Daily global solar radiation modelling using multi-layer perceptron neural networks in semi-arid region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mawloud GUERMOUI

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Accurate estimation of Daily Global Solar Radiation (DGSR has been a major goal for solar energy application. However, solar radiation measurements are not a simple task for several reasons. In the cases where data are not available, it is very common the use of computational models to estimate the missing data, which are based mainly of the search for relationships between weather variables, such as temperature, humidity, sunshine duration, etc. In this respect, the present study focuses on the development of artificial neural network (ANN model for estimation of daily global solar radiation on horizontal surface in Ghardaia city (South Algeria. In this analysis back-propagation algorithm is applied. Daily mean air temperature, relative humidity and sunshine duration was used as climatic inputs parameters, while the daily global solar radiation (DGSR was the only output of the ANN. We have evaluated Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP models to estimate DGSR using three year of measurement (2005-2008. It was found that MLP-model based on sunshine duration and mean air temperature give accurate results in term of Mean Absolute Bias Error, Root Mean Square Error, Relative Square Error and Correlation Coefficient. The obtained values of these indicators are 0.67 MJ/m², 1.28 MJ/m², 6.12%and 98.18%, respectively which shows that MLP is highly qualified for DGSR estimation in semi-arid climates.

Modeling maximum daily temperature using a varying coefficient regression model

Science.gov (United States)

Han Li; Xinwei Deng; Dong-Yum Kim; Eric P. Smith

2014-01-01

Relationships between stream water and air temperatures are often modeled using linear or nonlinear regression methods. Despite a strong relationship between water and air temperatures and a variety of models that are effective for data summarized on a weekly basis, such models did not yield consistently good predictions for summaries such as daily maximum temperature...

Daily Elevations in Dissociative Absorption and Depersonalization in a Nonclinical Sample Are Related to Daily Stress and Psychopathological Symptoms.

Science.gov (United States)

Soffer-Dudek, Nirit

2017-01-01

Dissociative experiences are associated with several psychopathological symptoms and are a hindrance to therapeutic gain. Depersonalization-derealization (DEP-DER) is positively associated with stress and anxiety, while absorption and imaginative involvement (ABS), a tendency for total, immersed attention, is commonly referred to as nonpathological dissociation, although it is positively associated with obsessive-compulsive (OC) symptoms. Previous studies in the field have been mainly cross-sectional. The present study aimed to examine these associations rigorously and attempted to determine directionality between dissociation and distress. The current study employed both variable-centered (cross-sectional) and person-centered (longitudinal, within-subjects) analyses of the associations of DEP-DER and ABS with distress. Undergraduate students (N = 184) completed trait questionnaires on dissociation, stress, anxiety, depression, and OC symptoms, and n = 78 also completed questionnaires assessing the same constructs daily for 14 days. Multiple regression and multilevel modeling analyses were conducted. In the cross-sectional phase, DEP-DER was uniquely positively related to anxiety and OC symptoms, and ABS was uniquely positively related to OC symptoms. In the daily diary phase, increases in DEP-DER were related to increases in anxiety, depression, OC symptoms, and stress, while increases in ABS were related to increases in OC symptoms and stress. In addition, time-lag analysis showed that ABS tended to temporally precede OC. ABS foretold increases in OC symptoms, at least in this nonclinical sample. Future studies on clinical samples should explore whether ABS should be referred to as "nonpathological" and its possible role in the development or maintenance of clinical-level OCD.

Modeling and Predicting the Daily Equatorial Plasma Bubble Activity Using the Tiegcm

Science.gov (United States)

Carter, B. A.; Retterer, J. M.; Yizengaw, E.; Wiens, K. C.; Wing, S.; Groves, K. M.; Caton, R. G.; Bridgwood, C.; Francis, M. J.; Terkildsen, M. B.; Norman, R.; Zhang, K.

2014-12-01

Describing and understanding the daily variability of Equatorial Plasma Bubble (EPB) occurrence has remained a significant challenge over recent decades. In this study we use the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM), which is driven by solar (F10.7) and geomagnetic (Kp) activity indices, to study daily variations of the linear Rayleigh-Taylor (R-T) instability growth rate in relation to the measured scintillation strength at five longitudinally distributed stations. For locations characterized by generally favorable conditions for EPB growth (i.e., within the scintillation season for that location) we find that the TIEGCM is capable of identifying days when EPB development, determined from the calculated R-T growth rate, is suppressed as a result of geomagnetic activity. Both observed and modeled upward plasma drift indicate that the pre-reversal enhancement scales linearly with Kp from several hours prior, from which it is concluded that even small Kp changes cause significant variations in daily EPB growth. This control of Kp variations on EPB growth prompted an investigation into the use of predicted Kp values from the Wing Kp model over a 2-month equinoctial campaign in 2014. It is found that both the 1-hr and 4-hr predicted Kp values can be reliably used as inputs into the TIEGCM to forecast the EPB growth conditions during scintillation season, when daily EPB variability is governed by the suppression of EPBs on days with increased, but not necessarily high, geomagnetic activity.

Simulation of daily rainfall through markov chain modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sadiq, N.

2015-01-01

Being an agricultural country, the inhabitants of dry land in cultivated areas mainly rely on the daily rainfall for watering their fields. A stochastic model based on first order Markov Chain was developed to simulate daily rainfall data for Multan, D. I. Khan, Nawabshah, Chilas and Barkhan for the period 1981-2010. Transitional probability matrices of first order Markov Chain was utilized to generate the daily rainfall occurrence while gamma distribution was used to generate the daily rainfall amount. In order to achieve the parametric values of mentioned cities, method of moments is used to estimate the shape and scale parameters which lead to synthetic sequence generation as per gamma distribution. In this study, unconditional and conditional probabilities of wet and dry days in sum with means and standard deviations are considered as the essential parameters for the simulated stochastic generation of daily rainfalls. It has been found that the computerized synthetic rainfall series concurred pretty well with the actual observed rainfall series. (author)

Preservice Elementary Mathematics Teachers' Level of Relating Mathematical Concepts in Daily Life Contexts

Science.gov (United States)

Akkus, Oylum

2008-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate preservice elementary mathematics teachers' ability of relating mathematical concepts and daily life context. Two research questions were set; what is the preservice elementary mathematics teachers' level of relating mathematical concepts and daily life context regarding to their education year and…

The role of patients' explanatory models and daily-lived experience in hypertension self-management.

Science.gov (United States)

Bokhour, Barbara G; Cohn, Ellen S; Cortés, Dharma E; Solomon, Jeffrey L; Fix, Gemmae M; Elwy, A Rani; Mueller, Nora; Katz, Lois A; Haidet, Paul; Green, Alexander R; Borzecki, Ann M; Kressin, Nancy R

2012-12-01

Uncontrolled hypertension remains a significant problem for many patients. Few interventions to improve patients' hypertension self-management have had lasting effects. Previous work has focused largely on patients' beliefs as predictors of behavior, but little is understood about beliefs as they are embedded in patients' social contexts. This study aims to explore how patients' "explanatory models" of hypertension (understandings of the causes, mechanisms or pathophysiology, course of illness, symptoms and effects of treatment) and social context relate to their reported daily hypertension self-management behaviors. Semi-structured qualitative interviews with a diverse group of patients at two large urban Veterans Administration Medical centers. PARTICIPANTS (OR PATIENTS OR SUBJECTS): African-American, white and Latino Veterans Affairs (VA) primary care patients with uncontrolled blood pressure. We conducted thematic analysis using tools of grounded theory to identify key themes surrounding patients' explanatory models, social context and hypertension management behaviors. Patients' perceptions of the cause and course of hypertension, experiences of hypertension symptoms, and beliefs about the effectiveness of treatment were related to different hypertension self-management behaviors. Moreover, patients' daily-lived experiences, such as an isolated lifestyle, serious competing health problems, a lack of habits and routines, barriers to exercise and prioritizing lifestyle choices, also interfered with optimal hypertension self-management. Designing interventions to improve patients' hypertension self-management requires consideration of patients' explanatory models and their daily-lived experience. We propose a new conceptual model - the dynamic model of hypertension self-management behavior - which incorporates these key elements of patients' experiences.

The Relative Salience of Daily and Enduring Influences on Off-Job Reactions to Work Stress.

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Calderwood, Charles; Ackerman, Phillip L

2016-12-01

Work stress is an important determinant of employee health and wellness. The occupational health community is recognizing that one contributor to these relationships may be the presence of negative off-job reactivity to work, which we argue involves continued thoughts directed towards work (cognitive reactivity), continued negative mood stemming from work (affective reactivity), and the alteration of post-work behaviours in response to work factors (behavioural reactivity). We explored the relative contributions of daily work stressors, affective traits, and subjective job stress perceptions to negative off-job reactivity. These relationships were evaluated in a study of hospital nurses (n = 75), who completed trait measures and then provided self-assessments of daily work stress and off-job reactions for four work days. The results of several multilevel analyses indicated that a main-effects model best described the data when predicting cognitive, affective, and behavioural reactivity from daily work stressors, affective traits, and subjective job stress perceptions. A series of multilevel dominance analyses revealed that subjective job stress perceptions dominated the prediction of behavioural reactivity, while trait negative affect dominated the prediction of affective reactivity. Theoretical implications and the relative salience of daily and enduring contributors to negative off-job reactivity are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reconstruction of missing daily streamflow data using dynamic regression models

Science.gov (United States)

Tencaliec, Patricia; Favre, Anne-Catherine; Prieur, Clémentine; Mathevet, Thibault

2015-12-01

River discharge is one of the most important quantities in hydrology. It provides fundamental records for water resources management and climate change monitoring. Even very short data-gaps in this information can cause extremely different analysis outputs. Therefore, reconstructing missing data of incomplete data sets is an important step regarding the performance of the environmental models, engineering, and research applications, thus it presents a great challenge. The objective of this paper is to introduce an effective technique for reconstructing missing daily discharge data when one has access to only daily streamflow data. The proposed procedure uses a combination of regression and autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) called dynamic regression model. This model uses the linear relationship between neighbor and correlated stations and then adjusts the residual term by fitting an ARIMA structure. Application of the model to eight daily streamflow data for the Durance river watershed showed that the model yields reliable estimates for the missing data in the time series. Simulation studies were also conducted to evaluate the performance of the procedure.

Daily reservoir inflow forecasting combining QPF into ANNs model

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jun; Cheng, Chun-Tian; Liao, Sheng-Li; Wu, Xin-Yu; Shen, Jian-Jian

2009-01-01

Daily reservoir inflow predictions with lead-times of several days are essential to the operational planning and scheduling of hydroelectric power system. The demand for quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) is increasing in hydropower operation with the dramatic advances in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. This paper presents a simple and an effective algorithm for daily reservoir inflow predictions which solicits the observed precipitation, forecasted precipitation from QPF as predictors and discharges in following 1 to 6 days as predicted targets for multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (MLP-ANNs) modeling. An improved error back-propagation algorithm with self-adaptive learning rate and self-adaptive momentum coefficient is used to make the supervised training procedure more efficient in both time saving and search optimization. Several commonly used error measures are employed to evaluate the performance of the proposed model and the results, compared with that of ARIMA model, show that the proposed model is capable of obtaining satisfactory forecasting not only in goodness of fit but also in generalization. Furthermore, the presented algorithm is integrated into a practical software system which has been severed for daily inflow predictions with lead-times varying from 1 to 6 days of more than twenty reservoirs operated by the Fujian Province Grid Company, China.

Hospital daily outpatient visits forecasting using a combinatorial model based on ARIMA and SES models.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Li; Luo, Le; Zhang, Xinli; He, Xiaoli

2017-07-10

Accurate forecasting of hospital outpatient visits is beneficial for the reasonable planning and allocation of healthcare resource to meet the medical demands. In terms of the multiple attributes of daily outpatient visits, such as randomness, cyclicity and trend, time series methods, ARIMA, can be a good choice for outpatient visits forecasting. On the other hand, the hospital outpatient visits are also affected by the doctors' scheduling and the effects are not pure random. Thinking about the impure specialty, this paper presents a new forecasting model that takes cyclicity and the day of the week effect into consideration. We formulate a seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model on a daily time series and then a single exponential smoothing (SES) model on the day of the week time series, and finally establish a combinatorial model by modifying them. The models are applied to 1 year of daily visits data of urban outpatients in two internal medicine departments of a large hospital in Chengdu, for forecasting the daily outpatient visits about 1 week ahead. The proposed model is applied to forecast the cross-sectional data for 7 consecutive days of daily outpatient visits over an 8-weeks period based on 43 weeks of observation data during 1 year. The results show that the two single traditional models and the combinatorial model are simplicity of implementation and low computational intensiveness, whilst being appropriate for short-term forecast horizons. Furthermore, the combinatorial model can capture the comprehensive features of the time series data better. Combinatorial model can achieve better prediction performance than the single model, with lower residuals variance and small mean of residual errors which needs to be optimized deeply on the next research step.

User modeling and adaptation for daily routines providing assistance to people with special needs

CERN Document Server

Martín, Estefanía; Carro, Rosa M

2013-01-01

User Modeling and Adaptation for Daily Routines is motivated by the need to bring attention to how people with special needs can benefit from adaptive methods and techniques in their everyday lives. Assistive technologies, adaptive systems and context-aware applications are three well-established research fields. There is, in fact, a vast amount of literature that covers HCI-related issues in each area separately. However, the contributions in the intersection of these areas have been less visible, despite the fact that such synergies may have a great impact on improving daily living.Presentin

Forecasting daily political opinion polls using the fractionally cointegrated VAR model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Shibaev, Sergei S.

We examine forecasting performance of the recent fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model. We use daily polling data of political support in the United Kingdom for 2010-2015 and compare with popular competing models at several forecast horizons. Our findings show that the four...... trend from the model follows the vote share of the UKIP very closely, and we thus interpret it as a measure of Euro-skepticism in public opinion rather than an indicator of the more traditional left-right political spectrum. In terms of prediction of vote shares in the election, forecasts generated...... variants of the FCVAR model considered are generally ranked as the top four models in terms of forecast accuracy, and the FCVAR model significantly outperforms both univariate fractional models and the standard cointegrated VAR (CVAR) model at all forecast horizons. The relative forecast improvement...

Interpolation of daily rainfall using spatiotemporal models and clustering

KAUST Repository

Militino, A. F.

2014-06-11

Accumulated daily rainfall in non-observed locations on a particular day is frequently required as input to decision-making tools in precision agriculture or for hydrological or meteorological studies. Various solutions and estimation procedures have been proposed in the literature depending on the auxiliary information and the availability of data, but most such solutions are oriented to interpolating spatial data without incorporating temporal dependence. When data are available in space and time, spatiotemporal models usually provide better solutions. Here, we analyse the performance of three spatiotemporal models fitted to the whole sampled set and to clusters within the sampled set. The data consists of daily observations collected from 87 manual rainfall gauges from 1990 to 2010 in Navarre, Spain. The accuracy and precision of the interpolated data are compared with real data from 33 automated rainfall gauges in the same region, but placed in different locations than the manual rainfall gauges. Root mean squared error by months and by year are also provided. To illustrate these models, we also map interpolated daily precipitations and standard errors on a 1km2 grid in the whole region. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.

Interpolation of daily rainfall using spatiotemporal models and clustering

KAUST Repository

Militino, A. F.; Ugarte, M. D.; Goicoa, T.; Genton, Marc G.

2014-01-01

Accumulated daily rainfall in non-observed locations on a particular day is frequently required as input to decision-making tools in precision agriculture or for hydrological or meteorological studies. Various solutions and estimation procedures have been proposed in the literature depending on the auxiliary information and the availability of data, but most such solutions are oriented to interpolating spatial data without incorporating temporal dependence. When data are available in space and time, spatiotemporal models usually provide better solutions. Here, we analyse the performance of three spatiotemporal models fitted to the whole sampled set and to clusters within the sampled set. The data consists of daily observations collected from 87 manual rainfall gauges from 1990 to 2010 in Navarre, Spain. The accuracy and precision of the interpolated data are compared with real data from 33 automated rainfall gauges in the same region, but placed in different locations than the manual rainfall gauges. Root mean squared error by months and by year are also provided. To illustrate these models, we also map interpolated daily precipitations and standard errors on a 1km2 grid in the whole region. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.

Daily stress interacts with trait dissociation to predict sleep-related experiences in young adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Soffer-Dudek, Nirit; Shahar, Golan

2011-08-01

Building on the previously documented effects of stress and dissociation on sleep and dreaming, we examined their interactive role in general sleep-related experiences (GSEs; e.g., nightmares, falling dreams, hypnagogic hallucinations; see Watson, 2001). Stress, sleep quality, and GSEs were assessed daily for 14 days among young adults. Baseline assessment included life stress, sleep quality, psychopathology, dissociation, and related dimensions. Multilevel analyses indicated that daily stress brings about GSEs among highly dissociative young adults. Additionally, baseline trait dissociation predicted within-subject elevation in GSEs when daily stress was high. Flawed sleep-wake transitions, previously linked to dissociation and sleep-related experiences, might account for this effect. © 2011 American Psychological Association

Neoadjuvant twice daily chemoradiotherapy for esophageal cancer: Treatment-related mortality and long-term outcomes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stuart E. Samuels, MD, PhD

2017-07-01

Conclusion: Neoadjuvant twice-daily chemoradiation for esophageal cancer is a safe and effective alternative to daily fractionation with low treatment-related mortality and long-term outcomes similar to standard fractionation courses.

Instantaneous-to-daily GPP upscaling schemes based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model: correcting the overestimation of GPP by directly using daily average meteorological inputs.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Fumin; Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Black, T Andrew; Zhou, Bin

2014-11-01

Daily canopy photosynthesis is usually temporally upscaled from instantaneous (i.e., seconds) photosynthesis rate. The nonlinear response of photosynthesis to meteorological variables makes the temporal scaling a significant challenge. In this study, two temporal upscaling schemes of daily photosynthesis, the integrated daily model (IDM) and the segmented daily model (SDM), are presented by considering the diurnal variations of meteorological variables based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model. The two models, as well as a simple average daily model (SADM) with daily average meteorological inputs, were validated using the tower-derived gross primary production (GPP) to assess their abilities in simulating daily photosynthesis. The results showed IDM closely followed the seasonal trend of the tower-derived GPP with an average RMSE of 1.63 g C m(-2) day(-1), and an average Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E) of 0.87. SDM performed similarly to IDM in GPP simulation but decreased the computation time by >66%. SADM overestimated daily GPP by about 15% during the growing season compared to IDM. Both IDM and SDM greatly decreased the overestimation by SADM, and improved the simulation of daily GPP by reducing the RMSE by 34 and 30%, respectively. The results indicated that IDM and SDM are useful temporal upscaling approaches, and both are superior to SADM in daily GPP simulation because they take into account the diurnally varying responses of photosynthesis to meteorological variables. SDM is computationally more efficient, and therefore more suitable for long-term and large-scale GPP simulations.

[Comparison of three daily global solar radiation models].

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Jin-Ming; Fan, Wen-Yi; Zhao, Ying-Hui

2014-08-01

Three daily global solar radiation estimation models ( Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al.) were analyzed and compared using data of 13 weather stations from 1982 to 2012 from three northeastern provinces and eastern Inner Mongolia. After cross-validation analysis, the result showed that mean absolute error (MAE) for each model was 1.71, 2.83 and 1.68 MJ x m(-2) x d(-1) respectively, showing that Å-P model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. which used percentage of sunshine had an advantage over Thornton-Running model which didn't use percentage of sunshine. Model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. played a good effect on the situation of non-sunshine, and its MAE and bias percentage were 18.5% and 33.8% smaller than those of Å-P model, respectively. High precision results could be obtained by using the simple linear model of Å-P. Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. overvalued daily global solar radiation by 12.2%, 19.2% and 9.9% respectively. MAE for each station varied little with the spatial change of location, and annual MAE decreased with the advance of years. The reason for this might be that the change of observation accuracy caused by the replacement of radiation instrument in 1993. MAEs for rainy days, non-sunshine days and warm seasons of the three models were greater than those for days without rain, sunshine days and cold seasons respectively, showing that different methods should be used for different weather conditions on estimating solar radiation with meteorological elements.

Gridded daily Indian monsoon rainfall for 14 seasons: Merged ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Indian monsoon is an important component of earth's climate system. Daily rainfall data for longer period is vital to study components and processes related to Indian monsoon. Daily observed gridded rainfall data covering both land and adjoining oceanic regions are required for numerical model vali- dation and model ...

Less Daily Computer Use is Related to Smaller Hippocampal Volumes in Cognitively Intact Elderly.

Science.gov (United States)

Silbert, Lisa C; Dodge, Hiroko H; Lahna, David; Promjunyakul, Nutta-On; Austin, Daniel; Mattek, Nora; Erten-Lyons, Deniz; Kaye, Jeffrey A

2016-01-01

Computer use is becoming a common activity in the daily life of older individuals and declines over time in those with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). The relationship between daily computer use (DCU) and imaging markers of neurodegeneration is unknown. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between average DCU and volumetric markers of neurodegeneration on brain MRI. Cognitively intact volunteers enrolled in the Intelligent Systems for Assessing Aging Change study underwent MRI. Total in-home computer use per day was calculated using mouse movement detection and averaged over a one-month period surrounding the MRI. Spearman's rank order correlation (univariate analysis) and linear regression models (multivariate analysis) examined hippocampal, gray matter (GM), white matter hyperintensity (WMH), and ventricular cerebral spinal fluid (vCSF) volumes in relation to DCU. A voxel-based morphometry analysis identified relationships between regional GM density and DCU. Twenty-seven cognitively intact participants used their computer for 51.3 minutes per day on average. Less DCU was associated with smaller hippocampal volumes (r = 0.48, p = 0.01), but not total GM, WMH, or vCSF volumes. After adjusting for age, education, and gender, less DCU remained associated with smaller hippocampal volume (p = 0.01). Voxel-wise analysis demonstrated that less daily computer use was associated with decreased GM density in the bilateral hippocampi and temporal lobes. Less daily computer use is associated with smaller brain volume in regions that are integral to memory function and known to be involved early with Alzheimer's pathology and conversion to dementia. Continuous monitoring of daily computer use may detect signs of preclinical neurodegeneration in older individuals at risk for dementia.

Development and evaluation of neural network models to estimate daily solar radiation at Córdoba, Argentina

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bocco, M.

2006-01-01

The objective of this work was to develop neural network models of backpropagation type to estimate solar radiation based on extraterrestrial radiation data, daily temperature range, precipitation, cloudiness and relative sunshine duration. Data from Córdoba, Argentina, were used for development and validation. The behaviour and adjustment between values observed and estimates obtained by neural networks for different combinations of input were assessed. These estimations showed root mean square error between 3.15 and 3.88 MJ m -2 d -1 . The latter corresponds to the model that calculates radiation using only precipitation and daily temperature range. In all models, results show good adjustment to seasonal solar radiation. These results allow inferring the adequate performance and pertinence of this methodology to estimate complex phenomena, such as solar radiation [pt

Daily rhythm variations of the clock gene PER1 and cancer-related genes during various stages of carcinogenesis in a golden hamster model of buccal mucosa carcinoma

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ye H

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Hua Ye, Kai Yang, Xue-Mei Tan, Xiao-Juan Fu, Han-Xue LiDepartment of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, People’s Republic of ChinaBackground: Recent studies have demonstrated that the clock gene PER1 regulates various tumor-related genes. Abnormal expressions and circadian rhythm alterations of PER1 are closely related to carcinogenesis. However, the dynamic circadian variations of PER1 and tumor-related genes at different stages of carcinogenesis remain unknown. This study was conducted to investigate the daily rhythm variation of PER1 and expression of tumor-related genes VEGF, KI67, C-MYC, and P53 in different stages of carcinogenesis.Materials and methods: Dimethylbenzanthracene was used to establish a golden hamster model of buccal mucosa carcinogenesis. Hamsters with normal buccal mucosa, precancerous lesion, and cancerous lesion were sacrificed at six different time points during a 24-hour period of a day. Pathological examination was conducted using routine hematoxylin and eosin staining. PER1, VEGF, KI67, C-MYC, and P53 mRNAs were detected by real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction, and a cosinor analysis was applied to analyze the daily rhythm.Results: PER1, VEGF, C-MYC, and P53 mRNA exhibited daily rhythmic expression in three carcinogenesis stages, and KI67 mRNA exhibited daily rhythmic expression in the normal and precancerous stages. The daily rhythmic expression of KI67 was not observed in cancerous stages. The mesor and amplitude of PER1 and P53 mRNA expression decreased upon the development of cancer (P<0.05, whereas the mesor and amplitude of VEGF, KI67, and C-MYC mRNA increased upon the development of cancer (P<0.05. Compared with the normal tissues, the acrophases of PER1, VEGF, and C-MYC mRNA occurred earlier, whereas the acrophases of P53 and KI67 mRNA lagged remarkably in the precancerous lesions. In the cancer stage, the acrophases

Climate change web picker. A tool bridging daily climate needs in process based modelling in forestry and agriculture

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Palma, J.H.N.

2017-11-01

Aim of study: Climate data is a need for different types of modeling assessments, especially those involving process based modeling focusing on climate change impacts. However, there is a scarcity of tools delivering easy access to climate datasets to use in biological related modeling. This study aimed at the development of a tool that could provide an user-friendly interface to facilitate access to climate datasets, that are used to supply climate scenarios for the International Panel on Climate Change. Area of study: The tool provides daily datasets across Europe, and also parts of northern Africa Material and Methods: The tool uses climatic datasets generated from third party sources (IPCC related) while a web based interface was developed in JavaScript to ease the access to the datasets Main Results: The interface delivers daily (or monthly) climate data from a user-defined location in Europe for 7 climate variables: minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, radiation, minimum and maximum relative humidity and wind speed). The time frame ranges from 1951 to 2100, providing the basis to use the data for climate change impact assessments. The tool is free and publicly available at http://www.isa.ulisboa.pt/proj/clipick/. Research Highlights: A new and easy-to-use tool is suggested that will promote the use of climate change scenarios across Europe, especially when daily time steps are needed. CliPick eases the communication between climatic and modelling communities such as agriculture and forestry.

Climate change web picker. A tool bridging daily climate needs in process based modelling in forestry and agriculture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palma, J.H.N.

2017-01-01

Aim of study: Climate data is a need for different types of modeling assessments, especially those involving process based modeling focusing on climate change impacts. However, there is a scarcity of tools delivering easy access to climate datasets to use in biological related modeling. This study aimed at the development of a tool that could provide an user-friendly interface to facilitate access to climate datasets, that are used to supply climate scenarios for the International Panel on Climate Change. Area of study: The tool provides daily datasets across Europe, and also parts of northern Africa Material and Methods: The tool uses climatic datasets generated from third party sources (IPCC related) while a web based interface was developed in JavaScript to ease the access to the datasets Main Results: The interface delivers daily (or monthly) climate data from a user-defined location in Europe for 7 climate variables: minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, radiation, minimum and maximum relative humidity and wind speed). The time frame ranges from 1951 to 2100, providing the basis to use the data for climate change impact assessments. The tool is free and publicly available at http://www.isa.ulisboa.pt/proj/clipick/. Research Highlights: A new and easy-to-use tool is suggested that will promote the use of climate change scenarios across Europe, especially when daily time steps are needed. CliPick eases the communication between climatic and modelling communities such as agriculture and forestry.

The effects of disease-related symptoms on daily function in Wolfram Syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Doty, Tasha; Foster, Erin R; Marshall, Bess; Ranck, Samantha; Hershey, Tamara

2017-01-01

To investigate daily function among individuals with Wolfram Syndrome (WFS) and examine whether any limitations are related to disease-related symptoms. WFS ( n = 31), Type 1 diabetic (T1DM; n = 25), and healthy control (HC; n = 29) participants completed the Pediatric Quality of Life Questionnaire (PEDSQL) Self and Parent Report. PEDSQL domain scores were compared among these groups and between WFS patients with and without specific disease-related symptoms. Relationships between PEDSQL scores and symptom severity as assessed by the Wolfram Unified Rating Scale (WURS) Physical Scale were also examined. Across most domains, the WFS group had lower PEDSQL Self and Parent Report scores than the T1DM and HC groups. WFS participants with urinary, sleep, and temperature regulation problems had lower PEDSQL scores than those without. The WURS Physical Scale correlated with Self and Parent Report PEDSQL domains. WFS group Self and Parent Reports correlated with each other. The WFS group reported lower daily function compared to T1DM and HC groups. Within WFS, worse symptom severity and the specific symptoms of sleep, temperature regulation, and urinary problems were associated with poorer daily function. These findings provide rationale for an increased emphasis on identifying, treating and understanding these less well-known symptoms of WFS.

Evaluation of sub daily satellite rainfall estimates through flash flood modelling in the Lower Middle Zambezi Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Matingo

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Flash floods are experienced almost annually in the ungauged Mbire District of the Middle Zambezi Basin. Studies related to hydrological modelling (rainfall-runoff and flood forecasting require major inputs such as precipitation which, due to shortage of observed data, are increasingly using indirect methods for estimating precipitation. This study therefore evaluated performance of CMORPH and TRMM satellite rainfall estimates (SREs for 30 min, 1 h, 3 h and daily intensities through hydrologic and flash flood modelling in the Lower Middle Zambezi Basin for the period 2013–2016. On a daily timestep, uncorrected CMORPH and TRMM show Probability of Detection (POD of 61 and 59 %, respectively, when compared to rain gauge observations. The best performance using Correlation Coefficient (CC was 70 and 60 % on daily timesteps for CMORPH and TRMM, respectively. The best RMSE for CMORPH was 0.81 % for 30 min timestep and for TRMM was 2, 11 % on 3 h timestep. For the year 2014 to 2015, the HEC-HMS (Hydrological Engineering Centre-Hydrological Modelling System daily model calibration Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE for Musengezi sub catchment was 59 % whilst for Angwa it was 55 %. Angwa sub-catchment daily NSE results for the period 2015–2016 was 61 %. HEC-RAS flash flood modeling at 100, 50 and 25 year return periods for Angwa sub catchment, inundated 811 and 867 ha for TRMM rainfall simulated discharge at 3 h and daily timesteps, respectively. For CMORPH generated rainfall, the inundation was 818, 876, 890 and 891 ha at daily, 3 h, 1 h and 30 min timesteps. The 30 min time step for CMORPH effectively captures flash floods with the measure of agreement between simulated flood extent and ground control points of 69 %. For TRMM, the 3 h timestep effectively captures flash floods with coefficient of 67 %. The study therefore concludes that satellite products are most effective in capturing localized

Daily Interpersonal and Affective Dynamics in Personality Disorder

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, Aidan G.C.; Hopwood, Christopher J.; Simms, Leonard J.

2015-01-01

In this naturalistic study we adopt the lens of interpersonal theory to examine between-and within-person differences in dynamic processes of daily affect and interpersonal behaviors among individuals (N = 101) previously diagnosed with personality disorders who completed daily diaries over the course of 100 days. Dispositional ratings of interpersonal problems and measures of daily stress were used as predictors of daily shifts in interpersonal behavior and affect in multilevel models. Results indicate that ~40%–50% of the variance in interpersonal behavior and affect is due to daily fluctuations, which are modestly related to dispositional measures of interpersonal problems but strongly related to daily stress. The findings support conceptions of personality disorders as a dynamic form of psychopathology involving the individuals interacting with and regulating in response to the contextual features of their environment. PMID:26200849

Daily Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using Hybridizing Wavelet and Artificial Neural Network Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ani Shabri

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A new method based on integrating discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks (WANN model for daily crude oil price forecasting is proposed. The discrete Mallat wavelet transform is used to decompose the crude price series into one approximation series and some details series (DS. The new series obtained by adding the effective one approximation series and DS component is then used as input into the ANN model to forecast crude oil price. The relative performance of WANN model was compared to regular ANN model for crude oil forecasting at lead times of 1 day for two main crude oil price series, West Texas Intermediate (WTI and Brent crude oil spot prices. In both cases, WANN model was found to provide more accurate crude oil prices forecasts than individual ANN model.

Modelling the quiet-time geomagnetic daily variations using observatory data

OpenAIRE

Hamilton, Brian; Macmillan, Susan

2008-01-01

We present on-going work towards building a global model of the quiet-time geomagnetic daily variation using bservatory data. We select hourly mean data during June 2006 (solar minimum). We fit Fourier series in time, with a fundamental period of 24 hours, to the data at each observatory. We then use global spherical harmonic expansions to separate the daily variation signal, as characterised by the Fourier coefficients in time, into external and induced internal contributions. The mode...

time series modeling of daily abandoned calls in a call centre

African Journals Online (AJOL)

DJFLEX

Models for evaluating and predicting the short periodic time series in daily ... Ugwuowo (2006) proposed asymmetric angular- linear multivariate regression models, ..... Using the parameter estimates in Table 3, the fitted Fourier series model is ..... For the SARIMA model with the stochastic component also being white noise, ...

Analysis and comparison of safety models using average daily, average hourly, and microscopic traffic.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ling; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Xuesong; Yu, Rongjie

2018-02-01

There have been plenty of traffic safety studies based on average daily traffic (ADT), average hourly traffic (AHT), or microscopic traffic at 5 min intervals. Nevertheless, not enough research has compared the performance of these three types of safety studies, and seldom of previous studies have intended to find whether the results of one type of study is transferable to the other two studies. First, this study built three models: a Bayesian Poisson-lognormal model to estimate the daily crash frequency using ADT, a Bayesian Poisson-lognormal model to estimate the hourly crash frequency using AHT, and a Bayesian logistic regression model for the real-time safety analysis using microscopic traffic. The model results showed that the crash contributing factors found by different models were comparable but not the same. Four variables, i.e., the logarithm of volume, the standard deviation of speed, the logarithm of segment length, and the existence of diverge segment, were positively significant in the three models. Additionally, weaving segments experienced higher daily and hourly crash frequencies than merge and basic segments. Then, each of the ADT-based, AHT-based, and real-time models was used to estimate safety conditions at different levels: daily and hourly, meanwhile, the real-time model was also used in 5 min intervals. The results uncovered that the ADT- and AHT-based safety models performed similar in predicting daily and hourly crash frequencies, and the real-time safety model was able to provide hourly crash frequency. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do personality traits related to affect regulation predict other tobacco product use among young adult non-daily smokers?

Science.gov (United States)

Brikmanis, Kristin; Petersen, Angela; Doran, Neal

2017-12-01

Understanding factors that influence non-cigarette tobacco use is important given these products' prevalence and health risks. The goal of this study was to test the hypothesis that personality traits related to affect regulation would be associated with greater frequency of other tobacco product (OTP) use in a sample of young adult non-daily smokers. Participants (n=518, 51% male) aged 18-24 were non-daily cigarette smokers recruited from the community for a longitudinal study of tobacco use. Personality characteristics (impulsivity, anhedonia, and negative affectivity) were measured at baseline, and participants reported recent tobacco use at baseline and 3, 6, and 9months later. Assessments were conducted online or via mobile phone. Across the 4 assessments, 33-52% of participants reported recent OTP use, with frequency of use decreasing over time. Longitudinal negative binomial regression models indicated that greater sensation seeking and lack of premeditation were associated with more frequent OTP use (psnon-daily cigarette smokers with greater propensity for immediately rewarding behaviors may use OTPs more frequently. Young, non-daily cigarette smokers with high levels of sensation seeking and/or lack of premeditation may be at increased risk for harms related to OTP use and may benefit from prevention and cessation strategies that specifically address affect. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate

Science.gov (United States)

Falcone, Giuseppe; Murru, Maura; Console, Rodolfo; Marzocchi, Warner; Zhuang, Jiancang

2016-04-01

We present a retrospective ETAS (Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence) model based on the daily updating of free parameters during the background, the learning and the test phase of a seismic sequence. The idea was born after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Center in Japan provided an appropriate testing benchmark for the five 1-day submitted models. Of all the models, only one was able to successfully predict the number of events that really happened. This result was verified using both the real time and the revised catalogs. The main cause of the failure was in the underestimation of the forecasted events, due to model parameters maintained fixed during the test. Moreover, the absence in the learning catalog of an event similar to the magnitude of the mainshock (M9.0), which drastically changed the seismicity in the area, made the learning parameters not suitable to describe the real seismicity. As an example of this methodological development we show the evolution of the model parameters during the last two strong seismic sequences in Italy: the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Reggio Emilia episodes. The achievement of the model with daily updated parameters is compared with that of same model where the parameters remain fixed during the test time.

The daily commute from work to home: examining employees' experiences in relation to their recovery status.

Science.gov (United States)

van Hooff, Madelon L M

2015-04-01

Sufficient recovery after daily effort expenditure at work is important to protect employee health and well-being. However, the role of commuting in the daily effort-recovery process is still not very well understood. The present study aimed to advance insight in this respect by examining if relaxation, detachment, mastery and stressful delays experienced during the commute from work to home affect employees' recovery status after returning home from work and at the end of the evening. Daily job demands were expected to moderate these effects. Serenity and (low) anxiety were included as indicators of employees' recovery status. Data were collected by means of a 5-day daily diary study (three measurements daily) among 76 participants from various industries. Multilevel analyses showed that relaxation was positively and stressful delays were negatively related to employees' recovery status after returning home from work but not to indicators of recovery at the end of the evening. For detachment, similar relations were found but only on days with high job demands. Mastery was not related to employees' recovery status. These findings enhance our insight in the daily effort-recovery cycle and underline the importance of promoting detachment (on demanding workdays) and relaxation on the way home from work. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Advanced Daily Prediction Model for National Suicide Numbers with Social Media Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Kyung Sang; Lee, Hyewon; Myung, Woojae; Song, Gil-Young; Lee, Kihwang; Kim, Ho; Carroll, Bernard J; Kim, Doh Kwan

2018-04-01

Suicide is a significant public health concern worldwide. Social media data have a potential role in identifying high suicide risk individuals and also in predicting suicide rate at the population level. In this study, we report an advanced daily suicide prediction model using social media data combined with economic/meteorological variables along with observed suicide data lagged by 1 week. The social media data were drawn from weblog posts. We examined a total of 10,035 social media keywords for suicide prediction. We made predictions of national suicide numbers 7 days in advance daily for 2 years, based on a daily moving 5-year prediction modeling period. Our model predicted the likely range of daily national suicide numbers with 82.9% accuracy. Among the social media variables, words denoting economic issues and mood status showed high predictive strength. Observed number of suicides one week previously, recent celebrity suicide, and day of week followed by stock index, consumer price index, and sunlight duration 7 days before the target date were notable predictors along with the social media variables. These results strengthen the case for social media data to supplement classical social/economic/climatic data in forecasting national suicide events.

Estimated daily salt intake in relation to blood pressure and blood lipids

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thuesen, Betina H; Toft, Ulla; Buhelt, Lone P

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Excessive salt intake causes increased blood pressure which is considered the leading risk for premature death. One major challenge when evaluating associations between daily salt intake and markers of non-communicable diseases is that a high daily salt intake correlates with obesity...... 3294 men and women aged 18-69 years from a general population based study in Copenhagen, Denmark. Estimated 24-hour sodium excretion was calculated by measurements of creatinine and sodium concentration in spot urine in combination with information of sex, age, height and weight. The relations...

Is proportion burned severely related to daily area burned?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birch, Donovan S; Morgan, Penelope; Smith, Alistair M S; Kolden, Crystal A; Hudak, Andrew T

2014-01-01

The ecological effects of forest fires burning with high severity are long-lived and have the greatest impact on vegetation successional trajectories, as compared to low-to-moderate severity fires. The primary drivers of high severity fire are unclear, but it has been hypothesized that wind-driven, large fire-growth days play a significant role, particularly on large fires in forested ecosystems. Here, we examined the relative proportion of classified burn severity for individual daily areas burned that occurred during 42 large forest fires in central Idaho and western Montana from 2005 to 2007 and 2011. Using infrared perimeter data for wildfires with five or more consecutive days of mapped perimeters, we delineated 2697 individual daily areas burned from which we calculated the proportions of each of three burn severity classes (high, moderate, and low) using the differenced normalized burn ratio as mapped for large fires by the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity project. We found that the proportion of high burn severity was weakly correlated (Kendall τ = 0.299) with size of daily area burned (DAB). Burn severity was highly variable, even for the largest (95th percentile) in DAB, suggesting that other variables than fire extent influence the ecological effects of fires. We suggest that these results do not support the prioritization of large runs during fire rehabilitation efforts, since the underlying assumption in this prioritization is a positive relationship between severity and area burned in a day. (letters)

Effects of V4c-ICL Implantation on Myopic Patients’ Vision-Related Daily Activities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Taixiang Liu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The new type implantable Collamer lens with a central hole (V4c-ICL is widely used to treat myopia. However, halos occur in some patients after surgery. The aim is to evaluate the effect of V4c-ICL implantation on vision-related daily activities. This retrospective study included 42 patients. Uncorrected visual acuity (UCVA, best corrected visual acuity (BCVA, intraocular pressure (IOP, endothelial cell density (ECD, and vault were recorded and vision-related daily activities were evaluated at 3 months after operation. The average spherical equivalent was -0.12±0.33 D at 3 months after operation. UCVA equal to or better than preoperative BCVA occurred in 98% of eyes. The average BCVA at 3 months after operation was -0.03±0.07 LogMAR, which was significantly better than preoperative BCVA (0.08±0.10 LogMAR (P=0.029. Apart from one patient (2.4% who had difficulty reading computer screens, all patients had satisfactory or very satisfactory results. During the early postoperation, halos occurred in 23 patients (54.8%. However there were no significant differences in the scores of visual functions between patients with and without halos (P>0.05. Patients were very satisfied with their vision-related daily activities at 3 months after operation. The central hole of V4c-ICL does not affect patients’ vision-related daily activities.

Relative Effects of Daily Feedback and Weekly Feedback on Customer Service Behavior at a Gas Station

Science.gov (United States)

So, Yongjoon; Lee, Kyehoon; Oah, Shezeen

2013-01-01

The relative effects of daily and weekly feedback on customer service behavior at a gas station were assessed using an ABC within-subjects design. Four critical service behaviors were identified and measured daily. After baseline (A), weekly feedback (B) was introduced, and daily feedback (C) was introduced in the next phase. The results indicated…

Spatial interpolation schemes of daily precipitation for hydrologic modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Hwang, Y.; Clark, M.R.; Rajagopalan, B.; Leavesley, G.

2012-01-01

Distributed hydrologic models typically require spatial estimates of precipitation interpolated from sparsely located observational points to the specific grid points. We compare and contrast the performance of regression-based statistical methods for the spatial estimation of precipitation in two hydrologically different basins and confirmed that widely used regression-based estimation schemes fail to describe the realistic spatial variability of daily precipitation field. The methods assessed are: (1) inverse distance weighted average; (2) multiple linear regression (MLR); (3) climatological MLR; and (4) locally weighted polynomial regression (LWP). In order to improve the performance of the interpolations, the authors propose a two-step regression technique for effective daily precipitation estimation. In this simple two-step estimation process, precipitation occurrence is first generated via a logistic regression model before estimate the amount of precipitation separately on wet days. This process generated the precipitation occurrence, amount, and spatial correlation effectively. A distributed hydrologic model (PRMS) was used for the impact analysis in daily time step simulation. Multiple simulations suggested noticeable differences between the input alternatives generated by three different interpolation schemes. Differences are shown in overall simulation error against the observations, degree of explained variability, and seasonal volumes. Simulated streamflows also showed different characteristics in mean, maximum, minimum, and peak flows. Given the same parameter optimization technique, LWP input showed least streamflow error in Alapaha basin and CMLR input showed least error (still very close to LWP) in Animas basin. All of the two-step interpolation inputs resulted in lower streamflow error compared to the directly interpolated inputs. ?? 2011 Springer-Verlag.

A conceptual model of daily water balance following partial clearing from forest to pasture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. A. Bari

2006-01-01

Full Text Available A simple conceptual water balance model representing the streamflow generation processes on a daily time step following land use change is presented. The model consists of five stores: (i Dry, Wet and Subsurface Stores for vertical and lateral water flow, (ii a transient Stream zone Store (iii a saturated Goundwater Store. The soil moisture balance in the top soil Dry and Wet Stores are the most important components of the model and characterize the dynamically varying saturated areas responsible for surface runoff, interflow and deep percolation. The Subsurface Store describes the unsaturated soil moisture balance, extraction of percolated water by vegetation and groundwater recharge. The Groundwater Store controls the baseflow to stream (if any and the groundwater contribution to the stream zone saturated areas. The daily model was developed following a downward approach by analysing data from Ernies (control and Lemon (53% cleared catchments in Western Australia and elaborating a monthly model. The daily model performed very well in simulating daily flow generation processes for both catchments. Most of the model parameters were incorporated a priori from catchment attributes such as surface slope, soil depth, porosity, stream length and initial groundwater depth, and some were calibrated by matching the observed and predicted hydrographs. The predicted groundwater depth, and streamflow volumes across all time steps from daily to monthly to annual were in close agreement with observations for both catchments.

Changes and Attribution of Extreme Precipitation in Climate Models: Subdaily and Daily Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, W.; Villarini, G.; Scoccimarro, E.; Vecchi, G. A.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events are responsible for numerous hazards, including flooding, soil erosion, and landslides. Because of their significant socio-economic impacts, the attribution and projection of these events is of crucial importance to improve our response, mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here we present results from our ongoing work.In terms of attribution, we use idealized experiments [pre-industrial control experiment (PI) and 1% per year increase (1%CO2) in atmospheric CO2] from ten general circulation models produced under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the fraction of attributable risk to examine the CO2 effects on extreme precipitation at the sub-daily and daily scales. We find that the increased CO2 concentration substantially increases the odds of the occurrence of sub-daily precipitation extremes compared to the daily scale in most areas of the world, with the exception of some regions in the sub-tropics, likely in relation to the subsidence of the Hadley Cell. These results point to the large role that atmospheric CO2 plays in extreme precipitation under an idealized framework. Furthermore, we investigate the changes in extreme precipitation events with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) climate experiments using the scenarios consistent with the 1.5°C and 2°C temperature targets. We find that the frequency of annual extreme precipitation at a global scale increases in both 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios until around 2070, after which the magnitudes of the trend become much weaker or even negative. Overall, the frequency of global annual extreme precipitation is similar between 1.5°C and 2°C for the period 2006-2035, and the changes in extreme precipitation in individual seasons are consistent with those for the entire year. The frequency of extreme precipitation in the 2°C experiments is higher than for the 1.5°C experiment after the late 2030s, particularly for the period 2071-2100.

Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMA-GARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ooms, M.; Koopman, S.J.; Carnero, A.M.

2007-01-01

Novel periodic extensions of dynamic long-memory regression models with autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic errors are considered for the analysis of daily electricity spot prices. The parameters of the model with mean and variance specifications are estimated simultaneously by the method of

An empirical model of daily highs and lows of West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Angela W.W.; Wan, Alan T.K.; Kwok, Jerry T.K.

2010-01-01

There is a large collection of literature on energy price forecasting, but most studies typically use monthly average or close-to-close daily price data. In practice, the daily price range constructed from the daily high and low also contains useful information on price volatility and is used frequently in technical analysis. The interaction between the daily high and low and the associated daily range has been examined in several recent studies on stock price and exchange rate forecasts. The present paper adopts a similar approach to analyze the behaviour of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price over a ten-year period. We find that daily highs and lows of the WTI oil price are cointegrated, with the error correction term being closely approximated by the daily price range. Two forecasting models, one based on a vector error correction mechanism and the other based on a transfer function framework with the range taken as a driver variable, are presented for forecasting the daily highs and lows. The results show that both of these models offer significant advantages over the naive random walk and univariate ARIMA models in terms of out-of-sample forecast accuracy. A trading strategy that makes use of the daily high and low forecasts is further developed. It is found that this strategy generally yields very reasonable trading returns over an evaluation period of about two years. (author)

An adaptive wavelet-network model for forecasting daily total solar-radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mellit, A.; Benghanem, M.; Kalogirou, S.A.

2006-01-01

The combination of wavelet theory and neural networks has lead to the development of wavelet networks. Wavelet-networks are feed-forward networks using wavelets as activation functions. Wavelet-networks have been used successfully in various engineering applications such as classification, identification and control problems. In this paper, the use of adaptive wavelet-network architecture in finding a suitable forecasting model for predicting the daily total solar-radiation is investigated. Total solar-radiation is considered as the most important parameter in the performance prediction of renewable energy systems, particularly in sizing photovoltaic (PV) power systems. For this purpose, daily total solar-radiation data have been recorded during the period extending from 1981 to 2001, by a meteorological station in Algeria. The wavelet-network model has been trained by using either the 19 years of data or one year of the data. In both cases the total solar radiation data corresponding to year 2001 was used for testing the model. The network was trained to accept and handle a number of unusual cases. Results indicate that the model predicts daily total solar-radiation values with a good accuracy of approximately 97% and the mean absolute percentage error is not more than 6%. In addition, the performance of the model was compared with different neural network structures and classical models. Training algorithms for wavelet-networks require smaller numbers of iterations when compared with other neural networks. The model can be used to fill missing data in weather databases. Additionally, the proposed model can be generalized and used in different locations and for other weather data, such as sunshine duration and ambient temperature. Finally, an application using the model for sizing a PV-power system is presented in order to confirm the validity of this model

Stochastic modelling of daily rainfall sequences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buishand, T.A.

1977-01-01

Rainfall series of different climatic regions were analysed with the aim of generating daily rainfall sequences. A survey of the data is given in I, 1. When analysing daily rainfall sequences one must be aware of the following points:
a. Seasonality. Because of seasonal variation

Random regression models for daily feed intake in Danish Duroc pigs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Strathe, Anders Bjerring; Mark, Thomas; Jensen, Just

The objective of this study was to develop random regression models and estimate covariance functions for daily feed intake (DFI) in Danish Duroc pigs. A total of 476201 DFI records were available on 6542 Duroc boars between 70 to 160 days of age. The data originated from the National test station......-year-season, permanent, and animal genetic effects. The functional form was based on Legendre polynomials. A total of 64 models for random regressions were initially ranked by BIC to identify the approximate order for the Legendre polynomials using AI-REML. The parsimonious model included Legendre polynomials of 2nd...... order for genetic and permanent environmental curves and a heterogeneous residual variance, allowing the daily residual variance to change along the age trajectory due to scale effects. The parameters of the model were estimated in a Bayesian framework, using the RJMC module of the DMU package, where...

Daily fluctuations in teachers' well-being: a diary study using the Job Demands-Resources model.

Science.gov (United States)

Simbula, Silvia

2010-10-01

The study tests the dynamic nature of the Job Demands-Resources model with regard to both motivational and health impairment processes. It does so by examining whether daily fluctuations in co-workers' support (i.e., a typical job resource) and daily fluctuations in work/family conflict (i.e., a typical job demand) predict day-levels of job satisfaction and mental health through work engagement and exhaustion, respectively. A total of 61 schoolteachers completed a general questionnaire and a daily survey over a period of five consecutive work days. Multilevel analyses provided evidence for both the above processes. Consistently with the hypotheses, our results showed that day-level work engagement mediated the impact of day-level co-workers' support on day-level job satisfaction and day-level mental health, after general levels of work engagement and outcome variables had been controlled for. Moreover, day-level exhaustion mediated the relationship between day-level work/family conflict and day-level job satisfaction and day-level mental health after general levels of exhaustion and outcome variables had been controlled for. These findings provide new insights into the dynamic psychological processes that determine daily fluctuations in employee well-being. Such insights may be transformed into job redesign strategies and other interventions designed to enhance work-related psychological well-being on a daily level.

Intent to quit among daily and non-daily college student smokers

OpenAIRE

Pinsker, E. A.; Berg, C. J.; Nehl, E. J.; Prokhorov, A. V.; Buchanan, T. S.; Ahluwalia, J. S.

2012-01-01

Given the high prevalence of young adult smoking, we examined (i) psychosocial factors and substance use among college students representing five smoking patterns and histories [non-smokers, quitters, native non-daily smokers (i.e. never daily smokers), converted non-daily smokers (i.e. former daily smokers) and daily smokers] and (ii) smoking category as it relates to readiness to quit among current smokers. Of the 4438 students at six Southeast colleges who completed an online survey, 69.7%...

Caregiver Quality of Life and Daily Functioning in Relation to Ventilating Tube Treatment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heidemann, Christian Hamilton; Lauridsen, Henrik Hein; Kjeldsen, Anette Drøhse

2014-01-01

and to investigate possible predictors for clinical success. STUDY DESIGN: Longitudinal observational study. SETTING: Secondary care units. METHODS: Four hundred ninety-one families were enrolled in the study. The Caregiver Impact Questionnaire was applied in the assessment of caregiver quality of life. Caregivers......OBJECTIVE: Caregiver quality of life and daily functioning may improve after ventilating tube treatment in children with otitis media. The aims of this study are to assess possible changes in caregiver quality of life and daily functioning in relation to ventilating tube treatment...... completed questionnaires at baseline and at 1, 3, 6, 12, and 18 months' follow-up. Variables on caregiver daily functioning comprised 4 weeks' history of number of interrupted nights, absenteeism, cancelled social activities, and doctor visits as a result of otitis media in the child. RESULTS: Response...

