WorldWideScience

Sample records for model relating daily

  1. The Earth's Shape and Movements: Teachers' Perception of the Relations Between Daily Observation and Scientific Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Flávia Polati; Leite, Cristina

    2015-07-01

    The Earth’s shape and movements are some of the most common issues in official documents and research studies of astronomy education. Many didactic proposals suggest these issues within observational astronomy. Therefore, we present in this paper some of the main results of a research study of the teachers’ perception of the relations between the knowledge from daily observation and scientific models currently accepted about the “earth’s shape and movements”. Data were obtained in application of the didactic proposal during a teacher training course for teachers from São Paulo, have been constructed with the dynamics “Three Pedagogical Moments” and guided by some of the central ideas of the educator Paulo Freire. The results indicate that a small proportion of teachers seem to understand some of the relations of “apparent contradictions” and “limitations” with the concepts of spatiality, and many of them argued based only on vague phrases or "buzzwords", unconnected to the problem explored. The difficulties of teachers to relate elements of daily observation with scientific models seem to indicate a necessity to approach some these aspects with the astronomical knowledge in the teacher training courses.

  2. Cystic Fibrosis-Related Diabetes (CFRD): Daily Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cystic Fibrosis-Related Diabetes (CFRD): Daily Management September 20, 2011 This Web cast is supported by an unrestricted ... Moran, MD Professor, Pediatric Endocrinology University of Minnesota Cystic Fibrosis-Related Diabetes (CFRD): Daily Management September 20, 2011 ...

  3. Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frei, Christoph; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Déqué, Michel

    2003-01-01

    An evaluation is undertaken of the statistics of daily precipitation as simulated by five regional climate models using comprehensive observations in the region of the European Alps. Four limited area models and one variable-resolution global model are considered, all with a grid spacing of 50 km...

  4. SU-F-R-41: Regularized PCA Can Model Treatment-Related Changes in Head and Neck Patients Using Daily CBCTs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chetvertkov, M; Siddiqui, F; Chetty, I; Kumarasiri, A; Liu, C; Gordon, J

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To use daily cone beam CTs (CBCTs) to develop regularized principal component analysis (PCA) models of anatomical changes in head and neck (H&N) patients, to guide replanning decisions in adaptive radiation therapy (ART). Methods: Known deformations were applied to planning CT (pCT) images of 10 H&N patients to model several different systematic anatomical changes. A Pinnacle plugin was used to interpolate systematic changes over 35 fractions, generating a set of 35 synthetic CTs for each patient. Deformation vector fields (DVFs) were acquired between the pCT and synthetic CTs and random fraction-to-fraction changes were superimposed on the DVFs. Standard non-regularized and regularized patient-specific PCA models were built using the DVFs. The ability of PCA to extract the known deformations was quantified. PCA models were also generated from clinical CBCTs, for which the deformations and DVFs were not known. It was hypothesized that resulting eigenvectors/eigenfunctions with largest eigenvalues represent the major anatomical deformations during the course of treatment. Results: As demonstrated with quantitative results in the supporting document regularized PCA is more successful than standard PCA at capturing systematic changes early in the treatment. Regularized PCA is able to detect smaller systematic changes against the background of random fraction-to-fraction changes. To be successful at guiding ART, regularized PCA should be coupled with models of when anatomical changes occur: early, late or throughout the treatment course. Conclusion: The leading eigenvector/eigenfunction from the both PCA approaches can tentatively be identified as a major systematic change during radiotherapy course when systematic changes are large enough with respect to random fraction-to-fraction changes. In all cases the regularized PCA approach appears to be more reliable at capturing systematic changes, enabling dosimetric consequences to be projected once trends are

  5. SU-F-R-41: Regularized PCA Can Model Treatment-Related Changes in Head and Neck Patients Using Daily CBCTs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chetvertkov, M [Wayne State University, Detroit, MI (United States); Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, MI (United States); Siddiqui, F; Chetty, I; Kumarasiri, A; Liu, C; Gordon, J [Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, MI (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To use daily cone beam CTs (CBCTs) to develop regularized principal component analysis (PCA) models of anatomical changes in head and neck (H&N) patients, to guide replanning decisions in adaptive radiation therapy (ART). Methods: Known deformations were applied to planning CT (pCT) images of 10 H&N patients to model several different systematic anatomical changes. A Pinnacle plugin was used to interpolate systematic changes over 35 fractions, generating a set of 35 synthetic CTs for each patient. Deformation vector fields (DVFs) were acquired between the pCT and synthetic CTs and random fraction-to-fraction changes were superimposed on the DVFs. Standard non-regularized and regularized patient-specific PCA models were built using the DVFs. The ability of PCA to extract the known deformations was quantified. PCA models were also generated from clinical CBCTs, for which the deformations and DVFs were not known. It was hypothesized that resulting eigenvectors/eigenfunctions with largest eigenvalues represent the major anatomical deformations during the course of treatment. Results: As demonstrated with quantitative results in the supporting document regularized PCA is more successful than standard PCA at capturing systematic changes early in the treatment. Regularized PCA is able to detect smaller systematic changes against the background of random fraction-to-fraction changes. To be successful at guiding ART, regularized PCA should be coupled with models of when anatomical changes occur: early, late or throughout the treatment course. Conclusion: The leading eigenvector/eigenfunction from the both PCA approaches can tentatively be identified as a major systematic change during radiotherapy course when systematic changes are large enough with respect to random fraction-to-fraction changes. In all cases the regularized PCA approach appears to be more reliable at capturing systematic changes, enabling dosimetric consequences to be projected once trends are

  6. Modeling maximum daily temperature using a varying coefficient regression model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han Li; Xinwei Deng; Dong-Yum Kim; Eric P. Smith

    2014-01-01

    Relationships between stream water and air temperatures are often modeled using linear or nonlinear regression methods. Despite a strong relationship between water and air temperatures and a variety of models that are effective for data summarized on a weekly basis, such models did not yield consistently good predictions for summaries such as daily maximum temperature...

  7. Stochastic modelling of daily rainfall sequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buishand, T.A.

    1977-01-01

    Rainfall series of different climatic regions were analysed with the aim of generating daily rainfall sequences. A survey of the data is given in I, 1. When analysing daily rainfall sequences one must be aware of the following points:
    a. Seasonality. Because of seasonal variation

  8. Relationship of Dyadic Closeness with Work-Related Stress: A Daily Diary Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavee, Yoav; Ben-Ari, Adital

    2007-01-01

    We examined the association between work-related stress of both spouses and daily fluctuations in their affective states and dyadic closeness. Daily diary data from 169 Israeli dual-earner couples were analyzed using multilevel modeling. The findings indicate that work stress has no direct effect on dyadic closeness but rather is mediated by the…

  9. Developing models for patient flow and daily surge capacity research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asplin, Brent R; Flottemesch, Thomas J; Gordon, Bradley D

    2006-11-01

    Between 1993 and 2003, visits to U.S. emergency departments (EDs) increased by 26%, to a total of 114 million visits annually. At the same time, the number of U.S. EDs decreased by more than 400, and almost 200,000 inpatient hospital beds were taken out of service. In this context, the adequacy of daily surge capacity within the system is clearly an important issue. However, the research agenda on surge capacity thus far has focused primarily on large-scale disasters, such as pandemic influenza or a serious bioterrorism event. The concept of daily surge capacity and its relationship to the broader research agenda on patient flow is a relatively new area of investigation. In this article, the authors begin by describing the overlap between the research agendas on daily surge capacity and patient flow. Next, they propose two models that have potential applications for both daily surge capacity and hospitalwide patient-flow research. Finally, they identify potential research questions that are based on applications of the proposed research models.

  10. Daily rhythm variations of the clock gene PER1 and cancer-related genes during various stages of carcinogenesis in a golden hamster model of buccal mucosa carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye H

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Hua Ye, Kai Yang, Xue-Mei Tan, Xiao-Juan Fu, Han-Xue LiDepartment of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, People’s Republic of ChinaBackground: Recent studies have demonstrated that the clock gene PER1 regulates various tumor-related genes. Abnormal expressions and circadian rhythm alterations of PER1 are closely related to carcinogenesis. However, the dynamic circadian variations of PER1 and tumor-related genes at different stages of carcinogenesis remain unknown. This study was conducted to investigate the daily rhythm variation of PER1 and expression of tumor-related genes VEGF, KI67, C-MYC, and P53 in different stages of carcinogenesis.Materials and methods: Dimethylbenzanthracene was used to establish a golden hamster model of buccal mucosa carcinogenesis. Hamsters with normal buccal mucosa, precancerous lesion, and cancerous lesion were sacrificed at six different time points during a 24-hour period of a day. Pathological examination was conducted using routine hematoxylin and eosin staining. PER1, VEGF, KI67, C-MYC, and P53 mRNAs were detected by real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction, and a cosinor analysis was applied to analyze the daily rhythm.Results: PER1, VEGF, C-MYC, and P53 mRNA exhibited daily rhythmic expression in three carcinogenesis stages, and KI67 mRNA exhibited daily rhythmic expression in the normal and precancerous stages. The daily rhythmic expression of KI67 was not observed in cancerous stages. The mesor and amplitude of PER1 and P53 mRNA expression decreased upon the development of cancer (P<0.05, whereas the mesor and amplitude of VEGF, KI67, and C-MYC mRNA increased upon the development of cancer (P<0.05. Compared with the normal tissues, the acrophases of PER1, VEGF, and C-MYC mRNA occurred earlier, whereas the acrophases of P53 and KI67 mRNA lagged remarkably in the precancerous lesions. In the cancer stage, the acrophases

  11. Modelling and forecasting WIG20 daily returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Silvennoinen, Annestiina; Terasvirta, Timo

    of the model is that the deterministic component is specified before estimating the multiplicative conditional variance component. The resulting model is subjected to misspecification tests and its forecasting performance is compared with that of commonly applied models of conditional heteroskedasticity....

  12. Generalized additive model of air pollution to daily mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, J.; Yang, H.E.

    2005-01-01

    The association of air pollution with daily mortality due to cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, and old age (65 or older) in Seoul, Korea was investigated in 1999 using daily values of TSP, PM10, O 3 , SO 2 , NO 2 , and CO. Generalized additive Poisson models were applied to allow for the highly flexible fitting of daily trends in air pollution as well as nonlinear association with meteorological variables such as temperature, humidity, and wind speed. To estimate the effect of air pollution and weather on mortality, LOESS smoothing was used in generalized additive models. The findings suggest that air pollution levels affect significantly the daily mortality. (orig.)

  13. Is proportion burned severely related to daily area burned?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birch, Donovan S; Morgan, Penelope; Smith, Alistair M S; Kolden, Crystal A; Hudak, Andrew T

    2014-01-01

    The ecological effects of forest fires burning with high severity are long-lived and have the greatest impact on vegetation successional trajectories, as compared to low-to-moderate severity fires. The primary drivers of high severity fire are unclear, but it has been hypothesized that wind-driven, large fire-growth days play a significant role, particularly on large fires in forested ecosystems. Here, we examined the relative proportion of classified burn severity for individual daily areas burned that occurred during 42 large forest fires in central Idaho and western Montana from 2005 to 2007 and 2011. Using infrared perimeter data for wildfires with five or more consecutive days of mapped perimeters, we delineated 2697 individual daily areas burned from which we calculated the proportions of each of three burn severity classes (high, moderate, and low) using the differenced normalized burn ratio as mapped for large fires by the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity project. We found that the proportion of high burn severity was weakly correlated (Kendall τ = 0.299) with size of daily area burned (DAB). Burn severity was highly variable, even for the largest (95th percentile) in DAB, suggesting that other variables than fire extent influence the ecological effects of fires. We suggest that these results do not support the prioritization of large runs during fire rehabilitation efforts, since the underlying assumption in this prioritization is a positive relationship between severity and area burned in a day. (letters)

  14. Time series ARIMA models for daily price of palm oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariff, Noratiqah Mohd; Zamhawari, Nor Hashimah; Bakar, Mohd Aftar Abu

    2015-02-01

    Palm oil is deemed as one of the most important commodity that forms the economic backbone of Malaysia. Modeling and forecasting the daily price of palm oil is of great interest for Malaysia's economic growth. In this study, time series ARIMA models are used to fit the daily price of palm oil. The Akaike Infromation Criterion (AIC), Akaike Infromation Criterion with a correction for finite sample sizes (AICc) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are used to compare between different ARIMA models being considered. It is found that ARIMA(1,2,1) model is suitable for daily price of crude palm oil in Malaysia for the year 2010 to 2012.

  15. Applying the Business Process and Practice Alignment Meta-model: Daily Practices and Process Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ventura Martins Paula

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Business Process Modelling (BPM is one of the most important phases of information system design. Business Process (BP meta-models allow capturing informational and behavioural aspects of business processes. Unfortunately, standard BP meta-modelling approaches focus just on process description, providing different BP models. It is not possible to compare and identify related daily practices in order to improve BP models. This lack of information implies that further research in BP meta-models is needed to reflect the evolution/change in BP. Considering this limitation, this paper introduces a new BP meta-model designed by Business Process and Practice Alignment Meta-model (BPPAMeta-model. Our intention is to present a meta-model that addresses features related to the alignment between daily work practices and BP descriptions. Objectives: This paper intends to present a metamodel which is going to integrate daily work information into coherent and sound process definitions. Methods/Approach: The methodology employed in the research follows a design-science approach. Results: The results of the case study are related to the application of the proposed meta-model to align the specification of a BP model with work practices models. Conclusions: This meta-model can be used within the BPPAM methodology to specify or improve business processes models based on work practice descriptions.

  16. Yearly, seasonal and monthly daily average diffuse sky radiation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kassem, A.S.; Mujahid, A.M.; Turner, D.W.

    1993-01-01

    A daily average diffuse sky radiation regression model based on daily global radiation was developed utilizing two year data taken near Blytheville, Arkansas (Lat. =35.9 0 N, Long. = 89.9 0 W), U.S.A. The model has a determination coefficient of 0.91 and 0.092 standard error of estimate. The data were also analyzed for a seasonal dependence and four seasonal average daily models were developed for the spring, summer, fall and winter seasons. The coefficient of determination is 0.93, 0.81, 0.94 and 0.93, whereas the standard error of estimate is 0.08, 0.102, 0.042 and 0.075 for spring, summer, fall and winter, respectively. A monthly average daily diffuse sky radiation model was also developed. The coefficient of determination is 0.92 and the standard error of estimate is 0.083. A seasonal monthly average model was also developed which has 0.91 coefficient of determination and 0.085 standard error of estimate. The developed monthly daily average and daily models compare well with a selected number of previously developed models. (author). 11 ref., figs., tabs

  17. Modelling of Sub-daily Hydrological Processes Using Daily Time-Step Models: A Distribution Function Approach to Temporal Scaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandel, D. D.; Western, A. W.; Grayson, R. B.

    2004-12-01

    Mismatches in scale between the fundamental processes, the model and supporting data are a major limitation in hydrologic modelling. Surface runoff generation via infiltration excess and the process of soil erosion are fundamentally short time-scale phenomena and their average behaviour is mostly determined by the short time-scale peak intensities of rainfall. Ideally, these processes should be simulated using time-steps of the order of minutes to appropriately resolve the effect of rainfall intensity variations. However, sub-daily data support is often inadequate and the processes are usually simulated by calibrating daily (or even coarser) time-step models. Generally process descriptions are not modified but rather effective parameter values are used to account for the effect of temporal lumping, assuming that the effect of the scale mismatch can be counterbalanced by tuning the parameter values at the model time-step of interest. Often this results in parameter values that are difficult to interpret physically. A similar approach is often taken spatially. This is problematic as these processes generally operate or interact non-linearly. This indicates a need for better techniques to simulate sub-daily processes using daily time-step models while still using widely available daily information. A new method applicable to many rainfall-runoff-erosion models is presented. The method is based on temporal scaling using statistical distributions of rainfall intensity to represent sub-daily intensity variations in a daily time-step model. This allows the effect of short time-scale nonlinear processes to be captured while modelling at a daily time-step, which is often attractive due to the wide availability of daily forcing data. The approach relies on characterising the rainfall intensity variation within a day using a cumulative distribution function (cdf). This cdf is then modified by various linear and nonlinear processes typically represented in hydrological and

  18. Relating precipitation to fronts at a sub-daily basis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hénin, Riccardo; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Gouveia, Célia

    2017-04-01

    High impact events over Western Iberia include precipitation extremes that are cause for concern as they lead to flooding, landslides, extensive property damage and human casualties. These events are usually associated with low pressure systems over the North Atlantic moving eastward towards the European western coasts (Liberato and Trigo, 2014). A method to detect fronts and to associate amounts of precipitation to each front is tested, distinguishing between warm and cold fronts. The 6-hourly ERA-interim 1979-2012 reanalysis with 1°x1° horizontal resolution is used for the purpose. An objective front identification method (the Thermal Method described in Shemm et al., 2014) is applied to locate fronts all over the Northern Hemisphere considering the equivalent potential temperature as thermal parameter to use in the model. On the other hand, we settled a squared search box of tuneable dimension (from 2 to 10 degrees long) to look for a front in the neighbourhood of a grid point affected by precipitation. A sensitivity analysis is performed and the optimal dimension of the box is assessed in order to avoid over(under) estimation of precipitation. This is performed in the light of the variability and typical dynamics of warm/cold frontal systems in the Western Europe region. Afterwards, using the extreme event ranking over Iberia proposed by Ramos et al. (2014) the first ranked extreme events are selected in order to validate the method with specific case studies. Finally, climatological and trend maps of frontal activity are produced both on annual and seasonal scales. Trend maps show a decrease of frontal precipitation over north-western Europe and a slight increase over south-western Europe, mainly due to warm fronts. REFERENCES Liberato M.L.R. and R.M. Trigo (2014) Extreme precipitation events and related impacts in Western Iberia. Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions. IAHS Red Book No 363, 171-176. ISSN: 0144-7815. Ramos A.M., R

  19. Daily Elevations in Dissociative Absorption and Depersonalization in a Nonclinical Sample Are Related to Daily Stress and Psychopathological Symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soffer-Dudek, Nirit

    2017-01-01

    Dissociative experiences are associated with several psychopathological symptoms and are a hindrance to therapeutic gain. Depersonalization-derealization (DEP-DER) is positively associated with stress and anxiety, while absorption and imaginative involvement (ABS), a tendency for total, immersed attention, is commonly referred to as nonpathological dissociation, although it is positively associated with obsessive-compulsive (OC) symptoms. Previous studies in the field have been mainly cross-sectional. The present study aimed to examine these associations rigorously and attempted to determine directionality between dissociation and distress. The current study employed both variable-centered (cross-sectional) and person-centered (longitudinal, within-subjects) analyses of the associations of DEP-DER and ABS with distress. Undergraduate students (N = 184) completed trait questionnaires on dissociation, stress, anxiety, depression, and OC symptoms, and n = 78 also completed questionnaires assessing the same constructs daily for 14 days. Multiple regression and multilevel modeling analyses were conducted. In the cross-sectional phase, DEP-DER was uniquely positively related to anxiety and OC symptoms, and ABS was uniquely positively related to OC symptoms. In the daily diary phase, increases in DEP-DER were related to increases in anxiety, depression, OC symptoms, and stress, while increases in ABS were related to increases in OC symptoms and stress. In addition, time-lag analysis showed that ABS tended to temporally precede OC. ABS foretold increases in OC symptoms, at least in this nonclinical sample. Future studies on clinical samples should explore whether ABS should be referred to as "nonpathological" and its possible role in the development or maintenance of clinical-level OCD.

  20. The Effect of Improved Sub-Daily Earth Rotation Models on Global GPS Data Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, S.; Choi, K. K.

    2017-12-01

    Throughout the various International GNSS Service (IGS) products, strong periodic signals have been observed around the 14 day period. This signal is clearly visible in all IGS time-series such as those related to orbit ephemerides, Earth rotation parameters (ERP) and ground station coordinates. Recent studies show that errors in the sub-daily Earth rotation models are the main factors that induce such noise. Current IGS orbit processing standards adopted the IERS 2010 convention and its sub-daily Earth rotation model. Since the IERS convention had published, recent advances in the VLBI analysis have made contributions to update the sub-daily Earth rotation models. We have compared several proposed sub-daily Earth rotation models and show the effect of using those models on orbit ephemeris, Earth rotation parameters and ground station coordinates generated by the NGS global GPS data processing strategy.

  1. Simulation of daily rainfall through markov chain modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadiq, N.

    2015-01-01

    Being an agricultural country, the inhabitants of dry land in cultivated areas mainly rely on the daily rainfall for watering their fields. A stochastic model based on first order Markov Chain was developed to simulate daily rainfall data for Multan, D. I. Khan, Nawabshah, Chilas and Barkhan for the period 1981-2010. Transitional probability matrices of first order Markov Chain was utilized to generate the daily rainfall occurrence while gamma distribution was used to generate the daily rainfall amount. In order to achieve the parametric values of mentioned cities, method of moments is used to estimate the shape and scale parameters which lead to synthetic sequence generation as per gamma distribution. In this study, unconditional and conditional probabilities of wet and dry days in sum with means and standard deviations are considered as the essential parameters for the simulated stochastic generation of daily rainfalls. It has been found that the computerized synthetic rainfall series concurred pretty well with the actual observed rainfall series. (author)

  2. Reconstruction of missing daily streamflow data using dynamic regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tencaliec, Patricia; Favre, Anne-Catherine; Prieur, Clémentine; Mathevet, Thibault

    2015-12-01

    River discharge is one of the most important quantities in hydrology. It provides fundamental records for water resources management and climate change monitoring. Even very short data-gaps in this information can cause extremely different analysis outputs. Therefore, reconstructing missing data of incomplete data sets is an important step regarding the performance of the environmental models, engineering, and research applications, thus it presents a great challenge. The objective of this paper is to introduce an effective technique for reconstructing missing daily discharge data when one has access to only daily streamflow data. The proposed procedure uses a combination of regression and autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) called dynamic regression model. This model uses the linear relationship between neighbor and correlated stations and then adjusts the residual term by fitting an ARIMA structure. Application of the model to eight daily streamflow data for the Durance river watershed showed that the model yields reliable estimates for the missing data in the time series. Simulation studies were also conducted to evaluate the performance of the procedure.

  3. Neoadjuvant twice daily chemoradiotherapy for esophageal cancer: Treatment-related mortality and long-term outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart E. Samuels, MD, PhD

    2017-07-01

    Conclusion: Neoadjuvant twice-daily chemoradiation for esophageal cancer is a safe and effective alternative to daily fractionation with low treatment-related mortality and long-term outcomes similar to standard fractionation courses.

  4. Daily reservoir inflow forecasting combining QPF into ANNs model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jun; Cheng, Chun-Tian; Liao, Sheng-Li; Wu, Xin-Yu; Shen, Jian-Jian

    2009-01-01

    Daily reservoir inflow predictions with lead-times of several days are essential to the operational planning and scheduling of hydroelectric power system. The demand for quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) is increasing in hydropower operation with the dramatic advances in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. This paper presents a simple and an effective algorithm for daily reservoir inflow predictions which solicits the observed precipitation, forecasted precipitation from QPF as predictors and discharges in following 1 to 6 days as predicted targets for multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (MLP-ANNs) modeling. An improved error back-propagation algorithm with self-adaptive learning rate and self-adaptive momentum coefficient is used to make the supervised training procedure more efficient in both time saving and search optimization. Several commonly used error measures are employed to evaluate the performance of the proposed model and the results, compared with that of ARIMA model, show that the proposed model is capable of obtaining satisfactory forecasting not only in goodness of fit but also in generalization. Furthermore, the presented algorithm is integrated into a practical software system which has been severed for daily inflow predictions with lead-times varying from 1 to 6 days of more than twenty reservoirs operated by the Fujian Province Grid Company, China.

  5. [Comparison of three daily global solar radiation models].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jin-Ming; Fan, Wen-Yi; Zhao, Ying-Hui

    2014-08-01

    Three daily global solar radiation estimation models ( Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al.) were analyzed and compared using data of 13 weather stations from 1982 to 2012 from three northeastern provinces and eastern Inner Mongolia. After cross-validation analysis, the result showed that mean absolute error (MAE) for each model was 1.71, 2.83 and 1.68 MJ x m(-2) x d(-1) respectively, showing that Å-P model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. which used percentage of sunshine had an advantage over Thornton-Running model which didn't use percentage of sunshine. Model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. played a good effect on the situation of non-sunshine, and its MAE and bias percentage were 18.5% and 33.8% smaller than those of Å-P model, respectively. High precision results could be obtained by using the simple linear model of Å-P. Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. overvalued daily global solar radiation by 12.2%, 19.2% and 9.9% respectively. MAE for each station varied little with the spatial change of location, and annual MAE decreased with the advance of years. The reason for this might be that the change of observation accuracy caused by the replacement of radiation instrument in 1993. MAEs for rainy days, non-sunshine days and warm seasons of the three models were greater than those for days without rain, sunshine days and cold seasons respectively, showing that different methods should be used for different weather conditions on estimating solar radiation with meteorological elements.

  6. The Relative Salience of Daily and Enduring Influences on Off-Job Reactions to Work Stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calderwood, Charles; Ackerman, Phillip L

    2016-12-01

    Work stress is an important determinant of employee health and wellness. The occupational health community is recognizing that one contributor to these relationships may be the presence of negative off-job reactivity to work, which we argue involves continued thoughts directed towards work (cognitive reactivity), continued negative mood stemming from work (affective reactivity), and the alteration of post-work behaviours in response to work factors (behavioural reactivity). We explored the relative contributions of daily work stressors, affective traits, and subjective job stress perceptions to negative off-job reactivity. These relationships were evaluated in a study of hospital nurses (n = 75), who completed trait measures and then provided self-assessments of daily work stress and off-job reactions for four work days. The results of several multilevel analyses indicated that a main-effects model best described the data when predicting cognitive, affective, and behavioural reactivity from daily work stressors, affective traits, and subjective job stress perceptions. A series of multilevel dominance analyses revealed that subjective job stress perceptions dominated the prediction of behavioural reactivity, while trait negative affect dominated the prediction of affective reactivity. Theoretical implications and the relative salience of daily and enduring contributors to negative off-job reactivity are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Daily House Price Indices: Construction, Modeling, and Longer-Run Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Patton, Andrew J.; Wang, Wenjing

    We construct daily house price indices for ten major U.S. metropolitan areas. Our calculations are based on a comprehensive database of several million residential property transactions and a standard repeat-sales method that closely mimics the methodology of the popular monthly Case-Shiller house...... price indices. Our new daily house price indices exhibit dynamic features similar to those of other daily asset prices, with mild autocorrelation and strong conditional heteroskedasticity of the corresponding daily returns. A relatively simple multivariate time series model for the daily house price...... index returns, explicitly allowing for commonalities across cities and GARCH effects, produces forecasts of monthly house price changes that are superior to various alternative forecast procedures based on lower frequency data....

  8. Interpolation of daily rainfall using spatiotemporal models and clustering

    KAUST Repository

    Militino, A. F.

    2014-06-11

    Accumulated daily rainfall in non-observed locations on a particular day is frequently required as input to decision-making tools in precision agriculture or for hydrological or meteorological studies. Various solutions and estimation procedures have been proposed in the literature depending on the auxiliary information and the availability of data, but most such solutions are oriented to interpolating spatial data without incorporating temporal dependence. When data are available in space and time, spatiotemporal models usually provide better solutions. Here, we analyse the performance of three spatiotemporal models fitted to the whole sampled set and to clusters within the sampled set. The data consists of daily observations collected from 87 manual rainfall gauges from 1990 to 2010 in Navarre, Spain. The accuracy and precision of the interpolated data are compared with real data from 33 automated rainfall gauges in the same region, but placed in different locations than the manual rainfall gauges. Root mean squared error by months and by year are also provided. To illustrate these models, we also map interpolated daily precipitations and standard errors on a 1km2 grid in the whole region. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.

  9. Interpolation of daily rainfall using spatiotemporal models and clustering

    KAUST Repository

    Militino, A. F.; Ugarte, M. D.; Goicoa, T.; Genton, Marc G.

    2014-01-01

    Accumulated daily rainfall in non-observed locations on a particular day is frequently required as input to decision-making tools in precision agriculture or for hydrological or meteorological studies. Various solutions and estimation procedures have been proposed in the literature depending on the auxiliary information and the availability of data, but most such solutions are oriented to interpolating spatial data without incorporating temporal dependence. When data are available in space and time, spatiotemporal models usually provide better solutions. Here, we analyse the performance of three spatiotemporal models fitted to the whole sampled set and to clusters within the sampled set. The data consists of daily observations collected from 87 manual rainfall gauges from 1990 to 2010 in Navarre, Spain. The accuracy and precision of the interpolated data are compared with real data from 33 automated rainfall gauges in the same region, but placed in different locations than the manual rainfall gauges. Root mean squared error by months and by year are also provided. To illustrate these models, we also map interpolated daily precipitations and standard errors on a 1km2 grid in the whole region. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.

  10. Relative Effects of Daily Feedback and Weekly Feedback on Customer Service Behavior at a Gas Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    So, Yongjoon; Lee, Kyehoon; Oah, Shezeen

    2013-01-01

    The relative effects of daily and weekly feedback on customer service behavior at a gas station were assessed using an ABC within-subjects design. Four critical service behaviors were identified and measured daily. After baseline (A), weekly feedback (B) was introduced, and daily feedback (C) was introduced in the next phase. The results indicated…

  11. Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falcone, Giuseppe; Murru, Maura; Console, Rodolfo; Marzocchi, Warner; Zhuang, Jiancang

    2016-04-01

    We present a retrospective ETAS (Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence) model based on the daily updating of free parameters during the background, the learning and the test phase of a seismic sequence. The idea was born after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Center in Japan provided an appropriate testing benchmark for the five 1-day submitted models. Of all the models, only one was able to successfully predict the number of events that really happened. This result was verified using both the real time and the revised catalogs. The main cause of the failure was in the underestimation of the forecasted events, due to model parameters maintained fixed during the test. Moreover, the absence in the learning catalog of an event similar to the magnitude of the mainshock (M9.0), which drastically changed the seismicity in the area, made the learning parameters not suitable to describe the real seismicity. As an example of this methodological development we show the evolution of the model parameters during the last two strong seismic sequences in Italy: the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Reggio Emilia episodes. The achievement of the model with daily updated parameters is compared with that of same model where the parameters remain fixed during the test time.

  12. Daily relations among affect, urge, targeted naltrexone, and alcohol use in young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bold, Krysten W; Fucito, Lisa M; Corbin, William R; DeMartini, Kelly S; Leeman, Robert F; Kranzler, Henry R; O'Malley, Stephanie S

    2016-10-01

    Heavy drinking among young adults is a serious public health problem. Naltrexone, an opioid antagonist, has been shown to reduce drinking in young adults compared to placebo and can be taken on a targeted (i.e., as needed) basis. Understanding risk factors for drinking and naltrexone effects within-person in young adults may help to optimize the use of targeted naltrexone. The current study was a secondary analysis of daily diary data from 127 (n = 40 female) young adults (age 18-25) enrolled in a double-blind clinical trial of daily (25 mg) plus targeted (25 mg) naltrexone versus placebo. Hierarchical linear models were used to examine the effects of daily affect, urge, and taking targeted medication on same-day risk of drinking to intoxication (defined as estimated blood-alcohol-concentration, BAC ≥ .08 g%). Results indicated urge significantly mediated within-person positive affect-drinking relations on a daily level. Specifically, positive affect was associated with greater urge to drink, which in turn was associated with greater odds of BAC ≥ .08 g%. Furthermore, days of greater positive affect and urge were associated with taking a targeted dose of medication, which reduced the likelihood of intoxication by nearly 23% in the naltrexone group compared to placebo. Gender and family history of alcohol dependence were examined as moderators of these daily level effects. These results provide further evidence of naltrexone's ability to reduce alcohol consumption in young adults and identify potential within-person risk processes related to heavy drinking that could inform alcohol-related interventions for this population. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Forecasting daily meteorological time series using ARIMA and regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murat, Małgorzata; Malinowska, Iwona; Gos, Magdalena; Krzyszczak, Jaromir

    2018-04-01

    The daily air temperature and precipitation time series recorded between January 1, 1980 and December 31, 2010 in four European sites (Jokioinen, Dikopshof, Lleida and Lublin) from different climatic zones were modeled and forecasted. In our forecasting we used the methods of the Box-Jenkins and Holt- Winters seasonal auto regressive integrated moving-average, the autoregressive integrated moving-average with external regressors in the form of Fourier terms and the time series regression, including trend and seasonality components methodology with R software. It was demonstrated that obtained models are able to capture the dynamics of the time series data and to produce sensible forecasts.

  14. Daily Discharge Estimation in Talar River Using Lazy Learning Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zahra Abdollahi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: River discharge as one of the most important hydrology factors has a vital role in physical, ecological, social and economic processes. So, accurate and reliable prediction and estimation of river discharge have been widely considered by many researchers in different fields such as surface water management, design of hydraulic structures, flood control and ecological studies in spetialand temporal scale. Therefore, in last decades different techniques for short-term and long-term estimation of hourly, daily, monthly and annual discharge have been developed for many years. However, short-term estimation models are less sophisticated and more accurate.Various global and local algorithms have been widely used to estimate hydrologic variables. The current study effort to use Lazy Learning approach to evaluate the adequacy of input data in order to follow the variation of discharge and also simulate next-day discharge in Talar River in KasilianBasinwhere is located in north of Iran with an area of 66.75 km2. Lazy learning is a local linear modelling approach in which generalization beyond the training data is delayed until a query is made to the system, as opposed to in eager learning, where the system tries to generalize the training data before receiving queries Materials and Methods: The current study was conducted in Kasilian Basin, where is located in north of Iran with an area of 66.75 km2. The main river of this basin joins to Talar River near Valicbon village and then exit from the watershed. Hydrometric station located near Valicbon village is equipped with Parshall flume and Limnogragh which can record river discharge of about 20 cubic meters per second.In this study, daily data of discharge recorded in Valicbon station related to 2002 to 2012 was used to estimate the discharge of 19 September 2012. The mean annual discharge of considered river was also calculated by using available data about 0.441 cubic meters per second. To

  15. Dynamic Regression Intervention Modeling for the Malaysian Daily Load

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fadhilah Abdrazak

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Malaysia is a unique country due to having both fixed and moving holidays.  These moving holidays may overlap with other fixed holidays and therefore, increase the complexity of the load forecasting activities. The errors due to holidays’ effects in the load forecasting are known to be higher than other factors.  If these effects can be estimated and removed, the behavior of the series could be better viewed.  Thus, the aim of this paper is to improve the forecasting errors by using a dynamic regression model with intervention analysis.   Based on the linear transfer function method, a daily load model consists of either peak or average is developed.  The developed model outperformed the seasonal ARIMA model in estimating the fixed and moving holidays’ effects and achieved a smaller Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE in load forecast.

  16. Estimating daily climatologies for climate indices derived from climate model data and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahlstein, Irina; Spirig, Christoph; Liniger, Mark A; Appenzeller, Christof

    2015-01-01

    Climate indices help to describe the past, present, and the future climate. They are usually closer related to possible impacts and are therefore more illustrative to users than simple climate means. Indices are often based on daily data series and thresholds. It is shown that the percentile-based thresholds are sensitive to the method of computation, and so are the climatological daily mean and the daily standard deviation, which are used for bias corrections of daily climate model data. Sample size issues of either the observed reference period or the model data lead to uncertainties in these estimations. A large number of past ensemble seasonal forecasts, called hindcasts, is used to explore these sampling uncertainties and to compare two different approaches. Based on a perfect model approach it is shown that a fitting approach can improve substantially the estimates of daily climatologies of percentile-based thresholds over land areas, as well as the mean and the variability. These improvements are relevant for bias removal in long-range forecasts or predictions of climate indices based on percentile thresholds. But also for climate change studies, the method shows potential for use. Key Points More robust estimates of daily climate characteristics Statistical fitting approach Based on a perfect model approach PMID:26042192

  17. Spatial interpolation schemes of daily precipitation for hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Y.; Clark, M.R.; Rajagopalan, B.; Leavesley, G.

    2012-01-01

    Distributed hydrologic models typically require spatial estimates of precipitation interpolated from sparsely located observational points to the specific grid points. We compare and contrast the performance of regression-based statistical methods for the spatial estimation of precipitation in two hydrologically different basins and confirmed that widely used regression-based estimation schemes fail to describe the realistic spatial variability of daily precipitation field. The methods assessed are: (1) inverse distance weighted average; (2) multiple linear regression (MLR); (3) climatological MLR; and (4) locally weighted polynomial regression (LWP). In order to improve the performance of the interpolations, the authors propose a two-step regression technique for effective daily precipitation estimation. In this simple two-step estimation process, precipitation occurrence is first generated via a logistic regression model before estimate the amount of precipitation separately on wet days. This process generated the precipitation occurrence, amount, and spatial correlation effectively. A distributed hydrologic model (PRMS) was used for the impact analysis in daily time step simulation. Multiple simulations suggested noticeable differences between the input alternatives generated by three different interpolation schemes. Differences are shown in overall simulation error against the observations, degree of explained variability, and seasonal volumes. Simulated streamflows also showed different characteristics in mean, maximum, minimum, and peak flows. Given the same parameter optimization technique, LWP input showed least streamflow error in Alapaha basin and CMLR input showed least error (still very close to LWP) in Animas basin. All of the two-step interpolation inputs resulted in lower streamflow error compared to the directly interpolated inputs. ?? 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  18. Pain-related Impairment of Daily Activities After Thoracic Surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ringsted, Thomas K; Wildgaard, Kim; Kreiner, Svend

    2013-01-01

    -specific questionnaire for assessment of functional impairment due to PTPS. METHODS:: Activities were obtained from the literature supplemented by interviews with patients and surgeons. The questionnaire was validated using the Rasch model in order to describe an underlying pain impairment scale. RESULTS:: Four of 17...... found. A generalized log-linear Rasch model including local dependence was constructed. Though local dependence influenced reliability, the test-retest reliability estimated under the log-linear Rasch model was high (0.88-0.96). Correlation with items from the Disability of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand...... (quick) questionnaire supported validity (γ=0.46, P...

  19. Less Daily Computer Use is Related to Smaller Hippocampal Volumes in Cognitively Intact Elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silbert, Lisa C; Dodge, Hiroko H; Lahna, David; Promjunyakul, Nutta-On; Austin, Daniel; Mattek, Nora; Erten-Lyons, Deniz; Kaye, Jeffrey A

    2016-01-01

    Computer use is becoming a common activity in the daily life of older individuals and declines over time in those with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). The relationship between daily computer use (DCU) and imaging markers of neurodegeneration is unknown. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between average DCU and volumetric markers of neurodegeneration on brain MRI. Cognitively intact volunteers enrolled in the Intelligent Systems for Assessing Aging Change study underwent MRI. Total in-home computer use per day was calculated using mouse movement detection and averaged over a one-month period surrounding the MRI. Spearman's rank order correlation (univariate analysis) and linear regression models (multivariate analysis) examined hippocampal, gray matter (GM), white matter hyperintensity (WMH), and ventricular cerebral spinal fluid (vCSF) volumes in relation to DCU. A voxel-based morphometry analysis identified relationships between regional GM density and DCU. Twenty-seven cognitively intact participants used their computer for 51.3 minutes per day on average. Less DCU was associated with smaller hippocampal volumes (r = 0.48, p = 0.01), but not total GM, WMH, or vCSF volumes. After adjusting for age, education, and gender, less DCU remained associated with smaller hippocampal volume (p = 0.01). Voxel-wise analysis demonstrated that less daily computer use was associated with decreased GM density in the bilateral hippocampi and temporal lobes. Less daily computer use is associated with smaller brain volume in regions that are integral to memory function and known to be involved early with Alzheimer's pathology and conversion to dementia. Continuous monitoring of daily computer use may detect signs of preclinical neurodegeneration in older individuals at risk for dementia.

  20. Preservice Elementary Mathematics Teachers' Level of Relating Mathematical Concepts in Daily Life Contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akkus, Oylum

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate preservice elementary mathematics teachers' ability of relating mathematical concepts and daily life context. Two research questions were set; what is the preservice elementary mathematics teachers' level of relating mathematical concepts and daily life context regarding to their education year and…

  1. Determination of daily solar ultraviolet radiation using statistical models and artificial neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. J. Barbero

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, two different methodologies are used to develop two models for estimating daily solar UV radiation. The first is based on traditional statistical techniques whereas the second is based on artificial neural network methods. Both models use daily solar global broadband radiation as the only measured input. The statistical model is derived from a relationship between the daily UV and the global clearness indices but modulated by the relative optical air mass. The inputs to the neural network model were determined from a large number of radiometric and atmospheric parameters using the automatic relevance determination method, although only the daily solar global irradiation, daily global clearness index and relative optical air mass were shown to be the optimal input variables. Both statistical and neural network models were developed using data measured at Almería (Spain, a semiarid and coastal climate, and tested against data from Table Mountain (Golden, CO, USA, a mountainous and dry environment. Results show that the statistical model performs adequately in both sites for all weather conditions, especially when only snow-free days at Golden were considered (RMSE=4.6%, MBE= –0.1%. The neural network based model provides the best overall estimates in the site where it has been trained, but presents an inadequate performance for the Golden site when snow-covered days are included (RMSE=6.5%, MBE= –3.0%. This result confirms that the neural network model does not adequately respond on those ranges of the input parameters which were not used for its development.

  2. User modeling and adaptation for daily routines providing assistance to people with special needs

    CERN Document Server

    Martín, Estefanía; Carro, Rosa M

    2013-01-01

    User Modeling and Adaptation for Daily Routines is motivated by the need to bring attention to how people with special needs can benefit from adaptive methods and techniques in their everyday lives. Assistive technologies, adaptive systems and context-aware applications are three well-established research fields. There is, in fact, a vast amount of literature that covers HCI-related issues in each area separately. However, the contributions in the intersection of these areas have been less visible, despite the fact that such synergies may have a great impact on improving daily living.Presentin

  3. Random Modeling of Daily Rainfall and Runoff Using a Seasonal Model and Wavelet Denoising

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-ming Chou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Instead of Fourier smoothing, this study applied wavelet denoising to acquire the smooth seasonal mean and corresponding perturbation term from daily rainfall and runoff data in traditional seasonal models, which use seasonal means for hydrological time series forecasting. The denoised rainfall and runoff time series data were regarded as the smooth seasonal mean. The probability distribution of the percentage coefficients can be obtained from calibrated daily rainfall and runoff data. For validated daily rainfall and runoff data, percentage coefficients were randomly generated according to the probability distribution and the law of linear proportion. Multiplying the generated percentage coefficient by the smooth seasonal mean resulted in the corresponding perturbation term. Random modeling of daily rainfall and runoff can be obtained by adding the perturbation term to the smooth seasonal mean. To verify the accuracy of the proposed method, daily rainfall and runoff data for the Wu-Tu watershed were analyzed. The analytical results demonstrate that wavelet denoising enhances the precision of daily rainfall and runoff modeling of the seasonal model. In addition, the wavelet denoising technique proposed in this study can obtain the smooth seasonal mean of rainfall and runoff processes and is suitable for modeling actual daily rainfall and runoff processes.

  4. Fall-related gait characteristics on the treadmill and in daily life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rispens, Sietse M; Van Dieën, Jaap H; Van Schooten, Kimberley S; Cofré Lizama, L Eduardo; Daffertshofer, Andreas; Beek, Peter J; Pijnappels, Mirjam

    2016-02-02

    Body-worn sensors allow assessment of gait characteristics that are predictive of fall risk, both when measured during treadmill walking and in daily life. The present study aimed to assess differences as well as associations between fall-related gait characteristics measured on a treadmill and in daily life. In a cross-sectional study, trunk accelerations of 18 older adults (72.3 ± 4.5 years) were recorded during walking on a treadmill (Dynaport Hybrid sensor) and during daily life (Dynaport MoveMonitor). A comprehensive set of 32 fall-risk-related gait characteristics was estimated and compared between both settings. For 25 gait characteristics, a systematic difference between treadmill and daily-life measurements was found. Gait was more variable, less symmetric, and less stable during daily life. Fourteen characteristics showed a significant correlation between treadmill and daily-life measurements, including stride time and regularity (0.48  0.25). Gait characteristics revealed less stable, less symmetric, and more variable gait during daily life than on a treadmill, yet about half of the characteristics were significantly correlated between conditions. These results suggest that daily-life gait analysis is sensitive to static personal factors (i.e., physical and cognitive capacity) as well as dynamic situational factors (i.e., behavior and environment), which may both represent determinants of fall risk.

  5. Linear stochastic models for forecasting daily maxima and hourly concentrations of air pollutants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCollister, G M; Wilson, K R

    1975-04-01

    Two related time series models were developed to forecast concentrations of various air pollutants and tested on carbon monoxide and oxidant data for the Los Angeles basin. One model forecasts daily maximum concentrations of a particular pollutant using only past daily maximum values of that pollutant as input. The other model forecasts 1 hr average concentrations using only the past hourly average values. Both are significantly more accurate than persistence, i.e., forecasting for tomorrow what occurred today (or yesterday). Model forecasts for 1972 of the daily instantaneous maxima for total oxidant made using only past pollutant concentration data are more accurate than those made by the Los Angeles APCD using meteorological input as well as pollutant concentrations. Although none of these models forecast as accurately as might be desired for a health warning system, the relative success of simple time series models, even though based solely on pollutant concentration, suggests that models incorporating meteorological data and using either multi-dimensional times series or pattern recognition techniques should be tested.

  6. Health-related aspects of objectively measured daily physical activity in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, Magnus; Andersen, Lars Bo

    2008-01-01

    It is well established that physical inactivity in adults is associated with increased mortality and morbidity. Whether daily physical activity level is related to risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in children has been debated. Furthermore, objective data on the habitual daily physica...... activity. This review summarizes recently published studies that have used accelerometers to measure daily physical activity in children and related activity data to known risk factors for CVD.......It is well established that physical inactivity in adults is associated with increased mortality and morbidity. Whether daily physical activity level is related to risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in children has been debated. Furthermore, objective data on the habitual daily physical...... activity in children have at large been scarce in the literature. The main reason for this is the fact that daily physical activity is very difficult to measure in children. In recent years, a new device, the accelerometer, has emerged as a frequently used instrument for the measurement of daily physical...

  7. Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

    2010-01-01

    The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger

  8. DAILY RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELLING BY NEURAL NETWORKS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    K. Benzineb, M. Remaoun

    2016-09-01

    Sep 1, 2016 ... The hydrologic behaviour modelling of w. Journal of ... i Ouahrane's basin from rainfall-runoff relation which is non-linea networks ... will allow checking efficiency of formal neural networks for flows simulation in semi-arid zone.

  9. Modeling and Predicting the Daily Equatorial Plasma Bubble Activity Using the Tiegcm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, B. A.; Retterer, J. M.; Yizengaw, E.; Wiens, K. C.; Wing, S.; Groves, K. M.; Caton, R. G.; Bridgwood, C.; Francis, M. J.; Terkildsen, M. B.; Norman, R.; Zhang, K.

    2014-12-01

    Describing and understanding the daily variability of Equatorial Plasma Bubble (EPB) occurrence has remained a significant challenge over recent decades. In this study we use the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM), which is driven by solar (F10.7) and geomagnetic (Kp) activity indices, to study daily variations of the linear Rayleigh-Taylor (R-T) instability growth rate in relation to the measured scintillation strength at five longitudinally distributed stations. For locations characterized by generally favorable conditions for EPB growth (i.e., within the scintillation season for that location) we find that the TIEGCM is capable of identifying days when EPB development, determined from the calculated R-T growth rate, is suppressed as a result of geomagnetic activity. Both observed and modeled upward plasma drift indicate that the pre-reversal enhancement scales linearly with Kp from several hours prior, from which it is concluded that even small Kp changes cause significant variations in daily EPB growth. This control of Kp variations on EPB growth prompted an investigation into the use of predicted Kp values from the Wing Kp model over a 2-month equinoctial campaign in 2014. It is found that both the 1-hr and 4-hr predicted Kp values can be reliably used as inputs into the TIEGCM to forecast the EPB growth conditions during scintillation season, when daily EPB variability is governed by the suppression of EPBs on days with increased, but not necessarily high, geomagnetic activity.

  10. The daily commute from work to home: examining employees' experiences in relation to their recovery status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Hooff, Madelon L M

    2015-04-01

    Sufficient recovery after daily effort expenditure at work is important to protect employee health and well-being. However, the role of commuting in the daily effort-recovery process is still not very well understood. The present study aimed to advance insight in this respect by examining if relaxation, detachment, mastery and stressful delays experienced during the commute from work to home affect employees' recovery status after returning home from work and at the end of the evening. Daily job demands were expected to moderate these effects. Serenity and (low) anxiety were included as indicators of employees' recovery status. Data were collected by means of a 5-day daily diary study (three measurements daily) among 76 participants from various industries. Multilevel analyses showed that relaxation was positively and stressful delays were negatively related to employees' recovery status after returning home from work but not to indicators of recovery at the end of the evening. For detachment, similar relations were found but only on days with high job demands. Mastery was not related to employees' recovery status. These findings enhance our insight in the daily effort-recovery cycle and underline the importance of promoting detachment (on demanding workdays) and relaxation on the way home from work. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Daily physical activity and its relation to aerobic fitness in children aged 8-11 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, Magnus; Thorsson, Ola; Karlsson, Magnus K.

    2006-01-01

    and fitness in children has been published, where fitness has been assessed by direct measurement of maximum oxygen uptake and related to daily physical activity intensities by accelerometers. We examined 248 children (140 boys and 108 girls), aged 7.9-11.1 years. Maximum workload and maximal oxygen uptake...... in vigorous physical activity were calculated. VO2PEAK was correlated with mean accelerometer counts (r=0.23 for boys and r=0.23 for girls, both Pactivity (r=0.32 for boys, r=0.30 for girls, both P...Abstract  A positive relationship between daily physical activity and aerobic fitness exists in adults. Studies in children have given conflicting results, possibly because of differences in methods used to assess daily physical activity and fitness. No study regarding daily physical activity...

  12. Forecasting daily political opinion polls using the fractionally cointegrated VAR model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Shibaev, Sergei S.

    We examine forecasting performance of the recent fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model. We use daily polling data of political support in the United Kingdom for 2010-2015 and compare with popular competing models at several forecast horizons. Our findings show that the four...... trend from the model follows the vote share of the UKIP very closely, and we thus interpret it as a measure of Euro-skepticism in public opinion rather than an indicator of the more traditional left-right political spectrum. In terms of prediction of vote shares in the election, forecasts generated...... variants of the FCVAR model considered are generally ranked as the top four models in terms of forecast accuracy, and the FCVAR model significantly outperforms both univariate fractional models and the standard cointegrated VAR (CVAR) model at all forecast horizons. The relative forecast improvement...

  13. Urgency traits moderate daily relations between affect and drinking to intoxication among young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bold, Krysten W; Fucito, Lisa M; DeMartini, Kelly S; Leeman, Robert F; Kranzler, Henry R; Corbin, William R; O'Malley, Stephanie S

    2017-01-01

    Young adults with higher trait urgency (i.e., a tendency to act rashly in response to heightened affect) may be especially vulnerable to heavy drinking. The current study examined 1) the influence of urgency on daily relations between affect and drinking to intoxication, and 2) whether urgency influenced the effectiveness of naltrexone (vs. placebo) for reducing alcohol use. This study is a secondary analysis of data from 126 (n=40 female) heavy drinking young adults, ages 18-25, enrolled in a double-blind, 8-week clinical trial comparing brief motivational intervention and either naltrexone or placebo. Multilevel models examined whether trait urgency moderated daily relations between positive and negative affect and drinking to intoxication, measured by an estimated blood-alcohol concentration (eBAC) at or above the legal limit (≥0.08g%). Person-level interactions examined whether naltrexone was more effective than placebo at reducing the odds of eBAC≥0.08g% for individuals with higher vs. lower trait urgency. On days of greater within-person positive or negative affect, young adults with higher urgency were more likely to drink to intoxication than those with lower urgency. Naltrexone reduced the odds of drinking to intoxication significantly more than placebo, independent of positive or negative urgency. Although naltrexone treatment reduced drinking overall, young adults with higher trait urgency were still at increased risk for hazardous drinking following times of strong positive or negative mood. Targeted interventions are needed to reduce the risk of heavy drinking among young adults with high trait urgency. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Daily stress interacts with trait dissociation to predict sleep-related experiences in young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soffer-Dudek, Nirit; Shahar, Golan

    2011-08-01

    Building on the previously documented effects of stress and dissociation on sleep and dreaming, we examined their interactive role in general sleep-related experiences (GSEs; e.g., nightmares, falling dreams, hypnagogic hallucinations; see Watson, 2001). Stress, sleep quality, and GSEs were assessed daily for 14 days among young adults. Baseline assessment included life stress, sleep quality, psychopathology, dissociation, and related dimensions. Multilevel analyses indicated that daily stress brings about GSEs among highly dissociative young adults. Additionally, baseline trait dissociation predicted within-subject elevation in GSEs when daily stress was high. Flawed sleep-wake transitions, previously linked to dissociation and sleep-related experiences, might account for this effect. © 2011 American Psychological Association

  15. Hospital daily outpatient visits forecasting using a combinatorial model based on ARIMA and SES models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Li; Luo, Le; Zhang, Xinli; He, Xiaoli

    2017-07-10

    Accurate forecasting of hospital outpatient visits is beneficial for the reasonable planning and allocation of healthcare resource to meet the medical demands. In terms of the multiple attributes of daily outpatient visits, such as randomness, cyclicity and trend, time series methods, ARIMA, can be a good choice for outpatient visits forecasting. On the other hand, the hospital outpatient visits are also affected by the doctors' scheduling and the effects are not pure random. Thinking about the impure specialty, this paper presents a new forecasting model that takes cyclicity and the day of the week effect into consideration. We formulate a seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model on a daily time series and then a single exponential smoothing (SES) model on the day of the week time series, and finally establish a combinatorial model by modifying them. The models are applied to 1 year of daily visits data of urban outpatients in two internal medicine departments of a large hospital in Chengdu, for forecasting the daily outpatient visits about 1 week ahead. The proposed model is applied to forecast the cross-sectional data for 7 consecutive days of daily outpatient visits over an 8-weeks period based on 43 weeks of observation data during 1 year. The results show that the two single traditional models and the combinatorial model are simplicity of implementation and low computational intensiveness, whilst being appropriate for short-term forecast horizons. Furthermore, the combinatorial model can capture the comprehensive features of the time series data better. Combinatorial model can achieve better prediction performance than the single model, with lower residuals variance and small mean of residual errors which needs to be optimized deeply on the next research step.

  16. A regional neural network model for predicting mean daily river water temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Tyler; DeWeber, Jefferson Tyrell

    2014-01-01

    Water temperature is a fundamental property of river habitat and often a key aspect of river resource management, but measurements to characterize thermal regimes are not available for most streams and rivers. As such, we developed an artificial neural network (ANN) ensemble model to predict mean daily water temperature in 197,402 individual stream reaches during the warm season (May–October) throughout the native range of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the eastern U.S. We compared four models with different groups of predictors to determine how well water temperature could be predicted by climatic, landform, and land cover attributes, and used the median prediction from an ensemble of 100 ANNs as our final prediction for each model. The final model included air temperature, landform attributes and forested land cover and predicted mean daily water temperatures with moderate accuracy as determined by root mean squared error (RMSE) at 886 training sites with data from 1980 to 2009 (RMSE = 1.91 °C). Based on validation at 96 sites (RMSE = 1.82) and separately for data from 2010 (RMSE = 1.93), a year with relatively warmer conditions, the model was able to generalize to new stream reaches and years. The most important predictors were mean daily air temperature, prior 7 day mean air temperature, and network catchment area according to sensitivity analyses. Forest land cover at both riparian and catchment extents had relatively weak but clear negative effects. Predicted daily water temperature averaged for the month of July matched expected spatial trends with cooler temperatures in headwaters and at higher elevations and latitudes. Our ANN ensemble is unique in predicting daily temperatures throughout a large region, while other regional efforts have predicted at relatively coarse time steps. The model may prove a useful tool for predicting water temperatures in sampled and unsampled rivers under current conditions and future projections of climate

  17. Daily Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using Hybridizing Wavelet and Artificial Neural Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ani Shabri

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A new method based on integrating discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks (WANN model for daily crude oil price forecasting is proposed. The discrete Mallat wavelet transform is used to decompose the crude price series into one approximation series and some details series (DS. The new series obtained by adding the effective one approximation series and DS component is then used as input into the ANN model to forecast crude oil price. The relative performance of WANN model was compared to regular ANN model for crude oil forecasting at lead times of 1 day for two main crude oil price series, West Texas Intermediate (WTI and Brent crude oil spot prices. In both cases, WANN model was found to provide more accurate crude oil prices forecasts than individual ANN model.

  18. Jealousy in adolescents' daily lives: How does it relate to interpersonal context and well-being?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lennarz, H.K.; Lichtwarck-Aschoff, A.; Finkenauer, C.; Granic, I.

    2017-01-01

    Past studies have shown that jealousy peaks in adolescence. However, little is known about how and when adolescents experience jealousy in their daily lives. The current study aimed to examine the relation between state jealousy, the more general propensity to feel jealous, the interpersonal

  19. Effects of V4c-ICL Implantation on Myopic Patients’ Vision-Related Daily Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taixiang Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The new type implantable Collamer lens with a central hole (V4c-ICL is widely used to treat myopia. However, halos occur in some patients after surgery. The aim is to evaluate the effect of V4c-ICL implantation on vision-related daily activities. This retrospective study included 42 patients. Uncorrected visual acuity (UCVA, best corrected visual acuity (BCVA, intraocular pressure (IOP, endothelial cell density (ECD, and vault were recorded and vision-related daily activities were evaluated at 3 months after operation. The average spherical equivalent was -0.12±0.33 D at 3 months after operation. UCVA equal to or better than preoperative BCVA occurred in 98% of eyes. The average BCVA at 3 months after operation was -0.03±0.07 LogMAR, which was significantly better than preoperative BCVA (0.08±0.10 LogMAR (P=0.029. Apart from one patient (2.4% who had difficulty reading computer screens, all patients had satisfactory or very satisfactory results. During the early postoperation, halos occurred in 23 patients (54.8%. However there were no significant differences in the scores of visual functions between patients with and without halos (P>0.05. Patients were very satisfied with their vision-related daily activities at 3 months after operation. The central hole of V4c-ICL does not affect patients’ vision-related daily activities.

  20. Estimated daily salt intake in relation to blood pressure and blood lipids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thuesen, Betina H; Toft, Ulla; Buhelt, Lone P

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Excessive salt intake causes increased blood pressure which is considered the leading risk for premature death. One major challenge when evaluating associations between daily salt intake and markers of non-communicable diseases is that a high daily salt intake correlates with obesity...... 3294 men and women aged 18-69 years from a general population based study in Copenhagen, Denmark. Estimated 24-hour sodium excretion was calculated by measurements of creatinine and sodium concentration in spot urine in combination with information of sex, age, height and weight. The relations...

  1. Depression among unaccompanied minor refugees: the relative contribution of general and acculturation-specific daily hassles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keles, Serap; Friborg, Oddgeir; Idsøe, Thormod; Sirin, Selcuk; Oppedal, Brit

    2016-01-01

    This study is designed to provide an empirical conceptualization of daily hassles among unaccompanied refugees, and whether they might affect mental health of young refugees after resettlement. First, we examined the underlying structure of daily hassles conceptualized as measuring general and acculturation-specific hassles. Second, we examined whether these two distinct categories of daily hassles significantly contribute to depression above and beyond the impact of premigration trauma. The study was based on self-report questionnaire data collected from 895 unaccompanied refugees who had been granted residence in Norway. Using structural equation modeling, the results confirmed the grouping of hassles in two general categories, which explained 43% of the variance in depression. The findings underscore the importance of current life conditions for unaccompanied refugees' mental health.

  2. Caregiver Quality of Life and Daily Functioning in Relation to Ventilating Tube Treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heidemann, Christian Hamilton; Lauridsen, Henrik Hein; Kjeldsen, Anette Drøhse

    2014-01-01

    and to investigate possible predictors for clinical success. STUDY DESIGN: Longitudinal observational study. SETTING: Secondary care units. METHODS: Four hundred ninety-one families were enrolled in the study. The Caregiver Impact Questionnaire was applied in the assessment of caregiver quality of life. Caregivers......OBJECTIVE: Caregiver quality of life and daily functioning may improve after ventilating tube treatment in children with otitis media. The aims of this study are to assess possible changes in caregiver quality of life and daily functioning in relation to ventilating tube treatment...... completed questionnaires at baseline and at 1, 3, 6, 12, and 18 months' follow-up. Variables on caregiver daily functioning comprised 4 weeks' history of number of interrupted nights, absenteeism, cancelled social activities, and doctor visits as a result of otitis media in the child. RESULTS: Response...

  3. The role of patients' explanatory models and daily-lived experience in hypertension self-management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokhour, Barbara G; Cohn, Ellen S; Cortés, Dharma E; Solomon, Jeffrey L; Fix, Gemmae M; Elwy, A Rani; Mueller, Nora; Katz, Lois A; Haidet, Paul; Green, Alexander R; Borzecki, Ann M; Kressin, Nancy R

    2012-12-01

    Uncontrolled hypertension remains a significant problem for many patients. Few interventions to improve patients' hypertension self-management have had lasting effects. Previous work has focused largely on patients' beliefs as predictors of behavior, but little is understood about beliefs as they are embedded in patients' social contexts. This study aims to explore how patients' "explanatory models" of hypertension (understandings of the causes, mechanisms or pathophysiology, course of illness, symptoms and effects of treatment) and social context relate to their reported daily hypertension self-management behaviors. Semi-structured qualitative interviews with a diverse group of patients at two large urban Veterans Administration Medical centers. PARTICIPANTS (OR PATIENTS OR SUBJECTS): African-American, white and Latino Veterans Affairs (VA) primary care patients with uncontrolled blood pressure. We conducted thematic analysis using tools of grounded theory to identify key themes surrounding patients' explanatory models, social context and hypertension management behaviors. Patients' perceptions of the cause and course of hypertension, experiences of hypertension symptoms, and beliefs about the effectiveness of treatment were related to different hypertension self-management behaviors. Moreover, patients' daily-lived experiences, such as an isolated lifestyle, serious competing health problems, a lack of habits and routines, barriers to exercise and prioritizing lifestyle choices, also interfered with optimal hypertension self-management. Designing interventions to improve patients' hypertension self-management requires consideration of patients' explanatory models and their daily-lived experience. We propose a new conceptual model - the dynamic model of hypertension self-management behavior - which incorporates these key elements of patients' experiences.

