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Sample records for model reproductive number

  1. The type-reproduction number T in models for infectious disease control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heesterbeek, J.A.P.; Roberts, M.G.

    2007-01-01

    A ubiquitous quantity in epidemic modelling is the basic reproduction number R0. This became so popular in the 1990s that ‘All you need know is R0!’ became a familiar catch-phrase. The value of R0 defines, among other things, the control effort needed to eliminate the infection from a homogeneous ho

  2. Spatially explicit models, generalized reproduction numbers and the prediction of patterns of waterborne disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinaldo, A.; Gatto, M.; Mari, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Righetto, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

    2012-12-01

    still lacking. Here, we show that the requirement that all the local reproduction numbers R0 be larger than unity is neither necessary nor sufficient for outbreaks to occur when local settlements are connected by networks of primary and secondary infection mechanisms. To determine onset conditions, we derive general analytical expressions for a reproduction matrix G0 explicitly accounting for spatial distributions of human settlements and pathogen transmission via hydrological and human mobility networks. At disease onset, a generalized reproduction number Λ0 (the dominant eigenvalue of G0) must be larger than unity. We also show that geographical outbreak patterns in complex environments are linked to the dominant eigenvector and to spectral properties of G0. Tests against data and computations for the 2010 Haiti and 2000 KwaZulu-Natal cholera outbreaks, as well as against computations for metapopulation networks, demonstrate that eigenvectors of G0 provide a synthetic and effective tool for predicting the disease course in space and time. Networked connectivity models, describing the interplay between hydrology, epidemiology and social behavior sustaining human mobility, thus prove to be key tools for emergency management of waterborne infections.

  3. Dengue disease, basic reproduction number and control

    CERN Document Server

    Rodrigues, Helena Sofia; Torres, Delfim F M; Zinober, Alan; 10.1080/00207160.2011.554540

    2011-01-01

    Dengue is one of the major international public health concerns. Although progress is underway, developing a vaccine against the disease is challenging. Thus, the main approach to fight the disease is vector control. A model for the transmission of Dengue disease is presented. It consists of eight mutually exclusive compartments representing the human and vector dynamics. It also includes a control parameter (insecticide) in order to fight the mosquito. The model presents three possible equilibria: two disease-free equilibria (DFE) and another endemic equilibrium. It has been proved that a DFE is locally asymptotically stable, whenever a certain epidemiological threshold, known as the basic reproduction number, is less than one. We show that if we apply a minimum level of insecticide, it is possible to maintain the basic reproduction number below unity. A case study, using data of the outbreak that occurred in 2009 in Cape Verde, is presented.

  4. Estimating individual and household reproduction numbers in an emerging epidemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christophe Fraser

    Full Text Available Reproduction numbers, defined as averages of the number of people infected by a typical case, play a central role in tracking infectious disease outbreaks. The aim of this paper is to develop methods for estimating reproduction numbers which are simple enough that they could be applied with limited data or in real time during an outbreak. I present a new estimator for the individual reproduction number, which describes the state of the epidemic at a point in time rather than tracking individuals over time, and discuss some potential benefits. Then, to capture more of the detail that micro-simulations have shown is important in outbreak dynamics, I analyse a model of transmission within and between households, and develop a method to estimate the household reproduction number, defined as the number of households infected by each infected household. This method is validated by numerical simulations of the spread of influenza and measles using historical data, and estimates are obtained for would-be emerging epidemics of these viruses. I argue that the household reproduction number is useful in assessing the impact of measures that target the household for isolation, quarantine, vaccination or prophylactic treatment, and measures such as social distancing and school or workplace closures which limit between-household transmission, all of which play a key role in current thinking on future infectious disease mitigation.

  5. Cholera in Haiti: Reproductive numbers and vaccination coverage estimates

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    Mukandavire, Zindoga; Smith, David L.; Morris, J. Glenn, Jr.

    2013-01-01

    Cholera reappeared in Haiti in October, 2010 after decades of absence. Cases were first detected in Artibonite region and in the ensuing months the disease spread to every department in the country. The rate of increase in the number of cases at the start of epidemics provides valuable information about the basic reproductive number (). Quantitative analysis of such data gives useful information for planning and evaluating disease control interventions, including vaccination. Using a mathematical model, we fitted data on the cumulative number of reported hospitalized cholera cases in Haiti. varied by department, ranging from 1.06 to 2.63. At a national level, 46% vaccination coverage would result in an () debate on the use of cholera vaccines in endemic and non-endemic regions, our results suggest that moderate cholera vaccine coverage would be an important element of disease control in Haiti.

  6. Invasion fitness, inclusive fitness, and reproductive numbers in heterogeneous populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Laurent; Mullon, Charles; Akçay, Erol; Van Cleve, Jeremy

    2016-08-01

    How should fitness be measured to determine which phenotype or "strategy" is uninvadable when evolution occurs in a group-structured population subject to local demographic and environmental heterogeneity? Several fitness measures, such as basic reproductive number, lifetime dispersal success of a local lineage, or inclusive fitness have been proposed to address this question, but the relationships between them and their generality remains unclear. Here, we ascertain uninvadability (all mutant strategies always go extinct) in terms of the asymptotic per capita number of mutant copies produced by a mutant lineage arising as a single copy in a resident population ("invasion fitness"). We show that from invasion fitness uninvadability is equivalently characterized by at least three conceptually distinct fitness measures: (i) lineage fitness, giving the average individual fitness of a randomly sampled mutant lineage member; (ii) inclusive fitness, giving a reproductive value weighted average of the direct fitness costs and relatedness weighted indirect fitness benefits accruing to a randomly sampled mutant lineage member; and (iii) basic reproductive number (and variations thereof) giving lifetime success of a lineage in a single group, and which is an invasion fitness proxy. Our analysis connects approaches that have been deemed different, generalizes the exact version of inclusive fitness to class-structured populations, and provides a biological interpretation of natural selection on a mutant allele under arbitrary strength of selection.

  7. Reproductive numbers, epidemic spread and control in a community of households

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goldstein, E.; Paur, K.; Fraser, C.; Kenah, E.; Wallinga, J.; Lipsitch, M.

    2009-01-01

    Many of the studies on emerging epidemics (such as SARS and pandemic flu) use mass action models to estimate reproductive numbers and the needed control measures. In reality, transmission patterns are more complex due to the presence of various social networks. One level of complexity can be accommo

  8. Case and partnership reproduction numbers for a curable sexually transmitted infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heijne, Janneke C M; Herzog, Sereina A; Althaus, Christian L; Low, Nicola; Kretzschmar, Mirjam

    2013-08-21

    Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are, by definition, transmitted between sexual partners. For curable STIs an infected index case can potentially re-infect the same partner multiple times. Thus, R0, the average number of secondary infections one typical infected individual will produce during his or her infectious period is not necessarily the same as the average number of secondary cases (infected persons). Here we introduce the new concept of the case reproduction number (Rc). In addition, we define the partnership reproduction number (Rp) as the average number of secondary partnerships consisting of two infected individuals one typical infected individual will produce over his or her infectious lifetime. Rp takes into account clearance and re-infection within partnerships, which results in a prolongation of the duration of the infectious period. The two new reproduction numbers were derived for a deterministic pair model with serial monogamous partnerships using infection parameters for Chlamydia trachomatis, an example of a curable STI. We showed that re-infection within partnerships means that curable STIs can be sustained endemically even when the average number of secondary cases a person produces during his or her infectious period is below one. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. In vivo models for male reproductive toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyl, Rochelle W

    2002-05-01

    In Vivo Models for Male Reproductive Toxicology (Rochelle W. Tyl, Research Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina). Assessment of male reproductive function requires a specific set of evaluations of the various steps in successful mating from sperm production to copulation to fertilization to production of a viable litter. This unit outlines the measurements that are standard for determining the effects of treatment with toxicant on the reproductive capacity of male mice and rats.

  10. Estimating the reproductive numbers for the 2008-2009 cholera outbreaks in Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukandavire, Zindoga; Liao, Shu; Wang, Jin; Gaff, Holly; Smith, David L; Morris, J Glenn

    2011-05-24

    Cholera remains an important global cause of morbidity and mortality, capable of causing periodic epidemic disease. Beginning in August 2008, a major cholera epidemic occurred in Zimbabwe, with 98,585 reported cases and 4,287 deaths. The dynamics of such outbreaks, particularly in nonestuarine regions, are not well understood. We explored the utility of mathematical models in understanding transmission dynamics of cholera and in assessing the magnitude of interventions necessary to control epidemic disease. Weekly data on reported cholera cases were obtained from the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Welfare (MoHCW) for the period from November 13, 2008 to July 31, 2009. A mathematical model was formulated and fitted to cumulative cholera cases to estimate the basic reproductive numbers R(0) and the partial reproductive numbers from all 10 provinces for the 2008-2009 Zimbabwe cholera epidemic. Estimated basic reproductive numbers were highly heterogeneous, ranging from a low value of just above unity to 2.72. Partial reproductive numbers were also highly heterogeneous, suggesting that the transmission routes varied by province; human-to-human transmission accounted for 41-95% of all transmission. Our models suggest that the underlying patterns of cholera transmission varied widely from province to province, with a corresponding variation in the amenability of outbreaks in different provinces to control measures such as immunization. These data underscore the heterogeneity of cholera transmission dynamics, potentially linked to differences in environment, socio-economic conditions, and cultural practices. The lack of traditional estuarine reservoirs combined with these estimates of R(0) suggest that mass vaccination against cholera deployed strategically in Zimbabwe and surrounding regions could prevent future cholera epidemics and eventually eliminate cholera from the region.

  11. Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early subexponential growth dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone

    2016-01-01

    Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number generally assume exponential growth in case incidence...... in the first few disease generations, before susceptible depletion sets in. In reality, outbreaks can display subexponential (i.e. polynomial) growth in the first few disease generations, owing to clustering in contact patterns, spatial effects, inhomogeneous mixing, reactive behaviour changes or other...... mechanisms. Here, we introduce the generalized growth model to characterize the early growth profile of outbreaks and estimate the effective reproduction number, with no need for explicit assumptions about the shape of epidemic growth. We demonstrate this phenomenological approach using analytical results...

  12. Generalized reproduction numbers and the prediction of patterns in waterborne disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatto, Marino; Mari, Lorenzo; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Casagrandi, Renato; Righetto, Lorenzo; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2012-11-27

    Understanding, predicting, and controlling outbreaks of waterborne diseases are crucial goals of public health policies, but pose challenging problems because infection patterns are influenced by spatial structure and temporal asynchrony. Although explicit spatial modeling is made possible by widespread data mapping of hydrology, transportation infrastructure, population distribution, and sanitation, the precise condition under which a waterborne disease epidemic can start in a spatially explicit setting is still lacking. Here we show that the requirement that all the local reproduction numbers R0 be larger than unity is neither necessary nor sufficient for outbreaks to occur when local settlements are connected by networks of primary and secondary infection mechanisms. To determine onset conditions, we derive general analytical expressions for a reproduction matrix G0, explicitly accounting for spatial distributions of human settlements and pathogen transmission via hydrological and human mobility networks. At disease onset, a generalized reproduction number Λ0 (the dominant eigenvalue of G0) must be larger than unity. We also show that geographical outbreak patterns in complex environments are linked to the dominant eigenvector and to spectral properties of G0. Tests against data and computations for the 2010 Haiti and 2000 KwaZulu-Natal cholera outbreaks, as well as against computations for metapopulation networks, demonstrate that eigenvectors of G0 provide a synthetic and effective tool for predicting the disease course in space and time. Networked connectivity models, describing the interplay between hydrology, epidemiology, and social behavior sustaining human mobility, thus prove to be key tools for emergency management of waterborne infections.

  13. QSAR Models for Reproductive Toxicity and Endocrine Disruption Activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjan Vračko

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Reproductive toxicity is an important regulatory endpoint, which is required in registration procedures of chemicals used for different purposes (for example pesticides. The in vivo tests are expensive, time consuming and require large numbers of animals, which must be sacrificed. Therefore an effort is ongoing to develop alternative In vitro and in silico methods to evaluate reproductive toxicity. In this review we describe some modeling approaches. In the first example we describe the CAESAR model for prediction of reproductive toxicity; the second example shows a classification model for endocrine disruption potential based on counter propagation artificial neural networks; the third example shows a modeling of relative binding affinity to rat estrogen receptor, and the fourth one shows a receptor dependent modeling experiment.

  14. 2014 ebola outbreak: media events track changes in observed reproductive number.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majumder, Maimuna S; Kluberg, Sheryl; Santillana, Mauricio; Mekaru, Sumiko; Brownstein, John S

    2015-04-28

    In this commentary, we consider the relationship between early outbreak changes in the observed reproductive number of Ebola in West Africa and various media reported interventions and aggravating events. We find that media reports of interventions that provided education, minimized contact, or strengthened healthcare were typically followed by sustained transmission reductions in both Sierra Leone and Liberia. Meanwhile, media reports of aggravating events generally preceded temporary transmission increases in both countries. Given these preliminary findings, we conclude that media reported events could potentially be incorporated into future epidemic modeling efforts to improve mid-outbreak case projections.

  15. Plant and Animal Reproductive Strategies: Lessons from Offspring Size and Number Tradeoffs

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    K. G. Srikanta Dani

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The tradeoff between offspring size and number is ubiquitous and manifestly similar in plants and animals despite fundamental differences between the evolutionary histories of these two major life forms. Fecundity (offspring number primarily affects parental fitness, while offspring size underpins the fitness of parents and offspring. We provide an overview of theoretical models dealing with offspring size and fitness relationships. We follow that with a detailed examination of life-history constraints and environmental effects on offspring size and number, separately in plants and animals. The emphasis is on seed plants, but we endeavor to also summarize information from distinct animal groups—insects, fishes, reptiles, birds, and mammals. Furthermore, we analyse genetic controls on offspring size and number in two model organisms—Arabidopsis and Drosophila. Despite the deep evolutionary divergence between plants and animals, we find four trends in reproductive strategy that are common to both lineages: (i offspring size is generally less variable than offspring number, (ii offspring size increases with increasing parent body size, (iii maternal genes restrict offspring size and increase offspring numbers, while zygotic genes act to increase offspring size; such parent-offspring conflicts are enhanced when there is sibling rivalry, and (iv variation in offspring size increases under sub-optimal (harsh environmental conditions. The most salient difference between plants and animals is that the latter tend to produce larger (fewer offspring under sub-optimal conditions while seed plants invest in smaller (many seeds, suggesting that maternal genetic control over offspring size increases in plants but decreases in animals with parental care. The time is ripe for greater experimental exploration of genetic controls on reproductive allocation and parent-offspring conflicts in plants and animals under sub-optimal (harsh environments.

  16. The final size of an epidemic and its relation to the basic reproduction number

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Viggo

    2011-01-01

    reproduction number R00: There is a unique positive solution giving the size of the epidemic if and only if R00 exceeds unity. When mixing heterogeneities arise only from variation in contact rates and proportionate mixing, the final size of the epidemic in a heterogeneously mixing population is always smaller...... than that in a homogeneously mixing population with the same basic reproduction number R00. For other mixing patterns, the relation may be reversed....

  17. A Dynamic Model of Cultural Reproduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jæger, Mads Meier; Breen, Richard

    2016-01-01

    The authors draw on Pierre Bourdieu’s theory of cultural reproduction to develop a formal model of the pathways through which cultural capital acts to enhance children’s educational and socioeconomic success. The authors’ approach brings conceptual and empirical clarity to an important area of st...

  18. Intervention measures, turning point, and reproduction number for dengue, Singapore, 2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Ying-Hen; Ma, Stefan

    2009-01-01

    The 2005 dengue outbreak in Singapore cumulated in > 14,000 cases and 27 reported dengue deaths. We fit the single-phase Richards model to weekly dengue notification numbers to detect the turning point for the outbreak, which enables us to study the impact of intervention measures relating to the turning point. The results indicate that turning point had most likely occurred in late August or early September, before large-scale intervention measures were implemented. The "initial" reproduction number for the outbreak is estimated to be ~1.89-2.23 (95% confidence interval: 1.15-3.00). One of the lessons learned from the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak is that multiple phases of outbreak were observed in some affected countries when efforts to intensify intervention or to sustain vigilance were compromised. Intensive and continuing efforts in the implementation of control measures are essential in reducing further dengue occurrences during any resurgence of dengue.

  19. A critical number of workers in a honeybee colony triggers investment in reproduction.

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    Smith, Michael L; Ostwald, Madeleine M; Loftus, J Carter; Seeley, Thomas D

    2014-10-01

    Social insect colonies, like individual organisms, must decide as they develop how to allocate optimally their resources among survival, growth, and reproduction. Only when colonies reach a certain state do they switch from investing purely in survival and growth to investing also in reproduction. But how do worker bees within a colony detect that their colony has reached the state where it is adaptive to begin investing in reproduction? Previous work has shown that larger honeybee colonies invest more in reproduction (i.e., the production of drones and queens), however, the term 'larger' encompasses multiple colony parameters including number of adult workers, size of the nest, amount of brood, and size of the honey stores. These colony parameters were independently increased in this study to test which one(s) would increase a colony's investment in reproduction via males. This was assayed by measuring the construction of drone comb, the special type of comb in which drones are reared. Only an increase in the number of workers stimulated construction of drone comb. Colonies with over 4,000 workers began building drone comb, independent of the other colony parameters. These results show that attaining a critical number of workers is the key parameter for honeybee colonies to start to shift resources towards reproduction. These findings are relevant to other social systems in which a group's members must adjust their behavior as a function of the group's size.

  20. A critical number of workers in a honeybee colony triggers investment in reproduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Michael L.; Ostwald, Madeleine M.; Loftus, J. Carter; Seeley, Thomas D.

    2014-10-01

    Social insect colonies, like individual organisms, must decide as they develop how to allocate optimally their resources among survival, growth, and reproduction. Only when colonies reach a certain state do they switch from investing purely in survival and growth to investing also in reproduction. But how do worker bees within a colony detect that their colony has reached the state where it is adaptive to begin investing in reproduction? Previous work has shown that larger honeybee colonies invest more in reproduction (i.e., the production of drones and queens), however, the term `larger' encompasses multiple colony parameters including number of adult workers, size of the nest, amount of brood, and size of the honey stores. These colony parameters were independently increased in this study to test which one(s) would increase a colony's investment in reproduction via males. This was assayed by measuring the construction of drone comb, the special type of comb in which drones are reared. Only an increase in the number of workers stimulated construction of drone comb. Colonies with over 4,000 workers began building drone comb, independent of the other colony parameters. These results show that attaining a critical number of workers is the key parameter for honeybee colonies to start to shift resources towards reproduction. These findings are relevant to other social systems in which a group's members must adjust their behavior as a function of the group's size.

  1. The basic reproductive number of tick-borne encephalitis virus. An empirical approach.

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    Foppa, Ivo M

    2005-12-01

    Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) is reciprocally transmitted between Ixodes ricinus ticks and small mammals. Recently, transmission between co-feeding ticks has been postulated as an epidemiological by important mechanism of perpetuating the agent. To empirically examine the question whether the "traditional" mode of transmission is sufficient to maintain enzootic TBEV transmission, the basic reproductive number R(0) of TBEV could be estimated under this model for sites in which TBEV is enzootic. I propose an empirical estimator of R(0) for TBEV which is based on longitudinal stage-specific local tick infestation densities assessed by live trapping of small mammals. A Gibbs sampler-based 95%-credibility interval is presented. When applied to published field data from TBEV enzootic sites sub-critical R(0) estimates are obtained for both sites. I discuss potential shortcomings of this method and possible implications of these findings on the discussion of supplemental mechanisms of transmission.

  2. Estimation of the reproductive number of the Spanish flu epidemic in Geneva, Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, G; Ammon, C E; Hengartner, N W; Hyman, J M

    2006-11-10

    The 1918 influenza pandemic known as the "Spanish Flu" has been the worst in recent history with estimated worldwide mortality ranging from 20 to 100 million deaths. Using epidemic modeling and hospital notification data during the 1918 influenza pandemic in the Canton of Geneva, Switzerland, we estimated the reproductive numbers of the first and second waves of influenza infection to be R(1)=1.49 (95% CI: 1.45-1.53) and R(2)=3.75 (95% CI: 3.57-3.93), respectively. Our estimates indicate that containment of the next influenza pandemic could require strict interventions that include effective isolation strategies in hospitals and reductions in the susceptibility of the general population.

  3. Estimation of basic reproductive number of flu-like syndrome in a primary school in Iran

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    AliAkbar Haghdoost

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Iran, similar to other countries, had faced H1N1 flu outbreak in 2009. In order to assess its transmission dynamic, we estimated its force of infection (β and basic reproductive number (R 0 . Methods: Within a middle size primary school in Iran, we actively followed students and detected flu-like syndrome among students and their families in the first three months of academic year; October through December 2009. We estimated the probability of disease transmission within families (β fitting random effects Poisson regression model. Moreover, R 0 within the school was computed based on the number of detected cases. Results: In 452 students, 204 influenza-like syndromes were detected. The estimated β within families was 0.10; increasing one infectious member within each family was associated with 30% increase in this number. The estimated R 0 for the first month was 1.21 (95% C.I.: 0.99, 1.47; corresponding numbers for the first two and first three months were 1.28 (95% C.I.: 1.05, 1.54 and 1.32 (95% C.I.: 1.11, 1.59, respectively. Conclusion: It seems that the dynamic transmission of H1N1 virus was more or less comparable with that in other seasonal species. Our findings showed that the virus mainly circulated among students within schools. In addition, it seems that the transmission rate within families was relatively high.

  4. A Dynamic Model of Cultural Reproduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jæger, Mads Meier; Breen, Richard

    2016-01-01

    of study. Their model describes how parents transmit cultural capital to their children and how children convert cultural capital into educational success. It also provides a behavioral framework for interpreting parental investments in cultural capital. The authors review results from existing empirical......The authors draw on Pierre Bourdieu’s theory of cultural reproduction to develop a formal model of the pathways through which cultural capital acts to enhance children’s educational and socioeconomic success. The authors’ approach brings conceptual and empirical clarity to an important area...

  5. Vector-borne diseases: the basic reproduction number R0 and risk maps

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartemink, N.A.

    2009-01-01

    This thesis deals with the derivation of the basic reproduction number (R0) for vector-borne diseases, in the context of studying the effect of climate change on the risk of emergence diseases. Vector-borne diseases are transmitted from an infected individual to another individual by vectors, usuall

  6. A new framework and software to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers during epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cori, Anne; Ferguson, Neil M; Fraser, Christophe; Cauchemez, Simon

    2013-11-01

    The quantification of transmissibility during epidemics is essential to designing and adjusting public health responses. Transmissibility can be measured by the reproduction number R, the average number of secondary cases caused by an infected individual. Several methods have been proposed to estimate R over the course of an epidemic; however, they are usually difficult to implement for people without a strong background in statistical modeling. Here, we present a ready-to-use tool for estimating R from incidence time series, which is implemented in popular software including Microsoft Excel (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, Washington). This tool produces novel, statistically robust analytical estimates of R and incorporates uncertainty in the distribution of the serial interval (the time between the onset of symptoms in a primary case and the onset of symptoms in secondary cases). We applied the method to 5 historical outbreaks; the resulting estimates of R are consistent with those presented in the literature. This tool should help epidemiologists quantify temporal changes in the transmission intensity of future epidemics by using surveillance data.

  7. Modeling reproductive decisions with simple heuristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Todd

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Many of the reproductive decisions that humans make happen without much planning or forethought, arising instead through the use of simple choice rules or heuristics that involve relatively little information and processing. Nonetheless, these heuristic-guided decisions are typically beneficial, owing to humans' ecological rationality - the evolved fit between our constrained decision mechanisms and the adaptive problems we face. OBJECTIVE This paper reviews research on the ecological rationality of human decision making in the domain of reproduction, showing how fertility-related decisions are commonly made using various simple heuristics matched to the structure of the environment in which they are applied, rather than being made with information-hungry mechanisms based on optimization or rational economic choice. METHODS First, heuristics for sequential mate search are covered; these heuristics determine when to stop the process of mate search by deciding that a good-enough mate who is also mutually interested has been found, using a process of aspiration-level setting and assessing. These models are tested via computer simulation and comparison to demographic age-at-first-marriage data. Next, a heuristic process of feature-based mate comparison and choice is discussed, in which mate choices are determined by a simple process of feature-matching with relaxing standards over time. Parental investment heuristics used to divide resources among offspring are summarized. Finally, methods for testing the use of such mate choice heuristics in a specific population over time are then described.

  8. Are there optimal numbers of oocytes, spermatozoa and embryos in assisted reproduction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milachich, Tanya; Shterev, Atanas

    2016-08-01

    The aim of this overview is to discuss the current information about the search for the optimum yield of gametes in assisted reproduction, as one of the major pillars of IVF success. The first topic is focused on the number of male gametes and the possible impact of some genetic traits on these parameters. The number of spermatozoa did not seem to be crucial when there is no severe male factor of infertility. Genetic testing prior to using those sperm cells is very important. Different methods were applied in order to elect the "best" spermatozoa according to specific indications. The next problem discussed is the importance of the number of oocytes collected. Several studies have agreed that "15 oocytes is the perfect number," as the number of mature oocytes is more important. However, if elective single embryo transfer is performed, the optimal number of oocytes will enable a proper embryo selection. The third problem discussed concerns fertility preservation. Many educational programs promote and encourage procreation at maternal ages between 20-35 years, since assisted reproduction is unable to fully overcome the effects of female aging and fertility loss after that age. It is also strongly recommended to ensure a reasonable number of cryopreserved mature oocytes, preferably in younger ages (<35), for which an average of two stimulation cycles are likely required. For embryo cryopreservation, the "freeze all" strategy suggests the vitrification of good embryos, therefore quality is prior to number and patient recruitment for this strategy should be performed cautiously.

  9. Habitat fragmentation and reproductive success: a structural equation modelling approach.

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    Le Tortorec, Eric; Helle, Samuli; Käyhkö, Niina; Suorsa, Petri; Huhta, Esa; Hakkarainen, Harri

    2013-09-01

    1. There is great interest on the effects of habitat fragmentation, whereby habitat is lost and the spatial configuration of remaining habitat patches is altered, on individual breeding performance. However, we still lack consensus of how this important process affects reproductive success, and whether its effects are mainly due to reduced fecundity or nestling survival. 2. The main reason for this may be the way that habitat fragmentation has been previously modelled. Studies have treated habitat loss and altered spatial configuration as two independent processes instead of as one hierarchical and interdependent process, and therefore have not been able to consider the relative direct and indirect effects of habitat loss and altered spatial configuration. 3. We investigated how habitat (i.e. old forest) fragmentation, caused by intense forest harvesting at the territory and landscape scales, is associated with the number of fledged offspring of an area-sensitive passerine, the Eurasian treecreeper (Certhia familiaris). We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to examine the complex hierarchical associations between habitat loss and altered spatial configuration on the number of fledged offspring, by controlling for individual condition and weather conditions during incubation. 4. Against generally held expectations, treecreeper reproductive success did not show a significant association with habitat fragmentation measured at the territory scale. Instead, our analyses suggested that an increasing amount of habitat at the landscape scale caused a significant increase in nest predation rates, leading to reduced reproductive success. This effect operated directly on nest predation rates, instead of acting indirectly through altered spatial configuration. 5. Because habitat amount and configuration are inherently strongly collinear, particularly when multiple scales are considered, our study demonstrates the usefulness of a SEM approach for hierarchical partitioning

  10. From Concurrency Models to Numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hermanns, Holger; Zhang, Lijun

    2011-01-01

    Discrete-state Markov processes are very common models used for performance and dependability evaluation of, for example, distributed information and communication systems. Over the last fifteen years, compositional model construction and model checking algorithms have been studied for these proc...

  11. From Concurrency Models to Numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hermanns, Holger; Zhang, Lijun

    2011-01-01

    Discrete-state Markov processes are very common models used for performance and dependability evaluation of, for example, distributed information and communication systems. Over the last fifteen years, compositional model construction and model checking algorithms have been studied for these proc...

  12. Reproductive Behavior and Personality Traits of the Five Factor Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jokela, Markus; Alvergne, Alexandra; Pollet, Thomas V.; Lummaa, Virpi

    2011-01-01

    We examined associations between Five Factor Model personality traits and various outcomes of reproductive behavior in a sample of 15 729 women and men from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS) and Midlife Development in the United States (MIDUS) survey. Personality and reproductive history was se

  13. Zika in Rio de Janeiro: Assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villela, D A M; Bastos, L S; DE Carvalho, L M; Cruz, O G; Gomes, M F C; Durovni, B; Lemos, M C; Saraceni, V; Coelho, F C; Codeço, C T

    2017-06-01

    Zika virus infection was declared a public health emergency of international concern in February 2016 in response to the outbreak in Brazil and its suspected link with congenital anomalies. In this study, we use notification data and disease natural history parameters to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0) of Zika in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We also obtain estimates of R 0 of dengue from time series of dengue cases in the outbreaks registered in 2002 and 2012 in the city, when DENV-3 and DENV-4 serotypes, respectively, had just emerged. Our estimates of the basic reproduction number for Zika in Rio de Janeiro based on surveillance notifications (R 0 = 2·33, 95% CI: 1·97-2·97) were higher than those obtained for dengue in the city (year 2002: R 0 = 1·70 [1·50-2·02]; year 2012: R 0 = 1·25 [1·18-1·36]). Given the role of Aedes aegypti as vector of both the Zika and dengue viruses, we also derive R 0 of Zika as a function of both dengue reproduction number and entomological and epidemiological parameters for dengue and Zika. Using the dengue outbreaks from previous years allowed us to estimate the potential R 0 of Zika. Our estimates were closely in agreement with our first Zika's R 0 estimation from notification data. Hence, these results validate deriving the potential risk of Zika transmission in areas with recurring dengue outbreaks. Whether transmission routes other than vector-based can sustain a Zika epidemic still deserves attention, but our results suggest that the Zika outbreak in Rio de Janeiro emerged due to population susceptibility and ubiquitous presence of Ae. aegypti.

  14. Lifetime number of mates interacts with female age to determine reproductive success in female guppies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan P Evans

    Full Text Available In many species, mating with multiple males confers benefits to females, but these benefits may be offset by the direct and indirect costs associated with elevated mating frequency. Although mating frequency (number of mating events is often positively associated with the degree of multiple mating (actual number of males mated, most studies have experimentally separated these effects when exploring their implications for female fitness. In this paper I describe an alternative approach using the guppy Poecilia reticulata, a livebearing freshwater fish in which females benefit directly and indirectly from mating with multiple males via consensual matings but incur direct and indirect costs of mating as a consequence of male sexual harassment. In the present study, females were experimentally assigned different numbers of mates throughout their lives in order to explore how elevated mating frequency and multiple mating combine to influence lifetime reproductive success (LRS and survival (i.e. direct components of female fitness. Under this mating design, survival and LRS were not significantly affected by mating treatment, but there was a significant interaction between brood size and reproductive cycle (a correlate of female age because females assigned to the high mating treatment produced significantly fewer offspring later in life compared to their low-mating counterparts. This negative effect of mating treatment later in life may be important in these relatively long-lived fishes, and this effect may be further exacerbated by the known cross-generational fitness costs of sexual harassment in guppies.

  15. Local Influence Analysis for Semiparametric Reproductive Dispersion Nonlinear Models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xue-dong CHEN; Nian-sheng TANG; Xue-ren WANG

    2012-01-01

    The present paper proposes a semiparametric reproductive dispersion nonlinear model (SRDNM)which is an extension of the nonlinear reproductive dispersion models and the semiparameter regression models.Maximum penalized likelihood estimates (MPLEs) of unknown parameters and nonparametric functions in SRDNM are presented.Assessment of local influence for various perturbation schemes are investigated.Some local influence diagnostics are given.A simulation study and a real example are used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.

  16. reproduction

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    slow, yet no other field in medicine has integrated new knowledge ... Many countries have introduced tight ethical regulation ... and research, such as human reproductive cloning." Howover ... human pregnancy and birth after embryo donation.

  17. Modelling in environments without numbers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grigoraş, D.R.; Hoede, C.

    2008-01-01

    In order to study how students are handling modelling situations, we address the type of tasks without an obvious mathematical character. The mathematical elements are somehow hidden and are to be elaborated by the students, if their solving strategy goes in that direction. The main reason why we el

  18. Introduction to Animal Reproduction. Instructor Guide [and] Student Reference. Volume 28, Number 5 [and] Volume 28, Number 6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peiter, Andrea; And Others

    This instructor guide and the corresponding student reference contain seven lessons about animal reproduction for inclusion in Vocational Instructional Management System (VIMS) agricultural education courses. The lessons cover the following topics: the male and female reproductive systems, puberty and the estrous cycle, conception and gestation,…

  19. Estimation of additive and dominance variance for reproductive traits from different models in Duroc purebred

    OpenAIRE

    Talerngsak Angkuraseranee

    2010-01-01

    The additive and dominance genetic variances of 5,801 Duroc reproductive and growth records were estimated usingBULPF90 PC-PACK. Estimates were obtained for number born alive (NBA), birth weight (BW), number weaned (NW), andweaning weight (WW). Data were analyzed using two mixed model equations. The first model included fixed effects andrandom effects identifying inbreeding depression, additive gene effect and permanent environments effects. The secondmodel was similar to the first model, but...

  20. [Coeliac disease and reproduction: possible in vivo models].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stazi, Anna Velia

    2005-01-01

    Presently there are no in vivo models to study the different effects of coeliac disease (CD) including the increase of reproductive risks. CD is a multifactorial condition which requires both an exogenous element (gluten) and complex genetic factors; moreover, CD is associated to several endocrine, immune and reproductive diseases. There are no adequate in vivo models for the systemic complications of CD; in particular, there are no genetic knock-out models. However, models are available for gluten enteropathy such as Irish Setter and Balb/c and BDF1 mouse strains, and also for endocrine-immune diseases associated to CD such as BB rats and NOD mice. These models could be used to study reproductive aspects. This is desirable because a new model for dermatitis herpetiformis tightly associated with CD, that uses HLA-DQ8 transgenic NOD mice, has already been identified.

  1. A missing model in reproductive skew theory: the bordered tug-of-war.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeve, Hudson Kern; Shen, Sheng-Feng

    2006-05-30

    Models of reproductive skew can be classified into two groups: transactional models, in which group members yield shares of reproduction to each other in return for cooperation, and tug-of-war models, in which group members invest group resources in a tug-of-war over their respective reproductive shares. We synthesize these two models to yield a "bordered tug-of-war" model in which the internal tug-of-war is limited ("bordered") by the requirement that group members must achieve a certain amount of reproduction lest they pursue a noncooperative option leading to group breakup. Previous attempts to synthesize these two models did not allow for the fact that the tug-of-war will affect group output, which in turn feeds back on the reproductive payments required by group members to remain cooperative. The bordered tug-of-war model, which does not assume complete reproductive control by any individual and allows for conflict within groups, predicts that the degree of within-group selfishness will increase as the noncooperative options become less attractive, e.g., as ecological constraints on solitary breeding increase. When the noncooperative option involves fighting for the group resource (e.g., territory) and leaving if the fight is lost, the subordinate's overall share of reproduction is predicted to be independent of its relatedness to the dominant and to increase the greater its probability of winning the fight, the less the value of the territory, and the greater its personal payoff for leaving. The unique predictions of the bordered tug-of-war model may fit skew data from a number of species, including meerkats, lions, and wood mice.

  2. Sexual-Reproductive Health Belief Model of college students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoomeh Simbar

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available Sexual- reproductive health of youth is one of the most unknown aspects of our community, while the world, including our country is faced with the risk of AIDS spreading. The aim of this study was to describe Health Belief Model (HBM of the students about sexual-reproductive health behaviors and evaluate the ability of the model in predicting related behaviors. By using quota sampling, 1117 male and female students of Qazvin Medical Science and International universities were included in the study in 1991. A self-completed questionnaire was prepared containing close questions based on HBM components including perceived threats (susceptibility and severity of related diseases, perceived reproductive benefits and barriers and self efficacy of youth about reproductive health. A total of 645 of participants were female and 457 were male (Mean age 21.4±2.4 and 22.7±3.5, respectively. The Health Belief Model of the students showed that they perceived a moderate threat for AIDS and venereal diseases and their health outcomes. Most of them perceived the benefits of reproductive health behaviors. They believed that the ability of youth in considering reproductive health is low or moderate. However, they noted to some barriers for spreading of reproductive health in youth including inadequacy of services. Boys felt a higher level of threat for acquiring the AIDS and venereal diseases in compare to girls, but girls had a higher knowledge about these diseases and their complications. The Health Belief Model of the students with premarital intercourse behavior was not significantly different with the students without this behavior (Mann-Withney, P<0.05. Female students and the students without the history of premarital intercourse had significantly more positive attitude towards abstinence, comparing to male students and students with the history of premarital intercourse, respectively (Mann-Withney, P<0.05. Seventy five percent of students believed in

  3. Microphysiological modeling of the reproductive tract: a fertile endeavor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eddie, Sharon L; Kim, J Julie; Woodruff, Teresa K; Burdette, Joanna E

    2014-09-01

    Preclinical toxicity testing in animal models is a cornerstone of the drug development process, yet it is often unable to predict adverse effects and tolerability issues in human subjects. Species-specific responses to investigational drugs have led researchers to utilize human tissues and cells to better estimate human toxicity. Unfortunately, human cell-derived models are imperfect because toxicity is assessed in isolation, removed from the normal physiologic microenvironment. Microphysiological modeling often referred to as 'organ-on-a-chip' or 'human-on-a-chip' places human tissue into a microfluidic system that mimics the complexity of human in vivo physiology, thereby allowing for toxicity testing on several cell types, tissues, and organs within a more biologically relevant environment. Here we describe important concepts when developing a repro-on-a-chip model. The development of female and male reproductive microfluidic systems is critical to sex-based in vitro toxicity and drug testing. This review addresses the biological and physiological aspects of the male and female reproductive systems in vivo and what should be considered when designing a microphysiological human-on-a-chip model. Additionally, interactions between the reproductive tract and other systems are explored, focusing on the impact of factors and hormones produced by the reproductive tract and disease pathophysiology. © 2014 by the Society for Experimental Biology and Medicine.

  4. Lepton number violation in 331 models

    CERN Document Server

    Fonseca, Renato M

    2016-01-01

    Different models based on the extended $SU(3)_{C}\\times SU(3)_{L}\\times U(1)_{X}$ (331) gauge group have been proposed over the past four decades. Yet, despite being an active research topic, the status of lepton number in 331 models has not been fully addressed in the literature, and furthermore many of the original proposals can not explain the observed neutrino masses. In this paper we review the basic features of various 331 models, focusing on potential sources of lepton number violation. We then describe different modifications which can be made to the original models in order to accommodate neutrino (and charged lepton) masses.

  5. Lepton number violation in 331 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, Renato M.; Hirsch, Martin

    2016-12-01

    Different models based on the extended S U (3 )C×S U (3 )L×U (1 )X (331) gauge group have been proposed over the past four decades. Yet, despite being an active research topic, the status of lepton number in 331 models has not been fully addressed in the literature, and furthermore many of the original proposals can not explain the observed neutrino masses. In this paper we review the basic features of various 331 models, focusing on potential sources of lepton number violation. We then describe different modifications which can be made to the original models in order to accommodate neutrino (and charged lepton) masses.

  6. Mapping the basic reproduction number (Ro) for vector-borne diseases: A case study on bluetongue virus.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartemink, N.; Purse, B.V.; Meiswinkel, R.; Brown, H.E.; Koeijer, de A.A.; Elbers, A.R.W.; Boender, G.J.; Rogers, D.J.; Heesterbeek, J.A.P.

    2009-01-01

    Geographical maps indicating the value of the basic reproduction number, R0, can be used to identify areas of higher risk for an outbreak after an introduction. We develop a methodology to create R0 maps for vector-borne diseases, using bluetongue virus as a case study. This method provides a tool

  7. Incorporating Temperature-driven Seasonal Variation in Survival, Growth, and Reproduction Models for Small Fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seasonal variation in survival and reproduction can be a large source of prediction uncertainty in models used for conservation and management. A seasonally varying matrix population model is developed that incorporates temperature-driven differences in mortality and reproduction...

  8. Nowcasting sunshine number using logistic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brabec, Marek; Badescu, Viorel; Paulescu, Marius

    2013-04-01

    In this paper, we present a formalized approach to statistical modeling of the sunshine number, binary indicator of whether the Sun is covered by clouds introduced previously by Badescu (Theor Appl Climatol 72:127-136, 2002). Our statistical approach is based on Markov chain and logistic regression and yields fully specified probability models that are relatively easily identified (and their unknown parameters estimated) from a set of empirical data (observed sunshine number and sunshine stability number series). We discuss general structure of the model and its advantages, demonstrate its performance on real data and compare its results to classical ARIMA approach as to a competitor. Since the model parameters have clear interpretation, we also illustrate how, e.g., their inter-seasonal stability can be tested. We conclude with an outlook to future developments oriented to construction of models allowing for practically desirable smooth transition between data observed with different frequencies and with a short discussion of technical problems that such a goal brings.

  9. QSPR Models for Octane Number Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jabir H. Al-Fahemi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR is performed as a means to predict octane number of hydrocarbons via correlating properties to parameters calculated from molecular structure; such parameters are molecular mass M, hydration energy EH, boiling point BP, octanol/water distribution coefficient logP, molar refractivity MR, critical pressure CP, critical volume CV, and critical temperature CT. Principal component analysis (PCA and multiple linear regression technique (MLR were performed to examine the relationship between multiple variables of the above parameters and the octane number of hydrocarbons. The results of PCA explain the interrelationships between octane number and different variables. Correlation coefficients were calculated using M.S. Excel to examine the relationship between multiple variables of the above parameters and the octane number of hydrocarbons. The data set was split into training of 40 hydrocarbons and validation set of 25 hydrocarbons. The linear relationship between the selected descriptors and the octane number has coefficient of determination (R2=0.932, statistical significance (F=53.21, and standard errors (s =7.7. The obtained QSPR model was applied on the validation set of octane number for hydrocarbons giving RCV2=0.942 and s=6.328.

  10. Stochastic modeling of sunshine number data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brabec, Marek, E-mail: mbrabec@cs.cas.cz [Department of Nonlinear Modeling, Institute of Computer Science, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Pod Vodarenskou vezi 2, 182 07 Prague 8 (Czech Republic); Paulescu, Marius [Physics Department, West University of Timisoara, V. Parvan 4, 300223 Timisoara (Romania); Badescu, Viorel [Candida Oancea Institute, Polytechnic University of Bucharest, Spl. Independentei 313, 060042 Bucharest (Romania)

    2013-11-13

    In this paper, we will present a unified statistical modeling framework for estimation and forecasting sunshine number (SSN) data. Sunshine number has been proposed earlier to describe sunshine time series in qualitative terms (Theor Appl Climatol 72 (2002) 127-136) and since then, it was shown to be useful not only for theoretical purposes but also for practical considerations, e.g. those related to the development of photovoltaic energy production. Statistical modeling and prediction of SSN as a binary time series has been challenging problem, however. Our statistical model for SSN time series is based on an underlying stochastic process formulation of Markov chain type. We will show how its transition probabilities can be efficiently estimated within logistic regression framework. In fact, our logistic Markovian model can be relatively easily fitted via maximum likelihood approach. This is optimal in many respects and it also enables us to use formalized statistical inference theory to obtain not only the point estimates of transition probabilities and their functions of interest, but also related uncertainties, as well as to test of various hypotheses of practical interest, etc. It is straightforward to deal with non-homogeneous transition probabilities in this framework. Very importantly from both physical and practical points of view, logistic Markov model class allows us to test hypotheses about how SSN dependents on various external covariates (e.g. elevation angle, solar time, etc.) and about details of the dynamic model (order and functional shape of the Markov kernel, etc.). Therefore, using generalized additive model approach (GAM), we can fit and compare models of various complexity which insist on keeping physical interpretation of the statistical model and its parts. After introducing the Markovian model and general approach for identification of its parameters, we will illustrate its use and performance on high resolution SSN data from the Solar

  11. Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number (R0 for African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV Transmission between Pig Herds in Uganda.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike B Barongo

    Full Text Available African swine fever (ASF is a highly contagious, lethal and economically devastating haemorrhagic disease of domestic pigs. Insights into the dynamics and scale of virus transmission can be obtained from estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0. We estimate R0 for ASF virus in small holder, free-range pig production system in Gulu, Uganda. The estimation was based on data collected from outbreaks that affected 43 villages (out of the 289 villages with an overall pig population of 26,570 between April 2010 and November 2011. A total of 211 outbreaks met the criteria for inclusion in the study. Three methods were used, specifically; (i GIS- based identification of the nearest infectious neighbour based on the Euclidean distance between outbreaks, (ii epidemic doubling time, and (iii a compartmental susceptible-infectious (SI model. For implementation of the SI model, three approaches were used namely; curve fitting (CF, a linear regression model (LRM and the SI/N proportion. The R0 estimates from the nearest infectious neighbour and epidemic doubling time methods were 3.24 and 1.63 respectively. Estimates from the SI-based method were 1.58 for the CF approach, 1.90 for the LRM, and 1.77 for the SI/N proportion. Since all these values were above one, they predict the observed persistence of the virus in the population. We hypothesize that the observed variation in the estimates is a consequence of the data used. Higher resolution and temporally better defined data would likely reduce this variation. This is the first estimate of R0 for ASFV in a free range smallholder pig keeping system in sub-Saharan Africa and highlights the requirement for more efficient application of available disease control measures.

  12. Estimating the Basic Reproductive Number (R0) for African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) Transmission between Pig Herds in Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barongo, Mike B; Ståhl, Karl; Bett, Bernard; Bishop, Richard P; Fèvre, Eric M; Aliro, Tony; Okoth, Edward; Masembe, Charles; Knobel, Darryn; Ssematimba, Amos

    2015-01-01

    African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious, lethal and economically devastating haemorrhagic disease of domestic pigs. Insights into the dynamics and scale of virus transmission can be obtained from estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0). We estimate R0 for ASF virus in small holder, free-range pig production system in Gulu, Uganda. The estimation was based on data collected from outbreaks that affected 43 villages (out of the 289 villages with an overall pig population of 26,570) between April 2010 and November 2011. A total of 211 outbreaks met the criteria for inclusion in the study. Three methods were used, specifically; (i) GIS- based identification of the nearest infectious neighbour based on the Euclidean distance between outbreaks, (ii) epidemic doubling time, and (iii) a compartmental susceptible-infectious (SI) model. For implementation of the SI model, three approaches were used namely; curve fitting (CF), a linear regression model (LRM) and the SI/N proportion. The R0 estimates from the nearest infectious neighbour and epidemic doubling time methods were 3.24 and 1.63 respectively. Estimates from the SI-based method were 1.58 for the CF approach, 1.90 for the LRM, and 1.77 for the SI/N proportion. Since all these values were above one, they predict the observed persistence of the virus in the population. We hypothesize that the observed variation in the estimates is a consequence of the data used. Higher resolution and temporally better defined data would likely reduce this variation. This is the first estimate of R0 for ASFV in a free range smallholder pig keeping system in sub-Saharan Africa and highlights the requirement for more efficient application of available disease control measures.

  13. Transcriptional regulation by the numbers: models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bintu, Lacramioara; Buchler, Nicolas E; Garcia, Hernan G; Gerland, Ulrich; Hwa, Terence; Kondev, Jané; Phillips, Rob

    2005-04-01

    The expression of genes is regularly characterized with respect to how much, how fast, when and where. Such quantitative data demands quantitative models. Thermodynamic models are based on the assumption that the level of gene expression is proportional to the equilibrium probability that RNA polymerase (RNAP) is bound to the promoter of interest. Statistical mechanics provides a framework for computing these probabilities. Within this framework, interactions of activators, repressors, helper molecules and RNAP are described by a single function, the "regulation factor". This analysis culminates in an expression for the probability of RNA polymerase binding at the promoter of interest as a function of the number of regulatory proteins in the cell.

  14. The correlation of reproduction-related gene expression with germ cell number in DM and PLL gilts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yan-Biao; Pan, Zeng-Xiang; Xu, Dan; Xu, Yin-Xue; Liu, Hong-Lin; Huang, Rui-Hua; Hu, Zhi-Gang

    2006-09-01

    In this study, the ovarian germ cell number was counted in 3-week-old Duroc x Meishan (DM, n=30) and PIC x (Landrace x Large White) (PLL, n=53) gilts, and the mRNA expression levels of four reproduction-related genes were investigated by quantitative RT-PCR. Correlation of germ cell number with the expression level of these genes was analyzed. Results showed that the germ cell number of DM was significantly higher than that of PLL gilts (PPLL gilts (P=0.269). No significant correlation existed between germ cell number and ovarian weight in the two gilt groups (R=0.335, P=0.07; R=0.119, P=0.398, respectively). A significant correlation was found between the germ cell number and expression level of ESR and IGF1R mRNA in DM gilts (R=0.648, PPLL gilts (R=0.435, PPLL gilts.

  15. Strategies for transforming reproductive healthcare delivery in an integrated healthcare system: a national model with system-wide implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zephyrin, Laurie C; Katon, Jodie G; Yano, Elizabeth M

    2014-12-01

    As the number of women serving in the US military has grown, so too has the number of women using the US Department of Veterans Affairs Healthcare System (VA). This poses tremendous opportunity to integrate reproductive health services across a national healthcare system. This review summarizes the approaches used to assess, rapidly design, and integrate VA's first National Reproductive Health Program. Compared with the civilian population, women Veterans have poorer health status including increased likelihood of medical comorbidities and mental health conditions. Given these complex health needs, a health systems approach that integrates reproductive health with other needs is essential in this vulnerable population. Delivery of high-quality reproductive healthcare must incorporate a systems perspective. Promoting major organizational and cultural change in a national system has required use of an evidence-based strategic framework, which has relied on several key tenets including the following: understanding the population of women Veterans served, developing research-clinical partnerships, building interdisciplinary initiatives for system-wide integration of reproductive healthcare, and developing innovative tools for enhancing care delivery. This approach can serve as a model for other healthcare systems committed to developing an integrated system of reproductive healthcare and addressing reproductive health conditions in women with complex needs.

  16. The reproduction number R(t) in structured and nonstructured populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burr, Tom; Chowell, Gerardo

    2009-04-01

    Using daily counts of newly infected individuals, Wallinga and Teunis (WT) introduced a conceptually simple method to estimate the number of secondary cases per primary case (R(t)) for a given day. The method requires an estimate of the generation interval probability density function (pdf), which specifies the probabilities for the times between symptom onset in a primary case and symptom onset in a corresponding secondary case. Other methods to estimate R(t) are based on explicit models such as the SIR model; therefore, one might expect the WT method to be more robust to departures from SIR- type behavior. This paper uses simulated data to compare the quality of daily R(t) estimates based on a SIR model to those using the WT method for both structured (classical SIR assumptions are violated) and nonstructured (classical SIR assumptions hold) populations. By using detailed simulations that record the infection day of each new infection and the donor-recipient identities, the true R(t) and the generation interval pdf is known with negligible error. We find that the generation interval pdf is time dependent in all cases, which agrees with recent results reported elsewhere. We also find that the WT method performs essentially the same in the structured populations (except for a spatial network) as it does in the nonstructured population. And, the WT method does as well or better than a SIR-model based method in three of the four structured populations. Therefore, even if the contact patterns are heterogeneous as in the structured populations evaluated here, the WT method provides reasonable estimates of R(t), as does the SIR method.

  17. Crocin Improves Damage Induced by Nicotine on A Number of Reproductive Parameters in Male Mice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salahshoor, Mohammad Reza; Khazaei, Mozafar; Jalili, Cyrus; Keivan, Mona

    2016-01-01

    Background Crocin, a carotenoid isolated from Crocus sativus L. (saffron), is a pharmacologically active component of saffron. Nicotine consumption can decrease fertility in males through induction of oxidative stress and DNA damage. The aim of this study is to determine the effects of crocin on reproductive parameter damages in male mice exposed to nicotine. Materials and Methods In this experimental study, we divided 48 mice into 8 groups (n=6 per group): control (normal saline), nicotine (2.5 mg/kg), crocin (12.5, 25 and 50 mg/kg) and crocin (12.5, 25 and 50 mg/kg)+nicotine (2.5 mg/kg). Mice received once daily intraperitoneal injections of crocin, nicotine and crocin+nicotine for 4 weeks. Sperm parameters (count, motility, and viability), testis weight, seminiferous tube diameters, testosterone, and serum nitric oxide levels were analyzed and compared. Results Nicotine administration significantly decreased testosterone level; sperm count, viability, and motility; testis weight and seminiferous tubule diameters compared to the control group (P<0.05). However, increasing the dose of crocin in the crocin and crocin+nicotine groups significantly boosted sperm motility and viability; seminiferous tubule diameters; testis weight; and testosterone levels in all groups compared to the nicotine group (P<0.05). Conclusion Crocin improves nicotine-induced adverse effects on reproductive parameters in male mice. PMID:27123203

  18. Number of conspecifics and reproduction in the invasive plant Eschscholzia californica (Papaveraceae): is there a pollinator-mediated Allee effect?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anic, V; Henríquez, C A; Abades, S R; Bustamante, R O

    2015-05-01

    The component Allee effect has been defined as 'a positive relationship between any measure of individual fitness and the number or density of conspecifics'. Larger plant populations or large patches have shown a higher pollinator visitation rate, which may give rise to an Allee effect in reproduction of the plants. We experimentally tested the effect of number of conspecifics on reproduction and pollinator visitation in Eschscholzia californica Cham., an invasive plant in Chile. We then built patches with two, eight and 16 flowering individuals of E. californica (11 replicates per treatment) in an area characterised by dominance of the study species. We found that E. californica exhibits a component Allee effect, as the number of individuals of this species has a positive effect on individual seed set. However, individual fruit production was not affected by the number of plants examined. Pollinator visitation rate was also independent of the number of plants, so this factor would not explain the Allee effect. This rate was positively correlated with the total number of flowers in the patches. We also found that the number of plants did not affect the seed mass or proportion of germinated seeds in the patches. Higher pollen availability in patches with 16 plants and pollination by wind could explain the Allee effect. The component Allee effect identified could lead to a weak demographic Allee effect that might reduce the rate of spread of E. californica. Knowledge of this would be useful for management of this invasive plant in Chile. © 2014 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  19. Molecular evolution of candidate male reproductive genes in the brown algal model Ectocarpus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipinska, Agnieszka P; Van Damme, Els J M; De Clerck, Olivier

    2016-01-05

    Evolutionary studies of genes that mediate recognition between sperm and egg contribute to our understanding of reproductive isolation and speciation. Surface receptors involved in fertilization are targets of sexual selection, reinforcement, and other evolutionary forces including positive selection. This observation was made across different lineages of the eukaryotic tree from land plants to mammals, and is particularly evident in free-spawning animals. Here we use the brown algal model species Ectocarpus (Phaeophyceae) to investigate the evolution of candidate gamete recognition proteins in a distant major phylogenetic group of eukaryotes. Male gamete specific genes were identified by comparing transcriptome data covering different stages of the Ectocarpus life cycle and screened for characteristics expected from gamete recognition receptors. Selected genes were sequenced in a representative number of strains from distant geographical locations and varying stages of reproductive isolation, to search for signatures of adaptive evolution. One of the genes (Esi0130_0068) showed evidence of selective pressure. Interestingly, that gene displayed domain similarities to the receptor for egg jelly (REJ) protein involved in sperm-egg recognition in sea urchins. We have identified a male gamete specific gene with similarity to known gamete recognition receptors and signatures of adaptation. Altogether, this gene could contribute to gamete interaction during reproduction as well as reproductive isolation in Ectocarpus and is therefore a good candidate for further functional evaluation.

  20. An individual reproduction model sensitive to milk yield and body condition in Holstein dairy cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brun-Lafleur, L; Cutullic, E; Faverdin, P; Delaby, L; Disenhaus, C

    2013-08-01

    To simulate the consequences of management in dairy herds, the use of individual-based herd models is very useful and has become common. Reproduction is a key driver of milk production and herd dynamics, whose influence has been magnified by the decrease in reproductive performance over the last decades. Moreover, feeding management influences milk yield (MY) and body reserves, which in turn influence reproductive performance. Therefore, our objective was to build an up-to-date animal reproduction model sensitive to both MY and body condition score (BCS). A dynamic and stochastic individual reproduction model was built mainly from data of a single recent long-term experiment. This model covers the whole reproductive process and is composed of a succession of discrete stochastic events, mainly calving, ovulations, conception and embryonic loss. Each reproductive step is sensitive to MY or BCS levels or changes. The model takes into account recent evolutions of reproductive performance, particularly concerning calving-to-first ovulation interval, cyclicity (normal cycle length, prevalence of prolonged luteal phase), oestrus expression and pregnancy (conception, early and late embryonic loss). A sensitivity analysis of the model to MY and BCS at calving was performed. The simulated performance was compared with observed data from the database used to build the model and from the bibliography to validate the model. Despite comprising a whole series of reproductive steps, the model made it possible to simulate realistic global reproduction outputs. It was able to well simulate the overall reproductive performance observed in farms in terms of both success rate (recalving rate) and reproduction delays (calving interval). This model has the purpose to be integrated in herd simulation models to usefully test the impact of management strategies on herd reproductive performance, and thus on calving patterns and culling rates.

  1. THE INVERSE PROBLEM OF A REPRODUCTION MODEL OF NATIONAL INCOME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laipanova Z. M.

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In practice, there were developed and tested some mathematical models of balance relationships (balance model, economic growth, expanding economy, labour market, theories of consumption, production, competitive equilibrium models of the economy in conditions of imperfect competition and others. The basis of these models were based on linear algebra, mathematical analysis, mathematical programming, differential equations, optimization methods, optimal control theory, probability theory, stochastic processes, operations research, game theory, statistical analysis. The inverse problem in various models of mathematical Economics was considered quite rare. These tasks were sufficiently investigated in the study of physical processes. As shown by the analysis of the theoretical and applied studies of economic processes, they represent considerable interest for practice. Therefore, the considered in the study inverse problems of the mathematical model, as it is shown by the already introduced results of other mathematical models, are of considerable interest in applied and theoretical research. In this article, the authors have formulated and investigated an inverse problem for a model of economic growth. For its solution the authors propose to build a system of algebraic equations, using a reproduction model of national income; then, using methods of quadratic programming, to find the best average quadratic estimates of the model parameter

  2. Temporal variations in the effective reproduction number of the 2014 west Africa ebola outbreak

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Towers, Sherry; Patterson-Lomba, Oscar; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

    2014-01-01

    Background The rapidly evolving 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa is the largest documented in history, both in terms of the number of people infected and in the geographic spread...

  3. Estimate of the reproduction number of the 2015 Zika virus outbreak in Barranquilla, Colombia, and estimation of the relative role of sexual transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towers, Sherry; Brauer, Fred; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos; Falconar, Andrew K I; Mubayi, Anuj; Romero-Vivas, Claudia M E

    2016-12-01

    In 2015, the Zika arbovirus (ZIKV) began circulating in the Americas, rapidly expanding its global geographic range in explosive outbreaks. Unusual among mosquito-borne diseases, ZIKV has been shown to also be sexually transmitted, although sustained autochthonous transmission due to sexual transmission alone has not been observed, indicating the reproduction number (R0) for sexual transmission alone is less than 1. Critical to the assessment of outbreak risk, estimation of the potential attack rates, and assessment of control measures, are estimates of the basic reproduction number, R0. We estimated the R0 of the 2015 ZIKV outbreak in Barranquilla, Colombia, through an analysis of the exponential rise in clinically identified ZIKV cases (n=359 to the end of November, 2015). The rate of exponential rise in cases was ρ=0.076days(-1), with 95% CI [0.066,0.087] days(-1). We used a vector-borne disease model with additional direct transmission to estimate the R0; assuming the R0 of sexual transmission alone is less than 1, we estimated the total R0=3.8 [2.4,5.6], and that the fraction of cases due to sexual transmission was 0.23 [0.01,0.47] with 95% confidence. This is among the first estimates of R0 for a ZIKV outbreak in the Americas, and also among the first quantifications of the relative impact of sexual transmission. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Modeling the Concept of Number: What are the Alternatives?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, Norma G.

    1985-01-01

    The use of a variety of models to develop number concepts is advocated. Four models are discussed, with illustrations: the cardinal number of a set, Cuisenaire rods, the number line, and the Papy Minicomputer. (MNS)

  5. Incidence and reproduction numbers of pertussis: estimates from serological and social contact data in five European countries.

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    Mirjam Kretzschmar

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Despite large-scale vaccination programmes, pertussis has remained endemic in all European countries and has been on the rise in many countries in the last decade. One of the reasons that have been discussed for the failure of vaccination to eliminate the disease is continued circulation of the pathogen Bordetella pertussis by mostly asymptomatic and mild infections in adolescents and adults. To understand the impact of asymptomatic and undiagnosed infection on the transmission dynamics of pertussis we analysed serological data from five European countries in combination with information about social contact patterns from five of those countries to estimate incidence and reproduction numbers. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compared two different methods for estimating incidence from individual data on IgG pertussis toxin (PT titres. One method combines the cross-sectional surveys of titres with longitudinal information about the distribution of amplitude and decay rate of titres in a back-calculation approach. The second method uses age-dependent contact matrices and cross-sectional surveys of IgG PT titres to estimate a next generation matrix for pertussis transmission among age groups. The next generation approach allows for computation of basic reproduction numbers for five European countries. Our main findings are that the seroincidence of infections as estimated with the first method in all countries lies between 1% and 6% per annum with a peak in the adolescent age groups and a second lower peak in young adults. The incidence of infections as estimated by the second method lies slightly lower with ranges between 1% and 4% per annum. There is a remarkably good agreement of the results obtained with the two methods. The basic reproduction numbers are similar across countries at around 5.5. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination with currently used vaccines cannot prevent continued circulation and reinfection with pertussis, but has shifted the bulk

  6. Evaluation of possible toxic effects of spearmint (Mentha spicata) on the reproductive system, fertility and number of offspring in adult male rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nozhat, Fatemeh; Alaee, Sanaz; Behzadi, Khodabakhsh; Azadi Chegini, Najmeh

    2014-11-01

    In this study we investigated the effects of spearmint (Mentha spicata Labiatae) on the reproductive system, fertility and number of offspring in adult male rats. Adult Wistar male rats in one control (C) and three experimental groups (I, II and III) received 0, 10, 20 and 40 mg/kg spearmint extract orally for 45 days, respectively. Following this treatment, the animals' weights, and the standard weight of reproductive tissues, sperm count, sperm motility and serum testosterone concentration were measured, and reproductive tissues were examined histopathologically. To evaluate the effects of spearmint on fertility of male rats and growth of their offspring, male rats of the control and experimental groups mated with untreated female rats. RESULTS showed that spearmint did not affect the rats' body and reproductive tissue weights. The sperm count, fast and slow progressive motility of sperm and serum testosterone concentration decreased while number of non-progressive sperm and immotile sperm increased in the experimental groups compared to the control group, but none of these changes were statistically significant. Histopathological studies showed no severe changes in reproductive tissues between control and experimental groups. Number and growth of offspring born from mating of male rats with untreated female rats showed no difference. We concluded that spearmint has no significant toxic effect on the reproductive system, fertility and number of offspring in adult male rats at the above mentioned dose levels. However high levels of this extract may have adverse effects on male fertility.