Modelling daily PM2.5 concentrations at high spatio-temporal resolution across Switzerland.

Science.gov (United States)

de Hoogh, Kees; Héritier, Harris; Stafoggia, Massimo; Künzli, Nino; Kloog, Itai

2018-02-01

Spatiotemporal resolved models were developed predicting daily fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations across Switzerland from 2003 to 2013. Relatively sparse PM 2.5 monitoring data was supplemented by imputing PM 2.5 concentrations at PM 10 sites, using PM 2.5 /PM 10 ratios at co-located sites. Daily PM 2.5 concentrations were first estimated at a 1 × 1km resolution across Switzerland, using Multiangle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD) data in combination with spatiotemporal predictor data in a four stage approach. Mixed effect models (1) were used to predict PM 2.5 in cells with AOD but without PM 2.5 measurements (2). A generalized additive mixed model with spatial smoothing was applied to generate grid cell predictions for those grid cells where AOD was missing (3). Finally, local PM 2.5 predictions were estimated at each monitoring site by regressing the residuals from the 1 × 1km estimate against local spatial and temporal variables using machine learning techniques (4) and adding them to the stage 3 global estimates. The global (1 km) and local (100 m) models explained on average 73% of the total,71% of the spatial and 75% of the temporal variation (all cross validated) globally and on average 89% (total) 95% (spatial) and 88% (temporal) of the variation locally in measured PM 2.5 concentrations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating Daily Evapotranspiration Based on A Model of Evapotranspiration Fraction (EF) for Mixed Pixels

Science.gov (United States)

Xin, X.; Li, F.; Peng, Z.; Qinhuo, L.

2017-12-01

Land surface heterogeneities significantly affect the reliability and accuracy of remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET), and it gets worse for lower resolution data. At the same time, temporal scale extrapolation of the instantaneous latent heat flux (LE) at satellite overpass time to daily ET are crucial for applications of such remote sensing product. The purpose of this paper is to propose a simple but efficient model for estimating daytime evapotranspiration considering heterogeneity of mixed pixels. In order to do so, an equation to calculate evapotranspiration fraction (EF) of mixed pixels was derived based on two key assumptions. Assumption 1: the available energy (AE) of each sub-pixel equals approximately to that of any other sub-pixels in the same mixed pixel within acceptable margin of bias, and as same as the AE of the mixed pixel. It's only for a simpification of the equation, and its uncertainties and resulted errors in estimated ET are very small. Assumption 2: EF of each sub-pixel equals to the EF of the nearest pure pixel(s) of same land cover type. This equation is supposed to be capable of correcting the spatial scale error of the mixed pixels EF and can be used to calculated daily ET with daily AE data.The model was applied to an artificial oasis in the midstream of Heihe River. HJ-1B satellite data were used to estimate the lumped fluxes at the scale of 300 m after resampling the 30-m resolution datasets to 300 m resolution, which was used to carry on the key step of the model. The results before and after correction were compare to each other and validated using site data of eddy-correlation systems. Results indicated that the new model is capable of improving accuracy of daily ET estimation relative to the lumped method. Validations at 12 sites of eddy-correlation systems for 9 days of HJ-1B overpass showed that the R² increased to 0.82 from 0.62; the RMSE decreased to 1.60 MJ/m² from 2.47MJ/m²; the MBE decreased from 1.92 MJ/m² to 1

The effects of disease-related symptoms on daily function in Wolfram Syndrome

Science.gov (United States)

Doty, Tasha; Foster, Erin R.; Marshall, Bess; Ranck, Samantha; Hershey, Tamara

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To investigate daily function among individuals with Wolfram Syndrome (WFS) and examine whether any limitations are related to disease-related symptoms. METHODS: WFS (n = 31), Type 1 diabetic (T1DM; n = 25), and healthy control (HC; n = 29) participants completed the Pediatric Quality of Life Questionnaire (PEDSQL) Self and Parent Report. PEDSQL domain scores were compared among these groups and between WFS patients with and without specific disease-related symptoms. Relationships between PEDSQL scores and symptom severity as assessed by the Wolfram Unified Rating Scale (WURS) Physical Scale were also examined. RESULTS: Across most domains, the WFS group had lower PEDSQL Self and Parent Report scores than the T1DM and HC groups. WFS participants with urinary, sleep, and temperature regulation problems had lower PEDSQL scores than those without. The WURS Physical Scale correlated with Self and Parent Report PEDSQL domains. WFS group Self and Parent Reports correlated with each other. CONCLUSIONS: The WFS group reported lower daily function compared to T1DM and HC groups. Within WFS, worse symptom severity and the specific symptoms of sleep, temperature regulation, and urinary problems were associated with poorer daily function. These findings provide rationale for an increased emphasis on identifying, treating and understanding these less well-known symptoms of WFS. PMID:29130034

[Development of social activities-related daily life satisfaction scale for the elderly and evaluation of its reliability and validity].

Science.gov (United States)

Okamoto, Hideaki

2010-07-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a Social Activities-Related Daily Life Satisfaction Scale specifically applicable to elderly people in communities and to evaluate its reliability and validity. Sixteen items were extracted from an initial pool and assessed for inclusion in the scale by correlation and exploratory factor analyses. To confirm validity, confirmatory factor analysis was conducted and correlation coefficients were calculated. In addition, t-tests were performed in order to generate scores of the subscale related to activity. To prove reliability, Cronbach's coefficient alpha values were calculated. Data for 755 older adults aged 65 to 84 years were obtained from a mail survey in Ichikawa City, Chiba Prefecture. Exploratory factor analyses indicated that four factors, "satisfaction with learning" (four items), "satisfaction with usefulness to others and society" (four items), "satisfaction with health and physical strength" (three items), and "satisfaction with friends" (three items) should be extracted. Confirmatory factor analysis for assessing the 14-item four-factor model showed high goodness of fit indices (GFI = 0.943, AGFI = 0.915, RMSEA = 0.068). Concurrent validity was established by comparing the score of the scale with five external variables (Activity and Daily Life Satisfaction Scale for the Elderly, Life Satisfaction Index K, etc). Student's t-tests revealed that each score of the subscale was positively associated with activity variable. The overall Cronbach's coefficient alpha for the scale was 0.919 and for its four subscales values ranged from 0.814 to 0.887. A Social Activities-Related Daily Life Satisfaction Scale was derived consisting of four subscales, "satisfaction with learning", "satisfaction with usefulness to others and society", "satisfaction with health and physical strength", and "satisfaction with friends". The results of the present study suggested that the Social Activities-Related Daily Life Satisfaction Scale

Influence of daily versus monthly fire emissions on atmospheric model applications in the tropics

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Marlier, M. E.; Voulgarakis, A.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.; DeFries, R. S.

2012-12-01

Fires are widely used throughout the tropics to create and maintain areas for agriculture, but are also significant contributors to atmospheric trace gas and aerosol concentrations. However, the timing and magnitude of fire activity can vary strongly by year and ecosystem type. For example, frequent, low intensity fires dominate in African savannas whereas Southeast Asian peatland forests are susceptible to huge pulses of emissions during regional El Niño droughts. Despite the potential implications for modeling interactions with atmospheric chemistry and transport, fire emissions have commonly been input into global models at a monthly resolution. Recognizing the uncertainty that this can introduce, several datasets have parsed fire emissions to daily and sub-daily scales with satellite active fire detections. In this study, we explore differences between utilizing the monthly and daily Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) products as inputs into the NASA GISS-E2 composition climate model. We aim to understand how the choice of the temporal resolution of fire emissions affects uncertainty with respect to several common applications of global models: atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climate. Focusing our analysis on tropical ozone, carbon monoxide, and aerosols, we compare modeled concentrations with available ground and satellite observations. We find that increasing the temporal frequency of fire emissions from monthly to daily can improve correlations with observations, predominately in areas or during seasons more heavily affected by fires. Differences between the two datasets are more evident with public health applications: daily resolution fire emissions increases the number of days exceeding World Health Organization air quality targets.

Sensory retraining: burden in daily life related to altered sensation after orthognathic surgery, a randomized clinical trial.

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Phillips, C; Kim, S H; Tucker, M; Turvey, T A

2010-08-01

Assess the long-term effect of sensory retraining exercises, age, gender, type of surgery, and pre-surgical psychological distress on patients' perception of the interference related to altered sensation 2 years after orthognathic surgery. A total of 186 subjects with a developmental dentofacial disharmony were enrolled in a multicenter randomized clinical trial: one center was a community-based practice and the other a university-based center. Subjects were randomly allocated to two groups: standard of care mouth opening exercises after BSSO or a progressive series of sensory retraining facial exercises in addition to the opening exercises. At 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months after surgery, subjects scored unusual feelings on the face, numbness, and loss of lip sensitivity from 'no problem (1)' to 'serious problem (7)'. A marginal proportional odds model was fit for each of the ordinal outcomes. Up to 2 years after surgery, the opening exercise only group had a higher likelihood of reporting interference in daily activities related to numbness and loss of lip sensitivity than the sensory retraining exercise group. The difference between the two groups was relatively constant. Older subjects and those with elevated psychological distress before surgery reported higher burdens related to unusual facial feelings, numbness, and loss of lip sensitivity (p pre-surgical counseling regarding the impact on daily life of persistent altered sensation following a mandibular osteotomy.

Daily physical activity and its relation to aerobic fitness in children aged 8-11 years

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dencker, Magnus; Thorsson, Ola; Karlsson, Magnus K.

2006-01-01

and fitness in children has been published, where fitness has been assessed by direct measurement of maximum oxygen uptake and related to daily physical activity intensities by accelerometers. We examined 248 children (140 boys and 108 girls), aged 7.9-11.1 years. Maximum workload and maximal oxygen uptake...... in vigorous physical activity were calculated. VO2PEAK was correlated with mean accelerometer counts (r=0.23 for boys and r=0.23 for girls, both Pactivity (r=0.32 for boys, r=0.30 for girls, both P...Abstract  A positive relationship between daily physical activity and aerobic fitness exists in adults. Studies in children have given conflicting results, possibly because of differences in methods used to assess daily physical activity and fitness. No study regarding daily physical activity...

Relations between mothers' daily work, home, and relationship stress with characteristics of mother-child conflict interactions.

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Nelson, Jackie A; Boyer, Brittany P; Villarreal, Deyaun L; Smith, Olivia A

2017-06-01

This study examined whether daily variations in levels of mothers' work, home, and relationship stress were related to collaborative and oppositional qualities of mother-child conflict interactions across 1 week. Mothers reported on 1 specific conflict interaction with their 5- to 8-year-old child and their work, home, and relationship stress through online surveys each day for 7 consecutive days. Diary data from 142 mothers were analyzed in 6 multilevel models, each including within- and between-family levels of a stressor predicting collaborative or oppositional conflict qualities. Results suggested that families in the sample differed from each other, and also varied during the week, in collaborative and oppositional conflict qualities as well as stress in all 3 domains. Mothers reported a greater degree of oppositional conflict qualities on days characterized by higher perceptions of home chaos. Additionally, mothers who reported higher average levels of negativity in romantic relationships endorsed oppositional conflict qualities to a greater extent than mothers with lower relationship negativity. Two multilevel models including all 3 stressors in relation to collaborative and oppositional conflict revealed that for mothers managing multiple roles, average romantic relationship stress was the most important unique contributor to mother-child conflict qualities and daily relationship stress was particularly influential among mothers with sons compared to those with daughters. Results support the spillover hypothesis of stress within the family system and are discussed in terms of mothers' coping mechanisms and emotional engagement. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Multiobjective Optimal Algorithm for Automatic Calibration of Daily Streamflow Forecasting Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Liu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Single-objection function cannot describe the characteristics of the complicated hydrologic system. Consequently, it stands to reason that multiobjective functions are needed for calibration of hydrologic model. The multiobjective algorithms based on the theory of nondominate are employed to solve this multiobjective optimal problem. In this paper, a novel multiobjective optimization method based on differential evolution with adaptive Cauchy mutation and Chaos searching (MODE-CMCS is proposed to optimize the daily streamflow forecasting model. Besides, to enhance the diversity performance of Pareto solutions, a more precise crowd distance assigner is presented in this paper. Furthermore, the traditional generalized spread metric (SP is sensitive with the size of Pareto set. A novel diversity performance metric, which is independent of Pareto set size, is put forward in this research. The efficacy of the new algorithm MODE-CMCS is compared with the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II on a daily streamflow forecasting model based on support vector machine (SVM. The results verify that the performance of MODE-CMCS is superior to the NSGA-II for automatic calibration of hydrologic model.

Loneliness, Daily Pain, and Perceptions of Interpersonal Events in Adults with Fibromyalgia

Science.gov (United States)

Wolf, Laurie Dempsey; Davis, Mary C.

2014-01-01

Objective This study examined whether individual differences in loneliness and/or daily exacerbations in loneliness relate to daily pain and frequency and perception of interpersonal events among individuals with fibromyalgia (FM). Methods 118 participants with FM completed electronic diaries each evening for 21 days to assess the occurrence of positive and negative interpersonal events, event appraisals, and pain. Multilevel modeling was used to examine relations of chronic and transitory loneliness to daily life outcomes, controlling for daily depressive symptoms. Results Chronic and transitory loneliness were associated with more frequent reports of negative and less frequent reports of positive interpersonal daily events, higher daily stress ratings and lower daily enjoyment ratings, and higher daily pain levels. Neither chronic nor transitory loneliness moderated the relations between daily negative events and either stress appraisals or pain. However, both chronic and transitory loneliness moderated the relation between daily positive events and enjoyment appraisals. Specifically, on days of greater numbers of positive events than usual, lonely people had larger boosts in enjoyment than did nonlonely people. Similarly, days with greater than usual numbers of positive events were related to larger boosts in enjoyment if an individual was also experiencing higher than usual loneliness levels. Conclusions Chronic and transient episodes of loneliness are associated with more negative daily social relations and pain. However, boosts in positive events yield greater boosts in day-to-day enjoyment of social relations for lonely versus nonlonely individuals, and during loneliness episodes, a finding that can inform future interventions for individuals with chronic pain. PMID:25180546

Weekly Cycles in Daily Report Data: An Overlooked Issue.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yu; West, Stephen G

2016-10-01

Daily diaries and other everyday experience methods are increasingly used to study relationships between two time-varying variables X and Y. Although daily data potentially often have weekly cyclical patterns (e.g., stress may be higher on weekdays and lower on weekends), the majority of daily diary studies have ignored this possibility. In this study, we investigated the effect of ignoring existing weekly cycles. We reanalyzed an empirical dataset (stress and alcohol consumption) and performed Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the impact of omitting weekly cycles. In the empirical dataset, ignoring cycles led to the inference of a significant within-person X-Y relation whereas modeling cycles suggested that this relationship did not exist. Simulation results indicated that ignoring cycles that existed in both X and Y led to bias in the estimated within-person X-Y relationship. The amount and direction of bias depended on the magnitude of the cycles, magnitude of the true within-person X-Y relation, and synchronization of the cycles. We encourage researchers conducting daily diary studies to address potential weekly cycles in their data. We provide guidelines for detecting and modeling cycles to remove their influence and discuss challenges of causal inference in daily experience studies. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Modeling Daily Rainfall Conditional on Atmospheric Predictors: An application to Western Greece

Science.gov (United States)

Langousis, Andreas; Kaleris, Vassilios

2013-04-01

Due to its intermittent and highly variable character, daily precipitation is the least well reproduced hydrologic variable by both General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Limited Area Models (LAMs). To that extent, several statistical procedures (usually referred to as downscaling schemes) have been suggested to generate synthetic rainfall time series conditional on predictor variables that are descriptive of the atmospheric circulation at the mesoscale. In addition to be more accurately simulated by GCMs and LAMs, large-scale atmospheric predictors are important indicators of the local weather. Currently used downscaling methods simulate rainfall series using either stable statistical relationships (usually referred to as transfer functions) between certain characteristics of the rainfall process and mesoscale atmospheric predictor variables, or simple stochastic schemes (e.g. properly transformed autoregressive models) with parameters that depend on the large-scale atmospheric conditions. The latter are determined by classifying large-scale circulation patterns into broad categories of weather states, using empirical or theoretically based classification schemes, and modeled by resampling from those categories; a process usually referred to as weather generation. In this work we propose a statistical framework to generate synthetic rainfall timeseries at a daily level, conditional on large scale atmospheric predictors. The latter include the mean sea level pressure (MSLP), the magnitude and direction of upper level geostrophic winds, and the 500 hPa geopotential height, relative vorticity and divergence. The suggested framework operates in continuous time, avoiding the use of transfer functions, and weather classification schemes. The suggested downscaling approach is validated using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive (see http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/index), and daily rainfall data from Western Greece, for the 14-year period from 01 October

Urgency traits moderate daily relations between affect and drinking to intoxication among young adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Bold, Krysten W; Fucito, Lisa M; DeMartini, Kelly S; Leeman, Robert F; Kranzler, Henry R; Corbin, William R; O'Malley, Stephanie S

2017-01-01

Young adults with higher trait urgency (i.e., a tendency to act rashly in response to heightened affect) may be especially vulnerable to heavy drinking. The current study examined 1) the influence of urgency on daily relations between affect and drinking to intoxication, and 2) whether urgency influenced the effectiveness of naltrexone (vs. placebo) for reducing alcohol use. This study is a secondary analysis of data from 126 (n=40 female) heavy drinking young adults, ages 18-25, enrolled in a double-blind, 8-week clinical trial comparing brief motivational intervention and either naltrexone or placebo. Multilevel models examined whether trait urgency moderated daily relations between positive and negative affect and drinking to intoxication, measured by an estimated blood-alcohol concentration (eBAC) at or above the legal limit (≥0.08g%). Person-level interactions examined whether naltrexone was more effective than placebo at reducing the odds of eBAC≥0.08g% for individuals with higher vs. lower trait urgency. On days of greater within-person positive or negative affect, young adults with higher urgency were more likely to drink to intoxication than those with lower urgency. Naltrexone reduced the odds of drinking to intoxication significantly more than placebo, independent of positive or negative urgency. Although naltrexone treatment reduced drinking overall, young adults with higher trait urgency were still at increased risk for hazardous drinking following times of strong positive or negative mood. Targeted interventions are needed to reduce the risk of heavy drinking among young adults with high trait urgency. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Daily urban systems in function of the spatial organisation in Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tošić Dragutin

2009-01-01

Full Text Available In the form of theoretical discussion, this paper makes a brief analysis of relevant methodological steps for determination of Daily Urban Systems and the approach for their spatial-functional representation. The potential of using Daily Urban Systems as instruments for regional planning and regional development has been indicated. A model for determining Daily Urban Systems in Serbia has been proposed according to our socio-economic conditions. The experience thus far in reference to research of demographic, spatial and functional components of Daily Urban Systems demonstrates that for definition of their spatial and temporal manifestation and continuity models, the most relevant indicators are those which relate to distribution and functional specialization of work centers and places of living, and those which relate to quantitative-qualitative characteristics of daily migrants. Daily Urban Systems of Serbia have been developed under the conditions of continuous redistribution of population from rural to urban settlements and more or less synchronized processes of deagrarisation, deindustrialisation and urbanization with general socioeconomic flows. According to the dynamics of development in functions of work, living, education, service activities and public-social facilities in the urban regions, there have been formed Daily Urban Systems with appropriate hierarchy. The paper presents results of the latest research of Daily Urban Systems in Serbia, driven by scientific and appreciative reasons (preparation of the Regional spatial plans for municipalities of Južno pomoravlje and for Timočka krajina, and determination of the nodal systems in Zlatibor county. Daily Urban Systems, especially their regional role and implication, are proposed for instruments of rational spatial-functional organization of Serbia. According to the relevant theoretical-methodological approach and presented empirical evidence, the model of Daily Urban Systems

The relation between price and daily consumption of cigarettes and bidis: findings from the Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Wave 1 Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Pawar, P S; Pednekar, M S; Gupta, P C; Shang, C; Quah, A C K; Fong, G T

2014-12-01

In India, 14% of the population use smoked tobacco products. Increasing prices of these products is one of the measures to curb their consumption. This study analyzes "unit price" and "daily consumption" of cigarettes and bidis and investigates their relation with each other. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in four states of India (Bihar, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra) as a part of the International Tobacco Control Policy (TCP) Evaluation Project (the TCP India Project) during 2010-2011. Information was collected from adult (aged ≥ 15) daily exclusive smokers of cigarette/bidi regarding (a) last purchase (purchase in pack/loose, brand and price) and (b) daily consumption. Average unit price and daily consumption was calculated for different brands and states. Regression model was used to assess the impact of price on daily consumption. Bidis were much less expensive ([symbol in text]0.39) than cigarettes ([symbol in text]3.1). The daily consumption was higher (14) among bidi smokers than cigarette smokers (8). The prices and daily consumption of bidis ([symbol in text]0.33-0.43; 12-15) and cigarettes ([symbol in text]2.9-3.6; 5-9) varied across the four states. The unit prices of bidis and cigarettes did not influence their daily consumption. Smokers purchasing bidis in packs paid substantially less per unit and purchase of bidis and cigarettes in packs influenced their consumption positively. Cigarettes although more expensive than bidis, seem very cheap if compared internationally. Hence, prices of both cigarettes and bidis do not influence their consumption.

A Comparison of Satellite Based, Modeled Derived Daily Solar Radiation Data with Observed Data for the Continental US

Science.gov (United States)

White, Jeffrey W.; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Wilkens, Paul W.; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Hoell, James M.

2010-01-01

Many applications of simulation models and related decision support tools for agriculture and natural resource management require daily meteorological data as inputs. Availability and quality of such data, however, often constrain research and decision support activities that require use of these tools. Daily solar radiation (SRAD) data are especially problematic because the instruments require electronic integrators, accurate sensors are expensive, and calibration standards are seldom available. The Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA/POWER; power.larc.nasa.gov) project at the NASA Langley Research Center estimates daily solar radiation based on data that are derived from satellite observations of outgoing visible radiances and atmospheric parameters based upon satellite observations and assimilation models. The solar data are available for a global 1 degree x 1 degree coordinate grid. SRAD can also be estimated based on attenuation of extraterrestrial radiation (Q0) using daily temperature and rainfall data to estimate the optical thickness of the atmosphere. This study compares daily solar radiation data from NASA/POWER (SRADNP) with instrument readings from 295 stations (SRADOB), as well as with values that were estimated with the WGENR solar generator. WGENR was used both with daily temperature and precipitation records from the stations reporting solar data and records from the NOAA Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), thus providing two additional sources of solar data, SRADWG and SRADCO. Values of SRADNP for different grid cells consistently showed higher correlations (typically 0.85 to 0.95) with SRADOB data than did SRADWG or SRADCO for sites within the corresponding cells. Mean values of SRADOB, SRADWG and SRADNP for sites within a grid cell usually were within 1 MJm-2d-1 of each other, but NASA/POWER values averaged 1.1 MJm-2d-1 lower than SRADOB. The magnitude of this bias was greater at lower latitudes and during summer months and may be at

A No-Arbitrage Fractional Cointegration Model for Futures and Spot Daily Ranges

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rossi, Eduardo; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

2013-01-01

The no-arbitrage relation between futures and spot prices implies an analogous relation between futures and spot daily ranges. The long-memory features of the range-based volatility estimators are analyzed, and fractional cointegration is tested in a semi-parametric framework. In particular, the no...

Depression among unaccompanied minor refugees: the relative contribution of general and acculturation-specific daily hassles.

Science.gov (United States)

Keles, Serap; Friborg, Oddgeir; Idsøe, Thormod; Sirin, Selcuk; Oppedal, Brit

2016-01-01

This study is designed to provide an empirical conceptualization of daily hassles among unaccompanied refugees, and whether they might affect mental health of young refugees after resettlement. First, we examined the underlying structure of daily hassles conceptualized as measuring general and acculturation-specific hassles. Second, we examined whether these two distinct categories of daily hassles significantly contribute to depression above and beyond the impact of premigration trauma. The study was based on self-report questionnaire data collected from 895 unaccompanied refugees who had been granted residence in Norway. Using structural equation modeling, the results confirmed the grouping of hassles in two general categories, which explained 43% of the variance in depression. The findings underscore the importance of current life conditions for unaccompanied refugees' mental health.

Whether, when, and how is spirituality related to well-being? Moving beyond single occasion questionnaires to understanding daily process.

Science.gov (United States)

Kashdan, Todd B; Nezlek, John B

2012-11-01

Prior research suggests that spirituality is positively related to well-being. Nevertheless, within-person variability in spirituality has yet to be addressed. Do people experience greater spirituality on some days versus others? Does daily spirituality predict daily well-being? Do within-person relationships between spirituality and well-being vary as a function of trait spirituality? The authors examined such questions using a daily diary study with 87 participants who provided reports of their daily spirituality and well-being for a total of 1,239 days. They found that daily spirituality was positively related to meaning in life, self-esteem, and positive affect, and the link from daily spirituality to both self-esteem and positive affect was fully mediated by meaning in life. Moreover, within-person relationships between daily spirituality and self-esteem and meaning in life were stronger for people higher in trait spirituality. Lagged analyses found positive relationships between present day spirituality and next day's meaning in life; there was no evidence for meaning in life as a predictor of the next day's spirituality. When focusing on affect, for people higher in trait spirituality, greater negative affect (and lower positive affect) predicted greater spirituality the next day. These results provide new insights into how spirituality operates as a fluctuating experience in daily life.

Modeling daily soil salinity dynamics in response to agricultural and environmental changes in coastal Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Payo, Andrés.; Lázár, Attila N.; Clarke, Derek; Nicholls, Robert J.; Bricheno, Lucy; Mashfiqus, Salehin; Haque, Anisul

2017-05-01

Understanding the dynamics of salt movement in the soil is a prerequisite for devising appropriate management strategies for land productivity of coastal regions, especially low-lying delta regions, which support many millions of farmers around the world. At present, there are no numerical models able to resolve soil salinity at regional scale and at daily time steps. In this research, we develop a novel holistic approach to simulate soil salinization comprising an emulator-based soil salt and water balance calculated at daily time steps. The method is demonstrated for the agriculture areas of coastal Bangladesh (˜20,000 km2). This shows that we can reproduce the dynamics of soil salinity under multiple land uses, including rice crops, combined shrimp and rice farming, as well as non-rice crops. The model also reproduced well the observed spatial soil salinity for the year 2009. Using this approach, we have projected the soil salinity for three different climate ensembles, including relative sea-level rise for the year 2050. Projected soil salinity changes are significantly smaller than other reported projections. The results suggest that inter-season weather variability is a key driver of salinization of agriculture soils at coastal Bangladesh.

Simulation of daily streamflow for nine river basins in eastern Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

Science.gov (United States)

Haj, Adel E.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Hutchinson, Kasey J.

2015-10-14

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for nine river basins in eastern Iowa that drain into the Mississippi River. The models are part of a suite of methods for estimating daily streamflow at ungaged sites. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed- parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration and validation periods used in each basin mostly were October 1, 2002, through September 30, 2012, but differed depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations.

Stressor Diversity: Introduction and Empirical Integration into the Daily Stress Model

Science.gov (United States)

Koffer, Rachel E.; Ram, Nilam; Conroy, David E.; Pincus, Aaron L.; Almeida, David M.

2016-01-01

The present study examined if and how stressor diversity, the extent to which one’s stressor events are spread across multiple types of stressors, contributes to daily affective well-being through the adult life span. Stressor diversity was examined as a unique predictor of daily affect and as a moderator of stressor exposure and stressor reactivity effects. Analyses span two independent studies of daily stress: the National Study of Daily Experiences with N=2,022 adults, aged 33–85, assessed over T=8 days, and the Intraindividual Study of Affect, Health, and Interpersonal Behavior with N=150 adults, aged 18–89, assessed over T=63 days. Across both studies, older age was associated with less stressor diversity. Additionally, multivariate multilevel models indicated higher stressor diversity was linked with better affective well-being. Age, however, was not a consistent moderator of such associations. The combination of low stressor diversity and high stressor exposure is discussed as an operationalization of chronic stressors, and this combination was associated with particularly high negative affect and low positive affect. We believe further work will benefit from including both the frequency and diversity of stressor experiences in analyses in order to better characterize individuals’ stressor experiences. PMID:27294713

Stressor diversity: Introduction and empirical integration into the daily stress model.

Science.gov (United States)

Koffer, Rachel E; Ram, Nilam; Conroy, David E; Pincus, Aaron L; Almeida, David M

2016-06-01

The present study examined whether and how stressor diversity, the extent to which stressor events are spread across multiple types of stressors, contributes to daily affective well-being through the adult life span. Stressor diversity was examined as a unique predictor of daily affect and as a moderator of stressor exposure and stressor reactivity effects. Analyses span 2 independent studies of daily stress: the National Study of Daily Experiences with N = 2,022 adults, aged 33 to 85 years, assessed over T = 8 days, and the Intraindividual Study of Affect, Health, and Interpersonal Behavior with N = 150 adults, aged 18 to 89 years, assessed over T = 63 days. Across both studies, older age was associated with less stressor diversity. Additionally, multivariate multilevel models indicated higher stressor diversity was linked with better affective well-being. Age, however, was not a consistent moderator of such associations. The combination of low stressor diversity and high stressor exposure is discussed as an operationalization of chronic stressors, and this combination was associated with particularly high negative affect and low positive affect. We believe further work will benefit from including both the frequency and diversity of stressor experiences in analyses in order to better characterize individuals' stressor experiences. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

The effects of conscientiousness on the appraisals of daily stressors.

Science.gov (United States)

Gartland, Nicola; O'Connor, Daryl B; Lawton, Rebecca

2012-02-01

Conscientiousness (C) is positively associated with health and longevity although the mechanisms underlying this relationship are not fully understood. Stress may play a role in explaining the C-longevity relationship. This study investigated whether C predicted the cognitive appraisals of daily stressors/hassles. Participants (N=102) completed measures of C and cognitive appraisal in relation to the most stressful hassle they had experienced in the last 7 days. Correlational analysis revealed that Total C, Order and Industriousness were positively correlated with primary appraisals, and Responsibility was positively correlated with secondary appraisals. The facets of C were then entered into hierarchical regression models, controlling for age and gender. This demonstrated that Order (β=0.27, paccounting for 15.8% of the variance. Responsibility significantly predicted secondary appraisals (β=0.44, paccounting for 16.3% of the variance. These findings indicate that higher Order and Industriousness are related to having a greater stake in daily stressors, whereas higher Responsibility is related to greater confidence in one's ability to deal with daily stressors. These results are the first demonstration that C is related to the appraisals of daily hassles and suggest that C may moderate the experience of stress in daily life. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Daily physical activity and its contribution to the health-related quality of life of ambulatory individuals with chronic stroke

OpenAIRE

Rand, Debbie; Eng, Janice J; Tang, Pei-Fang; Hung, Chihya; Jeng, Jiann-Shing

2010-01-01

Abstract Background Participation in daily physical activity (PA) post-stroke has not previously been investigated as a possible explanatory variable of health-related quality of life (HRQL). The aims were 1) to determine the contribution of daily PA to the HRQL of individuals with chronic stroke and 2) to assess the relationship between the functional ability of these individuals to the amount of daily PA. Methods The amount of daily PA of forty adults with chronic stroke (mean age 66.5 ± 9....

Daily affect variability and context-specific alcohol consumption.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohr, Cynthia D; Arpin, Sarah; McCabe, Cameron T

2015-11-01

Research explored the effects of variability in negative and positive affect on alcohol consumption, specifying daily fluctuation in affect as a critical form of emotion dysregulation. Using daily process methodology allows for a more objective calculation of affect variability relative to traditional self-reports. The present study models within-person negative and positive affect variabilities as predictors of context-specific consumption (i.e. solitary vs. social drinking), controlling for mean levels of affect. A community sample of moderate-to-heavy drinkers (n = 47; 49% women) from a US metropolitan area reported on affect and alcohol consumption thrice daily for 30 days via a handheld electronic interviewer. Within-person affect variability was calculated using daily standard deviations in positive and negative affect. Within person, greater negative and positive variabilities are related to greater daily solitary and social consumption. Across study days, mean levels of negative and positive affect variabilities related to greater social consumption between persons; yet, aggregated negative affect variability was related to less solitary consumption. Results affirm affect variability as a unique predictor of alcohol consumption, independent of mean affect levels. Yet, it is important to differentiate social context of consumption, as well as type of affect variability, particularly at the between-person level. These distinctions help clarify inconsistencies in the self-medication literature regarding associations between average levels of affect and consumption. Importantly, consistent within-person relationships for both variabilities support arguments that both negative and positive affect variabilities are detrimental and reflect an inability to regulate emotional experience. © 2015 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Generating daily weather data for ecosystem modelling in the Congo River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Petritsch, Richard; Pietsch, Stephan A.

2010-05-01

Daily weather data are an important constraint for diverse applications in ecosystem research. In particular, temperature and precipitation are the main drivers for forest ecosystem productivity. Mechanistic modelling theory heavily relies on daily values for minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, incident solar radiation and vapour pressure deficit. Although the number of climate measurement stations increased during the last centuries, there are still regions with limited climate data. For example, in the WMO database there are only 16 stations located in Gabon with daily weather measurements. Additionally, the available time series are heavily affected by measurement errors or missing values. In the WMO record for Gabon, on average every second day is missing. Monthly means are more robust and may be estimated over larger areas. Therefore, a good alternative is to interpolate monthly mean values using a sparse network of measurement stations, and based on these monthly data generate daily weather data with defined characteristics. The weather generator MarkSim was developed to produce climatological time series for crop modelling in the tropics. It provides daily values for maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and solar radiation. The monthly means can either be derived from the internal climate surfaces or prescribed as additional inputs. We compared the generated outputs observations from three climate stations in Gabon (Lastourville, Moanda and Mouilla) and found that maximum temperature and solar radiation were heavily overestimated during the long dry season. This is due to the internal dependency of the solar radiation estimates to precipitation. With no precipitation a cloudless sky is assumed and thus high incident solar radiation and a large diurnal temperature range. However, in reality it is cloudy in the Congo River Basin during the long dry season. Therefore, we applied a correction factor to solar radiation and temperature range

Forecasting daily patient volumes in the emergency department.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Spencer S; Thomas, Alun; Evans, R Scott; Welch, Shari J; Haug, Peter J; Snow, Gregory L

2008-02-01

Shifts in the supply of and demand for emergency department (ED) resources make the efficient allocation of ED resources increasingly important. Forecasting is a vital activity that guides decision-making in many areas of economic, industrial, and scientific planning, but has gained little traction in the health care industry. There are few studies that explore the use of forecasting methods to predict patient volumes in the ED. The goals of this study are to explore and evaluate the use of several statistical forecasting methods to predict daily ED patient volumes at three diverse hospital EDs and to compare the accuracy of these methods to the accuracy of a previously proposed forecasting method. Daily patient arrivals at three hospital EDs were collected for the period January 1, 2005, through March 31, 2007. The authors evaluated the use of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, time series regression, exponential smoothing, and artificial neural network models to forecast daily patient volumes at each facility. Forecasts were made for horizons ranging from 1 to 30 days in advance. The forecast accuracy achieved by the various forecasting methods was compared to the forecast accuracy achieved when using a benchmark forecasting method already available in the emergency medicine literature. All time series methods considered in this analysis provided improved in-sample model goodness of fit. However, post-sample analysis revealed that time series regression models that augment linear regression models by accounting for serial autocorrelation offered only small improvements in terms of post-sample forecast accuracy, relative to multiple linear regression models, while seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, exponential smoothing, and artificial neural network forecasting models did not provide consistently accurate forecasts of daily ED volumes. This study confirms the widely held belief that daily demand for ED services is characterized by

Daily spillover from family to work: A test of the work-home resources model.

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Danyang; Derks, Daantje; Bakker, Arnold B

2018-04-01

The present study examines a mediated moderation model of the day-level effects of family hassles and family-work spillover (affect and cognition) on the relationship between job resources and employees' flourishing at work. Based on the work-home resources model, the authors hypothesized that demands from one domain (family) induce repetitive thoughts or negative feelings about those problems, so that individuals are not able to function optimally and to make full use of contextual resources in the other domain (work). Multilevel analyses of 108 Chinese working parents' 366 daily surveys revealed that the relationship between morning job resources and afternoon flourishing was significantly positive when previous day family hassles were low; the relationship became nonsignificant when previous day family hassles were high. In addition, as predicted, daily rumination also attenuated the relationship between morning job resources and afternoon flourishing, whereas daily affect did not. Finally, the moderating effect of previous day family hassles was mediated by daily rumination. The findings contribute to spillover theories by revealing the roles of affective and cognitive spillover from family to work. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Dynamic Regression Intervention Modeling for the Malaysian Daily Load

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fadhilah Abdrazak

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Malaysia is a unique country due to having both fixed and moving holidays.  These moving holidays may overlap with other fixed holidays and therefore, increase the complexity of the load forecasting activities. The errors due to holidays’ effects in the load forecasting are known to be higher than other factors.  If these effects can be estimated and removed, the behavior of the series could be better viewed.  Thus, the aim of this paper is to improve the forecasting errors by using a dynamic regression model with intervention analysis.   Based on the linear transfer function method, a daily load model consists of either peak or average is developed.  The developed model outperformed the seasonal ARIMA model in estimating the fixed and moving holidays’ effects and achieved a smaller Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE in load forecast.

Basal metabolic rate in relation to body composition and daily energy expenditure in the field vole, Microtus agrestis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meerlo, P; Bolle, L; Visser, GH; Masman, D; Daan, S

1997-01-01

Basal metabolic rate in the field vole (Microtus agrestis) was studied in relation to body composition and daily energy expenditure in the field Daily energy expenditure was measured by means of doubly labelled water ((D2O)-O-18). In the same individuals, basal metabolic rate was subsequently

Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan; Hanel, Martin

2018-04-01

The study compares characteristics of observed sub-daily precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic with those simulated by Hadley Centre Regional Model version 3 (HadRM3) and Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model version 4 (RCA4) regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalyses and examines diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation and their dependence on intensity and surface temperature. The observed warm-season (May-September) maxima of short-duration (1, 2 and 3 h) amounts show one diurnal peak in the afternoon, which is simulated reasonably well by RCA4, although the peak occurs too early in the model. HadRM3 provides an unrealistic diurnal cycle with a nighttime peak and an afternoon minimum coinciding with the observed maximum for all three ensemble members, which suggests that convection is not captured realistically. Distorted relationships of the diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation to daily maximum temperature in HadRM3 further evidence that underlying physical mechanisms are misrepresented in this RCM. Goodness-of-fit tests indicate that generalised extreme value distribution is an applicable model for both observed and RCM-simulated precipitation maxima. However, the RCMs are not able to capture the range of the shape parameter estimates of distributions of short-duration precipitation maxima realistically, leading to either too many (nearly all for HadRM3) or too few (RCA4) grid boxes in which the shape parameter corresponds to a heavy tail. This means that the distributions of maxima of sub-daily amounts are distorted in the RCM-simulated data and do not match reality well. Therefore, projected changes of sub-daily precipitation extremes in climate change scenarios based on RCMs not resolving convection need to be interpreted with caution.

Daily sleep, weekly working hours, and risk of work-related injury: US National Health Interview Survey (2004-2008).

Science.gov (United States)

Lombardi, David A; Folkard, Simon; Willetts, Joanna L; Smith, Gordon S

2010-07-01

The impact on health and safety of the combination of chronic sleep deficits and extended working hours has received worldwide attention. Using the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), an in-person household survey using a multistage, stratified, clustered sample design representing the US civilian, non-institutionalized population, the authors estimated the effect of total daily self-reported sleep time and weekly working hours on the risk of a work-related injury. During the survey period 2004-2008, 177,576 persons (ages 18-74) sampled within households reported that they worked at a paid job the previous week and reported their total weekly work hours. A randomly selected adult in each household (n = 75,718) was asked to report his/her usual (average) total daily sleep hours the prior week; complete responses were obtained for 74,415 (98.3%) workers. Weighted annualized work-related injury rates were then estimated across a priori defined categories of both average total daily sleep hours and weekly working hours. To account for the complex sampling design, weighted multiple logistic regression was used to independently estimate the risk of a work-related injury for categories of usual daily sleep duration and weekly working hours, controlling for important covariates and potential confounders of age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, type of pay, industry, occupation (proxy for job risk), body mass index, and the interaction between sleep duration and work hours. Based on the inclusion criteria, there were an estimated 129,950,376 workers annually at risk and 3,634,446 work-related medically treated injury episodes (overall injury rate 2.80/100 workers). Unadjusted annualized injury rates/100 workers across weekly work hours were 2.03 (60 h). With regards to self-reported daily sleep time, the estimated annualized injury rates/100 workers were 7.89 (10 h). After controlling for weekly work hours, and aforementioned covariates, significant increases in risk/1

Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Predicting and Mapping Daily Pan Evaporation

Science.gov (United States)

Arunkumar, R.; Jothiprakash, V.; Sharma, Kirty

2017-09-01

In this study, Artificial Intelligence techniques such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Model Tree (MT) and Genetic Programming (GP) are used to develop daily pan evaporation time-series (TS) prediction and cause-effect (CE) mapping models. Ten years of observed daily meteorological data such as maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours, dew point temperature and pan evaporation are used for developing the models. For each technique, several models are developed by changing the number of inputs and other model parameters. The performance of each model is evaluated using standard statistical measures such as Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error, Normalized Mean Square Error and correlation coefficient (R). The results showed that daily TS-GP (4) model predicted better with a correlation coefficient of 0.959 than other TS models. Among various CE models, CE-ANN (6-10-1) resulted better than MT and GP models with a correlation coefficient of 0.881. Because of the complex non-linear inter-relationship among various meteorological variables, CE mapping models could not achieve the performance of TS models. From this study, it was found that GP performs better for recognizing single pattern (time series modelling), whereas ANN is better for modelling multiple patterns (cause-effect modelling) in the data.

Daily and 3-hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

Science.gov (United States)

Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; vanderWerf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.;

Modeling and forecasting foreign exchange daily closing prices with normal inverse Gaussian

Science.gov (United States)

Teneng, Dean

2013-09-01

We fit the normal inverse Gaussian(NIG) distribution to foreign exchange closing prices using the open software package R and select best models by Käärik and Umbleja (2011) proposed strategy. We observe that daily closing prices (12/04/2008 - 07/08/2012) of CHF/JPY, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, NZD/USD, QAR/CHF, QAR/EUR, SAR/CHF, SAR/EUR, TND/CHF and TND/EUR are excellent fits while EGP/EUR and EUR/GBP are good fits with a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test p-value of 0.062 and 0.08 respectively. It was impossible to estimate normal inverse Gaussian parameters (by maximum likelihood; computational problem) for JPY/CHF but CHF/JPY was an excellent fit. Thus, while the stochastic properties of an exchange rate can be completely modeled with a probability distribution in one direction, it may be impossible the other way around. We also demonstrate that foreign exchange closing prices can be forecasted with the normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) Lévy process, both in cases where the daily closing prices can and cannot be modeled by NIG distribution.

Multiple daily fractionation in radiotherapy: biological rationale and preliminary clinical experiences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arcangeli, G [Instituto Medico Scientifico, Rome (Italy). Dept. of Oncology; Mauro, F; Morelli, D; Nervi, C

1979-09-01

The biological bases of radiation dose fractionation are reviewed and discussed with special emphasis on reassortment. Experimental data on animal model systems are presented to clarify that reassortment has to be added to sublethal damage repair and reoxygenation in the rationale for an optimized radiotherapy course according to tumor cell kinetics. Clinical results on several human tumors treated with twice or thrice daily fractions are described. These results show that some clinically radioresistant tumors (especially if not characterized by a relatively long clinical doubling line) can be satisfactorily dealt with using multiple daily fractionation. Clinical observations indicate that a relatively high cumulative daily dose (200 + 150 + 150 rad) can be safely administered.

Relief of depression and pain improves daily functioning and quality of life in patients with major depressive disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Ching-Hua; Yen, Yung-Chieh; Chen, Ming-Chao; Chen, Cheng-Chung

2013-12-02

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of depression relief and pain relief on the improvement in daily functioning and quality of life (QOL) for depressed patients receiving a 6-week treatment of fluoxetine. A total of 131 acutely ill inpatients with major depressive disorder (MDD) were enrolled to receive 20mg of fluoxetine daily for 6 weeks. Depression severity, pain severity, daily functioning, and health-related QOL were assessed at baseline and again at week 6. Depression severity, pain severity, and daily functioning were assessed using the 17-item Hamilton Depression Rating Scale, the Short-Form 36 (SF-36) Body Pain Index, and the Work and Social Adjustment Scale. Health-related QOL was assessed by three primary domains of the SF-36, including social functioning, vitality, and general health perceptions. Pearson's correlation and structural equation modeling were used to examine relationships among the study variables. Five models were proposed. In model 1, depression relief alone improved daily functioning and QOL. In model 2, pain relief alone improved daily functioning and QOL. In model 3, depression relief, mediated by pain relief, improved daily functioning and QOL. In model 4, pain relief, mediated by depression relief, improved daily functioning and QOL. In model 5, both depression relief and pain relief improved daily functioning and QOL. One hundred and six patients completed all the measures at baseline and at week 6. Model 5 was the most fitted structural equation model (χ(2) = 8.62, df = 8, p = 0.376, GFI = 0.975, AGFI = 0.935, TLI = 0.992, CFI = 0.996, RMSEA = 0.027). Interventions which relieve depression and pain improve daily functioning and QOL among patients with MDD. The proposed model can provide quantitative estimates of improvement in treating patients with MDD. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modelling daily sediment yield from a meso-scale catchment, a case study in SW Poland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keesstra, S. D.; Schoorl, J.; Temme, A. J. A. M.

2009-01-01

For management purposes it is important to be able to assess the sediment yield of a catchment. however, at this moment models designed for estimating sediment yield are only capable to give either very detailed storm-based information or year averages. The storm-based models require input data that are not available for most catchment. However, models that estimate yearly averages, ignore a lot of other detailed information, like daily discharge and precipitation data. There are currently no models available that model sediment yield on the temporal scale of one day and the spatial scale of a meso-scale catchment, without making use of very detailed input data. To fill this scientific and management gap, landscape evolution model LAPSUS has been adapted to model sediment yield on a daily basis. This model has the water balance as a base. To allow calibration with the discharge at the outlet, a subsurface flow module has been added to the model. (Author) 12 refs.

Modelling daily sediment yield from a meso-scale catchment, a case study in SW Poland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keesstra, S. D.; Schoorl, J.; Temme, A. J. A. M.

2009-07-01

For management purposes it is important to be able to assess the sediment yield of a catchment. however, at this moment models designed for estimating sediment yield are only capable to give either very detailed storm-based information or year averages. The storm-based models require input data that are not available for most catchment. However, models that estimate yearly averages, ignore a lot of other detailed information, like daily discharge and precipitation data. There are currently no models available that model sediment yield on the temporal scale of one day and the spatial scale of a meso-scale catchment, without making use of very detailed input data. To fill this scientific and management gap, landscape evolution model LAPSUS has been adapted to model sediment yield on a daily basis. This model has the water balance as a base. To allow calibration with the discharge at the outlet, a subsurface flow module has been added to the model. (Author) 12 refs.

Examining the Effects of Video Modeling and Prompts to Teach Activities of Daily Living Skills.

Science.gov (United States)

Aldi, Catarina; Crigler, Alexandra; Kates-McElrath, Kelly; Long, Brian; Smith, Hillary; Rehak, Kim; Wilkinson, Lisa

2016-12-01

Video modeling has been shown to be effective in teaching a number of skills to learners diagnosed with autism spectrum disorders (ASD). In this study, we taught two young men diagnosed with ASD three different activities of daily living skills (ADLS) using point-of-view video modeling. Results indicated that both participants met criterion for all ADLS. Participants did not maintain mastery criterion at a 1-month follow-up, but did score above baseline at maintenance with and without video modeling. • Point-of-view video models may be an effective intervention to teach daily living skills. • Video modeling with handheld portable devices (Apple iPod or iPad) can be just as effective as video modeling with stationary viewing devices (television or computer). • The use of handheld portable devices (Apple iPod and iPad) makes video modeling accessible and possible in a wide variety of environments.

Simulation of daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

Science.gov (United States)

Christiansen, Daniel E.; Haj, Adel E.; Risley, John C.

2017-10-24

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa that drain into the Missouri River. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration periods for each basin varied depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations.A geographic information system tool was used to delineate each basin and estimate initial values for model parameters based on basin physical and geographical features. A U.S. Geological Survey automatic calibration tool that uses a shuffled complex evolution algorithm was used for initial calibration, and then manual modifications were made to parameter values to complete the calibration of each basin model. The main objective of the calibration was to match daily discharge values of simulated streamflow to measured daily discharge values. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was calibrated at 42 sites located in the 12 river basins in western Iowa.The accuracy of the simulated daily streamflow values at the 42 calibration sites varied by river and by site. The models were satisfactory at 36 of the sites based on statistical results. Unsatisfactory performance at the six other sites can be attributed to several factors: (1) low flow, no flow, and flashy flow conditions in headwater subbasins having a small drainage area; (2) poor representation of the groundwater and storage components of flow within a basin; (3) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and water use; and (4) limited availability and accuracy of meteorological input data. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

[The impact of Glivec related side effects on daily life in Chinese patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in the chronic phase].

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, L; Wang, H B; Huang, X J; Jiang, Q

2016-07-01

To explore the impact of Glivec related side effects on daily life in Chinese patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) in the chronic phase (CP). From May to November in 2014, anonymous questionnaires were distributed to adult CML patients who were receiving tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) treatment in China. The impact of TKI related side effects on daily life were assessed by the score of 1 (no impact) to 5 (high impact) from patient self- report. Data from 548 respondents in the CP on Glivec were collected. 303(55%) cases were male with the median age of 40 years (range, 18 to 88 years). 437 (80% ) cases started Glivec treatment within one year after diagnosis with a median treatment duration of 3 years (range, effects were edema (n=278, 51% ), fatigue (n=218, 40% ), gastrointestinal disorders (n=190, 35%), muscle cramps (n=118, 22%), skin color changes (n=118, 22%), weight gain (n=71, 13%), rash (n=60, 11%), hepatic function abnormality (n=55, 10%), and cytopenia (n=38, 7%). Among the 548 respondents, the mean score of Glivec-related side effects on daily life was 2.4±1.2. There was no negative impact of Glivec related side effects on daily life in 161(29%) respondents. 295 (54% ) and 92 (17% ) respondents reported slightly or moderately (2- 3 score) and significantly decreased (4-5 score) daily life, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that Glivec treatment duration effects including fatigue (OR=2.9, 95% CI 2.1-4.1;Pnegative effect on daily life. Daily life was impaired seriously in a minority of Chinese CML patients who received Glivec, especially in the first 4 years of treatment. Fatigue, edema, gastrointestinal disorders, rash and hepatic function abnormality were side effects associated with negative impact on patients' daily life.

Application of Markov chain model to daily maximum temperature for thermal comfort in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nordin, Muhamad Asyraf bin Che; Hassan, Husna

2015-01-01

The Markov chain’s first order principle has been widely used to model various meteorological fields, for prediction purposes. In this study, a 14-year (2000-2013) data of daily maximum temperatures in Bayan Lepas were used. Earlier studies showed that the outdoor thermal comfort range based on physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) index in Malaysia is less than 34°C, thus the data obtained were classified into two state: normal state (within thermal comfort range) and hot state (above thermal comfort range). The long-run results show the probability of daily temperature exceed TCR will be only 2.2%. On the other hand, the probability daily temperature within TCR will be 97.8%

Estimation of daily albedo on Tottori sand surface

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gu, S.; Otsuki, K.; Kamichika, M.

2001-01-01

Daily albedos of a bare sand surface were measured with a solarimeter (Eko MS-62) between 23 August and 30 November in 1997 at Tottori sand dune, Japan. These quickly decreased on rainy days, and recovered during dry spells (days between rainfalls). A strong exponential relationship was found between daily albedos and the number of dry days. The daily albedos on dry days also showed a direct relationship with daily transmissivities in the range less than 0.55. Two simple models were developed to estimate daily albedos for dry spell days on bare Tottori sand surface using routine meteorological data. Daily albedos were calculated using these two models, and compared with the measured daily albedos. For Model #1, the daily albedos were successfully predicted only using the number of dry spell days; the correlation coefficient between the estimated and measured albedo was 0.73, and the standard error was 1.2%. For Model #2, the number of dry spell days and transmissivity were considered in order to calculate the daily albedo on dry spell days; the correlation coefficient was 0.85, and the standard error was 0.9%. Estimated albedos were in good agreement with measured albedos. (author)

Forecasting daily meteorological time series using ARIMA and regression models

Science.gov (United States)

Murat, Małgorzata; Malinowska, Iwona; Gos, Magdalena; Krzyszczak, Jaromir

2018-04-01

The daily air temperature and precipitation time series recorded between January 1, 1980 and December 31, 2010 in four European sites (Jokioinen, Dikopshof, Lleida and Lublin) from different climatic zones were modeled and forecasted. In our forecasting we used the methods of the Box-Jenkins and Holt- Winters seasonal auto regressive integrated moving-average, the autoregressive integrated moving-average with external regressors in the form of Fourier terms and the time series regression, including trend and seasonality components methodology with R software. It was demonstrated that obtained models are able to capture the dynamics of the time series data and to produce sensible forecasts.

