WorldWideScience

Sample records for model relating daily

  1. Stochastic daily modeling of arctic tundra ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erler, A.; Epstein, H. E.; Frazier, J.

    2011-12-01

    ArcVeg is a dynamic vegetation model that has simulated interannual variability of production and abundance of arctic tundra plant types in previous studies. In order to address the effects of changing seasonality on tundra plant community composition and productivity, we have uniquely adapted the model to operate on the daily timescale. Each section of the model-weather generation, nitrogen mineralization, and plant growth dynamics-are driven by daily fluctuations in simulated temperature conditions. These simulation dynamics are achieved by calibrating stochastic iterative loops and mathematical functions with raw field data. Air temperature is the fundamental driver in the model, parameterized by climate data collected in the field across numerous arctic tundra sites, and key daily statistics are extracted (mean and standard deviation of temperature for each day of the year). Nitrogen mineralization is calculated as an exponential function from the simulated temperature. The seasonality of plant growth is driven by the availability of nitrogen and constrained by historical patterns and dynamics of the remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), as they pertain to the seasonal onset of growth. Here we describe the methods used for daily weather generation, nitrogen mineralization, and the daily competition among twelve plant functional types for nitrogen and subsequent growth. This still rather simple approach to vegetation dynamics has the capacity to generate complex relationships between seasonal patterns of temperature and arctic tundra vegetation community structure and function.

  2. Modelling erosion on a daily basis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pikha Shrestha, Dhruba; Jetten, Victor

    2016-04-01

    Effect of soil erosion causing negative impact on ecosystem services and food security is well known. To assess annual erosion rates various empirical models have been extensively used in all the climatic regions. While these models are simple to operate and do not require lot of input data, the effect of extreme rain is not taken into account in the annual estimations. For analysing the effects of extreme rain the event- based models become handy. These models can simulate detail erosional processes including particle detachment, transportation and deposition of sediments during a storm. But they are not applicable for estimating annual erosion rates. Moreover storm event data may not be available everywhere which prohibits their extensive use. In this paper we describe a method by adapting the revised MMF model to assess erosion on daily basis so that the effects of extreme rains are taken into account. We couple it to a simple surface soil moisture balance on a daily basis and include estimation of daily vegetation cover changes. Annual soil loss is calculated by adding daily erosion rates. We compare the obtained results with that obtained from applying the revised MMF model in a case study in the Mamora plateau in northwest Morocco which is affected by severe gully formation. The results show clearly the effects of exceptional rain in erosional processes which cannot be captured in an annual model.

  3. Global daily reference evapotranspiration modeling and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senay, G.B.; Verdin, J.P.; Lietzow, R.; Melesse, Assefa M.

    2008-01-01

    Accurate and reliable evapotranspiration (ET) datasets are crucial in regional water and energy balance studies. Due to the complex instrumentation requirements, actual ET values are generally estimated from reference ET values by adjustment factors using coefficients for water stress and vegetation conditions, commonly referred to as crop coefficients. Until recently, the modeling of reference ET has been solely based on important weather variables collected from weather stations that are generally located in selected agro-climatic locations. Since 2001, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) has been producing six-hourly climate parameter datasets that are used to calculate daily reference ET for the whole globe at 1-degree spatial resolution. The U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science has been producing daily reference ET (ETo) since 2001, and it has been used on a variety of operational hydrological models for drought and streamflow monitoring all over the world. With the increasing availability of local station-based reference ET estimates, we evaluated the GDAS-based reference ET estimates using data from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS). Daily CIMIS reference ET estimates from 85 stations were compared with GDAS-based reference ET at different spatial and temporal scales using five-year daily data from 2002 through 2006. Despite the large difference in spatial scale (point vs. ???100 km grid cell) between the two datasets, the correlations between station-based ET and GDAS-ET were very high, exceeding 0.97 on a daily basis to more than 0.99 on time scales of more than 10 days. Both the temporal and spatial correspondences in trend/pattern and magnitudes between the two datasets were satisfactory, suggesting the reliability of using GDAS parameter-based reference ET for regional water and energy balance studies in many parts of the world

  4. TAO/TRITON, RAMA, and PIRATA Buoys, Daily, Relative Humidity

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset has daily Relative Humidity data from the TAO/TRITON (Pacific Ocean, http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/), RAMA (Indian Ocean,...

  5. Use of a visual analogue scale in a daily patient diary: modelling cross-sectional time-series data on health-related quality of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkin, David; Rice, Nigel; Jacoby, Ann; Doughty, Julie

    2004-07-01

    An economic evaluation of beta interferon therapy collected quality of life data from 62 people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, currently in remission. Each completed a postal questionnaire consisting of the Euroqol EQ-5D questionnaire, the MSQOL-54 (a disease-specific measure incorporating the SF36) and other data including health services use. This was completed at the beginning and end of 6-weeks during which a daily diary was kept. The diary asked about daily activities, symptoms experienced, the impact of symptoms, general health status and current health status using the Euroqol Visual Analogue Scale (EQ VAS). The diary had an excellent completion rate, producing data with good face validity. The resulting cross-sectional time-series data provide information about the stability and variability of the EQ VAS in repeated measurement and its sensitivity to health state changes. EQ VAS scores were stable at the population level over time; greater variation in scores was observed between rather than within individuals. Panel data techniques are used to relate EQ VAS scores to recorded symptoms and baseline general health status, paying particular attention to the role of individual heterogeneity and the dynamic nature of responses. The EQ VAS was sensitive to the presence of symptoms, their severity and their type. It is concluded that appropriately analysed panel data can provide insights useful in the measurement of health-related quality of life.

  6. SU-F-R-41: Regularized PCA Can Model Treatment-Related Changes in Head and Neck Patients Using Daily CBCTs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chetvertkov, M [Wayne State University, Detroit, MI (United States); Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, MI (United States); Siddiqui, F; Chetty, I; Kumarasiri, A; Liu, C; Gordon, J [Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, MI (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To use daily cone beam CTs (CBCTs) to develop regularized principal component analysis (PCA) models of anatomical changes in head and neck (H&N) patients, to guide replanning decisions in adaptive radiation therapy (ART). Methods: Known deformations were applied to planning CT (pCT) images of 10 H&N patients to model several different systematic anatomical changes. A Pinnacle plugin was used to interpolate systematic changes over 35 fractions, generating a set of 35 synthetic CTs for each patient. Deformation vector fields (DVFs) were acquired between the pCT and synthetic CTs and random fraction-to-fraction changes were superimposed on the DVFs. Standard non-regularized and regularized patient-specific PCA models were built using the DVFs. The ability of PCA to extract the known deformations was quantified. PCA models were also generated from clinical CBCTs, for which the deformations and DVFs were not known. It was hypothesized that resulting eigenvectors/eigenfunctions with largest eigenvalues represent the major anatomical deformations during the course of treatment. Results: As demonstrated with quantitative results in the supporting document regularized PCA is more successful than standard PCA at capturing systematic changes early in the treatment. Regularized PCA is able to detect smaller systematic changes against the background of random fraction-to-fraction changes. To be successful at guiding ART, regularized PCA should be coupled with models of when anatomical changes occur: early, late or throughout the treatment course. Conclusion: The leading eigenvector/eigenfunction from the both PCA approaches can tentatively be identified as a major systematic change during radiotherapy course when systematic changes are large enough with respect to random fraction-to-fraction changes. In all cases the regularized PCA approach appears to be more reliable at capturing systematic changes, enabling dosimetric consequences to be projected once trends are

  7. Stochastic modelling of daily rainfall sequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buishand, T.A.

    1977-01-01

    Rainfall series of different climatic regions were analysed with the aim of generating daily rainfall sequences. A survey of the data is given in I, 1. When analysing daily rainfall sequences one must be aware of the following points:
    a. Seasonality. Because of seasonal variation

  8. Relationship of Dyadic Closeness with Work-Related Stress: A Daily Diary Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavee, Yoav; Ben-Ari, Adital

    2007-01-01

    We examined the association between work-related stress of both spouses and daily fluctuations in their affective states and dyadic closeness. Daily diary data from 169 Israeli dual-earner couples were analyzed using multilevel modeling. The findings indicate that work stress has no direct effect on dyadic closeness but rather is mediated by the…

  9. Relationship of Dyadic Closeness with Work-Related Stress: A Daily Diary Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavee, Yoav; Ben-Ari, Adital

    2007-01-01

    We examined the association between work-related stress of both spouses and daily fluctuations in their affective states and dyadic closeness. Daily diary data from 169 Israeli dual-earner couples were analyzed using multilevel modeling. The findings indicate that work stress has no direct effect on dyadic closeness but rather is mediated by the…

  10. Daily rhythm variations of the clock gene PER1 and cancer-related genes during various stages of carcinogenesis in a golden hamster model of buccal mucosa carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye H

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Hua Ye, Kai Yang, Xue-Mei Tan, Xiao-Juan Fu, Han-Xue LiDepartment of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, People’s Republic of ChinaBackground: Recent studies have demonstrated that the clock gene PER1 regulates various tumor-related genes. Abnormal expressions and circadian rhythm alterations of PER1 are closely related to carcinogenesis. However, the dynamic circadian variations of PER1 and tumor-related genes at different stages of carcinogenesis remain unknown. This study was conducted to investigate the daily rhythm variation of PER1 and expression of tumor-related genes VEGF, KI67, C-MYC, and P53 in different stages of carcinogenesis.Materials and methods: Dimethylbenzanthracene was used to establish a golden hamster model of buccal mucosa carcinogenesis. Hamsters with normal buccal mucosa, precancerous lesion, and cancerous lesion were sacrificed at six different time points during a 24-hour period of a day. Pathological examination was conducted using routine hematoxylin and eosin staining. PER1, VEGF, KI67, C-MYC, and P53 mRNAs were detected by real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction, and a cosinor analysis was applied to analyze the daily rhythm.Results: PER1, VEGF, C-MYC, and P53 mRNA exhibited daily rhythmic expression in three carcinogenesis stages, and KI67 mRNA exhibited daily rhythmic expression in the normal and precancerous stages. The daily rhythmic expression of KI67 was not observed in cancerous stages. The mesor and amplitude of PER1 and P53 mRNA expression decreased upon the development of cancer (P<0.05, whereas the mesor and amplitude of VEGF, KI67, and C-MYC mRNA increased upon the development of cancer (P<0.05. Compared with the normal tissues, the acrophases of PER1, VEGF, and C-MYC mRNA occurred earlier, whereas the acrophases of P53 and KI67 mRNA lagged remarkably in the precancerous lesions. In the cancer stage, the acrophases

  11. Modelling and forecasting WIG20 daily returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Silvennoinen, Annestiina; Terasvirta, Timo

    of the model is that the deterministic component is specified before estimating the multiplicative conditional variance component. The resulting model is subjected to misspecification tests and its forecasting performance is compared with that of commonly applied models of conditional heteroskedasticity....

  12. Temporal Relations in Daily-Reported Maternal Mood and Disruptive Child Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elgar, Frank J.; Waschbusch, Daniel A.; McGrath, Patrick J.; Stewart, Sherry H.; Curtis, Lori J.

    2004-01-01

    Examined temporal relations between maternal mood and disruptive child behaviour using daily assessments of 30 mother-child dyads carried out over 8 consecutive weeks (623 pooled observations). Pooled time-series analyses showed synchronous fluctuation in child behaviour and maternal distress. Time-lagged models showed temporal relations between…

  13. Time series ARIMA models for daily price of palm oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariff, Noratiqah Mohd; Zamhawari, Nor Hashimah; Bakar, Mohd Aftar Abu

    2015-02-01

    Palm oil is deemed as one of the most important commodity that forms the economic backbone of Malaysia. Modeling and forecasting the daily price of palm oil is of great interest for Malaysia's economic growth. In this study, time series ARIMA models are used to fit the daily price of palm oil. The Akaike Infromation Criterion (AIC), Akaike Infromation Criterion with a correction for finite sample sizes (AICc) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are used to compare between different ARIMA models being considered. It is found that ARIMA(1,2,1) model is suitable for daily price of crude palm oil in Malaysia for the year 2010 to 2012.

  14. Towards understanding and modelling office daily life

    CERN Document Server

    Bezzi, Michele

    2007-01-01

    Measuring and modeling human behavior is a very complex task. In this paper we present our initial thoughts on modeling and automatic recognition of some human activities in an office. We argue that to successfully model human activities, we need to consider both individual behavior and group dynamics. To demonstrate these theoretical approaches, we introduce an experimental system for analyzing everyday activity in our office.

  15. Relating precipitation to fronts at a sub-daily basis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hénin, Riccardo; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Gouveia, Célia

    2017-04-01

    High impact events over Western Iberia include precipitation extremes that are cause for concern as they lead to flooding, landslides, extensive property damage and human casualties. These events are usually associated with low pressure systems over the North Atlantic moving eastward towards the European western coasts (Liberato and Trigo, 2014). A method to detect fronts and to associate amounts of precipitation to each front is tested, distinguishing between warm and cold fronts. The 6-hourly ERA-interim 1979-2012 reanalysis with 1°x1° horizontal resolution is used for the purpose. An objective front identification method (the Thermal Method described in Shemm et al., 2014) is applied to locate fronts all over the Northern Hemisphere considering the equivalent potential temperature as thermal parameter to use in the model. On the other hand, we settled a squared search box of tuneable dimension (from 2 to 10 degrees long) to look for a front in the neighbourhood of a grid point affected by precipitation. A sensitivity analysis is performed and the optimal dimension of the box is assessed in order to avoid over(under) estimation of precipitation. This is performed in the light of the variability and typical dynamics of warm/cold frontal systems in the Western Europe region. Afterwards, using the extreme event ranking over Iberia proposed by Ramos et al. (2014) the first ranked extreme events are selected in order to validate the method with specific case studies. Finally, climatological and trend maps of frontal activity are produced both on annual and seasonal scales. Trend maps show a decrease of frontal precipitation over north-western Europe and a slight increase over south-western Europe, mainly due to warm fronts. REFERENCES Liberato M.L.R. and R.M. Trigo (2014) Extreme precipitation events and related impacts in Western Iberia. Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions. IAHS Red Book No 363, 171-176. ISSN: 0144-7815. Ramos A.M., R

  16. Daily total global solar radiation modeling from several meteorological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilgili, Mehmet; Ozgoren, Muammer

    2011-05-01

    This paper investigates the modeling of the daily total global solar radiation in Adana city of Turkey using multi-linear regression (MLR), multi-nonlinear regression (MNLR) and feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) methods. Several daily meteorological data, i.e., measured sunshine duration, air temperature and wind speed and date of the year, i.e., monthly and daily, were used as independent variables to the MLR, MNLR and ANN models. In order to determine the relationship between the total global solar radiation and other meteorological data, and also to obtain the best independent variables, the MLR and MNLR analyses were performed with the "Stepwise" method in the Statistical Packages for the Social Sciences (SPSS) program. Thus, various models consisting of the combination of the independent variables were constructed and the best input structure was investigated. The performances of all models in the training and testing data sets were compared with the measured daily global solar radiation values. The obtained results indicated that the ANN method was better than the other methods in modeling daily total global solar radiation. For the ANN model, mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), correlation coefficient ( R) and coefficient of determination ( R 2) for the training/testing data set were found to be 0.89/1.00 MJ/m2 day, 7.88/9.23%, 0.9824/0.9751, and 0.9651/0.9508, respectively.

  17. Stochastic daily precipitation model with a heavy-tailed component

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neykov, N. M.; Neytchev, P. N.; Zucchini, W.

    2014-09-01

    Stochastic daily precipitation models are commonly used to generate scenarios of climate variability or change on a daily timescale. The standard models consist of two components describing the occurrence and intensity series, respectively. Binary logistic regression is used to fit the occurrence data, and the intensity series is modeled using a continuous-valued right-skewed distribution, such as gamma, Weibull or lognormal. The precipitation series is then modeled using the joint density, and standard software for generalized linear models can be used to perform the computations. A drawback of these precipitation models is that they do not produce a sufficiently heavy upper tail for the distribution of daily precipitation amounts; they tend to underestimate the frequency of large storms. In this study, we adapted the approach of Furrer and Katz (2008) based on hybrid distributions in order to correct for this shortcoming. In particular, we applied hybrid gamma-generalized Pareto (GP) and hybrid Weibull-GP distributions to develop a stochastic precipitation model for daily rainfall at Ihtiman in western Bulgaria. We report the results of simulations designed to compare the models based on the hybrid distributions and those based on the standard distributions. Some potential difficulties are outlined.

  18. Statistical procedures for evaluating daily and monthly hydrologic model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffey, M.E.; Workman, S.R.; Taraba, J.L.; Fogle, A.W.

    2004-01-01

    The overall study objective was to evaluate the applicability of different qualitative and quantitative methods for comparing daily and monthly SWAT computer model hydrologic streamflow predictions to observed data, and to recommend statistical methods for use in future model evaluations. Statistical methods were tested using daily streamflows and monthly equivalent runoff depths. The statistical techniques included linear regression, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, nonparametric tests, t-test, objective functions, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation. None of the methods specifically applied to the non-normal distribution and dependence between data points for the daily predicted and observed data. Of the tested methods, median objective functions, sign test, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation were most applicable for the daily data. The robust coefficient of determination (CD*) and robust modeling efficiency (EF*) objective functions were the preferred methods for daily model results due to the ease of comparing these values with a fixed ideal reference value of one. Predicted and observed monthly totals were more normally distributed, and there was less dependence between individual monthly totals than was observed for the corresponding predicted and observed daily values. More statistical methods were available for comparing SWAT model-predicted and observed monthly totals. The 1995 monthly SWAT model predictions and observed data had a regression Rr2 of 0.70, a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.41, and the t-test failed to reject the equal data means hypothesis. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and the R r2 coefficient were the preferred methods for monthly results due to the ability to compare these coefficients to a set ideal value of one.

  19. Pain-related Impairment of Daily Activities After Thoracic Surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ringsted, Thomas K; Wildgaard, Kim; Kreiner, Svend

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE:: Persistent postoperative pain is an acknowledged entity that reduces daily activities. Evaluation of the post-thoracotomy pain syndrome (PTPS) is often measured using traditional pain scales without in-depth questions on pain impairment. Thus, the purpose was to create a procedure...

  20. A fuzzy-autoregressive model of daily river flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greco, Roberto

    2012-06-01

    A model for the identification of daily river flows has been developed, consisting of the combination of an autoregressive model with a fuzzy inference system. The AR model is devoted to the identification of base flow, supposed to be described by linear laws. The fuzzy model identifies the surface runoff, by applying a small set of linguistic statements, deriving from the knowledge of the physical features of the nonlinear rainfall-runoff transformation, to the inflow entering the river basin. The model has been applied to the identification of the daily flow series of river Volturno at Cancello-Arnone (Southern Italy), with a drainage basin of around 5560 km2, observed between 1970 and 1974. The inflow was estimated on the basis of daily precipitations registered during the same years at six rain gauges located throughout the basin. The first two years were used for model training, the remaining three for the validation. The obtained results show that the proposed model provides good predictions of either low river flows or high floods, although the analysis of residuals, which do not turn out to be a white noise, indicates that the cause and effect relationship between rainfall and runoff is not completely identified by the model.

  1. An empirical model of the quiet daily geomagnetic field variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamazaki, Y.; Yumoto, K.; Cardinal, M.G.; Fraser, B.J.; Hattori, P.; Kakinami, Y.; Liu, J.Y.; Lynn, K.J.W.; Marshall, R.; McNamara, D.; Nagatsuma, T.; Nikiforov, V.M.; Otadoy, R.E.; Ruhimat, M.; Shevtsov, B.M.; Shiokawa, K.; Abe, S.; Uozumi, T.; Yoshikawa, A.

    2011-01-01

    An empirical model of the quiet daily geomagnetic field variation has been constructed based on geomagnetic data obtained from 21 stations along the 210 Magnetic Meridian of the Circum-pan Pacific Magnetometer Network (CPMN) from 1996 to 2007. Using the least squares fitting method for geomagnetically quiet days (Kp ??? 2+), the quiet daily geomagnetic field variation at each station was described as a function of solar activity SA, day of year DOY, lunar age LA, and local time LT. After interpolation in latitude, the model can describe solar-activity dependence and seasonal dependence of solar quiet daily variations (S) and lunar quiet daily variations (L). We performed a spherical harmonic analysis (SHA) on these S and L variations to examine average characteristics of the equivalent external current systems. We found three particularly noteworthy results. First, the total current intensity of the S current system is largely controlled by solar activity while its focus position is not significantly affected by solar activity. Second, we found that seasonal variations of the S current intensity exhibit north-south asymmetry; the current intensity of the northern vortex shows a prominent annual variation while the southern vortex shows a clear semi-annual variation as well as annual variation. Thirdly, we found that the total intensity of the L current system changes depending on solar activity and season; seasonal variations of the L current intensity show an enhancement during the December solstice, independent of the level of solar activity. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  2. The Relative Salience of Daily and Enduring Influences on Off-Job Reactions to Work Stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calderwood, Charles; Ackerman, Phillip L

    2016-12-01

    Work stress is an important determinant of employee health and wellness. The occupational health community is recognizing that one contributor to these relationships may be the presence of negative off-job reactivity to work, which we argue involves continued thoughts directed towards work (cognitive reactivity), continued negative mood stemming from work (affective reactivity), and the alteration of post-work behaviours in response to work factors (behavioural reactivity). We explored the relative contributions of daily work stressors, affective traits, and subjective job stress perceptions to negative off-job reactivity. These relationships were evaluated in a study of hospital nurses (n = 75), who completed trait measures and then provided self-assessments of daily work stress and off-job reactions for four work days. The results of several multilevel analyses indicated that a main-effects model best described the data when predicting cognitive, affective, and behavioural reactivity from daily work stressors, affective traits, and subjective job stress perceptions. A series of multilevel dominance analyses revealed that subjective job stress perceptions dominated the prediction of behavioural reactivity, while trait negative affect dominated the prediction of affective reactivity. Theoretical implications and the relative salience of daily and enduring contributors to negative off-job reactivity are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Relative Effects of Daily Feedback and Weekly Feedback on Customer Service Behavior at a Gas Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    So, Yongjoon; Lee, Kyehoon; Oah, Shezeen

    2013-01-01

    The relative effects of daily and weekly feedback on customer service behavior at a gas station were assessed using an ABC within-subjects design. Four critical service behaviors were identified and measured daily. After baseline (A), weekly feedback (B) was introduced, and daily feedback (C) was introduced in the next phase. The results indicated…

  4. Executive function in daily life: Age-related influences of executive processes on instrumental activities of daily living.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Leslie; Giovanello, Kelly

    2010-06-01

    The present study of older adults used structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the relationships between 3 executive processes underlying executive function (EF) (inhibition, task switching, updating in working memory), and 2 types of instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) (self-report, performance based). Experimental tasks of executive attention and self-report or performance-based IADL tests were administered to create latent constructs of EF and IADLs. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used to examine the construct validity of EF and IADLs. This analysis indicated a 3-factor model of inhibition, updating, and task switching and a 2-factor model of self-report and performance-based IADLs. As predicted, when the latent variable relationships were analyzed, executive processes had a significant relationship with performance-based, but not self-report, IADLs. In addition, task switching had a strong and significant relationship with performance-based IADLs. The results of this study uniquely show a direct relationship between executive processes and performance-based IADLs, thus demonstrating the ecological utility of experimental measures of EF to predict daily function. Furthermore, these results point to areas of cognitive training that may strategically impact older adults' performance on daily life activities.

  5. [Comparison of three daily global solar radiation models].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jin-Ming; Fan, Wen-Yi; Zhao, Ying-Hui

    2014-08-01

    Three daily global solar radiation estimation models ( Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al.) were analyzed and compared using data of 13 weather stations from 1982 to 2012 from three northeastern provinces and eastern Inner Mongolia. After cross-validation analysis, the result showed that mean absolute error (MAE) for each model was 1.71, 2.83 and 1.68 MJ x m(-2) x d(-1) respectively, showing that Å-P model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. which used percentage of sunshine had an advantage over Thornton-Running model which didn't use percentage of sunshine. Model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. played a good effect on the situation of non-sunshine, and its MAE and bias percentage were 18.5% and 33.8% smaller than those of Å-P model, respectively. High precision results could be obtained by using the simple linear model of Å-P. Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. overvalued daily global solar radiation by 12.2%, 19.2% and 9.9% respectively. MAE for each station varied little with the spatial change of location, and annual MAE decreased with the advance of years. The reason for this might be that the change of observation accuracy caused by the replacement of radiation instrument in 1993. MAEs for rainy days, non-sunshine days and warm seasons of the three models were greater than those for days without rain, sunshine days and cold seasons respectively, showing that different methods should be used for different weather conditions on estimating solar radiation with meteorological elements.

  6. Interpolation of daily rainfall using spatiotemporal models and clustering

    KAUST Repository

    Militino, A. F.

    2014-06-11

    Accumulated daily rainfall in non-observed locations on a particular day is frequently required as input to decision-making tools in precision agriculture or for hydrological or meteorological studies. Various solutions and estimation procedures have been proposed in the literature depending on the auxiliary information and the availability of data, but most such solutions are oriented to interpolating spatial data without incorporating temporal dependence. When data are available in space and time, spatiotemporal models usually provide better solutions. Here, we analyse the performance of three spatiotemporal models fitted to the whole sampled set and to clusters within the sampled set. The data consists of daily observations collected from 87 manual rainfall gauges from 1990 to 2010 in Navarre, Spain. The accuracy and precision of the interpolated data are compared with real data from 33 automated rainfall gauges in the same region, but placed in different locations than the manual rainfall gauges. Root mean squared error by months and by year are also provided. To illustrate these models, we also map interpolated daily precipitations and standard errors on a 1km2 grid in the whole region. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.

  7. Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falcone, Giuseppe; Murru, Maura; Console, Rodolfo; Marzocchi, Warner; Zhuang, Jiancang

    2016-04-01

    We present a retrospective ETAS (Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence) model based on the daily updating of free parameters during the background, the learning and the test phase of a seismic sequence. The idea was born after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Center in Japan provided an appropriate testing benchmark for the five 1-day submitted models. Of all the models, only one was able to successfully predict the number of events that really happened. This result was verified using both the real time and the revised catalogs. The main cause of the failure was in the underestimation of the forecasted events, due to model parameters maintained fixed during the test. Moreover, the absence in the learning catalog of an event similar to the magnitude of the mainshock (M9.0), which drastically changed the seismicity in the area, made the learning parameters not suitable to describe the real seismicity. As an example of this methodological development we show the evolution of the model parameters during the last two strong seismic sequences in Italy: the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Reggio Emilia episodes. The achievement of the model with daily updated parameters is compared with that of same model where the parameters remain fixed during the test time.

  8. a Multivariate Downscaling Model for Nonparametric Simulation of Daily Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, J. M.; Ramirez, J. A.; Raff, D. A.

    2011-12-01

    A multivariate, stochastic nonparametric framework for stepwise disaggregation of seasonal runoff volumes to daily streamflow is presented. The downscaling process is conditional on volumes of spring runoff and large-scale ocean-atmosphere teleconnections and includes a two-level cascade scheme: seasonal-to-monthly disaggregation first followed by monthly-to-daily disaggregation. The non-parametric and assumption-free character of the framework allows consideration of the random nature and nonlinearities of daily flows, which parametric models are unable to account for adequately. This paper examines statistical links between decadal/interannual climatic variations in the Pacific Ocean and hydrologic variability in US northwest region, and includes a periodicity analysis of climate patterns to detect coherences of their cyclic behavior in the frequency domain. We explore the use of such relationships and selected signals (e.g., north Pacific gyre oscillation, southern oscillation, and Pacific decadal oscillation indices, NPGO, SOI and PDO, respectively) in the proposed data-driven framework by means of a combinatorial approach with the aim of simulating improved streamflow sequences when compared with disaggregated series generated from flows alone. A nearest neighbor time series bootstrapping approach is integrated with principal component analysis to resample from the empirical multivariate distribution. A volume-dependent scaling transformation is implemented to guarantee the summability condition. In addition, we present a new and simple algorithm, based on nonparametric resampling, that overcomes the common limitation of lack of preservation of historical correlation between daily flows across months. The downscaling framework presented here is parsimonious in parameters and model assumptions, does not generate negative values, and produces synthetic series that are statistically indistinguishable from the observations. We present evidence showing that both

  9. Dynamic Regression Intervention Modeling for the Malaysian Daily Load

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fadhilah Abdrazak

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Malaysia is a unique country due to having both fixed and moving holidays.  These moving holidays may overlap with other fixed holidays and therefore, increase the complexity of the load forecasting activities. The errors due to holidays’ effects in the load forecasting are known to be higher than other factors.  If these effects can be estimated and removed, the behavior of the series could be better viewed.  Thus, the aim of this paper is to improve the forecasting errors by using a dynamic regression model with intervention analysis.   Based on the linear transfer function method, a daily load model consists of either peak or average is developed.  The developed model outperformed the seasonal ARIMA model in estimating the fixed and moving holidays’ effects and achieved a smaller Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE in load forecast.

  10. Spatial interpolation schemes of daily precipitation for hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Y.; Clark, M.; Rajagopalan, B.; Leavesley, G.

    2012-01-01

    Distributed hydrologic models typically require spatial estimates of precipitation interpolated from sparsely located observational points to the specific grid points. We compare and contrast the performance of regression-based statistical methods for the spatial estimation of precipitation in two hydrologically different basins and confirmed that widely used regression-based estimation schemes fail to describe the realistic spatial variability of daily precipitation field. The methods assessed are: (1) inverse distance weighted average; (2) multiple linear regression (MLR); (3) climatological MLR; and (4) locally weighted polynomial regression (LWP). In order to improve the performance of the interpolations, the authors propose a two-step regression technique for effective daily precipitation estimation. In this simple two-step estimation process, precipitation occurrence is first generated via a logistic regression model before estimate the amount of precipitation separately on wet days. This process generated the precipitation occurrence, amount, and spatial correlation effectively. A distributed hydrologic model (PRMS) was used for the impact analysis in daily time step simulation. Multiple simulations suggested noticeable differences between the input alternatives generated by three different interpolation schemes. Differences are shown in overall simulation error against the observations, degree of explained variability, and seasonal volumes. Simulated streamflows also showed different characteristics in mean, maximum, minimum, and peak flows. Given the same parameter optimization technique, LWP input showed least streamflow error in Alapaha basin and CMLR input showed least error (still very close to LWP) in Animas basin. All of the two-step interpolation inputs resulted in lower streamflow error compared to the directly interpolated inputs. ?? 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  11. Downscaling approach to develop future sub-daily IDF relations for Canberra Airport Region, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herath, H. M. S. M.; Sarukkalige, P. R.; Nguyen, V. T. V.

    2015-06-01

    Downscaling of climate projections is the most adopted method to assess the impacts of climate change at regional and local scale. In the last decade, downscaling techniques which provide reasonable improvement to resolution of General Circulation Models' (GCMs) output are developed in notable manner. Most of these techniques are limited to spatial downscaling of GCMs' output and still there is a high demand to develop temporal downscaling approaches. As the main objective of this study, combined approach of spatial and temporal downscaling is developed to improve the resolution of rainfall predicted by GCMs. Canberra airport region is subjected to this study and the applicability of proposed downscaling approach is evaluated for Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin regions. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is used to spatial downscaling and numerical model based on scaling invariant concept is used to temporal downscaling of rainfalls. National Centre of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data is used in SDSM model calibration and validation. Regression based bias correction function is used to improve the accuracy of downscaled annual maximum rainfalls using HadCM3-A2. By analysing the non-central moments of observed rainfalls, single time regime (from 30 min to 24 h) is identified which exist scaling behaviour and it is used to estimate the sub daily extreme rainfall depths from daily downscaled rainfalls. Finally, as the major output of this study, Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relations are developed for the future periods of 2020s, 2050s and 2080s in the context of climate change.

  12. A dual pathway model of daily stressor effects on rheumatoid arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Affleck, G; Urrows, S; Tennen, H; Higgins, P; Pav, D; Aloisi, R

    1997-01-01

    This study evaluated the initial promise of a dual-pathway conceptual model linking daily event stressors to rheumatoid arthritis (RA) disease activity through changes in immune system activation and mood. Fifty individuals, who were studied on five occasions two weeks apart, reported daily event stressors on the Daily Life Experience Checklist, daily mood on an abbreviated version of the Profile of Mood States-B, and daily joint pain on the Rapid Assessment of Disease Activity in Rheumatology. Serial clinical examinations comprised ratings of joint tenderness and swelling, and blood drawn during exams was analyzed for sedimentation rate (an indicator of systemic inflammation) and soluble interleukin-2 receptors (a marker of immune system activation known to correlate with RA disease activity). Across-person analyses failed to establish links from daily event stressors to either disease activity or composites of joint pain and joint inflammation when associations were adjusted for the effect of neuroticism on self-report measures. Pooled within-person analyses, however, were generally consistent with the relations predicted by the dual-pathway model. Increases in daily event stressors during the week preceding each clinical exam were associated with increased joint pain (regardless of changes in mood). At the same time, increased daily stressors were indirectly associated with decreased joint inflammation through reduction in levels of soluble interleukin-2 receptors. The dual-pathway model, which may be limited to short-term psychological and psychoimmunologic processes, underscores the importance of distinguishing potentially opposing effects of stress on pain versus inflammation in individuals with rheumatoid arthritis.

  13. 10-daily soil erosion modelling over sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Symeonakis, Elias; Drake, Nick

    2010-02-01

    Soil erosion is considered to be one of the greatest environmental problems of sub-Saharan Africa. This paper investigates the advantages and disadvantages of modelling soil erosion at the continental scale and suggests an operational methodology for mapping and quantifying 10-daily water runoff and soil erosion over this scale using remote sensing data in a geographical information system framework. An attempt is made to compare the estimates of this study with general data on the severity of soil erosion over Africa and with measured rates of soil loss at different locations over the continent. The results show that the measured and estimated rates of erosion are in some areas very similar and in general within the same order of magnitude. The importance and the potential of using the soil erosion estimates with simple models and easily accessible free data for various continental-scale environmental applications are also demonstrated.

  14. Generalized linear model for estimation of missing daily rainfall data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Nurul Aishah; Deni, Sayang Mohd; Ramli, Norazan Mohamed

    2017-04-01

    The analysis of rainfall data with no missingness is vital in various applications including climatological, hydrological and meteorological study. The issue of missing data is a serious concern since it could introduce bias and lead to misleading conclusions. In this study, five imputation methods including simple arithmetic average, normal ratio method, inverse distance weighting method, correlation coefficient weighting method and geographical coordinate were used to estimate the missing data. However, these imputation methods ignored the seasonality in rainfall dataset which could give more reliable estimation. Thus this study is aimed to estimate the missingness in daily rainfall data by using generalized linear model with gamma and Fourier series as the link function and smoothing technique, respectively. Forty years daily rainfall data for the period from 1975 until 2014 which consists of seven stations at Kelantan region were selected for the analysis. The findings indicated that the imputation methods could provide more accurate estimation values based on the least mean absolute error, root mean squared error and coefficient of variation root mean squared error when seasonality in the dataset are considered.

  15. Health-related aspects of objectively measured daily physical activity in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, Magnus; Andersen, Lars Bo

    2008-01-01

    It is well established that physical inactivity in adults is associated with increased mortality and morbidity. Whether daily physical activity level is related to risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in children has been debated. Furthermore, objective data on the habitual daily physical...... activity in children have at large been scarce in the literature. The main reason for this is the fact that daily physical activity is very difficult to measure in children. In recent years, a new device, the accelerometer, has emerged as a frequently used instrument for the measurement of daily physical...... activity. This review summarizes recently published studies that have used accelerometers to measure daily physical activity in children and related activity data to known risk factors for CVD....

  16. User modeling and adaptation for daily routines providing assistance to people with special needs

    CERN Document Server

    Martín, Estefanía; Carro, Rosa M

    2013-01-01

    User Modeling and Adaptation for Daily Routines is motivated by the need to bring attention to how people with special needs can benefit from adaptive methods and techniques in their everyday lives. Assistive technologies, adaptive systems and context-aware applications are three well-established research fields. There is, in fact, a vast amount of literature that covers HCI-related issues in each area separately. However, the contributions in the intersection of these areas have been less visible, despite the fact that such synergies may have a great impact on improving daily living.Presentin

  17. Central European high-resolution gridded daily data sets (HYRAS: Mean temperature and relative humidity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Frick

    Full Text Available High-resolution (5×5km2$5\\times5\\,\\text{km}^2$ gridded daily data sets of surface air temperature (DWD/BfG-HYRAS-TAS and relative humidity (DWD/BfG-HYRAS-HURS are presented in this study. The data sets cover Germany and the bordering river catchments and last from 1951 to 2006. Their data bases consist of daily station observations from Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Switzerland. The interpolation of the measurement data to the regular grid is performed using a method based upon Optimal Interpolation. A first climatological analysis for Germany and Central European river catchments of first and second order is performed. For the Rhine river catchment a summer mean temperature of 16.1 °C and relative humidity of 74 % are found. In contrast, the mean temperature of heat summer 2003 amounts to 19.9 °C with a related relative humidity of 65 % in this river catchment. The extreme character of this summer is also remarkable in the presented climate indices, e.g., the increased amount of summer hot days. The first validations of both data sets reveal a bias within the range of the provided data precisions. In addition, an elevation dependency of error scores is identified for temperature. Error scores increase with an increasing station height because height differences between station and grid cell increases with height. A comparison of HYRAS-TAS to another gridded temperature data set reveals a good agreement with again fewer differences at lower altitudes. The presented DWD/BfG-HYRAS data sets have a high spatial and temporal resolution which is unique for Germany and the bordering river catchments so far. They have a high potential for detailed studies of smaller scale structures in Central Europe and are already used as input for hydrological impact modelling, as climatological reference and for bias correction of regional climate models within the German research project KLIWAS

  18. Upscaling instantaneous to daily evapotranspiration using modelled daily shortwave radiation for remote sensing applications: an artificial neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wandera, Loise; Mallick, Kaniska; Kiely, Gerard; Roupsard, Olivier; Peichl, Mathias; Magliulo, Vincenzo

    2017-04-01

    Upscaling instantaneous evapotranspiration retrieved at any specific time-of-day (ETi) to daily evapotranspiration (ETd) is a key challenge in mapping regional ET using polar orbiting sensors. Various studies have unanimously cited the shortwave incoming radiation (RS) to be the most robust reference variable explaining the ratio between ETd and ETi . This study aims to contribute in ETi upscaling for global studies using the ratio between daily and instantaneous incoming shortwave radiation (RSd / RSi) as a factor for converting ETi to ETd. This paper proposes an artificial neural network (ANN) machine-learning algorithm first to predict RSd from RSi followed by using the RSd / RSi ratio to convert ETi to ETd across different terrestrial ecosystems. Using RSi and RSd observations from multiple sub-networks of the FLUXNET database spread across different climates and biomes (to represent inputs that would typically be obtainable from remote sensors during the overpass time) in conjunction with some astronomical variables (e.g. solar zenith angle, day length, exoatmospheric shortwave radiation), we developed the ANN model for reproducing RSd and further used it to upscale ETi to ETd. The efficiency of the ANN is evaluated for different morning and afternoon times of day, under varying sky conditions, and also at different geographic locations. RS-based upscaled ETd produced a significant linear relation (R 2 = 0.65 to 0.69), low bias (-0.31 to -0.56 MJ m-2 d -1 ; approx. 4 %), and good agreement (RMSE 1.55 to 1.86 MJ m-2 d -1 ; approx. 10 %) with the observed ETd, although a systematic overestimation of ETd was also noted under persistent cloudy sky conditions. Inclusion of soil moisture and rainfall information in ANN training reduced the systematic overestimation tendency in predominantly overcast days. An intercomparison with existing upscaling method at daily, 8-day, monthly, and yearly temporal resolution revealed a robust performance of the ANNdriven RS

  19. Upscaling instantaneous to daily evapotranspiration using modelled daily shortwave radiation for remote sensing applications: an artificial neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wandera, Loise; Mallick, Kaniska; Kiely, Gerard; Roupsard, Olivier; Peichl, Matthias; Magliulo, Vincenzo

    2017-01-01

    Upscaling instantaneous evapotranspiration retrieved at any specific time-of-day (ETi) to daily evapotranspiration (ETd) is a key challenge in mapping regional ET using polar orbiting sensors. Various studies have unanimously cited the shortwave incoming radiation (RS) to be the most robust reference variable explaining the ratio between ETd and ETi. This study aims to contribute in ETi upscaling for global studies using the ratio between daily and instantaneous incoming shortwave radiation (RSd / RSi) as a factor for converting ETi to ETd.This paper proposes an artificial neural network (ANN) machine-learning algorithm first to predict RSd from RSi followed by using the RSd / RSi ratio to convert ETi to ETd across different terrestrial ecosystems. Using RSi and RSd observations from multiple sub-networks of the FLUXNET database spread across different climates and biomes (to represent inputs that would typically be obtainable from remote sensors during the overpass time) in conjunction with some astronomical variables (e.g. solar zenith angle, day length, exoatmospheric shortwave radiation), we developed the ANN model for reproducing RSd and further used it to upscale ETi to ETd. The efficiency of the ANN is evaluated for different morning and afternoon times of day, under varying sky conditions, and also at different geographic locations. RS-based upscaled ETd produced a significant linear relation (R2 = 0.65 to 0.69), low bias (-0.31 to -0.56 MJ m-2 d-1; approx. 4 %), and good agreement (RMSE 1.55 to 1.86 MJ m-2 d-1; approx. 10 %) with the observed ETd, although a systematic overestimation of ETd was also noted under persistent cloudy sky conditions. Inclusion of soil moisture and rainfall information in ANN training reduced the systematic overestimation tendency in predominantly overcast days. An intercomparison with existing upscaling method at daily, 8-day, monthly, and yearly temporal resolution revealed a robust performance of the ANN-driven RS-based ETi

  20. Daily physical activity and its relation to aerobic fitness in children aged 8-11 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, Magnus; Thorsson, Ola; Karlsson, Magnus K.

    2006-01-01

    Abstract  A positive relationship between daily physical activity and aerobic fitness exists in adults. Studies in children have given conflicting results, possibly because of differences in methods used to assess daily physical activity and fitness. No study regarding daily physical activity...... and fitness in children has been published, where fitness has been assessed by direct measurement of maximum oxygen uptake and related to daily physical activity intensities by accelerometers. We examined 248 children (140 boys and 108 girls), aged 7.9-11.1 years. Maximum workload and maximal oxygen uptake...... (VO2PEAK) by indirect calorimetry were measured during a maximum bicycle ergometer exercise test. Exercise capacity was adjusted for body mass and (body mass)2/3. Daily physical activity was evaluated by accelerometers, worn around the waist for 4 days. Mean accelerometer counts and time spent...

  1. Random Modeling of Daily Rainfall and Runoff Using a Seasonal Model and Wavelet Denoising

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-ming Chou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Instead of Fourier smoothing, this study applied wavelet denoising to acquire the smooth seasonal mean and corresponding perturbation term from daily rainfall and runoff data in traditional seasonal models, which use seasonal means for hydrological time series forecasting. The denoised rainfall and runoff time series data were regarded as the smooth seasonal mean. The probability distribution of the percentage coefficients can be obtained from calibrated daily rainfall and runoff data. For validated daily rainfall and runoff data, percentage coefficients were randomly generated according to the probability distribution and the law of linear proportion. Multiplying the generated percentage coefficient by the smooth seasonal mean resulted in the corresponding perturbation term. Random modeling of daily rainfall and runoff can be obtained by adding the perturbation term to the smooth seasonal mean. To verify the accuracy of the proposed method, daily rainfall and runoff data for the Wu-Tu watershed were analyzed. The analytical results demonstrate that wavelet denoising enhances the precision of daily rainfall and runoff modeling of the seasonal model. In addition, the wavelet denoising technique proposed in this study can obtain the smooth seasonal mean of rainfall and runoff processes and is suitable for modeling actual daily rainfall and runoff processes.

  2. Evaluation of daily energy expenditure and health-related physical fitness parameters in patients with cholelithiasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celikagi, Cemil; Genc, Abdurrahman; Bal, Ahmet; Ucok, Kagan; Turamanlar, Ozan; Ozkececi, Z Taner; Yalcinkaya, Hatice; Coban, Necip F; Yorulmaz, Sueda

    2014-10-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the daily energy expenditure; resting metabolic rate (RMR); health-related physical fitness parameters such as maximal aerobic capacity, muscle strength, and flexibility; pulmonary function tests (PFTs); and body composition and body fat distribution changes in patients with cholelithiasis, and to compare them with healthy controls. Thirty female patients with cholelithiasis and 30 controls were included in this study. Daily physical activity was monitored using a metabolic Holter and the maximal aerobic capacity was estimated using the Astrand submaximal exercise protocol. The body composition was established with a bioelectrical impedance analyzer. RMR, PFTs, strength, flexibility, circumference, and skinfold measurements were also carried out. Maximal aerobic capacity, trunk flexibility, daily moderate activity duration, daily vigorous activity duration, total energy expenditure, RMR, PFT, lean body mass, adiposity, and body fat distribution values were not significantly different between the patients and the controls. The cholelithiasis patients had lower daily step numbers, handgrip strength, and back-leg strength values, whereas their higher daily sleep duration values were comparable with those of the controls. Our results suggest that daily physical activity and muscle strength were impaired in female cholelithiasis patients when compared with the healthy controls. We suggest that using daily exercises, including not only aerobic but also strength training as lifestyle modifications in cholelithiasis patients, might be helpful for the development of more beneficial illness management strategies.

  3. Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

    2010-01-01

    The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger

  4. The daily commute from work to home: examining employees' experiences in relation to their recovery status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Hooff, Madelon L M

    2015-04-01

    Sufficient recovery after daily effort expenditure at work is important to protect employee health and well-being. However, the role of commuting in the daily effort-recovery process is still not very well understood. The present study aimed to advance insight in this respect by examining if relaxation, detachment, mastery and stressful delays experienced during the commute from work to home affect employees' recovery status after returning home from work and at the end of the evening. Daily job demands were expected to moderate these effects. Serenity and (low) anxiety were included as indicators of employees' recovery status. Data were collected by means of a 5-day daily diary study (three measurements daily) among 76 participants from various industries. Multilevel analyses showed that relaxation was positively and stressful delays were negatively related to employees' recovery status after returning home from work but not to indicators of recovery at the end of the evening. For detachment, similar relations were found but only on days with high job demands. Mastery was not related to employees' recovery status. These findings enhance our insight in the daily effort-recovery cycle and underline the importance of promoting detachment (on demanding workdays) and relaxation on the way home from work. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. ARE THE TOTAL DAILY COST OF FOOD AND DIET QUALITY RELATED: A RANDOM EFFECTS PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

    OpenAIRE

    Carlson, Andrea; Dong, Diansheng; Lino, Mark

    2010-01-01

    There is a common perception that healthy food costs more than less healthy food. In this study we use a demand model for diet quality, rather than the quantity of food. Since in our data, total daily cost and diet quality are both calculated from the foods chosen, we account for the fact that cost is endogenous. We find that while total daily food cost is statistically significant in relation to diet quality, the degree of association is very small. Hence, it does not appear that cost alone ...

  6. Fall-related gait characteristics on the treadmill and in daily life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rispens, Sietse M; Van Dieën, Jaap H; Van Schooten, Kimberley S; Cofré Lizama, L Eduardo; Daffertshofer, Andreas; Beek, Peter J; Pijnappels, Mirjam

    2016-02-02

    Body-worn sensors allow assessment of gait characteristics that are predictive of fall risk, both when measured during treadmill walking and in daily life. The present study aimed to assess differences as well as associations between fall-related gait characteristics measured on a treadmill and in daily life. In a cross-sectional study, trunk accelerations of 18 older adults (72.3 ± 4.5 years) were recorded during walking on a treadmill (Dynaport Hybrid sensor) and during daily life (Dynaport MoveMonitor). A comprehensive set of 32 fall-risk-related gait characteristics was estimated and compared between both settings. For 25 gait characteristics, a systematic difference between treadmill and daily-life measurements was found. Gait was more variable, less symmetric, and less stable during daily life. Fourteen characteristics showed a significant correlation between treadmill and daily-life measurements, including stride time and regularity (0.48 life measurements was found for stride-time variability, acceleration range and sample entropy in vertical and mediolateral direction, gait symmetry in vertical direction, and stability estimated as the local divergence exponent by Rosenstein's method in mediolateral direction (r  0.25). Gait characteristics revealed less stable, less symmetric, and more variable gait during daily life than on a treadmill, yet about half of the characteristics were significantly correlated between conditions. These results suggest that daily-life gait analysis is sensitive to static personal factors (i.e., physical and cognitive capacity) as well as dynamic situational factors (i.e., behavior and environment), which may both represent determinants of fall risk.

  7. Semiparametric Modeling of Daily Ammonia Levels in Naturally Ventilated Caged-Egg Facilities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana María Gutiérrez-Zapata

    Full Text Available Ammonia concentration (AMC in poultry facilities varies depending on different environmental conditions and management; however, this is a relatively unexplored subject in Colombia (South America. The objective of this study was to model daily AMC variations in a naturally ventilated caged-egg facility using generalized additive models. Four sensor nodes were used to record AMC, temperature, relative humidity and wind speed on a daily basis, with 10 minute intervals for 12 weeks. The following variables were included in the model: Heat index, Wind, Hour, Location, Height of the sensor to the ground level, and Period of manure accumulation. All effects included in the model were highly significant (p<0.001. The AMC was higher during the night and early morning when the wind was not blowing (0.0 m/s and the heat index was extreme. The average and maximum AMC were 5.94±3.83 and 31.70 ppm, respectively. Temperatures above 25°C and humidity greater than 80% increased AMC levels. In naturally ventilated caged-egg facilities the daily variations observed in AMC primarily depend on cyclic variations of the environmental conditions and are also affected by litter handling (i.e., removal of the bedding material.

  8. Semiparametric Modeling of Daily Ammonia Levels in Naturally Ventilated Caged-Egg Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez-Zapata, Diana María; Galeano-Vasco, Luis Fernando; Cerón-Muñoz, Mario Fernando

    2016-01-01

    Ammonia concentration (AMC) in poultry facilities varies depending on different environmental conditions and management; however, this is a relatively unexplored subject in Colombia (South America). The objective of this study was to model daily AMC variations in a naturally ventilated caged-egg facility using generalized additive models. Four sensor nodes were used to record AMC, temperature, relative humidity and wind speed on a daily basis, with 10 minute intervals for 12 weeks. The following variables were included in the model: Heat index, Wind, Hour, Location, Height of the sensor to the ground level, and Period of manure accumulation. All effects included in the model were highly significant (p<0.001). The AMC was higher during the night and early morning when the wind was not blowing (0.0 m/s) and the heat index was extreme. The average and maximum AMC were 5.94±3.83 and 31.70 ppm, respectively. Temperatures above 25°C and humidity greater than 80% increased AMC levels. In naturally ventilated caged-egg facilities the daily variations observed in AMC primarily depend on cyclic variations of the environmental conditions and are also affected by litter handling (i.e., removal of the bedding material). PMID:26812150

  9. [Nutritional status in university students: its relation to the number of daily intakes and macronutrients consumption].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pi, Romina Antonella; Vidal, Paula Daniela; Brassesco, Bárbara Romina; Viola, Lorena; Aballay, Laura Rosana

    2015-04-01

    There is increasing scientific evidence that nutrition influence positive and negative on health along life. Many studies have reported that the student population is a particularly vulnerable group from the nutritional point of view, due to it is characterized by meal skipping frequently and nibble between eating occasions. to establish the relationship between the number of daily dietary intakes and nutritional status in male students aged 23 to 33 years of the National Technological University, in the city of Córdoba, in 2013. in order to achieve this aim, a prospective, cross-sectional and descriptive correlational design was used. Descriptive and inferential analysis were applied by using multiple logistic regression models. Almost 50% of the sample analyzed presented overweight (OW) and 40% high body fat (BF). In relation to the intakes numbers, the students that take less than 4 and more than 6 had 2 times more chance of presenting overweight and high body fat. It was found that as age increases it also does the Body Fat Storage, whereas diminished physical activity increases the chance of having high Body Mass Index and Body Fat. Moreover, high ingestion of carbohydrates increases the chance of high Body Fat and Overweight, and a high intake of protein and lipids increases the risk of high Body Fat. it is recognized that high or low number of daily intakes than recommended, low level of physical activity, high consumption of carbohydrates and having more than 29 years is related to high overweight and body fat. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

  10. Exploring the relation of depression and overt behavior with daily diaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopko, Derek R; Mullane, C M

    2008-09-01

    Behavioral models of depression highlight decreased response-contingent positive reinforcement as critical toward conceptualizing depressive affect, decreased reinforcement being caused by changes in the quantitative (i.e., number or intensity) or qualitative (i.e., type or function) aspects of reinforcing events, availability of reinforcement, inadequate instrumental behaviors, and/or an increased frequency of punishment [Lewinsohn, P. M. (1974). A behavioral approach to depression. In R. M. Friedman, & M. M. Katz (Eds.), The psychology of depression: Contemporary theory and research. New York: Wiley]. Building on previous research and addressing methodological limitations, this study utilized a daily diary method and behavioral coding system to directly assess whether qualitative aspects (or types) of human behavior differed as a function of depression level. Relative to non-depressed individuals, mildly depressed participants engaged less frequently in social, physical, and educational behaviors and more frequently in employment-related activities. These data support behavioral models of depression and have clinical relevance as highlighted with reference to behavioral activation interventions for depression.

  11. Hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation with BTOPMC model and comparison with Xin'anjiang model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hong-jun BAO; Li-li WANG; Zhi-jia LI; Lin-na ZHAO; Guo-ping ZHANG

    2010-01-01

    A grid-based distributed hydrological model, the Block-wise use of TOPMODEL (BTOPMC), which was developed from the original TOPMODEL, was used for hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation. In the BTOPMC model, the runoff is explicitly calculated on a cell-by-cell basis, and the Muskingum-Cunge flow concentration method is used. In order to test the model's applicability, the BTOPMC model and the Xin'anjiang model were applied to the simulation of a humid watershed and a semi-humid to semi-arid watershed in China. The model parameters were optimized with the Shuffle Complex Evolution (SCE-UA) method. Results show that both models can effectively simulate the daily hydrograph in humid watersheds, but that the BTOPMC model performs poorly in semi-humid to semi-arid watersheds. The excess-infiltration mechanism should be incorporated into the BTOPMC model to broaden the model's applicability.

  12. A descriptive analysis of relations between parents' self-reported smoking behavior and infants' daily exposure to environmental tobacco smoke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nauck Matthias

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aims of the present study were to examine relations between parents' self-reported smoking behavior and infants' daily exposure to environmental tobacco smoke, as assessed by urinary cotinine-to-creatinine ratio (CCR, and to describe the CCR over seven days among infants at home. Methods A convenience sample of 27 households was drawn. Each household had to have at least one daily tobacco smoker and one child up to three years of age. Over a seven-day period, urine samples were obtained from the child daily. To examine relations between parents' self-reported smoking and infants' daily CCR, generalized estimating equation (GEE analysis was used. Results The data revealed that infants from households with indoor smoking had higher CCRs than infants in households with outdoor smoking. CCRs were higher in girls than in boys. Older infants had lower CCRs than younger infants. Smoking outside the home versus inside the home, infant's gender, and infants' age accounted for 68% of the variance in CCR in a GEE data analysis model. No increase or decrease of CCR over time was found. Conclusion The findings suggest that parents' self-reported smoking indoors at home versus outdoors is predictive of CCR among infants three and younger. Higher CCR concentrations in girls' urine need further examination. Furthermore, significant fluctuations in daily CCR were not apparent in infants over a seven-day time period.

  13. Statistical models for estimating daily streamflow in Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holtschlag, D.J.; Salehi, Habib

    1992-01-01

    Statistical models for estimating daily streamflow were analyzed for 25 pairs of streamflow-gaging stations in Michigan. Stations were paired by randomly choosing a station operated in 1989 at which 10 or more years of continuous flow data had been collected and at which flow is virtually unregulated; a nearby station was chosen where flow characteristics are similar. Streamflow data from the 25 randomly selected stations were used as the response variables; streamflow data at the nearby stations were used to generate a set of explanatory variables. Ordinary-least squares regression (OLSR) equations, autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) equations, and transfer function-noise (TFN) equations were developed to estimate the log transform of flow for the 25 randomly selected stations. The precision of each type of equation was evaluated on the basis of the standard deviation of the estimation errors. OLSR equations produce one set of estimation errors; ARIMA and TFN models each produce l sets of estimation errors corresponding to the forecast lead. The lead-l forecast is the estimate of flow l days ahead of the most recent streamflow used as a response variable in the estimation. In this analysis, the standard deviation of lead l ARIMA and TFN forecast errors were generally lower than the standard deviation of OLSR errors for l weighted average of forecasts based on TFN equations and backcasts (forecasts of the reverse-ordered series) based on ARIMA equations. The standard deviation of composite errors varied throughout the length of the estimation interval and generally was at maximum near the center of the interval. For comparison with OLSR errors, the mean standard deviation of composite errors were computed for intervals of length 1 to 40 days. The mean standard deviation of length-l composite errors were generally less than the standard deviation of the OLSR errors for l error magnitudes were compared by computing ratios of the mean standard deviation

  14. Forecasting daily political opinion polls using the fractionally cointegrated VAR model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Shibaev, Sergei S.

    trend from the model follows the vote share of the UKIP very closely, and we thus interpret it as a measure of Euro-skepticism in public opinion rather than an indicator of the more traditional left-right political spectrum. In terms of prediction of vote shares in the election, forecasts generated......We examine forecasting performance of the recent fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model. We use daily polling data of political support in the United Kingdom for 2010-2015 and compare with popular competing models at several forecast horizons. Our findings show that the four...... variants of the FCVAR model considered are generally ranked as the top four models in terms of forecast accuracy, and the FCVAR model significantly outperforms both univariate fractional models and the standard cointegrated VAR (CVAR) model at all forecast horizons. The relative forecast improvement...

  15. The relations of parental expressivity and support to children's coping with daily stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valiente, Carlos; Fabes, Richard A; Eisenberg, Nancy; Spinrad, Tracy L

    2004-03-01

    The relations of parents' emotional expressivity, mothers' support, and children's daily stress to children's constructive coping were examined in a sample of ninety-four 7- to 12-year-old children. For 2 weeks, children, together with their mothers, completed daily diaries of their stressful events. Mothers and fathers reported on their expression of positive, negative submissive, and negative dominant emotion. Although fathers' expressivity was not related to children's constructive coping, mothers' expression of negative emotion, particularly negative dominant emotion, was negatively related to children's constructive coping. Children's stress was negatively related to their constructive coping, and this relation was stronger for children exposed to low levels of parents' positive emotion and mothers' expression of negative submissive emotion. Children's constructive coping was positively related to mothers' supportive strategies.

  16. Modeling of Sokoto Daily Average Temperature: A Fractional ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the daily average temperature (DAT) series of Sokoto metropolis for the period of 01/01/2003 to. 03/04/2007. ... in Melbourne, Australia, for the period 1981–1990 ..... Advances in Meteorology, 1-2. Period ... paper, Department of Economics.

  17. A regional neural network model for predicting mean daily river water temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Tyler; DeWeber, Jefferson Tyrell

    2014-01-01

    Water temperature is a fundamental property of river habitat and often a key aspect of river resource management, but measurements to characterize thermal regimes are not available for most streams and rivers. As such, we developed an artificial neural network (ANN) ensemble model to predict mean daily water temperature in 197,402 individual stream reaches during the warm season (May–October) throughout the native range of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the eastern U.S. We compared four models with different groups of predictors to determine how well water temperature could be predicted by climatic, landform, and land cover attributes, and used the median prediction from an ensemble of 100 ANNs as our final prediction for each model. The final model included air temperature, landform attributes and forested land cover and predicted mean daily water temperatures with moderate accuracy as determined by root mean squared error (RMSE) at 886 training sites with data from 1980 to 2009 (RMSE = 1.91 °C). Based on validation at 96 sites (RMSE = 1.82) and separately for data from 2010 (RMSE = 1.93), a year with relatively warmer conditions, the model was able to generalize to new stream reaches and years. The most important predictors were mean daily air temperature, prior 7 day mean air temperature, and network catchment area according to sensitivity analyses. Forest land cover at both riparian and catchment extents had relatively weak but clear negative effects. Predicted daily water temperature averaged for the month of July matched expected spatial trends with cooler temperatures in headwaters and at higher elevations and latitudes. Our ANN ensemble is unique in predicting daily temperatures throughout a large region, while other regional efforts have predicted at relatively coarse time steps. The model may prove a useful tool for predicting water temperatures in sampled and unsampled rivers under current conditions and future projections of climate

  18. Jealousy in adolescents' daily lives: How does it relate to interpersonal context and well-being?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lennarz, H.K.; Lichtwarck-Aschoff, A.; Finkenauer, C.; Granic, I.

    2017-01-01

    Past studies have shown that jealousy peaks in adolescence. However, little is known about how and when adolescents experience jealousy in their daily lives. The current study aimed to examine the relation between state jealousy, the more general propensity to feel jealous, the interpersonal context

  19. Effects of temperature seasonality on tundra vegetation productivity using a daily vegetation dynamics model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, H. E.; Erler, A.; Frazier, J.; Bhatt, U. S.

    2011-12-01

    Changes in the seasonality of air temperature will elicit interacting effects on the dynamics of snow cover, nutrient availability, vegetation growth, and other ecosystem properties and processes in arctic tundra. Simulation models often do not have the fine temporal resolution necessary to develop theory and propose hypotheses for the effects of daily and weekly timescale changes on ecosystem dynamics. We therefore developed a daily version of an arctic tundra vegetation dynamics model (ArcVeg) to simulate how changes in the seasonality of air temperatures influences the dynamics of vegetation growth and carbon sequestration across regions of arctic tundra. High temporal-resolution air and soil temperature data collected from field sites across the five arctic tundra bioclimate subzones were used to develop a daily weather generator operable for sites throughout the arctic tundra. Empirical relationships between temperature and soil nitrogen were used to generate daily dynamics of soil nitrogen availability, which drive the daily uptake of nitrogen and growth among twelve tundra plant functional types. Seasonal dynamics of the remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and remotely sensed land surface temperature from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) GIMMS 3g dataset were used to investigate constraints on the start of the growing season, although there was no indication of any spatially consistent temperature or day-length controls on greening onset. Because of the exponential nature of the relationship between soil temperature and nitrogen mineralization, temperature changes during the peak of the growing season had greater effects on vegetation productivity than changes earlier in the growing season. However, early season changes in temperature had a greater effect on the relative productivities of different plant functional types, with potential influences on species composition.

  20. Impact of breakfast on daily energy intake - an analysis of absolute versus relative breakfast calories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wagenpfeil Stefan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective The role of breakfast energy in total daily energy intake is a matter of debate. Acute feeding experiments demonstrated that high breakfast energy leads to greater overall intake supported by cross-sectional data of a free-living population. On the other hand, a large intraindividual analysis has indicated that a high proportion of breakfast to overall intake is associated with lower daily energy intake. To evaluate these apparently contradictory results in greater detail both ways of analysis were applied to the same data set of dietary records. Methods On an intraindividual basis total daily energy intake was related to the absolute values of breakfast energy intake or to the ratio of breakfast to overall intake, respectively. Food intake of 280 obese and 100 normal weight subjects was analyzed who recorded over 10 (obese or 14 (normal weight consecutive days, respectively. Results Increasing breakfast energy was associated with greater overall intake in normal weight and obese subjects. The increasing ratio of breakfast to total daily energy intake was associated with a significant reduction of overall intake on days where post-breakfast energy was significantly reduced. Correlational and multiple regression analysis support the concept that absolute breakfast calories have the strongest influence on daily energy intake. Conclusion Reduced breakfast energy intake is associated with lower total daily intake. The influence of the ratio of breakfast to overall energy intake largely depends on the post-breakfast rather than breakfast intake pattern. Therefore, overweight and obese subjects should consider the reduction of breakfast calories as a simple option to improve their daily energy balance.