  7. Macro-level modeling of the response of C. elegans reproduction to chronic heat stress.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick D McMullen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A major goal of systems biology is to understand how organism-level behavior arises from a myriad of molecular interactions. Often this involves complex sets of rules describing interactions among a large number of components. As an alternative, we have developed a simple, macro-level model to describe how chronic temperature stress affects reproduction in C. elegans. Our approach uses fundamental engineering principles, together with a limited set of experimentally derived facts, and provides quantitatively accurate predictions of performance under a range of physiologically relevant conditions. We generated detailed time-resolved experimental data to evaluate the ability of our model to describe the dynamics of C. elegans reproduction. We find considerable heterogeneity in responses of individual animals to heat stress, which can be understood as modulation of a few processes and may represent a strategy for coping with the ever-changing environment. Our experimental results and model provide quantitative insight into the breakdown of a robust biological system under stress and suggest, surprisingly, that the behavior of complex biological systems may be determined by a small number of key components.

  8. Estimating the reproductive numbers for the 2008–2009 cholera outbreaks in Zimbabwe

    OpenAIRE

    Mukandavire, Zindoga; Liao, Shu; Wang, Jin; Gaff, Holly; Smith, David L; Morris, J. Glenn

    2011-01-01

    Cholera remains an important global cause of morbidity and mortality, capable of causing periodic epidemic disease. Beginning in August 2008, a major cholera epidemic occurred in Zimbabwe, with 98,585 reported cases and 4,287 deaths. The dynamics of such outbreaks, particularly in nonestuarine regions, are not well understood. We explored the utility of mathematical models in understanding transmission dynamics of cholera and in assessing the magnitude of interventions necessary to control ep...

  9. Modelling the effects of environmental and individual variability when measuring the costs of first reproduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbraud, C.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available How do animals balance their investment in young against their own chances to survive and reproduce in the future? This life–history trade–off, referred to as the cost of reproduction (Williams, 1966, holds a central place in life–history theory (Roff, 1992; Stearns, 1992; McNamara & Houston, 1996. Because individuals can only acquire a limited amount of energy, reproduction and survival as well as current and future reproduction are considered as functions competing for the same resources. In this framework, individuals may optimise life–history decisions. If the reproductive effort in one year leads to a loss in future reproductive output through decreased adult survival or reduced fecundity, then the optimal effort in the current season is less than the effort that would maximize the number of offspring produced in that season (Charnov & Krebs, 1974. There are at least two kinds of factors likely to confound the measurement of the costs of reproduction in the wild. First, there could be differences in the amount of energy individuals acquire and allocate to various functions. This phenotypic heterogeneity can mask or exacerbate individual allocation patterns when trends are averaged across a population (Vaupel & Yashin, 1985; McDonald et al., 1996; Cam & Monnat, 2000. Second, there could be variations in resource availability affecting energy acquisition and allocation. Theoretical models examining the optimal phenotypic balance between reproduction and survival under variable breeding conditions have investigated the influence of environmental stochasticity on the cost of reproduction in birds (Erikstad et al., 1998; Orzack & Tuljapurkar, 2001. However, there is little empirical evidence supporting these theoretical models. Here, we present analysis of the influence of experience, but also of the differential effects of environmental and individual variation on survival and future breeding probability. We address the question of the

  10. Reproductive and metabolic phenotype of a mouse model of PCOS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E. Leonie (E.); A.F. van Houten (A.); P. Kramer (Piet); A. McLuskey; B. Karels (Bas); A.P.N. Themmen (Axel); J.A. Visser (Jenny)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractPolycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), the most common endocrine disorder in women in their reproductive age, is characterized by both reproductive and metabolic features. Recent studies in human, nonhuman primates, and sheep suggest that hyperandrogenism plays an important role in the

  11. Structure-based modelling in reproductive toxicology: (Q)SARs for the placental barrier.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitt, M; Madden, J C; Rowe, P H; Cronin, M T D

    2007-01-01

    The replacement of animal testing for endpoints such as reproductive toxicity is a long-term goal. This study describes the possibilities of using simple (quantitative) structure-activity relationships ((Q)SARs) to predict whether a molecule may cross the placental membrane. The concept is straightforward, if a molecule is not able to cross the placental barrier, then it will not be a reproductive toxicant. Such a model could be placed at the start of any integrated testing strategy. To develop these models the literature was reviewed to obtain data relating to the transfer of molecules across the placenta. A reasonable number of data were obtained and are suitable for the modelling of the ability of a molecule to cross the placenta. Clearance or transfer indices data were sought due to their ability to eliminate inter-placental variation by standardising drug clearance to the reference compound antipyrine. Modelling of the permeability data indicates that (Q)SARs with reasonable statistical fit can be developed for the ability of molecules to cross the placental barrier membrane. Analysis of the models indicates that molecular size, hydrophobicity and hydrogen-bonding ability are molecular properties that may govern the ability of a molecule to cross the placental barrier.

  12. Complexities and contingencies conceptualised: towards a model of reproductive navigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Sijpt, Erica

    2014-02-01

    Current international attention to reproductive health behaviour is inspired by a western celebration of individual rights, autonomous action and rational choice. A predominant idea is that individuals should be free to act in accordance with their reproductive intentions and that, in doing so, they will attain their desired (and quantifiable) fertility outcomes. Yet such a framework leads to a misrepresentation of the reproductive dynamics on the ground, because individual fertility intentions are often not a priori defined, decisions are often not the result of rational calculation and reproductive happenings do not exist in a social vacuum. This article provides sociocultural evidence for a different conceptualisation of reproductive health behaviour. On the basis of long-term anthropological fieldwork in the East Province of Cameroon, I will analyse the complexities of fertility-related decision-making. Two case studies from the field will show that reproductive happenings are often characterised by indeterminacy and contingency. In order to understand the complex ways in which women give direction to these uncertainties, I propose an encompassing framework of reproductive navigation that explicitly acknowledges the influence of sociality and corporeality on fertility aspirations and actions.

  13. Dynamic probabilistic modelling of reproduction and replacement management in sow herds. General aspects and model description.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jalvingh, A.W.; Dijkhuizen, A.A.; Arendonk, van J.A.M.

    1992-01-01

    A dynamic probabilistic model has been designed for the personal computer to determine the technical and economic consequences of various biological variables and management strategies concerning reproduction and replacement in swine. In it, the Markov chain approach is used to simulate herd

  14. Estimation of additive and dominance variance for reproductive traits from different models in Duroc purebred

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Talerngsak Angkuraseranee

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available The additive and dominance genetic variances of 5,801 Duroc reproductive and growth records were estimated usingBULPF90 PC-PACK. Estimates were obtained for number born alive (NBA, birth weight (BW, number weaned (NW, andweaning weight (WW. Data were analyzed using two mixed model equations. The first model included fixed effects andrandom effects identifying inbreeding depression, additive gene effect and permanent environments effects. The secondmodel was similar to the first model, but included the dominance genotypic effect. Heritability estimates of NBA, BW, NWand WW from the two models were 0.1558/0.1716, 0.1616/0.1737, 0.0372/0.0874 and 0.1584/0.1516 respectively. Proportionsof dominance effect to total phenotypic variance from the dominance model were 0.1024, 0.1625, 0.0470, and 0.1536 for NBA,BW, NW and WW respectively. Dominance effects were found to have sizable influence on the litter size traits analyzed.Therefore, genetic evaluation with the dominance model (Model 2 is found more appropriate than the animal model (Model 1.

  15. Interpreting the von Bertalanffy model of somatic growth in fishes: the cost of reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lester, N P; Shuter, B J; Abrams, P A

    2004-08-07

    We develop a model for somatic growth in fishes that explicitly allows for the energy demand imposed by reproduction. We show that the von Bertalanffy (VB) equation provides a good description of somatic growth after maturity, but not before. We show that the parameters of the VB equation are simple functions of age at maturity and reproductive investment. We use this model to show how the energy demands for both growth and reproduction trade off to determine optimal life-history traits. Assuming that both age at maturity and reproductive investment adapt to variations in adult mortality to maximize lifetime offspring production, our model predicts that: (i) the optimal age of maturity is inversely related to adult mortality rate; (ii) the optimal reproductive effort is approximately equal to adult mortality rate. These predictions are consistent with observed variations in the life-history traits of a large sample of iteroparous freshwater fishes. Copyright 2004 The Royal Society

  16. Reproductive rights approach to reproductive health in developing countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vijayan K. Pillai

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Research on reproductive health in developing countries focuses mostly on the role of economic development on various components of reproductive health. Cross-sectional and empirical research studies in particular on the effects of non-economic factors such as reproductive rights remain few and far between.This study investigates the influence of two components of an empowerment strategy, gender equality, and reproductive rights on women's reproductive health in developing countries. The empowerment strategy for improving reproductive health is theoretically situated on a number of background factors such as economic and social development.Cross-national socioeconomic and demographic data from a number of international organizations on 142 developing countries are used to test a model of reproductive rights and reproductive health.The findings suggest that both economic and democratic development have significant positive effects on levels of gender equality. The level of social development plays a prominent role in promoting reproductive rights. It is found that reproductive rights channel the influences of social structural factors and gender equality on reproductive health.

  17. For prediction of elder survival by a Gompertz model, number dead is preferable to number alive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easton, Dexter M; Hirsch, Henry R

    2008-12-01

    The standard Gompertz equation for human survival fits very poorly the survival data of the very old (age 85 and above), who appear to survive better than predicted. An alternative Gompertz model based on the number of individuals who have died, rather than the number that are alive, at each age, tracks the data more accurately. The alternative model is based on the same differential equation as in the usual Gompertz model. The standard model describes the accelerated exponential decay of the number alive, whereas the alternative, heretofore unutilized model describes the decelerated exponential growth of the number dead. The alternative model is complementary to the standard and, together, the two Gompertz formulations allow accurate prediction of survival of the older as well as the younger mature members of the population.

  18. A visit to CHC of a larger number of women. JICA Reproductive Health Project. Yen Than district.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trinh Xuan Hong

    1999-01-01

    The situation of the Bac Than Commune Health Center (CHC) in Yen Than District, Vietnam is reported. Promotion of education, improvement in health care, and economic development are the strategic programs for improving the commune people's standard of living. For the promotion of education, the CHC upgraded educational facilities and trained teachers on the use of efficient teaching methods. In order to generate a bigger income, efforts are exerted to promote the development of agriculture by producing agricultural products that are popular and sell high in the market. These activities have yielded positive results. Many students are doing well in their classes and are attending universities and the per capita yield of products has increased. For the improvement in health care, the Japan International Cooperation Agency Reproductive Health project has contributed much to the CHC. The three activities observed were 1) implementation of information, education and communication activities; 2) training of health staff members; and 3) renovation of the health facility. Such improvements have led to a visit to CHC of a larger number of women for gynecological examinations and prenatal check-ups and safe delivery.

  19. Optimizing reproductive phenology in a two-resource world: a dynamic allocation model of plant growth predicts later reproduction in phosphorus-limited plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nord, Eric A.; Shea, Katriona; Lynch, Jonathan P.

    2011-01-01

    Background and Aims Timing of reproduction is a key life-history trait that is regulated by resource availability. Delayed reproduction in soils with low phosphorus availability is common among annuals, in contrast to the accelerated reproduction typical of other low-nutrient environments. It is hypothesized that this anomalous response arises from the high marginal value of additional allocation to root growth caused by the low mobility of phosphorus in soils. Methods To better understand the benefits and costs of such delayed reproduction, a two-resource dynamic allocation model of plant growth and reproduction is presented. The model incorporates growth, respiration, and carbon and phosphorus acquisition of both root and shoot tissue, and considers the reallocation of resources from senescent leaves. The model is parameterized with data from Arabidopsis and the optimal reproductive phenology is explored in a range of environments. Key Results The model predicts delayed reproduction in low-phosphorus environments. Reproductive timing in low-phosphorus environments is quite sensitive to phosphorus mobility, but is less sensitive to the temporal distribution of mortality risks. In low-phosphorus environments, the relative metabolic cost of roots was greater, and reproductive allocation reduced, compared with high-phosphorus conditions. The model suggests that delayed reproduction in response to low phosphorus availability may be reduced in plants adapted to environments where phosphorus mobility is greater. Conclusions Delayed reproduction in low-phosphorus soils can be a beneficial response allowing for increased acquisition and utilization of phosphorus. This finding has implications both for efforts to breed crops for low-phosphorus soils, and for efforts to understand how climate change may impact plant growth and productivity in low-phosphorus environments. PMID:21712299

  20. QSAR models for reproductive toxicity and endocrine disruption in regulatory use - a preliminary investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Gunde Egeskov; Niemela, J.R.; Wedebye, Eva Bay

    2008-01-01

    the new legislation. This article focuses on a screening exercise by use of our own and commercial QSAR models for identification of possible reproductive toxicants. Three QSAR models were used for reproductive toxicity for the endpoints teratogenic risk to humans (based on animal tests, clinical data...... for humans owing to possible developmental toxic effects: Xn (Harmful) and R63 (Possible risk of harm to the unborn child). The chemicals were also screened in three models for endocrine disruption....

  1. Evaluation of possible toxic effects of spearmint (Mentha spicata on the reproductive system, fertility and number of offspring in adult male rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Nozhat

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective: In this study we investigated the effects of spearmint (Mentha spicata Labiatae on the reproductive system, fertility and number of offspring in adult male rats. Materials and Methods: Adult Wistar male rats in one control (C and three experimental groups (I, II and III received 0, 10, 20 and 40 mg/kg spearmint extract orally for 45 days, respectively.  Following this treatment, the animals’ weights, and the standard weight of reproductive tissues, sperm count, sperm motility and serum testosterone concentration were measured, and reproductive tissues were examined histopathologically. To evaluate the effects of spearmint on fertility of male rats and growth of their offspring, male rats of the control and experimental groups mated with untreated female rats. Results: Results showed that spearmint did not affect the rats’ body and reproductive tissue weights. The sperm count, fast and slow progressive motility of sperm and serum testosterone concentration decreased while number of non-progressive sperm and immotile sperm increased in the experimental groups compared to the control group, but none of these changes were statistically significant. Histopathological studies showed no severe changes in reproductive tissues between control and experimental groups. Number and growth of offspring born from mating of male rats with untreated female rats showed no difference. Conclusion: We concluded that spearmint has no significant toxic effect on the reproductive system, fertility and number of offspring in adult male rats at the above  mentioned dose levels. However high levels of this extract may have adverse effects on male fertility.

  2. Sons conceived by assisted reproduction techniques inherit deletions in the azoospermia factor (AZF) region of the Y chromosome and the DAZ gene copy number

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mau Kai, C; Juul, A; McElreavey, K

    2008-01-01

    number, supplemented with haplogroup typing in deleted patients, were performed, in combination with clinical assessments in 264 fathers and their sons conceived by assisted reproduction techniques (ART), and in 168 fertile men with normal sperm concentration. RESULTS: In the ART fathers group...

  3. Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A (H1N1 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chowell Gerardo

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In many parts of the world, the exponential growth rate of infections during the initial epidemic phase has been used to make statistical inferences on the reproduction number, R, a summary measure of the transmission potential for the novel influenza A (H1N1 2009. The growth rate at the initial stage of the epidemic in Japan led to estimates for R in the range 2.0 to 2.6, capturing the intensity of the initial outbreak among school-age children in May 2009. Methods An updated estimate of R that takes into account the epidemic data from 29 May to 14 July is provided. An age-structured renewal process is employed to capture the age-dependent transmission dynamics, jointly estimating the reproduction number, the age-dependent susceptibility and the relative contribution of imported cases to secondary transmission. Pitfalls in estimating epidemic growth rates are identified and used for scrutinizing and re-assessing the results of our earlier estimate of R. Results Maximum likelihood estimates of R using the data from 29 May to 14 July ranged from 1.21 to 1.35. The next-generation matrix, based on our age-structured model, predicts that only 17.5% of the population will experience infection by the end of the first pandemic wave. Our earlier estimate of R did not fully capture the population-wide epidemic in quantifying the next-generation matrix from the estimated growth rate during the initial stage of the pandemic in Japan. Conclusions In order to quantify R from the growth rate of cases, it is essential that the selected model captures the underlying transmission dynamics embedded in the data. Exploring additional epidemiological information will be useful for assessing the temporal dynamics. Although the simple concept of R is more easily grasped by the general public than that of the next-generation matrix, the matrix incorporating detailed information (e.g., age-specificity is essential for reducing the levels of

  4. Simulating the Reproductive Behavior of a Region’s Population with an Agent-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeriy Leonidovich Makarov

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The research analyses the impact of the inequality of demographic transition on socio-demographic characteristics of the regional population and on the dynamics of these characteristics. The study was conducted with the help of computer-based experiments (simulations, which was run on the original agent-based model. The model is an artificial society, and personal characteristics of its members are set so that they could represent age-demographic structure of a simulate region. The agents are divided into two subgroups, which differ in their reproductive strategy. The first group has traditional strategy with high birth rate. The second group has considerably lower birth rate, observed in the modern developed societies. The model uses stochastic approaches to imitate the principle processes of population growth: mortality and morbidity. Mortality is set according to age-sex specific mortality coefficients, which do not differ across the population as a whole. New agents (child births appear as a choice of agents – women of reproductive age, and the choice depends on the subgroup. The overall age and social structure of the region is aggregated across individual agents. A number of experiments has been carried out with the model utilization. This allowed forecasting the size and structure of the population of a given region. The results of the experiments have revealed that despite its simplicity, the developed agent-based model well predicts the initial conditions in the region (e.g. age-demographic and social structure. The model shows good fit in terms of estimating the dynamics of major characteristics of the population.

  5. Color reproduction system based on color appearance model and gamut mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Fang-Hsuan; Yang, Chih-Yuan

    2000-06-01

    By the progress of computer, computer peripherals such as color monitor and printer are often used to generate color image. However, cross media color reproduction by human perception is usually different. Basically, the influence factors are device calibration and characterization, viewing condition, device gamut and human psychology. In this thesis, a color reproduction system based on color appearance model and gamut mapping is proposed. It consists of four parts; device characterization, color management technique, color appearance model and gamut mapping.

  6. High lifetime and reproductive performance of sows on southern European Union commercial farms can be predicted by high numbers of pigs born alive in parity one.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iida, R; Piñeiro, C; Koketsu, Y

    2015-05-01

    Our objectives were 1) to compare reproductive performance across parity and lifetime performance in sow groups categorized by the number of pigs born alive (PBA) in parity 1 and 2) to examine the factors associated with more PBA in parity 1. We analyzed 476,816 parity records and 109,373 lifetime records of sows entered into 125 herds from 2008 to 2010. Sows were categorized into 4 groups based on the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles of PBA in parity 1 as follows: 7 pigs or fewer, 8 to 11 pigs, 12 to 14 pigs, and 15 pigs or more. Generalized linear models were applied to the data. For reproductive performance across parity, sows that had 15 or more PBA in parity 1 had 0.5 to 1.8 more PBA in any subsequent parity than the other 3 PBA groups ( Psows that had 7 or fewer PBA (P sow PBA groups for weaning-to-first-mating interval in any parity (P ≥ 0.37). For lifetime performance, sows that had 15 or more PBA in parity 1 had 4.4 to 26.1 more lifetime PBA than sows that had 14 or fewer PBA (P sows that had 14 or fewer PBA in parity 1, those that were first mated at 229 d old (25th percentile) or earlier had 2.9 to 3.3 more lifetime PBA than those first mated at 278 d old (75th percentile) or later (P sows mated from July to December increased nonlinearly by 0.3 to 0.4 pigs when AFM increased from 200 to 310 d old (P sows mated between January and June (P ≥ 0.17). In conclusion, high PBA in parity 1 can be used to predict that a sow will have high reproductive performance and lifetime performance. Also, the data indicate that the upper limit of AFM for mating between July and December should be 278 d old.

  7. Farm-level reproduction number during an epidemic of infectious salmon anemia virus in southern Chile in 2007-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mardones, F O; Perez, A M; Valdes-Donoso, P; Carpenter, T E

    2011-12-01

    An epidemic of infectious salmon anemia virus (ISAV) has greatly impacted salmon production in Chile with devastating social and economic consequences. The epidemic is analyzed here and is likely the largest ISAV outbreak reported affecting one of the most productive regions for salmon farming activities in the world. After re-emerging in 2007, ISAV rapidly expanded the following two years, both in magnitude and geographic range, affecting about 65% and 50% of salmon farms located at the 10th and 11th regions of Chile, respectively. A useful metric for the control of infectious diseases that quantifies the progression of an epidemic is the reproduction number at the farm level (R(f)), which describes the mean number of secondary cases generated by an infectious farm. The parameter in this study was estimated for individual farms (R(fi)), specific phases (R(tf)), and for the entire epidemic (R(f)) by using several analytical approaches based on the characterization of the epidemic curves for the two regions. For the initial spread and the epidemic growth phase, initial and intrinsic growth rates were used to estimate R(tf). In addition, two approaches (epidemic final size and nearest neighbor analyses) were used to obtain an individual (R(fi)) and overall estimate of R(f) for the complete epidemic. In general, two distinct regional patterns of spread were identified. In the 10th region, after an explosive initial spread of ISAV in which R(tf) reached 12.0-16.9, a smaller epidemic growth of 1.6≤R(tf)≥2.5 and a final burnout with R(tf)farms i.e., farms with statistically significantly (Pfarms were statistically significantly (P=0.003) shorter in the 10th compared to the 11th region. Overall, R(f) ranged from 1.6 to 2.5 and 1.3 to 1.7 in the 10th and 11th regions, respectively. Our findings suggest that control efforts were able to protect 38-60% and 23-41% of the farms in the 10th and 11th regions, respectively, and may have resulted in the epidemic not spreading

  8. Numerical simulation of LBGK model for high Reynolds number flow

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhou Xiao-Yang; Shi Bao-Chang; Wang Neng-Chao

    2004-01-01

    A principle of selecting relaxation parameter was proposed to observe the limit computational capability of the incompressible LBGK models developed by Guo ZL (Guo model) and He SY (He model) for high Reynolds number flow.To the two-dimensional driven cavity flow problem, the highest Reynolds numbers covered by Guo and He models are in the range 58000-52900 and 28000-29000, respectively, at 0.3 Mach number and 1/256 lattice space. The simulation results also show that the Guo model has stronger robustness due to its higher accuracy.

  9. Bronx Teens Connection's Clinic Linkage Model: Connecting Youth to Quality Sexual and Reproductive Health Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Uhuru, Deborah J; Santiago, Vivian; Murray, Lauren E; Travers, Madeline; Bedell, Jane F

    2017-03-01

    Teen pregnancy and birth rates in the Bronx have been higher than in New York City, representing a longstanding health disparity. The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene implemented a community-wide, multicomponent intervention to reduce unintended teen pregnancy, the Bronx Teens Connection. The Bronx Teens Connection Clinic Linkage Model sought to increase teens' access to and use of sexual and reproductive health care by increasing community partner capacity to link neighborhood clinics to youth-serving organizations, including schools. The Bronx Teens Connection Clinic Linkage Model used needs assessments, delineated the criteria for linkages, clarified roles and responsibilities of partners and staff, established trainings to support the staff engaged in linkage activities, and developed and used process evaluation methods. Early results demonstrated the strength and feasibility of the model over a 4-year period, with 31 linkages developed and maintained, over 11,300 contacts between clinic health educators and teens completed, and increasing adherence to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-defined clinical best practices for adolescent reproductive health. For those eight clinics that were able to provide data, there was a 25% increase in the number of teen clients seen over 4 years. There are many factors that relate to an increase in clinic utilization; some of this increase may have been a result of the linkages between schools and clinics. The Bronx Teens Connection Clinic Linkage Model is an explicit framework for clinical and youth-serving organizations seeking to establish formal linkage relationships that may be useful for other municipalities or organizations. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Prediction of cloud droplet number in a general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghan, S.J.; Leung, L.R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    We have applied the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) bulk cloud microphysics parameterization to the treatment of stratiform clouds in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2). The RAMS predicts mass concentrations of cloud water, cloud ice, rain and snow, and number concnetration of ice. We have introduced the droplet number conservation equation to predict droplet number and it`s dependence on aerosols.

  11. Dual Numbers Approach in Multiaxis Machines Error Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaroslav Hrdina

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Multiaxis machines error modeling is set in the context of modern differential geometry and linear algebra. We apply special classes of matrices over dual numbers and propose a generalization of such concept by means of general Weil algebras. We show that the classification of the geometric errors follows directly from the algebraic properties of the matrices over dual numbers and thus the calculus over the dual numbers is the proper tool for the methodology of multiaxis machines error modeling.

  12. Photon Number Conserving Models of H II Bubbles during Reionization

    CERN Document Server

    Paranjape, Aseem; Padmanabhan, Hamsa

    2015-01-01

    Traditional excursion set based models of H II bubble growth during the epoch of reionization are known to violate photon number conservation, in the sense that the mass fraction in ionized bubbles in these models does not equal the ratio of the number of ionizing photons produced by sources and the number of hydrogen atoms in the intergalactic medium. We demonstrate that this problem arises from a fundamental conceptual shortcoming of the excursion set approach (already recognised in the literature on this formalism) which only tracks average mass fractions instead of the exact, stochastic source counts. With this insight, we build an approximately photon number conserving Monte Carlo model of bubble growth based on partitioning regions of dark matter into halos. Our model, which is formally valid for white noise initial conditions (ICs), shows dramatic improvements in photon number conservation, as well as substantial differences in the bubble size distribution, as compared to traditional models. We explore...

  13. Apomixis in Achnanthes (Bacillariophyceae); development of a model system for diatom reproductive biology

    OpenAIRE

    Sabbe, K; Chepurnov, V.A.; Vyverman, W.; Mann, D. G.

    2004-01-01

    The availability of extensive experimental data and remarkable intra- and interspecific variation in breeding behaviour make Achnanthes Bory sensu stricto an especially good model for studying the reproductive and population biology of pennate diatoms. In most Achnanthes species studied, auxospore formation is accompanied by biparental sexual reproduction, but we found uniparental auxosporulation in Achnanthes cf. subsessilis. Auxosporulation appears to be apomictic and follows contraction of...

  14. Evolutionary demography of iteroparous plants: incorporating non-lethal costs of reproduction into integral projection models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Tom E X; Williams, Jennifer L; Jongejans, Eelke; Brys, Rein; Jacquemyn, Hans

    2012-07-22

    Understanding the selective forces that shape reproductive strategies is a central goal of evolutionary ecology. Selection on the timing of reproduction is well studied in semelparous organisms because the cost of reproduction (death) can be easily incorporated into demographic models. Iteroparous organisms also exhibit delayed reproduction and experience reproductive costs, although these are not necessarily lethal. How non-lethal costs shape iteroparous life histories remains unresolved. We analysed long-term demographic data for the iteroparous orchid Orchis purpurea from two habitat types (light and shade). In both the habitats, flowering plants had lower growth rates and this cost was greater for smaller plants. We detected an additional growth cost of fruit production in the light habitat. We incorporated these non-lethal costs into integral projection models to identify the flowering size that maximizes fitness. In both habitats, observed flowering sizes were well predicted by the models. We also estimated optimal parameters for size-dependent flowering effort, but found a strong mismatch with the observed flower production. Our study highlights the role of context-dependent non-lethal reproductive costs as selective forces in the evolution of iteroparous life histories, and provides a novel and broadly applicable approach to studying the evolutionary demography of iteroparous organisms.

  15. Early estimation of the reproduction number in the presence of imported cases: pandemic influenza H1N1-2009 in New Zealand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael George Roberts

    Full Text Available We analyse data from the early epidemic of H1N1-2009 in New Zealand, and estimate the reproduction number R. We employ a renewal process which accounts for imported cases, illustrate some technical pitfalls, and propose a novel estimation method to address these pitfalls. Explicitly accounting for the infection-age distribution of imported cases and for the delay in transmission dynamics due to international travel, R was estimated to be (95% confidence interval: 107,1.47. Hence we show that a previous study, which did not account for these factors, overestimated R. Our approach also permitted us to examine the infection-age at which secondary transmission occurs as a function of calendar time, demonstrating the downward bias during the beginning of the epidemic. These technical issues may compromise the usefulness of a well-known estimator of R--the inverse of the moment-generating function of the generation time given the intrinsic growth rate. Explicit modelling of the infection-age distribution among imported cases and the examination of the time dependency of the generation time play key roles in avoiding a biased estimate of R, especially when one only has data covering a short time interval during the early growth phase of the epidemic.

  16. The Basic Reproduction Number ℛ0 and Effectiveness of Reactive Interventions during Dengue Epidemics: The 2002 Dengue Outbreak in Easter Island, Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, G.; Fuentes, R.; Olea, A.; Aguilera, X.; Nesse, H.; Hyman, J. M.

    2015-01-01

    We use a stochastic simulation model to explore the effect of reactive intervention strategies during the 2002 dengue outbreak in the small population of Easter Island, Chile. We quantified the effect of interventions on the transmission dynamics and epidemic size as a function of the simulated control intensity levels and the timing of initiation of control interventions. Because no dengue outbreaks had been reported prior to 2002 in Easter Island, the 2002 epidemic provided a unique opportunity to estimate the basic reproduction number ℛ0 during the initial epidemic phase, prior to the start of control interventions. We estimated ℛ0 at 27.2 (95%CI: 14.8, 49.3). We found that the final epidemic size is highly sensitive to the timing of start of interventions. However, even when the control interventions start several weeks after the epidemic onset, reactive intervention efforts can have a significant impact on the final epidemic size. Our results indicate that the rapid implementation of control interventions can have a significant effect in reducing the epidemic size of dengue epidemics. PMID:24245625

  17. The basic reproduction number R0 and effectiveness of reactive interventions during dengue epidemics: the 2002 dengue outbreak in Easter Island, Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Fuentes, R; Olea, A; Aguilera, X; Nesse, H; Hyman, J M

    2013-01-01

    We use a stochastic simulation model to explore the effect of reactive intervention strategies during the 2002 dengue outbreak in the small population of Easter Island, Chile. We quantified the effect of interventions on the transmission dynamics and epidemic size as a function of the simulated control intensity levels and the timing of initiation of control interventions. Because no dengue outbreaks had been reported prior to 2002 in Easter Island, the 2002 epidemic provided a unique opportunity to estimate the basic reproduction number R0 during the initial epidemic phase, prior to the start of control interventions. We estimated R0 at 27.2 (95%CI: 14.8, 49.3). We found that the final epidemic size is highly sensitive to the timing of start of interventions. However, even when the control interventions start several weeks after the epidemic onset, reactive intervention efforts can have a significant impact on the final epidemic size. Our results indicate that the rapid implementation of control interventions can have a significant effect in reducing the epidemic size of dengue epidemics.

  18. Nervous control of reproduction in Octopus vulgaris: a new model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Cristo, Carlo

    2013-06-01

    The classic study of Wells and Wells on the control of reproduction in Octopus demonstrated that the activity of the subpedunculate lobe of the brain and environmental illumination both inhibit the release of an unknown gonadotropin from the optic gland. This inhibitory control may be exerted by the neuropeptide Phe-Met-Arg-Phe-NH₂ (FMRFamide). It was later demonstrated that the olfactory lobe is also likely to be involved in the control of optic gland activity. The presence of gonadotropin-releasing hormone in the olfactory lobe suggested that it might exert an excitatory action on optic gland activity. Other neuropeptides have now been localised in the olfactory lobe: neuropeptide Y, galanin, corticotropin-releasing factor, Ala-Pro-Gly-Trp-NH₂ (APGWamide), as well as steroidogenic enzymes and an oestrogen receptor orthologue. This supports the hypothesis that this lobe may also play a part in the control of reproduction in Octopus. The olfactory lobe receives distant chemical stimuli and also appears to be an integrative centre containing a variety of neuropeptides involved in controlling the onset of sexual maturation of Octopus, via the optic gland hormone. This review attempts to summarise current knowledge about the role of the olfactory lobe and optic gland in the control of sexual maturation in Octopus, in the light of new findings and in the context of molluscan comparative physiology.

  19. Theoretical models in low-Reynolds-number locomotion

    CERN Document Server

    Pak, On Shun

    2014-01-01

    The locomotion of microorganisms in fluids is ubiquitous and plays an important role in numerous biological processes. In this chapter we present an overview of theoretical modeling for low-Reynolds-number locomotion.

  20. The Influence of Investor Number on a Microscopic Market Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellthaler, T.

    The stock market model of Levy, Persky, Solomon is simulated for much larger numbers of investors. While small markets can lead to realistically looking prices, the resulting prices of large markets oscillate smoothly in a semi-regular fashion.

  1. Modelling the dispersion of particle numbers in five European cities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kukkonen, J.; Karl, M.; Keuken, M.P.; Denier van der Gon, H.A.C.; Denby, B.R.; Singh, V.; Douros, J.; Manders, A.M.M.; Samaras, Z.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Jonkers, S.; Aarnio, M.; Karppinen, A.; Kangas, L.; Lutzenkirchen, S.; Petaja, T.; Vouitsis, I.; Sokhi, R.S.

    2016-01-01

    We present an overview of the modelling of particle number concentrations (PNCs) in five major European cities, namely Helsinki, Oslo, London, Rotterdam and Athens in 2008. Novel emission inventories of particle numbers have been compiled both on urban and European scales. We used atmospheric disper

  2. Reproduction of an animal model of landmine blast injuries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sen ZHANG

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective To reproduce an animal model of landmine blast injuries for studying its mechanism and characteristics. Methods Fifteen healthy New Zealand white rabbits (body weight 1.9-2.4 kg were prepared as experimental animals. Punctiform burster was used to simulate the landmine, and it was electrically detonated far away to produce landmine blast injuries on unilateral hind limb of rabbits in upright state. The vital signs before and 5min, 15min, 30min, 45min, 1h, 2h, 3h, 6h, 9h and 12h after injuries were recorded. Autopsy of dead animals was performed immediately and the survivors were sacrificed for pathological examination 6h and 12h after the injury. Macroscopic and microscopic changes in the injured limb and distant organs were observed. Fifteen random adult body weights were generated by random number table, and the explosive energy of M14 landmine (about 29g TNT explosive energy was simulated, to compare the ratio of explosive force equivalent to weight calculated between experimental animals and randomly selected adults. Results No significant change in blood pressure was observed at different time points before and after injuries. A broom-like change was found in the injured limb by the general observation. The subareas and pathological changes of injured limb coincided with the typical limb injuries produced by landmine explosion. Damage in different degrees was found in distant organs, and the wound characteristics and injury of major organs were in accordance with the reports of relevant literature. The ratio of explosive equivalent to weight of experimental animals (0.50±0.04g TNT/kg was similar to that of randomly selected adults (0.51±0.05g TNT/kg. Conclusion The present animal model could simulate the landmine explosive injuries, and may be used in research of landmine explosive injuries. DOI: 10.11855/j.issn.0577-7402.2014.01.14

  3. Beyond R0: demographic models for variability of lifetime reproductive output.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hal Caswell

    Full Text Available The net reproductive rate R0 measures the expected lifetime reproductive output of an individual, and plays an important role in demography, ecology, evolution, and epidemiology. Well-established methods exist to calculate it from age- or stage-classified demographic data. As an expectation, R0 provides no information on variability; empirical measurements of lifetime reproduction universally show high levels of variability, and often positive skewness among individuals. This is often interpreted as evidence of heterogeneity, and thus of an opportunity for natural selection. However, variability provides evidence of heterogeneity only if it exceeds the level of variability to be expected in a cohort of identical individuals all experiencing the same vital rates. Such comparisons require a way to calculate the statistics of lifetime reproduction from demographic data. Here, a new approach is presented, using the theory of Markov chains with rewards, obtaining all the moments of the distribution of lifetime reproduction. The approach applies to age- or stage-classified models, to constant, periodic, or stochastic environments, and to any kind of reproductive schedule. As examples, I analyze data from six empirical studies, of a variety of animal and plant taxa (nematodes, polychaetes, humans, and several species of perennial plants.

  4. The contribution of lower vertebrate animal models in human reproduction research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chianese, Rosanna; Chioccarelli, Teresa; Cacciola, Giovanna; Ciaramella, Vincenza; Fasano, Silvia; Pierantoni, Riccardo; Meccariello, Rosaria; Cobellis, Gilda

    2011-03-01

    Many advances have been carried out on the estrogens, GnRH and endocannabinoid system that have impact in the reproductive field. Indeed, estrogens, the generally accepted female hormones, have performed an unsuspected role in male sexual functions thanks to studies on non-mammalian vertebrates. Similarly, these animal models have provided important contributions to the identification of several GnRH ligand and receptor variants and their possible involvement in sexual behavior and gonadal function regulation. Moreover, the use of non-mammalian animal models has contributed to a better comprehension about the endocannabinoid system action in several mammalian reproductive events. We wish to highlight here how non-mammalian vertebrate animal model research contributes to advancements with implications on human health as well as providing a phylogenetic perspective on the evolution of reproductive systems in vertebrates.

  5. Social and genetic structure of paper wasp cofoundress associations: tests of reproductive skew models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, J; Solís, C R; Queller, D C; Strassmann, J E

    1998-06-01

    Recent models postulate that the members of a social group assess their ecological and social environments and agree a "social contract" of reproductive partitioning (skew). We tested social contracts theory by using DNA microsatellites to measure skew in 24 cofoundress associations of paper wasps, Polistes bellicosus. In contrast to theoretical predictions, there was little variation in cofoundress relatedness, and relatedness either did not predict skew or was negatively correlated with it; the dominant/subordinate size ratio, assumed to reflect relative fighting ability, did not predict skew; and high skew was associated with decreased aggression by the rank 2 subordinate toward the dominant. High skew was associated with increased group size. A difficulty with measuring skew in real systems is the frequent changes in group composition that commonly occur in social animals. In P. bellicosus, 61% of egg layers and an unknown number of non-egg layers were absent by the time nests were collected. The social contracts models provide an attractive general framework linking genetics, ecology, and behavior, but there have been few direct tests of their predictions. We question assumptions underlying the models and suggest directions for future research.

  6. The Performance of Discrete Models of Low Reynolds Number Swimmers

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Qixuan

    2015-01-01

    Swimming by shape changes at low Reynolds number is widely used in biology and understanding how the efficiency of movement depends on the geometric pattern of shape changes is important to understand swimming of microorganisms and in designing low Reynolds number swimming models. The simplest models of shape changes are those that comprise a series of linked spheres that can change their separation and/or their size. Herein we compare the efficiency of three models in which these modes are used in different ways.

  7. Factors contributing to the accumulation of reproductive isolation: A mixed model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Dean M

    2017-08-01

    The analysis of large datasets describing reproductive isolation between species has been extremely influential in the study of speciation. However, the statistical methods currently used for these data limit the ability to make direct inferences about the factors predicting the evolution of reproductive isolation. As a result, our understanding of iconic patterns and rules of speciation rely on indirect analyses that have clear statistical limitations. Phylogenetic mixed models are commonly used in ecology and evolution, but have not been applied to studies of reproductive isolation. Here I describe a flexible framework using phylogenetic mixed models to analyze data collected at different evolutionary scales, to test both categorical and continuous predictor variables, and to test the effect of multiple predictors on rates and patterns of reproductive isolation simultaneously. I demonstrate the utility of this framework by re-analyzing four classic datasets, from both animals and plants, and evaluating several hypotheses that could not be tested in the original studies: In the Drosophila and Bufonidae datasets, I found support for more rapid accumulation of reproductive isolation in sympatric species pairs compared to allopatric species pairs. Using Silene and Nolana, I found no evidence supporting the hypothesis that floral differentiation elevates postzygotic reproductive isolation. The faster accumulation of postzygotic isolation in sympatry is likely the result of species coexistence determined by the level of postzygotic isolation between species. In addition, floral trait divergence does not appear to translate into pleiotropic effects on postzygotic reproductive isolation. Overall, these methods can allow researchers to test new hypotheses using a single statistical method, while remedying the statistical limitations of several previous methods.

  8. Electre Tri-C, a multiple criteria decision aiding sorting model applied to assisted reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueira, J R; Almeida-Dias, J; Matias, S; Roy, B; Carvalho, M J; Plancha, C E

    2011-04-01

    The aim of this paper is to apply an informatics tool for dealing with a medical decision aiding problem to help infertile couples to become parents, when using assisted reproduction. A multiple criteria decision aiding method for sorting or ordinal classification problems, called Electre Tri-C, was chosen in order to assign each couple to an embryo-transfer category. The set of categories puts in evidence a way for increasing the single pregnancy rate, while minimizing multiple pregnancies. The decision aiding sorting model was co-constructed through an interaction process between the decision aiding analysts and the medical experts. According to the sample used in this study, the Electre Tri-C method provides a unique category in 86% of the cases and it achieves a sorting accuracy of 61%. Retrospectively, the medical experts do agree that some of their judgments concerning the number of embryos to transfer back to the uterus of the woman could be different according to these results. The current ART methodology achieves a single pregnancy rate of 47% and a twin pregnancy rate of 14%. Thus, this informatics tools may play an important role for supporting ART medical decisions, aiming to increase the single pregnancy rate, while minimizing multiple pregnancies. Building the set of criteria comprises a part of arbitrariness and imperfect knowledge, which require time and expertise to be refined. Among them, three criteria are modeled by means of a holistic classification procedure by the medical experts. 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus infection is associated with an increased number of Sn-positive and CD8-positive cells in the maternal-fetal interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karniychuk, U U; De Spiegelaere, W; Nauwynck, H J

    2013-09-01

    It is already known that porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) infection in lungs changes a local cell pattern and cytokine profile. However, there is no information about cellular and immunological events upon PRRSV infection in the maternal-fetal interface yet. The altered number and/or function of macrophages and NK cells in the maternal-fetal interface during infection may have a functional importance for virus replication. In addition, local cellular and immunological disbalance may also disrupt fragile homeostasis and contribute to the PRRSV-related reproductive disorders. Sialoadhesin (Sn)-positive macrophages are target cells for PRRSV and Sn overexpression has been observed upon chronic inflammatory and infectious diseases. It is also known that mouse Sn-positive macrophages in lymph nodes are able to closely interact with and activate NK cells in response to viral particles. Therefore, the main purpose of the present study was to examine if PRRSV infection is associated with altered Sn expression on endometrial and placental macrophages. In addition, CD8-positive cells (porcine endometrial NK cells were previously described as CD8(+)CD3(-) cells) were localized and quantified in the PRRSV-positive and control tissues. Tissue samples were obtained from three PRRSV-inoculated and three non-inoculated control sows at 100 days of gestation. Real-time RT-PCR showed a clear upregulation of Sn mRNA expression in the PRRSV-positive endometrium/placenta (pPRRSV-inoculated sows had a significantly higher number of Sn-positive macrophages in the endometrium and placenta due to de novo Sn expression on local CD163-positive macrophages. Along with the increased number of Sn-positive macrophages an increased number of CD8-positive cells, which were mostly CD3-negative, was observed in the PRRSV-positive endometrium. The effects of the observed cellular changes on virus replication and potential contribution to placental damage and reproductive

  10. Numerical computations and mathematical modelling with infinite and infinitesimal numbers

    CERN Document Server

    Sergeyev, Yaroslav D

    2012-01-01

    Traditional computers work with finite numbers. Situations where the usage of infinite or infinitesimal quantities is required are studied mainly theoretically. In this paper, a recently introduced computational methodology (that is not related to the non-standard analysis) is used to work with finite, infinite, and infinitesimal numbers \\textit{numerically}. This can be done on a new kind of a computer - the Infinity Computer - able to work with all these types of numbers. The new computational tools both give possibilities to execute computations of a new type and open new horizons for creating new mathematical models where a computational usage of infinite and/or infinitesimal numbers can be useful. A number of numerical examples showing the potential of the new approach and dealing with divergent series, limits, probability theory, linear algebra, and calculation of volumes of objects consisting of parts of different dimensions are given.

  11. Modeling the number of car theft using Poisson regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulkifli, Malina; Ling, Agnes Beh Yen; Kasim, Maznah Mat; Ismail, Noriszura

    2016-10-01

    Regression analysis is the most popular statistical methods used to express the relationship between the variables of response with the covariates. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the factors that influence the number of car theft using Poisson regression model. This paper will focus on the number of car thefts that occurred in districts in Peninsular Malaysia. There are two groups of factor that have been considered, namely district descriptive factors and socio and demographic factors. The result of the study showed that Bumiputera composition, Chinese composition, Other ethnic composition, foreign migration, number of residence with the age between 25 to 64, number of employed person and number of unemployed person are the most influence factors that affect the car theft cases. These information are very useful for the law enforcement department, insurance company and car owners in order to reduce and limiting the car theft cases in Peninsular Malaysia.

  12. Linking reproduction and survival can improve model estimates of vital rates derived from limited time-series counts of pinnipeds and other species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battaile, Brian C; Trites, Andrew W

    2013-01-01

    We propose a method to model the physiological link between somatic survival and reproductive output that reduces the number of parameters that need to be estimated by models designed to determine combinations of birth and death rates that produce historic counts of animal populations. We applied our Reproduction and Somatic Survival Linked (RSSL) method to the population counts of three species of North Pacific pinnipeds (harbor seals, Phoca vitulina richardii (Gray, 1864); northern fur seals, Callorhinus ursinus (L., 1758); and Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus (Schreber, 1776))--and found our model outperformed traditional models when fitting vital rates to common types of limited datasets, such as those from counts of pups and adults. However, our model did not perform as well when these basic counts of animals were augmented with additional observations of ratios of juveniles to total non-pups. In this case, the failure of the ratios to improve model performance may indicate that the relationship between survival and reproduction is redefined or disassociated as populations change over time or that the ratio of juveniles to total non-pups is not a meaningful index of vital rates. Overall, our RSSL models show advantages to linking survival and reproduction within models to estimate the vital rates of pinnipeds and other species that have limited time-series of counts.

  13. Linking reproduction and survival can improve model estimates of vital rates derived from limited time-series counts of pinnipeds and other species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian C Battaile

    Full Text Available We propose a method to model the physiological link between somatic survival and reproductive output that reduces the number of parameters that need to be estimated by models designed to determine combinations of birth and death rates that produce historic counts of animal populations. We applied our Reproduction and Somatic Survival Linked (RSSL method to the population counts of three species of North Pacific pinnipeds (harbor seals, Phoca vitulina richardii (Gray, 1864; northern fur seals, Callorhinus ursinus (L., 1758; and Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus (Schreber, 1776--and found our model outperformed traditional models when fitting vital rates to common types of limited datasets, such as those from counts of pups and adults. However, our model did not perform as well when these basic counts of animals were augmented with additional observations of ratios of juveniles to total non-pups. In this case, the failure of the ratios to improve model performance may indicate that the relationship between survival and reproduction is redefined or disassociated as populations change over time or that the ratio of juveniles to total non-pups is not a meaningful index of vital rates. Overall, our RSSL models show advantages to linking survival and reproduction within models to estimate the vital rates of pinnipeds and other species that have limited time-series of counts.

  14. Toxicity of Nanoparticles on the Reproductive System in Animal Models: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahim Dad Brohi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In the last two decades, nanotechnologies demonstrated various applications in different fields, including detection, sensing, catalysis, electronics, and biomedical sciences. However, public concerns regarding the well-being of human may hinder the wide utilization of this promising innovation. Although, humans are exposed to airborne nanosized particles from an early age, exposure to such particles has risen dramatically within the last century due to anthropogenic sources of nanoparticles. The wide application of nanomaterials in industry, consumer products, and medicine has raised concerns regarding the potential toxicity of nanoparticles in humans. In this review, the effects of nanomaterials on the reproductive system in animal models are discussed. Females are particularly more vulnerable to nanoparticle toxicity, and toxicity in this population may affect reproductivity and fetal development. Moreover, various types of nanoparticles have negative impacts on male germ cells, fetal development, and the female reproductive system. These impacts are associated with nanoparticle modification, composition, concentration, route of administration, and the species of the animal. Therefore, understanding the impacts of nanoparticles on animal growth and reproduction is essential. Many studies have examined the effects of nanoparticles on primary and secondary target organs, with a concentration on the in vivo and in vitro effects of nanoparticles on the male and female reproductive systems at the clinical, cellular, and molecular levels. This review provides important information regarding organism safety and the potential hazards of nanoparticle use and supports the application of nanotechnologies by minimizing the adverse effects of nanoparticles in vulnerable populations.

  15. Product versus additive threshold models for analysis of reproduction outcomes in animal genetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, I; Bodin, L; Gianola, D; Legarra, A; Manfredi, E; Robert-Granié, C

    2009-08-01

    The phenotypic observation of some reproduction traits (e.g., insemination success, interval from lambing to insemination) is the result of environmental and genetic factors acting on 2 individuals: the male and female involved in a mating couple. In animal genetics, the main approach (called additive model) proposed for studying such traits assumes that the phenotype is linked to a purely additive combination, either on the observed scale for continuous traits or on some underlying scale for discrete traits, of environmental and genetic effects affecting the 2 individuals. Statistical models proposed for studying human fecundability generally consider reproduction outcomes as the product of hypothetical unobservable variables. Taking inspiration from these works, we propose a model (product threshold model) for studying a binary reproduction trait that supposes that the observed phenotype is the product of 2 unobserved phenotypes, 1 for each individual. We developed a Gibbs sampling algorithm for fitting a Bayesian product threshold model including additive genetic effects and showed by simulation that it is feasible and that it provides good estimates of the parameters. We showed that fitting an additive threshold model to data that are simulated under a product threshold model provides biased estimates, especially for individuals with high breeding values. A main advantage of the product threshold model is that, in contrast to the additive model, it provides distinct estimates of fixed effects affecting each of the 2 unobserved phenotypes.

  16. Estimation of reproduction number and probable vector density of the first autochthonous dengue outbreak in Japan in the last 70 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furuya, Hiroyuki

    2015-11-01

    The first autochthonous case of dengue fever in Japan since 1945 was reported on August 27, 2014. Infection was transmitted by Aedes albopictus mosquitoes in Tokyo's Yoyogi Park. A total of 65 cases with no history of overseas travel and who may have been infected around the park were reported as of September 5, 2014. To quantify infection risk of the local epidemic, the reproduction number and vector density per person at the onset of the epidemic were estimated. The estimated probability distribution and the number of female mosquitoes per person (MPP) were determined from the data of the initial epidemic. The estimated distribution R(0i) for the initial epidemic was fitted to a Gamma distribution using location parameter 4.25, scale parameter 0.19, and shape parameter 7.76 with median 7.78 and IQR (7.21-8.40). The MPP was fitted to a normal distribution with mean 5.71 and standard deviation 0.53. Both estimated reproduction number and vector density per person at the onset of the epidemic were higher than previously reported values. These results indicate the potential for dengue outbreaks in places with elevated vector density per person, even in dengue non-endemic countries. To investigate the cause of this outbreak, further studies will be needed, including assessments of social, behavioral, and environmental factors that may have contributed to this epidemic by altering host and vector conditions in the park.

  17. Consistency and asymptotic normality of profilekernel and backfitting estimators in semiparametric reproductive dispersion nonlinear models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Semiparametric reproductive dispersion nonlinear model (SRDNM) is an extension of nonlinear reproductive dispersion models and semiparametric nonlinear regression models, and includes semiparametric nonlinear model and semiparametric generalized linear model as its special cases. Based on the local kernel estimate of nonparametric component, profile-kernel and backfitting estimators of parameters of interest are proposed in SRDNM, and theoretical comparison of both estimators is also investigated in this paper. Under some regularity conditions, strong consistency and asymptotic normality of two estimators are proved. It is shown that the backfitting method produces a larger asymptotic variance than that for the profile-kernel method. A simulation study and a real example are used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.

  18. A tale of two morphs: modeling pollen transfer, magic traits, and reproductive isolation in parapatry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haller, Benjamin C; de Vos, Jurriaan M; Keller, Barbara; Hendry, Andrew P; Conti, Elena

    2014-01-01

    The evolution of the flower is commonly thought to have spurred angiosperm diversification. Similarly, particular floral traits might have promoted diversification within specific angiosperm clades. We hypothesize that traits promoting the precise positional transfer of pollen between flowers might promote diversification. In particular, precise pollen transfer might produce partial reproductive isolation that facilitates adaptive divergence between parapatric populations differing in their reproductive-organ positions. We investigate this hypothesis with an individual-based model of pollen transfer dynamics associated with heterostyly, a floral syndrome that depends on precise pollen transfer. Our model shows that precise pollen transfer can cause sexual selection leading to divergence in reproductive-organ positions between populations served by different pollinators, pleiotropically causing an increase in reproductive isolation through a "magic trait" mechanism. Furthermore, this increased reproductive isolation facilitates adaptive divergence between the populations in an unlinked, ecologically selected trait. In a different pollination scenario, however, precise pollen transfer causes a decrease in adaptive divergence by promoting asymmetric gene flow. Our results highlight the idea that magic traits are not "magic" in isolation; in particular, the effect size of magic traits in speciation depends on the external environment, and also on other traits that modify the strength of the magic trait's influence on non-random mating. Overall, we show that the evolutionary consequences of pollen transfer dynamics can depend strongly on the available pollinator fauna and on the morphological fit between flowers and pollinators. Furthermore, our results illustrate the potential importance of even weak reproductive isolating barriers in facilitating adaptive divergence.

  19. Modelling perceptual characteristics of loudspeaker reproduction in a stereo setup

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Volk, Christer Peter; Bech, Søren; Pedersen, Torben Holm

    2017-01-01

    of the perceptual evaluation, four of the descriptors were found suited for modelling, with the purpose of developing metrics for prediction of Bass depth, Punch, Brilliance, and Dark-Bright. Bass depth and Punch were modelled as one due to high correlation between them. The experimental setup included loudspeaker...

  20. Using energetic models to investigate the survival and reproduction of beaked whales (family Ziphiidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    New, Leslie F; Moretti, David J; Hooker, Sascha K; Costa, Daniel P; Simmons, Samantha E

    2013-01-01

    Mass stranding of several species of beaked whales (family Ziphiidae) associated with exposure to anthropogenic sounds has raised concern for the conservation of these species. However, little is known about the species' life histories, prey or habitat requirements. Without this knowledge, it becomes difficult to assess the effects of anthropogenic sound, since there is no way to determine whether the disturbance is impacting the species' physical or environmental requirements. Here we take a bioenergetics approach to address this gap in our knowledge, as the elusive, deep-diving nature of beaked whales has made it hard to study these effects directly. We develop a model for Ziphiidae linking feeding energetics to the species' requirements for survival and reproduction, since these life history traits would be the most likely to be impacted by non-lethal disturbances. Our models suggest that beaked whale reproduction requires energy dense prey, and that poor resource availability would lead to an extension of the inter-calving interval. Further, given current information, it seems that some beaked whale species require relatively high quality habitat in order to meet their requirements for survival and reproduction. As a result, even a small non-lethal disturbance that results in displacement of whales from preferred habitats could potentially impact a population if a significant proportion of that population was affected. We explored the impact of varying ecological parameters and model assumptions on survival and reproduction, and find that calf and fetus survival appear more readily affected than the survival of adult females.

  1. Transmission rate and reproductive number of the H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus during the December 2005-July 2008 epidemic in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bett, B; Henning, J; Abdu, P; Okike, I; Poole, J; Young, J; Randolph, T F; Perry, B D

    2014-02-01

    We quantified the between-village transmission rate, β (the rate of transmission of H5N1 HPAI virus per effective contact), and the reproductive number, Re (the average number of outbreaks caused by one infectious village during its entire infectious period), of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus in Nigeria using outbreak data collected between December 2005 and July 2008. We classified the outbreaks into two phases to assess the effectiveness of the control measures implemented. Phase 1 (December 2005-October 2006) represents the period when the Federal Government of Nigeria managed the HPAI surveillance and response measures, while Phase 2 (November 2006-July 2008) represents the time during which the Nigeria Avian Influenza Control and Human Pandemic Preparedness project (NAICP), funded by a World Bank credit of US$ 50 million, had taken over the management of most of the interventions. We used a total of 204 outbreaks from 176 villages that occurred in 78 local government areas of 25 states. The compartmental susceptible-infectious model was used as the analytical tool. Means and 95% percentile confidence intervals were obtained using bootstrapping techniques. The overall mean β (assuming a duration of infectiousness, T, of 12 days) was 0.07/day (95% percentile confidence interval: 0.06-0.09). The first and second phases of the epidemic had comparable β estimates of 0.06/day (0.04-0.09) and 0.08/day (0.06-0.10), respectively. The Re of the virus associated with these β and T estimates was 0.9 (0.7-1.1); the first and second phases of the epidemic had Re of 0.84 (0.5-1.2) and 0.9 (0.6-1.2), respectively. We conclude that the intervention measures implemented in the second phase of the epidemic had comparable effects to those implemented during the first phase and that the Re of the epidemic was low, indicating that the Nigeria H5N1 HPAI epidemic was unstable.

  2. Modelling protocells the emergent synchronization of reproduction and molecular replication

    CERN Document Server

    Serra, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    The monograph discusses models of synthetic protocells, which are cell-like structures obtained from non-living matter endowed with some rudimentary kind of metabolism and genetics, but much simpler than biological cells. They should grow and proliferate, generating offsprings that resemble in some way the parent protocells with some variation, so that selection may take place. Sustainable protocell populations have not yet been obtained experimentally and mathematical models are therefore extremely important to address key questions concerning their synthesis and behavior. Different protocell “architectures” have been proposed and high-level abstract models like those that are presented in this book are particularly relevant to gain a better understanding of the different properites. These models are able to treat all the major dynamical phenomena in a unified framework, so they can be seen as “virtual laboratories” for protocell research. Particular attention is paid to the problem of synchronizatio...

  3. Application of Z-Number Based Modeling in Psychological Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafik Aliev

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Pilates exercises have been shown beneficial impact on physical, physiological, and mental characteristics of human beings. In this paper, Z-number based fuzzy approach is applied for modeling the effect of Pilates exercises on motivation, attention, anxiety, and educational achievement. The measuring of psychological parameters is performed using internationally recognized instruments: Academic Motivation Scale (AMS, Test of Attention (D2 Test, and Spielberger’s Anxiety Test completed by students. The GPA of students was used as the measure of educational achievement. Application of Z-information modeling allows us to increase precision and reliability of data processing results in the presence of uncertainty of input data created from completed questionnaires. The basic steps of Z-number based modeling with numerical solutions are presented.

  4. Baryon number fluctuations in quasi-particle model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Ameng [Southeast University Chengxian College, Department of Foundation, Nanjing (China); Luo, Xiaofeng [Central China Normal University, Key Laboratory of Quark and Lepton Physics (MOE), Institute of Particle Physics, Wuhan (China); Zong, Hongshi [Nanjing University, Department of Physics, Nanjing (China); Joint Center for Particle, Nuclear Physics and Cosmology, Nanjing (China); Institute of Theoretical Physics, CAS, State Key Laboratory of Theoretical Physics, Beijing (China)

    2017-04-15

    Baryon number fluctuations are sensitive to the QCD phase transition and the QCD critical point. According to the Feynman rules of finite-temperature field theory, we calculated various order moments and cumulants of the baryon number distributions in the quasi-particle model of the quark-gluon plasma. Furthermore, we compared our results with the experimental data measured by the STAR experiment at RHIC. It is found that the experimental data can be well described by the model for the colliding energies above 30 GeV and show large discrepancies at low energies. This puts a new constraint on the qQGP model and also provides a baseline for the QCD critical point search in heavy-ion collisions at low energies. (orig.)

  5. Baryon Number Fluctuations in Quasi-particle Model

    CERN Document Server

    Zhao, Ameng; Zong, Hongshi

    2016-01-01

    Baryon number fluctuations are sensitive to the QCD phase transition and QCD critical point. According to the Feynman rules of finite-temperature field theory, we calculated various order moments and cumulants of the baryon number distributions in the quasi-particle model of quark gluon plasma. Furthermore, we compared our results with the experimental data measured by the STAR experiment at RHIC. It is found that the experimental data can be well described by the model for the colliding energies above 30 GeV and show large discrepancies at low energies. It can put new constraint on qQGP model and also provide a baseline for the QCD critical point search in heavy-ion collisions at low energies.

  6. Number of fermion generations from a novel grand unified model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byakti, Pritibhajan; Mazumdar, Arindam; Pal, Palash B. [Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics, Kolkata (India); Emmanuel-Costa, David [Universidade de Lisboa, Departamento de Fisica and Centro de Fisica Teorica de Particulas (CFTP), Instituto Superior Tecnico (IST), Lisbon (Portugal)

    2014-02-15

    Electroweak interactions based on the gauge group SU(3){sub L} x U(1){sub X}, coupled to the QCD gauge group SU(3){sub c}, can predict the number of generations to be multiples of three. We first try to unify these models within SU(N) groups, using antisymmetric tensor representations only. After examining why these attempts fail, we continue to search for an SU(N) GUT that can explain the number of fermion generations. We show that such a model can be found for N = 9, with fermions in antisymmetric rank-1 and rank-3 representations only, and we examine the constraints on various masses in the model coming from the requirement of unification. (orig.)