Modelling daily dissolved oxygen concentration using least square support vector machine, multivariate adaptive regression splines and M5 model tree

Science.gov (United States)

Heddam, Salim; Kisi, Ozgur

2018-04-01

In the present study, three types of artificial intelligence techniques, least square support vector machine (LSSVM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and M5 model tree (M5T) are applied for modeling daily dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration using several water quality variables as inputs. The DO concentration and water quality variables data from three stations operated by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) were used for developing the three models. The water quality data selected consisted of daily measured of water temperature (TE, °C), pH (std. unit), specific conductance (SC, μS/cm) and discharge (DI cfs), are used as inputs to the LSSVM, MARS and M5T models. The three models were applied for each station separately and compared to each other. According to the results obtained, it was found that: (i) the DO concentration could be successfully estimated using the three models and (ii) the best model among all others differs from one station to another.

Objectively measured daily physical activity related to aerobic fitness in young children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dencker, Magnus; Bugge, Anna; Hermansen, Bianca

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate by direct measurement the cross-sectional relationship between accelerometer-measured physical activity and peak oxygen uptake (VO(2peak): ml x min(-1) x kg(-1)), in a population-based cohort of young children, since such data are scarce. The study...... analyses indicated that the various physical activity variables explained between 2 and 8% of the variance in VO(2peak) in boys. In this population-based cohort, most daily activity variables were positively related to aerobic fitness in boys, whereas less clear relationships were observed in girls. Our...... finding that physical activity was only uniformly related to aerobic fitness in boys partly contradicts previous studies in older children and adolescents....

Methods and strategy for modeling daily global solar radiation with measured meteorological data - A case study in Nanchang station, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Guofeng; Liu, Yaolin; Wang, Tiejun

2007-01-01

Solar radiation is a primary driver for many physical, chemical and biological processes on the earth's surface, and complete and accurate solar radiation data at a specific region are quite indispensable to the solar energy related researches. This study, with Nanchang station, China, as a case study, aimed to calibrate existing models and develop new models for estimating missing global solar radiation data using commonly measured meteorological data and to propose a strategy for selecting the optimal models under different situations of available meteorological data. Using daily global radiation, sunshine hours, temperature, total precipitation and dew point data covering the years from 1994 to 2005, we calibrated or developed and evaluated seven existing models and two new models. Validation criteria included intercept, slope, coefficient of determination, mean bias error and root mean square error. The best result (R 2 = 0.93) was derived from Chen model 2, which uses sunshine hours and temperature as predictors. The Bahel model, which only uses sunshine hours, was almost as good, explaining 92% of the solar radiation variance. Temperature based models (Bristow and Campbell, Allen, Hargreaves and Chen 1 models) provided less accurate results, of which the best one (R 2 = 0.69) is the Bristow and Campbell model. The temperature based models were improved by adding other variables (daily mean total precipitation and mean dew point). Two such models could explain 77% (Wu model 1) and 80% (Wu model 2) of the solar radiation variance. We, thus, propose a strategy for selecting an optimal method for calculating missing daily values of global solar radiation: (1) when sunshine hour and temperature data are available, use Chen model 2; (2) when only sunshine hour data are available, use Bahel model; (3) when temperature, total precipitation and dew point data are available but not sunshine hours, use Wu model 2; (4) when only temperature and total precipitation are

LiveOcean: A Daily Forecast Model of Ocean Acidification for Shellfish Growers

Science.gov (United States)

MacCready, P.; Siedlecki, S. A.; McCabe, R. M.

2016-12-01

The coastal estuaries of the NE Pacific host a highly productive shellfish industry, but in the past decade they have suffered from many years in which no natural set of oysters occurred. It appears that coastal waters with low Aragonite saturation state may be the cause. This "acidified" water is the result of (i) upwelling of NE Pacific water from near the shelf break that is already low in pH, and (ii) further acidification of that water by productivity and remineralization on the shelf, and (iii) increasing atmospheric CO2. As part of a coordinated research response to this issue, we have developed the LiveOcean modeling system, which creates daily three-day forecasts of circulation and biogeochemical properties in Oregon-Washington-British Columbia coastal and estuarine waters. The system includes realistic tides, atmospheric forcing (from a regional WRF model), ocean boundary conditions (from HYCOM), and rivers (from USGS and Environment Canada). The model is also used for Harmful Algal Bloom prediction. There has been extensive validation of hindcast runs for currents and hydrography, and more limited validation of biogeochemical variables. Model results are pushed daily to the cloud, and made available to the public through the NANOOS Visualization System (NVS). NVS also includes automated model-data comparisons with real-time NDBC and OOI moorings. Future work will focus on optimizing the utility of this system for regional shellfish growers.

Improved daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grimm, J.W.; Lynch, J.A.

2005-01-01

Daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models were developed for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (USA) using a linear least-squares regression approach and precipitation chemistry data from 29 National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) sites. Only weekly samples that comprised a single precipitation event were used in model development. The most significant variables in both ammonium and nitrate models included: precipitation volume, the number of days since the last event, a measure of seasonality, latitude, and the proportion of land within 8 km covered by forest or devoted to industry and transportation. Additional variables included in the nitrate model were the proportion of land within 0.8 km covered by water and/or forest. Local and regional ammonia and nitrogen oxide emissions were not as well correlated as land cover. Modeled concentrations compared very well with event chemistry data collected at six NADP/AirMoN sites within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Wet deposition estimates were also consistent with observed deposition at selected sites. Accurately describing the spatial distribution of precipitation volume throughout the watershed is important in providing critical estimates of wet-fall deposition of ammonium and nitrate. - A linear least-squares regression approach was used to develop daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Coping with Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Engaging with Information to Inform Health-Related Decision Making in Daily Life.

Science.gov (United States)

Restall, Gayle J; Simms, Alexandria M; Walker, John R; Haviva, Clove; Graff, Lesley A; Sexton, Kathryn A; Miller, Norine; Targownik, Laura E; Bernstein, Charles N

2017-08-01

People with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) require disease and lifestyle information to make health-related decisions in their daily lives. Derived from a larger qualitative study of the lived experiences of people with IBD, we report on findings that explored how people with IBD engage with health-related information in their daily lives. Participants were recruited primarily from the Manitoba IBD Cohort Study. We used purposive sampling to select people with a breadth of characteristics and experiences. Individual interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Data were analyzed using inductive qualitative methods consistent with a phenomenological approach. Forty-five people with IBD participated; 51% were women. Findings highlighted the temporal and contextual influences on engagement with health-related information. Temporal influences were described as the changing need for health-related information over time. Participants identified 6 contextual factors influencing engagement with information to make health decisions: (1) emotional and attitudinal responses, (2) perceived benefits and risks, (3) trust in the source of the information, (4) knowledge and skills to access and use information, (5) availability of evidence to support decisions, and (6) social and economic environments. Findings illustrate the changing needs for health-related information over the course of IBD, and with evolving health and life circumstances. Practitioners can be responsive to information needs of people with IBD by having high-quality information available at the right time in a variety of formats and by supporting the incorporation of information in daily life.

Jealousy in adolescents' daily lives: How does it relate to interpersonal context and well-being?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lennarz, H.K.; Lichtwarck-Aschoff, A.; Finkenauer, C.; Granic, I.

2017-01-01

Past studies have shown that jealousy peaks in adolescence. However, little is known about how and when adolescents experience jealousy in their daily lives. The current study aimed to examine the relation between state jealousy, the more general propensity to feel jealous, the interpersonal

Estimating wheat and maize daily evapotranspiration using artificial neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Abrishami, Nazanin; Sepaskhah, Ali Reza; Shahrokhnia, Mohammad Hossein

2018-02-01

In this research, artificial neural network (ANN) is used for estimating wheat and maize daily standard evapotranspiration. Ten ANN models with different structures were designed for each crop. Daily climatic data [maximum temperature (T max), minimum temperature (T min), average temperature (T ave), maximum relative humidity (RHmax), minimum relative humidity (RHmin), average relative humidity (RHave), wind speed (U 2), sunshine hours (n), net radiation (Rn)], leaf area index (LAI), and plant height (h) were used as inputs. For five structures of ten, the evapotranspiration (ETC) values calculated by ETC = ET0 × K C equation (ET0 from Penman-Monteith equation and K C from FAO-56, ANNC) were used as outputs, and for the other five structures, the ETC values measured by weighing lysimeter (ANNM) were used as outputs. In all structures, a feed forward multiple-layer network with one or two hidden layers and sigmoid transfer function and BR or LM training algorithm was used. Favorite network was selected based on various statistical criteria. The results showed the suitable capability and acceptable accuracy of ANNs, particularly those having two hidden layers in their structure in estimating the daily evapotranspiration. Best model for estimation of maize daily evapotranspiration is «M»ANN1 C (8-4-2-1), with T max, T min, RHmax, RHmin, U 2, n, LAI, and h as input data and LM training rule and its statistical parameters (NRMSE, d, and R2) are 0.178, 0.980, and 0.982, respectively. Best model for estimation of wheat daily evapotranspiration is «W»ANN5 C (5-2-3-1), with T max, T min, Rn, LAI, and h as input data and LM training rule, its statistical parameters (NRMSE, d, and R 2) are 0.108, 0.987, and 0.981 respectively. In addition, if the calculated ETC used as the output of the network for both wheat and maize, higher accurate estimation was obtained. Therefore, ANN is suitable method for estimating evapotranspiration of wheat and maize.

Exercise and sleep predict personal resources in employees' daily lives.

Science.gov (United States)

Nägel, Inga J; Sonnentag, Sabine

2013-11-01

The present study investigates the interaction of exercise and sleep on state-like personal resources in employees' daily lives. Further, the study examines the association between state-like personal resources and emotional exhaustion. We conducted a diary study over five consecutive working days (total of 443 days) with 144 employees who answered daily online surveys after work and before bedtime. Multilevel modeling showed that exercise after work was positively related to the next day's personal resources when sleep duration during the night time was longer compared to other nights. Furthermore, personal resources positively related to lower emotional exhaustion after work on the next day. This study demonstrates that exercise and sleep may help to renew personal resources. Results stress the importance of balancing exercise and sleep in daily life. © 2013 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

Self-critical perfectionism, daily stress, and disclosure of daily emotional events.

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, Clarissa M E; Rice, Kenneth G

2015-10-01

Although disclosure of stressful events can alleviate distress, self-critical perfectionism may pose an especially strong impediment to disclosure during stress, likely contributing to poorer psychological well-being. In the current study, after completing a measure of self-critical perfectionism (the Discrepancy subscale of the Almost Perfect Scale--Revised; Slaney, Rice, Mobley, Trippi, & Ashby, 2001), 396 undergraduates completed measures of stress and disclosure at the end of each day for 1 week. Consistent with hypotheses and previous research, multilevel modeling results indicated significant intraindividual coupling of daily stress and daily disclosure where disclosure was more likely when experiencing high stress than low stress. As hypothesized, Discrepancy moderated the relationship between daily stress and daily disclosure. Individuals higher in self-critical perfectionism (Discrepancy) were less likely to engage in disclosure under high stress, when disclosure is often most beneficial, than those with lower Discrepancy scores. These results have implications for understanding the role of stress and coping in the daily lives of self-critical perfectionists. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Determination of Semivariogram Models to Krige Hourly and Daily Solar Irradiance in Western Nebraska(.

Science.gov (United States)

Merino, G. G.; Jones, D.; Stooksbury, D. E.; Hubbard, K. G.

2001-06-01

In this paper, linear and spherical semivariogram models were determined for use in kriging hourly and daily solar irradiation for every season of the year. The data used to generate the models were from 18 weather stations in western Nebraska. The models generated were tested using cross validation. The performance of the spherical and linear semivariogram models were compared with each other and also with the semivariogram models based on the best fit to the sample semivariogram of a particular day or hour. There were no significant differences in the performance of the three models. This result and the comparable errors produced by the models in kriging indicated that the linear and spherical models could be used to perform kriging at any hour and day of the year without deriving an individual semivariogram model for that day or hour.The seasonal mean absolute errors associated with kriging, within the network, when using the spherical or the linear semivariograms models were between 10% and 13% of the mean irradiation for daily irradiation and between 12% and 20% for hourly irradiation. These errors represent an improvement of 1%-2% when compared with replacing data at a given site with the data of the nearest weather station.

Daily and Hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

Science.gov (United States)

Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.;

The daily hour forecasting of the electrical energy production from renewable energy sources – a required condition for the operation of the new energy market model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalpachka, Gergana; Kalpachki, Georgi

2011-01-01

The report presented the new energy market model in Bulgaria and the main attention is directed to a daily hour forecasting of the electrical energy production from renewable energy sources. The need of development of a methodology and the development of the most precise methods for predicting is reviewed and some of the used methods at the moment are presented. An analysis of the problems related to the daily hour forecasting is done using data from the producers of electrical energy from renewable energy sources in the territory of western Bulgaria. Keywords: Renewable energy sources, daily hour forecasting, electrical energy

Daily Autonomy Support and Sexual Identity Disclosure Predicts Daily Mental and Physical Health Outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Legate, Nicole; Ryan, Richard M; Rogge, Ronald D

2017-06-01

Using a daily diary methodology, we examined how social environments support or fail to support sexual identity disclosure, and associated mental and physical health outcomes. Results showed that variability in disclosure across the diary period related to greater psychological well-being and fewer physical symptoms, suggesting potential adaptive benefits to selectively disclosing. A multilevel path model indicated that perceiving autonomy support in conversations predicted more disclosure, which in turn predicted more need satisfaction, greater well-being, and fewer physical symptoms that day. Finally, mediation analyses revealed that disclosure and need satisfaction explained why perceiving autonomy support in a conversation predicted greater well-being and fewer physical symptoms. That is, perceiving autonomy support in conversations indirectly predicted greater wellness through sexual orientation disclosure, along with feeling authentic and connected in daily interactions with others. Discussion highlights the role of supportive social contexts and everyday opportunities to disclose in affecting sexual minority mental and physical health.

The perfectionism model of binge eating: testing unique contributions, mediating mechanisms, and cross-cultural similarities using a daily diary methodology.

Science.gov (United States)

Sherry, Simon B; Sabourin, Brigitte C; Hall, Peter A; Hewitt, Paul L; Flett, Gordon L; Gralnick, Tara M

2014-12-01

The perfectionism model of binge eating (PMOBE) is an integrative model explaining the link between perfectionism and binge eating. This model proposes socially prescribed perfectionism confers risk for binge eating by generating exposure to 4 putative binge triggers: interpersonal discrepancies, low interpersonal esteem, depressive affect, and dietary restraint. The present study addresses important gaps in knowledge by testing if these 4 binge triggers uniquely predict changes in binge eating on a daily basis and if daily variations in each binge trigger mediate the link between socially prescribed perfectionism and daily binge eating. Analyses also tested if proposed mediational models generalized across Asian and European Canadians. The PMOBE was tested in 566 undergraduate women using a 7-day daily diary methodology. Depressive affect predicted binge eating, whereas anxious affect did not. Each binge trigger uniquely contributed to binge eating on a daily basis. All binge triggers except for dietary restraint mediated the relationship between socially prescribed perfectionism and change in daily binge eating. Results suggested cross-cultural similarities, with the PMOBE applying to both Asian and European Canadian women. The present study advances understanding of the personality traits and the contextual conditions accompanying binge eating and provides an important step toward improving treatments for people suffering from eating binges and associated negative consequences.

Interrelationship among the health-related and subjective quality of life, daily life activities, instrumental activities of daily living of community-dwelling elderly females in orthopedic outpatients.

Science.gov (United States)

Takemasa, Seiichi; Nakagoshi, Ryoma; Uesugi, Masayuki; Inoue, Yuri; Gotou, Makoto; Naruse, Susumu; Nanba, Yoshihumi

2017-05-01

[Purpose] This study aimed to examine the health-related and subjective quality of life of community-dwelling elderly females in orthopedic outpatients, and also examined how such quality of life correlate with their daily life activities and instrumental activities of daily living. [Subjects and Methods] Subjects were 27 community-dwelling elderly females in orthopedic outpatients (mean age: 76.3 ± 7.4 years). Their health-related quality of life and subjective quality of life, life-space assessment, frenchay activities index were researched. [Results] For the relationships between the total subjective quality of life scores and health-related quality of life scores, significant positive correlations were observed for body pain, general health, vitality, social functions and mental health. The correlations were not statistically significant between the subjective quality of life scores and the life-space assessment and frenchay activities index scores. The correlations were statistically significant between some health-related quality of life scores and the life-space assessment and frenchay activities index scores. [Conclusion] The results suggest that supporting community-dwelling elderly females in orthopedic outpatients to improve their sense of physical and mental well-being, and prevent and reduce their depression and physical pain, is required in order to improve their QOL.

Socio-demographic and lifestyle-related characteristics associated with self-reported any, daily and occasional smoking during pregnancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Baron, Ruth; Manniën, Judith; de Jonge, Ank; Heymans, Martijn W; Klomp, Trudy; Hutton, Eileen K; Brug, Johannes

2013-01-01

Smoking during pregnancy is a risk factor for various adverse birth outcomes. In order to develop effective interventions, insight is needed into the characteristics associated with pregnant women who smoke. Unknown is whether these characteristics differ for women who smoke daily and women who smoke occasionally. Our study sample, drawn from the DELIVER study (Sept 2009-March 2011), consisted of 6107 pregnant women in primary care in the Netherlands who were up to 34 weeks pregnant. The associations of thirteen socio-demographic or lifestyle-related characteristics with 'any smoking', 'daily smoking' and 'occasional smoking' during pregnancy were tested using multiple binary logistic regression with general estimating equations (GEE). Characteristics most strongly associated with any smoking were low education (OR 10.3; 95% confidence interval (CI) 7.0-15.4), being of Turkish ethnicity (OR 3.9; 95%CI 2.3-6.7) and having no partner (OR 3.7; 95%CI 2.3-6.0). Women of Dutch ethnicity were three times more likely to smoke than those from Dutch-speaking Caribbean countries and non-religious women were much more likely to smoke than religious women. Low education was markedly more strongly associated with daily smoking than with occasional smoking (OR 20.3; 95%CI 13.2-31.3 versus OR 6.0; 95%CI 3.4-10.5). Daily smokers were more likely to be associated with other unfavorable lifestyle-related characteristics, such as not taking folic acid, being underweight, and having had an unplanned pregnancy. There is still much potential for health gain with respect to smoking during pregnancy in the Netherlands. Daily and occasional smokers appear to differ in characteristics, and therefore possibly require different interventions.

Daily Self-Disclosure and Sleep in Couples

Science.gov (United States)

Kane, Heidi S.; Slatcher, Richard B.; Reynolds, Bridget M.; Repetti, Rena L.; Robles, Theodore F.

2014-01-01

Objective An emerging literature provides evidence for the association between romantic relationship quality and sleep, an important factor in health and well-being. However, we still know very little about the specific relationship processes that affect sleep behavior. Therefore, the goal of this study was to examine how self-disclosure, an important relational process linked to intimacy, relationship satisfaction and health, is associated with sleep behavior. Method As part of a larger study of family processes, wives (n=46) and husbands (n=38) from 46 cohabiting families completed 56 days of daily diaries. Spouses completed evening diaries assessing daily self-disclosure, relationship satisfaction, and mood and morning diaries assessing the prior night's sleep. Multilevel modeling was used to explore the effects of both daily variation in and average levels across the 56 days of self-disclosure on sleep. Results Daily variation in self-disclosure predicted sleep outcomes for wives, but not for husbands. On days when wives self-disclosed more to their spouses than their average level, their subjective sleep quality and sleep efficiency that night improved. Furthermore, daily self-disclosure buffered the negative effect of daily negative mood on sleep latency for wives, but not husbands. In contrast, higher average levels of self-disclosure predicted less waking during the night for husbands, but not for wives. Conclusion The association between self-disclosure and sleep is one mechanism by which daily relationship functioning may influence health and well-being. Gender may play a role in how self-disclosure is associated with sleep. PMID:25068453

Automatic Power Control for Daily Load-following Operation using Model Predictive Control Method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yu, Keuk Jong; Kim, Han Gon [KH, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2009-10-15

Under the circumstances that nuclear power occupies more than 50%, nuclear power plants are required to be operated on load-following operation in order to make the effective management of electric grid system and enhanced responsiveness to rapid changes in power demand. Conventional reactors such as the OPR1000 and APR1400 have a regulating system that controls the average temperature of the reactor core relation to the reference temperature. This conventional method has the advantages of proven technology and ease of implementation. However, this method is unsuitable for controlling the axial power shape, particularly the load following operation. Accordingly, this paper reports on the development of a model predictive control method which is able to control the reactor power and the axial shape index. The purpose of this study is to analyze the behavior of nuclear reactor power and the axial power shape by using a model predictive control method when the power is increased and decreased for a daily load following operation. The study confirms that deviations in the axial shape index (ASI) are within the operating limit.

Monitoring daily and sub-daily variations in crustal strain with seismic arrays

Science.gov (United States)

Mao, S.; Campillo, M.; van der Hilst, R. D.; Brenguier, F.; Hillers, G.

2017-12-01

We demonstrate that we can monitor deformation of the shallow crust (with hourly temporal resolution) directly with seismic waves, by measuring relative seismic wave speed changes (dv/v) due to relatively known periodical forcing (tides and changes in atmospheric temperature) at Piton de la Fournaise Volcano (PdF), La Réunion. We use ambient seismic noise recorded (for one month) at VolcArray, an experiment with three arrays of 49 vertical-component geophones deployed on a 7x7 grid of approximately 80 m spacing. Through noise-based coda wave interferometry we infer for each array the average relative changes in propagation speed of seismic waves (dv/v) as a function of time, which relate to temporal changes in medium properties within 100m depth. The variations in dv/v ( 0.05%) on time-scales longer than a day are best explained by effects of precipitation on pore pressure. In contrast, the (weaker) daily and sub-daily fluctuations of dv/v ( 0.01%) are likely to be caused by tidal and thermal effects. We verify that the inferred variations of dv/v are unrelated to spatiotemporal changes of noise wavefields. We further compare the power spectrum of dv/v with spectra of simulated tide-induced volumetric strain, temperature records, very broadband (VBB) seismograms, and borehole tilt records. In all five types of data, dominant peaks are found at around diurnal, semi-diurnal, and ter-diurnal frequencies. A comparison of phase and spectra of the data suggests that the tidal and thermal effects on dv/v are of similar magnitude but vary with frequency. Theoretical modeling of tide- and temperature-induced strain in different frequency bands agrees with the relative magnitude of the two effects on dv/v from passive monitoring.

Daily self-disclosure and sleep in couples.

Science.gov (United States)

Kane, Heidi S; Slatcher, Richard B; Reynolds, Bridget M; Repetti, Rena L; Robles, Theodore F

2014-08-01

An emerging literature provides evidence for the association between romantic relationship quality and sleep, an important factor in health and well-being. However, we still know very little about the specific relationship processes that affect sleep behavior. Therefore, the goal of this study was to examine how self-disclosure, an important relational process linked to intimacy, relationship satisfaction, and health, is associated with sleep behavior. As part of a larger study of family processes, wives (n = 46) and husbands (n = 38) from 46 cohabiting families completed 56 days of daily diaries. Spouses completed evening diaries assessing daily self-disclosure, relationship satisfaction, and mood and morning diaries assessing the prior night's sleep. Multilevel modeling was used to explore the effects of both daily variation in and average levels across the 56 days of self-disclosure on sleep. Daily variation in self-disclosure predicted sleep outcomes for wives, but not for husbands. On days when wives self-disclosed more to their spouses than their average level, their subjective sleep quality and sleep efficiency that night improved. Furthermore, daily self-disclosure buffered the effect of high negative mood on sleep latency for wives, but not husbands. In contrast, higher average levels of self-disclosure predicted less waking during the night for husbands, but not for wives. The association between self-disclosure and sleep is one mechanism by which daily relationship functioning may influence health and well-being. Gender may play a role in how self-disclosure is associated with sleep.

A Novel Hybrid Data-Driven Model for Daily Land Surface Temperature Forecasting Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xike Zhang

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Daily land surface temperature (LST forecasting is of great significance for application in climate-related, agricultural, eco-environmental, or industrial studies. Hybrid data-driven prediction models using Ensemble Empirical Mode Composition (EEMD coupled with Machine Learning (ML algorithms are useful for achieving these purposes because they can reduce the difficulty of modeling, require less history data, are easy to develop, and are less complex than physical models. In this article, a computationally simple, less data-intensive, fast and efficient novel hybrid data-driven model called the EEMD Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM neural network, namely EEMD-LSTM, is proposed to reduce the difficulty of modeling and to improve prediction accuracy. The daily LST data series from the Mapoling and Zhijaing stations in the Dongting Lake basin, central south China, from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2016 is used as a case study. The EEMD is firstly employed to decompose the original daily LST data series into many Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs and a single residue item. Then, the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF is used to obtain the number of input data sample points for LSTM models. Next, the LSTM models are constructed to predict the decompositions. All the predicted results of the decompositions are aggregated as the final daily LST. Finally, the prediction performance of the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is assessed in terms of the Mean Square Error (MSE, Mean Absolute Error (MAE, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE, Pearson Correlation Coefficient (CC and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE. To validate the hybrid data-driven model, the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is compared with the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN, LSTM and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD coupled with RNN, EMD-LSTM and EEMD-RNN models, and their comparison results demonstrate that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model performs better than the other

A Novel Hybrid Data-Driven Model for Daily Land Surface Temperature Forecasting Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xike; Zhang, Qiuwen; Zhang, Gui; Nie, Zhiping; Gui, Zifan; Que, Huafei

2018-05-21

Daily land surface temperature (LST) forecasting is of great significance for application in climate-related, agricultural, eco-environmental, or industrial studies. Hybrid data-driven prediction models using Ensemble Empirical Mode Composition (EEMD) coupled with Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are useful for achieving these purposes because they can reduce the difficulty of modeling, require less history data, are easy to develop, and are less complex than physical models. In this article, a computationally simple, less data-intensive, fast and efficient novel hybrid data-driven model called the EEMD Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, namely EEMD-LSTM, is proposed to reduce the difficulty of modeling and to improve prediction accuracy. The daily LST data series from the Mapoling and Zhijaing stations in the Dongting Lake basin, central south China, from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2016 is used as a case study. The EEMD is firstly employed to decompose the original daily LST data series into many Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) and a single residue item. Then, the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) is used to obtain the number of input data sample points for LSTM models. Next, the LSTM models are constructed to predict the decompositions. All the predicted results of the decompositions are aggregated as the final daily LST. Finally, the prediction performance of the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is assessed in terms of the Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Pearson Correlation Coefficient (CC) and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE). To validate the hybrid data-driven model, the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is compared with the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), LSTM and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) coupled with RNN, EMD-LSTM and EEMD-RNN models, and their comparison results demonstrate that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model performs better than the other five

Simple model for daily evaporation from fallow tilled soil under spring conditions in a temperate climate.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boesten, J.J.T.I.; Stroosnijder, L.

1986-01-01

A simple parametric model is presented to estimate daily evaporation from fallow tilled soil under spring conditions in a temperate climate. In this model, cumulative actual evaporation during a drying cycle is directly proportional to the square root of cumulative potential evaporation. The model

Socio-demographic and lifestyle-related characteristics associated with self-reported any, daily and occasional smoking during pregnancy.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruth Baron

Full Text Available Smoking during pregnancy is a risk factor for various adverse birth outcomes. In order to develop effective interventions, insight is needed into the characteristics associated with pregnant women who smoke. Unknown is whether these characteristics differ for women who smoke daily and women who smoke occasionally. Our study sample, drawn from the DELIVER study (Sept 2009-March 2011, consisted of 6107 pregnant women in primary care in the Netherlands who were up to 34 weeks pregnant. The associations of thirteen socio-demographic or lifestyle-related characteristics with 'any smoking', 'daily smoking' and 'occasional smoking' during pregnancy were tested using multiple binary logistic regression with general estimating equations (GEE. Characteristics most strongly associated with any smoking were low education (OR 10.3; 95% confidence interval (CI 7.0-15.4, being of Turkish ethnicity (OR 3.9; 95%CI 2.3-6.7 and having no partner (OR 3.7; 95%CI 2.3-6.0. Women of Dutch ethnicity were three times more likely to smoke than those from Dutch-speaking Caribbean countries and non-religious women were much more likely to smoke than religious women. Low education was markedly more strongly associated with daily smoking than with occasional smoking (OR 20.3; 95%CI 13.2-31.3 versus OR 6.0; 95%CI 3.4-10.5. Daily smokers were more likely to be associated with other unfavorable lifestyle-related characteristics, such as not taking folic acid, being underweight, and having had an unplanned pregnancy. There is still much potential for health gain with respect to smoking during pregnancy in the Netherlands. Daily and occasional smokers appear to differ in characteristics, and therefore possibly require different interventions.

Particulate air pollution and daily mortality in Detroit.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, J

1991-12-01

Particulate air pollution has been associated with increased mortality during episodes of high pollution concentrations. The relationship at lower concentrations has been more controversial, as has the relative role of particles and sulfur dioxide. Replication has been difficult because suspended particle concentrations are usually measured only every sixth day in the U.S. This study used concurrent measurements of total suspended particulates (TSP) and airport visibility from every sixth day sampling for 10 years to fit a predictive model for TSP. Predicted daily TSP concentrations were then correlated with daily mortality counts in Poisson regression models controlling for season, weather, time trends, overdispersion, and serial correlation. A significant correlation (P less than 0.0001) was found between predicted TSP and daily mortality. This correlation was independent of sulfur dioxide, but not vice versa. The magnitude of the effect was very similar to results recently reported from Steubenville, Ohio (using actual TSP measurements), with each 100 micrograms/m3 increase in TSP resulting in a 6% increase in mortality. Graphical analysis indicated a dose-response relationship with no evidence of a threshold down to concentrations below half of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for particulate matter.

Relationships Among Nightly Sleep Quality, Daily Stress, and Daily Affect.

Science.gov (United States)

Blaxton, Jessica M; Bergeman, Cindy S; Whitehead, Brenda R; Braun, Marcia E; Payne, Jessic D

2017-05-01

We explored the prospective, microlevel relationship between nightly sleep quality (SQ) and the subsequent day's stress on positive (PA) and negative affect (NA) as well as the moderating relationships between nightly SQ, subsequent stress, and subsequent PA on NA. We investigated whether age moderated these relationships. We collected 56 days of sleep, stress, and affect data using daily diary questionnaires (N = 552). We used multilevel modeling to assess relationships at the between- and within-person levels. Daily increases in SQ and decreases in stress interacted to predict higher daily PA and lower daily NA. Better SQ in older adults enhanced the benefits of PA on the stress-NA relationship more during times of low stress, whereas better sleep in younger adults enhanced the benefits of PA more during times of high stress. Between-person effects were stronger predictors of well-being outcomes than within-person variability. The combination of good SQ and higher PA buffered the impact of stress on NA. The moderating impact of age suggests that sleep and stress play different roles across adulthood. Targeting intervention and prevention strategies to improve SQ and enhance PA could disrupt the detrimental relationship between daily stress and NA. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A new simple parameterization of daily clear-sky global solar radiation including horizon effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez, Gabriel; Javier Batlles, F.; Tovar-Pescador, Joaquin

2007-01-01

Estimation of clear-sky global solar radiation is usually an important previous stage for calculating global solar radiation under all sky conditions. This is, for instance, a common procedure to derive incoming solar radiation from remote sensing or by using digital elevation models. In this work, we present a new model to calculate daily values of clear-sky global solar irradiation. The main goal is the simple parameterization in terms of atmospheric temperature and relative humidity, Angstroem's turbidity coefficient, ground albedo and site elevation, including a factor to take into account horizon obstructions. This allows us to obtain estimates even though a free horizon is not present as is the case of mountainous locations. Comparisons of calculated daily values with measured data show that this model is able to provide a good level of accurate estimates using either daily or mean monthly values of the input parameters. This new model has also been shown to improve daily estimates against those obtained using the clear-sky model from the European Solar Radiation Atlas and other accurate parameterized daily irradiation models. The introduction of Angstroem's turbidity coefficient and ground albedo should allow us to use the increasing worldwide aerosol information available and to consider those sites affected by snow covers in an easy and fast way. In addition, the proposed model is intended to be a useful tool to select clear-sky conditions

Refinement of the daily precipitation simulated by the CMIP5 models over the north of the Northeast of Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gyrlene Aparecida Mendes da Silva

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The ability of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN and the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR in reproducing the area-average observed daily precipitation during the rainy season (Feb-Mar-Apr over the north of the Northeast of Brazil (NEB is examined. For the present climate of Dec-Jan-Feb from 1963 to 2003 period these statistical models are developed and validated using the observed daily precipitation and simulated from the historical outputs of 4 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5. The simulations from all the models during DJF and FMA seasons show an anomalous intensification of the ITCZ and southward displacement in comparison with the climatology. Correlations of 0.54, 0.66 and 0.66 are found between the simulated daily precipitation of the CCSM4, GFDL_ESM2M and MIROC_ESM models during DJF season and the observed values during FMA season. Only the CCSM4 model displays a slightly reasonable agreement with the observations. A comparison between the statistical downscaling using the nonlinear (ANN and linear model (MLR to identify the one most suitable for the analysis of daily precipitation was made. The ANN technique provides more ability to predict the present climate when compared to MLR technique. Based on this result, we examined the accuracy of the ANN model in project the changes for the future climate period from 2055 to 2095 over the same study region. For instance, a comparison between the daily precipitation changes projected indirectly from the ANN during Feb-Mar-Apr with those projected directly from the CMIP5 models forced by RCP 8.5 scenario is made. The results suggest that ANN model weights the CMIP5 projections according to the each model ability in simulating the present climate (and its variability. In others, the ANN model is a potentially promising approach to use as a complementary tool to improvement of the seasonal numerical simulations.

Perceived motor problems in daily life: Focus group interviews with people with Noonan syndrome and their relatives.

Science.gov (United States)

Croonen, Ellen A; Harmsen, Mirjam; Van der Burgt, Ineke; Draaisma, Jos M; Noordam, Kees; Essink, Marlou; Nijhuis-van der Sanden, Maria W G

2016-09-01

Studies from a patient perspective on motor performance problems in Noonan syndrome in daily life are lacking. The aims of this study were to provide insight into the motor performance problems that people with Noonan syndrome and/or their relatives experienced, the major consequences they suffered, the benefits of interventions they experienced, and the experiences with healthcare professionals they mentioned. We interviewed 10 adults with Noonan syndrome (two were joined by their parent), and 23 mothers (five of whom had Noonan syndrome), nine fathers (one of whom had Noonan syndrome) and one cousin who reported on 28 children with Noonan syndrome. People with Noonan syndrome reported particular problems related to pain, decreased muscle strength, fatigue, and clumsiness, which had an evident impact on functioning in daily life. Most participants believed that problems with motor performance improved with exercise, appropriate physiotherapy guidance, and other supportive interventions. Nevertheless, people with Noonan syndrome and/or their relatives did not feel heard and supported and experienced no understanding of their problems by healthcare professionals. This was the first study from a patient perspective that described the motor performance problems in people with Noonan syndrome, the major consequences in daily life, the positive experiences of interventions and the miscommunication with healthcare professionals. To achieve optimal support, healthcare professionals, as well as people with Noonan syndrome and/or their relatives themselves, should be aware of these frequently presented problems with motor performance. Research on these different aspects is needed to better understand and support people with Noonan syndrome.© 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Assessing the potential of support vector machine for estimating daily solar radiation using sunshine duration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Ji-Long; Li, Guo-Sheng; Wu, Sheng-Jun

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Support vector machine is used to estimate daily solar radiation from sunshine duration. • Seven SVM models using different input attributes are evaluated using 35 years long term data. • SVM models significantly outperform the empirical models. • The optimal SVM model is proposed. - Abstract: Estimation of solar radiation from sunshine duration offers an important alternative in the absence of measured solar radiation. However, due to the dynamic nature of atmosphere, accurate estimation of daily solar radiation has been being a challenging task. This paper presents an application of Support vector machine (SVM) to estimation of daily solar radiation using sunshine duration. Seven SVM models using different input attributes and five empirical sunshine-based models are evaluated using meteorological data at three stations in Liaoning province in China. All the SVM models give good performances and significantly outperform the empirical models. The newly developed model, SVM1 using sunshine ratio as input attribute, is preferred due to its greater accuracy and simple input attribute. It performs better in winter, while highest root mean square error and relative root mean square error are obtained in summer. The season-dependent SVM model is superior to the fixed model in estimation of daily solar radiation for winter, while consideration of seasonal variation of the data sets cannot improve the results for spring, summer and autumn. Moreover, daily solar radiation could be well estimated by SVM1 using the data from nearby stations. The results indicate that the SVM method would be a promising alternative over the traditional approaches for estimation of daily solar radiation

Nurses' daily life: gender relations from the time spent in hospital

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Audrey Vidal Pereira

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Objective: to analyze the everyday life of nurses through the sexual work division as well as through interdependence relations and the time in hospital.Method: quanti-qualitative study, based on the Time Use Survey and in Norbert Elias's Configuration Theory of Interdependencies. Daily shifts distribution record, directed by 42 participants - with self-confrontation - by interviews which drew dialogues on subjective aspects of the everyday experiences related to use of time, based on a job at a university hospital. The theoretical intake that founded data analysis was based on concepts of conflicts of interest, power struggles, sexual work division and polychronic-monochronic concepts - whether the work environment demands multitasking nurses or not.Results: time records allowed to observe differences between the groups studied, useful to identify conflicts, tensions, power struggles and gender inequalities in interviewees' everyday affairs that do not only affect physical and mental health, but also their way of life.Conclusion: the analytical path pointed out the need for public policies that promote equity in gender relations, keeping at sight the exercise of plural discourses and tolerant stances capable to respect differences between individual and collective time.

Nurses' daily life: gender relations from the time spent in hospital.

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, Audrey Vidal

2015-01-01

to analyze the everyday life of nurses through the sexual work division as well as through interdependence relations and the time in hospital. quanti-qualitative study, based on the Time Use Survey and in Norbert Elias's Configuration Theory of Interdependencies. Daily shifts distribution record, directed by 42 participants--with self-confrontation--by interviews which drew dialogues on subjective aspects of the everyday experiences related to use of time, based on a job at a university hospital. The theoretical intake that founded data analysis was based on concepts of conflicts of interest, power struggles, sexual work division and polychronic-monochronic concepts--whether the work environment demands multitasking nurses or not. time records allowed to observe differences between the groups studied, useful to identify conflicts, tensions, power struggles and gender inequalities in interviewees' everyday affairs that do not only affect physical and mental health, but also their way of life. the analytical path pointed out the need for public policies that promote equity in gender relations, keeping at sight the exercise of plural discourses and tolerant stances capable to respect differences between individual and collective time.

Modelling and short-term forecasting of daily peak power demand in Victoria using two-dimensional wavelet based SDP models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Truong, Nguyen-Vu; Wang, Liuping; Wong, Peter K.C.

2008-01-01

Power demand forecasting is of vital importance to the management and planning of power system operations which include generation, transmission, distribution, as well as system's security analysis and economic pricing processes. This paper concerns the modeling and short-term forecast of daily peak power demand in the state of Victoria, Australia. In this study, a two-dimensional wavelet based state dependent parameter (SDP) modelling approach is used to produce a compact mathematical model for this complex nonlinear dynamic system. In this approach, a nonlinear system is expressed by a set of linear regressive input and output terms (state variables) multiplied by the respective state dependent parameters that carry the nonlinearities in the form of 2-D wavelet series expansions. This model is identified based on historical data, descriptively representing the relationship and interaction between various components which affect the peak power demand of a certain day. The identified model has been used to forecast daily peak power demand in the state of Victoria, Australia in the time period from the 9th of August 2007 to the 24th of August 2007. With a MAPE (mean absolute prediction error) of 1.9%, it has clearly implied the effectiveness of the identified model. (author)

Estimating daily minimum, maximum, and mean near surface air temperature using hybrid satellite models across Israel.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenfeld, Adar; Dorman, Michael; Schwartz, Joel; Novack, Victor; Just, Allan C; Kloog, Itai

2017-11-01

Meteorological stations measure air temperature (Ta) accurately with high temporal resolution, but usually suffer from limited spatial resolution due to their sparse distribution across rural, undeveloped or less populated areas. Remote sensing satellite-based measurements provide daily surface temperature (Ts) data in high spatial and temporal resolution and can improve the estimation of daily Ta. In this study we developed spatiotemporally resolved models which allow us to predict three daily parameters: Ta Max (day time), 24h mean, and Ta Min (night time) on a fine 1km grid across the state of Israel. We used and compared both the Aqua and Terra MODIS satellites. We used linear mixed effect models, IDW (inverse distance weighted) interpolations and thin plate splines (using a smooth nonparametric function of longitude and latitude) to first calibrate between Ts and Ta in those locations where we have available data for both and used that calibration to fill in neighboring cells without surface monitors or missing Ts. Out-of-sample ten-fold cross validation (CV) was used to quantify the accuracy of our predictions. Our model performance was excellent for both days with and without available Ts observations for both Aqua and Terra (CV Aqua R 2 results for min 0.966, mean 0.986, and max 0.967; CV Terra R 2 results for min 0.965, mean 0.987, and max 0.968). Our research shows that daily min, mean and max Ta can be reliably predicted using daily MODIS Ts data even across Israel, with high accuracy even for days without Ta or Ts data. These predictions can be used as three separate Ta exposures in epidemiology studies for better diurnal exposure assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

U.S. Daily Surface Data (COOP Daily/Summary of Day)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — U.S. Daily Surface Data consists of several closely related data sets: DSI-3200, DSI-3202, DSI-3206, and DSI-3210. These are archived at the National Climatic Data...

Linear and regressive stochastic models for prediction of daily maximum ozone values at Mexico City atmosphere

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bravo, J. L [Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Nava, M. M [Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Gay, C [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

2001-07-01

We developed a procedure to forecast, with 2 or 3 hours, the daily maximum of surface ozone concentrations. It involves the adjustment of Autoregressive Integrated and Moving Average (ARIMA) models to daily ozone maximum concentrations at 10 monitoring atmospheric stations in Mexico City during one-year period. A one-day forecast is made and it is adjusted with the meteorological and solar radiation information acquired during the first 3 hours before the occurrence of the maximum value. The relative importance for forecasting of the history of the process and of meteorological conditions is evaluated. Finally an estimate of the daily probability of exceeding a given ozone level is made. [Spanish] Se aplica un procedimiento basado en la metodologia conocida como ARIMA, para predecir, con 2 o 3 horas de anticipacion, el valor maximo de la concentracion diaria de ozono. Esta basado en el calculo de autorregresiones y promedios moviles aplicados a los valores maximos de ozono superficial provenientes de 10 estaciones de monitoreo atmosferico en la Ciudad de Mexico y obtenidos durante un ano de muestreo. El pronostico para un dia se ajusta con la informacion meteorologica y de radiacion solar correspondiente a un periodo que antecede con al menos tres horas la ocurrencia esperada del valor maximo. Se compara la importancia relativa de la historia del proceso y de las condiciones meteorologicas previas para el pronostico. Finalmente se estima la probabilidad diaria de que un nivel normativo o preestablecido para contingencias de ozono sea rebasado.

Adolescents' Attitudes on Smoking Are Related to Experimentation with Smoking, Daily Smoking and Best Friends' Smoking in Two Karelias in Finland and in Russia.

Science.gov (United States)

Aura, Annamari; Laatikainen, Tiina; Isoaho, Hannu; Lazutkina, Galina; Tossavainen, Kerttu

2016-12-01

Becoming a smoker usually starts during adolescence and is a dynamic process involving experimentation before the establishment of daily smoking. It has been suggested that adolescents who smoke differ from those who do not in their attitudes to smoking. The purpose of this study was to find out whether attitudes related to smoking legislation and restrictions, social pressures in smoking and image of smokers are associated with smoking experimentation, daily smoking and best friends' smoking. The data were gathered with a self-administered questionnaire in North Karelia, Eastern Finland and in the Pitkyaranta district, Republic of Karelia, Russia. The respondents were 15-year-old 9th grade pupils in local schools. In Pitkyaranta, the data analyses covered pupils in all eight schools in the area (n = 179). In North Karelia, the data analyses comprised of selected eight schools (n = 601). Data were analysed with exploratory factor analysis. The models revealed that attitudes related to restrictions and social pressure were significantly associated with experimenting with smoking [OR (95 % CI) 7.923 (5.787-10.847)], daily smoking [OR (95 % CI) 9.575 (6.727-13.628)] and the likelihood of best friends' smoking [OR (95 % CI) 3.154 (2.579-3.858)]. The stronger the young peoples' attitudes and opinions, for example, towards restrictions and with more difficulties in refusing smoking, the higher the likelihood for smoking experimentations, daily smoking as well as the likelihood for their best friends' smoking. The country and factor interactions were not associated with smoking experimentations, daily smoking or best friends' smoking. Regardless of cultural background, adolescents who smoke have more positive attitudes to smoking, and perceive more social support for smoking, than do adolescents who do not smoke. The study stresses the similarity of the results in both Karelia's despite the enormous differences in culture, economy and public policy.

Work-related boredom and depressed mood from a daily perspective: The moderating roles of work centrality and need satisfaction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hooff, M.L.M. van; Hooft, E.A.J. van

2016-01-01

This study aimed to advance insight into inter- and intrapersonal processes that may affect the associations between work-related boredom and employee well-being. We employed a daily perspective to examine (1) the relations between work-related boredom and depressed mood at the end of the workday

Intraindividual change and variability in daily stress processes: Findings from two measurement-burst diary studies

Science.gov (United States)

Sliwinski, Martin J.; Almeida, David M.; Smyth, Joshua; Stawski, Robert S.

2010-01-01

There is little longitudinal information on aging-related changes in emotional responses to negative events. The present manuscript examined intraindividual change and variability in the within-person coupling of daily stress and negative affect (NA) using data from two-measurement burst daily diary studies. Three main findings emerged. First, average reactivity to daily stress increased longitudinally, and this increase was evident across most the adult lifespan. Second, individual differences in emotional reactivity to daily stress exhibited long-term temporal stability, but this stability was greatest in midlife and decreased in old age. And third, reactivity to daily stress varied reliably within-persons (across-time), with individual exhibiting higher levels of reactivity during times when reporting high levels of global subject stress in previous month. Taken together, the present results emphasize the importance of modeling dynamic psychosocial and aging processes that operate across different time scales for understanding age-related changes in daily stress processes. PMID:20025399

A Model for Hourly Solar Radiation Data Generation from Daily Solar Radiation Data Using a Generalized Regression Artificial Neural Network

OpenAIRE

Khatib, Tamer; Elmenreich, Wilfried

2015-01-01

This paper presents a model for predicting hourly solar radiation data using daily solar radiation averages. The proposed model is a generalized regression artificial neural network. This model has three inputs, namely, mean daily solar radiation, hour angle, and sunset hour angle. The output layer has one node which is mean hourly solar radiation. The training and development of the proposed model are done using MATLAB and 43800 records of hourly global solar radiation. The results show that...

The Effects of the Daily Driven Distance and Age Factor on the Traffic Accidents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Figen Ş. KALYONCUOĞLU

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Based on Turkish traffic survey data (n=5,520, driver accident rates per million kilometre-driver were compared according to the daily driven distances (DDD for each age group as very old (65+, n=39, old (56-65, n=183, above middle-aged (36-55, n=1,875, middle-aged (26-35, n=2,204, and young (25-, n=1,219. When the accidents-per-km comparison was made in groups matched for daily exposure, there was no evidence of higher risk with increasing age. In all age groups, risk per km decreased with increasing daily driving distance. With this study the accident involvement prediction models have been obtained related to the daily driven distance with and without considering age. These models have been applied to some earlier studies. The results are quite satisfactory. The set of data of this study and the analysis controlling the daily (yearly driving distance might make the “age” effect disappear.

Simulation of daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations within the Cedar River Basin, Iowa, using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model

Science.gov (United States)

Christiansen, Daniel E.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, conducted a study to examine techniques for estimation of daily streamflows using hydrological models and statistical methods. This report focuses on the use of a hydrologic model, the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, to estimate daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, physically based, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on surface-water runoff and general basin hydrology. The Cedar River Basin was selected to construct a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model that simulates the period from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010. The calibration period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004, and the validation periods were from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010 and January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A Geographic Information System tool was used to delineate the Cedar River Basin and subbasins for the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and to derive parameters based on the physical geographical features. Calibration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was completed using a U.S. Geological Survey calibration software tool. The main objective of the calibration was to match the daily streamflow simulated by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model with streamflow measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. The Cedar River Basin daily streamflow model performed with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.82 to 0.33 during the calibration period, and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.77 to -0.04 during the validation period. The Cedar River Basin model is meeting the criteria of greater than 0.50 Nash-Sutcliffe and is a good fit for streamflow conditions for the calibration period at all but one location, Austin, Minnesota

Making Daily Mobility

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Ole B.; Wind, Simon

elucidate aspects of urban everyday mobility that can be utilized in policy and planning perspectives. This knowledge can aid construction of generalized qualitative scenarios that together with quantitative transport models can serve as wider knowledge foundation in decision making process.......In 2012 the average daily transportation distance for every Dane were 40 km (TU Data). Realising how much of life is spend thinking about, planning and performing mobility practices it becomes evident that it is much more than an instrumental physical phenomenon – it has great repercussions on life......, social networks, understanding of places and ultimately ourselves and others. To successfully accomplish everyday life, households have to cope with large number of different activities and mobility in relation to their children, work, social life, obligations, expectations, needs and wishes. Drawing...

Productive and counterproductive job crafting: A daily diary study.

Science.gov (United States)

Demerouti, Evangelia; Bakker, Arnold B; Halbesleben, Jonathon R B

2015-10-01

The present study aims to uncover the way daily job crafting influences daily job performance (i.e., task performance, altruism, and counterproductive work behavior). Job crafting was conceptualized as "seeking resources," "seeking challenges," and "reducing demands" and viewed as strategies individuals use to optimize their job characteristics. We hypothesized that daily job crafting relates to daily job demands and resources (work pressure and autonomy), which consequently relate to daily work engagement and exhaustion and ultimately to job performance. A sample of 95 employees filled in a quantitative diary for 5 consecutive working days (n occasions = 475). We predicted and found that daily seeking resources was positively associated with daily task performance because daily autonomy and work engagement increased. In contrast, daily reducing demands was detrimental for daily task performance and altruism, because employees lower their daily workload and consequently their engagement and exhaustion, respectively. Only daily seeking challenges was positively (rather than negatively) associated with daily counterproductive behavior. We conclude that employee job crafting can have both beneficial and detrimental effects on job performance. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Nowcasting daily minimum air and grass temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Savage, M. J.

2016-02-01

Site-specific and accurate prediction of daily minimum air and grass temperatures, made available online several hours before their occurrence, would be of significant benefit to several economic sectors and for planning human activities. Site-specific and reasonably accurate nowcasts of daily minimum temperature several hours before its occurrence, using measured sub-hourly temperatures hours earlier in the morning as model inputs, was investigated. Various temperature models were tested for their ability to accurately nowcast daily minimum temperatures 2 or 4 h before sunrise. Temperature datasets used for the model nowcasts included sub-hourly grass and grass-surface (infrared) temperatures from one location in South Africa and air temperature from four subtropical sites varying in altitude (USA and South Africa) and from one site in central sub-Saharan Africa. Nowcast models used employed either exponential or square root functions to describe the rate of nighttime temperature decrease but inverted so as to determine the minimum temperature. The models were also applied in near real-time using an open web-based system to display the nowcasts. Extrapolation algorithms for the site-specific nowcasts were also implemented in a datalogger in an innovative and mathematically consistent manner. Comparison of model 1 (exponential) nowcasts vs measured daily minima air temperatures yielded root mean square errors (RMSEs) <1 °C for the 2-h ahead nowcasts. Model 2 (also exponential), for which a constant model coefficient ( b = 2.2) was used, was usually slightly less accurate but still with RMSEs <1 °C. Use of model 3 (square root) yielded increased RMSEs for the 2-h ahead comparisons between nowcasted and measured daily minima air temperature, increasing to 1.4 °C for some sites. For all sites for all models, the comparisons for the 4-h ahead air temperature nowcasts generally yielded increased RMSEs, <2.1 °C. Comparisons for all model nowcasts of the daily grass

The dynamics of daily events and well-being across cultures: when less is more.