  1. Accelerometer-measured daily physical activity related to aerobic fitness in children and adolescents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, Magnus; Andersen, Lars Bo

    2011-01-01

    Maximum oxygen uptake ([Vdot]O(2PEAK)) is generally considered to be the best single marker for aerobic fitness. While a positive relationship between daily physical activity and aerobic fitness has been established in adults, the relationship appears less clear in children and adolescents...... if they included measurement of daily physical activity by accelerometry and related to a [Vdot]O(2PEAK) either measured directly at a maximal exercise test or estimated from maximal power output. A total of nine studies were identified, with a total number of 6116 children and adolescents investigated. Most...

  2. Daily Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using Hybridizing Wavelet and Artificial Neural Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ani Shabri

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A new method based on integrating discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks (WANN model for daily crude oil price forecasting is proposed. The discrete Mallat wavelet transform is used to decompose the crude price series into one approximation series and some details series (DS. The new series obtained by adding the effective one approximation series and DS component is then used as input into the ANN model to forecast crude oil price. The relative performance of WANN model was compared to regular ANN model for crude oil forecasting at lead times of 1 day for two main crude oil price series, West Texas Intermediate (WTI and Brent crude oil spot prices. In both cases, WANN model was found to provide more accurate crude oil prices forecasts than individual ANN model.

  3. Accelerometer-measured daily physical activity related to aerobic fitness in children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dencker, Magnus; Andersen, Lars B

    2011-06-01

    Maximum oxygen uptake (VO(2PEAK)) is generally considered to be the best single marker for aerobic fitness. While a positive relationship between daily physical activity and aerobic fitness has been established in adults, the relationship appears less clear in children and adolescents. The purpose of this paper is to summarise recently published data on the relationship between daily physical activity, as measured by accelerometers, and VO(2PEAK) in children and adolescents. A PubMed search was performed on 29 October 2010 to identify relevant articles. Studies were considered relevant if they included measurement of daily physical activity by accelerometry and related to a VO(2PEAK) either measured directly at a maximal exercise test or estimated from maximal power output. A total of nine studies were identified, with a total number of 6116 children and adolescents investigated. Most studies reported a low-to-moderate relationship (r = 0.10-0.45) between objectively measured daily physical activity and VO(2PEAK). No conclusive evidence exists that physical activity of higher intensities are more closely related to VO(2PEAK), than lower intensities.

  4. When, how much and what foods are eaten are related to total daily food intake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Castro, John M

    2009-10-01

    Intake in the morning is associated with a reduction in the total intake for the day, while intake at night is associated with greater overall daily intake. These associations are macronutrient specific, with morning carbohydrate intake associated with reduced daily carbohydrate intake, morning fat intake associated with reduced daily fat intake and morning protein intake associated with reduced daily protein intake. Since different types of foods contain differing proportions of macronutrients, the present study investigated the associations of different types of foods ingested at various times of day with total daily and macronutrient intakes. The intakes of 388 male and 621 female free-living individuals reported in 7 d diet diaries were reanalysed. The intakes of twenty-four different types of foods and seven different drinks occurring during the morning (04.00-10.29 hours), afternoon (10.30-16.59 hours) and evening (17.00-02.00 hours) were identified and related to overall daily intakes. Dairy foods, ice cream, beef, other meats, potatoes, pastry, nuts, chips and snacks, condiments, alcohol and soda were significantly associated with higher total intake over the day, while fruit, soup, breakfast cereal, pasta, pizza, water, coffee/tea and diet soda were either not associated or were associated with lower overall intake. Dietary energy density appeared to mediate the associations between particular foods and beverages and overall energy intake. This suggests that eating low-density foods in the morning and avoiding high-density foods at night might aid in reducing overall intake and may be useful in dietary interventions for overweight and obesity.

  5. The Effects of Use of Average Instead of Daily Weather Data in Crop Growth Simulation Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nonhebel, Sanderine

    1994-01-01

    Development and use of crop growth simulation models has increased in the last decades. Most crop growth models require daily weather data as input values. These data are not easy to obtain and therefore in many studies daily data are generated, or average values are used as input data for these

  6. Climate change uncertainty for daily minimum and maximum temperatures: a model inter-comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lobell, D; Bonfils, C; Duffy, P

    2006-11-09

    Several impacts of climate change may depend more on changes in mean daily minimum (T{sub min}) or maximum (T{sub max}) temperatures than daily averages. To evaluate uncertainties in these variables, we compared projections of T{sub min} and T{sub max} changes by 2046-2065 for 12 climate models under an A2 emission scenario. Average modeled changes in T{sub max} were slightly lower in most locations than T{sub min}, consistent with historical trends exhibiting a reduction in diurnal temperature ranges. However, while average changes in T{sub min} and T{sub max} were similar, the inter-model variability of T{sub min} and T{sub max} projections exhibited substantial differences. For example, inter-model standard deviations of June-August T{sub max} changes were more than 50% greater than for T{sub min} throughout much of North America, Europe, and Asia. Model differences in cloud changes, which exert relatively greater influence on T{sub max} during summer and T{sub min} during winter, were identified as the main source of uncertainty disparities. These results highlight the importance of considering separately projections for T{sub max} and T{sub min} when assessing climate change impacts, even in cases where average projected changes are similar. In addition, impacts that are most sensitive to summertime T{sub min} or wintertime T{sub max} may be more predictable than suggested by analyses using only projections of daily average temperatures.

  7. Linear and regressive stochastic models for prediction of daily maximum ozone values at Mexico City atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bravo, J. L [Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Nava, M. M [Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Gay, C [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

    2001-07-01

    We developed a procedure to forecast, with 2 or 3 hours, the daily maximum of surface ozone concentrations. It involves the adjustment of Autoregressive Integrated and Moving Average (ARIMA) models to daily ozone maximum concentrations at 10 monitoring atmospheric stations in Mexico City during one-year period. A one-day forecast is made and it is adjusted with the meteorological and solar radiation information acquired during the first 3 hours before the occurrence of the maximum value. The relative importance for forecasting of the history of the process and of meteorological conditions is evaluated. Finally an estimate of the daily probability of exceeding a given ozone level is made. [Spanish] Se aplica un procedimiento basado en la metodologia conocida como ARIMA, para predecir, con 2 o 3 horas de anticipacion, el valor maximo de la concentracion diaria de ozono. Esta basado en el calculo de autorregresiones y promedios moviles aplicados a los valores maximos de ozono superficial provenientes de 10 estaciones de monitoreo atmosferico en la Ciudad de Mexico y obtenidos durante un ano de muestreo. El pronostico para un dia se ajusta con la informacion meteorologica y de radiacion solar correspondiente a un periodo que antecede con al menos tres horas la ocurrencia esperada del valor maximo. Se compara la importancia relativa de la historia del proceso y de las condiciones meteorologicas previas para el pronostico. Finalmente se estima la probabilidad diaria de que un nivel normativo o preestablecido para contingencias de ozono sea rebasado.

  8. [Development of social activities-related daily life satisfaction scale for the elderly and evaluation of its reliability and validity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okamoto, Hideaki

    2010-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a Social Activities-Related Daily Life Satisfaction Scale specifically applicable to elderly people in communities and to evaluate its reliability and validity. Sixteen items were extracted from an initial pool and assessed for inclusion in the scale by correlation and exploratory factor analyses. To confirm validity, confirmatory factor analysis was conducted and correlation coefficients were calculated. In addition, t-tests were performed in order to generate scores of the subscale related to activity. To prove reliability, Cronbach's coefficient alpha values were calculated. Data for 755 older adults aged 65 to 84 years were obtained from a mail survey in Ichikawa City, Chiba Prefecture. Exploratory factor analyses indicated that four factors, "satisfaction with learning" (four items), "satisfaction with usefulness to others and society" (four items), "satisfaction with health and physical strength" (three items), and "satisfaction with friends" (three items) should be extracted. Confirmatory factor analysis for assessing the 14-item four-factor model showed high goodness of fit indices (GFI = 0.943, AGFI = 0.915, RMSEA = 0.068). Concurrent validity was established by comparing the score of the scale with five external variables (Activity and Daily Life Satisfaction Scale for the Elderly, Life Satisfaction Index K, etc). Student's t-tests revealed that each score of the subscale was positively associated with activity variable. The overall Cronbach's coefficient alpha for the scale was 0.919 and for its four subscales values ranged from 0.814 to 0.887. A Social Activities-Related Daily Life Satisfaction Scale was derived consisting of four subscales, "satisfaction with learning", "satisfaction with usefulness to others and society", "satisfaction with health and physical strength", and "satisfaction with friends". The results of the present study suggested that the Social Activities-Related Daily Life Satisfaction Scale

  9. Relationships between event-related potentials (P300) and activities of daily living in Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maeshima, Shinichiro; Itakura, Toru; Komai, Norihiko; Matsumoto, Tomoko; Ueyoshi, Akitaka

    2002-01-01

    The correlation between event-related potentials (P300) and activities of daily living was studied in Parkinson's disease. The P300 of 30 patients with Parkinson's disease and 118 normal subjects were recorded. All patients were evaluated by the Mini-Mental State, Kana-hiroi Test, word fluency, Raven's Coloured Progressive Matrices, Osaka Memory Scale, revised Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale, self-rating depression scale, state-trait anxiety inventory, and Functional Independence Measure. Eight patients showed prolonged P300 latencies. P300 latency showed relationships to the Mini-Mental State (p Raven's Coloured Progressive Matrices (p < 0.01) and motor items of the Functional Independence Measure (p < 0.05). It was concluded that P300 should be useful in predicting difficulties with activities of daily living in patients with Parkinson's disease.

  10. Examination of relative reinforcement effects of stimuli identified through pretreatment and daily brief preference assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLeon, I G; Fisher, W W; Rodriguez-Catter, V; Maglieri, K; Herman, K; Marhefka, J M

    2001-01-01

    Several brief preference assessments have recently been developed to identify reinforcers for individuals with developmental disabilities. One purported advantage of brief assessments is that they can be administered frequently, thus accommodating shifts in preference and presumably enhancing reinforcement effects. In this study, we initially conducted lengthy paired-choice preference assessments and identified a hierarchy of preferred items for 5 individuals with developmental disabilities. Subsequently, brief multiple-stimulus-without-replacement assessments using the same items were completed each day prior to work sessions. On days when results of the daily brief assessment differed from the one-time lengthy assessment, the relative reinforcing effects of the top items from each assessment were compared in a concurrent-schedule arrangement. The results revealed that when the two assessments differed, participants generally allocated more responses to the task associated with the daily top-ranked item.

  11. Melatonin receptor of a reef fish with lunar-related rhythmicity: cloning and daily variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Yong-Ju; Park, Ji-Gweon; Kim, Se-Jae; Lee, Young-Don; Saydur Rahman, Md; Takemura, Akihiro

    2006-09-01

    Melatonin receptors are expressed in neural and peripheral tissues and mediate melatonin actions on the regulation of circadian rhythms in various species. For overall understanding of 'circa' rhythms in the golden rabbitfish, Siganus guttatus, which exhibits restricted lunar-related rhythms and spawns synchronously around the first quarter moon, the aim of the present study was to clone a melatonin receptor (Mel(lb)) cDNA and examine daily variations of Mel(lb) mRNA expression in certain tissues of the rabbitfish. The full-length Mel(lb) cDNA (1808 bp) contained an open reading frame to encode a protein with a length of 354 amino acids, which was highly homologous to a protein of nonmammalian species. Northern blot analysis showed transcripts of Mel(lb) in the brain and retina. Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction analysis also revealed expression of Mel(lb) in all tissues tested. Significantly high expression of the gene during daytime was evident in the liver and kidney. When the expression of Mel(lb) was examined in the brain and retina under conditions of light/dark cycles or constant darkness, daily and circadian variations of gene expression with two increases during daytime and nighttime for the brain and a single increase during nighttime for the retina were recognized. Moreover, daily variations in the expression of Mel(lb) were observed in the cultured pineal gland. These results suggest that the melatonin receptor plays a role in integration of melatonin actions in various tissues and that daily variations of Mel(lb) in the neural tissues may be related to regulation of circadian clock.

  12. Measuring Disability: Application of the Rasch Model to Activities of Daily Living (ADL/IADL).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, T. Joseph; DeChello, Laurie M.; Garcia, Ramon; Fifield, Judith; Rothfield, Naomi; Reisine, Susan

    2001-01-01

    Performed a comparative analysis of Activities of Daily Living (ADL) items administered to 4,430 older adults and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living administered to 605 people with rheumatoid arthritis scoring both with Likert and Rasch measurement models. Findings show the superiority of the Rasch approach over the Likert method. (SLD)

  13. A Bigraph Relational Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beauquier, Maxime; Schürmann, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we present a model based on relations for bigraphical reactive system [Milner09]. Its defining characteristics are that validity and reaction relations are captured as traces in a multi-set rewriting system. The relational model is derived from Milner's graphical definition...

  14. Daily Energy Expenditure and Its Relation to Health Care Costs in Patients Undergoing Ambulatory Electrocardiographic Monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, Jason; Abdulla, Rami Khoury; Yeow, Raymond; Aggarwal, Anshul; Boura, Judith; Wegner, James; Franklin, Barry A

    2017-02-15

    Our increasingly sedentary lifestyle is associated with a heightened risk of obesity, diabetes, heart disease, and cardiovascular mortality. Using the recently developed heart rate index formula in 843 patients (mean ± SD age 62.3 ± 15.7 years) who underwent 24-hour ambulatory electrocardiographic (ECG) monitoring, we estimated average and peak daily energy expenditure, expressed as metabolic equivalents (METs), and related these data to subsequent hospital encounters and health care costs. In this cohort, estimated daily average and peak METs were 1.7 ± 0.7 and 5.5 ± 2.1, respectively. Patients who achieved daily bouts of peak energy expenditure ≥5 METs had fewer hospital encounters (p = 0.006) and median health care costs that were nearly 50% lower (p health care costs depending on whether they achieved monitoring (p = 0.005). Interestingly, patients who achieved ≥5 METs had lower and no significant difference in their health care costs, regardless of their body mass index (p = 0.46). Patients with previous percutaneous coronary intervention who achieved ≥5 METs had lower health care costs (p = 0.044) and fewer hospital encounters (p = 0.004) than those who achieved monitoring may provide useful information regarding health care utilization in patients with and without previous percutaneous coronary intervention, irrespective of body habitus. Our findings are the first to link lower intensities of peak daily energy expenditure, estimated from ambulatory ECG monitoring, with increased health care utilization.

  15. Instantaneous-to-daily GPP upscaling schemes based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model: correcting the overestimation of GPP by directly using daily average meteorological inputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fumin; Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Black, T Andrew; Zhou, Bin

    2014-11-01

    Daily canopy photosynthesis is usually temporally upscaled from instantaneous (i.e., seconds) photosynthesis rate. The nonlinear response of photosynthesis to meteorological variables makes the temporal scaling a significant challenge. In this study, two temporal upscaling schemes of daily photosynthesis, the integrated daily model (IDM) and the segmented daily model (SDM), are presented by considering the diurnal variations of meteorological variables based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model. The two models, as well as a simple average daily model (SADM) with daily average meteorological inputs, were validated using the tower-derived gross primary production (GPP) to assess their abilities in simulating daily photosynthesis. The results showed IDM closely followed the seasonal trend of the tower-derived GPP with an average RMSE of 1.63 g C m(-2) day(-1), and an average Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E) of 0.87. SDM performed similarly to IDM in GPP simulation but decreased the computation time by >66%. SADM overestimated daily GPP by about 15% during the growing season compared to IDM. Both IDM and SDM greatly decreased the overestimation by SADM, and improved the simulation of daily GPP by reducing the RMSE by 34 and 30%, respectively. The results indicated that IDM and SDM are useful temporal upscaling approaches, and both are superior to SADM in daily GPP simulation because they take into account the diurnally varying responses of photosynthesis to meteorological variables. SDM is computationally more efficient, and therefore more suitable for long-term and large-scale GPP simulations.

  16. Modeling daily soil salinity dynamics in response to agricultural and environmental changes in coastal Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payo, Andrés.; Lázár, Attila N.; Clarke, Derek; Nicholls, Robert J.; Bricheno, Lucy; Mashfiqus, Salehin; Haque, Anisul

    2017-05-01

    Understanding the dynamics of salt movement in the soil is a prerequisite for devising appropriate management strategies for land productivity of coastal regions, especially low-lying delta regions, which support many millions of farmers around the world. At present, there are no numerical models able to resolve soil salinity at regional scale and at daily time steps. In this research, we develop a novel holistic approach to simulate soil salinization comprising an emulator-based soil salt and water balance calculated at daily time steps. The method is demonstrated for the agriculture areas of coastal Bangladesh (˜20,000 km2). This shows that we can reproduce the dynamics of soil salinity under multiple land uses, including rice crops, combined shrimp and rice farming, as well as non-rice crops. The model also reproduced well the observed spatial soil salinity for the year 2009. Using this approach, we have projected the soil salinity for three different climate ensembles, including relative sea-level rise for the year 2050. Projected soil salinity changes are significantly smaller than other reported projections. The results suggest that inter-season weather variability is a key driver of salinization of agriculture soils at coastal Bangladesh.

  17. Modeling daily realized futures volatility with singular spectrum analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomakos, Dimitrios D.; Wang, Tao; Wille, Luc T.

    2002-09-01

    Using singular spectrum analysis (SSA), we model the realized volatility and logarithmic standard deviations of two important futures return series. The realized volatility and logarithmic standard deviations are constructed following the methodology of Andersen et al. [J. Am. Stat. Ass. 96 (2001) 42-55] using intra-day transaction data. We find that SSA decomposes the volatility series quite well and effectively captures both the market trend (accounting for about 34-38% of the total variance in the series) and, more importantly, a number of underlying market periodicities. Reliable identification of any periodicities is extremely important for options pricing and risk management and we believe that SSA can be a useful addition to the financial practitioners’ toolbox.

  18. Multilevel Factor Analysis and Structural Equation Modeling of Daily Diary Coping Data: Modeling Trait and State Variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roesch, Scott C.; Aldridge, Arianna A.; Stocking, Stephanie N.; Villodas, Feion; Leung, Queenie; Bartley, Carrie E.; Black, Lisa J.

    2010-01-01

    This study used multilevel modeling of daily diary data to model within-person (state) and between-person (trait) components of coping variables. This application included the introduction of multilevel factor analysis (MFA) and a comparison of the predictive ability of these trait/state factors. Daily diary data were collected on a large (n =…

  19. One-day offset in daily hydrologic modeling: An exploration of the issue in automatic model calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    The literature of daily hydrologic modelling illustrates that daily simulation models are incapable of accurately representing hydrograph timing due to relationships between precipitation and watershed hydrologic response. For watersheds with a time of concentration less than 24 hrs and a late day p...

  20. Technical Note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Thrasher

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available When applying a quantile mapping-based bias correction to daily temperature extremes simulated by a global climate model (GCM, the transformed values of maximum and minimum temperatures are changed, and the diurnal temperature range (DTR can become physically unrealistic. While causes are not thoroughly explored, there is a strong relationship between GCM biases in snow albedo feedback during snowmelt and bias correction resulting in unrealistic DTR values. We propose a technique to bias correct DTR, based on comparing observations and GCM historic simulations, and combine that with either bias correcting daily maximum temperatures and calculating daily minimum temperatures or vice versa. By basing the bias correction on a base period of 1961–1980 and validating it during a test period of 1981–1999, we show that bias correcting DTR and maximum daily temperature can produce more accurate estimations of daily temperature extremes while avoiding the pathological cases of unrealistic DTR values.

  1. Patterns of daily energy management at work: relations to employee well-being and job characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnunen, Ulla; Feldt, Taru; de Bloom, Jessica; Korpela, Kalevi

    2015-11-01

    The present study aimed at identifying subgroups of employees with similar daily energy management strategies at work and finding out whether well-being indicators and job characteristics differ between these subgroups. The study was conducted by electronic questionnaire among 1122 Finnish employees. First, subgroups of employees with unique and distinctive patterns of energy management strategies were identified using latent profile analysis. Second, differences in well-being indicators and job characteristics between the subgroups were investigated by means of ANCOVA. Four subgroups (i.e., patterns) were identified and named: Passives (n = 371), Averages (n = 390), Casuals (n = 272) and Actives (n = 89). Passives used all three (i.e., work-related, private micro-break and physical micro-break) strategies less frequently than other subgroups, whereas Actives used work-related and physical energy management strategies more frequently than other subgroups. Averages used all strategies on an average level. Casuals' use of all strategies came close to that of Actives, notably in a shared low use of private micro-break strategies. Active and Casual patterns maintained vigor and vitality. Autonomy and social support at work played a significant role in providing opportunities for the use of beneficial energy management strategies. Autonomy and support at work seem to support active and casual use of daily energy management, which is important in staying energized throughout the working day.

  2. A Comparison of Four Precipitation Distribution Models Used in Daily Stochastic Models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Yonghe; ZHANG Wanchang; SHAO Yuehong; ZHANG Kexin

    2011-01-01

    Stochastic weather generators are statistical models that produce random numbers that resemble the observed weather data on which they have been fitted; thev are widely used in meteorological and hydrological simulations. For modeling daily precipitation in weather generators, first-order Markov chain-dependent exponential, gamma, mixed-exponential, and lognormal distributions can be used. To examine the performance of these four distributions for precipitation simulation, they were fitted to observed data collected at 10 stations in the watershed of Yishu River. The parameters of these models were estimated using a maximum-likelihood technique performed using genetic algorithms. Parameters for each calendar month and the Fourier series describing parameters for the whole year were estimated separately. Bayesian information criterion, simulated monthly mean, maximum daily value, and variance were tested and compared to evaluate the fitness and performance of these models. The results indicate that the lognormal and mixed-exponential distributions give smaller BICs, but their stochastic simulations have overestimation and underestimation respectively, while the gamma and exponential distributions give larger BICs, but their stochastic simulations produced monthly mean precipitation very well. When these distributions were fitted using Fourier series, they all underestimated the above statistics for the months of June, July and August.

  3. Relations between mothers' daily work, home, and relationship stress with characteristics of mother-child conflict interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Jackie A; Boyer, Brittany P; Villarreal, Deyaun L; Smith, Olivia A

    2017-06-01

    This study examined whether daily variations in levels of mothers' work, home, and relationship stress were related to collaborative and oppositional qualities of mother-child conflict interactions across 1 week. Mothers reported on 1 specific conflict interaction with their 5- to 8-year-old child and their work, home, and relationship stress through online surveys each day for 7 consecutive days. Diary data from 142 mothers were analyzed in 6 multilevel models, each including within- and between-family levels of a stressor predicting collaborative or oppositional conflict qualities. Results suggested that families in the sample differed from each other, and also varied during the week, in collaborative and oppositional conflict qualities as well as stress in all 3 domains. Mothers reported a greater degree of oppositional conflict qualities on days characterized by higher perceptions of home chaos. Additionally, mothers who reported higher average levels of negativity in romantic relationships endorsed oppositional conflict qualities to a greater extent than mothers with lower relationship negativity. Two multilevel models including all 3 stressors in relation to collaborative and oppositional conflict revealed that for mothers managing multiple roles, average romantic relationship stress was the most important unique contributor to mother-child conflict qualities and daily relationship stress was particularly influential among mothers with sons compared to those with daughters. Results support the spillover hypothesis of stress within the family system and are discussed in terms of mothers' coping mechanisms and emotional engagement. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  4. Simple model for daily evaporation from fallow tilled soil under spring conditions in a temperate climate.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boesten, J.J.T.I.; Stroosnijder, L.

    1986-01-01

    A simple parametric model is presented to estimate daily evaporation from fallow tilled soil under spring conditions in a temperate climate. In this model, cumulative actual evaporation during a drying cycle is directly proportional to the square root of cumulative potential evaporation. The model

  5. Daily global solar radiation modelling using multi-layer perceptron neural networks in semi-arid region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mawloud GUERMOUI

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Accurate estimation of Daily Global Solar Radiation (DGSR has been a major goal for solar energy application. However, solar radiation measurements are not a simple task for several reasons. In the cases where data are not available, it is very common the use of computational models to estimate the missing data, which are based mainly of the search for relationships between weather variables, such as temperature, humidity, sunshine duration, etc. In this respect, the present study focuses on the development of artificial neural network (ANN model for estimation of daily global solar radiation on horizontal surface in Ghardaia city (South Algeria. In this analysis back-propagation algorithm is applied. Daily mean air temperature, relative humidity and sunshine duration was used as climatic inputs parameters, while the daily global solar radiation (DGSR was the only output of the ANN. We have evaluated Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP models to estimate DGSR using three year of measurement (2005-2008. It was found that MLP-model based on sunshine duration and mean air temperature give accurate results in term of Mean Absolute Bias Error, Root Mean Square Error, Relative Square Error and Correlation Coefficient. The obtained values of these indicators are 0.67 MJ/m², 1.28 MJ/m², 6.12%and 98.18%, respectively which shows that MLP is highly qualified for DGSR estimation in semi-arid climates.

  6. A conceptual model of daily water balance following partial clearing from forest to pasture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Bari

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available A simple conceptual water balance model representing the streamflow generation processes on a daily time step following land use change is presented. The model consists of five stores: (i Dry, Wet and Subsurface Stores for vertical and lateral water flow, (ii a transient Stream zone Store (iii a saturated Goundwater Store. The soil moisture balance in the top soil Dry and Wet Stores are the most important components of the model and characterize the dynamically varying saturated areas responsible for surface runoff, interflow and deep percolation. The Subsurface Store describes the unsaturated soil moisture balance, extraction of percolated water by vegetation and groundwater recharge. The Groundwater Store controls the baseflow to stream (if any and the groundwater contribution to the stream zone saturated areas. The daily model was developed following a downward approach by analysing data from Ernies (control and Lemon (53% cleared catchments in Western Australia and elaborating a monthly model. The daily model performed very well in simulating daily flow generation processes for both catchments. Most of the model parameters were incorporated a priori from catchment attributes such as surface slope, soil depth, porosity, stream length and initial groundwater depth, and some were calibrated by matching the observed and predicted hydrographs. The predicted groundwater depth, and streamflow volumes across all time steps from daily to monthly to annual were in close agreement with observations for both catchments.

  7. The 'Technology - Activities of Daily Living Questionnaire': a version with a technology-related subscale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Neira, Carlos; López, Oscar L.; Riveros, Rodrigo; Nuñez-Huasaf, Javier; Flores, Patricia; Slachevsky, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    Background Information and communication technology (ICT) has become an increasingly important part of daily life. The ability to use technology is becoming essential for autonomous functioning in society. Current functional scales for patients with cognitive impairment do not evaluate the use of technology. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a new version of the Activities of Daily Living Questionnaire (ADLQ) that incorporates an ICT subscale. Method A new technology-based subscale was incorporated into the Spanish Version of the ADLQ (SV-ADLQ), entitled The Technology Version of the ADLQ (T-ADLQ). The T-ADLQ was administered to 63 caregivers of dementia patients, 21 proxies of mild cognitive impairment patients and 44 proxies of normal elderly subjects (mean age of the sample ± SD: 73.5 ± 8.30). We analysed the convergent validity, internal consistency, reliability cut-off point, sensitivity and specificity of the T-ADLQ. The results of the T-ADLQ were compared to the SV-ADLQ. Results The T-ADLQ showed significant correlations with the Mini-mental Test (MMSE), the Frontal Assesment Battery (FAB) as well as other measures of functional impairment and dementia severity (MMSE: r = −0.70; FAB: r = −0.65; Functional Assessment Questionnaire: r = 0.77; Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale: r = −0.75; Clinical Dementia Rating Scale: r = 0.72; p<0.001). The T-ADLQ showed a good reliability with a relatively high Cronbach’s alpha coefficient (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.861). When considering a functional impairment cut-off point greater than 29.25%, the sensitivity and specificity of the T-ADLQ were 82% and 90%, respectively. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.937 for the T-ADLQ and 0.932 for the original version of the test. Conclusions The T-ADLQ revealed adequate indicators of validity and reliability for the functional assessment of activities of daily living in dementia patients. However, the inclusion of technology items in

  8. Episode-specific drinking-to-cope motivation, daily mood, and fatigue-related symptoms among college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armeli, Stephen; O'Hara, Ross E; Ehrenberg, Ethan; Sullivan, Tami P; Tennen, Howard

    2014-09-01

    The goal of the present study was to examine whether within-person, episode-specific changes in drinking-to-cope (DTC) motivation from the previous evening were associated with concurrent daily mood and fatigue-related symptoms among college student drinkers (N = 1,421; 54% female). We conducted an Internet-based daily diary study in which students reported over 30 days on their previous night's drinking level and motivation and their current mood (i.e., sadness, anxiety, anger/hostility, and positive mood) and fatigue-related symptoms. Hypotheses were tested using hierarchical linear models in which the current day's outcome was predicted by last night's levels of DTC motivation and drinking, controlling for drinking to enhance motivation, sex, current day's physical symptoms and drinking, and yesterday's level of the outcome. Subsequent models also predicted outcomes 2 days following the drinking event. Relative increases in previous night's DTC motivation were associated with higher levels of current day negative mood and fatigue-related symptoms and lower levels of positive mood. Also, the association between episode-specific DTC motivation and negative mood was stronger in the positive direction when individuals reported higher levels of nonsocial drinking from the previous night. Last, episode-specific DTC showed similar associations with sadness and anger/hostility 2 days after the drinking event. The results are generally consistent with the posited attention allocation and ego-depletion mechanisms. Findings suggest that the deleterious effects of repeated episodes of DTC, over time, could help to explain the increased likelihood of alcohol-related problems seen in prior studies.

  9. Objectively measured daily physical activity related to cardiac size in young children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, M; Thorsson, O; Karlsson, M K;

    2009-01-01

    ), aged 8-11 years, from a population-based cohort. Left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (LVDD) and left atrial end-systolic diameter (LA) were measured with echocardiography and indexed for body surface area (BSA). Physical activity was assessed by accelerometry, and the duration of vigorous physical...... activity per day (VPA) was calculated. Acceptable accelerometer and echocardiography measurements were obtained in 228 children (boys=127, girls=101). Univariate correlations between VPA and LVDD were indexed for BSA in boys (r=0.27, P... that independent factors for LVDD, indexed for BSA for boys, were age and VPA. LA indexed for BSA was not related to physical activity variables in either gender. No clear relationship exists between cardiac size and daily physical activity in children aged 8-11 years. This suggests that significant cardiac...

  10. Including A-Priori Assessment of Actual Evapotranspiration for Green Roof Daily Scale Hydrological Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirka Mobilia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, there has been a widespread implementation of Green Infrastructures worldwide. Among these, green roofs appear to be particularly flexible sustainable drainage facilities. To predict their effectiveness for planning purposes, a tool is required that provides information as a function of local meteorological variables. Thus, a relatively simple daily scale, one-dimensional water balance approach has been proposed. The crucial evapotranspiration process, usually considered as a water balance dependent variable, is replaced here by empirical relationships providing an a-priori assessment of soil water losses through actual evapotranspiration. The modelling scheme, which under some simplification can be used without a calibration process, has been applied to experimental runoff data monitored at a green roof located near Bernkastel (Germany, between April 2005 and December 2006. Two different empirical relationships have been used to model actual evapotranspiration, considering a water availability limited and an energy limited scheme. Model errors quantification, ranging from 2% to 40% on the long-term scale and from 1% to 36% at the event scale, appear strongly related to the particularly considered relationship.

  11. Daily Suction Provided by External Volume Expansion Inducing Regeneration of Grafted Fat in a Murine Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Yuan; Liao, Yunjun; Lu, Feng; Gao, Jianhua

    2017-02-01

    Fat grafting has variable and sometimes poor outcomes, and therefore new methods are needed. Multiple studies have demonstrated the excellent performance of external volume expansion and focused only on preexpansion with emphasis on the recipient. Two mouse models (a suction model and a fat-exchange transplantation model) were established to investigate changes in the origins and biological behaviors of regeneration-related cells in grafted fat under daily suction provided by external volume expansion. Blood supply increased from new host-derived capillaries or macrophage infiltration under suction. CD34-positive cells showed increased migration from the host into the grafts under suction. At week 12, nearly half of the mature adipocytes regenerated in the grafts in the suction group were derived from the host. Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ expression of the suction group was significantly higher than that of controls at weeks 2 and 4 during adipogenesis. The normalized sample weight of the grafted fat was significantly greater than that of controls at 1 (0.081 ± 0.001 versus 0.072 ± 0.005; p suction provided by external volume expansion favors the regeneration of grafted fat and improves retention by promoting the migration of regeneration-related cells and the differentiation of adipocytes. Thus, more mature fat tissue with a well-organized structure was formed under suction.

  12. Observation and modeling of thermoelastic strain in Southern California Integrated GPS Network daily position time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prawirodirdjo, Linette; Ben-Zion, Yehuda; Bock, Yehuda

    2006-02-01

    We suggest that strain in the elastic part of the Earth's crust induced by surface temperature variations is a significant contributor to the seasonal variations observed in the spatially filtered daily position time series of Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN) stations. We compute the predicted thermoelastic strain from the observed local atmospheric temperature record assuming an elastically decoupled layer over a uniform elastic half-space and compare the seasonal variations in thermoelastic strain to the horizontal GPS position time series. We consider three regions (Palmdale, 29 Palms, and Idyllwild), each with one temperature station and three to six GPS stations. The temperature time series is used to compute thermoelastic strain at each station on the basis of its relative location in the temperature field. For each region we assume a wavelength for the temperature field that is related to the local topography. The depth of the decoupled layer is inferred from the phase delay between the temperature record and the GPS time series. The relative amplitude of strain variation at each GPS station, calculated to be on the order of 0.1 μstrain, is related to the relative location of that station in the temperature field. The goodness of fit between model and data is evaluated from the relative amplitudes of the seasonal signals, as well as the appropriateness of the chosen temperature field wavelength and decoupled layer depth. The analysis shows a good fit between the predicted strains and the GPS time series. This suggests that the model captures the key first-order ingredients that determine the thermoelastic strain in a given area. The results can be used to improve the signal/noise ratio in GPS data.

  13. Nurses' daily life: gender relations from the time spent in hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Audrey Vidal Pereira

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to analyze the everyday life of nurses through the sexual work division as well as through interdependence relations and the time in hospital.Method: quanti-qualitative study, based on the Time Use Survey and in Norbert Elias's Configuration Theory of Interdependencies. Daily shifts distribution record, directed by 42 participants - with self-confrontation - by interviews which drew dialogues on subjective aspects of the everyday experiences related to use of time, based on a job at a university hospital. The theoretical intake that founded data analysis was based on concepts of conflicts of interest, power struggles, sexual work division and polychronic-monochronic concepts - whether the work environment demands multitasking nurses or not.Results: time records allowed to observe differences between the groups studied, useful to identify conflicts, tensions, power struggles and gender inequalities in interviewees' everyday affairs that do not only affect physical and mental health, but also their way of life.Conclusion: the analytical path pointed out the need for public policies that promote equity in gender relations, keeping at sight the exercise of plural discourses and tolerant stances capable to respect differences between individual and collective time.

  14. Nurses' daily life: gender relations from the time spent in hospital1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Audrey Vidal

    2015-01-01

    Objective: to analyze the everyday life of nurses through the sexual work division as well as through interdependence relations and the time in hospital. Method: quanti-qualitative study, based on the Time Use Survey and in Norbert Elias's Configuration Theory of Interdependencies. Daily shifts distribution record, directed by 42 participants - with self-confrontation - by interviews which drew dialogues on subjective aspects of the everyday experiences related to use of time, based on a job at a university hospital. The theoretical intake that founded data analysis was based on concepts of conflicts of interest, power struggles, sexual work division and polychronic-monochronic concepts - whether the work environment demands multitasking nurses or not. Results: time records allowed to observe differences between the groups studied, useful to identify conflicts, tensions, power struggles and gender inequalities in interviewees' everyday affairs that do not only affect physical and mental health, but also their way of life. Conclusion: the analytical path pointed out the need for public policies that promote equity in gender relations, keeping at sight the exercise of plural discourses and tolerant stances capable to respect differences between individual and collective time. PMID:26487146

  15. Daily movements of female white-tailed deer relative to parturition and breeding.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gino J. D' Angelo; Christopher E. Comer; John C. Kilgo; Cory D. Drennan; David A. Osborn; Karl V. Miller

    2005-10-01

    Abstract: To assess how white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) herd demographics influence reproductive behaviors, we examined 24-h diel movements of female whitetailed deer relative to parturition and breeding in a low-density population with a near even sex ratio at the Savannah River Site (SRS), South Carolina. We conducted a series of intensive, 24-h radio-tracking periods of 13 females during spring and fall 2002. We compared daily range (ha), rate of travel (m/h), and distance between extreme daily locations (m), among the periods of pre-parturition and post-parturition and pre-, peak-, and post-rut. From pre-parturition to post-parturition, we observed decreases in diel range size (–38.2%), distance between extreme diel locations (–17.0%), and diel rate of travel (–18.2%). Diel range size, distance between extreme diel locations, and diel rate of travel during the pre-rut and rut exceeded those observed during post-rut. We further identified substantial increases in mobility during 12 24-h diel periods for eight females during our fall monitoring. Our data suggest that female white-tailed deer reduce mobility post-fawning following exaggerated movements during pre-parturition. Furthermore, despite a near equal sex ratio, estrous does may be required to actively seek potential mates due to low population density.

  16. Examining the Effects of Video Modeling and Prompts to Teach Activities of Daily Living Skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldi, Catarina; Crigler, Alexandra; Kates-McElrath, Kelly; Long, Brian; Smith, Hillary; Rehak, Kim; Wilkinson, Lisa

    2016-12-01

    Video modeling has been shown to be effective in teaching a number of skills to learners diagnosed with autism spectrum disorders (ASD). In this study, we taught two young men diagnosed with ASD three different activities of daily living skills (ADLS) using point-of-view video modeling. Results indicated that both participants met criterion for all ADLS. Participants did not maintain mastery criterion at a 1-month follow-up, but did score above baseline at maintenance with and without video modeling. • Point-of-view video models may be an effective intervention to teach daily living skills. • Video modeling with handheld portable devices (Apple iPod or iPad) can be just as effective as video modeling with stationary viewing devices (television or computer). • The use of handheld portable devices (Apple iPod and iPad) makes video modeling accessible and possible in a wide variety of environments.

  17. Box –Jenkins Models For Forecasting The Daily Degrees Of Temperature In Sulaimani City.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samira Muhammad Salh

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The Auto-regressive model in the time series is regarded one of the statistical articles which is more used because it gives us a simple method to limit the relation between variables time series. More over it is one of Box –Jenkins models to limit the time series in the forecasting the value of phenomenon in the future so that study aims for the practical analysis studying for the auto-regressive models in the time series, through one of Box –Jenkins models for forecasting the daily degrees of temperature in Sulaimani city for the year (2012- Sept.2013 and then for building a sample in the way of special data in the degrees of temperature and its using in the calculating the future forecasting . the style which is used is the descriptive and analyzing by the help of data that is dealt with statistically and which is collected from the official resources To reach his mentioned aim , the discussion of the following items has been done by the theoretical part which includes the idea of time series and its quality and the autocorrelation and Box –Jenkins and then the practical part which includes the statistical analysis for the data and the discussion of the theoretical part, so they reached to a lot of conclusions as it had come in the practical study for building autoregressive models of time series as the mode was very suitable is the auto-regressive model and model moving average by the degree (1,1,1.

  18. Daily fluctuations in teachers' well-being: a diary study using the Job Demands-Resources model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simbula, Silvia

    2010-10-01

    The study tests the dynamic nature of the Job Demands-Resources model with regard to both motivational and health impairment processes. It does so by examining whether daily fluctuations in co-workers' support (i.e., a typical job resource) and daily fluctuations in work/family conflict (i.e., a typical job demand) predict day-levels of job satisfaction and mental health through work engagement and exhaustion, respectively. A total of 61 schoolteachers completed a general questionnaire and a daily survey over a period of five consecutive work days. Multilevel analyses provided evidence for both the above processes. Consistently with the hypotheses, our results showed that day-level work engagement mediated the impact of day-level co-workers' support on day-level job satisfaction and day-level mental health, after general levels of work engagement and outcome variables had been controlled for. Moreover, day-level exhaustion mediated the relationship between day-level work/family conflict and day-level job satisfaction and day-level mental health after general levels of exhaustion and outcome variables had been controlled for. These findings provide new insights into the dynamic psychological processes that determine daily fluctuations in employee well-being. Such insights may be transformed into job redesign strategies and other interventions designed to enhance work-related psychological well-being on a daily level.

  19. Prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms related with activities of daily living and contributing factors in Korean adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Kyusik; Park, Jae-Hyun; Cheong, Hae-Kwan

    2013-01-01

    This study aims to investigate the prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms and factors related to daily activities in a representative Korean population. This study was based on the questions about musculoskeletal symptoms in the Korean General Social Survey 2010. The questionnaire about musculoskeletal symptoms was adopted from Korean Occupational Safety and Health Agency guide, and it includes general characteristics, characteristics of pain, work type, work intensity and a 12-item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12). We utilized the criteria of the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health to define the prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms. Demographic, behavioral and socioeconomic factors were analyzed using logistic regression. The prevalence of musculoskeletal symptoms was 38.3%. The prevalence was higher in females, the elderly, those without health insurance, and those with a low income, low education, and occupations with a heavy workload. The prevalence by body part was highest in the back, shoulder, and knee, in that order. The physical component summary and mental component summary of the SF-12 decreased with increasing musculoskeletal symptoms. Musculoskeletal symptoms are very common in the general population, and related to various socio-demographic factors. These results suggest that active prevention and management of musculoskeletal symptoms is needed at a national level.

  20. Protection against deprivation amblyopia depends on relative not absolute daily binocular exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Donald E; Sengpiel, Frank; Hamilton, David C; Schwarzkopf, D Samuel; Kennie, Jan

    2011-06-16

    Short daily periods of binocular exposure (BE) can offset longer single daily episodes of monocular exposure (ME) to prevent the development of deprivation amblyopia. To determine whether the outcome depended upon an absolute daily amount of BE or its proportion of the daily visual exposure, daily mixed visual input of 3 different durations (3.5, 7, or 12 h) was imposed on 3 cohorts of kittens. Measurements of the visual acuity of the deprived eye at the end of mixed daily visual input revealed that the acuity of the deprived eye developed to normal values so long as the proportion of the total exposure that was binocular was 30% or more. By contrast, the development of functional ocular dominance domains in V1 revealed by optical imaging suggests that normal domains emerge with a fixed amount of daily binocular exposure. The latter result is consistent with the effects of any daily period of ME, or BE, or both, effectively saturating with a small dose so that the effects of ME of any length can be offset by a short period of BE. The different result for vision may reflect neural events at higher and/or multiple levels in the visual pathway.

  1. The daily commute from work to home: Examining employees' experiences in relation to their recovery status

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hooff, M.L.M. van

    2015-01-01

    Sufficient recovery after daily effort expenditure at work is important to protect employee health and well-being. However, the role of commuting in the daily effort-recovery process is still not very well understood. The present study aimed to advance insight in this respect by examining if

  2. Body fat related to daily physical activity and insulin concentrations in non-diabetic children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, Magnus; Thorsson, Ola; Karlsson, Magnus K

    2007-01-01

    This study explored the associations between body fat versus daily physical activity and insulin concentrations in non-diabetic young children in a cross-sectional study of 172 children (93 boys and 79 girls) aged 8-11 years. Blood samples were analysed for serum insulin and daily physical activity...

  3. Comparison of statistical models to estimate daily milk yield in single milking testing schemes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marija Klopcˇic

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Different statistical models were compared to estimate daily milk yield from morning or evening milking test results. The experiment was conducted on 14 family farms with 325 recorded cows. The amount of explained variance was higher for models including the effects of partial milk yield, the interval between successive milking, the interaction between partial milk yield and the milking interval and the farm (R2 = 0.976 for AM, R2 = 0.956 for PM than for models including partial milk yield effect only (R2 = 0.957 for AM, R2 = 0.937 for PM. Estimates of daily milk yield from linear models were more accurate than those obtained by doubling single milking weights. The results show that more complex model gives the best fit to the data. Differences between models according to determination and correlation coefficient were minor. Further investigations on larger sets of data are needed to draw more general conclusion.

  4. Method for modelling space conditioning aggregated daily load curves: Application to a university building

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Escriva-Escriva, Guillermo; Alvarez-Bel, Carlos; Valencia-Salazar, Ivan [Institute for Energy Engineering, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, Camino de Vera, s/n, edificio 8E, escalera F, 2a planta, 46022 Valencia (Spain)

    2010-08-15

    Physically based load modelling methodologies have been widely developed and used because of their ability to predict the energy load dynamic response. Most building energy programs predict energy consumption and energy system performance through a whole building energy simulation as well as a global analysis of building thermal processes and heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) system performance. A different approach is presented in this paper by introducing a new method for modelling the daily load profile of a group of air-conditioning systems. This method is based on the simulation of a single HVAC system, a set of end-use electrical measurements, and a detailed walk-through and energy audit. The basic methodology allows deducing the aggregated load of a group of space conditioning devices by the addition of the daily simulation of each individual physical system. As an application, the space conditioning daily demand curve of a university building is studied and results are presented. (author)

  5. Work-related boredom and depressed mood from a daily perspective: The moderating roles of work centrality and need satisfaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hooff, M.L.M. van; Hooft, E.A.J. van

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to advance insight into inter- and intrapersonal processes that may affect the associations between work-related boredom and employee well-being. We employed a daily perspective to examine (1) the relations between work-related boredom and depressed mood at the end of the workday

  6. Work-related boredom and depressed mood from a daily perspective: The moderating roles of work centrality and need satisfaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hooff, M.L.M. van; Hooft, E.A.J. van

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to advance insight into inter- and intrapersonal processes that may affect the associations between work-related boredom and employee well-being. We employed a daily perspective to examine (1) the relations between work-related boredom and depressed mood at the end of the workday an

  7. Testing the daily PRISM air temperature model on semiarid mountain slopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strachan, Scotty; Daly, Christopher

    2017-06-01

    Studies in mountainous terrain related to ecology and hydrology often use interpolated climate products because of a lack of local observations. One data set frequently used to develop plot-to-watershed-scale climatologies is PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model) temperature. Benefits of this approach include geographically weighted station observations and topographic positioning modifiers, which become important factors for predicting temperature in complex topography. Because of the paucity of long-term climate records in mountain environments, validation of PRISM algorithms across diverse regions remains challenging, with end users instead relying on atmospheric relationships derived in sometimes distant geographic settings. Presented here are results from testing observations of daily temperature maximum (TMAX) and minimum (TMIN) on 16 sites in the Walker Basin, California-Nevada, located on open woodland slopes ranging from 1967 to 3111 m in elevation. Individual site mean absolute error varied from 1.1 to 3.7°C with better performance observed during summertime as opposed to winter. We observed a consistent cool bias in TMIN for all seasons across all sites, with cool bias in TMAX varying with season. Model error for TMIN was associated with elevation, whereas model error for TMAX was associated with topographic radiative indices (solar exposure and heat loading). These results demonstrate that temperature conditions across mountain woodland slopes are more heterogeneous than interpolated models (such as PRISM) predict, that drivers of these differences are complex and localized in nature, and that scientific application of atmospheric/climate models in mountains requires additional attention to model assumptions and source data.

  8. Modelling dense relational data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herlau, Tue; Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard;

    2012-01-01

    Relational modelling classically consider sparse and discrete data. Measures of influence computed pairwise between temporal sources naturally give rise to dense continuous-valued matrices, for instance p-values from Granger causality. Due to asymmetry or lack of positive definiteness they are no......Relational modelling classically consider sparse and discrete data. Measures of influence computed pairwise between temporal sources naturally give rise to dense continuous-valued matrices, for instance p-values from Granger causality. Due to asymmetry or lack of positive definiteness...... they are not naturally suited for kernel K-means. We propose a generative Bayesian model for dense matrices which generalize kernel K-means to consider off-diagonal interactions in matrices of interactions, and demonstrate its ability to detect structure on both artificial data and two real data sets....

  9. Operating styles, working time and daily driving distance in relation to a taxi driver's speeding offenses in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Chien-Ming

    2013-03-01

    This study explored the determinant factors of taxi drivers' speeding violations in Taiwan. Data were gathered from a nation wide survey and included 6923 professional taxi drivers in 2006. The results indicated that 96.6% were males and 92.5% had less than a college level education. Daily working hours were from 2.5 h to 15 h with a mean of 10.12 h. The data also indicated that taxi drivers worked approximately 27.35 days and only took 2.65 days rest per month. Of the observed taxi drivers, 25.6% reported at least one speeding violation in a one-year period. The results of a generalized linear model (GLM) revealed that the determinant factors associating with a taxi driver's speeding violation were not related to gender or educational level. However, age, job experience, operating styles, kilometers driven daily, driving late at night, and monthly off duty days were significantly associated with committing the speeding violations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Comparing flow duration curve and rainfall-runoff modelling for predicting daily runoff in ungauged catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongqiang; Vaze, Jai; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Li, Ming

    2015-06-01

    Predicting daily runoff time series in ungauged catchments is both important and challenging. For the last few decades, the rainfall-runoff (RR) modelling approach has been the method of choice. There have been very few studies reported in literature which attempt to use flow duration curve (FDC) to predict daily runoff time series. This study comprehensively compares the two approaches using an extensive dataset (228 catchments) for a large region of south-eastern Australia and provides guidelines for choosing the suitable method. For each approach we used the nearest neighbour method and two weightings - a 5-donor simple mathematical average (SA) and a 5-donor inverse-distance weighting (5-IDW) - to predict daily runoff time series. The results show that 5-IDW was noticeably better than a single donor to predict daily runoff time series, especially for the FDC approach. The RR modelling approach calibrated against daily runoff outperformed the FDC approach for predicting high flows. The FDC approach was better at predicting medium to low flows in traditional calibration against the Nash-Sutcliffe-Efficiency or Root Mean Square Error, but when calibrated against a low flow objective function, both the FDC and rainfall-runoff models performed equally well in simulating the low flows. These results indicate that both methods can be further improved to simulate daily hydrographs describing the range of flow metrics in ungauged catchments. Further studies should be carried out for improving the accuracy of predicted FDC in ungauged catchments, including improving the FDC model structure and parameter fitting.

  11. Intermittent reservoir daily-inflow prediction using lumped and distributed data multi-linear regression models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R B Magar; V Jothiprakash

    2011-12-01

    In this study, multi-linear regression (MLR) approach is used to construct intermittent reservoir daily inflow forecasting system. To illustrate the applicability and effect of using lumped and distributed input data in MLR approach, Koyna river watershed in Maharashtra, India is chosen as a case study. The results are also compared with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. MLR attempts to model the relationship between two or more independent variables over a dependent variable by fitting a linear regression equation. The main aim of the present study is to see the consequences of development and applicability of simple models, when sufficient data length is available. Out of 47 years of daily historical rainfall and reservoir inflow data, 33 years of data is used for building the model and 14 years of data is used for validating the model. Based on the observed daily rainfall and reservoir inflow, various types of time-series, cause-effect and combined models are developed using lumped and distributed input data. Model performance was evaluated using various performance criteria and it was found that as in the present case, of well correlated input data, both lumped and distributed MLR models perform equally well. For the present case study considered, both MLR and ARIMA models performed equally sound due to availability of large dataset.

  12. Time series modeling of daily abandoned calls in a call centre ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Time series modeling of daily abandoned calls in a call centre. ... were shown to be both parsimonious and adequate using the P-P plots, Q-Q plots and residual analysis. ... The data for application were got from a GSM telephone provider.

  13. Continuous-Time Models, Realized Volatilities, and Testable Distributional Implications for Daily Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben G.; Bollerslev, Tim; Frederiksen, Per Houmann

    We provide an empirical framework for assessing the distributional properties of daily specu- lative returns within the context of the continuous-time modeling paradigm traditionally used in asset pricing finance. Our approach builds directly on recently developed realized variation measures and ...

  14. Loneliness in the daily lives of young adults: Testing a socio-cognitive model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roekel, G.H. van; Ha, P.T.; Scholte, R.H.J.; Engels, R.C.M.E.; Verhagen, M.

    2016-01-01

    A socio-cognitive model of loneliness states that lonely people are characterized by two characteristics, hypersensitivity to social threat and hyposensitivity to social reward. However, these characteristics have not yet been examined in the daily lives of young adults. Therefore, the main aim of t

  15. Loneliness in the Daily Lives of Young Adults : Testing a Socio-cognitive Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Roekel, Eeske; Ha, Thao; Scholte, Ron H. J.; Engels, Rutger C. M. E.; Verhagen, Maaike

    2016-01-01

    A socio-cognitive model of loneliness states that lonely people are characterized by two characteristics, hypersensitivity to social threat and hyposensitivity to social reward. However, these characteristics have not yet been examined in the daily lives of young adults. Therefore, the main aim of t

  16. Coupled daily streamflow and water temperature modelling in large river basins

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.T.H.; Yearsley, J.R.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Kabat, P.

    2012-01-01

    Realistic estimates of daily streamflow and water temperature are required for effective management of water resources (e.g. for electricity and drinking water production) and freshwater ecosystems. Although hydrological and process-based water temperature modelling approaches have been successfully

  17. Loneliness in the daily lives of young adults : Testing a socio-cognitive model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Roekel, E.; Ha, Thao; Scholte, Ron H. J.; Engels, Rutger C. M. E.; Verhagen, Maaike

    2016-01-01

    A socio-cognitive model of loneliness states that lonely people are characterized by two characteristics, hypersensitivity to social threat and hyposensitivity to social reward. However, these characteristics have not yet been examined in the daily lives of young adults. Therefore, the main aim of t

  18. Nutritional status in university students: its relation to the number of daily intakes and macronutrients consumption

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pi, Romina Antonella; Vidal, Paula Daniela; Brassesco, Bárbara Romina; Viola, Lorena; Aballay, Laura Rosana

    2015-01-01

    .... to establish the relationship between the number of daily dietary intakes and nutritional status in male students aged 23 to 33 years of the National Technological University, in the city of Córdoba, in 2013...

  19. Daily physical activity and its contribution to the health-related quality of life of ambulatory individuals with chronic stroke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rand Debbie

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Participation in daily physical activity (PA post-stroke has not previously been investigated as a possible explanatory variable of health-related quality of life (HRQL. The aims were 1 to determine the contribution of daily PA to the HRQL of individuals with chronic stroke and 2 to assess the relationship between the functional ability of these individuals to the amount of daily PA. Methods The amount of daily PA of forty adults with chronic stroke (mean age 66.5 ± 9.6 years was monitored using two measures. Accelerometers (Actical were worn on the hip for three consecutive days in conjunction with a self-report questionnaire [the PA Scale for Individuals with Physical Disabilities (PASIPD]. The daily physical activity was measured as the mean total accelerometer activity counts/day and the PASIPD scores as the metabolic equivalent (MET hr/day. HRQL was assessed by the Physical and Mental composite scores of the Medical Outcomes Study Short-Form 36 (SF-36 in addition to the functional ability of the participants. Correlation and regression analyses were performed. Results After controlling for the severity of the motor impairment, the amount of daily PA, as assessed by the PASIPD and accelerometers, was found to independently contribute to 10-12% of the variance of the Physical Composite Score of the SF-36. No significant relationship was found between PA and the Mental Composite Score of the SF-36.The functional ability of the participants was found to be correlated to the amount of daily PA (r = 0.33 - 0.67, p Conclusion The results suggest that daily PA is associated with better HRQL (as assessed by the Physical composite score of the SF-36 for people living with stroke. Daily PA should be encouraged to potentially increase HRQL. Accelerometers in conjunction with a self-report questionnaire may provide important measures of PA which can be monitored and modified, and potentially influence HRQL.

  20. Caffeine Bitterness is Related to Daily Caffeine Intake and Bitter Receptor mRNA Abundance in Human Taste Tissue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipchock, Sarah V; Spielman, Andrew I; Mennella, Julie A; Mansfield, Corrine J; Hwang, Liang-Dar; Douglas, Jennifer E; Reed, Danielle R

    2017-01-01

    We investigated whether the abundance of bitter receptor mRNA expression from human taste papillae is related to an individual's perceptual ratings of bitter intensity and habitual intake of bitter drinks. Ratings of the bitterness of caffeine and quinine and three other bitter stimuli (urea, propylthiouracil, and denatonium benzoate) were compared with relative taste papilla mRNA abundance of bitter receptors that respond to the corresponding bitter stimuli in cell-based assays ( TAS2R4, TAS2R10, TAS2R38, TAS2R43, and TAS2R46). We calculated caffeine and quinine intake from a food frequency questionnaire. The bitterness of caffeine was related to the abundance of the combined mRNA expression of these known receptors, r = 0.47, p = .05, and self-reported daily caffeine intake, t(18) = 2.78, p = .012. The results of linear modeling indicated that 47% of the variance among subjects in the rating of caffeine bitterness was accounted for by these two factors (habitual caffeine intake and taste receptor mRNA abundance). We observed no such relationships for quinine but consumption of its primary dietary form (tonic water) was uncommon. Overall, diet and TAS2R gene expression in taste papillae are related to individual differences in caffeine perception.

  1. Achieving Consistent Multiple Daily Low-Dose Bacillus anthracis Spore Inhalation Exposures in the Rabbit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-13

    daily low-dose Bacillus anthracis spore inhalation exposures in the rabbit model Roy E. Barnewall 1, Jason E. Comer 1, Brian D. Miller 1, BradfordW...multiple exposure days. Keywords: Bacillus anthracis , inhalation exposures, low-dose, subchronic exposures, spores, anthrax, aerosol system INTRODUCTION... Bacillus Anthracis Spore Inhalation Exposures In The Rabbit Model 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d

  2. A No-Arbitrage Fractional Cointegration Model for Futures and Spot Daily Ranges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rossi, Eduardo; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

    2013-01-01

    The no-arbitrage relation between futures and spot prices implies an analogous relation between futures and spot daily ranges. The long-memory features of the range-based volatility estimators are analyzed, and fractional cointegration is tested in a semi-parametric framework. In particular, the no...... highlight the importance of incorporating the long-run equilibrium in volatilities to obtain better forecasts, given the information content in the volatility of futures prices....

  3. The relation between price and daily consumption of cigarettes and bidis: Findings from the Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Wave 1 Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P S Pawar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: In India, 14% of the population use smoked tobacco products. Increasing prices of these products is one of the measures to curb their consumption. Aims: This study analyzes "unit price" and "daily consumption" of cigarettes and bidis and investigates their relation with each other. Settings And Design: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in four states of India (Bihar, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra as a part of the International Tobacco Control Policy (TCP Evaluation Project (the TCP India Project during 2010-2011. Methods: Information was collected from adult (aged ≥15 daily exclusive smokers of cigarette/bidi regarding (a last purchase (purchase in pack/loose, brand and price and (b daily consumption. Average unit price and daily consumption was calculated for different brands and states. Regression model was used to assess the impact of price on daily consumption. Results: Bidis were much less expensive (₹0.39 than cigarettes (₹3.1. The daily consumption was higher (14 among bidi smokers than cigarette smokers (8. The prices and daily consumption of bidis (₹0.33-0.43; 12-15 and cigarettes (₹2.9-3.6; 5-9 varied across the four states. The unit prices of bidis and cigarettes did not influence their daily consumption. Smokers purchasing bidis in packs paid substantially less per unit and purchase of bidis and cigarettes in packs influenced their consumption positively. Conclusions: Cigarettes although more expensive than bidis, seem very cheap if compared internationally. Hence, prices of both cigarettes and bidis do not influence their consumption.

  4. A cyclic time-dependent Markov process to model daily patterns in wind turbine power production

    CERN Document Server

    Scholz, Teresa; Estanqueiro, Ana

    2013-01-01

    Wind energy is becoming a top contributor to the renewable energy mix, which raises potential reliability issues for the grid due to the fluctuating nature of its source. To achieve adequate reserve commitment and to promote market participation, it is necessary to provide models that can capture daily patterns in wind power production. This paper presents a cyclic inhomogeneous Markov process, which is based on a three-dimensional state-space (wind power, speed and direction). Each time-dependent transition probability is expressed as a Bernstein polynomial. The model parameters are estimated by solving a constrained optimization problem: The objective function combines two maximum likelihood estimators, one to ensure that the Markov process long-term behavior reproduces the data accurately and another to capture daily fluctuations. A convex formulation for the overall optimization problem is presented and its applicability demonstrated through the analysis of a case-study. The proposed model is capable of r...

  5. An Improved, Downscaled, Fine Model for Simulation of Daily Weather States

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIANG Zhihong; DING Yuguo; ZHENG Chunyu; CHEN Weilin

    2011-01-01

    In this study,changes in daily weather states were treated as a complex Markov chain process,based on a continuous-time watershed model (soil water assessment tool,SWAT) developed by the Agricultural Research Service at the U.S.Department of Agriculture (USDA-ARS).A finer classification using total cloud amount for dry states was adopted,and dry days were classified into three states:clear,cloudy,and overcast (rain free). Multistate transition models for dry- and wet-day series were constructed to comprehensively downscale the simulation of regional daily climatic states.The results show that the finer,improved,downscaled model overcame the oversimplified treatment of a two-weather state model and is free of the shortcomings of a multistate model that neglects finer classification of dry days (i.e.,finer classification was applied only to wet days).As a result,overall simulation of weather states based on the SWAT greatly improved,and the improvement in simulating daily temperature and radiation was especially significant.

  6. Daily sesame oil supplement attenuates joint pain by inhibiting muscular oxidative stress in osteoarthritis rat model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Dur-Zong; Chu, Pei-Yi; Jou, I-Ming

    2016-03-01

    Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common form of arthritis, affecting approximately 15% of the population. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of sesame oil in controlling OA pain in rats. Rat joint pain was induced by medial meniscal transection in Sprague-Dawley rats and assessed by using hindlimb weight distribution method. Muscular oxidative stress was assessed by determining lipid peroxidation, reactive oxygen species and circulating antioxidants. Sesame oil significantly decreased joint pain compared with positive control group in a dose-dependent manner. Sesame oil decreased lipid peroxidation in muscle but not in serum. Further, sesame oil significantly decreased muscular superoxide anion and peroxynitrite generations but increased muscular glutathione and glutathione peroxidase levels. Further, sesame oil significantly increased nuclear factor erythroid-2-related factor (Nrf2) expression compared with positive control group. We concluded that daily sesame oil supplement may attenuate early joint pain by inhibiting Nrf2-associated muscular oxidative stress in OA rat model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. The benefits of daily data and scale up issues in hydrologic models-SWAT and CRAFT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yumei; Quinn, Paul; Liang, Qiuhua; Adams, Russell

    2017-04-01

    When modelling the flow pathways for nutrient transport, the lack of good data and limitation of data resolution become the key cause of low quality output in various hydrologic models. The scale of catchment being studied would present the main issues of the sensitivity and uncertainty expected on the hydrologic modelling. Equally, the time step chosen is also important to nutrient dynamics. This study aims to evaluate the benefits of using both monthly and daily data in hydrologic models, and to address the issues of catchment scale when using the two hydrologic models, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and Catchment Runoff Attenuation Flux Tool (CRAFT), by comparing the difference between SWAT and CRAFT in flow pathways and sediment transport. The models are different in terms of complexity, therefore the poster will discuss the strengths and weakness of the models. Also we can show the problems of calibration and how the models can be used to support catchment modelling.