  7. Different Higgs models and the number of Higgs particles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marek-Crnjac, L. [University of Maribor, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Smetanova ulica 17, SI-2000 Maribor (Slovenia)] e-mail: fs.taj06@uni-mb.si

    2006-02-01

    In this short paper we discuss some interesting Higgs models. It is concluded that the most likely scheme for the Higgs particles consists of five physical Higgs particles. These are two charged H{sup +}, H{sup -} and three neutrals h {sup 0}, H{sup 0}, A{sup 0}. Further more the most probably total number of elementary particles for each model is calculated [El Naschie MS. Experimental and theoretical arguments for the number of the mass of the Higgs particles. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2005;23:1091-8; El Naschie MS. Determining the mass of the Higgs and the electroweak bosons. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2005;24:899-905; El Naschie MS. On 366 kissing spheres in 10 dimensions, 528 P-Brane states in 11 dimensions and the 60 elementary particles of the standard model. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2005;24:447-57].

  8. Integrative rodent models for assessing male reproductive toxicity of environmental endocrine active substances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques Auger

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available In the present review, we first summarize the main benefits, limitations and pitfalls of conventional in vivo approaches to assessing male reproductive structures and functions in rodents in cases of endocrine active substance (EAS exposure from the postulate that they may provide data that can be extrapolated to humans. Then, we briefly present some integrated approaches in rodents we have recently developed at the organism level. We particularly focus on the possible effects and modes of action (MOA of these substances at low doses and in mixtures, real-life conditions and at the organ level, deciphering the precise effects and MOA on the fetal testis. It can be considered that the in vivo experimental EAS exposure of rodents remains the first choice for studies and is a necessary tool (together with the epidemiological approach for understanding the reproductive effects and MOA of EASs, provided the pitfalls and limitations of the rodent models are known and considered. We also provide some evidence that classical rodent models may be refined for studying the multiple consequences of EAS exposure, not only on the reproductive axis but also on various hormonally regulated organs and tissues, among which several are implicated in the complex process of mammalian reproduction. Such models constitute an interesting way of approaching human exposure conditions. Finally, we show that organotypic culture models are powerful complementary tools, especially when focusing on the MOA. All these approaches have contributed in a combinatorial manner to a better understanding of the impact of EAS exposure on human reproduction.

  9. Too Many PhD Graduates or Too Few Academic Job Openings: The Basic Reproductive Number R0 in Academia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Richard C; Ghaffarzadegan, Navid; Xue, Yi

    2014-01-01

    The academic job market has become increasingly competitive for PhD graduates. In this note, we ask the basic question of 'Are we producing more PhDs than needed?' We take a systems approach and offer a 'birth rate' perspective: professors graduate PhDs who later become professors themselves, an analogue to how a population grows. We show that the reproduction rate in academia is very high. For example, in engineering, a professor in the US graduates 7.8 new PhDs during his/her whole career on average, and only one of these graduates can replace the professor's position. This implies that in a steady state, only 12.8% of PhD graduates can attain academic positions in the USA. The key insight is that the system in many places is saturated, far beyond capacity to absorb new PhDs in academia at the rates that they are being produced. Based on the analysis, we discuss policy implications.

  10. Reproduction of hypopnea phenomenon using a physical and numerical model

    CERN Document Server

    Chouly, F; Lagrée, P Y; Pelorson, X; Payan, Y; Chouly, Franz; Hirtum, Annemie Van; Lagr\\'{e}e, Pierre-Yves; Pelorson, Xavier; Payan, Yohan

    2004-01-01

    Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome is now considered as a major health care topic. An in-vitro setup which reproduces and simplifies upper airway geometry has been the basis to study the fluid/walls interaction that leads to an apnea. It consists of a rigid pipe (the pharynx) in contact with a deformable latex cylinder filled with water (the tongue). Air flows out of the rigid pipe and induces pressure forces on the cylinder. We present a numerical model of this setup: a finite element model of the latex cylinder is in interaction with a fluid model. Simulation of an hypopnea (partial collapsus of the airway) has been possible and in agreement with observations from the in-vitro setup. The same phenomenon has been simulated on a soft palate model obtained from a patient sagittal radiography. These first results encourage us to improve the model so as it could reproduce the complete apnea phenomenon, and be used for a planification purpose in sleep apnea surgery.

  11. Long-term fiscal implications of funding assisted reproduction: a generational accounting model for Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Matorras

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to assess the lifetime economic benefits of assisted reproduction in Spain by calculating the return on this investment. We developed a generational accounting model that simulates the flow of taxes paid by the individual, minus direct government transfers received over the individual’s lifetime. The difference between discounted transfers and taxes minus the cost of either IVF or artificial insemination (AI equals the net fiscal contribution (NFC of a child conceived through assisted reproduction. We conducted sensitivity analysis to test the robustness of our results under various macroeconomic scenarios. A child conceived through assisted reproduction would contribute €370,482 in net taxes to the Spanish Treasury and would receive €275,972 in transfers over their lifetime. Taking into account that only 75% of assisted reproduction pregnancies are successful, the NFC was estimated at €66,709 for IVF-conceived children and €67,253 for AI-conceived children. The return on investment for each euro invested was €15.98 for IVF and €18.53 for AI. The long-term NFC of a child conceived through assisted reproduction could range from €466,379 to €-9,529 (IVF and from €466,923 to €-8,985 (AI. The return on investment would vary between €-2.28 and €111.75 (IVF, and €-2.48 and €128.66 (AI for each euro invested. The break-even point at which the financial position would begin to favour the Spanish Treasury ranges between 29 and 41 years of age. Investment in assisted reproductive techniques may lead to positive discounted future fiscal revenue, notwithstanding its beneficial psychological effect for infertile couples in Spain.

  12. A study of male reproductive form and function in a rat model

    OpenAIRE

    Mark Daniel Wilson

    2014-01-01

    Objective: This investigation was undertaken in the hope of delineating the effects of four different treatments on male reproductive biology in a rat model. The effect of cryptorchidism, gonadectomy, pharmacological ablation of Leydig cell function and androgen-treatment was examined; these four treatments illustrate four different factors influencing and controlling male sexual function in a reproducible animal model. Methods: Total body weight, androgen concentration, gonad weight and s...

  13. Early real-time estimation of the basic reproduction number of emerging or reemerging infectious diseases in a community with heterogeneous contact pattern: Using data from Hong Kong 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Influenza as an illustrative example.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kin On Kwok

    Full Text Available Emerging and re-emerging infections such as SARS (2003 and pandemic H1N1 (2009 have caused concern for public health researchers and policy makers due to the increased burden of these diseases on health care systems. This concern has prompted the use of mathematical models to evaluate strategies to control disease spread, making these models invaluable tools to identify optimal intervention strategies. A particularly important quantity in infectious disease epidemiology is the basic reproduction number, R0. Estimation of this quantity is crucial for effective control responses in the early phase of an epidemic. In our previous study, an approach for estimating the basic reproduction number in real time was developed. This approach uses case notification data and the structure of potential transmission contacts to accurately estimate R0 from the limited amount of information available at the early stage of an outbreak. Based on this approach, we extend the existing methodology; the most recent method features intra- and inter-age groups contact heterogeneity. Given the number of newly reported cases at the early stage of the outbreak, with parsimony assumptions on removal distribution and infectivity profile of the diseases, experiments to estimate real time R0 under different levels of intra- and inter-group contact heterogeneity using two age groups are presented. We show that the new method converges more quickly to the actual value of R0 than the previous one, in particular when there is high-level intra-group and inter-group contact heterogeneity. With the age specific contact patterns, number of newly reported cases, removal distribution, and information about the natural history of the 2009 pandemic influenza in Hong Kong, we also use the extended model to estimate R0 and age-specific R0.

  14. Conceptual Model of Business Situation of Attraction and Reproduction of Temporary Personnel of the Event Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donets Oleksiy S.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article considers importance of formation of the acting system of personnel management, since personnel determines the competitive potential and competitive advantages of an organisation. It develops a cognitive model of a business situation, which helps to present the process of attraction and reproduction of temporary personnel at enterprises, which deal with organisation of large-scale events, and influence of the factors upon each other. It builds a conceptual model of a business situation of attraction and reproduction of temporary personnel of the event service and, on its basis, offers a model of decision making with the use of elements of fuzzy logic on selection of a specialist for a specific position. It allocates main characteristics of employees, which are taken into account when forming decisions regarding taking on a candidate.

  15. Towards greater realism in inclusive fitness models: the case of worker reproduction in insect societies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenseleers, Tom; Helanterä, Heikki; Alves, Denise A; Dueñez-Guzmán, Edgar; Pamilo, Pekka

    2013-01-01

    The conflicts over sex allocation and male production in insect societies have long served as an important test bed for Hamilton's theory of inclusive fitness, but have for the most part been considered separately. Here, we develop new coevolutionary models to examine the interaction between these two conflicts and demonstrate that sex ratio and colony productivity costs of worker reproduction can lead to vastly different outcomes even in species that show no variation in their relatedness structure. Empirical data on worker-produced males in eight species of Melipona bees support the predictions from a model that takes into account the demographic details of colony growth and reproduction. Overall, these models contribute significantly to explaining behavioural variation that previous theories could not account for.

  16. Supervision in Factor Models Using a Large Number of Predictors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boldrini, Lorenzo; Hillebrand, Eric Tobias

    In this paper we investigate the forecasting performance of a particular factor model (FM) in which the factors are extracted from a large number of predictors. We use a semi-parametric state-space representation of the FM in which the forecast objective, as well as the factors, is included.......g. a standard dynamic factor model with separate forecast and state equations....... in the state vector. The factors are informed of the forecast target (supervised) through the state equation dynamics. We propose a way to assess the contribution of the forecast objective on the extracted factors that exploits the Kalman filter recursions. We forecast one target at a time based...

  17. Parameterized reduced-order models using hyper-dual numbers.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fike, Jeffrey A.; Brake, Matthew Robert

    2013-10-01

    The goal of most computational simulations is to accurately predict the behavior of a real, physical system. Accurate predictions often require very computationally expensive analyses and so reduced order models (ROMs) are commonly used. ROMs aim to reduce the computational cost of the simulations while still providing accurate results by including all of the salient physics of the real system in the ROM. However, real, physical systems often deviate from the idealized models used in simulations due to variations in manufacturing or other factors. One approach to this issue is to create a parameterized model in order to characterize the effect of perturbations from the nominal model on the behavior of the system. This report presents a methodology for developing parameterized ROMs, which is based on Craig-Bampton component mode synthesis and the use of hyper-dual numbers to calculate the derivatives necessary for the parameterization.

  18. Low-Reynolds number modelling of flows with transpiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, C. B.; Lin, C. A.

    2000-03-01

    An improved low-Reynolds number model was adopted to predict the dynamic and thermal fields in flows with transpiration. The performance of the adopted model was first contrasted with the direct numerical simulation (DNS) data of channel flow with uniform wall injection and suction. The validity of the present model applied to flows with a high level of transpiration was further examined. To explore the model's performance in complex environments, the model was applied to simulate a transpired developing channel flow. By contrasting the predictions with DNS data and measurements, the results indicated that the present model reproduced correctly the deceleration and acceleration of the flow caused by the injection and suction from the permeable part of the wall. The turbulence structure of transpired flows was also well captured and the superior performance of the adopted model was reflected by the predicted correct level of with the maximum being located at both the injection and the suction walls. The predicted thermal field by the present model also compared favourably with the DNS data and measurements. Copyright

  19. Mathematical modelling of decline in follicle pool during female reproductive ageing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thilagam, Alagu

    2016-03-01

    The factors which govern the subtle links between follicle loss and mammalian female reproductive ageing remain unclear despite extensive studies undertaken to understand the critical physiological and biochemical mechanisms that underly the accelerated decline in follicle numbers in women older than 37 years. It is not certain whether there is a sole control by the ovary or whether other factors which affect ageing also intersect with the ovarian effect. There is convincing experimental evidence for an interplay of several processes that seem to influence the follicle loss-female reproductive ageing links, with specific hormones (follicle-stimulating hormone, anti-Müllerian hormone, dehydroepiandrosterone) noted to play important roles in follicular dynamics and ovarian ageing. In this work, we examine the subtle links between the rate of follicular decline with ageing and the role of hormones via a series of non-autonomous equations. Simulation results based on the time evolution of the number of ovarian follicles and biochemical changes in the ovarian environment influenced by hormone levels is compared with empirical data based on follicle loss-reproductive ageing correlation studies. © Crown copyright 2015.

  20. Analysis of male reproductive parameters in a murine model of mucopolysaccharidosis type I (MPS I).

    Science.gov (United States)

    do Nascimento, Cinthia Castro; Junior, Odair Aguiar; D'Almeida, Vânia

    2014-01-01

    Mucopolysaccharidosis (MPS) I is a lysosomal storage disorder (LSD) that is characterised by alpha-L-iduronidase (Idua) deficiency and continuous deposition of glycosaminoglycans (GAGs), which consequently interferes with cell signalling mechanisms and results in multisystemic and progressive symptoms. The animal model of MPS I (Idua-/-) has been widely studied to elucidate the consequences and progression of the disorder; however, studies specifically assessing the male reproductive tract are lacking. The aim of this study was to evaluate some of the reproductive characteristics of male MPS I mice in two phases of life. Reproductive organ biometry, sperm counts, sperm morphological evaluation, plasma testosterone measurements and histopathological, histomorphometrical and immunohistochemical analysis were performed in 3- and 6-month-old C57BL/6 Idua+/+ and Idua-/- mice. Seminal vesicle weights were decreased in both the 3- and 6-month-old Idua-/- mice. Decrease in sperm counts and the majority of the histopathological signs were observed in the 6-month-old Idua-/- mice. No differences were detected in the sperm morphological analysis. Immunohistochemistry revealed that seminiferous tubules from 3-month-old Idua-/- mice were more intensely stained with anti-caspase-3 than 3-month-old Idua+/+ mice, but no difference was found at 6 months. These results suggest that MPS I interferes with male reproductive parameters both in 3 and 6-month-old animals and histopathological signs are more pronounced in 6-month-old mice, indicating that the effects of the disorder may intensify with the disease progression.

  1. Reproductive health beliefs and behaviors in teens with diabetes: application of the Expanded Health Belief Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charron-Prochownik, D; Sereika, S M; Becker, D; Jacober, S; Mansfield, J; White, N H; Hughes, S; Dean-McElhinny, T; Trail, L

    2001-03-01

    To identify significant correlates among constructs of the Expanded Health Belief Model (EHBM) with reproductive health behaviors [preventing an unplanned pregnancy and seeking preconception counseling (PC)] and metabolic control in teenaged women with type 1 diabetes. Eighty adolescent women with type 1 diabetes participated in a multisite, exploratory, case-control study. Subjects (only cases, and not controls, were used for the analyses of this paper) had a single, 1-h structured phone interview with a trained, same gender research assistant. Variables of interest were awareness, knowledge, health beliefs, attitudes, intention and behaviors regarding diabetes and reproductive health. Several major constructs of the EHBM were significantly correlated in the expected direction with reproductive health behaviors and metabolic control of adolescents with type 1 diabetes. In particular, perceived susceptibility, barriers, threat, intention, and self-efficacy with birth control (BC) use, and motivational cue (initial awareness of PC) with seeking PC. Being told by a health care professional to seek out PC is a motivational cue that triggers action. The timing of this message would seem to play an important role in preventing an unplanned pregnancy. Therefore, interventions focusing on changing health beliefs and on increasing awareness may be effective in promoting positive reproductive health behaviors in adolescent females with diabetes.

  2. A dynamical phyllotaxis model to determine floral organ number.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miho S Kitazawa

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available How organisms determine particular organ numbers is a fundamental key to the development of precise body structures; however, the developmental mechanisms underlying organ-number determination are unclear. In many eudicot plants, the primordia of sepals and petals (the floral organs first arise sequentially at the edge of a circular, undifferentiated region called the floral meristem, and later transition into a concentric arrangement called a whorl, which includes four or five organs. The properties controlling the transition to whorls comprising particular numbers of organs is little explored. We propose a development-based model of floral organ-number determination, improving upon earlier models of plant phyllotaxis that assumed two developmental processes: the sequential initiation of primordia in the least crowded space around the meristem and the constant growth of the tip of the stem. By introducing mutual repulsion among primordia into the growth process, we numerically and analytically show that the whorled arrangement emerges spontaneously from the sequential initiation of primordia. Moreover, by allowing the strength of the inhibition exerted by each primordium to decrease as the primordium ages, we show that pentamerous whorls, in which the angular and radial positions of the primordia are consistent with those observed in sepal and petal primordia in Silene coeli-rosa, Caryophyllaceae, become the dominant arrangement. The organ number within the outmost whorl, corresponding to the sepals, takes a value of four or five in a much wider parameter space than that in which it takes a value of six or seven. These results suggest that mutual repulsion among primordia during growth and a temporal decrease in the strength of the inhibition during initiation are required for the development of the tetramerous and pentamerous whorls common in eudicots.

  3. Reproductive number and serial interval of the first wave of influenza A(H1N1pdm09 virus in South Africa.

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    Brett N Archer

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Describing transmissibility parameters of past pandemics from diverse geographic sites remains critical to planning responses to future outbreaks. We characterize the transmissibility of influenza A(H1N1pdm09 (hereafter pH1N1 in South Africa during 2009 by estimating the serial interval (SI, the initial effective reproductive number (initial R(t and the temporal variation of R(t. METHODS: We make use of data from a central registry of all pH1N1 laboratory-confirmed cases detected throughout South Africa. Whenever date of symptom onset is missing, we estimate it from the date of specimen collection using a multiple imputation approach repeated 100 times for each missing value. We apply a likelihood-based method (method 1 for simultaneous estimation of initial R(t and the SI; estimate initial R(t from SI distributions established from prior field studies (method 2; and the Wallinga and Teunis method (method 3 to model the temporal variation of R(t. RESULTS: 12,360 confirmed pH1N1 cases were reported in the central registry. During the period of exponential growth of the epidemic (June 21 to August 3, 2009, we simultaneously estimate a mean R(t of 1.47 (95% CI: 1.30-1.72 and mean SI of 2.78 days (95% CI: 1.80-3.75 (method 1. Field studies found a mean SI of 2.3 days between primary cases and laboratory-confirmed secondary cases, and 2.7 days when considering both suspected and confirmed secondary cases. Incorporating the SI estimate from field studies using laboratory-confirmed cases, we found an initial R(t of 1.43 (95% CI: 1.38-1.49 (method 2. The mean R(t peaked at 2.91 (95% CI: 0.85-2.91 on June 21, as the epidemic commenced, and R(t>1 was sustained until August 22 (method 3. CONCLUSIONS: Transmissibility characteristics of pH1N1 in South Africa are similar to estimates reported by countries outside of Africa. Estimations using the likelihood-based method are in agreement with field findings.

  4. Binary tree models of high-Reynolds-number turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aurell, Erik; Dormy, Emmanuel; Frick, Peter

    1997-08-01

    We consider hierarchical models for turbulence, that are simple generalizations of the standard Gledzer-Ohkitani-Yamada shell models (E. B. Gledzer, Dokl, Akad. Nauk SSSR 209, 5 (1973) [Sov. Phys. Dokl. 18, 216 (1973)]; M. Yamada and K. Ohkitani, J. Phys. Soc. Jpn. 56, 4210 (1987)). The density of degrees of freedom is constant in wave-number space. Looking only at this behavior and at the quadratic invariants in the inviscid unforced limit, the models can be thought of as systems living naturally in one spatial dimension, but being qualitatively similar to hydrodynamics in two (2D) and three dimensions. We investigated cascade phenomena and intermittency in the different cases. We observed and studied a forward cascade of enstrophy in the 2D case.

  5. Rapid evolution and copy number variation of primate RHOXF2, an X-linked homeobox gene involved in male reproduction and possibly brain function

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    Zhang Rui

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Homeobox genes are the key regulators during development, and they are in general highly conserved with only a few reported cases of rapid evolution. RHOXF2 is an X-linked homeobox gene in primates. It is highly expressed in the testicle and may play an important role in spermatogenesis. As male reproductive system is often the target of natural and/or sexual selection during evolution, in this study, we aim to dissect the pattern of molecular evolution of RHOXF2 in primates and its potential functional consequence. Results We studied sequences and copy number variation of RHOXF2 in humans and 16 nonhuman primate species as well as the expression patterns in human, chimpanzee, white-browed gibbon and rhesus macaque. The gene copy number analysis showed that there had been parallel gene duplications/losses in multiple primate lineages. Our evidence suggests that 11 nonhuman primate species have one RHOXF2 copy, and two copies are present in humans and four Old World monkey species, and at least 6 copies in chimpanzees. Further analysis indicated that the gene duplications in primates had likely been mediated by endogenous retrovirus (ERV sequences flanking the gene regions. In striking contrast to non-human primates, humans appear to have homogenized their two RHOXF2 copies by the ERV-mediated non-allelic recombination mechanism. Coding sequence and phylogenetic analysis suggested multi-lineage strong positive selection on RHOXF2 during primate evolution, especially during the origins of humans and chimpanzees. All the 8 coding region polymorphic sites in human populations are non-synonymous, implying on-going selection. Gene expression analysis demonstrated that besides the preferential expression in the reproductive system, RHOXF2 is also expressed in the brain. The quantitative data suggests expression pattern divergence among primate species. Conclusions RHOXF2 is a fast-evolving homeobox gene in primates. The rapid

  6. Modeling users' activity on twitter networks: validation of Dunbar's number.

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    Bruno Gonçalves

    Full Text Available Microblogging and mobile devices appear to augment human social capabilities, which raises the question whether they remove cognitive or biological constraints on human communication. In this paper we analyze a dataset of Twitter conversations collected across six months involving 1.7 million individuals and test the theoretical cognitive limit on the number of stable social relationships known as Dunbar's number. We find that the data are in agreement with Dunbar's result; users can entertain a maximum of 100-200 stable relationships. Thus, the 'economy of attention' is limited in the online world by cognitive and biological constraints as predicted by Dunbar's theory. We propose a simple model for users' behavior that includes finite priority queuing and time resources that reproduces the observed social behavior.

  7. Modeling users' activity on Twitter networks: validation of Dunbar's number

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goncalves, Bruno; Perra, Nicola; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2012-02-01

    Microblogging and mobile devices appear to augment human social capabilities, which raises the question whether they remove cognitive or biological constraints on human communication. In this paper we analyze a dataset of Twitter conversations collected across six months involving 1.7 million individuals and test the theoretical cognitive limit on the number of stable social relationships known as Dunbar's number. We find that the data are in agreement with Dunbar's result; users can entertain a maximum of 100-200 stable relationships. Thus, the ``economy of attention'' is limited in the online world by cognitive and biological constraints as predicted by Dunbar's theory. We propose a simple model for users' behavior that includes finite priority queuing and time resources that reproduces the observed social behavior.

  8. Modeling users' activity on twitter networks: validation of Dunbar's number.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonçalves, Bruno; Perra, Nicola; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2011-01-01

    Microblogging and mobile devices appear to augment human social capabilities, which raises the question whether they remove cognitive or biological constraints on human communication. In this paper we analyze a dataset of Twitter conversations collected across six months involving 1.7 million individuals and test the theoretical cognitive limit on the number of stable social relationships known as Dunbar's number. We find that the data are in agreement with Dunbar's result; users can entertain a maximum of 100-200 stable relationships. Thus, the 'economy of attention' is limited in the online world by cognitive and biological constraints as predicted by Dunbar's theory. We propose a simple model for users' behavior that includes finite priority queuing and time resources that reproduces the observed social behavior.

  9. Local models of stellar convection III: The Strouhal number

    CERN Document Server

    Käpylä, P J; Ossendrijver, M; Tuominen, I

    2004-01-01

    (Abbreviated) We determine the Strouhal number (St), a nondimensional measure of the correlation time, from numerical models of convection. The Strouhal number arises in the mean-field theories of angular momentum transport and dynamos, where its value determines the validity of certain widely used approximations, such as the first order smoothing (FOSA). More specifically, the relevant transport coefficients can be calculated by means of a cumulative series expansion if St < 1 (e.g. Knobloch 1978). We use two independent methods to estimate St. Firstly, we apply the minimal tau-approximation (MTA) in the equation of the time derivative of the Reynolds stress. In this approach the time derivative is essentially replaced by a term containing a relaxation time which can be interpreted as the correlation time of the turbulence. In this approach, the turnover time is estimated simply from the energy carrying scale of the convection and a typical velocity. In the second approach, we determine the correlation an...

  10. Using energetic models to investigate the survival and reproduction of beaked whales (family Ziphiidae.

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    Leslie F New

    Full Text Available Mass stranding of several species of beaked whales (family Ziphiidae associated with exposure to anthropogenic sounds has raised concern for the conservation of these species. However, little is known about the species' life histories, prey or habitat requirements. Without this knowledge, it becomes difficult to assess the effects of anthropogenic sound, since there is no way to determine whether the disturbance is impacting the species' physical or environmental requirements. Here we take a bioenergetics approach to address this gap in our knowledge, as the elusive, deep-diving nature of beaked whales has made it hard to study these effects directly. We develop a model for Ziphiidae linking feeding energetics to the species' requirements for survival and reproduction, since these life history traits would be the most likely to be impacted by non-lethal disturbances. Our models suggest that beaked whale reproduction requires energy dense prey, and that poor resource availability would lead to an extension of the inter-calving interval. Further, given current information, it seems that some beaked whale species require relatively high quality habitat in order to meet their requirements for survival and reproduction. As a result, even a small non-lethal disturbance that results in displacement of whales from preferred habitats could potentially impact a population if a significant proportion of that population was affected. We explored the impact of varying ecological parameters and model assumptions on survival and reproduction, and find that calf and fetus survival appear more readily affected than the survival of adult females.

  11. Reproductive toxicity and gender differences induced by cadmium telluride quantum dots in an invertebrate model organism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Si-Qi; Xing, Rui; Zhou, Yan-Feng; Li, Kai-Le; Su, Yuan-Yuan; Qiu, Jian-Feng; Zhang, Yun-Hu; Zhang, Ke-Qin; He, Yao; Lu, Xiao-Ping; Xu, Shi-Qing

    2016-09-01

    Sexual glands are key sites affected by nanotoxicity, but there is no sensitive assay for measuring reproductive toxicity in animals. The aim of this study was to investigate the toxic effects of cadmium telluride quantum dots (CdTe-QDs) on gonads in a model organism, Bombyx mori. After dorsal vein injection of 0.32 nmol of CdTe-QDs per individual, the QDs passed through the outer membranes of gonads via the generation of ROS in the membranes of spermatocysts and ovarioles, as well as internal germ cells, thereby inducing early germ cell death or malformations via complex mechanisms related to apoptosis and autophagy through mitochondrial and lysosomal pathways. Histological observations of the gonads and quantitative analyses of germ cell development showed that the reproductive toxicity was characterized by obvious male sensitivity. Exposure to QDs in the early stage of males had severe adverse effects on the quantity and quality of sperm, which was the main reason for the occurrence of unfertilized eggs. Ala- or Gly-conjugated QDs could reduce the nanotoxicity of CdTe-QDs during germ cell development and fertilization of their offspring. The results demonstrate that males are preferable models for evaluating the reproductive toxicity of QDs in combined in vivo/in vitro investigations.

  12. Reproductive toxicity and gender differences induced by cadmium telluride quantum dots in an invertebrate model organism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Si-Qi; Xing, Rui; Zhou, Yan-Feng; Li, Kai-Le; Su, Yuan-Yuan; Qiu, Jian-Feng; Zhang, Yun-Hu; Zhang, Ke-Qin; He, Yao; Lu, Xiao-Ping; Xu, Shi-Qing

    2016-01-01

    Sexual glands are key sites affected by nanotoxicity, but there is no sensitive assay for measuring reproductive toxicity in animals. The aim of this study was to investigate the toxic effects of cadmium telluride quantum dots (CdTe-QDs) on gonads in a model organism, Bombyx mori. After dorsal vein injection of 0.32 nmol of CdTe-QDs per individual, the QDs passed through the outer membranes of gonads via the generation of ROS in the membranes of spermatocysts and ovarioles, as well as internal germ cells, thereby inducing early germ cell death or malformations via complex mechanisms related to apoptosis and autophagy through mitochondrial and lysosomal pathways. Histological observations of the gonads and quantitative analyses of germ cell development showed that the reproductive toxicity was characterized by obvious male sensitivity. Exposure to QDs in the early stage of males had severe adverse effects on the quantity and quality of sperm, which was the main reason for the occurrence of unfertilized eggs. Ala- or Gly-conjugated QDs could reduce the nanotoxicity of CdTe-QDs during germ cell development and fertilization of their offspring. The results demonstrate that males are preferable models for evaluating the reproductive toxicity of QDs in combined in vivo/in vitro investigations. PMID:27669995

  13. Developing Predictive Approaches to Characterize Adaptive Responses of the Reproductive Endocrine Axis to Aromatase Inhibition II: Computational Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    ABSTRACT Exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals can affect reproduction and development in both humans and wildlife. We developed a mechanistic mathematical model of the hypothalamic­ pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis in female fathead minnows to predic...

  14. Cost-effectiveness analysis comparing continuation of assisted reproductive technology with conversion to intrauterine insemination in patients with low follicle numbers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Bo; Mumford, Sunni; Royster, G Donald; Segars, James; Armstrong, Alicia Y

    2014-08-01

    To compare the cost effectiveness of proceeding with oocyte retrieval vs. converting to intrauterine insemination (IUI) in patients with ≤4 mature follicles during assisted reproductive technology (ART) cycles. Probabilistic decision analysis. The cost effectiveness of completing ART cycles in poor responders was compared to that for converting the cycles to IUI. Not applicable. Not applicable. Cost-effectiveness analysis. Cost effectiveness, which was defined as the average direct medical costs per ongoing pregnancy. In patients with 1-3 mature follicles, completing ART was more cost effective if the cost of a single ART cycle was between $10,000 and $25,000. For patients with 4 mature follicles, if an ART cycle costcost effective to continue with oocyte retrieval than to convert to IUI. In patients with ≤4 mature follicles following ovarian stimulation in ART cycles, it was on average more cost effective to proceed with oocyte retrieval rather than convert to IUI. However, important factors, such as age, prior ART failures, other fertility factors, and medications used in each individual case need to be considered before this analysis model can be adapted by individual practices. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. All rights reserved.

  15. F-statistics under alternation of sexual and asexual reproduction: a model and data from schistosomes (platyhelminth parasites).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prugnolle, Franck; Roze, Denis; Théron, André; DE Meeûs, Thierry

    2005-04-01

    Accurate inferences on population genetics data require a sound underlying theoretical null model. Nearly nothing is known about the gene dynamics of organisms with complex life cycles precluding any biological interpretation of population genetics parameters. In this article, we used an infinite island model to derive the expectations of those parameters for the life cycle of a dioecious organism obligatorily alternating sexual and asexual reproductions as it is the case for schistosomes (plathyhelminth parasites). This model allowed us to investigate the effects of the degree of mixing among individuals coming from different subpopulations at each new generation (represented in the model by the migration rates before and after clonal reproductions) and the variance in the reproductive success of individuals during the clonal phase. We also consider the effects of different migration rates and degrees of clonal reproductive skew between male and female individuals. Results show that the variance in the reproductive success of clones is very important in shaping the distribution of the genetic variability both within and among subpopulations. Thus, higher variance in the reproductive success of clones generates heterozygous excesses within subpopulations and also increases genetic differentiation between them. Migration occurring before and after asexual reproduction has different effects on the patterns of F(IS) and F(ST). When males and females display different degrees of reproductive skew or migration rates, we observe differences in their respective population genetic structure. While results of the model apply to any organism alternating sexual and clonal reproductions (e.g. all parasitic trematodes, many plants, and all aphididae), we finally confront some of these theoretical expectations to empirical data from Schistosoma mansoni infecting Rattus rattus in Guadeloupe.

  16. Genome-Wide Mapping of Structural Variations Reveals a Copy Number Variant That Determines Reproductive Morphology in Cucumber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhonghua; Mao, Linyong; Chen, Huiming; Bu, Fengjiao; Li, Guangcun; Sun, Jinjing; Li, Shuai; Sun, Honghe; Jiao, Chen; Blakely, Rachel; Pan, Junsong; Cai, Run; Luo, Ruibang; Van de Peer, Yves; Jacobsen, Evert; Fei, Zhangjun; Huang, Sanwen

    2015-06-01

    Structural variations (SVs) represent a major source of genetic diversity. However, the functional impact and formation mechanisms of SVs in plant genomes remain largely unexplored. Here, we report a nucleotide-resolution SV map of cucumber (Cucumis sativas) that comprises 26,788 SVs based on deep resequencing of 115 diverse accessions. The largest proportion of cucumber SVs was formed through nonhomologous end-joining rearrangements, and the occurrence of SVs is closely associated with regions of high nucleotide diversity. These SVs affect the coding regions of 1676 genes, some of which are associated with cucumber domestication. Based on the map, we discovered a copy number variation (CNV) involving four genes that defines the Female (F) locus and gives rise to gynoecious cucumber plants, which bear only female flowers and set fruit at almost every node. The CNV arose from a recent 30.2-kb duplication at a meiotically unstable region, likely via microhomology-mediated break-induced replication. The SV set provides a snapshot of structural variations in plants and will serve as an important resource for exploring genes underlying key traits and for facilitating practical breeding in cucumber.

  17. STUDY OF FACTORS AFFECTING TOTAL NUMBER OF LIVING CHILDREN AMONG MARRIED WOMEN OF REPRODUCTIVE AGE GROUP IN A SLUM AREA IN MUMBAI.

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    KG Makade

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Background:Marriages and having children is a universal phenomenon in India and in slum areas of cities there is a tendency to have more number of children in married women due to many interrelated causes. In the current study we have tried to explore some of the reasons for having more number of children in urban slum area. Objective: To study the effect of education,age at marriage of women and socioeconomic status of the family onnumber of children among married women of reproductive age group in a slum area of Mumbai. Materials and Methods: A cross sectional observational study was carried out in the field practice area of an Urban Health Training Centre of a teaching hospital in Mumbai. Results:A sample of 342 women was taken by random sampling. Questionnaire was administered in the local language.It was found that illiteracy, marriage before 18 years of age and low socioeconomic status,are significantly associated with more than 3living children.Out of these, socioeconomic status of the family had the greatest influence on bearing of the total number of children, followed by the age of women at marriage and then educational status of the women. Conclusion:Improvement in education, socioeconomic status and increasing the age at marriage can prove to be very effective for the control of population.

  18. Improving CASINO performance for models with large number of electrons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anton, L; Alfe, D; Hood, R Q; Tanqueray, D

    2009-05-13

    Quantum Monte Carlo calculations have at their core algorithms based on statistical ensembles of multidimensional random walkers which are straightforward to use on parallel computers. Nevertheless some computations have reached the limit of the memory resources for models with more than 1000 electrons because of the need to store a large amount of electronic orbitals related data. Besides that, for systems with large number of electrons, it is interesting to study if the evolution of one configuration of random walkers can be done faster in parallel. We present a comparative study of two ways to solve these problems: (1) distributed orbital data done with MPI or Unix inter-process communication tools, (2) second level parallelism for configuration computation.

  19. High Reynolds number magnetohydrodynamic turbulence using a Lagrangian model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, J Pietarila; Mininni, P D; Pouquet, A

    2011-07-01

    With the help of a model of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence tested previously, we explore high Reynolds number regimes up to equivalent resolutions of 6000(3) grid points in the absence of forcing and with no imposed uniform magnetic field. For the given initial condition chosen here, with equal kinetic and magnetic energy, the flow ends up being dominated by the magnetic field, and the dynamics leads to an isotropic Iroshnikov-Kraichnan energy spectrum. However, the locally anisotropic magnetic field fluctuations perpendicular to the local mean field follow a Kolmogorov law. We find that the ratio of the eddy turnover time to the Alfvén time increases with wave number, contrary to the so-called critical balance hypothesis. Residual energy and helicity spectra are also considered; the role played by the conservation of magnetic helicity is studied, and scaling laws are found for the magnetic helicity and residual helicity spectra. We put these results in the context of the dynamics of a globally isotropic MHD flow that is locally anisotropic because of the influence of the strong large-scale magnetic field, leading to a partial equilibration between kinetic and magnetic modes for the energy and the helicity.

  20. Modelling the number of olive groves in Spanish municipalities

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    María-Dolores Huete

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The univariate generalized Waring distribution (UGWD is presented as a new model to describe the goodness of fit, applicable in the context of agriculture. In this paper, it was used to model the number of olive groves recorded in Spain in the 8,091 municipalities recorded in the 2009 Agricultural Census, according to which the production of oil olives accounted for 94% of total output, while that of table olives represented 6% (with an average of 44.84 and 4.06 holdings per Spanish municipality, respectively. UGWD is suitable for fitting this type of discrete data, with strong left-sided asymmetry. This novel use of UGWD can provide the foundation for future research in agriculture, with the advantage over other discrete distributions that enables the analyst to split the variance. After defining the distribution, we analysed various methods for fitting the parameters associated with it, namely estimation by maximum likelihood, estimation by the method of moments and a variant of the latter, estimation by the method of frequencies and moments. For oil olives, the chi-square goodness of fit test gives p-values of 0.9992, 0.9967 and 0.9977, respectively. However, a poor fit was obtained for the table olive distribution. Finally, the variance was split, following Irwin, into three components related to random factors, external factors and internal differences. For the distribution of the number of olive grove holdings, this splitting showed that random and external factors only account about 0.22% and 0.05%. Therefore, internal differences within municipalities play an important role in determining total variability.

  1. Modelling the number of olive groves in Spanish municipalities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huete, M.D.; Marmolejo, J.A.

    2016-11-01

    The univariate generalized Waring distribution (UGWD) is presented as a new model to describe the goodness of fit, applicable in the context of agriculture. In this paper, it was used to model the number of olive groves recorded in Spain in the 8,091 municipalities recorded in the 2009 Agricultural Census, according to which the production of oil olives accounted for 94% of total output, while that of table olives represented 6% (with an average of 44.84 and 4.06 holdings per Spanish municipality, respectively). UGWD is suitable for fitting this type of discrete data, with strong left-sided asymmetry. This novel use of UGWD can provide the foundation for future research in agriculture, with the advantage over other discrete distributions that enables the analyst to split the variance. After defining the distribution, we analysed various methods for fitting the parameters associated with it, namely estimation by maximum likelihood, estimation by the method of moments and a variant of the latter, estimation by the method of frequencies and moments. For oil olives, the chi-square goodness of fit test gives p-values of 0.9992, 0.9967 and 0.9977, respectively. However, a poor fit was obtained for the table olive distribution. Finally, the variance was split, following Irwin, into three components related to random factors, external factors and internal differences. For the distribution of the number of olive grove holdings, this splitting showed that random and external factors only account about 0.22% and 0.05%. Therefore, internal differences within municipalities play an important role in determining total variability. (Author)

  2. A model of myxomatosis based on hormonal control of rabbit-flea reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonelli, P L; Seymour, R M

    1988-01-01

    A two-dimensional first-order nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations with constant coefficients is constructed to model the rabbit/flea dynamics of the European rabbit viral disease known as myxomatosis. It is proved that infected fleas induce stable oscillations of small amplitude for a range of coefficient values when the Rothschild coupling coefficient r, which models biochemical control of flea reproduction by the rabbit, attains a critical (Hopf) value rO. These oscillations may lead to rapid local extinction of rabbits depending on the virulence gamma 2 of myxoma. The coefficient gamma 1 = r gamma 2 measures the effect on the fleas. Since the four determining coefficients may change over evolutionary time-scales, the mathematical results together with a natural selection argument proves that virulence gamma 2 attenuates. This has been observed both in Australia and in Great Britain. However, the rabbit flea Spilopsyllus cuniculi is not an effective vector for myxoma in Australia, but is the principal vector in Britain, as verified by R. Muirhead-Thomson at the suggestion of M. Rothschild. This preliminary model assumes density-independent rabbit reproductivity pR, but the qualitative results hold for a wider class of density-dependent models. Yet, the former condition is basic for the technique of parameter reduction used to simplify statistical estimation of the more general density-dependent model.

  3. Major revision of sunspot number: implication for the ionosphere models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulyaeva, Tamara

    2016-07-01

    Recently on 1st July, 2015, a major revision of the historical sunspot number series has been carried out as discussed in [Clette et al., Revisiting the Sunspot Number. A 400-Year Perspective on the Solar Cycle, Space Science Reviews, 186, Issue 1-4, pp. 35-103, 2014). The revised SSN2.0 dataset is provided along with the former SSN1.0 data at http://sidc.oma.be/silso/. The SSN2.0 values exceed the former conventional SSN1.0 data so that new SSNs are greater in many cases than the solar radio flux F10.7 values which pose a problem of SSN2.0 implementation as a driver of the International Reference Ionosphere, IRI, its extension to plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, NeQuick model, Russian Standard Ionosphere, SMI. In particular, the monthly predictions of the F2 layer peak are based on input of the ITU-R (former CCIR) and URSI maps. The CCIR and URSI maps coefficients are available for each month of the year, and for two levels of solar activity: low (SSN = 0) and high (SSN = 100). SSN is the monthly smoothed sunspot number from the SSN1.0 data set used as an index of the level of solar activity. For every SSN different from 0 or 100 the critical frequency foF2 and the M3000F2 radio propagation factor used for the peak height hmF2 production may be evaluated by an interpolation. The ionospheric proxies of the solar activity IG12 index or Global Electron Content GEC12 index, driving the ionospheric models, are also calibrated with the former SSN1.0 data. The paper presents a solar proxy intended to calibrate SSN2.0 data set to fit F10.7 solar radio flux and/or SSN1.0 data series. This study is partly supported by TUBITAK EEEAG 115E915.

  4. A juvenile-adult population model: climate change, cannibalism, reproductive synchrony, and strong Allee effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veprauskas, Amy; Cushing, J M

    2017-03-01

    We study a discrete time, structured population dynamic model that is motivated by recent field observations concerning certain life history strategies of colonial-nesting gulls, specifically the glaucous-winged gull (Larus glaucescens). The model focuses on mechanisms hypothesized to play key roles in a population's response to degraded environment resources, namely, increased cannibalism and adjustments in reproductive timing. We explore the dynamic consequences of these mechanics using a juvenile-adult structure model. Mathematically, the model is unusual in that it involves a high co-dimension bifurcation at [Formula: see text] which, in turn, leads to a dynamic dichotomy between equilibrium states and synchronized oscillatory states. We give diagnostic criteria that determine which dynamic is stable. We also explore strong Allee effects caused by positive feedback mechanisms in the model and the possible consequence that a cannibalistic population can survive when a non-cannibalistic population cannot.

  5. Maternal effects on progeny size, number and body color in the desert locust, Schistocerca gregaria: Density- and reproductive cycle-dependent variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maeno, Koutaro; Tanaka, Seiji

    2008-06-01

    The effects of rearing density and maternal age on the progeny size, number and coloration of the desert locust, Schistocerca gregaria, were investigated. Isolated-reared females deposited smaller, but more eggs than crowd-reared females. The former produced smaller and more eggs with age, whereas the latter showed a tendency to produce larger and fewer eggs over time. A similar tendency was also observed with virgin females, indicating that mating or the presence of males was not important. The first egg pod produced by each mated crowd-reared female contained significantly smaller and more eggs than did the subsequent egg pods. The former often produced many green hatchlings (0-100%) characteristic of solitarious forms, whereas the egg pods deposited after the first pod produced predominantly black hatchlings typical of gregarious forms. Adults were highly sensitive to a shift in rearing density and quickly modified the quality and quantity of their progeny depending on the density encountered. The number of eggs per pod was influenced not only by the mother's rearing density but also by rearing density of the grandmother. The present results demonstrated that the characteristics of progeny are influenced not only by the crowding conditions experienced by the mother and grandmother but also by the mother's reproductive cycle.

  6. Increased mast cell numbers in a calcaneal tendon overuse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pingel, J; Wienecke, J; Kongsgaard, M; Behzad, H; Abraham, T; Langberg, H; Scott, A

    2013-12-01

    Tendinopathy is often discovered late because the initial development of tendon pathology is asymptomatic. The aim of this study was to examine the potential role of mast cell involvement in early tendinopathy using a high-intensity uphill running (HIUR) exercise model. Twenty-four male Wistar rats were divided in two groups: running group (n = 12); sedentary control group (n = 12). The running-group was exposed to the HIUR exercise protocol for 7 weeks. The calcaneal tendons of both hind limbs were dissected. The right tendon was used for histologic analysis using Bonar score, immunohistochemistry, and second harmonic generation microscopy (SHGM). The left tendon was used for quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) analysis. An increased tendon cell density in the runners were observed compared to the controls (P = 0.05). Further, the intensity of immunostaining of protein kinase B, P = 0.03; 2.75 ± 0.54 vs 1.17 ± 0.53, was increased in the runners. The Bonar score (P = 0.05), and the number of mast cells (P = 0.02) were significantly higher in the runners compared to the controls. Furthermore, SHGM showed focal collagen disorganization in the runners, and reduced collagen density (P = 0.03). IL-3 mRNA levels were correlated with mast cell number in sedentary animals. The qPCR analysis showed no significant differences between the groups in the other analyzed targets. The current study demonstrates that 7-week HIUR causes structural changes in the calcaneal tendon, and further that these changes are associated with an increased mast cell density.

  7. A Harmony Search Algorithm for the Reproduction of Experimental Data in the Social Force Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osama Moh'd Alia

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Crowd dynamics is a discipline dealing with the management and flow of crowds in congested places and circumstances. Pedestrian congestion is a pressing issue where crowd dynamics models can be applied. The reproduction of experimental data (velocity-density relation and specific flow rate is a major component for the validation and calibration of such models. In the social force model, researchers have proposed various techniques to adjust essential parameters governing the repulsive social force, which is an effort at reproducing such experimental data. Despite that and various other efforts, the optimal reproduction of the real life data is unachievable. In this paper, a harmony search-based technique called HS-SFM is proposed to overcome the difficulties of the calibration process for SFM, where the fundamental diagram of velocity-density relation and the specific flow rate are reproduced in conformance with the related empirical data. The improvisation process of HS is modified by incorporating the global best particle concept from particle swarm optimization (PSO to increase the convergence rate and overcome the high computational demands of HS-SFM. Simulation results have shown HS-FSM’s ability to produce near optimal SFM parameter values, which makes it possible for SFM to almost reproduce the related empirical data.

  8. Effects of temperature on development, survival and reproduction of insects: experimental design, data analysis and modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Régnière, Jacques; Powell, James; Bentz, Barbara; Nealis, Vincent

    2012-05-01

    The developmental response of insects to temperature is important in understanding the ecology of insect life histories. Temperature-dependent phenology models permit examination of the impacts of temperature on the geographical distributions, population dynamics and management of insects. The measurement of insect developmental, survival and reproductive responses to temperature poses practical challenges because of their modality, variability among individuals and high mortality near the lower and upper threshold temperatures. We address this challenge with an integrated approach to the design of experiments and analysis of data based on maximum likelihood. This approach expands, simplifies and unifies the analysis of laboratory data parameterizing the thermal responses of insects in particular and poikilotherms in general. This approach allows the use of censored observations (records of surviving individuals that have not completed development after a certain time) and accommodates observations from temperature transfer treatments in which individuals pass only a portion of their development at an extreme (near-threshold) temperature and are then placed in optimal conditions to complete their development with a higher rate of survival. Results obtained from this approach are directly applicable to individual-based modeling of insect development, survival and reproduction with respect to temperature. This approach makes possible the development of process-based phenology models that are based on optimal use of available information, and will aid in the development of powerful tools for analyzing eruptive insect population behavior and response to changing climatic conditions.

  9. The role of prolactin in fish reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittington, Camilla M; Wilson, Anthony B

    2013-09-15

    Prolactin (PRL) has one of the broadest ranges of functions of any vertebrate hormone, and plays a critical role in regulating aspects of reproduction in widely divergent lineages. However, while PRL structure, mode of action and functions have been well-characterised in mammals, studies of other vertebrate lineages remain incomplete. As the most diverse group of vertebrates, fish offer a particularly valuable model system for the study of the evolution of reproductive endocrine function. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the role of prolactin in fish reproduction, which extends to migration, reproductive development and cycling, brood care behaviour, pregnancy, and nutrient provisioning to young. We also highlight significant gaps in knowledge and advocate a specific bidirectional research methodology including both observational and manipulative experiments. Focusing research efforts towards the thorough characterisation of a restricted number of reproductively diverse fish models will help to provide the foundation necessary for a more explicitly evolutionary analysis of PRL function.

  10. Dynamos at extreme magnetic Prandtl numbers: insights from shell models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Mahendra K.; Kumar, Rohit

    2016-12-01

    We present an MHD shell model suitable for computation of various energy fluxes of magnetohydrodynamic turbulence for very small and very large magnetic Prandtl numbers $\\mathrm{Pm}$; such computations are inaccessible to direct numerical simulations. For small $\\mathrm{Pm}$, we observe that both kinetic and magnetic energy spectra scale as $k^{-5/3}$ in the inertial range, but the dissipative magnetic energy scales as $k^{-11/3}\\exp(-k/k_\\eta)$. Here, the kinetic energy at large length scale feeds the large-scale magnetic field that cascades to small-scale magnetic field, which gets dissipated by Joule heating. The large-$\\mathrm{Pm}$ dynamo has a similar behaviour except that the dissipative kinetic energy scales as $k^{-13/3}$. For this case, the large-scale velocity field transfers energy to the large-scale magnetic field, which gets transferred to small-scale velocity and magnetic fields; the energy of the small-scale magnetic field also gets transferred to the small-scale velocity field, and the energy thus accumulated is dissipated by the viscous force.

  11. Characterization of reproductive, metabolic, and endocrine features of polycystic ovary syndrome in female hyperandrogenic mouse models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, A S L; Middleton, L J; Jimenez, M; Desai, R; McMahon, A C; Allan, C M; Handelsman, D J; Walters, K A

    2014-08-01

    Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) affects 5-10% of women of reproductive age, causing a range of reproductive, metabolic and endocrine defects including anovulation, infertility, hyperandrogenism, obesity, hyperinsulinism, and an increased risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Hyperandrogenism is the most consistent feature of PCOS, but its etiology remains unknown, and ethical and logistic constraints limit definitive experimentation in humans to determine mechanisms involved. In this study, we provide the first comprehensive characterization of reproductive, endocrine, and metabolic PCOS traits in 4 distinct murine models of hyperandrogenism, comprising prenatal dihydrotestosterone (DHT, potent nonaromatizable androgen) treatment during days 16-18 of gestation, or long-term treatment (90 days from 21 days of age) with DHT, dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), or letrozole (aromatase inhibitor). Prenatal DHT-treated mature mice exhibited irregular estrous cycles, oligo-ovulation, reduced preantral follicle health, hepatic steatosis, and adipocyte hypertrophy, but lacked overall changes in body-fat composition. Long-term DHT treatment induced polycystic ovaries displaying unhealthy antral follicles (degenerate oocyte and/or > 10% pyknotic granulosa cells), as well as anovulation and acyclicity in mature (16-week-old) females. Long-term DHT also increased body and fat pad weights and induced adipocyte hypertrophy and hypercholesterolemia. Long-term letrozole-treated mice exhibited absent or irregular cycles, oligo-ovulation, polycystic ovaries containing hemorrhagic cysts atypical of PCOS, and displayed no metabolic features of PCOS. Long-term dehydroepiandrosterone treatment produced no PCOS features in mature mice. Our findings reveal that long-term DHT treatment replicated a breadth of ovarian, endocrine, and metabolic features of human PCOS and provides the best mouse model for experimental studies of PCOS pathogenesis.

  12. Energy-based modeling as a basis for the analysis of reproductive data with the midge (Chironomus riparius).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Virginie; Péry, Alexandre R R; Mons, Raphaël; Garric, Jeanne

    2004-01-01

    We propose a biologically based approach to analyze reproductive data for the midge (Chironomus riparius). We showed in a previous study that its larval development can be divided in two distinct phases regarding the use of energy: The somatic growth period and the gametic growth period. We hypothesize here the gametic period to be a crucial period for the energetic investment for reproduction. To test this, we performed several assays with different feeding programs. Our results confirmed that energetic investment for reproduction mainly occurs during the gametic growth period. We could then propose energy-based models to analyze reproductive data. We assumed the effects to result from a perturbation in the use of energy. Two models corresponding to different physiological modes of actions--decreased efficiency of feeding (i.e., feeding decrease model) or increased cost of egg production (i.e., egg-cost increase model)--were built and used for the analysis of data obtained after an exposure to an artificially copper-spiked sediment. During this experiment, different exposure patterns were performed to investigate whether effects on reproduction resulted mainly from an exposure that occurs during the gametic growth period or from an exposure that occurs during the somatic growth period. These exposure patterns led to similar effects on reproduction, which suggests that the toxicant-induced stress persists during the whole life cycle, even in case of exposure occurring only during part of it. Both the feeding decrease model and egg-cost increase model were able to describe the data. We showed that addition of copper in the sediment, even in low quantity (<6.5 mg/kg), might affect reproduction at the individual level. If no-effect concentrations were derived from these results, this may lead to an overprotective value. A relevant no-effect concentration could be derived from further investigations at the population level.

  13. ModelE2-TOMAS development and evaluation using aerosol optical depths, mass and number concentrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. H. Lee

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional microphysics model (TOMAS has been integrated into the state-of-the-art general circulation model, GISS ModelE2. TOMAS has the flexibility to select a size resolution as well as the lower size cutoff. A computationally efficient version of TOMAS is used here, which has 15 size bins covering 3 nm to 10 μm aerosol dry diameter. For each bin, it simulates the total aerosol number concentration and mass concentrations of sulphate, pure elementary carbon (hydrophobic, mixed elemental carbon (hydrophilic, hydrophobic organic matter, hydrophilic organic matter, sea salt, mineral dust, ammonium, and aerosol-associated water. This paper provides a detailed description of the ModelE2-TOMAS model and evaluates the model against various observations including aerosol precursor gas concentrations, aerosol mass and number concentrations, and aerosol optical depths. Additionally, global budgets in ModelE2-TOMAS are compared with those of other global aerosol models, and the TOMAS model is compared to the default aerosol model in ModelE2, which is a bulk aerosol model. Overall, the ModelE2-TOMAS predictions are within the range of other global aerosol model predictions, and the model has a reasonable agreement with observations of sulphur species and other aerosol components as well as aerosol optical depth. However, ModelE2-TOMAS (as well as the bulk aerosol model cannot capture the observed vertical distribution of sulphur dioxide over the Pacific Ocean possibly due to overly strong convective transport. The TOMAS model successfully captures observed aerosol number concentrations and cloud condensation nuclei concentrations. Anthropogenic aerosol burdens in the bulk aerosol model running in the same host model as TOMAS (ModelE2 differ by a few percent to a factor of 2 regionally, mainly due to differences in aerosol processes including deposition, cloud processing, and emission parameterizations. Larger differences are found

  14. Naloxone affects reproductive system in a rat model with polycystic features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manizheh Karami

    2015-03-01

    Conclusion: Aspect of rat reproductive system may be linked with the cystic characteristic of ovary. This study involves opioid receptors in the naloxone efficacy on reproductive agents of rat with polycystic aspect.

  15. Numerical computations and mathematical modelling with infinite and infinitesimal numbers

    OpenAIRE

    Sergeyev, Yaroslav D.

    2012-01-01

    Traditional computers work with finite numbers. Situations where the usage of infinite or infinitesimal quantities is required are studied mainly theoretically. In this paper, a recently introduced computational methodology (that is not related to the non-standard analysis) is used to work with finite, infinite, and infinitesimal numbers \\textit{numerically}. This can be done on a new kind of a computer - the Infinity Computer - able to work with all these types of numbers. The new computatio...

  16. Neurokinin B and reproductive functions: "KNDy neuron" model in mammals and the emerging story in fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Guangfu; Lin, Chengyuan; He, Mulan; Wong, Anderson O L

    2014-11-01

    In mammals, neurokinin B (NKB), the gene product of the tachykinin family member TAC3, is known to be a key regulator for episodic release of luteinizing hormone (LH). Its regulatory actions are mediated by a subpopulation of kisspeptin neurons within the arcuate nucleus with co-expression of NKB and dynorphin A (commonly called the "KNDy neurons"). By forming an "autosynaptic feedback loop" within the hypothalamus, the KNDy neurons can modulate gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) pulsatility and subsequent LH release in the pituitary. NKB regulation of LH secretion has been recently demonstrated in zebrafish, suggesting that the reproductive functions of NKB may be conserved from fish to mammals. Interestingly, the TAC3 genes in fish not only encode the mature peptide of NKB but also a novel tachykinin-like peptide, namely NKB-related peptide (or neurokinin F). Recent studies in zebrafish also reveal that the neuroanatomy of TAC3/kisspeptin system within the fish brain is quite different from that of mammals. In this article, the current ideas of "KNDy neuron" model for GnRH regulation and steroid feedback, other reproductive functions of NKB including its local actions in the gonad and placenta, the revised model of tachykinin evolution from invertebrates to vertebrates, as well as the emerging story of the two TAC3 gene products in fish, NKB and NKB-related peptide, will be reviewed with stress on the areas with interesting questions for future investigations.

  17. Parker's sneak-guard model revisited: why do reproductively parasitic males heavily invest in testes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ota, Kazutaka; Kohda, Masanori; Hori, Michio; Sato, Tetsu

    2011-10-01

    Alternative reproductive tactics are widespread in males and may cause intraspecific differences in testes investment. Parker's sneak-guard model predicts that sneaker males, who mate under sperm competition risk, invest in testes relatively more than bourgeois conspecifics that have lower risk. Given that sneakers are much smaller than bourgeois males, sneakers may increase testes investment to overcome their limited sperm productivity because of their small body sizes. In this study, we examined the mechanism that mediates differential testes investment across tactics in the Lake Tanganyika cichlid fish Lamprologus callipterus. In the Rumonge population of Burundi, bourgeois males are small compared with those in other populations and have a body size close to sneaky dwarf males. Therefore, if differences in relative testis investment depend on sperm competition, the rank order of relative testis investment should be dwarf males > bourgeois males in Rumonge = bourgeois males in the other populations. If differences in relative testis investment depend on body size, the rank order of relative testes investment should be dwarf males > bourgeois males in Rumonge > bourgeois males in the other populations. Comparisons of relative testis investment among the three male groups supported the role of sperm competition, as predicted by the sneak-guard model. Nevertheless, the effects of absolute body size on testes investment should be considered to understand the mechanisms underlying intraspecific variation in testes investment caused by alternative reproductive tactics.

  18. A reproductive threat-based model of evolved sex differences in jealousy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagarin, Brad J; Becker, D Vaughn; Guadagno, Rosanna E; Wilkinson, Wayne W; Nicastle, Lionel D

    2012-08-10

    Although heterosexual women and men consistently demonstrate sex differences in jealousy, these differences disappear among lesbians and gay men as well as among heterosexual women and men contemplating same-sex infidelities (infidelities in which the partner and rival are the same sex). Synthesizing these past findings, the present paper offers a reproductive threat-based model of evolved sex differences in jealousy that predicts that the sexes will differ only when the jealous perceivers' reproductive outcomes are differentially at risk. This model is supported by data from a web-based study in which lesbians, gay men, bisexual women and men, and heterosexual women and men responded to a hypothetical infidelity scenario with the sex of the rival randomly determined. After reading the scenario, participants indicated which type of infidelity (sexual versus emotional) would cause greater distress. Consistent with predictions, heterosexual women and men showed a sex difference when contemplating opposite-sex infidelities but not when contemplating same-sex infidelities, whereas lesbians and gay men showed no sex difference regardless of whether the infidelity was opposite-sex or same-sex.

  19. A Reproductive Threat-Based Model of Evolved Sex Differences in Jealousy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brad J. Sagarin

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Although heterosexual women and men consistently demonstrate sex differences in jealousy, these differences disappear among lesbians and gay men as well as among heterosexual women and men contemplating same-sex infidelities (infidelities in which the partner and rival are the same sex. Synthesizing these past findings, the present paper offers a reproductive threat-based model of evolved sex differences in jealousy that predicts that the sexes will differ only when the jealous perceivers' reproductive outcomes are differentially at risk. This model is supported by data from a web-based study in which lesbians, gay men, bisexual women and men, and heterosexual women and men responded to a hypothetical infidelity scenario with the sex of the rival randomly determined. After reading the scenario, participants indicated which type of infidelity (sexual versus emotional would cause greater distress. Consistent with predictions, heterosexual women and men showed a sex difference when contemplating opposite-sex infidelities but not when contemplating same-sex infidelities, whereas lesbians and gay men showed no sex difference regardless of whether the infidelity was opposite-sex or same-sex.

  20. Animal models of physiologic markers of male reproduction: genetically defined infertile mice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chubb, C.

    1987-10-01

    The present report focuses on novel animal models of male infertility: genetically defined mice bearing single-gene mutations that induce infertility. The primary goal of the investigations was to identify the reproductive defects in these mutant mice. The phenotypic effects of the gene mutations were deciphered by comparing the mutant mice to their normal siblings. Initially testicular steroidogenesis and spermatogenesis were investigated. The physiologic markers for testicular steroidogenesis were steroid secretion by testes perifused in vitro, seminal vesicle weight, and Leydig cell histology. Spermatogenesis was evaluated by the enumeration of homogenization-resistant sperm/spermatids in testes and by morphometric analyses of germ cells in the seminiferous epithelium. If testicular function appeared normal, the authors investigated the sexual behavior of the mice. The parameters of male sexual behavior that were quantified included mount patency, mount frequency, intromission latency, thrusts per intromission, ejaculation latency, and ejaculation duration. Females of pairs breeding under normal circumstances were monitored for the presence of vaginal plugs and pregnancies. The patency of the ejaculatory process was determined by quantifying sperm in the female reproductive tract after sexual behavior tests. Sperm function was studied by quantitatively determining sperm motility during videomicroscopic observation. Also, the ability of epididymal sperm to function within the uterine environment was analyzed by determining sperm capacity to initiate pregnancy after artificial insemination. Together, the experimental results permitted the grouping of the gene mutations into three general categories. They propose that the same biological markers used in the reported studies can be implemented in the assessment of the impact that environmental toxins may have on male reproduction.

