WorldWideScience

Sample records for model relating daily

  1. The Earth's Shape and Movements: Teachers' Perception of the Relations Between Daily Observation and Scientific Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Flávia Polati; Leite, Cristina

    2015-07-01

    The Earth’s shape and movements are some of the most common issues in official documents and research studies of astronomy education. Many didactic proposals suggest these issues within observational astronomy. Therefore, we present in this paper some of the main results of a research study of the teachers’ perception of the relations between the knowledge from daily observation and scientific models currently accepted about the “earth’s shape and movements”. Data were obtained in application of the didactic proposal during a teacher training course for teachers from São Paulo, have been constructed with the dynamics “Three Pedagogical Moments” and guided by some of the central ideas of the educator Paulo Freire. The results indicate that a small proportion of teachers seem to understand some of the relations of “apparent contradictions” and “limitations” with the concepts of spatiality, and many of them argued based only on vague phrases or "buzzwords", unconnected to the problem explored. The difficulties of teachers to relate elements of daily observation with scientific models seem to indicate a necessity to approach some these aspects with the astronomical knowledge in the teacher training courses.

  2. System Model of Daily Sediment Yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, T. C.; Dickinson, W. T.

    1980-06-01

    Input-output systems concepts have been applied to the modeling of daily runoff-sediment yield of the Thames River in southern Ontario, Canada. Spectral and correlation techniques have been used to construct a parsimonious model of daily sediment yields. It is shown that a linear discrete dynamic model is possible in terms of the log-transformed daily runoff and sediment yield sequences. The fluvial system of the Thames River watershed exhibits a weak memory on a daily basis, and the noise component corrupting the watershed fluvial system resembles a white noise process.

  3. Cystic Fibrosis-Related Diabetes (CFRD): Daily Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cystic Fibrosis-Related Diabetes (CFRD): Daily Management September 20, 2011 This Web cast is supported by an unrestricted ... Moran, MD Professor, Pediatric Endocrinology University of Minnesota Cystic Fibrosis-Related Diabetes (CFRD): Daily Management September 20, 2011 ...

  4. Daily affect relations in fibromyalgia patients reveal positive affective disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finan, Patrick H; Zautra, Alex J; Davis, Mary C

    2009-05-01

    To examine daily positive affective disturbance in the context of negative affect (NA) and pain among patients with fibromyalgia (FM) to determine a) if FM patients experience a deficit in daily positive affect (PA) relative to osteoarthritis (OA) patients; b) if FM patients differ from OA patients in the day-to-day relations of PA and NA; and c) if patients diagnosed with both OA and FM differ from patients with either OA-only or FM-only with respect to major outcomes. A total of 260 women with physician-diagnosed OA (n = 106), FM (n = 53), or OA/FM (n = 101) completed a 30-day electronic diary. Participants were assessed once daily on levels of PA, NA, and pain. Multilevel models indicated that FM patients had less overall PA than OA patients and exhibited a stronger inverse PA-NA relation. Analyses further suggest that the OA/FM group may have been the most impaired of the three included in our study. This group was responsible for a lagged effect of PA on both affects, whereby high PA days resulted in low next-day PA and high next-day NA. FM patients exhibit a PA disturbance compared with OA patients. This disturbance is reflected by an overall deficit in PA and an inability to sustain PA in the face of pain and NA. Patients with both OA and FM may represent a subgroup of FM that is at particular risk for dysregulation of PA.

  5. Modeling maximum daily temperature using a varying coefficient regression model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han Li; Xinwei Deng; Dong-Yum Kim; Eric P. Smith

    2014-01-01

    Relationships between stream water and air temperatures are often modeled using linear or nonlinear regression methods. Despite a strong relationship between water and air temperatures and a variety of models that are effective for data summarized on a weekly basis, such models did not yield consistently good predictions for summaries such as daily maximum temperature...

  6. SU-F-R-41: Regularized PCA Can Model Treatment-Related Changes in Head and Neck Patients Using Daily CBCTs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chetvertkov, M [Wayne State University, Detroit, MI (United States); Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, MI (United States); Siddiqui, F; Chetty, I; Kumarasiri, A; Liu, C; Gordon, J [Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, MI (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To use daily cone beam CTs (CBCTs) to develop regularized principal component analysis (PCA) models of anatomical changes in head and neck (H&N) patients, to guide replanning decisions in adaptive radiation therapy (ART). Methods: Known deformations were applied to planning CT (pCT) images of 10 H&N patients to model several different systematic anatomical changes. A Pinnacle plugin was used to interpolate systematic changes over 35 fractions, generating a set of 35 synthetic CTs for each patient. Deformation vector fields (DVFs) were acquired between the pCT and synthetic CTs and random fraction-to-fraction changes were superimposed on the DVFs. Standard non-regularized and regularized patient-specific PCA models were built using the DVFs. The ability of PCA to extract the known deformations was quantified. PCA models were also generated from clinical CBCTs, for which the deformations and DVFs were not known. It was hypothesized that resulting eigenvectors/eigenfunctions with largest eigenvalues represent the major anatomical deformations during the course of treatment. Results: As demonstrated with quantitative results in the supporting document regularized PCA is more successful than standard PCA at capturing systematic changes early in the treatment. Regularized PCA is able to detect smaller systematic changes against the background of random fraction-to-fraction changes. To be successful at guiding ART, regularized PCA should be coupled with models of when anatomical changes occur: early, late or throughout the treatment course. Conclusion: The leading eigenvector/eigenfunction from the both PCA approaches can tentatively be identified as a major systematic change during radiotherapy course when systematic changes are large enough with respect to random fraction-to-fraction changes. In all cases the regularized PCA approach appears to be more reliable at capturing systematic changes, enabling dosimetric consequences to be projected once trends are

  7. SU-F-R-41: Regularized PCA Can Model Treatment-Related Changes in Head and Neck Patients Using Daily CBCTs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chetvertkov, M; Siddiqui, F; Chetty, I; Kumarasiri, A; Liu, C; Gordon, J

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To use daily cone beam CTs (CBCTs) to develop regularized principal component analysis (PCA) models of anatomical changes in head and neck (H&N) patients, to guide replanning decisions in adaptive radiation therapy (ART). Methods: Known deformations were applied to planning CT (pCT) images of 10 H&N patients to model several different systematic anatomical changes. A Pinnacle plugin was used to interpolate systematic changes over 35 fractions, generating a set of 35 synthetic CTs for each patient. Deformation vector fields (DVFs) were acquired between the pCT and synthetic CTs and random fraction-to-fraction changes were superimposed on the DVFs. Standard non-regularized and regularized patient-specific PCA models were built using the DVFs. The ability of PCA to extract the known deformations was quantified. PCA models were also generated from clinical CBCTs, for which the deformations and DVFs were not known. It was hypothesized that resulting eigenvectors/eigenfunctions with largest eigenvalues represent the major anatomical deformations during the course of treatment. Results: As demonstrated with quantitative results in the supporting document regularized PCA is more successful than standard PCA at capturing systematic changes early in the treatment. Regularized PCA is able to detect smaller systematic changes against the background of random fraction-to-fraction changes. To be successful at guiding ART, regularized PCA should be coupled with models of when anatomical changes occur: early, late or throughout the treatment course. Conclusion: The leading eigenvector/eigenfunction from the both PCA approaches can tentatively be identified as a major systematic change during radiotherapy course when systematic changes are large enough with respect to random fraction-to-fraction changes. In all cases the regularized PCA approach appears to be more reliable at capturing systematic changes, enabling dosimetric consequences to be projected once trends are

  8. Stochastic modelling of daily rainfall sequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buishand, T.A.

    1977-01-01

    Rainfall series of different climatic regions were analysed with the aim of generating daily rainfall sequences. A survey of the data is given in I, 1. When analysing daily rainfall sequences one must be aware of the following points:
    a. Seasonality. Because of seasonal variation

  9. Relationship of Dyadic Closeness with Work-Related Stress: A Daily Diary Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavee, Yoav; Ben-Ari, Adital

    2007-01-01

    We examined the association between work-related stress of both spouses and daily fluctuations in their affective states and dyadic closeness. Daily diary data from 169 Israeli dual-earner couples were analyzed using multilevel modeling. The findings indicate that work stress has no direct effect on dyadic closeness but rather is mediated by the…

  10. Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frei, Christoph; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Déqué, Michel

    2003-01-01

    . The 15-year integrations were forced from reanalyses and observed sea surface temperature and sea ice (global model from sea surface only). The observational reference is based on 6400 rain gauge records (10-50 stations per grid box). Evaluation statistics encompass mean precipitation, wet-day frequency...... for other statistics. In summer, all models underestimate precipitation intensity (by 16-42%) and there is a too low frequency of heavy events. This bias reflects too dry summer mean conditions in three of the models, while it is partly compensated by too many low-intensity events in the other two models...

  11. Is proportion burned severely related to daily area burned?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birch, Donovan S; Morgan, Penelope; Smith, Alistair M S; Kolden, Crystal A; Hudak, Andrew T

    2014-01-01

    The ecological effects of forest fires burning with high severity are long-lived and have the greatest impact on vegetation successional trajectories, as compared to low-to-moderate severity fires. The primary drivers of high severity fire are unclear, but it has been hypothesized that wind-driven, large fire-growth days play a significant role, particularly on large fires in forested ecosystems. Here, we examined the relative proportion of classified burn severity for individual daily areas burned that occurred during 42 large forest fires in central Idaho and western Montana from 2005 to 2007 and 2011. Using infrared perimeter data for wildfires with five or more consecutive days of mapped perimeters, we delineated 2697 individual daily areas burned from which we calculated the proportions of each of three burn severity classes (high, moderate, and low) using the differenced normalized burn ratio as mapped for large fires by the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity project. We found that the proportion of high burn severity was weakly correlated (Kendall τ = 0.299) with size of daily area burned (DAB). Burn severity was highly variable, even for the largest (95th percentile) in DAB, suggesting that other variables than fire extent influence the ecological effects of fires. We suggest that these results do not support the prioritization of large runs during fire rehabilitation efforts, since the underlying assumption in this prioritization is a positive relationship between severity and area burned in a day. (letters)

  12. Modeled Daily Thaw Depth and Frozen Ground Depth, Version 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains modeled daily thaw depth and freezing depth for the Arctic terrestrial drainage basin. Thaw and freezing depths were calculated over the study...

  13. A nested multisite daily rainfall stochastic generation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srikanthan, Ratnasingham; Pegram, Geoffrey G. S.

    2009-06-01

    SummaryThis paper describes a nested multisite daily rainfall generation model which preserves the statistics at daily, monthly and annual levels of aggregation. A multisite two-part daily model is nested in multisite monthly, then annual models. A multivariate set of fourth order Markov chains is used to model the daily occurrence of rainfall; the daily spatial correlation in the occurrence process is handled by using suitably correlated uniformly distributed variates via a Normal Scores Transform (NST) obtained from a set of matched multinormal pseudo-random variates, following Wilks [Wilks, D.S., 1998. Multisite generalisation of a daily stochastic precipitation generation model. Journal of Hydrology 210, 178-191]; we call it a hidden covariance model. A spatially correlated two parameter gamma distribution is used to obtain the rainfall depths; these values are also correlated via a specially matched hidden multinormal process. For nesting, the generated daily rainfall sequences at all the sites are aggregated to monthly rainfall values and these values are modified by a set of lag-1 autoregressive multisite monthly rainfall models. The modified monthly rainfall values are aggregated to annual rainfall and these are then modified by a lag-1 autoregressive multisite annual model. This nesting process ensures that the daily, monthly and annual means and covariances are preserved. The model was applied to a region with 30 rainfall sites, one of the five sets reported by Srikanthan [Srikanthan, R., 2005. Stochastic Generation of Daily Rainfall Data at a Number of Sites. Technical Report 05/7, CRC for Catchment Hydrology. Monash University, 66p]. A comparison of the historical and generated statistics shows that the model preserves all the important characteristics of rainfall at the daily, monthly and annual time scales, including the spatial structure. There are some outstanding features that need to be improved: depths of rainfall on isolated wet days and

  14. Daily mood and sleep: reciprocal relations and links with adjustment problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouros, Chrystyna D; El-Sheikh, Mona

    2015-02-01

    Children's sleep problems are common and associated with increased risk for adjustment problems. We examined daily links between children's sleep and mood, using a daily diary method and actigraphy. We also tested children's daily mood as a mediator of relations among sleep and children's broader internalizing and externalizing symptoms. A community sample of 142 children (mean age = 10.69 years; 57% girls; 69% European American, 31% African American) and their parents participated. For 1 week, children wore actigraphs and parents completed a daily telephone interview about their child's mood. Following the week of actigraphy, mothers and fathers reported on their child's adjustment. Multi-level models indicated within-person relations between children's mood and subsequent sleep fragmentation (indicated by increased activity) and sleep latency, and between-person relations between sleep latency and subsequent mood on the next day. Significant indirect effects were found such that a more negative daily mood (aggregated across diary days) mediated relations between poor sleep efficiency and longer sleep latency and parent-reported internalizing and externalizing symptoms. Findings extend previous research by highlighting disruptions to children's daily mood as a potential mechanism linking sleep problems to children's mental health. © 2014 European Sleep Research Society.

  15. Pain-related Impairment of Daily Activities After Thoracic Surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ringsted, Thomas K; Wildgaard, Kim; Kreiner, Svend

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE:: Persistent postoperative pain is an acknowledged entity that reduces daily activities. Evaluation of the post-thoracotomy pain syndrome (PTPS) is often measured using traditional pain scales without in-depth questions on pain impairment. Thus, the purpose was to create a procedure......-specific questionnaire for assessment of functional impairment due to PTPS. METHODS:: Activities were obtained from the literature supplemented by interviews with patients and surgeons. The questionnaire was validated using the Rasch model in order to describe an underlying pain impairment scale. RESULTS:: Four of 17...... questions were redundant. The remaining 13 questions from low to intensive activity described functional impairment following persistent pain from thoracotomy and video-assisted thoracic surgery (VATS). No evidence for differential item functioning for gender, age or differences between open or VATS, were...

  16. Relating precipitation to fronts at a sub-daily basis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hénin, Riccardo; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Gouveia, Célia

    2017-04-01

    High impact events over Western Iberia include precipitation extremes that are cause for concern as they lead to flooding, landslides, extensive property damage and human casualties. These events are usually associated with low pressure systems over the North Atlantic moving eastward towards the European western coasts (Liberato and Trigo, 2014). A method to detect fronts and to associate amounts of precipitation to each front is tested, distinguishing between warm and cold fronts. The 6-hourly ERA-interim 1979-2012 reanalysis with 1°x1° horizontal resolution is used for the purpose. An objective front identification method (the Thermal Method described in Shemm et al., 2014) is applied to locate fronts all over the Northern Hemisphere considering the equivalent potential temperature as thermal parameter to use in the model. On the other hand, we settled a squared search box of tuneable dimension (from 2 to 10 degrees long) to look for a front in the neighbourhood of a grid point affected by precipitation. A sensitivity analysis is performed and the optimal dimension of the box is assessed in order to avoid over(under) estimation of precipitation. This is performed in the light of the variability and typical dynamics of warm/cold frontal systems in the Western Europe region. Afterwards, using the extreme event ranking over Iberia proposed by Ramos et al. (2014) the first ranked extreme events are selected in order to validate the method with specific case studies. Finally, climatological and trend maps of frontal activity are produced both on annual and seasonal scales. Trend maps show a decrease of frontal precipitation over north-western Europe and a slight increase over south-western Europe, mainly due to warm fronts. REFERENCES Liberato M.L.R. and R.M. Trigo (2014) Extreme precipitation events and related impacts in Western Iberia. Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions. IAHS Red Book No 363, 171-176. ISSN: 0144-7815. Ramos A.M., R

  17. Modeling of Sokoto Daily Average Temperature: A Fractional ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Modeling of Sokoto Daily Average Temperature: A Fractional Integration Approach. 22 extension of the class of ARIMA processes stemming from Box and Jenkins methodology. One of their originalities is the explicit modeling of the long term correlation structure (Diebolt and. Guiraud, 2000). Autoregressive fractionally.

  18. Estimated daily salt intake in relation to blood pressure and blood lipids: the role of obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thuesen, Betina H; Toft, Ulla; Buhelt, Lone P; Linneberg, Allan; Friedrich, Nele; Nauck, Matthias; Wallaschofski, Henri; Jørgensen, Torben

    2015-12-01

    Excessive salt intake causes increased blood pressure which is considered the leading risk for premature death. One major challenge when evaluating associations between daily salt intake and markers of non-communicable diseases is that a high daily salt intake correlates with obesity, which is also a well described risk factor for poor cardiometabolic outcome. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship of estimated daily salt intake with blood pressure and blood lipids and to investigate the effect of taking different measures of obesity into account. We included 3294 men and women aged 18-69 years from a general population based study in Copenhagen, Denmark. Estimated 24-hour sodium excretion was calculated by measurements of creatinine and sodium concentration in spot urine in combination with information of sex, age, height and weight. The relations of estimated 24-hour sodium excretion with blood pressure and blood lipids were evaluated by linear regression models. The daily mean estimated intake of salt was 10.80 g and 7.52 g among men and women, respectively. Daily salt intake was significantly associated with blood pressure (β-estimates 1.18 mm Hg/g salt (systolic) and 0.74 mm Hg/g salt (diastolic), p lipids were highly affected by adjustment for obesity. Associations of estimated daily salt intake with blood pressure and blood lipids were highly affected by adjustment for obesity. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

  19. A Hidden Markov Model of Daily Precipitation over Western Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojo Hernández, Julián; Lall, Upmanu; Mesa Sanchez, Oscar

    2017-04-01

    A Hidden Markov Model of Daily Precipitation over Western Colombia. The western Pacific coast of Colombia (Chocó Region) is among the rainiest on earth, largely due to low level jet activity and orographic lifting along the western Andes. A hidden Markov model (HMM) is used to characterize daily rainfall occurrence at 250 gauge stations over the Western Pacific coast and Andean plateau in Colombia during the wet season (September - November) from 1970 to 2015. Four ''hidden'' rainfall states are identified, with the first pair representing wet and dry conditions at all stations, and the second pair North-West to South-East gradients in rainfall occurrence. Using the ERA-Interim reanalysis data (1979-2012) we show that the first pair of states are associated with low level jet convergence and divergence, while the second pair is associated with South Atlantic Convergence Zone activity and local convection. The estimated daily state-sequence is characterized by a systematic seasonal evolution, together with considerable variability on intraseasonal and interannual time scales, exhibiting a strong relationship with ENSO. Finally, a nonhomogeneous HMM (NHMM) is then used to simulate daily precipitation occurrence at the 250 stations, using the ERA-Interim vertically integrated moisture flux anomalies (two weeks lagged) and monthly means of the sea surface temperatures (one month lagged). Simulations from the NHMM are found to reproduce the relationship between the ENSO and the western Colombian precipitation. The NHMM simulations are also able to capture interannual changes in daily rainfall occurrence and dry-wet frequencies at some individual stations. It is suggested that a) HMM provides a useful tool that contributes to characterizing the Colombian's Hydro-Meteorology and it's anomalies during the ENSO, and b) the NHMM is an important tool to produce station-scale daily rainfall sequence scenarios for input into hydrological models.

  20. The Effect of Improved Sub-Daily Earth Rotation Models on Global GPS Data Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, S.; Choi, K. K.

    2017-12-01

    Throughout the various International GNSS Service (IGS) products, strong periodic signals have been observed around the 14 day period. This signal is clearly visible in all IGS time-series such as those related to orbit ephemerides, Earth rotation parameters (ERP) and ground station coordinates. Recent studies show that errors in the sub-daily Earth rotation models are the main factors that induce such noise. Current IGS orbit processing standards adopted the IERS 2010 convention and its sub-daily Earth rotation model. Since the IERS convention had published, recent advances in the VLBI analysis have made contributions to update the sub-daily Earth rotation models. We have compared several proposed sub-daily Earth rotation models and show the effect of using those models on orbit ephemeris, Earth rotation parameters and ground station coordinates generated by the NGS global GPS data processing strategy.

  1. Simulation of daily rainfall through markov chain modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadiq, N.

    2015-01-01

    Being an agricultural country, the inhabitants of dry land in cultivated areas mainly rely on the daily rainfall for watering their fields. A stochastic model based on first order Markov Chain was developed to simulate daily rainfall data for Multan, D. I. Khan, Nawabshah, Chilas and Barkhan for the period 1981-2010. Transitional probability matrices of first order Markov Chain was utilized to generate the daily rainfall occurrence while gamma distribution was used to generate the daily rainfall amount. In order to achieve the parametric values of mentioned cities, method of moments is used to estimate the shape and scale parameters which lead to synthetic sequence generation as per gamma distribution. In this study, unconditional and conditional probabilities of wet and dry days in sum with means and standard deviations are considered as the essential parameters for the simulated stochastic generation of daily rainfalls. It has been found that the computerized synthetic rainfall series concurred pretty well with the actual observed rainfall series. (author)

  2. Daily reservoir inflow forecasting combining QPF into ANNs model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jun; Cheng, Chun-Tian; Liao, Sheng-Li; Wu, Xin-Yu; Shen, Jian-Jian

    2009-01-01

    Daily reservoir inflow predictions with lead-times of several days are essential to the operational planning and scheduling of hydroelectric power system. The demand for quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) is increasing in hydropower operation with the dramatic advances in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. This paper presents a simple and an effective algorithm for daily reservoir inflow predictions which solicits the observed precipitation, forecasted precipitation from QPF as predictors and discharges in following 1 to 6 days as predicted targets for multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (MLP-ANNs) modeling. An improved error back-propagation algorithm with self-adaptive learning rate and self-adaptive momentum coefficient is used to make the supervised training procedure more efficient in both time saving and search optimization. Several commonly used error measures are employed to evaluate the performance of the proposed model and the results, compared with that of ARIMA model, show that the proposed model is capable of obtaining satisfactory forecasting not only in goodness of fit but also in generalization. Furthermore, the presented algorithm is integrated into a practical software system which has been severed for daily inflow predictions with lead-times varying from 1 to 6 days of more than twenty reservoirs operated by the Fujian Province Grid Company, China.

  3. An empirical model of the quiet daily geomagnetic field variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamazaki, Y.; Yumoto, K.; Cardinal, M.G.; Fraser, B.J.; Hattori, P.; Kakinami, Y.; Liu, J.Y.; Lynn, K.J.W.; Marshall, R.; McNamara, D.; Nagatsuma, T.; Nikiforov, V.M.; Otadoy, R.E.; Ruhimat, M.; Shevtsov, B.M.; Shiokawa, K.; Abe, S.; Uozumi, T.; Yoshikawa, A.

    2011-01-01

    An empirical model of the quiet daily geomagnetic field variation has been constructed based on geomagnetic data obtained from 21 stations along the 210 Magnetic Meridian of the Circum-pan Pacific Magnetometer Network (CPMN) from 1996 to 2007. Using the least squares fitting method for geomagnetically quiet days (Kp ??? 2+), the quiet daily geomagnetic field variation at each station was described as a function of solar activity SA, day of year DOY, lunar age LA, and local time LT. After interpolation in latitude, the model can describe solar-activity dependence and seasonal dependence of solar quiet daily variations (S) and lunar quiet daily variations (L). We performed a spherical harmonic analysis (SHA) on these S and L variations to examine average characteristics of the equivalent external current systems. We found three particularly noteworthy results. First, the total current intensity of the S current system is largely controlled by solar activity while its focus position is not significantly affected by solar activity. Second, we found that seasonal variations of the S current intensity exhibit north-south asymmetry; the current intensity of the northern vortex shows a prominent annual variation while the southern vortex shows a clear semi-annual variation as well as annual variation. Thirdly, we found that the total intensity of the L current system changes depending on solar activity and season; seasonal variations of the L current intensity show an enhancement during the December solstice, independent of the level of solar activity. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  4. Effects of cognitive therapy for depression on daily stress-related variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrish, Brendt P; Cohen, Lawrence H; Gunthert, Kathleen C; Butler, Andrew C; Laurenceau, Jean-Philippe; Beck, Judith S

    2009-05-01

    This study used a daily diary design to evaluate depressed patients' changes on daily stress-related variables during cognitive therapy (CT). Patients completed daily diaries on two week-long occasions: after the intake interview and again after the sixth session of CT. Patients also completed a measure of depressive symptoms before every treatment session. After six sessions of CT, patients reported a significant reduction in: (a) depressive symptoms; (b) daily sad affect (SA); (c) daily negative thoughts associated with the day's most stressful event; and (d) SA reactivity to daily stressors. In addition, patients reported a significant increase in: (e) daily positive affect (PA); and (f) SA reactivity to daily negative thoughts. The results suggest that CT has its intended effects on the daily lives of depressed adults, and highlight the value of a daily diary methodology for research on CT.

  5. Neoadjuvant twice daily chemoradiotherapy for esophageal cancer: Treatment-related mortality and long-term outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart E. Samuels, MD, PhD

    2017-07-01

    Conclusion: Neoadjuvant twice-daily chemoradiation for esophageal cancer is a safe and effective alternative to daily fractionation with low treatment-related mortality and long-term outcomes similar to standard fractionation courses.

  6. Modeling Errors in Daily Precipitation Measurements: Additive or Multiplicative?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Yudong; Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Tang, Ling; Sapiano, Matthew; Maggioni, Viviana; Wu, Huan

    2013-01-01

    The definition and quantification of uncertainty depend on the error model used. For uncertainties in precipitation measurements, two types of error models have been widely adopted: the additive error model and the multiplicative error model. This leads to incompatible specifications of uncertainties and impedes intercomparison and application.In this letter, we assess the suitability of both models for satellite-based daily precipitation measurements in an effort to clarify the uncertainty representation. Three criteria were employed to evaluate the applicability of either model: (1) better separation of the systematic and random errors; (2) applicability to the large range of variability in daily precipitation; and (3) better predictive skills. It is found that the multiplicative error model is a much better choice under all three criteria. It extracted the systematic errors more cleanly, was more consistent with the large variability of precipitation measurements, and produced superior predictions of the error characteristics. The additive error model had several weaknesses, such as non constant variance resulting from systematic errors leaking into random errors, and the lack of prediction capability. Therefore, the multiplicative error model is a better choice.

  7. [Comparison of three daily global solar radiation models].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jin-Ming; Fan, Wen-Yi; Zhao, Ying-Hui

    2014-08-01

    Three daily global solar radiation estimation models ( Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al.) were analyzed and compared using data of 13 weather stations from 1982 to 2012 from three northeastern provinces and eastern Inner Mongolia. After cross-validation analysis, the result showed that mean absolute error (MAE) for each model was 1.71, 2.83 and 1.68 MJ x m(-2) x d(-1) respectively, showing that Å-P model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. which used percentage of sunshine had an advantage over Thornton-Running model which didn't use percentage of sunshine. Model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. played a good effect on the situation of non-sunshine, and its MAE and bias percentage were 18.5% and 33.8% smaller than those of Å-P model, respectively. High precision results could be obtained by using the simple linear model of Å-P. Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. overvalued daily global solar radiation by 12.2%, 19.2% and 9.9% respectively. MAE for each station varied little with the spatial change of location, and annual MAE decreased with the advance of years. The reason for this might be that the change of observation accuracy caused by the replacement of radiation instrument in 1993. MAEs for rainy days, non-sunshine days and warm seasons of the three models were greater than those for days without rain, sunshine days and cold seasons respectively, showing that different methods should be used for different weather conditions on estimating solar radiation with meteorological elements.

  8. Interpolation of daily rainfall using spatiotemporal models and clustering

    KAUST Repository

    Militino, A. F.

    2014-06-11

    Accumulated daily rainfall in non-observed locations on a particular day is frequently required as input to decision-making tools in precision agriculture or for hydrological or meteorological studies. Various solutions and estimation procedures have been proposed in the literature depending on the auxiliary information and the availability of data, but most such solutions are oriented to interpolating spatial data without incorporating temporal dependence. When data are available in space and time, spatiotemporal models usually provide better solutions. Here, we analyse the performance of three spatiotemporal models fitted to the whole sampled set and to clusters within the sampled set. The data consists of daily observations collected from 87 manual rainfall gauges from 1990 to 2010 in Navarre, Spain. The accuracy and precision of the interpolated data are compared with real data from 33 automated rainfall gauges in the same region, but placed in different locations than the manual rainfall gauges. Root mean squared error by months and by year are also provided. To illustrate these models, we also map interpolated daily precipitations and standard errors on a 1km2 grid in the whole region. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.

  9. Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falcone, Giuseppe; Murru, Maura; Console, Rodolfo; Marzocchi, Warner; Zhuang, Jiancang

    2016-04-01

    We present a retrospective ETAS (Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence) model based on the daily updating of free parameters during the background, the learning and the test phase of a seismic sequence. The idea was born after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Center in Japan provided an appropriate testing benchmark for the five 1-day submitted models. Of all the models, only one was able to successfully predict the number of events that really happened. This result was verified using both the real time and the revised catalogs. The main cause of the failure was in the underestimation of the forecasted events, due to model parameters maintained fixed during the test. Moreover, the absence in the learning catalog of an event similar to the magnitude of the mainshock (M9.0), which drastically changed the seismicity in the area, made the learning parameters not suitable to describe the real seismicity. As an example of this methodological development we show the evolution of the model parameters during the last two strong seismic sequences in Italy: the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Reggio Emilia episodes. The achievement of the model with daily updated parameters is compared with that of same model where the parameters remain fixed during the test time.

  10. The Relative Salience of Daily and Enduring Influences on Off-Job Reactions to Work Stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calderwood, Charles; Ackerman, Phillip L

    2016-12-01

    Work stress is an important determinant of employee health and wellness. The occupational health community is recognizing that one contributor to these relationships may be the presence of negative off-job reactivity to work, which we argue involves continued thoughts directed towards work (cognitive reactivity), continued negative mood stemming from work (affective reactivity), and the alteration of post-work behaviours in response to work factors (behavioural reactivity). We explored the relative contributions of daily work stressors, affective traits, and subjective job stress perceptions to negative off-job reactivity. These relationships were evaluated in a study of hospital nurses (n = 75), who completed trait measures and then provided self-assessments of daily work stress and off-job reactions for four work days. The results of several multilevel analyses indicated that a main-effects model best described the data when predicting cognitive, affective, and behavioural reactivity from daily work stressors, affective traits, and subjective job stress perceptions. A series of multilevel dominance analyses revealed that subjective job stress perceptions dominated the prediction of behavioural reactivity, while trait negative affect dominated the prediction of affective reactivity. Theoretical implications and the relative salience of daily and enduring contributors to negative off-job reactivity are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Relative Effects of Daily Feedback and Weekly Feedback on Customer Service Behavior at a Gas Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    So, Yongjoon; Lee, Kyehoon; Oah, Shezeen

    2013-01-01

    The relative effects of daily and weekly feedback on customer service behavior at a gas station were assessed using an ABC within-subjects design. Four critical service behaviors were identified and measured daily. After baseline (A), weekly feedback (B) was introduced, and daily feedback (C) was introduced in the next phase. The results indicated…

  12. Daily relations among affect, urge, targeted naltrexone, and alcohol use in young adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bold, Krysten W.; Fucito, Lisa M.; Corbin, William R.; DeMartini, Kelly S.; Leeman, Robert F.; Kranzler, Henry R.; O’Malley, Stephanie S.

    2016-01-01

    Heavy drinking among young adults is a serious public health problem. Naltrexone, an opioid antagonist, has been shown to reduce drinking in young adults compared to placebo and can be taken on a targeted (i.e., as needed) basis. Understanding risk factors for drinking and naltrexone effects within-person in young adults may help to optimize the use of targeted naltrexone. The current study was a secondary analysis of daily diary data from 127 (n=40 female) young adults (age 18-25) enrolled in a double-blind clinical trial of daily (25 mg) plus targeted (25 mg) naltrexone versus placebo. Hierarchical linear models were used to examine the effects of daily affect, urge, and taking targeted medication on same-day risk of drinking to intoxication (defined as estimated blood-alcohol-concentration, BAC≥.08g%). Results indicated urge significantly mediated within-person positive affect–drinking relations on a daily level. Specifically, positive affect was associated with greater urge to drink, which in turn was associated with greater odds of BAC≥.08g%. Furthermore, days of greater positive affect and urge were associated with taking a targeted dose of medication, which reduced the likelihood of intoxication by nearly 23% in the naltrexone group compared to placebo. Gender and family history of alcohol dependence were examined as moderators of these daily level effects. These results provide further evidence of naltrexone’s ability to reduce alcohol consumption in young adults and identify potential within-person risk processes related to heavy drinking that could inform alcohol-related interventions for this population. PMID:27690505

  13. Daily relations among affect, urge, targeted naltrexone, and alcohol use in young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bold, Krysten W; Fucito, Lisa M; Corbin, William R; DeMartini, Kelly S; Leeman, Robert F; Kranzler, Henry R; O'Malley, Stephanie S

    2016-10-01

    Heavy drinking among young adults is a serious public health problem. Naltrexone, an opioid antagonist, has been shown to reduce drinking in young adults compared to placebo and can be taken on a targeted (i.e., as needed) basis. Understanding risk factors for drinking and naltrexone effects within-person in young adults may help to optimize the use of targeted naltrexone. The current study was a secondary analysis of daily diary data from 127 (n = 40 female) young adults (age 18-25) enrolled in a double-blind clinical trial of daily (25 mg) plus targeted (25 mg) naltrexone versus placebo. Hierarchical linear models were used to examine the effects of daily affect, urge, and taking targeted medication on same-day risk of drinking to intoxication (defined as estimated blood-alcohol-concentration, BAC ≥ .08 g%). Results indicated urge significantly mediated within-person positive affect-drinking relations on a daily level. Specifically, positive affect was associated with greater urge to drink, which in turn was associated with greater odds of BAC ≥ .08 g%. Furthermore, days of greater positive affect and urge were associated with taking a targeted dose of medication, which reduced the likelihood of intoxication by nearly 23% in the naltrexone group compared to placebo. Gender and family history of alcohol dependence were examined as moderators of these daily level effects. These results provide further evidence of naltrexone's ability to reduce alcohol consumption in young adults and identify potential within-person risk processes related to heavy drinking that could inform alcohol-related interventions for this population. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Dynamic Regression Intervention Modeling for the Malaysian Daily Load

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fadhilah Abdrazak

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Malaysia is a unique country due to having both fixed and moving holidays.  These moving holidays may overlap with other fixed holidays and therefore, increase the complexity of the load forecasting activities. The errors due to holidays’ effects in the load forecasting are known to be higher than other factors.  If these effects can be estimated and removed, the behavior of the series could be better viewed.  Thus, the aim of this paper is to improve the forecasting errors by using a dynamic regression model with intervention analysis.   Based on the linear transfer function method, a daily load model consists of either peak or average is developed.  The developed model outperformed the seasonal ARIMA model in estimating the fixed and moving holidays’ effects and achieved a smaller Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE in load forecast.

  15. Spatial interpolation schemes of daily precipitation for hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Y.; Clark, M.R.; Rajagopalan, B.; Leavesley, G.

    2012-01-01

    Distributed hydrologic models typically require spatial estimates of precipitation interpolated from sparsely located observational points to the specific grid points. We compare and contrast the performance of regression-based statistical methods for the spatial estimation of precipitation in two hydrologically different basins and confirmed that widely used regression-based estimation schemes fail to describe the realistic spatial variability of daily precipitation field. The methods assessed are: (1) inverse distance weighted average; (2) multiple linear regression (MLR); (3) climatological MLR; and (4) locally weighted polynomial regression (LWP). In order to improve the performance of the interpolations, the authors propose a two-step regression technique for effective daily precipitation estimation. In this simple two-step estimation process, precipitation occurrence is first generated via a logistic regression model before estimate the amount of precipitation separately on wet days. This process generated the precipitation occurrence, amount, and spatial correlation effectively. A distributed hydrologic model (PRMS) was used for the impact analysis in daily time step simulation. Multiple simulations suggested noticeable differences between the input alternatives generated by three different interpolation schemes. Differences are shown in overall simulation error against the observations, degree of explained variability, and seasonal volumes. Simulated streamflows also showed different characteristics in mean, maximum, minimum, and peak flows. Given the same parameter optimization technique, LWP input showed least streamflow error in Alapaha basin and CMLR input showed least error (still very close to LWP) in Animas basin. All of the two-step interpolation inputs resulted in lower streamflow error compared to the directly interpolated inputs. ?? 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  16. Less Daily Computer Use is Related to Smaller Hippocampal Volumes in Cognitively Intact Elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silbert, Lisa C; Dodge, Hiroko H; Lahna, David; Promjunyakul, Nutta-On; Austin, Daniel; Mattek, Nora; Erten-Lyons, Deniz; Kaye, Jeffrey A

    2016-01-01

    Computer use is becoming a common activity in the daily life of older individuals and declines over time in those with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). The relationship between daily computer use (DCU) and imaging markers of neurodegeneration is unknown. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between average DCU and volumetric markers of neurodegeneration on brain MRI. Cognitively intact volunteers enrolled in the Intelligent Systems for Assessing Aging Change study underwent MRI. Total in-home computer use per day was calculated using mouse movement detection and averaged over a one-month period surrounding the MRI. Spearman's rank order correlation (univariate analysis) and linear regression models (multivariate analysis) examined hippocampal, gray matter (GM), white matter hyperintensity (WMH), and ventricular cerebral spinal fluid (vCSF) volumes in relation to DCU. A voxel-based morphometry analysis identified relationships between regional GM density and DCU. Twenty-seven cognitively intact participants used their computer for 51.3 minutes per day on average. Less DCU was associated with smaller hippocampal volumes (r = 0.48, p = 0.01), but not total GM, WMH, or vCSF volumes. After adjusting for age, education, and gender, less DCU remained associated with smaller hippocampal volume (p = 0.01). Voxel-wise analysis demonstrated that less daily computer use was associated with decreased GM density in the bilateral hippocampi and temporal lobes. Less daily computer use is associated with smaller brain volume in regions that are integral to memory function and known to be involved early with Alzheimer's pathology and conversion to dementia. Continuous monitoring of daily computer use may detect signs of preclinical neurodegeneration in older individuals at risk for dementia.

  17. Preservice Elementary Mathematics Teachers' Level of Relating Mathematical Concepts in Daily Life Contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akkus, Oylum

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate preservice elementary mathematics teachers' ability of relating mathematical concepts and daily life context. Two research questions were set; what is the preservice elementary mathematics teachers' level of relating mathematical concepts and daily life context regarding to their education year and…

  18. Relation between usual daily walking time and metabolic syndrome ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: There are several studies about the positive relation between physical inactivity or low cardio respiratory fitness with development of metabolic syndrome (MS). In contrast, physical activity had favourable effects on all components of MS but the quantity and the frequency of physical activity necessary to produce ...

  19. Development of a foraging model framework to reliably estimate daily food consumption by young fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deslauriers, David; Rosburg, Alex J.; Chipps, Steven R.

    2017-01-01

    We developed a foraging model for young fishes that incorporates handling and digestion rate to estimate daily food consumption. Feeding trials were used to quantify functional feeding response, satiation, and gut evacuation rate. Once parameterized, the foraging model was then applied to evaluate effects of prey type, prey density, water temperature, and fish size on daily feeding rate by age-0 (19–70 mm) pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus). Prey consumption was positively related to prey density (for fish >30 mm) and water temperature, but negatively related to prey size and the presence of sand substrate. Model evaluation results revealed good agreement between observed estimates of daily consumption and those predicted by the model (r2 = 0.95). Model simulations showed that fish feeding on Chironomidae or Ephemeroptera larvae were able to gain mass, whereas fish feeding solely on zooplankton lost mass under most conditions. By accounting for satiation and digestive processes in addition to handling time and prey density, the model provides realistic estimates of daily food consumption that can prove useful for evaluating rearing conditions for age-0 fishes.

  20. Comparison of twice-daily vs once-daily deferasirox dosing in a gerbil model of iron cardiomyopathy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto-Duessel, Maya; Aguilar, Michelle; Nick, Hanspeter; Moats, Rex; Wood, John C.

    2010-01-01

    Objective Despite the availability of deferoxamine chelation therapy for more than 20 years, iron cardiomyopathy remains the leading cause of death in thalassemia major patients. Effective chelation of cardiac iron is difficult; cardiac iron stores respond more slowly to chelation therapy and require a constant gradient of labile iron species between serum and myocytes. We have previously demonstrated the efficacy of once-daily deferasirox in removing previously stored cardiac iron in the gerbil, but changes in cardiac iron were relatively modest compared with hepatic iron. We postulated that daily divided dosing, by sustaining a longer labile iron gradient from myocytes to serum, would produce better cardiac iron chelation than a comparable daily dose. Methods Twenty-four 8- to 10-week-old female gerbils underwent iron dextran—loading for 10 weeks, followed by a 1-week iron equilibration period. Animals were divided into three treatment groups of eight animals each and were treated with deferasirox 100 mg/kg/day as a single dose, deferasirox 100 mg/kg/day daily divided dose, or sham chelation for a total of 12 weeks. Following euthanasia, organs were harvested for quantitative iron and tissue histology. Results Hepatic and cardiac iron contents were not statistically different between the daily single-dose and daily divided-dose groups. However, the ratio of cardiac to hepatic iron content was lower in the divided-dose group (0.78% vs 1.11%, p = 0.0007). Conclusion Daily divided dosing of deferasirox changes the relative cardiac and liver iron chelation profile compared with daily single dosing, trading improvements in cardiac iron elimination for less-effective hepatic chelation. PMID:17588475

  1. Determination of daily solar ultraviolet radiation using statistical models and artificial neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. J. Barbero

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, two different methodologies are used to develop two models for estimating daily solar UV radiation. The first is based on traditional statistical techniques whereas the second is based on artificial neural network methods. Both models use daily solar global broadband radiation as the only measured input. The statistical model is derived from a relationship between the daily UV and the global clearness indices but modulated by the relative optical air mass. The inputs to the neural network model were determined from a large number of radiometric and atmospheric parameters using the automatic relevance determination method, although only the daily solar global irradiation, daily global clearness index and relative optical air mass were shown to be the optimal input variables. Both statistical and neural network models were developed using data measured at Almería (Spain, a semiarid and coastal climate, and tested against data from Table Mountain (Golden, CO, USA, a mountainous and dry environment. Results show that the statistical model performs adequately in both sites for all weather conditions, especially when only snow-free days at Golden were considered (RMSE=4.6%, MBE= –0.1%. The neural network based model provides the best overall estimates in the site where it has been trained, but presents an inadequate performance for the Golden site when snow-covered days are included (RMSE=6.5%, MBE= –3.0%. This result confirms that the neural network model does not adequately respond on those ranges of the input parameters which were not used for its development.

  2. Trait acceptance predicts fewer daily negative emotions through less stressor-related rumination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalino, Lahnna I; Arenander, Justine; Epel, Elissa; Puterman, Eli

    2017-12-01

    People who are more accepting of their thoughts and feelings experience fewer negative emotions. Although several studies document the connection between acceptance and negative emotions, little, if any research, sheds light on how being receptive to one's internal experience results in less negativity in everyday life. In a daily diary study (N = 183), we found that people who were more accepting of their thoughts and feelings experienced fewer daily negative emotions, and this association was partly explained by less daily stressor-related rumination. The strength of this mediational pathway differed depending upon the average perceived severity of daily stressors. When daily stressors were perceived to be more demanding, trait acceptance predicted a stronger inverse association with rumination, and rumination predicted a stronger positive association with negative emotions. These results shed light on one way acceptance of internal experience predicts less negativity, as well as the moderating role of perceived daily stress. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Two tests of a stochastic dynamic programming model of daily singing routines in birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas

    1999-02-01

    Many hypotheses have been put forward to account for the dawn chorus in birds. Few of these, however, are able to account for variation in song output over the whole day, or for differences in daily singing routines between species, individuals, seasons and environmental conditions. One hypothesis that does offer a more general explanation is based on a stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) model of daily singing routines. This model relates the relative costs and benefits of feeding and singing at different times of day to the size of a bird's fat reserves and calculates the optimal daily routines of singing and foraging that will maximize the amount that the bird can sing while avoiding starvation. The use of SDP models in behavioural ecology has become well established, but they remain largely untested empirically. I tested two predictions of the SDP model of daily routines of singing, using free-living European robins Erithacus rubecula. The results supported both predictions: (1) food supplementation causing unpredictable short-term increases in foraging success increased subsequent song output; and (2) changes in ambient temperature were positively associated with changes in subsequent song output. Copyright 1999 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

  4. User modeling and adaptation for daily routines providing assistance to people with special needs

    CERN Document Server

    Martín, Estefanía; Carro, Rosa M

    2013-01-01

    User Modeling and Adaptation for Daily Routines is motivated by the need to bring attention to how people with special needs can benefit from adaptive methods and techniques in their everyday lives. Assistive technologies, adaptive systems and context-aware applications are three well-established research fields. There is, in fact, a vast amount of literature that covers HCI-related issues in each area separately. However, the contributions in the intersection of these areas have been less visible, despite the fact that such synergies may have a great impact on improving daily living.Presentin

  5. Random Modeling of Daily Rainfall and Runoff Using a Seasonal Model and Wavelet Denoising

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-ming Chou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Instead of Fourier smoothing, this study applied wavelet denoising to acquire the smooth seasonal mean and corresponding perturbation term from daily rainfall and runoff data in traditional seasonal models, which use seasonal means for hydrological time series forecasting. The denoised rainfall and runoff time series data were regarded as the smooth seasonal mean. The probability distribution of the percentage coefficients can be obtained from calibrated daily rainfall and runoff data. For validated daily rainfall and runoff data, percentage coefficients were randomly generated according to the probability distribution and the law of linear proportion. Multiplying the generated percentage coefficient by the smooth seasonal mean resulted in the corresponding perturbation term. Random modeling of daily rainfall and runoff can be obtained by adding the perturbation term to the smooth seasonal mean. To verify the accuracy of the proposed method, daily rainfall and runoff data for the Wu-Tu watershed were analyzed. The analytical results demonstrate that wavelet denoising enhances the precision of daily rainfall and runoff modeling of the seasonal model. In addition, the wavelet denoising technique proposed in this study can obtain the smooth seasonal mean of rainfall and runoff processes and is suitable for modeling actual daily rainfall and runoff processes.

  6. Health-related aspects of objectively measured daily physical activity in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, Magnus; Andersen, Lars Bo

    2008-01-01

    It is well established that physical inactivity in adults is associated with increased mortality and morbidity. Whether daily physical activity level is related to risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in children has been debated. Furthermore, objective data on the habitual daily physical...... activity in children have at large been scarce in the literature. The main reason for this is the fact that daily physical activity is very difficult to measure in children. In recent years, a new device, the accelerometer, has emerged as a frequently used instrument for the measurement of daily physical...... activity. This review summarizes recently published studies that have used accelerometers to measure daily physical activity in children and related activity data to known risk factors for CVD....

  7. Upscaling instantaneous to daily evapotranspiration using modelled daily shortwave radiation for remote sensing applications: an artificial neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wandera, Loise; Mallick, Kaniska; Kiely, Gerard; Roupsard, Olivier; Peichl, Mathias; Magliulo, Vincenzo

    2017-04-01

    Upscaling instantaneous evapotranspiration retrieved at any specific time-of-day (ETi) to daily evapotranspiration (ETd) is a key challenge in mapping regional ET using polar orbiting sensors. Various studies have unanimously cited the shortwave incoming radiation (RS) to be the most robust reference variable explaining the ratio between ETd and ETi . This study aims to contribute in ETi upscaling for global studies using the ratio between daily and instantaneous incoming shortwave radiation (RSd / RSi) as a factor for converting ETi to ETd. This paper proposes an artificial neural network (ANN) machine-learning algorithm first to predict RSd from RSi followed by using the RSd / RSi ratio to convert ETi to ETd across different terrestrial ecosystems. Using RSi and RSd observations from multiple sub-networks of the FLUXNET database spread across different climates and biomes (to represent inputs that would typically be obtainable from remote sensors during the overpass time) in conjunction with some astronomical variables (e.g. solar zenith angle, day length, exoatmospheric shortwave radiation), we developed the ANN model for reproducing RSd and further used it to upscale ETi to ETd. The efficiency of the ANN is evaluated for different morning and afternoon times of day, under varying sky conditions, and also at different geographic locations. RS-based upscaled ETd produced a significant linear relation (R 2 = 0.65 to 0.69), low bias (-0.31 to -0.56 MJ m-2 d -1 ; approx. 4 %), and good agreement (RMSE 1.55 to 1.86 MJ m-2 d -1 ; approx. 10 %) with the observed ETd, although a systematic overestimation of ETd was also noted under persistent cloudy sky conditions. Inclusion of soil moisture and rainfall information in ANN training reduced the systematic overestimation tendency in predominantly overcast days. An intercomparison with existing upscaling method at daily, 8-day, monthly, and yearly temporal resolution revealed a robust performance of the ANNdriven RS

  8. TAO/TRITON, RAMA, and PIRATA Buoys, Daily, 1989-present, Relative Humidity

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset has daily Relative Humidity data from the TAO/TRITON (Pacific Ocean, https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/ ), RAMA (Indian Ocean,...

  9. Fall-related gait characteristics on the treadmill and in daily life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rispens, Sietse M; Van Dieën, Jaap H; Van Schooten, Kimberley S; Cofré Lizama, L Eduardo; Daffertshofer, Andreas; Beek, Peter J; Pijnappels, Mirjam

    2016-02-02

    Body-worn sensors allow assessment of gait characteristics that are predictive of fall risk, both when measured during treadmill walking and in daily life. The present study aimed to assess differences as well as associations between fall-related gait characteristics measured on a treadmill and in daily life. In a cross-sectional study, trunk accelerations of 18 older adults (72.3 ± 4.5 years) were recorded during walking on a treadmill (Dynaport Hybrid sensor) and during daily life (Dynaport MoveMonitor). A comprehensive set of 32 fall-risk-related gait characteristics was estimated and compared between both settings. For 25 gait characteristics, a systematic difference between treadmill and daily-life measurements was found. Gait was more variable, less symmetric, and less stable during daily life. Fourteen characteristics showed a significant correlation between treadmill and daily-life measurements, including stride time and regularity (0.48  0.25). Gait characteristics revealed less stable, less symmetric, and more variable gait during daily life than on a treadmill, yet about half of the characteristics were significantly correlated between conditions. These results suggest that daily-life gait analysis is sensitive to static personal factors (i.e., physical and cognitive capacity) as well as dynamic situational factors (i.e., behavior and environment), which may both represent determinants of fall risk.

  10. Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

    2010-01-01

    The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger

  11. Estimated daily salt intake in relation to blood pressure and blood lipids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thuesen, Betina H; Toft, Ulla; Buhelt, Lone

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Excessive salt intake causes increased blood pressure which is considered the leading risk for premature death. One major challenge when evaluating associations between daily salt intake and markers of non-communicable diseases is that a high daily salt intake correlates with obesity......, which is also a well described risk factor for poor cardiometabolic outcome. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship of estimated daily salt intake with blood pressure and blood lipids and to investigate the effect of taking different measures of obesity into account. METHODS: We included...... of estimated 24-hour sodium excretion with blood pressure and blood lipids were evaluated by linear regression models. RESULTS: The daily mean estimated intake of salt was 10.80 g and 7.52 g among men and women, respectively. Daily salt intake was significantly associated with blood pressure (β-estimates 1...

  12. Continuous-Time Models, Realized Volatilities, and Testable Distributional Implications for Daily Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben G.; Bollerslev, Tim; Frederiksen, Per Houmann

    that might have generated the data. As such, the tests may serve as a useful diagnostic tool in the specification of empirically more realistic asset pricing models. Our results are also directly related to the popular mixture-of-distributions hypoth- esis and the role of the corresponding latent information......We provide an empirical framework for assessing the distributional properties of daily specu- lative returns within the context of the continuous-time modeling paradigm traditionally used in asset pricing finance. Our approach builds directly on recently developed realized variation measures...... and non-parametric jump detection statistics constructed from high-frequency intra- day data. A sequence of relatively simple-to-implement moment-based tests involving various transforms of the daily returns speak directly to the import of different features of the under- lying continuous-time processes...

  13. Modeling and Predicting the Daily Equatorial Plasma Bubble Activity Using the Tiegcm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, B. A.; Retterer, J. M.; Yizengaw, E.; Wiens, K. C.; Wing, S.; Groves, K. M.; Caton, R. G.; Bridgwood, C.; Francis, M. J.; Terkildsen, M. B.; Norman, R.; Zhang, K.

    2014-12-01

    Describing and understanding the daily variability of Equatorial Plasma Bubble (EPB) occurrence has remained a significant challenge over recent decades. In this study we use the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM), which is driven by solar (F10.7) and geomagnetic (Kp) activity indices, to study daily variations of the linear Rayleigh-Taylor (R-T) instability growth rate in relation to the measured scintillation strength at five longitudinally distributed stations. For locations characterized by generally favorable conditions for EPB growth (i.e., within the scintillation season for that location) we find that the TIEGCM is capable of identifying days when EPB development, determined from the calculated R-T growth rate, is suppressed as a result of geomagnetic activity. Both observed and modeled upward plasma drift indicate that the pre-reversal enhancement scales linearly with Kp from several hours prior, from which it is concluded that even small Kp changes cause significant variations in daily EPB growth. This control of Kp variations on EPB growth prompted an investigation into the use of predicted Kp values from the Wing Kp model over a 2-month equinoctial campaign in 2014. It is found that both the 1-hr and 4-hr predicted Kp values can be reliably used as inputs into the TIEGCM to forecast the EPB growth conditions during scintillation season, when daily EPB variability is governed by the suppression of EPBs on days with increased, but not necessarily high, geomagnetic activity.

  14. Semiparametric Modeling of Daily Ammonia Levels in Naturally Ventilated Caged-Egg Facilities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana María Gutiérrez-Zapata

    Full Text Available Ammonia concentration (AMC in poultry facilities varies depending on different environmental conditions and management; however, this is a relatively unexplored subject in Colombia (South America. The objective of this study was to model daily AMC variations in a naturally ventilated caged-egg facility using generalized additive models. Four sensor nodes were used to record AMC, temperature, relative humidity and wind speed on a daily basis, with 10 minute intervals for 12 weeks. The following variables were included in the model: Heat index, Wind, Hour, Location, Height of the sensor to the ground level, and Period of manure accumulation. All effects included in the model were highly significant (p<0.001. The AMC was higher during the night and early morning when the wind was not blowing (0.0 m/s and the heat index was extreme. The average and maximum AMC were 5.94±3.83 and 31.70 ppm, respectively. Temperatures above 25°C and humidity greater than 80% increased AMC levels. In naturally ventilated caged-egg facilities the daily variations observed in AMC primarily depend on cyclic variations of the environmental conditions and are also affected by litter handling (i.e., removal of the bedding material.

  15. The Daily Relation between Parental Rejection and Emotional Eating in Youngsters: A Diary Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandewalle, Julie; Mabbe, Elien; Debeuf, Taaike; Braet, Caroline; Moens, Ellen

    2017-01-01

    KEY POINTS  Cross-sectional survey studies have demonstrated significant associations between parental rejection and peer rejection on the one hand and disturbed eating in youngsters, like emotional eating, on the other hand. In this study, we wanted to expand our knowledge on these relationships by investigating the daily fluctuations in these variables. Youngsters completed a 7-day diary to assess daily parental rejection, peer rejection and emotional eating. Using multilevel analyses, our results showed that daily variations in parental rejection were related to daily variations in emotional eating of the youngsters. This highlights the importance of addressing the parent-child relationship in interventions for emotional eating in youngsters. Background: This study investigated the daily relation between parental rejection and peer rejection on the one hand and emotional eating in youngsters on the other hand. Methods: Participants (N = 55) between the ages of 11 and 15 years completed a 7-day diary. A multilevel design was used to examine day-to-day within-person relationships between parental and peer rejection (measured by CHS) and emotional eating (measured by DEBQ-C) of youngsters. Results: The results showed that daily variations in parental rejection were related to daily variations in emotional eating of the youngsters. Daily peer rejection was only marginally significantly related to the emotional eating of the youngsters. Conclusions: These results indicate that especially parental rejection, and to a lesser extent peer rejection, are associated with the emotional eating of youngsters. The findings highlight the importance of addressing the parent-child relationship in interventions for emotional eating in youngsters. PMID:28553239

  16. Daily physical activity related to aerobic fitness and body fat in an urban sample of children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, M; Thorsson, O; Karlsson, M K

    2008-01-01

    This study evaluates associations between objectively measured daily physical activity vs aerobic fitness and body fat in children aged 8-11 years. A cross-sectional study of 225 children aged 7.9-11.1 years was performed. Abdominal fat mass (AFM) and total body fat (TBF) were quantified by dual......-energy x-ray absorptiometry. TBF was calculated as percentage of total body mass (BF%). Body fat distribution was calculated as AFM/TBF. Aerobic fitness was measured by indirect calorimetry during a maximal cycle ergometer exercise test. Daily physical activity was assessed by accelerometers for 4 days....... In this population, low daily accumulation of vigorous activity was, already in children aged 8-11 years, associated with more body fat and lower aerobic fitness. A similar relation was not found for daily accumulation of moderate-to-vigorous activity....

  17. [Nutritional status in university students: its relation to the number of daily intakes and macronutrients consumption].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pi, Romina Antonella; Vidal, Paula Daniela; Brassesco, Bárbara Romina; Viola, Lorena; Aballay, Laura Rosana

    2015-04-01

    There is increasing scientific evidence that nutrition influence positive and negative on health along life. Many studies have reported that the student population is a particularly vulnerable group from the nutritional point of view, due to it is characterized by meal skipping frequently and nibble between eating occasions. to establish the relationship between the number of daily dietary intakes and nutritional status in male students aged 23 to 33 years of the National Technological University, in the city of Córdoba, in 2013. in order to achieve this aim, a prospective, cross-sectional and descriptive correlational design was used. Descriptive and inferential analysis were applied by using multiple logistic regression models. Almost 50% of the sample analyzed presented overweight (OW) and 40% high body fat (BF). In relation to the intakes numbers, the students that take less than 4 and more than 6 had 2 times more chance of presenting overweight and high body fat. It was found that as age increases it also does the Body Fat Storage, whereas diminished physical activity increases the chance of having high Body Mass Index and Body Fat. Moreover, high ingestion of carbohydrates increases the chance of high Body Fat and Overweight, and a high intake of protein and lipids increases the risk of high Body Fat. it is recognized that high or low number of daily intakes than recommended, low level of physical activity, high consumption of carbohydrates and having more than 29 years is related to high overweight and body fat. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

  18. Urgency traits moderate daily relations between affect and drinking to intoxication among young adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bold, Krysten W.; Fucito, Lisa M.; DeMartini, Kelly S.; Leeman, Robert F.; Kranzler, Henry R.; Corbin, William R.; O’Malley, Stephanie S.

    2016-01-01

    Background Young adults with higher trait urgency (i.e., a tendency to act rashly in response to heightened affect) may be especially vulnerable to heavy drinking. The current study examined 1) the influence of urgency on daily relations between affect and drinking to intoxication, and 2) whether urgency influenced the effectiveness of naltrexone (vs. placebo) for reducing alcohol use. Methods This study is a secondary analysis of data from 126 (n=40 female) heavy drinking young adults, ages 18–25, enrolled in a double-blind, 8-week clinical trial comparing brief motivational intervention and either naltrexone or placebo. Multilevel models examined whether trait urgency moderated daily relations between positive and negative affect and drinking to intoxication, measured by an estimated blood-alcohol concentration (eBAC) at or above the legal limit (≥0.08g%). Person-level interactions examined whether naltrexone was more effective than placebo at reducing the odds of eBAC≥0.08g% for individuals with higher vs. lower trait urgency. Results On days of greater within-person positive or negative affect, young adults with higher urgency were more likely to drink to intoxication than those with lower urgency. Naltrexone reduced the odds of drinking to intoxication significantly more than placebo, independent of positive or negative urgency. Conclusions Although naltrexone treatment reduced drinking overall, young adults with higher trait urgency were still at increased risk for hazardous drinking following times of strong positive or negative mood. Targeted interventions are needed to reduce the risk of heavy drinking among young adults with high trait urgency. PMID:27875802

  19. Daily stress interacts with trait dissociation to predict sleep-related experiences in young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soffer-Dudek, Nirit; Shahar, Golan

    2011-08-01

    Building on the previously documented effects of stress and dissociation on sleep and dreaming, we examined their interactive role in general sleep-related experiences (GSEs; e.g., nightmares, falling dreams, hypnagogic hallucinations; see Watson, 2001). Stress, sleep quality, and GSEs were assessed daily for 14 days among young adults. Baseline assessment included life stress, sleep quality, psychopathology, dissociation, and related dimensions. Multilevel analyses indicated that daily stress brings about GSEs among highly dissociative young adults. Additionally, baseline trait dissociation predicted within-subject elevation in GSEs when daily stress was high. Flawed sleep-wake transitions, previously linked to dissociation and sleep-related experiences, might account for this effect. © 2011 American Psychological Association

  20. A regional neural network model for predicting mean daily river water temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Tyler; DeWeber, Jefferson Tyrell

    2014-01-01

    Water temperature is a fundamental property of river habitat and often a key aspect of river resource management, but measurements to characterize thermal regimes are not available for most streams and rivers. As such, we developed an artificial neural network (ANN) ensemble model to predict mean daily water temperature in 197,402 individual stream reaches during the warm season (May–October) throughout the native range of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the eastern U.S. We compared four models with different groups of predictors to determine how well water temperature could be predicted by climatic, landform, and land cover attributes, and used the median prediction from an ensemble of 100 ANNs as our final prediction for each model. The final model included air temperature, landform attributes and forested land cover and predicted mean daily water temperatures with moderate accuracy as determined by root mean squared error (RMSE) at 886 training sites with data from 1980 to 2009 (RMSE = 1.91 °C). Based on validation at 96 sites (RMSE = 1.82) and separately for data from 2010 (RMSE = 1.93), a year with relatively warmer conditions, the model was able to generalize to new stream reaches and years. The most important predictors were mean daily air temperature, prior 7 day mean air temperature, and network catchment area according to sensitivity analyses. Forest land cover at both riparian and catchment extents had relatively weak but clear negative effects. Predicted daily water temperature averaged for the month of July matched expected spatial trends with cooler temperatures in headwaters and at higher elevations and latitudes. Our ANN ensemble is unique in predicting daily temperatures throughout a large region, while other regional efforts have predicted at relatively coarse time steps. The model may prove a useful tool for predicting water temperatures in sampled and unsampled rivers under current conditions and future projections of climate

  1. The concentration-response relation between air pollution and daily deaths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, J; Ballester, F; Saez, M; Pérez-Hoyos, S; Bellido, J; Cambra, K; Arribas, F; Cañada, A; Pérez-Boillos, M J; Sunyer, J

    2001-01-01

    Studies on three continents have reported associations between various measures of airborne particles and daily deaths. Sulfur dioxide has also been associated with daily deaths, particularly in Europe. Questions remain about the shape of those associations, particularly whether there are thresholds at low levels. We examined the association of daily concentrations of black smoke and SO(2) with daily deaths in eight Spanish cities (Barcelona, Bilbao, Castellón, Gijón, Oviedo, Valencia, Vitoria, and Zaragoza) with different climates and different environmental and social characteristics. We used nonparametric smoothing to estimate the shape of the concentration-response curve in each city and combined those results using a metasmoothing technique developed by Schwartz and Zanobetti. We extended their method to incorporate random variance components. Black smoke had a nearly linear association with daily deaths, with no evidence of a threshold. A 10 microg/m(3) increase in black smoke was associated with a 0.88% increase in daily deaths (95% confidence interval, 0.56%-1.20%). SO(2) had a less plausible association: Daily deaths increased at very low concentrations, but leveled off and then decreased at higher concentrations. These findings held in both one- and two-pollutant models and held whether we optimized our weather and seasonal model in each city or used the same smoothing parameters in each city. We conclude that the association with particle levels is more convincing than for SO(2), and without a threshold. Linear models provide an adequate estimation of the effect of particulate air pollution on mortality at low to moderate concentrations. PMID:11675264

  2. Daily Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using Hybridizing Wavelet and Artificial Neural Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ani Shabri

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A new method based on integrating discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks (WANN model for daily crude oil price forecasting is proposed. The discrete Mallat wavelet transform is used to decompose the crude price series into one approximation series and some details series (DS. The new series obtained by adding the effective one approximation series and DS component is then used as input into the ANN model to forecast crude oil price. The relative performance of WANN model was compared to regular ANN model for crude oil forecasting at lead times of 1 day for two main crude oil price series, West Texas Intermediate (WTI and Brent crude oil spot prices. In both cases, WANN model was found to provide more accurate crude oil prices forecasts than individual ANN model.

