiology of NEC and the effects of inflammation on the immature intestinal tract. To this end, investigators have utilized many different species (e.g., rats, mice, rabbits, quails, piglets, and non-human primates) and conditions to develop models of NEC. Each animal has distinct advantages and drawbacks related to its preterm viability, body size, genetic variability, and cost. The choice of animal model is strongly influenced by the scientific question being addressed. While no model perfectly mimics human NEC, each has greatly improved our understanding of disease. Examples of recent discoveries in NEC pathogenesis and prevention underscore the importance of continued animal research in NEC. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Deep Learning Based Solar Flare Forecasting Model. I. Results for Line-of-sight Magnetograms

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Xin; Wang, Huaning; Xu, Long; Liu, Jinfu; Li, Rong; Dai, Xinghua

2018-03-01

Solar flares originate from the release of the energy stored in the magnetic field of solar active regions, the triggering mechanism for these flares, however, remains unknown. For this reason, the conventional solar flare forecast is essentially based on the statistic relationship between solar flares and measures extracted from observational data. In the current work, the deep learning method is applied to set up the solar flare forecasting model, in which forecasting patterns can be learned from line-of-sight magnetograms of solar active regions. In order to obtain a large amount of observational data to train the forecasting model and test its performance, a data set is created from line-of-sight magnetogarms of active regions observed by SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI from 1996 April to 2015 October and corresponding soft X-ray solar flares observed by GOES. The testing results of the forecasting model indicate that (1) the forecasting patterns can be automatically reached with the MDI data and they can also be applied to the HMI data; furthermore, these forecasting patterns are robust to the noise in the observational data; (2) the performance of the deep learning forecasting model is not sensitive to the given forecasting periods (6, 12, 24, or 48 hr); (3) the performance of the proposed forecasting model is comparable to that of the state-of-the-art flare forecasting models, even if the duration of the total magnetograms continuously spans 19.5 years. Case analyses demonstrate that the deep learning based solar flare forecasting model pays attention to areas with the magnetic polarity-inversion line or the strong magnetic field in magnetograms of active regions.

Insight into collision zone dynamics from topography: numerical modelling results and observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. D. Bottrill

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Dynamic models of subduction and continental collision are used to predict dynamic topography changes on the overriding plate. The modelling results show a distinct evolution of topography on the overriding plate, during subduction, continental collision and slab break-off. A prominent topographic feature is a temporary (few Myrs basin on the overriding plate after initial collision. This "collisional mantle dynamic basin" (CMDB is caused by slab steepening drawing, material away from the base of the overriding plate. Also, during this initial collision phase, surface uplift is predicted on the overriding plate between the suture zone and the CMDB, due to the subduction of buoyant continental material and its isostatic compensation. After slab detachment, redistribution of stresses and underplating of the overriding plate cause the uplift to spread further into the overriding plate. This topographic evolution fits the stratigraphy found on the overriding plate of the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone in Iran and south east Turkey. The sedimentary record from the overriding plate contains Upper Oligocene-Lower Miocene marine carbonates deposited between terrestrial clastic sedimentary rocks, in units such as the Qom Formation and its lateral equivalents. This stratigraphy shows that during the Late Oligocene–Early Miocene the surface of the overriding plate sank below sea level before rising back above sea level, without major compressional deformation recorded in the same area. Our modelled topography changes fit well with this observed uplift and subsidence.

Impact of head models in N170 component source imaging: results in control subjects and ADHD patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beltrachini, L; Blenkmann, A; Ellenrieder, N von; Muravchik, C H; Petroni, A; Urquina, H; Manes, F; Ibáñez, A

2011-01-01

The major goal of evoked related potential studies arise in source localization techniques to identify the loci of neural activity that give rise to a particular voltage distribution measured on the surface of the scalp. In this paper we evaluate the effect of the head model adopted in order to estimate the N170 component source in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) patients and control subjects, considering faces and words stimuli. The standardized low resolution brain electromagnetic tomography algorithm (sLORETA) is used to compare between the three shell spherical head model and a fully realistic model based on the ICBM-152 atlas. We compare their variance on source estimation and analyze the impact on the N170 source localization. Results show that the often used three shell spherical model may lead to erroneous solutions, specially on ADHD patients, so its use is not recommended. Our results also suggest that N170 sources are mainly located in the right occipital fusiform gyrus for faces stimuli and in the left occipital fusiform gyrus for words stimuli, for both control subjects and ADHD patients. We also found a notable decrease on the N170 estimated source amplitude on ADHD patients, resulting in a plausible marker of the disease.

Impact of head models in N170 component source imaging: results in control subjects and ADHD patients