  1. Open intersection numbers, matrix models and MKP hierarchy

    CERN Document Server

    Alexandrov, A

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we claim that the generating function of the intersection numbers on the moduli spaces of Riemann surfaces with boundary, constructed recently by R. Pandharipande, J. Solomon and R. Tessler and extended by A. Buryak, is a tau-function of the KP integrable hierarchy. Moreover, it is given by a simple modification of the Kontsevich matrix integral so that the generating functions of open and closed intersection numbers are described by the MKP integrable hierarchy. Virasoro constraints for the open intersection numbers naturally follow from the matrix integral representation.

  2. Open intersection numbers, matrix models and MKP hierarchy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alexandrov, A. [Freiburg Institute for Advanced Studies (FRIAS), University of Freiburg,Albertstrasse 19, 79104 Freiburg (Germany); Mathematics Institute, University of Freiburg,Eckerstrasse 1, 79104 Freiburg (Germany); ITEP,Bolshaya Cheremushkinskaya 25, 117218 Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2015-03-09

    In this paper we conjecture that the generating function of the intersection numbers on the moduli spaces of Riemann surfaces with boundary, constructed recently by R. Pandharipande, J. Solomon and R. Tessler and extended by A. Buryak, is a tau-function of the KP integrable hierarchy. Moreover, it is given by a simple modification of the Kontsevich matrix integral so that the generating functions of open and closed intersection numbers are described by the MKP integrable hierarchy. Virasoro constraints for the open intersection numbers naturally follow from the matrix integral representation.

  3. Transmission of a heterologous clade C Symbiodinium in a model anemone infection system via asexual reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wan-Nan U; Hsiao, Ya-Ju; Mayfield, Anderson B; Young, Ryan; Hsu, Ling-Lan; Peng, Shao-En

    2016-01-01

    Anemones of genus Exaiptasia are used as model organisms for the study of cnidarian-dinoflagellate (genus Symbiodinium) endosymbiosis. However, while most reef-building corals harbor Symbiodinium of clade C, Exaiptasia spp. anemones mainly harbor clade B Symbiodinium (ITS2 type B1) populations. In this study, we reveal for the first time that bleached Exaiptasia pallida anemones can establish a symbiotic relationship with a clade C Symbiodinium (ITS2 type C1). We further found that anemones can transmit the exogenously supplied clade C Symbiodinium cells to their offspring by asexual reproduction (pedal laceration). In order to corroborate the establishment of stable symbiosis, we used microscopic techniques and genetic analyses to examine several generations of anemones, and the results of these endeavors confirmed the sustainability of the system. These findings provide a framework for understanding the differences in infection dynamics between homologous and heterologous dinoflagellate types using a model anemone infection system.

  4. Estimating the annual number of breeding attempts from breeding dates using mixture models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornulier, Thomas; Elston, David A; Arcese, Peter; Benton, Tim G; Douglas, David J T; Lambin, Xavier; Reid, Jane; Robinson, Robert A; Sutherland, William J

    2009-11-01

    Well-established statistical methods exist to estimate variation in a number of key demographic rates from field data, including life-history transition probabilities and reproductive success per attempt. However, our understanding of the processes underlying population change remains incomplete without knowing the number of reproductive attempts individuals make annually; this is a key demographic rate for which we have no satisfactory method of estimating. Using census data to estimate this parameter from requires disaggregating the overlying temporal distributions of first and subsequent breeding attempts. We describe a Bayesian mixture method to estimate the annual number of reproductive attempts from field data to provide a new tool for demographic inference. We validate our method using comprehensive data on individually-marked song sparrows Melospiza melodia, and then apply it to more typical nest record data collected over 45 years on yellowhammers Emberiza citrinella. We illustrate the utility of our method by testing, and rejecting, the hypothesis that declines in UK yellowhammer populations have occurred concurrently with declines in annual breeding frequency.

  5. Optimizing a Male Reproductive Aging Mouse Model by d-Galactose Injection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-Hou Liao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The d-galactose (d-gal-injected animal model, which is typically established by administering consecutive subcutaneous d-gal injections to animals for approximately six or eight weeks, has been frequently used for aging research. In addition, this animal model has been demonstrated to accelerate aging in the brain, kidneys, liver and blood cells. However, studies on aging in male reproductive organs that have used this animal model remain few. Therefore, the current study aimed to optimize a model of male reproductive aging by administering d-gal injections to male mice and to determine the possible mechanism expediting senescence processes during spermatogenesis. In this study, C57Bl/6 mice were randomized into five groups (each containing 8–10 mice according to the daily intraperitoneal injection of vehicle control or 100 or 200 mg/kg dosages of d-gal for a period of six or eight weeks. First, mice subjected to d-gal injections for six or eight weeks demonstrated considerably decreased superoxide dismutase activity in the serum and testis lysates compared to those in the control group. The lipid peroxidation in testis also increased in the d-gal-injected groups. Furthermore, the d-gal-injected groups exhibited a decreased ratio of testis weight/body weight and sperm count compared to the control group. The percentages of both immotile sperm and abnormal sperm increased considerably in the d-gal-injected groups compared to those of the control group. To determine the genes influenced by the d-gal injection during murine spermatogenesis, a c-DNA microarray was conducted to compare testicular RNA samples between the treated groups and the control group. The d-gal-injected groups exhibited RNA transcripts of nine spermatogenesis-related genes (Cycl2, Hk1, Pltp, Utp3, Cabyr, Zpbp2, Speer2, Csnka2ip and Katnb1 that were up- or down-regulated by at least two-fold compared to the control group. Several of these genes are critical for forming sperm

  6. Reproductive hacking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dustin Rubinstein, C; Wolfner, Mariana F

    2014-01-01

    Seminal proteins are critical for reproductive success in all animals that have been studied. Although seminal proteins have been identified in many taxa, and female reproductive responses to receipt of these proteins have been documented in several, little is understood about the mechanisms by which seminal proteins affect female reproductive physiology. To explore this topic, we investigated how a Drosophila seminal protein, ovulin, increases ovulation rate in mated females. Ovulation is a relatively simple physiological process, with known female regulators: previous studies have shown that ovulation rate is promoted by the neuromodulator octopamine (OA) in D. melanogaster and other insects. We found that ovulin stimulates ovulation by increasing OA signaling in the female. This finding supports a model in which a male seminal protein acts through “hacking” a well-conserved, regulatory system females use to adjust reproductive output, rather than acting downstream of female mechanisms of control or in parallel pathways altogether. We also discuss similarities between 2 forms of intersexual control of behavior through chemical communication: seminal proteins and pheromones. PMID:25483253

  7. An EPQ model with imperfect items using interval grey numbers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erdal Aydemir

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The classic economic production quantity (EPQ model has been widely used to determine the optimal production quantity. However, the analysis for finding an EPQ model has many weaknesses which lead many researchers and practitioners to make extensions in several aspects on the original EPQ model. The basic assumption of EPQ model is that 100% of manufactured products are non-defective that is not valid for many production processes generally. The purpose of this paper is to develop an EPQ model with grey demand rate and cost values with maximum backorder level allowed with the good quality items in units under an imperfect production process. The imperfect items are considered to be low quality items which are sold to a particular purchaser at a lower price and, the others are reworked and scrapped. A mathematical model is developed and then an industrial example is presented on the wooden chipboard production process for illustration of the proposed model.

  8. Prediction of the lifetime productive and reproductive performance of Holstein cows managed for different lactation durations, using a model of lifetime nutrient partitioning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gaillard, Charlotte; Martin, O; Blavy, P

    2016-01-01

    The GARUNS model is a lifetime performance model taking into account the changing physiological priorities of an animal during its life and through repeated reproduction cycles. This dynamic and stochastic model has been previously used to predict the productive and reproductive performance of va...

  9. Modeling of dynamically loaded hydrodynamic bearings at low Sommerfeld numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Kim

    . The challenging main bearing operation conditions in a wind turbine pose a demanding development task for the design of a hydrodynamic bearing. In general these conditions include operation at low Reynolds numbers with frequent start and stop at high loads as well as difficult operating conditions dictated...

  10. The evolution and consequences of sex-specific reproductive variance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullon, Charles; Reuter, Max; Lehmann, Laurent

    2014-01-01

    Natural selection favors alleles that increase the number of offspring produced by their carriers. But in a world that is inherently uncertain within generations, selection also favors alleles that reduce the variance in the number of offspring produced. If previous studies have established this principle, they have largely ignored fundamental aspects of sexual reproduction and therefore how selection on sex-specific reproductive variance operates. To study the evolution and consequences of sex-specific reproductive variance, we present a population-genetic model of phenotypic evolution in a dioecious population that incorporates previously neglected components of reproductive variance. First, we derive the probability of fixation for mutations that affect male and/or female reproductive phenotypes under sex-specific selection. We find that even in the simplest scenarios, the direction of selection is altered when reproductive variance is taken into account. In particular, previously unaccounted for covariances between the reproductive outputs of different individuals are expected to play a significant role in determining the direction of selection. Then, the probability of fixation is used to develop a stochastic model of joint male and female phenotypic evolution. We find that sex-specific reproductive variance can be responsible for changes in the course of long-term evolution. Finally, the model is applied to an example of parental-care evolution. Overall, our model allows for the evolutionary analysis of social traits in finite and dioecious populations, where interactions can occur within and between sexes under a realistic scenario of reproduction.

  11. Estimates of the Strouhal number from numerical models of convection

    CERN Document Server

    Käpylä, P J; Ossendrijver, M; Tuominen, I

    2004-01-01

    We determine the Strouhal number (hereafter St), which is essentially a nondimensional measure of the correlation time, from numerical calculations of convection. We use two independent methods to estimate St. Firstly, we apply the minimal tau-approximation (MTA) on the equation of the time derivative of the Reynolds stress. A relaxation time is obtained from which St can be estimated by normalising with a typical turnover time. Secondly, we calculate the correlation and turnover times separately, the former from the autocorrelation of velocity and the latter by following test particles embedded in the flow. We find that the Strouhal number is in general of the order of 0.1 to 1, i.e. rather large in comparison to the typical assumption in the mean-field theories that St << 1. However, there is a clear decreasing trend as function of the Rayleigh number and increasing rotation. Furthermore, for the present range of parameters the decrease of St does not show signs of saturation, indicating that in stell...

  12. The baryon number two system in the Chiral Soliton Model

    CERN Document Server

    Sarti, Valentina Mantovani; Vento, Vicente; Park, Byung-Yoon

    2012-01-01

    We study the interaction between two B = 1 states in a Chiral Soliton Model where baryons are described as non-topological solitons. By using the hedgehog solution for the B = 1 states we construct three possible B = 2 configurations to analyze the role of the relative orientation of the hedgehog quills in the dynamics. The strong dependence of the intersoliton interaction on these relative orientations reveals that studies of dense hadronic matter using this model should take into account their implications.

  13. Modelling transport and reproduction of the invasive comb jelly Mnemiopsis leidyi in the North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Molen, Johan

    2014-05-01

    Mnemiopsis leidyi is an invasive comb jelly fish species that originates from the Gulf of Mexico and the US east coast. It has high bloom potential, and can survive in a wide variety of environmental conditions. It was first introduced in Europe through ballast water discharges in the Black Sea, where it was associated with the anchovis stock collapse in the 1990's. From there, it has spread through the Mediterranean Sea. Since the mid 2000's it has been observed in ports and estuaries along the English Channel, the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. In the North Sea, M. leidyi blooms occur in the Scheldt estuaries, the Wadden Sea, and in ports and canals. In winter, M. Leidyi has been observed at sea in the German Bight. A particle tracking model was modified to include a simple reproduction mechanism, using food fields from the coupled hydrodynamics-ecosystem model GETM-ERSEM. The model was used to study the potential spreading and bloom potential of M. Leidyi in the southern North Sea under present and increased temperature conditions. Under present conditions, the model suggested that M. Leidyi can survive in the North Sea, and can be transported over distances of several hundreds of km, enabling connectivity between estuarine populations. It could not, however, bloom at open sea because of temperature constraints. These constraints were lifted for increased temperature scenarios, suggesting increased bloom potential under climate change conditions.

  14. Naloxone affects reproductive system in a rat model with polycystic features

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Manizheh Karami; Maryam Darban Fooladi

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To make interaction between morphine and naloxone in the rat model of PCOS, we evidenced the opioid receptors involvement in this efficacy. Methods:A total of 48 female animals (Wistar rats weighing 200-250 g) were kept diestrous before experimental procedure began. They were grouped in single L-arginine (50 mg/kg, i.p., once a day for 9 days), naloxone (0.4 mg/kg, i.p., once daily for 9 days), morphine (5 mg/kg, i.p., once a day for 9 days), and naloxone (0.4 mg/kg) pre-treated to L-arginine (50 mg/kg), morphine (5 mg/kg) pre-treated to L-arginine, morphine pre-treated to the collective naloxone-L-arginine. Control group solely received saline (1 mL/kg, once daily for 9 days). At the end of the treatment period all animals were surgically studied. The rats’ ovaries and uteri were examined both biometrically and pathologically. Results:The ovaries of rats treated with L-arginine showed polycystic characteristics and their uteri illustrated inflammation changes to the controls. The samples obtained from rats pre-treated with naloxone revealed a decrease in sign of inflammation compaired with L-arginine received speciments, the signs got worse in the presence of the morphine. Conclusion:Aspect of rat reproductive system may be linked with the cystic characteristic of ovary. This study involves opioid receptors in the naloxone efficacy on reproductive agents of rat with polycystic aspect.

  15. Increased mast cell numbers in a calcaneal tendon overuse model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pingel, Jessica; Wienecke, Jacob; Kongsgaard Madsen, Mads

    2013-01-01

    Tendinopathy is often discovered late because the initial development of tendon pathology is asymptomatic. The aim of this study was to examine the potential role of mast cell involvement in early tendinopathy using a high-intensity uphill running (HIUR) exercise model. Twenty-four male Wistar ra...

  16. Developing Predictive Approaches to Characterize Adaptive Responses of the Reproductive Endocrine Axis to Aromatase Inhibition: Computational Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals can affect reproduction and development in both humans and wildlife. We developed a mechanistic mathematical model of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis in female fathead minnows to predict dose-response and time-course (DRTC)...

  17. Reproduction and Growth in a Murine Model of Early Life-Onset Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eniko Nagy

    Full Text Available Studies in transgenic murine models have provided insight into the complexity underlying inflammatory bowel disease (IBD, a disease hypothesized to result from an injurious immune response against intestinal microbiota. We recently developed a mouse model of IBD that phenotypically and histologically resembles human childhood-onset ulcerative colitis (UC, using mice that are genetically modified to be deficient in the cytokines TNF and IL-10 ("T/I" mice. Here we report the effects of early life onset of colon inflammation on growth and reproductive performance of T/I mice. T/I dams with colitis often failed to get pregnant or had small litters with pups that failed to thrive. Production was optimized by breeding double homozygous mutant T/I males to females homozygous mutant for TNF deficiency and heterozygous for deficiency of IL-10 ("T/I-het" dams that were not susceptible to spontaneous colon inflammation. When born to healthy (T/I-het dams, T/I pups initially gained weight similarly to wild type (WT pups and to their non-colitis-susceptible T/I-het littermates. However, their growth curves diverged between 8 and 13 weeks, when most T/I mice had developed moderate to severe colitis. The observed growth failure in T/I mice occurred despite a significant increase in their food consumption and in the absence of protein loss in the stool. This was not due to TNF-induced anorexia or altered food consumption due to elevated leptin levels. Metabolic studies demonstrated increased consumption of oxygen and water and increased production of heat and CO2 in T/I mice compared to their T/I-het littermates, without differences in motor activity. Based on the clinical similarities of this early life onset model of IBD in T/I mice to human IBD, these results suggest that mechanisms previously hypothesized to explain growth failure in children with IBD require re-evaluation. The T/I mouse model may be useful for further investigation of such mechanisms and

  18. Emergence of a 'visual number sense' in hierarchical generative models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoianov, Ivilin; Zorzi, Marco

    2012-01-08

    Numerosity estimation is phylogenetically ancient and foundational to human mathematical learning, but its computational bases remain controversial. Here we show that visual numerosity emerges as a statistical property of images in 'deep networks' that learn a hierarchical generative model of the sensory input. Emergent numerosity detectors had response profiles resembling those of monkey parietal neurons and supported numerosity estimation with the same behavioral signature shown by humans and animals.

  19. Reproductive Health Education Model in Early Childhood through Education Film "Damar Wulan"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahrulianingdyah, Atiek

    2015-01-01

    Reproductive health education for early childhood it has been the time to teach, because the demand of the changing times and will affect the child's life when he/she is a teenager. During this time, the reproductive health education, which is in it there is sex education, considered taboo among some communities. They argue that the reproductive…

  20. Color Reproduction System Based on Color Appearance Model and Gamut Mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-07-01

    perception is usually different. Basically, the influence factors are device calibration and characterization, viewing condition, device gamut and human...Halftone Reproduction", TAGA Proceedings, 65-76 [7] R. W. G. Hunt, "The Reproduction of Color in Photography, Printing, & Televison ". FOUNTAIN PRESS, 4 ed

  1. Consistency and asymptotic normality of profile-kernel and backfitting estimators in semiparametric reproductive dispersion nonlinear models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TANG NianSheng; CHEN XueDong; WANG XueRen

    2009-01-01

    Semiparametric reproductive dispersion nonlinear model (SRDNM) is an extension of nonlinear reproductive dispersion models and semiparametric nonlinear regression models, and includes semiparametric nonlinear model and semiparametric generalized linear model as its special cases. Based on the local kernel estimate of nonparametric component, profile-kernel and backfitting estimators of parameters of interest are proposed in SRDNM, and theoretical comparison of both estimators is also investigated in this paper. Under some regularity conditions, strong consistency and asymptotic normality of two estimators are proved. It is shown that the backtitting method produces a larger asymptotic variance than that for the profile-kernel method. A simulation study and a real example are used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.

  2. Development of a microfluidics model for studying migration of sperm in the female reproductive tract

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tung, Chih-Kuan; Ardón, Florencia; Wu, Mingming; Suárez, Susan

    2013-03-01

    Infertility is a significant issue, both for humans and dairy cattle. In order for fertilization to happen, sperm must migrate through the female reproductive tract to reach the egg in the oviduct (fallopian tube). There is strong evidence that sperm interact with the female tract via both chemical and physical mechanisms. In this work, we focus on how the physical environment of the female tract influences the migration of bull sperm, which also serve as models for human sperm. In order for bull and human sperm to pass from the vagina into the uterus, they must swim through the cervical canal, which is lined by microchannels. Then, sperm must swim through the uterotubal junction, which also contains microchannels, in order to reach the oviduct. In both passageways, sperm must swim against a fluid flow, which would be less in the microchannels than in the central passageways. We have developed a microfluidic model for studying the sperm migration effects of the geometry of the cervix and uterotubal junction and the fluid flow within. Supported by NIH grant 1R01HD070038.

  3. Parabolic Anderson model with a finite number of moving catalysts

    CERN Document Server

    Castell, Fabienne; Maillard, Grégory

    2010-01-01

    We consider the parabolic Anderson model (PAM) which is given by the equation $\\partial u/\\partial t = \\kappa\\Delta u + \\xi u$ with $u\\colon\\, \\Z^d\\times [0,\\infty)\\to \\R$, where $\\kappa \\in [0,\\infty)$ is the diffusion constant, $\\Delta$ is the discrete Laplacian, and $\\xi\\colon\\,\\Z^d\\times [0,\\infty)\\to\\R$ is a space-time random environment that drives the equation. The solution of this equation describes the evolution of a ``reactant'' $u$ under the influence of a ``catalyst'' $\\xi$. In the present paper we focus on the case where $\\xi$ is a system of $n$ independent simple random walks each with step rate $2d\\rho$ and starting from the origin. We study the \\emph{annealed} Lyapunov exponents, i.e., the exponential growth rates of the successive moments of $u$ w.r.t.\\ $\\xi$ and show that these exponents, as a function of the diffusion constant $\\kappa$ and the rate constant $\\rho$, behave differently depending on the dimension $d$. In particular, we give a description of the intermittent behavior of the sys...

  4. Prediction model of interval grey number based on DGM(1,1)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bo Zeng; Sifeng Liu; Naiming Xie

    2010-01-01

    In grey system theory,the studies in the field of grey prediction model are focused on real number sequences,rather than grey number ones.Hereby,a prediction model based on interval grey number sequences is proposed.By mining the geometric features of interval grey number sequences on a two-dimensional surface,all the interval grey numbers are converted into real numbers by means of certain algorithm,and then the prediction model is established based on those real number sequences.The entire process avoids the algebraic operations of grey number,and the prediction problem of interval grey number is usefully solved.Ultimately,through an example's program simulation,the validity and practicability of this novel model are verified.

  5. Culture and religious beliefs in relation to reproductive health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arousell, Jonna; Carlbom, Aje

    2016-04-01

    An increasing number of contemporary research publications acknowledge the influence of religion and culture on sexual and reproductive behavior and health-care utilization. It is currently hypothesized that religious influences can partly explain disparities in sexual and reproductive health outcomes. In this paper, we will pay particular attention to Muslims in sexual and reproductive health care. This review reveals that knowledge about devout Muslims' own experience of sexual and reproductive health-care matters is limited, thus providing weak evidence for modeling of efficient practical guidelines for sexual and reproductive health care directed at Muslim patients. Successful outcomes in sexual and reproductive health of Muslims require both researchers and practitioners to acknowledge religious heterogeneity and variability, and individuals' possibilities to negotiate Islamic edicts. Failure to do so could lead to inadequate health-care provision and, in the worst case, to suboptimal encounters between migrants with Muslim background and the health-care providers in the receiving country.

  6. Reproduction and evaluation of a rat model of inhalation lung injury caused by black gunpowder smog

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-fan LIU

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective To reproduce and evaluate a rat model of inhalation lung injury caused by black gunpowder smog. Methods The smog composition was analyzed and a rat model of inhalation lung injury was reproduced. Forty two healthy male Wistar rats were randomly divided into normal control (NC group and 1h, 2h, 6h, 24h, 48h and 96h after inhalation group (n=6. The arterial blood gas, wet to dry weight ratio (W/D of lung, leukocyte count, and protein concentration in broncho-alveolar lavage fluid (BALF were determined. Macroscopic and microscopic changes in lung tissue were observed. Results The composition of black gunpowder smog was composed mainly of CO2 and CO, and their concentrations remained stable within 12 minutes. Smog inhalation caused a significant hypoxemia, the concentration of blood COHb reached a peak value 1h, and the W/D of lung reached peak value 2h after inhalation (P<0.05. The amount of leukocytes and content of protein in BALF increased significantly within 24h after inhalation (P<0.05. Histopathological observation showed diffuse hemorrhage, edema and inflammatory cell infiltration in lung tissue as manifestations of acute lung injury, and the injury did not recover at 96h after inhalation. Conclusion The rat model of inhalation lung injury can be reproduced using black gunpowder smog, and it has the advantages of its readiness for reproduction, reliability and stability, and it could be used for the experiment of inhalation injury in a battlefield environment.

  7. Evaluation of the vervet (Clorocebus aethiops) as a model for the assisted reproductive technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparman, Michelle L; Ramsey, Cathy M; Thomas, Carrie M; Mitalipov, Shoukhrat M; Fanton, John W; Maginnis, Gwen M; Stouffer, Richard L; Wolf, Don P

    2007-08-01

    The vervet monkey was evaluated as a primate model for use in assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs). Eight adult female vervets were hormonally monitored for their potential use as egg donors and those six females displaying regular menstrual cycles were subjected to controlled ovarian stimulation with recombinant human gonadotropins. Three animals failed to respond while laparoscopic follicular aspiration was performed on the other three females at 27-30 h post-human chorionic gonadotropin administration. A total of 62, 40, and 18 oocytes was recovered from these three animals of which 30, 20, and 4, respectively, matured to the metaphase II stage and were subsequently inseminated using intracytoplasmic sperm injection. An average of 40+/-15% (SEM) of the inseminated oocytes were fertilized based on pronucleus formation and timely cleavage. One embryo from each of the two stimulated females developed into expanded blastocysts. Two adult male vervets were assessed as sperm donors. Neither adjusted well to the restraint and collection procedure required for penile electroejaculation. Samples collected via rectal electroejaculation were very low in sperm motility and concentration; however, cauda epididymal aspirations from one male yielded an adequate concentration of motile sperm. These results emphasize the need to establish species-specific ovarian stimulation protocols and semen collection techniques if vervets are to be considered for basic and applied (ARTs) research on primate gametes or embryos.

  8. Curriculum reform for reproductive health | Olatunbosun | African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    African Journal of Reproductive Health ... A new model of reproductive health care delivery is unfolding, driven by ... A three-pronged approach based on reproductive health, problem-based learning and evidence-based medicine, has much ...

  9. Medawar redux - an overview on the use of farm animal models to elucidate principles of reproductive immunology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Peter J

    2010-10-01

    Farm animals have been important models for the development of reproductive immunology. Two of the major concepts underpinning reproductive immunology, the idea of the fetal allograft and progesterone's role in regulation of uterine immunity, were developed using the bovine as a model. This volume of the American Journal of Reproductive Immunology is composed of review articles that highlight the continued relevance of farm animals as models for research in mammalian biology. It is important that a diverse array of genotypes are used to elucidate biological principles relevant to mammalian biology and human health because the nature of mammalian evolution has resulted in a situation where the genome of the most commonly used animal model, the laboratory mouse, is less similar to the human than other species like the cow. Moreover, the evolution of placental function has been accompanied by formation of new genes during recent evolution so that orthologs do not exist in any but closely related species. Given the infrastructure needs to study farm animal species, optimal utilization of these animals as models for biomedical research will require significant increases in funding to reverse a historical erosion of resources devoted to animal agricultural research.

  10. Comparison of models for the genetic evaluation of reproductive traits with censored data in Nellore cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, D A; Rosa, G J M; Valente, B D; Carvalheiro, R; Albuquerque, L G

    2016-06-01

    In typical genetic evaluation, often some females have missing records due to reproductive failure and due to voluntary and involuntary culling before the breeding season. These partially or unobserved phenotypes are known as censored records and their inclusion into genetic evaluations might lead to better inferences and breeding value predictions. Then, the objective was to compare prediction ability of models in which the phenotypic expression of age at the first calving (AFC) and days to calving (DC) were considered to be censored and uncensored in a Nellore cattle population. Age at first calving and days to calving were analyzed as following: uncensored animals (LM); penalization of 21 d (PLM); censored records simulated from truncated normal distributions (CLM); threshold-linear model in which censored records were handled as missing (TLM) or coded as the upper AFC/DC value within contemporary group (PTLM); and Weibull frailty hazard model (WM). Pearson correlations (PC), the percentage of the 10% best bulls in common (pTOP10%), accuracy of estimated breeding values (), and a cross-validation scheme were performed. Heritability estimates for AFC were 0.18, 0.12, 0.12, 0.17, 0.14, and 0.07 for LM, PLM, CLM, TLM, PTLM, and WM, respectively. PC and pTOP10% were higher among linear models and smaller between these models and WM. The models provided similar r of sire breeding values. Heritability estimates for DC were 0.03, 0.08, 0.06, 0.02, 0.07, and 0.10 for LM, PLM, CLM, TLM, PTLM, and WM, respectively. Strongly associated predictions were observed in CLM, PLM, PTLM, and WM. The highest coincidence levels of sires in the TOP10% were between CLM, PLM, and PTLM. The r of sire breeding values obtained applying CLM, PLM, PTLM, and WM were similar and higher than those obtained with LM and TLM. In terms of prediction ability, WM, PLM, TLM, and PTLM showed similar prediction performance for AFC. On the other hand, CLM, PLM, PTLM, and WM showed the similar prediction

  11. Cardiometabolic and reproductive benefits of early dietary energy restriction and voluntary exercise in an obese PCOS-prone rodent model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diane, Abdoulaye; Kupreeva, Maria; Borthwick, Faye; Proctor, Spencer D; Pierce, W David; Vine, Donna F

    2015-09-01

    Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is one of the most common endocrine-metabolic disorders in women of reproductive age characterized by ovulatory dysfunction, hyperandrogenism and cardiometabolic risk. The overweight-obese PCOS phenotype appears to have exacerbated reproductive dysfunction and cardiometabolic risk. In overweight-obese adult women with PCOS, exercise and energy restricted diets have shown limited and inconsistent effects on both cardiometabolic indices and reproductive outcomes. We hypothesized that an early lifestyle intervention involving exercise and dietary energy restriction to prevent or reduce the propensity for adiposity would modulate reproductive indices and cardiometabolic risk in an obese PCOS-prone rodent model. Weanling obese PCOS-prone and Lean-Control JCR:LA-cp rodents were given a chow diet ad libitum or an energy-restricted diet combined with or without voluntary exercise (4  h/day) for 8 weeks. Dietary energy restriction and exercise lowered total body weight gain and body fat mass by 30% compared to free-fed sedentary or exercising obese PCOS-prone animals (Pexercise intensity compared to free-feeding plus exercise conditions. Energy restriction and exercise decreased fasting plasma triglycerides and apoB48 concentrations in obese PCOS-prone animals compared to free-fed and exercise or sedentary groups. The energy restriction and exercise combination in obese PCOS-prone animals significantly increased plasma sex-hormone binding globulin, hypothalamic cocaine-and amphetamine-regulated transcript (CART) and Kisspeptin mRNA expression to levels of the Lean-Control group, and this was further associated with improvements in estrous cyclicity. The combination of exercise and dietary energy restriction when initiated in early life exerts beneficial effects on cardiometabolic and reproductive indices in an obese PCOS-prone rodent model, and this may be associated with normalization of the hypothalamic neuropeptides, Kisspeptin and CART.

  12. A spreadsheet-based model demonstrating the nonuniform economic effects of varying reproductive performance in Ohio dairy herds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meadows, C; Rajala-Schultz, P J; Frazer, G S

    2005-03-01

    A spreadsheet-based model was developed to estimate the economic effect of varying reproductive performance in dairy herds. Scenarios were created to model an average cow with respect to production, herd lifetime, and reproductive events. Average milk yield per day of life as well as lifetime calf and replacement heifer production were examined. Additional inputs representing milk, feed, semen, calf, and salvage prices were used to calculate net cash flow for each day of herd life for the average cow in a scenario. Economic comparison of different scenarios was accomplished using an equivalent annual cash flow (annuity) methodology.Herd performance measures and prices representative of Ohio dairy herds were used to establish a baseline average cow that had a 160-d calving-to-conception interval [days open (DO)]. Alternative scenarios that differed from baseline in DO, annual culling rate, and feed and milk prices were created to characterize the effects of changes. Under scenario inputs representative of typical Ohio dairy herds, the model indicated that a lower annual culling rate (25%) was preferable to higher annual culling rates (34 or 45%). The model estimated maximum average milk yield per day of life to occur at 110 DO. At 34% annual culling rate, calves and replacement heifers produced per lifetime declined as DO increased; beyond 150 DO, the modeled cow produced less than 1 replacement heifer per lifetime. The model also estimated a loss of $1.37 per cow per year for a 1-d increase in DO beyond 160 d. At 20% higher feed and milk prices, the model estimated a loss of $1.52 per cow per year; at 20% lower feed and milk prices, the model estimated a loss of $1.23 per cow per year. Furthermore, the model suggested that the loss associated with a 1-d increase in DO changed as DO changed. Using baseline inputs, the model calculated losses for a 1-d increase of $0.44 per cow per year at 130 DO and $1.71 per cow per year at 190 DO. The nonuniform nature of the cost

  13. Reproductive fitness and dietary choice behavior of the genetic model organism Caenorhabditis elegans under semi-natural conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freyth, Katharina; Janowitz, Tim; Nunes, Frank; Voss, Melanie; Heinick, Alexander; Bertaux, Joanne; Scheu, Stefan; Paul, Rüdiger J

    2010-10-01

    Laboratory breeding conditions of the model organism C. elegans do not correspond with the conditions in its natural soil habitat. To assess the consequences of the differences in environmental conditions, the effects of air composition, medium and bacterial food on reproductive fitness and/or dietary-choice behavior of C. elegans were investigated. The reproductive fitness of C. elegans was maximal under oxygen deficiency and not influenced by a high fractional share of carbon dioxide. In media approximating natural soil structure, reproductive fitness was much lower than in standard laboratory media. In seminatural media, the reproductive fitness of C. elegans was low with the standard laboratory food bacterium E. coli (γ-Proteobacteria), but significantly higher with C. arvensicola (Bacteroidetes) and B. tropica (β-Proteobacteria) as food. Dietary-choice experiments in semi-natural media revealed a low preference of C. elegans for E. coli but significantly higher preferences for C. arvensicola and B. tropica (among other bacteria). Dietary-choice experiments under quasi-natural conditions, which were feasible by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) of bacteria, showed a high preference of C. elegans for Cytophaga-Flexibacter-Bacteroides, Firmicutes, and β-Proteobacteria, but a low preference for γ-Proteobacteria. The results show that data on C. elegans under standard laboratory conditions have to be carefully interpreted with respect to their biological significance.

  14. The Effect of Latitudinal Variation on Shrimp Reproductive Strategies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madelon van de Kerk

    Full Text Available Reproductive strategies comprise the timing and frequency of reproductive events and the number of offspring per reproductive event, depending on factors such as climate conditions. Therefore, species that exhibit plasticity in the allocation of reproductive effort can alter their behavior in response to climate change. Studying how the reproductive strategy of species varies along the latitudinal gradient can help us understand and predict how they will respond to climate change. We investigated the effects of the temporal allocation of reproductive effort on the population size of brown shrimp (Farfantepenaeus aztecus along a latitudinal gradient. Multiple shrimp species exhibit variation in their reproductive strategies, and given the economic importance of brown shrimp to the commercial fishing sector of the Unites States, changes in the timing of their reproduction could have significant economic and social consequences. We used a stage-based, density-dependent matrix population model tailored to the life history of brown shrimp. Shrimp growth rates and environmental carrying capacity were varied based on the seasonal climate conditions at different latitudes, and we estimated the population size at equilibrium. The length of the growing season increased with decreasing latitude and the reproductive strategy leading to the highest population size changed from one annual birth pulse with high reproductive output to continuous low-output reproduction. Hence, our model confirms the classical paradigm of continuous reproduction at low latitudes, with increased seasonality of the breeding period towards the poles. Our results also demonstrate the potential for variation in climate to affect the optimal reproductive strategy for achieving maximum population sizes. Certainly, understanding these dynamics may inform more comprehensive management strategies for commercially important species like brown shrimp.

  15. Assisted reproductive technologies in the common marmoset: an integral species for developing nonhuman primate models of human diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kropp, Jenna; Di Marzo, Andrea; Golos, Thaddeus

    2017-02-01

    Generation of nonhuman primate models of human disease conditions will foster the development of novel therapeutic strategies. Callithrix jacchus, or the common marmoset, is a New World, nonhuman primate species that exhibits great reproductive fitness in captivity with an ovarian cycle that can be easily managed with pharmacological agents. This characteristic, among others, provides an opportunity to employ assisted reproductive technologies to generate embryos that can be genetically manipulated to create a variety of nonhuman primate models for human disease. Here, we review methods to synchronize the marmoset ovarian cycle and stimulate oocyte donors, and compare various protocols for in vitro production of embryos. In light of advances in genomic editing, recent approaches used to generate transgenic or genetically edited embryos in the marmoset and also future perspective are reviewed.

  16. The use of multilevel models to evaluate sources of variation in reproductive performance in dairy cattle in Reunion Island

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dohoo, I.R.; Tillard, E.; Stryhn, H.;

    2001-01-01

    Sources of variation in measures of reproductive performance in dairy cattle were evaluated using data collected from 3207 lactations in 1570 cows in 50 herds from five geographic regions of Reunion Island (located off the cast coast of Madagascar). Three continuously distributed reproductive...... parameters (intervals from calving-to-conception, calving-to-first-service and first-service-to-conception) were considered, along with one Binomial outcome (first-service-conception risk). Multilevel models which take into account the hierarchical nature of the data were used to fit all models......-Cox-transformed data suggested that minor departures from the assumption of normality did not have a substantial effect on the variance estimates. For the Binomial dependent variable, five different estimation procedures (penalised quasi-likelihood, Markov-Chain Monte Carlo, parametric and non-parametric bootstrap...

  17. 非线性再生散度模型的诊断%SOME DIAGNOSTICS IN NONLINEAR REPRODUCTIVE DISPERSION MODELS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    This article discusses the problem of the detection of influential cases in nonlinear reproductive dispersion models (NRDM). A diagnostic based on case-deletion approach in estimating equations is proposed. The relationships between the generalized leverage defined by Wei et al. in 1998, statistical curvature, and the local influence of the response vector perturbations are investigated in NRDM. Two numerical examples are given to illustrate the results.

  18. Features of follicle-stimulating hormone-stimulated follicles in a sheep model: keys to elucidate embryo failure in assisted reproductive technique cycles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veiga-Lopez, Almudena; Dominguez, Veronica; Souza, Carlos J H; Garcia-Garcia, Rosa M; Ariznavarreta, Carmen; Tresguerres, Jesus A F; McNeilly, Alan S; Gonzalez-Bulnes, Antonio

    2008-05-01

    To evaluate the individual functionality of gonadotropin-stimulated preovulatory follicles, for understanding embryo failure in assisted reproductive technique cycles, in a sheep model. Observational, model study. Public research unit. Fifteen adult Manchega ewes. Synchronization of the estrous cycle with intravaginal progestagens and ovarian stimulation with FSH; evaluation of reproductive activity, plasma sampling, ovarian ultrasonography, and ovariectomies. Determination of estrus behavior, plasma and intrafollicular concentrations of E(2) and inhibin A, number and size of ovarian follicles, and developmental competence of oocytes. These results support the usefulness of serial measurements of plasma inhibin A for assessment of follicular growth during the FSH treatment, rather than of E(2) assays commonly used. Functionality of FSH-stimulated preovulatory follicles is clearly disturbed, as confirmed by a negative correlation between follicular size and intrafollicular concentrations of inhibin A and E(2) in preovulatory follicles after individual dissection; moreover, the ability of their oocytes to resume meiosis was diminished. Functionality of follicles in controlled ovarian stimulation (COS), and developmental competence of their oocytes, is disturbed by the high doses of gonadotropin supplied and finally determined by follicular sizes at starting FSH treatment.

  19. Mutation-selection balance and mixed mating with asexual reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marriage, Tara N; Orive, Maria E

    2012-09-07

    The effects of asexual reproduction on both the number of deleterious mutations per gamete and the mean fitness under mutation-selection balance are investigated. We use two simulation models, considering both finite and infinite populations. The two models incorporate asexual reproduction with varying levels of outcrossing and selfing, degrees of dominance and selection coefficients. The values for mean fitness and number of deleterious mutations per gamete are compared within and among finite and infinite populations to identify the effect of asexual reproduction on levels of load, and how asexual reproduction may interact with genetic drift (population size). Increasing asexual reproduction resulted in an increase in mean fitness and a decrease in the average number of deleterious mutations per gamete for both nearly recessive and additive alleles in both the infinite and finite simulations. Increased mean fitness with increasing asexuality is possibly due to two interacting forces: a greater opportunity for selection to act on heterozygous versus homozygous mutations and the shielding of a proportion of the population from meiotic mutations due to asexual reproduction. The results found here highlight the need to consider asexual reproduction along with mixed mating in models of genetic load and mutation-selection balance.

  20. Toward a Model Framework of Generalized Parallel Componential Processing of Multi-Symbol Numbers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, Stefan; Cornelsen, Sonja; Moeller, Korbinian; Nuerk, Hans-Christoph

    2015-01-01

    In this article, we propose and evaluate a new model framework of parallel componential multi-symbol number processing, generalizing the idea of parallel componential processing of multi-digit numbers to the case of negative numbers by considering the polarity signs similar to single digits. In a first step, we evaluated this account by defining…

  1. A Mouse Model for Studying Nutritional Programming: Effects of Early Life Exposure to Soy Isoflavones on Bone and Reproductive Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Wendy E.; Kaludjerovic, Jovana; Dinsdale, Elsa C.

    2016-01-01

    Over the past decade, our research group has characterized and used a mouse model to demonstrate that “nutritional programming” of bone development occurs when mice receive soy isoflavones (ISO) during the first days of life. Nutritional programming of bone development can be defined as the ability for diet during early life to set a trajectory for better or compromised bone health at adulthood. We have shown that CD-1 mice exposed to soy ISO during early neonatal life have higher bone mineral density (BMD) and greater trabecular inter-connectivity in long bones and lumbar spine at young adulthood. These skeletal sites also withstand greater forces before fracture. Because the chemical structure of ISO resembles that of 17-β-estradiol and can bind to estrogen receptors in reproductive tissues, it was prudent to expand analyses to include measures of reproductive health. This review highlights aspects of our studies in CD-1 mice to understand the early life programming effects of soy ISO on bone and reproductive health. Preclinical mouse models can provide useful data to help develop and guide the design of studies in human cohorts, which may, depending on findings and considerations of safety, lead to dietary interventions that optimize bone health. PMID:27187422

  2. A Mouse Model for Studying Nutritional Programming: Effects of Early Life Exposure to Soy Isoflavones on Bone and Reproductive Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Wendy E; Kaludjerovic, Jovana; Dinsdale, Elsa C

    2016-05-11

    Over the past decade, our research group has characterized and used a mouse model to demonstrate that "nutritional programming" of bone development occurs when mice receive soy isoflavones (ISO) during the first days of life. Nutritional programming of bone development can be defined as the ability for diet during early life to set a trajectory for better or compromised bone health at adulthood. We have shown that CD-1 mice exposed to soy ISO during early neonatal life have higher bone mineral density (BMD) and greater trabecular inter-connectivity in long bones and lumbar spine at young adulthood. These skeletal sites also withstand greater forces before fracture. Because the chemical structure of ISO resembles that of 17-β-estradiol and can bind to estrogen receptors in reproductive tissues, it was prudent to expand analyses to include measures of reproductive health. This review highlights aspects of our studies in CD-1 mice to understand the early life programming effects of soy ISO on bone and reproductive health. Preclinical mouse models can provide useful data to help develop and guide the design of studies in human cohorts, which may, depending on findings and considerations of safety, lead to dietary interventions that optimize bone health.

  3. Advantages of using the CRISPR/Cas9 system of genome editing to investigate male reproductive mechanisms using mouse models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samantha A. M. Young

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Gene disruption technology has long been beneficial for the study of male reproductive biology. However, because of the time and cost involved, this technology was not a viable method except in specialist laboratories. The advent of the CRISPR/Cas9 system of gene disruption has ushered in a new era of genetic investigation. Now, it is possible to generate gene-disrupted mouse models in very little time and at very little cost. This Highlight article discusses the application of this technology to study the genetics of male fertility and looks at some of the future uses of this system that could be used to reveal the essential and nonessential genetic components of male reproductive mechanisms.

  4. A European model for the number of end-of-life vehicles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller Andersen, Frits; Larsen, Helge V.; Skovgaard, M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes a model for the projection of the number of End-of-Life Vehicles (ELVs) and presents a baseline projection. Historical data on population, the number of cars per capita (car density), GDP per capita, and the vintage distribution of cars are combined to model ELVs. The lifetime...

  5. A Spatially-Explicit Modeling Approach to Examine the Interaction of Reproductive Traits and Landscape Characteristics on Arctic Shrub Expansion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naito, A. T.; Cairns, D. M.; Feldman, R. M.; Grant, W. E.

    2014-12-01

    Shrub expansion is one of the most recognized components of terrestrial Arctic change. While experimental work has provided valuable insights into its fine-scale drivers and implications, the contribution of shrub reproductive characteristics to their spatial patterns is poorly understood at broader scales. Building upon our previous work in river valleys in northern Alaska, we developed a C#-based spatially-explicit model that simulates historic landscape-scale shrub establishment between the 1970s and the late 2000s on a yearly time-step while accounting for parameters relating to different reproduction modes (clonal development with and without the "mass effect" and short-distance dispersal), as well as the presence and absence of the interaction of hydrologic constraints using the topographic wetness index. We examined these treatments on floodplains, valley slopes, and interfluves in the Ayiyak, Colville, and Kurupa River valleys. After simulating 30 landscape realizations using each parameter combination, we quantified the spatial characteristics (patch density, edge density, patch size variability, area-weighted shape index, area-weighted fractal dimension index, and mean distance between patches) of the resulting shrub patches on the simulation end date using FRAGSTATS. We used Principal Components Analysis to determine which treatments produced spatial characteristics most similar to those observed in the late 2000s. Based upon our results, we hypothesize that historic shrub expansion in northern Alaska has been driven in part by clonal reproduction with the "mass effect" or short-distance dispersal (sexual reproductive strategy, this model may facilitate predictions regarding future Arctic vegetation patterns.

  6. Developing a Learning Progression for Number Sense Based on the Rule Space Model in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Fu; Yan, Yue; Xin, Tao

    2017-01-01

    The current study focuses on developing the learning progression of number sense for primary school students, and it applies a cognitive diagnostic model, the rule space model, to data analysis. The rule space model analysis firstly extracted nine cognitive attributes and their hierarchy model from the analysis of previous research and the…

  7. Establishing Reproductive Health Education and Counseling in Military Services: The Turkish Model for Male Involvement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadettin Gungor

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Ministry of Health, Mother and Child Health and Family Planning General Directorate; Turkey Field Office of UNFPA, and Gulhane Military Medical Academy (GMMA of Turkish Armed Forces have been conducting a program to increase male concern and participation in sexual and reproductive health in a positive and supporting way. Specialist physicians and nurses from military hospitals were trained by Ministry of Health as trainers (October 2002- September 2003 by one-week courses on interactive training skills. Primary physicians, nurses and medical petty officers were trained as field trainers and counselors (March 2003-April 2004. Training rooms with standardized training material were established in all of the military garrisons. Soldiers were given the one-day participatory course. Trained medical staff also provided individual counseling and services. All training rooms were coded and connected to Reproductive Health Network established within the Intranet of Army. Reproductive Health activities were included in the regular supervision scheme of the army. Since April 2004 740.000 soldiers were given the one-day course. A total of 4000 military medical staff was educated as Trainers. A total of 580 training rooms were established. Twenty of Military Hospitals became a center of reproductive health training and service delivery. Since large-scale intervention is necessary to reach male population, the army seems to be the best possible venue in Turkey. [TAF Prev Med Bull. 2008; 7(2: 97-106

  8. Establishing Reproductive Health Education and Counseling in Military Services: The Turkish Model for Male Involvement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne Brigitte Albrectsen

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Ministry of Health, Mother and Child Health and Family Planning General Directorate; Turkey Field Office of UNFPA, and Gulhane Military Medical Academy (GMMA of Turkish Armed Forces have been conducting a program to increase male concern and participation in sexual and reproductive health in a positive and supporting way. Specialist physicians and nurses from military hospitals were trained by Ministry of Health as trainers (October 2002- September 2003 by one-week courses on interactive training skills. Primary physicians, nurses and medical petty officers were trained as field trainers and counselors (March 2003-April 2004. Training rooms with standardized training material were established in all of the military garrisons. Soldiers were given the one-day participatory course. Trained medical staff also provided individual counseling and services. All training rooms were coded and connected to Reproductive Health Network established within the Intranet of Army. Reproductive Health activities were included in the regular supervision scheme of the army. Since April 2004 740.000 soldiers were given the one-day course. A total of 4000 military medical staff was educated as Trainers. A total of 580 training rooms were established. Twenty of Military Hospitals became a center of reproductive health training and service delivery. Since large-scale intervention is necessary to reach male population, the army seems to be the best possible venue in Turkey. [TAF Prev Med Bull 2008; 7(2.000: 97-106

  9. Multiscale Systems Modeling of Male Reproductive Tract Defects: from Genes to Populations (SOT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The reproductive tract is a complex, integrated organ system with diverse embryology and unique sensitivity to prenatal environmental exposures that disrupt morphoregulatory processes and endocrine signaling. U.S. EPA’s in vitro high-throughput screening (HTS) database (ToxCastDB...

  10. Clinical prediction models in reproductive medicine: applications in untreated subfertility and in IVF treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.C. Hunault

    2006-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis deals with two prediction problems in reproductive medicine. The first is the prediction in infertile couples of the chance to conceive without treatment. The second deals with the prediction of the chance of conception in couples treated with in vitro fertilization (IVF).

  11. The African catfish, Clarias gariepinus, a model for the study of reproductive endocrinology in teleosts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oordt, P.G.W.J. van; Goos, H.J.Th.

    1987-01-01

    In their natural habitat African catfish, Clarias gariepinus, show a discontinuous reproductive cycle. This cycle follows changes in the gonadotropic activity of the pituitary. Gonadotropin release has been shown to be under dual hypothalamic control, i.e. a gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) and

  12. Pierre Bourdieu's Model of Cultural Reproduction: The Role of Teachers in Sustaining Traditional Power Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savage, Lawrence E.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine whether or not teachers would predict differing educational outcomes for students based on cultural and social capital measures--drawn from the work of Pierre Bourdieu and the field of cultural reproduction theory. To this end, surveys were distributed within a large urban district within North Carolina.…

  13. Challenges in simulation and modeling of heat transfer in low-Prandtl number fluids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groetzbach, G., E-mail: groetzbach@kit.edu [Karlsruher Inst. fuer Technologie (KIT), Inst. fuer Kern-und Energietechnik, Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2011-07-01

    Nuclear heat transfer applications with low-Prandtl number fluids are often in the transition range between conduction and convection dominated regimes. Most flows in reactors involve also anisotropic turbulent fluxes and strong buoyancy influences. The relevance and complexity of the required heat flux modelling is discussed depending on engineering issues. The needed acceptable models range from turbulent Prandtl number concepts, over algebraic flux models, to full second order models in RANS as well as in LES, all with special liquid metal extensions. Recommendations are deduced for the promising HYBRID models. The listed remaining challenges show the need for further development of models and instrumentation. (author)

  14. Reproductive and post-reproductive life history of wild-caught Drosophila melanogaster under laboratory conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klepsatel, P; Gáliková, M; De Maio, N; Ricci, S; Schlötterer, C; Flatt, T

    2013-07-01

    The life history of the fruit fly (Drosophila melanogaster) is well understood, but fitness components are rarely measured by following single individuals over their lifetime, thereby limiting insights into lifetime reproductive success, reproductive senescence and post-reproductive lifespan. Moreover, most studies have examined long-established laboratory strains rather than freshly caught individuals and may thus be confounded by adaptation to laboratory culture, inbreeding or mutation accumulation. Here, we have followed the life histories of individual females from three recently caught, non-laboratory-adapted wild populations of D. melanogaster. Populations varied in a number of life-history traits, including ovariole number, fecundity, hatchability and lifespan. To describe individual patterns of age-specific fecundity, we developed a new model that allowed us to distinguish four phases during a female's life: a phase of reproductive maturation, followed by a period of linear and then exponential decline in fecundity and, finally, a post-ovipository period. Individual females exhibited clear-cut fecundity peaks, which contrasts with previous analyses, and post-peak levels of fecundity declined independently of how long females lived. Notably, females had a pronounced post-reproductive lifespan, which on average made up 40% of total lifespan. Post-reproductive lifespan did not differ among populations and was not correlated with reproductive fitness components, supporting the hypothesis that this period is a highly variable, random 'add-on' at the end of reproductive life rather than a correlate of selection on reproductive fitness. Most life-history traits were positively correlated, a pattern that might be due to genotype by environment interactions when wild flies are brought into a novel laboratory environment but that is unlikely explained by inbreeding or positive mutational covariance caused by mutation accumulation.

  15. The effect of reproductive performance on the dairy cattle herd value assessed by integrating a daily dynamic programming model with a daily Markov chain model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalantari, A S; Cabrera, V E

    2012-10-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the effect of reproductive performance on dairy cattle herd value. Herd value was defined as the herd's average retention payoff (RPO). Individual cow RPO is the expected profit from keeping the cow compared with immediate replacement. First, a daily dynamic programming model was developed to calculate the RPO of all cow states in a herd. Second, a daily Markov chain model was applied to estimate the herd demographics. Finally, the herd value was calculated by aggregating the RPO of all cows in the herd. Cow states were described by 5 milk yield classes (76, 88, 100, 112, and 124% with respect to the average), 9 lactations, 750 d in milk, and 282 d in pregnancy. Five different reproductive programs were studied (RP1 to RP5). Reproductive program 1 used 100% timed artificial insemination (TAI; 42% conception rate for first TAI and 30% for second and later services) and the other programs combined TAI with estrus detection. The proportion of cows receiving artificial insemination after estrus detection ranged from 30 to 80%, and conception rate ranged from 25 to 35%. These 5 reproductive programs were categorized according to their 21-d pregnancy rate (21-d PR), which is an indication of the rate that eligible cows become pregnant every 21 d. The 21-d PR was 17% for RP1, 14% for RP2, 16% for RP3, 18% for RP4, and 20% for RP5. Results showed a positive relationship between 21-d PR and herd value. The most extreme herd value difference between 2 reproductive programs was $77/cow per yr for average milk yield (RP5 - RP2), $13/cow per yr for lowest milk yield (RP5 - RP1), and $160/cow per yr for highest milk yield (RP5 - RP2). Reproductive programs were ranked based on their calculated herd value. With the exception of the best reproductive program (RP5), all other programs showed some level of ranking change according to milk yield. The most dramatic ranking change was observed in RP1, which moved from being the worst ranked

  16. Keeping the noise down: common random numbers for disease simulation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stout, Natasha K; Goldie, Sue J

    2008-12-01

    Disease simulation models are used to conduct decision analyses of the comparative benefits and risks associated with preventive and treatment strategies. To address increasing model complexity and computational intensity, modelers use variance reduction techniques to reduce stochastic noise and improve computational efficiency. One technique, common random numbers, further allows modelers to conduct counterfactual-like analyses with direct computation of statistics at the individual level. This technique uses synchronized random numbers across model runs to induce correlation in model output thereby making differences easier to distinguish as well as simulating identical individuals across model runs. We provide a tutorial introduction and demonstrate the application of common random numbers in an individual-level simulation model of the epidemiology of breast cancer.

  17. Modeling how reproductive ecology can drive protein diversification and result in linkage disequilibrium between sperm and egg proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomaiuolo, Maurizio; Levitan, Don R

    2010-07-01

    Gamete-recognition proteins determine whether sperm and eggs are compatible at fertilization, and they often evolve rapidly. The source of selection driving the evolution of these proteins is still debated. It has been suggested that sexual conflict can result in proliferation of genetic variation and possibly linkage disequilibrium between sperm and egg proteins. Empirical evidence suggests that both male and female reproductive success can be predicted by their sperm ligand genotype, but why female success can be predicted by a protein expressed only in males is unknown. Here we use mathematical modeling to investigate the interaction between reproductive behavior and sperm availability on the evolution of sperm ligands and egg receptors. We consider haploid and diploid expression in gametes in two possible ecological scenarios, monogamous spawning and competitive spawning. Reproductive behavior plays an important role in determining possible outcomes resulting from sexual conflict. Sperm limitation selects for common genotypes regardless of mating behavior. Under conditions of sperm abundance, competitive spawning provides conditions for the persistence of allelic variation and gametic disequilibrium. With monogamous spawning, such conditions are more restrictive.

  18. The relationship between trading volumes, number of transactions, and stock volatility in GARCH models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya; Chen, Ting Ting

    2016-08-01

    We examine the relationship between trading volumes, number of transactions, and volatility using daily stock data of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Following the mixture of distributions hypothesis, we use trading volumes and the number of transactions as proxy for the rate of information arrivals affecting stock volatility. The impact of trading volumes or number of transactions on volatility is measured using the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. We find that the GARCH effects, that is, persistence of volatility, is not always removed by adding trading volumes or number of transactions, indicating that trading volumes and number of transactions do not adequately represent the rate of information arrivals.

  19. Estimate Total Number of the Earth Atmospheric Particle with Standard Atmosphere Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Chong-Yi

    2001-01-01

    The total number of atmospheric particle (AP) is an important datum for planetary science and geoscience.Estimating entire AP number is also a familiar question in general physics.With standard atmosphere model,considering the number difference of AP caused by rough and uneven in the earth surface below,the sum of dry clean atmosphere particle is 1.06962 × 1044.So the whole number of AP including water vapor is 1.0740 × 1044.The rough estimation for the total number of AP on other planets (or satellites) in condensed state is also discussed on the base of it.

  20. Optimization model using Markowitz model approach for reducing the number of dengue cases in Bandung

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yong, Benny; Chin, Liem

    2017-05-01

    Dengue fever is one of the most serious diseases and this disease can cause death. Currently, Indonesia is a country with the highest cases of dengue disease in Southeast Asia. Bandung is one of the cities in Indonesia that is vulnerable to dengue disease. The sub-districts in Bandung had different levels of relative risk of dengue disease. Dengue disease is transmitted to people by the bite of an Aedesaegypti mosquito that is infected with a dengue virus. Prevention of dengue disease is by controlling the vector mosquito. It can be done by various methods, one of the methods is fogging. The efforts made by the Health Department of Bandung through fogging had constraints in terms of limited funds. This problem causes Health Department selective in fogging, which is only done for certain locations. As a result, many sub-districts are not handled properly by the Health Department because of the unequal distribution of activities to prevent the spread of dengue disease. Thus, it needs the proper allocation of funds to each sub-district in Bandung for preventing dengue transmission optimally. In this research, the optimization model using Markowitz model approach will be applied to determine the allocation of funds should be given to each sub-district in Bandung. Some constraints will be added to this model and the numerical solution will be solved with generalized reduced gradient method using Solver software. The expected result of this research is the proportion of funds given to each sub-district in Bandung correspond to the level of risk of dengue disease in each sub-district in Bandung so that the number of dengue cases in this city can be reduced significantly.

  1. An Instructional Model for Teaching Proof Writing in the Number Theory Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schabel, Carmen

    2005-01-01

    I discuss an instructional model that I have used in my number theory classes. Facets of the model include using small group work and whole class discussion, having students generate examples and counterexamples, and giving students the opportunity to write proofs and make conjectures in class. The model is designed to actively engage students in…

  2. Strategies for using the sheep ovarian cortex as a model in reproductive medicine.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maïté Fransolet

    Full Text Available To evaluate and compare the distribution and density of primordial follicles within a whole sheep ovary and to gain insight into how to overcome the impact of natural follicular heterogeneity on the experimental results.Histological study.Academic research center.Five- to nine-month-old ewes.Freshly sampled whole sheep ovaries were collected and prepared for histological analysis.The follicular densities and distributions were determined for hematoxylin and eosin sections. A mathematical model was derived based on the follicle counts and Monte-Carlo simulations.Heterogeneous distributions and densities of primordial follicles were identified 1 for distinct areas of the same ovarian cortex, 2 between the ovaries of the same animal and 3 across different ewes. A mathematical model based on the analysis of 37,153 primordial follicles from 8 different ovaries facilitated the estimation of the number of cortical biopsies and sections that had to be analyzed to overcome such heterogeneity.The influence of physiological follicular heterogeneity on experimental and clinical results can be overcome when a definite number of cortical pieces and sections are taken into consideration.

  3. Strategies for using the sheep ovarian cortex as a model in reproductive medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransolet, Maïté; Labied, Soraya; Henry, Laurie; Masereel, Marie-Caroline; Rozet, Eric; Kirschvink, Nathalie; Nisolle, Michelle; Munaut, Carine

    2014-01-01

    To evaluate and compare the distribution and density of primordial follicles within a whole sheep ovary and to gain insight into how to overcome the impact of natural follicular heterogeneity on the experimental results. Histological study. Academic research center. Five- to nine-month-old ewes. Freshly sampled whole sheep ovaries were collected and prepared for histological analysis. The follicular densities and distributions were determined for hematoxylin and eosin sections. A mathematical model was derived based on the follicle counts and Monte-Carlo simulations. Heterogeneous distributions and densities of primordial follicles were identified 1) for distinct areas of the same ovarian cortex, 2) between the ovaries of the same animal and 3) across different ewes. A mathematical model based on the analysis of 37,153 primordial follicles from 8 different ovaries facilitated the estimation of the number of cortical biopsies and sections that had to be analyzed to overcome such heterogeneity. The influence of physiological follicular heterogeneity on experimental and clinical results can be overcome when a definite number of cortical pieces and sections are taken into consideration.

  4. Refined open intersection numbers and the Kontsevich-Penner matrix model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrov, Alexander; Buryak, Alexandr; Tessler, Ran J.

    2017-03-01

    A study of the intersection theory on the moduli space of Riemann surfaces with boundary was recently initiated in a work of R. Pandharipande, J.P. Solomon and the third author, where they introduced open intersection numbers in genus 0. Their construction was later generalized to all genera by J.P. Solomon and the third author. In this paper we consider a refinement of the open intersection numbers by distinguishing contributions from surfaces with different numbers of boundary components, and we calculate all these numbers. We then construct a matrix model for the generating series of the refined open intersection numbers and conjecture that it is equivalent to the Kontsevich-Penner matrix model. An evidence for the conjecture is presented. Another refinement of the open intersection numbers, which describes the distribution of the boundary marked points on the boundary components, is also discussed.