  4. Do personality traits related to affect regulation predict other tobacco product use among young adult non-daily smokers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brikmanis, Kristin; Petersen, Angela; Doran, Neal

    2017-12-01

    Understanding factors that influence non-cigarette tobacco use is important given these products' prevalence and health risks. The goal of this study was to test the hypothesis that personality traits related to affect regulation would be associated with greater frequency of other tobacco product (OTP) use in a sample of young adult non-daily smokers. Participants (n=518, 51% male) aged 18-24 were non-daily cigarette smokers recruited from the community for a longitudinal study of tobacco use. Personality characteristics (impulsivity, anhedonia, and negative affectivity) were measured at baseline, and participants reported recent tobacco use at baseline and 3, 6, and 9months later. Assessments were conducted online or via mobile phone. Across the 4 assessments, 33-52% of participants reported recent OTP use, with frequency of use decreasing over time. Longitudinal negative binomial regression models indicated that greater sensation seeking and lack of premeditation were associated with more frequent OTP use (psnon-daily cigarette smokers with greater propensity for immediately rewarding behaviors may use OTPs more frequently. Young, non-daily cigarette smokers with high levels of sensation seeking and/or lack of premeditation may be at increased risk for harms related to OTP use and may benefit from prevention and cessation strategies that specifically address affect. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Estimating Daily Evapotranspiration Based on A Model of Evapotranspiration Fraction (EF) for Mixed Pixels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xin, X.; Li, F.; Peng, Z.; Qinhuo, L.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface heterogeneities significantly affect the reliability and accuracy of remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET), and it gets worse for lower resolution data. At the same time, temporal scale extrapolation of the instantaneous latent heat flux (LE) at satellite overpass time to daily ET are crucial for applications of such remote sensing product. The purpose of this paper is to propose a simple but efficient model for estimating daytime evapotranspiration considering heterogeneity of mixed pixels. In order to do so, an equation to calculate evapotranspiration fraction (EF) of mixed pixels was derived based on two key assumptions. Assumption 1: the available energy (AE) of each sub-pixel equals approximately to that of any other sub-pixels in the same mixed pixel within acceptable margin of bias, and as same as the AE of the mixed pixel. It's only for a simpification of the equation, and its uncertainties and resulted errors in estimated ET are very small. Assumption 2: EF of each sub-pixel equals to the EF of the nearest pure pixel(s) of same land cover type. This equation is supposed to be capable of correcting the spatial scale error of the mixed pixels EF and can be used to calculated daily ET with daily AE data.The model was applied to an artificial oasis in the midstream of Heihe River. HJ-1B satellite data were used to estimate the lumped fluxes at the scale of 300 m after resampling the 30-m resolution datasets to 300 m resolution, which was used to carry on the key step of the model. The results before and after correction were compare to each other and validated using site data of eddy-correlation systems. Results indicated that the new model is capable of improving accuracy of daily ET estimation relative to the lumped method. Validations at 12 sites of eddy-correlation systems for 9 days of HJ-1B overpass showed that the R² increased to 0.82 from 0.62; the RMSE decreased to 1.60 MJ/m² from 2.47MJ/m²; the MBE decreased from 1.92 MJ/m² to 1

  6. A Bigraph Relational Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beauquier, Maxime; Schürmann, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we present a model based on relations for bigraphical reactive system [Milner09]. Its defining characteristics are that validity and reaction relations are captured as traces in a multi-set rewriting system. The relational model is derived from Milner's graphical definition...

  7. An empirical model of daily highs and lows of West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Angela W.W.; Wan, Alan T.K.; Kwok, Jerry T.K.

    2010-01-01

    There is a large collection of literature on energy price forecasting, but most studies typically use monthly average or close-to-close daily price data. In practice, the daily price range constructed from the daily high and low also contains useful information on price volatility and is used frequently in technical analysis. The interaction between the daily high and low and the associated daily range has been examined in several recent studies on stock price and exchange rate forecasts. The present paper adopts a similar approach to analyze the behaviour of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price over a ten-year period. We find that daily highs and lows of the WTI oil price are cointegrated, with the error correction term being closely approximated by the daily price range. Two forecasting models, one based on a vector error correction mechanism and the other based on a transfer function framework with the range taken as a driver variable, are presented for forecasting the daily highs and lows. The results show that both of these models offer significant advantages over the naive random walk and univariate ARIMA models in terms of out-of-sample forecast accuracy. A trading strategy that makes use of the daily high and low forecasts is further developed. It is found that this strategy generally yields very reasonable trading returns over an evaluation period of about two years. (author)

  8. Relation of Depression with the Outonomy Elderly Into Activity Life of Daily Living at Timbangan Indralaya

    OpenAIRE

    Muharyani, Putri Widita

    2010-01-01

    Background : Depression is considered as dangeousr for a psychological and physical health, because it was causing for a function discharge of kognitif, emosional and productivities, especially unautonomy of elderly into fill activities life in everytime. This research is done to know the relation of depression with the autonomy into activity of daily Lliving at Kelurahan Timbangan Indralaya. Method : The method was using into this research it was from the analytic of desain Cross Sectional a...

  9. Models as Relational Categories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kokkonen, Tommi

    2017-11-01

    Model-based learning (MBL) has an established position within science education. It has been found to enhance conceptual understanding and provide a way for engaging students in authentic scientific activity. Despite ample research, few studies have examined the cognitive processes regarding learning scientific concepts within MBL. On the other hand, recent research within cognitive science has examined the learning of so-called relational categories. Relational categories are categories whose membership is determined on the basis of the common relational structure. In this theoretical paper, I argue that viewing models as relational categories provides a well-motivated cognitive basis for MBL. I discuss the different roles of models and modeling within MBL (using ready-made models, constructive modeling, and generative modeling) and discern the related cognitive aspects brought forward by the reinterpretation of models as relational categories. I will argue that relational knowledge is vital in learning novel models and in the transfer of learning. Moreover, relational knowledge underlies the coherent, hierarchical knowledge of experts. Lastly, I will examine how the format of external representations may affect the learning of models and the relevant relations. The nature of the learning mechanisms underlying students' mental representations of models is an interesting open question to be examined. Furthermore, the ways in which the expert-like knowledge develops and how to best support it is in need of more research. The discussion and conceptualization of models as relational categories allows discerning students' mental representations of models in terms of evolving relational structures in greater detail than previously done.

  10. Linear and regressive stochastic models for prediction of daily maximum ozone values at Mexico City atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bravo, J. L [Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Nava, M. M [Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Gay, C [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

    2001-07-01

    We developed a procedure to forecast, with 2 or 3 hours, the daily maximum of surface ozone concentrations. It involves the adjustment of Autoregressive Integrated and Moving Average (ARIMA) models to daily ozone maximum concentrations at 10 monitoring atmospheric stations in Mexico City during one-year period. A one-day forecast is made and it is adjusted with the meteorological and solar radiation information acquired during the first 3 hours before the occurrence of the maximum value. The relative importance for forecasting of the history of the process and of meteorological conditions is evaluated. Finally an estimate of the daily probability of exceeding a given ozone level is made. [Spanish] Se aplica un procedimiento basado en la metodologia conocida como ARIMA, para predecir, con 2 o 3 horas de anticipacion, el valor maximo de la concentracion diaria de ozono. Esta basado en el calculo de autorregresiones y promedios moviles aplicados a los valores maximos de ozono superficial provenientes de 10 estaciones de monitoreo atmosferico en la Ciudad de Mexico y obtenidos durante un ano de muestreo. El pronostico para un dia se ajusta con la informacion meteorologica y de radiacion solar correspondiente a un periodo que antecede con al menos tres horas la ocurrencia esperada del valor maximo. Se compara la importancia relativa de la historia del proceso y de las condiciones meteorologicas previas para el pronostico. Finalmente se estima la probabilidad diaria de que un nivel normativo o preestablecido para contingencias de ozono sea rebasado.

  11. The effects of disease-related symptoms on daily function in Wolfram Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doty, Tasha; Foster, Erin R; Marshall, Bess; Ranck, Samantha; Hershey, Tamara

    2017-01-01

    To investigate daily function among individuals with Wolfram Syndrome (WFS) and examine whether any limitations are related to disease-related symptoms. WFS ( n = 31), Type 1 diabetic (T1DM; n = 25), and healthy control (HC; n = 29) participants completed the Pediatric Quality of Life Questionnaire (PEDSQL) Self and Parent Report. PEDSQL domain scores were compared among these groups and between WFS patients with and without specific disease-related symptoms. Relationships between PEDSQL scores and symptom severity as assessed by the Wolfram Unified Rating Scale (WURS) Physical Scale were also examined. Across most domains, the WFS group had lower PEDSQL Self and Parent Report scores than the T1DM and HC groups. WFS participants with urinary, sleep, and temperature regulation problems had lower PEDSQL scores than those without. The WURS Physical Scale correlated with Self and Parent Report PEDSQL domains. WFS group Self and Parent Reports correlated with each other. The WFS group reported lower daily function compared to T1DM and HC groups. Within WFS, worse symptom severity and the specific symptoms of sleep, temperature regulation, and urinary problems were associated with poorer daily function. These findings provide rationale for an increased emphasis on identifying, treating and understanding these less well-known symptoms of WFS.

  12. The effects of disease-related symptoms on daily function in Wolfram Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doty, Tasha; Foster, Erin R.; Marshall, Bess; Ranck, Samantha; Hershey, Tamara

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate daily function among individuals with Wolfram Syndrome (WFS) and examine whether any limitations are related to disease-related symptoms. METHODS: WFS (n = 31), Type 1 diabetic (T1DM; n = 25), and healthy control (HC; n = 29) participants completed the Pediatric Quality of Life Questionnaire (PEDSQL) Self and Parent Report. PEDSQL domain scores were compared among these groups and between WFS patients with and without specific disease-related symptoms. Relationships between PEDSQL scores and symptom severity as assessed by the Wolfram Unified Rating Scale (WURS) Physical Scale were also examined. RESULTS: Across most domains, the WFS group had lower PEDSQL Self and Parent Report scores than the T1DM and HC groups. WFS participants with urinary, sleep, and temperature regulation problems had lower PEDSQL scores than those without. The WURS Physical Scale correlated with Self and Parent Report PEDSQL domains. WFS group Self and Parent Reports correlated with each other. CONCLUSIONS: The WFS group reported lower daily function compared to T1DM and HC groups. Within WFS, worse symptom severity and the specific symptoms of sleep, temperature regulation, and urinary problems were associated with poorer daily function. These findings provide rationale for an increased emphasis on identifying, treating and understanding these less well-known symptoms of WFS. PMID:29130034

  13. [Development of social activities-related daily life satisfaction scale for the elderly and evaluation of its reliability and validity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okamoto, Hideaki

    2010-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a Social Activities-Related Daily Life Satisfaction Scale specifically applicable to elderly people in communities and to evaluate its reliability and validity. Sixteen items were extracted from an initial pool and assessed for inclusion in the scale by correlation and exploratory factor analyses. To confirm validity, confirmatory factor analysis was conducted and correlation coefficients were calculated. In addition, t-tests were performed in order to generate scores of the subscale related to activity. To prove reliability, Cronbach's coefficient alpha values were calculated. Data for 755 older adults aged 65 to 84 years were obtained from a mail survey in Ichikawa City, Chiba Prefecture. Exploratory factor analyses indicated that four factors, "satisfaction with learning" (four items), "satisfaction with usefulness to others and society" (four items), "satisfaction with health and physical strength" (three items), and "satisfaction with friends" (three items) should be extracted. Confirmatory factor analysis for assessing the 14-item four-factor model showed high goodness of fit indices (GFI = 0.943, AGFI = 0.915, RMSEA = 0.068). Concurrent validity was established by comparing the score of the scale with five external variables (Activity and Daily Life Satisfaction Scale for the Elderly, Life Satisfaction Index K, etc). Student's t-tests revealed that each score of the subscale was positively associated with activity variable. The overall Cronbach's coefficient alpha for the scale was 0.919 and for its four subscales values ranged from 0.814 to 0.887. A Social Activities-Related Daily Life Satisfaction Scale was derived consisting of four subscales, "satisfaction with learning", "satisfaction with usefulness to others and society", "satisfaction with health and physical strength", and "satisfaction with friends". The results of the present study suggested that the Social Activities-Related Daily Life Satisfaction Scale

  14. Instantaneous-to-daily GPP upscaling schemes based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model: correcting the overestimation of GPP by directly using daily average meteorological inputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fumin; Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Black, T Andrew; Zhou, Bin

    2014-11-01

    Daily canopy photosynthesis is usually temporally upscaled from instantaneous (i.e., seconds) photosynthesis rate. The nonlinear response of photosynthesis to meteorological variables makes the temporal scaling a significant challenge. In this study, two temporal upscaling schemes of daily photosynthesis, the integrated daily model (IDM) and the segmented daily model (SDM), are presented by considering the diurnal variations of meteorological variables based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model. The two models, as well as a simple average daily model (SADM) with daily average meteorological inputs, were validated using the tower-derived gross primary production (GPP) to assess their abilities in simulating daily photosynthesis. The results showed IDM closely followed the seasonal trend of the tower-derived GPP with an average RMSE of 1.63 g C m(-2) day(-1), and an average Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E) of 0.87. SDM performed similarly to IDM in GPP simulation but decreased the computation time by >66%. SADM overestimated daily GPP by about 15% during the growing season compared to IDM. Both IDM and SDM greatly decreased the overestimation by SADM, and improved the simulation of daily GPP by reducing the RMSE by 34 and 30%, respectively. The results indicated that IDM and SDM are useful temporal upscaling approaches, and both are superior to SADM in daily GPP simulation because they take into account the diurnally varying responses of photosynthesis to meteorological variables. SDM is computationally more efficient, and therefore more suitable for long-term and large-scale GPP simulations.

  15. time series modeling of daily abandoned calls in a call centre

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DJFLEX

    Models for evaluating and predicting the short periodic time series in daily ... Ugwuowo (2006) proposed asymmetric angular- linear multivariate regression models, ..... Using the parameter estimates in Table 3, the fitted Fourier series model is ..... For the SARIMA model with the stochastic component also being white noise, ...

  16. Modeling daily soil salinity dynamics in response to agricultural and environmental changes in coastal Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payo, Andrés.; Lázár, Attila N.; Clarke, Derek; Nicholls, Robert J.; Bricheno, Lucy; Mashfiqus, Salehin; Haque, Anisul

    2017-05-01

    Understanding the dynamics of salt movement in the soil is a prerequisite for devising appropriate management strategies for land productivity of coastal regions, especially low-lying delta regions, which support many millions of farmers around the world. At present, there are no numerical models able to resolve soil salinity at regional scale and at daily time steps. In this research, we develop a novel holistic approach to simulate soil salinization comprising an emulator-based soil salt and water balance calculated at daily time steps. The method is demonstrated for the agriculture areas of coastal Bangladesh (˜20,000 km2). This shows that we can reproduce the dynamics of soil salinity under multiple land uses, including rice crops, combined shrimp and rice farming, as well as non-rice crops. The model also reproduced well the observed spatial soil salinity for the year 2009. Using this approach, we have projected the soil salinity for three different climate ensembles, including relative sea-level rise for the year 2050. Projected soil salinity changes are significantly smaller than other reported projections. The results suggest that inter-season weather variability is a key driver of salinization of agriculture soils at coastal Bangladesh.

  17. Changes and Attribution of Extreme Precipitation in Climate Models: Subdaily and Daily Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, W.; Villarini, G.; Scoccimarro, E.; Vecchi, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme precipitation events are responsible for numerous hazards, including flooding, soil erosion, and landslides. Because of their significant socio-economic impacts, the attribution and projection of these events is of crucial importance to improve our response, mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here we present results from our ongoing work.In terms of attribution, we use idealized experiments [pre-industrial control experiment (PI) and 1% per year increase (1%CO2) in atmospheric CO2] from ten general circulation models produced under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the fraction of attributable risk to examine the CO2 effects on extreme precipitation at the sub-daily and daily scales. We find that the increased CO2 concentration substantially increases the odds of the occurrence of sub-daily precipitation extremes compared to the daily scale in most areas of the world, with the exception of some regions in the sub-tropics, likely in relation to the subsidence of the Hadley Cell. These results point to the large role that atmospheric CO2 plays in extreme precipitation under an idealized framework. Furthermore, we investigate the changes in extreme precipitation events with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) climate experiments using the scenarios consistent with the 1.5°C and 2°C temperature targets. We find that the frequency of annual extreme precipitation at a global scale increases in both 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios until around 2070, after which the magnitudes of the trend become much weaker or even negative. Overall, the frequency of global annual extreme precipitation is similar between 1.5°C and 2°C for the period 2006-2035, and the changes in extreme precipitation in individual seasons are consistent with those for the entire year. The frequency of extreme precipitation in the 2°C experiments is higher than for the 1.5°C experiment after the late 2030s, particularly for the period 2071-2100.

  18. Modeling Daily Rainfall Conditional on Atmospheric Predictors: An application to Western Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Kaleris, Vassilios

    2013-04-01

    Due to its intermittent and highly variable character, daily precipitation is the least well reproduced hydrologic variable by both General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Limited Area Models (LAMs). To that extent, several statistical procedures (usually referred to as downscaling schemes) have been suggested to generate synthetic rainfall time series conditional on predictor variables that are descriptive of the atmospheric circulation at the mesoscale. In addition to be more accurately simulated by GCMs and LAMs, large-scale atmospheric predictors are important indicators of the local weather. Currently used downscaling methods simulate rainfall series using either stable statistical relationships (usually referred to as transfer functions) between certain characteristics of the rainfall process and mesoscale atmospheric predictor variables, or simple stochastic schemes (e.g. properly transformed autoregressive models) with parameters that depend on the large-scale atmospheric conditions. The latter are determined by classifying large-scale circulation patterns into broad categories of weather states, using empirical or theoretically based classification schemes, and modeled by resampling from those categories; a process usually referred to as weather generation. In this work we propose a statistical framework to generate synthetic rainfall timeseries at a daily level, conditional on large scale atmospheric predictors. The latter include the mean sea level pressure (MSLP), the magnitude and direction of upper level geostrophic winds, and the 500 hPa geopotential height, relative vorticity and divergence. The suggested framework operates in continuous time, avoiding the use of transfer functions, and weather classification schemes. The suggested downscaling approach is validated using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive (see http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/index), and daily rainfall data from Western Greece, for the 14-year period from 01 October

  19. Linking Excessive Heat with Daily Heat-Related Mortality over the Coterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

    2014-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air

  20. Patterns of daily energy management at work: relations to employee well-being and job characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnunen, Ulla; Feldt, Taru; de Bloom, Jessica; Korpela, Kalevi

    2015-11-01

    The present study aimed at identifying subgroups of employees with similar daily energy management strategies at work and finding out whether well-being indicators and job characteristics differ between these subgroups. The study was conducted by electronic questionnaire among 1122 Finnish employees. First, subgroups of employees with unique and distinctive patterns of energy management strategies were identified using latent profile analysis. Second, differences in well-being indicators and job characteristics between the subgroups were investigated by means of ANCOVA. Four subgroups (i.e., patterns) were identified and named: Passives (n = 371), Averages (n = 390), Casuals (n = 272) and Actives (n = 89). Passives used all three (i.e., work-related, private micro-break and physical micro-break) strategies less frequently than other subgroups, whereas Actives used work-related and physical energy management strategies more frequently than other subgroups. Averages used all strategies on an average level. Casuals' use of all strategies came close to that of Actives, notably in a shared low use of private micro-break strategies. Active and Casual patterns maintained vigor and vitality. Autonomy and social support at work played a significant role in providing opportunities for the use of beneficial energy management strategies. Autonomy and support at work seem to support active and casual use of daily energy management, which is important in staying energized throughout the working day.

  1. Simple model for daily evaporation from fallow tilled soil under spring conditions in a temperate climate.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boesten, J.J.T.I.; Stroosnijder, L.

    1986-01-01

    A simple parametric model is presented to estimate daily evaporation from fallow tilled soil under spring conditions in a temperate climate. In this model, cumulative actual evaporation during a drying cycle is directly proportional to the square root of cumulative potential evaporation. The model

  2. Modelling daily PM2.5 concentrations at high spatio-temporal resolution across Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Hoogh, Kees; Héritier, Harris; Stafoggia, Massimo; Künzli, Nino; Kloog, Itai

    2018-02-01

    Spatiotemporal resolved models were developed predicting daily fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations across Switzerland from 2003 to 2013. Relatively sparse PM 2.5 monitoring data was supplemented by imputing PM 2.5 concentrations at PM 10 sites, using PM 2.5 /PM 10 ratios at co-located sites. Daily PM 2.5 concentrations were first estimated at a 1 × 1km resolution across Switzerland, using Multiangle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD) data in combination with spatiotemporal predictor data in a four stage approach. Mixed effect models (1) were used to predict PM 2.5 in cells with AOD but without PM 2.5 measurements (2). A generalized additive mixed model with spatial smoothing was applied to generate grid cell predictions for those grid cells where AOD was missing (3). Finally, local PM 2.5 predictions were estimated at each monitoring site by regressing the residuals from the 1 × 1km estimate against local spatial and temporal variables using machine learning techniques (4) and adding them to the stage 3 global estimates. The global (1 km) and local (100 m) models explained on average 73% of the total,71% of the spatial and 75% of the temporal variation (all cross validated) globally and on average 89% (total) 95% (spatial) and 88% (temporal) of the variation locally in measured PM 2.5 concentrations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. A conceptual model of daily water balance following partial clearing from forest to pasture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Bari

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available A simple conceptual water balance model representing the streamflow generation processes on a daily time step following land use change is presented. The model consists of five stores: (i Dry, Wet and Subsurface Stores for vertical and lateral water flow, (ii a transient Stream zone Store (iii a saturated Goundwater Store. The soil moisture balance in the top soil Dry and Wet Stores are the most important components of the model and characterize the dynamically varying saturated areas responsible for surface runoff, interflow and deep percolation. The Subsurface Store describes the unsaturated soil moisture balance, extraction of percolated water by vegetation and groundwater recharge. The Groundwater Store controls the baseflow to stream (if any and the groundwater contribution to the stream zone saturated areas. The daily model was developed following a downward approach by analysing data from Ernies (control and Lemon (53% cleared catchments in Western Australia and elaborating a monthly model. The daily model performed very well in simulating daily flow generation processes for both catchments. Most of the model parameters were incorporated a priori from catchment attributes such as surface slope, soil depth, porosity, stream length and initial groundwater depth, and some were calibrated by matching the observed and predicted hydrographs. The predicted groundwater depth, and streamflow volumes across all time steps from daily to monthly to annual were in close agreement with observations for both catchments.

  4. Sensory retraining: burden in daily life related to altered sensation after orthognathic surgery, a randomized clinical trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, C; Kim, S H; Tucker, M; Turvey, T A

    2010-08-01

    Assess the long-term effect of sensory retraining exercises, age, gender, type of surgery, and pre-surgical psychological distress on patients' perception of the interference related to altered sensation 2 years after orthognathic surgery. A total of 186 subjects with a developmental dentofacial disharmony were enrolled in a multicenter randomized clinical trial: one center was a community-based practice and the other a university-based center. Subjects were randomly allocated to two groups: standard of care mouth opening exercises after BSSO or a progressive series of sensory retraining facial exercises in addition to the opening exercises. At 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months after surgery, subjects scored unusual feelings on the face, numbness, and loss of lip sensitivity from 'no problem (1)' to 'serious problem (7)'. A marginal proportional odds model was fit for each of the ordinal outcomes. Up to 2 years after surgery, the opening exercise only group had a higher likelihood of reporting interference in daily activities related to numbness and loss of lip sensitivity than the sensory retraining exercise group. The difference between the two groups was relatively constant. Older subjects and those with elevated psychological distress before surgery reported higher burdens related to unusual facial feelings, numbness, and loss of lip sensitivity (p pre-surgical counseling regarding the impact on daily life of persistent altered sensation following a mandibular osteotomy.

  5. Daily global solar radiation modelling using multi-layer perceptron neural networks in semi-arid region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mawloud GUERMOUI

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Accurate estimation of Daily Global Solar Radiation (DGSR has been a major goal for solar energy application. However, solar radiation measurements are not a simple task for several reasons. In the cases where data are not available, it is very common the use of computational models to estimate the missing data, which are based mainly of the search for relationships between weather variables, such as temperature, humidity, sunshine duration, etc. In this respect, the present study focuses on the development of artificial neural network (ANN model for estimation of daily global solar radiation on horizontal surface in Ghardaia city (South Algeria. In this analysis back-propagation algorithm is applied. Daily mean air temperature, relative humidity and sunshine duration was used as climatic inputs parameters, while the daily global solar radiation (DGSR was the only output of the ANN. We have evaluated Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP models to estimate DGSR using three year of measurement (2005-2008. It was found that MLP-model based on sunshine duration and mean air temperature give accurate results in term of Mean Absolute Bias Error, Root Mean Square Error, Relative Square Error and Correlation Coefficient. The obtained values of these indicators are 0.67 MJ/m², 1.28 MJ/m², 6.12%and 98.18%, respectively which shows that MLP is highly qualified for DGSR estimation in semi-arid climates.

  6. Objectively measured daily physical activity related to aerobic fitness in young children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, Magnus; Bugge, Anna; Hermansen, Bianca

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate by direct measurement the cross-sectional relationship between accelerometer-measured physical activity and peak oxygen uptake (VO(2peak): ml x min(-1) x kg(-1)), in a population-based cohort of young children, since such data are scarce. The study...... analyses indicated that the various physical activity variables explained between 2 and 8% of the variance in VO(2peak) in boys. In this population-based cohort, most daily activity variables were positively related to aerobic fitness in boys, whereas less clear relationships were observed in girls. Our...... finding that physical activity was only uniformly related to aerobic fitness in boys partly contradicts previous studies in older children and adolescents....

  7. Modelling the quiet-time geomagnetic daily variations using observatory data

    OpenAIRE

    Hamilton, Brian; Macmillan, Susan

    2008-01-01

    We present on-going work towards building a global model of the quiet-time geomagnetic daily variation using bservatory data. We select hourly mean data during June 2006 (solar minimum). We fit Fourier series in time, with a fundamental period of 24 hours, to the data at each observatory. We then use global spherical harmonic expansions to separate the daily variation signal, as characterised by the Fourier coefficients in time, into external and induced internal contributions. The mode...

  8. Daily physical activity and its contribution to the health-related quality of life of ambulatory individuals with chronic stroke

    OpenAIRE

    Rand, Debbie; Eng, Janice J; Tang, Pei-Fang; Hung, Chihya; Jeng, Jiann-Shing

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Participation in daily physical activity (PA) post-stroke has not previously been investigated as a possible explanatory variable of health-related quality of life (HRQL). The aims were 1) to determine the contribution of daily PA to the HRQL of individuals with chronic stroke and 2) to assess the relationship between the functional ability of these individuals to the amount of daily PA. Methods The amount of daily PA of forty adults with chronic stroke (mean age 66.5 ± 9....

  9. Basal metabolic rate in relation to body composition and daily energy expenditure in the field vole, Microtus agrestis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meerlo, P; Bolle, L; Visser, GH; Masman, D; Daan, S

    1997-01-01

    Basal metabolic rate in the field vole (Microtus agrestis) was studied in relation to body composition and daily energy expenditure in the field Daily energy expenditure was measured by means of doubly labelled water ((D2O)-O-18). In the same individuals, basal metabolic rate was subsequently

  10. Relations between mothers' daily work, home, and relationship stress with characteristics of mother-child conflict interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Jackie A; Boyer, Brittany P; Villarreal, Deyaun L; Smith, Olivia A

    2017-06-01

    This study examined whether daily variations in levels of mothers' work, home, and relationship stress were related to collaborative and oppositional qualities of mother-child conflict interactions across 1 week. Mothers reported on 1 specific conflict interaction with their 5- to 8-year-old child and their work, home, and relationship stress through online surveys each day for 7 consecutive days. Diary data from 142 mothers were analyzed in 6 multilevel models, each including within- and between-family levels of a stressor predicting collaborative or oppositional conflict qualities. Results suggested that families in the sample differed from each other, and also varied during the week, in collaborative and oppositional conflict qualities as well as stress in all 3 domains. Mothers reported a greater degree of oppositional conflict qualities on days characterized by higher perceptions of home chaos. Additionally, mothers who reported higher average levels of negativity in romantic relationships endorsed oppositional conflict qualities to a greater extent than mothers with lower relationship negativity. Two multilevel models including all 3 stressors in relation to collaborative and oppositional conflict revealed that for mothers managing multiple roles, average romantic relationship stress was the most important unique contributor to mother-child conflict qualities and daily relationship stress was particularly influential among mothers with sons compared to those with daughters. Results support the spillover hypothesis of stress within the family system and are discussed in terms of mothers' coping mechanisms and emotional engagement. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  11. Methods and strategy for modeling daily global solar radiation with measured meteorological data - A case study in Nanchang station, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Guofeng; Liu, Yaolin; Wang, Tiejun

    2007-01-01

    Solar radiation is a primary driver for many physical, chemical and biological processes on the earth's surface, and complete and accurate solar radiation data at a specific region are quite indispensable to the solar energy related researches. This study, with Nanchang station, China, as a case study, aimed to calibrate existing models and develop new models for estimating missing global solar radiation data using commonly measured meteorological data and to propose a strategy for selecting the optimal models under different situations of available meteorological data. Using daily global radiation, sunshine hours, temperature, total precipitation and dew point data covering the years from 1994 to 2005, we calibrated or developed and evaluated seven existing models and two new models. Validation criteria included intercept, slope, coefficient of determination, mean bias error and root mean square error. The best result (R 2 = 0.93) was derived from Chen model 2, which uses sunshine hours and temperature as predictors. The Bahel model, which only uses sunshine hours, was almost as good, explaining 92% of the solar radiation variance. Temperature based models (Bristow and Campbell, Allen, Hargreaves and Chen 1 models) provided less accurate results, of which the best one (R 2 = 0.69) is the Bristow and Campbell model. The temperature based models were improved by adding other variables (daily mean total precipitation and mean dew point). Two such models could explain 77% (Wu model 1) and 80% (Wu model 2) of the solar radiation variance. We, thus, propose a strategy for selecting an optimal method for calculating missing daily values of global solar radiation: (1) when sunshine hour and temperature data are available, use Chen model 2; (2) when only sunshine hour data are available, use Bahel model; (3) when temperature, total precipitation and dew point data are available but not sunshine hours, use Wu model 2; (4) when only temperature and total precipitation are

  12. Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMA-GARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ooms, M.; Koopman, S.J.; Carnero, A.M.

    2007-01-01

    Novel periodic extensions of dynamic long-memory regression models with autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic errors are considered for the analysis of daily electricity spot prices. The parameters of the model with mean and variance specifications are estimated simultaneously by the method of

  13. Analysis and comparison of safety models using average daily, average hourly, and microscopic traffic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ling; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Xuesong; Yu, Rongjie

    2018-02-01

    There have been plenty of traffic safety studies based on average daily traffic (ADT), average hourly traffic (AHT), or microscopic traffic at 5 min intervals. Nevertheless, not enough research has compared the performance of these three types of safety studies, and seldom of previous studies have intended to find whether the results of one type of study is transferable to the other two studies. First, this study built three models: a Bayesian Poisson-lognormal model to estimate the daily crash frequency using ADT, a Bayesian Poisson-lognormal model to estimate the hourly crash frequency using AHT, and a Bayesian logistic regression model for the real-time safety analysis using microscopic traffic. The model results showed that the crash contributing factors found by different models were comparable but not the same. Four variables, i.e., the logarithm of volume, the standard deviation of speed, the logarithm of segment length, and the existence of diverge segment, were positively significant in the three models. Additionally, weaving segments experienced higher daily and hourly crash frequencies than merge and basic segments. Then, each of the ADT-based, AHT-based, and real-time models was used to estimate safety conditions at different levels: daily and hourly, meanwhile, the real-time model was also used in 5 min intervals. The results uncovered that the ADT- and AHT-based safety models performed similar in predicting daily and hourly crash frequencies, and the real-time safety model was able to provide hourly crash frequency. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. A No-Arbitrage Fractional Cointegration Model for Futures and Spot Daily Ranges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rossi, Eduardo; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

    2013-01-01

    The no-arbitrage relation between futures and spot prices implies an analogous relation between futures and spot daily ranges. The long-memory features of the range-based volatility estimators are analyzed, and fractional cointegration is tested in a semi-parametric framework. In particular, the no...

  15. Whether, when, and how is spirituality related to well-being? Moving beyond single occasion questionnaires to understanding daily process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashdan, Todd B; Nezlek, John B

    2012-11-01

    Prior research suggests that spirituality is positively related to well-being. Nevertheless, within-person variability in spirituality has yet to be addressed. Do people experience greater spirituality on some days versus others? Does daily spirituality predict daily well-being? Do within-person relationships between spirituality and well-being vary as a function of trait spirituality? The authors examined such questions using a daily diary study with 87 participants who provided reports of their daily spirituality and well-being for a total of 1,239 days. They found that daily spirituality was positively related to meaning in life, self-esteem, and positive affect, and the link from daily spirituality to both self-esteem and positive affect was fully mediated by meaning in life. Moreover, within-person relationships between daily spirituality and self-esteem and meaning in life were stronger for people higher in trait spirituality. Lagged analyses found positive relationships between present day spirituality and next day's meaning in life; there was no evidence for meaning in life as a predictor of the next day's spirituality. When focusing on affect, for people higher in trait spirituality, greater negative affect (and lower positive affect) predicted greater spirituality the next day. These results provide new insights into how spirituality operates as a fluctuating experience in daily life.

  16. Interrelationship among the health-related and subjective quality of life, daily life activities, instrumental activities of daily living of community-dwelling elderly females in orthopedic outpatients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takemasa, Seiichi; Nakagoshi, Ryoma; Uesugi, Masayuki; Inoue, Yuri; Gotou, Makoto; Naruse, Susumu; Nanba, Yoshihumi

    2017-05-01

    [Purpose] This study aimed to examine the health-related and subjective quality of life of community-dwelling elderly females in orthopedic outpatients, and also examined how such quality of life correlate with their daily life activities and instrumental activities of daily living. [Subjects and Methods] Subjects were 27 community-dwelling elderly females in orthopedic outpatients (mean age: 76.3 ± 7.4 years). Their health-related quality of life and subjective quality of life, life-space assessment, frenchay activities index were researched. [Results] For the relationships between the total subjective quality of life scores and health-related quality of life scores, significant positive correlations were observed for body pain, general health, vitality, social functions and mental health. The correlations were not statistically significant between the subjective quality of life scores and the life-space assessment and frenchay activities index scores. The correlations were statistically significant between some health-related quality of life scores and the life-space assessment and frenchay activities index scores. [Conclusion] The results suggest that supporting community-dwelling elderly females in orthopedic outpatients to improve their sense of physical and mental well-being, and prevent and reduce their depression and physical pain, is required in order to improve their QOL.

  17. Examining the Effects of Video Modeling and Prompts to Teach Activities of Daily Living Skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldi, Catarina; Crigler, Alexandra; Kates-McElrath, Kelly; Long, Brian; Smith, Hillary; Rehak, Kim; Wilkinson, Lisa

    2016-12-01

    Video modeling has been shown to be effective in teaching a number of skills to learners diagnosed with autism spectrum disorders (ASD). In this study, we taught two young men diagnosed with ASD three different activities of daily living skills (ADLS) using point-of-view video modeling. Results indicated that both participants met criterion for all ADLS. Participants did not maintain mastery criterion at a 1-month follow-up, but did score above baseline at maintenance with and without video modeling. • Point-of-view video models may be an effective intervention to teach daily living skills. • Video modeling with handheld portable devices (Apple iPod or iPad) can be just as effective as video modeling with stationary viewing devices (television or computer). • The use of handheld portable devices (Apple iPod and iPad) makes video modeling accessible and possible in a wide variety of environments.

  18. Climate change web picker. A tool bridging daily climate needs in process based modelling in forestry and agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palma, J.H.N.

    2017-01-01

    Aim of study: Climate data is a need for different types of modeling assessments, especially those involving process based modeling focusing on climate change impacts. However, there is a scarcity of tools delivering easy access to climate datasets to use in biological related modeling. This study aimed at the development of a tool that could provide an user-friendly interface to facilitate access to climate datasets, that are used to supply climate scenarios for the International Panel on Climate Change. Area of study: The tool provides daily datasets across Europe, and also parts of northern Africa Material and Methods: The tool uses climatic datasets generated from third party sources (IPCC related) while a web based interface was developed in JavaScript to ease the access to the datasets Main Results: The interface delivers daily (or monthly) climate data from a user-defined location in Europe for 7 climate variables: minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, radiation, minimum and maximum relative humidity and wind speed). The time frame ranges from 1951 to 2100, providing the basis to use the data for climate change impact assessments. The tool is free and publicly available at http://www.isa.ulisboa.pt/proj/clipick/. Research Highlights: A new and easy-to-use tool is suggested that will promote the use of climate change scenarios across Europe, especially when daily time steps are needed. CliPick eases the communication between climatic and modelling communities such as agriculture and forestry.

  19. Climate change web picker. A tool bridging daily climate needs in process based modelling in forestry and agriculture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palma, J.H.N.

    2017-11-01

    Aim of study: Climate data is a need for different types of modeling assessments, especially those involving process based modeling focusing on climate change impacts. However, there is a scarcity of tools delivering easy access to climate datasets to use in biological related modeling. This study aimed at the development of a tool that could provide an user-friendly interface to facilitate access to climate datasets, that are used to supply climate scenarios for the International Panel on Climate Change. Area of study: The tool provides daily datasets across Europe, and also parts of northern Africa Material and Methods: The tool uses climatic datasets generated from third party sources (IPCC related) while a web based interface was developed in JavaScript to ease the access to the datasets Main Results: The interface delivers daily (or monthly) climate data from a user-defined location in Europe for 7 climate variables: minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, radiation, minimum and maximum relative humidity and wind speed). The time frame ranges from 1951 to 2100, providing the basis to use the data for climate change impact assessments. The tool is free and publicly available at http://www.isa.ulisboa.pt/proj/clipick/. Research Highlights: A new and easy-to-use tool is suggested that will promote the use of climate change scenarios across Europe, especially when daily time steps are needed. CliPick eases the communication between climatic and modelling communities such as agriculture and forestry.

  20. Pain-related impairment of daily activities after thoracic surgery: a questionnaire validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringsted, Thomas K; Wildgaard, Kim; Kreiner, Svend; Kehlet, Henrik

    2013-09-01

    Persistent postoperative pain is an acknowledged entity that reduces daily activities. Evaluation of the post-thoracotomy pain syndrome (PTPS) is often measured using traditional pain scales without in-depth questions on pain impairment. Thus, the purpose was to create a procedure-specific questionnaire for assessment of functional impairment due to PTPS. Activities were obtained from the literature supplemented by interviews with patients and surgeons. The questionnaire was validated using the Rasch model in order to describe an underlying pain impairment scale. Four of 17 questions were redundant. The remaining 13 questions from low to intensive activity described functional impairment following persistent pain from thoracotomy and video-assisted thoracic surgery (VATS). No evidence for differential item functioning for gender, age or differences between open or VATS, were found. A generalized log-linear Rasch model including local dependence was constructed. Though local dependence influenced reliability, the test-retest reliability estimated under the log-linear Rasch model was high (0.88-0.96). Correlation with items from the Disability of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (quick) questionnaire supported validity (γ = 0.46, P impairment questionnaire measured 2 qualitatively different pain dimensions although highly correlated (γ = 0.76). This study presents method, results and validation of a new unidimensional scale measuring procedure specific functional impairment due to PTPS following open surgery and VATS. Procedure specific tools such as this could provide important outcomes measures for future trials on persistent postsurgical pain states allowing better assessment of interventions (250).

  1. Extracting aerobic system dynamics during unsupervised activities of daily living using wearable sensor machine learning models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beltrame, Thomas; Amelard, Robert; Wong, Alexander; Hughson, Richard L

    2018-02-01

    Physical activity levels are related through algorithms to the energetic demand, with no information regarding the integrity of the multiple physiological systems involved in the energetic supply. Longitudinal analysis of the oxygen uptake (V̇o 2 ) by wearable sensors in realistic settings might permit development of a practical tool for the study of the longitudinal aerobic system dynamics (i.e., V̇o 2 kinetics). This study evaluated aerobic system dynamics based on predicted V̇o 2 data obtained from wearable sensors during unsupervised activities of daily living (μADL). Thirteen healthy men performed a laboratory-controlled moderate exercise protocol and were monitored for ≈6 h/day for 4 days (μADL data). Variables derived from hip accelerometer (ACC HIP ), heart rate monitor, and respiratory bands during μADL were extracted and processed by a validated random forest regression model to predict V̇o 2 . The aerobic system analysis was based on the frequency-domain analysis of ACC HIP and predicted V̇o 2 data obtained during μADL. Optimal samples for frequency domain analysis (constrained to ≤0.01 Hz) were selected when ACC HIP was higher than 0.05 g at a given frequency (i.e., participants were active). The temporal characteristics of predicted V̇o 2 data during μADL correlated with the temporal characteristics of measured V̇o 2 data during laboratory-controlled protocol ([Formula: see text] = 0.82, P system dynamics can be investigated during unsupervised activities of daily living by wearable sensors. Although speculative, these algorithms have the potential to be incorporated into wearable systems for early detection of changes in health status in realistic environments by detecting changes in aerobic response dynamics. NEW & NOTEWORTHY The early detection of subclinical aerobic system impairments might be indicative of impaired physiological reserves that impact the capacity for physical activity. This study is the first to use wearable

  2. Evaluation of sub daily satellite rainfall estimates through flash flood modelling in the Lower Middle Zambezi Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Matingo

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Flash floods are experienced almost annually in the ungauged Mbire District of the Middle Zambezi Basin. Studies related to hydrological modelling (rainfall-runoff and flood forecasting require major inputs such as precipitation which, due to shortage of observed data, are increasingly using indirect methods for estimating precipitation. This study therefore evaluated performance of CMORPH and TRMM satellite rainfall estimates (SREs for 30 min, 1 h, 3 h and daily intensities through hydrologic and flash flood modelling in the Lower Middle Zambezi Basin for the period 2013–2016. On a daily timestep, uncorrected CMORPH and TRMM show Probability of Detection (POD of 61 and 59 %, respectively, when compared to rain gauge observations. The best performance using Correlation Coefficient (CC was 70 and 60 % on daily timesteps for CMORPH and TRMM, respectively. The best RMSE for CMORPH was 0.81 % for 30 min timestep and for TRMM was 2, 11 % on 3 h timestep. For the year 2014 to 2015, the HEC-HMS (Hydrological Engineering Centre-Hydrological Modelling System daily model calibration Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE for Musengezi sub catchment was 59 % whilst for Angwa it was 55 %. Angwa sub-catchment daily NSE results for the period 2015–2016 was 61 %. HEC-RAS flash flood modeling at 100, 50 and 25 year return periods for Angwa sub catchment, inundated 811 and 867 ha for TRMM rainfall simulated discharge at 3 h and daily timesteps, respectively. For CMORPH generated rainfall, the inundation was 818, 876, 890 and 891 ha at daily, 3 h, 1 h and 30 min timesteps. The 30 min time step for CMORPH effectively captures flash floods with the measure of agreement between simulated flood extent and ground control points of 69 %. For TRMM, the 3 h timestep effectively captures flash floods with coefficient of 67 %. The study therefore concludes that satellite products are most effective in capturing localized

  3. Nurses' daily life: gender relations from the time spent in hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Audrey Vidal Pereira

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to analyze the everyday life of nurses through the sexual work division as well as through interdependence relations and the time in hospital.Method: quanti-qualitative study, based on the Time Use Survey and in Norbert Elias's Configuration Theory of Interdependencies. Daily shifts distribution record, directed by 42 participants - with self-confrontation - by interviews which drew dialogues on subjective aspects of the everyday experiences related to use of time, based on a job at a university hospital. The theoretical intake that founded data analysis was based on concepts of conflicts of interest, power struggles, sexual work division and polychronic-monochronic concepts - whether the work environment demands multitasking nurses or not.Results: time records allowed to observe differences between the groups studied, useful to identify conflicts, tensions, power struggles and gender inequalities in interviewees' everyday affairs that do not only affect physical and mental health, but also their way of life.Conclusion: the analytical path pointed out the need for public policies that promote equity in gender relations, keeping at sight the exercise of plural discourses and tolerant stances capable to respect differences between individual and collective time.

  4. Nurses' daily life: gender relations from the time spent in hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Audrey Vidal

    2015-01-01

    to analyze the everyday life of nurses through the sexual work division as well as through interdependence relations and the time in hospital. quanti-qualitative study, based on the Time Use Survey and in Norbert Elias's Configuration Theory of Interdependencies. Daily shifts distribution record, directed by 42 participants--with self-confrontation--by interviews which drew dialogues on subjective aspects of the everyday experiences related to use of time, based on a job at a university hospital. The theoretical intake that founded data analysis was based on concepts of conflicts of interest, power struggles, sexual work division and polychronic-monochronic concepts--whether the work environment demands multitasking nurses or not. time records allowed to observe differences between the groups studied, useful to identify conflicts, tensions, power struggles and gender inequalities in interviewees' everyday affairs that do not only affect physical and mental health, but also their way of life. the analytical path pointed out the need for public policies that promote equity in gender relations, keeping at sight the exercise of plural discourses and tolerant stances capable to respect differences between individual and collective time.

  5. Daily movements of female white-tailed deer relative to parturition and breeding.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gino J. D' Angelo; Christopher E. Comer; John C. Kilgo; Cory D. Drennan; David A. Osborn; Karl V. Miller

    2005-10-01

    Abstract: To assess how white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) herd demographics influence reproductive behaviors, we examined 24-h diel movements of female whitetailed deer relative to parturition and breeding in a low-density population with a near even sex ratio at the Savannah River Site (SRS), South Carolina. We conducted a series of intensive, 24-h radio-tracking periods of 13 females during spring and fall 2002. We compared daily range (ha), rate of travel (m/h), and distance between extreme daily locations (m), among the periods of pre-parturition and post-parturition and pre-, peak-, and post-rut. From pre-parturition to post-parturition, we observed decreases in diel range size (–38.2%), distance between extreme diel locations (–17.0%), and diel rate of travel (–18.2%). Diel range size, distance between extreme diel locations, and diel rate of travel during the pre-rut and rut exceeded those observed during post-rut. We further identified substantial increases in mobility during 12 24-h diel periods for eight females during our fall monitoring. Our data suggest that female white-tailed deer reduce mobility post-fawning following exaggerated movements during pre-parturition. Furthermore, despite a near equal sex ratio, estrous does may be required to actively seek potential mates due to low population density.

  6. Daily fluctuations in teachers' well-being: a diary study using the Job Demands-Resources model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simbula, Silvia

    2010-10-01

    The study tests the dynamic nature of the Job Demands-Resources model with regard to both motivational and health impairment processes. It does so by examining whether daily fluctuations in co-workers' support (i.e., a typical job resource) and daily fluctuations in work/family conflict (i.e., a typical job demand) predict day-levels of job satisfaction and mental health through work engagement and exhaustion, respectively. A total of 61 schoolteachers completed a general questionnaire and a daily survey over a period of five consecutive work days. Multilevel analyses provided evidence for both the above processes. Consistently with the hypotheses, our results showed that day-level work engagement mediated the impact of day-level co-workers' support on day-level job satisfaction and day-level mental health, after general levels of work engagement and outcome variables had been controlled for. Moreover, day-level exhaustion mediated the relationship between day-level work/family conflict and day-level job satisfaction and day-level mental health after general levels of exhaustion and outcome variables had been controlled for. These findings provide new insights into the dynamic psychological processes that determine daily fluctuations in employee well-being. Such insights may be transformed into job redesign strategies and other interventions designed to enhance work-related psychological well-being on a daily level.

  7. Development and evaluation of neural network models to estimate daily solar radiation at Córdoba, Argentina

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bocco, M.

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this work was to develop neural network models of backpropagation type to estimate solar radiation based on extraterrestrial radiation data, daily temperature range, precipitation, cloudiness and relative sunshine duration. Data from Córdoba, Argentina, were used for development and validation. The behaviour and adjustment between values observed and estimates obtained by neural networks for different combinations of input were assessed. These estimations showed root mean square error between 3.15 and 3.88 MJ m -2 d -1 . The latter corresponds to the model that calculates radiation using only precipitation and daily temperature range. In all models, results show good adjustment to seasonal solar radiation. These results allow inferring the adequate performance and pertinence of this methodology to estimate complex phenomena, such as solar radiation [pt

  8. Jealousy in adolescents' daily lives: How does it relate to interpersonal context and well-being?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lennarz, Hannah K; Lichtwarck-Aschoff, Anna; Finkenauer, Catrin; Granic, Isabela

    2017-01-01

    Past studies have shown that jealousy peaks in adolescence. However, little is known about how and when adolescents experience jealousy in their daily lives. The current study aimed to examine the relation between state jealousy, the more general propensity to feel jealous, the interpersonal contexts in which jealousy arises, and different forms of social comparison. The impact of jealousy on perceptions of well-being was also explored. We used an experience sampling method during two weekends with 68 adolescents (M age  = 13.94; 64.70% girls). Jealousy was common: On average, 90% of our sample experienced jealousy in 20% of the assessments. Adolescents reported more jealousy with peers than with family. Additionally, they experienced more jealousy when in online contexts than when in face-to-face peer contexts. The normative nature of jealousy, its developmental function and relation with well-being, and implications for understanding jealousy triggered in (highly social) online contexts are discussed. Copyright © 2016 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. The daily commute from work to home: Examining employees' experiences in relation to their recovery status

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hooff, M.L.M. van

    2015-01-01

    Sufficient recovery after daily effort expenditure at work is important to protect employee health and well-being. However, the role of commuting in the daily effort-recovery process is still not very well understood. The present study aimed to advance insight in this respect by examining if

  10. Depressive Symptoms, Disclosure, HIV-Related Stigma, and Coping Following HIV Testing Among Outpatients in Uganda: A Daily Process Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiene, Susan M; Dove, Meredith; Wanyenze, Rhoda K

    2018-05-01

    As efforts to end the HIV epidemic accelerate there is emphasis on reaching those living with undiagnosed HIV infection. Newly diagnosed individuals face a number of psychosocial challenges, yet we know little about depressive symptoms in the weeks immediately following diagnosis and how disclosure, coping, and other factors may affect short and longer-term depressive symptoms. Purposively sampled Ugandan outpatients completed structured interviews immediately prior to testing for HIV, daily for 28 days after receiving their test results, and at 3 and 6 months post-test. The sample included a total of 244 participants: 20 who tested HIV positive at baseline and who provided 342 daily data points, and 224 who tested HIV negative at baseline and who provided 4388 daily data points. We used linear mixed effects modeling to examine changes in depressive symptom scores over the 28 day daily interview period and predictors of depressive symptom scores and changes over time. Results from the mixed modeling revealed that while those diagnosed with HIV showed initially high depressive symptoms following diagnosis, their symptoms decreased significantly and on average fell below the cutoff for possible depression approximately 15 days after diagnosis. Among those who tested HIV-negative, on average their depressive symptoms were below the cutoff for possible depression and did not change over time. Among those diagnosed with HIV, disclosure, especially to a partner, on a particular day was associated with higher depressive symptoms that day. However, those who disclosed to their partner during the 28 days after diagnosis had significantly lower depression scores by the end of the 28 days as well as lower depression scores 3 and 6 months after diagnosis than did those who did not disclose to their partner during the 28 days after diagnosis. Scoring higher on HIV-related stigma on a particular day was associated with higher depressive symptoms that day and engaging

  11. Discriminative Relational Topic Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ning; Zhu, Jun; Xia, Fei; Zhang, Bo

    2015-05-01

    Relational topic models (RTMs) provide a probabilistic generative process to describe both the link structure and document contents for document networks, and they have shown promise on predicting network structures and discovering latent topic representations. However, existing RTMs have limitations in both the restricted model expressiveness and incapability of dealing with imbalanced network data. To expand the scope and improve the inference accuracy of RTMs, this paper presents three extensions: 1) unlike the common link likelihood with a diagonal weight matrix that allows the-same-topic interactions only, we generalize it to use a full weight matrix that captures all pairwise topic interactions and is applicable to asymmetric networks; 2) instead of doing standard Bayesian inference, we perform regularized Bayesian inference (RegBayes) with a regularization parameter to deal with the imbalanced link structure issue in real networks and improve the discriminative ability of learned latent representations; and 3) instead of doing variational approximation with strict mean-field assumptions, we present collapsed Gibbs sampling algorithms for the generalized relational topic models by exploring data augmentation without making restricting assumptions. Under the generic RegBayes framework, we carefully investigate two popular discriminative loss functions, namely, the logistic log-loss and the max-margin hinge loss. Experimental results on several real network datasets demonstrate the significance of these extensions on improving prediction performance.

  12. Automatic Power Control for Daily Load-following Operation using Model Predictive Control Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Keuk Jong; Kim, Han Gon [KH, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-10-15

    Under the circumstances that nuclear power occupies more than 50%, nuclear power plants are required to be operated on load-following operation in order to make the effective management of electric grid system and enhanced responsiveness to rapid changes in power demand. Conventional reactors such as the OPR1000 and APR1400 have a regulating system that controls the average temperature of the reactor core relation to the reference temperature. This conventional method has the advantages of proven technology and ease of implementation. However, this method is unsuitable for controlling the axial power shape, particularly the load following operation. Accordingly, this paper reports on the development of a model predictive control method which is able to control the reactor power and the axial shape index. The purpose of this study is to analyze the behavior of nuclear reactor power and the axial power shape by using a model predictive control method when the power is increased and decreased for a daily load following operation. The study confirms that deviations in the axial shape index (ASI) are within the operating limit.

  13. Work-related boredom and depressed mood from a daily perspective: The moderating roles of work centrality and need satisfaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hooff, M.L.M. van; Hooft, E.A.J. van

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to advance insight into inter- and intrapersonal processes that may affect the associations between work-related boredom and employee well-being. We employed a daily perspective to examine (1) the relations between work-related boredom and depressed mood at the end of the workday

  14. Influence of daily versus monthly fire emissions on atmospheric model applications in the tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, M. E.; Voulgarakis, A.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.; DeFries, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    Fires are widely used throughout the tropics to create and maintain areas for agriculture, but are also significant contributors to atmospheric trace gas and aerosol concentrations. However, the timing and magnitude of fire activity can vary strongly by year and ecosystem type. For example, frequent, low intensity fires dominate in African savannas whereas Southeast Asian peatland forests are susceptible to huge pulses of emissions during regional El Niño droughts. Despite the potential implications for modeling interactions with atmospheric chemistry and transport, fire emissions have commonly been input into global models at a monthly resolution. Recognizing the uncertainty that this can introduce, several datasets have parsed fire emissions to daily and sub-daily scales with satellite active fire detections. In this study, we explore differences between utilizing the monthly and daily Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) products as inputs into the NASA GISS-E2 composition climate model. We aim to understand how the choice of the temporal resolution of fire emissions affects uncertainty with respect to several common applications of global models: atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climate. Focusing our analysis on tropical ozone, carbon monoxide, and aerosols, we compare modeled concentrations with available ground and satellite observations. We find that increasing the temporal frequency of fire emissions from monthly to daily can improve correlations with observations, predominately in areas or during seasons more heavily affected by fires. Differences between the two datasets are more evident with public health applications: daily resolution fire emissions increases the number of days exceeding World Health Organization air quality targets.

  15. Applicability of Daily Solar Radiation Estimated by Mountain Microclimate Simulation Model (MT-CLIM) in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shim, K.M.; Kim, Y.S.; Lee, D.B.; Kang, K.K.; So, K.H.

    2012-01-01

    Accuracy of daily solar radiation estimated from a Mountain Microclimate Simulation Model (MT-CLIM) was assessed for seven observation sites with complex topography in Uiseong County. The coefficient of determination () between the observed and the estimated daily solar radiation was 0.52 for 7 sites for the study period from 1 August to 30 September 2009. Overall, the MT-CLIM overestimated the solar radiation with root mean square error (RMSE) of which is about 25% of the mean daily solar radiation () for the study period. Considering that the pyranometer's tolerance is of standard sensor, the RMSE of MT-CLIM was too large to accept for a direct application for agricultural sector. The reliability of solar radiation estimated by MT-CLIM must be improved by considering additional ways such as using a topography correction coefficient

  16. Application of Markov chain model to daily maximum temperature for thermal comfort in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordin, Muhamad Asyraf bin Che; Hassan, Husna

    2015-01-01

    The Markov chain’s first order principle has been widely used to model various meteorological fields, for prediction purposes. In this study, a 14-year (2000-2013) data of daily maximum temperatures in Bayan Lepas were used. Earlier studies showed that the outdoor thermal comfort range based on physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) index in Malaysia is less than 34°C, thus the data obtained were classified into two state: normal state (within thermal comfort range) and hot state (above thermal comfort range). The long-run results show the probability of daily temperature exceed TCR will be only 2.2%. On the other hand, the probability daily temperature within TCR will be 97.8%

  17. Random regression models for daily feed intake in Danish Duroc pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strathe, Anders Bjerring; Mark, Thomas; Jensen, Just

    The objective of this study was to develop random regression models and estimate covariance functions for daily feed intake (DFI) in Danish Duroc pigs. A total of 476201 DFI records were available on 6542 Duroc boars between 70 to 160 days of age. The data originated from the National test station......-year-season, permanent, and animal genetic effects. The functional form was based on Legendre polynomials. A total of 64 models for random regressions were initially ranked by BIC to identify the approximate order for the Legendre polynomials using AI-REML. The parsimonious model included Legendre polynomials of 2nd...... order for genetic and permanent environmental curves and a heterogeneous residual variance, allowing the daily residual variance to change along the age trajectory due to scale effects. The parameters of the model were estimated in a Bayesian framework, using the RJMC module of the DMU package, where...

  18. Advanced Daily Prediction Model for National Suicide Numbers with Social Media Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyung Sang; Lee, Hyewon; Myung, Woojae; Song, Gil-Young; Lee, Kihwang; Kim, Ho; Carroll, Bernard J; Kim, Doh Kwan

    2018-04-01

    Suicide is a significant public health concern worldwide. Social media data have a potential role in identifying high suicide risk individuals and also in predicting suicide rate at the population level. In this study, we report an advanced daily suicide prediction model using social media data combined with economic/meteorological variables along with observed suicide data lagged by 1 week. The social media data were drawn from weblog posts. We examined a total of 10,035 social media keywords for suicide prediction. We made predictions of national suicide numbers 7 days in advance daily for 2 years, based on a daily moving 5-year prediction modeling period. Our model predicted the likely range of daily national suicide numbers with 82.9% accuracy. Among the social media variables, words denoting economic issues and mood status showed high predictive strength. Observed number of suicides one week previously, recent celebrity suicide, and day of week followed by stock index, consumer price index, and sunlight duration 7 days before the target date were notable predictors along with the social media variables. These results strengthen the case for social media data to supplement classical social/economic/climatic data in forecasting national suicide events.

  19. Daily physical activity and its contribution to the health-related quality of life of ambulatory individuals with chronic stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rand, Debbie; Eng, Janice J; Tang, Pei-Fang; Hung, Chihya; Jeng, Jiann-Shing

    2010-08-03

    Participation in daily physical activity (PA) post-stroke has not previously been investigated as a possible explanatory variable of health-related quality of life (HRQL). The aims were 1) to determine the contribution of daily PA to the HRQL of individuals with chronic stroke and 2) to assess the relationship between the functional ability of these individuals to the amount of daily PA. The amount of daily PA of forty adults with chronic stroke (mean age 66.5 +/- 9.6 years) was monitored using two measures. Accelerometers (Actical) were worn on the hip for three consecutive days in conjunction with a self-report questionnaire [the PA Scale for Individuals with Physical Disabilities (PASIPD)]. The daily physical activity was measured as the mean total accelerometer activity counts/day and the PASIPD scores as the metabolic equivalent (MET) hr/day. HRQL was assessed by the Physical and Mental composite scores of the Medical Outcomes Study Short-Form 36 (SF-36) in addition to the functional ability of the participants. Correlation and regression analyses were performed. After controlling for the severity of the motor impairment, the amount of daily PA, as assessed by the PASIPD and accelerometers, was found to independently contribute to 10-12% of the variance of the Physical Composite Score of the SF-36. No significant relationship was found between PA and the Mental Composite Score of the SF-36.The functional ability of the participants was found to be correlated to the amount of daily PA (r = 0.33 - 0.67, p < 0.01). The results suggest that daily PA is associated with better HRQL (as assessed by the Physical composite score of the SF-36) for people living with stroke. Daily PA should be encouraged to potentially increase HRQL. Accelerometers in conjunction with a self-report questionnaire may provide important measures of PA which can be monitored and modified, and potentially influence HRQL.

  20. Daily physical activity and its contribution to the health-related quality of life of ambulatory individuals with chronic stroke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rand Debbie

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Participation in daily physical activity (PA post-stroke has not previously been investigated as a possible explanatory variable of health-related quality of life (HRQL. The aims were 1 to determine the contribution of daily PA to the HRQL of individuals with chronic stroke and 2 to assess the relationship between the functional ability of these individuals to the amount of daily PA. Methods The amount of daily PA of forty adults with chronic stroke (mean age 66.5 ± 9.6 years was monitored using two measures. Accelerometers (Actical were worn on the hip for three consecutive days in conjunction with a self-report questionnaire [the PA Scale for Individuals with Physical Disabilities (PASIPD]. The daily physical activity was measured as the mean total accelerometer activity counts/day and the PASIPD scores as the metabolic equivalent (MET hr/day. HRQL was assessed by the Physical and Mental composite scores of the Medical Outcomes Study Short-Form 36 (SF-36 in addition to the functional ability of the participants. Correlation and regression analyses were performed. Results After controlling for the severity of the motor impairment, the amount of daily PA, as assessed by the PASIPD and accelerometers, was found to independently contribute to 10-12% of the variance of the Physical Composite Score of the SF-36. No significant relationship was found between PA and the Mental Composite Score of the SF-36.The functional ability of the participants was found to be correlated to the amount of daily PA (r = 0.33 - 0.67, p Conclusion The results suggest that daily PA is associated with better HRQL (as assessed by the Physical composite score of the SF-36 for people living with stroke. Daily PA should be encouraged to potentially increase HRQL. Accelerometers in conjunction with a self-report questionnaire may provide important measures of PA which can be monitored and modified, and potentially influence HRQL.

  1. Daily spillover from family to work: A test of the work-home resources model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Danyang; Derks, Daantje; Bakker, Arnold B

    2018-04-01

    The present study examines a mediated moderation model of the day-level effects of family hassles and family-work spillover (affect and cognition) on the relationship between job resources and employees' flourishing at work. Based on the work-home resources model, the authors hypothesized that demands from one domain (family) induce repetitive thoughts or negative feelings about those problems, so that individuals are not able to function optimally and to make full use of contextual resources in the other domain (work). Multilevel analyses of 108 Chinese working parents' 366 daily surveys revealed that the relationship between morning job resources and afternoon flourishing was significantly positive when previous day family hassles were low; the relationship became nonsignificant when previous day family hassles were high. In addition, as predicted, daily rumination also attenuated the relationship between morning job resources and afternoon flourishing, whereas daily affect did not. Finally, the moderating effect of previous day family hassles was mediated by daily rumination. The findings contribute to spillover theories by revealing the roles of affective and cognitive spillover from family to work. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Estimating daily minimum, maximum, and mean near surface air temperature using hybrid satellite models across Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfeld, Adar; Dorman, Michael; Schwartz, Joel; Novack, Victor; Just, Allan C; Kloog, Itai

    2017-11-01

    Meteorological stations measure air temperature (Ta) accurately with high temporal resolution, but usually suffer from limited spatial resolution due to their sparse distribution across rural, undeveloped or less populated areas. Remote sensing satellite-based measurements provide daily surface temperature (Ts) data in high spatial and temporal resolution and can improve the estimation of daily Ta. In this study we developed spatiotemporally resolved models which allow us to predict three daily parameters: Ta Max (day time), 24h mean, and Ta Min (night time) on a fine 1km grid across the state of Israel. We used and compared both the Aqua and Terra MODIS satellites. We used linear mixed effect models, IDW (inverse distance weighted) interpolations and thin plate splines (using a smooth nonparametric function of longitude and latitude) to first calibrate between Ts and Ta in those locations where we have available data for both and used that calibration to fill in neighboring cells without surface monitors or missing Ts. Out-of-sample ten-fold cross validation (CV) was used to quantify the accuracy of our predictions. Our model performance was excellent for both days with and without available Ts observations for both Aqua and Terra (CV Aqua R 2 results for min 0.966, mean 0.986, and max 0.967; CV Terra R 2 results for min 0.965, mean 0.987, and max 0.968). Our research shows that daily min, mean and max Ta can be reliably predicted using daily MODIS Ts data even across Israel, with high accuracy even for days without Ta or Ts data. These predictions can be used as three separate Ta exposures in epidemiology studies for better diurnal exposure assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Determination of Semivariogram Models to Krige Hourly and Daily Solar Irradiance in Western Nebraska(.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merino, G. G.; Jones, D.; Stooksbury, D. E.; Hubbard, K. G.