  3. Psychometric analysis and validity of the daily alcohol-related consequences and evaluations measure for young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Christine M; Cronce, Jessica M; Baldwin, Scott A; Fairlie, Anne M; Atkins, David C; Patrick, Megan E; Zimmerman, Lindsey; Larimer, Mary E; Leigh, Barbara C

    2017-03-01

    College students experience a variety of effects resulting from alcohol use and evaluate their experiences on a continuum from negative to positive. Using daily reports collected via cell phone, we examined the psychometric properties of alcohol use consequences and evaluations of those consequences. Participants were 349 undergraduate students (mean age 19.7 [SD = 1.26], 53.4% female). Data were analyzed using a multilevel factor analysis framework, incorporating binary items (consequences) and normally distributed items (evaluations). Our model converged on 2 factors-positive and negative-with similar loadings between- and within-persons. Intraclass correlation coefficients for positive consequences and their evaluations ranged from .30 to .40, whereas values for negative consequences were more variable. Intraclass correlation coefficients for negative evaluations were higher, suggesting evaluations were more trait-like compared to experience of consequences which may be context dependent. Generalizability coefficients on the whole were good to excellent, suggesting highly reliable scales at both person-mean and daily-mean levels. However, likely due to binary scale and infrequency, the generalizability coefficients for negative consequences at the daily level was somewhat low. Convergent validity was demonstrated by (a) positive associations between baseline Rutgers Alcohol Problem Index and Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test scores with latent factors for daily positive and negative consequences, and (b) positive associations between daily drinking and daily consequences and evaluations of consequences. Overall, this measure demonstrated good psychometric properties for use in studies examining daily and lagged relationships between alcohol use and related consequences. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  4. The role of patients' explanatory models and daily-lived experience in hypertension self-management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokhour, Barbara G; Cohn, Ellen S; Cortés, Dharma E; Solomon, Jeffrey L; Fix, Gemmae M; Elwy, A Rani; Mueller, Nora; Katz, Lois A; Haidet, Paul; Green, Alexander R; Borzecki, Ann M; Kressin, Nancy R

    2012-12-01

    Uncontrolled hypertension remains a significant problem for many patients. Few interventions to improve patients' hypertension self-management have had lasting effects. Previous work has focused largely on patients' beliefs as predictors of behavior, but little is understood about beliefs as they are embedded in patients' social contexts. This study aims to explore how patients' "explanatory models" of hypertension (understandings of the causes, mechanisms or pathophysiology, course of illness, symptoms and effects of treatment) and social context relate to their reported daily hypertension self-management behaviors. Semi-structured qualitative interviews with a diverse group of patients at two large urban Veterans Administration Medical centers. PARTICIPANTS (OR PATIENTS OR SUBJECTS): African-American, white and Latino Veterans Affairs (VA) primary care patients with uncontrolled blood pressure. We conducted thematic analysis using tools of grounded theory to identify key themes surrounding patients' explanatory models, social context and hypertension management behaviors. Patients' perceptions of the cause and course of hypertension, experiences of hypertension symptoms, and beliefs about the effectiveness of treatment were related to different hypertension self-management behaviors. Moreover, patients' daily-lived experiences, such as an isolated lifestyle, serious competing health problems, a lack of habits and routines, barriers to exercise and prioritizing lifestyle choices, also interfered with optimal hypertension self-management. Designing interventions to improve patients' hypertension self-management requires consideration of patients' explanatory models and their daily-lived experience. We propose a new conceptual model - the dynamic model of hypertension self-management behavior - which incorporates these key elements of patients' experiences.

  5. Depression among unaccompanied minor refugees: the relative contribution of general and acculturation-specific daily hassles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keles, Serap; Friborg, Oddgeir; Idsøe, Thormod; Sirin, Selcuk; Oppedal, Brit

    2016-01-01

    This study is designed to provide an empirical conceptualization of daily hassles among unaccompanied refugees, and whether they might affect mental health of young refugees after resettlement. First, we examined the underlying structure of daily hassles conceptualized as measuring general and acculturation-specific hassles. Second, we examined whether these two distinct categories of daily hassles significantly contribute to depression above and beyond the impact of premigration trauma. The study was based on self-report questionnaire data collected from 895 unaccompanied refugees who had been granted residence in Norway. Using structural equation modeling, the results confirmed the grouping of hassles in two general categories, which explained 43% of the variance in depression. The findings underscore the importance of current life conditions for unaccompanied refugees' mental health.

  6. A Bigraph Relational Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beauquier, Maxime; Schürmann, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we present a model based on relations for bigraphical reactive system [Milner09]. Its defining characteristics are that validity and reaction relations are captured as traces in a multi-set rewriting system. The relational model is derived from Milner's graphical definition...

  7. Caregiver Quality of Life and Daily Functioning in Relation to Ventilating Tube Treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heidemann, Christian Hamilton; Lauridsen, Henrik Hein; Kjeldsen, Anette Drøhse

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Caregiver quality of life and daily functioning may improve after ventilating tube treatment in children with otitis media. The aims of this study are to assess possible changes in caregiver quality of life and daily functioning in relation to ventilating tube treatment...... rates ranged from 96% to 79%. Significant improvements in disease-specific quality of life were seen after treatment. The poorest baseline quality of life was found in caregivers of children with recurrent acute otitis media. Significant improvements were found on all variables on daily functioning....... Predictors for caregiver-perceived clinical success included child sex, number of interrupted nights, doctor visits, absenteeism, and cancelled social activities. CONCLUSION: Results of this study support the notion that caregivers of children with otitis media with defined surgical indications improve...

  8. Accelerometer-measured daily physical activity related to aerobic fitness in children and adolescents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, Magnus; Andersen, Lars Bo

    2011-01-01

    if they included measurement of daily physical activity by accelerometry and related to a [Vdot]O(2PEAK) either measured directly at a maximal exercise test or estimated from maximal power output. A total of nine studies were identified, with a total number of 6116 children and adolescents investigated. Most......Maximum oxygen uptake ([Vdot]O(2PEAK)) is generally considered to be the best single marker for aerobic fitness. While a positive relationship between daily physical activity and aerobic fitness has been established in adults, the relationship appears less clear in children and adolescents....... The purpose of this paper is to summarise recently published data on the relationship between daily physical activity, as measured by accelerometers, and [Vdot]O(2PEAK) in children and adolescents. A PubMed search was performed on 29 October 2010 to identify relevant articles. Studies were considered relevant...

  9. A parametric daily precipitation model application in Botswana ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Results show that Markov-chain (MC) model can be used to model the persistence behaviour of the transition probability matrix (TPM) of dry and wet day rainfall sequences. With the MC model, the two-parameter gamma distribution is found to be most robust and suitable model to describe the magnitude of rainfall depths in ...

  10. Models as Relational Categories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kokkonen, Tommi

    2017-11-01

    Model-based learning (MBL) has an established position within science education. It has been found to enhance conceptual understanding and provide a way for engaging students in authentic scientific activity. Despite ample research, few studies have examined the cognitive processes regarding learning scientific concepts within MBL. On the other hand, recent research within cognitive science has examined the learning of so-called relational categories. Relational categories are categories whose membership is determined on the basis of the common relational structure. In this theoretical paper, I argue that viewing models as relational categories provides a well-motivated cognitive basis for MBL. I discuss the different roles of models and modeling within MBL (using ready-made models, constructive modeling, and generative modeling) and discern the related cognitive aspects brought forward by the reinterpretation of models as relational categories. I will argue that relational knowledge is vital in learning novel models and in the transfer of learning. Moreover, relational knowledge underlies the coherent, hierarchical knowledge of experts. Lastly, I will examine how the format of external representations may affect the learning of models and the relevant relations. The nature of the learning mechanisms underlying students' mental representations of models is an interesting open question to be examined. Furthermore, the ways in which the expert-like knowledge develops and how to best support it is in need of more research. The discussion and conceptualization of models as relational categories allows discerning students' mental representations of models in terms of evolving relational structures in greater detail than previously done.

  11. Accelerometer-measured daily physical activity related to aerobic fitness in children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dencker, Magnus; Andersen, Lars B

    2011-06-01

    Maximum oxygen uptake (VO(2PEAK)) is generally considered to be the best single marker for aerobic fitness. While a positive relationship between daily physical activity and aerobic fitness has been established in adults, the relationship appears less clear in children and adolescents. The purpose of this paper is to summarise recently published data on the relationship between daily physical activity, as measured by accelerometers, and VO(2PEAK) in children and adolescents. A PubMed search was performed on 29 October 2010 to identify relevant articles. Studies were considered relevant if they included measurement of daily physical activity by accelerometry and related to a VO(2PEAK) either measured directly at a maximal exercise test or estimated from maximal power output. A total of nine studies were identified, with a total number of 6116 children and adolescents investigated. Most studies reported a low-to-moderate relationship (r = 0.10-0.45) between objectively measured daily physical activity and VO(2PEAK). No conclusive evidence exists that physical activity of higher intensities are more closely related to VO(2PEAK), than lower intensities.

  12. An empirical model of daily highs and lows of West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Angela W.W.; Wan, Alan T.K.; Kwok, Jerry T.K.

    2010-01-01

    There is a large collection of literature on energy price forecasting, but most studies typically use monthly average or close-to-close daily price data. In practice, the daily price range constructed from the daily high and low also contains useful information on price volatility and is used frequently in technical analysis. The interaction between the daily high and low and the associated daily range has been examined in several recent studies on stock price and exchange rate forecasts. The present paper adopts a similar approach to analyze the behaviour of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price over a ten-year period. We find that daily highs and lows of the WTI oil price are cointegrated, with the error correction term being closely approximated by the daily price range. Two forecasting models, one based on a vector error correction mechanism and the other based on a transfer function framework with the range taken as a driver variable, are presented for forecasting the daily highs and lows. The results show that both of these models offer significant advantages over the naive random walk and univariate ARIMA models in terms of out-of-sample forecast accuracy. A trading strategy that makes use of the daily high and low forecasts is further developed. It is found that this strategy generally yields very reasonable trading returns over an evaluation period of about two years. (author)

  13. Linear and regressive stochastic models for prediction of daily maximum ozone values at Mexico City atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bravo, J. L [Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Nava, M. M [Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Gay, C [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

    2001-07-01

    We developed a procedure to forecast, with 2 or 3 hours, the daily maximum of surface ozone concentrations. It involves the adjustment of Autoregressive Integrated and Moving Average (ARIMA) models to daily ozone maximum concentrations at 10 monitoring atmospheric stations in Mexico City during one-year period. A one-day forecast is made and it is adjusted with the meteorological and solar radiation information acquired during the first 3 hours before the occurrence of the maximum value. The relative importance for forecasting of the history of the process and of meteorological conditions is evaluated. Finally an estimate of the daily probability of exceeding a given ozone level is made. [Spanish] Se aplica un procedimiento basado en la metodologia conocida como ARIMA, para predecir, con 2 o 3 horas de anticipacion, el valor maximo de la concentracion diaria de ozono. Esta basado en el calculo de autorregresiones y promedios moviles aplicados a los valores maximos de ozono superficial provenientes de 10 estaciones de monitoreo atmosferico en la Ciudad de Mexico y obtenidos durante un ano de muestreo. El pronostico para un dia se ajusta con la informacion meteorologica y de radiacion solar correspondiente a un periodo que antecede con al menos tres horas la ocurrencia esperada del valor maximo. Se compara la importancia relativa de la historia del proceso y de las condiciones meteorologicas previas para el pronostico. Finalmente se estima la probabilidad diaria de que un nivel normativo o preestablecido para contingencias de ozono sea rebasado.

  14. DAILY RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELLING BY NEURAL NETWORKS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    K. Benzineb, M. Remaoun

    2016-09-01

    Sep 1, 2016 ... The hydrologic behaviour modelling of w. Journal of Fundamental and Applied Scienc. ISSN 1112-9867. Available online at http://www.jfas.inf. Journal of Fundamental and Applied S. International License. Libraries Resource Directory. We a. INFALL-RUNOFF MODELLING BY NEURAL NETWORKS IN.

  15. RELATION OF DAILY PERIODS OF VLF RADIATION WITH X-RAY SOURCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Druzhin, G.I.

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Spectral analysis of electromagnetic noise radiation in the VLF range at three fixed frequencies for the period from 1997 to 2015 have been carried out. Periodograms with diurnal components associated with the periods of the Earth rotation relatively the Sun and the stars have been obtained. It has been shown that the Sun х-radiation and the galaxy х-radiation affect daily variations of VLF radiation.

  16. The effects of disease-related symptoms on daily function in Wolfram Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doty, Tasha; Foster, Erin R; Marshall, Bess; Ranck, Samantha; Hershey, Tamara

    2017-01-01

    To investigate daily function among individuals with Wolfram Syndrome (WFS) and examine whether any limitations are related to disease-related symptoms. WFS ( n = 31), Type 1 diabetic (T1DM; n = 25), and healthy control (HC; n = 29) participants completed the Pediatric Quality of Life Questionnaire (PEDSQL) Self and Parent Report. PEDSQL domain scores were compared among these groups and between WFS patients with and without specific disease-related symptoms. Relationships between PEDSQL scores and symptom severity as assessed by the Wolfram Unified Rating Scale (WURS) Physical Scale were also examined. Across most domains, the WFS group had lower PEDSQL Self and Parent Report scores than the T1DM and HC groups. WFS participants with urinary, sleep, and temperature regulation problems had lower PEDSQL scores than those without. The WURS Physical Scale correlated with Self and Parent Report PEDSQL domains. WFS group Self and Parent Reports correlated with each other. The WFS group reported lower daily function compared to T1DM and HC groups. Within WFS, worse symptom severity and the specific symptoms of sleep, temperature regulation, and urinary problems were associated with poorer daily function. These findings provide rationale for an increased emphasis on identifying, treating and understanding these less well-known symptoms of WFS.

  17. The effects of disease-related symptoms on daily function in Wolfram Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doty, Tasha; Foster, Erin R.; Marshall, Bess; Ranck, Samantha; Hershey, Tamara

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate daily function among individuals with Wolfram Syndrome (WFS) and examine whether any limitations are related to disease-related symptoms. METHODS: WFS (n = 31), Type 1 diabetic (T1DM; n = 25), and healthy control (HC; n = 29) participants completed the Pediatric Quality of Life Questionnaire (PEDSQL) Self and Parent Report. PEDSQL domain scores were compared among these groups and between WFS patients with and without specific disease-related symptoms. Relationships between PEDSQL scores and symptom severity as assessed by the Wolfram Unified Rating Scale (WURS) Physical Scale were also examined. RESULTS: Across most domains, the WFS group had lower PEDSQL Self and Parent Report scores than the T1DM and HC groups. WFS participants with urinary, sleep, and temperature regulation problems had lower PEDSQL scores than those without. The WURS Physical Scale correlated with Self and Parent Report PEDSQL domains. WFS group Self and Parent Reports correlated with each other. CONCLUSIONS: The WFS group reported lower daily function compared to T1DM and HC groups. Within WFS, worse symptom severity and the specific symptoms of sleep, temperature regulation, and urinary problems were associated with poorer daily function. These findings provide rationale for an increased emphasis on identifying, treating and understanding these less well-known symptoms of WFS. PMID:29130034

  18. [Development of social activities-related daily life satisfaction scale for the elderly and evaluation of its reliability and validity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okamoto, Hideaki

    2010-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a Social Activities-Related Daily Life Satisfaction Scale specifically applicable to elderly people in communities and to evaluate its reliability and validity. Sixteen items were extracted from an initial pool and assessed for inclusion in the scale by correlation and exploratory factor analyses. To confirm validity, confirmatory factor analysis was conducted and correlation coefficients were calculated. In addition, t-tests were performed in order to generate scores of the subscale related to activity. To prove reliability, Cronbach's coefficient alpha values were calculated. Data for 755 older adults aged 65 to 84 years were obtained from a mail survey in Ichikawa City, Chiba Prefecture. Exploratory factor analyses indicated that four factors, "satisfaction with learning" (four items), "satisfaction with usefulness to others and society" (four items), "satisfaction with health and physical strength" (three items), and "satisfaction with friends" (three items) should be extracted. Confirmatory factor analysis for assessing the 14-item four-factor model showed high goodness of fit indices (GFI = 0.943, AGFI = 0.915, RMSEA = 0.068). Concurrent validity was established by comparing the score of the scale with five external variables (Activity and Daily Life Satisfaction Scale for the Elderly, Life Satisfaction Index K, etc). Student's t-tests revealed that each score of the subscale was positively associated with activity variable. The overall Cronbach's coefficient alpha for the scale was 0.919 and for its four subscales values ranged from 0.814 to 0.887. A Social Activities-Related Daily Life Satisfaction Scale was derived consisting of four subscales, "satisfaction with learning", "satisfaction with usefulness to others and society", "satisfaction with health and physical strength", and "satisfaction with friends". The results of the present study suggested that the Social Activities-Related Daily Life Satisfaction Scale

  19. Sleep disorders as primary and secondary factors in relation with daily functioning in medical students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdulah, Deldar Morad; Piro, Rasoul Sabri

    2018-01-01

    College students experience various types of sleep disorders that impact daily functioning. Previous studies have focused on the effect of one sleep disorder. Examine factors that might relate to several sleep disorders and the impacts of sleep disorders on the daily functioning in medical students. Cross-sectional study. Medical college. A random sample of medical students from a public university was invited to participate in a cross-sectional study using the structured SLEEP-50 self-reported questionnaire. The sleep disorders covered by the questionnaire were insomnia, sleep apnea, restless legs syndrome, sleep walking, circadian rhythm sleep disorder, nightmares, narcolepsy, and factors impacting sleep, effects of sleep complaints on daily functioning, and sleeping duration. Sleep duration, sleep disorders. Of 317 participants, 165 (50.2%) reported having less than 7 hours sleep and apart from hyper-somnia, had various kinds of sleep disorders. Various factors such as having no pleasure and entertainment, feeling sadness, alcohol drinking, amount of sleeping hours, smoking, age, a noisy or light bedroom, and substance abuse were related to different sleep disorders. Moreover, students with sleep disorders felt tired arising, felt sleepy during the day, were easily irritated, had difficulty in concentration, had concerns about amount of sleep, and slept badly at college. Insufficient sleep is a common issue in medical students and a number of sleep disorders were found. The results suggest that sleep disorders could have negative impacts on the daily functioning of students. The study findings may not be generalizable because sociocultural characteristics of the sample may differ from the general population.

  20. A new prediction model of daily weather elements in Hainan province under the typhoon weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Ruixu; Gao, Wensheng; Zhang, Bowen; Chen, Qinzhu; Liang, Yafeng; Yao, Dong; Han, Laijun; Liao, Xinzheng; Li, Ruihai

    2017-11-01

    This paper proposes a new prediction model for severe natural disasters, especially typhoon using daily weather analysis. Hainan province in China is selected to be a typical application region, where natural disasters, especially typhoons take place frequently. These disasters have great impacts on the life and property safety of the residents, and therefore are in specific need of accurate prediction. A new prediction model of daily weather in Hainan province under the typhoon weather is proposed in this paper based on the best track datasets of typhoons and the corresponding daily weather data. This model utilizes the statistical methods and data mining technology in combination with the dynamic migration information of tropical cyclones and can provide the dynamic prediction of daily weather elements in any designated location. Three surface meteorological observation stations of Hainan province during the years 1951-1920 are used to test the model. Test results show that the prediction equations established for the vast majority of daily weather elements have passed the significant test. Besides, Typhoon Damrey is used as a case to illustrate the whole daily weather prediction model in detail and comparisons between the model and other official forecast (such as JTWC, UKMO and CMA) are performed thoroughly. It is worth noting that the model proposed in this paper is not limited to Hainan province and can be generalized to other areas in the world.

  1. Instantaneous-to-daily GPP upscaling schemes based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model: correcting the overestimation of GPP by directly using daily average meteorological inputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fumin; Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Black, T Andrew; Zhou, Bin

    2014-11-01

    Daily canopy photosynthesis is usually temporally upscaled from instantaneous (i.e., seconds) photosynthesis rate. The nonlinear response of photosynthesis to meteorological variables makes the temporal scaling a significant challenge. In this study, two temporal upscaling schemes of daily photosynthesis, the integrated daily model (IDM) and the segmented daily model (SDM), are presented by considering the diurnal variations of meteorological variables based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model. The two models, as well as a simple average daily model (SADM) with daily average meteorological inputs, were validated using the tower-derived gross primary production (GPP) to assess their abilities in simulating daily photosynthesis. The results showed IDM closely followed the seasonal trend of the tower-derived GPP with an average RMSE of 1.63 g C m(-2) day(-1), and an average Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E) of 0.87. SDM performed similarly to IDM in GPP simulation but decreased the computation time by >66%. SADM overestimated daily GPP by about 15% during the growing season compared to IDM. Both IDM and SDM greatly decreased the overestimation by SADM, and improved the simulation of daily GPP by reducing the RMSE by 34 and 30%, respectively. The results indicated that IDM and SDM are useful temporal upscaling approaches, and both are superior to SADM in daily GPP simulation because they take into account the diurnally varying responses of photosynthesis to meteorological variables. SDM is computationally more efficient, and therefore more suitable for long-term and large-scale GPP simulations.

  2. [Cognitive reserve in substance addicts in treatment: relation to cognitive performance and activities of daily living].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedrero-Pérez, Eduardo J; Rojo-Mota, Gloria; Ruiz-Sánchez de León, José M; Fernández-Méndez, Laura M; Morales-Alonso, Sara; Prieto-Hidalgo, Ana

    2014-12-01

    The concept of cognitive reserve has gradually attracted more interest as a greater body of evidence has been collected on its relationship with the resistance of the brain to decline in its functioning when faced with neurological threats or disorders. Although a large amount of research has been conducted on (degenerative, traumatic, psychopathological) conditions, very few studies relate cognitive reserve with substance addiction, a multidimensional process with a clear neurological base. To explore the cognitive reserve of patients undergoing treatment for addiction to drugs of abuse by relating it with their cognitive performance in neuropsychological tests and in activities of daily living. The study involved a sample of 57 patients being treated for substance abuse at a centre set up for this specific purpose. The cognitive reserve questionnaire, the Montreal cognitive assessment and the prefrontal symptoms inventory were administered, and variables related with the addiction were collected. A positive relation was found between the cognitive reserve and the time of abstinence, and a negative one was seen with the severity of the addiction. Significant differences were observed according to the cognitive reserve in neuropsychological performance (especially in certain cognitive domains) and in daily activities. The cognitive reserve appears as a variable related to addiction and the cognitive deficits that accompany it. It is thus a potential target for rehabilitation activities and is linked to the environmental enrichment paradigm, as a strategy for enhancing resistance against the cognitive impairment that favours and maintains the addiction, and for lowering the reinforcing potential of the behaviour of consuming.

  3. Modeling daily soil salinity dynamics in response to agricultural and environmental changes in coastal Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payo, Andrés.; Lázár, Attila N.; Clarke, Derek; Nicholls, Robert J.; Bricheno, Lucy; Mashfiqus, Salehin; Haque, Anisul

    2017-05-01

    Understanding the dynamics of salt movement in the soil is a prerequisite for devising appropriate management strategies for land productivity of coastal regions, especially low-lying delta regions, which support many millions of farmers around the world. At present, there are no numerical models able to resolve soil salinity at regional scale and at daily time steps. In this research, we develop a novel holistic approach to simulate soil salinization comprising an emulator-based soil salt and water balance calculated at daily time steps. The method is demonstrated for the agriculture areas of coastal Bangladesh (˜20,000 km2). This shows that we can reproduce the dynamics of soil salinity under multiple land uses, including rice crops, combined shrimp and rice farming, as well as non-rice crops. The model also reproduced well the observed spatial soil salinity for the year 2009. Using this approach, we have projected the soil salinity for three different climate ensembles, including relative sea-level rise for the year 2050. Projected soil salinity changes are significantly smaller than other reported projections. The results suggest that inter-season weather variability is a key driver of salinization of agriculture soils at coastal Bangladesh.

  4. Changes and Attribution of Extreme Precipitation in Climate Models: Subdaily and Daily Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, W.; Villarini, G.; Scoccimarro, E.; Vecchi, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme precipitation events are responsible for numerous hazards, including flooding, soil erosion, and landslides. Because of their significant socio-economic impacts, the attribution and projection of these events is of crucial importance to improve our response, mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here we present results from our ongoing work.In terms of attribution, we use idealized experiments [pre-industrial control experiment (PI) and 1% per year increase (1%CO2) in atmospheric CO2] from ten general circulation models produced under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the fraction of attributable risk to examine the CO2 effects on extreme precipitation at the sub-daily and daily scales. We find that the increased CO2 concentration substantially increases the odds of the occurrence of sub-daily precipitation extremes compared to the daily scale in most areas of the world, with the exception of some regions in the sub-tropics, likely in relation to the subsidence of the Hadley Cell. These results point to the large role that atmospheric CO2 plays in extreme precipitation under an idealized framework. Furthermore, we investigate the changes in extreme precipitation events with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) climate experiments using the scenarios consistent with the 1.5°C and 2°C temperature targets. We find that the frequency of annual extreme precipitation at a global scale increases in both 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios until around 2070, after which the magnitudes of the trend become much weaker or even negative. Overall, the frequency of global annual extreme precipitation is similar between 1.5°C and 2°C for the period 2006-2035, and the changes in extreme precipitation in individual seasons are consistent with those for the entire year. The frequency of extreme precipitation in the 2°C experiments is higher than for the 1.5°C experiment after the late 2030s, particularly for the period 2071-2100.

  5. Modeling Daily Rainfall Conditional on Atmospheric Predictors: An application to Western Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Kaleris, Vassilios

    2013-04-01

    Due to its intermittent and highly variable character, daily precipitation is the least well reproduced hydrologic variable by both General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Limited Area Models (LAMs). To that extent, several statistical procedures (usually referred to as downscaling schemes) have been suggested to generate synthetic rainfall time series conditional on predictor variables that are descriptive of the atmospheric circulation at the mesoscale. In addition to be more accurately simulated by GCMs and LAMs, large-scale atmospheric predictors are important indicators of the local weather. Currently used downscaling methods simulate rainfall series using either stable statistical relationships (usually referred to as transfer functions) between certain characteristics of the rainfall process and mesoscale atmospheric predictor variables, or simple stochastic schemes (e.g. properly transformed autoregressive models) with parameters that depend on the large-scale atmospheric conditions. The latter are determined by classifying large-scale circulation patterns into broad categories of weather states, using empirical or theoretically based classification schemes, and modeled by resampling from those categories; a process usually referred to as weather generation. In this work we propose a statistical framework to generate synthetic rainfall timeseries at a daily level, conditional on large scale atmospheric predictors. The latter include the mean sea level pressure (MSLP), the magnitude and direction of upper level geostrophic winds, and the 500 hPa geopotential height, relative vorticity and divergence. The suggested framework operates in continuous time, avoiding the use of transfer functions, and weather classification schemes. The suggested downscaling approach is validated using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive (see http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/index), and daily rainfall data from Western Greece, for the 14-year period from 01 October

  6. time series modeling of daily abandoned calls in a call centre

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DJFLEX

    Models for evaluating and predicting the short periodic time series in daily abandoned calls in a call center are developed. Abandonment of calls due to impatient is an identified problem among most call centers. The two competing models were derived using Fourier series and the Box and Jenkins modeling approaches.

  7. Simple model for daily evaporation from fallow tilled soil under spring conditions in a temperate climate.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boesten, J.J.T.I.; Stroosnijder, L.

    1986-01-01

    A simple parametric model is presented to estimate daily evaporation from fallow tilled soil under spring conditions in a temperate climate. In this model, cumulative actual evaporation during a drying cycle is directly proportional to the square root of cumulative potential evaporation. The model

  8. Time series modeling of daily abandoned calls in a call centre ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Models for evaluating and predicting the short periodic time series in daily abandoned calls in a call center are developed. Abandonment of calls due to impatient is an identified problem among most call centers. The two competing models were derived using Fourier series and the Box and Jenkins modeling approaches.

  9. Modelling daily PM2.5 concentrations at high spatio-temporal resolution across Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Hoogh, Kees; Héritier, Harris; Stafoggia, Massimo; Künzli, Nino; Kloog, Itai

    2018-02-01

    Spatiotemporal resolved models were developed predicting daily fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations across Switzerland from 2003 to 2013. Relatively sparse PM 2.5 monitoring data was supplemented by imputing PM 2.5 concentrations at PM 10 sites, using PM 2.5 /PM 10 ratios at co-located sites. Daily PM 2.5 concentrations were first estimated at a 1 × 1km resolution across Switzerland, using Multiangle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD) data in combination with spatiotemporal predictor data in a four stage approach. Mixed effect models (1) were used to predict PM 2.5 in cells with AOD but without PM 2.5 measurements (2). A generalized additive mixed model with spatial smoothing was applied to generate grid cell predictions for those grid cells where AOD was missing (3). Finally, local PM 2.5 predictions were estimated at each monitoring site by regressing the residuals from the 1 × 1km estimate against local spatial and temporal variables using machine learning techniques (4) and adding them to the stage 3 global estimates. The global (1 km) and local (100 m) models explained on average 73% of the total,71% of the spatial and 75% of the temporal variation (all cross validated) globally and on average 89% (total) 95% (spatial) and 88% (temporal) of the variation locally in measured PM 2.5 concentrations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. A conceptual model of daily water balance following partial clearing from forest to pasture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Bari

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available A simple conceptual water balance model representing the streamflow generation processes on a daily time step following land use change is presented. The model consists of five stores: (i Dry, Wet and Subsurface Stores for vertical and lateral water flow, (ii a transient Stream zone Store (iii a saturated Goundwater Store. The soil moisture balance in the top soil Dry and Wet Stores are the most important components of the model and characterize the dynamically varying saturated areas responsible for surface runoff, interflow and deep percolation. The Subsurface Store describes the unsaturated soil moisture balance, extraction of percolated water by vegetation and groundwater recharge. The Groundwater Store controls the baseflow to stream (if any and the groundwater contribution to the stream zone saturated areas. The daily model was developed following a downward approach by analysing data from Ernies (control and Lemon (53% cleared catchments in Western Australia and elaborating a monthly model. The daily model performed very well in simulating daily flow generation processes for both catchments. Most of the model parameters were incorporated a priori from catchment attributes such as surface slope, soil depth, porosity, stream length and initial groundwater depth, and some were calibrated by matching the observed and predicted hydrographs. The predicted groundwater depth, and streamflow volumes across all time steps from daily to monthly to annual were in close agreement with observations for both catchments.

  11. Daily Copper and Manganese Intakes and Their Relation to Blood Pressure in Normotensive Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yeon-Kyung; Lyu, Eun-Soon; Oh, Se-Young; Park, Hae-Ryun; Ro, Hee-Kyong; Heo, Young-Ran; Hyun, Taisun

    2015-01-01

    Although it has been proposed that trace minerals have anti-oxidative functions and are related to the control of blood pressure, only a limited number of studies directly address the issue. Thus, the purpose of our study was to assess the intake of copper and manganese, which are trace minerals, and to clarify their relation to blood pressure. In a cross-sectional study, the blood pressure of 640 normotensive adults, from 19 to 69 year-old (320 males and 320 females), was measured, and its correlation with the intake of copper and manganese was assessed using a 24-hour dietary recall method. The average value of the blood pressure was 126.4/80.2 mmHg for the males and 117.8/75.8 mmHg for the females. The daily copper intake was 1.3 mg/day for the males and 1.2 mg/day for the females. For manganese, the daily intake was 4.2 mg/day for the males and 4.1 mg/day for the females. Although the copper intake of all subjects showed a positive correlation with the systolic and diastolic blood pressures, there was no significant correlation when the potential confounding factors were adjusted. The manganese intake of the male subjects had a significantly negative correlation with the systolic blood pressure after adjusting for gender, age, body mass index, and energy intake. In conclusion, the daily manganese intake of the normotensitve adults showed a significantly negative correlation with the systolic blood pressure indicating a possibility of a positive effect of manganese on blood pressure. PMID:26566521

  12. Daily global solar radiation modelling using multi-layer perceptron neural networks in semi-arid region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mawloud GUERMOUI

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Accurate estimation of Daily Global Solar Radiation (DGSR has been a major goal for solar energy application. However, solar radiation measurements are not a simple task for several reasons. In the cases where data are not available, it is very common the use of computational models to estimate the missing data, which are based mainly of the search for relationships between weather variables, such as temperature, humidity, sunshine duration, etc. In this respect, the present study focuses on the development of artificial neural network (ANN model for estimation of daily global solar radiation on horizontal surface in Ghardaia city (South Algeria. In this analysis back-propagation algorithm is applied. Daily mean air temperature, relative humidity and sunshine duration was used as climatic inputs parameters, while the daily global solar radiation (DGSR was the only output of the ANN. We have evaluated Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP models to estimate DGSR using three year of measurement (2005-2008. It was found that MLP-model based on sunshine duration and mean air temperature give accurate results in term of Mean Absolute Bias Error, Root Mean Square Error, Relative Square Error and Correlation Coefficient. The obtained values of these indicators are 0.67 MJ/m², 1.28 MJ/m², 6.12%and 98.18%, respectively which shows that MLP is highly qualified for DGSR estimation in semi-arid climates.

  13. Linking Excessive Heat with Daily Heat-Related Mortality over the Coterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

    2014-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air

  14. Patterns of daily energy management at work: relations to employee well-being and job characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnunen, Ulla; Feldt, Taru; de Bloom, Jessica; Korpela, Kalevi

    2015-11-01

    The present study aimed at identifying subgroups of employees with similar daily energy management strategies at work and finding out whether well-being indicators and job characteristics differ between these subgroups. The study was conducted by electronic questionnaire among 1122 Finnish employees. First, subgroups of employees with unique and distinctive patterns of energy management strategies were identified using latent profile analysis. Second, differences in well-being indicators and job characteristics between the subgroups were investigated by means of ANCOVA. Four subgroups (i.e., patterns) were identified and named: Passives (n = 371), Averages (n = 390), Casuals (n = 272) and Actives (n = 89). Passives used all three (i.e., work-related, private micro-break and physical micro-break) strategies less frequently than other subgroups, whereas Actives used work-related and physical energy management strategies more frequently than other subgroups. Averages used all strategies on an average level. Casuals' use of all strategies came close to that of Actives, notably in a shared low use of private micro-break strategies. Active and Casual patterns maintained vigor and vitality. Autonomy and social support at work played a significant role in providing opportunities for the use of beneficial energy management strategies. Autonomy and support at work seem to support active and casual use of daily energy management, which is important in staying energized throughout the working day.

  15. Daily operation optimisation of hybrid stand-alone system by model predictive control considering ageing model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dufo-López, Rodolfo; Fernández-Jiménez, L. Alfredo; Ramírez-Rosado, Ignacio J.; Artal-Sevil, J. Sergio; Domínguez-Navarro, José A.; Bernal-Agustín, José L.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Method for optimising the daily operation of photovoltaic-wind-diesel-battery systems. • Weather forecasts of hourly wind speed, irradiation, temperature and load are used. • Each day five control variables are optimised for the control of the system. • Operating cost includes real ageing of the batteries and the diesel generator. • Results show that the optimal control strategy used for each day led to cost savings. - Abstract: This article presents a method for optimising the daily operation (minimising the total operating cost) of a hybrid photovoltaic-wind-diesel-battery system using model predictive control. The model uses actual weather forecasts of hourly values of wind speed, irradiation, temperature and load. Five control variables are optimised, and thus their optimal set points values determine the optimal control strategy for each day. This involves the use of an accurate model for estimating the degradation of the batteries by considering the capacity loss due to corrosion and degradation. The model considers the extra costs of maintaining and replacing the diesel generator due to running out of its optimal conditions. The optimisation is carried out by means of genetic algorithms. An example of application compares the total operating cost obtained using the optimal control strategy for each day with the cost of using the optimal control strategy found for the whole year, obtaining savings of up to 7.8%. Also the comparison with the cost of using the “load following” control strategy is analysed, obtaining savings of up to 37.7%.

  16. Modelling dense relational data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herlau, Tue; Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard

    2012-01-01

    Relational modelling classically consider sparse and discrete data. Measures of influence computed pairwise between temporal sources naturally give rise to dense continuous-valued matrices, for instance p-values from Granger causality. Due to asymmetry or lack of positive definiteness they are no......Relational modelling classically consider sparse and discrete data. Measures of influence computed pairwise between temporal sources naturally give rise to dense continuous-valued matrices, for instance p-values from Granger causality. Due to asymmetry or lack of positive definiteness...... they are not naturally suited for kernel K-means. We propose a generative Bayesian model for dense matrices which generalize kernel K-means to consider off-diagonal interactions in matrices of interactions, and demonstrate its ability to detect structure on both artificial data and two real data sets....

  17. Methods and strategy for modeling daily global solar radiation with measured meteorological data - A case study in Nanchang station, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Guofeng; Liu, Yaolin; Wang, Tiejun

    2007-01-01

    Solar radiation is a primary driver for many physical, chemical and biological processes on the earth's surface, and complete and accurate solar radiation data at a specific region are quite indispensable to the solar energy related researches. This study, with Nanchang station, China, as a case study, aimed to calibrate existing models and develop new models for estimating missing global solar radiation data using commonly measured meteorological data and to propose a strategy for selecting the optimal models under different situations of available meteorological data. Using daily global radiation, sunshine hours, temperature, total precipitation and dew point data covering the years from 1994 to 2005, we calibrated or developed and evaluated seven existing models and two new models. Validation criteria included intercept, slope, coefficient of determination, mean bias error and root mean square error. The best result (R 2 = 0.93) was derived from Chen model 2, which uses sunshine hours and temperature as predictors. The Bahel model, which only uses sunshine hours, was almost as good, explaining 92% of the solar radiation variance. Temperature based models (Bristow and Campbell, Allen, Hargreaves and Chen 1 models) provided less accurate results, of which the best one (R 2 = 0.69) is the Bristow and Campbell model. The temperature based models were improved by adding other variables (daily mean total precipitation and mean dew point). Two such models could explain 77% (Wu model 1) and 80% (Wu model 2) of the solar radiation variance. We, thus, propose a strategy for selecting an optimal method for calculating missing daily values of global solar radiation: (1) when sunshine hour and temperature data are available, use Chen model 2; (2) when only sunshine hour data are available, use Bahel model; (3) when temperature, total precipitation and dew point data are available but not sunshine hours, use Wu model 2; (4) when only temperature and total precipitation are

  18. Modelling and forecasting monthly and daily river discharge data using hybrid models and considering autoregressive heteroscedasticity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szolgayova, Elena

    2010-05-01

    hydrological models. However, the GARCH family of models proved to be suited in removing it only in daily time step. The basic GARCH model was not applicable on any of the time series. In all other investigated cases, the EGARCH(1,1) model had to be used. Unlike in econometric time series, where the so called leverage effect (i.e. the series reacts more strongly to negative changes) is present and pointed out by this model, here the data tends to react more strongly on positive changes. In this particular case it was found, that the general property of hydrological processes, that the rise of discharge is rainfall driven (a highly nonlinear chaotic intermittent process) and the decrease of discharge is ruled by the damping effects of the water storage in the driven system (catchment or river reach), is present also in the hydrological model error series. This shows, that the modelling and forecasting of floods (pulse like rising discharge) is a more demanding task than that of droughts (slowly decreasing flows). Even though the GARCH models did show partial improvements in the modelling and forecasting of flows, they still have several serious disadvantages (such as high sensitivity to the chosen fitting period) and possible further use should be further investigated. These results are of importance with respect to future attempts of modelling of error time series of hydrological models in such hybrid frameworks. They underpin the need of a non-mechanistic approach in the case based analysis of such data and the physical interpretation of statistical modelling results.

  19. Relations between mothers' daily work, home, and relationship stress with characteristics of mother-child conflict interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Jackie A; Boyer, Brittany P; Villarreal, Deyaun L; Smith, Olivia A

    2017-06-01

    This study examined whether daily variations in levels of mothers' work, home, and relationship stress were related to collaborative and oppositional qualities of mother-child conflict interactions across 1 week. Mothers reported on 1 specific conflict interaction with their 5- to 8-year-old child and their work, home, and relationship stress through online surveys each day for 7 consecutive days. Diary data from 142 mothers were analyzed in 6 multilevel models, each including within- and between-family levels of a stressor predicting collaborative or oppositional conflict qualities. Results suggested that families in the sample differed from each other, and also varied during the week, in collaborative and oppositional conflict qualities as well as stress in all 3 domains. Mothers reported a greater degree of oppositional conflict qualities on days characterized by higher perceptions of home chaos. Additionally, mothers who reported higher average levels of negativity in romantic relationships endorsed oppositional conflict qualities to a greater extent than mothers with lower relationship negativity. Two multilevel models including all 3 stressors in relation to collaborative and oppositional conflict revealed that for mothers managing multiple roles, average romantic relationship stress was the most important unique contributor to mother-child conflict qualities and daily relationship stress was particularly influential among mothers with sons compared to those with daughters. Results support the spillover hypothesis of stress within the family system and are discussed in terms of mothers' coping mechanisms and emotional engagement. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMA-GARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ooms, M.; Koopman, S.J.; Carnero, A.M.

    2007-01-01

    Novel periodic extensions of dynamic long-memory regression models with autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic errors are considered for the analysis of daily electricity spot prices. The parameters of the model with mean and variance specifications are estimated simultaneously by the method of

  1. How Do Pain, Fatigue, Depressive, and Cognitive Symptoms Relate to Well-Being and Social and Physical Functioning in the Daily Lives of Individuals With Multiple Sclerosis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kratz, Anna L; Braley, Tiffany J; Foxen-Craft, Emily; Scott, Eric; Murphy, John F; Murphy, Susan L

    2017-11-01

    To examine the relative association between daily change in pain, fatigue, depressed mood, and cognitive function and 4 outcomes-positive affect and well-being, ability to participate in social roles and activities, upper extremity (UE) functioning, and lower extremity (LE) functioning. Data analysis, multilevel mixed modeling. General community. Ambulatory adults (N=102) with multiple sclerosis. Not applicable. Customized short-forms of the Quality of Life in Neurological Disorders positive affect and well-being, UE functioning, and LE functioning item banks and the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System ability to participate in social roles and activities item bank adapted for daily use and administered as end-of-day diaries. Above and beyond the effects of demographic and clinical covariates, daily pain was associated with 3 of the 4 outcomes; days of higher than usual pain were related to lower same-day social participation (unstandardized β, B=-1.00; P=.002), UE functioning (B=-1.04; P=.01), and LE functioning (B=-.71; P=.04). Daily fatigue and depressed mood were independently related to daily positive affect and well-being; days of worse fatigue (B=-.54; P=.006) and depressed mood (B=-1.17; Psocial and physical functioning, whereas increases in fatigue and depressed mood are related to lower daily well-being. Findings implicate a person-centered approach to monitoring and treating symptoms. Copyright © 2017 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Episode-specific drinking-to-cope motivation, daily mood, and fatigue-related symptoms among college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armeli, Stephen; O'Hara, Ross E; Ehrenberg, Ethan; Sullivan, Tami P; Tennen, Howard

    2014-09-01

    The goal of the present study was to examine whether within-person, episode-specific changes in drinking-to-cope (DTC) motivation from the previous evening were associated with concurrent daily mood and fatigue-related symptoms among college student drinkers (N = 1,421; 54% female). We conducted an Internet-based daily diary study in which students reported over 30 days on their previous night's drinking level and motivation and their current mood (i.e., sadness, anxiety, anger/hostility, and positive mood) and fatigue-related symptoms. Hypotheses were tested using hierarchical linear models in which the current day's outcome was predicted by last night's levels of DTC motivation and drinking, controlling for drinking to enhance motivation, sex, current day's physical symptoms and drinking, and yesterday's level of the outcome. Subsequent models also predicted outcomes 2 days following the drinking event. Relative increases in previous night's DTC motivation were associated with higher levels of current day negative mood and fatigue-related symptoms and lower levels of positive mood. Also, the association between episode-specific DTC motivation and negative mood was stronger in the positive direction when individuals reported higher levels of nonsocial drinking from the previous night. Last, episode-specific DTC showed similar associations with sadness and anger/hostility 2 days after the drinking event. The results are generally consistent with the posited attention allocation and ego-depletion mechanisms. Findings suggest that the deleterious effects of repeated episodes of DTC, over time, could help to explain the increased likelihood of alcohol-related problems seen in prior studies.

  3. Examining the Effects of Video Modeling and Prompts to Teach Activities of Daily Living Skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldi, Catarina; Crigler, Alexandra; Kates-McElrath, Kelly; Long, Brian; Smith, Hillary; Rehak, Kim; Wilkinson, Lisa

    2016-12-01

    Video modeling has been shown to be effective in teaching a number of skills to learners diagnosed with autism spectrum disorders (ASD). In this study, we taught two young men diagnosed with ASD three different activities of daily living skills (ADLS) using point-of-view video modeling. Results indicated that both participants met criterion for all ADLS. Participants did not maintain mastery criterion at a 1-month follow-up, but did score above baseline at maintenance with and without video modeling. • Point-of-view video models may be an effective intervention to teach daily living skills. • Video modeling with handheld portable devices (Apple iPod or iPad) can be just as effective as video modeling with stationary viewing devices (television or computer). • The use of handheld portable devices (Apple iPod and iPad) makes video modeling accessible and possible in a wide variety of environments.

  4. Climate change web picker. A tool bridging daily climate needs in process based modelling in forestry and agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palma, J.H.N.

    2017-01-01

    Aim of study: Climate data is a need for different types of modeling assessments, especially those involving process based modeling focusing on climate change impacts. However, there is a scarcity of tools delivering easy access to climate datasets to use in biological related modeling. This study aimed at the development of a tool that could provide an user-friendly interface to facilitate access to climate datasets, that are used to supply climate scenarios for the International Panel on Climate Change. Area of study: The tool provides daily datasets across Europe, and also parts of northern Africa Material and Methods: The tool uses climatic datasets generated from third party sources (IPCC related) while a web based interface was developed in JavaScript to ease the access to the datasets Main Results: The interface delivers daily (or monthly) climate data from a user-defined location in Europe for 7 climate variables: minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, radiation, minimum and maximum relative humidity and wind speed). The time frame ranges from 1951 to 2100, providing the basis to use the data for climate change impact assessments. The tool is free and publicly available at http://www.isa.ulisboa.pt/proj/clipick/. Research Highlights: A new and easy-to-use tool is suggested that will promote the use of climate change scenarios across Europe, especially when daily time steps are needed. CliPick eases the communication between climatic and modelling communities such as agriculture and forestry.

  5. Climate change web picker. A tool bridging daily climate needs in process based modelling in forestry and agriculture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palma, J.H.N.

    2017-11-01

    Aim of study: Climate data is a need for different types of modeling assessments, especially those involving process based modeling focusing on climate change impacts. However, there is a scarcity of tools delivering easy access to climate datasets to use in biological related modeling. This study aimed at the development of a tool that could provide an user-friendly interface to facilitate access to climate datasets, that are used to supply climate scenarios for the International Panel on Climate Change. Area of study: The tool provides daily datasets across Europe, and also parts of northern Africa Material and Methods: The tool uses climatic datasets generated from third party sources (IPCC related) while a web based interface was developed in JavaScript to ease the access to the datasets Main Results: The interface delivers daily (or monthly) climate data from a user-defined location in Europe for 7 climate variables: minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, radiation, minimum and maximum relative humidity and wind speed). The time frame ranges from 1951 to 2100, providing the basis to use the data for climate change impact assessments. The tool is free and publicly available at http://www.isa.ulisboa.pt/proj/clipick/. Research Highlights: A new and easy-to-use tool is suggested that will promote the use of climate change scenarios across Europe, especially when daily time steps are needed. CliPick eases the communication between climatic and modelling communities such as agriculture and forestry.

  6. Extracting aerobic system dynamics during unsupervised activities of daily living using wearable sensor machine learning models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beltrame, Thomas; Amelard, Robert; Wong, Alexander; Hughson, Richard L

    2018-02-01

    Physical activity levels are related through algorithms to the energetic demand, with no information regarding the integrity of the multiple physiological systems involved in the energetic supply. Longitudinal analysis of the oxygen uptake (V̇o 2 ) by wearable sensors in realistic settings might permit development of a practical tool for the study of the longitudinal aerobic system dynamics (i.e., V̇o 2 kinetics). This study evaluated aerobic system dynamics based on predicted V̇o 2 data obtained from wearable sensors during unsupervised activities of daily living (μADL). Thirteen healthy men performed a laboratory-controlled moderate exercise protocol and were monitored for ≈6 h/day for 4 days (μADL data). Variables derived from hip accelerometer (ACC HIP ), heart rate monitor, and respiratory bands during μADL were extracted and processed by a validated random forest regression model to predict V̇o 2 . The aerobic system analysis was based on the frequency-domain analysis of ACC HIP and predicted V̇o 2 data obtained during μADL. Optimal samples for frequency domain analysis (constrained to ≤0.01 Hz) were selected when ACC HIP was higher than 0.05 g at a given frequency (i.e., participants were active). The temporal characteristics of predicted V̇o 2 data during μADL correlated with the temporal characteristics of measured V̇o 2 data during laboratory-controlled protocol ([Formula: see text] = 0.82, P system dynamics can be investigated during unsupervised activities of daily living by wearable sensors. Although speculative, these algorithms have the potential to be incorporated into wearable systems for early detection of changes in health status in realistic environments by detecting changes in aerobic response dynamics. NEW & NOTEWORTHY The early detection of subclinical aerobic system impairments might be indicative of impaired physiological reserves that impact the capacity for physical activity. This study is the first to use wearable

  7. Improving Stochastic Modelling of Daily Rainfall Using the ENSO Index: Model Development and Application in Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Urdiales

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Stochastic weather simulation, or weather generators (WGs, have gained a wide acceptance and been used for a variety of purposes, including climate change studies and the evaluation of climate variability and uncertainty effects. The two major challenges in WGs are improving the estimation of interannual variability and reducing overdispersion in the synthetic series of simulated weather. The objective of this work is to develop a WG model of daily rainfall, incorporating a covariable that accounts for interannual variability, and apply it in three climate regions (arid, Mediterranean, and temperate of Chile. Precipitation occurrence was modeled using a two-stage, first-order Markov chain, whose parameters are fitted with a generalized lineal model (GLM using a logistic function. This function considers monthly values of the observed Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies of the Region 3.4 of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO index as a covariable. Precipitation intensity was simulated with a mixed exponential distribution, fitted using a maximum likelihood approach. The stochastic simulation shows that the application of the approach to Mediterranean and arid climates largely eliminates the overdispersion problem, resulting in a much improved interannual variability in the simulated values.

  8. Whether, when, and how is spirituality related to well-being? Moving beyond single occasion questionnaires to understanding daily process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashdan, Todd B; Nezlek, John B

    2012-11-01

    Prior research suggests that spirituality is positively related to well-being. Nevertheless, within-person variability in spirituality has yet to be addressed. Do people experience greater spirituality on some days versus others? Does daily spirituality predict daily well-being? Do within-person relationships between spirituality and well-being vary as a function of trait spirituality? The authors examined such questions using a daily diary study with 87 participants who provided reports of their daily spirituality and well-being for a total of 1,239 days. They found that daily spirituality was positively related to meaning in life, self-esteem, and positive affect, and the link from daily spirituality to both self-esteem and positive affect was fully mediated by meaning in life. Moreover, within-person relationships between daily spirituality and self-esteem and meaning in life were stronger for people higher in trait spirituality. Lagged analyses found positive relationships between present day spirituality and next day's meaning in life; there was no evidence for meaning in life as a predictor of the next day's spirituality. When focusing on affect, for people higher in trait spirituality, greater negative affect (and lower positive affect) predicted greater spirituality the next day. These results provide new insights into how spirituality operates as a fluctuating experience in daily life.

  9. Model for Multiple Imputation to Estimate Daily Rainfall Data and Filling of Faults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Ruy Porto de Carvalho

    Full Text Available Abstract Modeling by multiple enchained imputation is an area of growing importance. However, its models and methods are frequently developed for specific applications. In this study the model for multiple imputation was used to estimate daily rainfall data. Daily precipitation records from several meteorological stations were used, obtained from system AGRITEMPO for two homogenous climatic zones. The precipitation values obtained for two dates (Jan. 20th 2005 and May 2nd 2005 using the multiple imputation model were compared with geo-statistics techniques ordinary Kriging and Co-kriging with the altitude as an auxiliary variable. The multiple imputation model was 16% better for the first zone and over 23% for the second one, compared to the rainfall estimation obtained by geo-statistical techniques. The model proved to be a versatile technique, presenting coherent results with the conditions of different zones and times.

  10. Interrelationship among the health-related and subjective quality of life, daily life activities, instrumental activities of daily living of community-dwelling elderly females in orthopedic outpatients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takemasa, Seiichi; Nakagoshi, Ryoma; Uesugi, Masayuki; Inoue, Yuri; Gotou, Makoto; Naruse, Susumu; Nanba, Yoshihumi

    2017-05-01

    [Purpose] This study aimed to examine the health-related and subjective quality of life of community-dwelling elderly females in orthopedic outpatients, and also examined how such quality of life correlate with their daily life activities and instrumental activities of daily living. [Subjects and Methods] Subjects were 27 community-dwelling elderly females in orthopedic outpatients (mean age: 76.3 ± 7.4 years). Their health-related quality of life and subjective quality of life, life-space assessment, frenchay activities index were researched. [Results] For the relationships between the total subjective quality of life scores and health-related quality of life scores, significant positive correlations were observed for body pain, general health, vitality, social functions and mental health. The correlations were not statistically significant between the subjective quality of life scores and the life-space assessment and frenchay activities index scores. The correlations were statistically significant between some health-related quality of life scores and the life-space assessment and frenchay activities index scores. [Conclusion] The results suggest that supporting community-dwelling elderly females in orthopedic outpatients to improve their sense of physical and mental well-being, and prevent and reduce their depression and physical pain, is required in order to improve their QOL.

  11. Daily fluctuations in teachers' well-being: a diary study using the Job Demands-Resources model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simbula, Silvia

    2010-10-01

    The study tests the dynamic nature of the Job Demands-Resources model with regard to both motivational and health impairment processes. It does so by examining whether daily fluctuations in co-workers' support (i.e., a typical job resource) and daily fluctuations in work/family conflict (i.e., a typical job demand) predict day-levels of job satisfaction and mental health through work engagement and exhaustion, respectively. A total of 61 schoolteachers completed a general questionnaire and a daily survey over a period of five consecutive work days. Multilevel analyses provided evidence for both the above processes. Consistently with the hypotheses, our results showed that day-level work engagement mediated the impact of day-level co-workers' support on day-level job satisfaction and day-level mental health, after general levels of work engagement and outcome variables had been controlled for. Moreover, day-level exhaustion mediated the relationship between day-level work/family conflict and day-level job satisfaction and day-level mental health after general levels of exhaustion and outcome variables had been controlled for. These findings provide new insights into the dynamic psychological processes that determine daily fluctuations in employee well-being. Such insights may be transformed into job redesign strategies and other interventions designed to enhance work-related psychological well-being on a daily level.

  12. Pain-related impairment of daily activities after thoracic surgery: a questionnaire validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringsted, Thomas K; Wildgaard, Kim; Kreiner, Svend; Kehlet, Henrik

    2013-09-01

    Persistent postoperative pain is an acknowledged entity that reduces daily activities. Evaluation of the post-thoracotomy pain syndrome (PTPS) is often measured using traditional pain scales without in-depth questions on pain impairment. Thus, the purpose was to create a procedure-specific questionnaire for assessment of functional impairment due to PTPS. Activities were obtained from the literature supplemented by interviews with patients and surgeons. The questionnaire was validated using the Rasch model in order to describe an underlying pain impairment scale. Four of 17 questions were redundant. The remaining 13 questions from low to intensive activity described functional impairment following persistent pain from thoracotomy and video-assisted thoracic surgery (VATS). No evidence for differential item functioning for gender, age or differences between open or VATS, were found. A generalized log-linear Rasch model including local dependence was constructed. Though local dependence influenced reliability, the test-retest reliability estimated under the log-linear Rasch model was high (0.88-0.96). Correlation with items from the Disability of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (quick) questionnaire supported validity (γ = 0.46, P impairment questionnaire measured 2 qualitatively different pain dimensions although highly correlated (γ = 0.76). This study presents method, results and validation of a new unidimensional scale measuring procedure specific functional impairment due to PTPS following open surgery and VATS. Procedure specific tools such as this could provide important outcomes measures for future trials on persistent postsurgical pain states allowing better assessment of interventions (250).

  13. Development and evaluation of neural network models to estimate daily solar radiation at Córdoba, Argentina

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bocco, M.

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this work was to develop neural network models of backpropagation type to estimate solar radiation based on extraterrestrial radiation data, daily temperature range, precipitation, cloudiness and relative sunshine duration. Data from Córdoba, Argentina, were used for development and validation. The behaviour and adjustment between values observed and estimates obtained by neural networks for different combinations of input were assessed. These estimations showed root mean square error between 3.15 and 3.88 MJ m -2 d -1 . The latter corresponds to the model that calculates radiation using only precipitation and daily temperature range. In all models, results show good adjustment to seasonal solar radiation. These results allow inferring the adequate performance and pertinence of this methodology to estimate complex phenomena, such as solar radiation [pt

  14. Nurses' daily life: gender relations from the time spent in hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Audrey Vidal Pereira

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to analyze the everyday life of nurses through the sexual work division as well as through interdependence relations and the time in hospital.Method: quanti-qualitative study, based on the Time Use Survey and in Norbert Elias's Configuration Theory of Interdependencies. Daily shifts distribution record, directed by 42 participants - with self-confrontation - by interviews which drew dialogues on subjective aspects of the everyday experiences related to use of time, based on a job at a university hospital. The theoretical intake that founded data analysis was based on concepts of conflicts of interest, power struggles, sexual work division and polychronic-monochronic concepts - whether the work environment demands multitasking nurses or not.Results: time records allowed to observe differences between the groups studied, useful to identify conflicts, tensions, power struggles and gender inequalities in interviewees' everyday affairs that do not only affect physical and mental health, but also their way of life.Conclusion: the analytical path pointed out the need for public policies that promote equity in gender relations, keeping at sight the exercise of plural discourses and tolerant stances capable to respect differences between individual and collective time.

  15. Relation between living environment and daily activities of disabled sport engaged people

    OpenAIRE

    Triščenko, Nikita

    2016-01-01

    The aim of research work: Establish interfaces between living environment and daily acitivity of disabled athletes. Tasks of work: 1. To rate daily activity of disabled athletes. 2. To rate living environment adaptation of disabled athletes. 3. To determine the interfaces between living environment adaptation and daily activity of disabled athletes. Materials and methods: The research was performed from February 2016 to April 2016 at disabled sports and day care club “Friendship“. The study i...

  16. Daily movements of female white-tailed deer relative to parturition and breeding.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gino J. D' Angelo; Christopher E. Comer; John C. Kilgo; Cory D. Drennan; David A. Osborn; Karl V. Miller

    2005-10-01

    Abstract: To assess how white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) herd demographics influence reproductive behaviors, we examined 24-h diel movements of female whitetailed deer relative to parturition and breeding in a low-density population with a near even sex ratio at the Savannah River Site (SRS), South Carolina. We conducted a series of intensive, 24-h radio-tracking periods of 13 females during spring and fall 2002. We compared daily range (ha), rate of travel (m/h), and distance between extreme daily locations (m), among the periods of pre-parturition and post-parturition and pre-, peak-, and post-rut. From pre-parturition to post-parturition, we observed decreases in diel range size (–38.2%), distance between extreme diel locations (–17.0%), and diel rate of travel (–18.2%). Diel range size, distance between extreme diel locations, and diel rate of travel during the pre-rut and rut exceeded those observed during post-rut. We further identified substantial increases in mobility during 12 24-h diel periods for eight females during our fall monitoring. Our data suggest that female white-tailed deer reduce mobility post-fawning following exaggerated movements during pre-parturition. Furthermore, despite a near equal sex ratio, estrous does may be required to actively seek potential mates due to low population density.

  17. Coupled daily streamflow and water temperature modelling in large river basins

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.T.H.; Yearsley, J.R.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Kabat, P.

    2012-01-01

    Realistic estimates of daily streamflow and water temperature are required for effective management of water resources (e.g. for electricity and drinking water production) and freshwater ecosystems. Although hydrological and process-based water temperature modelling approaches have been successfully

  18. Loneliness in the daily lives of young adults: Testing a socio-cognitive model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roekel, G.H. van; Ha, P.T.; Scholte, R.H.J.; Engels, R.C.M.E.; Verhagen, M.