  8. Daily physical activity related to aerobic fitness and body fat in an urban sample of children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, M; Thorsson, O; Karlsson, M K;

    2008-01-01

    -energy x-ray absorptiometry. TBF was calculated as percentage of total body mass (BF%). Body fat distribution was calculated as AFM/TBF. Aerobic fitness was measured by indirect calorimetry during a maximal cycle ergometer exercise test. Daily physical activity was assessed by accelerometers for 4 days......This study evaluates associations between objectively measured daily physical activity vs aerobic fitness and body fat in children aged 8-11 years. A cross-sectional study of 225 children aged 7.9-11.1 years was performed. Abdominal fat mass (AFM) and total body fat (TBF) were quantified by dual...... and daily accumulation of moderate-to-vigorous and vigorous activity was calculated. Significant relationships (Pfitness (r=0.38), whereas moderate-to-vigorous activity displayed weaker relationships...

  9. An adaptive wavelet-network model for forecasting daily total solar-radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mellit, A. [University Centre of Medea (CUYFM), Institute of Engineering Sciences, Department of Electronics, Medea (Algeria). Department of Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering; Benghanem, M. [University of Sciences Technology Houari Boumediene (USTHB), Algiers (Algeria). Faculty of Electrical Engineering; Kalogirou, S.A. [Higher Technical Institute, Nicosia (Cyprus). Department of Mechanical Engineering

    2006-07-15

    The combination of wavelet theory and neural networks has lead to the development of wavelet networks. Wavelet-networks are feed-forward networks using wavelets as activation functions. Wavelet-networks have been used successfully in various engineering applications such as classification, identification and control problems. In this paper, the use of adaptive wavelet-network architecture in finding a suitable forecasting model for predicting the daily total solar-radiation is investigated. Total solar-radiation is considered as the most important parameter in the performance prediction of renewable energy systems, particularly in sizing photovoltaic (PV) power systems. For this purpose, daily total solar-radiation data have been recorded during the period extending from 1981 to 2001, by a meteorological station in Algeria. The wavelet-network model has been trained by using either the 19 years of data or one year of the data. In both cases the total solar radiation data corresponding to year 2001 was used for testing the model. The network was trained to accept and handle a number of unusual cases. Results indicate that the model predicts daily total solar-radiation values with a good accuracy of approximately 97% and the mean absolute percentage error is not more than 6%. In addition, the performance of the model was compared with different neural network structures and classical models. Training algorithms for wavelet-networks require smaller numbers of iterations when compared with other neural networks. The model can be used to fill missing data in weather databases. Additionally, the proposed model can be generalized and used in different locations and for other weather data, such as sunshine duration and ambient temperature. Finally, an application using the model for sizing a PV-power system is presented in order to confirm the validity of this model. (author)

  10. Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan; Hanel, Martin

    2017-03-01

    The study compares characteristics of observed sub-daily precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic with those simulated by Hadley Centre Regional Model version 3 (HadRM3) and Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model version 4 (RCA4) regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalyses and examines diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation and their dependence on intensity and surface temperature. The observed warm-season (May-September) maxima of short-duration (1, 2 and 3 h) amounts show one diurnal peak in the afternoon, which is simulated reasonably well by RCA4, although the peak occurs too early in the model. HadRM3 provides an unrealistic diurnal cycle with a nighttime peak and an afternoon minimum coinciding with the observed maximum for all three ensemble members, which suggests that convection is not captured realistically. Distorted relationships of the diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation to daily maximum temperature in HadRM3 further evidence that underlying physical mechanisms are misrepresented in this RCM. Goodness-of-fit tests indicate that generalised extreme value distribution is an applicable model for both observed and RCM-simulated precipitation maxima. However, the RCMs are not able to capture the range of the shape parameter estimates of distributions of short-duration precipitation maxima realistically, leading to either too many (nearly all for HadRM3) or too few (RCA4) grid boxes in which the shape parameter corresponds to a heavy tail. This means that the distributions of maxima of sub-daily amounts are distorted in the RCM-simulated data and do not match reality well. Therefore, projected changes of sub-daily precipitation extremes in climate change scenarios based on RCMs not resolving convection need to be interpreted with caution.

  11. Modelling daily sediment yield from a meso-scale catchment, a case study in SW Poland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keesstra, S. D.; Schoorl, J.; Temme, A. J. A. M.

    2009-07-01

    For management purposes it is important to be able to assess the sediment yield of a catchment. however, at this moment models designed for estimating sediment yield are only capable to give either very detailed storm-based information or year averages. The storm-based models require input data that are not available for most catchment. However, models that estimate yearly averages, ignore a lot of other detailed information, like daily discharge and precipitation data. There are currently no models available that model sediment yield on the temporal scale of one day and the spatial scale of a meso-scale catchment, without making use of very detailed input data. To fill this scientific and management gap, landscape evolution model LAPSUS has been adapted to model sediment yield on a daily basis. This model has the water balance as a base. To allow calibration with the discharge at the outlet, a subsurface flow module has been added to the model. (Author) 12 refs.

  12. Daily physical activity in ankylosing spondylitis: validity and reliability of the IPAQ and SQUASH and the relation with clinical assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Introduction The aim of this study was to investigate the construct validity and test-retest reliability of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ; long form) and the Short QUestionnaire to Assess Health-enhancing physical activity (SQUASH) and to investigate the relation between daily physical activity and clinical assessments in patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Methods For validity, the self-report questionnaires IPAQ and SQUASH were compared with daily physical activity assessed with the ActiGraph accelerometer during 7 consecutive days in 63 AS outpatients. For reliability, the IPAQ and SQUASH were administered twice approximately 1 week apart in 52 AS outpatients. In all 115 patients, clinical assessments were performed at the outpatient clinic. Results IPAQ and SQUASH total scores correlated significantly with accelerometer outcome: ρ = 0.38 and r = 0.35, respectively. Intraclass correlation coefficients between first and second assessments of the IPAQ and SQUASH were 0.83 and 0.89, respectively. Bland-Altman analyses showed no systemic bias, but in particular for the IPAQ the 95% limits of agreement were wide. Daily physical activity assessed by accelerometer, IPAQ, and SQUASH correlated significantly with disease activity, physical activity, and quality of life. A relation with spinal mobility was found only for the accelerometer and SQUASH. The direction of these correlations indicates that higher daily physical activity is related to lower disease activity and better physical function, spinal mobility and quality of life. Conclusions Both physical activity questionnaires showed modest construct validity. The SQUASH showed good test-retest reliability, superior to the IPAQ. These results indicate that the SQUASH is more suitable than the IPAQ to assess daily physical activity in AS population studies. However, it is desirable to add questions on AS-specific physical activity. Further studies are needed to investigate the

  13. Caregiver Quality of Life and Daily Functioning in Relation to Ventilating Tube Treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heidemann, Christian Hamilton; Lauridsen, Henrik Hein; Kjeldsen, Anette Drøhse;

    2014-01-01

    rates ranged from 96% to 79%. Significant improvements in disease-specific quality of life were seen after treatment. The poorest baseline quality of life was found in caregivers of children with recurrent acute otitis media. Significant improvements were found on all variables on daily functioning...

  14. Objectively measured daily physical activity related to aerobic fitness in young children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, Magnus; Bugge, Anna; Hermansen, Bianca

    2010-01-01

    , light, moderate, moderate-to-vigorous, and vigorous activity per day were calculated. Mean counts per minute were considered to reflect total physical activity. Pearson correlation coefficients indicated a weak relationship between daily physical activity variables and VO(2peak) in boys (r = 0...

  15. Social Support and its Relation with Daily Activities among Elderly People of Yazd

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tahere Soltani

    2015-03-01

    Discussion & Conclusion: According to the results of this study, increased social support in performing activities of daily living and health promotion can be effective in elderly .Therefore enhance social support and protection needs of the elderly should expand their networks of support for elderly.

  16. Stressor diversity: Introduction and empirical integration into the daily stress model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koffer, Rachel E; Ram, Nilam; Conroy, David E; Pincus, Aaron L; Almeida, David M

    2016-06-01

    The present study examined whether and how stressor diversity, the extent to which stressor events are spread across multiple types of stressors, contributes to daily affective well-being through the adult life span. Stressor diversity was examined as a unique predictor of daily affect and as a moderator of stressor exposure and stressor reactivity effects. Analyses span 2 independent studies of daily stress: the National Study of Daily Experiences with N = 2,022 adults, aged 33 to 85 years, assessed over T = 8 days, and the Intraindividual Study of Affect, Health, and Interpersonal Behavior with N = 150 adults, aged 18 to 89 years, assessed over T = 63 days. Across both studies, older age was associated with less stressor diversity. Additionally, multivariate multilevel models indicated higher stressor diversity was linked with better affective well-being. Age, however, was not a consistent moderator of such associations. The combination of low stressor diversity and high stressor exposure is discussed as an operationalization of chronic stressors, and this combination was associated with particularly high negative affect and low positive affect. We believe further work will benefit from including both the frequency and diversity of stressor experiences in analyses in order to better characterize individuals' stressor experiences. (PsycINFO Database Record

  17. Extreme Rainfall Events Over Southern Africa: Assessment of a Climate Model to Reproduce Daily Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

    2007-12-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of a state-of-the-art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of SST anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model's domain size are firstly presented. Then simulations of current climate from the model, operating in both regional and global mode, are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Thirdly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are briefly presented, suggesting associations between rainfall extremes and both local and remote SST anomalies.

  18. The impact of menstrual cycle-related physical symptoms on daily activities and psychological wellness among adolescent girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Iersel, Kirsten C; Kiesner, Jeff; Pastore, Massimiliano; Scholte, Ron H J

    2016-06-01

    Associations between perimenstrual physical and psychological symptoms have not been adequately studied among adolescent girls. The purpose of the present study was to test a mediation hypothesis postulating that perimenstrual disengagement from daily activities would mediate the association between physical symptoms and psychological symptoms. A non-clinical sample of N = 208 Italian adolescent girls (age M = 16.68 years) completed a 95-item online retrospective questionnaire regarding perimenstrual symptoms, and how these symptoms affect their daily activities. Structural Equation Modeling was used to test the mediation hypothesis. Results showed that physical and psychological symptoms were strongly associated. More importantly, results supported the hypothesis that perimenstrual disengagement from daily activities mediates the association between physical symptoms and psychological symptoms, but only for depressed mood and cognitive symptoms. This study provides support for a novel theoretical framework linking diverse aspects of menstrual cycle change. Longitudinal research is needed to replicate these findings.

  19. A Comparison of Satellite Based, Modeled Derived Daily Solar Radiation Data with Observed Data for the Continental US

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Jeffrey W.; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Wilkens, Paul W.; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Hoell, James M.

    2010-01-01

    Many applications of simulation models and related decision support tools for agriculture and natural resource management require daily meteorological data as inputs. Availability and quality of such data, however, often constrain research and decision support activities that require use of these tools. Daily solar radiation (SRAD) data are especially problematic because the instruments require electronic integrators, accurate sensors are expensive, and calibration standards are seldom available. The Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA/POWER; power.larc.nasa.gov) project at the NASA Langley Research Center estimates daily solar radiation based on data that are derived from satellite observations of outgoing visible radiances and atmospheric parameters based upon satellite observations and assimilation models. The solar data are available for a global 1 degree x 1 degree coordinate grid. SRAD can also be estimated based on attenuation of extraterrestrial radiation (Q0) using daily temperature and rainfall data to estimate the optical thickness of the atmosphere. This study compares daily solar radiation data from NASA/POWER (SRADNP) with instrument readings from 295 stations (SRADOB), as well as with values that were estimated with the WGENR solar generator. WGENR was used both with daily temperature and precipitation records from the stations reporting solar data and records from the NOAA Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), thus providing two additional sources of solar data, SRADWG and SRADCO. Values of SRADNP for different grid cells consistently showed higher correlations (typically 0.85 to 0.95) with SRADOB data than did SRADWG or SRADCO for sites within the corresponding cells. Mean values of SRADOB, SRADWG and SRADNP for sites within a grid cell usually were within 1 MJm-2d-1 of each other, but NASA/POWER values averaged 1.1 MJm-2d-1 lower than SRADOB. The magnitude of this bias was greater at lower latitudes and during summer months and may be at

  20. Daily and compulsive internet use and well-being in adolescence: a diathesis-stress model based on big five personality traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Aa, Niels; Overbeek, Geertjan; Engels, Rutger C M E; Scholte, Ron H J; Meerkerk, Gert-Jan; Van den Eijnden, Regina J J M

    2009-07-01

    This study examined the associations between adolescents' daily Internet use and low well-being (i.e., loneliness, low self-esteem, and depressive moods). We hypothesized that (a) linkages between high levels of daily Internet use and low well-being would be mediated by compulsive Internet use (CIU), and (b) that adolescents with low levels of agreeableness and emotional stability, and high levels of introversion would be more likely to develop CIU and lower well-being. Data were used from a sample of 7888 Dutch adolescents (11-21 years). Results from structural equation modeling analyses showed that daily Internet use was indirectly related to low well-being through CIU. In addition, daily Internet use was found to be more strongly related to CIU in introverted, low-agreeable, and emotionally less-stable adolescents. In turn, again, CIU was more strongly linked to loneliness in introverted, emotionally less-stable, and less agreeable adolescents.

  1. The effect of reproductive performance on the dairy cattle herd value assessed by integrating a daily dynamic programming model with a daily Markov chain model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalantari, A S; Cabrera, V E

    2012-10-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the effect of reproductive performance on dairy cattle herd value. Herd value was defined as the herd's average retention payoff (RPO). Individual cow RPO is the expected profit from keeping the cow compared with immediate replacement. First, a daily dynamic programming model was developed to calculate the RPO of all cow states in a herd. Second, a daily Markov chain model was applied to estimate the herd demographics. Finally, the herd value was calculated by aggregating the RPO of all cows in the herd. Cow states were described by 5 milk yield classes (76, 88, 100, 112, and 124% with respect to the average), 9 lactations, 750 d in milk, and 282 d in pregnancy. Five different reproductive programs were studied (RP1 to RP5). Reproductive program 1 used 100% timed artificial insemination (TAI; 42% conception rate for first TAI and 30% for second and later services) and the other programs combined TAI with estrus detection. The proportion of cows receiving artificial insemination after estrus detection ranged from 30 to 80%, and conception rate ranged from 25 to 35%. These 5 reproductive programs were categorized according to their 21-d pregnancy rate (21-d PR), which is an indication of the rate that eligible cows become pregnant every 21 d. The 21-d PR was 17% for RP1, 14% for RP2, 16% for RP3, 18% for RP4, and 20% for RP5. Results showed a positive relationship between 21-d PR and herd value. The most extreme herd value difference between 2 reproductive programs was $77/cow per yr for average milk yield (RP5 - RP2), $13/cow per yr for lowest milk yield (RP5 - RP1), and $160/cow per yr for highest milk yield (RP5 - RP2). Reproductive programs were ranked based on their calculated herd value. With the exception of the best reproductive program (RP5), all other programs showed some level of ranking change according to milk yield. The most dramatic ranking change was observed in RP1, which moved from being the worst ranked

  2. Development of models to inform a national Daily Landslide Hazard Assessment for Great Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dijkstra, Tom A.; Reeves, Helen J.; Dashwood, Claire; Pennington, Catherine; Freeborough, Katy; Mackay, Jonathan D.; Uhlemann, Sebastian S.; Chambers, Jonathan E.; Wilkinson, Paul B.

    2015-04-01

    were combined with records of observed landslide events to establish which antecedent effective precipitation (AEP) signatures of different duration could be used as a pragmatic proxy for the occurrence of landslides. It was established that 1, 7, and 90 days AEP provided the most significant correlations and these were used to calculate the probability of at least one landslide occurring. The method was then extended over the period 2006 to 2014 and the results evaluated against observed occurrences. It is recognised that AEP is a relatively poor proxy for simulating effective stress conditions along potential slip surfaces. However, the temporal pattern of landslide probability compares well to the observed occurrences and provides a potential benefit to assist with the DLHA. Further work is continuing to fine-tune the model for landslide type, better spatial resolution of effective precipitation input and cross-reference to models that capture changes in water balance and conditions along slip surfaces. The latter is facilitated by intensive research at several field laboratories, such as the Hollin Hill site in Yorkshire, England. At this site, a decade of activity has generated a broad range of research and a wealth of data. This paper reports on one example of recent work; the characterisation of near surface hydrology using infiltration experiments where hydrological pathways are captured, among others, by electrical resistivity tomography. This research, which has further developed our understanding of soil moisture movement in a heterogeneous landslide complex, has highlighted the importance of establishing detailed ground models to enable determination of landslide potential at high resolution. In turn, the knowledge gained through this research is used to enhance the expertise for the daily landslide hazard assessments at a national scale.

  3. Regression model for generating time series of daily precipitation amounts for climate change impact studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buishand, T. A.; Klein Tank, A. M. G.

    1996-05-01

    The precipitation amounts on wet days at De Bilt (the Netherlands) are linked to temperature and surface air pressure through advanced regression techniques. Temperature is chosen as a covariate to use the model for generating synthetic time series of daily precipitation in a CO2 induced warmer climate. The precipitation-temperature dependence can partly be ascribed to the phenomenon that warmer air can contain more moisture. Spline functions are introduced to reproduce the non-monotonous change of the mean daily precipitation amount with temperature. Because the model is non-linear and the variance of the errors depends on the expected response, an iteratively reweighted least-squares technique is needed to estimate the regression coefficients. A representative rainfall sequence for the situation of a systematic temperature rise is obtained by multiplying the precipitation amounts in the observed record with a temperature dependent factor based on a fitted regression model. For a temperature change of 3°C (reasonable guess for a doubled CO2 climate according to the present-day general circulation models) this results in an increase in the annual average amount of 9% (20% in winter and 4% in summer). An extended model with both temperature and surface air pressure is presented which makes it possible to study the additional effects of a potential systematic change in surface air pressure on precipitation.

  4. Daily reservoir inflow forecasting using multiscale deep feature learning with hybrid models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Yun; Chen, Zhiqiang; Xie, Jingjing; Li, Chuan

    2016-01-01

    Inflow forecasting applies data supports for the operations and managements of reservoirs. A multiscale deep feature learning (MDFL) method with hybrid models is proposed in this paper to deal with the daily reservoir inflow forecasting. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition and Fourier spectrum are first employed to extract multiscale (trend, period and random) features, which are then represented by three deep belief networks (DBNs), respectively. The weights of each DBN are subsequently applied to initialize a neural network (D-NN). The outputs of the three-scale D-NNs are finally reconstructed using a sum-up strategy toward the forecasting results. A historical daily inflow series (from 1/1/2000 to 31/12/2012) of the Three Gorges reservoir, China, is investigated by the proposed MDFL with hybrid models. For comparison, four peer models are adopted for the same task. The results show that, the present model overwhelms all the peer models in terms of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE = 11.2896%), normalized root-mean-square error (NRMSE = 0.2292), determination coefficient criteria (R2 = 0.8905), and peak percent threshold statistics (PPTS(5) = 10.0229%). The addressed method integrates the deep framework with multiscale and hybrid observations, and therefore being good at exploring sophisticated natures in the reservoir inflow forecasting.

  5. The technology - activities of daily living questionnaire: a version with a technology-related subscale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Neira, Carlos; López, Oscar L; Riveros, Rodrigo; Núñez-Huasaf, Javier; Flores, Patricia; Slachevsky, Andrea

    2012-01-01

    Information and communication technology (ICT) has become an increasingly important part of daily life. The ability to use technology is becoming essential for autonomous functioning in society. Current functional scales for patients with cognitive impairment do not evaluate the use of technology. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a new version of the Activities of Daily Living Questionnaire (ADLQ) that incorporates an ICT subscale. A new technology-based subscale was incorporated into the Spanish version of the ADLQ (SV-ADLQ), entitled the Technology version of the ADLQ (T-ADLQ). The T-ADLQ was administered to 63 caregivers of dementia patients, 21 proxies of mild cognitive impairment patients and 44 proxies of normal elderly subjects (mean age of the sample ± SD: 73.5 ± 8.30 years). We analysed the convergent validity, internal consistency, reliability cut-off point, sensitivity and specificity of the T-ADLQ. The results of the T-ADLQ were compared to the SV-ADLQ. The T-ADLQ showed significant correlations with the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), the Frontal Assessment Battery (FAB) as well as other measures of functional impairment and dementia severity (MMSE: r = -0.70; FAB: r = -0.65; Functional Assessment Questionnaire: r = 0.77; Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale: r = -0.75; Clinical Dementia Rating Scale: r = 0.72; p technology items in the T-ADLQ did not improve the performance of the scale, which may reflect the lack of widespread use of technology by elderly individuals. Thus, although it appeared reasonable to add technology use questions to the ADLQ, our experience suggested that this has to be done cautiously, since the sensitivity of these additional items could vary in different populations. The T-ADLQ needs to be validated in a different population of dementia subjects. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  6. [Pharmaceutical analysis of chemicals related with daily life products for safe and secure].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakazawa, Hiroyuki

    2014-01-01

    An association between exposure to trace hazardous chemicals such as endocrine disrupting chemicals and an increased incidence of human endocrine disease might be continued to study. The accurate and sensitive analytical methods for determination of various chemicals in human biospecimen such as urine, blood and breast milk have been studied by techniques including chromatography. In order to obtain the safe and secure life, the pharmaceutical analytical approaches might be applicable with the hopes of realizing scientific risk assessment of the chemicals derived from daily life products as regulatory sciences.

  7. A dataset of future daily weather data for crop modelling over Europe derived from climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duveiller, G.; Donatelli, M.; Fumagalli, D.; Zucchini, A.; Nelson, R.; Baruth, B.

    2017-02-01

    Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) simulate different realizations of possible future climates at global scale under contrasting scenarios of land-use and greenhouse gas emissions. Such data require several additional processing steps before it can be used to drive impact models. Spatial downscaling, typically by regional climate models (RCM), and bias-correction are two such steps that have already been addressed for Europe. Yet, the errors in resulting daily meteorological variables may be too large for specific model applications. Crop simulation models are particularly sensitive to these inconsistencies and thus require further processing of GCM-RCM outputs. Moreover, crop models are often run in a stochastic manner by using various plausible weather time series (often generated using stochastic weather generators) to represent climate time scale for a period of interest (e.g. 2000 ± 15 years), while GCM simulations typically provide a single time series for a given emission scenario. To inform agricultural policy-making, data on near- and medium-term decadal time scale is mostly requested, e.g. 2020 or 2030. Taking a sample of multiple years from these unique time series to represent time horizons in the near future is particularly problematic because selecting overlapping years may lead to spurious trends, creating artefacts in the results of the impact model simulations. This paper presents a database of consolidated and coherent future daily weather data for Europe that addresses these problems. Input data consist of daily temperature and precipitation from three dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate simulations of the IPCC A1B emission scenario created within the ENSEMBLES project. Solar radiation is estimated from temperature based on an auto-calibration procedure. Wind speed and relative air humidity are collected from historical series. From these variables, reference evapotranspiration and vapour pressure

  8. Coupled daily streamflow and water temperature modelling in large river basins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. T. H. van Vliet

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Realistic estimates of daily streamflow and water temperature are required for effective management of water resources (e.g. for electricity and drinking water production and freshwater ecosystems. Although hydrological and process-based water temperature modelling approaches have been successfully applied to small catchments and short time periods, much less work has been done at large spatial and temporal scales. We present a physically based modelling framework for daily river discharge and water temperature simulations applicable to large river systems on a global scale. Model performance was tested globally at 1/2 × 1/2° spatial resolution and a daily time step for the period 1971–2000. We made specific evaluations on large river basins situated in different hydro-climatic zones and characterized by different anthropogenic impacts. Effects of anthropogenic heat discharges on simulated water temperatures were incorporated by using global gridded thermoelectric water use datasets and representing thermal discharges as point sources into the heat advection equation. This resulted in a significant increase in the quality of the water temperature simulations for thermally polluted basins (Rhine, Meuse, Danube and Mississippi. Due to large reservoirs in the Columbia which affect streamflow and thermal regimes, a reservoir routing model was used. This resulted in a significant improvement in the performance of the river discharge and water temperature modelling. Overall, realistic estimates were obtained at daily time step for both river discharge (median normalized BIAS = 0.3; normalized RMSE = 1.2; r = 0.76 and water temperature (median BIAS = −0.3 °C; RMSE = 2.8 °C; r = 0.91 for the entire validation period, with similar performance during warm, dry periods. Simulated water temperatures are sensitive to headwater temperature, depending on resolution and flow velocity. A high sensitivity of water temperature to river

  9. Coupled daily streamflow and water temperature modelling in large river basins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. T. H. van Vliet

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Realistic estimates of daily streamflow and water temperature are required for effective management of water resources (e.g. electricity and drinking water production and freshwater ecosystems. Although hydrological and process-based water temperature modelling approaches have been successfully applied to small catchments and short time periods, much less work has been done at large spatial and temporal scales. We present a physically-based modelling framework for daily river discharge and water temperature simulations applicable to large river systems on a global scale. Model performance was tested globally at 1/2° × 1/2° spatial resolution and a daily time step for the period 1971–2000. We made specific evaluations on large river basins situated in different hydro-climatic zones and characterized by different anthropogenic impacts. Effects of anthropogenic heat discharges on simulated water temperatures were incorporated by using global gridded thermoelectric water use data sets and representing thermal discharges as point sources into the heat-advection equation. This resulted in a significant increase in the quality of the water temperature simulations for thermally polluted basins (Rhine, Meuse, Danube and Mississippi. Due to large reservoirs in the Columbia which affect streamflow and thermal regimes, a reservoir routing model was used. This resulted in a significant improvement in the performance of the river discharge and water temperature modelling. Overall, realistic estimates were obtained at daily time step for both river discharge (median normalized BIAS = 0.3; normalized RMSE = 1.2; r = 0.76 and water temperature (median BIAS = −0.3 °C; RMSE = 2.8 °C; r = 0.91 for the entire validation period, with similar performance during warm, dry periods. Simulated water temperatures are sensitive to headwater temperature, depending on resolution and flow velocity. A high sensitivity of water temperature to river

  10. Wavelet based deseasonalization for modelling and forecasting of daily discharge series considering long range dependence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szolgayová Elena

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Short term streamflow forecasting is important for operational control and risk management in hydrology. Despite a wide range of models available, the impact of long range dependence is often neglected when considering short term forecasting. In this paper, the forecasting performance of a new model combining a long range dependent autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA model with a wavelet transform used as a method of deseasonalization is examined. It is analysed, whether applying wavelets in order to model the seasonal component in a hydrological time series, is an alternative to moving average deseasonalization in combination with an ARFIMA model. The one-to-ten-steps-ahead forecasting performance of this model is compared with two other models, an ARFIMA model with moving average deseasonalization, and a multiresolution wavelet based model. All models are applied to a time series of mean daily discharge exhibiting long range dependence. For one and two day forecasting horizons, the combined wavelet - ARFIMA approach shows a similar performance as the other models tested. However, for longer forecasting horizons, the wavelet deseasonalization - ARFIMA combination outperforms the other two models. The results show that the wavelets provide an attractive alternative to the moving average deseasonalization.

  11. Prospective Measurement of Daily Health Behaviors: Modeling Temporal Patterns in Missing Data, Sexual Behavior, and Substance Use in an Online Daily Diary Study of Gay and Bisexual Men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rendina, H Jonathon; Ventuneac, Ana; Mustanski, Brian; Grov, Christian; Parsons, Jeffrey T

    2016-08-01

    Daily diary and other intensive longitudinal methods are increasingly being used to investigate fluctuations in psychological and behavioral processes. To inform the development of this methodology, we sought to explore predictors of and patterns in diary compliance and behavioral reports. We used multilevel modeling to analyze data from an online daily diary study of 371 gay and bisexual men focused on sexual behavior and substance use. We found that greater education and older age as well as lower frequency of substance use were associated with higher compliance. Using polynomial and trigonometric functions, we found evidence for circaseptan patterns in compliance, sexual behavior, and substance use, as well as linear declines in compliance and behavior over time. The results suggest potential sources of non-random patterns of missing data and suggest that trigonometric terms provide a similar but more parsimonious investigation of circaseptan rhythms than do third-order polynomial terms.

  12. Daily air quality forecast (gases and aerosols) over Switzerland. Modeling tool description and first results analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couach, O.; Kirchner, F.; Porchet, P.; Balin, I.; Parlange, M.; Balin, D.

    2009-04-01

    Map3D, the acronym for "Mesoscale Air Pollution 3D modelling", was developed at the EFLUM laboratory (EPFL) and received an INNOGRANTS awards in Summer 2007 in order to move from a research phase to a professional product giving daily air quality forecast. It is intended to give an objective base for political decisions addressing the improvement of regional air quality. This tool is a permanent modelling system which provides daily forecast of the local meteorology and the air pollutant (gases and particles) concentrations. Map3D has been successfully developed and calculates each day at the EPFL site a three days air quality forecast over Europe and the Alps with 50 km and 15 km resolution, respectively (see http://map3d.epfl.ch). The Map3D user interface is a web-based application with a PostgreSQL database. It is written in object-oriented PHP5 on a MVC (Model-View-Controller) architecture. Our prediction system is operational since August 2008. A first validation of the calculations for Switzerland is performed for the period of August 2008 - January 2009 comparing the model results for O3, NO2 and particulates with the results of the Nabel measurements stations. The subject of air pollution regimes (NOX/VOC) and specific indicators application with the forecast will be also addressed.

  13. Multiobjective Optimal Algorithm for Automatic Calibration of Daily Streamflow Forecasting Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Single-objection function cannot describe the characteristics of the complicated hydrologic system. Consequently, it stands to reason that multiobjective functions are needed for calibration of hydrologic model. The multiobjective algorithms based on the theory of nondominate are employed to solve this multiobjective optimal problem. In this paper, a novel multiobjective optimization method based on differential evolution with adaptive Cauchy mutation and Chaos searching (MODE-CMCS is proposed to optimize the daily streamflow forecasting model. Besides, to enhance the diversity performance of Pareto solutions, a more precise crowd distance assigner is presented in this paper. Furthermore, the traditional generalized spread metric (SP is sensitive with the size of Pareto set. A novel diversity performance metric, which is independent of Pareto set size, is put forward in this research. The efficacy of the new algorithm MODE-CMCS is compared with the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II on a daily streamflow forecasting model based on support vector machine (SVM. The results verify that the performance of MODE-CMCS is superior to the NSGA-II for automatic calibration of hydrologic model.

  14. Let it be and keep on going! Acceptance and daily occupational well-being in relation to negative work events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuba, Katharina; Scheibe, Susanne

    2017-01-01

    [Correction Notice: An Erratum for this article was reported in Vol 22(1) of Journal of Occupational Health Psychology (see record 2016-25216-001). In the article, there were errors in the Participants subsection in the Method section. The last three sentences should read "Job tenure ranged from less than 1 year to 32 years, with an average of 8.83 years (SD 7.80). Participants interacted with clients on average 5.44 hr a day (SD 2.41). The mean working time was 7.36 hr per day (SD 1.91)."] Negative work events can diminish daily occupational well-being, yet the degree to which they do so depends on the way in which people deal with their emotions. The aim of the current study was to examine the role of acceptance in the link between daily negative work events and occupational well-being. We hypothesized that acceptance would be associated with better daily occupational well-being, operationalized as low end-of-day negative emotions and fatigue, and high work engagement. Furthermore, we predicted that acceptance would buffer the adverse impact of negative work events on daily well-being. A microlongitudinal study across 10 work days was carried out with 92 employees of the health care sector, yielding a total of 832 daily observations. As expected, acceptance was associated with lower end-of-day negative emotions and fatigue (though there was no association with work engagement) across the 10-day period. Furthermore, acceptance moderated the effect of negative event occurrence on daily well-being: Highly accepting employees experienced less increase in negative emotions and less reduction in work engagement (though comparable end-of-day fatigue) on days with negative work events, relative to days without negative work events, than did less accepting employees. These findings highlight affective, resource-saving, and motivational benefits of acceptance for daily occupational well-being and demonstrate that acceptance is associated with enhanced resilience to daily

  15. Socio-demographic and lifestyle-related characteristics associated with self-reported any, daily and occasional smoking during pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, Ruth; Manniën, Judith; de Jonge, Ank; Heymans, Martijn W; Klomp, Trudy; Hutton, Eileen K; Brug, Johannes

    2013-01-01

    Smoking during pregnancy is a risk factor for various adverse birth outcomes. In order to develop effective interventions, insight is needed into the characteristics associated with pregnant women who smoke. Unknown is whether these characteristics differ for women who smoke daily and women who smoke occasionally. Our study sample, drawn from the DELIVER study (Sept 2009-March 2011), consisted of 6107 pregnant women in primary care in the Netherlands who were up to 34 weeks pregnant. The associations of thirteen socio-demographic or lifestyle-related characteristics with 'any smoking', 'daily smoking' and 'occasional smoking' during pregnancy were tested using multiple binary logistic regression with general estimating equations (GEE). Characteristics most strongly associated with any smoking were low education (OR 10.3; 95% confidence interval (CI) 7.0-15.4), being of Turkish ethnicity (OR 3.9; 95%CI 2.3-6.7) and having no partner (OR 3.7; 95%CI 2.3-6.0). Women of Dutch ethnicity were three times more likely to smoke than those from Dutch-speaking Caribbean countries and non-religious women were much more likely to smoke than religious women. Low education was markedly more strongly associated with daily smoking than with occasional smoking (OR 20.3; 95%CI 13.2-31.3 versus OR 6.0; 95%CI 3.4-10.5). Daily smokers were more likely to be associated with other unfavorable lifestyle-related characteristics, such as not taking folic acid, being underweight, and having had an unplanned pregnancy. There is still much potential for health gain with respect to smoking during pregnancy in the Netherlands. Daily and occasional smokers appear to differ in characteristics, and therefore possibly require different interventions.

  16. Socio-demographic and lifestyle-related characteristics associated with self-reported any, daily and occasional smoking during pregnancy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Baron

    Full Text Available Smoking during pregnancy is a risk factor for various adverse birth outcomes. In order to develop effective interventions, insight is needed into the characteristics associated with pregnant women who smoke. Unknown is whether these characteristics differ for women who smoke daily and women who smoke occasionally. Our study sample, drawn from the DELIVER study (Sept 2009-March 2011, consisted of 6107 pregnant women in primary care in the Netherlands who were up to 34 weeks pregnant. The associations of thirteen socio-demographic or lifestyle-related characteristics with 'any smoking', 'daily smoking' and 'occasional smoking' during pregnancy were tested using multiple binary logistic regression with general estimating equations (GEE. Characteristics most strongly associated with any smoking were low education (OR 10.3; 95% confidence interval (CI 7.0-15.4, being of Turkish ethnicity (OR 3.9; 95%CI 2.3-6.7 and having no partner (OR 3.7; 95%CI 2.3-6.0. Women of Dutch ethnicity were three times more likely to smoke than those from Dutch-speaking Caribbean countries and non-religious women were much more likely to smoke than religious women. Low education was markedly more strongly associated with daily smoking than with occasional smoking (OR 20.3; 95%CI 13.2-31.3 versus OR 6.0; 95%CI 3.4-10.5. Daily smokers were more likely to be associated with other unfavorable lifestyle-related characteristics, such as not taking folic acid, being underweight, and having had an unplanned pregnancy. There is still much potential for health gain with respect to smoking during pregnancy in the Netherlands. Daily and occasional smokers appear to differ in characteristics, and therefore possibly require different interventions.

  17. Modeling daily variation of trihalomethane compounds in drinking water system, Houston, Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaib, Embarka; Moschandreas, Demetrios

    2008-03-01

    Total trihalomethanes (TTHM) concentrations vary widely and periodically between 70 and 130 ppb. Data from the National Environmental Services Laboratory, Houston, Texas indicate that pH and free residual chlorine contribute minimally to the wide variability of TTHM levels. Temperature variation in drinking fluctuates from 11 to 27 degrees C. The objective of this research is to formulate a model that delineates more clearly the daily variations of the most prevalent volatile trihalomethane by-products: chloroform (CHCl3), bromodichloromethane (CHBr2Cl), and bromoform (CHBr3) levels from drinking water. This model simulates the daily fluctuation of THM at a single location and at any time during the day as a function of the water temperature and the average concentration of TTHM, which can be estimated. The hypothesis of this study is that observed daily fluctuations of TTHM, CHCl3, CHCl2Br, CHClBr2, and CHBr3 are periodic. This hypothesis is tested using autocorrelation functions and it is shown that for the series of pH the correlation coefficient is maximal at zero lags, rapidly decreases to zero, and increases again between 4- and 6-h period. Such pattern suggests random fluctuation unrelated to time. However, the series of free residual chlorine, temperature, TTHM, CHCl3, CHCl2Br, CHClBr2, and CHBr3 suggest a different pattern. The correlation coefficient increases when the time-shift approaches 24 h. These repetitions in fluctuation of content over a 24-h period are statistically significant. The model formulated in this study provides insights in TTHM variation and is a necessary tool to reduce the error when estimating potential risk from exposure to trihalomethane compounds in drinking water system. In general, calculation of potential risk by using a value measured early morning or late afternoon concentrations were found minimal lead to an underestimation of the population risk.

  18. A dynamic model of once-daily 5-aminosalicylic acid predicts clinical efficacy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Deepak; Parakkal; Eli; D; Ehrenpreis; Matthew; P; Thorpe; Karson; S; Putt; Bruce; Hannon

    2010-01-01

    New once daily mesalamine formulations may improve adherence to medication usage.Response to Asacol and other forms of 5-aminosalicyclic acid(5-ASA)is better correlated with tissue concentrations and best predicted by concentrations of the drug within the lumen of the colon.Our group used computer simulation to predict colonic 5-ASA levels after Asacol administration.In our study,the model simulated Asacol distribution in the healthy colon,and during quiescent and active ulcerative colitis.An Asacol dosage ...

  19. Effect of Estimated Daily Global Solar Radiation Data on the Results of Crop Growth Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herbert Formayer

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available The results of previous studies have suggested that estimated daily globalradiation (RG values contain an error that could compromise the precision of subsequentcrop model applications. The following study presents a detailed site and spatial analysis ofthe RG error propagation in CERES and WOFOST crop growth models in Central Europeanclimate conditions. The research was conducted i at the eight individual sites in Austria andthe Czech Republic where measured daily RG values were available as a reference, withseven methods for RG estimation being tested, and ii for the agricultural areas of the CzechRepublic using daily data from 52 weather stations, with five RG estimation methods. In thelatter case the RG values estimated from the hours of sunshine using the ångström-Prescottformula were used as the standard method because of the lack of measured RG data. At thesite level we found that even the use of methods based on hours of sunshine, which showedthe lowest bias in RG estimates, led to a significant distortion of the key crop model outputs.When the ångström-Prescott method was used to estimate RG, for example, deviationsgreater than ±10 per cent in winter wheat and spring barley yields were noted in 5 to 6 percent of cases. The precision of the yield estimates and other crop model outputs was lowerwhen RG estimates based on the diurnal temperature range and cloud cover were used (mean bias error 2.0 to 4.1 per cent. The methods for estimating RG from the diurnal temperature range produced a wheat yield bias of more than 25 per cent in 12 to 16 per cent of the seasons. Such uncertainty in the crop model outputs makes the reliability of any seasonal yield forecasts or climate change impact assessments questionable if they are based on this type of data. The spatial assessment of the RG data uncertainty propagation over the winter wheat yields also revealed significant differences within the study area. We

  20. Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: Assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

    2009-04-01

    It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will

  1. Modeling and forecasting foreign exchange daily closing prices with normal inverse Gaussian

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teneng, Dean

    2013-09-01

    We fit the normal inverse Gaussian(NIG) distribution to foreign exchange closing prices using the open software package R and select best models by Käärik and Umbleja (2011) proposed strategy. We observe that daily closing prices (12/04/2008 - 07/08/2012) of CHF/JPY, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, NZD/USD, QAR/CHF, QAR/EUR, SAR/CHF, SAR/EUR, TND/CHF and TND/EUR are excellent fits while EGP/EUR and EUR/GBP are good fits with a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test p-value of 0.062 and 0.08 respectively. It was impossible to estimate normal inverse Gaussian parameters (by maximum likelihood; computational problem) for JPY/CHF but CHF/JPY was an excellent fit. Thus, while the stochastic properties of an exchange rate can be completely modeled with a probability distribution in one direction, it may be impossible the other way around. We also demonstrate that foreign exchange closing prices can be forecasted with the normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) Lévy process, both in cases where the daily closing prices can and cannot be modeled by NIG distribution.

  2. [Circular relation between children's social power cognition and daily use of influence tactics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamada, Masafumi; Fuchigami, Katsuyoshi

    2010-08-01

    This study examines how children's social power cognitions about themselves and the collective efficacy of their classrooms affect their selection and use of influence tactics toward their classmates. The effect of daily usage of influence tactics by children on agents' perception of social power is also examined. The results of linear regression analysis indicate that children who see themselves as friendly holders of power deriving from the perception of affable friendships use both collaborative and coercive influence tactics. While the use of collaborative tactics encourages agents' friendly social power cognition, the use of coercive tactics only reinforces their coercive power cognition. In addition, it is suggested that the effect of social power over agents' use of influence tactics is moderated by the collective efficacy of their classroom.

  3. Association of sarcopenia with swallowing problems, related to nutrition and activities of daily living of elderly individuals

    OpenAIRE

    Shiozu, Hiroyasu; Higashijima, Misako; Koga, Tomoshige

    2015-01-01

    [Purpose] The purpose of the current study was to clarify problems associated with swallowing, related to nutrition and activities of daily living (ADL), in elderly individuals with sarcopenia. [Subjects and Methods] Seventy-seven subjects were assigned to a sarcopenia or a non-sarcopenia group according to a definition used by the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People. Analyses were conducted including and excluding subjects with a central nervous system disorders in order to ...

  4. Stochastic Modeling based on Dictionary Approach for the Generation of Daily Precipitation Occurrences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panu, U. S.; Ng, W.; Rasmussen, P. F.

    2009-12-01

    The modeling of weather states (i.e., precipitation occurrences) is critical when the historical data are not long enough for the desired analysis. Stochastic models (e.g., Markov Chain and Alternating Renewal Process (ARP)) of the precipitation occurrence processes generally assume the existence of short-term temporal-dependency between the neighboring states while implying the existence of long-term independency (randomness) of states in precipitation records. Existing temporal-dependent models for the generation of precipitation occurrences are restricted either by the fixed-length memory (e.g., the order of a Markov chain model), or by the reining states in segments (e.g., persistency of homogenous states within dry/wet-spell lengths of an ARP). The modeling of variable segment lengths and states could be an arduous task and a flexible modeling approach is required for the preservation of various segmented patterns of precipitation data series. An innovative Dictionary approach has been developed in the field of genome pattern recognition for the identification of frequently occurring genome segments in DNA sequences. The genome segments delineate the biologically meaningful ``words" (i.e., segments with a specific patterns in a series of discrete states) that can be jointly modeled with variable lengths and states. A meaningful “word”, in hydrology, can be referred to a segment of precipitation occurrence comprising of wet or dry states. Such flexibility would provide a unique advantage over the traditional stochastic models for the generation of precipitation occurrences. Three stochastic models, namely, the alternating renewal process using Geometric distribution, the second-order Markov chain model, and the Dictionary approach have been assessed to evaluate their efficacy for the generation of daily precipitation sequences. Comparisons involved three guiding principles namely (i) the ability of models to preserve the short-term temporal-dependency in

  5. The ETAS model for daily forecasting of Italian seismicity in the CSEP experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Warner Marzocchi

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the basic properties of the recent shallow seismicity in Italy, through stochastic modeling and statistical methods. Assuming that earthquakes are the realization of a stochastic point process, we have modeled the occurrence rate density in space, time and magnitude using an epidemic-type aftershock sequence model. By applying the maximum likelihood procedure, we estimated the parameters of the model that best fit the Italian instrumental catalog, as recorded by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV from April 16, 2005, to June 1, 2009. Then we applied the estimated model to a second independent dataset (June 1, 2009, to September 1, 2009. We show that the model performed well on this second database, through the relevant statistical tests. The model proposed in the present study is suitable for computing earthquake occurrence probability in real time, and to take part in international initiatives such as the Collaboratory Study for Earthquake Predictability, where we have submitted this model for daily forecasting of Italian seismicity for ML>4.0.

  6. Stochastic modelling of spatially and temporally consistent daily precipitation time-series over complex topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, D. E.; Fischer, A. M.; Frei, C.; Liniger, M. A.; Appenzeller, C.; Knutti, R.

    2014-07-01

    Many climate impact assessments over topographically complex terrain require high-resolution precipitation time-series that have a spatio-temporal correlation structure consistent with observations. This consistency is essential for spatially distributed modelling of processes with non-linear responses to precipitation input (e.g. soil water and river runoff modelling). In this regard, weather generators (WGs) designed and calibrated for multiple sites are an appealing technique to stochastically simulate time-series that approximate the observed temporal and spatial dependencies. In this study, we present a stochastic multi-site precipitation generator and validate it over the hydrological catchment Thur in the Swiss Alps. The model consists of several Richardson-type WGs that are run with correlated random number streams reflecting the observed correlation structure among all possible station pairs. A first-order two-state Markov process simulates intermittence of daily precipitation, while precipitation amounts are simulated from a mixture model of two exponential distributions. The model is calibrated separately for each month over the time-period 1961-2011. The WG is skilful at individual sites in representing the annual cycle of the precipitation statistics, such as mean wet day frequency and intensity as well as monthly precipitation sums. It reproduces realistically the multi-day statistics such as the frequencies of dry and wet spell lengths and precipitation sums over consecutive wet days. Substantial added value is demonstrated in simulating daily areal precipitation sums in comparison to multiple WGs that lack the spatial dependency in the stochastic process: the multi-site WG is capable to capture about 95% of the observed variability in daily area sums, while the summed time-series from multiple single-site WGs only explains about 13%. Limitation of the WG have been detected in reproducing observed variability from year to year, a component that has

  7. Ecological Interventionist Causal Models in Psychosis: Targeting Psychological Mechanisms in Daily Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reininghaus, Ulrich; Depp, Colin A; Myin-Germeys, Inez

    2016-03-01

    Integrated models of psychotic disorders have posited a number of putative psychological mechanisms that may contribute to the development of psychotic symptoms, but it is only recently that a modest amount of experience sampling research has provided evidence on their role in daily life, outside the research laboratory. A number of methodological challenges remain in evaluating specificity of potential causal links between a given psychological mechanism and psychosis outcomes in a systematic fashion, capitalizing on longitudinal data to investigate temporal ordering. In this article, we argue for testing ecological interventionist causal models that draw on real world and real-time delivered, ecological momentary interventions for generating evidence on several causal criteria (association, time order, and direction/sole plausibility) under real-world conditions, while maximizing generalizability to social contexts and experiences in heterogeneous populations. Specifically, this approach tests whether ecological momentary interventions can (1) modify a putative mechanism and (2) produce changes in the mechanism that lead to sustainable changes in intended psychosis outcomes in individuals' daily lives. Future research using this approach will provide translational evidence on the active ingredients of mobile health and in-person interventions that promote sustained effectiveness of ecological momentary interventions and, thereby, contribute to ongoing efforts that seek to enhance effectiveness of psychological interventions under real-world conditions.

  8. Linear genetic programming for time-series modelling of daily flow rate

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Aytac Guven

    2009-04-01

    In this study linear genetic programming (LGP),which is a variant of Genetic Programming,and two versions of Neural Networks (NNs)are used in predicting time-series of daily flow rates at a station on Schuylkill River at Berne,PA,USA.Daily flow rate at present is being predicted based on different time-series scenarios.For this purpose,various LGP and NN models are calibrated with training sets and validated by testing sets.Additionally,the robustness of the proposed LGP and NN models are evaluated by application data,which are used neither in training nor at testing stage.The results showed that both techniques predicted the flow rate data in quite good agreement with the observed ones,and the predictions of LGP and NN are challenging.The performance of LGP,which was moderately better than NN,is very promising and hence supports the use of LGP in predicting of river flow data.

  9. A stage structured mosquito model incorporating effects of precipitation and daily temperature fluctuations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xia; Tang, Sanyi; Cheke, Robert A

    2016-12-21

    An outbreak of dengue fever in Guangdong province in 2014 was the most serious outbreak ever recorded in China. Given the known positive correlation between the abundance of mosquitoes and the number of dengue fever cases, a stage structured mosquito model was developed to investigate the cause of the large abundance of mosquitoes in 2014 and its implications for outbreaks of the disease. Data on the Breteau index (number of containers positive for larvae per 100 premises investigated), temperature and precipitation were used for model fitting. The egg laying rate, the development rate and the mortality rates of immatures and adults were obtained from the estimated parameters. Moreover, effects of daily fluctuations of temperature on these parameters were obtained and the effects of temperature and precipitation were analyzed by simulations. Our results indicated that the abundance of mosquitoes depended not only on the total annual precipitation but also on the distribution of the precipitation. The daily mean temperature had a nonlinear relationship with the abundance of mosquitoes, and large diurnal temperature differences can reduce the abundance of mosquitoes. In addition, effects of increasing precipitation and temperature were interdependent. Our findings suggest that the large abundance of mosquitoes in 2014 was mainly caused by the distribution of the precipitation. In the perspective of mosquito control, our results reveal that it is better to clear water early and spray insecticide between April and August in case of limited resources.

  10. Reconstruction of daily erythemal UV radiation values for the last century - The benefit of modelled ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junk, J.; Feister, U.; Rozanov, E.; Krzyścin, J. W.

    2013-05-01

    Solar erythemal UV radiation (UVER) is highly relevant for numerous biological processes that affect plants, animals, and human health. Nevertheless, long-term UVER records are scarce. As significant declines in the column ozone concentration were observed in the past and a recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer is anticipated by the middle of the 21st century, there is a strong interest in the temporal variation of UVER time series. Therefore, we combined groundbased measurements of different meteorological variables with modeled ozone data sets to reconstruct time series of daily totals of UVER at the Meteorological Observatory Potsdam, Germany. Artificial neural networks were trained with measured UVER, sunshine duration, the day of year, measured and modeled total column ozone, as well as the minimum solar zenith angle. This allows for the reconstruction of daily totals of UVER for the period from 1901 to 1999. Additionally, analyses of the long-term variations from 1901 until 1999 of the reconstructed, new UVER data set are presented. The time series of monthly and annual totals of UVER provide a long-term meteorological basis for epidemiological investigations in human health and occupational medicine for the region of Potsdam and Berlin. A strong benefit of our ANN-approach is the fact that it can be easily adapted to different geographical locations, as successfully tested in the framework of the COSTAction 726.

  11. Temporal scaling analysis of irradiance estimated from daily satellite data and numerical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vindel, Jose M.; Navarro, Ana A.; Valenzuela, Rita X.; Ramírez, Lourdes

    2016-11-01

    The temporal variability of global irradiance estimated from daily satellite data and numerical models has been compared for different spans of time. According to the time scale considered, a different behaviour can be expected for each climate. Indeed, for all climates and at small scale, the persistence decreases as this scale increases, but the mediterranean climate, and its continental variety, shows higher persistence than oceanic climate. The probabilities of maintaining the values of irradiance after a certain period of time have been used as a first approximation to analyse the quality of each source, according to the climate. In addition, probability distributions corresponding to variations of clearness indices measured at several stations located in different climate zones have been compared with those obtained from satellite and modelling estimations. For this work, daily radiation data from the reanalysis carried out by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and from the Satellite Application Facilities on climate monitoring have been used for mainland Spain. According to the results, the temporal series estimation of irradiance is more accurate when using satellite data, independent of the climate considered. In fact, the coefficients of determination corresponding to the locations studied are always above 0.92 in the case of satellite data, while this coefficient decreases to 0.69 for some cases of the numerical model. This conclusion is more evident in oceanic climates, where the most important errors can be observed. Indeed, in this case, the RRMSE derived from the CM-SAF estimations is 20.93%, while in the numerical model, it is 48.33%. Analysis of the probabilities corresponding to variations in the clearness indices also shows a better behaviour of the satellite-derived estimates for oceanic climate. For the standard mediterranean climate, the satellite also provides better results, though the numerical model improves

  12. Daily and seasonal variation of traffic related aerosol pollution in Thessaloniki, Greece, during the financial crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vouitsis, Ilias; Amanatidis, Stavros; Ntziachristos, Leonidas; Kelessis, Apostolos; Petrakakis, Maximos; Stamos, Iraklis; Mitsakis, Evangelos; Samaras, Zissis

    2015-12-01

    Airborne urban particulate and gaseous pollutants measurements were conducted at the kerbside of a busy road and at a nearby urban background site of Thessaloniki, Greece, during a winter and a summer period. The main objective was to observe how the financial crisis has affected the air quality in the city, compared to previous measurements. Compared to a study conducted in 2006, the current work suggests that although average concentrations at the traffic affected site remain higher that in the urban background station, the differences are much smaller than in the past. A number of observations suggest a scenario of decrease in traffic activity and increase in biomass burning for residential heating. On this basis, the results suggest that traffic may be less important as an air quality contributor in a financially hit city. On the contrary, domestic heating appears as a significant contributor and affects areas of the city that were earlier not being of environmental concern. Because of the impact of biomass burning in residential areas, exposure calculations are required to estimate whether traffic or biomass burning is the overall highest contributors to daily PM dosages that citizens of the city are exposed to.

  13. Bayesian multinomial probit modeling of daily windows of susceptibility for maternal PM2.5 exposure and congenital heart defects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Past epidemiologic studies suggest maternal ambient air pollution exposure during critical periods of the pregnancy is associated with fetal development. We introduce a multinomial probit model that allows for the joint identification of susceptible daily periods during the pregn...

  14. Distinguishing Ice from Snow for Melt Modeling Using Daily Observations from MODIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rittger, K.; Brodzik, M. J.; Racoviteanu, A.; Barrett, A. P.; Khalsa, S. J. S.; Painter, T. H.; Armstrong, R. L.; Burgess, A. B.

    2014-12-01

    In Earth's mountainous regions, melt from both seasonal snow and glacier ice contributes to streamflow. Few in-situ observations exist that can help distinguish between the two components of melt, particularly across large mountain ranges. In this study, we analyze daily time series of MODIS data products to distinguish ice from snow as the seasonal snowpack recedes revealing firn and glacier ice surfaces. We run a temperature index melt model for the Hunza, a sub-basin of the Upper Indus basin using the MODIS data to discriminate between glacier ice and snow and partition the corresponding streamflow. During the ablation period, this high elevation mid-latitude snowpack receives intense incoming solar radiation resulting in snow grain growth and surface albedo decreases. To explore snow grain growth, we use estimates of grain size from both the MODIS Snow Covered Area and Grain Size Model (MODSCAG) and MODIS Dust Radiative Forcing in Snow (MODDRFS). To explore albedo reduction we use 2 standard albedo products from MODIS, the Terra Daily Snow Cover algorithm (MOD10A1) and Surface Reflectance BRDF/Albedo (MOD43). We use a threshold on the grain size and albedo products to discriminate ice from snow. We test the ability of the 4 MODIS products to discriminate snow from glacier ice using higher resolution data from the Landsat 8 sensor from July 5th and July 21st, 2013 for a subset of the study area in the Karakoram region of the Himalaya that includes the Yazghil and Hopper Glaciers that drain north and northeast in the Shimshall Valley, part of the Hunza River basin. Snow and glacier ice are mapped using band ratio techniques, and are then separated on the basis of broadband albedo values calculated from Landsat bands for comparison with MODIS-derived snow and glacier ice pixels. We run a temperature index melt model that uses gap filled snow covered area from MODSCAG and interpolated station temperature data for the Hunza River basin. The model outputs daily melt

  15. A current precipitation index-based model for continuous daily runoff simulation in seasonally snow covered sub-arctic catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanegbu, Justice O.; Marttila, Hannu; Ronkanen, Anna-Kaisa; Kløve, Bjørn

    2017-02-01

    A new precipitation index-based model, which includes a snow accumulation and melt component, has been developed to simulate hydrology in high latitude catchments. The model couples a point snowmelt model with a current precipitation index (CPI) formulation to simulate continuous daily runoff from catchments with seasonal snow cover. A new runoff conversion factor: CT and Lf, threshold flow factor ThQ and runoff transformation function Maxbas were introduced into the CPI equation, which converts and transforms the routed daily CPI into daily runoff and maintains the daily base flow in the catchment. The model was developed using twelve sub-arctic boreal catchments located above and below the Arctic Circle in northern Finland, representing a region with considerable seasonal snow cover. The results showed that the model can adequately simulate and produce the dynamics of daily runoff from catchments where the underlying physical conditions are not known. An open-access Excel-based model is provided with this paper for daily runoff simulations. The model can be used to estimate runoff in sub-arctic regions where little data is typically available but significant changes in climate are expected, with considerable shifts in the amount and timing of snowmelt and runoff.

  16. Daily reservoir sedimentation model: Case study from the Fena Valley Reservoir, Guam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marineau, Mathieu D.; Wright, Scott A.

    2017-01-01

    A model to compute reservoir sedimentation rates at daily timescales is presented. The model uses streamflow and sediment load data from nearby stream gauges to obtain an initial estimate of sediment yield for the reservoir’s watershed; it is then calibrated to the total deposition calculated from repeat bathymetric surveys. Long-term changes to reservoir trapping efficiency are also taken into account. The model was applied to the Fena Valley Reservoir, a water supply reservoir on the island of Guam. This reservoir became operational in 1951 and was recently surveyed in 2014. The model results show that the highest rate of deposition occurred during two typhoons (Typhoon Alice in 1953 and Typhoon Tingting in 2004); each storm decreased reservoir capacity by approximately 2–3% in only a few days. The presented model can be used to evaluate the impact of an extreme event, or it can be coupled with a watershed runoff model to evaluate potential impacts to storage capacity as a result of climate change or other hydrologic modifications.

  17. Evaluating regional climate models for simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortés-Hernández, Virginia Edith; Zheng, Feifei; Evans, Jason; Lambert, Martin; Sharma, Ashish; Westra, Seth

    2016-09-01

    Sub-daily rainfall extremes are of significant societal interest, with implications for flash flooding and the design of urban stormwater systems. It is increasingly recognised that extreme subdaily rainfall will intensify as a result of global temperature increases, with regional climate models (RCMs) representing one of the principal lines of evidence on the likely magnitude and spatiotemporal characteristics of these changes. To evaluate the ability of RCMs to simulate subdaily extremes, it is common to compare the simulated statistical characteristics of the extreme rainfall events with those from observational records. While such analyses are important, they provide insufficient insight into whether the RCM reproduces the correct underlying physical processes; in other words, whether the model "gets the right answers for the right reasons". This paper develops a range of metrics to assess the performance of RCMs in capturing the physical mechanisms that produce extreme rainfall. These metrics include the diurnal and seasonal cycles, relationship between rainfall intensity and temperature, temporal scaling, and the spatial structure of extreme rainfall events. We evaluate a high resolution RCM—the Weather Research Forecasting model—over the Greater Sydney region, using three alternative parametrization schemes. The model shows consistency with the observations for most of the proposed metrics. Where differences exist, these are dependent on both the rainfall duration and model parameterization strategy. The use of physically meaningful performance metrics not only enhances the confidence in model simulations, but also provides better diagnostic power to assist with future model improvement.

  18. A Pareto-optimal moving average multigene genetic programming model for daily streamflow prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Kahya, Ercan

    2017-06-01

    Genetic programming (GP) is able to systematically explore alternative model structures of different accuracy and complexity from observed input and output data. The effectiveness of GP in hydrological system identification has been recognized in recent studies. However, selecting a parsimonious (accurate and simple) model from such alternatives still remains a question. This paper proposes a Pareto-optimal moving average multigene genetic programming (MA-MGGP) approach to develop a parsimonious model for single-station streamflow prediction. The three main components of the approach that take us from observed data to a validated model are: (1) data pre-processing, (2) system identification and (3) system simplification. The data pre-processing ingredient uses a simple moving average filter to diminish the lagged prediction effect of stand-alone data-driven models. The multigene ingredient of the model tends to identify the underlying nonlinear system with expressions simpler than classical monolithic GP and, eventually simplification component exploits Pareto front plot to select a parsimonious model through an interactive complexity-efficiency trade-off. The approach was tested using the daily streamflow records from a station on Senoz Stream, Turkey. Comparing to the efficiency results of stand-alone GP, MGGP, and conventional multi linear regression prediction models as benchmarks, the proposed Pareto-optimal MA-MGGP model put forward a parsimonious solution, which has a noteworthy importance of being applied in practice. In addition, the approach allows the user to enter human insight into the problem to examine evolved models and pick the best performing programs out for further analysis.

  19. Modeling and prediction of daily gas concentration variation at a mining face based on the elliptic orbit model:A case study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang Zongchang; Zhou Shaowu

    2015-01-01

    Monitoring and analysis of daily gas concentrations at a mining face is a vital task on safety production and security management in the coal-mining industry. This study addresses modeling and prediction of daily gas concentration variations based on the elliptic orbit model. The model describes the hourly variation in daily gas concentration by mapping its time-series into the polar coordinates to create its elliptic orbit trace for further analysis. Experiments show workability of the proposed method that daily gas concentration variation at a mining face of one coal mine in China is well described by the elliptic orbit model. Result analysis and performance comparison of the proposed elliptic orbit model with the classical AR model on the same prediction tasks indicate potentiality of the proposed elliptic orbit model, which presents a vivid approach for modeling and forecasting daily gas concentration variations in an intuitive and concise way.

  20. Prioritization of pesticides based on daily dietary exposure potential as determined from the SHEDS model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melnyk, Lisa Jo; Wang, Zhaohui; Li, Zhilin; Xue, Jianping

    2016-10-01

    A major pathway for exposure to many pesticides is through diet. The objectives were to rank pesticides by comparing their calculated daily dietary exposure as determined by EPA's Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) to single pesticides for different age groups to acceptable daily intakes (ADI), characterize pesticide trends in exposures over different time periods, and determine commodities contributing to pesticide exposures. SHEDS was applied, using Pesticide Data Program (PDP) (1991-2011) and pesticide usage data on crops from USDA combined with NHANES dietary consumption data, to generate exposure estimates by age group. ADI data collected from EPA, WHO, and other sources were used to rank pesticides based on relativeness of the dietary exposure potential to ADI by age groups. Sensitivity analysis provided trends in pesticide exposures. Within SHEDS, commodities contributing the majority of pesticides with greatest exposure potential were determined. The results indicated that the highest ranking pesticides were methamidophos and diazinon which exceeded 100% of the ADI. Sensitivity analysis indicated that exposure to methamidophos, diazinon, malathion, ethion and formetanate hydrochloride had a marked decrease from 1991-1999 to 2000-2011. Contributions analysis indicated that apples, mushroom, carrots, and lettuce contributed to diazinon exposure. Beans and pepper contributed to methamidophos exposure. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  1. Coping with daily thermal variability: behavioural performance of an ectotherm model in a warming world.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José M Rojas

    Full Text Available Global climate change poses one of the greatest threats to species persistence. Most analyses of the potential biological impacts have focused on changes in mean temperature, but changes in thermal variance will also impact organisms and populations. We assessed the effects of acclimation to daily variance of temperature on dispersal and exploratory behavior in the terrestrial isopod Porcellio laevis in an open field. Acclimation treatments were 24 ± 0, 24 ± 4 and 24 ± 8 °C. Because the performance of ectotherms relates nonlinearly to temperature, we predicted that animals acclimated to a higher daily thermal variation should minimize the time exposed in the centre of open field, --i.e. increase the linearity of displacements. Consistent with our prediction, isopods acclimated to a thermally variable environment reduce their exploratory behaviour, hypothetically to minimize their exposure to adverse environmental conditions. This scenario as well as the long latency of animals after releases acclimated to variable environments is consistent with this idea. We suggested that to develop more realistic predictions about the biological impacts of climate change, one must consider the interactions between the mean and variance of environmental temperature on animals' performance.