Science.gov (United States)

Oishi, Shigehiro; Diener, Ed; Choi, Dong-Won; Kim-Prieto, Chu; Choi, Incheol

2007-10-01

The authors examined cultural and individual differences in the relation between daily events and daily satisfaction. In a preliminary study, they established cross-cultural equivalence of 50 daily events. In the main study, participants in the United States, Korea, and Japan completed daily surveys on the 50 events and daily satisfaction for 21 days. The multilevel random coefficient model analyses showed that (a) the within-person association between positive events and daily satisfaction was significantly stronger among Asian American, Korean, and Japanese participants than among European American participants and (b) the within-person association between positive events and daily satisfaction was significantly weaker among individuals high in global life satisfaction than among those low in global life satisfaction. The findings demonstrate a weaker effect of positive events on daily well-being among individuals and cultures high in global well-being. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved).

The Effects of Adult Day Services on Family Caregivers’ Daily Stress, Affect, and Health: Outcomes From the Daily Stress and Health (DaSH) Study

Science.gov (United States)

Zarit, Steven H.; Kim, Kyungmin; Femia, Elia E.; Almeida, David M.; Klein, Laura C.

2014-01-01

Purpose: We examine the effects of use of adult day service (ADS) by caregivers of individuals with dementia (IWD) on daily stressors, affect, and health symptoms. Participants were interviewed for 8 consecutive days. On some days, the IWD attended an ADS program and on the other days caregivers provide most or all of the care at home. Methods: Participants were 173 family caregivers of IWDs using an ADS program. Daily telephone interviews assessed care-related stressors, noncare stressors, positive events, affect, and health symptoms. Multilevel models with data nested within persons were used to examine effects of ADS use on daily stressor exposure, affect, and health symptoms. Results: Caregivers had lower exposure to care-related stressors on ADS days, more positive experiences, and more noncare stressors. ADS use lowered anger and reduced the impact of noncare stressors on depressive symptoms. Implications: The findings demonstrate that stressors on caregivers are partly lowered, and affect is improved on ADS days, which may provide protection against the effects of chronic stress associated with caregiving. PMID:23690056

Daily Emotional and Physical Reactivity to Stressors Among Widowed and Married Older Adults

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Objectives. Widowhood may result in declines in health and potentially stressful changes to daily routines. However, little research has examined how daily stressors contribute to physical and emotional well-being in widowhood. The objectives of the current study were to examine daily stressor exposure and reactivity in widowed versus married older adults. Method. Participants included all 100 widowed and 342 married adults aged 65 and older from the National Study of Daily Experiences, a daily diary study from the second wave of the Midlife in the United States. Daily stressors were measured using the Daily Inventory of Stressful Events; multilevel modeling assessed daily reactivity to stressors using daily negative affect (emotional reactivity) and daily physical symptoms (physical reactivity) as outcomes. Results. Married participants reported more stressors in general, and specifically more interpersonal stressors (e.g., arguments). Both married and widowed participants were reactive to daily stressors. Married participants were physically and emotionally reactive to interpersonal stressors. Widowed participants were more physically reactive to home-related stressors. Discussion. Attention to the types of daily stressors that widowed older adults experience in daily life and the potential physical effects of daily stressors during widowhood may help to alleviate some of the physical distress that widowed older adults may experience. PMID:23685921

Daily emotional and physical reactivity to stressors among widowed and married older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Hahn, Elizabeth A; Cichy, Kelly E; Small, Brent J; Almeida, David M

2014-01-01

Widowhood may result in declines in health and potentially stressful changes to daily routines. However, little research has examined how daily stressors contribute to physical and emotional well-being in widowhood. The objectives of the current study were to examine daily stressor exposure and reactivity in widowed versus married older adults. Participants included all 100 widowed and 342 married adults aged 65 and older from the National Study of Daily Experiences, a daily diary study from the second wave of the Midlife in the United States. Daily stressors were measured using the Daily Inventory of Stressful Events; multilevel modeling assessed daily reactivity to stressors using daily negative affect (emotional reactivity) and daily physical symptoms (physical reactivity) as outcomes. Married participants reported more stressors in general, and specifically more interpersonal stressors (e.g., arguments). Both married and widowed participants were reactive to daily stressors. Married participants were physically and emotionally reactive to interpersonal stressors. Widowed participants were more physically reactive to home-related stressors. Attention to the types of daily stressors that widowed older adults experience in daily life and the potential physical effects of daily stressors during widowhood may help to alleviate some of the physical distress that widowed older adults may experience.

Effect of Estimated Daily Global Solar Radiation Data on the Results of Crop Growth Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Herbert Formayer

2007-10-01

Full Text Available The results of previous studies have suggested that estimated daily globalradiation (RG values contain an error that could compromise the precision of subsequentcrop model applications. The following study presents a detailed site and spatial analysis ofthe RG error propagation in CERES and WOFOST crop growth models in Central Europeanclimate conditions. The research was conducted i at the eight individual sites in Austria andthe Czech Republic where measured daily RG values were available as a reference, withseven methods for RG estimation being tested, and ii for the agricultural areas of the CzechRepublic using daily data from 52 weather stations, with five RG estimation methods. In thelatter case the RG values estimated from the hours of sunshine using the ångström-Prescottformula were used as the standard method because of the lack of measured RG data. At thesite level we found that even the use of methods based on hours of sunshine, which showedthe lowest bias in RG estimates, led to a significant distortion of the key crop model outputs.When the ångström-Prescott method was used to estimate RG, for example, deviationsgreater than ±10 per cent in winter wheat and spring barley yields were noted in 5 to 6 percent of cases. The precision of the yield estimates and other crop model outputs was lowerwhen RG estimates based on the diurnal temperature range and cloud cover were used (mean bias error 2.0 to 4.1 per cent. The methods for estimating RG from the diurnal temperature range produced a wheat yield bias of more than 25 per cent in 12 to 16 per cent of the seasons. Such uncertainty in the crop model outputs makes the reliability of any seasonal yield forecasts or climate change impact assessments questionable if they are based on this type of data. The spatial assessment of the RG data uncertainty propagation over the winter wheat yields also revealed significant differences within the study area. We

Daily Based Morgan–Morgan–Finney (DMMF Model: A Spatially Distributed Conceptual Soil Erosion Model to Simulate Complex Soil Surface Configurations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kwanghun Choi

2017-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we present the Daily based Morgan–Morgan–Finney model. The main processes in this model are based on the Morgan–Morgan–Finney soil erosion model, and it is suitable for estimating surface runoff and sediment redistribution patterns in seasonal climate regions with complex surface configurations. We achieved temporal flexibility by utilizing daily time steps, which is suitable for regions with concentrated seasonal rainfall. We introduce the proportion of impervious surface cover as a parameter to reflect its impacts on soil erosion through blocking water infiltration and protecting the soil from detachment. Also, several equations and sequences of sub-processes are modified from the previous model to better represent physical processes. From the sensitivity analysis using the Sobol’ method, the DMMF model shows the rational response to the input parameters which is consistent with the result from the previous versions. To evaluate the model performance, we applied the model to two potato fields in South Korea that had complex surface configurations using plastic covered ridges at various temporal periods during the monsoon season. Our new model shows acceptable performance for runoff and the sediment loss estimation ( NSE ≥ 0.63 , | PBIAS | ≤ 17.00 , and RSR ≤ 0.57 . Our findings demonstrate that the DMMF model is able to predict the surface runoff and sediment redistribution patterns for cropland with complex surface configurations.

Daily Deviations in Anger, Guilt, and Sympathy: A Developmental Diary Study of Aggression.

Science.gov (United States)

Colasante, Tyler; Zuffianò, Antonio; Malti, Tina

2016-11-01

With a diary study of 4- and 8-year-olds, we tested the association between daily deviations in anger and aggressive behavior, and whether this link was moderated by feelings of guilt and sympathy. Caregivers reported their children's anger and aggression for 10 consecutive days (470 records; N = 80, 53 % girls). To calculate daily anger deviations from average anger levels, we subtracted each child's average anger score (i.e., across 10 days) from his/her daily anger scores. Children reported their guilty feelings in response to vignettes depicting intentional harm, as well as their dispositional sympathy levels. Multilevel modeling indicated that within-child spikes in daily anger were associated with more aggression, above and beyond between-child differences in average anger levels. However, this association was weaker for children who reported higher levels of guilt. Sympathy did not moderate the anger-aggression link. We discuss potential implications for affective-developmental models of aggression and interventions that target anger-related aggression.

Applicability of Daily Solar Radiation Estimated by Mountain Microclimate Simulation Model (MT-CLIM) in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shim, K.M.; Kim, Y.S.; Lee, D.B.; Kang, K.K.; So, K.H.

2012-01-01

Accuracy of daily solar radiation estimated from a Mountain Microclimate Simulation Model (MT-CLIM) was assessed for seven observation sites with complex topography in Uiseong County. The coefficient of determination () between the observed and the estimated daily solar radiation was 0.52 for 7 sites for the study period from 1 August to 30 September 2009. Overall, the MT-CLIM overestimated the solar radiation with root mean square error (RMSE) of which is about 25% of the mean daily solar radiation () for the study period. Considering that the pyranometer's tolerance is of standard sensor, the RMSE of MT-CLIM was too large to accept for a direct application for agricultural sector. The reliability of solar radiation estimated by MT-CLIM must be improved by considering additional ways such as using a topography correction coefficient

Comparing an Annual and a Daily Time-Step Model for Predicting Field-Scale Phosphorus Loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Bolster, Carl H; Forsberg, Adam; Mittelstet, Aaron; Radcliffe, David E; Storm, Daniel; Ramirez-Avila, John; Sharpley, Andrew N; Osmond, Deanna

2017-11-01

A wide range of mathematical models are available for predicting phosphorus (P) losses from agricultural fields, ranging from simple, empirically based annual time-step models to more complex, process-based daily time-step models. In this study, we compare field-scale P-loss predictions between the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE), an empirically based annual time-step model, and the Texas Best Management Practice Evaluation Tool (TBET), a process-based daily time-step model based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. We first compared predictions of field-scale P loss from both models using field and land management data collected from 11 research sites throughout the southern United States. We then compared predictions of P loss from both models with measured P-loss data from these sites. We observed a strong and statistically significant ( loss between the two models; however, APLE predicted, on average, 44% greater dissolved P loss, whereas TBET predicted, on average, 105% greater particulate P loss for the conditions simulated in our study. When we compared model predictions with measured P-loss data, neither model consistently outperformed the other, indicating that more complex models do not necessarily produce better predictions of field-scale P loss. Our results also highlight limitations with both models and the need for continued efforts to improve their accuracy. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Ecological Interventionist Causal Models in Psychosis: Targeting Psychological Mechanisms in Daily Life

Science.gov (United States)

Reininghaus, Ulrich; Depp, Colin A.; Myin-Germeys, Inez

2016-01-01

Integrated models of psychotic disorders have posited a number of putative psychological mechanisms that may contribute to the development of psychotic symptoms, but it is only recently that a modest amount of experience sampling research has provided evidence on their role in daily life, outside the research laboratory. A number of methodological challenges remain in evaluating specificity of potential causal links between a given psychological mechanism and psychosis outcomes in a systematic fashion, capitalizing on longitudinal data to investigate temporal ordering. In this article, we argue for testing ecological interventionist causal models that draw on real world and real-time delivered, ecological momentary interventions for generating evidence on several causal criteria (association, time order, and direction/sole plausibility) under real-world conditions, while maximizing generalizability to social contexts and experiences in heterogeneous populations. Specifically, this approach tests whether ecological momentary interventions can (1) modify a putative mechanism and (2) produce changes in the mechanism that lead to sustainable changes in intended psychosis outcomes in individuals’ daily lives. Future research using this approach will provide translational evidence on the active ingredients of mobile health and in-person interventions that promote sustained effectiveness of ecological momentary interventions and, thereby, contribute to ongoing efforts that seek to enhance effectiveness of psychological interventions under real-world conditions. PMID:26707864

Bursts of Self-Conscious Emotions in the Daily Lives of Emerging Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Conroy, David E; Ram, Nilam; Pincus, Aaron L; Rebar, Amanda L

Self-conscious emotions play a role in regulating daily achievement strivings, social behavior, and health, but little is known about the processes underlying their daily manifestation. Emerging adults (n = 182) completed daily diaries for eight days and multilevel models were estimated to evaluate whether, how much, and why their emotions varied from day-to-day. Within-person variation in authentic pride was normally-distributed across people and days whereas the other emotions were burst-like and characterized by zero-inflated, negative binomial distributions. Perceiving social interactions as generally communal increased the odds of hubristic pride activation and reduced the odds of guilt activation; daily communal behavior reduced guilt intensity. Results illuminated processes through which meaning about the self-in-relation-to-others is constructed during a critical period of development.

Simulation of Daily Weather Data Using Theoretical Probability Distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruhn, J. A.; Fry, W. E.; Fick, G. W.

1980-09-01

A computer simulation model was constructed to supply daily weather data to a plant disease management model for potato late blight. In the weather model Monte Carlo techniques were employed to generate daily values of precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation. Each weather variable is described by a known theoretical probability distribution but the values of the parameters describing each distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rainfall. Precipitation occurrence is described by a first-order Markov chain. The amount of rain, given that rain has occurred, is described by a gamma probability distribution. Maximum and minimum temperature are simulated with a trivariate normal probability distribution involving maximum temperature on the previous day, maximum temperature on the current day and minimum temperature on the current day. Parameter values for this distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the previous day. Both minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation are assumed to be normally distributed. The values of the parameters describing the distribution of minimum relative humidity is dependent on rainfall occurrence on the previous day and current day. Parameter values for total solar radiation are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the current day. The assumptions made during model construction were found to be appropriate for actual weather data from Geneva, New York. The performance of the weather model was evaluated by comparing the cumulative frequency distributions of simulated weather data with the distributions of actual weather data from Geneva, New York and Fort Collins, Colorado. For each location, simulated weather data were similar to actual weather data in terms of mean response, variability and autocorrelation. The possible applications of this model when used with models of other components of the agro-ecosystem are discussed.

Daily events are important for age differences in mean and duration for negative affect but not positive affect.

Science.gov (United States)

Charles, Susan T; Mogle, Jacqueline; Urban, Emily J; Almeida, David M

2016-11-01

Across midlife and into old age, older adults often report lower levels of negative affect and similar if not higher levels of positive affect than relatively younger adults. Researchers have offered a simple explanation for this result: Age is related to reductions in stressors and increases in pleasurable activities that result in higher levels of well-being. The current study examines subjective reports of emotional experience assessed across 8 days in a large sample of adults (N = 2,022) ranging from 35 to 84 years old. By modeling age differences before and after adjusting for daily positive uplifts and negative stressors, this article assesses the extent to which daily events account for age differences in positive and negative affect reports. Consistent with previous research, the authors found that older age is related to lower mean levels and shorter duration of a negative emotional experience in a model only adjusting for gender, education, and ethnicity. After adjusting for daily events, however, the linear age-related effects were no longer significant. For positive affect, adjusting for daily events did not alter age-related patterns of experiencing higher mean levels and longer positive experience duration, suggesting that other factors underlie age-related increases in positive affect. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

SU-F-R-41: Regularized PCA Can Model Treatment-Related Changes in Head and Neck Patients Using Daily CBCTs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chetvertkov, M; Siddiqui, F; Chetty, I; Kumarasiri, A; Liu, C; Gordon, J

2016-01-01

Purpose: To use daily cone beam CTs (CBCTs) to develop regularized principal component analysis (PCA) models of anatomical changes in head and neck (H&N) patients, to guide replanning decisions in adaptive radiation therapy (ART). Methods: Known deformations were applied to planning CT (pCT) images of 10 H&N patients to model several different systematic anatomical changes. A Pinnacle plugin was used to interpolate systematic changes over 35 fractions, generating a set of 35 synthetic CTs for each patient. Deformation vector fields (DVFs) were acquired between the pCT and synthetic CTs and random fraction-to-fraction changes were superimposed on the DVFs. Standard non-regularized and regularized patient-specific PCA models were built using the DVFs. The ability of PCA to extract the known deformations was quantified. PCA models were also generated from clinical CBCTs, for which the deformations and DVFs were not known. It was hypothesized that resulting eigenvectors/eigenfunctions with largest eigenvalues represent the major anatomical deformations during the course of treatment. Results: As demonstrated with quantitative results in the supporting document regularized PCA is more successful than standard PCA at capturing systematic changes early in the treatment. Regularized PCA is able to detect smaller systematic changes against the background of random fraction-to-fraction changes. To be successful at guiding ART, regularized PCA should be coupled with models of when anatomical changes occur: early, late or throughout the treatment course. Conclusion: The leading eigenvector/eigenfunction from the both PCA approaches can tentatively be identified as a major systematic change during radiotherapy course when systematic changes are large enough with respect to random fraction-to-fraction changes. In all cases the regularized PCA approach appears to be more reliable at capturing systematic changes, enabling dosimetric consequences to be projected once trends are

SU-F-R-41: Regularized PCA Can Model Treatment-Related Changes in Head and Neck Patients Using Daily CBCTs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chetvertkov, M [Wayne State University, Detroit, MI (United States); Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, MI (United States); Siddiqui, F; Chetty, I; Kumarasiri, A; Liu, C; Gordon, J [Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, MI (United States)

2016-06-15

Purpose: To use daily cone beam CTs (CBCTs) to develop regularized principal component analysis (PCA) models of anatomical changes in head and neck (H&N) patients, to guide replanning decisions in adaptive radiation therapy (ART). Methods: Known deformations were applied to planning CT (pCT) images of 10 H&N patients to model several different systematic anatomical changes. A Pinnacle plugin was used to interpolate systematic changes over 35 fractions, generating a set of 35 synthetic CTs for each patient. Deformation vector fields (DVFs) were acquired between the pCT and synthetic CTs and random fraction-to-fraction changes were superimposed on the DVFs. Standard non-regularized and regularized patient-specific PCA models were built using the DVFs. The ability of PCA to extract the known deformations was quantified. PCA models were also generated from clinical CBCTs, for which the deformations and DVFs were not known. It was hypothesized that resulting eigenvectors/eigenfunctions with largest eigenvalues represent the major anatomical deformations during the course of treatment. Results: As demonstrated with quantitative results in the supporting document regularized PCA is more successful than standard PCA at capturing systematic changes early in the treatment. Regularized PCA is able to detect smaller systematic changes against the background of random fraction-to-fraction changes. To be successful at guiding ART, regularized PCA should be coupled with models of when anatomical changes occur: early, late or throughout the treatment course. Conclusion: The leading eigenvector/eigenfunction from the both PCA approaches can tentatively be identified as a major systematic change during radiotherapy course when systematic changes are large enough with respect to random fraction-to-fraction changes. In all cases the regularized PCA approach appears to be more reliable at capturing systematic changes, enabling dosimetric consequences to be projected once trends are

Goal conflict and goal facilitation as predictors of daily accelerometer-assessed physical activity.

Science.gov (United States)

Presseau, Justin; Tait, Richard I; Johnston, Derek W; Francis, Jill J; Sniehotta, Falko F

2013-12-01

To test whether perceptions of conflicting and facilitating personal goals, and actual daily time spent in their pursuit, predict accelerometer-assessed physical activity (PA). A prospective multilevel design with a daily accelerometer-based assessment of PA over 1 week was used (N = 106). Participants' personal goals were elicited using personal projects analysis. Participants then rated their personal goals in terms of how they were perceived to facilitate and conflict with their regular PA. Items assessing PA-specific intention and perceived behavioral control (PBC) were also embedded within the baseline measures. For the subsequent 7 consecutive days, participants completed a daily diary based on the day reconstruction method, indicating the time spent in daily episodes involving each of their personal goals, and wore an RT3 tri-axial accelerometer. The main outcome was accelerometer-assessed daily time spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Random intercept multilevel models indicated that perceived goal facilitation, but not perceived goal conflict, predicted MVPA over and above intention and PBC. Daily time pursuing conflicting goals negatively predicted MVPA when subsequently added to the model and in so doing, attenuated the association between perceived goal facilitation and MVPA. Perceived goal facilitation predicts objectively measured PA over and above intention and PBC, but daily time spent in pursuit of conflicting personal goals provides a better account of how alternative goals relate to engaging in regular PA.

The stress of food allergy issues in daily life.

Science.gov (United States)

Peniamina, Rana L; Mirosa, Miranda; Bremer, Philip; Conner, Tamlin S

2016-06-01

Food allergies are a growing health concern, but their implications for daily psychological functioning are unknown. This micro-longitudinal study investigated the daily frequency of food allergy issues and how this related to experiences of stress, mood and physical energy. One hundred and eight adults with physician-diagnosed food allergies completed an initial Internet survey followed by a 2-week Internet daily diary survey. The initial survey collected socio-demographic and food allergy information. The daily survey collected information about the participants' experiences of stress, mood, physical energy and food allergy issues during that day. Commonly experienced allergy issues included negative physical symptoms, higher food prices, anxiety about safety of food, trouble maintaining a healthy diet and anxiety/stress at social occasions. Furthermore, multilevel modelling analyses showed that stress and negative mood were significantly higher on days with more allergy issues. Older adults experienced lower positive mood and physical energy on days with more issues. This is the first study to incorporate near to real-time tracking to examine the frequency of food allergy issues and the implications for daily psychological functioning. Targeting the issues we identified could reduce stress in patients with food allergies and improve their overall quality of life.

Depressive Symptoms, Disclosure, HIV-Related Stigma, and Coping Following HIV Testing Among Outpatients in Uganda: A Daily Process Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kiene, Susan M; Dove, Meredith; Wanyenze, Rhoda K

2018-05-01

As efforts to end the HIV epidemic accelerate there is emphasis on reaching those living with undiagnosed HIV infection. Newly diagnosed individuals face a number of psychosocial challenges, yet we know little about depressive symptoms in the weeks immediately following diagnosis and how disclosure, coping, and other factors may affect short and longer-term depressive symptoms. Purposively sampled Ugandan outpatients completed structured interviews immediately prior to testing for HIV, daily for 28 days after receiving their test results, and at 3 and 6 months post-test. The sample included a total of 244 participants: 20 who tested HIV positive at baseline and who provided 342 daily data points, and 224 who tested HIV negative at baseline and who provided 4388 daily data points. We used linear mixed effects modeling to examine changes in depressive symptom scores over the 28 day daily interview period and predictors of depressive symptom scores and changes over time. Results from the mixed modeling revealed that while those diagnosed with HIV showed initially high depressive symptoms following diagnosis, their symptoms decreased significantly and on average fell below the cutoff for possible depression approximately 15 days after diagnosis. Among those who tested HIV-negative, on average their depressive symptoms were below the cutoff for possible depression and did not change over time. Among those diagnosed with HIV, disclosure, especially to a partner, on a particular day was associated with higher depressive symptoms that day. However, those who disclosed to their partner during the 28 days after diagnosis had significantly lower depression scores by the end of the 28 days as well as lower depression scores 3 and 6 months after diagnosis than did those who did not disclose to their partner during the 28 days after diagnosis. Scoring higher on HIV-related stigma on a particular day was associated with higher depressive symptoms that day and engaging

Hydrometeorological daily recharge assessment model (DREAM) for the Western Mountain Aquifer, Israel: Model application and effects of temporal patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Sheffer, N. A.; Dafny, E.; Gvirtzman, H.; Navon, S.; Frumkin, A.; Morin, E.

2010-05-01

Recharge is a critical issue for water management. Recharge assessment and the factors affecting recharge are of scientific and practical importance. The purpose of this study was to develop a daily recharge assessment model (DREAM) on the basis of a water balance principle with input from conventional and generally available precipitation and evaporation data and demonstrate the application of this model to recharge estimation in the Western Mountain Aquifer (WMA) in Israel. The WMA (area 13,000 km2) is a karst aquifer that supplies 360-400 Mm3 yr-1 of freshwater, which constitutes 20% of Israel's freshwater and is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. DREAM was linked to a groundwater flow model (FEFLOW) to simulate monthly hydraulic heads and spring flows. The models were calibrated for 1987-2002 and validated for 2003-2007, yielding high agreement between calculated and measured values (R2 = 0.95; relative root-mean-square error = 4.8%; relative bias = 1.04). DREAM allows insights into the effect of intra-annual precipitation distribution factors on recharge. Although annual precipitation amount explains ˜70% of the variability in simulated recharge, analyses with DREAM indicate that the rainy season length is an important factor controlling recharge. Years with similar annual precipitation produce different recharge values as a result of temporal distribution throughout the rainy season. An experiment with a synthetic data set exhibits similar results, explaining ˜90% of the recharge variability. DREAM represents significant improvement over previous recharge estimation techniques in this region by providing near-real-time recharge estimates that can be used to predict the impact of climate variability on groundwater resources at high temporal and spatial resolution.

Measurement of time processing ability and daily time management in children with disabilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Janeslätt, Gunnel; Granlund, Mats; Kottorp, Anders

2009-01-01

Improvement is needed in methods for planning and evaluating interventions designed to facilitate daily time management for children with intellectual disability, Asperger syndrome, or other developmental disorders. The aim of this study was to empirically investigate the hypothesized relation between children's time processing ability (TPA), daily time management, and self-rated autonomy. Such a relationship between daily time management and TPA may support the idea that TPA is important for daily time management and that children with difficulties in TPA might benefit from intervention aimed at improving daily time management. Participants were children aged 6 to 11 years with dysfunctions such as attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, autism, or physical or intellectual disabilities (N = 118). TPA was measured with the instrument KaTid. All data were transformed to interval measures using applications of Rasch models and then further analysed with correlation and regression analysis. The results demonstrate a moderate significant relation between the parents' ratings of daily time management and TPA of the children, and between the self-rating of autonomy and TPA. There was also a significant relation between self-ratings of autonomy and the parents' rating of the children's daily time management. Parents' ratings of their children's daily time management explain 25% of the variation in TPA, age of the children explains 22%, while the child's self-rating of autonomy can explain 9% of the variation in TPA. The three variables together explain 38% of the variation in TPA. The results indicate the viability of the instrument for assessing TPA also in children with disabilities and that the ability measured by KaTid is relevant for daily time management. TPA seems to be a factor for children's daily time management that needs to be taken into consideration when planning and evaluating interventions designed to facilitate everyday functioning for children with

Perceived motor problems in daily life: Focus group interviews with people with Noonan syndrome and their relatives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Croonen, E.A.; Harmsen, M.; Burgt, I. van der; Draaisma, J.M.T.; Noordam, C.; Essink, M.; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, M.W.G.

2016-01-01

Studies from a patient perspective on motor performance problems in Noonan syndrome in daily life are lacking. The aims of this study were to provide insight into the motor performance problems that people with Noonan syndrome and/or their relatives experienced, the major consequences they suffered,

Evaluation of statistical and rainfall-runoff models for predicting historical daily streamflow time series in the Des Moines and Iowa River watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

Farmer, William H.; Knight, Rodney R.; Eash, David A.; Kasey J. Hutchinson,; Linhart, S. Mike; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Over, Thomas M.; Kiang, Julie E.

2015-08-24

Daily records of streamflow are essential to understanding hydrologic systems and managing the interactions between human and natural systems. Many watersheds and locations lack streamgages to provide accurate and reliable records of daily streamflow. In such ungaged watersheds, statistical tools and rainfall-runoff models are used to estimate daily streamflow. Previous work compared 19 different techniques for predicting daily streamflow records in the southeastern United States. Here, five of the better-performing methods are compared in a different hydroclimatic region of the United States, in Iowa. The methods fall into three classes: (1) drainage-area ratio methods, (2) nonlinear spatial interpolations using flow duration curves, and (3) mechanistic rainfall-runoff models. The first two classes are each applied with nearest-neighbor and map-correlated index streamgages. Using a threefold validation and robust rank-based evaluation, the methods are assessed for overall goodness of fit of the hydrograph of daily streamflow, the ability to reproduce a daily, no-fail storage-yield curve, and the ability to reproduce key streamflow statistics. As in the Southeast study, a nonlinear spatial interpolation of daily streamflow using flow duration curves is found to be a method with the best predictive accuracy. Comparisons with previous work in Iowa show that the accuracy of mechanistic models with at-site calibration is substantially degraded in the ungaged framework.

Objectively Measured Daily Physical Activity and Postural Changes as Related to Positive and Negative Affect Using Ambulatory Monitoring Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Aggio, Daniel; Wallace, Karen; Boreham, Nicola; Shankar, Aparna; Steptoe, Andrew; Hamer, Mark

2017-09-01

The aim of the study was to determine whether objectively measured daily physical activity and posture of sitting, standing, and sit-to-stand transitions are associated with daily assessments of affect. Participants (N = 51, 49% female) wore ActivPal accelerometers for 24 h/d for seven consecutive days. Time spent sitting, standing, and being physically active and sit-to-stand transitions were derived for each day. Participants also completed a mood inventory each evening. Multilevel models examined within- and between-person associations of daily physical activity with positive and negative affect, adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, education, and sleep duration. Within-person associations showed that a 1-hour increase in daily physical activity was associated with a decrease in negative affect over the same day (B = -0.11, 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.21 to -0.01). Between-person associations indicated a borderline significant association between higher average daily physical activity levels and higher positive affect (B = 1.85, 95% CI = -0.25 to 3.94). There were no between- or within-person associations between sitting, standing, and sit-to-stand transitions with affect. Promoting physical activity may be a potential intervention strategy to acutely suppress negative affective states.

Oral impacts on daily performances and recent use of dental services in schoolchildren.

Science.gov (United States)

Monsantofils, Monica; Bernabé, Eduardo

2014-11-01

To explore whether oral impacts on daily performances are related to recent use of dental services among children and whether oral impacts on specific daily performances are more strongly related to recent use of dental services. Data from a cross-sectional survey, including 805 11-12-year-old children attending four randomly selected schools in Lima (Peru), were used. The child version of the oral impacts on daily performances (Child-OIDP) was used to assess prevalence, intensity, and extent of oral impacts. Use of dental services was assessed by self-reports of last dental visit and reason for the visit. Associations of the prevalence, intensity, and extent of oral impacts with use of dental services were tested in logistic regression models. Children with oral impacts were 1.99 (95% CI: 1.17-3.37) times more likely to have used dental services recently than their counterparts. The intensity and extent of oral impacts were linearly associated with children's use of dental services. Difficulties in eating were the only type of oral impacts on daily performances associated with use of dental services, independent of children's demographic characteristics, and impacts on other performances. Oral impacts on daily performances were related to recent use of dental services among these schoolchildren. © 2013 BSPD, IAPD and John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Forcasting Philippine daily stock exchange index | Urrutia | Journal ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The purpose of the study is to produce a model that can estimate a three-year forecast of the Philippine Daily Stock Exchange Index. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model is applied ona total of 4,927 daily data observations from 1995 to 2014. By then, actual and predicted values was ...

Combining Radar and Daily Precipitation Data to Estimate Meaningful Sub-daily Precipitation Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Pegram, G. G. S.; Bardossy, A.

2016-12-01

Short duration extreme rainfalls are important for design. The purpose of this presentation is not to improve the day by day estimation of precipitation, but to obtain reasonable statistics for the subdaily extremes at gauge locations. We are interested specifically in daily and sub-daily extreme values of precipitation at gauge locations. We do not employ the common procedure of using time series of control station to determine the missing data values in a target. We are interested in individual rare events, not sequences. The idea is to use radar to disaggregate daily totals to sub-daily amounts. In South Arica, an S-band radar operated relatively continuously at Bethlehem from 1998 to 2003, whose scan at 1.5 km above ground [CAPPI] overlapped a dense (10 km spacing) set of 45 pluviometers recording in the same 6-year period. Using this valuable set of data, we are only interested in rare extremes, therefore small to medium values of rainfall depth were neglected, leaving 12 days of ranked daily maxima in each set per year, whose sum typically comprised about 50% of each annual rainfall total. The method presented here uses radar for disaggregating daily gauge totals in subdaily intervals down to 15 minutes in order to extract the maxima of sub-hourly through to daily rainfall at each of 37 selected radar pixels [1 km square in plan] which contained one of the 45 pluviometers not masked out by the radar foot-print. The pluviometer data were aggregated to daily totals, to act as if they were daily read gauges; their only other task was to help in the cross-validation exercise. The extrema were obtained as quantiles by ordering the 12 daily maxima of each interval per year. The unusual and novel goal was not to obtain the reproduction of the precipitation matching in space and time, but to obtain frequency distributions of the gauge and radar extremes, by matching their ranks, which we found to be stable and meaningful in cross-validation tests. We provide and

A Comparison of SWAT and ANN Models for Daily Runoff Simulation in Different Climatic Zones of Peninsular Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patricia Jimeno-Sáez

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Streamflow data are of prime importance to water-resources planning and management, and the accuracy of their estimation is very important for decision making. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT and Artificial Neural Network (ANN models have been evaluated and compared to find a method to improve streamflow estimation. For a more complete evaluation, the accuracy and ability of these streamflow estimation models was also established separately based on their performance during different periods of flows using regional flow duration curves (FDCs. Specifically, the FDCs were divided into five sectors: very low, low, medium, high and very high flow. This segmentation of flow allows analysis of the model performance for every important discharge event precisely. In this study, the models were applied in two catchments in Peninsular Spain with contrasting climatic conditions: Atlantic and Mediterranean climates. The results indicate that SWAT and ANNs were generally good tools in daily streamflow modelling. However, SWAT was found to be more successful in relation to better simulation of lower flows, while ANNs were superior at estimating higher flows in all cases.

Daily river flow prediction based on Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy Systems Modeling: A case of hydrological - meteorological measurements asymmetry

Science.gov (United States)

Bou-Fakhreddine, Bassam; Mougharbel, Imad; Faye, Alain; Abou Chakra, Sara; Pollet, Yann

2018-03-01

Accurate daily river flow forecast is essential in many applications of water resources such as hydropower operation, agricultural planning and flood control. This paper presents a forecasting approach to deal with a newly addressed situation where hydrological data exist for a period longer than that of meteorological data (measurements asymmetry). In fact, one of the potential solutions to resolve measurements asymmetry issue is data re-sampling. It is a matter of either considering only the hydrological data or the balanced part of the hydro-meteorological data set during the forecasting process. However, the main disadvantage is that we may lose potentially relevant information from the left-out data. In this research, the key output is a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy inference hybrid model that is implemented over the non re-sampled data. The introduced modeling approach must be capable of exploiting the available data efficiently with higher prediction efficiency relative to Constructive Fuzzy model trained over re-sampled data set. The study was applied to Litani River in the Bekaa Valley - Lebanon by using 4 years of rainfall and 24 years of river flow daily measurements. A Constructive Fuzzy System Model (C-FSM) and a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy System Model (TPC-FSM) are trained. Upon validating, the second model has shown a primarily competitive performance and accuracy with the ability to preserve a higher day-to-day variability for 1, 3 and 6 days ahead. In fact, for the longest lead period, the C-FSM and TPC-FSM were able of explaining respectively 84.6% and 86.5% of the actual river flow variation. Overall, the results indicate that TPC-FSM model has provided a better tool to capture extreme flows in the process of streamflow prediction.

Daily physical activity and its contribution to the health-related quality of life of ambulatory individuals with chronic stroke.

Science.gov (United States)

Rand, Debbie; Eng, Janice J; Tang, Pei-Fang; Hung, Chihya; Jeng, Jiann-Shing

2010-08-03

Participation in daily physical activity (PA) post-stroke has not previously been investigated as a possible explanatory variable of health-related quality of life (HRQL). The aims were 1) to determine the contribution of daily PA to the HRQL of individuals with chronic stroke and 2) to assess the relationship between the functional ability of these individuals to the amount of daily PA. The amount of daily PA of forty adults with chronic stroke (mean age 66.5 +/- 9.6 years) was monitored using two measures. Accelerometers (Actical) were worn on the hip for three consecutive days in conjunction with a self-report questionnaire [the PA Scale for Individuals with Physical Disabilities (PASIPD)]. The daily physical activity was measured as the mean total accelerometer activity counts/day and the PASIPD scores as the metabolic equivalent (MET) hr/day. HRQL was assessed by the Physical and Mental composite scores of the Medical Outcomes Study Short-Form 36 (SF-36) in addition to the functional ability of the participants. Correlation and regression analyses were performed. After controlling for the severity of the motor impairment, the amount of daily PA, as assessed by the PASIPD and accelerometers, was found to independently contribute to 10-12% of the variance of the Physical Composite Score of the SF-36. No significant relationship was found between PA and the Mental Composite Score of the SF-36.The functional ability of the participants was found to be correlated to the amount of daily PA (r = 0.33 - 0.67, p < 0.01). The results suggest that daily PA is associated with better HRQL (as assessed by the Physical composite score of the SF-36) for people living with stroke. Daily PA should be encouraged to potentially increase HRQL. Accelerometers in conjunction with a self-report questionnaire may provide important measures of PA which can be monitored and modified, and potentially influence HRQL.

Daily physical activity and its contribution to the health-related quality of life of ambulatory individuals with chronic stroke

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rand Debbie

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Participation in daily physical activity (PA post-stroke has not previously been investigated as a possible explanatory variable of health-related quality of life (HRQL. The aims were 1 to determine the contribution of daily PA to the HRQL of individuals with chronic stroke and 2 to assess the relationship between the functional ability of these individuals to the amount of daily PA. Methods The amount of daily PA of forty adults with chronic stroke (mean age 66.5 ± 9.6 years was monitored using two measures. Accelerometers (Actical were worn on the hip for three consecutive days in conjunction with a self-report questionnaire [the PA Scale for Individuals with Physical Disabilities (PASIPD]. The daily physical activity was measured as the mean total accelerometer activity counts/day and the PASIPD scores as the metabolic equivalent (MET hr/day. HRQL was assessed by the Physical and Mental composite scores of the Medical Outcomes Study Short-Form 36 (SF-36 in addition to the functional ability of the participants. Correlation and regression analyses were performed. Results After controlling for the severity of the motor impairment, the amount of daily PA, as assessed by the PASIPD and accelerometers, was found to independently contribute to 10-12% of the variance of the Physical Composite Score of the SF-36. No significant relationship was found between PA and the Mental Composite Score of the SF-36.The functional ability of the participants was found to be correlated to the amount of daily PA (r = 0.33 - 0.67, p Conclusion The results suggest that daily PA is associated with better HRQL (as assessed by the Physical composite score of the SF-36 for people living with stroke. Daily PA should be encouraged to potentially increase HRQL. Accelerometers in conjunction with a self-report questionnaire may provide important measures of PA which can be monitored and modified, and potentially influence HRQL.

Cognitive benefits of last night's sleep: daily variations in children's sleep behavior are related to working memory fluctuations.

Science.gov (United States)

Könen, Tanja; Dirk, Judith; Schmiedek, Florian

2015-02-01

Recent studies have suggested substantial fluctuations of cognitive performance in adults both across and within days, but very little is known about such fluctuations in children. Children's sleep behavior might have an important influence on their daily cognitive resources, but so far this has not been investigated in terms of naturally occurring within-person variations in children's everyday lives. In an ambulatory assessment study, 110 elementary school children (8-11 years old) completed sleep items and working memory tasks on smartphones several times per day in school and at home for 4 weeks. Parents provided general information about the children and their sleep habits. We identified substantial fluctuations in the children's daily cognitive performance, self-reported nightly sleep quality, time in bed, and daytime tiredness. All three facets were predictive of performance fluctuations in children's school and daily life. Sleep quality and time in bed were predictive of performance in the morning, and afternoon performance was related to current tiredness. The children with a lower average performance level showed a higher within-person coupling between morning performance and sleep quality. Our findings contribute important insights regarding a potential source of performance fluctuations in children. The effect of varying cognitive resources should be investigated further because it might impact children's daily social, emotional, and learning-related functioning. Theories about children's cognitive and educational development should consider fluctuations on micro-longitudinal scales (e.g., day-to-day) to identify possible mechanisms behind long-term changes. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

A computational cognitive model of self-efficacy and daily adherence in mHealth.

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Pirolli, Peter

2016-12-01

Mobile health (mHealth) applications provide an excellent opportunity for collecting rich, fine-grained data necessary for understanding and predicting day-to-day health behavior change dynamics. A computational predictive model (ACT-R-DStress) is presented and fit to individual daily adherence in 28-day mHealth exercise programs. The ACT-R-DStress model refines the psychological construct of self-efficacy. To explain and predict the dynamics of self-efficacy and predict individual performance of targeted behaviors, the self-efficacy construct is implemented as a theory-based neurocognitive simulation of the interaction of behavioral goals, memories of past experiences, and behavioral performance.

Temperature based daily incoming solar radiation modeling based on gene expression programming, neuro-fuzzy and neural network computing techniques.

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Landeras, G.; López, J. J.; Kisi, O.; Shiri, J.

2012-04-01

The correct observation/estimation of surface incoming solar radiation (RS) is very important for many agricultural, meteorological and hydrological related applications. While most weather stations are provided with sensors for air temperature detection, the presence of sensors necessary for the detection of solar radiation is not so habitual and the data quality provided by them is sometimes poor. In these cases it is necessary to estimate this variable. Temperature based modeling procedures are reported in this study for estimating daily incoming solar radiation by using Gene Expression Programming (GEP) for the first time, and other artificial intelligence models such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Traditional temperature based solar radiation equations were also included in this study and compared with artificial intelligence based approaches. Root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) RMSE-based skill score (SSRMSE), MAE-based skill score (SSMAE) and r2 criterion of Nash and Sutcliffe criteria were used to assess the models' performances. An ANN (a four-input multilayer perceptron with ten neurons in the hidden layer) presented the best performance among the studied models (2.93 MJ m-2 d-1 of RMSE). A four-input ANFIS model revealed as an interesting alternative to ANNs (3.14 MJ m-2 d-1 of RMSE). Very limited number of studies has been done on estimation of solar radiation based on ANFIS, and the present one demonstrated the ability of ANFIS to model solar radiation based on temperatures and extraterrestrial radiation. By the way this study demonstrated, for the first time, the ability of GEP models to model solar radiation based on daily atmospheric variables. Despite the accuracy of GEP models was slightly lower than the ANFIS and ANN models the genetic programming models (i.e., GEP) are superior to other artificial intelligence models in giving a simple explicit equation for the

Daily Discharge Estimation in Talar River Using Lazy Learning Model

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Zahra Abdollahi

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction: River discharge as one of the most important hydrology factors has a vital role in physical, ecological, social and economic processes. So, accurate and reliable prediction and estimation of river discharge have been widely considered by many researchers in different fields such as surface water management, design of hydraulic structures, flood control and ecological studies in spetialand temporal scale. Therefore, in last decades different techniques for short-term and long-term estimation of hourly, daily, monthly and annual discharge have been developed for many years. However, short-term estimation models are less sophisticated and more accurate.Various global and local algorithms have been widely used to estimate hydrologic variables. The current study effort to use Lazy Learning approach to evaluate the adequacy of input data in order to follow the variation of discharge and also simulate next-day discharge in Talar River in KasilianBasinwhere is located in north of Iran with an area of 66.75 km2. Lazy learning is a local linear modelling approach in which generalization beyond the training data is delayed until a query is made to the system, as opposed to in eager learning, where the system tries to generalize the training data before receiving queries Materials and Methods: The current study was conducted in Kasilian Basin, where is located in north of Iran with an area of 66.75 km2. The main river of this basin joins to Talar River near Valicbon village and then exit from the watershed. Hydrometric station located near Valicbon village is equipped with Parshall flume and Limnogragh which can record river discharge of about 20 cubic meters per second.In this study, daily data of discharge recorded in Valicbon station related to 2002 to 2012 was used to estimate the discharge of 19 September 2012. The mean annual discharge of considered river was also calculated by using available data about 0.441 cubic meters per second. To

Never, non-daily, and daily smoking status and progression to daily cigarette smoking as correlates of major depressive episode in a national sample of youth: Results from the National Survey of Drug Use and Health 2013 to 2015.

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Cohn, Amy M

2018-09-01

Cigarette smoking is associated with depression, and new initiates who progress more quickly to daily smoking may be at enhanced risk. In a nationally representative sample of youth, this study examined the association between daily, non-daily, and never smoking with past-year and lifetime major depressive episode (MDE) and, among daily smokers, whether faster progression to daily smoking was associated with increased MDE risk. Data were from n = 44,921 youth aged 12-17 in the 2013-2015 National Survey on Drug Use and Health. Weighted adjusted multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine the association of smoking status (daily, non-daily, never) with lifetime and past-year MDE, and the association between progression from cigarette trial to daily smoking with MDE outcomes among daily smokers. Daily and non-daily smokers had similar rates of lifetime and past-year MDE; rates of MDE were approximately 50% lower among never smokers. Compared to never smokers, adjusted models showed that non-daily smokers had a higher risk of past-year and lifetime MDE, while daily smokers had a higher risk of past-year but not lifetime MDE. Daily smoking youth who progressed more quickly from cigarette trial to daily use had an increased risk of both lifetime and past-year MDE. Prevention programs should target factors associated with the shift from cigarette experimentation to regular use to curb deleterious consequences of use. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Potential future changes in the characteristics of daily precipitation in Europe simulated by the HIRHAM regional climate model

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May, Wilhelm [Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen (Denmark)

2008-05-15

In this study the potential future changes in various aspects of daily precipitation events over Europe as a consequence of the anticipated future increase in the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are investigated. This is done by comparing two 3-member ensembles of simulations with the HIRHAM regional climate model for the period 1961-1990 and 2071-2100, respectively. Daily precipitation events are characterized by their frequency and intensity, and heavy precipitation events are described via 30-year return levels of daily precipitation. Further, extended periods with and without rainfall (wet and dry spells) are studied, considering their frequency and length as well as the average and extreme amounts of precipitation accumulated during wet spells, the latter again described via 30-year return levels. The simulations show marked changes in the characteristics of daily precipitation in Europe due to the anticipated greenhouse warming. In winter, for instance, the frequency of wet days is enhanced over most of the European continent except for the region on the Norwegian west coast and the Mediterranean region. The changes in the intensity and the 30-year return level of daily precipitation are characterized by a similar pattern except for central Europe with a tendency of decreased 30-year return levels and increased precipitation intensity. In summer, on the other hand, the frequency of wet days is decreased over most of Europe except for northern Scandinavia and the Baltic Sea region. In contrast, the precipitation intensity and the 30-year return level of daily precipitation are increased over entire Scandinavia, central and eastern Europe. The changes in the 30-year return level of daily precipitation are generally stronger than the corresponding changes in the precipitation intensity but can have opposite signs in some regions. Also the distribution of wet days is changed in the future. During summer, for instance, both the frequency and the length

Selecting the optimal method to calculate daily global reference potential evaporation from CFSR reanalysis data for application in a hydrological model study

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F. C. Sperna Weiland

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Potential evaporation (PET is one of the main inputs of hydrological models. Yet, there is limited consensus on which PET equation is most applicable in hydrological climate impact assessments. In this study six different methods to derive global scale reference PET daily time series from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR data are compared: Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor and original and re-calibrated versions of the Hargreaves and Blaney-Criddle method. The calculated PET time series are (1 evaluated against global monthly Penman-Monteith PET time series calculated from CRU data and (2 tested on their usability for modeling of global discharge cycles.

A major finding is that for part of the investigated basins the selection of a PET method may have only a minor influence on the resulting river flow. Within the hydrological model used in this study the bias related to the PET method tends to decrease while going from PET, AET and runoff to discharge calculations. However, the performance of individual PET methods appears to be spatially variable, which stresses the necessity to select the most accurate and spatially stable PET method. The lowest root mean squared differences and the least significant deviations (95% significance level between monthly CFSR derived PET time series and CRU derived PET were obtained for a cell-specific re-calibrated Blaney-Criddle equation. However, results show that this re-calibrated form is likely to be unstable under changing climate conditions and less reliable for the calculation of daily time series. Although often recommended, the Penman-Monteith equation applied to the CFSR data did not outperform the other methods in a evaluation against PET derived with the Penman-Monteith equation from CRU data. In arid regions (e.g. Sahara, central Australia, US deserts, the equation resulted in relatively low PET values and, consequently, led to relatively high discharge values for dry basins (e

A low free-parameter stochastic model of daily Forbush decrease indices

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Patra, Sankar Narayan; Bhattacharya, Gautam; Panja, Subhash Chandra; Ghosh, Koushik

2014-01-01

Forbush decrease is a rapid decrease in the observed galactic cosmic ray intensity pattern occurring after a coronal mass ejection. In the present paper we have analyzed the daily Forbush decrease indices from January, 1967 to December, 2003 generated in IZMIRAN, Russia. First the entire indices have been smoothened and next we have made an attempt to fit a suitable stochastic model for the present time series by means of a necessary number of process parameters. The study reveals that the present time series is governed by a stationary autoregressive process of order 2 with a trace of white noise. Under the consideration of the present model we have shown that chaos is not expected in the present time series which opens up the possibility of validation of its forecasting (both short-term and long-term) as well as its multi-periodic behavior.

Framework for determining airport daily departure and arrival delay thresholds: statistical modelling approach.

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Wesonga, Ronald; Nabugoomu, Fabian

2016-01-01

The study derives a framework for assessing airport efficiency through evaluating optimal arrival and departure delay thresholds. Assumptions of airport efficiency measurements, though based upon minimum numeric values such as 15 min of turnaround time, cannot be extrapolated to determine proportions of delay-days of an airport. This study explored the concept of delay threshold to determine the proportion of delay-days as an expansion of the theory of delay and our previous work. Data-driven approach using statistical modelling was employed to a limited set of determinants of daily delay at an airport. For the purpose of testing the efficacy of the threshold levels, operational data for Entebbe International Airport were used as a case study. Findings show differences in the proportions of delay at departure (μ = 0.499; 95 % CI = 0.023) and arrival (μ = 0.363; 95 % CI = 0.022). Multivariate logistic model confirmed an optimal daily departure and arrival delay threshold of 60 % for the airport given the four probable thresholds {50, 60, 70, 80}. The decision for the threshold value was based on the number of significant determinants, the goodness of fit statistics based on the Wald test and the area under the receiver operating curves. These findings propose a modelling framework to generate relevant information for the Air Traffic Management relevant in planning and measurement of airport operational efficiency.

Maintenance of heartburn relief after step-down from twice-daily proton pump inhibitor to once-daily dexlansoprazole modified release.

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Fass, Ronnie; Inadomi, John; Han, Cong; Mody, Reema; O'Neil, Janet; Perez, M Claudia

2012-03-01

Many patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) take a proton pump inhibitor (PPI) twice daily to control symptoms. Once-daily dexlansoprazole modified release (MR) has a dual-delayed release formulation, making it attractive for step-down management of patients whose symptoms are well controlled on twice-daily PPIs. We investigated whether step-down to once-daily dexlansoprazole controls heartburn in patients with GERD who were receiving twice-daily PPI therapy. Patients 18 years and older taking a twice-daily PPI for symptom control were enrolled (n = 178) in a single-blind, multicenter study; 163 patients completed the study and 142 patients met criteria for the efficacy analysis. During the 6-week screening and treatment periods, patients recorded the presence of heartburn symptoms twice daily in electronic diaries. Patients' heartburn was considered well controlled if they had an average of 1 symptom or fewer per week during the last 4 weeks of screening and treatment. After screening, qualified patients were switched to masked dexlansoprazole MR 30 mg and placebo for 6 weeks. The primary efficacy end point was the proportion of patients whose heartburn remained well controlled after step-down. GERD-related symptoms and quality of life (QOL) also were evaluated using the Patient Assessment of Upper Gastrointestinal Disorders Symptom Severity Index (PAGI-SYM) and the PAGI-QOL questionnaires, respectively. After step-down to once-daily dexlansoprazole MR 30 mg, heartburn remained well controlled in 88% of patients (125 of 142). These patients were able to maintain their GERD-related symptom severity and QOL, indicated by marginal changes in the PAGI-SYM and PAGI-QOL total and subscale scores, respectively. Most patients with GERD who take twice-daily PPI to control heartburn are able to successfully step down to once-daily dexlansoprazole 30 mg. Copyright © 2012 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Patterns of daily energy management at work: relations to employee well-being and job characteristics.

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Kinnunen, Ulla; Feldt, Taru; de Bloom, Jessica; Korpela, Kalevi

2015-11-01

The present study aimed at identifying subgroups of employees with similar daily energy management strategies at work and finding out whether well-being indicators and job characteristics differ between these subgroups. The study was conducted by electronic questionnaire among 1122 Finnish employees. First, subgroups of employees with unique and distinctive patterns of energy management strategies were identified using latent profile analysis. Second, differences in well-being indicators and job characteristics between the subgroups were investigated by means of ANCOVA. Four subgroups (i.e., patterns) were identified and named: Passives (n = 371), Averages (n = 390), Casuals (n = 272) and Actives (n = 89). Passives used all three (i.e., work-related, private micro-break and physical micro-break) strategies less frequently than other subgroups, whereas Actives used work-related and physical energy management strategies more frequently than other subgroups. Averages used all strategies on an average level. Casuals' use of all strategies came close to that of Actives, notably in a shared low use of private micro-break strategies. Active and Casual patterns maintained vigor and vitality. Autonomy and social support at work played a significant role in providing opportunities for the use of beneficial energy management strategies. Autonomy and support at work seem to support active and casual use of daily energy management, which is important in staying energized throughout the working day.