    2016-01-01

    A socio-cognitive model of loneliness states that lonely people are characterized by two characteristics, hypersensitivity to social threat and hyposensitivity to social reward. However, these characteristics have not yet been examined in the daily lives of young adults. Therefore, the main aim of

  19. Loneliness in the daily lives of young adults : Testing a socio-cognitive model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Roekel, E.; Ha, Thao; Scholte, Ron H. J.; Engels, Rutger C. M. E.; Verhagen, Maaike

    2016-01-01

    A socio-cognitive model of loneliness states that lonely people are characterized by two characteristics, hypersensitivity to social threat and hyposensitivity to social reward. However, these characteristics have not yet been examined in the daily lives of young adults. Therefore, the main aim of

  20. Loneliness in the Daily Lives of Young Adults : Testing a Socio-cognitive Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Roekel, Eeske; Ha, Thao; Scholte, Ron H. J.; Engels, Rutger C. M. E.; Verhagen, Maaike

    2016-01-01

    A socio-cognitive model of loneliness states that lonely people are characterized by two characteristics, hypersensitivity to social threat and hyposensitivity to social reward. However, these characteristics have not yet been examined in the daily lives of young adults. Therefore, the main aim of

  1. Diurnal Temperature Range in Relation to Daily Mortality and Years of Life Lost in Wuhan, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yunquan; Yu, Chuanhua; Yang, Jin; Zhang, Lan; Cui, Fangfang

    2017-08-08

    Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological indicator associated with global climate change, and has been linked with mortality and morbidity in previous studies. To date, however, little evidence has been available regarding the association of DTR with years of life lost (YLL). This study aimed to evaluate the DTR-related burden on both YLL and mortality. We collected individual records of all registered deaths and daily meteorological data in Wuhan, central China, between 2009 and 2012. For the whole population, every 1 °C increase in DTR at a lag of 0-1 days was associated with an increase of 0.65% (95% CI: 0.08-1.23) and 1.42 years (-0.88-3.72) for mortality and YLL due to non-accidental deaths, respectively. Relatively stronger DTR-mortality/YLL associations were found for cardiovascular deaths. Subgroup analyses (stratified by gender, age, and education level) showed that females, the elderly (75+ years old), and those with higher education attainment (7+ years) suffered more significantly from both increased YLL and mortality due to large DTR. Our study added additional evidence that short-term exposure to large DTR was associated with increased burden of premature death using both mortality incidence and YLL.

  2. Influence of daily versus monthly fire emissions on atmospheric model applications in the tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, M. E.; Voulgarakis, A.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.; DeFries, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    Fires are widely used throughout the tropics to create and maintain areas for agriculture, but are also significant contributors to atmospheric trace gas and aerosol concentrations. However, the timing and magnitude of fire activity can vary strongly by year and ecosystem type. For example, frequent, low intensity fires dominate in African savannas whereas Southeast Asian peatland forests are susceptible to huge pulses of emissions during regional El Niño droughts. Despite the potential implications for modeling interactions with atmospheric chemistry and transport, fire emissions have commonly been input into global models at a monthly resolution. Recognizing the uncertainty that this can introduce, several datasets have parsed fire emissions to daily and sub-daily scales with satellite active fire detections. In this study, we explore differences between utilizing the monthly and daily Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) products as inputs into the NASA GISS-E2 composition climate model. We aim to understand how the choice of the temporal resolution of fire emissions affects uncertainty with respect to several common applications of global models: atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climate. Focusing our analysis on tropical ozone, carbon monoxide, and aerosols, we compare modeled concentrations with available ground and satellite observations. We find that increasing the temporal frequency of fire emissions from monthly to daily can improve correlations with observations, predominately in areas or during seasons more heavily affected by fires. Differences between the two datasets are more evident with public health applications: daily resolution fire emissions increases the number of days exceeding World Health Organization air quality targets.

  3. A spatial time series framework for modeling daily precipitationat regional scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kyriakidis, Phaedon C.; Miller, Norman L.; Kim, Jinwon

    2001-11-14

    In this paper, a framework for stochastic spatiotemporal modeling of daily precipitation in a hindcast mode is presented. Observed precipitation levels in space and time are modeled as a joint realization of a collection of space-indexed time series, one for each spatial location. Time series model parameters are spatially varying, thus capturing space-time interactions. Stochastic simulation, i.e., the procedure of generating alternative precipitation realizations (synthetic fields) over the space-time domain of interest (Deutsch and Journel, 1998), is employed for ensemble prediction. The simulated daily precipitation fields reproduce a data-based histogram and spatiotemporal covariance model, and identify the measured precipitation values at the rain gauges (conditional simulation). Such synthetic precipitation fields can be used in a Monte Carlo framework for risk analysis studies in hydrologic impact assessment investigations.

  4. Applicability of Daily Solar Radiation Estimated by Mountain Microclimate Simulation Model (MT-CLIM) in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shim, K.M.; Kim, Y.S.; Lee, D.B.; Kang, K.K.; So, K.H.

    2012-01-01

    Accuracy of daily solar radiation estimated from a Mountain Microclimate Simulation Model (MT-CLIM) was assessed for seven observation sites with complex topography in Uiseong County. The coefficient of determination () between the observed and the estimated daily solar radiation was 0.52 for 7 sites for the study period from 1 August to 30 September 2009. Overall, the MT-CLIM overestimated the solar radiation with root mean square error (RMSE) of which is about 25% of the mean daily solar radiation () for the study period. Considering that the pyranometer's tolerance is of standard sensor, the RMSE of MT-CLIM was too large to accept for a direct application for agricultural sector. The reliability of solar radiation estimated by MT-CLIM must be improved by considering additional ways such as using a topography correction coefficient

  5. Advanced Daily Prediction Model for National Suicide Numbers with Social Media Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyung Sang; Lee, Hyewon; Myung, Woojae; Song, Gil-Young; Lee, Kihwang; Kim, Ho; Carroll, Bernard J; Kim, Doh Kwan

    2018-04-01

    Suicide is a significant public health concern worldwide. Social media data have a potential role in identifying high suicide risk individuals and also in predicting suicide rate at the population level. In this study, we report an advanced daily suicide prediction model using social media data combined with economic/meteorological variables along with observed suicide data lagged by 1 week. The social media data were drawn from weblog posts. We examined a total of 10,035 social media keywords for suicide prediction. We made predictions of national suicide numbers 7 days in advance daily for 2 years, based on a daily moving 5-year prediction modeling period. Our model predicted the likely range of daily national suicide numbers with 82.9% accuracy. Among the social media variables, words denoting economic issues and mood status showed high predictive strength. Observed number of suicides one week previously, recent celebrity suicide, and day of week followed by stock index, consumer price index, and sunlight duration 7 days before the target date were notable predictors along with the social media variables. These results strengthen the case for social media data to supplement classical social/economic/climatic data in forecasting national suicide events.

  6. Daily Rainfall Simulation Using Climate Variables and Nonhomogeneous Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, J.; Kim, H. S.; Joo, H. J.; Han, D.

    2017-12-01

    Markov chain is an easy method to handle when we compare it with other ones for the rainfall simulation. However, it also has limitations in reflecting seasonal variability of rainfall or change on rainfall patterns caused by climate change. This study applied a Nonhomogeneous Hidden Markov Model(NHMM) to consider these problems. The NHMM compared with a Hidden Markov Model(HMM) for the evaluation of a goodness of the model. First, we chose Gum river basin in Korea to apply the models and collected daily rainfall data from the stations. Also, the climate variables of geopotential height, temperature, zonal wind, and meridional wind date were collected from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to consider external factors affecting the rainfall event. We conducted a correlation analysis between rainfall and climate variables then developed a linear regression equation using the climate variables which have high correlation with rainfall. The monthly rainfall was obtained by the regression equation and it became input data of NHMM. Finally, the daily rainfall by NHMM was simulated and we evaluated the goodness of fit and prediction capability of NHMM by comparing with those of HMM. As a result of simulation by HMM, the correlation coefficient and root mean square error of daily/monthly rainfall were 0.2076 and 10.8243/131.1304mm each. In case of NHMM, the correlation coefficient and root mean square error of daily/monthly rainfall were 0.6652 and 10.5112/100.9865mm each. We could verify that the error of daily and monthly rainfall simulated by NHMM was improved by 2.89% and 22.99% compared with HMM. Therefore, it is expected that the results of the study could provide more accurate data for hydrologic analysis. Acknowledgements This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning(2017R1A2B3005695)

  7. A No-Arbitrage Fractional Cointegration Model for Futures and Spot Daily Ranges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rossi, Eduardo; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

    2013-01-01

    The no-arbitrage relation between futures and spot prices implies an analogous relation between futures and spot daily ranges. The long-memory features of the range-based volatility estimators are analyzed, and fractional cointegration is tested in a semi-parametric framework. In particular, the no...... highlight the importance of incorporating the long-run equilibrium in volatilities to obtain better forecasts, given the information content in the volatility of futures prices....

  8. Daily physical activity and its relation to aerobic fitness in children aged 8-11 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, Magnus; Thorsson, Ola; Karlsson, Magnus K.

    2006-01-01

    Abstract  A positive relationship between daily physical activity and aerobic fitness exists in adults. Studies in children have given conflicting results, possibly because of differences in methods used to assess daily physical activity and fitness. No study regarding daily physical activity...... in vigorous physical activity were calculated. VO2PEAK was correlated with mean accelerometer counts (r=0.23 for boys and r=0.23 for girls, both Pvigorous activity (r=0.32 for boys, r=0.30 for girls, both P... regardless of the method used to adjust for differences in body size....

  9. Revision and proposed modification for a total maximum daily load model for Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wherry, Susan A.; Wood, Tamara M.; Anderson, Chauncey W.

    2015-01-01

    This report presents Phase 2 of the review and development of the mass balance water-quality model, originally developed in 2001, that guided establishment of the phosphorus (P) total maximum daily load (TMDL) for Upper Klamath and Agency Lakes, Oregon. The purpose of Phase 2 was to incorporate a longer (19-year) set of external phosphorus loading data into the lake TMDL model than had originally been available, and to develop a proof-of-concept method for modeling algal mortality and the consequent decrease in chlorophyll a that had not been possible with the 2001 TMDL model formulation.

  10. Modeling of daily body weights and body weight changes of Nordic Red cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mäntysaari, P; Mäntysaari, E A

    2015-10-01

    Increased availability of automated weighing systems have made it possible to record massive amounts of body weight (BW) data in a short time. If the BW measurement is unbiased, the changes in BW reflect the energy status of the cow and can be used for management or breeding purposes. The usefulness of the BW data depends on the reliability of the measures. The noise in BW measurements can be smoothed by fitting a parametric or time series model into the BW measurements. This study examined the accuracy of different models to predict BW of the cows based on daily BW measurements and investigated the usefulness of modeling in increasing the value of BW measurements as management and breeding tools. Data included daily BW measurements, production, and intake from 230 Nordic Red dairy cows. The BW of the cows was recorded twice a day on their return from milking. In total, the data included 50,594 daily observations with 98,418 BW measurements. A clear diurnal change was present in the BW of the cows even if they had feed available 24 h. The daily average BW were used in the modeling. Five different models were tested: (1) a cow-wise fixed second-order polynomial regression model (FiX) including the exponential Wilmink term, (2) a random regression model with fixed and random animal lactation stage functions (MiX), (3) MiX with 13 periods of weighing added (PER), (4) natural cubic smoothing splines with 8 equally spaced knots (SPk8), and (5) spline model with no restriction on knots but a smoothing parameter corresponding to a fit of 5 degrees of freedom (SPdf5). In the original measured BW data, the within-animal variation was 6.4% of the total variance. Modeling decreased the within animal variation to levels of 2.9 to 5.1%. The smallest day-to-day variation and thereafter highest day-to-day repeatabilities were with PER and MiX models. The usability of modeled BW as energy balance (EB) indicator were evaluated by estimating relationships between EB, or EB

  11. [A questionnaire study on health of taxi drivers--relations to work conditions and daily life].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ueda, T; Hashimoto, M; Yasui, I; Sunaga, M; Higashida, T; Hara, I

    1989-05-01

    A questionnaire survey was conducted on 5,523 taxi drivers in Osaka Prefecture to investigate their working conditions and daily life as well as characteristics of their health condition and various effects on health, especially on their cardiovascular system. The major results of this survey were as follows: 1) The rate of subjective symptoms, morbidity rate and rate of poor physical condition over the past year in the taxi drivers were higher than those of the control group. Among the subjective symptoms, the rate of gastrointestinal disorders, fatigue, musculoskeletal system disorders, sensory system disorders, hemorrhoids, etc. was especially high. 2) Work shift, density of work, years of experience in taxi-driving, frequency of fright while driving, pattern of taking meals, way of recuperation on rest days or holidays, obesity, smoking, and intake of coffee and alcohol were found to be factors affecting the health of taxi drivers. 3) Nearly half of the respondents said that they would like to quit or change their job with as much as 62% giving "condition of health" as reason. On the other hand, the rate of heart-related symptoms such as palpitation, and breathlessness did not differ from that of the control group. The possible reason for this deduced from the foregoing results, is that there were some who had changed or quit the job at an early stage for health reasons such as heart trouble and severe physical and mental burden resulting from taxi driving. 4) Many taxi driver are obese and the rate of those with heart-related symptoms was considerably high among those classified as obese. In addition, the results showed that those with longer driving experience tended to be obese.

  12. Estimating daily minimum, maximum, and mean near surface air temperature using hybrid satellite models across Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfeld, Adar; Dorman, Michael; Schwartz, Joel; Novack, Victor; Just, Allan C; Kloog, Itai

    2017-11-01

    Meteorological stations measure air temperature (Ta) accurately with high temporal resolution, but usually suffer from limited spatial resolution due to their sparse distribution across rural, undeveloped or less populated areas. Remote sensing satellite-based measurements provide daily surface temperature (Ts) data in high spatial and temporal resolution and can improve the estimation of daily Ta. In this study we developed spatiotemporally resolved models which allow us to predict three daily parameters: Ta Max (day time), 24h mean, and Ta Min (night time) on a fine 1km grid across the state of Israel. We used and compared both the Aqua and Terra MODIS satellites. We used linear mixed effect models, IDW (inverse distance weighted) interpolations and thin plate splines (using a smooth nonparametric function of longitude and latitude) to first calibrate between Ts and Ta in those locations where we have available data for both and used that calibration to fill in neighboring cells without surface monitors or missing Ts. Out-of-sample ten-fold cross validation (CV) was used to quantify the accuracy of our predictions. Our model performance was excellent for both days with and without available Ts observations for both Aqua and Terra (CV Aqua R 2 results for min 0.966, mean 0.986, and max 0.967; CV Terra R 2 results for min 0.965, mean 0.987, and max 0.968). Our research shows that daily min, mean and max Ta can be reliably predicted using daily MODIS Ts data even across Israel, with high accuracy even for days without Ta or Ts data. These predictions can be used as three separate Ta exposures in epidemiology studies for better diurnal exposure assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Daily and 3-hourly variability in global fire emissions and consequences for atmospheric model predictions of carbon monoxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; Defries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.; Griffith, D. W. T.; Wunch, D.; Toon, G. C.; Sherlock, V.; Wennberg, P. O.

    2011-12-01

    Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We disaggregated monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003-2009 to a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) active fire observations. Daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of burning in savannas. These patterns were consistent with earlier field and modeling work characterizing fire behavior dynamics in different ecosystems. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES WF_ABBA active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top-down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from

  14. Daily and 3-hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; vanderWerf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.; hide

    2011-01-01

    Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We disaggregated monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003.2009 to a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ]derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) active fire observations. Daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of burning in savannas. These patterns were consistent with earlier field and modeling work characterizing fire behavior dynamics in different ecosystems. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES WF_ABBA active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top ]down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from

  15. Daily physical activity and its contribution to the health-related quality of life of ambulatory individuals with chronic stroke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rand Debbie

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Participation in daily physical activity (PA post-stroke has not previously been investigated as a possible explanatory variable of health-related quality of life (HRQL. The aims were 1 to determine the contribution of daily PA to the HRQL of individuals with chronic stroke and 2 to assess the relationship between the functional ability of these individuals to the amount of daily PA. Methods The amount of daily PA of forty adults with chronic stroke (mean age 66.5 ± 9.6 years was monitored using two measures. Accelerometers (Actical were worn on the hip for three consecutive days in conjunction with a self-report questionnaire [the PA Scale for Individuals with Physical Disabilities (PASIPD]. The daily physical activity was measured as the mean total accelerometer activity counts/day and the PASIPD scores as the metabolic equivalent (MET hr/day. HRQL was assessed by the Physical and Mental composite scores of the Medical Outcomes Study Short-Form 36 (SF-36 in addition to the functional ability of the participants. Correlation and regression analyses were performed. Results After controlling for the severity of the motor impairment, the amount of daily PA, as assessed by the PASIPD and accelerometers, was found to independently contribute to 10-12% of the variance of the Physical Composite Score of the SF-36. No significant relationship was found between PA and the Mental Composite Score of the SF-36.The functional ability of the participants was found to be correlated to the amount of daily PA (r = 0.33 - 0.67, p Conclusion The results suggest that daily PA is associated with better HRQL (as assessed by the Physical composite score of the SF-36 for people living with stroke. Daily PA should be encouraged to potentially increase HRQL. Accelerometers in conjunction with a self-report questionnaire may provide important measures of PA which can be monitored and modified, and potentially influence HRQL.

  16. Modelling daily sediment yield from a meso-scale catchment, a case study in SW Poland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keesstra, S. D.; Schoorl, J.; Temme, A. J. A. M.

    2009-07-01

    For management purposes it is important to be able to assess the sediment yield of a catchment. however, at this moment models designed for estimating sediment yield are only capable to give either very detailed storm-based information or year averages. The storm-based models require input data that are not available for most catchment. However, models that estimate yearly averages, ignore a lot of other detailed information, like daily discharge and precipitation data. There are currently no models available that model sediment yield on the temporal scale of one day and the spatial scale of a meso-scale catchment, without making use of very detailed input data. To fill this scientific and management gap, landscape evolution model LAPSUS has been adapted to model sediment yield on a daily basis. This model has the water balance as a base. To allow calibration with the discharge at the outlet, a subsurface flow module has been added to the model. (Author) 12 refs.

  17. Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan; Hanel, Martin

    2018-04-01

    The study compares characteristics of observed sub-daily precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic with those simulated by Hadley Centre Regional Model version 3 (HadRM3) and Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model version 4 (RCA4) regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalyses and examines diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation and their dependence on intensity and surface temperature. The observed warm-season (May-September) maxima of short-duration (1, 2 and 3 h) amounts show one diurnal peak in the afternoon, which is simulated reasonably well by RCA4, although the peak occurs too early in the model. HadRM3 provides an unrealistic diurnal cycle with a nighttime peak and an afternoon minimum coinciding with the observed maximum for all three ensemble members, which suggests that convection is not captured realistically. Distorted relationships of the diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation to daily maximum temperature in HadRM3 further evidence that underlying physical mechanisms are misrepresented in this RCM. Goodness-of-fit tests indicate that generalised extreme value distribution is an applicable model for both observed and RCM-simulated precipitation maxima. However, the RCMs are not able to capture the range of the shape parameter estimates of distributions of short-duration precipitation maxima realistically, leading to either too many (nearly all for HadRM3) or too few (RCA4) grid boxes in which the shape parameter corresponds to a heavy tail. This means that the distributions of maxima of sub-daily amounts are distorted in the RCM-simulated data and do not match reality well. Therefore, projected changes of sub-daily precipitation extremes in climate change scenarios based on RCMs not resolving convection need to be interpreted with caution.

  18. Stressor Diversity: Introduction and Empirical Integration into the Daily Stress Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koffer, Rachel E.; Ram, Nilam; Conroy, David E.; Pincus, Aaron L.; Almeida, David M.

    2016-01-01

    The present study examined if and how stressor diversity, the extent to which one’s stressor events are spread across multiple types of stressors, contributes to daily affective well-being through the adult life span. Stressor diversity was examined as a unique predictor of daily affect and as a moderator of stressor exposure and stressor reactivity effects. Analyses span two independent studies of daily stress: the National Study of Daily Experiences with N=2,022 adults, aged 33–85, assessed over T=8 days, and the Intraindividual Study of Affect, Health, and Interpersonal Behavior with N=150 adults, aged 18–89, assessed over T=63 days. Across both studies, older age was associated with less stressor diversity. Additionally, multivariate multilevel models indicated higher stressor diversity was linked with better affective well-being. Age, however, was not a consistent moderator of such associations. The combination of low stressor diversity and high stressor exposure is discussed as an operationalization of chronic stressors, and this combination was associated with particularly high negative affect and low positive affect. We believe further work will benefit from including both the frequency and diversity of stressor experiences in analyses in order to better characterize individuals’ stressor experiences. PMID:27294713

  19. Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan; Hanel, M.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 132, 1-2 (2018), s. 515-527 ISSN 0177-798X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : sub-daily precipitation * regional climate models * extremes * Czech Republic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 2.640, year: 2016 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-017-2102-0

  20. Hydrometeorological daily recharge assessment model (DREAM) for the Western Mountain Aquifer, Israel: Model application and effects of temporal patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffer, N. A.; Dafny, E.; Gvirtzman, H.; Navon, S.; Frumkin, A.; Morin, E.

    2010-05-01

    Recharge is a critical issue for water management. Recharge assessment and the factors affecting recharge are of scientific and practical importance. The purpose of this study was to develop a daily recharge assessment model (DREAM) on the basis of a water balance principle with input from conventional and generally available precipitation and evaporation data and demonstrate the application of this model to recharge estimation in the Western Mountain Aquifer (WMA) in Israel. The WMA (area 13,000 km2) is a karst aquifer that supplies 360-400 Mm3 yr-1 of freshwater, which constitutes 20% of Israel's freshwater and is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. DREAM was linked to a groundwater flow model (FEFLOW) to simulate monthly hydraulic heads and spring flows. The models were calibrated for 1987-2002 and validated for 2003-2007, yielding high agreement between calculated and measured values (R2 = 0.95; relative root-mean-square error = 4.8%; relative bias = 1.04). DREAM allows insights into the effect of intra-annual precipitation distribution factors on recharge. Although annual precipitation amount explains ˜70% of the variability in simulated recharge, analyses with DREAM indicate that the rainy season length is an important factor controlling recharge. Years with similar annual precipitation produce different recharge values as a result of temporal distribution throughout the rainy season. An experiment with a synthetic data set exhibits similar results, explaining ˜90% of the recharge variability. DREAM represents significant improvement over previous recharge estimation techniques in this region by providing near-real-time recharge estimates that can be used to predict the impact of climate variability on groundwater resources at high temporal and spatial resolution.

  1. Association among activities of daily living, instrumental activities of daily living and health-related quality of life in elderly Yi ethnic minority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ran, Lingyun; Jiang, Xiaodong; Li, Baogang; Kong, Hongqian; Du, Mengqi; Wang, Xiaolan; Yu, Hua; Liu, Qin

    2017-03-22

    The health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of the elderly population of Yi ethnic minority, which is the seventh largest nationality in China, has been rarely reported. This study was designed to explore the HRQoL of the elderly Yi ethnicity and association between their HRQOL and functional abilities. A total of 291 Yi ethnic residents were randomly recruited from 12 rural counties in Yunnan province and divided into different age groups. Local residents in Yunnan province and the elderly from Hangzhou were enrolled as controls. The MOS 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36), activities of daily living (ADL), instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) scales were utilized to evaluate the HRQoL and functional ability. One-way ANOVA was used to statistically compare the ADL and IADL among different age groups. The influential variables on HRQOL were analyzed by multiple linear regression analysis. Pearson correlation analysis was used to analyze the association among HRQoL, ADL and IADL. The HRQoL of the elderly Yi minority was significantly lower than those of local residents in Yunnan province and the elderly counterparts in Hangzhou. The IADL ability of the elderly Yi minority was low, whereas they could perform most items of ADL. ADL, IADL, and education level were positively associated with HRQoL, whereas age, chronic diseases, and the frequency of medication use were negatively correlated with HRQoL. The HRQoL and functional capacity of the elderly Yi ethnic minority were lower compared with their counterparts in Yunnan province and Hangzhou. The low level of IADL indicated that the elderly Yi participants had a high risk of cognitive impairment. Much attention should be diverted to influential factors of the HRQoL.

  2. The daily hour forecasting of the electrical energy production from renewable energy sources – a required condition for the operation of the new energy market model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalpachka, Gergana; Kalpachki, Georgi

    2011-01-01

    The report presented the new energy market model in Bulgaria and the main attention is directed to a daily hour forecasting of the electrical energy production from renewable energy sources. The need of development of a methodology and the development of the most precise methods for predicting is reviewed and some of the used methods at the moment are presented. An analysis of the problems related to the daily hour forecasting is done using data from the producers of electrical energy from renewable energy sources in the territory of western Bulgaria. Keywords: Renewable energy sources, daily hour forecasting, electrical energy

  3. Daily value-at-risk modeling and forecast evaluation: The realized volatility approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhen Yao Wong

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the main applications of conditional volatility modeling and forecasting of financial assets is the value-at-risk (VaR estimation that is used by financial institutions for reporting the daily capital in risk. It remains a question on whether realized volatility (RV models that incorporate the use of intraday data produce better VaR forecasts compared to methodologies that are based solely on daily returns. This study provides extensive comparison of out-of-sample volatility and VaR forecast performance on three equity market indices: S&P500, FTSE100, and DAX30 using 13 risk models that consist of 5 GARCH specifications, 4 ARFIMAX specifications and 4 HARX specifications. The out-of-sample volatility forecasts are evaluated by various loss functions and simple scoring procedures in order to identity the model that produces the overall best volatility forecasts. For VaR forecasts, the models are evaluated using a two-stage backtesting procedure where the models undergo unconditional and conditional coverage tests to eliminate underperforming models and the qualified models are then evaluated using the quadratic probability score (QPS function that is computed based on various VaR loss functions. The results showed that RV models outperform GARCH models for volatility forecasts, but a simple EGARCH model outperforms the rest models for most of the VaR forecasts. The results also indicated that capturing the asymmetric behavior of volatility dynamics is essential for accurate volatility and VaR forecasts. The findings of this study provide useful information for market risk regulation, financial risk management and further investigations such as extension to derivative markets and options pricing.

  4. Daily and Hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.; hide

    2011-01-01

    Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We distributed monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003-2009 on a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) active fire observations. We found that patterns of daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of bunting in savannas. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top-down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from multiple satellite sensors to improve daily emissions estimates.

  5. Empirical model for estimating daily erythemal UV radiation in the Central European region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hlavinka, P.; Trnka, M.; Semeradova, D.; Zalud, Z.; Eitzinger, J. [Mendel Univ., Brno (Czech Republic). Inst. of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology; Dubrovsky, M. [Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague (Czech Republic). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics; Weihs, P.; Simic, S. [Department of Water, Atmosphere and Environment, Vienna (Austria). Inst. of Meteorology; Blumthaler, M. [Medical Univ. of Innsbruck (Austria). Inst. of Medical Physics; Schreder, J. [CMS - Ing. Dr. Schreder GmbH, Kirchbichl (Austria)

    2007-04-15

    Because of its biological effects, erythemal ultraviolet (UV-ERY) radiation (280-400 nm) is a significant part of solar radiation spectrum. In this study a statistical model for estimating daily UV-ERY radiation values was developed. It is based on ground measurements conducted at eight Austrian stations (from 2000 to 2002). As inputs the model requires daily global radiation, daily extraterrestrial radiation, information about the column of total ozone in the atmosphere and the altitude of a selected station. Subsequently the performance of the model was verified by an independent data set originating from measurements in Austria and Czech Republic stations. The verification showed satisfactory performance of the model: the coefficient of determination (R2) varied from 0.97 to 0.99, the root mean square error (RMSE) varied from 9.3 % to 17.7 % and the mean bias error (MBE) varied from -2.5 % to 2.0 %. In addition, the results of the model at Hradec Kralove station were compared with equivalent UV-ERY data from the Solar Radiation Database (SoDa), which are available on the Internet. After successful verification, the model was implemented within the ArcInfo GIS framework in order to carry out a spatial assessment of a stratospheric ozone reduction episode. The event of July 2005 in the Czech Republic was used as a case study. On 30 July 2005 the total ozone amount dropped 12.5 % below the long-term mean, which led to UV-ERY radiation increment ranging from 214 to 391 J.m{sup -2}.day{sup -1}. (orig.)

  6. Improved daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grimm, J.W. [Institutes of the Environment, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Lynch, J.A. [School of Forest Resources, Pennsylvania State University, 311 Forest Resources Lab, University Park, PA 16802 (United States)]. E-mail: jal@psu.edu

    2005-06-15

    Daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models were developed for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (USA) using a linear least-squares regression approach and precipitation chemistry data from 29 National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) sites. Only weekly samples that comprised a single precipitation event were used in model development. The most significant variables in both ammonium and nitrate models included: precipitation volume, the number of days since the last event, a measure of seasonality, latitude, and the proportion of land within 8 km covered by forest or devoted to industry and transportation. Additional variables included in the nitrate model were the proportion of land within 0.8 km covered by water and/or forest. Local and regional ammonia and nitrogen oxide emissions were not as well correlated as land cover. Modeled concentrations compared very well with event chemistry data collected at six NADP/AirMoN sites within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Wet deposition estimates were also consistent with observed deposition at selected sites. Accurately describing the spatial distribution of precipitation volume throughout the watershed is important in providing critical estimates of wet-fall deposition of ammonium and nitrate. - A linear least-squares regression approach was used to develop daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

  7. A Comparison of Satellite Based, Modeled Derived Daily Solar Radiation Data with Observed Data for the Continental US

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Jeffrey W.; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Wilkens, Paul W.; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Hoell, James M.

    2010-01-01

    Many applications of simulation models and related decision support tools for agriculture and natural resource management require daily meteorological data as inputs. Availability and quality of such data, however, often constrain research and decision support activities that require use of these tools. Daily solar radiation (SRAD) data are especially problematic because the instruments require electronic integrators, accurate sensors are expensive, and calibration standards are seldom available. The Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA/POWER; power.larc.nasa.gov) project at the NASA Langley Research Center estimates daily solar radiation based on data that are derived from satellite observations of outgoing visible radiances and atmospheric parameters based upon satellite observations and assimilation models. The solar data are available for a global 1 degree x 1 degree coordinate grid. SRAD can also be estimated based on attenuation of extraterrestrial radiation (Q0) using daily temperature and rainfall data to estimate the optical thickness of the atmosphere. This study compares daily solar radiation data from NASA/POWER (SRADNP) with instrument readings from 295 stations (SRADOB), as well as with values that were estimated with the WGENR solar generator. WGENR was used both with daily temperature and precipitation records from the stations reporting solar data and records from the NOAA Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), thus providing two additional sources of solar data, SRADWG and SRADCO. Values of SRADNP for different grid cells consistently showed higher correlations (typically 0.85 to 0.95) with SRADOB data than did SRADWG or SRADCO for sites within the corresponding cells. Mean values of SRADOB, SRADWG and SRADNP for sites within a grid cell usually were within 1 MJm-2d-1 of each other, but NASA/POWER values averaged 1.1 MJm-2d-1 lower than SRADOB. The magnitude of this bias was greater at lower latitudes and during summer months and may be at

  8. Assessment of memory function: the relation between daily observation and neuropsychological test performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Persoon, J.W.B.; Kessels, R.P.C.; Banningh, L.J.; Verkoelen, J.; Achterberg, T. van; Olde Rikkert, M.G.M.

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to explore the value of a daily observation scale in the assessment of patients' memory function by nurses on a geriatric ward. METHODS: An observational study of 50 geriatric inpatients was carried out. The relationship between the memory items of the Nurses'

  9. Assessment of memory function: the relation between daily observation and neuropsychological test performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Persoon, A.; Kessels, R.P.C.; Joosten-Weyn Banningh, L.W.A.; Verkoelen, J.; Olde Rikkert, M.G.M.

    2011-01-01

    Background: The aim of the study was to explore the value of a daily observation scale in the assessment of patients' memory function by nurses on a geriatric ward. Methods: An observational study of 50 geriatric inpatients was carried out. The relationship between the memory items of the Nurses'

  10. Objectively measured daily physical activity related to aerobic fitness in young children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, Magnus; Bugge, Anna; Hermansen, Bianca

    2010-01-01

    , light, moderate, moderate-to-vigorous, and vigorous activity per day were calculated. Mean counts per minute were considered to reflect total physical activity. Pearson correlation coefficients indicated a weak relationship between daily physical activity variables and VO(2peak) in boys (r = 0...

  11. Genetic Analysis of Daily Maximum Milking Speed by a Random Walk Model in Dairy Cows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karacaören, Burak; Janss, Luc; Kadarmideen, Haja

    Data were obtained from dairy cows stationed at research farm ETH Zurich for maximum milking speed. The main aims of this paper are a) to evaluate if the Wood curve is suitable to model mean lactation curve b) to predict longitudinal breeding values by random regression and random walk models...... of maximum milking speed. Wood curve did not provide a good fit to the data set. Quadratic random regressions gave better predictions compared with the random walk model. However random walk model does not need to be evaluated for different orders of regression coefficients. In addition with the Kalman...... filter applications: random walk model could give online prediction of breeding values. Hence without waiting for whole lactation records, genetic evaluation could be made when the daily or monthly data is available...

  12. The effect of reproductive performance on the dairy cattle herd value assessed by integrating a daily dynamic programming model with a daily Markov chain model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalantari, A S; Cabrera, V E

    2012-10-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the effect of reproductive performance on dairy cattle herd value. Herd value was defined as the herd's average retention payoff (RPO). Individual cow RPO is the expected profit from keeping the cow compared with immediate replacement. First, a daily dynamic programming model was developed to calculate the RPO of all cow states in a herd. Second, a daily Markov chain model was applied to estimate the herd demographics. Finally, the herd value was calculated by aggregating the RPO of all cows in the herd. Cow states were described by 5 milk yield classes (76, 88, 100, 112, and 124% with respect to the average), 9 lactations, 750 d in milk, and 282 d in pregnancy. Five different reproductive programs were studied (RP1 to RP5). Reproductive program 1 used 100% timed artificial insemination (TAI; 42% conception rate for first TAI and 30% for second and later services) and the other programs combined TAI with estrus detection. The proportion of cows receiving artificial insemination after estrus detection ranged from 30 to 80%, and conception rate ranged from 25 to 35%. These 5 reproductive programs were categorized according to their 21-d pregnancy rate (21-d PR), which is an indication of the rate that eligible cows become pregnant every 21 d. The 21-d PR was 17% for RP1, 14% for RP2, 16% for RP3, 18% for RP4, and 20% for RP5. Results showed a positive relationship between 21-d PR and herd value. The most extreme herd value difference between 2 reproductive programs was $77/cow per yr for average milk yield (RP5 - RP2), $13/cow per yr for lowest milk yield (RP5 - RP1), and $160/cow per yr for highest milk yield (RP5 - RP2). Reproductive programs were ranked based on their calculated herd value. With the exception of the best reproductive program (RP5), all other programs showed some level of ranking change according to milk yield. The most dramatic ranking change was observed in RP1, which moved from being the worst ranked

  13. Development of models to inform a national Daily Landslide Hazard Assessment for Great Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dijkstra, Tom A.; Reeves, Helen J.; Dashwood, Claire; Pennington, Catherine; Freeborough, Katy; Mackay, Jonathan D.; Uhlemann, Sebastian S.; Chambers, Jonathan E.; Wilkinson, Paul B.

    2015-04-01

    were combined with records of observed landslide events to establish which antecedent effective precipitation (AEP) signatures of different duration could be used as a pragmatic proxy for the occurrence of landslides. It was established that 1, 7, and 90 days AEP provided the most significant correlations and these were used to calculate the probability of at least one landslide occurring. The method was then extended over the period 2006 to 2014 and the results evaluated against observed occurrences. It is recognised that AEP is a relatively poor proxy for simulating effective stress conditions along potential slip surfaces. However, the temporal pattern of landslide probability compares well to the observed occurrences and provides a potential benefit to assist with the DLHA. Further work is continuing to fine-tune the model for landslide type, better spatial resolution of effective precipitation input and cross-reference to models that capture changes in water balance and conditions along slip surfaces. The latter is facilitated by intensive research at several field laboratories, such as the Hollin Hill site in Yorkshire, England. At this site, a decade of activity has generated a broad range of research and a wealth of data. This paper reports on one example of recent work; the characterisation of near surface hydrology using infiltration experiments where hydrological pathways are captured, among others, by electrical resistivity tomography. This research, which has further developed our understanding of soil moisture movement in a heterogeneous landslide complex, has highlighted the importance of establishing detailed ground models to enable determination of landslide potential at high resolution. In turn, the knowledge gained through this research is used to enhance the expertise for the daily landslide hazard assessments at a national scale.

  14. LiveOcean: A Daily Forecast Model of Ocean Acidification for Shellfish Growers

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacCready, P.; Siedlecki, S. A.; McCabe, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    The coastal estuaries of the NE Pacific host a highly productive shellfish industry, but in the past decade they have suffered from many years in which no natural set of oysters occurred. It appears that coastal waters with low Aragonite saturation state may be the cause. This "acidified" water is the result of (i) upwelling of NE Pacific water from near the shelf break that is already low in pH, and (ii) further acidification of that water by productivity and remineralization on the shelf, and (iii) increasing atmospheric CO2. As part of a coordinated research response to this issue, we have developed the LiveOcean modeling system, which creates daily three-day forecasts of circulation and biogeochemical properties in Oregon-Washington-British Columbia coastal and estuarine waters. The system includes realistic tides, atmospheric forcing (from a regional WRF model), ocean boundary conditions (from HYCOM), and rivers (from USGS and Environment Canada). The model is also used for Harmful Algal Bloom prediction. There has been extensive validation of hindcast runs for currents and hydrography, and more limited validation of biogeochemical variables. Model results are pushed daily to the cloud, and made available to the public through the NANOOS Visualization System (NVS). NVS also includes automated model-data comparisons with real-time NDBC and OOI moorings. Future work will focus on optimizing the utility of this system for regional shellfish growers.

  15. NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model assimilating satellite chlorophyll data global daily VR2017 (NOBM_DAY) at GES DISC

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This is the assimilated daily data from NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM). The NOBM is a comprehensive, interactive ocean biogeochemical model coupled with a...

  16. Generating daily weather data for ecosystem modelling in the Congo River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petritsch, Richard; Pietsch, Stephan A.

    2010-05-01

    Daily weather data are an important constraint for diverse applications in ecosystem research. In particular, temperature and precipitation are the main drivers for forest ecosystem productivity. Mechanistic modelling theory heavily relies on daily values for minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, incident solar radiation and vapour pressure deficit. Although the number of climate measurement stations increased during the last centuries, there are still regions with limited climate data. For example, in the WMO database there are only 16 stations located in Gabon with daily weather measurements. Additionally, the available time series are heavily affected by measurement errors or missing values. In the WMO record for Gabon, on average every second day is missing. Monthly means are more robust and may be estimated over larger areas. Therefore, a good alternative is to interpolate monthly mean values using a sparse network of measurement stations, and based on these monthly data generate daily weather data with defined characteristics. The weather generator MarkSim was developed to produce climatological time series for crop modelling in the tropics. It provides daily values for maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and solar radiation. The monthly means can either be derived from the internal climate surfaces or prescribed as additional inputs. We compared the generated outputs observations from three climate stations in Gabon (Lastourville, Moanda and Mouilla) and found that maximum temperature and solar radiation were heavily overestimated during the long dry season. This is due to the internal dependency of the solar radiation estimates to precipitation. With no precipitation a cloudless sky is assumed and thus high incident solar radiation and a large diurnal temperature range. However, in reality it is cloudy in the Congo River Basin during the long dry season. Therefore, we applied a correction factor to solar radiation and temperature range

  17. Coupled daily streamflow and water temperature modelling in large river basins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. T. H. van Vliet

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Realistic estimates of daily streamflow and water temperature are required for effective management of water resources (e.g. for electricity and drinking water production and freshwater ecosystems. Although hydrological and process-based water temperature modelling approaches have been successfully applied to small catchments and short time periods, much less work has been done at large spatial and temporal scales. We present a physically based modelling framework for daily river discharge and water temperature simulations applicable to large river systems on a global scale. Model performance was tested globally at 1/2 × 1/2° spatial resolution and a daily time step for the period 1971–2000. We made specific evaluations on large river basins situated in different hydro-climatic zones and characterized by different anthropogenic impacts. Effects of anthropogenic heat discharges on simulated water temperatures were incorporated by using global gridded thermoelectric water use datasets and representing thermal discharges as point sources into the heat advection equation. This resulted in a significant increase in the quality of the water temperature simulations for thermally polluted basins (Rhine, Meuse, Danube and Mississippi. Due to large reservoirs in the Columbia which affect streamflow and thermal regimes, a reservoir routing model was used. This resulted in a significant improvement in the performance of the river discharge and water temperature modelling. Overall, realistic estimates were obtained at daily time step for both river discharge (median normalized BIAS = 0.3; normalized RMSE = 1.2; r = 0.76 and water temperature (median BIAS = −0.3 °C; RMSE = 2.8 °C; r = 0.91 for the entire validation period, with similar performance during warm, dry periods. Simulated water temperatures are sensitive to headwater temperature, depending on resolution and flow velocity. A high sensitivity of water temperature to river

  18. Daily and compulsive internet use and well-being in adolescence: a diathesis-stress model based on big five personality traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Aa, Niels; Overbeek, Geertjan; Engels, Rutger C M E; Scholte, Ron H J; Meerkerk, Gert-Jan; Van den Eijnden, Regina J J M

    2009-07-01

    This study examined the associations between adolescents' daily Internet use and low well-being (i.e., loneliness, low self-esteem, and depressive moods). We hypothesized that (a) linkages between high levels of daily Internet use and low well-being would be mediated by compulsive Internet use (CIU), and (b) that adolescents with low levels of agreeableness and emotional stability, and high levels of introversion would be more likely to develop CIU and lower well-being. Data were used from a sample of 7888 Dutch adolescents (11-21 years). Results from structural equation modeling analyses showed that daily Internet use was indirectly related to low well-being through CIU. In addition, daily Internet use was found to be more strongly related to CIU in introverted, low-agreeable, and emotionally less-stable adolescents. In turn, again, CIU was more strongly linked to loneliness in introverted, emotionally less-stable, and less agreeable adolescents.

  19. A comprehensive and systematic evaluation framework for a parsimonious daily rainfall field model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Bree; Thyer, Mark; Leonard, Michael; Lambert, Martin; Bates, Bryson

    2018-01-01

    The spatial distribution of rainfall has a significant influence on catchment dynamics and the generation of streamflow time series. However, there are few stochastic models that can simulate long sequences of stochastic rainfall fields continuously in time and space. To address this issue, the first goal of this study was to present a new parsimonious stochastic model that produces daily rainfall fields across the catchment. To achieve parsimony, the model used the latent-variable approach (because this parsimoniously simulates rainfall occurrences as well as amounts) and several other assumptions (including contemporaneous and separable spatiotemporal covariance structures). The second goal was to develop a comprehensive and systematic evaluation (CASE) framework to identify model strengths and weaknesses. This included quantitative performance categorisation that provided a systematic, succinct and transparent method to assess and summarise model performance over a range of statistics, sites, scales and seasons. The model is demonstrated using a case study from the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia. The model showed many strengths in reproducing the observed rainfall characteristics with the majority of statistics classified as either statistically indistinguishable from the observed or within 5% of the observed across the majority of sites and seasons. These included rainfall occurrences/amounts, wet/dry spell distributions, annual volumes/extremes and spatial patterns, which are important from a hydrological perspective. One of the few weaknesses of the model was that the total annual rainfall in dry years (lower 5%) was overestimated by 15% on average over all sites. An advantage of the CASE framework was that it was able to identify the source of this overestimation was poor representation of the annual variability of rainfall occurrences. Given the strengths of this continuous daily rainfall field model it has a range of potential hydrological

  20. Daily suspended sediment concentration simulation using ANN and neuro-fuzzy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajaee, Taher; Mirbagheri, Seyed Ahmad; Zounemat-Kermani, Mohammad; Nourani, Vahid

    2009-08-15

    In the present study, artificial neural networks (ANNs), neuro-fuzzy (NF), multi linear regression (MLR) and conventional sediment rating curve (SRC) models are considered for time series modeling of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in rivers. As for the artificial intelligence systems, feed forward back propagation (FFBP) method and Sugeno inference system are used for ANNs and NF models, respectively. The models are trained using daily river discharge and SSC data belonging to Little Black River and Salt River gauging stations in the USA. Obtained results demonstrate that ANN and NF models are in good agreement with the observed SSC values; while they depict better results than MLR and SRC methods. For example, in Little Black River station, the determination coefficient is 0.697 for NF model, while it is 0.457, 0.257 and 0.225 for ANN, MLR and SRC models, respectively. The values of cumulative suspended sediment load estimated by ANN and NF models are closer to the observed data than the other models. In general, the results illustrate that NF model presents better performance in SSC prediction in compression to other models.

  1. Body fat related to daily physical activity and insulin concentrations in non-diabetic children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, Magnus; Thorsson, Ola; Karlsson, Magnus K

    2007-01-01

    was measured by accelerometers. Time spent performing vigorous activity was estimated from accelerometer data by using established cut-off points. Dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) was used to quantify abdominal fat mass (AFM) and total body fat (TBF), also calculated as percentage of body weight (BF......This study explored the associations between body fat versus daily physical activity and insulin concentrations in non-diabetic young children in a cross-sectional study of 172 children (93 boys and 79 girls) aged 8-11 years. Blood samples were analysed for serum insulin and daily physical activity......%). Body fat distribution was calculated as AFM/TBF. Body fat distribution was independently linked to both insulin concentrations and physical activity. In contrast, TBF, AFM, and BF% were linked to physical activity only and not to insulin concentrations. In conclusion in this population of non...

  2. Diffuse radiation models and monthly-average, daily, diffuse data for a wide latitude range

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gopinathan, K.K.; Soler, A.

    1995-01-01

    Several years of measured data on global and diffuse radiation and sunshine duration for 40 widely spread locations in the latitude range 36° S to 60° N are used to develop and test models for estimating monthly-mean, daily, diffuse radiation on horizontal surfaces. Applicability of the clearness-index (K) and sunshine fraction (SSO) models for diffuse estimation and the effect of combining several variables into a single multilinear equation are tested. Correlations connecting the diffuse to global fraction (HdH) with K and SSO predict Hd values more accurately than their separate use. Among clearness-index and sunshine-fraction models, SSO models are found to have better accuracy if correlations are developed for wide latitude ranges. By including a term for declinations in the correlation, the accuracy of the estimated data can be marginally improved. The addition of latitude to the equation does not help to improve the accuracy further. (author)

  3. Evaluation of disabilities and activities of daily living of war-related bilateral lower extremity amputees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimzadeh, Mohammad H; Moradi, Ali; Bozorgnia, Shahram; Hallaj-Moghaddam, Mohammad

    2016-02-01

    Long-term consequences and the activities of daily living of bilateral lower limb amputation are not well documented. The aims of our study were to identify the long-term effects of bilateral lower extremity amputations on daily activities and understand how these amputees cope with their mobility assistive devices. Cross-sectional study. A total of 291 veterans with war bilateral lower limb amputations accepted to participate in a cross-sectional study. The average of follow-up was 25.4 years. A total of 152 amputees (54%) were involved in sports averagely 6.7 h per week. Bilateral amputees walk 10 m by the average of 15 ± 33 s, and they could walk continuously with their prosthesis 315 ± 295 m. They wore their prosthesis 6.8 ± 1.7 days per week and 7.9 ± 8.1 h per day. Of these, 6.7% of bilateral lower limb amputees needed help to wear their prosthesis; 88.3% of amputees used assistant device for walking. According to this survey, 73 (42%) prostheses in right limb were appropriate, 95 (54.6%) needed to be replaced, and 6 (3.4) needed to be fixed. On the left side, it was 76 (42%), 92 (52.0%), and 9 (5.1%), respectively. A total of 203 (74.9%) amputees reported limitations in at least one domain of the activities of daily living. The most common single item that affected the patients was ascending and descending stairs by the score of 66% of normal population. Veterans with bilateral lower limb amputations suffering from vast categories of daily problems. This study and its results confirm that bilateral lower limb amputees have major progressive disabilities in daily activities and their social performance. This should attract the attention of amputees' administrative organizations, social workers, health-care providers and caregiver providers. © The International Society for Prosthetics and Orthotics 2014.

  4. Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: Assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

    2009-04-01

    It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will

  5. Effect of Estimated Daily Global Solar Radiation Data on the Results of Crop Growth Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trnka, Miroslav; Eitzinger, Josef; Kapler, Pavel; Dubrovský, Martin; Semerádová, Daniela; Žalud, Zdeněk; Formayer, Herbert

    2007-10-16

    The results of previous studies have suggested that estimated daily globalradiation (R G ) values contain an error that could compromise the precision of subsequentcrop model applications. The following study presents a detailed site and spatial analysis ofthe R G error propagation in CERES and WOFOST crop growth models in Central Europeanclimate conditions. The research was conducted i) at the eight individual sites in Austria andthe Czech Republic where measured daily R G values were available as a reference, withseven methods for R G estimation being tested, and ii) for the agricultural areas of the CzechRepublic using daily data from 52 weather stations, with five R G estimation methods. In thelatter case the R G values estimated from the hours of sunshine using the ångström-Prescottformula were used as the standard method because of the lack of measured R G data. At thesite level we found that even the use of methods based on hours of sunshine, which showedthe lowest bias in R G estimates, led to a significant distortion of the key crop model outputs.When the ångström-Prescott method was used to estimate R G , for example, deviationsgreater than ±10 per cent in winter wheat and spring barley yields were noted in 5 to 6 percent of cases. The precision of the yield estimates and other crop model outputs was lowerwhen R G estimates based on the diurnal temperature range and cloud cover were used (mean bias error 2.0 to 4.1 per cent). The methods for estimating R G from the diurnal temperature range produced a wheat yield bias of more than 25 per cent in 12 to 16 per cent of the seasons. Such uncertainty in the crop model outputs makes the reliability of any seasonal yield forecasts or climate change impact assessments questionable if they are based on this type of data. The spatial assessment of the R G data uncertainty propagation over the winter wheat yields also revealed significant differences within the study area. We found that R G estimates based on

  6. Effect of Estimated Daily Global Solar Radiation Data on the Results of Crop Growth Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herbert Formayer

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available The results of previous studies have suggested that estimated daily globalradiation (RG values contain an error that could compromise the precision of subsequentcrop model applications. The following study presents a detailed site and spatial analysis ofthe RG error propagation in CERES and WOFOST crop growth models in Central Europeanclimate conditions. The research was conducted i at the eight individual sites in Austria andthe Czech Republic where measured daily RG values were available as a reference, withseven methods for RG estimation being tested, and ii for the agricultural areas of the CzechRepublic using daily data from 52 weather stations, with five RG estimation methods. In thelatter case the RG values estimated from the hours of sunshine using the ångström-Prescottformula were used as the standard method because of the lack of measured RG data. At thesite level we found that even the use of methods based on hours of sunshine, which showedthe lowest bias in RG estimates, led to a significant distortion of the key crop model outputs.When the ångström-Prescott method was used to estimate RG, for example, deviationsgreater than ±10 per cent in winter wheat and spring barley yields were noted in 5 to 6 percent of cases. The precision of the yield estimates and other crop model outputs was lowerwhen RG estimates based on the diurnal temperature range and cloud cover were used (mean bias error 2.0 to 4.1 per cent. The methods for estimating RG from the diurnal temperature range produced a wheat yield bias of more than 25 per cent in 12 to 16 per cent of the seasons. Such uncertainty in the crop model outputs makes the reliability of any seasonal yield forecasts or climate change impact assessments questionable if they are based on this type of data. The spatial assessment of the RG data uncertainty propagation over the winter wheat yields also revealed significant differences within the study area. We

  7. Modeling and forecasting foreign exchange daily closing prices with normal inverse Gaussian

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teneng, Dean

    2013-09-01

    We fit the normal inverse Gaussian(NIG) distribution to foreign exchange closing prices using the open software package R and select best models by Käärik and Umbleja (2011) proposed strategy. We observe that daily closing prices (12/04/2008 - 07/08/2012) of CHF/JPY, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, NZD/USD, QAR/CHF, QAR/EUR, SAR/CHF, SAR/EUR, TND/CHF and TND/EUR are excellent fits while EGP/EUR and EUR/GBP are good fits with a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test p-value of 0.062 and 0.08 respectively. It was impossible to estimate normal inverse Gaussian parameters (by maximum likelihood; computational problem) for JPY/CHF but CHF/JPY was an excellent fit. Thus, while the stochastic properties of an exchange rate can be completely modeled with a probability distribution in one direction, it may be impossible the other way around. We also demonstrate that foreign exchange closing prices can be forecasted with the normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) Lévy process, both in cases where the daily closing prices can and cannot be modeled by NIG distribution.

  8. Random regression models for daily feed intake in Danish Duroc pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strathe, Anders Bjerring; Mark, Thomas; Jensen, Just

    The objective of this study was to develop random regression models and estimate covariance functions for daily feed intake (DFI) in Danish Duroc pigs. A total of 476201 DFI records were available on 6542 Duroc boars between 70 to 160 days of age. The data originated from the National test station......-year-season, permanent, and animal genetic effects. The functional form was based on Legendre polynomials. A total of 64 models for random regressions were initially ranked by BIC to identify the approximate order for the Legendre polynomials using AI-REML. The parsimonious model included Legendre polynomials of 2nd....... Eigenvalues of the genetic covariance function showed that 33% of genetic variability was explained by the individual genetic curve of the pigs. This proportion was covered by linear (27%) and quadratic (6%) coefficients. Genetic eigenfunctions revealed that altering the shape of the feed intake curve...

  9. Ecological Interventionist Causal Models in Psychosis: Targeting Psychological Mechanisms in Daily Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reininghaus, Ulrich; Depp, Colin A; Myin-Germeys, Inez

    2016-03-01

    Integrated models of psychotic disorders have posited a number of putative psychological mechanisms that may contribute to the development of psychotic symptoms, but it is only recently that a modest amount of experience sampling research has provided evidence on their role in daily life, outside the research laboratory. A number of methodological challenges remain in evaluating specificity of potential causal links between a given psychological mechanism and psychosis outcomes in a systematic fashion, capitalizing on longitudinal data to investigate temporal ordering. In this article, we argue for testing ecological interventionist causal models that draw on real world and real-time delivered, ecological momentary interventions for generating evidence on several causal criteria (association, time order, and direction/sole plausibility) under real-world conditions, while maximizing generalizability to social contexts and experiences in heterogeneous populations. Specifically, this approach tests whether ecological momentary interventions can (1) modify a putative mechanism and (2) produce changes in the mechanism that lead to sustainable changes in intended psychosis outcomes in individuals' daily lives. Future research using this approach will provide translational evidence on the active ingredients of mobile health and in-person interventions that promote sustained effectiveness of ecological momentary interventions and, thereby, contribute to ongoing efforts that seek to enhance effectiveness of psychological interventions under real-world conditions. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Daily river flow prediction based on Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy Systems Modeling: A case of hydrological - meteorological measurements asymmetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bou-Fakhreddine, Bassam; Mougharbel, Imad; Faye, Alain; Abou Chakra, Sara; Pollet, Yann

    2018-03-01

    Accurate daily river flow forecast is essential in many applications of water resources such as hydropower operation, agricultural planning and flood control. This paper presents a forecasting approach to deal with a newly addressed situation where hydrological data exist for a period longer than that of meteorological data (measurements asymmetry). In fact, one of the potential solutions to resolve measurements asymmetry issue is data re-sampling. It is a matter of either considering only the hydrological data or the balanced part of the hydro-meteorological data set during the forecasting process. However, the main disadvantage is that we may lose potentially relevant information from the left-out data. In this research, the key output is a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy inference hybrid model that is implemented over the non re-sampled data. The introduced modeling approach must be capable of exploiting the available data efficiently with higher prediction efficiency relative to Constructive Fuzzy model trained over re-sampled data set. The study was applied to Litani River in the Bekaa Valley - Lebanon by using 4 years of rainfall and 24 years of river flow daily measurements. A Constructive Fuzzy System Model (C-FSM) and a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy System Model (TPC-FSM) are trained. Upon validating, the second model has shown a primarily competitive performance and accuracy with the ability to preserve a higher day-to-day variability for 1, 3 and 6 days ahead. In fact, for the longest lead period, the C-FSM and TPC-FSM were able of explaining respectively 84.6% and 86.5% of the actual river flow variation. Overall, the results indicate that TPC-FSM model has provided a better tool to capture extreme flows in the process of streamflow prediction.

  11. Proteasome activity related with the daily physical activity of COPD patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee KY

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Kang-Yun Lee,1,2,* Tzu-Tao Chen,1,* Ling-Ling Chiang,1,3 Hsiao-Chi Chuang,1,3 Po-Hao Feng,1,2 Wen-Te Liu,1–3 Kuan-Yuan Chen,1 Shu-Chuan Ho1,3 1Division of Pulmonary Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Shuang Ho Hospital, Taipei Medical University, New Taipei City, 2Division of Pulmonary Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, 3School of Respiratory Therapy, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan *These authors contributed equally to this work Background: COPD is a debilitating disease that affects patients’ daily lives. One’s daily physical activity (DPA decreases due to multifactorial causes, and this decrease is correlated with a poor prognosis in COPD patients. Muscle wasting may at least be partly due to increased activity of the ubiquitin proteasome pathway and apoptosis.Methods: This study investigated the relationships among DPA, circulating proteasome activity, and protein carbonyl in COPD patients and healthy subjects (HSs. This study included 57 participants (42 patients and 15 healthy subjects. Ambulatory DPA was measured using actigraphy, and oxygen saturation was measured with a pulse oximeter.Results: COPD patients had lower DPA, lower 6 min walking distance (6MWD, lower delta saturation pulse oxygenation (SpO2 during the 6MWT, and lower delta SpO2 during DPA than HSs. COPD patients had higher proteasome activity and protein carbonyl than HSs. Circulating proteasome activity was significantly negatively correlated with DPA (r=−0.568, P<0.05 in COPD patients, whereas delta SpO2 during the 6MWT was significantly positively correlated with proteasome activity (r=0.685, P<0.05 in HSs. Protein carbonyl was significantly negatively correlated with the body mass index (r=−0.318, P<0.05, mid-arm circumference (r=0.350, P<0.05, calf circumference (r=0.322, P<0.05, forced expiratory volume in the first second (r=−0.441, P<0

  12. Socio-demographic and lifestyle-related characteristics associated with self-reported any, daily and occasional smoking during pregnancy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Baron

    Full Text Available Smoking during pregnancy is a risk factor for various adverse birth outcomes. In order to develop effective interventions, insight is needed into the characteristics associated with pregnant women who smoke. Unknown is whether these characteristics differ for women who smoke daily and women who smoke occasionally. Our study sample, drawn from the DELIVER study (Sept 2009-March 2011, consisted of 6107 pregnant women in primary care in the Netherlands who were up to 34 weeks pregnant. The associations of thirteen socio-demographic or lifestyle-related characteristics with 'any smoking', 'daily smoking' and 'occasional smoking' during pregnancy were tested using multiple binary logistic regression with general estimating equations (GEE. Characteristics most strongly associated with any smoking were low education (OR 10.3; 95% confidence interval (CI 7.0-15.4, being of Turkish ethnicity (OR 3.9; 95%CI 2.3-6.7 and having no partner (OR 3.7; 95%CI 2.3-6.0. Women of Dutch ethnicity were three times more likely to smoke than those from Dutch-speaking Caribbean countries and non-religious women were much more likely to smoke than religious women. Low education was markedly more strongly associated with daily smoking than with occasional smoking (OR 20.3; 95%CI 13.2-31.3 versus OR 6.0; 95%CI 3.4-10.5. Daily smokers were more likely to be associated with other unfavorable lifestyle-related characteristics, such as not taking folic acid, being underweight, and having had an unplanned pregnancy. There is still much potential for health gain with respect to smoking during pregnancy in the Netherlands. Daily and occasional smokers appear to differ in characteristics, and therefore possibly require different interventions.

  13. DAILY STEM GROWTH PATTERN IN IRRIGATED APPLE ORCHARDS FROM ARGES COUNTY IN RELATION TO CLIMATE CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Chitu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In terms of climate change manifested in the last 30 years in Romania (1982-2011, average data for 29 localities and characterized by a significant increase in maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the summer months and increased rainfall deficit, fruit trees farm efficiency is becoming increasingly dependent on strict control of water management through irrigation systems. Thus, the maximum air temperatures experienced average growth trend per decade of 0.88°C, 0.82°C and 0.70°C in June, July and August, respectively, and minimum of 0.61°C, 0.67°C and 0.75°C, in the same months. In this context, ensuring continuous easily accessible soil water content to the root system of the trees, in correlation with plant consumption, has become the most widely used measure to mitigate the negative effects of rising temperatures and rainfall deficits. One of the most accurate methods of water stress early diagnosis and monitoring in a very short step of the fruit trees growth processes is the measurement of trunk diameter variations (SDV with electronic dendrometers. To highlight the advantages of applying the method to irrigated apple (Malus domestica Borkh. plantations from the southern Romania, we have organized two experiences with Redix and Braeburn cvs. grafted on M9 in 2009-2012 period. For measurements were used DEX 100 (Dynamax dendrometers and GP1 dataloggers (Delta-T Devices. It was found that all SDV-derived indices (maximum daily shrinkage (MDS, daily recovery (DR and daily growth (DG of the trees trunk between two successive days may be used for early diagnosis of water and temperature stress. DG was significantly negatively influenced by MDS in both cultivars and in all months of the year, except in September. The Redix cv. DG was inhibited only by the MDS values greater than 0.36 mm. DG is a much less sensitive indicator of water and heat trees stress than MDS. Emergence of water stress was highlighted by two indicators: soil

  14. [Circular relation between children's social power cognition and daily use of influence tactics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamada, Masafumi; Fuchigami, Katsuyoshi

    2010-08-01

    This study examines how children's social power cognitions about themselves and the collective efficacy of their classrooms affect their selection and use of influence tactics toward their classmates. The effect of daily usage of influence tactics by children on agents' perception of social power is also examined. The results of linear regression analysis indicate that children who see themselves as friendly holders of power deriving from the perception of affable friendships use both collaborative and coercive influence tactics. While the use of collaborative tactics encourages agents' friendly social power cognition, the use of coercive tactics only reinforces their coercive power cognition. In addition, it is suggested that the effect of social power over agents' use of influence tactics is moderated by the collective efficacy of their classroom.

  15. Modelling daily dissolved oxygen concentration using least square support vector machine, multivariate adaptive regression splines and M5 model tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heddam, Salim; Kisi, Ozgur

    2018-04-01

    In the present study, three types of artificial intelligence techniques, least square support vector machine (LSSVM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and M5 model tree (M5T) are applied for modeling daily dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration using several water quality variables as inputs. The DO concentration and water quality variables data from three stations operated by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) were used for developing the three models. The water quality data selected consisted of daily measured of water temperature (TE, °C), pH (std. unit), specific conductance (SC, μS/cm) and discharge (DI cfs), are used as inputs to the LSSVM, MARS and M5T models. The three models were applied for each station separately and compared to each other. According to the results obtained, it was found that: (i) the DO concentration could be successfully estimated using the three models and (ii) the best model among all others differs from one station to another.