  5. Modelling the fluid mechanics of cilia and flagella in reproduction and development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montenegro-Johnson, Thomas D; Smith, Andrew A; Smith, David J; Loghin, Daniel; Blake, John R

    2012-10-01

    Cilia and flagella are actively bending slender organelles, performing functions such as motility, feeding and embryonic symmetry breaking. We review the mechanics of viscous-dominated microscale flow, including time-reversal symmetry, drag anisotropy of slender bodies, and wall effects. We focus on the fundamental force singularity, higher-order multipoles, and the method of images, providing physical insight and forming a basis for computational approaches. Two biological problems are then considered in more detail: 1) left-right symmetry breaking flow in the node, a microscopic structure in developing vertebrate embryos, and 2) motility of microswimmers through non-Newtonian fluids. Our model of the embryonic node reveals how particle transport associated with morphogenesis is modulated by the gradual emergence of cilium posterior tilt. Our model of swimming makes use of force distributions within a body-conforming finite-element framework, allowing the solution of nonlinear inertialess Carreau flow. We find that a three-sphere model swimmer and a model sperm are similarly affected by shear-thinning; in both cases swimming due to a prescribed beat is enhanced by shear-thinning, with optimal Deborah number around 0.8. The sperm exhibits an almost perfect linear relationship between velocity and the logarithm of the ratio of zero to infinite shear viscosity, with shear-thickening hindering cell progress.

  6. Effects of calcium propionate by different numbers of applications in first week postpartum of dairy cows on hypocalcemia, milk production and reproductive disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arda Kovanlıkaya

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to evaluate effects of calcium propionate on hypocalcemia, dry matter intake, body condition score, milk production and reproductive disorders in dairy cows. Twenty four multiparous Holstein cows were sorted by parity, body condition score (BCS in close-up period and season of calving and assigned to one of the three treatments. The cows in treatment 1 (T1 received two drenches at calving and 24h after calving. The cows in treatment 2 (T2 received three drenches at calving, 24h after calving and 7 days after calving. The cows in treatment 3 (T3 were the control. Each drench contained 143g of calcium as calcium propionate (0.68kg. Parameters studied were serum calcium, glucose and nonesterified fatty acid (NEFA concentrations, dry matter intake (DMI, BCS, milk production (MP, incidence of retained placenta (RP and metritis. Milk fever developed in 5 of 8 cows, in 3 of 8 cows and in 3 of 8 cows in T1, T2 and T3, respectively, at calving. There was no cow with milk fever in T1 and T2 at 4h after second drench (about 28h after calving but 3 of 8 cows in T3 had still milk fever at this time. The cows receiving two drenches recovered from milk fever in a shorter term as compared to the cows in T3. There were no differences among treatments for DMI, BCS, MP, RP, serum glucose and NEFA concentrations during the experimental period. There was no difference for metritis between T1 and T3 but incidence of metritis in T2 was significantly lower as compared to T3 (P<0.05. Two drenches of calcium propionate were beneficial in treating milk fever and three drenches of calcium propionate were considered to have had a preventive effect for metritis.

  7. A data-driven model for estimating industry average numbers of hospital security staff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vellani, Karim H; Emery, Robert J; Reingle Gonzalez, Jennifer M

    2015-01-01

    In this article the authors report the results of an expanded survey, financed by the International Healthcare Security and Safety Foundation (IHSSF), applied to the development of a model for determining the number of security officers required by a hospital.

  8. Model-based control of vortex shedding at low Reynolds numbers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illingworth, Simon J.

    2016-10-01

    Model-based feedback control of vortex shedding at low Reynolds numbers is considered. The feedback signal is provided by velocity measurements in the wake, and actuation is achieved using blowing and suction on the cylinder's surface. Using two-dimensional direct numerical simulations and reduced-order modelling techniques, linear models of the wake are formed at Reynolds numbers between 45 and 110. These models are used to design feedback controllers using {H}_∞ loop-shaping. Complete suppression of shedding is demonstrated up to Re = 110—both for a single-sensor arrangement and for a three-sensor arrangement. The robustness of the feedback controllers is also investigated by applying them over a range of off-design Reynolds numbers, and good robustness properties are seen. It is also observed that it becomes increasingly difficult to achieve acceptable control performance—measured in a suitable way—as Reynolds number increases.

  9. Using whole number models with Boolean variables for solving optimization problems in the oil industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smorodinskiy, B.I.

    1984-01-01

    A theoretical justification is given for a method for solving one of the common problems in whole number linear programming with Boolean variables. It is shown that a number of optimization problems in the oil industry can be reduced to this model.

  10. Semiclassical properties of eigenfunctions and occupation number distribution for a model of two interacting particles

    CERN Document Server

    Bénet, L; Seligman, T H; Suárez-Moreno, A

    1999-01-01

    Quantum-classical correspondence for the shape of eigenfunctions, local spectral density of states and occupation number distribution is studied in a chaotic model of two coupled quartic oscillators. In particular, it is shown that both classical quantities and quantum spectra determine global properties of occupation numbers and inverse participation ratio.

  11. Prediction and control of number of cells in microdroplets by stochastic modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Ceyhan, Elvan; Xu, Feng; Gürkan, Umut Atakan; Emre, Almet Emrehan; Turalı, Emine Sümeyra; El Assal, Rami; Açıkgenc, Ali; Wu, Chung-an Max; Demirci, Utkan

    2012-01-01

    Manipulation and encapsulation of cells in microdroplets has found many applications in various fields such as clinical diagnostics, pharmaceutical research, and regenerative medicine. The control over the number of cells in individual droplets is important especially for microfluidic and bioprinting applications. There is a growing need for modeling approaches that enable control over a number of cells within individual droplets. In this study, we developed statistical models based on negati...

  12. Classic models of population dynamics: assumptions about selfregulative mechanisms and numbers of interactions between individuals

    OpenAIRE

    L. V. Nedorezov

    2014-01-01

    Stochastic model of migrations of individuals within the limits of finite domain on a plane is considered. It is assumed that population size scale is homogeneous, and there doesn't exist an interval of optimal values of population size (Alley effect doesn't realize for population). For every fixed value of population size number of interactions between individuals is calculated (as average in space and time). Correspondence between several classic models and numbers of interactions between i...

  13. Prospectus: towards the development of high-fidelity models of wall turbulence at large Reynolds number

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klewicki, J. C.; Chini, G. P.; Gibson, J. F.

    2017-01-01

    Recent and on-going advances in mathematical methods and analysis techniques, coupled with the experimental and computational capacity to capture detailed flow structure at increasingly large Reynolds numbers, afford an unprecedented opportunity to develop realistic models of high Reynolds number turbulent wall-flow dynamics. A distinctive attribute of this new generation of models is their grounding in the Navier–Stokes equations. By adhering to this challenging constraint, high-fidelity models ultimately can be developed that not only predict flow properties at high Reynolds numbers, but that possess a mathematical structure that faithfully captures the underlying flow physics. These first-principles models are needed, for example, to reliably manipulate flow behaviours at extreme Reynolds numbers. This theme issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A provides a selection of contributions from the community of researchers who are working towards the development of such models. Broadly speaking, the research topics represented herein report on dynamical structure, mechanisms and transport; scale interactions and self-similarity; model reductions that restrict nonlinear interactions; and modern asymptotic theories. In this prospectus, the challenges associated with modelling turbulent wall-flows at large Reynolds numbers are briefly outlined, and the connections between the contributing papers are highlighted. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Toward the development of high-fidelity models of wall turbulence at large Reynolds number’. PMID:28167585

  14. What properties of numbers are needed to model accelerated observers in relativity?

    CERN Document Server

    Székely, Gergely

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the possible structures of numbers (as physical quantities) over which accelerated observers can be modeled in special relativity. We present a general axiomatic theory of accelerated observers which has a model over every real closed field. We also show that, if we would like to model certain accelerated observers, then not every real closed field is suitable, e.g., uniformly accelerated observers cannot be modeled over the field of real algebraic numbers. Consequently, the class of fields over which uniform acceleration can be investigated is not axiomatizable in the language of ordered fields.

  15. Generalizing Fisher's “reproductive value”: Nonlinear, homogeneous, biparental systems*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuelson, Paul A.

    1977-01-01

    Biparental demographic models violate linearity. However, in their early “dilute” stages before limited environment resources bring need for competitive selection, first-degree-homogeneous relations obtain. For them, a reproductive-value function of the initial coordinates is defined to recapitulate their contribution to the asymptotically dominating mode of exponential growth: now the generalized Fisher reproductive value of one sex is altered by relative numbers of the other sex. The new reproductive-value function is also derived for general systems of homogeneous-first-degree differential and difference equations, and is shown to grow from the start at the asymptotic growth rate. PMID:16592475

  16. Lepton Number Violation and Neutrino Masses in 3-3-1 Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard H. Benavides

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Lepton number violation and its relation to neutrino masses are investigated in several versions of the SU3c⊗SU3L⊗U1x model. Spontaneous and explicit violation and conservation of the lepton number are considered. In one of the models (the so-called economical one, the lepton number is spontaneously violated and it is found that the would be Majoron is not present because it is gauged away, providing in this way the longitudinal polarization component to a now massive gauge field.

  17. Lepton number violation and neutrino masses in 3-3-1 models

    CERN Document Server

    Benavides, Richard H; Fanchiotti, Huner; Canal, Carlos García; Ponce, William A

    2015-01-01

    Lepton number violation and its relation to neutrino masses is investigated in several versions of the $SU(3)_c\\otimes SU(3)_L\\otimes U(1)_x$ model. Spontaneous and explicit violation and conservation of the lepton number are considered. In one of the models (the so-called economical one), the lepton number is spontaneously violated and it is found that the would be Majoron is not present because it is gauged away, poviding in this way the longitudinal polarization component to a now massive gauge field.

  18. Low Mach and Peclet number limit for a model of stellar tachocline and upper radiative zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donatella Donatelli

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available We study a hydrodynamical model describing the motion of internal stellar layers based on compressible Navier-Stokes-Fourier-Poisson system. We suppose that the medium is electrically charged, we include energy exchanges through radiative transfer and we assume that the system is rotating. We analyze the singular limit of this system when the Mach number, the Alfven number, the Peclet number and the Froude number approache zero in a certain way and prove convergence to a 3D incompressible MHD system with a stationary linear transport equation for transport of radiation intensity. Finally, we show that the energy equation reduces to a steady equation for the temperature corrector.

  19. Prediction Model of Interval Grey Numbers with a Real Parameter and Its Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Zeng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Grey prediction models have become common methods which are widely employed to solve the problems with “small examples and poor information.” However, modeling objects of existing grey prediction models are limited to the homogenous data sequences which only contain the same data type. This paper studies the methodology of building prediction models of interval grey numbers that are grey heterogeneous data sequence, with a real parameter. Firstly, the position of the real parameter in an interval grey number sequence is discussed, and the real number is expanded into an interval grey number by adopting the method of grey generation. On this basis, a prediction model of interval grey number with a real parameter is deduced and built. Finally, this novel model is successfully applied to forecast the concentration of organic pollutant DDT in the atmosphere. The analysis and research results in this paper extend the object of grey prediction from homogenous data sequence to grey heterogeneous data sequence. Those research findings are of positive significance in terms of enriching and improving the theory system of grey prediction models.

  20. Prospectus: towards the development of high-fidelity models of wall turbulence at large Reynolds number

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klewicki, J. C.; Chini, G. P.; Gibson, J. F.

    2017-03-01

    Recent and on-going advances in mathematical methods and analysis techniques, coupled with the experimental and computational capacity to capture detailed flow structure at increasingly large Reynolds numbers, afford an unprecedented opportunity to develop realistic models of high Reynolds number turbulent wall-flow dynamics. A distinctive attribute of this new generation of models is their grounding in the Navier-Stokes equations. By adhering to this challenging constraint, high-fidelity models ultimately can be developed that not only predict flow properties at high Reynolds numbers, but that possess a mathematical structure that faithfully captures the underlying flow physics. These first-principles models are needed, for example, to reliably manipulate flow behaviours at extreme Reynolds numbers. This theme issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A provides a selection of contributions from the community of researchers who are working towards the development of such models. Broadly speaking, the research topics represented herein report on dynamical structure, mechanisms and transport; scale interactions and self-similarity; model reductions that restrict nonlinear interactions; and modern asymptotic theories. In this prospectus, the challenges associated with modelling turbulent wall-flows at large Reynolds numbers are briefly outlined, and the connections between the contributing papers are highlighted.

  1. Numerical modeling of the impact of regenerator housing on the determination of Nusselt numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kaspar Kirstein; Nellis, G.F.; Klein, S.A.

    2013-01-01

    to the regenerator fluid is developed. The model is applied to a range of cases and it is shown that at low Reynolds numbers (well below 100) and at Prandtl numbers appropriate to liquids (7 for water) the regenerator housing may influence the experimental determination of Nusselt numbers significantly. The impact......It is suggested that the housing of regenerators may have a significant impact when experimentally determining Nusselt numbers at low Reynolds and large Prandtl numbers. In this paper, a numerical model that takes the regenerator housing into account as a domain that is thermally coupled...... of the housing on the performance during cyclic steady-state regenerator operation is quantified by comparing the regenerator effectiveness for cases where the wall is ignored and with cases where it is included. It is shown that the effectiveness may be decreased by as much as 18% for the cases considered here...

  2. Effects of small spatial variation of the reproduction rate in a two species competition model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georg Hetzer

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Of concern is the effect of a small spatially inhomogeneous perturbation of the reproduction rate of the first species in a two-species Lotka-Volterra competition-diffusion problem with spatially homogeneous reaction terms. Apart from this perturbation and the diffusion rates, the two species are assumed to be identical. Our main result shows that the first species can always invade, whereas the second species can only invade under certain conditions which yield uniform persistence of both species. The proof relies on comparison techniques and properties of the principal eigenvalue of reaction-diffusion equations.

  3. Inertia-less convectively-driven dynamo models in the limit of low Rossby number

    CERN Document Server

    Calkins, Michael A; Tobias, Steven M

    2016-01-01

    Compositional convection is thought to be an important energy source for magnetic field generation within planetary interiors. The Prandtl number, $Pr$, characterizing compositional convection is significantly larger than unity, suggesting that the inertial force may not be important on the small scales of convection. We develop asymptotic dynamo models for the case of small Rossby number and large Prandtl number in which inertia is absent on the convective scale. The relevant diffusivity parameter for this limit is the compositional Roberts number, $q = D/\\eta$, which is the ratio of compositional and magnetic diffusivities. Dynamo models are developed for both order one $q$ and the more geophysically relevant low $q$ limit. For both cases the ratio of magnetic to kinetic energy densities, $M$, is asymptotically large and reflects the fact that Alfv\\'en waves have been filtered from the dynamics. Taken together with previous investigations of asymptotic dynamo models for $Pr=O(1)$, our results show that the ...

  4. Reproductive capacity of Chrysoperla externa (Hagen) (Neuroptera, Chrysopidae) in function of the number of individuals per unit of rearing; Potencial reprodutivo de Chrysoperla externa (Hagen) (Neuroptera,Chrysopidae) em funcao do numero de individuos por unidade de criacao

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pessoa, Luis Gustavo Amorim [Centro Universitario de Varzea Grande (UNIVAG), Varzea Grande, MT (Brazil). GPA de Ciencias Agrarias e Biologicas], e-mail: gugamorim@yahoo.com.br; Freitas, Sergio de [Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP), Jaboticabal, SP (Brazil). Fac. de Ciencias Agrarias e Veterinarias. Dept. de Fitossanidade], e-mail: serfre@fcav.unesp.br

    2008-09-15

    Reproductive capacity of Chrysoperla externa (Hagen) (Neuroptera, Chrysopidae) in function of the number of individuals per unit of rearing. This work was carried out to investigate the reproductive potential of Chrysoperla externa subjected to different densities per rearing unit. Adults of the F{sub 4} offspring were kept at 25 {+-} 1 deg C, RH 70 {+-} 10% and 12 h photo phase. It was used the following densities per rearing unit (10 cm of diameter by 23 cm of height, and volume of 1650 cm{sup 3}): 1 male: 3 female, 2 males: 6 females, 3 males: 9 females and 4 males: 12 females. It was evaluated the pre-oviposition period, the daily and total oviposition per female and per rearing unit, the percentage of viable and infertile eggs percentage and the exploitation index per female and per rearing unit. The density 4 males: 12 females presented better exploitation when compared to the other densities thus equalizing the low values obtained for the mean and total egg laying per female. (author)

  5. The 750 GeV LHC diphoton excess from a baryon number conserving string model

    CERN Document Server

    Kokorelis, Christos

    2016-01-01

    We propose an explanation of the LHC data excess resonance of 750 GeV in the diphoton distribution using D-brane models, with gauged baryon number, which accommodate the Standard Model together with vector like exotics. We identify the 750 GeV scalar as either the sneutrino (${\\tilde \

  6. A Percentile Regression Model for the Number of Errors in Group Conversation Tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liski, Erkki P.; Puntanen, Simo

    A statistical model is presented for analyzing the results of group conversation tests in English, developed in a Finnish university study from 1977 to 1981. The model is illustrated with the findings from the study. In this study, estimates of percentile curves for the number of errors are of greater interest than the mean regression line. It was…

  7. Daphnia as a model organism in limnology and aquatic biology: some aspects of its reproduction and development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Petrusek

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Invertebrates comprise the overwhelming majority of all animal species - around 95% of described species, not including substantial cryptic variation. As it is an extremely diverse and heterogeneous group, research on various invertebrate taxa often follows parallel trajectories, with little interaction among experts on different groups. To promote sharing of knowledge within as well as across taxa, the International Society of Invertebrate Reproduction and Development (ISIRD was established in 1975 in Calicut, India. Since that time, the ISIRD has organised international conferences at three-year intervals where various aspects of invertebrate biology are presented and discussed, naturally with the focus on reproduction and development. Traditionally, marine invertebrate groups have been well represented at all ISIRD congresses, but freshwater invertebrates have often been relatively overlooked at these meetings. The 12th ISIRD congress took place between August 16 and 20, 2010 in Prague, the Czech Republic. Several different Czech institutions collaborated on the organisation of this meeting. As aquatic invertebrate research has a long tradition in the country, we decided to include a section dedicated to popular model organisms in aquatic ecology and evolutionary biology, the "water fleas", cladocerans of the genus Daphnia. The section entitled "Daphnia and other cladocerans as model organisms" was open to any aspects of cladoceran biology directly or indirectly related to their reproduction or development. Unfortunately, the timing of the Prague congress completely overlapped the triennial congress of the International Society of Theoretical and Applied Limnology (SIL in Cape Town, South Africa. This large meeting in a very attractive setting attracted many cladocerologists from all over the world, including Europe. Therefore, the Daphnia section of the Prague ISIRD meeting remained moderate in size, attracting 13 contributions (eight talks

  8. Evidence for the 'good genes' model: association of MHC class II DRB alleles with ectoparasitism and reproductive state in the neotropical lesser bulldog bat, Noctilio albiventris.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Schad

    Full Text Available The adaptive immune system has a major impact on parasite resistance and life history strategies. Immunological defence is costly both in terms of immediate activation and long-term maintenance. The 'good genes' model predicts that males with genotypes that promote a good disease resistance have the ability to allocate more resources to reproductive effort which favours the transmission of good alleles into future generations. Our study shows a correlation between immune gene constitution (Major Histocompatibility Complex, MHC class II DRB, ectoparasite loads (ticks and bat flies and the reproductive state in a neotropical bat, Noctilio albiventris. Infestation rates with ectoparasites were linked to specific Noal-DRB alleles, differed among roosts, increased with body size and co-varied with reproductive state particularly in males. Non-reproductive adult males were more infested with ectoparasites than reproductively active males, and they had more often an allele (Noal-DRB*02 associated with a higher tick infestation than reproductively active males or subadults. We conclude that the individual immune gene constitution affects ectoparasite susceptibility, and contributes to fitness relevant trade-offs in male N. albiventris as suggested by the 'good genes' model.

  9. Evidence for the 'good genes' model: association of MHC class II DRB alleles with ectoparasitism and reproductive state in the neotropical lesser bulldog bat, Noctilio albiventris.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schad, Julia; Dechmann, Dina K N; Voigt, Christian C; Sommer, Simone

    2012-01-01

    The adaptive immune system has a major impact on parasite resistance and life history strategies. Immunological defence is costly both in terms of immediate activation and long-term maintenance. The 'good genes' model predicts that males with genotypes that promote a good disease resistance have the ability to allocate more resources to reproductive effort which favours the transmission of good alleles into future generations. Our study shows a correlation between immune gene constitution (Major Histocompatibility Complex, MHC class II DRB), ectoparasite loads (ticks and bat flies) and the reproductive state in a neotropical bat, Noctilio albiventris. Infestation rates with ectoparasites were linked to specific Noal-DRB alleles, differed among roosts, increased with body size and co-varied with reproductive state particularly in males. Non-reproductive adult males were more infested with ectoparasites than reproductively active males, and they had more often an allele (Noal-DRB*02) associated with a higher tick infestation than reproductively active males or subadults. We conclude that the individual immune gene constitution affects ectoparasite susceptibility, and contributes to fitness relevant trade-offs in male N. albiventris as suggested by the 'good genes' model.

  10. Experimental and modeling studies on number and size spectrum evolutions of aerosol particles within a chamber

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Zai; HUANG Zhen; WANG JiaSong

    2007-01-01

    A size-specific aerosol dynamic model is set up to predict the evolution of particle number concentration within a chamber. Particle aggregation is based on the theory of Brownian coagulation, and the model not only comprises particle loss due to coagulation, but also considers the formation of large particles by collision. To validate the model, three different groups of chamber experiments with SMPS (Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer) are conducted. The results indicate that the advantage of the model over the past simple size bin model is its provision of detailed information of size spectrum evolution,and the results can be used to analyze the variations of number concentration and CMD (Count Median Diameter). Furthermore, some aerosol dynamic mechanisms that cannot be measured by instrument can be analyzed by the model simulation, which is significant for better understanding the removal and control mechanisms of ultrafine particles.

  11. A heuristic approach to determine an appropriate number of topics in topic modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Weizhong; Chen, James J; Perkins, Roger; Liu, Zhichao; Ge, Weigong; Ding, Yijun; Zou, Wen

    2015-01-01

    Topic modelling is an active research field in machine learning. While mainly used to build models from unstructured textual data, it offers an effective means of data mining where samples represent documents, and different biological endpoints or omics data represent words. Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) is the most commonly used topic modelling method across a wide number of technical fields. However, model development can be arduous and tedious, and requires burdensome and systematic sensitivity studies in order to find the best set of model parameters. Often, time-consuming subjective evaluations are needed to compare models. Currently, research has yielded no easy way to choose the proper number of topics in a model beyond a major iterative approach. Based on analysis of variation of statistical perplexity during topic modelling, a heuristic approach is proposed in this study to estimate the most appropriate number of topics. Specifically, the rate of perplexity change (RPC) as a function of numbers of topics is proposed as a suitable selector. We test the stability and effectiveness of the proposed method for three markedly different types of grounded-truth datasets: Salmonella next generation sequencing, pharmacological side effects, and textual abstracts on computational biology and bioinformatics (TCBB) from PubMed. The proposed RPC-based method is demonstrated to choose the best number of topics in three numerical experiments of widely different data types, and for databases of very different sizes. The work required was markedly less arduous than if full systematic sensitivity studies had been carried out with number of topics as a parameter. We understand that additional investigation is needed to substantiate the method's theoretical basis, and to establish its generalizability in terms of dataset characteristics.

  12. A pollution fate and transport model application in a semi-arid region: Is some number better than no number?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özcan, Zeynep; Başkan, Oğuz; Düzgün, H Şebnem; Kentel, Elçin; Alp, Emre

    2017-10-01

    Fate and transport models are powerful tools that aid authorities in making unbiased decisions for developing sustainable management strategies. Application of pollution fate and transport models in semi-arid regions has been challenging because of unique hydrological characteristics and limited data availability. Significant temporal and spatial variability in rainfall events, complex interactions between soil, vegetation and topography, and limited water quality and hydrological data due to insufficient monitoring network make it a difficult task to develop reliable models in semi-arid regions. The performances of these models govern the final use of the outcomes such as policy implementation, screening, economical analysis, etc. In this study, a deterministic distributed fate and transport model, SWAT, is applied in Lake Mogan Watershed, a semi-arid region dominated by dry agricultural practices, to estimate nutrient loads and to develop the water budget of the watershed. To minimize the discrepancy due to limited availability of historical water quality data extensive efforts were placed in collecting site-specific data for model inputs such as soil properties, agricultural practice information and land use. Moreover, calibration parameter ranges suggested in the literature are utilized during calibration in order to obtain more realistic representation of Lake Mogan Watershed in the model. Model performance is evaluated using comparisons of the measured data with 95%CI for the simulated data and comparison of unit pollution load estimations with those provided in the literature for similar catchments, in addition to commonly used evaluation criteria such as Nash-Sutcliffe simulation efficiency, coefficient of determination and percent bias. These evaluations demonstrated that even though the model prediction power is not high according to the commonly used model performance criteria, the calibrated model may provide useful information in the comparison of the

  13. Positive Periodic Solutions of an Epidemic Model with Seasonality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gui-Quan Sun

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available An SEI autonomous model with logistic growth rate and its corresponding nonautonomous model are investigated. For the autonomous case, we give the attractive regions of equilibria and perform some numerical simulations. Basic demographic reproduction number Rd is obtained. Moreover, only the basic reproduction number R0 cannot ensure the existence of the positive equilibrium, which needs additional condition Rd>R1. For the nonautonomous case, by introducing the basic reproduction number defined by the spectral radius, we study the uniform persistence and extinction of the disease. The results show that for the periodic system the basic reproduction number is more accurate than the average reproduction number.

  14. Spherical collapse model and cluster number counts in power-law f(T) gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malekjani, M.; Basilakos, S.; Heidari, N.

    2017-04-01

    We study the spherical collapse model in the framework of spatially flat power law f(T) ∝ (- T)b gravity model. We find that the linear and non-linear growth of spherical overdensities of this particular f(T) model are affected by the power-law parameter b. Finally, we compute the predicted number counts of virialized haloes in order to distinguish the current f(T) model from the expectations of the concordance Λ cosmology. Specifically, the present analysis suggests that the f(T) gravity model with positive (negative) b predicts more (less) virialized objects with respect to those of Λ cold dark matter.

  15. An interval number-based multiple attribute bid-decision making model for substation equipments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhu Lili

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available By analyzing the characteristics of public bidding for substation equipments and combining with the research methods of multiple attribute decision-making problems, a multiple attribute bid-decision making model is presented. Firstly, the weight of interval numbers is specified by using the interval numbers theory and entropy theory. Secondly, the deviation degree of decision-making scheme is proposed. Then the schemes are sorted. A typical case is analyzed based on the above-mentioned.

  16. Statistical Modeling of the Trends Concerning the Number of Hospitals and Medical Centres in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela OPAIT

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This study reveals the technique for to achive the shapes of the mathematical models which put in evidence the distributions of the values concerning the number of Hospitals, respectively Medical Centres, in our country, in the time horizon 2005-2014. In the same time, we can to observe the algorithm applied for to construct forecasts about the evolutions regarding the number of Hospitals and Medical Centres in Romania.

  17. The Influence of the Number of Different Stocks on the Levy-Levy-Solomon Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, R.

    The stock market model of Levy, Levy, Solomon is simulated for more than one stock to analyze the behavior for a large number of investors. Small markets can lead to realistic looking prices for one and more stocks. A large number of investors leads to a semi-regular fashion simulating one stock. For many stocks, three of the stocks are semi-regular and dominant, the rest is chaotic. Aside from that we changed the utility function and checked the results.

  18. A Fokker-Planck Model of the Boltzmann Equation with Correct Prandtl Number for Polyatomic Gases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathiaud, J.; Mieussens, L.

    2017-09-01

    We propose an extension of the Fokker-Planck model of the Boltzmann equation to get a correct Prandtl number in the Compressible Navier-Stokes asymptotics for polyatomic gases. This is obtained by replacing the diffusion coefficient (which is the equilibrium temperature) by a non diagonal temperature tensor, like the Ellipsoidal-Statistical model is obtained from the Bathnagar-Gross-Krook model of the Boltzmann equation, and by adding a diffusion term for the internal energy. Our model is proved to satisfy the properties of conservation and a H-theorem. A Chapman-Enskog analysis shows how to compute the transport coefficients of our model. Some numerical tests are performed to illustrate that a correct Prandtl number can be obtained.

  19. Two-dimensional lattice Boltzmann model for compressible flows with high Mach number

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Yanbiao; Xu, Aiguo; Zhang, Guangcai; Yu, Xijun; Li, Yingjun

    2008-03-01

    In this paper we present an improved lattice Boltzmann model for compressible Navier-Stokes system with high Mach number. The model is composed of three components: (i) the discrete-velocity-model by M. Watari and M. Tsutahara [Phys. Rev. E 67 (2003) 036306], (ii) a modified Lax-Wendroff finite difference scheme where reasonable dissipation and dispersion are naturally included, (iii) artificial viscosity. The improved model is convenient to compromise the high accuracy and stability. The included dispersion term can effectively reduce the numerical oscillation at discontinuity. The added artificial viscosity helps the scheme to satisfy the von Neumann stability condition. Shock tubes and shock reflections are used to validate the new scheme. In our numerical tests the Mach numbers are successfully increased up to 20 or higher. The flexibility of the new model makes it suitable for tracking shock waves with high accuracy and for investigating nonlinear nonequilibrium complex systems.

  20. A Fokker-Planck Model of the Boltzmann Equation with Correct Prandtl Number for Polyatomic Gases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathiaud, J.; Mieussens, L.

    2017-07-01

    We propose an extension of the Fokker-Planck model of the Boltzmann equation to get a correct Prandtl number in the Compressible Navier-Stokes asymptotics for polyatomic gases. This is obtained by replacing the diffusion coefficient (which is the equilibrium temperature) by a non diagonal temperature tensor, like the Ellipsoidal-Statistical model is obtained from the Bathnagar-Gross-Krook model of the Boltzmann equation, and by adding a diffusion term for the internal energy. Our model is proved to satisfy the properties of conservation and a H-theorem. A Chapman-Enskog analysis shows how to compute the transport coefficients of our model. Some numerical tests are performed to illustrate that a correct Prandtl number can be obtained.

  1. Finite Temperature Induced Fermion Number In The Nonlinear sigma Model In (2+1) Dimensions

    CERN Document Server

    Dunne, G V; Rao, K; Dunne, Gerald V.; Lopez-Sarrion, Justo; Rao, Kumar

    2002-01-01

    We compute the finite temperature induced fermion number for fermions coupled to a static nonlinear sigma model background in (2+1) dimensions, in the derivative expansion limit. While the zero temperature induced fermion number is well known to be topological (it is the winding number of the background), at finite temperature there is a temperature dependent correction that is nontopological -- this finite T correction is sensitive to the detailed shape of the background. At low temperature we resum the derivative expansion to all orders, and we consider explicit forms of the background as a CP^1 instanton or as a baby skyrmion.

  2. What counts in preschool number knowledge? A Bayes factor analytic approach toward theoretical model development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mou, Yi; Berteletti, Ilaria; Hyde, Daniel C

    2017-09-06

    Preschool children vary tremendously in their numerical knowledge, and these individual differences strongly predict later mathematics achievement. To better understand the sources of these individual differences, we measured a variety of cognitive and linguistic abilities motivated by previous literature to be important and then analyzed which combination of these variables best explained individual differences in actual number knowledge. Through various data-driven Bayesian model comparison and selection strategies on competing multiple regression models, our analyses identified five variables of unique importance to explaining individual differences in preschool children's symbolic number knowledge: knowledge of the count list, nonverbal approximate numerical ability, working memory, executive conflict processing, and knowledge of letters and words. Furthermore, our analyses revealed that knowledge of the count list, likely a proxy for explicit practice or experience with numbers, and nonverbal approximate numerical ability were much more important to explaining individual differences in number knowledge than general cognitive and language abilities. These findings suggest that children use a diverse set of number-specific, general cognitive, and language abilities to learn about symbolic numbers, but the contribution of number-specific abilities may overshadow that of more general cognitive abilities in the learning process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Reproductive health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-04-01

    This article explores the reproductive health status of China. Since 1990, China has stepped up its efforts in promoting reproductive health and maternal and child health. Several studies demonstrated a remarkable progress made in this area. By 1997, maternal and infant mortality rates have declined, while the penetration rate for the immunization program and inpatient delivery rate increased. Despite these achievements, however, much remains to be done such as the lack of client-centered approaches to meet the increasingly diverse needs of the population for family planning services. A survey conducted in 1995 showed that the country's family planning program was focused primarily on demographic issues while little attention was given to reproductive health objectives. The situation improved when the State Planning Commission implemented its pilot program called the Quality of Care in Family Planning in China. The program yielded encouraging results including a reoriented philosophy towards reproductive health services, enhanced service facilities, informed choices for family planning methods, and the development of an operational information system. Another strategy adopted to address fertility and reproductive health issues was the implementation of adolescent reproductive health education as a required course for senior middle schools. Lastly, this article provided a brief overview of China's HIV/AIDS situation.

  4. High-order lattice Boltzmann models for wall-bounded flows at finite Knudsen numbers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feuchter, C; Schleifenbaum, W

    2016-07-01

    We analyze a large number of high-order discrete velocity models for solving the Boltzmann-Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook equation for finite Knudsen number flows. Using the Chapman-Enskog formalism, we prove for isothermal flows a relation identifying the resolved flow regimes for low Mach numbers. Although high-order lattice Boltzmann models recover flow regimes beyond the Navier-Stokes level, we observe for several models significant deviations from reference results. We found this to be caused by their inability to recover the Maxwell boundary condition exactly. By using supplementary conditions for the gas-surface interaction it is shown how to systematically generate discrete velocity models of any order with the inherent ability to fulfill the diffuse Maxwell boundary condition accurately. Both high-order quadratures and an exact representation of the boundary condition turn out to be crucial for achieving reliable results. For Poiseuille flow, we can reproduce the mass flow and slip velocity up to the Knudsen number of 1. Moreover, for small Knudsen numbers, the Knudsen layer behavior is recovered.

  5. Simplified physical models of the flow around flexible insect wings at low Reynolds numbers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harenberg, Steve; Reis, Johnny; Miller, Laura

    2011-11-01

    Some of the smallest insects fly at Reynolds numbers in the range of 5-100. We built a dynamically scaled physical model of a flexible insect wing and measured the resulting wing deformations and flow fields. The wing models were submerged in diluted corn syrup and rotated about the root of the wing for Reynolds numbers ranging from 1-100. Spatially resolved flow fields were obtained using particle image velocimetry (PIV). Deformations of the wing were tracked using DLTdv software to determine the motion and induced curvature of the wing.

  6. Classic models of population dynamics: assumptions about selfregulative mechanisms and numbers of interactions between individuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.V. Nedorezov

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Stochastic model of migrations of individuals within the limits of finite domain on a plane is considered. It is assumed that population size scale is homogeneous, and there doesn't exist an interval of optimal values of population size (Alley effect doesn't realize for population. For every fixed value of population size number of interactions between individuals is calculated (as average in space and time. Correspondence between several classic models and numbers of interactions between individuals is analyzed.

  7. VARIATIONS IN REPRODUCTIVE TOXICANT IDENTIFICATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simmons, F

    2008-05-13

    Reproductive toxicants are a very important class of compounds. They present unique hazards to those of child bearing ages, perform their 'dirty work' using a wide variety of mechanisms on a number of different organs, and are regulatorily important. Because of all of this, properly identifying reproductive toxicants is important, but fraught with difficulty. In this paper we will describe types or reproductive toxicants, their importance, and both mistakes and good practices that people who are not experts in reproductive toxicology may use in their attempts to identify them. Additionally, this paper will focus on chemical reproductive toxicants and will not address biological agents that could affect reproductive toxicity although many principles outlined here could be applied to that endeavor.

  8. Low Reynolds number turbulence modeling of blood flow in arterial stenoses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghalichi, F; Deng, X; De Champlain, A; Douville, Y; King, M; Guidoin, R

    1998-01-01

    Moderate and severe arterial stenoses can produce highly disturbed flow regions with transitional and or turbulent flow characteristics. Neither laminar flow modeling nor standard two-equation models such as the kappa-epsilon turbulence ones are suitable for this kind of blood flow. In order to analyze the transitional or turbulent flow distal to an arterial stenosis, authors of this study have used the Wilcox low-Re turbulence model. Flow simulations were carried out on stenoses with 50, 75 and 86% reductions in cross-sectional area over a range of physiologically relevant Reynolds numbers. The results obtained with this low-Re turbulence model were compared with experimental measurements and with the results obtained by the standard kappa-epsilon model in terms of velocity profile, vortex length, wall shear stress, wall static pressure, and turbulence intensity. The comparisons show that results predicted by the low-Re model are in good agreement with the experimental measurements. This model accurately predicts the critical Reynolds number at which blood flow becomes transitional or turbulent distal an arterial stenosis. Most interestingly, over the Re range of laminar flow, the vortex length calculated with the low-Re model also closely matches the vortex length predicted by laminar flow modeling. In conclusion, the study strongly suggests that the proposed model is suitable for blood flow studies in certain areas of the arterial tree where both laminar and transitional/turbulent flows coexist.

  9. Communicating about quantity without a language model: number devices in homesign grammar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppola, Marie; Spaepen, Elizabet; Goldin-Meadow, Susan

    2013-01-01

    All natural languages have formal devices for communicating about number, be they lexical (e.g., two, many) or grammatical (e.g., plural markings on nouns and/or verbs). Here we ask whether linguistic devices for number arise in communication systems that have not been handed down from generation to generation. We examined deaf individuals who had not been exposed to a usable model of conventional language (signed or spoken), but had nevertheless developed their own gestures, called homesigns, to communicate. Study 1 examined four adult homesigners and a hearing communication partner for each homesigner. The adult homesigners produced two main types of number gestures: gestures that enumerated sets (cardinal number marking), and gestures that signaled one vs. more than one (non-cardinal number marking). Both types of gestures resembled, in form and function, number signs in established sign languages and, as such, were fully integrated into each homesigner's gesture system and, in this sense, linguistic. The number gestures produced by the homesigners' hearing communication partners displayed some, but not all, of the homesigners' linguistic patterns. To better understand the origins of the patterns displayed by the adult homesigners, Study 2 examined a child homesigner and his hearing mother, and found that the child's number gestures displayed all of the properties found in the adult homesigners' gestures, but his mother's gestures did not. The findings suggest that number gestures and their linguistic use can appear relatively early in homesign development, and that hearing communication partners are not likely to be the source of homesigners' linguistic expressions of non-cardinal number. Linguistic devices for number thus appear to be so fundamental to language that they can arise in the absence of conventional linguistic input. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. HaplotypeCN: copy number haplotype inference with Hidden Markov Model and localized haplotype clustering.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yen-Jen Lin

    Full Text Available Copy number variation (CNV has been reported to be associated with disease and various cancers. Hence, identifying the accurate position and the type of CNV is currently a critical issue. There are many tools targeting on detecting CNV regions, constructing haplotype phases on CNV regions, or estimating the numerical copy numbers. However, none of them can do all of the three tasks at the same time. This paper presents a method based on Hidden Markov Model to detect parent specific copy number change on both chromosomes with signals from SNP arrays. A haplotype tree is constructed with dynamic branch merging to model the transition of the copy number status of the two alleles assessed at each SNP locus. The emission models are constructed for the genotypes formed with the two haplotypes. The proposed method can provide the segmentation points of the CNV regions as well as the haplotype phasing for the allelic status on each chromosome. The estimated copy numbers are provided as fractional numbers, which can accommodate the somatic mutation in cancer specimens that usually consist of heterogeneous cell populations. The algorithm is evaluated on simulated data and the previously published regions of CNV of the 270 HapMap individuals. The results were compared with five popular methods: PennCNV, genoCN, COKGEN, QuantiSNP and cnvHap. The application on oral cancer samples demonstrates how the proposed method can facilitate clinical association studies. The proposed algorithm exhibits comparable sensitivity of the CNV regions to the best algorithm in our genome-wide study and demonstrates the highest detection rate in SNP dense regions. In addition, we provide better haplotype phasing accuracy than similar approaches. The clinical association carried out with our fractional estimate of copy numbers in the cancer samples provides better detection power than that with integer copy number states.

  11. HaplotypeCN: Copy Number Haplotype Inference with Hidden Markov Model and Localized Haplotype Clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yen-Jen; Chen, Yu-Tin; Hsu, Shu-Ni; Peng, Chien-Hua; Tang, Chuan-Yi; Yen, Tzu-Chen; Hsieh, Wen-Ping

    2014-01-01

    Copy number variation (CNV) has been reported to be associated with disease and various cancers. Hence, identifying the accurate position and the type of CNV is currently a critical issue. There are many tools targeting on detecting CNV regions, constructing haplotype phases on CNV regions, or estimating the numerical copy numbers. However, none of them can do all of the three tasks at the same time. This paper presents a method based on Hidden Markov Model to detect parent specific copy number change on both chromosomes with signals from SNP arrays. A haplotype tree is constructed with dynamic branch merging to model the transition of the copy number status of the two alleles assessed at each SNP locus. The emission models are constructed for the genotypes formed with the two haplotypes. The proposed method can provide the segmentation points of the CNV regions as well as the haplotype phasing for the allelic status on each chromosome. The estimated copy numbers are provided as fractional numbers, which can accommodate the somatic mutation in cancer specimens that usually consist of heterogeneous cell populations. The algorithm is evaluated on simulated data and the previously published regions of CNV of the 270 HapMap individuals. The results were compared with five popular methods: PennCNV, genoCN, COKGEN, QuantiSNP and cnvHap. The application on oral cancer samples demonstrates how the proposed method can facilitate clinical association studies. The proposed algorithm exhibits comparable sensitivity of the CNV regions to the best algorithm in our genome-wide study and demonstrates the highest detection rate in SNP dense regions. In addition, we provide better haplotype phasing accuracy than similar approaches. The clinical association carried out with our fractional estimate of copy numbers in the cancer samples provides better detection power than that with integer copy number states. PMID:24849202

  12. Do uterine natural killer cell numbers in peri-implantation endometrium predict hypertensive disorder in pregnancy in women with a history of reproductive failure?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Alice Wai Yee; Archer, Bethan; Mariee, Najat; Li, Tin Chiu; Laird, Susan M

    2014-12-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate whether or not increased uterine natural killer (uNK) cell numbers in the peri-implantation endometrium are associated with an increased risk of hypertensive disorders in a subsequent pregnancy. This is a retrospective study including 80 women with a history of unexplained recurrent miscarriage or recurrent implantation failure. Precisely timed endometrial biopsies were obtained from women 7-9 days after the luteinising hormone surge. uNK cells were immunostained for CD56+ and expressed as a percentage of total stromal cells. Patients were defined as having a high uNK cell count if the percentage of total stromal cells was more than 13.9%. Five out of 29 (17.2%) women in the high uNK cell count group and 5 out of 51 (9.8%) women in the normal uNK cell count group developed gestational hypertension. Pre-eclampsia was diagnosed in 2 (6.9%) patients in the high uNK cell count group and 1 (2.0%) patient from the normal uNK cell count group. There was no significant difference in the incidence of either gestational hypertension (P=0.483) and pre-eclampsia (P=0.296) between groups. The overall incidence of hypertensive disease in women with high uNK cell count (24.1%) was two times higher than women with normal uNK cell count (11.8%), but it was not statistically significant (P=0.208). An increased uNK cells count in the peri-implantation period in a cycle prior to conception did not appear to significantly increase the likelihood of hypertensive disease of pregnancy.

  13. A multilevel model to address batch effects in copy number estimation using SNP arrays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scharpf, Robert B; Ruczinski, Ingo; Carvalho, Benilton; Doan, Betty; Chakravarti, Aravinda; Irizarry, Rafael A

    2011-01-01

    Submicroscopic changes in chromosomal DNA copy number dosage are common and have been implicated in many heritable diseases and cancers. Recent high-throughput technologies have a resolution that permits the detection of segmental changes in DNA copy number that span thousands of base pairs in the genome. Genomewide association studies (GWAS) may simultaneously screen for copy number phenotype and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) phenotype associations as part of the analytic strategy. However, genomewide array analyses are particularly susceptible to batch effects as the logistics of preparing DNA and processing thousands of arrays often involves multiple laboratories and technicians, or changes over calendar time to the reagents and laboratory equipment. Failure to adjust for batch effects can lead to incorrect inference and requires inefficient post hoc quality control procedures to exclude regions that are associated with batch. Our work extends previous model-based approaches for copy number estimation by explicitly modeling batch and using shrinkage to improve locus-specific estimates of copy number uncertainty. Key features of this approach include the use of biallelic genotype calls from experimental data to estimate batch-specific and locus-specific parameters of background and signal without the requirement of training data. We illustrate these ideas using a study of bipolar disease and a study of chromosome 21 trisomy. The former has batch effects that dominate much of the observed variation in the quantile-normalized intensities, while the latter illustrates the robustness of our approach to a data set in which approximately 27% of the samples have altered copy number. Locus-specific estimates of copy number can be plotted on the copy number scale to investigate mosaicism and guide the choice of appropriate downstream approaches for smoothing the copy number as a function of physical position. The software is open source and implemented in the R

  14. The use of multilevel models to evaluate sources of variation in reproductive performance in dairy cattle in Reunion Island.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dohoo, I R; Tillard, E; Stryhn, H; Faye, B

    2001-07-19

    Sources of variation in measures of reproductive performance in dairy cattle were evaluated using data collected from 3207 lactations in 1570 cows in 50 herds from five geographic regions of Reunion Island (located off the east coast of Madagascar). Three continuously distributed reproductive parameters (intervals from calving-to-conception, calving-to-first-service and first-service-to-conception) were considered, along with one Binomial outcome (first-service-conception risk). Multilevel models which take into account the hierarchical nature of the data were used to fit all models. For the overall measure of calving-to-conception interval, 86% of the variation resided at the lactation level with only 7, 6 and 2% at the cow, herd and regional levels, respectively. The proportion of variance at the herd and cow levels were slightly higher for the calving-to-first-service interval (12 and 9%, respectively) - but for the other two parameters (first-service-conception risk and first-service-to-conception interval), >90% of the variation resided at the lactation level. For the three continuous dependent variables, comparison of results between models based on log-transformed data and Box-Cox-transformed data suggested that minor departures from the assumption of normality did not have a substantial effect on the variance estimates. For the Binomial dependent variable, five different estimation procedures (penalised quasi-likelihood, Markov-Chain Monte Carlo, parametric and non-parametric bootstrap estimates and maximum-likelihood) yielded substantially different results for the estimate of the cow-level variance.

  15. Latent risk and trend models for the evolution of annual fatality numbers in 30 European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupont, Emmanuelle; Commandeur, Jacques J F; Lassarre, Sylvain; Bijleveld, Frits; Martensen, Heike; Antoniou, Constantinos; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George; Hermans, Elke; Pérez, Katherine; Santamariña-Rubio, Elena; Usami, Davide Shingo; Giustiniani, Gabriele

    2014-10-01

    In this paper a unified methodology is presented for the modelling of the evolution of road safety in 30 European countries. For each country, annual data of the best available exposure indicator and of the number of fatalities were simultaneously analysed with the bivariate latent risk time series model. This model is based on the assumption that the amount of exposure and the number of fatalities are intrinsically related. It captures the dynamic evolution in the fatalities as the product of the dynamic evolution in two latent trends: the trend in the fatality risk and the trend in the exposure to that risk. Before applying the latent risk model to the different countries it was first investigated and tested whether the exposure indicator at hand and the fatalities in each country were in fact related at all. If they were, the latent risk model was applied to that country; if not, a univariate local linear trend model was applied to the fatalities series only, unless the latent risk time series model was found to yield better forecasts than the univariate local linear trend model. In either case, the temporal structure of the unobserved components of the optimal model was established, and structural breaks in the trends related to external events were identified and captured by adding intervention variables to the appropriate components of the model. As a final step, for each country the optimally modelled developments were projected into the future, thus yielding forecasts for the number of fatalities up to and including 2020. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Reproductive biology and its impact on body size: comparative analysis of mammalian, avian and dinosaurian reproduction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Werner

    Full Text Available Janis and Carrano (1992 suggested that large dinosaurs might have faced a lower risk of extinction under ecological changes than similar-sized mammals because large dinosaurs had a higher potential reproductive output than similar-sized mammals (JC hypothesis. First, we tested the assumption underlying the JC hypothesis. We therefore analysed the potential reproductive output (reflected in clutch/litter size and annual offspring number of extant terrestrial mammals and birds (as "dinosaur analogs" and of extinct dinosaurs. With the exception of rodents, the differences in the reproductive output of similar-sized birds and mammals proposed by Janis and Carrano (1992 existed even at the level of single orders. Fossil dinosaur clutches were larger than litters of similar-sized mammals, and dinosaur clutch sizes were comparable to those of similar-sized birds. Because the extinction risk of extant species often correlates with a low reproductive output, the latter difference suggests a lower risk of population extinction in dinosaurs than in mammals. Second, we present a very simple, mathematical model that demonstrates the advantage of a high reproductive output underlying the JC hypothesis. It predicts that a species with a high reproductive output that usually faces very high juvenile mortalities will benefit more strongly in terms of population size from reduced juvenile mortalities (e.g., resulting from a stochastic reduction in population size than a species with a low reproductive output that usually comprises low juvenile mortalities. Based on our results, we suggest that reproductive strategy could have contributed to the evolution of the exceptional gigantism seen in dinosaurs that does not exist in extant terrestrial mammals. Large dinosaurs, e.g., the sauropods, may have easily sustained populations of very large-bodied species over evolutionary time.

  17. On Correlation Numbers in 2D Minimal Gravity and Matrix Models

    CERN Document Server

    Belavin, A A

    2008-01-01

    We test recent results for the four-point correlation numbers in Minimal Liouville Gravity against calculations in the one-Matrix Models, and find full agreement. In the process, we construct the resonance transformation which relates coupling parameters of the Liouville Gravity with the couplings of the Matrix Models, up to the terms of the order 4. We also conjecture the general form of this transformation.

  18. Eulerian models for particle trajectory crossing in turbulent flows over a large range of Stokes numbers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Rodney O.; Vie, Aymeric; Laurent, Frederique; Chalons, Christophe; Massot, Marc

    2012-11-01

    Numerous applications involve a disperse phase carried by a gaseous flow. To simulate such flows, one can resort to a number density function (NDF) governed a kinetic equation. Traditionally, Lagrangian Monte-Carlo methods are used to solve for the NDF, but are expensive as the number of numerical particles needed must be large to control statistical errors. Moreover, such methods are not well adapted to high-performance computing because of the intrinsic inhomogeneity of the NDF. To overcome these issues, Eulerian methods can be used to solve for the moments of the NDF resulting in an unclosed Eulerian system of hyperbolic conservation laws. To obtain closure, in this work a multivariate bi-Gaussian quadrature is used, which can account for particle trajectory crossing (PTC) over a large range of Stokes numbers. This closure uses up to four quadrature points in 2-D velocity phase space to capture large-scale PTC, and an anisotropic Gaussian distribution around each quadrature point to model small-scale PTC. Simulations of 2-D particle-laden isotropic turbulence at different Stokes numbers are employed to validate the Eulerian models against results from the Lagrangian approach. Good agreement is found for the number density fields over the entire range of Stokes numbers tested. Research carried out at the Center for Turbulence Research 2012 Summer Program.

  19. Probability modeling of the number of positive cores in a prostate cancer biopsy session, with applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serfling, Robert; Ogola, Gerald

    2016-02-10

    Among men, prostate cancer (CaP) is the most common newly diagnosed cancer and the second leading cause of death from cancer. A major issue of very large scale is avoiding both over-treatment and under-treatment of CaP cases. The central challenge is deciding clinical significance or insignificance when the CaP biopsy results are positive but only marginally so. A related concern is deciding how to increase the number of biopsy cores for larger prostates. As a foundation for improved choice of number of cores and improved interpretation of biopsy results, we develop a probability model for the number of positive cores found in a biopsy, given the total number of cores, the volumes of the tumor nodules, and - very importantly - the prostate volume. Also, three applications are carried out: guidelines for the number of cores as a function of prostate volume, decision rules for insignificant versus significant CaP using number of positive cores, and, using prior distributions on total tumor size, Bayesian posterior probabilities for insignificant CaP and posterior median CaP. The model-based results have generality of application, take prostate volume into account, and provide attractive tradeoffs of specificity versus sensitivity. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Modeling both of the number of pausibacillary and multibacillary leprosy patients by using bivariate poisson regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winahju, W. S.; Mukarromah, A.; Putri, S.

    2015-03-01

    Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease caused by bacteria of leprosy (Mycobacterium leprae). Leprosy has become an important thing in Indonesia because its morbidity is quite high. Based on WHO data in 2014, in 2012 Indonesia has the highest number of new leprosy patients after India and Brazil with a contribution of 18.994 people (8.7% of the world). This number makes Indonesia automatically placed as the country with the highest number of leprosy morbidity of ASEAN countries. The province that most contributes to the number of leprosy patients in Indonesia is East Java. There are two kind of leprosy. They consist of pausibacillary and multibacillary. The morbidity of multibacillary leprosy is higher than pausibacillary leprosy. This paper will discuss modeling both of the number of multibacillary and pausibacillary leprosy patients as responses variables. These responses are count variables, so modeling will be conducted by using bivariate poisson regression method. Unit experiment used is in East Java, and predictors involved are: environment, demography, and poverty. The model uses data in 2012, and the result indicates that all predictors influence significantly.

  1. A Comparison of Three Random Number Generators for Aircraft Dynamic Modeling Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grauer, Jared A.

    2017-01-01

    Three random number generators, which produce Gaussian white noise sequences, were compared to assess their suitability in aircraft dynamic modeling applications. The first generator considered was the MATLAB (registered) implementation of the Mersenne-Twister algorithm. The second generator was a website called Random.org, which processes atmospheric noise measured using radios to create the random numbers. The third generator was based on synthesis of the Fourier series, where the random number sequences are constructed from prescribed amplitude and phase spectra. A total of 200 sequences, each having 601 random numbers, for each generator were collected and analyzed in terms of the mean, variance, normality, autocorrelation, and power spectral density. These sequences were then applied to two problems in aircraft dynamic modeling, namely estimating stability and control derivatives from simulated onboard sensor data, and simulating flight in atmospheric turbulence. In general, each random number generator had good performance and is well-suited for aircraft dynamic modeling applications. Specific strengths and weaknesses of each generator are discussed. For Monte Carlo simulation, the Fourier synthesis method is recommended because it most accurately and consistently approximated Gaussian white noise and can be implemented with reasonable computational effort.

  2. Modeling Size-number Distributions of Seeds for Use in Soil Bank Studies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hugo Casco; Alexandra Soveral Dias; Luís Silva Dias

    2008-01-01

    Knowledge of soil seed banks is essential to understand the dynamics of plant populations and communities and would greatly benefit from the integration of existing knowledge on ecological correlations of seed size and shape. The present study aims to establish a feasible and meaningful method to describe size-number distributions of seeds in multi-species situations. For that purpose, size-number distributions of seeds with known length, width and thickness were determined by sequential sieving. The most appropriate combination of sieves and seeds dimensions was established, and the adequacy of the power function and the Weibull model to describe size-number distributions of spherical, non.spherical, and all seeds was investigated. We found that the geometric mean of seed length, width and thickness was the most adequate size estimator, providing shape-independent measures of seeds volume directly related to sieves mesh side, and that both the power function and the Weibuli model provide high quality descriptions of size-number distributions of spherical,non-spherical, and all seeds. We also found that, in spite of its slightly lower accuracy, the power function is, at this stage, a more trustworthy model to characterize size-number distributions of seeds in soil banks because in some Weibull equations the estimates of the scale parameter were not acceptable.

  3. Droplet number uncertainties associated with CCN: an assessment using observations and a global model adjoint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. H. Moore

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We use the Global Modelling Initiative (GMI chemical transport model with a cloud droplet parameterisation adjoint to quantify the sensitivity of cloud droplet number concentration to uncertainties in predicting CCN concentrations. Published CCN closure uncertainties for six different sets of simplifying compositional and mixing state assumptions are used as proxies for modelled CCN uncertainty arising from application of those scenarios. It is found that cloud droplet number concentrations (Nd are fairly insensitive to the number concentration (Na of aerosol which act as CCN over the continents (∂lnNd/∂lnNa ~10–30%, but the sensitivities exceed 70% in pristine regions such as the Alaskan Arctic and remote oceans. This means that CCN concentration uncertainties of 4–71% translate into only 1–23% uncertainty in cloud droplet number, on average. Since most of the anthropogenic indirect forcing is concentrated over the continents, this work shows that the application of Köhler theory and attendant simplifying assumptions in models is not a major source of uncertainty in predicting cloud droplet number or anthropogenic aerosol indirect forcing for the liquid, stratiform clouds simulated in these models. However, it does highlight the sensitivity of some remote areas to pollution brought into the region via long-range transport (e.g., biomass burning or from seasonal biogenic sources (e.g., phytoplankton as a source of dimethylsulfide in the southern oceans. Since these transient processes are not captured well by the climatological emissions inventories employed by current large-scale models, the uncertainties in aerosol-cloud interactions during these events could be much larger than those uncovered here. This finding motivates additional measurements in these pristine regions, for which few observations exist, to quantify the impact (and associated uncertainty of transient aerosol processes on cloud properties.

  4. Age Related Assessment of Sugar and Protein Intake of Ceratitis capitata in ad libitum Conditions and Modeling Its Relation to Reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouloussis, Nikos A; Damos, Petros T; Ioannou, Charalambos S; Tsitsoulas, Constantinos; Papadopoulos, Nikos T; Nestel, David; Koveos, Dimitris S

    2017-01-01

    In the inquiry on the age related dietary assessment of an organism, knowledge of the distributional patterns of food intake throughout the entire life span is very important, however, age related nutritional studies often lack robust feeding quantification methods due to their limitations in obtaining short-term food-intake measurements. In this study, we developed and standardized a capillary method allowing precise life-time measurements of food consumption by individual adult medflies, Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae), under laboratory conditions. Protein or sugar solutions were offered via capillaries to individual adults for a 5 h interval daily and their consumption was measured, while individuals had lifetime ad libitum access to sugar or protein, respectively, in solid form. Daily egg production was also measured. The multivariate data-set (i.e., the age-dependent variations in the amount of sugar and protein ingestion and their relation to egg production) was analyzed using event history charts and 3D interpolation models. Maximum sugar intake was recorded early in adult life; afterwards, ingestion progressively dropped. On the other hand, maximum levels of protein intake were observed at mid-ages; consumption during early and late adult ages was kept at constant levels. During the first 30 days of age, type of diet and sex significantly contributed to the observed difference in diet intake while number of laid eggs varied independently. Male and female adult longevity was differentially affected by diet: protein ingestion extended the lifespan, especially, of males. Smooth surface models revealed a significant relationship between the age dependent dietary intake and reproduction. Both sugar and protein related egg-production have a bell-shaped relationship, and the association between protein and egg-production is better described by a 3D Lorenzian function. Additionally, the proposed 3D interpolation models produced good estimates of egg

  5. Age Related Assessment of Sugar and Protein Intake of Ceratitis capitata in ad libitum Conditions and Modeling Its Relation to Reproduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikos A. Kouloussis

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available In the inquiry on the age related dietary assessment of an organism, knowledge of the distributional patterns of food intake throughout the entire life span is very important, however, age related nutritional studies often lack robust feeding quantification methods due to their limitations in obtaining short-term food-intake measurements. In this study, we developed and standardized a capillary method allowing precise life-time measurements of food consumption by individual adult medflies, Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae, under laboratory conditions. Protein or sugar solutions were offered via capillaries to individual adults for a 5 h interval daily and their consumption was measured, while individuals had lifetime ad libitum access to sugar or protein, respectively, in solid form. Daily egg production was also measured. The multivariate data-set (i.e., the age-dependent variations in the amount of sugar and protein ingestion and their relation to egg production was analyzed using event history charts and 3D interpolation models. Maximum sugar intake was recorded early in adult life; afterwards, ingestion progressively dropped. On the other hand, maximum levels of protein intake were observed at mid-ages; consumption during early and late adult ages was kept at constant levels. During the first 30 days of age, type of diet and sex significantly contributed to the observed difference in diet intake while number of laid eggs varied independently. Male and female adult longevity was differentially affected by diet: protein ingestion extended the lifespan, especially, of males. Smooth surface models revealed a significant relationship between the age dependent dietary intake and reproduction. Both sugar and protein related egg-production have a bell-shaped relationship, and the association between protein and egg-production is better described by a 3D Lorenzian function. Additionally, the proposed 3D interpolation models produced good

  6. Evaluation and intercomparison of the aerosol number concentrations and CCNs in global models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fanourgakis, Georgios; Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Kanakidou, Maria; Makkonen, Risto; Grini, Alf; Stier, Philip; Watson-Parris, Duncan; Schutgens, Nick; Neubauer, David; Lohmann, Ulrike; Nenes, Athanasis

    2017-04-01

    In this work preliminary results of the current status of BACCHUS global modeling of aerosol number concentrations and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are presented and compared to observations. So far, simulation results from the TM4-ECPL, ECHAM-HAM, ECHAM6-HAM2 and NorESM models have become available. Hourly model results for the aerosol number concentrations and CCN concentrations at various supersaturation ratios, as well as their corresponding daily and monthly averaged values are compared to the measurements from nine ACTRIS sites for the years 2010-2015. CCN concentration persistence obtained from the auto-correlation function of observational and model data is compared. Seasonal variations are also considered in the present analysis. In order to identify any common biases against observations, the model results are further analyzed in terms of the particles chemical composition and the set of hygroscopicity parameters used for the calculation of CCNs. Annual mean surface-level number concentrations of various particle sizes and CCNs at 0.2% supersaturation predicted by the models along with their corresponding chemical composition are presented and discussed.