  2. Coping with daily thermal variability: behavioural performance of an ectotherm model in a warming world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojas, José M; Castillo, Simón B; Folguera, Guillermo; Abades, Sebastián; Bozinovic, Francisco

    2014-01-01

    Global climate change poses one of the greatest threats to species persistence. Most analyses of the potential biological impacts have focused on changes in mean temperature, but changes in thermal variance will also impact organisms and populations. We assessed the effects of acclimation to daily variance of temperature on dispersal and exploratory behavior in the terrestrial isopod Porcellio laevis in an open field. Acclimation treatments were 24 ± 0, 24 ± 4 and 24 ± 8 °C. Because the performance of ectotherms relates nonlinearly to temperature, we predicted that animals acclimated to a higher daily thermal variation should minimize the time exposed in the centre of open field, --i.e. increase the linearity of displacements. Consistent with our prediction, isopods acclimated to a thermally variable environment reduce their exploratory behaviour, hypothetically to minimize their exposure to adverse environmental conditions. This scenario as well as the long latency of animals after releases acclimated to variable environments is consistent with this idea. We suggested that to develop more realistic predictions about the biological impacts of climate change, one must consider the interactions between the mean and variance of environmental temperature on animals' performance.

  3. A long range dependent model with nonlinear innovations for simulating daily river flows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Elek

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available We present the analysis aimed at the estimation of flood risks of Tisza River in Hungary on the basis of daily river discharge data registered in the last 100 years. The deseasonalised series has skewed and leptokurtic distribution and various methods suggest that it possesses substantial long memory. This motivates the attempt to fit a fractional ARIMA model with non-Gaussian innovations as a first step. Synthetic streamflow series can then be generated from the bootstrapped innovations. However, there remains a significant difference between the empirical and the synthetic density functions as well as the quantiles. This brings attention to the fact that the innovations are not independent, both their squares and absolute values are autocorrelated. Furthermore, the innovations display non-seasonal periods of high and low variances. This behaviour is characteristic to generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH models. However, when innovations are simulated as GARCH processes, the quantiles and extremes of the discharge series are heavily overestimated. Therefore we suggest to fit a smooth transition GARCH-process to the innovations. In a standard GARCH model the dependence of the variance on the lagged innovation is quadratic whereas in our proposed model it is a bounded function. While preserving long memory and eliminating the correlation from both the generating noise and from its square, the new model is superior to the previously mentioned ones in approximating the probability density, the high quantiles and the extremal behaviour of the empirical river flows.

  4. Ability in daily activities after early supported discharge models of stroke rehabilitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taule, Tina; Strand, Liv Inger; Assmus, Jörg; Skouen, Jan Sture

    2015-01-01

    Abstract More knowledge is needed about how different rehabilitation models in the municipality influence stroke survivors’ ability in activities of daily living (ADL). Objectives: To compare three models of outpatient rehabilitation; early supported discharge (ESD) in a day unit, ESD at home and traditional treatment in the municipality (control group), regarding change in ADL ability during the first three months after stroke. Methods: A group comparison study was designed within a randomized controlled trial. Included participants were tested with the Assessment of Motor and Process Skills (AMPS) at baseline and discharged directly home. Primary and secondary outcomes were the AMPS and the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). Results and conclusions: Included were 154 participants (57% men, median age 73 years), and 103 participants completed the study. There were no significant group differences in pre–post changed ADL ability measured by the AMPS. To find the best rehabilitation model to improve the quality of stroke survivors’ motor and process skills needs further research. Patients participating in the ESD rehabilitation models were, compared with traditional treatment, significantly associated with improved ADL ability measured by the mRS when controlling for confounding factors, indicating that patients with social needs and physical impairment after stroke may benefit from ESD rehabilitation models. PMID:26005768

  5. Ability in daily activities after early supported discharge models of stroke rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taule, Tina; Strand, Liv Inger; Assmus, Jörg; Skouen, Jan Sture

    2015-01-01

    More knowledge is needed about how different rehabilitation models in the municipality influence stroke survivors' ability in activities of daily living (ADL). To compare three models of outpatient rehabilitation; early supported discharge (ESD) in a day unit, ESD at home and traditional treatment in the municipality (control group), regarding change in ADL ability during the first three months after stroke. A group comparison study was designed within a randomized controlled trial. Included participants were tested with the Assessment of Motor and Process Skills (AMPS) at baseline and discharged directly home. Primary and secondary outcomes were the AMPS and the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). Included were 154 participants (57% men, median age 73 years), and 103 participants completed the study. There were no significant group differences in pre-post changed ADL ability measured by the AMPS. To find the best rehabilitation model to improve the quality of stroke survivors' motor and process skills needs further research. Patients participating in the ESD rehabilitation models were, compared with traditional treatment, significantly associated with improved ADL ability measured by the mRS when controlling for confounding factors, indicating that patients with social needs and physical impairment after stroke may benefit from ESD rehabilitation models.

  6. Exploring the relation between visual mental imagery and affect in the daily life of previously depressed and never depressed individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slofstra, Christien; Nauta, Maaike H; Holmes, Emily A; Bos, Elisabeth H; Wichers, Marieke; Batalas, Nikolaos; Klein, Nicola S; Bockting, Claudi L H

    2017-08-17

    Previously depressed individuals experience disturbances in affect. Affective disturbances may be related to visual mental imagery, given that imagery-based processing of emotional stimuli causes stronger affective responses than verbal processing in experimental laboratory studies. However, the role of imagery-based processing in everyday life is unknown. This study assessed mental imagery in the daily life of previously and never depressed individuals. Higher levels of visual mental imagery was hypothesised to be associated with more affective reactivity to both negatively and positively valenced mental representations. This study was the first to explore mental imagery in daily life using experience sampling methodology. Previously depressed (n = 10) and matched never depressed (n = 11) individuals participated in this study. Momentary affect and imagery-based processing were assessed using the "Imagine your mood" smartphone application. Participants recorded on average 136 momentary reports over a period of 8 weeks. The expected association between visual mental imagery and affective reactivity was not found. Unexpectedly, in both previously and never depressed individuals, higher levels of imagery-based processing of mental representations in daily life were significantly associated with better momentary mood and more positive affect, regardless of valence. The causality of effects remains to be examined in future studies.

  7. Water relations of baobab trees (Adansonia spp. L.) during the rainy season: does stem water buffer daily water deficits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapotin, Saharah Moon; Razanameharizaka, Juvet H; Holbrook, N Michele

    2006-06-01

    Baobab trees are often cited in the literature as water-storing trees, yet few studies have examined this assumption. We assessed the role of stored water in buffering daily water deficits in two species of baobabs (Adansonia rubrostipa Jum. and H. Perrier and Adansonia za Baill.) in a tropical dry forest in Madagascar. We found no lag in the daily onset of sap flow between the base and the crown of the tree. Some night-time sap flow occurred, but this was more consistent with a pattern of seasonal stem water replenishment than with diurnal usage. Intrinsic capacitance of both leaf and stem tissue (0.07-0.08 and 1.1-1.43 MPa(-1), respectively) was high, yet the amount of water that could be withdrawn before turgor loss was small because midday leaf and stem water potentials (WPs) were near the turgor-loss points. Stomatal conductance was high in the daytime but then declined rapidly, suggesting an embolism-avoidance strategy. Although the xylem of distal branches was relatively vulnerable to cavitation (P50: 1.1-1.7 MPa), tight stomatal control and minimum WPs near--1.0 MPa maintained native embolism levels at 30-65%. Stem morphology and anatomy restrict water movement between storage tissues and the conductive pathway, making stored-water usage more appropriate to longer-term water deficits than as a buffer against daily water deficits.

  8. Simulation of large-scale tropical tuna movements in relation with daily remote sensing data: the artificial life approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagorn, L; Petit, M; Stretta, J M

    1997-01-01

    Tunas are known to be able to travel long distances. The aim of this paper is to propose new ethological models which reproduce some tuna movements using the dynamics of their environment. We use sea surface temperature animations (from remote sensing data) to model the South West Indian Ocean, and French purse seiners data are used to estimate movements of fish. The objective of the models will be to find a northern movement from the Mozambique Channel to the Seychelles Islands at the appropriate time (May-July). The initial model uses our ecological knowledge of tunas, i.e. the search behavior for high concentrations of food commonly associated with thermal fronts. In some cases, this simple model creates some northern movements from the Mozambique Channel, but it cannot be used to reproduce large-scale movements between the Mozambique Channel and the Seychelles Islands. The next generation model is created where tuna behaviors are modeled by an artificial neural network, using a genetic algorithm to adjust the connection weights. The tuna school-network receives daily information from its local environment and chooses the best actions in order to be able to pass from the Mozambique Channel to the Seychelles Islands at the appropriate time. One neural network emerges and represents an adaptive behavior able to interpret daily sea surface temperatures to mimic large-scale tuna movements. This artificial behavior can be generalized to each possible departure position from the Mozambique Channel. This modelling represents a new tool to study large-scale movements of pelagic fish, and is a first step towards real-time management of fisheries.

  9. Random regression models for daily feed intake in Danish Duroc pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strathe, Anders Bjerring; Mark, Thomas; Jensen, Just

    The objective of this study was to develop random regression models and estimate covariance functions for daily feed intake (DFI) in Danish Duroc pigs. A total of 476201 DFI records were available on 6542 Duroc boars between 70 to 160 days of age. The data originated from the National test station...... and were collected using ACEMO electronic feeders in the period of 2008 to 2011. The pedigree was traced back to 1995 and included 17222 animals. The phenotypic feed intake curve was decomposed into a fixed curve, being specific to the barn-year-season effect and curves associated with the random pen....... Eigenvalues of the genetic covariance function showed that 33% of genetic variability was explained by the individual genetic curve of the pigs. This proportion was covered by linear (27%) and quadratic (6%) coefficients. Genetic eigenfunctions revealed that altering the shape of the feed intake curve...

  10. Temperature based daily incoming solar radiation modeling based on gene expression programming, neuro-fuzzy and neural network computing techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landeras, G.; López, J. J.; Kisi, O.; Shiri, J.

    2012-04-01

    The correct observation/estimation of surface incoming solar radiation (RS) is very important for many agricultural, meteorological and hydrological related applications. While most weather stations are provided with sensors for air temperature detection, the presence of sensors necessary for the detection of solar radiation is not so habitual and the data quality provided by them is sometimes poor. In these cases it is necessary to estimate this variable. Temperature based modeling procedures are reported in this study for estimating daily incoming solar radiation by using Gene Expression Programming (GEP) for the first time, and other artificial intelligence models such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Traditional temperature based solar radiation equations were also included in this study and compared with artificial intelligence based approaches. Root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) RMSE-based skill score (SSRMSE), MAE-based skill score (SSMAE) and r2 criterion of Nash and Sutcliffe criteria were used to assess the models' performances. An ANN (a four-input multilayer perceptron with ten neurons in the hidden layer) presented the best performance among the studied models (2.93 MJ m-2 d-1 of RMSE). A four-input ANFIS model revealed as an interesting alternative to ANNs (3.14 MJ m-2 d-1 of RMSE). Very limited number of studies has been done on estimation of solar radiation based on ANFIS, and the present one demonstrated the ability of ANFIS to model solar radiation based on temperatures and extraterrestrial radiation. By the way this study demonstrated, for the first time, the ability of GEP models to model solar radiation based on daily atmospheric variables. Despite the accuracy of GEP models was slightly lower than the ANFIS and ANN models the genetic programming models (i.e., GEP) are superior to other artificial intelligence models in giving a simple explicit equation for the

  11. Estimated daily salt intake in relation to blood pressure and blood lipids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thuesen, Betina H; Toft, Ulla; Buhelt, Lone

    2015-01-01

    3294 men and women aged 18-69 years from a general population based study in Copenhagen, Denmark. Estimated 24-hour sodium excretion was calculated by measurements of creatinine and sodium concentration in spot urine in combination with information of sex, age, height and weight. The relations...

  12. Children's Responses to Daily Social Stressors: Relations with Parenting, Children's Effortful Control, and Adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valiente, Carlos; Lemery-Chalfant, Kathryn; Swanson, Jodi

    2009-01-01

    Background: We examined children's coping and involuntary stress responses as mediators of the relations between parenting or children's effortful control (EC) and adjustment. Method: Two hundred and forty primarily Mexican American 7- to 12-year-old children reported on their EC, coping, involuntary stress responses, and problem behaviors.…

  13. Probabilistic daily ILI syndromic surveillance with a spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ta-Chien Chan

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: For daily syndromic surveillance to be effective, an efficient and sensible algorithm would be expected to detect aberrations in influenza illness, and alert public health workers prior to any impending epidemic. This detection or alert surely contains uncertainty, and thus should be evaluated with a proper probabilistic measure. However, traditional monitoring mechanisms simply provide a binary alert, failing to adequately address this uncertainty. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Based on the Bayesian posterior probability of influenza-like illness (ILI visits, the intensity of outbreak can be directly assessed. The numbers of daily emergency room ILI visits at five community hospitals in Taipei City during 2006-2007 were collected and fitted with a Bayesian hierarchical model containing meteorological factors such as temperature and vapor pressure, spatial interaction with conditional autoregressive structure, weekend and holiday effects, seasonality factors, and previous ILI visits. The proposed algorithm recommends an alert for action if the posterior probability is larger than 70%. External data from January to February of 2008 were retained for validation. The decision rule detects successfully the peak in the validation period. When comparing the posterior probability evaluation with the modified Cusum method, results show that the proposed method is able to detect the signals 1-2 days prior to the rise of ILI visits. CONCLUSIONS: This Bayesian hierarchical model not only constitutes a dynamic surveillance system but also constructs a stochastic evaluation of the need to call for alert. The monitoring mechanism provides earlier detection as well as a complementary tool for current surveillance programs.

  14. BIOMAP A Daily Time Step, Mechanistic Model for the Study of Ecosystem Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, J. R.; Neilson, R. P.; Drapek, R. J.; Pitts, B. S.

    2010-12-01

    BIOMAP simulates competition between two Plant Functional Types (PFT) at any given point in the conterminous U.S. using a time series of daily temperature (mean, minimum, maximum), precipitation, humidity, light and nutrients, with PFT-specific rooting within a multi-layer soil. The model employs a 2-layer canopy biophysics, Farquhar photosynthesis, the Beer-Lambert Law for light attenuation and a mechanistic soil hydrology. In essence, BIOMAP is a re-built version of the biogeochemistry model, BIOME-BGC, into the form of the MAPSS biogeography model. Specific enhancements are: 1) the 2-layer canopy biophysics of Dolman (1993); 2) the unique MAPSS-based hydrology, which incorporates canopy evaporation, snow dynamics, infiltration and saturated and unsaturated percolation with ‘fast’ flow and base flow and a ‘tunable aquifer’ capacity, a metaphor of D’Arcy’s Law; and, 3) a unique MAPSS-based stomatal conductance algorithm, which simultaneously incorporates vapor pressure and soil water potential constraints, based on physiological information and many other improvements. Over small domains the PFTs can be parameterized as individual species to investigate fundamental vs. potential niche theory; while, at more coarse scales the PFTs can be rendered as more general functional groups. Since all of the model processes are intrinsically leaf to plot scale (physiology to PFT competition), it essentially has no ‘intrinsic’ scale and can be implemented on a grid of any size, taking on the characteristics defined by the homogeneous climate of each grid cell. Currently, the model is implemented on the VEMAP 1/2 degree, daily grid over the conterminous U.S. Although both the thermal and water-limited ecotones are dynamic, following climate variability, the PFT distributions remain fixed. Thus, the model is currently being fitted with a ‘reproduction niche’ to allow full dynamic operation as a Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM). While global simulations

  15. A cross-cultural study of relationships between daily social interaction and the five-factor model of personality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nezlek, John B; Schütz, Astrid; Schröder-Abé, Michela; Smith, C Veronica

    2011-08-01

    Two studies, one in the United States (N = 130) and another in Germany (N = 100), examined relationships between daily social interaction and the traits of the Five-Factor Model. In both studies, student participants described their social interactions for 2 weeks using the Rochester Interaction Record. In both countries, Agreeableness and Conscientiousness were positively related to reactions to social interaction, whereas Neuroticism was unrelated to reactions to interactions. In the United States, Extraversion and Openness were positively related to reactions to interactions, whereas these factors were not related to reactions to interactions in Germany. In the United States, Extraversion was positively related to how socially active participants were, whereas none of the FFM traits was related to amount of social interaction in the German sample. In both countries, Extraversion was positively related to percent of interactions involving friends. The results highlight the importance of taking into account the sociocultural milieus within which personality unfolds. © 2011 The Authors. Journal Compilation © 2011, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Daily Stress and Alcohol Consumption: Modeling Between-Person and Within-Person Ethnic Variation in Coping Behavior*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldridge-Gerry, Arianna A.; Roesch, Scott C.; Villodas, Feion; McCabe, Cameron; Leung, Queenie K.; Da Costa, Morgan

    2011-01-01

    Objective: Using a daily diary approach, the current study evaluated the relationship between coping and alcohol consumption using a large, multiethnic sample. The primary goals of this study were to (a) identify coping strategies that are either protective or risk factors for alcohol consumption and (b) model between-ethnic and within-ethnic group variation for these relations. Method: College students (N = 365, 69.0% female) were recruited via flyers, course/club presentations, and university seminars. Participants completed Internet-based daily diaries over the course of 5 days and reported specifically on a target stressful event, how they coped with the stressful event, and the amount of alcohol consumed on a daily level. Results: Use of more avoidance-oriented coping strategies (minimization of stressor, emotional rumination) and social support were significantly associated with more alcohol consumption. Ethnicity, however, did moderate some coping—alcohol associations. Use of religious coping was associated with less alcohol consumption and minimization of the stressor was associated with more alcohol consumption in African Americans; use of social support was associated with more alcohol consumption in Asian Americans; and use of problem-focused coping was associated with less alcohol consumption in Whites. Conclusions: Three maladaptive or risky coping strategies with respect to alcohol consumption were identified using an ecologically valid methodology. However, ethnic-specific variation of these risky (and protective) coping factors was identified. The findings highlight the importance of considering both between-ethnic and within-ethnic group variation with respect to the stress/coping and alcohol consumption. PMID:21138719

  17. Revisiting a population-dynamic model of air pollution and daily mortality of the elderly in Philadelphia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Christian J; Lipfert, Frederick W

    2010-05-01

    Epidemiological studies find that elderly, susceptible, and previously impaired individuals are more sensitive to transient air pollution exposures than healthy persons. However, any associated changes in life expectancy remain largely unresolved. Murray and Nelson published a model of daily mortality and air pollution that addresses mortality displacement or harvesting by directly considering population dynamics on the basis of the assumption that a period of illness or frailty precedes most elderly deaths. The underlying concept is that a person's response to an environmental exposure also depends on his/her physiological ability to withstand stress at that time. They used Kalman filtering to estimate an unobservable quantity--the size of the frail subpopulation from which elderly (ages > or = 65 yr) nontraumatic deaths are assumed to derive. They found a small subpopulation, relatively robust to environmental variations over 14 yr, with remaining life expectancies of 8-31 days in this frail status. Here, this model and dataset are expanded to examine the ramifications in more detail (including seasonality), to consider peak ozone as an additional pollutant, and to consider remaining life expectancies of the this frail subpopulation on a daily basis. Previous studies of mortality displacement and of Philadelphia mortality-air-pollution associations are also summarized in general, and agreement with the Murray-Nelson model was found, thus supporting its validity. The estimated additional mortality associated with a given environmental exposure persists for a few days at most but is not always compensated by subsequent mortality deficits. It is concluded that the pollution-associated mortality increases of a few percent in this dataset are consistent with losses of remaining life expectancy of up to a few days. It is also recommended that a more complex population-dynamic model be implemented to examine the extent to which previous short-term environmental

  18. A biology-driven receptor model for daily pollen allergy risk in Korea based on Weibull probability density function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyu Rang; Kim, Mijin; Choe, Ho-Seong; Han, Mae Ja; Lee, Hye-Rim; Oh, Jae-Won; Kim, Baek-Jo

    2016-07-01

    Pollen is an important cause of respiratory allergic reactions. As individual sanitation has improved, allergy risk has increased, and this trend is expected to continue due to climate change. Atmospheric pollen concentration is highly influenced by weather conditions. Regression analysis and modeling of the relationships between airborne pollen concentrations and weather conditions were performed to analyze and forecast pollen conditions. Traditionally, daily pollen concentration has been estimated using regression models that describe the relationships between observed pollen concentrations and weather conditions. These models were able to forecast daily concentrations at the sites of observation, but lacked broader spatial applicability beyond those sites. To overcome this limitation, an integrated modeling scheme was developed that is designed to represent the underlying processes of pollen production and distribution. A maximum potential for airborne pollen is first determined using the Weibull probability density function. Then, daily pollen concentration is estimated using multiple regression models. Daily risk grade levels are determined based on the risk criteria used in Korea. The mean percentages of agreement between the observed and estimated levels were 81.4-88.2 % and 92.5-98.5 % for oak and Japanese hop pollens, respectively. The new models estimated daily pollen risk more accurately than the original statistical models because of the newly integrated biological response curves. Although they overestimated seasonal mean concentration, they did not simulate all of the peak concentrations. This issue would be resolved by adding more variables that affect the prevalence and internal maturity of pollens.

  19. A biology-driven receptor model for daily pollen allergy risk in Korea based on Weibull probability density function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyu Rang; Kim, Mijin; Choe, Ho-Seong; Han, Mae Ja; Lee, Hye-Rim; Oh, Jae-Won; Kim, Baek-Jo

    2017-02-01

    Pollen is an important cause of respiratory allergic reactions. As individual sanitation has improved, allergy risk has increased, and this trend is expected to continue due to climate change. Atmospheric pollen concentration is highly influenced by weather conditions. Regression analysis and modeling of the relationships between airborne pollen concentrations and weather conditions were performed to analyze and forecast pollen conditions. Traditionally, daily pollen concentration has been estimated using regression models that describe the relationships between observed pollen concentrations and weather conditions. These models were able to forecast daily concentrations at the sites of observation, but lacked broader spatial applicability beyond those sites. To overcome this limitation, an integrated modeling scheme was developed that is designed to represent the underlying processes of pollen production and distribution. A maximum potential for airborne pollen is first determined using the Weibull probability density function. Then, daily pollen concentration is estimated using multiple regression models. Daily risk grade levels are determined based on the risk criteria used in Korea. The mean percentages of agreement between the observed and estimated levels were 81.4-88.2 % and 92.5-98.5 % for oak and Japanese hop pollens, respectively. The new models estimated daily pollen risk more accurately than the original statistical models because of the newly integrated biological response curves. Although they overestimated seasonal mean concentration, they did not simulate all of the peak concentrations. This issue would be resolved by adding more variables that affect the prevalence and internal maturity of pollens.

  20. Gender-related Differences in Maximum Gait Speed and Daily Physical Activity in Elderly Hospitalized Cardiac Inpatients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izawa, Kazuhiro P.; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirano, Yasuyuki; Matsushima, Shinya; Suzuki, Tomohiro; Oka, Koichiro; Kida, Keisuke; Suzuki, Kengo; Osada, Naohiko; Omiya, Kazuto; Brubaker, Peter H.; Shimizu, Hiroyuki; Akashi, Yoshihiro J.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Maximum gait speed and physical activity (PA) relate to mortality and morbidity, but little is known about gender-related differences in these factors in elderly hospitalized cardiac inpatients. This study aimed to determine differences in maximum gait speed and daily measured PA based on sex and the relationship between these measures in elderly cardiac inpatients. A consecutive 268 elderly Japanese cardiac inpatients (mean age, 73.3 years) were enrolled and divided by sex into female (n = 75, 28%) and male (n = 193, 72%) groups. Patient characteristics and maximum gait speed, average step count, and PA energy expenditure (PAEE) in kilocalorie per day for 2 days assessed by accelerometer were compared between groups. Gait speed correlated positively with in-hospital PA measured by average daily step count (r = 0.46, P < 0.001) and average daily PAEE (r = 0.47, P < 0.001) in all patients. After adjustment for left ventricular ejection fraction, step counts and PAEE were significantly lower in females than males (2651.35 ± 1889.92 vs 4037.33 ± 1866.81 steps, P < 0.001; 52.74 ± 51.98 vs 99.33 ± 51.40 kcal, P < 0.001), respectively. Maximum gait speed was slower and PA lower in elderly female versus male inpatients. Minimum gait speed and step count values in this study might be minimum target values for elderly male and female Japanese cardiac inpatients. PMID:25789953

  1. Salad Consumption in Relation to Daily Dietary Intake and Diet Quality among U.S. Adults, 2003-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruopeng An

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Backgrounds: This study examined salad consumption in relation to daily dietary intake and diet quality among U.S. adults. Methods: Nationally representative sample came from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003-2012 waves. Salad consumption was identified through both Food and Nutrient Database for Dietary Studies codes for salad items and combination code for components of and/or additions to salads. First-difference estimator addressed confounding bias from time-invariant unobservables (e.g., eating habits, taste preferences by using within-individual variations in salad consumption between 2 nonconsecutive 24-hour dietary recalls. Results: Approximately 28.7% of U.S. adults consumed salad on any given day. Among salad consumers, salad consumption occupied 12.5% of daily total energy, 62.8% vegetable, 11.9% fruit, 18.4% fiber, 9.1% sugar, 20.3% total fat, 14.7% saturated fat, 14.9% cholesterol, and 17.7% sodium intake. Compared to no salad consumption on a dietary recall day, salad consumption was associated with increased daily intake of total energy by 461.5 kJ (110.3 kcal, vegetable 85.0 g, fiber 1.0 g, sugar 5.7 g, total fat 10.0 g, saturated fat 1.3 g, cholesterol 18.7 mg, and sodium 216.3 mg. Salad consumption was associated with an increase in the Healthy Eating Index-2010 score by 4.2. Conclusion: Salad consumption is related to better overall diet quality but also higher total energy, sugar, fat, cholesterol, and sodium intake. Interventions that promote salad consumption should provide low-energy-dense, nutrient-rich salad products. Salad consumers should prudently evaluate the caloric and nutrient content of salad in order to make informed and more healthful diet choices.

  2. Crop model sensitivity to the estimated daily global solar radiation data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Kapler

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The results of the previous studies have suggested that the estimated RG values are loaded with an error, which might compromise the precision of the subsequent crop model applications. Therefore a detailed analysis of the error propagation was made using two crop models i.e. CERES-Barley and CERES-Wheat. Database of meteorological data originating from 8 stations in Austria and Czech Republic was used in order to carry out the analysis. It has been found that even application of the method based on sunshine duration that yield the lowest bias in RG estimates significantly influences number of key crop model outputs. It has been also noted that in 5–6 seasons out of 100 cases the deviation greater than ±10 % is to be expected whilst the occurrence of ±25% could not be also ruled out. The precision of the yield estimates and other crop model outputs is lower then expected but still acceptable for most application with mean bias error in range of 2.0–4.1% when estimates based on the diurnal temperature range and cloud cover are used. In this case yield deviations over ±10% occurred in about 20% cases (depending on the crop whilst the probability of significant yield departure (±25% doubled of that found for the previous method. The methods based on the diurnal temperature range and daily precipitation sum showed an increase of the systematic bias of yield of winter wheat and considerably higher number of seasons with yield departures over ±25%. Utilisation of the methods based on the diurnal temperature range only for the purposes of seasonal yield forecasting or climate change impact assessment is questionable as the probability of significant yield departure is very high (as well as the systematic error. These findings should act as an incentive to the further research aimed at development of more precise and widely applicable methods of estimating daily RG based more on the underlying physical principles and/or remote sensing approach

  3. Simulation of daily streamflow for nine river basins in eastern Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haj, Adel E.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Hutchinson, Kasey J.

    2015-10-14

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for nine river basins in eastern Iowa that drain into the Mississippi River. The models are part of a suite of methods for estimating daily streamflow at ungaged sites. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed- parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration and validation periods used in each basin mostly were October 1, 2002, through September 30, 2012, but differed depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations.

  4. Effects of body mass index on task-related oxygen uptake and dyspnea during activities of daily life in COPD.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anouk W Vaes

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Patients with COPD use a higher proportion of their peak aerobic capacity during the performance of domestic activities of daily life (ADLs compared to healthy peers, accompanied by a higher degree of task-related symptoms. To date, the influence of body mass index (BMI on the task-related metabolic demands remains unknown in patients with COPD. Therefore, the aim of our study was to determine the effects of BMI on metabolic load during the performance of 5 consecutive domestic ADLs in patients with COPD. METHODOLOGY: Ninety-four COPD patients and 20 healhty peers performed 5 consecutive, self-paced domestic ADLs putting on socks, shoes and vest; folding 8 towels; putting away groceries; washing up 4 dishes, cups and saucers; and sweeping the floor for 4 min. Task-related oxygen uptake and ventilation were assessed using a mobile oxycon, while Borg scores were used to assess task-related dyspnea and fatigue. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 1. Relative task-related oxygen uptake after the performance of domestic ADLs was increased in patients with COPD compared to healthy elderly, whereas absolute oxygen uptake is similar between groups; 2. Relative oxygen uptake and oxygen uptake per kilogram fat-free mass were comparable between BMI groups; and 3. Borg symptom scores for dyspnea en fatigue were comparable between BMI groups. CONCLUSION: Patients with COPD in different BMI groups perform self-paced domestic ADLs at the same relative metabolic load, accompanied by comparable Borg symptom scores for dyspnea and fatigue.

  5. A novel hybrid forecasting model for PM₁₀ and SO₂ daily concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ping; Liu, Yong; Qin, Zuodong; Zhang, Guisheng

    2015-02-01

    Air-quality forecasting in urban areas is difficult because of the uncertainties in describing both the emission and meteorological fields. The use of incomplete information in the training phase restricts practical air-quality forecasting. In this paper, we propose a hybrid artificial neural network and a hybrid support vector machine, which effectively enhance the forecasting accuracy of an artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM) by revising the error term of the traditional methods. The hybrid methodology can be described in two stages. First, we applied the ANN or SVM forecasting system with historical data and exogenous parameters, such as meteorological variables. Then, the forecasting target was revised by the Taylor expansion forecasting model using the residual information of the error term in the previous stage. The innovation involved in this approach is that it sufficiently and validly utilizes the useful residual information on an incomplete input variable condition. The proposed method was evaluated by experiments using a 2-year dataset of daily PM₁₀ (particles with a diameter of 10 μm or less) concentrations and SO₂ (sulfur dioxide) concentrations from four air pollution monitoring stations located in Taiyuan, China. The theoretical analysis and experimental results demonstrated that the forecasting accuracy of the proposed model is very promising.

  6. Daily intake of antioxidants in relation to survival among adult patients diagnosed with malignant glioma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Il'yasova Dora

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malignant glioma is a rare cancer with poor survival. The influence of diet and antioxidant intake on glioma survival is not well understood. The current study examines the association between antioxidant intake and survival after glioma diagnosis. Methods Adult patients diagnosed with malignant glioma during 1991-1994 and 1997-2001 were enrolled in a population-based study. Diagnosis was confirmed by review of pathology specimens. A modified food-frequency questionnaire interview was completed by each glioma patient or a designated proxy. Intake of each food item was converted to grams consumed/day. From this nutrient database, 16 antioxidants, calcium, a total antioxidant index and 3 macronutrients were available for survival analysis. Cox regression estimated mortality hazard ratios associated with each nutrient and the antioxidant index adjusting for potential confounders. Nutrient values were categorized into tertiles. Models were stratified by histology (Grades II, III, and IV and conducted for all (including proxy subjects and for a subset of self-reported subjects. Results Geometric mean values for 11 fat-soluble and 6 water-soluble individual antioxidants, antioxidant index and 3 macronutrients were virtually the same when comparing all cases (n = 748 to self-reported cases only (n = 450. For patients diagnosed with Grade II and Grade III histology, moderate (915.8-2118.3 mcg intake of fat-soluble lycopene was associated with poorer survival when compared to low intake (0.0-914.8 mcg, for self-reported cases only. High intake of vitamin E and moderate/high intake of secoisolariciresinol among Grade III patients indicated greater survival for all cases. In Grade IV patients, moderate/high intake of cryptoxanthin and high intake of secoisolariciresinol were associated with poorer survival among all cases. Among Grade II patients, moderate intake of water-soluble folate was associated with greater survival for all cases

  7. A Model for Hourly Solar Radiation Data Generation from Daily Solar Radiation Data Using a Generalized Regression Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamer Khatib

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model for predicting hourly solar radiation data using daily solar radiation averages. The proposed model is a generalized regression artificial neural network. This model has three inputs, namely, mean daily solar radiation, hour angle, and sunset hour angle. The output layer has one node which is mean hourly solar radiation. The training and development of the proposed model are done using MATLAB and 43800 records of hourly global solar radiation. The results show that the proposed model has better prediction accuracy compared to some empirical and statistical models. Two error statistics are used in this research to evaluate the proposed model, namely, mean absolute percentage error and root mean square error. These values for the proposed model are 11.8% and −3.1%, respectively. Finally, the proposed model shows better ability in overcoming the sophistic nature of the solar radiation data.

  8. Coping with Daily Stressors: Modeling Intraethnic Variation in Mexican American Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldridge, Arianna A.; Roesch, Scott C.

    2008-01-01

    Using daily diary methodology, 67 Mexican American adolescents completed measures assessing daily stressors experienced, specific coping strategies employed with reference to these stressors, and indices of psychological health over 5 consecutive days. With respect to coping usage, adolescents reported they most often used planning and least often…

  9. Relative survival multistate Markov model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huszti, Ella; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Alioum, Ahmadou; Binquet, Christine; Quantin, Catherine

    2012-02-10

    Prognostic studies often have to deal with two important challenges: (i) separating effects of predictions on different 'competing' events and (ii) uncertainty about cause of death. Multistate Markov models permit multivariable analyses of competing risks of, for example, mortality versus disease recurrence. On the other hand, relative survival methods help estimate disease-specific mortality risks even in the absence of data on causes of death. In this paper, we propose a new Markov relative survival (MRS) model that attempts to combine these two methodologies. Our MRS model extends the existing multistate Markov piecewise constant intensities model to relative survival modeling. The intensity of transitions leading to death in the MRS model is modeled as the sum of an estimable excess hazard of mortality from the disease of interest and an 'offset' defined as the expected hazard of all-cause 'natural' mortality obtained from relevant life-tables. We evaluate the new MRS model through simulations, with a design based on registry-based prognostic studies of colon cancer. Simulation results show almost unbiased estimates of prognostic factor effects for the MRS model. We also applied the new MRS model to reassess the role of prognostic factors for mortality in a study of colorectal cancer. The MRS model considerably reduces the bias observed with the conventional Markov model that does not permit accounting for unknown causes of death, especially if the 'true' effects of a prognostic factor on the two types of mortality differ substantially.

  10. Preserving spatial linear correlations between neighboring stations in simulating daily precipitation using extended Markov models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ababaei, Behnam; Sohrabi, Teymour; Mirzaei, Farhad

    2014-10-01

    Most stochastic weather generators have their focus on precipitation because it is the most important variable affecting environmental processes. One of the methods to reproduce the precipitation occurrence time series is to use a Markov process. But, in addition to the simulation of short-term autocorrelations in one station, it is sometimes important to preserve the spatial linear correlations (SLC) between neighboring stations as well. In this research, an extension of one-site Markov models was proposed to preserve the SLC between neighboring stations. Qazvin station was utilized as the reference station and Takestan (TK), Magsal, Nirougah, and Taleghan stations were used as the target stations. The performances of different models were assessed in relation to the simulation of dry and wet spells and short-term dependencies in precipitation time series. The results revealed that in TK station, a Markov model with a first-order spatial model could be selected as the best model, while in the other stations, a model with the order of two or three could be selected. The selected (i.e., best) models were assessed in relation to preserving the SLC between neighboring stations. The results depicted that these models were very capable in preserving the SLC between the reference station and any of the target stations. But, their performances were weaker when the SLC between the other stations were compared. In order to resolve this issue, spatially correlated random numbers were utilized instead of independent random numbers while generating synthetic time series using the Markov models. Although this method slightly reduced the model performances in relation to dry and wet spells and short-term dependencies, the improvements related to the simulation of the SLC between the other stations were substantial.

  11. Melatonin in octopus (Octopus vulgaris): tissue distribution, daily changes and relation with serotonin and its acid metabolite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, José L P; López Patiño, Marcos A; Hermosilla, Consuelo; Conde-Sieira, Marta; Soengas, José L; Rocha, Francisco; Míguez, Jesús M

    2011-08-01

    Information regarding melatonin production in molluscs is very limited. In this study the presence and daily fluctuations of melatonin levels were investigated in hemolymph, retina and nervous system-related structures in the cephalopod Octopus vulgaris. Adult animals were maintained in captivity under natural photoperiod and killed at different times in a regular daily cycle. Levels of melatonin, serotonin (5-HT) and its acid metabolite (5-hydroxyindole acetic acid, 5-HIAA) in the hemolymph, retina, optic lobe, and cerebral ganglion were assayed by HPLC. Melatonin content fluctuated rhythmically in the retina and hemolymph, peaking at night. In the retina, but not in the other neural tissues, the rhythm was opposite to that of 5-HT, which displayed basal levels at night. Also, 5-HIAA levels in the retina were higher during the night, supporting that rhythmic melatonin production could be linked to diurnal changes in 5-HT degradation. The high levels of melatonin found in the retina point to it as the major source of melatonin in octopus; in addition, a large variation of melatonin content was found in the optic lobe with maximal values at night. All these data suggest that melatonin might play a role in the transduction of the light-dark cycle information for adjustment of rhythmic physiological events in cephalopods.

  12. Daily training with realistic visual feedback improves reproducibility of event-related desynchronisation following hand motor imagery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, Takashi; Kimura, Akio; Ushiba, Junichi

    2013-09-01

    Few brain-computer interface (BCI) studies have addressed learning mechanisms by exposure to visual feedback that elicits scalp electroencephalogram. We examined the effect of realistic visual feedback of hand movement associated with sensorimotor rhythm. Thirty-two healthy participants performed in five daily training in which they were shown motor imagery of their dominant hand. Participants were randomly assigned to 1 of 4 experimental groups receiving different types of visual feedback on event-related desynchronisation (ERD) derived over the contralateral sensorimotor cortex: no feedback as a control, bar feedback with changing bar length, anatomically incongruent feedback in which the hand open/grasp picture on screen was animated at eye level, and anatomically congruent feedback in which the same hand open/grasp picture was animated on the screen overlaying the participant's hand. Daily training with all types of visual feedback induced more robust ERD than the no feedback condition (p Realistic feedback training is a suitable method to acquire the skill to control a BCI system. This finding highlights the possibility of improvement of reproducibility of ERD and can help to use BCI techniques. Copyright © 2013 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. West African monsoon intraseasonal activity and its daily precipitation indices in regional climate models: diagnostics and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poan, E. D.; Gachon, P.; Dueymes, G.; Diaconescu, E.; Laprise, R.; Seidou Sanda, I.

    2016-11-01

    The West African monsoon intraseasonal variability has huge socio-economic impacts on local populations but understanding and predicting it still remains a challenge for the weather prediction and climate scientific community. This paper analyses an ensemble of simulations from six regional climate models (RCMs) taking part in the coordinated regional downscaling experiment, the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI) and three satellite-based and observationally-constrained daily precipitation datasets, to assess the performance of the RCMs with regard to the intraseasonal variability. A joint analysis of seasonal-mean precipitation and the total column water vapor (also called precipitable water— PW) suggests the existence of important links at different timescales between these two variables over the Sahel and highlights the relevance of using PW to follow the monsoon seasonal cycle. RCMs that fail to represent the seasonal-mean position and amplitude of the meridional gradient of PW show the largest discrepancies with respect to seasonal-mean observed precipitation. For both ERAI and RCMs, spectral decompositions of daily PW as well as rainfall show an overestimation of low-frequency activity (at timescales longer than 10 days) at the expense of the synoptic (timescales shorter than 10 days) activity. Consequently, the effects of the African Easterly Waves and the associated mesoscale convective systems are substantially underestimated, especially over continental regions. Finally, the study investigates the skill of the models with respect to hydro-climatic indices related to the occurrence, intensity and frequency of precipitation events at the intraseasonal scale. Although most of these indices are generally better reproduced with RCMs than reanalysis products, this study indicates that RCMs still need to be improved (especially with respect to their subgrid-scale parameterization schemes) to be able to reproduce the intraseasonal variance spectrum adequately.

  14. Comparative efficacy of two daily use mouthrinses: randomized clinical trial using an experimental gingivitis model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Ann Charles

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Two antimicrobial agents, a fixed combination of essential oils (EOs and 0.07% cetylpyridinium chloride (CPC are found in commercially available mouthrinses, Listerine® Antiseptic and Crest® Pro HealthTM, respectively. Both mouthrinses have been shown to control dental plaque and gingivitis in short and longer term studies. The aim of this study was to determine the comparative effectiveness of these two mouthrinses using a 2-week experimental gingivitis model. Qualified subjects were randomly assigned to one of three mouthrinse groups: a fixed combination of EOs, 0.07% CPC, or negative control (C rinse. Following baseline clinical assessments and a dental prophylaxis, subjects began a two-week period in which they rinsed twice daily with their assigned rinse and abstained from any mechanical oral hygiene procedures or other oral care products. Subjects were reassessed at the end of the two-week period. One hundred and forty-seven subjects were randomized and 142 completed this study. After two weeks use, the EOs rinse was superior (p < 0.011 to the CPC rinse in inhibiting the development of gingivitis, plaque, and bleeding, with 9.4% and 6.6% reductions compared to CPC for gingivitis and plaque, respectively. Both rinses were superior to the negative control rinse (p < 0.001. This study demonstrates that the essential oil-containing mouthrinse has superior antiplaque/antigingivitis effectiveness compared to the 0.07% CPC-containing mouthrinse without mechanical oral hygiene influence.

  15. Oral temperatures of the elderly in nursing homes in summer and winter in relation to activities of daily living

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, K.; Tanaka, Masatoshi; Motohashi, Yutaka; Maeda, Akira

    This study was conducted to clarify the seasonal difference in body temperature in summer and winter, and to document the thermal environment of the elderly living in nursing homes. The subjects were 57 healthy elderly people aged >=63 years living in two nursing homes in Japan. One of the homes was characterized by subjects with low levels of activities of daily living (ADL). Oral temperatures were measured in the morning and afternoon, with simultaneous recording of ambient temperature and relative humidity. Oral temperatures in summer were higher than in winter, with statistically significant differences (Pelderly are lower in winter than summer, particularly in physically inactive people. It appears that those with low levels of ADL are more vulnerable to large changes in ambient temperature.

  16. Object-relational mapping model

    OpenAIRE

    Žukauskas, Arūnas

    2007-01-01

    This work is analyzing problems, arising because of sematical gap between relational and object-oriented approaches and discusses how to utilize object-relational mapping for solving this problem. After analysis of object-relational mapping framework (further – ORM) principles and features of existing ORM frameworks a model is suggested, that allows to implement ORM by utilizing MVP principles in a way that retains major portion of both approach pros and is perfect for transitioning existing ...

  17. A general model for estimation of daily global solar radiation using air temperatures and site geographic parameters in Southwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Mao-Fen; Fan, Li; Liu, Hong-Bin; Guo, Peng-Tao; Wu, Wei

    2013-01-01

    Estimation of daily global solar radiation (Rs) from routinely measured temperature data has been widely developed and used in many different areas of the world. However, many of them are site specific. It is assumed that a general model for estimating daily Rs using temperature variables and geographical parameters could be achieved within a climatic region. This paper made an attempt to develop a general model to estimate daily Rs using routinely measured temperature data (maximum (Tmax, °C) and minimum (Tmin, °C) temperatures) and site geographical parameters (latitude (La, °N), longitude (Ld, °E) and altitude (Alt, m)) for Guizhou and Sichuan basin of southwest China, which was classified into the hot summer and cold winter climate zone. Comparison analysis was carried out through statistics indicators such as root mean squared error of percentage (RMSE%), modeling efficiency (ME), coefficient of residual mass (CRM) and mean bias error (MBE). Site-dependent daily Rs estimating models were calibrated and validated using long-term observed weather data. A general formula was then obtained from site geographical parameters and the better fit site-dependent models with mean RMSE% of 38.68%, mean MBE of 0.381 MJ m-2 d-1, mean CRM of 0.04 and mean ME value of 0.713.

  18. Long-term daily access to alcohol alters dopamine-related synthesis and signaling proteins in the rat striatum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashem, Mohammed Abul; Ahmed, Selina; Sarker, Ranjana; Ahmed, Eakhlas U; Hargreaves, Garth A; McGregor, Iain S

    2012-12-01

    Chronic alcohol exposure can adversely affect neuronal morphology, synaptic architecture and associated neuroplasticity. However, the effects of moderate levels of long-term alcohol intake on the brain are a matter of debate. The current study used 2-DE (two-dimensional gel electrophoresis) proteomics to examine proteomic changes in the striatum of male Wistar rats after 8 months of continuous access to a standard off-the-shelf beer in their home cages. Alcohol intake under group-housed conditions during this time was around 3-4 g/kg/day, a level below that known to induce physical dependence in rats. After 8 months of access rats were euthanased and 2-DE proteomic analysis of the striatum was conducted. A total of 28 striatal proteins were significantly altered in the beer drinking rats relative to controls. Strikingly, many of these were dopamine (DA)-related proteins, including tyrosine hydroxylase (an enzyme of DA biosynthesis), pyridoxal phosphate phosphatase (a co-enzyme in DA biosynthesis), DA and cAMP regulating phosphoprotein (a regulator of DA receptors and transporters), protein phosphatase 1 (a signaling protein) and nitric oxide synthase (which modulates DA uptake). Selected protein expression changes were verified using Western blotting. We conclude that long-term moderate alcohol consumption is associated with substantial alterations in the rat striatal proteome, particularly with regard to dopaminergic signaling pathways. This provides potentially important evidence of major neuroadaptations in dopamine systems with daily alcohol consumption at relatively modest levels.

  19. From daily to sub-daily time steps - Creating a high temporal and spatial resolution climate reference data set for hydrological modeling and bias-correction of RCM data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willkofer, Florian; Wood, Raul R.; Schmid, Josef; von Trentini, Fabian; Ludwig, Ralf

    2016-04-01

    The ClimEx project (Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec) focuses on the effects of climate change on hydro-meteorological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. It builds on the conjoint analysis of a large ensemble of the CRCM5, driven by 50 members of the CanESM2, and the latest information provided through the CORDEX-initiative, to better assess the influence of natural climate variability and climatic change on the dynamics of extreme events. A critical point in the entire project is the preparation of a meteorological reference dataset with the required temporal (1-6h) and spatial (500m) resolution to be able to better evaluate hydrological extreme events in mesoscale river basins. For Bavaria a first reference data set (daily, 1km) used for bias-correction of RCM data was created by combining raster based data (E-OBS [1], HYRAS [2], MARS [3]) and interpolated station data using the meteorological interpolation schemes of the hydrological model WaSiM [4]. Apart from the coarse temporal and spatial resolution, this mosaic of different data sources is considered rather inconsistent and hence, not applicable for modeling of hydrological extreme events. Thus, the objective is to create a dataset with hourly data of temperature, precipitation, radiation, relative humidity and wind speed, which is then used for bias-correction of the RCM data being used as driver for hydrological modeling in the river basins. Therefore, daily data is disaggregated to hourly time steps using the 'Method of fragments' approach [5], based on available training stations. The disaggregation chooses fragments of daily values from observed hourly datasets, based on similarities in magnitude and behavior of previous and subsequent events. The choice of a certain reference station (hourly data, provision of fragments) for disaggregating daily station data (application

  20. The role of competence and value beliefs in students' daily emotional experiences : A multilevel test of a transactional model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ahmed, W.; Minnaert, A.E.M.G.; Van der Werf, M.P.C.; Kuyper, H.

    2010-01-01

    This study examined the mutual influence of relatively stable personal competence and value beliefs and lesson specific appraisals of competence and value on daily emotional experiences of students in the classroom context. Personal competence and value beliefs were measured by means of questionnair

  1. Technical evaluation of a total maximum daily load model for Upper Klamath and Agency Lakes, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Tamara M.; Wherry, Susan A.; Carter, James L.; Kuwabara, James S.; Simon, Nancy S.; Rounds, Stewart A.

    2013-01-01

    We reviewed a mass balance model developed in 2001 that guided establishment of the phosphorus total maximum daily load (TMDL) for Upper Klamath and Agency Lakes, Oregon. The purpose of the review was to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the model and to determine whether improvements could be made using information derived from studies since the model was first developed. The new data have contributed to the understanding of processes in the lakes, particularly internal loading of phosphorus from sediment, and include measurements of diffusive fluxes of phosphorus from the bottom sediments, groundwater advection, desorption from iron oxides at high pH in a laboratory setting, and estimates of fluxes of phosphorus bound to iron and aluminum oxides. None of these processes in isolation, however, is large enough to account for the episodically high values of whole-lake internal loading calculated from a mass balance, which can range from 10 to 20 milligrams per square meter per day for short periods. The possible role of benthic invertebrates in lake sediments in the internal loading of phosphorus in the lake has become apparent since the development of the TMDL model. Benthic invertebrates can increase diffusive fluxes several-fold through bioturbation and biodiffusion, and, if the invertebrates are bottom feeders, they can recycle phosphorus to the water column through metabolic excretion. These organisms have high densities (1,822–62,178 individuals per square meter) in Upper Klamath Lake. Conversion of the mean density of tubificid worms (Oligochaeta) and chironomid midges (Diptera), two of the dominant taxa, to an areal flux rate based on laboratory measurements of metabolic excretion of two abundant species suggested that excretion by benthic invertebrates is at least as important as any of the other identified processes for internal loading to the water column. Data from sediment cores collected around Upper Klamath Lake since the development of the

  2. Development and evaluation of a daily temporal interpolation model for fine particulate matter species concentrations and source apportionment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redman, Jeremiah D.; Holmes, Heather A.; Balachandran, Sivaraman; Maier, Marissa L.; Zhai, Xinxin; Ivey, Cesunica; Digby, Kyle; Mulholland, James A.; Russell, Armistead G.

    2016-09-01

    The impacts of emissions sources on air quality in St. Louis, Missouri are assessed for use in acute health effects studies. However, like many locations in the United States, the speciated particulate matter (PM) measurements from regulatory monitoring networks in St. Louis are only available every third day. The power of studies investigating acute health effects of air pollution is reduced when using one-in-three day source impacts compared to daily source impacts. This paper presents a temporal interpolation model to estimate daily speciated PM2.5 mass concentrations and source impact estimates using one-in-three day measurements. The model is used to interpolate 1-in-3 day source impact estimates and to interpolate the 1-in-3 day PM species concentrations prior to source apportionment (SA). Both approaches are compared and evaluated using two years (June 2001-May 2003) of daily data from the St. Louis Midwest Supersite (STL-SS). Data withholding is used to simulate a 1-in-3 day data set from the daily data to evaluate interpolated estimates. After evaluation using the STL-SS data, the model is used to estimate daily source impacts at another site approximately seven kilometers (7 km) northwest of the STL-SS (Blair); results between the sites are compared. For interpolated species concentrations, the model performs better for secondary species (sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, and organic carbon) than for primary species (metals and elemental carbon), likely due to the greater spatial autocorrelation of secondary species. Pearson correlation (R) values for sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, elemental carbon, and organic carbon ranged from 0.61 (elemental carbon, EC2) to 0.97 (sulfate). For trace metals, the R values ranged from 0.31 (Ba) to 0.81 (K). The interpolated source impact estimates also indicated a stronger correlation for secondary sources. Correlations of the secondary source impact estimates based on measurement data and interpolation data ranged from 0.68 to 0

  3. Let it be and keep on going! Acceptance and daily occupational well-being in relation to negative work events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuba, Katharina; Scheibe, Susanne

    2017-01-01

    Negative work events can diminish daily occupational well-being, yet the degree to which they do so depends on the way in which people deal with their emotions. The aim of the current study was to examine the role of acceptance in the link between daily negative work events and occupational well-bei

  4. Let it be and keep on going! Acceptance and daily occupational well-being in relation to negative work events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuba, Katharina; Scheibe, Susanne

    2017-01-01

    Negative work events can diminish daily occupational well-being, yet the degree to which they do so depends on the way in which people deal with their emotions. The aim of the current study was to examine the role of acceptance in the link between daily negative work events and occupational well-bei

  5. Comparison of Two Stochastic Daily Rainfall Models and their Ability to Preserve Multi-year Rainfall Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal Chowdhury, AFM; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George; Kiem, Anthony; Parana Manage, Nadeeka

    2016-04-01

    hierarchical MC model with the semi-parametric model in preserving rainfall variability in daily, monthly, and multi-year scales. To calibrate the parameters of both models and assess their ability to preserve observed statistics, we have used ground based data from 15 raingauge stations around Australia, which consist a wide range of climate zones including coastal, monsoonal, and arid climate characteristics. In preliminary results, both models show comparative performances in preserving the multi-year variability of rainfall depth and occurrence. However, the semi-parametric model shows a tendency of overestimating the mean rainfall depth, while our model shows a tendency of overestimating the number of wet days. We will discuss further the relative merits of the both models for hydrology simulation in the presentation.

  6. Artificial neural network models for prediction of daily fine particulate matter concentrations in Algiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chellali, M R; Abderrahim, H; Hamou, A; Nebatti, A; Janovec, J

    2016-07-01

    Neural network (NN) models were evaluated for the prediction of suspended particulates with aerodynamic diameter less than 10-μm (PM10) concentrations. The model evaluation work considered the sequential hourly concentration time series of PM10, which were measured at El Hamma station in Algiers. Artificial neural network models were developed using a combination of meteorological and time-scale as input variables. The results were rather satisfactory, with values of the coefficient of correlation (R (2)) for independent test sets ranging between 0.60 and 0.85 and values of the index of agreement (IA) between 0.87 and 0.96. In addition, the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), the normalized mean squared error (NMSE), the absolute relative percentage error (ARPE), the fractional bias (FB), and the fractional variance (FS) were calculated to assess the performance of the model. It was seen that the overall performance of model 3 was better than models 1 and 2.

  7. Daily Runoff Simulation at River Network by the WWASS (Watershed Water balance And Stream flow Simulation) Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Hyun Young; Hwang, Cheol Sang; Kang, Seok Man; Lee, Kwang Ya [Rural Development Corp., Seoul (Korea)

    1998-08-31

    When various elements of water balance are displayed at several points of a river network, the runoff amounts at an estuary especially tidal influenced are affected from the elements. This problem can be solved by a model that can generalize and formulate the elements and simulate daily runoff and water requirement. The WWASS model was built using DIROM for the simulation of daily runoff and water requirement, and the water balance elements were modeled to be balanced at the each control point of river network. The model was calibrated, verified and applied to the watershed for the Saemankeum tidal land reclamation development project. It showed that the results from the stream flow simulation at the Mankyung and Dongjin estuary were acceptable for the design of the Saemankeum estuary reservoir. (author). 7 refs., 3 tabs., 8 figs.

  8. A Model for International Relations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Since the end of the Cold War, the new international environment has required a new model of relationship between major countries. The basis of the new relations is to safeguard one's own national interests while respecting the national interests of the other country. The process of establishing such rela-

  9. Relation of ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction to Daily Ambient Temperature and Air Pollutant Levels in a Japanese Nationwide Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaji, Kyohei; Kohsaka, Shun; Morimoto, Takeshi; Fujii, Kenshi; Amano, Tetsuya; Uemura, Shiro; Akasaka, Takashi; Kadota, Kazushige; Nakamura, Masato; Kimura, Takeshi

    2017-03-15

    Effects of daily fluctuation of ambient temperature and concentrations of air pollutants on acute cardiovascular events have not been well studied. From January 2011 to December 2012, a total of 56,863 consecutive ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients who underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention were registered from 929 institutes with median interinstitutional distance of 2.6 km. We constructed generalized linear mixed models in which the presence or absence of patients with STEMI per day per institute was included as a binomial response variable, with daily meteorologic and environmental data obtained from their respective observatories nearest to the institutes (median distance of 9.7 and 5.6 km) as the explanatory variables. Both lower mean temperature and increase in maximum temperature from the previous day were independently associated with the STEMI occurrence throughout the year (odds ratio [OR] 0.925, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.915 to 0.935, per 10°C, p variables. Both the absolute value and relative change in the ambient temperature were associated with the occurrence of STEMI; the associations with the air pollutant levels were less clear after adjustment for these meteorologic variables in Japan.

  10. Deriving a light use efficiency model from eddy covariance flux data for predicting daily gross primary production across biomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, W.; Liu, S.; Zhou, G.; Tieszen, L.L.; Baldocchi, D.; Bernhofer, C.; Gholz, H.; Goldstein, Allen H.; Goulden, M.L.; Hollinger, D.Y.; Hu, Y.; Law, B.E.; Stoy, Paul C.; Vesala, T.; Wofsy, S.C.

    2007-01-01

    The quantitative simulation of gross primary production (GPP) at various spatial and temporal scales has been a major challenge in quantifying the global carbon cycle. We developed a light use efficiency (LUE) daily GPP model from eddy covariance (EC) measurements. The model, called EC-LUE, is driven by only four variables: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), air temperature, and the Bowen ratio of sensible to latent heat flux (used to calculate moisture stress). The EC-LUE model relies on two assumptions: First, that the fraction of absorbed PAR (fPAR) is a linear function of NDVI; Second, that the realized light use efficiency, calculated from a biome-independent invariant potential LUE, is controlled by air temperature or soil moisture, whichever is most limiting. The EC-LUE model was calibrated and validated using 24,349 daily GPP estimates derived from 28 eddy covariance flux towers from the AmeriFlux and EuroFlux networks, covering a variety of forests, grasslands and savannas. The model explained 85% and 77% of the observed variations of daily GPP for all the calibration and validation sites, respectively. A comparison with GPP calculated from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) indicated that the EC-LUE model predicted GPP that better matched tower data across these sites. The realized LUE was predominantly controlled by moisture conditions throughout the growing season, and controlled by temperature only at the beginning and end of the growing season. The EC-LUE model is an alternative approach that makes it possible to map daily GPP over large areas because (1) the potential LUE is invariant across various land cover types and (2) all driving forces of the model can be derived from remote sensing data or existing climate observation networks.

  11. Daily House Price Indices: Construction, Modeling, and Longer-Run Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Patton, Andrew J.; Wang, Wenjing

    We construct daily house price indices for ten major U.S. metropolitan areas. Our calculations are based on a comprehensive database of several million residential property transactions and a standard repeat-sales method that closely mimics the methodology of the popular monthly Case-Shiller hous...

  12. Prioritization of pesticides based on daily dietary exposure potential as determined from the SHEDS model

    Science.gov (United States)

    A major pathway for exposure to many pesticides is through diet. The objectives were to rank pesticides by comparing their calculated daily dietary exposure as determined by EPA's Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) to single pesticides for different age groups ...

  13. Harmful effects behind the daily supplementation of a fixed vegetarian blend in the rat model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonamassa, Barbara; Canistro, Donatella; Sapone, Andrea; Vivarelli, Fabio; Vornoli, Andrea; Longo, Vincenzo; Paolini, Moreno

    2016-11-01

    Fruit and vegetables (FV) have long been considered a panacea against major chronic diseases, including cancer. However, there is no convincing epidemiological, clinical or experimental evidence supporting FV chemopreventive ability. A daily mono-supplementation of lyophilized onion, tomato, peach, black grape or lettuce was compared with the daily combined administration of the same FV (5 a day-like diet). Ten days post-treatment, the phase-I/II xenobiotic metabolizing and antioxidant enzyme activities, protein and mRNA levels were investigated. As a marker of oxidative stress, the level of hydroperoxides was measured in rat serum samples. Here we show that a blend of FV orally administered to rats not only potentially manipulates metabolism but also disrupts systemic oxidative homeostasis. A daily combination of the five servings remarkably down-regulates the catalytic activity, protein and mRNA levels of a cohort of hepatic metabolizing enzymes, suggesting a possible depressed clearance upon exposure to ubiquitous carcinogens. Strikingly, we observed an impairment of antioxidant enzymes with a boost in systemic hydroperoxide levels. Our study identifies new potential factors of cancer risk connected with the persistent consumption of fixed servings of FV, suggesting that dietary guidance should rely on a "daily diversification" of FV. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Daily reference evapotranspiration modeling by using genetic programming approach in the Basque Country (Northern Spain)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shiri, J.; Kisi, O.; Landeras, G.; Lopez, J.J.; Nazemi, A.H.; Stuyt, L.C.P.M.

    2012-01-01

    Evapotranspiration, as a major component of the hydrological cycle, is of importance for water resources management and development, as well as for estimating the water budget of irrigation schemes. This study presents a Gene Expression Programming (GEP) approach, for estimating daily reference evap

  15. Prioritization of pesticides based on daily dietary exposure potential as determined from the SHEDS model

    Science.gov (United States)

    A major pathway for exposure to many pesticides is through diet. The objectives were to rank pesticides by comparing their calculated daily dietary exposure as determined by EPA's Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) to single pesticides for different age groups ...

  16. Daily reference evapotranspiration modeling by using genetic programming approach in the Basque Country (Northern Spain)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shiri, J.; Kisi, O.; Landeras, G.; Lopez, J.J.; Nazemi, A.H.; Stuyt, L.C.P.M.

    2012-01-01

    Evapotranspiration, as a major component of the hydrological cycle, is of importance for water resources management and development, as well as for estimating the water budget of irrigation schemes. This study presents a Gene Expression Programming (GEP) approach, for estimating daily reference

  17. Daily reference evapotranspiration modeling by using genetic programming approach in the Basque Country (Northern Spain)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shiri, J.; Kisi, O.; Landeras, G.; Lopez, J.J.; Nazemi, A.H.; Stuyt, L.C.P.M.

    2012-01-01

    Evapotranspiration, as a major component of the hydrological cycle, is of importance for water resources management and development, as well as for estimating the water budget of irrigation schemes. This study presents a Gene Expression Programming (GEP) approach, for estimating daily reference evap

  18. Sexuality in relation to independence in daily functions among young people with spina bifida living in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoshan, Levana; Ben-Zvi, Dvora; Meyer, Shirley; Katz-Leurer, Michal

    2012-01-01

    To describe the basic knowledge of body anatomy and functioning, and the sexual knowledge of young adults with spina bifida (SB) and to investigate the associations between independence in daily functions and communication skills on the one hand and sexual knowledge and activity on the other among young people with SB. Twenty-five patients with SB over the age of 16 years, who are under follow-up at the Alyn Children's Rehabilitation Hospital in Jerusalem, Israel, were enrolled in the study. Each patient was interviewed individually using the Sexual Knowledge Interview Schedule and the Functional Independence Measure. There were 17 females and eight males aged 16-35 years, eight of the 25 with a lesion level of L2 and above. At the time of the interview three of the participants had a partner (12%) and seven (28%) indicated that they had had intimate sexual relationships. One subject answered correctly on all questions related to body anatomy, and seven answered correctly on all questions related to body part functions. Positive and significant associations were noted between motor abilities, sphincter management and sexual knowledge (r(p) 0.44-0.65). Knowledge of anatomy and function associated positively with sexual knowledge and experience (r(p) 0.48-0.59). Young adults with SB who live in Israel exhibit a relatively low level of sexual experience. Since knowledge is associated with sexuality, it would be reasonable therefore to provide a structured educational program for this group of young adults, targeted to their unique disability. The rehabilitation nurse is in an optimal position to provide such education given her specialized training in sphincter management and her ongoing holistic view of these young patients. © 2012 Association of Rehabilitation Nurses.