Validation of daily increments periodicity in otoliths of spotted gar

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Snow, Richard A.; Long, James M.; Frenette, Bryan D.

2017-01-01

Accurate age and growth information is essential in successful management of fish populations and for understanding early life history. We validated daily increment deposition, including the timing of first ring formation, for spotted gar (Lepisosteus oculatus) through 127 days post hatch. Fry were produced from hatchery-spawned specimens, and up to 10 individuals per week were sacrificed and their otoliths (sagitta, lapillus, and asteriscus) removed for daily age estimation. Daily age estimates for all three otolith pairs were significantly related to known age. The strongest relationships existed for measurements from the sagitta (r2 = 0.98) and the lapillus (r2 = 0.99) with asteriscus (r2 = 0.95) the lowest. All age prediction models resulted in a slope near unity, indicating that ring deposition occurred approximately daily. Initiation of ring formation varied among otolith types, with deposition beginning 3, 7, and 9 days for the sagitta, lapillus, and asteriscus, respectively. Results of this study suggested that otoliths are useful to estimate daily age of spotted gar juveniles; these data may be used to back calculate hatch dates, estimate early growth rates, and correlate with environmental factor that influence spawning in wild populations. is early life history information will be valuable in better understanding the ecology of this species. 

BIOMAP A Daily Time Step, Mechanistic Model for the Study of Ecosystem Dynamics

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Wells, J. R.; Neilson, R. P.; Drapek, R. J.; Pitts, B. S.

2010-12-01

BIOMAP simulates competition between two Plant Functional Types (PFT) at any given point in the conterminous U.S. using a time series of daily temperature (mean, minimum, maximum), precipitation, humidity, light and nutrients, with PFT-specific rooting within a multi-layer soil. The model employs a 2-layer canopy biophysics, Farquhar photosynthesis, the Beer-Lambert Law for light attenuation and a mechanistic soil hydrology. In essence, BIOMAP is a re-built version of the biogeochemistry model, BIOME-BGC, into the form of the MAPSS biogeography model. Specific enhancements are: 1) the 2-layer canopy biophysics of Dolman (1993); 2) the unique MAPSS-based hydrology, which incorporates canopy evaporation, snow dynamics, infiltration and saturated and unsaturated percolation with ‘fast’ flow and base flow and a ‘tunable aquifer’ capacity, a metaphor of D’Arcy’s Law; and, 3) a unique MAPSS-based stomatal conductance algorithm, which simultaneously incorporates vapor pressure and soil water potential constraints, based on physiological information and many other improvements. Over small domains the PFTs can be parameterized as individual species to investigate fundamental vs. potential niche theory; while, at more coarse scales the PFTs can be rendered as more general functional groups. Since all of the model processes are intrinsically leaf to plot scale (physiology to PFT competition), it essentially has no ‘intrinsic’ scale and can be implemented on a grid of any size, taking on the characteristics defined by the homogeneous climate of each grid cell. Currently, the model is implemented on the VEMAP 1/2 degree, daily grid over the conterminous U.S. Although both the thermal and water-limited ecotones are dynamic, following climate variability, the PFT distributions remain fixed. Thus, the model is currently being fitted with a ‘reproduction niche’ to allow full dynamic operation as a Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM). While global simulations

A Daily Diary Approach to the Examination of Chronic Stress, Daily Hassles and Safety Perceptions in Hospital Nursing.

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Louch, Gemma; O'Hara, Jane; Gardner, Peter; O'Connor, Daryl B

2017-12-01

Stress is a significant concern for individuals and organisations. Few studies have explored stress, burnout and patient safety in hospital nursing on a daily basis at the individual level. This study aimed to examine the effects of chronic stress and daily hassles on safety perceptions, the effect of chronic stress on daily hassles experienced and chronic stress as a potential moderator. Utilising a daily diary design, 83 UK hospital nurses completed three end-of-shift diaries, yielding 324 person days. Hassles, safety perceptions and workplace cognitive failure were measured daily, and a baseline questionnaire included a measure of chronic stress. Hierarchical multivariate linear modelling was used to analyse the data. Higher chronic stress was associated with more daily hassles, poorer perceptions of safety and being less able to practise safely, but not more workplace cognitive failure. Reporting more daily hassles was associated with poorer perceptions of safety, being less able to practise safely and more workplace cognitive failure. Chronic stress did not moderate daily associations. The hassles reported illustrate the wide-ranging hassles nurses experienced. The findings demonstrate, in addition to chronic stress, the importance of daily hassles for nurses' perceptions of safety and the hassles experienced by hospital nurses on a daily basis. Nurses perceive chronic stress and daily hassles to contribute to their perceptions of safety. Measuring the number of daily hassles experienced could proactively highlight when patient safety threats may arise, and as a result, interventions could usefully focus on the management of daily hassles.

The role of perfectionism in daily self-esteem, attachment, and negative affect.

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Dunkley, David M; Berg, Jody-Lynn; Zuroff, David C

2012-06-01

This study of university students (64 men, 99 women) examined the role of self-critical (SC) and personal standards (PS) higher order dimensions of perfectionism in daily self-esteem, attachment, and negative affect. Participants completed questionnaires at the end of the day for 7 consecutive days. Trait and situational influences were found in the daily reports of self-esteem, attachment, and affect. In contrast to PS perfectionism, SC perfectionism was strongly related to aggregated daily reports of low self-esteem, attachment fears (fear of closeness, fear of dependency, fear of loss), and negative affect as well as instability indexes of daily self-esteem, attachment, and negative affect. Multilevel modeling indicated that both SC and PS perfectionists were emotionally reactive to decreases in self-esteem, whereas only SC perfectionists were emotionally reactive to increases in fear of closeness with others. These results demonstrate the dispositional and moderating influences of perfectionism dimensions on daily self-esteem, attachment, and negative affect. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Personality © 2011, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Daily movements of female white-tailed deer relative to parturition and breeding.

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Gino J. D' Angelo; Christopher E. Comer; John C. Kilgo; Cory D. Drennan; David A. Osborn; Karl V. Miller

2005-10-01

Abstract: To assess how white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) herd demographics influence reproductive behaviors, we examined 24-h diel movements of female whitetailed deer relative to parturition and breeding in a low-density population with a near even sex ratio at the Savannah River Site (SRS), South Carolina. We conducted a series of intensive, 24-h radio-tracking periods of 13 females during spring and fall 2002. We compared daily range (ha), rate of travel (m/h), and distance between extreme daily locations (m), among the periods of pre-parturition and post-parturition and pre-, peak-, and post-rut. From pre-parturition to post-parturition, we observed decreases in diel range size (–38.2%), distance between extreme diel locations (–17.0%), and diel rate of travel (–18.2%). Diel range size, distance between extreme diel locations, and diel rate of travel during the pre-rut and rut exceeded those observed during post-rut. We further identified substantial increases in mobility during 12 24-h diel periods for eight females during our fall monitoring. Our data suggest that female white-tailed deer reduce mobility post-fawning following exaggerated movements during pre-parturition. Furthermore, despite a near equal sex ratio, estrous does may be required to actively seek potential mates due to low population density.

Ecological Interventionist Causal Models in Psychosis: Targeting Psychological Mechanisms in Daily Life.

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Reininghaus, Ulrich; Depp, Colin A; Myin-Germeys, Inez

2016-03-01

Integrated models of psychotic disorders have posited a number of putative psychological mechanisms that may contribute to the development of psychotic symptoms, but it is only recently that a modest amount of experience sampling research has provided evidence on their role in daily life, outside the research laboratory. A number of methodological challenges remain in evaluating specificity of potential causal links between a given psychological mechanism and psychosis outcomes in a systematic fashion, capitalizing on longitudinal data to investigate temporal ordering. In this article, we argue for testing ecological interventionist causal models that draw on real world and real-time delivered, ecological momentary interventions for generating evidence on several causal criteria (association, time order, and direction/sole plausibility) under real-world conditions, while maximizing generalizability to social contexts and experiences in heterogeneous populations. Specifically, this approach tests whether ecological momentary interventions can (1) modify a putative mechanism and (2) produce changes in the mechanism that lead to sustainable changes in intended psychosis outcomes in individuals' daily lives. Future research using this approach will provide translational evidence on the active ingredients of mobile health and in-person interventions that promote sustained effectiveness of ecological momentary interventions and, thereby, contribute to ongoing efforts that seek to enhance effectiveness of psychological interventions under real-world conditions. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Growing Pains: The Impact of Disaster-Related and Daily Stressors on the Psychological and Psychosocial Functioning of Youth in Sri Lanka

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Fernando, Gaithri A.; Miller, Kenneth E.; Berger, Dale E.

2010-01-01

Daily stressors may mediate the relation between exposure to disaster-related stressors and psychological and psychosocial distress among youth in disaster-affected countries. A sample of 427 Sri Lankan Sinhalese, Tamil, and Muslim youth (mean age = 14.5) completed a survey with measures of exposure to disaster-related stressors and daily…

Let it be and keep on going! Acceptance and daily occupational well-being in relation to negative work events.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuba, Katharina; Scheibe, Susanne

2017-01-01

[Correction Notice: An Erratum for this article was reported in Vol 22(1) of Journal of Occupational Health Psychology (see record 2016-25216-001). In the article, there were errors in the Participants subsection in the Method section. The last three sentences should read "Job tenure ranged from less than 1 year to 32 years, with an average of 8.83 years (SD 7.80). Participants interacted with clients on average 5.44 hr a day (SD 2.41). The mean working time was 7.36 hr per day (SD 1.91)."] Negative work events can diminish daily occupational well-being, yet the degree to which they do so depends on the way in which people deal with their emotions. The aim of the current study was to examine the role of acceptance in the link between daily negative work events and occupational well-being. We hypothesized that acceptance would be associated with better daily occupational well-being, operationalized as low end-of-day negative emotions and fatigue, and high work engagement. Furthermore, we predicted that acceptance would buffer the adverse impact of negative work events on daily well-being. A microlongitudinal study across 10 work days was carried out with 92 employees of the health care sector, yielding a total of 832 daily observations. As expected, acceptance was associated with lower end-of-day negative emotions and fatigue (though there was no association with work engagement) across the 10-day period. Furthermore, acceptance moderated the effect of negative event occurrence on daily well-being: Highly accepting employees experienced less increase in negative emotions and less reduction in work engagement (though comparable end-of-day fatigue) on days with negative work events, relative to days without negative work events, than did less accepting employees. These findings highlight affective, resource-saving, and motivational benefits of acceptance for daily occupational well-being and demonstrate that acceptance is associated with enhanced resilience to daily

Chronic job burnout and daily functioning: A theoretical analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arnold B. Bakker

2014-12-01

Full Text Available In this article, we discuss the individual employee's role in the development of his/her job burnout. We review the antecedents and consequences of burnout, and propose a model with chronic burnout as a moderator of daily functioning in the workplace. Specifically, we argue that chronic burnout strengthens the loss cycle of daily job demands, daily exhaustion, and daily self-undermining. Additionally, we argue that chronic burnout weakens the gain cycle of daily job resources, daily work engagement, and daily job crafting. We conclude that employees with high levels of burnout need help in structurally changing their working conditions and health status.

Extracting aerobic system dynamics during unsupervised activities of daily living using wearable sensor machine learning models.

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Beltrame, Thomas; Amelard, Robert; Wong, Alexander; Hughson, Richard L

2018-02-01

Physical activity levels are related through algorithms to the energetic demand, with no information regarding the integrity of the multiple physiological systems involved in the energetic supply. Longitudinal analysis of the oxygen uptake (V̇o 2 ) by wearable sensors in realistic settings might permit development of a practical tool for the study of the longitudinal aerobic system dynamics (i.e., V̇o 2 kinetics). This study evaluated aerobic system dynamics based on predicted V̇o 2 data obtained from wearable sensors during unsupervised activities of daily living (μADL). Thirteen healthy men performed a laboratory-controlled moderate exercise protocol and were monitored for ≈6 h/day for 4 days (μADL data). Variables derived from hip accelerometer (ACC HIP ), heart rate monitor, and respiratory bands during μADL were extracted and processed by a validated random forest regression model to predict V̇o 2 . The aerobic system analysis was based on the frequency-domain analysis of ACC HIP and predicted V̇o 2 data obtained during μADL. Optimal samples for frequency domain analysis (constrained to ≤0.01 Hz) were selected when ACC HIP was higher than 0.05 g at a given frequency (i.e., participants were active). The temporal characteristics of predicted V̇o 2 data during μADL correlated with the temporal characteristics of measured V̇o 2 data during laboratory-controlled protocol ([Formula: see text] = 0.82, P system dynamics can be investigated during unsupervised activities of daily living by wearable sensors. Although speculative, these algorithms have the potential to be incorporated into wearable systems for early detection of changes in health status in realistic environments by detecting changes in aerobic response dynamics. NEW & NOTEWORTHY The early detection of subclinical aerobic system impairments might be indicative of impaired physiological reserves that impact the capacity for physical activity. This study is the first to use wearable

Estimation of daily global solar irradiation by coupling ground measurements of bright sunshine hours to satellite imagery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ener Rusen, Selmin; Hammer, Annette; Akinoglu, Bulent G.

2013-01-01

In this work, the current version of the satellite-based HELIOSAT method and ground-based linear Ångström–Prescott type relations are used in combination. The first approach is based on the use of a correlation between daily bright sunshine hours (s) and cloud index (n). In the second approach a new correlation is proposed between daily solar irradiation and daily data of s and n which is based on a physical parameterization. The performances of the proposed two combined models are tested against conventional methods. We test the use of obtained correlation coefficients for nearby locations. Our results show that the use of sunshine duration together with the cloud index is quite satisfactory in the estimation of daily horizontal global solar irradiation. We propose to use the new approaches to estimate daily global irradiation when the bright sunshine hours data is available for the location of interest, provided that some regression coefficients are determined using the data of a nearby station. In addition, if surface data for a close location does not exist then it is recommended to use satellite models like HELIOSAT or the new approaches instead the Ångström type models. - Highlights: • Satellite imagery together with surface measurements in solar radiation estimation. • The new coupled and conventional models (satellite and ground-based) are analyzed. • New models result in highly accurate estimation of daily global solar irradiation

Daily life activity routine discovery in hemiparetic rehabilitation patients using topic models.

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Seiter, J; Derungs, A; Schuster-Amft, C; Amft, O; Tröster, G

2015-01-01

Monitoring natural behavior and activity routines of hemiparetic rehabilitation patients across the day can provide valuable progress information for therapists and patients and contribute to an optimized rehabilitation process. In particular, continuous patient monitoring could add type, frequency and duration of daily life activity routines and hence complement standard clinical scores that are assessed for particular tasks only. Machine learning methods have been applied to infer activity routines from sensor data. However, supervised methods require activity annotations to build recognition models and thus require extensive patient supervision. Discovery methods, including topic models could provide patient routine information and deal with variability in activity and movement performance across patients. Topic models have been used to discover characteristic activity routine patterns of healthy individuals using activity primitives recognized from supervised sensor data. Yet, the applicability of topic models for hemiparetic rehabilitation patients and techniques to derive activity primitives without supervision needs to be addressed. We investigate, 1) whether a topic model-based activity routine discovery framework can infer activity routines of rehabilitation patients from wearable motion sensor data. 2) We compare the performance of our topic model-based activity routine discovery using rule-based and clustering-based activity vocabulary. We analyze the activity routine discovery in a dataset recorded with 11 hemiparetic rehabilitation patients during up to ten full recording days per individual in an ambulatory daycare rehabilitation center using wearable motion sensors attached to both wrists and the non-affected thigh. We introduce and compare rule-based and clustering-based activity vocabulary to process statistical and frequency acceleration features to activity words. Activity words were used for activity routine pattern discovery using topic models

Estimation of daily reference evapotranspiration (ETo) using artificial intelligence methods: Offering a new approach for lagged ETo data-based modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Mehdizadeh, Saeid

2018-04-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is considered as a key factor in hydrological and climatological studies, agricultural water management, irrigation scheduling, etc. It can be directly measured using lysimeters. Moreover, other methods such as empirical equations and artificial intelligence methods can be used to model ET. In the recent years, artificial intelligence methods have been widely utilized to estimate reference evapotranspiration (ETo). In the present study, local and external performances of multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and gene expression programming (GEP) were assessed for estimating daily ETo. For this aim, daily weather data of six stations with different climates in Iran, namely Urmia and Tabriz (semi-arid), Isfahan and Shiraz (arid), Yazd and Zahedan (hyper-arid) were employed during 2000-2014. Two types of input patterns consisting of weather data-based and lagged ETo data-based scenarios were considered to develop the models. Four statistical indicators including root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R2), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to check the accuracy of models. The local performance of models revealed that the MARS and GEP approaches have the capability to estimate daily ETo using the meteorological parameters and the lagged ETo data as inputs. Nevertheless, the MARS had the best performance in the weather data-based scenarios. On the other hand, considerable differences were not observed in the models' accuracy for the lagged ETo data-based scenarios. In the innovation of this study, novel hybrid models were proposed in the lagged ETo data-based scenarios through combination of MARS and GEP models with autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) time series model. It was concluded that the proposed novel models named MARS-ARCH and GEP-ARCH improved the performance of ETo modeling compared to the single MARS and GEP. In addition, the external

Better functional mobility in community-dwelling elderly is related to D-hormone serum levels and to daily calcium intake.

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Dukas, L; Staehelin, H B; Schacht, E; Bischoff, H A

2005-01-01

The influence of calcitropic hormones on functional mobility has been studied in vitamin D (calcidiol) deficient elderly or elderly with a history of falls, however, data in community-dwelling independent vitamin D replete elderly are missing. We therefore assessed in an observational survey the association of calcidiol (25(OH)D3) and calcitriol (D-hormone / 1,25(OH)2D3) status as well as of daily calcium intake on functional mobility in older subjects We evaluated 192 women and 188 men, aged superior 70 years and living independently. Average Timed-up and go test (TUG-test) in seconds was taken as measure of functional mobility. Calcidiol and D-hormone serum concentrations and daily calcium intake were studied in multivariate controlled linear regression models with TUG-test performance as the dependent variable and/or as dichotomous variables (deficient vs. non-deficient, above vs. below the median, respectively). Subjects with low D-hormone serum concentrations took significantly more time to perform the TUG-test (low = 7.70s +/- 2.52 SD ; high = 6.70s +/- 1.29 SD; p = 0.004). In the linear multivariate controlled regression model increased D-hormone serum concentrations predicted better TUG-test performance (estimate -0.0007, p = 0.044). Participants with a calcium intake of > or =512 mg/day were significantly faster to perform the TUG-test than participants with a daily calcium intake of better TUG-test performance in both models were: male gender, less comorbid conditions, younger age, lower BMI, iPTH serum levels and creatinine clearance. Calcidiol serum levels were not associated with TUG-test performance. Higher D-hormone status and a calcium intake of > or =512 mg/day in community-dwelling independent older persons are significant determinants of better functional mobility. Therefore, to ensure optimal functional mobility, the care of older persons should address correction of D-hormone deficiency and increasing daily calcium intake.

Negative Aging Attitudes Predict Greater Reactivity to Daily Stressors in Older Adults.

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Bellingtier, Jennifer A; Neupert, Shevaun D

2016-08-03

In order to understand conflicting findings regarding the emotional reactions of older adults to daily stressors, we examined the possibility that negative aging attitudes could function as an important individual differences factor related to stressor reactivity. Using a daily dairy design, we examined the aging attitudes of 43 older adults reporting on 380 total days. Participants reported their aging attitudes on Day 1, followed by their stressor exposure and negative affect on Days 2-9. Covariates included age, gender, education, and personality. Using multilevel modeling, our results suggest that individuals with more positive aging attitudes report consistent levels of affect across study days regardless of stressors, whereas those with more negative aging attitudes reported increased emotional reactivity to daily stressors. Positive aging attitudes may serve as a resource that helps buffer reactions to daily stressors. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily), Version 3

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily) dataset integrates daily climate observations from approximately 30 different data sources. Version 3...

The Combined Effects of Daily Stressors and Major Life Events on Daily Subjective Ages.

Science.gov (United States)

Bellingtier, Jennifer A; Neupert, Shevaun D; Kotter-Grühn, Dana

2017-07-01

Stressors may be a contributing factor in determining how old an individual feels, looks, or would like to be. Currently, little research has been devoted to understanding the relationship between stressors and subjective age in older adults. We focus on the combined impact of major life-event stressors and daily stressors on multiple indicators of subjective age: felt age, ideal age, and look age. Furthermore, we examine the process by which daily stressors relate to subjective ages by testing whether positive affect, control, and negative affect mediate this relationship. Using a daily-diary design, the current study measured older adults' (60-96 years old) stressors, subjective ages, personal control, and affect. Felt, ideal, and look ages each demonstrated a unique pattern of interactions between daily stressors and major life-event stressors. Furthermore, our findings suggest that on the daily level, the relationship between stressors and felt age is mediated by negative affect but not by control and positive affect. Findings indicate the need to consider the broader contextual picture of stressors, as well as their differential impact on multiple indicators of subjective age. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Using synthetic data to evaluate multiple regression and principal component analyses for statistical modeling of daily building energy consumption

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reddy, T.A. (Energy Systems Lab., Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)); Claridge, D.E. (Energy Systems Lab., Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States))

1994-01-01

Multiple regression modeling of monitored building energy use data is often faulted as a reliable means of predicting energy use on the grounds that multicollinearity between the regressor variables can lead both to improper interpretation of the relative importance of the various physical regressor parameters and to a model with unstable regressor coefficients. Principal component analysis (PCA) has the potential to overcome such drawbacks. While a few case studies have already attempted to apply this technique to building energy data, the objectives of this study were to make a broader evaluation of PCA and multiple regression analysis (MRA) and to establish guidelines under which one approach is preferable to the other. Four geographic locations in the US with different climatic conditions were selected and synthetic data sequence representative of daily energy use in large institutional buildings were generated in each location using a linear model with outdoor temperature, outdoor specific humidity and solar radiation as the three regression variables. MRA and PCA approaches were then applied to these data sets and their relative performances were compared. Conditions under which PCA seems to perform better than MRA were identified and preliminary recommendations on the use of either modeling approach formulated. (orig.)

Psychologic processes in daily life with chronic whiplash: relations of posttraumatic stress symptoms and fear-of-pain to hourly pain and uptime.

Science.gov (United States)

Sterling, Michele; Chadwick, Benjamin J

2010-09-01

Recent models of the relationship between posttraumatic stress and whiplash pain suggest that psychological stress relating to a motor vehicle crash may influence pain perception. The mechanisms of this relationship may be through more direct, psychological pathways, or through factors proposed by the fear-avoidance models of chronic pain. This study sought to investigate the relative contribution of fear-of-pain and trauma symptomatology to daily pain and time spent in an upright posture (uptime) in chronic whiplash-associated disorder (WAD). Hourly electronic-diary reports were used to explore the within-day relationship of psychological trauma symptoms and fear-of-pain to same-hour and next-hour pain reports and next-hour uptime (measured by accelerometers) in 32 individuals with a chronic WAD. Within-person effects were analyzed for 329 diary entries using multilevel modeling with fixed slopes and random intercepts. Reports of trauma-related hyperarousal were associated with greater same-hour pain, and this relationship was mediated by fear-of-pain. Fear-of-pain and uptime were independently associated with reports of increased next-hour pain (controlling for first-order serial autocorrelation). Fear-of-pain was unrelated to next-hour uptime, but trauma-related avoidance symptoms were associated with reduced uptime. This study supports the relationship between psychological trauma responses and pain, suggesting behavioral (avoidance) pathways and effects on pain perception through fear-of-pain. These findings reinforce the need to evaluate traumatic stress as a factor in recovery from WAD.

Performance Evaluation of Linear (ARMA and Threshold Nonlinear (TAR Time Series Models in Daily River Flow Modeling (Case Study: Upstream Basin Rivers of Zarrineh Roud Dam

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farshad Fathian

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Time series models are generally categorized as a data-driven method or mathematically-based method. These models are known as one of the most important tools in modeling and forecasting of hydrological processes, which are used to design and scientific management of water resources projects. On the other hand, a better understanding of the river flow process is vital for appropriate streamflow modeling and forecasting. One of the main concerns of hydrological time series modeling is whether the hydrologic variable is governed by the linear or nonlinear models through time. Although the linear time series models have been widely applied in hydrology research, there has been some recent increasing interest in the application of nonlinear time series approaches. The threshold autoregressive (TAR method is frequently applied in modeling the mean (first order moment of financial and economic time series. Thise type of the model has not received considerable attention yet from the hydrological community. The main purposes of this paper are to analyze and to discuss stochastic modeling of daily river flow time series of the study area using linear (such as ARMA: autoregressive integrated moving average and non-linear (such as two- and three- regime TAR models. Material and Methods: The study area has constituted itself of four sub-basins namely, Saghez Chai, Jighato Chai, Khorkhoreh Chai and Sarogh Chai from west to east, respectively, which discharge water into the Zarrineh Roud dam reservoir. River flow time series of 6 hydro-gauge stations located on upstream basin rivers of Zarrineh Roud dam (located in the southern part of Urmia Lake basin were considered to model purposes. All the data series used here to start from January 1, 1997, and ends until December 31, 2011. In this study, the daily river flow data from January 01 1997 to December 31 2009 (13 years were chosen for calibration and data for January 01 2010 to December 31 2011

Relation of Depression with the Outonomy Elderly Into Activity Life of Daily Living at Timbangan Indralaya

OpenAIRE

Muharyani, Putri Widita

2010-01-01

Background : Depression is considered as dangeousr for a psychological and physical health, because it was causing for a function discharge of kognitif, emosional and productivities, especially unautonomy of elderly into fill activities life in everytime. This research is done to know the relation of depression with the autonomy into activity of daily Lliving at Kelurahan Timbangan Indralaya. Method : The method was using into this research it was from the analytic of desain Cross Sectional a...

Seasonal & Daily Amazon Column CO2 & CO Observations from Ground & Space Used to Evaluate Tropical Ecosystem Models

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Dubey, M. K.; Parker, H. A.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wunch, D.; Jacobson, A. R.; Kawa, S. R.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Basu, S.; O'Dell, C.; Frankenberg, C.; Michalak, A. M.; Baker, D. F.; Christofferson, B.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Saleska, S. R.; De Araujo, A. C.; Miller, J. B.

2016-12-01

The Amazon basin stores 150-200 PgC, exchanges 18 PgC with the atmosphere every year and has taken up 0.42-0.65 PgC/y over the past two decades. Despite its global significance, the response of the tropical carbon cycle to climate variability and change is ill constrained as evidenced by the large negative and positive feedbacks in future climate simulations. The complex interplay of radiation, water and ecosystem phenology remains unresolved in current tropical ecosystem models. We use high frequency regional scale TCCON observations of column CO2, CO and CH4 near Manaus, Brazil that began in October 2014 to understand the aforementioned interplay of processes in regulating biosphere-atmosphere exchange. We observe a robust daily column CO2 uptake of about 2 ppm (4 ppm to 0.5 ppm) over 8 hours and evaluate how it changes as we transition to the dry season. Back-trajectory calculations show that the daily CO2 uptake footprint is terrestrial and influenced by the heterogeneity of the Amazon rain forests. The column CO falls from above 120 ppb to below 80 ppb as we transition from the biomass burning to wet seasons. The daily mean column CO2 rises by 3 ppm from October through June. Removal of biomass burning, secular CO2 increase and variations from transport (by Carbon tracker simulations) implies an increase of 2.3 ppm results from tropical biospheric processes (respiration and photosynthesis). This is consistent with ground-based remote sensing and eddy flux observations that indicate that leaf development and demography drives the tropical carbon cycle in regions that are not water limited and is not considered in current models. We compare our observations with output from 7 CO2 inversion transport models with assimilated meteorology and find that while 5 models reproduce the CO2 seasonal cycle all of them under predict the daily drawdown of CO2 by a factor of 3. This indicates that the CO2 flux partitioning between photosynthesis and respiration is incorrect

Relations of Early Motor Skills on Age and Socialization, Communication, and Daily Living in Young Children With Developmental Disabilities.

Science.gov (United States)

MacDonald, Megan; Ross, Samantha; McIntyre, Laura Lee; Tepfer, Amanda

2017-04-01

Young children with developmental disabilities experience known deficits in salient child behaviors, such as social behaviors, communication, and aspects of daily living, behaviors that generally improve with chronological age. The purpose of this study was to examine the mediating effects of motor skills on relations of age and salient child behaviors in a group of young children with developmental disabilities, thus tapping into the potential influences of motor skills in the development of salient child behaviors. One hundred thirteen young children with developmental disabilities participated in this study. Independent mediation analysis, with gender as a moderator between the mediating and outcome variable, indicated that motor skills meditated relations between age and socialization, communication, and daily living skills in young male children with developmental disabilities, but not female participants. Findings suggest motor skill content needs to be considered in combination with other child behaviors commonly focused on in early intervention.

The effect of personality on daily life emotional processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Komulainen, Emma; Meskanen, Katarina; Lipsanen, Jari; Lahti, Jari Marko; Jylhä, Pekka; Melartin, Tarja; Wichers, Marieke; Isometsä, Erkki; Ekelund, Jesper

2014-01-01

Personality features are associated with individual differences in daily emotional life, such as negative and positive affectivity, affect variability and affect reactivity. The existing literature is somewhat mixed and inconclusive about the nature of these associations. The aim of this study was to shed light on what personality features represent in daily life by investigating the effect of the Five Factor traits on different daily emotional processes using an ecologically valid method. The Experience Sampling Method was used to collect repeated reports of daily affect and experiences from 104 healthy university students during one week of their normal lives. Personality traits of the Five Factor model were assessed using NEO Five Factor Inventory. Hierarchical linear modeling was used to analyze the effect of the personality traits on daily emotional processes. Neuroticism predicted higher negative and lower positive affect, higher affect variability, more negative subjective evaluations of daily incidents, and higher reactivity to stressors. Conscientiousness, by contrast, predicted lower average level, variability, and reactivity of negative affect. Agreeableness was associated with higher positive and lower negative affect, lower variability of sadness, and more positive subjective evaluations of daily incidents. Extraversion predicted higher positive affect and more positive subjective evaluations of daily activities. Openness had no effect on average level of affect, but predicted higher reactivity to daily stressors. The results show that the personality features independently predict different aspects of daily emotional processes. Neuroticism was associated with all of the processes. Identifying these processes can help us to better understand individual differences in daily emotional life.

[Patient reported outcome of tyrosine kinase inhibitor related side effects and their impact on daily life in Chinese patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in the chronic phase].

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, L; Wang, H B; Jiang, Q

2016-11-14

Objective: To explore the impact of patient reported outcome of tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) related side effects on daily life in Chinese patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) in the chronic phase (CP). Methods: From May to November in 2014, anonymous questionnaires were distributed to adult CML patients who were receiving TKI treatment in China. The impact of TKI-related side effects on daily life were assessed by the score of 1 (no impact) to 5 (high impact) from patient self-report. Results: Data from 731 respondents in the CP who reported the score of the impact of TKI-related side effects on daily life were collected. 407 (56%) were male. The median age was 41 years (range, 18 to 88 years). 560 (77%) started TKI treatment within 1 year after diagnosis. With a median treatment duration of 3 years (range, effects were edema ( n =323, 44% ), fatigue ( n =277, 38% ), gastrointestinal disorders ( n =235, 32% ), skin color changes ( n =142, 19% ), muscle cramps ( n =137, 19% ), rash ( n =105, 14% ), hepatic function abnormalities ( n =91, 12%), weight gain ( n =86, 12%), and cytopenia ( n =59, 8%). Multivariate analyses showed that TKI treatment duration effects on daily life in 218 (30%)respondents (1 score). 375 (51%)respondents reported their daily life were slightly or moderately decreased (2 or 3 score), while 138 (19%) significantly decreased (4 or 5 score). Multivariate analyses showed that female, ≥40 years old, use of generic TKI, TKI treatment duration negative effect on their daily life. When taking TKI related side-effects into considderation, secondary school and below, use of generic TKI, TKI treatment duration negative effect on their daily life. Conclusion: Edema, fatigue, gastrointestinal disorders, rash, skin color changes and hepatic function abnormalities were common TKI-related side effects and influenced CML patients' daily life in China. In addition, female, older age, lower education level, use of generic TKI and shorter TKI

Treatment of streptococcal pharyngitis with once-daily compared with twice-daily amoxicillin: a noninferiority trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Clegg, Herbert W; Ryan, Amy G; Dallas, Steven D; Kaplan, Edward L; Johnson, Dwight R; Norton, H James; Roddey, Oliver F; Martin, Edward S; Swetenburg, Raymond L; Koonce, Elizabeth W; Felkner, Mary M; Giftos, P Michael

2006-09-01

Two relatively small previous studies comparing once-daily amoxicillin with conventional therapy for group A streptococcal (GAS) pharyngitis reported similar rates of bacteriologic success for each treatment group. The purpose of this study was to further evaluate once-daily amoxicillin for GAS pharyngitis in a larger study. In a single pediatric practice, from October through May for 2 consecutive years (2001-2003), we recruited children 3 to 18 years of age who had symptoms and signs suggestive of GAS pharyngitis. Patients with a positive rapid test for GAS were stratified by weight (or=40 kg) and then randomly assigned to receive once-daily (750 mg or 1000 mg) or twice-daily (2 doses of 375 mg or 500 mg) amoxicillin for 10 days. We determined bacteriologic failure rates for GAS in the pharynx from subsequent swabs taken at 14 to 21 (visit 2) and 28 to 35 (visit 3) days after treatment initiation. We conducted a randomized, controlled, investigator-blinded, noninferiority trial to evaluate whether amoxicillin given once daily would have a bacteriologic failure rate no worse than that of amoxicillin given twice daily within a prespecified margin of 10%. GAS isolates were characterized to distinguish bacteriologic failures from new acquisitions. Adverse events were described and adherence was evaluated by review of returned daily logs and dosage bottles. Of 2139 potential study patients during the 2-year period, we enrolled 652 patients, 326 into each treatment group. Children in the 2 groups were comparable with respect to all demographic and clinical characteristics except that children <40 kg more often presented with rash in each treatment group. At visit 2, failure rates were 20.1% (59 of 294) for the once-daily group and 15.5% (46 of 296) for the twice-daily group (difference, 4.53%; 90% confidence interval [CI], -0.6 to 9.7). At visit 3, failure rates were 2.8% (6 of 216) for the once-daily group and 7.1% (16 of 225) for the twice-daily group (difference, -4

Daily sitting time and all-cause mortality: a meta-analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Josephine Y Chau

Full Text Available To quantify the association between daily total sitting and all-cause mortality risk and to examine dose-response relationships with and without adjustment for moderate-to-vigorous physical activity.Studies published from 1989 to January 2013 were identified via searches of multiple databases, reference lists of systematic reviews on sitting and health, and from authors' personal literature databases. We included prospective cohort studies that had total daily sitting time as a quantitative exposure variable, all-cause mortality as the outcome and reported estimates of relative risk, or odds ratios or hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Two authors independently extracted the data and summary estimates of associations were computed using random effects models.Six studies were included, involving data from 595,086 adults and 29,162 deaths over 3,565,569 person-years of follow-up. Study participants were mainly female, middle-aged or older adults from high-income countries; mean study quality score was 12/15 points. Associations between daily total sitting time and all-cause mortality were not linear. With physical activity adjustment, the spline model of best fit had dose-response HRs of 1.00 (95% CI: 0.98-1.03, 1.02 (95% CI: 0.99-1.05 and 1.05 (95% CI: 1.02-1.08 for every 1-hour increase in sitting time in intervals between 0-3, >3-7 and >7 h/day total sitting, respectively. This model estimated a 34% higher mortality risk for adults sitting 10 h/day, after taking physical activity into account. The overall weighted population attributable fraction for all-cause mortality for total daily sitting time was 5.9%, after adjusting for physical activity.Higher amounts of daily total sitting time are associated with greater risk of all-cause mortality and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity appears to attenuate the hazardous association. These findings provide a starting point for identifying a threshold on which to base clinical and public

Daily Radiation Budget of the Baltic Sea Surface from Satellite Data

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Zapadka Tomasz

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Recently developed system for assessment of radiation budget for the Baltic Sea has been presented and verified. The system utilizes data from various sources: satellite, model and in situ measurements. It has been developed within the SatBałtyk project (Satellite Monitoring of the Baltic Sea Environment - www.satbaltyk.eu where the energy radiation budget is one of the key element. The SatBałtyk system generates daily maps of the all components of radiation budget on every day basis. We show the scheme of making daily maps, applied algorithms and empirical data collection within the system. An empirical verification of the system has been carried out based on empirical data collected on the oil rig placed on the Baltic Sea. This verification concerned all the components of the surface radiation budget. The average daily NET products are estimated with statistical error ca. 13 Wm-2. The biggest absolute statistical error is for LWd component and equals 14 Wm-2. The relative error in relation to the average annual values for whole Baltic is the biggest for SWu and reaches 25%. All estimated components have correlation coefficient above 0.91.

Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, Jing-Cheng; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Yuefei; Zhang, Hua; Li, Zhong; Chen, Qiuwen

2015-01-01

Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. - Highlights: • We develop an improved hydrologic model considering the scaling effect of rainfall. • A

Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Han, Jing-Cheng [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Huang, Guohe, E-mail: huang@iseis.org [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Huang, Yuefei [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang, Hua [College of Science and Engineering, Texas A& M University — Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412-5797 (United States); Li, Zhong [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Chen, Qiuwen [Center for Eco-Environmental Research, Nanjing Hydraulics Research Institute, Nanjing 210029 (China)

2015-08-15

Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. - Highlights: • We develop an improved hydrologic model considering the scaling effect of rainfall. • A

Comparison of health care resource utilization and costs among patients with GERD on once-daily or twice-daily proton pump inhibitor therapy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mody R

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Reema Mody,1 Debra Eisenberg,2 Likun Hou,2 Siddhesh Kamat,2 Joseph Singer,2 Lauren B Gerson3 1Takeda Pharmaceuticals International Inc, Deerfield, IL, 2HealthCore Inc, Wilmington, DE, 3Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA Background: The purpose of this study was to assess differences in health care resource utilization and costs associated with once-daily and twice-daily proton pump inhibitor (PPI therapy. Most patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD achieve symptom control on once-daily PPI therapy, but approximately 20%–30% require twice-daily dosing. Methods: Patients were ≥18 years of age with at least one medical claim for GERD and at least two PPI claims from HealthCore's Integrated Research Database (HIRDSM during 2004–2009. Patients were continuously eligible for 12 months before and after the index date (date of first PPI claim. Based on PPI dosing throughout the post-index period (quantity of medication dispensed/number of days supply, patients were classified as once-daily (dose ≤ 1.5 pills per day or twice-daily (≥1.5 PPI users. Results: The study cohort included 248,386 patients with GERD (mean age 52.8 ± 13.93 years, 56% females of whom 90% were once-daily and 10% were twice-daily PPI users. The Deyo-Charlson Comorbidity Index for once-daily and twice-daily PPI users was 0.70 ± 1.37 and 0.89 ± 1.54, respectively (P < 0.05. More once-daily patients had claims for Barrett's esophagus (5% versus 2%, P < 0.0001 than twice-daily patients. Post-index, higher proportions of twice-daily patients had at least one GERD-related inpatient visit (7% versus 5%, outpatient visit (60% versus 49%, and office visit (48% versus 38% versus once-daily patients (P < 0.0001. Mean total GERD-related health care costs were $2065 ± $6636 versus $3749 ± $11,081 for once-daily and twice-daily PPI users, respectively (P < 0.0001. Conclusion: Patients receiving twice-daily PPI therapy were likely to have more

Difference in the relation between daily mortality and air pollution among elderly and all-ages populations in southwestern France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Filleul, Laurent; Le Tertre, A.L.; Baldi, Isabelle; Tessier, J.-F.

2004-01-01

Numerous time series studies around the world have reported an association between mortality and particulate air pollution. We investigated the distribution over time of effect of air pollution on short-term mortality among subjects aged 65 years and older and of all ages in Bordeaux, France. Statistical analysis was based on generalized additive models using either loess or penalized spline smoothing. Our study found a significant positive association between air pollution and all nonaccidental mortality and specific mortality in both group of population (all ages and elderly) with a greater effect among the elderly, particularly for respiratory mortality. For this case, we observed a greater effect according to distributed lag models (0-5 days) among the elderly, with an estimated increase of 9.2% in the daily number of deaths for 10 μg/m 3 of daily black smoke [95% CI, 3.4-15.3]. These results contribute to the efforts made to understand how air pollution promotes adverse health effects and to identify susceptible subgroups

DAILY RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELLING BY NEURAL NETWORKS ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

K. Benzineb, M. Remaoun

2016-09-01

Sep 1, 2016 ... The hydrologic behaviour modelling of w. Journal of ... i Ouahrane's basin from rainfall-runoff relation which is non-linea networks ... will allow checking efficiency of formal neural networks for flows simulation in semi-arid zone.

Probabilistic daily ILI syndromic surveillance with a spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ta-Chien Chan

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: For daily syndromic surveillance to be effective, an efficient and sensible algorithm would be expected to detect aberrations in influenza illness, and alert public health workers prior to any impending epidemic. This detection or alert surely contains uncertainty, and thus should be evaluated with a proper probabilistic measure. However, traditional monitoring mechanisms simply provide a binary alert, failing to adequately address this uncertainty. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Based on the Bayesian posterior probability of influenza-like illness (ILI visits, the intensity of outbreak can be directly assessed. The numbers of daily emergency room ILI visits at five community hospitals in Taipei City during 2006-2007 were collected and fitted with a Bayesian hierarchical model containing meteorological factors such as temperature and vapor pressure, spatial interaction with conditional autoregressive structure, weekend and holiday effects, seasonality factors, and previous ILI visits. The proposed algorithm recommends an alert for action if the posterior probability is larger than 70%. External data from January to February of 2008 were retained for validation. The decision rule detects successfully the peak in the validation period. When comparing the posterior probability evaluation with the modified Cusum method, results show that the proposed method is able to detect the signals 1-2 days prior to the rise of ILI visits. CONCLUSIONS: This Bayesian hierarchical model not only constitutes a dynamic surveillance system but also constructs a stochastic evaluation of the need to call for alert. The monitoring mechanism provides earlier detection as well as a complementary tool for current surveillance programs.

Environmental physiology: effects of energy-related pollutants on daily cycles of energy metabolism, motor activity, and thermoregulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sacher, G.A.; Rosenberg, R.S.; Duffy, P.H.; Obermeyer, W.; Russell, J.J.

1979-01-01

This section contains a summary of research on the effects of energy-related pollutants on daily cycles of energy metabolism, motor activity, and thermoregulation. So far, mice have been exposed to fast neutron-gamma radiation or to the chemical effluents of an atmospheric pressure experimental fluidized-bed combustor. The physiological parameters measured included: O 2 consumption; CO 2 production; motor activity; and deep body temperatures

Drinking-to-cope motivation and negative mood-drinking contingencies in a daily diary study of college students.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Hara, Ross E; Armeli, Stephen; Tennen, Howard

2014-07-01

This study examined whether global drinking-to-cope (DTC) motivation moderates negative mood-drinking contingencies and negative mood-motivation contingencies at the daily level of analysis. Data came from a daily diary study of college student drinking (N = 1,636; 53% female; Mage = 19.2 years). Fixed-interval models tested whether global DTC motivation moderated relations between daily negative mood and that evening's drinking and episodic DTC. Time-to-drink models examined whether global DTC motivation moderated the effects of weekly negative mood on the immediacy of drinking and DTC in the weekly cycle. More evening drinking occurred on days characterized by relatively higher anxiety or anger, and students were more likely to report DTC on days when they experienced greater sadness. However, only the daily Anxiety × Global DTC Motivation interaction for number of drinks consumed was consistent with hypotheses. Moreover, students reported drinking, heavy drinking, and DTC earlier in weeks characterized by relatively higher anxiety or anger, but no hypothesized interactions with global DTC motivation were found. RESULTS indicate that negative mood is associated with increased levels of drinking and drinking for coping reasons among college students but that the strength of these relations does not differ by global levels of DTC motivation. These findings raise the possibility that global DTC measures are insufficient for examining within-person DTC processes. Further implications of these results are discussed, including future directions that may determine the circumstances under which, and for whom, DTC occurs.

Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan; Hanel, M.

2018-01-01

Roč. 132, 1-2 (2018), s. 515-527 ISSN 0177-798X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : sub-daily precipitation * regional climate models * extremes * Czech Republic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 2.640, year: 2016 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-017-2102-0

The impact of daily stress on adolescents' depressed mood: The role of social support seeking through Facebook

OpenAIRE

Frison, Eline; Eggermont, Steven

2015-01-01

This study examined relationships among daily stress (i.e., school- and family-related stress), social support seeking through Facebook, perceived social support through Facebook, and depressed mood among adolescents (N = 910). Structural equation modeling showed that daily stress positively predicted adolescents’ seeking of social support through Facebook. In addition, when social support was sought on Facebook and subsequently perceived, social support seeking through Facebook decreased a...

Estimating daily surface NO2 concentrations from satellite data - a case study over Hong Kong using land use regression models

Science.gov (United States)

Anand, Jasdeep S.; Monks, Paul S.

2017-07-01

Land use regression (LUR) models have been used in epidemiology to determine the fine-scale spatial variation in air pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in cities and larger regions. However, they are often limited in their temporal resolution, which may potentially be rectified by employing the synoptic coverage provided by satellite measurements. In this work a mixed-effects LUR model is developed to model daily surface NO2 concentrations over the Hong Kong SAR during the period 2005-2015. In situ measurements from the Hong Kong Air Quality Monitoring Network, along with tropospheric vertical column density (VCD) data from the OMI, GOME-2A, and SCIAMACHY satellite instruments were combined with fine-scale land use parameters to provide the spatiotemporal information necessary to predict daily surface concentrations. Cross-validation with the in situ data shows that the mixed-effects LUR model using OMI data has a high predictive power (adj. R2 = 0. 84), especially when compared with surface concentrations derived using the MACC-II reanalysis model dataset (adj. R2 = 0. 11). Time series analysis shows no statistically significant trend in NO2 concentrations during 2005-2015, despite a reported decline in NOx emissions. This study demonstrates the utility in combining satellite data with LUR models to derive daily maps of ambient surface NO2 for use in exposure studies.

Daily job demands and employee work engagement: The role of daily transformational leadership behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Breevaart, Kimberley; Bakker, Arnold B

2018-07-01

Using job demands-resources (JD-R) theory, the present study integrates the challenge stressor-hindrance stressor framework and leadership theory to investigate the relationship between daily transformational leadership behavior and employee work engagement. We hypothesized that daily transformational leadership behavior (a) sustains employee work engagement on days characterized by high challenge job demands, and (b) protects work engagement on days characterized by high hindrance job demands. Teachers filled out a short online questionnaire at the end of each workday during a 2-week period (N = 271 × 5.68 days = 1539). Results of latent moderated structural equation modeling showed that teachers' daily challenge demands (workload and cognitive demands) had a positive relationship with work engagement on the days transformational leadership was high (vs. low). In addition, teachers' daily hindrance demands (role-conflict, but not family to work conflict) had a negative relationship with work engagement on the days transformational leadership was low (vs. high). These findings show that the function of transformational leadership behavior changes from day to day, and depends on the type of job demand. We discuss the practical and theoretical implications of these findings. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Intent to Quit among Daily and Non-Daily College Student Smokers

Science.gov (United States)

Pinsker, E. A.; Berg, C. J.; Nehl, E. J.; Prokhorov, A. V.; Buchanan, T. S.; Ahluwalia, J. S.

2013-01-01

Given the high prevalence of young adult smoking, we examined (i) psychosocial factors and substance use among college students representing five smoking patterns and histories [non-smokers, quitters, native non-daily smokers (i.e. never daily smokers), converted non-daily smokers (i.e. former daily smokers) and daily smokers] and (ii) smoking…

Research on Daily Objects Detection Based on Deep Neural Network

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Sheng; Zhao, Kun

2018-03-01

With the rapid development of deep learning, great breakthroughs have been made in the field of object detection. In this article, the deep learning algorithm is applied to the detection of daily objects, and some progress has been made in this direction. Compared with traditional object detection methods, the daily objects detection method based on deep learning is faster and more accurate. The main research work of this article: 1. collect a small data set of daily objects; 2. in the TensorFlow framework to build different models of object detection, and use this data set training model; 3. the training process and effect of the model are improved by fine-tuning the model parameters.

Pain-related impairment of daily activities after thoracic surgery: a questionnaire validation.

Science.gov (United States)

Ringsted, Thomas K; Wildgaard, Kim; Kreiner, Svend; Kehlet, Henrik

2013-09-01

Persistent postoperative pain is an acknowledged entity that reduces daily activities. Evaluation of the post-thoracotomy pain syndrome (PTPS) is often measured using traditional pain scales without in-depth questions on pain impairment. Thus, the purpose was to create a procedure-specific questionnaire for assessment of functional impairment due to PTPS. Activities were obtained from the literature supplemented by interviews with patients and surgeons. The questionnaire was validated using the Rasch model in order to describe an underlying pain impairment scale. Four of 17 questions were redundant. The remaining 13 questions from low to intensive activity described functional impairment following persistent pain from thoracotomy and video-assisted thoracic surgery (VATS). No evidence for differential item functioning for gender, age or differences between open or VATS, were found. A generalized log-linear Rasch model including local dependence was constructed. Though local dependence influenced reliability, the test-retest reliability estimated under the log-linear Rasch model was high (0.88-0.96). Correlation with items from the Disability of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (quick) questionnaire supported validity (γ = 0.46, P impairment questionnaire measured 2 qualitatively different pain dimensions although highly correlated (γ = 0.76). This study presents method, results and validation of a new unidimensional scale measuring procedure specific functional impairment due to PTPS following open surgery and VATS. Procedure specific tools such as this could provide important outcomes measures for future trials on persistent postsurgical pain states allowing better assessment of interventions (250).

Daily modes of South Asian summer monsoon variability in the NCEP climate forecast system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Achuthavarier, Deepthi; Krishnamurthy, V. [George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA (United States); Institute of Global Environment and Society, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

2011-05-15

The leading modes of daily variability of the Indian summer monsoon in the climate forecast system (CFS), a coupled general circulation model, of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) are examined. The space-time structures of the daily modes are obtained by applying multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) on the daily anomalies of rainfall. Relations of the daily modes to intraseasonal and interannual variability of the monsoon are investigated. The CFS has three intraseasonal oscillations with periods around 106, 57 and 30 days with a combined variance of 7%. The 106-day mode has spatial structure and propagation features similar to the northeastward propagating 45-day mode in the observations except for its longer period. The 57-day mode, despite being in the same time scale as of the observations has poor eastward propagation. The 30-day mode is northwestward propagating and is similar to its observational counterpart. The 106-day mode is specific to the model and should not be mistaken for a new scale of variability in observations. The dominant interannual signal is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and, unlike in the observations, has maximum variance in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Although the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode was not obtained as a separate mode in the rainfall, the ENSO signal has good correlations with the dipole variability, which, therefore, indicates the dominance of ENSO in the model. The interannual variability is largely determined by the ENSO signal over the regions where it has maximum variance. The interannual variability of the intraseasonal oscillations is smaller in comparison. (orig.)

Daily Nigerian peak load forecasting using artificial neural network ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A daily peak load forecasting technique that uses artificial neural network with seasonal indices is presented in this paper. A neural network of relatively smaller size than the main prediction network is used to predict the daily peak load for a period of one year over which the actual daily load data are available using one ...

Prediction of daily UV-A from daily global solar irradiance using the Ktuv and Kt clearness index; Prediccion de valores diarios de radiacion solar UV-A (295-385 nm) utilizando los indices de transparencia K{sub t}uv y K{sub t} y tecnicas de resdes neuronales artificiales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barbero, F. J.; Lopez, G.; Batlles, F. J.

2004-07-01

In this work we compare two methodologies in order to estimate daily UV-A from daily global solar irradiance measurements. The first one is based on standard statistical procedures for relating the daily clearness indices Ktuv and Kt and the relative air mass, whereas the second methodology is based on the novel techniques of artificial neuronal networks. In both cases, we employed data recorded at the radiometric station located at the University of Almeria between 1993 and 1996. Both models are checked against data for years not previously used. (Author)

Building spatio-temporal database model based on ontological approach using relational database environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahmood, N.; Burney, S.M.A.