    2001-06-01

    In this paper, linear and spherical semivariogram models were determined for use in kriging hourly and daily solar irradiation for every season of the year. The data used to generate the models were from 18 weather stations in western Nebraska. The models generated were tested using cross validation. The performance of the spherical and linear semivariogram models were compared with each other and also with the semivariogram models based on the best fit to the sample semivariogram of a particular day or hour. There were no significant differences in the performance of the three models. This result and the comparable errors produced by the models in kriging indicated that the linear and spherical models could be used to perform kriging at any hour and day of the year without deriving an individual semivariogram model for that day or hour.The seasonal mean absolute errors associated with kriging, within the network, when using the spherical or the linear semivariograms models were between 10% and 13% of the mean irradiation for daily irradiation and between 12% and 20% for hourly irradiation. These errors represent an improvement of 1%-2% when compared with replacing data at a given site with the data of the nearest weather station.

  4. The relation between price and daily consumption of cigarettes and bidis: findings from the Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Wave 1 Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawar, P S; Pednekar, M S; Gupta, P C; Shang, C; Quah, A C K; Fong, G T

    2014-12-01

    In India, 14% of the population use smoked tobacco products. Increasing prices of these products is one of the measures to curb their consumption. This study analyzes "unit price" and "daily consumption" of cigarettes and bidis and investigates their relation with each other. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in four states of India (Bihar, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra) as a part of the International Tobacco Control Policy (TCP) Evaluation Project (the TCP India Project) during 2010-2011. Information was collected from adult (aged ≥ 15) daily exclusive smokers of cigarette/bidi regarding (a) last purchase (purchase in pack/loose, brand and price) and (b) daily consumption. Average unit price and daily consumption was calculated for different brands and states. Regression model was used to assess the impact of price on daily consumption. Bidis were much less expensive ([symbol in text]0.39) than cigarettes ([symbol in text]3.1). The daily consumption was higher (14) among bidi smokers than cigarette smokers (8). The prices and daily consumption of bidis ([symbol in text]0.33-0.43; 12-15) and cigarettes ([symbol in text]2.9-3.6; 5-9) varied across the four states. The unit prices of bidis and cigarettes did not influence their daily consumption. Smokers purchasing bidis in packs paid substantially less per unit and purchase of bidis and cigarettes in packs influenced their consumption positively. Cigarettes although more expensive than bidis, seem very cheap if compared internationally. Hence, prices of both cigarettes and bidis do not influence their consumption.

  5. An adaptive wavelet-network model for forecasting daily total solar-radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mellit, A.; Benghanem, M.; Kalogirou, S.A.

    2006-01-01

    The combination of wavelet theory and neural networks has lead to the development of wavelet networks. Wavelet-networks are feed-forward networks using wavelets as activation functions. Wavelet-networks have been used successfully in various engineering applications such as classification, identification and control problems. In this paper, the use of adaptive wavelet-network architecture in finding a suitable forecasting model for predicting the daily total solar-radiation is investigated. Total solar-radiation is considered as the most important parameter in the performance prediction of renewable energy systems, particularly in sizing photovoltaic (PV) power systems. For this purpose, daily total solar-radiation data have been recorded during the period extending from 1981 to 2001, by a meteorological station in Algeria. The wavelet-network model has been trained by using either the 19 years of data or one year of the data. In both cases the total solar radiation data corresponding to year 2001 was used for testing the model. The network was trained to accept and handle a number of unusual cases. Results indicate that the model predicts daily total solar-radiation values with a good accuracy of approximately 97% and the mean absolute percentage error is not more than 6%. In addition, the performance of the model was compared with different neural network structures and classical models. Training algorithms for wavelet-networks require smaller numbers of iterations when compared with other neural networks. The model can be used to fill missing data in weather databases. Additionally, the proposed model can be generalized and used in different locations and for other weather data, such as sunshine duration and ambient temperature. Finally, an application using the model for sizing a PV-power system is presented in order to confirm the validity of this model

  6. Daily and 3-hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; vanderWerf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.; hide

    2011-01-01

    Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We disaggregated monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003.2009 to a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ]derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) active fire observations. Daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of burning in savannas. These patterns were consistent with earlier field and modeling work characterizing fire behavior dynamics in different ecosystems. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES WF_ABBA active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top ]down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from

  7. Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan; Hanel, Martin

    2018-04-01

    The study compares characteristics of observed sub-daily precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic with those simulated by Hadley Centre Regional Model version 3 (HadRM3) and Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model version 4 (RCA4) regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalyses and examines diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation and their dependence on intensity and surface temperature. The observed warm-season (May-September) maxima of short-duration (1, 2 and 3 h) amounts show one diurnal peak in the afternoon, which is simulated reasonably well by RCA4, although the peak occurs too early in the model. HadRM3 provides an unrealistic diurnal cycle with a nighttime peak and an afternoon minimum coinciding with the observed maximum for all three ensemble members, which suggests that convection is not captured realistically. Distorted relationships of the diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation to daily maximum temperature in HadRM3 further evidence that underlying physical mechanisms are misrepresented in this RCM. Goodness-of-fit tests indicate that generalised extreme value distribution is an applicable model for both observed and RCM-simulated precipitation maxima. However, the RCMs are not able to capture the range of the shape parameter estimates of distributions of short-duration precipitation maxima realistically, leading to either too many (nearly all for HadRM3) or too few (RCA4) grid boxes in which the shape parameter corresponds to a heavy tail. This means that the distributions of maxima of sub-daily amounts are distorted in the RCM-simulated data and do not match reality well. Therefore, projected changes of sub-daily precipitation extremes in climate change scenarios based on RCMs not resolving convection need to be interpreted with caution.

  8. Modelling daily sediment yield from a meso-scale catchment, a case study in SW Poland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keesstra, S. D.; Schoorl, J.; Temme, A. J. A. M.

    2009-01-01

    For management purposes it is important to be able to assess the sediment yield of a catchment. however, at this moment models designed for estimating sediment yield are only capable to give either very detailed storm-based information or year averages. The storm-based models require input data that are not available for most catchment. However, models that estimate yearly averages, ignore a lot of other detailed information, like daily discharge and precipitation data. There are currently no models available that model sediment yield on the temporal scale of one day and the spatial scale of a meso-scale catchment, without making use of very detailed input data. To fill this scientific and management gap, landscape evolution model LAPSUS has been adapted to model sediment yield on a daily basis. This model has the water balance as a base. To allow calibration with the discharge at the outlet, a subsurface flow module has been added to the model. (Author) 12 refs.

  9. Modelling daily sediment yield from a meso-scale catchment, a case study in SW Poland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keesstra, S. D.; Schoorl, J.; Temme, A. J. A. M.

    2009-07-01

    For management purposes it is important to be able to assess the sediment yield of a catchment. however, at this moment models designed for estimating sediment yield are only capable to give either very detailed storm-based information or year averages. The storm-based models require input data that are not available for most catchment. However, models that estimate yearly averages, ignore a lot of other detailed information, like daily discharge and precipitation data. There are currently no models available that model sediment yield on the temporal scale of one day and the spatial scale of a meso-scale catchment, without making use of very detailed input data. To fill this scientific and management gap, landscape evolution model LAPSUS has been adapted to model sediment yield on a daily basis. This model has the water balance as a base. To allow calibration with the discharge at the outlet, a subsurface flow module has been added to the model. (Author) 12 refs.

  10. Daily physical activity related to aerobic fitness and body fat in an urban sample of children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, M; Thorsson, O; Karlsson, M K

    2008-01-01

    This study evaluates associations between objectively measured daily physical activity vs aerobic fitness and body fat in children aged 8-11 years. A cross-sectional study of 225 children aged 7.9-11.1 years was performed. Abdominal fat mass (AFM) and total body fat (TBF) were quantified by dual......-energy x-ray absorptiometry. TBF was calculated as percentage of total body mass (BF%). Body fat distribution was calculated as AFM/TBF. Aerobic fitness was measured by indirect calorimetry during a maximal cycle ergometer exercise test. Daily physical activity was assessed by accelerometers for 4 days...... and daily accumulation of moderate-to-vigorous and vigorous activity was calculated. Significant relationships (Pfitness (r=0.38), whereas moderate-to-vigorous activity displayed weaker relationships...

  11. Stressor Diversity: Introduction and Empirical Integration into the Daily Stress Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koffer, Rachel E.; Ram, Nilam; Conroy, David E.; Pincus, Aaron L.; Almeida, David M.

    2016-01-01

    The present study examined if and how stressor diversity, the extent to which one’s stressor events are spread across multiple types of stressors, contributes to daily affective well-being through the adult life span. Stressor diversity was examined as a unique predictor of daily affect and as a moderator of stressor exposure and stressor reactivity effects. Analyses span two independent studies of daily stress: the National Study of Daily Experiences with N=2,022 adults, aged 33–85, assessed over T=8 days, and the Intraindividual Study of Affect, Health, and Interpersonal Behavior with N=150 adults, aged 18–89, assessed over T=63 days. Across both studies, older age was associated with less stressor diversity. Additionally, multivariate multilevel models indicated higher stressor diversity was linked with better affective well-being. Age, however, was not a consistent moderator of such associations. The combination of low stressor diversity and high stressor exposure is discussed as an operationalization of chronic stressors, and this combination was associated with particularly high negative affect and low positive affect. We believe further work will benefit from including both the frequency and diversity of stressor experiences in analyses in order to better characterize individuals’ stressor experiences. PMID:27294713

  12. Stressor diversity: Introduction and empirical integration into the daily stress model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koffer, Rachel E; Ram, Nilam; Conroy, David E; Pincus, Aaron L; Almeida, David M

    2016-06-01

    The present study examined whether and how stressor diversity, the extent to which stressor events are spread across multiple types of stressors, contributes to daily affective well-being through the adult life span. Stressor diversity was examined as a unique predictor of daily affect and as a moderator of stressor exposure and stressor reactivity effects. Analyses span 2 independent studies of daily stress: the National Study of Daily Experiences with N = 2,022 adults, aged 33 to 85 years, assessed over T = 8 days, and the Intraindividual Study of Affect, Health, and Interpersonal Behavior with N = 150 adults, aged 18 to 89 years, assessed over T = 63 days. Across both studies, older age was associated with less stressor diversity. Additionally, multivariate multilevel models indicated higher stressor diversity was linked with better affective well-being. Age, however, was not a consistent moderator of such associations. The combination of low stressor diversity and high stressor exposure is discussed as an operationalization of chronic stressors, and this combination was associated with particularly high negative affect and low positive affect. We believe further work will benefit from including both the frequency and diversity of stressor experiences in analyses in order to better characterize individuals' stressor experiences. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan; Hanel, M.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 132, 1-2 (2018), s. 515-527 ISSN 0177-798X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-18675S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : sub-daily precipitation * regional climate models * extremes * Czech Republic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 2.640, year: 2016 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-017-2102-0

  14. Accelerometer-measured daily physical activity related to aerobic fitness in children and adolescents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, Magnus; Andersen, Lars Bo

    2011-01-01

    Maximum oxygen uptake ([Vdot]O(2PEAK)) is generally considered to be the best single marker for aerobic fitness. While a positive relationship between daily physical activity and aerobic fitness has been established in adults, the relationship appears less clear in children and adolescents...

  15. The daily hour forecasting of the electrical energy production from renewable energy sources – a required condition for the operation of the new energy market model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalpachka, Gergana; Kalpachki, Georgi

    2011-01-01

    The report presented the new energy market model in Bulgaria and the main attention is directed to a daily hour forecasting of the electrical energy production from renewable energy sources. The need of development of a methodology and the development of the most precise methods for predicting is reviewed and some of the used methods at the moment are presented. An analysis of the problems related to the daily hour forecasting is done using data from the producers of electrical energy from renewable energy sources in the territory of western Bulgaria. Keywords: Renewable energy sources, daily hour forecasting, electrical energy

  16. Daily and Hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.; hide

    2011-01-01

    Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We distributed monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003-2009 on a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) active fire observations. We found that patterns of daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of bunting in savannas. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top-down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from multiple satellite sensors to improve daily emissions estimates.

  17. Hydrometeorological daily recharge assessment model (DREAM) for the Western Mountain Aquifer, Israel: Model application and effects of temporal patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffer, N. A.; Dafny, E.; Gvirtzman, H.; Navon, S.; Frumkin, A.; Morin, E.

    2010-05-01

    Recharge is a critical issue for water management. Recharge assessment and the factors affecting recharge are of scientific and practical importance. The purpose of this study was to develop a daily recharge assessment model (DREAM) on the basis of a water balance principle with input from conventional and generally available precipitation and evaporation data and demonstrate the application of this model to recharge estimation in the Western Mountain Aquifer (WMA) in Israel. The WMA (area 13,000 km2) is a karst aquifer that supplies 360-400 Mm3 yr-1 of freshwater, which constitutes 20% of Israel's freshwater and is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. DREAM was linked to a groundwater flow model (FEFLOW) to simulate monthly hydraulic heads and spring flows. The models were calibrated for 1987-2002 and validated for 2003-2007, yielding high agreement between calculated and measured values (R2 = 0.95; relative root-mean-square error = 4.8%; relative bias = 1.04). DREAM allows insights into the effect of intra-annual precipitation distribution factors on recharge. Although annual precipitation amount explains ˜70% of the variability in simulated recharge, analyses with DREAM indicate that the rainy season length is an important factor controlling recharge. Years with similar annual precipitation produce different recharge values as a result of temporal distribution throughout the rainy season. An experiment with a synthetic data set exhibits similar results, explaining ˜90% of the recharge variability. DREAM represents significant improvement over previous recharge estimation techniques in this region by providing near-real-time recharge estimates that can be used to predict the impact of climate variability on groundwater resources at high temporal and spatial resolution.

  18. Improved daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grimm, J.W.; Lynch, J.A.

    2005-01-01

    Daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models were developed for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (USA) using a linear least-squares regression approach and precipitation chemistry data from 29 National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) sites. Only weekly samples that comprised a single precipitation event were used in model development. The most significant variables in both ammonium and nitrate models included: precipitation volume, the number of days since the last event, a measure of seasonality, latitude, and the proportion of land within 8 km covered by forest or devoted to industry and transportation. Additional variables included in the nitrate model were the proportion of land within 0.8 km covered by water and/or forest. Local and regional ammonia and nitrogen oxide emissions were not as well correlated as land cover. Modeled concentrations compared very well with event chemistry data collected at six NADP/AirMoN sites within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Wet deposition estimates were also consistent with observed deposition at selected sites. Accurately describing the spatial distribution of precipitation volume throughout the watershed is important in providing critical estimates of wet-fall deposition of ammonium and nitrate. - A linear least-squares regression approach was used to develop daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

  19. A Comparison of Satellite Based, Modeled Derived Daily Solar Radiation Data with Observed Data for the Continental US

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Jeffrey W.; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Wilkens, Paul W.; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Hoell, James M.

    2010-01-01

    Many applications of simulation models and related decision support tools for agriculture and natural resource management require daily meteorological data as inputs. Availability and quality of such data, however, often constrain research and decision support activities that require use of these tools. Daily solar radiation (SRAD) data are especially problematic because the instruments require electronic integrators, accurate sensors are expensive, and calibration standards are seldom available. The Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA/POWER; power.larc.nasa.gov) project at the NASA Langley Research Center estimates daily solar radiation based on data that are derived from satellite observations of outgoing visible radiances and atmospheric parameters based upon satellite observations and assimilation models. The solar data are available for a global 1 degree x 1 degree coordinate grid. SRAD can also be estimated based on attenuation of extraterrestrial radiation (Q0) using daily temperature and rainfall data to estimate the optical thickness of the atmosphere. This study compares daily solar radiation data from NASA/POWER (SRADNP) with instrument readings from 295 stations (SRADOB), as well as with values that were estimated with the WGENR solar generator. WGENR was used both with daily temperature and precipitation records from the stations reporting solar data and records from the NOAA Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), thus providing two additional sources of solar data, SRADWG and SRADCO. Values of SRADNP for different grid cells consistently showed higher correlations (typically 0.85 to 0.95) with SRADOB data than did SRADWG or SRADCO for sites within the corresponding cells. Mean values of SRADOB, SRADWG and SRADNP for sites within a grid cell usually were within 1 MJm-2d-1 of each other, but NASA/POWER values averaged 1.1 MJm-2d-1 lower than SRADOB. The magnitude of this bias was greater at lower latitudes and during summer months and may be at

  20. Perceived motor problems in daily life: Focus group interviews with people with Noonan syndrome and their relatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Croonen, E.A.; Harmsen, M.; Burgt, I. van der; Draaisma, J.M.T.; Noordam, C.; Essink, M.; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, M.W.G.

    2016-01-01

    Studies from a patient perspective on motor performance problems in Noonan syndrome in daily life are lacking. The aims of this study were to provide insight into the motor performance problems that people with Noonan syndrome and/or their relatives experienced, the major consequences they suffered,

  1. A computational cognitive model of self-efficacy and daily adherence in mHealth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirolli, Peter

    2016-12-01

    Mobile health (mHealth) applications provide an excellent opportunity for collecting rich, fine-grained data necessary for understanding and predicting day-to-day health behavior change dynamics. A computational predictive model (ACT-R-DStress) is presented and fit to individual daily adherence in 28-day mHealth exercise programs. The ACT-R-DStress model refines the psychological construct of self-efficacy. To explain and predict the dynamics of self-efficacy and predict individual performance of targeted behaviors, the self-efficacy construct is implemented as a theory-based neurocognitive simulation of the interaction of behavioral goals, memories of past experiences, and behavioral performance.

  2. The effect of reproductive performance on the dairy cattle herd value assessed by integrating a daily dynamic programming model with a daily Markov chain model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalantari, A S; Cabrera, V E

    2012-10-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the effect of reproductive performance on dairy cattle herd value. Herd value was defined as the herd's average retention payoff (RPO). Individual cow RPO is the expected profit from keeping the cow compared with immediate replacement. First, a daily dynamic programming model was developed to calculate the RPO of all cow states in a herd. Second, a daily Markov chain model was applied to estimate the herd demographics. Finally, the herd value was calculated by aggregating the RPO of all cows in the herd. Cow states were described by 5 milk yield classes (76, 88, 100, 112, and 124% with respect to the average), 9 lactations, 750 d in milk, and 282 d in pregnancy. Five different reproductive programs were studied (RP1 to RP5). Reproductive program 1 used 100% timed artificial insemination (TAI; 42% conception rate for first TAI and 30% for second and later services) and the other programs combined TAI with estrus detection. The proportion of cows receiving artificial insemination after estrus detection ranged from 30 to 80%, and conception rate ranged from 25 to 35%. These 5 reproductive programs were categorized according to their 21-d pregnancy rate (21-d PR), which is an indication of the rate that eligible cows become pregnant every 21 d. The 21-d PR was 17% for RP1, 14% for RP2, 16% for RP3, 18% for RP4, and 20% for RP5. Results showed a positive relationship between 21-d PR and herd value. The most extreme herd value difference between 2 reproductive programs was $77/cow per yr for average milk yield (RP5 - RP2), $13/cow per yr for lowest milk yield (RP5 - RP1), and $160/cow per yr for highest milk yield (RP5 - RP2). Reproductive programs were ranked based on their calculated herd value. With the exception of the best reproductive program (RP5), all other programs showed some level of ranking change according to milk yield. The most dramatic ranking change was observed in RP1, which moved from being the worst ranked

  3. Body fat related to daily physical activity and insulin concentrations in non-diabetic children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dencker, Magnus; Thorsson, Ola; Karlsson, Magnus K

    2007-01-01

    This study explored the associations between body fat versus daily physical activity and insulin concentrations in non-diabetic young children in a cross-sectional study of 172 children (93 boys and 79 girls) aged 8-11 years. Blood samples were analysed for serum insulin and daily physical activity......%). Body fat distribution was calculated as AFM/TBF. Body fat distribution was independently linked to both insulin concentrations and physical activity. In contrast, TBF, AFM, and BF% were linked to physical activity only and not to insulin concentrations. In conclusion in this population of non-diabetic...... was measured by accelerometers. Time spent performing vigorous activity was estimated from accelerometer data by using established cut-off points. Dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) was used to quantify abdominal fat mass (AFM) and total body fat (TBF), also calculated as percentage of body weight (BF...

  4. LiveOcean: A Daily Forecast Model of Ocean Acidification for Shellfish Growers

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacCready, P.; Siedlecki, S. A.; McCabe, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    The coastal estuaries of the NE Pacific host a highly productive shellfish industry, but in the past decade they have suffered from many years in which no natural set of oysters occurred. It appears that coastal waters with low Aragonite saturation state may be the cause. This "acidified" water is the result of (i) upwelling of NE Pacific water from near the shelf break that is already low in pH, and (ii) further acidification of that water by productivity and remineralization on the shelf, and (iii) increasing atmospheric CO2. As part of a coordinated research response to this issue, we have developed the LiveOcean modeling system, which creates daily three-day forecasts of circulation and biogeochemical properties in Oregon-Washington-British Columbia coastal and estuarine waters. The system includes realistic tides, atmospheric forcing (from a regional WRF model), ocean boundary conditions (from HYCOM), and rivers (from USGS and Environment Canada). The model is also used for Harmful Algal Bloom prediction. There has been extensive validation of hindcast runs for currents and hydrography, and more limited validation of biogeochemical variables. Model results are pushed daily to the cloud, and made available to the public through the NANOOS Visualization System (NVS). NVS also includes automated model-data comparisons with real-time NDBC and OOI moorings. Future work will focus on optimizing the utility of this system for regional shellfish growers.

  5. Objectively Measured Daily Physical Activity and Postural Changes as Related to Positive and Negative Affect Using Ambulatory Monitoring Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggio, Daniel; Wallace, Karen; Boreham, Nicola; Shankar, Aparna; Steptoe, Andrew; Hamer, Mark

    2017-09-01

    The aim of the study was to determine whether objectively measured daily physical activity and posture of sitting, standing, and sit-to-stand transitions are associated with daily assessments of affect. Participants (N = 51, 49% female) wore ActivPal accelerometers for 24 h/d for seven consecutive days. Time spent sitting, standing, and being physically active and sit-to-stand transitions were derived for each day. Participants also completed a mood inventory each evening. Multilevel models examined within- and between-person associations of daily physical activity with positive and negative affect, adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, education, and sleep duration. Within-person associations showed that a 1-hour increase in daily physical activity was associated with a decrease in negative affect over the same day (B = -0.11, 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.21 to -0.01). Between-person associations indicated a borderline significant association between higher average daily physical activity levels and higher positive affect (B = 1.85, 95% CI = -0.25 to 3.94). There were no between- or within-person associations between sitting, standing, and sit-to-stand transitions with affect. Promoting physical activity may be a potential intervention strategy to acutely suppress negative affective states.

  6. Evaluation of disabilities and activities of daily living of war-related bilateral lower extremity amputees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimzadeh, Mohammad H; Moradi, Ali; Bozorgnia, Shahram; Hallaj-Moghaddam, Mohammad

    2016-02-01

    Long-term consequences and the activities of daily living of bilateral lower limb amputation are not well documented. The aims of our study were to identify the long-term effects of bilateral lower extremity amputations on daily activities and understand how these amputees cope with their mobility assistive devices. Cross-sectional study. A total of 291 veterans with war bilateral lower limb amputations accepted to participate in a cross-sectional study. The average of follow-up was 25.4 years. A total of 152 amputees (54%) were involved in sports averagely 6.7 h per week. Bilateral amputees walk 10 m by the average of 15 ± 33 s, and they could walk continuously with their prosthesis 315 ± 295 m. They wore their prosthesis 6.8 ± 1.7 days per week and 7.9 ± 8.1 h per day. Of these, 6.7% of bilateral lower limb amputees needed help to wear their prosthesis; 88.3% of amputees used assistant device for walking. According to this survey, 73 (42%) prostheses in right limb were appropriate, 95 (54.6%) needed to be replaced, and 6 (3.4) needed to be fixed. On the left side, it was 76 (42%), 92 (52.0%), and 9 (5.1%), respectively. A total of 203 (74.9%) amputees reported limitations in at least one domain of the activities of daily living. The most common single item that affected the patients was ascending and descending stairs by the score of 66% of normal population. Veterans with bilateral lower limb amputations suffering from vast categories of daily problems. This study and its results confirm that bilateral lower limb amputees have major progressive disabilities in daily activities and their social performance. This should attract the attention of amputees' administrative organizations, social workers, health-care providers and caregiver providers. © The International Society for Prosthetics and Orthotics 2014.

  7. Generating daily weather data for ecosystem modelling in the Congo River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petritsch, Richard; Pietsch, Stephan A.

    2010-05-01

    Daily weather data are an important constraint for diverse applications in ecosystem research. In particular, temperature and precipitation are the main drivers for forest ecosystem productivity. Mechanistic modelling theory heavily relies on daily values for minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, incident solar radiation and vapour pressure deficit. Although the number of climate measurement stations increased during the last centuries, there are still regions with limited climate data. For example, in the WMO database there are only 16 stations located in Gabon with daily weather measurements. Additionally, the available time series are heavily affected by measurement errors or missing values. In the WMO record for Gabon, on average every second day is missing. Monthly means are more robust and may be estimated over larger areas. Therefore, a good alternative is to interpolate monthly mean values using a sparse network of measurement stations, and based on these monthly data generate daily weather data with defined characteristics. The weather generator MarkSim was developed to produce climatological time series for crop modelling in the tropics. It provides daily values for maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and solar radiation. The monthly means can either be derived from the internal climate surfaces or prescribed as additional inputs. We compared the generated outputs observations from three climate stations in Gabon (Lastourville, Moanda and Mouilla) and found that maximum temperature and solar radiation were heavily overestimated during the long dry season. This is due to the internal dependency of the solar radiation estimates to precipitation. With no precipitation a cloudless sky is assumed and thus high incident solar radiation and a large diurnal temperature range. However, in reality it is cloudy in the Congo River Basin during the long dry season. Therefore, we applied a correction factor to solar radiation and temperature range

  8. Daily sleep, weekly working hours, and risk of work-related injury: US National Health Interview Survey (2004-2008).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, David A; Folkard, Simon; Willetts, Joanna L; Smith, Gordon S

    2010-07-01

    The impact on health and safety of the combination of chronic sleep deficits and extended working hours has received worldwide attention. Using the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), an in-person household survey using a multistage, stratified, clustered sample design representing the US civilian, non-institutionalized population, the authors estimated the effect of total daily self-reported sleep time and weekly working hours on the risk of a work-related injury. During the survey period 2004-2008, 177,576 persons (ages 18-74) sampled within households reported that they worked at a paid job the previous week and reported their total weekly work hours. A randomly selected adult in each household (n = 75,718) was asked to report his/her usual (average) total daily sleep hours the prior week; complete responses were obtained for 74,415 (98.3%) workers. Weighted annualized work-related injury rates were then estimated across a priori defined categories of both average total daily sleep hours and weekly working hours. To account for the complex sampling design, weighted multiple logistic regression was used to independently estimate the risk of a work-related injury for categories of usual daily sleep duration and weekly working hours, controlling for important covariates and potential confounders of age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, type of pay, industry, occupation (proxy for job risk), body mass index, and the interaction between sleep duration and work hours. Based on the inclusion criteria, there were an estimated 129,950,376 workers annually at risk and 3,634,446 work-related medically treated injury episodes (overall injury rate 2.80/100 workers). Unadjusted annualized injury rates/100 workers across weekly work hours were 2.03 (60 h). With regards to self-reported daily sleep time, the estimated annualized injury rates/100 workers were 7.89 (10 h). After controlling for weekly work hours, and aforementioned covariates, significant increases in risk/1

  9. A Model for Hourly Solar Radiation Data Generation from Daily Solar Radiation Data Using a Generalized Regression Artificial Neural Network

    OpenAIRE

    Khatib, Tamer; Elmenreich, Wilfried

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a model for predicting hourly solar radiation data using daily solar radiation averages. The proposed model is a generalized regression artificial neural network. This model has three inputs, namely, mean daily solar radiation, hour angle, and sunset hour angle. The output layer has one node which is mean hourly solar radiation. The training and development of the proposed model are done using MATLAB and 43800 records of hourly global solar radiation. The results show that...

  10. Multiobjective Optimal Algorithm for Automatic Calibration of Daily Streamflow Forecasting Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Single-objection function cannot describe the characteristics of the complicated hydrologic system. Consequently, it stands to reason that multiobjective functions are needed for calibration of hydrologic model. The multiobjective algorithms based on the theory of nondominate are employed to solve this multiobjective optimal problem. In this paper, a novel multiobjective optimization method based on differential evolution with adaptive Cauchy mutation and Chaos searching (MODE-CMCS is proposed to optimize the daily streamflow forecasting model. Besides, to enhance the diversity performance of Pareto solutions, a more precise crowd distance assigner is presented in this paper. Furthermore, the traditional generalized spread metric (SP is sensitive with the size of Pareto set. A novel diversity performance metric, which is independent of Pareto set size, is put forward in this research. The efficacy of the new algorithm MODE-CMCS is compared with the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II on a daily streamflow forecasting model based on support vector machine (SVM. The results verify that the performance of MODE-CMCS is superior to the NSGA-II for automatic calibration of hydrologic model.

  11. Daily air quality forecast (gases and aerosols) over Switzerland. Modeling tool description and first results analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couach, O.; Kirchner, F.; Porchet, P.; Balin, I.; Parlange, M.; Balin, D.

    2009-04-01

    Map3D, the acronym for "Mesoscale Air Pollution 3D modelling", was developed at the EFLUM laboratory (EPFL) and received an INNOGRANTS awards in Summer 2007 in order to move from a research phase to a professional product giving daily air quality forecast. It is intended to give an objective base for political decisions addressing the improvement of regional air quality. This tool is a permanent modelling system which provides daily forecast of the local meteorology and the air pollutant (gases and particles) concentrations. Map3D has been successfully developed and calculates each day at the EPFL site a three days air quality forecast over Europe and the Alps with 50 km and 15 km resolution, respectively (see http://map3d.epfl.ch). The Map3D user interface is a web-based application with a PostgreSQL database. It is written in object-oriented PHP5 on a MVC (Model-View-Controller) architecture. Our prediction system is operational since August 2008. A first validation of the calculations for Switzerland is performed for the period of August 2008 - January 2009 comparing the model results for O3, NO2 and particulates with the results of the Nabel measurements stations. The subject of air pollution regimes (NOX/VOC) and specific indicators application with the forecast will be also addressed.

  12. Incorporating Daily Flood Control Objectives Into a Monthly Stochastic Dynamic Programing Model for a Hydroelectric Complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druce, Donald J.

    1990-01-01

    A monthly stochastic dynamic programing model was recently developed and implemented at British Columbia (B.C.) Hydro to provide decision support for short-term energy exports and, if necessary, for flood control on the Peace River in northern British Columbia. The model establishes the marginal cost of supplying energy from the B.C. Hydro system, as well as a monthly operating policy for the G.M. Shrum and Peace Canyon hydroelectric plants and the Williston Lake storage reservoir. A simulation model capable of following the operating policy then determines the probability of refilling Williston Lake and possible spill rates and volumes. Reservoir inflows are input to both models in daily and monthly formats. The results indicate that flood control can be accommodated without sacrificing significant export revenue.

  13. Incorporating daily flood control objectives into a monthly stochastic dynamic programming model for a hydroelectric complex

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Druce, D.J. (British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada))

    1990-01-01

    A monthly stochastic dynamic programing model was recently developed and implemented at British Columbia (B.C.) Hydro to provide decision support for short-term energy exports and, if necessary, for flood control on the Peace River in northern British Columbia. The model established the marginal cost of supplying energy from the B.C. Hydro system, as well as a monthly operating policy for the G.M. Shrum and Peace Canyon hydroelectric plants and the Williston Lake storage reservoir. A simulation model capable of following the operating policy then determines the probability of refilling Williston Lake and possible spill rates and volumes. Reservoir inflows are input to both models in daily and monthly formats. The results indicate that flood control can be accommodated without sacrificing significant export revenue.

  14. Diffuse radiation models and monthly-average, daily, diffuse data for a wide latitude range

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gopinathan, K.K.; Soler, A.

    1995-01-01

    Several years of measured data on global and diffuse radiation and sunshine duration for 40 widely spread locations in the latitude range 36° S to 60° N are used to develop and test models for estimating monthly-mean, daily, diffuse radiation on horizontal surfaces. Applicability of the clearness-index (K) and sunshine fraction (SSO) models for diffuse estimation and the effect of combining several variables into a single multilinear equation are tested. Correlations connecting the diffuse to global fraction (HdH) with K and SSO predict Hd values more accurately than their separate use. Among clearness-index and sunshine-fraction models, SSO models are found to have better accuracy if correlations are developed for wide latitude ranges. By including a term for declinations in the correlation, the accuracy of the estimated data can be marginally improved. The addition of latitude to the equation does not help to improve the accuracy further. (author)

  15. Coping with Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Engaging with Information to Inform Health-Related Decision Making in Daily Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Restall, Gayle J; Simms, Alexandria M; Walker, John R; Haviva, Clove; Graff, Lesley A; Sexton, Kathryn A; Miller, Norine; Targownik, Laura E; Bernstein, Charles N

    2017-08-01

    People with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) require disease and lifestyle information to make health-related decisions in their daily lives. Derived from a larger qualitative study of the lived experiences of people with IBD, we report on findings that explored how people with IBD engage with health-related information in their daily lives. Participants were recruited primarily from the Manitoba IBD Cohort Study. We used purposive sampling to select people with a breadth of characteristics and experiences. Individual interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Data were analyzed using inductive qualitative methods consistent with a phenomenological approach. Forty-five people with IBD participated; 51% were women. Findings highlighted the temporal and contextual influences on engagement with health-related information. Temporal influences were described as the changing need for health-related information over time. Participants identified 6 contextual factors influencing engagement with information to make health decisions: (1) emotional and attitudinal responses, (2) perceived benefits and risks, (3) trust in the source of the information, (4) knowledge and skills to access and use information, (5) availability of evidence to support decisions, and (6) social and economic environments. Findings illustrate the changing needs for health-related information over the course of IBD, and with evolving health and life circumstances. Practitioners can be responsive to information needs of people with IBD by having high-quality information available at the right time in a variety of formats and by supporting the incorporation of information in daily life.

  16. Effect of Estimated Daily Global Solar Radiation Data on the Results of Crop Growth Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herbert Formayer

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available The results of previous studies have suggested that estimated daily globalradiation (RG values contain an error that could compromise the precision of subsequentcrop model applications. The following study presents a detailed site and spatial analysis ofthe RG error propagation in CERES and WOFOST crop growth models in Central Europeanclimate conditions. The research was conducted i at the eight individual sites in Austria andthe Czech Republic where measured daily RG values were available as a reference, withseven methods for RG estimation being tested, and ii for the agricultural areas of the CzechRepublic using daily data from 52 weather stations, with five RG estimation methods. In thelatter case the RG values estimated from the hours of sunshine using the ångström-Prescottformula were used as the standard method because of the lack of measured RG data. At thesite level we found that even the use of methods based on hours of sunshine, which showedthe lowest bias in RG estimates, led to a significant distortion of the key crop model outputs.When the ångström-Prescott method was used to estimate RG, for example, deviationsgreater than ±10 per cent in winter wheat and spring barley yields were noted in 5 to 6 percent of cases. The precision of the yield estimates and other crop model outputs was lowerwhen RG estimates based on the diurnal temperature range and cloud cover were used (mean bias error 2.0 to 4.1 per cent. The methods for estimating RG from the diurnal temperature range produced a wheat yield bias of more than 25 per cent in 12 to 16 per cent of the seasons. Such uncertainty in the crop model outputs makes the reliability of any seasonal yield forecasts or climate change impact assessments questionable if they are based on this type of data. The spatial assessment of the RG data uncertainty propagation over the winter wheat yields also revealed significant differences within the study area. We

  17. Modelling dense relational data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herlau, Tue; Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard

    2012-01-01

    they are not naturally suited for kernel K-means. We propose a generative Bayesian model for dense matrices which generalize kernel K-means to consider off-diagonal interactions in matrices of interactions, and demonstrate its ability to detect structure on both artificial data and two real data sets....

  18. Models as Relational Categories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kokkonen, Tommi

    2017-01-01

    Model-based learning (MBL) has an established position within science education. It has been found to enhance conceptual understanding and provide a way for engaging students in authentic scientific activity. Despite ample research, few studies have examined the cognitive processes regarding learning scientific concepts within MBL. On the other…

  19. Simulation And Forecasting of Daily Pm10 Concentrations Using Autoregressive Models In Kagithane Creek Valley, Istanbul

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ağaç, Kübra; Koçak, Kasım; Deniz, Ali

    2015-04-01

    A time series approach using autoregressive model (AR), moving average model (MA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) were used in this study to simulate and forecast daily PM10 concentrations in Kagithane Creek Valley, Istanbul. Hourly PM10 concentrations have been measured in Kagithane Creek Valley between 2010 and 2014 periods. Bosphorus divides the city in two parts as European and Asian parts. The historical part of the city takes place in Golden Horn. Our study area Kagithane Creek Valley is connected with this historical part. The study area is highly polluted because of its topographical structure and industrial activities. Also population density is extremely high in this site. The dispersion conditions are highly poor in this creek valley so it is necessary to calculate PM10 levels for air quality and human health. For given period there were some missing PM10 concentration values so to make an accurate calculations and to obtain exact results gap filling method was applied by Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). SSA is a new and efficient method for gap filling and it is an state-of-art modeling. SSA-MTM Toolkit was used for our study. SSA is considered as a noise reduction algorithm because it decomposes an original time series to trend (if exists), oscillatory and noise components by way of a singular value decomposition. The basic SSA algorithm has stages of decomposition and reconstruction. For given period daily and monthly PM10 concentrations were calculated and episodic periods are determined. Long term and short term PM10 concentrations were analyzed according to European Union (EU) standards. For simulation and forecasting of high level PM10 concentrations, meteorological data (wind speed, pressure and temperature) were used to see the relationship between daily PM10 concentrations. Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) was also applied to the data to see the periodicity and according to these periods models were built

  20. Framework for determining airport daily departure and arrival delay thresholds: statistical modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesonga, Ronald; Nabugoomu, Fabian

    2016-01-01

    The study derives a framework for assessing airport efficiency through evaluating optimal arrival and departure delay thresholds. Assumptions of airport efficiency measurements, though based upon minimum numeric values such as 15 min of turnaround time, cannot be extrapolated to determine proportions of delay-days of an airport. This study explored the concept of delay threshold to determine the proportion of delay-days as an expansion of the theory of delay and our previous work. Data-driven approach using statistical modelling was employed to a limited set of determinants of daily delay at an airport. For the purpose of testing the efficacy of the threshold levels, operational data for Entebbe International Airport were used as a case study. Findings show differences in the proportions of delay at departure (μ = 0.499; 95 % CI = 0.023) and arrival (μ = 0.363; 95 % CI = 0.022). Multivariate logistic model confirmed an optimal daily departure and arrival delay threshold of 60 % for the airport given the four probable thresholds {50, 60, 70, 80}. The decision for the threshold value was based on the number of significant determinants, the goodness of fit statistics based on the Wald test and the area under the receiver operating curves. These findings propose a modelling framework to generate relevant information for the Air Traffic Management relevant in planning and measurement of airport operational efficiency.

  1. Modeling and forecasting foreign exchange daily closing prices with normal inverse Gaussian

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teneng, Dean

    2013-09-01

    We fit the normal inverse Gaussian(NIG) distribution to foreign exchange closing prices using the open software package R and select best models by Käärik and Umbleja (2011) proposed strategy. We observe that daily closing prices (12/04/2008 - 07/08/2012) of CHF/JPY, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, NZD/USD, QAR/CHF, QAR/EUR, SAR/CHF, SAR/EUR, TND/CHF and TND/EUR are excellent fits while EGP/EUR and EUR/GBP are good fits with a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test p-value of 0.062 and 0.08 respectively. It was impossible to estimate normal inverse Gaussian parameters (by maximum likelihood; computational problem) for JPY/CHF but CHF/JPY was an excellent fit. Thus, while the stochastic properties of an exchange rate can be completely modeled with a probability distribution in one direction, it may be impossible the other way around. We also demonstrate that foreign exchange closing prices can be forecasted with the normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) Lévy process, both in cases where the daily closing prices can and cannot be modeled by NIG distribution.

  2. Let it be and keep on going! Acceptance and daily occupational well-being in relation to negative work events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuba, Katharina; Scheibe, Susanne

    2017-01-01

    [Correction Notice: An Erratum for this article was reported in Vol 22(1) of Journal of Occupational Health Psychology (see record 2016-25216-001). In the article, there were errors in the Participants subsection in the Method section. The last three sentences should read "Job tenure ranged from less than 1 year to 32 years, with an average of 8.83 years (SD 7.80). Participants interacted with clients on average 5.44 hr a day (SD 2.41). The mean working time was 7.36 hr per day (SD 1.91)."] Negative work events can diminish daily occupational well-being, yet the degree to which they do so depends on the way in which people deal with their emotions. The aim of the current study was to examine the role of acceptance in the link between daily negative work events and occupational well-being. We hypothesized that acceptance would be associated with better daily occupational well-being, operationalized as low end-of-day negative emotions and fatigue, and high work engagement. Furthermore, we predicted that acceptance would buffer the adverse impact of negative work events on daily well-being. A microlongitudinal study across 10 work days was carried out with 92 employees of the health care sector, yielding a total of 832 daily observations. As expected, acceptance was associated with lower end-of-day negative emotions and fatigue (though there was no association with work engagement) across the 10-day period. Furthermore, acceptance moderated the effect of negative event occurrence on daily well-being: Highly accepting employees experienced less increase in negative emotions and less reduction in work engagement (though comparable end-of-day fatigue) on days with negative work events, relative to days without negative work events, than did less accepting employees. These findings highlight affective, resource-saving, and motivational benefits of acceptance for daily occupational well-being and demonstrate that acceptance is associated with enhanced resilience to daily

  3. Estimation and prediction of maximum daily rainfall at Sagar Island using best fit probability models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandal, S.; Choudhury, B. U.

    2015-07-01

    Sagar Island, setting on the continental shelf of Bay of Bengal, is one of the most vulnerable deltas to the occurrence of extreme rainfall-driven climatic hazards. Information on probability of occurrence of maximum daily rainfall will be useful in devising risk management for sustaining rainfed agrarian economy vis-a-vis food and livelihood security. Using six probability distribution models and long-term (1982-2010) daily rainfall data, we studied the probability of occurrence of annual, seasonal and monthly maximum daily rainfall (MDR) in the island. To select the best fit distribution models for annual, seasonal and monthly time series based on maximum rank with minimum value of test statistics, three statistical goodness of fit tests, viz. Kolmogorove-Smirnov test (K-S), Anderson Darling test ( A 2 ) and Chi-Square test ( X 2) were employed. The fourth probability distribution was identified from the highest overall score obtained from the three goodness of fit tests. Results revealed that normal probability distribution was best fitted for annual, post-monsoon and summer seasons MDR, while Lognormal, Weibull and Pearson 5 were best fitted for pre-monsoon, monsoon and winter seasons, respectively. The estimated annual MDR were 50, 69, 86, 106 and 114 mm for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20 and 25 years, respectively. The probability of getting an annual MDR of >50, >100, >150, >200 and >250 mm were estimated as 99, 85, 40, 12 and 03 % level of exceedance, respectively. The monsoon, summer and winter seasons exhibited comparatively higher probabilities (78 to 85 %) for MDR of >100 mm and moderate probabilities (37 to 46 %) for >150 mm. For different recurrence intervals, the percent probability of MDR varied widely across intra- and inter-annual periods. In the island, rainfall anomaly can pose a climatic threat to the sustainability of agricultural production and thus needs adequate adaptation and mitigation measures.

  4. Proteasome activity related with the daily physical activity of COPD patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee KY

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Kang-Yun Lee,1,2,* Tzu-Tao Chen,1,* Ling-Ling Chiang,1,3 Hsiao-Chi Chuang,1,3 Po-Hao Feng,1,2 Wen-Te Liu,1–3 Kuan-Yuan Chen,1 Shu-Chuan Ho1,3 1Division of Pulmonary Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Shuang Ho Hospital, Taipei Medical University, New Taipei City, 2Division of Pulmonary Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, 3School of Respiratory Therapy, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan *These authors contributed equally to this work Background: COPD is a debilitating disease that affects patients’ daily lives. One’s daily physical activity (DPA decreases due to multifactorial causes, and this decrease is correlated with a poor prognosis in COPD patients. Muscle wasting may at least be partly due to increased activity of the ubiquitin proteasome pathway and apoptosis.Methods: This study investigated the relationships among DPA, circulating proteasome activity, and protein carbonyl in COPD patients and healthy subjects (HSs. This study included 57 participants (42 patients and 15 healthy subjects. Ambulatory DPA was measured using actigraphy, and oxygen saturation was measured with a pulse oximeter.Results: COPD patients had lower DPA, lower 6 min walking distance (6MWD, lower delta saturation pulse oxygenation (SpO2 during the 6MWT, and lower delta SpO2 during DPA than HSs. COPD patients had higher proteasome activity and protein carbonyl than HSs. Circulating proteasome activity was significantly negatively correlated with DPA (r=−0.568, P<0.05 in COPD patients, whereas delta SpO2 during the 6MWT was significantly positively correlated with proteasome activity (r=0.685, P<0.05 in HSs. Protein carbonyl was significantly negatively correlated with the body mass index (r=−0.318, P<0.05, mid-arm circumference (r=0.350, P<0.05, calf circumference (r=0.322, P<0.05, forced expiratory volume in the first second (r=−0.441, P<0

  5. Socio-demographic and lifestyle-related characteristics associated with self-reported any, daily and occasional smoking during pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, Ruth; Manniën, Judith; de Jonge, Ank; Heymans, Martijn W; Klomp, Trudy; Hutton, Eileen K; Brug, Johannes

    2013-01-01

    Smoking during pregnancy is a risk factor for various adverse birth outcomes. In order to develop effective interventions, insight is needed into the characteristics associated with pregnant women who smoke. Unknown is whether these characteristics differ for women who smoke daily and women who smoke occasionally. Our study sample, drawn from the DELIVER study (Sept 2009-March 2011), consisted of 6107 pregnant women in primary care in the Netherlands who were up to 34 weeks pregnant. The associations of thirteen socio-demographic or lifestyle-related characteristics with 'any smoking', 'daily smoking' and 'occasional smoking' during pregnancy were tested using multiple binary logistic regression with general estimating equations (GEE). Characteristics most strongly associated with any smoking were low education (OR 10.3; 95% confidence interval (CI) 7.0-15.4), being of Turkish ethnicity (OR 3.9; 95%CI 2.3-6.7) and having no partner (OR 3.7; 95%CI 2.3-6.0). Women of Dutch ethnicity were three times more likely to smoke than those from Dutch-speaking Caribbean countries and non-religious women were much more likely to smoke than religious women. Low education was markedly more strongly associated with daily smoking than with occasional smoking (OR 20.3; 95%CI 13.2-31.3 versus OR 6.0; 95%CI 3.4-10.5). Daily smokers were more likely to be associated with other unfavorable lifestyle-related characteristics, such as not taking folic acid, being underweight, and having had an unplanned pregnancy. There is still much potential for health gain with respect to smoking during pregnancy in the Netherlands. Daily and occasional smokers appear to differ in characteristics, and therefore possibly require different interventions.

  6. Socio-demographic and lifestyle-related characteristics associated with self-reported any, daily and occasional smoking during pregnancy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Baron

    Full Text Available Smoking during pregnancy is a risk factor for various adverse birth outcomes. In order to develop effective interventions, insight is needed into the characteristics associated with pregnant women who smoke. Unknown is whether these characteristics differ for women who smoke daily and women who smoke occasionally. Our study sample, drawn from the DELIVER study (Sept 2009-March 2011, consisted of 6107 pregnant women in primary care in the Netherlands who were up to 34 weeks pregnant. The associations of thirteen socio-demographic or lifestyle-related characteristics with 'any smoking', 'daily smoking' and 'occasional smoking' during pregnancy were tested using multiple binary logistic regression with general estimating equations (GEE. Characteristics most strongly associated with any smoking were low education (OR 10.3; 95% confidence interval (CI 7.0-15.4, being of Turkish ethnicity (OR 3.9; 95%CI 2.3-6.7 and having no partner (OR 3.7; 95%CI 2.3-6.0. Women of Dutch ethnicity were three times more likely to smoke than those from Dutch-speaking Caribbean countries and non-religious women were much more likely to smoke than religious women. Low education was markedly more strongly associated with daily smoking than with occasional smoking (OR 20.3; 95%CI 13.2-31.3 versus OR 6.0; 95%CI 3.4-10.5. Daily smokers were more likely to be associated with other unfavorable lifestyle-related characteristics, such as not taking folic acid, being underweight, and having had an unplanned pregnancy. There is still much potential for health gain with respect to smoking during pregnancy in the Netherlands. Daily and occasional smokers appear to differ in characteristics, and therefore possibly require different interventions.

  7. DAILY STEM GROWTH PATTERN IN IRRIGATED APPLE ORCHARDS FROM ARGES COUNTY IN RELATION TO CLIMATE CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Chitu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In terms of climate change manifested in the last 30 years in Romania (1982-2011, average data for 29 localities and characterized by a significant increase in maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the summer months and increased rainfall deficit, fruit trees farm efficiency is becoming increasingly dependent on strict control of water management through irrigation systems. Thus, the maximum air temperatures experienced average growth trend per decade of 0.88°C, 0.82°C and 0.70°C in June, July and August, respectively, and minimum of 0.61°C, 0.67°C and 0.75°C, in the same months. In this context, ensuring continuous easily accessible soil water content to the root system of the trees, in correlation with plant consumption, has become the most widely used measure to mitigate the negative effects of rising temperatures and rainfall deficits. One of the most accurate methods of water stress early diagnosis and monitoring in a very short step of the fruit trees growth processes is the measurement of trunk diameter variations (SDV with electronic dendrometers. To highlight the advantages of applying the method to irrigated apple (Malus domestica Borkh. plantations from the southern Romania, we have organized two experiences with Redix and Braeburn cvs. grafted on M9 in 2009-2012 period. For measurements were used DEX 100 (Dynamax dendrometers and GP1 dataloggers (Delta-T Devices. It was found that all SDV-derived indices (maximum daily shrinkage (MDS, daily recovery (DR and daily growth (DG of the trees trunk between two successive days may be used for early diagnosis of water and temperature stress. DG was significantly negatively influenced by MDS in both cultivars and in all months of the year, except in September. The Redix cv. DG was inhibited only by the MDS values greater than 0.36 mm. DG is a much less sensitive indicator of water and heat trees stress than MDS. Emergence of water stress was highlighted by two indicators: soil

  8. Relations of Early Motor Skills on Age and Socialization, Communication, and Daily Living in Young Children With Developmental Disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, Megan; Ross, Samantha; McIntyre, Laura Lee; Tepfer, Amanda

    2017-04-01

    Young children with developmental disabilities experience known deficits in salient child behaviors, such as social behaviors, communication, and aspects of daily living, behaviors that generally improve with chronological age. The purpose of this study was to examine the mediating effects of motor skills on relations of age and salient child behaviors in a group of young children with developmental disabilities, thus tapping into the potential influences of motor skills in the development of salient child behaviors. One hundred thirteen young children with developmental disabilities participated in this study. Independent mediation analysis, with gender as a moderator between the mediating and outcome variable, indicated that motor skills meditated relations between age and socialization, communication, and daily living skills in young male children with developmental disabilities, but not female participants. Findings suggest motor skill content needs to be considered in combination with other child behaviors commonly focused on in early intervention.

  9. Reconstruction of daily erythemal UV radiation values for the last century - The benefit of modelled ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junk, J.; Feister, U.; Rozanov, E.; Krzyścin, J. W.

    2013-05-01

    Solar erythemal UV radiation (UVER) is highly relevant for numerous biological processes that affect plants, animals, and human health. Nevertheless, long-term UVER records are scarce. As significant declines in the column ozone concentration were observed in the past and a recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer is anticipated by the middle of the 21st century, there is a strong interest in the temporal variation of UVER time series. Therefore, we combined groundbased measurements of different meteorological variables with modeled ozone data sets to reconstruct time series of daily totals of UVER at the Meteorological Observatory Potsdam, Germany. Artificial neural networks were trained with measured UVER, sunshine duration, the day of year, measured and modeled total column ozone, as well as the minimum solar zenith angle. This allows for the reconstruction of daily totals of UVER for the period from 1901 to 1999. Additionally, analyses of the long-term variations from 1901 until 1999 of the reconstructed, new UVER data set are presented. The time series of monthly and annual totals of UVER provide a long-term meteorological basis for epidemiological investigations in human health and occupational medicine for the region of Potsdam and Berlin. A strong benefit of our ANN-approach is the fact that it can be easily adapted to different geographical locations, as successfully tested in the framework of the COSTAction 726.

  10. Ecological Interventionist Causal Models in Psychosis: Targeting Psychological Mechanisms in Daily Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reininghaus, Ulrich; Depp, Colin A; Myin-Germeys, Inez

    2016-03-01

    Integrated models of psychotic disorders have posited a number of putative psychological mechanisms that may contribute to the development of psychotic symptoms, but it is only recently that a modest amount of experience sampling research has provided evidence on their role in daily life, outside the research laboratory. A number of methodological challenges remain in evaluating specificity of potential causal links between a given psychological mechanism and psychosis outcomes in a systematic fashion, capitalizing on longitudinal data to investigate temporal ordering. In this article, we argue for testing ecological interventionist causal models that draw on real world and real-time delivered, ecological momentary interventions for generating evidence on several causal criteria (association, time order, and direction/sole plausibility) under real-world conditions, while maximizing generalizability to social contexts and experiences in heterogeneous populations. Specifically, this approach tests whether ecological momentary interventions can (1) modify a putative mechanism and (2) produce changes in the mechanism that lead to sustainable changes in intended psychosis outcomes in individuals' daily lives. Future research using this approach will provide translational evidence on the active ingredients of mobile health and in-person interventions that promote sustained effectiveness of ecological momentary interventions and, thereby, contribute to ongoing efforts that seek to enhance effectiveness of psychological interventions under real-world conditions. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Ecological Interventionist Causal Models in Psychosis: Targeting Psychological Mechanisms in Daily Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reininghaus, Ulrich; Depp, Colin A.; Myin-Germeys, Inez

    2016-01-01

    Integrated models of psychotic disorders have posited a number of putative psychological mechanisms that may contribute to the development of psychotic symptoms, but it is only recently that a modest amount of experience sampling research has provided evidence on their role in daily life, outside the research laboratory. A number of methodological challenges remain in evaluating specificity of potential causal links between a given psychological mechanism and psychosis outcomes in a systematic fashion, capitalizing on longitudinal data to investigate temporal ordering. In this article, we argue for testing ecological interventionist causal models that draw on real world and real-time delivered, ecological momentary interventions for generating evidence on several causal criteria (association, time order, and direction/sole plausibility) under real-world conditions, while maximizing generalizability to social contexts and experiences in heterogeneous populations. Specifically, this approach tests whether ecological momentary interventions can (1) modify a putative mechanism and (2) produce changes in the mechanism that lead to sustainable changes in intended psychosis outcomes in individuals’ daily lives. Future research using this approach will provide translational evidence on the active ingredients of mobile health and in-person interventions that promote sustained effectiveness of ecological momentary interventions and, thereby, contribute to ongoing efforts that seek to enhance effectiveness of psychological interventions under real-world conditions. PMID:26707864

  12. Association of sarcopenia with swallowing problems, related to nutrition and activities of daily living of elderly individuals

    OpenAIRE

    Shiozu, Hiroyasu; Higashijima, Misako; Koga, Tomoshige

    2015-01-01

    [Purpose] The purpose of the current study was to clarify problems associated with swallowing, related to nutrition and activities of daily living (ADL), in elderly individuals with sarcopenia. [Subjects and Methods] Seventy-seven subjects were assigned to a sarcopenia or a non-sarcopenia group according to a definition used by the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People. Analyses were conducted including and excluding subjects with a central nervous system disorders in order to ...

  13. Environmental physiology: effects of energy-related pollutants on daily cycles of energy metabolism, motor activity, and thermoregulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sacher, G.A.; Rosenberg, R.S.; Duffy, P.H.; Obermeyer, W.; Russell, J.J.

    1979-01-01

    This section contains a summary of research on the effects of energy-related pollutants on daily cycles of energy metabolism, motor activity, and thermoregulation. So far, mice have been exposed to fast neutron-gamma radiation or to the chemical effluents of an atmospheric pressure experimental fluidized-bed combustor. The physiological parameters measured included: O 2 consumption; CO 2 production; motor activity; and deep body temperatures

  14. Genetic Analysis of Daily Maximum Milking Speed by a Random Walk Model in Dairy Cows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karacaören, Burak; Janss, Luc; Kadarmideen, Haja

    Data were obtained from dairy cows stationed at research farm ETH Zurich for maximum milking speed. The main aims of this paper are a) to evaluate if the Wood curve is suitable to model mean lactation curve b) to predict longitudinal breeding values by random regression and random walk models of ...... filter applications: random walk model could give online prediction of breeding values. Hence without waiting for whole lactation records, genetic evaluation could be made when the daily or monthly data is available......Data were obtained from dairy cows stationed at research farm ETH Zurich for maximum milking speed. The main aims of this paper are a) to evaluate if the Wood curve is suitable to model mean lactation curve b) to predict longitudinal breeding values by random regression and random walk models...... of maximum milking speed. Wood curve did not provide a good fit to the data set. Quadratic random regressions gave better predictions compared with the random walk model. However random walk model does not need to be evaluated for different orders of regression coefficients. In addition with the Kalman...

  15. Autoregressive spatially varying coefficients model for predicting daily PM2.5 using VIIRS satellite AOT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schliep, E. M.; Gelfand, A. E.; Holland, D. M.

    2015-12-01

    There is considerable demand for accurate air quality information in human health analyses. The sparsity of ground monitoring stations across the United States motivates the need for advanced statistical models to predict air quality metrics, such as PM2.5, at unobserved sites. Remote sensing technologies have the potential to expand our knowledge of PM2.5 spatial patterns beyond what we can predict from current PM2.5 monitoring networks. Data from satellites have an additional advantage in not requiring extensive emission inventories necessary for most atmospheric models that have been used in earlier data fusion models for air pollution. Statistical models combining monitoring station data with satellite-obtained aerosol optical thickness (AOT), also referred to as aerosol optical depth (AOD), have been proposed in the literature with varying levels of success in predicting PM2.5. The benefit of using AOT is that satellites provide complete gridded spatial coverage. However, the challenges involved with using it in fusion models are (1) the correlation between the two data sources varies both in time and in space, (2) the data sources are temporally and spatially misaligned, and (3) there is extensive missingness in the monitoring data and also in the satellite data due to cloud cover. We propose a hierarchical autoregressive spatially varying coefficients model to jointly model the two data sources, which addresses the foregoing challenges. Additionally, we offer formal model comparison for competing models in terms of model fit and out of sample prediction of PM2.5. The models are applied to daily observations of PM2.5 and AOT in the summer months of 2013 across the conterminous United States. Most notably, during this time period, we find small in-sample improvement incorporating AOT into our autoregressive model but little out-of-sample predictive improvement.

  16. Daily river flow prediction based on Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy Systems Modeling: A case of hydrological - meteorological measurements asymmetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bou-Fakhreddine, Bassam; Mougharbel, Imad; Faye, Alain; Abou Chakra, Sara; Pollet, Yann

    2018-03-01

    Accurate daily river flow forecast is essential in many applications of water resources such as hydropower operation, agricultural planning and flood control. This paper presents a forecasting approach to deal with a newly addressed situation where hydrological data exist for a period longer than that of meteorological data (measurements asymmetry). In fact, one of the potential solutions to resolve measurements asymmetry issue is data re-sampling. It is a matter of either considering only the hydrological data or the balanced part of the hydro-meteorological data set during the forecasting process. However, the main disadvantage is that we may lose potentially relevant information from the left-out data. In this research, the key output is a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy inference hybrid model that is implemented over the non re-sampled data. The introduced modeling approach must be capable of exploiting the available data efficiently with higher prediction efficiency relative to Constructive Fuzzy model trained over re-sampled data set. The study was applied to Litani River in the Bekaa Valley - Lebanon by using 4 years of rainfall and 24 years of river flow daily measurements. A Constructive Fuzzy System Model (C-FSM) and a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy System Model (TPC-FSM) are trained. Upon validating, the second model has shown a primarily competitive performance and accuracy with the ability to preserve a higher day-to-day variability for 1, 3 and 6 days ahead. In fact, for the longest lead period, the C-FSM and TPC-FSM were able of explaining respectively 84.6% and 86.5% of the actual river flow variation. Overall, the results indicate that TPC-FSM model has provided a better tool to capture extreme flows in the process of streamflow prediction.

  17. A low free-parameter stochastic model of daily Forbush decrease indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patra, Sankar Narayan; Bhattacharya, Gautam; Panja, Subhash Chandra; Ghosh, Koushik

    2014-01-01

    Forbush decrease is a rapid decrease in the observed galactic cosmic ray intensity pattern occurring after a coronal mass ejection. In the present paper we have analyzed the daily Forbush decrease indices from January, 1967 to December, 2003 generated in IZMIRAN, Russia. First the entire indices have been smoothened and next we have made an attempt to fit a suitable stochastic model for the present time series by means of a necessary number of process parameters. The study reveals that the present time series is governed by a stationary autoregressive process of order 2 with a trace of white noise. Under the consideration of the present model we have shown that chaos is not expected in the present time series which opens up the possibility of validation of its forecasting (both short-term and long-term) as well as its multi-periodic behavior.

  18. Improving probabilistic prediction of daily streamflow by identifying Pareto optimal approaches for modelling heteroscedastic residual errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, McInerney; Mark, Thyer; Dmitri, Kavetski; George, Kuczera

    2017-04-01

    This study provides guidance to hydrological researchers which enables them to provide probabilistic predictions of daily streamflow with the best reliability and precision for different catchment types (e.g. high/low degree of ephemerality). Reliable and precise probabilistic prediction of daily catchment-scale streamflow requires statistical characterization of residual errors of hydrological models. It is commonly known that hydrological model residual errors are heteroscedastic, i.e. there is a pattern of larger errors in higher streamflow predictions. Although multiple approaches exist for representing this heteroscedasticity, few studies have undertaken a comprehensive evaluation and comparison of these approaches. This study fills this research gap by evaluating 8 common residual error schemes, including standard and weighted least squares, the Box-Cox transformation (with fixed and calibrated power parameter, lambda) and the log-sinh transformation. Case studies include 17 perennial and 6 ephemeral catchments in Australia and USA, and two lumped hydrological models. We find the choice of heteroscedastic error modelling approach significantly impacts on predictive performance, though no single scheme simultaneously optimizes all performance metrics. The set of Pareto optimal schemes, reflecting performance trade-offs, comprises Box-Cox schemes with lambda of 0.2 and 0.5, and the log scheme (lambda=0, perennial catchments only). These schemes significantly outperform even the average-performing remaining schemes (e.g., across ephemeral catchments, median precision tightens from 105% to 40% of observed streamflow, and median biases decrease from 25% to 4%). Theoretical interpretations of empirical results highlight the importance of capturing the skew/kurtosis of raw residuals and reproducing zero flows. Recommendations for researchers and practitioners seeking robust residual error schemes for practical work are provided.