  19. Estimating daily surface NO2 concentrations from satellite data - a case study over Hong Kong using land use regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anand, Jasdeep S.; Monks, Paul S.

    2017-07-01

    Land use regression (LUR) models have been used in epidemiology to determine the fine-scale spatial variation in air pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in cities and larger regions. However, they are often limited in their temporal resolution, which may potentially be rectified by employing the synoptic coverage provided by satellite measurements. In this work a mixed-effects LUR model is developed to model daily surface NO2 concentrations over the Hong Kong SAR during the period 2005-2015. In situ measurements from the Hong Kong Air Quality Monitoring Network, along with tropospheric vertical column density (VCD) data from the OMI, GOME-2A, and SCIAMACHY satellite instruments were combined with fine-scale land use parameters to provide the spatiotemporal information necessary to predict daily surface concentrations. Cross-validation with the in situ data shows that the mixed-effects LUR model using OMI data has a high predictive power (adj. R2 = 0. 84), especially when compared with surface concentrations derived using the MACC-II reanalysis model dataset (adj. R2 = 0. 11). Time series analysis shows no statistically significant trend in NO2 concentrations during 2005-2015, despite a reported decline in NOx emissions. This study demonstrates the utility in combining satellite data with LUR models to derive daily maps of ambient surface NO2 for use in exposure studies.

  20. Performance of five surface energy balance models for estimating daily evapotranspiration in high biomass sorghum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagle, Pradeep; Bhattarai, Nishan; Gowda, Prasanna H.; Kakani, Vijaya G.

    2017-06-01

    Robust evapotranspiration (ET) models are required to predict water usage in a variety of terrestrial ecosystems under different geographical and agrometeorological conditions. As a result, several remote sensing-based surface energy balance (SEB) models have been developed to estimate ET over large regions. However, comparison of the performance of several SEB models at the same site is limited. In addition, none of the SEB models have been evaluated for their ability to predict ET in rain-fed high biomass sorghum grown for biofuel production. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of five widely used single-source SEB models, namely Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), Mapping ET with Internalized Calibration (METRIC), Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS), Simplified Surface Energy Balance Index (S-SEBI), and operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop), for estimating ET over a high biomass sorghum field during the 2012 and 2013 growing seasons. The predicted ET values were compared against eddy covariance (EC) measured ET (ETEC) for 19 cloud-free Landsat image. In general, S-SEBI, SEBAL, and SEBS performed reasonably well for the study period, while METRIC and SSEBop performed poorly. All SEB models substantially overestimated ET under extremely dry conditions as they underestimated sensible heat (H) and overestimated latent heat (LE) fluxes under dry conditions during the partitioning of available energy. METRIC, SEBAL, and SEBS overestimated LE regardless of wet or dry periods. Consequently, predicted seasonal cumulative ET by METRIC, SEBAL, and SEBS were higher than seasonal cumulative ETEC in both seasons. In contrast, S-SEBI and SSEBop substantially underestimated ET under too wet conditions, and predicted seasonal cumulative ET by S-SEBI and SSEBop were lower than seasonal cumulative ETEC in the relatively wetter 2013 growing season. Our results indicate the necessity of inclusion of soil moisture or plant water stress

  1. Quantifying the effect of heat stress on daily milk yield and monitoring dynamic changes using an adaptive dynamic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    André, G; Engel, B; Berentsen, P B M; Vellinga, Th V; Lansink, A G J M Oude

    2011-09-01

    Automation and use of robots are increasingly being used within dairy farming and result in large amounts of real time data. This information provides a base for the new management concept of precision livestock farming. From 2003 to 2006, time series of herd mean daily milk yield were collected on 6 experimental research farms in the Netherlands. These time series were analyzed with an adaptive dynamic model following a Bayesian method to quantify the effect of heat stress. The effect of heat stress was quantified in terms of critical temperature above which heat stress occurred, duration of heat stress periods, and resulting loss in milk yield. In addition, dynamic changes in level and trend were monitored, including the estimation of a weekly pattern. Monitoring comprised detection of potential outliers and other deteriorations. The adaptive dynamic model fitted the data well; the root mean squared error of the forecasts ranged from 0.55 to 0.99 kg of milk/d. The percentages of potential outliers and signals for deteriorations ranged from 5.5 to 9.7%. The Bayesian procedure for time series analysis and monitoring provided a useful tool for process control. Online estimates (based on past and present only) and retrospective estimates (determined afterward from all data) of level and trend in daily milk yield showed an almost yearly cycle that was in agreement with the calving pattern: most cows calved in winter and early spring versus summer and autumn. Estimated weekly patterns in terms of weekday effects could be related to specific management actions, such as change of pasture during grazing. For the effect of heat stress, the mean estimated critical temperature above which heat stress was expected was 17.8±0.56°C. The estimated duration of the heat stress periods was 5.5±1.03 d, and the estimated loss was 31.4±12.2 kg of milk/cow per year. Farm-specific estimates are helpful to identify management factors like grazing, housing and feeding, that affect the

  2. The impact of menstrual cycle-related physical symptoms on daily activities and psychological wellness among adolescent girls

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Iersel, K.C. van; Kiesner, J.; Pastore, M.; Scholte, R.H.J.

    2016-01-01

    Associations between perimenstrual physical and psychological symptoms have not been adequately studied among adolescent girls. The purpose of the present study was to test a mediation hypothesis postulating that perimenstrual disengagement from daily activities would mediate the association between

  3. Daily air quality index forecasting with hybrid models: A case in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Suling; Lian, Xiuyuan; Liu, Haixia; Hu, Jianming; Wang, Yuanyuan; Che, Jinxing

    2017-09-19

    Air quality is closely related to quality of life. Air pollution forecasting plays a vital role in air pollution warnings and controlling. However, it is difficult to attain accurate forecasts for air pollution indexes because the original data are non-stationary and chaotic. The existing forecasting methods, such as multiple linear models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector regression (SVR), cannot fully capture the information from series of pollution indexes. Therefore, new effective techniques need to be proposed to forecast air pollution indexes. The main purpose of this research is to develop effective forecasting models for regional air quality indexes (AQI) to address the problems above and enhance forecasting accuracy. Therefore, two hybrid models (EMD-SVR-Hybrid and EMD-IMFs-Hybrid) are proposed to forecast AQI data. The main steps of the EMD-SVR-Hybrid model are as follows: the data preprocessing technique EMD (empirical mode decomposition) is utilized to sift the original AQI data to obtain one group of smoother IMFs (intrinsic mode functions) and a noise series, where the IMFs contain the important information (level, fluctuations and others) from the original AQI series. LS-SVR is applied to forecast the sum of the IMFs, and then, S-ARIMA (seasonal ARIMA) is employed to forecast the residual sequence of LS-SVR. In addition, EMD-IMFs-Hybrid first separately forecasts the IMFs via statistical models and sums the forecasting results of the IMFs as EMD-IMFs. Then, S-ARIMA is employed to forecast the residuals of EMD-IMFs. To certify the proposed hybrid model, AQI data from June 2014 to August 2015 collected from Xingtai in China are utilized as a test case to investigate the empirical research. In terms of some of the forecasting assessment measures, the AQI forecasting results of Xingtai show that the two proposed hybrid models are superior to ARIMA, SVR, GRNN, EMD-GRNN, Wavelet-GRNN and Wavelet-SVR. Therefore, the

  4. Technical note: A mathematical function to predict daily milk yield of dairy cows in relation to the interval between milkings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klopčič, M; Koops, W J; Kuipers, A

    2013-09-01

    The milk production of a dairy cow is characterized by lactation production, which is calculated from daily milk yields (DMY) during lactation. The DMY is calculated from one or more milkings a day collected at the farm. Various milking systems are in use today, resulting in one or many recorded milk yields a day, from which different calculations are used to determine DMY. The primary objective of this study was to develop a mathematical function that described milk production of a dairy cow in relation to the interval between 2 milkings. The function was partly based on the biology of the milk production process. This function, called the 3K-function, was able to predict milk production over an interval of 12h, so DMY was twice this estimate. No external information is needed to incorporate this function in methods to predict DMY. Application of the function on data from different milking systems showed a good fit. This function could be a universal tool to predict DMY for a variety of milking systems, and it seems especially useful for data from robotic milking systems. Further study is needed to evaluate the function under a wide range of circumstances, and to see how it can be incorporated in existing milk recording systems. A secondary objective of using the 3K-function was to compare how much DMY based on different milking systems differed from that based on a twice-a-day milking. Differences were consistent with findings in the literature. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Achieving consistent multiple daily low-dose Bacillus anthracis spore inhalation exposures in the rabbit model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roy E Barnewall

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Repeated low-level exposures to Bacillus anthracis could occur before or after the remediation of an environmental release. This is especially true for persistent agents such as Bacillus anthracis spores, the causative agent of anthrax. Studies were conducted to examine aerosol methods needed for consistent daily low aerosol concentrations to deliver a low-dose (less than 106 colony forming units (CFU of B. anthracis spores and included a pilot feasibility characterization study, acute exposure study, and a multiple fifteen day exposure study. This manuscript focuses on the state-of-the-science aerosol methodologies used to generate and aerosolize consistent daily low aerosol concentrations and resultant low inhalation doses. The pilot feasibility characterization study determined that the aerosol system was consistent and capable of producing very low aerosol concentrations. In the acute, single day exposure experiment, targeted inhaled doses of 1 x 102, 1 x 103, 1 x 104, and 1 x 105 CFU were used. In the multiple daily exposure experiment, rabbits were exposed multiple days to targeted inhaled doses of 1 x 102, 1 x 103, and 1 x 104 CFU. In all studies, targeted inhaled doses remained fairly consistent from rabbit to rabbit and day to day. The aerosol system produced aerosolized spores within the optimal mass median aerodynamic diameter particle size range to reach deep lung alveoli. Consistency of the inhaled dose was aided by monitoring and recording respiratory parameters during the exposure with real-time plethysmography. Overall, the presented results show that the animal aerosol system was stable and highly reproducible between different studies and multiple exposure days.

  6. An evaluation of pain-related anxiety among daily cigarette smokers in terms of negative and positive reinforcement smoking outcome expectancies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Adam; Hogan, Julianna; McLeish, Alison C; Zvolensky, Michael J

    2010-06-01

    The present investigation sought to evaluate the unique explanatory relevance of pain-related anxiety in relation to negative and positive reinforcement smoking outcome expectancies among 135 (40.7% female; M(age) = 26.11, SD = 11.23) adult daily cigarette smokers. As predicted, pain-related anxiety was significantly related to greater expectancies that smoking will decrease negative affect, and lesser expectancies that smoking will result in positive outcomes. The observed effects were evident above and beyond the variance accounted for by gender, current level of non-specific bodily pain, daily cigarette use, relations with non-criterion outcome expectancies, and shared variance with anxiety sensitivity. Results suggest that there may be segments of the smoking population who are at relatively greater risk for certain expectancies for tobacco smoking by virtue of individual differences in pain-related anxiety.

  7. Return to work outcomes of the Redesigning Daily Occupations (ReDO) program for women with stress-related disorders--a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eklund, Mona; Erlandsson, Lena-Karin

    2011-11-01

    Stress-related disorders are a frequent cause for sick leave, with consequences such as great distress and adverse economic effects for the affected person and substantial costs for society. Identifying effective interventions that facilitate return to work is thus important. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the 16-week Redesigning Daily Occupations program as a work rehabilitation method for Swedish women with stress-related disorders. The authors of this study hypothesized that, compared to women who got Care as Usual, 12 months after completed rehabilitation a larger proportion of the Redesigning Daily Occupations women would have returned to work, and they would have less sick leave, perceive less stress, and have greater self-esteem. Forty-two women entered the Redesigning Daily Occupations intervention and a matched comparison group received Care as Usual. The data, collected between 2007 and 2010, consisted of registry information and questionnaires targeting socio-demographics, perceived stress, and self-esteem. The findings partly verified the hypotheses. A larger proportion of the Redesigning Daily Occupations women returned to work and they decreased their sick leave and increased their self-esteem more than the Care as Usual group, but the groups did not differ in stress reduction. Thus, the Redesigning Daily Occupations seems to be a promising work rehabilitation method for women with stress-related disorders.

  8. Simultaneous population pharmacokinetic modelling of darunavir and ritonavir Once daily in HIV-infected patients: evaluation of lower ritonavir dose

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L Dickinson

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of study: Once-daily ritonavir-boosted darunavir (DRV/RTV is a preferred antiretroviral regimen for treatment-naïve patients. Population pharmacokinetic modelling of the interaction between DRV and RTV allows evaluation of alternative dosing strategies, particularly lower RTV doses (e.g. 800/50 mg once daily and assessment of factors that may influence DRV/RTV PK. Methods: Data were pooled from 3 DRV/RTV PK studies. Fifty-one HIV-infected patients (7 female stable on DRV/RTV (800/100 mg or 900/100 mg once daily; n=32 and 19, respectively were included. Median age, weight and baseline CD4 cell count were 39 yr (21–63, 74 kg (57–105 and 500 cells/mm3 (227–1129, respectively; 49 had undetectable viral load. Nonlinear mixed effects modelling (Monolix v.4.1.2 was applied simultaneously to DRV and RTV to determine PK parameters, interindividual variability and residual error. Covariates evaluated included: age, weight, sex and study. The model was validated by simulation and visual predictive check. DRV/RTV 800/50 mg once daily was simulated. Summary of results: RTV and DRV were described by a 1 and 2-compartment model, respectively with first-order absorption and lag-time. A maximum effect model, in which RTV inhibited DRV clearance (CL/F, best described the relationship between the two drugs. A RTV concentration of 0.33 mg/L was associated with 50% maximum inhibition of DRV CL/F with the maximum inhibitory effect fixed at 1. The population CL/F of DRV in the absence of RTV was 13.7L/h. Inclusion of weight on RTV CL/F and volume and age on DRV CL/F and study on DRV CL/F, volume and absorption improved the fit. Based on visual predictive check 93% and 91% of observed RTV and DRV concentrations were within the 95% prediction interval, indicative of an adequate model. Of 1000 simulated DRV troughs, 10% and 0% were below the MEC for treatment-experienced (<0.55 mg/L and naïve patients (<0.055 mg/L, respectively. For DRV/RTV 800/50 mg once

  9. Developing a model for understanding patient collection of observations of daily living: A qualitative meta-synthesis of the Project HealthDesign Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Deborah J; Keller, Sara R; Hayes, Gillian R; Dorr, David A; Ash, Joan S; Sittig, Dean F

    2015-01-01

    We conducted a meta-synthesis of five different studies that developed, tested, and implemented new technologies for the purpose of collecting Observations of Daily Living (ODL). From this synthesis, we developed a model to explain user motivation as it relates to ODL collection. We describe this model that includes six factors that motivate patients' collection of ODL data: usability, illness experience, relevance of ODLs, information technology infrastructure, degree of burden, and emotional activation. We show how these factors can act as barriers or facilitators to the collection of ODL data and how interacting with care professionals and sharing ODL data may also influence ODL collection, health-related awareness, and behavior change. The model we developed and used to explain ODL collection can be helpful to researchers and designers who study and develop new, personal health technologies to empower people to improve their health.

  10. A Count Model to Study the Correlates of 60 Min of Daily Physical Activity in Portuguese Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borges, Alessandra; Gomes, Thayse Natacha; Santos, Daniel; Pereira, Sara; dos Santos, Fernanda K.; Chaves, Raquel; Katzmarzyk, Peter T.; Maia, José

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to present data on Portuguese children (aged 9–11 years) complying with moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) guidelines, and to identify the importance of correlates from multiple domains associated with meeting the guidelines. Physical activity (PA) was objectively assessed by accelerometry throughout seven days on 777 children. A count model using Poisson regression was used to identify the best set of correlates that predicts the variability in meeting the guidelines. Only 3.1% of children met the recommended daily 60 min of MVPA for all seven days of the week. Further, the Cochrane–Armitage chi-square test indicated a linear and negative trend (p < 0.001) from none to all seven days of children complying with the guidelines. The count model explained 22% of the variance in meeting MVPA guidelines daily. Being a girl, having a higher BMI, belonging to families with higher income, sleeping more and taking greater time walking from home to a sporting venue significantly reduced the probability of meeting daily recommended MVPA across the seven days. Furthermore, compared to girls, increasing sleep time in boys increased their chances of compliance with the MVPA recommendations. These results reinforce the relevance of considering different covariates’ roles on PA compliance when designing efficient intervention strategies to promote healthy and active lifestyles in children. PMID:25730296

  11. A Count Model to Study the Correlates of 60 Min of Daily Physical Activity in Portuguese Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra Borges

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to present data on Portuguese children (aged 9–11 years complying with moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA guidelines, and to identify the importance of correlates from multiple domains associated with meeting the guidelines. Physical activity (PA was objectively assessed by accelerometry throughout seven days on 777 children. A count model using Poisson regression was used to identify the best set of correlates that predicts the variability in meeting the guidelines. Only 3.1% of children met the recommended daily 60 min of MVPA for all seven days of the week. Further, the Cochrane–Armitage chi-square test indicated a linear and negative trend (p < 0.001 from none to all seven days of children complying with the guidelines. The count model explained 22% of the variance in meeting MVPA guidelines daily. Being a girl, having a higher BMI, belonging to families with higher income, sleeping more and taking greater time walking from home to a sporting venue significantly reduced the probability of meeting daily recommended MVPA across the seven days. Furthermore, compared to girls, increasing sleep time in boys increased their chances of compliance with the MVPA recommendations. These results reinforce the relevance of considering different covariates’ roles on PA compliance when designing efficient intervention strategies to promote healthy and active lifestyles in children.

  12. Multiple trait model combining random regressions for daily feed intake with single measured performance traits of growing pigs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Künzi Niklaus

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract A random regression model for daily feed intake and a conventional multiple trait animal model for the four traits average daily gain on test (ADG, feed conversion ratio (FCR, carcass lean content and meat quality index were combined to analyse data from 1 449 castrated male Large White pigs performance tested in two French central testing stations in 1997. Group housed pigs fed ad libitum with electronic feed dispensers were tested from 35 to 100 kg live body weight. A quadratic polynomial in days on test was used as a regression function for weekly means of daily feed intake and to escribe its residual variance. The same fixed (batch and random (additive genetic, pen and individual permanent environmental effects were used for regression coefficients of feed intake and single measured traits. Variance components were estimated by means of a Bayesian analysis using Gibbs sampling. Four Gibbs chains were run for 550 000 rounds each, from which 50 000 rounds were discarded from the burn-in period. Estimates of posterior means of covariance matrices were calculated from the remaining two million samples. Low heritabilities of linear and quadratic regression coefficients and their unfavourable genetic correlations with other performance traits reveal that altering the shape of the feed intake curve by direct or indirect selection is difficult.

  13. Late morbidity after treatment of breast cancer in relation to daily activities and quality of life : a systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rietman, J.S.; Dijkstra, P.U.; Hoekstra, H.J.; Eisma, W.H.; Szabo, B.G.; Groothoff, J.W.; Geertzen, J.H.

    Aims: Breast cancer treatment may result in long-term upper limb morbidity: reduced range of motion of the shoulder, muscle weakness of the arm and hand, lymph edema, pain and numbness. Relationship of this late morbidity with activities of daily life (ADL) and quality of life (QOL) is infrequently

  14. Technical note: a mathematical function to predict daily milk yield of dairy cows in relation to the interval between milkings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klopcic, M.; Koops, W.J.; Kuipers, A.

    2013-01-01

    The milk production of a dairy cow is characterized by lactation production, which is calculated from daily milk yields (DMY) during lactation. The DMY is calculated from one or more milkings a day collected at the farm. Various milking systems are in use today, resulting in one or many recorded

  15. Late morbidity after treatment of breast cancer in relation to daily activities and quality of life : a systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rietman, J.S.; Dijkstra, P.U.; Hoekstra, H.J.; Eisma, W.H.; Szabo, B.G.; Groothoff, J.W.; Geertzen, J.H.

    2003-01-01

    Aims: Breast cancer treatment may result in long-term upper limb morbidity: reduced range of motion of the shoulder, muscle weakness of the arm and hand, lymph edema, pain and numbness. Relationship of this late morbidity with activities of daily life (ADL) and quality of life (QOL) is infrequently

  16. Late morbidity after treatment of breast cancer in relation to daily activities and quality of life: a systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rietman, J.S.; Dijkstra, P.U.; Hoekstra, H.J; Eisma, W.H.; Szabo, B.G; Groothoff, J.W.; Geertzen, J.H.B.

    2003-01-01

    Aims: Breast cancer treatment may result in long-term upper limb morbidity: reduced range of motion of the shoulder, muscle weakness of the arm and hand, lymph edema, pain and numbness. Relationship of this late morbidity with activities of daily life (ADL) and quality of life (QOL) is infrequently

  17. Late morbidity after treatment of breast cancer in relation to daily activities and quality of life : a systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rietman, J.S.; Dijkstra, P.U.; Hoekstra, H.J.; Eisma, W.H.; Szabo, B.G.; Groothoff, J.W.; Geertzen, J.H.

    2003-01-01

    Aims: Breast cancer treatment may result in long-term upper limb morbidity: reduced range of motion of the shoulder, muscle weakness of the arm and hand, lymph edema, pain and numbness. Relationship of this late morbidity with activities of daily life (ADL) and quality of life (QOL) is infrequently

  18. Estimation of global daily irradiation in complex topography zones using digital elevation models and meteosat images: Comparison of the results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Durban, M. [Dpto. de Lenguajes y Computacion, Universidad de Almeria, 04120 Almeria (Spain); Zarzalejo, L.F.; Polo, J. [Dpto. de Energia, CIEMAT, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Bosch, J.L.; Rosiek, S.; Batlles, F.J. [Dpto. Fisica Aplicada, Universidad de Almeria, 04120 Almeria (Spain)

    2009-09-15

    The knowledge of the solar irradiation in a certain place is fundamental for the suitable location of solar systems, both thermal and photovoltaic. On the local scale, the topography is the most important modulating factor of the solar irradiation on the surface. In this work the global daily irradiation is estimated concerning various sky conditions, in zones of complex topography. In order to estimate the global daily irradiation we use a methodology based on a Digital Terrain Model (DTM), on one hand making use of pyranometer measurements and on the other hand utilizing satellite images. We underline that DTM application employing pyranometer measurements produces better results than estimation using satellite images, though accuracy of the same order is obtained in both cases for Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Bias Error (MBE). (author)

  19. Genomic prediction and genomic variance partitioning of daily and residual feed intake in pigs using Bayesian Power Lasso models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Do, Duy Ngoc; Janss, L. L. G.; Strathe, Anders Bjerring

    Improvement of feed efficiency is essential in pig breeding and selection for reduced residual feed intake (RFI) is an option. The study applied Bayesian Power LASSO (BPL) models with different power parameter to investigate genetic architecture, to predict genomic breeding values, and to partition...... genomic variance for RFI and daily feed intake (DFI). A total of 1272 Duroc pigs had both genotypic and phenotypic records for these traits. Significant SNPs were detected on chromosome 1 (SSC 1) and SSC 14 for RFI and on SSC 1 for DFI. BPL models had similar accuracy and bias as GBLUP method but use...

  20. Development of temporally refined land-use regression models predicting daily household-level air pollution in a panel study of lung function among asthmatic children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Markey; Macneill, Morgan; Grgicak-Mannion, Alice; Nethery, Elizabeth; Xu, Xiaohong; Dales, Robert; Rasmussen, Pat; Wheeler, Amanda

    2013-01-01

    Regulatory monitoring data and land-use regression (LUR) models have been widely used for estimating individual exposure to ambient air pollution in epidemiologic studies. However, LUR models lack fine-scale temporal resolution for predicting acute exposure and regulatory monitoring provides daily concentrations, but fails to capture spatial variability within urban areas. This study coupled LUR models with continuous regulatory monitoring to predict daily ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) and particulate matter (PM(2.5)) at 50 homes in Windsor, Ontario. We compared predicted versus measured daily outdoor concentrations for 5 days in winter and 5 days in summer at each home. We also examined the implications of using modeled versus measured daily pollutant concentrations to predict daily lung function among asthmatic children living in those homes. Mixed effect analysis suggested that temporally refined LUR models explained a greater proportion of the spatial and temporal variance in daily household-level outdoor NO(2) measurements compared with daily concentrations based on regulatory monitoring. Temporally refined LUR models captured 40% (summer) and 10% (winter) more of the spatial variance compared with regulatory monitoring data. Ambient PM(2.5) showed little spatial variation; therefore, daily PM(2.5) models were similar to regulatory monitoring data in the proportion of variance explained. Furthermore, effect estimates for forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV(1)) and peak expiratory flow (PEF) based on modeled pollutant concentrations were consistent with effects based on household-level measurements for NO(2) and PM(2.5). These results suggest that LUR modeling can be combined with continuous regulatory monitoring data to predict daily household-level exposure to ambient air pollution. Temporally refined LUR models provided a modest improvement in estimating daily household-level NO(2) compared with regulatory monitoring data alone, suggesting that this

  1. Improving daily streamflow forecasts in mountainous Upper Euphrates basin by multi-layer perceptron model with satellite snow products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uysal, Gökçen; Şensoy, Aynur; Şorman, A. Arda

    2016-12-01

    This paper investigates the contribution of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite Snow Cover Area (SCA) product and in-situ snow depth measurements to Artificial Neural Network model (ANN) based daily streamflow forecasting in a mountainous river basin. In order to represent non-linear structure of the snowmelt process, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) Feed-Forward Backpropagation (FFBP) architecture is developed and applied in Upper Euphrates River Basin (10,275 km2) of Turkey where snowmelt constitutes approximately 2/3 of total annual volume of runoff during spring and early summer months. Snowmelt season is evaluated between March and July; 7 years (2002-2008) seasonal daily data are used during training while 3 years (2009-2011) seasonal daily data are split for forecasting. One of the fastest ANN training algorithms, the Levenberg-Marquardt, is used for optimization of the network weights and biases. The consistency of the network is checked with four performance criteria: coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (ME), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). According to the results, SCA observations provide useful information for developing of a neural network model to predict snowmelt runoff, whereas snow depth data alone are not sufficient. The highest performance is experienced when total daily precipitation, average air temperature data are combined with satellite snow cover data. The data preprocessing technique of Discrete Wavelet Analysis (DWA) is coupled with MLP modeling to further improve the runoff peak estimates. As a result, Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency is increased from 0.52 to 0.81 for training and from 0.51 to 0.75 for forecasting. Moreover, the results are compared with that of a conceptual model, Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM), application using SCA as an input. The importance and the main contribution of this study is to use of satellite snow products and data

  2. The Impact of Social Support on the Relation between Stress from Daily Life Issues and Depression among East Asian International Students in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Hong-Ning

    2013-01-01

    Moderation effects of social support on the relation between stress resulting from five daily life issues (i.e., acculturation, second language, academic performance, interpersonal relationships, and financial concerns) and psychological distress (i.e., the level of depression) among China, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan international students…

  3. The Relating Level of Teacher Candidates Based on Scientific Information with Their Daily Lives: A Case of Ataturk and Caucasian Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurt, Murat

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this research is to determine and compare candidate teachers' level of relating scientific information with their daily lives. The teachers were studying in the 1st and 4th classes in Atatürk and Caucasian Universities, Education Faculty, Elementary School Science Teaching Department during the 2012-2013 academic year. The research…

  4. The Impact of Social Support on the Relation between Stress from Daily Life Issues and Depression among East Asian International Students in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Hong-Ning

    2013-01-01

    Moderation effects of social support on the relation between stress resulting from five daily life issues (i.e., acculturation, second language, academic performance, interpersonal relationships, and financial concerns) and psychological distress (i.e., the level of depression) among China, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan international students…

  5. Glenohumeral contact forces and muscle forces evaluated in wheelchair-related activities of daily living in able-bodied subjects versus subjects with paraplegia and tetraplegia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Drongelen, S; van der Woude, LH; Janssen, Thomas W. J.; Angenot, EL; Chadwick, EK; Veeger, DirkJan (H. E. J.)

    Objective: To estimate the differences in glenohumeral contact forces and shoulder muscle forces between able-bodied subjects and subjects with paraplegia and tetraplegia during wheelchair-related activities of daily living (ADLs). Design: Kinematics and external forces were measured during

  6. Stress-related expectations about smoking cessation and future quit attempts and abstinence - a prospective study in daily smokers who wish to quit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skov-Ettrup, Lise Skrubbeltrang; Egan, Kia Kejlskov; Dalum, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Smokers who wish to quit may refrain from doing so if they expect to experience more stress after haven given up. We test if stress-related expectations about smoking cessation are associated with quit attempts and abstinence among smokers who are motivated to quit. The study included 1809 daily ...

  7. Prevention of catheter-related bacteremia with a daily ethanol lock in patients with tunnelled catheters: A randomized, placebo-controlled trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Slobbe (Lennert); J.K. Doorduijn (Jeanette); P.J. Lugtenburg (Pieternella); A.E. Barzouhi (Abdelilah); H. Boersma (Eric); W.B. van Leeuwen (Willem); B.J.A. Rijnders (Bart)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Catheter-related bloodstream infection (CRBSI) results in significant attributable morbidity and mortality. In this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, we studied the efficacy and safety of a daily ethanol lock for the prevention of CRBSI in patients with a tu

  8. Glenohumeral contact forces and muscle forces evaluated in wheelchair-related activities of daily living in able-bodied subjects versus subjects with paraplegia and tetraplegia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Drongelen, S; van der Woude, LH; Janssen, Thomas W. J.; Angenot, EL; Chadwick, EK; Veeger, DirkJan (H. E. J.)

    2005-01-01

    Objective: To estimate the differences in glenohumeral contact forces and shoulder muscle forces between able-bodied subjects and subjects with paraplegia and tetraplegia during wheelchair-related activities of daily living (ADLs). Design: Kinematics and external forces were measured during wheelcha

  9. A prospective, observational, open-label, multicentre study to investigate the daily treatment practice of ranibizumab in patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asten, F. van; Evers-Birkenkamp, K.U.; Lith-Verhoeven, J.J. van; Jong-Hesse, Y. de; Hoppenreijs, V.P.T.; Hommersom, R.F.; Scholten, A.M.; Hoyng, C.B.; Klaver, J.H.

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE: The HELIOS (Health Economics with Lucentis in Observational Settings) study was designed on request of the Dutch Health Authority for an observational study to assess the effectiveness and safety of ranibizumab for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (wet AMD) in daily practice. ME

  10. Validating a model that predicts daily growth and feed quality of New Zealand dairy pastures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodward, S J

    2001-09-01

    The Pasture Quality (PQ) model is a simple, mechanistic, dynamical system model that was designed to capture the essential biological processes in grazed grass-clover pasture, and to be optimised to derive improved grazing strategies for New Zealand dairy farms. While the individual processes represented in the model (photosynthesis, tissue growth, flowering, leaf death, decomposition, worms) were based on experimental data, this did not guarantee that the assembled model would accurately predict the behaviour of the system as a whole (i.e., pasture growth and quality). Validation of the whole model was thus a priority, since any strategy derived from the model could impact a farm business in the order of thousands of dollars per annum if adopted. This paper describes the process of defining performance criteria for the model, obtaining suitable data to test the model, and carrying out the validation analysis. The validation process highlighted a number of weaknesses in the model, which will lead to the model being improved. As a result, the model's utility will be enhanced. Furthermore, validation was found to have an unexpected additional benefit, in that despite the model's poor initial performance, support was generated for the model among field scientists involved in the wider project.

  11. "Let it be and keep on going! Acceptance and daily occupational well-being in relation to negative work events": Correction to Kuba and Scheibe (2017).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Reports an error in "Let It Be and Keep on Going! Acceptance and Daily Occupational Well-Being in Relation to Negative Work Events" by Katharina Kuba and Susanne Scheibe (Journal of Occupational Health Psychology, Advanced Online Publication, Feb 25, 2016, np). In the article, there were errors in the Participants subsection in the Method section. The last three sentences should read "Job tenure ranged from less than 1 year to 32 years, with an average of 8.83 years (SD 7.80). Participants interacted with clients on average 5.44 hr a day (SD 2.41). The mean working time was 7.36 hr per day (SD 1.91)." (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2016-09702-001.) Negative work events can diminish daily occupational well-being, yet the degree to which they do so depends on the way in which people deal with their emotions. The aim of the current study was to examine the role of acceptance in the link between daily negative work events and occupational well-being. We hypothesized that acceptance would be associated with better daily occupational well-being, operationalized as low end-of-day negative emotions and fatigue, and high work engagement. Furthermore, we predicted that acceptance would buffer the adverse impact of negative work events on daily well-being. A microlongitudinal study across 10 work days was carried out with 92 employees of the health care sector, yielding a total of 832 daily observations. As expected, acceptance was associated with lower end-of-day negative emotions and fatigue (though there was no association with work engagement) across the 10-day period. Furthermore, acceptance moderated the effect of negative event occurrence on daily well-being: Highly accepting employees experienced less increase in negative emotions and less reduction in work engagement (though comparable end-of-day fatigue) on days with negative work events, relative to days without negative work events, than did less accepting employees. These

  12. Adjustment of carbon fluxes to light conditions regulates the daily turnover of starch in plants: a computational model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhilko, Alexandra; Flis, Anna; Sulpice, Ronan; Stitt, Mark; Ebenhöh, Oliver

    2014-03-04

    In the light, photosynthesis provides carbon for metabolism and growth. In the dark, plant growth depends on carbon reserves that were accumulated during previous light periods. Many plants accumulate part of their newly-fixed carbon as starch in their leaves in the day and remobilise it to support metabolism and growth at night. The daily rhythms of starch accumulation and degradation are dynamically adjusted to the changing light conditions such that starch is almost but not totally exhausted at dawn. This requires the allocation of a larger proportion of the newly fixed carbon to starch under low carbon conditions, and the use of information about the carbon status at the end of the light period and the length of the night to pace the rate of starch degradation. This regulation occurs in a circadian clock-dependent manner, through unknown mechanisms. We use mathematical modelling to explore possible diurnal mechanisms regulating the starch level. Our model combines the main reactions of carbon fixation, starch and sucrose synthesis, starch degradation and consumption of carbon by sink tissues. To describe the dynamic adjustment of starch to daily conditions, we introduce diurnal regulators of carbon fluxes, which modulate the activities of the key steps of starch metabolism. The sensing of the diurnal conditions is mediated in our model by the timer α and the "dark sensor"β, which integrate daily information about the light conditions and time of the day through the circadian clock. Our data identify the β subunit of SnRK1 kinase as a good candidate for the role of the dark-accumulated component β of our model. The developed novel approach for understanding starch kinetics through diurnal metabolic and circadian sensors allowed us to explain starch time-courses in plants and predict the kinetics of the proposed diurnal regulators under various genetic and environmental perturbations.

  13. An Improved Direction Relation Detection Model for Spatial Objects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FENG Yucai; YI Baolin

    2004-01-01

    Direction is a common spatial concept that is used in our daily life. It is frequently used as a selection condition in spatial queries. As a result, it is important for spatial databases to provide a mechanism for modeling and processing direction queries and reasoning. Depending on the direction relation matrix, an inverted direction relation matrix and the concept of direction pre- dominance are proposed to improve the detection of direction relation between objects. Direction predicates of spatial systems are also extended. These techniques can improve the veracity of direction queries and reasoning. Experiments show excellent efficiency and performance in view of direction queries.

  14. Review of revised Klamath River Total Maximum Daily Load models from Link River Dam to Keno Dam, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rounds, Stewart A.; Sullivan, Annett B.

    2013-01-01

    Flow and water-quality models are being used to support the development of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) plans for the Klamath River downstream of Upper Klamath Lake (UKL) in south-central Oregon. For riverine reaches, the RMA-2 and RMA-11 models were used, whereas the CE-QUAL-W2 model was used to simulate pooled reaches. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was asked to review the most upstream of these models, from Link River Dam at the outlet of UKL downstream through the first pooled reach of the Klamath River from Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam. Previous versions of these models were reviewed in 2009 by USGS. Since that time, important revisions were made to correct several problems and address other issues. This review documents an assessment of the revised models, with emphasis on the model revisions and any remaining issues. The primary focus of this review is the 19.7-mile Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam reach of the Klamath River that was simulated with the CE-QUAL-W2 model. Water spends far more time in the Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam reach than in the 1-mile Link River reach that connects UKL to the Klamath River, and most of the critical reactions affecting water quality upstream of Keno Dam occur in that pooled reach. This model review includes assessments of years 2000 and 2002 current conditions scenarios, which were used to calibrate the model, as well as a natural conditions scenario that was used as the reference condition for the TMDL and was based on the 2000 flow conditions. The natural conditions scenario included the removal of Keno Dam, restoration of the Keno reef (a shallow spot that was removed when the dam was built), removal of all point-source inputs, and derivation of upstream boundary water-quality inputs from a previously developed UKL TMDL model. This review examined the details of the models, including model algorithms, parameter values, and boundary conditions; the review did not assess the draft Klamath River TMDL or the TMDL allocations

  15. Documentation of a daily mean stream temperature module—An enhancement to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Michael J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Regan, R. Steven; Atkinson, R. Dwight

    2017-09-15

    A module for simulation of daily mean water temperature in a network of stream segments has been developed as an enhancement to the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). This new module is based on the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Stream Network Temperature model, a mechanistic, one-dimensional heat transport model. The new module is integrated in PRMS. Stream-water temperature simulation is activated by selection of the appropriate input flags in the PRMS Control File and by providing the necessary additional inputs in standard PRMS input files.This report includes a comprehensive discussion of the methods relevant to the stream temperature calculations and detailed instructions for model input preparation.

  16. Seasonal & Daily Amazon Column CO2 & CO Observations from Ground & Space Used to Evaluate Tropical Ecosystem Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubey, M. K.; Parker, H. A.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wunch, D.; Jacobson, A. R.; Kawa, S. R.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Basu, S.; O'Dell, C.; Frankenberg, C.; Michalak, A. M.; Baker, D. F.; Christofferson, B.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Saleska, S. R.; De Araujo, A. C.; Miller, J. B.

    2016-12-01

    The Amazon basin stores 150-200 PgC, exchanges 18 PgC with the atmosphere every year and has taken up 0.42-0.65 PgC/y over the past two decades. Despite its global significance, the response of the tropical carbon cycle to climate variability and change is ill constrained as evidenced by the large negative and positive feedbacks in future climate simulations. The complex interplay of radiation, water and ecosystem phenology remains unresolved in current tropical ecosystem models. We use high frequency regional scale TCCON observations of column CO2, CO and CH4 near Manaus, Brazil that began in October 2014 to understand the aforementioned interplay of processes in regulating biosphere-atmosphere exchange. We observe a robust daily column CO2 uptake of about 2 ppm (4 ppm to 0.5 ppm) over 8 hours and evaluate how it changes as we transition to the dry season. Back-trajectory calculations show that the daily CO2 uptake footprint is terrestrial and influenced by the heterogeneity of the Amazon rain forests. The column CO falls from above 120 ppb to below 80 ppb as we transition from the biomass burning to wet seasons. The daily mean column CO2 rises by 3 ppm from October through June. Removal of biomass burning, secular CO2 increase and variations from transport (by Carbon tracker simulations) implies an increase of 2.3 ppm results from tropical biospheric processes (respiration and photosynthesis). This is consistent with ground-based remote sensing and eddy flux observations that indicate that leaf development and demography drives the tropical carbon cycle in regions that are not water limited and is not considered in current models. We compare our observations with output from 7 CO2 inversion transport models with assimilated meteorology and find that while 5 models reproduce the CO2 seasonal cycle all of them under predict the daily drawdown of CO2 by a factor of 3. This indicates that the CO2 flux partitioning between photosynthesis and respiration is incorrect

  17. Effects of Model Resolution and Subgrid-Scale Physics on the Simulation of Daily Precipitation in the Continental United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duffy, P B; Iorio, J P; Govindasamy, B; Thompson, S L; Khairoutdinov, M; Randall, D

    2004-07-28

    We analyze simulations of the global climate performed at a range of spatial resolutions to assess the effects of horizontal spatial resolution on the ability to simulate precipitation in the continental United States. The model investigated is the CCM3 general circulation model. We also preliminarily assess the effect of replacing cloud and convective parameterizations in a coarse-resolution (T42) model with an embedded cloud-system resolving model (CSRM). We examine both spatial patterns of seasonal-mean precipitation and daily-timescale temporal variability of precipitation in the continental United States. For DJF and SON, high-resolution simulations produce spatial patterns of seasonal-mean precipitation that agree more closely with observed precipitation patterns than do results from the same model (CCM3) at coarse resolution. However, in JJA and MAM, there is little improvement in spatial patterns of seasonal-mean precipitation with increasing resolution, particularly in the Southeast. This is owed to the dominance of convective (i.e., parameterized) precipitation in these two seasons. We further find that higher-resolution simulations have more realistic daily precipitation statistics. In particular, the well-known tendency at coarse resolution to have too many days with weak precipitation and not enough intense precipitation is partially eliminated in higher-resolution simulations. However, even at the highest resolution examined here (T239), the simulated intensity of the mean and of high-percentile daily precipitation amounts is too low. This is especially true in the Southeast, where the most extreme events occur. A new GCM, in which a cloud-resolving model (CSRM) is embedded in each grid cell and replaces convective and stratiform cloud parameterizations, solves this problem, and actually produces too much precipitation in the form of extreme events. However, in contrast to high-resolution versions of CCM3, this model produces little improvement in

  18. HIV/AIDS-related attitudes and oral impacts on daily performances: a cross-sectional study of Sudanese adult dental patients

    OpenAIRE

    Nasir, Elwalid Fadul; Marthinussen, Mihaela C.; Åstrøm, Anne Nordrehaug

    2013-01-01

    Background Few studies have investigated the relationships between HIV-related knowledge, fear of contagion in dental environments and Oral Impacts on Daily Performance (OIDP) among dental patients. Our objectives were to investigate the associations between HIV-related knowledge and fear of contagion in dental environments and OIDP among dental patients, and to evaluate whether those associations were modified by the frequency of dental service attendance.Methods A total of 1262 patients (me...

  19. Genomic prediction and genomic variance partitioning of daily and residual feed intake in pigs using Bayesian Power Lasso models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Do, Duy Ngoc; Janss, Luc L G; Strathe, Anders B

    Improvement of feed efficiency is essential in pig breeding and selection for reduced residual feed intake (RFI) is an option. The study applied Bayesian Power LASSO (BPL) models with different power parameter to investigate genetic architecture, to predict genomic breeding values, and to partition...... genomic variance for RFI and daily feed intake (DFI). A total of 1272 Duroc pigs had both genotypic and phenotypic records for these traits. Significant SNPs were detected on chromosome 1 (SSC 1) and SSC 14 for RFI and on SSC 1 for DFI. BPL had similar accuracy and bias as GBLUP but power parameters had...

  20. Genetic Analysis of Daily Maximum Milking Speed by a Random Walk Model in Dairy Cows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karacaören, Burak; Janss, Luc; Kadarmideen, Haja

    Data were obtained from dairy cows stationed at research farm ETH Zurich for maximum milking speed. The main aims of this paper are a) to evaluate if the Wood curve is suitable to model mean lactation curve b) to predict longitudinal breeding values by random regression and random walk models...

  1. Forecasting Daily Time Series using Periodic Unobserved Components Time Series Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius

    2004-01-01

    We explore a periodic analysis in the context of unobserved components time series models that decompose time series into components of interest such as trend and seasonal. Periodic time series models allow dynamic characteristics to depend on the period of the year, month, week or day. In the stand

  2. Performance of five surface energy balance models for estimatng daily evapotranspiration in high biomass sorghum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robust evapotranspiration (ET) models are required to predict water usage in a variety of terrestrial ecosystems under different geographical and agrometeorological conditions. As a result, numerous remote sensing-based ET models have been developed to estimate large-scale ET based on the surface en...

  3. Forecasting Daily Time Series using Periodic Unobserved Components Time Series Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius

    2004-01-01

    We explore a periodic analysis in the context of unobserved components time series models that decompose time series into components of interest such as trend and seasonal. Periodic time series models allow dynamic characteristics to depend on the period of the year, month, week or day. In the

  4. Models for S&P500 Dynamics: Evidence from Realized Volatility, Daily Returns, and Option Prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Mimouni, Karim

    in the search for alternative specifications. We then estimate the models using maximum likelihood on S&P500 returns. Finally, we employ nonlinear least squares on a panel of option data. In comparison with earlier studies that explicitly solve the filtering problem, we analyze a more comprehensive option data...... set. The scope of our analysis is feasible because of our use of the particle filter. The three sources of data we employ all point to the same conclusion: the SQR model is misspecified. Overall, the best of the alternative volatility specifications is a model with linear rather than square root...... diffusion for variance which we refer to as the VAR model. This model captures the stylized facts in realized volatilities, it performs well in fitting various samples of index returns, and it has the lowest option implied volatility mean squared errors in- and out-of-sample....

  5. Simulation of daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations within the Cedar River Basin, Iowa, using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Daniel E.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, conducted a study to examine techniques for estimation of daily streamflows using hydrological models and statistical methods. This report focuses on the use of a hydrologic model, the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, to estimate daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, physically based, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on surface-water runoff and general basin hydrology. The Cedar River Basin was selected to construct a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model that simulates the period from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010. The calibration period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004, and the validation periods were from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010 and January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A Geographic Information System tool was used to delineate the Cedar River Basin and subbasins for the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and to derive parameters based on the physical geographical features. Calibration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was completed using a U.S. Geological Survey calibration software tool. The main objective of the calibration was to match the daily streamflow simulated by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model with streamflow measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. The Cedar River Basin daily streamflow model performed with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.82 to 0.33 during the calibration period, and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.77 to -0.04 during the validation period. The Cedar River Basin model is meeting the criteria of greater than 0.50 Nash-Sutcliffe and is a good fit for streamflow conditions for the calibration period at all but one location, Austin, Minnesota

  6. Variations in Regional Mean Daily Precipitation Extremes and Related Circulation Anomalies over Central China During Boreal Summer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    柯丹; 管兆勇

    2014-01-01

    The variations of regional mean daily precipitation extreme (RMDPE) events in central China and associated circulation anomalies during June, July, and August (JJA) of 1961-2010 are investigated by using daily in-situ precipitation observations and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The precipitation data were collected at 239 state-level stations distributed throughout the provinces of Henan, Hubei, and Hunan. During 1961-2010, the 99th percentile threshold for RMDPE is 23.585 mm day-1. The number of RMDPE events varies on both interannual and interdecadal timescales, and increases significantly after the mid 1980s. The RMDPE events happen most frequently between late June and mid July, and are generally associated with anomalous baroclinic tropospheric circulations. The supply of moisture to the southern part of central China comes in a stepping way from the outer-region of an abnormal anticyclone over the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea. Fluxes of wave activity generated over the northeastern Tibetan Plateau converge over central China, which favors the genesis and maintenance of wave disturbances over the region. RMDPE events typically occur in tandem with a strong heating gradient formed by net heating in central China and the large-scale net cooling in the surrounding area. The occurrence of RMDPE events over central China is tied to anomalous local cyclonic circulations, topographic forcing over the northeast Tibetan Plateau, and anomalous gradients of diabatic heating between central China and the surrounding areas.

  7. Reliability and Stability of VLBI-Derived Sub-Daily EOP Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artz, Thomas; Boeckmann, Sarah; Jensen, Laura; Nothnagel, Axel; Steigenberger, Peter

    2010-01-01

    Recent investigations have shown significant shortcomings in the model which is proposed by the IERS to account for the variations in the Earth s rotation with periods around one day and less. To overcome this, an empirical model can be estimated more or less directly from the observations of space geodetic techniques. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the quality and reliability of such a model based on VLBI observations. Therefore, the impact of the estimation method and the analysis options as well as the temporal stability are investigated. It turned out that, in order to provide a realistic accuracy measure of the model coefficients, the formal errors should be inflated by a factor of three. This coincides with the noise floor and the repeatability of the model coefficients and it captures almost all of the differences that are caused by different estimation techniques. The impact of analysis options is small but significant when changing troposphere parameterization or including harmonic station position variations.

  8. A long-term/short-term model for daily electricity prices with dynamic volatility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schlueter, Stephan

    2010-09-15

    In this paper we introduce a new stochastic long-term/short-term model for short-term electricity prices, and apply it to four major European indices, namely to the German, Dutch, UK and Nordic one. We give evidence that all time series contain certain periodic (mostly annual) patterns, and show how to use the wavelet transform, a tool of multiresolution analysis, for filtering purpose. The wavelet transform is also applied to separate the long-term trend from the short-term oscillation in the seasonal-adjusted log-prices. In all time series we find evidence for dynamic volatility, which we incorporate by using a bivariate GARCH model with constant correlation. Eventually we fit various models from the existing literature to the data, and come to the conclusion that our approach performs best. For the error distribution, the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution shows the best fit. (author)

  9. Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Jing-Cheng; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Yuefei; Zhang, Hua; Li, Zhong; Chen, Qiuwen

    2015-08-15

    Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications.

  10. Regression models for air pollution and daily mortality: analysis of data from Birmingham, Alabama

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, R.L. [University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States). Dept. of Statistics; Davis, J.M. [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC (United States). Dept. of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences; Sacks, J. [National Institute of Statistical Sciences, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Speckman, P. [University of Missouri, Columbia, MO (United States). Dept. of Statistics; Styer, P.

    2000-11-01

    In recent years, a very large literature has built up on the human health effects of air pollution. Many studies have been based on time series analyses in which daily mortality counts, or some other measure such as hospital admissions, have been decomposed through regression analysis into contributions based on long-term trend and seasonality, meteorological effects, and air pollution. There has been a particular focus on particulate air pollution represented by PM{sub 10} (particulate matter of aerodynamic diameter 10 {mu}m or less), though in recent years more attention has been given to very small particles of diameter 2.5 {mu}m or less. Most of the existing data studies, however, are based on PM{sub 10} because of the wide availability of monitoring data for this variable. The persistence of the resulting effects across many different studies is widely cited as evidence that this is not mere statistical association, but indeed establishes a causal relationship. These studies have been cited by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) as justification for a tightening on particulate matter standards in the 1997 revision of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS), which is the basis for air pollution regulation in the United States. The purpose of the present paper is to propose a systematic approach to the regression analyses that are central to this kind of research. We argue that the results may depend on a number of ad hoc features of the analysis, including which meteorological variables to adjust for, and the manner in which different lagged values of particulate matter are combined into a single 'exposure measure'. We also examine the question of whether the effects are linear or nonlinear, with particular attention to the possibility of a 'threshold effect', i.e. that significant effects occur only above some threshold. These points are illustrated with a data set from Birmingham, Alabama, first cited by

  11. Modelling wet and dry spells for daily rainfall data series: an application to irrigation management in North-West Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraris, Stefano; Agnese, Carmelo; Baiamonte, Giorgio; Cat Berro, Daniele; Mercalli, Luca

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall time variability is relevant for agricultural production. The daily time scale is often used in modelling crop and soil water balance. In this work a novel statistical analysis of wet and dry spells is presented, together with an application in an Italian area characterised by a relevant climate spatial variability, due to the presence of both high mountains (e.g.: Mont Blanc) and of the Mediterranean Sea. Statistical analysis of the sequences of rainy days, wet spells (WS), and that of no-rainy days, dry spells (DS), could be carried out separately (as widely applied in the past) or jointly, by introducing the inter-arrival time (IT), representing the time elapsed between two subsequent rainy days. Investigating on daily rainfall data series recorded in Sicily, Agnese et al. (2014) found that IT statistics can be described by the 3-parameter Lerch distribution; in turn, WS and DS distributions can be easily derived from IT distribution. Alternatively, the knowledge of both WS and DS distributions allow deriving IT distribution; in this case, WScan be described by the well-accepted geometric distribution, whereas the 2-parameter polylogarithm distribution can be used for DS, as recently suggested (Agnese et al., 2012) in place of the previously used 1-parameter logarithmic distribution (Chatfield, 1966). In this work, by using some daily rainfall data series recorded in Alpine and Sub-Alpine Areas, the equivalence between the above-mentioned approaches is showed. Furthermore, some interesting relationships between respective parameters are also illustrated. A simple soil water model is then used, using this rainfall statistical model, in order to evaluate the irrigation efficiency as a consequence of variations in the timing of surface irrigation, following the approach described in the paper of Canone et al. (2015). Agnese C., Baiamonte G., Cammalleri C., Cat Berro D., Ferraris S., Mercalli L. (2012). "Statistical analysis of inter-arrival times of

  12. A Comparison of Three Models to Predict Liquidity Flows between Banks Based on Daily Payments Transactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Triepels, Ron; Daniels, Hennie

    2016-01-01

    The analysis of payment data has become an important task for operators and overseers of financial market infrastructures. Payment data provide an accurate description of how banks manage their liquidity over time. In this paper we compare three models to predict future liquidity flows from payment

  13. A population based statistical model for daily geometric variations in the thorax.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szeto, Yenny Z; Witte, Marnix G; van Herk, Marcel; Sonke, Jan-Jakob

    2017-04-01

    To develop a population based statistical model of the systematic interfraction geometric variations between the planning CT and first treatment week of lung cancer patients for inclusion as uncertainty term in future probabilistic planning. Deformable image registrations between the planning CT and first week CBCTs of 235 lung cancer patients were used to generate deformation vector fields (DVFs) representing the geometric variations of lung cancer patients. Using a second deformable registration step, the average DVF per patient was mapped to an average patient CT. Subsequently, the dominant modes of systematic geometric variations were extracted using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). For evaluation a leave-one-out cross-validation was performed. The first three PCA components mainly described cranial-caudal, anterior-posterior, and left-right variations, respectively. Fifty and 112 components were needed to describe correspondingly 75% and 90% of the variance. An overall systematic variation of 3.6mm SD was observed and could be described with an accuracy of about 1.0mm with the PCA model. A PCA based model for systematic geometric variations in the thorax was developed, and its accuracy determined. Such a model can serve as a basis for probability based treatment planning in lung cancer patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Models for S&P500 Dynamics: Evidence from Realized Volatility, Daily Returns, and Option Prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Mimouni, Karim

    in the search for alternative specifications. We then estimate the models using maximum likelihood on S&P500 returns. Finally, we employ nonlinear least squares on a panel of option data. In comparison with earlier studies that explicitly solve the filtering problem, we analyze a more comprehensive option data...

  15. Modeling daily flowering probabilities: expected impact of climate change on Japanese cherry phenology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Jenica M; Terres, Maria A; Katsuki, Toshio; Iwamoto, Kojiro; Kobori, Hiromi; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi; Primack, Richard B; Wilson, Adam M; Gelfand, Alan; Silander, John A

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the drivers of phenological events is vital for forecasting species' responses to climate change. We developed flexible Bayesian survival regression models to assess a 29-year, individual-level time series of flowering phenology from four taxa of Japanese cherry trees (Prunus spachiana, Prunus × yedoensis, Prunus jamasakura, and Prunus lannesiana), from the Tama Forest Cherry Preservation Garden in Hachioji, Japan. Our modeling framework used time-varying (chill and heat units) and time-invariant (slope, aspect, and elevation) factors. We found limited differences among taxa in sensitivity to chill, but earlier flowering taxa, such as P. spachiana, were more sensitive to heat than later flowering taxa, such as P. lannesiana. Using an ensemble of three downscaled regional climate models under the A1B emissions scenario, we projected shifts in flowering timing by 2100. Projections suggest that each taxa will flower about 30 days earlier on average by 2100 with 2-6 days greater uncertainty around the species mean flowering date. Dramatic shifts in the flowering times of cherry trees may have implications for economically important cultural festivals in Japan and East Asia. The survival models used here provide a mechanistic modeling approach and are broadly applicable to any time-to-event phenological data, such as plant leafing, bird arrival time, and insect emergence. The ability to explicitly quantify uncertainty, examine phenological responses on a fine time scale, and incorporate conditions leading up to an event may provide future insight into phenologically driven changes in carbon balance and ecological mismatches of plants and pollinators in natural populations and horticultural crops.

  16. Assistive devices in activities of daily living used by persons with age-related macular degeneration: a population study of 85-year-olds living at home.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahlin Ivanoff, S; Sonn, U

    2005-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the overall use of assistive devices among persons with age-related macular degeneration (ARMD) and how it is related to dependence in daily activities. This was a retrospective, descriptive, cross-sectional population study of 85-year-olds. The most common category of assistive devices was bathing devices followed by mobility devices. The overall use of assistive devices was 82%, and around 80% of the device users were independent in activities of daily living. They were multiple device users (57%) and used more mobility devices and personal assistance in mobility. In conclusion, the ARMD group comprises very frequent users of assistive devices and uses assistive devices to remain independent. This implies that health services should provide assistive devices at an early stage in the disablement process to avoid the development of dependence and should consider the likelihood of multiple health problems when assessing the needs of assistive devices among persons with ARMD.

  17. Beneficial Effect of Brewers' Yeast Extract on Daily Activity in a Murine Model of Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takashi Takahashi

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to assess the effect of Brewers' yeast extract (BYE on daily activity in a mouse model of chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS. CFS was induced by repeated injection of Brucella abortus (BA antigen every 2 weeks. BYE was orally administered to mice in a dose of 2 g per kg per day for 2 weeks before injecting BA and for 4 weeks thereafter. We evaluated daily running activity in mice receiving BYE as compared with that in untreated mice. Weekly variation of body weight (BW and survival in both groups was monitored during the observation period. Spleen weight (SW, SW/BW ratio, percent splenic follicular area and expression levels of interferon-γ (IFN-γ and interleukin-10 (IL-10 mRNA in spleen were determined in both groups at the time of sacrifice. The daily activity during 2 weeks after the second BA injection was significantly higher in the treated group than in the control. There was no difference in BW between both groups through the experimental course. Two mice in the control died 2 and 7 days after the second injection, whereas no mice in the treated group died. Significantly decreased SW and SW/BW ratio were observed in the treated mice together with elevation of splenic follicular area. There were suppressed IFN-γ and IL-10 mRNA levels in spleens from the treated mice. Our results suggest that BYE might have a protective effect on the marked reduction in activity following repeated BA injection via normalization of host immune responses.

  18. Beneficial effect of brewers' yeast extract on daily activity in a murine model of chronic fatigue syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Takashi; Yu, Fei; Zhu, Shi-Jie; Moriya, Junji; Sumino, Hiroyuki; Morimoto, Shigeto; Yamaguchi, Nobuo; Kanda, Tsugiyasu

    2006-03-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the effect of Brewers' yeast extract (BYE) on daily activity in a mouse model of chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS). CFS was induced by repeated injection of Brucella abortus (BA) antigen every 2 weeks. BYE was orally administered to mice in a dose of 2 g per kg per day for 2 weeks before injecting BA and for 4 weeks thereafter. We evaluated daily running activity in mice receiving BYE as compared with that in untreated mice. Weekly variation of body weight (BW) and survival in both groups was monitored during the observation period. Spleen weight (SW), SW/BW ratio, percent splenic follicular area and expression levels of interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma) and interleukin-10 (IL-10) mRNA in spleen were determined in both groups at the time of sacrifice. The daily activity during 2 weeks after the second BA injection was significantly higher in the treated group than in the control. There was no difference in BW between both groups through the experimental course. Two mice in the control died 2 and 7 days after the second injection, whereas no mice in the treated group died. Significantly decreased SW and SW/BW ratio were observed in the treated mice together with elevation of splenic follicular area. There were suppressed IFN-gamma and IL-10 mRNA levels in spleens from the treated mice. Our results suggest that BYE might have a protective effect on the marked reduction in activity following repeated BA injection via normalization of host immune responses.

  19. Video Modeling for Teaching Daily Living Skills to Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder: A Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meister, Christine; Salls, Joyce

    2015-01-01

    This pilot study investigated the efficacy of point-of-view video modeling as an intervention strategy to improve self-help skills in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). A single-subject A-B design was implemented with eight school-aged children ages 7.5 years to 13.5 years. Six of the students participated in general education classes…

  20. A statistical scheme to forecast the daily lightning threat over southern Africa using the Unified Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gijben, Morné; Dyson, Liesl L.; Loots, Mattheus T.

    2017-09-01

    Cloud-to-ground lightning data from the Southern Africa Lightning Detection Network and numerical weather prediction model parameters from the Unified Model are used to develop a lightning threat index (LTI) for South Africa. The aim is to predict lightning for austral summer days (September to February) by means of a statistical approach. The austral summer months are divided into spring and summer seasons and analysed separately. Stepwise logistic regression techniques are used to select the most appropriate model parameters to predict lightning. These parameters are then utilized in a rare-event logistic regression analysis to produce equations for the LTI that predicts the probability of the occurrence of lightning. Results show that LTI forecasts have a high sensitivity and specificity for spring and summer. The LTI is less reliable during spring, since it over-forecasts the occurrence of lightning. However, during summer, the LTI forecast is reliable, only slightly over-forecasting lightning activity. The LTI produces sharp forecasts during spring and summer. These results show that the LTI will be useful early in the morning in areas where lightning can be expected during the day.

  1. An operational model to estimate hourly and daily crop evapotranspiration in hilly terrain: validation on wheat and oat crops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rana, Gianfranco; Katerji, Nader; Ferrara, Rossana M.; Martinelli, Nicola

    2011-03-01

    In this paper, we present an operational model to estimate the actual evapotranspiration (ET) of crops cultivated on hilly terrains. This new model has the following three characteristics: (1) ET modelling is based on a Penman-Monteith (PM) type equation (Monteith 1965) where canopy resistance is simulated by following an approach already illustrated by Katerji and Perrier (Agronomie 3(6):513-521, 1983); (2) the estimation of ET, by means of the PM equation, is made by using meteorological variables simulated on sloped sites as input; (3) these variables are simulated by using simple relationships linking the variables measured at a reference site on plane to the topographic characteristics of the site (slope, orientation, altitude as difference between reference, and sloped sites). This approach presents two advantages if compared with previously proposed models: Not only computation steps are greatly simplified but also error sources due to the simulation of climatic variables in sloped sites and the ET estimation are well distinguished. This model was validated at hourly and daily scales at four sites cultivated with wheat and oats offering a wide range of slope and orientation values: a reference site on plane, site 1 (9° sloping, NW orientation, 7 m from the reference site in plane), site 2 (6°, SE, 12 m) and site 3 (1°, SE, 18 m). At hourly scale, the new model performed well at all sites studied. The observed slope of the linear relationships between estimated and measured ET values ranged between 0.93 and 1.03, with coefficients of determination, r 2, between 0.80 and 0.98. At daily scale, the slopes of the linear relationships between measured and estimated ET for the sites on plane and the sloped sites were practically the same (0.98 ± 0.01); however, the coefficient of determination r 2 observed in the site on plane was clearly greater (0.98) than that observed in the sloped sites (0.83). The presented analysis does not show any significant

  2. Daily Democracy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larson, Karin; Giro, Francesca; Graham, Todd

    media are fostering a more ‘connected’ and reciprocal relationship between citizens and politicians. Throughout many Western democracies, research points to the in- creasing valorisation of Twitter as an informal, intimate and open space for (ev- eryday) political communication, raising important......, it ignores the communicative mundaneness of daily democracy. This paper accordingly in- vestigates and compares the ways in which members of parliament (MPs) in three European countries – Italy, Sweden and United Kingdom – utilize Twit- ter during off-peak periods, focusing on the extent to which social...... basic patterns of usage. Second, we analyse the types of tweets (e.g. retweet, @-reply); third, their function (e.g. self-promotion, critiquing, requesting input/support); fourth, interaction (whom MPs communicate with). Finally, we examine the content (the political/personal topics tweeted about...