2017-01-01

Everything in this world is encapsulated by space and time fence. Our daily life activities are utterly linked and related with other objects in vicinity. Therefore, a strong relationship exist with our current location, time (including past, present and future) and event through with we are moving as an object also affect our activities in life. Ontology development and its integration with database are vital for the true understanding of the complex systems involving both spatial and temporal dimensions. In this paper we propose a conceptual framework for building spatio-temporal database model based on ontological approach. We have used relational data model for modelling spatio-temporal data content and present our methodology with spatio-temporal ontological accepts and its transformation into spatio-temporal database model. We illustrate the implementation of our conceptual model through a case study related to cultivated land parcel used for agriculture to exhibit the spatio-temporal behaviour of agricultural land and related entities. Moreover, it provides a generic approach for designing spatiotemporal databases based on ontology. The proposed model is capable to understand the ontological and somehow epistemological commitments and to build spatio-temporal ontology and transform it into a spatio-temporal data model. Finally, we highlight the existing and future research challenges. (author)

Multi-location model for the estimation of the horizontal daily diffuse fraction of solar radiation in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bortolini, Marco; Gamberi, Mauro; Graziani, Alessandro; Manzini, Riccardo; Mora, Cristina

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► A multi-location model to estimate solar radiation components is proposed. ► Proposed model joins solar radiation data from several weather stations. ► Clearness index is correlated to the diffuse component through analytic functions. ► Third degree polynomial function best fits data for annual and seasonal scenarios. ► A quality control procedure and independent datasets strength model performances. - Abstract: Hourly and daily solar radiation data are crucial for the design of energy systems based on the solar source. Global irradiance, measured on the horizontal plane, is, generally, available from weather station databases. The direct and diffuse fractions are measured rarely and should be analytically calculated for many geographical locations. Aim of this paper is to present a multi-location model to estimate the expected profiles of the horizontal daily diffuse component of solar radiation. It focuses on the European (EU) geographical area joining data from 44 weather stations located in 11 countries. Data are collected by the World Radiation Data Centre (WRDC) between 2004 and 2007. Different analytic functions, correlating the daily diffuse fraction of solar radiation to the clearness index, are calculated and compared to outline the analytic expressions of the best fitting curves. The effect of seasonality on solar irradiance is considered developing summer and winter scenarios together with annual models. Similarities among the trends for the 4 years are, further, discussed. The most adopted statistical indices are used as key performance factors. Finally, data from three locations not included in the dataset considered for model development allow to test the proposed approach against an independent dataset. Obtained results show the effectiveness of adopting a multi-location approach to estimate solar radiation components on the horizontal surface instead of developing several single location models. This is due to the increase

High prevalence of daily and multi-site pain

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rathleff, Michael Skovdal; Roos, Ewa M.; Olesen, Jens Lykkegaard

2013-01-01

Daily pain and multi-site pain are both associated with reduction in work ability and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among adults. However, no population-based studies have yet investigated the prevalence of daily and multi-site pain among adolescents and how these are associated...... with respondent characteristics. The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence of self-reported daily and multi-site pain among adolescents aged 12--19 years and associations of almost daily pain and multi-site pain with respondent characteristics (sex, age, body mass index (BMI), HRQoL and sports...

Modelling nitrous oxide emissions from mown-grass and grain-cropping systems: Testing and sensitivity analysis of DailyDayCent using high frequency measurements.

Science.gov (United States)

Senapati, Nimai; Chabbi, Abad; Giostri, André Faé; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh B; Smith, Pete

2016-12-01

The DailyDayCent biogeochemical model was used to simulate nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from two contrasting agro-ecosystems viz. a mown-grassland and a grain-cropping system in France. Model performance was tested using high frequency measurements over three years; additionally a local sensitivity analysis was performed. Annual N 2 O emissions of 1.97 and 1.24kgNha -1 year -1 were simulated from mown-grassland and grain-cropland, respectively. Measured and simulated water filled pore space (r=0.86, ME=-2.5%) and soil temperature (r=0.96, ME=-0.63°C) at 10cm soil depth matched well in mown-grassland. The model predicted cumulative hay and crop production effectively. The model simulated soil mineral nitrogen (N) concentrations, particularly ammonium (NH 4 + ), reasonably, but the model significantly underestimated soil nitrate (NO 3 - ) concentration under both systems. In general, the model effectively simulated the dynamics and the magnitude of daily N 2 O flux over the whole experimental period in grain-cropland (r=0.16, ME=-0.81gNha -1 day -1 ), with reasonable agreement between measured and modelled N 2 O fluxes for the mown-grassland (r=0.63, ME=-0.65gNha -1 day -1 ). Our results indicate that DailyDayCent has potential for use as a tool for predicting overall N 2 O emissions in the study region. However, in-depth analysis shows some systematic discrepancies between measured and simulated N 2 O fluxes on a daily basis. The current exercise suggests that the DailyDayCent may need improvement, particularly the sub-module responsible for N transformations, for better simulating soil mineral N, especially soil NO 3 - concentration, and N 2 O flux on a daily basis. The sensitivity analysis shows that many factors such as climate change, N-fertilizer use, input uncertainty and parameter value could influence the simulation of N 2 O emissions. Sensitivity estimation also helped to identify critical parameters, which need careful estimation or site

Simulation And Forecasting of Daily Pm10 Concentrations Using Autoregressive Models In Kagithane Creek Valley, Istanbul

Science.gov (United States)

Ağaç, Kübra; Koçak, Kasım; Deniz, Ali

2015-04-01

A time series approach using autoregressive model (AR), moving average model (MA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) were used in this study to simulate and forecast daily PM10 concentrations in Kagithane Creek Valley, Istanbul. Hourly PM10 concentrations have been measured in Kagithane Creek Valley between 2010 and 2014 periods. Bosphorus divides the city in two parts as European and Asian parts. The historical part of the city takes place in Golden Horn. Our study area Kagithane Creek Valley is connected with this historical part. The study area is highly polluted because of its topographical structure and industrial activities. Also population density is extremely high in this site. The dispersion conditions are highly poor in this creek valley so it is necessary to calculate PM10 levels for air quality and human health. For given period there were some missing PM10 concentration values so to make an accurate calculations and to obtain exact results gap filling method was applied by Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). SSA is a new and efficient method for gap filling and it is an state-of-art modeling. SSA-MTM Toolkit was used for our study. SSA is considered as a noise reduction algorithm because it decomposes an original time series to trend (if exists), oscillatory and noise components by way of a singular value decomposition. The basic SSA algorithm has stages of decomposition and reconstruction. For given period daily and monthly PM10 concentrations were calculated and episodic periods are determined. Long term and short term PM10 concentrations were analyzed according to European Union (EU) standards. For simulation and forecasting of high level PM10 concentrations, meteorological data (wind speed, pressure and temperature) were used to see the relationship between daily PM10 concentrations. Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) was also applied to the data to see the periodicity and according to these periods models were built

A fuzzy recommendation system for daily water intake

OpenAIRE

Bin Dai; Rung-Ching Chen; Shun-Zhi Zhu; Chung-Yi Huang

2016-01-01

Water is one of the most important constituents of the human body. Daily consumption of water is thus necessary to protect human health. Daily water consumption is related to several factors such as age, ambient temperature, and degree of physical activity. These factors are generally difficult to express with exact numerical values. The main objective of this article is to build a daily water intake recommendation system using fuzzy methods. This system will use age, physical activity, and a...

Chronic and Daily Stressors Along With Negative Affect Interact to Predict Daily Tiredness.

Science.gov (United States)

Hartsell, Elizabeth N; Neupert, Shevaun D

2017-11-01

The present study examines the within-person relationship of daily stressors and tiredness and whether this depends on daily negative affect and individual differences in chronic stress. One hundred sixteen older adult participants were recruited via Amazon's Mechanical Turk for a 9-day daily diary study. Daily tiredness, daily stressors, and negative affect were measured each day, and chronic stress was measured at baseline. Daily stressors, daily negative affect, and chronic stress interacted to predict daily tiredness. People with high chronic stress who experienced an increase in daily negative affect were the most reactive to daily stressors in terms of experiencing an increase in daily tiredness. We also found that people with low levels of chronic stress were the most reactive to daily stressors when they experienced low levels of daily negative affect. Our results highlight the need for individualized and contextualized approaches to combating daily tiredness in older adults.

Unsupervised daily routine and activity discovery in smart homes.

Science.gov (United States)

Jie Yin; Qing Zhang; Karunanithi, Mohan

2015-08-01

The ability to accurately recognize daily activities of residents is a core premise of smart homes to assist with remote health monitoring. Most of the existing methods rely on a supervised model trained from a preselected and manually labeled set of activities, which are often time-consuming and costly to obtain in practice. In contrast, this paper presents an unsupervised method for discovering daily routines and activities for smart home residents. Our proposed method first uses a Markov chain to model a resident's locomotion patterns at different times of day and discover clusters of daily routines at the macro level. For each routine cluster, it then drills down to further discover room-level activities at the micro level. The automatic identification of daily routines and activities is useful for understanding indicators of functional decline of elderly people and suggesting timely interventions.

A Discrete-Time Model for Daily S&P500 Returns and Realized Variations: Jumps and Leverage Effects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bollerslev, Tim; Kretschmer, Uta; Pigorsch, Christian

We develop an empirically highly accurate discrete-time daily stochastic volatility model that explicitly distinguishes between the jump and continuoustime components of price movements using nonparametric realized variation and Bipower variation measures constructed from high-frequency intraday...... dependencies inherent in the high-frequency intraday data....

Probability Distribution and Projected Trends of Daily Precipitation in China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

CAO; Li-Ge; ZHONG; Jun; SU; Bu-Da; ZHAI; Jian-Qing; Macro; GEMMER

2013-01-01

Based on observed daily precipitation data of 540 stations and 3,839 gridded data from the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-Climate Limited-area Modeling(CCLM)for 1961–2000,the simulation ability of CCLM on daily precipitation in China is examined,and the variation of daily precipitation distribution pattern is revealed.By applying the probability distribution and extreme value theory to the projected daily precipitation(2011–2050)under SRES A1B scenario with CCLM,trends of daily precipitation series and daily precipitation extremes are analyzed.Results show that except for the western Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and South China,distribution patterns of the kurtosis and skewness calculated from the simulated and observed series are consistent with each other;their spatial correlation coefcients are above 0.75.The CCLM can well capture the distribution characteristics of daily precipitation over China.It is projected that in some parts of the Jianghuai region,central-eastern Northeast China and Inner Mongolia,the kurtosis and skewness will increase significantly,and precipitation extremes will increase during 2011–2050.The projected increase of maximum daily rainfall and longest non-precipitation period during flood season in the aforementioned regions,also show increasing trends of droughts and floods in the next 40 years.

Association of sarcopenia with swallowing problems, related to nutrition and activities of daily living of elderly individuals

OpenAIRE

Shiozu, Hiroyasu; Higashijima, Misako; Koga, Tomoshige

2015-01-01

[Purpose] The purpose of the current study was to clarify problems associated with swallowing, related to nutrition and activities of daily living (ADL), in elderly individuals with sarcopenia. [Subjects and Methods] Seventy-seven subjects were assigned to a sarcopenia or a non-sarcopenia group according to a definition used by the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People. Analyses were conducted including and excluding subjects with a central nervous system disorders in order to ...

Daily air quality forecast (gases and aerosols) over Switzerland. Modeling tool description and first results analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Couach, O.; Kirchner, F.; Porchet, P.; Balin, I.; Parlange, M.; Balin, D.

2009-04-01

Map3D, the acronym for "Mesoscale Air Pollution 3D modelling", was developed at the EFLUM laboratory (EPFL) and received an INNOGRANTS awards in Summer 2007 in order to move from a research phase to a professional product giving daily air quality forecast. It is intended to give an objective base for political decisions addressing the improvement of regional air quality. This tool is a permanent modelling system which provides daily forecast of the local meteorology and the air pollutant (gases and particles) concentrations. Map3D has been successfully developed and calculates each day at the EPFL site a three days air quality forecast over Europe and the Alps with 50 km and 15 km resolution, respectively (see http://map3d.epfl.ch). The Map3D user interface is a web-based application with a PostgreSQL database. It is written in object-oriented PHP5 on a MVC (Model-View-Controller) architecture. Our prediction system is operational since August 2008. A first validation of the calculations for Switzerland is performed for the period of August 2008 - January 2009 comparing the model results for O3, NO2 and particulates with the results of the Nabel measurements stations. The subject of air pollution regimes (NOX/VOC) and specific indicators application with the forecast will be also addressed.

Validation of China-wide interpolated daily climate variables from 1960 to 2011

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Wenping; Xu, Bing; Chen, Zhuoqi; Xia, Jiangzhou; Xu, Wenfang; Chen, Yang; Wu, Xiaoxu; Fu, Yang

2015-02-01

Temporally and spatially continuous meteorological variables are increasingly in demand to support many different types of applications related to climate studies. Using measurements from 600 climate stations, a thin-plate spline method was applied to generate daily gridded climate datasets for mean air temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation over China for the period 1961-2011. A comprehensive evaluation of interpolated climate was conducted at 150 independent validation sites. The results showed superior performance for most of the estimated variables. Except for wind speed, determination coefficients ( R 2) varied from 0.65 to 0.90, and interpolations showed high consistency with observations. Most of the estimated climate variables showed relatively consistent accuracy among all seasons according to the root mean square error, R 2, and relative predictive error. The interpolated data correctly predicted the occurrence of daily precipitation at validation sites with an accuracy of 83 %. Moreover, the interpolation data successfully explained the interannual variability trend for the eight meteorological variables at most validation sites. Consistent interannual variability trends were observed at 66-95 % of the sites for the eight meteorological variables. Accuracy in distinguishing extreme weather events differed substantially among the meteorological variables. The interpolated data identified extreme events for the three temperature variables, relative humidity, and sunshine duration with an accuracy ranging from 63 to 77 %. However, for wind speed, air pressure, and precipitation, the interpolation model correctly identified only 41, 48, and 58 % of extreme events, respectively. The validation indicates that the interpolations can be applied with high confidence for the three temperatures variables, as well as relative humidity and sunshine duration based

The Nature of Global Large-scale Sea Level Variability in Relation to Atmospheric Forcing: A Modeling Study

Science.gov (United States)

Fukumori, I.; Raghunath, R.; Fu, L. L.

1996-01-01

The relation between large-scale sea level variability and ocean circulation is studied using a numerical model. A global primitive equaiton model of the ocean is forced by daily winds and climatological heat fluxes corresponding to the period from January 1992 to February 1996. The physical nature of the temporal variability from periods of days to a year, are examined based on spectral analyses of model results and comparisons with satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements.

A Count Model to Study the Correlates of 60 Min of Daily Physical Activity in Portuguese Children

Science.gov (United States)

Borges, Alessandra; Gomes, Thayse Natacha; Santos, Daniel; Pereira, Sara; dos Santos, Fernanda K.; Chaves, Raquel; Katzmarzyk, Peter T.; Maia, José

2015-01-01

This study aimed to present data on Portuguese children (aged 9–11 years) complying with moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) guidelines, and to identify the importance of correlates from multiple domains associated with meeting the guidelines. Physical activity (PA) was objectively assessed by accelerometry throughout seven days on 777 children. A count model using Poisson regression was used to identify the best set of correlates that predicts the variability in meeting the guidelines. Only 3.1% of children met the recommended daily 60 min of MVPA for all seven days of the week. Further, the Cochrane–Armitage chi-square test indicated a linear and negative trend (p < 0.001) from none to all seven days of children complying with the guidelines. The count model explained 22% of the variance in meeting MVPA guidelines daily. Being a girl, having a higher BMI, belonging to families with higher income, sleeping more and taking greater time walking from home to a sporting venue significantly reduced the probability of meeting daily recommended MVPA across the seven days. Furthermore, compared to girls, increasing sleep time in boys increased their chances of compliance with the MVPA recommendations. These results reinforce the relevance of considering different covariates’ roles on PA compliance when designing efficient intervention strategies to promote healthy and active lifestyles in children. PMID:25730296

A Count Model to Study the Correlates of 60 Min of Daily Physical Activity in Portuguese Children

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alessandra Borges

2015-02-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to present data on Portuguese children (aged 9–11 years complying with moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA guidelines, and to identify the importance of correlates from multiple domains associated with meeting the guidelines. Physical activity (PA was objectively assessed by accelerometry throughout seven days on 777 children. A count model using Poisson regression was used to identify the best set of correlates that predicts the variability in meeting the guidelines. Only 3.1% of children met the recommended daily 60 min of MVPA for all seven days of the week. Further, the Cochrane–Armitage chi-square test indicated a linear and negative trend (p < 0.001 from none to all seven days of children complying with the guidelines. The count model explained 22% of the variance in meeting MVPA guidelines daily. Being a girl, having a higher BMI, belonging to families with higher income, sleeping more and taking greater time walking from home to a sporting venue significantly reduced the probability of meeting daily recommended MVPA across the seven days. Furthermore, compared to girls, increasing sleep time in boys increased their chances of compliance with the MVPA recommendations. These results reinforce the relevance of considering different covariates’ roles on PA compliance when designing efficient intervention strategies to promote healthy and active lifestyles in children.

A Bayesian modelling method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from global climate models and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Schepen, Andrew; Zhao, Tongtiegang; Wang, Quan J.; Robertson, David E.

2018-03-01

Rainfall forecasts are an integral part of hydrological forecasting systems at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In seasonal forecasting, global climate models (GCMs) are now the go-to source for rainfall forecasts. For hydrological applications however, GCM forecasts are often biased and unreliable in uncertainty spread, and calibration is therefore required before use. There are sophisticated statistical techniques for calibrating monthly and seasonal aggregations of the forecasts. However, calibration of seasonal forecasts at the daily time step typically uses very simple statistical methods or climate analogue methods. These methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve unbiased, reliable and coherent forecasts of daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. In this study, we propose and evaluate a Rainfall Post-Processing method for Seasonal forecasts (RPP-S), which is based on the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach for calibrating daily forecasts and the Schaake Shuffle for connecting the daily ensemble members of different lead times. We apply the method to post-process ACCESS-S forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments across Australia and for 12 initialisation dates. RPP-S significantly reduces bias in raw forecasts and improves both skill and reliability. RPP-S forecasts are also more skilful and reliable than forecasts derived from ACCESS-S forecasts that have been post-processed using quantile mapping, especially for monthly and seasonal accumulations. Several opportunities to improve the robustness and skill of RPP-S are identified. The new RPP-S post-processed forecasts will be used in ensemble sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow applications.

"Self-critical perfectionism, daily stress, and disclosure of daily emotional events": Correction to Richardson and Rice (2015).

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-01

Reports an error in "Self-critical perfectionism, daily stress, and disclosure of daily emotional events" by Clarissa M. E. Richardson and Kenneth G. Rice (Journal of Counseling Psychology, 2015[Oct], Vol 62[4], 694-702). In the article, the labels of the two lines in Figure 1 were inadvertently transposed. The dotted line should be labeled High SCP and the solid line should be labeled Low SCP. The correct version is present in the erratum. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2015-30890-001.) Although disclosure of stressful events can alleviate distress, self-critical perfectionism may pose an especially strong impediment to disclosure during stress, likely contributing to poorer psychological well-being. In the current study, after completing a measure of self-critical perfectionism (the Discrepancy subscale of the Almost Perfect Scale-Revised; Slaney, Rice, Mobley, Trippi, & Ashby, 2001), 396 undergraduates completed measures of stress and disclosure at the end of each day for 1 week. Consistent with hypotheses and previous research, multilevel modeling results indicated significant intraindividual coupling of daily stress and daily disclosure where disclosure was more likely when experiencing high stress than low stress. As hypothesized, Discrepancy moderated the relationship between daily stress and daily disclosure. Individuals higher in self-critical perfectionism (Discrepancy) were less likely to engage in disclosure under high stress, when disclosure is often most beneficial, than those with lower Discrepancy scores. These results have implications for understanding the role of stress and coping in the daily lives of self-critical perfectionists. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Large daily stock variation is associated with cardiovascular mortality in two cities of Guangdong, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Hualiang; Zhang, Yonghui; Xu, Yanjun; Liu, Tao; Xiao, Jianpeng; Luo, Yuan; Xu, Xiaojun; He, Yanhui; Ma, Wenjun

2013-01-01

The current study aimed to examine the effects of daily change of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index on cardiovascular mortality in Guangzhou and Taishan, China. Daily mortality and stock performance data during 2006-2010 were collected to construct the time series for the two cities. A distributed lag non-linear model was utilized to examine the effect of daily stock index changes on cardiovascular mortality after controlling for potential confounding factors. We observed a delayed non-linear effect of the stock index change on cardiovascular mortality: both rising and declining of the stock index were associated with increased cardiovascular deaths. In Guangzhou, the 15-25 lag days cumulative relative risk of an 800 index drop was 2.08 (95% CI: 1.38-3.14), and 2.38 (95% CI: 1.31-4.31) for an 800 stock index increase on the cardiovascular mortality, respectively. In Taishan, the cumulative relative risk over 15-25 days lag was 1.65 (95% CI: 1.13-2.42) for an 800 index drop and 2.08 (95% CI: 1.26-3.42) for an 800 index rising, respectively. Large ups and downs in daily stock index might be important predictor of cardiovascular mortality.

Manufacture of Daily Check Device and Efficiency Evaluation for Daily Q.A

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Chan Yong; Jae, Young Wan; Park, Heung Deuk; Lee, Jae Hee

2005-01-01

Daily Q.A is the important step which must be preceded in a radiation treatment. Specially, radiation output measurement and laser alignment, SSD indicator related to a patient set-up recurrence must be confirmed for a reasonable radiation treatment. Daily Q.A proceeds correctness and a prompt way, and needs an objective measurement basis. Manufacture of the device which can facilitate confirmation of output measurement and appliances check at one time was requested. Produced the phantom formal daily check device which can confirm a lot of appliances check (output measurement and laser alignment. field size, SSD indicator) with one time of set up at a time, and measurement observed a linear accelerator (4 machine) for four months and evaluated efficiency. We were able to confirm an laser alignment, field size, SSD indicator check at the same time, and out put measurement was possible with the same set up, so daily Q.A time was reduced, and we were able to confirm an objective basis about each item measurement. As a result of having measured for four months, output measurement within ±2%, and measured laser alignment, field size, SSD indicator in range within ±1 mm. We can enforce output measurement and appliances check conveniently, and time was reduced and was able to raise efficiency of business. We were able to bring a cost reduction by substitution expensive commercialized equipment. Further It is necessary to makes a product as strong and slight materials, and improve convenience of use.

Mathematical approach to the characterization of daily energy balance in autonomous photovoltaic solar systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Casares, F.J.; Lopez-Luque, R.; Posadillo, R.; Varo-Martinez, M.

2014-01-01

Sizing SAPV techniques try to assess the reliability of the system from the stochastic simulation of the energy balance. This stochastic simulation implies the generation, for an extended period of time, of the main state variables of the physical equations describing the energy balance of the system, that is, the energy delivered to the load and the energy stored in the batteries. Most of these methods consider the daily load as a constant over the year and control the variables indicating the reliability associated with the supply of power to the load. Furthermore, these methods rely on previous random models for generating solar radiation data and, since the approximations of the simulation methods are asymptotic, when more precise reliability indicators are required, the simulation period needs to be extended. This paper presents a mathematical methodology to address the daily energy balance without resorting to simulation methods. This method is directly based on daily solar radiation series modelled according to Markov stochastic processes and Aguiar matrices. The characterization presented is the base of a rational method in which reliability does not depend on the number of iterations but on the precision of the conditional probabilities included in Aguiar matrices. - Highlights: • A new SAPV sizing method is presented and validated. • This model relates the PV sizing methods to the autocorrelative Aguiar model. • This statistical approach is only limited by Markov matrixes. • It permits the study of PV systems with variable daily demands or solar tracking. • LLP for a SAPV can be estimated quickly and in an analytic and precise way

Momentary Associations Between Reported Craving and Valuing Health in Daily Smokers.

Science.gov (United States)

MacLean, Robert Ross; Martino, Steve; Carroll, Kathleen M; Smyth, Joshua M; Pincus, Aaron L; Wilson, Stephen J

2017-06-01

Research suggests that a blunted response to nondrug rewards, especially under conditions associated with strong cigarette cravings, is associated with reduced abstinence motivation in daily smokers. One limitation of previous studies is that they have largely focused on monetary rewards as broad representative of nondrug rewards. It remains unclear whether craving dampens responses to more abstract nondrug rewards, such as personal values. Personal values often have a positive valence and are frequently assumed to remain stable across time and situations. However, there may be time-varying and contextual influences on smokers' appraisal of values in daily life. Characterizing fluctuations in value importance in relation to relapse precipitants (eg, craving) may inform interventions that leverage personal values as motivation for cessation. Daily smokers (n = 18) completed ecological momentary assessment surveys measuring the importance of specific personal values and smoking-related variables during 8 days of monetarily reinforced cigarette abstinence. We hypothesized that value ratings would demonstrate adequate within-person heterogeneity for multilevel modeling and that within-person fluctuations in craving would be negatively related to valuing personal health. All values demonstrated adequate within-person variability for multilevel modeling. Within-person craving was negatively related to health valuation (p = .012) and a cross-level interaction (p > .0001) suggested this effect is stronger for individuals who report greater overall craving. Greater craving is associated with decreased importance of personal health in the moment, particularly for those with high average levels of craving. Timely interventions that bolster importance of health during moments of elevated craving can potentially improve cessation outcomes. This study builds on research highlighting the positive influence of personal values in motivating behavior change. Values are an often used

A fuzzy recommendation system for daily water intake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bin Dai

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Water is one of the most important constituents of the human body. Daily consumption of water is thus necessary to protect human health. Daily water consumption is related to several factors such as age, ambient temperature, and degree of physical activity. These factors are generally difficult to express with exact numerical values. The main objective of this article is to build a daily water intake recommendation system using fuzzy methods. This system will use age, physical activity, and ambient temperature as the input factors and daily water intake values as the output factor. The reasoning mechanism of the fuzzy system can calculate the recommended value of daily water intake. Finally, the system will compare the actual recommended values with our system to determine the usefulness. The experimental results show that this recommendation system is effective in actual application.

Estimation and prediction of maximum daily rainfall at Sagar Island using best fit probability models

Science.gov (United States)

Mandal, S.; Choudhury, B. U.

2015-07-01

Sagar Island, setting on the continental shelf of Bay of Bengal, is one of the most vulnerable deltas to the occurrence of extreme rainfall-driven climatic hazards. Information on probability of occurrence of maximum daily rainfall will be useful in devising risk management for sustaining rainfed agrarian economy vis-a-vis food and livelihood security. Using six probability distribution models and long-term (1982-2010) daily rainfall data, we studied the probability of occurrence of annual, seasonal and monthly maximum daily rainfall (MDR) in the island. To select the best fit distribution models for annual, seasonal and monthly time series based on maximum rank with minimum value of test statistics, three statistical goodness of fit tests, viz. Kolmogorove-Smirnov test (K-S), Anderson Darling test ( A 2 ) and Chi-Square test ( X 2) were employed. The fourth probability distribution was identified from the highest overall score obtained from the three goodness of fit tests. Results revealed that normal probability distribution was best fitted for annual, post-monsoon and summer seasons MDR, while Lognormal, Weibull and Pearson 5 were best fitted for pre-monsoon, monsoon and winter seasons, respectively. The estimated annual MDR were 50, 69, 86, 106 and 114 mm for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20 and 25 years, respectively. The probability of getting an annual MDR of >50, >100, >150, >200 and >250 mm were estimated as 99, 85, 40, 12 and 03 % level of exceedance, respectively. The monsoon, summer and winter seasons exhibited comparatively higher probabilities (78 to 85 %) for MDR of >100 mm and moderate probabilities (37 to 46 %) for >150 mm. For different recurrence intervals, the percent probability of MDR varied widely across intra- and inter-annual periods. In the island, rainfall anomaly can pose a climatic threat to the sustainability of agricultural production and thus needs adequate adaptation and mitigation measures.

Documentation of a daily mean stream temperature module—An enhancement to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

Science.gov (United States)

Sanders, Michael J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Regan, R. Steven; Atkinson, R. Dwight

2017-09-15

A module for simulation of daily mean water temperature in a network of stream segments has been developed as an enhancement to the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). This new module is based on the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Stream Network Temperature model, a mechanistic, one-dimensional heat transport model. The new module is integrated in PRMS. Stream-water temperature simulation is activated by selection of the appropriate input flags in the PRMS Control File and by providing the necessary additional inputs in standard PRMS input files.This report includes a comprehensive discussion of the methods relevant to the stream temperature calculations and detailed instructions for model input preparation.

Improved daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

Science.gov (United States)

Grimm, J W; Lynch, J A

2005-06-01

Daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models were developed for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (USA) using a linear least-squares regression approach and precipitation chemistry data from 29 National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) sites. Only weekly samples that comprised a single precipitation event were used in model development. The most significant variables in both ammonium and nitrate models included: precipitation volume, the number of days since the last event, a measure of seasonality, latitude, and the proportion of land within 8km covered by forest or devoted to industry and transportation. Additional variables included in the nitrate model were the proportion of land within 0.8km covered by water and/or forest. Local and regional ammonia and nitrogen oxide emissions were not as well correlated as land cover. Modeled concentrations compared very well with event chemistry data collected at six NADP/AirMoN sites within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Wet deposition estimates were also consistent with observed deposition at selected sites. Accurately describing the spatial distribution of precipitation volume throughout the watershed is important in providing critical estimates of wet-fall deposition of ammonium and nitrate.

Gender, Emotion Work, and Relationship Quality: A Daily Diary Study

Science.gov (United States)

Curran, Melissa A.; McDaniel, Brandon T.; Pollitt, Amanda M.; Totenhagen, Casey J.

2015-01-01

We use the gender relations perspective from feminist theorizing to investigate how gender and daily emotion work predict daily relationship quality in 74 couples (148 individuals in dating, cohabiting, or married relationships) primarily from the southwest U.S. Emotion work is characterized by activities that enhance others’ emotional well-being. We examined emotion work two ways: trait (individuals’ average levels) and state (individuals’ daily fluctuations). We examined actor and partner effects of emotion work and tested for gender differences. As outcome variables, we included six types of daily relationship quality: love, commitment, satisfaction, closeness, ambivalence, and conflict. This approach allowed us to predict three aspects of relationship quality: average levels, daily fluctuations, and volatility (overall daily variability across a week). Three patterns emerged. First, emotion work predicted relationship quality in this diverse set of couples. Second, gender differences were minimal for fixed effects: Trait and state emotion work predicted higher average scores on, and positive daily increases in, individuals’ own positive relationship quality and lower average ambivalence. Third, gender differences were more robust for volatility: For partner effects, having a partner who reported higher average emotion work predicted lower volatility in love, satisfaction, and closeness for women versus greater volatility in love and commitment for men. Neither gender nor emotion work predicted average levels, daily fluctuations, or volatility in conflict. We discuss implications and future directions pertaining to the unique role of gender in understanding the associations between daily emotion work and volatility in daily relationship quality for relational partners. PMID:26508808

Diffuse radiation models and monthly-average, daily, diffuse data for a wide latitude range

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gopinathan, K.K.; Soler, A.

1995-01-01

Several years of measured data on global and diffuse radiation and sunshine duration for 40 widely spread locations in the latitude range 36° S to 60° N are used to develop and test models for estimating monthly-mean, daily, diffuse radiation on horizontal surfaces. Applicability of the clearness-index (K) and sunshine fraction (SSO) models for diffuse estimation and the effect of combining several variables into a single multilinear equation are tested. Correlations connecting the diffuse to global fraction (HdH) with K and SSO predict Hd values more accurately than their separate use. Among clearness-index and sunshine-fraction models, SSO models are found to have better accuracy if correlations are developed for wide latitude ranges. By including a term for declinations in the correlation, the accuracy of the estimated data can be marginally improved. The addition of latitude to the equation does not help to improve the accuracy further. (author)

Relating precipitation to fronts at a sub-daily basis

Science.gov (United States)

Hénin, Riccardo; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Gouveia, Célia

2017-04-01

High impact events over Western Iberia include precipitation extremes that are cause for concern as they lead to flooding, landslides, extensive property damage and human casualties. These events are usually associated with low pressure systems over the North Atlantic moving eastward towards the European western coasts (Liberato and Trigo, 2014). A method to detect fronts and to associate amounts of precipitation to each front is tested, distinguishing between warm and cold fronts. The 6-hourly ERA-interim 1979-2012 reanalysis with 1°x1° horizontal resolution is used for the purpose. An objective front identification method (the Thermal Method described in Shemm et al., 2014) is applied to locate fronts all over the Northern Hemisphere considering the equivalent potential temperature as thermal parameter to use in the model. On the other hand, we settled a squared search box of tuneable dimension (from 2 to 10 degrees long) to look for a front in the neighbourhood of a grid point affected by precipitation. A sensitivity analysis is performed and the optimal dimension of the box is assessed in order to avoid over(under) estimation of precipitation. This is performed in the light of the variability and typical dynamics of warm/cold frontal systems in the Western Europe region. Afterwards, using the extreme event ranking over Iberia proposed by Ramos et al. (2014) the first ranked extreme events are selected in order to validate the method with specific case studies. Finally, climatological and trend maps of frontal activity are produced both on annual and seasonal scales. Trend maps show a decrease of frontal precipitation over north-western Europe and a slight increase over south-western Europe, mainly due to warm fronts. REFERENCES Liberato M.L.R. and R.M. Trigo (2014) Extreme precipitation events and related impacts in Western Iberia. Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions. IAHS Red Book No 363, 171-176. ISSN: 0144-7815. Ramos A.M., R

Winter precipitation characteristics in western US related to atmospheric river landfalls: observations and model evaluations

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, J.; Guan, B.; Waliser, D. E.; Ferraro, R. D.; Case, J. L.; Iguchi, T.; Kemp, E.; Putman, W.; Wang, W.; Wu, D.; Tian, B.

2018-01-01

Winter precipitation (PR) characteristics in western United States (WUS) related to atmospheric river (AR) landfalls are examined using the observation-based PRISM data. The observed AR-related precipitation characteristics are in turn used to evaluate model precipitation data from the NASA MERRA2 reanalysis and from seven dynamical downscaling simulations driven by the MERRA2. Multiple metrics including mean bias, Taylor diagram, and two skill scores are used to measure model performance for three climatological sub-regions in WUS, Pacific Northwest (PNW), Pacific Southwest (PSW) and Great Basin (GB). All model data well represent the winter-mean PR with spatial pattern correlations of 0.8 or higher with PRISM for the three sub-regions. Higher spatial resolutions and/or the use of spectral nudging generally yield higher skill scores in simulating the geographical distribution of PR for the entire winter. The PRISM data shows that the AR-related fraction of winter PR and associated daily PR PDFs in each region vary strongly for landfall locations; AR landfalls in the northern WUS coast (NC) affect mostly PNW while those in the southern WUS coast (SC) affect both PSW and GB. NC (SC) landfalls increase the frequency of heavy PR in PNW (PSW and GB) but reduce it in PSW (PNW). All model data reasonably represent these observed variations in the AR-related winter PR fractions and the daily PR PDFs according to AR landfall locations. However, unlike for the entire winter period, no systematic effects of resolution and/or spectral nudging are identified in these AR-related PR characteristics. Dynamical downscaling in this study generally yield positive added values to the MERRA2 PR in the AR-related PR fraction for most sub-regions and landfall locations, most noticeably for PSW by NU-WRF. The downscaling also generate positive added value in p95 for PNW, but negative values for PSW and GB due to overestimation of heavy precipitation events.

Non-daily pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Peter L.; García-Lerma, J. Gerardo; Heneine, Walid

2015-01-01

Purpose of review To discuss non-daily pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) modalities that may provide advantages compared with daily PrEP in cost and cumulative toxicity, but may have lower adherence forgiveness. Recent Findings Animal models have informed our understanding of early viral transmission events, which help guide event-driven PrEP dosing strategies. These models indicate early establishment of viral replication in rectal or cervicovaginal tissues, so event-driven PrEP should rapidly deliver high mucosal drug concentrations within hours of the potential exposure event. Macaque models have demonstrated the high biological efficacy for event-driven dosing of oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) and emtricitabine (FTC) against both vaginal and rectal virus transmission. In humans, the IPERGAY study demonstrated 86% efficacy for event-driven oral TDF/FTC dosing among men who have sex with men (MSM), while no similar efficacy data are available on women or heterosexual men. The HPTN 067 study showed that certain MSM populations adhere well to non-daily PrEP while other populations of women adhere more poorly to non-daily versus daily regimens. Pharmacokinetic studies following oral TDF/FTC dosing in humans, indicate that TFV-diphosphate (the active form of TFV) accumulates to higher concentrations in rectal versus cervicovaginal tissue but non-adherence in trials complicates the interpretation of differential mucosal drug concentrations. Summary Event-driven dosing for TFV-based PrEP has promise for HIV prevention in MSM. Future research of event-driven PrEP in women and heterosexual men should be guided by a better understanding of the importance of mucosal drug concentrations for PrEP efficacy and its sensitivity to adherence. PMID:26633641

A Bayesian modelling method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from global climate models and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Schepen

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Rainfall forecasts are an integral part of hydrological forecasting systems at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In seasonal forecasting, global climate models (GCMs are now the go-to source for rainfall forecasts. For hydrological applications however, GCM forecasts are often biased and unreliable in uncertainty spread, and calibration is therefore required before use. There are sophisticated statistical techniques for calibrating monthly and seasonal aggregations of the forecasts. However, calibration of seasonal forecasts at the daily time step typically uses very simple statistical methods or climate analogue methods. These methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve unbiased, reliable and coherent forecasts of daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. In this study, we propose and evaluate a Rainfall Post-Processing method for Seasonal forecasts (RPP-S, which is based on the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach for calibrating daily forecasts and the Schaake Shuffle for connecting the daily ensemble members of different lead times. We apply the method to post-process ACCESS-S forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments across Australia and for 12 initialisation dates. RPP-S significantly reduces bias in raw forecasts and improves both skill and reliability. RPP-S forecasts are also more skilful and reliable than forecasts derived from ACCESS-S forecasts that have been post-processed using quantile mapping, especially for monthly and seasonal accumulations. Several opportunities to improve the robustness and skill of RPP-S are identified. The new RPP-S post-processed forecasts will be used in ensemble sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow applications.

Access to cigarettes by daily smokers in Florida's public middle schools and high schools.

Science.gov (United States)

Saunders, Charles

2011-07-01

Youth who smoke daily have diverse methods for obtaining cigarettes, which range from commercial sources to essentially black market transactions. This study examines access to cigarettes, attitudes toward tobacco, and the demographic characteristics of youth who are daily cigarette smokers. Biennial data from the Florida Youth Tobacco Survey, a representative sample of Florida public middle- and high-school students, were used. Daily smoking was categorized into ordinal categories of increasing intensity. Analysis was done with a logistic partial proportional odds model, which allowed the effects of the independent predictors to vary according to smoking intensity. The multivariate analysis revealed that males and females have different methods of obtaining cigarettes. Moreover, certain modes of access to cigarettes were related to daily smoking intensity. Males who obtained cigarettes from their parents or stole them from a store were much more likely to have a higher intensity of daily smoking. Females who gave someone money to buy their cigarettes or bought them from a person were more likely to smoke more cigarettes per day. Males, but not females, also perceived that increasing the number of cigarettes smoked per day provides social benefits in the form of more friends. Understanding how daily youth smokers obtain cigarettes is necessary if effective antitobacco policies are to be developed for these individuals. Daily youth smokers are at increased risk of becoming addicted to nicotine, making them more likely to transition to daily adult smoking.

Associations between ambient air pollution and daily mortality in a cohort of congestive heart failure: Case-crossover and nested case-control analyses using a distributed lag nonlinear model.

Science.gov (United States)

Buteau, Stephane; Goldberg, Mark S; Burnett, Richard T; Gasparrini, Antonio; Valois, Marie-France; Brophy, James M; Crouse, Dan L; Hatzopoulou, Marianne

2018-04-01

Persons with congestive heart failure may be at higher risk of the acute effects related to daily fluctuations in ambient air pollution. To meet some of the limitations of previous studies using grouped-analysis, we developed a cohort study of persons with congestive heart failure to estimate whether daily non-accidental mortality were associated with spatially-resolved, daily exposures to ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and ozone (O 3 ), and whether these associations were modified according to a series of indicators potentially reflecting complications or worsening of health. We constructed the cohort from the linkage of administrative health databases. Daily exposure was assigned from different methods we developed previously to predict spatially-resolved, time-dependent concentrations of ambient NO 2 (all year) and O 3 (warm season) at participants' residences. We performed two distinct types of analyses: a case-crossover that contrasts the same person at different times, and a nested case-control that contrasts different persons at similar times. We modelled the effects of air pollution and weather (case-crossover only) on mortality using distributed lag nonlinear models over lags 0 to 3 days. We developed from administrative health data a series of indicators that may reflect the underlying construct of "declining health", and used interactions between these indicators and the cross-basis function for air pollutant to assess potential effect modification. The magnitude of the cumulative as well as the lag-specific estimates of association differed in many instances according to the metric of exposure. Using the back-extrapolation method, which is our preferred exposure model, we found for the case-crossover design a cumulative mean percentage changes (MPC) in daily mortality per interquartile increment in NO 2 (8.8 ppb) of 3.0% (95% CI: -0.9, 6.9%) and for O 3 (16.5 ppb) 3.5% (95% CI: -4.5, 12.1). For O 3 there was strong confounding by weather

Functional tasks exercise improves daily function in older women

OpenAIRE

Vreede, P.L. de

2006-01-01

Ageing is characterised by a reduction in physical reserve, the physiological capacity in excess of that needed for daily activities, that provides a margin of safety that absorbs age- or disease-related changes without a loss in function. When physical capacity falls below the ability required for the performance of daily tasks, functional limitations and a loss of independence may occur. Approximately 20% of people between 65 and 75 years of age report problems with activities of daily livi...

Association between daily environmental temperature and suicide mortality in Korea (2001-2005).

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Yoonhee; Kim, Ho; Kim, Dong-Sik

2011-04-30

Little attention has been paid to whether temperature is associated with suicide and to whether suicide seasonality appears in Asian countries as shown in Western countries, even though suicide rates in Korea have increased steadily. The goal of the present study was to examine the association between daily temperature and daily suicide rate in Korea, taking gender, age, and education level into account. Data were analyzed using a generalized additive model, adjusting for confounding factors such as sunshine, relative humidity, holidays, and long-term trends. Suicide rates were higher in spring and summer than other seasons. We observed a 1.4% increase (95% confidence interval=1.0-1.7%) in suicide with each 1°C-increase in daily mean temperature. The suicide risks related to the temperature for males, elderly people, and those with less education were higher than for females, younger people, and those with more education, respectively. These findings have confirmed that temperature is associated with suicide in Korea and further our understanding of more susceptible groups, the effects of gender, age, and education level. Therefore, temperature, one of the meteorological factors, is an important risk factor on suicide. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Optimal Daily Step Count Achievement from Segmented School Physical Activity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryan D. Burns

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Optimizing physical activity in childhood is needed for prevention of disease and for healthy social and psychological development. There is limited research examining how segmented school physical activity patterns relate to a child achieving optimal physical activity levels. The purpose of this study was to examine the predictive relationship between step counts during specific school segments and achieving optimal school (6,000 steps/day and daily (12,000 steps/day step counts in children. Participants included 1,714 school-aged children (mean age = 9.7±1.0 years recruited across six elementary schools. Physical activity was monitored for one week using pedometers. Generalized linear mixed effects models were used to determine the adjusted odds ratios (ORs of achieving both school and daily step count standards for every 1,000 steps taken during each school segment. The school segment that related in strongest way to a student achieving 6,000 steps during school hours was afternoon recess (OR = 40.03; P<0.001 and for achieving 12,000 steps for the entire day was lunch recess (OR = 5.03; P<0.001. School segments including lunch and afternoon recess play an important role for optimizing daily physical activity in children.

Modeling spray drift and runoff-related inputs of pesticides to receiving water.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xuyang; Luo, Yuzhou; Goh, Kean S

2018-03-01

Pesticides move to surface water via various pathways including surface runoff, spray drift and subsurface flow. Little is known about the relative contributions of surface runoff and spray drift in agricultural watersheds. This study develops a modeling framework to address the contribution of spray drift to the total loadings of pesticides in receiving water bodies. The modeling framework consists of a GIS module for identifying drift potential, the AgDRIFT model for simulating spray drift, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for simulating various hydrological and landscape processes including surface runoff and transport of pesticides. The modeling framework was applied on the Orestimba Creek Watershed, California. Monitoring data collected from daily samples were used for model evaluation. Pesticide mass deposition on the Orestimba Creek ranged from 0.08 to 6.09% of applied mass. Monitoring data suggests that surface runoff was the major pathway for pesticide entering water bodies, accounting for 76% of the annual loading; the rest 24% from spray drift. The results from the modeling framework showed 81 and 19%, respectively, for runoff and spray drift. Spray drift contributed over half of the mass loading during summer months. The slightly lower spray drift contribution as predicted by the modeling framework was mainly due to SWAT's under-prediction of pesticide mass loading during summer and over-prediction of the loading during winter. Although model simulations were associated with various sources of uncertainties, the overall performance of the modeling framework was satisfactory as evaluated by multiple statistics: for simulation of daily flow, the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) ranged from 0.61 to 0.74 and the percent bias (PBIAS) runoff in receiving waters and the design of management practices for mitigating pesticide exposure within a watershed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Do Daily Retail Gasoline Prices adjust Asymmetrically?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

L.J.H. Bettendorf (Leon); S.A. van der Geest (Stéphanie); G. Kuper

2005-01-01

textabstractThis paper analyzes adjustments in the Dutch retail gasoline prices. We estimate an error correction model on changes in the daily retail price for gasoline (taxes excluded) for the period 1996-2004 taking care of volatility clustering by estimating an EGARCH model. It turns out the

Models as Relational Categories

Science.gov (United States)

Kokkonen, Tommi

2017-11-01

Model-based learning (MBL) has an established position within science education. It has been found to enhance conceptual understanding and provide a way for engaging students in authentic scientific activity. Despite ample research, few studies have examined the cognitive processes regarding learning scientific concepts within MBL. On the other hand, recent research within cognitive science has examined the learning of so-called relational categories. Relational categories are categories whose membership is determined on the basis of the common relational structure. In this theoretical paper, I argue that viewing models as relational categories provides a well-motivated cognitive basis for MBL. I discuss the different roles of models and modeling within MBL (using ready-made models, constructive modeling, and generative modeling) and discern the related cognitive aspects brought forward by the reinterpretation of models as relational categories. I will argue that relational knowledge is vital in learning novel models and in the transfer of learning. Moreover, relational knowledge underlies the coherent, hierarchical knowledge of experts. Lastly, I will examine how the format of external representations may affect the learning of models and the relevant relations. The nature of the learning mechanisms underlying students' mental representations of models is an interesting open question to be examined. Furthermore, the ways in which the expert-like knowledge develops and how to best support it is in need of more research. The discussion and conceptualization of models as relational categories allows discerning students' mental representations of models in terms of evolving relational structures in greater detail than previously done.

Atmospheric mold spore counts in relation to meteorological parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Katial, R. K.; Zhang, Yiming; Jones, Richard H.; Dyer, Philip D.

Fungal spore counts of Cladosporium, Alternaria, and Epicoccum were studied during 8 years in Denver, Colorado. Fungal spore counts were obtained daily during the pollinating season by a Rotorod sampler. Weather data were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. Daily averages of temperature, relative humidity, daily precipitation, barometric pressure, and wind speed were studied. A time series analysis was performed on the data to mathematically model the spore counts in relation to weather parameters. Using SAS PROC ARIMA software, a regression analysis was performed, regressing the spore counts on the weather variables assuming an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) error structure. Cladosporium was found to be positively correlated (Pmodel was derived for Cladosporium spore counts using the annual seasonal cycle and significant weather variables. The model for Alternaria and Epicoccum incorporated the annual seasonal cycle. Fungal spore counts can be modeled by time series analysis and related to meteorological parameters controlling for seasonallity; this modeling can provide estimates of exposure to fungal aeroallergens.

DAILY MEAL FREQUENCY OF SECONDARY SCHOOL STUDENTS FROM LJUBLJANA IN RELATION TO SOME OF THEIR OTHER NUTRITIONAL AND LIFE-STYLE CHARACTERISTICS AND BODY MASS INDEX – PRELIMINARY RESULTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mojca Gabrijelčič-Blenkuš

2001-05-01

Full Text Available Background. The recommended number of daily meals is three to five. The aim of this study was to establish the number of meals, daily consumed by secondary school students from Ljubljana, and the relationship with nutritional and other habits, including bad habits, demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the secondary school students and their body mass index.Methods. In 1999, an cross-section epidemiological study was performed on a proportional sample of 296 pupils attending the third class of Ljubljana secondary schools. The applied dietary data collection methods were the survey and the 24-hour dietary recall. The body mass index was calculated on the basis of the measured body height and body mass values. The Chi-square test, t-test, variance analysis and the multivariant linear regression method were used for the analysis.Results. The students consume 3.16 meals per day on average (boys 3.44, girls 2.87. The students who reported a smaller number of meals per day consume statistically significantly less fruit, vegetables, milk, milk products and fish. They take hot meals less frequently, consume less often all daily meals, their daily meals are of a poorer quality in respect to their composition, they eat less often their meals in a sitting position, they feel a greater difference in diet between working week days and weekends, their regular nourishment is more influenced by school obligations, they have poorer knowledge of healthy dietary practices, smoke more often, are less satisfied with their weight, are less physically active and girls sleep less at nights. The inverse proportional relationship between the number of daily meals and the body mass index was not statistically significant. The multivariant linear regression model explained the low variance percentage (R2 = 0.28.Conclusions. The average number of daily meals consumed by schoolboys is at the lower border of recommendations, while the average number of daily meals

Daily Water Requirements when Wearing Body Armor

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Montain, Scott

2000-01-01

.... This report presents the results of model simulations predicting the individual daily water requirements under a broad range of energy expenditures and weather conditions when wearing battle dress...

Incorporating Daily Flood Control Objectives Into a Monthly Stochastic Dynamic Programing Model for a Hydroelectric Complex

Science.gov (United States)

Druce, Donald J.

1990-01-01

A monthly stochastic dynamic programing model was recently developed and implemented at British Columbia (B.C.) Hydro to provide decision support for short-term energy exports and, if necessary, for flood control on the Peace River in northern British Columbia. The model establishes the marginal cost of supplying energy from the B.C. Hydro system, as well as a monthly operating policy for the G.M. Shrum and Peace Canyon hydroelectric plants and the Williston Lake storage reservoir. A simulation model capable of following the operating policy then determines the probability of refilling Williston Lake and possible spill rates and volumes. Reservoir inflows are input to both models in daily and monthly formats. The results indicate that flood control can be accommodated without sacrificing significant export revenue.

Incorporating daily flood control objectives into a monthly stochastic dynamic programming model for a hydroelectric complex

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Druce, D.J. (British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada))

1990-01-01

A monthly stochastic dynamic programing model was recently developed and implemented at British Columbia (B.C.) Hydro to provide decision support for short-term energy exports and, if necessary, for flood control on the Peace River in northern British Columbia. The model established the marginal cost of supplying energy from the B.C. Hydro system, as well as a monthly operating policy for the G.M. Shrum and Peace Canyon hydroelectric plants and the Williston Lake storage reservoir. A simulation model capable of following the operating policy then determines the probability of refilling Williston Lake and possible spill rates and volumes. Reservoir inflows are input to both models in daily and monthly formats. The results indicate that flood control can be accommodated without sacrificing significant export revenue.

Estimation of daily solar radiation from routinely observed meteorological data in Chongqing, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Maofen; Liu Hongbin; Guo Pengtao; Wu Wei

2010-01-01

Solar radiation is a very important and major variable in crop simulation models. However, it is measured at a very limited number of meteorological stations worldwide. Models were developed to estimate daily solar radiation in Chongqing, one of the most important agricultural areas in China. Several routinely observed meteorological variables including daily maximum and minimum temperatures, daily mean dew point temperature, fog and rainfall had been obtained, investigated and analyzed from 1986 to 2000 for Chongqing. The monthly mean daily solar radiation at this location ranged from a maximum of 15.082 MJ m -2 day -1 in August and a minimum of 3.042 MJ m -2 day -1 in December. A newly developed model that included all selected variables proved the best method with a RMSE value of 2.522 MJ m -2 day -1 . The best performed models for different seasons were further evaluated according to divide-and-conquer principle. The model using all selected variables provided the best estimates of daily solar radiation in winter and autumn with RMSE values of 1.491 and 2.037 MJ m -2 day -1 , respectively. The method involving temperatures and rainfall information could be used to estimate daily solar radiation in summer with a RMSE value of 3.163 MJ m -2 day -1 . The model using temperature, rainfall and dew point data performed better than other models in spring with a RMSE value of 2.910 MJ m -2 day -1 .