  19. Adolescents' Attitudes on Smoking Are Related to Experimentation with Smoking, Daily Smoking and Best Friends' Smoking in Two Karelias in Finland and in Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aura, Annamari; Laatikainen, Tiina; Isoaho, Hannu; Lazutkina, Galina; Tossavainen, Kerttu

    2016-12-01

    Becoming a smoker usually starts during adolescence and is a dynamic process involving experimentation before the establishment of daily smoking. It has been suggested that adolescents who smoke differ from those who do not in their attitudes to smoking. The purpose of this study was to find out whether attitudes related to smoking legislation and restrictions, social pressures in smoking and image of smokers are associated with smoking experimentation, daily smoking and best friends' smoking. The data were gathered with a self-administered questionnaire in North Karelia, Eastern Finland and in the Pitkyaranta district, Republic of Karelia, Russia. The respondents were 15-year-old 9th grade pupils in local schools. In Pitkyaranta, the data analyses covered pupils in all eight schools in the area (n = 179). In North Karelia, the data analyses comprised of selected eight schools (n = 601). Data were analysed with exploratory factor analysis. The models revealed that attitudes related to restrictions and social pressure were significantly associated with experimenting with smoking [OR (95 % CI) 7.923 (5.787-10.847)], daily smoking [OR (95 % CI) 9.575 (6.727-13.628)] and the likelihood of best friends' smoking [OR (95 % CI) 3.154 (2.579-3.858)]. The stronger the young peoples' attitudes and opinions, for example, towards restrictions and with more difficulties in refusing smoking, the higher the likelihood for smoking experimentations, daily smoking as well as the likelihood for their best friends' smoking. The country and factor interactions were not associated with smoking experimentations, daily smoking or best friends' smoking. Regardless of cultural background, adolescents who smoke have more positive attitudes to smoking, and perceive more social support for smoking, than do adolescents who do not smoke. The study stresses the similarity of the results in both Karelia's despite the enormous differences in culture, economy and public policy.

  20. Contextual factors related to physical activity during daily middle school physical education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brusseau, Timothy A; Burns, Ryan D; Fu, You

    2016-09-01

    Given the importance of optimizing physical activity in adolescents, the purpose of this study was to examine the effect of activity mode, environment, and semester on step counts/minute and MVPA during daily middle-school physical education (PE). A prospective and observational research design. Participants included 232 students (Mean age=13.3±0.4 years) recruited from the seventh and eighth grades from one public middle-school in the U.S. Activity modes were employed across the school year including motor skills, games, and fitness activities located in indoor and outdoor environments. Step counts/minute and MVPA were monitored across 132 PE lessons during Fall and Spring semesters using NL-1000 piezoelectric pedometers. A three-way Multivariate Analysis of Covariance (MANCOVA) was employed to examine the effect of activity mode (skill games vs. fitness), environment (indoors vs. outdoors), and semester (Fall vs. Spring) on student step counts/minute and MVPA. MANCOVA was followed by separate ANCOVA tests. MANCOVA yielded a statistically significant three-way interaction (Wilks' Λ=0.98 F(2, 1153)=8.9, PDaily middle-school physical activity was the highest during outdoor fitness activities in the Fall and the lowest during indoor motor skill games in the Spring. Copyright © 2015 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Modelling daily dissolved oxygen concentration using least square support vector machine, multivariate adaptive regression splines and M5 model tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heddam, Salim; Kisi, Ozgur

    2018-04-01

    In the present study, three types of artificial intelligence techniques, least square support vector machine (LSSVM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and M5 model tree (M5T) are applied for modeling daily dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration using several water quality variables as inputs. The DO concentration and water quality variables data from three stations operated by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) were used for developing the three models. The water quality data selected consisted of daily measured of water temperature (TE, °C), pH (std. unit), specific conductance (SC, μS/cm) and discharge (DI cfs), are used as inputs to the LSSVM, MARS and M5T models. The three models were applied for each station separately and compared to each other. According to the results obtained, it was found that: (i) the DO concentration could be successfully estimated using the three models and (ii) the best model among all others differs from one station to another.

  2. A Pareto-optimal moving average multigene genetic programming model for daily streamflow prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Kahya, Ercan

    2017-06-01

    Genetic programming (GP) is able to systematically explore alternative model structures of different accuracy and complexity from observed input and output data. The effectiveness of GP in hydrological system identification has been recognized in recent studies. However, selecting a parsimonious (accurate and simple) model from such alternatives still remains a question. This paper proposes a Pareto-optimal moving average multigene genetic programming (MA-MGGP) approach to develop a parsimonious model for single-station streamflow prediction. The three main components of the approach that take us from observed data to a validated model are: (1) data pre-processing, (2) system identification and (3) system simplification. The data pre-processing ingredient uses a simple moving average filter to diminish the lagged prediction effect of stand-alone data-driven models. The multigene ingredient of the model tends to identify the underlying nonlinear system with expressions simpler than classical monolithic GP and, eventually simplification component exploits Pareto front plot to select a parsimonious model through an interactive complexity-efficiency trade-off. The approach was tested using the daily streamflow records from a station on Senoz Stream, Turkey. Comparing to the efficiency results of stand-alone GP, MGGP, and conventional multi linear regression prediction models as benchmarks, the proposed Pareto-optimal MA-MGGP model put forward a parsimonious solution, which has a noteworthy importance of being applied in practice. In addition, the approach allows the user to enter human insight into the problem to examine evolved models and pick the best performing programs out for further analysis.

  3. Daily life activity routine discovery in hemiparetic rehabilitation patients using topic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiter, J; Derungs, A; Schuster-Amft, C; Amft, O; Tröster, G

    2015-01-01

    Monitoring natural behavior and activity routines of hemiparetic rehabilitation patients across the day can provide valuable progress information for therapists and patients and contribute to an optimized rehabilitation process. In particular, continuous patient monitoring could add type, frequency and duration of daily life activity routines and hence complement standard clinical scores that are assessed for particular tasks only. Machine learning methods have been applied to infer activity routines from sensor data. However, supervised methods require activity annotations to build recognition models and thus require extensive patient supervision. Discovery methods, including topic models could provide patient routine information and deal with variability in activity and movement performance across patients. Topic models have been used to discover characteristic activity routine patterns of healthy individuals using activity primitives recognized from supervised sensor data. Yet, the applicability of topic models for hemiparetic rehabilitation patients and techniques to derive activity primitives without supervision needs to be addressed. We investigate, 1) whether a topic model-based activity routine discovery framework can infer activity routines of rehabilitation patients from wearable motion sensor data. 2) We compare the performance of our topic model-based activity routine discovery using rule-based and clustering-based activity vocabulary. We analyze the activity routine discovery in a dataset recorded with 11 hemiparetic rehabilitation patients during up to ten full recording days per individual in an ambulatory daycare rehabilitation center using wearable motion sensors attached to both wrists and the non-affected thigh. We introduce and compare rule-based and clustering-based activity vocabulary to process statistical and frequency acceleration features to activity words. Activity words were used for activity routine pattern discovery using topic models

  4. Multisite stochastic simulation of daily precipitation from copula modeling with a gamma marginal distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Taesam

    2018-05-01

    Multisite stochastic simulations of daily precipitation have been widely employed in hydrologic analyses for climate change assessment and agricultural model inputs. Recently, a copula model with a gamma marginal distribution has become one of the common approaches for simulating precipitation at multiple sites. Here, we tested the correlation structure of the copula modeling. The results indicate that there is a significant underestimation of the correlation in the simulated data compared to the observed data. Therefore, we proposed an indirect method for estimating the cross-correlations when simulating precipitation at multiple stations. We used the full relationship between the correlation of the observed data and the normally transformed data. Although this indirect method offers certain improvements in preserving the cross-correlations between sites in the original domain, the method was not reliable in application. Therefore, we further improved a simulation-based method (SBM) that was developed to model the multisite precipitation occurrence. The SBM preserved well the cross-correlations of the original domain. The SBM method provides around 0.2 better cross-correlation than the direct method and around 0.1 degree better than the indirect method. The three models were applied to the stations in the Nakdong River basin, and the SBM was the best alternative for reproducing the historical cross-correlation. The direct method significantly underestimates the correlations among the observed data, and the indirect method appeared to be unreliable.

  5. Development and evaluation of a stochastic daily rainfall model with long-term variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal Chowdhury, A. F. M.; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George; Kiem, Anthony S.; Parana Manage, Nadeeka

    2017-12-01

    The primary objective of this study is to develop a stochastic rainfall generation model that can match not only the short resolution (daily) variability but also the longer resolution (monthly to multiyear) variability of observed rainfall. This study has developed a Markov chain (MC) model, which uses a two-state MC process with two parameters (wet-to-wet and dry-to-dry transition probabilities) to simulate rainfall occurrence and a gamma distribution with two parameters (mean and standard deviation of wet day rainfall) to simulate wet day rainfall depths. Starting with the traditional MC-gamma model with deterministic parameters, this study has developed and assessed four other variants of the MC-gamma model with different parameterisations. The key finding is that if the parameters of the gamma distribution are randomly sampled each year from fitted distributions rather than fixed parameters with time, the variability of rainfall depths at both short and longer temporal resolutions can be preserved, while the variability of wet periods (i.e. number of wet days and mean length of wet spell) can be preserved by decadally varied MC parameters. This is a straightforward enhancement to the traditional simplest MC model and is both objective and parsimonious.

  6. A long range dependent model with nonlinear innovations for simulating daily river flows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Elek

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available We present the analysis aimed at the estimation of flood risks of Tisza River in Hungary on the basis of daily river discharge data registered in the last 100 years. The deseasonalised series has skewed and leptokurtic distribution and various methods suggest that it possesses substantial long memory. This motivates the attempt to fit a fractional ARIMA model with non-Gaussian innovations as a first step. Synthetic streamflow series can then be generated from the bootstrapped innovations. However, there remains a significant difference between the empirical and the synthetic density functions as well as the quantiles. This brings attention to the fact that the innovations are not independent, both their squares and absolute values are autocorrelated. Furthermore, the innovations display non-seasonal periods of high and low variances. This behaviour is characteristic to generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH models. However, when innovations are simulated as GARCH processes, the quantiles and extremes of the discharge series are heavily overestimated. Therefore we suggest to fit a smooth transition GARCH-process to the innovations. In a standard GARCH model the dependence of the variance on the lagged innovation is quadratic whereas in our proposed model it is a bounded function. While preserving long memory and eliminating the correlation from both the generating noise and from its square, the new model is superior to the previously mentioned ones in approximating the probability density, the high quantiles and the extremal behaviour of the empirical river flows.

  7. Improved daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, J W; Lynch, J A

    2005-06-01

    Daily precipitation nitrate and ammonium concentration models were developed for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (USA) using a linear least-squares regression approach and precipitation chemistry data from 29 National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) sites. Only weekly samples that comprised a single precipitation event were used in model development. The most significant variables in both ammonium and nitrate models included: precipitation volume, the number of days since the last event, a measure of seasonality, latitude, and the proportion of land within 8km covered by forest or devoted to industry and transportation. Additional variables included in the nitrate model were the proportion of land within 0.8km covered by water and/or forest. Local and regional ammonia and nitrogen oxide emissions were not as well correlated as land cover. Modeled concentrations compared very well with event chemistry data collected at six NADP/AirMoN sites within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Wet deposition estimates were also consistent with observed deposition at selected sites. Accurately describing the spatial distribution of precipitation volume throughout the watershed is important in providing critical estimates of wet-fall deposition of ammonium and nitrate.

  8. Daily rainfall-runoff modelling by neural networks in semi-arid zone ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This research work will allow checking efficiency of formal neural networks for flows' modelling of wadi Ouahrane's basin from rainfall-runoff relation which is non-linear. Two models of neural networks were optimized through supervised learning and compared in order to achieve this goal, the first model with input rain, and ...

  9. Cognitive benefits of last night's sleep: daily variations in children's sleep behavior are related to working memory fluctuations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Könen, Tanja; Dirk, Judith; Schmiedek, Florian

    2015-02-01

    Recent studies have suggested substantial fluctuations of cognitive performance in adults both across and within days, but very little is known about such fluctuations in children. Children's sleep behavior might have an important influence on their daily cognitive resources, but so far this has not been investigated in terms of naturally occurring within-person variations in children's everyday lives. In an ambulatory assessment study, 110 elementary school children (8-11 years old) completed sleep items and working memory tasks on smartphones several times per day in school and at home for 4 weeks. Parents provided general information about the children and their sleep habits. We identified substantial fluctuations in the children's daily cognitive performance, self-reported nightly sleep quality, time in bed, and daytime tiredness. All three facets were predictive of performance fluctuations in children's school and daily life. Sleep quality and time in bed were predictive of performance in the morning, and afternoon performance was related to current tiredness. The children with a lower average performance level showed a higher within-person coupling between morning performance and sleep quality. Our findings contribute important insights regarding a potential source of performance fluctuations in children. The effect of varying cognitive resources should be investigated further because it might impact children's daily social, emotional, and learning-related functioning. Theories about children's cognitive and educational development should consider fluctuations on micro-longitudinal scales (e.g., day-to-day) to identify possible mechanisms behind long-term changes. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  10. Online press: The relations between the content in print and online editions of daily newspapers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bajić Predrag

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to observe the connection between the same content in the print editions of daily newspapers in Serbia and on their web portals, i.e. the changes that occur in the digital world as compared to the 'static' content that can be seen on paper (text and photos. In the digital era, the newspapers is struggling to retain considerable influence and manages to do so through synchronization, promotion and transfer of media contents from one platform to another. At present, we see the attempts to maintain exclusivity of content in newspapers, as much as possible, just by promoting it on a web portal (through a single photograph or some previews of the whole text. They serve as 'bait' in an effort to increase interest for buying the newspapers. Also, unlike the situation with the print, the placement of the same contents on portals can be enriched by adding multimedia elements. There we encounter a 'paradox', i.e. the fact that on the internet, where space is practically unlimited, we have a shortening of the textual parts due to the explications that can be obtained through multimedia contents and links. On the other hand, that is impossible in the case of print, where a longer text is required, although there are clear spatial limitations. No matter the advantages of multimedia enrichments, there we also find a distinctive 'trap', in terms that there is a possibility that the content disappears. With print, where we do not have 'half-finished' product and the contents cannot change once printed, there is no such risk. Further, the digital age gave the print media a possibility to generate, transmit and distribute exclusive audio-visual content.

  11. 35 years of Ambient Noise: Can We Evidence Daily to Climatic Relative Velocity Changes ?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lecocq, T.; Pedersen, H.; Brenguier, F.; Stammler, K.

    2014-12-01

    The broadband Grafenberg array (Germany) has been installed in 1976 and, thanks to visionary scientists and network maintainers, the continuous data acquired has been preserved until today. Using state of the art pre-processing and cross-correlation techniques, we are able to extract cross-correlation functions (CCF) between sensor pairs. It has been shown recently that, provided enough computation power is available, there is no need to define a reference CCF to compare all days to. Indeed, one can compare each day to all days, computing the "all-doublet". The number of calculations becomes huge (N vs ref = N calculations, N vs N= N*N), but the result, once inverted, is way more stable because of the N observations per day. This analysis has been done on a parallelized version of MSNoise (http://msnoise.org), running on the VEGA cluster hosted at the Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB, Belgium). Here, we present preliminary results of the analysis of two stations, GRA1 and GRA2, the first two stations installed in March 1976. The interferogram (observation of the CCF through time, see Figure) already shows interesting features in the ballistic wave shape, highly correlated to the seasons. A reasonably high correlation can still be seen outside the ballistic arrival, after +-5 second lag time. The lag times between 5 and 25 seconds are then used to compute the dv/v using the all-doublet method. We expect to evidence daily to seasonal, or even to longer period dv/v variations and/or noise source position changes using this method. Once done with 1 sensor pair, the full data of the Grafenberg array will be used to enhance the resolution even more.

  12. Potential future changes in the characteristics of daily precipitation in Europe simulated by the HIRHAM regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    May, Wilhelm [Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2008-05-15

    In this study the potential future changes in various aspects of daily precipitation events over Europe as a consequence of the anticipated future increase in the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are investigated. This is done by comparing two 3-member ensembles of simulations with the HIRHAM regional climate model for the period 1961-1990 and 2071-2100, respectively. Daily precipitation events are characterized by their frequency and intensity, and heavy precipitation events are described via 30-year return levels of daily precipitation. Further, extended periods with and without rainfall (wet and dry spells) are studied, considering their frequency and length as well as the average and extreme amounts of precipitation accumulated during wet spells, the latter again described via 30-year return levels. The simulations show marked changes in the characteristics of daily precipitation in Europe due to the anticipated greenhouse warming. In winter, for instance, the frequency of wet days is enhanced over most of the European continent except for the region on the Norwegian west coast and the Mediterranean region. The changes in the intensity and the 30-year return level of daily precipitation are characterized by a similar pattern except for central Europe with a tendency of decreased 30-year return levels and increased precipitation intensity. In summer, on the other hand, the frequency of wet days is decreased over most of Europe except for northern Scandinavia and the Baltic Sea region. In contrast, the precipitation intensity and the 30-year return level of daily precipitation are increased over entire Scandinavia, central and eastern Europe. The changes in the 30-year return level of daily precipitation are generally stronger than the corresponding changes in the precipitation intensity but can have opposite signs in some regions. Also the distribution of wet days is changed in the future. During summer, for instance, both the frequency and the length

  13. A comparison of daily evaporation downscaled using WRFDA model and GLEAM dataset over the Iberian Peninsula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    José González-Rojí, Santos; Sáenz, Jon; Ibarra-Berastegi, Gabriel

    2017-04-01

    GLEAM dataset was presented a few years ago and since that moment, it has just been used for validation of evaporation in a few places of the world (Australia and Africa). The Iberian Peninsula is composed of different soil types and it is affected by different weather regimes, with different climate regions. It is this feature which makes it a very interesting zone for the study of the meteorological cycle, including evaporation. For that purpose, a numerical downscaling exercise over the Iberian Peninsula was run nesting the WRF model inside ERA Interim. Two model configurations were tested in two experiments spanning the period 2010-2014 after a one-year spin-up (2009). In the first experiment (N), boundary conditions drive the model. The second experiment (D) is configured the same way as the N case, but 3DVAR data assimilation is run every six hours (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) using observations obtained from the PREPBUFR dataset. For both N and D runs and ERA Interim, the evaporation of the model runs was compared to GLEAM v3.0b and v3.0c datasets over the Iberian Peninsula, both at the daily and monthly time scales. GLEAM v3.0a was not used for validation as it uses for forcing radiation and air temperature data from ERA Interim. Results show that the experiment with data assimilation (D) improve the results obtained for N experiment. Moreover, correlations values are comparable to the ones obtained with ERA Interim. However, some negative correlation values are observed at Portuguese and Mediterranean coasts for both WRF runs. All of these problematic points are considered as urban sites by the NOAH land surface model. Because of that, the model is not able to simulate a correct evaporation value. Even with these discrepancies, better results than for ERA Interim are observed for seasonal Biases and daily RMSEs over Iberian Peninsula, obtaining the best values inland. Minimal differences are observed for the two GLEAM datasets selected.

  14. Bias correction in the realized stochastic volatility model for daily volatility on the Tokyo Stock Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2018-06-01

    The realized stochastic volatility model has been introduced to estimate more accurate volatility by using both daily returns and realized volatility. The main advantage of the model is that no special bias-correction factor for the realized volatility is required a priori. Instead, the model introduces a bias-correction parameter responsible for the bias hidden in realized volatility. We empirically investigate the bias-correction parameter for realized volatilities calculated at various sampling frequencies for six stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and then show that the dynamic behavior of the bias-correction parameter as a function of sampling frequency is qualitatively similar to that of the Hansen-Lunde bias-correction factor although their values are substantially different. Under the stochastic diffusion assumption of the return dynamics, we investigate the accuracy of estimated volatilities by examining the standardized returns. We find that while the moments of the standardized returns from low-frequency realized volatilities are consistent with the expectation from the Gaussian variables, the deviation from the expectation becomes considerably large at high frequencies. This indicates that the realized stochastic volatility model itself cannot completely remove bias at high frequencies.

  15. Temperature based daily incoming solar radiation modeling based on gene expression programming, neuro-fuzzy and neural network computing techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landeras, G.; López, J. J.; Kisi, O.; Shiri, J.

    2012-04-01

    The correct observation/estimation of surface incoming solar radiation (RS) is very important for many agricultural, meteorological and hydrological related applications. While most weather stations are provided with sensors for air temperature detection, the presence of sensors necessary for the detection of solar radiation is not so habitual and the data quality provided by them is sometimes poor. In these cases it is necessary to estimate this variable. Temperature based modeling procedures are reported in this study for estimating daily incoming solar radiation by using Gene Expression Programming (GEP) for the first time, and other artificial intelligence models such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Traditional temperature based solar radiation equations were also included in this study and compared with artificial intelligence based approaches. Root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) RMSE-based skill score (SSRMSE), MAE-based skill score (SSMAE) and r2 criterion of Nash and Sutcliffe criteria were used to assess the models' performances. An ANN (a four-input multilayer perceptron with ten neurons in the hidden layer) presented the best performance among the studied models (2.93 MJ m-2 d-1 of RMSE). A four-input ANFIS model revealed as an interesting alternative to ANNs (3.14 MJ m-2 d-1 of RMSE). Very limited number of studies has been done on estimation of solar radiation based on ANFIS, and the present one demonstrated the ability of ANFIS to model solar radiation based on temperatures and extraterrestrial radiation. By the way this study demonstrated, for the first time, the ability of GEP models to model solar radiation based on daily atmospheric variables. Despite the accuracy of GEP models was slightly lower than the ANFIS and ANN models the genetic programming models (i.e., GEP) are superior to other artificial intelligence models in giving a simple explicit equation for the

  16. Probabilistic daily ILI syndromic surveillance with a spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ta-Chien Chan

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: For daily syndromic surveillance to be effective, an efficient and sensible algorithm would be expected to detect aberrations in influenza illness, and alert public health workers prior to any impending epidemic. This detection or alert surely contains uncertainty, and thus should be evaluated with a proper probabilistic measure. However, traditional monitoring mechanisms simply provide a binary alert, failing to adequately address this uncertainty. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Based on the Bayesian posterior probability of influenza-like illness (ILI visits, the intensity of outbreak can be directly assessed. The numbers of daily emergency room ILI visits at five community hospitals in Taipei City during 2006-2007 were collected and fitted with a Bayesian hierarchical model containing meteorological factors such as temperature and vapor pressure, spatial interaction with conditional autoregressive structure, weekend and holiday effects, seasonality factors, and previous ILI visits. The proposed algorithm recommends an alert for action if the posterior probability is larger than 70%. External data from January to February of 2008 were retained for validation. The decision rule detects successfully the peak in the validation period. When comparing the posterior probability evaluation with the modified Cusum method, results show that the proposed method is able to detect the signals 1-2 days prior to the rise of ILI visits. CONCLUSIONS: This Bayesian hierarchical model not only constitutes a dynamic surveillance system but also constructs a stochastic evaluation of the need to call for alert. The monitoring mechanism provides earlier detection as well as a complementary tool for current surveillance programs.

  17. Perceived motor problems in daily life: Focus group interviews with people with Noonan syndrome and their relatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croonen, Ellen A; Harmsen, Mirjam; Van der Burgt, Ineke; Draaisma, Jos M; Noordam, Kees; Essink, Marlou; Nijhuis-van der Sanden, Maria W G

    2016-09-01

    Studies from a patient perspective on motor performance problems in Noonan syndrome in daily life are lacking. The aims of this study were to provide insight into the motor performance problems that people with Noonan syndrome and/or their relatives experienced, the major consequences they suffered, the benefits of interventions they experienced, and the experiences with healthcare professionals they mentioned. We interviewed 10 adults with Noonan syndrome (two were joined by their parent), and 23 mothers (five of whom had Noonan syndrome), nine fathers (one of whom had Noonan syndrome) and one cousin who reported on 28 children with Noonan syndrome. People with Noonan syndrome reported particular problems related to pain, decreased muscle strength, fatigue, and clumsiness, which had an evident impact on functioning in daily life. Most participants believed that problems with motor performance improved with exercise, appropriate physiotherapy guidance, and other supportive interventions. Nevertheless, people with Noonan syndrome and/or their relatives did not feel heard and supported and experienced no understanding of their problems by healthcare professionals. This was the first study from a patient perspective that described the motor performance problems in people with Noonan syndrome, the major consequences in daily life, the positive experiences of interventions and the miscommunication with healthcare professionals. To achieve optimal support, healthcare professionals, as well as people with Noonan syndrome and/or their relatives themselves, should be aware of these frequently presented problems with motor performance. Research on these different aspects is needed to better understand and support people with Noonan syndrome.© 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. BIOMAP A Daily Time Step, Mechanistic Model for the Study of Ecosystem Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, J. R.; Neilson, R. P.; Drapek, R. J.; Pitts, B. S.

    2010-12-01

    BIOMAP simulates competition between two Plant Functional Types (PFT) at any given point in the conterminous U.S. using a time series of daily temperature (mean, minimum, maximum), precipitation, humidity, light and nutrients, with PFT-specific rooting within a multi-layer soil. The model employs a 2-layer canopy biophysics, Farquhar photosynthesis, the Beer-Lambert Law for light attenuation and a mechanistic soil hydrology. In essence, BIOMAP is a re-built version of the biogeochemistry model, BIOME-BGC, into the form of the MAPSS biogeography model. Specific enhancements are: 1) the 2-layer canopy biophysics of Dolman (1993); 2) the unique MAPSS-based hydrology, which incorporates canopy evaporation, snow dynamics, infiltration and saturated and unsaturated percolation with ‘fast’ flow and base flow and a ‘tunable aquifer’ capacity, a metaphor of D’Arcy’s Law; and, 3) a unique MAPSS-based stomatal conductance algorithm, which simultaneously incorporates vapor pressure and soil water potential constraints, based on physiological information and many other improvements. Over small domains the PFTs can be parameterized as individual species to investigate fundamental vs. potential niche theory; while, at more coarse scales the PFTs can be rendered as more general functional groups. Since all of the model processes are intrinsically leaf to plot scale (physiology to PFT competition), it essentially has no ‘intrinsic’ scale and can be implemented on a grid of any size, taking on the characteristics defined by the homogeneous climate of each grid cell. Currently, the model is implemented on the VEMAP 1/2 degree, daily grid over the conterminous U.S. Although both the thermal and water-limited ecotones are dynamic, following climate variability, the PFT distributions remain fixed. Thus, the model is currently being fitted with a ‘reproduction niche’ to allow full dynamic operation as a Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM). While global simulations

  19. Daily goal progress is facilitated by spousal support and promotes psychological, physical, and relational well-being throughout adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakubiak, Brittany K.; Feeney, Brooke C.

    2016-01-01

    In two daily-diary studies, we tested the consequences and precursors of daily goal progress throughout the adult lifespan. Attachment theory posits that exploration—including the pursuit of autonomous goals—promotes well-being across the lifespan and is facilitated by support from close others. For both young-adult newlyweds (Study 1) and married couples in late adulthood (Study 2), daily independent goal progress predicted same-day and next-day improvements in psychological, physical, and relational well-being. Specifically, when participants made more progress on their goals than usual on one day, they reported increases in positive affect, sleep quality, and relationship quality, and decreased physical symptoms, the following day (as well as concurrently). Additionally, spousal support (i.e., availability, encouragement, and noninterference) enabled same-day and next-day goal progress. Mediational analyses showed indirect links between spousal support and well-being through goal progress. Some effects were moderated by attachment orientation in the newlywed sample; individuals with greater insecure attachment benefited most from goal progress, and spousal support enabled goal progress most strongly for individuals with less anxious attachment. Overall, these results support and extend attachment theoretical propositions regarding the importance of the exploration system across the adult lifespan. They contribute to existing literature by demonstrating wide-ranging consequences of successful exploration for well-being and by providing evidence for the importance of both exploration and support for exploration into late adulthood. PMID:27560610

  20. Using synthetic data to evaluate multiple regression and principal component analyses for statistical modeling of daily building energy consumption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reddy, T.A. (Energy Systems Lab., Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)); Claridge, D.E. (Energy Systems Lab., Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States))

    1994-01-01

    Multiple regression modeling of monitored building energy use data is often faulted as a reliable means of predicting energy use on the grounds that multicollinearity between the regressor variables can lead both to improper interpretation of the relative importance of the various physical regressor parameters and to a model with unstable regressor coefficients. Principal component analysis (PCA) has the potential to overcome such drawbacks. While a few case studies have already attempted to apply this technique to building energy data, the objectives of this study were to make a broader evaluation of PCA and multiple regression analysis (MRA) and to establish guidelines under which one approach is preferable to the other. Four geographic locations in the US with different climatic conditions were selected and synthetic data sequence representative of daily energy use in large institutional buildings were generated in each location using a linear model with outdoor temperature, outdoor specific humidity and solar radiation as the three regression variables. MRA and PCA approaches were then applied to these data sets and their relative performances were compared. Conditions under which PCA seems to perform better than MRA were identified and preliminary recommendations on the use of either modeling approach formulated. (orig.)

  1. Why do children think they get discomfort related to daily activities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Jemma; Straker, Leon; Ciccarelli, Marina

    2009-01-01

    Children commonly report musculoskeletal discomfort related to different activities such as computer use, playing electronic games, watching TV, reading, and performing physical and hand intensive activities. Discomfort can result in disability and is a strong predictor of future discomfort in adulthood. Adult beliefs regarding discomfort can affect the level of disability and are modifiable. Children's beliefs regarding discomfort could potentially be modified to minimise disability related to musculoskeletal disorders. The aim of this study was to describe children's beliefs about why they experience musculoskeletal discomfort, both in general and related to specific activities. Eighty eight school children completed questionnaires on frequency and usual duration of nine activities, whether they had felt discomfort and what they believed was the cause of any discomfort in relation to those activities. The most common activity was TV watching, and most activities were performed for 1 hour or shorter. Bad posture and doing too much of a certain activity were the most common beliefs regarding reasons for discomfort. This study shows that children are developing beliefs that tend to reflect scientific knowledge about risk factors. These beliefs could be incorporated into preventative health interventions.

  2. Analysis and modelling of spatio-temporal properties of daily rainfall over the Danube basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serinaldi, F.; Kilsby, C. G.

    2012-04-01

    Central and Eastern Europe are prone to severe floods due to heavy rainfall that cause societal and economic damages, ranging from agriculture to water resources, from the insurance/reinsurance sector to the energy industry. To improve the flood risk analysis, a better characterisation and modelling of the rainfall patterns over this area, which involves the Danube river watershed, is strategically important. In this study, we analyse the spatio-temporal properties of a large data set of daily rainfall time series from 15 countries in the Central Eastern Europe through different lagged and non-lagged indices of associations that quantify both the overall dependence and extreme dependence of pairwise observations. We also show that these measures are linked to each other and can be written in a unique and coherent notation within the copula framework. Moreover, the lagged version of these measures allows exploring some important spatio-temporal properties of the rainfall fields. The exploratory analysis is complemented by the preliminary results of a spatio-temporal rainfall simulation performed via a compound model based upon the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) and meta-elliptical multivariate distributions.

  3. Oral temperatures of the elderly in nursing homes in summer and winter in relation to activities of daily living

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, K.; Tanaka, Masatoshi; Motohashi, Yutaka; Maeda, Akira

    This study was conducted to clarify the seasonal difference in body temperature in summer and winter, and to document the thermal environment of the elderly living in nursing homes. The subjects were 57 healthy elderly people aged >=63 years living in two nursing homes in Japan. One of the homes was characterized by subjects with low levels of activities of daily living (ADL). Oral temperatures were measured in the morning and afternoon, with simultaneous recording of ambient temperature and relative humidity. Oral temperatures in summer were higher than in winter, with statistically significant differences (Pchanges in ambient temperature.

  4. Simulation of daily streamflow for nine river basins in eastern Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haj, Adel E.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Hutchinson, Kasey J.

    2015-10-14

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for nine river basins in eastern Iowa that drain into the Mississippi River. The models are part of a suite of methods for estimating daily streamflow at ungaged sites. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed- parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration and validation periods used in each basin mostly were October 1, 2002, through September 30, 2012, but differed depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations.

  5. A Comparison of SWAT and ANN Models for Daily Runoff Simulation in Different Climatic Zones of Peninsular Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Jimeno-Sáez

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Streamflow data are of prime importance to water-resources planning and management, and the accuracy of their estimation is very important for decision making. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT and Artificial Neural Network (ANN models have been evaluated and compared to find a method to improve streamflow estimation. For a more complete evaluation, the accuracy and ability of these streamflow estimation models was also established separately based on their performance during different periods of flows using regional flow duration curves (FDCs. Specifically, the FDCs were divided into five sectors: very low, low, medium, high and very high flow. This segmentation of flow allows analysis of the model performance for every important discharge event precisely. In this study, the models were applied in two catchments in Peninsular Spain with contrasting climatic conditions: Atlantic and Mediterranean climates. The results indicate that SWAT and ANNs were generally good tools in daily streamflow modelling. However, SWAT was found to be more successful in relation to better simulation of lower flows, while ANNs were superior at estimating higher flows in all cases.

  6. Difference in the relation between daily mortality and air pollution among elderly and all-ages populations in southwestern France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Filleul, Laurent; Le Tertre, A.L.; Baldi, Isabelle; Tessier, J.-F.

    2004-01-01

    Numerous time series studies around the world have reported an association between mortality and particulate air pollution. We investigated the distribution over time of effect of air pollution on short-term mortality among subjects aged 65 years and older and of all ages in Bordeaux, France. Statistical analysis was based on generalized additive models using either loess or penalized spline smoothing. Our study found a significant positive association between air pollution and all nonaccidental mortality and specific mortality in both group of population (all ages and elderly) with a greater effect among the elderly, particularly for respiratory mortality. For this case, we observed a greater effect according to distributed lag models (0-5 days) among the elderly, with an estimated increase of 9.2% in the daily number of deaths for 10 μg/m 3 of daily black smoke [95% CI, 3.4-15.3]. These results contribute to the efforts made to understand how air pollution promotes adverse health effects and to identify susceptible subgroups

  7. Analysis and prediction of daily physical activity level data using autoregressive integrated moving average models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Long, Xi; Pauws, S.C.; Pijl, M.; Lacroix, J.; Goris, A.H.C.; Aarts, R.M.

    2009-01-01

    Results are provided on predicting daily physical activity level (PAL) data from past data of participants of a physical activity lifestyle program aimed at promoting a healthier lifestyle consisting of more physical exercise. The PAL data quantifies the level of a person’s daily physical activity

  8. Differential Associations and Daily Smoking of Adolescents: The Importance of Same-Sex Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nofziger, Stacey; Lee, Hye-Ryeon

    2006-01-01

    This article examines whether the importance of parents, siblings, best friends, and romantic interests are sex-specific in predicting daily juvenile smoking. Juveniles who smoke daily are strongly influenced by prosmoking attitudes and behaviors of same-sex family members. However, peers remain the most important associations in predicting daily…

  9. Sex-related differences in serum cotinine concentrations in daily cigarette smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Wen Qi; Cohen, Sigal Ben-Zaken; Man, S F Paul; Sin, Don D

    2008-08-01

    Self-reported use of cigarettes generally underestimates the true cigarette exposure of smokers. Serum cotinine is considered the best biomarker to evaluate tobacco exposure. This study determined whether or not there were any significant differences in serum cotinine concentrations between men and women when they reported smoking the same number of cigarettes per day. We analyzed cotinine and tobacco consumption data on 680 women and 840 men, aged 20 years or older, who smoked at least 100 cigarettes during their lifetime and were still actively smoking at the time of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (1999-2002). Overall, compared with men, women reported smoking fewer cigarettes per day (16.1 vs. 18.7, ppoverty status, the use of either menthol or regular cigarettes, and the nicotine content in cigarettes, female compared with male smokers had lower serum cotinine concentrations (difference of 117.6 nmol/L; 95% CI = 42.6-192.6, p = .003). The difference was particularly notable in moderate to heavy smokers (i.e., those who smoked more than 15 cigarettes/day). These findings indicate that significant sex-related differences exist in serum cotinine levels among smokers, which suggests that self-reports may overestimate cigarette exposure in women compared with men.

  10. Refinement of the daily precipitation simulated by the CMIP5 models over the north of the Northeast of Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gyrlene Aparecida Mendes da Silva

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The ability of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN and the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR in reproducing the area-average observed daily precipitation during the rainy season (Feb-Mar-Apr over the north of the Northeast of Brazil (NEB is examined. For the present climate of Dec-Jan-Feb from 1963 to 2003 period these statistical models are developed and validated using the observed daily precipitation and simulated from the historical outputs of 4 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5. The simulations from all the models during DJF and FMA seasons show an anomalous intensification of the ITCZ and southward displacement in comparison with the climatology. Correlations of 0.54, 0.66 and 0.66 are found between the simulated daily precipitation of the CCSM4, GFDL_ESM2M and MIROC_ESM models during DJF season and the observed values during FMA season. Only the CCSM4 model displays a slightly reasonable agreement with the observations. A comparison between the statistical downscaling using the nonlinear (ANN and linear model (MLR to identify the one most suitable for the analysis of daily precipitation was made. The ANN technique provides more ability to predict the present climate when compared to MLR technique. Based on this result, we examined the accuracy of the ANN model in project the changes for the future climate period from 2055 to 2095 over the same study region. For instance, a comparison between the daily precipitation changes projected indirectly from the ANN during Feb-Mar-Apr with those projected directly from the CMIP5 models forced by RCP 8.5 scenario is made. The results suggest that ANN model weights the CMIP5 projections according to the each model ability in simulating the present climate (and its variability. In others, the ANN model is a potentially promising approach to use as a complementary tool to improvement of the seasonal numerical simulations.

  11. Improving probabilistic prediction of daily streamflow by identifying Pareto optimal approaches for modeling heteroscedastic residual errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    McInerney, David; Thyer, Mark; Kavetski, Dmitri; Lerat, Julien; Kuczera, George

    2017-03-01

    Reliable and precise probabilistic prediction of daily catchment-scale streamflow requires statistical characterization of residual errors of hydrological models. This study focuses on approaches for representing error heteroscedasticity with respect to simulated streamflow, i.e., the pattern of larger errors in higher streamflow predictions. We evaluate eight common residual error schemes, including standard and weighted least squares, the Box-Cox transformation (with fixed and calibrated power parameter λ) and the log-sinh transformation. Case studies include 17 perennial and 6 ephemeral catchments in Australia and the United States, and two lumped hydrological models. Performance is quantified using predictive reliability, precision, and volumetric bias metrics. We find the choice of heteroscedastic error modeling approach significantly impacts on predictive performance, though no single scheme simultaneously optimizes all performance metrics. The set of Pareto optimal schemes, reflecting performance trade-offs, comprises Box-Cox schemes with λ of 0.2 and 0.5, and the log scheme (λ = 0, perennial catchments only). These schemes significantly outperform even the average-performing remaining schemes (e.g., across ephemeral catchments, median precision tightens from 105% to 40% of observed streamflow, and median biases decrease from 25% to 4%). Theoretical interpretations of empirical results highlight the importance of capturing the skew/kurtosis of raw residuals and reproducing zero flows. Paradoxically, calibration of λ is often counterproductive: in perennial catchments, it tends to overfit low flows at the expense of abysmal precision in high flows. The log-sinh transformation is dominated by the simpler Pareto optimal schemes listed above. Recommendations for researchers and practitioners seeking robust residual error schemes for practical work are provided.

  12. Improving fire season definition by optimized temporal modelling of daily human-caused ignitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costafreda-Aumedes, S; Vega-Garcia, C; Comas, C

    2018-07-01

    Wildfire suppression management is usually based on fast control of all ignitions, especially in highly populated countries with pervasive values-at-risk. To minimize values-at-risk loss by improving response time of suppression resources it is necessary to anticipate ignitions, which are mainly caused by people. Previous studies have found that human-ignition patterns change spatially and temporally depending on socio-economic activities, hence, the deployment of suppression resources along the year should consider these patterns. However, full suppression capacity is operational only within legally established fire seasons, driven by past events and budgets, which limits response capacity and increases damages out of them. The aim of this study was to assess the temporal definition of fire seasons from the perspective of human-ignition patterns for the case study of Spain, where people cause over 95% of fires. Humans engage in activities that use fire as a tool in certain periods within a year, and in locations linked to specific spatial factors. Geographic variables (population, infrastructures, physiography and land uses) were used as explanatory variables for human-ignition patterns. The changing influence of these geographic variables on occurrence along the year was analysed with day-by-day logistic regression models. Daily models were built for all the municipal units in the two climatic regions in Spain (Atlantic and Mediterranean Spain) from 2002 to 2014, and similar models were grouped within continuous periods, designated as ignition-based seasons. We found three ignition-based seasons in the Mediterranean region and five in the Atlantic zones, not coincidental with calendar seasons, but with a high degree of agreement with current legally designated operational fire seasons. Our results suggest that an additional late-winter-early-spring fire season in the Mediterranean area and the extension of this same season in the Atlantic zone should be re

  13. Models for S&P500 Dynamics: Evidence from Realized Volatility, Daily Returns, and Option Prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Mimouni, Karim

    in the search for alternative specifications. We then estimate the models using maximum likelihood on S&P500 returns. Finally, we employ nonlinear least squares on a panel of option data. In comparison with earlier studies that explicitly solve the filtering problem, we analyze a more comprehensive option data......Most recent empirical option valuation studies build on the affine square root (SQR) stochastic volatility model. The SQR model is a convenient choice, because it yields closed-form solutions for option prices. However, relatively little is known about the resulting biases. We investigate...... alternatives to the SQR model, by comparing its empirical performance with that of five different but equally parsimonious stochastic volatility models. We provide empirical evidence from three different sources. We first use realized volatilities to assess the properties of the SQR model and to guide us...

  14. Melatonin in octopus (Octopus vulgaris): tissue distribution, daily changes and relation with serotonin and its acid metabolite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, José L P; López Patiño, Marcos A; Hermosilla, Consuelo; Conde-Sieira, Marta; Soengas, José L; Rocha, Francisco; Míguez, Jesús M

    2011-08-01

    Information regarding melatonin production in molluscs is very limited. In this study the presence and daily fluctuations of melatonin levels were investigated in hemolymph, retina and nervous system-related structures in the cephalopod Octopus vulgaris. Adult animals were maintained in captivity under natural photoperiod and killed at different times in a regular daily cycle. Levels of melatonin, serotonin (5-HT) and its acid metabolite (5-hydroxyindole acetic acid, 5-HIAA) in the hemolymph, retina, optic lobe, and cerebral ganglion were assayed by HPLC. Melatonin content fluctuated rhythmically in the retina and hemolymph, peaking at night. In the retina, but not in the other neural tissues, the rhythm was opposite to that of 5-HT, which displayed basal levels at night. Also, 5-HIAA levels in the retina were higher during the night, supporting that rhythmic melatonin production could be linked to diurnal changes in 5-HT degradation. The high levels of melatonin found in the retina point to it as the major source of melatonin in octopus; in addition, a large variation of melatonin content was found in the optic lobe with maximal values at night. All these data suggest that melatonin might play a role in the transduction of the light-dark cycle information for adjustment of rhythmic physiological events in cephalopods.

  15. A Novel Hybrid Data-Driven Model for Daily Land Surface Temperature Forecasting Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xike Zhang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Daily land surface temperature (LST forecasting is of great significance for application in climate-related, agricultural, eco-environmental, or industrial studies. Hybrid data-driven prediction models using Ensemble Empirical Mode Composition (EEMD coupled with Machine Learning (ML algorithms are useful for achieving these purposes because they can reduce the difficulty of modeling, require less history data, are easy to develop, and are less complex than physical models. In this article, a computationally simple, less data-intensive, fast and efficient novel hybrid data-driven model called the EEMD Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM neural network, namely EEMD-LSTM, is proposed to reduce the difficulty of modeling and to improve prediction accuracy. The daily LST data series from the Mapoling and Zhijaing stations in the Dongting Lake basin, central south China, from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2016 is used as a case study. The EEMD is firstly employed to decompose the original daily LST data series into many Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs and a single residue item. Then, the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF is used to obtain the number of input data sample points for LSTM models. Next, the LSTM models are constructed to predict the decompositions. All the predicted results of the decompositions are aggregated as the final daily LST. Finally, the prediction performance of the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is assessed in terms of the Mean Square Error (MSE, Mean Absolute Error (MAE, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE, Pearson Correlation Coefficient (CC and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE. To validate the hybrid data-driven model, the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is compared with the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN, LSTM and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD coupled with RNN, EMD-LSTM and EEMD-RNN models, and their comparison results demonstrate that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model performs better than the other

  16. A Novel Hybrid Data-Driven Model for Daily Land Surface Temperature Forecasting Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xike; Zhang, Qiuwen; Zhang, Gui; Nie, Zhiping; Gui, Zifan; Que, Huafei

    2018-05-21

    Daily land surface temperature (LST) forecasting is of great significance for application in climate-related, agricultural, eco-environmental, or industrial studies. Hybrid data-driven prediction models using Ensemble Empirical Mode Composition (EEMD) coupled with Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are useful for achieving these purposes because they can reduce the difficulty of modeling, require less history data, are easy to develop, and are less complex than physical models. In this article, a computationally simple, less data-intensive, fast and efficient novel hybrid data-driven model called the EEMD Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, namely EEMD-LSTM, is proposed to reduce the difficulty of modeling and to improve prediction accuracy. The daily LST data series from the Mapoling and Zhijaing stations in the Dongting Lake basin, central south China, from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2016 is used as a case study. The EEMD is firstly employed to decompose the original daily LST data series into many Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) and a single residue item. Then, the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) is used to obtain the number of input data sample points for LSTM models. Next, the LSTM models are constructed to predict the decompositions. All the predicted results of the decompositions are aggregated as the final daily LST. Finally, the prediction performance of the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is assessed in terms of the Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Pearson Correlation Coefficient (CC) and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE). To validate the hybrid data-driven model, the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is compared with the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), LSTM and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) coupled with RNN, EMD-LSTM and EEMD-RNN models, and their comparison results demonstrate that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model performs better than the other five

  17. Target oriented relational model finding

    OpenAIRE

    Cunha, Alcino; Macedo, Nuno Filipe Moreira; Guimarães, Tiago Miguel Moreira

    2014-01-01

    Lecture Notes in Computer Science 8411, 2014 Model finders are becoming useful in many software engineering problems. Kodkod is one of the most popular, due to its support for relational logic (a combination of first order logic with relational algebra operators and transitive closure), allowing a simpler specification of constraints, and support for partial instances, allowing the specification of a priori (exact, but potentially partial) knowledge about a problem's solution. However, in ...

  18. Health professionals perceive teamwork with relatives as an obstacle in their daily work - a focus group interview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laursen, Jannie; Broholm, Malene; Rosenberg, Jacob

    2017-09-01

    Health professionals must often balance between different rationalities within the hospital organisation. Having adequate time with patients, shorter waiting time and the ability to greater professional autonomy have been shown to help provide a higher quality of care. Empathy and sympathy appear to be crucial components for the health professionals and their relationship to patients. The aim of this study was to explore health professionals' experiences of relatives to critically ill patients in order to identify aspects that may facilitate a better understanding of this teamwork. The study was descriptive and exploratory and had a qualitative design with a phenomenological/hermeneutic orientation for the interviews. Focus group was the chosen methodology. The study comprised 19 health professionals in four focus groups. Two themes emerged from the interviews: the hospital culture does not integrate relatives, and health professionals felt that relatives took their resources and saw them as an obstacle in their daily work. Health professionals felt divided between the system and the individual sphere, which makes it difficult for them to integrate relatives more and see them as participants in a natural teamwork for the benefit of the patient. © 2016 Nordic College of Caring Science.

  19. Cosmological models in general relativity

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Cosmological models in general relativity. B B PAUL. Department of Physics, Nowgong College, Nagaon, Assam, India. MS received 4 October 2002; revised 6 March 2003; accepted 21 May 2003. Abstract. LRS Bianchi type-I space-time filled with perfect fluid is considered here with deceler- ation parameter as variable.

  20. Estimating total maximum daily loads with the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granato, Gregory; Jones, Susan Cheung

    2017-01-01

    The Massachusetts Department of Transportation (DOT) and the Rhode Island DOT are assessing and addressing roadway contributions to total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). Example analyses for total nitrogen, total phosphorus, suspended sediment, and total zinc in highway runoff were done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with FHWA to simulate long-term annual loads for TMDL analyses with the stochastic empirical loading and dilution model known as SELDM. Concentration statistics from 19 highway runoff monitoring sites in Massachusetts were used with precipitation statistics from 11 long-term monitoring sites to simulate long-term pavement yields (loads per unit area). Highway sites were stratified by traffic volume or surrounding land use to calculate concentration statistics for rural roads, low-volume highways, high-volume highways, and ultraurban highways. The median of the event mean concentration statistics in each traffic volume category was used to simulate annual yields from pavement for a 29- or 30-year period. Long-term average yields for total nitrogen, phosphorus, and zinc from rural roads are lower than yields from the other categories, but yields of sediment are higher than for the low-volume highways. The average yields of the selected water quality constituents from high-volume highways are 1.35 to 2.52 times the associated yields from low-volume highways. The average yields of the selected constituents from ultraurban highways are 1.52 to 3.46 times the associated yields from high-volume highways. Example simulations indicate that both concentration reduction and flow reduction by structural best management practices are crucial for reducing runoff yields.

  1. A Discrete-Time Model for Daily S&P500 Returns and Realized Variations: Jumps and Leverage Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Kretschmer, Uta; Pigorsch, Christian

    We develop an empirically highly accurate discrete-time daily stochastic volatility model that explicitly distinguishes between the jump and continuoustime components of price movements using nonparametric realized variation and Bipower variation measures constructed from high-frequency intraday...... dependencies inherent in the high-frequency intraday data....

  2. On using the linear-quadratic model in daily clinical practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yaes, R.J.; Patel, P.; Maruyama, Y.

    1991-01-01

    To facilitate its use in the clinic, Barendsen's formulation of the Linear-Quadratic (LQ) model is modified by expressing isoeffect doses in terms of the Standard Effective Dose, Ds, the isoeffective dose for the standard fractionation schedule of 2 Gy fractions given once per day, 5 days per week. For any arbitrary fractionation schedule, where total dose D is given in N fractions of size d in a total time T, the corresponding Standard Effective Dose, Ds, will be proportional to the total dose D and the proportionality constant will be called the Standard Relative Effectiveness, SRE, to distinguish it from Barendsen's Relative Effectiveness, RE. Thus, Ds = SRE.D. The constant SRE depends on the parameters of the fractionation schedule, and on the tumor or normal tissue being irradiated. For the simple LQ model with no time dependence, which is applicable to late reacting tissue, SRE = [(d + delta)/(2 + delta)], where d is the fraction size and delta = alpha/beta is the alpha/beta ratio for the tissue of interest, with both d and delta expressed in units of Gy. Application of this method to the Linear Quadratic model with a time dependence, the LQ + time model, and to low dose rate brachytherapy will be discussed. To clarify the method of calculation, and to demonstrate its simplicity, examples from the clinical literature will be used

  3. Daily air quality index forecasting with hybrid models: A case in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Suling; Lian, Xiuyuan; Liu, Haixia; Hu, Jianming; Wang, Yuanyuan; Che, Jinxing

    2017-01-01

    Air quality is closely related to quality of life. Air pollution forecasting plays a vital role in air pollution warnings and controlling. However, it is difficult to attain accurate forecasts for air pollution indexes because the original data are non-stationary and chaotic. The existing forecasting methods, such as multiple linear models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector regression (SVR), cannot fully capture the information from series of pollution indexes. Therefore, new effective techniques need to be proposed to forecast air pollution indexes. The main purpose of this research is to develop effective forecasting models for regional air quality indexes (AQI) to address the problems above and enhance forecasting accuracy. Therefore, two hybrid models (EMD-SVR-Hybrid and EMD-IMFs-Hybrid) are proposed to forecast AQI data. The main steps of the EMD-SVR-Hybrid model are as follows: the data preprocessing technique EMD (empirical mode decomposition) is utilized to sift the original AQI data to obtain one group of smoother IMFs (intrinsic mode functions) and a noise series, where the IMFs contain the important information (level, fluctuations and others) from the original AQI series. LS-SVR is applied to forecast the sum of the IMFs, and then, S-ARIMA (seasonal ARIMA) is employed to forecast the residual sequence of LS-SVR. In addition, EMD-IMFs-Hybrid first separately forecasts the IMFs via statistical models and sums the forecasting results of the IMFs as EMD-IMFs. Then, S-ARIMA is employed to forecast the residuals of EMD-IMFs. To certify the proposed hybrid model, AQI data from June 2014 to August 2015 collected from Xingtai in China are utilized as a test case to investigate the empirical research. In terms of some of the forecasting assessment measures, the AQI forecasting results of Xingtai show that the two proposed hybrid models are superior to ARIMA, SVR, GRNN, EMD-GRNN, Wavelet-GRNN and Wavelet-SVR. Therefore, the

  4. Epistemology and Rosen's Modeling Relation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dress, W.B.

    1999-01-01

    Rosen's modeling relation is embedded in Popper's three worlds to provide an heuristic tool for model building and a guide for thinking about complex systems. The utility of this construct is demonstrated by suggesting a solution to the problem of pseudo science and a resolution of the famous Bohr-Einstein debates. A theory of bizarre systems is presented by an analogy with entangled particles of quantum mechanics. This theory underscores the poverty of present-day computational systems (e.g., computers) for creating complex and bizarre entities by distinguishing between mechanism and organism

  5. Modeling biology using relational databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peitzsch, Robert M

    2003-02-01

    There are several different methodologies that can be used for designing a database schema; no one is the best for all occasions. This unit demonstrates two different techniques for designing relational tables and discusses when each should be used. These two techniques presented are (1) traditional Entity-Relationship (E-R) modeling and (2) a hybrid method that combines aspects of data warehousing and E-R modeling. The method of choice depends on (1) how well the information and all its inherent relationships are understood, (2) what types of questions will be asked, (3) how many different types of data will be included, and (4) how much data exists.

  6. Persuasion, Politeness and Relational Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerzy Świątek

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Politeness Theory, just like Grice’s Cooperative Principle, points out that pragmatic analysis of language behaviour has to be grounded in extra-linguistic facts of social (or even biological nature. Additionally, despite the slightly misleading label, Politeness Theory provides a sound methodology to explain some persuasive as well as politeness phenomena. In the same vein, the so called Relational Model Theory provides another theoretical framework for the explanation of persuasive phenomena and persuasive language. Both Relational Model Theory and Politeness Theory show that persuasion is also to be understood as a rational response to not-so-rational social and biological needs. In the article an attempt is made to compare the two theories focusing on their explanatory power in reference to language choices aiming at enhancing the persuasive potential of a language message.

  7. Continuous-Time Models, Realized Volatilities, and Testable Distributional Implications for Daily Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben G.; Bollerslev, Tim; Frederiksen, Per Houmann

    arrival process. On applying our sequential test procedure to the thirty individual stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, the data suggest that it is important to allow for both time-varying diffusive volatility, jumps, and leverage effects in order to satisfactorily describe the daily stock...

  8. Persuasion, Politeness and Relational Models

    OpenAIRE

    Jerzy Świątek

    2017-01-01

    Politeness Theory, just like Grice’s Cooperative Principle, points out that pragmatic analysis of language behaviour has to be grounded in extra-linguistic facts of social (or even biological) nature. Additionally, despite the slightly misleading label, Politeness Theory provides a sound methodology to explain some persuasive as well as politeness phenomena. In the same vein, the so called Relational Model Theory provides another theoretical framework for the explanation of persuasive phenome...

  9. Performance of five surface energy balance models for estimating daily evapotranspiration in high biomass sorghum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagle, Pradeep; Bhattarai, Nishan; Gowda, Prasanna H.; Kakani, Vijaya G.

    2017-06-01

    Robust evapotranspiration (ET) models are required to predict water usage in a variety of terrestrial ecosystems under different geographical and agrometeorological conditions. As a result, several remote sensing-based surface energy balance (SEB) models have been developed to estimate ET over large regions. However, comparison of the performance of several SEB models at the same site is limited. In addition, none of the SEB models have been evaluated for their ability to predict ET in rain-fed high biomass sorghum grown for biofuel production. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of five widely used single-source SEB models, namely Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), Mapping ET with Internalized Calibration (METRIC), Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS), Simplified Surface Energy Balance Index (S-SEBI), and operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop), for estimating ET over a high biomass sorghum field during the 2012 and 2013 growing seasons. The predicted ET values were compared against eddy covariance (EC) measured ET (ETEC) for 19 cloud-free Landsat image. In general, S-SEBI, SEBAL, and SEBS performed reasonably well for the study period, while METRIC and SSEBop performed poorly. All SEB models substantially overestimated ET under extremely dry conditions as they underestimated sensible heat (H) and overestimated latent heat (LE) fluxes under dry conditions during the partitioning of available energy. METRIC, SEBAL, and SEBS overestimated LE regardless of wet or dry periods. Consequently, predicted seasonal cumulative ET by METRIC, SEBAL, and SEBS were higher than seasonal cumulative ETEC in both seasons. In contrast, S-SEBI and SSEBop substantially underestimated ET under too wet conditions, and predicted seasonal cumulative ET by S-SEBI and SSEBop were lower than seasonal cumulative ETEC in the relatively wetter 2013 growing season. Our results indicate the necessity of inclusion of soil moisture or plant water stress

  10. Comparing an Annual and a Daily Time-Step Model for Predicting Field-Scale Phosphorus Loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolster, Carl H; Forsberg, Adam; Mittelstet, Aaron; Radcliffe, David E; Storm, Daniel; Ramirez-Avila, John; Sharpley, Andrew N; Osmond, Deanna

    2017-11-01

    A wide range of mathematical models are available for predicting phosphorus (P) losses from agricultural fields, ranging from simple, empirically based annual time-step models to more complex, process-based daily time-step models. In this study, we compare field-scale P-loss predictions between the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE), an empirically based annual time-step model, and the Texas Best Management Practice Evaluation Tool (TBET), a process-based daily time-step model based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. We first compared predictions of field-scale P loss from both models using field and land management data collected from 11 research sites throughout the southern United States. We then compared predictions of P loss from both models with measured P-loss data from these sites. We observed a strong and statistically significant ( loss between the two models; however, APLE predicted, on average, 44% greater dissolved P loss, whereas TBET predicted, on average, 105% greater particulate P loss for the conditions simulated in our study. When we compared model predictions with measured P-loss data, neither model consistently outperformed the other, indicating that more complex models do not necessarily produce better predictions of field-scale P loss. Our results also highlight limitations with both models and the need for continued efforts to improve their accuracy. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  11. Estimating daily surface NO2 concentrations from satellite data - a case study over Hong Kong using land use regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anand, Jasdeep S.; Monks, Paul S.

    2017-07-01

    Land use regression (LUR) models have been used in epidemiology to determine the fine-scale spatial variation in air pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in cities and larger regions. However, they are often limited in their temporal resolution, which may potentially be rectified by employing the synoptic coverage provided by satellite measurements. In this work a mixed-effects LUR model is developed to model daily surface NO2 concentrations over the Hong Kong SAR during the period 2005-2015. In situ measurements from the Hong Kong Air Quality Monitoring Network, along with tropospheric vertical column density (VCD) data from the OMI, GOME-2A, and SCIAMACHY satellite instruments were combined with fine-scale land use parameters to provide the spatiotemporal information necessary to predict daily surface concentrations. Cross-validation with the in situ data shows that the mixed-effects LUR model using OMI data has a high predictive power (adj. R2 = 0. 84), especially when compared with surface concentrations derived using the MACC-II reanalysis model dataset (adj. R2 = 0. 11). Time series analysis shows no statistically significant trend in NO2 concentrations during 2005-2015, despite a reported decline in NOx emissions. This study demonstrates the utility in combining satellite data with LUR models to derive daily maps of ambient surface NO2 for use in exposure studies.

  12. [Patient reported outcome of tyrosine kinase inhibitor related side effects and their impact on daily life in Chinese patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in the chronic phase].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, L; Wang, H B; Jiang, Q

    2016-11-14

    Objective: To explore the impact of patient reported outcome of tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) related side effects on daily life in Chinese patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) in the chronic phase (CP). Methods: From May to November in 2014, anonymous questionnaires were distributed to adult CML patients who were receiving TKI treatment in China. The impact of TKI-related side effects on daily life were assessed by the score of 1 (no impact) to 5 (high impact) from patient self-report. Results: Data from 731 respondents in the CP who reported the score of the impact of TKI-related side effects on daily life were collected. 407 (56%) were male. The median age was 41 years (range, 18 to 88 years). 560 (77%) started TKI treatment within 1 year after diagnosis. With a median treatment duration of 3 years (range, effects were edema ( n =323, 44% ), fatigue ( n =277, 38% ), gastrointestinal disorders ( n =235, 32% ), skin color changes ( n =142, 19% ), muscle cramps ( n =137, 19% ), rash ( n =105, 14% ), hepatic function abnormalities ( n =91, 12%), weight gain ( n =86, 12%), and cytopenia ( n =59, 8%). Multivariate analyses showed that TKI treatment duration effects on daily life in 218 (30%)respondents (1 score). 375 (51%)respondents reported their daily life were slightly or moderately decreased (2 or 3 score), while 138 (19%) significantly decreased (4 or 5 score). Multivariate analyses showed that female, ≥40 years old, use of generic TKI, TKI treatment duration negative effect on their daily life. When taking TKI related side-effects into considderation, secondary school and below, use of generic TKI, TKI treatment duration negative effect on their daily life. Conclusion: Edema, fatigue, gastrointestinal disorders, rash, skin color changes and hepatic function abnormalities were common TKI-related side effects and influenced CML patients' daily life in China. In addition, female, older age, lower education level, use of generic TKI and shorter TKI

  13. Simulation of daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Daniel E.; Haj, Adel E.; Risley, John C.

    2017-10-24

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa that drain into the Missouri River. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration periods for each basin varied depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations.A geographic information system tool was used to delineate each basin and estimate initial values for model parameters based on basin physical and geographical features. A U.S. Geological Survey automatic calibration tool that uses a shuffled complex evolution algorithm was used for initial calibration, and then manual modifications were made to parameter values to complete the calibration of each basin model. The main objective of the calibration was to match daily discharge values of simulated streamflow to measured daily discharge values. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was calibrated at 42 sites located in the 12 river basins in western Iowa.The accuracy of the simulated daily streamflow values at the 42 calibration sites varied by river and by site. The models were satisfactory at 36 of the sites based on statistical results. Unsatisfactory performance at the six other sites can be attributed to several factors: (1) low flow, no flow, and flashy flow conditions in headwater subbasins having a small drainage area; (2) poor representation of the groundwater and storage components of flow within a basin; (3) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and water use; and (4) limited availability and accuracy of meteorological input data. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

  14. Growing Pains: The Impact of Disaster-Related and Daily Stressors on the Psychological and Psychosocial Functioning of Youth in Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernando, Gaithri A.; Miller, Kenneth E.; Berger, Dale E.