  7. The relationship between aerosol and cloud drop number concentrations in a global aerosol microphysics model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. J. Pringle

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Empirical relationships that link cloud droplet number (CDN to aerosol number or mass are commonly used to calculate global fields of CDN for climate forcing assessments. In this work we use a sectional global model of sulfate and sea-salt aerosol coupled to a mechanistic aerosol activation scheme to explore the limitations of this approach. We find that a given aerosol number concentration produces a wide range of CDN concentrations due to variations in the shape of the aerosol size distribution. On a global scale, the dependence of CDN on the size distribution results in regional biases in predicted CDN (for a given aerosol number. Empirical relationships between aerosol number and CDN are often derived from regional data but applied to the entire globe. In an analogous process, we derive regional "correlation-relations" between aerosol number and CDN and apply these regional relations to calculations of CDN on the global scale. The global mean percentage error in CDN caused by using regionally derived CDN-aerosol relations is 20 to 26%, which is about half the global mean percentage change in CDN caused by doubling the updraft velocity. However, the error is as much as 25–75% in the Southern Ocean, the Arctic and regions of persistent stratocumulus when an aerosol-CDN correlation relation from the North Atlantic is used. These regions produce much higher CDN concentrations (for a given aerosol number than predicted by the globally uniform empirical relations. CDN-aerosol number relations from different regions also show very different sensitivity to changing aerosol. The magnitude of the rate of change of CDN with particle number, a measure of the aerosol efficacy, varies by a factor 4. CDN in cloud processed regions of persistent stratocumulus is particularly sensitive to changing aerosol number. It is therefore likely that the indirect effect will be underestimated in these important regions.

  8. The relationship between aerosol and cloud drop number concentrations in a global aerosol microphysics model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. J. Pringle

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Empirical relationships that link cloud droplet number (CDN to aerosol number or mass are commonly used to calculate global fields of CDN for climate forcing assessments. In this work we use a sectional global model of sulfate and sea-salt aerosol coupled to a mechanistic aerosol activation scheme to explore the limitations of this approach. We find that a given aerosol number concentration produces a wide range of CDN concentrations due to variations in the shape of the aerosol size distribution. On a global scale, the dependence of CDN on the size distribution results in regional biases in predicted CDN (for a given aerosol number. Empirical relationships between aerosol number and CDN are often derived from regional data but applied to the entire globe. In an analogous process, we derive regional "correlation-relations" between aerosol number and CDN and apply these regional relations to calculations of CDN on the global scale. The global mean percentage error in CDN caused by using regionally derived CDN-aerosol relations is 20 to 26%, which is about half the global mean percentage change in CDN caused by doubling the updraft velocity. However, the error is as much as 25–75% in the Southern Ocean, the Arctic and regions of persistent stratocumulus when an aerosol-CDN correlation relation from the North Atlantic is used. These regions produce much higher CDN concentrations (for a given aerosol number than predicted by the globally uniform empirical relations. CDN-aerosol number relations from different regions also show very different sensitivity to changing aerosol. The magnitude of the rate of change of CDN with particle number, a measure of the aerosol efficacy, varies by a factor 4. CDN in cloud processed regions of persistent stratocumulus is particularly sensitive to changing aerosol number. It is therefore likely that the indirect effect will be underestimated in these important regions.

  9. Open intersection numbers, Kontsevich--Penner model and cut-and-join operators

    CERN Document Server

    Alexandrov, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    We continue our investigation of the Kontsevich--Penner model, which describes intersection theory on moduli spaces both for open and closed curves. In particular, we show how Buryak's residue formula, which connects two generating functions of intersection numbers, appears in the general context of matrix models and tau-functions. This allows us to prove that the Kontsevich--Penner matrix integral indeed describes open intersection numbers. For arbitrary $N$ we show that the string and dilaton equations completely specify the solution of the KP hierarchy. We derive a complete family of the Virasoro and W-constraints and using these constraints we construct the cut-and-join operators. The case $N=1$, corresponding to open intersection numbers, is particularly interesting: for this case we obtain two different families of the Virasoro constraints, so that the difference between them describes the dependence of the tau-function on even times.

  10. Open intersection numbers, Kontsevich-Penner model and cut-and-join operators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alexandrov, Alexander [Mathematics Institute, University of Freiburg,Eckerstrasse 1, 79104 Freiburg (Germany); ITEP,Bolshaya Cheremushkinskaya 25, 117218 Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2015-08-07

    We continue our investigation of the Kontsevich-Penner model, which describes intersection theory on moduli spaces both for open and closed curves. In particular, we show how Buryak’s residue formula, which connects two generating functions of intersection numbers, appears in the general context of matrix models and tau-functions. This allows us to prove that the Kontsevich-Penner matrix integral indeed describes open intersection numbers. For arbitrary N we show that the string and dilaton equations completely specify the solution of the KP hierarchy. We derive a complete family of the Virasoro and W-constraints, and using these constraints, we construct the cut-and-join operators. The case N=1, corresponding to open intersection numbers, is particularly interesting: for this case we obtain two different families of the Virasoro constraints, so that the difference between them describes the dependence of the tau-function on even times.

  11. Long-Term Sunspot Number Prediction based on EMD Analysis and AR Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tong Xu; Jian Wu; Zhen-Sen Wu; Qiang Li

    2008-01-01

    The Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Auto-Regressive model (AR) are applied to a long-term prediction of sunspot numbers. With the sample data of sunspot numbers from 1848 to 1992, the method is evaluated by examining the measured data of the solar cycle 23 with the prediction: different time scale components are obtained by the EMD method and multi-step predicted values are combined to reconstruct the sunspot number time series. The result is remarkably good in comparison to the predictions made by the solar dynamo and precursor approaches for cycle 23. Sunspot numbers of the coming solar cycle 24 are obtained with the data from 1848 to 2007, the maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle is predicted to be about 112 in 2011-2012.

  12. Modeling the Aerodynamic Lift Produced by Oscillating Airfoils at Low Reynolds Number

    CERN Document Server

    Khalid, Muhammad Saif Ullah

    2015-01-01

    For present study, setting Strouhal Number (St) as control parameter, numerical simulations for flow past oscillating NACA-0012 airfoil at 1,000 Reynolds Numbers (Re) are performed. Temporal profiles of unsteady forces; lift and thrust, and their spectral analysis clearly indicate the solution to be a period-1 attractor for low Strouhal numbers. This study reveals that aerodynamic forces produced by plunging airfoil are independent of initial kinematic conditions of airfoil that proves the existence of limit cycle. Frequencies present in the oscillating lift force are composed of fundamental (fs), even and odd harmonics (3fs) at higher Strouhal numbers. Using numerical simulations, shedding frequencies (f_s) were observed to be nearly equal to the excitation frequencies in all the cases. Unsteady lift force generated due to the plunging airfoil is modeled by modified van der Pol oscillator. Using method of multiple scales and spectral analysis of steady-state CFD solutions, frequencies and damping terms in th...

  13. High Reynolds Number Studies in the Wake of a Submarine Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez, Juan; Reynolds, Ryan; Smits, Alexander

    2005-11-01

    Results are presented from submarine wake studies conducted in Princeton University's High Reynolds Number Test Facility (HRTF). Compressed air is used as a working fluid enabling Reynolds numbers based on length of up to 10^8, about 1/5 of full scale. Measurements at Reynolds numbers up to 3 x10^6 have been completed, and show that, for the model condition without fins, the wake mean velocity was self-similar at locations 6 and 9 diameters downstream. Also, PIV at Reynolds numbers near 10^4 showed that when the yaw angle was varied the sail-tip and sail-hull junction vortices increased in magnitude emphasizing the importance of fully understanding the flow characteristics of a maneuvering submarine.

  14. Representational Flexibility and Problem-Solving Ability in Fraction and Decimal Number Addition: A Structural Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deliyianni, Eleni; Gagatsis, Athanasios; Elia, Iliada; Panaoura, Areti

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to propose and validate a structural model in fraction and decimal number addition, which is founded primarily on a synthesis of major theoretical approaches in the field of representations in Mathematics and also on previous research on the learning of fractions and decimals. The study was conducted among 1,701 primary…

  15. Positive expectations feedback experiments and number guessing games as models of financial markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sonnemans, J.; Tuinstra, J.

    2010-01-01

    In repeated number guessing games choices typically converge quickly to the Nash equilibrium. In positive expectations feedback experiments, however, convergence to the equilibrium price tends to be very slow, if it occurs at all. Both types of experimental designs have been suggested as modeling es

  16. Modeling of low-capillary number segmented flows in microchannels using OpenFOAM

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoang, D.A.; Van Steijn V.; Portela, L.M.; Kreutzer, M.T.; Kleijn, C.R.

    2012-01-01

    Modeling of low-Capillary number segmented flows in microchannels is important for the design of microfluidic devices. We present numerical validations of microfluidic flow simulations using the volume-of-fluid (VOF) method as implemented in OpenFOAM. Two benchmark cases were investigated to ensure

  17. Comparison of criteria for choosing the number of classes in Bayesian finite mixture models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Nasserinejad (Kazem); J.M. van Rosmalen (Joost); W. de Kort (Wim); E.M.E.H. Lesaffre (Emmanuel)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractIdentifying the number of classes in Bayesian finite mixture models is a challenging problem. Several criteria have been proposed, such as adaptations of the deviance information criterion, marginal likelihoods, Bayes factors, and reversible jump MCMC techniques. It was recently shown th

  18. Representational Flexibility and Problem-Solving Ability in Fraction and Decimal Number Addition: A Structural Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deliyianni, Eleni; Gagatsis, Athanasios; Elia, Iliada; Panaoura, Areti

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to propose and validate a structural model in fraction and decimal number addition, which is founded primarily on a synthesis of major theoretical approaches in the field of representations in Mathematics and also on previous research on the learning of fractions and decimals. The study was conducted among 1,701 primary…

  19. Undetected Higgs decays and neutrino masses in gauge mediated, lepton number violating models

    CERN Document Server

    Banks, Tom; Fortin, Jean-François

    2008-01-01

    We discuss SUSY models in which renormalizable lepton number violating couplings hide the decay of the Higgs through h -> \\chi_1^0 + \\chi_1^0 followed by \\chi_1^0 -> \\tau + 2 jets or \\chi_1^0 -> \

  20. Evaluation of the developmental and reproductive toxicity of methoxychlor using an anuran (Xenopus tropicalis) chronic exposure model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fort, Douglas J; Thomas, John H; Rogers, Robert L; Noll, Andra; Spaulding, Clinton D; Guiney, Patrick D; Weeks, John A

    2004-10-01

    The chronic toxicity of methoxychlor to the South African clawed frog, Xenopus (Silurana) tropicalis, was evaluated using a life cycle approach. The chronic exposure period ranged from mid-cell blastula stage [NF (Nieuwkoop and Faber, 1994) stage 8] to 90 days of exposure, during which time the organisms generally completed metamorphosis and emerged as juvenile frogs. Methoxychlor concentrations ranged from 1 to 100 micrograms/l. Methoxychlor concentrations >10 micrograms/l caused delayed development. Organisms exposed to 10 micrograms/l methoxychlor for 30 days showed enlarged thyroid glands with follicular hyperplasia. No increase in mortality or external malformation was observed at any of the test concentrations during early embryo-larval development (NF stage 8 to NF stage 46; ca. 2 days exposure). A concentration-dependent increase in external malformations and internal abnormalities of the liver and gonads were noted after 90 days of exposure, however. Skewing of the sex ratio toward the female gender decreased ovary weight and number of oocytes, and increased oocyte immaturity and necrosis were noted at methoxychlor concentrations of 100 micrograms/l. Reductions in testis weight and sperm cell count were also detected at 100 micrograms/l methoxychlor. Results from these studies suggested that methoxychlor was capable of altering the rate of larval development, but did not adversely affect early embryo-larval development (2 days of exposure) as manifested in external malformations. Internal malformations, increases in the ratio of phenotypic females, were induced by chronic methoxychlor exposure. In addition, reproductive endpoints, most notably in the female specimens, were adversely affected by methoxychlor exposure. These studies add to the standardization and validation of a useful amphibian test methods capable of evaluating both reproductive and developmental effects of potential endocrine disrupting chemicals over a life cycle exposure.

  1. PROBLEMATIKA PENERAPAN MODEL PEMBELAJARAN KOOPERATIF TIPE NUMBERED HEAD TOGETHER (NHT DAN ALTERNATIF SOLUSINYA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juwita Rini

    2017-07-01

    ABSTRACT Basically education is a process that helps humans to develope themselves to face any changes that occur. In the whole process of education, teaching and learning activities are the most basic activities. It implies the success or failure of the achievement of educational goals depends on how the teaching and learning process are designed and implemented. It has strong relation to the learning model applied in teaching and learning process. One of learning model that can be applied is a cooperative learning model. Cooperative learning model is believed to improve students' cognitive and affective skills. Cooperative learning model has several types or variations. One f them is Numbered Head Together (NHT. But it is found a problem that can hamper the achievement of optimal learning and teaching process during the implementation of NHT. Therefore, the need for an appropriate solution so that NHT can be implemented  more effectively. Keywords: cooperative learning model, NHT, implementation of NHT.

  2. The constitutively active Ah receptor (CA-AhR) mouse as a model for dioxin exposure - effects in reproductive organs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunnberg, Sara; Andersson, Patrik; Poellinger, Lorenz; Hanberg, Annika

    2011-12-01

    The dioxin/aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) mediates most toxic effects of dioxins. In utero/lactational exposure to 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) impairs fetal/neonatal development and the developing male reproductive tract are among the most sensitive tissues. TCDD causes antiestrogenic responses in rodent mammary gland and uterus and in human breast cancer cell lines in the presence of estrogen. Also, more recently an estrogen-like effect of TCDD/AhR has been suggested in the absence of estrogen. A transgenic mouse expressing a constitutively active AhR (CA-AhR) was developed as a model mimicking a situation of constant exposure to AhR agonists. Male and female reproductive tissues of CA-AhR mice were characterized for some of the effects commonly seen after dioxin exposure. Sexually mature CA-AhR female mice showed decreased uterus weight, while an uterotrophic assay in immature CA-AhR mice resulted in increased uterus weight. In immature mice, both TCDD-exposure and CA-AhR increased the expression of the estrogen receptor target gene Cathepsin D. When co-treated with 17β-estradiol no increase in Cathepsin D levels occurred in either TCDD-exposed or CA-AhR mice. In sexually mature male CA-AhR mice the weights of testis and ventral prostate were decreased and the epididymal sperm reserve was reduced. The results of the present study are in accordance with previous studies on dioxin-exposed rodents in that an activated AhR (here CA-AhR) leads to antiestrogenic effects in the presence of estrogen, but to estrogenic effects in the absence of estrogen. These results suggest the CA-AhR mouse model as a useful tool for studies of continuous low activity of the AhR from early development, resembling the human exposure situation.

  3. Relations between the baryon quantum numbers of the Standard Model and of the rotating neutrino model

    CERN Document Server

    Vayenas, Constantinos G; Grigoriou, Dimitrios P

    2016-01-01

    We discuss the common features between the Standard Model taxonomy of particles, based on electric charge, strangeness and isospin, and the taxonomy emerging from the key structural elements of the rotating neutrino model, which describes baryons as bound states formed by three highly relativistic electrically polarized neutrinos forming a symmetric ring rotating around a central electrically charged or polarized lepton. It is shown that the two taxonomies are fully compatible with each other.

  4. Variable Selection for Generalized Varying Coefficient Partially Linear Models with Diverging Number of Parameters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zheng-yan Lin; Yu-ze Yuan

    2012-01-01

    Semiparametric models with diverging number of predictors arise in many contemporary scientific areas. Variable selection for these models consists of two components: model selection for non-parametric components and selection of significant variables for the parametric portion.In this paper,we consider a variable selection procedure by combining basis function approximation with SCAD penalty.The proposed procedure simultaneously selects significant variables in the parametric components and the nonparametric components.With appropriate selection of tuning parameters,we establish the consistency and sparseness of this procedure.

  5. Comparison of Criteria for Choosing the Number of Classes in Bayesian Finite Mixture Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasserinejad, Kazem; van Rosmalen, Joost; de Kort, Wim; Lesaffre, Emmanuel

    2017-01-01

    Identifying the number of classes in Bayesian finite mixture models is a challenging problem. Several criteria have been proposed, such as adaptations of the deviance information criterion, marginal likelihoods, Bayes factors, and reversible jump MCMC techniques. It was recently shown that in overfitted mixture models, the overfitted latent classes will asymptotically become empty under specific conditions for the prior of the class proportions. This result may be used to construct a criterion for finding the true number of latent classes, based on the removal of latent classes that have negligible proportions. Unlike some alternative criteria, this criterion can easily be implemented in complex statistical models such as latent class mixed-effects models and multivariate mixture models using standard Bayesian software. We performed an extensive simulation study to develop practical guidelines to determine the appropriate number of latent classes based on the posterior distribution of the class proportions, and to compare this criterion with alternative criteria. The performance of the proposed criterion is illustrated using a data set of repeatedly measured hemoglobin values of blood donors.

  6. Basic reproduction number of coxsackievirus type A6 and A16 and enterovirus 71: estimates from outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease in Singapore, a tropical city-state.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, C T K; Jiang, L; Ma, S; James, L; Ang, L W

    2016-04-01

    Coxsackievirus A6 (CV-A6), coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) and enterovirus 71 (EV-A71) were the major enteroviruses causing nationwide hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics in Singapore in the last decade. We estimated the basic reproduction number (R 0) of these enteroviruses to obtain a better understanding of their transmission dynamics. We merged records of cases from HFMD outbreaks reported between 2007 and 2012 with laboratory results from virological surveillance. R 0 was estimated based on the cumulative number of reported cases in the initial growth phase of each outbreak associated with the particular enterovirus type. A total of 33 HFMD outbreaks were selected based on the inclusion criteria specified for our study, of which five were associated with CV-A6, 13 with CV-A16, and 15 with EV-A71. The median R 0 was estimated to be 5·04 [interquartile range (IQR) 3·57-5·16] for CV-A6, 2·42 (IQR 1·85-3·36) for CV-A16, and 3·50 (IQR 2·36-4·53) for EV-A71. R 0 was not significantly associated with number of infected children (P = 0·86), number of exposed children (P = 0·94), and duration of the outbreak (P = 0·05). These enterovirus-specific R 0 estimates will be helpful in providing insights into the potential growth of future HFMD epidemics and outbreaks for timely implementation of disease control measures, together with disease dynamics such as severity of the cases.

  7. Droplet number prediction uncertainties from CCN: an integrated assessment using observations and a global adjoint model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. H. Moore

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI chemical transport model with a cloud droplet parameterization adjoint to quantify the sensitivity of cloud droplet number concentration to uncertainties in predicting CCN concentrations. Published CCN closure prediction uncertainties for six different sets of simplifying compositional and mixing state assumptions are used as proxies for modeled CCN uncertainty arising from application of those scenarios. It is found that cloud droplet number concentrations are fairly insensitive to CCN-active aerosol number concentrations over the continents (∂Nd/∂Na ~ 10–30%, but the sensitivities exceed 70% in pristine regions such as the Alaskan Arctic and remote oceans. Since most of the anthropogenic indirect forcing is concentrated over the continents, this work shows that the application of Köhler theory and attendant simplifying assumptions in models is not a major source of uncertainty in predicting cloud droplet number or anthropogenic aerosol indirect forcing for the liquid, stratiform clouds simulated in these models. However, it does highlight the sensitivity of some remote areas to pollution brought into the region via long-range transport (e.g. biomass burning or from seasonal biogenic sources (e.g. phytoplankton as a source of dimethylsulfide in the southern oceans. Since these transient processes are not captured well by the climatological emissions inventories employed by current large-scale models, the uncertainties in aerosol-cloud interactions during these events could be much larger than those uncovered here. This finding motivates additional measurements in these pristine regions, which have recieved little attention to date, in order to quantify the impact of, and uncertainty associated with, transient processes in effecting changes in cloud properties.

  8. Numerical simulation of flow around square cylinder using different low-Reynolds number turbulence models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Ling; ZHOU Jun-li; CHEN Xiao-chun; LAN Li; ZHANG Nan

    2008-01-01

    ABE-KONDOH-NAGANO, ABID, YANG-SHIH and LAUNDER-SHARMA low-Reynolds number turbulence models were applied to simulating unsteady turbulence flow around a square cylinder in different phases flow field and time-averaged unsteady flow field. Meanwhile, drag and lift coefficients of the four different low-Reynolds number turbulence models were analyzed. The simulated results of YANG-SHIH model are close to the large eddy simulation results and experimental results, and they are significantly better than those of ABE-KONDOH-NAGANO, ABID and LAUNDER-SHARMR models. The modification of the generation of turbulence kinetic energy is the key factor to a successful simulation for YANG-SHIH model, while the correction of the turbulence near the wall has minor influence on the simulation results. For ABE-KONDOH-NAGANO, ABID and LAUNDER-SHARMA models satisfactory simulation results cannot be obtained due to lack of the modification of the generation of turbulence kinetic energy. With the joint force of wall function and the turbulence models with the adoption of corrected swirl stream,flow around a square cylinder can be fully simulated with less grids by the near-wall.

  9. Pole tide Love number - an important parameter for polar motion modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschner, S.; Schmidt, M. G.; Seitz, F.

    2013-12-01

    The Euler-Liouville equation is the basic physical model to describe Earth rotation. It is based on the balance of angular momentum in the Earth system. The pole tide Love number is needed to characterize the rotational deformation effect, which depends on the internal structure and rheology of the Earth. There is a direct dependency between the pole tide Love number and the period and damping of the Chandler oscillation. Here we estimate the pole tide Love number on the basis of an inversion of the Euler-Liouville equation. The Earth orientation parameters are used as input parameters. They have been observed precisely over several decades by geodetic methods (C01 and C04 time series). It will be shown that the estimated pole tide Love number leads to significantly better results for polar motion compared to the original value taken from the Conventions of the International Earth Rotation and Reference System Service (IERS). Nevertheless the estimation is dependent on the input models for the subsystems (e.g. atmosphere and ocean models), applied estimation approach and time frame. These aspects are analyzed and discussed in detail.

  10. Periodontal Dressing-containing Green Tea Epigallocathechin gallate Increases Fibroblasts Number in Gingival Artifical Wound Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ardisa U. Pradita

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false IN X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Green tea leaf (Camellia sinensis is one of herbal plants that is used for traditional medicine. Epigallocatechin gallate (EGCG in green tea is the most potential polyphenol component and has the strongest biological activity. It is known that EGCG has potential effect on wound healing. Objective: This study aimed to determine the effect of adding green tea EGCG into periodontal dressing on the number of fibroblasts after gingival artificial wound in animal model. Methods: Gingival artifical wound model was performed using 2mm punch biopsy on 24 rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus. The animals were divided into two groups. Periodontal dressing with EGCG and without EGCG was applied to the experimental and control group, respectively. Decapitation period was scheduled at day 3, 5, and 7 after treatment. Histological analysis to count the number of fibroblasts was performed. Results: Number of fibroblasts was significantly increased in time over the experimental group treated with EGCG periodontal dressing compared to control (p<0.05. Conclusion: EGCG periodontal dressing could increase the number of fibroblast, therefore having role in wound healing after periodontal surgery in animal model.DOI: 10.14693/jdi.v20i3.197

  11. Mathematical modeling of electromagnetic dimensionless number for electromagnetic casting of metals and its application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Hui; LI Ting-ju; JIN Jun-ze

    2005-01-01

    In order to estimate the feasibility of electromagnetic casting (EMC) for different metals, a mathematical model named the electromagnetic dimensionless number (EMDN) was presented, and its validity was proved by the experiments of aluminum and Sn-3 %Pb alloy. From the experiment and the analysis of EMDN it can be concluded that the EMC of steel can be attained only when the magnetic flux density is larger than 0.09 T, while that required for aluminum is only 0. 04 T. The mathematical expression of the electromagnetic dimensionless number was given out.

  12. Human reproductive issues in space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santy, Patricia A.; Jennings, Richard T.

    1992-01-01

    A review of reproductive functioning in animal species studied during space flight demonstrated that most species were affected significantly by the absence of gravity and/or the presence of radiation. These two factors induced alterations in normal reproductive functioning independently of, as well as in combination with, each other. Based on animal models, several potential problem areas regarding human reproductive physiology and functioning in the space environment were identified. While there are no current space flight investigations, the animal studies suggest priorities for future research in human reproduction. Such studies will be critical for the successful colonization of the space frontier.

  13. The power of sensitivity analysis and thoughts on models with large numbers of parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Havlacek, William [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2008-01-01

    The regulatory systems that allow cells to adapt to their environments are exceedingly complex, and although we know a great deal about the intricate mechanistic details of many of these systems, our ability to make accurate predictions about their system-level behaviors is severely limited. We would like to make such predictions for a number of reasons. How can we reverse dysfunctional molecular changes of these systems that cause disease? More generally, how can we harness and direct cellular activities for beneficial purposes? Our ability to make accurate predictions about a system is also a measure ofour fundamental understanding of that system. As evidenced by our mastery of technological systems, a useful understanding ofa complex system can often be obtained through the development and analysis ofa mathematical model, but predictive modeling of cellular regulatory systems, which necessarily relies on quantitative experimentation, is still in its infancy. There is much that we need to learn before modeling for practical applications becomes routine. In particular, we need to address a number of issues surrounding the large number of parameters that are typically found in a model for a cellular regulatory system.

  14. Modeling droplet vaporization and combustion with the volume of fluid method at a small Reynolds number

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao-bin ZHANG; Wei ZHANG; Xue-jun ZHANG

    2012-01-01

    The volume of fluid (VOF) formulation is applied to model the combustion process of a single droplet in a hightemperature convective air free stream environment.The calculations solve the flow field for both phases,and consider the droplet deformation based on an axisymmetrical model.The chemical reaction is modeled with one-step finite-rate mechanism and the thcrmo-physica1 properties for the gas mixture are species and temperature dependence.A mass transfer model applicable to the VOF calculations due to vaporization of the liquid phases is developed in consideration with the fluctuation of the liquid surface.The model is validated by examining the burning rate constants at different convective air temperatures,which accord well with experimental data of previous studies.Other phenomena from the simulations,such as the transient history of droplet deformation and flame structure,are also qualitatively accordant with the descriptions of other numerical results.However,a different droplet deformation mechanism for the low Reynolds number is explained compared with that for the high Reynolds number.The calculations verified the feasibility of the VOF computational fluid dynamics (CFD) formulation as well as the mass transfer model due to vaporization.

  15. Multistate Models for Estimation of Survival and Reproduction in the Grey-headed Albatross (Thalassarche chrysostoma)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Converse, Sarah J.; Kendall, William L.; Doherty, Paul F.; Ryan, Peter G.

    2009-01-01

    Reliable information on demography is necessary for conservation of albatrosses, the most threatened family of pelagic birds. Albatross survival has been estimated using mark?recapture data and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model. However, albatross exhibit skipped breeding, violating assumptions of the CJS model. Multistate modeling integrating unobservable states is a promising tool for such situations. We applied multistate models to data on Grey-headed Albatross (Thalassarche chrysostoma) to evaluate model performance and describe demographic patterns. These included a multistate equivalent of the CJS model (MS-2), including successful and failed breeding states and ignoring temporary emigration, and three versions of a four-state multistate model that accounts for temporary emigration by integrating unobservable states: a model (MS-4) with one sample per breeding season, a robust design model (RDMS-4) with multiple samples per season and geographic closure within the season, and an open robust design model (ORDMS-4) with multiple samples per season and staggered entry and exit of animals within the season. Survival estimates from the MS-2 model were higher than those from the MS-4 model, which resulted in apparent percent relative bias averaging 2.2%. The ORDMS-4 model was more appropriate than the RDMS-4 model, given that staggered entry and exit occurred. Annual survival probability for Greyheaded Albatross at Marion Island was 0.951 ? 0.006 (SE), and the probability of skipped breeding in a subsequent year averaged 0.938 for successful and 0.163 for failed breeders. We recommend that multistate models with unobservable states, combined with robust-design sampling, be used in studies of species that exhibit temporary emigration.

  16. Stochastic dynamic simulation modeling including multitrait genetics to estimate genetic, technical, and financial consequences of dairy farm reproduction and selection strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    The objective of this study was to develop a daily stochastic dynamic dairy simulation model which included multi-trait genetics, and to evaluate the effects of various reproduction and selection strategies on the genetic, technical and financial performance of a dairy herd. The 12 correlated geneti...

  17. Developing predictive approaches to characterize adaptive responses of the reproductive endocrine axis to aromatase inhibition: II. Computational modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breen, Miyuki; Villeneuve, Daniel L; Ankley, Gerald T; Bencic, David C; Breen, Michael S; Watanabe, Karen H; Lloyd, Alun L; Conolly, Rory B

    2013-06-01

    Endocrine-disrupting chemicals can affect reproduction and development in humans and wildlife. We developed a computational model of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis in female fathead minnows to predict dose-response and time-course (DRTC) behaviors for endocrine effects of the aromatase inhibitor, fadrozole (FAD). The model describes adaptive responses to endocrine stress involving regulated secretion of a generic gonadotropin (LH/FSH) from the hypothalamic-pituitary complex. For model development, we used plasma 17β-estradiol (E2) concentrations and ovarian cytochrome P450 (CYP) 19A aromatase mRNA data from two time-course experiments, each of which included both an exposure and a depuration phase, and plasma E2 data from a third 4-day study. Model parameters were estimated using E2 concentrations for 0, 0.5, and 3 µg/l FAD exposure concentrations, and good fits to these data were obtained. The model accurately predicted CYP19A mRNA fold changes for controls and three FAD doses (0, 0.5, and 3 µg/l) and plasma E2 dose response from the 4-day study. Comparing the model-predicted DRTC with experimental data provided insight into how the feedback control mechanisms in the HPG axis mediate these changes: specifically, adaptive changes in plasma E2 levels occurring during exposure and "overshoot" occurring postexposure. This study demonstrates the value of mechanistic modeling to examine and predict dynamic behaviors in perturbed systems. As this work progresses, we will obtain a refined understanding of how adaptive responses within the vertebrate HPG axis affect DRTC behaviors for aromatase inhibitors and other types of endocrine-active chemicals and apply that knowledge in support of risk assessments.

  18. Modeling of isothermal bubbly flow with interfacial area transport equation and bubble number density approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sari, Salih [Hacettepe University, Department of Nuclear Engineering, Beytepe, 06800 Ankara (Turkey); Erguen, Sule [Hacettepe University, Department of Nuclear Engineering, Beytepe, 06800 Ankara (Turkey)], E-mail: se@nuke.hacettepe.edu.tr; Barik, Muhammet; Kocar, Cemil; Soekmen, Cemal Niyazi [Hacettepe University, Department of Nuclear Engineering, Beytepe, 06800 Ankara (Turkey)

    2009-03-15

    In this study, isothermal turbulent bubbly flow is mechanistically modeled. For the modeling, Fluent version 6.3.26 is used as the computational fluid dynamics solver. First, the mechanistic models that simulate the interphase momentum transfer between the gas (bubbles) and liquid (continuous) phases are investigated, and proper models for the known flow conditions are selected. Second, an interfacial area transport equation (IATE) solution is added to Fluent's solution scheme in order to model the interphase momentum transfer mechanisms. In addition to solving IATE, bubble number density (BND) approach is also added to Fluent and this approach is also used in the simulations. Different source/sink models derived for the IATE and BND models are also investigated. The simulations of experiments based on the available data in literature are performed by using IATE and BND models in two and three-dimensions. The results show that the simulations performed by using IATE and BND models agree with each other and with the experimental data. The simulations performed in three-dimensions give better agreement with the experimental data.

  19. Number of Clusters and the Quality of Hybrid Predictive Models in Analytical CRM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Łapczyński Mariusz

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Making more accurate marketing decisions by managers requires building effective predictive models. Typically, these models specify the probability of customer belonging to a particular category, group or segment. The analytical CRM categories refer to customers interested in starting cooperation with the company (acquisition models, customers who purchase additional products (cross- and up-sell models or customers intending to resign from the cooperation (churn models. During building predictive models researchers use analytical tools from various disciplines with an emphasis on their best performance. This article attempts to build a hybrid predictive model combining decision trees (C&RT algorithm and cluster analysis (k-means. During experiments five different cluster validity indices and eight datasets were used. The performance of models was evaluated by using popular measures such as: accuracy, precision, recall, G-mean, F-measure and lift in the first and in the second decile. The authors tried to find a connection between the number of clusters and models' quality.

  20. Reproductive physiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, G.F.; Russman, S.E.; Ellis, David H.; Gee, George F.; Mirande, Claire M.

    1996-01-01

    Conclusions: Although the general pattern of avian physiology applies to cranes, we have identified many physiological mechanisms (e.g., effects of disturbance) that need further study. Studies with cranes are expensive compared to those done with domestic fowl because of the crane's larger size, low reproductive rate, and delayed sexual maturity. To summarize, the crane reproductive system is composed of physiological and anatomical elements whose function is controlled by an integrated neural-endocrine system. Males generally produce semen at a younger age than when females lay eggs. Eggs are laid in clutches of two (1 to 3), and females will lay additional clutches if the preceding clutches are removed. Both sexes build nests and incubate the eggs. Molt begins during incubation and body molt may be completed annually in breeding pairs. However, remiges are replaced sequentially over 2 to 3 years, or abruptly every 2 to 3 years in other species. Most immature birds replace their juvenal remiges over a 2 to 3 year period. Stress interferes with reproduction in cranes by reducing egg production or terminating the reproductive effort. In other birds, stress elevates corticosterone levels and decreases LHRH release. We know little about the physiological response of cranes to stress.

  1. Reproductive epidemiology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Jørn; Nøhr, Ellen Aagaard

    2010-01-01

    Reproductive health covers a broad category of health and disease conditions, according to the Cairo Statement. This chapter focuses on subfecundity fertility, fetal death, malformations, pregnancy complications, sexual health, and diseases that may have their origin in fetal life, but which will...

  2. Linear programming models and methods of matrix games with payoffs of triangular fuzzy numbers

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Deng-Feng

    2016-01-01

    This book addresses two-person zero-sum finite games in which the payoffs in any situation are expressed with fuzzy numbers. The purpose of this book is to develop a suite of effective and efficient linear programming models and methods for solving matrix games with payoffs in fuzzy numbers. Divided into six chapters, it discusses the concepts of solutions of matrix games with payoffs of intervals, along with their linear programming models and methods. Furthermore, it is directly relevant to the research field of matrix games under uncertain economic management. The book offers a valuable resource for readers involved in theoretical research and practical applications from a range of different fields including game theory, operational research, management science, fuzzy mathematical programming, fuzzy mathematics, industrial engineering, business and social economics. .

  3. Model-integrated estimation of normal tissue contamination for cancer SNP allelic copy number data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stjernqvist, Susann; Rydén, Tobias; Greenman, Chris D

    2011-01-01

    SNP allelic copy number data provides intensity measurements for the two different alleles separately. We present a method that estimates the number of copies of each allele at each SNP position, using a continuous-index hidden Markov model. The method is especially suited for cancer data, since it includes the fraction of normal tissue contamination, often present when studying data from cancer tumors, into the model. The continuous-index structure takes into account the distances between the SNPs, and is thereby appropriate also when SNPs are unequally spaced. In a simulation study we show that the method performs favorably compared to previous methods even with as much as 70% normal contamination. We also provide results from applications to clinical data produced using the Affymetrix genome-wide SNP 6.0 platform.

  4. Evaluation of a bilinear model for attenuation correction using CT numbers generated from a parametric method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, L C; Calzado, A

    2016-01-01

    A parametric model is used for the calculation of the CT number of some selected human tissues of known compositions (Hi) in two hybrid systems, one SPECT-CT and one PET-CT. Only one well characterized substance, not necessarily tissue-like, needs to be scanned with the protocol of interest. The linear attenuation coefficients of these tissues for some energies of interest (μ(i)) have been calculated from their tabulated compositions and the NIST databases. These coefficients have been compared with those calculated with the bilinear model from the CT number (μ(B)i). No relevant differences have been found for bones and lung. In the soft tissue region, the differences can be up to 5%. These discrepancies are attributed to the different chemical composition for the tissues assumed by both methods.

  5. The Estimate of the Optimum Number of Retail Stores of Small Market Areas Using Agent Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tajima, Takuya; Hibino, Takayuki; Abe, Takehiko; Kimura, Haruhiko

    At present, the conditions of the location and the optimal arrangements for retail stores of small market areas are examined with the several surveys. The surveys are important because the proceeds are influenced largely with the selection of the location. However, costs, time and experience are necessary in the surveys. For this reason, this research is intended for the retail stores of small market areas which expend a great deal of money for the surveys. The retail stores of small market areas in this paper are convenience stores. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the optimum number of convenience stores by computer simulation. We adopted the agent model. We constructed an agent model that had the customer agent, the shop agent and the landscape with the kind of necessary minimum parameters. And, we were able to make the simulation environment that reflected the real world. As a result, we could estimate the optimum number of convenience stores by simulations.

  6. Breeding or Assisted Reproduction? Relevance of the Horse Model Applied to the Conservation of Endangered Equids

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smits, K.; Hoogewijs, M.; Woelders, H.; Daels, P.; Soom, van A.

    2012-01-01

    Many wild equids are at present endangered in the wild. Concurrently, increased mechanization has pushed back the numbers of some old native horse breeds to levels that are no longer compatible with survival of the breed. Strong concerns arose in the last decade to preserve animal biodiversity, incl

  7. On the solutions of the $Z_n$-Belavin model with arbitrary number of sites

    CERN Document Server

    Hao, Kun; Li, Guang-Liang; Yang, Wen-Li; Shi, Kangjie; Wang, Yupeng

    2016-01-01

    The periodic $Z_n$-Belavin model on a lattice with an arbitrary number of sites $N$ is studied via the off-diagonal Bethe Ansatz method (ODBA). The eigenvalues of the corresponding transfer matrix are given in terms of an unified inhomogeneous $T-Q$ relation. In the special case of $N=nl$ with $l$ being also a positive integer, the resulting $T-Q$ relation recovers the homogeneous one previously obtained via algebraic Bethe Ansatz.

  8. Assessing Model Assumptions for Turbulent Premixed Combustion at High Karlovitz Number

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-03

    flames in the high-Karlovitz regime are characterized and modeled using Direct Numerical Simulations ( DNS ) with detailed chemistry. To enable the present...Simulations, detailed chemistry 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT UU 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON...information. 15. SUBJECT TERMS. Key words or phrases identifying major concepts in the report. 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION. Enter security classification

  9. Modeling Interventions in the Owned Cat Population to Decrease Numbers, Knox County, TN.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lancaster, Evan P; Lenhart, Suzanne; Ojogbo, Ejebagom J; Rekant, Steven I; Scott, Janelle R; Weimer, Heidi; New, John C

    2016-01-01

    To find management strategies for controlling the owned cat population in Knox County, TN, the authors formulated a mathematical model using biological properties of such nonhuman animals and spay actions on certain age classes. They constructed this discrete-time model to predict the future owned cat population in this county and to evaluate intervention strategies to surgically sterilize some proportion of the population. Using the predicted population size and the number of surgeries for specific scenarios, they showed that focusing on specific age classes can be an effective feature in spay programs.

  10. Influence of Turbulence Model for Wind Turbine Simulation in Low Reynolds Number

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masami Suzuki

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In designing a wind turbine, the validation of the mathematical model’s result is normally carried out by comparison with wind tunnel experiment data. However, the Reynolds number of the wind tunnel experiment is low, and the flow does not match fully developed turbulence on the leading edge of a wind turbine blade. Therefore, the transition area from laminar to turbulent flow becomes wide under these conditions, and the separation point is difficult to predict using turbulence models. The prediction precision decreases dramatically when working with tip speed ratios less than the maximum power point. This study carries out a steadiness calculation with turbulence model and an unsteadiness calculation with laminar model for a three-blade horizontal axis wind turbine. The validation of the calculations is performed by comparing with experimental results. The power coefficients calculated without turbulence models are in agreement with the experimental data for a tip speed ratio greater than 5.

  11. Link between reduced nephron number and hypertension: studies in a mutant mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poladia, Deepali Pitre; Kish, Kayle; Kutay, Benjamin; Bauer, John; Baum, Michel; Bates, Carlton M

    2006-04-01

    Low birth weight (LBW) infants with reduced nephron numbers have significantly increased risk for hypertension later in life, which is a devastating health problem. The risk from a reduction in nephron number alone is not clear. Recently, using conditional knock-out approach, we have developed a mutant mouse with reduced nephron number in utero and no change in birth weight, by deleting fibroblast growth factor receptor 2 (fgfr2) in the ureteric bud. Our purpose was to investigate the role of in utero reduced nephron number alone in absence of LBW as a risk for developing hypertension in adulthood. Using tail cuff blood pressure measurements we observed significant increases in systolic blood pressure in one year old mutant mice versus controls. We also detected cardiac end-organ injury from hypertension as shown by significant increases in normalized heart weights, left ventricular (LV) wall thickness, and LV tissue area. Two-dimensional echocardiography revealed no changes in cardiac output and therefore significant increases in systemic vascular resistance in mutants versus controls. We also observed increases in serum blood urea nitrogen (BUN) levels and histologic evidence of glomerular and renal tubular injury in mutant mice versus controls. Thus, these studies suggest that our mutant mice may serve as a relevant model to study the link between reduction of nephron number in utero and the risk of hypertension and chronic renal failure in adulthood.

  12. A top-down model to generate ensembles of runoff from a large number of hillslopes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. R. Furey

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available We hypothesize that total hillslope water loss for a rainfall–runoff event is inversely related to a function of a lognormal random variable, based on basin- and point-scale observations taken from the 21 km2 Goodwin Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW in Mississippi, USA. A top-down approach is used to develop a new runoff generation model both to test our physical-statistical hypothesis and to provide a method of generating ensembles of runoff from a large number of hillslopes in a basin. The model is based on the assumption that the probability distributions of a runoff/loss ratio have a space–time rescaling property. We test this assumption using streamflow and rainfall data from GCEW. For over 100 rainfall–runoff events, we find that the spatial probability distributions of a runoff/loss ratio can be rescaled to a new distribution that is common to all events. We interpret random within-event differences in runoff/loss ratios in the model to arise from soil moisture spatial variability. Observations of water loss during events in GCEW support this interpretation. Our model preserves water balance in a mean statistical sense and supports our hypothesis. As an example, we use the model to generate ensembles of runoff at a large number of hillslopes for a rainfall–runoff event in GCEW.

  13. A top-down model to generate ensembles of runoff from a large number of hillslopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furey, P. R.; Gupta, V. K.; Troutman, B. M.

    2013-09-01

    We hypothesize that total hillslope water loss for a rainfall-runoff event is inversely related to a function of a lognormal random variable, based on basin- and point-scale observations taken from the 21 km2 Goodwin Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW) in Mississippi, USA. A top-down approach is used to develop a new runoff generation model both to test our physical-statistical hypothesis and to provide a method of generating ensembles of runoff from a large number of hillslopes in a basin. The model is based on the assumption that the probability distributions of a runoff/loss ratio have a space-time rescaling property. We test this assumption using streamflow and rainfall data from GCEW. For over 100 rainfall-runoff events, we find that the spatial probability distributions of a runoff/loss ratio can be rescaled to a new distribution that is common to all events. We interpret random within-event differences in runoff/loss ratios in the model to arise from soil moisture spatial variability. Observations of water loss during events in GCEW support this interpretation. Our model preserves water balance in a mean statistical sense and supports our hypothesis. As an example, we use the model to generate ensembles of runoff at a large number of hillslopes for a rainfall-runoff event in GCEW.

  14. Flower diversity and bee reproduction in an arid ecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jimena Dorado

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Diverse flower communities are more stable in floral resource production along the flowering season, but the question about how the diversity and stability of resources affect pollinator reproduction remains open. High plant diversity could favor short foraging trips, which in turn would enhance bee fitness. In addition to plant diversity, greater temporal stability of floral resources in diverse communities could favor pollinator fitness because such communities are likely to occupy the phenological space more broadly, increasing floral availability for pollinators throughout the season. In addition, this potential effect of flower diversity on bee reproduction could be stronger for generalist pollinators because they can use a broader floral spectrum. Based on above arguments we predicted that pollinator reproduction would be positively correlated to flower diversity, and to temporal stability in flower production, and that this relationship would be stronger for the most generalized pollinator species. Materials and Methods: Using structural equation models, we evaluated the effect of these variables and other ecological factors on three estimates of bee reproduction (average number of brood cells per nest per site, total number of brood cells per site, and total number of nests per site, and whether such effects were modulated by bee generalization on floral resources. Results: Contrary to our expectations, flower diversity had no effect on bee reproduction, stability in flower production had a weakly negative effect on one of the bee reproductive variables, and the strength of the fitness-diversity relationship was unrelated to bee generalization. In contrast, elevation had a negative effect on bee reproduction, despite the narrow elevation range encompassed by our sites. Discussion: Flower diversity did not affect the reproduction of the solitary bees studied here. This result could stem from the context dependence of the

  15. Near-wall variable-Prandtl-number turbulence model for compressible flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, T. P.; So, R. M. C.; Zhang, H. S.

    1993-01-01

    A near-wall four-equation turbulence model is developed for the calculation of high-speed compressible turbulent boundary layers. The four equations used are the k-epsilon equations and the theta(exp 2)-epsilon (sub theta) equations. These equations are used to define the turbulent diffusivities for momentum and heat fluxes, thus allowing the assumption of dynamic similarity between momentum and heat transport to be relaxed. The Favre-averaged equations of motion are solved in conjunction with the four transport equations. Calculations are compared with measurements and with another model's predictions where the assumption of the constant turbulent Prandtl number is invoked. Compressible flat plate turbulent boundary layers with both adiabatic and constant temperature wall boundary conditions are considered. Results for the range of low Mach numbers and temperature ratios investigated are essentially the same as those obtained using an identical near-wall k-epsilon model. In general, there are significant improvements in the predictions of mean flow properties at high Mach numbers.

  16. Examining the Impact of Prandtl Number and Surface Convection Models on Deep Solar Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Mara, B. D.; Augustson, K.; Featherstone, N. A.; Miesch, M. S.

    2015-12-01

    Turbulent motions within the solar convection zone play a central role in the generation and maintenance of the Sun's magnetic field. This magnetic field reverses its polarity every 11 years and serves as the source of powerful space weather events, such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections, which can affect artificial satellites and power grids. The structure and inductive properties are linked to the amplitude (i.e. speed) of convective motion. Using the NASA Pleiades supercomputer, a 3D fluids code simulates these processes by evolving the Navier-Stokes equations in time and under an anelastic constraint. This code simulates the fluxes describing heat transport in the sun in a global spherical-shell geometry. Such global models can explicitly capture the large-scale motions in the deep convection zone but heat transport from unresolved small-scale convection in the surface layers must be parameterized. Here we consider two models for heat transport by surface convection, including a conventional turbulent thermal diffusion as well as an imposed flux that carries heat through the surface in a manner that is independent of the deep convection and the entropy stratification it establishes. For both models, we investigate the scaling of convective amplitude with decreasing diffusion (increasing Rayleigh number). If the Prandtl number is fixed, we find that the amplitude of convective motions increases with decreasing diffusion, possibly reaching an asymptotic value in the low diffusion limit. However, if only the thermal diffusion is decreased (keeping the viscosity fixed), we find that the amplitude of convection decreases with decreasing diffusion. Such a high-Prandtl-number, high-Peclet-number limit may be relevant for the Sun if magnetic fields mix momentum, effectively acting as an enhanced viscosity. In this case, our results suggest that the amplitude of large-scale convection in the Sun may be substantially less than in current models that employ an

  17. Reproductive History of Women With Takotsubo Cardiomyopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salmoirago-Blotcher, Elena; Dunsiger, Shira; Swales, Heather H; Aurigemma, Gerard P; Ockene, Ira; Rosman, Lindsey; Wittstein, Ilan S

    2016-12-15

    Takotsubo cardiomyopathy (TC) occurs predominantly in postmenopausal women, suggesting a possible role of reproductive and hormonal factors in the pathophysiology of this condition. Yet reproductive characteristics of women with TC have received limited attention. This prospective case-control study sought to explore reproductive characteristics associated with TC. Incident TC cases and myocardial infarction (MI) controls were recruited among consecutive women presenting at the emergency departments of 2 large medical centers in Massachusetts and Connecticut. Female healthy controls were recruited from a registry of research volunteers. Information about reproductive history was collected 1 month after discharge using standardized questionnaires completed during phone interviews. Linear and logistic regression models were used to estimate associations with reproductive factors. From March 2013 to October 2015, 209 women were screened for eligibility and 107 (45 TC, 32 MI, and 30 healthy controls) were enrolled. Conditions uniquely associated with TC were a history of irregular menses (adjusted OR, TC vs MI 8.30; 95% CI 1.01 to 69.18), number of pregnancies (adjusted β coefficient 0.69; SE 0.35, p = 0.05), and use of post-menopausal hormone replacement therapy (OR 5.79; CI 1.20 to 28.02). We did not find associations with history of infertility, breastfeeding, hysterectomy or oophorectomy, oral contraceptive use, and age at menopause. In conclusion, our findings suggest that premenopausal reproductive factors may play an important role in the onset of TC at a later age. These results need to be confirmed in future studies with larger populations.

  18. Dynamic non-equilibrium wall-modeling for large eddy simulation at high Reynolds numbers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawai, Soshi; Larsson, Johan

    2013-01-01

    A dynamic non-equilibrium wall-model for large-eddy simulation at arbitrarily high Reynolds numbers is proposed and validated on equilibrium boundary layers and a non-equilibrium shock/boundary-layer interaction problem. The proposed method builds on the prior non-equilibrium wall-models of Balaras et al. [AIAA J. 34, 1111-1119 (1996)], 10.2514/3.13200 and Wang and Moin [Phys. Fluids 14, 2043-2051 (2002)], 10.1063/1.1476668: the failure of these wall-models to accurately predict the skin friction in equilibrium boundary layers is shown and analyzed, and an improved wall-model that solves this issue is proposed. The improvement stems directly from reasoning about how the turbulence length scale changes with wall distance in the inertial sublayer, the grid resolution, and the resolution-characteristics of numerical methods. The proposed model yields accurate resolved turbulence, both in terms of structure and statistics for both the equilibrium and non-equilibrium flows without the use of ad hoc corrections. Crucially, the model accurately predicts the skin friction, something that existing non-equilibrium wall-models fail to do robustly.

  19. Modeling of Sunspot Numbers by a Modified Binary Mixture of Laplace Distribution Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabarinath, A.; Anilkumar, A. K.

    2008-07-01

    This paper presents a new approach for describing the shape of 11-year sunspot cycles by considering the monthly averaged values. This paper also brings out a prediction model based on the analysis of 22 sunspot cycles from the year 1749 onward. It is found that the shape of the sunspot cycles with monthly averaged values can be described by a functional form of modified binary mixture of Laplace density functions, modified suitably by introducing two additional parameters in the standard functional form. The six parameters, namely two locations, two scales, and two area parameters, characterize this model. The nature of the estimated parameters for the sunspot cycles from 1749 onward has been analyzed and finally we arrived at a sufficient set of the parameters for the proposed model. It is seen that this model picks up the sunspot peaks more closely than any other model without losing the match at other places at the same time. The goodness of fit for the proposed model is also computed with the Hathaway Wilson Reichmann overline{χ} measure, which shows, on average, that the fitted model passes within 0.47 standard deviations of the actual averaged monthly sunspot numbers.

  20. Evaluation of surveillance protocols for detecting porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus infection in boar studs by simulation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovira, Albert; Reicks, Darwin; Muñoz-Zanzi, Claudia

    2007-09-01

    Because porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) can be transmitted through semen, PRRSV-free boar studs need to be routinely monitored to rapidly detect any potential PRRSV introduction. However, current protocols for monitoring PRRSV in boar studs are diverse, sometimes very costly, and their effectiveness has not been quantified. The objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of different monitoring protocols to detect PRRSV introduction into a negative boar stud by using a simulation modeling approach. A stochastic transmission model was constructed to simulate the spread of PRRSV in a typical negative boar stud in the USA (herd size of 200 boars, 60% annual replacement) and the performance of monitoring protocols by using different sample sizes (10, 30, and 60 samples), sampling frequency (3 times a week, weekly, and biweekly), and diagnostic procedures (PCR on semen, PCR on serum, ELISA on serum, and both PCR and ELISA on serum). The monitoring protocols were evaluated in terms of the time from PRRSV introduction into the boar stud to PRRSV detection. Protocols that used PCR on serum detected the PRRSV introduction earlier than protocols that used PCR on semen, and these were earlier than those that used ELISA on serum. The most intensive protocol evaluated (testing 60 boars 3 times a week by PCR on serum) would need 13 days to detect 95% of the PRRSV introductions. These results support field observations, suggesting that an intensive monitoring protocol needs to be in place in a boar stud to quickly detect a PRRSV introduction.

  1. Reproduction of consistent pulse-waveform changes using a computational model of the cerebral circulatory system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, Mark; He, Xing; Gonzalez, Nestor; Vespa, Paul; DiStefano, Joe; Hu, Xiao

    2014-03-01

    Due to the inaccessibility of the cranial vault, it is difficult to study cerebral blood flow dynamics directly. A mathematical model can be useful to study these dynamics. The model presented here is a novel combination of a one-dimensional fluid flow model representing the major vessels of the circle of Willis (CoW), with six individually parameterized auto-regulatory models of the distal vascular beds. This model has the unique ability to simulate high temporal resolution flow and velocity waveforms, amenable to pulse-waveform analysis, as well as sophisticated phenomena such as auto-regulation. Previous work with human patients has shown that vasodilation induced by CO2 inhalation causes 12 consistent pulse-waveform changes as measured by the morphological clustering and analysis of intracranial pressure algorithm. To validate this model, we simulated vasodilation and successfully reproduced 9 out of the 12 pulse-waveform changes. A subsequent sensitivity analysis found that these 12 pulse-waveform changes were most affected by the parameters associated with the shape of the smooth muscle tension response and vessel elasticity, providing insight into the physiological mechanisms responsible for observed changes in the pulse-waveform shape.

  2. Helical turbulent Prandtl number in the A model of passive vector advection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hnatič, M.; Zalom, P.

    2016-11-01

    Using the field theoretic renormalization group technique in the two-loop approximation, turbulent Prandtl numbers are obtained in the general A model of passive vector advected by fully developed turbulent velocity field with violation of spatial parity introduced via the continuous parameter ρ ranging from ρ =0 (no violation of spatial parity) to |ρ |=1 (maximum violation of spatial parity). Values of A represent a continuously adjustable parameter which governs the interaction structure of the model. In nonhelical environments, we demonstrate that A is restricted to the interval -1.723 ≤A ≤2.800 (rounded to 3 decimal places) in the two-loop order of the field theoretic model. However, when ρ >0.749 (rounded to 3 decimal places), the restrictions may be removed, which means that presence of helicity exerts a stabilizing effect onto the possible stationary regimes of the system. Furthermore, three physically important cases A ∈{-1 ,0 ,1 } are shown to lie deep within the allowed interval of A for all values of ρ . For the model of the linearized Navier-Stokes equations (A =-1 ) up to date unknown helical values of the turbulent Prandtl number have been shown to equal 1 regardless of parity violation. Furthermore, we have shown that interaction parameter A exerts strong influence on advection-diffusion processes in turbulent environments with broken spatial parity. By varying A continuously, we explain high stability of the kinematic MHD model (A =1 ) against helical effects as a result of its proximity to the A =0.912 (rounded to 3 decimal places) case where helical effects are completely suppressed. Contrary, for the physically important A =0 model, we show that it lies deep within the interval of models where helical effects cause the turbulent Prandtl number to decrease with |ρ | . We thus identify internal structure of interactions given by the parameter A , and not the vector character of the admixture itself being the dominant factor influencing

  3. Helical turbulent Prandtl number in the A model of passive vector advection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hnatič, M; Zalom, P

    2016-11-01

    Using the field theoretic renormalization group technique in the two-loop approximation, turbulent Prandtl numbers are obtained in the general A model of passive vector advected by fully developed turbulent velocity field with violation of spatial parity introduced via the continuous parameter ρ ranging from ρ=0 (no violation of spatial parity) to |ρ|=1 (maximum violation of spatial parity). Values of A represent a continuously adjustable parameter which governs the interaction structure of the model. In nonhelical environments, we demonstrate that A is restricted to the interval -1.723≤A≤2.800 (rounded to 3 decimal places) in the two-loop order of the field theoretic model. However, when ρ>0.749 (rounded to 3 decimal places), the restrictions may be removed, which means that presence of helicity exerts a stabilizing effect onto the possible stationary regimes of the system. Furthermore, three physically important cases A∈{-1,0,1} are shown to lie deep within the allowed interval of A for all values of ρ. For the model of the linearized Navier-Stokes equations (A=-1) up to date unknown helical values of the turbulent Prandtl number have been shown to equal 1 regardless of parity violation. Furthermore, we have shown that interaction parameter A exerts strong influence on advection-diffusion processes in turbulent environments with broken spatial parity. By varying A continuously, we explain high stability of the kinematic MHD model (A=1) against helical effects as a result of its proximity to the A=0.912 (rounded to 3 decimal places) case where helical effects are completely suppressed. Contrary, for the physically important A=0 model, we show that it lies deep within the interval of models where helical effects cause the turbulent Prandtl number to decrease with |ρ|. We thus identify internal structure of interactions given by the parameter A, and not the vector character of the admixture itself being the dominant factor influencing diffusion

  4. Resonance decay effect on conserved number fluctuations in a hadron resonance gas model

    CERN Document Server

    Mishra, D K; Netrakanti, P K; Mohanty, A K

    2016-01-01

    We study the effect of charged secondaries coming from resonance decay on the net-baryon, net-charge and net-strangeness fluctuations in high energy heavy-ion collisions within the hadron resonance gas (HRG) model. We emphasize the importance of including weak decays along with other resonance decays in the HRG, while comparing with the experimental observables. The effect of kinematic cuts on resonances and primordial particles on the conserved number fluctuations are also studied. The HRG model calculations with the inclusion of resonance decays and kinematical cuts are compared with the recent experimental data from STAR and PHENIX experiments. We find a good agreement between our model calculations and the experimental measurements for both net-proton and net-charge distributions.

  5. Effect of resonance decay on conserved number fluctuations in a hadron resonance gas model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, D. K.; Garg, P.; Netrakanti, P. K.; Mohanty, A. K.

    2016-07-01

    We study the effect of charged secondaries coming from resonance decay on the net-baryon, net-charge, and net-strangeness fluctuations in high-energy heavy-ion collisions within the hadron resonance gas (HRG) model. We emphasize the importance of including weak decays along with other resonance decays in the HRG, while comparing with the experimental observables. The effect of kinematic cuts on resonances and primordial particles on the conserved number fluctuations are also studied. The HRG model calculations with the inclusion of resonance decays and kinematical cuts are compared with the recent experimental data from STAR and PHENIX experiments. We find good agreement between our model calculations and the experimental measurements for both net-proton and net-charge distributions.

  6. Analysis of the thermomechanical inconsistency of some extended hydrodynamic models at high Knudsen number.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadzie, S Kokou; Reese, Jason M

    2012-04-01

    There are some hydrodynamic equations that, while their parent kinetic equation satisfies fundamental mechanical properties, appear themselves to violate mechanical or thermodynamic properties. This paper aims to shed some light on the source of this problem. Starting with diffusive volume hydrodynamic models, the microscopic temporal and spatial scales are first separated at the kinetic level from the macroscopic scales at the hydrodynamic level. Then, we consider Klimontovich's spatial stochastic version of the Boltzmann kinetic equation and show that, for small local Knudsen numbers, the stochastic term vanishes and the kinetic equation becomes the Boltzmann equation. The collision integral dominates in the small local Knudsen number regime, which is associated with the exact traditional continuum limit. We find a subdomain of the continuum range, which the conventional Knudsen number classification does not account for appropriately. In this subdomain, it is possible to obtain a fully mechanically consistent volume (or mass) diffusion model that satisfies the second law of thermodynamics on the grounds of extended non-local-equilibrium thermodynamics.

  7. Fermion number conservation and two Higgs doublet models without tree level flavour changing neutral currents

    CERN Document Server

    Joshipura, Anjan S

    2010-01-01

    The charged fermion mass matrices are always invariant under $U(1)^3$ symmetry linked to the fermion number transformation. A class of two Higgs doublet models (2HDM) can be identified by requiring that the definition of this symmetry in an arbitrary weak basis be independent of Higgs parameters such as the ratio of the Higgs vacuum expectation values. The tree level flavour changing neutral currents normally present in 2HDM are absent in this class of models but unlike the type I or type II Higgs doublet models, the charged Higgs couplings in these models contain additional flavour dependent CP violating phases. These phases can account for the recent hints of the beyond standard model CP violation in the $B_d$ and $B_s$ mixing. In particular, there is a range of parameters in which new phases do not contribute to the $K$ meson CP violation but give identical new physics contribution to the $B_d$ and $B_s$ meson mixing. Specific model realizations of the above scenario are briefly discussed.

  8. A Novel Letrozole Model Recapitulates Both the Reproductive and Metabolic Phenotypes of Polycystic Ovary Syndrome in Female Mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauffman, Alexander S; Thackray, Varykina G; Ryan, Genevieve E; Tolson, Kristen P; Glidewell-Kenney, Christine A; Semaan, Sheila J; Poling, Matthew C; Iwata, Nahoko; Breen, Kellie M; Duleba, Antoni J; Stener-Victorin, Elisabet; Shimasaki, Shunichi; Webster, Nicholas J; Mellon, Pamela L

    2015-09-01

    Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) pathophysiology is poorly understood, due partly to lack of PCOS animal models fully recapitulating this complex disorder. Recently, a PCOS rat model using letrozole (LET), a nonsteroidal aromatase inhibitor, mimicked multiple PCOS phenotypes, including metabolic features absent in other models. Given the advantages of using genetic and transgenic mouse models, we investigated whether LET produces a similar PCOS phenotype in mice. Pubertal female C57BL/6N mice were treated for 5 wk with LET, which resulted in increased serum testosterone and normal diestrus levels of estradiol, similar to the hyperandrogenemia and follicular phase estrogen levels of PCOS women. As in PCOS, ovaries from LET mice were larger, polycystic, and lacked corpora lutea versus controls. Most LET females were acyclic, and all were infertile. LET females displayed elevated serum LH levels and higher Lhb mRNA in the pituitary. In contrast, serum FSH and Fshb were significantly reduced in LET females, demonstrating differential effects on gonadotropins, as in PCOS. Within the ovary, LET females had higher Cyp17, Cyp19, and Fsh receptor mRNA expression. In the hypothalamus, LET females had higher kisspeptin receptor mRNA expression but lower progesterone receptor mRNA levels. LET females also gained more weight than controls, had increased abdominal adiposity and adipocyte size, elevated adipose inflammatory mRNA levels, and impaired glucose tolerance, mirroring the metabolic phenotype in PCOS women. This is the first report of a LET paradigm in mice that recapitulates both reproductive and metabolic PCOS phenotypes and will be useful to genetically probe the PCOS condition.