Depression and pain impair daily functioning and quality of life in patients with major depressive disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Ching-Hua; Yen, Yung-Chieh; Chen, Ming-Chao; Chen, Cheng-Chung

2014-09-01

Depression and pain frequently occur together. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of depression and pain on the impairment of daily functioning and quality of life (QOL) of depressed patients. We enrolled 131 acutely ill inpatients with major depressive disorder. Depression, pain, and daily functioning were assessed using the 17-item Hamilton Depression Rating Scale, the Short-Form 36 (SF-36) Body Pain Index, and the Work and Social Adjustment Scale. Health-related QOL was assessed using three primary domains of the SF-36: social functioning, vitality, and general health perceptions. Pearson׳s correlation and structural equation modeling were used to examine relationships among the study variables. Five models were proposed. In all, 129 patients completed all the measures. Model 5, both depression and pain impaired daily functioning and QOL, was the most fitted structural equation model (χ(2)=9.2, df=8, p=0.33, GFI=0.98, AGFI=0.94, TLI=0.99, CFI=0.99, RMSEA=0.03). The correlation between pain and depression was weak (r=-0.27, z=-2.95, p=0.003). This was a cross-sectional study with a small sample size. Depression and pain exert a direct influence on the impairment of daily functioning and QOL of depressed patients; this impairment could be expected regardless of increased pain, depression, or both pain and depression. Pain had a somewhat separate entity from depression. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Do daily retail gasoline prices adjust asymmetrically?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bettendorf, L.; van der Geest, S. A.; Kuper, G. H.

2009-01-01

This paper analyses adjustments in the Dutch retail gasoline prices. We estimate an error correction model on changes in the daily retail price for gasoline (taxes excluded) for the period 1996-2004, taking care of volatility clustering by estimating an EGARCH model. It turns out that the volatility

Linking Excessive Heat with Daily Heat-Related Mortality over the Coterminous United States

Science.gov (United States)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

2014-01-01

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air

Modelling Seasonal GWR of Daily PM2.5 with Proper Auxiliary Variables for the Yangtze River Delta

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Man Jiang

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Over the past decades, regional haze episodes have frequently occurred in eastern China, especially in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD. Satellite derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD has been used to retrieve the spatial coverage of PM2.5 concentrations. To improve the retrieval accuracy of the daily AOD-PM2.5 model, various auxiliary variables like meteorological or geographical factors have been adopted into the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR model. However, these variables are always arbitrarily selected without deep consideration of their potentially varying temporal or spatial contributions in the model performance. In this manuscript, we put forward an automatic procedure to select proper auxiliary variables from meteorological and geographical factors and obtain their optimal combinations to construct four seasonal GWR models. We employ two different schemes to comprehensively test the performance of our proposed GWR models: (1 comparison with other regular GWR models by varying the number of auxiliary variables; and (2 comparison with observed ground-level PM2.5 concentrations. The result shows that our GWR models of “AOD + 3” with three common meteorological variables generally perform better than all the other GWR models involved. Our models also show powerful prediction capabilities in PM2.5 concentrations with only slight overfitting. The determination coefficients R2 of our seasonal models are 0.8259 in spring, 0.7818 in summer, 0.8407 in autumn, and 0.7689 in winter. Also, the seasonal models in summer and autumn behave better than those in spring and winter. The comparison between seasonal and yearly models further validates the specific seasonal pattern of auxiliary variables of the GWR model in the YRD. We also stress the importance of key variables and propose a selection process in the AOD-PM2.5 model. Our work validates the significance of proper auxiliary variables in modelling the AOD-PM2.5 relationships and

Continuous Sub-daily Rainfall Simulation for Regional Flood Risk Assessment - Modelling of Spatio-temporal Correlation Structure of Extreme Precipitation in the Austrian Alps

Science.gov (United States)

Salinas, J. L.; Nester, T.; Komma, J.; Bloeschl, G.

2017-12-01

Generation of realistic synthetic spatial rainfall is of pivotal importance for assessing regional hydroclimatic hazard as the input for long term rainfall-runoff simulations. The correct reproduction of observed rainfall characteristics, such as regional intensity-duration-frequency curves, and spatial and temporal correlations is necessary to adequately model the magnitude and frequency of the flood peaks, by reproducing antecedent soil moisture conditions before extreme rainfall events, and joint probability of flood waves at confluences. In this work, a modification of the model presented by Bardossy and Platte (1992), where precipitation is first modeled on a station basis as a multivariate autoregressive model (mAr) in a Normal space. The spatial and temporal correlation structures are imposed in the Normal space, allowing for a different temporal autocorrelation parameter for each station, and simultaneously ensuring the positive-definiteness of the correlation matrix of the mAr errors. The Normal rainfall is then transformed to a Gamma-distributed space, with parameters varying monthly according to a sinusoidal function, in order to adapt to the observed rainfall seasonality. One of the main differences with the original model is the simulation time-step, reduced from 24h to 6h. Due to a larger availability of daily rainfall data, as opposite to sub-daily (e.g. hourly), the parameters of the Gamma distributions are calibrated to reproduce simultaneously a series of daily rainfall characteristics (mean daily rainfall, standard deviations of daily rainfall, and 24h intensity-duration-frequency [IDF] curves), as well as other aggregated rainfall measures (mean annual rainfall, and monthly rainfall). The calibration of the spatial and temporal correlation parameters is performed in a way that the catchment-averaged IDF curves aggregated at different temporal scales fit the measured ones. The rainfall model is used to generate 10.000 years of synthetic

Food consumption and daily feeding periodicity : comparison between pelagic and demersal whiting in the North Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Jens

2000-01-01

composition and energy density of the prey and spatial distribution of the whiting, demonstrates the need for a sampling design that includes both pelagic and demersal layers when quantifying the food consumption of whiting.(C) 2000 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.......Pelagic North Sea whiting Merlagius merlangus fed at night, while demersal whiting fed by day. The estimated specific daily ration ranged from 4.38 to 7.84% in 1992 and from 3.99 to 10.31% in 1993 using the in situ rate of gastric evacuation. Using Anderson's evacuation model the specific daily...... ration ranged from 0.41 to 1.66% in 1992 and from 0.78 to 1.75% in 1993. The specific daily rations were significantly different where energy density of stomach content by length class of whiting was significantly different between the two layers and years. The fact that daily ration was related to prey...

Daily transactional and transformational leadership and daily employee engament

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Breevaart, K.; Bakker, A.B.; Hetland, Jorn; Demerouti, E.; Olsen, O.K.; Espevik, R.

2014-01-01

This diary study adds to the leadership literature by examining the daily influence of transformational leadership, contingent reward, and active management-by-exception (MBE active) on followers' daily work engagement. We compare the unique contribution of these leadership behaviours and focus on

Compliance, clinical outcome, and quality of life of patients with stable angina pectoris receiving once-daily betaxolol versus twice daily metoprolol: a randomized controlled trial

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Przemyslaw Kardas

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Przemyslaw KardasThe First Department of Family Medicine, Medical University of LodzBackground: A randomized, controlled trial was conducted in an outpatient setting to examine the effect of beta-blocker dosing frequency on patient compliance, clinical outcome, and health-related quality of life in patients with stable angina pectoris.Methods: One hundred and twelve beta-blockers-naive outpatients with stable angina pectoris were randomized to receive betaxolol, 20 mg once daily or metoprolol tartrate, 50 mg twice daily for 8 weeks. The principal outcome measure was overall compliance measured electronically, whereas secondary outcome measures were drug effectiveness and health-related quality of life.Results: The overall compliance was 86.5 ± 21.3% in the betaxolol group versus 76.1 ± 26.3% in the metoprolol group (p < 0.01, and the correct number of doses was taken on 84.4 ± 21.6% and 64.0 ± 31.7% of treatment days, respectively (p < 0.0001. The percentage of missed doses was 14.5 ± 21.5% in the once-daily group and 24.8 ± 26.4% in the twice-daily group (p < 0.01. The percentage of doses taken in the correct time window (58.6% vs 42.0%, p = 0.01, correct interdose intervals (77.4% v 53.1%, p < 0.0001, and therapeutic coverage (85.6% vs 73.7%, p < 0.001 were significantly higher in the once-daily group. Both studied drugs had similar antianginal effectiveness. Health-related quality of life improved in both groups, but this increase was more pronounced in the betaxolol arm in some dimensions.Conclusions: The study demonstrates that patient compliance with once-daily betaxolol is significantly better than with twice daily metoprolol. Similarly, this treatment provides better quality of life. These results demonstrate possible therapeutic advantages of once-daily over twice-daily beta-blockers in the treatment of stable angina pectoris.Keywords: patient compliance, quality of life, stable angina pectoris, randomized controlled trial

Spatial Interpolation of Daily Rainfall Data for Local Climate Impact Assessment over Greater Sydney Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xihua Yang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents spatial interpolation techniques to produce finer-scale daily rainfall data from regional climate modeling. Four common interpolation techniques (ANUDEM, Spline, IDW, and Kriging were compared and assessed against station rainfall data and modeled rainfall. The performance was assessed by the mean absolute error (MAE, mean relative error (MRE, root mean squared error (RMSE, and the spatial and temporal distributions. The results indicate that Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW method is slightly better than the other three methods and it is also easy to implement in a geographic information system (GIS. The IDW method was then used to produce forty-year (1990–2009 and 2040–2059 time series rainfall data at daily, monthly, and annual time scales at a ground resolution of 100 m for the Greater Sydney Region (GSR. The downscaled daily rainfall data have been further utilized to predict rainfall erosivity and soil erosion risk and their future changes in GSR to support assessments and planning of climate change impact and adaptation in local scale.

Associations between daily musicking and health

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ekholm, Ola; Juel, Knud; Bonde, Lars Ole

2016-01-01

musically, while this pattern was not found among men. CONCLUSIONS GENDER SEEMS TO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN MUSICKING AND HEALTH, BUT MORE RESEARCH IS NEEDED TO UNDERSTAND THESE DIFFERENCES AND THE UNDERLYING MECHANISMS IN ADDITION, LONGITUDINAL STUDIES ARE WARRANTED TO EXAMINE......AIMS: To examine the associations between singing/playing musical instruments daily and various outcomes such as health-related quality of life and health behaviour. METHODS: Data originates from the Danish Health and Morbidity Survey 2013. The survey was based on a random sample of 25,000 adult...... Danes (response rate: 57%). Besides standard health-related questions the survey included eight specific music questions, based on a review of the sparse literature on music and health. On the same basis, 'daily musicking' was defined as normally singing/playing musical instruments at least 1 h...

Development and evaluation of a stochastic daily rainfall model with long-term variability

Science.gov (United States)

Kamal Chowdhury, A. F. M.; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George; Kiem, Anthony S.; Parana Manage, Nadeeka

2017-12-01

The primary objective of this study is to develop a stochastic rainfall generation model that can match not only the short resolution (daily) variability but also the longer resolution (monthly to multiyear) variability of observed rainfall. This study has developed a Markov chain (MC) model, which uses a two-state MC process with two parameters (wet-to-wet and dry-to-dry transition probabilities) to simulate rainfall occurrence and a gamma distribution with two parameters (mean and standard deviation of wet day rainfall) to simulate wet day rainfall depths. Starting with the traditional MC-gamma model with deterministic parameters, this study has developed and assessed four other variants of the MC-gamma model with different parameterisations. The key finding is that if the parameters of the gamma distribution are randomly sampled each year from fitted distributions rather than fixed parameters with time, the variability of rainfall depths at both short and longer temporal resolutions can be preserved, while the variability of wet periods (i.e. number of wet days and mean length of wet spell) can be preserved by decadally varied MC parameters. This is a straightforward enhancement to the traditional simplest MC model and is both objective and parsimonious.

A daily analysis of physical activity and satisfaction with life in emerging adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Maher, Jaclyn P; Doerksen, Shawna E; Elavsky, Steriani; Hyde, Amanda L; Pincus, Aaron L; Ram, Nilam; Conroy, David E

2013-06-01

Subjective well-being has well-established positive health consequences. During emerging adulthood, from ages 18 to 25 years, people's global evaluations of their well-being (i.e., satisfaction with life [SWL]) appear to worsen more than any other time in the adult life span, indicating that this population would benefit from strategies to enhance SWL. In these studies, we investigated top-down (i.e., time-invariant, trait-like) and bottom-up (i.e., time-varying, state-like) influences of physical activity (PA) on daily SWL. Two daily diary studies lasting 8 days (N = 190) and 14 days (N = 63) were conducted with samples of emerging adults enrolled in college to evaluate relations between daily PA and SWL while controlling for established and plausible top-down and bottom-up influences on SWL. In both studies, multilevel models indicated that people reported greater SWL on days when they were more active (a within-person, bottom-up effect). Top-down effects of PA were not significant in either study. These findings were robust when we controlled for competing top-down influences (e.g., sex, personality traits, self-esteem, body mass index, mental health symptoms, fatigue) and bottom-up influences (e.g., daily self-esteem, daily mental health symptoms, daily fatigue). We concluded that SWL was impacted by people's daily PA rather than their trait level of PA over time. These findings extend evidence that PA is a health behavior with important consequences for daily well-being and should be considered when developing national policies to enhance SWL. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

A simple method to downscale daily wind statistics to hourly wind data

OpenAIRE

Guo, Zhongling

2013-01-01

Wind is the principal driver in the wind erosion models. The hourly wind speed data were generally required for precisely wind erosion modeling. In this study, a simple method to generate hourly wind speed data from daily wind statistics (daily average and maximum wind speeds together or daily average wind speed only) was established. A typical windy location with 3285 days (9 years) measured hourly wind speed data were used to validate the downscaling method. The results showed that the over...

Daily precipitation grids for Austria since 1961—development and evaluation of a spatial dataset for hydroclimatic monitoring and modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Hiebl, Johann; Frei, Christoph

2018-04-01

Spatial precipitation datasets that are long-term consistent, highly resolved and extend over several decades are an increasingly popular basis for modelling and monitoring environmental processes and planning tasks in hydrology, agriculture, energy resources management, etc. Here, we present a grid dataset of daily precipitation for Austria meant to promote such applications. It has a grid spacing of 1 km, extends back till 1961 and is continuously updated. It is constructed with the classical two-tier analysis, involving separate interpolations for mean monthly precipitation and daily relative anomalies. The former was accomplished by kriging with topographic predictors as external drift utilising 1249 stations. The latter is based on angular distance weighting and uses 523 stations. The input station network was kept largely stationary over time to avoid artefacts on long-term consistency. Example cases suggest that the new analysis is at least as plausible as previously existing datasets. Cross-validation and comparison against experimental high-resolution observations (WegenerNet) suggest that the accuracy of the dataset depends on interpretation. Users interpreting grid point values as point estimates must expect systematic overestimates for light and underestimates for heavy precipitation as well as substantial random errors. Grid point estimates are typically within a factor of 1.5 from in situ observations. Interpreting grid point values as area mean values, conditional biases are reduced and the magnitude of random errors is considerably smaller. Together with a similar dataset of temperature, the new dataset (SPARTACUS) is an interesting basis for modelling environmental processes, studying climate change impacts and monitoring the climate of Austria.

Genetic Analysis of Daily Maximum Milking Speed by a Random Walk Model in Dairy Cows

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karacaören, Burak; Janss, Luc; Kadarmideen, Haja

Data were obtained from dairy cows stationed at research farm ETH Zurich for maximum milking speed. The main aims of this paper are a) to evaluate if the Wood curve is suitable to model mean lactation curve b) to predict longitudinal breeding values by random regression and random walk models of ...... filter applications: random walk model could give online prediction of breeding values. Hence without waiting for whole lactation records, genetic evaluation could be made when the daily or monthly data is available......Data were obtained from dairy cows stationed at research farm ETH Zurich for maximum milking speed. The main aims of this paper are a) to evaluate if the Wood curve is suitable to model mean lactation curve b) to predict longitudinal breeding values by random regression and random walk models...... of maximum milking speed. Wood curve did not provide a good fit to the data set. Quadratic random regressions gave better predictions compared with the random walk model. However random walk model does not need to be evaluated for different orders of regression coefficients. In addition with the Kalman...

The Influence of Puff Characteristics, Nicotine Dependence, and Rate of Nicotine Metabolism on Daily Nicotine Exposure in African American Smokers.

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Kathryn C; Dempsey, Delia A; St Helen, Gideon; Delucchi, Kevin; Benowitz, Neal L

2016-06-01

African American (AA) smokers experience greater tobacco-related disease burden than Whites, despite smoking fewer cigarettes per day (CPD). Understanding factors that influence daily nicotine intake in AA smokers is an important step toward decreasing tobacco-related health disparities. One factor of interest is smoking topography, or the study of puffing behavior. (i) to create a model using puff characteristics, nicotine dependence, and nicotine metabolism to predict daily nicotine exposure, and (ii) to compare puff characteristics and nicotine intake from two cigarettes smoked at different times to ensure the reliability of the puff characteristics included in our model. Sixty AA smokers smoked their preferred brand of cigarette at two time points through a topography device. Plasma nicotine, expired CO, and changes in subjective measures were measured before and after each cigarette. Total nicotine equivalents (TNE) was measured from 24-hour urine collected during ad libitum smoking. In a model predicting daily nicotine exposure, total puff volume, CPD, sex, and menthol status were significant predictors (R(2) = 0.44, P smokers. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(6); 936-43. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

The effect of scale in daily precipitation hazard assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. J. Egozcue

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24 h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24 h precipitation by a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA corresponds to finite support variables as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. Bayesian techniques are used to estimate the parameters. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimated GPD is mainly in the Fréchet DA, something incompatible with the common sense assumption of that precipitation is a bounded phenomenon. The bounded character of precipitation is then taken as a priori hypothesis. Consistency of this hypothesis with the data is checked in two cases: using the raw-data (in mm and using log-transformed data. As expected, a Bayesian model checking clearly rejects the model in the raw-data case. However, log-transformed data seem to be consistent with the model. This fact may be due to the adequacy of the log-scale to represent positive measurements for which differences are better relative than absolute.

Relations Between Self-Reported Daily-Life Fatigue, Hearing Status, and Pupil Dilation During a Speech Perception in Noise Task.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yang; Naylor, Graham; Kramer, Sophia E; Zekveld, Adriana A; Wendt, Dorothea; Ohlenforst, Barbara; Lunner, Thomas

People with hearing impairment are likely to experience higher levels of fatigue because of effortful listening in daily communication. This hearing-related fatigue might not only constrain their work performance but also result in withdrawal from major social roles. Therefore, it is important to understand the relationships between fatigue, listening effort, and hearing impairment by examining the evidence from both subjective and objective measurements. The aim of the present study was to investigate these relationships by assessing subjectively measured daily-life fatigue (self-report questionnaires) and objectively measured listening effort (pupillometry) in both normally hearing and hearing-impaired participants. Twenty-seven normally hearing and 19 age-matched participants with hearing impairment were included in this study. Two self-report fatigue questionnaires Need For Recovery and Checklist Individual Strength were given to the participants before the test session to evaluate the subjectively measured daily fatigue. Participants were asked to perform a speech reception threshold test with single-talker masker targeting a 50% correct response criterion. The pupil diameter was recorded during the speech processing, and we used peak pupil dilation (PPD) as the main outcome measure of the pupillometry. No correlation was found between subjectively measured fatigue and hearing acuity, nor was a group difference found between the normally hearing and the hearing-impaired participants on the fatigue scores. A significant negative correlation was found between self-reported fatigue and PPD. A similar correlation was also found between Speech Intelligibility Index required for 50% correct and PPD. Multiple regression analysis showed that factors representing "hearing acuity" and "self-reported fatigue" had equal and independent associations with the PPD during the speech in noise test. Less fatigue and better hearing acuity were associated with a larger pupil

Short-term effect of fine particulate air pollution on daily mortality: a case-crossover study in a tropical city, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Shang-Shyue; Chen, Chih-Cheng; Yang, Chun-Yuh

2014-01-01

Many studies have examined the short-term effects of air pollution on frequency of daily mortality over the past two decades. However, information on the relationship between levels of fine particles (PM(2.5)) and daily mortality is relatively sparse due to limited availability of monitoring data. Further the results are inconsistent. This study was undertaken to determine whether there was an association between PM(2.5) levels and daily mortality rate in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, a large industrial city with a tropical climate. Daily mortality rate, air pollution parameters, and weather data for Kaohsiung were obtained for the period from 2006 through 2008. The relative risk of daily mortality occurrence was estimated using a time-stratified case-crossover approach, controlling for (1) weather variables, (2) day of the week, (3) seasonality, and (4) long-term time trends. For the single-pollutant model (without adjustment for other pollutants), no significant effects were found between PM(2.5) and frequency of daily mortality on warm days (≥25°C). On cool days, PM(2.5) showed significant correlation with increased risk of mortality rate for all causes and circulatory diseases in single-pollutant model. There was no indication of an association between PM(2.5) and deaths due to respiratory diseases. The relationship appeared to be stronger on cool days. This study provided evidence of associations between short-term exposure to PM(2.5) and elevated risk of death for all cause and circulatory diseases.

Inner power, physical strength and existential well-being in daily life: relatives' experiences of receiving soft tissue massage in palliative home care.

Science.gov (United States)

Cronfalk, Berit Seiger; Strang, Peter; Ternestedt, Britt-Marie

2009-08-01

This article explores relatives' experiences of receiving soft tissue massage as a support supplement while caring for a dying family member at home. In palliative home care, relatives play an important role as carers to seriously ill and dying family members. To improve their quality of life, different support strategies are of importance. Complementary methods, such as soft tissue massage have become an appreciated supplement for these patients. However, only few studies focus on relatives experiences of receiving soft tissue massage as a supplemental support. Qualitative design Nineteen relatives received soft tissue massage (hand or foot) nine times (25 minutes) in their homes. Open-ended semi-structured tape-recorded interviews were conducted once per relative after the nine times of massage, using qualitative content analysis. Soft tissue massage gave the relatives' feelings of 'being cared for', 'body vitality' and 'peace of mind'. For a while, they put worries of daily life aside as they just experienced 'being'. During massage, it became apparent that body and mind is constituted of an indestructible completeness. The overarching theme was 'inner power, physical strength and existential well-being in their daily lives'. All relatives experienced soft tissue massage positively, although they were under considerable stress. Soft tissue massage could be an option to comfort and support relatives in palliative home care. In palliative nursing care, soft tissue massage could present a worthy supplement in supporting caring relatives.

Reporter Turnover on Texas Daily Newspapers.

Science.gov (United States)

Moss, Marquita

1978-01-01

A survey of Texas daily newspapers yielded a picture of newspaper reporters as relatively young men who do not stay in one place very long, suggesting that the stereotype of the itinerant reporter may have its basis in fact. (GW)

Differential Associations and Daily Smoking of Adolescents: The Importance of Same-Sex Models

Science.gov (United States)

Nofziger, Stacey; Lee, Hye-Ryeon

2006-01-01

This article examines whether the importance of parents, siblings, best friends, and romantic interests are sex-specific in predicting daily juvenile smoking. Juveniles who smoke daily are strongly influenced by prosmoking attitudes and behaviors of same-sex family members. However, peers remain the most important associations in predicting daily…

The Influences of Employment Status and Daily Stressors on Physiological Functioning in a Sample of Midlife and Older Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Jen D; Shobo, Yetunde

2016-06-01

This study examines the influences of employment status and the moderating role of daily stressors on cortisol levels and responsivity in 182 workers and 253 retirees between 55 and 75 years old from the National Survey of Midlife Development in the United States (MIDUS-II). As a part of the Daily Diary Study, participants completed telephone interviews about their daily experiences across eight evenings and provided saliva samples across 4 days. Multilevel models showed that workers who experienced greater number of non-work related daily stressors significantly exhibited higher cortisol level at 30 min post awakening (b = 0.252, SE = 0.109, p stressors. Findings demonstrate the important consideration of daily stressors in identifying the ways in which social roles influence physiological functioning in midlife and late adulthood. © The Author(s) 2016.

Families of Children with Chronic Illness and the Relational Family Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tanja Pate

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Families of children with chronic illness experience persistent stress. Facing the diagnosis and learning how to cope with it is a stressful experience not only for the child but also for the parents and for the whole family. The illness, with its unpredictability and treatment, disturbs their daily routine and threatens the whole family system. Parental involvement in the child’s disease management and their emotional support are crucial for effective coping and adaptation to the child’s chronic illness. The aim of this article is to present the importance of the parental role in these families through theoretical findings of the relational family model.

Observability of market daily volatility

Science.gov (United States)

Petroni, Filippo; Serva, Maurizio

2016-02-01

We study the price dynamics of 65 stocks from the Dow Jones Composite Average from 1973 to 2014. We show that it is possible to define a Daily Market Volatility σ(t) which is directly observable from data. This quantity is usually indirectly defined by r(t) = σ(t) ω(t) where the r(t) are the daily returns of the market index and the ω(t) are i.i.d. random variables with vanishing average and unitary variance. The relation r(t) = σ(t) ω(t) alone is unable to give an operative definition of the index volatility, which remains unobservable. On the contrary, we show that using the whole information available in the market, the index volatility can be operatively defined and detected.

The daily commute from work to home: Examining employees' experiences in relation to their recovery status

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hooff, M.L.M. van

2015-01-01

Sufficient recovery after daily effort expenditure at work is important to protect employee health and well-being. However, the role of commuting in the daily effort-recovery process is still not very well understood. The present study aimed to advance insight in this respect by examining if

Daily goal progress is facilitated by spousal support and promotes psychological, physical, and relational well-being throughout adulthood

Science.gov (United States)

Jakubiak, Brittany K.; Feeney, Brooke C.

2016-01-01

In two daily-diary studies, we tested the consequences and precursors of daily goal progress throughout the adult lifespan. Attachment theory posits that exploration—including the pursuit of autonomous goals—promotes well-being across the lifespan and is facilitated by support from close others. For both young-adult newlyweds (Study 1) and married couples in late adulthood (Study 2), daily independent goal progress predicted same-day and next-day improvements in psychological, physical, and relational well-being. Specifically, when participants made more progress on their goals than usual on one day, they reported increases in positive affect, sleep quality, and relationship quality, and decreased physical symptoms, the following day (as well as concurrently). Additionally, spousal support (i.e., availability, encouragement, and noninterference) enabled same-day and next-day goal progress. Mediational analyses showed indirect links between spousal support and well-being through goal progress. Some effects were moderated by attachment orientation in the newlywed sample; individuals with greater insecure attachment benefited most from goal progress, and spousal support enabled goal progress most strongly for individuals with less anxious attachment. Overall, these results support and extend attachment theoretical propositions regarding the importance of the exploration system across the adult lifespan. They contribute to existing literature by demonstrating wide-ranging consequences of successful exploration for well-being and by providing evidence for the importance of both exploration and support for exploration into late adulthood. PMID:27560610

A Pareto-optimal moving average multigene genetic programming model for daily streamflow prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Kahya, Ercan

2017-06-01

Genetic programming (GP) is able to systematically explore alternative model structures of different accuracy and complexity from observed input and output data. The effectiveness of GP in hydrological system identification has been recognized in recent studies. However, selecting a parsimonious (accurate and simple) model from such alternatives still remains a question. This paper proposes a Pareto-optimal moving average multigene genetic programming (MA-MGGP) approach to develop a parsimonious model for single-station streamflow prediction. The three main components of the approach that take us from observed data to a validated model are: (1) data pre-processing, (2) system identification and (3) system simplification. The data pre-processing ingredient uses a simple moving average filter to diminish the lagged prediction effect of stand-alone data-driven models. The multigene ingredient of the model tends to identify the underlying nonlinear system with expressions simpler than classical monolithic GP and, eventually simplification component exploits Pareto front plot to select a parsimonious model through an interactive complexity-efficiency trade-off. The approach was tested using the daily streamflow records from a station on Senoz Stream, Turkey. Comparing to the efficiency results of stand-alone GP, MGGP, and conventional multi linear regression prediction models as benchmarks, the proposed Pareto-optimal MA-MGGP model put forward a parsimonious solution, which has a noteworthy importance of being applied in practice. In addition, the approach allows the user to enter human insight into the problem to examine evolved models and pick the best performing programs out for further analysis.

Daily negative affect and smoking after a self-set quit attempt: The role of dyadic invisible social support in a daily diary study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lüscher, Janina; Stadler, Gertraud; Ochsner, Sibylle; Rackow, Pamela; Knoll, Nina; Hornung, Rainer; Scholz, Urte

2015-11-01

Social support receipt from one's partner is assumed to be beneficial for successful smoking cessation. However, support receipt can have costs. Recent research suggests that the most effective support is unnoticed by the receiver (i.e., invisible). Therefore, this study examined the association between everyday levels of dyadic invisible emotional and instrumental support, daily negative affect, and daily smoking after a self-set quit attempt in smoker-non-smoker couples. Overall, 100 smokers (72.0% men, mean age M = 40.48, SD = 9.82) and their non-smoking partners completed electronic diaries from a self-set quit date on for 22 consecutive days, reporting daily invisible emotional and instrumental social support, daily negative affect, and daily smoking. Same-day multilevel analyses showed that at the between-person level, higher individual mean levels of invisible emotional and instrumental support were associated with less daily negative affect. In contrast to our assumption, more receipt of invisible emotional and instrumental support was related to more daily cigarettes smoked. The findings are in line with previous results, indicating invisible support to have beneficial relations with affect. However, results emphasize the need for further prospective daily diary approaches for understanding the dynamics of invisible support on smoking cessation. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? Social support receipt from a close other has proven to have emotional costs. According to current studies, the most effective social support is unnoticed by the receiver (i.e., invisible). There is empirical evidence for beneficial effects of invisible social support on affective well-being. What does this study add? Confirming benefits of invisible social support for negative affect in a health behaviour change setting Providing first evidence for detrimental effects of invisible social support on smoking. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

Daily positive events and diurnal cortisol rhythms: Examination of between-person differences and within-person variation.

Science.gov (United States)

Sin, Nancy L; Ong, Anthony D; Stawski, Robert S; Almeida, David M

2017-09-01

Growing evidence from field studies has linked daily stressors to dysregulated patterns of diurnal cortisol. Less is known about whether naturally-occurring positive events in everyday life are associated with diurnal cortisol. The objectives of this study were to evaluate daily positive events as predictors of between-person differences and within-person (day-to-day) variations in diurnal cortisol parameters, in addition to daily positive events as buffers against the associations between daily stressors and cortisol. In the National Study of Daily Experiences, 1657 adults ages 33-84 (57% female) reported daily experiences during telephone interviews on 8 consecutive evenings. Saliva samples were collected 4 times per day on 4 interview days and assayed for cortisol. Multilevel models were used to estimate associations of daily positive events with cortisol awakening response (CAR), diurnal cortisol slope, and area under the curve (AUC). At the between-person level, people who experienced more frequent positive events exhibited a steeper diurnal cortisol slope, controlling for daily stressors, daily affect, and other covariates. At the within-person level, positive events in the morning (but not prior-night or afternoon/evening events) predicted steeper decline in cortisol across that day; positive events were also marginally associated with lower same-day AUC. Associations were not mediated by daily positive affect, and positive events did not buffer against stressor-related cortisol alterations. These findings indicate that individual differences and day-to-day variations in daily positive events are associated with diurnal cortisol patterns, independent of stressors and affect. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A method for daily global solar radiation estimation from two instantaneous values using MODIS atmospheric products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu, Xiaojun; Du, Huaqiang; Zhou, Guomo; Mao, Fangjie; Li, Pingheng; Fan, Weiliang; Zhu, Dien

2016-01-01

Accurate information on the temporal and spatial distributions of solar radiation is very important in many scientific fields. In this study, instantaneous solar irradiances on a horizontal surface at 10:30 and 13:30 local time (LT) were calculated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) atmospheric data products with relatively high spatial resolution using a solar radiation model. These solar irradiances were combined to derive half-hourly averages of solar irradiance (HASI) and daily global solar radiation (GSR) on a horizontal surface using linear interpolation, piecewise linear regression, and quadratic polynomial regression. Compared with field observations, the HASI were estimated accurately when the total cloud fraction (TCF) was 0.6. Overall, the daily GSR estimated in this study was better than that estimated by the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis of NASA. The daily GSR estimated in this study was underestimated, whereas it was overestimated by MERRA. The combination of the daily GSR estimates of this study and MERRA offers a simple and feasible technique for reducing uncertainty in daily GSR estimates. - Highlights: • Daily GSR is integrated from two observations from the MODIS products. • Daily GSR from the MODIS products is underestimated. • Biases were attributed primarily to variations in the total cloud percent. • Combining daily GSR estimates from the MODIS and the MERRA increases accuracy.

Analysis of the average daily radon variations in the soil air

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holy, K.; Matos, M.; Boehm, R.; Stanys, T.; Polaskova, A.; Hola, O.

1998-01-01

In this contribution the search of the relation between the daily variations of the radon concentration and the regular daily oscillations of the atmospheric pressure are presented. The deviation of the radon activity concentration in the soil air from the average daily value reaches only a few percent. For the dry summer months the average daily course of the radon activity concentration can be described by the obtained equation. The analysis of the average daily courses could give the information concerning the depth of the gas permeable soil layer. The soil parameter is determined by others method with difficulty

Modeling daily soil temperature over diverse climate conditions in Iran—a comparison of multiple linear regression and support vector regression techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Delbari, Masoomeh; Sharifazari, Salman; Mohammadi, Ehsan

2018-02-01

The knowledge of soil temperature at different depths is important for agricultural industry and for understanding climate change. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of a support vector regression (SVR)-based model in estimating daily soil temperature at 10, 30 and 100 cm depth at different climate conditions over Iran. The obtained results were compared to those obtained from a more classical multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The correlation sensitivity for the input combinations and periodicity effect were also investigated. Climatic data used as inputs to the models were minimum and maximum air temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, dew point, and the atmospheric pressure (reduced to see level), collected from five synoptic stations Kerman, Ahvaz, Tabriz, Saghez, and Rasht located respectively in the hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, Mediterranean, and hyper-humid climate conditions. According to the results, the performance of both MLR and SVR models was quite well at surface layer, i.e., 10-cm depth. However, SVR performed better than MLR in estimating soil temperature at deeper layers especially 100 cm depth. Moreover, both models performed better in humid climate condition than arid and hyper-arid areas. Further, adding a periodicity component into the modeling process considerably improved the models' performance especially in the case of SVR.

Forecasting asthma-related hospital admissions in London using negative binomial models.

Science.gov (United States)

Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D; Sarran, Christophe

2013-05-01

Health forecasting can improve health service provision and individual patient outcomes. Environmental factors are known to impact chronic respiratory conditions such as asthma, but little is known about the extent to which these factors can be used for forecasting. Using weather, air quality and hospital asthma admissions, in London (2005-2006), two related negative binomial models were developed and compared with a naive seasonal model. In the first approach, predictive forecasting models were fitted with 7-day averages of each potential predictor, and then a subsequent multivariable model is constructed. In the second strategy, an exhaustive search of the best fitting models between possible combinations of lags (0-14 days) of all the environmental effects on asthma admission was conducted. Three models were considered: a base model (seasonal effects), contrasted with a 7-day average model and a selected lags model (weather and air quality effects). Season is the best predictor of asthma admissions. The 7-day average and seasonal models were trivial to implement. The selected lags model was computationally intensive, but of no real value over much more easily implemented models. Seasonal factors can predict daily hospital asthma admissions in London, and there is a little evidence that additional weather and air quality information would add to forecast accuracy.

Twice-daily versus once-daily applications of pimecrolimus cream 1% for the prevention of disease relapse in pediatric patients with atopic dermatitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruer-Mulard, Mireille; Aberer, Werner; Gunstone, Anthony; Kekki, Outi-Maria; López Estebaranz, Jose Luis; Vertruyen, André; Guettner, Achim; Hultsch, Thomas

2009-01-01

The aim of this study is to compare twice-daily and once-daily applications of pimecrolimus cream 1% for prevention of atopic dermatitis relapses in pediatric patients. This multicenter trial enrolled 300 outpatients aged 2 to 17 years, with mild-to-severe atopic dermatitis. The patients were initially treated with twice-daily topical pimecrolimus until complete clearance or for up to 6 weeks (open-label period). Those who achieved a decrease of at least 1 point in the Investigator's Global Assessment score were then randomized to double-blind treatment with pimecrolimus cream 1% either twice daily or once daily for up to 16 weeks. Study medication was discontinued during periods of disease remission (Investigator's Global Assessment = 0). The primary efficacy end point of the double-blind phase was disease relapse (worsening requiring topical corticosteroids or additional/alternative therapy and confirmed by Investigator's Global Assessment score > or = 3 and pruritus score > or = 2). Of the 300 patients enrolled in the study, 268 were randomized to treatment with pimecrolimus cream 1% either twice daily or once daily (n = 134 in each group). The relapse rate was lower in the twice-daily dose group (9.9%) than that in the once-daily dose group (14.7%), but analysis of the time to disease relapse, using a Cox proportional model to adjust for confounding variables, did not show a statistically significant difference between treatment arms (hazard ratio: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.31-1.30). Treatment of active atopic dermatitis lesions with pimecrolimus cream 1% twice daily, followed by the once-daily dosing regimen, was sufficient to prevent subsequent atopic dermatitis relapses over 16 weeks in pediatric patients.

A model of milk production in lactating dairy cows in relation to energy and nitrogen dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, I R; France, J; Cullen, B R

2016-02-01

A generic daily time-step model of a dairy cow, designed to be included in whole-system pasture simulation models, is described that includes growth, milk production, and lactation in relation to energy and nitrogen dynamics. It is a development of a previously described animal growth and metabolism model that describes animal body composition in terms of protein, water, and fat, and energy dynamics in relation to growth requirements, resynthesis of degraded protein, and animal activity. This is further developed to include lactation and fetal growth. Intake is calculated in relation to stage of lactation, pasture availability, supplementary feed, and feed quality. Energy costs associated with urine N excretion and methane fermentation are accounted for. Milk production and fetal growth are then calculated in relation to the overall energy and nitrogen dynamics. The general behavior of the model is consistent with expected characteristics. Simulations using the model as part of a whole-system pasture simulation model (DairyMod) are compared with experimental data where good agreement between pasture, concentrate and forage intake, as well as milk production over 3 consecutive lactation cycles, is observed. The model is shown to be well suited for inclusion in large-scale system simulation models. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chronic daily headaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fayyaz Ahmed

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Chronic Daily Headache is a descriptive term that includes disorders with headaches on more days than not and affects 4% of the general population. The condition has a debilitating effect on individuals and society through direct cost to healthcare and indirectly to the economy in general. To successfully manage chronic daily headache syndromes it is important to exclude secondary causes with comprehensive history and relevant investigations; identify risk factors that predict its development and recognise its sub-types to appropriately manage the condition. Chronic migraine, chronic tension-type headache, new daily persistent headache and medication overuse headache accounts for the vast majority of chronic daily headaches. The scope of this article is to review the primary headache disorders. Secondary headaches are not discussed except medication overuse headache that often accompanies primary headache disorders. The article critically reviews the literature on the current understanding of daily headache disorders focusing in particular on recent developments in the treatment of frequent headaches.

Improving probabilistic prediction of daily streamflow by identifying Pareto optimal approaches for modelling heteroscedastic residual errors

Science.gov (United States)

David, McInerney; Mark, Thyer; Dmitri, Kavetski; George, Kuczera

2017-04-01

This study provides guidance to hydrological researchers which enables them to provide probabilistic predictions of daily streamflow with the best reliability and precision for different catchment types (e.g. high/low degree of ephemerality). Reliable and precise probabilistic prediction of daily catchment-scale streamflow requires statistical characterization of residual errors of hydrological models. It is commonly known that hydrological model residual errors are heteroscedastic, i.e. there is a pattern of larger errors in higher streamflow predictions. Although multiple approaches exist for representing this heteroscedasticity, few studies have undertaken a comprehensive evaluation and comparison of these approaches. This study fills this research gap by evaluating 8 common residual error schemes, including standard and weighted least squares, the Box-Cox transformation (with fixed and calibrated power parameter, lambda) and the log-sinh transformation. Case studies include 17 perennial and 6 ephemeral catchments in Australia and USA, and two lumped hydrological models. We find the choice of heteroscedastic error modelling approach significantly impacts on predictive performance, though no single scheme simultaneously optimizes all performance metrics. The set of Pareto optimal schemes, reflecting performance trade-offs, comprises Box-Cox schemes with lambda of 0.2 and 0.5, and the log scheme (lambda=0, perennial catchments only). These schemes significantly outperform even the average-performing remaining schemes (e.g., across ephemeral catchments, median precision tightens from 105% to 40% of observed streamflow, and median biases decrease from 25% to 4%). Theoretical interpretations of empirical results highlight the importance of capturing the skew/kurtosis of raw residuals and reproducing zero flows. Recommendations for researchers and practitioners seeking robust residual error schemes for practical work are provided.

Helping motivation and well-being of chronic pain couples: a daily diary study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kindt, Sara; Vansteenkiste, Maarten; Loeys, Tom; Goubert, Liesbet

2016-07-01

Receiving support from a romantic partner may yield benefits for individuals with chronic pain (ICPs), but may also carry unintended side effects. The conditions under which partner support provision yields (mal)adaptive effects deserve greater attention. Grounded in Self-determination theory, partners may provide help for autonomous or volitional (eg, enjoyment, full commitment) or rather controlled or pressured (eg, avoiding guilt and criticism) motives. This study examined associations between day-to-day fluctuations in partners' type of helping motivation and several outcomes, among partners and ICPs. Seventy couples, with 1 partner having chronic pain (75.7% female), completed a diary for 14 consecutive days. Daily helping motivation was assessed together with daily affect, relational conflict, and relationship-based need satisfaction. Partners (Mage = 55.14) additionally reported on daily helping exhaustion, whereas ICPs (Mage = 54.71) reported on daily pain intensity, disability, satisfaction with received help, and amount of received help. Providing autonomous help related to improvements in partners' affective (eg, positive affect), relational (eg, conflict), and help-specific (eg, exhaustion) functioning, which were accounted for by improvements in daily relationship-based psychological need satisfaction. Similarly, daily autonomously motivated help yielded a direct (ie, relational conflict; perceived amount of help) or indirect (ie, positive and negative affects; relational conflict; satisfaction with help, disability) contribution in explaining ICP outcomes-through improvements in ICPs' relationship-based psychological need satisfaction. Findings highlight the importance of a motivational and dynamic perspective on help provision within chronic pain couples. Considering reasons why a partner provides help is important to understand when partners and ICPs may benefit from daily support.

The effect of reproductive performance on the dairy cattle herd value assessed by integrating a daily dynamic programming model with a daily Markov chain model.

Science.gov (United States)

Kalantari, A S; Cabrera, V E

2012-10-01

The objective of this study was to determine the effect of reproductive performance on dairy cattle herd value. Herd value was defined as the herd's average retention payoff (RPO). Individual cow RPO is the expected profit from keeping the cow compared with immediate replacement. First, a daily dynamic programming model was developed to calculate the RPO of all cow states in a herd. Second, a daily Markov chain model was applied to estimate the herd demographics. Finally, the herd value was calculated by aggregating the RPO of all cows in the herd. Cow states were described by 5 milk yield classes (76, 88, 100, 112, and 124% with respect to the average), 9 lactations, 750 d in milk, and 282 d in pregnancy. Five different reproductive programs were studied (RP1 to RP5). Reproductive program 1 used 100% timed artificial insemination (TAI; 42% conception rate for first TAI and 30% for second and later services) and the other programs combined TAI with estrus detection. The proportion of cows receiving artificial insemination after estrus detection ranged from 30 to 80%, and conception rate ranged from 25 to 35%. These 5 reproductive programs were categorized according to their 21-d pregnancy rate (21-d PR), which is an indication of the rate that eligible cows become pregnant every 21 d. The 21-d PR was 17% for RP1, 14% for RP2, 16% for RP3, 18% for RP4, and 20% for RP5. Results showed a positive relationship between 21-d PR and herd value. The most extreme herd value difference between 2 reproductive programs was $77/cow per yr for average milk yield (RP5 - RP2), $13/cow per yr for lowest milk yield (RP5 - RP1), and $160/cow per yr for highest milk yield (RP5 - RP2). Reproductive programs were ranked based on their calculated herd value. With the exception of the best reproductive program (RP5), all other programs showed some level of ranking change according to milk yield. The most dramatic ranking change was observed in RP1, which moved from being the worst ranked

Fewer ups and downs: daily stressors mediate age differences in negative affect.

Science.gov (United States)

Charles, Susan Turk; Luong, Gloria; Almeida, David M; Ryff, Carol; Sturm, Maggie; Love, Gayle

2010-05-01

The current study examined age differences in daily stressors, positive events (uplifts), and their associations with emotional experience among healthy older women. Women (N = 101, 63-93 years old) reported their daily experiences across 1 week. Older age was related to fewer stressors and less frequent negative affect. However, the association between negative affect and age was no longer significant after accounting for the occurrence of daily stressors. Older age was not significantly related to positive affect, although positive uplifts were reported less frequently with age. Findings provide a contextual explanation for emotional experience in very late life, where reduced exposure to stressors partially explains age-related reductions in negative affect.

Development and content validation of a patient-reported endometriosis pain daily diary.

Science.gov (United States)

van Nooten, Floortje E; Cline, Jennifer; Elash, Celeste A; Paty, Jean; Reaney, Matthew

2018-01-04

Endometriosis is a common gynecological disorder that causes inflammation and pelvic pain. Endometriosis-related pain is best captured with patient-reported outcome (PRO) measures, however, assessment of endometriosis-related pain in clinical trials has been difficult in the absence of a reliable and valid PRO instrument. We describe the development of the Endometriosis Pain Daily Diary (EPDD), an electronic PRO developed as a survey instrument to assess endometriosis-related pain and its impact on patients' lives. The EPDD was initially developed on the basis of an existing Endometriosis Pain and Bleeding Diary, a targeted review of relevant literature, clinical expert interviews, and open-ended (concept elicitation) patient interviews in the United States (US) and Japan which captured patients' experience with endometriosis. Cognitive interviews of patients with endometriosis were conducted to evaluate patient comprehension of the EPDD items. A conceptual model of endometriosis was developed, and meetings with US and European regulatory authorities provided feedback for validating the EPDD in the context of clinical trials. Translatability assessments of the EPDD were conducted to confirm its appropriate interpretation and ease of completion across 17 languages. The iterative development progressed through three versions of the instrument. The EPDDv1 included 18 items relating to dysmenorrhea/pelvic pain, dyspareunia and sexual activity, bleeding, hot flashes, daily activities, and use of rescue medication. The EPDDv2 was a larger 43-item survey tested in cognitive interviews and subsequently revised to yield the current 11-item EPDDv3, consisting of five core items relating to dysmenorrhea, non-menstrual pelvic pain, and dyspareunia, and six extension items relating to sexual activity, daily activities, and use of rescue medication. The EPDD is a PRO for the evaluation of endometriosis-related pain and its associated impacts on patients' lives. The EPDD

Solar Radiation Forecasting, Accounting for Daily Variability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roberto Langella

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Radiation forecast accounting for daily and instantaneous variability was pursued by means of a new bi-parametric statistical model that builds on a model previously proposed by the same authors. The statistical model is developed with direct reference to the Liu-Jordan clear sky theoretical expression but is not bound by a specific clear sky model; it accounts separately for the mean daily variability and for the variation of solar irradiance during the day by means of two corrective parameters. This new proposal allows for a better understanding of the physical phenomena and improves the effectiveness of statistical characterization and subsequent simulation of the introduced parameters to generate a synthetic solar irradiance time series. Furthermore, the analysis of the experimental distributions of the two parameters’ data was developed, obtaining opportune fittings by means of parametric analytical distributions or mixtures of more than one distribution. Finally, the model was further improved toward the inclusion of weather prediction information in the solar irradiance forecasting stage, from the perspective of overcoming the limitations of purely statistical approaches and implementing a new tool in the frame of solar irradiance prediction accounting for weather predictions over different time horizons.

An Evaluation of Anxiety Sensitivity, Emotional Dysregulation, and Negative Affectivity among Daily Cigarette Smokers: Relation to Smoking Motives and Barriers to Quitting

OpenAIRE

Gonzalez, Adam; Zvolensky, Michael J.; Vujanovic, Anka A.; Leyro, Teresa M.; Marshall, Erin C.

2008-01-01

The present investigation evaluated the relations between anxiety sensitivity and motivational bases of cigarette smoking, as well as barriers to quitting smoking, above and beyond concurrent substance use, negative affectivity, and emotional dysregulation among a community sample of 189 daily cigarette smokers (46% women; Mage = 24.97 years, SD = 9.78). Results indicated that anxiety sensitivity was significantly related to coping, addictive, and habitual smoking motives, as well as greater ...

Bayesian estimation of extreme flood quantiles using a rainfall-runoff model and a stochastic daily rainfall generator

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, Veber; Fernandes, Wilson

2017-11-01

Extreme flood estimation has been a key research topic in hydrological sciences. Reliable estimates of such events are necessary as structures for flood conveyance are continuously evolving in size and complexity and, as a result, their failure-associated hazards become more and more pronounced. Due to this fact, several estimation techniques intended to improve flood frequency analysis and reducing uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation have been addressed in the literature in the last decades. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework for the indirect estimation of extreme flood quantiles from rainfall-runoff models. In the proposed approach, an ensemble of long daily rainfall series is simulated with a stochastic generator, which models extreme rainfall amounts with an upper-bounded distribution function, namely, the 4-parameter lognormal model. The rationale behind the generation model is that physical limits for rainfall amounts, and consequently for floods, exist and, by imposing an appropriate upper bound for the probabilistic model, more plausible estimates can be obtained for those rainfall quantiles with very low exceedance probabilities. Daily rainfall time series are converted into streamflows by routing each realization of the synthetic ensemble through a conceptual hydrologic model, the Rio Grande rainfall-runoff model. Calibration of parameters is performed through a nonlinear regression model, by means of the specification of a statistical model for the residuals that is able to accommodate autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and nonnormality. By combining the outlined steps in a Bayesian structure of analysis, one is able to properly summarize the resulting uncertainty and estimating more accurate credible intervals for a set of flood quantiles of interest. The method for extreme flood indirect estimation was applied to the American river catchment, at the Folsom dam, in the state of California, USA. Results show that most floods

Jealousy in adolescents' daily lives: How does it relate to interpersonal context and well-being?

Science.gov (United States)

Lennarz, Hannah K; Lichtwarck-Aschoff, Anna; Finkenauer, Catrin; Granic, Isabela

2017-01-01

Past studies have shown that jealousy peaks in adolescence. However, little is known about how and when adolescents experience jealousy in their daily lives. The current study aimed to examine the relation between state jealousy, the more general propensity to feel jealous, the interpersonal contexts in which jealousy arises, and different forms of social comparison. The impact of jealousy on perceptions of well-being was also explored. We used an experience sampling method during two weekends with 68 adolescents (M age  = 13.94; 64.70% girls). Jealousy was common: On average, 90% of our sample experienced jealousy in 20% of the assessments. Adolescents reported more jealousy with peers than with family. Additionally, they experienced more jealousy when in online contexts than when in face-to-face peer contexts. The normative nature of jealousy, its developmental function and relation with well-being, and implications for understanding jealousy triggered in (highly social) online contexts are discussed. Copyright © 2016 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Daily stress, presleep arousal, and sleep in healthy young women: a daily life computerized sleep diary and actigraphy study.