  3. A model for developing job rotation schedules that eliminate sequential high workloads and minimize between-worker variability in cumulative daily workloads: Application to automotive assembly lines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Sang-Young; Ko, Jeonghan; Jung, Myung-Chul

    2016-07-01

    The aim of study is to suggest a job rotation schedule by developing a mathematical model in order to reduce cumulative workload from the successive use of the same body region. Workload assessment using rapid entire body assessment (REBA) was performed for the model in three automotive assembly lines of chassis, trim, and finishing to identify which body part exposed to relatively high workloads at workstations. The workloads were incorporated to the model to develop a job rotation schedule. The proposed schedules prevent the exposure to high workloads successively on the same body region and minimized between-worker variance in cumulative daily workload. Whereas some of workers were successively assigned to high workload workstation under no job rotation and serial job rotation. This model would help to reduce the potential for work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) without additional cost for engineering work, although it may need more computational time and relative complex job rotation sequences. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  4. Work outcomes and their predictors in the Redesigning Daily Occupations (ReDO) rehabilitation programme for women with stress-related disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eklund, Mona; Wästberg, Birgitta A; Erlandsson, Lena-Karin

    2013-04-01

    Previous research has shown that the Redesigning Daily Occupations programme reduced the degree of sick leave and increased return to work rates among women on sick leave for stress-related disorders when compared with "care as usual". To further investigate the Redesigning Daily Occupations intervention, this study explored changes in the work situation from baseline to a 12-month follow-up in the Redesigning Daily Occupations group compared with the "care as usual" group and analysed any predictors of change. A matched-control design was used and 84 women were recruited. Objective (return to work and sick leave) and subjective work outcomes (perceptions of the worker role and the work environment) were explored. Potential predictors were clinical and demographic variables and an anxiety-depression factor. In both groups, large positive effect sizes from baseline to follow-up were found regarding the objective outcomes, a moderate positive effect size was found for perceived work environment, whereas perceived worker role remained unaffected. Previous work rehabilitation predicted objective work outcomes in both groups. Higher education and older age were predictors of subjective outcomes in the Redesigning Daily Occupations group, whereas a more severe anxiety-depression rating was negative for work environment ratings in the "care as usual" group. Return to work seemed possible without a change in the women's perceptions of the worker role; rather they renegotiated their view of the work environment. The Redesigning Daily Occupations programme was found to be promising, with a positive effect on return to work and sick leave reduction. It seemed more suitable for the higher educated and older women. © 2012 The Authors Australian Occupational Therapy Journal © 2012 Occupational Therapy Australia.

  5. DAILY MEAL FREQUENCY OF SECONDARY SCHOOL STUDENTS FROM LJUBLJANA IN RELATION TO SOME OF THEIR OTHER NUTRITIONAL AND LIFE-STYLE CHARACTERISTICS AND BODY MASS INDEX – PRELIMINARY RESULTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mojca Gabrijelčič-Blenkuš

    2001-05-01

    Full Text Available Background. The recommended number of daily meals is three to five. The aim of this study was to establish the number of meals, daily consumed by secondary school students from Ljubljana, and the relationship with nutritional and other habits, including bad habits, demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the secondary school students and their body mass index.Methods. In 1999, an cross-section epidemiological study was performed on a proportional sample of 296 pupils attending the third class of Ljubljana secondary schools. The applied dietary data collection methods were the survey and the 24-hour dietary recall. The body mass index was calculated on the basis of the measured body height and body mass values. The Chi-square test, t-test, variance analysis and the multivariant linear regression method were used for the analysis.Results. The students consume 3.16 meals per day on average (boys 3.44, girls 2.87. The students who reported a smaller number of meals per day consume statistically significantly less fruit, vegetables, milk, milk products and fish. They take hot meals less frequently, consume less often all daily meals, their daily meals are of a poorer quality in respect to their composition, they eat less often their meals in a sitting position, they feel a greater difference in diet between working week days and weekends, their regular nourishment is more influenced by school obligations, they have poorer knowledge of healthy dietary practices, smoke more often, are less satisfied with their weight, are less physically active and girls sleep less at nights. The inverse proportional relationship between the number of daily meals and the body mass index was not statistically significant. The multivariant linear regression model explained the low variance percentage (R2 = 0.28.Conclusions. The average number of daily meals consumed by schoolboys is at the lower border of recommendations, while the average number of daily meals

  6. Evaluation of statistical and rainfall-runoff models for predicting historical daily streamflow time series in the Des Moines and Iowa River watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, William H.; Knight, Rodney R.; Eash, David A.; Kasey J. Hutchinson,; Linhart, S. Mike; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Over, Thomas M.; Kiang, Julie E.

    2015-08-24

    Daily records of streamflow are essential to understanding hydrologic systems and managing the interactions between human and natural systems. Many watersheds and locations lack streamgages to provide accurate and reliable records of daily streamflow. In such ungaged watersheds, statistical tools and rainfall-runoff models are used to estimate daily streamflow. Previous work compared 19 different techniques for predicting daily streamflow records in the southeastern United States. Here, five of the better-performing methods are compared in a different hydroclimatic region of the United States, in Iowa. The methods fall into three classes: (1) drainage-area ratio methods, (2) nonlinear spatial interpolations using flow duration curves, and (3) mechanistic rainfall-runoff models. The first two classes are each applied with nearest-neighbor and map-correlated index streamgages. Using a threefold validation and robust rank-based evaluation, the methods are assessed for overall goodness of fit of the hydrograph of daily streamflow, the ability to reproduce a daily, no-fail storage-yield curve, and the ability to reproduce key streamflow statistics. As in the Southeast study, a nonlinear spatial interpolation of daily streamflow using flow duration curves is found to be a method with the best predictive accuracy. Comparisons with previous work in Iowa show that the accuracy of mechanistic models with at-site calibration is substantially degraded in the ungaged framework.

  7. Performance Evaluation of Linear (ARMA and Threshold Nonlinear (TAR Time Series Models in Daily River Flow Modeling (Case Study: Upstream Basin Rivers of Zarrineh Roud Dam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farshad Fathian

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Time series models are generally categorized as a data-driven method or mathematically-based method. These models are known as one of the most important tools in modeling and forecasting of hydrological processes, which are used to design and scientific management of water resources projects. On the other hand, a better understanding of the river flow process is vital for appropriate streamflow modeling and forecasting. One of the main concerns of hydrological time series modeling is whether the hydrologic variable is governed by the linear or nonlinear models through time. Although the linear time series models have been widely applied in hydrology research, there has been some recent increasing interest in the application of nonlinear time series approaches. The threshold autoregressive (TAR method is frequently applied in modeling the mean (first order moment of financial and economic time series. Thise type of the model has not received considerable attention yet from the hydrological community. The main purposes of this paper are to analyze and to discuss stochastic modeling of daily river flow time series of the study area using linear (such as ARMA: autoregressive integrated moving average and non-linear (such as two- and three- regime TAR models. Material and Methods: The study area has constituted itself of four sub-basins namely, Saghez Chai, Jighato Chai, Khorkhoreh Chai and Sarogh Chai from west to east, respectively, which discharge water into the Zarrineh Roud dam reservoir. River flow time series of 6 hydro-gauge stations located on upstream basin rivers of Zarrineh Roud dam (located in the southern part of Urmia Lake basin were considered to model purposes. All the data series used here to start from January 1, 1997, and ends until December 31, 2011. In this study, the daily river flow data from January 01 1997 to December 31 2009 (13 years were chosen for calibration and data for January 01 2010 to December 31 2011

  8. Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jordan R.; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Kumar, Sujay V.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on a land surface model (LSM) apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. In the West, higher latent heat fluxes prevailed, which enhanced the rates of evapotranspiration and soil moisture depletion in the LSM. By late Summer and Autumn, both the average sensible and latent heat fluxes increased in the West as a result of the more rapid soil drying and higher coverage of GVF. The impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP was also examined for a single severe weather case study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate coupled LIS/WRF model simulations were made for the 17 July 2010 severe weather event in the Upper Midwest using the NCEP and SPoRT GVFs, with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and

  9. Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model in Detecting Activities of Daily Living in Wearable Videos for Studies of Dementia

    CERN Document Server

    Karaman, Svebor; Dovgalecs, Vladislavs; Mégret, Rémi; Pinquier, Julien; André-Obrecht, Régine; Gaëstel, Yann; Dartigues, Jean-François

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a method for indexing activities of daily living in videos obtained from wearable cameras. In the context of dementia diagnosis by doctors, the videos are recorded at patients' houses and later visualized by the medical practitioners. The videos may last up to two hours, therefore a tool for an efficient navigation in terms of activities of interest is crucial for the doctors. The specific recording mode provides video data which are really difficult, being a single sequence shot where strong motion and sharp lighting changes often appear. Our work introduces an automatic motion based segmentation of the video and a video structuring approach in terms of activities by a hierarchical two-level Hidden Markov Model. We define our description space over motion and visual characteristics of video and audio channels. Experiments on real data obtained from the recording at home of several patients show the difficulty of the task and the promising results of our approach.

  10. Cosmological models in general relativity

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    B B Paul

    2003-12-01

    LRS Bianchi type-I space-time filled with perfect fluid is considered here with deceleration parameter as variable. The metric potentials and are functions of as well as . Assuming '/=(), where prime denotes differentiation with respect to , it was found that =('/) and =(), where =() and is the scale factor which is a function of only. The value of Hubble’s constant 0 was found to be less than half for non-flat model and is equal to 1.3 for a flat model.

  11. A hierarchical model of daily stream temperature using air-water temperature synchronization, autocorrelation, and time lags

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letcher, Benjamin; Hocking, Daniel; O'Neill, K.; Whiteley, Andrew R.; Nislow, Keith H.; O'Donnell, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    Water temperature is a primary driver of stream ecosystems and commonly forms the basis of stream classifications. Robust models of stream temperature are critical as the climate changes, but estimating daily stream temperature poses several important challenges. We developed a statistical model that accounts for many challenges that can make stream temperature estimation difficult. Our model identifies the yearly period when air and water temperature are synchronized, accommodates hysteresis, incorporates time lags, deals with missing data and autocorrelation and can include external drivers. In a small stream network, the model performed well (RMSE = 0.59 °C), identified a clear warming trend (0.63 °C · decade-1) and a widening of the synchronized period (29 d · decade-1). We also carefully evaluated how missing data influenced predictions. Missing data within a year had a small effect on performance (~ 0.05% average drop in RMSE with 10% fewer days with data). Missing all data for a year decreased performance (~ 0.6 °C jump in RMSE), but this decrease was moderated when data were available from other streams in the network.

  12. A hierarchical model of daily stream temperature using air-water temperature synchronization, autocorrelation, and time lags.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letcher, Benjamin H; Hocking, Daniel J; O'Neil, Kyle; Whiteley, Andrew R; Nislow, Keith H; O'Donnell, Matthew J

    2016-01-01

    Water temperature is a primary driver of stream ecosystems and commonly forms the basis of stream classifications. Robust models of stream temperature are critical as the climate changes, but estimating daily stream temperature poses several important challenges. We developed a statistical model that accounts for many challenges that can make stream temperature estimation difficult. Our model identifies the yearly period when air and water temperature are synchronized, accommodates hysteresis, incorporates time lags, deals with missing data and autocorrelation and can include external drivers. In a small stream network, the model performed well (RMSE = 0.59°C), identified a clear warming trend (0.63 °C decade(-1)) and a widening of the synchronized period (29 d decade(-1)). We also carefully evaluated how missing data influenced predictions. Missing data within a year had a small effect on performance (∼0.05% average drop in RMSE with 10% fewer days with data). Missing all data for a year decreased performance (∼0.6 °C jump in RMSE), but this decrease was moderated when data were available from other streams in the network.

  13. A hierarchical model of daily stream temperature using air-water temperature synchronization, autocorrelation, and time lags

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin H. Letcher

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Water temperature is a primary driver of stream ecosystems and commonly forms the basis of stream classifications. Robust models of stream temperature are critical as the climate changes, but estimating daily stream temperature poses several important challenges. We developed a statistical model that accounts for many challenges that can make stream temperature estimation difficult. Our model identifies the yearly period when air and water temperature are synchronized, accommodates hysteresis, incorporates time lags, deals with missing data and autocorrelation and can include external drivers. In a small stream network, the model performed well (RMSE = 0.59°C, identified a clear warming trend (0.63 °C decade−1 and a widening of the synchronized period (29 d decade−1. We also carefully evaluated how missing data influenced predictions. Missing data within a year had a small effect on performance (∼0.05% average drop in RMSE with 10% fewer days with data. Missing all data for a year decreased performance (∼0.6 °C jump in RMSE, but this decrease was moderated when data were available from other streams in the network.

  14. The daily gluten intake in relatives of patients with coeliac disease compared with that of the general Dutch population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    vanOverbeek, FM; UilDieterman, IGA; Mol, IW; KohlerBrands, L; Heymans, HSA; Mulder, CJJ

    1997-01-01

    Background: It has been suggested that the amount of gluten intake in populations offers an explanation for differences in the epidemiology of coeliac disease. Investigations into first-degree relatives of coeliac disease patients have often shown that relatives exhibit intermediate features of coel

  15. The daily gluten intake in relatives of patients with coeliac disease compared with that of the general Dutch population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    vanOverbeek, FM; UilDieterman, IGA; Mol, IW; KohlerBrands, L; Heymans, HSA; Mulder, CJJ

    1997-01-01

    Background: It has been suggested that the amount of gluten intake in populations offers an explanation for differences in the epidemiology of coeliac disease. Investigations into first-degree relatives of coeliac disease patients have often shown that relatives exhibit intermediate features of

  16. The daily gluten intake in relatives of patients with coeliac disease compared with that of the general Dutch population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    vanOverbeek, FM; UilDieterman, IGA; Mol, IW; KohlerBrands, L; Heymans, HSA; Mulder, CJJ

    1997-01-01

    Background: It has been suggested that the amount of gluten intake in populations offers an explanation for differences in the epidemiology of coeliac disease. Investigations into first-degree relatives of coeliac disease patients have often shown that relatives exhibit intermediate features of coel

  17. Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Jing-Cheng [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Huang, Guohe, E-mail: huang@iseis.org [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Huang, Yuefei [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang, Hua [College of Science and Engineering, Texas A& M University — Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412-5797 (United States); Li, Zhong [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Chen, Qiuwen [Center for Eco-Environmental Research, Nanjing Hydraulics Research Institute, Nanjing 210029 (China)

    2015-08-15

    Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. - Highlights: • We develop an improved hydrologic model considering the scaling effect of rainfall. • A

  18. Validating the simulation of optical reflectance by a vertically resolved canopy biophysics model with MODIS daily observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drewry, D. T.; Duveiller, G.

    2012-12-01

    , hydrological and energetic (ie. biochemical, water stress, energy balance) states and fluxes and remotely sensed reflectances across the visible and near infrared bands observed by MODIS. Special care is made to ensure that the satellite observations match adequately, in both time and space, with the coupled model simulations. To do so, daily MODIS observations are used for which the exact time when they have been calculated is known by the satellite orbits. A previously-developed model of the spatial response of the sensor is also used to ensure that each footprint of every observation is within the target fields. This latter step is necessary for using daily MODIS data, as the observation footprint is often much larger than the 250 meter pixel it is encoded in, with further variation according to the orbit. This study focuses on the agro-ecosystem of the Central US, characterized by large-scale annual plantations of soybean and maize, for which MLCan has been rigorously validated.

  19. Daily newspaper reporting on elderly care in Sweden and Finland: a quantitative content analysis of ethnicity- and migration-related issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Torres

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Media representations are important sources of information especially about contexts that people have limited access to (such as the one we address here, that is, elderly care. Representations of this also give us an insight into how ethnicity-, culture-, and migration-related issues are regarded. This article aims to shed light on media representations related to the nexus of elderly care, ethnicity, and migration in Sweden and Finland, given that the two countries have similar elderly care regimes but different migration regimes. The study uses quantitative content analysis to analyze all of the daily newspaper articles on elderly care that have touched upon these issues and have been published in one major newspaper in each country between 1995 and 2011 (N=347. In this article, we present the topics that these newspaper articles discuss; the elderly care actors that the articles focus on (i.e. whether the focus has been on elderly care recipients, elderly care providers or informal caregivers; the ethnic backgrounds of those who expressed themselves in the articles (i.e. whether the focus has been on the ethnic majority or on ethnic minorities; and the type of explanatory frameworks used in the daily press reporting in question. The article problematizes the media representations of ethnicity- and migration-related issues within the Swedish and Finnish elderly care sectors that the analysis has unveiled in relation to the debate on the challenges that the globalization of international migration poses to the elderly care sector.

  20. Systematic investigation of gridding-related scaling effects on annual statistics of daily temperature and precipitation maxima: A case study for south-east Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francia B. Avila

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Using daily station observations over the period 1951–2013 in a region of south-east Australia, we systematically compare how the horizontal resolution, interpolation method and order of operation in generating gridded data sets affect estimates of annual extreme indices of temperature and precipitation maxima (hottest and wettest days. Three interpolation methods (natural neighbors, cubic spline and angular distance weighting are used to calculate grids at five different horizontal gridded resolutions ranging from 0.25° to 2.5°. In each case the order of operation in which the grid values of the hottest and wettest day are calculated is varied: either they are estimated from daily grids or from station points and then gridded. We find that the grid resolution-despite showing more regional detail at high resolution – has relatively limited effect when considering regional averages. However, the interpolation method and the order of operation can substantially influence the actual gridded values. And while the difference due to the order of operation is not substantial when using natural neighbor and cubic spline interpolation, it is particularly apparent for indices calculated from daily gridded estimates using the angular distance weighting method. As expected given the high spatial variability of precipitation fields, precipitation extremes are most sensitive to method, but temperature extremes also exhibit substantial differences. For the annual maximum values averaged over the study area, the differences may be up to 2.8 °C for temperature and 60 mm (about a factor 2 for precipitation. Differences are seen most prominently in return period estimates where a 1 in 100 year return value calculated using the angular distance weighting daily gridded method is equivalent to about a 1 in 5 year return value in most of the other methods. Despite substantial differences in the actual values of gridded extremes, analyses suggest that the

  1. Personal meaning in relation to daily functioning of a patient in physical therapy practice: narratives of a patient, a family member, and physical therapist.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oosting, Ellen; Dronkers, Jaap; Hoogeboom, Thomas; van Meeteren, Nico; Speelman, Willem Marie

    2017-02-24

    To get insight into personal meaning of a person involved in a physical therapy intervention. Mrs. A, a 76-year-old woman is referred to a physical therapist (PT) for assessment of functioning and training before total hip arthroplasty (THA). The patient, her daughter, and PT were asked to write a story about their daily life. Stories were analyzed according to the narrative scheme based on a method to find meaning in daily life, which consists of four phases: 1. Motivation; 2. Competences; 3. Performance; and 4. Mrs. A was mainly motivated by her will to do enjoyable social activities and stay independent. Although she tried her best to undertake activities (performance) that made her proud (evaluation), her pain and physical limitations were anti-competences that motivated her to attend healthcare. Although the PT seemed to be aware of personal participation goals, her main motivation was to improve and evaluate functions and activities. The daughter was motivated by good relationships and did not see herself as informal caregiver. The narrative method was a valuable tool to clarify motivations, competences, and values in the process of creating personal meaning related to functioning. This knowledge could help caregivers in applying patient-centered goal-setting and treatment on a participation level. Implications for rehabilitation Personal meaning of people's functioning within their daily context can be clarified from daily life stories. This case report demonstrates that motivations and goals may differ between patient and therapist; the PT seems to focus on improving and evaluating functions and activities, while the patient seems to focus her motivations and personal meaning on participation. This approach may help in patient-centered goal-setting at the level of activities and participation.

  2. Combining remote sensing and GIS climate modelling to estimate daily forest evapotranspiration in a Mediterranean mountain area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Cristóbal

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Evapotranspiration monitoring allows us to assess the environmental stress on forest and agricultural ecosystems. Nowadays, Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems (GIS are the main techniques used for calculating evapotranspiration at catchment and regional scales. In this study we present a methodology, based on the energy balance equation (B-method, that combines remote sensing imagery with GIS-based climate modelling to estimate daily evapotranspiration (ETd for several dates between 2003 and 2005. The three main variables needed to compute ETd were obtained as follows: (i Land surface temperature by means of the Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-7 ETM+ thermal band, (ii air temperature by means of multiple regression analysis and spatial interpolation from meteorological ground stations data at satellite pass, and (iii net radiation by means of the radiative balance. We calculated ETd using remote sensing data at different spatial and temporal scales (Landsat-7 ETM+, Landsat-5 TM and TERRA/AQUA MODIS, with a spatial resolution of 60, 120 and 1000 m, respectively and combining three different approaches to calculate the B parameter, which represents an average bulk conductance for the daily-integrated sensible heat flux. We then compared these estimates with sap flow measurements from a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L. stand in a Mediterranean mountain area. This procedure allowed us to better understand the limitations of ETd modelling and how it needs to be improved, especially in heterogeneous forest areas. The method using Landsat data resulted in a good agreement, R2 test of 0.89, with a mean RMSE value of about 0.6 mm day−1 and an estimation error of ±30 %. The poor agreement obtained using TERRA/AQUA MODIS, with a mean RMSE value of 1.8 and 2.4 mm day−1 and an estimation error of about ±57 and 50 %, respectively. This

  3. Daily physical activity in ankylosing spondylitis : validity and reliability of the IPAQ and SQUASH and the relation with clinical assessments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arends, Suzanne; Hofman, Marianne; Kamsma, Yvo P T; van der Veer, Eveline; Houtman, Pieternella M; Kallenberg, Cornelis; Spoorenberg, Anneke; Brouwer, Elisabeth

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: The aim of this study was to investigate the construct validity and test-retest reliability of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ; long form) and the Short QUestionnaire to Assess Health-enhancing physical activity (SQUASH) and to investigate the relation between

  4. Development of total maximum daily loads for bacteria impaired watershed using the comprehensive hydrology and water quality simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sang M; Brannan, Kevin M; Zeckoski, Rebecca W; Benham, Brian L

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this study was to develop bacteria total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) for the Hardware River watershed in the Commonwealth of Virginia, USA. The TMDL program is an integrated watershed management approach required by the Clean Water Act. The TMDLs were developed to meet Virginia's water quality standard for bacteria at the time, which stated that the calendar-month geometric mean concentration of Escherichia coli should not exceed 126 cfu/100 mL, and that no single sample should exceed a concentration of 235 cfu/100 mL. The bacteria impairment TMDLs were developed using the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF). The hydrology and water quality components of HSPF were calibrated and validated using data from the Hardware River watershed to ensure that the model adequately simulated runoff and bacteria concentrations. The calibrated and validated HSPF model was used to estimate the contributions from the various bacteria sources in the Hardware River watershed to the in-stream concentration. Bacteria loads were estimated through an extensive source characterization process. Simulation results for existing conditions indicated that the majority of the bacteria came from livestock and wildlife direct deposits and pervious lands. Different source reduction scenarios were evaluated to identify scenarios that meet both the geometric mean and single sample maximum E. coli criteria with zero violations. The resulting scenarios required extreme and impractical reductions from livestock and wildlife sources. Results from studies similar to this across Virginia partially contributed to a reconsideration of the standard's applicability to TMDL development.

  5. Health professionals perceive teamwork with relatives as an obstacle in their daily work - a focus group interview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Jannie; Broholm, Malene; Rosenberg, Jacob

    2017-01-01

    of this teamwork. Methods: The study was descriptive and exploratory and had a qualitative design with a phenomenological/hermeneutic orientation for the interviews. Focus group was the chosen methodology. The study comprised 19 health professionals in four focus groups. Results: Two themes emerged from...... makes it difficult for them to integrate relatives more and see them as participants in a natural teamwork for the benefit of the patient....

  6. A Conceptual Model for Teaching the Relationship of Daily Life and Human Environmental Impact to Ecological Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyner, Yael

    2013-01-01

    In the general activity of daily life, it is easy to miss our dependency on the Earth's ecology. At the same time that people are living apparently separate from the environment, our impact on the Earth is increasing. This study seeks to understand how teachers can bridge this persistent disconnect of daily life from ecology and human impact.…

  7. Relative risk regression models with inverse polynomials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Yang; Woodward, Mark

    2013-08-30

    The proportional hazards model assumes that the log hazard ratio is a linear function of parameters. In the current paper, we model the log relative risk as an inverse polynomial, which is particularly suitable for modeling bounded and asymmetric functions. The parameters estimated by maximizing the partial likelihood are consistent and asymptotically normal. The advantages of the inverse polynomial model over the ordinary polynomial model and the fractional polynomial model for fitting various asymmetric log relative risk functions are shown by simulation. The utility of the method is further supported by analyzing two real data sets, addressing the specific question of the location of the minimum risk threshold.

  8. Forecasting Daily Precipitation Using Hybrid Model of Wavelet-Artificial Neural Network and Comparison with Adaptive Neurofuzzy Inference System (Case Study: Verayneh Station, Nahavand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abazar Solgi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Doubtlessly the first step in a river management is the precipitation modeling over the related watershed. However, considering high-stochastic property of the process, many models are still being developed in order to define such a complex phenomenon in the field of hydrologic engineering. Recently artificial neural network (ANN as a nonlinear interextrapolator is extensively used by hydrologists for precipitation modeling as well as other fields of hydrology. In the present study, wavelet analysis combined with artificial neural network and finally was compared with adaptive neurofuzzy system to predict the precipitation in Verayneh station, Nahavand, Hamedan, Iran. For this purpose, the original time series using wavelet theory decomposed to multiple subtime series. Then, these subseries were applied as input data for artificial neural network, to predict daily precipitation, and compared with results of adaptive neurofuzzy system. The results showed that the combination of wavelet models and neural networks has a better performance than adaptive neurofuzzy system, and can be applied to predict both short- and long-term precipitations.

  9. A comparison of nonlinear stochastic self-exciting threshold autoregressive and chaotic k-nearest neighbour models in daily streamflow forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tongal, Hakan; Booij, Martijn J.

    2016-01-01

    A nonlinear stochastic self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model and a chaotic k-nearest neighbour (k-nn) model, for the first time, were compared in one and multi-step ahead daily flow forecasting for nine rivers with low, medium, and high flows in the western United States. The

  10. Selecting the optimal method to calculate daily global reference potential evaporation from CFSR reanalysis data for application in a hydrological model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. C. Sperna Weiland

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Potential evaporation (PET is one of the main inputs of hydrological models. Yet, there is limited consensus on which PET equation is most applicable in hydrological climate impact assessments. In this study six different methods to derive global scale reference PET daily time series from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR data are compared: Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor and original and re-calibrated versions of the Hargreaves and Blaney-Criddle method. The calculated PET time series are (1 evaluated against global monthly Penman-Monteith PET time series calculated from CRU data and (2 tested on their usability for modeling of global discharge cycles.

    A major finding is that for part of the investigated basins the selection of a PET method may have only a minor influence on the resulting river flow. Within the hydrological model used in this study the bias related to the PET method tends to decrease while going from PET, AET and runoff to discharge calculations. However, the performance of individual PET methods appears to be spatially variable, which stresses the necessity to select the most accurate and spatially stable PET method. The lowest root mean squared differences and the least significant deviations (95% significance level between monthly CFSR derived PET time series and CRU derived PET were obtained for a cell-specific re-calibrated Blaney-Criddle equation. However, results show that this re-calibrated form is likely to be unstable under changing climate conditions and less reliable for the calculation of daily time series. Although often recommended, the Penman-Monteith equation applied to the CFSR data did not outperform the other methods in a evaluation against PET derived with the Penman-Monteith equation from CRU data. In arid regions (e.g. Sahara, central Australia, US deserts, the equation resulted in relatively low PET values and, consequently, led to relatively high discharge values for dry basins (e

  11. Daily precipitation grids for Austria since 1961—development and evaluation of a spatial dataset for hydroclimatic monitoring and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiebl, Johann; Frei, Christoph

    2017-03-01

    Spatial precipitation datasets that are long-term consistent, highly resolved and extend over several decades are an increasingly popular basis for modelling and monitoring environmental processes and planning tasks in hydrology, agriculture, energy resources management, etc. Here, we present a grid dataset of daily precipitation for Austria meant to promote such applications. It has a grid spacing of 1 km, extends back till 1961 and is continuously updated. It is constructed with the classical two-tier analysis, involving separate interpolations for mean monthly precipitation and daily relative anomalies. The former was accomplished by kriging with topographic predictors as external drift utilising 1249 stations. The latter is based on angular distance weighting and uses 523 stations. The input station network was kept largely stationary over time to avoid artefacts on long-term consistency. Example cases suggest that the new analysis is at least as plausible as previously existing datasets. Cross-validation and comparison against experimental high-resolution observations (WegenerNet) suggest that the accuracy of the dataset depends on interpretation. Users interpreting grid point values as point estimates must expect systematic overestimates for light and underestimates for heavy precipitation as well as substantial random errors. Grid point estimates are typically within a factor of 1.5 from in situ observations. Interpreting grid point values as area mean values, conditional biases are reduced and the magnitude of random errors is considerably smaller. Together with a similar dataset of temperature, the new dataset (SPARTACUS) is an interesting basis for modelling environmental processes, studying climate change impacts and monitoring the climate of Austria.

  12. Lifted Inference for Relational Continuous Models

    CERN Document Server

    Choi, Jaesik; Hill, David J

    2012-01-01

    Relational Continuous Models (RCMs) represent joint probability densities over attributes of objects, when the attributes have continuous domains. With relational representations, they can model joint probability distributions over large numbers of variables compactly in a natural way. This paper presents a new exact lifted inference algorithm for RCMs, thus it scales up to large models of real world applications. The algorithm applies to Relational Pairwise Models which are (relational) products of potentials of arity 2. Our algorithm is unique in two ways. First, it substantially improves the efficiency of lifted inference with variables of continuous domains. When a relational model has Gaussian potentials, it takes only linear-time compared to cubic time of previous methods. Second, it is the first exact inference algorithm which handles RCMs in a lifted way. The algorithm is illustrated over an example from econometrics. Experimental results show that our algorithm outperforms both a groundlevel inferenc...

  13. Daily intake of Jeju groundwater improves the skin condition of the model mouse for human atopic dermatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Akane; Jung, Kyungsook; Matsuda, Akira; Jang, Hyosun; Kajiwara, Naoki; Amagai, Yosuke; Oida, Kumiko; Ahn, Ginnae; Ohmori, Keitaro; Kang, Kyung-goo; Matsuda, Hiroshi

    2013-03-01

    Drinking water is an important nutrient for human health. The mineral ingredients included in drinking water may affect the physical condition of people. Various kinds of natural water are in circulation as bottled water in developed countries; however, its influence on clinical conditions of patients with certain diseases has not been fully evaluated. In this study, effects of the natural groundwater from Jeju Island on clinical symptoms and skin barrier function in atopic dermatitis (AD) were evaluated. NC/Tnd mice, a model for human AD, with moderate to severe dermatitis were used. Mice were given different natural groundwater or tap water for 8 weeks from 4 weeks of age. Clinical skin severity scores were recorded every week. Scratching analysis and measurement of transepidermal water loss were performed every other week. The pathological condition of the dorsal skin was evaluated histologically. Real-time polymerase chain reaction analysis was performed for cytokine expression in the affected skin. The epidermal hyperplasia and allergic inflammation were reduced in atopic mice supplied with Jeju groundwater when compared to those supplied with tap water or other kinds of natural groundwater. The increase in scratching behavior with the aggravation of clinical severity of dermatitis was favorably controlled. Moreover, transepidermal water loss that reflects skin barrier function was recovered. The early inflammation and hypersensitivity in the atopic skin was alleviated in mice supplied with Jeju groundwater, suggesting its profitable potential on the daily care of patients with skin troubles including AD.

  14. Critical flow-storm approach to total maximum daily load(TMDL) development: an analytical conceptual model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Harry X.ZHANG; Shaw L.YU

    2008-01-01

    One of the key challenges in the total max-imum daily load (TMDL) development process is how to define the critical condition for a receiving water-body. The main concern in using a continuous simu-lation approach is the absence of any guarantee that the most critical condition will be captured during the selected representative hydrologic period, given the scar-city of long-term continuous data. The objectives of this paper are to clearly address the critical condition in the TMDL development process and to compare continu-ous and evEnt-based approaches in defining critical con-dition during TMDL development for a waterbody impacted by both point and nonpoint source pollution. A practical, event-based critical flow-storm (CFS) approach was developed to explicitly addresses the crit-ical condition as a combination of a low stream flow and a storm event of a selected magnitude, both having cer-tain frequencies of occurrence. This paper illustrated the CFS concept and provided its theoretical basis using a derived analytical conceptual model. The CFS approach clearly defined a critical condition, obtained reasonable results and could be considered as an alternative method in TMDL development.

  15. GOAL: an inverse toxicity-related algorithm for daily clinical practice decision making in advanced kidney cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bracarda, Sergio; Sisani, Michele; Marrocolo, Francesca; Hamzaj, Alketa; del Buono, Sabrina; De Simone, Valeria

    2014-03-01

    Metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC), considered almost an orphan disease only six years ago, appears today a very dynamic pathology. The recently switch to the actual overcrowded scenario defined by seven active drugs has driven physicians to an incertitude status, due to difficulties in defining the best possible treatment strategy. This situation is mainly related to the absence of predictive biomarkers for any available or new therapy. Such issue, associated with the nearly absence of published face-to-face studies, draws a complex picture frame. In order to solve this dilemma, decisional algorithms tailored on drug efficacy data and patient profile are recognized as very useful tools. These approaches try to select the best therapy suitable for every patient profile. On the contrary, the present review has the "goal" to suggest a reverse approach: basing on the pivotal studies, post-marketing surveillance reports and our experience, we defined the polarizing toxicity (the most frequent toxicity in the light of clinical experience) for every single therapy, creating a new algorithm able to identify the patient profile, mainly comorbidities, unquestionably unsuitable for each single agent presently available for either the first- or the second-line therapy. The GOAL inverse decision-making algorithm, proposed at the end of this review, allows to select the best therapy for mRCC by reducing the risk of limiting toxicities.

  16. Effects of stage of pregnancy on variance components, daily milk yields and 305-day milk yield in Holstein cows, as estimated by using a test-day model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamazaki, T; Hagiya, K; Takeda, H; Osawa, T; Yamaguchi, S; Nagamine, Y

    2016-08-01

    Pregnancy and calving are elements indispensable for dairy production, but the daily milk yield of cows decline as pregnancy progresses, especially during the late stages. Therefore, the effect of stage of pregnancy on daily milk yield must be clarified to accurately estimate the breeding values and lifetime productivity of cows. To improve the genetic evaluation model for daily milk yield and determine the effect of the timing of pregnancy on productivity, we used a test-day model to assess the effects of stage of pregnancy on variance component estimates, daily milk yields and 305-day milk yield during the first three lactations of Holstein cows. Data were 10 646 333 test-day records for the first lactation; 8 222 661 records for the second; and 5 513 039 records for the third. The data were analyzed within each lactation by using three single-trait random regression animal models: one model that did not account for the stage of pregnancy effect and two models that did. The effect of stage of pregnancy on test-day milk yield was included in the model by applying a regression on days pregnant or fitting a separate lactation curve for each days open (days from calving to pregnancy) class (eight levels). Stage of pregnancy did not affect the heritability estimates of daily milk yield, although the additive genetic and permanent environmental variances in late lactation were decreased by accounting for the stage of pregnancy effect. The effects of days pregnant on daily milk yield during late lactation were larger in the second and third lactations than in the first lactation. The rates of reduction of the 305-day milk yield of cows that conceived fewer than 90 days after the second or third calving were significantly (Ppregnancy in the first, compared with later, lactations should be included when determining the optimal number of days open to maximize lifetime productivity in dairy cows.

  17. Future daily PM10 concentrations prediction by combining regression models and feedforward backpropagation models with principle component analysis (PCA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ul-Saufie, Ahmad Zia; Yahaya, Ahmad Shukri; Ramli, Nor Azam; Rosaida, Norrimi; Hamid, Hazrul Abdul

    2013-10-01

    Future PM10 concentration prediction is very important because it can help local authorities to enact preventative measures to reduce the impact of air pollution. The aims of this study are to improve prediction of Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Feedforward backpropagation (FFBP) by combining them with principle component analysis for predicting future (next day, next two-day and next three-day) PM10 concentration in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia. Annual hourly observations for PM10 in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia from January 2003 to December 2010 were selected for predicting PM10 concentration level. Eighty percent of the monitoring records were used for training and twenty percent were used for validation of the models. Three accuracy measures - Prediction Accuracy (PA), Coefficient of Determination (R2) and Index of Agreement (IA), as well as two error measures - Normalized Absolute Error (NAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the performance of the models. Results show that PCA models combined with MLR and PCA with FFBP improved MLR and FFBP models for all three days in advance of predicting PM10 concentration, with reduced errors by as much as 18.1% (PCA-MLR) and 17.68% (PCA-FFBP) for next day, 19.2% (PCA-MLR) and 22.1% (PCA-FFBP) for next two-day and 18.7% (PCA-MLR) and 22.79% (PCA-FFBP) for next three-day predictions. Including PCA improved the accuracy of the models by as much as by 12.9% (PCA-MLR) and 13.3% (PCA-FFBP) for next day, 32.3% (PCA-MLR) and 14.7% (PCA-FFBP) for next two-day and 46.1% (PCA-MLR) and 19.3% (PCA-FFBP) for next three-day predictions.

  18. A Model of Egoistical Relative Deprivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosby, Faye

    1976-01-01

    Examines the theory of relative deprivation. This theory states, basically, that objective and subjective well-being are not isomorphically related, so that sometimes the better-off one is, the worse-off one feels subjectively. After a brief review of work in the area of relative deprivation, a formal model is developed. (Editor/RK)

  19. Geostatistical interpolation of daily rainfall at catchment scale: the use of several variogram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments, Belgium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ly

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is of great importance for hydrological modelling. Geostatistical methods (kriging are widely applied in spatial interpolation from point measurement to continuous surfaces. The first step in kriging computation is the semi-variogram modelling which usually used only one variogram model for all-moment data. The objective of this paper was to develop different algorithms of spatial interpolation for daily rainfall on 1 km2 regular grids in the catchment area and to compare the results of geostatistical and deterministic approaches. This study leaned on 30-yr daily rainfall data of 70 raingages in the hilly landscape of the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments in Belgium (2908 km2. This area lies between 35 and 693 m in elevation and consists of river networks, which are tributaries of the Meuse River. For geostatistical algorithms, seven semi-variogram models (logarithmic, power, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, spherical and penta-spherical were fitted to daily sample semi-variogram on a daily basis. These seven variogram models were also adopted to avoid negative interpolated rainfall. The elevation, extracted from a digital elevation model, was incorporated into multivariate geostatistics. Seven validation raingages and cross validation were used to compare the interpolation performance of these algorithms applied to different densities of raingages. We found that between the seven variogram models used, the Gaussian model was the most frequently best fit. Using seven variogram models can avoid negative daily rainfall in ordinary kriging. The negative estimates of kriging were observed for convective more than stratiform rain. The performance of the different methods varied slightly according to the density of raingages, particularly between 8 and 70 raingages but it was much different for interpolation using 4 raingages. Spatial interpolation with the geostatistical and

  20. Efficacy of once-daily indacaterol relative to alternative bronchodilators in COPD: a patient-level mixed treatment comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cope, Shannon; Capkun-Niggli, Gorana; Gale, Rupert; Lassen, Cheryl; Owen, Roger; Ouwens, Mario J N M; Bergman, Gert; Jansen, Jeroen P

    2012-05-01

    Indacaterol was evaluated versus placebo, formoterol, and salmeterol in randomized controlled trials. No direct comparisons, however, are available for indacaterol 150 μg with formoterol or indacaterol 300 μg with salmeterol. Indacaterol trial evidence was synthesized to provide coherent estimates of indacaterol 150 μg and indacaterol 300 μg relative to formoterol, salmeterol, and tiotropium. Four randomized controlled trials were combined with Bayesian mixed treatment comparisons by using individual patient-level data. End points of interest were trough forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV(1)), St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) total score and response (≥ 4 points), and Transition Dyspnea Index total score and response (≥ 1 point). Indacaterol 150 μg demonstrated a higher FEV(1) than did formoterol at 12 weeks and 6 months (0.10 L difference; 95% credible interval [CrI] = 0.06-0.14), as did indacaterol 300 μg versus salmeterol (0.06 L difference at 12 weeks; CrI = 0.02-0.10; 0.06 L at 6 months; CrI = 0.02-0.11). Regarding SGRQ, indacaterol 150 μg demonstrated a comparable proportion of responders versus formoterol, as did indacaterol 300 μg versus salmeterol. In comparison to tiotropium, indacaterol 150 μg demonstrated a greater proportion of responders (odds ratio = 1.52 at 12 weeks; CrI 1.15-2.00). For Transition Dyspnea Index, indacaterol 150 μg and formoterol showed a similar response. Indacaterol 300 μg was more efficacious than salmeterol (odds ratio = 1.65 at 12 weeks; CrI 1.16-2.34). Overall, indacaterol 150 μg showed the greatest efficacy for SGRQ and indacaterol 300 μg for FEV(1) and Transition Dyspnea Index. Indacaterol is expected to be comparable to formoterol, salmeterol, and tiotropium, providing higher FEV(1) than formoterol and salmeterol and greater improvement in the SGRQ total score than tiotropium. Indacaterol 150 μg provided comparable improvement in dyspnea, while indacaterol 300 μg demonstrated the

  1. Airflow limitation or static hyperinflation: which is more closely related to dyspnea with activities of daily living in patients with COPD?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nishimura Takashi

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dyspnea while performing the activities of daily living has been suggested to be a better measurement than peak dyspnea during exercise. Furthermore, the inspiratory capacity (IC has been shown to be more closely related to exercise tolerance and dyspnea than the FEV1, because dynamic hyperinflation is the main cause of shortness of breath in patients with COPD. However, breathlessness during exercise is measured in most studies to evaluate this relationship. Purpose To evaluate the correlation between breathlessness during daily activities and airflow limitation or static hyperinflation in COPD. Methods We examined 167 consecutive outpatients with stable COPD. The Baseline Dyspnea Index (BDI was used to evaluate dyspnea with activities of daily living. The relationship between the BDI score and the clinical measurements of pulmonary function was then investigated. Results The Spearman rank correlation coefficients (Rs between the BDI score and the FEV1(L, FEV1(%pred and FEV1/FVC were 0.60, 0.56 and 0.56, respectively. On the other hand, the BDI score also correlated with the IC, IC/predicted total lung capacity (TLC and IC/TLC (Rs = 0.45, 0.46 and 0.47, respectively. Although all of the relationships studied were strongly correlated, the correlation coefficients were better between dyspnea and airflow limitation than between dyspnea and static hyperinflation. In stepwise multiple regression analyses, the BDI score was most significantly explained by the FEV1 (R2 = 26.2% and the diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (R2 = 14.4% (Cumulative R2 = 40.6%. Static hyperinflation was not a significant factor for clinical dyspnea on the stepwise multiple regression analysis. Conclusion Both static hyperinflation and airflow limitation contributed greatly to dyspnea in COPD patients.

  2. Spatio-temporal models to estimate daily concentrations of fine particulate matter in Montreal: Kriging with external drift and inverse distance-weighted approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Yuddy; St-Onge, Benoît; Blanchet, Jean-Pierre; Smargiassi, Audrey

    2016-06-01

    Air pollution is a major environmental and health problem, especially in urban agglomerations. Estimating personal exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) remains a great challenge because it requires numerous point measurements to explain the daily spatial variation in pollutant levels. Furthermore, meteorological variables have considerable effects on the dispersion and distribution of pollutants, which also depends on spatio-temporal emission patterns. In this study we developed a hybrid interpolation technique that combined the inverse distance-weighted (IDW) method with Kriging with external drift (KED), and applied it to daily PM2.5 levels observed at 10 monitoring stations. This provided us with downscaled high-resolution maps of PM2.5 for the Island of Montreal. For the KED interpolation, we used spatio-temporal daily meteorological estimates and spatial covariates as land use and vegetation density. Different KED and IDW daily estimation models for the year 2010 were developed for each of the six synoptic weather classes. These clusters were developed using principal component analysis and unsupervised hierarchical classification. The results of the interpolation models were assessed with a leave-one-station-out cross-validation. The performance of the hybrid model was better than that of the KED or the IDW alone for all six synoptic weather classes (the daily estimate for R(2) was 0.66-0.93 and for root mean square error (RMSE) 2.54-1.89 μg/m(3)).

  3. Daily optimized model for long-term operation of the Three Gorges-Gezhouba Cascade Power Stations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents the step-by-step genetic algorithm based on artificial intelligence guidance and builds a long-term daily optimized operating model for the Three Gorges-Gezhouba Hydropower Complex with single generating set as the based operating unit.Actual operating data from 2004to 2006 are used to verify the model,and results show that the simulation accuracy determined by measuring the total amount of cascade power generation reaches 99.66%.Statistic hydrological data of normal years and actual data of three years of 2004-2006 are respectively used to perform an optimized prediction of the power generation process and benefits in future when the water stored in the TGP Reservoir reaches 175 m level and power generation benefits under different operation modes,such as delayed subsiding water level,advance water storage,and adopting of different flood-limited water levels,are forecasted.In the case of years with normal inflows,the total amount of cascade power generation running on current specifications reaches 107500 GWh per year.If the commencement of water storage after the flood season is moved forward by 20 days,the amount of power generation can be increased by 3400 GWh per year.If the limited water level in the flood season is raised by three to five meters,the amount of power generation can be increased by 1600 to 3200 GWh per year.If the commencement of water storage is moved forward while the maximum water level allowed in the flood season is raised,the amount of power generation can be increased by 6400 GWh per year.

  4. Combining remote sensing and GIS climate modelling to estimate daily forest evapotranspiration in a Mediterranean mountain area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Cristóbal

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Evapotranspiration monitoring allows us to assess the environmental stress on forest and agricultural ecosystems. Nowadays, Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems (GIS are the main techniques used for calculating evapotranspiration at catchment and regional scales. In this study we present a methodology, based on the energy balance equation (B-method, that combines remote sensing imagery with GIS climate modelling to estimate daily evapotranspiration (ETd for several dates between 2003 and 2005. The three main variables needed to compute ETd were obtained as follows: (i Land surface temperature by means of the Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-7 ETM+ thermal band, (ii air temperature by means of multiple regression analysis and spatial interpolation from meteorological ground stations data at satellite pass, and (iii net radiation by means of the radiative balance. We calculated ETd using remote sensing data at different spatial and temporal scales (TERRA/AQUA MODIS and Landsat-5 TM/Landsat-7 ETM+ and combining three different approaches to calculate the B parameter. We then compared these estimates with sap flow measurements from a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L. stand in a Mediterranean mountain area. This procedure allowed us to better understand the limitations of ETd modelling and how it needs to be improved, especially in heterogeneous forest areas. The method using Landsat data resulted in a good agreement, with a mean RMSE value of about 0.6 mm day−1 and an estimation error of ±30%. The poor agreement obtained using MODIS data reveals that ETd retrieval from coarse resolution remote sensing data is troublesome in these heterogeneous areas, and therefore further research is necessary on this issue.

  5. Neural network model for the prediction of PM10 daily concentrations in two sites in the Western Mediterranean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Gennaro, Gianluigi; Trizio, Livia; Di Gilio, Alessia; Pey, Jorge; Pérez, Noemi; Cusack, Michael; Alastuey, Andrés; Querol, Xavier

    2013-10-01

    An artificial neural network (ANN) was developed and tested to forecast PM10 daily concentration in two contrasted environments in NE Spain, a regional background site (Montseny), and an urban background site (Barcelona-CSIC), which was highly influenced by vehicular emissions. In order to predict 24-h average PM10 concentrations, the artificial neural network previously developed by Caselli et al. (2009) was improved by using hourly PM concentrations and deterministic factors such as a Saharan dust alert. In particular, the model input data for prediction were the hourly PM10 concentrations 1-day in advance, local meteorological data and information about air masses origin. The forecasted performance indexes for both sites were calculated and they showed better results for the regional background site in Montseny (R(2)=0.86, SI=0.75) than for urban site in Barcelona (R(2)=0.73, SI=0.58), influenced by local and sometimes unexpected sources. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis conducted to understand the importance of the different variables included among the input data, showed that local meteorology and air masses origin are key factors in the model forecasts. This result explains the reason for the improvement of ANN's forecasting performance at the Montseny site with respect to the Barcelona site. Moreover, the artificial neural network developed in this work could prove useful to predict PM10 concentrations, especially, at regional background sites such as those on the Mediterranean Basin which are primarily affected by long-range transports. Hence, the artificial neural network presented here could be a powerful tool for obtaining real time information on air quality status and could aid stakeholders in their development of cost-effective control strategies.

  6. A Daily Diary Study of Coping in the Context of the Job Demands-Control-Support Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, Kevin; Harris, Claire

    2005-01-01

    We examined one of the processes thought to underpin Karasek and Theorell's job demands-control-support model (1990). This is that control and support accentuate better well-being by fostering problem-focused coping with work demands. We also examined whether other forms of coping implemented through control and support are related to indicators…

  7. Methods of modelling relative growth rate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Arne Pommerening; Anders Muszta

    2015-01-01

    Background:Analysing and modelling plant growth is an important interdisciplinary field of plant science. The use of relative growth rates, involving the analysis of plant growth relative to plant size, has more or less independently emerged in different research groups and at different times and has provided powerful tools for assessing the growth performance and growth efficiency of plants and plant populations. In this paper, we explore how these isolated methods can be combined to form a consistent methodology for modelling relative growth rates. Methods:We review and combine existing methods of analysing and modelling relative growth rates and apply a combination of methods to Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.) stem-analysis data from North Wales (UK) and British Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesi (Mirb.) Franco) yield table data. Results:The results indicate that, by combining the approaches of different plant-growth analysis laboratories and using them simultaneously, we can advance and standardise the concept of relative plant growth. Particularly the growth multiplier plays an important role in modelling relative growth rates. Another useful technique has been the recent introduction of size-standardised relative growth rates. Conclusions:Modelling relative growth rates mainly serves two purposes, 1) an improved analysis of growth performance and efficiency and 2) the prediction of future or past growth rates. This makes the concept of relative growth ideally suited to growth reconstruction as required in dendrochronology, climate change and forest decline research and for interdisciplinary research projects beyond the realm of plant science.

  8. Methods of modelling relative growth rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arne Pommerening

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Analysing and modelling plant growth is an important interdisciplinary field of plant science. The use of relative growth rates, involving the analysis of plant growth relative to plant size, has more or less independently emerged in different research groups and at different times and has provided powerful tools for assessing the growth performance and growth efficiency of plants and plant populations. In this paper, we explore how these isolated methods can be combined to form a consistent methodology for modelling relative growth rates. Methods We review and combine existing methods of analysing and modelling relative growth rates and apply a combination of methods to Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong. Carr. stem-analysis data from North Wales (UK and British Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb. Franco yield table data. Results The results indicate that, by combining the approaches of different plant-growth analysis laboratories and using them simultaneously, we can advance and standardise the concept of relative plant growth. Particularly the growth multiplier plays an important role in modelling relative growth rates. Another useful technique has been the recent introduction of size-standardised relative growth rates. Conclusions Modelling relative growth rates mainly serves two purposes, 1 an improved analysis of growth performance and efficiency and 2 the prediction of future or past growth rates. This makes the concept of relative growth ideally suited to growth reconstruction as required in dendrochronology, climate change and forest decline research and for interdisciplinary research projects beyond the realm of plant science.

  9. The effects of videotape modeling and daily feedback on residential electricity conservation, home temperature and humidity, perceived comfort, and clothing worn: Winter and summer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winett, R A; Hatcher, J W; Fort, T R; Leckliter, I N; Love, S Q; Riley, A W; Fishback, J F

    1982-01-01

    Two studies were conducted in all-electric townhouses and apartments in the winter (N = 83) and summer (N = 54) to ascertain how energy conservation strategies focusing on thermostat change and set-backs and other low-cost/no-cost approaches would affect overall electricity use and electricity used for heating and cooling, the home thermal environment, the perceived comfort of participants, and clothing that was worn. The studies assessed the effectiveness of videotape modeling programs that demonstrated these conservation strategies when used alone or combined with daily feedback on electricity use. In the winter, the results indicated that videotape modeling and/or feedback were effective relative to baseline and to a control group in reducing overall electricity use by about 15% and electricity used for heating by about 25%. Hygrothermographs, which accurately and continuously recorded temperature and humidity in the homes, indicated that participants were able to live with no reported loss in comfort and no change in attire at a mean temperature of about 62 degrees F when home and about 59 degrees F when asleep. The results were highly discrepant with prior laboratory studies indicating comfort at 75 degrees F with the insulation value of the clothing worn by participants in this study. In the summer, a combination of strategies designed to keep a home cool with minimal or no air conditioning, in conjunction with videotape modeling and/or daily feedback, resulted in overall electricity reductions of about 15% with reductions on electricity for cooling of about 34%, but with feedback, and feedback and modeling more effective than modeling alone. Despite these electricity savings, hygrothermograph recordings indicated minimal temperature change in the homes, with no change in perceived comfort or clothing worn. The results are discussed in terms of discrepancies with laboratory studies, optimal combinations of video-media and personal contact to promote behavior

  10. Health beliefs affect the correct replacement of daily disposable contact lenses: Predicting compliance with the Health Belief Model and the Theory of Planned Behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livi, Stefano; Zeri, Fabrizio; Baroni, Rossella

    2017-02-01

    To assess the compliance of Daily Disposable Contact Lenses (DDCLs) wearers with replacing lenses at a manufacturer-recommended replacement frequency. To evaluate the ability of two different Health Behavioural Theories (HBT), The Health Belief Model (HBM) and The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), in predicting compliance. A multi-centre survey was conducted using a questionnaire completed anonymously by contact lens wearers during the purchase of DDCLs. Three hundred and fifty-four questionnaires were returned. The survey comprised 58.5% females and 41.5% males (mean age 34±12years). Twenty-three percent of respondents were non-compliant with manufacturer-recommended replacement frequency (re-using DDCLs at least once). The main reason for re-using DDCLs was "to save money" (35%). Predictions of compliance behaviour (past behaviour or future intentions) on the basis of the two HBT was investigated through logistic regression analysis: both TPB factors (subjective norms and perceived behavioural control) were significant (pbehaviour and future intentions) and perceived benefit (only for past behaviour) as significant factors (pmodel show that the involvement of persons socially close to the wearers (subjective norms) and the improvement of the procedure of behavioural control of daily replacement (behavioural control) are of paramount importance in improving compliance. With reference to the HBM, it is important to warn DDCLs wearers of the severity of a contact-lens-related eye infection, and to underline the possibility of its prevention. Copyright © 2016 British Contact Lens Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Bias Modeling for Distantly Supervised Relation Extraction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Xiang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Distant supervision (DS automatically annotates free text with relation mentions from existing knowledge bases (KBs, providing a way to alleviate the problem of insufficient training data for relation extraction in natural language processing (NLP. However, the heuristic annotation process does not guarantee the correctness of the generated labels, promoting a hot research issue on how to efficiently make use of the noisy training data. In this paper, we model two types of biases to reduce noise: (1 bias-dist to model the relative distance between points (instances and classes (relation centers; (2 bias-reward to model the possibility of each heuristically generated label being incorrect. Based on the biases, we propose three noise tolerant models: MIML-dist, MIML-dist-classify, and MIML-reward, building on top of a state-of-the-art distantly supervised learning algorithm. Experimental evaluations compared with three landmark methods on the KBP dataset validate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

  12. Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkers, C.M.; Treur, J.

    To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems,

  13. Use of Video Modeling and Video Prompting Interventions for Teaching Daily Living Skills to Individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorders: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Stephanie; Wolfe, Pamela

    2013-01-01

    Identifying methods to increase the independent functioning of individuals with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) is vital in enhancing their quality of life; teaching students with ASD daily living skills can foster independent functioning. This review examines interventions that implement video modeling and/or prompting to teach individuals with…

  14. Health-related quality of life (HRQOL), activity of daily living (ADL) and depressive mood disorder in temporal lobe epilepsy patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehrner, J; Kalchmayr, R; Serles, W; Olbrich, A; Pataraia, E; Aull, S; Bacher, J; Leutmezer, F; Gröppel, G; Deecke, L; Baumgartner, C

    1999-04-01

    We determined the interrelations of chronological age, age at seizure onset, duration of seizure disorder, cognitive functioning (IQ), scales of activities of daily living, depressive mood disorder and measures of health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Furthermore, we investigated the association of the laterality of seizure onset zone and absence/presence of hippocampal atrophy and/or sclerosis (HA/HS) with measures of HRQOL, activities of daily living (ADL) and depressive mood disorder. In the setting of pre-surgical epilepsy evaluation, a sample of 56 patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) was studied using the Bonner Skalen für Epilepsie (BPSE) and the depression inventory D-S of von Zerssen. Patients reported high levels of dependency on others and poor coping capabilities. Our data also showed specific ADL-behaviour suggesting social withdrawal and isolation. Our results indicate emotional impairment as a major problem in TLE, because 45% of our patients scored in the depressive range of the D-S depression scale. Depression score was found to be a powerful predictor of self-reported quality of life after adjusting for seizure-related variables, demographic variables and cognitive functioning (IQ). The only scale showing a significant laterality effect was ADL-home. No relationship between the dependent measures of HRQOL, ADL-social, ADL-cultural, depressive mood disorder and laterality of the epileptogenic zone or absence/presence of HA/HS was found. HRQOL and depressive mood disorder are strongly interrelated indicating that patients with depressive symptoms report lower quality of life and specific patterns of ADL. HRQOL, ADL and depressive mood disorder are largely independent of biological markers such as laterality of seizure onset zone and absence/presence of HA/HS in TLE.

  15. Relating business modelling and enterprise architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meertens, Lucas Onno

    2013-01-01

    This thesis proposes a methodology for creating business models, evaluating them, and relating them to enterprise architecture. The methodology consists of several steps, leading from an organization’s current situation to a target situation, via business models and enterprise architecture. Current

  16. Models and relations in economics and econometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    1999-01-01

    Based on a money market analysis using the cointegrated VAR model the paper demonstrates some possible pitfalls in macroeconomic inference as a direct consequence of inadequate stochastic model formulation. A number of questions related to concepts such as empirical and theoretical steady-states,...

  17. Relating business modelling and enterprise architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meertens, Lucas Onno

    2013-01-01

    This thesis proposes a methodology for creating business models, evaluating them, and relating them to enterprise architecture. The methodology consists of several steps, leading from an organization’s current situation to a target situation, via business models and enterprise architecture.

  18. Making Daily Mobility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ole B.; Wind, Simon

    , social networks, understanding of places and ultimately ourselves and others. To successfully accomplish everyday life, households have to cope with large number of different activities and mobility in relation to their children, work, social life, obligations, expectations, needs and wishes. Drawing...... practice configurations. The paper draws on empirical material collected from the project ‘Analysis of activity-based travel chains and sustainable mobility’ (ACTUM WP2), consisting of qualitative semi-structured interviews with 45 respondents in 11 children families spread across the Greater Copenhagen...... accomplishing daily life. The study also shows that practices need constant maintenance as they are continuously de-stabilised by changing conditions and situations. This careful and competent work involved in the maintenance and adjustment of daily practices is done in relation to the household member...

  19. The generic model of General Relativity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsamparlis, Michael, E-mail: mtsampa@phys.uoa.g [Department of Physics, Section Astrophysics Astronomy Mechanics, University of Athens, University of Athens, Zografos 15783, Athens (Greece)

    2009-10-01

    We develop a generic spacetime model in General Relativity from which all existing model results are produced under specific assumptions, depending on the case. We classify each type of possible assumption, especially the role of observers and that of symmetries, and discuss their role in the development of a model. We apply the results in a step by step approach to the case of a Bianchi I spacetime and a string fluid.

  20. Relative effectiveness of insulin pump treatment over multiple daily injections and structured education during flexible intensive insulin treatment for type 1 diabetes: cluster randomised trial (REPOSE).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-30

    Objective To compare the effectiveness of insulin pumps with multiple daily injections for adults with type 1 diabetes, with both groups receiving equivalent training in flexible insulin treatment.Design Pragmatic, multicentre, open label, parallel group, cluster randomised controlled trial (Relative Effectiveness of Pumps Over MDI and Structured Education (REPOSE) trial).Setting Eight secondary care centres in England and Scotland.Participants Adults with type 1 diabetes who were willing to undertake intensive insulin treatment, with no preference for pumps or multiple daily injections. Participants were allocated a place on established group training courses that taught flexible intensive insulin treatment ("dose adjustment for normal eating," DAFNE). The course groups (the clusters) were then randomly allocated in pairs to either pump or multiple daily injections.Interventions Participants attended training in flexible insulin treatment (using insulin analogues) structured around the use of pump or injections, followed for two years.Main outcome measures The primary outcomes were a change in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) values (%) at two years in participants with baseline HbA1c value of ≥7.5% (58 mmol/mol), and the proportion of participants achieving an HbA1c value of insulin dose, and episodes of moderate and severe hypoglycaemia. Ancillary outcomes included quality of life and treatment satisfaction.Results 317 participants (46 courses) were randomised (156 pump and 161 injections). 267 attended courses and 260 were included in the intention to treat analysis, of which 235 (119 pump and 116 injection) had baseline HbA1c values of ≥7.5%. Glycaemic control and rates of severe hypoglycaemia improved in both groups. The mean change in HbA1c at two years was -0.85% with pump treatment and -0.42% with multiple daily injections. Adjusting for course, centre, age, sex, and accounting for missing values, the difference was -0.24% (-2.7 mmol/mol) in favour

  1. Inter-daily variability of a strong thermally-driven wind system over the Atacama Desert of South America: synoptic forcing and short-term predictability using the GFS global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacques-Coper, Martín; Falvey, Mark; Muñoz, Ricardo C.

    2015-07-01

    Crucial aspects of a strong thermally-driven wind system in the Atacama Desert in northern Chile during the extended austral winter season (May-September) are studied using 2 years of measurement data from the Sierra Gorda 80-m meteorological mast (SGO, 22° 56' 24″ S; 69° 7' 58″ W, 2,069 m above sea level (a.s.l.)). Daily cycles of atmospheric variables reveal a diurnal (nocturnal) regime, with northwesterly (easterly) flow and maximum mean wind speed of 8 m/s (13 m/s) on average. These distinct regimes are caused by pronounced topographic conditions and the diurnal cycle of the local radiative balance. Wind speed extreme events of each regime are negatively correlated at the inter-daily time scale: High diurnal wind speed values are usually observed together with low nocturnal wind speed values and vice versa. The associated synoptic conditions indicate that upper-level troughs at the coastline of southwestern South America reinforce the diurnal northwesterly wind, whereas mean undisturbed upper-level conditions favor the development of the nocturnal easterly flow. We analyze the skill of the numerical weather model Global Forecast System (GFS) in predicting wind speed at SGO. Although forecasted wind speeds at 800 hPa do show the diurnal and nocturnal phases, observations at 80 m are strongly underestimated by the model. This causes a pronounced daily cycle of root-mean-squared error (RMSE) and bias in the forecasts. After applying a simple Model Output Statistics (MOS) post-processing, we achieve a good representation of the wind speed intra-daily and inter-daily variability, a first step toward reducing the uncertainties related to potential wind energy projects in the region.