  9. The increase in the number of astrocytes in the total cerebral ischemia model in rats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kudabayeva, M.; Kisel, A.; Chernysheva, G.; Smol'yakova, V.; Plotnikov, M.; Khodanovich, M.

    2017-08-01

    Astrocytes are the most abundant cell class in the CNS. Astrocytic therapies have a huge potential for neuronal repair after stroke. The majority of brain stroke studies address the damage to neurons. Modern studies turn to the usage of morphological and functional changes in astroglial cells after stroke in regenerative medicine. Our study is focused on the changes in the number of astrocytes in the hippocampus (where new glia cells divide) after brain ischemia. Ischemia was modeled by occlusion of tr. brachiocephalicus, a. subclavia sin., a. carotis communis sin. Astrocytes were determined using immunohistochemical labeling with anti GFAP antibody. We found out that the number of astrocytes increased on the 10th and 30th days after stroke in the CA1, CA2 fields, the granular layer of dentate gyrus (GrDG) and hilus. The morphology of astrocytes became reactive in these regions. Therefore, our results revealed long-term reactive astrogliosis in the hippocampus region after total ischemia in rats.

  10. Modeling energy and reproductive costs in caribou exposed to low flying military jet aircraft

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B.R. Luick

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available We used simulation modeling to estimate the effect of low-flying military jet aircraft on the productivity of caribou. The base model (CARIBOU, CWS Whitehorse, Yukon Territory uses daily intake and expenditure of energy to assess the condition of female caribou throughout the annual cycle. The activity budget of the model caribou was adjusted based on field observations of responses to noise disturbance. A subroutine was added that predicted the likelihood of conception based on fall body fat weight. Caribou responses to overflights were evaluated by equipping free-ranging caribou with radio collars and activity sensors that could distinguish between resting and active periods. Collared animals were exposed to 110 overflights by A-10, F-15 and F- 16 jet aircraft during late-winter, post-calving and the insect season. Noise exposure levels for individual animals either were measured directly with collar-mounted dosimeters or were estimated based on the proximity of the caribou to the aircraft during the overflight. A Time-averaged Sound Level (LT was calculated from the total daily noise exposure for each animal and linear regression was used to evaluate the influence of daily noise exposure on daily hours spent resting. Results of these analyses then were used to modify the time budgets in the CARIBOU model. That is, if time spent resting declined, then time spent in the two rest classes (lying and standing were proportionately redistributed into the three active classes (foraging, walking and running. Model simulations indicated that caribou increased forage intake in response to increased noise exposure, but it also predicted that increased noise exposure would cause a reduced accumulation of body fat. Because body fat in fall has successfully been used to predict the probability of pregnancy (see Gerhart et al, 1993, this relationship was used in the model. Preliminary model simulations indicate that increased noise exposure decreases the

  11. Percolation Model of Insider Threats to Assess the Optimum Number of Rules

    CERN Document Server

    Kepner, Jeremy; Michaleas, Pete

    2014-01-01

    Rules, regulations, and policies are the basis of civilized society and are used to coordinate the activities of individuals who have a variety of goals and purposes. History has taught that over-regulation (too many rules) makes it difficult to compete and under-regulation (too few rules) can lead to crisis. This implies an optimal number of rules that avoids these two extremes. Rules create boundaries that define the latitude an individual has to perform their activities. This paper creates a Toy Model of a work environment and examines it with respect to the latitude provided to a normal individual and the latitude provided to an insider threat. Simulations with the Toy Model illustrate four regimes with respect to an insider threat: under-regulated, possibly optimal, tipping-point, and over-regulated. These regimes depend up the number of rules (N) and the minimum latitude (Lmin) required by a normal individual to carry out their activities. The Toy Model is then mapped onto the standard 1D Percolation Mo...

  12. A NOVEL SLIGHTLY COMPRESSIBLE MODEL FOR LOW MACH NUMBER PERFECT GAS FLOW CALCULATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    邓小刚; 庄逢甘

    2002-01-01

    By analyzing the characteristics of low Mach number perfect gas flows, a novel Slightly Compressible Model (SCM) for low Mach number perfect gas flows is derived. In view of numerical calculations, this model is proved very efficient,for it is kept within the p-v frame but does not have to satisfy the time consuming divergence-free condition in order to get the incompressible Navier-Stokes equation solutions. Writing the equations in the form of conservation laws, we have derived the characteristic systems which are necessary for numerical calculations. A cellcentered finite-volume method with flux difference upwind-biased schemes is used for the equation solutions and a new Exact Newton Relaxation (ENR) implicit method is developed. Various computed results are presented to validate the present model.Laminar flow solutions over a circular cylinder with wake developing and vortex shedding are presented. Results for inviscid flow over a sphere are compared in excellent agreement with the exact analytic incompressible solution. Three-dimensional viscous flow solutions over sphere and prolate spheroid are also calculated and compared well with experiments and other incompressible solutions. Finally, good convergent performaces are shown for sphere viscous flows.

  13. Airfoil Aeroelastic Flutter Analysis Based on Modified Leishman-Beddoes Model at Low Mach Number

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHAO Song; ZHU Qinghua; ZHANG Chenglin; NI Xianping

    2011-01-01

    Based on modified Leishman-Beddoes(L-B)state space model at low Mach number(lower than 0.3),the airfoil aeroelastic system is presented in this paper.The main modifications for L-B model include a new dynamic stall criterion and revisions of normal force and pitching moment coefficient.The bifurcation diagrams,the limit cycle oscillation (LCO)phase plane plots and the time domain response figures are applied to investigating the stall flutter bifurcation behavior of airfoil aeroelastic systems with symmetry or asymmetry.It is shown that the symmetric periodical oscillation happens after subcritical bifurcation caused by dynamic stall,and the asymmetric periodical oscillation,which is caused by the interaction of dynamic stall and static divergence,only happens in the airfoil aeroelastic system with asymmetry.Validations of the modified L-B model and the airfoil aeroelastic system are presented with the experimental airload data of NACA0012 and OA207 and experimental stall flutter data of NACA0012 respectively.Results demonstrate that the airfoil aeroelastic system presented in this paper is effective and accurate,which can be applied to the investigation of airfoil stall flutter at low Mach number.

  14. Data and simulation modeling to determine the estimated number of primary care beds in Oklahoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulat, P S; Foote, B L; Kasap, S; Splinter, G L; Lucas, M K

    1999-05-01

    Growth in managed care has resulted in an increased need for studies in health care planning. The article focuses on the estimated number of primary care beds needed in the state to provide quality services to all Oklahoma residents. Based on the 1996 population estimations for Oklahoma and its distribution to the 77 counties, a space-filling approach is used to determine 46 service areas, each of which will provide primary care service to its area population. Service areas are constructed such that residents of an area are within an acceptable distance to a primary care provider in the area. A simulation model is developed to determine the number of primary care beds needed in each service area. Statistical analysis on actual hospital data is used to determine the distributions of inpatient flow and length of stay. The simulation model is validated for acute care hospitals before application to the service areas. Sensitivity analysis on model input parameter values is performed to determine their effect on primary care bed calculations. The effect of age distribution on the bed requirement is also studied. The results of this study will assist the Oklahoma Health Care Authority in the development of sound health care policy decisions.

  15. A number-projected model with generalized pairing interaction in application to rotating nuclei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Satula, W. [Warsaw Univ. (Poland)]|[Joint Institute for Heavy Ion Research, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)]|[Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)]|[Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden); Wyss, R. [Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1996-12-31

    A cranked mean-field model that takes into account both T=1 and T=0 pairing interactions is presented. The like-particle pairing interaction is described by means of a standard seniority force. The neutron-proton channel includes simultaneously correlations among particles moving in time reversed orbits (T=1) and identical orbits (T=0). The coupling between different pairing channels and nuclear rotation is taken into account selfconsistently. Approximate number-projection is included by means of the Lipkin-Nogami method. The transitions between different pairing phases are discussed as a function of neutron/proton excess, T{sub z}, and rotational frequency, {Dirac_h}{omega}.

  16. Modelling the Fluid Mechanics of Cilia and Flagella in Reproduction and Development

    CERN Document Server

    Montenegro-Johnson, Thomas D; Smith, David J; Loghin, Daniel; Blake, John R

    2013-01-01

    Cilia and flagella are actively bending slender organelles, performing functions such as motility, feeding and embryonic symmetry breaking. We review the mechanics of viscous-dominated microscale flow, including time-reversal symmetry, drag anisotropy of slender bodies, and wall effects. We focus on the fundamental force singularity, higher order multipoles, and the method of images, providing physical insight and forming a basis for computational approaches. Two biological problems are then considered in more detail: (1) left-right symmetry breaking flow in the node, a microscopic structure in developing vertebrate embryos, and (2) motility of microswimmers through non-Newtonian fluids. Our model of the embryonic node reveals how particle transport associated with morphogenesis is modulated by the gradual emergence of cilium posterior tilt. Our model of swimming makes use of force distributions within a body-conforming finite element framework, allowing the solution of nonlinear inertialess Carreau flow. We ...

  17. Reproduction of superior sagittal sinus animal model by bypass transplantation of biomaterial graft

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing-yong LUO

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective To establish the beagles model of superior sagittal sinus bypass graft,and explore the feasibility of reconstruction of superior sagittal sinus with biomaterials using this model.Methods Eight adult male beagles(weight: 12.5-22.0kg were involved in the present study.The superior sagittal sinus was exposed and blocked via bone window,and then anastomosed side-to-end to the biomaterial graft under the dedicated microscope of neurosurgery surgery,expectant treatment such as anti-inflammatory was given for the animals.The digital subtraction venography(DSV and color Doppler flow imaging(CDFI of superior sagittal sinus were performed in 1,2,4 and 8 weeks after the operation.Eight weeks after the operation,all the animals were sacrificed and the material graft was examined histologically.Results The DSV and CDFI of superior sagittal sinus showed that the stomas of 2 beagles were with slight stenosis and high flow velocity,of 1 beagle with small leakage and low flow velocity,while of other 5 beagles were normal.The histological examination showed endothelial cells were growing on the graft and superior sagittal sinus,and crawling toward the lumen of graft 8 weeks after the operation.Conclusion The beagles model of superior sagittal sinus bypass graft was established successfully.The short-term effect of the model was satisfactory,while further work should be performed to determine the long-term effects.

  18. Specificity of Metabolic Syndrome Model Reproduction at Pubertal and Adult Male Rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bondarenko Larysa Borysivna

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: Comparative estimation of metabolic syndrome (MS mediated changes of blood, cardio-vascular system, liver, pancreas and kidneys morphologic structure in adult and pubertal rats. Materials and Methods: Wistar albino male rats of two age categories (young animals of 21 days age (50-70g and adults (160-180g were divided into 4 groups (8 animals in each: 1 - Control 1 (intact young rats; 2 - Control 2 (intact adult rats; 3 - MS3 (young rats with MS and 4 - MS4 (adult rats with MS. The metabolic syndrome model was induced by full replacement of drinking water with 20% fructose solution (200g/l. After 60 days of MS modeling, determination of rat hematological and serum biochemical parameters, glucose tolerance, blood pressure, liver rates of lipid peroxydation and chromatin DNA fragmentation, as well as morphological macroscopic and microscopic studies were carried out. Results: In pubertal rats, glucose tolerance, hypertension, blood clotting disturbances, DNAfragmentation and lipid peroxydation rates were affected more profoundly, while mature rats showed greater Pseudo Pelger-Huet anomaly development, serum cholesterol and lipoproteins increases, liver and kidney morphology changes. Conclusions: Our current data combined with previous results of other authors allow us to conclude that an animal model (Wistar rats of MS is quite easily obtained in a full age range, from juvenile to mature rats.

  19. Equivalent Alkane Carbon Number of Live Crude Oil: A Predictive Model Based on Thermodynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Creton Benoit

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available We took advantage of recently published works and new experimental data to propose a model for the prediction of the Equivalent Alkane Carbon Number of live crude oil (EACNlo for EOR processes. The model necessitates the a priori knowledge of reservoir pressure and temperature conditions as well as the initial gas to oil ratio. Additionally, some required volumetric properties for hydrocarbons were predicted using an equation of state. The model has been validated both on our own experimental data and data from the literature. These various case studies cover broad ranges of conditions in terms of API gravity index, gas to oil ratio, reservoir pressure and temperature, and composition of representative gas. The predicted EACNlo values reasonably agree with experimental EACN values, i.e. determined by comparison with salinity scans for a series of n-alkanes from nC8 to nC18. The model has been used to generate high pressure high temperature data, showing competing effects of the gas to oil ratio, pressure and temperature. The proposed model allows to strongly narrow down the spectrum of possibilities in terms of EACNlo values, and thus a more rational use of equipments.

  20. Assisted reproductive technologies in the common marmoset: an integral species for developing nonhuman primate models of human diseases

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kropp, Jenna; Di Marzo, Andrea; Golos, Thaddeus

    2017-01-01

    .... Callithrix jacchus, or the common marmoset, is a New World, nonhuman primate species that exhibits great reproductive fitness in captivity with an ovarian cycle that can be easily managed with pharmacological agents...

  1. Women Reproductive Rights in India: Prospective Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Srinivas Kosgi

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Reproductive rights were established as a subset of the human rights. Parents have a basic human right to determine freely and responsibly the number and the spacing of their children. Issues regarding the reproductive rights are vigorously contested, regardless of the population’s socioeconomic level, religion or culture. Following review article discusses reproductive rights with respect to Indian context focusing on socio economic and cultural aspects. Also discusses sensitization of government and judicial agencies in protecting the reproductive rights with special focus on the protecting the reproductive rights of people with disability (mental illness and mental retardation.

  2. Improved pump turbine transient behaviour prediction using a Thoma number-dependent hillchart model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manderla, M.; Kiniger, K.; Koutnik, J.

    2014-03-01

    Water hammer phenomena are important issues for high head hydro power plants. Especially, if several reversible pump-turbines are connected to the same waterways there may be strong interactions between the hydraulic machines. The prediction and coverage of all relevant load cases is challenging and difficult using classical simulation models. On the basis of a recent pump-storage project, dynamic measurements motivate an improved modeling approach making use of the Thoma number dependency of the actual turbine behaviour. The proposed approach is validated for several transient scenarios and turns out to increase correlation between measurement and simulation results significantly. By applying a fully automated simulation procedure broad operating ranges can be covered which provides a consistent insight into critical load case scenarios. This finally allows the optimization of the closing strategy and hence the overall power plant performance.

  3. Blocking probability in the hose-model optical VPN with different number of wavelengths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roslyakov, Alexander V.

    2017-04-01

    Connection setup with guaranteed quality of service (QoS) in the optical virtual private network (OVPN) is a major goal for the network providers. In order to support this we propose a QoS based OVPN connection set up mechanism over WDM network to the end customer. The proposed WDM network model can be specified in terms of QoS parameter such as blocking probability. We estimated this QoS parameter based on the hose-model OVPN. In this mechanism the OVPN connections also can be created or deleted according to the availability of the wavelengths in the optical path. In this paper we have considered the impact of the number of wavelengths on the computation of blocking probability. The goal of the work is to dynamically provide a best OVPN connection during frequent arrival of connection requests with QoS requirements.

  4. Localized Majorana-Like Modes in a Number-Conserving Setting: An Exactly Solvable Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iemini, Fernando; Mazza, Leonardo; Rossini, Davide; Fazio, Rosario; Diehl, Sebastian

    2015-10-09

    In this Letter we present, in a number conserving framework, a model of interacting fermions in a two-wire geometry supporting nonlocal zero-energy Majorana-like edge excitations. The model has an exactly solvable line, on varying the density of fermions, described by a topologically nontrivial ground state wave function. Away from the exactly solvable line we study the system by means of the numerical density matrix renormalization group. We characterize its topological properties through the explicit calculation of a degenerate entanglement spectrum and of the braiding operators which are exponentially localized at the edges. Furthermore, we establish the presence of a gap in its single particle spectrum while the Hamiltonian is gapless, and compute the correlations between the edge modes as well as the superfluid correlations. The topological phase covers a sizable portion of the phase diagram, the solvable line being one of its boundaries.

  5. Supersaturation calculation in large eddy simulation models for prediction of the droplet number concentration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Thouron

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available A new parameterization scheme is described for calculation of supersaturation in LES models that specifically aims at the simulation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN activation and prediction of the droplet number concentration. The scheme is tested against current parameterizations in the framework of the Meso-NH LES model. It is shown that the saturation adjustment scheme based on parameterizations of CCN activation in a convective updraft over estimates the droplet concentration in the cloud core while it cannot simulate cloud top supersaturation production due to mixing between cloudy and clear air. A supersaturation diagnostic scheme mitigates these artefacts by accounting for the presence of already condensed water in the cloud core but it is too sensitive to supersaturation fluctuations at cloud top and produces spurious CCN activation during cloud top mixing. The proposed pseudo-prognostic scheme shows performance similar to the diagnostic one in the cloud core but significantly mitigates CCN activation at cloud top.

  6. Model for modulated and chaotic waves in zero-Prandtl-number rotating convection

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Alaka Das; Krishna Kumar

    2008-09-01

    The effects of time-periodic forcing in a few-mode model for zero-Prandtl-number convection with rigid body rotation is investigated. The time-periodic modulation of the rotation rate about the vertical axis and gravity modulation are considered separately. In the presence of periodic variation of the rotation rate, the model shows modulated waves with a band of frequencies. The increase in the external forcing amplitude widens the frequency band of the modulated waves, which ultimately leads to temporally chaotic waves. The gravity modulation, on the other hand, with small frequencies, destroys the quasiperiodic waves at the onset and leads to chaos through intermittency. The spectral power density shows more power to a band of frequencies in the case of periodic modulation of the rotation rate. In the case of externally imposed vertical vibration, the spectral density has more power at lower frequencies. The two types of forcing show different routes to chaos.

  7. Botryllus schlosseri: a model ascidian for the study of asexual reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manni, L; Zaniolo, G; Cima, F; Burighel, P; Ballarin, L

    2007-02-01

    Botryllus schlosseri, a cosmopolitan colonial ascidian reared in the laboratory for more than 50 years, reproduces both sexually and asexually and is used as a model organism for studying a variety of biological problems. Colonies are formed of numerous, genetically identical individuals (zooids) and undergo cyclical generation changes in which the adult zooids die and are replaced by their maturing buds. Because the progression of the colonial life cycle is intimately correlated with blastogenesis, a shared staging method of bud development is required to compare data coming from different laboratories. With the present review, we aim (1) to introduce B. schlosseri as a valuable chordate model to study various biological problems and, especially, sexual and asexual development; (2) to offer a detailed description of bud development up to adulthood and the attainment of sexual maturity; (3) to re-examine Sabbadin's (1955) staging method and re-propose it as a simple tool for in vivo recognition of the main morphogenetic events and recurrent changes in the blastogenetic cycle, as it refers to the developmental stages of buds and adults.

  8. Modelling Growth and Partitioning of Annual Above-Ground Vegetative and Reproductive Biomass of Grapevine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meggio, Franco; Vendrame, Nadia; Maniero, Giovanni; Pitacco, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    In the current climate change scenarios, both agriculture and forestry inherently may act as carbon sinks and consequently can play a key role in limiting global warming. An urgent need exists to understand which land uses and land resource types have the greatest potential to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to global change. A common believe is that agricultural fields cannot be net carbon sinks due to many technical inputs and repeated disturbances of upper soil layers that all contribute to a substantial loss both of the old and newly-synthesized organic matter. Perennial tree crops (vineyards and orchards), however, can behave differently: they grow a permanent woody structure, stand undisturbed in the same field for decades, originate a woody pruning debris, and are often grass-covered. In this context, reliable methods for quantifying and modelling emissions and carbon sequestration are required. Carbon stock changes are calculated by multiplying the difference in oven dry weight of biomass increments and losses with the appropriate carbon fraction. These data are relatively scant, and more information is needed on vineyard management practices and how they impact vineyard C sequestration and GHG emissions in order to generate an accurate vineyard GHG footprint. During the last decades, research efforts have been made for estimating the vineyard carbon budget and its allocation pattern since it is crucial to better understand how grapevines control the distribution of acquired resources in response to variation in environmental growth conditions and agronomic practices. The objective of the present study was to model and compare the dynamics of current year's above-ground biomass among four grapevine varieties. Trials were carried out over three growing seasons in field conditions. The non-linear extra-sums-of-squares method demonstrated to be a feasible way of growth models comparison to statistically assess significant differences among

  9. Malaria's missing number: calculating the human component of R0 by a within-host mechanistic model of Plasmodium falciparum infection and transmission.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geoffrey L Johnston

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Human infection by malarial parasites of the genus Plasmodium begins with the bite of an infected Anopheles mosquito. Current estimates place malaria mortality at over 650,000 individuals each year, mostly in African children. Efforts to reduce disease burden can benefit from the development of mathematical models of disease transmission. To date, however, comprehensive modeling of the parameters defining human infectivity to mosquitoes has remained elusive. Here, we describe a mechanistic within-host model of Plasmodium falciparum infection in humans and pathogen transmission to the mosquito vector. Our model incorporates the entire parasite lifecycle, including the intra-erythrocytic asexual forms responsible for disease, the onset of symptoms, the development and maturation of intra-erythrocytic gametocytes that are transmissible to Anopheles mosquitoes, and human-to-mosquito infectivity. These model components were parameterized from malaria therapy data and other studies to simulate individual infections, and the ensemble of outputs was found to reproduce the full range of patient responses to infection. Using this model, we assessed human infectivity over the course of untreated infections and examined the effects in relation to transmission intensity, expressed by the basic reproduction number R0 (defined as the number of secondary cases produced by a single typical infection in a completely susceptible population. Our studies predict that net human-to-mosquito infectivity from a single non-immune individual is on average equal to 32 fully infectious days. This estimate of mean infectivity is equivalent to calculating the human component of malarial R0 . We also predict that mean daily infectivity exceeds five percent for approximately 138 days. The mechanistic framework described herein, made available as stand-alone software, will enable investigators to conduct detailed studies into theories of malaria control, including the effects of

  10. Inferring causal relationships between reproductive and metabolic health disorders and production traits in first-lactation US Holsteins using recursive models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhakal, K; Tiezzi, F; Clay, J S; Maltecca, C

    2015-04-01

    Health disorders in dairy cows have a substantial effect on the profitability of a dairy enterprise because of loss in milk sales, culling of unhealthy cows, and replacement costs. Complex relationships exist between health disorders and production traits. Understanding the causal structures among these traits may help us disentangle these complex relationships. The principal objective of this study was to use producer-recorded data to explore phenotypic and genetic relationships among reproductive and metabolic health disorders and production traits in first-lactation US Holsteins. A total of 77,004 first-lactation daughters' records of 2,183 sires were analyzed using recursive models. Health data contained information on reproductive health disorders [retained placenta (RP); metritis (METR)] and metabolic health disorders [ketosis (KETO); displaced abomasum (DA)]. Production traits included mean milk yield (MY) from early lactation (mean MY from 6 to 60 d in milk and from 61 to 120 d in milk), peak milk yield (PMY), day in milk of peak milk yield (PeakD), and lactation persistency (LP). Three different sets of traits were analyzed in which recursive effects from each health disorder on culling, recursive effects of one health disorder on another health disorder and on MY, and recursive effects of each health disorder on production traits, including PeakD, PMY, and LP, were assumed. Different recursive Gaussian-threshold and threshold models were implemented in a Bayesian framework. Estimates of the structural coefficients obtained between health disorders and culling were positive; on the liability scale, the structural coefficients ranged from 0.929 to 1.590, confirming that the presence of a health disorder increased culling. Positive recursive effects of RP to METR (0.117) and of KETO to DA (0.122) were estimated, whereas recursive effects from health disorders to production traits were negligible in all cases. Heritability estimates of health disorders ranged

  11. Reproduction of a new inferior vena cava thrombosis model and study of the evolutionary process of thrombolysis in rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian FU

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Objective To investigate the reproduction of a new model of thrombosis of inferior vena cava (IVC, and explore the natural process of thrombolysis and its mechanism in rats. Methods Forty-eight SD rats were randomly classified into experimental group and control group. In the experimental group, the lumen of the vena cava was blocked by about 80%-90% with a ligature of IVC below the left renal vein, and then the animals were redivided into three subgroups (n=12, each. In group A, the IVC endothelium was damaged and its tributaries were ligated. In group B, the IVC endothelium was damaged and its tributaries were not ligated. In group C, no damage was done to the endothelium of the IVC but all its tributaries were ligated. A sham-operated group served as control. The length and weight of the vinous thrombus and the percentage of the IVC luminal area were compared after operation to determine the optimum animal model of venous thrombosis. According to the best mode to establish the model, the thrombus specimens were collected and detected by HE and Masson staining, and the ED-1 expressions were examined by immunohistochemical staining after thrombus formation in 30 rats. The natural evolution of intravenous thrombolysis was analyzed dynamically and the cell types involved in this process were observed. Results Gross observation showed that the experimental group was successfully induced thrombus formation. The thrombus length and weight in group A was significantly higher than that in group B and group C, and no difference between group B and C. The thrombus area in group A was significantly higher than that in groups B and group C, which identified the group A was the optimal model group of venous thrombosis. In the group reproduced by the best mode of the model, HE and Masson staining results showed that new capillaries and the components of collagen and extracellular matrix increased gradually with the passage of time in the process of

  12. Network modeling of the transcriptional effects of copy number aberrations in glioblastoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jörnsten, Rebecka; Abenius, Tobias; Kling, Teresia; Schmidt, Linnéa; Johansson, Erik; Nordling, Torbjörn E M; Nordlander, Bodil; Sander, Chris; Gennemark, Peter; Funa, Keiko; Nilsson, Björn; Lindahl, Linda; Nelander, Sven

    2011-01-01

    DNA copy number aberrations (CNAs) are a hallmark of cancer genomes. However, little is known about how such changes affect global gene expression. We develop a modeling framework, EPoC (Endogenous Perturbation analysis of Cancer), to (1) detect disease-driving CNAs and their effect on target mRNA expression, and to (2) stratify cancer patients into long- and short-term survivors. Our method constructs causal network models of gene expression by combining genome-wide DNA- and RNA-level data. Prognostic scores are obtained from a singular value decomposition of the networks. By applying EPoC to glioblastoma data from The Cancer Genome Atlas consortium, we demonstrate that the resulting network models contain known disease-relevant hub genes, reveal interesting candidate hubs, and uncover predictors of patient survival. Targeted validations in four glioblastoma cell lines support selected predictions, and implicate the p53-interacting protein Necdin in suppressing glioblastoma cell growth. We conclude that large-scale network modeling of the effects of CNAs on gene expression may provide insights into the biology of human cancer. Free software in MATLAB and R is provided. PMID:21525872

  13. Hadron Resonance Gas Model for An Arbitrarily Large Number of Different Hard-Core Radii

    CERN Document Server

    Oliinychenko, D R; Sagun, V V; Ivanytskyi, A I; Yakimenko, I P; Nikonov, E G; Taranenko, A V; Zinovjev, G M

    2016-01-01

    We develop a novel formulation of the hadron-resonance gas model which, besides a hard-core repulsion, explicitly accounts for the surface tension induced by the interaction between the particles. Such an equation of state allows us to go beyond the Van der Waals approximation for any number of different hard-core radii. A comparison with the Carnahan-Starling equation of state shows that the new model is valid for packing fractions 0.2-0.22, while the usual Van der Waals model is inapplicable at packing fractions above 0.11-0.12. Moreover, it is shown that the equation of state with induced surface tension is softer than the one of hard spheres and remains causal at higher particle densities. The great advantage of our model is that there are only two equations to be solved and it does not depend on the various values of the hard-core radii used for different hadronic resonances. Using this novel equation of state we obtain a high-quality fit of the ALICE hadron multiplicities measured at center-of-mass ener...

  14. Implementing the Serial Number Tracking model in telecommunications: a case study of Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neven Polovina

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The case study describes the implementation of the SNT (Serial Number Tracking model in an integrated information system, as a means of business support in a Croatian mobile telecommunications company. Objectives: The goal was to show how to make the best practice of the SNT implementation in the telecommunication industry, with referencing to problems which have arisen during the implementation. Methods/Approach: the case study approach was used based on the documentation about the SNT model and the business intelligence system in the Croatian mobile telecommunications company. Results: Economic aspects of the effectiveness of the SNT model are described and confirmed based on actual tangible and predominantly on intangible benefits. Conclusions: Advantages of the SNT model are multiple: operating costs for storage and transit of goods were reduced, accuracy of deliveries and physical inventory was improved; a new source of information for the business intelligence system was obtained; operating processes in the distribution of goods were advanced; transit insurance costs decreased and there were fewer cases of fraudulent behaviour.

  15. Animal Models of Psychiatric Disorders That Reflect Human Copy Number Variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Nomura

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of genetic technologies has led to the identification of several copy number variations (CNVs in the human genome. Genome rearrangements affect dosage-sensitive gene expression in normal brain development. There is strong evidence associating human psychiatric disorders, especially autism spectrum disorders (ASDs and schizophrenia to genetic risk factors and accumulated CNV risk loci. Deletions in 1q21, 3q29, 15q13, 17p12, and 22q11, as well as duplications in 16p11, 16p13, and 15q11-13 have been reported as recurrent CNVs in ASD and/or schizophrenia. Chromosome engineering can be a useful technology to reflect human diseases in animal models, especially CNV-based psychiatric disorders. This system, based on the Cre/loxP strategy, uses large chromosome rearrangement such as deletion, duplication, inversion, and translocation. Although it is hard to reflect human pathophysiology in animal models, some aspects of molecular pathways, brain anatomy, cognitive, and behavioral phenotypes can be addressed. Some groups have created animal models of psychiatric disorders, ASD, and schizophrenia, which are based on human CNV. These mouse models display some brain anatomical and behavioral abnormalities, providing insight into human neuropsychiatric disorders that will contribute to novel drug screening for these devastating disorders.

  16. A multi-model assessment of the impact of sea spray geoengineering on cloud droplet number

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. J. Pringle

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Artificially increasing the albedo of marine boundary layer clouds by the mechanical emission of sea spray aerosol has been proposed as a geoengineering technique to slow the warming caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases. A previous global model study (Korhonen et al., 2010 found that only modest increases (< 20% and sometimes even decreases in cloud drop number (CDN concentrations would result from emission scenarios calculated using a windspeed dependent geoengineering flux parameterisation. Here we extend that work to examine the conditions under which decreases in CDN can occur, and use three independent global models to quantify maximum achievable CDN changes. We find that decreases in CDN can occur when at least three of the following conditions are met: the injected particle number is < 100 cm−3, the injected diameter is > 250–300 nm, the background aerosol loading is large (≥ 150 cm−3 and the in-cloud updraught velocity is low (< 0.2 m s−1. With lower background loadings and/or increased updraught velocity, significant increases in CDN can be achieved. None of the global models predict a decrease in CDN as a result of geoengineering, although there is considerable diversity in the calculated efficiency of geoengineering, which arises from the diversity in the simulated marine aerosol distributions. All three models show a small dependence of geoengineering efficiency on the injected particle size and the geometric standard deviation of the injected mode. However, the achievability of significant cloud drop enhancements is strongly dependent on the cloud updraught speed. With an updraught speed of 0.1 m s−1 a global mean CDN of 375 cm−3 (previously estimated to cancel the forcing caused by CO2 doubling is achievable in only about 50% of grid boxes which have > 50% cloud cover, irrespective of the amount of aerosol injected. But at stronger updraft speeds (0

  17. Selective Reproduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Mette N.

    2015-01-01

    This article employs a multi-species perspective in investigating how life's worth is negotiated in the field of neonatology in Denmark. It does so by comparing decision-making processes about human infants in the Danish neonatal intensive care unit with those associated with piglets who serve as...... as expectations within linear or predictive time frames are key markers in both sites. Exploring selective reproductive processes across human infants and research piglets can help us uncover aspects of the cultural production of viability that we would not otherwise see or acknowledge....

  18. Global dynamics for a delayed hepatitis C virus infection model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingying Zhao

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a delay Hepatitis C virus infection model with Beddington-DeAngelis functional response. We first introduce five reproduction numbers, and then show that the system has five possible equilibria depended on the reproductive numbers. By constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals, the global dynamics for the five equilibria of the model is completely determined by the five reproductive numbers.

  19. Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar; Sadeghian, Marzieh; Kangavari, Mehdi; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Gholizadeh, Yavar

    2013-01-01

    Background: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. Results: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P < 0.05). Most of the accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. Conclusion: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year. PMID:26120405

  20. Wall-modeled large-eddy simulation of transonic airfoil buffet at high Reynolds number

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukushima, Yuma; Kawai, Soshi

    2016-11-01

    In this study, we conduct the wall-modeled large-eddy simulation (LES) of transonic buffet phenomena over the OAT15A supercritical airfoil at high Reynolds number. The transonic airfoil buffet involves shock-turbulent boundary layer interactions and shock vibration associated with the flow separation downstream of the shock wave. The wall-modeled LES developed by Kawai and Larsson PoF (2012) is tuned on the K supercomputer for high-fidelity simulation. We first show the capability of the present wall-modeled LES on the transonic airfoil buffet phenomena and then investigate the detailed flow physics of unsteadiness of shock waves and separated boundary layer interaction phenomena. We also focus on the sustaining mechanism of the buffet phenomena, including the source of the pressure waves propagated from the trailing edge and the interactions between the shock wave and the generated sound waves. This work was supported in part by MEXT as a social and scientific priority issue to be tackled by using post-K computer. Computer resources of the K computer was provided by the RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science (Project ID: hp150254).

  1. Female Reproductive System

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Reproductive System en español Sistema reproductor femenino About Human Reproduction All living things reproduce. Reproduction — the process by ... male and female reproductive systems are essential for reproduction. The female needs a ... like other organisms, pass certain characteristics of themselves ...

  2. Importance of wave-number dependence of Biot numbers in one-sided models of evaporative Marangoni instability: Horizontal layer and spherical droplet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machrafi, H.; Rednikov, A.; Colinet, P.; Dauby, P. C.

    2015-05-01

    A one-sided model of the thermal Marangoni instability owing to evaporation into an inert gas is developed. Two configurations are studied in parallel: a horizontal liquid layer and a spherical droplet. With the dynamic gas properties being admittedly negligible, one-sided approaches typically hinge upon quantifying heat and mass transfer through the gas phase by means of transfer coefficients (like in the Newton's cooling law), which in dimensionless terms eventually corresponds to using Biot numbers. Quite a typical arrangement encountered in the literature is a constant Biot number, the same for perturbations of different wavelengths and maybe even the same as for the reference state. In the present work, we underscore the relevance of accounting for its wave-number dependence, which is especially the case in the evaporative context with relatively large values of the resulting effective Biot number. We illustrate the effect in the framework of the Marangoni instability thresholds. As a concrete example, we consider HFE-7100 (a standard refrigerant) for the liquid and air for the inert gas.

  3. Importance of wave-number dependence of Biot numbers in one-sided models of evaporative Marangoni instability: Horizontal layer and spherical droplet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machrafi, H; Rednikov, A; Colinet, P; Dauby, P C

    2015-05-01

    A one-sided model of the thermal Marangoni instability owing to evaporation into an inert gas is developed. Two configurations are studied in parallel: a horizontal liquid layer and a spherical droplet. With the dynamic gas properties being admittedly negligible, one-sided approaches typically hinge upon quantifying heat and mass transfer through the gas phase by means of transfer coefficients (like in the Newton's cooling law), which in dimensionless terms eventually corresponds to using Biot numbers. Quite a typical arrangement encountered in the literature is a constant Biot number, the same for perturbations of different wavelengths and maybe even the same as for the reference state. In the present work, we underscore the relevance of accounting for its wave-number dependence, which is especially the case in the evaporative context with relatively large values of the resulting effective Biot number. We illustrate the effect in the framework of the Marangoni instability thresholds. As a concrete example, we consider HFE-7100 (a standard refrigerant) for the liquid and air for the inert gas.

  4. Linear Active Disturbance Rejection Control of Dissolved Oxygen Concentration Based on Benchmark Simulation Model Number 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoyi Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs, the dissolved oxygen is the key variable to be controlled in bioreactors. In this paper, linear active disturbance rejection control (LADRC is utilized to track the dissolved oxygen concentration based on benchmark simulation model number 1 (BSM1. Optimal LADRC parameters tuning approach for wastewater treatment processes is obtained by analyzing and simulations on BSM1. Moreover, by analyzing the estimation capacity of linear extended state observer (LESO in the control of dissolved oxygen, the parameter range of LESO is acquired, which is a valuable guidance for parameter tuning in simulation and even in practice. The simulation results show that LADRC can overcome the disturbance existing in the control of wastewater and improve the tracking accuracy of dissolved oxygen. LADRC provides another practical solution to the control of WWTPs.

  5. On the proper Mach number and ratio of specific heats for modeling the Venus bow shock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatrallyay, M.; Russell, C. T.; Luhmann, J. G.; Barnes, A.; Mihalov, J. D.

    1984-01-01

    Observational data from the Pioneer Venus Orbiter are used to investigate the physical characteristics of the Venus bow shock, and to explore some general issues in the numerical simulation of collisionless shocks. It is found that since equations from gas-dynamic (GD) models of the Venus shock cannot in general replace MHD equations, it is not immediately obvious what the optimum way is to describe the desired MHD situation with a GD code. Test case analysis shows that for quasi-perpendicular shocks it is safest to use the magnetospheric Mach number as an input to the GD code. It is also shown that when comparing GD predicted temperatures with MHD predicted temperatures total energy should be compared since the magnetic energy density provides a significant fraction of the internal energy of the MHD fluid for typical solar wind parameters. Some conclusions are also offered on the properties of the terrestrial shock.

  6. A Forecasting Model of Required Number of Wheat Bulk Carriers for Africa

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Masayoshi Kubo

    2008-01-01

    <正>The ocean transportation of grain bulk carriers is promoted by development of ocean economic.With the development of coastal region,the cargo transportation wi11 become more and more important,especially for the resource such as grain,oil and coal.In this study,a model is built to estimate the number of grain bulk carriers needed for wheat based upon analyzing the relationships between Tons and Ton-miles of Africa wheat transportation.We find that the agricultural policies greatly affect the wheat transportation to Africa.Then,using two scenarios, we predict how many ships are necessary for the maritime transportation of wheat from other places to Africa in the future.We believe that this research is extremely useful to maritime transportation of wheat to Africa.

  7. Segregation process and phase transition in cyclic predator-prey models with even number of species

    CERN Document Server

    Szabo, Gyorgy; Sznaider, Gustavo Ariel

    2007-01-01

    We study a spatial cyclic predator-prey model with an even number of species (for n=4, 6, and 8) that allows the formation of two defective alliances consisting of the even and odd label species. The species are distributed on the sites of a square lattice. The evolution of spatial distribution is governed by iteration of two elementary processes on neighboring sites chosen randomly: if the sites are occupied by a predator-prey pair then the predator invades the prey's site; otherwise the species exchange their site with a probability $X$. For low $X$ values a self-organizing pattern is maintained by cyclic invasions. If $X$ exceeds a threshold value then two types of domains grow up that formed by the odd and even label species, respectively. Monte Carlo simulations indicate the blocking of this segregation process within a range of X for n=8.

  8. Monthly sunspot number time series analysis and its modeling through autoregressive artificial neural network

    CERN Document Server

    Chattopadhyay, Goutami; 10.1140/epjp/i2012-12043-9

    2012-01-01

    This study reports a statistical analysis of monthly sunspot number time series and observes non homogeneity and asymmetry within it. Using Mann-Kendall test a linear trend is revealed. After identifying stationarity within the time series we generate autoregressive AR(p) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA(p,q)). Based on minimization of AIC we find 3 and 1 as the best values of p and q respectively. In the next phase, autoregressive neural network (AR-NN(3)) is generated by training a generalized feedforward neural network (GFNN). Assessing the model performances by means of Willmott's index of second order and coefficient of determination, the performance of AR-NN(3) is identified to be better than AR(3) and ARMA(3,1).

  9. A Poisson hierarchical modelling approach to detecting copy number variation in sequence coverage data

    KAUST Repository

    Sepúlveda, Nuno

    2013-02-26

    Background: The advent of next generation sequencing technology has accelerated efforts to map and catalogue copy number variation (CNV) in genomes of important micro-organisms for public health. A typical analysis of the sequence data involves mapping reads onto a reference genome, calculating the respective coverage, and detecting regions with too-low or too-high coverage (deletions and amplifications, respectively). Current CNV detection methods rely on statistical assumptions (e.g., a Poisson model) that may not hold in general, or require fine-tuning the underlying algorithms to detect known hits. We propose a new CNV detection methodology based on two Poisson hierarchical models, the Poisson-Gamma and Poisson-Lognormal, with the advantage of being sufficiently flexible to describe different data patterns, whilst robust against deviations from the often assumed Poisson model.Results: Using sequence coverage data of 7 Plasmodium falciparum malaria genomes (3D7 reference strain, HB3, DD2, 7G8, GB4, OX005, and OX006), we showed that empirical coverage distributions are intrinsically asymmetric and overdispersed in relation to the Poisson model. We also demonstrated a low baseline false positive rate for the proposed methodology using 3D7 resequencing data and simulation. When applied to the non-reference isolate data, our approach detected known CNV hits, including an amplification of the PfMDR1 locus in DD2 and a large deletion in the CLAG3.2 gene in GB4, and putative novel CNV regions. When compared to the recently available FREEC and cn.MOPS approaches, our findings were more concordant with putative hits from the highest quality array data for the 7G8 and GB4 isolates.Conclusions: In summary, the proposed methodology brings an increase in flexibility, robustness, accuracy and statistical rigour to CNV detection using sequence coverage data. 2013 Seplveda et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

  10. Growth and reproductive effects from dietary exposure to Aroclor 1268 in mink (Neovison vison), a surrogate model for marine mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folland, William R; Newsted, John L; Fitzgerald, Scott D; Fuchsman, Phyllis C; Bradley, Patrick W; Kern, John; Kannan, Kurunthachalam; Remington, Richard E; Zwiernik, Matthew J

    2016-03-01

    Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) from the commercial mixture Aroclor 1268 were historically released into the Turtle-Brunswick River estuary (southeastern Georgia, USA) from industrial operations. Sum PCBs (ΣPCBs) in blubber samples from Turtle-Brunswick River estuary bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) have been reported at concentrations more than 10-fold higher than those observed in dolphins from adjacent regional estuaries. Given that toxicity data specific to Aroclor 1268 and applicable to marine mammals are limited, predicting the toxic effects of Aroclor 1268 in dolphins is uncertain, particularly because of its unique congener profile and associated physiochemical characteristics compared with other PCB mixtures. American mink (Neovison vison) were chosen as a surrogate model for cetaceans to develop marine mammalian PCB toxicity benchmarks. Mink are a suitable surrogate species for cetaceans in toxicity studies because of similarities in diet and taxonomic class, and a characteristic sensitivity to PCBs provides a potential safety factor when using mink toxicology data for cross-species extrapolations. Effects of dietary exposure to Aroclor 1268 on reproduction, growth, and mortality in mink were compared with both a negative control and a positive control (3,3',4,4',5-pentachlorobiphenyl, PCB 126). Aroclor 1268 dietary ΣPCB concentrations ranged from 1.8 µg/g feed wet weight to 29 µg/g feed wet weight. Whelp success was unaffected by Aroclor 1268 exposure at any level. Treatment mean litter size, kit growth, and kit survival were adversely affected relative to the negative control at dietary ΣPCB concentrations of 10.6 µg/g feed wet weight and greater.

  11. Discovering Genes Essential to the Hypothalamic Regulation of Human Reproduction Using a Human Disease Model: Adjusting to Life in the "-Omics" Era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamou, M I; Cox, K H; Crowley, William F

    2015-12-01

    The neuroendocrine regulation of reproduction is an intricate process requiring the exquisite coordination of an assortment of cellular networks, all converging on the GnRH neurons. These neurons have a complex life history, migrating mainly from the olfactory placode into the hypothalamus, where GnRH is secreted and acts as the master regulator of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis. Much of what we know about the biology of the GnRH neurons has been aided by discoveries made using the human disease model of isolated GnRH deficiency (IGD), a family of rare Mendelian disorders that share a common failure of secretion and/or action of GnRH causing hypogonadotropic hypogonadism. Over the last 30 years, research groups around the world have been investigating the genetic basis of IGD using different strategies based on complex cases that harbor structural abnormalities or single pleiotropic genes, endogamous pedigrees, candidate gene approaches as well as pathway gene analyses. Although such traditional approaches, based on well-validated tools, have been critical to establish the field, new strategies, such as next-generation sequencing, are now providing speed and robustness, but also revealing a surprising number of variants in known IGD genes in both patients and healthy controls. Thus, before the field moves forward with new genetic tools and continues discovery efforts, we must reassess what we know about IGD genetics and prepare to hold our work to a different standard. The purpose of this review is to: 1) look back at the strategies used to discover the "known" genes implicated in the rare forms of IGD; 2) examine the strengths and weaknesses of the methodologies used to validate genetic variation; 3) substantiate the role of known genes in the pathophysiology of the disease; and 4) project forward as we embark upon a widening use of these new and powerful technologies for gene discovery.

  12. Discovering Genes Essential to the Hypothalamic Regulation of Human Reproduction Using a Human Disease Model: Adjusting to Life in the "-Omics" Era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamou, M I; Cox, K H; Crowley, William F

    2016-02-01

    The neuroendocrine regulation of reproduction is an intricate process requiring the exquisite coordination of an assortment of cellular networks, all converging on the GnRH neurons. These neurons have a complex life history, migrating mainly from the olfactory placode into the hypothalamus, where GnRH is secreted and acts as the master regulator of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis. Much of what we know about the biology of the GnRH neurons has been aided by discoveries made using the human disease model of isolated GnRH deficiency (IGD), a family of rare Mendelian disorders that share a common failure of secretion and/or action of GnRH causing hypogonadotropic hypogonadism. Over the last 30 years, research groups around the world have been investigating the genetic basis of IGD using different strategies based on complex cases that harbor structural abnormalities or single pleiotropic genes, endogamous pedigrees, candidate gene approaches as well as pathway gene analyses. Although such traditional approaches, based on well-validated tools, have been critical to establish the field, new strategies, such as next-generation sequencing, are now providing speed and robustness, but also revealing a surprising number of variants in known IGD genes in both patients and healthy controls. Thus, before the field moves forward with new genetic tools and continues discovery efforts, we must reassess what we know about IGD genetics and prepare to hold our work to a different standard. The purpose of this review is to: 1) look back at the strategies used to discover the "known" genes implicated in the rare forms of IGD; 2) examine the strengths and weaknesses of the methodologies used to validate genetic variation; 3)substantiate the role of known genes in the pathophysiology of the disease; and 4) project forward as we embark upon a widening use of these new and powerful technologies for gene discovery. (Endocrine Reviews 36: 603-621, 2015).

  13. Lepton number violating processes in the minimal 3-3-1 model with sterile neutrinos

    CERN Document Server

    Machado, A C B; Pleitez, V

    2016-01-01

    We consider a given numerical solution for the real part of the unitary matrices which diagonalize the charged lepton mass matrices in the minimal 3-3-1 model with sterile neutrinos, and we study its phenomenological consequences in various processes involving flavor number violating interactions. In the allowed leptonic tree level decays $l_i\\to l_jl_kl_k$, where $l_i=\\mu,\\tau$, $l_{j,k}=e,\\mu$, we found that in particular the channel $\\mu\\to eee$ impose a lower mass limit on the vector doubly charged bilepton of $4.58$ TeV and that the scalar contributions are negligible in this kind of processes. We also test the matrices solution in the tree level Higgs reaction $h^0\\to l_il_j$ and in the one-loop decays $l_i\\to l_j\\gamma$, and found that in the loop processes the virtual interactions of the exotic particles with leptons provide signals much larger than in the standard model, but still quite smaller than the experimental upper limits.

  14. An Optimization Model for Design of Asphalt Pavements Based on IHAP Code Number 234

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Reza Ghanizadeh

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Pavement construction is one of the most costly parts of transportation infrastructures. Incommensurate design and construction of pavements, in addition to the loss of the initial investment, would impose indirect costs to the road users and reduce road safety. This paper aims to propose an optimization model to determine the optimal configuration as well as the optimum thickness of different pavement layers based on the Iran Highway Asphalt Paving Code Number 234 (IHAP Code 234. After developing the optimization model, the optimum thickness of pavement layers for secondary rural roads, major rural roads, and freeways was determined based on the recommended prices in “Basic Price List for Road, Runway and Railway” of Iran in 2015 and several charts were developed to determine the optimum thickness of pavement layers including asphalt concrete, granular base, and granular subbase with respect to road classification, design traffic, and resilient modulus of subgrade. Design charts confirm that in the current situation (material prices in 2015, application of asphalt treated layer in pavement structure is not cost effective. Also it was shown that, with increasing the strength of subgrade soil, the subbase layer may be removed from the optimum structure of pavement.

  15. Using common random numbers in health care cost-effectiveness simulation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Daniel R; Klein, Robert W; Smolen, Lee J; Klein, Timothy M; Roberts, Stephen D

    2013-08-01

    To identify the problem of separating statistical noise from treatment effects in health outcomes modeling and analysis. To demonstrate the implementation of one technique, common random numbers (CRNs), and to illustrate the value of CRNs to assess costs and outcomes under uncertainty. A microsimulation model was designed to evaluate osteoporosis treatment, estimating cost and utility measures for patient cohorts at high risk of osteoporosis-related fractures. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated using a full implementation of CRNs, a partial implementation of CRNs, and no CRNs. A modification to traditional probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) was used to determine how variance reduction can impact a decision maker's view of treatment efficacy and costs. The full use of CRNs provided a 93.6 percent reduction in variance compared to simulations not using the technique. The use of partial CRNs provided a 5.6 percent reduction. The PSA results using full CRNs demonstrated a substantially tighter range of cost-benefit outcomes for teriparatide usage than the cost-benefits generated without the technique. CRNs provide substantial variance reduction for cost-effectiveness studies. By reducing variability not associated with the treatment being evaluated, CRNs provide a better understanding of treatment effects and risks. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  16. Female reproductive disorders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crain, D Andrew; Janssen, Sarah J; Edwards, Thea M

    2008-01-01

    To evaluate the possible role of endocrine-disrupting compounds (EDCs) on female reproductive disorders emphasizing developmental plasticity and the complexity of endocrine-dependent ontogeny of reproductive organs. Declining conception rates and the high incidence of female reproductive...

  17. Normal Female Reproductive Anatomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... historical Searches are case-insensitive Reproductive System, Female, Anatomy Add to My Pictures View /Download : Small: 720x756 ... Large: 3000x3150 View Download Title: Reproductive System, Female, Anatomy Description: Anatomy of the female reproductive system; drawing ...

  18. Reproduction, physiology and biochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    This chapter summarizes fundamental knowledge and recent discoveries about the reproduction, physiology and biochemistry of plant-parasitic nematodes. Various types of reproduction are reviewed, including sexual reproduction and mitotic and meiotic parthenogenesis. Although much is known about the p...

  19. My Reproductive Life Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Button Information For... Media Policy Makers My Reproductive Life Plan Language: English Español (Spanish) Recommend on Facebook Tweet ... to achieve those goals is called a reproductive life plan . There are many kinds of reproductive life plans. ...

  20. Modeling number of bacteria per food unit in comparison to bacterial concentration in quantitative risk assessment: impact on risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouillot, Régis; Chen, Yuhuan; Hoelzer, Karin

    2015-02-01

    When developing quantitative risk assessment models, a fundamental consideration for risk assessors is to decide whether to evaluate changes in bacterial levels in terms of concentrations or in terms of bacterial numbers. Although modeling bacteria in terms of integer numbers may be regarded as a more intuitive and rigorous choice, modeling bacterial concentrations is more popular as it is generally less mathematically complex. We tested three different modeling approaches in a simulation study. The first approach considered bacterial concentrations; the second considered the number of bacteria in contaminated units, and the third considered the expected number of bacteria in contaminated units. Simulation results indicate that modeling concentrations tends to overestimate risk compared to modeling the number of bacteria. A sensitivity analysis using a regression tree suggests that processes which include drastic scenarios consisting of combinations of large bacterial inactivation followed by large bacterial growth frequently lead to a >10-fold overestimation of the average risk when modeling concentrations as opposed to bacterial numbers. Alternatively, the approach of modeling the expected number of bacteria in positive units generates results similar to the second method and is easier to use, thus potentially representing a promising compromise.

  1. Female reproductive disorders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crain, D Andrew; Janssen, Sarah J; Edwards, Thea M;

    2008-01-01

    To evaluate the possible role of endocrine-disrupting compounds (EDCs) on female reproductive disorders emphasizing developmental plasticity and the complexity of endocrine-dependent ontogeny of reproductive organs. Declining conception rates and the high incidence of female reproductive disrupti......To evaluate the possible role of endocrine-disrupting compounds (EDCs) on female reproductive disorders emphasizing developmental plasticity and the complexity of endocrine-dependent ontogeny of reproductive organs. Declining conception rates and the high incidence of female reproductive...

  2. Using the Reproductive Life Plan in contraceptive counselling

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Tydén, Tanja; Verbiest, Sarah; Van Achterberg, Theo; Larsson, Margareta; Stern, Jenny

    2016-01-01

    ... her lifetime. The Reproductive Life Plan (RLP) is a protocol that aims to encourage both women and men to reflect on their reproductive intentions and to find strategies for successful family planning, for example to have the wanted number...

  3. Quantitative analysis of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) viremia profiles from experimental infection: a statistical modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is the most economically significant viral disease facing the global swine industry. Viremia profiles of PRRS virus challenged pigs reflect the severity and progression of the infection within the host and provide crucial information for subsequen...

  4. Pierre Bourdieu's Model of Cultural Reproduction: The Role of Teachers in Sustaining Traditional Power Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savage, Lawrence E.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine whether or not teachers would predict differing educational outcomes for students based on cultural and social capital measures--drawn from the work of Pierre Bourdieu and the field of cultural reproduction theory. To this end, surveys were distributed within a large urban district within North Carolina.…

  5. Study efficacy of new model of derivative clonazepam on hypnotic, sedative, blood hematology and evaluation reproductive function in male mice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adnan M. Jassim

    2016-12-01

    Conclusion clonazepam (T1 and 88 compound (T3 with high dose 50 mg/kg have good hypnotic action with complete muscle relaxant. In addition to all, agents have good analgesic effect but T2 showed prominent result. Finally, clonazepam and its related agent 88, 89 compound reveal adverse effect on reproductive function but may be very slightly in 94 compound.

  6. Development of QSAR models using artificial neural network analysis for risk assessment of repeated-dose, reproductive, and developmental toxicities of cosmetic ingredients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hisaki, Tomoka; Aiba Née Kaneko, Maki; Yamaguchi, Masahiko; Sasa, Hitoshi; Kouzuki, Hirokazu

    2015-04-01

    Use of laboratory animals for systemic toxicity testing is subject to strong ethical and regulatory constraints, but few alternatives are yet available. One possible approach to predict systemic toxicity of chemicals in the absence of experimental data is quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analysis. Here, we present QSAR models for prediction of maximum "no observed effect level" (NOEL) for repeated-dose, developmental and reproductive toxicities. NOEL values of 421 chemicals for repeated-dose toxicity, 315 for reproductive toxicity, and 156 for developmental toxicity were collected from Japan Existing Chemical Data Base (JECDB). Descriptors to predict toxicity were selected based on molecular orbital (MO) calculations, and QSAR models employing multiple independent descriptors as the input layer of an artificial neural network (ANN) were constructed to predict NOEL values. Robustness of the models was indicated by the root-mean-square (RMS) errors after 10-fold cross-validation (0.529 for repeated-dose, 0.508 for reproductive, and 0.558 for developmental toxicity). Evaluation of the models in terms of the percentages of predicted NOELs falling within factors of 2, 5 and 10 of the in-vivo-determined NOELs suggested that the model is applicable to both general chemicals and the subset of chemicals listed in International Nomenclature of Cosmetic Ingredients (INCI). Our results indicate that ANN models using in silico parameters have useful predictive performance, and should contribute to integrated risk assessment of systemic toxicity using a weight-of-evidence approach. Availability of predicted NOELs will allow calculation of the margin of safety, as recommended by the Scientific Committee on Consumer Safety (SCCS).

  7. Plasticity in allocation of nicotine to reproductive parts inNicotiana attenuata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, I T; Karb, M J

    1995-07-01

    Although little is known about the patterns of chemical defense allocation in reproductive tissues, optimal defense theory predicts a high constitutive allocation due to the tissues' high fitness value. To examine this prediction, we quantified the short- and long-term changes in the nicotine pools of reproductive tissues in response to both floral and leaf damage. Recently opened flowers (stage 5 capsules) do not alter their nicotine pools within a day in response to herbivory byManduca sexta larvae or mechanical damage to the corolla. Similarly, leaf damage during both vegetative and reproductive growth does not influence the nicotine pools of the first three stage-5 capsules produced. However, the nicotine pools of capsules produced later in reproductive growth were significantly larger (1.2- to 1.9-fold) on plants with leaf damage. These differences in floral nicotine pools were a result of both increases in nicotine pools of capsules on damaged plants and decreases in the nicotine pools of capsules on undamaged plants during reproductive growth. Leaf damage did not affect the rate of capsule maturation or the mass of stage-5 capsules at any time during reproductive growth. An allometric analysis of nicotine pools and biomass of reproductive parts in all stages of development from damaged and undamaged plants demonstrates that damaged plants allocated a significantly larger quantity of nicotine to reproductive parts in all stages of development than did undamaged plants. Given that nicotine is thought to be synthesized in the roots and transported to leaves and reproductive parts, nicotine could be allocated to reproductive parts in proportion to the number of developing capsules on a plant. We excised the first 27 stage-5 capsules on plants with and without leaf damage, with the expectation that plants with fewer capsules would allocate a larger amount of nicotine to the remaining capsules. In contrast to the prediction of this passive allocation model, floral

  8. Negative Numbers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galbraith, Mary J.

    1974-01-01

    Examination of models for representing integers demonstrates that formal operational thought is required for establishing the operations on integers. Advocated is the use of many models for introducing negative numbers but, apart from addition, it is recommended that operations on integers be delayed until the formal operations stage. (JP)

  9. Forecasting the number of human immunodeficiency virus infections in the korean population using the autoregressive integrated moving average model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hye-Kyung; Kim, Na-Young; Kim, Sung Soon; Chu, Chaeshin; Kee, Mee-Kyung

    2013-12-01

    From the introduction of HIV into the Republic of Korea in 1985 through 2012, 9,410 HIV-infected Koreans have been identified. Since 2000, there has been a sharp increase in newly diagnosed HIV-infected Koreans. It is necessary to estimate the changes in HIV infection to plan budgets and to modify HIV/AIDS prevention policy. We constructed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to forecast the number of HIV infections from 2013 to 2017. HIV infection data from 1985 to 2012 were used to fit ARIMA models. Akaike Information Criterion and Schwartz Bayesian Criterion statistics were used to evaluate the constructed models. Estimation was via the maximum likelihood method. To assess the validity of the proposed models, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between the number of observed and fitted HIV infections from 1985 to 2012 was calculated. Finally, the fitted ARIMA models were used to forecast the number of HIV infections from 2013 to 2017. The fitted number of HIV infections was calculated by optimum ARIMA (2,2,1) model from 1985-2012. The fitted number was similar to the observed number of HIV infections, with a MAPE of 13.7%. The forecasted number of new HIV infections in 2013 was 962 (95% confidence interval (CI): 889-1,036) and in 2017 was 1,111 (95% CI: 805-1,418). The forecasted cumulative number of HIV infections in 2013 was 10,372 (95% CI: 10,308-10,437) and in 2017 was14,724 (95% CI: 13,893-15,555) by ARIMA (1,2,3). Based on the forecast of the number of newly diagnosed HIV infections and the current cumulative number of HIV infections, the cumulative number of HIV-infected Koreans in 2017 would reach about 15,000.

  10. Determining the Number of Parallel RC Branches in Polarization / Depolarization Current Modeling for XLPE Cable Insulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sulaiman

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available An important element in the electric power distribution system is the underground cable. However continuous applications of high voltages unto the cable, may lead to insulation degradations and subsequent cable failure. Since any disruption to the electricity supply may lead to economic losses as well as lowering customer satisfaction, the maintenance of cables is very important to an electrical utility company. Thus, a reliable diagnostic technique that is able to accurately assess the condition of cable insulation operating is critical, in order for cable replacement exercise to be done. One such diagnostic technique to assess the level of degradation within the cable insulation is the Polarization / Depolarization Current (PDC analysis. This research work attempts to investigate PDC behaviour for medium voltage (MV cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE insulated cables, via baseline PDC measurements and utilizing the measured data to simulate for PDC analysis. Once PDC simulations have been achieved, the values of conductivity of XLPE cable insulations can be approximated. Cable conductivity serves as an indicator to the level of degradation within XLPE cable insulation. It was found that for new and unused XLPE cables, the polarization and depolarization currents have almost overlapping trendlines, as the cable insulation’s conduction current is negligible. Using a linear dielectric circuit equivalence model as the XLPE cable insulation and its corresponding governing equations, it is possible to optimize the number of parallel RC branches to simulate PDC analysis, with a very high degree of accuracy. The PDC simulation model has been validated against the baseline PDC measurements.