  16. Environmental physiology: effects of energy-related pollutants on daily cycles of energy metabolism, motor activity, and thermoregulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sacher, G.A.; Rosenberg, R.S.; Duffy, P.H.; Obermeyer, W.; Russell, J.J.

    1979-01-01

    This section contains a summary of research on the effects of energy-related pollutants on daily cycles of energy metabolism, motor activity, and thermoregulation. So far, mice have been exposed to fast neutron-gamma radiation or to the chemical effluents of an atmospheric pressure experimental fluidized-bed combustor. The physiological parameters measured included: O 2 consumption; CO 2 production; motor activity; and deep body temperatures

  17. A Pareto-optimal moving average multigene genetic programming model for daily streamflow prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Kahya, Ercan

    2017-06-01

    Genetic programming (GP) is able to systematically explore alternative model structures of different accuracy and complexity from observed input and output data. The effectiveness of GP in hydrological system identification has been recognized in recent studies. However, selecting a parsimonious (accurate and simple) model from such alternatives still remains a question. This paper proposes a Pareto-optimal moving average multigene genetic programming (MA-MGGP) approach to develop a parsimonious model for single-station streamflow prediction. The three main components of the approach that take us from observed data to a validated model are: (1) data pre-processing, (2) system identification and (3) system simplification. The data pre-processing ingredient uses a simple moving average filter to diminish the lagged prediction effect of stand-alone data-driven models. The multigene ingredient of the model tends to identify the underlying nonlinear system with expressions simpler than classical monolithic GP and, eventually simplification component exploits Pareto front plot to select a parsimonious model through an interactive complexity-efficiency trade-off. The approach was tested using the daily streamflow records from a station on Senoz Stream, Turkey. Comparing to the efficiency results of stand-alone GP, MGGP, and conventional multi linear regression prediction models as benchmarks, the proposed Pareto-optimal MA-MGGP model put forward a parsimonious solution, which has a noteworthy importance of being applied in practice. In addition, the approach allows the user to enter human insight into the problem to examine evolved models and pick the best performing programs out for further analysis.

  18. Bayesian multinomial probit modeling of daily windows of susceptibility for maternal PM2.5 exposure and congenital heart defects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Past epidemiologic studies suggest maternal ambient air pollution exposure during critical periods of the pregnancy is associated with fetal development. We introduce a multinomial probit model that allows for the joint identification of susceptible daily periods during the pregn...

  19. MODIS/Terra+Aqua BRDF/Albedo Model Parameters Daily L3 Global 0.05Deg CMG V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MODIS MCD43C1 Version 6 Bidirectional reflectance distribution function and Albedo (BRDF/Albedo) Model Parameters data set is a 5600 meter daily 16-day product....

  20. MODIS/Terra+Aqua BRDF/Albedo Model Parameters Daily L3 Global - 500m V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MODIS MCD43A1 Version 6 Bidirectional reflectance distribution function and Albedo (BRDF/Albedo) Model Parameters data set is a 500 meter daily 16-day product....

  1. Daily rainfall-runoff modelling by neural networks in semi-arid zone ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This research work will allow checking efficiency of formal neural networks for flows' modelling of wadi Ouahrane's basin from rainfall-runoff relation which is non-linear. Two models of neural networks were optimized through supervised learning and compared in order to achieve this goal, the first model with input rain, and ...

  2. Development and evaluation of a stochastic daily rainfall model with long-term variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal Chowdhury, A. F. M.; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George; Kiem, Anthony S.; Parana Manage, Nadeeka

    2017-12-01

    The primary objective of this study is to develop a stochastic rainfall generation model that can match not only the short resolution (daily) variability but also the longer resolution (monthly to multiyear) variability of observed rainfall. This study has developed a Markov chain (MC) model, which uses a two-state MC process with two parameters (wet-to-wet and dry-to-dry transition probabilities) to simulate rainfall occurrence and a gamma distribution with two parameters (mean and standard deviation of wet day rainfall) to simulate wet day rainfall depths. Starting with the traditional MC-gamma model with deterministic parameters, this study has developed and assessed four other variants of the MC-gamma model with different parameterisations. The key finding is that if the parameters of the gamma distribution are randomly sampled each year from fitted distributions rather than fixed parameters with time, the variability of rainfall depths at both short and longer temporal resolutions can be preserved, while the variability of wet periods (i.e. number of wet days and mean length of wet spell) can be preserved by decadally varied MC parameters. This is a straightforward enhancement to the traditional simplest MC model and is both objective and parsimonious.

  3. A long range dependent model with nonlinear innovations for simulating daily river flows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Elek

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available We present the analysis aimed at the estimation of flood risks of Tisza River in Hungary on the basis of daily river discharge data registered in the last 100 years. The deseasonalised series has skewed and leptokurtic distribution and various methods suggest that it possesses substantial long memory. This motivates the attempt to fit a fractional ARIMA model with non-Gaussian innovations as a first step. Synthetic streamflow series can then be generated from the bootstrapped innovations. However, there remains a significant difference between the empirical and the synthetic density functions as well as the quantiles. This brings attention to the fact that the innovations are not independent, both their squares and absolute values are autocorrelated. Furthermore, the innovations display non-seasonal periods of high and low variances. This behaviour is characteristic to generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH models. However, when innovations are simulated as GARCH processes, the quantiles and extremes of the discharge series are heavily overestimated. Therefore we suggest to fit a smooth transition GARCH-process to the innovations. In a standard GARCH model the dependence of the variance on the lagged innovation is quadratic whereas in our proposed model it is a bounded function. While preserving long memory and eliminating the correlation from both the generating noise and from its square, the new model is superior to the previously mentioned ones in approximating the probability density, the high quantiles and the extremal behaviour of the empirical river flows.

  4. Improved daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, J W; Lynch, J A

    2005-06-01

    Daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models were developed for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (USA) using a linear least-squares regression approach and precipitation chemistry data from 29 National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) sites. Only weekly samples that comprised a single precipitation event were used in model development. The most significant variables in both ammonium and nitrate models included: precipitation volume, the number of days since the last event, a measure of seasonality, latitude, and the proportion of land within 8km covered by forest or devoted to industry and transportation. Additional variables included in the nitrate model were the proportion of land within 0.8km covered by water and/or forest. Local and regional ammonia and nitrogen oxide emissions were not as well correlated as land cover. Modeled concentrations compared very well with event chemistry data collected at six NADP/AirMoN sites within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Wet deposition estimates were also consistent with observed deposition at selected sites. Accurately describing the spatial distribution of precipitation volume throughout the watershed is important in providing critical estimates of wet-fall deposition of ammonium and nitrate.

  5. Temperature based daily incoming solar radiation modeling based on gene expression programming, neuro-fuzzy and neural network computing techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landeras, G.; López, J. J.; Kisi, O.; Shiri, J.

    2012-04-01

    The correct observation/estimation of surface incoming solar radiation (RS) is very important for many agricultural, meteorological and hydrological related applications. While most weather stations are provided with sensors for air temperature detection, the presence of sensors necessary for the detection of solar radiation is not so habitual and the data quality provided by them is sometimes poor. In these cases it is necessary to estimate this variable. Temperature based modeling procedures are reported in this study for estimating daily incoming solar radiation by using Gene Expression Programming (GEP) for the first time, and other artificial intelligence models such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Traditional temperature based solar radiation equations were also included in this study and compared with artificial intelligence based approaches. Root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) RMSE-based skill score (SSRMSE), MAE-based skill score (SSMAE) and r2 criterion of Nash and Sutcliffe criteria were used to assess the models' performances. An ANN (a four-input multilayer perceptron with ten neurons in the hidden layer) presented the best performance among the studied models (2.93 MJ m-2 d-1 of RMSE). A four-input ANFIS model revealed as an interesting alternative to ANNs (3.14 MJ m-2 d-1 of RMSE). Very limited number of studies has been done on estimation of solar radiation based on ANFIS, and the present one demonstrated the ability of ANFIS to model solar radiation based on temperatures and extraterrestrial radiation. By the way this study demonstrated, for the first time, the ability of GEP models to model solar radiation based on daily atmospheric variables. Despite the accuracy of GEP models was slightly lower than the ANFIS and ANN models the genetic programming models (i.e., GEP) are superior to other artificial intelligence models in giving a simple explicit equation for the

  6. Diffusion model of radon from the water-exposed-to-air during daily use of water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhai Pengji; Li Chunjiang; Wang Baoyi

    2003-01-01

    Passive time-integrating 222 Rn plastic monitors and SY-1 CR-39 were used for radon measurement. The effect of water-exposed-to-air during daily use of water (in the bathroom, toilet and kitchen) on indoor radon concentration was surveyed for some families situated in Zhongguancun, Beijing. It is shown that the unusual quantities of radon could be separated out and go into the surrounding air during normal use of water, and especially in winter the radon concentration near the tap in the kitchen is about twice as much as the other place and the concentration in the bathroom is 3-4 times higher than that in changing-room. A diffusion model was set up and the diffusion coefficients from water in the toilet, kitchen and bathroom were calculated to be 6.597 x 10 -9 , 5.934 x 10 -9 and 3.560 x 10 -9 m 2 /s, respectively

  7. Probabilistic daily ILI syndromic surveillance with a spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ta-Chien Chan

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: For daily syndromic surveillance to be effective, an efficient and sensible algorithm would be expected to detect aberrations in influenza illness, and alert public health workers prior to any impending epidemic. This detection or alert surely contains uncertainty, and thus should be evaluated with a proper probabilistic measure. However, traditional monitoring mechanisms simply provide a binary alert, failing to adequately address this uncertainty. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Based on the Bayesian posterior probability of influenza-like illness (ILI visits, the intensity of outbreak can be directly assessed. The numbers of daily emergency room ILI visits at five community hospitals in Taipei City during 2006-2007 were collected and fitted with a Bayesian hierarchical model containing meteorological factors such as temperature and vapor pressure, spatial interaction with conditional autoregressive structure, weekend and holiday effects, seasonality factors, and previous ILI visits. The proposed algorithm recommends an alert for action if the posterior probability is larger than 70%. External data from January to February of 2008 were retained for validation. The decision rule detects successfully the peak in the validation period. When comparing the posterior probability evaluation with the modified Cusum method, results show that the proposed method is able to detect the signals 1-2 days prior to the rise of ILI visits. CONCLUSIONS: This Bayesian hierarchical model not only constitutes a dynamic surveillance system but also constructs a stochastic evaluation of the need to call for alert. The monitoring mechanism provides earlier detection as well as a complementary tool for current surveillance programs.

  8. Cognitive benefits of last night's sleep: daily variations in children's sleep behavior are related to working memory fluctuations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Könen, Tanja; Dirk, Judith; Schmiedek, Florian

    2015-02-01

    Recent studies have suggested substantial fluctuations of cognitive performance in adults both across and within days, but very little is known about such fluctuations in children. Children's sleep behavior might have an important influence on their daily cognitive resources, but so far this has not been investigated in terms of naturally occurring within-person variations in children's everyday lives. In an ambulatory assessment study, 110 elementary school children (8-11 years old) completed sleep items and working memory tasks on smartphones several times per day in school and at home for 4 weeks. Parents provided general information about the children and their sleep habits. We identified substantial fluctuations in the children's daily cognitive performance, self-reported nightly sleep quality, time in bed, and daytime tiredness. All three facets were predictive of performance fluctuations in children's school and daily life. Sleep quality and time in bed were predictive of performance in the morning, and afternoon performance was related to current tiredness. The children with a lower average performance level showed a higher within-person coupling between morning performance and sleep quality. Our findings contribute important insights regarding a potential source of performance fluctuations in children. The effect of varying cognitive resources should be investigated further because it might impact children's daily social, emotional, and learning-related functioning. Theories about children's cognitive and educational development should consider fluctuations on micro-longitudinal scales (e.g., day-to-day) to identify possible mechanisms behind long-term changes. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  9. A cross-cultural study of relationships between daily social interaction and the five-factor model of personality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nezlek, John B; Schütz, Astrid; Schröder-Abé, Michela; Smith, C Veronica

    2011-08-01

    Two studies, one in the United States (N = 130) and another in Germany (N = 100), examined relationships between daily social interaction and the traits of the Five-Factor Model. In both studies, student participants described their social interactions for 2 weeks using the Rochester Interaction Record. In both countries, Agreeableness and Conscientiousness were positively related to reactions to social interaction, whereas Neuroticism was unrelated to reactions to interactions. In the United States, Extraversion and Openness were positively related to reactions to interactions, whereas these factors were not related to reactions to interactions in Germany. In the United States, Extraversion was positively related to how socially active participants were, whereas none of the FFM traits was related to amount of social interaction in the German sample. In both countries, Extraversion was positively related to percent of interactions involving friends. The results highlight the importance of taking into account the sociocultural milieus within which personality unfolds. © 2011 The Authors. Journal Compilation © 2011, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Analysis and modelling of spatio-temporal properties of daily rainfall over the Danube basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serinaldi, F.; Kilsby, C. G.

    2012-04-01

    Central and Eastern Europe are prone to severe floods due to heavy rainfall that cause societal and economic damages, ranging from agriculture to water resources, from the insurance/reinsurance sector to the energy industry. To improve the flood risk analysis, a better characterisation and modelling of the rainfall patterns over this area, which involves the Danube river watershed, is strategically important. In this study, we analyse the spatio-temporal properties of a large data set of daily rainfall time series from 15 countries in the Central Eastern Europe through different lagged and non-lagged indices of associations that quantify both the overall dependence and extreme dependence of pairwise observations. We also show that these measures are linked to each other and can be written in a unique and coherent notation within the copula framework. Moreover, the lagged version of these measures allows exploring some important spatio-temporal properties of the rainfall fields. The exploratory analysis is complemented by the preliminary results of a spatio-temporal rainfall simulation performed via a compound model based upon the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) and meta-elliptical multivariate distributions.

  11. The impact of menstrual cycle-related physical symptoms on daily activities and psychological wellness among adolescent girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Iersel, Kirsten C; Kiesner, Jeff; Pastore, Massimiliano; Scholte, Ron H J

    2016-06-01

    Associations between perimenstrual physical and psychological symptoms have not been adequately studied among adolescent girls. The purpose of the present study was to test a mediation hypothesis postulating that perimenstrual disengagement from daily activities would mediate the association between physical symptoms and psychological symptoms. A non-clinical sample of N = 208 Italian adolescent girls (age M = 16.68 years) completed a 95-item online retrospective questionnaire regarding perimenstrual symptoms, and how these symptoms affect their daily activities. Structural Equation Modeling was used to test the mediation hypothesis. Results showed that physical and psychological symptoms were strongly associated. More importantly, results supported the hypothesis that perimenstrual disengagement from daily activities mediates the association between physical symptoms and psychological symptoms, but only for depressed mood and cognitive symptoms. This study provides support for a novel theoretical framework linking diverse aspects of menstrual cycle change. Longitudinal research is needed to replicate these findings. Copyright © 2016 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Crop model sensitivity to the estimated daily global solar radiation data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Kapler

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The results of the previous studies have suggested that the estimated RG values are loaded with an error, which might compromise the precision of the subsequent crop model applications. Therefore a detailed analysis of the error propagation was made using two crop models i.e. CERES-Barley and CERES-Wheat. Database of meteorological data originating from 8 stations in Austria and Czech Republic was used in order to carry out the analysis. It has been found that even application of the method based on sunshine duration that yield the lowest bias in RG estimates significantly influences number of key crop model outputs. It has been also noted that in 5–6 seasons out of 100 cases the deviation greater than ±10 % is to be expected whilst the occurrence of ±25% could not be also ruled out. The precision of the yield estimates and other crop model outputs is lower then expected but still acceptable for most application with mean bias error in range of 2.0–4.1% when estimates based on the diurnal temperature range and cloud cover are used. In this case yield deviations over ±10% occurred in about 20% cases (depending on the crop whilst the probability of significant yield departure (±25% doubled of that found for the previous method. The methods based on the diurnal temperature range and daily precipitation sum showed an increase of the systematic bias of yield of winter wheat and considerably higher number of seasons with yield departures over ±25%. Utilisation of the methods based on the diurnal temperature range only for the purposes of seasonal yield forecasting or climate change impact assessment is questionable as the probability of significant yield departure is very high (as well as the systematic error. These findings should act as an incentive to the further research aimed at development of more precise and widely applicable methods of estimating daily RG based more on the underlying physical principles and/or remote sensing approach

  13. Daily Intake of Magnesium and its Relation to Urinary Excretion in Korean Healthy Adults Consuming Self-Selected Diets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Mi-Kyeong; Weaver, Connie M

    2017-03-01

    Magnesium (Mg) is an essential nutrient as a structural constituent of bone and regulator of >300 enzymes. However, studies on intake and urinary excretion of Mg are limited. The purpose of this study was to evaluate Mg intake and its relation to 24-h urinary excretion in healthy adults. Anthropometric measurements and dietary intake by the 24-h recall method were conducted in 80 adults aged 21-69 (average 44.3) years. Urine was collected for 24 h on the day following the dietary survey. Dietary assessment and 24-h urine collection were repeated 3 days later. Daily intake and urinary excretion of Mg were analyzed using Can-Pro and ICP-OES, respectively. The statistical analysis was conducted using SAS program. Mg intake of the subjects was 319 ± 129 mg/day for men and 277 ± 94 mg/day for women and the proportion of subjects who did not meet the estimated average requirement was 50 and 67.5 % for men and women, respectively. Urinary Mg excretion was 30.3 % of the daily Mg intake. Urinary Mg excretion was not significantly correlated with the daily Mg intake. Korean adults are not meeting the recommended intake of Mg, but its urinary excretion suggests homeostasis is not compromised.

  14. Simulation of daily streamflow for nine river basins in eastern Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haj, Adel E.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Hutchinson, Kasey J.

    2015-10-14

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for nine river basins in eastern Iowa that drain into the Mississippi River. The models are part of a suite of methods for estimating daily streamflow at ungaged sites. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed- parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration and validation periods used in each basin mostly were October 1, 2002, through September 30, 2012, but differed depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations.

  15. A Comparison of SWAT and ANN Models for Daily Runoff Simulation in Different Climatic Zones of Peninsular Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Jimeno-Sáez

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Streamflow data are of prime importance to water-resources planning and management, and the accuracy of their estimation is very important for decision making. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT and Artificial Neural Network (ANN models have been evaluated and compared to find a method to improve streamflow estimation. For a more complete evaluation, the accuracy and ability of these streamflow estimation models was also established separately based on their performance during different periods of flows using regional flow duration curves (FDCs. Specifically, the FDCs were divided into five sectors: very low, low, medium, high and very high flow. This segmentation of flow allows analysis of the model performance for every important discharge event precisely. In this study, the models were applied in two catchments in Peninsular Spain with contrasting climatic conditions: Atlantic and Mediterranean climates. The results indicate that SWAT and ANNs were generally good tools in daily streamflow modelling. However, SWAT was found to be more successful in relation to better simulation of lower flows, while ANNs were superior at estimating higher flows in all cases.

  16. Oral temperatures of the elderly in nursing homes in summer and winter in relation to activities of daily living

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, K.; Tanaka, Masatoshi; Motohashi, Yutaka; Maeda, Akira

    This study was conducted to clarify the seasonal difference in body temperature in summer and winter, and to document the thermal environment of the elderly living in nursing homes. The subjects were 57 healthy elderly people aged >=63 years living in two nursing homes in Japan. One of the homes was characterized by subjects with low levels of activities of daily living (ADL). Oral temperatures were measured in the morning and afternoon, with simultaneous recording of ambient temperature and relative humidity. Oral temperatures in summer were higher than in winter, with statistically significant differences (Pchanges in ambient temperature.

  17. A note concerning the proper choice for Markov model order for daily precipitation in the humid tropics: a case study in Costa Rica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Michael; Waylen, Peter

    2000-11-01

    The use of chain-dependent hydroclimatological models (sometimes referred to as combined models or two-part models) in analysing daily precipitation requires that rainfall be modelled using both occurrence and intensity statistics. Markov processes in the context of precipitation climatology have been studied in such regions as monsoonal Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and South America. Many studies have indicated that the use of a first-order Markov model is often adequate when describing daily precipitation occurrences, particularly when working in temperate regions, but relatively little work has been done in the humid tropics regarding proper Markov model order, particularly in the western hemisphere. This research examines the occurrence characteristics of Costa Rican daily precipitation by comparing the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria (AIC and BIC) for three long-term meteorological stations. It is found that the most parsimonious models generally are those of first order (winter) or zero order (summer). Overall, the BIC yields less ambiguous results than the AIC, and thus, a higher level of model confidence is achieved when using the BIC as the model-order selection criteria.

  18. Models for S&P500 Dynamics: Evidence from Realized Volatility, Daily Returns, and Option Prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Mimouni, Karim

    Most recent empirical option valuation studies build on the affine square root (SQR) stochastic volatility model. The SQR model is a convenient choice, because it yields closed-form solutions for option prices. However, relatively little is known about the resulting biases. We investigate...... diffusion for variance which we refer to as the VAR model. This model captures the stylized facts in realized volatilities, it performs well in fitting various samples of index returns, and it has the lowest option implied volatility mean squared errors in- and out-of-sample....

  19. Sandwich consumption in relation to daily dietary intake and diet quality among US adults, 2003-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, R; Andrade, F; Grigsby-Toussaint, D

    2016-11-01

    About one half of the US adult population consumed one or more sandwiches on any given day. Sandwich consumption may profoundly influence people's calorie intake and diet quality. However, few studies have investigated the nutritional impact of sandwich consumption at the national level. We examined sandwich consumption in relation to daily dietary intake and diet quality among US adults. Retrospective data analysis. Nationally representative sample consisting of 27,075 adults 18 years of age and above came from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2003-2012 waves. Sandwich consumption was identified based on the What We Eat in America Food Category and the NHANES diet combination code. First-difference estimator addressed confounding bias from time-invariant unobservables (e.g. eating habits, taste preferences) by using within-individual variations in sandwich consumption between two non-consecutive 24-h dietary recalls. During 2003-2012, approximately 53.2% of US adults consumed sandwiches on any given day. Among sandwich consumers, nearly a quarter of daily total calorie intake and about a third of total fat, saturated fat, cholesterol, and sodium intake came from sandwich consumption. Men, non-Hispanic whites, young and middle-aged adults, people with higher income, and overweight/obese adults were more likely to consume sandwiches. Among those who consumed sandwiches on either but not both of the two dietary recall days, in comparison to no sandwich consumption, sandwich consumption on a dietary recall day was associated with an increase in daily intake of total energy by 98.7 kcal, total fat 6.8 g, and sodium 267.9 mg (P-value groups-sandwich consumption was associated with an increase in daily intake of sugar by 3.0 g (P-value < 0.01) and saturated fat 2.5 g (P-value < 0.001), a decrease in daily intake of vegetables by 8.4 g (P-value < 0.01), fruit 4.5 g (P-value < 0.05), and fibre 0.8 g (P-value < 0.001), and a

  20. Regularity of daily life in relation to personality, age, gender, sleep quality and circadian rhythms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monk, T. H.; Petrie, S. R.; Hayes, A. J.; Kupfer, D. J.

    1994-01-01

    A diary-like instrument to measure lifestyle regularity (the 'Social Rhythm Metric'-SRM) was given to 96 subjects (48 women, 48 men), 39 of whom repeated the study after at least one year, with additional objective measures of rest/activity. Lifestyle regularity as measured by the SRM related to age, morningness, subjective sleep quality and time-of-day variations in alertness, but not to gender, extroversion or neuroticism. Statistically significant test-retest correlations of about 0.4 emerged for SRM scores over the 12-30 month delay. Diary-based estimates of bedtime and waketime appeared fairly reliable. In a further study of healthy young men, 4 high SRM scorers ('regular') had a deeper nocturnal body temperature trough than 5 low SRM scorers ('irregular'), suggesting a better functioning circadian system in the 'regular' group.

  1. Difference in the relation between daily mortality and air pollution among elderly and all-ages populations in southwestern France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Filleul, Laurent; Le Tertre, A.L.; Baldi, Isabelle; Tessier, J.-F.

    2004-01-01

    Numerous time series studies around the world have reported an association between mortality and particulate air pollution. We investigated the distribution over time of effect of air pollution on short-term mortality among subjects aged 65 years and older and of all ages in Bordeaux, France. Statistical analysis was based on generalized additive models using either loess or penalized spline smoothing. Our study found a significant positive association between air pollution and all nonaccidental mortality and specific mortality in both group of population (all ages and elderly) with a greater effect among the elderly, particularly for respiratory mortality. For this case, we observed a greater effect according to distributed lag models (0-5 days) among the elderly, with an estimated increase of 9.2% in the daily number of deaths for 10 μg/m 3 of daily black smoke [95% CI, 3.4-15.3]. These results contribute to the efforts made to understand how air pollution promotes adverse health effects and to identify susceptible subgroups

  2. Online Recognition of Daily Activities by Color-Depth Sensing and Knowledge Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crispim-Junior, Carlos Fernando; Gómez Uría, Alvaro; Strumia, Carola; Koperski, Michal; König, Alexandra; Negin, Farhood; Cosar, Serhan; Nghiem, Anh Tuan; Chau, Duc Phu; Charpiat, Guillaume; Bremond, Francois

    2017-06-29

    Visual activity recognition plays a fundamental role in several research fields as a way to extract semantic meaning of images and videos. Prior work has mostly focused on classification tasks, where a label is given for a video clip. However, real life scenarios require a method to browse a continuous video flow, automatically identify relevant temporal segments and classify them accordingly to target activities. This paper proposes a knowledge-driven event recognition framework to address this problem. The novelty of the method lies in the combination of a constraint-based ontology language for event modeling with robust algorithms to detect, track and re-identify people using color-depth sensing (Kinect ® sensor). This combination enables to model and recognize longer and more complex events and to incorporate domain knowledge and 3D information into the same models. Moreover, the ontology-driven approach enables human understanding of system decisions and facilitates knowledge transfer across different scenes. The proposed framework is evaluated with real-world recordings of seniors carrying out unscripted, daily activities at hospital observation rooms and nursing homes. Results demonstrated that the proposed framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods in a variety of activities and datasets, and it is robust to variable and low-frame rate recordings. Further work will investigate how to extend the proposed framework with uncertainty management techniques to handle strong occlusion and ambiguous semantics, and how to exploit it to further support medicine on the timely diagnosis of cognitive disorders, such as Alzheimer's disease.

  3. A Predictive Model for Daily Inoculum Levels of Gibberella zeae in Passo Fundo, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcio Nicolau

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The deposition of spores of Gibberella zeae, the causal agent of Fusarium head blight of wheat, was monitored during 2008–2011, in Passo Fundo, RS, Brazil. The sampling was carried out in a 31-day period around wheat flowering. The numbers of colonies formed were related to meteorological variables. In this study, a hierarchical autoregressive binary data model was used. The model relates a binary response variable to potential covariates while accounting for dependence over discrete time points. This paper proposes an approach for both model parameter inference and prediction at future time points using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC. The developed model appeared to have a high degree of accuracy and may have implications in the disease control and risk-management planning.

  4. Gender-related differences in maximum gait speed and daily physical activity in elderly hospitalized cardiac inpatients: a preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izawa, Kazuhiro P; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirano, Yasuyuki; Matsushima, Shinya; Suzuki, Tomohiro; Oka, Koichiro; Kida, Keisuke; Suzuki, Kengo; Osada, Naohiko; Omiya, Kazuto; Brubaker, Peter H; Shimizu, Hiroyuki; Akashi, Yoshihiro J

    2015-03-01

    Maximum gait speed and physical activity (PA) relate to mortality and morbidity, but little is known about gender-related differences in these factors in elderly hospitalized cardiac inpatients. This study aimed to determine differences in maximum gait speed and daily measured PA based on sex and the relationship between these measures in elderly cardiac inpatients.A consecutive 268 elderly Japanese cardiac inpatients (mean age, 73.3 years) were enrolled and divided by sex into female (n = 75, 28%) and male (n = 193, 72%) groups. Patient characteristics and maximum gait speed, average step count, and PA energy expenditure (PAEE) in kilocalorie per day for 2 days assessed by accelerometer were compared between groups.Gait speed correlated positively with in-hospital PA measured by average daily step count (r = 0.46, P gait speed was slower and PA lower in elderly female versus male inpatients. Minimum gait speed and step count values in this study might be minimum target values for elderly male and female Japanese cardiac inpatients.

  5. Sex-related differences in serum cotinine concentrations in daily cigarette smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Wen Qi; Cohen, Sigal Ben-Zaken; Man, S F Paul; Sin, Don D

    2008-08-01

    Self-reported use of cigarettes generally underestimates the true cigarette exposure of smokers. Serum cotinine is considered the best biomarker to evaluate tobacco exposure. This study determined whether or not there were any significant differences in serum cotinine concentrations between men and women when they reported smoking the same number of cigarettes per day. We analyzed cotinine and tobacco consumption data on 680 women and 840 men, aged 20 years or older, who smoked at least 100 cigarettes during their lifetime and were still actively smoking at the time of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (1999-2002). Overall, compared with men, women reported smoking fewer cigarettes per day (16.1 vs. 18.7, ppoverty status, the use of either menthol or regular cigarettes, and the nicotine content in cigarettes, female compared with male smokers had lower serum cotinine concentrations (difference of 117.6 nmol/L; 95% CI = 42.6-192.6, p = .003). The difference was particularly notable in moderate to heavy smokers (i.e., those who smoked more than 15 cigarettes/day). These findings indicate that significant sex-related differences exist in serum cotinine levels among smokers, which suggests that self-reports may overestimate cigarette exposure in women compared with men.

  6. Development of a Disaggregation Framework toward the Estimation of Subdaily Reference Evapotranspiration: 1- Performance Comparison of some Daily-to-subdaily Weather Data Disaggregation Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzin Parchami-Araghi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In order to provide more realistic representation of processes governing the water and energy balances as well as water quality and plant physiological processes, weather data are needed at finer timescales than currently are available at most regions. In this study, a physically based framework was developed to disaggregate daily weather data needed for estimation of subdaily reference evapotranspiration, including air temperature, wind speed, dew point, actual vapour pressure, relative humidity, and solar radiation. In this paper, the results of performance comparison of the utilized disaggregation approaches are presented. Materials and Methods: In developed framework, missing daily weather data are filled by implementation of a search-optimization algorithm. Meanwhile, disaggregation models can be calibrated using Unified Particle Swarm Optimization (UPSO algorithm. Daily and subdaily solar radiation is estimated, using a general physically based model proposed by Yang et al. (YNG model. Long-term daily and three-hourly weather data obtained from Abadan (59 years and Ahvaz (50 years synoptic weather stations were used to evaluate the performance of the developed framework. In order to evaluate the accuracy of the different disaggregation models, the mean error (ME, mean absolute error (MAE, root mean square error (RMSE, and Pearson correlation coefficient (r, and model efficiency coefficient (EF statistics were calculated. Different contributions to the overall mean square error was decomposed, using a regression-based method. Results and Discussion: The results indicated that compared to the WAVE I, WAVE II, WCALC, ERBS, and ESRA models, the calibrated TM model had the best performance to disaggregate daily air temperature with a EF of 0.9775 to 0.9924. Compared to air temperature disaggregation models with an arbitrary value for the time of maximum and minimum air temperature, the models in which the above mentioned times are

  7. Activities of daily living for patients with chronic heart failure: a partnership care model evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi, Eesa; Khoshab, Hadi; Kazemnejad, Anoshirvan

    2016-05-01

    The study determined the effect of a partnership care model (PCM) on the activities of daily living (ADL) of patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Management programs for patients with CHF are needed to optimize care. This randomized clinical trial was designed in 2011 in four wards at two Iranian hospital centers with the participation of 104 patients with CHF who had hospitalization histories. The Lawton questionnaire was used to measure the dependent variable (ADL) at baseline after 3 months. The mean difference (pre- and post-intervention) of the scores for the control (MD=0.06; SD=1.5) and experimental (MD=-2.3; SD=1.4) groups were calculated. T-test results showed that there was a significant difference in the means (p<0.05) between groups. The effect size (2.18) and standardized effect size (54.5) were also calculated. The findings suggest that centered ADL intervention based on a PCM improved the ADL of patients substantially more than other interventions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Comparative efficacy of two daily use mouthrinses: randomized clinical trial using an experimental gingivitis model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles, Christine Ann; McGuire, James Anthony; Sharma, Naresh Chandra; Qaqish, James

    2011-01-01

    Two antimicrobial agents, a fixed combination of essential oils (EOs) and 0.07% cetylpyridinium chloride (CPC) are found in commercially available mouthrinses, Listerine® Antiseptic and Crest® Pro HealthTM, respectively. Both mouthrinses have been shown to control dental plaque and gingivitis in short and longer term studies. The aim of this study was to determine the comparative effectiveness of these two mouthrinses using a 2-week experimental gingivitis model. Qualified subjects were randomly assigned to one of three mouthrinse groups: a fixed combination of EOs, 0.07% CPC, or negative control (C) rinse. Following baseline clinical assessments and a dental prophylaxis, subjects began a two-week period in which they rinsed twice daily with their assigned rinse and abstained from any mechanical oral hygiene procedures or other oral care products. Subjects were reassessed at the end of the two-week period. One hundred and forty-seven subjects were randomized and 142 completed this study. After two weeks use, the EOs rinse was superior (p plaque, and bleeding, with 9.4% and 6.6% reductions compared to CPC for gingivitis and plaque, respectively. Both rinses were superior to the negative control rinse (p mechanical oral hygiene influence.

  9. Comparative efficacy of two daily use mouthrinses: randomized clinical trial using an experimental gingivitis model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Ann Charles

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Two antimicrobial agents, a fixed combination of essential oils (EOs and 0.07% cetylpyridinium chloride (CPC are found in commercially available mouthrinses, Listerine® Antiseptic and Crest® Pro HealthTM, respectively. Both mouthrinses have been shown to control dental plaque and gingivitis in short and longer term studies. The aim of this study was to determine the comparative effectiveness of these two mouthrinses using a 2-week experimental gingivitis model. Qualified subjects were randomly assigned to one of three mouthrinse groups: a fixed combination of EOs, 0.07% CPC, or negative control (C rinse. Following baseline clinical assessments and a dental prophylaxis, subjects began a two-week period in which they rinsed twice daily with their assigned rinse and abstained from any mechanical oral hygiene procedures or other oral care products. Subjects were reassessed at the end of the two-week period. One hundred and forty-seven subjects were randomized and 142 completed this study. After two weeks use, the EOs rinse was superior (p < 0.011 to the CPC rinse in inhibiting the development of gingivitis, plaque, and bleeding, with 9.4% and 6.6% reductions compared to CPC for gingivitis and plaque, respectively. Both rinses were superior to the negative control rinse (p < 0.001. This study demonstrates that the essential oil-containing mouthrinse has superior antiplaque/antigingivitis effectiveness compared to the 0.07% CPC-containing mouthrinse without mechanical oral hygiene influence.

  10. Cosmological models in general relativity

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Cosmological models in general relativity. B B PAUL. Department of Physics, Nowgong College, Nagaon, Assam, India. MS received 4 October 2002; revised 6 March 2003; accepted 21 May 2003. Abstract. LRS Bianchi type-I space-time filled with perfect fluid is considered here with deceler- ation parameter as variable.

  11. Panic attack history and anxiety sensitivity in relation to cognitive-based smoking processes among treatment-seeking daily smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Kirsten A; Farris, Samantha G; Schmidt, Norman B; Smits, Jasper A J; Zvolensky, Michael J

    2013-01-01

    Empirical research has found that panic attacks are related to increased risk of more severe nicotine withdrawal and poor cessation outcome. Anxiety sensitivity (AS; fear of anxiety and related sensations) has similarly been found to be related to an increased risk of acute nicotine withdrawal and poorer cessation outcome. However, research has yet to examine the relative contributions of panic attacks and AS in terms of cognitive-based smoking processes (e.g., negative reinforcement smoking expectancies, addictive and negative affect-based reduction smoking motives, barriers to cessation, problem symptoms experienced while quitting). Participants (n = 242; 57.4% male; M (age) = 38.1) were daily smokers recruited as a part of a larger randomized control trial for smoking cessation. It was hypothesized that both panic attacks and AS would uniquely and independently predict the studied cognitive-based smoking processes. As hypothesized, AS was uniquely and positively associated with all smoking processes after controlling for average number of cigarettes smoked per day, current Axis I diagnosis, and participant sex. However, panic attack history was only significantly related to problem symptoms experienced while quitting smoking. Although past research has demonstrated significant associations between panic attacks and certain aspects of cigarette smoking (e.g., severity of nicotine withdrawal; lower abstinence rates, and negative affect reduction motives), the present findings suggest that AS may be more relevant to understanding beliefs about and motives for smoking behavior as well as perceptions of cessation-related difficulties.

  12. Therapeutic Response to Twice-daily Rabeprazole on Health-related Quality of Life and Symptoms in Patients with Refractory Reflux Esophagitis: A Multicenter Observational Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Yoshikazu; Hongo, Michio; Kusano, Motoyasu; Furuhata, Yoshinori; Miyagishi, Hideaki; Ikeuchi, Satoshi

    2017-01-01

    Objective To investigate the effect of twice-daily rabeprazole doses on health-related quality of life in refractory patients. Methods and Patients Reflux esophagitis patients with an insufficient response to once-daily proton pump inhibitor therapy (Los Angeles Classification grade A-D) received rabeprazole 10 mg or 20 mg twice daily for 8 weeks. The health-related quality of life (SF-8™) and symptoms, using the Frequency Scale for the Symptoms of Gastroesophageal reflux disease, were evaluated before treatment and at weeks 4 and 8. Endoscopy was performed at baseline and at weeks 8 and 32 where possible. The rabeprazole dose was determined by the attending physician. Results There were 1,796 patients analyzed for the efficacy of the twice-daily treatment. Of these cases, 1,462 were treated with rabeprazole 10 mg twice daily, and 334 were treated with rabeprazole 20 mg twice daily. The factors that affected the selection of the twice-daily rabeprazole dose by physicians were evaluated, and as expected, “endoscopic findings when treatment was started” had a strong effect on the selection of the rabeprazole dose. With both regimens, health-related quality of life and subjective symptoms were significantly improved at weeks 4 and 8 compared to baseline (p<0.001). The recurrence rate of erosive esophagitis at week 32 was 9.7% in rabeprazole twice daily-treated patients and 28.4% in proton pump inhibitor (PPI) once daily-treated patients. Both regimens were well tolerated. Conclusion Twice-daily treatment with rabeprazole improved the subjective symptoms and health-related quality of life in patients with refractory reflux esophagitis more effectively than the standard once-daily dose. PMID:28502925

  13. Melatonin in octopus (Octopus vulgaris): tissue distribution, daily changes and relation with serotonin and its acid metabolite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, José L P; López Patiño, Marcos A; Hermosilla, Consuelo; Conde-Sieira, Marta; Soengas, José L; Rocha, Francisco; Míguez, Jesús M

    2011-08-01

    Information regarding melatonin production in molluscs is very limited. In this study the presence and daily fluctuations of melatonin levels were investigated in hemolymph, retina and nervous system-related structures in the cephalopod Octopus vulgaris. Adult animals were maintained in captivity under natural photoperiod and killed at different times in a regular daily cycle. Levels of melatonin, serotonin (5-HT) and its acid metabolite (5-hydroxyindole acetic acid, 5-HIAA) in the hemolymph, retina, optic lobe, and cerebral ganglion were assayed by HPLC. Melatonin content fluctuated rhythmically in the retina and hemolymph, peaking at night. In the retina, but not in the other neural tissues, the rhythm was opposite to that of 5-HT, which displayed basal levels at night. Also, 5-HIAA levels in the retina were higher during the night, supporting that rhythmic melatonin production could be linked to diurnal changes in 5-HT degradation. The high levels of melatonin found in the retina point to it as the major source of melatonin in octopus; in addition, a large variation of melatonin content was found in the optic lobe with maximal values at night. All these data suggest that melatonin might play a role in the transduction of the light-dark cycle information for adjustment of rhythmic physiological events in cephalopods.

  14. Psychosocial Stress After a Disaster and Low Back Pain-Related Interference With Daily Living Among College Students: A Cohort Study in Fukushima.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Kinshi; Sekiguchi, Miho; Nikaido, Takuya; Otoshi, Ken-Ichi; Matsuo, Yohei; Igari, Takahiro; Kobayashi, Yoshihiro; Takegami, Misa; Fukumori, Norio; Fukuma, Shingo; Kikuchi, Shin-Ichi; Fukuhara, Shun-Ichi; Konno, Shin-Ichi

    2017-08-15

    A cohort study. To investigate the association between psychosocial stress and low back pain (LBP)-related interference with daily living among college students. Few longitudinal studies have examined the likelihood of developing LBP in the presence of a designated psychosocial stressor. All participants in the present study were suddenly affected by the Great East Japan disaster after enrolment in our cohort study. The present study was initiated among 95 students at Fukushima Medical University in January 2011. We assessed psychosocial stress in students using the Japanese version of the Perceived Stress Scale (JPSS). Follow-up surveys were conducted in July 2011 and May 2013, analyzing 94 students. Students were then divided into three groups (improved, -19 to -4; Maintained, -3 to +4; Aggravated, +5 to +22) based on the tertile points of JPSS change from baseline to 4 months after the disaster. LBP-related interference with daily living was assessed using the Brief Pain Inventory (BPI) questionnaire. Linear regression modeling was performed with BPI at 4 months after the disaster as the outcome, and JPSS change, sex, history of LBP, baseline physical activity, and baseline BPI as explanatory variables. We found a significant increase in BPI score for the aggravated stress group (β coefficient, +0.79; 95% confidence interval, +0.06-+1.53), compared with the improved stress group. History of LBP and higher physical activity were also significantly associated with BPI. The present study suggests that perceived psychosocial stress induced by the disaster may be associated with LBP-related interference with daily living among college students in Fukushima. 3.

  15. Simulating sub-daily Intensity-Frequency-Duration curves in Australia using a dynamical high-resolution regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantegna, Gabriel A.; White, Christopher J.; Remenyi, Tomas A.; Corney, Stuart P.; Fox-Hughes, Paul

    2017-11-01

    Climate change has the potential to significantly alter the characteristics of high-intensity, short-duration rainfall events, potentially leading to more severe and more frequent flash floods. Research has shown that future changes to such events could far exceed expectations based on temperature scaling and basic physical principles alone, but that computationally expensive convection-permitting models are required to accurately simulate sub-daily extreme rainfall events. It is therefore crucial to be able to model future changes to sub-daily duration extreme rainfall events as cost effectively as possible, especially in Australia where such information is scarce. In this study, we seek to determine what the shortest duration of extreme rainfall is that can be simulated by a less computationally expensive convection-parametrizing Regional Climate Model (RCM). We examine the ability of the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), a ∼10 km high-resolution convection-parametrizing RCM, to reproduce sub-daily Intensity-Frequency-Duration (IFD) curves corresponding to two long-term observational stations in the Australian island state of Tasmania, and examine the future model projections. We find that CCAM simulates observed extreme rainfall statistics well for 3-h durations and longer, challenging the current understanding that convection-permitting models are needed to accurately model sub-daily extreme rainfall events. Further, future projections from CCAM for the end of this Century show that extreme sub-daily rainfall intensities could increase by more than 15% per °C, far exceeding the 7% scaling estimate predicted by the Clausius-Clapeyron vapour pressure relationship and the 5% scaling estimate recommended by the Australian Rainfall and Runoff guide.

  16. Application of Hydrological Model PRMS to Simulate Daily Rainfall Runoff in Zamask-Yingluoxia Subbasin of the Heihe River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Teng

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS has been applied to simulate rainfall runoff in Zamask-Yingluoxia subbasin of the Heihe River Basin in this study. By using observed data in the subbasin, the model has been calibrated by comparing model simulations of daily stream flow to observed data at Yinglouxia station for the period of summer in 2004. Then model verification was conducted by keeping the same model parameters for the simulation of the period from 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2006. Results from model verification indicate that the model is able to provide good accuracy of simulations of daily rainfall runoff and river flow at Yinglouxia station, with a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient of 0.90 and the root-mean-square error of 15.7 m3/s. The error of maximum peak flow is 6.9 m3/s (1.8% and the error of mean flow is 1.4 m3/s (2.5%. Comparing to previous studies, results indicate the improvement of model accuracy in simulations of daily rainfall runoff. The calibrated and verified hydrological model can be used to support flood hazard mitigations and water resource management in the Zamask-Yingluoxia subbasin.

  17. Epistemology and Rosen's Modeling Relation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dress, W.B.

    1999-01-01

    Rosen's modeling relation is embedded in Popper's three worlds to provide an heuristic tool for model building and a guide for thinking about complex systems. The utility of this construct is demonstrated by suggesting a solution to the problem of pseudo science and a resolution of the famous Bohr-Einstein debates. A theory of bizarre systems is presented by an analogy with entangled particles of quantum mechanics. This theory underscores the poverty of present-day computational systems (e.g., computers) for creating complex and bizarre entities by distinguishing between mechanism and organism

  18. Technical evaluation of a total maximum daily load model for Upper Klamath and Agency Lakes, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Tamara M.; Wherry, Susan A.; Carter, James L.; Kuwabara, James S.; Simon, Nancy S.; Rounds, Stewart A.

    2013-01-01

    We reviewed a mass balance model developed in 2001 that guided establishment of the phosphorus total maximum daily load (TMDL) for Upper Klamath and Agency Lakes, Oregon. The purpose of the review was to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the model and to determine whether improvements could be made using information derived from studies since the model was first developed. The new data have contributed to the understanding of processes in the lakes, particularly internal loading of phosphorus from sediment, and include measurements of diffusive fluxes of phosphorus from the bottom sediments, groundwater advection, desorption from iron oxides at high pH in a laboratory setting, and estimates of fluxes of phosphorus bound to iron and aluminum oxides. None of these processes in isolation, however, is large enough to account for the episodically high values of whole-lake internal loading calculated from a mass balance, which can range from 10 to 20 milligrams per square meter per day for short periods. The possible role of benthic invertebrates in lake sediments in the internal loading of phosphorus in the lake has become apparent since the development of the TMDL model. Benthic invertebrates can increase diffusive fluxes several-fold through bioturbation and biodiffusion, and, if the invertebrates are bottom feeders, they can recycle phosphorus to the water column through metabolic excretion. These organisms have high densities (1,822–62,178 individuals per square meter) in Upper Klamath Lake. Conversion of the mean density of tubificid worms (Oligochaeta) and chironomid midges (Diptera), two of the dominant taxa, to an areal flux rate based on laboratory measurements of metabolic excretion of two abundant species suggested that excretion by benthic invertebrates is at least as important as any of the other identified processes for internal loading to the water column. Data from sediment cores collected around Upper Klamath Lake since the development of the

  19. Persuasion, Politeness and Relational Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerzy Świątek

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Politeness Theory, just like Grice’s Cooperative Principle, points out that pragmatic analysis of language behaviour has to be grounded in extra-linguistic facts of social (or even biological nature. Additionally, despite the slightly misleading label, Politeness Theory provides a sound methodology to explain some persuasive as well as politeness phenomena. In the same vein, the so called Relational Model Theory provides another theoretical framework for the explanation of persuasive phenomena and persuasive language. Both Relational Model Theory and Politeness Theory show that persuasion is also to be understood as a rational response to not-so-rational social and biological needs. In the article an attempt is made to compare the two theories focusing on their explanatory power in reference to language choices aiming at enhancing the persuasive potential of a language message.

  20. Health professionals perceive teamwork with relatives as an obstacle in their daily work - a focus group interview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laursen, Jannie; Broholm, Malene; Rosenberg, Jacob

    2017-09-01

    Health professionals must often balance between different rationalities within the hospital organisation. Having adequate time with patients, shorter waiting time and the ability to greater professional autonomy have been shown to help provide a higher quality of care. Empathy and sympathy appear to be crucial components for the health professionals and their relationship to patients. The aim of this study was to explore health professionals' experiences of relatives to critically ill patients in order to identify aspects that may facilitate a better understanding of this teamwork. The study was descriptive and exploratory and had a qualitative design with a phenomenological/hermeneutic orientation for the interviews. Focus group was the chosen methodology. The study comprised 19 health professionals in four focus groups. Two themes emerged from the interviews: the hospital culture does not integrate relatives, and health professionals felt that relatives took their resources and saw them as an obstacle in their daily work. Health professionals felt divided between the system and the individual sphere, which makes it difficult for them to integrate relatives more and see them as participants in a natural teamwork for the benefit of the patient. © 2016 Nordic College of Caring Science.

  1. Estimating Daily Evapotranspiration From Remotely Sensed Instantaneous Observations With Simplified Derivations of a Theoretical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Ronglin; Li, Zhao-Liang

    2017-10-01

    Surface evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the key components in global hydrological cycle and energy budget on Earth. This paper designs a theoretical relationship between daily and instantaneous ETs with a multiplication of multiple fractions through a mathematical derivation of the physics-based Penman-Monteith equation and further develops five methods for converting remotely sensed instantaneous ET to daily values, one of which is equivalent to the conventional constant evaporative fraction (EF) method. The five methods are then evaluated and intercompared using long-term ground-based eddy covariance system-measured half-hourly latent heat flux (LE) and three groups of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-based instantaneous LE data sets collected from April 2009 to late October 2011 at the Yucheng station. Overall, the constant decoupling factor (Ω) method, the constant surface resistance (Rc) method, and the constant ratio of surface resistance to aerodynamic resistance (Rc/Ra) method could produce daily LE estimates that are in reasonably good agreement with the ground-based eddy covariance measurements, whereas the constant EF method and the constant Priestley-Taylor parameter (α) method underestimate the daily LE with larger biases and root-mean-square errors. The former three methods are of more solid physical foundation and can effectively capture the effect of temporally variable meteorological factors on the diurnal pattern of surface ET. They provide good alternatives to the nowadays commonly applied methods for the conversion of remotely sensed instantaneous ET to daily values.

  2. Artificial neural network models for prediction of daily fine particulate matter concentrations in Algiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chellali, M R; Abderrahim, H; Hamou, A; Nebatti, A; Janovec, J

    2016-07-01

    Neural network (NN) models were evaluated for the prediction of suspended particulates with aerodynamic diameter less than 10-μm (PM10) concentrations. The model evaluation work considered the sequential hourly concentration time series of PM10, which were measured at El Hamma station in Algiers. Artificial neural network models were developed using a combination of meteorological and time-scale as input variables. The results were rather satisfactory, with values of the coefficient of correlation (R (2)) for independent test sets ranging between 0.60 and 0.85 and values of the index of agreement (IA) between 0.87 and 0.96. In addition, the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), the normalized mean squared error (NMSE), the absolute relative percentage error (ARPE), the fractional bias (FB), and the fractional variance (FS) were calculated to assess the performance of the model. It was seen that the overall performance of model 3 was better than models 1 and 2.

  3. The role of competence and value beliefs in students' daily emotional experiences : A multilevel test of a transactional model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ahmed, W.; Minnaert, A.E.M.G.; Van der Werf, M.P.C.; Kuyper, H.

    2010-01-01

    This study examined the mutual influence of relatively stable personal competence and value beliefs and lesson specific appraisals of competence and value on daily emotional experiences of students in the classroom context. Personal competence and value beliefs were measured by means of

  4. Application of Hydrological Model PRMS to Simulate Daily Rainfall Runoff in Zamask-Yingluoxia Subbasin of the Heihe River Basin

    OpenAIRE

    Fei Teng; Wenrui Huang; Yi Cai; Chunmiao Zheng; Songbin Zou

    2017-01-01

    The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) has been applied to simulate rainfall runoff in Zamask-Yingluoxia subbasin of the Heihe River Basin in this study. By using observed data in the subbasin, the model has been calibrated by comparing model simulations of daily stream flow to observed data at Yinglouxia station for the period of summer in 2004. Then model verification was conducted by keeping the same model parameters for the simulation of the period from 1 January 2003 to 31 Decem...

  5. Contribution of cancer symptoms, dysfunctional sleep related thoughts, and sleep inhibitory behaviors to the insomnia process in breast cancer survivors: a daily process analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumble, Meredith E; Keefe, Francis J; Edinger, Jack D; Affleck, Glenn; Marcom, P Kelly; Shaw, Heather S

    2010-11-01

    using a comprehensive cognitive-behavioral model of insomnia and a daily process approach, this study was conducted to examine the contribution of cancer symptoms and dysfunctional sleep related thoughts and behaviors to the process of insomnia in breast cancer survivors. within-group longitudinal research design. an academic medical center. 41 women with breast cancer who had completed their primary cancer treatment and met Research Diagnostic Criteria for primary insomnia or insomnia comorbid with breast cancer. NA. for 28 days, participants completed morning diaries assessing sleep, nighttime pain and hot flashes, and dysfunctional sleep related thoughts and behaviors during the day and night, and evening diaries assessing daytime pain, fatigue, hot flashes, and mood. All diaries were collected using an automated telephone-based system. Results revealed that poorer sleep was related to nighttime pain and hot flashes in breast cancer patients. Time-lagged effects were also found. The current study identified higher levels of dysfunctional sleep related thoughts and sleep inhibitory behaviors during the day and night as antecedents of insomnia, and higher levels of pain, fatigue, and hot flashes and lower levels of positive mood and dysfunctional sleep related thoughts as consequences of insomnia in this population. the current study found support for a comprehensive cognitive-behavioral model of insomnia, which has several theoretical, practice, and research implications.

  6. Performance of five surface energy balance models for estimating daily evapotranspiration in high biomass sorghum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagle, Pradeep; Bhattarai, Nishan; Gowda, Prasanna H.; Kakani, Vijaya G.

    2017-06-01

    Robust evapotranspiration (ET) models are required to predict water usage in a variety of terrestrial ecosystems under different geographical and agrometeorological conditions. As a result, several remote sensing-based surface energy balance (SEB) models have been developed to estimate ET over large regions. However, comparison of the performance of several SEB models at the same site is limited. In addition, none of the SEB models have been evaluated for their ability to predict ET in rain-fed high biomass sorghum grown for biofuel production. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of five widely used single-source SEB models, namely Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), Mapping ET with Internalized Calibration (METRIC), Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS), Simplified Surface Energy Balance Index (S-SEBI), and operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop), for estimating ET over a high biomass sorghum field during the 2012 and 2013 growing seasons. The predicted ET values were compared against eddy covariance (EC) measured ET (ETEC) for 19 cloud-free Landsat image. In general, S-SEBI, SEBAL, and SEBS performed reasonably well for the study period, while METRIC and SSEBop performed poorly. All SEB models substantially overestimated ET under extremely dry conditions as they underestimated sensible heat (H) and overestimated latent heat (LE) fluxes under dry conditions during the partitioning of available energy. METRIC, SEBAL, and SEBS overestimated LE regardless of wet or dry periods. Consequently, predicted seasonal cumulative ET by METRIC, SEBAL, and SEBS were higher than seasonal cumulative ETEC in both seasons. In contrast, S-SEBI and SSEBop substantially underestimated ET under too wet conditions, and predicted seasonal cumulative ET by S-SEBI and SSEBop were lower than seasonal cumulative ETEC in the relatively wetter 2013 growing season. Our results indicate the necessity of inclusion of soil moisture or plant water stress

  7. Socioeconomic and lifestyle factors related to instrumental activity of daily living dynamics: results from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    d'Orsi, Eleonora; Xavier, Andre Junqueira; Steptoe, Andrew; de Oliveira, Cesar; Ramos, Luiz Roberto; Orrell, Martin; Demakakos, Panayotes; Marmot, Michael Gideon

    2014-09-01

    To investigate socioeconomic, demographic, and lifestyle factors that predict incident instrumental activity of daily living (IADL) impairment and recovery. Data from English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), a biennial prospective observational study. Individuals aged 50 and older living in England. A sample of 8,154 individuals without any difficulty in activities of daily living (ADLs) or IADLs was selected from the initial 11,391 participants. The first outcome was impairment in at least one IADL, and the second was IADL recovery. Main predictor: baseline socioeconomic position measured according to wealth. Outcomes and predictors were measured at each of the five follow-up interviews. Unadjusted and adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated through 2-year lagged Poisson regression in generalized estimating equation models, adjusted for sociodemographic, lifestyle, quality-of-life, and health variables. Between any two consecutive waves, 1,656 (20.3%) participants developed some IADL impairment. Those with higher socioeconomic position, better quality of life, vigorous physical activity, paid work, digital literacy (use of Internet or e-mail), and cultural leisure activities had significantly lower risk of IADL impairment. There was a significant association between smoking, cardiovascular disease, arthritis, poor memory, diabetes mellitus, and depressive symptoms and IADL impairment. Better quality of life, good self-rated memory and vigorous physical activity were independent predictors of IADL recovery. Better quality of life, vigorous physical activity, not smoking, paid work, cultural leisure activities, and digital literacy are modifiable factors that can decrease the incidence of IADL impairment. Good quality of life and vigorous physical activity have a significant role in recovery. Low socioeconomic position was a predictor of incident impairment of IADLs but not recovery. © 2014, Copyright the Authors

  8. Deriving a light use efficiency model from eddy covariance flux data for predicting daily gross primary production across biomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, W.; Liu, S.; Zhou, G.; Tieszen, L.L.; Baldocchi, D.; Bernhofer, C.; Gholz, H.; Goldstein, Allen H.; Goulden, M.L.; Hollinger, D.Y.; Hu, Y.; Law, B.E.; Stoy, Paul C.; Vesala, T.; Wofsy, S.C.

    2007-01-01

    The quantitative simulation of gross primary production (GPP) at various spatial and temporal scales has been a major challenge in quantifying the global carbon cycle. We developed a light use efficiency (LUE) daily GPP model from eddy covariance (EC) measurements. The model, called EC-LUE, is driven by only four variables: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), air temperature, and the Bowen ratio of sensible to latent heat flux (used to calculate moisture stress). The EC-LUE model relies on two assumptions: First, that the fraction of absorbed PAR (fPAR) is a linear function of NDVI; Second, that the realized light use efficiency, calculated from a biome-independent invariant potential LUE, is controlled by air temperature or soil moisture, whichever is most limiting. The EC-LUE model was calibrated and validated using 24,349 daily GPP estimates derived from 28 eddy covariance flux towers from the AmeriFlux and EuroFlux networks, covering a variety of forests, grasslands and savannas. The model explained 85% and 77% of the observed variations of daily GPP for all the calibration and validation sites, respectively. A comparison with GPP calculated from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) indicated that the EC-LUE model predicted GPP that better matched tower data across these sites. The realized LUE was predominantly controlled by moisture conditions throughout the growing season, and controlled by temperature only at the beginning and end of the growing season. The EC-LUE model is an alternative approach that makes it possible to map daily GPP over large areas because (1) the potential LUE is invariant across various land cover types and (2) all driving forces of the model can be derived from remote sensing data or existing climate observation networks.

  9. Functional and psychological variables both affect daily physical activity in COPD : A structural equations model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Altenburg, Wytske A.; Bossenbroek, Linda; de Greef, Mathieu H. G.; Kerstjens, Huib A. M.; ten Hacken, Nick H. T.; Wempe, Johan B.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Daily physical activity (DPA) level is reduced in patients with COPD. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of DPA with functional and psychological variables in these patients. Methods: 155 COPD patients (102 males, median (IQR) age 62 years (54-69 years), predicted

  10. Daily House Price Indices: Construction, Modeling, and Longer-Run Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Patton, Andrew J.; Wang, Wenjing

    We construct daily house price indices for ten major U.S. metropolitan areas. Our calculations are based on a comprehensive database of several million residential property transactions and a standard repeat-sales method that closely mimics the methodology of the popular monthly Case-Shiller hous...

  11. Daily Life Therapy: A Japanese Model for Educating Children with Autism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quill, Kathleen; And Others

    1989-01-01

    Five principles of Daily Life Therapy are examined: group-oriented instruction; highly structured routine activities; learning through imitation; reduction of unproductive activity levels through rigorous exercise; and a curriculum based on music, movement, and art. These tenets are discussed in terms of current theory, research, and educational…

  12. Achieving Consistent Multiple Daily Low-Dose Bacillus anthracis Spore Inhalation Exposures in the Rabbit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-13

    generating , sizing, quan- tifying, and sampling aerosols of inert materials also hold true for bioaerosols , i.e., for aerosolizing materials of...characterization, traditional bioaerosol generation and collection techniques can be employed to achieve consistent and reproducible low-dose expo- sures... generate and aerosolize consistent daily low aerosol concentrations and resultant low inhalation doses to rabbits. The pilot feasibility characterization

  13. Linear genetic programming for time-series modelling of daily flow rate

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    two versions of Neural Networks (NNs) are used in predicting time-series of daily flow rates at a station on Schuylkill River at Berne, PA, .... function estimate directly from the training data. (Cigizoglu and Alp 2006). ..... Note: Qmean – mean observed discharge, Sx – standard deviation, Qmin – mini- mum observed discharge ...

  14. Estimating daily surface NO2 concentrations from satellite data - a case study over Hong Kong using land use regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anand, Jasdeep S.; Monks, Paul S.

    2017-07-01

    Land use regression (LUR) models have been used in epidemiology to determine the fine-scale spatial variation in air pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in cities and larger regions. However, they are often limited in their temporal resolution, which may potentially be rectified by employing the synoptic coverage provided by satellite measurements. In this work a mixed-effects LUR model is developed to model daily surface NO2 concentrations over the Hong Kong SAR during the period 2005-2015. In situ measurements from the Hong Kong Air Quality Monitoring Network, along with tropospheric vertical column density (VCD) data from the OMI, GOME-2A, and SCIAMACHY satellite instruments were combined with fine-scale land use parameters to provide the spatiotemporal information necessary to predict daily surface concentrations. Cross-validation with the in situ data shows that the mixed-effects LUR model using OMI data has a high predictive power (adj. R2 = 0. 84), especially when compared with surface concentrations derived using the MACC-II reanalysis model dataset (adj. R2 = 0. 11). Time series analysis shows no statistically significant trend in NO2 concentrations during 2005-2015, despite a reported decline in NOx emissions. This study demonstrates the utility in combining satellite data with LUR models to derive daily maps of ambient surface NO2 for use in exposure studies.