    2010-01-01

    Daily stressors may mediate the relation between exposure to disaster-related stressors and psychological and psychosocial distress among youth in disaster-affected countries. A sample of 427 Sri Lankan Sinhalese, Tamil, and Muslim youth (mean age = 14.5) completed a survey with measures of exposure to disaster-related stressors and daily…

  15. The relations of age and pubertal development with cortisol and daily stress in youth at clinical risk for psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moskow, Danielle M; Addington, Jean; Bearden, Carrie E; Cadenhead, Kristin S; Cornblatt, Barbara A; Heinssen, Robert; Mathalon, Daniel H; McGlashan, Thomas H; Perkins, Diana O; Seidman, Larry J; Tsuang, Ming T; Cannon, Tyrone D; Woods, Scott W; Walker, Elaine F

    2016-04-01

    Prodromal syndromes often begin in adolescence - a period of neurodevelopmental changes and heightened stress sensitivity. Research has shown elevated stress and cortisol in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis. This cross-sectional study examined relations of age and pubertal status with cortisol and self-reported stress in healthy controls (HCs) and CHR adolescents. It was hypothesized that the relations of age and pubertal stage with cortisol and stress would be more pronounced in CHR youth. Participants were 93 HCs and 348 CHR adolescents from the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS). At baseline, measures of stress (Daily Stress Inventory - DSI), Tanner stage (TS), and salivary cortisol were obtained. ANCOVA revealed increased DSI scores with age for both groups, and higher DSI scores in CHR adolescents than HCs, with a more pronounced difference for females. Contrary to prediction, with age controlled, HCs showed greater TS-related DSI increases. Analysis of cortisol showed no significant interactions, but a main effect of age and a trend toward higher cortisol in the CHR group. Correlations of cortisol with TS were higher in HC than CHR group. Stress measures increased with age in HC and CHR adolescents, and DSI scores also increased with TS in HCs. The results do not support a more pronounced age or TS increase in stress measures in CHR adolescents, but instead suggest that stress indices tend to be elevated earlier in adolescence in the CHR group. Potential determinants of findings and future directions are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. [The impact of Glivec related side effects on daily life in Chinese patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in the chronic phase].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, L; Wang, H B; Huang, X J; Jiang, Q

    2016-07-01

    To explore the impact of Glivec related side effects on daily life in Chinese patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) in the chronic phase (CP). From May to November in 2014, anonymous questionnaires were distributed to adult CML patients who were receiving tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) treatment in China. The impact of TKI related side effects on daily life were assessed by the score of 1 (no impact) to 5 (high impact) from patient self- report. Data from 548 respondents in the CP on Glivec were collected. 303(55%) cases were male with the median age of 40 years (range, 18 to 88 years). 437 (80% ) cases started Glivec treatment within one year after diagnosis with a median treatment duration of 3 years (range, effects were edema (n=278, 51% ), fatigue (n=218, 40% ), gastrointestinal disorders (n=190, 35%), muscle cramps (n=118, 22%), skin color changes (n=118, 22%), weight gain (n=71, 13%), rash (n=60, 11%), hepatic function abnormality (n=55, 10%), and cytopenia (n=38, 7%). Among the 548 respondents, the mean score of Glivec-related side effects on daily life was 2.4±1.2. There was no negative impact of Glivec related side effects on daily life in 161(29%) respondents. 295 (54% ) and 92 (17% ) respondents reported slightly or moderately (2- 3 score) and significantly decreased (4-5 score) daily life, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that Glivec treatment duration effects including fatigue (OR=2.9, 95% CI 2.1-4.1;Pnegative effect on daily life. Daily life was impaired seriously in a minority of Chinese CML patients who received Glivec, especially in the first 4 years of treatment. Fatigue, edema, gastrointestinal disorders, rash and hepatic function abnormality were side effects associated with negative impact on patients' daily life.

  17. An Empirical Model Of Fractionally Cointegrated Daily High And Low Stock Market Prices

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Dvořáková, S.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 45, č. 1 (2015), s. 193-206 ISSN 0264-9993 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Keywords : fractional cointegration * long memory * range * volatility * daily high and low prices Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.997, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/barunik-0434888.pdf

  18. Life's pregnant pause of pain: pregnant women's experiences of pelvic girdle pain related to daily life: a Swedish interview study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elden, Helen; Lundgren, Ingela; Robertson, Eva

    2013-03-01

    Pelvic girdle pain (PGP) is a universally disabling condition affecting three of 10 pregnant women. Qualitative studies on the subject are lacking. To describe pregnant women's experiences of PGP as related to daily life. In all, 27 women with PGP participating in a randomised controlled study were interviewed during 2010-2011. Qualitative content analysis was used. Five main categories emerged: PGP affects the ability to cope with everyday life; Coping with motherhood; Relationships between partners often reached the breaking point; Questioning one's identity as defined by profession and work, and Lessons learned from living with PGP. The categories illustrate how women's everyday lives were interrupted. Their inability to meet their own and others' expectations put a strain on their lives causing disappointment, sadness and frustration. It made them question and doubt their roles and identities as mothers, partners and professionals, and kept them from looking forward to future pregnancies, in the absence of effective treatment for PGP. Knowledge gained was that women with PGP should seek help immediately, listen to their bodies, and acknowledge their limitations. PGP severely affects pregnant women's everyday lives. There appears to be a lack of knowledge and awareness in general, as well as among caregivers and employers of PGP that needs to be highlighted and rectified. There is also a great need to learn how to support those suffering from it. Appropriate support during this important and rare phase in a woman's life is highly warranted. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Objectively measured daily physical activity and postural changes as related to positive and negative affect using ambulatory monitoring assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Aggio, D; Wallace, K; Boreham, N; Shankar, A; Steptoe, A; Hamer, M

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objective The aim of the study was to determine whether objectively measured daily physical activity and posture of sitting, standing, and sit-to-stand transitions are associated with daily assessments of affect. Methods Participants (N = 51, 49% female) wore ActivPal accelerometers for 24 h/d for seven consecutive days. Time spent sitting, standing, and being physically active and sit-to-stand transitions were derived for each day. Participants also completed a mood inventory each e...

  20. Objectively Measured Daily Physical Activity and Postural Changes as Related to Positive and Negative Affect Using Ambulatory Monitoring Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Aggio, D.; Wallace, K.; Boreham, N.; Shankar, A.; Steptoe, A.; Hamer, M.

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to determine whether objectively measured daily physical activity and posture of sitting, standing, and sit-to-stand transitions are associated with daily assessments of affect. METHODS: Participants (N = 51, 49% female) wore ActivPal accelerometers for 24 h/d for seven consecutive days. Time spent sitting, standing, and being physically active and sit-to-stand transitions were derived for each day. Participants also completed a mood inventory each evening....

  1. Psychologic processes in daily life with chronic whiplash: relations of posttraumatic stress symptoms and fear-of-pain to hourly pain and uptime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterling, Michele; Chadwick, Benjamin J

    2010-09-01

    Recent models of the relationship between posttraumatic stress and whiplash pain suggest that psychological stress relating to a motor vehicle crash may influence pain perception. The mechanisms of this relationship may be through more direct, psychological pathways, or through factors proposed by the fear-avoidance models of chronic pain. This study sought to investigate the relative contribution of fear-of-pain and trauma symptomatology to daily pain and time spent in an upright posture (uptime) in chronic whiplash-associated disorder (WAD). Hourly electronic-diary reports were used to explore the within-day relationship of psychological trauma symptoms and fear-of-pain to same-hour and next-hour pain reports and next-hour uptime (measured by accelerometers) in 32 individuals with a chronic WAD. Within-person effects were analyzed for 329 diary entries using multilevel modeling with fixed slopes and random intercepts. Reports of trauma-related hyperarousal were associated with greater same-hour pain, and this relationship was mediated by fear-of-pain. Fear-of-pain and uptime were independently associated with reports of increased next-hour pain (controlling for first-order serial autocorrelation). Fear-of-pain was unrelated to next-hour uptime, but trauma-related avoidance symptoms were associated with reduced uptime. This study supports the relationship between psychological trauma responses and pain, suggesting behavioral (avoidance) pathways and effects on pain perception through fear-of-pain. These findings reinforce the need to evaluate traumatic stress as a factor in recovery from WAD.

  2. A Count Model to Study the Correlates of 60 Min of Daily Physical Activity in Portuguese Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borges, Alessandra; Gomes, Thayse Natacha; Santos, Daniel; Pereira, Sara; dos Santos, Fernanda K.; Chaves, Raquel; Katzmarzyk, Peter T.; Maia, José

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to present data on Portuguese children (aged 9–11 years) complying with moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) guidelines, and to identify the importance of correlates from multiple domains associated with meeting the guidelines. Physical activity (PA) was objectively assessed by accelerometry throughout seven days on 777 children. A count model using Poisson regression was used to identify the best set of correlates that predicts the variability in meeting the guidelines. Only 3.1% of children met the recommended daily 60 min of MVPA for all seven days of the week. Further, the Cochrane–Armitage chi-square test indicated a linear and negative trend (p < 0.001) from none to all seven days of children complying with the guidelines. The count model explained 22% of the variance in meeting MVPA guidelines daily. Being a girl, having a higher BMI, belonging to families with higher income, sleeping more and taking greater time walking from home to a sporting venue significantly reduced the probability of meeting daily recommended MVPA across the seven days. Furthermore, compared to girls, increasing sleep time in boys increased their chances of compliance with the MVPA recommendations. These results reinforce the relevance of considering different covariates’ roles on PA compliance when designing efficient intervention strategies to promote healthy and active lifestyles in children. PMID:25730296

  3. A Count Model to Study the Correlates of 60 Min of Daily Physical Activity in Portuguese Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra Borges

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to present data on Portuguese children (aged 9–11 years complying with moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA guidelines, and to identify the importance of correlates from multiple domains associated with meeting the guidelines. Physical activity (PA was objectively assessed by accelerometry throughout seven days on 777 children. A count model using Poisson regression was used to identify the best set of correlates that predicts the variability in meeting the guidelines. Only 3.1% of children met the recommended daily 60 min of MVPA for all seven days of the week. Further, the Cochrane–Armitage chi-square test indicated a linear and negative trend (p < 0.001 from none to all seven days of children complying with the guidelines. The count model explained 22% of the variance in meeting MVPA guidelines daily. Being a girl, having a higher BMI, belonging to families with higher income, sleeping more and taking greater time walking from home to a sporting venue significantly reduced the probability of meeting daily recommended MVPA across the seven days. Furthermore, compared to girls, increasing sleep time in boys increased their chances of compliance with the MVPA recommendations. These results reinforce the relevance of considering different covariates’ roles on PA compliance when designing efficient intervention strategies to promote healthy and active lifestyles in children.

  4. Estimation of global daily irradiation in complex topography zones using digital elevation models and meteosat images: Comparison of the results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez-Durban, M.; Zarzalejo, L.F.; Bosch, J.L.; Rosiek, S.; Polo, J.; Batlles, F.J.

    2009-01-01

    The knowledge of the solar irradiation in a certain place is fundamental for the suitable location of solar systems, both thermal and photovoltaic. On the local scale, the topography is the most important modulating factor of the solar irradiation on the surface. In this work the global daily irradiation is estimated concerning various sky conditions, in zones of complex topography. In order to estimate the global daily irradiation we use a methodology based on a Digital Terrain Model (DTM), on one hand making use of pyranometer measurements and on the other hand utilizing satellite images. We underline that DTM application employing pyranometer measurements produces better results than estimation using satellite images, though accuracy of the same order is obtained in both cases for Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Bias Error (MBE).

  5. Estimation of global daily irradiation in complex topography zones using digital elevation models and meteosat images: Comparison of the results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Durban, M. [Dpto. de Lenguajes y Computacion, Universidad de Almeria, 04120 Almeria (Spain); Zarzalejo, L.F.; Polo, J. [Dpto. de Energia, CIEMAT, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Bosch, J.L.; Rosiek, S.; Batlles, F.J. [Dpto. Fisica Aplicada, Universidad de Almeria, 04120 Almeria (Spain)

    2009-09-15

    The knowledge of the solar irradiation in a certain place is fundamental for the suitable location of solar systems, both thermal and photovoltaic. On the local scale, the topography is the most important modulating factor of the solar irradiation on the surface. In this work the global daily irradiation is estimated concerning various sky conditions, in zones of complex topography. In order to estimate the global daily irradiation we use a methodology based on a Digital Terrain Model (DTM), on one hand making use of pyranometer measurements and on the other hand utilizing satellite images. We underline that DTM application employing pyranometer measurements produces better results than estimation using satellite images, though accuracy of the same order is obtained in both cases for Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Bias Error (MBE). (author)

  6. Validating a model that predicts daily growth and feed quality of New Zealand dairy pastures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodward, S J

    2001-09-01

    The Pasture Quality (PQ) model is a simple, mechanistic, dynamical system model that was designed to capture the essential biological processes in grazed grass-clover pasture, and to be optimised to derive improved grazing strategies for New Zealand dairy farms. While the individual processes represented in the model (photosynthesis, tissue growth, flowering, leaf death, decomposition, worms) were based on experimental data, this did not guarantee that the assembled model would accurately predict the behaviour of the system as a whole (i.e., pasture growth and quality). Validation of the whole model was thus a priority, since any strategy derived from the model could impact a farm business in the order of thousands of dollars per annum if adopted. This paper describes the process of defining performance criteria for the model, obtaining suitable data to test the model, and carrying out the validation analysis. The validation process highlighted a number of weaknesses in the model, which will lead to the model being improved. As a result, the model's utility will be enhanced. Furthermore, validation was found to have an unexpected additional benefit, in that despite the model's poor initial performance, support was generated for the model among field scientists involved in the wider project.

  7. Predicting Day-to-Day Changes in Students' School-Related Affect from Daily Academic Experiences and Social Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altermatt, Ellen Rydell

    2015-01-01

    This study examined the role that everyday academic successes and failures--and the interactions with family members and peers that follow these events--play in predicting day-to-day changes in children's emotional responses to school. Middle school students (N = 101; mean age = 11.62 years) completed daily assessments of their academic…

  8. Socio-Demographic and Lifestyle-Related Characteristics Associated with Self-Reported Any, Daily and Occasional Smoking during Pregnancy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baron, R.; Manniën, J.; de Jonge, J.; Heijmans, M.W.; Klomp, T.; Hutton, E.K.; Brug, J.

    2013-01-01

    Smoking during pregnancy is a risk factor for various adverse birth outcomes. In order to develop effective interventions, insight is needed into the characteristics associated with pregnant women who smoke. Unknown is whether these characteristics differ for women who smoke daily and women who

  9. Review of revised Klamath River Total Maximum Daily Load models from Link River Dam to Keno Dam, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rounds, Stewart A.; Sullivan, Annett B.

    2013-01-01

    Flow and water-quality models are being used to support the development of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) plans for the Klamath River downstream of Upper Klamath Lake (UKL) in south-central Oregon. For riverine reaches, the RMA-2 and RMA-11 models were used, whereas the CE-QUAL-W2 model was used to simulate pooled reaches. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was asked to review the most upstream of these models, from Link River Dam at the outlet of UKL downstream through the first pooled reach of the Klamath River from Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam. Previous versions of these models were reviewed in 2009 by USGS. Since that time, important revisions were made to correct several problems and address other issues. This review documents an assessment of the revised models, with emphasis on the model revisions and any remaining issues. The primary focus of this review is the 19.7-mile Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam reach of the Klamath River that was simulated with the CE-QUAL-W2 model. Water spends far more time in the Lake Ewauna to Keno Dam reach than in the 1-mile Link River reach that connects UKL to the Klamath River, and most of the critical reactions affecting water quality upstream of Keno Dam occur in that pooled reach. This model review includes assessments of years 2000 and 2002 current conditions scenarios, which were used to calibrate the model, as well as a natural conditions scenario that was used as the reference condition for the TMDL and was based on the 2000 flow conditions. The natural conditions scenario included the removal of Keno Dam, restoration of the Keno reef (a shallow spot that was removed when the dam was built), removal of all point-source inputs, and derivation of upstream boundary water-quality inputs from a previously developed UKL TMDL model. This review examined the details of the models, including model algorithms, parameter values, and boundary conditions; the review did not assess the draft Klamath River TMDL or the TMDL allocations

  10. Documentation of a daily mean stream temperature module—An enhancement to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Michael J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Regan, R. Steven; Atkinson, R. Dwight

    2017-09-15

    A module for simulation of daily mean water temperature in a network of stream segments has been developed as an enhancement to the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). This new module is based on the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Stream Network Temperature model, a mechanistic, one-dimensional heat transport model. The new module is integrated in PRMS. Stream-water temperature simulation is activated by selection of the appropriate input flags in the PRMS Control File and by providing the necessary additional inputs in standard PRMS input files.This report includes a comprehensive discussion of the methods relevant to the stream temperature calculations and detailed instructions for model input preparation.

  11. Bayesian modeling of the assimilative capacity component of nutrient total maximum daily loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faulkner, B. R.

    2008-08-01

    Implementing stream restoration techniques and best management practices to reduce nonpoint source nutrients implies enhancement of the assimilative capacity for the stream system. In this paper, a Bayesian method for evaluating this component of a total maximum daily load (TMDL) load capacity is developed and applied. The joint distribution of nutrient retention metrics from a literature review of 495 measurements was used for Monte Carlo sampling with a process transfer function for nutrient attenuation. Using the resulting histograms of nutrient retention, reference prior distributions were developed for sites in which some of the metrics contributing to the transfer function were measured. Contributing metrics for the prior include stream discharge, cross-sectional area, fraction of storage volume to free stream volume, denitrification rate constant, storage zone mass transfer rate, dispersion coefficient, and others. Confidence of compliance (CC) that any given level of nutrient retention has been achieved is also determined using this approach. The shape of the CC curve is dependent on the metrics measured and serves in part as a measure of the information provided by the metrics to predict nutrient retention. It is also a direct measurement, with a margin of safety, of the fraction of export load that can be reduced through changing retention metrics. For an impaired stream in western Oklahoma, a combination of prior information and measurement of nutrient attenuation was used to illustrate the proposed approach. This method may be considered for TMDL implementation.

  12. Seasonal & Daily Amazon Column CO2 & CO Observations from Ground & Space Used to Evaluate Tropical Ecosystem Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubey, M. K.; Parker, H. A.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wunch, D.; Jacobson, A. R.; Kawa, S. R.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Basu, S.; O'Dell, C.; Frankenberg, C.; Michalak, A. M.; Baker, D. F.; Christofferson, B.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Saleska, S. R.; De Araujo, A. C.; Miller, J. B.

    2016-12-01

    The Amazon basin stores 150-200 PgC, exchanges 18 PgC with the atmosphere every year and has taken up 0.42-0.65 PgC/y over the past two decades. Despite its global significance, the response of the tropical carbon cycle to climate variability and change is ill constrained as evidenced by the large negative and positive feedbacks in future climate simulations. The complex interplay of radiation, water and ecosystem phenology remains unresolved in current tropical ecosystem models. We use high frequency regional scale TCCON observations of column CO2, CO and CH4 near Manaus, Brazil that began in October 2014 to understand the aforementioned interplay of processes in regulating biosphere-atmosphere exchange. We observe a robust daily column CO2 uptake of about 2 ppm (4 ppm to 0.5 ppm) over 8 hours and evaluate how it changes as we transition to the dry season. Back-trajectory calculations show that the daily CO2 uptake footprint is terrestrial and influenced by the heterogeneity of the Amazon rain forests. The column CO falls from above 120 ppb to below 80 ppb as we transition from the biomass burning to wet seasons. The daily mean column CO2 rises by 3 ppm from October through June. Removal of biomass burning, secular CO2 increase and variations from transport (by Carbon tracker simulations) implies an increase of 2.3 ppm results from tropical biospheric processes (respiration and photosynthesis). This is consistent with ground-based remote sensing and eddy flux observations that indicate that leaf development and demography drives the tropical carbon cycle in regions that are not water limited and is not considered in current models. We compare our observations with output from 7 CO2 inversion transport models with assimilated meteorology and find that while 5 models reproduce the CO2 seasonal cycle all of them under predict the daily drawdown of CO2 by a factor of 3. This indicates that the CO2 flux partitioning between photosynthesis and respiration is incorrect

  13. The Impact of Social Support on the Relation between Stress from Daily Life Issues and Depression among East Asian International Students in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Hong-Ning

    2013-01-01

    Moderation effects of social support on the relation between stress resulting from five daily life issues (i.e., acculturation, second language, academic performance, interpersonal relationships, and financial concerns) and psychological distress (i.e., the level of depression) among China, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan international students…

  14. A prospective, observational, open-label, multicentre study to investigate the daily treatment practice of ranibizumab in patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asten, F. van; Evers-Birkenkamp, K.U.; Lith-Verhoeven, J.J. van; Jong-Hesse, Y. de; Hoppenreijs, V.P.T.; Hommersom, R.F.; Scholten, A.M.; Hoyng, C.B.; Klaver, J.H.

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE: The HELIOS (Health Economics with Lucentis in Observational Settings) study was designed on request of the Dutch Health Authority for an observational study to assess the effectiveness and safety of ranibizumab for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (wet AMD) in daily practice.

  15. A prospective, observational, open-label, multicentre study to investigate the daily treatment practice of ranibizumab in patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Asten, Freekje; Evers-Birkenkamp, Kim U.; van Lith-Verhoeven, Janneke J. C.; de Jong-Hesse, Yvonne; Hoppenreijs, Vincent P. T.; Hommersom, Richard F.; Scholten, Agnes M.; Hoyng, Carel B.; Klaver, Johannes H. J.; Klaver, J. H. J.; Hoyng, C. B.; Raijmakers, A. J.; van Lith-Verhoeven, J. J. C.; Rulo, A. H. F.; Verbraak, F. D.; Schlingemann, R. O.; Hommersom, C. F.; de Jong-Hesse, Y.; Bosch-Driessen, E. H.; Smeets, M. H.; Gonçalves, A.; Klomp, H. J.; Hoppenreijs, V. P. T.; Dito, J. J.

    2015-01-01

    The HELIOS (Health Economics with Lucentis in Observational Settings) study was designed on request of the Dutch Health Authority for an observational study to assess the effectiveness and safety of ranibizumab for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (wet AMD) in daily practice. The HELIOS

  16. Multi-location model for the estimation of the horizontal daily diffuse fraction of solar radiation in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bortolini, Marco; Gamberi, Mauro; Graziani, Alessandro; Manzini, Riccardo; Mora, Cristina

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► A multi-location model to estimate solar radiation components is proposed. ► Proposed model joins solar radiation data from several weather stations. ► Clearness index is correlated to the diffuse component through analytic functions. ► Third degree polynomial function best fits data for annual and seasonal scenarios. ► A quality control procedure and independent datasets strength model performances. - Abstract: Hourly and daily solar radiation data are crucial for the design of energy systems based on the solar source. Global irradiance, measured on the horizontal plane, is, generally, available from weather station databases. The direct and diffuse fractions are measured rarely and should be analytically calculated for many geographical locations. Aim of this paper is to present a multi-location model to estimate the expected profiles of the horizontal daily diffuse component of solar radiation. It focuses on the European (EU) geographical area joining data from 44 weather stations located in 11 countries. Data are collected by the World Radiation Data Centre (WRDC) between 2004 and 2007. Different analytic functions, correlating the daily diffuse fraction of solar radiation to the clearness index, are calculated and compared to outline the analytic expressions of the best fitting curves. The effect of seasonality on solar irradiance is considered developing summer and winter scenarios together with annual models. Similarities among the trends for the 4 years are, further, discussed. The most adopted statistical indices are used as key performance factors. Finally, data from three locations not included in the dataset considered for model development allow to test the proposed approach against an independent dataset. Obtained results show the effectiveness of adopting a multi-location approach to estimate solar radiation components on the horizontal surface instead of developing several single location models. This is due to the increase

  17. Global cross-station assessment of neuro-fuzzy models for estimating daily reference evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiri, Jalal; Nazemi, Amir Hossein; Sadraddini, Ali Ashraf; Landeras, Gorka; Kisi, Ozgur; Fard, Ahmad Fakheri; Marti, Pau

    2013-02-01

    SummaryAccurate estimation of reference evapotranspiration is important for irrigation scheduling, water resources management and planning and other agricultural water management issues. In the present paper, the capabilities of generalized neuro-fuzzy models were evaluated for estimating reference evapotranspiration using two separate sets of weather data from humid and non-humid regions of Spain and Iran. In this way, the data from some weather stations in the Basque Country and Valencia region (Spain) were used for training the neuro-fuzzy models [in humid and non-humid regions, respectively] and subsequently, the data from these regions were pooled to evaluate the generalization capability of a general neuro-fuzzy model in humid and non-humid regions. The developed models were tested in stations of Iran, located in humid and non-humid regions. The obtained results showed the capabilities of generalized neuro-fuzzy model in estimating reference evapotranspiration in different climatic zones. Global GNF models calibrated using both non-humid and humid data were found to successfully estimate ET0 in both non-humid and humid regions of Iran (the lowest MAE values are about 0.23 mm for non-humid Iranian regions and 0.12 mm for humid regions). non-humid GNF models calibrated using non-humid data performed much better than the humid GNF models calibrated using humid data in non-humid region while the humid GNF model gave better estimates in humid region.

  18. Modelling Seasonal GWR of Daily PM2.5 with Proper Auxiliary Variables for the Yangtze River Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Man Jiang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Over the past decades, regional haze episodes have frequently occurred in eastern China, especially in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD. Satellite derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD has been used to retrieve the spatial coverage of PM2.5 concentrations. To improve the retrieval accuracy of the daily AOD-PM2.5 model, various auxiliary variables like meteorological or geographical factors have been adopted into the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR model. However, these variables are always arbitrarily selected without deep consideration of their potentially varying temporal or spatial contributions in the model performance. In this manuscript, we put forward an automatic procedure to select proper auxiliary variables from meteorological and geographical factors and obtain their optimal combinations to construct four seasonal GWR models. We employ two different schemes to comprehensively test the performance of our proposed GWR models: (1 comparison with other regular GWR models by varying the number of auxiliary variables; and (2 comparison with observed ground-level PM2.5 concentrations. The result shows that our GWR models of “AOD + 3” with three common meteorological variables generally perform better than all the other GWR models involved. Our models also show powerful prediction capabilities in PM2.5 concentrations with only slight overfitting. The determination coefficients R2 of our seasonal models are 0.8259 in spring, 0.7818 in summer, 0.8407 in autumn, and 0.7689 in winter. Also, the seasonal models in summer and autumn behave better than those in spring and winter. The comparison between seasonal and yearly models further validates the specific seasonal pattern of auxiliary variables of the GWR model in the YRD. We also stress the importance of key variables and propose a selection process in the AOD-PM2.5 model. Our work validates the significance of proper auxiliary variables in modelling the AOD-PM2.5 relationships and

  19. Comparison of spatiotemporal prediction models of daily exposure of individuals to ambient nitrogen dioxide and ozone in Montreal, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buteau, Stephane; Hatzopoulou, Marianne; Crouse, Dan L; Smargiassi, Audrey; Burnett, Richard T; Logan, Travis; Cavellin, Laure Deville; Goldberg, Mark S

    2017-07-01

    In previous studies investigating the short-term health effects of ambient air pollution the exposure metric that is often used is the daily average across monitors, thus assuming that all individuals have the same daily exposure. Studies that incorporate space-time exposures of individuals are essential to further our understanding of the short-term health effects of ambient air pollution. As part of a longitudinal cohort study of the acute effects of air pollution that incorporated subject-specific information and medical histories of subjects throughout the follow-up, the purpose of this study was to develop and compare different prediction models using data from fixed-site monitors and other monitoring campaigns to estimate daily, spatially-resolved concentrations of ozone (O 3 ) and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) of participants' residences in Montreal, 1991-2002. We used the following methods to predict spatially-resolved daily concentrations of O 3 and NO 2 for each geographic region in Montreal (defined by three-character postal code areas): (1) assigning concentrations from the nearest monitor; (2) spatial interpolation using inverse-distance weighting; (3) back-extrapolation from a land-use regression model from a dense monitoring survey, and; (4) a combination of a land-use and Bayesian maximum entropy model. We used a variety of indices of agreement to compare estimates of exposure assigned from the different methods, notably scatterplots of pairwise predictions, distribution of differences and computation of the absolute agreement intraclass correlation (ICC). For each pairwise prediction, we also produced maps of the ICCs by these regions indicating the spatial variability in the degree of agreement. We found some substantial differences in agreement across pairs of methods in daily mean predicted concentrations of O 3 and NO 2 . On a given day and postal code area the difference in the concentration assigned could be as high as 131ppb for O 3 and 108ppb

  20. Socio-Demographic and Lifestyle-Related Characteristics Associated with Self-Reported Any, Daily and Occasional Smoking during Pregnancy

    OpenAIRE

    Baron, Ruth; Manni?n, Judith; de Jonge, Ank; Heymans, Martijn W.; Klomp, Trudy; Hutton, Eileen K.; Brug, Johannes

    2013-01-01

    Smoking during pregnancy is a risk factor for various adverse birth outcomes. In order to develop effective interventions, insight is needed into the characteristics associated with pregnant women who smoke. Unknown is whether these characteristics differ for women who smoke daily and women who smoke occasionally. Our study sample, drawn from the DELIVER study (Sept 2009-March 2011), consisted of 6107 pregnant women in primary care in the Netherlands who were up to 34 weeks pregnant. The asso...

  1. Simulation of daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations within the Cedar River Basin, Iowa, using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Daniel E.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, conducted a study to examine techniques for estimation of daily streamflows using hydrological models and statistical methods. This report focuses on the use of a hydrologic model, the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, to estimate daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, physically based, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on surface-water runoff and general basin hydrology. The Cedar River Basin was selected to construct a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model that simulates the period from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010. The calibration period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004, and the validation periods were from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010 and January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A Geographic Information System tool was used to delineate the Cedar River Basin and subbasins for the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and to derive parameters based on the physical geographical features. Calibration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was completed using a U.S. Geological Survey calibration software tool. The main objective of the calibration was to match the daily streamflow simulated by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model with streamflow measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. The Cedar River Basin daily streamflow model performed with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.82 to 0.33 during the calibration period, and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.77 to -0.04 during the validation period. The Cedar River Basin model is meeting the criteria of greater than 0.50 Nash-Sutcliffe and is a good fit for streamflow conditions for the calibration period at all but one location, Austin, Minnesota

  2. Changes in daily occupations and the meaning of work for three women caring for relatives post-stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dongen, Isabella; Josephsson, Staffan; Ekstam, Lisa

    2014-09-01

    This qualitative study explored how some working Austrians experienced and coped with changes in their daily occupations after becoming informal carers of persons who had had a stroke. The study provides insights into the working carers' occupational experiences and strategies during a period of pronounced life changes. Three participants, who were employed in full- or part-time work, as well as being informal carers of persons who had had a stroke, were interviewed on two occasions. The data from these interviews were analysed using Interpretative Phenomenological Analyses. Carers found themselves in an ongoing process, ranging from the disruption of daily occupations to their eventual restructure. First, the stroke led to involuntary changes in the carers' daily life, which resulted in challenges in their own, and in shared, occupations. Second, carers actively changed their values and performance of occupations, which appeared to be a strategy to shape their well-being. Paid work was found to be a stabilizing and balancing occupation, which contributed to coping and the well-being of carers. The authors' findings demonstrate the benefits of paid work and engagement in meaningful occupation for the carers' well-being. These results should encourage occupational therapists to be sensitive to the complexity of the lives of working informal carers.

  3. Modelling the Growth and Volatility in Daily International Mass Tourism to Peru

    OpenAIRE

    Jose Angelo Divino; Michael McAleer

    2009-01-01

    Peru is a South American country that is divided into two parts by the Andes Mountains. The rich historical, cultural and geographic diversity has led to the inclusion of ten Peruvian sites on UNESCO’s World Heritage List. For the potential negative impacts of mass tourism on the environment, and hence on future international tourism demand, to be managed appropriately require modelling growth rates and volatility adequately. The paper models the growth rate and volatility (or the variability...

  4. An Evaluation of Anxiety Sensitivity, Emotional Dysregulation, and Negative Affectivity among Daily Cigarette Smokers: Relation to Smoking Motives and Barriers to Quitting

    OpenAIRE

    Gonzalez, Adam; Zvolensky, Michael J.; Vujanovic, Anka A.; Leyro, Teresa M.; Marshall, Erin C.

    2008-01-01

    The present investigation evaluated the relations between anxiety sensitivity and motivational bases of cigarette smoking, as well as barriers to quitting smoking, above and beyond concurrent substance use, negative affectivity, and emotional dysregulation among a community sample of 189 daily cigarette smokers (46% women; Mage = 24.97 years, SD = 9.78). Results indicated that anxiety sensitivity was significantly related to coping, addictive, and habitual smoking motives, as well as greater ...

  5. A population based statistical model for daily geometric variations in the thorax

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Szeto, Yenny Z.; Witte, Marnix G.; van Herk, Marcel; Sonke, Jan-Jakob

    2017-01-01

    To develop a population based statistical model of the systematic interfraction geometric variations between the planning CT and first treatment week of lung cancer patients for inclusion as uncertainty term in future probabilistic planning. Deformable image registrations between the planning CT and

  6. Modelling erosion on a daily basis, an adaptation of the MMF approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shrestha, Dhruba Pikha; Jetten, Victor G.

    2018-01-01

    Effect of soil erosion causing negative impact on ecosystem services and food security is well known. On the other hand there can be yearly variation of total precipitation received in an area, with the presence of extreme rains. To assess annual erosion rates various empirical models have been

  7. Linear genetic programming for time-series modelling of daily flow rate

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    currents in a tide dominated area; J. Engineering for the. Maritime Environment 221 147–163. Charhate S B, Deo M C and Londhe S N 2008 Inverse modelling to derive wind parameters from wave measure- ments; Applied Ocean Research 30(2) 120–129. Cigizoglu H K and Kisi O 2000 Flow prediction by two back.

  8. Daily Reservoir Inflow Forecasting using Deep Learning with Downscaled Multi-General Circulation Models (GCMs) Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, D.; Fang, N. Z.

    2017-12-01

    Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW) has a population of over 7 million depending on many water supply reservoirs. The reservoir inflow plays a vital role in water supply decision making process and long-term strategic planning for the region. This paper demonstrates a method of utilizing deep learning algorithms and multi-general circulation model (GCM) platform to forecast reservoir inflow for three reservoirs within the DFW: Eagle Mountain Lake, Lake Benbrook and Lake Arlington. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition was firstly employed to extract the features, which were then represented by the deep belief networks (DBNs). The first 75 years of the historical data (1940 -2015) were used to train the model, while the last 2 years of the data (2016-2017) were used for the model validation. The weights of each DBN gained from the training process were then applied to establish a neural network (NN) that was able to forecast reservoir inflow. Feature predictors used for the forecasting model were generated from weather forecast results of the downscaled multi-GCM platform for the North Texas region. By comparing root mean square error (RMSE) and mean bias error (MBE) with the observed data, the authors found that the deep learning with downscaled multi-GCM platform is an effective approach in the reservoir inflow forecasting.

  9. A Comparison of Three Models to Predict Liquidity Flows between Banks Based on Daily Payments Transactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Triepels, Ron; Daniels, Hennie

    2016-01-01

    The analysis of payment data has become an important task for operators and overseers of financial market infrastructures. Payment data provide an accurate description of how banks manage their liquidity over time. In this paper we compare three models to predict future liquidity flows from payment

  10. A Comparison of Three Models to Predict Liquidity Flows between Banks Based on Daily Payments Transactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.J.M.A. Triepels (Ron); H.A.M. Daniels (Hennie)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThe analysis of payment data has become an important task for operators and overseers of financial market infrastructures. Payment data provide an accurate description of how banks manage their liquidity over time. In this paper we compare three models to predict future liquidity flows

  11. Assessment of a conceptual hydrological model and artificial neural networks for daily outflows forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rezaeianzadeh, M.; Stein, A.; Tabari, H.; Abghari, H.; Jalalkamali, N.; Hosseinipour, E.Z.; Singh, V.P.

    2013-01-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are used by hydrologists and engineers to forecast flows at the outlet of a watershed. They are employed in particular where hydrological data are limited. Despite these developments, practitioners still prefer conventional hydrological models. This study applied

  12. Video Modeling for Teaching Daily Living Skills to Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder: A Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meister, Christine; Salls, Joyce

    2015-01-01

    This pilot study investigated the efficacy of point-of-view video modeling as an intervention strategy to improve self-help skills in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). A single-subject A-B design was implemented with eight school-aged children ages 7.5 years to 13.5 years. Six of the students participated in general education classes…

  13. Bayesian estimation of extreme flood quantiles using a rainfall-runoff model and a stochastic daily rainfall generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Veber; Fernandes, Wilson

    2017-11-01

    Extreme flood estimation has been a key research topic in hydrological sciences. Reliable estimates of such events are necessary as structures for flood conveyance are continuously evolving in size and complexity and, as a result, their failure-associated hazards become more and more pronounced. Due to this fact, several estimation techniques intended to improve flood frequency analysis and reducing uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation have been addressed in the literature in the last decades. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework for the indirect estimation of extreme flood quantiles from rainfall-runoff models. In the proposed approach, an ensemble of long daily rainfall series is simulated with a stochastic generator, which models extreme rainfall amounts with an upper-bounded distribution function, namely, the 4-parameter lognormal model. The rationale behind the generation model is that physical limits for rainfall amounts, and consequently for floods, exist and, by imposing an appropriate upper bound for the probabilistic model, more plausible estimates can be obtained for those rainfall quantiles with very low exceedance probabilities. Daily rainfall time series are converted into streamflows by routing each realization of the synthetic ensemble through a conceptual hydrologic model, the Rio Grande rainfall-runoff model. Calibration of parameters is performed through a nonlinear regression model, by means of the specification of a statistical model for the residuals that is able to accommodate autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and nonnormality. By combining the outlined steps in a Bayesian structure of analysis, one is able to properly summarize the resulting uncertainty and estimating more accurate credible intervals for a set of flood quantiles of interest. The method for extreme flood indirect estimation was applied to the American river catchment, at the Folsom dam, in the state of California, USA. Results show that most floods

  14. Beneficial Effect of Brewers' Yeast Extract on Daily Activity in a Murine Model of Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takashi Takahashi

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to assess the effect of Brewers' yeast extract (BYE on daily activity in a mouse model of chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS. CFS was induced by repeated injection of Brucella abortus (BA antigen every 2 weeks. BYE was orally administered to mice in a dose of 2 g per kg per day for 2 weeks before injecting BA and for 4 weeks thereafter. We evaluated daily running activity in mice receiving BYE as compared with that in untreated mice. Weekly variation of body weight (BW and survival in both groups was monitored during the observation period. Spleen weight (SW, SW/BW ratio, percent splenic follicular area and expression levels of interferon-γ (IFN-γ and interleukin-10 (IL-10 mRNA in spleen were determined in both groups at the time of sacrifice. The daily activity during 2 weeks after the second BA injection was significantly higher in the treated group than in the control. There was no difference in BW between both groups through the experimental course. Two mice in the control died 2 and 7 days after the second injection, whereas no mice in the treated group died. Significantly decreased SW and SW/BW ratio were observed in the treated mice together with elevation of splenic follicular area. There were suppressed IFN-γ and IL-10 mRNA levels in spleens from the treated mice. Our results suggest that BYE might have a protective effect on the marked reduction in activity following repeated BA injection via normalization of host immune responses.

  15. Inner power, physical strength and existential well-being in daily life: relatives' experiences of receiving soft tissue massage in palliative home care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronfalk, Berit Seiger; Strang, Peter; Ternestedt, Britt-Marie

    2009-08-01

    This article explores relatives' experiences of receiving soft tissue massage as a support supplement while caring for a dying family member at home. In palliative home care, relatives play an important role as carers to seriously ill and dying family members. To improve their quality of life, different support strategies are of importance. Complementary methods, such as soft tissue massage have become an appreciated supplement for these patients. However, only few studies focus on relatives experiences of receiving soft tissue massage as a supplemental support. Qualitative design Nineteen relatives received soft tissue massage (hand or foot) nine times (25 minutes) in their homes. Open-ended semi-structured tape-recorded interviews were conducted once per relative after the nine times of massage, using qualitative content analysis. Soft tissue massage gave the relatives' feelings of 'being cared for', 'body vitality' and 'peace of mind'. For a while, they put worries of daily life aside as they just experienced 'being'. During massage, it became apparent that body and mind is constituted of an indestructible completeness. The overarching theme was 'inner power, physical strength and existential well-being in their daily lives'. All relatives experienced soft tissue massage positively, although they were under considerable stress. Soft tissue massage could be an option to comfort and support relatives in palliative home care. In palliative nursing care, soft tissue massage could present a worthy supplement in supporting caring relatives.

  16. Making Daily Mobility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ole B.; Wind, Simon

    elucidate aspects of urban everyday mobility that can be utilized in policy and planning perspectives. This knowledge can aid construction of generalized qualitative scenarios that together with quantitative transport models can serve as wider knowledge foundation in decision making process.......In 2012 the average daily transportation distance for every Dane were 40 km (TU Data). Realising how much of life is spend thinking about, planning and performing mobility practices it becomes evident that it is much more than an instrumental physical phenomenon – it has great repercussions on life......, social networks, understanding of places and ultimately ourselves and others. To successfully accomplish everyday life, households have to cope with large number of different activities and mobility in relation to their children, work, social life, obligations, expectations, needs and wishes. Drawing...

  17. Daily Based Morgan–Morgan–Finney (DMMF Model: A Spatially Distributed Conceptual Soil Erosion Model to Simulate Complex Soil Surface Configurations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwanghun Choi

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present the Daily based Morgan–Morgan–Finney model. The main processes in this model are based on the Morgan–Morgan–Finney soil erosion model, and it is suitable for estimating surface runoff and sediment redistribution patterns in seasonal climate regions with complex surface configurations. We achieved temporal flexibility by utilizing daily time steps, which is suitable for regions with concentrated seasonal rainfall. We introduce the proportion of impervious surface cover as a parameter to reflect its impacts on soil erosion through blocking water infiltration and protecting the soil from detachment. Also, several equations and sequences of sub-processes are modified from the previous model to better represent physical processes. From the sensitivity analysis using the Sobol’ method, the DMMF model shows the rational response to the input parameters which is consistent with the result from the previous versions. To evaluate the model performance, we applied the model to two potato fields in South Korea that had complex surface configurations using plastic covered ridges at various temporal periods during the monsoon season. Our new model shows acceptable performance for runoff and the sediment loss estimation ( NSE ≥ 0.63 , | PBIAS | ≤ 17.00 , and RSR ≤ 0.57 . Our findings demonstrate that the DMMF model is able to predict the surface runoff and sediment redistribution patterns for cropland with complex surface configurations.

  18. Performance Evaluation of Linear (ARMA and Threshold Nonlinear (TAR Time Series Models in Daily River Flow Modeling (Case Study: Upstream Basin Rivers of Zarrineh Roud Dam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farshad Fathian

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Time series models are generally categorized as a data-driven method or mathematically-based method. These models are known as one of the most important tools in modeling and forecasting of hydrological processes, which are used to design and scientific management of water resources projects. On the other hand, a better understanding of the river flow process is vital for appropriate streamflow modeling and forecasting. One of the main concerns of hydrological time series modeling is whether the hydrologic variable is governed by the linear or nonlinear models through time. Although the linear time series models have been widely applied in hydrology research, there has been some recent increasing interest in the application of nonlinear time series approaches. The threshold autoregressive (TAR method is frequently applied in modeling the mean (first order moment of financial and economic time series. Thise type of the model has not received considerable attention yet from the hydrological community. The main purposes of this paper are to analyze and to discuss stochastic modeling of daily river flow time series of the study area using linear (such as ARMA: autoregressive integrated moving average and non-linear (such as two- and three- regime TAR models. Material and Methods: The study area has constituted itself of four sub-basins namely, Saghez Chai, Jighato Chai, Khorkhoreh Chai and Sarogh Chai from west to east, respectively, which discharge water into the Zarrineh Roud dam reservoir. River flow time series of 6 hydro-gauge stations located on upstream basin rivers of Zarrineh Roud dam (located in the southern part of Urmia Lake basin were considered to model purposes. All the data series used here to start from January 1, 1997, and ends until December 31, 2011. In this study, the daily river flow data from January 01 1997 to December 31 2009 (13 years were chosen for calibration and data for January 01 2010 to December 31 2011

  19. A computer tool for daily application of the linear quadratic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macias Jaen, J.; Galan Montenegro, P.; Bodineau Gil, C.; Wals Zurita, A.; Serradilla Gil, A.M.

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to indicate the relevance of the criteria A.S.A.R.A. (As Short As Reasonably Achievable) in the optimization of a fractionated radiotherapy schedule and the presentation of a Windows computer program as an easy tool in order to: Evaluate the Biological Equivalent Dose (BED) in a fractionated schedule; Make comparison between different treatments; Compensate a treatment when a delay has been happened with a version of the Linear Quadratic model that has into account the factor of accelerated repopulation. Conclusions: Delays in the normal radiotherapy schedule are items that have to be controlled as much as possible because it is able to be a very important parameter in order to release a good application of treatment, principally when the tumour is fast growing. It is necessary to evaluate them. ASARA criteria is useful to indicate the relevance of this aspect. Also, computer tools like this one could help us in order to achieve this. (author)

  20. Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jordan R.; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Kumar, Sujay V.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on a land surface model (LSM) apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. In the West, higher latent heat fluxes prevailed, which enhanced the rates of evapotranspiration and soil moisture depletion in the LSM. By late Summer and Autumn, both the average sensible and latent heat fluxes increased in the West as a result of the more rapid soil drying and higher coverage of GVF. The impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP was also examined for a single severe weather case study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate coupled LIS/WRF model simulations were made for the 17 July 2010 severe weather event in the Upper Midwest using the NCEP and SPoRT GVFs, with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and

  1. Modeling daily soil temperature over diverse climate conditions in Iran—a comparison of multiple linear regression and support vector regression techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delbari, Masoomeh; Sharifazari, Salman; Mohammadi, Ehsan

    2018-02-01

    The knowledge of soil temperature at different depths is important for agricultural industry and for understanding climate change. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of a support vector regression (SVR)-based model in estimating daily soil temperature at 10, 30 and 100 cm depth at different climate conditions over Iran. The obtained results were compared to those obtained from a more classical multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The correlation sensitivity for the input combinations and periodicity effect were also investigated. Climatic data used as inputs to the models were minimum and maximum air temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, dew point, and the atmospheric pressure (reduced to see level), collected from five synoptic stations Kerman, Ahvaz, Tabriz, Saghez, and Rasht located respectively in the hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, Mediterranean, and hyper-humid climate conditions. According to the results, the performance of both MLR and SVR models was quite well at surface layer, i.e., 10-cm depth. However, SVR performed better than MLR in estimating soil temperature at deeper layers especially 100 cm depth. Moreover, both models performed better in humid climate condition than arid and hyper-arid areas. Further, adding a periodicity component into the modeling process considerably improved the models' performance especially in the case of SVR.

  2. Analysis and modeling of daily air pollutants in the city of Ruse, Bulgaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheleva, I.; Veleva, E.; Filipova, M.

    2017-10-01

    The city of Ruse is situated in the north-eastern part of Bulgaria. The northern boundary of Ruse region goes along the Danube river valley and coincides with the state boundary of the Republic of Bulgaria and the Republic of Romania. The climate of the region of Ruse is temperate continental, characterized by cold winters and dry, warm summers. Spring and autumn are short. In our previous work we studied information from 40 years period measurements [6] of temperature, air humidity and atmospheric pressure in Ruse region, Bulgaria. It was shown that mean values of the temperature in Ruse region are slightly goes up for the last 10 years and they are bigger than the mean temperature for Bulgaria. This could be a proof for climate change in Ruse region of Bulgaria. The most variable atmospheric parameter is air humidity during the spring seasons. The hardest change of temperature and atmospheric pressure is during January. Temperature has biggest change in January and smallest - in July. Humidity has biggest change in April and smallest - in October. Atmospheric pressure has biggest change in January and smallest - in July [5]. Air pollution maybe affects temperature, atmospheric pressure and humidity. All this in our opinion may be a reason for the increase in average temperatures for the period examined. This paper is devoted to examine air pollution in the Ruse region. It presents a statistical analysis of the level of air pollution in Ruse on data from the monitoring stations in the city. The measurements cover the period from 2015 including up to now. For the most dangerous pollutant PM10 we create an ARIMA model which is in a good agreement with the PM10 measurements.

  3. Evaluation of statistical and rainfall-runoff models for predicting historical daily streamflow time series in the Des Moines and Iowa River watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, William H.; Knight, Rodney R.; Eash, David A.; Kasey J. Hutchinson,; Linhart, S. Mike; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Over, Thomas M.; Kiang, Julie E.

    2015-08-24

    Daily records of streamflow are essential to understanding hydrologic systems and managing the interactions between human and natural systems. Many watersheds and locations lack streamgages to provide accurate and reliable records of daily streamflow. In such ungaged watersheds, statistical tools and rainfall-runoff models are used to estimate daily streamflow. Previous work compared 19 different techniques for predicting daily streamflow records in the southeastern United States. Here, five of the better-performing methods are compared in a different hydroclimatic region of the United States, in Iowa. The methods fall into three classes: (1) drainage-area ratio methods, (2) nonlinear spatial interpolations using flow duration curves, and (3) mechanistic rainfall-runoff models. The first two classes are each applied with nearest-neighbor and map-correlated index streamgages. Using a threefold validation and robust rank-based evaluation, the methods are assessed for overall goodness of fit of the hydrograph of daily streamflow, the ability to reproduce a daily, no-fail storage-yield curve, and the ability to reproduce key streamflow statistics. As in the Southeast study, a nonlinear spatial interpolation of daily streamflow using flow duration curves is found to be a method with the best predictive accuracy. Comparisons with previous work in Iowa show that the accuracy of mechanistic models with at-site calibration is substantially degraded in the ungaged framework.

  4. Development of a stacked ensemble model for forecasting and analyzing daily average PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Binxu; Chen, Jianguo

    2018-04-18

    A stacked ensemble model is developed for forecasting and analyzing the daily average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in Beijing, China. Special feature extraction procedures, including those of simplification, polynomial, transformation and combination, are conducted before modeling to identify potentially significant features based on an exploratory data analysis. Stability feature selection and tree-based feature selection methods are applied to select important variables and evaluate the degrees of feature importance. Single models including LASSO, Adaboost, XGBoost and multi-layer perceptron optimized by the genetic algorithm (GA-MLP) are established in the level 0 space and are then integrated by support vector regression (SVR) in the level 1 space via stacked generalization. A feature importance analysis reveals that nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations measured from the city of Zhangjiakou are taken as the most important elements of pollution factors for forecasting PM 2.5 concentrations. Local extreme wind speeds and maximal wind speeds are considered to extend the most effects of meteorological factors to the cross-regional transportation of contaminants. Pollutants found in the cities of Zhangjiakou and Chengde have a stronger impact on air quality in Beijing than other surrounding factors. Our model evaluation shows that the ensemble model generally performs better than a single nonlinear forecasting model when applied to new data with a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 0.90 and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 23.69μg/m 3 . For single pollutant grade recognition, the proposed model performs better when applied to days characterized by good air quality than when applied to days registering high levels of pollution. The overall classification accuracy level is 73.93%, with most misclassifications made among adjacent categories. The results demonstrate the interpretability and generalizability of

  5. Gridded daily Indian monsoon rainfall for 14 seasons: Merged ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Indian monsoon is an important component of earth's climate system. Daily rainfall data for longer period is vital to study components and processes related to Indian monsoon. Daily observed gridded rainfall data covering both land and adjoining oceanic regions are required for numerical model vali- dation and model ...

  6. A hierarchical model of daily stream temperature using air-water temperature synchronization, autocorrelation, and time lags

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin H. Letcher

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Water temperature is a primary driver of stream ecosystems and commonly forms the basis of stream classifications. Robust models of stream temperature are critical as the climate changes, but estimating daily stream temperature poses several important challenges. We developed a statistical model that accounts for many challenges that can make stream temperature estimation difficult. Our model identifies the yearly period when air and water temperature are synchronized, accommodates hysteresis, incorporates time lags, deals with missing data and autocorrelation and can include external drivers. In a small stream network, the model performed well (RMSE = 0.59°C, identified a clear warming trend (0.63 °C decade−1 and a widening of the synchronized period (29 d decade−1. We also carefully evaluated how missing data influenced predictions. Missing data within a year had a small effect on performance (∼0.05% average drop in RMSE with 10% fewer days with data. Missing all data for a year decreased performance (∼0.6 °C jump in RMSE, but this decrease was moderated when data were available from other streams in the network.

  7. DAILY MEAL FREQUENCY OF SECONDARY SCHOOL STUDENTS FROM LJUBLJANA IN RELATION TO SOME OF THEIR OTHER NUTRITIONAL AND LIFE-STYLE CHARACTERISTICS AND BODY MASS INDEX – PRELIMINARY RESULTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mojca Gabrijelčič-Blenkuš

    2001-05-01

    Full Text Available Background. The recommended number of daily meals is three to five. The aim of this study was to establish the number of meals, daily consumed by secondary school students from Ljubljana, and the relationship with nutritional and other habits, including bad habits, demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the secondary school students and their body mass index.Methods. In 1999, an cross-section epidemiological study was performed on a proportional sample of 296 pupils attending the third class of Ljubljana secondary schools. The applied dietary data collection methods were the survey and the 24-hour dietary recall. The body mass index was calculated on the basis of the measured body height and body mass values. The Chi-square test, t-test, variance analysis and the multivariant linear regression method were used for the analysis.Results. The students consume 3.16 meals per day on average (boys 3.44, girls 2.87. The students who reported a smaller number of meals per day consume statistically significantly less fruit, vegetables, milk, milk products and fish. They take hot meals less frequently, consume less often all daily meals, their daily meals are of a poorer quality in respect to their composition, they eat less often their meals in a sitting position, they feel a greater difference in diet between working week days and weekends, their regular nourishment is more influenced by school obligations, they have poorer knowledge of healthy dietary practices, smoke more often, are less satisfied with their weight, are less physically active and girls sleep less at nights. The inverse proportional relationship between the number of daily meals and the body mass index was not statistically significant. The multivariant linear regression model explained the low variance percentage (R2 = 0.28.Conclusions. The average number of daily meals consumed by schoolboys is at the lower border of recommendations, while the average number of daily meals

  8. Abstinent adult daily smokers show reduced anticipatory but elevated saccade-related brain responses during a rewarded antisaccade task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geier, Charles F; Sweitzer, Maggie M; Denlinger, Rachel; Sparacino, Gina; Donny, Eric C

    2014-08-30

    Chronic smoking may result in reduced sensitivity to non-drug rewards (e.g., money), a phenomenon particularly salient during abstinence. During a quit attempt, this effect may contribute to biased decision-making (smoking>alternative reinforcers) and relapse. Although relevant for quitting, characterization of reduced reward function in abstinent smokers remains limited. Moreover, how attenuated reward function affects other brain systems supporting decision-making has not been established. Here, we use a rewarded antisaccade (rAS) task to characterize non-drug reward processing and its influence on inhibitory control, key elements underlying decision-making, in abstinent smokers vs. non-smokers. Abstinent (12-hours) adult daily smokers (N=23) and non-smokers (N=11) underwent fMRI while performing the rAS. Behavioral performances improved on reward vs. neutral trials. Smokers showed attenuated activation in ventral striatum during the reward cue and in superior precentral sulcus and posterior parietal cortex during response preparation, but greater responses during the saccade response in posterior cingulate and parietal cortices. Smokers' attenuated anticipatory responses suggest reduced motivation from monetary reward, while heightened activation during the saccade response suggests that additional circuitry may be engaged later to enhance inhibitory task performance. Overall, this preliminary study highlights group differences in decision-making components and the utility of the rAS to characterize these effects. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. STOCHASTIC CHARACTERISTICS AND MODELING OF RELATIVE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Test

    Results are highly accurate and promising for all models based on Lewis' criteria. ... hydrological cycle. Future increases in ... STOCHASTIC CHARACTERISTICS AND MODELING OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF OGUN BASIN, NIGERIA. 71 ...

  10. Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Jing-Cheng; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Yuefei; Zhang, Hua; Li, Zhong; Chen, Qiuwen

    2015-01-01

    Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. - Highlights: • We develop an improved hydrologic model considering the scaling effect of rainfall. • A

  11. Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Jing-Cheng [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Huang, Guohe, E-mail: huang@iseis.org [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Huang, Yuefei [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang, Hua [College of Science and Engineering, Texas A& M University — Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412-5797 (United States); Li, Zhong [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Chen, Qiuwen [Center for Eco-Environmental Research, Nanjing Hydraulics Research Institute, Nanjing 210029 (China)

    2015-08-15

    Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. - Highlights: • We develop an improved hydrologic model considering the scaling effect of rainfall. • A

  12. Relational models for knowledge sharing behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, N.I.; Berends, J.J.; Baalen, P.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we explore the relational dimension of knowledge sharing behavior by proposing a comprehensive theoretical framework for studying knowledge sharing in organizations. This theoretical framework originates from (Fiske, 1991) and (Fiske, 1992) Relational Models Theory (RMT). The RMT

  13. The perfectionism model of binge eating: testing unique contributions, mediating mechanisms, and cross-cultural similarities using a daily diary methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherry, Simon B; Sabourin, Brigitte C; Hall, Peter A; Hewitt, Paul L; Flett, Gordon L; Gralnick, Tara M

    2014-12-01

    The perfectionism model of binge eating (PMOBE) is an integrative model explaining the link between perfectionism and binge eating. This model proposes socially prescribed perfectionism confers risk for binge eating by generating exposure to 4 putative binge triggers: interpersonal discrepancies, low interpersonal esteem, depressive affect, and dietary restraint. The present study addresses important gaps in knowledge by testing if these 4 binge triggers uniquely predict changes in binge eating on a daily basis and if daily variations in each binge trigger mediate the link between socially prescribed perfectionism and daily binge eating. Analyses also tested if proposed mediational models generalized across Asian and European Canadians. The PMOBE was tested in 566 undergraduate women using a 7-day daily diary methodology. Depressive affect predicted binge eating, whereas anxious affect did not. Each binge trigger uniquely contributed to binge eating on a daily basis. All binge triggers except for dietary restraint mediated the relationship between socially prescribed perfectionism and change in daily binge eating. Results suggested cross-cultural similarities, with the PMOBE applying to both Asian and European Canadian women. The present study advances understanding of the personality traits and the contextual conditions accompanying binge eating and provides an important step toward improving treatments for people suffering from eating binges and associated negative consequences.

  14. Modelling and short-term forecasting of daily peak power demand in Victoria using two-dimensional wavelet based SDP models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Truong, Nguyen-Vu; Wang, Liuping; Wong, Peter K.C.

    2008-01-01

    Power demand forecasting is of vital importance to the management and planning of power system operations which include generation, transmission, distribution, as well as system's security analysis and economic pricing processes. This paper concerns the modeling and short-term forecast of daily peak power demand in the state of Victoria, Australia. In this study, a two-dimensional wavelet based state dependent parameter (SDP) modelling approach is used to produce a compact mathematical model for this complex nonlinear dynamic system. In this approach, a nonlinear system is expressed by a set of linear regressive input and output terms (state variables) multiplied by the respective state dependent parameters that carry the nonlinearities in the form of 2-D wavelet series expansions. This model is identified based on historical data, descriptively representing the relationship and interaction between various components which affect the peak power demand of a certain day. The identified model has been used to forecast daily peak power demand in the state of Victoria, Australia in the time period from the 9th of August 2007 to the 24th of August 2007. With a MAPE (mean absolute prediction error) of 1.9%, it has clearly implied the effectiveness of the identified model. (author)

  15. Modelling a model?!! Prediction of observed and calculated daily pan evaporation in New Mexico, U.S.A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beriro, D. J.; Abrahart, R. J.; Nathanail, C. P.

    2012-04-01

    Data-driven modelling is most commonly used to develop predictive models that will simulate natural processes. This paper, in contrast, uses Gene Expression Programming (GEP) to construct two alternative models of different pan evaporation estimations by means of symbolic regression: a simulator, a model of a real-world process developed on observed records, and an emulator, an imitator of some other model developed on predicted outputs calculated by that source model. The solutions are compared and contrasted for the purposes of determining whether any substantial differences exist between either option. This analysis will address recent arguments over the impact of using downloaded hydrological modelling datasets originating from different initial sources i.e. observed or calculated. These differences can be easily be overlooked by modellers, resulting in a model of a model developed on estimations derived from deterministic empirical equations and producing exceptionally high goodness-of-fit. This paper uses different lines-of-evidence to evaluate model output and in so doing paves the way for a new protocol in machine learning applications. Transparent modelling tools such as symbolic regression offer huge potential for explaining stochastic processes, however, the basic tenets of data quality and recourse to first principles with regard to problem understanding should not be trivialised. GEP is found to be an effective tool for the prediction of observed and calculated pan evaporation, with results supported by an understanding of the records, and of the natural processes concerned, evaluated using one-at-a-time response function sensitivity analysis. The results show that both architectures and response functions are very similar, implying that previously observed differences in goodness-of-fit can be explained by whether models are applied to observed or calculated data.

  16. The daily gluten intake in relatives of patients with coeliac disease compared with that of the general Dutch population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    vanOverbeek, FM; UilDieterman, IGA; Mol, IW; KohlerBrands, L; Heymans, HSA; Mulder, CJJ

    1997-01-01

    Background: It has been suggested that the amount of gluten intake in populations offers an explanation for differences in the epidemiology of coeliac disease. Investigations into first-degree relatives of coeliac disease patients have often shown that relatives exhibit intermediate features of

  17. Health beliefs affect the correct replacement of daily disposable contact lenses: Predicting compliance with the Health Belief Model and the Theory of Planned Behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livi, Stefano; Zeri, Fabrizio; Baroni, Rossella

    2017-02-01

    To assess the compliance of Daily Disposable Contact Lenses (DDCLs) wearers with replacing lenses at a manufacturer-recommended replacement frequency. To evaluate the ability of two different Health Behavioural Theories (HBT), The Health Belief Model (HBM) and The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), in predicting compliance. A multi-centre survey was conducted using a questionnaire completed anonymously by contact lens wearers during the purchase of DDCLs. Three hundred and fifty-four questionnaires were returned. The survey comprised 58.5% females and 41.5% males (mean age 34±12years). Twenty-three percent of respondents were non-compliant with manufacturer-recommended replacement frequency (re-using DDCLs at least once). The main reason for re-using DDCLs was "to save money" (35%). Predictions of compliance behaviour (past behaviour or future intentions) on the basis of the two HBT was investigated through logistic regression analysis: both TPB factors (subjective norms and perceived behavioural control) were significant (pbehaviour and future intentions) and perceived benefit (only for past behaviour) as significant factors (pbehavioural control of daily replacement (behavioural control) are of paramount importance in improving compliance. With reference to the HBM, it is important to warn DDCLs wearers of the severity of a contact-lens-related eye infection, and to underline the possibility of its prevention. Copyright © 2016 British Contact Lens Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Calibration and Evaluation of Different Estimation Models of Daily Solar Radiation in Seasonally and Annual Time Steps in Shiraz Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Reza Fooladmand

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Solar radiation on the earth surface has a wide range of applications in hydrology, agriculture and meteorology. Solar radiation is an important parameter of estimated models of reference crop potential evapotranspiration such as the Penman–Monteith equation. Also, total sunshine hours are one of the most important factors affecting climate and environment, and its long-term variation is of much concern in climate studies. Reference crop potential evapotranspiration is one of the most important parts of water cycle in the nature but, direct measurement of this crop parameter is so difficult and not practical. Therefore, equations that can estimate the value of evapotranspiration only by using meteorological data are necessary. As mentioned before, the Penman–Monteith equation can be used for estimating reference crop potential evapotranspiration, however this equation needs solar radiation data, and the measurement of solar radiation is done in a limited numbers of weather stations in Iran, and also in Fars province, south of Iran. Since, the measurement of solar radiation is expensive, therefore many models have been derived for its estimation in different climates of the world., Many investigators also have been tried to estimate solar radiation for different locations of the world based on more simple measured weather data such as air temperature (minimum, maximum or mean and sunshine hours. Hence, the derived equations for estimating solar radiation based on other weather data can be used for estimating reference crop potential evapotranspiration with the Penman–Monteith equation. Materials and Methods: In this study, solar radiation was estimated in Shiraz, central part of the Fars province in south of Iran. For this purpose, the daily measured of solar radiation data in Shiraz synoptic station were used. Also, other needed weather data were used. All available data was for the years 2006 to 2010. Measured data of years

  19. A Bayesian modelling method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from global climate models and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Schepen

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall forecasts are an integral part of hydrological forecasting systems at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In seasonal forecasting, global climate models (GCMs are now the go-to source for rainfall forecasts. For hydrological applications however, GCM forecasts are often biased and unreliable in uncertainty spread, and calibration is therefore required before use. There are sophisticated statistical techniques for calibrating monthly and seasonal aggregations of the forecasts. However, calibration of seasonal forecasts at the daily time step typically uses very simple statistical methods or climate analogue methods. These methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve unbiased, reliable and coherent forecasts of daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. In this study, we propose and evaluate a Rainfall Post-Processing method for Seasonal forecasts (RPP-S, which is based on the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach for calibrating daily forecasts and the Schaake Shuffle for connecting the daily ensemble members of different lead times. We apply the method to post-process ACCESS-S forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments across Australia and for 12 initialisation dates. RPP-S significantly reduces bias in raw forecasts and improves both skill and reliability. RPP-S forecasts are also more skilful and reliable than forecasts derived from ACCESS-S forecasts that have been post-processed using quantile mapping, especially for monthly and seasonal accumulations. Several opportunities to improve the robustness and skill of RPP-S are identified. The new RPP-S post-processed forecasts will be used in ensemble sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow applications.