  2. Anxiety Sensitivity and Smoking Behavior Among Trauma-Exposed Daily Smokers: The Explanatory Role of Smoking-Related Avoidance and Inflexibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakhshaie, Jafar; Zvolensky, Michael J; Salazar, Adriana; Vujanovic, Anka A; Schmidt, Norman B

    2016-01-01

    Anxiety sensitivity (AS), defined as the extent to which individuals believe that anxiety-related sensations have harmful consequences, is associated with smoking processes and poorer clinical outcomes among trauma-exposed smokers. Yet the specific mechanisms underlying this association are unclear. Smoking-specific avoidance and inflexibility is a construct implicated in multiple manifestations of mood regulation that may underlie smoking behavior. The current study examined the explanatory role of smoking-specific avoidance and inflexibility in terms of the relation between AS and indices of smoking behavior among trauma-exposed smokers. The sample consisted of 217 treatment-seeking adult smokers (44% female; M age = 37.8; SD = 13.2; age range: 18-65 years), who were exposed to at least one lifetime Criterion A trauma event (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders [4th ed., text rev.; DSM-IV-TR] Criterion A for trauma exposure). Bootstrap analysis (5,000 re-samples) revealed that AS was indirectly related to the (a) number of cigarettes smoked per day, (b) number of years being a daily smoker, (c) number of failed quit attempts, and (d) heaviness of smoking index among trauma-exposed smokers through its relation with smoking-specific avoidance and inflexibility. These findings provide initial evidence suggesting that smoking-specific avoidance and inflexibility may be an important construct in better understanding AS-smoking relations among trauma-exposed smokers. Future work is needed to explore the extent to which smoking-specific avoidance and inflexibility account for relations between AS and other smoking processes (e.g., withdrawal, cessation outcome) in the context of trauma and smoking comorbidity.

  3. The Influence of Emotion Regulation on the Relations Between Daily Life Event and Daily Emotion%情绪调节策略对日常生活事件与情绪体验关系影响的多层分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    罗峥; 付俊杰; 熊庆秋; 张腾月

    2012-01-01

    运用经验抽样法对154名大学生的日常情绪体验、生活事件进行为期14天的追踪调查,通过多层线性模型(HLM)探讨日常生活事件与情绪体验的关系及情绪调节策略对二者关系的影响。结果表明:大学生积极情绪体验多于消极情绪体验。在个体内和个体间水平,消极事件都对积极情绪有显著的负向预测作用,对消极情绪有显著的正向预测作用;积极事件对积极情绪有显著的正向预测作用。积极事件对消极情绪的负向预测作用只在个体间水平显著。表达抑制这种情绪调节策略能够增强消极生活事件与?肖极情绪体验的关系。%Emotions are central components of people' s lives, both interpersonally and intrapersonally, and daily life events can have powerful effects on people' s daily emotion, both positive and negative ( Berkowitz , 2003 ; Bolger & Zuckerman, 1995). The Dynamic Model of Affect (DMA) developed by Zautra et al (2005) considered that the experience of emotion always occurred in an environmental context, and in order to understand the dynamics of change in events and affects, data needed to be collected and analyzed to examine within-person relationships. Many individual variables (Mroczek & Almeida, 2004; Zautra, 2005; Dasch et al, 2006; Caston & Mauss, in press), including emotion regulation, can interact with life events to produce daily emotions. The present study investigated the emotion features of college students, the emotional reaction to life events which occurred in everyday life, and the moderator role of emotion regulation on the relation between daily life event and daily emotion. The participants were 154 undergraduates, 18--26 years old, who completed the 10-item Emotion Regulation Questionnaire ( ERQ, Gross & John, 2003) at the beginning of the research. The ERQ assessed individual differences in two emotion-regulation strat- egies : expression

  4. Quantifying the effect of heat stress on daily milk yield and monitoring dynamic changes using an adaptive dynamic model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andre, G.; Engel, B.; Berentsen, P.B.M.; Vellinga, T.V.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

    2011-01-01

    Automation and use of robots are increasingly being used within dairy farming and result in large amounts of real time data. This information provides a base for the new management concept of precision livestock farming. From 2003 to 2006, time series of herd mean daily milk yield were collected on

  5. MARKOV CHAIN MODEL FOR PROBABILITY OF DRY, WET DAYS AND STATISTICAL ANALISIS OF DAILY RAINFALL IN SOME CLIMATIC ZONE OF IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. SHAHRAKI

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Water scarcity is a major problem in arid and semi-arid areas. The scarcity of water is further stressed by the growing demand due to increase in population growth in developing countries. Climate change and its outcomes on precipitation and water resources is the other problem in these areas. Several models are widely used for modeling daily precipitation occurrence. In this study, Markov Chain Model has been extensively used to study spell distribution. For this purpose, a day period was considered as the optimum length of time. Given the assumption that the Markov chain model is the right model for daily precipitation occurrence, the choice of Markov model order was examined on a daily basis for 4 synoptic weather stations with different climates in Iran (Gorgan, Khorram Abad, Zahedan, Tabrizduring 1978-2009. Based on probability rules, events possibility of sequential dry and wet days, these data were analyzed by stochastic process and Markov Chain method. Then probability matrix was calculated by maximum likelihood method. The possibility continuing2-5days of dry and wet days were calculated. The results showed that the probability maximum of consecutive dry period and climatic probability of dry days has occurred in Zahedan. The probability of consecutive dry period has fluctuated from 73.3 to 100 percent. Climatic probability of occurrence of dry days would change in the range of 70.96 to 100 percent with the average probability of about 90.45 percent.

  6. Making Daily Mobility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ole B.; Wind, Simon

    ’s normative and affective orientation towards daily mobility, spanning from being a ‘waste of time’ to being a ‘meaningful’ activity. For instance, besides fulfilling a practical purpose, mobility practices are often ‘mobile-with’ constellations of synchronised, however temporal, movement and thus household......In 2012 the average daily transportation distance for every Dane were 40 km (TU Data). Realising how much of life is spend thinking about, planning and performing mobility practices it becomes evident that it is much more than an instrumental physical phenomenon – it has great repercussions on life......, social networks, understanding of places and ultimately ourselves and others. To successfully accomplish everyday life, households have to cope with large number of different activities and mobility in relation to their children, work, social life, obligations, expectations, needs and wishes. Drawing...

  7. Modelling anisotropic fluid spheres in general relativity

    CERN Document Server

    Boonserm, Petarpa; Visser, Matt

    2015-01-01

    We argue that an arbitrary general relativistic anisotropic fluid sphere, (spherically symmetric but with transverse pressure not equal to radial pressure), can nevertheless be successfully modelled by suitable linear combinations of quite ordinary classical matter: an isotropic perfect fluid, a classical electromagnetic field, and a classical (minimally coupled) scalar field. While the most general decomposition is not unique, a preferred minimal decomposition can be constructed that is unique. We show how the classical energy conditions for the anisotropic fluid sphere can be related to energy conditions for the isotropic perfect fluid, electromagnetic field, and scalar field components of the model. Furthermore we show how this decomposition relates to the distribution of electric charge density and scalar charge density throughout the model that is used to mimic the anisotropic fluid sphere. Consequently, we can build physically reasonable matter models for almost any spherically symmetric spacetime.

  8. Modeling Relational Data via Latent Factor Blockmodel

    CERN Document Server

    Gao, Sheng; Gallinari, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we address the problem of modeling relational data, which appear in many applications such as social network analysis, recommender systems and bioinformatics. Previous studies either consider latent feature based models but disregarding local structure in the network, or focus exclusively on capturing local structure of objects based on latent blockmodels without coupling with latent characteristics of objects. To combine the benefits of the previous work, we propose a novel model that can simultaneously incorporate the effect of latent features and covariates if any, as well as the effect of latent structure that may exist in the data. To achieve this, we model the relation graph as a function of both latent feature factors and latent cluster memberships of objects to collectively discover globally predictive intrinsic properties of objects and capture latent block structure in the network to improve prediction performance. We also develop an optimization transfer algorithm based on the general...

  9. Performance of the Angstrom-Prescott Model (A-P) and SVM and ANN techniques to estimate daily global solar irradiation in Botucatu/SP/Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Maurício Bruno Prado; Francisco Escobedo, João; Juliana Rossi, Taiza; dos Santos, Cícero Manoel; da Silva, Sílvia Helena Modenese Gorla

    2017-07-01

    This study describes the comparative study of different methods for estimating daily global solar irradiation (H): Angstrom-Prescott (A-P) model and two Machine Learning techniques (ML) - Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The H database was measured from 1996 to 2011 in Botucatu/SP/Brazil. Different combinations of input variables were adopted. MBE, RMSE, d Willmott, r and r2 statistical indicators obtained in the validation of A-P and SVM and ANN models showed that: SVM technique has better performance in estimating H than A-P and ANN models. A-P model has better performance in estimating H than ANN.

  10. Nonparametric temporal downscaling with event-based population generating algorithm for RCM daily precipitation to hourly: Model development and performance evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Taesam; Park, Taewoong

    2017-04-01

    It is critical to downscale temporally coarse GCM or RCM outputs (e.g., monthly or daily) to fine time scales, such as sub-daily or hourly. Recently, a temporal downscaling model employing a nonparametric framework (NTD) with k-nearest resampling and a genetic algorithm has been developed to preserve key statistics as well as the diurnal cycle. However, this model's usage can be limited in estimating precipitation for design storms or floods because the key statistics of annual maximum precipitation (AMP), especially for longer hourly durations, present a systematic bias that cannot be preserved due to the discontinuity of multiday consecutive precipitation events in the downscaling procedure. In the current study, we develop an approach to downscale a consecutive daily precipitation at once focusing on the reproduction of AMP totals for different durations instead of day-by-day downscaling. The proposed model has been verified with the precipitation datasets for the 60 stations across South Korea over the period 1979-2005. Additionally, two validation studies were performed with the recent datasets of 2006-2014 and nearest neighbor stations. The verification and the two validation tests conclude that the population-based NTD (PNTD) model proposed in the current study is superior to the existing NTD model in preserving the key statistics of the observed AMP series and suitable for downscaling future climate scenarios.

  11. Effects of neurofeedback and computer-assisted cognitive rehabilitation on relative brain wave ratios and activities of daily living of stroke patients: a randomized control trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Hwi-Young; Kim, Ki-Tae; Jung, Jin-Hwa

    2016-01-01

    [Purpose] This study investigated the effects of neurofeedback (NFB) and computer-assisted cognitive rehabilitation (CACR) on the relative brain wave ratios and activities of daily living (ADL) of stroke patients. [Subjects and Methods] Forty-four participants were randomly allocated to the NFB (n=14), CACR (n=14), or control (CON) (n=16) groups. Two expert therapists provided the NFB, CACR, and CON groups with traditional rehabilitation therapy in 30-minute sessions, 5 times a week, for 6 weeks. NFB training was provided only to the NFB group and CACR training was provided only to the CACR group. The CON group received traditional rehabilitation therapy only. Before and after 6 weeks of intervention, brain wave and ADL evaluations were performed, and the results were analyzed. [Results] The relative ratio of beta waves, only showed a significant increase in the frontal and parietal areas of the NFB group. Significant changes in ADL were shown by all three groups after the intervention. However, there were no significant differences between the NFB and CACR groups and the CON group. [Conclusion] Our results suggest that CACR and NFB are effective at improving cognitive function and ADL of stroke patients. PMID:27512287

  12. Inteligent estimation of daily evapotranspiration susing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharifan, H.; Dehghani, A. A.

    2009-04-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the parameters in water resources management which is attractive for design of irrigation systems. Due to interaction between meteorology parameter, there are nonlinear relations for assessing the evapotraqnspiration. Artifical neural networks are innovative approaches for estimation and prediction by using learning concept. In this study, by using the daily data of Gorgan synoptical station in Golestan province/ Iran the multilayer perceptron with back propagation learning rule was trained. Five different ANN models comprision various combinations of daily climate variable, i. e. air temperature, sunshine, wind speed and humidity was developed to evaluate degree of effect of each input variables on ET. A comparison is made between the estimated provide by ANN models and ET-values estimated by FAO-Penman-Monteith (F-P-M) method. The results show that ANN models perform better than experimental relation. Keyword : Evapotranspiration, Artifical neural network, Penman-Manteith, Gorgan.

  13. Animal models of age related macular degeneration

    OpenAIRE

    Pennesi, Mark E.; Neuringer, Martha; Courtney, Robert J.

    2012-01-01

    Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of vision loss of those over the age of 65 in the industrialized world. The prevalence and need to develop effective treatments for AMD has lead to the development of multiple animal models. AMD is a complex and heterogeneous disease that involves the interaction of both genetic and environmental factors with the unique anatomy of the human macula. Models in mice, rats, rabbits, pigs and non-human primates have recreated many of the ...

  14. Bias Modeling for Distantly Supervised Relation Extraction

    OpenAIRE

    Yang Xiang; Yaoyun Zhang; Xiaolong Wang; Yang Qin; Wenying Han

    2015-01-01

    Distant supervision (DS) automatically annotates free text with relation mentions from existing knowledge bases (KBs), providing a way to alleviate the problem of insufficient training data for relation extraction in natural language processing (NLP). However, the heuristic annotation process does not guarantee the correctness of the generated labels, promoting a hot research issue on how to efficiently make use of the noisy training data. In this paper, we model two types of biases to reduce...

  15. Developing a Robotic Service System by Applying a User Model-Based Application for Supporting Daily Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yihsin Ho

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available We developed a robotic service system by applying a user model‐based application for supporting daily life. Our robotic service system is designed to provide appropriate services to users depending on their needs; thus, we applied a user model‐based application, which can help to select and filter user information for our system in order to provide appropriate services to users.

  16. Evaluation and adjustment of description of denitrification in the DailyDayCent and COUP models based on N2 and N2O laboratory incubation system measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosz, Balázs; Well, Reinhard; Dannenmann, Michael; Dechow, René; Kitzler, Barbara; Michel, Kerstin; Reent Köster, Jan

    2017-04-01

    Denitrification is an anaerobic key process by microbes where the NO3- is step-by-step reduced and emitted as NO, N2O and finally N2 gas from the soil. The accurate knowledge of the reduction of nitrate (NO3-) and nitrite (NO2-) to N2O and molecular N2 is important because the N2O fraction is further reduced to N2 and constitutes the main emission source of this greenhouse gas from agricultural soils. Hence, our understanding and ability to quantify soil denitrification is crucial for mitigating nitrogen fertilizer loss as well as for reducing N2O emissions. Models can be an important tool to predict mitigation effects and help to develop climate smart mitigation strategies. Ideally, commonly used biogeochemical models could provide adequate predictions of denitrification processes of agricultural soils but often simplified process descriptions and inadequate model parameters prevent models from simulating adequate fluxes of N2 and N2O on field scale. Model development and parametrization often suffers from limited availability of empirical data describing denitrification processes in agricultural soils. While in many studies N2O emissions are used to develop and train models, detailed measurements on NO, N2O, N2 fluxes and concentrations and related soil conditions are necessary to develop and test adequate model algorithms. Composition of denitrifying communities, coinciding effects of management and local conditions on the development of denitrification hotspots are highly variable in space and time. To address this issue the coordinated research unit „Denitrification in Agricultural Soils: Integrated Control and Modelling at Various Scales (DASIM)" was initiated to more closely investigate N-fluxes caused by denitrification in response to environmental effects, soil properties and microbial communities. Data suitable to validate denitrification models are still scarce due to previous technical and/or methodical limitations of measuring N2 fluxes, but large

  17. The biological control of voluntary exercise, spontaneous physical activity and daily energy expenditure in relation to obesity: human and rodent perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garland, Theodore; Schutz, Heidi; Chappell, Mark A.; Keeney, Brooke K.; Meek, Thomas H.; Copes, Lynn E.; Acosta, Wendy; Drenowatz, Clemens; Maciel, Robert C.; van Dijk, Gertjan; Kotz, Catherine M.; Eisenmann, Joey C.

    2011-01-01

    Mammals expend energy in many ways, including basic cellular maintenance and repair, digestion, thermoregulation, locomotion, growth and reproduction. These processes can vary tremendously among species and individuals, potentially leading to large variation in daily energy expenditure (DEE). Locomotor energy costs can be substantial for large-bodied species and those with high-activity lifestyles. For humans in industrialized societies, locomotion necessary for daily activities is often relatively low, so it has been presumed that activity energy expenditure and DEE are lower than in our ancestors. Whether this is true and has contributed to a rise in obesity is controversial. In humans, much attention has centered on spontaneous physical activity (SPA) or non-exercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT), the latter sometimes defined so broadly as to include all energy expended due to activity, exclusive of volitional exercise. Given that most people in Western societies engage in little voluntary exercise, increasing NEAT may be an effective way to maintain DEE and combat overweight and obesity. One way to promote NEAT is to decrease the amount of time spent on sedentary behaviours (e.g. watching television). The effects of voluntary exercise on other components of physical activity are highly variable in humans, partly as a function of age, and have rarely been studied in rodents. However, most rodent studies indicate that food consumption increases in the presence of wheels; therefore, other aspects of physical activity are not reduced enough to compensate for the energetic cost of wheel running. Most rodent studies also show negative effects of wheel access on body fat, especially in males. Sedentary behaviours per se have not been studied in rodents in relation to obesity. Several lines of evidence demonstrate the important role of dopamine, in addition to other neural signaling networks (e.g. the endocannabinoid system), in the control of voluntary exercise. A

  18. The biological control of voluntary exercise, spontaneous physical activity and daily energy expenditure in relation to obesity: human and rodent perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garland, Theodore; Schutz, Heidi; Chappell, Mark A; Keeney, Brooke K; Meek, Thomas H; Copes, Lynn E; Acosta, Wendy; Drenowatz, Clemens; Maciel, Robert C; van Dijk, Gertjan; Kotz, Catherine M; Eisenmann, Joey C

    2011-01-15

    Mammals expend energy in many ways, including basic cellular maintenance and repair, digestion, thermoregulation, locomotion, growth and reproduction. These processes can vary tremendously among species and individuals, potentially leading to large variation in daily energy expenditure (DEE). Locomotor energy costs can be substantial for large-bodied species and those with high-activity lifestyles. For humans in industrialized societies, locomotion necessary for daily activities is often relatively low, so it has been presumed that activity energy expenditure and DEE are lower than in our ancestors. Whether this is true and has contributed to a rise in obesity is controversial. In humans, much attention has centered on spontaneous physical activity (SPA) or non-exercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT), the latter sometimes defined so broadly as to include all energy expended due to activity, exclusive of volitional exercise. Given that most people in Western societies engage in little voluntary exercise, increasing NEAT may be an effective way to maintain DEE and combat overweight and obesity. One way to promote NEAT is to decrease the amount of time spent on sedentary behaviours (e.g. watching television). The effects of voluntary exercise on other components of physical activity are highly variable in humans, partly as a function of age, and have rarely been studied in rodents. However, most rodent studies indicate that food consumption increases in the presence of wheels; therefore, other aspects of physical activity are not reduced enough to compensate for the energetic cost of wheel running. Most rodent studies also show negative effects of wheel access on body fat, especially in males. Sedentary behaviours per se have not been studied in rodents in relation to obesity. Several lines of evidence demonstrate the important role of dopamine, in addition to other neural signaling networks (e.g. the endocannabinoid system), in the control of voluntary exercise. A

  19. Exploring the modeling of spatiotemporal variations in ambient air pollution within the land use regression framework: Estimation of PM10 concentrations on a daily basis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alam, Md Saniul; McNabola, Aonghus

    2015-05-01

    Estimation of daily average exposure to PM10 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameterland use regression (LUR) approach to deal with temporal changes in air pollution and the influence of transboundary air pollution on short-term variations in PM10. Using the concept of multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling, the average daily concentrations of PM10 in two European cities, Vienna and Dublin, were modeled. Models were initially developed using the standard MLR approach in Vienna using the most recently available data. Efforts were subsequently made to (i) assess the stability of model predictions over time; (ii) explores the applicability of nonparametric regression (NPR) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) to deal with the nonlinearity of input variables. The predictive performance of the MLR models of the both cities was demonstrated to be stable over time and to produce similar results. However, NPR and ANN were found to have more improvement in the predictive performance in both cities. Using ANN produced the highest result, with daily PM10 exposure predicted at R2=66% for Vienna and 51% for Dublin. In addition, two new predictor variables were also assessed for the Dublin model. The variables representing transboundary air pollution and peak traffic count were found to account for 6.5% and 12.7% of the variation in average daily PM10 concentration. The variable representing transboundary air pollution that was derived from air mass history (from back-trajectory analysis) and population density has demonstrated a positive impact on model performance. The implications of this research would suggest that it is possible to produce a model of ambient air quality on a citywide scale using the readily available data. Most European cities typically have a limited FSM network with average daily concentrations of air pollutants as well as available meteorological, traffic, and land-use data. This research highlights that using these data in combination with

  20. Mechanical Models of Fault-Related Folding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, A. M.

    2003-01-09

    The subject of the proposed research is fault-related folding and ground deformation. The results are relevant to oil-producing structures throughout the world, to understanding of damage that has been observed along and near earthquake ruptures, and to earthquake-producing structures in California and other tectonically-active areas. The objectives of the proposed research were to provide both a unified, mechanical infrastructure for studies of fault-related foldings and to present the results in computer programs that have graphical users interfaces (GUIs) so that structural geologists and geophysicists can model a wide variety of fault-related folds (FaRFs).

  1. Relationship between daily pain and affect in women with rheumatoid arthritis: lower optimism as a vulnerability factor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwissa-Gajewska, Zuzanna; Gruszczyńska, Ewa

    2017-07-17

    The aim of the study was to examine the moderating effect of optimism on the relationship between daily pain-daily affect. Fifty-four female patients with rheumatoid arthritis completed self-report measures of optimism (once), daily pain and daily positive and negative affect for 7 consecutive days during hospitalization. Results of multilevel random coefficients modeling demonstrated a significant cross-level interaction for daily negative affect only. Simple slopes analysis revealed that low optimism was related to a stronger positive relationship between daily pain and daily negative affect, whereas this effect was insignificant for higher optimism. High optimism was also related to higher daily positive affect, regardless of pain level. These findings suggest that low optimism may be a vulnerability factor in the daily pain-daily affect relationship rather than high optimism acting as a protective factor.

  2. Integrating Map Algebra and Statistical Modeling for Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Monthly Mean Daily Incident Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) over a Complex Terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evrendilek, Fatih

    2007-01-01

    This study aims at quantifying spatio-temporal dynamics of monthly mean daily incident photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) over a vast and complex terrain such as Turkey. The spatial interpolation method of universal kriging, and the combination of multiple linear regression (MLR) models and map algebra techniques were implemented to generate surface maps of PAR with a grid resolution of 500 × 500 m as a function of five geographical and 14 climatic variables. Performance of the geostatistical and MLR models was compared using mean prediction error (MPE), root-mean-square prediction error (RMSPE), average standard prediction error (ASE), mean standardized prediction error (MSPE), root-mean-square standardized prediction error (RMSSPE), and adjusted coefficient of determination (R2adj.). The best-fit MLR- and universal kriging-generated models of monthly mean daily PAR were validated against an independent 37-year observed dataset of 35 climate stations derived from 160 stations across Turkey by the Jackknifing method. The spatial variability patterns of monthly mean daily incident PAR were more accurately reflected in the surface maps created by the MLR-based models than in those created by the universal kriging method, in particular, for spring (May) and autumn (November). The MLR-based spatial interpolation algorithms of PAR described in this study indicated the significance of the multifactor approach to understanding and mapping spatio-temporal dynamics of PAR for a complex terrain over meso-scales.

  3. Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkers, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2008-01-01

    To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems, on t

  4. Daily changes of radon concentration in soil gas under influence of atmospheric factors: room temperature, soil surface temperature and relative humidity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lara, Evelise G.; Oliveira, Arno Heeren de, E-mail: evelise.lara@gmail.com, E-mail: heeren@nuclear.ufmg.br [Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Departamento de Engenharia Nuclear; Rocha, Zildete; Rios, Francisco Javier, E-mail: rochaz@cdtn.br, E-mail: javier@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    This work aims at relating the daily change in the radon concentration in soil gas in a Red Yellow Acrisol (SiBCS) under influence of atmospheric factors: room temperature, soil surface temperature and relative humidity. The {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th, U content and permeability were also performed. The measurements of radon soil gas were carried out by using an AlphaGUARD monitor. The {sup 226}Ra activity concentration was made by Gamma Spectrometry (HPGe); the permeability was carried out using the RADON-JOK permeameter and ICP-MS analysis to {sup 232}Th and U content. The soil permeability is 5.0 x 10{sup -12}, which is considered average. The {sup 226}Ra (22.2 ± 0.3 Bq.m{sup -3}); U content (73.4 ± 3.6 Bq.kg{sup -1}) and {sup 232}Th content (55.3 ± 4.0 Bq.kg{sup -1}) were considered above of average concentrations, according to mean values for soils typical (~ 35.0 Bq.kg{sup -1}) by UNSCEAR. The results showed a difference of 26.0% between the highest and the lowest concentration of radon in soil gas: at midnight (15.5 ± 1.0 kBq.m{sup -3}) and 3:00 pm, the highest mean radon concentration (21.0 ± 1.0 kBq.m{sup -3}). The room temperature and surface soil temperature showed equivalent behavior and the surface soil temperature slightly below room temperature during the entire monitoring time. Nevertheless, the relative humidity showed the highest cyclical behavior, showing a higher relationship with the radon concentration in soil gas. (author)

  5. An analysis of the daily precipitation variability in the Himalayan orogen using a statistical parameterisation and its potential in driving landscape evolution models with stochastic climatic forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deal, Eric; Braun, Jean

    2015-04-01

    A current challenge in landscape evolution modelling is to integrate realistic precipitation patterns and behaviour into longterm fluvial erosion models. The effect of precipitation on fluvial erosion can be subtle as well as nonlinear, implying that changes in climate (e.g. precipitation magnitude or storminess) may have unexpected outcomes in terms of erosion rates. For example Tucker and Bras (2000) show theoretically that changes in the variability of precipitation (storminess) alone can influence erosion rate across a landscape. To complicate the situation further, topography, ultimately driven by tectonic uplift but shaped by erosion, has a major influence on the distribution and style of precipitation. Therefore, in order to untangle the coupling between climate, erosion and tectonics in an actively uplifting orogen where fluvial erosion is dominant it is important to understand how the 'rain dial' used in a landscape evolution model (LEM) corresponds to real precipitation patterns. One issue with the parameterisation of rainfall for use in an LEM is the difference between the timescales for precipitation (≤ 1 year) and landscape evolution (> 103 years). As a result, precipitation patterns must be upscaled before being integrated into a model. The relevant question then becomes: What is the most appropriate measure of precipitation on a millennial timescale? Previous work (Tucker and Bras, 2000; Lague, 2005) has shown that precipitation can be properly upscaled by taking into account its variable nature, along with its average magnitude. This captures the relative size and frequency of extreme events, ensuring a more accurate characterisation of the integrated effects of precipitation on erosion over long periods of time. In light of this work, we present a statistical parameterisation that accurately models the mean and daily variability of ground based (APHRODITE) and remotely sensed (TRMM) precipitation data in the Himalayan orogen with only a few

  6. Greater Independence in Activities of Daily Living is Associated with Higher Health-Related Quality of Life Scores in Nursing Home Residents with Dementia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charice S. Chan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Health-related quality of life (HRQL for nursing home residents is important, however, the concept of quality of life is broad, encompasses many domains and is difficult to assess in people with dementia. Basic activities of daily living (ADL are measured routinely in nursing homes using the Resident Assessment Instrument-Minimum Data Set Version 2.0 (RAI-MDS and Functional Independence Measure (FIM instrument. We examined the relationship between HRQL and ADL to assess the future possibility of ADL dependency level serving as a surrogate measure of HRQL in residents with dementia. To assess ADL, measures derived from the RAI-MDS and FIM data were gathered for 111 residents at the beginning of our study and at 6-month follow-up. Higher scores for independence in ADL were correlated with higher scores for a disease-specific HRQL measure, the Quality of Life—Alzheimer’s Disease Scale. Preliminary evidence suggests that FIM-assessed ADL is associated with HRQL for these residents. The associations of the dressing and toileting items with HRQL were particularly strong. This finding suggests the importance of ADL function in HRQL. The RAI-MDS ADL scales should be used with caution to evaluate HRQL.

  7. Evaluating Southern Ocean biological production in two ocean biogeochemical models on daily to seasonal time-scales using satellite surface chlorophyll and O2/Ar observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. F. Jonsson

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We assess the ability of ocean biogeochemical models to represent seasonal structures in biomass and net community production (NCP in the Southern Ocean. Two models are compared to observations on daily to seasonal time scales in four different sections of the region. We use daily satellite fields of Chlorophyll (Chl as a proxy for biomass, and in-situ observations of O2 and Ar supersaturation (ΔO2Ar to estimate NCP. ΔO2Ar is converted to the flux of biologically generated O2 from sea to air ("O2 bioflux". All data are aggregated to a climatological year with a daily resolution. To account for potential regional differences within the Southern Ocean, we conduct separate analyses of sections south of South Africa, around the Drake Passage, south of Australia, and south of New Zealand. We find that the models simulate the upper range of Chl concentrations well, underestimate spring levels significantly, and show differences in skill between early and late parts of the growing season. While there is a great deal of scatter in the bioflux observations in general, the four sectors each have distinct patterns that the models pick up. Neither model exhibit a significant distinction between the Australian and New Zealand sectors, and between the Drake Passage and African sectors. South of 60° S, the models fail to predict the observed extent of biological O2 undersaturation. We suggest that this shortcoming may be due either to problems with the ecosystem dynamics or problems with the vertical transport of oxygen. Overall, the bioflux observations are in general agreement with the seasonal structures in satellite chlorophyll, suggesting that this seasonality represent changes in carbon biomass and not Chl : C ratios. This agreement is shared in the models and allows us to interpret the seasonal structure of satellite chlorophyll as qualitatively reflecting the integral of biological production over time for the purposes of model assessment.

  8. Low bone mineral density in COPD patients with osteoporosis is related to low daily physical activity and high COPD assessment test scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu WT

    2015-09-01

    , all P<0.05 and T-score (r=0.471, 0.531, 0.459, respectively, all P<0.05, whereas CAT scores were significantly negatively correlated with (total hip and femoral neck BMD (r=-0.412, -0.552, respectively, P<0.05 and (lumbar spine, total hip, and femoral neck T-score (r=-0.389, -0.429, -0.543, respectively, P<0.05. Low femoral neck BMD in COPD patients was related to high CAT scores. Our results show no significant difference in desaturation index, low SpO2, and inflammatory markers (IL-6, TNF-α, IL-8/CXCL8, CRP, and 8-isoprostane between the two groups. Chest physicians should be aware that COPD patients with OP have low DPA and high CAT scores.Keywords: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, osteoporosis, daily physical activity, COPD assessment test, bone mineral density

  9. Using a generalized additive model with autoregressive terms to study the effects of daily temperature on mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Lei

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Generalized Additive Model (GAM provides a flexible and effective technique for modelling nonlinear time-series in studies of the health effects of environmental factors. However, GAM assumes that errors are mutually independent, while time series can be correlated in adjacent time points. Here, a GAM with Autoregressive terms (GAMAR is introduced to fill this gap. Methods Parameters in GAMAR are estimated by maximum partial likelihood using modified Newton’s method, and the difference between GAM and GAMAR is demonstrated using two simulation studies and a real data example. GAMM is also compared to GAMAR in simulation study 1. Results In the simulation studies, the bias of the mean estimates from GAM and GAMAR are similar but GAMAR has better coverage and smaller relative error. While the results from GAMM are similar to GAMAR, the estimation procedure of GAMM is much slower than GAMAR. In the case study, the Pearson residuals from the GAM are correlated, while those from GAMAR are quite close to white noise. In addition, the estimates of the temperature effects are different between GAM and GAMAR. Conclusions GAMAR incorporates both explanatory variables and AR terms so it can quantify the nonlinear impact of environmental factors on health outcome as well as the serial correlation between the observations. It can be a useful tool in environmental epidemiological studies.

  10. The biological control of voluntary exercise, spontaneous physical activity and daily energy expenditure in relation to obesity : human and rodent perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garland, Theodore; Schutz, Heidi; Chappell, Mark A.; Keeney, Brooke K.; Meek, Thomas H.; Copes, Lynn E.; Acosta, Wendy; Drenowatz, Clemens; Maciel, Robert C.; van Dijk, Gertjan; Kotz, Catherine M.; Eisenmann, Joey C.; Garland, Jr.

    2011-01-01

    Mammals expend energy in many ways, including basic cellular maintenance and repair, digestion, thermoregulation, locomotion, growth and reproduction. These processes can vary tremendously among species and individuals, potentially leading to large variation in daily energy expenditure (DEE). Locomo

  11. The biological control of voluntary exercise, spontaneous physical activity and daily energy expenditure in relation to obesity : human and rodent perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garland, Theodore; Schutz, Heidi; Chappell, Mark A.; Keeney, Brooke K.; Meek, Thomas H.; Copes, Lynn E.; Acosta, Wendy; Drenowatz, Clemens; Maciel, Robert C.; van Dijk, Gertjan; Kotz, Catherine M.; Eisenmann, Joey C.; Garland, Jr.

    2011-01-01

    Mammals expend energy in many ways, including basic cellular maintenance and repair, digestion, thermoregulation, locomotion, growth and reproduction. These processes can vary tremendously among species and individuals, potentially leading to large variation in daily energy expenditure (DEE). Locomo

  12. Animal models of age related macular degeneration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennesi, Mark E; Neuringer, Martha; Courtney, Robert J

    2012-08-01

    Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of vision loss of those over the age of 65 in the industrialized world. The prevalence and need to develop effective treatments for AMD has lead to the development of multiple animal models. AMD is a complex and heterogeneous disease that involves the interaction of both genetic and environmental factors with the unique anatomy of the human macula. Models in mice, rats, rabbits, pigs and non-human primates have recreated many of the histological features of AMD and provided much insight into the underlying pathological mechanisms of this disease. In spite of the large number of models developed, no one model yet recapitulates all of the features of human AMD. However, these models have helped reveal the roles of chronic oxidative damage, inflammation and immune dysregulation, and lipid metabolism in the development of AMD. Models for induced choroidal neovascularization have served as the backbone for testing new therapies. This article will review the diversity of animal models that exist for AMD as well as their strengths and limitations.

  13. Temporal disaggregation of daily precipitation for hydrological modelling under data scarcity conditions by using data from neighboring station as a reference for Chaohu, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janabi, Firas Al; Bista, Anukampa; Helm, Bjoern; Krebs, Peter; Bernhofer, Christian

    2017-04-01

    The demand for high-resolution precipitation data at temporal scales fluctuating from daily to hourly or even higher resolution is an enormous problem for hydrological modelling. For many locations around the globe, rainfall data quality and quantity are very poor, and consistent measurements are only available at a coarse time resolution. Models for spatially interpolating hourly precipitation data and temporally disaggregating daily precipitation to hourly data have developed for application to multisite scenarios at Chaohu watershed scale. The specialized tool for rainfall disaggregation, in particular at fine time scales, has been examined in more detail. Disaggregation tool called DiMoN based on multiplicative random cascade model used to disaggregate rain data from Chaohu, China whose meteorological data are scarce. A special disaggregation technique, which, instead of using simultaneously both coarser and finer time scales in one mathematical expression, couples independent stochastic model, at each time scale, have been further analyzed. According to the absence of hourly data at Chaohu station, Data from a station called Luogang, approximately 57 kilometers from Chaohu have been used as a reference station for disaggregation of daily values of Chaohu into hourly and 15 minutes resolution. Correlation between observed and model generated data have been found to be 0.84 and 0.77 for hourly and 15 minutes resolution respectively. NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency), RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), and RSR (RMSE-observation standard deviation ratio) shows that the model has generated data within an acceptable range. Improvement in the model performance has been demonstrated by the use of finer resolution of longer time series from Chaohu itself. Keywords: Disaggregation, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, Root Mean Square Error, RSR, Uncertainty

  14. Short-term effects of daily air pollution on mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan Mahiyuddin, Wan Rozita; Sahani, Mazrura; Aripin, Rasimah; Latif, Mohd Talib; Thach, Thuan-Quoc; Wong, Chit-Ming

    2013-02-01

    The daily variations of air pollutants in the Klang Valley, Malaysia, which includes Kuala Lumpur were investigated for its association with mortality counts using time series analysis. This study located in the tropic with much less seasonal variation than typically seen in more temperate climates. Data on daily mortality for the Klang Valley (2000-2006), daily mean concentrations of air pollutants of PM10, SO2, CO, NO2, O3, daily maximum O3 and meteorological conditions were obtained from Malaysian Department of Environment. We examined the association between pollutants and daily mortality using Poisson regression while controlling for time trends and meteorological factors. Effects of the pollutants (Relative Risk, RR) on current-day (lag 0) mortality to seven previous days (lag 7) and the effects of the pollutants from the first two days (lag 01) to the first eight days (lag 07) were determined. We found significant associations in the single-pollutant model for PM10 and the daily mean O3 with natural mortality. For the daily mean O3, the highest association was at lag 05 (RR = 1.0215, 95% CI = 1.0013-1.0202). CO was found not significantly associated with natural mortality, however the RR's of CO were found to be consistently higher than PM10. In spite of significant results of PM10, the magnitude of RR's of PM10 was not important for natural mortality in comparison with either daily mean O3 or CO. There is an association between daily mean O3 and natural mortality in a two-pollutants model after adjusting for PM10. Most pollutants except SO2, were significantly associated with respiratory mortality in a single pollutant model. Daily mean O3 is also important for respiratory mortality, with over 10% of mortality associated with every IQR increased. These findings are noteworthy because seasonal confounding is unlikely in this relatively stable climate, by contrast with more temperate regions.

  15. HIV/AIDS-related attitudes and oral impacts on daily performances: a cross-sectional study of Sudanese adult dental patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasir, Elwalid F; Marthinussen, Mihaela C; Åstrøm, Anne N

    2013-08-26

    Few studies have investigated the relationships between HIV-related knowledge, fear of contagion in dental environments and Oral Impacts on Daily Performance (OIDP) among dental patients. Our objectives were to investigate the associations between HIV-related knowledge and fear of contagion in dental environments and OIDP among dental patients, and to evaluate whether those associations were modified by the frequency of dental service attendance. A total of 1262 patients (mean age 30.7 years, 56.5% females) were recruited from the Khartoum Dental Teaching Hospital and the University of Science and Technology during March-July 2008. The participants underwent a full-mouth oral clinical examination and completed an interview in a face-to-face setting. Of the study participants, 41.4% had visited a dentist at least twice during the last 2 years, 96.2% had caries experience (DT > 0) and 79.1% reported oral impacts (OIDP > 0). The most frequently reported oral impacts were problems eating, sleeping and cleaning teeth. In total, 26.3% of the participants had HIV transmission knowledge, 75.6% knew people with HIV/AIDS and 58.7% perceived a high risk of cross-infection in dental environments. After adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, frequency of dental service attendance and caries experience, patients who had high HIV-related information exposure, a positive attitude toward people with HIV/AIDS and a high perceived risk of cross-infection were more likely to report oral impacts, whereas patients who knew people with HIV/AIDS were less likely to report oral impacts. The association between OIDP and HIV transmission knowledge was modified by frequency of dental service attendance. Dental patients who were informed about HIV and had a high HIV/AIDS risk perception were more likely to report impaired oral health-related quality of life than their less informed counterparts and those who perceived a low risk of contagion. The effect of HIV transmission knowledge

  16. Constitutive relations for multiphase flow modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacobs, H.; Vaeth, L.; Thurnay, K. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbH Technik und Umwelt (Germany). Inst. fuer Neutronenphysik und Reaktortechnik

    1998-01-01

    The constitutive relations that are used in the three-field fluid dynamics code IVA-KA for determining the drag in three-phase mixtures and the heat transferred by radiation are described together with some comparisons of calculational results with experiments. In these experiments (QUEOS), large quantities of solid particles are injected into water. Potential deficiencies of the present drag model are discussed. (author)

  17. Genetic parameters of a random regression model for daily feed intake of performance tested French Landrace and Large White growing pigs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hofer Andreas

    2001-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Daily feed intake data of 1 279 French Landrace (FL, 1 039 boars and 240 castrates and 2 417 Large White (LW, 2 032 boars and 385 castrates growing pigs were recorded with electronic feed dispensers in three French central testing stations from 1992–1994. Male (35 to 95 kg live body weight or castrated (100 kg live body weight group housed, ad libitum fed pigs were performance tested. A quadratic polynomial in days on test with fixed regressions for sex and batch, random regressions for additive genetic, pen, litter and individual permanent environmental effects was used, with two different models for the residual variance: constant in model 1 and modelled with a quadratic polynomial depending on the day on test dm as follows in model 2: . Variance components were estimated from weekly means of daily feed intake by means of a Bayesian analysis using Gibbs sampling. Posterior means of (covariances were calculated using 800 000 samples from four chains (200 000 each. Heritability estimates of regression coefficients were 0.30 (FL model 1, 0.21 (FL model 2, 0.14 (LW1 and 0.14 (LW2 for the intercept, 0.04 (FL1, 0.04 (FL2, 0.11 (LW1 and 0.06 (LW2 for the linear, 0.03 (FL1, 0.04 (FL2 0.11 (LW1 and 0.06 (LW2 for the quadratic term. Heritability estimates for weekly means of daily feed intake were the lowest in week 4 (FL1: 0.11, FL2: 0.11 and week 1 (LW1: 0.09, LW2: 0.10, and the highest in week 11 (FL1: 0.25, FL2: 0.24 and week 8 (LW1: 0.19, LW2: 0.18, respectively. Genetic eigenfunctions revealed that altering the shape of the feed intake curve by selection is difficult.

  18. Lattice Boltzmann Model for Numerical Relativity

    CERN Document Server

    Ilseven, E

    2015-01-01

    In the Bona-Masso formulation, Einstein equations are written as a set of flux conservative first order hyperbolic equations that resemble fluid dynamics equations. Based on this formulation, we construct a lattice Boltzmann model for Numerical Relativity. Our model is validated with well-established tests, showing good agreement with analytical solutions. Furthermore, we show that by increasing the relaxation time, we gain stability at the cost of losing accuracy, and by decreasing the lattice spacings while keeping a constant numerical diffusivity, the accuracy and stability of our simulations improves. Finally, in order to show the potential of our approach a linear scaling law for parallelisation with respect to number of CPU cores is demonstrated. Our model represents the first step in using lattice kinetic theory to solve gravitational problems.

  19. Development and Validation of a Daily Pain Catastrophizing Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darnall, Beth D; Sturgeon, John A; Cook, Karon F; Taub, Chloe J; Roy, Anuradha; Burns, John W; Sullivan, Michael; Mackey, Sean C

    2017-09-01

    To date, there is no validated measure for pain catastrophizing at the daily level. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) is widely used to measure trait pain catastrophizing. We sought to develop and validate a brief, daily version of the PCS for use in daily diary studies to facilitate research on mechanisms of catastrophizing treatment, individual differences in self-regulation, and to reveal the nuanced relationships between catastrophizing, correlates, and pain outcomes. After adapting the PCS for daily use, we evaluated the resulting 14 items using 3 rounds of cognitive interviews with 30 adults with chronic pain. We refined and tested the final daily PCS in 3 independent, prospective, cross-sectional, observational validation studies conducted in a combined total of 519 adults with chronic pain who completed online measures daily for 14 consecutive days. For study 1 (N = 131), exploratory factor analysis revealed adequate fit and-unexpectedly-unidimensionality for item responses to the daily PCS. Study 2 (N = 177) correlations indicated adequate association with related constructs (anger, anxiety, pain intensity, depression). Similarly, results for study 3 (N = 211) revealed expected correlations for daily PCS and measures of daily constructs including physical activity, sleep, energy level, and positive affect. Results from complex/multilevel confirmatory factor analysis confirmed good fit to a unidimensional model. Scores on the daily PCS were statistically comparable with and more parsimonious than the full 14-item version. Next steps include evaluation of score validity in populations with medical diagnoses, greater demographic diversity, and in patients with acute pain. This article describes the development and validation of a daily PCS. This daily measure may facilitate research that aims to characterize pain mechanisms, individual differences in self-regulation, adaptation, and nuanced relationships between catastrophizing, correlates, and pain

  20. Efficacy of once-daily indacaterol 75 μg relative to alternative bronchodilators in COPD: A study level and a patient level network meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background The objective of this study was to evaluate the comparative efficacy of indacaterol 75 μg once daily (OD), tiotropium 18 μg OD, salmeterol 50 μg twice daily (BID), formoterol 12 μg BID, and placebo for the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) based on individual patient data (IPD) from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) from the indacaterol trial program and aggregate data (AD) identified from a systematic review of RCTs. Methods 22 RCTs were included in the AD analysis that evaluated: indacaterol 75 μg (n = 2 studies), indacaterol 150 μg n = 5 (i.e. salmeterol 50 μg) (n = 5), indacaterol 300 μg (n = 2), tiotropium 18 μg (n = 10), salmeterol 50 μg (n = 7), and formoterol 12 μg (n = 4). All of the studies except for one head-to-head comparison (tiotropium vs. salmeterol) were placebo controlled. Outcomes of interest were trough forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) total score at week 12. The AD from all trials was analysed simultaneously using a Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA) and relative treatment effects between all regimens were obtained. In a separate analysis, the IPD available from the 6 indacaterol RCTs was analysed in a NMA. Treatment-by-covariate interactions were included in both analyses to improve similarity of the trials. Results All interventions compared were more efficacious than placebo regarding FEV1 at 12 weeks. Indacaterol 75 μg is expected to result in a comparable FEV1 at 12 weeks to tiotropium and salmeterol based on both IPD and AD analyses. In comparison to formoterol, the IPD and AD results indicate indacaterol 75 μg is more efficacious (IPD = 0.07 L difference; 95%Credible Interval (CrI) 0.02 to 0.11; AD = 0.05 L difference; 95%CrI 0.01; 0.09). In terms of SGRQ total score at 12 weeks, indacaterol 75 μg and formoterol were more efficacious than placebo

  1. Efficacy of once-daily indacaterol 75 μg relative to alternative bronchodilators in COPD: a study level and a patient level network meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cope, Shannon; Zhang, Jie; Williams, James; Jansen, Jeroen P

    2012-06-25

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the comparative efficacy of indacaterol 75 μg once daily (OD), tiotropium 18 μg OD, salmeterol 50 μg twice daily (BID), formoterol 12 μg BID, and placebo for the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) based on individual patient data (IPD) from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) from the indacaterol trial program and aggregate data (AD) identified from a systematic review of RCTs. 22 RCTs were included in the AD analysis that evaluated: indacaterol 75 μg (n = 2 studies), indacaterol 150 μg n = 5 (i.e. salmeterol 50 μg) (n = 5), indacaterol 300 μg (n = 2), tiotropium 18 μg (n = 10), salmeterol 50 μg (n = 7), and formoterol 12 μg (n = 4). All of the studies except for one head-to-head comparison (tiotropium vs. salmeterol) were placebo controlled. Outcomes of interest were trough forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) total score at week 12. The AD from all trials was analysed simultaneously using a Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA) and relative treatment effects between all regimens were obtained. In a separate analysis, the IPD available from the 6 indacaterol RCTs was analysed in a NMA. Treatment-by-covariate interactions were included in both analyses to improve similarity of the trials. All interventions compared were more efficacious than placebo regarding FEV1 at 12 weeks. Indacaterol 75 μg is expected to result in a comparable FEV1 at 12 weeks to tiotropium and salmeterol based on both IPD and AD analyses. In comparison to formoterol, the IPD and AD results indicate indacaterol 75 μg is more efficacious (IPD = 0.07 L difference; 95%Credible Interval (CrI) 0.02 to 0.11; AD = 0.05 L difference; 95%CrI 0.01; 0.09). In terms of SGRQ total score at 12 weeks, indacaterol 75 μg and formoterol were more efficacious than placebo, whereas for tiotropium and salmeterol the credible intervals included zero for the AD results only

  2. Efficacy of once-daily indacaterol 75 μg relative to alternative bronchodilators in COPD: A study level and a patient level network meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cope Shannon

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The objective of this study was to evaluate the comparative efficacy of indacaterol 75 μg once daily (OD, tiotropium 18 μg OD, salmeterol 50 μg twice daily (BID, formoterol 12 μg BID, and placebo for the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD based on individual patient data (IPD from randomized controlled trials (RCTs from the indacaterol trial program and aggregate data (AD identified from a systematic review of RCTs. Methods 22 RCTs were included in the AD analysis that evaluated: indacaterol 75 μg (n = 2 studies, indacaterol 150 μg n = 5 (i.e. salmeterol 50 μg (n = 5, indacaterol 300 μg (n = 2, tiotropium 18 μg (n = 10, salmeterol 50 μg (n = 7, and formoterol 12 μg (n = 4. All of the studies except for one head-to-head comparison (tiotropium vs. salmeterol were placebo controlled. Outcomes of interest were trough forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1 and St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ total score at week 12. The AD from all trials was analysed simultaneously using a Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA and relative treatment effects between all regimens were obtained. In a separate analysis, the IPD available from the 6 indacaterol RCTs was analysed in a NMA. Treatment-by-covariate interactions were included in both analyses to improve similarity of the trials. Results All interventions compared were more efficacious than placebo regarding FEV1 at 12 weeks. Indacaterol 75 μg is expected to result in a comparable FEV1 at 12 weeks to tiotropium and salmeterol based on both IPD and AD analyses. In comparison to formoterol, the IPD and AD results indicate indacaterol 75 μg is more efficacious (IPD = 0.07 L difference; 95%Credible Interval (CrI 0.02 to 0.11; AD = 0.05 L difference; 95%CrI 0.01; 0.09. In terms of SGRQ total score at 12 weeks, indacaterol 75 μg and formoterol were more efficacious than

  3. Generative models: Human embryonic stem cells and multiple modeling relations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagan, Melinda Bonnie

    2016-04-01

    Model organisms are at once scientific models and concrete living things. It is widely assumed by philosophers of science that (1) model organisms function much like other kinds of models, and (2) that insofar as their scientific role is distinctive, it is in virtue of representing a wide range of biological species and providing a basis for generalizations about those targets. This paper uses the case of human embryonic stem cells (hESC) to challenge both assumptions. I first argue that hESC can be considered model organisms, analogous to classic examples such as Escherichia coli and Drosophila melanogaster. I then discuss four contrasts between the epistemic role of hESC in practice, and the assumptions about model organisms noted above. These contrasts motivate an alternative view of model organisms as a network of systems related constructively and developmentally to one another. I conclude by relating this result to other accounts of model organisms in recent philosophy of science. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Development of a daily mortality probability prediction model from Intensive Care Unit patients using a discrete-time event history analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ying Che; Chang, Kuang Yi; Lin, Shih Pin; Chen, Kung; Chan, Kwok Hon; Chang, Polun

    2013-08-01

    As studies have pointed out, severity scores are imperfect at predicting individual clinical chance of survival. The clinical condition and pathophysiological status of these patients in the Intensive Care Unit might differ from or be more complicated than most predictive models account for. In addition, as the pathophysiological status changes over time, the likelihood of survival day by day will vary. Actually, it would decrease over time and a single prediction value cannot address this truth. Clearly, alternative models and refinements are warranted. In this study, we used discrete-time-event models with the changes of clinical variables, including blood cell counts, to predict daily probability of mortality in individual patients from day 3 to day 28 post Intensive Care Unit admission. Both models we built exhibited good discrimination in the training (overall area under ROC curve: 0.80 and 0.79, respectively) and validation cohorts (overall area under ROC curve: 0.78 and 0.76, respectively) to predict daily ICU mortality. The paper describes the methodology, the development process and the content of the models, and discusses the possibility of them to serve as the foundation of a new bedside advisory or alarm system.

  5. The dynamics of daily events and well-being across cultures: when less is more.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oishi, Shigehiro; Diener, Ed; Choi, Dong-Won; Kim-Prieto, Chu; Choi, Incheol

    2007-10-01

    The authors examined cultural and individual differences in the relation between daily events and daily satisfaction. In a preliminary study, they established cross-cultural equivalence of 50 daily events. In the main study, participants in the United States, Korea, and Japan completed daily surveys on the 50 events and daily satisfaction for 21 days. The multilevel random coefficient model analyses showed that (a) the within-person association between positive events and daily satisfaction was significantly stronger among Asian American, Korean, and Japanese participants than among European American participants and (b) the within-person association between positive events and daily satisfaction was significantly weaker among individuals high in global life satisfaction than among those low in global life satisfaction. The findings demonstrate a weaker effect of positive events on daily well-being among individuals and cultures high in global well-being. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. A New Hybrid Spatio-temporal Model for Estimating Daily Multi-year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloog, Itai; Chudnovsky, Alexandra A.; Just, Allan C.; Nordio, Francesco; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Schwartz, Joel

    2014-01-01

    The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter PM(sub 2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data.We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM(sub 2.5) at a 1X 1 km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1 X 1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM(sub 2.5) measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R(sup 2) = 0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R(sup 2) = 0.87, R(sup)2 = 0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions

  7. Daily Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These daily weather records were compiled from a subset of stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset. A weather record is...

  8. Lattice Boltzmann model for numerical relativity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilseven, E; Mendoza, M

    2016-02-01

    In the Z4 formulation, Einstein equations are written as a set of flux conservative first-order hyperbolic equations that resemble fluid dynamics equations. Based on this formulation, we construct a lattice Boltzmann model for numerical relativity and validate it with well-established tests, also known as "apples with apples." Furthermore, we find that by increasing the relaxation time, we gain stability at the cost of losing accuracy, and by decreasing the lattice spacings while keeping a constant numerical diffusivity, the accuracy and stability of our simulations improve. Finally, in order to show the potential of our approach, a linear scaling law for parallelization with respect to number of CPU cores is demonstrated. Our model represents the first step in using lattice kinetic theory to solve gravitational problems.

  9. Improving on daily measures of price discovery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dias, Gustavo Fruet; Fernandes, Marcelo; Scherrer, Cristina

    We formulate a continuous-time price discovery model in which the price discovery measure varies (stochastically) at daily frequency. We estimate daily measures of price discovery using a kernel-based OLS estimator instead of running separate daily VECM regressions as standard in the literature. ...

  10. Modelling of the monthly and daily behaviour of the runoff of the Xallas river using Box-Jenkins and neural networks methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellano-Méndez, María.; González-Manteiga, Wenceslao; Febrero-Bande, Manuel; Manuel Prada-Sánchez, José; Lozano-Calderón, Román

    2004-08-01

    This paper presents a study of the hydrological behaviour of the Xallas river basin in the northwest of Spain, based on modelling the performance of the runoff produced by the river at different temporal scales. For monthly mean runoff as well as mean rainfall forecasting, Box-Jenkins models have been used. For short-term daily flow predictions, two statistical techniques were tested and compared: the classic statistical Box-Jenkins models and artificial neural networks (ANNs). The performance of the ANN was an improvement on the Box-Jenkins results. The neural networks capability of modelling a complex rainfall-runoff relationship has been observed. Although the neural network's performance was not satisfactory for detecting some peak flows, the results were most promising.

  11. Longitudinal Development of Manual Motor Ability in Autism Spectrum Disorder from Childhood to Mid-Adulthood Relates to Adaptive Daily Living Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travers, Brittany G.; Bigler, Erin D.; Duffield, Tyler C.; Prigge, Molly D. B.; Froehlich, Alyson L.; Lange, Nicholas; Alexander, Andrew L.; Lainhart, Janet E.

    2017-01-01

    Many individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) exhibit motor difficulties, but it is unknown whether manual motor skills improve, plateau, or decline in ASD in the transition from childhood into adulthood. Atypical development of manual motor skills could impact the ability to learn and perform daily activities across the life span. This…

  12. The daily risk of bacteremia during hospitalization and associated 30-day mortality evaluated in relation to the traditional classification of bacteremia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Stig Lønberg; Lassen, Annmarie Touborg; Kolmos, Hans Jørn

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We investigated the overall and daily incidence of bacteremia among hospitalized patients and evaluated the traditional classification of bacteremia (community-onset vs nosocomial based on a 48-hour time window) by means of the daily incidence and associated 30-day mortality. METHODS......: In a multicenter hospital-based cohort study, we included all patients aged 15 years or older admitted to hospitals in Funen County, Denmark, during 2000-2008, and identified all first bacteremias per admission. We calculated the overall incidence of bacteremia per 1,000 admissions and 10,000 bed-days, as well...... as the daily incidence of bacteremia per 10,000 bed-days and associated 30-day mortality. RESULTS: We included 724,339 admissions and 10,281 bacteremias for an overall incidence of 14.2 per 1,000 admissions and 23.6 per 10,000 bed-days. The daily incidence was highest on the first 2 days of admission followed...

  13. Fast-food and full-service restaurant consumption in relation to daily energy and nutrient intakes among US adult cancer survivors, 2003-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Ruopeng; Liu, Junyi

    2013-01-01

    Healthy diet is an essential component in cancer survivorship care planning. Cancer survivors should be particularly prudent regarding their daily food choices, with an aim of ensuring safe consumption, reducing risk of recurrence or other comorbidity, and improving quality of life. We aimed to examine the impacts of fast-food and full-service restaurant consumption on daily energy and nutrient intakes among US adult cancer survivors. Nationally representative data of 1308 adult cancer survivors came from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003-2012 waves. First-difference estimator was adopted to address confounding bias from time-invariant unobservables like personal food/beverage preferences by using within-individual variations in diet and restaurant consumption status between two non-consecutive 24-hour dietary recalls. Fast-food and full-service restaurant consumption, respectively, was associated with an increase in daily total energy intake by 125.97 and 152.26 kcal and sodium intake by 312.47 and 373.75 mg. Fast-food consumption was significantly associated with a decrease in daily vitamin A intake by 119.88 µg and vitamin K intake by 30.48 µg, whereas full-service restaurant consumption was associated with an increase in daily fat intake by 8.99 g and omega-6 fatty acid intake by 3.85 g, and a decrease in vitamin D intake by 0.93 µg. Compared with fast-food and full-service restaurant consumption at home, consumption away from home led to further reduced diet quality. Individualized nutrition counseling and food assistance programs should address cancer survivors' overall dining-out behavior rather than fast-food consumption alone. © The Author(s) 2015.

  14. A spatio-temporal statistical model of maximum daily river temperatures to inform the management of Scotland's Atlantic salmon rivers under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Faye L; Fryer, Robert J; Hannah, David M; Millar, Colin P; Malcolm, Iain A

    2017-09-14

    The thermal suitability of riverine habitats for cold water adapted species may be reduced under climate change. Riparian tree planting is a practical climate change mitigation measure, but it is often unclear where to focus effort for maximum benefit. Recent developments in data collection, monitoring and statistical methods have facilitated the development of increasingly sophisticated river temperature models capable of predicting spatial variability at large scales appropriate to management. In parallel, improvements in temporal river temperature models have increased the accuracy of temperature predictions at individual sites. This study developed a novel large scale spatio-temporal model of maximum daily river temperature (Twmax) for Scotland that predicts variability in both river temperature and climate sensitivity. Twmax was modelled as a linear function of maximum daily air temperature (Tamax), with the slope and intercept allowed to vary as a smooth function of day of the year (DoY) and further modified by landscape covariates including elevation, channel orientation and riparian woodland. Spatial correlation in Twmax was modelled at two scales; (1) river network (2) regional. Temporal correlation was addressed through an autoregressive (AR1) error structure for observations within sites. Additional site level variability was modelled with random effects. The resulting model was used to map (1) spatial variability in predicted Twmax under current (but extreme) climate conditions (2) the sensitivity of rivers to climate variability and (3) the effects of riparian tree planting. These visualisations provide innovative tools for informing fisheries and land-use management under current and future climate. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Simulation of daily discharges for the upper Durance catchment (French Alps) using subgrid parameterization for topography and a forest canopy climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strasser, Ulrich; Etchevers, Pierre

    2005-08-01

    This study describes the application of the coupled SAFRAN (meteorological variables), ISBA (soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer) and CROCUS (snow cover evolution) models to simulate daily discharges for the upper Durance catchment (French Alps) from 1981 to 1994. The results are validated by comparison with measurements at three gauging stations located in the watershed. Previous investigations have shown a remarkable overestimation of the spring flood peak generated by the modelled snowmelt. It could be significantly improved by increasing the model resolution from 8 km to 1 km, thus more precisely considering the elevation-dependent snowmelt process. However, it is also possible to use subgrid parameterizations at the coarse grid resolution to improve simulations. This paper investigates the influence of a subgrid parameterization for topography, a subgrid parameterization for the snow cover in a forest canopy and a combination of the two on the simulated spring flood peak. Results show a significant improvement in the simulations by both subgrid parameterizations, in particular by their combination: the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of the daily discharges is improved from 0.73 (original experiment) to 0.77 (subgrid topography), to 0.75 (forest) and to 0.78 (combination of subgrid topography and forest).

  16. Generalized Models for the Classification of Abnormal Movements in Daily Life and its Applicability to Epilepsy Convulsion Recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villar, José R; Vergara, Paula; Menéndez, Manuel; de la Cal, Enrique; González, Víctor M; Sedano, Javier

    2016-09-01

    The identification and the modeling of epilepsy convulsions during everyday life using wearable devices would enhance patient anamnesis and monitoring. The psychology of the epilepsy patient penalizes the use of user-driven modeling, which means that the probability of identifying convulsions is driven through generalized models. Focusing on clonic convulsions, this pre-clinical study proposes a method for generating a type of model that can evaluate the generalization capabilities. A realistic experimentation with healthy participants is performed, each with a single 3D accelerometer placed on the most affected wrist. Unlike similar studies reported in the literature, this proposal makes use of [Formula: see text] cross-validation scheme, in order to evaluate the generalization capabilities of the models. Event-based error measurements are proposed instead of classification-error measurements, to evaluate the generalization capabilities of the model, and Fuzzy Systems are proposed as the generalization modeling technique. Using this method, the experimentation compares the most common solutions in the literature, such as Support Vector Machines, [Formula: see text]-Nearest Neighbors, Decision Trees and Fuzzy Systems. The event-based error measurement system records the results, penalizing those models that raise false alarms. The results showed the good generalization capabilities of Fuzzy Systems.

  17. Development of nonlinear empirical models to forecast daily PM2.5 and ozone levels in three large Chinese cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Baolei; Cobourn, W. Geoffrey; Bai, Yuqi

    2016-12-01

    Empirical regression models for next-day forecasting of PM2.5 and O3 air pollution concentrations have been developed and evaluated for three large Chinese cities, Beijing, Nanjing and Guangzhou. The forecast models are empirical nonlinear regression models designed for use in an automated data retrieval and forecasting platform. The PM2.5 model includes an upwind air quality variable, PM24, to account for regional transport of PM2.5, and a persistence variable (previous day PM2.5 concentration). The models were evaluated in the hindcast mode with a two-year air quality and meteorological data set using a leave-one-month-out cross validation method, and in the forecast mode with a one-year air quality and forecasted weather dataset that included forecasted air trajectories. The PM2.5 models performed well in the hindcast mode, with coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.54, 0.65 and 0.64, and normalized mean error (NME) values of 0.40, 0.26 and 0.23 respectively, for the three cities. The O3 models also performed well in the hindcast mode, with R2 values of 0.75, 0.55 and 0.73, and NME values of 0.29, 0.26 and 0.24 in the three cities. The O3 models performed better in summertime than in winter in Beijing and Guangzhou, and captured the O3 variations well all the year round in Nanjing. The overall forecast performance of the PM2.5 and O3 models during the test year varied from fair to good, depending on location. The forecasts were somewhat degraded compared with hindcasts from the same year, depending on the accuracy of the forecasted meteorological input data. For the O3 models, the model forecast accuracy was strongly dependent on the maximum temperature forecasts. For the critical forecasts, involving air quality standard exceedences, the PM2.5 model forecasts were fair to good, and the O3 model forecasts were poor to fair.