  15. Simulation of daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Daniel E.; Haj, Adel E.; Risley, John C.

    2017-10-24

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa that drain into the Missouri River. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration periods for each basin varied depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations.A geographic information system tool was used to delineate each basin and estimate initial values for model parameters based on basin physical and geographical features. A U.S. Geological Survey automatic calibration tool that uses a shuffled complex evolution algorithm was used for initial calibration, and then manual modifications were made to parameter values to complete the calibration of each basin model. The main objective of the calibration was to match daily discharge values of simulated streamflow to measured daily discharge values. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was calibrated at 42 sites located in the 12 river basins in western Iowa.The accuracy of the simulated daily streamflow values at the 42 calibration sites varied by river and by site. The models were satisfactory at 36 of the sites based on statistical results. Unsatisfactory performance at the six other sites can be attributed to several factors: (1) low flow, no flow, and flashy flow conditions in headwater subbasins having a small drainage area; (2) poor representation of the groundwater and storage components of flow within a basin; (3) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and water use; and (4) limited availability and accuracy of meteorological input data. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

  16. Let it be and keep on going! Acceptance and daily occupational well-being in relation to negative work events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuba, Katharina; Scheibe, Susanne

    2017-01-01

    Negative work events can diminish daily occupational well-being, yet the degree to which they do so depends on the way in which people deal with their emotions. The aim of the current study was to examine the role of acceptance in the link between daily negative work events and occupational

  17. Growing Pains: The Impact of Disaster-Related and Daily Stressors on the Psychological and Psychosocial Functioning of Youth in Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernando, Gaithri A.; Miller, Kenneth E.; Berger, Dale E.

    2010-01-01

    Daily stressors may mediate the relation between exposure to disaster-related stressors and psychological and psychosocial distress among youth in disaster-affected countries. A sample of 427 Sri Lankan Sinhalese, Tamil, and Muslim youth (mean age = 14.5) completed a survey with measures of exposure to disaster-related stressors and daily…

  18. An Empirical Model Of Fractionally Cointegrated Daily High And Low Stock Market Prices

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Dvořáková, S.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 45, č. 1 (2015), s. 193-206 ISSN 0264-9993 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Keywords : fractional cointegration * long memory * range * volatility * daily high and low prices Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.997, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/barunik-0434888.pdf

  19. Achieving consistent multiple daily low-dose Bacillus anthracis spore inhalation exposures in the rabbit model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roy E Barnewall

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Repeated low-level exposures to Bacillus anthracis could occur before or after the remediation of an environmental release. This is especially true for persistent agents such as Bacillus anthracis spores, the causative agent of anthrax. Studies were conducted to examine aerosol methods needed for consistent daily low aerosol concentrations to deliver a low-dose (less than 106 colony forming units (CFU of B. anthracis spores and included a pilot feasibility characterization study, acute exposure study, and a multiple fifteen day exposure study. This manuscript focuses on the state-of-the-science aerosol methodologies used to generate and aerosolize consistent daily low aerosol concentrations and resultant low inhalation doses. The pilot feasibility characterization study determined that the aerosol system was consistent and capable of producing very low aerosol concentrations. In the acute, single day exposure experiment, targeted inhaled doses of 1 x 102, 1 x 103, 1 x 104, and 1 x 105 CFU were used. In the multiple daily exposure experiment, rabbits were exposed multiple days to targeted inhaled doses of 1 x 102, 1 x 103, and 1 x 104 CFU. In all studies, targeted inhaled doses remained fairly consistent from rabbit to rabbit and day to day. The aerosol system produced aerosolized spores within the optimal mass median aerodynamic diameter particle size range to reach deep lung alveoli. Consistency of the inhaled dose was aided by monitoring and recording respiratory parameters during the exposure with real-time plethysmography. Overall, the presented results show that the animal aerosol system was stable and highly reproducible between different studies and multiple exposure days.

  20. The impact of menstrual cycle-related physical symptoms on daily activities and psychological wellness among adolescent girls

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Iersel, K.C. van; Kiesner, J.; Pastore, M.; Scholte, R.H.J.

    2016-01-01

    Associations between perimenstrual physical and psychological symptoms have not been adequately studied among adolescent girls. The purpose of the present study was to test a mediation hypothesis postulating that perimenstrual disengagement from daily activities would mediate the association between

  1. A Count Model to Study the Correlates of 60 Min of Daily Physical Activity in Portuguese Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra Borges

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to present data on Portuguese children (aged 9–11 years complying with moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA guidelines, and to identify the importance of correlates from multiple domains associated with meeting the guidelines. Physical activity (PA was objectively assessed by accelerometry throughout seven days on 777 children. A count model using Poisson regression was used to identify the best set of correlates that predicts the variability in meeting the guidelines. Only 3.1% of children met the recommended daily 60 min of MVPA for all seven days of the week. Further, the Cochrane–Armitage chi-square test indicated a linear and negative trend (p < 0.001 from none to all seven days of children complying with the guidelines. The count model explained 22% of the variance in meeting MVPA guidelines daily. Being a girl, having a higher BMI, belonging to families with higher income, sleeping more and taking greater time walking from home to a sporting venue significantly reduced the probability of meeting daily recommended MVPA across the seven days. Furthermore, compared to girls, increasing sleep time in boys increased their chances of compliance with the MVPA recommendations. These results reinforce the relevance of considering different covariates’ roles on PA compliance when designing efficient intervention strategies to promote healthy and active lifestyles in children.

  2. Estimation of global daily irradiation in complex topography zones using digital elevation models and meteosat images: Comparison of the results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Durban, M. [Dpto. de Lenguajes y Computacion, Universidad de Almeria, 04120 Almeria (Spain); Zarzalejo, L.F.; Polo, J. [Dpto. de Energia, CIEMAT, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Bosch, J.L.; Rosiek, S.; Batlles, F.J. [Dpto. Fisica Aplicada, Universidad de Almeria, 04120 Almeria (Spain)

    2009-09-15

    The knowledge of the solar irradiation in a certain place is fundamental for the suitable location of solar systems, both thermal and photovoltaic. On the local scale, the topography is the most important modulating factor of the solar irradiation on the surface. In this work the global daily irradiation is estimated concerning various sky conditions, in zones of complex topography. In order to estimate the global daily irradiation we use a methodology based on a Digital Terrain Model (DTM), on one hand making use of pyranometer measurements and on the other hand utilizing satellite images. We underline that DTM application employing pyranometer measurements produces better results than estimation using satellite images, though accuracy of the same order is obtained in both cases for Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Bias Error (MBE). (author)

  3. Improving daily streamflow forecasts in mountainous Upper Euphrates basin by multi-layer perceptron model with satellite snow products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uysal, Gökçen; Şensoy, Aynur; Şorman, A. Arda

    2016-12-01

    This paper investigates the contribution of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite Snow Cover Area (SCA) product and in-situ snow depth measurements to Artificial Neural Network model (ANN) based daily streamflow forecasting in a mountainous river basin. In order to represent non-linear structure of the snowmelt process, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) Feed-Forward Backpropagation (FFBP) architecture is developed and applied in Upper Euphrates River Basin (10,275 km2) of Turkey where snowmelt constitutes approximately 2/3 of total annual volume of runoff during spring and early summer months. Snowmelt season is evaluated between March and July; 7 years (2002-2008) seasonal daily data are used during training while 3 years (2009-2011) seasonal daily data are split for forecasting. One of the fastest ANN training algorithms, the Levenberg-Marquardt, is used for optimization of the network weights and biases. The consistency of the network is checked with four performance criteria: coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (ME), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). According to the results, SCA observations provide useful information for developing of a neural network model to predict snowmelt runoff, whereas snow depth data alone are not sufficient. The highest performance is experienced when total daily precipitation, average air temperature data are combined with satellite snow cover data. The data preprocessing technique of Discrete Wavelet Analysis (DWA) is coupled with MLP modeling to further improve the runoff peak estimates. As a result, Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency is increased from 0.52 to 0.81 for training and from 0.51 to 0.75 for forecasting. Moreover, the results are compared with that of a conceptual model, Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM), application using SCA as an input. The importance and the main contribution of this study is to use of satellite snow products and data

  4. Validating a model that predicts daily growth and feed quality of New Zealand dairy pastures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodward, S J

    2001-09-01

    The Pasture Quality (PQ) model is a simple, mechanistic, dynamical system model that was designed to capture the essential biological processes in grazed grass-clover pasture, and to be optimised to derive improved grazing strategies for New Zealand dairy farms. While the individual processes represented in the model (photosynthesis, tissue growth, flowering, leaf death, decomposition, worms) were based on experimental data, this did not guarantee that the assembled model would accurately predict the behaviour of the system as a whole (i.e., pasture growth and quality). Validation of the whole model was thus a priority, since any strategy derived from the model could impact a farm business in the order of thousands of dollars per annum if adopted. This paper describes the process of defining performance criteria for the model, obtaining suitable data to test the model, and carrying out the validation analysis. The validation process highlighted a number of weaknesses in the model, which will lead to the model being improved. As a result, the model's utility will be enhanced. Furthermore, validation was found to have an unexpected additional benefit, in that despite the model's poor initial performance, support was generated for the model among field scientists involved in the wider project.

  5. Development of temporally refined land-use regression models predicting daily household-level air pollution in a panel study of lung function among asthmatic children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Markey; Macneill, Morgan; Grgicak-Mannion, Alice; Nethery, Elizabeth; Xu, Xiaohong; Dales, Robert; Rasmussen, Pat; Wheeler, Amanda

    2013-01-01

    Regulatory monitoring data and land-use regression (LUR) models have been widely used for estimating individual exposure to ambient air pollution in epidemiologic studies. However, LUR models lack fine-scale temporal resolution for predicting acute exposure and regulatory monitoring provides daily concentrations, but fails to capture spatial variability within urban areas. This study coupled LUR models with continuous regulatory monitoring to predict daily ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) and particulate matter (PM(2.5)) at 50 homes in Windsor, Ontario. We compared predicted versus measured daily outdoor concentrations for 5 days in winter and 5 days in summer at each home. We also examined the implications of using modeled versus measured daily pollutant concentrations to predict daily lung function among asthmatic children living in those homes. Mixed effect analysis suggested that temporally refined LUR models explained a greater proportion of the spatial and temporal variance in daily household-level outdoor NO(2) measurements compared with daily concentrations based on regulatory monitoring. Temporally refined LUR models captured 40% (summer) and 10% (winter) more of the spatial variance compared with regulatory monitoring data. Ambient PM(2.5) showed little spatial variation; therefore, daily PM(2.5) models were similar to regulatory monitoring data in the proportion of variance explained. Furthermore, effect estimates for forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV(1)) and peak expiratory flow (PEF) based on modeled pollutant concentrations were consistent with effects based on household-level measurements for NO(2) and PM(2.5). These results suggest that LUR modeling can be combined with continuous regulatory monitoring data to predict daily household-level exposure to ambient air pollution. Temporally refined LUR models provided a modest improvement in estimating daily household-level NO(2) compared with regulatory monitoring data alone, suggesting that this

  6. Review of revised Klamath River Total Maximum Daily Load models from Link River Dam to Keno Dam, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rounds, Stewart A.; Sullivan, Annett B.

    2013-01-01

    Flow and water-quality models are being used to support the development of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) plans for the Klamath River downstream of Upper Klamath Lake (UKL) in south-central Oregon. For riverine reaches, the RMA-2 and RMA-11 models were used, whereas the CE-QUAL-W2 model was used to simulate pooled reaches. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was asked to review the most upstream of these models, from Link River Dam at the outlet of UKL downstream through the first pooled reach of the Klamath River from Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam. Previous versions of these models were reviewed in 2009 by USGS. Since that time, important revisions were made to correct several problems and address other issues. This review documents an assessment of the revised models, with emphasis on the model revisions and any remaining issues. The primary focus of this review is the 19.7-mile Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam reach of the Klamath River that was simulated with the CE-QUAL-W2 model. Water spends far more time in the Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam reach than in the 1-mile Link River reach that connects UKL to the Klamath River, and most of the critical reactions affecting water quality upstream of Keno Dam occur in that pooled reach. This model review includes assessments of years 2000 and 2002 current conditions scenarios, which were used to calibrate the model, as well as a natural conditions scenario that was used as the reference condition for the TMDL and was based on the 2000 flow conditions. The natural conditions scenario included the removal of Keno Dam, restoration of the Keno reef (a shallow spot that was removed when the dam was built), removal of all point-source inputs, and derivation of upstream boundary water-quality inputs from a previously developed UKL TMDL model. This review examined the details of the models, including model algorithms, parameter values, and boundary conditions; the review did not assess the draft Klamath River TMDL or the TMDL allocations

  7. Documentation of a daily mean stream temperature module—An enhancement to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Michael J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Regan, R. Steven; Atkinson, R. Dwight

    2017-09-15

    A module for simulation of daily mean water temperature in a network of stream segments has been developed as an enhancement to the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). This new module is based on the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Stream Network Temperature model, a mechanistic, one-dimensional heat transport model. The new module is integrated in PRMS. Stream-water temperature simulation is activated by selection of the appropriate input flags in the PRMS Control File and by providing the necessary additional inputs in standard PRMS input files.This report includes a comprehensive discussion of the methods relevant to the stream temperature calculations and detailed instructions for model input preparation.

  8. Seasonal & Daily Amazon Column CO2 & CO Observations from Ground & Space Used to Evaluate Tropical Ecosystem Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubey, M. K.; Parker, H. A.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wunch, D.; Jacobson, A. R.; Kawa, S. R.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Basu, S.; O'Dell, C.; Frankenberg, C.; Michalak, A. M.; Baker, D. F.; Christofferson, B.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Saleska, S. R.; De Araujo, A. C.; Miller, J. B.

    2016-12-01

    The Amazon basin stores 150-200 PgC, exchanges 18 PgC with the atmosphere every year and has taken up 0.42-0.65 PgC/y over the past two decades. Despite its global significance, the response of the tropical carbon cycle to climate variability and change is ill constrained as evidenced by the large negative and positive feedbacks in future climate simulations. The complex interplay of radiation, water and ecosystem phenology remains unresolved in current tropical ecosystem models. We use high frequency regional scale TCCON observations of column CO2, CO and CH4 near Manaus, Brazil that began in October 2014 to understand the aforementioned interplay of processes in regulating biosphere-atmosphere exchange. We observe a robust daily column CO2 uptake of about 2 ppm (4 ppm to 0.5 ppm) over 8 hours and evaluate how it changes as we transition to the dry season. Back-trajectory calculations show that the daily CO2 uptake footprint is terrestrial and influenced by the heterogeneity of the Amazon rain forests. The column CO falls from above 120 ppb to below 80 ppb as we transition from the biomass burning to wet seasons. The daily mean column CO2 rises by 3 ppm from October through June. Removal of biomass burning, secular CO2 increase and variations from transport (by Carbon tracker simulations) implies an increase of 2.3 ppm results from tropical biospheric processes (respiration and photosynthesis). This is consistent with ground-based remote sensing and eddy flux observations that indicate that leaf development and demography drives the tropical carbon cycle in regions that are not water limited and is not considered in current models. We compare our observations with output from 7 CO2 inversion transport models with assimilated meteorology and find that while 5 models reproduce the CO2 seasonal cycle all of them under predict the daily drawdown of CO2 by a factor of 3. This indicates that the CO2 flux partitioning between photosynthesis and respiration is incorrect

  9. Late morbidity after treatment of breast cancer in relation to daily activities and quality of life : a systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rietman, J.S.; Dijkstra, P.U.; Hoekstra, H.J.; Eisma, W.H.; Szabo, B.G.; Groothoff, J.W.; Geertzen, J.H.

    Aims: Breast cancer treatment may result in long-term upper limb morbidity: reduced range of motion of the shoulder, muscle weakness of the arm and hand, lymph edema, pain and numbness. Relationship of this late morbidity with activities of daily life (ADL) and quality of life (QOL) is infrequently

  10. Socio-Demographic and Lifestyle-Related Characteristics Associated with Self-Reported Any, Daily and Occasional Smoking during Pregnancy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baron, R.; Manniën, J.; de Jonge, J.; Heijmans, M.W.; Klomp, T.; Hutton, E.K.; Brug, J.

    2013-01-01

    Smoking during pregnancy is a risk factor for various adverse birth outcomes. In order to develop effective interventions, insight is needed into the characteristics associated with pregnant women who smoke. Unknown is whether these characteristics differ for women who smoke daily and women who

  11. Bayesian modeling of the assimilative capacity component of nutrient total maximum daily loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faulkner, B. R.

    2008-08-01

    Implementing stream restoration techniques and best management practices to reduce nonpoint source nutrients implies enhancement of the assimilative capacity for the stream system. In this paper, a Bayesian method for evaluating this component of a total maximum daily load (TMDL) load capacity is developed and applied. The joint distribution of nutrient retention metrics from a literature review of 495 measurements was used for Monte Carlo sampling with a process transfer function for nutrient attenuation. Using the resulting histograms of nutrient retention, reference prior distributions were developed for sites in which some of the metrics contributing to the transfer function were measured. Contributing metrics for the prior include stream discharge, cross-sectional area, fraction of storage volume to free stream volume, denitrification rate constant, storage zone mass transfer rate, dispersion coefficient, and others. Confidence of compliance (CC) that any given level of nutrient retention has been achieved is also determined using this approach. The shape of the CC curve is dependent on the metrics measured and serves in part as a measure of the information provided by the metrics to predict nutrient retention. It is also a direct measurement, with a margin of safety, of the fraction of export load that can be reduced through changing retention metrics. For an impaired stream in western Oklahoma, a combination of prior information and measurement of nutrient attenuation was used to illustrate the proposed approach. This method may be considered for TMDL implementation.

  12. Adaptive step goals and rewards: a longitudinal growth model of daily steps for a smartphone-based walking intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korinek, Elizabeth V; Phatak, Sayali S; Martin, Cesar A; Freigoun, Mohammad T; Rivera, Daniel E; Adams, Marc A; Klasnja, Pedja; Buman, Matthew P; Hekler, Eric B

    2018-02-01

    Adaptive interventions are an emerging class of behavioral interventions that allow for individualized tailoring of intervention components over time to a person's evolving needs. The purpose of this study was to evaluate an adaptive step goal + reward intervention, grounded in Social Cognitive Theory delivered via a smartphone application (Just Walk), using a mixed modeling approach. Participants (N = 20) were overweight (mean BMI = 33.8 ± 6.82 kg/m 2 ), sedentary adults (90% female) interested in participating in a 14-week walking intervention. All participants received a Fitbit Zip that automatically synced with Just Walk to track daily steps. Step goals and expected points were delivered through the app every morning and were designed using a pseudo-random multisine algorithm that was a function of each participant's median baseline steps. Self-report measures were also collected each morning and evening via daily surveys administered through the app. The linear mixed effects model showed that, on average, participants significantly increased their daily steps by 2650 (t = 8.25, p model with a quadratic time variable indicated an inflection point for increasing steps near the midpoint of the intervention and this effect was significant (t 2  = -247, t = -5.01, p goal + rewards intervention using a smartphone app appears to be a feasible approach for increasing walking behavior in overweight adults. App satisfaction was high and participants enjoyed receiving variable goals each day. Future mHealth studies should consider the use of adaptive step goals + rewards in conjunction with other intervention components for increasing physical activity.

  13. Modelling Seasonal GWR of Daily PM2.5 with Proper Auxiliary Variables for the Yangtze River Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Man Jiang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Over the past decades, regional haze episodes have frequently occurred in eastern China, especially in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD. Satellite derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD has been used to retrieve the spatial coverage of PM2.5 concentrations. To improve the retrieval accuracy of the daily AOD-PM2.5 model, various auxiliary variables like meteorological or geographical factors have been adopted into the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR model. However, these variables are always arbitrarily selected without deep consideration of their potentially varying temporal or spatial contributions in the model performance. In this manuscript, we put forward an automatic procedure to select proper auxiliary variables from meteorological and geographical factors and obtain their optimal combinations to construct four seasonal GWR models. We employ two different schemes to comprehensively test the performance of our proposed GWR models: (1 comparison with other regular GWR models by varying the number of auxiliary variables; and (2 comparison with observed ground-level PM2.5 concentrations. The result shows that our GWR models of “AOD + 3” with three common meteorological variables generally perform better than all the other GWR models involved. Our models also show powerful prediction capabilities in PM2.5 concentrations with only slight overfitting. The determination coefficients R2 of our seasonal models are 0.8259 in spring, 0.7818 in summer, 0.8407 in autumn, and 0.7689 in winter. Also, the seasonal models in summer and autumn behave better than those in spring and winter. The comparison between seasonal and yearly models further validates the specific seasonal pattern of auxiliary variables of the GWR model in the YRD. We also stress the importance of key variables and propose a selection process in the AOD-PM2.5 model. Our work validates the significance of proper auxiliary variables in modelling the AOD-PM2.5 relationships and

  14. Genomic prediction and genomic variance partitioning of daily and residual feed intake in pigs using Bayesian Power Lasso models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Do, Duy Ngoc; Janss, L. L. G.; Strathe, Anders Bjerring

    of different power parameters had no effect on predictive ability. Partitioning of genomic variance showed that SNP groups either by position (intron, exon, downstream, upstream and 5’UTR) or by function (missense and protein-altering) had similar average explained variance per SNP, except that 3’UTR had...... genomic variance for RFI and daily feed intake (DFI). A total of 1272 Duroc pigs had both genotypic and phenotypic records for these traits. Significant SNPs were detected on chromosome 1 (SSC 1) and SSC 14 for RFI and on SSC 1 for DFI. BPL models had similar accuracy and bias as GBLUP method but use...

  15. Glenohumeral contact forces and muscle forces evaluated in wheelchair-related activities of daily living in able-bodied subjects versus subjects with paraplegia and tetraplegia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Drongelen, Stefan; van der Woude, Lucas H; Janssen, Thomas W; Angenot, Edmond L; Chadwick, Edward K; Veeger, Dirkjan H

    OBJECTIVE: To estimate the differences in glenohumeral contact forces and shoulder muscle forces between able-bodied subjects and subjects with paraplegia and tetraplegia during wheelchair-related activities of daily living (ADLs). DESIGN: Kinematics and external forces were measured during

  16. Glenohumeral contact forces and muscle forces evaluated in wheelchair-related activities of daily living in able-bodied subjects versus subjects with paraplegia and tetraplegia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Drongelen, S; van der Woude, LH; Janssen, Thomas W. J.; Angenot, EL; Chadwick, EK; Veeger, DirkJan (H. E. J.)

    Objective: To estimate the differences in glenohumeral contact forces and shoulder muscle forces between able-bodied subjects and subjects with paraplegia and tetraplegia during wheelchair-related activities of daily living (ADLs). Design: Kinematics and external forces were measured during

  17. The Impact of Social Support on the Relation between Stress from Daily Life Issues and Depression among East Asian International Students in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Hong-Ning

    2013-01-01

    Moderation effects of social support on the relation between stress resulting from five daily life issues (i.e., acculturation, second language, academic performance, interpersonal relationships, and financial concerns) and psychological distress (i.e., the level of depression) among China, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan international students…

  18. Modelling the Growth and Volatility in Daily International Mass Tourism to Peru

    OpenAIRE

    Jose Angelo Divino; Michael McAleer

    2009-01-01

    Peru is a South American country that is divided into two parts by the Andes Mountains. The rich historical, cultural and geographic diversity has led to the inclusion of ten Peruvian sites on UNESCO’s World Heritage List. For the potential negative impacts of mass tourism on the environment, and hence on future international tourism demand, to be managed appropriately require modelling growth rates and volatility adequately. The paper models the growth rate and volatility (or the variability...

  19. Relations Between Self-Reported Daily-Life Fatigue, Hearing Status, and Pupil Dilation During a Speech Perception in Noise Task

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Yang; Naylor, Graham; Kramer, Sophia E

    2017-01-01

    People with hearing impairment are likely to experience higher levels of fatigue because of effortful listening in daily communication. This hearing-related fatigue might not only constrain their work performance but also result in withdrawal from major social roles. Therefore, it is important......-life fatigue and an objective measure of pupil dilation, as an indicator of listening effort. These findings help to provide an empirical link between pupil responses, as observed in the laboratory, and daily-life fatigue.This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons...

  20. Changes in daily occupations and the meaning of work for three women caring for relatives post-stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dongen, Isabella; Josephsson, Staffan; Ekstam, Lisa

    2014-09-01

    This qualitative study explored how some working Austrians experienced and coped with changes in their daily occupations after becoming informal carers of persons who had had a stroke. The study provides insights into the working carers' occupational experiences and strategies during a period of pronounced life changes. Three participants, who were employed in full- or part-time work, as well as being informal carers of persons who had had a stroke, were interviewed on two occasions. The data from these interviews were analysed using Interpretative Phenomenological Analyses. Carers found themselves in an ongoing process, ranging from the disruption of daily occupations to their eventual restructure. First, the stroke led to involuntary changes in the carers' daily life, which resulted in challenges in their own, and in shared, occupations. Second, carers actively changed their values and performance of occupations, which appeared to be a strategy to shape their well-being. Paid work was found to be a stabilizing and balancing occupation, which contributed to coping and the well-being of carers. The authors' findings demonstrate the benefits of paid work and engagement in meaningful occupation for the carers' well-being. These results should encourage occupational therapists to be sensitive to the complexity of the lives of working informal carers.

  1. A long-term/short-term model for daily electricity prices with dynamic volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper we introduce a new stochastic long-term/short-term model for short-term electricity prices, and apply it to four major European indices, namely to the German, Dutch, UK and Nordic one. We give evidence that all time series contain certain periodic (mostly annual) patterns, and show how to use the wavelet transform, a tool of multiresolution analysis, for filtering purpose. The wavelet transform is also applied to separate the long-term trend from the short-term oscillation in the seasonal-adjusted log-prices. In all time series we find evidence for dynamic volatility, which we incorporate by using a bivariate GARCH model with constant correlation. Eventually we fit various models from the existing literature to the data, and come to the conclusion that our approach performs best. For the error distribution, the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution shows the best fit. (author)

  2. Modelling erosion on a daily basis, an adaptation of the MMF approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Dhruba Pikha; Jetten, Victor G.

    2018-02-01

    Effect of soil erosion causing negative impact on ecosystem services and food security is well known. On the other hand there can be yearly variation of total precipitation received in an area, with the presence of extreme rains. To assess annual erosion rates various empirical models have been extensively used in all the climatic regions. While these models are simple to operate and do not require lot of input data, the effect of extreme rain is not taken into account. Although physically based models are available to simulate erosion processes including particle detachment, transportation and deposition of sediments during a storm they are not applicable for assessing annual soil loss rates. Moreover storm event data may not be available everywhere prohibiting their extensive use.

  3. Forecasting daily political opinion polls using the fractionally cointegrated VAR model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Shibaev, Sergei S.

    trend from the model follows the vote share of the UKIP very closely, and we thus interpret it as a measure of Euro-skepticism in public opinion rather than an indicator of the more traditional left-right political spectrum. In terms of prediction of vote shares in the election, forecasts generated...... by the FCVAR model leading into the election appear to provide a more informative assessment of the current state of public opinion on electoral support than the hung parliament prediction of the opinion poll....

  4. Assessment of a conceptual hydrological model and artificial neural networks for daily outflows forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rezaeianzadeh, M.; Stein, A.; Tabari, H.; Abghari, H.; Jalalkamali, N.; Hosseinipour, E.Z.; Singh, V.P.

    2013-01-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are used by hydrologists and engineers to forecast flows at the outlet of a watershed. They are employed in particular where hydrological data are limited. Despite these developments, practitioners still prefer conventional hydrological models. This study applied

  5. Modeling daily flowering probabilities: expected impact of climate change on Japanese cherry phenology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Jenica M; Terres, Maria A; Katsuki, Toshio; Iwamoto, Kojiro; Kobori, Hiromi; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi; Primack, Richard B; Wilson, Adam M; Gelfand, Alan; Silander, John A

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the drivers of phenological events is vital for forecasting species' responses to climate change. We developed flexible Bayesian survival regression models to assess a 29-year, individual-level time series of flowering phenology from four taxa of Japanese cherry trees (Prunus spachiana, Prunus × yedoensis, Prunus jamasakura, and Prunus lannesiana), from the Tama Forest Cherry Preservation Garden in Hachioji, Japan. Our modeling framework used time-varying (chill and heat units) and time-invariant (slope, aspect, and elevation) factors. We found limited differences among taxa in sensitivity to chill, but earlier flowering taxa, such as P. spachiana, were more sensitive to heat than later flowering taxa, such as P. lannesiana. Using an ensemble of three downscaled regional climate models under the A1B emissions scenario, we projected shifts in flowering timing by 2100. Projections suggest that each taxa will flower about 30 days earlier on average by 2100 with 2-6 days greater uncertainty around the species mean flowering date. Dramatic shifts in the flowering times of cherry trees may have implications for economically important cultural festivals in Japan and East Asia. The survival models used here provide a mechanistic modeling approach and are broadly applicable to any time-to-event phenological data, such as plant leafing, bird arrival time, and insect emergence. The ability to explicitly quantify uncertainty, examine phenological responses on a fine time scale, and incorporate conditions leading up to an event may provide future insight into phenologically driven changes in carbon balance and ecological mismatches of plants and pollinators in natural populations and horticultural crops. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Jing-Cheng; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Yuefei; Zhang, Hua; Li, Zhong; Chen, Qiuwen

    2015-08-15

    Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Bayesian estimation of extreme flood quantiles using a rainfall-runoff model and a stochastic daily rainfall generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Veber; Fernandes, Wilson

    2017-11-01

    Extreme flood estimation has been a key research topic in hydrological sciences. Reliable estimates of such events are necessary as structures for flood conveyance are continuously evolving in size and complexity and, as a result, their failure-associated hazards become more and more pronounced. Due to this fact, several estimation techniques intended to improve flood frequency analysis and reducing uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation have been addressed in the literature in the last decades. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework for the indirect estimation of extreme flood quantiles from rainfall-runoff models. In the proposed approach, an ensemble of long daily rainfall series is simulated with a stochastic generator, which models extreme rainfall amounts with an upper-bounded distribution function, namely, the 4-parameter lognormal model. The rationale behind the generation model is that physical limits for rainfall amounts, and consequently for floods, exist and, by imposing an appropriate upper bound for the probabilistic model, more plausible estimates can be obtained for those rainfall quantiles with very low exceedance probabilities. Daily rainfall time series are converted into streamflows by routing each realization of the synthetic ensemble through a conceptual hydrologic model, the Rio Grande rainfall-runoff model. Calibration of parameters is performed through a nonlinear regression model, by means of the specification of a statistical model for the residuals that is able to accommodate autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and nonnormality. By combining the outlined steps in a Bayesian structure of analysis, one is able to properly summarize the resulting uncertainty and estimating more accurate credible intervals for a set of flood quantiles of interest. The method for extreme flood indirect estimation was applied to the American river catchment, at the Folsom dam, in the state of California, USA. Results show that most floods

  8. Comparative efficacy of two daily use mouthrinses: randomized clinical trial using an experimental gingivitis model

    OpenAIRE

    Charles, Christine Ann; McGuire, James Anthony; Sharma, Naresh Chandra; Qaqish, James

    2011-01-01

    Two antimicrobial agents, a fixed combination of essential oils (EOs) and 0.07% cetylpyridinium chloride (CPC) are found in commercially available mouthrinses, Listerine® Antiseptic and Crest® Pro HealthTM, respectively. Both mouthrinses have been shown to control dental plaque and gingivitis in short and longer term studies. The aim of this study was to determine the comparative effectiveness of these two mouthrinses using a 2-week experimental gingivitis model. Qualified subjects were rando...

  9. A statistical scheme to forecast the daily lightning threat over southern Africa using the Unified Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gijben, Morné; Dyson, Liesl L.; Loots, Mattheus T.

    2017-09-01

    Cloud-to-ground lightning data from the Southern Africa Lightning Detection Network and numerical weather prediction model parameters from the Unified Model are used to develop a lightning threat index (LTI) for South Africa. The aim is to predict lightning for austral summer days (September to February) by means of a statistical approach. The austral summer months are divided into spring and summer seasons and analysed separately. Stepwise logistic regression techniques are used to select the most appropriate model parameters to predict lightning. These parameters are then utilized in a rare-event logistic regression analysis to produce equations for the LTI that predicts the probability of the occurrence of lightning. Results show that LTI forecasts have a high sensitivity and specificity for spring and summer. The LTI is less reliable during spring, since it over-forecasts the occurrence of lightning. However, during summer, the LTI forecast is reliable, only slightly over-forecasting lightning activity. The LTI produces sharp forecasts during spring and summer. These results show that the LTI will be useful early in the morning in areas where lightning can be expected during the day.

  10. Self-reported recall and daily diary-recorded measures of weight monitoring adherence: associations with heart failure-related hospitalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Christine D; Holmes, George M; DeWalt, Darren A; Erman, Brian; Wu, Jia-Rong; Cene, Crystal W; Baker, David W; Schillinger, Dean; Ruo, Bernice; Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten; Macabasco-O'Connell, Aurelia; Hawk, Victoria; Broucksou, Kimberly; Pignone, Michael

    2014-01-31

    Weight monitoring is an important element of HF self-care, yet the most clinically meaningful way to evaluate weight monitoring adherence is uncertain. We conducted this study to evaluate the association of (1) self-reported recall and (2) daily diary-recorded weight monitoring adherence with heart failure-related (HF-related) hospitalization. We conducted a prospective cohort study among 216 patients within a randomized trial of HF self-care training. All patients had an initial self-care training session followed by 15 calls (median) to reinforce educational material; patients were also given digital scales, instructed to weigh daily, record weights in a diary, and mail diaries back monthly. Weight monitoring adherence was assessed with a self-reported recall question administered at 12 months and dichotomized into at least daily versus less frequent weighing. Diary-recorded weight monitoring was evaluated over 12 months and dichotomized into ≥80% and review. Over 12 months in 216 patients, we identified 50 HF-related hospitalizations. Patients self-reporting daily or more frequent weight monitoring had an incidence rate ratio of 1.34 (95% CI 0.24-7.32) for HF-related hospitalizations compared to those reporting less frequent weight monitoring. Patients who completed ≥80% of weight diaries had an IRR of 0.37 (95% CI 0.18-0.75) for HF-related hospitalizations compared to patients who completed <80% of weight diaries. Self-reported recall of weight monitoring adherence was not associated with fewer HF hospitalizations. In contrast, diary-recorded adherence ≥80% of days was associated with fewer HF-related hospitalizations. Incorporating diary-based measures of weight monitoring adherence into HF self-care training programs may help to identify patients at risk for HF-related hospitalizations.

  11. Beneficial Effect of Brewers' Yeast Extract on Daily Activity in a Murine Model of Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takashi Takahashi

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to assess the effect of Brewers' yeast extract (BYE on daily activity in a mouse model of chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS. CFS was induced by repeated injection of Brucella abortus (BA antigen every 2 weeks. BYE was orally administered to mice in a dose of 2 g per kg per day for 2 weeks before injecting BA and for 4 weeks thereafter. We evaluated daily running activity in mice receiving BYE as compared with that in untreated mice. Weekly variation of body weight (BW and survival in both groups was monitored during the observation period. Spleen weight (SW, SW/BW ratio, percent splenic follicular area and expression levels of interferon-γ (IFN-γ and interleukin-10 (IL-10 mRNA in spleen were determined in both groups at the time of sacrifice. The daily activity during 2 weeks after the second BA injection was significantly higher in the treated group than in the control. There was no difference in BW between both groups through the experimental course. Two mice in the control died 2 and 7 days after the second injection, whereas no mice in the treated group died. Significantly decreased SW and SW/BW ratio were observed in the treated mice together with elevation of splenic follicular area. There were suppressed IFN-γ and IL-10 mRNA levels in spleens from the treated mice. Our results suggest that BYE might have a protective effect on the marked reduction in activity following repeated BA injection via normalization of host immune responses.

  12. Markov chain modeling of daily rainfall in Lay Gaint Woreda, South Gonder Zone, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birhan Getachew

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Information on seasonal Kiremet and seasonal Belg rainfall amount is important in the rain fed agriculture of Ethiopia since more than 85% of the population is dependent on agriculture particularly on rain fed farming practices. The distribution pattern of rainfall rather than the total amount of rainfall within the entire period of time is more important for studying the pattern of rainfall occurrence. A two-state Markov chain was used to describe the characteristics of rainfall occurrences in this woreda. The states, as considered were; dry (d and rainy (r. The overall chance of rain and the fitted curve tells us that the chance of getting rain in the main rainy season is about twice as compared to the small rainy season. The first order Markov chain model indicates that the probability of getting rain in the small rainy season is significantly dependent on whether the earlier date was dry or wet. While the second order Marko chain indicates that the main rainy season the dependence of the probability of rain on the previous two dates’ conditions is less as compared with the small rainy season. Rainfall amounts are very variable and are usually modeled by a gamma distribution. Therefore, the pattern of rainfall is somewhat unimodial having only one extreme value in August.  Onset, cessation and length of growing season of rainfall for the main rainy season show medium variation compared to the small rainy season.

  13. MODIS/Terra+Aqua BRDF/Albedo Snow-free Model Parameters Daily L3 Global 0.05Deg CMG V006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Version 6 Bidirectional reflectance distribution function and Albedo (BRDF/Albedo) Model Snow Free Quality Parameters data set is a 5600 meter daily 16-day product....

  14. Performance Evaluation of Linear (ARMA and Threshold Nonlinear (TAR Time Series Models in Daily River Flow Modeling (Case Study: Upstream Basin Rivers of Zarrineh Roud Dam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farshad Fathian

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Time series models are generally categorized as a data-driven method or mathematically-based method. These models are known as one of the most important tools in modeling and forecasting of hydrological processes, which are used to design and scientific management of water resources projects. On the other hand, a better understanding of the river flow process is vital for appropriate streamflow modeling and forecasting. One of the main concerns of hydrological time series modeling is whether the hydrologic variable is governed by the linear or nonlinear models through time. Although the linear time series models have been widely applied in hydrology research, there has been some recent increasing interest in the application of nonlinear time series approaches. The threshold autoregressive (TAR method is frequently applied in modeling the mean (first order moment of financial and economic time series. Thise type of the model has not received considerable attention yet from the hydrological community. The main purposes of this paper are to analyze and to discuss stochastic modeling of daily river flow time series of the study area using linear (such as ARMA: autoregressive integrated moving average and non-linear (such as two- and three- regime TAR models. Material and Methods: The study area has constituted itself of four sub-basins namely, Saghez Chai, Jighato Chai, Khorkhoreh Chai and Sarogh Chai from west to east, respectively, which discharge water into the Zarrineh Roud dam reservoir. River flow time series of 6 hydro-gauge stations located on upstream basin rivers of Zarrineh Roud dam (located in the southern part of Urmia Lake basin were considered to model purposes. All the data series used here to start from January 1, 1997, and ends until December 31, 2011. In this study, the daily river flow data from January 01 1997 to December 31 2009 (13 years were chosen for calibration and data for January 01 2010 to December 31 2011

  15. Modeling daily soil temperature over diverse climate conditions in Iran—a comparison of multiple linear regression and support vector regression techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delbari, Masoomeh; Sharifazari, Salman; Mohammadi, Ehsan

    2018-02-01

    The knowledge of soil temperature at different depths is important for agricultural industry and for understanding climate change. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of a support vector regression (SVR)-based model in estimating daily soil temperature at 10, 30 and 100 cm depth at different climate conditions over Iran. The obtained results were compared to those obtained from a more classical multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The correlation sensitivity for the input combinations and periodicity effect were also investigated. Climatic data used as inputs to the models were minimum and maximum air temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, dew point, and the atmospheric pressure (reduced to see level), collected from five synoptic stations Kerman, Ahvaz, Tabriz, Saghez, and Rasht located respectively in the hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, Mediterranean, and hyper-humid climate conditions. According to the results, the performance of both MLR and SVR models was quite well at surface layer, i.e., 10-cm depth. However, SVR performed better than MLR in estimating soil temperature at deeper layers especially 100 cm depth. Moreover, both models performed better in humid climate condition than arid and hyper-arid areas. Further, adding a periodicity component into the modeling process considerably improved the models' performance especially in the case of SVR.

  16. Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jordan R.; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Kumar, Sujay V.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on a land surface model (LSM) apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. In the West, higher latent heat fluxes prevailed, which enhanced the rates of evapotranspiration and soil moisture depletion in the LSM. By late Summer and Autumn, both the average sensible and latent heat fluxes increased in the West as a result of the more rapid soil drying and higher coverage of GVF. The impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP was also examined for a single severe weather case study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate coupled LIS/WRF model simulations were made for the 17 July 2010 severe weather event in the Upper Midwest using the NCEP and SPoRT GVFs, with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and

  17. A computer tool for daily application of the linear quadratic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macias Jaen, J.; Galan Montenegro, P.; Bodineau Gil, C.; Wals Zurita, A.; Serradilla Gil, A.M.

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to indicate the relevance of the criteria A.S.A.R.A. (As Short As Reasonably Achievable) in the optimization of a fractionated radiotherapy schedule and the presentation of a Windows computer program as an easy tool in order to: Evaluate the Biological Equivalent Dose (BED) in a fractionated schedule; Make comparison between different treatments; Compensate a treatment when a delay has been happened with a version of the Linear Quadratic model that has into account the factor of accelerated repopulation. Conclusions: Delays in the normal radiotherapy schedule are items that have to be controlled as much as possible because it is able to be a very important parameter in order to release a good application of treatment, principally when the tumour is fast growing. It is necessary to evaluate them. ASARA criteria is useful to indicate the relevance of this aspect. Also, computer tools like this one could help us in order to achieve this. (author)

  18. The Figure 8 Model of International Relations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sibayan, Jerome T

    2008-01-01

    .... The Figure 8 Model is presented first in a Cartesian format and then in geometrical form. This model is an intuitive idea based on a particular reading of history rather than a new international relations theory...

  19. Existing Model Metrics and Relations to Model Quality

    OpenAIRE

    Mohagheghi, Parastoo; Dehlen, Vegard

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents quality goals for models and provides a state-of-the-art analysis regarding model metrics. While model-based software development often requires assessing the quality of models at different abstraction and precision levels and developed for multiple purposes, existing work on model metrics do not reflect this need. Model size metrics are descriptive and may be used for comparing models but their relation to model quality is not welldefined. Code metrics are proposed to be ...

  20. Analysis and modeling of daily air pollutants in the city of Ruse, Bulgaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheleva, I.; Veleva, E.; Filipova, M.

    2017-10-01

    The city of Ruse is situated in the north-eastern part of Bulgaria. The northern boundary of Ruse region goes along the Danube river valley and coincides with the state boundary of the Republic of Bulgaria and the Republic of Romania. The climate of the region of Ruse is temperate continental, characterized by cold winters and dry, warm summers. Spring and autumn are short. In our previous work we studied information from 40 years period measurements [6] of temperature, air humidity and atmospheric pressure in Ruse region, Bulgaria. It was shown that mean values of the temperature in Ruse region are slightly goes up for the last 10 years and they are bigger than the mean temperature for Bulgaria. This could be a proof for climate change in Ruse region of Bulgaria. The most variable atmospheric parameter is air humidity during the spring seasons. The hardest change of temperature and atmospheric pressure is during January. Temperature has biggest change in January and smallest - in July. Humidity has biggest change in April and smallest - in October. Atmospheric pressure has biggest change in January and smallest - in July [5]. Air pollution maybe affects temperature, atmospheric pressure and humidity. All this in our opinion may be a reason for the increase in average temperatures for the period examined. This paper is devoted to examine air pollution in the Ruse region. It presents a statistical analysis of the level of air pollution in Ruse on data from the monitoring stations in the city. The measurements cover the period from 2015 including up to now. For the most dangerous pollutant PM10 we create an ARIMA model which is in a good agreement with the PM10 measurements.

  1. Development of a stacked ensemble model for forecasting and analyzing daily average PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Binxu; Chen, Jianguo

    2018-04-18

    A stacked ensemble model is developed for forecasting and analyzing the daily average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in Beijing, China. Special feature extraction procedures, including those of simplification, polynomial, transformation and combination, are conducted before modeling to identify potentially significant features based on an exploratory data analysis. Stability feature selection and tree-based feature selection methods are applied to select important variables and evaluate the degrees of feature importance. Single models including LASSO, Adaboost, XGBoost and multi-layer perceptron optimized by the genetic algorithm (GA-MLP) are established in the level 0 space and are then integrated by support vector regression (SVR) in the level 1 space via stacked generalization. A feature importance analysis reveals that nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations measured from the city of Zhangjiakou are taken as the most important elements of pollution factors for forecasting PM 2.5 concentrations. Local extreme wind speeds and maximal wind speeds are considered to extend the most effects of meteorological factors to the cross-regional transportation of contaminants. Pollutants found in the cities of Zhangjiakou and Chengde have a stronger impact on air quality in Beijing than other surrounding factors. Our model evaluation shows that the ensemble model generally performs better than a single nonlinear forecasting model when applied to new data with a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 0.90 and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 23.69μg/m 3 . For single pollutant grade recognition, the proposed model performs better when applied to days characterized by good air quality than when applied to days registering high levels of pollution. The overall classification accuracy level is 73.93%, with most misclassifications made among adjacent categories. The results demonstrate the interpretability and generalizability of

  2. Relative Preservation of Advanced Activities in Daily Living among Patients with Mild-to-Moderate Dementia in the Community and Overview of Support Provided by Family Caregivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hajime Takechi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Little is known about the extent to which advanced activities of daily living among patients with dementia are preserved and how family caregivers of these patients support them in the community. In this cross-sectional assessment of pairs of patients with dementia and their family caregivers, we evaluated basic, instrumental, and advanced activities of daily living by comparing past and present status observed by caregivers with subjective estimations by patients with dementia. We also asked about ways in which support was provided by family caregivers. Thirty-nine pairs of patients with dementia and caregivers who presented to our memory clinic were interviewed. The mean age of patients with dementia was 75.3±7.0 years, and Mini-Mental State Examination scores were 22.3±3.4. We found relative preservation of advanced activities of daily living compared with instrumental activities of daily living. Caregivers provided instrumental, informational, and reminding support to patients with dementia. These findings may reinforce the concept of person-centered support of patients with dementia in the community.

  3. Using simple causal modeling to understand how water and temperature affect daily stem radial variation in trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deslauriers, Annie; Anfodillo, Tommaso; Rossi, Sergio; Carraro, Vinicio

    2007-08-01

    Variation in tree stem diameter results from reversible shrinking and swelling and irreversible radial growth, all processes that are influenced by tree water status. To assess the causal effects of water and temperature on stem radial variation (DeltaR) and maximum daily shrinkage (MDS), the diurnal cycle was divided into three phases: contraction, expansion and stem radius increment. Diurnal cycles were measured during 1996-2004 in Picea abies (L.) Karst., Pinus cembra L. and Larix decidua Mill. in a timberline ecotone to understand the links between stem diameter variation (v; defined as MDS or DR), phase duration (h), and weather or sap flow descriptors (d). We demonstrated that a high proportion of MDS and DeltaR was explained by h because of the nonlinearity of the physiological responses to weather d. By causal modeling, we tested whether the relationship between d and v was due to h (lack of causal relationship between d and v) or to both d and h (double cause). The results of this modeling added new physiological insight into daily growth-climate relationships. Negative correlations were found between DeltaR and air temperature owing to the negative effect of temperature on h only, and did not correspond to a direct effect on tree growth mediated by an alteration in metabolic activities. Precipitation had two main effects: a direct effect on DeltaR and an indirect effect mediated through an effect on h. A reduction in sap flow at night led to an increase in DeltaR for P. abies and L. decidua, but not for P. cembra.

  4. Understanding Hydroclimatic Extremes in Changing Monsoon Climates with Daily Bias Correction of CMIP5 Regional Climate Models over South Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, M. A.; Islam, A. S.; Akanda, A. S. S.

    2015-12-01

    The assessment of hydroclimatic and hydrometeorological extremes in changing climates has gathered special attention in the latest IPCC 5thAssessment Report (AR5). In monsoon regions such as South Asia, hydrologic modeling (i.e., stream flow assessment, water budget analysis, etc.) needs to incorporate such extremes to simulate retrospective and future scenarios. For information of past and future climate, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are preferred over global models due to their higher resolution and dynamic downscaling capabilities. Although the models perform well in representing the mean climate, they still possess significant biases, especially in daily hydrometeorological extremes over monsoon regions. Therefore, modification and correction of RCM results while preserving the extremes are crucial for hydrologic modeling in changing monsoon climates such as in South Asia. In this context, we generate a gridded observed product that preserve the hydroclimatic and hydrometeorological extremes for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin region in South Asia. A recent approach to bias correction is also proposed for correcting regional climate data in currently available future projections. The 30 year dataset (1971-2010) is used for comparing hydroclimatic and hydrometeorological extremes with APHRODITE and ERA-Interim Reanalysis products. The assessment has revealed that the new gridded data set provides much accurate maximum rainfall intensity, number of dry days, number of wet days and number of rainy days with greater than 500mm rainfall than any other available gridded data products. Using the gridded data sets, bias correctionis applied on CMIP5 multi-model historical datasets to evaluate RCM data performance over the region, which show great improvement in regional climate data for future hydrologic modeling scenarios and analyzing impacts of climate extremes.

  5. Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Jing-Cheng; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Yuefei; Zhang, Hua; Li, Zhong; Chen, Qiuwen

    2015-01-01

    Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. - Highlights: • We develop an improved hydrologic model considering the scaling effect of rainfall. • A

  6. Association of average daily alcohol consumption, binge drinking and alcohol-related social problems: results from the German Epidemiological Surveys of Substance Abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraus, Ludwig; Baumeister, Sebastian E; Pabst, Alexander; Orth, Boris

    2009-01-01

    The present study investigates the combined effect of average volume and binge drinking in predicting alcohol-related social problems and estimates the proportion of alcohol-related harms related to specific drinking patterns that could be prevented if transferred to a low-risk drinking group. Data came from the 1997 and 2000 German Epidemiological Survey of Substance Abuse (ESA) (age: 18-59 years; response rate: 65% and 51%, respectively). The pooled sample consisted of 12,668 current drinkers. By using nine categories of average daily intake and three groups of binge drinking, individuals were grouped into 22 mutual exclusive groups. Social problems were defined as the occurrence of 'repeated family quarrels', 'concern of family members or friends', 'loss of partner or friend' or 'physical fight or injury' in relation to alcohol. The effect of average daily intake is modified by binge drinking frequency such that the association was strongest in those with four or more binge drinking occasions during the last 30 days. Within each binge drinking group, adjusted relative risks (aRR) increased with alcohol intake up to a certain threshold and decreased thereafter. Overall, compared to the reference group (alcohol-related social problems than volume. Alcohol-related social harms especially among drinkers with moderate volume per day may be reduced by targeting prevention strategies towards episodic heavy drinkers.

  7. Modelling and short-term forecasting of daily peak power demand in Victoria using two-dimensional wavelet based SDP models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Truong, Nguyen-Vu; Wang, Liuping; Wong, Peter K.C.

    2008-01-01

    Power demand forecasting is of vital importance to the management and planning of power system operations which include generation, transmission, distribution, as well as system's security analysis and economic pricing processes. This paper concerns the modeling and short-term forecast of daily peak power demand in the state of Victoria, Australia. In this study, a two-dimensional wavelet based state dependent parameter (SDP) modelling approach is used to produce a compact mathematical model for this complex nonlinear dynamic system. In this approach, a nonlinear system is expressed by a set of linear regressive input and output terms (state variables) multiplied by the respective state dependent parameters that carry the nonlinearities in the form of 2-D wavelet series expansions. This model is identified based on historical data, descriptively representing the relationship and interaction between various components which affect the peak power demand of a certain day. The identified model has been used to forecast daily peak power demand in the state of Victoria, Australia in the time period from the 9th of August 2007 to the 24th of August 2007. With a MAPE (mean absolute prediction error) of 1.9%, it has clearly implied the effectiveness of the identified model. (author)

  8. The perfectionism model of binge eating: testing unique contributions, mediating mechanisms, and cross-cultural similarities using a daily diary methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherry, Simon B; Sabourin, Brigitte C; Hall, Peter A; Hewitt, Paul L; Flett, Gordon L; Gralnick, Tara M

    2014-12-01

    The perfectionism model of binge eating (PMOBE) is an integrative model explaining the link between perfectionism and binge eating. This model proposes socially prescribed perfectionism confers risk for binge eating by generating exposure to 4 putative binge triggers: interpersonal discrepancies, low interpersonal esteem, depressive affect, and dietary restraint. The present study addresses important gaps in knowledge by testing if these 4 binge triggers uniquely predict changes in binge eating on a daily basis and if daily variations in each binge trigger mediate the link between socially prescribed perfectionism and daily binge eating. Analyses also tested if proposed mediational models generalized across Asian and European Canadians. The PMOBE was tested in 566 undergraduate women using a 7-day daily diary methodology. Depressive affect predicted binge eating, whereas anxious affect did not. Each binge trigger uniquely contributed to binge eating on a daily basis. All binge triggers except for dietary restraint mediated the relationship between socially prescribed perfectionism and change in daily binge eating. Results suggested cross-cultural similarities, with the PMOBE applying to both Asian and European Canadian women. The present study advances understanding of the personality traits and the contextual conditions accompanying binge eating and provides an important step toward improving treatments for people suffering from eating binges and associated negative consequences.

  9. DAILY MEAL FREQUENCY OF SECONDARY SCHOOL STUDENTS FROM LJUBLJANA IN RELATION TO SOME OF THEIR OTHER NUTRITIONAL AND LIFE-STYLE CHARACTERISTICS AND BODY MASS INDEX – PRELIMINARY RESULTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mojca Gabrijelčič-Blenkuš

    2001-05-01

    Full Text Available Background. The recommended number of daily meals is three to five. The aim of this study was to establish the number of meals, daily consumed by secondary school students from Ljubljana, and the relationship with nutritional and other habits, including bad habits, demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the secondary school students and their body mass index.Methods. In 1999, an cross-section epidemiological study was performed on a proportional sample of 296 pupils attending the third class of Ljubljana secondary schools. The applied dietary data collection methods were the survey and the 24-hour dietary recall. The body mass index was calculated on the basis of the measured body height and body mass values. The Chi-square test, t-test, variance analysis and the multivariant linear regression method were used for the analysis.Results. The students consume 3.16 meals per day on average (boys 3.44, girls 2.87. The students who reported a smaller number of meals per day consume statistically significantly less fruit, vegetables, milk, milk products and fish. They take hot meals less frequently, consume less often all daily meals, their daily meals are of a poorer quality in respect to their composition, they eat less often their meals in a sitting position, they feel a greater difference in diet between working week days and weekends, their regular nourishment is more influenced by school obligations, they have poorer knowledge of healthy dietary practices, smoke more often, are less satisfied with their weight, are less physically active and girls sleep less at nights. The inverse proportional relationship between the number of daily meals and the body mass index was not statistically significant. The multivariant linear regression model explained the low variance percentage (R2 = 0.28.Conclusions. The average number of daily meals consumed by schoolboys is at the lower border of recommendations, while the average number of daily meals

  10. The Simulation of Daily Temperature Time Series from GCM Output. Part I: Comparison of Model Data with Observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palutikof, J. P.; Winkler, J. A.; Goodess, C. M.; Andresen, J. A.

    1997-10-01

    For climate change impact analyses, local scenarios of surface variables at the daily scales are frequently required. Empirical transfer functions are a widely used technique to generate scenarios from GCM data at these scales. For successful downscaling, the impact analyst should take into account certain considerations. First, it must be demonstrated that the GCM simulations of the required variable are unrealistic and therefore that downscaling is required. Second, it must be shown that the GCM simulations of the selected predictor variables are realistic. Where errors occur, attempts must be made to compensate for their effect on the transfer function-generated predictions or, where this is not possible, the effect on the transfer function-generated climate series must be understood. Third, the changes in the predictors between the control and perturbed simulation must be examined in the light of the implications for the change in the predicted variable. Finally, the effect of decisions made during the development of the transfer functions on the final result should be explored. This study, presented in two parts, addresses these considerations with respect to the development of local scenarios for daily maximum (TMAX) and minimum (TMIN) temperature for two sites, one in North America (Eau Claire, Michigan) and one in Europe (Alcantarilla, Spain).Part I confirms for a selected GCM that simulations of daily TMAX and TMIN, whether taken from the nearest land grid point, or obtained by interpolation to the site location, are inadequate. Differences between the GCM 1 × CO2 and observed temperature series arise because of a 0°C threshold in the model data. At both sites, variability is suppressed during periods affected by the threshold. The thresholds persist into the perturbed simulation, affecting not only GCM-predicted 2 × CO2 temperatures but also, because the duration and timing of the threshold effect changes in the perturbed simulation, the magnitude and

  11. A Bayesian modelling method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from global climate models and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schepen, Andrew; Zhao, Tongtiegang; Wang, Quan J.; Robertson, David E.

    2018-03-01

    Rainfall forecasts are an integral part of hydrological forecasting systems at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In seasonal forecasting, global climate models (GCMs) are now the go-to source for rainfall forecasts. For hydrological applications however, GCM forecasts are often biased and unreliable in uncertainty spread, and calibration is therefore required before use. There are sophisticated statistical techniques for calibrating monthly and seasonal aggregations of the forecasts. However, calibration of seasonal forecasts at the daily time step typically uses very simple statistical methods or climate analogue methods. These methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve unbiased, reliable and coherent forecasts of daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. In this study, we propose and evaluate a Rainfall Post-Processing method for Seasonal forecasts (RPP-S), which is based on the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach for calibrating daily forecasts and the Schaake Shuffle for connecting the daily ensemble members of different lead times. We apply the method to post-process ACCESS-S forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments across Australia and for 12 initialisation dates. RPP-S significantly reduces bias in raw forecasts and improves both skill and reliability. RPP-S forecasts are also more skilful and reliable than forecasts derived from ACCESS-S forecasts that have been post-processed using quantile mapping, especially for monthly and seasonal accumulations. Several opportunities to improve the robustness and skill of RPP-S are identified. The new RPP-S post-processed forecasts will be used in ensemble sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow applications.

  12. Calibration and Evaluation of Different Estimation Models of Daily Solar Radiation in Seasonally and Annual Time Steps in Shiraz Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Reza Fooladmand

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Solar radiation on the earth surface has a wide range of applications in hydrology, agriculture and meteorology. Solar radiation is an important parameter of estimated models of reference crop potential evapotranspiration such as the Penman–Monteith equation. Also, total sunshine hours are one of the most important factors affecting climate and environment, and its long-term variation is of much concern in climate studies. Reference crop potential evapotranspiration is one of the most important parts of water cycle in the nature but, direct measurement of this crop parameter is so difficult and not practical. Therefore, equations that can estimate the value of evapotranspiration only by using meteorological data are necessary. As mentioned before, the Penman–Monteith equation can be used for estimating reference crop potential evapotranspiration, however this equation needs solar radiation data, and the measurement of solar radiation is done in a limited numbers of weather stations in Iran, and also in Fars province, south of Iran. Since, the measurement of solar radiation is expensive, therefore many models have been derived for its estimation in different climates of the world., Many investigators also have been tried to estimate solar radiation for different locations of the world based on more simple measured weather data such as air temperature (minimum, maximum or mean and sunshine hours. Hence, the derived equations for estimating solar radiation based on other weather data can be used for estimating reference crop potential evapotranspiration with the Penman–Monteith equation. Materials and Methods: In this study, solar radiation was estimated in Shiraz, central part of the Fars province in south of Iran. For this purpose, the daily measured of solar radiation data in Shiraz synoptic station were used. Also, other needed weather data were used. All available data was for the years 2006 to 2010. Measured data of years

  13. Combining remote sensing and GIS climate modelling to estimate daily forest evapotranspiration in a Mediterranean mountain area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Cristóbal

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Evapotranspiration monitoring allows us to assess the environmental stress on forest and agricultural ecosystems. Nowadays, Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems (GIS are the main techniques used for calculating evapotranspiration at catchment and regional scales. In this study we present a methodology, based on the energy balance equation (B-method, that combines remote sensing imagery with GIS-based climate modelling to estimate daily evapotranspiration (ETd for several dates between 2003 and 2005. The three main variables needed to compute ETd were obtained as follows: (i Land surface temperature by means of the Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-7 ETM+ thermal band, (ii air temperature by means of multiple regression analysis and spatial interpolation from meteorological ground stations data at satellite pass, and (iii net radiation by means of the radiative balance. We calculated ETd using remote sensing data at different spatial and temporal scales (Landsat-7 ETM+, Landsat-5 TM and TERRA/AQUA MODIS, with a spatial resolution of 60, 120 and 1000 m, respectively and combining three different approaches to calculate the B parameter, which represents an average bulk conductance for the daily-integrated sensible heat flux. We then compared these estimates with sap flow measurements from a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L. stand in a Mediterranean mountain area. This procedure allowed us to better understand the limitations of ETd modelling and how it needs to be improved, especially in heterogeneous forest areas. The method using Landsat data resulted in a good agreement, R2 test of 0.89, with a mean RMSE value of about 0.6 mm day−1 and an estimation error of ±30 %. The poor agreement obtained using TERRA/AQUA MODIS, with a mean RMSE value of 1.8 and 2.4 mm day−1 and an estimation error of about ±57 and 50 %, respectively. This

  14. The daily gluten intake in relatives of patients with coeliac disease compared with that of the general Dutch population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    vanOverbeek, FM; UilDieterman, IGA; Mol, IW; KohlerBrands, L; Heymans, HSA; Mulder, CJJ

    1997-01-01

    Background: It has been suggested that the amount of gluten intake in populations offers an explanation for differences in the epidemiology of coeliac disease. Investigations into first-degree relatives of coeliac disease patients have often shown that relatives exhibit intermediate features of

  15. Development of total maximum daily loads for bacteria impaired watershed using the comprehensive hydrology and water quality simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sang M; Brannan, Kevin M; Zeckoski, Rebecca W; Benham, Brian L

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this study was to develop bacteria total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) for the Hardware River watershed in the Commonwealth of Virginia, USA. The TMDL program is an integrated watershed management approach required by the Clean Water Act. The TMDLs were developed to meet Virginia's water quality standard for bacteria at the time, which stated that the calendar-month geometric mean concentration of Escherichia coli should not exceed 126 cfu/100 mL, and that no single sample should exceed a concentration of 235 cfu/100 mL. The bacteria impairment TMDLs were developed using the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF). The hydrology and water quality components of HSPF were calibrated and validated using data from the Hardware River watershed to ensure that the model adequately simulated runoff and bacteria concentrations. The calibrated and validated HSPF model was used to estimate the contributions from the various bacteria sources in the Hardware River watershed to the in-stream concentration. Bacteria loads were estimated through an extensive source characterization process. Simulation results for existing conditions indicated that the majority of the bacteria came from livestock and wildlife direct deposits and pervious lands. Different source reduction scenarios were evaluated to identify scenarios that meet both the geometric mean and single sample maximum E. coli criteria with zero violations. The resulting scenarios required extreme and impractical reductions from livestock and wildlife sources. Results from studies similar to this across Virginia partially contributed to a reconsideration of the standard's applicability to TMDL development.

  16. Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jordan R.; Case, Jonathan L.; Molthan, Andrew L.