  20. A Bayesian modelling method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from global climate models and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schepen, Andrew; Zhao, Tongtiegang; Wang, Quan J.; Robertson, David E.

    2018-03-01

    Rainfall forecasts are an integral part of hydrological forecasting systems at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In seasonal forecasting, global climate models (GCMs) are now the go-to source for rainfall forecasts. For hydrological applications however, GCM forecasts are often biased and unreliable in uncertainty spread, and calibration is therefore required before use. There are sophisticated statistical techniques for calibrating monthly and seasonal aggregations of the forecasts. However, calibration of seasonal forecasts at the daily time step typically uses very simple statistical methods or climate analogue methods. These methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve unbiased, reliable and coherent forecasts of daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. In this study, we propose and evaluate a Rainfall Post-Processing method for Seasonal forecasts (RPP-S), which is based on the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach for calibrating daily forecasts and the Schaake Shuffle for connecting the daily ensemble members of different lead times. We apply the method to post-process ACCESS-S forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments across Australia and for 12 initialisation dates. RPP-S significantly reduces bias in raw forecasts and improves both skill and reliability. RPP-S forecasts are also more skilful and reliable than forecasts derived from ACCESS-S forecasts that have been post-processed using quantile mapping, especially for monthly and seasonal accumulations. Several opportunities to improve the robustness and skill of RPP-S are identified. The new RPP-S post-processed forecasts will be used in ensemble sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow applications.

  1. Mucociliary clearance and its relation with the level of physical activity in daily life in healthy smokers and nonsmokers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Proença

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: To investigate the relationship between mucociliary transport and physical activity in daily life (PADL in smokers and nonsmokers. Methods: Fifty-two current smokers were submitted to an assessment of mucociliary transport (saccharin transit time, STT, carbon monoxide levels in the exhaled air, lung function and smoking history. In addition, subjects kept a pedometer worn at the waist for six days in order to determine their level of PADL (steps/day. The tests were also performed on 30 matched healthy nonsmokers who served as control group. Results: Light smokers (≤15 cigarettes/day had a STT of 9 (7–11 min (median [confidence interval], which was similar to nonsmokers (8 [8–11] min; p = 0.8. Both moderate (16–25 cigarettes/day and heavy (>25 cigarettes/day smokers had a significantly higher STT (13 [11–17] min and 13 [10–21] min, respectively than nonsmokers and light smokers (p  0.05 for all. In the general group of smokers, STT was not significantly correlated with PADL, pack/years index, years of smoking or age (r  0.09 for all. There was significant negative correlation between STT and PADL only in light smokers (r = −0.55; p = 0.02 and nonsmokers (r = −0.42; p = 0.02, but not in moderate and heavy smokers. Conclusion: In light smokers and non-smokers, better mucociliary function is associated to higher daily physical activity level, as opposed to the decreased mucociliary function observed in smokers, i.e., those with moderate and heavy cigarette consumption. Resumo: Objetivos: Investigar a relação entre o transporte mucociliar e a atividade física na vida diária (AFVD em fumantes e não fumantes. Métodos: Cinquenta e dois fumantes foram submetidos à avaliação do transporte mucociliar (Tempo de Trânsito de Sacarina, TTS, dos níveis de monóxido de carbono no ar expirado, da função pulmonar e do hist

  2. Development of total maximum daily loads for bacteria impaired watershed using the comprehensive hydrology and water quality simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sang M; Brannan, Kevin M; Zeckoski, Rebecca W; Benham, Brian L

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this study was to develop bacteria total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) for the Hardware River watershed in the Commonwealth of Virginia, USA. The TMDL program is an integrated watershed management approach required by the Clean Water Act. The TMDLs were developed to meet Virginia's water quality standard for bacteria at the time, which stated that the calendar-month geometric mean concentration of Escherichia coli should not exceed 126 cfu/100 mL, and that no single sample should exceed a concentration of 235 cfu/100 mL. The bacteria impairment TMDLs were developed using the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF). The hydrology and water quality components of HSPF were calibrated and validated using data from the Hardware River watershed to ensure that the model adequately simulated runoff and bacteria concentrations. The calibrated and validated HSPF model was used to estimate the contributions from the various bacteria sources in the Hardware River watershed to the in-stream concentration. Bacteria loads were estimated through an extensive source characterization process. Simulation results for existing conditions indicated that the majority of the bacteria came from livestock and wildlife direct deposits and pervious lands. Different source reduction scenarios were evaluated to identify scenarios that meet both the geometric mean and single sample maximum E. coli criteria with zero violations. The resulting scenarios required extreme and impractical reductions from livestock and wildlife sources. Results from studies similar to this across Virginia partially contributed to a reconsideration of the standard's applicability to TMDL development.

  3. Misclassification of fourth-grade children's participation in school-provided meals based on parental responses relative to administrative daily records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baxter, Suzanne Domel; Paxton-Aiken, Amy E; Royer, Julie A; Hitchcock, David B; Guinn, Caroline H; Finney, Christopher J

    2014-09-01

    Although many studies have relied on parental responses concerning children's school-meal participation, few studies have evaluated parental response accuracy. We investigated misclassification of fourth-grade children's participation in school-meal programs based on parental responses relative to administrative daily records using cross-sectional study data collected for 3 school years (2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07) for 1,100 fourth-grade children (87% black; 52% girls) from 18 schools total in one district. Parents reported children's usual school-meal participation on paper consent forms. The district provided administrative daily records of individual children's school-meal participation. Researchers measured children's weight and height. "Usual participation" in breakfast/lunch was defined as ≥50% of days. Parental responses misclassified 16.3%, 12.8%, 19.8%, and 4.7% of children for participation in breakfast, classroom breakfast, cafeteria breakfast, and lunch, respectively. Parental responses misclassified more children for participation in cafeteria than classroom breakfast (P=0.0008); usual-participant misclassification probabilities were less than nonusual-participant misclassification probabilities for classroom breakfast, cafeteria breakfast, and lunch (Pschool year, breakfast location, and school). Relying on parental responses concerning children's school-meal participation may hamper researchers' abilities to detect relationships that have policy implications for the child nutrition community. The use of administrative daily records of children's school-meal participation is recommended. Copyright © 2014 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Personal meaning in relation to daily functioning of a patient in physical therapy practice: narratives of a patient, a family member, and physical therapist.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oosting, Ellen; Dronkers, Jaap; Hoogeboom, Thomas; van Meeteren, Nico; Speelman, Willem Marie

    2018-05-01

    To get insight into personal meaning of a person involved in a physical therapy intervention. Mrs. A, a 76-year-old woman is referred to a physical therapist (PT) for assessment of functioning and training before total hip arthroplasty (THA). The patient, her daughter, and PT were asked to write a story about their daily life. Stories were analyzed according to the narrative scheme based on a method to find meaning in daily life, which consists of four phases: 1. Motivation; 2. Competences; 3. Performance; and 4. Mrs. A was mainly motivated by her will to do enjoyable social activities and stay independent. Although she tried her best to undertake activities (performance) that made her proud (evaluation), her pain and physical limitations were anti-competences that motivated her to attend healthcare. Although the PT seemed to be aware of personal participation goals, her main motivation was to improve and evaluate functions and activities. The daughter was motivated by good relationships and did not see herself as informal caregiver. The narrative method was a valuable tool to clarify motivations, competences, and values in the process of creating personal meaning related to functioning. This knowledge could help caregivers in applying patient-centered goal-setting and treatment on a participation level. Implications for rehabilitation Personal meaning of people's functioning within their daily context can be clarified from daily life stories. This case report demonstrates that motivations and goals may differ between patient and therapist; the PT seems to focus on improving and evaluating functions and activities, while the patient seems to focus her motivations and personal meaning on participation. This approach may help in patient-centered goal-setting at the level of activities and participation.

  5. Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jordan R.; Case, Jonathan L.; Molthan, Andrew L.

    2011-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center develops new products and techniques that can be used in operational meteorology. The majority of these products are derived from NASA polar-orbiting satellite imagery from the Earth Observing System (EOS) platforms. One such product is a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is produced from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the new SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on land surface models apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. The second phase of the project is to examine the impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate WRF model simulations were made for individual severe weather case days using the NCEP GVF (control) and SPoRT GVF (experimental), with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results in these case studies, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and lower direct surface heating, which typically resulted in lower (higher) predicted 2-m temperatures (2-m dewpoint temperatures). The opposite was true

  6. A Conceptual Model for Teaching the Relationship of Daily Life and Human Environmental Impact to Ecological Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyner, Yael

    2013-01-01

    In the general activity of daily life, it is easy to miss our dependency on the Earth's ecology. At the same time that people are living apparently separate from the environment, our impact on the Earth is increasing. This study seeks to understand how teachers can bridge this persistent disconnect of daily life from ecology and human impact.…

  7. New England SPARROW Water-Quality Modeling to Assist with the Development of Total Maximum Daily Loads in the Connecticut River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, R. B.; Robinson, K. W.; Simcox, A. C.; Johnston, C. M.

    2002-05-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and the New England Interstate Water Pollution Control Commission (NEWIPCC), is currently preparing a water-quality model, called SPARROW, to assist in the regional total maximum daily load (TMDL) studies in New England. A model is required to provide estimates of nutrient loads and confidence intervals at unmonitored stream reaches. SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes) is a spatially detailed, statistical model that uses regression equations to relate total phosphorus and nitrogen (nutrient) stream loads to pollution sources and watershed characteristics. These statistical relations are then used to predict nutrient loads in unmonitored streams. The New England SPARROW model is based on a hydrologic network of 42,000 stream reaches and associated watersheds. Point source data are derived from USEPA's Permit Compliance System (PCS). Information about nonpoint sources is derived from data such as fertilizer use, livestock wastes, and atmospheric deposition. Watershed characteristics include land use, streamflow, time-of-travel, stream density, percent wetlands, slope of the land surface, and soil permeability. Preliminary SPARROW results are expected in Spring 2002. The New England SPARROW model is proposed for use in the TMDL determination for nutrients in the Connecticut River Basin, upstream of Connecticut. The model will be used to estimate nitrogen loads from each of the upstream states to Long Island Sound. It will provide estimates and confidence intervals of phosphorus and nitrogen loads, area-weighted yields of nutrients by watershed, sources of nutrients, and the downstream movement of nutrients. This information will be used to (1) understand ranges in nutrient levels in surface waters, (2) identify the environmental factors that affect nutrient levels in streams, (3) evaluate monitoring efforts for better determination of

  8. Selecting the optimal method to calculate daily global reference potential evaporation from CFSR reanalysis data for application in a hydrological model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. C. Sperna Weiland

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Potential evaporation (PET is one of the main inputs of hydrological models. Yet, there is limited consensus on which PET equation is most applicable in hydrological climate impact assessments. In this study six different methods to derive global scale reference PET daily time series from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR data are compared: Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor and original and re-calibrated versions of the Hargreaves and Blaney-Criddle method. The calculated PET time series are (1 evaluated against global monthly Penman-Monteith PET time series calculated from CRU data and (2 tested on their usability for modeling of global discharge cycles.

    A major finding is that for part of the investigated basins the selection of a PET method may have only a minor influence on the resulting river flow. Within the hydrological model used in this study the bias related to the PET method tends to decrease while going from PET, AET and runoff to discharge calculations. However, the performance of individual PET methods appears to be spatially variable, which stresses the necessity to select the most accurate and spatially stable PET method. The lowest root mean squared differences and the least significant deviations (95% significance level between monthly CFSR derived PET time series and CRU derived PET were obtained for a cell-specific re-calibrated Blaney-Criddle equation. However, results show that this re-calibrated form is likely to be unstable under changing climate conditions and less reliable for the calculation of daily time series. Although often recommended, the Penman-Monteith equation applied to the CFSR data did not outperform the other methods in a evaluation against PET derived with the Penman-Monteith equation from CRU data. In arid regions (e.g. Sahara, central Australia, US deserts, the equation resulted in relatively low PET values and, consequently, led to relatively high discharge values for dry basins (e

  9. On a relation of geomagnetic activity, solar wind velocity and irregularity of daily rotation of the Earth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalinin, Yu.D.; Kiselev, V.M.

    1980-01-01

    A possibility of the presence of statistic relation between the changes of the Earth rotation regime and the mean velocity of solar wind is discussed. The ratio between the solar wind velocity observed and planetary index of geomagnetic activity am is used to determine the annual average values of solar wind velocity beyond the twentieth cycle of solar activity. The restored changes of solar wind velocity are compared with solar conditioned variations of the Earth day duration and it is shown that the correspondence takes place only at frequencies lower the frequency of 11-year cycle [ru

  10. Health professionals perceive teamwork with relatives as an obstacle in their daily work - a focus group interview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Jannie; Broholm, Malene; Rosenberg, Jacob

    2017-01-01

    Background: Health professionals must often balance between different rationalities within the hospital organisation. Having adequate time with patients, shorter waiting time and the ability to greater professional autonomy have been shown to help provide a higher quality of care. Empathy...... and sympathy appear to be crucial components for the health professionals and their relationship to patients. Aim: The aim of this study was to explore health professionals' experiences of relatives to critically ill patients in order to identify aspects that may facilitate a better understanding...

  11. Better functional mobility in community-dwelling elderly is related to D-hormone serum levels and to daily calcium intake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dukas, L; Staehelin, H B; Schacht, E; Bischoff, H A

    2005-01-01

    The influence of calcitropic hormones on functional mobility has been studied in vitamin D (calcidiol) deficient elderly or elderly with a history of falls, however, data in community-dwelling independent vitamin D replete elderly are missing. We therefore assessed in an observational survey the association of calcidiol (25(OH)D3) and calcitriol (D-hormone / 1,25(OH)2D3) status as well as of daily calcium intake on functional mobility in older subjects We evaluated 192 women and 188 men, aged superior 70 years and living independently. Average Timed-up and go test (TUG-test) in seconds was taken as measure of functional mobility. Calcidiol and D-hormone serum concentrations and daily calcium intake were studied in multivariate controlled linear regression models with TUG-test performance as the dependent variable and/or as dichotomous variables (deficient vs. non-deficient, above vs. below the median, respectively). Subjects with low D-hormone serum concentrations took significantly more time to perform the TUG-test (low = 7.70s +/- 2.52 SD ; high = 6.70s +/- 1.29 SD; p = 0.004). In the linear multivariate controlled regression model increased D-hormone serum concentrations predicted better TUG-test performance (estimate -0.0007, p = 0.044). Participants with a calcium intake of > or =512 mg/day were significantly faster to perform the TUG-test than participants with a daily calcium intake of better TUG-test performance in both models were: male gender, less comorbid conditions, younger age, lower BMI, iPTH serum levels and creatinine clearance. Calcidiol serum levels were not associated with TUG-test performance. Higher D-hormone status and a calcium intake of > or =512 mg/day in community-dwelling independent older persons are significant determinants of better functional mobility. Therefore, to ensure optimal functional mobility, the care of older persons should address correction of D-hormone deficiency and increasing daily calcium intake.

  12. Using spatially detailed water-quality data and solute-transport modeling to improve support total maximum daily load development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walton-Day, Katherine; Runkel, Robert L.; Kimball, Briant A.

    2012-01-01

    Spatially detailed mass-loading studies and solute-transport modeling using OTIS (One-dimensional Transport with Inflow and Storage) demonstrate how natural attenuation and loading from distinct and diffuse sources control stream water quality and affect load reductions predicted in total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). Mass-loading data collected during low-flow from Cement Creek (a low-pH, metal-rich stream because of natural and mining sources, and subject to TMDL requirements) were used to calibrate OTIS and showed spatially variable effects of natural attenuation (instream reactions) and loading from diffuse (groundwater) and distinct sources. OTIS simulations of the possible effects of TMDL-recommended remediation of mine sites showed less improvement to dissolved zinc load and concentration (14% decrease) than did the TMDL (53-63% decrease). The TMDL (1) assumed conservative transport, (2) accounted for loads removed by remediation by subtracting them from total load at the stream mouth, and (3) did not include diffuse-source loads. In OTIS, loads were reduced near their source; the resulting concentration was decreased by natural attenuation and increased by diffuse-source loads during downstream transport. Thus, by not including natural attenuation and loading from diffuse sources, the TMDL overestimated remediation effects at low flow. Use of the techniques presented herein could improve TMDLs by incorporating these processes during TMDL development.

  13. Daily intake of Jeju groundwater improves the skin condition of the model mouse for human atopic dermatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Akane; Jung, Kyungsook; Matsuda, Akira; Jang, Hyosun; Kajiwara, Naoki; Amagai, Yosuke; Oida, Kumiko; Ahn, Ginnae; Ohmori, Keitaro; Kang, Kyung-goo; Matsuda, Hiroshi

    2013-03-01

    Drinking water is an important nutrient for human health. The mineral ingredients included in drinking water may affect the physical condition of people. Various kinds of natural water are in circulation as bottled water in developed countries; however, its influence on clinical conditions of patients with certain diseases has not been fully evaluated. In this study, effects of the natural groundwater from Jeju Island on clinical symptoms and skin barrier function in atopic dermatitis (AD) were evaluated. NC/Tnd mice, a model for human AD, with moderate to severe dermatitis were used. Mice were given different natural groundwater or tap water for 8 weeks from 4 weeks of age. Clinical skin severity scores were recorded every week. Scratching analysis and measurement of transepidermal water loss were performed every other week. The pathological condition of the dorsal skin was evaluated histologically. Real-time polymerase chain reaction analysis was performed for cytokine expression in the affected skin. The epidermal hyperplasia and allergic inflammation were reduced in atopic mice supplied with Jeju groundwater when compared to those supplied with tap water or other kinds of natural groundwater. The increase in scratching behavior with the aggravation of clinical severity of dermatitis was favorably controlled. Moreover, transepidermal water loss that reflects skin barrier function was recovered. The early inflammation and hypersensitivity in the atopic skin was alleviated in mice supplied with Jeju groundwater, suggesting its profitable potential on the daily care of patients with skin troubles including AD. © 2013 Japanese Dermatological Association.

  14. A Hybrid Framework to Bias Correct and Empirically Downscale Daily Temperature and Precipitation from Regional Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, P.; Abraham, Z.; Winkler, J. A.; Perdinan, P.; Zhong, S. S.; Liszewska, M.

    2013-12-01

    Bias correction and statistical downscaling are widely used approaches for postprocessing climate simulations generated by global and/or regional climate models. The skills of these approaches are typically assessed in terms of their ability to reproduce historical climate conditions as well as the plausibility and consistency of the derived statistical indicators needed by end users. Current bias correction and downscaling approaches often do not adequately satisfy the two criteria of accurate prediction and unbiased estimation. To overcome this limitation, a hybrid regression framework was developed to both minimize prediction errors and preserve the distributional characteristics of climate observations. Specifically, the framework couples the loss functions of standard (linear or nonlinear) regression methods with a regularization term that penalizes for discrepancies between the predicted and observed distributions. The proposed framework can also be extended to generate physically-consistent outputs across multiple response variables, and to incorporate both reanalysis-driven and GCM-driven RCM outputs into a unified learning framework. The effectiveness of the framework is demonstrated using daily temperature and precipitation simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Program (NARCCAP) . The accuracy of the framework is comparable to standard regression methods, but, unlike the standard regression methods, the proposed framework is able to preserve many of the distribution properties of the response variables, akin to bias correction approaches such as quantile mapping and bivariate geometric quantile mapping.

  15. Relations Between Self-Reported Daily-Life Fatigue, Hearing Status, and Pupil Dilation During a Speech Perception in Noise Task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yang; Naylor, Graham; Kramer, Sophia E; Zekveld, Adriana A; Wendt, Dorothea; Ohlenforst, Barbara; Lunner, Thomas

    People with hearing impairment are likely to experience higher levels of fatigue because of effortful listening in daily communication. This hearing-related fatigue might not only constrain their work performance but also result in withdrawal from major social roles. Therefore, it is important to understand the relationships between fatigue, listening effort, and hearing impairment by examining the evidence from both subjective and objective measurements. The aim of the present study was to investigate these relationships by assessing subjectively measured daily-life fatigue (self-report questionnaires) and objectively measured listening effort (pupillometry) in both normally hearing and hearing-impaired participants. Twenty-seven normally hearing and 19 age-matched participants with hearing impairment were included in this study. Two self-report fatigue questionnaires Need For Recovery and Checklist Individual Strength were given to the participants before the test session to evaluate the subjectively measured daily fatigue. Participants were asked to perform a speech reception threshold test with single-talker masker targeting a 50% correct response criterion. The pupil diameter was recorded during the speech processing, and we used peak pupil dilation (PPD) as the main outcome measure of the pupillometry. No correlation was found between subjectively measured fatigue and hearing acuity, nor was a group difference found between the normally hearing and the hearing-impaired participants on the fatigue scores. A significant negative correlation was found between self-reported fatigue and PPD. A similar correlation was also found between Speech Intelligibility Index required for 50% correct and PPD. Multiple regression analysis showed that factors representing "hearing acuity" and "self-reported fatigue" had equal and independent associations with the PPD during the speech in noise test. Less fatigue and better hearing acuity were associated with a larger pupil

  16. Daily precipitation grids for Austria since 1961—development and evaluation of a spatial dataset for hydroclimatic monitoring and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiebl, Johann; Frei, Christoph

    2018-04-01

    Spatial precipitation datasets that are long-term consistent, highly resolved and extend over several decades are an increasingly popular basis for modelling and monitoring environmental processes and planning tasks in hydrology, agriculture, energy resources management, etc. Here, we present a grid dataset of daily precipitation for Austria meant to promote such applications. It has a grid spacing of 1 km, extends back till 1961 and is continuously updated. It is constructed with the classical two-tier analysis, involving separate interpolations for mean monthly precipitation and daily relative anomalies. The former was accomplished by kriging with topographic predictors as external drift utilising 1249 stations. The latter is based on angular distance weighting and uses 523 stations. The input station network was kept largely stationary over time to avoid artefacts on long-term consistency. Example cases suggest that the new analysis is at least as plausible as previously existing datasets. Cross-validation and comparison against experimental high-resolution observations (WegenerNet) suggest that the accuracy of the dataset depends on interpretation. Users interpreting grid point values as point estimates must expect systematic overestimates for light and underestimates for heavy precipitation as well as substantial random errors. Grid point estimates are typically within a factor of 1.5 from in situ observations. Interpreting grid point values as area mean values, conditional biases are reduced and the magnitude of random errors is considerably smaller. Together with a similar dataset of temperature, the new dataset (SPARTACUS) is an interesting basis for modelling environmental processes, studying climate change impacts and monitoring the climate of Austria.

  17. Metabolic, endocrine and appetite-related responses to acute and daily milk snack consumption in healthy, adolescent males.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Benjamin P; Stevenson, Emma J; Rumbold, Penny L S

    2017-01-01

    Comprising of two experiments, this study assessed the metabolic, endocrine and appetite-related responses to acute and chronic milk consumption in adolescent males (15-18 y). Eleven adolescents [mean ± SD age: 16.5 ± 0.9 y; BMI: 23.3 ± 3.3 kg/m 2 ] participated in the acute experiment and completed two laboratory visits (milk vs. fruit-juice) in a randomized crossover design, separated by 7-d. Seventeen adolescents [age: 16.1 ± 0.9 y; BMI: 21.8 ± 3.7 kg/m 2 ] completed the chronic experiment. For the chronic experiment, a parallel design with two groups was used. Participants were randomly allocated and consumed milk (n = 9) or fruit-juice (n = 8) for 28-d, completing laboratory visits on the first (baseline, day-0) and last day (follow-up, day-28) of the intervention phase. On laboratory visits (for both experiments), measures of appetite, metabolism and endocrine responses were assessed at regular intervals. In addition, eating behavior was quantified by ad libitum assessment under laboratory conditions and in the free-living environment by weighed food record. Acute milk intake stimulated glucagon (P = 0.027 [16.8 pg mL; 95% CI: 2.4, 31.3]) and reduced ad libitum energy intake relative to fruit-juice (P = 0.048 [-651.3 kJ; 95% CI: -1294.1, -8.6]), but was comparable in the free-living environment. Chronic milk intake reduced free-living energy intake at the follow-up visit compared to baseline (P = 0.013 [-1910.9 kJ; 95% CI: -554.6, -3267.2]), whereas the opposite was apparent for fruit-juice. Relative to baseline, chronic milk intake increased the insulin response to both breakfast (P = 0.031) and mid-morning milk consumption (P = 0.050) whilst attenuating blood glucose (P = 0.025). Together, these findings suggest milk consumption impacts favorably on eating behavior in adolescent males, potentially through integrated endocrine responses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Neural network model for the prediction of PM10 daily concentrations in two sites in the Western Mediterranean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Gennaro, Gianluigi; Trizio, Livia; Di Gilio, Alessia; Pey, Jorge; Pérez, Noemi; Cusack, Michael; Alastuey, Andrés; Querol, Xavier

    2013-10-01

    An artificial neural network (ANN) was developed and tested to forecast PM10 daily concentration in two contrasted environments in NE Spain, a regional background site (Montseny), and an urban background site (Barcelona-CSIC), which was highly influenced by vehicular emissions. In order to predict 24-h average PM10 concentrations, the artificial neural network previously developed by Caselli et al. (2009) was improved by using hourly PM concentrations and deterministic factors such as a Saharan dust alert. In particular, the model input data for prediction were the hourly PM10 concentrations 1-day in advance, local meteorological data and information about air masses origin. The forecasted performance indexes for both sites were calculated and they showed better results for the regional background site in Montseny (R(2)=0.86, SI=0.75) than for urban site in Barcelona (R(2)=0.73, SI=0.58), influenced by local and sometimes unexpected sources. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis conducted to understand the importance of the different variables included among the input data, showed that local meteorology and air masses origin are key factors in the model forecasts. This result explains the reason for the improvement of ANN's forecasting performance at the Montseny site with respect to the Barcelona site. Moreover, the artificial neural network developed in this work could prove useful to predict PM10 concentrations, especially, at regional background sites such as those on the Mediterranean Basin which are primarily affected by long-range transports. Hence, the artificial neural network presented here could be a powerful tool for obtaining real time information on air quality status and could aid stakeholders in their development of cost-effective control strategies. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkers, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2002-01-01

    To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems,

  20. Smoking-related correlates of psychomotor restlessness and agitation in a community sample of daily cigarette smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Jordan A; Leventhal, Adam M

    2015-03-01

    Psychomotor restlessness and agitation (PMA) is a putatively important, yet understudied, psychopathologic correlate of smoking. The scant smoking research on PMA previously conducted has been narrow in scope and conducted among psychiatric patients. To examine the generalizability and relevance of PMA to smoking, this cross-sectional study investigated associations between PMA and a variety of smoking processes in a community sample. Participants in this study were non-treatment-seeking smokers (N = 254, ≥10 cig/day, M age = 44 years) from the community without an active mood disorder. At baseline, they completed a PMA symptom checklist, a composite depressive symptom index, and a battery of smoking questionnaires. Linear regression models adjusting for depressive symptoms and demographics indicated that PMA level was positively associated with severity of nicotine withdrawal symptoms during prior quit attempts (β = .18, p smoke for negative reinforcement (β = .14, p smoking expectancies for negative reinforcement (β = .17, p smoking chronicity, frequency, or dependence severity. Smokers with elevated PMA appear to experience greater smoking-induced affect modulation and nicotine withdrawal than the average smoker, regardless of other depressive symptoms. Given that PMA differentiates a qualitatively unique profile of smoking characteristics, PMA warrants consideration in tobacco addiction research and practice. © American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

  1. A Daily Diary Study of Coping in the Context of the Job Demands-Control-Support Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, Kevin; Harris, Claire

    2005-01-01

    We examined one of the processes thought to underpin Karasek and Theorell's job demands-control-support model (1990). This is that control and support accentuate better well-being by fostering problem-focused coping with work demands. We also examined whether other forms of coping implemented through control and support are related to indicators…

  2. Models and relations in economics and econometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    1999-01-01

    Based on a money market analysis using the cointegrated VAR model the paper demonstrates some possible pitfalls in macroeconomic inference as a direct consequence of inadequate stochastic model formulation. A number of questions related to concepts such as empirical and theoretical steady...

  3. Relating business modelling and enterprise architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meertens, Lucas Onno

    2013-01-01

    This thesis proposes a methodology for creating business models, evaluating them, and relating them to enterprise architecture. The methodology consists of several steps, leading from an organization’s current situation to a target situation, via business models and enterprise architecture.

  4. Social learning pathways in the relation between parental chronic pain and daily pain severity and functional impairment in adolescents with functional abdominal pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Amanda L; Bruehl, Stephen; Smith, Craig A; Garber, Judy; Walker, Lynn S

    2017-10-06

    Having a parent with chronic pain (CP) may confer greater risk for persistence of CP from childhood into young adulthood. Social learning, such as parental modeling and reinforcement, represents one plausible mechanism for the transmission of risk for CP from parents to offspring. Based on a 7-day pain diary in 154 pediatric patients with functional abdominal CP, we tested a model in which parental CP predicted adolescents' daily average CP severity and functional impairment (distal outcomes) via parental modeling of pain behaviors and parental reinforcement of adolescent's pain behaviors (mediators) and adolescents' cognitive appraisals of pain threat (proximal outcome representing adolescents' encoding of parents' behaviors). Results indicated significant indirect pathways from parental CP status to adolescent average daily pain severity (b = 0.18, SE = 0.08, 95% CI: 0.04, 0.31, p = 0.03) and functional impairment (b = 0.08, SE = 0.04, 95% CI: 0.02, 0.15, p = 0.03) over the 7-day diary period via adolescents' observations of parent pain behaviors and adolescent pain threat appraisal. The indirect pathway through parental reinforcing responses to adolescents' pain did not reach significance for either adolescent pain severity or functional impairment. Identifying mechanisms of increased risk for pain and functional impairment in children of parents with CP ultimately could lead to targeted interventions aimed at improving functioning and quality of life in families with chronic pain. Parental modeling of pain behaviors represents a potentially promising target for family based interventions to ameliorate pediatric chronic pain.

  5. Stress-related expectations about smoking cessation and future quit attempts and abstinence - a prospective study in daily smokers who wish to quit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skov-Ettrup, Lise Skrubbeltrang; Egan, Kia Kejlskov; Dalum, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Smokers who wish to quit may refrain from doing so if they expect to experience more stress after haven given up. We test if stress-related expectations about smoking cessation are associated with quit attempts and abstinence among smokers who are motivated to quit. The study included 1809 daily...... after 3, 8 and 14 months. We found that the association between expecting to be more stressed if giving up smoking differed between participants who had previously attempted to quit and those who had not: In participants who previously attempted to quit (47%), expecting to be more stressed......, expectations about stress were not associated with abstinence. Results indicate that expectations about stress in relation to smoking cessation are an important determinant of cessation in smokers who previously attempted to quit. Addressing stress and how to handle stressful situations may increase...

  6. Daily physical-rest activities in relation to nutritional state, metabolism, and quality of life in cancer patients with progressive cachexia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fouladiun, Marita; Körner, Ulla; Gunnebo, Lena; Sixt-Ammilon, Petra; Bosaeus, Ingvar; Lundholm, Kent

    2007-11-01

    To evaluate daily physical-rest activities in cancer patients losing weight in relation to disease progression. Physical activity-rest rhythms were measured (ActiGraph, armband sensor from BodyMedia) in relation to body composition (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry), energy metabolism, exercise capacity (walking test), and self-scored quality of life (SF-36, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale) in weight-losing outpatients with systemic cancer (71 +/- 2 years, n = 53). Well-nourished, age-matched, and previously hospitalized non-cancer patients served as controls (74 +/- 4 years, n = 8). Middle-aged healthy individuals were used as reference subjects (49 +/- 5 years, n = 23). Quality of life was globally reduced in patients with cancer (P sleep and bed-rest activities did not differ between patients with cancer and age-matched non-cancer patients. Spontaneous physical activity correlated weakly with maximum exercise capacity in univariate analysis (r = 0.41, P < 0.01). Multivariate analysis showed that spontaneous physical activity was related to weight loss, blood hemoglobin concentration, C-reactive protein, and to subjectively scored items of physical functioning and bodily pain (SF-36; P < 0.05-0.004). Anxiety and depression were not related to spontaneous physical activity. Patient survival was predicted only by weight loss and serum albumin levels (P < 0.01), although there was no such prediction for spontaneous physical activity. Daily physical-rest activities represent variables which probably reflect complex mental physiologic and metabolic interactions. Thus, activity-rest monitoring provides a new dimension in the evaluation of medical and drug interventions during palliative treatment of patients with cancer.

  7. Protein Simulation Data in the Relational Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simms, Andrew M; Daggett, Valerie

    2012-10-01

    High performance computing is leading to unprecedented volumes of data. Relational databases offer a robust and scalable model for storing and analyzing scientific data. However, these features do not come without a cost-significant design effort is required to build a functional and efficient repository. Modeling protein simulation data in a relational database presents several challenges: the data captured from individual simulations are large, multi-dimensional, and must integrate with both simulation software and external data sites. Here we present the dimensional design and relational implementation of a comprehensive data warehouse for storing and analyzing molecular dynamics simulations using SQL Server.

  8. Longitudinal analysis of direct and indirect effects on average daily gain in rabbits using a structured antedependence model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Ingrid; Sánchez, Juan-Pablo; Piles, Miriam

    2018-05-10

    Indirect genetic effects (IGE) are important components of various traits in several species. Although the intensity of social interactions between partners likely vary over time, very few genetic studies have investigated how IGE vary over time for traits under selection in livestock species. To overcome this issue, our aim was: (1) to analyze longitudinal records of average daily gain (ADG) in rabbits subjected to a 5-week period of feed restriction using a structured antedependence (SAD) model that includes IGE and (2) to evaluate, by simulation, the response to selection when IGE are present and genetic evaluation is based on a SAD model that includes IGE or not. The direct genetic variance for ADG (g/d) increased from week 1 to 3 [from 8.03 to 13.47 (g/d) 2 ] and then decreased [6.20 (g/d) 2 at week 5], while the indirect genetic variance decreased from week 1 to 4 [from 0.43 to 0.22 (g/d) 2 ]. The correlation between the direct genetic effects of different weeks was moderate to high (ranging from 0.46 to 0.86) and tended to decrease with time interval between measurements. The same trend was observed for IGE for weeks 2 to 5 (correlations ranging from 0.62 to 0.91). Estimates of the correlation between IGE of week 1 and IGE of the other weeks did not follow the same pattern and correlations were lower. Estimates of correlations between direct and indirect effects were negative at all times. After seven generations of simulated selection, the increase in ADG from selection on EBV from a SAD model that included IGE was higher (~ 30%) than when those effects were omitted. Indirect genetic effects are larger just after mixing animals at weaning than later in the fattening period, probably because of the establishment of social hierarchy that is generally observed at that time. Accounting for IGE in the selection criterion maximizes genetic progress.

  9. Daily Interpersonal and Affective Dynamics in Personality Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Aidan G.C.; Hopwood, Christopher J.; Simms, Leonard J.

    2015-01-01

    In this naturalistic study we adopt the lens of interpersonal theory to examine between-and within-person differences in dynamic processes of daily affect and interpersonal behaviors among individuals (N = 101) previously diagnosed with personality disorders who completed daily diaries over the course of 100 days. Dispositional ratings of interpersonal problems and measures of daily stress were used as predictors of daily shifts in interpersonal behavior and affect in multilevel models. Results indicate that ~40%–50% of the variance in interpersonal behavior and affect is due to daily fluctuations, which are modestly related to dispositional measures of interpersonal problems but strongly related to daily stress. The findings support conceptions of personality disorders as a dynamic form of psychopathology involving the individuals interacting with and regulating in response to the contextual features of their environment. PMID:26200849

  10. A daily herd Markov-chain model to study the reproductive and economic impact of reproductive programs combining timed artificial insemination and estrus detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giordano, J O; Kalantari, A S; Fricke, P M; Wiltbank, M C; Cabrera, V E

    2012-09-01

    Our objective was to compare the economic and reproductive performance of programs combining timed artificial insemination (TAI) and different levels of AI after estrus detection (ED) using a daily Markov-chain model. A dairy herd was modeled with every cow following daily probabilistic events of aging, replacement, mortality, pregnancy, pregnancy loss, and calving. The probability of pregnancy depended on the combination of probability of insemination and conception rate (CR). All nonpregnant cows had a probability of pregnancy between the end of the voluntary waiting period and days in milk cutoff for AI. After the cutoff, cows were labeled as do not breed and replaced when milk production was below a minimum milk threshold. A similar model was created to represent a replacement heifer herd to simulate and adjust the supply and demand of replacements. The net value (NV) of a program was the sum of milk income over feed cost, replacement and mortality cost, income from newborns, and reproductive costs. The model was used to compare the NV of 19 programs. One program used 100% TAI (42% CR for first TAI and 30% for second-and-later services), whereas the other programs combined TAI with ED. The proportion of cows receiving AI after ED for the combined programs ranged from 30 to 80%, with levels of CR of 25, 30, and 35%. As the proportion of cows receiving AI after ED increased, the CR of cows receiving TAI decreased. The combined programs with CR of 35% for cows receiving AI after ED had the greatest NV and reproductive performance at all levels of ED. The program using 100% TAI had greater NV and better reproductive performance than all programs with 25% CR after ED inseminations, whereas it had very similar performance to combined programs with up to 60% of cows receiving AI after ED and 30% CR. The factor with the greatest relative contribution to the differences among programs was income over feed cost, followed by replacement and reproductive costs. Adjusting

  11. Using a Hero as a Model in Video Instruction to Improve the Daily Living Skills of an Elementary-Aged Student with Autism Spectrum Disorder: A Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohtake, Yoshihisa

    2015-01-01

    The present pilot study investigated the impact of video hero modelling (VHM) on the daily living skills of an elementary-aged student with autism spectrum disorder. The VHM, in which a character much admired by the student exhibited a correct response, was shown to the participant immediately before the situation where he needed to exhibit the…

  12. Use of Video Modeling and Video Prompting Interventions for Teaching Daily Living Skills to Individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorders: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Stephanie; Wolfe, Pamela

    2013-01-01

    Identifying methods to increase the independent functioning of individuals with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) is vital in enhancing their quality of life; teaching students with ASD daily living skills can foster independent functioning. This review examines interventions that implement video modeling and/or prompting to teach individuals with…

  13. Using the Enhanced Daily Load Stimulus Model to Quantify the Mechanical Load and Bone Mineral Density Changes Experienced by Crew Members on the International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genc, K. O.; Gopalakrishnan, R.; Kuklis, M. M.; Maender, C. C.; Rice, A. J.; Cavanagh, P. R.

    2009-01-01

    Despite the use of exercise countermeasures during long-duration space missions, bone mineral density (BMD) and predicted bone strength of astronauts continue to show decreases in the lower extremities and spine. This site-specific bone adaptation is most likely caused by the effects of microgravity on the mechanical loading environment of the crew member. There is, therefore, a need to quantify the mechanical loading experienced on Earth and on-orbit to define the effect of a given "dose" of loading on bone homeostasis. Gene et al. recently proposed an enhanced DLS (EDLS) model that, when used with entire days of in-shoe forces, takes into account recently developed theories on the importance of factors such as saturation, recovery, and standing and their effects on the osteogenic response of bone to daily physical activity. This algorithm can also quantify the tinting and type of activity (sit/unload, stand, walk, run or other loaded activity) performed throughout the day. The purpose of the current study was to use in-shoe force measurements from entire typical work days on Earth and on-orbit in order to quantify the type and amount of loading experienced by crew members. The specific aim was to use these measurements as inputs into the EDLS model to determine activity timing/type and the mechanical "dose" imparted on the musculoskeletal system of crew members and relate this dose to changes in bone homeostasis.

  14. An evaluation of anxiety sensitivity, emotional dysregulation, and negative affectivity among daily cigarette smokers: relation to smoking motives and barriers to quitting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Adam; Zvolensky, Michael J; Vujanovic, Anka A; Leyro, Teresa M; Marshall, Erin C

    2008-12-01

    The present investigation evaluated the relations between anxiety sensitivity and motivational bases of cigarette smoking, as well as barriers to quitting smoking, above and beyond concurrent substance use, negative affectivity, and emotional dysregulation among a community sample of 189 daily cigarette smokers (46% women; M(age)=24.97 years, SD=9.78). Results indicated that anxiety sensitivity was significantly related to coping, addictive, and habitual smoking motives, as well as greater perceived barriers to quitting. These effects were evident above and beyond the variance accounted for by concurrent tobacco, alcohol, and marijuana use and discernable from shared variance with negative affectivity and emotional dysregulation. Emotional dysregulation was significantly related to stimulation, habitual, and sensorimotor smoking motives and greater perceived barriers to quitting, whereas negative affectivity was only significantly related to smoking for relaxation. These findings uniquely add to a growing literature suggesting anxiety sensitivity is an important and unique cognitive factor for better understanding clinically-relevant psychological processes related to cigarette smoking.

  15. The challenge of modelling nitrogen management at the field scale: simulation and sensitivity analysis of N2O fluxes across nine experimental sites using DailyDayCent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fitton, N; Datta, A; Hastings, A; Kuhnert, M; Smith, P; Topp, C F E; Cloy, J M; Rees, R M; Cardenas, L M; Williams, J R; Smith, K; Chadwick, D

    2014-01-01

    The United Kingdom currently reports nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture using the IPCC default Tier 1 methodology. However Tier 1 estimates have a large degree of uncertainty as they do not account for spatial variations in emissions. Therefore biogeochemical models such as DailyDayCent (DDC) are increasingly being used to provide a spatially disaggregated assessment of annual emissions. Prior to use, an assessment of the ability of the model to predict annual emissions should be undertaken, coupled with an analysis of how model inputs influence model outputs, and whether the modelled estimates are more robust that those derived from the Tier 1 methodology. The aims of the study were (a) to evaluate if the DailyDayCent model can accurately estimate annual N 2 O emissions across nine different experimental sites, (b) to examine its sensitivity to different soil and climate inputs across a number of experimental sites and (c) to examine the influence of uncertainty in the measured inputs on modelled N 2 O emissions. DailyDayCent performed well across the range of cropland and grassland sites, particularly for fertilized fields indicating that it is robust for UK conditions. The sensitivity of the model varied across the sites and also between fertilizer/manure treatments. Overall our results showed that there was a stronger correlation between the sensitivity of N 2 O emissions to changes in soil pH and clay content than the remaining input parameters used in this study. The lower the initial site values for soil pH and clay content, the more sensitive DDC was to changes from their initial value. When we compared modelled estimates with Tier 1 estimates for each site, we found that DailyDayCent provided a more accurate representation of the rate of annual emissions. (paper)

  16. Chaotic Lagrangian models for turbulent relative dispersion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacorata, Guglielmo; Vulpiani, Angelo

    2017-04-01

    A deterministic multiscale dynamical system is introduced and discussed as a prototype model for relative dispersion in stationary, homogeneous, and isotropic turbulence. Unlike stochastic diffusion models, here trajectory transport and mixing properties are entirely controlled by Lagrangian chaos. The anomalous "sweeping effect," a known drawback common to kinematic simulations, is removed through the use of quasi-Lagrangian coordinates. Lagrangian dispersion statistics of the model are accurately analyzed by computing the finite-scale Lyapunov exponent (FSLE), which is the optimal measure of the scaling properties of dispersion. FSLE scaling exponents provide a severe test to decide whether model simulations are in agreement with theoretical expectations and/or observation. The results of our numerical experiments cover a wide range of "Reynolds numbers" and show that chaotic deterministic flows can be very efficient, and numerically low-cost, models of turbulent trajectories in stationary, homogeneous, and isotropic conditions. The mathematics of the model is relatively simple, and, in a geophysical context, potential applications may regard small-scale parametrization issues in general circulation models, mixed layer, and/or boundary layer turbulence models as well as Lagrangian predictability studies.

  17. Enhancing Extreme Heat Health-Related Intervention and Preparedness Activities Using Remote Sensing Analysis of Daily Surface Temperature, Surface Observation Networks and Ecmwf Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, R. L.; Booth, J.; Hondula, D.; Ross, K. W.; Stuyvesant, A.; Alm, G.; Baghel, E.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme heat causes more human fatalities in the United States than any other natural disaster, elevating the concern of heat-related mortality. Maricopa County Arizona is known for its high heat index and its sprawling metropolitan complex which makes this region a perfect candidate for human health research. Individuals at higher risk are unequally spatially distributed, leaving the poor, homeless, non-native English speakers, elderly, and the socially isolated vulnerable to heat events. The Arizona Department of Health Services, Arizona State University and NASA DEVELOP LaRC are working to establish a more effective method of placing hydration and cooling centers in addition to enhancing the heat warning system to aid those with the highest exposure. Using NASA's Earth Observation Systems from Aqua and Terra satellites, the daily spatial variability within the UHI was quantified over the summer heat seasons from 2005 - 2014, effectively establishing a remotely sensed surface temperature climatology for the county. A series of One-way Analysis of Variance revealed significant differences between daily surface temperature averages of the top 30% of census tracts within the study period. Furthermore, synoptic upper tropospheric circulation patterns were classified to relate surface weather types and heat index. The surface weather observation networks were also reviewed for analyzing the veracity of the other methods. The results provide detailed information regarding nuances within the UHI effect and will allow pertinent recommendations regarding the health department's adaptive capacity. They also hold essential components for future policy decision-making regarding appropriate locations for cooling centers and efficient warning systems.

  18. Applicability of a Serbian version of the “Oral Impacts on Daily Performance (OIDP” index - assessment of oral health-related quality of life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stančić Ivica

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The Oral Impacts on Daily Performance (OIDP is a well-known psychometric test used internationally to assess the oral health-related quality of life. The interview and self-administrated questionnaire both assess the degree to which oral health problems have affected the life of the participants over the previous 6 months. The aim of this study was to translate the OIDP index into Serbian and to assess its reliability in practice as its initial verification in the Serbian speaking area. Methods. Following an internationally established methods, the OIDP scale was translated using standardized methodology that consisted of forward translation, pilot study and backward translation. Results. A pilot study was carried out with 44 respondents (24 males i 20 females using a preliminar Serbian version of the OIDP index. All patients were aged over 65 years. A total of 68.2% of the participants replied that they had at least one OIDP impact on daily life in the past 6 months. These troubles were most prominent during eating (47.7% and speaking (36.4%, but there is a little impact of troubles in the domain of psychosocial sphere. The corrected item-total correlation coefficients for all items were above the minimum recommended level of 0.20 for including an item in a scale. The standardized Cronbach’s alpha coefficient was 0.75. Conclusion. Based on these results, we can conclude that this index is suitable for use in everyday practice in Serbian speaking area providing useful information required to assess oral health-related quality of life.

  19. Relating business modelling and enterprise architecture

    OpenAIRE

    Meertens, Lucas Onno

    2013-01-01

    This thesis proposes a methodology for creating business models, evaluating them, and relating them to enterprise architecture. The methodology consists of several steps, leading from an organization’s current situation to a target situation, via business models and enterprise architecture. Currently, increasing amounts of businesses rely on IT systems to do their business. However, success rates of IT implementations projects are low. Difficulties exist in aligning existing IT systems with b...

  20. Quantifying the effect of heat stress on daily milk yield and monitoring dynamic changes using an adaptive dynamic model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andre, G.; Engel, B.; Berentsen, P.B.M.; Vellinga, T.V.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

    2011-01-01

    Automation and use of robots are increasingly being used within dairy farming and result in large amounts of real time data. This information provides a base for the new management concept of precision livestock farming. From 2003 to 2006, time series of herd mean daily milk yield were collected on

  1. Relative effectiveness of insulin pump treatment over multiple daily injections and structured education during flexible intensive insulin treatment for type 1 diabetes: cluster randomised trial (REPOSE).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-30

    Objective  To compare the effectiveness of insulin pumps with multiple daily injections for adults with type 1 diabetes, with both groups receiving equivalent training in flexible insulin treatment. Design  Pragmatic, multicentre, open label, parallel group, cluster randomised controlled trial (Relative Effectiveness of Pumps Over MDI and Structured Education (REPOSE) trial). Setting  Eight secondary care centres in England and Scotland. Participants  Adults with type 1 diabetes who were willing to undertake intensive insulin treatment, with no preference for pumps or multiple daily injections. Participants were allocated a place on established group training courses that taught flexible intensive insulin treatment ("dose adjustment for normal eating," DAFNE). The course groups (the clusters) were then randomly allocated in pairs to either pump or multiple daily injections. Interventions  Participants attended training in flexible insulin treatment (using insulin analogues) structured around the use of pump or injections, followed for two years. Main outcome measures  The primary outcomes were a change in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) values (%) at two years in participants with baseline HbA1c value of ≥7.5% (58 mmol/mol), and the proportion of participants achieving an HbA1c value of intention to treat analysis, of which 235 (119 pump and 116 injection) had baseline HbA1c values of ≥7.5%. Glycaemic control and rates of severe hypoglycaemia improved in both groups. The mean change in HbA1c at two years was -0.85% with pump treatment and -0.42% with multiple daily injections. Adjusting for course, centre, age, sex, and accounting for missing values, the difference was -0.24% (-2.7 mmol/mol) in favour of pump users (95% confidence interval -0.53 to 0.05, P=0.10). Most psychosocial measures showed no difference, but pump users showed greater improvement in treatment satisfaction and some quality of life domains (dietary freedom and daily hassle) at 12 and 24

  2. Daily Streamflow Predictions in an Ungauged Watershed in Northern California Using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS): Calibration Challenges when nearby Gauged Watersheds are Hydrologically Dissimilar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhakal, A. S.; Adera, S.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate daily streamflow prediction in ungauged watersheds with sparse information is challenging. The ability of a hydrologic model calibrated using nearby gauged watersheds to predict streamflow accurately depends on hydrologic similarities between the gauged and ungauged watersheds. This study examines daily streamflow predictions using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) for the largely ungauged San Antonio Creek watershed, a 96 km2 sub-watershed of the Alameda Creek watershed in Northern California. The process-based PRMS model is being used to improve the accuracy of recent San Antonio Creek streamflow predictions generated by two empirical methods. Although San Antonio Creek watershed is largely ungauged, daily streamflow data exists for hydrologic years (HY) 1913 - 1930. PRMS was calibrated for HY 1913 - 1930 using streamflow data, modern-day land use and PRISM precipitation distribution, and gauged precipitation and temperature data from a nearby watershed. The PRMS model was then used to generate daily streamflows for HY 1996-2013, during which the watershed was ungauged, and hydrologic responses were compared to two nearby gauged sub-watersheds of Alameda Creek. Finally, the PRMS-predicted daily flows between HY 1996-2013 were compared to the two empirically-predicted streamflow time series: (1) the reservoir mass balance method and (2) correlation of historical streamflows from 80 - 100 years ago between San Antonio Creek and a nearby sub-watershed located in Alameda Creek. While the mass balance approach using reservoir storage and transfers is helpful for estimating inflows to the reservoir, large discrepancies in daily streamflow estimation can arise. Similarly, correlation-based predicted daily flows which rely on a relationship from flows collected 80-100 years ago may not represent current watershed hydrologic conditions. This study aims to develop a method of streamflow prediction in the San Antonio Creek watershed by examining PRMS

  3. Modelling nitrous oxide emissions from mown-grass and grain-cropping systems: Testing and sensitivity analysis of DailyDayCent using high frequency measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senapati, Nimai; Chabbi, Abad; Giostri, André Faé; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh B; Smith, Pete

    2016-12-01

    The DailyDayCent biogeochemical model was used to simulate nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from two contrasting agro-ecosystems viz. a mown-grassland and a grain-cropping system in France. Model performance was tested using high frequency measurements over three years; additionally a local sensitivity analysis was performed. Annual N 2 O emissions of 1.97 and 1.24kgNha -1 year -1 were simulated from mown-grassland and grain-cropland, respectively. Measured and simulated water filled pore space (r=0.86, ME=-2.5%) and soil temperature (r=0.96, ME=-0.63°C) at 10cm soil depth matched well in mown-grassland. The model predicted cumulative hay and crop production effectively. The model simulated soil mineral nitrogen (N) concentrations, particularly ammonium (NH 4 + ), reasonably, but the model significantly underestimated soil nitrate (NO 3 - ) concentration under both systems. In general, the model effectively simulated the dynamics and the magnitude of daily N 2 O flux over the whole experimental period in grain-cropland (r=0.16, ME=-0.81gNha -1 day -1 ), with reasonable agreement between measured and modelled N 2 O fluxes for the mown-grassland (r=0.63, ME=-0.65gNha -1 day -1 ). Our results indicate that DailyDayCent has potential for use as a tool for predicting overall N 2 O emissions in the study region. However, in-depth analysis shows some systematic discrepancies between measured and simulated N 2 O fluxes on a daily basis. The current exercise suggests that the DailyDayCent may need improvement, particularly the sub-module responsible for N transformations, for better simulating soil mineral N, especially soil NO 3 - concentration, and N 2 O flux on a daily basis. The sensitivity analysis shows that many factors such as climate change, N-fertilizer use, input uncertainty and parameter value could influence the simulation of N 2 O emissions. Sensitivity estimation also helped to identify critical parameters, which need careful estimation or site

  4. Mechanical Models of Fault-Related Folding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, A. M.

    2003-01-09

    The subject of the proposed research is fault-related folding and ground deformation. The results are relevant to oil-producing structures throughout the world, to understanding of damage that has been observed along and near earthquake ruptures, and to earthquake-producing structures in California and other tectonically-active areas. The objectives of the proposed research were to provide both a unified, mechanical infrastructure for studies of fault-related foldings and to present the results in computer programs that have graphical users interfaces (GUIs) so that structural geologists and geophysicists can model a wide variety of fault-related folds (FaRFs).

  5. The relationships among Muslim Uyghur and Kazakh disabled elders' life satisfaction, activity of daily living, and informal family caregiver's burden, depression, and life satisfaction in far western China: A structural equation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wen Ting; He, Bin; Wang, Yu Huan; Wang, Mei Yan; Chen, Xue Feng; Wu, Fu Chen; Yang, Xue

    2017-04-01

    1 Hypothesis Disabled elders' activities of daily living, caregiver burden, caregiver depression, and caregivers' life satisfaction are significantly related to the life satisfaction of elderly people with disability. 2 Hypothesis There are direct and indirect effects between the life satisfaction of elders, disabled elders' activities of daily living, and family caregivers' factors. This study explored the interrelationships of disabled elders' life satisfaction and activities of daily living, caregivers' factors (burden, depression, and life satisfaction) through a structural equation model. In total, 621 dyads of disabled elders and informal family caregivers completed questionnaires during face-to-face interviews in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region from September 2013 to January 2014. Activity of daily living exerted a direct effect on life satisfaction of disabled elders and 30.4% indirect effect through caregivers' factors. Caregiver burden had a 60.0% direct effect on life satisfaction of disabled elders and a 40.0% indirect effect through the caregiver depression. Caregiver depression showed 76% direct effect on life satisfaction of disabled elders and 24% indirect effect through caregivers' life satisfaction. Direct relationships between activity of daily living and caregiver burden, caregiver burden and caregiver depression, and caregiver depression and caregivers' life satisfaction were observed. Activity of daily living had a 91.3% indirect effect on caregiver depression mediated by caregiver burden; caregiver burden had a 40.0% indirect effect on caregivers' life satisfaction mediated by caregiver depression. Results provide useful information for nurses and policymakers and shed light on the need to consider caregivers' factors in improving care recipients' life satisfaction. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  6. Predictive model accuracy in estimating last Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) intake from plasma and whole blood cannabinoid concentrations in chronic, daily cannabis smokers administered subchronic oral THC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karschner, Erin L; Schwope, David M; Schwilke, Eugene W; Goodwin, Robert S; Kelly, Deanna L; Gorelick, David A; Huestis, Marilyn A

    2012-10-01

    Determining time since last cannabis/Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) exposure is important in clinical, workplace, and forensic settings. Mathematical models calculating time of last exposure from whole blood concentrations typically employ a theoretical 0.5 whole blood-to-plasma (WB/P) ratio. No studies previously evaluated predictive models utilizing empirically-derived WB/P ratios, or whole blood cannabinoid pharmacokinetics after subchronic THC dosing. Ten male chronic, daily cannabis smokers received escalating around-the-clock oral THC (40-120 mg daily) for 8 days. Cannabinoids were quantified in whole blood and plasma by two-dimensional gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Maximum whole blood THC occurred 3.0 h after the first oral THC dose and 103.5h (4.3 days) during multiple THC dosing. Median WB/P ratios were THC 0.63 (n=196), 11-hydroxy-THC 0.60 (n=189), and 11-nor-9-carboxy-THC (THCCOOH) 0.55 (n=200). Predictive models utilizing these WB/P ratios accurately estimated last cannabis exposure in 96% and 100% of specimens collected within 1-5h after a single oral THC dose and throughout multiple dosing, respectively. Models were only 60% and 12.5% accurate 12.5 and 22.5h after the last THC dose, respectively. Predictive models estimating time since last cannabis intake from whole blood and plasma cannabinoid concentrations were inaccurate during abstinence, but highly accurate during active THC dosing. THC redistribution from large cannabinoid body stores and high circulating THCCOOH concentrations create different pharmacokinetic profiles than those in less than daily cannabis smokers that were used to derive the models. Thus, the models do not accurately predict time of last THC intake in individuals consuming THC daily. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  7. Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2003-01-01

    To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems, on

  8. Anxiety Sensitivity and Smoking Behavior Among Trauma-Exposed Daily Smokers: The Explanatory Role of Smoking-Related Avoidance and Inflexibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakhshaie, Jafar; Zvolensky, Michael J; Salazar, Adriana; Vujanovic, Anka A; Schmidt, Norman B

    2016-01-01

    Anxiety sensitivity (AS), defined as the extent to which individuals believe that anxiety-related sensations have harmful consequences, is associated with smoking processes and poorer clinical outcomes among trauma-exposed smokers. Yet the specific mechanisms underlying this association are unclear. Smoking-specific avoidance and inflexibility is a construct implicated in multiple manifestations of mood regulation that may underlie smoking behavior. The current study examined the explanatory role of smoking-specific avoidance and inflexibility in terms of the relation between AS and indices of smoking behavior among trauma-exposed smokers. The sample consisted of 217 treatment-seeking adult smokers (44% female; M age = 37.8; SD = 13.2; age range: 18-65 years), who were exposed to at least one lifetime Criterion A trauma event (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders [4th ed., text rev.; DSM-IV-TR] Criterion A for trauma exposure). Bootstrap analysis (5,000 re-samples) revealed that AS was indirectly related to the (a) number of cigarettes smoked per day, (b) number of years being a daily smoker, (c) number of failed quit attempts, and (d) heaviness of smoking index among trauma-exposed smokers through its relation with smoking-specific avoidance and inflexibility. These findings provide initial evidence suggesting that smoking-specific avoidance and inflexibility may be an important construct in better understanding AS-smoking relations among trauma-exposed smokers. Future work is needed to explore the extent to which smoking-specific avoidance and inflexibility account for relations between AS and other smoking processes (e.g., withdrawal, cessation outcome) in the context of trauma and smoking comorbidity. © The Author(s) 2015.

  9. Relating Derived Relations as a Model of Analogical Reasoning: Reaction Times and Event-Related Potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes-Holmes, Dermot; Regan, Donal; Barnes-Holmes, Yvonne; Commins, Sean; Walsh, Derek; Stewart, Ian; Smeets, Paul M.; Whelan, Robert; Dymond, Simon

    2005-01-01

    The current study aimed to test a Relational Frame Theory (RFT) model of analogical reasoning based on the relating of derived same and derived difference relations. Experiment 1 recorded reaction time measures of similar-similar (e.g., "apple is to orange as dog is to cat") versus different-different (e.g., "he is to his brother as…

  10. A prospective, observational, open-label, multicentre study to investigate the daily treatment practice of ranibizumab in patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asten, Freekje; Evers-Birkenkamp, Kim U; van Lith-Verhoeven, Janneke J C; de Jong-Hesse, Yvonne; Hoppenreijs, Vincent P T; Hommersom, Richard F; Scholten, Agnes M; Hoyng, Carel B; Klaver, Johannes H J

    2015-03-01

    The HELIOS (Health Economics with Lucentis in Observational Settings) study was designed on request of the Dutch Health Authority for an observational study to assess the effectiveness and safety of ranibizumab for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (wet AMD) in daily practice. The HELIOS study was a 2-year prospective, observational, open-label, multicentre study involving 14 sites. Patients with wet AMD were enrolled and observed for a period of 24 months. The data were collected at baseline and at the visits closest around the time-points 3, 6, 12, 18 and 24 months after inclusion. Treatment with ranibizumab resulted in prevention of vision loss. The mean ETDRS score increased from 45.1 letters at baseline to 48.5 letters at 24 months. This was achieved with a mean of 7.8 injections over 24 months. Stabilization of visual acuity was also reflected by the scores on the quality of life EQ-5D questionnaire, which did not significantly change over the study period. The more subjective EQ-VAS questionnaire showed an overall improvement. The VFQ-25 questionnaire was also mostly stable over time. After 24 months, 32.2% of the patients gained ≥1 letter and 17.1% gained >15 letters. Patients completing the loading phase were better responders, as demonstrated by increased long-term visual acuity. In addition, ranibizumab was well tolerated and had a safety profile commonly seen in routine clinical practice. This study demonstrates that also in daily practice ranibizumab was effective in preventing vision loss over a period of 24 months. No new safety findings were identified. © 2014 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Treatment of chemotherapy-induced neutropenia in a rat model by using multiple daily doses of oral administration of G-CSF-containing nanoparticles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Fang-Yi; Chuang, Er-Yuan; Lin, Po-Yen; Chou, Yi-Chun; Chen, Chiung-Tong; Mi, Fwu-Long; Wey, Shiaw-Pyng; Yen, Tzu-Chen; Lin, Kun-Ju; Sung, Hsing-Wen

    2014-04-01

    Chemotherapy-induced neutropenia often increases the likelihood of life-threatening infections. In this study, a nanoparticle (NP) system composed of chitosan and poly(γ-glutamic acid) conjugated with diethylene triamine pentaacetic acid (γPGA-DTPA) was prepared for oral delivery of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF), a hematopoietic growth factor. The therapeutic potential of this NP system for daily administration of G-CSF to treat neutropenia associated with chemotherapy was evaluated in a rat model. In vitro results indicate that the procedures of NP loading and release preserved the structural integrity and bioactivity of the G-CSF molecules adequately. Those results further demonstrated the enzymatic inhibition activity of γPGA-DTPA towards G-CSF against intestinal proteases. Additionally, the in vivo biodistribution study clearly identified accumulations of G-CSF in the heart, liver, bone marrow, and urinary bladder, an indication of systemic absorption of G-CSF; its relative bioavailability was approximately 13.6%. Moreover, significant glucose uptake was observed in bone marrow during G-CSF treatment, suggesting increased bone marrow metabolism and neutrophil production. Consequently, neutrophil count in the blood increased in a sustained manner; this fact may help a patient's immune system recover from the side effects of chemotherapy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Daily chronomics of proteomic profile in aging and rotenone-induced Parkinson's disease model in male Wistar rat and its modulation by melatonin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagota, Anita; Mattam, Ushodaya

    2017-08-01

    Aging is associated with changes in several basic parameters of circadian timing system (CTS) in mammals leading to circadian dysfunction. We had reported earlier that upon aging and in rotenone induced Parkinson's disease (RIPD) rat model there were significant alterations in the core clock genes expression levels and daily pulses. To identify biomarkers of aging and PD chronomics of proteomic day-night profiles in suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN), pineal and substantia nigra (SN) in 3 month (m), 12, 24 m and RIPD rat model were studied at two time points i.e. Zeitgeber Time (ZT)-6 (mid-day) and ZT-18 (mid-night). Proteome analysis was done by using two dimensional (2-D) electrophoresis and the spots showing robust day-night variations were identified by using MALDI TOF/TOF analysis. In 3 m rats the number of proteins showing day-night variations were relatively more than 12, 24 m and RIPD rat model in SCN and SN. But in pineal there was increase in number of protein spots showing day-night variations in 24 m. Mass spectroscopy of the protein spots showing robust day night variation in aging and RIPD rats were identified. As melatonin, a multitasking molecule, an endogenous synchronizer of rhythm, an antioxidant and an antiaging drug, declines with aging, the effects of melatonin administration on differential alterations in chronomics of 2-D protein profiles in aging and RIPD male Wistar rats were studied. We report here that the melatonin could be playing an important role in modulating the chronomics of 2-D protein profiles. Additionally, various proteins were identified for the first time in this study showing significant day night variation in SCN, pineal and SN may prove useful towards targeting novel treatments for circadian dysfunction, good health and longevity.