Science.gov (United States)

Winzeler, Katja; Voellmin, Annette; Schäfer, Valérie; Meyer, Andrea H; Cajochen, Christian; Wilhelm, Frank H; Bader, Klaus

2014-03-01

Our study aimed to further elucidate the mediating role of presleep arousal in the relationship between daily stress and sleep by investigating subjective sleep quality and actigraphy-assessed sleep efficiency (SE) on both within- and between-participant levels in a sample of healthy young women. Multilevel modeling was applied on electronically assessed data comprising 14 consecutive nights in 145 healthy young women to assess the relationship between daily stress, presleep (somatic and cognitive) arousal, and sleep on both levels between participants and within participants across days. Higher levels of daily stress were consistently and significantly associated with higher levels of somatic and cognitive arousal. Somatic arousal mediated the relationship between daily stress and worsened subjective sleep quality on the between-participant level, while cognitive arousal mediated the relationship between daily stress and worsened subjective sleep quality on the within-participants level. Unexpectedly, healthy young women showed higher SE following days with above-average stress with somatic arousal mediating this relationship. Our data corroborate the role of presleep arousal mediating the relationship between daily stress and subjective sleep quality. Interestingly this effect was restricted to somatic arousal being relevant on interindividual levels and cognitive arousal on intraindividual levels. For young and healthy individuals who experience high stress and arousal, well-established cognitive-behavioral techniques could be useful to regulate arousal and prevent worse subjective sleep quality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of spatiotemporal prediction models of daily exposure of individuals to ambient nitrogen dioxide and ozone in Montreal, Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Buteau, Stephane; Hatzopoulou, Marianne; Crouse, Dan L; Smargiassi, Audrey; Burnett, Richard T; Logan, Travis; Cavellin, Laure Deville; Goldberg, Mark S

2017-07-01

In previous studies investigating the short-term health effects of ambient air pollution the exposure metric that is often used is the daily average across monitors, thus assuming that all individuals have the same daily exposure. Studies that incorporate space-time exposures of individuals are essential to further our understanding of the short-term health effects of ambient air pollution. As part of a longitudinal cohort study of the acute effects of air pollution that incorporated subject-specific information and medical histories of subjects throughout the follow-up, the purpose of this study was to develop and compare different prediction models using data from fixed-site monitors and other monitoring campaigns to estimate daily, spatially-resolved concentrations of ozone (O 3 ) and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) of participants' residences in Montreal, 1991-2002. We used the following methods to predict spatially-resolved daily concentrations of O 3 and NO 2 for each geographic region in Montreal (defined by three-character postal code areas): (1) assigning concentrations from the nearest monitor; (2) spatial interpolation using inverse-distance weighting; (3) back-extrapolation from a land-use regression model from a dense monitoring survey, and; (4) a combination of a land-use and Bayesian maximum entropy model. We used a variety of indices of agreement to compare estimates of exposure assigned from the different methods, notably scatterplots of pairwise predictions, distribution of differences and computation of the absolute agreement intraclass correlation (ICC). For each pairwise prediction, we also produced maps of the ICCs by these regions indicating the spatial variability in the degree of agreement. We found some substantial differences in agreement across pairs of methods in daily mean predicted concentrations of O 3 and NO 2 . On a given day and postal code area the difference in the concentration assigned could be as high as 131ppb for O 3 and 108ppb

Daily Streamflow Predictions in an Ungauged Watershed in Northern California Using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS): Calibration Challenges when nearby Gauged Watersheds are Hydrologically Dissimilar

Science.gov (United States)

Dhakal, A. S.; Adera, S.

2017-12-01

Accurate daily streamflow prediction in ungauged watersheds with sparse information is challenging. The ability of a hydrologic model calibrated using nearby gauged watersheds to predict streamflow accurately depends on hydrologic similarities between the gauged and ungauged watersheds. This study examines daily streamflow predictions using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) for the largely ungauged San Antonio Creek watershed, a 96 km2 sub-watershed of the Alameda Creek watershed in Northern California. The process-based PRMS model is being used to improve the accuracy of recent San Antonio Creek streamflow predictions generated by two empirical methods. Although San Antonio Creek watershed is largely ungauged, daily streamflow data exists for hydrologic years (HY) 1913 - 1930. PRMS was calibrated for HY 1913 - 1930 using streamflow data, modern-day land use and PRISM precipitation distribution, and gauged precipitation and temperature data from a nearby watershed. The PRMS model was then used to generate daily streamflows for HY 1996-2013, during which the watershed was ungauged, and hydrologic responses were compared to two nearby gauged sub-watersheds of Alameda Creek. Finally, the PRMS-predicted daily flows between HY 1996-2013 were compared to the two empirically-predicted streamflow time series: (1) the reservoir mass balance method and (2) correlation of historical streamflows from 80 - 100 years ago between San Antonio Creek and a nearby sub-watershed located in Alameda Creek. While the mass balance approach using reservoir storage and transfers is helpful for estimating inflows to the reservoir, large discrepancies in daily streamflow estimation can arise. Similarly, correlation-based predicted daily flows which rely on a relationship from flows collected 80-100 years ago may not represent current watershed hydrologic conditions. This study aims to develop a method of streamflow prediction in the San Antonio Creek watershed by examining PRMS

On the probability distribution of daily streamflow in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Blum, Annalise G.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Vogel, Richard M.

2017-06-01

Daily streamflows are often represented by flow duration curves (FDCs), which illustrate the frequency with which flows are equaled or exceeded. FDCs have had broad applications across both operational and research hydrology for decades; however, modeling FDCs has proven elusive. Daily streamflow is a complex time series with flow values ranging over many orders of magnitude. The identification of a probability distribution that can approximate daily streamflow would improve understanding of the behavior of daily flows and the ability to estimate FDCs at ungaged river locations. Comparisons of modeled and empirical FDCs at nearly 400 unregulated, perennial streams illustrate that the four-parameter kappa distribution provides a very good representation of daily streamflow across the majority of physiographic regions in the conterminous United States (US). Further, for some regions of the US, the three-parameter generalized Pareto and lognormal distributions also provide a good approximation to FDCs. Similar results are found for the period of record FDCs, representing the long-term hydrologic regime at a site, and median annual FDCs, representing the behavior of flows in a typical year.

Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

2010-01-01

The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger

Daily self-management and work engagement

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Breevaart, K.; Bakker, A.B.; Demerouti, E.

2014-01-01

The present study adopts a bottom-up approach to work engagement by examining how self-management is related to employees' work engagement on a daily basis. Specifically, we hypothesized that on days that employees use more self-management strategies, they report higher resources at work and in

A comparison of daily evaporation downscaled using WRFDA model and GLEAM dataset over the Iberian Peninsula.

Science.gov (United States)

José González-Rojí, Santos; Sáenz, Jon; Ibarra-Berastegi, Gabriel

2017-04-01

GLEAM dataset was presented a few years ago and since that moment, it has just been used for validation of evaporation in a few places of the world (Australia and Africa). The Iberian Peninsula is composed of different soil types and it is affected by different weather regimes, with different climate regions. It is this feature which makes it a very interesting zone for the study of the meteorological cycle, including evaporation. For that purpose, a numerical downscaling exercise over the Iberian Peninsula was run nesting the WRF model inside ERA Interim. Two model configurations were tested in two experiments spanning the period 2010-2014 after a one-year spin-up (2009). In the first experiment (N), boundary conditions drive the model. The second experiment (D) is configured the same way as the N case, but 3DVAR data assimilation is run every six hours (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) using observations obtained from the PREPBUFR dataset. For both N and D runs and ERA Interim, the evaporation of the model runs was compared to GLEAM v3.0b and v3.0c datasets over the Iberian Peninsula, both at the daily and monthly time scales. GLEAM v3.0a was not used for validation as it uses for forcing radiation and air temperature data from ERA Interim. Results show that the experiment with data assimilation (D) improve the results obtained for N experiment. Moreover, correlations values are comparable to the ones obtained with ERA Interim. However, some negative correlation values are observed at Portuguese and Mediterranean coasts for both WRF runs. All of these problematic points are considered as urban sites by the NOAH land surface model. Because of that, the model is not able to simulate a correct evaporation value. Even with these discrepancies, better results than for ERA Interim are observed for seasonal Biases and daily RMSEs over Iberian Peninsula, obtaining the best values inland. Minimal differences are observed for the two GLEAM datasets selected.

Daily Weather Records

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These daily weather records were compiled from a subset of stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset. A weather record is...

Does leisure time moderate or mediate the effect of daily stress on positive affect? An examination using eight-day diary data

Science.gov (United States)

Qian, Xinyi Lisa; Yarnal, Careen M.; Almeida, David M.

2013-01-01

This study tested the applicability of moderation and mediation models to leisure time as a stress coping resource. Analyzing eight-day diary data (N=2,022), we examined the within-person process of using leisure time to cope with daily stressors. We found that relatively high daily stress frequency, while reducing positive affect, prompted an individual to allocate more time to leisure than usual, which then increased positive affect, thus partially remedying the damage by high daily stress frequency. This within-person process, however, is significantly stronger among those with less leisure time on average than leisure-rich individuals. The findings support a partial counteractive mediation model, demonstrate between-person difference in the within-person coping process, and reveal the importance of positive affect as a coping outcome. PMID:25221350

Does leisure time moderate or mediate the effect of daily stress on positive affect? An examination using eight-day diary data.

Science.gov (United States)

Qian, Xinyi Lisa; Yarnal, Careen M; Almeida, David M

2014-01-01

This study tested the applicability of moderation and mediation models to leisure time as a stress coping resource. Analyzing eight-day diary data (N=2,022), we examined the within -person process of using leisure time to cope with daily stressors. We found that relatively high daily stress frequency, while reducing positive affect, prompted an individual to allocate more time to leisure than usual, which then increased positive affect, thus partially remedying the damage by high daily stress frequency. This within-person process, however, is significantly stronger among those with less leisure time on average than leisure-rich individuals. The findings support a partial counteractive mediation model, demonstrate between-person difference in the within-person coping process, and reveal the importance of positive affect as a coping outcome.

Study on the association between ambient air pollution and daily cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in an urban district of Beijing.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Fengying; Li, Liping; Krafft, Thomas; Lv, Jinmei; Wang, Wuyi; Pei, Desheng

2011-06-01

The association between daily cardiovascular/respiratory mortality and air pollution in an urban district of Beijing was investigated over a 6-year period (January 2003 to December 2008). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the relative importance of the major air pollutants [particulate matter (PM), SO2, NO2] as predictors of daily cardiovascular/respiratory mortality. The time-series studied comprises years with lower level interventions to control air pollution (2003-2006) and years with high level interventions in preparation for and during the Olympics/Paralympics (2007-2008). Concentrations of PM10, SO2, and NO2, were measured daily during the study period. A generalized additive model was used to evaluate daily numbers of cardiovascular/respiratory deaths in relation to each air pollutant, controlling for time trends and meteorological influences such as temperature and relative humidity. The results show that the daily cardiovascular/respiratory death rates were significantly associated with the concentration air pollutants, especially deaths related to cardiovascular disease. The current day effects of PM10 and NO2 were higher than that of single lags (distributed lags) and moving average lags for respiratory disease mortality. The largest RR of SO2 for respiratory disease mortality was in Lag02. For cardiovascular disease mortality, the largest RR was in Lag01 for PM10, and in current day (Lag0) for SO2 and NO2. NO2 was associated with the largest RRs for deaths from both cardiovascular disease and respiratory disease.

Daily physical activity related to aerobic fitness and body fat in an urban sample of children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dencker, M; Thorsson, O; Karlsson, M K

2008-01-01

This study evaluates associations between objectively measured daily physical activity vs aerobic fitness and body fat in children aged 8-11 years. A cross-sectional study of 225 children aged 7.9-11.1 years was performed. Abdominal fat mass (AFM) and total body fat (TBF) were quantified by dual......-energy x-ray absorptiometry. TBF was calculated as percentage of total body mass (BF%). Body fat distribution was calculated as AFM/TBF. Aerobic fitness was measured by indirect calorimetry during a maximal cycle ergometer exercise test. Daily physical activity was assessed by accelerometers for 4 days...... and daily accumulation of moderate-to-vigorous and vigorous activity was calculated. Significant relationships (Pfitness (r=0.38), whereas moderate-to-vigorous activity displayed weaker relationships...

Managing Daily Life

Science.gov (United States)

... Duchenne / Managing Daily Life Print Email Managing Daily Life Environmental accessibility As the person with Duchenne starts ... such as wider doorways and ramps, can make life easier once the person with Duchenne cannot climb ...

A prospective, observational, open-label, multicentre study to investigate the daily treatment practice of ranibizumab in patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Asten, F. van; Evers-Birkenkamp, K.U.; Lith-Verhoeven, J.J. van; Jong-Hesse, Y. de; Hoppenreijs, V.P.T.; Hommersom, R.F.; Scholten, A.M.; Hoyng, C.B.; Klaver, J.H.

2015-01-01

PURPOSE: The HELIOS (Health Economics with Lucentis in Observational Settings) study was designed on request of the Dutch Health Authority for an observational study to assess the effectiveness and safety of ranibizumab for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (wet AMD) in daily practice.

Daily physical-rest activities in relation to nutritional state, metabolism, and quality of life in cancer patients with progressive cachexia.

Science.gov (United States)

Fouladiun, Marita; Körner, Ulla; Gunnebo, Lena; Sixt-Ammilon, Petra; Bosaeus, Ingvar; Lundholm, Kent

2007-11-01

To evaluate daily physical-rest activities in cancer patients losing weight in relation to disease progression. Physical activity-rest rhythms were measured (ActiGraph, armband sensor from BodyMedia) in relation to body composition (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry), energy metabolism, exercise capacity (walking test), and self-scored quality of life (SF-36, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale) in weight-losing outpatients with systemic cancer (71 +/- 2 years, n = 53). Well-nourished, age-matched, and previously hospitalized non-cancer patients served as controls (74 +/- 4 years, n = 8). Middle-aged healthy individuals were used as reference subjects (49 +/- 5 years, n = 23). Quality of life was globally reduced in patients with cancer (P sleep and bed-rest activities did not differ between patients with cancer and age-matched non-cancer patients. Spontaneous physical activity correlated weakly with maximum exercise capacity in univariate analysis (r = 0.41, P < 0.01). Multivariate analysis showed that spontaneous physical activity was related to weight loss, blood hemoglobin concentration, C-reactive protein, and to subjectively scored items of physical functioning and bodily pain (SF-36; P < 0.05-0.004). Anxiety and depression were not related to spontaneous physical activity. Patient survival was predicted only by weight loss and serum albumin levels (P < 0.01), although there was no such prediction for spontaneous physical activity. Daily physical-rest activities represent variables which probably reflect complex mental physiologic and metabolic interactions. Thus, activity-rest monitoring provides a new dimension in the evaluation of medical and drug interventions during palliative treatment of patients with cancer.

Reconstruction of daily erythemal UV radiation values for the last century - The benefit of modelled ozone

Science.gov (United States)

Junk, J.; Feister, U.; Rozanov, E.; Krzyścin, J. W.

2013-05-01

Solar erythemal UV radiation (UVER) is highly relevant for numerous biological processes that affect plants, animals, and human health. Nevertheless, long-term UVER records are scarce. As significant declines in the column ozone concentration were observed in the past and a recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer is anticipated by the middle of the 21st century, there is a strong interest in the temporal variation of UVER time series. Therefore, we combined groundbased measurements of different meteorological variables with modeled ozone data sets to reconstruct time series of daily totals of UVER at the Meteorological Observatory Potsdam, Germany. Artificial neural networks were trained with measured UVER, sunshine duration, the day of year, measured and modeled total column ozone, as well as the minimum solar zenith angle. This allows for the reconstruction of daily totals of UVER for the period from 1901 to 1999. Additionally, analyses of the long-term variations from 1901 until 1999 of the reconstructed, new UVER data set are presented. The time series of monthly and annual totals of UVER provide a long-term meteorological basis for epidemiological investigations in human health and occupational medicine for the region of Potsdam and Berlin. A strong benefit of our ANN-approach is the fact that it can be easily adapted to different geographical locations, as successfully tested in the framework of the COSTAction 726.

Melatonin in octopus (Octopus vulgaris): tissue distribution, daily changes and relation with serotonin and its acid metabolite.

Science.gov (United States)

Muñoz, José L P; López Patiño, Marcos A; Hermosilla, Consuelo; Conde-Sieira, Marta; Soengas, José L; Rocha, Francisco; Míguez, Jesús M

2011-08-01

Information regarding melatonin production in molluscs is very limited. In this study the presence and daily fluctuations of melatonin levels were investigated in hemolymph, retina and nervous system-related structures in the cephalopod Octopus vulgaris. Adult animals were maintained in captivity under natural photoperiod and killed at different times in a regular daily cycle. Levels of melatonin, serotonin (5-HT) and its acid metabolite (5-hydroxyindole acetic acid, 5-HIAA) in the hemolymph, retina, optic lobe, and cerebral ganglion were assayed by HPLC. Melatonin content fluctuated rhythmically in the retina and hemolymph, peaking at night. In the retina, but not in the other neural tissues, the rhythm was opposite to that of 5-HT, which displayed basal levels at night. Also, 5-HIAA levels in the retina were higher during the night, supporting that rhythmic melatonin production could be linked to diurnal changes in 5-HT degradation. The high levels of melatonin found in the retina point to it as the major source of melatonin in octopus; in addition, a large variation of melatonin content was found in the optic lobe with maximal values at night. All these data suggest that melatonin might play a role in the transduction of the light-dark cycle information for adjustment of rhythmic physiological events in cephalopods.

Daily disaggregation of simulated monthly flows using different rainfall datasets in southern Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D.A. Hughes

2015-09-01

New hydrological insights for the region: There are substantial regional differences in the success of the monthly hydrological model, which inevitably affects the success of the daily disaggregation results. There are also regional differences in the success of using global rainfall data sets (Climatic Research Unit (CRU datasets for monthly, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration African Rainfall Climatology, version 2 (ARC2 satellite data for daily. The overall conclusion is that the disaggregation method presents a parsimonious approach to generating daily flow simulations from existing monthly simulations and that these daily flows are likely to be useful for some purposes (e.g. water quality modelling, but less so for others (e.g. peak flow analysis.

Misclassification of fourth-grade children's participation in school-provided meals based on parental responses relative to administrative daily records.

Science.gov (United States)

Baxter, Suzanne Domel; Paxton-Aiken, Amy E; Royer, Julie A; Hitchcock, David B; Guinn, Caroline H; Finney, Christopher J

2014-09-01

Although many studies have relied on parental responses concerning children's school-meal participation, few studies have evaluated parental response accuracy. We investigated misclassification of fourth-grade children's participation in school-meal programs based on parental responses relative to administrative daily records using cross-sectional study data collected for 3 school years (2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07) for 1,100 fourth-grade children (87% black; 52% girls) from 18 schools total in one district. Parents reported children's usual school-meal participation on paper consent forms. The district provided administrative daily records of individual children's school-meal participation. Researchers measured children's weight and height. "Usual participation" in breakfast/lunch was defined as ≥50% of days. Parental responses misclassified 16.3%, 12.8%, 19.8%, and 4.7% of children for participation in breakfast, classroom breakfast, cafeteria breakfast, and lunch, respectively. Parental responses misclassified more children for participation in cafeteria than classroom breakfast (P=0.0008); usual-participant misclassification probabilities were less than nonusual-participant misclassification probabilities for classroom breakfast, cafeteria breakfast, and lunch (Pschool year, breakfast location, and school). Relying on parental responses concerning children's school-meal participation may hamper researchers' abilities to detect relationships that have policy implications for the child nutrition community. The use of administrative daily records of children's school-meal participation is recommended. Copyright © 2014 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accelerometer-measured daily physical activity related to aerobic fitness in children and adolescents

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dencker, Magnus; Andersen, Lars Bo

2011-01-01

Maximum oxygen uptake ([Vdot]O(2PEAK)) is generally considered to be the best single marker for aerobic fitness. While a positive relationship between daily physical activity and aerobic fitness has been established in adults, the relationship appears less clear in children and adolescents...

A prospective, observational, open-label, multicentre study to investigate the daily treatment practice of ranibizumab in patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Asten, Freekje; Evers-Birkenkamp, Kim U.; van Lith-Verhoeven, Janneke J. C.; de Jong-Hesse, Yvonne; Hoppenreijs, Vincent P. T.; Hommersom, Richard F.; Scholten, Agnes M.; Hoyng, Carel B.; Klaver, Johannes H. J.; Klaver, J. H. J.; Hoyng, C. B.; Raijmakers, A. J.; van Lith-Verhoeven, J. J. C.; Rulo, A. H. F.; Verbraak, F. D.; Schlingemann, R. O.; Hommersom, C. F.; de Jong-Hesse, Y.; Bosch-Driessen, E. H.; Smeets, M. H.; Gonçalves, A.; Klomp, H. J.; Hoppenreijs, V. P. T.; Dito, J. J.

2015-01-01

The HELIOS (Health Economics with Lucentis in Observational Settings) study was designed on request of the Dutch Health Authority for an observational study to assess the effectiveness and safety of ranibizumab for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (wet AMD) in daily practice. The HELIOS

Proteasome activity related with the daily physical activity of COPD patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lee KY

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Kang-Yun Lee,1,2,* Tzu-Tao Chen,1,* Ling-Ling Chiang,1,3 Hsiao-Chi Chuang,1,3 Po-Hao Feng,1,2 Wen-Te Liu,1–3 Kuan-Yuan Chen,1 Shu-Chuan Ho1,3 1Division of Pulmonary Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Shuang Ho Hospital, Taipei Medical University, New Taipei City, 2Division of Pulmonary Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, 3School of Respiratory Therapy, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan *These authors contributed equally to this work Background: COPD is a debilitating disease that affects patients’ daily lives. One’s daily physical activity (DPA decreases due to multifactorial causes, and this decrease is correlated with a poor prognosis in COPD patients. Muscle wasting may at least be partly due to increased activity of the ubiquitin proteasome pathway and apoptosis.Methods: This study investigated the relationships among DPA, circulating proteasome activity, and protein carbonyl in COPD patients and healthy subjects (HSs. This study included 57 participants (42 patients and 15 healthy subjects. Ambulatory DPA was measured using actigraphy, and oxygen saturation was measured with a pulse oximeter.Results: COPD patients had lower DPA, lower 6 min walking distance (6MWD, lower delta saturation pulse oxygenation (SpO2 during the 6MWT, and lower delta SpO2 during DPA than HSs. COPD patients had higher proteasome activity and protein carbonyl than HSs. Circulating proteasome activity was significantly negatively correlated with DPA (r=−0.568, P<0.05 in COPD patients, whereas delta SpO2 during the 6MWT was significantly positively correlated with proteasome activity (r=0.685, P<0.05 in HSs. Protein carbonyl was significantly negatively correlated with the body mass index (r=−0.318, P<0.05, mid-arm circumference (r=0.350, P<0.05, calf circumference (r=0.322, P<0.05, forced expiratory volume in the first second (r=−0.441, P<0

Evaluation of disabilities and activities of daily living of war-related bilateral lower extremity amputees.

Science.gov (United States)

Ebrahimzadeh, Mohammad H; Moradi, Ali; Bozorgnia, Shahram; Hallaj-Moghaddam, Mohammad

2016-02-01

Long-term consequences and the activities of daily living of bilateral lower limb amputation are not well documented. The aims of our study were to identify the long-term effects of bilateral lower extremity amputations on daily activities and understand how these amputees cope with their mobility assistive devices. Cross-sectional study. A total of 291 veterans with war bilateral lower limb amputations accepted to participate in a cross-sectional study. The average of follow-up was 25.4 years. A total of 152 amputees (54%) were involved in sports averagely 6.7 h per week. Bilateral amputees walk 10 m by the average of 15 ± 33 s, and they could walk continuously with their prosthesis 315 ± 295 m. They wore their prosthesis 6.8 ± 1.7 days per week and 7.9 ± 8.1 h per day. Of these, 6.7% of bilateral lower limb amputees needed help to wear their prosthesis; 88.3% of amputees used assistant device for walking. According to this survey, 73 (42%) prostheses in right limb were appropriate, 95 (54.6%) needed to be replaced, and 6 (3.4) needed to be fixed. On the left side, it was 76 (42%), 92 (52.0%), and 9 (5.1%), respectively. A total of 203 (74.9%) amputees reported limitations in at least one domain of the activities of daily living. The most common single item that affected the patients was ascending and descending stairs by the score of 66% of normal population. Veterans with bilateral lower limb amputations suffering from vast categories of daily problems. This study and its results confirm that bilateral lower limb amputees have major progressive disabilities in daily activities and their social performance. This should attract the attention of amputees' administrative organizations, social workers, health-care providers and caregiver providers. © The International Society for Prosthetics and Orthotics 2014.

A long range dependent model with nonlinear innovations for simulating daily river flows

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Elek

2004-01-01

Full Text Available We present the analysis aimed at the estimation of flood risks of Tisza River in Hungary on the basis of daily river discharge data registered in the last 100 years. The deseasonalised series has skewed and leptokurtic distribution and various methods suggest that it possesses substantial long memory. This motivates the attempt to fit a fractional ARIMA model with non-Gaussian innovations as a first step. Synthetic streamflow series can then be generated from the bootstrapped innovations. However, there remains a significant difference between the empirical and the synthetic density functions as well as the quantiles. This brings attention to the fact that the innovations are not independent, both their squares and absolute values are autocorrelated. Furthermore, the innovations display non-seasonal periods of high and low variances. This behaviour is characteristic to generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH models. However, when innovations are simulated as GARCH processes, the quantiles and extremes of the discharge series are heavily overestimated. Therefore we suggest to fit a smooth transition GARCH-process to the innovations. In a standard GARCH model the dependence of the variance on the lagged innovation is quadratic whereas in our proposed model it is a bounded function. While preserving long memory and eliminating the correlation from both the generating noise and from its square, the new model is superior to the previously mentioned ones in approximating the probability density, the high quantiles and the extremal behaviour of the empirical river flows.

The Effects of Coarse Particles on Daily Mortality: A Case-Crossover Study in a Subtropical City, Taipei, Taiwan

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Meng-Hsuan Cheng

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Many studies have examined the effects of air pollution on daily mortality over the past two decades. However, information on the relationship between levels of coarse particles (PM2.5–10 and daily mortality is relatively sparse due to the limited availability of monitoring data. Furthermore, the results are inconsistent. In the current study, the association between coarse particle levels and daily mortality in Taipei, Taiwan’s largest city, which has a subtropical climate, was undertaken for the period 2006–2008 using a time-stratified case-crossover analysis. For the single pollutant model (without adjustment for other pollutants, PM2.5–10 showed statistically significant association with total mortality both on warm and cool days, with an interquartile range increase associated with a 11% (95% CI = 6%–17% and 4% (95% CI = 1%–7% rise in number of total deaths, respectively. In two-pollutant models, PM2.5–10 remained significant effects on total mortality after the inclusion of SO2 and O3 both on warm and cool days. We observed no significant associations between PM2.5–10 and daily mortality from respiratory diseases both on warm and cool days. For daily mortality from circulatory diseases, the effect of PM2.5–10 remained significant when SO2 or O3 was added in the regression model both on warm and cool days. Future studies of this type in cities with varying climates and cultures are needed.

Summer outdoor temperature and occupational heat-related illnesses in Quebec (Canada)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adam-Poupart, Ariane; Smargiassi, Audrey; Busque, Marc-Antoine; Duguay, Patrice; Fournier, Michel; Zayed, Joseph; Labrèche, France

2014-01-01

Background: Predicted rise in global mean temperature and intensification of heat waves associated with climate change present an increasing challenge for occupational health and safety. Although important scientific knowledge has been gathered on the health effects of heat, very few studies have focused on quantifying the association between outdoor heat and mortality or morbidity among workers. Objective: To quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer outdoor temperatures. Methods: We modeled 259 heat-related illnesses compensated by the Workers' Compensation Board of Quebec between May and September, from 1998 to 2010, with maximum daily summer outdoor temperatures in 16 health regions of Quebec (Canada) using generalized linear models with negative binomial distributions, and estimated the pooled effect sizes for all regions combined, by sex and age groups, and for different time lags with random-effect models for meta-analyses. Results: The mean daily compensation count was 0.13 for all regions of Quebec combined. The relationship between daily counts of compensations and maximum daily temperatures was log-linear; the pooled incidence rate ratio (IRR) of daily heat-related compensations per 1 °C increase in daily maximum temperatures was 1.419 (95% CI 1.326 to 1.520). Associations were similar for men and women and by age groups. Increases in daily maximum temperatures at lags 1 and 2 and for two and three-day lag averages were also associated with increases in daily counts of compensations (IRRs of 1.206 to 1.471 for every 1 °C increase in temperature). Conclusion: This study is the first to quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer temperatures in Canada. The model (risk function) developed in this study could be useful to improve the assessment of future impacts of predicted summer outdoor temperatures on workers and vulnerable groups, particularly in

Summer outdoor temperature and occupational heat-related illnesses in Quebec (Canada)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Adam-Poupart, Ariane [Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC (Canada); Smargiassi, Audrey [Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC (Canada); Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ), Montreal, QC (Canada); Busque, Marc-Antoine; Duguay, Patrice [Institut de recherche Robert-Sauvé en santé et en sécurité du travail (IRSST), Montreal, QC (Canada); Fournier, Michel [Direction de santé publique, Agence de la santé et des services sociaux de Montréal, Montreal, QC (Canada); Zayed, Joseph [Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC (Canada); Institut de recherche Robert-Sauvé en santé et en sécurité du travail (IRSST), Montreal, QC (Canada); Labrèche, France, E-mail: labreche.france@irsst.qc.ca [Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC (Canada); Institut de recherche Robert-Sauvé en santé et en sécurité du travail (IRSST), Montreal, QC (Canada)

2014-10-15

Background: Predicted rise in global mean temperature and intensification of heat waves associated with climate change present an increasing challenge for occupational health and safety. Although important scientific knowledge has been gathered on the health effects of heat, very few studies have focused on quantifying the association between outdoor heat and mortality or morbidity among workers. Objective: To quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer outdoor temperatures. Methods: We modeled 259 heat-related illnesses compensated by the Workers' Compensation Board of Quebec between May and September, from 1998 to 2010, with maximum daily summer outdoor temperatures in 16 health regions of Quebec (Canada) using generalized linear models with negative binomial distributions, and estimated the pooled effect sizes for all regions combined, by sex and age groups, and for different time lags with random-effect models for meta-analyses. Results: The mean daily compensation count was 0.13 for all regions of Quebec combined. The relationship between daily counts of compensations and maximum daily temperatures was log-linear; the pooled incidence rate ratio (IRR) of daily heat-related compensations per 1 °C increase in daily maximum temperatures was 1.419 (95% CI 1.326 to 1.520). Associations were similar for men and women and by age groups. Increases in daily maximum temperatures at lags 1 and 2 and for two and three-day lag averages were also associated with increases in daily counts of compensations (IRRs of 1.206 to 1.471 for every 1 °C increase in temperature). Conclusion: This study is the first to quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer temperatures in Canada. The model (risk function) developed in this study could be useful to improve the assessment of future impacts of predicted summer outdoor temperatures on workers and vulnerable groups, particularly in

Health professionals perceive teamwork with relatives as an obstacle in their daily work - a focus group interview.

Science.gov (United States)

Laursen, Jannie; Broholm, Malene; Rosenberg, Jacob

2017-09-01

Health professionals must often balance between different rationalities within the hospital organisation. Having adequate time with patients, shorter waiting time and the ability to greater professional autonomy have been shown to help provide a higher quality of care. Empathy and sympathy appear to be crucial components for the health professionals and their relationship to patients. The aim of this study was to explore health professionals' experiences of relatives to critically ill patients in order to identify aspects that may facilitate a better understanding of this teamwork. The study was descriptive and exploratory and had a qualitative design with a phenomenological/hermeneutic orientation for the interviews. Focus group was the chosen methodology. The study comprised 19 health professionals in four focus groups. Two themes emerged from the interviews: the hospital culture does not integrate relatives, and health professionals felt that relatives took their resources and saw them as an obstacle in their daily work. Health professionals felt divided between the system and the individual sphere, which makes it difficult for them to integrate relatives more and see them as participants in a natural teamwork for the benefit of the patient. © 2016 Nordic College of Caring Science.

A combined stochastic analysis of mean daily temperature and diurnal temperature range

Science.gov (United States)

Sirangelo, B.; Caloiero, T.; Coscarelli, R.; Ferrari, E.

2018-03-01

In this paper, a stochastic model, previously proposed for the maximum daily temperature, has been improved for the combined analysis of mean daily temperature and diurnal temperature range. In particular, the procedure applied to each variable sequentially performs the deseasonalization, by means of truncated Fourier series expansions, and the normalization of the temperature data, with the use of proper transformation functions. Then, a joint stochastic analysis of both the climatic variables has been performed by means of a FARIMA model, taking into account the stochastic dependency between the variables, namely introducing a cross-correlation between the standardized noises. The model has been applied to five daily temperature series of southern Italy. After the application of a Monte Carlo simulation procedure, the return periods of the joint behavior of the mean daily temperature and the diurnal temperature range have been evaluated. Moreover, the annual maxima of the temperature excursions in consecutive days have been analyzed for the synthetic series. The results obtained showed different behaviors probably linked to the distance from the sea and to the latitude of the station.

Changes in living arrangement, daily smoking, and risky drinking initiation among young Swiss men: a longitudinal cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bähler, C; Foster, S; Estévez, N; Dey, M; Gmel, G; Mohler-Kuo, M

2016-11-01

The aim of this study was to assess the association between changes in living arrangement and the initiation of daily smoking and monthly risky single-occasion drinking (RSOD) in a cohort of young Swiss men. Longitudinal cohort study. The sample consisted of 4662 young men drawn from the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors who lived with their family at baseline. Follow-up assessments occurred 15 months later. Multiple regression models were adjusted for individual and family factors (family model), as well as for individual and peer-related factors (peer model). Relative to those still living with their parents at follow-up (n = 3845), those who had moved out (n = 817) were considerably more likely to have taken up smoking or RSOD after adjusting for several individual, family, and peer-related variables: OR (daily smoking) = 1.67 (95% CI 1.15-2.41) (P = 0.007) and OR (monthly RSOD) = 1.42 (95% CI 1.08-1.88) (P = 0.012). The strongest family-related predictors of smoking initiation were family structure and the lack of parental regulation and the strongest peer-related factors alcohol/drug problems in peers. Meanwhile, the strongest peer-related predictors of RSOD initiation were peer pressure (misconduct), perceived social support from friends, and perceived social support from a significant other, whereas family factors were not associated with RSOD initiation. Further subanalyses were conducted to examine the impact of different living arrangement changes on substance use initiation and revealed that living with peers at follow-up was associated with the greatest risk. We identified a strong association between moving out of one's parents' home and daily smoking and monthly RSOD initiation in young Swiss men. Moving out to live with peers was an especially strong predictor of substance use initiation. Campaigns that aim to prevent heavy smoking and drinking should be intensified at the end of obligatory school. Copyright © 2016 The Royal

Prediction of Daily Global Solar Radiation by Daily Temperatures and Artificial Neural Networks in Different Climates

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S. I Saedi

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction Global solar radiation is the sum of direct, diffuse, and reflected solar radiation. Weather forecasts, agricultural practices, and solar equipment development are three major fields that need proper information about solar radiation. Furthermore, sun in regarded as a huge source of renewable and clean energy which can be used in numerous applications to get rid of environmental impacts of non-renewable fossil fuels. Therefore, easy and fast estimation of daily global solar radiation would play an effective role is these affairs. Materials and Methods This study aimed at predicting the daily global solar radiation by means of artificial neural network (ANN method, based on easy-to-gain weather data i.e. daily mean, minimum and maximum temperatures. Having a variety of climates with long-term valid weather data, Washington State, located at the northwestern part of USA was chosen for this purpose. It has a total number of 19 weather stations to cover all the State climates. First, a station with the largest number of valid historical weather data (Lind was chosen to develop, validate, and test different ANN models. Three training algorithms i.e. Levenberg – Marquardt (LM, Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG, and Bayesian regularization (BR were tested in one and two hidden layer networks each with up to 20 neurons to derive six best architectures. R, RMSE, MAPE, and scatter plots were considered to evaluate each network in all steps. In order to investigate the generalizability of the best six models, they were tested in other Washington State weather stations. The most accurate and general models was evaluated in an Iran sample weather station which was chosen to be Mashhad. Results and Discussion The variation of MSE for the three training functions in one hidden layer models for Lind station indicated that SCG converged weights and biases in shorter time than LM, and LM did that faster than BR. It means that SCG provided the fastest

Stochastic generation of multi-site daily precipitation focusing on extreme events

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G. Evin

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Many multi-site stochastic models have been proposed for the generation of daily precipitation, but they generally focus on the reproduction of low to high precipitation amounts at the stations concerned. This paper proposes significant extensions to the multi-site daily precipitation model introduced by Wilks, with the aim of reproducing the statistical features of extremely rare events (in terms of frequency and magnitude at different temporal and spatial scales. In particular, the first extended version integrates heavy-tailed distributions, spatial tail dependence, and temporal dependence in order to obtain a robust and appropriate representation of the most extreme precipitation fields. A second version enhances the first version using a disaggregation method. The performance of these models is compared at different temporal and spatial scales on a large region covering approximately half of Switzerland. While daily extremes are adequately reproduced at the stations by all models, including the benchmark Wilks version, extreme precipitation amounts at larger temporal scales (e.g., 3-day amounts are clearly underestimated when temporal dependence is ignored.

A Bigraph Relational Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beauquier, Maxime; Schürmann, Carsten

2011-01-01

In this paper, we present a model based on relations for bigraphical reactive system [Milner09]. Its defining characteristics are that validity and reaction relations are captured as traces in a multi-set rewriting system. The relational model is derived from Milner's graphical definition...

The daily digital practice as a form of self-care: Using photography for everyday well-being.

Science.gov (United States)

Brewster, Liz; Cox, Andrew M

2018-04-01

Interest in the connection between involvement in digital communities and well-being has increased as these communities become more commonplace. Specific models of interaction that affect well-being have emerged; here, we examine one of those models, termed 'digital daily practice'. Digital daily practices involve a commitment to doing one thing - exercise, photography and writing - every day and sharing it online. Participants in these practices agree that they provide an unexpected benefit of improving well-being. This article makes an in-depth examination of one digital daily practice, photo-a-day, using a practice theory framework to understand the affordances it offers for well-being. We engage with the literature on well-being and self-care, critiquing its presentation of well-being as an individual trait. We present data from an ethnographic study including interviews and observations to highlight how photo-a-day as a practice functions as self-care and how communities are formed around it. Photo-a-day is not a simple and uncomplicated practice; rather it is the complex affordances and variance within the practice that relate it to well-being. We conclude that this practice has multi-faceted benefits for improving well-being.

Study on the Association between Ambient Air Pollution and Daily Cardiovascular and Respiratory Mortality in an Urban District of Beijing

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Thomas Krafft

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The association between daily cardiovascular/respiratory mortality and air pollution in an urban district of Beijing was investigated over a 6-year period (January 2003 to December 2008. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the relative importance of the major air pollutants [particulate matter (PM, SO2, NO2] as predictors of daily cardiovascular/respiratory mortality. The time-series studied comprises years with lower level interventions to control air pollution (2003–2006 and years with high level interventions in preparation for and during the Olympics/Paralympics (2007–2008. Concentrations of PM10, SO2, and NO2, were measured daily during the study period. A generalized additive model was used to evaluate daily numbers of cardiovascular/ respiratory deaths in relation to each air pollutant, controlling for time trends and meteorological influences such as temperature and relative humidity. The results show that the daily cardiovascular/respiratory death rates were significantly associated with the concentration air pollutants, especially deaths related to cardiovascular disease. The current day effects of PM10 and NO2 were higher than that of single lags (distributed lags and moving average lags for respiratory disease mortality. The largest RR of SO2 for respiratory disease mortality was in Lag02. For cardiovascular disease mortality, the largest RR was in Lag01 for PM10, and in current day (Lag0 for SO2 and NO2. NO2 was associated with the largest RRs for deaths from both cardiovascular disease and respiratory disease.

A prognostic tool to identify adolescents at high risk of becoming daily smokers

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Paradis Gilles

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The American Academy of Pediatrics advocates that pediatricians should be involved in tobacco counseling and has developed guidelines for counseling. We present a prognostic tool for use by health care practitioners in both clinical and non-clinical settings, to identify adolescents at risk of becoming daily smokers. Methods Data were drawn from the Nicotine Dependence in Teens (NDIT Study, a prospective investigation of 1293 adolescents, initially aged 12-13 years, recruited in 10 secondary schools in Montreal, Canada in 1999. Questionnaires were administered every three months for five years. The prognostic tool was developed using estimated coefficients from multivariable logistic models. Model overfitting was corrected using bootstrap cross-validation. Goodness-of-fit and predictive ability of the models were assessed by R2, the c-statistic, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results The 1-year and 2-year probability of initiating daily smoking was a joint function of seven individual characteristics: age; ever smoked; ever felt like you needed a cigarette; parent(s smoke; sibling(s smoke; friend(s smoke; and ever drank alcohol. The models were characterized by reasonably good fit and predictive ability. They were transformed into user-friendly tables such that the risk of daily smoking can be easily computed by summing points for responses to each item. The prognostic tool is also available on-line at http://episerve.chumontreal.qc.ca/calculation_risk/daily-risk/daily_smokingadd.php. Conclusions The prognostic tool to identify youth at high risk of daily smoking may eventually be an important component of a comprehensive tobacco control system.

Stress from daily hassles in couples: its effects on intradyadic stress, relationship satisfaction, and physical and psychological well-being.

Science.gov (United States)

Falconier, Mariana K; Nussbeck, Fridtjof; Bodenmann, Guy; Schneider, Hulka; Bradbury, Thomas

2015-04-01

According to the systemic-transactional stress model (STM; G. Bodenmann, European Review of Applied Psychology, 1997; 47: 137), extradyadic stress from daily hassles can have a negative impact on the individual psychological and physical health and the couple's relationship. This study is the first one to test the STM propositions in a model that includes both partners' individual and relational outcomes simultaneously. The model also includes actor and partner effects as well as the interdependence between partners' processes. Cross-sectional, self-report data were collected from 110 community couples in Switzerland. Consistent with STM predictions, results from the path model analysis indicate that for actor effects extradyadic stress from daily hassles relates directly to lower psychological (increase in anxiety symptoms) and physical well-being and only indirectly to lower relationship satisfaction through increased intradyadic stress from relationship problems and also through more depressive symptomatology in men. The female extradyadic stress and intradyadic stress had partner effects on the male intradyadic stress and the male relationship satisfaction, respectively. Limitations as well as research and clinical implications for marriage and family therapists are discussed. © 2014 American Association for Marriage and Family Therapy.

Cancer Survivors’ Responses to Daily Stressors: Implications for Quality of Life

Science.gov (United States)

Costanzo, Erin S.; Stawski, Robert S.; Ryff, Carol D.; Coe, Christopher L.; Almeida, David M.

2012-01-01

Objective This study examined cancer survivors’ experience of and responses to challenges and stressors associated with every-day living. The impact of daily stressors on quality of life concerns and cortisol patterns was also investigated. Design Participants were 111 cancer survivors who participated in a national telephone diary study of daily experiences (NSDE). Their responses were compared with those of 111 sociodemographically-matched participants with no cancer history using a multilevel modeling approach. Main Outcome Measures Over an 8-day period, participants completed a daily inventory of the occurrence and impact of stressful events, affect, and physical symptoms. Salivary cortisol was sampled 4 times per day, and indices of awakening response (CAR), diurnal slope, and overall output (AUC) were examined. Results Cancer survivors experienced similar numbers and types of stressful events as the comparison group. While appraisals were largely comparable, cancer survivors showed a modest tendency to perceive stressors as more severe and disruptive, particularly those involving interpersonal tensions. The occurrence of stressors was associated with increased negative affect, decreased positive affect, and increased physical symptoms, but little change in cortisol. Relative to the comparison group, cancer survivors showed less pronounced changes in positive affect and cortisol output when stressors occurred, but a greater increase in negative affect in response to interpersonal conflicts. Conclusions Findings indicate that cancer survivors show a resilient ability to respond to day-to-day stressors and challenges. However, daily stressors can have a significant impact on survivors’ mood and physical symptoms and therefore may be an important intervention target. PMID:22268712

Let It Go: Lingering Negative Affect in Response to Daily Stressors Is Associated With Physical Health Years Later.

Science.gov (United States)

Leger, Kate A; Charles, Susan T; Almeida, David M

2018-03-01

The way we respond to life's daily stressors has strong implications for our physical health. Researchers have documented the detrimental effects of initial emotional reactivity to daily stressors on future physical health outcomes but have yet to examine the effects of emotions that linger after a stressor occurs. The current study investigated how negative affect that lingers the day after a minor stressor occurs is associated with health-related outcomes. Participants ( N = 1,155) in a community-based, nationwide study answered questions about daily stressors and affect across 8 consecutive days and about their physical health almost 10 years later. Multilevel models indicated that people experience heightened levels of negative affect the day after a stressor occurs. Furthermore, higher levels of lingering negative affect are associated with greater numbers of chronic conditions and worse functional limitations 10 years later. Findings suggest that affective recovery from daily stressors has unique importance for long-term physical health.

Multisite stochastic simulation of daily precipitation from copula modeling with a gamma marginal distribution

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Lee, Taesam

2018-05-01

Multisite stochastic simulations of daily precipitation have been widely employed in hydrologic analyses for climate change assessment and agricultural model inputs. Recently, a copula model with a gamma marginal distribution has become one of the common approaches for simulating precipitation at multiple sites. Here, we tested the correlation structure of the copula modeling. The results indicate that there is a significant underestimation of the correlation in the simulated data compared to the observed data. Therefore, we proposed an indirect method for estimating the cross-correlations when simulating precipitation at multiple stations. We used the full relationship between the correlation of the observed data and the normally transformed data. Although this indirect method offers certain improvements in preserving the cross-correlations between sites in the original domain, the method was not reliable in application. Therefore, we further improved a simulation-based method (SBM) that was developed to model the multisite precipitation occurrence. The SBM preserved well the cross-correlations of the original domain. The SBM method provides around 0.2 better cross-correlation than the direct method and around 0.1 degree better than the indirect method. The three models were applied to the stations in the Nakdong River basin, and the SBM was the best alternative for reproducing the historical cross-correlation. The direct method significantly underestimates the correlations among the observed data, and the indirect method appeared to be unreliable.

Daily energy expenditure in free-ranging Gopher Tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus)

Science.gov (United States)

Jodice, P.G.R.; Epperson, D.M.; Visser, G. Henk

2006-01-01

Studies of ecological energetics in chelonians are rare. Here, we report the first measurements of daily energy expenditure (DEE) and water influx rates (WIRs) in free-ranging adult Gopher Tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus). We used the doubly labeled water (DLW) method to measure DEE in six adult tortoises during the non-breeding season in south-central Mississippi, USA. Tortoise DEE ranged from 76.7-187.5 kj/day and WIR ranged from 30.6-93.1 ml H2O/day. Daily energy expenditure did not differ between the sexes, but DEE was positively related to body mass. Water influx rates varied with the interaction of sex and body mass. We used a log/log regression model to assess the allometric relationship between DEE and body mass for Gopher Tortoises, Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii), and Box Turtles (Terrapene carolina), the only chelonians for which DEE has been measured. The slope of this allometric model (0.626) was less than that previously calculated for herbivorous reptiles (0.813), suggesting that chelonians may expend energy at a slower rate per unit of body mass compared to other herbivorous reptiles. We used retrospective power analyses and data from the DLW isotope analyses to develop guidelines for sample sizes and duration of measurement intervals, respectively, for larger-scale energetic studies in this species. ?? 2006 by the American Society of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists.

Daily rainfall-runoff modelling by neural networks in semi-arid zone ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This research work will allow checking efficiency of formal neural networks for flows' modelling of wadi Ouahrane's basin from rainfall-runoff relation which is non-linear. Two models of neural networks were optimized through supervised learning and compared in order to achieve this goal, the first model with input rain, and ...

The challenge of modelling nitrogen management at the field scale: simulation and sensitivity analysis of N2O fluxes across nine experimental sites using DailyDayCent

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fitton, N; Datta, A; Hastings, A; Kuhnert, M; Smith, P; Topp, C F E; Cloy, J M; Rees, R M; Cardenas, L M; Williams, J R; Smith, K; Chadwick, D

2014-01-01

The United Kingdom currently reports nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture using the IPCC default Tier 1 methodology. However Tier 1 estimates have a large degree of uncertainty as they do not account for spatial variations in emissions. Therefore biogeochemical models such as DailyDayCent (DDC) are increasingly being used to provide a spatially disaggregated assessment of annual emissions. Prior to use, an assessment of the ability of the model to predict annual emissions should be undertaken, coupled with an analysis of how model inputs influence model outputs, and whether the modelled estimates are more robust that those derived from the Tier 1 methodology. The aims of the study were (a) to evaluate if the DailyDayCent model can accurately estimate annual N 2 O emissions across nine different experimental sites, (b) to examine its sensitivity to different soil and climate inputs across a number of experimental sites and (c) to examine the influence of uncertainty in the measured inputs on modelled N 2 O emissions. DailyDayCent performed well across the range of cropland and grassland sites, particularly for fertilized fields indicating that it is robust for UK conditions. The sensitivity of the model varied across the sites and also between fertilizer/manure treatments. Overall our results showed that there was a stronger correlation between the sensitivity of N 2 O emissions to changes in soil pH and clay content than the remaining input parameters used in this study. The lower the initial site values for soil pH and clay content, the more sensitive DDC was to changes from their initial value. When we compared modelled estimates with Tier 1 estimates for each site, we found that DailyDayCent provided a more accurate representation of the rate of annual emissions. (paper)

Relationship between daily physical activity and exercise capacity in patients with COPD

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zwerink, Marlies; van der Palen, Jacobus Adrianus Maria; van der Valk, P.; Brusse-Keizer, M.G.J.; Effing, T.W.

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND: Exercise training programmes for patients with COPD are effective in improving exercise capacity. The few trials that have investigated the effects of exercise programmes on daily physical activity show contradictory results. AIM: To investigate the relation between daily physical

Association of total daily physical activity with disability in community-dwelling older persons: a prospective cohort study

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Shah Raj C

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Based on findings primarily using self-report measures, physical activity has been recommended to reduce disability in old age. Collecting objective measures of total daily physical activity in community-dwelling older adults is uncommon, but might enhance the understanding of the relationship of physical activity and disability. We examined whether greater total daily physical activity was associated with less report of disability in the elderly. Methods Data were from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal prospective cohort study of common, age-related, chronic conditions. Total daily physical activity was measured in community-dwelling participants with an average age of 82 using actigraphy for approximately 9 days. Disability was measured via self-reported basic activities of daily living (ADL. The odds ratio and 95% Confidence Interval (CI were determined for the baseline association of total daily physical activity and ADL disability using a logistic regression model adjusted for age, education level, gender and self-report physical activity. In participants without initial report of ADL disability, the hazard ratio and 95% CI were determined for the relationship of baseline total daily physical activity and the development of ADL disability using a discrete time Cox proportional hazard model adjusted for demographics and self-report physical activity. Results In 870 participants, the mean total daily physical activity was 2. 9 × 105 counts/day (range in 105 counts/day = 0.16, 13. 6 and the mean hours/week of self-reported physical activity was 3.2 (SD = 3.6. At baseline, 718 (82.5% participants reported being independent in all ADLs. At baseline, total daily physical activity was protective against disability (OR per 105 counts/day difference = 0.55; 95% CI = 0.47, 0.65. Of the participants without baseline disability, 584 were followed for 3.4 years on average. Each 105 counts/day additional total

Daily survival rate and habitat characteristics of nests of Wilson's Plover

Science.gov (United States)

Zinsser, Elizabeth; Sanders, Felicia J.; Gerard, Patrick D.; Jodice, Patrick G.R.

2017-01-01

We assessed habitat characteristics and measured daily survival rate of 72 nests of Charadrius wilsonia (Wilson's Plover) during 2012 and 2013 on South Island and Sand Island on the central coast of South Carolina. At both study areas, nest sites were located at slightly higher elevations (i.e., small platforms of sand) relative to randomly selected nearby unused sites, and nests at each study area also appeared to be situated to enhance crypsis and/or vigilance. Daily survival rate (DSR) of nests ranged from 0.969 to 0.988 among study sites and years, and the probability of nest survival ranged from 0.405 to 0.764. Flooding and predation were the most common causes of nest failure at both sites. At South Island, DSR was most strongly related to maximum tide height, which suggests that flooding and overwash may be common causes of nest loss for Wilson's Plovers at these study sites. The difference in model results between the 2 nearby study sites may be partially due to more-frequent flooding at Sand Island because of some underlying yet unmeasured physiographic feature. Remaining data gaps for the species include regional assessments of nest and chick survival and habitat requirements during chick rearing.

Analysis and modelling of spatio-temporal properties of daily rainfall over the Danube basin

Science.gov (United States)

Serinaldi, F.; Kilsby, C. G.

2012-04-01

Central and Eastern Europe are prone to severe floods due to heavy rainfall that cause societal and economic damages, ranging from agriculture to water resources, from the insurance/reinsurance sector to the energy industry. To improve the flood risk analysis, a better characterisation and modelling of the rainfall patterns over this area, which involves the Danube river watershed, is strategically important. In this study, we analyse the spatio-temporal properties of a large data set of daily rainfall time series from 15 countries in the Central Eastern Europe through different lagged and non-lagged indices of associations that quantify both the overall dependence and extreme dependence of pairwise observations. We also show that these measures are linked to each other and can be written in a unique and coherent notation within the copula framework. Moreover, the lagged version of these measures allows exploring some important spatio-temporal properties of the rainfall fields. The exploratory analysis is complemented by the preliminary results of a spatio-temporal rainfall simulation performed via a compound model based upon the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) and meta-elliptical multivariate distributions.