    2011-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center develops new products and techniques that can be used in operational meteorology. The majority of these products are derived from NASA polar-orbiting satellite imagery from the Earth Observing System (EOS) platforms. One such product is a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is produced from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the new SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on land surface models apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. The second phase of the project is to examine the impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate WRF model simulations were made for individual severe weather case days using the NCEP GVF (control) and SPoRT GVF (experimental), with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results in these case studies, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and lower direct surface heating, which typically resulted in lower (higher) predicted 2-m temperatures (2-m dewpoint temperatures). The opposite was true

  17. A Conceptual Model for Teaching the Relationship of Daily Life and Human Environmental Impact to Ecological Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyner, Yael

    2013-01-01

    In the general activity of daily life, it is easy to miss our dependency on the Earth's ecology. At the same time that people are living apparently separate from the environment, our impact on the Earth is increasing. This study seeks to understand how teachers can bridge this persistent disconnect of daily life from ecology and human impact.…

  18. Mucociliary clearance and its relation with the level of physical activity in daily life in healthy smokers and nonsmokers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Proença

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: To investigate the relationship between mucociliary transport and physical activity in daily life (PADL in smokers and nonsmokers. Methods: Fifty-two current smokers were submitted to an assessment of mucociliary transport (saccharin transit time, STT, carbon monoxide levels in the exhaled air, lung function and smoking history. In addition, subjects kept a pedometer worn at the waist for six days in order to determine their level of PADL (steps/day. The tests were also performed on 30 matched healthy nonsmokers who served as control group. Results: Light smokers (≤15 cigarettes/day had a STT of 9 (7–11 min (median [confidence interval], which was similar to nonsmokers (8 [8–11] min; p = 0.8. Both moderate (16–25 cigarettes/day and heavy (>25 cigarettes/day smokers had a significantly higher STT (13 [11–17] min and 13 [10–21] min, respectively than nonsmokers and light smokers (p  0.05 for all. In the general group of smokers, STT was not significantly correlated with PADL, pack/years index, years of smoking or age (r  0.09 for all. There was significant negative correlation between STT and PADL only in light smokers (r = −0.55; p = 0.02 and nonsmokers (r = −0.42; p = 0.02, but not in moderate and heavy smokers. Conclusion: In light smokers and non-smokers, better mucociliary function is associated to higher daily physical activity level, as opposed to the decreased mucociliary function observed in smokers, i.e., those with moderate and heavy cigarette consumption. Resumo: Objetivos: Investigar a relação entre o transporte mucociliar e a atividade física na vida diária (AFVD em fumantes e não fumantes. Métodos: Cinquenta e dois fumantes foram submetidos à avaliação do transporte mucociliar (Tempo de Trânsito de Sacarina, TTS, dos níveis de monóxido de carbono no ar expirado, da função pulmonar e do hist

  19. WRITINGS RELATED WITH CORONARY ARTERY DISEASE AND RISK FACTORS WHICH WERE PRINTED IN TEN NATIONAL DAILY NEWSPAPER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hakan ALTINTAS

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available This study is a descriptive epidemiological study which was conducted in order to determine various properties of writings related to coronary artery disease (CAD and its risk factors in 10 top selling national newspapers based on newspaper listing. Most of the writings related to CAD and its risk factors composed less than 0.20%of total surface area of a newspaper. In 21.9%(16 of such writings, there were no pictures, and presentation techniques were not effective. When evaluated for scientific truth, 21.9%(16 of the writings were composed of false or partialy true writings. It was realized that newspapers under investigation did not spare enough space for writings related to CAD and its risk factors. [TAF Prev Med Bull 2005; 4(5.000: 253-264

  20. Personal meaning in relation to daily functioning of a patient in physical therapy practice: narratives of a patient, a family member, and physical therapist.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oosting, Ellen; Dronkers, Jaap; Hoogeboom, Thomas; van Meeteren, Nico; Speelman, Willem Marie

    2018-05-01

    To get insight into personal meaning of a person involved in a physical therapy intervention. Mrs. A, a 76-year-old woman is referred to a physical therapist (PT) for assessment of functioning and training before total hip arthroplasty (THA). The patient, her daughter, and PT were asked to write a story about their daily life. Stories were analyzed according to the narrative scheme based on a method to find meaning in daily life, which consists of four phases: 1. Motivation; 2. Competences; 3. Performance; and 4. Mrs. A was mainly motivated by her will to do enjoyable social activities and stay independent. Although she tried her best to undertake activities (performance) that made her proud (evaluation), her pain and physical limitations were anti-competences that motivated her to attend healthcare. Although the PT seemed to be aware of personal participation goals, her main motivation was to improve and evaluate functions and activities. The daughter was motivated by good relationships and did not see herself as informal caregiver. The narrative method was a valuable tool to clarify motivations, competences, and values in the process of creating personal meaning related to functioning. This knowledge could help caregivers in applying patient-centered goal-setting and treatment on a participation level. Implications for rehabilitation Personal meaning of people's functioning within their daily context can be clarified from daily life stories. This case report demonstrates that motivations and goals may differ between patient and therapist; the PT seems to focus on improving and evaluating functions and activities, while the patient seems to focus her motivations and personal meaning on participation. This approach may help in patient-centered goal-setting at the level of activities and participation.

  1. Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkers, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2002-01-01

    To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems,

  2. Selecting the optimal method to calculate daily global reference potential evaporation from CFSR reanalysis data for application in a hydrological model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. C. Sperna Weiland

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Potential evaporation (PET is one of the main inputs of hydrological models. Yet, there is limited consensus on which PET equation is most applicable in hydrological climate impact assessments. In this study six different methods to derive global scale reference PET daily time series from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR data are compared: Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor and original and re-calibrated versions of the Hargreaves and Blaney-Criddle method. The calculated PET time series are (1 evaluated against global monthly Penman-Monteith PET time series calculated from CRU data and (2 tested on their usability for modeling of global discharge cycles.

    A major finding is that for part of the investigated basins the selection of a PET method may have only a minor influence on the resulting river flow. Within the hydrological model used in this study the bias related to the PET method tends to decrease while going from PET, AET and runoff to discharge calculations. However, the performance of individual PET methods appears to be spatially variable, which stresses the necessity to select the most accurate and spatially stable PET method. The lowest root mean squared differences and the least significant deviations (95% significance level between monthly CFSR derived PET time series and CRU derived PET were obtained for a cell-specific re-calibrated Blaney-Criddle equation. However, results show that this re-calibrated form is likely to be unstable under changing climate conditions and less reliable for the calculation of daily time series. Although often recommended, the Penman-Monteith equation applied to the CFSR data did not outperform the other methods in a evaluation against PET derived with the Penman-Monteith equation from CRU data. In arid regions (e.g. Sahara, central Australia, US deserts, the equation resulted in relatively low PET values and, consequently, led to relatively high discharge values for dry basins (e

  3. Daily intake of Jeju groundwater improves the skin condition of the model mouse for human atopic dermatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Akane; Jung, Kyungsook; Matsuda, Akira; Jang, Hyosun; Kajiwara, Naoki; Amagai, Yosuke; Oida, Kumiko; Ahn, Ginnae; Ohmori, Keitaro; Kang, Kyung-goo; Matsuda, Hiroshi

    2013-03-01

    Drinking water is an important nutrient for human health. The mineral ingredients included in drinking water may affect the physical condition of people. Various kinds of natural water are in circulation as bottled water in developed countries; however, its influence on clinical conditions of patients with certain diseases has not been fully evaluated. In this study, effects of the natural groundwater from Jeju Island on clinical symptoms and skin barrier function in atopic dermatitis (AD) were evaluated. NC/Tnd mice, a model for human AD, with moderate to severe dermatitis were used. Mice were given different natural groundwater or tap water for 8 weeks from 4 weeks of age. Clinical skin severity scores were recorded every week. Scratching analysis and measurement of transepidermal water loss were performed every other week. The pathological condition of the dorsal skin was evaluated histologically. Real-time polymerase chain reaction analysis was performed for cytokine expression in the affected skin. The epidermal hyperplasia and allergic inflammation were reduced in atopic mice supplied with Jeju groundwater when compared to those supplied with tap water or other kinds of natural groundwater. The increase in scratching behavior with the aggravation of clinical severity of dermatitis was favorably controlled. Moreover, transepidermal water loss that reflects skin barrier function was recovered. The early inflammation and hypersensitivity in the atopic skin was alleviated in mice supplied with Jeju groundwater, suggesting its profitable potential on the daily care of patients with skin troubles including AD. © 2013 Japanese Dermatological Association.

  4. Daily precipitation grids for Austria since 1961—development and evaluation of a spatial dataset for hydroclimatic monitoring and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiebl, Johann; Frei, Christoph

    2017-03-01

    Spatial precipitation datasets that are long-term consistent, highly resolved and extend over several decades are an increasingly popular basis for modelling and monitoring environmental processes and planning tasks in hydrology, agriculture, energy resources management, etc. Here, we present a grid dataset of daily precipitation for Austria meant to promote such applications. It has a grid spacing of 1 km, extends back till 1961 and is continuously updated. It is constructed with the classical two-tier analysis, involving separate interpolations for mean monthly precipitation and daily relative anomalies. The former was accomplished by kriging with topographic predictors as external drift utilising 1249 stations. The latter is based on angular distance weighting and uses 523 stations. The input station network was kept largely stationary over time to avoid artefacts on long-term consistency. Example cases suggest that the new analysis is at least as plausible as previously existing datasets. Cross-validation and comparison against experimental high-resolution observations (WegenerNet) suggest that the accuracy of the dataset depends on interpretation. Users interpreting grid point values as point estimates must expect systematic overestimates for light and underestimates for heavy precipitation as well as substantial random errors. Grid point estimates are typically within a factor of 1.5 from in situ observations. Interpreting grid point values as area mean values, conditional biases are reduced and the magnitude of random errors is considerably smaller. Together with a similar dataset of temperature, the new dataset (SPARTACUS) is an interesting basis for modelling environmental processes, studying climate change impacts and monitoring the climate of Austria.

  5. Daily precipitation grids for Austria since 1961—development and evaluation of a spatial dataset for hydroclimatic monitoring and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiebl, Johann; Frei, Christoph

    2018-04-01

    Spatial precipitation datasets that are long-term consistent, highly resolved and extend over several decades are an increasingly popular basis for modelling and monitoring environmental processes and planning tasks in hydrology, agriculture, energy resources management, etc. Here, we present a grid dataset of daily precipitation for Austria meant to promote such applications. It has a grid spacing of 1 km, extends back till 1961 and is continuously updated. It is constructed with the classical two-tier analysis, involving separate interpolations for mean monthly precipitation and daily relative anomalies. The former was accomplished by kriging with topographic predictors as external drift utilising 1249 stations. The latter is based on angular distance weighting and uses 523 stations. The input station network was kept largely stationary over time to avoid artefacts on long-term consistency. Example cases suggest that the new analysis is at least as plausible as previously existing datasets. Cross-validation and comparison against experimental high-resolution observations (WegenerNet) suggest that the accuracy of the dataset depends on interpretation. Users interpreting grid point values as point estimates must expect systematic overestimates for light and underestimates for heavy precipitation as well as substantial random errors. Grid point estimates are typically within a factor of 1.5 from in situ observations. Interpreting grid point values as area mean values, conditional biases are reduced and the magnitude of random errors is considerably smaller. Together with a similar dataset of temperature, the new dataset (SPARTACUS) is an interesting basis for modelling environmental processes, studying climate change impacts and monitoring the climate of Austria.

  6. Health beliefs affect the correct replacement of daily disposable contact lenses: Predicting compliance with the Health Belief Model and the Theory of Planned Behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livi, Stefano; Zeri, Fabrizio; Baroni, Rossella

    2017-02-01

    To assess the compliance of Daily Disposable Contact Lenses (DDCLs) wearers with replacing lenses at a manufacturer-recommended replacement frequency. To evaluate the ability of two different Health Behavioural Theories (HBT), The Health Belief Model (HBM) and The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), in predicting compliance. A multi-centre survey was conducted using a questionnaire completed anonymously by contact lens wearers during the purchase of DDCLs. Three hundred and fifty-four questionnaires were returned. The survey comprised 58.5% females and 41.5% males (mean age 34±12years). Twenty-three percent of respondents were non-compliant with manufacturer-recommended replacement frequency (re-using DDCLs at least once). The main reason for re-using DDCLs was "to save money" (35%). Predictions of compliance behaviour (past behaviour or future intentions) on the basis of the two HBT was investigated through logistic regression analysis: both TPB factors (subjective norms and perceived behavioural control) were significant (preplacement is widespread, affecting 1 out of 4 Italian wearers. Results from the TPB model show that the involvement of persons socially close to the wearers (subjective norms) and the improvement of the procedure of behavioural control of daily replacement (behavioural control) are of paramount importance in improving compliance. With reference to the HBM, it is important to warn DDCLs wearers of the severity of a contact-lens-related eye infection, and to underline the possibility of its prevention. Copyright © 2016 British Contact Lens Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Models and relations in economics and econometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    1999-01-01

    Based on a money market analysis using the cointegrated VAR model the paper demonstrates some possible pitfalls in macroeconomic inference as a direct consequence of inadequate stochastic model formulation. A number of questions related to concepts such as empirical and theoretical steady-states,...

  8. Models and relations in economics and econometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    1999-01-01

    Based on a money market analysis using the cointegrated VAR model the paper demonstrates some possible pitfalls in macroeconomic inference as a direct consequence of inadequate stochastic model formulation. A number of questions related to concepts such as empirical and theoretical steady...

  9. Relating business modelling and enterprise architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meertens, Lucas Onno

    2013-01-01

    This thesis proposes a methodology for creating business models, evaluating them, and relating them to enterprise architecture. The methodology consists of several steps, leading from an organization’s current situation to a target situation, via business models and enterprise architecture.

  10. Health professionals perceive teamwork with relatives as an obstacle in their daily work - a focus group interview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Jannie; Broholm, Malene; Rosenberg, Jacob

    2017-01-01

    of this teamwork. Methods: The study was descriptive and exploratory and had a qualitative design with a phenomenological/hermeneutic orientation for the interviews. Focus group was the chosen methodology. The study comprised 19 health professionals in four focus groups. Results: Two themes emerged from...... makes it difficult for them to integrate relatives more and see them as participants in a natural teamwork for the benefit of the patient....

  11. Geostatistical interpolation of daily rainfall at catchment scale: the use of several variogram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments, Belgium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ly

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is of great importance for hydrological modelling. Geostatistical methods (kriging are widely applied in spatial interpolation from point measurement to continuous surfaces. The first step in kriging computation is the semi-variogram modelling which usually used only one variogram model for all-moment data. The objective of this paper was to develop different algorithms of spatial interpolation for daily rainfall on 1 km2 regular grids in the catchment area and to compare the results of geostatistical and deterministic approaches. This study leaned on 30-yr daily rainfall data of 70 raingages in the hilly landscape of the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments in Belgium (2908 km2. This area lies between 35 and 693 m in elevation and consists of river networks, which are tributaries of the Meuse River. For geostatistical algorithms, seven semi-variogram models (logarithmic, power, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, spherical and penta-spherical were fitted to daily sample semi-variogram on a daily basis. These seven variogram models were also adopted to avoid negative interpolated rainfall. The elevation, extracted from a digital elevation model, was incorporated into multivariate geostatistics. Seven validation raingages and cross validation were used to compare the interpolation performance of these algorithms applied to different densities of raingages. We found that between the seven variogram models used, the Gaussian model was the most frequently best fit. Using seven variogram models can avoid negative daily rainfall in ordinary kriging. The negative estimates of kriging were observed for convective more than stratiform rain. The performance of the different methods varied slightly according to the density of raingages, particularly between 8 and 70 raingages but it was much different for interpolation using 4 raingages. Spatial interpolation with the geostatistical and

  12. On a relation of geomagnetic activity, solar wind velocity and irregularity of daily rotation of the Earth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalinin, Yu.D.; Kiselev, V.M.

    1980-01-01

    A possibility of the presence of statistic relation between the changes of the Earth rotation regime and the mean velocity of solar wind is discussed. The ratio between the solar wind velocity observed and planetary index of geomagnetic activity am is used to determine the annual average values of solar wind velocity beyond the twentieth cycle of solar activity. The restored changes of solar wind velocity are compared with solar conditioned variations of the Earth day duration and it is shown that the correspondence takes place only at frequencies lower the frequency of 11-year cycle [ru

  13. Daily and circadian rhythms of neurotransmitters and related compounds in the hypothalamic suprachiasmatic nuclei of a diurnal vertebrate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnone, Maria Chiara; Bertolucci, Cristiano; Piazza, Francesca; Foà, Augusto

    2003-05-23

    By using immunocytochemistry we tested whether neurotransmitters, and enzymes specific to neurotransmitters synthesis are rhythmically expressed in the suprachiasmatic nuclei of the hypothalamus of Ruin lizards Podarcis sicula either kept in light-dark cycles or constant darkness. Within the suprachiasmatic nuclei, prominent 24 h rhythms under 12:12 light-dark cycles were found for vasoactive intestinal polypeptide (VIP) and for tyrosine hydroxylase (TH). Peaks of both VIP and TH fell in the light phase of the cycle. Rhythmic expression of TH persisted under constant temperature and darkness, demonstrating the existence of circadian rhythms of TH in the suprachiasmatic nuclei. No rhythmic expression of neurotransmitters and related compounds was found in the periventricular nuclei, the supraoptic nuclei, and the rest of the hypothalamus. Our data are the first demonstration of rhythmic expression of neurotransmitters and related compounds in the suprachiasmatic nuclei of a non-mammalian vertebrate. The demonstration of a diurnal peak of VIP in a diurnal reptile-vs. nocturnal peak of VIP typical of nocturnal mammals-provides new information for comparative studies on the circadian physiology of the suprachiasmatic nuclei across vertebrate classes and their adaptation strategies to different temporal niches.

  14. AirMOSS: L4 Daily Modeled Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), AirMOSS sites, 2012-2014

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides Level 4 daily estimates of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) of CO2 at a spatial resolution of 30 arc-seconds (~1 km) for seven of the sites...

  15. Metabolic, endocrine and appetite-related responses to acute and daily milk snack consumption in healthy, adolescent males.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Benjamin P; Stevenson, Emma J; Rumbold, Penny L S

    2017-01-01

    Comprising of two experiments, this study assessed the metabolic, endocrine and appetite-related responses to acute and chronic milk consumption in adolescent males (15-18 y). Eleven adolescents [mean ± SD age: 16.5 ± 0.9 y; BMI: 23.3 ± 3.3 kg/m 2 ] participated in the acute experiment and completed two laboratory visits (milk vs. fruit-juice) in a randomized crossover design, separated by 7-d. Seventeen adolescents [age: 16.1 ± 0.9 y; BMI: 21.8 ± 3.7 kg/m 2 ] completed the chronic experiment. For the chronic experiment, a parallel design with two groups was used. Participants were randomly allocated and consumed milk (n = 9) or fruit-juice (n = 8) for 28-d, completing laboratory visits on the first (baseline, day-0) and last day (follow-up, day-28) of the intervention phase. On laboratory visits (for both experiments), measures of appetite, metabolism and endocrine responses were assessed at regular intervals. In addition, eating behavior was quantified by ad libitum assessment under laboratory conditions and in the free-living environment by weighed food record. Acute milk intake stimulated glucagon (P = 0.027 [16.8 pg mL; 95% CI: 2.4, 31.3]) and reduced ad libitum energy intake relative to fruit-juice (P = 0.048 [-651.3 kJ; 95% CI: -1294.1, -8.6]), but was comparable in the free-living environment. Chronic milk intake reduced free-living energy intake at the follow-up visit compared to baseline (P = 0.013 [-1910.9 kJ; 95% CI: -554.6, -3267.2]), whereas the opposite was apparent for fruit-juice. Relative to baseline, chronic milk intake increased the insulin response to both breakfast (P = 0.031) and mid-morning milk consumption (P = 0.050) whilst attenuating blood glucose (P = 0.025). Together, these findings suggest milk consumption impacts favorably on eating behavior in adolescent males, potentially through integrated endocrine responses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Daily frustration, cognitive coping and coping efficacy in adolescent headache: a daily diary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massey, Emma K; Garnefski, Nadia; Gebhardt, Winifred A; van der Leeden, Rien

    2009-09-01

    To investigate both concurrent and prospective relationships between daily frustration, cognitive coping and coping efficacy on the one hand and daily headache occurrence on the other. Eighty-nine adolescents aged 13-21 completed an online daily diary for 3 weeks. Data were analyzed using multilevel modeling. Daily frustration of goal pursuits was significantly related to both same day and next day headache occurrence. Coping efficacy beliefs were significantly related to lower next day headache occurrence (no same day relationship was found). None of the cognitive coping strategies used in response to daily frustration were related to headache occurrence on the same or next day. Daily frustration to goal pursuit is suggested to be an important stressor contributing to concurrent and prospective headache occurrence. Furthermore, the extent to which adolescents believe in their ability to cope also appears to influence experience of subsequent headache. Further prospective studies are necessary to confirm these findings and to further unravel the possibly reciprocal relations between these factors. These findings offer useful insights into the dynamic interplay between daily stressful experiences and headache in youths.

  17. GOAL: an inverse toxicity-related algorithm for daily clinical practice decision making in advanced kidney cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bracarda, Sergio; Sisani, Michele; Marrocolo, Francesca; Hamzaj, Alketa; del Buono, Sabrina; De Simone, Valeria

    2014-03-01

    Metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC), considered almost an orphan disease only six years ago, appears today a very dynamic pathology. The recently switch to the actual overcrowded scenario defined by seven active drugs has driven physicians to an incertitude status, due to difficulties in defining the best possible treatment strategy. This situation is mainly related to the absence of predictive biomarkers for any available or new therapy. Such issue, associated with the nearly absence of published face-to-face studies, draws a complex picture frame. In order to solve this dilemma, decisional algorithms tailored on drug efficacy data and patient profile are recognized as very useful tools. These approaches try to select the best therapy suitable for every patient profile. On the contrary, the present review has the "goal" to suggest a reverse approach: basing on the pivotal studies, post-marketing surveillance reports and our experience, we defined the polarizing toxicity (the most frequent toxicity in the light of clinical experience) for every single therapy, creating a new algorithm able to identify the patient profile, mainly comorbidities, unquestionably unsuitable for each single agent presently available for either the first- or the second-line therapy. The GOAL inverse decision-making algorithm, proposed at the end of this review, allows to select the best therapy for mRCC by reducing the risk of limiting toxicities. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Stress-related expectations about smoking cessation and future quit attempts and abstinence - a prospective study in daily smokers who wish to quit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skov-Ettrup, Lise Skrubbeltrang; Egan, Kia Kejlskov; Dalum, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Smokers who wish to quit may refrain from doing so if they expect to experience more stress after haven given up. We test if stress-related expectations about smoking cessation are associated with quit attempts and abstinence among smokers who are motivated to quit. The study included 1809 daily...... after 3, 8 and 14 months. We found that the association between expecting to be more stressed if giving up smoking differed between participants who had previously attempted to quit and those who had not: In participants who previously attempted to quit (47%), expecting to be more stressed......, expectations about stress were not associated with abstinence. Results indicate that expectations about stress in relation to smoking cessation are an important determinant of cessation in smokers who previously attempted to quit. Addressing stress and how to handle stressful situations may increase...

  19. Daily physical-rest activities in relation to nutritional state, metabolism, and quality of life in cancer patients with progressive cachexia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fouladiun, Marita; Körner, Ulla; Gunnebo, Lena; Sixt-Ammilon, Petra; Bosaeus, Ingvar; Lundholm, Kent

    2007-11-01

    To evaluate daily physical-rest activities in cancer patients losing weight in relation to disease progression. Physical activity-rest rhythms were measured (ActiGraph, armband sensor from BodyMedia) in relation to body composition (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry), energy metabolism, exercise capacity (walking test), and self-scored quality of life (SF-36, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale) in weight-losing outpatients with systemic cancer (71 +/- 2 years, n = 53). Well-nourished, age-matched, and previously hospitalized non-cancer patients served as controls (74 +/- 4 years, n = 8). Middle-aged healthy individuals were used as reference subjects (49 +/- 5 years, n = 23). Quality of life was globally reduced in patients with cancer (P sleep and bed-rest activities did not differ between patients with cancer and age-matched non-cancer patients. Spontaneous physical activity correlated weakly with maximum exercise capacity in univariate analysis (r = 0.41, P < 0.01). Multivariate analysis showed that spontaneous physical activity was related to weight loss, blood hemoglobin concentration, C-reactive protein, and to subjectively scored items of physical functioning and bodily pain (SF-36; P < 0.05-0.004). Anxiety and depression were not related to spontaneous physical activity. Patient survival was predicted only by weight loss and serum albumin levels (P < 0.01), although there was no such prediction for spontaneous physical activity. Daily physical-rest activities represent variables which probably reflect complex mental physiologic and metabolic interactions. Thus, activity-rest monitoring provides a new dimension in the evaluation of medical and drug interventions during palliative treatment of patients with cancer.

  20. A daily herd Markov-chain model to study the reproductive and economic impact of reproductive programs combining timed artificial insemination and estrus detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giordano, J O; Kalantari, A S; Fricke, P M; Wiltbank, M C; Cabrera, V E

    2012-09-01

    Our objective was to compare the economic and reproductive performance of programs combining timed artificial insemination (TAI) and different levels of AI after estrus detection (ED) using a daily Markov-chain model. A dairy herd was modeled with every cow following daily probabilistic events of aging, replacement, mortality, pregnancy, pregnancy loss, and calving. The probability of pregnancy depended on the combination of probability of insemination and conception rate (CR). All nonpregnant cows had a probability of pregnancy between the end of the voluntary waiting period and days in milk cutoff for AI. After the cutoff, cows were labeled as do not breed and replaced when milk production was below a minimum milk threshold. A similar model was created to represent a replacement heifer herd to simulate and adjust the supply and demand of replacements. The net value (NV) of a program was the sum of milk income over feed cost, replacement and mortality cost, income from newborns, and reproductive costs. The model was used to compare the NV of 19 programs. One program used 100% TAI (42% CR for first TAI and 30% for second-and-later services), whereas the other programs combined TAI with ED. The proportion of cows receiving AI after ED for the combined programs ranged from 30 to 80%, with levels of CR of 25, 30, and 35%. As the proportion of cows receiving AI after ED increased, the CR of cows receiving TAI decreased. The combined programs with CR of 35% for cows receiving AI after ED had the greatest NV and reproductive performance at all levels of ED. The program using 100% TAI had greater NV and better reproductive performance than all programs with 25% CR after ED inseminations, whereas it had very similar performance to combined programs with up to 60% of cows receiving AI after ED and 30% CR. The factor with the greatest relative contribution to the differences among programs was income over feed cost, followed by replacement and reproductive costs. Adjusting

  1. Using the Enhanced Daily Load Stimulus Model to Quantify the Mechanical Load and Bone Mineral Density Changes Experienced by Crew Members on the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genc, K. O.; Gopalakrishnan, R.; Kuklis, M. M.; Maender, C. C.; Rice, A. J.; Cavanagh, P. R.

    2009-01-01

    Despite the use of exercise countermeasures during long-duration space missions, bone mineral density (BMD) and predicted bone strength of astronauts continue to show decreases in the lower extremities and spine. This site-specific bone adaptation is most likely caused by the effects of microgravity on the mechanical loading environment of the crew member. There is, therefore, a need to quantify the mechanical loading experienced on Earth and on-orbit to define the effect of a given "dose" of loading on bone homeostasis. Gene et al. recently proposed an enhanced DLS (EDLS) model that, when used with entire days of in-shoe forces, takes into account recently developed theories on the importance of factors such as saturation, recovery, and standing and their effects on the osteogenic response of bone to daily physical activity. This algorithm can also quantify the tinting and type of activity (sit/unload, stand, walk, run or other loaded activity) performed throughout the day. The purpose of the current study was to use in-shoe force measurements from entire typical work days on Earth and on-orbit in order to quantify the type and amount of loading experienced by crew members. The specific aim was to use these measurements as inputs into the EDLS model to determine activity timing/type and the mechanical "dose" imparted on the musculoskeletal system of crew members and relate this dose to changes in bone homeostasis.

  2. Daily Interpersonal and Affective Dynamics in Personality Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Aidan G.C.; Hopwood, Christopher J.; Simms, Leonard J.

    2015-01-01

    In this naturalistic study we adopt the lens of interpersonal theory to examine between-and within-person differences in dynamic processes of daily affect and interpersonal behaviors among individuals (N = 101) previously diagnosed with personality disorders who completed daily diaries over the course of 100 days. Dispositional ratings of interpersonal problems and measures of daily stress were used as predictors of daily shifts in interpersonal behavior and affect in multilevel models. Results indicate that ~40%–50% of the variance in interpersonal behavior and affect is due to daily fluctuations, which are modestly related to dispositional measures of interpersonal problems but strongly related to daily stress. The findings support conceptions of personality disorders as a dynamic form of psychopathology involving the individuals interacting with and regulating in response to the contextual features of their environment. PMID:26200849

  3. Mechanical Models of Fault-Related Folding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, A. M.

    2003-01-09

    The subject of the proposed research is fault-related folding and ground deformation. The results are relevant to oil-producing structures throughout the world, to understanding of damage that has been observed along and near earthquake ruptures, and to earthquake-producing structures in California and other tectonically-active areas. The objectives of the proposed research were to provide both a unified, mechanical infrastructure for studies of fault-related foldings and to present the results in computer programs that have graphical users interfaces (GUIs) so that structural geologists and geophysicists can model a wide variety of fault-related folds (FaRFs).

  4. Modeling a Longitudinal Relational Research Data Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Michelle D. Hunt

    2010-01-01

    A study was conducted to propose a research-based model for a longitudinal data research system that addressed recommendations from a synthesis of literature related to: (1) needs reported by the U.S. Department of Education, (2) the twelve mandatory elements that define federally approved state longitudinal data systems (SLDS), (3) the…

  5. Models of Man in Industrial Relations Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Bruce E.; And Others

    1989-01-01

    Kaufman attempts to identify essential characteristics that distinguish behavioral from nonbehavioral research in industrial relations. He argues that they are distinguished by the psychological model of man that is contained in the theoretical framework used to deduce or test hypotheses. Comments from Lewin, Mincer, and Cummings with Kaufman's…

  6. Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2003-01-01

    To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems, on

  7. Inter-daily variability of a strong thermally-driven wind system over the Atacama Desert of South America: synoptic forcing and short-term predictability using the GFS global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacques-Coper, Martín; Falvey, Mark; Muñoz, Ricardo C.

    2015-07-01

    Crucial aspects of a strong thermally-driven wind system in the Atacama Desert in northern Chile during the extended austral winter season (May-September) are studied using 2 years of measurement data from the Sierra Gorda 80-m meteorological mast (SGO, 22° 56' 24″ S; 69° 7' 58″ W, 2,069 m above sea level (a.s.l.)). Daily cycles of atmospheric variables reveal a diurnal (nocturnal) regime, with northwesterly (easterly) flow and maximum mean wind speed of 8 m/s (13 m/s) on average. These distinct regimes are caused by pronounced topographic conditions and the diurnal cycle of the local radiative balance. Wind speed extreme events of each regime are negatively correlated at the inter-daily time scale: High diurnal wind speed values are usually observed together with low nocturnal wind speed values and vice versa. The associated synoptic conditions indicate that upper-level troughs at the coastline of southwestern South America reinforce the diurnal northwesterly wind, whereas mean undisturbed upper-level conditions favor the development of the nocturnal easterly flow. We analyze the skill of the numerical weather model Global Forecast System (GFS) in predicting wind speed at SGO. Although forecasted wind speeds at 800 hPa do show the diurnal and nocturnal phases, observations at 80 m are strongly underestimated by the model. This causes a pronounced daily cycle of root-mean-squared error (RMSE) and bias in the forecasts. After applying a simple Model Output Statistics (MOS) post-processing, we achieve a good representation of the wind speed intra-daily and inter-daily variability, a first step toward reducing the uncertainties related to potential wind energy projects in the region.

  8. Relating Derived Relations as a Model of Analogical Reasoning: Reaction Times and Event-Related Potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes-Holmes, Dermot; Regan, Donal; Barnes-Holmes, Yvonne; Commins, Sean; Walsh, Derek; Stewart, Ian; Smeets, Paul M.; Whelan, Robert; Dymond, Simon

    2005-01-01

    The current study aimed to test a Relational Frame Theory (RFT) model of analogical reasoning based on the relating of derived same and derived difference relations. Experiment 1 recorded reaction time measures of similar-similar (e.g., "apple is to orange as dog is to cat") versus different-different (e.g., "he is to his brother as…

  9. Daily Streamflow Predictions in an Ungauged Watershed in Northern California Using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS): Calibration Challenges when nearby Gauged Watersheds are Hydrologically Dissimilar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhakal, A. S.; Adera, S.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate daily streamflow prediction in ungauged watersheds with sparse information is challenging. The ability of a hydrologic model calibrated using nearby gauged watersheds to predict streamflow accurately depends on hydrologic similarities between the gauged and ungauged watersheds. This study examines daily streamflow predictions using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) for the largely ungauged San Antonio Creek watershed, a 96 km2 sub-watershed of the Alameda Creek watershed in Northern California. The process-based PRMS model is being used to improve the accuracy of recent San Antonio Creek streamflow predictions generated by two empirical methods. Although San Antonio Creek watershed is largely ungauged, daily streamflow data exists for hydrologic years (HY) 1913 - 1930. PRMS was calibrated for HY 1913 - 1930 using streamflow data, modern-day land use and PRISM precipitation distribution, and gauged precipitation and temperature data from a nearby watershed. The PRMS model was then used to generate daily streamflows for HY 1996-2013, during which the watershed was ungauged, and hydrologic responses were compared to two nearby gauged sub-watersheds of Alameda Creek. Finally, the PRMS-predicted daily flows between HY 1996-2013 were compared to the two empirically-predicted streamflow time series: (1) the reservoir mass balance method and (2) correlation of historical streamflows from 80 - 100 years ago between San Antonio Creek and a nearby sub-watershed located in Alameda Creek. While the mass balance approach using reservoir storage and transfers is helpful for estimating inflows to the reservoir, large discrepancies in daily streamflow estimation can arise. Similarly, correlation-based predicted daily flows which rely on a relationship from flows collected 80-100 years ago may not represent current watershed hydrologic conditions. This study aims to develop a method of streamflow prediction in the San Antonio Creek watershed by examining PRMS

  10. MARKOV CHAIN MODEL FOR PROBABILITY OF DRY, WET DAYS AND STATISTICAL ANALISIS OF DAILY RAINFALL IN SOME CLIMATIC ZONE OF IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. SHAHRAKI

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Water scarcity is a major problem in arid and semi-arid areas. The scarcity of water is further stressed by the growing demand due to increase in population growth in developing countries. Climate change and its outcomes on precipitation and water resources is the other problem in these areas. Several models are widely used for modeling daily precipitation occurrence. In this study, Markov Chain Model has been extensively used to study spell distribution. For this purpose, a day period was considered as the optimum length of time. Given the assumption that the Markov chain model is the right model for daily precipitation occurrence, the choice of Markov model order was examined on a daily basis for 4 synoptic weather stations with different climates in Iran (Gorgan, Khorram Abad, Zahedan, Tabrizduring 1978-2009. Based on probability rules, events possibility of sequential dry and wet days, these data were analyzed by stochastic process and Markov Chain method. Then probability matrix was calculated by maximum likelihood method. The possibility continuing2-5days of dry and wet days were calculated. The results showed that the probability maximum of consecutive dry period and climatic probability of dry days has occurred in Zahedan. The probability of consecutive dry period has fluctuated from 73.3 to 100 percent. Climatic probability of occurrence of dry days would change in the range of 70.96 to 100 percent with the average probability of about 90.45 percent.

  11. Enhancing Extreme Heat Health-Related Intervention and Preparedness Activities Using Remote Sensing Analysis of Daily Surface Temperature, Surface Observation Networks and Ecmwf Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, R. L.; Booth, J.; Hondula, D.; Ross, K. W.; Stuyvesant, A.; Alm, G.; Baghel, E.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme heat causes more human fatalities in the United States than any other natural disaster, elevating the concern of heat-related mortality. Maricopa County Arizona is known for its high heat index and its sprawling metropolitan complex which makes this region a perfect candidate for human health research. Individuals at higher risk are unequally spatially distributed, leaving the poor, homeless, non-native English speakers, elderly, and the socially isolated vulnerable to heat events. The Arizona Department of Health Services, Arizona State University and NASA DEVELOP LaRC are working to establish a more effective method of placing hydration and cooling centers in addition to enhancing the heat warning system to aid those with the highest exposure. Using NASA's Earth Observation Systems from Aqua and Terra satellites, the daily spatial variability within the UHI was quantified over the summer heat seasons from 2005 - 2014, effectively establishing a remotely sensed surface temperature climatology for the county. A series of One-way Analysis of Variance revealed significant differences between daily surface temperature averages of the top 30% of census tracts within the study period. Furthermore, synoptic upper tropospheric circulation patterns were classified to relate surface weather types and heat index. The surface weather observation networks were also reviewed for analyzing the veracity of the other methods. The results provide detailed information regarding nuances within the UHI effect and will allow pertinent recommendations regarding the health department's adaptive capacity. They also hold essential components for future policy decision-making regarding appropriate locations for cooling centers and efficient warning systems.

  12. The relationships among Muslim Uyghur and Kazakh disabled elders' life satisfaction, activity of daily living, and informal family caregiver's burden, depression, and life satisfaction in far western China: A structural equation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wen Ting; He, Bin; Wang, Yu Huan; Wang, Mei Yan; Chen, Xue Feng; Wu, Fu Chen; Yang, Xue

    2017-04-01

    1 Hypothesis Disabled elders' activities of daily living, caregiver burden, caregiver depression, and caregivers' life satisfaction are significantly related to the life satisfaction of elderly people with disability. 2 Hypothesis There are direct and indirect effects between the life satisfaction of elders, disabled elders' activities of daily living, and family caregivers' factors. This study explored the interrelationships of disabled elders' life satisfaction and activities of daily living, caregivers' factors (burden, depression, and life satisfaction) through a structural equation model. In total, 621 dyads of disabled elders and informal family caregivers completed questionnaires during face-to-face interviews in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region from September 2013 to January 2014. Activity of daily living exerted a direct effect on life satisfaction of disabled elders and 30.4% indirect effect through caregivers' factors. Caregiver burden had a 60.0% direct effect on life satisfaction of disabled elders and a 40.0% indirect effect through the caregiver depression. Caregiver depression showed 76% direct effect on life satisfaction of disabled elders and 24% indirect effect through caregivers' life satisfaction. Direct relationships between activity of daily living and caregiver burden, caregiver burden and caregiver depression, and caregiver depression and caregivers' life satisfaction were observed. Activity of daily living had a 91.3% indirect effect on caregiver depression mediated by caregiver burden; caregiver burden had a 40.0% indirect effect on caregivers' life satisfaction mediated by caregiver depression. Results provide useful information for nurses and policymakers and shed light on the need to consider caregivers' factors in improving care recipients' life satisfaction. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  13. Predictive model accuracy in estimating last Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) intake from plasma and whole blood cannabinoid concentrations in chronic, daily cannabis smokers administered subchronic oral THC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karschner, Erin L; Schwope, David M; Schwilke, Eugene W; Goodwin, Robert S; Kelly, Deanna L; Gorelick, David A; Huestis, Marilyn A

    2012-10-01

    Determining time since last cannabis/Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) exposure is important in clinical, workplace, and forensic settings. Mathematical models calculating time of last exposure from whole blood concentrations typically employ a theoretical 0.5 whole blood-to-plasma (WB/P) ratio. No studies previously evaluated predictive models utilizing empirically-derived WB/P ratios, or whole blood cannabinoid pharmacokinetics after subchronic THC dosing. Ten male chronic, daily cannabis smokers received escalating around-the-clock oral THC (40-120 mg daily) for 8 days. Cannabinoids were quantified in whole blood and plasma by two-dimensional gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Maximum whole blood THC occurred 3.0 h after the first oral THC dose and 103.5h (4.3 days) during multiple THC dosing. Median WB/P ratios were THC 0.63 (n=196), 11-hydroxy-THC 0.60 (n=189), and 11-nor-9-carboxy-THC (THCCOOH) 0.55 (n=200). Predictive models utilizing these WB/P ratios accurately estimated last cannabis exposure in 96% and 100% of specimens collected within 1-5h after a single oral THC dose and throughout multiple dosing, respectively. Models were only 60% and 12.5% accurate 12.5 and 22.5h after the last THC dose, respectively. Predictive models estimating time since last cannabis intake from whole blood and plasma cannabinoid concentrations were inaccurate during abstinence, but highly accurate during active THC dosing. THC redistribution from large cannabinoid body stores and high circulating THCCOOH concentrations create different pharmacokinetic profiles than those in less than daily cannabis smokers that were used to derive the models. Thus, the models do not accurately predict time of last THC intake in individuals consuming THC daily. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  14. Animal models of age related macular degeneration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennesi, Mark E.; Neuringer, Martha; Courtney, Robert J.

    2013-01-01

    Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of vision loss of those over the age of 65 in the industrialized world. The prevalence and need to develop effective treatments for AMD has lead to the development of multiple animal models. AMD is a complex and heterogeneous disease that involves the interaction of both genetic and environmental factors with the unique anatomy of the human macula. Models in mice, rats, rabbits, pigs and non-human primates have recreated many of the histological features of AMD and provided much insight into the underlying pathological mechanisms of this disease. In spite of the large number of models developed, no one model yet recapitulates all of the features of human AMD. However, these models have helped reveal the roles of chronic oxidative damage, inflammation and immune dysregulation, and lipid metabolism in the development of AMD. Models for induced choroidal neovascularization have served as the backbone for testing new therapies. This article will review the diversity of animal models that exist for AMD as well as their strengths and limitations. PMID:22705444

  15. Relative effectiveness of insulin pump treatment over multiple daily injections and structured education during flexible intensive insulin treatment for type 1 diabetes: cluster randomised trial (REPOSE).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-30

    Objective  To compare the effectiveness of insulin pumps with multiple daily injections for adults with type 1 diabetes, with both groups receiving equivalent training in flexible insulin treatment. Design  Pragmatic, multicentre, open label, parallel group, cluster randomised controlled trial (Relative Effectiveness of Pumps Over MDI and Structured Education (REPOSE) trial). Setting  Eight secondary care centres in England and Scotland. Participants  Adults with type 1 diabetes who were willing to undertake intensive insulin treatment, with no preference for pumps or multiple daily injections. Participants were allocated a place on established group training courses that taught flexible intensive insulin treatment ("dose adjustment for normal eating," DAFNE). The course groups (the clusters) were then randomly allocated in pairs to either pump or multiple daily injections. Interventions  Participants attended training in flexible insulin treatment (using insulin analogues) structured around the use of pump or injections, followed for two years. Main outcome measures  The primary outcomes were a change in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) values (%) at two years in participants with baseline HbA1c value of ≥7.5% (58 mmol/mol), and the proportion of participants achieving an HbA1c value of insulin dose, and episodes of moderate and severe hypoglycaemia. Ancillary outcomes included quality of life and treatment satisfaction. Results  317 participants (46 courses) were randomised (156 pump and 161 injections). 267 attended courses and 260 were included in the intention to treat analysis, of which 235 (119 pump and 116 injection) had baseline HbA1c values of ≥7.5%. Glycaemic control and rates of severe hypoglycaemia improved in both groups. The mean change in HbA1c at two years was -0.85% with pump treatment and -0.42% with multiple daily injections. Adjusting for course, centre, age, sex, and accounting for missing values, the difference was -0.24% (-2.7 mmol

  16. Performance of the Angstrom-Prescott Model (A-P) and SVM and ANN techniques to estimate daily global solar irradiation in Botucatu/SP/Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Maurício Bruno Prado; Francisco Escobedo, João; Juliana Rossi, Taiza; dos Santos, Cícero Manoel; da Silva, Sílvia Helena Modenese Gorla

    2017-07-01

    This study describes the comparative study of different methods for estimating daily global solar irradiation (H): Angstrom-Prescott (A-P) model and two Machine Learning techniques (ML) - Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The H database was measured from 1996 to 2011 in Botucatu/SP/Brazil. Different combinations of input variables were adopted. MBE, RMSE, d Willmott, r and r2 statistical indicators obtained in the validation of A-P and SVM and ANN models showed that: SVM technique has better performance in estimating H than A-P and ANN models. A-P model has better performance in estimating H than ANN.

  17. Evaluation and adjustment of description of denitrification in the DailyDayCent and COUP models based on N2 and N2O laboratory incubation system measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosz, Balázs; Well, Reinhard; Dannenmann, Michael; Dechow, René; Kitzler, Barbara; Michel, Kerstin; Reent Köster, Jan

    2017-04-01

    Denitrification is an anaerobic key process by microbes where the NO3- is step-by-step reduced and emitted as NO, N2O and finally N2 gas from the soil. The accurate knowledge of the reduction of nitrate (NO3-) and nitrite (NO2-) to N2O and molecular N2 is important because the N2O fraction is further reduced to N2 and constitutes the main emission source of this greenhouse gas from agricultural soils. Hence, our understanding and ability to quantify soil denitrification is crucial for mitigating nitrogen fertilizer loss as well as for reducing N2O emissions. Models can be an important tool to predict mitigation effects and help to develop climate smart mitigation strategies. Ideally, commonly used biogeochemical models could provide adequate predictions of denitrification processes of agricultural soils but often simplified process descriptions and inadequate model parameters prevent models from simulating adequate fluxes of N2 and N2O on field scale. Model development and parametrization often suffers from limited availability of empirical data describing denitrification processes in agricultural soils. While in many studies N2O emissions are used to develop and train models, detailed measurements on NO, N2O, N2 fluxes and concentrations and related soil conditions are necessary to develop and test adequate model algorithms. Composition of denitrifying communities, coinciding effects of management and local conditions on the development of denitrification hotspots are highly variable in space and time. To address this issue the coordinated research unit „Denitrification in Agricultural Soils: Integrated Control and Modelling at Various Scales (DASIM)" was initiated to more closely investigate N-fluxes caused by denitrification in response to environmental effects, soil properties and microbial communities. Data suitable to validate denitrification models are still scarce due to previous technical and/or methodical limitations of measuring N2 fluxes, but large

  18. Constitutive relations for multiphase flow modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacobs, H.; Vaeth, L.; Thurnay, K. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbH Technik und Umwelt (Germany). Inst. fuer Neutronenphysik und Reaktortechnik

    1998-01-01

    The constitutive relations that are used in the three-field fluid dynamics code IVA-KA for determining the drag in three-phase mixtures and the heat transferred by radiation are described together with some comparisons of calculational results with experiments. In these experiments (QUEOS), large quantities of solid particles are injected into water. Potential deficiencies of the present drag model are discussed. (author)

  19. Exploring the modeling of spatiotemporal variations in ambient air pollution within the land use regression framework: Estimation of PM10 concentrations on a daily basis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alam, Md Saniul; McNabola, Aonghus

    2015-05-01

    Estimation of daily average exposure to PM10 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameterland use regression (LUR) approach to deal with temporal changes in air pollution and the influence of transboundary air pollution on short-term variations in PM10. Using the concept of multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling, the average daily concentrations of PM10 in two European cities, Vienna and Dublin, were modeled. Models were initially developed using the standard MLR approach in Vienna using the most recently available data. Efforts were subsequently made to (i) assess the stability of model predictions over time; (ii) explores the applicability of nonparametric regression (NPR) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) to deal with the nonlinearity of input variables. The predictive performance of the MLR models of the both cities was demonstrated to be stable over time and to produce similar results. However, NPR and ANN were found to have more improvement in the predictive performance in both cities. Using ANN produced the highest result, with daily PM10 exposure predicted at R2=66% for Vienna and 51% for Dublin. In addition, two new predictor variables were also assessed for the Dublin model. The variables representing transboundary air pollution and peak traffic count were found to account for 6.5% and 12.7% of the variation in average daily PM10 concentration. The variable representing transboundary air pollution that was derived from air mass history (from back-trajectory analysis) and population density has demonstrated a positive impact on model performance. The implications of this research would suggest that it is possible to produce a model of ambient air quality on a citywide scale using the readily available data. Most European cities typically have a limited FSM network with average daily concentrations of air pollutants as well as available meteorological, traffic, and land-use data. This research highlights that using these data in combination with

  20. Learning Statistical Patterns in Relational Data Using Probabilistic Relational Models

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Koller, Daphne

    2005-01-01

    .... This effort focused on developing undirected probabilistic models for representing and learning graph patterns, learning patterns involving links between objects, learning discriminative models...

  1. Activities of Daily Living

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... With Parkinson's › Managing Parkinson's › Activities of Daily Living Activities of Daily Living Sometimes Parkinson’s disease (PD) can complicate the basic daily activities a person with living with Parkinson’s once did ...

  2. Evaluation of daily temperatures in Central Europe and their links to large-scale circulation in an ensemble of regional climate models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Plavcová, Eva; Kyselý, Jan

    63A, č. 4 (2011), s. 763-781 ISSN 0280-6495 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/2265 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : daily air temperature * regional climate models * atmospheric circulation * validation * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.136, year: 2011 http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/view/15844/17734

  3. Estimation of daily reference evapotranspiration (ETo) using artificial intelligence methods: Offering a new approach for lagged ETo data-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehdizadeh, Saeid

    2018-04-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is considered as a key factor in hydrological and climatological studies, agricultural water management, irrigation scheduling, etc. It can be directly measured using lysimeters. Moreover, other methods such as empirical equations and artificial intelligence methods can be used to model ET. In the recent years, artificial intelligence methods have been widely utilized to estimate reference evapotranspiration (ETo). In the present study, local and external performances of multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and gene expression programming (GEP) were assessed for estimating daily ETo. For this aim, daily weather data of six stations with different climates in Iran, namely Urmia and Tabriz (semi-arid), Isfahan and Shiraz (arid), Yazd and Zahedan (hyper-arid) were employed during 2000-2014. Two types of input patterns consisting of weather data-based and lagged ETo data-based scenarios were considered to develop the models. Four statistical indicators including root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R2), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to check the accuracy of models. The local performance of models revealed that the MARS and GEP approaches have the capability to estimate daily ETo using the meteorological parameters and the lagged ETo data as inputs. Nevertheless, the MARS had the best performance in the weather data-based scenarios. On the other hand, considerable differences were not observed in the models' accuracy for the lagged ETo data-based scenarios. In the innovation of this study, novel hybrid models were proposed in the lagged ETo data-based scenarios through combination of MARS and GEP models with autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) time series model. It was concluded that the proposed novel models named MARS-ARCH and GEP-ARCH improved the performance of ETo modeling compared to the single MARS and GEP. In addition, the external

  4. The daily risk of bacteremia during hospitalization and associated 30-day mortality evaluated in relation to the traditional classification of bacteremia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Stig Lønberg; Lassen, Annmarie Touborg; Kolmos, Hans Jørn

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We investigated the overall and daily incidence of bacteremia among hospitalized patients and evaluated the traditional classification of bacteremia (community-onset vs nosocomial based on a 48-hour time window) by means of the daily incidence and associated 30-day mortality. METHODS...

  5. Lattice Boltzmann model for numerical relativity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilseven, E; Mendoza, M

    2016-02-01

    In the Z4 formulation, Einstein equations are written as a set of flux conservative first-order hyperbolic equations that resemble fluid dynamics equations. Based on this formulation, we construct a lattice Boltzmann model for numerical relativity and validate it with well-established tests, also known as "apples with apples." Furthermore, we find that by increasing the relaxation time, we gain stability at the cost of losing accuracy, and by decreasing the lattice spacings while keeping a constant numerical diffusivity, the accuracy and stability of our simulations improve. Finally, in order to show the potential of our approach, a linear scaling law for parallelization with respect to number of CPU cores is demonstrated. Our model represents the first step in using lattice kinetic theory to solve gravitational problems.

  6. The biological control of voluntary exercise, spontaneous physical activity and daily energy expenditure in relation to obesity: human and rodent perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garland, Theodore; Schutz, Heidi; Chappell, Mark A; Keeney, Brooke K; Meek, Thomas H; Copes, Lynn E; Acosta, Wendy; Drenowatz, Clemens; Maciel, Robert C; van Dijk, Gertjan; Kotz, Catherine M; Eisenmann, Joey C

    2011-01-15

    Mammals expend energy in many ways, including basic cellular maintenance and repair, digestion, thermoregulation, locomotion, growth and reproduction. These processes can vary tremendously among species and individuals, potentially leading to large variation in daily energy expenditure (DEE). Locomotor energy costs can be substantial for large-bodied species and those with high-activity lifestyles. For humans in industrialized societies, locomotion necessary for daily activities is often relatively low, so it has been presumed that activity energy expenditure and DEE are lower than in our ancestors. Whether this is true and has contributed to a rise in obesity is controversial. In humans, much attention has centered on spontaneous physical activity (SPA) or non-exercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT), the latter sometimes defined so broadly as to include all energy expended due to activity, exclusive of volitional exercise. Given that most people in Western societies engage in little voluntary exercise, increasing NEAT may be an effective way to maintain DEE and combat overweight and obesity. One way to promote NEAT is to decrease the amount of time spent on sedentary behaviours (e.g. watching television). The effects of voluntary exercise on other components of physical activity are highly variable in humans, partly as a function of age, and have rarely been studied in rodents. However, most rodent studies indicate that food consumption increases in the presence of wheels; therefore, other aspects of physical activity are not reduced enough to compensate for the energetic cost of wheel running. Most rodent studies also show negative effects of wheel access on body fat, especially in males. Sedentary behaviours per se have not been studied in rodents in relation to obesity. Several lines of evidence demonstrate the important role of dopamine, in addition to other neural signaling networks (e.g. the endocannabinoid system), in the control of voluntary exercise. A

  7. Chronic Daily Headache in Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Gordon Millichap

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available The prevalence of chronic daily headache (CDH, and its impact and related medication use or overuse in adolescents were examined at the Neurological Institute, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, and other centers in Taiwan.

  8. Daily changes of radon concentration in soil gas under influence of atmospheric factors: room temperature, soil surface temperature and relative humidity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lara, Evelise G.; Oliveira, Arno Heeren de, E-mail: evelise.lara@gmail.com, E-mail: heeren@nuclear.ufmg.br [Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Departamento de Engenharia Nuclear; Rocha, Zildete; Rios, Francisco Javier, E-mail: rochaz@cdtn.br, E-mail: javier@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    This work aims at relating the daily change in the radon concentration in soil gas in a Red Yellow Acrisol (SiBCS) under influence of atmospheric factors: room temperature, soil surface temperature and relative humidity. The {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th, U content and permeability were also performed. The measurements of radon soil gas were carried out by using an AlphaGUARD monitor. The {sup 226}Ra activity concentration was made by Gamma Spectrometry (HPGe); the permeability was carried out using the RADON-JOK permeameter and ICP-MS analysis to {sup 232}Th and U content. The soil permeability is 5.0 x 10{sup -12}, which is considered average. The {sup 226}Ra (22.2 ± 0.3 Bq.m{sup -3}); U content (73.4 ± 3.6 Bq.kg{sup -1}) and {sup 232}Th content (55.3 ± 4.0 Bq.kg{sup -1}) were considered above of average concentrations, according to mean values for soils typical (~ 35.0 Bq.kg{sup -1}) by UNSCEAR. The results showed a difference of 26.0% between the highest and the lowest concentration of radon in soil gas: at midnight (15.5 ± 1.0 kBq.m{sup -3}) and 3:00 pm, the highest mean radon concentration (21.0 ± 1.0 kBq.m{sup -3}). The room temperature and surface soil temperature showed equivalent behavior and the surface soil temperature slightly below room temperature during the entire monitoring time. Nevertheless, the relative humidity showed the highest cyclical behavior, showing a higher relationship with the radon concentration in soil gas. (author)

  9. Daily changes of radon concentration in soil gas under influence of atmospheric factors: room temperature, soil surface temperature and relative humidity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lara, Evelise G.; Oliveira, Arno Heeren de

    2015-01-01

    This work aims at relating the daily change in the radon concentration in soil gas in a Red Yellow Acrisol (SiBCS) under influence of atmospheric factors: room temperature, soil surface temperature and relative humidity. The 226 Ra, 232 Th, U content and permeability were also performed. The measurements of radon soil gas were carried out by using an AlphaGUARD monitor. The 226 Ra activity concentration was made by Gamma Spectrometry (HPGe); the permeability was carried out using the RADON-JOK permeameter and ICP-MS analysis to 232 Th and U content. The soil permeability is 5.0 x 10 -12 , which is considered average. The 226 Ra (22.2 ± 0.3 Bq.m -3 ); U content (73.4 ± 3.6 Bq.kg -1 ) and 232 Th content (55.3 ± 4.0 Bq.kg -1 ) were considered above of average concentrations, according to mean values for soils typical (~ 35.0 Bq.kg -1 ) by UNSCEAR. The results showed a difference of 26.0% between the highest and the lowest concentration of radon in soil gas: at midnight (15.5 ± 1.0 kBq.m -3 ) and 3:00 pm, the highest mean radon concentration (21.0 ± 1.0 kBq.m -3 ). The room temperature and surface soil temperature showed equivalent behavior and the surface soil temperature slightly below room temperature during the entire monitoring time. Nevertheless, the relative humidity showed the highest cyclical behavior, showing a higher relationship with the radon concentration in soil gas. (author)

  10. Greater Independence in Activities of Daily Living is Associated with Higher Health-Related Quality of Life Scores in Nursing Home Residents with Dementia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charice S. Chan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Health-related quality of life (HRQL for nursing home residents is important, however, the concept of quality of life is broad, encompasses many domains and is difficult to assess in people with dementia. Basic activities of daily living (ADL are measured routinely in nursing homes using the Resident Assessment Instrument-Minimum Data Set Version 2.0 (RAI-MDS and Functional Independence Measure (FIM instrument. We examined the relationship between HRQL and ADL to assess the future possibility of ADL dependency level serving as a surrogate measure of HRQL in residents with dementia. To assess ADL, measures derived from the RAI-MDS and FIM data were gathered for 111 residents at the beginning of our study and at 6-month follow-up. Higher scores for independence in ADL were correlated with higher scores for a disease-specific HRQL measure, the Quality of Life—Alzheimer’s Disease Scale. Preliminary evidence suggests that FIM-assessed ADL is associated with HRQL for these residents. The associations of the dressing and toileting items with HRQL were particularly strong. This finding suggests the importance of ADL function in HRQL. The RAI-MDS ADL scales should be used with caution to evaluate HRQL.

  11. Relating derived relations as a model of analogical reasoning: reaction times and event-related potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes-Holmes, Dermot; Regan, Donal; Barnes-Holmes, Yvonne; Commins, Sean; Walsh, Derek; Stewart, Ian; Smeets, Paul M; Whelan, Robert; Dymond, Simon

    2005-11-01

    The current study aimed to test a Relational Frame Theory (RFT) model of analogical reasoning based on the relating of derived same and derived difference relations. Experiment 1 recorded reaction time measures of similar-similar (e.g., "apple is to orange as dog is to cat") versus different-different (e.g., "he is to his brother as chalk is to cheese") derived relational responding, in both speed-contingent and speed-noncontingent conditions. Experiment 2 examined the event-related potentials (ERPs) associated with these two response patterns. Both experiments showed similar-similar responding to be significantly faster than different-different responding. Experiment 2 revealed significant differences between the waveforms of the two response patterns in the left-hemispheric prefrontal regions; different-different waveforms were significantly more negative than similar-similar waveforms. The behavioral and neurophysiological data support the RFT prediction that, all things being equal, similar-similar responding is relationally "simpler" than, and functionally distinct from, different-different analogical responding. The ERP data were fully consistent with findings in the neurocognitive literature on analogy. These findings strengthen the validity of the RFT model of analogical reasoning and supplement the behavior-analytic approach to analogy based on the relating of derived relations.

  12. The biological control of voluntary exercise, spontaneous physical activity and daily energy expenditure in relation to obesity : human and rodent perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garland, Theodore; Schutz, Heidi; Chappell, Mark A.; Keeney, Brooke K.; Meek, Thomas H.; Copes, Lynn E.; Acosta, Wendy; Drenowatz, Clemens; Maciel, Robert C.; van Dijk, Gertjan; Kotz, Catherine M.; Eisenmann, Joey C.; Garland, Jr.

    Mammals expend energy in many ways, including basic cellular maintenance and repair, digestion, thermoregulation, locomotion, growth and reproduction. These processes can vary tremendously among species and individuals, potentially leading to large variation in daily energy expenditure (DEE).