  13. Evaluation and adjustment of description of denitrification in the DailyDayCent and COUP models based on N2 and N2O laboratory incubation system measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosz, Balázs; Well, Reinhard; Dannenmann, Michael; Dechow, René; Kitzler, Barbara; Michel, Kerstin; Reent Köster, Jan

    2017-04-01

    Denitrification is an anaerobic key process by microbes where the NO3- is step-by-step reduced and emitted as NO, N2O and finally N2 gas from the soil. The accurate knowledge of the reduction of nitrate (NO3-) and nitrite (NO2-) to N2O and molecular N2 is important because the N2O fraction is further reduced to N2 and constitutes the main emission source of this greenhouse gas from agricultural soils. Hence, our understanding and ability to quantify soil denitrification is crucial for mitigating nitrogen fertilizer loss as well as for reducing N2O emissions. Models can be an important tool to predict mitigation effects and help to develop climate smart mitigation strategies. Ideally, commonly used biogeochemical models could provide adequate predictions of denitrification processes of agricultural soils but often simplified process descriptions and inadequate model parameters prevent models from simulating adequate fluxes of N2 and N2O on field scale. Model development and parametrization often suffers from limited availability of empirical data describing denitrification processes in agricultural soils. While in many studies N2O emissions are used to develop and train models, detailed measurements on NO, N2O, N2 fluxes and concentrations and related soil conditions are necessary to develop and test adequate model algorithms. Composition of denitrifying communities, coinciding effects of management and local conditions on the development of denitrification hotspots are highly variable in space and time. To address this issue the coordinated research unit „Denitrification in Agricultural Soils: Integrated Control and Modelling at Various Scales (DASIM)" was initiated to more closely investigate N-fluxes caused by denitrification in response to environmental effects, soil properties and microbial communities. Data suitable to validate denitrification models are still scarce due to previous technical and/or methodical limitations of measuring N2 fluxes, but large

  14. Animal models of age related macular degeneration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennesi, Mark E.; Neuringer, Martha; Courtney, Robert J.

    2013-01-01

    Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of vision loss of those over the age of 65 in the industrialized world. The prevalence and need to develop effective treatments for AMD has lead to the development of multiple animal models. AMD is a complex and heterogeneous disease that involves the interaction of both genetic and environmental factors with the unique anatomy of the human macula. Models in mice, rats, rabbits, pigs and non-human primates have recreated many of the histological features of AMD and provided much insight into the underlying pathological mechanisms of this disease. In spite of the large number of models developed, no one model yet recapitulates all of the features of human AMD. However, these models have helped reveal the roles of chronic oxidative damage, inflammation and immune dysregulation, and lipid metabolism in the development of AMD. Models for induced choroidal neovascularization have served as the backbone for testing new therapies. This article will review the diversity of animal models that exist for AMD as well as their strengths and limitations. PMID:22705444

  15. Changes in visual acuity in patients with wet age-related macular degeneration treated with intravitreal ranibizumab in daily clinical practice: the LUMIERE study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Salomon Y; Mimoun, Gerard; Oubraham, Hassiba; Zourdani, Alain; Malbrel, Christian; Queré, Stephane; Schneider, Véronique

    2013-03-01

    To survey compliance with recommended intravitreal ranibizumab treatment protocols in daily clinical practice in France, with reference to outcomes. A retrospective, descriptive, observational study in patients with subfoveal wet age-related macular degeneration treated with ranibizumab. All historical data for the study period, including demographic, treatment, and disease details and visual acuity measurements (baseline, Month 3, and Month 12), were recorded retrospectively at least 12 months after the beginning of treatment. In 551 patients followed by 16 ophthalmologists, 12 months of intravitreal ranibizumab treatment induced a mean visual acuity gain of 3.2 ± 14.8 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study-equivalent letters. Fewer than 40% of patients received the recommended treatment of initial 3 monthly injections. More than 50% had to wait >8 days between diagnosis and treatment. At Month 3, visual acuity gain was greater in patients who had received recommended induction and in whom treatment was initiated quickly. At Month 12, the induction-related effect had largely disappeared but the time-to-treatment effect persisted. Patients had an average of 5.1 injections (2.6 during induction period). No patients were monitored monthly as stipulated in the guidelines. Although poor compliance with recommendations has been reflected in mediocre outcomes, there is evidence that practice is improving.

  16. An analysis of the daily precipitation variability in the Himalayan orogen using a statistical parameterisation and its potential in driving landscape evolution models with stochastic climatic forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deal, Eric; Braun, Jean

    2015-04-01

    A current challenge in landscape evolution modelling is to integrate realistic precipitation patterns and behaviour into longterm fluvial erosion models. The effect of precipitation on fluvial erosion can be subtle as well as nonlinear, implying that changes in climate (e.g. precipitation magnitude or storminess) may have unexpected outcomes in terms of erosion rates. For example Tucker and Bras (2000) show theoretically that changes in the variability of precipitation (storminess) alone can influence erosion rate across a landscape. To complicate the situation further, topography, ultimately driven by tectonic uplift but shaped by erosion, has a major influence on the distribution and style of precipitation. Therefore, in order to untangle the coupling between climate, erosion and tectonics in an actively uplifting orogen where fluvial erosion is dominant it is important to understand how the 'rain dial' used in a landscape evolution model (LEM) corresponds to real precipitation patterns. One issue with the parameterisation of rainfall for use in an LEM is the difference between the timescales for precipitation (≤ 1 year) and landscape evolution (> 103 years). As a result, precipitation patterns must be upscaled before being integrated into a model. The relevant question then becomes: What is the most appropriate measure of precipitation on a millennial timescale? Previous work (Tucker and Bras, 2000; Lague, 2005) has shown that precipitation can be properly upscaled by taking into account its variable nature, along with its average magnitude. This captures the relative size and frequency of extreme events, ensuring a more accurate characterisation of the integrated effects of precipitation on erosion over long periods of time. In light of this work, we present a statistical parameterisation that accurately models the mean and daily variability of ground based (APHRODITE) and remotely sensed (TRMM) precipitation data in the Himalayan orogen with only a few

  17. Constitutive relations for multiphase flow modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacobs, H.; Vaeth, L.; Thurnay, K. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbH Technik und Umwelt (Germany). Inst. fuer Neutronenphysik und Reaktortechnik

    1998-01-01

    The constitutive relations that are used in the three-field fluid dynamics code IVA-KA for determining the drag in three-phase mixtures and the heat transferred by radiation are described together with some comparisons of calculational results with experiments. In these experiments (QUEOS), large quantities of solid particles are injected into water. Potential deficiencies of the present drag model are discussed. (author)

  18. Continuous Sub-daily Rainfall Simulation for Regional Flood Risk Assessment - Modelling of Spatio-temporal Correlation Structure of Extreme Precipitation in the Austrian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinas, J. L.; Nester, T.; Komma, J.; Bloeschl, G.

    2017-12-01

    Generation of realistic synthetic spatial rainfall is of pivotal importance for assessing regional hydroclimatic hazard as the input for long term rainfall-runoff simulations. The correct reproduction of observed rainfall characteristics, such as regional intensity-duration-frequency curves, and spatial and temporal correlations is necessary to adequately model the magnitude and frequency of the flood peaks, by reproducing antecedent soil moisture conditions before extreme rainfall events, and joint probability of flood waves at confluences. In this work, a modification of the model presented by Bardossy and Platte (1992), where precipitation is first modeled on a station basis as a multivariate autoregressive model (mAr) in a Normal space. The spatial and temporal correlation structures are imposed in the Normal space, allowing for a different temporal autocorrelation parameter for each station, and simultaneously ensuring the positive-definiteness of the correlation matrix of the mAr errors. The Normal rainfall is then transformed to a Gamma-distributed space, with parameters varying monthly according to a sinusoidal function, in order to adapt to the observed rainfall seasonality. One of the main differences with the original model is the simulation time-step, reduced from 24h to 6h. Due to a larger availability of daily rainfall data, as opposite to sub-daily (e.g. hourly), the parameters of the Gamma distributions are calibrated to reproduce simultaneously a series of daily rainfall characteristics (mean daily rainfall, standard deviations of daily rainfall, and 24h intensity-duration-frequency [IDF] curves), as well as other aggregated rainfall measures (mean annual rainfall, and monthly rainfall). The calibration of the spatial and temporal correlation parameters is performed in a way that the catchment-averaged IDF curves aggregated at different temporal scales fit the measured ones. The rainfall model is used to generate 10.000 years of synthetic

  19. Estimation of daily reference evapotranspiration (ETo) using artificial intelligence methods: Offering a new approach for lagged ETo data-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehdizadeh, Saeid

    2018-04-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is considered as a key factor in hydrological and climatological studies, agricultural water management, irrigation scheduling, etc. It can be directly measured using lysimeters. Moreover, other methods such as empirical equations and artificial intelligence methods can be used to model ET. In the recent years, artificial intelligence methods have been widely utilized to estimate reference evapotranspiration (ETo). In the present study, local and external performances of multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and gene expression programming (GEP) were assessed for estimating daily ETo. For this aim, daily weather data of six stations with different climates in Iran, namely Urmia and Tabriz (semi-arid), Isfahan and Shiraz (arid), Yazd and Zahedan (hyper-arid) were employed during 2000-2014. Two types of input patterns consisting of weather data-based and lagged ETo data-based scenarios were considered to develop the models. Four statistical indicators including root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R2), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to check the accuracy of models. The local performance of models revealed that the MARS and GEP approaches have the capability to estimate daily ETo using the meteorological parameters and the lagged ETo data as inputs. Nevertheless, the MARS had the best performance in the weather data-based scenarios. On the other hand, considerable differences were not observed in the models' accuracy for the lagged ETo data-based scenarios. In the innovation of this study, novel hybrid models were proposed in the lagged ETo data-based scenarios through combination of MARS and GEP models with autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) time series model. It was concluded that the proposed novel models named MARS-ARCH and GEP-ARCH improved the performance of ETo modeling compared to the single MARS and GEP. In addition, the external

  20. Daily changes of radon concentration in soil gas under influence of atmospheric factors: room temperature, soil surface temperature and relative humidity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lara, Evelise G.; Oliveira, Arno Heeren de, E-mail: evelise.lara@gmail.com, E-mail: heeren@nuclear.ufmg.br [Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Departamento de Engenharia Nuclear; Rocha, Zildete; Rios, Francisco Javier, E-mail: rochaz@cdtn.br, E-mail: javier@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    This work aims at relating the daily change in the radon concentration in soil gas in a Red Yellow Acrisol (SiBCS) under influence of atmospheric factors: room temperature, soil surface temperature and relative humidity. The {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th, U content and permeability were also performed. The measurements of radon soil gas were carried out by using an AlphaGUARD monitor. The {sup 226}Ra activity concentration was made by Gamma Spectrometry (HPGe); the permeability was carried out using the RADON-JOK permeameter and ICP-MS analysis to {sup 232}Th and U content. The soil permeability is 5.0 x 10{sup -12}, which is considered average. The {sup 226}Ra (22.2 ± 0.3 Bq.m{sup -3}); U content (73.4 ± 3.6 Bq.kg{sup -1}) and {sup 232}Th content (55.3 ± 4.0 Bq.kg{sup -1}) were considered above of average concentrations, according to mean values for soils typical (~ 35.0 Bq.kg{sup -1}) by UNSCEAR. The results showed a difference of 26.0% between the highest and the lowest concentration of radon in soil gas: at midnight (15.5 ± 1.0 kBq.m{sup -3}) and 3:00 pm, the highest mean radon concentration (21.0 ± 1.0 kBq.m{sup -3}). The room temperature and surface soil temperature showed equivalent behavior and the surface soil temperature slightly below room temperature during the entire monitoring time. Nevertheless, the relative humidity showed the highest cyclical behavior, showing a higher relationship with the radon concentration in soil gas. (author)

  1. Daily changes of radon concentration in soil gas under influence of atmospheric factors: room temperature, soil surface temperature and relative humidity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lara, Evelise G.; Oliveira, Arno Heeren de

    2015-01-01

    This work aims at relating the daily change in the radon concentration in soil gas in a Red Yellow Acrisol (SiBCS) under influence of atmospheric factors: room temperature, soil surface temperature and relative humidity. The 226 Ra, 232 Th, U content and permeability were also performed. The measurements of radon soil gas were carried out by using an AlphaGUARD monitor. The 226 Ra activity concentration was made by Gamma Spectrometry (HPGe); the permeability was carried out using the RADON-JOK permeameter and ICP-MS analysis to 232 Th and U content. The soil permeability is 5.0 x 10 -12 , which is considered average. The 226 Ra (22.2 ± 0.3 Bq.m -3 ); U content (73.4 ± 3.6 Bq.kg -1 ) and 232 Th content (55.3 ± 4.0 Bq.kg -1 ) were considered above of average concentrations, according to mean values for soils typical (~ 35.0 Bq.kg -1 ) by UNSCEAR. The results showed a difference of 26.0% between the highest and the lowest concentration of radon in soil gas: at midnight (15.5 ± 1.0 kBq.m -3 ) and 3:00 pm, the highest mean radon concentration (21.0 ± 1.0 kBq.m -3 ). The room temperature and surface soil temperature showed equivalent behavior and the surface soil temperature slightly below room temperature during the entire monitoring time. Nevertheless, the relative humidity showed the highest cyclical behavior, showing a higher relationship with the radon concentration in soil gas. (author)

  2. The night and day of dung beetles (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae in the Serra do Japi, Brazil: elytra colour related to daily activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malva Isabel Medina Hernández

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present study 387 dung beetles (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae were surveyed at the Serra do Japi, in the Atlantic Forest in São Paulo State, with four baited pitfall traps during the months of December, 1998, and January, 1999 during eight 24 hour cycles. A total of 30 species were identified and temporal variation in activity patterns among the species shows a specialization in the use of food resources: 9 species were classified as nocturnal and 13 as diurnal. The daily activity pattern of dung beetles does not necessarily correspond to the taxonomic classification, but is strongly related to the colouring of species, determined by predominant elytra colour: nocturnal species have 89 % more chances of being black as opposed to colourful. Black nocturnal species might have evolved as an interspecific adaptation to avoid predation (cryptic colouring. Among the colourful diurnal dung beetles, measure of body length of each species shows that development of bright colouring was more often found in medium to large species, which suggests that colouring evolved as a response to intraspecific pressures, important in agonistic encounters among males.

  3. Greater Independence in Activities of Daily Living is Associated with Higher Health-Related Quality of Life Scores in Nursing Home Residents with Dementia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charice S. Chan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Health-related quality of life (HRQL for nursing home residents is important, however, the concept of quality of life is broad, encompasses many domains and is difficult to assess in people with dementia. Basic activities of daily living (ADL are measured routinely in nursing homes using the Resident Assessment Instrument-Minimum Data Set Version 2.0 (RAI-MDS and Functional Independence Measure (FIM instrument. We examined the relationship between HRQL and ADL to assess the future possibility of ADL dependency level serving as a surrogate measure of HRQL in residents with dementia. To assess ADL, measures derived from the RAI-MDS and FIM data were gathered for 111 residents at the beginning of our study and at 6-month follow-up. Higher scores for independence in ADL were correlated with higher scores for a disease-specific HRQL measure, the Quality of Life—Alzheimer’s Disease Scale. Preliminary evidence suggests that FIM-assessed ADL is associated with HRQL for these residents. The associations of the dressing and toileting items with HRQL were particularly strong. This finding suggests the importance of ADL function in HRQL. The RAI-MDS ADL scales should be used with caution to evaluate HRQL.

  4. Modeling patterns in data using linear and related models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engelhardt, M.E.

    1996-06-01

    This report considers the use of linear models for analyzing data related to reliability and safety issues of the type usually associated with nuclear power plants. The report discusses some of the general results of linear regression analysis, such as the model assumptions and properties of the estimators of the parameters. The results are motivated with examples of operational data. Results about the important case of a linear regression model with one covariate are covered in detail. This case includes analysis of time trends. The analysis is applied with two different sets of time trend data. Diagnostic procedures and tests for the adequacy of the model are discussed. Some related methods such as weighted regression and nonlinear models are also considered. A discussion of the general linear model is also included. Appendix A gives some basic SAS programs and outputs for some of the analyses discussed in the body of the report. Appendix B is a review of some of the matrix theoretic results which are useful in the development of linear models

  5. Low bone mineral density in COPD patients with osteoporosis is related to low daily physical activity and high COPD assessment test scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu WT

    2015-09-01

    , all P<0.05 and T-score (r=0.471, 0.531, 0.459, respectively, all P<0.05, whereas CAT scores were significantly negatively correlated with (total hip and femoral neck BMD (r=-0.412, -0.552, respectively, P<0.05 and (lumbar spine, total hip, and femoral neck T-score (r=-0.389, -0.429, -0.543, respectively, P<0.05. Low femoral neck BMD in COPD patients was related to high CAT scores. Our results show no significant difference in desaturation index, low SpO2, and inflammatory markers (IL-6, TNF-α, IL-8/CXCL8, CRP, and 8-isoprostane between the two groups. Chest physicians should be aware that COPD patients with OP have low DPA and high CAT scores.Keywords: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, osteoporosis, daily physical activity, COPD assessment test, bone mineral density

  6. The biological control of voluntary exercise, spontaneous physical activity and daily energy expenditure in relation to obesity : human and rodent perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garland, Theodore; Schutz, Heidi; Chappell, Mark A.; Keeney, Brooke K.; Meek, Thomas H.; Copes, Lynn E.; Acosta, Wendy; Drenowatz, Clemens; Maciel, Robert C.; van Dijk, Gertjan; Kotz, Catherine M.; Eisenmann, Joey C.; Garland, Jr.

    Mammals expend energy in many ways, including basic cellular maintenance and repair, digestion, thermoregulation, locomotion, growth and reproduction. These processes can vary tremendously among species and individuals, potentially leading to large variation in daily energy expenditure (DEE).

  7. Lattice Boltzmann model for numerical relativity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilseven, E; Mendoza, M

    2016-02-01

    In the Z4 formulation, Einstein equations are written as a set of flux conservative first-order hyperbolic equations that resemble fluid dynamics equations. Based on this formulation, we construct a lattice Boltzmann model for numerical relativity and validate it with well-established tests, also known as "apples with apples." Furthermore, we find that by increasing the relaxation time, we gain stability at the cost of losing accuracy, and by decreasing the lattice spacings while keeping a constant numerical diffusivity, the accuracy and stability of our simulations improve. Finally, in order to show the potential of our approach, a linear scaling law for parallelization with respect to number of CPU cores is demonstrated. Our model represents the first step in using lattice kinetic theory to solve gravitational problems.

  8. The daily risk of bacteremia during hospitalization and associated 30-day mortality evaluated in relation to the traditional classification of bacteremia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Stig Lønberg; Lassen, Annmarie Touborg; Kolmos, Hans Jørn

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We investigated the overall and daily incidence of bacteremia among hospitalized patients and evaluated the traditional classification of bacteremia (community-onset vs nosocomial based on a 48-hour time window) by means of the daily incidence and associated 30-day mortality. METHODS:...... of bacteremia during the first 2 days followed by lower incidences that were constant beyond day 12. Thirty-day mortality was 18%-21% for patients with bacteremia on the first 2 days and 25%-35% thereafter. Our findings support the traditional classification of bacteremia.......BACKGROUND: We investigated the overall and daily incidence of bacteremia among hospitalized patients and evaluated the traditional classification of bacteremia (community-onset vs nosocomial based on a 48-hour time window) by means of the daily incidence and associated 30-day mortality. METHODS...... as the daily incidence of bacteremia per 10,000 bed-days and associated 30-day mortality. RESULTS: We included 724,339 admissions and 10,281 bacteremias for an overall incidence of 14.2 per 1,000 admissions and 23.6 per 10,000 bed-days. The daily incidence was highest on the first 2 days of admission followed...

  9. Validation of the Persian version of the Daily Spiritual Experiences Scale (DSES) in Pregnant Women: A Proper Tool to Assess Spirituality Related to Mental Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saffari, Mohsen; Amini, Hossein; Sheykh-Oliya, Zarindokht; Pakpour, Amir H; Koenig, Harold G

    2017-12-01

    Assessing spirituality in healthy pregnant women may lead to supportive interventions that will improve their care. A psychometrically valid measure such as the Daily Spiritual Experiences Scale (DSES) may be helpful in this regard. The current study sought to adapt a Persian version of DSES for use in pregnancy. A total of 377 pregnant women were recruited from three general hospitals located in Tehran, Iran. Administered scales were the DSES, Duke University Religion Index, Santa Clara Strength of Religious Faith scale, and Depression Anxiety Stress Scale, as well as demographic measures. Reliability of the DSES was tested using Cronbach's alpha for internal consistency and the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for test-retest stability. Scale validity was assessed by criterion-related tests, known-groups comparison, and exploratory factor analysis. Participant's mean age was 27.7 (4.1), and most were nulliparous (70%). The correlation coefficient between individual items on the scale and the total score was greater than 0.30 in most cases. Cronbach's alpha for the scale was 0.90. The ICC for 2-week test-retest reliability was high (0.86). Relationships between similar and dissimilar scales indicated acceptable convergent and divergent validity. The factor structure of the scale indicated a single factor that explained 59% of the variance. The DSES was found to be a reliable and valid measure of spirituality in pregnant Iranian women. This scale may be used to examine the relationship between spirituality and health outcomes, research that may lead to supportive interventions in this population.

  10. A New Hybrid Spatio-temporal Model for Estimating Daily Multi-year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloog, Itai; Chudnovsky, Alexandra A.; Just, Allan C.; Nordio, Francesco; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Schwartz, Joel

    2014-01-01

    The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter PM(sub 2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data.We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM(sub 2.5) at a 1X 1 km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1 X 1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM(sub 2.5) measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R(sup 2) = 0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R(sup 2) = 0.87, R(sup)2 = 0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions

  11. Relating derived relations as a model of analogical reasoning: reaction times and event-related potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes-Holmes, Dermot; Regan, Donal; Barnes-Holmes, Yvonne; Commins, Sean; Walsh, Derek; Stewart, Ian; Smeets, Paul M; Whelan, Robert; Dymond, Simon

    2005-11-01

    The current study aimed to test a Relational Frame Theory (RFT) model of analogical reasoning based on the relating of derived same and derived difference relations. Experiment 1 recorded reaction time measures of similar-similar (e.g., "apple is to orange as dog is to cat") versus different-different (e.g., "he is to his brother as chalk is to cheese") derived relational responding, in both speed-contingent and speed-noncontingent conditions. Experiment 2 examined the event-related potentials (ERPs) associated with these two response patterns. Both experiments showed similar-similar responding to be significantly faster than different-different responding. Experiment 2 revealed significant differences between the waveforms of the two response patterns in the left-hemispheric prefrontal regions; different-different waveforms were significantly more negative than similar-similar waveforms. The behavioral and neurophysiological data support the RFT prediction that, all things being equal, similar-similar responding is relationally "simpler" than, and functionally distinct from, different-different analogical responding. The ERP data were fully consistent with findings in the neurocognitive literature on analogy. These findings strengthen the validity of the RFT model of analogical reasoning and supplement the behavior-analytic approach to analogy based on the relating of derived relations.

  12. Daily Emotional and Physical Reactivity to Stressors Among Widowed and Married Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Objectives. Widowhood may result in declines in health and potentially stressful changes to daily routines. However, little research has examined how daily stressors contribute to physical and emotional well-being in widowhood. The objectives of the current study were to examine daily stressor exposure and reactivity in widowed versus married older adults. Method. Participants included all 100 widowed and 342 married adults aged 65 and older from the National Study of Daily Experiences, a daily diary study from the second wave of the Midlife in the United States. Daily stressors were measured using the Daily Inventory of Stressful Events; multilevel modeling assessed daily reactivity to stressors using daily negative affect (emotional reactivity) and daily physical symptoms (physical reactivity) as outcomes. Results. Married participants reported more stressors in general, and specifically more interpersonal stressors (e.g., arguments). Both married and widowed participants were reactive to daily stressors. Married participants were physically and emotionally reactive to interpersonal stressors. Widowed participants were more physically reactive to home-related stressors. Discussion. Attention to the types of daily stressors that widowed older adults experience in daily life and the potential physical effects of daily stressors during widowhood may help to alleviate some of the physical distress that widowed older adults may experience. PMID:23685921

  13. Daily emotional and physical reactivity to stressors among widowed and married older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahn, Elizabeth A; Cichy, Kelly E; Small, Brent J; Almeida, David M

    2014-01-01

    Widowhood may result in declines in health and potentially stressful changes to daily routines. However, little research has examined how daily stressors contribute to physical and emotional well-being in widowhood. The objectives of the current study were to examine daily stressor exposure and reactivity in widowed versus married older adults. Participants included all 100 widowed and 342 married adults aged 65 and older from the National Study of Daily Experiences, a daily diary study from the second wave of the Midlife in the United States. Daily stressors were measured using the Daily Inventory of Stressful Events; multilevel modeling assessed daily reactivity to stressors using daily negative affect (emotional reactivity) and daily physical symptoms (physical reactivity) as outcomes. Married participants reported more stressors in general, and specifically more interpersonal stressors (e.g., arguments). Both married and widowed participants were reactive to daily stressors. Married participants were physically and emotionally reactive to interpersonal stressors. Widowed participants were more physically reactive to home-related stressors. Attention to the types of daily stressors that widowed older adults experience in daily life and the potential physical effects of daily stressors during widowhood may help to alleviate some of the physical distress that widowed older adults may experience.

  14. Coupling Poisson rectangular pulse and multiplicative microcanonical random cascade models to generate sub-daily precipitation timeseries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohle, Ina; Niebisch, Michael; Müller, Hannes; Schümberg, Sabine; Zha, Tingting; Maurer, Thomas; Hinz, Christoph

    2018-07-01

    To simulate the impacts of within-storm rainfall variabilities on fast hydrological processes, long precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are required. Due to limited availability of observed data such time series are typically obtained from stochastic models. However, most existing rainfall models are limited in their ability to conserve rainfall event statistics which are relevant for hydrological processes. Poisson rectangular pulse models are widely applied to generate long time series of alternating precipitation events durations and mean intensities as well as interstorm period durations. Multiplicative microcanonical random cascade (MRC) models are used to disaggregate precipitation time series from coarse to fine temporal resolution. To overcome the inconsistencies between the temporal structure of the Poisson rectangular pulse model and the MRC model, we developed a new coupling approach by introducing two modifications to the MRC model. These modifications comprise (a) a modified cascade model ("constrained cascade") which preserves the event durations generated by the Poisson rectangular model by constraining the first and last interval of a precipitation event to contain precipitation and (b) continuous sigmoid functions of the multiplicative weights to consider the scale-dependency in the disaggregation of precipitation events of different durations. The constrained cascade model was evaluated in its ability to disaggregate observed precipitation events in comparison to existing MRC models. For that, we used a 20-year record of hourly precipitation at six stations across Germany. The constrained cascade model showed a pronounced better agreement with the observed data in terms of both the temporal pattern of the precipitation time series (e.g. the dry and wet spell durations and autocorrelations) and event characteristics (e.g. intra-event intermittency and intensity fluctuation within events). The constrained cascade model also

  15. Evaluation of the impact of explanatory variables on the accuracy of prediction of daily inflow to the sewage treatment plant by selected models nonlinear

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szeląg Bartosz

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to evaluate the possibility of applying different methods of data mining to model the inflow of sewage into the municipal sewage treatment plant. Prediction models were elaborated using methods of support vector machines (SVM, random forests (RF, k-nearest neighbour (k-NN and of Kernel regression (K. Data consisted of the time series of daily rainfalls, water level measurements in the clarified sewage recipient and the wastewater inflow into the Rzeszow city plant. Results indicate that the best models with one input delayed by 1 day were obtained using the k-NN method while the worst with the K method. For the models with two input variables and one explanatory one the smallest errors were obtained if model inputs were sewage inflow and rainfall data delayed by 1 day and the best fit is provided using RF method while the worst with the K method. In the case of models with three inputs and two explanatory variables, the best results were reported for the SVM and the worst for the K method. In the most of the modelling runs the smallest prediction errors are obtained using the SVM method and the biggest ones with the K method. In the case of the simplest model with one input delayed by 1 day the best results are provided using k-NN method and by the models with two inputs in two modelling runs the RF method appeared as the best.

  16. Associations between ambient air pollution and daily mortality in a cohort of congestive heart failure: Case-crossover and nested case-control analyses using a distributed lag nonlinear model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buteau, Stephane; Goldberg, Mark S; Burnett, Richard T; Gasparrini, Antonio; Valois, Marie-France; Brophy, James M; Crouse, Dan L; Hatzopoulou, Marianne

    2018-04-01

    Persons with congestive heart failure may be at higher risk of the acute effects related to daily fluctuations in ambient air pollution. To meet some of the limitations of previous studies using grouped-analysis, we developed a cohort study of persons with congestive heart failure to estimate whether daily non-accidental mortality were associated with spatially-resolved, daily exposures to ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and ozone (O 3 ), and whether these associations were modified according to a series of indicators potentially reflecting complications or worsening of health. We constructed the cohort from the linkage of administrative health databases. Daily exposure was assigned from different methods we developed previously to predict spatially-resolved, time-dependent concentrations of ambient NO 2 (all year) and O 3 (warm season) at participants' residences. We performed two distinct types of analyses: a case-crossover that contrasts the same person at different times, and a nested case-control that contrasts different persons at similar times. We modelled the effects of air pollution and weather (case-crossover only) on mortality using distributed lag nonlinear models over lags 0 to 3 days. We developed from administrative health data a series of indicators that may reflect the underlying construct of "declining health", and used interactions between these indicators and the cross-basis function for air pollutant to assess potential effect modification. The magnitude of the cumulative as well as the lag-specific estimates of association differed in many instances according to the metric of exposure. Using the back-extrapolation method, which is our preferred exposure model, we found for the case-crossover design a cumulative mean percentage changes (MPC) in daily mortality per interquartile increment in NO 2 (8.8 ppb) of 3.0% (95% CI: -0.9, 6.9%) and for O 3 (16.5 ppb) 3.5% (95% CI: -4.5, 12.1). For O 3 there was strong confounding by weather

  17. Risk considerations related to lung modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masse, R.; Cross, F.T.

    1989-01-01

    Improved lung models provide a more accurate assessment of dose from inhalation exposures and, therefore, more accurate dose-response relationships for risk evaluation and exposure limitation. Epidemiological data for externally irradiated persons indicate that the numbers of excess respiratory tract carcinomas differ in the upper airways, bronchi, and distal lung. Neither their histogenesis and anatomical location nor their progenitor cells are known with sufficient accuracy for accurate assessment of the microdosimetry. The nuclei of sensitive cells generally can be assumed to be distributed at random in the epithelium, beneath the mucus and tips of the beating cilia and cells. In stratified epithelia, basal cells may be considered the only cells at risk. Upper-airway tumors have been observed in both therapeutically irradiated patients and in Hiroshima-Nagasaki survivors. The current International Commission on Radiological Protection Lung-Model Task Group proposes that the upper airways and lung have a similar relative risk coefficient for cancer induction. The partition of the risk weighting factor, therefore, will be proportional to the spontaneous death rate from tumors, and 80% of the weighting factor for the respiratory tract should be attributed to the lung. For Weibel lung-model branching generations 0 to 16 and 17 to 23, the Task Group proposes an 80/20 partition of the risk, i.e., 64% and 16%, respectively, of the total risk. Regarding risk in animals, recent data in rats indicate a significantly lower effectiveness for lung-cancer induction at low doses from insoluble long-lived alpha-emitters than from Rn daughters. These findings are due, in part, to the fact that different regions of the lung are irradiated. Tumors in the lymph nodes are rare in people and animals exposed to radiation.44 references

  18. Managing Daily Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Duchenne / Managing Daily Life Print Email Managing Daily Life Environmental accessibility As the person with Duchenne starts ... such as wider doorways and ramps, can make life easier once the person with Duchenne cannot climb ...

  19. Daily Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These daily weather records were compiled from a subset of stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset. A weather record is...

  20. Teaching Daily Living Skills to Seven Individuals with Severe Intellectual Disabilities: A Comparison of Video Prompting to Video Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannella-Malone, Helen I.; Fleming, Courtney; Chung, Yi-Cheih; Wheeler, Geoffrey M.; Basbagill, Abby R.; Singh, Angella H.

    2011-01-01

    We conducted a systematic replication of Cannella-Malone et al. by comparing the effects of video prompting to video modeling for teaching seven students with severe disabilities to do laundry and wash dishes. The video prompting and video modeling procedures were counterbalanced across tasks and participants and compared in an alternating…

  1. Lysimetric evaluation of the APEX Model to simulate daily ET for irrigated crops in the Texas High Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    The NTT (Nutrient Tracking Tool) was designed to provide an opportunity for all users, including producers, to simulate the complex models, such as APEX (Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender) and associated required databases. The APEX model currently nested within NTT provides estimates of th...

  2. The dynamics of daily events and well-being across cultures: when less is more.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oishi, Shigehiro; Diener, Ed; Choi, Dong-Won; Kim-Prieto, Chu; Choi, Incheol

    2007-10-01

    The authors examined cultural and individual differences in the relation between daily events and daily satisfaction. In a preliminary study, they established cross-cultural equivalence of 50 daily events. In the main study, participants in the United States, Korea, and Japan completed daily surveys on the 50 events and daily satisfaction for 21 days. The multilevel random coefficient model analyses showed that (a) the within-person association between positive events and daily satisfaction was significantly stronger among Asian American, Korean, and Japanese participants than among European American participants and (b) the within-person association between positive events and daily satisfaction was significantly weaker among individuals high in global life satisfaction than among those low in global life satisfaction. The findings demonstrate a weaker effect of positive events on daily well-being among individuals and cultures high in global well-being. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Development of nonlinear empirical models to forecast daily PM2.5 and ozone levels in three large Chinese cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Baolei; Cobourn, W. Geoffrey; Bai, Yuqi

    2016-12-01

    Empirical regression models for next-day forecasting of PM2.5 and O3 air pollution concentrations have been developed and evaluated for three large Chinese cities, Beijing, Nanjing and Guangzhou. The forecast models are empirical nonlinear regression models designed for use in an automated data retrieval and forecasting platform. The PM2.5 model includes an upwind air quality variable, PM24, to account for regional transport of PM2.5, and a persistence variable (previous day PM2.5 concentration). The models were evaluated in the hindcast mode with a two-year air quality and meteorological data set using a leave-one-month-out cross validation method, and in the forecast mode with a one-year air quality and forecasted weather dataset that included forecasted air trajectories. The PM2.5 models performed well in the hindcast mode, with coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.54, 0.65 and 0.64, and normalized mean error (NME) values of 0.40, 0.26 and 0.23 respectively, for the three cities. The O3 models also performed well in the hindcast mode, with R2 values of 0.75, 0.55 and 0.73, and NME values of 0.29, 0.26 and 0.24 in the three cities. The O3 models performed better in summertime than in winter in Beijing and Guangzhou, and captured the O3 variations well all the year round in Nanjing. The overall forecast performance of the PM2.5 and O3 models during the test year varied from fair to good, depending on location. The forecasts were somewhat degraded compared with hindcasts from the same year, depending on the accuracy of the forecasted meteorological input data. For the O3 models, the model forecast accuracy was strongly dependent on the maximum temperature forecasts. For the critical forecasts, involving air quality standard exceedences, the PM2.5 model forecasts were fair to good, and the O3 model forecasts were poor to fair.

  4. Daily temperature changes and variability in ENSEMBLES regional models predictions: Evaluation and intercomparison for the Ebro Valley (NE Iberia)

    KAUST Repository

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; Ló pez-Moreno, Juan Ignacio; McCabe, Matthew; Brunsell, Nathaniel A.; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.

    2014-01-01

    We employ a suite of regional climate models (RCMs) to assess future changes in summer (JJA) maximum temperature (Tmax) over the Ebro basin, the largest hydrological division in the Iberian Peninsula. Under the A1B emission scenario, future changes

  5. A Comparison of SWAT and ANN Models for Daily Runoff Simulation in Different Climatic Zones of Peninsular Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Patricia Jimeno-Sáez; Javier Senent-Aparicio; Julio Pérez-Sánchez; David Pulido-Velazquez

    2018-01-01

    Streamflow data are of prime importance to water-resources planning and management, and the accuracy of their estimation is very important for decision making. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models have been evaluated and compared to find a method to improve streamflow estimation. For a more complete evaluation, the accuracy and ability of these streamflow estimation models was also established separately based on their performance during differe...

  6. Fast-food and full-service restaurant consumption in relation to daily energy and nutrient intakes among US adult cancer survivors, 2003-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Ruopeng; Liu, Junyi

    2013-01-01

    Healthy diet is an essential component in cancer survivorship care planning. Cancer survivors should be particularly prudent regarding their daily food choices, with an aim of ensuring safe consumption, reducing risk of recurrence or other comorbidity, and improving quality of life. We aimed to examine the impacts of fast-food and full-service restaurant consumption on daily energy and nutrient intakes among US adult cancer survivors. Nationally representative data of 1308 adult cancer survivors came from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003-2012 waves. First-difference estimator was adopted to address confounding bias from time-invariant unobservables like personal food/beverage preferences by using within-individual variations in diet and restaurant consumption status between two non-consecutive 24-hour dietary recalls. Fast-food and full-service restaurant consumption, respectively, was associated with an increase in daily total energy intake by 125.97 and 152.26 kcal and sodium intake by 312.47 and 373.75 mg. Fast-food consumption was significantly associated with a decrease in daily vitamin A intake by 119.88 µg and vitamin K intake by 30.48 µg, whereas full-service restaurant consumption was associated with an increase in daily fat intake by 8.99 g and omega-6 fatty acid intake by 3.85 g, and a decrease in vitamin D intake by 0.93 µg. Compared with fast-food and full-service restaurant consumption at home, consumption away from home led to further reduced diet quality. Individualized nutrition counseling and food assistance programs should address cancer survivors' overall dining-out behavior rather than fast-food consumption alone. © The Author(s) 2015.

  7. A simple daily soil-water balance model for estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater recharge in temperate humid areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dripps, W.R.; Bradbury, K.R.

    2007-01-01

    Quantifying the spatial and temporal distribution of natural groundwater recharge is usually a prerequisite for effective groundwater modeling and management. As flow models become increasingly utilized for management decisions, there is an increased need for simple, practical methods to delineate recharge zones and quantify recharge rates. Existing models for estimating recharge distributions are data intensive, require extensive parameterization, and take a significant investment of time in order to establish. The Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey (WGNHS) has developed a simple daily soil-water balance (SWB) model that uses readily available soil, land cover, topographic, and climatic data in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) to estimate the temporal and spatial distribution of groundwater recharge at the watershed scale for temperate humid areas. To demonstrate the methodology and the applicability and performance of the model, two case studies are presented: one for the forested Trout Lake watershed of north central Wisconsin, USA and the other for the urban-agricultural Pheasant Branch Creek watershed of south central Wisconsin, USA. Overall, the SWB model performs well and presents modelers and planners with a practical tool for providing recharge estimates for modeling and water resource planning purposes in humid areas. ?? Springer-Verlag 2007.

  8. A daily salt balance model for stream salinity generation processes following partial clearing from forest to pasture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Bari

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We developed a coupled salt and water balance model to represent the stream salinity generation process following land use changes. The conceptual model consists of three main components with five stores: (i Dry, Wet and Subsurface Stores, (ii a saturated Groundwater Store and (iii a transient Stream zone Store. The Dry and Wet Stores represent the salt and water movement in the unsaturated zone and also the near-stream dynamic saturated areas, responsible for the generation of salt flux associated with surface runoff and interflow. The unsaturated Subsurface Store represents the salt bulge and the salt fluxes. The Groundwater Store comes into play when the groundwater level is at or above the stream invert and quantifies the salt fluxes to the Stream zone Store. In the stream zone module, we consider a 'free mixing' between the salt brought about by surface runoff, interflow and groundwater flow. Salt accumulation on the surface due to evaporation and its flushing by initial winter flow is also incorporated in the Stream zone Store. The salt balance model was calibrated sequentially following successful application of the water balance model. Initial salt stores were estimated from measured salt profile data. We incorporated two lumped parameters to represent the complex chemical processes like diffusion-dilution-dispersion and salt fluxes due to preferential flow. The model has performed very well in simulating stream salinity generation processes observed at Ernies and Lemon experimental catchments in south west of Western Australia. The simulated and observed stream salinity and salt loads compare very well throughout the study period with NSE of 0.7 and 0.4 for Ernies and Lemon catchment respectively. The model slightly over predicted annual stream salt load by 6.2% and 6.8%.

  9. Handbook of latent variable and related models

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Sik-Yum

    2011-01-01

    This Handbook covers latent variable models, which are a flexible class of models for modeling multivariate data to explore relationships among observed and latent variables.- Covers a wide class of important models- Models and statistical methods described provide tools for analyzing a wide spectrum of complicated data- Includes illustrative examples with real data sets from business, education, medicine, public health and sociology.- Demonstrates the use of a wide variety of statistical, computational, and mathematical techniques.

  10. Damages detection in cylindrical metallic specimens by means of statistical baseline models and updated daily temperature profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villamizar-Mejia, Rodolfo; Mujica-Delgado, Luis-Eduardo; Ruiz-Ordóñez, Magda-Liliana; Camacho-Navarro, Jhonatan; Moreno-Beltrán, Gustavo

    2017-05-01

    In previous works, damage detection of metallic specimens exposed to temperature changes has been achieved by using a statistical baseline model based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA), piezodiagnostics principle and taking into account temperature effect by augmenting the baseline model or by using several baseline models according to the current temperature. In this paper a new approach is presented, where damage detection is based in a new index that combine Q and T2 statistical indices with current temperature measurements. Experimental tests were achieved in a carbon-steel pipe of 1m length and 1.5 inches diameter, instrumented with piezodevices acting as actuators or sensors. A PCA baseline model was obtained to a temperature of 21º and then T2 and Q statistical indices were obtained for a 24h temperature profile. Also, mass adding at different points of pipe between sensor and actuator was used as damage. By using the combined index the temperature contribution can be separated and a better differentiation of damages respect to undamaged cases can be graphically obtained.

  11. Calibration of a parsimonious distributed ecohydrological daily model in a data-scarce basin by exclusively using the spatio-temporal variation of NDVI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Pérez, Guiomar; Koch, Julian; Manfreda, Salvatore; Caylor, Kelly; Francés, Félix

    2017-12-01

    Ecohydrological modeling studies in developing countries, such as sub-Saharan Africa, often face the problem of extensive parametrical requirements and limited available data. Satellite remote sensing data may be able to fill this gap, but require novel methodologies to exploit their spatio-temporal information that could potentially be incorporated into model calibration and validation frameworks. The present study tackles this problem by suggesting an automatic calibration procedure, based on the empirical orthogonal function, for distributed ecohydrological daily models. The procedure is tested with the support of remote sensing data in a data-scarce environment - the upper Ewaso Ngiro river basin in Kenya. In the present application, the TETIS-VEG model is calibrated using only NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data derived from MODIS. The results demonstrate that (1) satellite data of vegetation dynamics can be used to calibrate and validate ecohydrological models in water-controlled and data-scarce regions, (2) the model calibrated using only satellite data is able to reproduce both the spatio-temporal vegetation dynamics and the observed discharge at the outlet and (3) the proposed automatic calibration methodology works satisfactorily and it allows for a straightforward incorporation of spatio-temporal data into the calibration and validation framework of a model.

  12. Systematic investigation of gridding-related scaling effects on annual statistics of daily temperature and precipitation maxima: A case study for south-east Australia

    OpenAIRE

    Francia B. Avila; Siyan Dong; Kaah P. Menang; Jan Rajczak; Madeleine Renom; Markus G. Donat; Lisa V. Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Using daily station observations over the period 1951–2013 in a region of south-east Australia, we systematically compare how the horizontal resolution, interpolation method and order of operation in generating gridded data sets affect estimates of annual extreme indices of temperature and precipitation maxima (hottest and wettest days). Three interpolation methods (natural neighbors, cubic spline and angular distance weighting) are used to calculate grids at five different horizontal gridded...

  13. A Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX Neural Network Model for the Prediction of the Daily Direct Solar Radiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zina Boussaada

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The solar photovoltaic (PV energy has an important place among the renewable energy sources. Therefore, several researchers have been interested by its modelling and its prediction, in order to improve the management of the electrical systems which include PV arrays. Among the existing techniques, artificial neural networks have proved their performance in the prediction of the solar radiation. However, the existing neural network models don’t satisfy the requirements of certain specific situations such as the one analyzed in this paper. The aim of this research work is to supply, with electricity, a race sailboat using exclusively renewable sources. The developed solution predicts the direct solar radiation on a horizontal surface. For that, a Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX neural network is used. All the specific conditions of the sailboat operation are taken into account. The results show that the best prediction performance is obtained when the training phase of the neural network is performed periodically.

  14. Daily temperature changes and variability in ENSEMBLES regional models predictions: Evaluation and intercomparison for the Ebro Valley (NE Iberia)

    KAUST Repository

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.

    2014-12-18

    We employ a suite of regional climate models (RCMs) to assess future changes in summer (JJA) maximum temperature (Tmax) over the Ebro basin, the largest hydrological division in the Iberian Peninsula. Under the A1B emission scenario, future changes in both mean values and their corresponding time varying percentiles were examined by comparing the control period (1971-2000) with two future time slices: 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Here, the rationale is to assess how lower/upper tails of temperature distributions will change in the future and whether these changes will be consistent with those of the mean. The model validation results demonstrate significant differences among the models in terms of their capability to representing the statistical characteristics (e.g., mean, skewness and asymmetry) of the observed climate. The results also indicate that the current substantial warming observed in the Ebro basin is expected to continue during the 21st century, with more intense warming occurring at higher altitudes and in areas with greater distance from coastlines. All models suggest that the region will experience significant positive changes in both the cold and warm tails of temperature distributions. However, the results emphasize that future changes in the lower and upper tails of the summer Tmax distribution may not follow the same warming rate as the mean condition. In particular, the projected changes in the warm tail of the summer Tmax are shown to be significantly larger than changes in both mean values and the cold tail, especially at the end of the 21st century. The finding suggests that much of the changes in the summer Tmax percentiles will be driven by a shift in the entire distribution of temperature rather than only changes in the central tendency. Better understanding of the possible implications of future climate systems provides information useful for vulnerability assessments and the development of local adaptation strategies for multi

  15. Accelerometer measured daily physical activity and sedentary pursuits--comparison between two models of the Actigraph and the importance of data reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanha, Tina; Tornberg, Åsa; Dencker, Magnus; Wollmer, Per

    2013-10-31

    Very few validation studies have been performed between different generations of the commonly used Actigraph accelerometers. We compared daily physical activity data generated from the old generation Actigraph model 7164 with the new generation Actigraph GT1M accelerometer in 15 young females for eight consecutive days. We also investigated if different wear time thresholds had any impact on the findings. Minutes per day of moderate and vigorous physical activity (MVPA), vigorous physical activity (VPA) and very vigorous physical activity (VVPA) were calculated. Moreover, minutes of sedentary pursuits per day were calculated. There were significant (P physical activity. Median minutes of sedentary pursuits per day are highly dependent on which wear time threshold that is used, and not by accelerometer model.

  16. Daily Water Requirements when Wearing Body Armor

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Montain, Scott

    2000-01-01

    .... This report presents the results of model simulations predicting the individual daily water requirements under a broad range of energy expenditures and weather conditions when wearing battle dress...

  17. Pharmacological doses of daily ascorbate protect tumours from radiation damage after a single dose of radiation in an intracranial mouse glioma model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carole eGrasso

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Pharmacological ascorbate is currently used as an anti-cancer treatment, potentially in combination with radiation therapy, by integrative medicine practitioners. In the acidic, metal-rich tumour environment, ascorbate acts as a pro-oxidant, with a mode of action similar to that of ionising radiation; both treatments kill cells predominantly by free radical-mediated DNA damage. The brain tumour, glioblastoma multiforme (GBM, is very resistant to radiation; radiosensitising GBM cells will improve survival of GBM patients. Here we demonstrate that a single fraction (6 Gy of radiation combined with a one hour exposure to ascorbate (5 mM sensitised murine glioma GL261cells to radiation in survival and colony-forming assays in vitro. In addition, we report the effect of a single fraction (4.5 Gy of whole brain radiation combined with daily intra-peritoneal injections of ascorbate (1 mg/kg in an intra-cranial GL261 glioma mouse model. Tumour-bearing C57BL/6 mice were divided into four groups: one group received a single dose of 4.5 Gy to the brain eight days after tumour implantation, a second group received daily intra-peritoneal injections of ascorbate (day 8-45 after implantation, a third group received both treatments and a fourth control group received no treatment. While radiation delayed tumour progression, intra-peritoneal ascorbate alone had no effect on tumour progression. Tumour progression was faster in tumour-bearing mice treated with radiation and daily ascorbate than those treated with radiation alone. Histological analysis showed less necrosis in tumours treated with both radiation and ascorbate, consistent with a radio-protective effect of ascorbate in vivo. Discrepancies between our in vitro and in vivo results may be explained by differences in the tumour micro-environment which determines whether ascorbate remains outside the cell, acting as a pro-oxidant or whether it enters the cells and acts as an anti-oxidant.

  18. Pharmacological doses of daily ascorbate protect tumors from radiation damage after a single dose of radiation in an intracranial mouse glioma model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grasso, Carole; Fabre, Marie-Sophie; Collis, Sarah V; Castro, M Leticia; Field, Cameron S; Schleich, Nanette; McConnell, Melanie J; Herst, Patries M

    2014-01-01

    Pharmacological ascorbate is currently used as an anti-cancer treatment, potentially in combination with radiation therapy, by integrative medicine practitioners. In the acidic, metal-rich tumor environment, ascorbate acts as a pro-oxidant, with a mode of action similar to that of ionizing radiation; both treatments kill cells predominantly by free radical-mediated DNA damage. The brain tumor, glioblastoma multiforme (GBM), is very resistant to radiation; radiosensitizing GBM cells will improve survival of GBM patients. Here, we demonstrate that a single fraction (6 Gy) of radiation combined with a 1 h exposure to ascorbate (5 mM) sensitized murine glioma GL261 cells to radiation in survival and colony-forming assays in vitro. In addition, we report the effect of a single fraction (4.5 Gy) of whole brain radiation combined with daily intraperitoneal injections of ascorbate (1 mg/kg) in an intracranial GL261 glioma mouse model. Tumor-bearing C57BL/6 mice were divided into four groups: one group received a single dose of 4.5 Gy to the brain 8 days after tumor implantation, a second group received daily intraperitoneal injections of ascorbate (day 8-45) after implantation, a third group received both treatments and a fourth control group received no treatment. While radiation delayed tumor progression, intraperitoneal ascorbate alone had no effect on tumor progression. Tumor progression was faster in tumor-bearing mice treated with radiation and daily ascorbate than in those treated with radiation alone. Histological analysis showed less necrosis in tumors treated with both radiation and ascorbate, consistent with a radio-protective effect of ascorbate in vivo. Discrepancies between our in vitro and in vivo results may be explained by differences in the tumor microenvironment, which determines whether ascorbate remains outside the cell, acting as a pro-oxidant, or whether it enters the cells and acts as an anti-oxidant.

  19. Daily propranolol prevents prolonged mobilization of hematopoietic progenitor cells in a rat model of lung contusion, hemorrhagic shock, and chronic stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bible, Letitia E; Pasupuleti, Latha V; Gore, Amy V; Sifri, Ziad C; Kannan, Kolenkode B; Mohr, Alicia M

    2015-09-01

    Propranolol has been shown previously to decrease the mobilization of hematopoietic progenitor cells (HPCs) after acute injury in rodent models; however, this acute injury model does not reflect the prolonged period of critical illness after severe trauma. Using our novel lung contusion/hemorrhagic shock/chronic restraint stress model, we hypothesize that daily administration of propranolol will decrease prolonged mobilization of HPCs without worsening lung healing. Male Sprague-Dawley rats underwent 6 days of restraint stress after undergoing lung contusion or lung contusion/hemorrhagic shock. Restraint stress consisted of a daily 2-hour period of restraint interrupted every 30 minutes by alarms and repositioning. Each day after the period of restraint stress, the rats received intraperitoneal propranolol (10 mg/kg). On day 7, peripheral blood was analyzed for granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) and stromal cell-derived factor 1 via enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and for mobilization of HPCs using c-kit and CD71 flow cytometry. The lungs were examined histologically to grade injury. Seven days after lung contusion and lung contusion/hemorrhagic shock, the addition of chronic restraint stress significantly increased the mobilization of HPC, which was associated with persistently increased levels of G-CSF and increased lung injury scores. The addition of propranolol to lung contusion/chronic restraint stress and lung contusion/hemorrhagic shock/chronic restraint stress models greatly decreased HPC mobilization and restored G-CSF levels to that of naïve animals without worsening lung injury scores. The daily administration of propranolol after both lung contusion and lung contusion/hemorrhagic shock subjected to chronic restraint stress decreased the prolonged mobilization of HPC from the bone marrow and decreased plasma G-CSF levels. Despite the decrease in mobilization of HPC, lung healing did not worsen. Alleviating chronic stress with propranolol

  20. Statistical comparison of models for estimating the monthly average daily diffuse radiation at a subtropical African site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bashahu, M.

    2003-01-01

    Nine correlations have been developed in this paper to estimate the monthly average diffuse radiation for Dakar, Senegal. A 16-year period data on the global (H) and diffuse (H d ) radiation, together with data on the bright sunshine hours (N), the fraction of the sky's (Ne/8), the water vapour pressure in the air (e) and the ambient temperature (T) have been used for that purpose. A model inter-comparison based on the MBE, RMSE and t statistical tests has shown that estimates in any of the obtained correlations are not significantly different from their measured counterparts, thus all the nine models are recommended for the aforesaid location. Three of them should be particularly selected for their simplicity, universal applicability and high accuracy. Those are simple linear correlations between K d and N/N d , Ne/8 or K t . Even presenting adequate performance, the remaining correlations are either simple but less accurate, or multiple or nonlinear regressions needing one or two input variables. (author)

  1. Statistical comparison of models for estimating the monthly average daily diffuse radiation at a subtropical African site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bashahu, M. [University of Burundi, Bujumbura (Burundi). Institute of Applied Pedagogy, Department of Physics and Technology

    2003-07-01

    Nine correlations have been developed in this paper to estimate the monthly average diffuse radiation for Dakar, Senegal. A 16-year period data on the global (H) and diffuse (H{sub d}) radiation, together with data on the bright sunshine hours (N), the fraction of the sky's (Ne/8), the water vapour pressure in the air (e) and the ambient temperature (T) have been used for that purpose. A model inter-comparison based on the MBE, RMSE and t statistical tests has shown that estimates in any of the obtained correlations are not significantly different from their measured counterparts, thus all the nine models are recommended for the aforesaid location. Three of them should be particularly selected for their simplicity, universal applicability and high accuracy. Those are simple linear correlations between K{sub d} and N/N{sub d}, Ne/8 or K{sub t}. Even presenting adequate performance, the remaining correlations are either simple but less accurate, or multiple or nonlinear regressions needing one or two input variables. (author)

  2. The Nature of Global Large-scale Sea Level Variability in Relation to Atmospheric Forcing: A Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukumori, I.; Raghunath, R.; Fu, L. L.

    1996-01-01

    The relation between large-scale sea level variability and ocean circulation is studied using a numerical model. A global primitive equaiton model of the ocean is forced by daily winds and climatological heat fluxes corresponding to the period from January 1992 to February 1996. The physical nature of the temporal variability from periods of days to a year, are examined based on spectral analyses of model results and comparisons with satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements.

  3. Relation between nonlinear models and gauge ambiguities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balachandran, A.P.; Ramachandran, R.; Rupertsberger, H.; Skagerstam, B.S.

    1980-01-01

    We show that the solutions of a class of nonlinear models also generate gauge ambiguities in the vacuum sector of Yang-Mills theories. Our results extend known connections between gauge ambiguities and certain nonlinear sigma-models, and clarify the underlying group theory. For many nonlinear models, we also give a simple, intrinsic parametrization of physical fields (which have values in a homogeneous space of a group). (orig.)

  4. Plan Recognition using Statistical Relational Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-25

    corresponding undirected model can be significantly more complex since there is no closed form solution for the maximum-likelihood set of parameters unlike in...algorithm did not scale to larger training sets, and the overall results are still not competitive with BALPs. 5In directed models, a closed form solution...opinions of ARO, DARPA, NSF or any other government agency. References Albrecht DW, Zukerman I, Nicholson AE. Bayesian models for keyhole plan

  5. Daily Supplementation of D-ribose Shows No Therapeutic Benefits in the MHC-I Transgenic Mouse Model of Inflammatory Myositis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coley, William; Rayavarapu, Sree; van der Meulen, Jack H.; Duba, Ayyappa S.; Nagaraju, Kanneboyina

    2013-01-01

    Background Current treatments for idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (collectively called myositis) focus on the suppression of an autoimmune inflammatory response within the skeletal muscle. However, it has been observed that there is a poor correlation between the successful suppression of muscle inflammation and an improvement in muscle function. Some evidence in the literature suggests that metabolic abnormalities in the skeletal muscle underlie the weakness that continues despite successful immunosuppression. We have previously shown that decreased expression of a purine nucleotide cycle enzyme, adenosine monophosphate deaminase (AMPD1), leads to muscle weakness in a mouse model of myositis and may provide a mechanistic basis for muscle weakness. One of the downstream metabolites of this pathway, D-ribose, has been reported to alleviate symptoms of myalgia in patients with a congenital loss of AMPD1. Therefore, we hypothesized that supplementing exogenous D-ribose would improve muscle function in the mouse model of myositis. We treated normal and myositis mice with daily doses of D-ribose (4 mg/kg) over a 6-week time period and assessed its effects using a battery of behavioral, functional, histological and molecular measures. Results Treatment with D-ribose was found to have no statistically significant effects on body weight, grip strength, open field behavioral activity, maximal and specific forces of EDL, soleus muscles, or histological features. Histological and gene expression analysis indicated that muscle tissues remained inflamed despite treatment. Gene expression analysis also suggested that low levels of the ribokinase enzyme in the skeletal muscle might prevent skeletal muscle tissue from effectively utilizing D-ribose. Conclusions Treatment with daily oral doses of D-ribose showed no significant effect on either disease progression or muscle function in the mouse model of myositis. PMID:23785461

  6. Daily supplementation of D-ribose shows no therapeutic benefits in the MHC-I transgenic mouse model of inflammatory myositis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William Coley

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Current treatments for idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (collectively called myositis focus on the suppression of an autoimmune inflammatory response within the skeletal muscle. However, it has been observed that there is a poor correlation between the successful suppression of muscle inflammation and an improvement in muscle function. Some evidence in the literature suggests that metabolic abnormalities in the skeletal muscle underlie the weakness that continues despite successful immunosuppression. We have previously shown that decreased expression of a purine nucleotide cycle enzyme, adenosine monophosphate deaminase (AMPD1, leads to muscle weakness in a mouse model of myositis and may provide a mechanistic basis for muscle weakness. One of the downstream metabolites of this pathway, D-ribose, has been reported to alleviate symptoms of myalgia in patients with a congenital loss of AMPD1. Therefore, we hypothesized that supplementing exogenous D-ribose would improve muscle function in the mouse model of myositis. We treated normal and myositis mice with daily doses of D-ribose (4 mg/kg over a 6-week time period and assessed its effects using a battery of behavioral, functional, histological and molecular measures. RESULTS: Treatment with D-ribose was found to have no statistically significant effects on body weight, grip strength, open field behavioral activity, maximal and specific forces of EDL, soleus muscles, or histological features. Histological and gene expression analysis indicated that muscle tissues remained inflamed despite treatment. Gene expression analysis also suggested that low levels of the ribokinase enzyme in the skeletal muscle might prevent skeletal muscle tissue from effectively utilizing D-ribose. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with daily oral doses of D-ribose showed no significant effect on either disease progression or muscle function in the mouse model of myositis.

  7. Evaluation of daily maximum and minimum 2-m temperatures as simulated with the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM over Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Krähenmann

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The representation of the diurnal 2-m temperature cycle is challenging because of the many processes involved, particularly land-atmosphere interactions. This study examines the ability of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (version 4.8 to capture the statistics of daily maximum and minimum 2-m temperatures (Tmin/Tmax over Africa. The simulations are carried out at two different horizontal grid-spacings (0.22° and 0.44°, and are driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses as near-perfect lateral boundary conditions. As evaluation reference, a high-resolution gridded dataset of daily maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmin/Tmax for Africa (covering the period 2008–2010 is created using the regression-kriging-regression-kriging (RKRK algorithm. RKRK applies, among other predictors, the remotely sensed predictors land surface temperature and cloud cover to compensate for the missing information about the temperature pattern due to the low station density over Africa. This dataset allows the evaluation of temperature characteristics like the frequencies of Tmin/Tmax, the diurnal temperature range, and the 90th percentile of Tmax. Although the large-scale patterns of temperature are reproduced well, COSMO-CLM shows significant under- and overestimation of temperature at regional scales. The hemispheric summers are generally too warm and the day-to-day temperature variability is overestimated over northern and southern extra-tropical Africa. The average diurnal temperature range is underestimated by about 2°C across arid areas, yet overestimated by around 2°C over the African tropics. An evaluation based on frequency distributions shows good model performance for simulated Tmin (the simulated frequency distributions capture more than 80% of the observed ones, but less well performance for Tmax (capture below 70%. Further, over wide parts of Africa a too large fraction of daily Tmax values exceeds the observed 90th percentile of Tmax, particularly

  8. Evaluation of daily maximum and minimum 2-m temperatures as simulated with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kraehenmann, Stefan; Kothe, Steffen; Ahrens, Bodo [Frankfurt Univ. (Germany). Inst. for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences; Panitz, Hans-Juergen [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany)

    2013-10-15

    The representation of the diurnal 2-m temperature cycle is challenging because of the many processes involved, particularly land-atmosphere interactions. This study examines the ability of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (version 4.8) to capture the statistics of daily maximum and minimum 2-m temperatures (Tmin/Tmax) over Africa. The simulations are carried out at two different horizontal grid-spacings (0.22 and 0.44 ), and are driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses as near-perfect lateral boundary conditions. As evaluation reference, a high-resolution gridded dataset of daily maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmin/Tmax) for Africa (covering the period 2008-2010) is created using the regression-kriging-regression-kriging (RKRK) algorithm. RKRK applies, among other predictors, the remotely sensed predictors land surface temperature and cloud cover to compensate for the missing information about the temperature pattern due to the low station density over Africa. This dataset allows the evaluation of temperature characteristics like the frequencies of Tmin/Tmax, the diurnal temperature range, and the 90{sup th} percentile of Tmax. Although the large-scale patterns of temperature are reproduced well, COSMO-CLM shows significant under- and overestimation of temperature at regional scales. The hemispheric summers are generally too warm and the day-to-day temperature variability is overestimated over northern and southern extra-tropical Africa. The average diurnal temperature range is underestimated by about 2 C across arid areas, yet overestimated by around 2 C over the African tropics. An evaluation based on frequency distributions shows good model performance for simulated Tmin (the simulated frequency distributions capture more than 80% of the observed ones), but less well performance for Tmax (capture below 70%). Further, over wide parts of Africa a too large fraction of daily Tmax values exceeds the observed 90{sup th} percentile of Tmax, particularly across

  9. Daily ingestion of the probiotic Lactobacillus paracasei ST11 decreases Vaccinia virus dissemination and lethality in a mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dos Santos Pereira Andrade, A C; Lima, M Teixeira; Oliveira, G Pereira; Calixto, R Silva; de Sales E Souza, É Lorenna; da Glória de Souza, D; de Almeida Leite, C M; Ferreira, J M Siqueira; Kroon, E G; de Oliveira, D Bretas; Dos Santos Martins, F; Abrahão, J S

    2017-02-07

    Vaccinia virus (VACV) is an important pathogen. Although studies have shown relationships between probiotics and viruses, the effect of probiotics on VACV infection is unknown. Therefore, this work aims to investigate the probiotics effects on VACV infection. Mice were divided into four groups, two non-infected groups, one receiving the probiotic, the other one not receiving it, and two groups infected intranasally with VACV Western Reserve (VACV-WR) receiving or not receiving the probiotic. Viral titres in organs and cytokine production in the lungs were analysed. Lung samples were also subjected to histological analysis. The intake of probiotic results in reduction in viral spread with a significant decrease of VACV titer on lung, liver and brain of treated group. In addition,treatment with the probiotic results in attenuated mice lung inflammation showing fewer lesions on histological findings and decreased lethality in mice infected with VACV. The ingestion of Lactobacillus paracasei ST11 (LPST11) after VACV infection resulted in 2/9 animal lethality compared with 4/9 in the VACV group. This is the first study on probiotics and VACV interactions, providing not only information about this interaction, but also proposing a model for future studies involving probiotics and other poxvirus.