  11. Amphibian declines in the twenty-first century: why we need assisted reproductive technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clulow, John; Trudeau, Vance L; Kouba, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    Each amphibian species is evolutionarily distinct, having developed highly specialized and diverse reproductive strategies in both terrestrial and aquatic environments. These unique reproductive patterns and mechanisms, key to species propagation, have only been explored in a limited number of laboratory models. Although the development of applied reproductive technologies for amphibians has proven useful for a few threatened species, the real benefit of this technology has been new insights into the reproductive adaptations, behavior, endocrinology, and physiological mechanisms that have evolved over millions of years. As the basic fundamental database on amphibian reproductive physiology has grown, so has the applied benefit for species conservation. In particular, technologies such as non-invasive fecal and urinary hormone assays, hormone treatments for induced breeding or gamete collection, in vitro fertilization, and the ability to establish genome resource banks have all played important roles in monitoring or managing small populations of captive species. Amphibians have the ability to produce a large excess of germplasm (up to 10,000 ovulated eggs in a single reproductive event) that if not collected and preserved, would represent a wasted valuable resource. We discuss the current state of knowledge in assisted reproductive technologies for amphibians and why their extinction crisis means these available tools can no longer be implemented as small-scale, last-ditch efforts. The reproductive technologies must be established early as a key component of large-scale species recovery.

  12. Interactions and trade-offs among physiological determinants of performance and reproductive success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Ignacio T; Hopkins, William A

    2009-10-01

    How an animal performs in its natural environment ultimately plays a key role in its reproductive success. While a number of studies have investigated how selection acts on performance-related traits, far fewer studies have examined the mechanisms responsible for variation in performance. Among mechanisms, variable morphology has received the most attention. Although physiological traits have received less attention, they are intrinsically related to performance and ultimately to reproductive success. We present a framework whereby investigators can link some basic physiological functions with organismal performance and ultimately with reproductive success. We propose that performance and ultimately reproductive success are strongly influenced by hormones, immune functions, and energetics. We further argue that no physiological function can be considered in isolation and thus our model emphasizes interactions and trade-offs both within each physiological function as well as among them. Some of the most commonly studied trade-offs are between reproduction and immune functions, with energetics as one of the key common currencies for these trade-offs. From an evolutionary perspective, the largest gaps in our knowledge lie in how these interactions and trade-offs influence reproductive success. We believe that a full understanding of how hormones, immune functions, and energetics influence performance traits related to reproduction and, ultimately, lifetime reproductive success requires recognition of the complex relationships, interactions, and trade-offs among these processes.

  13. Detailed modeling of sloshing in satellites tank at low Bond numbers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepilliez, Mathieu; Tanguy, Sebastien; Interface Team

    2015-11-01

    Consumption of ergols is a critical issue regarding the whole lifetime of a satellite. During maneuvers in mission phases, the Helium bubble used to pressurize the tank can move freely inside, thus generating movement of the center of mass, and sloshing which can disrupt the control of the satellite. In this study we present numerical results obtained from CFD computation, using an Immersed Interface Method to model the tank with a level-set approach for both liquid-gas interface and solid-fluid interface. A parametric study is proposed to observe the influence of the Bond number on resulting forces and torques generated on the tank. One can observe different steps during the maneuvers under microgravity: the first part is dominated by accelerations and volume forces, which flatten the bubble on the hydrophilic tank wall. When the forcing stops, the bubble bounces back, generating sloshing by moving under the influence of inertia and capillary effects. Finally viscous effects damp the sloshing by dissipating the kinetic energy of the bubble. Those results are compared to actual in-flight data for different typical maneuvers on forces and torques, allowing us to characterize the period and damping of the sloshing. CNES/ Airbus Defence & Space funding.

  14. Extending the restricted nonlinear model for wall-turbulence to high Reynolds numbers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bretheim, Joel; Meneveau, Charles; Gayme, Dennice

    2016-11-01

    The restricted nonlinear (RNL) model for wall-turbulence is motivated by the long-observed streamwise-coherent structures that play an important role in these flows. The RNL equations, derived by restricting the convective term in the Navier-Stokes equations, provide a computationally efficient approach due to fewer degrees of freedom in the underlying dynamics. Recent simulations of the RNL system have been conducted for turbulent channel flows at low Reynolds numbers (Re), yielding insights into the dynamical mechanisms and statistics of wall-turbulence. Despite the computational advantages of the RNL system, simulations at high Re remain out-of-reach. We present a new Large Eddy Simulation (LES) framework for the RNL system, enabling its use in engineering applications at high Re such as turbulent flows through wind farms. Initial results demonstrate that, as observed at moderate Re, restricting the range of streamwise varying structures present in the simulation (i.e., limiting the band of x Fourier components or kx modes) significantly affects the accuracy of the statistics. Our results show that only a few well-chosen kx modes lead to RNL turbulence with accurate statistics, including the mean profile and the well-known inner and outer peaks in energy spectra. This work is supported by NSF (WindInspire OISE-1243482).

  15. An Enhanced Fuzzy Multi Criteria Decision Making Model with A proposed Polygon Fuzzy Number

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samah Bekheet

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Decisions in real world applications are often made under the presence of conflicting, uncertain, incomplete and imprecise information. Fuzzy multi Criteria Decision making (FMCDM approach provides a powerful approach for drawing rational decisions under uncertainty given in the form of linguistic values. Linguistic values are usually represented as fuzzy numbers. Most of researchers adopt either triangle or trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Since triangle, intervals, and even singleton are special cases of Trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, so, for most researchers Trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are considered Generalized fuzzy numbers (GFN. In this paper, we introduce polygon fuzzy number (PFN as the actual form of GFN. The proposed form of PFN provides higher flexibility to decision makers to express their own linguistic rather than other form of fuzzy numbers. The given illustrative example ensures such ability for better handling of the FMCDM problems.

  16. The effect of a number of selective points in modeling of polymerization reacting Monte Carlo method: studying the initiation reaction

    CERN Document Server

    Sadi, M; Dabir, B

    2003-01-01

    Monte Carlo Method is one of the most powerful techniques to model different processes, such as polymerization reactions. By this method, without any need to solve moment equations, a very detailed information on the structure and properties of polymers are obtained. The number of algorithm repetitions (selected volumes of reactor for modelling which represent the number of initial molecules) is very important in this method. In Monte Carlo method calculations are based on the random number of generations and reaction probability determinations. so the number of algorithm repetition is very important. In this paper, the initiation reaction was considered alone and the importance of number of initiator molecules on the result were studied. It can be concluded that Monte Carlo method will not give accurate results if the number of molecules is not satisfied to be big enough, because in that case , selected volume would not be representative of the whole system.

  17. Teasing apart socially-induced infertility in non-reproductive female Damaraland mole-rats, Fukomys damarensis (Rodentia: Bathyergidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Nigel C

    2011-12-01

    The Damaraland mole-rat is a subterranean mammal exhibiting extreme reproductive skew with a single reproductive female in each colony responsible for procreation. Non-reproductive female colony members are physiologically suppressed while in the colony, exhibiting reduced concentrations of plasma luteinizing hormone (LH) and a decreased response of the pituitary, as measured by the release of bioactive LH, to an exogenous dose of gonadotrophin releasing hormone (GnRH). Removal of the reproductive female from the colony results in an elevation of LH and an enhanced response of the pituitary to a GnRH challenge in non-reproductive females comparable to reproductive females, implying control of reproduction in these individuals by the reproductive female. The Damaraland mole-rat is an ideal model for investigating the physiological and behavioral mechanisms that regulate the hypothalamo-pituitary-gonadal axis. In contrast, we know less about the control of reproduction at the level of the hypothalamus. The immunohistochemistry of the GnRH system of both reproductive and non-reproductive female Damaraland mole-rats has revealed no significant differences with respect to morphology, distribution or numbers of immunoreactive GnRH perikarya. We examined whether the endogenous opioid peptide beta-endorphin was responsible for the inhibition of the release of the GnRH from the neurons indirectly by measuring LH concentrations in these non-reproductive females following single, hourly and 8 hourly injections of the opioid antagonist naloxone. The results imply that the endogenous opioid peptide, beta-endorphin, is not responsible for the inhibition of GnRH release from the perikarya in non-reproductive females. Preliminary data examining the circulating levels of cortisol also do not support a role for circulating glucocorticoids. The possible role of kisspeptin is discussed.

  18. Toward the definition of a carbon budget model: seasonal variation and temperature effect on respiration rate of vegetative and reproductive organs of pistachio trees (Pistacia vera).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marra, Francesco P; Barone, Ettore; La Mantia, Michele; Caruso, Tiziano

    2009-09-01

    This study, as a preliminary step toward the definition of a carbon budget model for pistachio trees (Pistacia vera L.), aimed at estimating and evaluating the dynamics of respiration of vegetative and reproductive organs of pistachio tree. Trials were performed in 2005 in a commercial orchard located in Sicily (370 m a.s.l.) on five bearing 20-year-old pistachio trees of cv. Bianca grafted onto Pistachio terebinthus L. Growth analyses and respiration measurements were done on vegetative (leaf) and reproductive (infructescence) organs during the entire growing season (April-September) at biweekly intervals. Results suggested that the respiration rates of pistachio reproductive and vegetative organs were related to their developmental stage. Both for leaf and for infructescence, the highest values were observed during the earlier stages of growth corresponding to the phases of most intense organ growth. The sensitivity of respiration activity to temperature changes, measured by Q(10), showed an increase throughout the transition from immature to mature leaves, as well as during fruit development. The data collected were also used to estimate the seasonal carbon loss by respiration activity for a single leaf and a single infructescence. The amount of carbon lost by respiration was affected by short-term temperature patterns, organ developmental stage and tissue function.

  19. Differences in Whole Blood Gene Expression Associated With Infection Time-course and Extent of Fetal Mortality in a Reproductive Model of type 2 Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus (PRRSV) Infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus (PRRSV) infection of pregnant females causes fetal death and increased piglet mortality, but there is substantial variation in the extent of reproductive pathology between individual dams. This study used RNA-sequencing to characterize the whole bl...

  20. Costs of integrating demand-based reproductive health commodity model into the Government and NGO service delivery systems in Bangladesh: a supply side perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Ziaul; Sarker, Abdur Razzaque; Anwar, Shahela; Kabir, Humayun; Gazi, Rukhsana

    2015-01-01

    To estimate additional total cost and average cost of integrating the demand-based reproductive health commodity model into the existing Government and NGO facilities in Bangladesh. Activity based cost analysis was conducted during 2006-2008 in two low performing rural sub-districts (Nabigong and Raipur sub-district) and one urban slum area in Dhaka city, Bangladesh. Activity-based cost data were collected using ingredient approach, which comprised of listing all types of inputs by activity, quantities and prices for each input. Total cost was presented according to capital and recurrent items. The supply side perspective was considered for entire analysis. The total cost of integrating demand-based reproductive health commodity (DBRHC) model into the Government and NGO service delivery system was estimated to BDT 18,667,634 (US$274,524). The proportion of capital cost was 59 % and the recurrent cost was 41 % of the total cost. The average cost per beneficiaries was BDT 230 (US$3.38) only for introducing this model into the existing health system. The built-in interventions of DBRHC model were doable at low-cost at the selected Government and NGO settings at the grass-root level. The model has potential of further cost containment during scaling up-if the intervention costs are adjusted with the existing functionaries of the Government and NGOs.

  1. Student standpoints relevant for future reproductive behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuburović Ankica

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the various standpoints of students on their motivation for parenthood, planning and deciding on birth giving, influence between marriage and parenthood, parent role complexity and responsibility, on the knowledge of effect and consequences of the problem of insufficient birth giving, with an aim of getting to know the main characteristics of their possible reproductive behavior. The analyzed standpoints are part of a more comprehensive and inclusive research, carried out on a sample of 1494 surveyed persons (1000 secondary-school pupils and 494 students in four biggest regional centers - Belgrade, Novi Sad, Kragujevac and Niš. The orientation only to student’s standpoints had an aim to more completely analyze the already abundant empirical material, which is acceptable due to the fact that students are closer to beginning of birth giving according to their age-situation characteristic. The willingness and desire of the students to become parents is significant, but this is only one of their varied life aspirations (importance of partnership, professional engagement…. The intention is to bring into accordance the realization of the most important roles, which actually indicates to a fairly uniform importance in satisfying the basic individual needs. Apart from that, the need for parenthood is dominantly emotional and altruistic, which can be satisfied by having only one child. Possible reproductive norms - which are directed to having two children, whereby they are higher than the current fertility rates, but also somewhat lower normatively determined expectations in relation to the desired number of children, as well as a significant orientation towards marriage and parenthood and the existence of the knowledge on the problem of the impossibility of simple reproduction and conscience of social need for population reproduction - represent a gap for realization of measures for motivating birth giving and parenthood

  2. Post-reproductive parthenogenetic pea aphids (Acyrthosiphon pisum are visually identifiable and disproportionately positioned distally to clonal colonies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik T. Saberski

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The role of kin-selection in the evolution of post-reproductive life is controversial. While anthropological and demographic studies strongly suggest that humans and a few other species experience kin selection for significant post-reproductive survival, these results are necessarily correlational. Understanding could therefore be advanced by the development of a globally available, field and laboratory tractable experimental model of kin-selected post-reproductive survival. In only one invertebrate (Quadrartus yoshinomiyai, a gall-forming aphid endemic to Japan have individuals too old to reproduce been shown to be both numerous in natural habitats and able to help close relatives survive or reproduce. Pea aphids, (Acyrthosiphon pisum, common, tractable organisms, frequently outlive their reproductive ages in laboratories, live in tight interacting groups that are often clonal, and therefore should be evaluated as potential model organisms for the study of adaptive post-reproductive life. The first major step in this process is to identify an optimal method for assessing if a parthenogenetic adult is post-reproductive. We evaluated three methods, relying respectively on isolation in clip cages, visual examination for embryonic eyespots, and dissection. In every case each method identified the same individuals as reproductive versus post-reproductive. While the clip-cage method requires a multi-day wait to produce data, and dissection is inevitably fatal, the eyespot method is quick (under one minute per individual easy, and non-invasive. This method makes it possible to accurately assess the post-reproductive status of a large number of parthenogenetic pea aphids. We demonstrate the usefulness of the eyespot method in showing that while reproductively valuable adults tend to place themselves near the centers of clonal colonies, less valuable post-reproductive adults are more often at or beyond the edges of colonies. These encouraging early

  3. Post-reproductive parthenogenetic pea aphids (Acyrthosiphon pisum) are visually identifiable and disproportionately positioned distally to clonal colonies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saberski, Erik T; Diamond, Julia Daisy; Henneman, Nathaniel Fath; Levitis, Daniel A

    2016-01-01

    The role of kin-selection in the evolution of post-reproductive life is controversial. While anthropological and demographic studies strongly suggest that humans and a few other species experience kin selection for significant post-reproductive survival, these results are necessarily correlational. Understanding could therefore be advanced by the development of a globally available, field and laboratory tractable experimental model of kin-selected post-reproductive survival. In only one invertebrate (Quadrartus yoshinomiyai, a gall-forming aphid endemic to Japan) have individuals too old to reproduce been shown to be both numerous in natural habitats and able to help close relatives survive or reproduce. Pea aphids, (Acyrthosiphon pisum), common, tractable organisms, frequently outlive their reproductive ages in laboratories, live in tight interacting groups that are often clonal, and therefore should be evaluated as potential model organisms for the study of adaptive post-reproductive life. The first major step in this process is to identify an optimal method for assessing if a parthenogenetic adult is post-reproductive. We evaluated three methods, relying respectively on isolation in clip cages, visual examination for embryonic eyespots, and dissection. In every case each method identified the same individuals as reproductive versus post-reproductive. While the clip-cage method requires a multi-day wait to produce data, and dissection is inevitably fatal, the eyespot method is quick (under one minute per individual) easy, and non-invasive. This method makes it possible to accurately assess the post-reproductive status of a large number of parthenogenetic pea aphids. We demonstrate the usefulness of the eyespot method in showing that while reproductively valuable adults tend to place themselves near the centers of clonal colonies, less valuable post-reproductive adults are more often at or beyond the edges of colonies. These encouraging early results provide both

  4. Estimating quasi-loglinear models for a Rasch table if the numbers of items is large

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kelderman, Henk

    1987-01-01

    The Rasch Model and various extensions of this model can be formulated as a quasi loglinear model for the incomplete subgroup x score x item response 1 x ... x item response k contingency table. By comparing various loglinear models, specific deviations of the Rasch model can be tested. Parameter es

  5. Reproductive risk factors assessment for anaemia among pregnant women in India using a multinomial logistic regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perumal, Vanamail

    2014-07-01

    To assess reproductive risk factors for anaemia among pregnant women in urban and rural areas of India. The International Institute of Population Sciences, India, carried out third National Family Health Survey in 2005-2006 to estimate a key indicator from a sample of ever-married women in the reproductive age group 15-49 years. Data on various dimensions were collected using a structured questionnaire, and anaemia was measured using a portable HemoCue instrument. Anaemia prevalence among pregnant women was compared between rural and urban areas using chi-square test and odds ratio. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to determine risk factors. Anaemia prevalence was assessed among 3355 pregnant women from rural areas and 1962 pregnant women from urban areas. Moderate-to-severe anaemia in rural areas (32.4%) is significantly more common than in urban areas (27.3%) with an excess risk of 30%. Gestational age specific prevalence of anaemia significantly increases in rural areas after 6 months. Pregnancy duration is a significant risk factor in both urban and rural areas. In rural areas, increasing age at marriage and mass media exposure are significant protective factors of anaemia. However, more births in the last five years, alcohol consumption and smoking habits are significant risk factors. In rural areas, various reproductive factors and lifestyle characteristics constitute significant risk factors for moderate-to-severe anaemia. Therefore, intensive health education on reproductive practices and the impact of lifestyle characteristics are warranted to reduce anaemia prevalence. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Quantum distance and the Euler number index of the Bloch band in a one-dimensional spin model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Yu-Quan

    2014-10-01

    We study the Riemannian metric and the Euler characteristic number of the Bloch band in a one-dimensional spin model with multisite spins exchange interactions. The Euler number of the Bloch band originates from the Gauss-Bonnet theorem on the topological characterization of the closed Bloch states manifold in the first Brillouin zone. We study this approach analytically in a transverse field XY spin chain with three-site spin coupled interactions. We define a class of cyclic quantum distance on the Bloch band and on the ground state, respectively, as a local characterization for quantum phase transitions. Specifically, we give a general formula for the Euler number by means of the Berry curvature in the case of two-band models, which reveals its essential relation to the first Chern number of the band insulators. Finally, we show that the ferromagnetic-paramagnetic phase transition in zero temperature can be distinguished by the Euler number of the Bloch band.

  7. Reproductive Disorders in Snakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Girolamo, Nicola; Selleri, Paolo

    2017-05-01

    Reproduction of snakes is one of the challenging aspects of herpetology medicine. Due to the complexity of reproduction, several disorders may present before, during, or after this process. This article describes the physical examination, and radiographic, ultrasonographic, and endoscopic findings associated with reproductive disorders in snakes. Surgical techniques used to resolve reproductive disorders in snakes are described. Finally, common reproductive disorders in snakes are individually discussed.

  8. Chronic Exposure to Diquat Causes Reproductive Toxicity in Female Mice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia-Qing Zhang

    Full Text Available Diquat is a bipyridyl herbicide that has been widely used as a model chemical for in vivo studies of oxidative stress due to its generation of superoxide anions, and cytotoxic effects. There is little information regarding the toxic effects of diquat on the female reproductive system, particularly ovarian function. Thus, we investigated the reproductive toxic effects of diquat on female mice. Chronic exposure to diquat reduced ovary weights, induced ovarian oxidative stress, resulted in granulosa cell apoptosis, and disrupted oocyte developmental competence, as shown by reactive oxygen species (ROS accumulation, decreased polar body extrusion rates and increased apoptosis-related genes expression. Additionally, after diquat treatment, the numbers of fetal mice and litter sizes were significantly reduced compared to those of control mice. Thus, our results indicated that chronic exposure to diquat induced reproductive toxicity in female mice by promoting the ROS production of gruanousa cells and ooctyes, impairing follicle development, inducing apoptosis, and reducing oocyte quality. In conclusion, our findings indicate that diquat can be used as a potent and efficient chemical for in vivo studies of female reproductive toxicity induced by oxidative stress. Moreover, the findings from this study will further enlarge imitative research investigating the effect of ovarian damage induced by oxidative stress on reproductive performance and possible mechanisms of action in large domestic animals.

  9. [The usage of individual-oriented model in studies on the role of the maternal effect in the reproductive switch in Cladocera].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alekseev, V R; Kazantseva, T I

    2007-01-01

    An individual-oriented model of the population of Daphnia longispina, an abundant zooplankton species in lakes and temporary water bodies of the Palaearctic temperate zone, is described. The concept of the model is based on the growth and reproduction potential of an individual and its ability to switch from parthenogenesis to gamogenesis, which is determined by the life conditions of three successive generations. The model was used for testing hypotheses on the role of maternal effect in the population dynamics of Daphnia. Several important conclusions are made, including the verification of the importance of this phenomenon for the seasonal adaptations in crustaceans. The possibility of maternal effect accumulation in a series of successive generations probably increases the tolerance of populations to annual oscillations of environmental factors. The model affirms the role of the maternal effect, along with the interpopulational polimorphism, as a mechanism providing for the stability of biological systems at the species (population) level.

  10. modelling for optimal number of line storage reservoirs in a water ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    the reservoir system location be integrated into the ... systems experience (figure 1), storage facilities within the system .... Therefore, a computer programme for designing cost effective water distribution net works called Economic Number of.

  11. Model Experiments with Low Reynolds Number Effects in a Ventilated Room

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Peter V.; Filholm, Claus; Topp, Claus;

    The flow in a ventilated room will not always be a fully developed turbulent flow . Reduced air change rates owing to energy considerations and the application of natural ventilation with openings in the outer wall will give room air movements with low turbulence effects. This paper discusses...... the isothermal low Reynolds number flow from a slot inlet in the end wall of the room. The experiments are made on the scale of 1 to 5. Measurements indicate a low Reynolds number effect in the wall jet flow. The virtual origin of the wall jet moves forward in front of the opening at a small Reynolds number......, an effect that is also known from measurements on free jets. The growth rate of the jet, or the length scale, increases and the velocity decay factor decreases at small Reynolds numbers....

  12. Modeling the magnetic properties of lanthanide complexes: relationship of the REC parameters with Pauling electronegativity and coordination number.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldoví, José J; Gaita-Ariño, Alejandro; Coronado, Eugenio

    2015-07-28

    In a previous study, we introduced the Radial Effective Charge (REC) model to study the magnetic properties of lanthanide single ion magnets. Now, we perform an empirical determination of the effective charges (Zi) and radial displacements (Dr) of this model using spectroscopic data. This systematic study allows us to relate Dr and Zi with chemical factors such as the coordination number and the electronegativities of the metal and the donor atoms. This strategy is being used to drastically reduce the number of free parameters in the modeling of the magnetic and spectroscopic properties of f-element complexes.

  13. The MV model of the color glass condensate for a finite number of sources including Coulomb interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLerran, Larry; Skokov, Vladimir V.

    2017-01-01

    We modify the McLerran-Venugopalan model to include only a finite number of sources of color charge. In the effective action for such a system of a finite number of sources, there is a point-like interaction and a Coulombic interaction. The point interaction generates the standard fluctuation term in the McLerran-Venugopalan model. The Coulomb interaction generates the charge screening originating from well known evolution in x. Such a model may be useful for computing angular harmonics of flow measured in high energy hadron collisions for small systems. In this paper we provide a basic formulation of the problem on a lattice.

  14. Definition of Magnetic Monopole Numbers for SU(N) Lattice Gauge-Higgs Models

    CERN Document Server

    Hollands, S

    2001-01-01

    A geometric definition for a magnetic charge of Abelian monopoles in SU(N) lattice gauge theories with Higgs fields is presented. The corresponding local monopole number defined for almost all field configurations does not require gauge fixing and is stable against small perturbations. Its topological content is that of a 3-cochain. A detailed prescription for calculating the local monopole number is worked out. Our method generalizes a magnetic charge definition previously invented by Phillips and Stone for SU(2).

  15. Limitations to reproductive success in the dioecious tree Rhamnus davurica.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Wang

    Full Text Available The reproductive success of a female plant in a dioecious species may be affected by pollen limitation and resource limitation. This study presents evidence that the reproductive success of the dioecious understorey tree species, Rhamnus davurica, is affected by the distance to the nearest male. The sex ratios were female-biased, although showing fluctuations in the three years of conducting the study. The mortality rate of females was higher than that of males indicating a trade-off between reproduction and survival. Altogether 49 females, designated as "focal females", were randomly selected for monitoring their reproductive status between April and October in 2010. But successful reproduction (meaning that the flowering female trees had fruit in the fruiting season was observed only in 28 females in 2011 and 16 females in 2012. The method of path analysis was applied to determine the effect of topography, local competition and proximity to the nearest male on the fruit set of the females. In the three years of the study, elevation, competition and female size had no significant effect on the fruit set. The distance to the nearest male, however, had a significant effect on fruit set. Number of fruits and fruit set were decreased with increasing distance to the nearest male. It was possible to estimate maximum fruit set, based on the comparatively large dataset. The number of fruits and the fruit set are exponentially related to the distance to the nearest male and the relationships are described by an exponential model. The results of this study support the importance of pollen limitation on the reproductive success in Rhamnus davurica.

  16. Rotating Square-Ended U-Bend Using Low-Reynolds-Number Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantinos-Stephen P. Nikas

    2005-01-01

    bend is better reproduced by the low-Re models. Turbulence levels within the rotating U-bend are underpredicted, but DSM models produce a more realistic distribution. Along the leading side, all models overpredict heat transfer levels just after the bend. Along the trailing side, the heat transfer predictions of the low-Re DSM with the NYap, are close to the measurements.

  17. Minimum required number of specimen records to develop accurate species distribution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Proosdij, van A.S.J.; Sosef, M.S.M.; Wieringa, J.J.; Raes, N.

    2016-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict the occurrence of species. Because SDMs generally use presence-only data, validation of the predicted distribution and assessing model accuracy is challenging. Model performance depends on both sample size and species’ prevalence, being t

  18. Minimum required number of specimen records to develop accurate species distribution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Proosdij, van A.S.J.; Sosef, M.S.M.; Wieringa, Jan; Raes, N.

    2015-01-01

    Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are widely used to predict the occurrence of species. Because SDMs generally use presence-only data, validation of the predicted distribution and assessing model accuracy is challenging. Model performance depends on both sample size and species’ prevalence, being

  19. Minimum required number of specimen records to develop accurate species distribution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Proosdij, van A.S.J.; Sosef, M.S.M.; Wieringa, J.J.; Raes, N.

    2016-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict the occurrence of species. Because SDMs generally use presence-only data, validation of the predicted distribution and assessing model accuracy is challenging. Model performance depends on both sample size and species’ prevalence, being

  20. Lepton number, black hole entropy and 10 to the 32 copies of the Standard Model

    CERN Document Server

    Kovalenko, Sergey; Schmidt, Ivan

    2010-01-01

    Lepton number violating processes are a typical problem in theories with a low quantum gravity scale. In this paper we examine lepton number violation (LNV) in theories with a saturated black hole bound on a large number of species. Such theories have been advocated recently as a possible solution to the hierarchy problem and an explanation of the smallness of neutrino masses. Naively one would expect black holes to introduce TeV scale LNV operators, thus generating unacceptably large rates of LNV processes. We show, however, that this does not happen in this scenario due to a complicated compensation mechanism between contributions of different Majorana neutrino states to these processes. As a result rates of LNV processes are extremely small and far beyond experimental reach, at least for the left-handed neutrino states.

  1. Comparative Study of Fatigue Damage Models Using Different Number of Classes Combined with the Rainflow Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Zengah

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Fatigue damage increases with applied load cycles in a cumulative manner. Fatigue damage models play a key role in life prediction of components and structures subjected to random loading. The aim of this paper is the examination of the performance of the “Damaged Stress Model”, proposed and validated, against other fatigue models under random loading before and after reconstruction of the load histories. To achieve this objective, some linear and nonlinear models proposed for fatigue life estimation and a batch of specimens made of 6082T6 aluminum alloy is subjected to random loading. The damage was cumulated by Miner’s rule, Damaged Stress Model (DSM, Henry model and Unified Theory (UT and random cycles were counted with a rain-flow algorithm. Experimental data on high-cycle fatigue by complex loading histories with different mean and amplitude stress values are analyzed for life calculation and model predictions are compared.

  2. Bifurcations and complex dynamics of an SIR model with the impact of the number of hospital beds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shan, Chunhua; Zhu, Huaiping

    2014-09-01

    In this paper we establish an SIR model with a standard incidence rate and a nonlinear recovery rate, formulated to consider the impact of available resource of the public health system especially the number of hospital beds. For the three dimensional model with total population regulated by both demographics and diseases incidence, we prove that the model can undergo backward bifurcation, saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation and cusp type of Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation of codimension 3. We present the bifurcation diagram near the cusp type of Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation point of codimension 3 and give epidemiological interpretation of the complex dynamical behaviors of endemic due to the variation of the number of hospital beds. This study suggests that maintaining enough number of hospital beds is crucial for the control of the infectious diseases.

  3. Kappa Number Prediction of Acacia melanoxylon Unbleached Kraft Pulps using NIR-PLSR Models with a Narrow Interval of Variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    António J.A. Santos

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available A total of 120 Acacia melanoxylon R. Br. (Australian blackwood stem discs, belonging to 20 trees from four sites in Portugal, were used in this study. The samples were kraft pulped under standard identical conditions targeted to a Kappa number of 15. A Near Infrared (NIR partial least squares regression (PLSR model was developed for the Kappa number prediction using 75 pulp samples with a narrow Kappa number variation range of 10 to 17. Very good correlations between NIR spectra of A. melanoxylon pulps and Kappa numbers were obtained. Besides the raw spectra, also pre-processed spectra with ten methods were used for PLS analysis (cross validation with 48 samples, and a test set validation was made with 27 samples. The first derivative spectra in the wavenumber range from 6110 to 5440 cm-1 yielded the best model with a root mean square error of prediction of 0.4 units of Kappa number, a coefficient of determination of 92.1%, and two PLS components, with the ratios of performance to deviation (RPD of 3.6 and zero outliers. The obtained NIR-PLSR model for Kappa number determination is sufficiently accurate to be used in screening programs and in quality control.

  4. Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology PATIENTS Patient Information What Is SART? Risks of IVF Third Party Reproduction A Patient's Guide to Assisted Reproductive Technology Frequently Asked ...

  5. Modelling Problem-Solving Situations into Number Theory Tasks: The Route towards Generalisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadopoulos, Ioannis; Iatridou, Maria

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the way two 10th graders cope with a non-standard generalisation problem that involves elementary concepts of number theory (more specifically linear Diophantine equations) in the geometrical context of a rectangle's area. Emphasis is given on how the students' past experience of problem solving (expressed through interplay…

  6. Impact of 900 MHz electromagnetic field exposure on main male reproductive hormone levels: a Rattus norvegicus model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepehrimanesh, Masood; Saeb, Mehdi; Nazifi, Saeed; Kazemipour, Nasrin; Jelodar, Gholamali; Saeb, Saeedeh

    2014-09-01

    This work analyzes the effects of radiofrequency-electromagnetic field (RF-EMF) exposure on the reproductive system of male rats, assessed by measuring circulating levels of FSH, LH, inhibin B, activin B, prolactin, and testosterone. Twenty adult male Sprague-Dawley rats (180 ± 10 g) were exposed to 900 MHz RF-EMF in four equal separated groups. The duration of exposure was 1, 2, and 4 h/day over a period of 30 days and sham-exposed animals were kept under the same environmental conditions as the exposed group except with no RF-EMF exposure. Before the exposure, at 15 and 30 days of exposure, determination of the abovementioned hormone levels was performed using ELISA. At the end of the experiment, FSH and LH values of the long time exposure (LTE) group were significantly higher than the sham-exposed group (p exposure (p exposure (p exposure and it may possibly affect reproductive functions. However, testosterone and inhibin B concentrations as a fertility marker and spermatogenesis were decreased significantly.

  7. Impact of 900 MHz electromagnetic field exposure on main male reproductive hormone levels: a Rattus norvegicus model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepehrimanesh, Masood; Saeb, Mehdi; Nazifi, Saeed; Kazemipour, Nasrin; Jelodar, Gholamali; Saeb, Saeedeh

    2014-09-01

    This work analyzes the effects of radiofrequency-electromagnetic field (RF-EMF) exposure on the reproductive system of male rats, assessed by measuring circulating levels of FSH, LH, inhibin B, activin B, prolactin, and testosterone. Twenty adult male Sprague-Dawley rats (180 ± 10 g) were exposed to 900 MHz RF-EMF in four equal separated groups. The duration of exposure was 1, 2, and 4 h/day over a period of 30 days and sham-exposed animals were kept under the same environmental conditions as the exposed group except with no RF-EMF exposure. Before the exposure, at 15 and 30 days of exposure, determination of the abovementioned hormone levels was performed using ELISA. At the end of the experiment, FSH and LH values of the long time exposure (LTE) group were significantly higher than the sham-exposed group ( p exposure ( p exposure ( p exposure and it may possibly affect reproductive functions. However, testosterone and inhibin B concentrations as a fertility marker and spermatogenesis were decreased significantly.

  8. ROLE OF SEROTONIN IN FISH REPRODUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parvathy ePrasad

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The neuroendocrine mechanism regulates reproduction through the hypothalamo-pituitary-gonadal (HPG axis which is evolutionarily conserved in vertebrates. The HPG axis is regulated by a variety of internal as well as external factors. Serotonin, a monoamine neurotransmitter, is involved in a wide range of reproductive functions. In mammals, serotonin regulates sexual behaviours, gonadotropin release and gonadotropin-release hormone (GnRH secretion. However, the serotonin system in teleost may play unique role in the control of reproduction as the mechanism of reproductive control in teleosts is not always the same as in the mammalian models. In fish, the serotonin system is also regulated by natural environmental factors as well as chemical substances. In particular, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs are commonly detected as pharmaceutical contaminants in the natural environment. Those factors may influence fish reproductive functions via the serotonin system. This review summarizes the functional significance of serotonin in the teleosts reproduction.

  9. STUDY ON NEW PASSIVE SCALAR FLUX MODEL WITH DIFFUSIVITY OF COMPLEX NUMBER

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The turbulent passive scalar fluxes were studied by separately considering the contributions of small-eddy motions and large-eddy ones.Explicit algebraic approximation was achieved for both small-eddy and large-eddy scalar fluxes.Especially, the large-eddy scalar flux was modelled with complex diffusivity.The singular difficulties in usual algebraic scalar models, do not occur any more in this model.In addition, this new model provides a new way to reasonably describe the negative transport phenomena appearing in asymmetric turbulent flows.

  10. Model-Observation Comparisons of Electron Number Densities in the Coma of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko during January 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigren, E.; Altwegg, K.; Edberg, N. J. T.; Eriksson, A. I.; Galand, M.; Henri, P.; Johansson, F.; Odelstad, E.; Tzou, C.-Y.; Valliéres, X.

    2016-09-01

    During 2015 January 9-11, at a heliocentric distance of ˜2.58-2.57 au, the ESA Rosetta spacecraft resided at a cometocentric distance of ˜28 km from the nucleus of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, sweeping the terminator at northern latitudes of 43°N-58°N. Measurements by the Rosetta Orbiter Spectrometer for Ion and Neutral Analysis/Comet Pressure Sensor (ROSINA/COPS) provided neutral number densities. We have computed modeled electron number densities using the neutral number densities as input into a Field Free Chemistry Free model, assuming H2O dominance and ion-electron pair formation by photoionization only. A good agreement (typically within 25%) is found between the modeled electron number densities and those observed from measurements by the Mutual Impedance Probe (RPC/MIP) and the Langmuir Probe (RPC/LAP), both being subsystems of the Rosetta Plasma Consortium. This indicates that ions along the nucleus-spacecraft line were strongly coupled to the neutrals, moving radially outward with about the same speed. Such a statement, we propose, can be further tested by observations of H3O+/H2O+ number density ratios and associated comparisons with model results.

  11. Assessment of Poisson, probit and linear models for genetic analysis of presence and number of black spots in Corriedale sheep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peñagaricano, F; Urioste, J I; Naya, H; de los Campos, G; Gianola, D

    2011-04-01

    Black skin spots are associated with pigmented fibres in wool, an important quality fault. Our objective was to assess alternative models for genetic analysis of presence (BINBS) and number (NUMBS) of black spots in Corriedale sheep. During 2002-08, 5624 records from 2839 animals in two flocks, aged 1 through 6 years, were taken at shearing. Four models were considered: linear and probit for BINBS and linear and Poisson for NUMBS. All models included flock-year and age as fixed effects and animal and permanent environmental as random effects. Models were fitted to the whole data set and were also compared based on their predictive ability in cross-validation. Estimates of heritability ranged from 0.154 to 0.230 for BINBS and 0.269 to 0.474 for NUMBS. For BINBS, the probit model fitted slightly better to the data than the linear model. Predictions of random effects from these models were highly correlated, and both models exhibited similar predictive ability. For NUMBS, the Poisson model, with a residual term to account for overdispersion, performed better than the linear model in goodness of fit and predictive ability. Predictions of random effects from the Poisson model were more strongly correlated with those from BINBS models than those from the linear model. Overall, the use of probit or linear models for BINBS and of a Poisson model with a residual for NUMBS seems a reasonable choice for genetic selection purposes in Corriedale sheep.

  12. SYMMETRIC MODE INSTABILITY OF THE SLIPFLOW MODEL FOR FLOWS IN A MICROCHANNEL WITH A VANISHING REYNOLDS NUMBER

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    甘才俊; 吴子牛

    2003-01-01

    The slipflow model is usually used to study microflows when the Knudsen number lies between 0.01 and 0.1. The instability due to microscale effect seems to have never been studied before.In this paper we present preliminary results for the instability (not physical instability) of this model when applied to microchannel flow with a vanishing Reynolds number. The present paper is restricted to symmetrical mode. Both first-order and second-order slip boundary conditions will be considered.

  13. Comparative study of measured and modelled number concentrations of nanoparticles in an urban street canyon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kumar, Prashant; Garmory, Andrew; Ketzel, Matthias

    2009-01-01

    Pollution Model (OSPM) and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code FLUENT. All models disregarded any particle dynamics. CFD simulations have been carried out in a simplified geometry of the selected street canyon. Four different sizes of emission sources have been used in the CFD simulations to assess...

  14. 438 Optimal Number of States in Hidden Markov Models and its ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    (Al-Ani, et al., 2007) or Artificial Neural Networks (Zheng & Koenig, n.d.) can ... A Hidden Markov Model (R.Rabiner, 1989) is a stochastic finite state machine ..... likelihood of other models (i.e. for different states), the learning procedure is.

  15. Mixture experiment techniques for reducing the number of components applied for modeling waste glass sodium release

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piepel, G.; Redgate, T. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States). Statistics Group

    1997-12-01

    Statistical mixture experiment techniques were applied to a waste glass data set to investigate the effects of the glass components on Product Consistency Test (PCT) sodium release (NR) and to develop a model for PCT NR as a function of the component proportions. The mixture experiment techniques indicate that the waste glass system can be reduced from nine to four components for purposes of modeling PCT NR. Empirical mixture models containing four first-order terms and one or two second-order terms fit the data quite well, and can be used to predict the NR of any glass composition in the model domain. The mixture experiment techniques produce a better model in less time than required by another approach.

  16. Human reproduction: current status

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Roberto Izzo

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available SUMMARY The concern about the maintenance of the human species has existed since the earliest civilizations. Progress in the diagnosis and treatment of infertility has led to the development of assisted reproductive techniques (ART which, along with the evolution of genetics and molecular biology studies, have contributed in a concrete way to the management of infertile couples. Classic in vitro fertilization was initially developed 35 years ago for the treatment of women with tubal blockage, however, it remains inaccessible to a significant proportion of infertile couples around the world. This can be explained by the lack of specialized clinics in some countries and by the high cost of the procedures. Efforts have been employed to increase the number of treatment cycles for assisted reproduction, as for example, the creation of low-cost programs. Even today, infertility remains a problem of global proportions, affecting millions of couples. The estimate of the incidence of infertility is uncertain, mainly because of the criteria used for its definition. This article aims to review the most important aspects, succinctly, regarding the incidence, etiology, and treatment options available to infertile couples.

  17. Human reproduction: current status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izzo, Carlos Roberto; Monteleone, Pedro Augusto Araújo; Serafini, Paulo C

    2015-01-01

    The concern about the maintenance of the human species has existed since the earliest civilizations. Progress in the diagnosis and treatment of infertility has led to the development of assisted reproductive techniques (ART) which, along with the evolution of genetics and molecular biology studies, have contributed in a concrete way to the management of infertile couples. Classic in vitro fertilization was initially developed 35 years ago for the treatment of women with tubal blockage, however, it remains inaccessible to a significant proportion of infertile couples around the world. This can be explained by the lack of specialized clinics in some countries and by the high cost of the procedures. Efforts have been employed to increase the number of treatment cycles for assisted reproduction, as for example, the creation of low-cost programs. Even today, infertility remains a problem of global proportions, affecting millions of couples. The estimate of the incidence of infertility is uncertain, mainly because of the criteria used for its definition. This article aims to review the most important aspects, succinctly, regarding the incidence, etiology, and treatment options available to infertile couples.

  18. Nearfield Unsteady Pressures at Cruise Mach Numbers for a Model Scale Counter-Rotation Open Rotor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, David B.

    2012-01-01

    An open rotor experiment was conducted at cruise Mach numbers and the unsteady pressure in the nearfield was measured. The system included extensive performance measurements, which can help provide insight into the noise generating mechanisms in the absence of flow measurements. A set of data acquired at a constant blade pitch angle but various rotor speeds was examined. The tone levels generated by the front and rear rotor were found to be nearly equal when the thrust was evenly balanced between rotors.

  19. Measured and modelled cloud condensation nuclei number concentration at the high alpine site Jungfraujoch

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Jurányi

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric aerosol particles are able to act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN and are therefore important for the climate and the hydrological cycle, but their properties are not fully understood. Total CCN number concentrations at 10 different supersaturations in the range of SS=0.12–1.18% were measured in May 2008 at the remote high alpine research station, Jungfraujoch, Switzerland (3580 m a.s.l.. In this paper, we present a closure study between measured and predicted CCN number concentrations. CCN predictions were done using dry number size distribution (scanning particle mobility sizer, SMPS and bulk chemical composition data (aerosol mass spectrometer, AMS, and multi-angle absorption photometer, MAAP in a simplified Köhler theory. The predicted and the measured CCN number concentrations agree very well and are highly correlated. A sensitivity study showed that the temporal variability of the chemical composition at the Jungfraujoch can be neglected for a reliable CCN prediction, whereas it is important to know the mean chemical composition. The exact bias introduced by using a too low or too high hygroscopicity parameter for CCN prediction was further quantified and shown to be substantial for the lowest supersaturation.

    Despite the high average organic mass fraction (~45% in the fine mode, there was no indication that the surface tension was substantially reduced at the point of CCN activation. A comparison between hygroscopicity tandem differential mobility analyzer (HTDMA, AMS/MAAP, and CCN derived κ values showed that HTDMA measurements can be used to determine particle hygroscopicity required for CCN predictions if no suitable chemical composition data are available.

  20. Measured and modelled cloud condensation nuclei number concentration at the high alpine site Jungfraujoch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jurányi, Z.; Gysel, M.; Weingartner, E.; Decarlo, P. F.; Kammermann, L.; Baltensperger, U.

    2010-08-01

    Atmospheric aerosol particles are able to act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and are therefore important for the climate and the hydrological cycle, but their properties are not fully understood. Total CCN number concentrations at 10 different supersaturations in the range of SS=0.12-1.18% were measured in May 2008 at the remote high alpine research station, Jungfraujoch, Switzerland (3580 m a.s.l.). In this paper, we present a closure study between measured and predicted CCN number concentrations. CCN predictions were done using dry number size distribution (scanning particle mobility sizer, SMPS) and bulk chemical composition data (aerosol mass spectrometer, AMS, and multi-angle absorption photometer, MAAP) in a simplified Köhler theory. The predicted and the measured CCN number concentrations agree very well and are highly correlated. A sensitivity study showed that the temporal variability of the chemical composition at the Jungfraujoch can be neglected for a reliable CCN prediction, whereas it is important to know the mean chemical composition. The exact bias introduced by using a too low or too high hygroscopicity parameter for CCN prediction was further quantified and shown to be substantial for the lowest supersaturation. Despite the high average organic mass fraction (~45%) in the fine mode, there was no indication that the surface tension was substantially reduced at the point of CCN activation. A comparison between hygroscopicity tandem differential mobility analyzer (HTDMA), AMS/MAAP, and CCN derived κ values showed that HTDMA measurements can be used to determine particle hygroscopicity required for CCN predictions if no suitable chemical composition data are available.

  1. On Spatial Resolution in Habitat Models: Can Small-scale Forest Structure Explain Capercaillie Numbers?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilse Storch

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the effects of spatial resolution on the performance and applicability of habitat models in wildlife management and conservation. A Habitat Suitability Index (HSI model for the Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus in the Bavarian Alps, Germany, is presented. The model was exclusively built on non-spatial, small-scale variables of forest structure and without any consideration of landscape patterns. The main goal was to assess whether a HSI model developed from small-scale habitat preferences can explain differences in population abundance at larger scales. To validate the model, habitat variables and indirect sign of Capercaillie use (such as feathers or feces were mapped in six study areas based on a total of 2901 20 m radius (for habitat variables and 5 m radius sample plots (for Capercaillie sign. First, the model's representation of Capercaillie habitat preferences was assessed. Habitat selection, as expressed by Ivlev's electivity index, was closely related to HSI scores, increased from poor to excellent habitat suitability, and was consistent across all study areas. Then, habitat use was related to HSI scores at different spatial scales. Capercaillie use was best predicted from HSI scores at the small scale. Lowering the spatial resolution of the model stepwise to 36-ha, 100-ha, 400-ha, and 2000-ha areas and relating Capercaillie use to aggregated HSI scores resulted in a deterioration of fit at larger scales. Most importantly, there were pronounced differences in Capercaillie abundance at the scale of study areas, which could not be explained by the HSI model. The results illustrate that even if a habitat model correctly reflects a species' smaller scale habitat preferences, its potential to predict population abundance at larger scales may remain limited.

  2. Reproductive tract microbiome in assisted reproductive technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franasiak, Jason M; Scott, Richard T

    2015-12-01

    The human microbiome has gained much attention recently for its role in health and disease. This interest has come as we have begun to scratch the surface of the complexity of what has been deemed to be our "second genome" through initiatives such as the Human Microbiome Project. Microbes have been hypothesized to be involved in the physiology and pathophysiology of assisted reproduction since before the first success in IVF. Although the data supporting or refuting this hypothesis remain somewhat sparse, thanks to sequencing data from the 16S rRNA subunit, we have begun to characterize the microbiome in the male and female reproductive tracts and understand how this may play a role in reproductive competence. In this review, we discuss what is known about the microbiome of the reproductive tract as it pertains to assisted reproductive technologies.

  3. On the paradoxical evolution of the number of photons in a new model of interpolating Hamiltonians

    CERN Document Server

    Valverde, C

    2016-01-01

    We introduce a new Hamiltonian model which interpolates between the Jaynes-Cummings model and other types of such Hamiltonians. It works with two interpolating parameters, rather than one as traditional. Taking advantage of this greater degree of freedom, we can perform continuous interpolation between the various types of these Hamiltonians. As applications we discuss a paradox raised in literature and compare the time evolution of photon statistics obtained in the various interpolating models. The role played by the average excitation in these comparisons is also highlighted.

  4. Prandtl number effects in MRT lattice Boltzmann models for shocked and unshocked compressible fluids

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    This paper constructs a new multiple relaxation time lattice Boltzmann model which is not only for the shocked compressible fluids,but also for the unshocked compressible fluids.To make the model work for unshocked compressible fluids,a key step is to modify the collision operators of energy flux so that the viscous coefficient in momentum equation is consistent with that in energy equation even in the unshocked system.The unnecessity of the modification for systems under strong shock is analyzed.The model ...

  5. Supersymmetric Froggatt-Nielsen Models with Baryon- and Lepton-Number Violation

    CERN Document Server

    Dreiner, H K; Thormeier, Marc

    2004-01-01

    We systematically investigate the embedding of U(1)_X Froggatt-Nielsen models in local supersymmetry. We restrict ourselves to models with a single flavon field. We do not impose a discrete symmetry by hand, e.g. R-parity, baryon-parity or lepton-parity. Thus we determine the order of magnitude of the baryon- and/or lepton violating coupling constants through the Froggatt-Nielsen mechanism. We then scrutinize whether the predicted coupling constants are in accord with weak or GUT scale constraints. Many models turn out to be incompatible.

  6. Squalus cubensis Reproduction Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Reproductive data from Squalus cubensis (Cuban dogfish) were opportunistically collected from 2005-2012. Data include those necessary to examine reproductive cycle,...

  7. Global stability for delay-dependent HTLV-I model with CTL immune response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan; Liu, Jun

    2016-06-01

    We present a delay-dependent HTLV-I model with CTL immune response. The basic reproduction number is obtained for the existence of positive steady state. By constructing suitable Lyapunov functions, when the basic reproduction number is less than one, the infection-free steady state is globally asymptotically stable; when the basic reproduction number is greater than one, the infected steady state is globally asymptotically stable.

  8. Reproductive Outsiders

    OpenAIRE

    Millbank, Jenni

    2015-01-01

    This body of work examines law’s response to non-genetic families. I have always centred the experience of family formation and family life such that I have traversed and linked distinct legal sites and doctrines, examining access to family formation avenues, models for legal recognition of families once formed and, latterly, legal responses to information sharing and broader kinship practices among genetically related individuals in childhood and later life. \\ud \\ud In doing so I have made a...

  9. Reproductive performance in East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) may be affected by organohalogen contaminants as shown by physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne, Christian; Gustavson, Kim; Rigét, Frank F.

    2009-01-01

    quotient (RQ) evaluation to more quantitatively evaluate the effect risk on reproduction (embryotoxicity and teratogenicity) based on the critical body residue (CBR) concept and using a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model. We applied modelling approaches to PCBs, p,p′-DDE, dieldrin......, oxychlordane, HCHs, HCB, PBDEs and PFOS in East Greenland polar bears based on known OHC pharmacokinetics and dynamics in laboratory rats (Rattus rattus). The results showed that subcutaneous adipose tissue concentrations of dieldrin (range: 79–1271 ng g−1 lw) and PCBs (range: 4128–53 923 ng g−1 lw) reported...... and for dieldrin (range: 43–640 ng g−1 lw), PCBs (range: 3491–13 243 ng g−1 lw) and PFOS (range: 1332–6160 ng g−1 ww) in the year 2006. The concentrations of oxychlordane, DDTs, HCB and HCHs in polar bears resulted in RQs

  10. Comment on ``Infrared Fixed Point Structure in Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model with Baryon and Lepton Number Violation"

    OpenAIRE

    Mambrini, Y.; Moultaka, G.

    2001-01-01

    We reconsider the Infrared Quasi Fixed Points which were studied recently in the literature in the context of the Baryon and Lepton number violating Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (hep-ph/0011274). The complete analysis requires further care and reveals more structure than what was previously shown. The formalism we develop here is quite general, and can be readily applied to a large class of models.

  11. Re-evaluation of Predictive Models in Light of New Data: Sunspot Number Version 2.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gkana, A.; Zachilas, L.

    2016-10-01

    The original version of the Zürich sunspot number (Sunspot Number Version 1.0) has been revised by an entirely new series (Sunspot Number Version 2.0). We re-evaluate the performance of our previously proposed models for predicting solar activity in the light of the revised data. We perform new monthly and yearly predictions using the Sunspot Number Version 2.0 as input data and compare them with our original predictions (using the Sunspot Number Version 1.0 series as input data). We show that our previously proposed models are still able to produce quite accurate solar-activity predictions despite the full revision of the Zürich Sunspot Number, indicating that there is no significant degradation in their performance. Extending our new monthly predictions (July 2013 - August 2015) by 50 time-steps (months) ahead in time (from September 2015 to October 2019), we provide evidence that we are heading into a period of dramatically low solar activity. Finally, our new future long-term predictions endorse our previous claim that a prolonged solar activity minimum is expected to occur, lasting up to the year ≈ 2100.

  12. Low Reynolds number kappa-epsilon and empirical transition models for oscillatory pipe flow and heat transfer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Christopher

    1993-11-01

    Stirling engine heat exchangers are shell-and-tube type with oscillatory flow (zero-mean velocity) for the inner fluid. This heat transfer process involves laminar-transition turbulent flow motions under oscillatory flow conditions. A low Reynolds number kappa-epsilon model, (Lam-Bremhorst form), was utilized in the present study to simulate fluid flow and heat transfer in a circular tube. An empirical transition model was used to activate the low Reynolds number k-e model at the appropriate time within the cycle for a given axial location within the tube. The computational results were compared with experimental flow and heat transfer data for: (1) velocity profiles, (2) kinetic energy of turbulence, (3) skin friction factor, (4) temperature profiles, and (5) wall heat flux. The experimental data were obtained for flow in a tube (38 mm diameter and 60 diameter long), with the maximum Reynolds number based on velocity being Re(sub max) = 11840, a dimensionless frequency (Valensi number) of Va = 80.2, at three axial locations X/D = 16, 30 and 44. The agreement between the computations and the experiment is excellent in the laminar portion of the cycle and good in the turbulent portion. Moreover, the location of transition was predicted accurately. The Low Reynolds Number kappa-epsilon model, together with an empirical transition model, is proposed herein to generate the wall heat flux values at different operating parameters than the experimental conditions. Those computational data can be used for testing the much simpler and less accurate one dimensional models utilized in 1-D Stirling Engine design codes.

  13. Artificial Neural Network to Modeling Zero-inflated Count Data: Application to Predicting Number of Return to Blood Donation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haghani, Shima; Sedehi, Morteza; Kheiri, Soleiman

    2017-09-02

    Traditional statistical models often are based on certain presuppositions and limitations that may not presence in actual data and lead to turbulence in estimation or prediction. In these situations, artificial neural networks (ANNs) could be suitable alternative rather than classical statistical methods.  A prospective cohort study. The study was conducted in Shahrekord Blood Transfusion Center, Shahrekord, central Iran, on blood donors from 2008-2009. The accuracy of the proposed model to prediction of number of return to blood donations was compared with classical statistical models. A number of 864 donors who had a first-time successful donation were followed for five years. Number of return for blood donation was considered as response variable. Poisson regression (PR), negative binomial regression (NBR), zero-inflated Poisson regression (ZIPR) and zero-inflated negative binomial regression (ZINBR) as well as ANN model were fitted to data. MSE criterion was used to compare models. To fitting the models, STATISTICA 10 and, R 3.2.2 was used RESULTS: The MSE of PR, NBR, ZIPR, ZINBR and ANN models was obtained 2.71, 1.01, 1.54, 0.094 and 0.056 for the training and 4.05, 9.89, 3.99, 2.53 and 0.27 for the test data, respectively. The ANN model had the least MSE in both training, and test data set and has a better performance than classic models. ANN could be a suitable alternative for modeling such data because of fewer restrictions.

  14. Modeling and designing of variable-period and variable-pole-number undulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Davidyuk

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The concept of permanent-magnet variable-period undulator (VPU was proposed several years ago and has found few implementations so far. The VPUs have some advantages as compared with conventional undulators, e.g., a wider range of radiation wavelength tuning and the option to increase the number of poles for shorter periods. Both these advantages will be realized in the VPU under development now at Budker INP. In this paper, we present the results of 2D and 3D magnetic field simulations and discuss some design features of this VPU.

  15. The statistical distribution of the number of counted scintillation photons in digital silicon photomultipliers: model and validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dam, Herman T; Seifert, Stefan; Schaart, Dennis R

    2012-08-07

    In the design and application of scintillation detectors based on silicon photomultipliers (SiPMs), e.g. in positron emission tomography imaging, it is important to understand and quantify the non-proportionality of the SiPM response due to saturation, crosstalk and dark counts. A new type of SiPM, the so-called digital silicon photomultiplier (dSiPM), has recently been introduced. Here, we develop a model of the probability distribution of the number of fired microcells, i.e. the number of counted scintillation photons, in response to a given amount of energy deposited in a scintillator optically coupled to a dSiPM. Based on physical and functional principles, the model elucidates the statistical behavior of dSiPMs. The model takes into account the photon detection efficiency of the detector; the light yield, excess variance and time profile of the scintillator; and the crosstalk probability, dark count rate, integration time and the number of microcells of the dSiPM. Furthermore, relations for the expectation value and the variance of the number of fired cells are deduced. These relations are applied in the experimental validation of the model using a dSiPM coupled to a LSO:Ce,Ca scintillator. Finally, we propose an accurate method for the correction of energy spectra measured with dSiPM-based scintillation detectors.

  16. An efficient method for computing genus expansions and counting numbers in the Hermitian matrix model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alvarez, Gabriel, E-mail: galvarez@fis.ucm.e [Departamento de Fisica Teorica II, Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas, Universidad Complutense, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Martinez Alonso, Luis, E-mail: luism@fis.ucm.e [Departamento de Fisica Teorica II, Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas, Universidad Complutense, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Medina, Elena, E-mail: elena.medina@uca.e [Departamento de Matematicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Cadiz, 11510 Puerto Real, Cadiz (Spain)

    2011-07-11

    We present a method to compute the genus expansion of the free energy of Hermitian matrix models from the large N expansion of the recurrence coefficients of the associated family of orthogonal polynomials. The method is based on the Bleher-Its deformation of the model, on its associated integral representation of the free energy, and on a method for solving the string equation which uses the resolvent of the Lax operator of the underlying Toda hierarchy. As a byproduct we obtain an efficient algorithm to compute generating functions for the enumeration of labeled k-maps which does not require the explicit expressions of the coefficients of the topological expansion. Finally we discuss the regularization of singular one-cut models within this approach.

  17. A Validated All-Pressure Fluid Drop Model and Lewis Number Effects for a Binary Mixture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harstad, K.; Bellan, J.

    1999-01-01

    The differences between subcritical liquid drop and supercritical fluid drop behavior are discussed. Under subcritical, evaporative high emission rate conditions, a film layer is present in the inner part of the drop surface which contributes to the unique determination of the boundary conditions; it is this film layer which contributes to the solution's convective-diffusive character. In contrast, under supercritical condition as the boundary conditions contain a degree of arbitrariness due to the absence of a surface, and the solution has then a purely diffusive character. Results from simulations of a free fluid drop under no-gravity conditions are compared to microgravity experimental data from suspended, large drop experiments at high, low and intermediary temperatures and in a range of pressures encompassing the sub-and supercritical regime. Despite the difference between the conditions of the simulations and experiments (suspension vs. free floating), the time rate of variation of the drop diameter square is remarkably well predicted in the linear curve regime. The drop diameter is determined in the simulations from the location of the maximum density gradient, and agrees well with the data. It is also shown that the classical calculation of the Lewis number gives qualitatively erroneous results at supercritical conditions, but that an effective Lewis number previously defined gives qualitatively correct estimates of the length scales for heat and mass transfer at all pressures.

  18. Temporal stability of magic-number metal clusters: beyond the shell closing model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desireddy, Anil; Kumar, Santosh; Guo, Jingshu; Bolan, Michael D.; Griffith, Wendell P.; Bigioni, Terry P.

    2013-02-01

    The anomalous stability of magic-number metal clusters has been associated with closed geometric and electronic shells and the opening of HOMO-LUMO gaps. Despite this enhanced stability, magic-number clusters are known to decay and react in the condensed phase to form other products. Improving our understanding of their decay mechanisms and developing strategies to control or eliminate cluster instability is a priority, to develop a more complete theory of their stability, to avoid studying mixtures of clusters produced by the decay of purified materials, and to enable technology development. Silver clusters are sufficiently reactive to facilitate the study of the ambient temporal stability of magic-number metal clusters and to begin to understand their decay mechanisms. Here, the solution phase stability of a series of silver:glutathione (Ag:SG) clusters was studied as a function of size, pH and chemical environment. Cluster stability was found to be a non-monotonic function of size. Electrophoretic separations showed that the dominant mechanism involved the redistribution of mass toward smaller sizes, where the products were almost exclusively previously known cluster sizes. Optical absorption spectra showed that the smaller clusters evolved toward the two most stable cluster sizes. The net surface charge was found to play an important role in cluster stabilization although charge screening had no effect on stability, contrary to DLVO theory. The decay mechanism was found to involve the loss of Ag+ ions and silver glutathionates. Clusters could be stabilized by the addition of Ag+ ions and destabilized by either the addition of glutathione or the removal of Ag+ ions. Clusters were also found to be most stable in near neutral pH, where they had a net negative surface charge. These results provide new mechanistic insights into the control of post-synthesis stability and chemical decay of magic-number metal clusters, which could be used to develop design principles

  19. Reproductive effort in viscous populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pen, Ido

    2000-01-01

    Here I study a kin selection model of reproductive effort, the allocation of resources to fecundity versus survival, in a patch-structured population. Breeding females remain in the same patch for life. Offspring have costly, partial long-distance dispersal and compete for breeding sites, which beco

  20. Hyperprolactinemia and male reproductive functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.F.A. Weber (Robert)

    1983-01-01

    textabstractIn this thesis some effects of PRL on reproductive functions have been investigated PRL-secreting pituitary adenoma. animal model has been used: For in men with a comparison an In. rats hyperprolactinemia has been induced by sub-cutaneous inoculation of a PRL- and ACTH-secreting transpla