  13. Development of a daily mortality probability prediction model from Intensive Care Unit patients using a discrete-time event history analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ying Che; Chang, Kuang Yi; Lin, Shih Pin; Chen, Kung; Chan, Kwok Hon; Chang, Polun

    2013-08-01

    As studies have pointed out, severity scores are imperfect at predicting individual clinical chance of survival. The clinical condition and pathophysiological status of these patients in the Intensive Care Unit might differ from or be more complicated than most predictive models account for. In addition, as the pathophysiological status changes over time, the likelihood of survival day by day will vary. Actually, it would decrease over time and a single prediction value cannot address this truth. Clearly, alternative models and refinements are warranted. In this study, we used discrete-time-event models with the changes of clinical variables, including blood cell counts, to predict daily probability of mortality in individual patients from day 3 to day 28 post Intensive Care Unit admission. Both models we built exhibited good discrimination in the training (overall area under ROC curve: 0.80 and 0.79, respectively) and validation cohorts (overall area under ROC curve: 0.78 and 0.76, respectively) to predict daily ICU mortality. The paper describes the methodology, the development process and the content of the models, and discusses the possibility of them to serve as the foundation of a new bedside advisory or alarm system. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. NSCLC: primary tumor size - radiation dose-related accelerated, twice daily radiotherapy by target splitting, preceded by 2 cycles of chemotherapy. First results of a prospective study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wurstbauer, K.; Deutschmann, H.; Kopp, P.; Kranzinger, M.; Merz, F.; Nairz, O.; Sedlmayer, F. [Univ. Clinic of Radiation Oncology, Salzburger Landeskliniken und Paracelsus Medizinische Privatuniversitaet, Salzburg (Austria); Studnicka, M. [Univ. Clinic of Pneumology, Salzburger Landeskliniken und Paracelsus Medizinische Privatuniversitaet, Salzburg (Austria)

    2007-12-15

    Ensuing a phase I trial of accelerated, twice daily high dose radiotherapy showing good tolerability, a prospective study relating primary tumor size with radiation dose in non-operated patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) was started. From 01/2004 until 12/2006 79 patients with 81 histologically/cytologically proven NSCLC tumors were treated, representing 94% of all referred non-operated NSCLC patients in stage Mo, malignant pleural effusions excluded. For the majority of patients the conformal target splitting technique has been employed. The target is split into a cranial and a caudal part; beam arrangements in the two parts are completely independent. In order to reduce internal margins slow planning CTs (4 sec./slice) were used, patients freely breathing, 7 mm margins from gross tumor volume to planning target volume. We formed 4 groups with primary tumor sizes (mean number of 3 perpendicular diameters) < 2,5; 2,5-4,5; 4,5-6,0; > 6,0 cm (11/41/22/7 patients, respectively); tumor doses of 73,8, 79,2, 84,6 and 90,0 Gy (ICRU) were applied to the primary tumors of the patients in the respective groups. Single dose 1,8 Gy; twice daily, interval 11 h; 5 days/week; duration 33 days median (range 29-42). Macroscopically involved nodes 61,2 Gy median (range 54,0-75,6 Gy), nodes electively 45,0 Gy (to volume about 6 cm cranial to apparently involved nodes). In 62 patients chemotherapy before radiotherapy was given, 2 cycles median, generally a cisplatin or carboplatin containing doublet; no concurrent chemotherapy. Median follow-up of all patients 16,7 months, of patients alive 19,3 months. Until now 10 local failures (0/11, 3/41, 5/22, 2/7 in the respective groups) and 2 regional failures occured, resulting in an actuarial local and regional tumor control of 80,1% and 96% at 2 years, respectively. Local failures relate to the primary tumor site, regional failures to the regional node sites. Overall actuarial 1-, 2-year survival rate for all patients: 76

  15. Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951-2005 using a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halder, Subhadeep; Saha, Subodh K.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Chase, Thomas N.; Nath Goswami, Bhupendra

    2016-05-01

    Daily moderate rainfall events, which constitute a major portion of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over central India, have decreased significantly during the period 1951 through 2005. On the other hand, mean and extreme near-surface daily temperature during the monsoon season have increased by a maximum of 1-1.5 °C. Using simulations made with a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4) and prescribed land cover of years 1950 and 2005, it is demonstrated that part of the changes in moderate rainfall events and temperature have been caused by land-use/land-cover change (LULCC), which is mostly anthropogenic. Model simulations show that the increase in seasonal mean and extreme temperature over central India coincides with the region of decrease in forest and increase in crop cover. Our results also show that LULCC alone causes warming in the extremes of daily mean and maximum temperatures by a maximum of 1-1.2 °C, which is comparable with the observed increasing trend in the extremes. Decrease in forest cover and simultaneous increase in crops not only reduces the evapotranspiration over land and large-scale convective instability, but also contributes toward decrease in moisture convergence through reduced surface roughness. These factors act together in reducing significantly the moderate rainfall events and the amount of rainfall in that category over central India. Additionally, the model simulations are repeated by removing the warming trend in sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean. As a result, enhanced warming at the surface and greater decrease in moderate rainfall events over central India compared to the earlier set of simulations are noticed. Results from these additional experiments corroborate our initial findings and confirm the contribution of LULCC in the decrease in moderate rainfall events and increase in daily mean and extreme temperature over India. Therefore, this study demonstrates the important implications of LULCC over

  16. A New Hybrid Spatio-temporal Model for Estimating Daily Multi-year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloog, Itai; Chudnovsky, Alexandra A.; Just, Allan C.; Nordio, Francesco; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Schwartz, Joel

    2014-01-01

    The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter PM(sub 2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data.We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM(sub 2.5) at a 1X 1 km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1 X 1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM(sub 2.5) measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R(sup 2) = 0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R(sup 2) = 0.87, R(sup)2 = 0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions

  17. Pertanggungjawaban Sosial Universitas: Implementasi Model Cycle Relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lina Sinatra Wijaya

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The competition among Higher Education is getting tougher. They need to do their best in order to maintain their existence and getting more students coming to their institutions. One way to achieve that goal is through carrying out Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR programs or University Social Responsibility (USR for university. This study tries to investigate the implementation of ‘Cycle Relations’ model in CSR to increase the intake of Higher Education. This study involved seven Higher Educations and nineteen High schools in Central Java. In collecting the data, it used a depth-interview method with all the related parties in this study. The result showed that most of the Higher Education institutions have implemented Corporate Social Responsibility program in various ways. Their target audience included the high schools, society, and parents.  From the model implementation, it showed that the CSR program did have an impact towards the intake in their institution. However, one important thing to consider is that the role of the teachers at schools was quite significant in influencing the students to choose which university to go.  This reflects that although the Higher Education institution have planned and carried out CSR programs according to what the target audiences’ need, it does not guarantee that it will have direct impact towards their intake because the influence of teacher is quite significant. It may have a bigger impact in long term as the target audiences know the quality and contribution of the Higher Education institutions.

  18. Risk considerations related to lung modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masse, R.; Cross, F.T.

    1989-01-01

    Improved lung models provide a more accurate assessment of dose from inhalation exposures and, therefore, more accurate dose-response relationships for risk evaluation and exposure limitation. Epidemiological data for externally irradiated persons indicate that the numbers of excess respiratory tract carcinomas differ in the upper airways, bronchi, and distal lung. Neither their histogenesis and anatomical location nor their progenitor cells are known with sufficient accuracy for accurate assessment of the microdosimetry. The nuclei of sensitive cells generally can be assumed to be distributed at random in the epithelium, beneath the mucus and tips of the beating cilia and cells. In stratified epithelia, basal cells may be considered the only cells at risk. Upper-airway tumors have been observed in both therapeutically irradiated patients and in Hiroshima-Nagasaki survivors. The current International Commission on Radiological Protection Lung-Model Task Group proposes that the upper airways and lung have a similar relative risk coefficient for cancer induction. The partition of the risk weighting factor, therefore, will be proportional to the spontaneous death rate from tumors, and 80% of the weighting factor for the respiratory tract should be attributed to the lung. For Weibel lung-model branching generations 0 to 16 and 17 to 23, the Task Group proposes an 80/20 partition of the risk, i.e., 64% and 16%, respectively, of the total risk. Regarding risk in animals, recent data in rats indicate a significantly lower effectiveness for lung-cancer induction at low doses from insoluble long-lived alpha-emitters than from Rn daughters. These findings are due, in part, to the fact that different regions of the lung are irradiated. Tumors in the lymph nodes are rare in people and animals exposed to radiation.44 references

  19. Efficacy of once-daily indacaterol 75 μg relative to alternative bronchodilators in COPD: A study level and a patient level network meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cope Shannon

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The objective of this study was to evaluate the comparative efficacy of indacaterol 75 μg once daily (OD, tiotropium 18 μg OD, salmeterol 50 μg twice daily (BID, formoterol 12 μg BID, and placebo for the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD based on individual patient data (IPD from randomized controlled trials (RCTs from the indacaterol trial program and aggregate data (AD identified from a systematic review of RCTs. Methods 22 RCTs were included in the AD analysis that evaluated: indacaterol 75 μg (n = 2 studies, indacaterol 150 μg n = 5 (i.e. salmeterol 50 μg (n = 5, indacaterol 300 μg (n = 2, tiotropium 18 μg (n = 10, salmeterol 50 μg (n = 7, and formoterol 12 μg (n = 4. All of the studies except for one head-to-head comparison (tiotropium vs. salmeterol were placebo controlled. Outcomes of interest were trough forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1 and St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ total score at week 12. The AD from all trials was analysed simultaneously using a Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA and relative treatment effects between all regimens were obtained. In a separate analysis, the IPD available from the 6 indacaterol RCTs was analysed in a NMA. Treatment-by-covariate interactions were included in both analyses to improve similarity of the trials. Results All interventions compared were more efficacious than placebo regarding FEV1 at 12 weeks. Indacaterol 75 μg is expected to result in a comparable FEV1 at 12 weeks to tiotropium and salmeterol based on both IPD and AD analyses. In comparison to formoterol, the IPD and AD results indicate indacaterol 75 μg is more efficacious (IPD = 0.07 L difference; 95%Credible Interval (CrI 0.02 to 0.11; AD = 0.05 L difference; 95%CrI 0.01; 0.09. In terms of SGRQ total score at 12 weeks, indacaterol 75 μg and formoterol were more efficacious than

  20. Motor fatigability in persons with multiple sclerosis: Relation between different upper limb muscles, and with fatigue and the perceived use of the arm in daily life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severijns, Deborah; Van Geel, Fanny; Feys, Peter

    2018-01-01

    Motor fatigability is increasingly acknowledged in persons with MS (pwMS). It is unknown whether fatigability is generalized across upper limb muscles and relates to fatigue and perceived difficulties in upper limb use. This observational case-controlled study included twenty PwMS (median EDSS = 3, range 1.5-6.5) and twenty healthy controls who performed 30″ sustained maximal muscle contractions for index finger abduction, hand grip, elbow flexion and shoulder abduction. A static fatigue index (SFI) was calculated to assess motor fatigability for each muscle group. PwMS completed the Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS) and Modified Fatigue Index Scale (MFIS), to quantify severity and perceived impact of fatigue and the Manual Ability Measure (MAM-36) reflecting perceived difficulty in using the upper limbs. Comparisons between groups and muscles was made by t-tests. Associations between outcomes were calculated with correlation coefficients. Fatigue was highest in pwMS. PwMS showed preserved muscle strength and a greater motor fatigability in elbow flexors compared to healthy controls. SFI of elbow flexors and shoulder abductors were associated, and contributed to FSS and MFIS. SFI of elbow flexors and finger abductors predicted half of the variation in MAM-36. Increased motor fatigability was only present in elbow flexors of PwMS, indicating that expression of motor fatigability is not generalized. Fatigability was associated with perceived fatigue (impact) and daily life upper limb use. Results are preliminary given the small sample size with predominantly persons with mild MS. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Evaluation of the impact of explanatory variables on the accuracy of prediction of daily inflow to the sewage treatment plant by selected models nonlinear

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szeląg Bartosz

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to evaluate the possibility of applying different methods of data mining to model the inflow of sewage into the municipal sewage treatment plant. Prediction models were elaborated using methods of support vector machines (SVM, random forests (RF, k-nearest neighbour (k-NN and of Kernel regression (K. Data consisted of the time series of daily rainfalls, water level measurements in the clarified sewage recipient and the wastewater inflow into the Rzeszow city plant. Results indicate that the best models with one input delayed by 1 day were obtained using the k-NN method while the worst with the K method. For the models with two input variables and one explanatory one the smallest errors were obtained if model inputs were sewage inflow and rainfall data delayed by 1 day and the best fit is provided using RF method while the worst with the K method. In the case of models with three inputs and two explanatory variables, the best results were reported for the SVM and the worst for the K method. In the most of the modelling runs the smallest prediction errors are obtained using the SVM method and the biggest ones with the K method. In the case of the simplest model with one input delayed by 1 day the best results are provided using k-NN method and by the models with two inputs in two modelling runs the RF method appeared as the best.

  2. Evaluating five remote sensing based single-source surface energy balance models for estimating daily evapotranspiration in a humid subtropical climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattarai, Nishan; Shaw, Stephen B.; Quackenbush, Lindi J.; Im, Jungho; Niraula, Rewati

    2016-07-01

    In the last two decades, a number of single-source surface energy balance (SEB) models have been proposed for mapping evapotranspiration (ET); however, there is no clear guidance on which models are preferable under different conditions. In this paper, we tested five models-Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), Mapping ET at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC), Simplified Surface Energy Balance Index (S-SEBI), Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS), and operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop)-to identify the single-source SEB models most appropriate for use in the humid southeastern United States. ET predictions from these models were compared with measured ET at four sites (marsh, grass, and citrus surfaces) for 149 cloud-free Landsat image acquisition days between 2000 and 2010. The overall model evaluation statistics showed that SEBS generally outperformed the other models in terms of estimating daily ET from different land covers (e.g., the root mean squared error (RMSE) was 0.74 mm day-1). SSEBop was consistently the worst performing model and overestimated ET at all sites (RMSE = 1.67 mm day-1), while the other models typically fell in between SSEBop and SEBS. However, for short grass conditions, SEBAL, METRIC, and S-SEBI appear to work much better than SEBS. Overall, our study suggests that SEBS may be the best SEB model in humid regions, although it may require modifications to work better over short vegetation.

  3. Downscaling of daily precipitation using a hybrid model of Artificial Neural Network, Wavelet, and Quantile Mapping in Gharehsoo River Basin, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taie Semiromi, M.; Koch, M.

    2017-12-01

    Although linear/regression statistical downscaling methods are very straightforward and widely used, and they can be applied to a single predictor-predictand pair or spatial fields of predictors-predictands, the greatest constraint is the requirement of a normal distribution of the predictor and the predictand values, which means that it cannot be used to predict the distribution of daily rainfall because it is typically non-normal. To tacked with such a limitation, the current study aims to introduce a new developed hybrid technique taking advantages from Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Wavelet and Quantile Mapping (QM) for downscaling of daily precipitation for 10 rain-gauge stations located in Gharehsoo River Basin, Iran. With the purpose of daily precipitation downscaling, the study makes use of Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) developed by Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCma). Climate projections are available for three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) namely RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for up to 2100. In this regard, 26 National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis large-scale variables which have potential physical relationships with precipitation, were selected as candidate predictors. Afterwards, predictor screening was conducted using correlation, partial correlation and explained variance between predictors and predictand (precipitation). Depending on each rain-gauge station between two and three predictors were selected which their decomposed details (D) and approximation (A) obtained from discrete wavelet analysis were fed as inputs to the neural networks. After downscaling of daily precipitation, bias correction was conducted using quantile mapping. Out of the complete time series available, i.e. 1978-2005, two third of which namely 1978-1996 was used for calibration of QM and the reminder, i.e. 1997-2005 was considered for the validation. Result showed that the proposed

  4. Associations between ambient air pollution and daily mortality in a cohort of congestive heart failure: Case-crossover and nested case-control analyses using a distributed lag nonlinear model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buteau, Stephane; Goldberg, Mark S; Burnett, Richard T; Gasparrini, Antonio; Valois, Marie-France; Brophy, James M; Crouse, Dan L; Hatzopoulou, Marianne

    2018-04-01

    Persons with congestive heart failure may be at higher risk of the acute effects related to daily fluctuations in ambient air pollution. To meet some of the limitations of previous studies using grouped-analysis, we developed a cohort study of persons with congestive heart failure to estimate whether daily non-accidental mortality were associated with spatially-resolved, daily exposures to ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and ozone (O 3 ), and whether these associations were modified according to a series of indicators potentially reflecting complications or worsening of health. We constructed the cohort from the linkage of administrative health databases. Daily exposure was assigned from different methods we developed previously to predict spatially-resolved, time-dependent concentrations of ambient NO 2 (all year) and O 3 (warm season) at participants' residences. We performed two distinct types of analyses: a case-crossover that contrasts the same person at different times, and a nested case-control that contrasts different persons at similar times. We modelled the effects of air pollution and weather (case-crossover only) on mortality using distributed lag nonlinear models over lags 0 to 3 days. We developed from administrative health data a series of indicators that may reflect the underlying construct of "declining health", and used interactions between these indicators and the cross-basis function for air pollutant to assess potential effect modification. The magnitude of the cumulative as well as the lag-specific estimates of association differed in many instances according to the metric of exposure. Using the back-extrapolation method, which is our preferred exposure model, we found for the case-crossover design a cumulative mean percentage changes (MPC) in daily mortality per interquartile increment in NO 2 (8.8 ppb) of 3.0% (95% CI: -0.9, 6.9%) and for O 3 (16.5 ppb) 3.5% (95% CI: -4.5, 12.1). For O 3 there was strong confounding by weather

  5. Development of nonlinear empirical models to forecast daily PM2.5 and ozone levels in three large Chinese cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Baolei; Cobourn, W. Geoffrey; Bai, Yuqi

    2016-12-01

    Empirical regression models for next-day forecasting of PM2.5 and O3 air pollution concentrations have been developed and evaluated for three large Chinese cities, Beijing, Nanjing and Guangzhou. The forecast models are empirical nonlinear regression models designed for use in an automated data retrieval and forecasting platform. The PM2.5 model includes an upwind air quality variable, PM24, to account for regional transport of PM2.5, and a persistence variable (previous day PM2.5 concentration). The models were evaluated in the hindcast mode with a two-year air quality and meteorological data set using a leave-one-month-out cross validation method, and in the forecast mode with a one-year air quality and forecasted weather dataset that included forecasted air trajectories. The PM2.5 models performed well in the hindcast mode, with coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.54, 0.65 and 0.64, and normalized mean error (NME) values of 0.40, 0.26 and 0.23 respectively, for the three cities. The O3 models also performed well in the hindcast mode, with R2 values of 0.75, 0.55 and 0.73, and NME values of 0.29, 0.26 and 0.24 in the three cities. The O3 models performed better in summertime than in winter in Beijing and Guangzhou, and captured the O3 variations well all the year round in Nanjing. The overall forecast performance of the PM2.5 and O3 models during the test year varied from fair to good, depending on location. The forecasts were somewhat degraded compared with hindcasts from the same year, depending on the accuracy of the forecasted meteorological input data. For the O3 models, the model forecast accuracy was strongly dependent on the maximum temperature forecasts. For the critical forecasts, involving air quality standard exceedences, the PM2.5 model forecasts were fair to good, and the O3 model forecasts were poor to fair.

  6. Handbook of latent variable and related models

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Sik-Yum

    2011-01-01

    This Handbook covers latent variable models, which are a flexible class of models for modeling multivariate data to explore relationships among observed and latent variables.- Covers a wide class of important models- Models and statistical methods described provide tools for analyzing a wide spectrum of complicated data- Includes illustrative examples with real data sets from business, education, medicine, public health and sociology.- Demonstrates the use of a wide variety of statistical, computational, and mathematical techniques.

  7. MODIS/Terra+Aqua BRDF/Albedo Model Parameters Daily L3 Global 500m SIN Grid

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MODIS Near Real Time (NRT) MCD43A1N, MODIS Combined Aqua and Terra Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function and Albedo (BRDF/Albedo) Model Parameters is a...

  8. MODIS/Terra+Aqua BRDF/Albedo Model Parameters Daily L3 Global 0.05Deg CMG

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MODIS Near Real Time (NRT) MCD43C1N, MODIS Combined Aqua and Terra Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function and Albedo (BRDF/Albedo) Model Parameters is a...

  9. A Comparison of SWAT and ANN Models for Daily Runoff Simulation in Different Climatic Zones of Peninsular Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Patricia Jimeno-Sáez; Javier Senent-Aparicio; Julio Pérez-Sánchez; David Pulido-Velazquez

    2018-01-01

    Streamflow data are of prime importance to water-resources planning and management, and the accuracy of their estimation is very important for decision making. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models have been evaluated and compared to find a method to improve streamflow estimation. For a more complete evaluation, the accuracy and ability of these streamflow estimation models was also established separately based on their performance during differe...

  10. The dynamics of daily events and well-being across cultures: when less is more.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oishi, Shigehiro; Diener, Ed; Choi, Dong-Won; Kim-Prieto, Chu; Choi, Incheol

    2007-10-01

    The authors examined cultural and individual differences in the relation between daily events and daily satisfaction. In a preliminary study, they established cross-cultural equivalence of 50 daily events. In the main study, participants in the United States, Korea, and Japan completed daily surveys on the 50 events and daily satisfaction for 21 days. The multilevel random coefficient model analyses showed that (a) the within-person association between positive events and daily satisfaction was significantly stronger among Asian American, Korean, and Japanese participants than among European American participants and (b) the within-person association between positive events and daily satisfaction was significantly weaker among individuals high in global life satisfaction than among those low in global life satisfaction. The findings demonstrate a weaker effect of positive events on daily well-being among individuals and cultures high in global well-being. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved).

  11. Daily Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These daily weather records were compiled from a subset of stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset. A weather record is...

  12. Managing Daily Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Duchenne / Managing Daily Life Print Email Managing Daily Life Environmental accessibility As the person with Duchenne starts ... such as wider doorways and ramps, can make life easier once the person with Duchenne cannot climb ...

  13. A simple daily soil-water balance model for estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater recharge in temperate humid areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dripps, W.R.; Bradbury, K.R.

    2007-01-01

    Quantifying the spatial and temporal distribution of natural groundwater recharge is usually a prerequisite for effective groundwater modeling and management. As flow models become increasingly utilized for management decisions, there is an increased need for simple, practical methods to delineate recharge zones and quantify recharge rates. Existing models for estimating recharge distributions are data intensive, require extensive parameterization, and take a significant investment of time in order to establish. The Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey (WGNHS) has developed a simple daily soil-water balance (SWB) model that uses readily available soil, land cover, topographic, and climatic data in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) to estimate the temporal and spatial distribution of groundwater recharge at the watershed scale for temperate humid areas. To demonstrate the methodology and the applicability and performance of the model, two case studies are presented: one for the forested Trout Lake watershed of north central Wisconsin, USA and the other for the urban-agricultural Pheasant Branch Creek watershed of south central Wisconsin, USA. Overall, the SWB model performs well and presents modelers and planners with a practical tool for providing recharge estimates for modeling and water resource planning purposes in humid areas. ?? Springer-Verlag 2007.

  14. Cognitive Benefits of Last Night's Sleep: Daily Variations in Children's Sleep Behavior Are Related to Working Memory Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Könen, Tanja; Dirk, Judith; Schmiedek, Florian

    2015-01-01

    Background: Recent studies have suggested substantial fluctuations of cognitive performance in adults both across and within days, but very little is known about such fluctuations in children. Children's sleep behavior might have an important influence on their daily cognitive resources, but so far this has not been investigated in terms of…

  15. Longitudinal Development of Manual Motor Ability in Autism Spectrum Disorder from Childhood to Mid-Adulthood Relates to Adaptive Daily Living Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travers, Brittany G.; Bigler, Erin D.; Duffield, Tyler C.; Prigge, Molly D. B.; Froehlich, Alyson L.; Lange, Nicholas; Alexander, Andrew L.; Lainhart, Janet E.

    2017-01-01

    Many individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) exhibit motor difficulties, but it is unknown whether manual motor skills improve, plateau, or decline in ASD in the transition from childhood into adulthood. Atypical development of manual motor skills could impact the ability to learn and perform daily activities across the life span. This…

  16. A daily salt balance model for stream salinity generation processes following partial clearing from forest to pasture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Bari

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We developed a coupled salt and water balance model to represent the stream salinity generation process following land use changes. The conceptual model consists of three main components with five stores: (i Dry, Wet and Subsurface Stores, (ii a saturated Groundwater Store and (iii a transient Stream zone Store. The Dry and Wet Stores represent the salt and water movement in the unsaturated zone and also the near-stream dynamic saturated areas, responsible for the generation of salt flux associated with surface runoff and interflow. The unsaturated Subsurface Store represents the salt bulge and the salt fluxes. The Groundwater Store comes into play when the groundwater level is at or above the stream invert and quantifies the salt fluxes to the Stream zone Store. In the stream zone module, we consider a 'free mixing' between the salt brought about by surface runoff, interflow and groundwater flow. Salt accumulation on the surface due to evaporation and its flushing by initial winter flow is also incorporated in the Stream zone Store. The salt balance model was calibrated sequentially following successful application of the water balance model. Initial salt stores were estimated from measured salt profile data. We incorporated two lumped parameters to represent the complex chemical processes like diffusion-dilution-dispersion and salt fluxes due to preferential flow. The model has performed very well in simulating stream salinity generation processes observed at Ernies and Lemon experimental catchments in south west of Western Australia. The simulated and observed stream salinity and salt loads compare very well throughout the study period with NSE of 0.7 and 0.4 for Ernies and Lemon catchment respectively. The model slightly over predicted annual stream salt load by 6.2% and 6.8%.

  17. Long-term prediction of solar and geomagnetic activity daily time series using singular spectrum analysis and fuzzy descriptor models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirmomeni, M.; Kamaliha, E.; Shafiee, M.; Lucas, C.

    2009-09-01

    Of the various conditions that affect space weather, Sun-driven phenomena are the most dominant. Cyclic solar activity has a significant effect on the Earth, its climate, satellites, and space missions. In recent years, space weather hazards have become a major area of investigation, especially due to the advent of satellite technology. As such, the design of reliable alerting and warning systems is of utmost importance, and international collaboration is needed to develop accurate short-term and long-term prediction methodologies. Several methods have been proposed and implemented for the prediction of solar and geomagnetic activity indices, but problems in predicting the exact time and magnitude of such catastrophic events still remain. There are, however, descriptor systems that describe a wider class of systems, including physical models and non-dynamic constraints. It is well known that the descriptor system is much tighter than the state-space expression for representing real independent parametric perturbations. In addition, the fuzzy descriptor models as a generalization of the locally linear neurofuzzy models are general forms that can be trained by constructive intuitive learning algorithms. Here, we propose a combined model based on fuzzy descriptor models and singular spectrum analysis (SSA) (FD/SSA) to forecast a number of geomagnetic activity indices in a manner that optimizes a fuzzy descriptor model for each of the principal components obtained from singular spectrum analysis and recombines the predicted values so as to transform the geomagnetic activity time series into natural chaotic phenomena. The method has been applied to predict two solar and geomagnetic activity indices: geomagnetic aa and solar wind speed (SWS) of the solar wind index. The results demonstrate the higher power of the proposed method-- compared to other methods -- for predicting solar activity.

  18. Unravelling daily human mobility motifs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Christian M; Belik, Vitaly; Couronné, Thomas; Smoreda, Zbigniew; González, Marta C

    2013-07-06

    Human mobility is differentiated by time scales. While the mechanism for long time scales has been studied, the underlying mechanism on the daily scale is still unrevealed. Here, we uncover the mechanism responsible for the daily mobility patterns by analysing the temporal and spatial trajectories of thousands of persons as individual networks. Using the concept of motifs from network theory, we find only 17 unique networks are present in daily mobility and they follow simple rules. These networks, called here motifs, are sufficient to capture up to 90 per cent of the population in surveys and mobile phone datasets for different countries. Each individual exhibits a characteristic motif, which seems to be stable over several months. Consequently, daily human mobility can be reproduced by an analytically tractable framework for Markov chains by modelling periods of high-frequency trips followed by periods of lower activity as the key ingredient.

  19. Fast-food and full-service restaurant consumption in relation to daily energy and nutrient intakes among US adult cancer survivors, 2003-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Ruopeng; Liu, Junyi

    2013-01-01

    Healthy diet is an essential component in cancer survivorship care planning. Cancer survivors should be particularly prudent regarding their daily food choices, with an aim of ensuring safe consumption, reducing risk of recurrence or other comorbidity, and improving quality of life. We aimed to examine the impacts of fast-food and full-service restaurant consumption on daily energy and nutrient intakes among US adult cancer survivors. Nationally representative data of 1308 adult cancer survivors came from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003-2012 waves. First-difference estimator was adopted to address confounding bias from time-invariant unobservables like personal food/beverage preferences by using within-individual variations in diet and restaurant consumption status between two non-consecutive 24-hour dietary recalls. Fast-food and full-service restaurant consumption, respectively, was associated with an increase in daily total energy intake by 125.97 and 152.26 kcal and sodium intake by 312.47 and 373.75 mg. Fast-food consumption was significantly associated with a decrease in daily vitamin A intake by 119.88 µg and vitamin K intake by 30.48 µg, whereas full-service restaurant consumption was associated with an increase in daily fat intake by 8.99 g and omega-6 fatty acid intake by 3.85 g, and a decrease in vitamin D intake by 0.93 µg. Compared with fast-food and full-service restaurant consumption at home, consumption away from home led to further reduced diet quality. Individualized nutrition counseling and food assistance programs should address cancer survivors' overall dining-out behavior rather than fast-food consumption alone. © The Author(s) 2015.

  20. Genomic prediction and genomic variance partitioning of daily and residual feed intake in pigs using Bayesian Power Lasso models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Do, Duy Ngoc; Janss, L. L. G.; Strathe, Anders Bjerring

    Improvement of feed efficiency is essential in pig breeding and selection for reduced residual feed intake (RFI) is an option. The study applied Bayesian Power LASSO (BPL) models with different power parameter to investigate genetic architecture, to predict genomic breeding values, and to partition...

  1. Calibration of a parsimonious distributed ecohydrological daily model in a data-scarce basin by exclusively using the spatio-temporal variation of NDVI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Pérez, Guiomar; Koch, Julian; Manfreda, Salvatore; Caylor, Kelly; Francés, Félix

    2017-12-01

    Ecohydrological modeling studies in developing countries, such as sub-Saharan Africa, often face the problem of extensive parametrical requirements and limited available data. Satellite remote sensing data may be able to fill this gap, but require novel methodologies to exploit their spatio-temporal information that could potentially be incorporated into model calibration and validation frameworks. The present study tackles this problem by suggesting an automatic calibration procedure, based on the empirical orthogonal function, for distributed ecohydrological daily models. The procedure is tested with the support of remote sensing data in a data-scarce environment - the upper Ewaso Ngiro river basin in Kenya. In the present application, the TETIS-VEG model is calibrated using only NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data derived from MODIS. The results demonstrate that (1) satellite data of vegetation dynamics can be used to calibrate and validate ecohydrological models in water-controlled and data-scarce regions, (2) the model calibrated using only satellite data is able to reproduce both the spatio-temporal vegetation dynamics and the observed discharge at the outlet and (3) the proposed automatic calibration methodology works satisfactorily and it allows for a straightforward incorporation of spatio-temporal data into the calibration and validation framework of a model.

  2. Mapping Relational Operations onto Hypergraph Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2010-10-01

    ="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>

    The relational model is the most commonly used data model for storing large datasets, perhaps due to the simplicity of the tabular format which had revolutionized database management systems. However, many real world objects are recursive and associative in nature which makes storage in the relational model difficult. The hypergraph model is a generalization of a graph model, where each hypernode can be made up of other nodes or graphs and each hyperedge can be made up of one or more edges. It may address the recursive and associative limitations of relational model

  3. A Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX Neural Network Model for the Prediction of the Daily Direct Solar Radiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zina Boussaada

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The solar photovoltaic (PV energy has an important place among the renewable energy sources. Therefore, several researchers have been interested by its modelling and its prediction, in order to improve the management of the electrical systems which include PV arrays. Among the existing techniques, artificial neural networks have proved their performance in the prediction of the solar radiation. However, the existing neural network models don’t satisfy the requirements of certain specific situations such as the one analyzed in this paper. The aim of this research work is to supply, with electricity, a race sailboat using exclusively renewable sources. The developed solution predicts the direct solar radiation on a horizontal surface. For that, a Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX neural network is used. All the specific conditions of the sailboat operation are taken into account. The results show that the best prediction performance is obtained when the training phase of the neural network is performed periodically.

  4. Daily temperature changes and variability in ENSEMBLES regional models predictions: Evaluation and intercomparison for the Ebro Valley (NE Iberia)

    KAUST Repository

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.

    2014-12-18

    We employ a suite of regional climate models (RCMs) to assess future changes in summer (JJA) maximum temperature (Tmax) over the Ebro basin, the largest hydrological division in the Iberian Peninsula. Under the A1B emission scenario, future changes in both mean values and their corresponding time varying percentiles were examined by comparing the control period (1971-2000) with two future time slices: 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Here, the rationale is to assess how lower/upper tails of temperature distributions will change in the future and whether these changes will be consistent with those of the mean. The model validation results demonstrate significant differences among the models in terms of their capability to representing the statistical characteristics (e.g., mean, skewness and asymmetry) of the observed climate. The results also indicate that the current substantial warming observed in the Ebro basin is expected to continue during the 21st century, with more intense warming occurring at higher altitudes and in areas with greater distance from coastlines. All models suggest that the region will experience significant positive changes in both the cold and warm tails of temperature distributions. However, the results emphasize that future changes in the lower and upper tails of the summer Tmax distribution may not follow the same warming rate as the mean condition. In particular, the projected changes in the warm tail of the summer Tmax are shown to be significantly larger than changes in both mean values and the cold tail, especially at the end of the 21st century. The finding suggests that much of the changes in the summer Tmax percentiles will be driven by a shift in the entire distribution of temperature rather than only changes in the central tendency. Better understanding of the possible implications of future climate systems provides information useful for vulnerability assessments and the development of local adaptation strategies for multi

  5. Making Daily Mobility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ole B.; Wind, Simon

    In 2012 the average daily transportation distance for every Dane were 40 km (TU Data). Realising how much of life is spend thinking about, planning and performing mobility practices it becomes evident that it is much more than an instrumental physical phenomenon – it has great repercussions on life......, social networks, understanding of places and ultimately ourselves and others. To successfully accomplish everyday life, households have to cope with large number of different activities and mobility in relation to their children, work, social life, obligations, expectations, needs and wishes. Drawing...... on mobilities theory (Urry 2007; Larsen et al. 2006) and practice theory (Schatzki 2001; Reckwitz 2002; Shove et al. 2012) this paper seeks to unfold a theoretical framework for understanding of the household’s mobility coping strategies and how these strategies are actualised and materialised into mobility...

  6. Relative Motion Modeling and Autonomous Navigation Accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-15

    the use of nonsingular elements, this version of relative motion STM has singularities for reference orbits that lie in the equatorial plane ...improved by including the lunar orbit’s eccentricity and inclination in the studies presented in References [17-19]. Since the perturbed relative motion ...satellites are equipped with solar flaps or aerodynamic flaps. By appropriate rotation of these flaps, it is possible to influence the relative motion

  7. A general model for the influence of daily rainfall intensity and timing on streamflow variability and flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deal, E.; Dralle, D.; Braun, J.; Botter, G.

    2017-12-01

    The response of river basins to rainfall changes significantly from one basin to another and one storm to the next. This is because many time-varying processes influence how rainfall makes its way into streams, such as soil moisture dynamics, antecedent conditions as well as subsurface flow and storage. Using an established, parsimonious stochastic model of catchment hydrology simplifies the problem enough to handle this complexity and search for a general response of river basins to predicted changes in rainfall resulting from climate change. The model is applicable in basins without significant snowfall. Included are simplified representations of rainfall, soil moisture dynamics and evapotranspiration. Additionally, deep water storage and subsurface hydrology are parameterized with a simple model for streamflow recessions. The model suggests a general relationship between rainfall timing and intensity and the variability of streamflow. Specifically, we predict that basins with intense rainfall or rainfall that is correlated in time (rainfall over several consecutive days) will have streamflow with a higher coefficient of variation than basins with less intense or less correlated rainfall, all else equal. We test this prediction using a database of USGS gauged rivers minimally impacted by human activity. In basins without significant snowfall, the observed relationship between rainfall and streamflow variability matches the theory well. Further, the manner in which this relationship is modulated by streamflow recession characteristics agrees with our theory. Most importantly, we find the effect of rainfall intensity is sensitive to the nonlinearity of streamflow recessions. We use our new understanding of the effect of rainfall intensity and timing on streamflow variability and the controls on this relationship to quantify the sensitivity of streamflow variability to changes in rainfall. It has been predicted that rainfall intensity will increase in many places in

  8. Maneuver Estimation Model for Relative Orbit Determination

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Storch, Tara R

    2005-01-01

    While the use of relative orbit determination has reduced the difficulties inherent in tracking geosynchronous satellites that are in close proximity, the problem is often compounded by stationkeeping...

  9. Modeling behavioral considerations related to information security.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Moyano, I. J.; Conrad, S. H.; Andersen, D. F. (Decision and Information Sciences); (SNL); (Univ. at Albany)

    2011-01-01

    The authors present experimental and simulation results of an outcome-based learning model for the identification of threats to security systems. This model integrates judgment, decision-making, and learning theories to provide a unified framework for the behavioral study of upcoming threats.

  10. Statistical comparison of models for estimating the monthly average daily diffuse radiation at a subtropical African site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bashahu, M. [University of Burundi, Bujumbura (Burundi). Institute of Applied Pedagogy, Department of Physics and Technology

    2003-07-01

    Nine correlations have been developed in this paper to estimate the monthly average diffuse radiation for Dakar, Senegal. A 16-year period data on the global (H) and diffuse (H{sub d}) radiation, together with data on the bright sunshine hours (N), the fraction of the sky's (Ne/8), the water vapour pressure in the air (e) and the ambient temperature (T) have been used for that purpose. A model inter-comparison based on the MBE, RMSE and t statistical tests has shown that estimates in any of the obtained correlations are not significantly different from their measured counterparts, thus all the nine models are recommended for the aforesaid location. Three of them should be particularly selected for their simplicity, universal applicability and high accuracy. Those are simple linear correlations between K{sub d} and N/N{sub d}, Ne/8 or K{sub t}. Even presenting adequate performance, the remaining correlations are either simple but less accurate, or multiple or nonlinear regressions needing one or two input variables. (author)

  11. Statistical comparison of models for estimating the monthly average daily diffuse radiation at a subtropical African site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bashahu, M.

    2003-01-01

    Nine correlations have been developed in this paper to estimate the monthly average diffuse radiation for Dakar, Senegal. A 16-year period data on the global (H) and diffuse (H d ) radiation, together with data on the bright sunshine hours (N), the fraction of the sky's (Ne/8), the water vapour pressure in the air (e) and the ambient temperature (T) have been used for that purpose. A model inter-comparison based on the MBE, RMSE and t statistical tests has shown that estimates in any of the obtained correlations are not significantly different from their measured counterparts, thus all the nine models are recommended for the aforesaid location. Three of them should be particularly selected for their simplicity, universal applicability and high accuracy. Those are simple linear correlations between K d and N/N d , Ne/8 or K t . Even presenting adequate performance, the remaining correlations are either simple but less accurate, or multiple or nonlinear regressions needing one or two input variables. (author)

  12. Daily Coffee Intake Inhibits Pancreatic Beta Cell Damage and Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis in a Mouse Model of Spontaneous Metabolic Syndrome, Tsumura-Suzuki Obese Diabetic Mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Syunsuke; Takahashi, Tetsuyuki; Ogawa, Hirohisa; Uehara, Hisanori; Tsunematsu, Takaaki; Baba, Hayato; Morimoto, Yuki; Tsuneyama, Koichi

    2017-05-01

    Metabolic syndrome is one of the most important health issues worldwide. Obesity causes insulin resistance, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, and various diseases throughout the body. The liver phenotype, which is called nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), frequently progresses to hepatocellular carcinoma. We recently established a new animal model, Tsumura-Suzuki obese diabetic (TSOD) mice, which spontaneously exhibit obesity, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and NASH with liver nodules. We examined the effects of coffee intake on various conditions of the metabolic syndrome using TSOD mice. The daily volume of coffee administered was limited so that it reflected the appropriate quantities consumed in humans. To clarify the effects of the specific components, animals were divided into two coffee-intake groups that included with and without caffeine. Coffee intake did not significantly affect obesity and hyperlipidemia in TSOD mice. In contrast, coffee intake caused various degrees of improvement in the pancreatic beta cell damage and steatohepatitis with liver carcinogenesis. Most of the effects were believed to be caused by a synergistic effect of caffeine with other components such as polyphenols. However, the antifibrotic effects of coffee appeared to be due to the polyphenols rather than the caffeine. A daily habit of drinking coffee could possibly play a role in the prevention of metabolic syndrome.

  13. Using daily air temperature thresholds to evaluate snow melting occurrence and amount on Alpine glaciers by T-index models: the case study of the Forni Glacier (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senese, A.; Maugeri, M.; Vuillermoz, E.; Smiraglia, C.; Diolaiuti, G.

    2014-10-01

    Glacier melt conditions (i.e., null surface temperature and positive energy budget) can be assessed by analyzing data acquired by a supraglacial automatic weather station (AWS), such as the station installed on the surface of Forni Glacier (Italian Alps). When an AWS is not present, the assessment of actual melt conditions and the evaluation of the melt amount is more difficult and simple methods based on T-index (or degree days) models are generally applied. These models require the choice of a correct temperature threshold. In fact, melt does not necessarily occur at daily air temperatures higher than 0 °C. In this paper, we applied both energy budget and T-index approaches with the aim of solving this issue. We start by distinguishing between the occurrence of snowmelt and the reduction in snow depth due to actual ablation (from snow depth data recorded by a sonic ranger). Then we find the daily average temperature thresholds (by analyzing temperature data acquired by an AWS on Forni Glacier) which, on the one hand, best capture the occurrence of significant snowmelt conditions and, on the other, make it possible, using the T-index, to quantify the actual snow ablation amount. Finally we investigated the applicability of the mean tropospheric lapse rate to reproduce air temperature conditions at the glacier surface starting from data acquired by weather stations located outside the glacier area. We found that the mean tropospheric lapse rate allows for a good and reliable reconstruction of glacier air temperatures and that the choice of an appropriate temperature threshold in T-index models is a very important issue. From our study, the application of the +0.5 °C temperature threshold allows for a consistent quantification of snow ablation while, instead, for detecting the beginning of the snow melting processes a suitable threshold has proven to be at least -4.6 °C.

  14. Daily supplementation of D-ribose shows no therapeutic benefits in the MHC-I transgenic mouse model of inflammatory myositis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William Coley

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Current treatments for idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (collectively called myositis focus on the suppression of an autoimmune inflammatory response within the skeletal muscle. However, it has been observed that there is a poor correlation between the successful suppression of muscle inflammation and an improvement in muscle function. Some evidence in the literature suggests that metabolic abnormalities in the skeletal muscle underlie the weakness that continues despite successful immunosuppression. We have previously shown that decreased expression of a purine nucleotide cycle enzyme, adenosine monophosphate deaminase (AMPD1, leads to muscle weakness in a mouse model of myositis and may provide a mechanistic basis for muscle weakness. One of the downstream metabolites of this pathway, D-ribose, has been reported to alleviate symptoms of myalgia in patients with a congenital loss of AMPD1. Therefore, we hypothesized that supplementing exogenous D-ribose would improve muscle function in the mouse model of myositis. We treated normal and myositis mice with daily doses of D-ribose (4 mg/kg over a 6-week time period and assessed its effects using a battery of behavioral, functional, histological and molecular measures. RESULTS: Treatment with D-ribose was found to have no statistically significant effects on body weight, grip strength, open field behavioral activity, maximal and specific forces of EDL, soleus muscles, or histological features. Histological and gene expression analysis indicated that muscle tissues remained inflamed despite treatment. Gene expression analysis also suggested that low levels of the ribokinase enzyme in the skeletal muscle might prevent skeletal muscle tissue from effectively utilizing D-ribose. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with daily oral doses of D-ribose showed no significant effect on either disease progression or muscle function in the mouse model of myositis.

  15. Modeling spray drift and runoff-related inputs of pesticides to receiving water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xuyang; Luo, Yuzhou; Goh, Kean S

    2018-03-01

    Pesticides move to surface water via various pathways including surface runoff, spray drift and subsurface flow. Little is known about the relative contributions of surface runoff and spray drift in agricultural watersheds. This study develops a modeling framework to address the contribution of spray drift to the total loadings of pesticides in receiving water bodies. The modeling framework consists of a GIS module for identifying drift potential, the AgDRIFT model for simulating spray drift, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for simulating various hydrological and landscape processes including surface runoff and transport of pesticides. The modeling framework was applied on the Orestimba Creek Watershed, California. Monitoring data collected from daily samples were used for model evaluation. Pesticide mass deposition on the Orestimba Creek ranged from 0.08 to 6.09% of applied mass. Monitoring data suggests that surface runoff was the major pathway for pesticide entering water bodies, accounting for 76% of the annual loading; the rest 24% from spray drift. The results from the modeling framework showed 81 and 19%, respectively, for runoff and spray drift. Spray drift contributed over half of the mass loading during summer months. The slightly lower spray drift contribution as predicted by the modeling framework was mainly due to SWAT's under-prediction of pesticide mass loading during summer and over-prediction of the loading during winter. Although model simulations were associated with various sources of uncertainties, the overall performance of the modeling framework was satisfactory as evaluated by multiple statistics: for simulation of daily flow, the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) ranged from 0.61 to 0.74 and the percent bias (PBIAS) modeling framework will be useful for assessing the relative exposure from pesticides related to spray drift and runoff in receiving waters and the design of management practices for mitigating pesticide

  16. Sugar Deprivation Reduces Insemination of Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae), Despite Daily Recruitment of Adults, and Predicts Decline in Model Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    STONE, C. M.; TAYLOR, R. M.; ROITBERG, B. D.; FOSTER, W. A.

    2009-01-01

    Our research tests the hypothesis that the inability to sugar-feed reduces the insemination rate in mosquito populations. To test this, we measured the effects of sugar availability on cumulative insemination performance of male Anopheles gambiae Giles s.s. (Diptera: Culicidae) during 10-d periods of continual emergence of equal numbers of both sexes, and we evaluated the implications at the population level with a matrix population model. On each day of each of four replicates, 20 newly emerged mosquitoes of each sex were recruited into the populations within two mesocosms, large walk-in enclosures with simulated natural conditions. Each mesocosm contained a cage to replicate the experiment on a small scale. Scented sucrose was absent or present (control). A human host was available nightly as a bloodmeal source in both mesocosms. Sugar availability and enclosure size significantly influenced female insemination. In the mesocosms, with sugar 49.7% of the females were inseminated, compared with 10.9% of the females without sugar. In the small cages, the insemination rates were 76.0 and 23.5%, respectively. In the mesocosms, cumulative survival of females after 10 d was 51.6% with sugar and 25.6% without sugar. In the cages, female survival was 95 and 73%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis of the population projection matrix shows that both reduced male survival and reduced mating capability due to a lack of sugar contributed to lower insemination rates in females, and in the absence of sugar the insemination rate was lowered to an extent that led to population decline. PMID:19960677

  17. Two-stage model for time-varying effects of discrete longitudinal covariates with applications in analysis of daily process data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hanyu; Cranford, James A; Li, Runze; Buu, Anne

    2015-02-20

    This study proposes a generalized time-varying effect model that can be used to characterize a discrete longitudinal covariate process and its time-varying effect on a later outcome that may be discrete. The proposed method can be applied to examine two important research questions for daily process data: measurement reactivity and predictive validity. We demonstrate these applications using health risk behavior data collected from alcoholic couples through an interactive voice response system. The statistical analysis results show that the effect of measurement reactivity may only be evident in the first week of interactive voice response assessment. Moreover, the level of urge to drink before measurement reactivity takes effect may be more predictive of a later depression outcome. Our simulation study shows that the performance of the proposed method improves with larger sample sizes, more time points, and smaller proportions of zeros in the binary longitudinal covariate. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Modeling and simulation of sexual activity daily diary data of patients with female sexual arousal disorder treated with sildenafil citrate (Viagra).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claret, Laurent; Cox, Eugene H; McFadyen, Lynn; Pidgen, Alwyn; Johnson, Patrick J; Haughie, Scott; Boolell, Mitra; Bruno, Rene

    2006-08-01

    To develop a model to explore the dose-response of sildenafil citrate in patients with female sexual arousal disorder (FSAD) based on telephone sexual activity daily diary (TSADD) data obtained in double-blind, placebo controlled clinical studies. Data were available on 614 patients with FSAD. A parametric model (Weibull distribution) was developed to describe the probability density function of the time between sexual events. Orgasm satisfaction scores and overall sexual satisfaction scores were simultaneously modeled as ordered categorical variables. Simulations were performed to evaluate the expected clinical response in patients with FSAD. The expected time between sexual events was approximately 3.5 days. Satisfaction scores increased with time to achieve a plateau after 3 to 4 weeks on treatment. The expected probability of satisfying orgasm (score of 3 and higher) ranged from 34.7% for placebo to 41.6% for 100 mg sildenafil citrate. Treatment effect (difference from placebo) was 6.9% for 100 mg sildenafil citrate, ranging from 0.6 to 24.7% for testosterone levels of 0.1 to 4.0 pg/ml. The treatment effect in postmenopausal women was larger than in premenopausal women. A modeling and simulation framework to support drug development in FSAD was developed. Sildenafil citrate demonstrated a dose-dependent effect in patients with FSAD.

  19. A nonlinear support vector machine model with hard penalty function based on glowworm swarm optimization for forecasting daily global solar radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, He; Dong, Yao

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Eclat data mining algorithm is used to determine the possible predictors. • Support vector machine is converted into a ridge regularization problem. • Hard penalty selects the number of radial basis functions to simply the structure. • Glowworm swarm optimization is utilized to determine the optimal parameters. - Abstract: For a portion of the power which is generated by grid connected photovoltaic installations, an effective solar irradiation forecasting approach must be crucial to ensure the quality and the security of power grid. This paper develops and investigates a novel model to forecast 30 daily global solar radiation at four given locations of the United States. Eclat data mining algorithm is first presented to discover association rules between solar radiation and several meteorological factors laying a theoretical foundation for these correlative factors as input vectors. An effective and innovative intelligent optimization model based on nonlinear support vector machine and hard penalty function is proposed to forecast solar radiation by converting support vector machine into a regularization problem with ridge penalty, adding a hard penalty function to select the number of radial basis functions, and using glowworm swarm optimization algorithm to determine the optimal parameters of the model. In order to illustrate our validity of the proposed method, the datasets at four sites of the United States are split to into training data and test data, separately. The experiment results reveal that the proposed model delivers the best forecasting performances comparing with other competitors.

  20. A comprehensively quantitative method of evaluating the impact of drought on crop yield using daily multi-scale SPEI and crop growth process model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qianfeng; Wu, Jianjun; Li, Xiaohan; Zhou, Hongkui; Yang, Jianhua; Geng, Guangpo; An, Xueli; Liu, Leizhen; Tang, Zhenghong

    2017-04-01

    The quantitative evaluation of the impact of drought on crop yield is one of the most important aspects in agricultural water resource management. To assess the impact of drought on wheat yield, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) crop growth model and daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which is based on daily meteorological data, are adopted in the Huang Huai Hai Plain. The winter wheat crop yields are estimated at 28 stations, after calibrating the cultivar coefficients based on the experimental site data, and SPEI data was taken 11 times across the growth season from 1981 to 2010. The relationship between estimated yield and multi-scale SPEI were analyzed. The optimum time scale SPEI to monitor drought during the crop growth period was determined. The reference yield was determined by averaging the yields from numerous non-drought years. From this data, we propose a comprehensive quantitative method which can be used to predict the impact of drought on wheat yields by combining the daily multi-scale SPEI and crop growth process model. This method was tested in the Huang Huai Hai Plain. The results suggested that estimation of calibrated EPIC was a good predictor of crop yield in the Huang Huai Hai Plain, with lower RMSE (15.4 %) between estimated yield and observed yield at six agrometeorological stations. The soil moisture at planting time was affected by the precipitation and evapotranspiration during the previous 90 days (about 3 months) in the Huang Huai Hai Plain. SPEIG90 was adopted as the optimum time scale SPEI to identify the drought and non-drought years, and identified a drought year in 2000. The water deficit in the year 2000 was significant, and the rate of crop yield reduction did not completely correspond with the volume of water deficit. Our proposed comprehensive method which quantitatively evaluates the impact of drought on crop yield is reliable. The results of this study further our understanding

  1. User-Driven Workflow for Modeling, Monitoring, Product Development, and Flood Map Delivery Using Satellites for Daily Coverage Over Texas May-June 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, D. S.; Frye, S. W.; Wells, G. L.; Adler, R. F.; Brakenridge, R.; Bolten, J. D.; Murray, J. J.; Slayback, D. A.; Kirschbaum, D.; Wu, H.; Cappelaere, P. G.; Schumann, G.; Howard, T.; Flamig, Z.; Clark, R. A.; Stough, T.; Chini, M.; Matgen, P.

    2015-12-01

    Intense rainfall during late April and early May 2015 in Texas and Oklahoma led to widespread flooding in several river basins in that region. Texas state agencies were activated for the May-June floods and severe weather event that ensued for six weeks from May 8 until June 19 following Tropical Storm Bill. This poster depicts a case study where modeling flood potential informed decision making authorities for user-driven high resolution satellite acquisitions over the most critical areas and how experimental flood mapping techniques provided the capability for daily on-going monitoring of these events through the use of increased automation. Recent improvements in flood models resulting from higher frequency updates, better spatial resolution, and increased accuracy of now cast and forecast precipitation products coupled with advanced technology to improve situational awareness for decision makers. These advances enabled satellites to be tasked, data products to be developed and distributed, and feedback loops between the emergency authorities, satellite operators, and mapping researchers to deliver a daily stream of relevant products that informed deployment of emergency resources and improved management of the large-scale event across the local, state, and national levels. This collaboration was made possible through inter-agency cooperation on an international scale through the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites Flood Pilot activity that is supported in the USA by NASA, NOAA, and USGS and includes numerous civilian space agency assets from the European Space Agency along with national agencies from Italy, France, Germany, Japan, and others. The poster describes the inter-linking technology infrastructure, the development and delivery of mapping products, and the lessons learned for product improvement in the future.

  2. STOCHASTIC CHARACTERISTICS AND MODELING OF RELATIVE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Test

    deterministic in nature, and this has been a major constraint in achieving agricultural sustainability in most developing countries.To facilitate this study, 29 years information of the observed relative humidity of Ogun basin was obtained from the Federal ...

  3. Relational Model Conflicts in Knowledge Sharing Behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.J. van Baalen (Peter); J. van Dalen (Jan); J. van Malsen (Jorina)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThe distributed nature of organizational knowledge makes that knowledge sharing an important factor for unlocking its potential value. In practice, however, people may have different motivations for not sharing knowledge with colleagues, which in part may be due to the relational

  4. Relationships Among Nightly Sleep Quality, Daily Stress, and Daily Affect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaxton, Jessica M; Bergeman, Cindy S; Whitehead, Brenda R; Braun, Marcia E; Payne, Jessic D

    2017-05-01

    We explored the prospective, microlevel relationship between nightly sleep quality (SQ) and the subsequent day's stress on positive (PA) and negative affect (NA) as well as the moderating relationships between nightly SQ, subsequent stress, and subsequent PA on NA. We investigated whether age moderated these relationships. We collected 56 days of sleep, stress, and affect data using daily diary questionnaires (N = 552). We used multilevel modeling to assess relationships at the between- and within-person levels. Daily increases in SQ and decreases in stress interacted to predict higher daily PA and lower daily NA. Better SQ in older adults enhanced the benefits of PA on the stress-NA relationship more during times of low stress, whereas better sleep in younger adults enhanced the benefits of PA more during times of high stress. Between-person effects were stronger predictors of well-being outcomes than within-person variability. The combination of good SQ and higher PA buffered the impact of stress on NA. The moderating impact of age suggests that sleep and stress play different roles across adulthood. Targeting intervention and prevention strategies to improve SQ and enhance PA could disrupt the detrimental relationship between daily stress and NA. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Predicting and Mapping Daily Pan Evaporation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arunkumar, R.; Jothiprakash, V.; Sharma, Kirty

    2017-09-01

    In this study, Artificial Intelligence techniques such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Model Tree (MT) and Genetic Programming (GP) are used to develop daily pan evaporation time-series (TS) prediction and cause-effect (CE) mapping models. Ten years of observed daily meteorological data such as maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours, dew point temperature and pan evaporation are used for developing the models. For each technique, several models are developed by changing the number of inputs and other model parameters. The performance of each model is evaluated using standard statistical measures such as Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error, Normalized Mean Square Error and correlation coefficient (R). The results showed that daily TS-GP (4) model predicted better with a correlation coefficient of 0.959 than other TS models. Among various CE models, CE-ANN (6-10-1) resulted better than MT and GP models with a correlation coefficient of 0.881. Because of the complex non-linear inter-relationship among various meteorological variables, CE mapping models could not achieve the performance of TS models. From this study, it was found that GP performs better for recognizing single pattern (time series modelling), whereas ANN is better for modelling multiple patterns (cause-effect modelling) in the data.

  6. A field studies and modeling approach to develop organochlorine pesticide and PCB total maximum daily load calculations: Case study for Echo Park Lake, Los Angeles, CA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasquez, V.R., E-mail: vrvasquez@ucla.edu [Environmental Science and Engineering Program, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496 (United States); Curren, J., E-mail: janecurren@yahoo.com [Environmental Science and Engineering Program, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496 (United States); Lau, S.-L., E-mail: simlin@ucla.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496 (United States); Stenstrom, M.K., E-mail: stenstro@seas.ucla.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496 (United States); Suffet, I.H., E-mail: msuffet@ucla.edu [Environmental Science and Engineering Program, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496 (United States)

    2011-09-01

    Echo Park Lake is a small lake in Los Angeles, CA listed on the USA Clean Water Act Section 303(d) list of impaired water bodies for elevated levels of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in fish tissue. A lake water and sediment sampling program was completed to support the development of total maximum daily loads (TMDL) to address the lake impairment. The field data indicated quantifiable levels of OCPs and PCBs in the sediments, but lake water data were all below detection levels. The field sediment data obtained may explain the contaminant levels in fish tissue using appropriate sediment-water partitioning coefficients and bioaccumulation factors. A partition-equilibrium fugacity model of the whole lake system was used to interpret the field data and indicated that half of the total mass of the pollutants in the system are in the sediments and the other half is in soil; therefore, soil erosion could be a significant pollutant transport mode into the lake. Modeling also indicated that developing and quantifying the TMDL depends significantly on the analytical detection level for the pollutants in field samples and on the choice of octanol-water partitioning coefficient and bioaccumulation factors for the model. - Research highlights: {yields} Fugacity model using new OCP and PCB field data supports lake TMDL calculations. {yields} OCP and PCB levels in lake sediment were found above levels for impairment. {yields} Relationship between sediment data and available fish tissue data evaluated. {yields} Model provides approximation of contaminant sources and sinks for a lake system. {yields} Model results were sensitive to analytical detection and quantification levels.

  7. Modeling patterns in count data using loglinear and related models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    1995-12-01

    This report explains the use of loglinear and logit models, for analyzing Poisson and binomial counts in the presence of explanatory variables. The explanatory variables may be unordered categorical variables or numerical variables, or both. The report shows how to construct models to fit data, and how to test whether a model is too simple or too complex. The appropriateness of the methods with small data sets is discussed. Several example analyses, using the SAS computer package, illustrate the methods

  8. Building spatio-temporal database model based on ontological approach using relational database environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmood, N.; Burney, S.M.A.

    2017-01-01

    Everything in this world is encapsulated by space and time fence. Our daily life activities are utterly linked and related with other objects in vicinity. Therefore, a strong relationship exist with our current location, time (including past, present and future) and event through with we are moving as an object also affect our activities in life. Ontology development and its integration with database are vital for the true understanding of the complex systems involving both spatial and temporal dimensions. In this paper we propose a conceptual framework for building spatio-temporal database model based on ontological approach. We have used relational data model for modelling spatio-temporal data content and present our methodology with spatio-temporal ontological accepts and its transformation into spatio-temporal database model. We illustrate the implementation of our conceptual model through a case study related to cultivated land parcel used for agriculture to exhibit the spatio-temporal behaviour of agricultural land and related entities. Moreover, it provides a generic approach for designing spatiotemporal databases based on ontology. The proposed model is capable to understand the ontological and somehow epistemological commitments and to build spatio-temporal ontology and transform it into a spatio-temporal data model. Finally, we highlight the existing and future research challenges. (author)

  9. Winter precipitation characteristics in western US related to atmospheric river landfalls: observations and model evaluations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J.; Guan, B.; Waliser, D. E.; Ferraro, R. D.; Case, J. L.; Iguchi, T.; Kemp, E.; Putman, W.; Wang, W.; Wu, D.; Tian, B.

    2018-01-01

    Winter precipitation (PR) characteristics in western United States (WUS) related to atmospheric river (AR) landfalls are examined using the observation-based PRISM data. The observed AR-related precipitation characteristics are in turn used to evaluate model precipitation data from the NASA MERRA2 reanalysis and from seven dynamical downscaling simulations driven by the MERRA2. Multiple metrics including mean bias, Taylor diagram, and two skill scores are used to measure model performance for three climatological sub-regions in WUS, Pacific Northwest (PNW), Pacific Southwest (PSW) and Great Basin (GB). All model data well represent the winter-mean PR with spatial pattern correlations of 0.8 or higher with PRISM for the three sub-regions. Higher spatial resolutions and/or the use of spectral nudging generally yield higher skill scores in simulating the geographical distribution of PR for the entire winter. The PRISM data shows that the AR-related fraction of winter PR and associated daily PR PDFs in each region vary strongly for landfall locations; AR landfalls in the northern WUS coast (NC) affect mostly PNW while those in the southern WUS coast (SC) affect both PSW and GB. NC (SC) landfalls increase the frequency of heavy PR in PNW (PSW and GB) but reduce it in PSW (PNW). All model data reasonably represent these observed variations in the AR-related winter PR fractions and the daily PR PDFs according to AR landfall locations. However, unlike for the entire winter period, no systematic effects of resolution and/or spectral nudging are identified in these AR-related PR characteristics. Dynamical downscaling in this study generally yield positive added values to the MERRA2 PR in the AR-related PR fraction for most sub-regions and landfall locations, most noticeably for PSW by NU-WRF. The downscaling also generate positive added value in p95 for PNW, but negative values for PSW and GB due to overestimation of heavy precipitation events.

  10. The semiotics of control and modeling relations in complex systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joslyn, C

    2001-01-01

    We provide a conceptual analysis of ideas and principles from the systems theory discourse which underlie Pattee's semantic or semiotic closure, which is itself foundational for a school of theoretical biology derived from systems theory and cybernetics, and is now being related to biological semiotics and explicated in the relational biological school of Rashevsky and Rosen. Atomic control systems and models are described as the canonical forms of semiotic organization, sharing measurement relations, but differing topologically in that control systems are circularly and models linearly related to their environments. Computation in control systems is introduced, motivating hierarchical decomposition, hybrid modeling and control systems, and anticipatory or model-based control. The semiotic relations in complex control systems are described in terms of relational constraints, and rules and laws are distinguished as contingent and necessary functional entailments, respectively. Finally, selection as a meta-level of constraint is introduced as the necessary condition for semantic relations in control systems and models.