  10. Relationships Among Nightly Sleep Quality, Daily Stress, and Daily Affect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaxton, Jessica M; Bergeman, Cindy S; Whitehead, Brenda R; Braun, Marcia E; Payne, Jessic D

    2017-05-01

    We explored the prospective, microlevel relationship between nightly sleep quality (SQ) and the subsequent day's stress on positive (PA) and negative affect (NA) as well as the moderating relationships between nightly SQ, subsequent stress, and subsequent PA on NA. We investigated whether age moderated these relationships. We collected 56 days of sleep, stress, and affect data using daily diary questionnaires (N = 552). We used multilevel modeling to assess relationships at the between- and within-person levels. Daily increases in SQ and decreases in stress interacted to predict higher daily PA and lower daily NA. Better SQ in older adults enhanced the benefits of PA on the stress-NA relationship more during times of low stress, whereas better sleep in younger adults enhanced the benefits of PA more during times of high stress. Between-person effects were stronger predictors of well-being outcomes than within-person variability. The combination of good SQ and higher PA buffered the impact of stress on NA. The moderating impact of age suggests that sleep and stress play different roles across adulthood. Targeting intervention and prevention strategies to improve SQ and enhance PA could disrupt the detrimental relationship between daily stress and NA. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Does oral health matter in people's daily life? Oral health-related quality of life in adults 35-47 years of age in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahl, K E; Wang, N J; Ohrn, K

    2012-02-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the effect of oral health on aspects of daily life measured by the Dental Impact Profile (DIP) in 35- to 47-year-old individuals in Norway, and to study associations between reported effects and demographic variables, subjectively assessed oral health, general health, oral health behaviour and clinical oral health. A stratified randomized sample of 249 individuals received a questionnaire regarding demographic questions, dental visits, oral hygiene behaviour, self-rated oral health and general health and satisfaction with oral health. The DIP measured the effects of oral health on daily life. Teeth present and caries experience were registered by clinical examination. Bi- and multivariate analyses and factor analysis were used. Items most frequently reported to be positively or negatively influenced by oral health were chewing and biting, eating, smiling and laughing, feeling comfortable and appearance. Only 1% reported no effects of oral health. Individuals with fewer than two decayed teeth, individuals who rated their oral health as good or practised good oral health habits reported more positive effects than others on oral quality of life (P ≤ 0.05). When the variables were included in multivariate analysis, none was statistically significant. The subscales of the DIP were somewhat different from the originally suggested subscales. This study showed that most adults reported oral health to be important for masticatory functions and confirmed that oral health also had impacts on other aspects of life. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  12. Modeling and simulation of sexual activity daily diary data of patients with female sexual arousal disorder treated with sildenafil citrate (Viagra).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claret, Laurent; Cox, Eugene H; McFadyen, Lynn; Pidgen, Alwyn; Johnson, Patrick J; Haughie, Scott; Boolell, Mitra; Bruno, Rene

    2006-08-01

    To develop a model to explore the dose-response of sildenafil citrate in patients with female sexual arousal disorder (FSAD) based on telephone sexual activity daily diary (TSADD) data obtained in double-blind, placebo controlled clinical studies. Data were available on 614 patients with FSAD. A parametric model (Weibull distribution) was developed to describe the probability density function of the time between sexual events. Orgasm satisfaction scores and overall sexual satisfaction scores were simultaneously modeled as ordered categorical variables. Simulations were performed to evaluate the expected clinical response in patients with FSAD. The expected time between sexual events was approximately 3.5 days. Satisfaction scores increased with time to achieve a plateau after 3 to 4 weeks on treatment. The expected probability of satisfying orgasm (score of 3 and higher) ranged from 34.7% for placebo to 41.6% for 100 mg sildenafil citrate. Treatment effect (difference from placebo) was 6.9% for 100 mg sildenafil citrate, ranging from 0.6 to 24.7% for testosterone levels of 0.1 to 4.0 pg/ml. The treatment effect in postmenopausal women was larger than in premenopausal women. A modeling and simulation framework to support drug development in FSAD was developed. Sildenafil citrate demonstrated a dose-dependent effect in patients with FSAD.

  13. A nonlinear support vector machine model with hard penalty function based on glowworm swarm optimization for forecasting daily global solar radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, He; Dong, Yao

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Eclat data mining algorithm is used to determine the possible predictors. • Support vector machine is converted into a ridge regularization problem. • Hard penalty selects the number of radial basis functions to simply the structure. • Glowworm swarm optimization is utilized to determine the optimal parameters. - Abstract: For a portion of the power which is generated by grid connected photovoltaic installations, an effective solar irradiation forecasting approach must be crucial to ensure the quality and the security of power grid. This paper develops and investigates a novel model to forecast 30 daily global solar radiation at four given locations of the United States. Eclat data mining algorithm is first presented to discover association rules between solar radiation and several meteorological factors laying a theoretical foundation for these correlative factors as input vectors. An effective and innovative intelligent optimization model based on nonlinear support vector machine and hard penalty function is proposed to forecast solar radiation by converting support vector machine into a regularization problem with ridge penalty, adding a hard penalty function to select the number of radial basis functions, and using glowworm swarm optimization algorithm to determine the optimal parameters of the model. In order to illustrate our validity of the proposed method, the datasets at four sites of the United States are split to into training data and test data, separately. The experiment results reveal that the proposed model delivers the best forecasting performances comparing with other competitors.

  14. Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Predicting and Mapping Daily Pan Evaporation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arunkumar, R.; Jothiprakash, V.; Sharma, Kirty

    2017-09-01

    In this study, Artificial Intelligence techniques such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Model Tree (MT) and Genetic Programming (GP) are used to develop daily pan evaporation time-series (TS) prediction and cause-effect (CE) mapping models. Ten years of observed daily meteorological data such as maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours, dew point temperature and pan evaporation are used for developing the models. For each technique, several models are developed by changing the number of inputs and other model parameters. The performance of each model is evaluated using standard statistical measures such as Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error, Normalized Mean Square Error and correlation coefficient (R). The results showed that daily TS-GP (4) model predicted better with a correlation coefficient of 0.959 than other TS models. Among various CE models, CE-ANN (6-10-1) resulted better than MT and GP models with a correlation coefficient of 0.881. Because of the complex non-linear inter-relationship among various meteorological variables, CE mapping models could not achieve the performance of TS models. From this study, it was found that GP performs better for recognizing single pattern (time series modelling), whereas ANN is better for modelling multiple patterns (cause-effect modelling) in the data.

  15. Relations Between Self-Reported Daily-Life Fatigue, Hearing Status, and Pupil Dilation During a Speech Perception in Noise Task

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Yang; Naylor, Graham; Kramer, Sophia E

    2017-01-01

    during the speech processing, and we used peak pupil dilation (PPD) as the main outcome measure of the pupillometry. No correlation was found between subjectively measured fatigue and hearing acuity, nor was a group difference found between the normally hearing and the hearing-impaired participants...... on the fatigue scores. A significant negative correlation was found between self-reported fatigue and PPD. A similar correlation was also found between Speech Intelligibility Index required for 50% correct and PPD. Multiple regression analysis showed that factors representing "hearing acuity" and "self......-reported fatigue" had equal and independent associations with the PPD during the speech in noise test. Less fatigue and better hearing acuity were associated with a larger pupil dilation. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the relationship between a subjective measure of daily...

  16. A field studies and modeling approach to develop organochlorine pesticide and PCB total maximum daily load calculations: Case study for Echo Park Lake, Los Angeles, CA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasquez, V.R., E-mail: vrvasquez@ucla.edu [Environmental Science and Engineering Program, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496 (United States); Curren, J., E-mail: janecurren@yahoo.com [Environmental Science and Engineering Program, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496 (United States); Lau, S.-L., E-mail: simlin@ucla.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496 (United States); Stenstrom, M.K., E-mail: stenstro@seas.ucla.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496 (United States); Suffet, I.H., E-mail: msuffet@ucla.edu [Environmental Science and Engineering Program, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496 (United States)

    2011-09-01

    Echo Park Lake is a small lake in Los Angeles, CA listed on the USA Clean Water Act Section 303(d) list of impaired water bodies for elevated levels of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in fish tissue. A lake water and sediment sampling program was completed to support the development of total maximum daily loads (TMDL) to address the lake impairment. The field data indicated quantifiable levels of OCPs and PCBs in the sediments, but lake water data were all below detection levels. The field sediment data obtained may explain the contaminant levels in fish tissue using appropriate sediment-water partitioning coefficients and bioaccumulation factors. A partition-equilibrium fugacity model of the whole lake system was used to interpret the field data and indicated that half of the total mass of the pollutants in the system are in the sediments and the other half is in soil; therefore, soil erosion could be a significant pollutant transport mode into the lake. Modeling also indicated that developing and quantifying the TMDL depends significantly on the analytical detection level for the pollutants in field samples and on the choice of octanol-water partitioning coefficient and bioaccumulation factors for the model. - Research highlights: {yields} Fugacity model using new OCP and PCB field data supports lake TMDL calculations. {yields} OCP and PCB levels in lake sediment were found above levels for impairment. {yields} Relationship between sediment data and available fish tissue data evaluated. {yields} Model provides approximation of contaminant sources and sinks for a lake system. {yields} Model results were sensitive to analytical detection and quantification levels.

  17. Estimating daily time series of streamflow using hydrological model calibrated based on satellite observations of river water surface width: Toward real world applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wenchao; Ishidaira, Hiroshi; Bastola, Satish; Yu, Jingshan

    2015-05-01

    Lacking observation data for calibration constrains applications of hydrological models to estimate daily time series of streamflow. Recent improvements in remote sensing enable detection of river water-surface width from satellite observations, making possible the tracking of streamflow from space. In this study, a method calibrating hydrological models using river width derived from remote sensing is demonstrated through application to the ungauged Irrawaddy Basin in Myanmar. Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is selected as a tool for automatic calibration and uncertainty analysis. Of 50,000 randomly generated parameter sets, 997 are identified as behavioral, based on comparing model simulation with satellite observations. The uncertainty band of streamflow simulation can span most of 10-year average monthly observed streamflow for moderate and high flow conditions. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency is 95.7% for the simulated streamflow at the 50% quantile. These results indicate that application to the target basin is generally successful. Beyond evaluating the method in a basin lacking streamflow data, difficulties and possible solutions for applications in the real world are addressed to promote future use of the proposed method in more ungauged basins. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Efficient Matrix Models for Relational Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-10-01

    base learners and h1:r is the ensemble learner. For example, consider the case where h1, . . . , hr are linear discriminants. The weighted vote of...a multilinear form naturally leads one to consider tensor factorization: e.g., UAV T is a special case of Tucker decomposition [129] on a 2D- tensor , a...matrix. Our five modeling choices can also be used to differentiate tensor factorizations, but the choices may be subtler for tensors than for

  19. Reduced Order Modeling in General Relativity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiglio, Manuel

    2014-03-01

    Reduced Order Modeling is an emerging yet fast developing filed in gravitational wave physics. The main goals are to enable fast modeling and parameter estimation of any detected signal, along with rapid matched filtering detecting. I will focus on the first two. Some accomplishments include being able to replace, with essentially no lost of physical accuracy, the original models with surrogate ones (which are not effective ones, that is, they do not simplify the physics but go on a very different track, exploiting the particulars of the waveform family under consideration and state of the art dimensional reduction techniques) which are very fast to evaluate. For example, for EOB models they are at least around 3 orders of magnitude faster than solving the original equations, with physically equivalent results. For numerical simulations the speedup is at least 11 orders of magnitude. For parameter estimation our current numbers are about bringing ~100 days for a single SPA inspiral binary neutron star Bayesian parameter estimation analysis to under a day. More recently, it has been shown that the full precessing problem for, say, 200 cycles, can be represented, through some new ideas, by a remarkably compact set of carefully chosen reduced basis waveforms (~10-100, depending on the accuracy requirements). I will highlight what I personally believe are the challenges to face next in this subarea of GW physics and where efforts should be directed. This talk will summarize work in collaboration with: Harbir Antil (GMU), Jonathan Blackman (Caltech), Priscila Canizares (IoA, Cambridge, UK), Sarah Caudill (UWM), Jonathan Gair (IoA. Cambridge. UK), Scott Field (UMD), Chad R. Galley (Caltech), Frank Herrmann (Germany), Han Hestahven (EPFL, Switzerland), Jason Kaye (Brown, Stanford & Courant). Evan Ochsner (UWM), Ricardo Nochetto (UMD), Vivien Raymond (LIGO, Caltech), Rory Smith (LIGO, Caltech) Bela Ssilagyi (Caltech) and MT (UMD & Caltech).

  20. A model of milk production in lactating dairy cows in relation to energy and nitrogen dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, I R; France, J; Cullen, B R

    2016-02-01

    A generic daily time-step model of a dairy cow, designed to be included in whole-system pasture simulation models, is described that includes growth, milk production, and lactation in relation to energy and nitrogen dynamics. It is a development of a previously described animal growth and metabolism model that describes animal body composition in terms of protein, water, and fat, and energy dynamics in relation to growth requirements, resynthesis of degraded protein, and animal activity. This is further developed to include lactation and fetal growth. Intake is calculated in relation to stage of lactation, pasture availability, supplementary feed, and feed quality. Energy costs associated with urine N excretion and methane fermentation are accounted for. Milk production and fetal growth are then calculated in relation to the overall energy and nitrogen dynamics. The general behavior of the model is consistent with expected characteristics. Simulations using the model as part of a whole-system pasture simulation model (DairyMod) are compared with experimental data where good agreement between pasture, concentrate and forage intake, as well as milk production over 3 consecutive lactation cycles, is observed. The model is shown to be well suited for inclusion in large-scale system simulation models. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Relative Motion Modeling and Autonomous Navigation Accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-15

    74-79. [39] T. Carter and M. Humi, “Clohessy-Wiltshire Equations Modified to Include Quadratic Drag,” Journal of Guidance, Control and Dynamics...the effect of the absolute and differential effects of the equatorial bulge term, J2, in the linearized equations for the relative motion of...perturbation equations up to third-order used for separating the secular and periodic effects can be written as where , , , and are the Kamiltonians of

  2. Edificio Daily Mirror

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Williams, Owen

    1963-07-01

    Full Text Available The building has 18 levels. The Press occupies the 4 basement floors. The ground floor is taken up with the entrance hall, and an indoor carriage way. A snack bar and the telephone operators are situated on the second floor. The production department and the medical services are located on the third storey, whilst the fourth is occupied by the offices and library. The fifth floor is the beginning of the higher section of the building. This floor and up to including the 11th floor are devoted to office space, except for the 10th storey, which contains the office apartments of the directors and the Council Chamber. Equipment related to various services of the building is housed on the 12th storey. Finally, this tall building constitutes a fine landmark in the London skyline. The Daily Mirror building is outstanding for the appropriate nature, the completeness and the quality of its installations, which thus provide the most widely read paper in the world with outstandingly efficient offices.Este edificio consta de 18 plantas. El cuerpo de Prensa se aloja en los cuatro sótanos; los vestíbulos de entrada y una calzada interior para vehículos se hallan en la planta baja; la primera alberga un snack-bar y centralita telefónica; la segunda, el departamento de producción y centro de asistencia médica, y la tercera, las oficinas y biblioteca principales. La cuarta planta señala el comienzo del bloque alto; esta planta, junto con las quinta, sexta, séptima, octava y décima, están dedicadas a oficinas. La novena contiene las oficinas-apartamentos de los directores y salas de Consejo, y la undécima, la maquinaria para las diversas instalaciones del edificio. La elevada torre constituye un grandioso hito de referencia en esta zona de Londres. El «Daily Mirror» se distingue por el acierto, número y perfección de sus instalaciones, que proporcionan, al periódico de mayor actualidad mundial, las más adecuadas y amplias oficinas modernas.

  3. Intraindividual change and variability in daily stress processes: Findings from two measurement-burst diary studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sliwinski, Martin J.; Almeida, David M.; Smyth, Joshua; Stawski, Robert S.

    2010-01-01

    There is little longitudinal information on aging-related changes in emotional responses to negative events. The present manuscript examined intraindividual change and variability in the within-person coupling of daily stress and negative affect (NA) using data from two-measurement burst daily diary studies. Three main findings emerged. First, average reactivity to daily stress increased longitudinally, and this increase was evident across most the adult lifespan. Second, individual differences in emotional reactivity to daily stress exhibited long-term temporal stability, but this stability was greatest in midlife and decreased in old age. And third, reactivity to daily stress varied reliably within-persons (across-time), with individual exhibiting higher levels of reactivity during times when reporting high levels of global subject stress in previous month. Taken together, the present results emphasize the importance of modeling dynamic psychosocial and aging processes that operate across different time scales for understanding age-related changes in daily stress processes. PMID:20025399

  4. Performance of STICS model to predict rainfed corn evapotranspiration and biomass evaluated for 6 years between 1995 and 2006 using daily aggregated eddy covariance fluxes and ancillary measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattey, Elizabeth; Jégo, Guillaume; Bourgeois, Gaétan

    2010-05-01

    Verifying the performance of process-based crop growth models to predict evapotranspiration and crop biomass is a key component of the adaptation of agricultural crop production to climate variations. STICS, developed by INRA, was part of the models selected by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada to be implemented for environmental assessment studies on climate variations, because of its built-in ability to assimilate biophysical descriptors such as LAI derived from satellite imagery and its open architecture. The model prediction of shoot biomass was calibrated using destructive biomass measurements over one season, by adjusting six cultivar parameters and three generic plant parameters to define two grain corn cultivars adapted to the 1000-km long Mixedwood Plains ecozone. Its performance was then evaluated using a database of 40 years-sites of corn destructive biomass and yield. In this study we evaluate the temporal response of STICS evapotranspiration and biomass accumulation predictions against estimates using daily aggregated eddy covariance fluxes. The flux tower was located in an experimental farm south of Ottawa and measurements carried out over corn fields in 1995, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2006. Daytime and nighttime fluxes were QC/QA and gap-filled separately. Soil respiration was partitioned to calculate the corn net daily CO2 uptake, which was converted into dry biomass. Out of the six growing seasons, three (1995, 1998, 2002) had water stress periods during corn grain filling. Year 2000 was cool and wet, while 1996 had heat and rainfall distributed evenly over the season and 2006 had a wet spring. STICS can predict evapotranspiration using either crop coefficients, when wind speed and air moisture are not available, or resistance. The first approach provided higher prediction for all the years than the resistance approach and the flux measurements. The dynamic of evapotranspiration prediction of STICS was very good for the growing seasons without

  5. Lightship Daily Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observations taken on board lightships along the United States coasts from 1936 - 1983. Generally 4-6 observations daily. Also includes deck logs, which give...

  6. DailyMed

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — DailyMed provides high quality information about marketed drugs. This information includes FDA labels (package inserts). This Web site provides health information...

  7. Daily Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Several different government offices have published the Daily weather maps over its history. The publication has also gone by different names over time. The U.S....

  8. Relating masses and mixing angles. A model-independent model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hollik, Wolfgang Gregor [DESY, Hamburg (Germany); Saldana-Salazar, Ulises Jesus [CINVESTAV (Mexico)

    2016-07-01

    In general, mixing angles and fermion masses are seen to be independent parameters of the Standard Model. However, exploiting the observed hierarchy in the masses, it is viable to construct the mixing matrices for both quarks and leptons in terms of the corresponding mass ratios only. A closer view on the symmetry properties leads to potential realizations of that approach in extensions of the Standard Model. We discuss the application in the context of flavored multi-Higgs models.

  9. Modeling patterns in count data using loglinear and related models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    1995-12-01

    This report explains the use of loglinear and logit models, for analyzing Poisson and binomial counts in the presence of explanatory variables. The explanatory variables may be unordered categorical variables or numerical variables, or both. The report shows how to construct models to fit data, and how to test whether a model is too simple or too complex. The appropriateness of the methods with small data sets is discussed. Several example analyses, using the SAS computer package, illustrate the methods

  10. Star-Triangle Relation of the Chiral Potts Model Revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Horibe, M.; Shigemoto, K.

    2001-01-01

    We give the simple proof of the star-triangle relation of the chiral Potts model. We also give the constructive way to understand the star-triangle relation of the chiral Potts model, which may give the hint to give the new integrable models.

  11. Modeling daily gas exchange of a Douglas-fir forest : comparison of three stomatal conductance models with and without a soil water stress function

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijk, van M.T.; Dekker, S.C.; Bouten, W.; Bosveld, F.C.; Kohsiek, W.; Kramer, K.; Mohren, G.M.J.

    2000-01-01

    Modeling stomatal conductance is a key element in predicting tree growth and water use at the stand scale. We compared three commonly used models of stomatal conductance, the Jarvis-Loustau, Ball-Berry and Leuning models, for their suitability for incorporating soil water stress into their

  12. Building spatio-temporal database model based on ontological approach using relational database environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmood, N.; Burney, S.M.A.

    2017-01-01

    Everything in this world is encapsulated by space and time fence. Our daily life activities are utterly linked and related with other objects in vicinity. Therefore, a strong relationship exist with our current location, time (including past, present and future) and event through with we are moving as an object also affect our activities in life. Ontology development and its integration with database are vital for the true understanding of the complex systems involving both spatial and temporal dimensions. In this paper we propose a conceptual framework for building spatio-temporal database model based on ontological approach. We have used relational data model for modelling spatio-temporal data content and present our methodology with spatio-temporal ontological accepts and its transformation into spatio-temporal database model. We illustrate the implementation of our conceptual model through a case study related to cultivated land parcel used for agriculture to exhibit the spatio-temporal behaviour of agricultural land and related entities. Moreover, it provides a generic approach for designing spatiotemporal databases based on ontology. The proposed model is capable to understand the ontological and somehow epistemological commitments and to build spatio-temporal ontology and transform it into a spatio-temporal data model. Finally, we highlight the existing and future research challenges. (author)

  13. The effects of conscientiousness on the appraisals of daily stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gartland, Nicola; O'Connor, Daryl B; Lawton, Rebecca

    2012-02-01

    Conscientiousness (C) is positively associated with health and longevity although the mechanisms underlying this relationship are not fully understood. Stress may play a role in explaining the C-longevity relationship. This study investigated whether C predicted the cognitive appraisals of daily stressors/hassles. Participants (N=102) completed measures of C and cognitive appraisal in relation to the most stressful hassle they had experienced in the last 7 days. Correlational analysis revealed that Total C, Order and Industriousness were positively correlated with primary appraisals, and Responsibility was positively correlated with secondary appraisals. The facets of C were then entered into hierarchical regression models, controlling for age and gender. This demonstrated that Order (β=0.27, paccounting for 15.8% of the variance. Responsibility significantly predicted secondary appraisals (β=0.44, paccounting for 16.3% of the variance. These findings indicate that higher Order and Industriousness are related to having a greater stake in daily stressors, whereas higher Responsibility is related to greater confidence in one's ability to deal with daily stressors. These results are the first demonstration that C is related to the appraisals of daily hassles and suggest that C may moderate the experience of stress in daily life. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Winter precipitation characteristics in western US related to atmospheric river landfalls: observations and model evaluations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J.; Guan, B.; Waliser, D. E.; Ferraro, R. D.; Case, J. L.; Iguchi, T.; Kemp, E.; Putman, W.; Wang, W.; Wu, D.; Tian, B.

    2018-01-01

    Winter precipitation (PR) characteristics in western United States (WUS) related to atmospheric river (AR) landfalls are examined using the observation-based PRISM data. The observed AR-related precipitation characteristics are in turn used to evaluate model precipitation data from the NASA MERRA2 reanalysis and from seven dynamical downscaling simulations driven by the MERRA2. Multiple metrics including mean bias, Taylor diagram, and two skill scores are used to measure model performance for three climatological sub-regions in WUS, Pacific Northwest (PNW), Pacific Southwest (PSW) and Great Basin (GB). All model data well represent the winter-mean PR with spatial pattern correlations of 0.8 or higher with PRISM for the three sub-regions. Higher spatial resolutions and/or the use of spectral nudging generally yield higher skill scores in simulating the geographical distribution of PR for the entire winter. The PRISM data shows that the AR-related fraction of winter PR and associated daily PR PDFs in each region vary strongly for landfall locations; AR landfalls in the northern WUS coast (NC) affect mostly PNW while those in the southern WUS coast (SC) affect both PSW and GB. NC (SC) landfalls increase the frequency of heavy PR in PNW (PSW and GB) but reduce it in PSW (PNW). All model data reasonably represent these observed variations in the AR-related winter PR fractions and the daily PR PDFs according to AR landfall locations. However, unlike for the entire winter period, no systematic effects of resolution and/or spectral nudging are identified in these AR-related PR characteristics. Dynamical downscaling in this study generally yield positive added values to the MERRA2 PR in the AR-related PR fraction for most sub-regions and landfall locations, most noticeably for PSW by NU-WRF. The downscaling also generate positive added value in p95 for PNW, but negative values for PSW and GB due to overestimation of heavy precipitation events.

  15. Daily and Compulsive Internet Use and Well-Being in Adolescence: A Diathesis-Stress Model Based on Big Five Personality Traits

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Aa, Niels; Overbeek, Geertjan; Engels, Rutger C. M. E.; Scholte, Ron H. J.; Meerkerk, Gert-Jan; Van den Eijnden, Regina J. J. M.

    2009-01-01

    This study examined the associations between adolescents' daily Internet use and low well-being (i.e., loneliness, low self-esteem, and depressive moods). We hypothesized that (a) linkages between high levels of daily Internet use and low well-being would be mediated by compulsive Internet use (CIU), and (b) that adolescents with low levels of…

  16. Daily and Compulsive Internet Use and Well-Being in Adolescence: A Diathesis-Stress Model Based on Big Five Personality Traits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aa, N. van der; Overbeek, G.J.; Engels, R.C.M.E.; Scholte, R.H.J.; Meerkerk, G.J.; Eijnden, R.J.J.M. van den

    2009-01-01

    This study examined the associations between adolescents' daily Internet use and low well-being (i.e., loneliness, low self-esteem, and depressive moods). We hypothesized that (a) linkages between high levels of daily Internet use and low well-being would be mediated by compulsive Internet use

  17. Families of Children with Chronic Illness and the Relational Family Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja Pate

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Families of children with chronic illness experience persistent stress. Facing the diagnosis and learning how to cope with it is a stressful experience not only for the child but also for the parents and for the whole family. The illness, with its unpredictability and treatment, disturbs their daily routine and threatens the whole family system. Parental involvement in the child’s disease management and their emotional support are crucial for effective coping and adaptation to the child’s chronic illness. The aim of this article is to present the importance of the parental role in these families through theoretical findings of the relational family model.

  18. The semiotics of control and modeling relations in complex systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joslyn, C

    2001-01-01

    We provide a conceptual analysis of ideas and principles from the systems theory discourse which underlie Pattee's semantic or semiotic closure, which is itself foundational for a school of theoretical biology derived from systems theory and cybernetics, and is now being related to biological semiotics and explicated in the relational biological school of Rashevsky and Rosen. Atomic control systems and models are described as the canonical forms of semiotic organization, sharing measurement relations, but differing topologically in that control systems are circularly and models linearly related to their environments. Computation in control systems is introduced, motivating hierarchical decomposition, hybrid modeling and control systems, and anticipatory or model-based control. The semiotic relations in complex control systems are described in terms of relational constraints, and rules and laws are distinguished as contingent and necessary functional entailments, respectively. Finally, selection as a meta-level of constraint is introduced as the necessary condition for semantic relations in control systems and models.

  19. Use cases and related business models for smart cities infrastructures

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Dlodlo, N

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available related business model is described. A business model describes the value proposition, market segment, and cost structure, position in the network of competitors, the competitive advantage and the infrastructure of a business entity. This research started...

  20. Prediction of daily spring hydrographs for future climatic scenarios based on an integrated numerical modelling approach: Application on a snow-governed semi- arid karst catchment area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doummar, J.; Kassem, A.; Gurdak, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    In the framework of a three-year USAID/NSF- funded PEER Science project, flow in a karst system in Lebanon (Assal Spring; discharge 0.2-2.5 m3/s yearly volume of 22-30 Mm3) dominated by snow and semi arid conditions was simulated using an integrated numerical model (Mike She 2016). The calibrated model (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.77) is based on high resolution input data (2014-2017) and detailed catchment characterization. The approach is to assess the influence of various model parameters on recharge signals in the different hydrological karst compartments (Atmosphere, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone) based on an integrated numerical model. These parameters include precipitation intensity and magnitude, temperature, snow-melt parameters, in addition to karst specific spatially distributed features such as fast infiltration points, soil properties and thickness, topographical slopes, Epikarst and thickness of unsaturated zone, and hydraulic conductivity among others. Moreover, the model is currently simulated forward using various scenarios for future climate (Global Climate Models GCM; daily downscaled temperature and precipitation time series for Lebanon 2020-2045) in order to depict the flow rates expected in the future and the effect of climate change on hydrographs recession coefficients, discharge maxima and minima, and total spring discharge volume . Additionally, a sensitivity analysis of individual or coupled major parameters allows quantifying their impact on recharge or indirectly on the vulnerability of the system (soil thickness, soil and rock hydraulic conductivity appear to be amongst the highly sensitive parameters). This study particularly unravels the normalized single effect of rain magnitude and intensity, snow, and temperature change on the flow rate (e.g., a change of temperature of 3° on the catchment yields a Residual Mean Square Error RMSE of 0.15 m3/s in the spring discharge and a 16% error in the total annual volume with

  1. Modelling the cost-effectiveness of pregabalin versus usual care in daily practice in the treatment of refractory generalised anxiety disorder in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Salas-Cansado, Marina; Álvarez, Enrique; Olivares, José M; Carrasco, Jose L; Ferro, M Belén; Rejas, Javier

    2013-06-01

    To model the cost-effectiveness (CEA) of the use of pregabalin versus usual care (UC) in outpatients with refractory generalised anxiety disorder (GAD) treated in daily practice in mental health settings in Spain. This CEA model used data extracted from a 6-month prospective non-interventional trial: the Amplification of Definition of ANxiety (ADAN) study, which was conducted to determine the cost-of-illness in GAD subjects. Refractory subjects were those who reported persistent symptoms of anxiety and showed suboptimal response in the Hamilton-anxiety scale (HAM-A ≥ 16) after a standard dose regimen of anxiolytics other than pregabalin, alone or in combination, over 6 months. The pregabalin arm was documented with data extracted from patients who received pregabalin in the study for the first time, added or replacing the existing therapy. In the UC arm, treatment might include one or more of the following: a serotonin selective reuptake inhibitor, a serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor, other anti-depressants, a benzodiazepine or an anti-epileptic drug other than pregabalin. The time horizon of the modelling was 6 months in the base-case scenario, and the National Health System perspective was chosen to calculate costs. Effectiveness was expressed as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, which were derived using the EQ-5D questionnaire, at baseline and end-of-trial visits. Results of the CEA model was expressed as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per QALY gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis using bootstrapping techniques was also carried out to obtain the cost-effectiveness plane and the corresponding acceptability curve. Data from a total of 429 subjects per arm (mean HAM-A score 25.7) meeting eligible criteria for inclusion in CEA modelling were extracted from the original trial. Compared with UC, pregabalin (average dose 218 mg/day) was associated with significantly higher QALY gain; 0.1209 ± 0.1030 versus 0.0994

  2. Personality, relationship conflict, and teamwork-related mental models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vîrgă, D.; Curseu, P.L.; Maricuţoiu, L.; Sava, S.A.; Macsinga, I.; Măgurean, S.

    2014-01-01

    This study seeks to explore whether neuroticism, agreeableness, and conscientiousness moderate the influence of relationship conflict experienced in groups on changes in group members' evaluative cognitions related to teamwork quality (teamwork-related mental models). Data from 216 students, nested

  3. Forecasting asthma-related hospital admissions in London using negative binomial models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D; Sarran, Christophe

    2013-05-01

    Health forecasting can improve health service provision and individual patient outcomes. Environmental factors are known to impact chronic respiratory conditions such as asthma, but little is known about the extent to which these factors can be used for forecasting. Using weather, air quality and hospital asthma admissions, in London (2005-2006), two related negative binomial models were developed and compared with a naive seasonal model. In the first approach, predictive forecasting models were fitted with 7-day averages of each potential predictor, and then a subsequent multivariable model is constructed. In the second strategy, an exhaustive search of the best fitting models between possible combinations of lags (0-14 days) of all the environmental effects on asthma admission was conducted. Three models were considered: a base model (seasonal effects), contrasted with a 7-day average model and a selected lags model (weather and air quality effects). Season is the best predictor of asthma admissions. The 7-day average and seasonal models were trivial to implement. The selected lags model was computationally intensive, but of no real value over much more easily implemented models. Seasonal factors can predict daily hospital asthma admissions in London, and there is a little evidence that additional weather and air quality information would add to forecast accuracy.

  4. Weekly Cycles in Daily Report Data: An Overlooked Issue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yu; West, Stephen G

    2016-10-01

    Daily diaries and other everyday experience methods are increasingly used to study relationships between two time-varying variables X and Y. Although daily data potentially often have weekly cyclical patterns (e.g., stress may be higher on weekdays and lower on weekends), the majority of daily diary studies have ignored this possibility. In this study, we investigated the effect of ignoring existing weekly cycles. We reanalyzed an empirical dataset (stress and alcohol consumption) and performed Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the impact of omitting weekly cycles. In the empirical dataset, ignoring cycles led to the inference of a significant within-person X-Y relation whereas modeling cycles suggested that this relationship did not exist. Simulation results indicated that ignoring cycles that existed in both X and Y led to bias in the estimated within-person X-Y relationship. The amount and direction of bias depended on the magnitude of the cycles, magnitude of the true within-person X-Y relation, and synchronization of the cycles. We encourage researchers conducting daily diary studies to address potential weekly cycles in their data. We provide guidelines for detecting and modeling cycles to remove their influence and discuss challenges of causal inference in daily experience studies. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Loneliness, Daily Pain, and Perceptions of Interpersonal Events in Adults with Fibromyalgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Laurie Dempsey; Davis, Mary C.

    2014-01-01

    Objective This study examined whether individual differences in loneliness and/or daily exacerbations in loneliness relate to daily pain and frequency and perception of interpersonal events among individuals with fibromyalgia (FM). Methods 118 participants with FM completed electronic diaries each evening for 21 days to assess the occurrence of positive and negative interpersonal events, event appraisals, and pain. Multilevel modeling was used to examine relations of chronic and transitory loneliness to daily life outcomes, controlling for daily depressive symptoms. Results Chronic and transitory loneliness were associated with more frequent reports of negative and less frequent reports of positive interpersonal daily events, higher daily stress ratings and lower daily enjoyment ratings, and higher daily pain levels. Neither chronic nor transitory loneliness moderated the relations between daily negative events and either stress appraisals or pain. However, both chronic and transitory loneliness moderated the relation between daily positive events and enjoyment appraisals. Specifically, on days of greater numbers of positive events than usual, lonely people had larger boosts in enjoyment than did nonlonely people. Similarly, days with greater than usual numbers of positive events were related to larger boosts in enjoyment if an individual was also experiencing higher than usual loneliness levels. Conclusions Chronic and transient episodes of loneliness are associated with more negative daily social relations and pain. However, boosts in positive events yield greater boosts in day-to-day enjoyment of social relations for lonely versus nonlonely individuals, and during loneliness episodes, a finding that can inform future interventions for individuals with chronic pain. PMID:25180546

  6. Chronic daily headaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fayyaz Ahmed

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Chronic Daily Headache is a descriptive term that includes disorders with headaches on more days than not and affects 4% of the general population. The condition has a debilitating effect on individuals and society through direct cost to healthcare and indirectly to the economy in general. To successfully manage chronic daily headache syndromes it is important to exclude secondary causes with comprehensive history and relevant investigations; identify risk factors that predict its development and recognise its sub-types to appropriately manage the condition. Chronic migraine, chronic tension-type headache, new daily persistent headache and medication overuse headache accounts for the vast majority of chronic daily headaches. The scope of this article is to review the primary headache disorders. Secondary headaches are not discussed except medication overuse headache that often accompanies primary headache disorders. The article critically reviews the literature on the current understanding of daily headache disorders focusing in particular on recent developments in the treatment of frequent headaches.

  7. Exercise and sleep predict personal resources in employees' daily lives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nägel, Inga J; Sonnentag, Sabine

    2013-11-01

    The present study investigates the interaction of exercise and sleep on state-like personal resources in employees' daily lives. Further, the study examines the association between state-like personal resources and emotional exhaustion. We conducted a diary study over five consecutive working days (total of 443 days) with 144 employees who answered daily online surveys after work and before bedtime. Multilevel modeling showed that exercise after work was positively related to the next day's personal resources when sleep duration during the night time was longer compared to other nights. Furthermore, personal resources positively related to lower emotional exhaustion after work on the next day. This study demonstrates that exercise and sleep may help to renew personal resources. Results stress the importance of balancing exercise and sleep in daily life. © 2013 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

  8. SU-E-J-257: A PCA Model to Predict Adaptive Changes for Head&neck Patients Based On Extraction of Geometric Features From Daily CBCT Datasets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chetvertkov, M [Wayne State University, Detroit, MI (United States); Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, MI (United States); Siddiqui, F; Chetty, I; Kim, J; Kumarasiri, A; Liu, C; Gordon, J [Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, MI (United States)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: Using daily cone beam CTs (CBCTs) to develop principal component analysis (PCA) models of anatomical changes in head and neck (H&N) patients and to assess the possibility of using these prospectively in adaptive radiation therapy (ART). Methods: Planning CT (pCT) images of 4 H&N patients were deformed to model several different systematic changes in patient anatomy during the course of the radiation therapy (RT). A Pinnacle plugin was used to linearly interpolate the systematic change in patient for the 35 fraction RT course and to generate a set of 35 synthetic CBCTs. Each synthetic CBCT represents the systematic change in patient anatomy for each fraction. Deformation vector fields (DVFs) were acquired between the pCT and synthetic CBCTs with random fraction-to-fraction changes were superimposed on the DVFs. A patient-specific PCA model was built using these DVFs containing systematic plus random changes. It was hypothesized that resulting eigenDVFs (EDVFs) with largest eigenvalues represent the major anatomical deformations during the course of treatment. Results: For all 4 patients, the PCA model provided different results depending on the type and size of systematic change in patient’s body. PCA was more successful in capturing the systematic changes early in the treatment course when these were of a larger scale with respect to the random fraction-to-fraction changes in patient’s anatomy. For smaller scale systematic changes, random changes in patient could completely “hide” the systematic change. Conclusion: The leading EDVF from the patientspecific PCA models could tentatively be identified as a major systematic change during treatment if the systematic change is large enough with respect to random fraction-to-fraction changes. Otherwise, leading EDVF could not represent systematic changes reliably. This work is expected to facilitate development of population-based PCA models that can be used to prospectively identify significant

  9. SU-E-J-257: A PCA Model to Predict Adaptive Changes for Head&neck Patients Based On Extraction of Geometric Features From Daily CBCT Datasets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chetvertkov, M; Siddiqui, F; Chetty, I; Kim, J; Kumarasiri, A; Liu, C; Gordon, J

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Using daily cone beam CTs (CBCTs) to develop principal component analysis (PCA) models of anatomical changes in head and neck (H&N) patients and to assess the possibility of using these prospectively in adaptive radiation therapy (ART). Methods: Planning CT (pCT) images of 4 H&N patients were deformed to model several different systematic changes in patient anatomy during the course of the radiation therapy (RT). A Pinnacle plugin was used to linearly interpolate the systematic change in patient for the 35 fraction RT course and to generate a set of 35 synthetic CBCTs. Each synthetic CBCT represents the systematic change in patient anatomy for each fraction. Deformation vector fields (DVFs) were acquired between the pCT and synthetic CBCTs with random fraction-to-fraction changes were superimposed on the DVFs. A patient-specific PCA model was built using these DVFs containing systematic plus random changes. It was hypothesized that resulting eigenDVFs (EDVFs) with largest eigenvalues represent the major anatomical deformations during the course of treatment. Results: For all 4 patients, the PCA model provided different results depending on the type and size of systematic change in patient’s body. PCA was more successful in capturing the systematic changes early in the treatment course when these were of a larger scale with respect to the random fraction-to-fraction changes in patient’s anatomy. For smaller scale systematic changes, random changes in patient could completely “hide” the systematic change. Conclusion: The leading EDVF from the patientspecific PCA models could tentatively be identified as a major systematic change during treatment if the systematic change is large enough with respect to random fraction-to-fraction changes. Otherwise, leading EDVF could not represent systematic changes reliably. This work is expected to facilitate development of population-based PCA models that can be used to prospectively identify significant

  10. Daily and annually variation of unstimulated whole saliva flow rate and pH and their relation with body profile in healthy young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foglio-Bonda, P L; Migliario, M; Rocchetti, V; Pattarino, F; Foglio-Bonda, A

    2013-09-01

    To analyse pH and flow rate (FR) of unstimulated whole saliva (UWS), detecting their possible correlations both among themselves and with body profile; in addition to identify daily, annually and gender differences. Eighty-one (47 ♀; 34 ♂) healthy young adults (mean age 22.7±4.09 years old) were enrolled. Saliva was sampled using spitting method. The data were statistically analysed using Pearson's coefficient, ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis test, Student's t test or the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test. The mean UWS/FR was 0.643 ml/min (range 0.164-1.656 ml/min; percentile 25 = 0.400 ml/min; percentile 50 = 0.643 ml/min, percentile 75 = 0.832 ml/min; median = 0.590 ml/min) and no significant differences were found in gender. The mean UWS/pH was 6.95 (range 6.06-7.91, S.D. 0.28, RSD % 4.08): pH was higher in males (7.02) than females (6.92; p = 0.009). The UWS/FR increased almost steadily during the day: from 0.593 ml/min at 9:00 to 0.669 ml/min at 17:00 (p = 0.04), the greatest increase was found between 9:00 and 11:00. Through the seasons the UWS/FR decreased from summer to spring with a difference of 0.048 ml/min (p pH showed a slight increase between 9:00 and 17:00 (p pH among the seasons (max. 0.09; p pH was found (R = 0.20; p = 0.008). We did not find correlations between body profile vs UWS/FR or pH. UWS/FR varies more widely than UWS/pH: maintaining a proper acid/base balance is an essential factor for the homeostasis of the oral cavity and probably this would explain the reason for the lack of the variables evaluated influencing UWS/pH.

  11. Profissionais do sexo: sentidos produzidos no cotidiano de trabalho e aspectos relacionados ao HIV Sex professionals: HIV-related aspects and generating meanings in daily work

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Gomes Esposito

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Nesta pesquisa qualitativa foi analisado o processo de construção da subjetividade de nove profissionais do sexo entrevistadas, apreendendo o processo de produção de sentidos relacionados à contextualização do HIV em seu cotidiano de trabalho. Destas, quatro eram soropositivas. Foram identificados e analisados sete núcleos de significado (Família como desencadeadora e mantedora da atividade de profissional do sexo; Identidades diversas nos diferentes ambientes freqüentados: cisão trabalho x afetividade; Contradições vividas acerca do trabalho; AIDS como fator limitante dos prazeres em suas vidas e como empecilho para a continuidade do exercício de suas atividades; Fatores associados ao aumento da vulnerabilidade ao HIV; Serviço de Saúde como facilitador do processo de adesão ao tratamento e Entrevista como propiciadora de intervenções. Enquanto nas entrevistadas soronegativas predominaram sentimentos ambivalentes e contraditórios em relação à atividade, nas soropositivas foi observada uma polarização nos desprazeres desta atividade, inviabilizando sua continuidade após processo de adoecimento desencadeado pela AIDS.This qualitative research analyzes the construction process of subjectivity of nine sex professionals who have been interviewed, grasping the process of generating meanings in the context of HIV in their daily work. Amongst these nine women, four were HIV carriers. Seven nodes of signification were identified and analyzed (Family as an element that causes and maintains their activity as sex professionals; Varying identities in different frequented environments: separation of work from affectivity; Contradictions that were experienced concerning work; AIDS as a limiting factor for pleasure in their lives and as an impediment to continue to practice their activities; Factors associated with the increase of vulnerability to HIV; Health Care as a facilitator in the process of adhering to treatment and the

  12. THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CTL MODEL GUIDED INQUIRI-BASED IN THE TOPIC OF CHEMICALS IN DAILY LIFE TO IMPROVE STUDENTS’ LEARNING OUTCOMES AND ACTIVENESS

    OpenAIRE

    N. R. Fitriani; A. Widiyatmoko; M. Khusniati

    2016-01-01

    Science learning in school can be applied by connecting the material in the learning with real life. However in fact science learning process in SMP Negeri 10 Magelang has not emphasized students’ activity to relate science to real life. Learning science using CTL guided inquiry-based model implement the learning in where teacher provides initial questions related issues or events in everyday life, then students do experiments to prove concepts of science guided by teacher.The purpose of this...

  13. Prevalence of Dental Caries in relation to Body Mass Index, Daily Sugar Intake, and Oral Hygiene Status in 12-Year-Old School Children in Mathura City: A Pilot Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prahlad Gupta

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To correlate the prevalence of dental caries to body mass index, daily sugar intake, and oral hygiene status of 12-year-old school children of Mathura city. Material and Methods. The study design was cross-sectional and included 100 school children aged 12 years (n=50 boys and n=50 girls who were randomly selected from two schools based upon inclusion and exclusion criteria. Body weight/height was recorded and BMI was calculated and plotted on CDC-BMI for age growth charts/curves for boys and girls to obtain percentile ranking. Dental caries was recorded using WHO criteria. Oral hygiene status of the study subjects was assessed using oral hygiene index-simplified. Data regarding the daily sugar intake was recorded using 24-hour recall diet frequency chart. The data obtained was analysed using SPSS version 11.5 for windows. Result. Only 27 subjects were affected by caries. The mean DMFT/dmft was 0.37 ± 0.79 and 0.12 ± 0.60, respectively. Statistical analysis by means of a logistic regression model revealed that only oral hygiene status had a significant effect on caries prevalence (OR = 5.061, P=0.004, whereas daily sugar intake and body mass index had no significant effect. Conclusion. From the analysis, it was concluded that oral hygiene status had a significant effect on caries prevalence of 12-year-old school children of Mathura city.

  14. Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily), Version 3

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily) dataset integrates daily climate observations from approximately 30 different data sources. Version 3...

  15. ORCHIDEE-PEAT (revision 4596, a model for northern peatland CO2, water, and energy fluxes on daily to annual scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Qiu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Peatlands store substantial amounts of carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We present a modified version of the Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE land surface model for simulating the hydrology, surface energy, and CO2 fluxes of peatlands on daily to annual timescales. The model includes a separate soil tile in each 0.5° grid cell, defined from a global peatland map and identified with peat-specific soil hydraulic properties. Runoff from non-peat vegetation within a grid cell containing a fraction of peat is routed to this peat soil tile, which maintains shallow water tables. The water table position separates oxic from anoxic decomposition. The model was evaluated against eddy-covariance (EC observations from 30 northern peatland sites, with the maximum rate of carboxylation (Vcmax being optimized at each site. Regarding short-term day-to-day variations, the model performance was good for gross primary production (GPP (r2 =  0.76; Nash–Sutcliffe modeling efficiency, MEF  =  0.76 and ecosystem respiration (ER, r2 =  0.78, MEF  =  0.75, with lesser accuracy for latent heat fluxes (LE, r2 =  0.42, MEF  =  0.14 and and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE, r2 =  0.38, MEF  =  0.26. Seasonal variations in GPP, ER, NEE, and energy fluxes on monthly scales showed moderate to high r2 values (0.57–0.86. For spatial across-site gradients of annual mean GPP, ER, NEE, and LE, r2 values of 0.93, 0.89, 0.27, and 0.71 were achieved, respectively. Water table (WT variation was not well predicted (r2 < 0.1, likely due to the uncertain water input to the peat from surrounding areas. However, the poor performance of WT simulation did not greatly affect predictions of ER and NEE. We found a significant relationship between optimized Vcmax and latitude (temperature, which better reflects the spatial gradients of annual NEE than using an average Vcmax value.

  16. ORCHIDEE-PEAT (revision 4596), a model for northern peatland CO2, water, and energy fluxes on daily to annual scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Chunjing; Zhu, Dan; Ciais, Philippe; Guenet, Bertrand; Krinner, Gerhard; Peng, Shushi; Aurela, Mika; Bernhofer, Christian; Brümmer, Christian; Bret-Harte, Syndonia; Chu, Housen; Chen, Jiquan; Desai, Ankur R.; Dušek, Jiří; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Fortuniak, Krzysztof; Flanagan, Lawrence B.; Friborg, Thomas; Grygoruk, Mateusz; Gogo, Sébastien; Grünwald, Thomas; Hansen, Birger U.; Holl, David; Humphreys, Elyn; Hurkuck, Miriam; Kiely, Gerard; Klatt, Janina; Kutzbach, Lars; Largeron, Chloé; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima; Lund, Magnus; Lafleur, Peter M.; Li, Xuefei; Mammarella, Ivan; Merbold, Lutz; Nilsson, Mats B.; Olejnik, Janusz; Ottosson-Löfvenius, Mikaell; Oechel, Walter; Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Peichl, Matthias; Pirk, Norbert; Peltola, Olli; Pawlak, Włodzimierz; Rasse, Daniel; Rinne, Janne; Shaver, Gaius; Schmid, Hans Peter; Sottocornola, Matteo; Steinbrecher, Rainer; Sachs, Torsten; Urbaniak, Marek; Zona, Donatella; Ziemblinska, Klaudia

    2018-02-01

    Peatlands store substantial amounts of carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We present a modified version of the Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model for simulating the hydrology, surface energy, and CO2 fluxes of peatlands on daily to annual timescales. The model includes a separate soil tile in each 0.5° grid cell, defined from a global peatland map and identified with peat-specific soil hydraulic properties. Runoff from non-peat vegetation within a grid cell containing a fraction of peat is routed to this peat soil tile, which maintains shallow water tables. The water table position separates oxic from anoxic decomposition. The model was evaluated against eddy-covariance (EC) observations from 30 northern peatland sites, with the maximum rate of carboxylation (Vcmax) being optimized at each site. Regarding short-term day-to-day variations, the model performance was good for gross primary production (GPP) (r2 = 0.76; Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency, MEF = 0.76) and ecosystem respiration (ER, r2 = 0.78, MEF = 0.75), with lesser accuracy for latent heat fluxes (LE, r2 = 0.42, MEF = 0.14) and and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE, r2 = 0.38, MEF = 0.26). Seasonal variations in GPP, ER, NEE, and energy fluxes on monthly scales showed moderate to high r2 values (0.57-0.86). For spatial across-site gradients of annual mean GPP, ER, NEE, and LE, r2 values of 0.93, 0.89, 0.27, and 0.71 were achieved, respectively. Water table (WT) variation was not well predicted (r2 < 0.1), likely due to the uncertain water input to the peat from surrounding areas. However, the poor performance of WT simulation did not greatly affect predictions of ER and NEE. We found a significant relationship between optimized Vcmax and latitude (temperature), which better reflects the spatial gradients of annual NEE than using an average Vcmax value.

  17. Daily Autonomy Support and Sexual Identity Disclosure Predicts Daily Mental and Physical Health Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legate, Nicole; Ryan, Richard M; Rogge, Ronald D

    2017-06-01

    Using a daily diary methodology, we examined how social environments support or fail to support sexual identity disclosure, and associated mental and physical health outcomes. Results showed that variability in disclosure across the diary period related to greater psychological well-being and fewer physical symptoms, suggesting potential adaptive benefits to selectively disclosing. A multilevel path model indicated that perceiving autonomy support in conversations predicted more disclosure, which in turn predicted more need satisfaction, greater well-being, and fewer physical symptoms that day. Finally, mediation analyses revealed that disclosure and need satisfaction explained why perceiving autonomy support in a conversation predicted greater well-being and fewer physical symptoms. That is, perceiving autonomy support in conversations indirectly predicted greater wellness through sexual orientation disclosure, along with feeling authentic and connected in daily interactions with others. Discussion highlights the role of supportive social contexts and everyday opportunities to disclose in affecting sexual minority mental and physical health.

  18. Intent to quit among daily and non-daily college student smokers

    OpenAIRE

    Pinsker, E. A.; Berg, C. J.; Nehl, E. J.; Prokhorov, A. V.; Buchanan, T. S.; Ahluwalia, J. S.

    2012-01-01

    Given the high prevalence of young adult smoking, we examined (i) psychosocial factors and substance use among college students representing five smoking patterns and histories [non-smokers, quitters, native non-daily smokers (i.e. never daily smokers), converted non-daily smokers (i.e. former daily smokers) and daily smokers] and (ii) smoking category as it relates to readiness to quit among current smokers. Of the 4438 students at six Southeast colleges who completed an online survey, 69.7%...

  19. Modeling spray drift and runoff-related inputs of pesticides to receiving water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xuyang; Luo, Yuzhou; Goh, Kean S

    2018-03-01

    Pesticides move to surface water via various pathways including surface runoff, spray drift and subsurface flow. Little is known about the relative contributions of surface runoff and spray drift in agricultural watersheds. This study develops a modeling framework to address the contribution of spray drift to the total loadings of pesticides in receiving water bodies. The modeling framework consists of a GIS module for identifying drift potential, the AgDRIFT model for simulating spray drift, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for simulating various hydrological and landscape processes including surface runoff and transport of pesticides. The modeling framework was applied on the Orestimba Creek Watershed, California. Monitoring data collected from daily samples were used for model evaluation. Pesticide mass deposition on the Orestimba Creek ranged from 0.08 to 6.09% of applied mass. Monitoring data suggests that surface runoff was the major pathway for pesticide entering water bodies, accounting for 76% of the annual loading; the rest 24% from spray drift. The results from the modeling framework showed 81 and 19%, respectively, for runoff and spray drift. Spray drift contributed over half of the mass loading during summer months. The slightly lower spray drift contribution as predicted by the modeling framework was mainly due to SWAT's under-prediction of pesticide mass loading during summer and over-prediction of the loading during winter. Although model simulations were associated with various sources of uncertainties, the overall performance of the modeling framework was satisfactory as evaluated by multiple statistics: for simulation of daily flow, the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) ranged from 0.61 to 0.74 and the percent bias (PBIAS) runoff in receiving waters and the design of management practices for mitigating pesticide exposure within a watershed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  20. Negotiation as a Model for Teaching Public Relations Professionalism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders, Martha Dunagin; Perrigo, Eileen

    1998-01-01

    Shows that negotiation provides an effective model for teaching public relations professionalism. Describes how two professors in a public relations class used a negotiation model to teach students to simultaneously balance the two components of professionalism: ethical considerations and pragmatic, problem-solving measures. (SR)

  1. The whole spectrum of alcohol-related changes in the CNS. Practical MR and CT imaging guidelines for daily clinical use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keil, V.C.; Greschus, S.; Hadizadeh, D.R.; Schild, H.H.; Schneider, C.

    2015-01-01

    Alcohol addiction is the most common drug addiction. Alcohol passes both the placenta as well as the blood-brain barrier and is in multiple ways neurotoxic. Liver diseases and other systemic alcohol-related diseases cause secondary damage to the CNS. Especially in adolescents, even a single episode of severe alcohol intoxication (''binge drinking'') may result in life-threatening neurological consequences. Alcohol-related brain and spinal cord diseases derive from multiple causes including impairment of the cellular metabolism, often aggravated by hypovitaminosis, altered neurotransmission, myelination and synaptogenesis as well as alterations in gene expression. Modern radiological diagnostics, MRI in particular, can detect the resulting alterations in the CNS with a high sensitivity. Morphological aspects often strongly correlate with clinical symptoms of the patient. It is less commonly known that many diseases considered as ''typically alcohol-related'', such as Wernicke's encephalopathy, are to a large extent not alcohol-induced. Visible CNS alterations are thus non-pathognomonic and demand careful evaluation of differential diagnoses. This review article elucidates the pathogenesis, clinical aspects and radiological image features of the most common alcohol-related CNS diseases and their differential diagnoses.

  2. Modelling gastric evacuation without meal size as a variable. A model applicable for the estimation of daily ration of cod (Gadus morhua L.) in the field

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Temming, Axel; Andersen, Niels Gerner

    1994-01-01

    S=stomach content, T=time after ingestion, R and B=constants. This model allows for various curve shapes, including linear (B=O) and exponential (B=1), and the curve shape (B) was estimated from the data. Meal size was included in the model by modifying the constant R=R′ × MD, with M=meal size...... in weight and D=constant. When meal size was included in the model, the resulting B values were strongly dependent on the food type and the estimated D values were negatively correlated with B: capelin, B=1.37, D= -1.16; herring, B=0.84, D= -0.57; and prawn, B=0.35, D= -0.14. When meal size was excluded...

  3. The impact of urban open space and 'lift-up' building design on building intake fraction and daily pollutant exposure in idealized urban models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sha, Chenyuan; Wang, Xuemei; Lin, Yuanyuan; Fan, Yifan; Chen, Xi; Hang, Jian

    2018-08-15

    Sustainable urban design is an effective way to improve urban ventilation and reduce vehicular pollutant exposure to urban residents. This paper investigated the impacts of urban open space and 'lift-up' building design on vehicular CO (carbon monoxide) exposure in typical three-dimensional (3D) urban canopy layer (UCL) models under neutral atmospheric conditions. The building intake fraction (IF) represents the fraction of total vehicular pollutant emissions inhaled by residents when they stay at home. The building daily CO exposure (E t ) means the extent of human beings' contact with CO within one day indoor at home. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations integrating with these two concepts were performed to solve turbulent flow and assess vehicular CO exposure to urban residents. CFD technique with the standard k-ε model was successfully validated by wind tunnel data. The initial numerical UCL model consists of 5-row and 5-column (5×5) cubic buildings (building height H=street width W=30m) with four approaching wind directions (θ=0°, 15°, 30°, 45°). In Group I, one of the 25 building models is removed to attain urban open space settings. In Group II, the first floor (Lift-up1), or second floor (Lift-up2), or third floor (Lift-up3) of all buildings is elevated respectively to create wind pathways through buildings. Compared to the initial case, urban open space can slightly or significantly reduce pollutant exposure for urban residents. As θ=30° and 45°, open space settings are more effective to reduce pollutant exposure than θ=0° and 15°.The pollutant dilution near or surrounding open space and in its adjacent downstream regions is usually enhanced. Lift-up1 and Lift-up2 experience much greater pollutant exposure reduction in all wind directions than Lift-up3 and open space. Although further investigations are still required to provide practical guidelines, this study is one of the first attempts for reducing urban pollutant exposure by

  4. Cost-effectiveness of insulin pumps compared with multiple daily injections both provided with structured education for adults with type 1 diabetes: a health economic analysis of the Relative Effectiveness of Pumps over Structured Education (REPOSE) randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollard, Daniel John; Brennan, Alan; Dixon, Simon; Waugh, Norman; Elliott, Jackie; Heller, Simon; Lee, Ellen; Campbell, Michael; Basarir, Hasan; White, David

    2018-04-07

    To assess the long-term cost-effectiveness of insulin pumps and Dose Adjustment for Normal Eating (pumps+DAFNE) compared with multiple daily insulin injections and DAFNE (MDI+DAFNE) for adults with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) in the UK. We undertook a cost-utility analysis using the Sheffield Type 1 Diabetes Policy Model and data from the Relative Effectiveness of Pumps over Structured Education (REPOSE) trial to estimate the lifetime incidence of diabetic complications, intervention-based resource use and associated effects on costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). All economic analyses took a National Health Service and personal social services perspective and discounted costs and QALYs at 3.5% per annum. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed on the base case. Further uncertainties in the cost of pumps and the evidence used to inform the model were explored using scenario analyses. Eight diabetes centres in England and Scotland. Adults with T1DM who were eligible to receive a structured education course and did not have a strong clinical indication or a preference for a pump. Pumps+DAFNE. MDI+DAFNE. Incremental costs, incremental QALYs gained and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Compared with MDI+DAFNE, pumps+DAFNE was associated with an incremental discounted lifetime cost of +£18 853 (95% CI £6175 to £31 645) and a gain in discounted lifetime QALYs of +0.13 (95% CI -0.70 to +0.96). The base case mean ICER was £142 195 per QALY gained. The probability of pump+DAFNE being cost-effective using a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20 000 per QALY gained was 14.0%. All scenario and subgroup analyses examined indicated that the ICER was unlikely to fall below £30 000 per QALY gained. Our analysis of the REPOSE data suggests that routine use of pumps in adults without an immediate clinical need for a pump, as identified by National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, would not be cost-effective. ISRCTN61215213

  5. Two Studies on Twitter Networks and Tweet Content in Relation to Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS): Conversation, Information, and 'Diary of a Daily Life'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemsley, Bronwyn; Palmer, Stuart

    2016-01-01

    To date, there is no research examining how adults with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) or Motor Neurone Disease (MND) and severe communication disability use Twitter, nor the use of Twitter in relation to ALS/MND beyond its use for fundraising and raising awareness. In this paper we (a) outline a rationale for the use of Twitter as a method of communication and information exchange for adults with ALS/MND, (b) detail multiple qualitative and quantitative methods used to analyse Twitter networks and tweet content in the our studies, and (c) present the results of two studies designed to provide insights on the use of Twitter by an adult with ALS/MND and by #ALS and #MND hashtag communities in Twitter. We will also discuss findings across the studies, implications for health service providers in Twitter, and directions for future Twitter research in relation to ALS/MND.

  6. A Comparison of Three Data Models for Text Storage and Retrieval Systems: The Relational Model Revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hertzum, Morten

    1994-01-01

    : (1) the text model, also known as the inverted file approach, (2) the hypertext model, and (3) the relational model. In the design of the relational model changeability was a key consideration, but more often it is sacrificed to save development resources or improve performance. As it is not uncommon...... to see successful TSARS exist for 15-20 years and be subject to manifold changes during their lifetime, it is the relational model which is considered for use in the unified toolkit. It seems as if the relational model can be enhanced to incorporate the text model and the hypertext model...

  7. Observability of market daily volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petroni, Filippo; Serva, Maurizio

    2016-02-01

    We study the price dynamics of 65 stocks from the Dow Jones Composite Average from 1973 to 2014. We show that it is possible to define a Daily Market Volatility σ(t) which is directly observable from data. This quantity is usually indirectly defined by r(t) = σ(t) ω(t) where the r(t) are the daily returns of the market index and the ω(t) are i.i.d. random variables with vanishing average and unitary variance. The