  18. Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951–2005 using a regional climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Halder

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Daily moderate rainfall events, that constitute a major portion of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over central India, have decreased significantly during the period 1951 till 2005. Mean and extreme near surface daily temperature during the monsoon season have also increased by a maximum of 1–1.5 °C. Using simulations made with a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4 with prescribed vegetation cover of 1950 and 2005, it is demonstrated that part of the above observed changes in moderate rainfall events and temperature have been caused by land-use land-cover change (LULCC which is mostly anthropogenic. Model simulations show that the increase in seasonal mean and extreme temperature over central India coincides with the region of decreased (increased forest (crop cover. The results also show that land-use land-cover alone causes warming in the extremes of daily mean and maximum temperatures by maximum of 1–1.2 °C, that is comparable with the observed increasing trend in the extremes. Decrease (increase in forest (crop cover reduces the evapotranspiration over land and large-scale convective instability, apart from decreasing the moisture convergence. These factors act together not only in reducing the moderate rainfall events over central India but also the amount of rainfall in that category, significantly. This is the most interesting result of this study. Additionally, the model simulations are repeated by removing the warming trend in sea surface temperatures. As a result, there is enhanced warming at the surface and decrease in moderate rainfall events over central India. Results from the additional experiments corroborate our initial findings and confirm the contribution of land-use land-cover change on increase in daily mean and extreme temperature and decrease in moderate rainfall events. This study not only demonstrates the important implications of LULCC over India, but also shows the necessity for inclusion of projected

  19. A simple daily soil-water balance model for estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater recharge in temperate humid areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dripps, W.R.; Bradbury, K.R.

    2007-01-01

    Quantifying the spatial and temporal distribution of natural groundwater recharge is usually a prerequisite for effective groundwater modeling and management. As flow models become increasingly utilized for management decisions, there is an increased need for simple, practical methods to delineate recharge zones and quantify recharge rates. Existing models for estimating recharge distributions are data intensive, require extensive parameterization, and take a significant investment of time in order to establish. The Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey (WGNHS) has developed a simple daily soil-water balance (SWB) model that uses readily available soil, land cover, topographic, and climatic data in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) to estimate the temporal and spatial distribution of groundwater recharge at the watershed scale for temperate humid areas. To demonstrate the methodology and the applicability and performance of the model, two case studies are presented: one for the forested Trout Lake watershed of north central Wisconsin, USA and the other for the urban-agricultural Pheasant Branch Creek watershed of south central Wisconsin, USA. Overall, the SWB model performs well and presents modelers and planners with a practical tool for providing recharge estimates for modeling and water resource planning purposes in humid areas. ?? Springer-Verlag 2007.

  20. Pertanggungjawaban Sosial Universitas: Implementasi Model Cycle Relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lina Sinatra Wijaya

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The competition among Higher Education is getting tougher. They need to do their best in order to maintain their existence and getting more students coming to their institutions. One way to achieve that goal is through carrying out Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR programs or University Social Responsibility (USR for university. This study tries to investigate the implementation of ‘Cycle Relations’ model in CSR to increase the intake of Higher Education. This study involved seven Higher Educations and nineteen High schools in Central Java. In collecting the data, it used a depth-interview method with all the related parties in this study. The result showed that most of the Higher Education institutions have implemented Corporate Social Responsibility program in various ways. Their target audience included the high schools, society, and parents.  From the model implementation, it showed that the CSR program did have an impact towards the intake in their institution. However, one important thing to consider is that the role of the teachers at schools was quite significant in influencing the students to choose which university to go.  This reflects that although the Higher Education institution have planned and carried out CSR programs according to what the target audiences’ need, it does not guarantee that it will have direct impact towards their intake because the influence of teacher is quite significant. It may have a bigger impact in long term as the target audiences know the quality and contribution of the Higher Education institutions.

  1. Pertanggungjawaban Sosial Universitas: Implementasi Model Cycle Relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lina Sinatra Wijaya

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The competition among Higher Education is getting tougher. They need to do their best in order to maintain their existence and getting more students coming to their institutions. One way to achieve that goal is through carrying out Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR programs or University Social Responsibility (USR for university. This study tries to investigate the implementation of ‘Cycle Relations’ model in CSR to increase the intake of Higher Education. This study involved seven Higher Educations and nineteen High schools in Central Java. In collecting the data, it used a depth-interview method with all the related parties in this study. The result showed that most of the Higher Education institutions have implemented Corporate Social Responsibility program in various ways. Their target audience included the high schools, society, and parents. From the model implementation, it showed that the CSR program did have an impact towards the intake in their institution. However, one important thing to consider is that the role of the teachers at schools was quite significant in influencing the students to choose which university to go. This reflects that although the Higher Education institution have planned and carried out CSR programs according to what the target audiences’ need, it does not guarantee that it will have direct impact towards their intake because the influence of teacher is quite significant. It may have a bigger impact in long term as the target audiences know the quality and contribution of the Higher Education institutions.

  2. Allosteric Learning Model in English Lesson: Teachers' Views, the Instructions of Curriculum and Course Book, a Sample of Daily Lesson Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkant, Hasan Güner; Baysal, Seda

    2017-01-01

    The changes which occur during the learning process have been explained by many teaching-learning models and theories. One of these models is allosteric learning model (ALM) which was developed by André Giordan in 1989. This model was derived from a biological metaphor related to proteins. The interaction between individual and environment in a…

  3. A daily salt balance model for stream salinity generation processes following partial clearing from forest to pasture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Bari

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We developed a coupled salt and water balance model to represent the stream salinity generation process following land use changes. The conceptual model consists of three main components with five stores: (i Dry, Wet and Subsurface Stores, (ii a saturated Groundwater Store and (iii a transient Stream zone Store. The Dry and Wet Stores represent the salt and water movement in the unsaturated zone and also the near-stream dynamic saturated areas, responsible for the generation of salt flux associated with surface runoff and interflow. The unsaturated Subsurface Store represents the salt bulge and the salt fluxes. The Groundwater Store comes into play when the groundwater level is at or above the stream invert and quantifies the salt fluxes to the Stream zone Store. In the stream zone module, we consider a 'free mixing' between the salt brought about by surface runoff, interflow and groundwater flow. Salt accumulation on the surface due to evaporation and its flushing by initial winter flow is also incorporated in the Stream zone Store. The salt balance model was calibrated sequentially following successful application of the water balance model. Initial salt stores were estimated from measured salt profile data. We incorporated two lumped parameters to represent the complex chemical processes like diffusion-dilution-dispersion and salt fluxes due to preferential flow. The model has performed very well in simulating stream salinity generation processes observed at Ernies and Lemon experimental catchments in south west of Western Australia. The simulated and observed stream salinity and salt loads compare very well throughout the study period with NSE of 0.7 and 0.4 for Ernies and Lemon catchment respectively. The model slightly over predicted annual stream salt load by 6.2% and 6.8%.

  4. AN ABSTRACT RELATIONAL MODEL AND NATURAL JOIN FUNCTORS

    OpenAIRE

    Kato, Akihiko

    1983-01-01

    A meta-model for database models called an abstract relational model which is obtained by a categorical abstraction of a relational model is proposed. This meta-model represents various database models, e.g. relational, network, hierarchical models as special cases. It is proved that a natural join is the right adjoint of a decomposition in the relational model. On the other hand, in our abstract relational model a natural join is defined as the right adjoint of a decomposition. A sufficient ...

  5. MRO SOW Daily Script

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Forest E.; Khanampornpan, Teerapat; Gladden, Roy E.

    2008-01-01

    The MRO SOW daily script (wherein "MRO" signifies "Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter" and "SOW" signifies "sequence systems engineer of the week") is a computer program that automates portions of the MRO daily SOW procedure, which includes checking file-system sizes and automated sequence processor (ASP) log files. The MRO SOW daily script effects clear reporting of (1) the status of, and requirements imposed on, the file system and (2) the ASP log files.

  6. Pharmacological doses of daily ascorbate protect tumours from radiation damage after a single dose of radiation in an intracranial mouse glioma model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carole eGrasso

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Pharmacological ascorbate is currently used as an anti-cancer treatment, potentially in combination with radiation therapy, by integrative medicine practitioners. In the acidic, metal-rich tumour environment, ascorbate acts as a pro-oxidant, with a mode of action similar to that of ionising radiation; both treatments kill cells predominantly by free radical-mediated DNA damage. The brain tumour, glioblastoma multiforme (GBM, is very resistant to radiation; radiosensitising GBM cells will improve survival of GBM patients. Here we demonstrate that a single fraction (6 Gy of radiation combined with a one hour exposure to ascorbate (5 mM sensitised murine glioma GL261cells to radiation in survival and colony-forming assays in vitro. In addition, we report the effect of a single fraction (4.5 Gy of whole brain radiation combined with daily intra-peritoneal injections of ascorbate (1 mg/kg in an intra-cranial GL261 glioma mouse model. Tumour-bearing C57BL/6 mice were divided into four groups: one group received a single dose of 4.5 Gy to the brain eight days after tumour implantation, a second group received daily intra-peritoneal injections of ascorbate (day 8-45 after implantation, a third group received both treatments and a fourth control group received no treatment. While radiation delayed tumour progression, intra-peritoneal ascorbate alone had no effect on tumour progression. Tumour progression was faster in tumour-bearing mice treated with radiation and daily ascorbate than those treated with radiation alone. Histological analysis showed less necrosis in tumours treated with both radiation and ascorbate, consistent with a radio-protective effect of ascorbate in vivo. Discrepancies between our in vitro and in vivo results may be explained by differences in the tumour micro-environment which determines whether ascorbate remains outside the cell, acting as a pro-oxidant or whether it enters the cells and acts as an anti-oxidant.

  7. Pharmacological doses of daily ascorbate protect tumors from radiation damage after a single dose of radiation in an intracranial mouse glioma model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grasso, Carole; Fabre, Marie-Sophie; Collis, Sarah V; Castro, M Leticia; Field, Cameron S; Schleich, Nanette; McConnell, Melanie J; Herst, Patries M

    2014-01-01

    Pharmacological ascorbate is currently used as an anti-cancer treatment, potentially in combination with radiation therapy, by integrative medicine practitioners. In the acidic, metal-rich tumor environment, ascorbate acts as a pro-oxidant, with a mode of action similar to that of ionizing radiation; both treatments kill cells predominantly by free radical-mediated DNA damage. The brain tumor, glioblastoma multiforme (GBM), is very resistant to radiation; radiosensitizing GBM cells will improve survival of GBM patients. Here, we demonstrate that a single fraction (6 Gy) of radiation combined with a 1 h exposure to ascorbate (5 mM) sensitized murine glioma GL261 cells to radiation in survival and colony-forming assays in vitro. In addition, we report the effect of a single fraction (4.5 Gy) of whole brain radiation combined with daily intraperitoneal injections of ascorbate (1 mg/kg) in an intracranial GL261 glioma mouse model. Tumor-bearing C57BL/6 mice were divided into four groups: one group received a single dose of 4.5 Gy to the brain 8 days after tumor implantation, a second group received daily intraperitoneal injections of ascorbate (day 8-45) after implantation, a third group received both treatments and a fourth control group received no treatment. While radiation delayed tumor progression, intraperitoneal ascorbate alone had no effect on tumor progression. Tumor progression was faster in tumor-bearing mice treated with radiation and daily ascorbate than in those treated with radiation alone. Histological analysis showed less necrosis in tumors treated with both radiation and ascorbate, consistent with a radio-protective effect of ascorbate in vivo. Discrepancies between our in vitro and in vivo results may be explained by differences in the tumor microenvironment, which determines whether ascorbate remains outside the cell, acting as a pro-oxidant, or whether it enters the cells and acts as an anti-oxidant.

  8. Daily temperature changes and variability in ENSEMBLES regional models predictions: Evaluation and intercomparison for the Ebro Valley (NE Iberia)

    KAUST Repository

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.

    2014-12-18

    We employ a suite of regional climate models (RCMs) to assess future changes in summer (JJA) maximum temperature (Tmax) over the Ebro basin, the largest hydrological division in the Iberian Peninsula. Under the A1B emission scenario, future changes in both mean values and their corresponding time varying percentiles were examined by comparing the control period (1971-2000) with two future time slices: 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Here, the rationale is to assess how lower/upper tails of temperature distributions will change in the future and whether these changes will be consistent with those of the mean. The model validation results demonstrate significant differences among the models in terms of their capability to representing the statistical characteristics (e.g., mean, skewness and asymmetry) of the observed climate. The results also indicate that the current substantial warming observed in the Ebro basin is expected to continue during the 21st century, with more intense warming occurring at higher altitudes and in areas with greater distance from coastlines. All models suggest that the region will experience significant positive changes in both the cold and warm tails of temperature distributions. However, the results emphasize that future changes in the lower and upper tails of the summer Tmax distribution may not follow the same warming rate as the mean condition. In particular, the projected changes in the warm tail of the summer Tmax are shown to be significantly larger than changes in both mean values and the cold tail, especially at the end of the 21st century. The finding suggests that much of the changes in the summer Tmax percentiles will be driven by a shift in the entire distribution of temperature rather than only changes in the central tendency. Better understanding of the possible implications of future climate systems provides information useful for vulnerability assessments and the development of local adaptation strategies for multi

  9. Subseasonal to multidecadal variability of northeast monsoon daily rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia using a hidden Markov model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Wei Lun; Yusof, Fadhilah; Yusop, Zulkifli

    2017-07-01

    This study involves the modelling of a homogeneous hidden Markov model (HMM) on the northeast rainfall monsoon using 40 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia for the period of 1975 to 2008. A six hidden states HMM was selected based on Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and every hidden state has distinct rainfall characteristics. Three of the states were found to correspond by wet conditions; while the remaining three states were found to correspond to dry conditions. The six hidden states were found to correspond with the associated atmospheric composites. The relationships between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific Ocean are found regarding interannual variability. The wet (dry) states were found to be well correlated with a Niño 3.4 index which was used to characterize the intensity of an ENSO event. This model is able to assess the behaviour of the rainfall characteristics with the large scale atmospheric circulation; the monsoon rainfall is well correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in Peninsular Malaysia.

  10. Subseasonal to multidecadal variability of northeast monsoon daily rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia using a hidden Markov model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Wei Lun; Yusof, Fadhilah; Yusop, Zulkifli

    2016-04-01

    This study involves the modelling of a homogeneous hidden Markov model (HMM) on the northeast rainfall monsoon using 40 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia for the period of 1975 to 2008. A six hidden states HMM was selected based on Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and every hidden state has distinct rainfall characteristics. Three of the states were found to correspond by wet conditions; while the remaining three states were found to correspond to dry conditions. The six hidden states were found to correspond with the associated atmospheric composites. The relationships between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific Ocean are found regarding interannual variability. The wet (dry) states were found to be well correlated with a Niño 3.4 index which was used to characterize the intensity of an ENSO event. This model is able to assess the behaviour of the rainfall characteristics with the large scale atmospheric circulation; the monsoon rainfall is well correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in Peninsular Malaysia.

  11. Characterization of melatonin synthesis in the gastrointestinal tract of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss): distribution, relation with serotonin, daily rhythms and photoperiod regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Pérez, José L; López-Patiño, Marcos A; Álvarez-Otero, Rosa; Gesto, Manuel; Soengas, José L; Míguez, Jesús M

    2016-05-01

    Melatonin is synthesized in peripheral locations of vertebrates, including the gastrointestinal tract (GIT). In teleost, information regarding this topic is scarce. Here we studied the presence and synthesis of melatonin at the rainbow trout GIT. Different sections of trout GIT (from esophagus to hindgut) were dissected out and assayed for contents of melatonin, serotonin (5-HT) and its metabolite, 5-hydroxyindole acetic acid, as well as for aanat1, aanat2 and hiomt mRNA abundance. A trout group was pinealectomized to evaluate changes in plasma and gut melatonin content. Finally, the daily profile of melatonin and 5-HT content, and aanat1, aanat2 and hiomt mRNA abundance were analyzed in gut of trout kept under normal lighting, and then under constant darkness. Melatonin was detected in all GIT regions with higher concentrations in the muscular wall than in the mucosa, a similar trend to that of 5-HT. In contrast, transcripts of melatonin synthesis enzymes were more abundant in the mucosa. Pinealectomy did not affect melatonin levels in midgut and hindgut either at day or at night. Additionally, no daily rhythms could be defined for melatonin content in gut tissues but increases during late light phase and at midnight occurred. However, aanat1, aanat2 and hiomt mRNA abundance showed clear daily rhythms with peaks at night. These rhythms remained with a 3-h phase advanced peak in fish exposed to constant darkness. Our results provide clear evidence for a local synthesis of melatonin in trout GIT that might be influenced by the content of 5-HT in the tissue. The process is affected by environmental light cycle and is likely to be under circadian regulation.

  12. Statistical comparison of models for estimating the monthly average daily diffuse radiation at a subtropical African site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bashahu, M. [University of Burundi, Bujumbura (Burundi). Institute of Applied Pedagogy, Department of Physics and Technology

    2003-07-01

    Nine correlations have been developed in this paper to estimate the monthly average diffuse radiation for Dakar, Senegal. A 16-year period data on the global (H) and diffuse (H{sub d}) radiation, together with data on the bright sunshine hours (N), the fraction of the sky's (Ne/8), the water vapour pressure in the air (e) and the ambient temperature (T) have been used for that purpose. A model inter-comparison based on the MBE, RMSE and t statistical tests has shown that estimates in any of the obtained correlations are not significantly different from their measured counterparts, thus all the nine models are recommended for the aforesaid location. Three of them should be particularly selected for their simplicity, universal applicability and high accuracy. Those are simple linear correlations between K{sub d} and N/N{sub d}, Ne/8 or K{sub t}. Even presenting adequate performance, the remaining correlations are either simple but less accurate, or multiple or nonlinear regressions needing one or two input variables. (author)

  13. Handbook of latent variable and related models

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Sik-Yum

    2011-01-01

    This Handbook covers latent variable models, which are a flexible class of models for modeling multivariate data to explore relationships among observed and latent variables.- Covers a wide class of important models- Models and statistical methods described provide tools for analyzing a wide spectrum of complicated data- Includes illustrative examples with real data sets from business, education, medicine, public health and sociology.- Demonstrates the use of a wide variety of statistical, computational, and mathematical techniques.

  14. Daily supplementation of D-ribose shows no therapeutic benefits in the MHC-I transgenic mouse model of inflammatory myositis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William Coley

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Current treatments for idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (collectively called myositis focus on the suppression of an autoimmune inflammatory response within the skeletal muscle. However, it has been observed that there is a poor correlation between the successful suppression of muscle inflammation and an improvement in muscle function. Some evidence in the literature suggests that metabolic abnormalities in the skeletal muscle underlie the weakness that continues despite successful immunosuppression. We have previously shown that decreased expression of a purine nucleotide cycle enzyme, adenosine monophosphate deaminase (AMPD1, leads to muscle weakness in a mouse model of myositis and may provide a mechanistic basis for muscle weakness. One of the downstream metabolites of this pathway, D-ribose, has been reported to alleviate symptoms of myalgia in patients with a congenital loss of AMPD1. Therefore, we hypothesized that supplementing exogenous D-ribose would improve muscle function in the mouse model of myositis. We treated normal and myositis mice with daily doses of D-ribose (4 mg/kg over a 6-week time period and assessed its effects using a battery of behavioral, functional, histological and molecular measures. RESULTS: Treatment with D-ribose was found to have no statistically significant effects on body weight, grip strength, open field behavioral activity, maximal and specific forces of EDL, soleus muscles, or histological features. Histological and gene expression analysis indicated that muscle tissues remained inflamed despite treatment. Gene expression analysis also suggested that low levels of the ribokinase enzyme in the skeletal muscle might prevent skeletal muscle tissue from effectively utilizing D-ribose. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with daily oral doses of D-ribose showed no significant effect on either disease progression or muscle function in the mouse model of myositis.

  15. Evaluation of daily maximum and minimum 2-m temperatures as simulated with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kraehenmann, Stefan; Kothe, Steffen; Ahrens, Bodo [Frankfurt Univ. (Germany). Inst. for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences; Panitz, Hans-Juergen [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany)

    2013-10-15

    The representation of the diurnal 2-m temperature cycle is challenging because of the many processes involved, particularly land-atmosphere interactions. This study examines the ability of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (version 4.8) to capture the statistics of daily maximum and minimum 2-m temperatures (Tmin/Tmax) over Africa. The simulations are carried out at two different horizontal grid-spacings (0.22 and 0.44 ), and are driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses as near-perfect lateral boundary conditions. As evaluation reference, a high-resolution gridded dataset of daily maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmin/Tmax) for Africa (covering the period 2008-2010) is created using the regression-kriging-regression-kriging (RKRK) algorithm. RKRK applies, among other predictors, the remotely sensed predictors land surface temperature and cloud cover to compensate for the missing information about the temperature pattern due to the low station density over Africa. This dataset allows the evaluation of temperature characteristics like the frequencies of Tmin/Tmax, the diurnal temperature range, and the 90{sup th} percentile of Tmax. Although the large-scale patterns of temperature are reproduced well, COSMO-CLM shows significant under- and overestimation of temperature at regional scales. The hemispheric summers are generally too warm and the day-to-day temperature variability is overestimated over northern and southern extra-tropical Africa. The average diurnal temperature range is underestimated by about 2 C across arid areas, yet overestimated by around 2 C over the African tropics. An evaluation based on frequency distributions shows good model performance for simulated Tmin (the simulated frequency distributions capture more than 80% of the observed ones), but less well performance for Tmax (capture below 70%). Further, over wide parts of Africa a too large fraction of daily Tmax values exceeds the observed 90{sup th} percentile of Tmax, particularly across

  16. Proton pump inhibitor treatment of patients with gastroesophageal reflux-related chronic cough: A comparison between two different daily doses of lansoprazole

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Fabio Baldi; Roberta Cappiello; Carlotta Cavoli; Stefania Ghersi; Francesco Torresan; Enrico Roda

    2006-01-01

    AIM: To compare two different daily doses of lansoprazole given for 12 weeks and to assess the role of gastrointestinal (GI) investigations as criteria for selecting patients.METHODS: Out of 45 patients referred for unexplained chronic persistent cough, 36 had at least one of the GI investigations (endoscopy, 24-h esophageal pHmetry and a 4-week trial of proton pump inhibitor (PPI)therapy) positive and were randomly assigned to receive either 30 mg lansoprazole o.d. or 30 mg lansoprazole b.i.d. for 12 weeks. Symptoms were evaluated at baseline (visit 1) after the PPI test (visit 2) and after the 12-week lansoprazole treatment period (visit 3).RESULTS: Thirty-five patients completed the study protocol. Twenty-one patients (60.0%) reported complete relief from their cough with no difference between the two treatment groups (58.8% and 61.1%had no cough in 30 mg lansoprazole and 60 mg lansoprazole groups, respectively). More than 80% of the patients who had complete relief from their cough at the end of the treatment showed a positive response to the PPI test.CONCLUSION: Twelve weeks of lansoprazole treatment even at a standard daily dose, is effective in patients with chronic persistent cough. A positive response to an initial PPI test seems to be the best criterion for selecting patients who respond to therapy.

  17. Daily exposure to summer circadian cycles affects spermatogenesis, but not fertility in an in vivo rabbit model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabés-Alsina, Maria; Planell, Núria; Torres-Mejia, Elen; Taberner, Ester; Maya-Soriano, Maria José; Tusell, Llibertat; Ramon, Josep; Dalmau, Antoni; Piles, Miriam; Lopez-Bejar, Manel

    2015-01-15

    Heat stress (HS) in mammals is a determining factor in the deterioration of spermatogenesis and can cause infertility. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of continuous summer circadian cycles on semen production, sperm cell features, fertility, prolificacy, and fecal cortisol metabolites from rabbits kept under an in vivo HS model. We split randomly 60 New Zealand White rabbits into two temperature-controlled rooms: The control group was maintained at comfort temperature (18 °C-22 °C) and an HS group, where the environmental temperature was programmed to increase from 22 °C to 31 °C and be maintained for 3 hours to this temperature at the central part of the day. Fecal cortisol metabolites were assessed to evaluate the stress conditions. Seminal parameters were analyzed. Although animals exposed to HS showed higher values of fecal cortisol metabolites (P = 0.0003), no differences were detected in fertility or prolificacy. Semen samples from HS males showed a significant decrease (P cycle that allows periods of time to recover as it occurs under natural conditions. Although negative effects have been detected in several sperm parameters, fertility and prolificacy were not affected, suggesting a recovery of the reproductive function when normal conditions are reestablished.

  18. Boundary Relations, Unitary Colligations, and Functional Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Behrndt, Jussi; Hassi, Seppo; de Snoo, Henk

    2009-01-01

    Recently a new notion, the so-called boundary relation, has been introduced involving an analytic object, the so-called Weyl family. Weyl families and boundary relations establish a link between the class of Nevanlinna families and unitary relations acting from one Krein in space, a basic (state) sp

  19. Influence of Time-of-Day on Maximal Exercise Capacity Is Related to Daily Thermal Balance but Not to Induced Neuronal Activity in Rats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, Frederico S. M.; Fóscolo, Daniela R. C.; Poletini, Maristela O.; Coimbra, Cândido C.

    2016-01-01

    In the present study, we investigated whether the daily fluctuations of internal body temperature (Tb) and spontaneous locomotor activity (SLA) interact with the thermal and neuronal adjustments induced by high-intensity aerobic exercise until fatigue. The body temperature and SLA of adult Wistar rats (n = 23) were continuously recorded by telemetry for 48 h. Then, the rats were subjected to a protocol of graded exercise until fatigue or rest on the treadmill during light and dark-phases. Tb, tail skin temperature and ambient temperature during each experimental session were recorded. At the end of the last experimental session, the animals were anaesthetized; the brains were perfused and removed for immunohistochemical analysis of c-fos neuronal activation. The daily rhythms of SLA and Tb were strongly correlated (r = 0.88 and p < 0.001), and this was followed by a daily oscillation in both the ratio and the correlation index between these variables (p < 0.001). Exercise capacity was associated with a lower resting Tb (p < 0.01) and was higher in the light-phase (p < 0.001), resulting in an increased capacity to accumulate heat during exercise (p < 0.01). Independent of time-of-day, high intensity exercise strongly activated the hypothalamic paraventricular nucleus (PVN), the supra-optic nucleus (SON) and the locus coeruleus (LC) (p < 0.001) but not the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN). Taken together, our results points toward a role of the circadian system in a basal activity control of the thermoregulatory system as an important component for the onset of physical activities. In fact, rather than directly limiting the adjustments induced by exercise the present study brings new evidence that the effect of time-of-day on exercise performance occurs at the threshold level for each thermoregulatory system effector activity. This assumption is based on the observed resilience of the central clock to high-intensity exercise and the similarities in exercise

  20. Two-stage model for time-varying effects of discrete longitudinal covariates with applications in analysis of daily process data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hanyu; Cranford, James A; Li, Runze; Buu, Anne

    2015-02-20

    This study proposes a generalized time-varying effect model that can be used to characterize a discrete longitudinal covariate process and its time-varying effect on a later outcome that may be discrete. The proposed method can be applied to examine two important research questions for daily process data: measurement reactivity and predictive validity. We demonstrate these applications using health risk behavior data collected from alcoholic couples through an interactive voice response system. The statistical analysis results show that the effect of measurement reactivity may only be evident in the first week of interactive voice response assessment. Moreover, the level of urge to drink before measurement reactivity takes effect may be more predictive of a later depression outcome. Our simulation study shows that the performance of the proposed method improves with larger sample sizes, more time points, and smaller proportions of zeros in the binary longitudinal covariate.

  1. Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Predicting and Mapping Daily Pan Evaporation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arunkumar, R.; Jothiprakash, V.; Sharma, Kirty

    2017-08-01

    In this study, Artificial Intelligence techniques such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Model Tree (MT) and Genetic Programming (GP) are used to develop daily pan evaporation time-series (TS) prediction and cause-effect (CE) mapping models. Ten years of observed daily meteorological data such as maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours, dew point temperature and pan evaporation are used for developing the models. For each technique, several models are developed by changing the number of inputs and other model parameters. The performance of each model is evaluated using standard statistical measures such as Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error, Normalized Mean Square Error and correlation coefficient (R). The results showed that daily TS-GP (4) model predicted better with a correlation coefficient of 0.959 than other TS models. Among various CE models, CE-ANN (6-10-1) resulted better than MT and GP models with a correlation coefficient of 0.881. Because of the complex non-linear inter-relationship among various meteorological variables, CE mapping models could not achieve the performance of TS models. From this study, it was found that GP performs better for recognizing single pattern (time series modelling), whereas ANN is better for modelling multiple patterns (cause-effect modelling) in the data.

  2. Levofloxacin plus metronidazole administered once daily versus moxifloxacin monotherapy against a mixed infection of Escherichia coli and Bacteroides fragilis in an in vitro pharmacodynamic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermsen, Elizabeth D; Hovde, Laurie B; Sprandel, Kelly A; Rodvold, Keith A; Rotschafer, John C

    2005-02-01

    Moxifloxacin has been suggested as an option for monotherapy of intra-abdominal infections. Recent data support the use of a once-daily metronidazole regimen. The purpose of this study was to investigate the activity of levofloxacin (750 mg every 24 h [q24h]) plus metronidazole (1,500 mg q24h) compared with that of moxifloxacin (400 mg q24h) monotherapy in a mixed-infection model. By using an in vitro pharmacodynamic model in duplicate, Escherichia coli and Bacteroides fragilis were exposed to peak concentrations of 8.5 mg of levofloxacin/liter q24h, 32 mg of metronidazole/liter q24h, and 2 mg for moxifloxacin/liter q24h for 24 h. The activities of levofloxacin, metronidazole, moxifloxacin, and levofloxacin plus metronidazole were evaluated against E. coli, B. fragilis, and E. coli plus B. fragilis. The targeted half-lives of levofloxacin, metronidazole, and moxifloxacin were 8, 8, and 12 h, respectively. Time-kill curves were analyzed for time to 3-log killing, slope, and regrowth. Pre- and postexposure MICs were determined. The preexposure levofloxacin, metronidazole, and moxifloxacin MICs for E. coli and B. fragilis were 0.5 and 1, >64 and 0.5, and 1 and 0.25 mg/liter, respectively. Levofloxacin and moxifloxacin achieved a 3-log killing against E. coli and B. fragilis in all experiments, as did metronidazole against B. fragilis. Metronidazole did not decrease the starting inoculum of E. coli. The area under the concentration-time curve/MIC ratios for E. coli and B. fragilis were 171.7 and 85.9, respectively, for levofloxacin and 26 and 103.9, respectively, for moxifloxacin. Levofloxacin plus metronidazole exhibited the fastest rates of killing. The levofloxacin and moxifloxacin MICs for B. fragilis increased 8- to 16-fold after the organism was exposed to moxifloxacin. No other changes in the postexposure MICs were found. Levofloxacin plus metronidazole administered once daily exhibited activity similar to that of moxifloxacin against the mixed E. coli and B

  3. A comprehensively quantitative method of evaluating the impact of drought on crop yield using daily multi-scale SPEI and crop growth process model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qianfeng; Wu, Jianjun; Li, Xiaohan; Zhou, Hongkui; Yang, Jianhua; Geng, Guangpo; An, Xueli; Liu, Leizhen; Tang, Zhenghong

    2017-04-01

    The quantitative evaluation of the impact of drought on crop yield is one of the most important aspects in agricultural water resource management. To assess the impact of drought on wheat yield, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) crop growth model and daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which is based on daily meteorological data, are adopted in the Huang Huai Hai Plain. The winter wheat crop yields are estimated at 28 stations, after calibrating the cultivar coefficients based on the experimental site data, and SPEI data was taken 11 times across the growth season from 1981 to 2010. The relationship between estimated yield and multi-scale SPEI were analyzed. The optimum time scale SPEI to monitor drought during the crop growth period was determined. The reference yield was determined by averaging the yields from numerous non-drought years. From this data, we propose a comprehensive quantitative method which can be used to predict the impact of drought on wheat yields by combining the daily multi-scale SPEI and crop growth process model. This method was tested in the Huang Huai Hai Plain. The results suggested that estimation of calibrated EPIC was a good predictor of crop yield in the Huang Huai Hai Plain, with lower RMSE (15.4 %) between estimated yield and observed yield at six agrometeorological stations. The soil moisture at planting time was affected by the precipitation and evapotranspiration during the previous 90 days (about 3 months) in the Huang Huai Hai Plain. SPEIG90 was adopted as the optimum time scale SPEI to identify the drought and non-drought years, and identified a drought year in 2000. The water deficit in the year 2000 was significant, and the rate of crop yield reduction did not completely correspond with the volume of water deficit. Our proposed comprehensive method which quantitatively evaluates the impact of drought on crop yield is reliable. The results of this study further our understanding

  4. A comprehensively quantitative method of evaluating the impact of drought on crop yield using daily multi-scale SPEI and crop growth process model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qianfeng; Wu, Jianjun; Li, Xiaohan; Zhou, Hongkui; Yang, Jianhua; Geng, Guangpo; An, Xueli; Liu, Leizhen; Tang, Zhenghong

    2016-11-01

    The quantitative evaluation of the impact of drought on crop yield is one of the most important aspects in agricultural water resource management. To assess the impact of drought on wheat yield, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) crop growth model and daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which is based on daily meteorological data, are adopted in the Huang Huai Hai Plain. The winter wheat crop yields are estimated at 28 stations, after calibrating the cultivar coefficients based on the experimental site data, and SPEI data was taken 11 times across the growth season from 1981 to 2010. The relationship between estimated yield and multi-scale SPEI were analyzed. The optimum time scale SPEI to monitor drought during the crop growth period was determined. The reference yield was determined by averaging the yields from numerous non-drought years. From this data, we propose a comprehensive quantitative method which can be used to predict the impact of drought on wheat yields by combining the daily multi-scale SPEI and crop growth process model. This method was tested in the Huang Huai Hai Plain. The results suggested that estimation of calibrated EPIC was a good predictor of crop yield in the Huang Huai Hai Plain, with lower RMSE (15.4 %) between estimated yield and observed yield at six agrometeorological stations. The soil moisture at planting time was affected by the precipitation and evapotranspiration during the previous 90 days (about 3 months) in the Huang Huai Hai Plain. SPEIG90 was adopted as the optimum time scale SPEI to identify the drought and non-drought years, and identified a drought year in 2000. The water deficit in the year 2000 was significant, and the rate of crop yield reduction did not completely correspond with the volume of water deficit. Our proposed comprehensive method which quantitatively evaluates the impact of drought on crop yield is reliable. The results of this study further our understanding

  5. Mapping Relational Operations onto Hypergraph Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2010-10-01

    ="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>

    The relational model is the most commonly used data model for storing large datasets, perhaps due to the simplicity of the tabular format which had revolutionized database management systems. However, many real world objects are recursive and associative in nature which makes storage in the relational model difficult. The hypergraph model is a generalization of a graph model, where each hypernode can be made up of other nodes or graphs and each hyperedge can be made up of one or more edges. It may address the recursive and associative limitations of relational model

  6. User-Driven Workflow for Modeling, Monitoring, Product Development, and Flood Map Delivery Using Satellites for Daily Coverage Over Texas May-June 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, D. S.; Frye, S. W.; Wells, G. L.; Adler, R. F.; Brakenridge, R.; Bolten, J. D.; Murray, J. J.; Slayback, D. A.; Kirschbaum, D.; Wu, H.; Cappelaere, P. G.; Schumann, G.; Howard, T.; Flamig, Z.; Clark, R. A.; Stough, T.; Chini, M.; Matgen, P.

    2015-12-01

    Intense rainfall during late April and early May 2015 in Texas and Oklahoma led to widespread flooding in several river basins in that region. Texas state agencies were activated for the May-June floods and severe weather event that ensued for six weeks from May 8 until June 19 following Tropical Storm Bill. This poster depicts a case study where modeling flood potential informed decision making authorities for user-driven high resolution satellite acquisitions over the most critical areas and how experimental flood mapping techniques provided the capability for daily on-going monitoring of these events through the use of increased automation. Recent improvements in flood models resulting from higher frequency updates, better spatial resolution, and increased accuracy of now cast and forecast precipitation products coupled with advanced technology to improve situational awareness for decision makers. These advances enabled satellites to be tasked, data products to be developed and distributed, and feedback loops between the emergency authorities, satellite operators, and mapping researchers to deliver a daily stream of relevant products that informed deployment of emergency resources and improved management of the large-scale event across the local, state, and national levels. This collaboration was made possible through inter-agency cooperation on an international scale through the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites Flood Pilot activity that is supported in the USA by NASA, NOAA, and USGS and includes numerous civilian space agency assets from the European Space Agency along with national agencies from Italy, France, Germany, Japan, and others. The poster describes the inter-linking technology infrastructure, the development and delivery of mapping products, and the lessons learned for product improvement in the future.

  7. The influence of synoptic airflow on UK daily precipitation extremes. Part II: regional climate model and E-OBS data validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maraun, Douglas [Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), Duesternbrooker Weg 20, 24105, Kiel (Germany); Osborn, Timothy J. [School of Environmental Sciences, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich (United Kingdom); Rust, Henning W. [Freie Universitaet Berlin, Institut fuer Meteorologie, Berlin (Germany)

    2012-07-15

    We investigate how well the variability of extreme daily precipitation events across the United Kingdom is represented in a set of regional climate models and the E-OBS gridded data set. Instead of simply evaluating the climatologies of extreme precipitation measures, we develop an approach to validate the representation of physical mechanisms controlling extreme precipitation variability. In part I of this study we applied a statistical model to investigate the influence of the synoptic scale atmospheric circulation on extreme precipitation using observational rain gauge data. More specifically, airflow strength, direction and vorticity are used as predictors for the parameters of the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution of local precipitation extremes. Here we employ this statistical model for our validation study. In a first step, the statistical model is calibrated against a gridded precipitation data set provided by the UK Met Office. In a second step, the same statistical model is calibrated against 14 ERA40 driven 25 km resolution RCMs from the ENSEMBLES project and the E-OBS gridded data set. Validation indices describing relevant physical mechanisms are derived from the statistical models for observations and RCMs and are compared using pattern standard deviation, pattern correlation and centered pattern root mean squared error as validation measures. The results for the different RCMs and E-OBS are visualised using Taylor diagrams. We show that the RCMs adequately simulate moderately extreme precipitation and the influence of airflow strength and vorticity on precipitation extremes, but show deficits in representing the influence of airflow direction. Also very rare extremes are misrepresented, but this result is afflicted with a high uncertainty. E-OBS shows considerable biases, in particular in regions of sparse data. The proposed approach might be used to validate other physical relationships in regional as well as global climate models. (orig.)

  8. Edificio Daily Mirror

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Williams, Owen

    1963-07-01

    Full Text Available The building has 18 levels. The Press occupies the 4 basement floors. The ground floor is taken up with the entrance hall, and an indoor carriage way. A snack bar and the telephone operators are situated on the second floor. The production department and the medical services are located on the third storey, whilst the fourth is occupied by the offices and library. The fifth floor is the beginning of the higher section of the building. This floor and up to including the 11th floor are devoted to office space, except for the 10th storey, which contains the office apartments of the directors and the Council Chamber. Equipment related to various services of the building is housed on the 12th storey. Finally, this tall building constitutes a fine landmark in the London skyline. The Daily Mirror building is outstanding for the appropriate nature, the completeness and the quality of its installations, which thus provide the most widely read paper in the world with outstandingly efficient offices.Este edificio consta de 18 plantas. El cuerpo de Prensa se aloja en los cuatro sótanos; los vestíbulos de entrada y una calzada interior para vehículos se hallan en la planta baja; la primera alberga un snack-bar y centralita telefónica; la segunda, el departamento de producción y centro de asistencia médica, y la tercera, las oficinas y biblioteca principales. La cuarta planta señala el comienzo del bloque alto; esta planta, junto con las quinta, sexta, séptima, octava y décima, están dedicadas a oficinas. La novena contiene las oficinas-apartamentos de los directores y salas de Consejo, y la undécima, la maquinaria para las diversas instalaciones del edificio. La elevada torre constituye un grandioso hito de referencia en esta zona de Londres. El «Daily Mirror» se distingue por el acierto, número y perfección de sus instalaciones, que proporcionan, al periódico de mayor actualidad mundial, las más adecuadas y amplias oficinas modernas.

  9. Modeling behavioral considerations related to information security.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Moyano, I. J.; Conrad, S. H.; Andersen, D. F. (Decision and Information Sciences); (SNL); (Univ. at Albany)

    2011-01-01

    The authors present experimental and simulation results of an outcome-based learning model for the identification of threats to security systems. This model integrates judgment, decision-making, and learning theories to provide a unified framework for the behavioral study of upcoming threats.

  10. A Relational Scaffolding Model of Hybrid Communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meissner, Jens O.; Tuckermann, Harald

    Two fundamental trends with important implications for today's management of organizations build the impetus for this paper. The first is the ubiquity of computer-mediated communication (CMC). The second is the revived interest for social relations and social networks at the workplace and its focus on relational processes in organizations.

  11. The social relations model for family data : A multilevel approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snijders, TAB; Kenny, DA

    1999-01-01

    Multilevel models are proposed to study relational or dyadic data from multiple persons in families or other groups. The variable under study is assumed to refer to a dyadic relation between individuals in the groups. The proposed models are elaborations of the Social Relations Model. The different

  12. DailyMed

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — DailyMed provides high quality information about marketed drugs. This information includes FDA labels (package inserts). This Web site provides health information...

  13. Lightship Daily Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observations taken on board lightships along the United States coasts from 1936 - 1983. Generally 4-6 observations daily. Also includes deck logs, which give...

  14. DailyMed Webservices

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The DailyMed RESTful API is a web service for accessing current SPL information. It is implemented using HTTP and can be thought of as a collection of resources,...

  15. Daily Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Several different government offices have published the Daily weather maps over its history. The publication has also gone by different names over time. The U.S....

  16. Dementia - daily care

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000030.htm Dementia - daily care To use the sharing features on ... prevent choking. Tips for Talking With Someone With Dementia Keep distractions and noise down: Turn off the ...

  17. Estimating daily time series of streamflow using hydrological model calibrated based on satellite observations of river water surface width: Toward real world applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wenchao; Ishidaira, Hiroshi; Bastola, Satish; Yu, Jingshan

    2015-05-01

    Lacking observation data for calibration constrains applications of hydrological models to estimate daily time series of streamflow. Recent improvements in remote sensing enable detection of river water-surface width from satellite observations, making possible the tracking of streamflow from space. In this study, a method calibrating hydrological models using river width derived from remote sensing is demonstrated through application to the ungauged Irrawaddy Basin in Myanmar. Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is selected as a tool for automatic calibration and uncertainty analysis. Of 50,000 randomly generated parameter sets, 997 are identified as behavioral, based on comparing model simulation with satellite observations. The uncertainty band of streamflow simulation can span most of 10-year average monthly observed streamflow for moderate and high flow conditions. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency is 95.7% for the simulated streamflow at the 50% quantile. These results indicate that application to the target basin is generally successful. Beyond evaluating the method in a basin lacking streamflow data, difficulties and possible solutions for applications in the real world are addressed to promote future use of the proposed method in more ungauged basins. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Patterns of Daily Duration and Frequency of Breastfeeding among Exclusively Breastfed Infants in Shiraz, Iran, A 6-Month Follow-up Study Using Bayesian Generalized Linear Mixed Models

    OpenAIRE

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Despite numerous studies on the benefits of exclusive breastfeeding during the first half year of life, little information is available on actual breastfeeding practices in terms of daily duration and frequency of suckling. This study proposes to determine daily breastfeeding patterns among exclusively breastfed infants from birth to six months. Subject and Methods: An observational prospective follow-up study of daily feeding practices among exclusively breastfed infants was co...

  19. A model to approximate lake temperature from gridded daily air temperature records and its application in risk assessment for the establishment of fish diseases in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thrush, M A; Peeler, E J

    2013-10-01

    Ambient water temperature is a key factor controlling the distribution and impact of disease in fish populations, and optimum temperature ranges have been characterised for the establishment of a number important aquatic diseases exotic to the UK. This study presents a simple regression method to approximate daily average surface water temperature in lakes of 0.5-15 ha in size across the UK using 5 km(2) gridded daily average air temperatures provided by the UK Meteorological Office. A Geographic information system (GIS) is used to present thematic maps of relative risk scores established for each grid cell based on the mean number of days per year that water temperature satisfied optimal criteria for the establishment of two economically important pathogens of cyprinid fish (koi herpesvirus (KHV) and spring viraemia of carp virus (SVCV)) and the distribution and density of fish populations susceptible to these viruses. High-density susceptible populations broadly overlap the areas where the temperature profiles are optimal for KHV (central and south-east England); however, few fish populations occur in areas where temperature profiles are most likely to result in the establishment of spring viremia of carp (SVC) (namely northern England and Scotland). The highest grid-cell risk scores for KHV and SVC were 7 and 6, respectively, out of a maximum score of 14. The proportion of grid cells containing susceptible populations with risk scores of 5 or more was 37% and 5% for KHV and SVC, respectively. This work demonstrates a risk-based approach to inform surveillance for exotic pathogens in aquatic animal health management, allowing efficient use of resources directed towards higher risk animals and geographic areas for early disease detection. The methodology could be used to examine the change in distribution of high-risk areas for both exotic and endemic fish diseases under different climate change scenarios.

  20. Verifying Interlevel Relations within Organizational Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, C.M.; Sharpanskykh, A.; Treur, J.; Yolum, P.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper the formal theoretical basis used for transformation of a non-executable external behavioral specification for an organizational model into an executable format, required for enabling verification techniques, is explained in detail.

  1. Verifying Interlevel Relations within Organizational Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, C.M.; Sharpanskykh, A.; Treur, J.; Yolum, P.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper the formal theoretical basis used for transformation of a non-executable external behavioral specification for an organizational model into an executable format, required for enabling verification techniques, is explained in detail.

  2. 面向关系模式——一种全新的数据库框架%Relation Oriented Model A New Data Model Frame

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴怀谷; 周明天

    2001-01-01

    In order to organize and transform data relations dynamically according to the daily requirements ,a new data model,Relation Oriented model(RO model)is proposed. RO model is described at the physical,data,relational and external schema. In physical schema,a middleware mechanism is used to realize the distributed processing. In data schema ,data group(DG)is defined as the independent atomic unit of data organizing. In relational schema ,the data relations can be organized and transformed dynamically,even on runtime environment. In external schema ,RO model supports the workflow. The building of RO model will reduce the overhead in repeating developments of database applications to a large extent.

  3. Decision tree modeling with relational views

    CERN Document Server

    Bentayeb, Fadila

    2002-01-01

    Data mining is a useful decision support technique that can be used to discover production rules in warehouses or corporate data. Data mining research has made much effort to apply various mining algorithms efficiently on large databases. However, a serious problem in their practical application is the long processing time of such algorithms. Nowadays, one of the key challenges is to integrate data mining methods within the framework of traditional database systems. Indeed, such implementations can take advantage of the efficiency provided by SQL engines. In this paper, we propose an integrating approach for decision trees within a classical database system. In other words, we try to discover knowledge from relational databases, in the form of production rules, via a procedure embedding SQL queries. The obtained decision tree is defined by successive, related relational views. Each view corresponds to a given population in the underlying decision tree. We selected the classical Induction Decision Tree (ID3) a...

  4. Sub-Daily Runoff Simulations with Parameters Inferred at the Daily Time Scale: Impacts of the temporal distribution of rainfall in parameter inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds Puga, Jose Eduardo; Halldin, Sven; Xu, Chong-Yu; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Flood forecasting at sub-daily time scales are commonly required in regions where sub-daily observational data are not available. This has led to approaches to estimate model parameters at sub-daily time scales from data with a lower time resolution. Reynolds et al. (2015) show that parameters inferred at one time scale (e.g., daily) may be used directly for runoff simulations at other time scales (e.g., 1 h) when the modelling time step is the same and sufficiently small during calibration and simulation periods. Their approach produced parameter distributions at daily and sub-daily time scales that were similar and relatively constant across the time scales. The transfer of parameter values across time scales resulted in small model-performance decrease as opposed to when the parameter sets inferred at their respective time scale were used. This decrease in performance may be attributed to the degree of information lost, in terms of the physical processes occurring at short time scales, when the rainfall-runoff data used during the parameter-inference phase become coarser. It is not yet fully understood how the aggregation (or disaggregation) of the rainfall-runoff data affects parameter inference. In this study we analyse the impacts of the temporal distribution of rainfall for inferring model parameters at a coarse time scale and their effects in model performance when they are used at finer time scales, where data may not be available for calibration. The motivation is to improve runoff predictions and model performance at sub-daily time scales when parameters inferred at the daily scale are used for simulating at these scales. First, we calibrated the HBV-light conceptual hydrological model at the daily scale, but modelled discharge internally in 1-h time steps using 3 disaggregation procedures of the rainfall data. This was done in an attempt to maximise the information content of the input data used for calibration at the daily scale. One disaggregation

  5. Daily and Compulsive Internet Use and Well-Being in Adolescence: A Diathesis-Stress Model Based on Big Five Personality Traits

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Aa, Niels; Overbeek, Geertjan; Engels, Rutger C. M. E.; Scholte, Ron H. J.; Meerkerk, Gert-Jan; Van den Eijnden, Regina J. J. M.

    2009-01-01

    This study examined the associations between adolescents' daily Internet use and low well-being (i.e., loneliness, low self-esteem, and depressive moods). We hypothesized that (a) linkages between high levels of daily Internet use and low well-being would be mediated by compulsive Internet use (CIU), and (b) that adolescents with low levels of…

  6. Daily and Compulsive Internet Use and Well-Being in Adolescence: A Diathesis-Stress Model Based on Big Five Personality Traits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aa, N. van der; Overbeek, G.J.; Engels, R.C.M.E.; Scholte, R.H.J.; Meerkerk, G.J.; Eijnden, R.J.J.M. van den

    2009-01-01

    This study examined the associations between adolescents' daily Internet use and low well-being (i.e., loneliness, low self-esteem, and depressive moods). We hypothesized that (a) linkages between high levels of daily Internet use and low well-being would be mediated by compulsive Internet use (CIU)

  7. Chronic daily headaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fayyaz Ahmed

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Chronic Daily Headache is a descriptive term that includes disorders with headaches on more days than not and affects 4% of the general population. The condition has a debilitating effect on individuals and society through direct cost to healthcare and indirectly to the economy in general. To successfully manage chronic daily headache syndromes it is important to exclude secondary causes with comprehensive history and relevant investigations; identify risk factors that predict its development and recognise its sub-types to appropriately manage the condition. Chronic migraine, chronic tension-type headache, new daily persistent headache and medication overuse headache accounts for the vast majority of chronic daily headaches. The scope of this article is to review the primary headache disorders. Secondary headaches are not discussed except medication overuse headache that often accompanies primary headache disorders. The article critically reviews the literature on the current understanding of daily headache disorders focusing in particular on recent developments in the treatment of frequent headaches.

  8. Calibration and parameterization of a semi-distributed hydrological model to support sub-daily ensemble flood forecasting; a watershed in southeast Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Almeida Bressiani, D.; Srinivasan, R.; Mendiondo, E. M.

    2013-12-01

    The use of distributed or semi-distributed models to represent the processes and dynamics of a watershed in the last few years has increased. These models are important tools to predict and forecast the hydrological responses of the watersheds, and they can subside disaster risk management and planning. However they usually have a lot of parameters, of which, due to the spatial and temporal variability of the processes, are not known, specially in developing countries; therefore a robust and sensible calibration is very important. This study conduced a sub-daily calibration and parameterization of the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for a 12,600 km2 watershed in southeast Brazil, and uses ensemble forecasts to evaluate if the model can be used as a tool for flood forecasting. The Piracicaba Watershed, in São Paulo State, is mainly rural, but has about 4 million of population in highly relevant urban areas, and three cities in the list of critical cities of the National Center for Natural Disasters Monitoring and Alerts. For calibration: the watershed was divided in areas with similar hydrological characteristics, for each of these areas one gauge station was chosen for calibration; this procedure was performed to evaluate the effectiveness of calibrating in fewer places, since areas with the same group of groundwater, soil, land use and slope characteristics should have similar parameters; making calibration a less time-consuming task. The sensibility analysis and calibration were performed on the software SWAT-CUP with the optimization algorithm: Sequential Uncertainly Fitting Version 2 (SUFI-2), which uses Latin hypercube sampling scheme in an iterative process. The performance of the models to evaluate the calibration and validation was done with: Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE), determination coefficient (r2), root mean square error (RMSE), and percent bias (PBIAS), with monthly average values of NSE around 0.70, r2 of 0.9, normalized RMSE of 0

  9. Daily Spiritual Experiences and Prosocial Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Einolf, Christopher J.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines how the Daily Spiritual Experiences Scale (DSES) relates to range of prosocial behaviors, using a large, nationally representative U.S. data set. It finds that daily spiritual experiences are a statistically and substantively significant predictor of volunteering, charitable giving, and helping individuals one knows personally.…

  10. Daily Spiritual Experiences and Prosocial Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Einolf, Christopher J.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines how the Daily Spiritual Experiences Scale (DSES) relates to range of prosocial behaviors, using a large, nationally representative U.S. data set. It finds that daily spiritual experiences are a statistically and substantively significant predictor of volunteering, charitable giving, and helping individuals one knows personally.…

  11. Relative Motion Modeling and Autonomous Navigation Accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-15

    Model Expansion; Earth Gravitational Perturbation; Goddard Mission Analysis Tool; GMAT ; Hamiltonian Methods; LEO Orbits; Lunar-solar Perturbations...54  4.1.3  Numerical Verification using GMAT and a Graphical User Interface (GUI) ......... 58  4.2  Non-Earth Gravitational...and short period ... 52  Figure 3. Difference between the Kaula and GMAT with 20x20 gravity field without J22 secular and short period terms

  12. Winter precipitation characteristics in western US related to atmospheric river landfalls: observations and model evaluations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J.; Guan, B.; Waliser, D. E.; Ferraro, R. D.; Case, J. L.; Iguchi, T.; Kemp, E.; Putman, W.; Wang, W.; Wu, D.; Tian, B.

    2017-03-01

    Winter precipitation (PR) characteristics in western United States (WUS) related to atmospheric river (AR) landfalls are examined using the observation-based PRISM data. The observed AR-related precipitation characteristics are in turn used to evaluate model precipitation data from the NASA MERRA2 reanalysis and from seven dynamical downscaling simulations driven by the MERRA2. Multiple metrics including mean bias, Taylor diagram, and two skill scores are used to measure model performance for three climatological sub-regions in WUS, Pacific Northwest (PNW), Pacific Southwest (PSW) and Great Basin (GB). All model data well represent the winter-mean PR with spatial pattern correlations of 0.8 or higher with PRISM for the three sub-regions. Higher spatial resolutions and/or the use of spectral nudging generally yield higher skill scores in simulating the geographical distribution of PR for the entire winter. The PRISM data shows that the AR-related fraction of winter PR and associated daily PR PDFs in each region vary strongly for landfall locations; AR landfalls in the northern WUS coast (NC) affect mostly PNW while those in the southern WUS coast (SC) affect both PSW and GB. NC (SC) landfalls increase the frequency of heavy PR in PNW (PSW and GB) but reduce it in PSW (PNW). All model data reasonably represent these observed variations in the AR-related winter PR fractions and the daily PR PDFs according to AR landfall locations. However, unlike for the entire winter period, no systematic effects of resolution and/or spectral nudging are identified in these AR-related PR characteristics. Dynamical downscaling in this study generally yield positive added values to the MERRA2 PR in the AR-related PR fraction for most sub-regions and landfall locations, most noticeably for PSW by NU-WRF. The downscaling also generate positive added value in p95 for PNW, but negative values for PSW and GB due to overestimation of heavy precipitation events.

  13. Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily), Version 3

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily) dataset integrates daily climate observations from approximately 30 different data sources. Version 3...

  14. HIV/AIDS-related attitudes and oral impacts on daily performances: a cross-sectional study of Sudanese adult dental patients

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nasir, Elwalid F; Marthinussen, Mihaela C; Åstrøm, Anne N

    2013-01-01

    ...) among dental patients. Our objectives were to investigate the associations between HIV-related knowledge and fear of contagion in dental environments and OIDP among dental patients, and to evaluate whether those...

  15. Profissionais do sexo: sentidos produzidos no cotidiano de trabalho e aspectos relacionados ao HIV Sex professionals: HIV-related aspects and generating meanings in daily work

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Gomes Esposito

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Nesta pesquisa qualitativa foi analisado o processo de construção da subjetividade de nove profissionais do sexo entrevistadas, apreendendo o processo de produção de sentidos relacionados à contextualização do HIV em seu cotidiano de trabalho. Destas, quatro eram soropositivas. Foram identificados e analisados sete núcleos de significado (Família como desencadeadora e mantedora da atividade de profissional do sexo; Identidades diversas nos diferentes ambientes freqüentados: cisão trabalho x afetividade; Contradições vividas acerca do trabalho; AIDS como fator limitante dos prazeres em suas vidas e como empecilho para a continuidade do exercício de suas atividades; Fatores associados ao aumento da vulnerabilidade ao HIV; Serviço de Saúde como facilitador do processo de adesão ao tratamento e Entrevista como propiciadora de intervenções. Enquanto nas entrevistadas soronegativas predominaram sentimentos ambivalentes e contraditórios em relação à atividade, nas soropositivas foi observada uma polarização nos desprazeres desta atividade, inviabilizando sua continuidade após processo de adoecimento desencadeado pela AIDS.This qualitative research analyzes the construction process of subjectivity of nine sex professionals who have been interviewed, grasping the process of generating meanings in the context of HIV in their daily work. Amongst these nine women, four were HIV carriers. Seven nodes of signification were identified and analyzed (Family as an element that causes and maintains their activity as sex professionals; Varying identities in different frequented environments: separation of work from affectivity; Contradictions that were experienced concerning work; AIDS as a limiting factor for pleasure in their lives and as an impediment to continue to practice their activities; Factors associated with the increase of vulnerability to HIV; Health Care as a facilitator in the process of adhering to treatment and the

  16. Families of Children with Chronic Illness and the Relational Family Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja Pate

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Families of children with chronic illness experience persistent stress. Facing the diagnosis and learning how to cope with it is a stressful experience not only for the child but also for the parents and for the whole family. The illness, with its unpredictability and treatment, disturbs their daily routine and threatens the whole family system. Parental involvement in the child’s disease management and their emotional support are crucial for effective coping and adaptation to the child’s chronic illness. The aim of this article is to present the importance of the parental role in these families through theoretical findings of the relational family model.

  17. Prevalence of Dental Caries in relation to Body Mass Index, Daily Sugar Intake, and Oral Hygiene Status in 12-Year-Old School Children in Mathura City: A Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Prahlad; Gupta, Nidhi; Singh, Harkanwal Preet

    2014-01-01

    Aim. To correlate the prevalence of dental caries to body mass index, daily sugar intake, and oral hygiene status of 12-year-old school children of Mathura city. Material and Methods. The study design was cross-sectional and included 100 school children aged 12 years (n = 50 boys and n = 50 girls) who were randomly selected from two schools based upon inclusion and exclusion criteria. Body weight/height was recorded and BMI was calculated and plotted on CDC-BMI for age growth charts/curves for boys and girls to obtain percentile ranking. Dental caries was recorded using WHO criteria. Oral hygiene status of the study subjects was assessed using oral hygiene index-simplified. Data regarding the daily sugar intake was recorded using 24-hour recall diet frequency chart. The data obtained was analysed using SPSS version 11.5 for windows. Result. Only 27 subjects were affected by caries. The mean DMFT/dmft was 0.37 ± 0.79 and 0.12 ± 0.60, respectively. Statistical analysis by means of a logistic regression model revealed that only oral hygiene status had a significant effect on caries prevalence (OR = 5.061, P = 0.004), whereas daily sugar intake and body mass index had no significant effect. Conclusion. From the analysis, it was concluded that oral hygiene status had a significant effect on caries prevalence of 12-year-old school children of Mathura city.

  18. Prevalence of Dental Caries in relation to Body Mass Index, Daily Sugar Intake, and Oral Hygiene Status in 12-Year-Old School Children in Mathura City: A Pilot Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prahlad Gupta

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To correlate the prevalence of dental caries to body mass index, daily sugar intake, and oral hygiene status of 12-year-old school children of Mathura city. Material and Methods. The study design was cross-sectional and included 100 school children aged 12 years (n=50 boys and n=50 girls who were randomly selected from two schools based upon inclusion and exclusion criteria. Body weight/height was recorded and BMI was calculated and plotted on CDC-BMI for age growth charts/curves for boys and girls to obtain percentile ranking. Dental caries was recorded using WHO criteria. Oral hygiene status of the study subjects was assessed using oral hygiene index-simplified. Data regarding the daily sugar intake was recorded using 24-hour recall diet frequency chart. The data obtained was analysed using SPSS version 11.5 for windows. Result. Only 27 subjects were affected by caries. The mean DMFT/dmft was 0.37 ± 0.79 and 0.12 ± 0.60, respectively. Statistical analysis by means of a logistic regression model revealed that only oral hygiene status had a significant effect on caries prevalence (OR = 5.061, P=0.004, whereas daily sugar intake and body mass index had no significant effect. Conclusion. From the analysis, it was concluded that oral hygiene status had a significant effect on caries prevalence of 12-year-old school children of Mathura city.

  19. SU-E-J-257: A PCA Model to Predict Adaptive Changes for Head&neck Patients Based On Extraction of Geometric Features From Daily CBCT Datasets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chetvertkov, M [Wayne State University, Detroit, MI (United States); Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, MI (United States); Siddiqui, F; Chetty, I; Kim, J; Kumarasiri, A; Liu, C; Gordon, J [Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, MI (United States)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: Using daily cone beam CTs (CBCTs) to develop principal component analysis (PCA) models of anatomical changes in head and neck (H&N) patients and to assess the possibility of using these prospectively in adaptive radiation therapy (ART). Methods: Planning CT (pCT) images of 4 H&N patients were deformed to model several different systematic changes in patient anatomy during the course of the radiation therapy (RT). A Pinnacle plugin was used to linearly interpolate the systematic change in patient for the 35 fraction RT course and to generate a set of 35 synthetic CBCTs. Each synthetic CBCT represents the systematic change in patient anatomy for each fraction. Deformation vector fields (DVFs) were acquired between the pCT and synthetic CBCTs with random fraction-to-fraction changes were superimposed on the DVFs. A patient-specific PCA model was built using these DVFs containing systematic plus random changes. It was hypothesized that resulting eigenDVFs (EDVFs) with largest eigenvalues represent the major anatomical deformations during the course of treatment. Results: For all 4 patients, the PCA model provided different results depending on the type and size of systematic change in patient’s body. PCA was more successful in capturing the systematic changes early in the treatment course when these were of a larger scale with respect to the random fraction-to-fraction changes in patient’s anatomy. For smaller scale systematic changes, random changes in patient could completely “hide” the systematic change. Conclusion: The leading EDVF from the patientspecific PCA models could tentatively be identified as a major systematic change during treatment if the systematic change is large enough with respect to random fraction-to-fraction changes. Otherwise, leading EDVF could not represent systematic changes reliably. This work is expected to facilitate development of population-based PCA models that can be used to prospectively identify significant

  20. Hierarchical Linear Model Approach to the Determinants of Activities of Daily Living of Chinese Oldest Old at Both Individual and Regional levels

    Inst