  11. Coping motives, negative moods, and time-to-drink: exploring alternative analytic models of coping motives as a moderator of daily mood-drinking covariation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littlefield, Andrew K; Talley, Amelia E; Jackson, Kristina M

    2012-12-01

    Affect regulation models of alcohol use posit individuals use alcohol to modify mood states. Importantly, these models hypothesize that individual differences in coping motives for drinking moderate the relation between drinking and negative moods. Despite consistently significant correlations among negative moods, coping motives, and alcohol involvement in numerous between-level studies, within-person analyses have yielded results inconsistent with theoretical models. Analytic techniques modeling time-to-drink have provided results more consistent with theory, though there remains a paucity of research using these methods. The purpose of the current study was to explore whether coping motives moderate the relation between negative moods and the immediacy of drinking using methodology outlined by Hussong (2007) and Armeli, Todd, Conner, and Tennen (2008). Overall, our study showed little evidence for hypothesized mood-motive-alcohol use relations, thus demonstrating that time-to-drink approaches may not provide more consistent support for these hypotheses. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  12. Performance of STICS model to predict rainfed corn evapotranspiration and biomass evaluated for 6 years between 1995 and 2006 using daily aggregated eddy covariance fluxes and ancillary measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattey, Elizabeth; Jégo, Guillaume; Bourgeois, Gaétan

    2010-05-01

    Verifying the performance of process-based crop growth models to predict evapotranspiration and crop biomass is a key component of the adaptation of agricultural crop production to climate variations. STICS, developed by INRA, was part of the models selected by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada to be implemented for environmental assessment studies on climate variations, because of its built-in ability to assimilate biophysical descriptors such as LAI derived from satellite imagery and its open architecture. The model prediction of shoot biomass was calibrated using destructive biomass measurements over one season, by adjusting six cultivar parameters and three generic plant parameters to define two grain corn cultivars adapted to the 1000-km long Mixedwood Plains ecozone. Its performance was then evaluated using a database of 40 years-sites of corn destructive biomass and yield. In this study we evaluate the temporal response of STICS evapotranspiration and biomass accumulation predictions against estimates using daily aggregated eddy covariance fluxes. The flux tower was located in an experimental farm south of Ottawa and measurements carried out over corn fields in 1995, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2006. Daytime and nighttime fluxes were QC/QA and gap-filled separately. Soil respiration was partitioned to calculate the corn net daily CO2 uptake, which was converted into dry biomass. Out of the six growing seasons, three (1995, 1998, 2002) had water stress periods during corn grain filling. Year 2000 was cool and wet, while 1996 had heat and rainfall distributed evenly over the season and 2006 had a wet spring. STICS can predict evapotranspiration using either crop coefficients, when wind speed and air moisture are not available, or resistance. The first approach provided higher prediction for all the years than the resistance approach and the flux measurements. The dynamic of evapotranspiration prediction of STICS was very good for the growing seasons without

  13. Families of Children with Chronic Illness and the Relational Family Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja Pate

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Families of children with chronic illness experience persistent stress. Facing the diagnosis and learning how to cope with it is a stressful experience not only for the child but also for the parents and for the whole family. The illness, with its unpredictability and treatment, disturbs their daily routine and threatens the whole family system. Parental involvement in the child’s disease management and their emotional support are crucial for effective coping and adaptation to the child’s chronic illness. The aim of this article is to present the importance of the parental role in these families through theoretical findings of the relational family model.

  14. Modeling daily gas exchange of a Douglas-fir forest : comparison of three stomatal conductance models with and without a soil water stress function

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijk, van M.T.; Dekker, S.C.; Bouten, W.; Bosveld, F.C.; Kohsiek, W.; Kramer, K.; Mohren, G.M.J.

    2000-01-01

    Modeling stomatal conductance is a key element in predicting tree growth and water use at the stand scale. We compared three commonly used models of stomatal conductance, the Jarvis-Loustau, Ball-Berry and Leuning models, for their suitability for incorporating soil water stress into their

  15. Applying the social relations model to self and peer evaluations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Greguras, G.J.; Robie, C.; Born, M.Ph.

    2001-01-01

    Peer evaluations of performance increasingly are being used to make organizational decisions and to provide individuals with performance related feedback. Using Kenny's social relations model (SRM), data from 14 teams of undergraduate students who completed performance ratings of themselves and

  16. Personality, relationship conflict, and teamwork-related mental models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vîrgă, D.; Curseu, P.L.; Maricuţoiu, L.; Sava, S.A.; Macsinga, I.; Măgurean, S.

    2014-01-01

    This study seeks to explore whether neuroticism, agreeableness, and conscientiousness moderate the influence of relationship conflict experienced in groups on changes in group members' evaluative cognitions related to teamwork quality (teamwork-related mental models). Data from 216 students, nested

  17. Daily and Compulsive Internet Use and Well-Being in Adolescence: A Diathesis-Stress Model Based on Big Five Personality Traits

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Aa, Niels; Overbeek, Geertjan; Engels, Rutger C. M. E.; Scholte, Ron H. J.; Meerkerk, Gert-Jan; Van den Eijnden, Regina J. J. M.

    2009-01-01

    This study examined the associations between adolescents' daily Internet use and low well-being (i.e., loneliness, low self-esteem, and depressive moods). We hypothesized that (a) linkages between high levels of daily Internet use and low well-being would be mediated by compulsive Internet use (CIU), and (b) that adolescents with low levels of…

  18. Daily and Compulsive Internet Use and Well-Being in Adolescence: A Diathesis-Stress Model Based on Big Five Personality Traits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aa, N. van der; Overbeek, G.J.; Engels, R.C.M.E.; Scholte, R.H.J.; Meerkerk, G.J.; Eijnden, R.J.J.M. van den

    2009-01-01

    This study examined the associations between adolescents' daily Internet use and low well-being (i.e., loneliness, low self-esteem, and depressive moods). We hypothesized that (a) linkages between high levels of daily Internet use and low well-being would be mediated by compulsive Internet use

  19. Daily bowel care program

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... gov/ency/patientinstructions/000133.htm Daily bowel care program To use the sharing features on this page, ... Work with your health care provider. Basic Bowel Program Keeping active helps prevent constipation. Try to walk, ...

  20. Lightship Daily Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observations taken on board lightships along the United States coasts from 1936 - 1983. Generally 4-6 observations daily. Also includes deck logs, which give...

  1. Tips for Daily Living

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Tips and Gadgets for Daily Activities Dressing Tips Shopping Tips Modifying the Bathroom Driving After Stroke Medication ... and resources. Find a group in your area . Online Support If there is not a support group ...

  2. Daily Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Several different government offices have published the Daily weather maps over its history. The publication has also gone by different names over time. The U.S....

  3. Tips for Daily Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... chapter Join our online community Tips for Daily Life Coping skills will help you handle day-to- ... challenges, maximize your independence and live a meaningful life with your diagnosis. Accepting changes Creating a coping ...

  4. DailyMed

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — DailyMed provides high quality information about marketed drugs. This information includes FDA labels (package inserts). This Web site provides health information...

  5. Modeling Approaches and Systems Related to Structured Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-02-01

    Lasdon 򒾂> and Maturana 򒾃> for surveys of several modern systems. A -6- N NN- %0 CAMPS (Lucas and Mitra 򒾁>) -- Computer Assisted Mathe- %l...583-589. MATURANA , S. 򒾃>. "Comparative Analysis of Mathematical Modeling Systems," informal note, Graduate School of Manage- ment, UCLA, February

  6. Prediction of daily spring hydrographs for future climatic scenarios based on an integrated numerical modelling approach: Application on a snow-governed semi- arid karst catchment area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doummar, J.; Kassem, A.; Gurdak, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    In the framework of a three-year USAID/NSF- funded PEER Science project, flow in a karst system in Lebanon (Assal Spring; discharge 0.2-2.5 m3/s yearly volume of 22-30 Mm3) dominated by snow and semi arid conditions was simulated using an integrated numerical model (Mike She 2016). The calibrated model (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.77) is based on high resolution input data (2014-2017) and detailed catchment characterization. The approach is to assess the influence of various model parameters on recharge signals in the different hydrological karst compartments (Atmosphere, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone) based on an integrated numerical model. These parameters include precipitation intensity and magnitude, temperature, snow-melt parameters, in addition to karst specific spatially distributed features such as fast infiltration points, soil properties and thickness, topographical slopes, Epikarst and thickness of unsaturated zone, and hydraulic conductivity among others. Moreover, the model is currently simulated forward using various scenarios for future climate (Global Climate Models GCM; daily downscaled temperature and precipitation time series for Lebanon 2020-2045) in order to depict the flow rates expected in the future and the effect of climate change on hydrographs recession coefficients, discharge maxima and minima, and total spring discharge volume . Additionally, a sensitivity analysis of individual or coupled major parameters allows quantifying their impact on recharge or indirectly on the vulnerability of the system (soil thickness, soil and rock hydraulic conductivity appear to be amongst the highly sensitive parameters). This study particularly unravels the normalized single effect of rain magnitude and intensity, snow, and temperature change on the flow rate (e.g., a change of temperature of 3° on the catchment yields a Residual Mean Square Error RMSE of 0.15 m3/s in the spring discharge and a 16% error in the total annual volume with

  7. Modelling the cost-effectiveness of pregabalin versus usual care in daily practice in the treatment of refractory generalised anxiety disorder in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Salas-Cansado, Marina; Álvarez, Enrique; Olivares, José M; Carrasco, Jose L; Ferro, M Belén; Rejas, Javier

    2013-06-01

    To model the cost-effectiveness (CEA) of the use of pregabalin versus usual care (UC) in outpatients with refractory generalised anxiety disorder (GAD) treated in daily practice in mental health settings in Spain. This CEA model used data extracted from a 6-month prospective non-interventional trial: the Amplification of Definition of ANxiety (ADAN) study, which was conducted to determine the cost-of-illness in GAD subjects. Refractory subjects were those who reported persistent symptoms of anxiety and showed suboptimal response in the Hamilton-anxiety scale (HAM-A ≥ 16) after a standard dose regimen of anxiolytics other than pregabalin, alone or in combination, over 6 months. The pregabalin arm was documented with data extracted from patients who received pregabalin in the study for the first time, added or replacing the existing therapy. In the UC arm, treatment might include one or more of the following: a serotonin selective reuptake inhibitor, a serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor, other anti-depressants, a benzodiazepine or an anti-epileptic drug other than pregabalin. The time horizon of the modelling was 6 months in the base-case scenario, and the National Health System perspective was chosen to calculate costs. Effectiveness was expressed as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, which were derived using the EQ-5D questionnaire, at baseline and end-of-trial visits. Results of the CEA model was expressed as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per QALY gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis using bootstrapping techniques was also carried out to obtain the cost-effectiveness plane and the corresponding acceptability curve. Data from a total of 429 subjects per arm (mean HAM-A score 25.7) meeting eligible criteria for inclusion in CEA modelling were extracted from the original trial. Compared with UC, pregabalin (average dose 218 mg/day) was associated with significantly higher QALY gain; 0.1209 ± 0.1030 versus 0.0994

  8. Negotiation as a Model for Teaching Public Relations Professionalism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders, Martha Dunagin; Perrigo, Eileen

    1998-01-01

    Shows that negotiation provides an effective model for teaching public relations professionalism. Describes how two professors in a public relations class used a negotiation model to teach students to simultaneously balance the two components of professionalism: ethical considerations and pragmatic, problem-solving measures. (SR)

  9. Longitudinal models in the behavioral and related sciences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Montfort, van K.; Satorra, A.; Oud, H.

    2007-01-01

    Longitudinal Models in the Behavioral and Related Sciences opens with the latest theoretical developments. In particular, the book addresses situations that arise due to the categorical nature of the data, issues related to state space modeling, and potential problems that may arise from network

  10. SU-E-J-257: A PCA Model to Predict Adaptive Changes for Head&neck Patients Based On Extraction of Geometric Features From Daily CBCT Datasets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chetvertkov, M; Siddiqui, F; Chetty, I; Kim, J; Kumarasiri, A; Liu, C; Gordon, J

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Using daily cone beam CTs (CBCTs) to develop principal component analysis (PCA) models of anatomical changes in head and neck (H&N) patients and to assess the possibility of using these prospectively in adaptive radiation therapy (ART). Methods: Planning CT (pCT) images of 4 H&N patients were deformed to model several different systematic changes in patient anatomy during the course of the radiation therapy (RT). A Pinnacle plugin was used to linearly interpolate the systematic change in patient for the 35 fraction RT course and to generate a set of 35 synthetic CBCTs. Each synthetic CBCT represents the systematic change in patient anatomy for each fraction. Deformation vector fields (DVFs) were acquired between the pCT and synthetic CBCTs with random fraction-to-fraction changes were superimposed on the DVFs. A patient-specific PCA model was built using these DVFs containing systematic plus random changes. It was hypothesized that resulting eigenDVFs (EDVFs) with largest eigenvalues represent the major anatomical deformations during the course of treatment. Results: For all 4 patients, the PCA model provided different results depending on the type and size of systematic change in patient’s body. PCA was more successful in capturing the systematic changes early in the treatment course when these were of a larger scale with respect to the random fraction-to-fraction changes in patient’s anatomy. For smaller scale systematic changes, random changes in patient could completely “hide” the systematic change. Conclusion: The leading EDVF from the patientspecific PCA models could tentatively be identified as a major systematic change during treatment if the systematic change is large enough with respect to random fraction-to-fraction changes. Otherwise, leading EDVF could not represent systematic changes reliably. This work is expected to facilitate development of population-based PCA models that can be used to prospectively identify significant

  11. Exercise and sleep predict personal resources in employees' daily lives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nägel, Inga J; Sonnentag, Sabine

    2013-11-01

    The present study investigates the interaction of exercise and sleep on state-like personal resources in employees' daily lives. Further, the study examines the association between state-like personal resources and emotional exhaustion. We conducted a diary study over five consecutive working days (total of 443 days) with 144 employees who answered daily online surveys after work and before bedtime. Multilevel modeling showed that exercise after work was positively related to the next day's personal resources when sleep duration during the night time was longer compared to other nights. Furthermore, personal resources positively related to lower emotional exhaustion after work on the next day. This study demonstrates that exercise and sleep may help to renew personal resources. Results stress the importance of balancing exercise and sleep in daily life. © 2013 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

  12. Loneliness, Daily Pain, and Perceptions of Interpersonal Events in Adults with Fibromyalgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Laurie Dempsey; Davis, Mary C.

    2014-01-01

    Objective This study examined whether individual differences in loneliness and/or daily exacerbations in loneliness relate to daily pain and frequency and perception of interpersonal events among individuals with fibromyalgia (FM). Methods 118 participants with FM completed electronic diaries each evening for 21 days to assess the occurrence of positive and negative interpersonal events, event appraisals, and pain. Multilevel modeling was used to examine relations of chronic and transitory loneliness to daily life outcomes, controlling for daily depressive symptoms. Results Chronic and transitory loneliness were associated with more frequent reports of negative and less frequent reports of positive interpersonal daily events, higher daily stress ratings and lower daily enjoyment ratings, and higher daily pain levels. Neither chronic nor transitory loneliness moderated the relations between daily negative events and either stress appraisals or pain. However, both chronic and transitory loneliness moderated the relation between daily positive events and enjoyment appraisals. Specifically, on days of greater numbers of positive events than usual, lonely people had larger boosts in enjoyment than did nonlonely people. Similarly, days with greater than usual numbers of positive events were related to larger boosts in enjoyment if an individual was also experiencing higher than usual loneliness levels. Conclusions Chronic and transient episodes of loneliness are associated with more negative daily social relations and pain. However, boosts in positive events yield greater boosts in day-to-day enjoyment of social relations for lonely versus nonlonely individuals, and during loneliness episodes, a finding that can inform future interventions for individuals with chronic pain. PMID:25180546

  13. ORCHIDEE-PEAT (revision 4596, a model for northern peatland CO2, water, and energy fluxes on daily to annual scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Qiu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Peatlands store substantial amounts of carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We present a modified version of the Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE land surface model for simulating the hydrology, surface energy, and CO2 fluxes of peatlands on daily to annual timescales. The model includes a separate soil tile in each 0.5° grid cell, defined from a global peatland map and identified with peat-specific soil hydraulic properties. Runoff from non-peat vegetation within a grid cell containing a fraction of peat is routed to this peat soil tile, which maintains shallow water tables. The water table position separates oxic from anoxic decomposition. The model was evaluated against eddy-covariance (EC observations from 30 northern peatland sites, with the maximum rate of carboxylation (Vcmax being optimized at each site. Regarding short-term day-to-day variations, the model performance was good for gross primary production (GPP (r2 =  0.76; Nash–Sutcliffe modeling efficiency, MEF  =  0.76 and ecosystem respiration (ER, r2 =  0.78, MEF  =  0.75, with lesser accuracy for latent heat fluxes (LE, r2 =  0.42, MEF  =  0.14 and and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE, r2 =  0.38, MEF  =  0.26. Seasonal variations in GPP, ER, NEE, and energy fluxes on monthly scales showed moderate to high r2 values (0.57–0.86. For spatial across-site gradients of annual mean GPP, ER, NEE, and LE, r2 values of 0.93, 0.89, 0.27, and 0.71 were achieved, respectively. Water table (WT variation was not well predicted (r2 < 0.1, likely due to the uncertain water input to the peat from surrounding areas. However, the poor performance of WT simulation did not greatly affect predictions of ER and NEE. We found a significant relationship between optimized Vcmax and latitude (temperature, which better reflects the spatial gradients of annual NEE than using an average Vcmax value.

  14. ORCHIDEE-PEAT (revision 4596), a model for northern peatland CO2, water, and energy fluxes on daily to annual scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Chunjing; Zhu, Dan; Ciais, Philippe; Guenet, Bertrand; Krinner, Gerhard; Peng, Shushi; Aurela, Mika; Bernhofer, Christian; Brümmer, Christian; Bret-Harte, Syndonia; Chu, Housen; Chen, Jiquan; Desai, Ankur R.; Dušek, Jiří; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Fortuniak, Krzysztof; Flanagan, Lawrence B.; Friborg, Thomas; Grygoruk, Mateusz; Gogo, Sébastien; Grünwald, Thomas; Hansen, Birger U.; Holl, David; Humphreys, Elyn; Hurkuck, Miriam; Kiely, Gerard; Klatt, Janina; Kutzbach, Lars; Largeron, Chloé; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima; Lund, Magnus; Lafleur, Peter M.; Li, Xuefei; Mammarella, Ivan; Merbold, Lutz; Nilsson, Mats B.; Olejnik, Janusz; Ottosson-Löfvenius, Mikaell; Oechel, Walter; Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Peichl, Matthias; Pirk, Norbert; Peltola, Olli; Pawlak, Włodzimierz; Rasse, Daniel; Rinne, Janne; Shaver, Gaius; Schmid, Hans Peter; Sottocornola, Matteo; Steinbrecher, Rainer; Sachs, Torsten; Urbaniak, Marek; Zona, Donatella; Ziemblinska, Klaudia

    2018-02-01

    Peatlands store substantial amounts of carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We present a modified version of the Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model for simulating the hydrology, surface energy, and CO2 fluxes of peatlands on daily to annual timescales. The model includes a separate soil tile in each 0.5° grid cell, defined from a global peatland map and identified with peat-specific soil hydraulic properties. Runoff from non-peat vegetation within a grid cell containing a fraction of peat is routed to this peat soil tile, which maintains shallow water tables. The water table position separates oxic from anoxic decomposition. The model was evaluated against eddy-covariance (EC) observations from 30 northern peatland sites, with the maximum rate of carboxylation (Vcmax) being optimized at each site. Regarding short-term day-to-day variations, the model performance was good for gross primary production (GPP) (r2 = 0.76; Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency, MEF = 0.76) and ecosystem respiration (ER, r2 = 0.78, MEF = 0.75), with lesser accuracy for latent heat fluxes (LE, r2 = 0.42, MEF = 0.14) and and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE, r2 = 0.38, MEF = 0.26). Seasonal variations in GPP, ER, NEE, and energy fluxes on monthly scales showed moderate to high r2 values (0.57-0.86). For spatial across-site gradients of annual mean GPP, ER, NEE, and LE, r2 values of 0.93, 0.89, 0.27, and 0.71 were achieved, respectively. Water table (WT) variation was not well predicted (r2 < 0.1), likely due to the uncertain water input to the peat from surrounding areas. However, the poor performance of WT simulation did not greatly affect predictions of ER and NEE. We found a significant relationship between optimized Vcmax and latitude (temperature), which better reflects the spatial gradients of annual NEE than using an average Vcmax value.

  15. A model to approximate lake temperature from gridded daily air temperature records and its application in risk assessment for the establishment of fish diseases in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thrush, M A; Peeler, E J

    2013-10-01

    Ambient water temperature is a key factor controlling the distribution and impact of disease in fish populations, and optimum temperature ranges have been characterised for the establishment of a number important aquatic diseases exotic to the UK. This study presents a simple regression method to approximate daily average surface water temperature in lakes of 0.5-15 ha in size across the UK using 5 km(2) gridded daily average air temperatures provided by the UK Meteorological Office. A Geographic information system (GIS) is used to present thematic maps of relative risk scores established for each grid cell based on the mean number of days per year that water temperature satisfied optimal criteria for the establishment of two economically important pathogens of cyprinid fish (koi herpesvirus (KHV) and spring viraemia of carp virus (SVCV)) and the distribution and density of fish populations susceptible to these viruses. High-density susceptible populations broadly overlap the areas where the temperature profiles are optimal for KHV (central and south-east England); however, few fish populations occur in areas where temperature profiles are most likely to result in the establishment of spring viremia of carp (SVC) (namely northern England and Scotland). The highest grid-cell risk scores for KHV and SVC were 7 and 6, respectively, out of a maximum score of 14. The proportion of grid cells containing susceptible populations with risk scores of 5 or more was 37% and 5% for KHV and SVC, respectively. This work demonstrates a risk-based approach to inform surveillance for exotic pathogens in aquatic animal health management, allowing efficient use of resources directed towards higher risk animals and geographic areas for early disease detection. The methodology could be used to examine the change in distribution of high-risk areas for both exotic and endemic fish diseases under different climate change scenarios. © 2012 Crown copyright Reproduced with the permission

  16. Discussion of various models related to cloud performance

    OpenAIRE

    Kande, Chaitanya Krishna

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the various models related to cloud computing. Knowing the metrics related to infrastructure is very critical to enhance the performance of cloud services. Various metrics related to clouds such as pageview response time, admission control and enforcing elasticity to cloud infrastructure are very crucial in analyzing the characteristics of the cloud to enhance the cloud performance.

  17. A study on relation of dietary fiber from different sources, acceptable daily intake of calcium and colorectal cancer of 30 to 45 years old.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dongjie; An, Yan; Zhu, Huifang; Yang, Libin

    2014-07-01

    This paper selects Jiashan, Zhejiang, the high incidence area of colorectal cancer in China, as research site and adopts case control as research method to study relative hazards of colorectal cancer, especially the relation between dietary factor and colorectal cancer. It makes a further understanding of the possible cause of high incidence of colorectal cancer in Jiashan in order to provide a scientific basis for the prevention of colorectal cancer.

  18. Chronic daily headaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fayyaz Ahmed

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Chronic Daily Headache is a descriptive term that includes disorders with headaches on more days than not and affects 4% of the general population. The condition has a debilitating effect on individuals and society through direct cost to healthcare and indirectly to the economy in general. To successfully manage chronic daily headache syndromes it is important to exclude secondary causes with comprehensive history and relevant investigations; identify risk factors that predict its development and recognise its sub-types to appropriately manage the condition. Chronic migraine, chronic tension-type headache, new daily persistent headache and medication overuse headache accounts for the vast majority of chronic daily headaches. The scope of this article is to review the primary headache disorders. Secondary headaches are not discussed except medication overuse headache that often accompanies primary headache disorders. The article critically reviews the literature on the current understanding of daily headache disorders focusing in particular on recent developments in the treatment of frequent headaches.

  19. Profissionais do sexo: sentidos produzidos no cotidiano de trabalho e aspectos relacionados ao HIV Sex professionals: HIV-related aspects and generating meanings in daily work

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Gomes Esposito

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Nesta pesquisa qualitativa foi analisado o processo de construção da subjetividade de nove profissionais do sexo entrevistadas, apreendendo o processo de produção de sentidos relacionados à contextualização do HIV em seu cotidiano de trabalho. Destas, quatro eram soropositivas. Foram identificados e analisados sete núcleos de significado (Família como desencadeadora e mantedora da atividade de profissional do sexo; Identidades diversas nos diferentes ambientes freqüentados: cisão trabalho x afetividade; Contradições vividas acerca do trabalho; AIDS como fator limitante dos prazeres em suas vidas e como empecilho para a continuidade do exercício de suas atividades; Fatores associados ao aumento da vulnerabilidade ao HIV; Serviço de Saúde como facilitador do processo de adesão ao tratamento e Entrevista como propiciadora de intervenções. Enquanto nas entrevistadas soronegativas predominaram sentimentos ambivalentes e contraditórios em relação à atividade, nas soropositivas foi observada uma polarização nos desprazeres desta atividade, inviabilizando sua continuidade após processo de adoecimento desencadeado pela AIDS.This qualitative research analyzes the construction process of subjectivity of nine sex professionals who have been interviewed, grasping the process of generating meanings in the context of HIV in their daily work. Amongst these nine women, four were HIV carriers. Seven nodes of signification were identified and analyzed (Family as an element that causes and maintains their activity as sex professionals; Varying identities in different frequented environments: separation of work from affectivity; Contradictions that were experienced concerning work; AIDS as a limiting factor for pleasure in their lives and as an impediment to continue to practice their activities; Factors associated with the increase of vulnerability to HIV; Health Care as a facilitator in the process of adhering to treatment and the

  20. Modelling gastric evacuation without meal size as a variable. A model applicable for the estimation of daily ration of cod (Gadus morhua L.) in the field

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Temming, Axel; Andersen, Niels Gerner

    1994-01-01

    S=stomach content, T=time after ingestion, R and B=constants. This model allows for various curve shapes, including linear (B=O) and exponential (B=1), and the curve shape (B) was estimated from the data. Meal size was included in the model by modifying the constant R=R′ × MD, with M=meal size...... in weight and D=constant. When meal size was included in the model, the resulting B values were strongly dependent on the food type and the estimated D values were negatively correlated with B: capelin, B=1.37, D= -1.16; herring, B=0.84, D= -0.57; and prawn, B=0.35, D= -0.14. When meal size was excluded...

  1. Prevalence of Dental Caries in relation to Body Mass Index, Daily Sugar Intake, and Oral Hygiene Status in 12-Year-Old School Children in Mathura City: A Pilot Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prahlad Gupta

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To correlate the prevalence of dental caries to body mass index, daily sugar intake, and oral hygiene status of 12-year-old school children of Mathura city. Material and Methods. The study design was cross-sectional and included 100 school children aged 12 years (n=50 boys and n=50 girls who were randomly selected from two schools based upon inclusion and exclusion criteria. Body weight/height was recorded and BMI was calculated and plotted on CDC-BMI for age growth charts/curves for boys and girls to obtain percentile ranking. Dental caries was recorded using WHO criteria. Oral hygiene status of the study subjects was assessed using oral hygiene index-simplified. Data regarding the daily sugar intake was recorded using 24-hour recall diet frequency chart. The data obtained was analysed using SPSS version 11.5 for windows. Result. Only 27 subjects were affected by caries. The mean DMFT/dmft was 0.37 ± 0.79 and 0.12 ± 0.60, respectively. Statistical analysis by means of a logistic regression model revealed that only oral hygiene status had a significant effect on caries prevalence (OR = 5.061, P=0.004, whereas daily sugar intake and body mass index had no significant effect. Conclusion. From the analysis, it was concluded that oral hygiene status had a significant effect on caries prevalence of 12-year-old school children of Mathura city.

  2. Daily Autonomy Support and Sexual Identity Disclosure Predicts Daily Mental and Physical Health Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legate, Nicole; Ryan, Richard M; Rogge, Ronald D

    2017-06-01

    Using a daily diary methodology, we examined how social environments support or fail to support sexual identity disclosure, and associated mental and physical health outcomes. Results showed that variability in disclosure across the diary period related to greater psychological well-being and fewer physical symptoms, suggesting potential adaptive benefits to selectively disclosing. A multilevel path model indicated that perceiving autonomy support in conversations predicted more disclosure, which in turn predicted more need satisfaction, greater well-being, and fewer physical symptoms that day. Finally, mediation analyses revealed that disclosure and need satisfaction explained why perceiving autonomy support in a conversation predicted greater well-being and fewer physical symptoms. That is, perceiving autonomy support in conversations indirectly predicted greater wellness through sexual orientation disclosure, along with feeling authentic and connected in daily interactions with others. Discussion highlights the role of supportive social contexts and everyday opportunities to disclose in affecting sexual minority mental and physical health.

  3. Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily), Version 3

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily) dataset integrates daily climate observations from approximately 30 different data sources. Version 3...

  4. Relational grounding facilitates development of scientifically useful multiscale models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lam Tai

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract We review grounding issues that influence the scientific usefulness of any biomedical multiscale model (MSM. Groundings are the collection of units, dimensions, and/or objects to which a variable or model constituent refers. To date, models that primarily use continuous mathematics rely heavily on absolute grounding, whereas those that primarily use discrete software paradigms (e.g., object-oriented, agent-based, actor typically employ relational grounding. We review grounding issues and identify strategies to address them. We maintain that grounding issues should be addressed at the start of any MSM project and should be reevaluated throughout the model development process. We make the following points. Grounding decisions influence model flexibility, adaptability, and thus reusability. Grounding choices should be influenced by measures, uncertainty, system information, and the nature of available validation data. Absolute grounding complicates the process of combining models to form larger models unless all are grounded absolutely. Relational grounding facilitates referent knowledge embodiment within computational mechanisms but requires separate model-to-referent mappings. Absolute grounding can simplify integration by forcing common units and, hence, a common integration target, but context change may require model reengineering. Relational grounding enables synthesis of large, composite (multi-module models that can be robust to context changes. Because biological components have varying degrees of autonomy, corresponding components in MSMs need to do the same. Relational grounding facilitates achieving such autonomy. Biomimetic analogues designed to facilitate translational research and development must have long lifecycles. Exploring mechanisms of normal-to-disease transition requires model components that are grounded relationally. Multi-paradigm modeling requires both hyperspatial and relational grounding.

  5. Relational grounding facilitates development of scientifically useful multiscale models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, C Anthony; Ropella, Glen E P; Lam, Tai ning; Gewitz, Andrew D

    2011-09-27

    We review grounding issues that influence the scientific usefulness of any biomedical multiscale model (MSM). Groundings are the collection of units, dimensions, and/or objects to which a variable or model constituent refers. To date, models that primarily use continuous mathematics rely heavily on absolute grounding, whereas those that primarily use discrete software paradigms (e.g., object-oriented, agent-based, actor) typically employ relational grounding. We review grounding issues and identify strategies to address them. We maintain that grounding issues should be addressed at the start of any MSM project and should be reevaluated throughout the model development process. We make the following points. Grounding decisions influence model flexibility, adaptability, and thus reusability. Grounding choices should be influenced by measures, uncertainty, system information, and the nature of available validation data. Absolute grounding complicates the process of combining models to form larger models unless all are grounded absolutely. Relational grounding facilitates referent knowledge embodiment within computational mechanisms but requires separate model-to-referent mappings. Absolute grounding can simplify integration by forcing common units and, hence, a common integration target, but context change may require model reengineering. Relational grounding enables synthesis of large, composite (multi-module) models that can be robust to context changes. Because biological components have varying degrees of autonomy, corresponding components in MSMs need to do the same. Relational grounding facilitates achieving such autonomy. Biomimetic analogues designed to facilitate translational research and development must have long lifecycles. Exploring mechanisms of normal-to-disease transition requires model components that are grounded relationally. Multi-paradigm modeling requires both hyperspatial and relational grounding.

  6. The whole spectrum of alcohol-related changes in the CNS. Practical MR and CT imaging guidelines for daily clinical use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keil, V.C.; Greschus, S.; Hadizadeh, D.R.; Schild, H.H.; Schneider, C.

    2015-01-01

    Alcohol addiction is the most common drug addiction. Alcohol passes both the placenta as well as the blood-brain barrier and is in multiple ways neurotoxic. Liver diseases and other systemic alcohol-related diseases cause secondary damage to the CNS. Especially in adolescents, even a single episode of severe alcohol intoxication (''binge drinking'') may result in life-threatening neurological consequences. Alcohol-related brain and spinal cord diseases derive from multiple causes including impairment of the cellular metabolism, often aggravated by hypovitaminosis, altered neurotransmission, myelination and synaptogenesis as well as alterations in gene expression. Modern radiological diagnostics, MRI in particular, can detect the resulting alterations in the CNS with a high sensitivity. Morphological aspects often strongly correlate with clinical symptoms of the patient. It is less commonly known that many diseases considered as ''typically alcohol-related'', such as Wernicke's encephalopathy, are to a large extent not alcohol-induced. Visible CNS alterations are thus non-pathognomonic and demand careful evaluation of differential diagnoses. This review article elucidates the pathogenesis, clinical aspects and radiological image features of the most common alcohol-related CNS diseases and their differential diagnoses.

  7. Cost-effectiveness of insulin pumps compared with multiple daily injections both provided with structured education for adults with type 1 diabetes: a health economic analysis of the Relative Effectiveness of Pumps over Structured Education (REPOSE) randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollard, Daniel John; Brennan, Alan; Dixon, Simon; Waugh, Norman; Elliott, Jackie; Heller, Simon; Lee, Ellen; Campbell, Michael; Basarir, Hasan; White, David

    2018-04-07

    To assess the long-term cost-effectiveness of insulin pumps and Dose Adjustment for Normal Eating (pumps+DAFNE) compared with multiple daily insulin injections and DAFNE (MDI+DAFNE) for adults with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) in the UK. We undertook a cost-utility analysis using the Sheffield Type 1 Diabetes Policy Model and data from the Relative Effectiveness of Pumps over Structured Education (REPOSE) trial to estimate the lifetime incidence of diabetic complications, intervention-based resource use and associated effects on costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). All economic analyses took a National Health Service and personal social services perspective and discounted costs and QALYs at 3.5% per annum. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed on the base case. Further uncertainties in the cost of pumps and the evidence used to inform the model were explored using scenario analyses. Eight diabetes centres in England and Scotland. Adults with T1DM who were eligible to receive a structured education course and did not have a strong clinical indication or a preference for a pump. Pumps+DAFNE. MDI+DAFNE. Incremental costs, incremental QALYs gained and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Compared with MDI+DAFNE, pumps+DAFNE was associated with an incremental discounted lifetime cost of +£18 853 (95% CI £6175 to £31 645) and a gain in discounted lifetime QALYs of +0.13 (95% CI -0.70 to +0.96). The base case mean ICER was £142 195 per QALY gained. The probability of pump+DAFNE being cost-effective using a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20 000 per QALY gained was 14.0%. All scenario and subgroup analyses examined indicated that the ICER was unlikely to fall below £30 000 per QALY gained. Our analysis of the REPOSE data suggests that routine use of pumps in adults without an immediate clinical need for a pump, as identified by National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, would not be cost-effective. ISRCTN61215213

  8. Note on off-shell relations in nonlinear sigma model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Gang; Du, Yi-Jian; Li, Shuyi; Liu, Hanqing

    2015-01-01

    In this note, we investigate relations between tree-level off-shell currents in nonlinear sigma model. Under Cayley parametrization, all odd-point currents vanish. We propose and prove a generalized U(1) identity for even-point currents. The off-shell U(1) identity given in http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/JHEP01(2014)061 is a special case of the generalized identity studied in this note. The on-shell limit of this identity is equivalent with the on-shell KK relation. Thus this relation provides the full off-shell correspondence of tree-level KK relation in nonlinear sigma model.

  9. Gratitude depends on the relational model of communal sharing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simão, Cláudia; Seibt, Beate

    2014-01-01

    We studied the relation between benefits, perception of social relationships and gratitude. Across three studies, we provide evidence that benefits increase gratitude to the extent to which one applies a mental model of a communal relationship. In Study 1, the communal sharing relational model, and no other relational models, predicted the amount of gratitude participants felt after imagining receiving a benefit from a new acquaintance. In Study 2, participants recalled a large benefit they had received. Applying a communal sharing relational model increased feelings of gratitude for the benefit. In Study 3, we manipulated whether the participant or another person received a benefit from an unknown other. Again, we found that the extent of communal sharing perceived in the relationship with the stranger predicted gratitude. An additional finding of Study 2 was that communal sharing predicted future gratitude regarding the relational partner in a longitudinal design. To conclude, applying a communal sharing model predicts gratitude regarding concrete benefits and regarding the relational partner, presumably because one perceives the communal partner as motivated to meet one's needs. Finally, in Study 3, we found in addition that being the recipient of a benefit without opportunity to repay directly increased communal sharing, and indirectly increased gratitude. These circumstances thus seem to favor the attribution of communal norms, leading to a communal sharing representation and in turn to gratitude. We discuss the importance of relational models as mental representations of relationships for feelings of gratitude.

  10. Two Studies on Twitter Networks and Tweet Content in Relation to Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS): Conversation, Information, and 'Diary of a Daily Life'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemsley, Bronwyn; Palmer, Stuart

    2016-01-01

    To date, there is no research examining how adults with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) or Motor Neurone Disease (MND) and severe communication disability use Twitter, nor the use of Twitter in relation to ALS/MND beyond its use for fundraising and raising awareness. In this paper we (a) outline a rationale for the use of Twitter as a method of communication and information exchange for adults with ALS/MND, (b) detail multiple qualitative and quantitative methods used to analyse Twitter networks and tweet content in the our studies, and (c) present the results of two studies designed to provide insights on the use of Twitter by an adult with ALS/MND and by #ALS and #MND hashtag communities in Twitter. We will also discuss findings across the studies, implications for health service providers in Twitter, and directions for future Twitter research in relation to ALS/MND.

  11. A Preliminary Prospective Study of an Escalation in ‘Maximum Daily Drinks', Fronto-Parietal Circuitry and Impulsivity-Related Domains in Young Adult Drinkers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worhunsky, Patrick D; Dager, Alecia D; Meda, Shashwath A; Khadka, Sabin; Stevens, Michael C; Austad, Carol S; Raskin, Sarah A; Tennen, Howard; Wood, Rebecca M; Fallahi, Carolyn R; Potenza, Marc N; Pearlson, Godfrey D

    2016-01-01

    Excessive alcohol use in young adults is associated with greater impulsivity and neurobiological alterations in executive control systems. The maximum number of drinks consumed during drinking occasions (‘MaxDrinks') represents a phenotype linked to vulnerability of alcohol use disorders, and an increase, or ‘escalation', in MaxDrinks may be indicative of greater risk for problematic drinking. Thirty-six young adult drinkers performed a Go/No-Go task during fMRI, completed impulsivity-related assessments, and provided monthly reports of alcohol use during a 12-month follow-up period. Participants were characterized by MaxDrinks at baseline and after follow-up, identifying 18 escalating drinkers and 18 constant drinkers. Independent component analysis was used to investigate functional brain networks associated with response inhibition, and relationships with principal component analysis derived impulsivity-related domains were examined. Greater baseline MaxDrinks was associated with an average reduction in the engagement of a right-lateralized fronto-parietal functional network, while an escalation in MaxDrinks was associated with a greater difference in fronto-parietal engagement between successful inhibitions and error trials. Escalating drinkers displayed greater impulsivity/compulsivity-related domain scores that were positively associated with fronto-parietal network engagement and change in MaxDrinks during follow-up. In young adults, an escalating MaxDrinks trajectory was prospectively associated with altered fronto-parietal control mechanisms and greater impulsivity/compulsivity scores. Continued longitudinal studies of MaxDrinks trajectories, functional network activity, and impulsivity/compulsivity-related features may lend further insight into an intermediate phenotype vulnerable for alcohol use and addictive disorders. PMID:26514582

  12. Toothbrushing: Do It Daily.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Texas Child Care, 1993

    1993-01-01

    Offers a practical guide for promoting daily toothbrushing in young children. Discusses the importance of proper dental care, explains the causes of tooth decay, describes proper dental care for infants and young children, recommends materials and teaching methods, and discusses visits to the dentist and the benefits of fluoride for dental health.…

  13. Forecasting Daily and Sessional Returns of the ISE-100 Index with Neural Network Models = Yapay Sinir Ağları Modelleri ile İMKB-100 Endeksinin Günlük ve Seanslık Getirilerinin Tahmin Edilmesi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emin AVCI

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Especially for the last decade, the neural network models have been applied to solve financial problems like portfolio construction and stock market forecasting. Among the alternative neural network models, the multilayer perceptron models are expected to be effective and widely applied in financial forecasting. This study examines the forecasting power multilayer perceptron models for daily and sessional returns of ISE-100 index. The findings imply that the multilayer perceptron models presented promising performance in forecasting the ISE-100 index returns. However, further emphasis should be placed on different input variables and model architectures in order to improve the forecasting performances.

  14. Computational Model for Internal Relative Humidity Distributions in Concrete

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wondwosen Ali

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A computational model is developed for predicting nonuniform internal relative humidity distribution in concrete. Internal relative humidity distribution is known to have a direct effect on the nonuniform drying shrinkage strains. These nonuniform drying shrinkage strains result in the buildup of internal stresses, which may lead to cracking of concrete. This may be particularly true at early ages of concrete since the concrete is relatively weak while the difference in internal relative humidity is probably high. The results obtained from this model can be used by structural and construction engineers to predict critical drying shrinkage stresses induced due to differential internal humidity distribution. The model uses finite elment-finite difference numerical methods. The finite element is used to space discretization while the finite difference is used to obtain transient solutions of the model. The numerical formulations are then programmed in Matlab. The numerical results were compared with experimental results found in the literature and demonstrated very good agreement.

  15. A Semi-Tychonic Model in General relativity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, George L.

    1998-10-01

    In the sixteenth century Tycho Brahe proposed a geocentric model of the solar system kinematically equivalent to the heliocentric Copernican model. There has been disagreement even among prominent relativists over whether or not relativity validates use of a geocentric model. Tycho's desire for a non-rotating earth cannot be satisfied, but we demonstrate here dynamical equivalence between a Copernican and a "semi-Tychonic" model by using an appropriate accelerated reference frame in general relativity. (The idea of absolute space in Newtonian mechanics makes use of Einstein's theory desirable even in the Newtonian approximation.) Optical questions are easily dealt with. Our treatment provides a satisfactory answer for the important historical question concerning geocentric and heliocentric models, and is also of pedagogic value. In addition, it gives insights into the real generality of general relativity, the nature of the relativistic equations of motion, and the analogy between coordinate and gauge transformations.

  16. Observability of market daily volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petroni, Filippo; Serva, Maurizio

    2016-02-01

    We study the price dynamics of 65 stocks from the Dow Jones Composite Average from 1973 to 2014. We show that it is possible to define a Daily Market Volatility σ(t) which is directly observable from data. This quantity is usually indirectly defined by r(t) = σ(t) ω(t) where the r(t) are the daily returns of the market index and the ω(t) are i.i.d. random variables with vanishing average and unitary variance. The relation r(t) = σ(t) ω(t) alone is unable to give an operative definition of the index volatility, which remains unobservable. On the contrary, we show that using the whole information available in the market, the index volatility can be operatively defined and detected.

  17. Development and application of QSAR models for mechanisms related to endocrine disruption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildgaard Rosenberg, Sine

    is a background section, comprising 1) an introduction to the endocrine system with a focus on thyroid hormones (THs) and their essential function in neurodevelopment as well as a description of how chemicals may interference with endocrine mechanisms and cause adverse effects, 2) an introduction to the applied......Humans are daily exposed to a wide variety of man-made chemicals through food, consumer products, water, air inhalation etc. For the main part of these chemicals no or only very limited information is available on their potential to cause endocrine disruption. Traditionally such information has...... information on the mode of action of chemicals in a faster and cheaper way. The main purpose in this PhD project was to develop QSAR models for mechanisms related to endocrine disruption and apply the models to predict 10,000s of chemicals to which humans are potentially exposed. The first part of the thesis...

  18. Personality, Relationship Conflict, and Teamwork-Related Mental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vîrgă, Delia; CurŞeu, Petru Lucian; Maricuţoiu, Laurenţiu; Sava, Florin A.; Macsinga, Irina; Măgurean, Silvia

    2014-01-01

    This study seeks to explore whether neuroticism, agreeableness, and conscientiousness moderate the influence of relationship conflict experienced in groups on changes in group members' evaluative cognitions related to teamwork quality (teamwork-related mental models). Data from 216 students, nested in 48 groups were analyzed using a multilevel modeling approach. Our results show that the experience of relationship conflict leads to a negative shift from the pre-task to the post-task teamwork-related mental models. Moreover, the results indicate that conscientiousness buffered the negative association between relationship conflict and the change in teamwork-related mental models. Our results did not support the hypothesized moderating effect of agreeableness and show that the detrimental effect of relationship conflict on the shift in teamwork-related mental models is accentuated for group members scoring low rather than high on neuroticism. These findings open new research venues for exploring the association between personality, coping styles and change in teamwork-related mental models. PMID:25372143

  19. Personality, relationship conflict, and teamwork-related mental models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vîrgă, Delia; Curşeu, Petru Lucian; CurŞeu, Petru Lucian; Maricuţoiu, Laurenţiu; Sava, Florin A; Macsinga, Irina; Măgurean, Silvia

    2014-01-01

    This study seeks to explore whether neuroticism, agreeableness, and conscientiousness moderate the influence of relationship conflict experienced in groups on changes in group members' evaluative cognitions related to teamwork quality (teamwork-related mental models). Data from 216 students, nested in 48 groups were analyzed using a multilevel modeling approach. Our results show that the experience of relationship conflict leads to a negative shift from the pre-task to the post-task teamwork-related mental models. Moreover, the results indicate that conscientiousness buffered the negative association between relationship conflict and the change in teamwork-related mental models. Our results did not support the hypothesized moderating effect of agreeableness and show that the detrimental effect of relationship conflict on the shift in teamwork-related mental models is accentuated for group members scoring low rather than high on neuroticism. These findings open new research venues for exploring the association between personality, coping styles and change in teamwork-related mental models.

  20. Model experiments related to outdoor propagation over an earth berm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Karsten Bo

    1994-01-01

    A series of scale model experiments related to outdoor propagation over an earth berm is described. The measurements are performed with a triggered spark source. The results are compared with data from an existing calculation model based upon uniform diffraction theory. Comparisons are made...

  1. Relative effectiveness of assertive training, modelling and their ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study investigated the Relative Effectiveness of Assertive Training (AT), modelling (M) and a combination of Assertive Training and Modelling (AT & M) techniques in improving the social skills of primary school isolates and consequently reduce their isolate behaviour. The study is a quasi experimental research that ...

  2. Bianchi type IX string cosmological model in general relativity

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. We have investigated Bianchi type IX string cosmological models in general relativity. To get a determinate solution, we have assumed a condition p = λ i.e. rest energy density for a cloud of strings is equal to the string tension density. The various physical and geometrical aspects of the models are also discussed.

  3. Bianchi type IX string cosmological model in general relativity

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We have investigated Bianchi type IX string cosmological models in general relativity. To get a determinate solution, we have assumed a condition ρ= i.e. rest energy density for a cloud of strings is equal to the string tension density. The various physical and geometrical aspects of the models are also discussed.

  4. relative effectiveness of assertive training, modelling and their

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Elizabeth Egbochuku

    Imo State University. Owerri e-mail: timasy.ikenegbu@yahoo.com. Abstract. The study investigated the Relative Effectiveness of Assertive Training (AT), modelling (M) and ... conversation skills; assertiveness skills, play interaction skills; self-related ... possession of poor, inefficient or inadequate social skills, low self-esteem,.

  5. Applying the social relations model to self and peer evaluations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.J. Greguras; C. Robie; M.Ph. Born (Marise)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractPeer evaluations of performance increasingly are being used to make organizational decisions and to provide individuals with performance related feedback. Using Kenny’s social relations model (SRM), data from 14 teams of undergraduate students who completed performance ratings of

  6. Latent Stochastic Actor Oriented Models for Relational Event Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-15

    L-SAOMs for Relational Events Latent Stochastic Actor Oriented Models for Relational Event Data J.A. Lospinoso12 J.H. Koskinen2 T.A.B. Snijders2......PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) US

  7. The Social Relations Model in Family Studies: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichelsheim, Veroni I.; Dekovic, Maja; Buist, Kirsten L.; Cook, William L.

    2009-01-01

    The Social Relations Model (SRM) allows for examination of family relations on three different levels: the individual level (actor and partner effects), the dyadic level (relationship effects), and the family level (family effect). The aim of this study was to present a systematic review of SRM family studies and identify general patterns in the…

  8. Chronic job burnout and daily functioning: A theoretical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnold B. Bakker

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we discuss the individual employee's role in the development of his/her job burnout. We review the antecedents and consequences of burnout, and propose a model with chronic burnout as a moderator of daily functioning in the workplace. Specifically, we argue that chronic burnout strengthens the loss cycle of daily job demands, daily exhaustion, and daily self-undermining. Additionally, we argue that chronic burnout weakens the gain cycle of daily job resources, daily work engagement, and daily job crafting. We conclude that employees with high levels of burnout need help in structurally changing their working conditions and health status.

  9. Breakfast intake among adults with type 2 diabetes: influence on daily energy intake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvandi, Soghra; Schootman, Mario; Racette, Susan B

    2015-08-01

    To assess the association between breakfast energy and total daily energy intake among individuals with type 2 diabetes. Cross-sectional study. Daily energy intake was computed from a 24 h dietary recall. Multiple regression models were used to estimate the association between daily energy intake (dependent variable) and quartiles of energy intake at breakfast (independent variable), expressed in either absolute or relative (percentage of total daily energy intake) terms. Orthogonal polynomial contrasts were used to test for linear and quadratic trends. Models were controlled for sex, age, race/ethnicity, BMI, physical activity and smoking. In addition, we used separate multiple regression models to test the effect of quartiles of absolute and relative breakfast energy on energy intake at lunch, dinner and snacks. The 1999-2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Participants aged ≥30 years with self-reported history of diabetes (n 1146). Daily energy intake increased as absolute breakfast energy intake increased (linear trend, Pbreakfast energy intake increased (linear trend, Pbreakfast intake had no associations with energy intake at subsequent meals, higher quartiles of relative breakfast intake were associated with lower energy intake during all subsequent meals and snacks (Pbreakfast that provided less energy or comprised a greater proportion of daily energy intake was associated with lower total daily energy intake in adults with type 2 diabetes.

  10. Sclerochronological records and daily microgrowth of the Peruvian scallop (Argopecten purpuratus, Lamarck, 1819) related to environmental conditions in Paracas Bay, Pisco, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre Velarde, Arturo; Flye-Sainte-Marie, Jonathan; Mendo, Jaime; Jean, Fred

    2015-05-01

    We investigated the rhythm of micro-striae formation in the shell of Argopecten purpuratus and environmental influence on micro-growth increments by monitoring growth over a 98-day period between April and July 2007 under bottom and suspended culture (2 m above the bottom) rearing conditions. The transfer of individuals to the study site induced the formation of a notable growth mark that allowed us to count the number of micro-striae formed between transfer and sampling dates. Micro-striae counts showed a deposition rate of one stria per day independent of rearing condition. This result allowed us to analyse the relationships between growth increments and environmental conditions. We therefore examined the deviations between observed growth rates and growth rates predicted from a Von Bertalanffy growth function. Cross-correlation analysis revealed significant correlations, without time-lag, between these deviations and both particulate organic carbon and nitrogen concentrations in the bottom treatment. Additionally, we observed negative correlations with temperature and current speed at this depth with time-lags of 1 and 10 days respectively. In the suspended treatment, we observed a significant negative correlation with temperature, only with a 12-day lag-time. Our results show that growth response to environmental variability is not always instantaneous. This delay can be explained by the time delay over which metabolic processes need to be performed (e.g. digestion, use/movements of reserves, growth, reproduction). Further modeling studies could help to better understand these processes.

  11. A note on the evolution of the daily pattern of thermal comfort-related micrometeorological parameters in small urban sites in Athens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charalampopoulos, Ioannis; Tsiros, Ioannis; Chronopoulou-Sereli, Aikaterini; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2015-09-01

    Studies on human thermal comfort in urban areas typically quantify and assess the influence of the atmospheric parameters studying the values and their patterns of the selected index or parameter. In this paper, the interpretation tools are the first derivative of the selected parameters (∆Parameter/∆t) and the violin plots. Using these tools, the effect of sites' configuration on thermal conditions was investigated. Both derivatives and violin plots indicated the ability of vegetation to act as a buffer to the rapid changes of air temperature, mean radiant temperature, and the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). The study is focused on the "thermal extreme" seasons of winter (December, January, and February) and summer (June, July, and August) during a 3-year period of measurements in five selected sites under calm wind and sunny conditions. According to the results, the absence of vegetation leads to high derivative values whereas the existence of dense vegetation tends to keep the parameters' values relatively low, especially under hot weather conditions.

  12. The Daily Selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skjold, Else

    2015-01-01

    In this PhD thesis, The Daily Selection, I will be addressing the overall question of how research on wardrobes can contribute to a more effective connection between the production and the consumption of dress objects. The thesis builds on exemplary studies of people in their wardrobes, with the ......In this PhD thesis, The Daily Selection, I will be addressing the overall question of how research on wardrobes can contribute to a more effective connection between the production and the consumption of dress objects. The thesis builds on exemplary studies of people in their wardrobes...... are appropriated and used in the wardrobes of informants. In this way, I point to discrepancies between the production and the dissemination of dress objects that take place in the fashion industry, and to the ways that people use and experience these objects in their everyday lives. In Part III, I conduct...

  13. Association of daily physical activity level with health-related factors by gender and age-specific differences among Korean adults based on the sixth (2014-2015) Korea national health and nutrition examination survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Nana; Park, Hun-Young; Park, Mi-Young; Hwang, Yoon-Young; Lee, Chi-Ho; Han, Jin-Soo; So, Jaemoo; Kim, Jisu; Park, Jonghoon; Lim, Kiwon

    2017-06-30

    This study examined the effects of daily physical activity level on health-related factors according to gender and identified age-specific differences among Korean adults. Using data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey VI (2014-2015), we selected adults aged 19-64 years who participated in both a health examination and health interview survey. The study included 6,457 participants 19-64 years of age (2,611 men, 3,846 women). Assessment of the differences in health-related factors according to age and physical activity in men and women by repeated two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) revealed significant interaction effects on total cholesterol (TC) and triglyceride (TG) levels and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) in male participants, but there were no significant interaction effects for any health-related factors in female participants. The group of female participants aged 40-64 years with daily physical activity levels over 200 kcal showed a significantly increased prevalence of 46% for dyslipidemia compared to that in female participants with daily physical activity levels below 200 kcal. Physical activity was positively correlated with weight and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels in men 19-39 years of age, compared to weight, waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), and DBP in men 40-64 years of age, and weight, WC, BMI, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and triglyceride (TG) levels in women 19-39 years of age. In women 40- 64 years of age, physical activity was especially significantly positively correlated with weight, BMI, HDL-C and negatively correlated with fasting glucose and TG levels. In male and female participants, the 40-64-year age group showed negative results for health-related factors compared to those in the 19-39-year age group. The higher the weight, WC, BMI, the higher is the physical activity level. Physical activity levels were significantly positively correlated with health-related variables

  14. Infinite Multiple Membership Relational Modeling for Complex Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Hansen, Lars Kai

    Learning latent structure in complex networks has become an important problem fueled by many types of networked data originating from practically all fields of science. In this paper, we propose a new non-parametric Bayesian multiplemembership latent feature model for networks. Contrary to existing...... multiplemembership models that scale quadratically in the number of vertices the proposedmodel scales linearly in the number of links admittingmultiple-membership analysis in large scale networks. We demonstrate a connection between the single membership relational model and multiple membership models and show...

  15. Forecasting daily patient volumes in the emergency department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Spencer S; Thomas, Alun; Evans, R Scott; Welch, Shari J; Haug, Peter J; Snow, Gregory L

    2008-02-01

    Shifts in the supply of and demand for emergency department (ED) resources make the efficient allocation of ED resources increasingly important. Forecasting is a vital activity that guides decision-making in many areas of economic, industrial, and scientific planning, but has gained little traction in the health care industry. There are few studies that explore the use of forecasting methods to predict patient volumes in the ED. The goals of this study are to explore and evaluate the use of several statistical forecasting methods to predict daily ED patient volumes at three diverse hospital EDs and to compare the accuracy of these methods to the accuracy of a previously proposed forecasting method. Daily patient arrivals at three hospital EDs were collected for the period January 1, 2005, through March 31, 2007. The authors evaluated the use of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, time series regression, exponential smoothing, and artificial neural network models to forecast daily patient volumes at each facility. Forecasts were made for horizons ranging from 1 to 30 days in advance. The forecast accuracy achieved by the various forecasting methods was compared to the forecast accuracy achieved when using a benchmark forecasting method already available in the emergency medicine literature. All time series methods considered in this analysis provided improved in-sample model goodness of fit. However, post-sample analysis revealed that time series regression models that augment linear regression models by accounting for serial autocorrelation offered only small improvements in terms of post-sample forecast accuracy, relative to multiple linear regression models, while seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, exponential smoothing, and artificial neural network forecasting models did not provide consistently accurate forecasts of daily ED volumes. This study confirms the widely held belief that daily demand for ED services is characterized by

  16. Present status of the VMI and related models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scharff-Goldhaber, G.

    1980-05-01

    This article traces the evolution of the Variable Moment of Inertia model in its relation to the shell model, the Bohr-Mottelson model and the Interacting Boson Model. The discovery of a new type of spectrum, that of pseudomagic nuclei (isobars of doubly magic nuclei) is reported, and an explanation for their dynamics is suggested. The type of rotational motion underlying the ground state band of an e-e nucleus is shown to depend on whether the minimum number of valence nucleon pairs of one kind (neutrons or protons) is less than or equal to 2 or > 2. In the former case the alpha-dumbbell model holds; in the latter the two-fluid model

  17. Relief of depression and pain improves daily functioning and quality of life in patients with major depressive disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ching-Hua; Yen, Yung-Chieh; Chen, Ming-Chao; Chen, Cheng-Chung

    2013-12-02

    The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of depression relief and pain relief on the improvement in daily functioning and quality of life (QOL) for depressed patients receiving a 6-week treatment of fluoxetine. A total of 131 acutely ill inpatients with major depressive disorder (MDD) were enrolled to receive 20mg of fluoxetine daily for 6 weeks. Depression severity, pain severity, daily functioning, and health-related QOL were assessed at baseline and again at week 6. Depression severity, pain severity, and daily functioning were assessed using the 17-item Hamilton Depression Rating Scale, the Short-Form 36 (SF-36) Body Pain Index, and the Work and Social Adjustment Scale. Health-related QOL was assessed by three primary domains of the SF-36, including social functioning, vitality, and general health perceptions. Pearson's correlation and structural equation modeling were used to examine relationships among the study variables. Five models were proposed. In model 1, depression relief alone improved daily functioning and QOL. In model 2, pain relief alone improved daily functioning and QOL. In model 3, depression relief, mediated by pain relief, improved daily functioning and QOL. In model 4, pain relief, mediated by depression relief, improved daily functioning and QOL. In model 5, both depression relief and pain relief improved daily functioning and QOL. One hundred and six patients completed all the measures at baseline and at week 6. Model 5 was the most fitted structural equation model (χ(2) = 8.62, df = 8, p = 0.376, GFI = 0.975, AGFI = 0.935, TLI = 0.992, CFI = 0.996, RMSEA = 0.027). Interventions which relieve depression and pain improve daily functioning and QOL among patients with MDD. The proposed model can provide quantitative estimates of improvement in treating patients with MDD. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. The stress of food allergy issues in daily life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peniamina, Rana L; Mirosa, Miranda; Bremer, Philip; Conner, Tamlin S

    2016-06-01

    Food allergies are a growing health concern, but their implications for daily psychological functioning are unknown. This micro-longitudinal study investigated the daily frequency of food allergy issues and how this related to experiences of stress, mood and physical energy. One hundred and eight adults with physician-diagnosed food allergies completed an initial Internet survey followed by a 2-week Internet daily diary survey. The initial survey collected socio-demographic and food allergy information. The daily survey collected information about the participants' experiences of stress, mood, physical energy and food allergy issues during that day. Commonly experienced allergy issues included negative physical symptoms, higher food prices, anxiety about safety of food, trouble maintaining a healthy diet and anxiety/stress at social occasions. Furthermore, multilevel modelling analyses showed that stress and negative mood were significantly higher on days with more allergy issues. Older adults experienced lower positive mood and physical energy on days with more issues. This is the first study to incorporate near to real-time tracking to examine the frequency of food allergy issues and the implications for daily psychological functioning. Targeting the issues we identified could reduce stress in patients with food allergies and improve their overall quality of life.

  19. Validation of daily increments periodicity in otoliths of spotted gar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snow, Richard A.; Long, James M.; Frenette, Bryan D.

    2017-01-01

    Accurate age and growth information is essential in successful management of fish populations and for understanding early life history. We validated daily increment deposition, including the timing of first ring formation, for spotted gar (Lepisosteus oculatus) through 127 days post hatch. Fry were produced from hatchery-spawned specimens, and up to 10 individuals per week were sacrificed and their otoliths (sagitta, lapillus, and asteriscus) removed for daily age estimation. Daily age estimates for all three otolith pairs were significantly related to known age. The strongest relationships existed for measurements from the sagitta (r2 = 0.98) and the lapillus (r2 = 0.99) with asteriscus (r2 = 0.95) the lowest. All age prediction models resulted in a slope near unity, indicating that ring deposition occurred approximately daily. Initiation of ring formation varied among otolith types, with deposition beginning 3, 7, and 9 days for the sagitta, lapillus, and asteriscus, respectively. Results of this study suggested that otoliths are useful to estimate daily age of spotted gar juveniles; these data may be used to back calculate hatch dates, estimate early growth rates, and correlate with environmental factor that influence spawning in wild populations. is early life history information will be valuable in better understanding the ecology of this species. 

  20. Daily Self-Disclosure and Sleep in Couples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kane, Heidi S.; Slatcher, Richard B.; Reynolds, Bridget M.; Repetti, Rena L.; Robles, Theodore F.

    2014-01-01

    Objective An emerging literature provides evidence for the association between romantic relationship quality and sleep, an important factor in health and well-being. However, we still know very little about the specific relationship processes that affect sleep behavior. Therefore, the goal of this study was to examine how self-disclosure, an important relational process linked to intimacy, relationship satisfaction and health, is associated with sleep behavior. Method As part of a larger study of family processes, wives (n=46) and husbands (n=38) from 46 cohabiting families completed 56 days of daily diaries. Spouses completed evening diaries assessing daily self-disclosure, relationship satisfaction, and mood and morning diaries assessing the prior night's sleep. Multilevel modeling was used to explore the effects of both daily variation in and average levels across the 56 days of self-disclosure on sleep. Results Daily variation in self-disclosure predicted sleep outcomes for wives, but not for husbands. On days when wives self-disclosed more to their spouses than their average level, their subjective sleep quality and sleep efficiency that night improved. Furthermore, daily self-disclosure buffered the negative effect of daily negative mood on sleep latency for wives, but not husbands. In contrast, higher average levels of self-disclosure predicted less waking during the night for husbands, but not for wives. Conclusion The association between self-disclosure and sleep is one mechanism by which daily relationship functioning may influence health and well-being. Gender may play a role in how self-disclosure is associated with sleep. PMID:25068453

  1. Thermodynamics of Paint Related Systems with Engineering Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindvig, Thomas; Michelsen, Michael Locht; Kontogeorgis, Georgios

    2001-01-01

    to solid surfaces and drying. Many engineering models have been applied over the last decades for solutions with commoditity polymers. In this work the performance of some of these models is investigated for paint-related systems, focusing on those drying by the so-called " lacquer mechanism " (evaporation......Paints are complex materials composed of polymers (binders) dissolved in one or more solvents, pigments, and other